Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng
2008-01-01
In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies
A Stochastic Cobweb Dynamical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Serena Brianzoni
2008-01-01
_,__0__1, and the forward predictor with probability (1−, so that the expected price at time is a random variable and consequently the dynamics describing the price evolution in time is governed by a stochastic dynamical system. The dynamical system becomes a Markov process when the memory rate vanishes. In particular, we study the Markov chain in the cases of discrete and continuous time. Using a mixture of analytical tools and numerical methods, we show that, when prices take discrete values, the corresponding Markov chain is asymptotically stable. In the case with continuous prices and nonnecessarily zero memory rate, numerical evidence of bounded price oscillations is shown. The role of the memory rate is studied through numerical experiments, this study confirms the stabilizing effects of the presence of resistant memory.
A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel Waema Mbogo
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.
A Stochastic Dynamic Model of Computer Viruses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chunming Zhang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A stochastic computer virus spread model is proposed and its dynamic behavior is fully investigated. Specifically, we prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions, and the stability of the virus-free equilibrium and viral equilibrium by constructing Lyapunov functions and applying Ito's formula. Some numerical simulations are finally given to illustrate our main results.
Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models
Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael
2016-01-01
This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.
Stochastic dynamic programming model for optimal resource ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
M Bhuvaneswari
2018-04-11
Apr 11, 2018 ... containers, doctors, nurses, cash and stocks. Similarly, the uncertainty may have different characterizations in these applications. An approximate stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) [3] allows nodes with a number of possible actions with clear strategies for devising an effective decision on optimal ...
Vulnerability in a Stochastic Dynamic Model
Elbers, Chris; Gunning, Jan Willem
2003-01-01
Most measures of vulnerability are a-theoretic and essentially static. In this paper we use a stochastic Ramsey model to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results
Analysis of stochastic model for nonlinear volcanic dynamics
Alexandrov, D. V.; Bashkirtseva, I. A.; Ryashko, L. B.
2015-01-01
Motivated by important geophysical applications we consider a dynamic model of the magma-plug system previously derived by Iverson et al.~(2006) under the influence of stochastic forcing. Due to strong nonlinearity of the friction force for a solid plug along its margins, the initial deterministic system exhibits impulsive oscillations. Two types of dynamic behavior of the system under the influence of the parametric stochastic forcing have been found: random trajectories ar...
Analysis of stochastic model for non-linear volcanic dynamics
D. Alexandrov; I. Bashkirtseva; L. Ryashko
2014-01-01
Motivated by important geophysical applications we consider a dynamic model of the magma-plug system previously derived by Iverson et al. (2006) under the influence of stochastic forcing. Due to strong nonlinearity of the friction force for solid plug along its margins, the initial deterministic system exhibits impulsive oscillations. Two types of dynamic behavior of the system under the influence of the parametric stochastic forcing have been found: random ...
Modeling ion channel dynamics through reflected stochastic differential equations.
Dangerfield, Ciara E; Kay, David; Burrage, Kevin
2012-05-01
Ion channels are membrane proteins that open and close at random and play a vital role in the electrical dynamics of excitable cells. The stochastic nature of the conformational changes these proteins undergo can be significant, however current stochastic modeling methodologies limit the ability to study such systems. Discrete-state Markov chain models are seen as the "gold standard," but are computationally intensive, restricting investigation of stochastic effects to the single-cell level. Continuous stochastic methods that use stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to model the system are more efficient but can lead to simulations that have no biological meaning. In this paper we show that modeling the behavior of ion channel dynamics by a reflected SDE ensures biologically realistic simulations, and we argue that this model follows from the continuous approximation of the discrete-state Markov chain model. Open channel and action potential statistics from simulations of ion channel dynamics using the reflected SDE are compared with those of a discrete-state Markov chain method. Results show that the reflected SDE simulations are in good agreement with the discrete-state approach. The reflected SDE model therefore provides a computationally efficient method to simulate ion channel dynamics while preserving the distributional properties of the discrete-state Markov chain model and also ensuring biologically realistic solutions. This framework could easily be extended to other biochemical reaction networks.
Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks
M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk
2009-01-01
The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...
Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik
phytoplankton and benthic vegetation with feedback mechanisms is formulated, and it is demonstrated that bistability can occur for specific parameter settings. When stochastic input and stochastic propagation of the states are applied on the system regime shifts occur more frequently, and the threshold...
A stochastic dynamic programming model for stream water quality ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
This paper deals with development of a seasonal fraction-removal policy model for waste load allocation in streams addressing uncertainties due to randomness and fuzziness. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is developed to arrive at the steady-state seasonal fraction-removal policy. A fuzzy decision model ...
Reconstructing nonlinear dynamic models of gene regulation using stochastic sampling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reinelt Gerhard
2009-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The reconstruction of gene regulatory networks from time series gene expression data is one of the most difficult problems in systems biology. This is due to several reasons, among them the combinatorial explosion of possible network topologies, limited information content of the experimental data with high levels of noise, and the complexity of gene regulation at the transcriptional, translational and post-translational levels. At the same time, quantitative, dynamic models, ideally with probability distributions over model topologies and parameters, are highly desirable. Results We present a novel approach to infer such models from data, based on nonlinear differential equations, which we embed into a stochastic Bayesian framework. We thus address both the stochasticity of experimental data and the need for quantitative dynamic models. Furthermore, the Bayesian framework allows it to easily integrate prior knowledge into the inference process. Using stochastic sampling from the Bayes' posterior distribution, our approach can infer different likely network topologies and model parameters along with their respective probabilities from given data. We evaluate our approach on simulated data and the challenge #3 data from the DREAM 2 initiative. On the simulated data, we study effects of different levels of noise and dataset sizes. Results on real data show that the dynamics and main regulatory interactions are correctly reconstructed. Conclusions Our approach combines dynamic modeling using differential equations with a stochastic learning framework, thus bridging the gap between biophysical modeling and stochastic inference approaches. Results show that the method can reap the advantages of both worlds, and allows the reconstruction of biophysically accurate dynamic models from noisy data. In addition, the stochastic learning framework used permits the computation of probability distributions over models and model parameters
Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models
2016-08-02
Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for...12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 Online learning , multi-armed bandit, dynamic networks REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S... Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models Report Title This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for
On the Stochastic Dynamics of a Social Epidemics Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xun-Yang Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Alcohol abuse is a major social problem, which has caused a lot of damages or hidden dangers to the individual and the society. In this paper, with random factors of alcoholism considered in mortality rate of compartment populations, we formulate a stochastic alcoholism model according to compartment theory of infectious disease. Based on this model, we investigate the long-term stochastic dynamics behaviors of two equilibria of the corresponding deterministic model and point out the effect of random disturbance on the stability of the system. We find that when R0≤1, we get the estimation between the trajectory of stochastic system and E0=(Π/μs,0,0,0 in the average in time with respect to the disturbance intensity, while when R0>1, stochastic system is ergodic and has the unique stationary distribution. Finally, we carry out numerical simulations to support the corresponding theoretical results.
Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Madsen, Henrik
2009-01-01
A simple non-linear stochastic two state, discrete-time model is presented. The interaction between benthic and pelagic vegetation in aquatic ecosystems subject to changing external nutrient loading is described by the nonlinear functions. The dynamical behavior of the deterministic part of the m......A simple non-linear stochastic two state, discrete-time model is presented. The interaction between benthic and pelagic vegetation in aquatic ecosystems subject to changing external nutrient loading is described by the nonlinear functions. The dynamical behavior of the deterministic part...
Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanhui Lu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.
Dynamical behavior of a stochastic SVIR epidemic model with vaccination
Zhang, Xinhong; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmad, Bashir
2017-10-01
In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior of SVIR models in random environments. Firstly, we show that if R0s 1, the disease will be prevail. Moreover, this system admits a unique stationary distribution and it is ergodic when R˜0s > 1. Results show that environmental white noise is helpful for disease control. Secondly, we give sufficient conditions for the existence of nontrivial periodic solutions to stochastic SVIR model with periodic parameters. Finally, numerical simulations validate the analytical results.
A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics
von Schwerin, Erik
2010-03-17
The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.
Stochastic modelling of dynamical systems in biology
Pellin, Danilo
2017-01-01
In this thesis two relevant biological problems will be addressed from a statistical modelling perspective. The first regards the study of hematopoiesis, a still not well understood biological process rarely observable in humans due to technical and ethical reasons. Hematopoiesis is responsible for
Modeling and stochastic analysis of dynamic mechanisms of the perception
Pisarchik, A.; Bashkirtseva, I.; Ryashko, L.
2017-10-01
Modern studies in physiology and cognitive neuroscience consider a noise as an important constructive factor of the brain functionality. Under the adequate noise, the brain can rapidly access different ordered states, and provide decision-making by preventing deadlocks. Bistable dynamic models are often used for the study of the underlying mechanisms of the visual perception. In the present paper, we consider a bistable energy model subject to both additive and parametric noise. Using the catastrophe theory formalism and stochastic sensitivity functions technique, we analyze a response of the equilibria to noise, and study noise-induced transitions between equilibria. We demonstrate and analyse the effect of hysteresis squeezing when the intensity of noise is increased. Stochastic bifurcations connected with the suppression of oscillations by parametric noises are discussed.
Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.
Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos
2014-09-01
A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to
Stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maduro Almeida, Rodolfo; Macau, Elbert E N
2011-01-01
A stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread under flat terrain and no-wind conditions is proposed and its dynamics is characterized and analyzed. One of three possible states characterizes each cell: vegetation cell, burning cell and burnt cell. The dynamics of fire spread is modeled as a stochastic event with an effective fire spread probability S which is a function of three probabilities that characterize: the proportion of vegetation cells across the lattice, the probability of a burning cell becomes burnt, and the probability of the fire spread from a burning cell to a neighboring vegetation cell. A set of simulation experiments is performed to analyze the effects of different values of the three probabilities in the fire pattern. Monte-Carlo simulations indicate that there is a critical line in the model parameter space that separates the set of parameters which a fire can propagate from those for which it cannot propagate. Finally, the relevance of the model is discussed under the light of computational experiments that illustrate the capability of the model catches both the dynamical and static qualitative properties of fire propagation.
Modelling the heat dynamics of buildings using stochastic
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Madsen, Henrik
2000-01-01
This paper describes the continuous time modelling of the heat dynamics of a building. The considered building is a residential like test house divided into two test rooms with a water based central heating. Each test room is divided into thermal zones in order to describe both short and long term...... variations. Besides modelling the heat transfer between thermal zones, attention is put on modelling the heat input from radiators and solar radiation. The applied modelling procedure is based on collected building performance data and statistical methods. The statistical methods are used in parameter...... estimation and model validation, while physical knowledge is used in forming the model structure. The suggested lumped parameter model is thus based on thermodynamics and formulated as a system of stochastic differential equations. Due to the continuous time formulation the parameters of the model...
Stochastic dynamics and irreversibility
Tomé, Tânia
2015-01-01
This textbook presents an exposition of stochastic dynamics and irreversibility. It comprises the principles of probability theory and the stochastic dynamics in continuous spaces, described by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, and in discrete spaces, described by Markov chains and master equations. Special concern is given to the study of irreversibility, both in systems that evolve to equilibrium and in nonequilibrium stationary states. Attention is also given to the study of models displaying phase transitions and critical phenomema both in thermodynamic equilibrium and out of equilibrium. These models include the linear Glauber model, the Glauber-Ising model, lattice models with absorbing states such as the contact process and those used in population dynamic and spreading of epidemic, probabilistic cellular automata, reaction-diffusion processes, random sequential adsorption and dynamic percolation. A stochastic approach to chemical reaction is also presented.The textbook is intended for students of ...
Computational modeling of the nonlinear stochastic dynamics of horizontal drillstrings
Cunha, Americo; Soize, Christian; Sampaio, Rubens
2015-11-01
This work intends to analyze the nonlinear stochastic dynamics of drillstrings in horizontal configuration. For this purpose, it considers a beam theory, with effects of rotatory inertia and shear deformation, which is capable of reproducing the large displacements that the beam undergoes. The friction and shock effects, due to beam/borehole wall transversal impacts, as well as the force and torque induced by bit-rock interaction, are also considered in the model. Uncertainties of bit-rock interaction model are taken into account using a parametric probabilistic approach. Numerical simulations have shown that the mechanical system of interest has a very rich nonlinear stochastic dynamics, which generate phenomena such as bit-bounce, stick-slip, and transverse impacts. A study aiming to maximize the drilling process efficiency, varying drillstring velocities of translation and rotation is presented. Also, the work presents the definition and solution of two optimizations problems, one deterministic and one robust, where the objective is to maximize drillstring rate of penetration into the soil respecting its structural limits.
Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model
Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James
A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.
Stochastic cellular automata model for stock market dynamics.
Bartolozzi, M; Thomas, A W
2004-04-01
In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two-dimensional grid. Active traders are characterized by the decision to buy, sigma(i) (t)=+1, or sell, sigma(i) (t)=-1, a stock at a certain discrete time step. The remaining cells are inactive, sigma(i) (t)=0. The trading dynamics is then determined by the stochastic interaction between traders belonging to the same cluster. Extreme, intermittent events, such as crashes or bubbles, are triggered by a phase transition in the state of the bigger clusters present on the grid, where almost all the active traders come to share the same spin orientation. Most of the stylized aspects of the financial market time series, including multifractal proprieties, are reproduced by the model. A direct comparison is made with the daily closures of the S&P 500 index.
Stochastic cellular automata model for stock market dynamics
Bartolozzi, M.; Thomas, A. W.
2004-04-01
In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two-dimensional grid. Active traders are characterized by the decision to buy, σi (t)=+1 , or sell, σi (t)=-1 , a stock at a certain discrete time step. The remaining cells are inactive, σi (t)=0 . The trading dynamics is then determined by the stochastic interaction between traders belonging to the same cluster. Extreme, intermittent events, such as crashes or bubbles, are triggered by a phase transition in the state of the bigger clusters present on the grid, where almost all the active traders come to share the same spin orientation. Most of the stylized aspects of the financial market time series, including multifractal proprieties, are reproduced by the model. A direct comparison is made with the daily closures of the S&P500 index.
Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.
Ranganathan, Shyam; Nicolis, Stamatios C; Bali Swain, Ranjula; Sumpter, David J T
2017-01-01
The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.
Analysis of dynamic regimes in stochastically forced Kaldor model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Ryashko, Lev
2015-01-01
We consider the business cycle Kaldor model forced by random noise. Detailed parametric analysis of deterministic system is carried out and zones of coexisting stable equilibrium and stable limit cycle are found. Noise-induced transitions between these attractors are studied using stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains method. Critical values of noise intensity corresponding to noise-induced transitions “equilibrium → cycle” and “cycle → equilibrium” are estimated. Dominants in combined stochastic regimes are discussed.
Stochastic evolutions of dynamic traffic flow modeling and applications
Chen, Xiqun (Michael); Shi, Qixin
2015-01-01
This book reveals the underlying mechanisms of complexity and stochastic evolutions of traffic flows. Using Eulerian and Lagrangian measurements, the authors propose lognormal headway/spacing/velocity distributions and subsequently develop a Markov car-following model to describe drivers’ random choices concerning headways/spacings, putting forward a stochastic fundamental diagram model for wide scattering flow-density points. In the context of highway onramp bottlenecks, the authors present a traffic flow breakdown probability model and spatial-temporal queuing model to improve the stability and reliability of road traffic flows. This book is intended for researchers and graduate students in the fields of transportation engineering and civil engineering.
A Hierarchical Latent Stochastic Differential Equation Model for Affective Dynamics
Oravecz, Zita; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Vandekerckhove, Joachim
2011-01-01
In this article a continuous-time stochastic model (the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) is presented to model the perpetually altering states of the core affect, which is a 2-dimensional concept underlying all our affective experiences. The process model that we propose can account for the temporal changes in core affect on the latent level. The key…
Kulasiri, Don
2002-01-01
Most of the natural and biological phenomena such as solute transport in porous media exhibit variability which can not be modeled by using deterministic approaches. There is evidence in natural phenomena to suggest that some of the observations can not be explained by using the models which give deterministic solutions. Stochastic processes have a rich repository of objects which can be used to express the randomness inherent in the system and the evolution of the system over time. The attractiveness of the stochastic differential equations (SDE) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) come from the fact that we can integrate the variability of the system along with the scientific knowledge pertaining to the system. One of the aims of this book is to explaim some useufl concepts in stochastic dynamics so that the scientists and engineers with a background in undergraduate differential calculus could appreciate the applicability and appropriateness of these developments in mathematics. The ideas ...
Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process
Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.
2018-03-01
Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.
Volkova, Victoriya V; Lu, Zhao; Lanzas, Cristina; Scott, H Morgan; Gröhn, Yrjö T
2013-01-01
The ubiquitous commensal bacteria harbour genes of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), often on conjugative plasmids. Antimicrobial use in food animals subjects their enteric commensals to antimicrobial pressure. A fraction of enteric Escherichia coli in cattle exhibit plasmid-gene mediated AMR to a third-generation cephalosporin ceftiofur. We adapted stochastic differential equations with diffusion approximation (a compartmental stochastic mathematical model) to research the sources and roles of stochasticity in the resistance dynamics, both during parenteral antimicrobial therapy and in its absence. The results demonstrated that demographic stochasticity among enteric E. coli in the occurrence of relevant events was important for the AMR dynamics only when bacterial numbers were depressed during therapy. However, stochasticity in the parameters of enteric E. coli ecology, whether externally or intrinsically driven, contributed to a wider distribution of the resistant E. coli fraction, both during therapy and in its absence, with stochasticities in individual parameters interacting in their contribution.
Dynamic analysis of a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model
Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying; Wang, Shuangfeng; Zou, Guang-an
2018-02-01
The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, has led rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model. Firstly, we obtain the existence of the global solution. Secondly, sufficient conditions for extinction of the rumor are established. Lastly, the boundedness of solution is proved and some simulations are given to verify our results.
Cluster dynamics modelling of materials: A new hybrid deterministic/stochastic coupling approach
Terrier, Pierre; Athènes, Manuel; Jourdan, Thomas; Adjanor, Gilles; Stoltz, Gabriel
2017-12-01
Deterministic simulations of the rate equations governing cluster dynamics in materials are limited by the number of equations to integrate. Stochastic simulations are limited by the high frequency of certain events. We propose a coupling method combining deterministic and stochastic approaches. It allows handling different time scale phenomena for cluster dynamics. This method, based on a splitting of the dynamics, is generic and we highlight two different hybrid deterministic/stochastic methods. These coupling schemes are highly parallelizable and specifically designed to treat large size cluster problems. The proof of concept is made on a simple model of vacancy clustering under thermal ageing.
Optically levitated nanoparticle as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics.
Ricci, F; Rica, R A; Spasenović, M; Gieseler, J; Rondin, L; Novotny, L; Quidant, R
2017-05-09
Nano-mechanical resonators have gained an increasing importance in nanotechnology owing to their contributions to both fundamental and applied science. Yet, their small dimensions and mass raises some challenges as their dynamics gets dominated by nonlinearities that degrade their performance, for instance in sensing applications. Here, we report on the precise control of the nonlinear and stochastic bistable dynamics of a levitated nanoparticle in high vacuum. We demonstrate how it can lead to efficient signal amplification schemes, including stochastic resonance. This work contributes to showing the use of levitated nanoparticles as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics, with applications to a wide variety of fields.
The Dynamical Behaviors in a Stochastic SIS Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence.
Rifhat, Ramziya; Ge, Qing; Teng, Zhidong
2016-01-01
A stochastic SIS-type epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence and disease-induced mortality is investigated. It is proved that the dynamical behaviors of the model are determined by a certain threshold value [Formula: see text]. That is, when [Formula: see text] and together with an additional condition, the disease is extinct with probability one, and when [Formula: see text], the disease is permanent in the mean in probability, and when there is not disease-related death, the disease oscillates stochastically about a positive number. Furthermore, when [Formula: see text], the model admits positive recurrence and a unique stationary distribution. Particularly, the effects of the intensities of stochastic perturbation for the dynamical behaviors of the model are discussed in detail, and the dynamical behaviors for the stochastic SIS epidemic model with standard incidence are established. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the proposed open problems.
Dynamic analysis of a stochastic rumor propagation model
Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying
2018-01-01
The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, leads rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic rumor propagation model. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the rumor are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the rumor is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.
Advanced models of neural networks nonlinear dynamics and stochasticity in biological neurons
Rigatos, Gerasimos G
2015-01-01
This book provides a complete study on neural structures exhibiting nonlinear and stochastic dynamics, elaborating on neural dynamics by introducing advanced models of neural networks. It overviews the main findings in the modelling of neural dynamics in terms of electrical circuits and examines their stability properties with the use of dynamical systems theory. It is suitable for researchers and postgraduate students engaged with neural networks and dynamical systems theory.
Introduction to stochastic dynamic programming
Ross, Sheldon M; Lukacs, E
1983-01-01
Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming presents the basic theory and examines the scope of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. The book begins with a chapter on various finite-stage models, illustrating the wide range of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. Subsequent chapters study infinite-stage models: discounting future returns, minimizing nonnegative costs, maximizing nonnegative returns, and maximizing the long-run average return. Each of these chapters first considers whether an optimal policy need exist-providing counterexamples where appropriate-and the
Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.
2016-01-01
We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.
Rifhat, Ramziya; Wang, Lei; Teng, Zhidong
2017-09-01
In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a class of periodic stochastic SIS epidemic models with general nonlinear incidence f(S , I) . Some sufficient conditions on the permanence in the mean and extinction of positive solutions with probability one are established. By using the Khasminskii's boundary periodic Markov processes, the existence of stochastic nontrivial periodic solution for the models is also obtained. The numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results and some interesting conjectures are presented.
Dynamics of stochastic systems
Klyatskin, Valery I
2005-01-01
Fluctuating parameters appear in a variety of physical systems and phenomena. They typically come either as random forces/sources, or advecting velocities, or media (material) parameters, like refraction index, conductivity, diffusivity, etc. The well known example of Brownian particle suspended in fluid and subjected to random molecular bombardment laid the foundation for modern stochastic calculus and statistical physics. Other important examples include turbulent transport and diffusion of particle-tracers (pollutants), or continuous densities (''''oil slicks''''), wave propagation and scattering in randomly inhomogeneous media, for instance light or sound propagating in the turbulent atmosphere.Such models naturally render to statistical description, where the input parameters and solutions are expressed by random processes and fields.The fundamental problem of stochastic dynamics is to identify the essential characteristics of system (its state and evolution), and relate those to the input parameters of ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabass, Benedikt; Schwarz, Ulrich S
2010-01-01
In migrating cells, retrograde flow of the actin cytoskeleton is related to traction at adhesion sites located at the base of the lamellipodium. The coupling between the moving cytoskeleton and the stationary adhesions is mediated by the continuous association and dissociation of molecular bonds. We introduce a simple model for the competition between the stochastic dynamics of elastic bonds at the moving interface and relaxation within the moving actin cytoskeleton represented by an internal viscous friction coefficient. Using exact stochastic simulations and an analytical mean field theory, we show that the stochastic bond dynamics lead to biphasic friction laws as observed experimentally. At low internal dissipation, stochastic bond dynamics lead to a regime of irregular stick-and-slip motion. High internal dissipation effectively suppresses cooperative effects among bonds and hence stabilizes the adhesion.
Stochastic Dynamics on Hypergraphs and the Spatial Majority Rule Model
Lanchier, N.; Neufer, J.
2013-04-01
This article starts by introducing a new theoretical framework to model spatial systems which is obtained from the framework of interacting particle systems by replacing the traditional graphical structure that defines the network of interactions with a structure of hypergraph. This new perspective is more appropriate to define stochastic spatial processes in which large blocks of vertices may flip simultaneously, which is then applied to define a spatial version of the Galam's majority rule model. In our spatial model, each vertex of the lattice has one of two possible competing opinions, say opinion 0 and opinion 1, as in the popular voter model. Hyperedges are updated at rate one, which results in all the vertices in the hyperedge changing simultaneously their opinion to the majority opinion of the hyperedge. In the case of a tie in hyperedges with even size, a bias is introduced in favor of type 1, which is motivated by the principle of social inertia. Our analytical results along with simulations and heuristic arguments suggest that, in any spatial dimensions and when the set of hyperedges consists of the collection of all n×⋯× n blocks of the lattice, opinion 1 wins when n is even while the system clusters when n is odd, which contrasts with results about the voter model in high dimensions for which opinions coexist. This is fully proved in one dimension while the rest of our analysis focuses on the cases when n=2 and n=3 in two dimensions.
Describing macro-scale structure of the snow cover by a dynamic-stochastic model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. N. Gelfan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Possibilities to investigate the spatial structure of snow cover by means of dynamic-stochastic model are discussed in this article. Basin of the Cheboksary reservoir (area of 376 500 sq.km was used as an example. Results of numerical experiments show that our dynamic-stochastic model of the snow cover formation reproduces a snow field structure with adequate accuracy. The fractal dimensions of the modeled fields are in good correspondence with respective dimensions of fields obtained from data of the in situ observations.
A stochastic model simulating the spatiotemporal dynamics of yellow rust on wheat
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lett, C.; Østergård, Hanne
2000-01-01
A stochastic model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics in monocultures is described and applied to the simulation of yellow rust on wheat (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici). The most sensitive parameters of the model are latent period, daily multiplication factor...
Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen Xu
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Time-varying volatility is common in macroeconomic data and has been incorporated into macroeconomic models in recent work. Dynamic panel data models have become increasingly popular in macroeconomics to study common relationships across countries or regions. This paper estimates dynamic panel data models with stochastic volatility by maximizing an approximate likelihood obtained via Rao-Blackwellized particle filters. Monte Carlo studies reveal the good and stable performance of our particle filter-based estimator. When the volatility of volatility is high, or when regressors are absent but stochastic volatility exists, our approach can be better than the maximum likelihood estimator which neglects stochastic volatility and generalized method of moments (GMM estimators.
Stochastic Modeling of the Persistence of HIV: Early Population Dynamics
2013-05-10
move about. Mathematically, this process was described first by Norbert Wiener , after whom the process is named. We abbreviate the Wiener process W...stochastic process is Brownian motion, which is also known as the Wiener process. Originally used to describe the motion of particles suspended within a
A stochastic dynamic programming model for stream water quality ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
Keywords. Fuzzy decision; stochastic optimization; water quality; streamflow. 1. Introduction. River water quality management problems are characterized by various uncertainties at differ- ent stages of decision making to arrive at optimal allocation of the assimilative capacity of the river system. The two types of uncertainties ...
Is There Really a Global Business Cycle? : A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection
T. Berger (Tino); L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)
2016-01-01
textabstractWe investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961-2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with
Modeling dynamics of HIV infected cells using stochastic cellular automaton
Precharattana, Monamorn; Triampo, Wannapong
2014-08-01
Ever since HIV was first diagnosed in human, a great number of scientific works have been undertaken to explore the biological mechanisms involved in the infection and progression of the disease. Several cellular automata (CA) models have been introduced to gain insights into the dynamics of the disease progression but none of them has taken into account effects of certain immune cells such as the dendritic cells (DCs) and the CD8+ T lymphocytes (CD8+ T cells). In this work, we present a CA model, which incorporates effects of the HIV specific immune response focusing on the cell-mediated immunities, and investigate the interaction between the host immune response and the HIV infected cells in the lymph nodes. The aim of our work is to propose a model more realistic than the one in Precharattana et al. (2010) [10], by incorporating roles of the DCs, the CD4+ T cells, and the CD8+ T cells into the model so that it would reproduce the HIV infection dynamics during the primary phase of HIV infection.
Stochastic modelling of turbulence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Emil Hedevang Lohse
previously been shown to be closely connected to the energy dissipation. The incorporation of the small scale dynamics into the spatial model opens the door to a fully fledged stochastic model of turbulence. Concerning the interaction of wind and wind turbine, a new method is proposed to extract wind turbine...
Darmon, David
2018-03-01
In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.
The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation
Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong
2018-02-01
In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lars Buesing
2011-11-01
Full Text Available The organization of computations in networks of spiking neurons in the brain is still largely unknown, in particular in view of the inherently stochastic features of their firing activity and the experimentally observed trial-to-trial variability of neural systems in the brain. In principle there exists a powerful computational framework for stochastic computations, probabilistic inference by sampling, which can explain a large number of macroscopic experimental data in neuroscience and cognitive science. But it has turned out to be surprisingly difficult to create a link between these abstract models for stochastic computations and more detailed models of the dynamics of networks of spiking neurons. Here we create such a link and show that under some conditions the stochastic firing activity of networks of spiking neurons can be interpreted as probabilistic inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling. Since common methods for MCMC sampling in distributed systems, such as Gibbs sampling, are inconsistent with the dynamics of spiking neurons, we introduce a different approach based on non-reversible Markov chains that is able to reflect inherent temporal processes of spiking neuronal activity through a suitable choice of random variables. We propose a neural network model and show by a rigorous theoretical analysis that its neural activity implements MCMC sampling of a given distribution, both for the case of discrete and continuous time. This provides a step towards closing the gap between abstract functional models of cortical computation and more detailed models of networks of spiking neurons.
Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic Chemostat Model with Two Nutrients and One Microorganism
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jian Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A new stochastic chemostat model with two substitutable nutrients and one microorganism is proposed and investigated. Firstly, for the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is obtained by analyzing the stability of the equilibria. Then, for the stochastic model, the threshold of the stochastic chemostat for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is explored. Difference of the threshold of the deterministic model and the stochastic model shows that a large stochastic disturbance can affect the persistence of the microorganism and is harmful to the cultivation of the microorganism. To illustrate this phenomenon, we give some computer simulations with different intensity of stochastic noise disturbance.
Stochastic modeling and simulation of reaction-diffusion system with Hill function dynamics.
Chen, Minghan; Li, Fei; Wang, Shuo; Cao, Young
2017-03-14
Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems presents great challenges for spatiotemporal biological modeling and simulation. One widely used framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems is reaction diffusion master equation (RDME). Previous studies have discovered that for the RDME, when discretization size approaches zero, reaction time for bimolecular reactions in high dimensional domains tends to infinity. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the 1D domain, highly nonlinear reaction dynamics given by Hill function may also have dramatic change when discretization size is smaller than a critical value. Moreover, we discuss methods to avoid this problem: smoothing over space, fixed length smoothing over space and a hybrid method. Our analysis reveals that the switch-like Hill dynamics reduces to a linear function of discretization size when the discretization size is small enough. The three proposed methods could correctly (under certain precision) simulate Hill function dynamics in the microscopic RDME system.
Stochastic ice stream dynamics.
Mantelli, Elisa; Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca
2016-08-09
Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution.
Dynamics of a stochastic SIS model with double epidemic diseases driven by Lévy jumps
Zhang, Xinhong; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmad, Bashir
2017-04-01
This paper is to investigate the dynamics of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and double epidemic diseases which make the research more complex. The environment variability in this study is characterized by white noise and jump noise. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence in the mean of two epidemic diseases are obtained. It is shown that the two diseases can coexist under appropriate conditions. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the results developed.
Developing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
A range of applied economic tools, such as time series models or econometric models that build on simple statistical properties, have been used to provide these types of analyses. However, there is now an increasing body of economic literature that attempts to build economic models based on a more comprehensive and ...
A stochastic dynamic programming model for stream water quality ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
1. Introduction. River water quality management problems are characterized by various uncertainties at differ- ... model to achieve the maximum economic benefits without violating water quality standards. This model ..... for aquatic life, for example, would be a useful application of the methodology presented in the paper.
Developing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
NCAER is planning the project in two phases: -Phase 1: Researchers will develop a model for India based on a review of the relevant literature and consultations. They will develop a database for estimating purposes. -Phase 2: Researchers will estimate the model, operationalize it, and validate it through alternative sets of ...
Dynamic, stochastic models for congestion pricing and congestion securities.
2010-12-01
This research considers congestion pricing under demand uncertainty. In particular, a robust optimization (RO) approach is applied to optimal congestion pricing problems under user equilibrium. A mathematical model is developed and an analysis perfor...
Dynamical Behavior of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model
Hieu, N. T.; Du, N. H.; Auger, P.; Dang, N. H.
2015-01-01
In this paper we study the Kernack - MacKendrick model under telegraph noise. The telegraph noise switches at random between two SIRS models. We give out conditions for the persistence of the disease and the stability of a disease free equilibrium. We show that the asymptotic behavior highly depends on the value of a threshold $\\lambda$ which is calculated from the intensities of switching between environmental states, the total size of the population as well as the parameters of both SIRS sy...
Complex stochastic dynamics in the modeling of living systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lesne, A.
2010-01-01
I will discuss on general grounds some specific aspects of living systems compared to physical ones and the ensuing requirements for their modeling. I will argue that a main specificity of living systems lies in their complex multilevel organization, in which emergent properties exert regulatory feedbacks onto the elements state spaces and rules of evolution. As an illustration, I will detail a scenario of metastasis formation (cancer cells escape from a primary tumor to form a secondary tumor) we recently proposed in collaboration with experimental cell biologists. (author)
Lanchier, Nicolas
2017-01-01
Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the ...
The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process
Ishii, Akira; Arakaki, Hisashi; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshida, Narihiko
2012-06-01
A mathematical model for the ‘hit’ phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.
A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds
Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng
2018-02-01
A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.
Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun
2017-09-01
In attempt to reproduce price dynamics of financial markets, a stochastic agent-based financial price model is proposed and investigated by stochastic exclusion process. The exclusion process, one of interacting particle systems, is usually thought of as modeling particle motion (with the conserved number of particles) in a continuous time Markov process. In this work, the process is utilized to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents, in order to explain some stylized facts found in financial time series dynamics. To better understand the correlation behaviors of the proposed model, a new time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation (TDI-DCC) is introduced and performed, also, the autocorrelation analyses are applied in the empirical research. Furthermore, to verify the rationality of the financial price model, the actual return series are also considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation ones. The comparison results of return behaviors reveal that this financial price dynamics model can reproduce some correlation features of actual stock markets.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghirardi, G.C.; Pearle, P.
1991-02-01
The problem of getting a relativistic generalization of the CSL dynamical reduction model, which has been presented in part I, is discussed. In so doing we have the opportunity to introduce the idea of a stochastically invariant theory. The theoretical model we present, that satisfies this kind of invariance requirement, offers us the possibility to reconsider, from a new point of view, some conceptually relevant issues such as nonlocality, the legitimacy of attributing elements of physical reality to physical systems and the problem of establishing causal relations between physical events. (author). Refs, 3 figs
A stochastic agent-based model of pathogen propagation in dynamic multi-relational social networks
Khan, Bilal; Dombrowski, Kirk; Saad, Mohamed
2015-01-01
We describe a general framework for modeling and stochastic simulation of epidemics in realistic dynamic social networks, which incorporates heterogeneity in the types of individuals, types of interconnecting risk-bearing relationships, and types of pathogens transmitted across them. Dynamism is supported through arrival and departure processes, continuous restructuring of risk relationships, and changes to pathogen infectiousness, as mandated by natural history; dynamism is regulated through constraints on the local agency of individual nodes and their risk behaviors, while simulation trajectories are validated using system-wide metrics. To illustrate its utility, we present a case study that applies the proposed framework towards a simulation of HIV in artificial networks of intravenous drug users (IDUs) modeled using data collected in the Social Factors for HIV Risk survey. PMID:25859056
Wood, Julie; Oravecz, Zita; Vogel, Nina; Benson, Lizbeth; Chow, Sy-Miin; Cole, Pamela; Conroy, David E; Pincus, Aaron L; Ram, Nilam
2017-12-15
Life-span theories of aging suggest improvements and decrements in individuals' ability to regulate affect. Dynamic process models, with intensive longitudinal data, provide new opportunities to articulate specific theories about individual differences in intraindividual dynamics. This paper illustrates a method for operationalizing affect dynamics using a multilevel stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, and examines how those dynamics differ with age and trait-level tendencies to deploy emotion regulation strategies (reappraisal and suppression). Univariate multilevel SDE models, estimated in a Bayesian framework, were fit to 21 days of ecological momentary assessments of affect valence and arousal (average 6.93/day, SD = 1.89) obtained from 150 adults (age 18-89 years)-specifically capturing temporal dynamics of individuals' core affect in terms of attractor point, reactivity to biopsychosocial (BPS) inputs, and attractor strength. Older age was associated with higher arousal attractor point and less BPS-related reactivity. Greater use of reappraisal was associated with lower valence attractor point. Intraindividual variability in regulation strategy use was associated with greater BPS-related reactivity and attractor strength, but in different ways for valence and arousal. The results highlight the utility of SDE models for studying affect dynamics and informing theoretical predictions about how intraindividual dynamics change over the life course. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Modelling the heat dynamics of a building using stochastic differential equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Madsen, Henrik; Hansen, Lars Henrik
2000-01-01
This paper describes the continuous time modelling of the heat dynamics of a building. The considered building is a residential like test house divided into two test rooms with a water based central heating. Each test room is divided into thermal zones in order to describe both short and long term...... variations. Besides modelling the heat transfer between thermal zones, attention is put on modelling the heat input from radiators and solar radiation. The applied modelling procedure is based on collected building performance data and statistical methods. The statistical methods are used in parameter...... estimation and model validation, while physical knowledge is used in forming the model structure. The suggested lumped parameter model is thus based on thermodynamics and formulated as a system of stochastic differential equations. Due to the continuous time formulation the parameters of the model...
Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics
Bressloff, Paul C.
2010-11-03
We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli
2015-01-01
An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli
2015-06-12
An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Ryazanova, Tatyana
2018-01-01
A problem of mathematical modeling of complex stochastic processes in macroeconomics is discussed. For the description of dynamics of income and capital stock, the well-known Kaldor model of business cycles is used as a basic example. The aim of the paper is to give an overview of the variety of stochastic phenomena which occur in Kaldor model forced by additive and parametric random noise. We study a generation of small- and large-amplitude stochastic oscillations, and their mixed-mode intermittency. To analyze these phenomena, we suggest a constructive approach combining the study of the peculiarities of deterministic phase portrait, and stochastic sensitivity of attractors. We show how parametric noise can stabilize the unstable equilibrium and transform dynamics of Kaldor system from order to chaos.
Stochastic ontogenetic growth model
West, B. J.; West, D.
