WorldWideScience

Sample records for dynamic vulnerability map

  1. Applicability of vulnerability maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E.

    1989-01-01

    A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given

  2. Groundwater vulnerability maps for pesticides for Flanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, Jef; Joris, Ingeborg; Bronders, Jan; Van Looy, Stijn; Vanden Boer, Dirk; Heuvelmans, Griet; Seuntjens, Piet

    2017-04-01

    Pesticides are increasingly being detected in shallow groundwater and and are one of the main causes of the poor chemical status of phreatic groundwater bodies in Flanders. There is a need for groundwater vulnerability maps in order to design monitoring strategies and land-use strategies for sensitive areas such as drinking water capture zones. This research focuses on the development of generic vulnerability maps for pesticides for Flanders and a tool to calculate substance-specific vulnerability maps at the scale of Flanders and at the local scale. (1) The generic vulnerability maps are constructed using an index based method in which maps of the main contributing factors in soil and saturated zone to high concentrations of pesticides in groundwater are classified and overlain. Different weights are assigned to the contributing factors according to the type of pesticide (low/high mobility, low/high persistence). Factors that are taken into account are the organic matter content and texture of soil, depth of the unsaturated zone, organic carbon and redox potential of the phreatic groundwater and thickness and conductivity of the phreatic layer. (2) Secondly a tool is developed that calculates substance-specific vulnerability maps for Flanders using a hybrid approach where a process-based leaching model GeoPEARL is combined with vulnerability indices that account for dilution in the phreatic layer. The GeoPEARL model is parameterized for Flanders in 1434 unique combinations of soil properties, climate and groundwater depth. Leaching is calculated for a 20 year period for each 50 x 50 m gridcell in Flanders. (3) At the local scale finally, a fully process-based approach is applied combining GeoPEARL leaching calculations and flowline calculations of pesticide transport in the saturated zone to define critical zones in the capture zone of a receptor such as a drinking water well or a river segment. The three approaches are explained more in detail and illustrated

  3. Groundwater vulnerability mapping in Guadalajara aquifers system (Western Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizo-Decelis, L. David; Marín, Ana I.; Andreo, Bartolomé

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater vulnerability mapping is a practical tool to implement strategies for land-use planning and sustainable socioeconomic development coherent with groundwater protection. The objective of vulnerability mapping is to identify the most vulnerable zones of catchment areas and to provide criteria for protecting the groundwater used for drinking water supply. The delineation of protection zones in fractured aquifers is a challenging task due to the heterogeneity and anisotropy of hydraulic conductivities, which makes difficult prediction of groundwater flow organization and flow velocities. Different methods of intrinsic groundwater vulnerability mapping were applied in the Atemajac-Toluquilla groundwater body, an aquifers system that covers around 1300 km2. The aquifer supplies the 30% of urban water resources of the metropolitan area of Guadalajara (Mexico), where over 4.6 million people reside. Study area is located in a complex neotectonic active volcanic region in the Santiago River Basin (Western Mexico), which influences the aquifer system underneath the city. Previous works have defined the flow dynamics and identified the origin of recharge. In addition, the mixture of fresh groundwater with hydrothermal and polluted waters have been estimated. Two main aquifers compose the multilayer system. The upper aquifer is unconfined and consists of sediments and pyroclastic materials. Recharge of this aquifer comes from rainwater and ascending vertical fluids from the lower aquifer. The lower aquifer consists of fractured basalts of Pliocene age. Formerly, the main water source has been the upper unit, which is a porous and unconsolidated unit, which acts as a semi-isotropic aquifer. Intense groundwater usage has resulted in lowering the water table in the upper aquifer. Therefore, the current groundwater extraction is carried out from the deeper aquifer and underlying bedrock units, where fracture flow predominates. Pollution indicators have been reported in

  4. Groundwater Vulnerability Map for South Africa | Musekiwa | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vulnerability of groundwater is a relative, non-measurable and dimensionless property which is based on the concept that some land areas are more vulnerable to groundwater contamination than others. Maps showing groundwater vulnerability assist with the identification of areas more susceptible to contamination than ...

  5. Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex de Sherbinin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability mapping reveals areas that are likely to be at greater risk of climate-related disasters in the future. Through integration of climate, biophysical, and socioeconomic data in an overall vulnerability framework, so-called “hotspots” of vulnerability can be identified. These maps can be used as an aid to targeting adaptation and disaster risk management interventions. This paper reviews vulnerability mapping efforts in West Africa conducted under the USAID-funded African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC project. The focus is on the integration of remotely sensed and socioeconomic data. Data inputs included a range of sensor data (e.g., MODIS NDVI, Landsat, SRTM elevation, DMSP-OLS night-time lights as well as high-resolution poverty, conflict, and infrastructure data. Two basic methods were used, one in which each layer was transformed into standardized indicators in an additive approach, and another in which remote sensing data were used to contextualize the results of composite indicators. We assess the benefits and challenges of data integration, and the lessons learned from these mapping exercises.

  6. Vulnerability maps for Druzba crude oil pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hladik, P.; Hosnedl, P.; Buresova, H.; Corbet, J.

    2012-01-01

    Maps of risk for individual environmental aspects within the protection zone of the Czech part of the Druzba crude oil pipeline (505.7 km) were developed based on a modified 'H and V index' method. Risk data were added into a GIS of the Druzba pipeline so that the system could be used as conceptual material in the field of environmental protection (a base for the new SCADA system). Considered environmental aspects were assessed in terms of their vulnerability. The criteria were defined as the vulnerability of the aquatic environment (surface waters and ground waters), the vulnerability of soil environment and the vulnerability of biotic components of the environment. (authors)

  7. CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, M.; Chokmani, K.; Bernier, M.; Poulin, J.

    2013-12-01

    When a flood affects an urban area, the managers and services responsible for public safety need precise and real time information on the localization of the flooded areas, on the submersion heights in those areas, but also on the vulnerability of people exposed to this hazard. Such information is essential for an effective crisis management. Despite a growing interest in this topic over the last 15 years, the development of flood risk assessment tools mainly focused on quantitative modeling of the monetary damages caused by floods to residential buildings or to critical infrastructures. Little attention was paid to the vulnerability of people exposed to flooding but also to the effects of the failure or destruction of critical infrastructures and residential building on people health and security during the disaster. Moreover, these models do not integrate the dynamic features of the flood (extent, submersion heights) and the evolution of human vulnerability in the same mapping tool. Thus, an accurate and precise evaluation of human risk induced by urban flooding is hardly feasible using such models. This study presents CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas, which fills the actual needs in terms of flood risk evaluation and management. This innovative tool integrates a methodology of flood hazard mapping that simulates, for a given discharge, the associated water level, and subsequently determines the extent of the flooded area and the submersion heights at each point of the flooded area, using a DEM. The dynamics of human vulnerability is then mapped at the household level, according to the characteristics of the flood hazard. Three key components of human vulnerability have been identified and are integrated to CADYRI: 1, the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, estimated by specific socio-economic indicators; 2, the vulnerability of buildings, assessed by their structural features; 3, the vulnerability of

  8. Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baalousha, Husam Musa

    2016-12-01

    Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

  9. Groundwater vulnerability to pollution mapping of Ranchi district using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, R.; Iqbal, J.; Gorai, A. K.; Pathak, G.; Tuluri, F.; Tchounwou, P. B.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The present study demonstrates the integrated approach with GIS and DRASTIC model to derive a groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model considers the seven hydrogeological factors [Depth to water table ( D), net recharge ( R), aquifer media ( A), soil media ( S), topography or slope ( T), impact of vadose zone ( I) and hydraulic Conductivity( C)] for generating the groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model was applied for assessing the groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India. The model was validated by comparing the model output (vulnerability indices) with the observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the study area. The reason behind the selection of nitrate is that the major sources of nitrate in groundwater are anthropogenic in nature. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 wells/tube wells distributed in the study area. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for measuring the nitrate concentrations in groundwater. A sensitivity analysis of the integrated model was performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on groundwater vulnerability index. New weights were computed for each input parameters to understand the influence of individual hydrogeological factors in vulnerability indices in the study area. Aquifer vulnerability maps generated in this study can be used for environmental planning and groundwater management.

  10. Groundwater vulnerability to pollution mapping of Ranchi district using GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, R; Iqbal, J; Gorai, A K; Pathak, G; Tuluri, F; Tchounwou, P B

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater pollution due to anthropogenic activities is one of the major environmental problems in urban and industrial areas. The present study demonstrates the integrated approach with GIS and DRASTIC model to derive a groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model considers the seven hydrogeological factors [Depth to water table ( D ), net recharge ( R ), aquifer media ( A ), soil media ( S ), topography or slope ( T ), impact of vadose zone ( I ) and hydraulic Conductivity( C )] for generating the groundwater vulnerability to pollution map. The model was applied for assessing the groundwater vulnerability to pollution in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, India. The model was validated by comparing the model output (vulnerability indices) with the observed nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the study area. The reason behind the selection of nitrate is that the major sources of nitrate in groundwater are anthropogenic in nature. Groundwater samples were collected from 30 wells/tube wells distributed in the study area. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for measuring the nitrate concentrations in groundwater. A sensitivity analysis of the integrated model was performed to evaluate the influence of single parameters on groundwater vulnerability index. New weights were computed for each input parameters to understand the influence of individual hydrogeological factors in vulnerability indices in the study area. Aquifer vulnerability maps generated in this study can be used for environmental planning and groundwater management.

  11. Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen

    2014-05-01

    Drought vulnerability assessment and mapping in Morocco Authors: Yasmina Imani 1, Ouiam Lahlou 1, Si Bennasser Alaoui 1 Paulo Barbosa 2, Jurgen Vogt 2, Gustavo Naumann 2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II), Rabat Morocco. 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy. In Morocco, nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. They are mostly small subsistent farmers whose production depends almost entirely on rainfall. They are therefore very sensitive to drought episodes that may dramatically affect their incomes. Although, as a consequence of the increasing frequency, length and severity of drought episodes in the late 90's, the Moroccan government decided, to move on from a crisis to a risk management approach, drought management remains in practice mainly reactive and often ineffective. The lack of effectiveness of public policy is in part a consequence of the poor understanding of drought vulnerability at the rural community level, which prevents the development of efficient mitigation actions and adaptation strategies, tailored to the needs and specificities of each rural community. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess and map drought vulnerability at the rural commune level in the Oum Er-Rbia basin which is a very heterogeneous basin, showing a big variability of climates, landscapes, cropping systems and social habits. Agricultural data collected from the provincial and local administrations of Agriculture and socio-economic data from the National Department of Statistics were used to compute a composite vulnerability index (DVI) integrating four different components: (i) the renewable natural capacity, (ii) the economic capacity, (iii) human and civic resources, and (iv) infrastructure and technology. The drought vulnerability maps that were derived from the computation of the DVI shows that except very specific areas, most of the Oum er Rbia

  12. CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) Mapping Dashboard

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The interactive maps are visual representations of the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Data were extracted from the US Census and the American Community Survey.

  13. Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esterhuyse, Surina; Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article.

  14. Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elçi, Alper

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Prashant; Bansod, Baban K.S.; Debnath, Sanjit K.; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Ghanshyam, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models have been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper

  16. Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Bansod, Baban K.S.; Debnath, Sanjit K. [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Thakur, Praveen Kumar [Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (ISRO), Dehradun 248001 (India); Ghanshyam, C. [CSIR-Central Scientific Instruments Organisation, Chandigarh 160030 (India); Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030 (India)

    2015-02-15

    Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models have been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.

  17. Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najihah, R; Effendi, D M; Hairunnisa, M A; Masiri, K

    2014-01-01

    The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters

  18. Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

    2014-02-01

    The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

  19. Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmine R Lee

    Full Text Available Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

  20. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  1. GIS based Hydrogeological Vulnerability Mapping of Groundwater Resources in Jerash Area-Jordan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammouri, N [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Hashemite University, Zarqa (Jordan); El-Naqa, A [Department of Water Management and Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Hashemite University, Zarqa (Jordan)

    2008-04-15

    This paper presents groundwater vulnerability mapping for Jerash area, north Jordan generated using EPIK and DRASTIC models. These models have been implemented using GIS to delineate groundwater protection zones and to suggest a protection plan to improve groundwater quality of the major springs and wells. Most of the groundwater resources in the study area are polluted and bacteria and nitrate levels are high. Different sources of groundwater pollution have been identified. Domestic wastewater is considered as a major source of pollution. Urban runoff, fertilizers from agricultural return flows and solid waste disposal appear to be secondary sources. The most relevant vulnerability class of EPIK map is very high which accounts for about 41 % of the total area. While in the DRASTIC vulnerability map, areas with high vulnerability were only about 23 % of the total area. There is a good correlation between vulnerability maps obtained from both models with microbiological and chemical pollution evidences. There is also a good agreement between the areas classified as highly vulnerable and those that have high levels of pollution. [Spanish] El estudio de vulnerabilidad de aguas subterraneas en la region de Yerash, Jordania fue obtenido mediante las metodologias de EPIK y DRASTIC. Se uso GIS para mapear las zonas protegidas y para sugerir un plan de proteccion para mejorar la calidad del agua subterranea en los principales manantiales y pozos. Los niveles de contaminacion bacteriana y de nitratos son elevados. El efluente domestico es la fuente mas importante de contaminacion; vienen en segundo lugar la precipitacion en zonas urbanas, los fertilizantes agricolas y los desechos solidos. En el mapa de EPIK, la vulnerabilidad extrema abarca hasta 41% del area total; en cambio, en el mapa de DRASTIC las areas de alta vulnerabilidad ocupan solo un 23% del area. La correlacion de los datos de contaminacion microbiana y quimica con ambos mapas der vulnerabilidad es buena

  2. Dynamic map labeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Been, Ken; Daiches, Eli; Yap, Chee

    2006-01-01

    We address the problem of filtering, selecting and placing labels on a dynamic map, which is characterized by continuous zooming and panning capabilities. This consists of two interrelated issues. The first is to avoid label popping and other artifacts that cause confusion and interrupt navigation, and the second is to label at interactive speed. In most formulations the static map labeling problem is NP-hard, and a fast approximation might have O(nlogn) complexity. Even this is too slow during interaction, when the number of labels shown can be several orders of magnitude less than the number in the map. In this paper we introduce a set of desiderata for "consistent" dynamic map labeling, which has qualities desirable for navigation. We develop a new framework for dynamic labeling that achieves the desiderata and allows for fast interactive display by moving all of the selection and placement decisions into the preprocessing phase. This framework is general enough to accommodate a variety of selection and placement algorithms. It does not appear possible to achieve our desiderata using previous frameworks. Prior to this paper, there were no formal models of dynamic maps or of dynamic labels; our paper introduces both. We formulate a general optimization problem for dynamic map labeling and give a solution to a simple version of the problem. The simple version is based on label priorities and a versatile and intuitive class of dynamic label placements we call "invariant point placements". Despite these restrictions, our approach gives a useful and practical solution. Our implementation is incorporated into the G-Vis system which is a full-detail dynamic map of the continental USA. This demo is available through any browser.

  3. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

    2004-12-01

    There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

  4. Intrinsic vulnerability map of underground waters in an area of 60 km around the Tricastin CNPE - Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The authors report the updating of the non-saturated area (ZNS), and therefore of the vulnerability, by means of a recent improvement of knowledge of alluvial sheet piezometry in the south of the Tricastin nuclear power plant site, and the harmonization of this locally updated map with previous versions of the vulnerability map (2007 and 2009), in order to produce an updated vulnerability map for an area of 60 km around the Tricastin nuclear power plant. Thus, they firstly report the updating of the thickness grid of non saturated area by means of a processing of the piezometric map, and secondly a calculation of the simplified vulnerability

  5. Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in Livelihood Vulnerability Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murungweni, C.; Wijk, van M.T.; Andersson, J.A.; Smaling, E.M.A.; Giller, K.E.

    2011-01-01

    Feedback mechanisms are important in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems, as well as in the analysis of livelihoods, but how to evaluate systems with direct feedbacks has been a great challenge. We applied fuzzy cognitive mapping, a tool that allows analysis of

  6. Mapping social-ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiault, Lauric; Marshall, Paul; Gelcich, Stefan; Collin, Antoine; Chlous, Frédérique; Claudet, Joachim

    2018-04-01

    An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social-ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social-ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social-ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social-ecological vulnerability based on information on human-nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small-scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social-ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human-nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social-ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory

  7. Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

    2007-12-07

    A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

  8. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez L, D

    2009-01-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  9. Spatial analysis and modeling to assess and map current vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez L, D, E-mail: dlopez@centrogeo.org.m [Centro de Investigacion en GeografIa y Geomatica, Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo A.C., Contoy 137, col. Lomas de Padierna, del Tlalpan, Maxico D.F (Mexico)

    2009-11-01

    One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva - Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.

  10. Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

  11. Mapping community vulnerability to poaching: A whole-of-society approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schmitz, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available in Cartography and GIScience Mapping community vulnerability to poaching: A whole-of-society approach Peter M.U. Schmitz,1,2,3 Duarte Gonçalves,4 and Merin Jacob4 1. CSIR Built Environment, Meiring Naude Rd, Brummeria, Pretoria, South Africa; pschmitz...

  12. Karst groundwater protection: First application of a Pan-European Approach to vulnerability, hazard and risk mapping in the Sierra de Libar (Southern Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreo, Bartolome; Goldscheider, Nico; Vadillo, Inaki; Vias, Jesus Maria; Neukum, Christoph; Sinreich, Michael; Jimenez, Pablo; Brechenmacher, Julia; Carrasco, Francisco; Hoetzl, Heinz; Perles, Maria Jesus; Zwahlen, Francois

    2006-01-01

    The European COST action 620 proposed a comprehensive approach to karst groundwater protection, comprising methods of intrinsic and specific vulnerability mapping, validation of vulnerability maps, hazard and risk mapping. This paper presents the first application of all components of this Pan-European Approach to the Sierra de Libar, a karst hydrogeology system in Andalusia, Spain. The intrinsic vulnerability maps take into account the hydrogeological characteristics of the area but are independent from specific contaminant properties. Two specific vulnerability maps were prepared for faecal coliforms and BTEX. These maps take into account the specific properties of these two groups of contaminants and their interaction with the karst hydrogeological system. The vulnerability assessment was validated by means of tracing tests, hydrological, hydrochemical and isotope methods. The hazard map shows the localization of potential contamination sources resulting from human activities, and evaluates those according to their dangerousness. The risk of groundwater contamination depends on the hazards and the vulnerability of the aquifer system. The risk map for the Sierra de Libar was thus created by overlaying the hazard and vulnerability maps

  13. Karst groundwater protection: First application of a Pan-European Approach to vulnerability, hazard and risk mapping in the Sierra de Libar (Southern Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreo, Bartolome [Group of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Science, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga (Spain)]. E-mail: Andreo@uma.es; Goldscheider, Nico [Centre of Hydrogeology, University of Neuchatel, 11 rue Emile-Argand, CH-2007 Neuchatel (Switzerland); Vadillo, Inaki [Group of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Science, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Vias, Jesus Maria [Group of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Science, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Neukum, Christoph [Department of Applied Geology, University of Karlsruhe, Kaiserstrasse, 12, D-76128 Karlsruhe (Germany); Sinreich, Michael [Centre of Hydrogeology, University of Neuchatel, 11 rue Emile-Argand, CH-2007 Neuchatel (Switzerland); Jimenez, Pablo [Group of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Science, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Brechenmacher, Julia [Department of Applied Geology, University of Karlsruhe, Kaiserstrasse, 12, D-76128 Karlsruhe (Germany); Carrasco, Francisco [Group of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Science, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Hoetzl, Heinz [Department of Applied Geology, University of Karlsruhe, Kaiserstrasse, 12, D-76128 Karlsruhe (Germany); Perles, Maria Jesus [Group of Hydrogeology, Faculty of Science, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Zwahlen, Francois [Centre of Hydrogeology, University of Neuchatel, 11 rue Emile-Argand, CH-2007 Neuchatel (Switzerland)

    2006-03-15

    The European COST action 620 proposed a comprehensive approach to karst groundwater protection, comprising methods of intrinsic and specific vulnerability mapping, validation of vulnerability maps, hazard and risk mapping. This paper presents the first application of all components of this Pan-European Approach to the Sierra de Libar, a karst hydrogeology system in Andalusia, Spain. The intrinsic vulnerability maps take into account the hydrogeological characteristics of the area but are independent from specific contaminant properties. Two specific vulnerability maps were prepared for faecal coliforms and BTEX. These maps take into account the specific properties of these two groups of contaminants and their interaction with the karst hydrogeological system. The vulnerability assessment was validated by means of tracing tests, hydrological, hydrochemical and isotope methods. The hazard map shows the localization of potential contamination sources resulting from human activities, and evaluates those according to their dangerousness. The risk of groundwater contamination depends on the hazards and the vulnerability of the aquifer system. The risk map for the Sierra de Libar was thus created by overlaying the hazard and vulnerability maps.

  14. [Health vulnerability mapping in the Community of Madrid (Spain)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramasco-Gutiérrez, Milagros; Heras-Mosteiro, Julio; Garabato-González, Sonsoles; Aránguez-Ruiz, Emiliano; Aguirre Martín-Gil, Ramón

    The Public Health General Directorate of Madrid has developed a health vulnerability mapping methodology to assist regional social health teams in health planning, prioritisation and intervention based on a model of social determinants of health and an equity approach. This process began with the selection of areas with the worst social indicators in health vulnerability. Then, key stakeholders of the region jointly identified priority areas of intervention and developed a consensual plan of action. We present the outcomes of this experience and its connection with theoretical models of asset-based community development, health-integrated georeferencing systems and community health interventions. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Vulnerability mapping in kelud volcano based on village information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisbaron, D. R.; Wijayanti, H.; Iffani, M.; Winastuti, R.; Yudinugroho, M.

    2018-04-01

    Kelud Volcano is a basaltic andesitic stratovolcano, situated at 27 km to the east of Kediri, Indonesia. Historically, Kelud Volcano has erupted with return period of 9-75 years, had caused nearly 160,000 people living in Tulungagung, Blitar and Kediri District to be in high-risk areas. This study aims to map vulnerability towards lava flows in Kediri and Malang using detailed scale. There are four major variables, namely demography, asset, hazard, and land use variables. PGIS (Participatory Geographic Information System) is employed to collect data, while ancillary data is derived from statistics information, interpretation of high resolution satellite imagery and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Data were obtained from field checks and some from high resolution satellite imagery and UAVs. The output of this research is village-based vulnerability information that becomes a valuable input for local stakeholders to improve local preparedness in areas prone to improved disaster resilience. The results indicated that the highest vulnerability to lava flood disaster in Kelud Volcano is owned by Kandangan Hamlet, Pandean Hamlet and Kacangan Hamlet, because these two hamlets are in the dominant high vulnerability position of 3 out of 4 scenarios (economic, social and equal).

  16. Focus on CSIR research in water resources: improved methods for aquifer vulnerability assessments and protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Colvin, C

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessments and Protocols (AVAP) for producing vulnerability maps, taking into account information on soils Groundwater resources are increas- ingly threatened by pollution. The AVAP project was initiated to develop improved... characteristics. Both intrinsic and specific vulnerability are taken into account. The approach used to determine the vulnerability of the in- termediate zone involved the descrip- tion and quantification of the factors that influence vulnerability (unsatu...

  17. Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis of Baluran National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beny Harjadi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Every ecosystem has a different level of susceptibility to environmental disturbances it receives, both from natural factors or anthropogenic disturbance. National Park (NP Baluran is one national park that has a representation of a complete ecosystem that includes upland forest ecosystems, lowland forests, coastal forests, mangroves, savanna and evergreen forest. The objective of this study is to get a formula calculation of vulnerability analysis of constant and dynamic factors. Baluran NP vulnerability assessment to climate change done by looking at the dynamic and fixed factors. Vulnerability remains a vulnerability factor to the condition of the original (control, whereas vulnerability is the vulnerability of the dynamic change factors which affected the condition from the outside. Constant Vulnerability (CV in  Baluran NP dominated resistant conditions (61%, meaning that the geomorphology and other fixed factors (slope and slope direction/aspect, then the condition in Baluran NP sufficiently resilient to climate change. Dynamic Vulnerability (DV is the vulnerability of an area or areas that change because of pressure from external factors. DV is influenced by climatic factors (WI = Wetness Index, soil (SBI = Soil Brightness Index, and vegetation (GI = Greenness Index. DV in  Baluran NP from 1999 to 2010 shifted from the original category of being (84.76% and shifted to the susceptible (59.88%.  The role of remote sensing for the analysis of raster digital system, while the geographic information system to display the results of cartographic maps.

  18. Assessment of intrinsic vulnerability of an alluvial aquifer under anthropogenic pressure: cross comparison of 4 index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models within the Biguglia lagoon watershed (Corsica, France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaunat, Jessy; Huneau, Frédéric; Garel, Emilie; Devos, Alain; Lejeune, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    KEYWORDS: Alluvial aquifer, Vulnerability mapping, Index-based methods, DRASTIC, SINTACS, SI, GOD The geographical position of the Biguglia lagoon watershed south of the Bastia city (80 000 inhabitants), lead to a highly vulnerable hydrosystem setting. This littoral plain is the unique territory available for the urbanisation and for the agriculture activities (cattle breeding). All the activities developed are likely to have a qualitative impact on water infiltration and therefore on groundwater, which is in hydraulic connection with the lagoon system. Beyond this ecological issue, groundwater of this watershed is intensively used as drinking water supply. It appears essential to control the long-term groundwater quality of the Biguglia plain which is the major economic zone of Corsica. Achievement of this issue requires the identification of the areas where the alluvial aquifer is mostly vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. The results given by 4 of the most popular index-based vulnerability mapping methods (DRASTIC, SI, SINTACS and GOD) are compared. The water table, net recharge, aquifer and soils properties, topography, vadose zone and land uses have been precisely mapped and numerically translated in GIS with a 25m precision. 4 final maps were finally compiled according to the weighting factors of each methods. Hydrochemical investigations were also carried out on 30 sampling points (major ions and anthropogenic tracers) to evaluate the effect of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality and also to validate the results of the vulnerability mapping. A comparison between the parametric models shows a significant agreement between the DRASTIC, SINTACS and SI results (2% to 5% of the total area in very low vulnerability class, 10% to 13% in low vulnerability, 16% to 23% in medium vulnerability, 31% to 53% in high vulnerability and 14% to 23% in very high vulnerability). The two first methods are quite similar, which explains the proximity of the

  19. Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lue, Evan; Wilson, John P

    2017-04-01

    Social vulnerability indicators can assist with informing disaster relief preparation. Certain demographic segments of a population may suffer disproportionately during disaster events, and a geographical understanding of them can help to determine where to place strategically logistical assets and to target disaster-awareness outreach endeavours. Records of house fire events and American Red Cross aid provision over a five-year period were mapped for the County of Los Angeles, California, United States, to examine the congruence between actual events and expectations of risk based on vulnerability theory. The geographical context provided by the data was compared with spatially-explicit indicators of vulnerability, such as age, race, and wealth. Fire events were found to occur more frequently in more vulnerable areas, and Red Cross aid was found to have an even stronger relationship to those places. The findings suggest that these indicators speak beyond vulnerability and relate to patterns of fire risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  20. Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in Livelihood Vulnerability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrispen Murungweni

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Feedback mechanisms are important in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems, as well as in the analysis of livelihoods, but how to evaluate systems with direct feedbacks has been a great challenge. We applied fuzzy cognitive mapping, a tool that allows analysis of both direct and indirect feedbacks and can be used to explore the vulnerabilities of livelihoods to identified hazards. We studied characteristics and drivers of rural livelihoods in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area in southern Africa to assess the vulnerability of inhabitants to the different hazards they face. The process involved four steps: (1 surveys and interviews to identify the major livelihood types; (2 description of specific livelihood types in a system format using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs, a semi-quantitative tool that models systems based on people's knowledge; (3 linking variables and drivers in FCMs by attaching weights; and (4 defining and applying scenarios to visualize the effects of drought and changing park boundaries on cash and household food security. FCMs successfully gave information concerning the nature (increase or decrease and magnitude by which a livelihood system changed under different scenarios. However, they did not explain the recovery path in relation to time and pattern (e.g., how long it takes for cattle to return to desired numbers after a drought. Using FCMs revealed that issues of policy, such as changing situations at borders, can strongly aggravate effects of climate change such as drought. FCMs revealed hidden knowledge and gave insights that improved the understanding of the complexity of livelihood systems in a way that is better appreciated by stakeholders.

  1. Visualizing Dynamic Data with Maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mashima, Daisuke; Kobourov, Stephen G; Hu, Yifan

    2012-09-01

    Maps offer a familiar way to present geographic data (continents, countries), and additional information (topography, geology), can be displayed with the help of contours and heat-map overlays. In this paper, we consider visualizing large-scale dynamic relational data by taking advantage of the geographic map metaphor. We describe a map-based visualization system which uses animation to convey dynamics in large data sets, and which aims to preserve the viewer's mental map while also offering readable views at all times. Our system is fully functional and has been used to visualize user traffic on the Internet radio station last.fm, as well as TV-viewing patterns from an IPTV service. All map images in this paper are available in high-resolution at [1] as are several movies illustrating the dynamic visualization.

  2. Creating a high resolution social vulnerability map in support of national decision makers in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Roux, Alize

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The core objective of this study was to create a social vulnerability map based on generally accepted variables that are indicative of drivers of social vulnerability, capturing the unique attributes of South African communities. The paper explains...

  3. Integrated assessment for establishing an oil environmental vulnerability map: case study for the Santos Basin region, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, A F; Abessa, D M S; Fontes, R F C; Silva, G H

    2013-09-15

    The growth of maritime transport and oil exploitation activities may increase the risk of oil spills. Thus, plans and actions to prevent or mitigate impacts are needed to minimize the effects caused by oil. However, tools used worldwide to support contingency plans have not been integrated, thus leading to failure in establishing priority areas. This investigation aimed to develop indices of environmental vulnerability to oil (IEVO), by combining information about environmental sensibility to oil and results of numerical modeling of spilled oil. To achieve that, a case study concerning to oil spills scenarios in a subtropical coastal area was designed, and IEVOs were calculated and presented in maps, in order to make the information about the areas' vulnerability more easily visualized. For summer, the extension of coastline potentially affected by oil was approximately 150 km, and most of the coastline presented medium to high vulnerability. For winter, 230 km coastline would be affected, from which 75% were classified as medium to high vulnerability. Thus, IEVO maps allowed a rapid and clearer interpretation of the vulnerability of the mapped region, facilitating the planning process and the actions in response to an oil spill. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Drought disaster vulnerability mapping of agricultural sector in Bringin District, Semarang Regency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestari, D. R.; Pigawati, B.

    2018-02-01

    Agriculture sector is a sector that is directly affected by drought. The phenomenon of drought disaster on agriculture sector has occurred in Semarang regency. One of districts in Semarang which is affected by drought is Bringin district. Bringin district is a productive agricultural area. However, the district experienced the most severe drought in 2015. The question research of this study is, “How is the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district, Semarang regency?” The purpose of this study is to determine the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector to village units in Bringin district. This study investigated drought vulnerability based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by analyzing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity through mapping process. This study used quantitative approach. There were formulation analysis, scoring analysis, and overlay analysis. Drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district was divided into three categories: low, medium, and high.

  5. Estimating vegetation vulnerability to detect areas prone to land degradation in the Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrenda, Vito; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

    2013-04-01

    Vegetation is one of the key components to study land degradation vulnerability because of the complex interactions and feedbacks that link it to soil. In the Mediterranean region, degradation phenomena are due to a mix of predisposing factors (thin soil horizons, low soil organic matter, increasing aridity, etc.) and bad management practices (overgrazing, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, tourism development). In particular, in areas threatened by degradation processes but still covered by vegetation, large scale soil condition evaluation is a hard task and the detection of stressed vegetation can be useful to identify on-going soil degradation phenomena and to reduce their impacts through interventions for recovery/rehabilitation. In this context the use of satellite time series can increase the efficacy and completeness of the land degradation assessment, providing precious information to understand vegetation dynamics. In order to estimate vulnerability levels in Basilicata (a Mediterranean region of Southern Italy) in the framework of PRO-LAND project (PO-FESR Basilicata 2007-2013), we crossed information on potential vegetation vulnerability with information on photosynthetic activity dynamics. Potential vegetation vulnerability represents the vulnerability related to the type of present cover in terms of fire risk, erosion protection, drought resistance and plant cover distribution. It was derived from an updated land cover map by separately analyzing each factor, and then by combining them to obtain concise information on the possible degradation exposure. The analysis of photosynthetic activity dynamics provides information on the status of vegetation, that is fundamental to discriminate the different vulnerability levels within the same land cover, i.e. the same potential vulnerability. For such a purpose, we analyzed a time series (2000-2010) of a satellite vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite

  6. Demarcation of coastal vulnerability line along the Indian coast

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ajai; Baba, M.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Rajawat, A.S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Ratheesh, R.; Kurian, N.P.; Hameed, S.; Sundar, D.

    been considered. Changes along the shoreline are considered as net impact of dynamic coastal processes and are mapped using multidate satellite data. Vulnerability due to coastal erosion has been assessed based on rate of coastal erosion. Coastal...

  7. Genetic k-means clustering approach for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city: a case study of Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Weifang; Zeng, Weihua

    2013-06-20

    Reducing human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city is a matter of great urgency. Vulnerability mapping is an alternative approach for providing vulnerability-reducing interventions in a region. This study presents a method for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards by using clustering analysis for effective vulnerability reduction. Taking the city of Shanghai as the study area, we measure human exposure to chemical hazards by using the proximity model with additionally considering the toxicity of hazardous substances, and capture the sensitivity and coping capacity with corresponding indicators. We perform an improved k-means clustering approach on the basis of genetic algorithm by using a 500 m × 500 m geographical grid as basic spatial unit. The sum of squared errors and silhouette coefficient are combined to measure the quality of clustering and to determine the optimal clustering number. Clustering result reveals a set of six typical human vulnerability patterns that show distinct vulnerability dimension combinations. The vulnerability mapping of the study area reflects cluster-specific vulnerability characteristics and their spatial distribution. Finally, we suggest specific points that can provide new insights in rationally allocating the limited funds for the vulnerability reduction of each cluster.

  8. Genetic k-Means Clustering Approach for Mapping Human Vulnerability to Chemical Hazards in the Industrialized City: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Zeng

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Reducing human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city is a matter of great urgency. Vulnerability mapping is an alternative approach for providing vulnerability-reducing interventions in a region. This study presents a method for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards by using clustering analysis for effective vulnerability reduction. Taking the city of Shanghai as the study area, we measure human exposure to chemical hazards by using the proximity model with additionally considering the toxicity of hazardous substances, and capture the sensitivity and coping capacity with corresponding indicators. We perform an improved k-means clustering approach on the basis of genetic algorithm by using a 500 m × 500 m geographical grid as basic spatial unit. The sum of squared errors and silhouette coefficient are combined to measure the quality of clustering and to determine the optimal clustering number. Clustering result reveals a set of six typical human vulnerability patterns that show distinct vulnerability dimension combinations. The vulnerability mapping of the study area reflects cluster-specific vulnerability characteristics and their spatial distribution. Finally, we suggest specific points that can provide new insights in rationally allocating the limited funds for the vulnerability reduction of each cluster.

  9. Environmental Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Urban Water Mines (Porto, NW Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Afonso

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary approach was developed to estimate urban groundwater vulnerability to contamination combining hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, subterranean hydrogeotechnics, groundwater ecotoxicology and isotope tracers. Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters in Porto City were used as a case study. Historical and current vulnerability scenarios were compared using hydrogeological GIS-based modelling. Potential contamination sources were mapped around the spring galleries. Most of these were point sources and their potential contamination load was moderate. The ecotoxicological assessment indicated a low acute toxicity potential. Groundwater radionuclides appeared to be mainly controlled by geological factors and biomineralisation. Vulnerability maps suggest that most of the area has a moderate to low vulnerability to contamination. However, some surface sources such as sewage systems cause contamination and contribute to increased vulnerability. This integrated approach was demonstrated to be adequate for a better knowledge of urban hydrogeological processes and their dynamics, and highlighted the importance of a vulnerability assessment in urban areas.

  10. An AHP-derived method for mapping the physical vulnerability of coastal areas at regional scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Le Cozannet

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change at regional scales is now mandatory in France since the adoption of recent laws to support adaptation to climate change. However, there is presently no commonly recognised method to assess accurately how sea level rise will modify coastal processes in the coming decades. Therefore, many assessments of the physical component of coastal vulnerability are presently based on a combined use of data (e.g. digital elevation models, historical shoreline and coastal geomorphology datasets, simple models and expert opinion. In this study, we assess the applicability and usefulness of a multi-criteria decision-mapping method (the analytical hierarchy process, AHP to map physical coastal vulnerability to erosion and flooding in a structured way. We apply the method in two regions of France: the coastal zones of Languedoc-Roussillon (north-western Mediterranean, France and the island of La Réunion (south-western Indian Ocean, notably using the regional geological maps. As expected, the results show not only the greater vulnerability of sand spits, estuaries and low-lying areas near to coastal lagoons in both regions, but also that of a thin strip of erodible cliffs exposed to waves in La Réunion. Despite gaps in knowledge and data, the method is found to provide a flexible and transportable framework to represent and aggregate existing knowledge and to support long-term coastal zone planning through the integration of such studies into existing adaptation schemes.

  11. Dynamics of immune system vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stromberg, Sean P.

    The adaptive immune system can be viewed as a complex system, which adapts, over time, to reflect the history of infections experienced by the organism. Understanding its operation requires viewing it in terms of tradeoffs under constraints and evolutionary history. It typically displays "robust, yet fragile" behavior, meaning common tasks are robust to small changes but novel threats or changes in environment can have dire consequences. In this dissertation we use mechanistic models to study several biological processes: the immune response, the homeostasis of cells in the lymphatic system, and the process that normally prevents autoreactive cells from entering the lymphatic system. Using these models we then study the effects of these processes interacting. We show that the mechanisms that regulate the numbers of cells in the immune system, in conjunction with the immune response, can act to suppress autoreactive cells from proliferating, thus showing quantitatively how pathogenic infections can suppress autoimmune disease. We also show that over long periods of time this same effect can thin the repertoire of cells that defend against novel threats, leading to an age correlated vulnerability. This vulnerability is shown to be a consequence of system dynamics, not due to degradation of immune system components with age. Finally, modeling a specific tolerance mechanism that normally prevents autoimmune disease, in conjunction with models of the immune response and homeostasis we look at the consequences of the immune system mistakenly incorporating pathogenic molecules into its tolerizing mechanisms. The signature of this dynamic matches closely that of the dengue virus system.

  12. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  13. Delineating Groundwater Vulnerability and Protection Zone Mapping in Fractured Rock Masses: Focus on the DISCO Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Meerkhan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Hard-rock catchments are considered to be source of valuable water resources for water supply to inhabitants and ecosystems. The present work aims to develop a groundwater vulnerability approach in the Caldas da Cavaca hydromineral system (Aguiar da Beira, Central Portugal in order to improve the hydrogeological conceptual site model. Different types of information were overlaid, generating several thematic maps to achieve an integrated framework of key sectors in the study site. Thus, a multi-technical approach was used, encompassing field and laboratory techniques, whereby different types of data were collected from fields such as geology, hydrogeology, applied geomorphology and geophysics and hydrogeomechanics, with the fundamental aim of applying the so-called DISCO index method. All of these techniques were successfully performed and an intrinsic groundwater vulnerability to contamination assessment, based on the multicriteria methodology of GOD-S, DRASTIC-Fm, SINTACS, SI and DISCO indexes, was delineated. Geographic Information Systems (GIS provided the basis on which to organize and integrate the databases and to produce all the thematic maps. This multi-technical approach highlights the importance of groundwater vulnerability to contamination mapping as a tool to support hydrogeological conceptualization, contributing to improving the decision-making process regarding water resources management and sustainability.

  14. Nonlinear dynamics of the relativistic standard map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.H.; Horton, W.

    1991-01-01

    Heating and acceleration of charged particles by RF fields have been extensively investigated by the standard map (ST). Thus, it is natural to pose the question asking how the relativistic effects change the nonlinear dynamical behavior described by the classical ST map. The authors show that the speed of light limits the rate of advance of the phase in the relativistic standard map (RST) and introduces KAM surfaces persisting in the high momentum region. The RST map is a two parameter (k, β = ω/kc) family of dynamics reducing to the ST map when β → 0. For β ≠ 0 the relativity suppresses the onset of stochasticity. Chernikov et al. has also reported this effect. They have carried out extensive studies of nonlinear dynamics of the RST map and found very intricate structure of mixing of the higher order periodic orbits and chaotic orbits. They have shown that no matter how its gets chaotic the symmetry properties of the RST map determines its nonlinear dynamical behavior. 1 ref

  15. Dynamics of Open Systems with Affine Maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Da-Jian; Liu Chong-Long; Tong Dian-Min

    2015-01-01

    Many quantum systems of interest are initially correlated with their environments and the reduced dynamics of open systems are an interesting while challenging topic. Affine maps, as an extension of completely positive maps, are a useful tool to describe the reduced dynamics of open systems with initial correlations. However, it is unclear what kind of initial state shares an affine map. In this study, we give a sufficient condition of initial states, in which the reduced dynamics can always be described by an affine map. Our result shows that if the initial states of the combined system constitute a convex set, and if the correspondence between the initial states of the open system and those of the combined system, defined by taking the partial trace, is a bijection, then the reduced dynamics of the open system can be described by an affine map. (paper)

  16. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  17. A geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment of transportation networks against extreme earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kermanshah, A.; Derrible, S.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide a geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method to quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on road networks. The method is applied to two US cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which are susceptible to severe seismic activities. Aided by the recent proliferation of data and the wide adoption of Geography Information Systems (GIS), we use a data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations in road networks. To simulate the extreme earthquake, we remove road sections within “very strong” intensities provided by USGS. Subsequently, we measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: overall properties (length of remaining system); topological indicators (betweenness centrality); accessibility; and travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. The various metrics are then plotted on a Vulnerability Surface (VS), from which the area can be assimilated to an overall vulnerability indicator. This VS approach offers a simple and pertinent method to capture the impacts of extreme earthquake. It can also be useful to planners to assess the robustness of various alternative scenarios in their plans to ensure that cities located in seismic areas are better prepared to face severe earthquakes. - Highlights: • Developed geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment method. • Quantify the impacts of extreme earthquakes on transportation networks. • Data-driven approach using USGS ShakeMaps to determine vulnerable locations. • Measure vulnerability as a percentage drop in four families of metrics: ○Overall properties. ○Topological indicators. ○Accessibility. ○Travel demand using Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) data. • Developed Vulnerability Surface (VS), a new pragmatic vulnerability indicator.

  18. Groundwater vulnerability map for South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chiedza Musekiwa

    Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, ... methods, indicator-based approaches, GIS-based decision support systems and ..... E 2005, 'Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Parameters', European Water, vol.

  19. Dynamics of unidirectionally coupled bistable Henon maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sausedo-Solorio, J.M.; Pisarchik, A.N.

    2011-01-01

    We study dynamics of two bistable Henon maps coupled in a master-slave configuration. In the case of coexistence of two periodic orbits, the slave map evolves into the master map state after transients, which duration determines synchronization time and obeys a -1/2 power law with respect to the coupling strength. This scaling law is almost independent of the map parameter. In the case of coexistence of chaotic and periodic attractors, very complex dynamics is observed, including the emergence of new attractors as the coupling strength is increased. The attractor of the master map always exists in the slave map independently of the coupling strength. For a high coupling strength, complete synchronization can be achieved only for the attractor similar to that of the master map. -- Highlights: → We study dynamics of two bistable Henon maps coupled in a master-slave configuration. → Synchronization time for periodic orbits obeys a -1/2 power law with respect to coupling. → For a high coupling strength, the slave map remains bistable. → Complete synchronization can be achieved only when both maps stay at the same attractor.

  20. Karst groundwater vulnerability mapping to the pollution: Case of Dir springs located between EL KSIBA and Ouaoumana (High Atlas, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alili, L.; Boukdir, A.; Maslouhi, M. R.; Ikhmerdi, H.

    2018-05-01

    The study area is located in the north of the province of Beni Mellal, it covers the Piedmont of the high Atlas between El Ksiba and Ouaoumana. It is characterized by a poorly developed hydrographic network and the presence of very important karstic forms. These forms condition the rapid infiltration to the karstic springs are the subject of this study. In this work we presented a method of mapping the vulnerability to pollution of Karstic springs located between El Ksiba and Ouaoumana. To do this, we have introduced a vulnerability index called F which takes into account four parameters (EPIK): Development of the Epikarst, importance of the protective cover, infiltration conditions and development of the Karst network. The overlay of the thematic maps of these parameters through a GIS software (ArcGIS) gave us a map of the vulnerability to contamination on the whole hydrogeological basin of the springs.

  1. Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to Evaluate the Vulnerabilities with ICT Assets Disposal Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yeboah-Boateng, Ezer Osei

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the possible vulnerabilities of ICT assets disposal policies and the associated impact that can affect the SMEs. A poorly implemented policy or unenforced policy is “potentially the weakest link” in the cyber-security chain. Do SMEs have an idea of vulnerabilities or threats...... due to assets disposal? In the event of breaches, the SMEs pay for the cost of notifying the concerned stakeholders, compensate affected parties, invest in improved mitigation technologies and also may be subjected to unwarranted public scrutiny. ICT assets at the end-of-useful life span usually have...... data left on the hard disk drives or storage media, which is a source of data confidentiality vulnerability. SMEs were surveyed in developing economies on their assets disposal policies. The perceived correlations were analyzed using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to ascertain if any cyber...