2012-02-01
An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.
Stochastic properties of the Friedman dynamical system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Szydlowski, M.; Heller, M.; Golda, Z.
1985-01-01
Some mathematical aspects of the stochastic cosmology are discussed in the corresponding ordinary Friedman world models. In particulare, it is shown that if the strong and Lorentz energy conditions are known, or the potential function is given, or a stochastic measure is suitably defined then the structure of the phase plane of the Friedman dynamical system is determined. 11 refs., 2 figs. (author)
Stochastic Effects in Autoimmune Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farzad Fatehi
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Among various possible causes of autoimmune disease, an important role is played by infections that can result in a breakdown of immune tolerance, primarily through the mechanism of “molecular mimicry”. In this paper we propose and analyse a stochastic model of immune response to a viral infection and subsequent autoimmunity, with account for the populations of T cells with different activation thresholds, regulatory T cells, and cytokines. We show analytically and numerically how stochasticity can result in sustained oscillations around deterministically stable steady states, and we also investigate stochastic dynamics in the regime of bi-stability. These results provide a possible explanation for experimentally observed variations in the progression of autoimmune disease. Computations of the variance of stochastic fluctuations provide practically important insights into how the size of these fluctuations depends on various biological parameters, and this also gives a headway for comparison with experimental data on variation in the observed numbers of T cells and organ cells affected by infection.
Bhattacharyay, A.
2018-03-01
An alternative equilibrium stochastic dynamics for a Brownian particle in inhomogeneous space is derived. Such a dynamics can model the motion of a complex molecule in its conformation space when in equilibrium with a uniform heat bath. The derivation is done by a simple generalization of the formulation due to Zwanzig for a Brownian particle in homogeneous heat bath. We show that, if the system couples to different number of bath degrees of freedom at different conformations then the alternative model gets derived. We discuss results of an experiment by Faucheux and Libchaber which probably has indicated possible limitation of the Boltzmann distribution as equilibrium distribution of a Brownian particle in inhomogeneous space and propose experimental verification of the present theory using similar methods.
Dynamics of a stochastic HIV-1 infection model with logistic growth
Jiang, Daqing; Liu, Qun; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Xia, Peiyan
2017-03-01
This paper is concerned with a stochastic HIV-1 infection model with logistic growth. Firstly, by constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the solution to the HIV-1 infection model. Then we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the infection. The stationary distribution shows that the infection can become persistent in vivo.
Stochastic two-delay differential model of delayed visual feedback effects on postural dynamics.
Boulet, Jason; Balasubramaniam, Ramesh; Daffertshofer, Andreas; Longtin, André
2010-01-28
We report on experiments and modelling involving the 'visuo-postural control loop' in the upright stance. We experimentally manipulated an artificial delay to the visual feedback during standing, presented at delays ranging from 0 to 1 s in increments of 250 ms. Using stochastic delay differential equations, we explicitly modelled the centre-of-pressure (COP) and centre-of-mass (COM) dynamics with two independent delay terms for vision and proprioception. A novel 'drifting fixed point' hypothesis was used to describe the fluctuations of the COM with the COP being modelled as a faster, corrective process of the COM. The model was in good agreement with the data in terms of probability density functions, power spectral densities, short- and long-term correlations (Hurst exponents) as well the critical time between the two ranges. This journal is © 2010 The Royal Society
Stochastic dynamical model of a growing citation network based on a self-exciting point process.
Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin
2012-08-31
We put under experimental scrutiny the preferential attachment model that is commonly accepted as a generating mechanism of the scale-free complex networks. To this end we chose a citation network of physics papers and traced the citation history of 40,195 papers published in one year. Contrary to common belief, we find that the citation dynamics of the individual papers follows the superlinear preferential attachment, with the exponent α=1.25-1.3. Moreover, we show that the citation process cannot be described as a memoryless Markov chain since there is a substantial correlation between the present and recent citation rates of a paper. Based on our findings we construct a stochastic growth model of the citation network, perform numerical simulations based on this model and achieve an excellent agreement with the measured citation distributions.
Statistical validation of stochastic models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hunter, N.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Engineering Science and Analysis Div.; Barney, P.; Paez, T.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Experimental Structural Dynamics Dept.; Ferregut, C.; Perez, L. [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering
1996-12-31
It is common practice in structural dynamics to develop mathematical models for system behavior, and the authors are now capable of developing stochastic models, i.e., models whose parameters are random variables. Such models have random characteristics that are meant to simulate the randomness in characteristics of experimentally observed systems. This paper suggests a formal statistical procedure for the validation of mathematical models of stochastic systems when data taken during operation of the stochastic system are available. The statistical characteristics of the experimental system are obtained using the bootstrap, a technique for the statistical analysis of non-Gaussian data. The authors propose a procedure to determine whether or not a mathematical model is an acceptable model of a stochastic system with regard to user-specified measures of system behavior. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the technique.
Stochastic Thermodynamics: A Dynamical Systems Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tanmay Rajpurohit
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an energy-based, large-scale dynamical system model driven by Markov diffusion processes to present a unified framework for statistical thermodynamics predicated on a stochastic dynamical systems formalism. Specifically, using a stochastic state space formulation, we develop a nonlinear stochastic compartmental dynamical system model characterized by energy conservation laws that is consistent with statistical thermodynamic principles. In particular, we show that the difference between the average supplied system energy and the average stored system energy for our stochastic thermodynamic model is a martingale with respect to the system filtration. In addition, we show that the average stored system energy is equal to the mean energy that can be extracted from the system and the mean energy that can be delivered to the system in order to transfer it from a zero energy level to an arbitrary nonempty subset in the state space over a finite stopping time.
Kemper, A; Nishino, T; Schadschneider, A; Zittartz, J
2003-01-01
We develop a new variant of the recently introduced stochastic transfer matrix DMRG which we call stochastic light-cone corner-transfer-matrix DMRG (LCTMRG). It is a numerical method to compute dynamic properties of one-dimensional stochastic processes. As suggested by its name, the LCTMRG is a modification of the corner-transfer-matrix DMRG, adjusted by an additional causality argument. As an example, two reaction-diffusion models, the diffusion-annihilation process and the branch-fusion process are studied and compared with exact data and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the capability and accuracy of the new method. The number of possible Trotter steps of more than 10 sup 5 shows a considerable improvement on the old stochastic TMRG algorithm.
Computational methods in stochastic dynamics
Papadrakakis, Manolis; Papadopoulos, Vissarion
2011-01-01
Covering what is an emerging frontier in research, this book focuses on advanced computational methods and software tools. These can be of huge assistance in tackling complex problems in stochastic dynamic and seismic analysis as well as structure design.
Variational principles for stochastic fluid dynamics.
Holm, Darryl D
2015-04-08
This paper derives stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) for fluid dynamics from a stochastic variational principle (SVP). The paper proceeds by taking variations in the SVP to derive stochastic Stratonovich fluid equations; writing their Itô representation; and then investigating the properties of these stochastic fluid models in comparison with each other, and with the corresponding deterministic fluid models. The circulation properties of the stochastic Stratonovich fluid equations are found to closely mimic those of the deterministic ideal fluid models. As with deterministic ideal flows, motion along the stochastic Stratonovich paths also preserves the helicity of the vortex field lines in incompressible stochastic flows. However, these Stratonovich properties are not apparent in the equivalent Itô representation, because they are disguised by the quadratic covariation drift term arising in the Stratonovich to Itô transformation. This term is a geometric generalization of the quadratic covariation drift term already found for scalar densities in Stratonovich's famous 1966 paper. The paper also derives motion equations for two examples of stochastic geophysical fluid dynamics; namely, the Euler-Boussinesq and quasi-geostropic approximations.
Variational principles for stochastic fluid dynamics
Holm, Darryl D.
2015-01-01
This paper derives stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) for fluid dynamics from a stochastic variational principle (SVP). The paper proceeds by taking variations in the SVP to derive stochastic Stratonovich fluid equations; writing their Itô representation; and then investigating the properties of these stochastic fluid models in comparison with each other, and with the corresponding deterministic fluid models. The circulation properties of the stochastic Stratonovich fluid equations are found to closely mimic those of the deterministic ideal fluid models. As with deterministic ideal flows, motion along the stochastic Stratonovich paths also preserves the helicity of the vortex field lines in incompressible stochastic flows. However, these Stratonovich properties are not apparent in the equivalent Itô representation, because they are disguised by the quadratic covariation drift term arising in the Stratonovich to Itô transformation. This term is a geometric generalization of the quadratic covariation drift term already found for scalar densities in Stratonovich's famous 1966 paper. The paper also derives motion equations for two examples of stochastic geophysical fluid dynamics; namely, the Euler–Boussinesq and quasi-geostropic approximations. PMID:27547083
Stochastic dynamics of phase singularities under ventricular fibrillation in 2D Beeler-Reuter model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akio Suzuki
2011-09-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of ventricular fibrillation (VF has been studied extensively, and the initiation mechanism of VF has been elucidated to some extent. However, the stochastic dynamical nature of sustained VF remains unclear so far due to the complexity of high dimensional chaos in a heterogeneous system. In this paper, various statistical mechanical properties of sustained VF are studied numerically in 2D Beeler-Reuter-Drouhard-Roberge (BRDR model with normal and modified ionic current conductance. The nature of sustained VF is analyzed by measuring various fluctuations of spatial phase singularity (PS such as velocity, lifetime, the rates of birth and death. It is found that the probability density function (pdf for lifetime of PSs is independent of system size. It is also found that the hyper-Gamma distribution serves as a universal pdf for the counting number of PSs for various system sizes and various parameters of our model tissue under VF. Further, it is demonstrated that the nonlinear Langevin equation associated with a hyper-Gamma process can mimic the pdf and temporal variation of the number of PSs in the 2D BRDR model.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, Maria
mode control. It is investigated how to understand and interpret solutions to models of switched systems, which are exposed to discontinuous dynamics and uncertainties (primarily) in the form of white noise. The goal is to gain knowledge about the performance of the system by interpreting the solution...
Greenwood, Priscilla E
2016-01-01
This book describes a large number of open problems in the theory of stochastic neural systems, with the aim of enticing probabilists to work on them. This includes problems arising from stochastic models of individual neurons as well as those arising from stochastic models of the activities of small and large networks of interconnected neurons. The necessary neuroscience background to these problems is outlined within the text, so readers can grasp the context in which they arise. This book will be useful for graduate students and instructors providing material and references for applying probability to stochastic neuron modeling. Methods and results are presented, but the emphasis is on questions where additional stochastic analysis may contribute neuroscience insight. An extensive bibliography is included. Dr. Priscilla E. Greenwood is a Professor Emerita in the Department of Mathematics at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Lawrence M. Ward is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Brain...
Inverse stochastic-dynamic models for high-resolution Greenland ice core records
Boers, Niklas; Chekroun, Mickael D.; Liu, Honghu; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Svensson, Anders; Bigler, Matthias; Ghil, Michael
2017-12-01
Proxy records from Greenland ice cores have been studied for several decades, yet many open questions remain regarding the climate variability encoded therein. Here, we use a Bayesian framework for inferring inverse, stochastic-dynamic models from δ18O and dust records of unprecedented, subdecadal temporal resolution. The records stem from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP), and we focus on the time interval 59-22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the dynamical characteristics of both the δ18O and dust proxy records, including the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, as well as statistical properties such as probability density functions, waiting times and power spectra, with no need for any external forcing. The crucial ingredients for capturing these properties are (i) high-resolution training data, (ii) cubic drift terms, (iii) nonlinear coupling terms between the δ18O and dust time series, and (iv) non-Markovian contributions that represent short-term memory effects.
Stochastic dynamics and control
Sun, Jian-Qiao; Zaslavsky, George
2006-01-01
This book is a result of many years of author's research and teaching on random vibration and control. It was used as lecture notes for a graduate course. It provides a systematic review of theory of probability, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. The feedback control is also reviewed in the book. Random vibration analyses of SDOF, MDOF and continuous structural systems are presented in a pedagogical order. The application of the random vibration theory to reliability and fatigue analysis is also discussed. Recent research results on fatigue analysis of non-Gaussian stress proc
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Ramzan Luhur
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This contribution provides the development of a stochastic lift and drag model for an airfoil FX 79-W-151A under unsteady wind inflow based on wind tunnel measurements. Here we present the integration of the stochastic model into a well-known standard BEM (Blade Element Momentum model to obtain the corresponding aerodynamic forces on a rotating blade element. The stochastic model is integrated as an alternative to static tabulated data used by classical BEM. The results show that in comparison to classical BEM, the BEM with stochastic approach additionally reflects the local force dynamics and therefore provides more information on aerodynamic forces that can be used by wind turbine simulation codes
Two tests of a stochastic dynamic programming model of daily singing routines in birds.
Thomas
1999-02-01
Many hypotheses have been put forward to account for the dawn chorus in birds. Few of these, however, are able to account for variation in song output over the whole day, or for differences in daily singing routines between species, individuals, seasons and environmental conditions. One hypothesis that does offer a more general explanation is based on a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model of daily singing routines. This model relates the relative costs and benefits of feeding and singing at different times of day to the size of a bird's fat reserves and calculates the optimal daily routines of singing and foraging that will maximize the amount that the bird can sing while avoiding starvation. The use of SDP models in behavioural ecology has become well established, but they remain largely untested empirically. I tested two predictions of the SDP model of daily routines of singing, using free-living European robins Erithacus rubecula. The results supported both predictions: (1) food supplementation causing unpredictable short-term increases in foraging success increased subsequent song output; and (2) changes in ambient temperature were positively associated with changes in subsequent song output. Copyright 1999 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.
Stochastic dynamics of cancer initiation
Foo, Jasmine; Leder, Kevin; Michor, Franziska
2011-02-01
Most human cancer types result from the accumulation of multiple genetic and epigenetic alterations in a single cell. Once the first change (or changes) have arisen, tumorigenesis is initiated and the subsequent emergence of additional alterations drives progression to more aggressive and ultimately invasive phenotypes. Elucidation of the dynamics of cancer initiation is of importance for an understanding of tumor evolution and cancer incidence data. In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical framework to study the processes of cancer initiation. Cells at risk of accumulating oncogenic mutations are organized into small compartments of cells and proliferate according to a stochastic process. During each cell division, an (epi)genetic alteration may arise which leads to a random fitness change, drawn from a probability distribution. Cancer is initiated when a cell gains a fitness sufficiently high to escape from the homeostatic mechanisms of the cell compartment. To investigate cancer initiation during a human lifetime, a 'race' between this fitness process and the aging process of the patient is considered; the latter is modeled as a second stochastic Markov process in an aging dimension. This model allows us to investigate the dynamics of cancer initiation and its dependence on the mutational fitness distribution. Our framework also provides a methodology to assess the effects of different life expectancy distributions on lifetime cancer incidence. We apply this methodology to colorectal tumorigenesis while considering life expectancy data of the US population to inform the dynamics of the aging process. We study how the probability of cancer initiation prior to death, the time until cancer initiation, and the mutational profile of the cancer-initiating cell depends on the shape of the mutational fitness distribution and life expectancy of the population.
Dynamics of a stochastic cell-to-cell HIV-1 model with distributed delay
Ji, Chunyan; Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing
2018-02-01
In this paper, we consider a stochastic cell-to-cell HIV-1 model with distributed delay. Firstly, we show that there is a global positive solution of this model before exploring its long-time behavior. Then sufficient conditions for extinction of the disease are established. Moreover, we obtain sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution of the model by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function. The stationary distribution implies that the disease is persistent in the mean. Finally, we provide some numerical examples to illustrate theoretical results.
Dynamical Modelling, Stochastic Simulation and Optimization in the Context of Damage Tolerant Design
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergio Butkewitsch
2006-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the situation in which some form of damage is induced by cyclic mechanical stresses yielded by the vibratory motion of a system whose dynamical behaviour is, in turn, affected by the evolution of the damage. It is assumed that both phenomena, vibration and damage propagation, can be modeled by means of time depended equations of motion whose coupled solution is sought. A brief discussion about the damage tolerant design philosophy for aircraft structures is presented at the introduction, emphasizing the importance of the accurate definition of inspection intervals and, for this sake, the need of a representative damage propagation model accounting for the actual loading environment in which a structure may operate. For the purpose of illustration, the finite element model of a cantilever beam is formulated, providing that the stiffness matrix can be updated as long as a crack of an assumed initial length spreads in a given location of the beam according to a proper propagation model. This way, it is possible to track how the mechanical vibration, through its varying amplitude stress field, activates and develops the fatigue failure mechanism. Conversely, it is also possible to address how the effect of the fatigue induced stiffness degradation influences the motion of the beam, closing the loop for the analysis of a coupled vibration-degradation dynamical phenomenon. In the possession of this working model, stochastic simulation of the beam behaviour is developed, aiming at the identification of the most influential parameters and at the characterization of the probability distributions of the relevant responses of interest. The knowledge of the parameters and responses allows for the formulation of optimization problems aiming at the improvement of the beam robustness with respect to the fatigue induced stiffness degradation. The overall results are presented and analyzed, conducting to the conclusions and outline of future
Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning
Melchiors, Philipp
2015-01-01
This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.
Dynamic stochastic optimization
Ermoliev, Yuri; Pflug, Georg
2004-01-01
Uncertainties and changes are pervasive characteristics of modern systems involving interactions between humans, economics, nature and technology. These systems are often too complex to allow for precise evaluations and, as a result, the lack of proper management (control) may create significant risks. In order to develop robust strategies we need approaches which explic itly deal with uncertainties, risks and changing conditions. One rather general approach is to characterize (explicitly or implicitly) uncertainties by objec tive or subjective probabilities (measures of confidence or belief). This leads us to stochastic optimization problems which can rarely be solved by using the standard deterministic optimization and optimal control methods. In the stochastic optimization the accent is on problems with a large number of deci sion and random variables, and consequently the focus ofattention is directed to efficient solution procedures rather than to (analytical) closed-form solu tions. Objective an...
A stochastic model of the dynamics of HIV under a combination ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
combined therapeutic treatment by extending the model of HIV pathogenesis under treatment by anti-viral drugs given in ... Key words: Combined therapy, drug resistance, infectious free HIV, stochastic model. 1 Introduction ..... Writing these equations in the matrix form, we therefore obtain the matrix differential equation. ∂.
Drummond, Jen; Davies-Colley, Rob; Stott, Rebecca; Sukias, James; Nagels, John; Sharp, Alice; Packman, Aaron
2014-05-01
Transport dynamics of microbial cells and organic fine particles are important to stream ecology and biogeochemistry. Cells and particles continuously deposit and resuspend during downstream transport owing to a variety of processes including gravitational settling, interactions with in-stream structures or biofilms at the sediment-water interface, and hyporheic exchange and filtration within underlying sediments. Deposited cells and particles are also resuspended following increases in streamflow. Fine particle retention influences biogeochemical processing of substrates and nutrients (C, N, P), while remobilization of pathogenic microbes during flood events presents a hazard to downstream uses such as water supplies and recreation. We are conducting studies to gain insights into the dynamics of fine particles and microbes in streams, with a campaign of experiments and modeling. The results improve understanding of fine sediment transport, carbon cycling, nutrient spiraling, and microbial hazards in streams. We developed a stochastic model to describe the transport and retention of fine particles and microbes in rivers that accounts for hyporheic exchange and transport through porewaters, reversible filtration within the streambed, and microbial inactivation in the water column and subsurface. This model framework is an advance over previous work in that it incorporates detailed transport and retention processes that are amenable to measurement. Solute, particle, and microbial transport were observed both locally within sediment and at the whole-stream scale. A multi-tracer whole-stream injection experiment compared the transport and retention of a conservative solute, fluorescent fine particles, and the fecal indicator bacterium Escherichia coli. Retention occurred within both the underlying sediment bed and stands of submerged macrophytes. The results demonstrate that the combination of local measurements, whole-stream tracer experiments, and advanced modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Argentiero, Amedeo; Bovi, Maurizio; Cerqueti, Roy
2016-01-01
This paper examines psycho-induced overconsumption in a dynamic stochastic context. As emphasized by well-established psychological results, these psycho-distortions derive from a decision making based on simple rules-of-thumb, not on analytically sounded optimizations. To our end, we therefore compare two New Keynesian models. The first is populated by optimizing Muth-rational agents and acts as the normative benchmark. The other is a “psycho-perturbed” version of the benchmark that allows for the potential presence of overoptimism and, hence, of overconsumption. The parameters of these models are estimated through a Bayesian-type procedure, and performances are evaluated by employing an entropy measure. Such methodologies are particularly appropriate here since they take in full consideration the complexity generated by the randomness of the considered systems. In particular, they let to derive a not negligible information on the size and on the cyclical properties of the biases. In line with cognitive psychology suggestions our evidence shows that the overoptimism/overconsumption is: widespread—it is detected in nation-wide data; persistent—it emerges in full-sample estimations; it moves according to the expected cyclical behavior—larger in booms, and it disappears in crises. Moreover, by taking into account the effect of these psycho-biases, the model fits actual data better than the benchmark. All considered, then, enhancing the existing literature our findings: i) sustain the importance of inserting psychological distortions in macroeconomic models and ii) underline that system dynamics and psycho biases have statistically significant and economically important connections.
Stochastic dynamics of new inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakao, Ken-ichi; Nambu, Yasusada; Sasaki, Misao.
1988-07-01
We investigate thoroughly the dynamics of an inflation-driving scalar field in terms of an extended version of the stochastic approach proposed by Starobinsky and discuss the spacetime structure of the inflationary universe. To avoid any complications which might arise due to quantum gravity, we concentrate our discussions on the new inflationary universe scenario in which all the energy scales involved are well below the planck mass. The investigation is done both analytically and numerically. In particular, we present a full numerical analysis of the stochastic scalar field dynamics on the phase space. Then implications of the results are discussed. (author)
Brodin, Anders; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nord, Andreas
2017-09-01
Several species of small birds are resident in boreal forests where environmental temperatures can be -20 to -30 °C, or even lower, in winter. As winter days are short, and food is scarce, winter survival is a challenge for small endothermic animals. A bird of this size will have to gain almost 10% of its lean body mass in fat every day to sustain overnight metabolism. Birds such as parids (titmice and chickadees) can use facultative hypothermia, a process in which body temperature is actively down-regulated to a specific level, to reduce heat loss and thus save energy. During cold winter nights, these birds may decrease body temperature from the normal from 42 ° down to 35 °C, or even lower in some species. However, birds are unable to move in this deep hypothermic state, making it a risky strategy if predators are around. Why, then, do small northern birds enter a potentially dangerous physiological state for a relatively small reduction in energy expenditure? We used stochastic dynamic programming to investigate this. Our model suggests that the use of nocturnal hypothermia at night is paramount in these biomes, as it would increase winter survival for a small northern bird by 58% over a winter of 100 days. Our model also explains the phenomenon known as winter fattening, and its relationship to thermoregulation, in northern birds.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Xiaobing; Fan Ying; Wei Yiming
2009-01-01
China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently being prepared. But how large the optimal stockpile size for China should be, what the best acquisition strategies are, how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs, and other related issues still need to be studied in detail. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing SPRs to evaluate the optimal SPR policy for China. Using this model, empirical results are presented for the optimal size of China's SPR and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases. The results show that with comprehensive consideration, the optimal SPR size for China is around 320 million barrels. This size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017, three years earlier than the national goal, which implies that the need for China to fill the SPR is probably more pressing; the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities. The information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers.
Cushman, John H.
1987-04-01
In a recent review article, G. Sposito et al. (1986) examined the various stochastic theories which are concerned with transport of solutes in porous media. In this short note we expand on their discussion to include several topics which had been omitted. We begin by looking at two definitions of probability theory and their relation to the concept of an ensemble. An REV ensemble of soils is defined and examined. The concept of ergodicity is reviewed, and it is pointed out that most stochastic models are theoretically unverifiable. The relationship between scale of measurement and stochasticity is briefly reviewed, and an equation that combines the two concepts is presented.
Stochastic Models of Evolution
Bezruchko, Boris P.; Smirnov, Dmitry A.
To continue the discussion of randomness given in Sect. 2.2.1, we briefly touch on stochastic models of temporal evolution (random processes). They can be specified either via explicit definition of their statistical properties (probability density functions, correlation functions, etc., Sects. 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3) or via stochastic difference or differential equations. Some of the most widely known equations, their properties and applications are discussed in Sects. 4.4 and 4.5.
Boundary effects on population dynamics in stochastic lattice Lotka-Volterra models
Heiba, Bassel; Chen, Sheng; Täuber, Uwe C.
2018-02-01
We investigate spatially inhomogeneous versions of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model for predator-prey competition and coexistence by means of Monte Carlo simulations on a two-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions. To study boundary effects for this paradigmatic population dynamics system, we employ a simulation domain split into two patches: Upon setting the predation rates at two distinct values, one half of the system resides in an absorbing state where only the prey survives, while the other half attains a stable coexistence state wherein both species remain active. At the domain boundary, we observe a marked enhancement of the predator population density. The predator correlation length displays a minimum at the boundary, before reaching its asymptotic constant value deep in the active region. The frequency of the population oscillations appears only very weakly affected by the existence of two distinct domains, in contrast to their attenuation rate, which assumes its largest value there. We also observe that boundary effects become less prominent as the system is successively divided into subdomains in a checkerboard pattern, with two different reaction rates assigned to neighboring patches. When the domain size becomes reduced to the scale of the correlation length, the mean population densities attain values that are very similar to those in a disordered system with randomly assigned reaction rates drawn from a bimodal distribution.
Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming
Ng, Hok K.; Morando, Alex; Grabbe, Shon
2010-01-01
Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.
D'Onofrio, Giuseppe; Pirozzi, Enrica
2017-05-01
We consider a stochastic differential equation in a strip, with coefficients suitably chosen to describe the acto-myosin interaction subject to time-varying forces. By simulating trajectories of the stochastic dynamics via an Euler discretization-based algorithm, we fit experimental data and determine the values of involved parameters. The steps of the myosin are represented by the exit events from the strip. Motivated by these results, we propose a specific stochastic model based on the corresponding time-inhomogeneous Gauss-Markov and diffusion process evolving between two absorbing boundaries. We specify the mean and covariance functions of the stochastic modeling process taking into account time-dependent forces including the effect of an external load. We accurately determine the probability density function (pdf) of the first exit time (FET) from the strip by solving a system of two non singular second-type Volterra integral equations via a numerical quadrature. We provide numerical estimations of the mean of FET as approximations of the dwell-time of the proteins dynamics. The percentage of backward steps is given in agreement to experimental data. Numerical and simulation results are compared and discussed.
Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity
Thual, S.; Majda, A.; Chen, N.
2017-12-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple ENSO model was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity and intermittency in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase-locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad-hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Niño events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Niño regions, both the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Niño, the central Pacific El Niño as well as La Niña show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.
The dynamics of stochastic processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Basse-O'Connor, Andreas
In the present thesis the dynamics of stochastic processes is studied with a special attention to the semimartingale property. This is mainly motivated by the fact that semimartingales provide the class of the processes for which it is possible to define a reasonable stochastic calculus due...... to the Bichteler-Dellacherie Theorem. The semimartingale property of Gaussian processes is characterized in terms of their covariance function, spectral measure and spectral representation. In addition, representation and expansion of filtration results are provided as well. Special attention is given to moving...
Stochastic models, estimation, and control
Maybeck, Peter S
1982-01-01
This volume builds upon the foundations set in Volumes 1 and 2. Chapter 13 introduces the basic concepts of stochastic control and dynamic programming as the fundamental means of synthesizing optimal stochastic control laws.
Model of Forecasting the Social News Events on the Basis of Stochastic Dynamics Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhukov D.O.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available For a description of the information space it is introduced a vector representation of the constituent text documents that are bound by the events described in the timeline. The predicted event is also represented by a vector obtained on the base of its text description. The mean value of projections of the information space in the direction of the vector of predicted events at different time points is considered as a set of information system states. It is also entered the change values of states. To describe transitions between states is used a probabilistic approach and the difference transition scheme. This makes it possible to get the dependence of the time for the value of the probability density for the event “detection information system in a state” in the form of a second order differential equation. On the basis of this equation is formulated and solved the boundary problem. Carried out by the authors the analysis of the stochastic dynamics of achievement a threshold of realization of news events has allowed the establishing of the ability to increase the probability of transition almost simultaneously with the beginning of the process of the news cluster structure changing. This is due to the presence of the memory of previous states in the information system and the possibility of self-description, as a result of accounting in the differential model information processes on the basis of the second derivative over time. In addition, the proposed model demonstrates the possibility of sudden changes in the probability of crossing the threshold of events and takes into account the presence of oscillations in her behavior. Based on the model developed it is proposed the algorithm for analysis of news clusters relationship in the information field with the possibility of occurrence of the predicted event, and determined the possible time of its implementation.
A stochastic model for magnetic dynamics in single-molecule magnets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
López-Ruiz, R., E-mail: rlruiz@ifi.unicamp.br [Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, 13083-859 Campinas (SP) (Brazil); Almeida, P.T. [Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, 13083-859 Campinas (SP) (Brazil); Vaz, M.G.F. [Instituto de Química, Universidade Federal Fluminense, 24020-150 Niterói (RJ) (Brazil); Novak, M.A. [Instituto de Física - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro (RJ) (Brazil); Béron, F.; Pirota, K.R. [Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, 13083-859 Campinas (SP) (Brazil)
2016-04-01
Hysteresis and magnetic relaxation curves were performed on double well potential systems with quantum tunneling possibility via stochastic simulations. Simulation results are compared with experimental ones using the Mn{sub 12} single-molecule magnet, allowing us to introduce time dependence in the model. Despite being a simple simulation model, it adequately reproduces the phenomenology of a thermally activated quantum tunneling and can be extended to other systems with different parameters. Assuming competition between the reversal modes, thermal (over) and tunneling (across) the anisotropy barrier, a separation of classical and quantum contributions to relaxation time can be obtained. - Highlights: • Single-molecule magnets are modeled using a simple stochastic approach. • Simulation reproduces thermally-activated tunnelling magnetization reversal features. • The time is introduced in hysteresis and relaxation simulations. • We can separate the quantum and classical contributions to decay time.
Emery, B. M.; Washburn, L.; Mezic, I.; Loire, S.; Arbabi, H.; Ohlmann, C.; Harlan, J.
2016-02-01
We apply several analysis methods to HF radar ocean surface current maps to investigate improvements in trajectory modeling. Results from a Lagrangian Stochastic Model (LSM) are compared with methods based on dynamical systems theory: hypergraphs and Koopman mode analysis. The LSM produces trajectories by integrating Eulerian fields from the HF radar, and accounts for sub-grid scale velocity variability by including a random component based on the Lagrangian decorrelation time. Hypergraphs also integrate the HF radar maps in time, showing areas of strain, strain-rotation, and mixing, by plotting the relative strengths of the eigenvalues of the gradient of the time-averaged Lagrangian velocity. Koopman mode analysis decomposes the velocity field into modes of variability, similarly to EOF or a Fourier analysis, though each Koopman mode varies in time with a distinct frequency. Each method simulates oil drift from a the oil spill of May, 2015 that occurred within the coverage area of the HF radars, in the Santa Barbara Channel near Refugio Beach, CA. Preliminary results indicate some skill in determining the transport of oil when compare to publicly available observations of oil in the Santa Barbara Channel. These simulations have not shown a connection between the Refugio spill site and oil observations in the Santa Monica Bay, near Los Angeles CA, though accumulation zones shown by the hypergraphs correlate in time and space with these observations. Improvements in the HF radar coverage and accuracy were observed during the spill by the deployment of an additional HF radar site near Gaviota, CA. Presently we are collecting observations of oil on beaches and in the ocean, determining the role of winds in the oil movement, and refining the methods. Some HF radar data is being post-processed to incorporate recent antenna calibrations for sites in Santa Monica Bay. We will evaluate effects of the newly processed data on analysis results.
From Complex to Simple: Interdisciplinary Stochastic Models
Mazilu, D. A.; Zamora, G.; Mazilu, I.
2012-01-01
We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions…
Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen
2015-04-01
Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating
Stochastic dynamics and combinatorial optimization
Ovchinnikov, Igor V.; Wang, Kang L.
2017-11-01
Natural dynamics is often dominated by sudden nonlinear processes such as neuroavalanches, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, etc., that exhibit scale-free statistics much in the spirit of the logarithmic Ritcher scale for earthquake magnitudes. On phase diagrams, stochastic dynamical systems (DSs) exhibiting this type of dynamics belong to the finite-width phase (N-phase for brevity) that precedes ordinary chaotic behavior and that is known under such names as noise-induced chaos, self-organized criticality, dynamical complexity, etc. Within the recently proposed supersymmetric theory of stochastic dynamics, the N-phase can be roughly interpreted as the noise-induced “overlap” between integrable and chaotic deterministic dynamics. As a result, the N-phase dynamics inherits the properties of the both. Here, we analyze this unique set of properties and conclude that the N-phase DSs must naturally be the most efficient optimizers: on one hand, N-phase DSs have integrable flows with well-defined attractors that can be associated with candidate solutions and, on the other hand, the noise-induced attractor-to-attractor dynamics in the N-phase is effectively chaotic or aperiodic so that a DS must avoid revisiting solutions/attractors thus accelerating the search for the best solution. Based on this understanding, we propose a method for stochastic dynamical optimization using the N-phase DSs. This method can be viewed as a hybrid of the simulated and chaotic annealing methods. Our proposition can result in a new generation of hardware devices for efficient solution of various search and/or combinatorial optimization problems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cihan Oguz
Full Text Available In this study, we focus on a recent stochastic budding yeast cell cycle model. First, we estimate the model parameters using extensive data sets: phenotypes of 110 genetic strains, single cell statistics of wild type and cln3 strains. Optimization of stochastic model parameters is achieved by an automated algorithm we recently used for a deterministic cell cycle model. Next, in order to test the predictive ability of the stochastic model, we focus on a recent experimental study in which forced periodic expression of CLN2 cyclin (driven by MET3 promoter in cln3 background has been used to synchronize budding yeast cell colonies. We demonstrate that the model correctly predicts the experimentally observed synchronization levels and cell cycle statistics of mother and daughter cells under various experimental conditions (numerical data that is not enforced in parameter optimization, in addition to correctly predicting the qualitative changes in size control due to forced CLN2 expression. Our model also generates a novel prediction: under frequent CLN2 expression pulses, G1 phase duration is bimodal among small-born cells. These cells originate from daughters with extended budded periods due to size control during the budded period. This novel prediction and the experimental trends captured by the model illustrate the interplay between cell cycle dynamics, synchronization of cell colonies, and size control in budding yeast.
Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O
2016-06-01
Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.
Application of users’ light-switch stochastic models to dynamic energy simulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Camisassi, V.; Fabi, V.; Andersen, Rune Korsholm
2015-01-01
deterministic inputs, due to the uncertain nature of human behaviour. In this paper, new stochastic models of users’ interaction with artificial lighting systems are developed and implemented in the energy simulation software IDA ICE. They were developed from field measurements in an office building in Prague......The design of an innovative building should include building overall energy flows estimation. They are principally related to main six influencing factors (IEA-ECB Annex 53): climate, building envelope and equipment, operation and maintenance, occupant behaviour and indoor environment conditions....... Consequently, energy-related occupant behaviour should be taken into account by energy simulation software. Previous researches (Bourgeois et al. 2006, Buso 2012, Fabi 2012) already revealed the differences in terms of energy loads between considering occupants' behaviour as stochastic processes rather than...
Dynamical and hamiltonian dilations of stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baumgartner, B.; Gruemm, H.-R.
1982-01-01
This is a study of the problem, which stochastic processes could arise from dynamical systems by loss of information. The notions of ''dilation'' and ''approximate dilation'' of a stochastic process are introduced to give exact definitions of this particular relationship. It is shown that every generalized stochastic process is approximately dilatable by a sequence of dynamical systems, but for stochastic processes in full generality one needs nets. (Author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin Hai; Shuai, J W
2010-01-01
A stochastic spatial model based on the Monte Carlo approach is developed to study the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We aim to propose a more detailed and realistic simulation frame by incorporating many important features of HIV dynamics, which include infections, replications and mutations of viruses, antigen recognitions, activations and proliferations of lymphocytes, and diffusions, encounters and interactions of virions and lymphocytes. Our model successfully reproduces the three-phase pattern observed in HIV infection, and the simulation results for the time distribution from infection to AIDS onset are also in good agreement with the clinical data. The interactions of viruses and the immune system in all the three phases are investigated. We assess the relative importance of various immune system components in the acute phase. The dynamics of how the two important factors, namely the viral diversity and the asymmetric battle between HIV and the immune system, result in AIDS are investigated in detail with the model.
Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors
Naous, Rawan
2015-10-26
Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.
Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics
Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea
2010-05-01
We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems
2016-01-01
published in non-peer-reviewed journals (N/A for none) The dynamics of stochastic gradient algorithms (submitted); Noisy Hegselmann- Krause Systems...algorithms for big data applications. (2) We studied stochastic dynamics of polymer systems in the mean field limit. (3) We studied noisy Hegselmann- Krause
Identifiability in stochastic models
1992-01-01
The problem of identifiability is basic to all statistical methods and data analysis, occurring in such diverse areas as Reliability Theory, Survival Analysis, and Econometrics, where stochastic modeling is widely used. Mathematics dealing with identifiability per se is closely related to the so-called branch of ""characterization problems"" in Probability Theory. This book brings together relevant material on identifiability as it occurs in these diverse fields.
Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar
2018-02-01
In this paper, we study the dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination and double diseases which make the research more complex. The environment variability in this paper is characterized by white noise and Lévy noise. We establish sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the two epidemic diseases. It is shown that: (i) time delay and Lévy noise have important effects on the persistence and extinction of epidemic diseases; (ii) two diseases can coexist under certain conditions.
Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P
2008-01-01
Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenlei Bai
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.
Stochastic beam dynamics in storage rings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pauluhn, A.
1993-12-01
In this thesis several approaches to stochastic dynamics in storage rings are investigated. In the first part the theory of stochastic differential equations and Fokker-Planck equations is used to describe the processes which have been assumed to be Markov processes. The mathematical theory of Markov processes is well known. Nevertheless, analytical solutions can be found only in special cases and numerical algorithms are required. Several numerical integration schemes for stochastic differential equations will therefore be tested in analytical solvable examples and then applied to examples from accelerator physics. In particular the stochastically perturbed synchrotron motion is treated. For the special case of a double rf system several perturbation theoretical methods for deriving the Fokker-Planck equation in the action variable are used and compared with numerical results. The second part is concerned with the dynamics of electron storage rings. Due to the synchrotron radiation the electron motion is influenced by damping and exciting forces. An algorithm for the computation of the density function in the phase space of such a dissipative stochastically excited system is introduced. The density function contains all information of a process, e.g. it determines the beam dimensions and the lifetime of a stored electron beam. The new algorithm consists in calculating a time propagator for the density function. By means of this propagator the time evolution of the density is modelled very computing time efficient. The method is applied to simple models of the beam-beam interaction (one-dimensional, round beams) and the results of the density calculations are compared with results obtained from multiparticle tracking. Furthermore some modifications of the algorithm are introduced to improve its efficiency concerning computing time and storage requirements. Finally, extensions to two-dimensional beam-beam models are described. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hua He
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Performance evaluation of cloud computing systems studies the relationships among system configuration, system load, and performance indicators. However, such evaluation is not feasible by dint of measurement methods or simulation methods, due to the properties of cloud computing, such as large scale, diversity, and dynamics. To overcome those challenges, we present a novel Dynamic Scalable Stochastic Petri Net (DSSPN to model and analyze the performance of cloud computing systems. DSSPN can not only clearly depict system dynamic behaviors in an intuitive and efficient way but also easily discover performance deficiencies and bottlenecks of systems. In this study, we further elaborate some properties of DSSPN. In addition, we improve fair scheduling taking into consideration job diversity and resource heterogeneity. To validate the improved algorithm and the applicability of DSSPN, we conduct extensive experiments through Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP. The performance results show that the improved algorithm is better than fair scheduling in some key performance indicators, such as average throughput, response time, and average completion time.
Computational Methods in Stochastic Dynamics Volume 2
Stefanou, George; Papadopoulos, Vissarion
2013-01-01
The considerable influence of inherent uncertainties on structural behavior has led the engineering community to recognize the importance of a stochastic approach to structural problems. Issues related to uncertainty quantification and its influence on the reliability of the computational models are continuously gaining in significance. In particular, the problems of dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain system and excitation parameters have been the subject of continuous research over the last two decades as a result of the increasing availability of powerful computing resources and technology. This book is a follow up of a previous book with the same subject (ISBN 978-90-481-9986-0) and focuses on advanced computational methods and software tools which can highly assist in tackling complex problems in stochastic dynamic/seismic analysis and design of structures. The selected chapters are authored by some of the most active scholars in their respective areas and...
Uncovering wind turbine properties through two-dimensional stochastic modeling of wind dynamics.
Raischel, Frank; Scholz, Teresa; Lopes, Vitor V; Lind, Pedro G
2013-10-01
Using a method for stochastic data analysis borrowed from statistical physics, we analyze synthetic data from a Markov chain model that reproduces measurements of wind speed and power production in a wind park in Portugal. We show that our analysis retrieves indeed the power performance curve, which yields the relationship between wind speed and power production, and we discuss how this procedure can be extended for extracting unknown functional relationships between pairs of physical variables in general. We also show how specific features, such as the rated speed of the wind turbine or the descriptive wind speed statistics, can be related to the equations describing the evolution of power production and wind speed at single wind turbines.
Stochastic Subspace Modelling of Turbulence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.
2009-01-01
positive definite cross-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order......, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.......Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper...
Mean and quasideterministic equivalence for linear stochastic dynamics.
Hanson, F B; Ryan, D
1989-03-01
In linear, stochastic dynamics it is shown that the quasideterministic population size is equivalent to the mean population size. The quasideterministic dynamics are defined by the conditional infinitesimal mean of the process. The stochastic component of the dynamics includes both Gaussian and Poisson white noise, with amplitude coefficients proportional to the population size. Generalizations are given for nonautonomous coefficients and for distributed Poisson jump amplitudes. A counter example--an exactly integrable nonlinear jump model--shows that the equivalence result does not hold for nonlinear stochastic dynamics.
Dynamics of non-holonomic systems with stochastic transport
Holm, D. D.; Putkaradze, V.
2018-01-01
This paper formulates a variational approach for treating observational uncertainty and/or computational model errors as stochastic transport in dynamical systems governed by action principles under non-holonomic constraints. For this purpose, we derive, analyse and numerically study the example of an unbalanced spherical ball rolling under gravity along a stochastic path. Our approach uses the Hamilton-Pontryagin variational principle, constrained by a stochastic rolling condition, which we show is equivalent to the corresponding stochastic Lagrange-d'Alembert principle. In the example of the rolling ball, the stochasticity represents uncertainty in the observation and/or error in the computational simulation of the angular velocity of rolling. The influence of the stochasticity on the deterministically conserved quantities is investigated both analytically and numerically. Our approach applies to a wide variety of stochastic, non-holonomically constrained systems, because it preserves the mathematical properties inherited from the variational principle.
Geometric integrators for stochastic rigid body dynamics
Tretyakov, Mikhail
2016-01-05
Geometric integrators play an important role in simulating dynamical systems on long time intervals with high accuracy. We will illustrate geometric integration ideas within the stochastic context, mostly on examples of stochastic thermostats for rigid body dynamics. The talk will be mainly based on joint recent work with Rusland Davidchak and Tom Ouldridge.
A stochastic model of enzyme kinetics
Stefanini, Marianne; Newman, Timothy; McKane, Alan
2003-10-01
Enzyme kinetics is generally modeled by deterministic rate equations, and in the simplest case leads to the well-known Michaelis-Menten equation. It is plausible that stochastic effects will play an important role at low enzyme concentrations. We have addressed this by constructing a simple stochastic model which can be exactly solved in the steady-state. Throughout a wide range of parameter values Michaelis-Menten dynamics is replaced by a new and simple theoretical result.
Cartling, Bo
1985-11-01
The principles of biological energy transduction are discussed by means of a mathematical model of a donor-acceptor system of electron transfer enzymes in which electronic and conformational states are coupled. The internal nuclear motion of the enzymes is considered to be composed of transitions between local potential energy wells, which define conformational states, and vibrations within these. The conformational transitions are treated as a stochastic process of the diffusion type on a conformational potential energy surface. Dissipative processes are avoided by restricting electron transfer with respect to conformational states and molecular mechanisms of such electron gating are discussed. Different types of transient kinetics, determined by the relative rates of electronic and conformational transitions, are demonstrated in terms of probability density functions, which describe the probability for the system to be in different electronic and conformational states as a function of time. The experimental basis for the concepts and mechanisms introduced is discussed and further experiments are proposed. The applicability of the mathematical model to other systems is indicated.
Zheng, Weihua; Andrec, Michael; Gallicchio, Emilio; Levy, Ronald M
2009-08-27
We present an approach to recover kinetics from a simplified protein folding model at different temperatures using the combined power of replica exchange (RE), a kinetic network, and effective stochastic dynamics. While RE simulations generate a large set of discrete states with the correct thermodynamics, kinetic information is lost due to the random exchange of temperatures. We show how we can recover the kinetics of a 2D continuous potential with an entropic barrier by using RE-generated discrete states as nodes of a kinetic network. By choosing the neighbors and the microscopic rates between the neighbors appropriately, the correct kinetics of the system can be recovered by running a kinetic simulation on the network. We fine-tune the parameters of the network by comparison with the effective drift velocities and diffusion coefficients of the system determined from short-time stochastic trajectories. One of the advantages of the kinetic network model is that the network can be built on a high-dimensional discretized state space, which can consist of multiple paths not consistent with a single reaction coordinate.
Stochastic Wake Modelling Based on POD Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Bastine
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In this work, large eddy simulation data is analysed to investigate a new stochastic modeling approach for the wake of a wind turbine. The data is generated by the large eddy simulation (LES model PALM combined with an actuator disk with rotation representing the turbine. After applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, three different stochastic models for the weighting coefficients of the POD modes are deduced resulting in three different wake models. Their performance is investigated mainly on the basis of aeroelastic simulations of a wind turbine in the wake. Three different load cases and their statistical characteristics are compared for the original LES, truncated PODs and the stochastic wake models including different numbers of POD modes. It is shown that approximately six POD modes are enough to capture the load dynamics on large temporal scales. Modeling the weighting coefficients as independent stochastic processes leads to similar load characteristics as in the case of the truncated POD. To complete this simplified wake description, we show evidence that the small-scale dynamics can be captured by adding to our model a homogeneous turbulent field. In this way, we present a procedure to derive stochastic wake models from costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD calculations or elaborated experimental investigations. These numerically efficient models provide the added value of possible long-term studies. Depending on the aspects of interest, different minimalized models may be obtained.
Path to Stochastic Stability: Comparative Analysis of Stochastic Learning Dynamics in Games
Jaleel, Hassan
2018-04-08
Stochastic stability is a popular solution concept for stochastic learning dynamics in games. However, a critical limitation of this solution concept is its inability to distinguish between different learning rules that lead to the same steady-state behavior. We address this limitation for the first time and develop a framework for the comparative analysis of stochastic learning dynamics with different update rules but same steady-state behavior. We present the framework in the context of two learning dynamics: Log-Linear Learning (LLL) and Metropolis Learning (ML). Although both of these dynamics have the same stochastically stable states, LLL and ML correspond to different behavioral models for decision making. Moreover, we demonstrate through an example setup of sensor coverage game that for each of these dynamics, the paths to stochastically stable states exhibit distinctive behaviors. Therefore, we propose multiple criteria to analyze and quantify the differences in the short and medium run behavior of stochastic learning dynamics. We derive and compare upper bounds on the expected hitting time to the set of Nash equilibria for both LLL and ML. For the medium to long-run behavior, we identify a set of tools from the theory of perturbed Markov chains that result in a hierarchical decomposition of the state space into collections of states called cycles. We compare LLL and ML based on the proposed criteria and develop invaluable insights into the comparative behavior of the two dynamics.
Weather Derivatives and Stochastic Modelling of Temperature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fred Espen Benth
2011-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a continuous-time autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics with volatility being the product of a seasonal function and a stochastic process. We use the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for the stochastic volatility. The proposed temperature dynamics is flexible enough to model temperature data accurately, and at the same time being analytically tractable. Futures prices for commonly traded contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on indices like cooling- and heating-degree days and cumulative average temperatures are computed, as well as option prices on them.
Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model.
Funk, Sebastian; Camacho, Anton; Kucharski, Adam J; Eggo, Rosalind M; Edmunds, W John
2018-03-01
Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real time, when information on behavioural changes, interventions and routes of transmission are not readily available. Here, we present a semi-mechanistic model of infectious disease dynamics that was used in real time during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic, and show fits to a Ebola Forecasting Challenge conducted in late 2015 with simulated data mimicking the true epidemic. We assess the performance of the model in different situations and identify strengths and shortcomings of our approach. Models such as the one presented here which combine the power of mechanistic models with the flexibility to include uncertainty about the precise outbreak dynamics may be an important tool in combating future outbreaks. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A stochastic finite element model for the dynamics of globular macromolecules
Oliver, Robin C.; Read, Daniel J.; Harlen, Oliver G.; Harris, Sarah A.
2013-04-01
We describe a novel coarse-grained simulation method for modelling the dynamics of globular macromolecules, such as proteins. The macromolecule is treated as a continuum that is subject to thermal fluctuations. The model includes a non-linear treatment of elasticity and viscosity with thermal noise that is solved using finite element analysis. We have validated the method by demonstrating that the model provides average kinetic and potential energies that are in agreement with the classical equipartition theorem and that the nodal velocities have the correct Gaussian distribution. In addition, we have performed Fourier analysis on the simulation trajectories obtained for a series of linear beams to confirm that the correct average energies are present in the first two Fourier bending modes and that the probability distribution of the amplitudes of the first two Fourier modes match the theoretical results. We demonstrate spatial convergence of the model by showing that the anisotropy of the inertia tensor for a cubic mesh converges as a function of the mesh resolution. We have then used the new modelling method to simulate the thermal fluctuations of a representative protein over 500 ns timescales. Using reasonable parameters for the material properties, we have demonstrated that the overall deformation of the biomolecule is consistent with the results obtained for proteins in general from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations.
Stochastic single-molecule dynamics of synaptic membrane protein domains
Kahraman, Osman; Li, Yiwei; Haselwandter, Christoph A.
2016-09-01
Motivated by single-molecule experiments on synaptic membrane protein domains, we use a stochastic lattice model to study protein reaction and diffusion processes in crowded membranes. We find that the stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of synaptic proteins provide a simple physical mechanism for collective fluctuations in synaptic domains, the molecular turnover observed at synaptic domains, key features of the single-molecule trajectories observed for synaptic proteins, and spatially inhomogeneous protein lifetimes at the cell membrane. Our results suggest that central aspects of the single-molecule and collective dynamics observed for membrane protein domains can be understood in terms of stochastic reaction-diffusion processes at the cell membrane.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Fouchet
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.
Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems
Strubbe, S.N.
2005-01-01
In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete
Stochastic modeling of soil salinity
Suweis, S.; Porporato, A. M.; Daly, E.; van der Zee, S.; Maritan, A.; Rinaldo, A.
2010-12-01
A minimalist stochastic model of primary soil salinity is proposed, in which the rate of soil salinization is determined by the balance between dry and wet salt deposition and the intermittent leaching events caused by rainfall events. The equations for the probability density functions of salt mass and concentration are found by reducing the coupled soil moisture and salt mass balance equations to a single stochastic differential equation (generalized Langevin equation) driven by multiplicative Poisson noise. Generalized Langevin equations with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual Ito (I) or Stratonovich (S) prescription dilemma. Different interpretations lead to different results and then choosing between the I and S prescriptions is crucial to describe correctly the dynamics of the model systems. We show how this choice can be determined by physical information about the timescales involved in the process. We also show that when the multiplicative noise is at most linear in the random variable one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We then apply these results to the generalized Langevin equation that drives the salt mass dynamics. The stationary analytical solutions for the probability density functions of salt mass and concentration provide insight on the interplay of the main soil, plant and climate parameters responsible for long term soil salinization. In particular, they show the existence of two distinct regimes, one where the mean salt mass remains nearly constant (or decreases) with increasing rainfall frequency, and another where mean salt content increases markedly with increasing rainfall frequency. As a result, relatively small reductions of rainfall in drier climates may entail dramatic shifts in longterm soil salinization trends, with significant consequences, e.g. for climate change impacts on rain fed agriculture.
Stochastic Growth Models with No Discounting
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sladký, Karel
2007-01-01
Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 88-98 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic dynamics * stochastic version of the Ramsey growth model * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: AH - Economics
Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed
2018-01-01
In this paper, we develop and study a stochastic predator-prey model with stage structure for predator and Holling type II functional response. First of all, by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions to the model. Then, we obtain sufficient conditions for extinction of the predator populations in two cases, that is, the first case is that the prey population survival and the predator populations extinction; the second case is that all the prey and predator populations extinction. The existence of a stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mayzelis, Z.A.; Apostolov, S.S.; Melnyk, S.S.; Usatenko, O.V.; Yampol'skii, V.A.
2007-01-01
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys Rev Lett 2003;90:110601 is generalized to the biased case (non-equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the ith symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mayzelis, Z.A. [Department of Physics, Kharkov National University, 4 Svoboda Sq., Kharkov 61077 (Ukraine); Apostolov, S.S. [Department of Physics, Kharkov National University, 4 Svoboda Sq., Kharkov 61077 (Ukraine); Melnyk, S.S. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine); Usatenko, O.V. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine)]. E-mail: usatenko@ire.kharkov.ua; Yampol' skii, V.A. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine)
2007-10-15
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys Rev Lett 2003;90:110601 is generalized to the biased case (non-equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the ith symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed.
Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian
2013-01-01
Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...
Multiplier Models in Stochastic DEA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahnaz Mirbolouki
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA is a data-oriented performance evaluation method which has treated data as being deterministic. Throughout applications managers may encounter the data which are not recognized deterministically. In this paper a deterministic version of stochastic CCR multiplier model based on chance constrained programming approach is presented. The advantage of this method is that the stochastic essence of input-output variables has been taken into account. Using numerical example, we will demonstrate how this method works.
A stochastic model of AIDS and condom use
Dalal, Nirav; Greenhalgh, David; Mao, Xuerong
2007-01-01
In this paper we introduce stochasticity into a model of AIDS and condom use via the technique of parameter perturbation which is standard in stochastic population modelling. We show that the model established in this paper possesses non-negative solutions as desired in any population dynamics. We also carry out a detailed analysis on asymptotic stability both in probability one and in pth moment. Our results reveal that a certain type of stochastic perturbation may help to stabilise the underlying system.
Stochastic dynamics for reinfection by transmitted diseases
Barros, Alessandro S.; Pinho, Suani T. R.
2017-06-01
The use of stochastic models to study the dynamics of infectious diseases is an important tool to understand the epidemiological process. For several directly transmitted diseases, reinfection is a relevant process, which can be expressed by endogenous reactivation of the pathogen or by exogenous reinfection due to direct contact with an infected individual (with smaller reinfection rate σ β than infection rate β ). In this paper, we examine the stochastic susceptible, infected, recovered, infected (SIRI) model simulating the endogenous reactivation by a spontaneous reaction, while exogenous reinfection by a catalytic reaction. Analyzing the mean-field approximations of a site and pairs of sites, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for the particular case of exogenous reinfection, we obtained continuous phase transitions involving endemic, epidemic, and no transmission phases for the simple approach; the approach of pairs is better to describe the phase transition from endemic phase (susceptible, infected, susceptible (SIS)-like model) to epidemic phase (susceptible, infected, and removed or recovered (SIR)-like model) considering the comparison with MC results; the reinfection increases the peaks of outbreaks until the system reaches endemic phase. For the particular case of endogenous reactivation, the approach of pairs leads to a continuous phase transition from endemic phase (SIS-like model) to no transmission phase. Finally, there is no phase transition when both effects are taken into account. We hope the results of this study can be generalized for the susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed or recovered (SEIRIE) model, for which the state exposed (infected but not infectious), describing more realistically transmitted diseases such as tuberculosis. In future work, we also intend to investigate the effect of network topology on phase transitions when the SIRI model describes both transmitted diseases (σ 1 ).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi-Bin Xi
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Familial risk plays a significant role in the etiology of schizophrenia (SZ. Many studies using neuroimaging have demonstrated structural and functional alterations in relatives of SZ patients, with significant results found in diverse brain regions involving the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, caudate, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC, and hippocampus. This study investigated whether unaffected relatives of first episode SZ differ from healthy controls (HCs in effective connectivity measures among these regions. Forty-six unaffected first-degree relatives of first episode SZ patients — according to the DSM-IV — were studied. Fifty HCs were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. We used stochastic dynamic causal modeling (sDCM to estimate the directed connections between the left ACC, right ACC, left caudate, right caudate, left DLPFC, left hippocampus, and right hippocampus. We used Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA to characterize the differences. The BPA results showed hyperconnectivity from the left ACC to right hippocampus and hypoconnectivity from the right ACC to right hippocampus in SZ relatives compared to HCs. The pattern of anterior cingulate cortico-hippocampal connectivity in SZ relatives may be a familial feature of SZ risk, appearing to reflect familial susceptibility for SZ.
Wen, Xing-Chun; He, Ling-Yun
2015-08-01
There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China's housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China's economy stabilization. 1. Investment refers to fixed capital investment. 2. Housing price refers to national average housing price. Quarterly data on housing price during the period of our work are not directly available. However, monthly data of the value of sales on housing and sale volume on housing can be directly obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China. We add up the monthly data and calculate one quarter's housing price by dividing the value of housing sales by its sale volume in one quarter. 3. M2 means the broad money supply in China.
Sumin, V. I.; Smolentseva, T. E.; Belokurov, S. V.; Lankin, O. V.
2018-03-01
In the work the process of formation of trainee characteristics with their subsequent change is analyzed and analyzed. Characteristics of trainees were obtained as a result of testing for each section of information on the chosen discipline. The results obtained during testing were input to the dynamic system. The area of control actions consisting of elements of the dynamic system is formed. The limit of deterministic predictability of element trajectories in dynamical systems based on local or global attractors is revealed. The dimension of the phase space of the dynamic system is determined, which allows estimating the parameters of the initial system. On the basis of time series of observations, it is possible to determine the predictability interval of all parameters, which make it possible to determine the behavior of the system discretely in time. Then the measure of predictability will be the sum of Lyapunov’s positive indicators, which are a quantitative measure for all elements of the system. The components for the formation of an algorithm allowing to determine the correlation dimension of the attractor for known initial experimental values of the variables are revealed. The generated algorithm makes it possible to carry out an experimental study of the dynamics of changes in the trainee’s parameters with initial uncertainty.
Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur
2008-01-01
We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics
Nonlinear and stochastic dynamics in the heart
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qu, Zhilin, E-mail: zqu@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Medicine (Cardiology), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Hu, Gang [Department of Physics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Garfinkel, Alan [Department of Medicine (Cardiology), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Department of Integrative Biology and Physiology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Weiss, James N. [Department of Medicine (Cardiology), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Department of Physiology, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)
2014-10-10
In a normal human life span, the heart beats about 2–3 billion times. Under diseased conditions, a heart may lose its normal rhythm and degenerate suddenly into much faster and irregular rhythms, called arrhythmias, which may lead to sudden death. The transition from a normal rhythm to an arrhythmia is a transition from regular electrical wave conduction to irregular or turbulent wave conduction in the heart, and thus this medical problem is also a problem of physics and mathematics. In the last century, clinical, experimental, and theoretical studies have shown that dynamical theories play fundamental roles in understanding the mechanisms of the genesis of the normal heart rhythm as well as lethal arrhythmias. In this article, we summarize in detail the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics occurring in the heart and their links to normal cardiac functions and arrhythmias, providing a holistic view through integrating dynamics from the molecular (microscopic) scale, to the organelle (mesoscopic) scale, to the cellular, tissue, and organ (macroscopic) scales. We discuss what existing problems and challenges are waiting to be solved and how multi-scale mathematical modeling and nonlinear dynamics may be helpful for solving these problems.
Nonlinear and stochastic dynamics in the heart
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qu, Zhilin; Hu, Gang; Garfinkel, Alan; Weiss, James N.
2014-01-01
In a normal human life span, the heart beats about 2–3 billion times. Under diseased conditions, a heart may lose its normal rhythm and degenerate suddenly into much faster and irregular rhythms, called arrhythmias, which may lead to sudden death. The transition from a normal rhythm to an arrhythmia is a transition from regular electrical wave conduction to irregular or turbulent wave conduction in the heart, and thus this medical problem is also a problem of physics and mathematics. In the last century, clinical, experimental, and theoretical studies have shown that dynamical theories play fundamental roles in understanding the mechanisms of the genesis of the normal heart rhythm as well as lethal arrhythmias. In this article, we summarize in detail the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics occurring in the heart and their links to normal cardiac functions and arrhythmias, providing a holistic view through integrating dynamics from the molecular (microscopic) scale, to the organelle (mesoscopic) scale, to the cellular, tissue, and organ (macroscopic) scales. We discuss what existing problems and challenges are waiting to be solved and how multi-scale mathematical modeling and nonlinear dynamics may be helpful for solving these problems
Stochastic models: theory and simulation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Field, Richard V., Jr.
2008-03-01
Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.
Stochastic model in microwave propagation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ranfagni, A.; Mugnai, D.
2011-01-01
Further experimental results of delay time in microwave propagation are reported in the presence of a lossy medium (wood). The measurements show that the presence of a lossy medium makes the propagation slightly superluminal. The results are interpreted on the basis of a stochastic (or path integral) model, showing how this model is able to describe each kind of physical system in which multi-path trajectories are present. -- Highlights: ► We present new experimental results on electromagnetic “anomalous” propagation. ► We apply a path integral theoretical model to wave propagation. ► Stochastic processes and multi-path trajectories in propagation are considered.
Stochastic models of cell motility
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gradinaru, Cristian
2012-01-01
Cell motility and migration are central to the development and maintenance of multicellular organisms, and errors during this process can lead to major diseases. Consequently, the mechanisms and phenomenology of cell motility are currently under intense study. In recent years, a new...... interdisciplinary field focusing on the study of biological processes at the nanoscale level, with a range of technological applications in medicine and biological research, has emerged. The work presented in this thesis is at the interface of cell biology, image processing, and stochastic modeling. The stochastic...... models introduced here are based on persistent random motion, which I apply to real-life studies of cell motility on flat and nanostructured surfaces. These models aim to predict the time-dependent position of cell centroids in a stochastic manner, and conversely determine directly from experimental...
Stochastic models for atmospheric dispersion
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
2003-01-01
Simple stochastic differential equation models have been applied by several researchers to describe the dispersion of tracer particles in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and to form the basis for computer simulations of particle paths. To obtain the drift coefficient, empirical vertical...... positions close to the boundaries. Different rules have been suggested in the literature with justifications based on simulation studies. Herein the relevant stochastic differential equation model is formulated in a particular way. The formulation is based on the marginal transformation of the position...... dependent particle velocity into a position independent Gaussian velocity. Boundary conditions are obtained from Itos rule of stochastic differentiation. The model directly point at a canonical rule of reflection for the approximating random walk with finite time step. This reflection rule is different from...
A stochastic modeling of recurrent measles epidemic | Kassem ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A simple stochastic mathematical model is developed and investigated for the dynamics of measles epidemic. The model, which is a multi-dimensional diffusion process, includes susceptible individuals, latent (exposed), infected and removed individuals. Stochastic effects are assumed to arise in the process of infection of ...
Birch regeneration: a stochastic model
William B. Leak
1968-01-01
The regeneration of a clearcutting with paper or yellow birch is expressed as an elementary stochastic (probabalistic) model that is computationally similar to an absorbing Markov chain. In the general case, the model contains 29 states beginning with the development of a flower (ament) and terminating with the abortion of a flower or seed, or the development of an...
Stochastic Modelling of River Geometry
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Schaarup-Jensen, K.
1996-01-01
Numerical hydrodynamic river models are used in a large number of applications to estimate critical events for rivers. These estimates are subject to a number of uncertainties. In this paper, the problem to evaluate these estimates using probabilistic methods is considered. Stochastic models for ...... for river geometries are formulated and a coupling between hydraulic computational methods and numerical reliability methods is presented....
Stochastic Modelling of River Geometry
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Schaarup-Jensen, K.
1996-01-01
Numerical hydrodynamic river models are used in a large number of applications to estimate critical events for rivers. These estimates are subject to a number of uncertainties. In this paper, the problem to evaluate these estimates using probabilistic methods is considered. Stochastic models...... for river geometries are formulated and a coupling between hydraulic computational methods and numerical reliability methods is presented....
Gross, Markus
2018-03-01
A fluctuating interfacial profile in one dimension is studied via Langevin simulations of the Edwards–Wilkinson equation with non-conserved noise and the Mullins–Herring equation with conserved noise. The profile is subject to either periodic or Dirichlet (no-flux) boundary conditions. We determine the noise-driven time-evolution of the profile between an initially flat configuration and the instant at which the profile reaches a given height M for the first time. The shape of the averaged profile agrees well with the prediction of weak-noise theory (WNT), which describes the most-likely trajectory to a fixed first-passage time. Furthermore, in agreement with WNT, on average the profile approaches the height M algebraically in time, with an exponent that is essentially independent of the boundary conditions. However, the actual value of the dynamic exponent turns out to be significantly smaller than predicted by WNT. This ‘renormalization’ of the exponent is explained in terms of the entropic repulsion exerted by the impenetrable boundary on the fluctuations of the profile around its most-likely path. The entropic repulsion mechanism is analyzed in detail for a single (fractional) Brownian walker, which describes the anomalous diffusion of a tagged monomer of the interface as it approaches the absorbing boundary. The present study sheds light on the accuracy and the limitations of the weak-noise approximation for the description of the full first-passage dynamics.
Dorça, Fabiano Azevedo; Lima, Luciano Vieira; Fernandes, Márcia Aparecida; Lopes, Carlos Roberto
2012-01-01
Considering learning and how to improve students' performances, an adaptive educational system must know how an individual learns best. In this context, this work presents an innovative approach for student modeling through probabilistic learning styles combination. Experiments have shown that our approach is able to automatically detect and…
Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jonsdottir, Harpa
2007-01-01
In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains an introduct......In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....
Identifcation of a Linear COntinuous Time Stochastic Model of the Heat Dynamics of a Greenhouse
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Bjarne; Madsen, Henrik
1998-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to describe the basis for improving the control of air temperature and heat supply in greenhouses using a method which controls the energy supply by a model-based prediction of the air temperature in the greenhouse. Controllers of this type are the minimum variance...... controller, the generalized predictive controller and the proportional-integral-plus(PIP) controller. Prediction-based controllers have proved to be powerful in controlling the supply temperature in a distinct heating system....
Subspace dynamic mode decomposition for stochastic Koopman analysis
Takeishi, Naoya; Kawahara, Yoshinobu; Yairi, Takehisa
2017-09-01
The analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems based on the Koopman operator is attracting attention in various applications. Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a data-driven algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis, and several variants with a wide range of applications have been proposed. However, popular implementations of DMD suffer from observation noise on random dynamical systems and generate inaccurate estimation of the spectra of the stochastic Koopman operator. In this paper, we propose subspace DMD as an algorithm for the Koopman analysis of random dynamical systems with observation noise. Subspace DMD first computes the orthogonal projection of future snapshots to the space of past snapshots and then estimates the spectra of a linear model, and its output converges to the spectra of the stochastic Koopman operator under standard assumptions. We investigate the empirical performance of subspace DMD with several dynamical systems and show its utility for the Koopman analysis of random dynamical systems.
Dynamic analysis of stochastic transcription cycles.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claire V Harper
2011-04-01
Full Text Available In individual mammalian cells the expression of some genes such as prolactin is highly variable over time and has been suggested to occur in stochastic pulses. To investigate the origins of this behavior and to understand its functional relevance, we quantitatively analyzed this variability using new mathematical tools that allowed us to reconstruct dynamic transcription rates of different reporter genes controlled by identical promoters in the same living cell. Quantitative microscopic analysis of two reporter genes, firefly luciferase and destabilized EGFP, was used to analyze the dynamics of prolactin promoter-directed gene expression in living individual clonal and primary pituitary cells over periods of up to 25 h. We quantified the time-dependence and cyclicity of the transcription pulses and estimated the length and variation of active and inactive transcription phases. We showed an average cycle period of approximately 11 h and demonstrated that while the measured time distribution of active phases agreed with commonly accepted models of transcription, the inactive phases were differently distributed and showed strong memory, with a refractory period of transcriptional inactivation close to 3 h. Cycles in transcription occurred at two distinct prolactin-promoter controlled reporter genes in the same individual clonal or primary cells. However, the timing of the cycles was independent and out-of-phase. For the first time, we have analyzed transcription dynamics from two equivalent loci in real-time in single cells. In unstimulated conditions, cells showed independent transcription dynamics at each locus. A key result from these analyses was the evidence for a minimum refractory period in the inactive-phase of transcription. The response to acute signals and the result of manipulation of histone acetylation was consistent with the hypothesis that this refractory period corresponded to a phase of chromatin remodeling which significantly
Normal Forms for Reduced Stochastic Climate Models
Franzke, C.; Majda, A.; Crommelin, D.
2009-04-01
The systematic development of reduced low-dimensional stochastic climate models from observations or comprehensive high-dimensional climate models is an important topic for low-frequency variability, climate sensitivity, and improved extended range forecasting. Here techniques from applied mathematics are utilized to systematically derive normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models for low-frequency variables. The use of a few Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) depending on observational data to span the low-frequency subspace requires the assessment of dyad interactions besides the more familiar triads in the interaction between the low- and high-frequency subspaces of the dynamics. It will be shown that the dyad and multiplicative triad interactions combine with the climatological linear operator interactions to simultaneously produce both strong nonlinear dissipation and Correlated Additive and Multiplicative (CAM) stochastic noise. For a single low-frequency variable the dyad interactions and climatological linear operator alone produce a normal form with CAM noise from advection of the large-scales by the small scales and simultaneously strong cubic damping. This normal form should prove useful for developing systematic regression fitting strategies for stochastic models of climate data. The validity of the one and two dimensional normal forms will be presented. Also the analytical PDF form for one-dimensional reduced models will be derived. This PDF can exhibit power-law decay only over a limited range and its ultimate decay is determined by the cubic damping. This cubic damping produces a Gaussian tail.
Stochastic modeling of soil salinity
Suweis, S.; Rinaldo, A.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.; Daly, E.; Maritan, A.
2010-01-01
A minimalist stochastic model of primary soil salinity is proposed, in which the rate of soil salinization is determined by the balance between dry and wet salt deposition and the intermittent leaching events caused by rainfall events. The long term probability density functions of salt mass and
Stochastic dynamic stiffness of surface footing for offshore wind turbines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vahdatirad, Mohammadjavad; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard; Ibsen, Lars Bo
2014-01-01
Highlights •This study concerns the stochastic dynamic stiffness of foundations for large offshore wind turbines. •A simple model of wind turbine structure with equivalent coupled springs at the base is utilized. •The level of uncertainties is quantified through a sensitivity analysis. •Estimatio...... of rare events of first natural frequency applying subset simulation is discussed....
Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy
Noussair, C.N.; Pfajfar, D.; Zsiros, J.
We construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with a structure based on a nonlinear version of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We analyze the behavior of firms’ pricing decisions in four different experimental economies. We consider how
Stochastic models of intracellular calcium signals
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rüdiger, Sten, E-mail: sten.ruediger@physik.hu-berlin.de
2014-01-10
Cellular signaling operates in a noisy environment shaped by low molecular concentrations and cellular heterogeneity. For calcium release through intracellular channels–one of the most important cellular signaling mechanisms–feedback by liberated calcium endows fluctuations with critical functions in signal generation and formation. In this review it is first described, under which general conditions the environment makes stochasticity relevant, and which conditions allow approximating or deterministic equations. This analysis provides a framework, in which one can deduce an efficient hybrid description combining stochastic and deterministic evolution laws. Within the hybrid approach, Markov chains model gating of channels, while the concentrations of calcium and calcium binding molecules (buffers) are described by reaction–diffusion equations. The article further focuses on the spatial representation of subcellular calcium domains related to intracellular calcium channels. It presents analysis for single channels and clusters of channels and reviews the effects of buffers on the calcium release. For clustered channels, we discuss the application and validity of coarse-graining as well as approaches based on continuous gating variables (Fokker–Planck and chemical Langevin equations). Comparison with recent experiments substantiates the stochastic and spatial approach, identifies minimal requirements for a realistic modeling, and facilitates an understanding of collective channel behavior. At the end of the review, implications of stochastic and local modeling for the generation and properties of cell-wide release and the integration of calcium dynamics into cellular signaling models are discussed.
Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic
Kouvaritakis, Basil
2016-01-01
For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...
Asymptotic and transient analysis of stochastic core ecosystem models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas C. Gard
2000-07-01
Full Text Available General results on ultimate boundedness and exit probability estimates for stochastic differential equations are applied to investigate asymptotic and transient properties of models of plankton-fish dynamics in uncertain environments
Stochastic and deterministic trend models
Estela Bee Dagum; Camilo Dagum
2008-01-01
In this paper we provide an overview of some trend models formulated for global and local estimation. Global trend models are based on the assumption that the trend or nonstationary mean of a time series can be approximated closely by simple functions of time over the entire span of the series. The most common representation of deterministic and stochastic trend are introduced. In particular, for the former we analyze polynomial and transcendental functions, whereas for the latter we assume t...
Stochastic Models of Soil Denitrification
Parkin, T. B.; Robinson, J. A.
1989-01-01
Soil denitrification is a highly variable process that appears to be lognormally distributed. This variability is manifested by large sample coefficients of variation for replicate estimates of soil core denitrification rates. Deterministic models for soil denitrification have been proposed in the past, but none of these models predicts the approximate lognormality exhibited by natural denitrification rate estimates. In this study, probabilistic (stochastic) models were developed to understand how positively skewed distributions for field denitrification rate estimates result from the combined influences of variables known to affect denitrification. Three stochastic models were developed to describe the distribution of measured soil core denitrification rates. The driving variables used for all the models were denitrification enzyme activity and CO2 production rates. The three models were distinguished by the functional relationships combining these driving variables. The functional relationships used were (i) a second-order model (model 1), (ii) a second-order model with a threshold (model 2), and (iii) a second-order saturation model (model 3). The parameters of the models were estimated by using 12 separate data sets (24 replicates per set), and their abilities to predict denitrification rate distributions were evaluated by using three additional independent data sets of 180 replicates each. Model 2 was the best because it produced distributions of denitrification rate which were not significantly different (P > 0.1) from distributions of measured denitrification rates. The generality of this model is unknown, but it accurately predicted the mean denitrification rates and accounted for the stochastic nature of this variable at the site studied. The approach used in this study may be applicable to other areas of ecological research in which accounting for the high spatial variability of microbiological processes is of interest. PMID:16347838
Brasseur, Pierre; Candille, Guillem; Bouttier, Pierre-Antoine; Brankart, Jean-Michel; Verron, Jacques
2015-04-01
The objective of this study is to explicitly simulate and quantify the uncertainty related to sea-level anomalies diagnosed from eddy-resolving ocean circulation models, in order to develop advanced methods suitable for addressing along-track altimetric data assimilation into such models. This work is carried out jointly with the MyOcean and SANGOMA (Stochastic Assimilation for the Next Generation Ocean Model Applications) consortium, funded by EU under the GMES umbrella over the 2012-2015 period. In this framework, a realistic circulation model of the North Atlantic ocean at 1/4° resolution (NATL025 configuration) has been adapted to include effects of unresolved scales on the dynamics. This is achieved by introducing stochastic perturbations of the equation of state to represent the associated model uncertainty. Assimilation experiments are designed using altimetric data from past and on-going missions (Jason-2 and Saral/AltiKA experiments, and Cryosat-2 for fully independent altimetric validation) to better control the Gulf Stream circulation, especially the frontal regions which are predominantly affected by the non-resolved dynamical scales. An ensemble based on such stochastic perturbations is then produced and evaluated -through the probabilistic criteria: the reliability and the resolution- using the model equivalent of along-track altimetric observations. These three elements (stochastic parameterization, ensemble simulation and 4D observation operator) are used together to perform optimal 4D analysis of along-track altimetry over 10-day assimilation windows. In this presentation, the results show that the free ensemble -before starting the assimilation process- well reproduces the climatological variability over the Gulf Stream area: the system is then pretty reliable but no informative (null probabilistic resolution). Updating the free ensemble with altimetric data leads to a better reliability and to an improvement of the information (resolution
Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sladký, Karel
2012-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf
Stochastic Models for Carcinogenesis
1961-01-01
Court Brown and Doll [3] on patients irradiated for ankylosing spondylitis . In their data, however, the peak incidence of leukemia occurred as soon as...and AploAtic Anaemia in Patients Irra- diated for Ankylosing Spondylitis , Special Report Series, Medical Research Council, No. 295, London, Her...function D(u). The possibilities are, of course, wide, and we shall not attempt any general treatment of such a model, although some particular cases will be
Stochastic Still Water Response Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
2002-01-01
water bending moment is compared to statistics from available regression formulas. It is found that the suggested model predicts a coefficient of variation of the maximum still water bending moment that is a factor of two to three times lower than that obtained by use of the regression formula. It turns......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...