  2. Maine Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) Atlas, Maine - 2007, maps in portable document format (NODC Accession 0036827)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This four volume set of Environmental Vulnerability Index Maps depicts environmental resources along the coast of Maine most at risk from oil spilled into the marine...

  3. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  4. YouGenMap: a web platform for dynamic multi-comparative mapping and visualization of genetic maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith Batesole; Kokulapalan Wimalanathan; Lin Liu; Fan Zhang; Craig S. Echt; Chun Liang

    2014-01-01

    Comparative genetic maps are used in examination of genome organization, detection of conserved gene order, and exploration of marker order variations. YouGenMap is an open-source web tool that offers dynamic comparative mapping capability of users' own genetic mapping between 2 or more map sets. Users' genetic map data and optional gene annotations are...

  5. Controlling chaos in dynamical systems described by maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crispin, Y.; Marduel, C.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of suppressing chaotic behavior in dynamical systems is treated using a feedback control method with limited control effort. The proposed method is validated on archetypal systems described by maps, i.e. discrete-time difference equations. The method is also applicable to dynamical systems described by flows, i.e. by systems of ordinary differential equations. Results are presented for the one-dimensional logistic map and for a two-dimensional Lotka-Volterra map describing predator-prey population dynamics. It is shown that chaos can be suppressed and the system stabilized about a period-1 fixed point of the maps

  6. A coupled groundwater-flow-modelling and vulnerability-mapping methodology for karstic terrain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavouri, Konstantina P.; Karatzas, George P.; Plagnes, Valérie

    2017-08-01

    A coupled groundwater-flow-modelling and vulnerability-mapping methodology for the management of karst aquifers with spatial variability is developed. The methodology takes into consideration the duality of flow and recharge in karst and introduces a simple method to integrate the effect of temporal storage in the unsaturated zone. In order to investigate the applicability of the developed methodology, simulation results are validated against available field measurement data. The criteria maps from the PaPRIKa vulnerability-mapping method are used to document the groundwater flow model. The FEFLOW model is employed for the simulation of the saturated zone of Palaikastro-Chochlakies karst aquifer, in the island of Crete, Greece, for the hydrological years 2010-2012. The simulated water table reproduces typical karst characteristics, such as steep slopes and preferred drain axes, and is in good agreement with field observations. Selected calculated error indicators—Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and model efficiency (E')—are within acceptable value ranges. Results indicate that different storage processes take place in different parts of the aquifer. The north-central part seems to be more sensitive to diffuse recharge, while the southern part is affected primarily by precipitation events. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. The methodology is used to estimate the feasibility of artificial aquifer recharge (AAR) at the study area. Based on the developed methodology, guidelines were provided for the selection of the appropriate AAR scenario that has positive impact on the water table.

  7. Nonlinear dynamics of the relativistic standard map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.H.; Horton, W.

    1991-04-01

    Heating and acceleration of charged particles by RF fields have been extensively investigated by the standard map. The question arises as to how the relativistic effects change the nonlinear dynamical behavior described by the classical standard map. The relativistic standard map is a two parameter (K, Β = ω/kc) family of dynamical systems reducing to the standard map when Β → 0. For Β ≠ 0 the relativistic mass increase suppresses the onset of stochasticity. It shown that the speed of light limits the rate of advance of the phase in the relativistic standard map and introduces KAM surfaces persisting in the high momentum region. An intricate structure of mixing in the higher order periodic orbits and chaotic orbits is analyzed using the symmetry properties of the relativistic standard map. The interchange of the stability of the periodic orbits in the relativistic standard map is also observed and is explained by the local linear stability of the orbits. 12 refs., 16 figs

  8. Dynamics of exponential maps

    OpenAIRE

    Rempe, Lasse

    2003-01-01

    This thesis contains several new results about the dynamics of exponential maps $z\\mapsto \\exp(z)+\\kappa$. In particular, we prove that periodic external rays of exponential maps with nonescaping singular value always land. This is an analog of a theorem of Douady and Hubbard for polynomials. We also answer a question of Herman, Baker and Rippon by showing that the boundary of an unbounded exponential Siegel disk always contains the singular value. In addition to the presentation of new resul...

  9. A dynamic identity based authentication scheme using chaotic maps for telecare medicine information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiheng; Huo, Zhanqiang; Shi, Wenbo

    2015-01-01

    With rapid development of computer technology and wide use of mobile devices, the telecare medicine information system has become universal in the field of medical care. To protect patients' privacy and medial data's security, many authentication schemes for the telecare medicine information system have been proposed. Due to its better performance, chaotic maps have been used in the design of authentication schemes for the telecare medicine information system. However, most of them cannot provide user's anonymity. Recently, Lin proposed a dynamic identity based authentication scheme using chaotic maps for the telecare medicine information system and claimed that their scheme was secure against existential active attacks. In this paper, we will demonstrate that their scheme cannot provide user anonymity and is vulnerable to the impersonation attack. Further, we propose an improved scheme to fix security flaws in Lin's scheme and demonstrate the proposed scheme could withstand various attacks.

  10. Mapping Social Vulnerability to Air Pollution: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Ge

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Many frequent and severe air pollution incidents have emerged across the vast parts of China recently. The identification of factors and mapping social vulnerability has become extremely necessary for environmental management and sustainable development. However, studies associating social vulnerability with air pollution remain sparse. With reference to research achievements of social vulnerability, this study made a new trial regarding social vulnerability assessment to air pollution. With the projection pursuit cluster (PPC model, the top three factors contributing to social vulnerability index (SVI were discovered and SVI and SVI dimensions (susceptibility, exposure, and adaptability were evaluated. Results revealed that adaptability values are higher than susceptibility and exposure values. SVI is in a poor condition as, for the whole region, most values belong to the high-medium level. High SVI values mainly appear in the northern and the southern ends of study area. SVI in Shanghai is lower than in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. On the scale of prefecture-level city, it can be found that the low-value centers of SVI always occurred in urban core areas. The spatial variation and inequality in social vulnerability provide policy-makers a scientific basis for air pollution prevention and sustainable management.

  11. Determination of the Environmental Vulnerability into Potiguar Basin , on Macau (RN region, using Geographical Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Franco de Souza Lima

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available The coastal zones are important regions by their fragilities and dynamic. The research area is placed near Macau (RN county and it is known by land petrol exploration. About this view, this research had made maps of the natural and environmental vulnerability from base maps of geology, soils, vegetation, geomorphology and of using and occupation. Analyzing these maps it can diagnostic sensible areas from environmental problems, by allowing recommendation toward best advantage from control and protect activities. The vulnerability map elaboration aims to show the intensity and its distribution, mainly considering the stability related to morphogenesis and pedogenesis. The methodology procedures consists in the logical integration of different available data, and the set of all these information were integrated to make and to store a georeferencing data base into the Arcview ® GIS 3.2 software, permitting a systematic analysis of each element of thematic maps. The maps crossing was based on stability concept of each unit by considering the ecodynamic analysis concept.

  12. Maintaining Mappings Valid between Dynamic KOS

    OpenAIRE

    Dos Reis , Julio Cesar

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Knowledge Organization Systems (KOS) and the existing mappings between them have become extremely relevant in semantic-enabled systems especially for interoperability reasons. KOS may have a dynamic nature since knowledge in a lot of domains evolves fast, and thus KOS evolution can potentially impact mappings, turning them unreliable. A still open research problem is how to adapt mappings in the course of KOS evolution without re- computing semantic correspondences bet...

  13. Mapping of coastal aquifer vulnerable zone in the south west coast of Kanyakumari, South India, using GIS-based DRASTIC model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaliraj, S; Chandrasekar, N; Peter, T Simon; Selvakumar, S; Magesh, N S

    2015-01-01

    The south west coast of Kanyakumari district in Tamil Nadu, India, is significantly affected by seawater intrusion and diffusion of pollutants into the aquifers due to unregulated beach placer mining and other anthropogenic activities. The present study investigates the vulnerability of the coastal aquifers using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based DRASTIC model. The seven DRASTIC parameters have been analyzed using the statistical equation of this model to demarcate the vulnerable zones for aquifer contamination. The vulnerability index map is prepared from the weighted spatial parameters, and an accounting of total index value ranged from 85 to 213. Based on the categorization of vulnerability classes, the high vulnerable zones are found near the beach placer mining areas between Manavalakurichi and Kodimanal coastal stretches. The aquifers associated with settlements and agricultural lands in the middle-eastern part have experienced high vulnerability due to contaminated water bodies. Similarly, the coastal areas of Thengapattinam and Manakudi estuary and around the South Tamaraikulam have also been falling under high vulnerability condition due to backwater and saltpan. In general, the nearshore region except the placer mining zone and the backwater has a moderately vulnerable condition, and the vulnerability index values range from 149 to180. Significantly, the northern and northeastern uplands and some parts of deposition zones in the middle-south coast have been identified as low to no vulnerable conditions. They are structurally controlled by various geological features such as charnockite, garnet biotite gneiss and granites, and sand dunes, respectively. The aquifer vulnerability assessment has been cross-verified by geochemical indicators such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl(-), HCO₃(-), and Cl(-)/HCO₃(-) ratio. The high ranges of TDS (1,842--3,736 mg/l) and Cl(-) (1,412--2,112 mg/l) values are well correlated with the observed high

  14. Dynamic vulnerability assessment and intelligent control for sustainable power systems

    CERN Document Server

    Gonzalez-Longatt, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Identifying, assessing, and mitigating electric power grid vulnerabilities is a growing focus in short-term operational planning of power systems. Through illustrated application, this important guide surveys state-of-the-art methodologies for the assessment and enhancement of power system security in short-term operational planning and real-time operation. The methodologies employ advanced methods from probabilistic theory, data mining, artificial intelligence, and optimization, to provide knowledge-based support for monitoring, control (preventive and corrective), and decision making tasks. Key features: Introduces behavioural recognition in wide-area monitoring and security constrained optimal power flow for intelligent control and protection and optimal grid management. Provides in-depth understanding of risk-based reliability and security assessment, dynamic vulnerability as essment methods, supported by the underpinning mathematics. Develops expertise in mitigation techniques using intelligent protect...

  15. A GIS Approach to Identifying Socially and Medically Vulnerable Older Adult Populations in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hames, Elizabeth; Stoler, Justin; Emrich, Christopher T; Tewary, Sweta; Pandya, Naushira

    2017-11-10

    We define, map, and analyze geodemographic patterns of socially and medically vulnerable older adults within the tri-county region of South Florida. We apply principal components analysis (PCA) to a set of previously identified indicators of social and medical vulnerability at the census tract level. We create and map age-stratified vulnerability scores using a geographic information system (GIS), and use spatial analysis techniques to identify patterns and interactions between social and medical vulnerability. Key factors contributing to social vulnerability in areas with higher numbers of older adults include age, large household size, and Hispanic ethnicity. Medical vulnerability in these same areas is driven by disease burden, access to emergency cardiac services, availability of nursing home and hospice beds, access to home health care, and available mental health services. Age-dependent areas of social vulnerability emerge in Broward County, whereas age-dependent areas of medical vulnerability emerge in Palm Beach County. Older-adult social and medical vulnerability interact differently throughout the study area. Spatial analysis of older adult social and medical vulnerability using PCA and GIS can help identify age-dependent pockets of vulnerability that are not easily identifiable in a populationwide analysis; improve our understanding of the dynamic spatial organization of health care, health care needs, access to care, and outcomes; and ultimately serve as a tool for health care planning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Gamut mapping in a high-dynamic-range color space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preiss, Jens; Fairchild, Mark D.; Ferwerda, James A.; Urban, Philipp

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we present a novel approach of tone mapping as gamut mapping in a high-dynamic-range (HDR) color space. High- and low-dynamic-range (LDR) images as well as device gamut boundaries can simultaneously be represented within such a color space. This enables a unified transformation of the HDR image into the gamut of an output device (in this paper called HDR gamut mapping). An additional aim of this paper is to investigate the suitability of a specific HDR color space to serve as a working color space for the proposed HDR gamut mapping. For the HDR gamut mapping, we use a recent approach that iteratively minimizes an image-difference metric subject to in-gamut images. A psychophysical experiment on an HDR display shows that the standard reproduction workflow of two subsequent transformations - tone mapping and then gamut mapping - may be improved by HDR gamut mapping.

  17. Hunger mapping: food insecurity and vulnerability information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-12-01

    Save the Children Foundation (SCF), a nongovernmental organization (NGO), developed the "household food economy analysis" to assess the needs of an area or population facing acute food insecurity. This method considers all of the ways people secure access to food and illustrates the distribution of various food supplies in pie charts that allow comparison of the percentage contribution of each option during a normal year and a "bad" year. Data are gathered through the use of key informants, and the analysis permits identification of ways to support local initiatives and to target assistance. As a result of this work, SCF and another NGO, Helen Keller International, attended a March 1997 expert consultation organized by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to create a workplan for the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System (FIVIMS) called for in the World Food Summit Plan of Action. The consultation adopted use of the FAO's food and balance sheet approach, despite its limitations, and determined that indicators should be location- and time-specific as well as 1) simple and reliable, 2) readily available, 3) social and anthropometric, and 4) found at all levels. The consultation also recommended combination of the key informant and the indicator approach to data collection. Finally, the consultation identified appropriate actions that should be accomplished before the 1998 meeting of the FAO's Committee on World Food Security.

  18. Improving the Complexity of the Lorenz Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Pilar Mareca

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new four-dimensional, hyperchaotic dynamic system, based on Lorenz dynamics, is presented. Besides, the most representative dynamics which may be found in this new system are located in the phase space and are analyzed here. The new system is especially designed to improve the complexity of Lorenz dynamics, which, despite being a paradigm to understand the chaotic dissipative flows, is a very simple example and shows great vulnerability when used in secure communications. Here, we demonstrate the vulnerability of the Lorenz system in a general way. The proposed 4D system increases the complexity of the Lorenz dynamics. The trajectories of the novel system include structures going from chaos to hyperchaos and chaotic-transient solutions. The symmetry and the stability of the proposed system are also studied. First return maps, Poincaré sections, and bifurcation diagrams allow characterizing the global system behavior and locating some coexisting structures. Numerical results about the first return maps, Poincaré cross sections, Lyapunov spectrum, and Kaplan-Yorke dimension demonstrate the complexity of the proposed equations.

  19. Creating an Erosion Vulnerability Map for the Columbia River Basin to Determine Reservoir Susceptibility to Sedimentation Before and After Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, J.; Robichaud, P. J. L.; Adam, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Sedimentation is important issue to most rivers and reservoirs especially in watersheds with extensive agricultural or wildfire activity. These human and natural induced disturbances have the potential to increase runoff-induced erosion and sediment load to rivers; downstream sedimentation can decrease the life expectancy of reservoir and consequently the dam. This is particularly critical in snowmelt-dominant regions because, as rising temperatures reduce snowpack as a natural reservoir, humans will become more reliant on reservoir storage. In the Northwest U.S., the Columbia River Basin (CRB) has more than 60 dams, which were built for irrigation, hydropower, and flood control, all of which are affected by sediment to varying degrees. Determining what dams are most likely to be affected by sedimentation caused by post-fire erosion is important for future management of reservoirs, especially as climate change is anticipated to exacerbate wildfire and its impacts. The objective of this study is to create a sedimentation vulnerability map for reservoirs in the CRB. There are four attributes of a watershed that determine erosion potential; soil type, topography, vegetation (such as forests, shrubs, and grasslands), and precipitation (although precipitation was excluded in this analysis). In this study, a rating system was developed on a scale of 0-90 (with 90 having the greatest erosion potential). The different layers in a Graphical Information System were combined to create an erosion vulnerability map. Results suggest that areas with agriculture have more erosion without a wildfire but that forested areas are most vulnerable to erosion rates following a fire, particularly a high severity fire. Sedimentation in dams is a growing problem that needs to be addressed especially with the likely reduction in snowpack, this vulnerability map will help determine which reservoirs in the CRB are prone to high sedimentation. This information can inform managers where post

  20. Rift Valley fever in a zone potentially occupied by Aedes vexans in Senegal: dynamics and risk mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Vignolles

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the interaction between the various variables associated with Rift Valley fever (RVF such as the mosquito vector, available hosts and rainfall distribution. To that end, the varying zones potentially occupied by mosquitoes (ZPOM, rainfall events and pond dynamics, and the associated exposure of hosts to the RVF virus by Aedes vexans, were analyzed in the Barkedji area of the Ferlo, Senegal, during the 2003 rainy season. Ponds were identified by remote sensing using a high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite image. Additional data on ponds and rainfall events from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission were combined with in-situ entomological and limnimetric measurements, and the localization of vulnerable ruminant hosts (data derived from QuickBird satellite. Since “Ae. vexans productive events” are dependent on the timing of rainfall for their embryogenesis (six days without rain are necessary to trigger hatching, the dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Ae. vexans density was based on the total rainfall amount and pond dynamics. Detailed ZPOM mapping was obtained on a daily basis and combined with aggressiveness temporal profiles. Risks zones, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability are combined, are expressed by the percentages of parks where animals are potentially exposed to mosquito bites. This new approach, simply relying upon rainfall distribution evaluated from space, is meant to contribute to the implementation of a new, operational early warning system for RVF based on environmental risks linked to climatic and environmental conditions.

  1. Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

    2018-01-01

    Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

  2. Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Júlia Alves Menezes

    Full Text Available Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

  3. Map updates in a dynamic Voronoi data structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Antón Castro, Francesc/François; Gold, C. M.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we are using local and sequential map updates in the Voronoi data structure, which allows us to automatically record each event and performed map updates within the system. These map updates are executed through map construction commands that are composed of atomic actions (geometric...... algorithms for addition, deletion, and motion of spatial objects) on the dynamic Voronoi data structure. The formalization of map commands led to the development of a spatial language comprising a set of atomic operations or constructs on spatial primitives (points and lines), powerful enough to define...

  4. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

    2008-09-01

    Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

  5. Spatial differences in drought vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.

    2012-04-01

    Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

  6. Application of the GEM Inventory Data Capture Tools for Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrucci, Enrica; Bevington, John; Vicini, Alessandro

    2014-05-01

    A set of open-source tools to create building exposure datasets for seismic risk assessment was developed from 2010-13 by the Inventory Data Capture Tools (IDCT) Risk Global Component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The tools were designed to integrate data derived from remotely-sensed imagery, statistically-sampled in-situ field data of buildings to generate per-building and regional exposure data. A number of software tools were created to aid the development of these data, including mobile data capture tools for in-field structural assessment, and the Spatial Inventory Data Developer (SIDD) for creating "mapping schemes" - statistically-inferred distributions of building stock applied to areas of homogeneous urban land use. These tools were made publically available in January 2014. Exemplar implementations in Europe and Central Asia during the IDCT project highlighted several potential application areas beyond the original scope of the project. These are investigated here. We describe and demonstrate how the GEM-IDCT suite can be used extensively within the framework proposed by the EC-FP7 project SENSUM (Framework to integrate Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring). Specifically, applications in the areas of 1) dynamic vulnerability assessment (pre-event), and 2) recovery monitoring and evaluation (post-event) are discussed. Strategies for using the IDC Tools for these purposes are discussed. The results demonstrate the benefits of using advanced technology tools for data capture, especially in a systematic fashion using the taxonomic standards set by GEM. Originally designed for seismic risk assessment, it is clear the IDCT tools have relevance for multi-hazard risk assessment. When combined with a suitable sampling framework and applied to multi-temporal recovery monitoring, data generated from the tools can reveal spatio-temporal patterns in the quality of recovery activities and resilience trends can be

  7. Survey of geomorphological and hydrogeological data for mapping groundwater vulnerability of the Guarani Aquifer in Portão and Estância Velha/RS using the DRASTIC method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osmar G. Wöhl Coelho

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerability mapping of groundwater contamination has been widely developed and included in municipal plans to guide environmental management policies and it is recommended in CONAMA 396 Resolution (Brasil, 2008. Portão and Estância Velha, RS regions present potencial risk of contamination due to industrial activities. The Guarani Aquifer System (SAG in the study area is composed by the Pirambóia and Botucatu Formations. Both formations are formed by sandstones and they are partially confined by the basalts of the Serra Geral Aquifer. The method DRASTIC was chosen to build the vulnerability map. The shallow water table and the sedimentary lithology are indicative factors of intermediate to high vulnerability. The soils were divided in domains according to their texture. The first domain of claysoil has an impermeable behavior. The infiltration tests and thick layers of clay confirm a low hydraulic conductivity of this pedological unit, providing a natural protection of the aquifer. However, in the study area, the second claysoil domain is dominant and has more diffuse sand in the profile. The restricted presence of expansive clay minerals increases the vulnerability. Occupancy of areas of high vulnerability is directly related to the contamination of the aquifer. The efficiency of the map is related to the interdependence of parameters involving hydrogeological and geomorphological aspects. Thus, it has been observed a high degree of vulnerability to groundwater contamination in 25% of the area, an intermediate vulnerability in 72.4%, and a low degree in only 2.6% of the area.

  8. Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Pandian; Ananthan, Pachampalayam Shanmugam; Purvaja, Ramachandran; Joyson Joe Jeevamani, Jeyapaul; Amali Infantina, John; Srinivasa Rao, Cherukumalli; Anand, Arur; Mahendra, Ranganalli Somashekharappa; Sekar, Iyyapa; Kareemulla, Kalakada; Biswas, Amit; Kalpana Sastry, Regulagedda; Ramesh, Ramachandran

    2018-05-31

    The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as

  9. Mapping the regional variation in potential vulnerability in Indian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GREG

    namely, Bio-Physical vulnerability index and Socio-Economic vulnerability index to develop the final overall vulnerability index. ... Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy more spe- cifically of the rural livelihood security system. ... of the total workforce) in spite of the diversification of eco- nomic activity. It is also an ...

  10. Hierarchical tone mapping for high dynamic range image visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Guoping; Duan, Jiang

    2005-07-01

    In this paper, we present a computationally efficient, practically easy to use tone mapping techniques for the visualization of high dynamic range (HDR) images in low dynamic range (LDR) reproduction devices. The new method, termed hierarchical nonlinear linear (HNL) tone-mapping operator maps the pixels in two hierarchical steps. The first step allocates appropriate numbers of LDR display levels to different HDR intensity intervals according to the pixel densities of the intervals. The second step linearly maps the HDR intensity intervals to theirs allocated LDR display levels. In the developed HNL scheme, the assignment of LDR display levels to HDR intensity intervals is controlled by a very simple and flexible formula with a single adjustable parameter. We also show that our new operators can be used for the effective enhancement of ordinary images.

  11. Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2014-01-01

    East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...

  12. Dynamical behaviour of the coupled diffusion map lattice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Wang; Cerdeira, H.A.

    1993-10-01

    In this paper we report the dynamical study of a coupled diffusive map lattice with the coupling between the elements only through the bifurcation parameter of the mapping function. The diffusive process of the lattice from an initially random distribution state to a homogeneous one and the stable range of the diffusive homogeneous attractor are discussed. For various coupling strengths we find that there are several types of spatio-temporal structures. In addition, the evolution of the lattice into chaos is studied and a largest Lyapunov exponent is used to characterize the dynamical behaviour. (author). 22 refs, 9 figs

  13. Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Woo, Jean; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

    2017-08-31

    Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also

  14. Real Time Mapping and Dynamic Navigation for Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maki K. Habib

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the importance, the complexity and the challenges of mapping mobile robot?s unknown and dynamic environment, besides the role of sensors and the problems inherited in map building. These issues remain largely an open research problems in developing dynamic navigation systems for mobile robots. The paper presenst the state of the art in map building and localization for mobile robots navigating within unknown environment, and then introduces a solution for the complex problem of autonomous map building and maintenance method with focus on developing an incremental grid based mapping technique that is suitable for real-time obstacle detection and avoidance. In this case, the navigation of mobile robots can be treated as a problem of tracking geometric features that occur naturally in the environment of the robot. The robot maps its environment incrementally using the concept of occupancy grids and the fusion of multiple ultrasonic sensory information while wandering in it and stay away from all obstacles. To ensure real-time operation with limited resources, as well as to promote extensibility, the mapping and obstacle avoidance modules are deployed in parallel and distributed framework. Simulation based experiments has been conducted and illustrated to show the validity of the developed mapping and obstacle avoidance approach.

  15. A Novel Image Stream Cipher Based On Dynamic Substitution

    OpenAIRE

    Elsharkawi, A.; El-Sagheer, R. M.; Akah, H.; Taha, H.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, many chaos-based stream cipher algorithms have been developed. Traditional chaos stream cipher is based on XORing a generated secure random number sequence based on chaotic maps (e.g. logistic map, Bernoulli Map, Tent Map etc.) with the original image to get the encrypted image, This type of stream cipher seems to be vulnerable to chosen plaintext attacks. This paper introduces a new stream cipher algorithm based on dynamic substitution box. The new algorithm uses one substitution b...

  16. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  17. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-23

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  18. Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo, S.; Brondizio, E.; Renaud, F.G.; Hetrick, S.; Nicholls, R.; Matthews, Z.; Tessler, Z; Tejedor, A; Sebesvari, Z; Foufoula-Georgiou, E; da Costa, S; Dearing, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient pol...

  19. Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion Processes: Study Cases from Different Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anfuso, Giorgio; Martinez Del Pozo, Jose Angel; Rangel-Buitrago, Nelson

    2010-05-01

    When natural processes affect or threaten human activities or infrastructures they become a natural hazard. In order to prevent the natural hazards impact and the associated economic and human losses, coastal managers need to know the intrinsic vulnerability of the littoral, using information on the physical and ecological coastal features, human occupation and present and future shoreline trends. The prediction of future coastline positions can be based on the study of coastal changes which have occurred over recent decades. Vertical aerial photographs, satellite imagery and maps are very useful data sources for the reconstruction of coast line changes at long (>60 years) and medium (between 60 and 10 years) temporal and spatial scales. Vulnerability maps have been obtained for several coastal sectors around the world through the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), computer-assisted multivariate analysis and numerical models. In the USA, "Flood Insurance Rate Maps" have been created by the government and "Coastal Zone Hazard Maps" have been prepared for coastal stretches affected by hurricane Hugo. In Spain, the vulnerability of the Ebro and an Andalusia coastal sector were investigated over different time scales. McLaughlin et al., (2002) developed a GIS based coastal vulnerability index for the Northern Ireland littoral that took into account socio-economic activities and coastal resistance to erosion and energetic characteristics. Lizárraga et al., (2001) combined beach reduction at Rosario (Mexico) with the probability of damage to landward structures, obtaining a vulnerability matrix. In this work several coastal vulnerability maps have also been created by comparing data on coastal erosion/accretion and land use along different coastal sectors in Italy, Morocco and Colombia. Keywords: Hazard, Vulnerability, Coastal Erosion, Italy, Morocco, Colombia.

  20. Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

  1. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the coastal region of Oman using DRASTIC index method in GIS environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamrah, Ahmad; Al-Futaisi, Ahmed; Rajmohan, Natarajan; Al-Yaroubi, Saif

    2008-12-01

    A study was carried out to develop a vulnerability map for Barka region in the North Batina of Oman using DRASTIC vulnerability index method in GIS environment. DRASTIC layers were created using data from published reports and the seven DRASTIC layers were processed by the ArcGIS geographic information system. Finally, DRASTIC maps were created for 1995 and 2004 to understand the long-term changes in the vulnerability index. DRASTIC vulnerability maps were evaluated using groundwater quality data such as chemical and biological parameters. DRASTIC vulnerability maps of 1995 and 2004 indicate that the northern part of Barka is more vulnerable to pollution than southern part and the central part of Barka also shows high relative vulnerability which is mostly related to the high conductivity values. Moreover, the changes in water level due to high abstraction rate of groundwater reflect in the vulnerability maps and low vulnerability area is increased in the southern part during 2004 compared to 1995. Moreover, regional distribution maps of nitrate, chloride and total and fecal coliforms are well correlated with DRASTIC vulnerability maps. In contrast to this, even though DRASTIC method predicted the central part of the study region is highly vulnerable, both chemical and biological parameters show lower concentrations in this region compared to coastal belt, which is mainly due to agricultural and urban development. In Barka, urban development and agricultural activities are very high in coastal region compared to southern and central part of the study area. Hence, this study concluded that DRASTIC method is also applicable in coastal region having ubiquitous contamination sources.

  2. Gross-Pitaevski map as a chaotic dynamical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarneri, Italo

    2017-03-01

    The Gross-Pitaevski map is a discrete time, split-operator version of the Gross-Pitaevski dynamics in the circle, for which exponential instability has been recently reported. Here it is studied as a classical dynamical system in its own right. A systematic analysis of Lyapunov exponents exposes strongly chaotic behavior. Exponential growth of energy is then shown to be a direct consequence of rotational invariance and for stationary solutions the full spectrum of Lyapunov exponents is analytically computed. The present analysis includes the "resonant" case, when the free rotation period is commensurate to 2π, and the map has countably many constants of the motion. Except for lowest-order resonances, this case exhibits an integrable-chaotic transition.

  3. Dynamic Quantitative T1 Mapping in Orthotopic Brain Tumor Xenografts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelsey Herrmann

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Human brain tumors such as glioblastomas are typically detected using conventional, nonquantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI techniques, such as T2-weighted and contrast enhanced T1-weighted MRI. In this manuscript, we tested whether dynamic quantitative T1 mapping by MRI can localize orthotopic glioma tumors in an objective manner. Quantitative T1 mapping was performed by MRI over multiple time points using the conventional contrast agent Optimark. We compared signal differences to determine the gadolinium concentration in tissues over time. The T1 parametric maps made it easy to identify the regions of contrast enhancement and thus tumor location. Doubling the typical human dose of contrast agent resulted in a clearer demarcation of these tumors. Therefore, T1 mapping of brain tumors is gadolinium dose dependent and improves detection of tumors by MRI. The use of T1 maps provides a quantitative means to evaluate tumor detection by gadolinium-based contrast agents over time. This dynamic quantitative T1 mapping technique will also enable future quantitative evaluation of various targeted MRI contrast agents.

  4. Interchanging parameters and integrals in dynamical systems: the mapping case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, John A.G. [Department of Mathematics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC (Australia) and School of Mathematics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)]. E-mail: jagr@maths.unsw.edu.au; Apostolos, Iatrou; Quispel, G.R.W. [Department of Mathematics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC (Australia)]. E-mails: A.Iatrou@latrobe.edu.au; R.Quispel@latrobe.edu.au

    2002-03-08

    We consider dynamical systems with discrete time (maps) that possess one or more integrals depending upon parameters. We show that integrals can be used to replace parameters in the original map so as to construct a different map with different integrals. We also highlight a process of reparametrization that can be used to increase the number of parameters in the original map prior to using integrals to replace them. Properties of the original map and the new map are compared. The theory is motivated by, and illustrated with, examples of a three-dimensional trace map and some four-dimensional maps previously shown to be integrable. (author)

  5. Seeing climate vulnerabilities through lived experience in Madagascar

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... ... both vulnerability and strategies for reducing risk, and the project is in the process of producing a range ... of the team's effort to paint a composite map of climate vulnerability and risk to agrarian systems. ... Feeling stressed?

  6. Soil erosion vulnerability in the verde river basin, southern minas gerais

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinícius Augusto de Oliveira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the most significant environmental degradation processes. Mapping and assessment of soil erosion vulnerability is an important tool for planning and management of the natural resources. The objective of the present study was to apply the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE using GIS tools to the Verde River Basin (VRB, southern Minas Gerais, in order to assess soil erosion vulnerability. A annual rainfall erosivity map was derived from the geographical model adjusted for Southeastern Brazil, calculating an annual value for each pixel. The maps of soil erodibility (K, topographic factor (LS, and use and management of soils (C were developed from soils and their uses map and the digital elevation model (DEM developed for the basin. In a GIS environment, the layers of the factors were combined to create the soil erosion vulnerability map according to RUSLE. The results showed that, in general, the soils of the VRB present a very high vulnerability to water erosion, with 58.68% of soil losses classified as "High" and "Extremely High" classes. In the headwater region of VRB, the predominant classes were "Very High" and "Extremely High" where there is predominance of Cambisols associated with extensive pastures. Furthermore, the integration of RUSLE/GIS showed an efficient tool for spatial characterization of soil erosion vulnerability in this important basin of the Minas Gerais state.

  7. Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung Chak Ho

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12. Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk

  8. Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    anshory

    Development Studies (CEDS), Padjadjaran University, for his excellent research assistance. ... Malaysia, and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change. 2. ... system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), ... national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia, i.e., ...

  9. The Vulnerability Assessment Code for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2007-01-01

    To neutralize the increasing terror threats, nuclear facilities have strong physical protection system (PPS). PPS includes detectors, door locks, fences, regular guard patrols, and a hot line to a nearest military force. To design an efficient PPS and to fully operate it, vulnerability assessment process is required. Evaluating PPS of a nuclear facility is complicate process and, hence, several assessment codes have been developed. The estimation of adversary sequence interruption (EASI) code analyzes vulnerability along a single intrusion path. To evaluate many paths to a valuable asset in an actual facility, the systematic analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (SAVI) code was developed. KAERI improved SAVI and made the Korean analysis of vulnerability to intrusion (KAVI) code. Existing codes (SAVI and KAVI) have limitations in representing the distance of a facility because they use the simplified model of a PPS called adversary sequence diagram. In adversary sequence diagram the position of doors, sensors and fences is described just as the locating area. Thus, the distance between elements is inaccurate and we cannot reflect the range effect of sensors. In this abstract, we suggest accurate and intuitive vulnerability assessment based on raster map modeling of PPS. The raster map of PPS accurately represents the relative position of elements and, thus, the range effect of sensor can be easily incorporable. Most importantly, the raster map is easy to understand

  10. An optimal strategy for functional mapping of dynamic trait loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tianbo; Li, Jiahan; Guo, Ying; Zhou, Xiaojing; Yang, Runqing; Wu, Rongling

    2010-02-01

    As an emerging powerful approach for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) responsible for dynamic traits, functional mapping models the time-dependent mean vector with biologically meaningful equations and are likely to generate biologically relevant and interpretable results. Given the autocorrelation nature of a dynamic trait, functional mapping needs the implementation of the models for the structure of the covariance matrix. In this article, we have provided a comprehensive set of approaches for modelling the covariance structure and incorporated each of these approaches into the framework of functional mapping. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values are used as a model selection criterion to choose the optimal combination of the submodels for the mean vector and covariance structure. In an example for leaf age growth from a rice molecular genetic project, the best submodel combination was found between the Gaussian model for the correlation structure, power equation of order 1 for the variance and the power curve for the mean vector. Under this combination, several significant QTLs for leaf age growth trajectories were detected on different chromosomes. Our model can be well used to study the genetic architecture of dynamic traits of agricultural values.

  11. Web Application Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Yadav, Bhanu

    2014-01-01

    Web application security has been a major issue in information technology since the evolvement of dynamic web application. The main objective of this project was to carry out a detailed study on the top three web application vulnerabilities such as injection, cross site scripting, broken authentication and session management, present the situation where an application can be vulnerable to these web threats and finally provide preventative measures against them. ...

  12. Chaotic dynamics in two-dimensional noninvertible maps

    CERN Document Server

    Mira, Christian; Cathala, Jean-Claude; Gardini, Laura

    1996-01-01

    This book is essentially devoted to complex properties (Phase plane structure and bifurcations) of two-dimensional noninvertible maps, i.e. maps having either a non-unique inverse, or no real inverse, according to the plane point. They constitute models of sets of discrete dynamical systems encountered in Engineering (Control, Signal Processing, Electronics), Physics, Economics, Life Sciences. Compared to the studies made in the one-dimensional case, the two-dimensional situation remained a long time in an underdeveloped state. It is only since these last years that the interest for this resea

  13. Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

    2007-01-01

    The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning

  14. Dynamic plasticity in coupled avian midbrain maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwal, Gurinder Singh

    2004-12-01

    Internal mapping of the external environment is carried out using the receptive fields of topographic neurons in the brain, and in a normal barn owl the aural and visual subcortical maps are aligned from early experiences. However, instantaneous misalignment of the aural and visual stimuli has been observed to result in adaptive behavior, manifested by functional and anatomical changes of the auditory processing system. Using methods of information theory and statistical mechanics a model of the adaptive dynamics of the aural receptive field is presented and analyzed. The dynamics is determined by maximizing the mutual information between the neural output and the weighted sensory neural inputs, admixed with noise, subject to biophysical constraints. The reduced costs of neural rewiring, as in the case of young barn owls, reveal two qualitatively different types of receptive field adaptation depending on the magnitude of the audiovisual misalignment. By letting the misalignment increase with time, it is shown that the ability to adapt can be increased even when neural rewiring costs are high, in agreement with recent experimental reports of the increased plasticity of the auditory space map in adult barn owls due to incremental learning. Finally, a critical speed of misalignment is identified, demarcating the crossover from adaptive to nonadaptive behavior.

  15. Mapping Vulnerable Urban Areas Affected by Slow-Moving Landslides Using Sentinel-1 InSAR Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Béjar-Pizarro

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are widespread natural hazards that generate considerable damage and economic losses worldwide. Detecting terrain movements caused by these phenomena and characterizing affected urban areas is critical to reduce their impact. Here we present a fast and simple methodology to create maps of vulnerable buildings affected by slow-moving landslides, based on two parameters: (1 the deformation rate associated to each building, measured from Sentinel-1 SAR data, and (2 the building damage generated by the landslide movement and recorded during a field campaign. We apply this method to Arcos de la Frontera, a monumental town in South Spain affected by a slow-moving landslide that has caused severe damage to buildings, forcing the evacuation of some of them. Our results show that maximum deformation rates of 4 cm/year in the line-of-sight (LOS of the satellite, affects La Verbena, a newly-developed area, and displacements are mostly horizontal, as expected for a planar-landslide. Our building damage assessment reveals that most of the building blocks in La Verbena present moderate to severe damages. According to our vulnerability scale, 93% of the building blocks analysed present high vulnerability and, thus, should be the focus of more in-depth local studies to evaluate the serviceability of buildings, prior to adopting the necessary mitigation measures to reduce or cope with the negative consequences of this landslide. This methodology can be applied to slow-moving landslides worldwide thanks to the global availability of Sentinel-1 SAR data.

  16. G-Consistent Subsets and Reduced Dynamical Quantum Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, Russell R.

    A quantum system which evolves in time while interacting with an external environ- ment is said to be an open quantum system (OQS), and the influence of the environment on the unperturbed unitary evolution of the system generally leads to non-unitary dynamics. This kind of open system dynamical evolution has been typically modeled by a Standard Prescription (SP) which assumes that the state of the OQS is initially uncorrelated with the environment state. It is here shown that when a minimal set of physically motivated assumptions are adopted, not only does there exist constraints on the reduced dynamics of an OQS such that this SP does not always accurately describe the possible initial cor- relations existing between the OQS and environment, but such initial correlations, and even entanglement, can be witnessed when observing a particular class of reduced state transformations termed purity extractions are observed. Furthermore, as part of a more fundamental investigation to better understand the minimal set of assumptions required to formulate well defined reduced dynamical quantum maps, it is demonstrated that there exists a one-to-one correspondence between the set of initial reduced states and the set of admissible initial system-environment composite states when G-consistency is enforced. Given the discussions surrounding the requirement of complete positivity and the reliance on the SP, the results presented here may well be found valuable for determining the ba- sic properties of reduced dynamical maps, and when restrictions on the OQS dynamics naturally emerge.

  17. Redistributing vulnerabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Padmawati, Retna Siwi

    2015-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the social distribution of vulnerability in a given society may turn hazardous events into disasters. This distributional approach draws attention to continuities that explain catastrophes by virtue of the workings of society prior to the event. In this paper, we draw...... attention to the social processes whereby vulnerability is modified and renegotiated during the post-disaster period where resources for disaster alleviation and reconstruction enter local communities. Specifically, we explore the social dynamics of house damage classification in the wake of the 2006...... Central Java earthquake, and we explore relations between citizens and the state during post-disaster house reconstruction. We argue that disastrous outcomes of catastrophic events do not follow pre-existing fault lines of vulnerability in a simple or predictable manner, and that the social process...

  18. Coupled-expanding maps and one-sided symbolic dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Yuming; Ju, Hyonhui; Chen Guanrong

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies relationships between coupled-expanding maps and one-sided symbolic dynamical systems. The concept of coupled-expanding map is extended to a more general one: coupled-expansion for a transitive matrix. It is found that the subshift for a transitive matrix is strictly coupled-expanding for the matrix in certain disjoint compact subsets; the topological conjugacy of a continuous map in its compact invariant set of a metric space to a subshift for a transitive matrix has a close relationship with that the map is strictly coupled-expanding for the matrix in some disjoint compact subsets. A certain relationship between strictly coupled-expanding maps for a transitive matrix in disjoint bounded and closed subsets of a complete metric space and their topological conjugacy to the subshift for the matrix is also obtained. Dynamical behaviors of subshifts for irreducible matrices are then studied and several equivalent statements to chaos are obtained; especially, chaos in the sense of Li-Yorke is equivalent to chaos in the sense of Devaney for the subshift, and is also equivalent to that the domain of the subshift is infinite. Based on these results, several new criteria of chaos for maps are finally established via strict coupled-expansions for irreducible transitive matrices in compact subsets of metric spaces and in bounded and closed subsets of complete metric spaces, respectively, where their conditions are weaker than those existing in the literature.

  19. Generation and communication of dynamic maps using light projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Steffen; Schlichting, Alexander; Brenner, Claus

    2018-05-01

    Many accidents are caused by miscommunication between traffic participants. Much research is being conducted in the area of car to car and car to infrastructure communication in order to eliminate this cause of accidents. How-ever, less attention is paid to the question how the behavior of a car can be communicated to pedestrians. Especially considering automated traffic, there is a lack of communication between cars and pedestrians. In this paper, we address the question how an autonomously driving car can inform pedestrians about its intentions. Especially in case of highly automated driving, making eye contact with a driver will give no clue about his or her intensions. We developed a prototype which continuously informs pedestrians about the intentions of the vehicle by projecting visual patterns onto the ground. Furthermore, the system communicates its interpretation of the observed situation to the pedestrians to warn them or to encourage them to perform a certain action. In order to communicate adaptively, the vehicle needs to develop an understanding of the dynamics of a city to know what to expect in certain situations and what speed is appropriate. To support this, we created a dynamic map, which estimates the number of pedestrians and cyclists in a certain area, which is then used to determine how `hazardous' the area is. This dynamic map is obtained from measurement data from many time instances, in contrast to the static car navigation maps, which are prevalent today. Apart from being used for communication purposes, the dynamic map can also influence the speed of a car, be it manually or autonomously driven. Adapting the speed in hazardous areas will avoid accidents where a car drives too fast, so that neither a human nor a computer-operated system would be able to stop in time.

  20. FLOOD VULNERABILITY IN BODVA RIVER BASIN IN SLOVAKIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZELENAKOVA MARTINA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to generate a composite map for decision makers using selected factors, mainly of natural character, causing floods. In the analyses, some of the causative factors for flooding in a catchment area are taken into account, such as soil type, precipitation, land use, size of catchment and basin slope. A case study of flood vulnerability identification in the Bodva river basin in eastern Slovakia is employed to illustrate the different approaches. A geographical information system (GIS is integrated with multicriteria analysis (MCA in the paper. The identification of flood vulnerability consists of two basic phases. Firstly, the effective factors causing floods are identified. Secondly several approaches to MCA in a GIS environment are applied and these approaches are evaluated in order to prepared flood vulnerability map.

  1. The Concept of Collision-Free Motion Planning Using a Dynamic Collision Map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keum-Bae Cho

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we address a new method for the collision-free motion planning of a mobile robot in dynamic environments. The motion planner is based on the concept of a conventional collision map (CCM, represented on the L(travel length-T(time plane. We extend the CCM with dynamic information about obstacles, such as linear acceleration and angular velocity, providing useful information for estimating variation in the collision map. We first analyse the effect of the dynamic motion of an obstacle in the collision region. We then define the measure of collision dispersion (MOCD. The dynamic collision map (DCM is generated by drawing the MOCD on the CCM. To evaluate a collision-free motion planner using the DCM, we extend the DCM with MOCD, then draw the unreachable region and deadlocked regions. Finally, we construct a collision-free motion planner using the information from the extended DCM.

  2. Southern African Coastal vulnerability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rautenbach, C

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available or business. The CSIR coastal systems group uses specialist skills in coastal engineering, geographic engineering systems and numerical modelling to assess and map vulnerable coastal ecosystems to develop specific adaptation measures and coastal protection...

  3. Adaptive typography for dynamic mapping environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardon, Didier

    1991-08-01

    When typography moves across a map, it passes over areas of different colors, densities, and textures. In such a dynamic environment, the aspect of typography must be constantly adapted to provide disernibility for every new background. Adaptive typography undergoes two adaptive operations: background control and contrast control. The background control prevents the features of the map (edges, lines, abrupt changes of densities) from destroying the integrity of the letterform. This is achieved by smoothing the features of the map in the area where a text label is displayed. The modified area is limited to the space covered by the characters of the label. Dispositions are taken to insure that the smoothing operation does not introduce any new visual noise. The contrast control assures that there are sufficient lightness differences between the typography and its ever-changing background. For every new situation, background color and foreground color are compared and the foreground color lightness is adjusted according to a chosen contrast value. Criteria and methods of choosing the appropriate contrast value are presented as well as the experiments that led to them.