A Stochastic Continuous Time Model for Microgrid Energy Management
Heymann, Benjamin; Frédéric Bonnans, J; Silva, Francisco; Jimenez, Guillermo
2016-01-01
International audience; We propose a novel stochastic control formulation for the microgrid energy management problem and extend previous works on continuous time rolling horizon strategy to uncertain demand. We modelize the demand dynamics with a stochastic differential equation. We decompose this dynamics into three terms: an average drift, a time-dependent mean-reversion term and a Brownian noise. We use BOCOPHJB for the numerical simulations. This optimal control toolbox implements a semi...
Characterizing phonon dynamics using stochastic sampling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kunal, K.; Aluru, N. R.
2016-01-01
Predicting phonon relaxation time from molecular dynamics (MD) requires a long simulation time to compute the mode energy auto-correlation function. Here, we present an alternative approach to infer the phonon life-time from an approximate form of the energy auto-correlation function. The method requires as an input a set of sampled equilibrium configurations. A stochastic sampling method is used to generate the equilibrium configurations. We consider a truncated Taylor series expansion of the phonon energy auto-correlation function. The different terms in the truncated correlation function are obtained using the stochastic sampling approach. The expansion terms, thus, obtained are in good agreement with the corresponding values obtained using MD. We then use the approximate function to compute the phonon relaxation time. The relaxation time computed using this method is compared with that obtained from the exact correlation function. The two values are in agreement with each other.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lodi, C.; Bacher, Peder; Cipriano, J.
2012-01-01
and heat transfer coefficients is fundamental in order to improve the thermo-electrical production.The considered grey-box models are composed of a set of continuous time stochastic differential equations, holding the physical description of the system, combined with a set of discrete time measurement...... reduce the ventilation thermal losses of the building by pre-heating the fresh air. Furthermore, by decreasing PV module temperature, the ventilation air heat extraction can simultaneously increase electrical and thermal energy production of the building. A correct prediction of the PV module temperature...... equations, which represent the data driven part.In the present work, both one-state and two-state non-linear grey-box models are considered. In order to validate the results, the residuals are analysed for white-noise properties....
Hybrid Differential Dynamic Programming with Stochastic Search
Aziz, Jonathan; Parker, Jeffrey; Englander, Jacob
2016-01-01
Differential dynamic programming (DDP) has been demonstrated as a viable approach to low-thrust trajectory optimization, namely with the recent success of NASAs Dawn mission. The Dawn trajectory was designed with the DDP-based Static Dynamic Optimal Control algorithm used in the Mystic software. Another recently developed method, Hybrid Differential Dynamic Programming (HDDP) is a variant of the standard DDP formulation that leverages both first-order and second-order state transition matrices in addition to nonlinear programming (NLP) techniques. Areas of improvement over standard DDP include constraint handling, convergence properties, continuous dynamics, and multi-phase capability. DDP is a gradient based method and will converge to a solution nearby an initial guess. In this study, monotonic basin hopping (MBH) is employed as a stochastic search method to overcome this limitation, by augmenting the HDDP algorithm for a wider search of the solution space.
Stochastic ontogenetic allometry: the statistical dynamics of relative growth.
Papadopoulos, Anthony
2011-01-01
In the absence of stochasticity, allometric growth throughout ontogeny is axiomatically described by the logarithm-transformed power-law model, θt = log(a) b + kφ(t), where θt ≡ θ(t) and φt ≡ φ(t) are the logarithmic sizes of two traits at any given time t. Realistically, however, stochasticity is an inherent property of ontogenetic allometry. Due to the inherent stochasticity in both θt and φt, the ontogenetic allometry coefficients, log(a) b and k, can vary with t and have intricate temporal distributions that are governed by the central and mixed moments of the random ontogenetic growth functions, θt and φt. Unfortunately, there is no probabilistic model for analyzing these informative ontogenetic statistical moments. This study treats θt and φt as correlated stochastic processes to formulate the exact probabilistic version of each of the ontogenetic allometry coefficients. In particular, the statistical dynamics of relative growth is addressed by analyzing the allometric growth factors that affect the temporal distribution of the probabilistic version of the relative growth rate, k ≡ Dt(u)/Dt(v), where is the expected value of the ratio of stochastic θt to stochastic φt, and u and v are the numerator and the denominator of , respectively. These allometric growth factors, which provide important insight into ontogenetic allometry but appear only when stochasticity is introduced, describe the central and mixed moments of θt and φt as differentiable real-valued functions of t. Failure to account for the inherent stochasticity in both θt and φt leads not only to the miscalculation of k, but also to the omission of all of the informative ontogenetic statistical moments that affect the size of traits and the timing and rate of development of traits. Furthermore, even though the stochastic process θt and the stochastic process φt are linearly related, k can vary with t.
Stochastic Models of Human Errors
Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.
Stochastic Load Models and Footbridge Response
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian
2015-01-01
Pedestrians may cause vibrations in footbridges and these vibrations may potentially be annoying. This calls for predictions of footbridge vibration levels and the paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians assuming walking parameters such as step frequency......, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. to be random variables. By this approach a probability distribution function of bridge response is calculated. The paper explores how sensitive estimates of probability distribution functions of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made when modelling...
Modelling conjugation with stochastic differential equations.
Philipsen, K R; Christiansen, L E; Hasman, H; Madsen, H
2010-03-07
Conjugation is an important mechanism involved in the transfer of resistance between bacteria. In this article a stochastic differential equation based model consisting of a continuous time state equation and a discrete time measurement equation is introduced to model growth and conjugation of two Enterococcus faecium strains in a rich exhaustible media. The model contains a new expression for a substrate dependent conjugation rate. A maximum likelihood based method is used to estimate the model parameters. Different models including different noise structure for the system and observations are compared using a likelihood-ratio test and Akaike's information criterion. Experiments indicating conjugation on the agar plates selecting for transconjugants motivates the introduction of an extended model, for which conjugation on the agar plate is described in the measurement equation. This model is compared to the model without plate conjugation. The modelling approach described in this article can be applied generally when modelling dynamical systems. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lakatos, Eszter, E-mail: e.lakatos13@imperial.ac.uk; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H., E-mail: m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, Centre for Integrative Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)
2015-09-07
Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs.
Diaz-Ruelas, Alvaro; Jeldtoft Jensen, Henrik; Piovani, Duccio; Robledo, Alberto
2016-12-01
It is well known that low-dimensional nonlinear deterministic maps close to a tangent bifurcation exhibit intermittency and this circumstance has been exploited, e.g., by Procaccia and Schuster [Phys. Rev. A 28, 1210 (1983)], to develop a general theory of 1/f spectra. This suggests it is interesting to study the extent to which the behavior of a high-dimensional stochastic system can be described by such tangent maps. The Tangled Nature (TaNa) Model of evolutionary ecology is an ideal candidate for such a study, a significant model as it is capable of reproducing a broad range of the phenomenology of macroevolution and ecosystems. The TaNa model exhibits strong intermittency reminiscent of punctuated equilibrium and, like the fossil record of mass extinction, the intermittency in the model is found to be non-stationary, a feature typical of many complex systems. We derive a mean-field version for the evolution of the likelihood function controlling the reproduction of species and find a local map close to tangency. This mean-field map, by our own local approximation, is able to describe qualitatively only one episode of the intermittent dynamics of the full TaNa model. To complement this result, we construct a complete nonlinear dynamical system model consisting of successive tangent bifurcations that generates time evolution patterns resembling those of the full TaNa model in macroscopic scales. The switch from one tangent bifurcation to the next in the sequences produced in this model is stochastic in nature, based on criteria obtained from the local mean-field approximation, and capable of imitating the changing set of types of species and total population in the TaNa model. The model combines full deterministic dynamics with instantaneous parameter random jumps at stochastically drawn times. In spite of the limitations of our approach, which entails a drastic collapse of degrees of freedom, the description of a high-dimensional model system in terms of a low
Modelling Evolutionary Algorithms with Stochastic Differential Equations.
Heredia, Jorge Pérez
2017-11-20
There has been renewed interest in modelling the behaviour of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) by more traditional mathematical objects, such as ordinary differential equations or Markov chains. The advantage is that the analysis becomes greatly facilitated due to the existence of well established methods. However, this typically comes at the cost of disregarding information about the process. Here, we introduce the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for the study of EAs. SDEs can produce simple analytical results for the dynamics of stochastic processes, unlike Markov chains which can produce rigorous but unwieldy expressions about the dynamics. On the other hand, unlike ordinary differential equations (ODEs), they do not discard information about the stochasticity of the process. We show that these are especially suitable for the analysis of fixed budget scenarios and present analogues of the additive and multiplicative drift theorems from runtime analysis. In addition, we derive a new more general multiplicative drift theorem that also covers non-elitist EAs. This theorem simultaneously allows for positive and negative results, providing information on the algorithm's progress even when the problem cannot be optimised efficiently. Finally, we provide results for some well-known heuristics namely Random Walk (RW), Random Local Search (RLS), the (1+1) EA, the Metropolis Algorithm (MA), and the Strong Selection Weak Mutation (SSWM) algorithm.
Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benth, Fred Espen; Koekebakker, Steen
2008-01-01
We discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We propose to use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the instantaneous-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing instantaneous-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods. To overcome this problem, a practical modeling approach is analyzed. The market is supposed only to consist of non-overlapping swaps, and these are modelled directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist
of cellulose, co-fermentation of sugars and downstream processes for purification and recovery of most value-added products. The dynamic model involves both the mass and energy balances coupled with constitutive dynamic equations to assess the process yield and energy efficiency of different bioethanol...
Stochastic dynamic analysis of marine risers considering Gaussian system uncertainties
Ni, Pinghe; Li, Jun; Hao, Hong; Xia, Yong
2018-03-01
This paper performs the stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers with material uncertainties, i.e. in the mass density and elastic modulus, by using Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and model reduction technique. These uncertainties are assumed having Gaussian distributions. The random mass density and elastic modulus are represented by using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion. The Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion is adopted to represent the vibration response because the covariance of the output is unknown. Model reduction based on the Iterated Improved Reduced System (IIRS) technique is applied to eliminate the PC coefficients of the slave degrees of freedom to reduce the dimension of the stochastic system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is conducted to obtain the reference response statistics. Two numerical examples are studied in this paper. The response statistics from the proposed approach are compared with those from MCS. It is noted that the computational time is significantly reduced while the accuracy is kept. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach for stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers.
Stochastic Dynamics through Hierarchically Embedded Markov Chains
Vasconcelos, Vítor V.; Santos, Fernando P.; Santos, Francisco C.; Pacheco, Jorge M.
2017-02-01
Studying dynamical phenomena in finite populations often involves Markov processes of significant mathematical and/or computational complexity, which rapidly becomes prohibitive with increasing population size or an increasing number of individual configuration states. Here, we develop a framework that allows us to define a hierarchy of approximations to the stationary distribution of general systems that can be described as discrete Markov processes with time invariant transition probabilities and (possibly) a large number of states. This results in an efficient method for studying social and biological communities in the presence of stochastic effects—such as mutations in evolutionary dynamics and a random exploration of choices in social systems—including situations where the dynamics encompasses the existence of stable polymorphic configurations, thus overcoming the limitations of existing methods. The present formalism is shown to be general in scope, widely applicable, and of relevance to a variety of interdisciplinary problems.
Equilibrium stochastic dynamics of Poisson cluster ensembles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L.Bogachev
2008-06-01
Full Text Available The distribution μ of a Poisson cluster process in Χ=Rd (with n-point clusters is studied via the projection of an auxiliary Poisson measure in the space of configurations in Χn, with the intensity measure being the convolution of the background intensity (of cluster centres with the probability distribution of a generic cluster. We show that μ is quasi-invariant with respect to the group of compactly supported diffeomorphisms of Χ, and prove an integration by parts formula for μ. The corresponding equilibrium stochastic dynamics is then constructed using the method of Dirichlet forms.
Convergence of Sample Path Optimal Policies for Stochastic Dynamic Programming
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Fu, Michael C; Jin, Xing
2005-01-01
.... These results have practical implications for Monte Carlo simulation-based solution approaches to stochastic dynamic programming problems where it is impractical to extract the explicit transition...
Sequential neural models with stochastic layers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fraccaro, Marco; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Paquet, Ulrich
2016-01-01
How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural...... generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over...
Nonperturbative stochastic dynamics driven by strongly correlated colored noise
Jing, Jun; Li, Rui; You, J. Q.; Yu, Ting
2015-02-01
We propose a quantum model consisting of two remote qubits interacting with two correlated colored noises and establish an exact stochastic Schrödinger equation for this open quantum system. It is shown that the quantum dynamics of the qubit system is profoundly modulated by the mutual correlation between baths and the bath memory capability through dissipation and fluctuation. We report a physical effect on generating inner correlation and entanglement of two distant qubits arising from the strong bath-bath correlation.
Andrews, Blake M.; Song, Junho; Fahnestock, Larry A.
2009-09-01
Buckling-restrained braces (BRBs) have recently become popular in the United States for use as primary members of seismic lateral-force-resisting systems. A BRB is a steel brace that does not buckle in compression but instead yields in both tension and compression. Although design guidelines for BRB applications have been developed, systematic procedures for assessing performance and quantifying reliability are still needed. This paper presents an analytical framework for assessing buckling-restrained braced frame (BRBF) reliability when subjected to seismic loads. This framework efficiently quantifies the risk of BRB failure due to low-cycle fatigue fracture of the BRB core. The procedure includes a series of components that: (1) quantify BRB demand in terms of BRB core deformation histories generated through stochastic dynamic analyses; (2) quantify the limit-state of a BRB in terms of its remaining cumulative plastic ductility capacity based on an experimental database; and (3) evaluate the probability of BRB failure, given the quantified demand and capacity, through structural reliability analyses. Parametric studies were conducted to investigate the effects of the seismic load, and characteristics of the BRB and BRBF on the probability of brace failure. In addition, fragility curves (i.e., conditional probabilities of brace failure given ground shaking intensity parameters) were created by the proposed framework. While the framework presented in this paper is applied to the assessment of BRBFs, the modular nature of the framework components allows for application to other structural components and systems.
Laosiritaworn, Yongjua; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut; Laosiritaworn, Wimalin S.
2017-09-01
In this work, the disease spreading under SIR framework (susceptible-infected-recovered) agent-based model was investigated via magnetic spin model, stochastic Monte Carlo simulation, and Neural Network analysis. The defined systems were two-dimensional lattice-like, where the spins (representing susceptible, infected, and recovered agents) were allocated on lattice cells. The lattice size, spin density, and infectious period were varied to observe its influence on disease spreading period. In the simulation, each spin was randomly allocated on the lattice and interacted with its first neighbouring spins for disease spreading. The subgroup magnetization profiles were recorded. From the results, numbers of agents in each subgroup as a function of time was found to depend on all considered parameters. Specifically, the disease spreading period slightly increases with increasing system size, decreases with increasing spin density, and exponentially decays with increasing infectious period. Due to many degrees of freedom associated, Neural Network was used to establish complex relationship among parameters. Multi-layer perceptron was considered, where optimized network architecture of 3-19-15-1 was found. Good agreement between predicted and actual outputs was evident. This confirms the validity of using Neural Network as supplements in modelling SIR disease spreading and provides profound database for future deployment.
Yifat, Jonathan; Gannot, Israel
2015-03-01
Early detection of malignant tumors plays a crucial role in the survivability chances of the patient. Therefore, new and innovative tumor detection methods are constantly searched for. Tumor-specific magnetic-core nano-particles can be used with an alternating magnetic field to detect and treat tumors by hyperthermia. For the analysis of the method effectiveness, the bio-heat transfer between the nanoparticles and the tissue must be carefully studied. Heat diffusion in biological tissue is usually analyzed using the Pennes Bio-Heat Equation, where blood perfusion plays an important role. Malignant tumors are known to initiate an angiogenesis process, where endothelial cell migration from neighboring vasculature eventually leads to the formation of a thick blood capillary network around them. This process allows the tumor to receive its extensive nutrition demands and evolve into a more progressive and potentially fatal tumor. In order to assess the effect of angiogenesis on the bio-heat transfer problem, we have developed a discrete stochastic 3D model & simulation of tumor-induced angiogenesis. The model elaborates other angiogenesis models by providing high resolution 3D stochastic simulation, capturing of fine angiogenesis morphological features, effects of dynamic sprout thickness functions, and stochastic parent vessel generator. We show that the angiogenesis realizations produced are well suited for numerical bio-heat transfer analysis. Statistical study on the angiogenesis characteristics was derived using Monte Carlo simulations. According to the statistical analysis, we provide analytical expression for the blood perfusion coefficient in the Pennes equation, as a function of several parameters. This updated form of the Pennes equation could be used for numerical and analytical analyses of the proposed detection and treatment method. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Stochastic models for cell division
Stukalin, Evgeny; Sun, Sean
2013-03-01
The probability of cell division per unit time strongly depends of age of cells, i.e., time elapsed since their birth. The theory of cell populations in the age-time representation is systematically applied for modeling cell division for different spreads in generation times. We use stochastic simulations to address the same issue at the level of individual cells. Our approach unlike deterministic theory enables to analyze the size fluctuations of cell colonies at different growth conditions (in the absence and in the presence of cell death, for initially synchronized and asynchronous cell populations, for conditions of restricted growth). We find the simple quantitative relation between the asymptotic values of relative size fluctuations around mean values for initially synchronized cell populations under growth and the coefficients of variation of generation times. Effect of initial age distribution for asynchronous growth of cell cultures is also studied by simulations. The influence of constant cell death on fluctuations of sizes of cell populations is found to be essential even for small cell death rates, i.e., for realistic growth conditions. The stochastic model is generalized for biologically relevant case that involves both cell reproduction and cell differentiation.
Age distribution dynamics with stochastic jumps in mortality.
Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare; Laio, Francesco; D'Odorico, Paolo; Ridolfi, Luca
2017-11-01
While deterministic age distribution models have been extensively studied and applied in various disciplines, little work has been devoted to understanding the role of stochasticity in birth and mortality terms. In this paper, we analyse a stochastic M'Kendrick-von Foerster equation in which jumps in mortality represent intense losses of population due to external events. We present explicit solutions for the probability density functions of the age distribution and the total population and for the temporal dynamics of their moments. We also derive the dynamics of the mean age of the population and its harmonic mean. The framework is then used to calculate the age distribution of salt in the soil root zone, where the accumulation of salt by atmospheric deposition is counteracted by plant uptake and by jump losses due to percolation events.
Stochastic models of technology diffusion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Horner, S.M.
1978-01-01
Simple stochastic models of epidemics have often been employed by economists and sociologists in the study of the diffusion of information or new technology. In the present theoretical inquiry the properties of a family of models related to these epidemic processes are investigated, and use of the results in the study of technical change phenomena is demonstrated. A moving limit to the level of productivity of capital is hypothesized, the exact increment is determined exogenously by basic or applied research carried on outside the industry. It is this level of latent productivity (LPRO) which fills the role of the ''disease'' which ''spreads'' through the industry. In the single advance models, LPRO is assumed to have moved forward at some point in time, after which an individual firm may advance to the limit by virtue of its own research and development or through imitation of the successful efforts of another firm. In the recurrent advance models, LPRO is assumed to increase at either a constant absolute or relative rate. The firms, in the course of their research and imitation efforts, follow behind LPRO. Using the methods of stochastic processes, it is shown that these models are equivalent to ergodic Markov chains. Based on an assumption of constant intensity of R and D effort, it is shown how the single and recurrent advance models reflect on Joseph Schumpeter's hypothesis that more concentrated industries tend to be more technologically advanced than less concentrated. The results corroborate the weakest version of the hypothesis: monopoly prices need not be higher than competitive prices.
Models of the stochastic activity of neurones
Holden, Arun Vivian
1976-01-01
These notes have grown from a series of seminars given at Leeds between 1972 and 1975. They represent an attempt to gather together the different kinds of model which have been proposed to account for the stochastic activity of neurones, and to provide an introduction to this area of mathematical biology. A striking feature of the electrical activity of the nervous system is that it appears stochastic: this is apparent at all levels of recording, ranging from intracellular recordings to the electroencephalogram. The chapters start with fluctuations in membrane potential, proceed through single unit and synaptic activity and end with the behaviour of large aggregates of neurones: L have chgaen this seque~~e\\/~~';uggest that the interesting behaviourr~f :the nervous system - its individuality, variability and dynamic forms - may in part result from the stochastic behaviour of its components. I would like to thank Dr. Julio Rubio for reading and commenting on the drafts, Mrs. Doris Beighton for producing the fin...
Stochastic bifurcation in a model of love with colored noise
Yue, Xiaokui; Dai, Honghua; Yuan, Jianping
2015-07-01
In this paper, we wish to examine the stochastic bifurcation induced by multiplicative Gaussian colored noise in a dynamical model of love where the random factor is used to describe the complexity and unpredictability of psychological systems. First, the dynamics in deterministic love-triangle model are considered briefly including equilibrium points and their stability, chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then, the influences of Gaussian colored noise with different parameters are explored such as the phase plots, top Lyapunov exponents, stationary probability density function (PDF) and stochastic bifurcation. The stochastic P-bifurcation through a qualitative change of the stationary PDF will be observed and bifurcation diagram on parameter plane of correlation time and noise intensity is presented to find the bifurcation behaviors in detail. Finally, the top Lyapunov exponent is computed to determine the D-bifurcation when the noise intensity achieves to a critical value. By comparison, we find there is no connection between two kinds of stochastic bifurcation.
CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wanwan Huang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.
Stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library
Zacate, Matthew O.; Evenson, William E.
2011-04-01
The stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library (SHIML) provides a set of routines to assist in the development and application of stochastic models of hyperfine interactions. The library provides routines written in the C programming language that (1) read a text description of a model for fluctuating hyperfine fields, (2) set up the Blume matrix, upon which the evolution operator of the system depends, and (3) find the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Blume matrix so that theoretical spectra of experimental techniques that measure hyperfine interactions can be calculated. The optimized vector and matrix operations of the BLAS and LAPACK libraries are utilized; however, there was a need to develop supplementary code to find an orthonormal set of (left and right) eigenvectors of complex, non-Hermitian matrices. In addition, example code is provided to illustrate the use of SHIML to generate perturbed angular correlation spectra for the special case of polycrystalline samples when anisotropy terms of higher order than A can be neglected. Program summaryProgram title: SHIML Catalogue identifier: AEIF_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEIF_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU GPL 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8224 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 312 348 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C Computer: Any Operating system: LINUX, OS X RAM: Varies Classification: 7.4 External routines: TAPP [1], BLAS [2], a C-interface to BLAS [3], and LAPACK [4] Nature of problem: In condensed matter systems, hyperfine methods such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), Mössbauer effect (ME), muon spin rotation (μSR), and perturbed angular correlation spectroscopy (PAC) measure electronic and magnetic structure within Angstroms of nuclear probes through the hyperfine interaction. When
Statistical Model Checking for Stochastic Hybrid Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
David, Alexandre; Du, Dehui; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand
2012-01-01
This paper presents novel extensions and applications of the UPPAAL-SMC model checker. The extensions allow for statistical model checking of stochastic hybrid systems. We show how our race-based stochastic semantics extends to networks of hybrid systems, and indicate the integration technique ap...
Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.
2000-01-01
Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others
2016-09-15
This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased
Stochastic Erosion of Fractal Structure in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
Agarwal, S.; Wettlaufer, J. S.
2014-12-01
We analyze the effects of stochastic noise on the Lorenz-63 model in the chaotic regime to demonstrate a set of general issues arising in the interpretation of data from nonlinear dynamical systems typical in geophysics. The model is forced using both additive and multiplicative, white and colored noise and it is shown that, through a suitable choice of the noise intensity, both additive and multiplicative noise can produce similar dynamics. We use a recently developed measure, histogram distance, to show the similarity between the dynamics produced by additive and multiplicative forcing. This phenomenon, in a nonlinear fractal structure with chaotic dynamics can be explained by understanding how noise affects the Unstable Periodic Orbits (UPOs) of the system. For delta-correlated noise, the UPOs erode the fractal structure. In the presence of memory in the noise forcing, the time scale of the noise starts to interact with the period of some UPO and, depending on the noise intensity, stochastic resonance may be observed. This also explains the mixing in dissipative dynamical systems in presence of white noise; as the fractal structure is smoothed, the decay of correlations is enhanced, and hence the rate of mixing increases with noise intensity.
Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeffrey A Hostetler
Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.
Stochastic Modelling and Analysis of Warehouse Operations
Y. Gong (Yeming)
2009-01-01
textabstractThis thesis has studied stochastic models and analysis of warehouse operations. After an overview of stochastic research in warehouse operations, we explore the following topics. Firstly, we search optimal batch sizes in a parallel-aisle warehouse with online order arrivals. We employ a
Temperature stochastic modeling and weather derivatives pricing ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... over a sufficient period to apply a stochastic process that describes the evolution of the temperature. A numerical example of a swap contract pricing is presented, using an approximation formula as well as Monte Carlo simulations. Keywords: Weather derivatives, temperature stochastic model, Monte Carlo simulation.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ghoreishi, Maryam
2018-01-01
Many models within the field of optimal dynamic pricing and lot-sizing models for deteriorating items assume everything is deterministic and develop a differential equation as the core of analysis. Two prominent examples are the papers by Rajan et al. (Manag Sci 38:240–262, 1992) and Abad (Manag...... Sci 42:1093–1104, 1996). To our knowledge, nobody has ever tested whether the optimal solutions obtained in those papers are valid if the real system is exposed to randomness: with regard to demand process as well as with regard to the deterioration process. The motivation is that although the real...
Stochastic models of intracellular transport
Bressloff, Paul C.
2013-01-09
The interior of a living cell is a crowded, heterogenuous, fluctuating environment. Hence, a major challenge in modeling intracellular transport is to analyze stochastic processes within complex environments. Broadly speaking, there are two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport: passive diffusion and motor-driven active transport. Diffusive transport can be formulated in terms of the motion of an overdamped Brownian particle. On the other hand, active transport requires chemical energy, usually in the form of adenosine triphosphate hydrolysis, and can be direction specific, allowing biomolecules to be transported long distances; this is particularly important in neurons due to their complex geometry. In this review a wide range of analytical methods and models of intracellular transport is presented. In the case of diffusive transport, narrow escape problems, diffusion to a small target, confined and single-file diffusion, homogenization theory, and fractional diffusion are considered. In the case of active transport, Brownian ratchets, random walk models, exclusion processes, random intermittent search processes, quasi-steady-state reduction methods, and mean-field approximations are considered. Applications include receptor trafficking, axonal transport, membrane diffusion, nuclear transport, protein-DNA interactions, virus trafficking, and the self-organization of subcellular structures. © 2013 American Physical Society.
Stochastic biomathematical models with applications to neuronal modeling
Batzel, Jerry; Ditlevsen, Susanne
2013-01-01
Stochastic biomathematical models are becoming increasingly important as new light is shed on the role of noise in living systems. In certain biological systems, stochastic effects may even enhance a signal, thus providing a biological motivation for the noise observed in living systems. Recent advances in stochastic analysis and increasing computing power facilitate the analysis of more biophysically realistic models, and this book provides researchers in computational neuroscience and stochastic systems with an overview of recent developments. Key concepts are developed in chapters written by experts in their respective fields. Topics include: one-dimensional homogeneous diffusions and their boundary behavior, large deviation theory and its application in stochastic neurobiological models, a review of mathematical methods for stochastic neuronal integrate-and-fire models, stochastic partial differential equation models in neurobiology, and stochastic modeling of spreading cortical depression.
Extended Plefka expansion for stochastic dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bravi, B; Sollich, P; Opper, M
2016-01-01
We propose an extension of the Plefka expansion, which is well known for the dynamics of discrete spins, to stochastic differential equations with continuous degrees of freedom and exhibiting generic nonlinearities. The scenario is sufficiently general to allow application to e.g. biochemical networks involved in metabolism and regulation. The main feature of our approach is to constrain in the Plefka expansion not just first moments akin to magnetizations, but also second moments, specifically two-time correlations and responses for each degree of freedom. The end result is an effective equation of motion for each single degree of freedom, where couplings to other variables appear as a self-coupling to the past (i.e. memory term) and a coloured noise. This constitutes a new mean field approximation that should become exact in the thermodynamic limit of a large network, for suitably long-ranged couplings. For the analytically tractable case of linear dynamics we establish this exactness explicitly by appeal to spectral methods of random matrix theory, for Gaussian couplings with arbitrary degree of symmetry. (paper)
Extended Plefka expansion for stochastic dynamics
Bravi, B.; Sollich, P.; Opper, M.
2016-05-01
We propose an extension of the Plefka expansion, which is well known for the dynamics of discrete spins, to stochastic differential equations with continuous degrees of freedom and exhibiting generic nonlinearities. The scenario is sufficiently general to allow application to e.g. biochemical networks involved in metabolism and regulation. The main feature of our approach is to constrain in the Plefka expansion not just first moments akin to magnetizations, but also second moments, specifically two-time correlations and responses for each degree of freedom. The end result is an effective equation of motion for each single degree of freedom, where couplings to other variables appear as a self-coupling to the past (i.e. memory term) and a coloured noise. This constitutes a new mean field approximation that should become exact in the thermodynamic limit of a large network, for suitably long-ranged couplings. For the analytically tractable case of linear dynamics we establish this exactness explicitly by appeal to spectral methods of random matrix theory, for Gaussian couplings with arbitrary degree of symmetry.
Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems
Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G
2011-01-01
Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi
Quantization of dynamical systems and stochastic control theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guerra, F.; Morato, L.M.
1982-09-01
In the general framework of stochastic control theory we introduce a suitable form of stochastic action associated to the controlled process. Then a variational principle gives all main features of Nelson's stochastic mechanics. In particular we derive the expression of the current velocity field as the gradient of the phase action. Moreover the stochastic corrections to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation are in agreement with the quantum mechanical form of the Madelung fluid (equivalent to the Schroedinger equation). Therefore stochastic control theory can provide a very simple model simulating quantum mechanical behavior
Dynamic electricity pricing for electric vehicles using stochastic programming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soares, João; Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Borges, Nuno; Vale, Zita
2017-01-01
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are an important source of uncertainty, due to their variable demand, departure time and location. In smart grids, the electricity demand can be controlled via Demand Response (DR) programs. Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid seem highly promising methods for EVs control. However, high capital costs remain a barrier to implementation. Meanwhile, incentive and price-based schemes that do not require high level of control can be implemented to influence the EVs' demand. Having effective tools to deal with the increasing level of uncertainty is increasingly important for players, such as energy aggregators. This paper formulates a stochastic model for day-ahead energy resource scheduling, integrated with the dynamic electricity pricing for EVs, to address the challenges brought by the demand and renewable sources uncertainty. The two-stage stochastic programming approach is used to obtain the optimal electricity pricing for EVs. A realistic case study projected for 2030 is presented based on Zaragoza network. The results demonstrate that it is more effective than the deterministic model and that the optimal pricing is preferable. This study indicates that adequate DR schemes like the proposed one are promising to increase the customers' satisfaction in addition to improve the profitability of the energy aggregation business. - Highlights: • A stochastic model for energy scheduling tackling several uncertainty sources. • A two-stage stochastic programming is used to tackle the developed model. • Optimal EV electricity pricing seems to improve the profits. • The propose results suggest to increase the customers' satisfaction.
Collisionally induced stochastic dynamics of fast ions in solids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burgdoerfer, J.
1989-01-01
Recent developments in the theory of excited state formation in collisions of fast highly charged ions with solids are reviewed. We discuss a classical transport theory employing Monte-Carlo sampling of solutions of a microscopic Langevin equation. Dynamical screening by the dielectric medium as well as multiple collisions are incorporated through the drift and stochastic forces in the Langevin equation. The close relationship between the extrinsically stochastic dynamics described by the Langevin and the intrinsic stochasticity in chaotic nonlinear dynamical systems is stressed. Comparison with experimental data and possible modification by quantum corrections are discussed. 49 refs., 11 figs
Reliability-based Dynamic Network Design with Stochastic Networks
Li, H.
2009-01-01
Transportation systems are stochastic and dynamic systems. The road capacities and the travel demand are fluctuating from time to time within a day and at the same time from day to day. For road users, the travel time and travel costs experienced over time and space are stochastic, thus desire
Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems
Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.
2018-02-01
Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex
Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Long Teng
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.
Modelling and application of stochastic processes
1986-01-01
The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...
Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd; Yarahmadian, Shantia
2016-10-21
In this paper, a new mathematical model is proposed for studying the population dynamics of breast cancer cells treated by radiotherapy by using a system of stochastic differential equations. The novelty of the model is essentially in capturing the concept of the cell cycle in the modeling to be able to evaluate the tumor lifespan. According to the cell cycle, each cell belongs to one of three subpopulations G, S, or M, representing gap, synthesis and mitosis subpopulations. Cells in the M subpopulation are highly radio-sensitive, whereas cells in the S subpopulation are highly radio-resistant. Therefore, in the process of radiotherapy, cell death rates of different subpopulations are not equal. In addition, since flow cytometry is unable to detect apoptotic cells accurately, the small changes in cell death rate in each subpopulation during treatment are considered. Subsequently, the proposed model is calibrated using experimental data from previous experiments involving the MCF-7 breast cancer cell line. Consequently, the proposed model is able to predict tumor lifespan based on the number of initial carcinoma cells. The results show the effectiveness of the radiation under the condition of stability, which describes the decreasing trend of the tumor cells population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Filtering and identification of stochastic volatility for parabolic type factor models
Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha
2006-01-01
We consider the dynamics of forward rate process which is modeled by a parabolic type infinite-dimensional factor model with stochastic volatility. The parameters included in the stochastic volatility dynamics are estimated from the factor process as the observation data. Based on the maximum
Stochastic lattice model of synaptic membrane protein domains
Li, Yiwei; Kahraman, Osman; Haselwandter, Christoph A.
2017-05-01
Neurotransmitter receptor molecules, concentrated in synaptic membrane domains along with scaffolds and other kinds of proteins, are crucial for signal transmission across chemical synapses. In common with other membrane protein domains, synaptic domains are characterized by low protein copy numbers and protein crowding, with rapid stochastic turnover of individual molecules. We study here in detail a stochastic lattice model of the receptor-scaffold reaction-diffusion dynamics at synaptic domains that was found previously to capture, at the mean-field level, the self-assembly, stability, and characteristic size of synaptic domains observed in experiments. We show that our stochastic lattice model yields quantitative agreement with mean-field models of nonlinear diffusion in crowded membranes. Through a combination of analytic and numerical solutions of the master equation governing the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains, together with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, we find substantial discrepancies between mean-field and stochastic models for the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains. Based on the reaction and diffusion properties of synaptic receptors and scaffolds suggested by previous experiments and mean-field calculations, we show that the stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of synaptic receptors and scaffolds provide a simple physical mechanism for collective fluctuations in synaptic domains, the molecular turnover observed at synaptic domains, key features of the observed single-molecule trajectories, and spatial heterogeneity in the effective rates at which receptors and scaffolds are recycled at the cell membrane. Our work sheds light on the physical mechanisms and principles linking the collective properties of membrane protein domains to the stochastic dynamics that rule their molecular components.
Stochastic lattice model of synaptic membrane protein domains.
Li, Yiwei; Kahraman, Osman; Haselwandter, Christoph A
2017-05-01
Neurotransmitter receptor molecules, concentrated in synaptic membrane domains along with scaffolds and other kinds of proteins, are crucial for signal transmission across chemical synapses. In common with other membrane protein domains, synaptic domains are characterized by low protein copy numbers and protein crowding, with rapid stochastic turnover of individual molecules. We study here in detail a stochastic lattice model of the receptor-scaffold reaction-diffusion dynamics at synaptic domains that was found previously to capture, at the mean-field level, the self-assembly, stability, and characteristic size of synaptic domains observed in experiments. We show that our stochastic lattice model yields quantitative agreement with mean-field models of nonlinear diffusion in crowded membranes. Through a combination of analytic and numerical solutions of the master equation governing the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains, together with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, we find substantial discrepancies between mean-field and stochastic models for the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains. Based on the reaction and diffusion properties of synaptic receptors and scaffolds suggested by previous experiments and mean-field calculations, we show that the stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of synaptic receptors and scaffolds provide a simple physical mechanism for collective fluctuations in synaptic domains, the molecular turnover observed at synaptic domains, key features of the observed single-molecule trajectories, and spatial heterogeneity in the effective rates at which receptors and scaffolds are recycled at the cell membrane. Our work sheds light on the physical mechanisms and principles linking the collective properties of membrane protein domains to the stochastic dynamics that rule their molecular components.
Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission
Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy
2018-03-01
Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.
A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination
Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming
2017-11-01
In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.
Interactive macroeconomics stochastic aggregate dynamics with heterogeneous and interacting agents
Di Guilmi, Corrado
2017-01-01
One of the major problems of macroeconomic theory is the way in which the people exchange goods in decentralized market economies. There are major disagreements among macroeconomists regarding tools to influence required outcomes. Since the mainstream efficient market theory fails to provide an internal coherent framework, there is a need for an alternative theory. The book provides an innovative approach for the analysis of agent based models, populated by the heterogeneous and interacting agents in the field of financial fragility. The text is divided in two parts; the first presents analytical developments of stochastic aggregation and macro-dynamics inference methods. The second part introduces macroeconomic models of financial fragility for complex systems populated by heterogeneous and interacting agents. The concepts of financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics are explained in detail in separate chapters. The statistical physics approach is applied to explain theories of macroeconomic modelling a...
Moment Closure for the Stochastic Logistic Model
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Singh, Abhyudai; Hespanha, Joao P
2006-01-01
..., which we refer to as the moment closure function. In this paper, a systematic procedure for constructing moment closure functions of arbitrary order is presented for the stochastic logistic model...
Han, Shurong; Huang, Yeqing
2017-07-07
The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.
Stochastic Modelling of Energy Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae
2001-01-01
In this thesis dynamic models of typical components in Danish heating systems are considered. Emphasis is made on describing and evaluating mathematical methods for identification of such models, and on presentation of component models for practical applications. The thesis consists of seven...... of component models, such as e.g. heat exchanger and valve models, adequate for system simulations. Furthermore, the thesis demonstrates and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of using statistical methods in conjunction with physical knowledge in establishing adequate component models of heating...... research papers (case studies) together with a summary report. Each case study takes it's starting point in typical heating system components and both, the applied mathematical modelling methods and the application aspects, are considered. The summary report gives an introduction to the scope...
Stochastic modeling for environmental stress screening
Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim
2014-01-01
Environmental stress screening (ESS) of manufactured items is used to reduce the occurrence of future failures that are caused by latent defects by eliminating the items with these defects. Some practical descriptions of the relevant ESS procedures can be found in the literature; however, the appropriate stochastic modeling and the corresponding thorough analysis have not been reported. In this paper we develop a stochastic model for the ESS, analyze the effect of this operation o...
Modelling Cow Behaviour Using Stochastic Automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jónsson, Ragnar Ingi
This report covers an initial study on the modelling of cow behaviour using stochastic automata with the aim of detecting lameness. Lameness in cows is a serious problem that needs to be dealt with because it results in less profitable production units and in reduced quality of life...... for the affected livestock. By featuring training data consisting of measurements of cow activity, three different models are obtained, namely an autonomous stochastic automaton, a stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output and an autonomous stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output, all...... of which describe the cows' activity in the two regarded behavioural scenarios, non-lame and lame. Using the experimental measurement data the different behavioural relations for the two regarded behavioural scenarios are assessed. The three models comprise activity within last hour, activity within last...
An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernández, Juan Antonio; Benito, Rosa Marı´a; Losada, Juan Carlos
2012-01-01
An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katie Ovens
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Delta checks use two specimen test results taken in succession in order to detect test result changes greater than expected physiological variation. One of the most common and serious errors detected by delta checks is specimen mix-up errors. The positive and negative predictive values of delta checks for detecting specimen mix-up errors, however, are largely unknown. Materials and Methods: We addressed this question by first constructing a stochastic dynamic model using repeat test values for five analytes from approximately 8000 inpatients in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The analytes examined were sodium, potassium, chloride, bicarbonate, and creatinine. The model simulated specimen mix-up errors by randomly switching a set number of pairs of second test results. Sensitivities and specificities were then calculated for each analyte for six combinations of delta check equations and cut-off values from the published literature. Results: Delta check specificities obtained from this model ranged from 50% to 99%; however the sensitivities were generally below 20% with the exception of creatinine for which the best performing delta check had a sensitivity of 82.8%. Within a plausible incidence range of specimen mix-ups the positive predictive values of even the best performing delta check equation and analyte became negligible. Conclusion: This finding casts doubt on the ongoing clinical utility of delta checks in the setting of low rates of specimen mix-ups.
Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay
2001-01-01
A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...
Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage
Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo
2010-09-01
Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.
Zhao, Nan
2018-02-01
The origin of winter Northern Hemispheric low-frequency variability (hereafter, LFV) is regarded to be related to the coupled earth-atmosphere system characterized by the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges. On the other hand, observed LFV usually appears as transitions among multiple planetary-scale flow regimes of Northern Hemisphere like NAO + , AO +, AO - and NAO - . Moreover, the interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the planetary-scale disturbance is also inevitable in the origin of LFV. These raise a question regarding how to incorporate all these aspects into just one framework to demonstrate (1) a planetary-scale dynamics of interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges can really produce LFV, (2) such a dynamics can be responsible for the existence of above multiple flow regimes, and (3) the role of interaction with eddy is also clarified. For this purpose, a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of the coupled earth-atmosphere system derived empirically from different timescale ranges of indices of Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and length of day (LOD) and related probability density function (PDF) analysis are employed in this study. The results seem to suggest that the origin of LFV cannot be understood completely within the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges, because (1) the existence of multiple flow regimes such as NAO+, AO+, AO- and NAO- resulted from processes with timescales much longer than LFV itself, which may have underlying dynamics other than topography-jet stream interaction, and (2) we find LFV seems not necessarily to come directly from the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain, although it can produce similar oscillatory behavior. The feedback/forcing of synoptic-scale eddies on the planetary
Stochasticity and Spatial Interaction Govern Stem Cell Differentiation Dynamics
Smith, Quinton; Stukalin, Evgeny; Kusuma, Sravanti; Gerecht, Sharon; Sun, Sean X.
2015-07-01
Stem cell differentiation underlies many fundamental processes such as development, tissue growth and regeneration, as well as disease progression. Understanding how stem cell differentiation is controlled in mixed cell populations is an important step in developing quantitative models of cell population dynamics. Here we focus on quantifying the role of cell-cell interactions in determining stem cell fate. Toward this, we monitor stem cell differentiation in adherent cultures on micropatterns and collect statistical cell fate data. Results show high cell fate variability and a bimodal probability distribution of stem cell fraction on small (80-140 μm diameter) micropatterns. On larger (225-500 μm diameter) micropatterns, the variability is also high but the distribution of the stem cell fraction becomes unimodal. Using a stochastic model, we analyze the differentiation dynamics and quantitatively determine the differentiation probability as a function of stem cell fraction. Results indicate that stem cells can interact and sense cellular composition in their immediate neighborhood and adjust their differentiation probability accordingly. Blocking epithelial cadherin (E-cadherin) can diminish this cell-cell contact mediated sensing. For larger micropatterns, cell motility adds a spatial dimension to the picture. Taken together, we find stochasticity and cell-cell interactions are important factors in determining cell fate in mixed cell populations.
Hybrid Semantics of Stochastic Programs with Dynamic Reconfiguration
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Alberto Policriti
2009-10-01
Full Text Available We begin by reviewing a technique to approximate the dynamics of stochastic programs --written in a stochastic process algebra-- by a hybrid system, suitable to capture a mixed discrete/continuous evolution. In a nutshell, the discrete dynamics is kept stochastic while the continuous evolution is given in terms of ODEs, and the overall technique, therefore, naturally associates a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process with a stochastic program. The speciﬁc contribution in this work consists in an increase of the ﬂexibility of the translation scheme, obtained by allowing a dynamic reconﬁguration of the degree of discreteness/continuity of the semantics. We also discuss the relationships of this approach with other hybrid simulation strategies for biochemical systems.
Quantitative sociodynamics stochastic methods and models of social interaction processes
Helbing, Dirk
1995-01-01
Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioural changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics but they have very often proved their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces the most important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches a very fundamental dynamic model is obtained which seems to open new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models as special cases, e.g. the log...
Quantitative Sociodynamics Stochastic Methods and Models of Social Interaction Processes
Helbing, Dirk
2010-01-01
This new edition of Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioral changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics and mathematics, but they have very often proven their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences as well. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (e.g. synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches, a fundamental dynamic model is obtained, which opens new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models a...
On the Robustness of Temporal Properties for Stochastic Models
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Ezio Bartocci
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Stochastic models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC and Stochastic Hybrid Automata (SHA are powerful formalisms to model and to reason about the dynamics of biological systems, due to their ability to capture the stochasticity inherent in biological processes. A classical question in formal modelling with clear relevance to biological modelling is the model checking problem. i.e. calculate the probability that a behaviour, expressed for instance in terms of a certain temporal logic formula, may occur in a given stochastic process. However, one may not only be interested in the notion of satisfiability, but also in the capacity of a system to mantain a particular emergent behaviour unaffected by the perturbations, caused e.g. from extrinsic noise, or by possible small changes in the model parameters. To address this issue, researchers from the verification community have recently proposed several notions of robustness for temporal logic providing suitable definitions of distance between a trajectory of a (deterministic dynamical system and the boundaries of the set of trajectories satisfying the property of interest. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, we extend the notion of robustness to stochastic systems, showing that this naturally leads to a distribution of robustness scores. By discussing two examples, we show how to approximate the distribution of the robustness score and its key indicators: the average robustness and the conditional average robustness. Secondly, we show how to combine these indicators with the satisfaction probability to address the system design problem, where the goal is to optimize some control parameters of a stochastic model in order to best maximize robustness of the desired specifications.
Stochastic Modeling of Traffic Air Pollution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thoft-Christensen, Palle
2014-01-01
In this paper, modeling of traffic air pollution is discussed with special reference to infrastructures. A number of subjects related to health effects of air pollution and the different types of pollutants are briefly presented. A simple model for estimating the social cost of traffic related air...... and using simple Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a stochastic estimate of the costs of traffic air pollution for infrastructures....... pollution is derived. Several authors have published papers on this very complicated subject, but no stochastic modelling procedure have obtained general acceptance. The subject is discussed basis of a deterministic model. However, it is straightforward to modify this model to include uncertain parameters...
Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Granita; Bahar, Arifah
2015-01-01
The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution
Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)
2015-10-22
The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.
Stochastic modeling of wetland-groundwater systems
Bertassello, Leonardo Enrico; Rao, P. Suresh C.; Park, Jeryang; Jawitz, James W.; Botter, Gianluca
2018-02-01
Modeling and data analyses were used in this study to examine the temporal hydrological variability in geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), as influenced by hydrologic connectivity to shallow groundwater, wetland bathymetry, and subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing. We examined the general case of GIWs coupled to shallow groundwater through exfiltration or infiltration across wetland bottom. We also examined limiting case with the wetland stage as the local expression of the shallow groundwater. We derive analytical expressions for the steady-state probability density functions (pdfs) for wetland water storage and stage using few, scaled, physically-based parameters. In addition, we analyze the hydrologic crossing time properties of wetland stage, and the dependence of the mean hydroperiod on climatic and wetland morphologic attributes. Our analyses show that it is crucial to account for shallow groundwater connectivity to fully understand the hydrologic dynamics in wetlands. The application of the model to two different case studies in Florida, jointly with a detailed sensitivity analysis, allowed us to identify the main drivers of hydrologic dynamics in GIWs under different climate and morphologic conditions.
Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States)
2016-03-14
We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.
Evolution of Cooperation on Stochastic Dynamical Networks
Wu, Bin; Zhou, Da; Fu, Feng; Luo, Qingjun; Wang, Long; Traulsen, Arne
2010-01-01
Cooperative behavior that increases the fitness of others at a cost to oneself can be promoted by natural selection only in the presence of an additional mechanism. One such mechanism is based on population structure, which can lead to clustering of cooperating agents. Recently, the focus has turned to complex dynamical population structures such as social networks, where the nodes represent individuals and links represent social relationships. We investigate how the dynamics of a social network can change the level of cooperation in the network. Individuals either update their strategies by imitating their partners or adjust their social ties. For the dynamics of the network structure, a random link is selected and breaks with a probability determined by the adjacent individuals. Once it is broken, a new one is established. This linking dynamics can be conveniently characterized by a Markov chain in the configuration space of an ever-changing network of interacting agents. Our model can be analytically solved provided the dynamics of links proceeds much faster than the dynamics of strategies. This leads to a simple rule for the evolution of cooperation: The more fragile links between cooperating players and non-cooperating players are (or the more robust links between cooperators are), the more likely cooperation prevails. Our approach may pave the way for analytically investigating coevolution of strategy and structure. PMID:20614025
Level Crossing Methods in Stochastic Models
Brill, Percy H
2008-01-01
Since its inception in 1974, the level crossing approach for analyzing a large class of stochastic models has become increasingly popular among researchers. This volume traces the evolution of level crossing theory for obtaining probability distributions of state variables and demonstrates solution methods in a variety of stochastic models including: queues, inventories, dams, renewal models, counter models, pharmacokinetics, and the natural sciences. Results for both steady-state and transient distributions are given, and numerous examples help the reader apply the method to solve problems fa
Infinite-degree-corrected stochastic block model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herlau, Tue; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten
2014-01-01
In stochastic block models, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman [Karrer and Newman...... corrected stochastic block model as a nonparametric Bayesian model, incorporating a parameter to control the amount of degree correction that can then be inferred from data. Additionally, our formulation yields principled ways of inferring the number of groups as well as predicting missing links...
Precharattana, Monamorn; Nokkeaw, Arthorn; Triampo, Wannapong; Triampo, Darapond; Lenbury, Yongwimon
2011-07-01
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is responsible for millions of deaths worldwide. To date, many drug treatment regimens have been applied to AIDS patients but none has resulted in a successful cure. This is mainly due to the fact that free HIV particles are frequently in mutation, and infected CD4(+) T cells normally reside in the lymphoid tissue where they cannot (so far) be eradicated. We present a stochastic cellular automaton (CA) model to computationally study what could be an alternative treatment, namely Leukapheresis (LCAP), to remove HIV infected leukocytes in the lymphoid tissue. We base our investigations on Monte Carlo computer simulations. Our major objective is to investigate how the number of infected CD4(+) T cells changes in response to LCAP during the short-time (weeks) and long-time (years) scales of HIV/AIDS progression in an infected individual. To achieve our goal, we analyze the time evolution of the CD4(+) T cell population in the lymphoid tissue (i.e., the lymph node) for HIV dynamics in treatment situations with various starting times and frequencies and under a no treatment condition. Our findings suggest that the effectiveness of the treatment depends mainly on the treatment starting time and the frequency of the LCAP. Other factors (e.g., the removal proportion, the treatment duration, and the state of removed cells) that likely influence disease progression are subjects for further investigation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elston Timothy C
2004-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. Results We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS for efficientlyand accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solvesthe appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. Conclusions We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.
Response spectrum analysis of a stochastic seismic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kimura, Koji; Sakata, Masaru; Takemoto, Shinichiro.
1990-01-01
The stochastic response spectrum approach is presented for predicting the dynamic behavior of structures to earthquake excitation expressed by a random process, one of whose sample functions can be regarded as a recorded strong-motion earthquake accelerogram. The approach consists of modeling recorded ground motion by a random process and the root-mean-square response (rms) analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom system by using the moment equations method. The stochastic response spectrum is obtained as a plot of the maximum rms response versus the natural period of the system and is compared with the conventional response spectrum. (author)
Deterministic and stochastic models for middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS)
Suryani, Dessy Rizki; Zevika, Mona; Nuraini, Nuning
2018-03-01
World Health Organization (WHO) data stated that since September 2012, there were 1,733 cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) with 628 death cases that occurred in 27 countries. MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and the largest cases of MERS outside Saudi Arabia occurred in South Korea in 2015. MERS is a disease that attacks the respiratory system caused by infection of MERS-CoV. MERS-CoV transmission occurs directly through direct contact between infected individual with non-infected individual or indirectly through contaminated object by the free virus. Suspected, MERS can spread quickly because of the free virus in environment. Mathematical modeling is used to illustrate the transmission of MERS disease using deterministic model and stochastic model. Deterministic model is used to investigate the temporal dynamic from the system to analyze the steady state condition. Stochastic model approach using Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is used to predict the future states by using random variables. From the models that were built, the threshold value for deterministic models and stochastic models obtained in the same form and the probability of disease extinction can be computed by stochastic model. Simulations for both models using several of different parameters are shown, and the probability of disease extinction will be compared with several initial conditions.
The Theory of Dynamic Public Transit Priority with Dynamic Stochastic Park and Ride
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengming Zhu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Public transit priority is very important for relieving traffic congestion. The connotation of dynamic public transit priority and dynamic stochastic park and ride is presented. Based on the point that the travel cost of public transit is not higher than the travel cost of car, how to determine the level of dynamic public transit priority is discussed. The traffic organization method of dynamic public transit priority is introduced. For dynamic stochastic park and ride, layout principle, scale, and charging standard are discussed. Traveler acceptability is high through the analysis of questionnaire survey. Dynamic public transit priority with dynamic stochastic park and ride has application feasibility.
Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz [Department of Nonlinear Modeling, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 2, 182 07 Prague 8 (Czech Republic); Paulescu, Marius [Physics Department, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara (Romania); Badescu, Viorel [Candida Oancea Institute, Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Spl. Independentei 313, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)
2013-11-13
In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar
Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel
2013-01-01
In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar
Safety Analysis of Stochastic Dynamical Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sloth, Christoffer; Wisniewski, Rafael
2015-01-01
This paper presents a method for verifying the safety of a stochastic system. In particular, we show how to compute the largest set of initial conditions such that a given stochastic system is safe with probability p. To compute the set of initial conditions we rely on the moment method that via...... Haviland's theorem allows an infinite dimensional optimization problem on measures to be formulated as a polynomial optimization problem. Subsequently, the moment sequence is truncated (relaxed) to obtain a finite dimensional polynomial optimization problem. Finally, we provide an illustrative example...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Rubin; Yu Wei
2005-01-01
In this paper, we investigate how the population of neuronal oscillators deals with information and the dynamic evolution of neural coding when the external stimulation acts on it. Numerically computing method is used to describe the evolution process of neural coding in three-dimensioned space. The numerical result proves that only the suitable stimulation can change the coupling structure and plasticity of neurons
Stochastic Modelling Of The Repairable System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrzejczak Karol
2015-11-01
Full Text Available All reliability models consisting of random time factors form stochastic processes. In this paper we recall the definitions of the most common point processes which are used for modelling of repairable systems. Particularly this paper presents stochastic processes as examples of reliability systems for the support of the maintenance related decisions. We consider the simplest one-unit system with a negligible repair or replacement time, i.e., the unit is operating and is repaired or replaced at failure, where the time required for repair and replacement is negligible. When the repair or replacement is completed, the unit becomes as good as new and resumes operation. The stochastic modelling of recoverable systems constitutes an excellent method of supporting maintenance related decision-making processes and enables their more rational use.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akke Kok
Full Text Available Shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows improves metabolic health in early lactation and reduces management transitions for dairy cows. The success of implementation of these strategies depends on their impact on milk yield and farm profitability. Insight in these impacts is valuable for informed decision-making by farmers. The aim of this study was to investigate how shortening or omitting the dry period of dairy cows affects production and cash flows at the herd level, and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of milk, using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. The effects of dry period length on milk yield and calving interval assumed in this model were derived from actual performance of commercial dairy cows over multiple lactations. The model simulated lactations, and calving and culling events of individual cows for herds of 100 cows. Herds were simulated for 5 years with a dry period of 56 (conventional, 28 or 0 days (n = 50 herds each. Partial cash flows were computed from revenues from sold milk, calves, and culled cows, and costs from feed and rearing youngstock. Greenhouse gas emissions were computed using a life cycle approach. A dry period of 28 days reduced milk production of the herd by 3.0% in years 2 through 5, compared with a dry period of 56 days. A dry period of 0 days reduced milk production by 3.5% in years 3 through 5, after a dip in milk production of 6.9% in year 2. On average, dry periods of 28 and 0 days reduced partial cash flows by €1,249 and €1,632 per herd per year, and increased greenhouse gas emissions by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. Considering the potential for enhancing cow welfare, these negative impacts of shortening or omitting the dry period seem justifiable, and they might even be offset by improved health.
Hidden Symmetries of Stochastic Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Boyka Aneva
2007-05-01
Full Text Available In the matrix product states approach to $n$ species diffusion processes the stationary probability distribution is expressed as a matrix product state with respect to a quadratic algebra determined by the dynamics of the process. The quadratic algebra defines a noncommutative space with a $SU_q(n$ quantum group action as its symmetry. Boundary processes amount to the appearance of parameter dependent linear terms in the algebraic relations and lead to a reduction of the $SU_q(n$ symmetry. We argue that the boundary operators of the asymmetric simple exclusion process generate a tridiagonal algebra whose irriducible representations are expressed in terms of the Askey-Wilson polynomials. The Askey-Wilson algebra arises as a symmetry of the boundary problem and allows to solve the model exactly.
Stochastic persistence and stationary distribution in an SIS epidemic model with media coverage
Guo, Wenjuan; Cai, Yongli; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming
2018-02-01
This paper aims to study an SIS epidemic model with media coverage from a general deterministic model to a stochastic differential equation with environment fluctuation. Mathematically, we use the Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number R0s can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. Epidemiologically, we show that environment fluctuation can inhibit the occurrence of the disease, namely, in the case of disease persistence for the deterministic model, the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. So to a great extent the stochastic perturbation under media coverage affects the outbreak of the disease.
Some recent developments in stochastic volatility modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Nicolato, Elisa; Shephard, N.
2002-01-01
This paper reviews and puts in context some of our recent work on stochastic volatility (SV) modelling for financial economics. Here our main focus is on: (i) the relationship between subordination and SV, (ii) OU based volatility models, (iii) exact option pricing, (iv) realized power variation...
Stochastic models for turbulent reacting flows
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kerstein, A. [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA (United States)
1993-12-01
The goal of this program is to develop and apply stochastic models of various processes occurring within turbulent reacting flows in order to identify the fundamental mechanisms governing these flows, to support experimental studies of these flows, and to further the development of comprehensive turbulent reacting flow models.
Stochastic resonance in biological nonlinear evolution models
Dunkel, Jörn; Hilbert, Stefan; Schimansky-Geier, Lutz; Hänggi, Peter
2004-05-01
We investigate stochastic resonance in the nonlinear, one-dimensional Fisher-Eigen model (FEM), which represents an archetypal model for biological evolution based on a global coupling scheme. In doing so we consider different periodically driven fitness functions which govern the evolution of a biological phenotype population. For the case of a simple harmonic fitness function we are able to derive the exact analytic solution for the asymptotic probability density. A distinct feature of this solution is a phase lag between the driving signal and the linear response of the system. Furthermore, for more complex systems a general perturbation theory (linear response approximation) is put forward. Using the latter approach, we investigate stochastic resonance in terms of the spectral amplification measure for a quadratic, a quartic single-peaked, and for a bistable fitness function. Our analytical results are also compared with those of detailed numerical simulations. Our findings vindicate that stochastic resonance does occur in these nonlinear, globally coupled biological systems.
Qian, Hong
2011-06-01
The nonlinear dynamics of biochemical reactions in a small-sized system on the order of a cell are stochastic. Assuming spatial homogeneity, the populations of n molecular species follow a multi-dimensional birth-and-death process on {Z}^n . We introduce the Delbrück-Gillespie process, a continuous-time Markov jump process, whose Kolmogorov forward equation has been known as the chemical master equation, and whose stochastic trajectories can be computed via the Gillespie algorithm. Using simple models, we illustrate that a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations on {R}^n emerges in the infinite system size limit. For finite system size, transitions among multiple attractors of the nonlinear dynamical system are rare events with exponentially long transit times. There is a separation of time scales between the deterministic ODEs and the stochastic Markov jumps between attractors. No diffusion process can provide a global representation that is accurate on both short and long time scales for the nonlinear, stochastic population dynamics. On the short time scale and near deterministic stable fixed points, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Gaussian processes give linear stochastic dynamics that exhibit time-irreversible circular motion for open, driven chemical systems. Extending this individual stochastic behaviour-based nonlinear population theory of molecular species to other biological systems is discussed.
A stochastic differential equation model for transcriptional regulatory networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Quirk Michelle D
2007-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background This work explores the quantitative characteristics of the local transcriptional regulatory network based on the availability of time dependent gene expression data sets. The dynamics of the gene expression level are fitted via a stochastic differential equation model, yielding a set of specific regulators and their contribution. Results We show that a beta sigmoid function that keeps track of temporal parameters is a novel prototype of a regulatory function, with the effect of improving the performance of the profile prediction. The stochastic differential equation model follows well the dynamic of the gene expression levels. Conclusion When adapted to biological hypotheses and combined with a promoter analysis, the method proposed here leads to improved models of the transcriptional regulatory networks.
The stochastic network dynamics underlying perceptual discrimination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Genis Prat-Ortega
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The brain is able to interpret streams of high-dimensional ambiguous information and yield coherent percepts. The mechanisms governing sensory integration have been extensively characterized using time-varying visual stimuli (Britten et al. 1996; Roitman and Shadlen 2002, but some of the basic principles regarding the network dynamics underlying this process remain largely unknown. We captured the basic features of a neural integrator using three canonical one-dimensional models: (1 the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, (2 the Perfect Integrator (PI which is a particular case of the DDM where the bounds are set to infinity and (3 the double-well potential (DW which captures the dynamics of the attractor networks (Wang 2002; Roxin and Ledberg 2008. Although these models has been widely studied (Bogacz et al. 2006; Roxin and Ledberg 2008; Gold and Shadlen 2002, it has been difficult to experimentally discriminate among them because most of the observables measured are only quantitatively different among these models (e.g. psychometric curves. Here we aim to find experimentally measurable quantities that can yield qualitatively different behaviors depending on the nature of the underlying network dynamics. We examined the categorization dynamics of these models in response to fluctuating stimuli of different duration (T. On each time step, stimuli are drawn from a Gaussian distribution N(μ, σ and the two stimulus categories are defined by μ > 0 and μ < 0. Psychometric curves can therefore be obtained by quantifying the probability of the integrator to yield one category versus μ . We find however that varying σ can reveal more clearly the differences among the different integrators. In the small σ regime, both the DW and the DDM perform transient integration and exhibit a decaying stimulus reverse correlation kernel revealing a primacy effect (Nienborg and Cumming 2009; Wimmer et al. 2015 . In the large σ regime, the integration in the DDM
Exponential Stability of Stochastic Nonlinear Dynamical Price System with Delay
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenli Zhu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Based on Lyapunov stability theory, Itô formula, stochastic analysis, and matrix theory, we study the exponential stability of the stochastic nonlinear dynamical price system. Using Taylor's theorem, the stochastic nonlinear system with delay is reduced to an n-dimensional semilinear stochastic differential equation with delay. Some sufficient conditions of exponential stability and corollaries for such price system are established by virtue of Lyapunov function. The time delay upper limit is solved by using our theoretical results when the system is exponentially stable. Our theoretical results show that if the classical price Rayleigh equation is exponentially stable, so is its perturbed system with delay provided that both the time delay and the intensity of perturbations are small enough. Two examples are presented to illustrate our results.
Stochastic resonance in models of neuronal ensembles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chialvo, D.R.; Longtin, A.; Mueller-Gerkin, J.
1997-01-01
Two recently suggested mechanisms for the neuronal encoding of sensory information involving the effect of stochastic resonance with aperiodic time-varying inputs are considered. It is shown, using theoretical arguments and numerical simulations, that the nonmonotonic behavior with increasing noise of the correlation measures used for the so-called aperiodic stochastic resonance (ASR) scenario does not rely on the cooperative effect typical of stochastic resonance in bistable and excitable systems. Rather, ASR with slowly varying signals is more properly interpreted as linearization by noise. Consequently, the broadening of the open-quotes resonance curveclose quotes in the multineuron stochastic resonance without tuning scenario can also be explained by this linearization. Computation of the input-output correlation as a function of both signal frequency and noise for the model system further reveals conditions where noise-induced firing with aperiodic inputs will benefit from stochastic resonance rather than linearization by noise. Thus, our study clarifies the tuning requirements for the optimal transduction of subthreshold aperiodic signals. It also shows that a single deterministic neuron can perform as well as a network when biased into a suprathreshold regime. Finally, we show that the inclusion of a refractory period in the spike-detection scheme produces a better correlation between instantaneous firing rate and input signal. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society
Stochastic linear programming models, theory, and computation
Kall, Peter
2011-01-01
This new edition of Stochastic Linear Programming: Models, Theory and Computation has been brought completely up to date, either dealing with or at least referring to new material on models and methods, including DEA with stochastic outputs modeled via constraints on special risk functions (generalizing chance constraints, ICC’s and CVaR constraints), material on Sharpe-ratio, and Asset Liability Management models involving CVaR in a multi-stage setup. To facilitate use as a text, exercises are included throughout the book, and web access is provided to a student version of the authors’ SLP-IOR software. Additionally, the authors have updated the Guide to Available Software, and they have included newer algorithms and modeling systems for SLP. The book is thus suitable as a text for advanced courses in stochastic optimization, and as a reference to the field. From Reviews of the First Edition: "The book presents a comprehensive study of stochastic linear optimization problems and their applications. … T...
Modeling animal movements using stochastic differential equations
Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie
2004-01-01
We describe the use of bivariate stochastic differential equations (SDE) for modeling movements of 216 radiocollared female Rocky Mountain elk at the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range in northeastern Oregon. Spatially and temporally explicit vector fields were estimated using approximating difference equations and nonparametric regression techniques. Estimated...
Stochastic models for road traffic control
Kovács, P.
2016-01-01
In this dissertation we make use of the theories of stochastic processes and operations research to develop models and methods to be applied for the analysis and control of road traffic networks. Within this field three subjects are considered: individual routing, urban traffic light networks and
Stochastic Modeling Of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2014-01-01
reliable components are needed for wind turbine. In this paper focus is on reliability of critical components in drivetrain such as bearings and shafts. High failure rates of these components imply a need for more reliable components. To estimate the reliability of these components, stochastic models...
Stochastic modelling of migration from polyolefins
Helmroth, I.E.; Varekamp, C.; Dekker, M.
2005-01-01
A method is presented to predict diffusion coefficients in polyolefins using stochastic modelling. A large number of experimental diffusion coefficients, published in the literature as one dataset, was used to derive probability distributions of diffusion coefficients in the polymers low-density
Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects
Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip
2007-01-01
When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend
Stochastic Dynamics in Spatially Extended Physical and Biological Systems
Jafarpour, Farshid
In this thesis, I discuss three different problems of stochastic nature in spatially extended systems: (1) a noise induced mechanism for the emergence of biological homochirality in early life self-replicators, (2) the amplification effect of nonnormality on stochastic Turing patterns in reaction diffusion systems, and (3) the velocity statistics of edge dislocations in plastic deformation of crystalline material. In Part I, I present a new model for the origin of homochirality, the observed single-handedness of biological amino acids and sugars, in prebiotic self-replicator. Homochirality has long been attributed to autocatalysis, a frequently assumed precursor for self-replication. However, the stability of homochiral states in deterministic autocatalytic systems relies on cross inhibition of the two chiral states, an unlikely scenario for early life self-replicators. Here, I present a theory for a stochastic individual-level model of autocatalysis due to early life self-replicators. Without chiral inhibition, the racemic state is the global attractor of the deterministic dynamics, but intrinsic multiplicative noise stabilizes the homochiral states, in both well-mixed and spatially-extended systems. I conclude that autocatalysis is a viable mechanism for homochirality, without imposing additional nonlinearities such as chiral inhibition. In Part II, I study the amplification effect of nonnormality on the steady state amplitude of fluctuation-induced Turing patterns. The phenomenon occurs generally in Turing-like pattern forming systems such as reaction-diffusion systems, does not require a large separation of diffusion constant, and yields pattern whose amplitude can be orders of magnitude larger than the fluctuations that cause the patterns. The analytical treatment shows that patterns are amplified due to an interplay between noise, non-orthogonality of eigenvectors of the linear stability matrix, and a separation of time scales, all built-in feature of
Stochastic forward and inverse groundwater flow and solute transport modeling
Janssen, G.M.C.M.
2008-01-01
Keywords: calibration, inverse modeling, stochastic modeling, nonlinear biodegradation, stochastic-convective, advective-dispersive, travel time, network design, non-Gaussian distribution, multimodal distribution, representers
This thesis offers three new approaches that contribute
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shaolin Ji
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is devoted to a stochastic differential game (SDG of decoupled functional forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE. For our SDG, the associated upper and lower value functions of the SDG are defined through the solution of controlled functional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs. Applying the Girsanov transformation method introduced by Buckdahn and Li (2008, the upper and the lower value functions are shown to be deterministic. We also generalize the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs (HJBI equations to the path-dependent ones. By establishing the dynamic programming principal (DPP, we derive that the upper and the lower value functions are the viscosity solutions of the corresponding upper and the lower path-dependent HJBI equations, respectively.
Noussair, C.N.; Pfajfar, D.; Zsiros, J.
2011-01-01
New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are the principal paradigm currently employed for central bank policymaking. In this paper, we construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with the structure of a New Keynesian DSGE model. We give individuals monetary
Stochastic models in reliability and maintenance
2002-01-01
Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which cla...
A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte
2017-01-01
surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous-time state......Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic...... and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete-time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust...
Reformulation of a stochastic action principle for irregular dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Q.A.; Bangoup, S.; Dzangue, F.; Jeatsa, A.; Tsobnang, F.; Le Mehaute, A.
2009-01-01
A stochastic action principle for random dynamics is revisited. Numerical diffusion experiments are carried out to show that the diffusion path probability depends exponentially on the Lagrangian action A=∫ a b Ldt. This result is then used to derive the Shannon measure for path uncertainty. It is shown that the maximum entropy principle and the least action principle of classical mechanics can be unified into δA-bar=0 where the average is calculated over all possible paths of the stochastic motion between two configuration points a and b. It is argued that this action principle and the maximum entropy principle are a consequence of the mechanical equilibrium condition extended to the case of stochastic dynamics.
Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory
Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.
2017-08-01
The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.
Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)
2016-06-02
This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.
Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.
Regular and stochastic particle motion in plasma dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaufman, A.N.
1979-08-01
A Hamiltonian formalism is presented for the study of charged-particle trajectories in the self-consistent field of the particles. The intention is to develop a general approach to plasma dynamics. Transformations of phase-space variables are used to separate out the regular, adiabatic motion from the irregular, stochastic trajectories. Several new techniques are included in this presentation
On the dynamic buckling of stochastically imperfect finite cylindrical ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The dynamic buckling load of stochastically imperfect finite right circular cylindrical shells subjected to step loading is determined by means of regular perturbation procedures .The imperfection is assumed to be a Gaussian random function of position and consequently is homogeneous. The result obtained is implicit in the ...
Data-driven stochastic modelling of zebrafish locomotion.
Zienkiewicz, Adam; Barton, David A W; Porfiri, Maurizio; di Bernardo, Mario
2015-11-01
In this work, we develop a data-driven modelling framework to reproduce the locomotion of fish in a confined environment. Specifically, we highlight the primary characteristics of the motion of individual zebrafish (Danio rerio), and study how these can be suitably encapsulated within a mathematical framework utilising a limited number of calibrated model parameters. Using data captured from individual zebrafish via automated visual tracking, we develop a model using stochastic differential equations and describe fish as a self propelled particle moving in a plane. Based on recent experimental evidence of the importance of speed regulation in social behaviour, we extend stochastic models of fish locomotion by introducing experimentally-derived processes describing dynamic speed regulation. Salient metrics are defined which are then used to calibrate key parameters of coupled stochastic differential equations, describing both speed and angular speed of swimming fish. The effects of external constraints are also included, based on experimentally observed responses. Understanding the spontaneous dynamics of zebrafish using a bottom-up, purely data-driven approach is expected to yield a modelling framework for quantitative investigation of individual behaviour in the presence of various external constraints or biological assays.
Stochastic text models for music categorization
Pérez Sancho, Carlos; Rizo Valero, David; Iñesta Quereda, José Manuel
2008-01-01
Music genre meta-data is of paramount importance for the organization of music repositories. People use genre in a natural way when entering a music store or looking into music collections. Automatic genre classification has become a popular topic in music information retrieval research. This work brings to symbolic music recognition some technologies, like the stochastic language models, already successfully applied to text categorization. In this work we model chord progressions and melodie...
Stochastic models for atomic clocks
Barnes, J. A.; Jones, R. H.; Tryon, P. V.; Allan, D. W.
1983-01-01
For the atomic clocks used in the National Bureau of Standards Time Scales, an adequate model is the superposition of white FM, random walk FM, and linear frequency drift for times longer than about one minute. The model was tested on several clocks using maximum likelihood techniques for parameter estimation and the residuals were acceptably random. Conventional diagnostics indicate that additional model elements contribute no significant improvement to the model even at the expense of the added model complexity.
Molecular dynamics with deterministic and stochastic numerical methods
Leimkuhler, Ben
2015-01-01
This book describes the mathematical underpinnings of algorithms used for molecular dynamics simulation, including both deterministic and stochastic numerical methods. Molecular dynamics is one of the most versatile and powerful methods of modern computational science and engineering and is used widely in chemistry, physics, materials science and biology. Understanding the foundations of numerical methods means knowing how to select the best one for a given problem (from the wide range of techniques on offer) and how to create new, efficient methods to address particular challenges as they arise in complex applications. Aimed at a broad audience, this book presents the basic theory of Hamiltonian mechanics and stochastic differential equations, as well as topics including symplectic numerical methods, the handling of constraints and rigid bodies, the efficient treatment of Langevin dynamics, thermostats to control the molecular ensemble, multiple time-stepping, and the dissipative particle dynamics method...
Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik
2009-06-01
The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.
Stochastic Dynamics of Clay Translocation and Formation of Argillic Horizons
Calabrese, S.; Richter, D. D., Jr.; Porporato, A. M.
2017-12-01
The formation of argillic horizons in vertical soil profiles is mainly attributed to lessivage, namely the transport of clay from an upper E horizon to a deeper illuviated horizon. Because of the long timescales involved in this phenomenon, quantitative modeling is useful to explore the role of clay lessivage on soil formation and sub-surface clay accumulation. The limitations of detailed models of colloidal transport to short timescales make it necessary to resort to simple models. Here, we present a parsimonious model of clay transport in which lessivage is interpreted stochastically. Clay particles approach the soil surface at a speed equal to the erosion rate and are intermittently transported to deeper soil layers when percolation events occur or removed by erosion. Along with the evolution of clay particles trajectories, the model predicts the vertical clay profile, the depth of the B horizon, and the mean time to erosion. Dimensional analysis reveals the two dimensionless parameters governing the dynamics, leading to a new classification of soil types based on erosion rates and intensity of lessivage.