  4. Dynamic Programming for Re-Mapping Noisy Fixations in Translation Tasks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    this "naïve" gaze-to-word mapping by introducing background knowledge about the gazing task. In a first step, the sequence of "naïve" gaze-to-symbol mappings is projected into a lattice of several possible gaze locations above and below the current fixation on the text. In a second step a dynamic programming...

  5. An Integrated Tone Mapping for High Dynamic Range Image Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Lei; Pan, Jeng-Shyang; Zhuang, Yongjun

    2018-01-01

    There are two type tone mapping operators for high dynamic range (HDR) image visualization. HDR image mapped by perceptual operators have strong sense of reality, but will lose local details. Empirical operators can maximize local detail information of HDR image, but realism is not strong. A common tone mapping operator suitable for all applications is not available. This paper proposes a novel integrated tone mapping framework which can achieve conversion between empirical operators and perceptual operators. In this framework, the empirical operator is rendered based on improved saliency map, which simulates the visual attention mechanism of the human eye to the natural scene. The results of objective evaluation prove the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

  6. Working up a Debt: Students as Vulnerable Consumers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robson, Julie; Farquhar, Jillian Dawes; Hindle, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    Students are recognized as vulnerable consumers where financial matters are concerned, particularly with reference to indebtedness. This study examines student indebtedness in order to initiate wider debate about student vulnerability. We consider vulnerability as dynamic and temporal, linked to an event that renders the consumer susceptible to…

  7. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  8. One- and two-cluster synchronized dynamics of non-diffusively coupled Tchebycheff map networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schäfer, Mirko; Greiner, Martin

    2012-01-01

    We use the master stability formalism to discuss one- and two-cluster synchronization of coupled Tchebycheff map networks. For diffusively coupled map systems, the one-cluster synchronized dynamics is given by the behaviour of the individual maps, and the coupling only determines the stability of the coherent state. For the case of non-diffusive coupling and for two-cluster synchronization, the synchronized dynamics on networks is different from the behaviour of the single individual map. Depending on the coupling, we study numerically the characteristics of various forms of the resulting synchronized dynamics. The stability properties of the respective one-cluster synchronized states are discussed for arbitrary network structures. For the case of two-cluster synchronization on bipartite networks we also present analytical expressions for fixed points and zig-zag patterns, and explicitly determine the linear stability of these orbits for the special case of ring-networks.

  9. Mapping groundwater dynamics using multiple sources of exhaustive high resolution data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Finke, P.A.; Brus, D.J.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Hoogland, T.; Knotters, M.; Vries, de F.

    2004-01-01

    Existing groundwater table (GWT) class maps, available at full coverage for the Netherlands at 1:50,000 scale, no longer satisfy user demands. Groundwater levels have changed due to strong human impact, so the maps are partially outdated. Furthermore, a more dynamic description of groundwater table

  10. Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

  11. Robust dynamical effects in traffic and chaotic maps on trees

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Here we study two types of well-defined diffusive dynamics on scale-free trees: traffic of packets as navigated random walks, and chaotic standard maps coupled along the network links. We show that in both cases robust collective dynamic effects appear, which can be measured statistically and related to non-ergodicity of ...

  12. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

  13. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability to groundwater contamination in lahore, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmood, K.; Khan, R.M.; Ashfaq, M.; Ahsan, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study was intended to map intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater contamination in Lahore using GIS based DRASTIC model. The final output of DRASTIC model was reclassified into three equal interval classes, corresponding to low, moderate and high vulnerability regions. Most of the study area was found to have low to moderate vulnerability, with 27.48% area of low, 66.48% of moderate and only 6.04% area of high vulnerability. Most of the drinking water wells are installed in the residential area of the city, which shows low chances of contamination due to deep water table and almost no recharge. However, an industrial drain is located in the high vulnerable area in the southeastern part of the study area. The previous studies are in agreement with vulnerability zones. Further to remove any doubt in the suitability of assigned weight, map removal sensitivity analysis had been carried out. The assessment of the sensitivity analysis had been made through visual as well as quantitative methods. Priority order for contribution of the parameters in the vulnerability for the study area is D>I>C>R>A>T>S. (author)

  14. A Double Perturbation Method for Reducing Dynamical Degradation of the Digital Baker Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lingfeng; Lin, Jun; Miao, Suoxia; Liu, Bocheng

    2017-06-01

    The digital Baker map is widely used in different kinds of cryptosystems, especially for image encryption. However, any chaotic map which is realized on the finite precision device (e.g. computer) will suffer from dynamical degradation, which refers to short cycle lengths, low complexity and strong correlations. In this paper, a novel double perturbation method is proposed for reducing the dynamical degradation of the digital Baker map. Both state variables and system parameters are perturbed by the digital logistic map. Numerical experiments show that the perturbed Baker map can achieve good statistical and cryptographic properties. Furthermore, a new image encryption algorithm is provided as a simple application. With a rather simple algorithm, the encrypted image can achieve high security, which is competitive to the recently proposed image encryption algorithms.

  15. Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics

  16. Symbolic dynamics and synchronization of coupled map networks with multiple delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atay, Fatihcan M.; Jalan, Sarika; Jost, Juergen

    2010-01-01

    We use symbolic dynamics to study discrete-time dynamical systems with multiple time delays. We exploit the concept of avoiding sets, which arise from specific non-generating partitions of the phase space and restrict the occurrence of certain symbol sequences related to the characteristics of the dynamics. In particular, we show that the resulting forbidden sequences are closely related to the time delays in the system. We present two applications to coupled map lattices, namely (1) detecting synchronization and (2) determining unknown values of the transmission delays in networks with possibly directed and weighted connections and measurement noise. The method is applicable to multi-dimensional as well as set-valued maps, and to networks with time-varying delays and connection structure.

  17. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Kar, Amlanjyoti

    2016-01-01

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  18. Environmental vulnerability assessment using Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, Satiprasad [School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (India); Kar, Amlanjyoti [Central Ground Water Board, Bhujal Bhawan, Faridabad, Haryana (India)

    2016-01-15

    Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, wind speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.

  19. An Approach of Dynamic Object Removing for Indoor Mapping Based on UGV SLAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Tang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The study of indoor mapping for Location Based Service (LBS becomes more and more popular in recent years. LiDAR SLAM based mapping method seems to be a promising indoor mapping solution. However, there are some dynamic objects such as pedestrians, indoor vehicles, etc. existing in the raw LiDAR range data. They have to be removal for mapping purpose. In this paper, a new approach of dynamic object removing called Likelihood Grid Voting (LGV is presented. It is a model free method and takes full advantage of the high scanning rate of LiDAR, which is moving at a relative low speed in indoor environment. In this method, a counting grid is allocated for recording the occupation of map position by laser scans. The lower counter value of this position can be recognized as dynamic objects and the point cloud will be removed from map. This work is a part of algorithms in our self- developed Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV simultaneous localization and Mapping (SLAM system- NAVIS. Field tests are carried in an indoor parking place with NAVIS to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The result shows that all the small size objects like pedestrians can be detected and removed quickly; large size of objects like cars can be detected and removed partly.

  20. Assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in the Philippines using remote sensing and GIS-based techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macapagal, Marco D.; Olivares, Resi O.; Perez, Gay Jane P.

    2015-01-01

    Drought is a recurrent extreme climate event that can cause crop damage and yield loss, thereby inflicting negative socioeconomic impacts all over the world. According to several climate studies, drought events may be more frequent and more severe as global warming progresses. As an agricultural country, the Philippines is highly susceptible to adverse impacts of drought using remotely sensed information and geographic processing techniques. An agricultural drought vulnerability map identifying croplands that are least vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and most vulnerable to crop water-related stress, was developed. Vulnerability factors, including land use system, irrigation support. Available soil-water holding capacity, as well as satellite-derived evapotranspiration and rainfall, were taken into consideration in classifying and mapping agricultural drought vulnerability at a national level. (author)

  1. Dynamic behavior and chaos control in a complex Riccati-type map ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is devoted to analyze the dynamic behavior of a Riccati- type map with complex variables and complex parameters. Fixed points and their asymptotic stability are studied. Lyapunov exponent is computed to indicate chaos. Bifurcation and chaos are discussed. Chaotic behavior of the map has been controlled by ...

  2. Poincare' maps of impulsed oscillators and two-dimensional dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lupini, R.; Lenci, S.; Gardini, L.; Urbino Univ.

    1996-01-01

    The Poincare' map of one-dimensional linear oscillators subject to periodic, non-linear and time-delayed impulses is shown to reduce to a family of plane maps with possible non-uniqueness of the inverse. By restricting the analysis to a convenient form of the impulse function, a variety of interesting dynamical behaviours in this family are pointed out, including multistability and homoclinic bifurcations. Critical curves of two-dimensional endomorphisms are used to identify the structure of absorbing areas and their bifurcations

  3. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.

  4. Mood-Reactive Self-Esteem and Depression Vulnerability: Person-Specific Symptom Dynamics via Smart Phone Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clasen, Peter C.; Fisher, Aaron J.; Beevers, Christopher G.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theories of depression suggest that mood-reactive self-esteem, a pattern of cognitive reactivity where low self-esteem is temporally dependent on levels of sadness, represents vulnerability for depression. Few studies have directly tested this hypothesis, particularly using intensive data collection methods (i.e., experience sampling) required to capture the temporal dynamics of sadness and self-esteem as they unfold naturally, over time. In this study we used participants’ smartphones to collect multiple daily ratings of sadness and self-esteem over three weeks, in the real world. We then applied dynamic factor modeling to explore theoretically driven hypotheses about the temporal dependency of self-esteem on sadness (i.e., mood-reactive self-esteem) and its relationship to indices of depression vulnerability both contemporaneously (e.g., rumination, sad mood persistence) and prospectively (e.g., future symptomatology). In sum, individuals who demonstrated mood-reactive self-esteem reported higher levels of rumination at baseline, more persistent sad mood over three weeks, and increased depression symptoms at the end of three weeks above and beyond a trait-like index of self-esteem. The integration of smartphone assessment and person-specific analytics employed in this study offers an exiting new avenue to advance the study and treatment of depression. PMID:26131724

  5. Mood-Reactive Self-Esteem and Depression Vulnerability: Person-Specific Symptom Dynamics via Smart Phone Assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter C Clasen

    Full Text Available Cognitive theories of depression suggest that mood-reactive self-esteem, a pattern of cognitive reactivity where low self-esteem is temporally dependent on levels of sadness, represents vulnerability for depression. Few studies have directly tested this hypothesis, particularly using intensive data collection methods (i.e., experience sampling required to capture the temporal dynamics of sadness and self-esteem as they unfold naturally, over time. In this study we used participants' smartphones to collect multiple daily ratings of sadness and self-esteem over three weeks, in the real world. We then applied dynamic factor modeling to explore theoretically driven hypotheses about the temporal dependency of self-esteem on sadness (i.e., mood-reactive self-esteem and its relationship to indices of depression vulnerability both contemporaneously (e.g., rumination, sad mood persistence and prospectively (e.g., future symptomatology. In sum, individuals who demonstrated mood-reactive self-esteem reported higher levels of rumination at baseline, more persistent sad mood over three weeks, and increased depression symptoms at the end of three weeks above and beyond a trait-like index of self-esteem. The integration of smartphone assessment and person-specific analytics employed in this study offers an exiting new avenue to advance the study and treatment of depression.

  6. Mood-Reactive Self-Esteem and Depression Vulnerability: Person-Specific Symptom Dynamics via Smart Phone Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clasen, Peter C; Fisher, Aaron J; Beevers, Christopher G

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theories of depression suggest that mood-reactive self-esteem, a pattern of cognitive reactivity where low self-esteem is temporally dependent on levels of sadness, represents vulnerability for depression. Few studies have directly tested this hypothesis, particularly using intensive data collection methods (i.e., experience sampling) required to capture the temporal dynamics of sadness and self-esteem as they unfold naturally, over time. In this study we used participants' smartphones to collect multiple daily ratings of sadness and self-esteem over three weeks, in the real world. We then applied dynamic factor modeling to explore theoretically driven hypotheses about the temporal dependency of self-esteem on sadness (i.e., mood-reactive self-esteem) and its relationship to indices of depression vulnerability both contemporaneously (e.g., rumination, sad mood persistence) and prospectively (e.g., future symptomatology). In sum, individuals who demonstrated mood-reactive self-esteem reported higher levels of rumination at baseline, more persistent sad mood over three weeks, and increased depression symptoms at the end of three weeks above and beyond a trait-like index of self-esteem. The integration of smartphone assessment and person-specific analytics employed in this study offers an exiting new avenue to advance the study and treatment of depression.

  7. Review of single particle dynamics for third generation light sources through frequency map analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Nadolski

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Frequency map analysis [J. Laskar, Icarus 88, 266 (1990] is used here to analyze the transverse dynamics of four third generation synchrotron light sources: the ALS, the ESRF, the SOLEIL project, and Super-ACO. Time variations of the betatron tunes give additional information for the global dynamics of the beam. The main resonances are revealed; a one-to-one correspondence between the configuration space and the frequency space can be performed. We stress that the frequency maps, and therefore the dynamics optimization, are highly sensitive to sextupolar strengths and vary in a large amount from one machine to another. The frequency maps can thus be used to characterize the different machines.

  8. Mind map learning for advanced engineering study: case study in system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woradechjumroen, Denchai

    2018-01-01

    System Dynamics (SD) is one of the subjects that were use in learning Automatic Control Systems in dynamic and control field. Mathematical modelling and solving skills of students for engineering systems are expecting outcomes of the course which can be further used to efficiently study control systems and mechanical vibration; however, the fundamental of the SD includes strong backgrounds in Dynamics and Differential Equations, which are appropriate to the students in governmental universities that have strong skills in Mathematics and Scientifics. For private universities, students are weak in the above subjects since they obtained high vocational certificate from Technical College or Polytechnic School, which emphasize the learning contents in practice. To enhance their learning for improving their backgrounds, this paper applies mind maps based problem based learning to relate the essential relations of mathematical and physical equations. With the advantages of mind maps, each student is assigned to design individual mind maps for self-leaning development after they attend the class and learn overall picture of each chapter from the class instructor. Four problems based mind maps learning are assigned to each student. Each assignment is evaluated via mid-term and final examinations, which are issued in terms of learning concepts and applications. In the method testing, thirty students are tested and evaluated via student learning backgrounds in the past. The result shows that well-design mind maps can improve learning performance based on outcome evaluation. Especially, mind maps can reduce time-consuming and reviewing for Mathematics and Physics in SD significantly.

  9. Mapping 180° polar domains using electron backscatter diffraction and dynamical scattering simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, Matthew J.; Fancher, Chris M.; Patala, Srikanth [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); De Graef, Marc [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburg, PA (United States); Dickey, Elizabeth C. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2017-02-15

    A novel technique, which directly and nondestructively maps polar domains using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) is described and demonstrated. Through dynamical diffraction simulations and quantitative comparison to experimental EBSD patterns, the absolute orientation of a non-centrosymmetric crystal can be determined. With this information, the polar domains of a material can be mapped. The technique is demonstrated by mapping the non-ferroelastic, or 180°, ferroelectric domains in periodically poled LiNbO{sub 3} single crystals. Further, the authors demonstrate the possibility of mapping polarity using this technique in other polar materials system. - Highlights: • A novel technique to directly polar domains utilizing EBSD is demonstrated. • The technique relies on dynamical diffraction simulations of EBSD patterns. • The technique is demonstrated by mapping 180° domains in LiNbO{sub 3} single crystals. • Further application of this technique to other materials classes is discussed.

  10. From dynamical systems with time-varying delay to circle maps and Koopman operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, David; Otto, Andreas; Radons, Günter

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, we investigate the influence of the retarded access by a time-varying delay on the dynamics of delay systems. We show that there are two universality classes of delays, which lead to fundamental differences in dynamical quantities such as the Lyapunov spectrum. Therefore, we introduce an operator theoretic framework, where the solution operator of the delay system is decomposed into the Koopman operator describing the delay access and an operator similar to the solution operator known from systems with constant delay. The Koopman operator corresponds to an iterated map, called access map, which is defined by the iteration of the delayed argument of the delay equation. The dynamics of this one-dimensional iterated map determines the universality classes of the infinite-dimensional state dynamics governed by the delay differential equation. In this way, we connect the theory of time-delay systems with the theory of circle maps and the framework of the Koopman operator. In this paper, we extend our previous work [A. Otto, D. Müller, and G. Radons, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 044104 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.044104] by elaborating the mathematical details and presenting further results also on the Lyapunov vectors.

  11. Mapping and tracking of moving objects in dynamic environments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pancham, A

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In order for mobile robots to operate in dynamic or real world environments they must be able to localise themselves while building a map of the environment, and detect and track moving objects. This work involves the research and implementation...

  12. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S.

    2016-01-01

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters. PMID:26907313

  13. Dynamical zeta functions and dynamical determinants for hyperbolic maps a functional approach

    CERN Document Server

    Baladi, Viviane

    2018-01-01

    The spectra of transfer operators associated to dynamical systems, when acting on suitable Banach spaces, contain key information about the ergodic properties of the systems. Focusing on expanding and hyperbolic maps, this book gives a self-contained account on the relation between zeroes of dynamical determinants, poles of dynamical zeta functions, and the discrete spectra of the transfer operators. In the hyperbolic case, the first key step consists in constructing a suitable Banach space of anisotropic distributions. The first part of the book is devoted to the easier case of expanding endomorphisms, showing how the (isotropic) function spaces relevant there can be studied via Paley–Littlewood decompositions, and allowing easier access to the construction of the anisotropic spaces which is performed in the second part. This is the first book describing the use of anisotropic spaces in dynamics. Aimed at researchers and graduate students, it presents results and techniques developed since the beginning of...

  14. Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S G; Shrestha, S; Kinney, P L; Ross, Z; Sheridan, S C; Pantea, C I; Hsu, W H; Muscatiello, N; Hwang, S A

    2017-12-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in New York State (NYS) and have been linked with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality. But these effects are not uniform across the state and can vary across large regions due to regional sociodemographic and environmental factors which impact an individual's response or adaptive capacity to heat and in turn contribute to vulnerability among certain populations. We developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-vulnerable populations and regions in NYS. Census tract level environmental and sociodemographic heat-vulnerability variables were used to develop the HVI to identify heat-vulnerable populations and areas. Variables were identified from a comprehensive literature review and climate-health research in NYS. We obtained data from 2010 US Census Bureau and 2011 National Land Cover Database. We used principal component analysis to reduce correlated variables to fewer uncorrelated components, and then calculated the cumulative HVI for each census tract by summing up the scores across the components. The HVI was then mapped across NYS (excluding New York City) to display spatial vulnerability. The prevalence rates of heat stress were compared across HVI score categories. Thirteen variables were reduced to four meaningful components representing 1) social/language vulnerability; 2) socioeconomic vulnerability; 3) environmental/urban vulnerability; and 4) elderly/ social isolation. Vulnerability to heat varied spatially in NYS with the HVI showing that metropolitan areas were most vulnerable, with language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to the most vulnerability. Reliability of the HVI was supported by preliminary results where higher rates of heat stress were collocated in the regions with the highest HVI. The NYS HVI showed spatial variability in heat vulnerability across the state. Mapping the HVI allows quick identification of regions in NYS that could

  15. Analytical description of critical dynamics for two-dimensional dissipative nonlinear maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Méndez-Bermúdez, J.A.; Oliveira, Juliano A. de; Leonel, Edson D.

    2016-01-01

    The critical dynamics near the transition from unlimited to limited action diffusion for two families of well known dissipative nonlinear maps, namely the dissipative standard and dissipative discontinuous maps, is characterized by the use of an analytical approach. The approach is applied to explicitly obtain the average squared action as a function of the (discrete) time and the parameters controlling nonlinearity and dissipation. This allows to obtain a set of critical exponents so far obtained numerically in the literature. The theoretical predictions are verified by extensive numerical simulations. We conclude that all possible dynamical cases, independently on the map parameter values and initial conditions, collapse into the universal exponential decay of the properly normalized average squared action as a function of a normalized time. The formalism developed here can be extended to many other different types of mappings therefore making the methodology generic and robust. - Highlights: • We analytically approach scaling properties of a family of two-dimensional dissipative nonlinear maps. • We derive universal scaling functions that were obtained before only approximately. • We predict the unexpected condition where diffusion and dissipation compensate each other exactly. • We find a new universal scaling function that embraces all possible dissipative behaviors.

  16. analysis and mapping of climate change risk and vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, to determine the degree of climate risk and the relative vulnerability of the districts, to climate .... widely used index for quantifying drought, was extracted from ... semivariogram/Covariance model) in ArcGIS 9.3.

  17. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

  18. Assessment of Intrinsic Vulnerability to Contamination for the Alluvial Aquifer in El-Fayoum Depression Using the Drastic Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, M.A.

    2012-01-01

    Intrinsic vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and land use planning. The vulnerability for the alluvial aquifer in El-Fayoum depression was assessed by applying the Drastic model as well as utilizing sensitivity analyses to evaluate the reliability of this model. This method uses seven parameters including climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by applying the Generic and Agricultural models according to the Drastic charter. The resulting agricultural Drastic vulnerability map indicates that 23.3%, 22.7% and 12.4% of El-Fayoum depression is under low, low-moderate and moderately high vulnerability of groundwater contamination, respectively, while 41.6% of the area of study can be designated as an area of moderate vulnerability of groundwater contamination. Resulting maps revealed that the potential for polluting groundwater with agricultural chemicals is greater than with Generic Drastic index pollutants. Depth to water table parameter inflicted the largest impact on the intrinsic vulnerability of the alluvial aquifer in El-Fayoum depression. Both the map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses indicated that the vulnerability index is the least sensitive to the removal of the recharge and hydraulic conductivity parameters but is highly sensitive to the removal of depth to water parameter.

  19. Spectral decomposition of the stretching dynamics of the Arnold cat map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Hiroshi H.; Driebe, Dean J.; Li, C.-B.

    2003-01-01

    Using the Markov partition of the Arnold cat map on the covering space allows for the introduction of a stable basis in which the Frobenius-Perron operator may be decomposed. We consider in detail the stretching dynamics on the partition of the transformation that yields the cat map under two iterations. The discrete decay modes of the system are constructed

  20. Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

    2006-12-01

    The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

  1. Neural dynamics of the cognitive map in the hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagatsuma, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Yoko

    2007-06-01

    The rodent hippocampus has been thought to represent the spatial environment as a cognitive map. In the classical theory, the cognitive map has been explained as a consequence of the fact that different spatial regions are assigned to different cell populations in the framework of rate coding. Recently, the relation between place cell firing and local field oscillation theta in terms of theta phase precession was experimentally discovered and suggested as a temporal coding mechanism leading to memory formation of behavioral sequences accompanied with asymmetric Hebbian plasticity. The cognitive map theory is apparently outside of the sequence memory view. Therefore, theoretical analysis is necessary to consider the biological neural dynamics for the sequence encoding of the memory of behavioral sequences, providing the cognitive map formation. In this article, we summarize the theoretical neural dynamics of the real-time sequence encoding by theta phase precession, called theta phase coding, and review a series of theoretical models with the theta phase coding that we previously reported. With respect to memory encoding functions, instantaneous memory formation of one-time experience was first demonstrated, and then the ability of integration of memories of behavioral sequences into a network of the cognitive map was shown. In terms of memory retrieval functions, theta phase coding enables the hippocampus to represent the spatial location in the current behavioral context even with ambiguous sensory input when multiple sequences were coded. Finally, for utilization, retrieved temporal sequences in the hippocampus can be available for action selection, through the process of reverting theta rhythm-dependent activities to information in the behavioral time scale. This theoretical approach allows us to investigate how the behavioral sequences are encoded, updated, retrieved and used in the hippocampus, as the real-time interaction with the external environment. It may

  2. Land Use Management by Assessing Aquifer Vulnerability in Khovayes Plain Using the DRASTIC and SINTACS Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Mousavi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Land use change is a gradual process that entails dire consequences for groundwater quality and quantity. Quantitative changes in groundwater can be usually monitored by controlling the annual groundwater balance. Monitoring qualitative changes in groundwater, however, is both time-consuming and expensive. DRASTIC and SINTACS models exploit aquifer properties to predict its vulnerability. In this study, aquifer vulnerability assessment was performed by the DRASTIC & SINTACS models for future land use management in Khovayes, southwest Iran. The DRASTIC Model is based on hydrological and hydrogeological parameters involved in contaminant transport. SINTACS parameters are the same as those of the DRASTIC model, except that weighting and ranking the parameters are more flexible. Once vulnerability maps of the study region had been prepared, they were verified against the nitrate map. A correlation coefficient of 0.4 was obtained between the DRASTIC map and the nitrate one while the correlation between the SINTACS and the nitrate maps was found to be 0.8. Map removal and single-parameter sensitivity analyses were carried out, which showed the southwestern stretches of the study area as the region with the highest risk of vulnerability.

  3. Aquifer Vulnerability Investigation Using Geoelectric Method in Parts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The generated longitudinal conductance map showed poor protective capacity ... capacity makes the aquifer in the study area vulnerable to contamination ..... Sedimentation and Structure of the Niger Delta. ... Direct application of the Dar.

  4. Building Blocks: A Quantitative Approach for Evaluating Coastal Vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Komali Kantamaneni

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and associated factors such as global and regional sea-level rise; the upsurge in high-intensity flooding events; and coastal erosion are pulse and press disturbances that threaten to increase landslides in coastal regions. Under these circumstances; a rigorous framework is required to evaluate coastal vulnerability in order to plan for future climate change scenarios. A vast majority of coastal vulnerability assessments across the globe are evaluated at the macro level (city scale but not at the micro level (small town scale; particularly in the United Kingdom (UK. In order to fill this vital research gap; the current study established a coastal vulnerability index termed here as the Micro Town Coastal Vulnerability Index (MTCVI and then applied it to Barton-on-Sea; which is a small coastal town of the Hampshire region; England; UK. MTCVI was evaluated for Barton-on-Sea coastal vulnerability by integrating both novel and existing parameters. Results suggest that the entire shoreline frontage (2 km exhibits very high coastal vulnerability and is prone to various coastal hazards such as landslides; erosion; and wave intrusion. This suggests that Barton-on-Sea coastal amenities will require a substantial improvement in shoreline protection measures. In this study; GIS (geographic information system coastal vulnerability and landslide maps were generated; and these maps can be used by the local authorities; district councils; coastal engineers; and planners to improve and design coastal management strategies under the climate change scenarios. Meanwhile; the methodology used in this study could also be applied to any other suitable location in the world depending on the availability of the data.

  5. Genetic Vulnerability and the Relationship of Commercial Germplasms of Maize in Brazil with the Nested Association Mapping Parents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciano Rogério Braatz de Andrade

    Full Text Available A few breeding companies dominate the maize (Zea mays L. hybrid market in Brazil: Monsanto® (35%, DuPont Pioneer® (30%, Dow Agrosciences® (15%, Syngenta® (10% and Helix Sementes (4%. Therefore, it is important to monitor the genetic diversity in commercial germplasms as breeding practices, registration and marketing of new cultivars can lead to a significant reduction of the genetic diversity. Reduced genetic variation may lead to crop vulnerabilities, food insecurity and limited genetic gains following selection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic vulnerability risk by examining the relationship between the commercial Brazilian maize germplasms and the Nested Association Mapping (NAM Parents. For this purpose, we used the commercial hybrids with the largest market share in Brazil and the NAM parents. The hybrids were genotyped for 768 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, using the Illumina Goldengate® platform. The NAM parent genomic data, comprising 1,536 SNPs for each line, were obtained from the Panzea data bank. The population structure, genetic diversity and the correlation between allele frequencies were analyzed. Based on the estimated effective population size and genetic variability, it was found that there is a low risk of genetic vulnerability in the commercial Brazilian maize germplasms. However, the genetic diversity is lower than those found in the NAM parents. Furthermore, the Brazilian germplasms presented no close relations with most NAM parents, except B73. This indicates that B73, or its heterotic group (Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic, contributed to the development of the commercial Brazilian germplasms.

  6. Genetic Vulnerability and the Relationship of Commercial Germplasms of Maize in Brazil with the Nested Association Mapping Parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luciano Rogério Braatz de; Fritsche Neto, Roberto; Granato, Ítalo Stefanine Correia; Sant'Ana, Gustavo César; Morais, Pedro Patric Pinho; Borém, Aluízio

    2016-01-01

    A few breeding companies dominate the maize (Zea mays L.) hybrid market in Brazil: Monsanto® (35%), DuPont Pioneer® (30%), Dow Agrosciences® (15%), Syngenta® (10%) and Helix Sementes (4%). Therefore, it is important to monitor the genetic diversity in commercial germplasms as breeding practices, registration and marketing of new cultivars can lead to a significant reduction of the genetic diversity. Reduced genetic variation may lead to crop vulnerabilities, food insecurity and limited genetic gains following selection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic vulnerability risk by examining the relationship between the commercial Brazilian maize germplasms and the Nested Association Mapping (NAM) Parents. For this purpose, we used the commercial hybrids with the largest market share in Brazil and the NAM parents. The hybrids were genotyped for 768 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), using the Illumina Goldengate® platform. The NAM parent genomic data, comprising 1,536 SNPs for each line, were obtained from the Panzea data bank. The population structure, genetic diversity and the correlation between allele frequencies were analyzed. Based on the estimated effective population size and genetic variability, it was found that there is a low risk of genetic vulnerability in the commercial Brazilian maize germplasms. However, the genetic diversity is lower than those found in the NAM parents. Furthermore, the Brazilian germplasms presented no close relations with most NAM parents, except B73. This indicates that B73, or its heterotic group (Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic), contributed to the development of the commercial Brazilian germplasms.

  7. Genetic Vulnerability and the Relationship of Commercial Germplasms of Maize in Brazil with the Nested Association Mapping Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritsche Neto, Roberto; Granato, Ítalo Stefanine Correia; Sant’Ana, Gustavo César; Morais, Pedro Patric Pinho; Borém, Aluízio

    2016-01-01

    A few breeding companies dominate the maize (Zea mays L.) hybrid market in Brazil: Monsanto® (35%), DuPont Pioneer® (30%), Dow Agrosciences® (15%), Syngenta® (10%) and Helix Sementes (4%). Therefore, it is important to monitor the genetic diversity in commercial germplasms as breeding practices, registration and marketing of new cultivars can lead to a significant reduction of the genetic diversity. Reduced genetic variation may lead to crop vulnerabilities, food insecurity and limited genetic gains following selection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic vulnerability risk by examining the relationship between the commercial Brazilian maize germplasms and the Nested Association Mapping (NAM) Parents. For this purpose, we used the commercial hybrids with the largest market share in Brazil and the NAM parents. The hybrids were genotyped for 768 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), using the Illumina Goldengate® platform. The NAM parent genomic data, comprising 1,536 SNPs for each line, were obtained from the Panzea data bank. The population structure, genetic diversity and the correlation between allele frequencies were analyzed. Based on the estimated effective population size and genetic variability, it was found that there is a low risk of genetic vulnerability in the commercial Brazilian maize germplasms. However, the genetic diversity is lower than those found in the NAM parents. Furthermore, the Brazilian germplasms presented no close relations with most NAM parents, except B73. This indicates that B73, or its heterotic group (Iowa Stiff Stalk Synthetic), contributed to the development of the commercial Brazilian germplasms. PMID:27780247

  8. Dynamic Approximate Entropy Electroanatomic Maps Detect Rotors in a Simulated Atrial Fibrillation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugarte, Juan P.; Orozco-Duque, Andrés; Tobón, Catalina; Kremen, Vaclav; Novak, Daniel; Saiz, Javier; Oesterlein, Tobias; Schmitt, Clauss; Luik, Armin; Bustamante, John

    2014-01-01

    There is evidence that rotors could be drivers that maintain atrial fibrillation. Complex fractionated atrial electrograms have been located in rotor tip areas. However, the concept of electrogram fractionation, defined using time intervals, is still controversial as a tool for locating target sites for ablation. We hypothesize that the fractionation phenomenon is better described using non-linear dynamic measures, such as approximate entropy, and that this tool could be used for locating the rotor tip. The aim of this work has been to determine the relationship between approximate entropy and fractionated electrograms, and to develop a new tool for rotor mapping based on fractionation levels. Two episodes of chronic atrial fibrillation were simulated in a 3D human atrial model, in which rotors were observed. Dynamic approximate entropy maps were calculated using unipolar electrogram signals generated over the whole surface of the 3D atrial model. In addition, we optimized the approximate entropy calculation using two real multi-center databases of fractionated electrogram signals, labeled in 4 levels of fractionation. We found that the values of approximate entropy and the levels of fractionation are positively correlated. This allows the dynamic approximate entropy maps to localize the tips from stable and meandering rotors. Furthermore, we assessed the optimized approximate entropy using bipolar electrograms generated over a vicinity enclosing a rotor, achieving rotor detection. Our results suggest that high approximate entropy values are able to detect a high level of fractionation and to locate rotor tips in simulated atrial fibrillation episodes. We suggest that dynamic approximate entropy maps could become a tool for atrial fibrillation rotor mapping. PMID:25489858

  9. Dynamic approximate entropy electroanatomic maps detect rotors in a simulated atrial fibrillation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugarte, Juan P; Orozco-Duque, Andrés; Tobón, Catalina; Kremen, Vaclav; Novak, Daniel; Saiz, Javier; Oesterlein, Tobias; Schmitt, Clauss; Luik, Armin; Bustamante, John

    2014-01-01

    There is evidence that rotors could be drivers that maintain atrial fibrillation. Complex fractionated atrial electrograms have been located in rotor tip areas. However, the concept of electrogram fractionation, defined using time intervals, is still controversial as a tool for locating target sites for ablation. We hypothesize that the fractionation phenomenon is better described using non-linear dynamic measures, such as approximate entropy, and that this tool could be used for locating the rotor tip. The aim of this work has been to determine the relationship between approximate entropy and fractionated electrograms, and to develop a new tool for rotor mapping based on fractionation levels. Two episodes of chronic atrial fibrillation were simulated in a 3D human atrial model, in which rotors were observed. Dynamic approximate entropy maps were calculated using unipolar electrogram signals generated over the whole surface of the 3D atrial model. In addition, we optimized the approximate entropy calculation using two real multi-center databases of fractionated electrogram signals, labeled in 4 levels of fractionation. We found that the values of approximate entropy and the levels of fractionation are positively correlated. This allows the dynamic approximate entropy maps to localize the tips from stable and meandering rotors. Furthermore, we assessed the optimized approximate entropy using bipolar electrograms generated over a vicinity enclosing a rotor, achieving rotor detection. Our results suggest that high approximate entropy values are able to detect a high level of fractionation and to locate rotor tips in simulated atrial fibrillation episodes. We suggest that dynamic approximate entropy maps could become a tool for atrial fibrillation rotor mapping.

  10. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  11. Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Dougill

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1 different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2 rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3 the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.

  12. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  13. Ozone distribution in remote ecologically vulnerable terrain of the southern Sierra Nevada, CA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panek, Jeanne; Saah, David; Esperanza, Annie; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Fraczek, Witold; Cisneros, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Ozone concentration spatial patterns remain largely uncharacterized across the extensive wilderness areas of the Sierra Nevada, CA, despite being downwind of major pollution sources. These natural areas, including four national parks and four national forests, contain forest species that are susceptible to ozone injury. Forests stressed by ozone are also more vulnerable to other agents of mortality, including insects, pathogens, climate change, and ultimately fire. Here we analyze three years of passive ozone monitor data from the southern Sierra Nevada and interpolate landscape-scale spatial and temporal patterns during the summer-through-fall high ozone concentration period. Segmentation analysis revealed three types of ozone exposure sub-regions: high, low, and variable. Consistently high ozone exposure regions are expected to be most vulnerable to forest mortality. One high exposure sub-region has been documented elsewhere as being further vulnerable to increased drought and fire potential. Identifying such hot-spots of forest vulnerability has utility for prioritizing management. -- Highlights: •Three years of passive ozone sampler data over 49,000 km 2 were analyzed spatially. •Spatial and temporal ozone patterns were mapped across the Sierra Nevada, CA. •Sub-regions of consistently high, low and variable ozone exposure were identified. •The 1700–2400 m elevation band delineated a distinct break in ozone concentration. •This approach has utility for prioritizing management across vulnerable landscapes. -- A passive ozone sampler network in combination with spatial analysis techniques was used to characterize landscape-scale ozone patterns and dynamics, identifying regions of consistently high and low ozone exposure for forest management prioritization

  14. A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J; Rodríguez, Ernesto

    2018-05-01

    Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate

  15. A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J.; Rodríguez, Ernesto

    2018-05-01

    Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate

  16. Geospatial techniques for allocating vulnerability zoning of geohazards along the Karakorum Highway, Gilgit-Baltistan-Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, K. M.; Rashid, S.; Yaseen, M.; Ikram, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Karakoram Highway (KKH) 'eighth wonder of the world', constructed and completed by the consent of Pakistan and China in 1979 as a Friendship Highway. It connect Gilgit-Baltistan, a strategically prominent region of Pakistan, with Xinjiang region in China. Due to manifold geology/geomorphology, soil formation, steep slopes, climate change well as unsustainable anthropogenic activities, still, KKH is remarkably vulnerable to natural hazards i.e. land subsistence, landslides, erosion, rock fall, floods, debris flows, cyclical torrential rainfall and snowfall, lake outburst etc. Most of the time these geohazard's damaging effects jeopardized the life in the region. To ascertain the nature and frequency of the disaster and vulnerability zoning, a rating and management (logistic) analysis were made to investigate the spatiotemporal sharing of the natural hazard. The substantial dynamics of the physiograpy, geology, geomorphology, soils and climate were carefully understand while slope, aspect, elevation, profile curvature and rock hardness was calculated by different techniques. To assess the nature and intensity geospatial analysis were conducted and magnitude of every factor was gauged by using logistic regression. Moreover, ever relative variable was integrated in the evaluation process. Logistic regression and geospatial techniques were used to map the geohazard vulnerability zoning (GVZ). The GVZ model findings were endorsed by the reviews of documented hazards in the current years and the precision was realized more than 88.1 %. The study has proved the model authentication by highlighting the comfortable indenture among the vulnerability mapping and past documented hazards. By using a receiver operating characteristic curve, the logistic regression model made satisfactory results. The outcomes will be useful in sustainable land use and infrastructure planning, mainly in high risk zones for reduceing economic damages and community betterment.

  17. Resonant forcing of multidimensional chaotic map dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Glenn; Hübler, Alfred W; Dahmen, Karin

    2007-03-01

    We study resonances of chaotic map dynamics. We use the calculus of variations to determine the additive forcing function that induces the largest response. We find that resonant forcing functions complement the separation of nearby trajectories, in that the product of the displacement of nearby trajectories and the resonant forcing is a conserved quantity. As a consequence, the resonant function will have the same periodicity as the displacement dynamics, and if the displacement dynamics is irregular, then the resonant forcing function will be irregular as well. Furthermore, we show that resonant forcing functions of chaotic systems decrease exponentially, where the rate equals the negative of the largest Lyapunov exponent of the unperturbed system. We compare the response to optimal forcing with random forcing and find that the optimal forcing is particularly effective if the largest Lyapunov exponent is significantly larger than the other Lyapunov exponents. However, if the largest Lyapunov exponent is much larger than unity, then the optimal forcing decreases rapidly and is only as effective as a single-push forcing.

  18. Dynamic Digital Maps as Vehicles for Distributing Digital Geologic Maps and Embedded Analytical Data and Multimedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condit, C. D.; Mninch, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Dynamic Digital Map (DDM) is an ideal vehicle for the professional geologist to use to describe the geologic setting of key sites to the public in a format that integrates and presents maps and associated analytical data and multimedia without the need for an ArcGIS interface. Maps with field trip guide stops that include photographs, movies and figures and animations, showing, for example, how the features seen in the field formed, or how data might be best visualized in "time-frame" sequences are ideally included in DDMs. DDMs distribute geologic maps, images, movies, analytical data, and text such as field guides, in an integrated cross-platform, web enabled format that are intuitive to use, easily and quickly searchable, and require no additional proprietary software to operate. Maps, photos, movies and animations are stored outside the program, which acts as an organizational framework and index to present these data. Once created, the DDM can be downloaded from the web site hosting it in the flavor matching the user's operating system (e.g. Linux, Windows and Macintosh) as zip, dmg or tar files (and soon as iOS and Android tablet apps). When decompressed, the DDM can then access its associated data directly from that site with no browser needed. Alternatively, the entire package can be distributed and used from CD, DVD, or flash-memory storage. The intent of this presentation is to introduce the variety of geology that can be accessed from the over 25 DDMs created to date, concentrating on the DDM of the Springerville Volcanic Field. We will highlight selected features of some of them, introduce a simplified interface to the original DDM (that we renamed DDMC for Classic) and give a brief look at a the recently (2010-2011) completed geologic maps of the Springerville Volcanic field to see examples of each of the features discussed above, and a display of the integrated analytical data set. We will also highlight the differences between the classic or

  19. Dynamical prediction and pattern mapping in short-term load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aguirre, Luis Antonio; Rodrigues, Daniela D.; Lima, Silvio T. [Departamento de Engenharia Eletronica, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Martinez, Carlos Barreira [Departamento de Engenharia Hidraulica e Recursos Hidricos, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2008-01-15

    This work will not put forward yet another scheme for short-term load forecasting but rather will provide evidences that may improve our understanding about fundamental issues which underlay load forecasting problems. In particular, load forecasting will be decomposed into two main problems, namely dynamical prediction and pattern mapping. It is argued that whereas the latter is essentially static and becomes nonlinear when weekly features in the data are taken into account, the former might not be deterministic at all. In such cases there is no determinism (serial correlations) in the data apart from the average cycle and the best a model can do is to perform pattern mapping. Moreover, when there is determinism in addition to the average cycle, the underlying dynamics are sometimes linear, in which case there is no need to resort to nonlinear models to perform dynamical prediction. Such conclusions were confirmed using real load data and surrogate data analysis. In a sense, the paper details and organizes some general beliefs found in the literature on load forecasting. This sheds some light on real model-building and forecasting problems and helps understand some apparently conflicting results reported in the literature. (author)

  20. Robustness and Vulnerability of Networks with Dynamical Dependency Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Ya-Nan; Huang, Ning; Wang, Lei; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2016-11-28

    The dependency property and self-recovery of failure nodes both have great effects on the robustness of networks during the cascading process. Existing investigations focused mainly on the failure mechanism of static dependency groups without considering the time-dependency of interdependent nodes and the recovery mechanism in reality. In this study, we present an evolving network model consisting of failure mechanisms and a recovery mechanism to explore network robustness, where the dependency relations among nodes vary over time. Based on generating function techniques, we provide an analytical framework for random networks with arbitrary degree distribution. In particular, we theoretically find that an abrupt percolation transition exists corresponding to the dynamical dependency groups for a wide range of topologies after initial random removal. Moreover, when the abrupt transition point is above the failure threshold of dependency groups, the evolving network with the larger dependency groups is more vulnerable; when below it, the larger dependency groups make the network more robust. Numerical simulations employing the Erdős-Rényi network and Barabási-Albert scale free network are performed to validate our theoretical results.

  1. Vulnerability assessment of the Toluca Valley aquifer combining a parametric approach and advective transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gárfias, J.; Llanos, H.; Franco, R.; Martel, R.