Stochastic Spectral Descent for Discrete Graphical Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlson, David; Hsieh, Ya-Ping; Collins, Edo; Carin, Lawrence; Cevher, Volkan
2015-01-01
Interest in deep probabilistic graphical models has in-creased in recent years, due to their state-of-the-art performance on many machine learning applications. Such models are typically trained with the stochastic gradient method, which can take a significant number of iterations to converge. Since the computational cost of gradient estimation is prohibitive even for modestly sized models, training becomes slow and practically usable models are kept small. In this paper we propose a new, largely tuning-free algorithm to address this problem. Our approach derives novel majorization bounds based on the Schatten- norm. Intriguingly, the minimizers of these bounds can be interpreted as gradient methods in a non-Euclidean space. We thus propose using a stochastic gradient method in non-Euclidean space. We both provide simple conditions under which our algorithm is guaranteed to converge, and demonstrate empirically that our algorithm leads to dramatically faster training and improved predictive ability compared to stochastic gradient descent for both directed and undirected graphical models.
Brain-inspired Stochastic Models and Implementations
Al-Shedivat, Maruan
2015-05-12
One of the approaches to building artificial intelligence (AI) is to decipher the princi- ples of the brain function and to employ similar mechanisms for solving cognitive tasks, such as visual perception or natural language understanding, using machines. The recent breakthrough, named deep learning, demonstrated that large multi-layer networks of arti- ficial neural-like computing units attain remarkable performance on some of these tasks. Nevertheless, such artificial networks remain to be very loosely inspired by the brain, which rich structures and mechanisms may further suggest new algorithms or even new paradigms of computation. In this thesis, we explore brain-inspired probabilistic mechanisms, such as neural and synaptic stochasticity, in the context of generative models. The two questions we ask here are: (i) what kind of models can describe a neural learning system built of stochastic components? and (ii) how can we implement such systems e ̆ciently? To give specific answers, we consider two well known models and the corresponding neural architectures: the Naive Bayes model implemented with a winner-take-all spiking neural network and the Boltzmann machine implemented in a spiking or non-spiking fashion. We propose and analyze an e ̆cient neuromorphic implementation of the stochastic neu- ral firing mechanism and study the e ̄ects of synaptic unreliability on learning generative energy-based models implemented with neural networks.
Numerical simulation of stochastic point kinetic equation in the dynamical system of nuclear reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saha Ray, S.
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► In this paper stochastic neutron point kinetic equations have been analyzed. ► Euler–Maruyama method and Strong Taylor 1.5 order method have been discussed. ► These methods are applied for the solution of stochastic point kinetic equations. ► Comparison between the results of these methods and others are presented in tables. ► Graphs for neutron and precursor sample paths are also presented. -- Abstract: In the present paper, the numerical approximation methods, applied to efficiently calculate the solution for stochastic point kinetic equations () in nuclear reactor dynamics, are investigated. A system of Itô stochastic differential equations has been analyzed to model the neutron density and the delayed neutron precursors in a point nuclear reactor. The resulting system of Itô stochastic differential equations are solved over each time-step size. The methods are verified by considering different initial conditions, experimental data and over constant reactivities. The computational results indicate that the methods are simple and suitable for solving stochastic point kinetic equations. In this article, a numerical investigation is made in order to observe the random oscillations in neutron and precursor population dynamics in subcritical and critical reactors.
Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets
Yamada, Kenta; Takayasu, Hideki; Ito, Takatoshi; Takayasu, Misako
2009-05-01
We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Dupačová, J.; Sladký, Karel
2002-01-01
Roč. 82, 11/12 (2002), s. 753-765 ISSN 0044-2267 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/99/0264; GA ČR GA402/99/1136; GA MŠk 113200008 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : multistage stochastic programs with recourse * dynamic programming * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2002
Stochastic relaxational dynamics applied to finance: towards non-equilibrium option pricing theory
Otto, Matthias
1999-01-01
Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et al.) considers fluctuations around this equilibrium state by introducing a relaxational dynamics with random noise for intermediate deviations called ``virtual'' arbitrage returns. In this work, the model is incorporated within a martingale pricing method for ...
Developing Itô stochastic differential equation models for neuronal signal transduction pathways.
Manninen, Tiina; Linne, Marja-Leena; Ruohonen, Keijo
2006-08-01
Mathematical modeling and simulation of dynamic biochemical systems are receiving considerable attention due to the increasing availability of experimental knowledge of complex intracellular functions. In addition to deterministic approaches, several stochastic approaches have been developed for simulating the time-series behavior of biochemical systems. The problem with stochastic approaches, however, is the larger computational time compared to deterministic approaches. It is therefore necessary to study alternative ways to incorporate stochasticity and to seek approaches that reduce the computational time needed for simulations, yet preserve the characteristic behavior of the system in question. In this work, we develop a computational framework based on the Itô stochastic differential equations for neuronal signal transduction networks. There are several different ways to incorporate stochasticity into deterministic differential equation models and to obtain Itô stochastic differential equations. Two of the developed models are found most suitable for stochastic modeling of neuronal signal transduction. The best models give stable responses which means that the variances of the responses with time are not increasing and negative concentrations are avoided. We also make a comparative analysis of different kinds of stochastic approaches, that is the Itô stochastic differential equations, the chemical Langevin equation, and the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm. Different kinds of stochastic approaches can be used to produce similar responses for the neuronal protein kinase C signal transduction pathway. The fine details of the responses vary slightly, depending on the approach and the parameter values. However, when simulating great numbers of chemical species, the Gillespie algorithm is computationally several orders of magnitude slower than the Itô stochastic differential equations and the chemical Langevin equation. Furthermore, the chemical
Mixed effects in stochastic differential equation models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Susanne; De Gaetano, Andrea
2005-01-01
maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes......maximum likelihood; pharmacokinetics; population estimates; random effects; repeated measurements; stochastic processes...
Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion
Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.
2014-06-01
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.
Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization Theory, Models and Applications
Wang, Shuming
2012-01-01
Covering in detail both theoretical and practical perspectives, this book is a self-contained and systematic depiction of current fuzzy stochastic optimization that deploys the fuzzy random variable as a core mathematical tool to model the integrated fuzzy random uncertainty. It proceeds in an orderly fashion from the requisite theoretical aspects of the fuzzy random variable to fuzzy stochastic optimization models and their real-life case studies. The volume reflects the fact that randomness and fuzziness (or vagueness) are two major sources of uncertainty in the real world, with significant implications in a number of settings. In industrial engineering, management and economics, the chances are high that decision makers will be confronted with information that is simultaneously probabilistically uncertain and fuzzily imprecise, and optimization in the form of a decision must be made in an environment that is doubly uncertain, characterized by a co-occurrence of randomness and fuzziness. This book begins...
A stochastic differential equation framework for the timewise dynamics of turbulent velocities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Schmiegel, Jürgen
2008-01-01
We discuss a stochastic differential equation as a modeling framework for the timewise dynamics of turbulent velocities. The equation is capable of capturing basic stylized facts of the statistics of temporal velocity increments. In particular, we focus on the evolution of the probability density...
Stochastic Model Checking of the Stochastic Quality Calculus
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Zeng, Kebin
2015-01-01
The Quality Calculus uses quality binders for input to express strategies for continuing the computation even when the desired input has not been received. The Stochastic Quality Calculus adds generally distributed delays for output actions and real-time constraints on the quality binders for input...
Kaniyamattam, K; Elzo, M A; Cole, J B; De Vries, A
2016-10-01
The objective of this study was to develop a daily stochastic dynamic dairy simulation model that included multitrait genetics and to evaluate the effects of reduced genetic models and various reproduction and selection strategies on the genetic, technical, and financial performance of a dairy herd. The 12 correlated genetic traits included in the 2014 lifetime net merit (NM$) index were modeled for each animal. For each animal, a true breeding value (TBV) for each trait was calculated as the average of the sire's and dam's TBV, plus a fraction of the inbreeding and Mendelian sampling variability. Similarly, an environmental component for each trait was calculated and was partitioned into a permanent and a daily (temporary) effect. The combined TBV and environmental effects were converted into the phenotypic performance of each animal. Hence, genetics and phenotypic performances were associated. Estimated breeding values (EBV) were also simulated. Genetic trends for each trait for the service sire were based on expected trends in US Holsteins. Surplus heifers were culled based on various ranking criteria to maintain a herd size of 1,000 milking cows. In the first 8 scenarios, culling of surplus heifers was either random or based on the EBV of NM$. Four different genetic models, depending on the presence or absence of genetic trends or genetic and environmental correlations, or both, were evaluated to measure the effect of excluding multitrait genetics on animal performance. In the last 5 scenarios, the full genetic model was used and culling of surplus heifers was either random or based on the EBV of NM$ or the EBV of milk. Sexed semen use and reliability of the EBV were also varied. Each scenario was simulated for 15yr into the future. Results showed that genetic models without all 12 genetic trends and genetic and environmental correlations provided biased estimates of the genetic, technical, and financial performance of the dairy herd. Average TBV of NM$ of all
Stochastic dynamics and Parrondo’s paradox
Behrends, Ehrhard
2008-02-01
The Spanish physicist Juan Parrondo has provided two stochastic losing games such that for certain stochastic combinations one may obtain a winning game. If a large number of players are involved and if they try to play such that their gain in the next round is maximized one arrives at the problem of investigating a random walk on a certain space of measures. The appropriate abstract setting is as follows. There is given a compact metric space (M,d), and M is written as the union of certain closed subsets A1,…,Ar. For every ρ=1,…,r there is prescribed a strict contraction Γρ:Aρ→M. A random walk ( on M is then defined as follows. The starting position is X0=x0, where x0∈M is fixed, and if the walk at the m’th step is at position Xm∈M, then one chooses a ρ among the ρ with Xm∈Aρ (with equal probability, say) and defines X as Γρ(Xm). Associated with the walk is a gainφ(Xm) in every round, where φ:M→R is a continuous function. The aim of the present investigations is the study of the expectation Gm of φ(Xm) as a function of m. Our main result states that the sequence (Gm) is “eventually approximately periodic” provided that all Aρ are not only closed but also open in M: for every ε there is an l0∈N such that (Gm) is l0-periodic up to an error of at most ε for sufficiently large m. In fact it turns out that the behaviour of our process can be described well with a finite Markov chain. In the general case, however, the process might behave rather chaotically. We give an example where M is the unit interval. M is written as the union of two closed subsets A1,A2, the contractions Γ1,Γ2 are rather simple, but the expectations of the gains are not even Cesáro convergent.
Stochastic Modelling of Seafloor Morphology
1990-06-01
year of a grad students life into one of the most enjoyable. I also thank Mom, Dad, Barbi , Ellie, Robbie, Dick and Jean, Trudy and Will, Grandma and...1981; 1986] and Sinton et al. [ 19831 on the basis of variations in crystal fractionation throughout the evolution of the Galapagos 95.50 W...propagator. It is also consistent with the tectonic model proposed by Kleinrock and Hey [1989] for the evolution of the same propagator. In their model
Stochastic models for time series
Doukhan, Paul
2018-01-01
This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...
Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar
2012-12-01
The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Modelling conjugation with stochastic differential equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Philipsen, Kirsten Riber; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Hasman, Henrik
2010-01-01
using a likelihood-ratio test and Akaike's information criterion. Experiments indicating conjugation on the agar plates selecting for transconjugants motivates the introduction of an extended model, for which conjugation on the agar plate is described in the measurement equation. This model is compared......Conjugation is an important mechanism involved in the transfer of resistance between bacteria. In this article a stochastic differential equation based model consisting of a continuous time state equation and a discrete time measurement equation is introduced to model growth and conjugation of two...
Stochastic dynamics of the prisoner's dilemma with cooperation facilitators
Mobilia, Mauro
2012-07-01
In the framework of the paradigmatic prisoner's dilemma game, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in the presence of “cooperation facilitators.” In our model, cooperators and defectors interact as in the classical prisoner's dilemma, where selection favors defection. However, here the presence of a small number of cooperation facilitators enhances the fitness (reproductive potential) of cooperators, while it does not alter that of defectors. In a finite population of size N, the dynamics of the prisoner's dilemma with facilitators is characterized by the probability that cooperation takes over (fixation probability) by the mean times to reach the absorbing states. These quantities are computed exactly using Fokker-Planck equations. Our findings, corroborated by stochastic simulations, demonstrate that the influence of facilitators crucially depends on the difference between their density z and the game's cost-to-benefit ratio r. When z>r, the fixation of cooperators is likely in a large population and, under weak selection pressure, invasion and replacement of defection by cooperation is favored by selection if b(z-r)(1-z)>N-1, where 0
A stochastic model for quantum measurement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Budiyono, Agung
2013-01-01
We develop a statistical model of microscopic stochastic deviation from classical mechanics based on a stochastic process with a transition probability that is assumed to be given by an exponential distribution of infinitesimal stationary action. We apply the statistical model to stochastically modify a classical mechanical model for the measurement of physical quantities reproducing the prediction of quantum mechanics. The system+apparatus always has a definite configuration at all times, as in classical mechanics, fluctuating randomly following a continuous trajectory. On the other hand, the wavefunction and quantum mechanical Hermitian operator corresponding to the physical quantity arise formally as artificial mathematical constructs. During a single measurement, the wavefunction of the whole system+apparatus evolves according to a Schrödinger equation and the configuration of the apparatus acts as the pointer of the measurement so that there is no wavefunction collapse. We will also show that while the outcome of each single measurement event does not reveal the actual value of the physical quantity prior to measurement, its average in an ensemble of identical measurements is equal to the average of the actual value of the physical quantity prior to measurement over the distribution of the configuration of the system. (paper)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, S.; Nørgaard, K.
2013-01-01
extension incorporating exercise effects on insulin and glucose dynamics. Our model is constructed as a stochastic state space model consisting of a set of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In a stochastic state space model, the residual error is split into random measurement error...... physical activity. Exercise constitutes a substantial challenge to closed-loop control of T1D. The effects are many and depend on intensity and duration and may be delayed by several hours. In this study, we use a model for the glucoregulatory system based on the minimal model and a previously published...
The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation
Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei
2017-06-01
A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.
Inter-species competition-facilitation in stochastic riparian vegetation dynamics.
Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca
2013-02-07
Riparian vegetation is a highly dynamic community that lives on river banks and which depends to a great extent on the fluvial hydrology. The stochasticity of the discharge and erosion/deposition processes in fact play a key role in determining the distribution of vegetation along a riparian transect. These abiotic processes interact with biotic competition/facilitation mechanisms, such as plant competition for light, water, and nutrients. In this work, we focus on the dynamics of plants characterized by three components: (1) stochastic forcing due to river discharges, (2) competition for resources, and (3) inter-species facilitation due to the interplay between vegetation and fluid dynamics processes. A minimalist stochastic bio-hydrological model is proposed for the dynamics of the biomass of two vegetation species: one species is assumed dominant and slow-growing, the other is subdominant, but fast-growing. The stochastic model is solved analytically and the probability density function of the plant biomasses is obtained as a function of both the hydrologic and biologic parameters. The impact of the competition/facilitation processes on the distribution of vegetation species along the riparian transect is investigated and remarkable effects are observed. Finally, a good qualitative agreement is found between the model results and field data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dynamics and Physiological Roles of Stochastic Firing Patterns Near Bifurcation Points
Jia, Bing; Gu, Huaguang
2017-06-01
Different stochastic neural firing patterns or rhythms that appeared near polarization or depolarization resting states were observed in biological experiments on three nervous systems, and closely matched those simulated near bifurcation points between stable equilibrium point and limit cycle in a theoretical model with noise. The distinct dynamics of spike trains and interspike interval histogram (ISIH) of these stochastic rhythms were identified and found to build a relationship to the coexisting behaviors or fixed firing frequency of four different types of bifurcations. Furthermore, noise evokes coherence resonances near bifurcation points and plays important roles in enhancing information. The stochastic rhythms corresponding to Hopf bifurcation points with fixed firing frequency exhibited stronger coherence degree and a sharper peak in the power spectrum of the spike trains than those corresponding to saddle-node bifurcation points without fixed firing frequency. Moreover, the stochastic firing patterns changed to a depolarization resting state as the extracellular potassium concentration increased for the injured nerve fiber related to pathological pain or static blood pressure level increased for aortic depressor nerve fiber, and firing frequency decreased, which were different from the physiological viewpoint that firing frequency increased with increasing pressure level or potassium concentration. This shows that rhythms or firing patterns can reflect pressure or ion concentration information related to pathological pain information. Our results present the dynamics of stochastic firing patterns near bifurcation points, which are helpful for the identification of both dynamics and physiological roles of complex neural firing patterns or rhythms, and the roles of noise.
A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leda D. Minkova
1996-01-01
Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.
On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eduardo Ferrandis
2007-03-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a
A spatially structured metapopulation model within a stochastic environment.
Smith, Andrew G
2017-09-01
Populations often exist, either by choice or by external pressure, in a fragmented way, referred to as a metapopulation. Typically, the dynamics accounted for within metapopulation models are assumed to be static. For example, patch occupancy models often assume that the colonisation and extinction rates do not change, while spatially structured models often assume that the rates of births, deaths and migrations do not depend on time. While some progress has been made when these dynamics are changing deterministically, less is known when the changes are stochastic. It can be quite common that the environment a population inhabits determines how these dynamics change over time. Changes to this environment can have a large impact on the survival probability of a population and such changes will often be stochastic. The typical metapopulation model allows for catastrophes that could eradicate most, if not all, individuals on an entire patch. It is this type of phenomenon that this article addresses. A Markov process is developed that models the number of individuals on each patch within a metapopulation. An approximation for the original model is presented in the form of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process and the approximation is analysed to present conditions for extinction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Stochastic Model of TCP SYN Attacks
Simona Ramanauskaitė; Antanas Čenys
2011-01-01
A great proportion of essential services are moving into internet space making the threat of DoS attacks even more actual. To estimate the real risk of some kind of denial of service (DoS) attack in real world is difficult, but mathematical and software models make this task easier. In this paper we overview the ways of implementing DoS attack models and offer a stochastic model of SYN flooding attack. It allows evaluating the potential threat of SYN flooding attacks, taking into account both...
Stochastic hyperelastic modeling considering dependency of material parameters
Caylak, Ismail; Penner, Eduard; Dridger, Alex; Mahnken, Rolf
2018-03-01
This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyperelastic model by treating random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is used. An important aspect in our work is the consideration of stochastic dependencies in the stochastic modeling of Ogden's material model. To this end, artificial experiments are generated using the auto-regressive moving average process based on real experiments. The parameter identification for all data provides statistics of Ogden's material parameters, which are subsequently used for stochastic modeling. Stochastic dependencies are incorporated into the PCE using a Nataf transformation from dependent distributed random variables to independent standard normal distributed ones. The representative numerical example shows that our proposed method adequately takes into account the stochastic dependencies of Ogden's material parameters.
Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
2010-01-01
This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...
Dynamically orthogonal field equations for stochastic flows and particle dynamics
2011-02-01
fields implies orthogonality of their spatial Fourier, Gabor, and Wavelet transforms [5], [35]. Therefore, different DO modes always contain different...modes stochastic solution u (x, t;ω) to the stochastic subspace computed using the five modes solution, i.e. σ2i (t) = var [〈u (x, t;ω) ,vi (x, t...Antoine, R. Murenzi, P. Vandergheynst, and S.T. Ali. Two-dimensional wavelets and their relatives. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [6] V.I. Arnold and
Modeling stochastic frontier based on vine copulas
Constantino, Michel; Candido, Osvaldo; Tabak, Benjamin M.; da Costa, Reginaldo Brito
2017-11-01
This article models a production function and analyzes the technical efficiency of listed companies in the United States, Germany and England between 2005 and 2012 based on the vine copula approach. Traditional estimates of the stochastic frontier assume that data is multivariate normally distributed and there is no source of asymmetry. The proposed method based on vine copulas allow us to explore different types of asymmetry and multivariate distribution. Using data on product, capital and labor, we measure the relative efficiency of the vine production function and estimate the coefficient used in the stochastic frontier literature for comparison purposes. This production vine copula predicts the value added by firms with given capital and labor in a probabilistic way. It thereby stands in sharp contrast to the production function, where the output of firms is completely deterministic. The results show that, on average, S&P500 companies are more efficient than companies listed in England and Germany, which presented similar average efficiency coefficients. For comparative purposes, the traditional stochastic frontier was estimated and the results showed discrepancies between the coefficients obtained by the application of the two methods, traditional and frontier-vine, opening new paths of non-linear research.
Stochastic differential equations used to model conjugation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Philipsen, Kirsten Riber; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo
be split into measurement noise and system noise. The system noise is used to compensate for those biological processes not explicitly described by the model. Many authors model conjugation by a simple mass action model first proposed by Levin et al. (1979). Also Michaelis-Menten dependence...... by an experiment conducted with E. faecium. In addition, we suggest that a 3rd order time-delay must be included in the model to account for the delay before a newly conjugated plasmid is expressed. A ML estimate of the parameters based on experimental data is found using the software CTSM. The conjugation rate......Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are used to model horizontal transfer of antibiotic resis- tance by conjugation. The model describes the concentration of donor, recipient, transconjugants and substrate. The strength of the SDE model over the traditional ODE models is that the noise can...
Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2016-01-01
deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs......) for modeling and forecasting. It is argued that this gives models and predictions which better reflect reality. The SDE approach also offers a more adequate framework for modeling and a number of efficient tools for model building. A software package (CTSM-R) for SDE-based modeling is briefly described....... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...
Can Household Benefit from Stochastic Programming Models?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Madsen, Claus A.; Poulsen, Rolf
2014-01-01
The Danish mortgage market is large and sophisticated. However, most Danish mortgage banks advise private home-owners based on simple, if sensible, rules of thumb. In recent years a number of papers (from Nielsen and Poulsen in J Econ Dyn Control 28:1267–1289, 2004 over Rasmussen and Zenios in J...... Risk 10:1–18, 2007 to Pedersen et al. in Ann Oper Res, 2013) have suggested a model-based, stochastic programming approach to mortgage choice. This paper gives an empirical comparison of performance over the period 2000–2010 of the rules of thumb to the model-based strategies. While the rules of thumb...
Stochastic sensitivity of a bistable energy model for visual perception
Pisarchik, Alexander N.; Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev
2017-01-01
Modern trends in physiology, psychology and cognitive neuroscience suggest that noise is an essential component of brain functionality and self-organization. With adequate noise the brain as a complex dynamical system can easily access different ordered states and improve signal detection for decision-making by preventing deadlocks. Using a stochastic sensitivity function approach, we analyze how sensitive equilibrium points are to Gaussian noise in a bistable energy model often used for qualitative description of visual perception. The probability distribution of noise-induced transitions between two coexisting percepts is calculated at different noise intensity and system stability. Stochastic squeezing of the hysteresis range and its transition from positive (bistable regime) to negative (intermittency regime) are demonstrated as the noise intensity increases. The hysteresis is more sensitive to noise in the system with higher stability.
Dynamic asset allocation for bank under stochastic interest rates.
Chakroun, Fatma; Abid, Fathi
2014-01-01
This paper considers the optimal asset allocation strategy for bank with stochastic interest rates when there are three types of asset: Bank account, loans and securities. The asset allocation problem is to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth of a bank's shareholders over a finite time horizon. As a consequence, we apply a dynamic programming principle to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation explicitly in the case of the CRRA utility function. A case study is given ...
Stochastic Feshbach Projection for the Dynamics of Open Quantum Systems
Link, Valentin; Strunz, Walter T.
2017-11-01
We present a stochastic projection formalism for the description of quantum dynamics in bosonic or spin environments. The Schrödinger equation in the coherent state representation with respect to the environmental degrees of freedom can be reformulated by employing the Feshbach partitioning technique for open quantum systems based on the introduction of suitable non-Hermitian projection operators. In this picture the reduced state of the system can be obtained as a stochastic average over pure state trajectories, for any temperature of the bath. The corresponding non-Markovian stochastic Schrödinger equations include a memory integral over the past states. In the case of harmonic environments and linear coupling the approach gives a new form of the established non-Markovian quantum state diffusion stochastic Schrödinger equation without functional derivatives. Utilizing spin coherent states, the evolution equation for spin environments resembles the bosonic case with, however, a non-Gaussian average for the reduced density operator.
Mean, covariance, and effective dimension of stochastic distributed delay dynamics
René, Alexandre; Longtin, André
2017-11-01
Dynamical models are often required to incorporate both delays and noise. However, the inherently infinite-dimensional nature of delay equations makes formal solutions to stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) challenging. Here, we present an approach, similar in spirit to the analysis of functional differential equations, but based on finite-dimensional matrix operators. This results in a method for obtaining both transient and stationary solutions that is directly amenable to computation, and applicable to first order differential systems with either discrete or distributed delays. With fewer assumptions on the system's parameters than other current solution methods and no need to be near a bifurcation, we decompose the solution to a linear SDDE with arbitrary distributed delays into natural modes, in effect the eigenfunctions of the differential operator, and show that relatively few modes can suffice to approximate the probability density of solutions. Thus, we are led to conclude that noise makes these SDDEs effectively low dimensional, which opens the possibility of practical definitions of probability densities over their solution space.
Motion in a stochastic layer described by symbolic dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Misguich, J.H.; Reuss, J.D. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d`Etudes Nucleaires de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee; Elskens, Y. [Universite de Provence, 13 - Marseille (France); Balescu, R. [Association Euratom, Brussels (Belgium)
1997-07-01
The motion in the stochastic layer surrounding an island can be studied by using the standard map: this problem is of direct relevance to the diffusion of magnetic field lines in a tokamak. In a previous work it was shown that this process can be adequately modelled by a continuous time random walk (CTRW) describing transitions of the running point between three basins representing, respectively, trapped motion around the island, and passing motion above or below the island. The sticking property of the island deeply modifies the nature of the transport process, leading to sub-diffusive behavior. In the present work it is shown that the motion can be analyzed in terms of a symbolic dynamics which leads to the possibility of an automatic measurement of the data necessary for the construction of the CTRW. The logical features of the procedure are described, and the method is applied to an analysis of long time series, thus completing the results of the previous work. (author) 10 refs.
Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivan S. Milojević
2012-01-01
Full Text Available If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information, then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicted due to a number of factors influencing the process and causing random demand changes. In this case, a supply system must function according to the complete information and with a certain degree of uncertainty. In cases when demand may be defined by some of the laws of the probability theory, we are talking about stochastic demand and a stochastic supply system. Demand can be described by mathematical expectation, mathematical expectation and standard deviation, probability distribution or as a random process. However, there is usually a need for the most complex description, i.e. the complex random process because both intensity of demand and the probability distribution change during the observed intervals. The level of temporal (dynamic series is traditionally considered as a complex phenomenon consisting of four components: - basic tendency of phenomenon development - cyclical impact (long-term, 'ancient' - seasonal effects - random fluctuations. The basic tendency of phenomenon development means a long-term evolution of phenomena. A function that expresses the trajectory of changes of the basic tendency of a phenomenon development in the form of the equation is called a trend. Often, the trend involves time regression; i.e. the coefficients of the proposed functions are often determined by the least squares method. To roughly determine the coefficients of the proposed function, the sum of three and three-point methods are also used. After checking the
Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael
2017-06-01
We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.
Modelling the stochastic behaviour of primary nucleation.
Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco
2015-01-01
We study the stochastic nature of primary nucleation and how it manifests itself in a crystallisation process at different scales and under different operating conditions. Such characteristics of nucleation are evident in many experiments where detection times of crystals are not identical, despite identical experimental conditions, but instead are distributed around an average value. While abundant experimental evidence has been reported in the literature, a clear theoretical understanding and an appropriate modelling of this feature is still missing. In this contribution, we present two models describing a batch cooling crystallisation, where the interplay between stochastic nucleation and deterministic crystal growth is described differently in each. The nucleation and growth rates of the two models are estimated by a comprehensive set of measurements of paracetamol crystallisation from aqueous solution in a 1 mL vessel [Kadam et al., Chemical Engineering Science, 2012, 72, 10-19]. Both models are applied to the cooling crystallisation process above under different operating conditions, i.e. different volumes, initial concentrations, cooling rates. The advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches are illustrated and discussed, with particular reference to their use across scales of nucleation rate measured in very small crystallisers.
Nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of coherent structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Kim
1997-01-01
considered in the discrete model. Finally, nonlinear Schrödinger continuum and discrete models with nonlocal d ispersion are investigated. In the introductory chapter the physical situation of energy transport on molecular aggregates in which the results applies is discussed in detail. This chapter also...... introduces the nonlinear Schrödinger model in one and two dimensions, discussing the soliton solutions in one dimension and the collapse phenomenon in two dimensions. Also various analytical methods are described. Then a derivation of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation is given, based on a Davydov like...... phenomenon. We find numerically and analytically that the collapse can be delayed and ultimatively arrested by the fluctuations. Allowing the system to reach thermal equilibrium we further augment the model by a nonlineardamping term and find that this prohibits collapse in the strict mathematical se nse...
Sensitivity Study of Stochastic Walking Load Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian
2010-01-01
is to employ a stochastic load model accounting for mean values and standard deviations for the walking load parameters, and to use this as a basis for estimation of structural response. This, however, requires decisions to be made in terms of statistical istributions and their parameters, and the paper...... investigates whether statistical distributions of bridge response are sensitive to some of the decisions made by the engineer doing the analyses. For the paper a selected part of potential influences are examined and footbridge responses are extracted using Monte-Carlo simulations and focus is on estimating...
Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles: the role of stochasticity
Rozhnova, Ganna; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Grenfell, Bryan T.
2013-01-01
Rubella is a completely immunizing and mild infection in children. Understanding its behaviour is of considerable public health importance because of congenital rubella syndrome, which results from infection with rubella during early pregnancy and may entail a variety of birth defects. The recurrent dynamics of rubella are relatively poorly resolved, and appear to show considerable diversity globally. Here, we investigate the behaviour of a stochastic seasonally forced susceptible–infected–recovered model to characterize the determinants of these dynamics and illustrate patterns by comparison with measles. We perform a systematic analysis of spectra of stochastic fluctuations around stable attractors of the corresponding deterministic model and compare them with spectra from full stochastic simulations in large populations. This approach allows us to quantify the effects of demographic stochasticity and to give a coherent picture of measles and rubella dynamics, explaining essential differences in the recurrent patterns exhibited by these diseases. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of vaccination and changing birth rates as well as the persistence of these two childhood infections. PMID:24026472
Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dobay, M. P. D., E-mail: maria.pamela.david@physik.uni-muenchen.de; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Raedler, J. O., E-mail: joachim.raedler@physik.uni-muenchen.de [Ludwig-Maximilians University, Faculty of Physics, Center for NanoScience (Germany)
2012-03-15
Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.
Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.
2012-01-01
Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.
Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras
Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.
2012-03-01
Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.
Scalable inference for stochastic block models
Peng, Chengbin
2017-12-08
Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference algorithms for such a model are increasingly limited due to their high time complexity and poor scalability. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage maximum likelihood approach to recover the latent parameters of the stochastic block model, in time linear with respect to the number of edges. We also propose a parallel algorithm based on message passing. Our algorithm can overlap communication and computation, providing speedup without compromising accuracy as the number of processors grows. For example, to process a real-world graph with about 1.3 million nodes and 10 million edges, our algorithm requires about 6 seconds on 64 cores of a contemporary commodity Linux cluster. Experiments demonstrate that the algorithm can produce high quality results on both benchmark and real-world graphs. An example of finding more meaningful communities is illustrated consequently in comparison with a popular modularity maximization algorithm.
Stochastic Model of TCP SYN Attacks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simona Ramanauskaitė
2011-08-01
Full Text Available A great proportion of essential services are moving into internet space making the threat of DoS attacks even more actual. To estimate the real risk of some kind of denial of service (DoS attack in real world is difficult, but mathematical and software models make this task easier. In this paper we overview the ways of implementing DoS attack models and offer a stochastic model of SYN flooding attack. It allows evaluating the potential threat of SYN flooding attacks, taking into account both the legitimate system flow as well as the possible attack power. At the same time we can assess the effect of such parameters as buffer capacity, open connection storage in the buffer or filtering efficiency on the success of different SYN flooding attacks. This model can be used for other type of memory depletion denial of service attacks.Article in Lithuanian
Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso
on whether their parameters are fixed or evolutive. Stochastic model specification is carried out to discriminate two alternative hypotheses concerning the generation of trends: the trend-stationary hypothesis, on the one hand, for which the trend is a deterministic function of time and the short run...... dynamics are represented by a stationary autoregressive process; the difference-stationary hypothesis, on the other, according to which the trend results from the cumulation of the effects of random disturbances. We illustrate the methodology for a set of U.S. macroeconomic time series, which includes...
The Stochastic stability of a Logistic model with Poisson white noise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duan Dong-Hai; Xu Wei; Zhou Bing-Chang; Su Jun
2011-01-01
The stochastic stability of a logistic model subjected to the effect of a random natural environment, modeled as Poisson white noise process, is investigated. The properties of the stochastic response are discussed for calculating the Lyapunov exponent, which had proven to be the most useful diagnostic tool for the stability of dynamical systems. The generalised Itô differentiation formula is used to analyse the stochastic stability of the response. The results indicate that the stability of the response is related to the intensity and amplitude distribution of the environment noise and the growth rate of the species. (general)
The Stochastic stability of a Logistic model with Poisson white noise
Duan, Dong-Hai; Xu, Wei; Su, Jun; Zhou, Bing-Chang
2011-03-01
The stochastic stability of a logistic model subjected to the effect of a random natural environment, modeled as Poisson white noise process, is investigated. The properties of the stochastic response are discussed for calculating the Lyapunov exponent, which had proven to be the most useful diagnostic tool for the stability of dynamical systems. The generalised Itô differentiation formula is used to analyse the stochastic stability of the response. The results indicate that the stability of the response is related to the intensity and amplitude distribution of the environment noise and the growth rate of the species. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10872165 and 10932009).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sutrisno; Widowati; Solikhin
2016-01-01
In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in stochastic dynamic optimization form to determine the optimal strategy for an integrated single product inventory control problem and supplier selection problem where the demand and purchasing cost parameters are random. For each time period, by using the proposed model, we decide the optimal supplier and calculate the optimal product volume purchased from the optimal supplier so that the inventory level will be located at some point as close as possible to the reference point with minimal cost. We use stochastic dynamic programming to solve this problem and give several numerical experiments to evaluate the model. From the results, for each time period, the proposed model was generated the optimal supplier and the inventory level was tracked the reference point well. (paper)
Optimal Stochastic Control Problem for General Linear Dynamical Systems in Neuroscience
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yan Chen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper considers a d-dimensional stochastic optimization problem in neuroscience. Suppose the arm’s movement trajectory is modeled by high-order linear stochastic differential dynamic system in d-dimensional space, the optimal trajectory, velocity, and variance are explicitly obtained by using stochastic control method, which allows us to analytically establish exact relationships between various quantities. Moreover, the optimal trajectory is almost a straight line for a reaching movement; the optimal velocity bell-shaped and the optimal variance are consistent with the experimental Fitts law; that is, the longer the time of a reaching movement, the higher the accuracy of arriving at the target position, and the results can be directly applied to designing a reaching movement performed by a robotic arm in a more general environment.
Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Philipsen, Kirsten Riber
an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non......This thesis applies mathematical modelling and statistical methods to investigate the dynamics and mechanisms of bacterial evolution. More specifically it is concerned with the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacteria populations, which is an increasing problem for the treatment of infections...... in humans and animals. To prevent the evolution and spread of resistance, there is a need for further understanding of its dynamics. A grey-box modelling approach based on stochastic differential equations is the main and innovative method applied to study bacterial systems in this thesis. Through...
Excitability in a stochastic differential equation model for calcium puffs.
Rüdiger, S
2014-06-01
Calcium dynamics are essential to a multitude of cellular processes. For many cell types, localized discharges of calcium through small clusters of intracellular channels are building blocks for all spatially extended calcium signals. Because of the large noise amplitude, the validity of noise-approximating model equations for this system has been questioned. Here we revisit the master equations for local calcium release, examine the multiple scales of calcium concentrations in the cluster domain, and derive adapted stochastic differential equations. We show by comparison of discrete and continuous trajectories that the Langevin equations can be made consistent with the master equations even for very small channel numbers. In its deterministic limit, the model reveals that excitability, a dynamical phenomenon observed in many natural systems, is at the core of calcium puffs. The model also predicts a bifurcation from transient to sustained release which may link local and global calcium signals in cells.
Stochastic modeling of thermal fatigue crack growth
Radu, Vasile
2015-01-01
The book describes a systematic stochastic modeling approach for assessing thermal-fatigue crack-growth in mixing tees, based on the power spectral density of temperature fluctuation at the inner pipe surface. It shows the development of a frequency-temperature response function in the framework of single-input, single-output (SISO) methodology from random noise/signal theory under sinusoidal input. The frequency response of stress intensity factor (SIF) is obtained by a polynomial fitting procedure of thermal stress profiles at various instants of time. The method, which takes into account the variability of material properties, and has been implemented in a real-world application, estimates the probabilities of failure by considering a limit state function and Monte Carlo analysis, which are based on the proposed stochastic model. Written in a comprehensive and accessible style, this book presents a new and effective method for assessing thermal fatigue crack, and it is intended as a concise and practice-or...
Metaheuristics for the dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports.
Schilde, M; Doerner, K F; Hartl, R F
2011-12-01
The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15%. Moreover, improvements of up to 41% can be achieved for some test instances.
Maximum caliber inference and the stochastic Ising model
Cafaro, Carlo; Ali, Sean Alan
2016-11-01
We investigate the maximum caliber variational principle as an inference algorithm used to predict dynamical properties of complex nonequilibrium, stationary, statistical systems in the presence of incomplete information. Specifically, we maximize the path entropy over discrete time step trajectories subject to normalization, stationarity, and detailed balance constraints together with a path-dependent dynamical information constraint reflecting a given average global behavior of the complex system. A general expression for the transition probability values associated with the stationary random Markov processes describing the nonequilibrium stationary system is computed. By virtue of our analysis, we uncover that a convenient choice of the dynamical information constraint together with a perturbative asymptotic expansion with respect to its corresponding Lagrange multiplier of the general expression for the transition probability leads to a formal overlap with the well-known Glauber hyperbolic tangent rule for the transition probability for the stochastic Ising model in the limit of very high temperatures of the heat reservoir.
Hopf bifurcation of the stochastic model on business cycle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu, J; Wang, H; Ge, G
2008-01-01
A stochastic model on business cycle was presented in thas paper. Simplifying the model through the quasi Hamiltonian theory, the Ito diffusion process was obtained. According to Oseledec multiplicative ergodic theory and singular boundary theory, the conditions of local and global stability were acquired. Solving the stationary FPK equation and analyzing the stationary probability density, the stochastic Hopf bifurcation was explained. The result indicated that the change of parameter awas the key factor to the appearance of the stochastic Hopf bifurcation
Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Spill, Fabian, E-mail: fspill@bu.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston University, 44 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guerrero, Pilar [Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Alarcon, Tomas [Centre de Recerca Matematica, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Atonòma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Maini, Philip K. [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Byrne, Helen [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Computational Biology Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QD (United Kingdom)
2015-10-15
Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries.
Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Wei; Xu Wei; Zhao Junfeng; Jin Yanfei
2007-01-01
On the basis of the work of Goodwin and Puu, a new business cycle model subject to a stochastically parametric excitation is derived in this paper. At first, we reduce the model to a one-dimensional diffusion process by applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi-nonintegrable Hamiltonian system. Secondly, we utilize the methods of Lyapunov exponent and boundary classification associated with diffusion process respectively to analyze the stochastic stability of the trivial solution of system. The numerical results obtained illustrate that the trivial solution of system must be globally stable if it is locally stable in the state space. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic Hopf bifurcation of the business cycle model according to the qualitative changes in stationary probability density of system response. It is concluded that the stochastic Hopf bifurcation occurs at two critical parametric values. Finally, some explanations are given in a simply way on the potential applications of stochastic stability and bifurcation analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jha Sumit
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE are often used to model the stochastic dynamics of biological systems. Unfortunately, rare but biologically interesting behaviors (e.g., oncogenesis can be difficult to observe in stochastic models. Consequently, the analysis of behaviors of SDE models using numerical simulations can be challenging. We introduce a method for solving the following problem: given a SDE model and a high-level behavioral specification about the dynamics of the model, algorithmically decide whether the model satisfies the specification. While there are a number of techniques for addressing this problem for discrete-state stochastic models, the analysis of SDE and other continuous-state models has received less attention. Our proposed solution uses a combination of Bayesian sequential hypothesis testing, non-identically distributed samples, and Girsanov's theorem for change of measures to examine rare behaviors. We use our algorithm to analyze two SDE models of tumor dynamics. Our use of non-identically distributed samples sampling contributes to the state of the art in statistical verification and model checking of stochastic models by providing an effective means for exposing rare events in SDEs, while retaining the ability to compute bounds on the probability that those events occur.
Jha, Sumit Kumar; Langmead, Christopher James
2012-04-12
Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) are often used to model the stochastic dynamics of biological systems. Unfortunately, rare but biologically interesting behaviors (e.g., oncogenesis) can be difficult to observe in stochastic models. Consequently, the analysis of behaviors of SDE models using numerical simulations can be challenging. We introduce a method for solving the following problem: given a SDE model and a high-level behavioral specification about the dynamics of the model, algorithmically decide whether the model satisfies the specification. While there are a number of techniques for addressing this problem for discrete-state stochastic models, the analysis of SDE and other continuous-state models has received less attention. Our proposed solution uses a combination of Bayesian sequential hypothesis testing, non-identically distributed samples, and Girsanov's theorem for change of measures to examine rare behaviors. We use our algorithm to analyze two SDE models of tumor dynamics. Our use of non-identically distributed samples sampling contributes to the state of the art in statistical verification and model checking of stochastic models by providing an effective means for exposing rare events in SDEs, while retaining the ability to compute bounds on the probability that those events occur.
Stochastic inverse problems: Models and metrics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabbagh, Elias H.; Sabbagh, Harold A.; Murphy, R. Kim; Aldrin, John C.; Annis, Charles; Knopp, Jeremy S.
2015-01-01
In past work, we introduced model-based inverse methods, and applied them to problems in which the anomaly could be reasonably modeled by simple canonical shapes, such as rectangular solids. In these cases the parameters to be inverted would be length, width and height, as well as the occasional probe lift-off or rotation. We are now developing a formulation that allows more flexibility in modeling complex flaws. The idea consists of expanding the flaw in a sequence of basis functions, and then solving for the expansion coefficients of this sequence, which are modeled as independent random variables, uniformly distributed over their range of values. There are a number of applications of such modeling: 1. Connected cracks and multiple half-moons, which we have noted in a POD set. Ideally we would like to distinguish connected cracks from one long shallow crack. 2. Cracks of irregular profile and shape which have appeared in cold work holes during bolt-hole eddy-current inspection. One side of such cracks is much deeper than other. 3. L or C shaped crack profiles at the surface, examples of which have been seen in bolt-hole cracks. By formulating problems in a stochastic sense, we are able to leverage the stochastic global optimization algorithms in NLSE, which is resident in VIC-3D®, to answer questions of global minimization and to compute confidence bounds using the sensitivity coefficient that we get from NLSE. We will also address the issue of surrogate functions which are used during the inversion process, and how they contribute to the quality of the estimation of the bounds
Stochastic inverse problems: Models and metrics
Sabbagh, Elias H.; Sabbagh, Harold A.; Murphy, R. Kim; Aldrin, John C.; Annis, Charles; Knopp, Jeremy S.
2015-03-01
In past work, we introduced model-based inverse methods, and applied them to problems in which the anomaly could be reasonably modeled by simple canonical shapes, such as rectangular solids. In these cases the parameters to be inverted would be length, width and height, as well as the occasional probe lift-off or rotation. We are now developing a formulation that allows more flexibility in modeling complex flaws. The idea consists of expanding the flaw in a sequence of basis functions, and then solving for the expansion coefficients of this sequence, which are modeled as independent random variables, uniformly distributed over their range of values. There are a number of applications of such modeling: 1. Connected cracks and multiple half-moons, which we have noted in a POD set. Ideally we would like to distinguish connected cracks from one long shallow crack. 2. Cracks of irregular profile and shape which have appeared in cold work holes during bolt-hole eddy-current inspection. One side of such cracks is much deeper than other. 3. L or C shaped crack profiles at the surface, examples of which have been seen in bolt-hole cracks. By formulating problems in a stochastic sense, we are able to leverage the stochastic global optimization algorithms in NLSE, which is resident in VIC-3D®, to answer questions of global minimization and to compute confidence bounds using the sensitivity coefficient that we get from NLSE. We will also address the issue of surrogate functions which are used during the inversion process, and how they contribute to the quality of the estimation of the bounds.
Stochastic inverse problems: Models and metrics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sabbagh, Elias H.; Sabbagh, Harold A.; Murphy, R. Kim [Victor Technologies, LLC, Bloomington, IN 47407-7706 (United States); Aldrin, John C. [Computational Tools, Gurnee, IL 60031 (United States); Annis, Charles [Statistical Engineering, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418 (United States); Knopp, Jeremy S. [Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL/RXCA), Wright Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7817 (United States)
2015-03-31
In past work, we introduced model-based inverse methods, and applied them to problems in which the anomaly could be reasonably modeled by simple canonical shapes, such as rectangular solids. In these cases the parameters to be inverted would be length, width and height, as well as the occasional probe lift-off or rotation. We are now developing a formulation that allows more flexibility in modeling complex flaws. The idea consists of expanding the flaw in a sequence of basis functions, and then solving for the expansion coefficients of this sequence, which are modeled as independent random variables, uniformly distributed over their range of values. There are a number of applications of such modeling: 1. Connected cracks and multiple half-moons, which we have noted in a POD set. Ideally we would like to distinguish connected cracks from one long shallow crack. 2. Cracks of irregular profile and shape which have appeared in cold work holes during bolt-hole eddy-current inspection. One side of such cracks is much deeper than other. 3. L or C shaped crack profiles at the surface, examples of which have been seen in bolt-hole cracks. By formulating problems in a stochastic sense, we are able to leverage the stochastic global optimization algorithms in NLSE, which is resident in VIC-3D®, to answer questions of global minimization and to compute confidence bounds using the sensitivity coefficient that we get from NLSE. We will also address the issue of surrogate functions which are used during the inversion process, and how they contribute to the quality of the estimation of the bounds.
Stochastic simplified modelling of abrasive waterjet footprints
Torrubia, P. Lozano; Axinte, D. A.
2016-01-01
Abrasive micro-waterjet processing is a non-conventional machining method that can be used to manufacture complex shapes in difficult-to-cut materials. Predicting the effect of the jet on the surface for a given set of machine parameters is a key element of controlling the process. However, the noise of the process is significant, making it difficult to design reliable jet-path strategies that produce good quality parts via controlled-depth milling. The process is highly unstable and has a strong random component that can affect the quality of the workpiece, especially in the case of controlled-depth milling. This study describes a method to predict the variability of the jet footprint for different jet feed speeds. A stochastic partial differential equation is used to describe the etched surface as the jet is moved over it, assuming that the erosion process can be divided into two main components: a deterministic part that corresponds to the average erosion of the jet and a stochastic part that accounts for the noise generated at different stages of the process. The model predicts the variability of the trench profiles to within less than 8%. These advances could enable abrasive micro-waterjet technology to be a suitable technology for controlled-depth milling. PMID:27118905
Deterministic and stochastic trends in the Lee-Carter mortality model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Callot, Laurent; Haldrup, Niels; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene
2015-01-01
The Lee and Carter (1992) model assumes that the deterministic and stochastic time series dynamics load with identical weights when describing the development of age-specific mortality rates. Effectively this means that the main characteristics of the model simplify to a random walk model with age...... mortality data. We find empirical evidence that this feature of the Lee–Carter model overly restricts the system dynamics and we suggest to separate the deterministic and stochastic time series components at the benefit of improved fit and forecasting performance. In fact, we find that the classical Lee...
Deterministic and stochastic trends in the Lee-Carter mortality model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Callot, Laurent; Haldrup, Niels; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene
The Lee and Carter (1992) model assumes that the deterministic and stochastic time series dynamics loads with identical weights when describing the development of age specific mortality rates. Effectively this means that the main characteristics of the model simplifies to a random walk model...... that characterizes mortality data. We find empirical evidence that this feature of the Lee-Carter model overly restricts the system dynamics and we suggest to separate the deterministic and stochastic time series components at the benefit of improved fit and forecasting performance. In fact, we find...
Capasso, Vincenzo
2015-01-01
This textbook, now in its third edition, offers a rigorous and self-contained introduction to the theory of continuous-time stochastic processes, stochastic integrals, and stochastic differential equations. Expertly balancing theory and applications, the work features concrete examples of modeling real-world problems from biology, medicine, industrial applications, finance, and insurance using stochastic methods. No previous knowledge of stochastic processes is required. Key topics include: * Markov processes * Stochastic differential equations * Arbitrage-free markets and financial derivatives * Insurance risk * Population dynamics, and epidemics * Agent-based models New to the Third Edition: * Infinitely divisible distributions * Random measures * Levy processes * Fractional Brownian motion * Ergodic theory * Karhunen-Loeve expansion * Additional applications * Additional exercises * Smoluchowski approximation of Langevin systems An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes, Third Editio...
Optimal information diffusion in stochastic block models.
Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio
2016-09-01
We use the linear threshold model to study the diffusion of information on a network generated by the stochastic block model. We focus our analysis on a two-community structure where the initial set of informed nodes lies only in one of the two communities and we look for optimal network structures, i.e., those maximizing the asymptotic extent of the diffusion. We find that, constraining the mean degree and the fraction of initially informed nodes, the optimal structure can be assortative (modular), core-periphery, or even disassortative. We then look for minimal cost structures, i.e., those for which a minimal fraction of initially informed nodes is needed to trigger a global cascade. We find that the optimal networks are assortative but with a structure very close to a core-periphery graph, i.e., a very dense community linked to a much more sparsely connected periphery.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. W. Zhu
2014-03-01
Full Text Available The non-linear dynamic characteristics and optimal control of a giant magnetostrictive film (GMF subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation were studied. Non-linear differential items were introduced to interpret the hysteretic phenomena of the GMF, and the non-linear dynamic model of the GMF subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation was developed. The stochastic stability was analysed, and the probability density function was obtained. The condition of stochastic Hopf bifurcation and noise-induced chaotic response were determined, and the fractal boundary of the system's safe basin was provided. The reliability function was solved from the backward Kolmogorov equation, and an optimal control strategy was proposed in the stochastic dynamic programming method. Numerical simulation shows that the system stability varies with the parameters, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation and chaos appear in the process; the area of the safe basin decreases when the noise intensifies, and the boundary of the safe basin becomes fractal; the system reliability improved through stochastic optimal control. Finally, the theoretical and numerical results were proved by experiments. The results are helpful in the engineering applications of GMF.
Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Power System with Renewable Generation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Peiyuan
. With the increasing number of wind turbines (WTs) connected to distribution systems, network operators are concerned about how such a stochastic generation affects power losses of the network. Furthermore, the operators need to estimate how much and when the stochastic generation can reduce the loading of substation...... be achieved through a probabilistic analysis that takes into account the stochastic behavior of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand. Such a probabilistic analysis may help network operators to cut down the cost associated with system planning. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to develop...... stochastic models of renewable generation and load demand for the optimal operation and planning of modern distribution systems through a probabilistic approach. On the basis of statistical data, stochastic models of WPG, load and combined heat and power (CHP) generation are developed. The stochastic wind...
A validation study of a stochastic model of human interaction
Burchfield, Mitchel Talmadge
The purpose of this dissertation is to validate a stochastic model of human interactions which is part of a developmentalism paradigm. Incorporating elements of ancient and contemporary philosophy and science, developmentalism defines human development as a progression of increasing competence and utilizes compatible theories of developmental psychology, cognitive psychology, educational psychology, social psychology, curriculum development, neurology, psychophysics, and physics. To validate a stochastic model of human interactions, the study addressed four research questions: (a) Does attitude vary over time? (b) What are the distributional assumptions underlying attitudes? (c) Does the stochastic model, {-}N{intlimitssbsp{-infty}{infty}}varphi(chi,tau)\\ Psi(tau)dtau, have utility for the study of attitudinal distributions and dynamics? (d) Are the Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac, and Bose-Einstein theories applicable to human groups? Approximately 25,000 attitude observations were made using the Semantic Differential Scale. Positions of individuals varied over time and the logistic model predicted observed distributions with correlations between 0.98 and 1.0, with estimated standard errors significantly less than the magnitudes of the parameters. The results bring into question the applicability of Fisherian research designs (Fisher, 1922, 1928, 1938) for behavioral research based on the apparent failure of two fundamental assumptions-the noninteractive nature of the objects being studied and normal distribution of attributes. The findings indicate that individual belief structures are representable in terms of a psychological space which has the same or similar properties as physical space. The psychological space not only has dimension, but individuals interact by force equations similar to those described in theoretical physics models. Nonlinear regression techniques were used to estimate Fermi-Dirac parameters from the data. The model explained a high degree
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ertaş, Mehmet; Keskin, Mustafa; Deviren, Bayram
2012-01-01
Using an effective field theory with correlations, we study a kinetic spin-5/2 Blume–Capel model with bilinear exchange interaction and single-ion crystal field on a square lattice. The effective-field dynamic equation is derived by employing the Glauber transition rates. First, the phases in the kinetic system are obtained by solving this dynamic equation. Then, the thermal behavior of the dynamic magnetization, the hysteresis loop area and correlation are investigated in order to characterize the nature of the dynamic transitions and to obtain dynamic phase transition temperatures. Finally, we present the phase diagrams in two planes, namely (T/zJ, h 0 /zJ) and (T/zJ, D/zJ), where T absolute temperature, h 0 , the amplitude of the oscillating field, D, crystal field interaction or single-ion anisotropy constant and z denotes the nearest-neighbor sites of the central site. The phase diagrams exhibit four fundamental phases and ten mixed phases which are composed of binary, ternary and tetrad combination of fundamental phases, depending on the crystal field interaction parameter. Moreover, the phase diagrams contain a dynamic tricritical point (T), a double critical end point (B), a multicritical point (A) and zero-temperature critical point (Z). - Highlights: ► The effective-field theory is used to study the kinetic spin-5/2 Ising Blume–Capel model. ► Time variations of average order parameter have been studied to find phases in the system. ► The dynamic magnetization, hysteresis loop area and correlation have been calculated. ► The dynamic phase boundaries of the system depend on D/zJ. ► The dynamic phase diagrams are presented in the (T/zJ, h 0 /zJ) and (D/zJ, T/zJ) planes.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ertas, Mehmet [Department of Physics, Erciyes University, 38039 Kayseri (Turkey); Keskin, Mustafa, E-mail: keskin@erciyes.edu.tr [Department of Physics, Erciyes University, 38039 Kayseri (Turkey); Deviren, Bayram [Department of Physics, Nevsehir University, 50300 Nevsehir (Turkey)
2012-04-15
Using an effective field theory with correlations, we study a kinetic spin-5/2 Blume-Capel model with bilinear exchange interaction and single-ion crystal field on a square lattice. The effective-field dynamic equation is derived by employing the Glauber transition rates. First, the phases in the kinetic system are obtained by solving this dynamic equation. Then, the thermal behavior of the dynamic magnetization, the hysteresis loop area and correlation are investigated in order to characterize the nature of the dynamic transitions and to obtain dynamic phase transition temperatures. Finally, we present the phase diagrams in two planes, namely (T/zJ, h{sub 0}/zJ) and (T/zJ, D/zJ), where T absolute temperature, h{sub 0}, the amplitude of the oscillating field, D, crystal field interaction or single-ion anisotropy constant and z denotes the nearest-neighbor sites of the central site. The phase diagrams exhibit four fundamental phases and ten mixed phases which are composed of binary, ternary and tetrad combination of fundamental phases, depending on the crystal field interaction parameter. Moreover, the phase diagrams contain a dynamic tricritical point (T), a double critical end point (B), a multicritical point (A) and zero-temperature critical point (Z). - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The effective-field theory is used to study the kinetic spin-5/2 Ising Blume-Capel model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Time variations of average order parameter have been studied to find phases in the system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The dynamic magnetization, hysteresis loop area and correlation have been calculated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The dynamic phase boundaries of the system depend on D/zJ. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The dynamic phase diagrams are presented in the (T/zJ, h{sub 0}/zJ) and (D/zJ, T/zJ) planes.
Dynamic Asset Allocation with Stochastic Income and Interest Rates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Munk, Claus; Sørensen, Carsten
2010-01-01
We solve for optimal portfolios when interest rates and labor income are stochastic with the expected income growth being affine in the short-term interest rate in order to encompass business cycle variations in wages. Our calibration based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data supports...... this relation with substantial variation across individuals in the slope of this affine function. The slope is crucial for the valuation and riskiness of human capital and for the optimal stock/bond/cash allocation both in an unconstrained complete market and in an incomplete market with liquidity and short...
Noise-sustained fluctuations in stochastic dynamics with a delay.
D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca
2012-04-01
Delayed responses to external drivers are ubiquitous in environmental, social, and biological processes. Delays may induce oscillations, Hopf bifurcations, and instabilities in deterministic systems even in the absence of nonlinearities. Despite recent advances in the study of delayed stochastic differential equations, the interaction of random drivers with delays remains poorly understood. In particular, it is unclear whether noise-induced behaviors may emerge from these interactions. Here we show that noise may enhance and sustain transient periodic oscillations inherent to deterministic delayed systems. We investigate the conditions conducive to the emergence and disappearance of these dynamics in a linear system in the presence of both additive and multiplicative noise.
Automated planning through abstractions in dynamic and stochastic environments
Martínez Muñoz, Moisés
2016-01-01
Mención Internacional en el título de doctor Generating sequences of actions - plans - for an automatic system, like a robot, using Automated Planning is particularly diflicult in stochastic and/or dynamic environments. These plans are composed of actions whose execution, in certain scenarios, might fail, which in tum prevents the execution of the rest of the actions in the plan. Also, in some environments, plans must he generated fast, hoth at the start of the execution and after every ex...
Asymptotic behavior of a stochastic delayed HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence
Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmad, Bashir
2017-11-01
In this paper, a stochastic delayed HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence is proposed and investigated. First of all, we prove that there is a unique global positive solution as desired in any population dynamics. Then by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions, we show that if the basic reproduction number R0 ≤ 1, then the solution of the stochastic system oscillates around the infection-free equilibrium E0, while if R0 > 1, then the solution of the stochastic system fluctuates around the infective equilibrium E∗. Sufficient conditions of these results are established. Finally, we give some examples and a series of numerical simulations to illustrate the analytical results.
Review of "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bullinger Eric
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson introduces the peculiarities of stochastic modelling in biology. This book is particularly suited to as a textbook or for self-study, and for readers with a theoretical background.
Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models by Nonparametric Filtering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kanaya, Shin; Kristensen, Dennis
2016-01-01
/estimated volatility process replacing the latent process. Our estimation strategy is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric stochastic volatility models, and can handle both jumps and market microstructure noise. The resulting estimators of the stochastic volatility model will carry additional biases...
Approximate models for broken clouds in stochastic radiative transfer theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doicu, Adrian; Efremenko, Dmitry S.; Loyola, Diego; Trautmann, Thomas
2014-01-01
This paper presents approximate models in stochastic radiative transfer theory. The independent column approximation and its modified version with a solar source computed in a full three-dimensional atmosphere are formulated in a stochastic framework and for arbitrary cloud statistics. The nth-order stochastic models describing the independent column approximations are equivalent to the nth-order stochastic models for the original radiance fields in which the gradient vectors are neglected. Fast approximate models are further derived on the basis of zeroth-order stochastic models and the independent column approximation. The so-called “internal mixing” models assume a combination of the optical properties of the cloud and the clear sky, while the “external mixing” models assume a combination of the radiances corresponding to completely overcast and clear skies. A consistent treatment of internal and external mixing models is provided, and a new parameterization of the closure coefficient in the effective thickness approximation is given. An efficient computation of the closure coefficient for internal mixing models, using a previously derived vector stochastic model as a reference, is also presented. Equipped with appropriate look-up tables for the closure coefficient, these models can easily be integrated into operational trace gas retrieval systems that exploit absorption features in the near-IR solar spectrum. - Highlights: • Independent column approximation in a stochastic setting. • Fast internal and external mixing models for total and diffuse radiances. • Efficient optimization of internal mixing models to match reference models
Aggregation patterns from nonlocal interactions: Discrete stochastic and continuum modeling
Hackett-Jones, Emily J.
2012-04-17
Conservation equations governed by a nonlocal interaction potential generate aggregates from an initial uniform distribution of particles. We address the evolution and formation of these aggregating steady states when the interaction potential has both attractive and repulsive singularities. Currently, no existence theory for such potentials is available. We develop and compare two complementary solution methods, a continuous pseudoinverse method and a discrete stochastic lattice approach, and formally show a connection between the two. Interesting aggregation patterns involving multiple peaks for a simple doubly singular attractive-repulsive potential are determined. For a swarming Morse potential, characteristic slow-fast dynamics in the scaled inverse energy is observed in the evolution to steady state in both the continuous and discrete approaches. The discrete approach is found to be remarkably robust to modifications in movement rules, related to the potential function. The comparable evolution dynamics and steady states of the discrete model with the continuum model suggest that the discrete stochastic approach is a promising way of probing aggregation patterns arising from two- and three-dimensional nonlocal interaction conservation equations. © 2012 American Physical Society.
Deterministic modelling and stochastic simulation of biochemical pathways using MATLAB.
Ullah, M; Schmidt, H; Cho, K H; Wolkenhauer, O
2006-03-01
The analysis of complex biochemical networks is conducted in two popular conceptual frameworks for modelling. The deterministic approach requires the solution of ordinary differential equations (ODEs, reaction rate equations) with concentrations as continuous state variables. The stochastic approach involves the simulation of differential-difference equations (chemical master equations, CMEs) with probabilities as variables. This is to generate counts of molecules for chemical species as realisations of random variables drawn from the probability distribution described by the CMEs. Although there are numerous tools available, many of them free, the modelling and simulation environment MATLAB is widely used in the physical and engineering sciences. We describe a collection of MATLAB functions to construct and solve ODEs for deterministic simulation and to implement realisations of CMEs for stochastic simulation using advanced MATLAB coding (Release 14). The program was successfully applied to pathway models from the literature for both cases. The results were compared to implementations using alternative tools for dynamic modelling and simulation of biochemical networks. The aim is to provide a concise set of MATLAB functions that encourage the experimentation with systems biology models. All the script files are available from www.sbi.uni-rostock.de/ publications_matlab-paper.html.
Interplanetary Alfvenic fluctuations: A stochastic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnes, A.
1981-01-01
The strong alignment of the average directions of minimum magnetic variance and mean magnetic field in interplanetary Alfvenic fluctuations is inconsistent with the usual wave-propagation models. We investigate the concept of minimum variance for nonplanar Alfvenic fluctuations in which the field direction varies stochastically. It is found that the tendency of the minimum variance and mean field directions to be aligned may be purely a consequence of the randomness of the field direction. In particular, a well-defined direction of minimum variance does not imply that the fluctuations are necessarily planar. The fluctuation power spectrum is a power law for frequencies much higher than the inverse of the correlation time. The probability distribution of directions a randomly fluctuating field of constant magnitude is calculated. A new approach for observational studies of interplanetary fluctuations is suggested
Methods of Stochastic Analysis of Complex Regimes in the 3D Hindmarsh-Rose Neuron Model
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Slepukhina, Evdokia
A problem of the stochastic nonlinear analysis of neuronal activity is studied by the example of the Hindmarsh-Rose (HR) model. For the parametric region of tonic spiking oscillations, it is shown that random noise transforms the spiking dynamic regime into the bursting one. This stochastic phenomenon is specified by qualitative changes in distributions of random trajectories and interspike intervals (ISIs). For a quantitative analysis of the noise-induced bursting, we suggest a constructive semi-analytical approach based on the stochastic sensitivity function (SSF) technique and the method of confidence domains that allows us to describe geometrically a distribution of random states around the deterministic attractors. Using this approach, we develop a new algorithm for estimation of critical values for the noise intensity corresponding to the qualitative changes in stochastic dynamics. We show that the obtained estimations are in good agreement with the numerical results. An interplay between noise-induced bursting and transitions from order to chaos is discussed.
Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syversveen, Anne Randi
1997-12-31
The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.
A stochastic approach to multi-gene expression dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ochiai, T.; Nacher, J.C.; Akutsu, T.
2005-01-01
In the last years, tens of thousands gene expression profiles for cells of several organisms have been monitored. Gene expression is a complex transcriptional process where mRNA molecules are translated into proteins, which control most of the cell functions. In this process, the correlation among genes is crucial to determine the specific functions of genes. Here, we propose a novel multi-dimensional stochastic approach to deal with the gene correlation phenomena. Interestingly, our stochastic framework suggests that the study of the gene correlation requires only one theoretical assumption-Markov property-and the experimental transition probability, which characterizes the gene correlation system. Finally, a gene expression experiment is proposed for future applications of the model
Teodorescu, Razvan
2009-10-01
Systems of oscillators coupled non-linearly (stochastically or not) are ubiquitous in nature and can explain many complex phenomena: coupled Josephson junction arrays, cardiac pacemaker cells, swarms or flocks of insects and birds, etc. They are know to have a non-trivial phase diagram, which includes chaotic, partially synchronized, and fully synchronized phases. A traditional model for this class of problems is the Kuramoto system of oscillators, which has been studied extensively for the last three decades. The model is a canonical example for non-equilibrium, dynamical phase transitions, so little understood in physics. From a stochastic analysis point of view, the transition is described by the large deviations principle, which offers little information on the scaling behavior near the critical point. I will discuss a special case of the model, which allows a rigorous analysis of the critical properties of the model, and reveals a new, anomalous scaling behavior in the vicinity of the critical point.
Stochastic dynamics for two biological species and ecological niches
Ruziska, Flávia M.; Arashiro, Everaldo; Tomé, Tânia
2018-01-01
We consider an ecological system in which two species interact with two niches. To this end we introduce a stochastic model with four states. Our analysis is founded in three approaches: Monte Carlo simulations of the model on a square lattice, mean-field approximation, and birth and death master equation. From this last approach we obtain a description in terms of Langevin equations which show in an explicit way the role of noise in population biology. We focus mainly on the description of time oscillations of the species population and the alternating dominance between them. The model treated here may provide insights on these properties.
Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal
2017-07-01
The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.
Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory.
Constable, George W A; McKane, Alan J
2017-08-01
The relationship between the M-species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M-allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.
Benedetti, Lorenzo; Belia, Evangelina; Cierkens, Katrijn; Flameling, Tony; De Baets, Bernard; Nopens, Ingmar; Weijers, Stefan
2013-01-01
This paper illustrates how a dynamic model can be used to evaluate a plant upgrade on the basis of post-upgrade performance data. The case study is that of the Eindhoven wastewater treatment plant upgrade completed in 2006. As a first step, the design process based on a static model was thoroughly analyzed and the choices regarding variability and uncertainty (i.e. safety factors) were made explicit. This involved the interpretation of the design guidelines and other assumptions made by the engineers. As a second step, a (calibrated) dynamic model of the plant was set up, able to reproduce the anticipated variability (duration and frequency). The third step was to define probability density functions for the parameters assumed to be uncertain, and propagate that uncertainty with the dynamic model by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The last step was the statistical evaluation and interpretation of the simulation results. This work should be regarded as a 'learning exercise' increasing the understanding of how and to what extent variability and uncertainty are currently incorporated in design guidelines used in practice and how model-based post-project appraisals could be performed.
Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md
2014-01-01
In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits
Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah
2015-01-01
In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits
Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)
2014-06-19
In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.
Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor and UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)
2015-02-03
In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.
Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation for tidal models
Altaf, M.U.
2011-05-12
The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed proper orthogonal decompositionbased calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used to estimate large number of parameters.
A stochastic model for early placental development.
Cotter, Simon L
2014-08-01
In the human, placental structure is closely related to placental function and consequent pregnancy outcome. Studies have noted abnormal placental shape in small-for-gestational-age infants which extends to increased lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. The origins and determinants of placental shape are incompletely understood and are difficult to study in vivo. In this paper, we model the early development of the human placenta, based on the hypothesis that this is driven by a chemoattractant effect emanating from proximal spiral arteries in the decidua. We derive and explore a two-dimensional stochastic model, and investigate the effects of loss of spiral arteries in regions near to the cord insertion on the shape of the placenta. This model demonstrates that disruption of spiral arteries can exert profound effects on placental shape, particularly if this is close to the cord insertion. Thus, placental shape reflects the underlying maternal vascular bed. Abnormal placental shape may reflect an abnormal uterine environment, predisposing to pregnancy complications. Through statistical analysis of model placentas, we are able to characterize the probability that a given placenta grew in a disrupted environment, and even able to distinguish between different disruptions.
Stochastic modelling of two-phase flows including phase change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hurisse, O.; Minier, J.P.
2011-01-01
Stochastic modelling has already been developed and applied for single-phase flows and incompressible two-phase flows. In this article, we propose an extension of this modelling approach to two-phase flows including phase change (e.g. for steam-water flows). Two aspects are emphasised: a stochastic model accounting for phase transition and a modelling constraint which arises from volume conservation. To illustrate the whole approach, some remarks are eventually proposed for two-fluid models. (authors)
On the small-time behavior of stochastic logistic models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dung Tien Nguyen
2017-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the small-time behaviors of the solution to a stochastic logistic model. The obtained results allow us to estimate the number of individuals in the population and can be used to study stochastic prey-predator systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Junhai Ma
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Apart from the price fluctuation, the retailers’ service level becomes another key factor that affects the market demand. This paper depicts a modified price and demand game model based on the stochastic demand and the retailer’s service level which influences the market demand decided by customers’ preference, while the market demand is stochastic in this model. We explore how the price adjustment speed affects the stability of the supply chain system with respect to service level and stochastic demand. The dynamic behavior of the system is researched by simulation and the stability domain and the bifurcation phenomenon are shown clearly. The largest Lyapunov exponent and the chaotic attractor are also given to confirm the chaotic characteristic of the system. The simulation results indicate that relatively small price adjustment speed may maintain the system at stable state. With the price adjustment speed gradually increasing, the price system gets unstable and finally becomes chaotic. This chaotic phenomenon will perturb the product market and this phenomenon should be controlled to keep the system stay in the stable region. So the chaos control is done and the chaos can be controlled completely. The conclusion makes significant contribution to the system referring to the price fluctuation based on the service level and stochastic demand.
A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas
2014-01-01
Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media
Simulating transmission and control of Taenia solium infections using a reed-frost stochastic model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kyvsgaard, Niels Chr.; Johansen, Maria Vang; Carabin, Hélène
2007-01-01
The transmission dynamics of the human-pig zoonotic cestode Taenia solium are explored with both deterministic and stochastic versions of a modified Reed-Frost model. This model, originally developed for microparasitic infections (i.e. bacteria, viruses and protozoa), assumes that random contacts...... humans eating under-cooked pork meat harbouring T. solium metacestodes. Deterministic models of each scenario were first run, followed by stochastic versions of the models to assess the likelihood of infection elimination in the small population modelled. The effects of three groups of interventions were...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Susanne; Samson, Adeline
2016-01-01
Dynamics of the membrane potential in a single neuron can be studied by estimating biophysical parameters from intracellular recordings. Diffusion processes, given as continuous solutions to stochastic differential equations, are widely applied as models for the neuronal membrane potential evolut...
Stochastic modeling of virus capsid assembly pathways
Schwartz, Russell
2009-03-01
Virus capsids have become a key model system for understanding self-assembly due to their high complexity, robust and efficient assembly processes, and experimental tractability. Our ability to directly examine and manipulate capsid assembly kinetics in detail nonetheless remains limited, creating a need for computer models that can infer experimentally inaccessible features of the assembly process and explore the effects of hypothetical manipulations on assembly trajectories. We have developed novel algorithms for stochastic simulation of capsid assembly [1,2] that allow us to model capsid assembly over broad parameter spaces [3]. We apply these methods to study the nature of assembly pathway control in virus capsids as well as their sensitivity to assembly conditions and possible experimental interventions. [4pt] [1] F. Jamalyaria, R. Rohlfs, and R. Schwartz. J Comp Phys 204, 100 (2005). [0pt] [2] N. Misra and R. Schwartz. J Chem Phys 129, in press (2008). [0pt] [3] B. Sweeney, T. Zhang, and R. Schwartz. Biophys J 94, 772 (2008).
Stochastic Modeling of Reinforced Concrete Structures Exposed to Chloride Attack
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frier, Christian
2003-01-01
concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by stochastic fields. The paper contains a description of the parameters to be included in a stochastic model and a proposal for the information needed to obtain values for the parameters in order to be ab le to perform reliability investigations...... the reinforcement exceeds a critical threshold value. In the present paper a stochastic model is described by which the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be estimated. The chloride ingress is modeled by a 2-dimensional diffusion process and the diffusion coefficient, surface chloride...
Introduction to stochastic models in biology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Susanne; Samson, Adeline
2013-01-01
This chapter is concerned with continuous time processes, which are often modeled as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These models assume that the observed dynamics are driven exclusively by internal, deterministic mechanisms. However, real biological systems will always be exp...
Stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite-host epidemiological model
Liu, Yuting; Shan, Meijing; Lian, Xinze; Wang, Weiming
2016-11-01
In this paper, we investigate the stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite-host epidemiological model. We show that the global dynamics of the stochastic model can be governed by the basic reproduction number R0S : if R0S 1, under mild extra conditions, the disease persists and endemic dynamics occurs almost surely, the solutions of the stochastic model fluctuate around the steady state of the deterministic model, and a unique stationary distribution can be found. Based on realistic parameters of Daphnia-microparasite system, numerical simulations have been performed to verify/extend our analytical results. Epidemiologically, we find that: (1) Large environment fluctuations can suppress the outbreak of disease; (2) The distributions are governed by R0S ; (3) The noise perturbations can be beneficial to control the spread of disease on average.
Stochastic processes, multiscale modeling, and numerical methods for computational cellular biology
2017-01-01
This book focuses on the modeling and mathematical analysis of stochastic dynamical systems along with their simulations. The collected chapters will review fundamental and current topics and approaches to dynamical systems in cellular biology. This text aims to develop improved mathematical and computational methods with which to study biological processes. At the scale of a single cell, stochasticity becomes important due to low copy numbers of biological molecules, such as mRNA and proteins that take part in biochemical reactions driving cellular processes. When trying to describe such biological processes, the traditional deterministic models are often inadequate, precisely because of these low copy numbers. This book presents stochastic models, which are necessary to account for small particle numbers and extrinsic noise sources. The complexity of these models depend upon whether the biochemical reactions are diffusion-limited or reaction-limited. In the former case, one needs to adopt the framework of s...
Cooperative stochastic binding and unbinding explain synaptic size dynamics and statistics.
Shomar, Aseel; Geyrhofer, Lukas; Ziv, Noam E; Brenner, Naama
2017-07-01
Synapses are dynamic molecular assemblies whose sizes fluctuate significantly over time-scales of hours and days. In the current study, we examined the possibility that the spontaneous microscopic dynamics exhibited by synaptic molecules can explain the macroscopic size fluctuations of individual synapses and the statistical properties of synaptic populations. We present a mesoscopic model, which ties the two levels. Its basic premise is that synaptic size fluctuations reflect cooperative assimilation and removal of molecules at a patch of postsynaptic membrane. The introduction of cooperativity to both assimilation and removal in a stochastic biophysical model of these processes, gives rise to features qualitatively similar to those measured experimentally: nanoclusters of synaptic scaffolds, fluctuations in synaptic sizes, skewed, stable size distributions and their scaling in response to perturbations. Our model thus points to the potentially fundamental role of cooperativity in dictating synaptic remodeling dynamics and offers a conceptual understanding of these dynamics in terms of central microscopic features and processes.