    2017-01-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment is an important task in water resources and land management. Depending on the availability of data and the complexity of the hydrogeological conditions, different approaches can be adopted. As an alternative, this study involves the use of a combined approach based on vulnerability methods and advective particle tracking to better understand the susceptibility to contamination in the Toluca valley aquifer. An intrinsic vulnerability map (DRASTIC) was used to identify areas that are more susceptible to ground water contamination. To estimate advective particle tracking, we developed a 3D flow model using VisualModflow and MODPATH to describe the regional flow of groundwater. The vulnerability map demonstrates the problematic application and interpretation of qualitative the vulnerability method of the parametric system group, which indicates a difference of approximately 23% when compared with the modified vulnerability map. Potential contamination sources based on landfill sites were comparatively high; approximately 76% are located in areas that could be susceptible to contamination through vertical infiltration, especially those that are located along the Lerma system of wells. Industrial parks located in the centre of the valley (83%), where continuous extraction of groundwater and land subsidence occurs, have been classified as high vulnerability zones, increasing the risk of contaminants from surface sources reaching the groundwater. In order to understand the susceptibility to contamination in the aquifer, various delineation approaches should be adopted and all the results that validate each other should be considered, thus making a good strategy for implementing different degrees of protection measures. [es

  2. Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

  3. Studies of phase return map and symbolic dynamics in a periodically driven Hodgkin—Huxley neuron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Jiong; Zhang Hong; Tong Qin-Ye; Chen Zhuo

    2014-01-01

    How neuronal spike trains encode external information is a hot topic in neurodynamics studies. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical states of the Hodgkin—Huxley neuron under periodic forcing. Depending on the parameters of the stimulus, the neuron exhibits periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic spike trains. In order to analyze these spike trains quantitatively, we use the phase return map to describe the dynamical behavior on a one-dimensional (1D) map. According to the monotonicity or discontinuous point of the 1D map, the spike trains are transformed into symbolic sequences by implementing a coarse-grained algorithm — symbolic dynamics. Based on the ordering rules of symbolic dynamics, the parameters of the external stimulus can be measured in high resolution with finite length symbolic sequences. A reasonable explanation for why the nervous system can discriminate or cognize the small change of the external signals in a short time is also presented. (general)

  4. Quantum measurement and dynamical maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudarshan, E.C.G.

    1985-01-01

    The problem of measurement in a quantum system involves the interaction of a classical system with only a small number of degrees of freedom ('measuring apparatus') coupled to the quantum system which is being subjected to measurement. It has been the practice to think of the measuring apparatus as a quantum system with a very large number of degrees of freedom treated in the classical limit. It is, however, possible to formulate the problem in such a manner that the measuring apparatus is a classical system with a finite number of degrees of freedom; this involves the perception of the classical system as the projection of a quantum system. The use of dynamical maps, which are discussed in this paper, is shown to be of benefit in tackling this problem. (UK)

  5. Economic vulnerability of timber resources to forest fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    y Silva, Francisco Rodríguez; Molina, Juan Ramón; González-Cabán, Armando; Machuca, Miguel Ángel Herrera

    2012-06-15

    The temporal-spatial planning of activities for a territorial fire management program requires knowing the value of forest ecosystems. In this paper we extend to and apply the economic valuation principle to the concept of economic vulnerability and present a methodology for the economic valuation of the forest production ecosystems. The forest vulnerability is analyzed from criteria intrinsically associated to the forest characterization, and to the potential behavior of surface fires. Integrating a mapping process of fire potential and analytical valuation algorithms facilitates the implementation of fire prevention planning. The availability of cartography of economic vulnerability of the forest ecosystems is fundamental for budget optimization, and to help in the decision making process. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Mapping the vulnerability hotspots over Hindu-Kush Himalaya region to flooding disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shada Elalem

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A disproportionate share of the global economic and human losses caused by environmental shocks is borne by people in the developing nations. The mountain region of Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH in South Asia is threatened by numerous flooding events annually. An efficient disaster risk reduction often needs to rest upon location-based synoptic view of vulnerability. Resolving this deficit improves the ability to take risk reduction measures in a cost-effective way, and in doing so, strengthens the resilience of societies to flooding disasters. The central aim of this research is to identify the vulnerable locations across HKH boundary from the perspective of reported history of economic and human impacts due to occurrence of flooding disasters. A detailed analysis indicates a very high spatial heterogeneity in flooding disaster occurrence in the past 6 decades. The most recent decade reported highest number of disasters and greater spatial coverage as compared to the earlier decades. The data indicates that, in general, economic impacts of flooding disasters were notably higher in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal. On the other hand, vulnerability scenarios with respect to human impacts were diverse for different countries. In terms of morbidity and mortality, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan and India were detected to be most susceptible to human impacts. Although Bhutan had seen lesser number of flooding disasters, higher population living within disaster prone region make them vulnerable. In summary, complex interactions between natural and socio-economic conditions play a dominant role to define and characterize the type and magnitude of vulnerability of HKH countries to disaster occurrence and their economic and human impacts.

  7. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  8. New segmentation-based tone mapping algorithm for high dynamic range image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Weiwei; Guo, Huinan; Zhou, Zuofeng; Huang, Huimin; Cao, Jianzhong

    2017-07-01

    The traditional tone mapping algorithm for the display of high dynamic range (HDR) image has the drawback of losing the impression of brightness, contrast and color information. To overcome this phenomenon, we propose a new tone mapping algorithm based on dividing the image into different exposure regions in this paper. Firstly, the over-exposure region is determined using the Local Binary Pattern information of HDR image. Then, based on the peak and average gray of the histogram, the under-exposure and normal-exposure region of HDR image are selected separately. Finally, the different exposure regions are mapped by differentiated tone mapping methods to get the final result. The experiment results show that the proposed algorithm achieve the better performance both in visual quality and objective contrast criterion than other algorithms.

  9. Dynamical zeta functions for piecewise monotone maps of the interval

    CERN Document Server

    Ruelle, David

    2004-01-01

    Consider a space M, a map f:M\\to M, and a function g:M \\to {\\mathbb C}. The formal power series \\zeta (z) = \\exp \\sum ^\\infty _{m=1} \\frac {z^m}{m} \\sum _{x \\in \\mathrm {Fix}\\,f^m} \\prod ^{m-1}_{k=0} g (f^kx) yields an example of a dynamical zeta function. Such functions have unexpected analytic properties and interesting relations to the theory of dynamical systems, statistical mechanics, and the spectral theory of certain operators (transfer operators). The first part of this monograph presents a general introduction to this subject. The second part is a detailed study of the zeta functions associated with piecewise monotone maps of the interval [0,1]. In particular, Ruelle gives a proof of a generalized form of the Baladi-Keller theorem relating the poles of \\zeta (z) and the eigenvalues of the transfer operator. He also proves a theorem expressing the largest eigenvalue of the transfer operator in terms of the ergodic properties of (M,f,g).

  10. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oni, T. E.; Omosuyi, G. O.; Akinlalu, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m in (41) different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness) were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement). The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer) and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing). The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1-0.19) area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area.

  11. Spatial Modelling of Urban Physical Vulnerability to Explosion Hazards Using GIS and Fuzzy MCDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser Ebrahimian Ghajari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Most of the world’s population is concentrated in accumulated spaces in the form of cities, making the concept of urban planning a significant issue for consideration by decision makers. Urban vulnerability is a major issue which arises in urban management, and is simply defined as how vulnerable various structures in a city are to different hazards. Reducing urban vulnerability and enhancing resilience are considered to be essential steps towards achieving urban sustainability. To date, a vast body of literature has focused on investigating urban systems’ vulnerabilities with regard to natural hazards. However, less attention has been paid to vulnerabilities resulting from man-made hazards. This study proposes to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings in District 6 of Tehran, Iran, with respect to intentional explosion hazards. A total of 14 vulnerability criteria are identified according to the opinions of various experts, and standard maps for each of these criteria have been generated in a GIS environment. Ultimately, an ordered weighted averaging (OWA technique was applied to generate vulnerability maps for different risk conditions. The results of the present study indicate that only about 25 percent of buildings in the study area have a low level of vulnerability under moderate risk conditions. Sensitivity analysis further illustrates the robustness of the results obtained. Finally, the paper concludes by arguing that local authorities must focus more on risk-reduction techniques in order to reduce physical vulnerability and achieve urban sustainability.

  12. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  13. Hepatic blood flow mapping by dynamic CT method in liver diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugano, Shigeo; Mizuyosi, Hideo; Okajima, Tsugio; Ishii, Kouji; Abei, Tohru; Machida, Keiichi

    1986-01-01

    Two parameters of dynamic CT, peak time (PT) and first moment (M1), were compared among healthy control, chronic hepatitis (CH) and liver cirrhosis (LC). The means of PT and M1 in each 9 (3 x 3) pixels on a slice of hepatic CT were computed and converted to gray spots by gray scale, so that deep gray represented high values and light gray low values of these parameters. The distribution of these gray spots in each pixels was depicted on the slice as a blood flow mapping, and it was compared among the groups. In normal control, dynamic CT showed the shortest PT and deep gray spots were distributed diffusely in the slice. In CH, where PT was longer than control, lighter gray spots were diffusely seen. LC had the longest PT and its mapping showed mottles of light gray and black, the latter indicating the presence of spots with scanty blood flow, scattering throughout the slice. The mapping of M1 gave almost the same picture as PT for each group, revieling that the disappearring time of the media in CH and LC was impaired in the same manner as in PT. This method of hepatic blood flow mapping was thought to be useful to add evidences for the understanding of abnormal blood flow in liver diseases. (author)

  14. Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2015-01-01

    Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

  15. An assessment of flood vulnerability on physical development along ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mohammad

    Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION ... hydraulic and other control structures.” The effects of floods are always ..... An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood risk zones in ...

  16. The vulnerability of the free aquifers using functions of time of trip

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betancur Vargas, Teresita; Wills Betancur, Beatriz Amparo; Rueda Gallo, Orfely Maria

    1999-01-01

    The determination of an aquifers vulnerability degree represents a support instrument for hydraulic resources management. It is also important for territory ordering and planning because it guarantors groundwater conservation. Achieving the determination of procedures for vulnerability maps construction, using measurable parameters, integrated as a function, is a practical methodology with very important and vantages over traditional methodologies. It is considered that the pollutant trip time from the surface to the aquifers is a good vulnerability indicator

  17. Mapping cropping patterns in irrigated rice fields in West Java: Towards mapping vulnerability to flooding using time-series MODIS imageries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sianturi, Riswan; Jetten, V. G.; Sartohadi, Junun

    2018-04-01

    Information on the vulnerability to flooding is vital to understand the potential damages from flood events. A method to determine the vulnerability to flooding in irrigated rice fields using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was proposed in this study. In doing so, the time-series EVI derived from time-series 8 day 500 m spatial resolution MODIS imageries (MOD09A1) was used to generate cropping patterns in irrigated rice fields in West Java. Cropping patterns were derived from the spatial distribution and phenology metrics so that it is possible to show the variation of vulnerability in space and time. Vulnerability curves and cropping patterns were used to determine the vulnerability to flooding in irrigated rice fields. Cropping patterns capture the shift in the vulnerability, which may lead to either an increase or decrease of the degree of damage in rice fields of origin and other rice fields. The comparison of rice field areas between MOD09A1 and ALOS PALSAR and MOD09A1 and Agricultural Statistics showed consistent results with R2 = 0.81 and R2 = 0.93, respectively. The estimated and observed DOYs showed RMSEs = 9.21, 9.29, and 9.69 days for the Start of Season (SOS), heading stage, and End of Season (EOS), respectively. Using the method, one can estimate the relative damage provided available information on the flood depth and velocity. The results of the study may support the efforts to reduce the potential damages from flooding in irrigated rice fields.

  18. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  19. Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

  20. Urban heritage value and seismic vulnerability mapping: challenges for engineering and architectural assessments. Case study of a protected area in Bucharest, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil-Sever GEORGESCU

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluates the urban heritage situation at almost four decades after the Bucharest, March 4, 1977 earthquake disaster, followed by a razing of the present Civic Center area and a large-scale remodeling project. The first results of the URBASRISK Project (2012 are presented as a contribution to a new multi-hazard paradigm to cope with European urban scale threats, especially in heritage areas, with a case study of a historic zone now designated as protected area. The cultural and utility value was identified and graded on specific scales for further analysis and mapping. For this phase of study some data of 1977 were adjusted to express the vulnerability by the Mean Damage Degree, GA, with a possibility to make corrections after visual inspection. The URBASRISKdb geodatabase was created for storing the attributes of the buildings. The basic source, i.e. the ESRI World Street Map layer, was verified against satellite, aerial and street views freely available online from various providers. The final version of the map was obtained by also considering information obtained by field visits.

  1. SU-G-BRB-16: Vulnerabilities in the Gamma Metric

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neal, B; Siebers, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To explore vulnerabilities in the gamma index metric that undermine its wide use as a radiation therapy quality assurance tool. Methods: 2D test field pairs (images) are created specifically to achieve high gamma passing rates, but to also include gross errors by exploiting the distance-to-agreement and percent-passing components of the metric. The first set has no requirement of clinical practicality, but is intended to expose vulnerabilities. The second set exposes clinically realistic vulnerabilities. To circumvent limitations inherent to user-specific tuning of prediction algorithms to match measurements, digital test cases are manually constructed, thereby mimicking high-quality image prediction. Results: With a 3 mm distance-to-agreement metric, changing field size by ±6 mm results in a gamma passing rate over 99%. For a uniform field, a lattice of passing points spaced 5 mm apart results in a passing rate of 100%. Exploiting the percent-passing component, a 10×10 cm"2 field can have a 95% passing rate when an 8 cm"2=2.8×2.8 cm"2 highly out-of-tolerance (e.g. zero dose) square is missing from the comparison image. For clinically realistic vulnerabilities, an arc plan for which a 2D image is created can have a >95% passing rate solely due to agreement in the lateral spillage, with the failing 5% in the critical target region. A field with an integrated boost (e.g whole brain plus small metastases) could neglect the metastases entirely, yet still pass with a 95% threshold. All the failure modes described would be visually apparent on a gamma-map image. Conclusion: The %gamma<1 metric has significant vulnerabilities. High passing rates can obscure critical faults in hypothetical and delivered radiation doses. Great caution should be used with gamma as a QA metric; users should inspect the gamma-map. Visual analysis of gamma-maps may be impractical for cine acquisition.

  2. SU-G-BRB-16: Vulnerabilities in the Gamma Metric

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neal, B; Siebers, J [University of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To explore vulnerabilities in the gamma index metric that undermine its wide use as a radiation therapy quality assurance tool. Methods: 2D test field pairs (images) are created specifically to achieve high gamma passing rates, but to also include gross errors by exploiting the distance-to-agreement and percent-passing components of the metric. The first set has no requirement of clinical practicality, but is intended to expose vulnerabilities. The second set exposes clinically realistic vulnerabilities. To circumvent limitations inherent to user-specific tuning of prediction algorithms to match measurements, digital test cases are manually constructed, thereby mimicking high-quality image prediction. Results: With a 3 mm distance-to-agreement metric, changing field size by ±6 mm results in a gamma passing rate over 99%. For a uniform field, a lattice of passing points spaced 5 mm apart results in a passing rate of 100%. Exploiting the percent-passing component, a 10×10 cm{sup 2} field can have a 95% passing rate when an 8 cm{sup 2}=2.8×2.8 cm{sup 2} highly out-of-tolerance (e.g. zero dose) square is missing from the comparison image. For clinically realistic vulnerabilities, an arc plan for which a 2D image is created can have a >95% passing rate solely due to agreement in the lateral spillage, with the failing 5% in the critical target region. A field with an integrated boost (e.g whole brain plus small metastases) could neglect the metastases entirely, yet still pass with a 95% threshold. All the failure modes described would be visually apparent on a gamma-map image. Conclusion: The %gamma<1 metric has significant vulnerabilities. High passing rates can obscure critical faults in hypothetical and delivered radiation doses. Great caution should be used with gamma as a QA metric; users should inspect the gamma-map. Visual analysis of gamma-maps may be impractical for cine acquisition.

  3. Dynamics of chaotic maps for modelling the multifractal spectrum of human brain Diffusion Tensor Images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Provata, A.; Katsaloulis, P.; Verganelakis, D.A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Calculation of human brain multifractal spectra. ► Calculations are based on Diffusion Tensor MRI Images. ► Spectra are modelled by coupled Ikeda map dynamics. ► Coupled lattice Ikeda maps model well only positive multifractal spectra. ► Appropriately modified coupled lattice Ikeda maps give correct spectra. - Abstract: The multifractal spectra of 3d Diffusion Tensor Images (DTI) obtained by magnetic resonance imaging of the human brain are studied. They are shown to deviate substantially from artificial brain images with the same white matter intensity. All spectra, obtained from 12 healthy subjects, show common characteristics indicating non-trivial moments of the intensity. To model the spectra the dynamics of the chaotic Ikeda map are used. The DTI multifractal spectra for positive q are best approximated by 3d coupled Ikeda maps in the fully developed chaotic regime. The coupling constants are as small as α = 0.01. These results reflect not only the white tissue non-trivial architectural complexity in the human brain, but also demonstrate the presence and importance of coupling between neuron axons. The architectural complexity is also mirrored by the deviations in the negative q-spectra, where the rare events dominate. To obtain a good agreement in the DTI negative q-spectrum of the brain with the Ikeda dynamics, it is enough to slightly modify the most rare events of the coupled Ikeda distributions. The representation of Diffusion Tensor Images with coupled Ikeda maps is not unique: similar conclusions are drawn when other chaotic maps (Tent, Logistic or Henon maps) are employed in the modelling of the neuron axons network.

  4. Dynamic Programming for Re-Mapping Noisy Fixations in Translation Tasks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    possible fixated symbols, including those on the line above and below the naïve fixation mapping. In a second step a dynamic programming algorithm applies a number of heuristics to find the best path through the lattice, based on the probable distance in characters, in words and in pixels between...

  5. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  6. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.E. Oni

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2 of 65 m in (41 different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement. The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing. The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1–0.19 area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1; this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0–0.1 while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1–0.3 vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area. Keywords: Aquifer vulnerability, Longitudinal conductance, GOD and GLSI

  7. The Habitat Susceptibility of Bali Starling (Leucopsar rothschildi Stresemann> 1912) Based on Forest Fire Vulnerability Mappin in West Bali National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramatana, F.; Prasetyo, L. B.; Rushayati, S. B.

    2017-10-01

    Bali starling is an endemic and endangered species which tend to decrease of its population in the wild. West Bali National Park (WBNP) is the only habitat of bali starling, however it is threatened nowadays by forest fire. Understanding the sensitivity of habitat to forest & land fire is urgently needed. Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used for mapping the vulnerability of forest fire. This study aims to analyze the contributed factor of forest fire, to develop vulnerability level map of forest fire in WBNP, to estimate habitat vulnerability of bali starling. The variable for mapping forest fire in WBNP were road distance, village distance, land cover, NDVI, NDMI, surface temperature, and slope. Forest fire map in WBNP was created by scoring from each variable, and classified into four classes of forest fire vulnerability which are very low (9 821 ha), low (5 015.718 ha), middle (6 778.656 ha), and high (2 126.006 ha). Bali starling existence in the middle and high vulnerability forest fire class in WBNP, consequently the population and habitat of bali starling is a very vulnerable. Management of population and habitat of bali starling in WBNP must be implemented focus on forest fire impact.

  8. Network Unfolding Map by Vertex-Edge Dynamics Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verri, Filipe Alves Neto; Urio, Paulo Roberto; Zhao, Liang

    2018-02-01

    The emergence of collective dynamics in neural networks is a mechanism of the animal and human brain for information processing. In this paper, we develop a computational technique using distributed processing elements in a complex network, which are called particles, to solve semisupervised learning problems. Three actions govern the particles' dynamics: generation, walking, and absorption. Labeled vertices generate new particles that compete against rival particles for edge domination. Active particles randomly walk in the network until they are absorbed by either a rival vertex or an edge currently dominated by rival particles. The result from the model evolution consists of sets of edges arranged by the label dominance. Each set tends to form a connected subnetwork to represent a data class. Although the intrinsic dynamics of the model is a stochastic one, we prove that there exists a deterministic version with largely reduced computational complexity; specifically, with linear growth. Furthermore, the edge domination process corresponds to an unfolding map in such way that edges "stretch" and "shrink" according to the vertex-edge dynamics. Consequently, the unfolding effect summarizes the relevant relationships between vertices and the uncovered data classes. The proposed model captures important details of connectivity patterns over the vertex-edge dynamics evolution, in contrast to the previous approaches, which focused on only vertex or only edge dynamics. Computer simulations reveal that the new model can identify nonlinear features in both real and artificial data, including boundaries between distinct classes and overlapping structures of data.

  9. Vulnerable Genders, Vulnerable Loves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleicher, Marianne

    2015-01-01

    This chapter analyses religious reflections on vulnerable genders and vulnerable loves from the Hebrew Bible to early Rabbinic literature. It is based on theories by inter alia Donna Haraway on complex identities, Turner and Maryanski on love as a prerequisite for survival, Michel Foucault...... on gathering knowledge and its often unpremeditated effect of recognition and inclusion, and Judith Butler on cultural intelligibility and subversion from within. With these theories as a departing point for the analysis, the chapter links the vulnerability of complex identities with the vulnerability...... of cultures which leads to the overall understanding that culture can accommodate complex identities associated with individual and cultural vulnerability as long as the overall survival of the culture is not threatened. This understanding questions the feasibility of the ethical position of thinkers...

  10. Mapping soil organic carbon content and composition across Australia to assess vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscarra Rossel, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    We can effectively monitor soil condition—and develop sound policies to offset the emissions of greenhouse gases—only with accurate data from which to define baselines. Currently, estimates of soil organic C for countries or continents are either unavailable or largely uncertain because they are derived from sparse data, with large gaps over many areas of the Earth. Here, we derive spatially explicit estimates, and their uncertainty, of the distribution and stock of organic C content and composition in the soil of Australia. The composition of soil organic C may be characterized by chemical separation or physical fractionation based on either particle size or particle density (Skjemstad et al., 2004; Gregorich et al., 2006; Kelleher&Simpson, 2006; Zimmermann et al., 2007). In Australia, for example, Skjemstad et al. (2004) used physical separation of soil samples into 50-2000 and solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, giving the three OC pools, particulate organic carbon (POC), humic organic carbon (HOC) and resistant organic carbon (ROC; charcoal or char-carbon). We assembled and harmonized data from several sources to produce the most comprehensive set of data on the current stock of organic C in soil of the continent. Using them, we have produced a fine spatial resolution baseline map of organic C, POC, HOC and ROC at the continental scale. In this presentation I will describe how we made the maps and how we use them to assess the vulnerability of soil organic C to for instance climate change.

  11. Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment to Pesticides and Their Ranking and Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Abrishamchi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the different methods for groundwater vulnerability assessment to pesticides contamination and their uncertainties were introduced. Then, the groundwater vulnerability of agricultural regions of Pasha-Kolaa dam (Mazandaran province to 7 pesticides has been assessed by the mobility potential indices in the typical conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC and the zonation maps of groundwater vulnerability in this region have been generated in the GIS environment.  According to the uncertainty of the pesticide properties and the lack of necessary data for uncertainty analysis in the region of study, the mobility potential indices in different scenarios of pesticide properties (worst and best conditions of pesticide properties (t1/2 and KOC have been calculated, mapped and zoned. The zonation maps in three scenarios (best, typical and worst conditions of pesticide properties were compared. Next, according to the regional values of mobility potential indices, generated for different scenarios, the pesticides are ranked using the composite programming method. Finally, the pesticides are clustered to three groups (suitable, transitional and unsuitable by the combination of the results of previous sections. The clustering results showed that among of studied pesticides, 2,4 D Acid, Dimethoate and Fenvalerate are suitable ,and Metsulfuron and Triclopyr are unsuitable pesticides for region of study. The other pesticides showed transitional condition.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of DRASTIC Model in Vulnerability Assessment of Shahrood Alluvial Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shadi Abolhasan Almasi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater vulnerability assessment is typically accomplished as a management tool to protect groundwater resources. In this research, the DRASTIC model which is an empirical one used for evaluating the potential of an aquifer for pollution was employed to evaluate the vulnerability of Shahrood alluvial aquifer. Moreover, the sensitivity of the model paramneters was assessed to identify the ones with greatest effect on vulnerability. The model layers including depth to groundwater table level, recharge, aquifer media, topography, impact of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity were prepared and classified in the ArcGIS software based on analyses of both the available data and the layer of surface soil texture using Aster satellite images. Once the vulnerability index was calculated, the sensitivity map of Shahroud aquifer vulnerability was analyzed using the two parameter removal and single parameter sensitivity methods. These were further verified by textural analysis of soil samples from different parts of the region. The layers with appropriate weights were overlaid and the DRASTIC index of the aquifer was estimated at 28 to 148. The highest vulnerability was detected in the northern margins and southwestern parts of the aquifer while other parts were characterized by medium to low vulnerability. The low nitrogen concentration observed in the farm areas and its rise to 45 mg/l in the northern stretches of the aquifer bear witness to the accuracy of the zoning rendered by the DRASTIC model. Based on the vulnerability map of Sharoud aquifer, it was found that 1.6% of the aquifer’s area has a very high vulnerability or potential for pollution followed by 10%, 28.8%, and 18.9% of the area were identified as having high, medium and low potentials for pollution, respecytively. The remaining (i.e., 40.5% was found to have no risk of pollution.

  13. Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

    Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

  14. Vulnerability of networks of interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D

    2010-05-13

    The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.

  15. Dynamics of Sheep Production in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Rezende Paiva

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sheep production is present on all continents and has been practiced in Brazil since the colonization. In this study, the multitemporal dynamics of sheep production in Brazil is examined using official government data (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics-IBGE from 1976 to 2010. Maps of flock growth rates and growth acceleration maps by municipality were elaborated. The Southern states are seen to show a reduction in production mainly due to the wool crisis in the 1970s and 80s. The Northeast is seen to be important for meat production. More recently, centerwest and northern states have shown an increase in growth rates but this is still incipient. The maps of growth, acceleration and midpoint for sheep production showed a noticeable return to an increase in production in the South in recent years. The midpoint of production flow was in the northeast direction, which has stagnated. There was great dynamics in sheep production over the whole Brazilian territory, which affected supply chains due to the expansion of domestic and foreign markets. Areas with higher fluctuations in production are more vulnerable in terms of investment policies.

  16. Sleep Stage Transition Dynamics Reveal Specific Stage 2 Vulnerability in Insomnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yishul; Colombo, Michele A; Ramautar, Jennifer R; Blanken, Tessa F; van der Werf, Ysbrand D; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Feige, Bernd; Riemann, Dieter; Van Someren, Eus J W

    2017-09-01

    Objective sleep impairments in insomnia disorder (ID) are insufficiently understood. The present study evaluated whether whole-night sleep stage dynamics derived from polysomnography (PSG) differ between people with ID and matched controls and whether sleep stage dynamic features discriminate them better than conventional sleep parameters. Eighty-eight participants aged 21-70 years, including 46 with ID and 42 age- and sex-matched controls without sleep complaints, were recruited through www.sleepregistry.nl and completed two nights of laboratory PSG. Data of 100 people with ID and 100 age- and sex-matched controls from a previously reported study were used to validate the generalizability of findings. The second night was used to obtain, in addition to conventional sleep parameters, probabilities of transitions between stages and bout duration distributions of each stage. Group differences were evaluated with nonparametric tests. People with ID showed higher empirical probabilities to transition from stage N2 to the lighter sleep stage N1 or wakefulness and a faster decaying stage N2 bout survival function. The increased transition probability from stage N2 to stage N1 discriminated people with ID better than any of their deviations in conventional sleep parameters, including less total sleep time, less sleep efficiency, more stage N1, and more wake after sleep onset. Moreover, adding this transition probability significantly improved the discriminating power of a multiple logistic regression model based on conventional sleep parameters. Quantification of sleep stage dynamics revealed a particular vulnerability of stage N2 in insomnia. The feature characterizes insomnia better than-and independently of-any conventional sleep parameter. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Revealing the cerebral regions and networks mediating vulnerability to depression: oxidative metabolism mapping of rat brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harro, Jaanus; Kanarik, Margus; Kaart, Tanel; Matrov, Denis; Kõiv, Kadri; Mällo, Tanel; Del Río, Joaquin; Tordera, Rosa M; Ramirez, Maria J

    2014-07-01

    The large variety of available animal models has revealed much on the neurobiology of depression, but each model appears as specific to a significant extent, and distinction between stress response, pathogenesis of depression and underlying vulnerability is difficult to make. Evidence from epidemiological studies suggests that depression occurs in biologically predisposed subjects under impact of adverse life events. We applied the diathesis-stress concept to reveal brain regions and functional networks that mediate vulnerability to depression and response to chronic stress by collapsing data on cerebral long term neuronal activity as measured by cytochrome c oxidase histochemistry in distinct animal models. Rats were rendered vulnerable to depression either by partial serotonergic lesion or by maternal deprivation, or selected for a vulnerable phenotype (low positive affect, low novelty-related activity or high hedonic response). Environmental adversity was brought about by applying chronic variable stress or chronic social defeat. Several brain regions, most significantly median raphe, habenula, retrosplenial cortex and reticular thalamus, were universally implicated in long-term metabolic stress response, vulnerability to depression, or both. Vulnerability was associated with higher oxidative metabolism levels as compared to resilience to chronic stress. Chronic stress, in contrast, had three distinct patterns of effect on oxidative metabolism in vulnerable vs. resilient animals. In general, associations between regional activities in several brain circuits were strongest in vulnerable animals, and chronic stress disrupted this interrelatedness. These findings highlight networks that underlie resilience to stress, and the distinct response to stress that occurs in vulnerable subjects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Groundwater vulnerability assessment: from overlay methods to statistical methods in the Lombardy Plain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Stevenazzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is among the most important freshwater resources. Worldwide, aquifers are experiencing an increasing threat of pollution from urbanization, industrial development, agricultural activities and mining enterprise. Thus, practical actions, strategies and solutions to protect groundwater from these anthropogenic sources are widely required. The most efficient tool, which helps supporting land use planning, while protecting groundwater from contamination, is represented by groundwater vulnerability assessment. Over the years, several methods assessing groundwater vulnerability have been developed: overlay and index methods, statistical and process-based methods. All methods are means to synthesize complex hydrogeological information into a unique document, which is a groundwater vulnerability map, useable by planners, decision and policy makers, geoscientists and the public. Although it is not possible to identify an approach which could be the best one for all situations, the final product should always be scientific defensible, meaningful and reliable. Nevertheless, various methods may produce very different results at any given site. Thus, reasons for similarities and differences need to be deeply investigated. This study demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of a spatial statistical method to assess groundwater vulnerability to contamination at a regional scale. The Lombardy Plain case study is particularly interesting for its long history of groundwater monitoring (quality and quantity, availability of hydrogeological data, and combined presence of various anthropogenic sources of contamination. Recent updates of the regional water protection plan have raised the necessity of realizing more flexible, reliable and accurate groundwater vulnerability maps. A comparison of groundwater vulnerability maps obtained through different approaches and developed in a time span of several years has demonstrated the relevance of the

  19. Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schueler, Silvio; Falk, Wolfgang; Koskela, Jarkko; Lefèvre, François; Bozzano, Michele; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C

    2014-05-01

    A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Social Vulnerability and Ebola Virus Disease in Rural Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanturf, John A; Goodrick, Scott L; Warren, Melvin L; Charnley, Susan; Stegall, Christie M

    2015-01-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that has stricken thousands of people in the three West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea highlights the lack of adaptive capacity in post-conflict countries. The scarcity of health services in particular renders these populations vulnerable to multiple interacting stressors including food insecurity, climate change, and the cascading effects of disease epidemics such as EVD. However, the spatial distribution of vulnerable rural populations and the individual stressors contributing to their vulnerability are unknown. We developed a Social Vulnerability Classification using census indicators and mapped it at the district scale for Liberia. According to the Classification, we estimate that districts having the highest social vulnerability lie in the north and west of Liberia in Lofa, Bong, Grand Cape Mount, and Bomi Counties. Three of these counties together with the capital Monrovia and surrounding Montserrado and Margibi counties experienced the highest levels of EVD infections in Liberia. Vulnerability has multiple dimensions and a classification developed from multiple variables provides a more holistic view of vulnerability than single indicators such as food insecurity or scarcity of health care facilities. Few rural Liberians are food secure and many cannot reach a medical clinic in Liberia may be warranted. We demonstrate how social vulnerability index approaches can be applied in the context of disease outbreaks, and our methods are relevant elsewhere.

  1. Application of the Frequency Map Analysis to the Study of the Beam Dynamics of Light Sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadolski, Laurent

    2001-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is the study of beam dynamics in storage rings with a restriction to single particle transverse dynamics. In a first part, tools (Frequency Map Analysis, Hamiltonian, Integrator) are presented for studying and exploring the dynamics. Numerical simulations of four synchrotron radiation sources (the ALS, the ESRF, SOLEIL and Super-ACO) are performed. We construct a tracking code based on a new class of symplectic integrators (Laskar and Robutel, 2000). These integrators with only positive steps are more precise by an order of magnitude than the standard Forest and Ruth's scheme. Comparisons with the BETA, DESPOT and MAD codes are carried out. Frequency Map Analysis (Laskar, 1990) is our main analysis tool. This is a numerical method for analysing a conservative dynamical system. Based on a refined Fourier technique, it enables us to compute frequency maps which are real footprints of the beam dynamics of an accelerator. We stress the high sensitivity of the dynamics to magnetics errors and sextipolar strengths. The second part of this work is dedicated to the analysis of experimental results from two light sources. Together with the ALS accelerator team (Berkeley), we succeeded in obtaining the first experimental frequency map of an accelerator. The agreement with the machine model is very impressive. At the Super-ACO ring, the study of the tune shift with amplitude enabled us to highlight a strong octupolar-like component related to the quadrupole fringe field. The aftermaths for the beam dynamics are important and give us a better understanding the measured ring performance. All these results are based on turn by turn measurements. Many closely related phenomena are treated such as response matrix analysis or beam decoherence. (author) [fr

  2. Dynamic Assessment of EFL Learners' Listening Comprehension via Computerized Concept Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebadi, Saman; Latif, Shokoufeh Vakili

    2015-01-01

    In Vygotsky's theory, learner's Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD) and autonomous performance could be further developed through social interaction with an expert. Computerized concept mapping enjoys the advantage of meeting learners' differences and therefore can be applied as a scaffold to support learning process.Taking a dynamic assessment…

  3. Dynamic neural network modeling of HF radar current maps for forecasting oil spill trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, P.; Perez, J.; Kelly, F.J.; Bonner, J.; Michaud, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper examined the concept of dynamic neural network (NN) modeling for short-term forecasts of coastal high-frequency (HF) radar current maps offshore of Galveston Texas. HF radar technology is emerging as a viable and affordable way to measure surface currents in real time and the number of users applying the technology is increasing. A 25 megahertz, two site, Seasonde HF radar system was used to map ocean and bay surface currents along the coast of Texas where wind and river discharge create complex and rapidly changing current patters that override the weaker tidal flow component. The HF radar system is particularly useful in this type of setting because its mobility makes it a good marine spill response tool that could provide hourly current maps. This capability helps improve deployment of response resources. In addition, the NN model recently developed by the Conrad Blucher Institute can be used to forecast water levels during storm events. Forecasted currents are based on time series of current vectors from HF radar plus wind speed, wind direction, and water levels, as well as tidal forecasts. The dynamic NN model was tested to evaluate its performance and the results were compared with a baseline model which assumes the currents do not change from the time of the forecast up to the forecasted time. The NN model showed improvements over the baseline model for forecasting time equal or greater than 3 hours, but the difference was relatively small. The test demonstrated the ability of the dynamic NN model to link meteorological forcing functions with HF radar current maps. Development of the dynamic NN modeling is still ongoing. 18 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  4. Using Self-Adaptive Evolutionary Algorithms to Evolve Dynamism-Oriented Maps for a Real Time Strategy Game

    OpenAIRE

    Lara-Cabrera, Raúl; Cotta, Carlos; Fernández Leiva, Antonio J.

    2013-01-01

    This work presents a procedural content generation system that uses an evolutionary algorithm in order to generate interesting maps for a real-time strategy game, called Planet Wars. Interestingness is here captured by the dynamism of games (i.e., the extent to which they are action-packed). We consider two different approaches to measure the dynamism of the games resulting from these generated maps, one based on fluctuations in the resources controlled by either player and another one based ...

  5. Coupled iterated map models of action potential dynamics in a one-dimensional cable of cardiac cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Shihong; Xie Yuanfang; Qu Zhilin

    2008-01-01

    Low-dimensional iterated map models have been widely used to study action potential dynamics in isolated cardiac cells. Coupled iterated map models have also been widely used to investigate action potential propagation dynamics in one-dimensional (1D) coupled cardiac cells, however, these models are usually empirical and not carefully validated. In this study, we first developed two coupled iterated map models which are the standard forms of diffusively coupled maps and overcome the limitations of the previous models. We then determined the coupling strength and space constant by quantitatively comparing the 1D action potential duration profile from the coupled cardiac cell model described by differential equations with that of the coupled iterated map models. To further validate the coupled iterated map models, we compared the stability conditions of the spatially uniform state of the coupled iterated maps and those of the 1D ionic model and showed that the coupled iterated map model could well recapitulate the stability conditions, i.e. the spatially uniform state is stable unless the state is chaotic. Finally, we combined conduction into the developed coupled iterated map model to study the effects of coupling strength on wave stabilities and showed that the diffusive coupling between cardiac cells tends to suppress instabilities during reentry in a 1D ring and the onset of discordant alternans in a periodically paced 1D cable

  6. Dynamic Feedforward Control of a Diesel Engine Based on Optimal Transient Compensation Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio Mancini

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the increasingly stringent emission regulations and a demand for an ever lower fuel consumption, diesel engines have become complex systems with many interacting actuators. As a consequence, these requirements are pushing control and calibration to their limits. The calibration procedure nowadays is still based mainly on engineering experience, which results in a highly iterative process to derive a complete engine calibration. Moreover, automatic tools are available only for stationary operation, to obtain control maps that are optimal with respect to some predefined objective function. Therefore, the exploitation of any leftover potential during transient operation is crucial. This paper proposes an approach to derive a transient feedforward (FF control system in an automated way. It relies on optimal control theory to solve a dynamic optimization problem for fast transients. A partially physics-based model is thereby used to replace the engine. From the optimal solutions, the relevant information is extracted and stored in maps spanned by the engine speed and the torque gradient. These maps complement the static control maps by accounting for the dynamic behavior of the engine. The procedure is implemented on a real engine and experimental results are presented along with the development of the methodology.

  7. The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

    2012-04-01

    The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  8. RISKS, THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMPLEX DYNAMIC OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca-Irina IONIȚĂ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The regional conflict that takes place now in the middle east from Afghanistan, Iraq to Syria has proven to be incrementally complex and difficult to manage from a geo-political point of view. It is becoming harder to know who are the violent non-state actors and who is backing them, turning what was at first a civil war into a proxy war between the western countries on one side and Russia, pro al-assad forces and Iran. Also, Turkey who at once was considered to be an important ally to the US has now grown closer to Russian interests, bombing kurdish troops backed by the US. In this regard it is becoming obvious that there are a number of threats, risks, and vulnerabilities that arise in an unpredictable manner. In conclusion, this paper analyzes the main solutions that can be adopted in order to control and manage the complex dynamic that are unfolding in Syria.

  9. Mapping cold-water coral habitats at different scales within the Northern Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean: an assessment of coral coverage and associated vulnerability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Savini

    Full Text Available In this study, we mapped the distribution of Cold-Water Coral (CWC habitats on the northern Ionian Margin (Mediterranean Sea, with an emphasis on assessing coral coverage at various spatial scales over an area of 2,000 km(2 between 120 and 1,400 m of water depth. Our work made use of a set of data obtained from ship-based research surveys. Multi-scale seafloor mapping data, video inspections, and previous results from sediment samples were integrated and analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS-based tools. Results obtained from the application of spatial and textural analytical techniques to acoustic meso-scale maps (i.e. a Digital Terrain Model (DTM of the seafloor at a 40 m grid cell size and associated terrain parameters and large-scale maps (i.e. Side-Scan Sonar (SSS mosaics of 1 m in resolution ground-truthed using underwater video observations were integrated and revealed that, at the meso-scale level, the main morphological pattern (i.e. the aggregation of mound-like features associated with CWC habitat occurrences was widespread over a total area of 600 km(2. Single coral mounds were isolated from the DTM and represented the geomorphic proxies used to model coral distributions within the investigated area. Coral mounds spanned a total area of 68 km(2 where different coral facies (characterized using video analyses and mapped on SSS mosaics represent the dominant macro-habitat. We also mapped and classified anthropogenic threats that were identifiable within the examined videos, and, here, discuss their relationship to the mapped distribution of coral habitats and mounds. The combined results (from multi-scale habitat mapping and observations of the distribution of anthropogenic threats provide the first quantitative assessment of CWC coverage for a Mediterranean province and document the relevant role of seafloor geomorphology in influencing habitat vulnerability to different types of human pressures.

  10. Mapping cold-water coral habitats at different scales within the Northern Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean): an assessment of coral coverage and associated vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savini, Alessandra; Vertino, Agostina; Marchese, Fabio; Beuck, Lydia; Freiwald, André

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we mapped the distribution of Cold-Water Coral (CWC) habitats on the northern Ionian Margin (Mediterranean Sea), with an emphasis on assessing coral coverage at various spatial scales over an area of 2,000 km(2) between 120 and 1,400 m of water depth. Our work made use of a set of data obtained from ship-based research surveys. Multi-scale seafloor mapping data, video inspections, and previous results from sediment samples were integrated and analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based tools. Results obtained from the application of spatial and textural analytical techniques to acoustic meso-scale maps (i.e. a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the seafloor at a 40 m grid cell size and associated terrain parameters) and large-scale maps (i.e. Side-Scan Sonar (SSS) mosaics of 1 m in resolution ground-truthed using underwater video observations) were integrated and revealed that, at the meso-scale level, the main morphological pattern (i.e. the aggregation of mound-like features) associated with CWC habitat occurrences was widespread over a total area of 600 km(2). Single coral mounds were isolated from the DTM and represented the geomorphic proxies used to model coral distributions within the investigated area. Coral mounds spanned a total area of 68 km(2) where different coral facies (characterized using video analyses and mapped on SSS mosaics) represent the dominant macro-habitat. We also mapped and classified anthropogenic threats that were identifiable within the examined videos, and, here, discuss their relationship to the mapped distribution of coral habitats and mounds. The combined results (from multi-scale habitat mapping and observations of the distribution of anthropogenic threats) provide the first quantitative assessment of CWC coverage for a Mediterranean province and document the relevant role of seafloor geomorphology in influencing habitat vulnerability to different types of human pressures.

  11. Laser-Based Slam with Efficient Occupancy Likelihood Map Learning for Dynamic Indoor Scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Yao, Jian; Xie, Renping; Tu, Jinge; Feng, Chen

    2016-06-01

    Location-Based Services (LBS) have attracted growing attention in recent years, especially in indoor environments. The fundamental technique of LBS is the map building for unknown environments, this technique also named as simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) in robotic society. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for SLAMin dynamic indoor scenes based on a 2D laser scanner mounted on a mobile Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) with the help of the grid-based occupancy likelihood map. Instead of applying scan matching in two adjacent scans, we propose to match current scan with the occupancy likelihood map learned from all previous scans in multiple scales to avoid the accumulation of matching errors. Due to that the acquisition of the points in a scan is sequential but not simultaneous, there unavoidably exists the scan distortion at different extents. To compensate the scan distortion caused by the motion of the UGV, we propose to integrate a velocity of a laser range finder (LRF) into the scan matching optimization framework. Besides, to reduce the effect of dynamic objects such as walking pedestrians often existed in indoor scenes as much as possible, we propose a new occupancy likelihood map learning strategy by increasing or decreasing the probability of each occupancy grid after each scan matching. Experimental results in several challenged indoor scenes demonstrate that our proposed approach is capable of providing high-precision SLAM results.

  12. DYNAMIC SPECTRAL MAPPING OF INTERSTELLAR PLASMA LENSES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuntsov, Artem V.; Walker, Mark A. [Manly Astrophysics, 3/22 Cliff Street, Manly 2095 (Australia); Koopmans, Leon V. E. [Kapteyn Astronomical Institute, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands); Bannister, Keith W.; Stevens, Jamie; Johnston, Simon [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping NSW 1710 (Australia); Reynolds, Cormac; Bignall, Hayley E., E-mail: Artem.Tuntsov@manlyastrophysics.org, E-mail: Mark.Walker@manlyastrophysics.org, E-mail: koopmans@astro.rug.nl [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research—Curtin University, Perth (Australia)

    2016-02-01

    Compact radio sources sometimes exhibit intervals of large, rapid changes in their flux density, due to lensing by interstellar plasma crossing the line of sight. A novel survey program has made it possible to discover these “Extreme Scattering Events” (ESEs) in real time, resulting in a high-quality dynamic spectrum of an ESE observed in PKS 1939–315. Here we present a method for determining the column-density profile of a plasma lens, given only the dynamic radio spectrum of the lensed source, under the assumption that the lens is either axisymmetric or totally anisotropic. Our technique relies on the known, strong frequency dependence of the plasma refractive index in order to determine how points in the dynamic spectrum map to positions on the lens. We apply our method to high-frequency (4.2–10.8 GHz) data from the Australia Telescope Compact Array of the PKS 1939–315 ESE. The derived electron column-density profiles are very similar for the two geometries we consider, and both yield a good visual match to the data. However, the fit residuals are substantially above the noise level, and deficiencies are evident when we compare the predictions of our model to lower-frequency (1.6–3.1 GHz) data on the same ESE, thus motivating future development of more sophisticated inversion techniques.

  13. Dynamics of Stability of Orientation Maps Recorded with Optical Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shumikhina, S I; Bondar, I V; Svinov, M M

    2018-03-15

    Orientation selectivity is an important feature of visual cortical neurons. Optical imaging of the visual cortex allows for the generation of maps of orientation selectivity that reflect the activity of large populations of neurons. To estimate the statistical significance of effects of experimental manipulations, evaluation of the stability of cortical maps over time is required. Here, we performed optical imaging recordings of the visual cortex of anesthetized adult cats. Monocular stimulation with moving clockwise square-wave gratings that continuously changed orientation and direction was used as the mapping stimulus. Recordings were repeated at various time intervals, from 15 min to 16 h. Quantification of map stability was performed on a pixel-by-pixel basis using several techniques. Map reproducibility showed clear dynamics over time. The highest degree of stability was seen in maps recorded 15-45 min apart. Averaging across all time intervals and all stimulus orientations revealed a mean shift of 2.2 ± 0.1°. There was a significant tendency for larger shifts to occur at longer time intervals. Shifts between 2.8° (mean ± 2SD) and 5° were observed more frequently at oblique orientations, while shifts greater than 5° appeared more frequently at cardinal orientations. Shifts greater than 5° occurred rarely overall (5.4% of cases) and never exceeded 11°. Shifts of 10-10.6° (0.7%) were seen occasionally at time intervals of more than 4 h. Our findings should be considered when evaluating the potential effect of experimental manipulations on orientation selectivity mapping studies. Copyright © 2018 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

  15. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

    2018-05-01

    This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  16. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using DRASTIC Model and GIS : A case study of two sub-districts in Banda Aceh city, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machdar, I.; Zulfikar, T.; Rinaldi, W.; Alfiansyah, Y.

    2018-03-01

    This present study assessed the groundwater vulnerability to protect aquifer in part of Banda Aceh City (the sub-district of Banda Raya and Lueng Bata), Indonesia. The study provides an additional tool for local planner and manager as for managing and protecting groundwater resources. The study area covers 1,164 ha and total population was estimated around 50,000 inhabitants. DRASTIC model in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment was used in this study to generate vulnerability maps. The maps were created by applied seven criteria as standard in DRASTIC approach, i.e. depth to groundwater, recharge, aquifer type, soil properties, topography, impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity. The vulnerability maps provides five categories of vulnerability, i.e. less, low, medium, high, and very high. It was found that the village areas, labelled with the high groundwater pollution potential, are mainly in the area of Lamlagang and the part of Geuce Kaye Jatoe and Geuce Komplek (Banda Raya sub-district) and the part of Batoh and Suka Damai (Lueng Bata sub-distric) This study prompts that the DRASTIC approach is helpful and efficient instrument for assessing groundwater vulnerability. The generated map can be an effective tool for local administrators in groundwater management as well.

  17. The Svalbard intertidal zone: a concept for the use of GIS in applied oil sensitivity, vulnerability and impact analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moe, K.A.; Skeie, G.M.; Brude, O.W.; Loevas, S.M.; Nedreboes, M.; Weslawski, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Historical oil spills have shown that environmental damage on the seashore can be measured by acute mortality of single species and destabilisation of the communities. The biota, however, has the potential to recover over some period of time. Applied to the understanding of the fate of oil and population and community dynamics, the impact can be described by the function of the following two factors: the immediate extent and the duration of damage. A simple and robust mathematical model is developed to describe this process in the Svalbard intertidal. Based on the integral of key biological and physical factors, i.e., community specific sensitivity, oil accumulation and retention capacity of the substrate, ice-cover and wave exposure, the model is implemented by a Geographical Information System (GIS) for characterisation of the habitat's sensitivity and vulnerability. Geomorphologic maps and georeferenced biological data are used as input. Digital maps of intertidal zone are compiled, indicating the shoreline sensitivity and vulnerability in terms of coastal segments and grid aggregations. Selected results have been used in the national assessment programme of oil development in the Barents Sea for priorities in environmental impact assessments and risk analyses as well as oil spill contingency planning. (Author)

  18. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Expanding Thurston maps

    CERN Document Server

    Bonk, Mario

    2017-01-01

    This monograph is devoted to the study of the dynamics of expanding Thurston maps under iteration. A Thurston map is a branched covering map on a two-dimensional topological sphere such that each critical point of the map has a finite orbit under iteration. It is called expanding if, roughly speaking, preimages of a fine open cover of the underlying sphere under iterates of the map become finer and finer as the order of the iterate increases. Every expanding Thurston map gives rise to a fractal space, called its visual sphere. Many dynamical properties of the map are encoded in the geometry of this visual sphere. For example, an expanding Thurston map is topologically conjugate to a rational map if and only if its visual sphere is quasisymmetrically equivalent to the Riemann sphere. This relation between dynamics and fractal geometry is the main focus for the investigations in this work.

  20. Molecular dynamics-based refinement and validation for sub-5 Å cryo-electron microscopy maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singharoy, Abhishek; Teo, Ivan; McGreevy, Ryan; Stone, John E; Zhao, Jianhua; Schulten, Klaus

    2016-07-07

    Two structure determination methods, based on the molecular dynamics flexible fitting (MDFF) paradigm, are presented that resolve sub-5 Å cryo-electron microscopy (EM) maps with either single structures or ensembles of such structures. The methods, denoted cascade MDFF and resolution exchange MDFF, sequentially re-refine a search model against a series of maps of progressively higher resolutions, which ends with the original experimental resolution. Application of sequential re-refinement enables MDFF to achieve a radius of convergence of ~25 Å demonstrated with the accurate modeling of β-galactosidase and TRPV1 proteins at 3.2 Å and 3.4 Å resolution, respectively. The MDFF refinements uniquely offer map-model validation and B-factor determination criteria based on the inherent dynamics of the macromolecules studied, captured by means of local root mean square fluctuations. The MDFF tools described are available to researchers through an easy-to-use and cost-effective cloud computing resource on Amazon Web Services.

  1. A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Li-Sha; Kang Xiao-Yun; Zhang Qiong; Lin Lan-Xin

    2011-01-01

    Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems. (general)

  2. A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li-Sha; Kang, Xiao-Yun; Zhang, Qiong; Lin, Lan-Xin

    2011-12-01

    Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems.

  3. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  4. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  5. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayl, Nathaniel; Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Organ, John F.; Mumma, Matthew; Mahoney, Shane P.; Soulliere, Colleen; Lewis, Keith; Otto, Robert; Murray, Dennis; Waits, Lisette; Fuller, Todd

    2018-01-01

    Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator–prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear (Ursus americanus) predation of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves).During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined.As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per‐capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type‐I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves.Our results reveal that

  6. Social Vulnerability and Ebola Virus Disease in Rural Liberia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Stanturf

    Full Text Available The Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic that has stricken thousands of people in the three West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea highlights the lack of adaptive capacity in post-conflict countries. The scarcity of health services in particular renders these populations vulnerable to multiple interacting stressors including food insecurity, climate change, and the cascading effects of disease epidemics such as EVD. However, the spatial distribution of vulnerable rural populations and the individual stressors contributing to their vulnerability are unknown. We developed a Social Vulnerability Classification using census indicators and mapped it at the district scale for Liberia. According to the Classification, we estimate that districts having the highest social vulnerability lie in the north and west of Liberia in Lofa, Bong, Grand Cape Mount, and Bomi Counties. Three of these counties together with the capital Monrovia and surrounding Montserrado and Margibi counties experienced the highest levels of EVD infections in Liberia. Vulnerability has multiple dimensions and a classification developed from multiple variables provides a more holistic view of vulnerability than single indicators such as food insecurity or scarcity of health care facilities. Few rural Liberians are food secure and many cannot reach a medical clinic in <80 minutes. Our results illustrate how census and household survey data, when displayed spatially at a sub-county level, may help highlight the location of the most vulnerable households and populations. Our results can be used to identify vulnerability hotspots where development strategies and allocation of resources to address the underlying causes of vulnerability in Liberia may be warranted. We demonstrate how social vulnerability index approaches can be applied in the context of disease outbreaks, and our methods are relevant elsewhere.

  7. Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution using Optimized DRASTIC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mogaji, Kehinde Anthony; Lim, Hwee San; Abdullar, Khiruddin

    2014-01-01

    The prediction accuracy of the conventional DRASTIC model (CDM) algorithm for groundwater vulnerability assessment is severely limited by the inherent subjectivity and uncertainty in the integration of data obtained from various sources. This study attempts to overcome these problems by exploring the potential of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique as a decision support model to optimize the CDM algorithm. The AHP technique was utilized to compute the normalized weights for the seven parameters of the CDM to generate an optimized DRASTIC model (ODM) algorithm. The DRASTIC parameters integrated with the ODM algorithm predicted which among the study areas is more likely to become contaminated as a result of activities at or near the land surface potential. Five vulnerability zones, namely: no vulnerable(NV), very low vulnerable (VLV), low vulnerable (LV), moderate vulnerable (MV) and high vulnerable (HV) were identified based on the vulnerability index values estimated with the ODM algorithm. Results show that more than 50% of the area belongs to both moderate and high vulnerable zones on the account of the spatial analysis of the produced ODM-based groundwater vulnerability prediction map (GVPM).The prediction accuracy of the ODM-based – GVPM with the groundwater pH and manganese (Mn) concentrations established correlation factors (CRs) result of 90 % and 86 % compared to the CRs result of 62 % and 50 % obtained for the validation accuracy of the CDM – based GVPM. The comparative results, indicated that the ODM-based produced GVPM is more reliable than the CDM – based produced GVPM in the study area. The study established the efficacy of AHP as a spatial decision support technique in enhancing environmental decision making with particular reference to future groundwater vulnerability assessment

  8. The Ties That Bind: Mapping the Dynamic Enhancer-Promoter Interactome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrell, Cailyn H; Dickel, Diane E; Visel, Axel

    2016-11-17

    Coupling chromosome conformation capture to molecular enrichment for promoter-containing DNA fragments enables the systematic mapping of interactions between individual distal regulatory sequences and their target genes. In this Minireview, we describe recent progress in the application of this technique and related complementary approaches to gain insight into the lineage- and cell-type-specific dynamics of interactions between regulators and gene promoters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DYNAMIC STRAIN MAPPING AND REAL-TIME DAMAGE STATE ESTIMATION UNDER BIAXIAL RANDOM FATIGUE LOADING SUBHASISH MOHANTY*, ADITI CHATTOPADHYAY, JOHN N. RAJADAS, AND CLYDE...

  10. Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

    2013-01-01

    This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

  11. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  12. Mapping specific soil functions based on digital soil property maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pásztor, László; Fodor, Nándor; Farkas-Iványi, Kinga; Szabó, József; Bakacsi, Zsófia; Koós, Sándor

    2016-04-01

    Quantification of soil functions and services is a great challenge in itself even if the spatial relevance is supposed to be identified and regionalized. Proxies and indicators are widely used in ecosystem service mapping. Soil services could also be approximated by elementary soil features. One solution is the association of soil types with services as basic principle. Soil property maps however provide quantified spatial information, which could be utilized more versatilely for the spatial inference of soil functions and services. In the frame of the activities referred as "Digital, Optimized, Soil Related Maps and Information in Hungary" (DOSoReMI.hu) numerous soil property maps have been compiled so far with proper DSM techniques partly according to GSM.net specifications, partly by slightly or more strictly changing some of its predefined parameters (depth intervals, pixel size, property etc.). The elaborated maps have been further utilized, since even DOSoReMI.hu was intended to take steps toward the regionalization of higher level soil information (secondary properties, functions, services). In the meantime the recently started AGRAGIS project requested spatial soil related information in order to estimate agri-environmental related impacts of climate change and support the associated vulnerability assessment. One of the most vulnerable services of soils in the context of climate change is their provisioning service. In our work it was approximated by productivity, which was estimated by a sequential scenario based crop modelling. It took into consideration long term (50 years) time series of both measured and predicted climatic parameters as well as accounted for the potential differences in agricultural practice and crop production. The flexible parametrization and multiple results of modelling was then applied for the spatial assessment of sensitivity, vulnerability, exposure and adaptive capacity of soils in the context of the forecasted changes in

  13. Entrepreneurial dynamics and social responsibility: mapping an expanded intellectual territory

    OpenAIRE

    Blundel, Richard; Spence, Laura J.

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: (1) To provide a constructive critique of the interface between the entrepreneurial growth dynamics research and social responsibility literatures; (2) to explore opportunities for making new connections between these literatures in order to address substantive ‘gaps’ in research and policy-making ; (3) to map the broader intellectual territory implied by this critique; (4) to outline a tentative research agenda. \\ud Prior work: The paper draws on two main strands of research: ent...

  14. Dynamic Analytics-Driven Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Exploitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-15

    scans and other observations such as network traffic capture, to assess the severity of a vulnerability in terms of its specific impact to a 3...straightforward proposition. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of security tools and information technology systems that generate data useful for...during the data modeling process, a common taxonomy or data dictionary for the data elements of interest should be established. The data

  15. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  16. Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima

    2016-01-01

    Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.

  17. Python passive network mapping P2NMAP

    CERN Document Server

    Hosmer, Chet

    2015-01-01

    Python Passive Network Mapping: P2NMAP is the first book to reveal a revolutionary and open source method for exposing nefarious network activity. The ""Heartbleed"" vulnerability has revealed significant weaknesses within enterprise environments related to the lack of a definitive mapping of network assets. In Python Passive Network Mapping, Chet Hosmer shows you how to effectively and definitively passively map networks. Active or probing methods to network mapping have traditionally been used, but they have many drawbacks - they can disrupt operations, crash systems, and - most important

  18. Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Sadia Mariam; Awan, Haroon; Khan, Niazullah

    2012-09-03

    Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and

  19. Non-Markovianity Measure Based on Brukner–Zeilinger Invariant Information for Unital Quantum Dynamical Maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Zhi; Zhu Lie-Qiang; Li Li

    2017-01-01

    A non-Markovianity measure based on Brukner–Zeilinger invariant information to characterize non-Markovian effect of open systems undergoing unital dynamical maps is proposed. The method takes advantage of non-increasing property of the Brukner–Zeilinger invariant information under completely positive and trace-preserving unital maps. The simplicity of computing the Brukner–Zeilinger invariant information is the advantage of the proposed measure because of mainly depending on the purity of quantum state. The measure effectively captures the characteristics of non-Markovianity of unital dynamical maps. As some concrete application, we consider two typical non-Markovian noise channels, i.e., the phase damping channel and the random unitary channel to show the sensitivity of the proposed measure. By investigation, we find that the conditions of detecting the non-Markovianity for the phase damping channel are consistent with the results of existing measures for non-Markovianity, i.e., information flow, divisibility and quantum mutual information. However, for the random unitary channel non-Markovian conditions are same to that of the information flow, but is different from that of the divisibility and quantum mutual information. (paper)

  20. Evolution of Sex Differences in Trait- and Age-Specific Vulnerabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geary, David C

    2016-11-01

    Traits that facilitate competition for reproductive resources or that influence mate choice generally have a heightened sensitivity to stressors. They have evolved to signal resilience to infectious disease and nutritional and social stressors, and they are compromised by exposure to man-made toxins. Although these traits can differ from one species or sex to the next, an understanding of the dynamics of competition and choice can in theory be used to generate a priori predictions about sex-, age-, and trait-specific vulnerabilities for any sexually reproducing species. I provide a review of these dynamics and illustrate associated vulnerabilities in nonhuman species. The age- and sex-specific vulnerability of such traits is then illustrated for stressor-related disruptions of boys' and girls' physical growth and play behavior, as well as for aspects of boys' and girls' and men's and women's personality, language, and spatial abilities. There is much that remains to be determined, but enough is now known to reframe trait sensitivity in ways that will allow scientists and practitioners to better identify and understand vulnerable human traits, and eventually ameliorate or prevent their expression. © The Author(s) 2016.

  1. Mapping Carrier Dynamics on Material Surfaces in Space and Time using Scanning Ultrafast Electron Microscopy

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Jingya; Adhikari, Aniruddha; Shaheen, Basamat; Yang, Haoze; Mohammed, Omar F.

    2016-01-01

    Selectively capturing the ultrafast dynamics of charge carriers on materials surfaces and at interfaces is crucial to the design of solar cells and optoelectronic devices. Despite extensive research efforts over the past few decades, information and understanding about surface-dynamical processes, including carrier trapping and recombination remains extremely limited. A key challenge is to selectively map such dynamic processes, a capability that is hitherto impractical by time-resolved laser techniques, which are limited by the laser’s relatively large penetration depth and consequently they record mainly bulk information. Such surface dynamics can only be mapped in real space and time by applying four-dimensional (4D) scanning ultrafast electron microscopy (S-UEM), which records snapshots of materials surfaces with nanometer spatial and sub-picosecond temporal resolutions. In this method, the secondary electron (SE) signal emitted from the sample’s surface is extremely sensitive to the surface dynamics and is detected in real time. In several unique applications, we spatially and temporally visualize the SE energy gain and loss, the charge carrier dynamics on the surface of InGaN nanowires and CdSe single crystals and its powder film. We also provide the mechanisms for the observed dynamics, which will be the foundation for future potential applications of S-UEM to a wide range of studies on material surfaces and device interfaces.

  2. Mapping Carrier Dynamics on Material Surfaces in Space and Time using Scanning Ultrafast Electron Microscopy

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Jingya

    2016-02-25

    Selectively capturing the ultrafast dynamics of charge carriers on materials surfaces and at interfaces is crucial to the design of solar cells and optoelectronic devices. Despite extensive research efforts over the past few decades, information and understanding about surface-dynamical processes, including carrier trapping and recombination remains extremely limited. A key challenge is to selectively map such dynamic processes, a capability that is hitherto impractical by time-resolved laser techniques, which are limited by the laser’s relatively large penetration depth and consequently they record mainly bulk information. Such surface dynamics can only be mapped in real space and time by applying four-dimensional (4D) scanning ultrafast electron microscopy (S-UEM), which records snapshots of materials surfaces with nanometer spatial and sub-picosecond temporal resolutions. In this method, the secondary electron (SE) signal emitted from the sample’s surface is extremely sensitive to the surface dynamics and is detected in real time. In several unique applications, we spatially and temporally visualize the SE energy gain and loss, the charge carrier dynamics on the surface of InGaN nanowires and CdSe single crystals and its powder film. We also provide the mechanisms for the observed dynamics, which will be the foundation for future potential applications of S-UEM to a wide range of studies on material surfaces and device interfaces.

  3. Dynamic Corneal Surface Mapping with Electronic Speckle Pattern Interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, S.; Gualini, M. M. S.

    2013-06-01

    In view of the fast advancement in ophthalmic technology and corneal surgery, there is a strong need for the comprehensive mapping and characterization techniques for corneal surface. Optical methods with precision non-contact approaches have been found to be very useful for such bio measurements. Along with the normal mapping approaches, elasticity of corneal surface has an important role in its characterization and needs to be appropriately measured or estimated for broader diagnostics and better prospective surgical results, as it has important role in the post-op corneal surface reconstruction process. Use of normal corneal topographic devices is insufficient for any intricate analysis since these devices operate at relatively moderate resolution. In the given experiment, Pulsed Electronic Speckle Pattern Interferometry has been utilized along with an excitation mechanism to measure the dynamic response of the sample cornea. A Pulsed ESPI device has been chosen for the study because of its micron-level resolution and other advantages in real-time deformation analysis. A bovine cornea has been used as a sample in the subject experiment. The dynamic response has been taken on a chart recorder and it is observed that it does show a marked deformation at a specific excitation frequency, which may be taken as a characteristic elasticity parameter for the surface of that corneal sample. It was seen that outside resonance conditions the bovine cornea was not that much deformed. Through this study, the resonance frequency and the corresponding corneal deformations are mapped and plotted in real time. In these experiments, data was acquired and processed by FRAMES plus computer analysis system. With some analysis of the results, this technique can help us to refine a more detailed corneal surface mathematical model and some preliminary work was done on this. Such modelling enhancements may be useful for finer ablative surgery planning. After further experimentation

  4. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in prey abundance and vulnerability shapes the foraging tactics of an omnivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayl, Nathaniel D; Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Organ, John F; Mumma, Matthew A; Mahoney, Shane P; Soulliere, Colleen E; Lewis, Keith P; Otto, Robert D; Murray, Dennis L; Waits, Lisette P; Fuller, Todd K

    2018-05-01

    Prey abundance and prey vulnerability vary across space and time, but we know little about how they mediate predator-prey interactions and predator foraging tactics. To evaluate the interplay between prey abundance, prey vulnerability and predator space use, we examined patterns of black bear (Ursus americanus) predation of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) neonates in Newfoundland, Canada using data from 317 collared individuals (9 bears, 34 adult female caribou, 274 caribou calves). During the caribou calving season, we predicted that landscape features would influence calf vulnerability to bear predation, and that bears would actively hunt calves by selecting areas associated with increased calf vulnerability. Further, we hypothesized that bears would dynamically adjust their foraging tactics in response to spatiotemporal changes in calf abundance and vulnerability (collectively, calf availability). Accordingly, we expected bears to actively hunt calves when they were most abundant and vulnerable, but switch to foraging on other resources as calf availability declined. As predicted, landscape heterogeneity influenced risk of mortality, and bears displayed the strongest selection for areas where they were most likely to kill calves, which suggested they were actively hunting caribou. Initially, the per-capita rate at which bears killed calves followed a type-I functional response, but as the calving season progressed and calf vulnerability declined, kill rates dissociated from calf abundance. In support of our hypothesis, bears adjusted their foraging tactics when they were less efficient at catching calves, highlighting the influence that predation phenology may have on predator space use. Contrary to our expectations, however, bears appeared to continue to hunt caribou as calf availability declined, but switched from a tactic of selecting areas of increased calf vulnerability to a tactic that maximized encounter rates with calves. Our results reveal that generalist

  5. Analysis of tsunami disaster map by Geographic Information System (GIS): Aceh Singkil-Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhan, A.; Akhyar, H.

    2017-02-01

    Tsunami risk map is used by stakeholder as a base to decide evacuation plan and evaluates from disaster. Aceh Singkil district of Aceh- Indonesia’s disaster maps have been developed and analyzed by using GIS tool. Overlay methods through algorithms are used to produce hazard map, vulnerability, capacity and finally created disaster risk map. Spatial maps are used topographic maps, administrative map, SRTM. The parameters are social, economic, physical environmental vulnerability, a level of exposed people, parameters of houses, public building, critical facilities, productive land, population density, sex ratio, poor ratio, disability ratio, age group ratio, the protected forest, natural forest, and mangrove forest. The results show high-risk tsunami disaster at nine villages; moderate levels are seventeen villages, and other villages are shown in the low level of tsunami risk disaster.

  6. Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adisak Bhumiratana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world’s most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders.

  7. Mapping Of Leptospirosis Environmental Risk Factors and Determining the Level of Leptospirosis Vulnerable Zone In Demak District Using Remote Sensing Image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahayu, Siti; Sakundarno Adi, Mateus; Saraswati, Lintang Dian

    2018-02-01

    Leptospirosis, a zoonotic disease, transmitted to human trough contact with contaminated animal urine and contaminated environment. Demak District is an endemic area where cases increased in the past 2 years. The aim of the study was to map environmental risk factor of Leptospirosis and to determine Leptospirosis vulnerable zone using cross-sectional study design. There were 42 cases mapped by GPS and overlaid using remote sensing (Quickbird image) by using ArcView program then interpreted by Spatial Feature and Spatial Analyses. Leptospirosis cases were spread out and grouped in Demak Sub District area. More cases were males (61.9%), 21-50 years old age group (59.3%) and farmers (40.4%). Spatial analyses showed that all the leptospirosis cases took place in the area with low plain profile (28.6%), tidal inundation's profile (7.1%), vegetation (59.5%). Leptospirosis high-risk zone was in 37,801.8 ha (41.32%), moderate risk zone was 43,570.23 ha (48.55%), and low-risk zone was 9,090.96 ha (10.13%). Densely populated housing, bad environment condition, and the presence of rat and puddles that were contaminated by rat's urine were risk factors of Leptospirosis cases in Demak District.

  8. A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan

    2017-11-01

    analyze the biophysical vulnerability of Taiwan, hazards on eight maps from Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) are analyzed. Statistical data from the NCDR on social vulnerability are also adopted. Finally, a GIS overlaying method was used to perform the synthesized vulnerability analysis of biophysical and social vulnerability for municipalities and counties in Taiwan.

  9. Magnetic resonance velocity mapping of 3D cerebrospinal fluid flow dynamics in hydrocephalus: preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stadlbauer, Andreas; Salomonowitz, Erich; Brenneis, Christian; Ungersboeck, Karl; Riet, Wilma van der; Buchfelder, Michael; Ganslandt, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the detectability of CSF flow alterations in the ventricular system of patients with hydrocephalus using time-resolved 3D MR velocity mapping. MR velocity mapping was performed in 21 consecutive hydrocephalus patients and 21 age-matched volunteers using a 3D phase-contrast (PC) sequence. Velocity vectors and particle path lines were calculated for visualisation of flow dynamics. CSF flow was classified as ''hypomotile flow'' if it showed attenuated dynamics and as ''hypermotile flow'' if it showed increased dynamics compared with volunteers. Diagnostic efficacy was compared with routine 2D cine PC-MRI. Seven patients showed hypomotile CSF flow: six had non-communicating hydrocephalus due to aqueductal stenosis. One showed oscillating flow between the lateral ventricles after craniotomy for intracranial haemorrhage. Seven patients showed normal flow: six had hydrocephalus ex vacuo due to brain atrophy. One patient who underwent ventriculostomy 10 years ago showed a flow path through the opening. Seven patients showed hypermotile flow: three had normal pressure hydrocephalus, three had dementia, and in one the diagnosis remained unclear. The diagnostic efficacy of velocity mapping was significantly higher except for that of aqueductal stenosis. Our approach may be useful for diagnosis, therapy planning, and follow-up of different kinds of hydrocephalus. (orig.)

  10. Magnetic resonance velocity mapping of 3D cerebrospinal fluid flow dynamics in hydrocephalus: preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stadlbauer, Andreas [Landesklinikum St. Poelten, MR Physics Group, Department of Radiology, St. Poelten (Austria); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Neurosurgery, Erlangen (Germany); Salomonowitz, Erich [Landesklinikum St. Poelten, MR Physics Group, Department of Radiology, St. Poelten (Austria); Brenneis, Christian [Landesklinikum St. Poelten, Department of Neurology, St. Poelten (Austria); Ungersboeck, Karl [Landesklinikum St. Poelten, Department of Neurosurgery, St. Poelten (Austria); Riet, Wilma van der [European MRI Consultancy (EMRIC), Strasbourg (France); Buchfelder, Michael; Ganslandt, Oliver [University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Neurosurgery, Erlangen (Germany)

    2012-01-15

    To investigate the detectability of CSF flow alterations in the ventricular system of patients with hydrocephalus using time-resolved 3D MR velocity mapping. MR velocity mapping was performed in 21 consecutive hydrocephalus patients and 21 age-matched volunteers using a 3D phase-contrast (PC) sequence. Velocity vectors and particle path lines were calculated for visualisation of flow dynamics. CSF flow was classified as ''hypomotile flow'' if it showed attenuated dynamics and as ''hypermotile flow'' if it showed increased dynamics compared with volunteers. Diagnostic efficacy was compared with routine 2D cine PC-MRI. Seven patients showed hypomotile CSF flow: six had non-communicating hydrocephalus due to aqueductal stenosis. One showed oscillating flow between the lateral ventricles after craniotomy for intracranial haemorrhage. Seven patients showed normal flow: six had hydrocephalus ex vacuo due to brain atrophy. One patient who underwent ventriculostomy 10 years ago showed a flow path through the opening. Seven patients showed hypermotile flow: three had normal pressure hydrocephalus, three had dementia, and in one the diagnosis remained unclear. The diagnostic efficacy of velocity mapping was significantly higher except for that of aqueductal stenosis. Our approach may be useful for diagnosis, therapy planning, and follow-up of different kinds of hydrocephalus. (orig.)

  11. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. de Brito

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  12. GIS-based seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

    2010-05-01

    permanent displacement potentially induced by an seismic scenario. Such methodologies found on the consideration that the conditions of seismic stability and the post-seismic functionality of engineering structures are tightly related to the entity of the permanent deformations that an earthquake can induce. Regarding the existing simplified procedures among slope stability models, Newmark's model is often used to derive indications about slope instabilities due to earthquakes. In this way, we have evaluated the seismically-induced landslides hazard in Sicily (Central Mediterranean) using the Newmark-like model. In order to determine the map distribution of the seismic ground-acceleration from an earthquake scenario, the attenuation-law of Sabetta & Pugliese has been used, analyzing some seismic recordings occurred in Italy. Also, by evaluating permanent displacements, the correlation of Ambraseys & Menu has been assumed. The seismic shaking slope vulnerability map of Sicily has been carried out using GIS application, also considering max seismic ground-acceleration peak distribution (in terms of exceedance probability for fixed time), slope acclivity, cohesion/angle of internal friction of outcropping rocks, allowing the zoning of the unstable slopes under seismic forces.

  13. Comparison of environmental and socio-economic domains of vulnerability to flood hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidel, M.; Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

    2009-04-01

    Socio-economic and environmental based vulnerability models have been developed within the research context of the FP6 project BRAHMATWINN. The conceptualisation of vulnerability has been defined in the project and is characterised as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, where sensitivity is used to refer to systems that are susceptible to the impacts of environmental stress. Adaptive capacity is used to refer to systems or resources available to communities that could help them adapt or cope with the adverse consequences of environmental stresses in the recovery phase. In a wider context the approach reflects the wider objective and conceptualizations of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) framework, where vulnerability is characterized as a component of overall risk. A methodology has been developed which delineates spatial units of vulnerability (VULNUS). These units share a specific common characteristic and allow the independent spatial modelling of a complex phenomena independent from administrative units and raster based approaches. An increasing detail of spatial data and complex decision problems require flexible means for scaled spatial representations, for mapping the dynamics and constant changes, and delivering the crucial information. Automated techniques of object-based image analysis (OBIA, Lang & Blaschke, 2006), capable of integrating a virtually unlimited set of spatial data sets, try to match the information extraction with our world view. To account for that, a flexible concept of manageable units is required. The term geon was proposed by Lang (2008) to describe generic spatial objects that are homogenous in terms of a varying spatial phenomena under the influence of, and partly controlled by, policy actions. The geon concept acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. It is flexible in terms of a certain perception of a problem

  14. Vulnerability Assessment of Building Frames Subjected to Progressive Collapse Caused by Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Nazri Fadzli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Progressive collapse is an initial local failure of the structural component and leading to the additional collapse of the building frames. This study investigated the vulnerability of four- and six-storey moment resisting concrete frame (MRCF buildings subjected to progressive collapse. The four- and six-storey MRCF buildings were designed based on British Standard (BS and Eurocode (EC. The differences between these two codes were investigated. Nonlinear static analysis, which is also known as pushover analysis (POA, and nonlinear dynamic analysis or incremental dynamic analysis (IDA, were performed for each model to obtain capacity curve and explore vulnerability measures. IDA was conducted using a sample of ground motion from an earthquake that occurred in Ranau, Sabah in 2015. The four-storey building was more vulnerable than the six-storey building.

  15. Groundwater pollution risk mapping for the Eocene aquifer of the Oum Er-Rabia basin, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettazarini, Said

    2006-11-01

    Sustainable development requires the management and preservation of water resources indispensable for all human activities. When groundwater constitutes the main water resource, vulnerability maps therefore are an important tool for identifying zones of high pollution risk and taking preventive measures in potential pollution sites. The vulnerability assessment for the Eocene aquifer in the Moroccan basin of Oum Er-Rabia is based on the DRASTIC method that uses seven parameters summarizing climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by using GIS techniques and applying the “generic” and “agricultural” models according to the DRASTIC charter. Resulting maps revealed that the aquifer is highly vulnerable in the western part of the basin and areas being under high contamination risk are more extensive when the “agricultural” model was applied.

  16. Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

    2016-03-01

    This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

  17. Complex motion of elevators in piecewise map model combined with circle map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2013-11-01

    We study the dynamic behavior in the elevator traffic controlled by capacity when the inflow rate of passengers into elevators varies periodically with time. The dynamics of elevators is described by the piecewise map model combined with the circle map. The motion of the elevators depends on the inflow rate, its period, and the number of elevators. The motion in the piecewise map model combined with the circle map shows a complex behavior different from the motion in the piecewise map model.

  18. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saheed A. Oke

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

  19. Towards high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Buongiorno Nardelli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The MyOcean R&D project MESCLA (MEsoSCaLe dynamical Analysis through combined model, satellite and in situ data was devoted to the high resolution 3-D retrieval of tracer and velocity fields in the oceans, based on the combination of in situ and satellite observations and quasi-geostrophic dynamical models. The retrieval techniques were also tested and compared with the output of a primitive equation model, with particular attention to the accuracy of the vertical velocity field as estimated through the Q vector formulation of the omega equation. The project focused on a test case, covering the region where the Gulf Stream separates from the US East Coast. This work demonstrated that innovative methods for the high resolution mapping of 3-D mesoscale dynamics from observations can be used to build the next generations of operational observation-based products.

  20. The Power of Being Vulnerable in Christian Soul Care: Common Humanity and Humility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyubo

    2017-02-01

    Soul caregivers often hesitate to be vulnerable in their pastoral practices. Jesus, however, embraced his vulnerabilities as a human to redeem humanity even though he was the Son of God. This paper first explores the dynamics of shame and power that make soul caregivers reluctant to accept their vulnerabilities and then describes the contributions of sharing caregiver's vulnerabilities in a soul care practice. This article argues that being vulnerable allows a soul caregiver to imitate Jesus by sharing in the client's common humanity, initiating an authentic relationship between the client and the soul caregiver; it is also a practice of humility, inviting God's cure in soul care. This study proposes the necessity of embracing vulnerability in soul care ministry, instead of hiding it.

  1. Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

    2015-01-01

    This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. The Karakum and Kyzylkum sand seas dynamics; mapping and palaeoclimatic interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maman, Shimrit; Blumberg, Dan G.; Tsoar, Haim; Porat, Naomi

    2015-04-01

    Sand seas are large basins in deserts that are mantled by wind-swept sand and that exhibit varying degrees of vegetation cover. Wilson (1973) was the first to globally map and classify sand seas. Beyond Wilson's maps, however, little research has been published regarding the Karakum and Kyzylkum sand seas of Central Asia. Wilson's maps delineate active ergs from inactive ergs based solely on precipitation. His assumption of annual average rainfall as a factor determining mobility vs. stability of sand seas is too simplistic and does not take into consideration other factors such as biogenic soil crusts and wind power, both of which are known to have major effects on the dynamics of sand dunes. Literature related to mapping and classifying the Central Asian ergs by remote sensing or sand sea classification state (stable/active) is lacking. Moreover, the palaeoclimatic significance of dunes in Central Asia is difficult to assess, as there has been few studies of dune stratigraphy and numerical ages are lacking. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is a firm optical dating method that is used to determine the elapsed time since quartz grains were last exposed to sunlight, thus, their burial. Yet, absolute ages indicating mobilization and stabilization of these sands, are still inadequately known and are here under discussion. The broad concern of this research was to determine the dynamics of the Central Asian sand seas and study the palaeoclimatic changes that brought to their stabilization. As there are no reliable maps or aeolian discussion of these sands, establishment of a digital data base was initially conducted, focusing on identifying and mapping these sand seas. The vast area and inaccessibility make traditional mapping methods virtually impossible. A variety of space-borne imagery both optical and radar, with varying spectral and spatial resolutions was used. These images provided the basis for mapping sand distribution, dune forms, and vegetation cover

  3. Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodney B. Siegel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. The CCVI assesses species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change within a defined geographic area, through the integration of (a species' range maps, (b information about species' natural history traits and ecological relationships, (c historic and current climate data, and (d spatially explicit climate change projections. We conducted the assessment under two different downscaled climate models with divergent projections about future precipitation through the middle of the 21st century. Assessments differed relatively little under the two climate models. Of five CCVI vulnerability ranking categories, only one species, White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura, received the most vulnerable rank, Extremely Vulnerable. No species received the second-highest vulnerability ranking, Highly Vulnerable. Sixteen species scored as Moderately Vulnerable using one or both climate models: Common Merganser (Mergus merganser, Osprey (Pandion haliaetus, Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis, Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus, Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus, Spotted Sandpiper (Actitis macularius, Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa, Black Swift (Cypseloides niger, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana, American Dipper (Cinclus mexicanus, Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus, American Pipit (Anthus rubescens, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis, Pine Grosbeak

  4. Dynamic T2-mapping during magnetic resonance guided high intensity focused ultrasound ablation of bone marrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waspe, Adam C.; Looi, Thomas; Mougenot, Charles; Amaral, Joao; Temple, Michael; Sivaloganathan, Siv; Drake, James M.

    2012-01-01

    Focal bone tumor treatments include amputation, limb-sparing surgical excision with bone reconstruction, and high-dose external-beam radiation therapy. Magnetic resonance guided high intensity focused ultrasound (MR-HIFU) is an effective non-invasive thermotherapy for palliative management of bone metastases pain. MR thermometry (MRT) measures the proton resonance frequency shift (PRFS) of water molecules and produces accurate ( 2 , since T 2 increases linearly in fat during heating. T 2 -mapping using dual echo times during a dynamic turbo spin-echo pulse sequence enabled rapid measurement of T 2 . Calibration of T 2 -based thermal maps involved heating the marrow in a bovine femur and simultaneously measuring T 2 and temperature with a thermocouple. A positive T 2 temperature dependence in bone marrow of 20 ms/°C was observed. Dynamic T 2 -mapping should enable accurate temperature monitoring during MR-HIFU treatment of bone marrow and shows promise for improving the safety and reducing the invasiveness of pediatric bone tumor treatments.

  5. StreamMap: Smooth Dynamic Visualization of High-Density Streaming Points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chenhui; Baciu, George; Han, Yu

    2018-03-01

    Interactive visualization of streaming points for real-time scatterplots and linear blending of correlation patterns is increasingly becoming the dominant mode of visual analytics for both big data and streaming data from active sensors and broadcasting media. To better visualize and interact with inter-stream patterns, it is generally necessary to smooth out gaps or distortions in the streaming data. Previous approaches either animate the points directly or present a sampled static heat-map. We propose a new approach, called StreamMap, to smoothly blend high-density streaming points and create a visual flow that emphasizes the density pattern distributions. In essence, we present three new contributions for the visualization of high-density streaming points. The first contribution is a density-based method called super kernel density estimation that aggregates streaming points using an adaptive kernel to solve the overlapping problem. The second contribution is a robust density morphing algorithm that generates several smooth intermediate frames for a given pair of frames. The third contribution is a trend representation design that can help convey the flow directions of the streaming points. The experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of StreamMap when dynamic visualization and visual analysis of trend patterns on streaming points are required.

  6. County-level heat vulnerability of urban and rural residents in Tibet, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Li; Woodward, Alistair; Cirendunzhu; Liu, Qiyong

    2016-01-12

    Tibet is especially vulnerable to climate change due to the relatively rapid rise of temperature over past decades. The effects on mortality and morbidity of extreme heat in Tibet have been examined in previous studies; no heat adaptation initiatives have yet been implemented. We estimated heat vulnerability of urban and rural populations in 73 Tibetan counties and identified potential areas for public health intervention and further research. According to data availability and vulnerability factors identified previously in Tibet and elsewhere, we selected 10 variables related to advanced age, low income, illiteracy, physical and mental disability, small living spaces and living alone. We separately created and mapped county-level cumulative heat vulnerability indices for urban and rural residents by summing up factor scores produced by a principal components analysis (PCA). For both study populations, PCA yielded four factors with similar structure. The components for rural and urban residents explained 76.5 % and 77.7 % respectively of the variability in the original vulnerability variables. We found spatial variability of heat vulnerability across counties, with generally higher vulnerability in high-altitude counties. Although we observed similar median values and ranges of the cumulative heat vulnerability index values among urban and rural residents overall, the pattern varied strongly from one county to another. We have developed a measure of population vulnerability to high temperatures in Tibet. These are preliminary findings, but they may assist targeted adaptation plans in response to future rapid warming in Tibet.

  7. Patterns of Freshwater Species Richness, Endemism, and Vulnerability in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanette K Howard

    Full Text Available The ranges and abundances of species that depend on freshwater habitats are declining worldwide. Efforts to counteract those trends are often hampered by a lack of information about species distribution and conservation status and are often strongly biased toward a few well-studied groups. We identified the 3,906 vascular plants, macroinvertebrates, and vertebrates native to California, USA, that depend on fresh water for at least one stage of their life history. We evaluated the conservation status for these taxa using existing government and non-governmental organization assessments (e.g., endangered species act, NatureServe, created a spatial database of locality observations or distribution information from ~400 data sources, and mapped patterns of richness, endemism, and vulnerability. Although nearly half of all taxa with conservation status (n = 1,939 are vulnerable to extinction, only 114 (6% of those vulnerable taxa have a legal mandate for protection in the form of formal inclusion on a state or federal endangered species list. Endemic taxa are at greater risk than non-endemics, with 90% of the 927 endemic taxa vulnerable to extinction. Records with spatial data were available for a total of 2,276 species (61%. The patterns of species richness differ depending on the taxonomic group analyzed, but are similar across taxonomic level. No particular taxonomic group represents an umbrella for all species, but hotspots of high richness for listed species cover 40% of the hotspots for all other species and 58% of the hotspots for vulnerable freshwater species. By mapping freshwater species hotspots we show locations that represent the top priority for conservation action in the state. This study identifies opportunities to fill gaps in the evaluation of conservation status for freshwater taxa in California, to address the lack of occurrence information for nearly 40% of freshwater taxa and nearly 40% of watersheds in the state, and to

  8. Exploring Effect of Location Number on Map-Based Graphical Password Authentication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Weizhi; Lee, Wang; Au, Man Ho

    2017-01-01

    select their secrets (geographical points) on a world map. In particular, PassMap allows users to select two locations on a map, while GeoPass reduces the number of locations to only one. At first glance, selecting one location is more vulnerable to attacks, while increasing the location number may add...

  9. Mapping migratory flyways in Asia using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Eric C; Newman, Scott H; Prosser, Diann J; Xiao, Xiangming; Ze, Luo; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Balachandran, Sivananinthaperumal; Takekawa, John Y

    2015-01-01

    Identifying movement routes and stopover sites is necessary for developing effective management and conservation strategies for migratory animals. In the case of migratory birds, a collection of migration routes, known as a flyway, is often hundreds to thousands of kilometers long and can extend across political boundaries. Flyways encompass the entire geographic range between the breeding and non-breeding areas of a population, species, or a group of species, and they provide spatial frameworks for management and conservation across international borders. Existing flyway maps are largely qualitative accounts based on band returns and survey data rather than observed movement routes. In this study, we use satellite and GPS telemetry data and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to build upon existing maps and describe waterfowl space use probabilistically in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. Our approach provided new information on migratory routes that was not easily attainable with existing methods to describe flyways. Utilization distributions from dynamic Brownian bridge movement models identified key staging and stopover sites, migration corridors and general flyway outlines in the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways. A map of space use from ruddy shelducks depicted two separate movement corridors within the Central Asian Flyway, likely representing two distinct populations that show relatively strong connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Bar-headed geese marked at seven locations in the Central Asian Flyway showed heaviest use at several stopover sites in the same general region of high-elevation lakes along the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our analysis of data from multiple Anatidae species marked at sites throughout Asia highlighted major movement corridors across species and confirmed that the Central Asian and East Asian-Australasian Flyways were spatially distinct. The dynamic Brownian bridge

  10. GIS BASED AQUIFER VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN HANGZHOU-JIAXINGHUZHOU PLAIN, CHINA

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    Jean de Dieu Bazimenyera

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain is among the regions which faces the shortage of water due to its increasing population, industrialization, agriculture and domestic use; hence the high dependence on groundwater. In China, the exploitation of aquifers has been historically undertaken without proper concern for environmental impacts or even the concept of sustainable yield. In order to maintain basin aquifer as a source of water for the area, it is necessary to find out whether certain locations in this groundwater basin are susceptible to receive and transmit pollution, this is why the main objective of this research is to find out the groundwater vulnerable zones using Geographical Information System (GIS model in Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain. GIS was used to create groundwater vulnerability map by overlaying hydro-geological data. The input of the model was provided by the following seven data layers: Depth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone and hydraulic Conductivity. This study showed that Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou area is grouped into three categories: High vulnerable zone with 27.4% of the total area, moderate vulnerable zone which occupy the great part of that area 60.5% and low vulnerable zone with 12.1%. This research suggests first the prioritization of high vulnerable areas in order to prevent the further pollution to already polluted areas; next the frequent monitoring of vulnerable zones to monitor the changing level of pollutants; and finally suggests that this model can be an effective tool for local authorities who are responsible for managing groundwater resources in that area.

  11. Stochastic sensitivity analysis of periodic attractors in non-autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems based on stroboscopic map

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Kong-Ming, E-mail: kmguo@xidian.edu.cn [School of Electromechanical Engineering, Xidian University, P.O. Box 187, Xi' an 710071 (China); Jiang, Jun, E-mail: jun.jiang@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2014-07-04

    To apply stochastic sensitivity function method, which can estimate the probabilistic distribution of stochastic attractors, to non-autonomous dynamical systems, a 1/N-period stroboscopic map for a periodic motion is constructed in order to discretize the continuous cycle into a discrete one. In this way, the sensitivity analysis of a cycle for discrete map can be utilized and a numerical algorithm for the stochastic sensitivity analysis of periodic solutions of non-autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems under stochastic disturbances is devised. An external excited Duffing oscillator and a parametric excited laser system are studied as examples to show the validity of the proposed method. - Highlights: • A method to analyze sensitivity of stochastic periodic attractors in non-autonomous dynamical systems is proposed. • Probabilistic distribution around periodic attractors in an external excited Φ{sup 6} Duffing system is obtained. • Probabilistic distribution around a periodic attractor in a parametric excited laser system is determined.

  12. Spatial Supermarket Redlining and Neighborhood Vulnerability: A Case Study of Hartford, Connecticut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mengyao; Debarchana, Ghosh

    2016-02-01

    The disinclination of chain supermarkets to locate or pull out existing stores from impoverished neighborhoods is termed as "supermarket redlining". This paper attempts to map and understand the spatial effects of potential supermarket redlining on food vulnerability in urban disadvantaged neighborhoods of Hartford, Connecticut. Using a combination of statistical and spatial analysis functions, we first, built a Supermarket Redlining Index (SuRI) from five indicators such as sales volume, employee count, accepts food coupons from federally assisted programs, and size and population density of the service area to rank supermarkets in the order of their importance. Second, to understand the effect of redlining, a Supermarket Redlining Impact Model (SuRIM) was built with eleven indicators describing both the socioeconomic and food access vulnerabilities. The interaction of these vulnerabilities would identify the final outcome: neighborhoods where the impact of supermarket redlining would be critical. Results mapped critical areas in the inner-city of Hartford where if a nearby supermarket closes or relocates to a suburb with limited mitigation efforts to gill the grocery gap, a large number of minority, poor, and disadvantaged residents will experience difficulties to access healthy food leading to food insecurity or perhaps a food desert. We also suggest mitigation efforts to reduce the impact of large supermarket closures.

  13. The necessity of flood risk maps on Timis River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldescu, Geogr Catalin

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims to clarify the necessity of risk reduction in flood prone areas along the Timis River. Different methods to reduce risk in flood prone areas are analyzed as well. According to the EU Flood Directive it is mandatory for the European countries to develop flood maps and flood risk maps. The maps help to assess the vulnerable zones in the floodable (i.e. flood prone) areas. Many European countries have produced maps which identify areas prone to flooding events for specific known return periods. In Romania the flood risk maps have not been yet produced, but the process has been started to be implemented at the national and regional level, therefore the first results will be soon available. Banat Hydrographical Area was affected by severe floods on Timis River in 2000, 2005 and 2006. The 2005 flood was the most devastating one with large economic losses. As a result of these catastrophes the need for generating flood risk maps along the Timis. River was clearly stated. The water management experts can use these maps in order to identify the 'hot spots' in Timis catchment, give the people a better understanding of flood risk issues and help reducing flood risk more efficient in the identified vulnerable areas.

  14. Groundwater vulnerability assessment to assist the measurement planning of the water framework directive - a practical approach with stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkhoff, K.

    2007-05-01

    An evaluation scheme is presented in this paper which can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability according to the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The evaluation scheme results in a groundwater vulnerability map identifying areas of high, medium and low vulnerability, as necessary for the measurement planning of the WFD. The evaluation scheme is based on the definition of the vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It considers exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the region. The adaptive capacity is evaluated in an actors' platform, which was constituted for the region in the PartizipA ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture") project. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, 21% of the catchment area was classified as being highly vulnerable, whereas 73% has medium vulnerability and 6% has low vulnerability. Thus, a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach is presented, which can be used in practice on a catchment scale for the WFD measurement planning.

  15. Mean-field dynamics of a population of stochastic map neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franović, Igor; Maslennikov, Oleg V.; Bačić, Iva; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

    2017-07-01

    We analyze the emergent regimes and the stimulus-response relationship of a population of noisy map neurons by means of a mean-field model, derived within the framework of cumulant approach complemented by the Gaussian closure hypothesis. It is demonstrated that the mean-field model can qualitatively account for stability and bifurcations of the exact system, capturing all the generic forms of collective behavior, including macroscopic excitability, subthreshold oscillations, periodic or chaotic spiking, and chaotic bursting dynamics. Apart from qualitative analogies, we find a substantial quantitative agreement between the exact and the approximate system, as reflected in matching of the parameter domains admitting the different dynamical regimes, as well as the characteristic properties of the associated time series. The effective model is further shown to reproduce with sufficient accuracy the phase response curves of the exact system and the assembly's response to external stimulation of finite amplitude and duration.

  16. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  17. National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

  18. Dynamic T{sub 2}-mapping during magnetic resonance guided high intensity focused ultrasound ablation of bone marrow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waspe, Adam C.; Looi, Thomas; Mougenot, Charles; Amaral, Joao; Temple, Michael; Sivaloganathan, Siv; Drake, James M. [Centre for Image Guided Innovation and Therapeutic Intervention, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8 (Canada); Philips Healthcare Canada, Markham, ON, L6C 2S3 (Canada); Centre for Image Guided Innovation and Therapeutic Intervention, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8 (Canada); Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1 (Canada); Centre for Image Guided Innovation and Therapeutic Intervention, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8 (Canada)

    2012-11-28

    Focal bone tumor treatments include amputation, limb-sparing surgical excision with bone reconstruction, and high-dose external-beam radiation therapy. Magnetic resonance guided high intensity focused ultrasound (MR-HIFU) is an effective non-invasive thermotherapy for palliative management of bone metastases pain. MR thermometry (MRT) measures the proton resonance frequency shift (PRFS) of water molecules and produces accurate (<1 Degree-Sign C) and dynamic (<5s) thermal maps in soft tissues. PRFS-MRT is ineffective in fatty tissues such as yellow bone marrow and, since accurate temperature measurements are required in the bone to ensure adequate thermal dose, MR-HIFU is not indicated for primary bone tumor treatments. Magnetic relaxation times are sensitive to lipid temperature and we hypothesize that bone marrow temperature can be determined accurately by measuring changes in T{sub 2}, since T{sub 2} increases linearly in fat during heating. T{sub 2}-mapping using dual echo times during a dynamic turbo spin-echo pulse sequence enabled rapid measurement of T{sub 2}. Calibration of T{sub 2}-based thermal maps involved heating the marrow in a bovine femur and simultaneously measuring T{sub 2} and temperature with a thermocouple. A positive T{sub 2} temperature dependence in bone marrow of 20 ms/ Degree-Sign C was observed. Dynamic T{sub 2}-mapping should enable accurate temperature monitoring during MR-HIFU treatment of bone marrow and shows promise for improving the safety and reducing the invasiveness of pediatric bone tumor treatments.

  19. Hydrologic variability governs population dynamics of a vulnerable amphibian in an arid environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin R Zylstra

    Full Text Available Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis. Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01. Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01. Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems.

  20. Conformational and functional analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories by Self-Organising Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella Fabio

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular dynamics (MD simulations are powerful tools to investigate the conformational dynamics of proteins that is often a critical element of their function. Identification of functionally relevant conformations is generally done clustering the large ensemble of structures that are generated. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOMs were reported performing more accurately and providing more consistent results than traditional clustering algorithms in various data mining problems. We present a novel strategy to analyse and compare conformational ensembles of protein domains using a two-level approach that combines SOMs and hierarchical clustering. Results The conformational dynamics of the α-spectrin SH3 protein domain and six single mutants were analysed by MD simulations. The Cα's Cartesian coordinates of conformations sampled in the essential space were used as input data vectors for SOM training, then complete linkage clustering was performed on the SOM prototype vectors. A specific protocol to optimize a SOM for structural ensembles was proposed: the optimal SOM was selected by means of a Taguchi experimental design plan applied to different data sets, and the optimal sampling rate of the MD trajectory was selected. The proposed two-level approach was applied to single trajectories of the SH3 domain independently as well as to groups of them at the same time. The results demonstrated the potential of this approach in the analysis of large ensembles of molecular structures: the possibility of producing a topological mapping of the conformational space in a simple 2D visualisation, as well as of effectively highlighting differences in the conformational dynamics directly related to biological functions. Conclusions The use of a two-level approach combining SOMs and hierarchical clustering for conformational analysis of structural ensembles of proteins was proposed. It can easily be extended to other study cases and to

  1. Conformational and functional analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories by Self-Organising Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are powerful tools to investigate the conformational dynamics of proteins that is often a critical element of their function. Identification of functionally relevant conformations is generally done clustering the large ensemble of structures that are generated. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOMs) were reported performing more accurately and providing more consistent results than traditional clustering algorithms in various data mining problems. We present a novel strategy to analyse and compare conformational ensembles of protein domains using a two-level approach that combines SOMs and hierarchical clustering. Results The conformational dynamics of the α-spectrin SH3 protein domain and six single mutants were analysed by MD simulations. The Cα's Cartesian coordinates of conformations sampled in the essential space were used as input data vectors for SOM training, then complete linkage clustering was performed on the SOM prototype vectors. A specific protocol to optimize a SOM for structural ensembles was proposed: the optimal SOM was selected by means of a Taguchi experimental design plan applied to different data sets, and the optimal sampling rate of the MD trajectory was selected. The proposed two-level approach was applied to single trajectories of the SH3 domain independently as well as to groups of them at the same time. The results demonstrated the potential of this approach in the analysis of large ensembles of molecular structures: the possibility of producing a topological mapping of the conformational space in a simple 2D visualisation, as well as of effectively highlighting differences in the conformational dynamics directly related to biological functions. Conclusions The use of a two-level approach combining SOMs and hierarchical clustering for conformational analysis of structural ensembles of proteins was proposed. It can easily be extended to other study cases and to conformational ensembles from

  2. Perspectives on social vulnerability and ways to improve community resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chicoș Alina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Scientific recognition of the resilience concept is becoming compelling in extending the way contemporary spatial systems are analysed as well as in defining a new approach in establishing spatial planning principles and policies. In this view, our study emphasises the issue of spatial development in areas prone to earthquakes, floods and landslides. Therefore, resilience requires the assessment of vulnerable spatial components. Local governance interventions are more or less focused on risk management measures. Moreover, building safer communities through risk governance relies on different variables. Making a distinction between risk components and the predictors of increased resilience could shed light on the local decision-making process. In this paper, vulnerability addresses the lack of safety in terms of individual, household and community wellbeing when the issue of environmental restrictions emerge. In order to reduce the vulnerability of communities living in natural risk prone areas, spatial planning often turns to interdisciplinary analysis methods that allow an in-depth perspective on the interplay between social and natural elements. As such, spatial planning stands as the first step in reducing social vulnerability and should approach the less explored advantages of participatory mapping and local knowledge systems.

  3. Remote Sensing-based Models of Soil Vulnerability to Compaction and Erosion from Off-highway Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, M. L.; Webb, R. H.; Norman, L.; Psillas, J.; Rosenberg, A.; Carmichael, S.; Petrakis, R.; Sparks, P.

    2014-12-01

    Intensive off-road vehicle use for immigration, smuggling, and security of the United States-Mexico border has prompted concerns about long-term human impacts on sensitive desert ecosystems. To help managers identify areas susceptible to soil erosion from vehicle disturbances, we developed a series of erosion potential models based on factors from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), with particular focus on the management factor (P-factor) and vegetation cover (C-factor). To better express the vulnerability of soils to human disturbances, a soil compaction index (applied as the P-factor) was calculated as the difference in saturated hydrologic conductivity (Ks) between disturbed and undisturbed soils, which was then scaled up to remote sensing-based maps of vehicle tracks and digital soils maps. The C-factor was improved using a satellite-based vegetation index, which was better correlated with estimated ground cover (r2 = 0.77) than data derived from regional land cover maps (r2 = 0.06). RUSLE factors were normalized to give equal weight to all contributing factors, which provided more management-specific information on vulnerable areas where vehicle compaction of sensitive soils intersects with steep slopes and low vegetation cover. Resulting spatial data on vulnerability and erosion potential provide land managers with information to identify critically disturbed areas and potential restoration sites where off-road driving should be restricted to reduce further degradation.

  4. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  5. Groundwater vulnerability assessment in karstic aquifers using COP method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya

    2018-05-02

    Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus

  6. Can Organic Farming Reduce Vulnerabilities and Enhance the Resilience of the European Food System? A Critical Assessment Using System Dynamics Structural Thinking Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Brzezina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In a world of growing complexity and uncertainty, food systems must be resilient, i.e., able to deliver sustainable and equitable food and nutrition security in the face of multiple shocks and stresses. The resilience of the European food system that relies mostly on conventional agriculture is a matter of genuine concern and a new approach is called for. Does then organic farming have the potential to reduce vulnerabilities and improve the resilience of the European food system to shocks and stresses? In this paper, we use system dynamics structural thinking tools to identify the vulnerabilities of the conventional food system that result from both its internal structure as well as its exposure to external disturbances. Further, we evaluate whether organic farming can reduce the vulnerabilities. We argue here that organic farming has some potential to bring resilience to the European food system, but it has to be carefully designed and implemented to overcome the contradictions between the dominant socio-economic organization of food production and the ability to enact all organic farming’s principles—health, ecology, fairness and care—on a broader scale.

  7. Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning

    2018-03-01

    Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978-2015) and DELs (1990-2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.

  8. Disparity Map Generation from Illumination Variant Stereo Images Using Efficient Hierarchical Dynamic Programming

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    Viral H. Borisagar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel hierarchical stereo matching algorithm is presented which gives disparity map as output from illumination variant stereo pair. Illumination difference between two stereo images can lead to undesirable output. Stereo image pair often experience illumination variations due to many factors like real and practical situation, spatially and temporally separated camera positions, environmental illumination fluctuation, and the change in the strength or position of the light sources. Window matching and dynamic programming techniques are employed for disparity map estimation. Good quality disparity map is obtained with the optimized path. Homomorphic filtering is used as a preprocessing step to lessen illumination variation between the stereo images. Anisotropic diffusion is used to refine disparity map to give high quality disparity map as a final output. The robust performance of the proposed approach is suitable for real life circumstances where there will be always illumination variation between the images. The matching is carried out in a sequence of images representing the same scene, however in different resolutions. The hierarchical approach adopted decreases the computation time of the stereo matching problem. This algorithm can be helpful in applications like robot navigation, extraction of information from aerial surveys, 3D scene reconstruction, and military and security applications. Similarity measure SAD is often sensitive to illumination variation. It produces unacceptable disparity map results for illumination variant left and right images. Experimental results show that our proposed algorithm produces quality disparity maps for both wide range of illumination variant and invariant stereo image pair.

  9. The Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Environments through Freely Available Datasets: The Case Study of Napoli City (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ines Alberico

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of tsunami catalogues and of data published on the NOAA web site pointed out that in the Mediterranean basin, from 2000 B.C. to present, about 480 tsunamis occurred, of which at least a third involved the Italian peninsula. Within this framework, a GIS-aided procedure that takes advantage of spatial analysis to apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment model of urban environments is presented, with the main purpose of assessing the vulnerability of wide areas at spatial resolution of the census district. The method was applied to the sector of Napoli city enclosed between Posillipo Hill and the Somma-Vesuvio volcano because of the high population rates (apex value of 5000 inh/km2 and potential occurrence of hazardous events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass failures that can trigger tsunamis. The vulnerability status of the urban environment was depicted on a map. About 21% of the possibly inundated area, corresponding with the lowlands along the shoreline, shows a very high tsunami vulnerability. High vulnerability characterizes 26% of inundable zones while medium-low vulnerability typifies a wide area of the Sebeto-Volla plain, ca 800 m away from the shoreline. This map represents a good tool to plan the actions aimed at reducing risk and promoting resilience of the territory.

  10. Using Remotely Sensed Data to Map Urban Vulnerability to Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, William L.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation defines remote sensing, and presents examples of remote sensing and astronaut photography, which has been a part of many space missions. The presentation then reviews the project aimed at analyzing urban vulnerability to climate change, which is to test the hypotheses that Exposure to excessively warm weather threatens human health in all types of climate regimes; Heat kills and sickens multitudes of people around the globe every year -- directly and indirectly, and Climate change, coupled with urban development, will impact human health. Using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixing Analysis (MESMA), and the Phoenix urban area as the example, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is calculated, a change detection analysis is shown, and surface temperature is shown.

  11. Day-Ahead Anticipation of Complex Network Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, S. Z.; Wang, Paul P.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, a day-ahead anticipation of complex network vulnerability for an intentional threat of an attack or a shock is carried out. An ecological observer is introduced for that reason, which is a watch in the intentional multiverse, tiled by cells; dynamics of the intentional threat for a day-ahead is characterized by a space-time cell; spreading of the intentional threat is derived from its energy; duration of the intentional threat is found by the self-assembling of a space-time cell; the lower bound of probability is assessed to anticipate for a day-ahead the intentional threat; it is indicated that this vulnerability anticipation for a day-ahead is right when the intentional threat leads to dimension doubling of the complex network.

  12. The Use of Geospatial Technologies in Flood Hazard Mapping and Assessment: Case Study from River Evros

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzafou, Angeliki; Markogianni, Vasiliki; Dimitriou, Elias

    2017-02-01

    Many scientists link climate change to the increase of the extreme weather phenomena frequency, which combined with land use changes often lead to disasters with severe social and economic effects. Especially floods as a consequence of heavy rainfall can put vulnerable human and natural systems such as transboundary wetlands at risk. In order to meet the European Directive 2007/60/EC requirements for the development of flood risk management plans, the flood hazard map of Evros transboundary watershed was produced after a grid-based GIS modelling method that aggregates the main factors related to the development of floods: topography, land use, geology, slope, flow accumulation and rainfall intensity. The verification of this tool was achieved through the comparison between the produced hazard map and the inundation maps derived from the supervised classification of Landsat 5 and 7 satellite imageries of four flood events that took place at Evros delta proximity, a wetland of international importance. The comparison of the modelled output (high and very high flood hazard areas) with the extent of the inundated areas as mapped from the satellite data indicated the satisfactory performance of the model. Furthermore, the vulnerability of each land use against the flood events was examined. Geographically Weighted Regression has also been applied between the final flood hazard map and the major factors in order to ascertain their contribution to flood events. The results accredited the existence of a strong relationship between land uses and flood hazard indicating the flood susceptibility of the lowlands and agricultural land. A dynamic transboundary flood hazard management plan should be developed in order to meet the Flood Directive requirements for adequate and coordinated mitigation practices to reduce flood risk.

  13. Analysis of Environmental Vulnerability in The Landslide Areas (Case Study: Semarang Regency)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hani'ah; Firdaus, H. S.; Nugraha, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    The Land conversion can increase the risk of landslide disaster in Semarang Regency caused by human activity. Remote sensing and geographic information system to be used in this study to mapping the landslide areas because satellite image data can represent the object on the earth surface in wide area coverage. Satellite image Landsat 8 is used to mapping land cover that processed by supervised classification method. The parameters to mapping landslide areas are based on land cover, rainfall, slope, geological factors and soil types. Semarang Regency have the minimum value of landslide is 1.6 and the maximum value is 4.3, which is dominated by landslide prone areas about 791.27 km2. The calculation of the environmental vulnerability index in the study area is based on Perka BNPB No. 2/2012. Accumulation score of environmental vulnerability index is moderate value, that means environment condition must be considered, such as vegetation as ground cover and many others aspects. The range of NDVI value shows that density level in conservation areas (0.030 - 0.844) and conservation forest (0.045 - 0.849), which rarely until high density level. The results of this study furthermore can be assessed to reduce disaster risks from landslide as an effort of disaster preventive.

  14. Coupled Vulnerability and Resilience: the Dynamics of Cross-Scale Interactions in Post-Katrina New Orleans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin F. Gotham

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the impact of trauma on cross-scale interactions in order to identify the major social-ecological factors affecting the pace and trajectory of post-Katrina rebuilding in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. Disaster and traumatic events create and activate networks and linkages at different spatial and institutional levels to provide information and resources related to post-trauma recovery and rebuilding. The extension, intensification, and acceleration of cross-scale linkages and interactions in response to trauma alter organizational couplings, which then contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems. Rather than viewing urban ecosystems as either resilient or vulnerable, we conceptualize them as embodying both resilient and vulnerable components. This integrated approach directs analytical attention to the impact of socio-legal regulations, government policies, and institutional actions on resilience and vulnerability, which are also systemic properties of urban ecosystems.

  15. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  16. Vulnerability analysis of process plants subject to domino effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik; Abbassi, Rouzbeh; Khan, Faisal

    2016-01-01

    In the context of domino effects, vulnerability analysis of chemical and process plants aims to identify and protect installations which are relatively more susceptible to damage and thus contribute more to the initiation or propagation of domino effects. In the present study, we have developed a methodology based on graph theory for domino vulnerability analysis of hazardous installations within process plants, where owning to the large number of installations or complex interdependencies, the application of sophisticated reasoning approaches such as Bayesian network is limited. We have taken advantage of a hypothetical chemical storage plant to develop the methodology and validated the results using a dynamic Bayesian network approach. The efficacy and out-performance of the developed methodology have been demonstrated via a real-life complex case study. - Highlights: • Graph theory is a reliable tool for vulnerability analysis of chemical plants as to domino effects. • All-closeness centrality score can be used to identify most vulnerable installations. • As for complex chemical plants, the methodology outperforms Bayesian network.

  17. Assessment of urban vulnerability towards floods using an indicator-based approach – a case study for Santiago de Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Müller

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Regularly occurring flood events do have a history in Santiago de Chile, the capital city of Chile and study area for this research. The analysis of flood events, the resulting damage and its causes are crucial prerequisites for the development of risk prevention measures. The goal of this research is to empirically investigate the vulnerability towards floods in Santiago de Chile as one component of flood risk. The analysis and assessment of vulnerability is based on the application of a multi-scale (individual, household, municipal level set of indicators and the use of a broad range of data. The case-specific set of indicators developed in this study shows the relevant variables and their interrelations influencing the flood vulnerability in the study area. It provides a decision support tool for stakeholders and allows for monitoring and evaluating changes over time. The paper outlines how GIS, census, and remote sensing data as well as household surveys and expert interviews are used as an information base for the derivation of a vulnerability map for two municipalities located in the eastern part of Santiago de Chile. The generation of vulnerability maps representing the two different perspectives of local decision makers (experts and affected households is exemplified and discussed using the developed methodology.

  18. Deep convolutional neural network processing of aerial stereo imagery to monitor vulnerable zones near power lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qayyum, Abdul; Saad, Naufal M.; Kamel, Nidal; Malik, Aamir Saeed

    2018-01-01

    The monitoring of vegetation near high-voltage transmission power lines and poles is tedious. Blackouts present a huge challenge to power distribution companies and often occur due to tree growth in hilly and rural areas. There are numerous methods of monitoring hazardous overgrowth that are expensive and time-consuming. Accurate estimation of tree and vegetation heights near power poles can prevent the disruption of power transmission in vulnerable zones. This paper presents a cost-effective approach based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm to compute the height (depth maps) of objects proximal to power poles and transmission lines. The proposed CNN extracts and classifies features by employing convolutional pooling inputs to fully connected data layers that capture prominent features from stereo image patches. Unmanned aerial vehicle or satellite stereo image datasets can thus provide a feasible and cost-effective approach that identifies threat levels based on height and distance estimations of hazardous vegetation and other objects. Results were compared with extant disparity map estimation techniques, such as graph cut, dynamic programming, belief propagation, and area-based methods. The proposed method achieved an accuracy rate of 90%.

  19. Superconducting linac beam dynamics with high-order maps for RF resonators

    CERN Document Server

    Geraci, A A; Pardo, R C; 10.1016/j.nima.2003.11.177

    2004-01-01

    The arbitrary-order map beam optics code COSY Infinity has recently been adapted to calculate accurate high-order ion-optical maps for electrostatic and radio-frequency accelerating structures. The beam dynamics of the superconducting low-velocity positive-ion injector linac for the ATLAS accelerator at Argonne National Lab is used to demonstrate some advantages of the new simulation capability. The injector linac involves four different types of superconducting accelerating structures and has a total of 18 resonators. The detailed geometry for each of the accelerating cavities is included, allowing an accurate representation of the on- and off-axis electric fields. The fields are obtained within the code from a Poisson-solver for cylindrically symmetric electrodes of arbitrary geometry. The transverse focusing is done with superconducting solenoids. A detailed comparison of the transverse and longitudinal phase space is made with the conventional ray-tracing code LINRAY. The two codes are evaluated for ease ...

  20. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  1. Intrinsic and specific vulnerability of groundwater in central Spain: the risk of nitrate pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Bastida, Juan J.; Arauzo, Mercedes; Valladolid, Maria

    2010-05-01

    The intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater in the Comunidad de Madrid (central Spain) was evaluated using the DRASTIC and GOD indexes. Groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution was also assessed using the composite DRASTIC (CD) and nitrate vulnerability (NV) indexes. The utility of these methods was tested by analyzing the spatial distribution of nitrate concentrations in the different aquifers located in the study area: the Tertiary Detrital Aquifer, the Moor Limestone Aquifer, the Cretaceous Limestone Aquifer and the Quaternary Aquifer. Vulnerability maps based on these four indexes showed very similar results, identifying the Quaternary Aquifer and the lower sub-unit of the Moor Limestone Aquifer as deposits subjected to a high risk of nitrate pollution due to intensive agriculture. As far as the spatial distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations is concerned, the NV index showed the greatest statistical significance ( p Comunidad de Madrid, in line with European Union Directive 91/676/EEC.

  2. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  3. A Brazilian Vulnerability Index Towards Natural Disasters and Climatic Change - Flashfloods and Landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debortoli, N. S.; Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Marengo, J. A.; Rodrigues, R.

    2015-12-01

    There are some evidences that hydrological climate extremes events have become more frequent an intense in the last decades due to climatic change. In Brazil, flashfloods and landslides were responsible for 74% of the deaths related to natural disasters in 1991-2010 period. In this sense, climate change could be considered a threat which can further increase these numbers, if actions of adaptation and reducing vulnerability are not taken. To evaluate Brazil's vulnerability hotspots to these disasters, two vulnerability indexes were developed using three sets of variables: (1) climate, with IPCC climate extreme indexes; (2) environmental, including land use, drainage systems, relief map, slope, road density and hydrography variables; (3) socioeconomic, including Gini coefficient, HDI (Human Development Index), housing conditions and poverty-related index. The variables were normalized on a scale between 0 to 1 and related using Map Algebra technique (ArcGIS). As part of the effort to contribute to the elaboration of the Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and to contribute to the assessment of impacts on strategic country's issues, simulations at higher resolution were carried out using Eta-20km RCM (Regional Climate Model) nested with two global climate models: HadGEM ES and MIROC 5 (INPE Brazilian National Institute for Space Research). For the baseline period of 1961-1990, the vulnerability indexes were adjusted by an iterative process, which was validated by comparing it to the Brazilian National Disasters Data. The same indexes found at baseline were used to estimate the vulnerability until the end of the XXI century, using the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. The results indicate a large increase in Brazil's vulnerability to landslides mainly in coastal zone, southern states, high lands of southeast states, and along the Amazon River due to climatic

  4. Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

    2014-11-28

    Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

  5. A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jin; Li, Zheng; Li, Shuliang; Zhang, Yanyan

    2015-07-01

    There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

  6. Development and Application of Urban Landslide Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Reflecting Social and Economic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonkyung Park

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban landslide vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed with major focus on considering urban social and economic aspects. The proposed methodology was developed based on the landslide susceptibility maps that Korean Forest Service utilizes to identify landslide source areas. Frist, debris flows are propagated to urban areas from such source areas by Flow-R (flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a regional scale, and then urban vulnerability is assessed by two categories: physical and socioeconomic aspect. The physical vulnerability is related to buildings that can be impacted by a landslide event. This study considered two popular building structure types, reinforced-concrete frame and nonreinforced-concrete frame, to assess the physical vulnerability. The socioeconomic vulnerability is considered a function of the resistant levels of the vulnerable people, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. To illustrate the validity of the proposed methodology, physical and socioeconomic vulnerability levels are analyzed for Seoul, Korea, using the suggested approach. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  7. Local Dynamic Map als modulares Software Framework für Fahrerassistenzsysteme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisdorf, P.; Auerswald, A.; Wanielik, G.

    2015-11-01

    Moderne Fahrerassistenzsysteme basieren auf der Verarbeitung von Informationen, welche durch die Umfeldwahrnehmung mit unterschiedlicher Sensorik erfolgt. Neben den Informationen aus dem eigenen Fahrzeug ergeben sich durch unterschiedliche Kommunikationsmöglichkeiten (Car2Car, Car2X,...) erweiterte Umfeldwahrnehmungen (siehe Abb. 1). Diese Daten gilt es aufbereitet und zielorientiert einer Anwendung zur Verfügung zu stellen, was mit Hilfe einer Local Dynamic Map (LDM) erfüllt werden kann. Die vorliegende Veröffentlichung beschreibt den Aufbau, Verwendungszweck und Eigenschaften einer entwickelten LDM und geht auf einige Applikationen ein, die mit Hilfe dieser realisiert wurden.

  8. The brain decade in debate: VI. Sensory and motor maps: dynamics and plasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Das

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is an edited transcription of a virtual symposium promoted by the Brazilian Society of Neuroscience and Behavior (SBNeC. Although the dynamics of sensory and motor representations have been one of the most studied features of the central nervous system, the actual mechanisms of brain plasticity that underlie the dynamic nature of sensory and motor maps are not entirely unraveled. Our discussion began with the notion that the processing of sensory information depends on many different cortical areas. Some of them are arranged topographically and others have non-topographic (analytical properties. Besides a sensory component, every cortical area has an efferent output that can be mapped and can influence motor behavior. Although new behaviors might be related to modifications of the sensory or motor representations in a given cortical area, they can also be the result of the acquired ability to make new associations between specific sensory cues and certain movements, a type of learning known as conditioning motor learning. Many types of learning are directly related to the emotional or cognitive context in which a new behavior is acquired. This has been demonstrated by paradigms in which the receptive field properties of cortical neurons are modified when an animal is engaged in a given discrimination task or when a triggering feature is paired with an aversive stimulus. The role of the cholinergic input from the nucleus basalis to the neocortex was also highlighted as one important component of the circuits responsible for the context-dependent changes that can be induced in cortical maps.

  9. Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

  10. Forecasting Vulnerability to Drought-related Mortality in Western US Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Climate-driven tree mortality has been documented across the globe, and continued future mortality is expected. Such mortality could pose threats to ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. Therefore, forecasting future mortality is critical. Ecosystem process models can be a tool for forecasting forest vulnerability to drought. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to forecast forest vulnerability to drought-related mortality in the western US. We increased the ecological resolution by parameterizing CLM4.5 to recognize 14 different forest types common to the region. We used published physiological traits and tuned CLM4.5 to match present day above ground carbon stocks. We incorporated the influence of drought stress through species- or genus-specific controls on stomatal conductance given soil moisture and increased rates of leaf shed during prolonged periods of low soil moisture. We ran CLM4.5 at a 1/24 degree spatial resolution in offline mode using climate forcing data. We compare forest growth and carbon sequestration metrics (e.g. chronic reduction of GPP below its potential) between historical and future time periods to determine relevant metrics of vulnerability to drought-related mortality. Using the robust metrics, we will forecast and map future forest vulnerability to drought-related mortality given a range of climate scenarios.

  11. Applying a statewide geospatial leaching tool for assessing soil vulnerability ratings for agrochemicals across the contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan; Hantush, Mohamed M

    2015-06-15

    A large-scale leaching assessment tool not only illustrates soil (or groundwater) vulnerability in unmonitored areas, but also can identify areas of potential concern for agrochemical contamination. This study describes the methodology of how the statewide leaching tool in Hawaii modified recently for use with pesticides and volatile organic compounds can be extended to the national assessment of soil vulnerability ratings. For this study, the tool was updated by extending the soil and recharge maps to cover the lower 48 states in the United States (US). In addition, digital maps of annual pesticide use (at a national scale) as well as detailed soil properties and monthly recharge rates (at high spatial and temporal resolutions) were used to examine variations in the leaching (loads) of pesticides for the upper soil horizons. Results showed that the extended tool successfully delineated areas of high to low vulnerability to selected pesticides. The leaching potential was high for picloram, medium for simazine, and low to negligible for 2,4-D and glyphosate. The mass loadings of picloram moving below 0.5 m depth increased greatly in northwestern and central US that recorded its extensive use in agricultural crops. However, in addition to the amount of pesticide used, annual leaching load of atrazine was also affected by other factors that determined the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability such as soil and recharge properties. Spatial and temporal resolutions of digital maps had a great effect on the leaching potential of pesticides, requiring a trade-off between data availability and accuracy. Potential applications of this tool include the rapid, large-scale vulnerability assessments for emerging contaminants which are hard to quantify directly through vadose zone models due to lack of full environmental data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Mapped Chebyshev Pseudo-Spectral Method for Dynamic Aero-Elastic Problem of Limit Cycle Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Dong Kyun; Kim, Hyun Soon; Choi, Seongim

    2018-05-01

    A mapped Chebyshev pseudo-spectral method is developed as one of the Fourier-spectral approaches and solves nonlinear PDE systems for unsteady flows and dynamic aero-elastic problem in a given time interval, where the flows or elastic motions can be periodic, nonperiodic, or periodic with an unknown frequency. The method uses the Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind for the basis function and redistributes the standard Chebyshev-Gauss-Lobatto collocation points more evenly by a conformal mapping function for improved numerical stability. Contributions of the method are several. It can be an order of magnitude more efficient than the conventional finite difference-based, time-accurate computation, depending on the complexity of solutions and the number of collocation points. The method reformulates the dynamic aero-elastic problem in spectral form for coupled analysis of aerodynamics and structures, which can be effective for design optimization of unsteady and dynamic problems. A limit cycle oscillation (LCO) is chosen for the validation and a new method to determine the LCO frequency is introduced based on the minimization of a second derivative of the aero-elastic formulation. Two examples of the limit cycle oscillation are tested: nonlinear, one degree-of-freedom mass-spring-damper system and two degrees-of-freedom oscillating airfoil under pitch and plunge motions. Results show good agreements with those of the conventional time-accurate simulations and wind tunnel experiments.

  13. Concepts and theoretical specifications of a Coastal Vulnerability Dynamic Simulator (COVUDS): A multi-agent system for simulating coastal vulnerability towards management of coastal ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orencio, P. M.; Endo, A.; Taniguchi, M.

    2014-12-01

    Disaster-causing natural hazards such as floods, erosions, earthquakes or slope failures were particularly observed to be concentrated in certain geographical regions. In the Asia-pacific region, coastal ecosystems were suffering because of perennial threats driven by chronic fluctuations in climate variability (e.g., typhoons, ENSO), or by dynamically occurring events (e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis). Among the many people that were found prone to such a risky condition were the ones inhabiting near the coastal areas. Characteristically, aside from being located at the forefront of these events, the coastal communities have impacted the resource by the kind of behavioral patterns they exhibited, such as overdependence and overexploitation to achieve their wellbeing. In this paper, we introduce the development of an approach to an assessment of the coupled human- environment using a multi- agent simulation (MAS) model known as Coastal Vulnerability Dynamic Simulator (COVUDS). The COVUDS comprised a human- environmental platform consisting multi- agents with corresponding spatial- based dynamic and static variables. These variables were used to present multiple hypothetical future situations that contribute to the purpose of supporting a more rational management of the coastal ecosystem and their environmental equities. Initially, we present the theoretical and conceptual components that would lead to the development of the COVUDS. These consisted of the human population engaged in behavioral patterns affecting the conditions of coastal ecosystem services; the system of the biophysical environment and changes in patches brought by global environment and local behavioral variations; the policy factors that were important for choosing area- specific interventions; and the decision- making mechanism that integrates the first three components. To guide a future scenario-based application that will be undertaken in a coastal area in the Philippines, the components of the

  14. 365 MAPPING MALARIA CASE EVENT AND FACTORS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Key words: Malaria case event; prevention; vulnerability; GIS; Nigeria. Introduction. The mapping of ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management Vol. 6 No.4 2013 ... review articles Tanser et al., (2000), indicate that. Satellite ...

  15. Assessing Vulnerability to Heat: A Geospatial Analysis for the City of Philadelphia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Barron

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban heat island (UHI effect is an increasingly prominent health and environmental hazard that is linked to urbanization and climate change. Greening reduces the negative impacts of UHI; trees specifically are the most effective in ambient temperature reduction. This paper investigates vulnerability to heat in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and identifies where street trees can be planted as a public intervention. We used geospatial information systems (GIS software to map a validated Heat Vulnerability Index to identify vulnerability at the block level. Using a high-low geospatial cluster analysis, we assessed where the City of Philadelphia can most effectively plant street trees to address UHI. This information was then aggregated to the neighborhood level for more effective citizen communication and policymaking. We identified that 26 of 48 (54% neighborhoods that were vulnerable to heat also lacked street trees. Of 158 Philadelphia neighborhoods, 63 (40% contained block groups of high vulnerability to either heat or street tree infrastructure. Neighborhoods that were ranked highest in both classifications were identified in two adjacent West Philadelphia neighborhoods. Planting street trees is a public service a city can potentially reduce the negative health impacts of UHI. GIS can be used to identify and recommend street tree plantings to reduce urban heat.

  16. Non-Markovianity Measure Based on Brukner-Zeilinger Invariant Information for Unital Quantum Dynamical Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhi; Zhu, Lie-Qiang; Li, Li

    2017-03-01

    A non-Markovianity measure based on Brukner-Zeilinger invariant information to characterize non-Markovian effect of open systems undergoing unital dynamical maps is proposed. The method takes advantage of non-increasing property of the Brukner-Zeilinger invariant information under completely positive and trace-preserving unital maps. The simplicity of computing the Brukner-Zeilinger invariant information is the advantage of the proposed measure because of mainly depending on the purity of quantum state. The measure effectively captures the characteristics of non-Markovianity of unital dynamical maps. As some concrete application, we consider two typical non-Markovian noise channels, i.e., the phase damping channel and the random unitary channel to show the sensitivity of the proposed measure. By investigation, we find that the conditions of detecting the non-Markovianity for the phase damping channel are consistent with the results of existing measures for non-Markovianity, i.e., information flow, divisibility and quantum mutual information. However, for the random unitary channel non-Markovian conditions are same to that of the information flow, but is different from that of the divisibility and quantum mutual information. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61505053, the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province under Grant No. 2015JJ3092, the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province, China under Grant No. 16B177, the School Foundation from the Hunan University of Arts and Science under Grant No. 14ZD01

  17. Geoenvironments from the vicinity of Arctowski Station, Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica: vulnerability and valuation assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Carlos Ernesto G.R.; Santana, Rogério Mercandelle; Simas, Felipe Nogueira Bello; Francelino, Márcio R.; Filho, Elpídio Inácio Fernandes; Albuquerque, Miriam Abreu; Calijuri, Maria Lúcia

    2007-01-01

    The use of a geographic information system (GIS) allows the mapping and quantification of biotic and physical features of importance to the environmental planning of Antarctic areas. In this paper we examined the main aspects of the geoenvironments of Arctowski Station vicinity (Admiralty bay, Maritime Antartica), by means of a photointerpretation of an orthomosaic at 1:6000 scale, produced by non-conventional aerial photographs obtained by the Brazilian Cryosols project. We carried out a preliminary environmental valuation and vulnerability assessment of the area. Hence, geoenvironments were classified and ranked according with their biological valuation and vulnerability (fragility), mapping 20 units covering approximately 150 ha. The most fragile geoenvironmental units were former and present penguin rookeries with different vegetation covers, all very prone to degradation by over-trampling and human perturbations. The relationships between each geoenvironment were also explored, emphasizing the ecological aspects and their valuation. In quantitative terms, the most vulnerable and fragile units (classes 4 and 5) occupy nearly 22 % of the total area, being highly concentrated near the coastal areas. There, ornithogenic input is an important factor favoring the vegetation development.

  18. The structure of mode-locking regions of piecewise-linear continuous maps: II. Skew sawtooth maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, D. J. W.

    2018-05-01

    In two-parameter bifurcation diagrams of piecewise-linear continuous maps on , mode-locking regions typically have points of zero width known as shrinking points. Near any shrinking point, but outside the associated mode-locking region, a significant proportion of parameter space can be usefully partitioned into a two-dimensional array of annular sectors. The purpose of this paper is to show that in these sectors the dynamics is well-approximated by a three-parameter family of skew sawtooth circle maps, where the relationship between the skew sawtooth maps and the N-dimensional map is fixed within each sector. The skew sawtooth maps are continuous, degree-one, and piecewise-linear, with two different slopes. They approximate the stable dynamics of the N-dimensional map with an error that goes to zero with the distance from the shrinking point. The results explain the complicated radial pattern of periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic dynamics that occurs near shrinking points.

  19. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel C; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten K; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip J

    2015-05-05

    The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

  20. Real and complex dynamics of a family of birational maps of the plane: the golden mean subshift

    OpenAIRE

    Bedford, Eric; Diller, Jeffrey

    2003-01-01

    We give a detailed description of the dynamics of a family of birational mappings of the plane. The organizing theme of our analysis is that this family is essentially conjugate to the golden mean subshift.

  1. Assessment of dynamic probabilistic methods for mapping snow cover in Québec Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Seve, D.; Perreault, L.; Vachon, F.; Guay, F.; choquette, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Hydro-Quebec is the leader in electricity production in North America and uses hydraulic resources to generate 97% of its overall production where snow represents 30% of its annual energy reserve. Information on snow cover extent (SC) and snow water equivalent (SWE) is crucial for hydrological forecasting, particularly in Nordic regions where a majority of total precipitations falls as snow. Accurate estimation of the spatial distribution of snow cover variables is required to measure the extent of this resource but snow surveys are expensive due to inaccessibility factors and to the large extent nature of the Quebec geography. Consequently, the follow-up of snowmelt is particularly challenging for operational forecasting resulting in the need to develop a new approach to assist forecasters. For improved understanding of the dynamics of snow melting over watersheds and to generate optimized power production, Hydro-Québec's Research Institute (IREQ) has developed expertise in in-situ, remote sensing monitoring and statistical treatment of such data. The main goal of this Hydro-Quebec project is to develop an automatic and dynamic snow mapping system providing a daily snow map by merging remote sensing (AVHRR and SSMI) and in situ data. This paper focuses on the work accomplished on passive microwave SSM/I data to follow up snow cover. In our problematic, it is highly useful to classify snow, more specifically during the snowmelt period. The challenge is to be able to discriminate ground from wet snow as it will react as a black body, therefore, adding noise to global brightness temperature. Two dynamic snow classifiers were developed and tested. For this purpose, channels at 19 and 37 GHz in vertical polarization have been used to feed each model. SWE values from gamma ray in situ stations (GMON) and data snow depth from ultrasonic sensor (SR50) were used to validate the output models. The first algorithm is based on a standard K-mean clustering approach, combined

  2. Exploring the Dynamics of Globalization: Supply Chain Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalafsky, Ronald V.; Conner, Neil

    2015-01-01

    Global supply chains play an increasingly important role in the economy and should therefore be addressed within geography coursework, especially given concerns that geographers have not fully explored various angles of globalization. This article explores the use of an online case study on supply chains and their vulnerability to natural…

  3. Assessment of prey vulnerability through analysis of wolf movements and kill sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Eric J; Garrott, Robert A; Creel, Scott; Borkowski, John J; Jaffe, Rosemary; Watson, E G R

    2006-02-01

    Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.

  4. Data Sprints: A Collaborative Format in Digital Controversy Mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Anders Kristian; Tommaso, Venturini; Meunier, Axel

    2017-01-01

    driven by a desire to provide navigational aids to actors faced with the challenge of making sense of complicated techno-scientific problems. Natively digital media technologies have thus been re-appropriated by STS researchers specifically for the purpose of mapping controversies in a way that would...... experiences with various forms of public engagement and participation. Through a concrete reappropriation of a collaborative format that is indeed native to the digital domain - namely the hackathon - we will show how digital methods can make a difference in participatory STS research. The data sprint, as we...... in amsterdam. Through a mix of digital methods ranging from web cartography and text mining to scientometrics and social media analysis we took on questions related to climate adaptation funding, vulnerability assessment, project management, and dynamics of the international negotiations. The sprints hardwired...

  5. Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs: A Case Study from Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodeano Roslee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available DOI: 10.17014/ijog.4.1.49-59The topic on Landslide Vulnerability Assessment (LVAs in Malaysia is relatively new and received little attention from geoscientists and engineers. This research paper tries to formulate the concept of LVAs by taking into account the science and socio-economic aspects. A new approach in vulnerability concept is also introduced herein. To achieve this goal, a framework was designed for assessing the LVAs. The framework was formulated semiquantitatively through the development of database for the risk elements (human and properties based on information from secondary data (technical reports, extensive review of literature, and field observations. The vulnerability parameters included in assessing LVAs are 1 physical implication (building structures, internal materials, property damage, infrastructural facilities, and stabilization actions, 2 social status (injury, fatalities, safety, loss of accommodation, and public awareness, and 3 interference on environment (affected period, daily operation, and diversity. Each considered parameter in the vulnerability assessment is allocated with a certain index value ranges from 0 (0 % damage/victims/period, 0.25 (1 - 25% damage/victims/period, 0.50 (26 - 50% damage/victims/period, 0.75 (51 - 75% damage/victims/period, and 1.00 (75 - 100% damage/victims/period. All of these parameters are compiled and analyzed with “Landslide Distribution Map” (LDM to generate a “Landslide Vulnerability Degree map (LVD”. The LDM was produced based on field studies and satellite image interpretations in order to locate the landslide locations in the studied area. Finally, three types of physical, human, and environment vulnerabilities were then classified into five classes of vulnerabilities, namely: Class 1 (< 0.20: Very Low Vulnerability; Class 2 (0.21 - 0.40: Low Vulnerability; Class 3 (0.41 - 0.60: Medium Vulnerability; Class 4 (0.61 - 0.80: High Vulnerability; and Class 5 (> 0.81: Very

  6. Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

    2012-06-01

    This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

  7. Dynamic Analysis of the Carotid-Kundalini Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xingyuan; Liang, Qingyong; Meng, Juan

    The nature of the fixed points of the Carotid-Kundalini (C-K) map was studied and the boundary equation of the first bifurcation of the C-K map in the parameter plane is presented. Using the quantitative criterion and rule of chaotic system, the paper reveals the general features of the C-K Map transforming from regularity to chaos. The following conclusions are obtained: (i) chaotic patterns of the C-K map may emerge out of double-periodic bifurcation; (ii) the chaotic crisis phenomena are found. At the same time, the authors analyzed the orbit of critical point of the complex C-K Map and put forward the definition of Mandelbrot-Julia set of the complex C-K Map. The authors generalized the Welstead and Cromer's periodic scanning technique and using this technology constructed a series of the Mandelbrot-Julia sets of the complex C-K Map. Based on the experimental mathematics method of combining the theory of analytic function of one complex variable with computer aided drawing, we investigated the symmetry of the Mandelbrot-Julia set and studied the topological inflexibility of distribution of the periodic region in the Mandelbrot set, and found that the Mandelbrot set contains abundant information of the structure of Julia sets by finding the whole portray of Julia sets based on Mandelbrot set qualitatively.

  8. Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adger, W.N.; Kelly, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neoclassical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global

  9. VULNERABILITY OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARMEAN ANDREEA

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In present, the study of vulnerability of companies is increasing in every field due to the unstable economic environment influences. The object of this research is to define and identify vulnerabilities of companies and the establishment of evaluation methods at their level. This article emphasizes the importance and usefulness of one of the best known model in this way, from our point of view, namely Băileşteanu, Negrila Pattern. This pattern covers both external factors and internal ones, that increase vulnerabilities of companies, and fit the companies in which the state of vulnerability are (vitality, viability, vulnerability, high vulnerability, difficulty and high difficulty, with a matrix. The result of the research is that any company belonging to any field, can be analyzed using this model, and assigned to one of the conditions defined within.

  10. Focusing Conservation Efforts on Ecosystem Service Supply May Increase Vulnerability of Socio-Ecological Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Laterra

    Full Text Available Growing concern about the loss of ecosystem services (ES promotes their spatial representation as a key tool for the internalization of the ES framework into land use policies. Paradoxically, mapping approaches meant to inform policy decisions focus on the magnitude and spatial distribution of the biophysical supply of ES, largely ignoring the social mechanisms by which these services influence human wellbeing. If social mechanisms affecting ES demand, enhancing it or reducing it, are taken more into account, then policies are more effective. By developing and applying a new mapping routine to two distinct socio-ecological systems, we show a strong spatial uncoupling between ES supply and socio-ecological vulnerability to the loss of ES, under scenarios of land use and cover change. Public policies based on ES supply might not only fail at detecting priority conservation areas for the wellbeing of human societies, but may also increase their vulnerability by neglecting areas of currently low, but highly valued ES supply.

  11. Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the aquifer in the Rižana spring chatcment by method SINTACS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper is presented intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the aquifer in the Rižana spring chatcment by the method SINTACS. It is parametric method that takes into consideration seven parameters (depth to ground water, effective infiltration action, unsaturatedzone attenuation capacity, soil/overburden attenuation capacity, hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, hydraulic conductivity range of aquifer, hydrologic role of the topographic slope. Parameters are presented in grid information layers that wereelaborated on the basis of interpretation and GIS processing of geological, hydrogeological,speleological, topographical, meteorological and pedological data. According to the parametersimportance for vulnerability assessment, a multiplier (importance weight was assigned to each parameter. Final map of vulnerability is a result of overlaying (summing of weighted information layers (parameters and shows the catchment area of the Rižanaspring subdivided into six vulnerability classes.

  12. Madagascar’s Mangroves: Quantifying Nation-Wide and Ecosystem Specific Dynamics, and Detailed Contemporary Mapping of Distinct Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor G. Jones

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove ecosystems help mitigate climate change, are highly biodiverse, and provide critical goods and services to coastal communities. Despite their importance, anthropogenic activities are rapidly degrading and deforesting mangroves world-wide. Madagascar contains 2% of the world’s mangroves, many of which have undergone or are starting to exhibit signs of widespread degradation and deforestation. Remotely sensed data can be used to quantify mangrove loss and characterize remaining distributions, providing detailed, accurate, timely and updateable information. We use USGS maps produced from Landsat data to calculate nation-wide dynamics for Madagascar’s mangroves from 1990 to 2010, and examine change more closely by partitioning the national distribution in to primary (i.e., >1000 ha ecosystems; with focus on four Areas of Interest (AOIs: Ambaro-Ambanja Bays (AAB, Mahajamba Bay (MHJ, Tsiribihina Manombolo Delta (TMD and Bay des Assassins (BdA. Results indicate a nation–wide net-loss of 21% (i.e., 57,359 ha from 1990 to 2010, with dynamics varying considerably among primary mangrove ecosystems. Given the limitations of national-level maps for certain localized applications (e.g., carbon stock inventories, building on two previous studies for AAB and MHJ, we employ Landsat data to produce detailed, contemporary mangrove maps for TMD and BdA. These contemporary, AOI-specific maps provide improved detail and accuracy over the USGS national-level maps, and are being applied to conservation and restoration initiatives through the Blue Ventures’ Blue Forests programme and WWF Madagascar West Indian Ocean Programme Office’s work in the region.

  13. Participatory Maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salovaara-Moring, Inka

    2016-01-01

    practice. In particular, mapping environmental damage, endangered species, and human-made disasters has become one focal point for environmental knowledge production. This type of digital map has been highlighted as a processual turn in critical cartography, whereas in related computational journalism...... of a geo-visualization within information mapping that enhances embodiment in the experience of the information. InfoAmazonia is defined as a digitally created map-space within which journalistic practice can be seen as dynamic, performative interactions between journalists, ecosystems, space, and species...

  14. Coastal dynamics studies for evaluation of hazard and vulnerability for coastal erosion. case study the town La Bocana, Buenaventura, colombian pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza

    2015-04-01

    The analysis of the hazard and vulnerability in coastal areas caused for erosion is based on studies of coastal dynamics since that allows having a better information detail that is useful for decision-making in aspects like prevention, mitigation, disaster reduction and integrated risk management. The Town of La Bocana, located in Buenaventura (Colombian Pacific) was selected to carry out the threat assessment for coastal erosion based on three components: i) magnitude, ii) occurrence and iii) susceptibility. Vulnerability meanwhile, is also composed of three main components for its evaluation: i) exposure ii) fragility and iii) resilience, which in turn are evaluated in 6 dimensions of vulnerability: physical, social, economic, ecological, institutional and cultural. The hazard analysis performed used a semi-quantitative approach, and an index of variables such as type of geomorphological unit, type of beach, exposure of the surfing coast, occurrence, among others. Quantitative data of coastal retreat was measured through the use of DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) an application of ArcGIS, as well as the development of digital elevation models from the beach and 6 beach profiles strategically located on the coast obtained with GNSS technology. Sediment samples collected from these beaches, medium height and wave direction were used as complementary data. The information was integrated across the coast line into segments of 250 x 250 meters. 4 sectors are part of the coastal area of La Bocana: Pianguita, Vistahermosa, Donwtown and Shangay. 6 vulnerability dimensions units were taken from these population, as well as its density for exposure, wich was analyzed through a multi-array method that include variables such as, land use, population, type of structure, education, basic services, among others, to measure frailty, and their respective indicator of resilience. The hazard analysis results indicate that Vistahermosa is in very high threat, while

  15. Methamphetamine use and dependence in vulnerable female populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittirattanapaiboon, Phunnapa; Srikosai, Soontaree; Wittayanookulluk, Apisak

    2017-07-01

    The study reviews recent publications on methamphetamine use and dependence women in term of their epidemic, physical health impact, psychosocial impacts, and also in the identified vulnerable issues. Studies of vulnerable populations of women are wide ranging and include sex workers, sexual minorities, homeless, psychiatric patients, suburban women, and pregnant women, in which amphetamine type stimulants (ATSs) are the most commonly reported illicit drug used among them. The prenatal exposure of ATS demonstrated the small for gestational age and low birth weight; however, more research is needed on long-term studies of methamphetamine-exposed children. Intimate partner violence (IPV) is commonly reported by female methamphetamine users as perpetrators and victims. However, statistics and gendered power dynamics suggest that methamphetamine-related IPV indicates a higher chance of femicide. Methamphetamine-abusing women often have unresolved childhood trauma and are introduced to ATS through families or partners. Vulnerable populations of women at risk of methamphetamine abuse and dependence. Impacts on their physical and mental health, IPV, and pregnancy have been reported continuing, which guide that empowering and holistic substance abuse are necessary for specific group.

  16. Mapping the structural and dynamical features of multiple p53 DNA binding domains: insights into loop 1 intrinsic dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryani Lukman

    Full Text Available The transcription factor p53 regulates cellular integrity in response to stress. p53 is mutated in more than half of cancerous cells, with a majority of the mutations localized to the DNA binding domain (DBD. In order to map the structural and dynamical features of the DBD, we carried out multiple copy molecular dynamics simulations (totaling 0.8 μs. Simulations show the loop 1 to be the most dynamic element among the DNA-contacting loops (loops 1-3. Loop 1 occupies two major conformational states: extended and recessed; the former but not the latter displays correlations in atomic fluctuations with those of loop 2 (~24 Å apart. Since loop 1 binds to the major groove whereas loop 2 binds to the minor groove of DNA, our results begin to provide some insight into the possible mechanism underpinning the cooperative nature of DBD binding to DNA. We propose (1 a novel mechanism underlying the dynamics of loop 1 and the possible tread-milling of p53 on DNA and (2 possible mutations on loop 1 residues to restore the transcriptional activity of an oncogenic mutation at a distant site.

  17. Lake eutrophication and environmental change: A viability framework for resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Jean-Denis; Rougé, Charles; Deffuant, Guillaume

    2013-04-01

    We present a simple stochastic model of lake eutrophication to demonstrate how the mathematical framework of viability theory fosters operational definitions of resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and then helps understand which response one should bring to environmental changes. The model represents the phosphorus dynamics, given that high concentrations trigger a regime change from oligotrophic to eutrophic, and causes ecological but also economic losses, for instance from tourism. Phosphorus comes from agricultural inputs upstream of the lake, and we will consider a stochastic input. We consider the system made of both the lake and its upstream region, and explore how to maintain the desirable ecological and economic properties of this system. In the viability framework, we translate these desirable properties into state constraints, then examine how, given the dynamics of the model and the available policy options, the properties can be kept. The set of states for which there exists a policy to keep the properties is called the viability kernel. We extend this framework to both major perturbations and long-term environmental changes. In our model, since the phosphorus inputs and outputs from the lake depend on rainfall, we will focus on extreme rainfall events and long-term changes in the rainfall regime. They can be described as changes in the state of the system, and may displace it outside the viability kernel. Its response can then be described using the concepts of resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Resilience is the capacity to recover by getting back to the viability kernel where the dynamics keep the system safe, and in this work we assume it to be the first objective of management. Computed for a given trajectory, vulnerability is a measure of the consequence of violating a property. We propose a family of functions from which cost functions and other vulnerability indicators can be derived for any trajectory. There can be

  18. An adaptive scheme for robot localization and mapping with dynamically configurable inter-beacon range measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-González, Arturo; Martinez-de Dios, Jose Ramiro; Ollero, Anibal

    2014-04-25

    This work is motivated by robot-sensor network cooperation techniques where sensor nodes (beacons) are used as landmarks for range-only (RO) simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). This paper presents a RO-SLAM scheme that actuates over the measurement gathering process using mechanisms that dynamically modify the rate and variety of measurements that are integrated in the SLAM filter. It includes a measurement gathering module that can be configured to collect direct robot-beacon and inter-beacon measurements with different inter-beacon depth levels and at different rates. It also includes a supervision module that monitors the SLAM performance and dynamically selects the measurement gathering configuration balancing SLAM accuracy and resource consumption. The proposed scheme has been applied to an extended Kalman filter SLAM with auxiliary particle filters for beacon initialization (PF-EKF SLAM) and validated with experiments performed in the CONET Integrated Testbed. It achieved lower map and robot errors (34% and 14%, respectively) than traditional methods with a lower computational burden (16%) and similar beacon energy consumption.

  19. Spectrally based bathymetric mapping of a dynamic, sand‐bedded channel: Niobrara River, Nebraska, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilbone, Elizabeth; Legleiter, Carl; Alexander, Jason S.; McElroy, Brandon

    2018-01-01

    Methods for spectrally based mapping of river bathymetry have been developed and tested in clear‐flowing, gravel‐bed channels, with limited application to turbid, sand‐bed rivers. This study used hyperspectral images and field surveys from the dynamic, sandy Niobrara River to evaluate three depth retrieval methods. The first regression‐based approach, optimal band ratio analysis (OBRA), paired in situ depth measurements with image pixel values to estimate depth. The second approach used ground‐based field spectra to calibrate an OBRA relationship. The third technique, image‐to‐depth quantile transformation (IDQT), estimated depth by linking the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of depth to the CDF of an image‐derived variable. OBRA yielded the lowest depth retrieval mean error (0.005 m) and highest observed versus predicted R2 (0.817). Although misalignment between field and image data did not compromise the performance of OBRA in this study, poor georeferencing could limit regression‐based approaches such as OBRA in dynamic, sand‐bedded rivers. Field spectroscopy‐based depth maps exhibited a mean error with a slight shallow bias (0.068 m) but provided reliable estimates for most of the study reach. IDQT had a strong deep bias but provided informative relative depth maps. Overprediction of depth by IDQT highlights the need for an unbiased sampling strategy to define the depth CDF. Although each of the techniques we tested demonstrated potential to provide accurate depth estimates in sand‐bed rivers, each method also was subject to certain constraints and limitations.

  20. Microtremor survey to investigate seismic vulnerability around the Seulimum Fault, Aceh Besar-Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanjuntak, Andrean V. H.; Muksin, Umar; Rahmayani, Febrina

    2018-05-01

    The Seulimeum Fault has generated inland earthquake with magnitude larger than M 6.5 that destroyed houses in the Lamteuba and Krueng Raya Villages. Earthquakes along the Seulimeum Fault are mostly right lateral strike-slip characterizing the Fault. The understanding of the seismic vulnerability around the highly populated Banda Aceh City and the villages in Aceh Besar is therefore very important since the city, and the villages are very close to the Seulimeum Fault. A microtremor survey has been conducted to investigate seismic vulnerability in the area closed to the Seulimeum Fault. The waveforms of the microtremor have been recorded in Lamteuba and Kreung Raya villages, Aceh Besar at 20 sites for 7 days from August 14, 2017 with the interval of measurement of 1 km. The waveforms recorded for 30 minutes at each site by using one Taurus Seismometer in miniseed format. The data has been analyzing by using Geopsy to obtain the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio for each site. The seismic vulnerability is considered to be high if the value of the Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratio is high. The HVSR values are then interpolated to obtain the seismic vulnerability map. The preliminary result shows high seismic vulnerability in the area around the first site.

  1. Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Atillah

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011, focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

  2. GIS Fuzzy Expert System for the assessment of ecosystems vulnerability to fire in managing Mediterranean natural protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeraro, Teodoro; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Aretano, Roberta; Facchinetti, Gisella; Zurlini, Giovanni; Petrosillo, Irene

    2016-03-01

    A significant threat to the natural and cultural heritage of Mediterranean natural protected areas (NPAs) is related to uncontrolled fires that can cause potential damages related to the loss or a reduction of ecosystems. The assessment and mapping of the vulnerability to fire can be useful to reduce landscape damages and to establish priority areas where it is necessary to plan measures to reduce the fire vulnerability. To this aim, a methodology based on an interactive computer-based system has been proposed in order to support NPA's management authority for the identification of vulnerable hotspots to fire through the selection of suitable indicators that allow discriminating different levels of sensitivity (e.g. Habitat relevance, Fragmentation, Fire behavior, Ecosystem Services, Vegetation recovery after fire) and stresses (agriculture, tourism, urbanization). In particular, a multi-criteria analysis based on Fuzzy Expert System (FES) integrated in a GIS environment has been developed in order to identify and map potential "hotspots" of fire vulnerability, where fire protection measures can be undertaken in advance. In order to test the effectiveness of this approach, this approach has been applied to the NPA of Torre Guaceto (Apulia Region, southern Italy). The most fire vulnerable areas are the patch of century-old forest characterized by high sensitivity and stress, and the wetlands and century-old olive groves due to their high sensitivity. The GIS fuzzy expert system provides evidence of its potential usefulness for the effective management of natural protected areas and can help conservation managers to plan and intervene in order to mitigate the fire vulnerability in accordance with conservation goals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

  4. Dynamic mapping of EDDL device descriptions to OPC UA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atta Nsiah, Kofi; Schappacher, Manuel; Sikora, Axel

    2017-07-01

    OPC UA (Open Platform Communications Unified Architecture) is already a well-known concept used widely in the automation industry. In the area of factory automation, OPC UA models the underlying field devices such as sensors and actuators in an OPC UA server to allow connecting OPC UA clients to access device-specific information via a standardized information model. One of the requirements of the OPC UA server to represent field device data using its information model is to have advanced knowledge about the properties of the field devices in the form of device descriptions. The international standard IEC 61804 specifies EDDL (Electronic Device Description Language) as a generic language for describing the properties of field devices. In this paper, the authors describe a possibility to dynamically map and integrate field device descriptions based on EDDL into OPCUA.

  5. Spatiotemporal chaos in coupled logistic maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varella Guedes, Andre; Amorim Savi, Marcelo

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this work is to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of coupled logistic maps. These maps are prototypes of high-dimensional dynamical systems and have been used to describe the evolution and pattern formation in different systems. Here, the logistic map lattice is coupled by a power law and, therefore, each map is influenced by other maps in its neighborhood. The Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy density is employed to quantify the complexity of system behavior, permitting a general qualitative understanding of different aspects of system dynamics. Three kinds of boundary conditions are treated and the influence of initial conditions is also of concern. Non-homogeneous maps are investigated, showing interesting aspects of spatiotemporal dynamics. The idea is to analyze the spatial interaction between two qualitative different types of behavior from a grid that is split into two parts. Numerical simulations show what types of conditions present a greater tendency to develop chaotic, periodic and synchronized responses. It should be highlighted that non-homogeneous grids have situations where a chaotic pattern can emerge from two periodic responses and also situations where a periodic pattern can emerge from chaos.

  6. Reflecting on the efficacy of cognitive mapping for decision-making in intellectual disability care: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duryan, Meri; Nikolik, Dragan; van Merode, Godefridus; Curfs, Leopold M G

    2015-01-01

    The central aspect of this study is a set of reflections on the efficacy of soft operational research techniques in understanding the dynamics of a complex system such as intellectual disability (ID) care providers. Organizations providing services to ID patients are complex and have many interacting stakeholders with often different and competing interests. Understanding the causes for failures in complex systems is crucial for appreciating the multiple perspectives of the key stakeholders of the system. Knowing the factors that adversely affect delivery of a patient-centred care by ID provider organizations offers the potential for identifying more effective resource-allocation solutions. The authors suggest cognitive mapping as a starting point for system dynamics modelling of optimal resource-allocation projects in ID care. The application of the method is illustrated via a case study in one of the ID care providers in the Netherlands. The paper discusses some of the practical implications of applying problem-structuring methods that support gathering feedback from vulnerable service users and front-line workers. The authors concluded that cognitive mapping technique can assist the management of healthcare organizations in strategic decision-making. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. A review of monopolar motor mapping and a comprehensive guide to continuous dynamic motor mapping for resection of motor eloquent brain tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schucht, P; Seidel, K; Jilch, A; Beck, J; Raabe, A

    2017-06-01

    Monopolar mapping of motor function differs from the most commonly used method of intraoperative mapping, i.e. bipolar direct electrical stimulation at 50-60Hz (Penfield technique mapping). Most importantly, the monopolar probe emits a radial, homogenous electrical field different to the more focused inter-tip bipolar electrical field. Most users combine monopolar stimulation with the short train technique, also called high frequency stimulation, or train-of-five techniques. It consists of trains of four to nine monopolar rectangular electrical pulses of 200-500μs pulse length with an inter stimulus interval of 2-4msec. High frequency short train stimulation triggers a time-locked motor-evoked potential response, which has a defined latency and an easily quantifiable amplitude. In this way, motor thresholds might be used to evaluate a current-to-distance relation. The homogeneous electrical field and the current-to-distance approximation provide the surgeon with an estimate of the remaining distance to the corticospinal tract, enabling the surgeon to adjust the speed of resection as the corticospinal tract is approached. Furthermore, this stimulation paradigm is associated with a lower incidence of intraoperative seizures, allowing continuous stimulation. Hence, monopolar mapping is increasingly used as part of a strategy of continuous dynamic mapping: ergonomically integrated into the surgeon's tools, the monopolar probe reliably provides continuous/uninterrupted feedback on motor function. As part of this strategy, motor mapping is not any longer a time consuming interruption of resection but rather a radar-like, real-time information system on the spatial relationship of the current resection site to eloquent motor structures. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  8. VEGETATION MAPPING IN WETLANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. PEDROTTI

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The current work examines the main aspects of wetland vegetation mapping, which can be summarized as analysis of the ecological-vegetational (ecotone gradients; vegetation complexes; relationships between vegetation distribution and geomorphology; vegetation of the hydrographic basin lo which the wetland in question belongs; vegetation monitoring with help of four vegetation maps: phytosociological map of the real and potential vegetation, map of vegetation dynamical tendencies, map of vegetation series.

  9. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  10. Accounting for Landscape Heterogeneity Improves Spatial Predictions of Tree Vulnerability to Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwantes, A. M.; Parolari, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.; Pelak, N. F., III; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Globally, as climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability differs regionally and locally depending on landscape position. However, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heatwaves and droughts do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. To improve predictions of spatial tree vulnerability, we employed a non-linear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics across a landscape, accounting for spatial differences in aspect, topography, and soils. Our unique approach integrated plant hydraulics and landscape processes, incorporating effects from lateral redistribution of water using a topographic index and radiation and temperature differences attributable to aspect. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei. We compared our results to a detailed spatial dataset of drought-impacted areas (>25% canopy loss) derived from remote sensing during the severe 2011 drought. We then projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century using climate projections from 10 global climate models under two scenarios, and compared models with and without landscape heterogeneity. Within this watershed, 42% of J. ashei dominated systems were impacted by the 2011 drought. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked these spatial patterns of observed drought-impacted areas. Total accuracy increased from 59%, when accounting only for soil variability, to 73% when including lateral redistribution of water and radiation and temperature effects. Dynamic water stress was projected to increase through the 21st century, with only minimal buffering from the landscape. During the hotter and more severe droughts projected in the 21st century, up to 90% of the watershed crossed a dynamic water stress threshold associated with canopy loss in 2011. Favorable microsites may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are

  11. Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

    2015-04-01

    scores are then mapped for spatial analysis. Utilizing SeVI and InVI, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated that are likely to face significant challenges in coping with tropical cyclone and require strategies to address the various aspects of socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability. Moreover, this model can be incorporated not only for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

  12. USGS Imagery Topo Large-scale Base Map Service from The National Map

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS Imagery Topo Large service from The National Map (TNM) is a dynamic topographic base map service that combines the best available data (Boundaries,...

  13. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  14. Transactional Relationships among Cognitive Vulnerabilities, Stressors, and Depressive Symptoms in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvete, Esther; Orue, Izaskun; Hankin, Benjamin L.

    2013-01-01

    The transactional cognitive vulnerability to stress model Hankin & Abramson ('Psychological Bulletin," 127:773-796, 2001) extends the traditional diathesis-stress model by proposing that the relationships among cognitions, depressive symptoms, and stressors are dynamic and bidirectional. In this study three different pathways among these variables…

  15. Towards a common formalization of resilience and vulnerability to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rougé, Charles; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Deffuant, Guillaume

    2015-04-01

    Resilience and vulnerability are two widely-used concepts when it comes to describe the potential impacts of natural hazards on a social and ecological system. They are an attractive way to communicate both with stakeholders and between the different disciplinary fields that use them in that context. Therefore, a formal definition of the concepts is warranted so as to provide a non-ambiguous reference for discussion and avoid misunderstandings. Besides, such a formalization should strive to formalize both concepts together so as to use their complimentarity. This abstract uses a stochastic controlled dynamical system formulation to propose a common framework for the definition of both resilience and vulnerability. Stochasticity represents all sources of uncertainty post-hazard, and the hazard is assumed to be an exogenous input. This mathematical representation highlights how the interplay between a natural hazard, the system's dynamic and the possible action policies influence the final outcome after the hazard hits. It also clarifies the role of normative choices in defining indicators that may inform or guide the system's management. More importantly, we demonstrate how the proposed framework may serve as a basis to generate indicators that are representative of general definitions of the concepts, yet flexible enough to be easily adapted to very diverse situations. Resilience is the ability for the system to keep or recover its properties of interest after a perturbation, while vulnerability is defined in a most general way as a measure of future harm. The definition of vulnerability leads to a variety of possible indicators, and ultimately to the identification of safe configurations of the system. Being resilient is then the fact of returning to a safe configuration, and the probability of resilience is that of doing so within a pre-defined time frame. Then, indicators may be designed around the probability distribution of return times. We show how viability

  16. A temporal dimension of household vulnerability in three rural communities in Lijiang, China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    We examine the dynamics of household vulnerability during the past 30 years within three different social-ecological upland systems in Lijiang, Yunnan. Interviews were conducted to construct coupled human-environmental timelines to facilitate the understanding of livelihood dynamics in the contex....... Moreover, environmentally destructive practices such as illegal logging might reinforce the negative impacts of climate change and thus undermine sustainable adaptation....

  17. Application of Social Vulnerability Indicators to Climate Change for the Southwest Coastal Areas of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Cheng Wu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the coastal zones of Taiwan not only affects the marine environment, ecology, and human communities whose economies rely heavily on marine activities, but also the sustainable development of national economics. The southwest coast is known as the area most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, this study aims to develop indicators to assess social vulnerability in this area of Taiwan using the three dimensions of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience. The modified Delphi method was used to develop nine criteria and 26 indexes in the evaluation, and the analytic hierarchy process method was employed to evaluate the weight of each indicator based on the perspectives of experts collected through questionnaire surveys. The results provide important information pertaining to the vulnerability of the most susceptive regions, the lowest-resistance areas, and the least resilient townships on the southwest coast. The most socially vulnerable areas are plotted based on the present analysis. Experts can consider the vulnerability map provided here when developing adaptation policies. It should be kept in mind that improving the capacities of resistance and resilience is more important than reducing susceptibility in Taiwan.

  18. Regional hippocampal vulnerability in early multiple sclerosis: Dynamic pathological spreading from dentate gyrus to CA1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planche, Vincent; Koubiyr, Ismail; Romero, José E; Manjon, José V; Coupé, Pierrick; Deloire, Mathilde; Dousset, Vincent; Brochet, Bruno; Ruet, Aurélie; Tourdias, Thomas

    2018-04-01

    Whether hippocampal subfields are differentially vulnerable at the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) and how this impacts memory performance is a current topic of debate. We prospectively included 56 persons with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) suggestive of MS in a 1-year longitudinal study, together with 55 matched healthy controls at baseline. Participants were tested for memory performance and scanned with 3 T MRI to assess the volume of 5 distinct hippocampal subfields using automatic segmentation techniques. At baseline, CA4/dentate gyrus was the only hippocampal subfield with a volume significantly smaller than controls (p < .01). After one year, CA4/dentate gyrus atrophy worsened (-6.4%, p < .0001) and significant CA1 atrophy appeared (both in the stratum-pyramidale and the stratum radiatum-lacunosum-moleculare, -5.6%, p < .001 and -6.2%, p < .01, respectively). CA4/dentate gyrus volume at baseline predicted CA1 volume one year after CIS (R 2  = 0.44 to 0.47, p < .001, with age, T2 lesion-load, and global brain atrophy as covariates). The volume of CA4/dentate gyrus at baseline was associated with MS diagnosis during follow-up, independently of T2-lesion load and demographic variables (p < .05). Whereas CA4/dentate gyrus volume was not correlated with memory scores at baseline, CA1 atrophy was an independent correlate of episodic verbal memory performance one year after CIS (ß = 0.87, p < .05). The hippocampal degenerative process spread from dentate gyrus to CA1 at the earliest stage of MS. This dynamic vulnerability is associated with MS diagnosis after CIS and will ultimately impact hippocampal-dependent memory performance. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Model based on diffuse logic for the construction of indicators of urban vulnerability in natural phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia L, Carlos Eduardo; Hurtado G, Jorge Eduardo

    2003-01-01

    Upon considering the vulnerability of a urban system in a holistic way and taking into account some natural, technological and social factors, a model based upon a system of fuzzy logic, allowing to estimate the vulnerability of any system under natural phenomena potentially catastrophic is proposed. The model incorporates quantitative and qualitative variables in a dynamic system, in which variations in one of them have a positive or negative impact over the rest. An urban system model and an indicator model to determine the vulnerability due to natural phenomena were designed

  20. An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

    2016-04-01

    AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability

  1. Mapping the structural and dynamical features of kinesin motor domains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido Scarabelli

    Full Text Available Kinesin motor proteins drive intracellular transport by coupling ATP hydrolysis to conformational changes that mediate directed movement along microtubules. Characterizing these distinct conformations and their interconversion mechanism is essential to determining an atomic-level model of kinesin action. Here we report a comprehensive principal component analysis of 114 experimental structures along with the results of conventional and accelerated molecular dynamics simulations that together map the structural dynamics of the kinesin motor domain. All experimental structures were found to reside in one of three distinct conformational clusters (ATP-like, ADP-like and Eg5 inhibitor-bound. These groups differ in the orientation of key functional elements, most notably the microtubule binding α4-α5, loop8 subdomain and α2b-β4-β6-β7 motor domain tip. Group membership was found not to correlate with the nature of the bound nucleotide in a given structure. However, groupings were coincident with distinct neck-linker orientations. Accelerated molecular dynamics simulations of ATP, ADP and nucleotide free Eg5 indicate that all three nucleotide states could sample the major crystallographically observed conformations. Differences in the dynamic coupling of distal sites were also evident. In multiple ATP bound simulations, the neck-linker, loop8 and the α4-α5 subdomain display correlated motions that are absent in ADP bound simulations. Further dissection of these couplings provides evidence for a network of dynamic communication between the active site, microtubule-binding interface and neck-linker via loop7 and loop13. Additional simulations indicate that the mutations G325A and G326A in loop13 reduce the flexibility of these regions and disrupt their couplings. Our combined results indicate that the reported ATP and ADP-like conformations of kinesin are intrinsically accessible regardless of nucleotide state and support a model where neck

  2. Vulnerability and livelihoods before and after the Haiti earthquake

    OpenAIRE

    Echevin, Damien

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the dynamics of poverty and vulnerability in Haiti using various data sets. As living conditions survey data are not comparable in this country, we first propose to use the three rounds of the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) available before the earthquake. Decomposing household assets changes into age and cohort effects, we use repeated cross-section data to identify a...

  3. An efficient three-party password-based key agreement protocol using extended chaotic maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shu Jian

    2015-01-01

    Three-party password-based key agreement protocols allow two users to authenticate each other via a public channel and establish a session key with the aid of a trusted server. Recently, Farash et al. [Farash M S, Attari M A 2014 “An efficient and provably secure three-party password-based authenticated key exchange protocol based on Chebyshev chaotic maps”, Nonlinear Dynamics 77(7): 399–411] proposed a three-party key agreement protocol by using the extended chaotic maps. They claimed that their protocol could achieve strong security. In the present paper, we analyze Farash et al.’s protocol and point out that this protocol is vulnerable to off-line password guessing attack and suffers communication burden. To handle the issue, we propose an efficient three-party password-based key agreement protocol using extended chaotic maps, which uses neither symmetric cryptosystems nor the server’s public key. Compared with the relevant schemes, our protocol provides better performance in terms of computation and communication. Therefore, it is suitable for practical applications. (paper)

  4. Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

  5. Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

  6. q-Deformed nonlinear maps

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 64; Issue 3 ... Keywords. Nonlinear dynamics; logistic map; -deformation; Tsallis statistics. ... As a specific example, a -deformation procedure is applied to the logistic map. Compared ...

  7. A Comparative Study on Physical Vulnerability of Urban Area against Natural Hazards: Importance of Health Promoting Approach in Civil Engineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahadnezhad Reveshty, Mohsen; Kamelifar, Mohammad Javad; Ranjbarnia, Behzad; Pashaiifar, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Estimation of urban vulnerability to earthquakes can be consid-ered as an Ill-structured problem in urban in both unplanned and planned areas. Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) provides a way to integrate different spatial data layers in a geographic information system to create composite maps representing risk. We utilized MCE in a raster Geographic Information System (GIS) to evaluate risk in vulnerable tissues of Tabriz, Iran zone. In this MCE physical risk factors and sub-factors were included and were weighted by experts. Afterward data entered to GIS and then the layers of the criteria were exported. The obtained results were entered to IDRISI and fuzzified. Ultimately the final map of physical vulnerability was outputted by overlaying order. Vulnerable tissues are highly consistent to non-official areas. However, the planned area which is called Valiasr is in low risky condition and this condition is desirable in crisis times. Here, we observe the preference of physical pre-planning operations. The links between urban planning and health are many and varied. Environmental, social and economic conditions in cities can have both positive and negative influences on human health and centre. Urban planning and related professions play an important role in shaping those conditions.

  8. A Comparative Study on Physical Vulnerability of Urban Area against Natural Hazards: Importance of Health Promoting Approach in Civil Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Ahadnezhad Reveshty

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Estimation of urban vulnerability to earthquakes can be considered as an Ill-structured problem in urban in both unplanned and planned ar-eas. Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE provides a way to integrate different spatial data layers in a geographic information system to create composite maps representing risk. We utilized MCE in a raster Geographic Information System (GIS to evaluate risk in vulnerable tissues of Tabriz, Iran zone. Methods: In this MCE physical risk factors and sub-factors were included and were weighted by experts. Afterward data entered to GIS and then the layers of the criteria were exported. The obtained results were entered to IDRISI and fuzzified. Ultimately the final map of physical vulnerability was outputted by overlaying order. Results: Vulnerable tissues are highly consistent to non-official areas. How-ever, the planned area which is called Valiasr is in low risky condition and this condition is desirable in crisis times. Here, we observe the preference of physical pre-planning operations. Conclusion: The links between urban planning and health are many and varied. Environmental, social and economic conditions in cities can have both positive and negative influences on human health and centre. Urban planning and related professions play an important role in shaping those conditions.

  9. Coastal vulnerability index for the Tabasco State coast, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Nuñez Gómez

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise is one of the most serious events that will impact low-lying lands, as is the case of most of Tabasco State. Historically, the State of Tabasco has been repeatedly impacted by extreme floods, the most recent one occurring in 2007. However, recent studies have shown that coastal erosion is the effect that most directly has impacted the Tabasco’s coastline, as this has even modified soil strata; this is also related to extreme hydrometeorological events associated with environmental changes and changes in the salinity gradient off the coast. In such a situation, future changes in the coastline are almost certain. Tabasco’s coastline has been recognized as one of the most vulnerable zones in the country since Mexico’s first national communication to the UNFCCC in 1997. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the vulnerability of this zone. The purpose of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of the Tabasco’s coastline by applying the coastal vulnerability index method (IVM using a geographic information system (GIS. This method has been successfully applied in several different places around the world including Canada, the United State, Spain and Indonesia. This model is suitable for the local conditions of Tabasco coast, as the input variables it requires (including waves, tides, sea level, coastal slope, erosion rates and geomorphology are available for the study area, thus allowing the possibility of estimating the coast’s vulnerability based on local data. Results from map algebra operations showed that the zones of very high or high vulnerability encompass a six-kilometer stretch around the Sánchez Magallanes community, near the del Carmen lagoon in the municipality of H. Cárdenas, Tabasco. This is due to the high-waves regime and other conditions associated to the coastal dune geomorphology as well as the unconsolidated fine sediments prevailing therein. Other high vulnerability zones are found just in front

  10. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  11. Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

    2016-12-01

    Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study

  12. Diagnostic usefulness of endorectal magnetic resonance imaging with dynamic contrast-enhancement in patients with localized prostate cancer. Mapping studies with biopsy specimens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Nobumichi; Samma, Shoji; Joko, Masanori; Akiyama, Tatsuya; Takewa, Megumi; Kitano, Satoru; Okajima, Eigoro

    1999-01-01

    New diagnostic criteria for dynamic magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in prostate cancer are presented. The diagnostic usefulness of endorectal MR imaging with dynamic contrast-enhancement in localized prostate cancer and the validity of these criteria were evaluated. Eighteen untreated patients who were suspected of localized prostate cancer were included in the study. They received endorectal dynamic MR imaging before systematic sextant needle biopsy. First, a mapping study with the findings of MR images and histopathology of biopsy specimens was performed in eight patients out of 18 to compare the difference in T2-weighted images with the endorectal coil and the body coil in the same individuals. Second, another mapping study was performed in all 18 patients by analyzing the findings of endorectal dynamic MR images. For the diagnosis of prostate cancer in MR imaging, we offered diagnostic criteria from our experience in addition to those in plain T2-weighted images from the literature. The overall diagnostic rates of endorectal dynamic MR imaging were 88.9% in accuracy, 100% in sensitivity, and 81.8% in specificity. In the comparison of the endorectal and body coils in T2-weighted images in eight patients, there was no difference in the diagnostic rates except for one more histopathologic false positive portion in endorectal MR imaging. In the second mapping study in 18 patients, the diagnostic rates were 92.6% in accuracy, 88.9% in sensitivity and 93.3% in specificity. Endorectal dynamic imaging raised the diagnostic sensitivity from 77.8 to 88.9%. The data demonstrated the validity of this diagnostic criteria and the diagnostic usefulness of endorectal dynamic MR imaging in localized prostate cancer. (author)

  13. Map of CCAA policy links | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The CCAA program supports participatory action research that informs policy processes with science-based evidence on vulnerability and adaptation. This map shows the connections of CCAA projects where there has been sustained interaction with policymaking bodies at the local, national or regional level. Download the ...

  14. Deterministic Diffusion in Delayed Coupled Maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sozanski, M.

    2005-01-01

    Coupled Map Lattices (CML) are discrete time and discrete space dynamical systems used for modeling phenomena arising in nonlinear systems with many degrees of freedom. In this work, the dynamical and statistical properties of a modified version of the CML with global coupling are considered. The main modification of the model is the extension of the coupling over a set of local map states corresponding to different time iterations. The model with both stochastic and chaotic one-dimensional local maps is studied. Deterministic diffusion in the CML under variation of a control parameter is analyzed for unimodal maps. As a main result, simple relations between statistical and dynamical measures are found for the model and the cases where substituting nonlinear lattices with simpler processes is possible are presented. (author)

  15. HomeView Census Map Service, Region 9, 2012, US EPA Region 9

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Map of various Census - related information from 2000. Data include Tracts (Population Density), Block groups, and the Social Vulnerability Index from Arizona.

  16. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

    2016-04-15

    In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Defining energy vulnerability in mobility. Measuring energy vulnerability in mobility. Acting against energy vulnerability in mobility. Discussing energy vulnerability in mobility. Task no. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouffe, Yves; Massot, Marie-Helene; Noble, Cyprien

    2015-01-01

    Extensive expansion of urban areas generates transportation needs and energy expenses for mobility. Households already impacted by fuel poverty also suffer from energy vulnerability in their mobility. This report was prepared in the framework of the study of fuel poverty in France in the light of several indicators from existing inquiries, databases and modeling tools. The report is organised in 4 parts dealing with: the definition of energy vulnerability in mobility, its measurement, the possible remedial actions, and the discussions about energy vulnerability in mobility through working group meetings, respectively

  18. Seismic Vulnerability and Performance Level of confined brick walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghalehnovi, M.; Rahdar, H. A.

    2008-01-01

    There has been an increase on the interest of Engineers and designers to use designing methods based on displacement and behavior (designing based on performance) Regarding to the importance of resisting structure design against dynamic loads such as earthquake, and inability to design according to prediction of nonlinear behavior element caused by nonlinear properties of constructional material.Economically speaking, easy carrying out and accessibility of masonry material have caused an enormous increase in masonry structures in villages, towns and cities. On the other hand, there is a necessity to study behavior and Seismic Vulnerability in these kinds of structures since Iran is located on the earthquake belt of Alpide.Different reasons such as environmental, economic, social, cultural and accessible constructional material have caused different kinds of constructional structures.In this study, some tied walls have been modeled with software and with relevant accelerator suitable with geology conditions under dynamic analysis to research on the Seismic Vulnerability and performance level of confined brick walls. Results from this analysis seem to be satisfactory after comparison of them with the values in Code ATC40, FEMA and standard 2800 of Iran

  19. Seismic Vulnerability and Performance Level of confined brick walls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghalehnovi, M.; Rahdar, H. A.

    2008-07-01

    There has been an increase on the interest of Engineers and designers to use designing methods based on displacement and behavior (designing based on performance) Regarding to the importance of resisting structure design against dynamic loads such as earthquake, and inability to design according to prediction of nonlinear behavior element caused by nonlinear properties of constructional material. Economically speaking, easy carrying out and accessibility of masonry material have caused an enormous increase in masonry structures in villages, towns and cities. On the other hand, there is a necessity to study behavior and Seismic Vulnerability in these kinds of structures since Iran is located on the earthquake belt of Alpide. Different reasons such as environmental, economic, social, cultural and accessible constructional material have caused different kinds of constructional structures. In this study, some tied walls have been modeled with software and with relevant accelerator suitable with geology conditions under dynamic analysis to research on the Seismic Vulnerability and performance level of confined brick walls. Results from this analysis seem to be satisfactory after comparison of them with the values in Code ATC40, FEMA and standard 2800 of Iran.

  20. Land tenure insecurity, vulnerability to climate-induced disaster and opportunities for redress in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tigere Chagutah

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Land tenure is an important variable impacting on vulnerability to climate-related disaster. Land tenure insecurity is widespread in southern Africa and manifests itself in a number of ways that accentuate vulnerability to climate change impacts. Insecure tenure is seen to heighten vulnerability against growing demand for land for residential purposes and working space in urban areas while in the rural areas insecure tenure militates against diversified livelihoods and hinders investment in appropriate technologies and uptake of sound environmental management practices. Using the focused synthesis method, this article (1 maps the intersections between land tenure insecurity and vulnerability to climate-induced disaster in southern Africa; and (2 identifies the opportunities tenure reforms hold for vulnerability reduction in a region predicted to suffer widespread impacts from climate change. The paper contends that land tenure is a critical component of the milieu of factors – economic, social, cultural, institutional, political and even psychological – that are known to shape vulnerability and determine the environment that people live in. The study finds that land tenure reforms can help to reduce vulnerability and enhance community resilience to climate change. In this regard, the article outlines how tenure reforms can help build diverse household livelihoods, improve environmental management, particularly in the rural areas, and encourage investment in robust housing and safe neighbourhoods among the urban poor – all of which are integral to the region’s response to climate change.

  1. Environmental sensibility maps of pipelines rows; Mapas de sensibilidade ambiental para faixas de dutos terrestres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Wilson J. de [PETROBRAS Engenharia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Engenharia de Avaliacao Ambiental IEGEN/EGE/EAMB; Ferreira Filho, Aluisio Teles; Ferreira, Vanderlei Cardoso [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). SMS - Seguranca, Meio Ambiente e Saude; Braun, Oscar P.G.; Pereira, Junior, Edson Rodrigues [Geodatum, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    To subsidize its contingency plans for oil leaks, TRANSPETRO, subsidiary of PETROBRAS, set up an internal program with a big extension to obtain Environmental Sensibility Maps over a strip of twenty kilometers of width along more than five thousand kilometers of pipelines. Due to the pioneer characteristic of these natural survey (thematic cartography) it was opted a first approach for integration of this information in 1:50.000 scale. Based on a Geographical Information System (GIS), it was opted the supervised geo processing resources, compiling, firstly, the elevation, soil and geological maps for generation of the physical environment vulnerability units. Using a combination by weight average, ten vulnerability units were generated and were improved through aggregation in five units to decrease the complexity of the representation in map. These classes represent the combinations of variables of the physical environment that can be recognized by theirs corresponding landscapes. Based on interpretation of orbital LANDSAT TM images, aided by verifications in aerial photograph and a systematic survey of notable points of environmental observation (PVAs) along the pipelines, it was elaborated a general map of soil use and vegetable coverage. The classes of this theme were combined with the classes of physical vulnerability environment to generate five classes of Environmental Sensibility (Environmental Sensibility Maps). Over this theme, were attributed the representations of the main types of vegetable coverage and occupation of the soil, as well as the fauna and the other social-economics aspects, obtaining therefore a map with all the essential controller information of the environmental protection measures. (author)

  2. Augmented reality and dynamic infrared thermography for perforator mapping in the anterolateral thigh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifuentes, Ignacio Javier; Dagnino, Bruno Leonardo; Salisbury, María Carolina; Perez, María Eliana; Ortega, Claudia; Maldonado, Daniela

    2018-05-01

    Dynamic infrared thermography (DIRT) has been used for the preoperative mapping of cutaneous perforators. This technique has shown a positive correlation with intraoperative findings. Our aim was to evaluate the accuracy of perforator mapping with DIRT and augmented reality using a portable projector. For this purpose, three volunteers had both of their anterolateral thighs assessed for the presence and location of cutaneous perforators using DIRT. The obtained image of these "hotspots" was projected back onto the thigh and the presence of Doppler signals within a 10-cm diameter from the midpoint between the lateral patella and the anterior superior iliac spine was assessed using a handheld Doppler device. Hotspots were identified in all six anterolateral thighs and were successfully projected onto the skin. The median number of perforators identified within the area of interest was 5 (range, 3-8) and the median time needed to identify them was 3.5 minutes (range, 3.3-4.0 minutes). Every hotspot was correlated to a Doppler sound signal. In conclusion, augmented reality can be a reliable method for transferring the location of perforators identified by DIRT onto the thigh, facilitating its assessment and yielding a reliable map of potential perforators for flap raising.

  3. Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location

  4. A client-server software for the identification of groundwater vulnerability to pesticides at regional level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

    2015-10-15

    The groundwater VULnerability to PESticide software system (VULPES) is a user-friendly, GIS-based and client-server software developed to identify vulnerable areas to pesticides at regional level making use of pesticide fate models. It is a Decision Support System aimed to assist the public policy makers to investigate areas sensitive to specific substances and to propose limitations of use or mitigation measures. VULPES identify the so-called Uniform Geographical Unit (UGU) which are areas characterised by the same agro-environmental conditions. In each UGU it applies the PELMO model obtaining the 80th percentile of the substance concentration at 1 metre depth; then VULPES creates a vulnerability map in shapefile format which classifies the outputs comparing them with the lower threshold set to the legal limit concentration in groundwater (0.1 μg/l). This paper describes the software structure in details and a case study with the application of the terbuthylazine herbicide on the Lombardy region territory. Three zones with different degrees of vulnerabilities has been identified and described. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Public assessment of the usefulness of "draft" tsunami evacuation maps from Sydney, Australia – implications for the establishment of formal evacuation plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dall'Osso

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Australia is at risk from tsunamis and recent work has identified the need for models to assess the vulnerability of exposed coastal areas – a fundamental element of the risk management process. Outputs of vulnerability assessment can be used as a baseline for the generation of tsunami prevention and mitigation measures, including evacuation maps. Having noted that no evacuation maps exist for Manly, Sydney (an area recently subjected to high resolution building vulnerability assessment by Dall'Osso et al., 2009b, we use the results of the analysis by Dall'Osso et al. (2009b to "draft" tsunami evacuation maps that could be used by the local emergency service organisations. We then interviewed 500 permanent residents of Manly in order to gain a rapid assessment on their views about the potential usefulness of the draft evacuation maps we generated. Results of the survey indicate that residents think the maps are useful and understandable, and include insights that should be considered by local government planners and emergency risk management specialists during the development of official evacuation maps (and plans in the future.

  6. Root hydraulic vulnerability regulation of whole-plant conductance along hillslope gradients within subalpine and montane forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.; Ewers, B. E.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem-scale models often rely on root vulnerability or whole-plant conductance for simulating seasonal evapotranspiration declines via constraints of water uptake and vegetation mortality. Further, many of these ecosystem models rely on single, unvarying, hydraulic parameter estimates for modeling large areas. Ring-porous species have shown seasonal variability in root vulnerability (percent loss of conductivity; PLC) and whole-plant conductance (Kw) but simulations of coniferous forest typically rely on point measurements. This assumption for coniferous forest is not likely true because of seasonal variability caused by phenology and environmental stresses and the potential for cavitation fatigue is not considered. Moreover, many of these dynamics have only been considered for stems even though roots are often the most vulnerable segments of the pathway for conifers. We hypothesized that seasonally dynamic whole-plant conductance along hillslope gradients in coniferous forests are regulated by cavitation fatigue within the roots resulting in seasonal increases in vulnerability. To test the hypothesis, a subalpine mixed forest (3000 m.a.s.l) and montane forest (2550 m.a.s.l.) were monitored between 2015-2017 to quantify PLC and Kw along the hillslope gradients of 300 m and 50 m, respectively. Forest plots were instrumented with 35 Granier-type sapflow sensors. Seasonal sampling campaigns occurred to quantify PLC through centrifuge techniques and Kw through Darcy's law approximations with pre-dawn and diurnal leaf water potentials. Downslope roots exhibit a 33% decrease in maximal conductivity corresponding to the approximately 50% decrease in whole-plant conductance suggesting seasonal soil dry-down limitations within the downslope stands. Upslope stands had no to little change in root vulnerability or decrease in whole-plant conductance as soil water limitations occur immediately following snowmelt, thus limiting hydraulic conductance throughout the growing

  7. Development of a dynamic web mapping service for vegetation productivity using earth observation and in situ sensors in a sensor web based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooistra, L.; Bergsma, A.R.; Chuma, B.; Bruin, de S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a sensor web based approach which combines earth observation and in situ sensor data to derive typical information offered by a dynamic web mapping service (WMS). A prototype has been developed which provides daily maps of vegetation productivity for the

  8. Dynamic Changes of Landscape Pattern and Vulnerability Analysis in Qingyi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziwei; Xie, Chaoying; He, Xiaohui; Guo, Hengliang; Wang, Li

    2017-11-01

    Environmental vulnerability research is one of the core areas of global environmental change research. Over the past 10 years, ecologically fragile zones or transition zones had been significantly affected by environmental degradation and climate change and human activities. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of landscape pattern and landscape vulnerability degree in Qingyi River Basin by calculating the landscape sensitivity index and landscape restoration degree index based on Landsat images of 2005, 2010 and 2015. The results showed that: (1) The top conversion area was farmland, woodland and grassland area decreased, city land and rural residential land increased fastest. (2) The fragility of the landscape pattern along the Qingyi River gradually increased between 2005 and 2015, the downstream area was influenced by the influence of human activities. (3) Landscape pattern changes and fragility are mainly affected by urbanization. These findings are helpful for understanding the evolution of landscape pattern as well as urban ecology, which both have significant implications for urban planning and minimize the potential environmental impacts of urbanization in Qingyi River Basin.

  9. Are older people a vulnerable group? Philosophical and bioethical perspectives on ageing and vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozzaro, Claudia; Boldt, Joachim; Schweda, Mark

    2018-05-01

    The elderly are often considered a vulnerable group in public and academic bioethical debates and regulations. In this paper, we examine and challenge this assumption and its ethical implications. We begin by systematically delineating the different concepts of vulnerability commonly used in bioethics, before then examining whether these concepts can be applied to old age. We argue that old age should not, in and of itself, be used as a marker of vulnerability, since ageing is a process that can develop in a variety of different ways and is not always associated with particular experiences of vulnerability. We, therefore, turn to more fundamental phenomenological considerations in order to reconstruct from a first person perspective the intricate interconnections between the experiences of ageing and vulnerability. According to this account, ageing and old age are phenomena in which the basic anthropological vulnerability of human beings can manifest itself in an increased likelihood of harm and exploitation. Thus, we plead for a combined model of vulnerability that helps to avoid problems related to the current concepts of vulnerability. We conclude first that old age as such is not a sufficient criterion for being categorized as vulnerable in applied ethics, and second that reflections on ageing can help to develop a better understanding of the central role of vulnerability in human existence and in applied ethics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Securing Digital Audio using Complex Quadratic Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryadi, MT; Satria Gunawan, Tjandra; Satria, Yudi

    2018-03-01

    In This digital era, exchanging data are common and easy to do, therefore it is vulnerable to be attacked and manipulated from unauthorized parties. One data type that is vulnerable to attack is digital audio. So, we need data securing method that is not vulnerable and fast. One of the methods that match all of those criteria is securing the data using chaos function. Chaos function that is used in this research is complex quadratic map (CQM). There are some parameter value that causing the key stream that is generated by CQM function to pass all 15 NIST test, this means that the key stream that is generated using this CQM is proven to be random. In addition, samples of encrypted digital sound when tested using goodness of fit test are proven to be uniform, so securing digital audio using this method is not vulnerable to frequency analysis attack. The key space is very huge about 8.1×l031 possible keys and the key sensitivity is very small about 10-10, therefore this method is also not vulnerable against brute-force attack. And finally, the processing speed for both encryption and decryption process on average about 450 times faster that its digital audio duration.

  11. Evolution of the vulnerability to phenomena associated with landslides and floods. Case northeastern Medellin, 1960 -1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidal G, Lina Maria

    2008-01-01

    This paper is about evolution of vulnerability to hazards related to landslides and floods in Northeast of Medellin between 1960 y 1990, connecting urban planning and politics for informal settlements with land occupation processes which have influenced forming of urban vulnerable communities. Case study analysis shows that vulnerability conditions moved following land occupation trajectories and city expansion according to intrinsic adaptation characteristics of settlement inhabitants to environmental conditions, regional processes and dynamics influenced by city politics. Due to accumulation of vulnerability it is interpreted as an environmental impact of processes that influence its configuration which is not static spatial or temporarily neither it correspond to a cause-effect approach but it is complex and connected to other urban environmental expressions

  12. Stochasticity in the Josephson map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.H.; Filippov, A.T.

    1996-04-01

    The Josephson map describes nonlinear dynamics of systems characterized by standard map with the uniform external bias superposed. The intricate structures of the phase space portrait of the Josephson map are examined on the basis of the tangent map associated with the Josephson map. Numerical observation of the stochastic diffusion in the Josephson map is examined in comparison with the renormalized diffusion coefficient calculated by the method of characteristic function. The global stochasticity of the Josephson map occurs at the values of far smaller stochastic parameter than the case of the standard map. (author)

  13. GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

  14. Nonlinear mapping of the luminance in dual-layer high dynamic range displays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnieri, Gabriele; Ramponi, Giovanni; Bonfiglio, Silvio; Albani, Luigi

    2009-02-01

    It has long been known that the human visual system (HVS) has a nonlinear response to luminance. This nonlinearity can be quantified using the concept of just noticeable difference (JND), which represents the minimum amplitude of a specified test pattern an average observer can discern from a uniform background. The JND depends on the background luminance following a threshold versus intensity (TVI) function. It is possible to define a curve which maps physical luminances into a perceptually linearized domain. This mapping can be used to optimize a digital encoding, by minimizing the visibility of quantization noise. It is also commonly used in medical applications to display images adapting to the characteristics of the display device. High dynamic range (HDR) displays, which are beginning to appear on the market, can display luminance levels outside the range in which most standard mapping curves are defined. In particular, dual-layer LCD displays are able to extend the gamut of luminance offered by conventional liquid crystals towards the black region; in such areas suitable and HVS-compliant luminance transformations need to be determined. In this paper we propose a method, which is primarily targeted to the extension of the DICOM curve used in medical imaging, but also has a more general application. The method can be modified in order to compensate for the ambient light, which can be significantly greater than the black level of an HDR display and consequently reduce the visibility of the details in dark areas.

  15. Modeling Lake Storage Dynamics to support Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimal, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Smith, L. C.; Smith, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Pavelsky, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and Boreal Zone (ABZ) of Canada and Alaska includes vast areas of permafrost, lakes, and wetlands. Permafrost thawing in this area is expected to increase due to the projected rise of temperature caused by climate change. Over the long term, this may reduce overall surface water area, but in the near-term, the opposite is being observed, with rising paludification (lake/wetland expansion). One element of NASA's ABoVE field experiment is observations of lake and wetland extent and surface elevations using NASA's AirSWOT airborne interferometric radar, accompanied by a high-resolution camera. One use of the WSE retrievals will be to constrain model estimates of lake storage dynamics. Here, we compare predictions using the lake dynamics algorithm within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme. The VIC lake algorithm includes representation of sub-grid topography, where the depth and area of seasonally-flooded areas are modeled as a function of topographic wetness index, basin area, and slope. The topography data used is from a new global digital elevation model, MERIT-DEM. We initially set up VIC at sites with varying permafrost conditions (i.e., no permafrost, discontinuous, continuous) in Saskatoon and Yellowknife, Canada, and Toolik Lake, Alaska. We constrained the uncalibrated model with the WSE at the time of the first ABoVE flight, and quantified the model's ability to predict WSE and ΔWSE during the time of the second flight. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the VIC-lakes model and compared the three permafrost conditions. Our results quantify the sensitivity of surface water to permafrost state across the target sites. Furthermore, our evaluation of the lake modeling framework contributes to the modeling and mapping framework for lake and reservoir storage change evaluation globally as part of the SWOT mission, planned for launch in 2021.

  16. Transient poverty, poverty dynamics, and vulnerability to poverty: An empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Patrick S

    2016-02-01

    China's economic reforms starting in the late 1970s have resulted in rapid economic growth, with annual growth in gross domestic product averaging greater than 10 percent per year for more than thirty years. Accompanying this rapid growth in national accounts have been rapid and widespread reductions in poverty. With these reductions in poverty, however, there has often been observed an increase in income inequality, both between as well as within rural and urban sectors. This rising income gap challenges the notion that economic reforms in China have been as successful as the poverty statistics would suggest. In this paper, we suggest that an alternative view would be to consider the effects of these reforms on changing the chronic nature of poverty and reducing household vulnerability to poverty. Using a balanced panel from rural China from 1991 through 2006, we find that most poverty among our sample has shifted from being chronic in nature to being transient, with households either shifting into a state of being non-poor moving in and out of poverty. Among our sample, vulnerability to poverty has been declining over time, but the declines are not uniform over time or space. We decompose household vulnerability status into two proximate causes: low expected income and high income variability, finding vulnerability increasingly due to income variability. Additionally, we demonstrate that vulnerable households have very different characteristics than non-vulnerable households.

  17. Transient poverty, poverty dynamics, and vulnerability to poverty: An empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Patrick S.

    2015-01-01

    China’s economic reforms starting in the late 1970s have resulted in rapid economic growth, with annual growth in gross domestic product averaging greater than 10 percent per year for more than thirty years. Accompanying this rapid growth in national accounts have been rapid and widespread reductions in poverty. With these reductions in poverty, however, there has often been observed an increase in income inequality, both between as well as within rural and urban sectors. This rising income gap challenges the notion that economic reforms in China have been as successful as the poverty statistics would suggest. In this paper, we suggest that an alternative view would be to consider the effects of these reforms on changing the chronic nature of poverty and reducing household vulnerability to poverty. Using a balanced panel from rural China from 1991 through 2006, we find that most poverty among our sample has shifted from being chronic in nature to being transient, with households either shifting into a state of being non-poor moving in and out of poverty. Among our sample, vulnerability to poverty has been declining over time, but the declines are not uniform over time or space. We decompose household vulnerability status into two proximate causes: low expected income and high income variability, finding vulnerability increasingly due to income variability. Additionally, we demonstrate that vulnerable households have very different characteristics than non-vulnerable households. PMID:26855470

  18. Vulnerability of damage-accumulating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Niels C.

    1996-01-01

    Disastrous failures have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. Quantified vulnerability can help designers and regulators to decide how much vulnerability is tolerable. Vulnerability of a system to a specified disturbance is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of the disturbed system to the probability of failure of the undisturbed system. This vulnerability can be specialized to particular system types. It is adapted here to systems that are expected to deteriorate while in service due to processes such as fatigue, creep, corrosion, aging, neglect or insufficient maintenance. Application is illustrated by vulnerability to fatigue under constant and variable stress

  19. Mapping Soil Carbon in the Yukon Kuskokwim River Delta Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natali, S.; Fiske, G.; Schade, J. D.; Mann, P. J.; Holmes, R. M.; Ludwig, S.; Melton, S.; Sae-lim, N.; Jardine, L. E.; Navarro-Perez, E.

    2017-12-01

    Arctic river deltas are hotspots for carbon storage, occupying 10% of carbon stored in arctic permafrost. The Yukon Kuskokwim (YK) Delta, Alaska is located in the lower latitudinal range of the northern permafrost region in an area of relatively warm permafrost that is particularly vulnerable to warming climate. Active layer depths range from 50 cm on peat plateaus to >100 cm in wetland and aquatic ecosystems. The size of the soil organic carbon pool and vulnerability of the carbon in the YK Delta is a major unknown and is critically important as climate warming and increasing fire frequency may make this carbon vulnerable to transport to aquatic and marine systems and the atmosphere. To characterize the size and distribution of soil carbon pools in the YK Delta, we mapped the land cover of a 1910 km2 watershed located in a region of the YK Delta that was impacted by fire in 2015. The map product was the result of an unsupervised classification using the Weka K Means clustering algorithm implemented in Google's Earth Engine. Inputs to the classification were Worldview2 resolution optical imagery (1m), Arctic DEM (5m), and Sentinel 2 level 1C multispectral imagery, including NDVI, (10 m). We collected 100 soil cores (0-30 cm) from sites of different land cover and landscape position, including moist and dry peat plateaus, high and low intensity burned plateaus, fens, and drained lakes; 13 lake sediment cores (0-50 cm); and 20 surface permafrost cores (to 100 cm) from burned and unburned peat plateaus. Active layer and permafrost soils were analyzed for organic matter content, soil moisture content, and carbon and nitrogen pools (30 and 100 cm). Soil carbon content varied across the landscape; average carbon content values for lake sediments were 12% (5- 17% range), fens 26% (9-44%), unburned peat plateaus 41% (34-44%), burned peat plateaus 19% (7-34%). These values will be used to estimate soil carbon pools, which will be applied to the spatial extent of each

  20. An improved map based graphical android authentication system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Currently, graphical password methods are available for android and other devices, but the major problem is vulnerability issue. A map graphical-based authentication system (Dheeraj et al, 2013) was designed on mobile android devices, but it did not provide a large choice or multiple sequence to user for selecting ...

  1. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  2. Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Carvalhaes, Thomaz M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act as an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.

  3. Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutts, Bethany B; Greenlee, Andrew J; Prochaska, Natalie K; Chantrill, Carolina V; Contractor, Annie B; Wilhoit, Juliana M; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

    2018-01-01

    Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics

  4. Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenlee, Andrew J.; Prochaska, Natalie K.; Chantrill, Carolina V.; Contractor, Annie B.; Wilhoit, Juliana M.; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

    2018-01-01

    Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics

  5. Vulnerabilidade à degradação dos solos da Bacia do Acaraú, Ceará Vulnerability to soil degradation in the Acaraú Basin, State of Ceara

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Helena da Silva de Oliveira Mota

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho objetivou elaborar um mapa de vulnerabilidade à degradação dos solos da bacia do rio Acaraú, CE, através de Sistema de Informações Geográficas e de metodologia multicritério aditivo. Para a obtenção das classes de vulnerabilidade, foram avaliados os temas geologia, geomorfologia, pedologia, vegetação e clima, definindo-se cinco classes: estável, moderadamente estável, medianamente estável/vulnerável, moderadamente vulnerável e vulnerável. A classe medianamente estável/vulnerável foi a mais representativa, ocupando 9.776 km² de extensão (67,8% da bacia, seguida da classe moderadamente estável que ocupou 4.180 km² de extensão (mais de 28% da bacia. Os resultados obtidos mostraram a viabilidade da aplicação do método para a elaboração do mapa de vulnerabilidade ambiental que pode ser utilizado na gestão territorial da bacia do Rio Acaraú.This work aimed to prepare a map of soil degradation vulnerability in the Acaraú basin, Ceará, through the Geographic Information System and multicriterium additive methodology. For the obtaining of classes of vulnerability, we evaluated information related to geology, geomorphology, pedology, vegetation and climate, resulting in five classes: stable, moderately stable, medium stable/vulnerable, moderately vulnerable and vulnerable. The class medium stable/vulnerable was the most representative, occupying 9,776 km² of extension (67.8 % of the basin, followed by the class moderately stable, which occupied 4,180 km² of extension (more than 28% of the basin. The results showed the viability of the method for preparing the map of environmental vulnerability, which can be applied in the territorial management of the Acaraú basin.

  6. Considering Time-Dependency of Social Vulnerability in Crisis Modeling and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, C.; Steinnocher, K.; Freire, S.; Loibl, W.; Peters-Anders, J.; Ungar, J.

    2012-04-01

    Crisis and disaster management is much more than the immediate first-response actions following an incident. In many projects the main focus has been on the phase starting at the point when an unwanted event happens and lasting until the activities return to normal routines (i.e., ad hoc reaction rather than proactive mitigation). There has been less emphasis on the other phases of the disaster management cycle such as prevention, preparedness, recovery and reconstruction, even though those phases have a strong influence on the general status of a society and its citizens. Especially the potential of a crisis to escalate into a large-scale disaster is heavily dependent on the overall level of preparedness as well as on the planning of mitigation and response actions and their timely execution. There is a need for improved decision-making support that enables modeling of different crisis scenarios and their impacts according to chosen prevention and response actions. Vulnerability describing the status of a society with respect to an imposed hazard or potential impact is considered a strongly multidisciplinary concept. A central objective of vulnerability assessment is to provide indications where and how people - and more specifically, what kind of people - might be affected by a certain impact. Results should provide decision- and policy-makers with supporting information to target response and mitigation actions adequately. For assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure mapping is usually considered the starting point. Integration of social structure and varying aspects of resilience further differentiate situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. In a disaster risk management context, assessment of human vulnerability has generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective integrated risk analysis

  7. Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

    2016-03-01

    The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

  8. Vulnerability to poverty in Brazilian municipalities in 2000 and 2010: A multidimensional approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Ottoni Teixeira Costa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of the temporal component into poverty analysis takes us to the study of the poverty dynamic, which focuses on investigating events of entering, remaining in and getting out of deprivation. As an effort to consider the diverse aspects unrelated to income in the study of vulnerability to poverty, the monetary approach is put aside and the multidimensional approach is used to elaborate the well-being index. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI is constructed with data from Brazil’s 2000 and 2010 Demographic Census. First, this article intends to quantify and describe the results of the MPI in Brazilian territory, using municipalities as unit of analysis. Second, it intends to analyze the factors associated to the poverty dynamics, which can be understood through the transition probability from a non-vulnerable state to a vulnerable state, in a distribution of the MPI in deciles. Finally, it intends to identify the municipalities that went through this transition in a regional level during the intercensal period. Results show that, despite the improvement observed in its whole national territory, Brazil’s North and Northeast remain with deeper deprivations while the Southern and Southeastern regions present the lowest incidence of multidimensional poverty. Dropout Rate of Grades 3–4 of High School, HDI-M Education, HDI-M Longevity, Logarithm of the Population, Gross Value Added per capita of Industry, Service Concentration Index and Entrepreneur Rate contribute positively to the reduction of municipal vulnerability to poverty. Compared to Northern municipalities, Southeastern Brazil has reduced more significantly the likelihood of position loss and has had a greater effect of increasing the probability of its upward movement. JEL classifications: I32, R13, Keywords: Multidimensional poverty, Vulnerability, Brazil

  9. Can the Future EnMAP Mission Contribute to Urban Applications? A Literature Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Müller

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available With urban populations and their footprints growing globally, the need to assess the dynamics of the urban environment increases. Remote sensing is one approach that can analyze these developments quantitatively with respect to spatially and temporally large scale changes. With the 2015 launch of the spaceborne EnMAP mission, a new hyperspectral sensor with high signal-to-noise ratio at medium spatial resolution, and a 21 day global revisit capability will become available. This paper presents the results of a literature survey on existing applications and image analysis techniques in the context of urban remote sensing in order to identify and outline potential contributions of the future EnMAP mission. Regarding urban applications, four frequently addressed topics have been identified: urban development and planning, urban growth assessment, risk and vulnerability assessment and urban climate. The requirements of four application fields and associated image processing techniques used to retrieve desired parameters and create geo-information products have been reviewed. As a result, we identified promising research directions enabling the use of EnMAP for urban studies. First and foremost, research is required to analyze the spectral information content of an EnMAP pixel used to support material-based land cover mapping approaches. This information can subsequently be used to improve urban indicators, such as imperviousness. Second, we identified the global monitoring of urban areas as a promising field of investigation taking advantage of EnMAP’s spatial coverage and revisit capability. However, owing to the limitations of EnMAPs spatial resolution for urban applications, research should also focus on hyperspectral resolution enhancement to enable retrieving material information on sub-pixel level.

  10. [Health inequality among vulnerable groups in Mexico: older adults, indigenous people, and migrants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juárez-Ramírez, Clara; Márquez-Serrano, Margarita; Salgado de Snyder, Nelly; Pelcastre-Villafuerte, Blanca Estela; Ruelas-González, María Guadalupe; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia

    2014-04-01

    Health vulnerability refers to a lack of protection for specific population groups with specific health problems, as well as the disadvantages they face in solving them in comparison with other population groups. This major public health problem has multiple and diverse causes, including a shortage of trained health care personnel and the lack of family, social, economic, and institutional support in obtaining care and minimizing health risks. Health vulnerability is a dynamic condition arising from the confluence of multiple social determinants. This article attempts to describe the health situation of three vulnerable groups in Mexico-older adults, indigenous people, and migrants-and, after defining the needs of each, explore measures that could contribute to the design and implementation of public health policies better tailored to their respective needs.

  11. METHOD FOR THE ESTIMATION OF SOIL VULNERABILITY AT THE CHEMICAL AGENTS IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Lacatusu

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available The negative effect induced to the soil by any impact, commonly chemical impact, defining the soil vulnerability to this impulse. To put in equation this soil characteristic, were chosen these physical and chemical indicators which determining the phenomenon intensity and its evolution direction, as: texture, pH (soil reaction, organic matter content, carbonates content and ion exchange capacity. Each of these indicators was divided into five classes, depending on the content in elements and/or chemical substances that defining any indicator, the specific indicator size, and on the direction and intensity of process generated by impact. Every of these five classes have been got marks from one to five according to soil capacity to putting up resistance to modification induced by impact. One mark reflecting the lowest impact resistance and five mark the highest ones. By summing of characteristic marks for each class resulted a scale from 5 to 25. According to this scale we could have very high soil vulnerability with only 5 points, and an invulnerable soil with 25 points. Analytical data of all these five physics and chemical indicators, determined for a specific territory, could be framing in vulnerability scale according to the presented methodology. This methodology permit to realize maps of the specific territories for soils vulnerability to impact of any nature chemical agents.

  12. Priority of areas for agricultural radiovulnerability mapping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Igreja, Eduardo, E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com, E-mail: eduigreja@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Wasserman, Maria Angelica V., E-mail: mwasserman@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Perez, Daniel V., E-mail: chpd@cnps.embrapa.br [Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (EMBRAPA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Solos; Rochedo, Pedro R.R., E-mail: rochedopedro@gmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Planejamento Energetico; Silva, Diogo N.G., E-mail: diogongs@gmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Instituto de Biofisica Carlos Chagas Filho

    2013-07-01

    The methodology for classifying areas according to soil properties for the vulnerability to a {sup 137}Cs contamination is of high importance to the preparedness related to nuclear and/or radiological accidents that lead to release of radionuclides to the environment with the consequent contamination of agricultural areas. The priority of research for agricultural areas should then focus on the surrounding areas of nuclear power plant that have higher probability of public exposure through the ingestion pathway. The objective of this work was to create a rank order for priority of areas to be mapped based on EMBRAPA database on soil properties. The 16 municipalities previously selected to define parameters for dose assessment simulations related to the Brazilian Nuclear Power Plants, located in the district of Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro, have been investigated in order to create this rank order to direct the research on radio vulnerability mapping, considering their relevance to public exposure based on their agricultural productivity. The two aspects selected in this study account for the maximum loss of income and to the collective doses that can be averted due to the banning of agricultural products. These quantities are inputs to optimization analysis. The priority defined shall then guide research on both the adequate values for the transfer factors and on the agricultural countermeasures suitable to each area according to the cause(s) of their vulnerability and their typical agricultural crops. (author)

  13. Priority of areas for agricultural radiovulnerability mapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochedo, Elaine R.R.; Igreja, Eduardo; Perez, Daniel V.; Rochedo, Pedro R.R.; Silva, Diogo N.G.

    2013-01-01

    The methodology for classifying areas according to soil properties for the vulnerability to a 137 Cs contamination is of high importance to the preparedness related to nuclear and/or radiological accidents that lead to release of radionuclides to the environment with the consequent contamination of agricultural areas. The priority of research for agricultural areas should then focus on the surrounding areas of nuclear power plant that have higher probability of public exposure through the ingestion pathway. The objective of this work was to create a rank order for priority of areas to be mapped based on EMBRAPA database on soil properties. The 16 municipalities previously selected to define parameters for dose assessment simulations related to the Brazilian Nuclear Power Plants, located in the district of Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro, have been investigated in order to create this rank order to direct the research on radio vulnerability mapping, considering their relevance to public exposure based on their agricultural productivity. The two aspects selected in this study account for the maximum loss of income and to the collective doses that can be averted due to the banning of agricultural products. These quantities are inputs to optimization analysis. The priority defined shall then guide research on both the adequate values for the transfer factors and on the agricultural countermeasures suitable to each area according to the cause(s) of their vulnerability and their typical agricultural crops. (author)

  14. Vulnerability effects of passengers' intermodal transfer distance preference and subway expansion on complementary urban public transportation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Liu; Yan, Yongze; Ouyang, Min; Tian, Hui; He, Xiaozheng

    2017-01-01

    The vulnerability studies on urban public transportation systems have attracted growing attentions in recent years, due to their important role in the economy development of a city and the well-beings of its citizens. This paper proposes a vulnerability model of complementary urban public transportation systems (CUPTSs) composed of bus systems and subway systems, with the consideration of passengers’ intermodal transfer distance preference (PITDP) to capture different levels of complementary strength between the two systems. Based on the model, this paper further introduces a CUPTSs-aimed vulnerability analysis method from two specific aspects: (a) vulnerability effects of different PITDP values, which facilitate the design of policies to change PITDP to reduce system vulnerability; (b) vulnerability effects of different subway expansion plans, which facilitate the vulnerability investigation of current expansion plan and the identification of the optimal expansion plan from the system vulnerability perspective. The proposed CUPTSs-aimed vulnerability analysis method is applied to investigate the complementary bus and subway systems in the city of Wuhan, China. The insights from this study are helpful to analyze other CUPTSs for valuable planning suggestions from the vulnerability perspective. - Highlights: • We model complementary urban public transportation systems’ (CUPTSs) vulnerability. • We use a PITDP metric to capture different levels of complementary relationship. • We study vulnerability under different PITDP and different subway expansion plans. • We analyze dynamic vulnerability of CUPTSs during their expansion process.

  15. Mangrove vulnerability index using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz; Ibrahim, Nuremira

    2018-02-01

    Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Environmental vulnerability can be understood as a function of exposure to impacts and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecological systems towards environmental tensors. Mangrove vulnerability ranking using up to 14 parameters found in study area, which is in Pulau Kukup and Sg Pulai, where 1 is low vulnerability and 5 is very high vulnerability. Mangrove Vulnerability Index (MVI) is divided into 3 main categories Physical Mangrove Index (PMI), Biological Mangrove Index (BMI) and Hazard Mangrove Index (HMI).

  16. The ethics of conducting a co-operative inquiry with vulnerable people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, Stephen R; Lathlean, Judith A

    2004-09-01

    Mental health services users have been calling for greater participation in clinical research. Participation in this context means research 'with' rather than 'on' groups of people. Conducting a co-operative inquiry involving the participation of vulnerable individuals as co-researchers, in particular those with a history of mental health problems, places an obligation on researchers to articulate and justify sound ethical procedures. The aim of this paper is to consider how the ethical issues encountered when conducting participative research with vulnerable people can be addressed in the implementation of a co-operative inquiry with users of mental health services. The study was based on personal reflection and a critical review of associated literature obtained from a database search using Boolean logic. The findings, presented under the headings of the four prima facie moral principles, suggest the need for researchers using participative approaches to demonstrate the humanistic attributes required for engaging and working with people over a period of time. These include building and maintaining trusting relationships, assessing competence to participate, managing interpersonal and group dynamics and making complex collaborative decisions about participants' continued participation in a study. When using a co-operative inquiry approach involving vulnerable individuals, researchers need to demonstrate clearly how a balance between autonomy and paternalism will be achieved, how risks will be anticipated and managed and how fairness will be maintained throughout all procedures. Researchers using participative approaches need to have developed a level of personal insight and self-awareness through access to supervision which focuses on sources of unintended manipulation and interpersonal dynamics that may arise at the inception of a study and throughout its course. Researchers and ethics committees have a shared responsibility to ensure that vulnerable people are

  17. Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

    Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

  18. Vulnerability analysis of complementary transportation systems with applications to railway and airline systems in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Min; Pan, ZheZhe; Hong, Liu; He, Yue

    2015-01-01

    Most of existing studies on vulnerability analysis of multiple infrastructure systems mainly focus on negative effects of interdependencies, which mean that failures in one system can propagate to other systems and aggravate the initial damage. In reality, there also exist positive effects of interdependencies, which are shown in complementary systems and mean that if one system fails another system can provide alternative services to satisfy customers' demands. Different types of transportation systems in a city or country are typical complementary systems. Taking railway and airline systems in China as an example, this paper proposes a network-based approach to model the vulnerability of complementary transportation systems, and based on this model, this paper further introduces a dynamic complementary strength metric, which can help decision makers design or select better complementary topologies from the vulnerability perspective. Also, based on a simple genetic algorithm, this paper analyzes whether critical components for single systems are still important when taking two systems as a whole for analysis. Results show that a protection strategy of hardening a few critical components is also good strategy for the combined system. In addition, the findings and several assumptions are further discussed to close the gap between theory and practice. - Highlights: • We propose a method to model and analyze complementary system vulnerability. • We study vulnerability of complementary railway and airline systems in China. • We propose an approach to quantify dynamic complementary strength. • A few critical components for single systems are important for combined system

  19. Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

    2017-09-01

    The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

  20. Implications of adopting a biodiversity-based vulnerability index versus a shoreline environmental sensitivity index on management and policy planning along coastal areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harik, G; Alameddine, I; Maroun, R; Rachid, G; Bruschi, D; Astiaso Garcia, D; El-Fadel, M

    2017-02-01

    In this study, a multi-criteria index was developed to assess anthropogenic stressors along the Mediterranean coastline. The index aimed at geo-locating pollution hotspots for informed decision making related to coastal zone management. The index was integrated in a Geographical Information System based geodatabase implemented at several pilot areas along the Northern (Italy and France), Eastern (Lebanon), and Southern (Tunisia) Mediterranean coastlines. The generated stressor maps were coupled with a biodiversity richness index and an environmental sensitivity index to produce vulnerability maps that can form the basis for prioritizing management and mitigation interventions towards the identification of pollution hotspots and the promotion of sustainable coastal zone management. The results identified significant differences between the two assessment methods, which can bias prioritization in decision making and policy planning depending on stakeholders' interests. The discrepancies emphasize the need for transparency and understanding of the underlying foundations behind vulnerability indices and mapping development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs. Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

  2. What Does Vulnerability Mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parley, Fiona F

    2011-01-01

    Protection of those deemed vulnerable has received increasing attention since 2000. This article reports on care staff views of vulnerability using original data from a research study (Parley. "Vulnerability and abuse: an exploration of views of care staff working with people who have learning disabilities," PhD Thesis, 2007) in which care staff…

  3. Spatial-temporal analysis of dengue deaths: identifying social vulnerabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Maria do Socorro da; Branco, Maria Dos Remédios Freitas Carvalho; Aquino, José; Queiroz, Rejane Christine de Sousa; Bani, Emanuele; Moreira, Emnielle Pinto Borges; Medeiros, Maria Nilza Lima; Rodrigues, Zulimar Márita Ribeiro

    2017-01-01

    Currently, dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus represent serious public health issues in Brazil, despite efforts to control the vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This was a descriptive and ecological study of dengue deaths occurring from 2002 to 2013 in São Luis, Maranhão, Brazil. Geoprocessing software was used to draw maps, linking the geo-referenced deaths with urban/social data at census tract level. There were 74 deaths, concentrated in areas of social vulnerability. The use of geo-technology tools pointed to a concentration of dengue deaths in specific intra-urban areas.

  4. Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers' Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardezi, Maaz; Arbuckle, J Gordon

    2017-11-29

    Potential climate-change-related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual-level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Performance maps for the control of thermal energy storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finck, Christian; Li, Rongling; Zeiler, Wim

    2017-01-01

    Predictive control in building energy systems requires the integration of the building, building system, and component dynamics. The prediction accuracy of these dynamics is crucial for practical applications. This paper introduces performance maps for the control of water tanks, phase change mat...... material tanks, and thermochemical material tanks. The results show that these performance maps can fully account for the dynamics of thermal energy storage tanks.......Predictive control in building energy systems requires the integration of the building, building system, and component dynamics. The prediction accuracy of these dynamics is crucial for practical applications. This paper introduces performance maps for the control of water tanks, phase change...

  6. The role of network theory and object-oriented modeling within a framework for the vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eusgeld, Irene; Kroeger, Wolfgang; Sansavini, Giovanni; Schlaepfer, Markus; Zio, Enrico

    2009-01-01

    A framework for the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures has been proposed by some of the authors. The framework basically consists of two successive stages: (i) a screening analysis for identifying the parts of the critical infrastructure most relevant with respect to its vulnerability and (ii) a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights on the causes and mechanisms responsible for the vulnerability. In this paper, a critical presentation is offered of the results of a set of investigations aimed at evaluating the potentials of (i) using network analysis based on measures of topological interconnection and reliability efficiency, for the screening task; (ii) using object-oriented modeling as the simulation framework to capture the detailed dynamics of the operational scenarios involving the most vulnerable parts of the critical infrastructure as identified by the preceding network analysis. A case study based on the Swiss high-voltage transmission system is considered. The results are cross-compared and evaluated; the needs of further research are defined

  7. Spatial vulnerability assessment : methodology for the community and district level applied to floods in Buzi, Mozambique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienberger, S.

    2010-01-01

    Within this thesis a conceptual model is presented which allows for the definition of a vulnerability assessment according to its time and spatial scale and within a multi-dimensional framework, which should help to design and develop appropriate methodologies and adaptation of concepts for the required scale of implementation. Building on past experiences with participatory approaches in community mapping in the District of Buzi in Mozambique, the relevance of such approaches for a community-based disaster risk reduction framework is analysed. Finally, methodologies are introduced which allow the assessment of vulnerability and the prioritisation of vulnerability factors at the community level. At the district level, homogenous vulnerability regions are identified through the application of integrated modelling approaches which build on expert knowledge and weightings. A set of indicators is proposed, which allow the modelling of vulnerability in a data-scarce environment. In developing these different methodologies for the community and district levels, it has been identified that the monitoring of vulnerability and the identification of trends is essential to addressing the objective of a continuous and improved disaster risk management. In addition to the technical and methodological challenges discussed in this thesis, the commitment from different stakeholders and the availability of capacity in different domains is essential for the successful, practical implementation of the developed approaches. (author)

  8. Probing the Chaotic Dynamics of Fluids using Insights from Coupled Map Lattices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbish, Johnathon; Xu, Mu; Paul, Mark

    2017-11-01

    Many difficult fluid challenges exhibit high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos. Natural examples include the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans. New insights have been gained by studying canonical fluid problems such as Rayleigh-Bénard convection where significant progress has been made using large-scale computations of the partial differential equations that describe the fluid flow. However, these computations remain very expensive which makes it difficult, if not currently impossible, to explore new ideas that require large sample sets, vast sweeps of parameter space, and long-time statistics. We study these questions using coupled map lattices (CML) in one and two dimensions. We compute the covariant Lyapunov vectors to probe fundamental features of the CML's including the Lyapunov spectrum, fractal dimension, and the principal angle between the stable and unstable manifolds. We are particularly interested in the role of a conservation law on the chaotic dynamics, the use of ideas from equilibrium thermodynamics to yield a coarse-grained representation, and in the development of reduced order models. This work is supported by NSF DMS-1622299.

  9. Mapping barriers and intervention activities to behaviour change theory for Mobilization of Vulnerable Elders in Ontario (MOVE ON), a multi-site implementation intervention in acute care hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Julia E; Mascarenhas, Alekhya; Marquez, Christine; Almaawiy, Ummukulthum; Chan, Wai-Hin; D'Souza, Jennifer; Liu, Barbara; Straus, Sharon E

    2014-10-30

    As evidence-informed implementation interventions spread, they need to be tailored to address the unique needs of each setting, and this process should be well documented to facilitate replication. To facilitate the spread of the Mobilization of Vulnerable Elders in Ontario (MOVE ON) intervention, the aim of the current study is to develop a mapping guide that links identified barriers and intervention activities to behaviour change theory. Focus groups were conducted with front line health-care professionals to identify perceived barriers to implementation of an early mobilization intervention targeted to hospitalized older adults. Participating units then used or adapted intervention activities from an existing menu or developed new activities to facilitate early mobilization. A thematic analysis was performed on the focus group data, emphasizing concepts related to barriers to behaviour change. A behaviour change theory, the 'capability, opportunity, motivation-behaviour (COM-B) system', was used as a taxonomy to map the identified barriers to their root causes. We also mapped the behaviour constructs and intervention activities to overcome these. A total of 46 focus groups were conducted across 26 hospital inpatient units in Ontario, Canada, with 261 participants. The barriers were conceptualized at three levels: health-care provider (HCP), patient, and unit. Commonly mentioned barriers were time constraints and workload (HCP), patient clinical acuity and their perceived 'sick role' (patient), and lack of proper equipment and human resources (unit level). Thirty intervention activities to facilitate early mobilization of older adults were implemented across hospitals; examples of unit-developed intervention activities include the 'mobility clock' communication tool and the use of staff champions. A mapping guide was created with barriers and intervention activities matched though the lens of the COM-B system. We used a systematic approach to develop a guide

  10. Robot soccer anywhere: achieving persistent autonomous navigation, mapping, and object vision tracking in dynamic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragone, Mauro; O'Donoghue, Ruadhan; Leonard, John J.; O'Hare, Gregory; Duffy, Brian; Patrikalakis, Andrew; Leederkerken, Jacques

    2005-06-01

    The paper describes an ongoing effort to enable autonomous mobile robots to play soccer in unstructured, everyday environments. Unlike conventional robot soccer competitions that are usually held on purpose-built robot soccer "fields", in our work we seek to develop the capability for robots to demonstrate aspects of soccer-playing in more diverse environments, such as schools, hospitals, or shopping malls, with static obstacles (furniture) and dynamic natural obstacles (people). This problem of "Soccer Anywhere" presents numerous research challenges including: (1) Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) in dynamic, unstructured environments, (2) software control architectures for decentralized, distributed control of mobile agents, (3) integration of vision-based object tracking with dynamic control, and (4) social interaction with human participants. In addition to the intrinsic research merit of these topics, we believe that this capability would prove useful for outreach activities, in demonstrating robotics technology to primary and secondary school students, to motivate them to pursue careers in science and engineering.

  11. Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

    2009-04-01

    Recent catastrophic flood events such as Elbe in 2002 or Rhône in 2003 have shown limits of flood management policies relying on dykes protection: worsening of flood impacts downstream, increased damage by dykes rupture. Those events, among others, contributes to radical changes on the philosophy of flood prevention, with the promotion of new orientations for mitigating flood exposition. Two new trends may have a significant impact on rural areas: floodplain restoration and vulnerability mitigation. The Rhône River program, which is an contract of objectives signed between French Government and local collectivites, is highly illustrative of these new trends and their impact on agricultural sector. In this program, it appears that areas to be concerned by floodplain restoration are agricultural ones, because their supposed vulnerability to flood is expected to be less important to urban areas. As a consequence, agricultural sector is particularly concerned by planned actions on mitigation of assets vulnerability, an important part of the program (financial support of European Union of 7.5 Million euros). Mitigation of agricultural assets vulnerability reveals particularly interesting for two following reasons. Firstly, it is a way to maintain agricultural activities in floodplains yet existing, without promoting flood protection. Secondly, in case of floodplain restoration, vulnerability mitigation is a way for local authorities to compensate over-flooding impacts. In practice, local authorities may financially support farmers for implementing measures to mitigate their farm vulnerability. On the Rhône River, an important work has already been done to identify farm vulnerability to flooding, and propose measures to mitigate it. More than 3 000 farms exposed to flood risk have been identified representing 88 690 ha of agricultural areas which is estimated to generate damage between 400 and 800 Million euros depending on the season of occurrence for a catastrophic

  12. Poverty and Vulnerability - An Interdisciplinary Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Makoka, Donald; Kaplan, Marcus

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the concepts of poverty and vulnerability as well as the interconnections and differences between them using an interdisciplinary approach. While poverty is a static concept, vulnerability has a forward-looking dimension. We, therefore, review the methodologies that different disciplines use to measure poverty and vulnerability. In particular, the differences between vulnerability to natural disasters, vulnerability to climate change, as well as vulnerability to poverty a...

  13. Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

    2013-04-01

    SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

  14. Vulnerability of complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco

    2011-01-01

    We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.

  15. DYNAMICS OF DEPRESSION AMONG ADOLESCENTS IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN BULGARIA

    OpenAIRE

    Stanislava Stoyanova; Venka Petrova

    2015-01-01

    Depression becomes more and more typical for adolescence. The study of dynamics of depression during the teenage years is important for differentiation of the most vulnerable periods for development of depression in this age and to be pointed out some factors that could contribute to triggering, preventing or recovering depression. This study of dynamics of depression was based on Developmental theories of dynamics of depression that relate depression to some vulnerable age groups and on the ...

  16. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  17. Using climate-soil-socioeconomic parameters for a drought vulnerability assessment in a semi-arid region: Application at the region of El Hodna, (M’sila, Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boultif Meriem

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to contribute in assessing and monitoring drought’s vulnerability by developing a GIS-based model to determine vulnerable areas to this natural hazard; the model utilizes a series of agricultural, statistical, meteorological and remotely sensed data, using GIS weighed ponderation and multicriteria analysis decision making, with the integration of three components: climatic sensibility, soil sensibility and socioeconomic sensibility. The result is a vulnerability map classified into five classes according to pixel values. Very Vulnerable class forms 19.46% of the study area, vulnerable class forms 32.81% and 21.37% of the area is not vulnerable, the study presents a modeling procedure of which the final results provide to researchers, users and decision makers important information on the environmental situation of the study area, for better prediction, and risk management.

  18. Analysis of the Hazard, Vulnerability, and Exposure to the Risk of Flooding (Alba de Yeltes, Salamanca, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Veleda

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The present work has developed a method using GIS technology to evaluate the danger, vulnerability, and exposure to the risk of flooding in the Alba de Yeltes area (Salamanca, Spain. It is a non-structural measure for the prevention and mitigation of the risk of extraordinary flooding. After completing a full analysis of the physical environment (climate, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, hydrogeology, and land use, hydrological-hydraulic modeling was carried out using the GeoHecRas river analysis software. The results obtained from the analysis and the models have generated a danger map that facilitates the efficient evaluation of the spatial distribution of the different severity parameters (depth of the watersheet, current flow rate, and flood-prone areas. Also, map algebra and the databases associated with GIS tools, together with the vulnerability and exposure cartography, have allowed the risk to be analyzed in an integrate manner and the production of an environmental diagnostic map. The results of this study propose that there are inhabited areas close to the Yeltes-Morasverdes riverbed that have a high risk of flooding, indicating the need for proper land planning and the implementation of a series of measures that will help to reduce the risk of flooding and its impact.

  19. Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones

  20. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

    2015-12-04

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  1. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L. Akerlof

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We