Cooperative stochastic binding and unbinding explain synaptic size dynamics and statistics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aseel Shomar
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Synapses are dynamic molecular assemblies whose sizes fluctuate significantly over time-scales of hours and days. In the current study, we examined the possibility that the spontaneous microscopic dynamics exhibited by synaptic molecules can explain the macroscopic size fluctuations of individual synapses and the statistical properties of synaptic populations. We present a mesoscopic model, which ties the two levels. Its basic premise is that synaptic size fluctuations reflect cooperative assimilation and removal of molecules at a patch of postsynaptic membrane. The introduction of cooperativity to both assimilation and removal in a stochastic biophysical model of these processes, gives rise to features qualitatively similar to those measured experimentally: nanoclusters of synaptic scaffolds, fluctuations in synaptic sizes, skewed, stable size distributions and their scaling in response to perturbations. Our model thus points to the potentially fundamental role of cooperativity in dictating synaptic remodeling dynamics and offers a conceptual understanding of these dynamics in terms of central microscopic features and processes.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chon, K H; Hoyer, D; Armoundas, A A
1999-01-01
In this study, we introduce a new approach for estimating linear and nonlinear stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model parameters, given a corrupt signal, using artificial recurrent neural networks. This new approach is a two-step approach in which the parameters of the deterministic...... part of the stochastic ARMA model are first estimated via a three-layer artificial neural network (deterministic estimation step) and then reestimated using the prediction error as one of the inputs to the artificial neural networks in an iterative algorithm (stochastic estimation step). The prediction...... of significant amounts of either dynamic or measurement noise in the output signal. The comparison between the deterministic and stochastic recurrent neural network approaches is furthered by applying both approaches to experimentally obtained renal blood pressure and flow signals....
A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.
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Stefan Albert
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM, which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group
A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.
Albert, Stefan; Schmack, Katharina; Sterzer, Philipp; Schneider, Gaby
2017-11-01
Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM), which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group differences to
Dynamical transition on the periodic Lorentz gas: Stochastic and deterministic approaches
Feliczaki, Rafael Mateus; Vicentini, Eduardo; González-Borrero, Pedro Pablo
2017-11-01
The effect of dynamical properties of the periodic Lorentz gas on the autocorrelation function and diffusion coefficient are investigated in various geometric transitions between billiards without horizon and infinite horizon. Numerical simulations are performed using a double square lattice which permits us to isolate different types of corridors and to describe the individual effects of each corridor. The results are compared with a stochastic model based on a escape-rate formalism which reveals the sensibility of the diffusion coefficient and clarifies the role of the open corridors mechanism on the dynamical transitions
Stochastic modeling of mode interactions via linear parabolized stability equations
Ran, Wei; Zare, Armin; Hack, M. J. Philipp; Jovanovic, Mihailo
2017-11-01
Low-complexity approximations of the Navier-Stokes equations have been widely used in the analysis of wall-bounded shear flows. In particular, the parabolized stability equations (PSE) and Floquet theory have been employed to capture the evolution of primary and secondary instabilities in spatially-evolving flows. We augment linear PSE with Floquet analysis to formally treat modal interactions and the evolution of secondary instabilities in the transitional boundary layer via a linear progression. To this end, we leverage Floquet theory by incorporating the primary instability into the base flow and accounting for different harmonics in the flow state. A stochastic forcing is introduced into the resulting linear dynamics to model the effect of nonlinear interactions on the evolution of modes. We examine the H-type transition scenario to demonstrate how our approach can be used to model nonlinear effects and capture the growth of the fundamental and subharmonic modes observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments.
Modeling collective emotions: a stochastic approach based on Brownian agents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schweitzer, F.
2010-01-01
We develop a agent-based framework to model the emergence of collective emotions, which is applied to online communities. Agents individual emotions are described by their valence and arousal. Using the concept of Brownian agents, these variables change according to a stochastic dynamics, which also considers the feedback from online communication. Agents generate emotional information, which is stored and distributed in a field modeling the online medium. This field affects the emotional states of agents in a non-linear manner. We derive conditions for the emergence of collective emotions, observable in a bimodal valence distribution. Dependent on a saturated or a super linear feedback between the information field and the agent's arousal, we further identify scenarios where collective emotions only appear once or in a repeated manner. The analytical results are illustrated by agent-based computer simulations. Our framework provides testable hypotheses about the emergence of collective emotions, which can be verified by data from online communities. (author)
Yield curve event tree construction for multi stage stochastic programming models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Poulsen, Rolf
Dynamic stochastic programming (DSP) provides an intuitive framework for modelling of financial portfolio choice problems where market frictions are present and dynamic re--balancing has a significant effect on initial decisions. The application of these models in practice, however, is limited by...... of yield curves. Such trees may then be used to represent the underlying uncertainty in DSP models of fixed income risk and portfolio management....
Efficient stochastic thermostatting of path integral molecular dynamics.
Ceriotti, Michele; Parrinello, Michele; Markland, Thomas E; Manolopoulos, David E
2010-09-28
The path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) method provides a convenient way to compute the quantum mechanical structural and thermodynamic properties of condensed phase systems at the expense of introducing an additional set of high frequency normal modes on top of the physical vibrations of the system. Efficiently sampling such a wide range of frequencies provides a considerable thermostatting challenge. Here we introduce a simple stochastic path integral Langevin equation (PILE) thermostat which exploits an analytic knowledge of the free path integral normal mode frequencies. We also apply a recently developed colored noise thermostat based on a generalized Langevin equation (GLE), which automatically achieves a similar, frequency-optimized sampling. The sampling efficiencies of these thermostats are compared with that of the more conventional Nosé-Hoover chain (NHC) thermostat for a number of physically relevant properties of the liquid water and hydrogen-in-palladium systems. In nearly every case, the new PILE thermostat is found to perform just as well as the NHC thermostat while allowing for a computationally more efficient implementation. The GLE thermostat also proves to be very robust delivering a near-optimum sampling efficiency in all of the cases considered. We suspect that these simple stochastic thermostats will therefore find useful application in many future PIMD simulations.
Ghanem, Bernard
2013-01-01
This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Miyamoto, H.; Kimura, R.
2016-12-01
This presentation proposes a stochastic evaluation method for examining tree population states in a river cross section using an integrated model with Monte Carlo simulation. The integrated model consists of four processes as sub-models, i.e., tree population dynamics, flow discharge stochasticity, stream hydraulics, and channel geomorphology. A floodplain of the Kako River in Japan was examined as a test site, which is currently well vegetated and features many willows that have been growing in both individual size and overall population over the last several decades. The model was used to stochastically evaluate the effects of hydrologic and geomorphologic changes on tree population dynamics through the Monte Carlo simulation. The effects including the magnitude of flood impacts and the relative change in the floodplain level are examined using very simple scenarios for flow regulation, climate change, and channel form changes. The stochastic evaluation method revealed a tradeoff point in floodplain levels, at which the tendency of a fully vegetated state switches to that of a bare floodplain under small impacts of flood. It is concluded from these results that the states of tree population in a floodplain can be determined by the mutual interactions among flood impacts, seedling recruitment, tree growth, and channel geomorphology. These interactions make it difficult to obtain a basic understanding of tree population dynamics from a field study of a specific floodplain. The stochastic approach used in this presentation could constitute an effective method for evaluating fundamental channel characteristics for a vegetated floodplain.
Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making
Vogel, R. M.
2017-12-01
Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation
Stochastic linear hybrid systems: Modeling, estimation, and application
Seah, Chze Eng
Hybrid systems are dynamical systems which have interacting continuous state and discrete state (or mode). Accurate modeling and state estimation of hybrid systems are important in many applications. We propose a hybrid system model, known as the Stochastic Linear Hybrid System (SLHS), to describe hybrid systems with stochastic linear system dynamics in each mode and stochastic continuous-state-dependent mode transitions. We then develop a hybrid estimation algorithm, called the State-Dependent-Transition Hybrid Estimation (SDTHE) algorithm, to estimate the continuous state and discrete state of the SLHS from noisy measurements. It is shown that the SDTHE algorithm is more accurate or more computationally efficient than existing hybrid estimation algorithms. Next, we develop a performance analysis algorithm to evaluate the performance of the SDTHE algorithm in a given operating scenario. We also investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of the SDTHE algorithm. The proposed SLHS model and SDTHE algorithm are illustrated to be useful in several applications. In Air Traffic Control (ATC), to facilitate implementations of new efficient operational concepts, accurate modeling and estimation of aircraft trajectories are needed. In ATC, an aircraft's trajectory can be divided into a number of flight modes. Furthermore, as the aircraft is required to follow a given flight plan or clearance, its flight mode transitions are dependent of its continuous state. However, the flight mode transitions are also stochastic due to navigation uncertainties or unknown pilot intents. Thus, we develop an aircraft dynamics model in ATC based on the SLHS. The SDTHE algorithm is then used in aircraft tracking applications to estimate the positions/velocities of aircraft and their flight modes accurately. Next, we develop an aircraft conformance monitoring algorithm to detect any deviations of aircraft trajectories in ATC that might compromise safety. In this application, the SLHS
Model selection for integrated pest management with stochasticity.
Akman, Olcay; Comar, Timothy D; Hrozencik, Daniel
2018-04-07
In Song and Xiang (2006), an integrated pest management model with periodically varying climatic conditions was introduced. In order to address a wider range of environmental effects, the authors here have embarked upon a series of studies resulting in a more flexible modeling approach. In Akman et al. (2013), the impact of randomly changing environmental conditions is examined by incorporating stochasticity into the birth pulse of the prey species. In Akman et al. (2014), the authors introduce a class of models via a mixture of two birth-pulse terms and determined conditions for the global and local asymptotic stability of the pest eradication solution. With this work, the authors unify the stochastic and mixture model components to create further flexibility in modeling the impacts of random environmental changes on an integrated pest management system. In particular, we first determine the conditions under which solutions of our deterministic mixture model are permanent. We then analyze the stochastic model to find the optimal value of the mixing parameter that minimizes the variance in the efficacy of the pesticide. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to show that the corresponding pesticide efficacy determined by this optimization technique is indeed robust. Through numerical simulations we show that permanence can be preserved in our stochastic model. Our study of the stochastic version of the model indicates that our results on the deterministic model provide informative conclusions about the behavior of the stochastic model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lima, L. S.; Miranda, L. L. B.
2018-01-01
We have used the Itô's stochastic differential equation for the double well with additive white noise as a mathematical model for price dynamics of the financial market. We have presented a model which allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents, with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the β parameter that represents the force of the randomness term of the model.
Determining Reduced Order Models for Optimal Stochastic Reduced Order Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bonney, Matthew S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Brake, Matthew R.W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
2015-08-01
The use of parameterized reduced order models(PROMs) within the stochastic reduced order model (SROM) framework is a logical progression for both methods. In this report, five different parameterized reduced order models are selected and critiqued against the other models along with truth model for the example of the Brake-Reuss beam. The models are: a Taylor series using finite difference, a proper orthogonal decomposition of the the output, a Craig-Bampton representation of the model, a method that uses Hyper-Dual numbers to determine the sensitivities, and a Meta-Model method that uses the Hyper-Dual results and constructs a polynomial curve to better represent the output data. The methods are compared against a parameter sweep and a distribution propagation where the first four statistical moments are used as a comparison. Each method produces very accurate results with the Craig-Bampton reduction having the least accurate results. The models are also compared based on time requirements for the evaluation of each model where the Meta- Model requires the least amount of time for computation by a significant amount. Each of the five models provided accurate results in a reasonable time frame. The determination of which model to use is dependent on the availability of the high-fidelity model and how many evaluations can be performed. Analysis of the output distribution is examined by using a large Monte-Carlo simulation along with a reduced simulation using Latin Hypercube and the stochastic reduced order model sampling technique. Both techniques produced accurate results. The stochastic reduced order modeling technique produced less error when compared to an exhaustive sampling for the majority of methods.
Barthel, Thomas; De Bacco, Caterina; Franz, Silvio
2018-01-01
We introduce and apply an efficient method for the precise simulation of stochastic dynamical processes on locally treelike graphs. Networks with cycles are treated in the framework of the cavity method. Such models correspond, for example, to spin-glass systems, Boolean networks, neural networks, or other technological, biological, and social networks. Building upon ideas from quantum many-body theory, our approach is based on a matrix product approximation of the so-called edge messages—conditional probabilities of vertex variable trajectories. Computation costs and accuracy can be tuned by controlling the matrix dimensions of the matrix product edge messages (MPEM) in truncations. In contrast to Monte Carlo simulations, the algorithm has a better error scaling and works for both single instances as well as the thermodynamic limit. We employ it to examine prototypical nonequilibrium Glauber dynamics in the kinetic Ising model. Because of the absence of cancellation effects, observables with small expectation values can be evaluated accurately, allowing for the study of decay processes and temporal correlations.
On changes of measure in stochastic volatility models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bernard Wong
2006-01-01
models. This had led many researchers to “assume the condition away,” even though the condition is not innocuous, and nonsensical results can occur if it is in fact not satisfied. We provide an applicable theorem to check the conditions for a general class of Markovian stochastic volatility models. As an example we will also provide a detailed analysis of the Stein and Stein and Heston stochastic volatility models.
Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Valor
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.
Can a microscopic stochastic model explain the emergence of pain cycles in patients?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Di Patti, Francesca; Fanelli, Duccio
2009-01-01
A stochastic model is introduced here to investigate the molecular mechanisms which trigger the perception of pain. The action of analgesic drug compounds is discussed in a dynamical context, where the competition with inactive species is explicitly accounted for. Finite size effects inevitably perturb the mean-field dynamics: oscillations in the amount of bound receptors are spontaneously manifested, driven by the noise which is intrinsic to the system under scrutiny. These effects are investigated both numerically, via stochastic simulations, and analytically, through a large size expansion. The claim that our findings could provide a consistent interpretative framework for explaining the emergence of cyclic behaviors in response to analgesic treatments is substantiated
The stochastic dynamics of intermittent porescale particle motion
Dentz, Marco; Morales, Veronica; Puyguiraud, Alexandre; Gouze, Philippe; Willmann, Matthias; Holzner, Markus
2017-04-01
Numerical and experimental data for porescale particle dynamics show intermittent patterns in Lagrangian velocities and accelerations, which manifest in long time intervals of low and short durations of high velocities [1, 2]. This phenomenon is due to the spatial persistence of particle velocities on characteristic heterogeneity length scales. In order to systematically quantify these behaviors and extract the stochastic dynamics of particle motion, we focus on the analysis of Lagrangian velocities sampled equidistantly along trajectories [3]. This method removes the intermittency observed under isochrone sampling. The space-Lagrangian velocity series can be quantified by a Markov process that is continuous in distance along streamline. It is fully parameterized in terms of the flux-weighted Eulerian velocity PDF and the characteristic pore-length. The resulting stochastic particle motion describes a continuous time random walk (CTRW). This approach allows for the process based interpretation of experimental and numerical porescale velocity, acceleration and displacement data. It provides a framework for the characterization and upscaling of particle transport and dispersion from the pore to the Darcy-scale based on the medium geometry and Eulerian flow attributes. [1] P. De Anna, T. Le Borgne, M. Dentz, A.M. Tartakovsky, D. Bolster, and P. Davy, "Flow intermittency, dispersion, and correlated continuous time random walks in porous media," Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 184502 (2013). [2] M. Holzner, V. L. Morales, M. Willmann, and M. Dentz, "Intermittent Lagrangian velocities and accelerations in three- dimensional porous medium flow," Phys. Rev. E 92, 013015 (2015). [3] M. Dentz, P. K. Kang, A. Comolli, T. Le Borgne, and D. R. Lester, "Continuous time random walks for the evolution of Lagrangian velocities," Phys. Rev. Fluids (2016).
Non-equilibrium stochastic dynamics in continuum: The free case
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y.Kondratiev
2008-12-01
Full Text Available We study the problem of identification of a proper state-space for the stochastic dynamics of free particles in continuum, with their possible birth and death. In this dynamics, the motion of each separate particle is described by a fixed Markov process M on a Riemannian manifold X. The main problem arising here is a possible collapse of the system, in the sense that, though the initial configuration of particles is locally finite, there could exist a compact set in X such that, with probability one, infinitely many particles will arrive at this set at some time t>0. We assume that X has infinite volume and, for each α���1, we consider the set Θα of all infinite configurations in X for which the number of particles in a compact set is bounded by a constant times the α-th power of the volume of the set. We find quite general conditions on the process M which guarantee that the corresponding infinite particle process can start at each configuration from Θα, will never leave Θα, and has cadlag (or, even, continuous sample paths in the vague topology. We consider the following examples of applications of our results: Brownian motion on the configuration space, free Glauber dynamics on the configuration space (or a birth-and-death process in X, and free Kawasaki dynamics on the configuration space. We also show that if X=Rd, then for a wide class of starting distributions, the (non-equilibrium free Glauber dynamics is a scaling limit of (non-equilibrium free Kawasaki dynamics.
Medium Term Hydroelectric Production Planning - A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
BITA ANALUI
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Multistage stochastic programming is a key technology for making decisions over time in an uncertain environment. One of the promising areas in which this technology is implementable, is medium term planning of electricity production and trading where decision makers are typically faced with uncertain parameters (such as future demands and market prices that can be described by stochastic processes in discrete time. We apply this methodology to hydrosystem operation assuming random electricity prices and random inflows to the reservoir system. After describing the multistage stochastic model a simple case study is presented. In particular we use the model for pricing an electricity delivery contract in the framework of indifference pricing.
Simulation of the stochastic wave loads using a physical modeling approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, W.F.; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.
2013-01-01
In analyzing stochastic dynamic systems, analysis of the system uncertainty due to randomness in the loads plays a crucial role. Typically time series of the stochastic loads are simulated using traditional random phase method. This approach combined with fast Fourier transform algorithm makes...... an efficient way of simulating realizations of the stochastic load processes. However it requires many random variables, i.e. in the order of magnitude of 1000, to be included in the load model. Unfortunately having too many random variables in the problem makes considerable difficulties in analyzing system...... reliability or its uncertainty. Moreover applicability of the probability density evolution method on engineering problems faces critical difficulties when the system embeds too many random variables. Hence it is useful to devise a method which can make realization of the stochastic load processes with low...
Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus.
Jonzén, Niclas; Pople, Tony; Knape, Jonas; Sköld, Martin
2010-01-01
1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.
Stochastic hybrid model of spontaneous dendritic NMDA spikes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bressloff, Paul C; Newby, Jay M
2014-01-01
Following recent advances in imaging techniques and methods of dendritic stimulation, active voltage spikes have been observed in thin dendritic branches of excitatory pyramidal neurons, where the majority of synapses occur. The generation of these dendritic spikes involves both Na + ion channels and M-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) channels. During strong stimulation of a thin dendrite, the resulting high levels of glutamate, the main excitatory neurotransmitter in the central nervous system and an NMDA agonist, modify the current-voltage (I–V) characteristics of an NMDAR so that it behaves like a voltage-gated Na + channel. Hence, the NMDARs can fire a regenerative dendritic spike, just as Na + channels support the initiation of an action potential following membrane depolarization. However, the duration of the dendritic spike is of the order 100 ms rather than 1 ms, since it involves slow unbinding of glutamate from NMDARs rather than activation of hyperpolarizing K + channels. It has been suggested that dendritic NMDA spikes may play an important role in dendritic computations and provide a cellular substrate for short-term memory. In this paper, we consider a stochastic, conductance-based model of dendritic NMDA spikes, in which the noise originates from the stochastic opening and closing of a finite number of Na + and NMDA receptor ion channels. The resulting model takes the form of a stochastic hybrid system, in which membrane voltage evolves according to a piecewise deterministic dynamics that is coupled to a jump Markov process describing the opening and closing of the ion channels. We formulate the noise-induced initiation and termination of a dendritic spike in terms of a first-passage time problem, under the assumption that glutamate unbinding is negligible, which we then solve using a combination of WKB methods and singular perturbation theory. Using a stochastic phase-plane analysis we then extend our analysis to take proper account of the
A stochastic model of input effectiveness during irregular gamma rhythms.
Dumont, Grégory; Northoff, Georg; Longtin, André
2016-02-01
Gamma-band synchronization has been linked to attention and communication between brain regions, yet the underlying dynamical mechanisms are still unclear. How does the timing and amplitude of inputs to cells that generate an endogenously noisy gamma rhythm affect the network activity and rhythm? How does such "communication through coherence" (CTC) survive in the face of rhythm and input variability? We present a stochastic modelling approach to this question that yields a very fast computation of the effectiveness of inputs to cells involved in gamma rhythms. Our work is partly motivated by recent optogenetic experiments (Cardin et al. Nature, 459(7247), 663-667 2009) that tested the gamma phase-dependence of network responses by first stabilizing the rhythm with periodic light pulses to the interneurons (I). Our computationally efficient model E-I network of stochastic two-state neurons exhibits finite-size fluctuations. Using the Hilbert transform and Kuramoto index, we study how the stochastic phase of its gamma rhythm is entrained by external pulses. We then compute how this rhythmic inhibition controls the effectiveness of external input onto pyramidal (E) cells, and how variability shapes the window of firing opportunity. For transferring the time variations of an external input to the E cells, we find a tradeoff between the phase selectivity and depth of rate modulation. We also show that the CTC is sensitive to the jitter in the arrival times of spikes to the E cells, and to the degree of I-cell entrainment. We further find that CTC can occur even if the underlying deterministic system does not oscillate; quasicycle-type rhythms induced by the finite-size noise retain the basic CTC properties. Finally a resonance analysis confirms the relative importance of the I cell pacing for rhythm generation. Analysis of whole network behaviour, including computations of synchrony, phase and shifts in excitatory-inhibitory balance, can be further sped up by orders of
Stochastic mixed-mode oscillations in a three-species predator-prey model
Sadhu, Susmita; Kuehn, Christian
2018-03-01
The effect of demographic stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with one fast and two slow variables is studied. We derive the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a discrete model. For suitable parameter values, the deterministic drift part of the model admits a folded node singularity and exhibits a singular Hopf bifurcation. We focus on the parameter regime near the Hopf bifurcation, where small amplitude oscillations exist as stable dynamics in the absence of noise. In this regime, the stochastic model admits noise-driven mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs), which capture the intermediate dynamics between two cycles of population outbreaks. We perform numerical simulations to calculate the distribution of the random number of small oscillations between successive spikes for varying noise intensities and distance to the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the effect of noise on a suitable Poincaré map. Finally, we prove that the stochastic model can be transformed into a normal form near the folded node, which can be linked to recent results on the interplay between deterministic and stochastic small amplitude oscillations. The normal form can also be used to study the parameter influence on the noise level near folded singularities.
Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henshall, G.A.
1991-10-01
Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed
Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zeng, Kebin
form of discrete PH distributions as computational vehicle on measuring the performance of concurrent wireless sensor networks. Secondly, choosing stochastic process algebras as a widely accepted formalism, we study the compositionality of continuous PH distributions in order to support modelling...
Using an atmospheric turbulence model for the stochastic model of geodetic VLBI data analysis
Halsig, Sebastian; Artz, Thomas; Iddink, Andreas; Nothnagel, Axel
2016-06-01
Space-geodetic techniques at radio wavelength, such as global navigation satellite systems and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), suffer from refractivity of the Earth's atmosphere. These highly dynamic processes, particularly refractivity variations in the neutral atmosphere, contribute considerably to the error budget of these space-geodetic techniques. Here, microscale fluctuations in refractivity lead to elevation-dependent uncertainties and induce physical correlations between the observations. However, up to now such correlations are not considered routinely in the stochastic model of space-geodetic observations, which leads to very optimistic standard deviations of the derived target parameters, such as Earth orientation parameters and station positions. In this study, the standard stochastic model of VLBI observations, which only includes, almost exclusively, the uncertainties from the VLBI correlation process, is now augmented by a variance-covariance matrix derived from an atmospheric turbulence model. Thus, atmospheric refractivity fluctuations in space and time can be quantified. One of the main objectives is to realize a suitable stochastic model of VLBI observations in an operational way. In order to validate the new approach, the turbulence model is applied to several VLBI observation campaigns consisting of different network geometries leading the path for the next-generation VLBI campaigns. It is shown that the stochastic model of VLBI observations can be improved by using high-frequency atmospheric variations and, thus, refining the stochastic model leads to far more realistic standard deviations of the target parameters. The baseline length repeatabilities as a general measure of accuracy of baseline length determinations improve for the turbulence-based solution. Further, this method is well suited for routine VLBI data analysis with limited computational costs.
Cotter, C J; Gottwald, G A; Holm, D D
2017-09-01
In Holm (Holm 2015 Proc. R. Soc. A 471 , 20140963. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2014.0963)), stochastic fluid equations were derived by employing a variational principle with an assumed stochastic Lagrangian particle dynamics. Here we show that the same stochastic Lagrangian dynamics naturally arises in a multi-scale decomposition of the deterministic Lagrangian flow map into a slow large-scale mean and a rapidly fluctuating small-scale map. We employ homogenization theory to derive effective slow stochastic particle dynamics for the resolved mean part, thereby obtaining stochastic fluid partial equations in the Eulerian formulation. To justify the application of rigorous homogenization theory, we assume mildly chaotic fast small-scale dynamics, as well as a centring condition. The latter requires that the mean of the fluctuating deviations is small, when pulled back to the mean flow.
Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion
Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Velázquez, J. C.; Hallen, J. M.
2013-01-01
The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure ...
A Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Durations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wei, Wei; Pelletier, Denis
Market microstructure theories suggest that the durations between transactions carry information about volatility. This paper puts forward a model featuring stochastic volatility, stochastic conditional duration, and jumps to analyze high frequency returns and durations. Durations affect price...... jumps in two ways: as exogenous sampling intervals, and through the interaction with volatility. We adopt a bivariate Ornstein-Ulenbeck process to model intraday volatility and conditional duration. We develop a MCMC algorithm for the inference on irregularly spaced multivariate processes with jumps...
Dynamics of autonomous stochastic resonance in neural period adding bifurcation scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gu Huaguang; Yang Minghao; Li Li; Liu Zhiqiang; Ren Wei
2003-01-01
New firing patterns, composed of a stochastic alternation of two periodic bursts, were generated near each bifurcation point of period adding bifurcation scenario without chaos in the experimental neural pacemaker, in the stochastic Chay model but not in the deterministic model. It was a stochastic transition between two neighboring bursting and exhibited approximate integer multiple characteristics. Autonomous stochastic resonance (ASR) was verified to be the cause of the generation of this stochastic alternation pattern in the stochastic Chay model. The stochastic transition between two periodic superthreshold bursts generated near a critical phase in the two trajectories was the underlying basis of the effect of ASR. The results showed that except the Hopf bifurcation point, ASR could be generated in a series of period adding bifurcation points, and indicated that noise played more extensive roles in neural coding than recognized before
Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr
2017-12-21
Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.
Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr
2017-12-01
Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.
Sufficient Stochastic Maximum Principle in a Regime-Switching Diffusion Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Donnelly, Catherine
2011-01-01
We prove a sufficient stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control of a regime-switching diffusion model. We show the connection to dynamic programming and we apply the result to a quadratic loss minimization problem, which can be used to solve a mean-variance portfolio selection problem.
J. Dorrestijn (Jesse); D.T. Crommelin (Daan); A.P. Siebesma (Pier); H.J.J. Jonker (Harm); C Jakob
2015-01-01
htmlabstractObservational data of rainfall from a rain radar in Darwin, Australia, are combined with data defining the large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic state of the atmosphere around Darwin to develop a multicloud model based on a stochastic method using conditional Markov chains. The authors
Luo, Albert C J
2011-01-01
In memory of Dr. George Zaslavsky, "Long-range Interactions, Stochasticity and Fractional Dynamics" covers the recent developments of long-range interaction, fractional dynamics, brain dynamics and stochastic theory of turbulence, each chapter was written by established scientists in the field. The book is dedicated to Dr. George Zaslavsky, who was one of three founders of the theory of Hamiltonian chaos. The book discusses self-similarity and stochasticity and fractionality for discrete and continuous dynamical systems, as well as long-range interactions and diluted networks. A comprehensive theory for brain dynamics is also presented. In addition, the complexity and stochasticity for soliton chains and turbulence are addressed. The book is intended for researchers in the field of nonlinear dynamics in mathematics, physics and engineering. Dr. Albert C.J. Luo is a Professor at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, USA. Dr. Valentin Afraimovich is a Professor at San Luis Potosi University, Mexico.
Modeling the euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp by stochastic differential equations.
Picchini, Umberto; Ditlevsen, Susanne; De Gaetano, Andrea
2006-11-01
The Euglycemic Hyperinsulinemic Clamp (EHC) is the most widely used experimental procedure for the determination of insulin sensitivity. In the present study, 16 subjects with BMI between 18.5 and 63.6 kg/m(2) have been studied with a long-duration (5 hours) EHC. In order to explain the oscillations of glycemia occurring in response to the hyperinsulinization and to the continuous glucose infusion at varying speeds, we first hypothesized a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), with limited success. We then extended the model and represented the experiment using a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The latter allow for distinction between (i) random variation imputable to observation error and (ii) system noise (intrinsic variability of the metabolic system), due to a variety of influences which change over time. The stochastic model of the EHC was fitted to data and the system noise was estimated by means of a (simulated) maximum likelihood procedure, for a series of different hypothetical measurement error values. We showed that, for the whole range of reasonable measurement error values: (i) the system noise estimates are non-negligible; and (ii) these estimates are robust to changes in the likely value of the measurement error. Explicit expression of system noise is physiologically relevant in this case, since glucose uptake rate is known to be affected by a host of additive influences, usually neglected when modeling metabolism. While in some of the studied subjects system noise appeared to only marginally affect the dynamics, in others the system appeared to be driven more by the erratic oscillations in tissue glucose transport rather than by the overall glucose-insulin control system. It is possible that the quantitative relevance of the unexpressed effects (system noise) should be considered in other physiological situations, represented so far only with deterministic models.
Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.
2016-12-01
One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.
Composed particle model in stochastic electrodynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brunini, S.A.
1985-01-01
We analyse the statistical properties of the non-relativistic motion of a particle that has two constituents having finite nasses and charges. The main interaction is in contact with thermal and zero point radiation of Stochastic Electrodynamics. (M.W.O.) [pt
A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.
2008-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems
A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.
2008-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)
Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms
Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.
2014-01-01
The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.
The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination
Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing
2016-11-01
In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.
A stochastic model of nanoparticle self-assembly on Cayley trees
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazilu, I; Schwen, E M; Banks, W E; Pope, B K; Mazilu, D A
2015-01-01
Nanomedicine is an emerging area of medical research that uses innovative nanotechnologies to improve the delivery of therapeutic and diagnostic agents with maximum clinical benefit. We present a versatile stochastic model that can be used to capture the basic features of drug encapsulation of nanoparticles on tree-like synthetic polymers called dendrimers. The geometry of a dendrimer is described mathematically as a Cayley tree. We use our stochastic model to study the dynamics of deposition and release of monomers (simulating the drug molecules) on Cayley trees (simulating dendrimers). We present analytical and Monte Carlo simulation results for the particle density on Cayley trees of coordination number three and four
Nonperturbative stochastic method for driven spin-boson model
Orth, Peter P.; Imambekov, Adilet; Le Hur, Karyn
2013-01-01
We introduce and apply a numerically exact method for investigating the real-time dissipative dynamics of quantum impurities embedded in a macroscopic environment beyond the weak-coupling limit. We focus on the spin-boson Hamiltonian that describes a two-level system interacting with a bosonic bath of harmonic oscillators. This model is archetypal for investigating dissipation in quantum systems, and tunable experimental realizations exist in mesoscopic and cold-atom systems. It finds abundant applications in physics ranging from the study of decoherence in quantum computing and quantum optics to extended dynamical mean-field theory. Starting from the real-time Feynman-Vernon path integral, we derive an exact stochastic Schrödinger equation that allows us to compute the full spin density matrix and spin-spin correlation functions beyond weak coupling. We greatly extend our earlier work [P. P. Orth, A. Imambekov, and K. Le Hur, Phys. Rev. APLRAAN1050-294710.1103/PhysRevA.82.032118 82, 032118 (2010)] by fleshing out the core concepts of the method and by presenting a number of interesting applications. Methodologically, we present an analogy between the dissipative dynamics of a quantum spin and that of a classical spin in a random magnetic field. This analogy is used to recover the well-known noninteracting-blip approximation in the weak-coupling limit. We explain in detail how to compute spin-spin autocorrelation functions. As interesting applications of our method, we explore the non-Markovian effects of the initial spin-bath preparation on the dynamics of the coherence σx(t) and of σz(t) under a Landau-Zener sweep of the bias field. We also compute to a high precision the asymptotic long-time dynamics of σz(t) without bias and demonstrate the wide applicability of our approach by calculating the spin dynamics at nonzero bias and different temperatures.
Analysis of stochastic effects in Kaldor-type business cycle discrete model
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Sysolyatina, Anna
2016-07-01
We study nonlinear stochastic phenomena in the discrete Kaldor model of business cycles. A numerical parametric analysis of stochastically forced attractors (equilibria, closed invariant curves, discrete cycles) of this model is performed using the stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A spatial arrangement of random states in stochastic attractors is modeled by confidence domains. The phenomenon of noise-induced transitions ;chaos-order; is discussed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, Zhi-Wen; Zhang, Qing-Xin; Xu, Jia
2014-01-01
A kind of shape memory alloy (SMA) hysteretic nonlinear model was developed, and the nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation characteristics of the SMA thin film subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation were investigated. Van der Pol difference item was introduced to describe the hysteretic phenomena of the SMA strain–stress curves, and the nonlinear dynamic model of the SMA thin film subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation was developed. The conditions of global stochastic stability of the system were determined in singular boundary theory, and the probability density function of the system response was obtained. Finally, the conditions of stochastic Hopf bifurcation were analyzed. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation indicate that self-excited vibration is induced by the hysteretic nonlinear characteristics of SMA, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation appears when the bifurcation parameter was changed; there are two limit cycles in the stationary probability density of the dynamic response of the system in some cases, which means that there are two vibration amplitudes whose probabilities are both very high, and jumping phenomena between the two vibration amplitudes appear with the change in conditions. The results obtained in this current paper are helpful for the application of the SMA thin film in stochastic vibration fields. - Highlights: • Hysteretic nonlinear model of shape memory alloy was developed. • Van der Pol item was introduced to interpret hysteretic strain–stress curves. • Nonlinear dynamic characteristics of the shape memory alloy film were analyzed. • Jumping phenomena were observed in the change of the parameters
A Non-linear Stochastic Model for an Office Building with Air Infiltration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thavlov, Anders; Madsen, Henrik
2015-01-01
This paper presents a non-linear heat dynamic model for a multi-room office building with air infiltration. Several linear and non-linear models, with and without air infiltration, are investigated and compared. The models are formulated using stochastic differential equations and the model param...... heat load reduction during peak load hours, control of indoor air temperature and for generating forecasts of power consumption from space heating....
Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models
Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K.; Byrne, Helen
2015-10-01
Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.
Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction-diffusion models.
Spill, Fabian
2015-10-01
Reaction-diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction-diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model.
The multivariate supOU stochastic volatility model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Stelzer, Robert
structure of the volatility, the log returns, as well as their "squares" are discussed in detail. Moreover, we give several examples in which long memory effects occur and study how the model as well as the simple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type stochastic volatility model behave under linear transformations......Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modelling long range dependence effects. The finiteness of moments and the second order....... In particular, the models are shown to be preserved under invertible linear transformations. Finally, we discuss how (sup)OU stochastic volatility models can be combined with a factor modelling approach....
Effect of Stochastic Charge Fluctuations on Dust Dynamics
Matthews, Lorin; Shotorban, Babak; Hyde, Truell
2017-10-01
The charging of particles in a plasma environment occurs through the collection of electrons and ions on the particle surface. Depending on the particle size and the plasma density, the standard deviation of the number of collected elementary charges, which fluctuates due to the randomness in times of collisions with electrons or ions, may be a significant fraction of the equilibrium charge. We use a discrete stochastic charging model to simulate the variations in charge across the dust surface as well as in time. The resultant asymmetric particle potentials, even for spherical grains, has a significant impact on the particle coagulation rate as well as the structure of the resulting aggregates. We compare the effects on particle collisions and growth in typical laboratory and astrophysical plasma environments. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant PHY-1414523.
Stochastic dynamics of spatial effects in fragmentation of clusters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salinas-Rodriguez, E.; Rodriguez, R.F.; Zamora, J.M.
1991-01-01
We use a stochastic approach to study the effects of spatial in homogeneities in the kinetics of a fragmentation model which occurs in cluster breakup and polymer degradation. The analytical form of the cluster size distribution function is obtained for both the discrete and continuous limits. From it we calculate numerically the average size and volume of the clusters, their total concentration and the total scattering of the dispersion in both limits. The influence of spatial effects is explicitly shown in the last two quantities. From our description the equations for the equal-time and the two times density correlation functions are also derived in the continuous limit. Finally, the perspectives and limitations of our approach are discussed (Author)
Stochastic line motion and stochastic flux conservation for nonideal hydromagnetic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eyink, Gregory L.
2009-01-01
We prove that smooth solutions of nonideal (viscous and resistive) incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations satisfy a stochastic law of flux conservation. This property implies that the magnetic flux through a surface is equal to the average of the magnetic fluxes through an ensemble of surfaces advected backward in time by the plasma velocity perturbed with a random white noise. Our result is an analog of the well-known Alfven theorem of ideal MHD and is valid for any value of the magnetic Prandtl number. A second stochastic conservation law is shown to hold at unit Prandtl number, a random version of the generalized Kelvin theorem derived by Bekenstein and Oron for ideal MHD. These stochastic conservation laws are not only shown to be consequences of the nonideal MHD equations but are proved in fact to be equivalent to those equations. We derive similar results for two more refined hydromagnetic models, Hall MHD and the two-fluid plasma model, still assuming incompressible velocities and isotropic transport coefficients. Finally, we use these results to discuss briefly the infinite-Reynolds-number limit of hydromagnetic turbulence and to support the conjecture that flux conservation remains stochastic in that limit.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Khoo, Wai
1999-01-01
.... These problems model stochastic portfolio optimization problems (SPOPs) which assume deterministic unit weight, and normally distributed unit return with known mean and variance for each item type...
Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš
2015-01-01
This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)
Stochastic models to simulate paratuberculosis in dairy herds
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Weber, M.F.; Kudahl, Anne Margrethe Braad
2011-01-01
Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use...... the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution...