International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.
2001-01-01
The estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from projection data is potentially useful for clinical dynamic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies, particularly in those clinics that have only single-detector systems and thus are not able to perform rapid tomographic acquisitions. Because the radiopharmaceutical distribution changes while the SPECT gantry rotates, projections at different angles come from different tracer distributions. A dynamic image sequence reconstructed from the inconsistent projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry can contain artifacts that lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying regions of interest on the images. If cone beam collimators are used and the focal point of the collimators always remains in a particular transaxial plane, additional artifacts can arise in other planes reconstructed using insufficient projection samples [1]. If the projection samples truncate the patient's body, this can result in additional image artifacts. To overcome these sources of bias in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we and others have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view [2-8]. In our previous work we developed a computationally efficient method for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions from dynamic SPECT projection data [5], which extended Formiconi's least squares algorithm for reconstructing temporally static distributions [9]. In addition, we studied the biases that result from modeling various orders temporal continuity and using various time samplings [5]. the present work, we address computational issues associated with evaluating the statistical uncertainty of
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Casanueva
2013-08-01
Full Text Available The study of extreme events has become of great interest in recent years due to their direct impact on society. Extremes are usually evaluated by using extreme indicators, based on order statistics on the tail of the probability distribution function (typically percentiles. In this study, we focus on the tail of the distribution of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. For this purpose, we analyse high (95th and low (5th percentiles in daily maximum and minimum temperatures on the Iberian Peninsula, respectively, derived from different downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical. First, we analyse the performance of reanalysis-driven downscaling methods in present climate conditions. The comparison among the different methods is performed in terms of the bias of seasonal percentiles, considering as observations the public gridded data sets E-OBS and Spain02, and obtaining an estimation of both the mean and spatial percentile errors. Secondly, we analyse the increments of future percentile projections under the SRES A1B scenario and compare them with those corresponding to the mean temperature, showing that their relative importance depends on the method, and stressing the need to consider an ensemble of methodologies.
[''R"--project for statistical computing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dessau, R.B.; Pipper, Christian Bressen
2008-01-01
An introduction to the R project for statistical computing (www.R-project.org) is presented. The main topics are: 1. To make the professional community aware of "R" as a potent and free software for graphical and statistical analysis of medical data; 2. Simple well-known statistical tests are fai...... are fairly easy to perform in R, but more complex modelling requires programming skills; 3. R is seen as a tool for teaching statistics and implementing complex modelling of medical data among medical professionals Udgivelsesdato: 2008/1/28......An introduction to the R project for statistical computing (www.R-project.org) is presented. The main topics are: 1. To make the professional community aware of "R" as a potent and free software for graphical and statistical analysis of medical data; 2. Simple well-known statistical tests...
Statistical Techniques for Project Control
Badiru, Adedeji B
2012-01-01
A project can be simple or complex. In each case, proven project management processes must be followed. In all cases of project management implementation, control must be exercised in order to assure that project objectives are achieved. Statistical Techniques for Project Control seamlessly integrates qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques for project control. It fills the void that exists in the application of statistical techniques to project control. The book begins by defining the fundamentals of project management then explores how to temper quantitative analysis with qualitati
Editorial to: Six papers on Dynamic Statistical Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
2014-01-01
statistical methodology and theory for large and complex data sets that included biostatisticians and mathematical statisticians from three faculties at the University of Copenhagen. The satellite meeting took place August 17–19, 2011. Its purpose was to bring together researchers in statistics and related......The following six papers are based on invited lectures at the satellite meeting held at the University of Copenhagen before the 58th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute in Dublin in 2011. At the invitation of the Bernoulli Society, the satellite meeting...... was organized around the theme “Dynamic Statistical Models” as a part of the Program of Excellence at the University of Copenhagen on “Statistical methods for complex and high dimensional models” (http://statistics.ku.dk/). The Excellence Program in Statistics was a research project to develop and investigate...
Dynamic statistical information theory
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2006-01-01
In recent years we extended Shannon static statistical information theory to dynamic processes and established a Shannon dynamic statistical information theory, whose core is the evolution law of dynamic entropy and dynamic information. We also proposed a corresponding Boltzmman dynamic statistical information theory. Based on the fact that the state variable evolution equation of respective dynamic systems, i.e. Fokker-Planck equation and Liouville diffusion equation can be regarded as their information symbol evolution equation, we derived the nonlinear evolution equations of Shannon dynamic entropy density and dynamic information density and the nonlinear evolution equations of Boltzmann dynamic entropy density and dynamic information density, that describe respectively the evolution law of dynamic entropy and dynamic information. The evolution equations of these two kinds of dynamic entropies and dynamic informations show in unison that the time rate of change of dynamic entropy densities is caused by their drift, diffusion and production in state variable space inside the systems and coordinate space in the transmission processes; and that the time rate of change of dynamic information densities originates from their drift, diffusion and dissipation in state variable space inside the systems and coordinate space in the transmission processes. Entropy and information have been combined with the state and its law of motion of the systems. Furthermore we presented the formulas of two kinds of entropy production rates and information dissipation rates, the expressions of two kinds of drift information flows and diffusion information flows. We proved that two kinds of information dissipation rates (or the decrease rates of the total information) were equal to their corresponding entropy production rates (or the increase rates of the total entropy) in the same dynamic system. We obtained the formulas of two kinds of dynamic mutual informations and dynamic channel
Record Statistics and Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sibani, Paolo; Jensen, Henrik J.
2009-01-01
with independent random increments. The term record dynamics covers the rather new idea that records may, in special situations, have measurable dynamical consequences. The approach applies to the aging dynamics of glasses and other systems with multiple metastable states. The basic idea is that record sizes...... fluctuations of e. g. the energy are able to push the system past some sort of ‘edge of stability’, inducing irreversible configurational changes, whose statistics then closely follows the statistics of record fluctuations....
Product development projects dynamics and emergent complexity
Schlick, Christopher
2016-01-01
This book primarily explores two topics: the representation of simultaneous, cooperative work processes in product development projects with the help of statistical models, and the assessment of their emergent complexity using a metric from theoretical physics (Effective Measure Complexity, EMC). It is intended to promote more effective management of development projects by shifting the focus from the structural complexity of the product being developed to the dynamic complexity of the development processes involved. The book is divided into four main parts, the first of which provides an introduction to vector autoregression models, periodic vector autoregression models and linear dynamical systems for modeling cooperative work in product development projects. The second part presents theoretical approaches for assessing complexity in the product development environment, while the third highlights and explains closed-form solutions for the complexity metric EMC for vector autoregression models and linear dyn...
A Multi-Class, Interdisciplinary Project Using Elementary Statistics
Reese, Margaret
2012-01-01
This article describes a multi-class project that employs statistical computing and writing in a statistics class. Three courses, General Ecology, Meteorology, and Introductory Statistics, cooperated on a project for the EPA's Student Design Competition. The continuing investigation has also spawned several undergraduate research projects in…
Statistics from dynamics in curved spacetime
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parker, L.; Wang, Y.
1989-01-01
We consider quantum fields of spin 0, 1/2, 1, 3/2, and 2 with a nonzero mass in curved spacetime. We show that the dynamical Bogolubov transformations associated with gravitationally induced particle creation imply the connection between spin and statistics: By embedding two flat regions in a curved spacetime, we find that only when one imposes Bose-Einstein statistics for an integer-spin field and Fermi-Dirac statistics for a half-integer-spin field in the first flat region is the same type of statistics propagated from the first to the second flat region. This derivation of the flat-spacetime spin-statistics theorem makes use of curved-spacetime dynamics and does not reduce to any proof given in flat spacetime. We also show in the same manner that parastatistics, up to the fourth order, are consistent with the dynamical evolution of curved spacetime
Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando
2013-04-01
Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at
Statistical methods in nonlinear dynamics
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems leads to exponential divergence of trajectories that are initially arbitrarily close, and hence to unpredictability. Statistical methods have been found to be helpful in extracting useful information about such systems. In this paper, we review briefly some statistical ...
Functional integral approach to classical statistical dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jensen, R.V.
1980-04-01
A functional integral method is developed for the statistical solution of nonlinear stochastic differential equations which arise in classical dynamics. The functional integral approach provides a very natural and elegant derivation of the statistical dynamical equations that have been derived using the operator formalism of Martin, Siggia, and Rose
Projection operator techniques in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grabert, H.
1982-01-01
This book is an introduction to the application of the projection operator technique to the statistical mechanics of irreversible processes. After a general introduction to the projection operator technique and statistical thermodynamics the Fokker-Planck and the master equation approach are described together with the response theory. Then, as applications the damped harmonic oscillator, simple fluids, and the spin relaxation are considered. (HSI)
Statistical and dynamical remastering of classic exoplanet systems
Nelson, Benjamin Earl
The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. In this dissertation, I will review our efforts to improve the statistical analyses of radial velocity (RV) data and their applications to some renown, dynamically complex exoplanet system. In the first project (Chapters 2 and 4), we develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) algorithm to tackle the aforementioned difficult aspects of data analysis. We test the robustness of the algorithm in regards to the number of modeled planets (model dimensionality) and increasing dynamical strength. We apply RUN DMC to a couple classic multi-planet systems and one highly debated system from radial velocity surveys. In the second project (Chapter 5), we analyze RV data of 55 Cancri, a wide binary system known to harbor five planetary orbiting the primary. We find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet to enter the stellar photosphere through its periastron passage. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50+/-6 10 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. In the third project (Chapters 3, 4, 6), we analyze RV data of Gliese 876, a four planet system with three participating in a multi-body resonance, i.e. a Laplace resonance. From a combined observational and statistical analysis computing Bayes factors, we find a four-planet model is favored over one with three-planets. Conditioned on this preferred model, we meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital
On evolutionary ray-projection dynamics
Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Roorda, Berend
2011-01-01
We introduce the ray-projection dynamics in evolutionary game theory by employing a ray projection of the relative fitness (vector) function, i.e., a projection unto the unit simplex along a ray through the origin. Ray-projection dynamics are weakly compatible in the terminology of Friedman
A Statistical Project Control Tool for Engineering Managers
Bauch, Garland T.
2001-01-01
This slide presentation reviews the use of a Statistical Project Control Tool (SPCT) for managing engineering projects. A literature review pointed to a definition of project success, (i.e., A project is successful when the cost, schedule, technical performance, and quality satisfy the customer.) The literature review also pointed to project success factors, and traditional project control tools, and performance measures that are detailed in the report. The essential problem is that with resources becoming more limited, and an increasing number or projects, project failure is increasing, there is a limitation of existing methods and systematic methods are required. The objective of the work is to provide a new statistical project control tool for project managers. Graphs using the SPCT method plotting results of 3 successful projects and 3 failed projects are reviewed, with success and failure being defined by the owner.
Zeno dynamics in quantum statistical mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmidt, Andreas U
2003-01-01
We study the quantum Zeno effect in quantum statistical mechanics within the operator algebraic framework. We formulate a condition for the appearance of the effect in W*-dynamical systems, in terms of the short-time behaviour of the dynamics. Examples of quantum spin systems show that this condition can be effectively applied to quantum statistical mechanical models. Furthermore, we derive an explicit form of the Zeno generator, and use it to construct Gibbs equilibrium states for the Zeno dynamics. As a concrete example, we consider the X-Y model, for which we show that a frequent measurement at a microscopic level, e.g. a single lattice site, can produce a macroscopic effect in changing the global equilibrium
The Impact of Student-Directed Projects in Introductory Statistics
Spence, Dianna J.; Bailey, Brad; Sharp, Julia L.
2017-01-01
A multi-year study investigated the impact of incorporating student-directed discovery projects into introductory statistics courses. Pilot instructors at institutions across the United States taught statistics implementing student-directed projects with the help of a common set of instructional materials designed to facilitate such projects.…
Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.
Wood, Simon N
2010-08-26
Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.
Features of statistical dynamics in a finite system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yan, Shiwei; Sakata, Fumihiko; Zhuo Yizhong
2002-01-01
We study features of statistical dynamics in a finite Hamilton system composed of a relevant one degree of freedom coupled to an irrelevant multidegree of freedom system through a weak interaction. Special attention is paid on how the statistical dynamics changes depending on the number of degrees of freedom in the irrelevant system. It is found that the macrolevel statistical aspects are strongly related to an appearance of the microlevel chaotic motion, and a dissipation of the relevant motion is realized passing through three distinct stages: dephasing, statistical relaxation, and equilibrium regimes. It is clarified that the dynamical description and the conventional transport approach provide us with almost the same macrolevel and microlevel mechanisms only for the system with a very large number of irrelevant degrees of freedom. It is also shown that the statistical relaxation in the finite system is an anomalous diffusion and the fluctuation effects have a finite correlation time
Statistical analysis of dynamic parameters of the core
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ionov, V.S.
2007-01-01
The transients of various types were investigated for the cores of zero power critical facilities in RRC KI and NPP. Dynamic parameters of neutron transients were explored by tool statistical analysis. Its have sufficient duration, few channels for currents of chambers and reactivity and also some channels for technological parameters. On these values the inverse period. reactivity, lifetime of neutrons, reactivity coefficients and some effects of a reactivity are determinate, and on the values were restored values of measured dynamic parameters as result of the analysis. The mathematical means of statistical analysis were used: approximation(A), filtration (F), rejection (R), estimation of parameters of descriptive statistic (DSP), correlation performances (kk), regression analysis(KP), the prognosis (P), statistician criteria (SC). The calculation procedures were realized by computer language MATLAB. The reasons of methodical and statistical errors are submitted: inadequacy of model operation, precision neutron-physical parameters, features of registered processes, used mathematical model in reactivity meters, technique of processing for registered data etc. Examples of results of statistical analysis. Problems of validity of the methods used for definition and certification of values of statistical parameters and dynamic characteristics are considered (Authors)
The GenABEL Project for statistical genomics.
Karssen, Lennart C; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Aulchenko, Yurii S
2016-01-01
Development of free/libre open source software is usually done by a community of people with an interest in the tool. For scientific software, however, this is less often the case. Most scientific software is written by only a few authors, often a student working on a thesis. Once the paper describing the tool has been published, the tool is no longer developed further and is left to its own device. Here we describe the broad, multidisciplinary community we formed around a set of tools for statistical genomics. The GenABEL project for statistical omics actively promotes open interdisciplinary development of statistical methodology and its implementation in efficient and user-friendly software under an open source licence. The software tools developed withing the project collectively make up the GenABEL suite, which currently consists of eleven tools. The open framework of the project actively encourages involvement of the community in all stages, from formulation of methodological ideas to application of software to specific data sets. A web forum is used to channel user questions and discussions, further promoting the use of the GenABEL suite. Developer discussions take place on a dedicated mailing list, and development is further supported by robust development practices including use of public version control, code review and continuous integration. Use of this open science model attracts contributions from users and developers outside the "core team", facilitating agile statistical omics methodology development and fast dissemination.
Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning
Melchiors, Philipp
2015-01-01
This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.
Environmental radiations and childhood dynamic statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sakka, Masatoshi
1981-01-01
In Fukushima prefecture the first nuclear power plant attained criticality in 1971. Since then 6 reactors have been in operation. Increasing concern is the possible adverse effects due to ionizing radiations released from nuclear reactors. As the radiation level around the nuclear power plants is usually low, induced effects are necessarily delayed ones which require tens of years to appear. Among other tissues, embryos and foetuses are most radiosensitive and induced effects result in the change of childhood dynamic statistics. In this report dynamic statistics including stillbirth, perinatal death, neonatal death, infant death, 3rd year examinations were surveyed in 18 health centers in the prefecture from 1961 to 1979. Environmental radiation levels in each district (health centers) were compared and were arranged in order, 1, 2, ... etc. Dynamic statistics were also compared for each district and were arranged in order. Order correlation coefficients were calculated and a linearity between radiation level and health status was tested. No significant values were obtained ranging from 0.66 to -0.43 of correlation coefficients. Still birth decreased 4.4%/y since 1963 and neonatal death decreased 6.7%/y and infant death also decreased 8.7%/y since 1957 on an average. These decreases were negatively correlated with the proliferation of water supply service, sewage service and increase of physicians in 18 districts including 2 which are under continuous observation of environmental radiations released from nuclear power plants. Childhood dynamic statistics have been turning better in the last 10 years in prefecture with the difference of 47 mR/y (lowest values of 56 mR/y on an average in 3 prefectures and highest of 103 mR/y in 4 ones). Environmental radiation may initiate adverse effects on prenatal lives but the hygienic improvement in recent years must extinguish the promotion of the adverse effects. This may be a plausible explanation. (author)
Using R-Project for Free Statistical Analysis in Extension Research
Mangiafico, Salvatore S.
2013-01-01
One option for Extension professionals wishing to use free statistical software is to use online calculators, which are useful for common, simple analyses. A second option is to use a free computing environment capable of performing statistical analyses, like R-project. R-project is free, cross-platform, powerful, and respected, but may be…
Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control
Vanhoucke, Mario
2013-01-01
The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.
Nonequilibrium statistical averages and thermo field dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marinaro, A.; Scarpetta, Q.
1984-01-01
An extension of thermo field dynamics is proposed, which permits the computation of nonequilibrium statistical averages. The Brownian motion of a quantum oscillator is treated as an example. In conclusion it is pointed out that the procedure proposed to computation of time-dependent statistical average gives the correct two-point Green function for the damped oscillator. A simple extension can be used to compute two-point Green functions of free particles
Effective control of complex turbulent dynamical systems through statistical functionals.
Majda, Andrew J; Qi, Di
2017-05-30
Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among complex systems in science and engineering, including climate, material, and neural science. Control of these complex systems is a grand challenge, for example, in mitigating the effects of climate change or safe design of technology with fully developed shear turbulence. Control of flows in the transition to turbulence, where there is a small dimension of instabilities about a basic mean state, is an important and successful discipline. In complex turbulent dynamical systems, it is impossible to track and control the large dimension of instabilities, which strongly interact and exchange energy, and new control strategies are needed. The goal of this paper is to propose an effective statistical control strategy for complex turbulent dynamical systems based on a recent statistical energy principle and statistical linear response theory. We illustrate the potential practical efficiency and verify this effective statistical control strategy on the 40D Lorenz 1996 model in forcing regimes with various types of fully turbulent dynamics with nearly one-half of the phase space unstable.
Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.
Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.
2005-06-01
Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb
Orr, Lindsay; Hernández de la Peña, Lisandro; Roy, Pierre-Nicholas
2017-06-07
A derivation of quantum statistical mechanics based on the concept of a Feynman path centroid is presented for the case of generalized density operators using the projected density operator formalism of Blinov and Roy [J. Chem. Phys. 115, 7822-7831 (2001)]. The resulting centroid densities, centroid symbols, and centroid correlation functions are formulated and analyzed in the context of the canonical equilibrium picture of Jang and Voth [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 2357-2370 (1999)]. The case where the density operator projects onto a particular energy eigenstate of the system is discussed, and it is shown that one can extract microcanonical dynamical information from double Kubo transformed correlation functions. It is also shown that the proposed projection operator approach can be used to formally connect the centroid and Wigner phase-space distributions in the zero reciprocal temperature β limit. A Centroid Molecular Dynamics (CMD) approximation to the state-projected exact quantum dynamics is proposed and proven to be exact in the harmonic limit. The state projected CMD method is also tested numerically for a quartic oscillator and a double-well potential and found to be more accurate than canonical CMD. In the case of a ground state projection, this method can resolve tunnelling splittings of the double well problem in the higher barrier regime where canonical CMD fails. Finally, the state-projected CMD framework is cast in a path integral form.
Orr, Lindsay; Hernández de la Peña, Lisandro; Roy, Pierre-Nicholas
2017-06-01
A derivation of quantum statistical mechanics based on the concept of a Feynman path centroid is presented for the case of generalized density operators using the projected density operator formalism of Blinov and Roy [J. Chem. Phys. 115, 7822-7831 (2001)]. The resulting centroid densities, centroid symbols, and centroid correlation functions are formulated and analyzed in the context of the canonical equilibrium picture of Jang and Voth [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 2357-2370 (1999)]. The case where the density operator projects onto a particular energy eigenstate of the system is discussed, and it is shown that one can extract microcanonical dynamical information from double Kubo transformed correlation functions. It is also shown that the proposed projection operator approach can be used to formally connect the centroid and Wigner phase-space distributions in the zero reciprocal temperature β limit. A Centroid Molecular Dynamics (CMD) approximation to the state-projected exact quantum dynamics is proposed and proven to be exact in the harmonic limit. The state projected CMD method is also tested numerically for a quartic oscillator and a double-well potential and found to be more accurate than canonical CMD. In the case of a ground state projection, this method can resolve tunnelling splittings of the double well problem in the higher barrier regime where canonical CMD fails. Finally, the state-projected CMD framework is cast in a path integral form.
Statistical Process Control. A Summary. FEU/PICKUP Project Report.
Owen, M.; Clark, I.
A project was conducted to develop a curriculum and training materials to be used in training industrial operatives in statistical process control (SPC) techniques. During the first phase of the project, questionnaires were sent to 685 companies (215 of which responded) to determine where SPC was being used, what type of SPC firms needed, and how…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khrennikov, A.
2005-01-01
We constructed the representation of contextual probabilistic dynamics in the complex Hilbert space. Thus dynamics of the wave function can be considered as Hilbert space projection of realistic dynamics in a pre space. The basic condition for representing the pre space-dynamics is the law of statistical conservation of energy-conservation of probabilities. The construction of the dynamical representation is an important step in the development of contextual statistical viewpoint of quantum processes. But the contextual statistical model is essentially more general than the quantum one. Therefore in general the Hilbert space projection of the pre space dynamics can be nonlinear and even irreversible (but it is always unitary). There were found conditions of linearity and reversibility of the Hilbert space dynamical projection. We also found conditions for the conventional Schrodinger dynamics (including time-dependent Hamiltonians). We remark that in general even the Schrodinger dynamics is based just on the statistical conservation of energy; for individual systems the law of conservation of energy can be violated (at least in our theoretical model)
Boltzmann and Einstein: Statistics and dynamics –An unsolved ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The struggle of Boltzmann with the proper description of the behavior of classical macroscopic bodies in equilibrium in terms of the properties of the particles out of which they consist will be sketched. He used both a dynamical and a statistical method. However, Einstein strongly disagreed with Boltzmann's statistical method ...
Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui
2012-01-01
Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics
Quantum versus classical statistical dynamics of an ultracold Bose gas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berges, Juergen; Gasenzer, Thomas
2007-01-01
We investigate the conditions under which quantum fluctuations are relevant for the quantitative interpretation of experiments with ultracold Bose gases. This requires to go beyond the description in terms of the Gross-Pitaevskii and Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov mean-field theories, which can be obtained as classical (statistical) field-theory approximations of the quantum many-body problem. We employ functional-integral techniques based on the two-particle irreducible (2PI) effective action. The role of quantum fluctuations is studied within the nonperturbative 2PI 1/N expansion to next-to-leading order. At this accuracy level memory integrals enter the dynamic equations, which differ for quantum and classical statistical descriptions. This can be used to obtain a classicality condition for the many-body dynamics. We exemplify this condition by studying the nonequilibrium evolution of a one-dimensional Bose gas of sodium atoms, and discuss some distinctive properties of quantum versus classical statistical dynamics
Consistent dynamical and statistical description of fission and comparison
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shunuan, Wang [Chinese Nuclear Data Center, Beijing, BJ (China)
1996-06-01
The research survey of consistent dynamical and statistical description of fission is briefly introduced. The channel theory of fission with diffusive dynamics based on Bohr channel theory of fission and Fokker-Planck equation and Kramers-modified Bohr-Wheeler expression according to Strutinsky method given by P.Frobrich et al. are compared and analyzed. (2 figs.).
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hertig, Elke; Seubert, Stefanie; Jacobeit, Jucundus [Augsburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography; Paxian, Andreas; Vogt, Gernot; Paeth, Heiko [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography and Geology
2012-02-15
Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area have been defined by different percentile-based indices of extreme precipitation for autumn and winter: the number of events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, percentage, total amount, and mean daily intensity of precipitation from these events. Results from statistical downscaling applying canonical correlation analysis as well as from dynamical downscaling using the regional climate model REMO are mapped for the 1961-1990 baseline period as well as for the magnitude of change for the future time slice 2021-2050 in relation to the former period. Direct output of the coupled global circulation model ECHAM5 is used as an additional source of information. A qualitative comparison of the two different downscaling techniques indicates that under the present climate both the dynamical and the statistical techniques have skill to reproduce extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area. A good representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events arises from the statistical downscaling approach, whereas the intensity of such events is adequately modelled by the dynamical downscaling. Concerning the change of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area until the mid-21{sup st} century, it is projected that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will decrease in most parts of the Mediterranean area in autumn and winter. The change of the mean intensity of such events shows a rather heterogeneous pattern with intensity increases in winter most likely at topographical elevations exposed to the West, where the uplift of humid air profits by the increase of atmospheric moisture under climate change conditions. For the precipitation total from events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, widespread decreases are indicated in autumn, whereas in winter increases occur over the western part of the Iberian Peninsula and southern France, and reductions over
Statistical properties of chaotic dynamical systems which exhibit strange attractors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jensen, R.V.; Oberman, C.R.
1981-07-01
A path integral method is developed for the calculation of the statistical properties of turbulent dynamical systems. The method is applicable to conservative systems which exhibit a transition to stochasticity as well as dissipative systems which exhibit strange attractors. A specific dissipative mapping is considered in detail which models the dynamics of a Brownian particle in a wave field with a broad frequency spectrum. Results are presented for the low order statistical moments for three turbulent regimes which exhibit strange attractors corresponding to strong, intermediate, and weak collisional damping
SDI: Statistical dynamic interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blann, M.; Mustafa, M.G.; Peilert, G.; Stoecker, H.; Greiner, W.
1991-01-01
We focus on the combined statistical and dynamical aspects of heavy ion induced reactions. The overall picture is illustrated by considering the reaction 36 Ar + 238 U at a projectile energy of 35 MeV/nucleon. We illustrate the time dependent bound excitation energy due to the fusion/relaxation dynamics as calculated with the Boltzmann master equation. An estimate of the mass, charge and excitation of an equilibrated nucleus surviving the fast (dynamic) fusion-relaxation process is used as input into an evaporation calculation which includes 20 heavy fragment exit channels. The distribution of excitations between residue and clusters is explicitly calculated, as is the further deexcitation of clusters to bound nuclei. These results are compared with the exclusive cluster multiplicity measurements of Kim et al., and are found to give excellent agreement. We consider also an equilibrated residue system at 25% lower initial excitation, which gives an unsatisfactory exclusive multiplicity distribution. This illustrates that exclusive fragment multiplicity may provide a thermometer for system excitation. This analysis of data involves successive binary decay with no compressional effects nor phase transitions. Several examples of primary versus final (stable) cluster decay probabilities for an A = 100 nucleus at excitations of 100 to 800 MeV are presented. From these results a large change in multifragmentation patterns may be understood as a simple phase space consequence, invoking neither phase transitions, nor equation of state information. These results are used to illustrate physical quantities which are ambiguous to deduce from experimental fragment measurements. 14 refs., 4 figs
Learning predictive statistics from temporal sequences: Dynamics and strategies.
Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe
2017-10-01
Human behavior is guided by our expectations about the future. Often, we make predictions by monitoring how event sequences unfold, even though such sequences may appear incomprehensible. Event structures in the natural environment typically vary in complexity, from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. How do we learn these structures? Here we investigate the dynamics of structure learning by tracking human responses to temporal sequences that change in structure unbeknownst to the participants. Participants were asked to predict the upcoming item following a probabilistic sequence of symbols. Using a Markov process, we created a family of sequences, from simple frequency statistics (e.g., some symbols are more probable than others) to context-based statistics (e.g., symbol probability is contingent on preceding symbols). We demonstrate the dynamics with which individuals adapt to changes in the environment's statistics-that is, they extract the behaviorally relevant structures to make predictions about upcoming events. Further, we show that this structure learning relates to individual decision strategy; faster learning of complex structures relates to selection of the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) rather than matching of the exact sequence statistics. Our findings provide evidence for alternate routes to learning of behaviorally relevant statistics that facilitate our ability to predict future events in variable environments.
Multivariate volume visualization through dynamic projections
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Shusen [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Wang, Bei [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Thiagarajan, Jayaraman J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bremer, Peer -Timo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
2014-11-01
We propose a multivariate volume visualization framework that tightly couples dynamic projections with a high-dimensional transfer function design for interactive volume visualization. We assume that the complex, high-dimensional data in the attribute space can be well-represented through a collection of low-dimensional linear subspaces, and embed the data points in a variety of 2D views created as projections onto these subspaces. Through dynamic projections, we present animated transitions between different views to help the user navigate and explore the attribute space for effective transfer function design. Our framework not only provides a more intuitive understanding of the attribute space but also allows the design of the transfer function under multiple dynamic views, which is more flexible than being restricted to a single static view of the data. For large volumetric datasets, we maintain interactivity during the transfer function design via intelligent sampling and scalable clustering. As a result, using examples in combustion and climate simulations, we demonstrate how our framework can be used to visualize interesting structures in the volumetric space.
Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J
2013-08-20
A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra.
Statistical projection effects in a hydrodynamic pilot-wave system
Sáenz, Pedro J.; Cristea-Platon, Tudor; Bush, John W. M.
2018-03-01
Millimetric liquid droplets can walk across the surface of a vibrating fluid bath, self-propelled through a resonant interaction with their own guiding or `pilot' wave fields. These walking droplets, or `walkers', exhibit several features previously thought to be peculiar to the microscopic, quantum realm. In particular, walkers confined to circular corrals manifest a wave-like statistical behaviour reminiscent of that of electrons in quantum corrals. Here we demonstrate that localized topological inhomogeneities in an elliptical corral may lead to resonant projection effects in the walker's statistics similar to those reported in quantum corrals. Specifically, we show that a submerged circular well may drive the walker to excite specific eigenmodes in the bath that result in drastic changes in the particle's statistical behaviour. The well tends to attract the walker, leading to a local peak in the walker's position histogram. By placing the well at one of the foci, a mode with maxima near the foci is preferentially excited, leading to a projection effect in the walker's position histogram towards the empty focus, an effect strongly reminiscent of the quantum mirage. Finally, we demonstrate that the mean pilot-wave field has the same form as the histogram describing the walker's statistics.
Statistics and Dynamics in the Large-scale Structure of the Universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsubara, Takahiko
2006-01-01
In cosmology, observations and theories are related to each other by statistics in most cases. Especially, statistical methods play central roles in analyzing fluctuations in the universe, which are seeds of the present structure of the universe. The confrontation of the statistics and dynamics is one of the key methods to unveil the structure and evolution of the universe. I will review some of the major statistical methods in cosmology, in connection with linear and nonlinear dynamics of the large-scale structure of the universe. The present status of analyses of the observational data such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the future prospects to constrain the nature of exotic components of the universe such as the dark energy will be presented
A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jenny Leonard
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.
Ossai, Peter Agbadobi Uloku
2016-01-01
This study examined the relationship between students' scores on Research Methods and statistics, and undergraduate project at the final year. The purpose was to find out whether students matched knowledge of research with project-writing skill. The study adopted an expost facto correlational design. Scores on Research Methods and Statistics for…
Benchmarks and statistics of entanglement dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tiersch, Markus
2009-01-01
In the present thesis we investigate how the quantum entanglement of multicomponent systems evolves under realistic conditions. More specifically, we focus on open quantum systems coupled to the (uncontrolled) degrees of freedom of an environment. We identify key quantities that describe the entanglement dynamics, and provide efficient tools for its calculation. For quantum systems of high dimension, entanglement dynamics can be characterized with high precision. In the first part of this work, we derive evolution equations for entanglement. These formulas determine the entanglement after a given time in terms of a product of two distinct quantities: the initial amount of entanglement and a factor that merely contains the parameters that characterize the dynamics. The latter is given by the entanglement evolution of an initially maximally entangled state. A maximally entangled state thus benchmarks the dynamics, and hence allows for the immediate calculation or - under more general conditions - estimation of the change in entanglement. Thereafter, a statistical analysis supports that the derived (in-)equalities describe the entanglement dynamics of the majority of weakly mixed and thus experimentally highly relevant states with high precision. The second part of this work approaches entanglement dynamics from a topological perspective. This allows for a quantitative description with a minimum amount of assumptions about Hilbert space (sub-)structure and environment coupling. In particular, we investigate the limit of increasing system size and density of states, i.e. the macroscopic limit. In this limit, a universal behaviour of entanglement emerges following a ''reference trajectory'', similar to the central role of the entanglement dynamics of a maximally entangled state found in the first part of the present work. (orig.)
Benchmarks and statistics of entanglement dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tiersch, Markus
2009-09-04
In the present thesis we investigate how the quantum entanglement of multicomponent systems evolves under realistic conditions. More specifically, we focus on open quantum systems coupled to the (uncontrolled) degrees of freedom of an environment. We identify key quantities that describe the entanglement dynamics, and provide efficient tools for its calculation. For quantum systems of high dimension, entanglement dynamics can be characterized with high precision. In the first part of this work, we derive evolution equations for entanglement. These formulas determine the entanglement after a given time in terms of a product of two distinct quantities: the initial amount of entanglement and a factor that merely contains the parameters that characterize the dynamics. The latter is given by the entanglement evolution of an initially maximally entangled state. A maximally entangled state thus benchmarks the dynamics, and hence allows for the immediate calculation or - under more general conditions - estimation of the change in entanglement. Thereafter, a statistical analysis supports that the derived (in-)equalities describe the entanglement dynamics of the majority of weakly mixed and thus experimentally highly relevant states with high precision. The second part of this work approaches entanglement dynamics from a topological perspective. This allows for a quantitative description with a minimum amount of assumptions about Hilbert space (sub-)structure and environment coupling. In particular, we investigate the limit of increasing system size and density of states, i.e. the macroscopic limit. In this limit, a universal behaviour of entanglement emerges following a ''reference trajectory'', similar to the central role of the entanglement dynamics of a maximally entangled state found in the first part of the present work. (orig.)
Correcting a Persistent Manhattan Project Statistical Error
Reed, Cameron
2011-04-01
In his 1987 autobiography, Major-General Kenneth Nichols, who served as the Manhattan Project's ``District Engineer'' under General Leslie Groves, related that when the Clinton Engineer Works at Oak Ridge, TN, was completed it was consuming nearly one-seventh (~ 14%) of the electric power being generated in the United States. This statement has been reiterated in several editions of a Department of Energy publication on the Manhattan Project. This remarkable claim has been checked against power generation and consumption figures available in Manhattan Engineer District documents, Tennessee Valley Authority records, and historical editions of the Statistical Abstract of the United States. The correct figure is closer to 0.9% of national generation. A speculation will be made as to the origin of Nichols' erroneous one-seventh figure.
Statistical estimation of nuclear reactor dynamic parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cummins, J.D.
1962-02-01
This report discusses the study of the noise in nuclear reactors and associated power plant. The report is divided into three distinct parts. In the first part parameters which influence the dynamic behaviour of some reactors will be specified and their effect on dynamic performance described. Methods of estimating dynamic parameters using statistical signals will be described in detail together with descriptions of the usefulness of the results, the accuracy and related topics. Some experiments which have been and which might be performed on nuclear reactors will be described. In the second part of the report a digital computer programme will be described. The computer programme derives the correlation functions and the spectra of signals. The programme will compute the frequency response both gain and phase for physical items of plant for which simultaneous recordings of input and output signal variations have been made. Estimations of the accuracy of the correlation functions and the spectra may be computed using the programme and the amplitude distribution of signals may also b computed. The programme is written in autocode for the Ferranti Mercury computer. In the third part of the report a practical example of the use of the method and the digital programme is presented. In order to eliminate difficulties of interpretation a very simple plant model was chosen i.e. a simple first order lag. Several interesting properties of statistical signals were measured and will be discussed. (author)
Phelps, Amy L.; Dostilio, Lina
2008-01-01
The present study addresses the efficacy of using service-learning methods to meet the GAISE guidelines (http://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/GAISECollege.htm) in a second business statistics course and further explores potential advantages of assigning a service-learning (SL) project as compared to the traditional statistics project assignment.…
Dynamics of EEG functional connectivity during statistical learning.
Tóth, Brigitta; Janacsek, Karolina; Takács, Ádám; Kóbor, Andrea; Zavecz, Zsófia; Nemeth, Dezso
2017-10-01
Statistical learning is a fundamental mechanism of the brain, which extracts and represents regularities of our environment. Statistical learning is crucial in predictive processing, and in the acquisition of perceptual, motor, cognitive, and social skills. Although previous studies have revealed competitive neurocognitive processes underlying statistical learning, the neural communication of the related brain regions (functional connectivity, FC) has not yet been investigated. The present study aimed to fill this gap by investigating FC networks that promote statistical learning in humans. Young adults (N=28) performed a statistical learning task while 128-channels EEG was acquired. The task involved probabilistic sequences, which enabled to measure incidental/implicit learning of conditional probabilities. Phase synchronization in seven frequency bands was used to quantify FC between cortical regions during the first, second, and third periods of the learning task, respectively. Here we show that statistical learning is negatively correlated with FC of the anterior brain regions in slow (theta) and fast (beta) oscillations. These negative correlations increased as the learning progressed. Our findings provide evidence that dynamic antagonist brain networks serve a hallmark of statistical learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Statistical properties of dynamical systems – Simulation and abstract computation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Galatolo, Stefano; Hoyrup, Mathieu; Rojas, Cristóbal
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► A survey on results about computation and computability on the statistical properties of dynamical systems. ► Computability and non-computability results for invariant measures. ► A short proof for the computability of the convergence speed of ergodic averages. ► A kind of “constructive” version of the pointwise ergodic theorem. - Abstract: We survey an area of recent development, relating dynamics to theoretical computer science. We discuss some aspects of the theoretical simulation and computation of the long term behavior of dynamical systems. We will focus on the statistical limiting behavior and invariant measures. We present a general method allowing the algorithmic approximation at any given accuracy of invariant measures. The method can be applied in many interesting cases, as we shall explain. On the other hand, we exhibit some examples where the algorithmic approximation of invariant measures is not possible. We also explain how it is possible to compute the speed of convergence of ergodic averages (when the system is known exactly) and how this entails the computation of arbitrarily good approximations of points of the space having typical statistical behaviour (a sort of constructive version of the pointwise ergodic theorem).
The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations
Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian
2017-06-01
Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.
The effects of dynamics on statistical emission
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Friedman, W.A.
1989-01-01
The dynamical processes which occur during the disassembly of an excited nuclear system influence predictions arising from a statistical treatment of the decay of that system. Changes, during the decay period, in such collective properties as angular momentum, density, and kinetic energy of the emitting source affect both the mass and energy spectra of the emitted fragments. This influence will be examined. The author will explore the influence of nuclear compressibility on the decay process, in order to determine what information can be learned about this property from the products of decay. He will compare the relationship between disparate scenarios of decay: a succession of binary decays, each governed by statistics; and a full microcanonical distribution at a single freeze-out density. The author hopes to learn from the general nature of these two statistical predictions when one or the other might be more realistic, and what signatures resulting from the two models might be used to determine which accounts best for specific experimental results
Molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo calculations in statistical mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wood, W.W.; Erpenbeck, J.J.
1976-01-01
Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics calculations on statistical mechanical systems is reviewed giving some of the more significant recent developments. It is noted that the term molecular dynamics refers to the time-averaging technique for hard-core and square-well interactions and for continuous force-law interactions. Ergodic questions, methodology, quantum mechanical, Lorentz, and one-dimensional, hard-core, and square and triangular-well systems, short-range soft potentials, and other systems are included. 268 references
Dynamic Capabilities and Project Management in Small Software Companies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nørbjerg, Jacob; Nielsen, Peter Axel; Persson, John Stouby
2017-01-01
A small software company depends on its capability to adapt to rapid technological and other changes in its environment—its dynamic capabilities. In this paper, we argue that to evolve and maintain its dynamic capabilities a small software company must pay attention to the interaction between...... dynamic capabilities at different levels of the company — particularly between the project management and the company levels. We present a case study of a small software company and show how successful dynamic capabilities at the company level can affect project management in small software companies...
Dynamical topology and statistical properties of spatiotemporal chaos.
Zhuang, Quntao; Gao, Xun; Ouyang, Qi; Wang, Hongli
2012-12-01
For spatiotemporal chaos described by partial differential equations, there are generally locations where the dynamical variable achieves its local extremum or where the time partial derivative of the variable vanishes instantaneously. To a large extent, the location and movement of these topologically special points determine the qualitative structure of the disordered states. We analyze numerically statistical properties of the topologically special points in one-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos. The probability distribution functions for the number of point, the lifespan, and the distance covered during their lifetime are obtained from numerical simulations. Mathematically, we establish a probabilistic model to describe the dynamics of these topologically special points. In spite of the different definitions in different spatiotemporal chaos, the dynamics of these special points can be described in a uniform approach.
Statistics in Action: The Story of a Successful Service-Learning Project
DeHart, Mary; Ham, Jim
2011-01-01
The purpose of this article is to share the stories of an Introductory Statistics service-learning project in which students from both New Jersey and Michigan design and conduct phone surveys that lead to publication in local newspapers; to discuss the pedagogical benefits and challenges of the project; and to provide information for those who…
Steam Generator Group Project. Progress report on data acquisition/statistical analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doctor, P.G.; Buchanan, J.A.; McIntyre, J.M.; Hof, P.J.; Ercanbrack, S.S.
1984-01-01
A major task of the Steam Generator Group Project (SGGP) is to establish the reliability of the eddy current inservice inspections of PWR steam generator tubing, by comparing the eddy current data to the actual physical condition of the tubes via destructive analyses. This report describes the plans for the computer systems needed to acquire, store and analyze the diverse data to be collected during the project. The real-time acquisition of the baseline eddy current inspection data will be handled using a specially designed data acquisition computer system based on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-11/44. The data will be archived in digital form for use after the project is completed. Data base management and statistical analyses will be done on a DEC VAX-11/780. Color graphics will be heavily used to summarize the data and the results of the analyses. The report describes the data that will be taken during the project and the statistical methods that will be used to analyze the data. 7 figures, 2 tables
Dynamical and statistical aspects of intermediate energy heavy ion collisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knoll, J.
1987-01-01
The lectures presented deal with three different topics relevant for the discussion of nuclear collisions at medium to high energies. The first lecture concerns a subject of general interest, the description of statistical systems and their dynamics by the concept of missing information. If presents an excellent scope to formulate statistical theories in such a way that they carefully keep track of the known (relevant) information while maximizing the ignorance about the irrelevant, unknown information. The last two lectures deal with quite actual questions of intermediate energy heavy-ion collisions. These are the multi-fragmentation dynamics of highly excited nuclear systems, and the so called subthreshold particle production. All three subjects are self-contained, and can be read without the knowledge about the other ones. (orig.)
Dynamic wall demonstration project
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nakatsui, L.; Mayhew, W.
1990-12-01
The dynamic wall concept is a ventilation strategy that can be applied to a single family dwelling. With suitable construction, outside air can be admitted through the exterior walls of the house to the interior space to function as ventilation air. The construction and performance monitoring of a demonstration house built to test the dynamic wall concept in Sherwood Park, Alberta, is described. The project had the objectives of demonstrating and assessing the construction methods; determining the cost-effectiveness of the concept in Alberta; analyzing the operation of the dynamic wall system; and determining how other components and systems in the house interact with the dynamic wall. The exterior wall construction consisted of vinyl siding, spun-bonded polyolefin-backed (SBPO) rigid fiberglass sheathing, 38 mm by 89 mm framing, fiberglass batt insulation and 12.7 mm drywall. The mechanical system was designed to operate in the dynamic (negative pressure) mode, however flexibility was provided to allow operation in the static (balanced pressure) mode to permit monitoring of the walls as if they were in a conventional house. The house was monitored by an extensive computerized monitoring system. Dynamic wall operation was dependent on pressure and temperature differentials between indoor and outdoor as well as wind speed and direction. The degree of heat gain was found to be ca 74% of the indoor-outdoor temperature differential. Temperature of incoming dynamic air was significantly affected by solar radiation and measurement of indoor air pollutants found no significant levels. 4 refs., 34 figs., 11 tabs.
A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.
Seidl, Roman
2015-12-01
The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
1995-01-01
This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for
Dynamical and statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in a Mediterranean area
Pizzigalli, Claudia
2012-03-28
In this paper we present and discuss a comparison between statistical and regional climate modeling techniques for downscaling GCM prediction . The comparison is carried out over the “Capitanata” region, an area of agricultural interest in south-eastern Italy, for current (1961-1990) and future (2071–2100) climate. The statistical model is based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), associated with a data pre-filtering obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), whereas the Regional Climate Model REGCM3 was used for dynamical downscaling. Downscaling techniques were applied to estimate rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and average number of consecutive wet and dry days. Both methods have comparable skills in estimating stations data. They show good results for spring, the most important season for agriculture. Both statistical and dynamical models reproduce the statistical properties of precipitation well, the crucial variable for the growth of crops.
Geometry and topology in hamiltonian dynamics and statistical mechanics
Pettini, Marco
2007-01-01
Explores the foundations of hamiltonian dynamical systems and statistical mechanics, in particular phase transitions, from the point of view of geometry and topology. This book provides an overview of the research in the area. Using geometrical thinking to solve fundamental problems in these areas could be highly productive
Thebaud, Schiller
This report examines four UNESCO pilot projects undertaken in 1972 in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay to study the methods used for national statistical surveys of science and technology. The projects specifically addressed the problems of comparing statistics gathered by different methods in different countries. Surveys carried out in Latin…
Dynamics, stability, and statistics on lattices and networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Livi, Roberto
2014-01-01
These lectures aim at surveying some dynamical models that have been widely explored in the recent scientific literature as case studies of complex dynamical evolution, emerging from the spatio-temporal organization of several coupled dynamical variables. The first message is that a suitable mathematical description of such models needs tools and concepts borrowed from the general theory of dynamical systems and from out-of-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The second message is that the overall scenario is definitely reacher than the standard problems in these fields. For instance, systems exhibiting complex unpredictable evolution do not necessarily exhibit deterministic chaotic behavior (i.e., Lyapunov chaos) as it happens for dynamical models made of a few degrees of freedom. In fact, a very large number of spatially organized dynamical variables may yield unpredictable evolution even in the absence of Lyapunov instability. Such a mechanism may emerge from the combination of spatial extension and nonlinearity. Moreover, spatial extension allows one to introduce naturally disorder, or heterogeneity of the interactions as important ingredients for complex evolution. It is worth to point out that the models discussed in these lectures share such features, despite they have been inspired by quite different physical and biological problems. Along these lectures we describe also some of the technical tools employed for the study of such models, e.g., Lyapunov stability analysis, unpredictability indicators for “stable chaos,” hydrodynamic description of transport in low spatial dimension, spectral decomposition of stochastic dynamics on directed networks, etc
The non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of a simple geophysical fluid dynamics model
Verkley, Wim; Severijns, Camiel
2014-05-01
Lorenz [1] has devised a dynamical system that has proved to be very useful as a benchmark system in geophysical fluid dynamics. The system in its simplest form consists of a periodic array of variables that can be associated with an atmospheric field on a latitude circle. The system is driven by a constant forcing, is damped by linear friction and has a simple advection term that causes the model to behave chaotically if the forcing is large enough. Our aim is to predict the statistics of Lorenz' model on the basis of a given average value of its total energy - obtained from a numerical integration - and the assumption of statistical stationarity. Our method is the principle of maximum entropy [2] which in this case reads: the information entropy of the system's probability density function shall be maximal under the constraints of normalization, a given value of the average total energy and statistical stationarity. Statistical stationarity is incorporated approximately by using `stationarity constraints', i.e., by requiring that the average first and possibly higher-order time-derivatives of the energy are zero in the maximization of entropy. The analysis [3] reveals that, if the first stationarity constraint is used, the resulting probability density function rather accurately reproduces the statistics of the individual variables. If the second stationarity constraint is used as well, the correlations between the variables are also reproduced quite adequately. The method can be generalized straightforwardly and holds the promise of a viable non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of the forced-dissipative systems of geophysical fluid dynamics. [1] E.N. Lorenz, 1996: Predictability - A problem partly solved, in Proc. Seminar on Predictability (ECMWF, Reading, Berkshire, UK), Vol. 1, pp. 1-18. [2] E.T. Jaynes, 2003: Probability Theory - The Logic of Science (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). [3] W.T.M. Verkley and C.A. Severijns, 2014: The maximum entropy
Vortex dynamics and Lagrangian statistics in a model for active turbulence.
James, Martin; Wilczek, Michael
2018-02-14
Cellular suspensions such as dense bacterial flows exhibit a turbulence-like phase under certain conditions. We study this phenomenon of "active turbulence" statistically by using numerical tools. Following Wensink et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109, 14308 (2012)), we model active turbulence by means of a generalized Navier-Stokes equation. Two-point velocity statistics of active turbulence, both in the Eulerian and the Lagrangian frame, is explored. We characterize the scale-dependent features of two-point statistics in this system. Furthermore, we extend this statistical study with measurements of vortex dynamics in this system. Our observations suggest that the large-scale statistics of active turbulence is close to Gaussian with sub-Gaussian tails.
Online Project Management for Dynamic e-Collaboration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lucia RUSU
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Today's collaborative projects demand efficient and productive software application tools for the workplace that will bring remote teams together to get the work done. Dynamic e-collaboration is a necessity for virtual relations and business agreements. It depends on two distinct factors: trust and need. This paper presents a way to manage remote teams using a web application developed with ColMap model of project management in an IT company. The information exposed and shared applications with partners in collaborative projects are based on RBAC. Group collaboration and management software has been proven to successfully manage and coordinate projects.
Number projected statistics and the pairing correlations at high excitation energies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Esebbag, C.; Egido, J.L.
1993-01-01
We analyze the use of particle-number projected statistics (PNPS) as an effective way to include the quantum and statistical fluctuations, associated with the pairing degree of freedom, left out in finite-temperature mean-field theories. As a numerical application the exact-soluble degenerate model is worked out. In particular, we find that the sharp temperature-induced superfluid-normal phase transition, predicted in the mean-field approximations, is washed out in the PNPS. Some approximations as well as the Landau prescription to include statistical fluctuations are also discussed. We find that the Landau prescription provides a reasonable approximation to the PNPS. (orig.)
Statistical dynamics of ultradiffusion in hierarchical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gardner, S.
1987-01-01
In many types of disordered systems which exhibit frustration and competition, an ultrametric topology is found to exist in the space of allowable states. This ultrametric topology of states is associated with a hierarchical relaxation process called ultradiffusion. Ultradiffusion occurs in hierarchical non-linear (HNL) dynamical systems when constraints cause large scale, slow modes of motion to be subordinated to small scale, fast modes. Examples of ultradiffusion are found throughout condensed matter physics and critical phenomena (e.g. the states of spin glasses), in biophysics (e.g. the states of Hopfield networks) and in many other fields including layered computing based upon nonlinear dynamics. The statistical dynamics of ultradiffusion can be treated as a random walk on an ultrametric space. For reversible bifurcating ultrametric spaces the evolution equation governing the probability of a particle being found at site i at time t has a highly degenerate transition matrix. This transition matrix has a fractal geometry similar to the replica form proposed for spin glasses. The authors invert this fractal matrix using a recursive quad-tree (QT) method. Possible applications of hierarchical systems to communications and symbolic computing are discussed briefly
The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics
Pavlos, George
2015-04-01
As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time
STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR CLASSIFYING GALAXY GROUP DYNAMICS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hou, Annie; Parker, Laura C.; Harris, William E.; Wilman, David J.
2009-01-01
The dynamical state of galaxy groups at intermediate redshifts can provide information about the growth of structure in the universe. We examine three goodness-of-fit tests, the Anderson-Darling (A-D), Kolmogorov, and χ 2 tests, in order to determine which statistical tool is best able to distinguish between groups that are relaxed and those that are dynamically complex. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of these three tests and show that the χ 2 test is profoundly unreliable for groups with fewer than 30 members. Power studies of the Kolmogorov and A-D tests are conducted to test their robustness for various sample sizes. We then apply these tests to a sample of the second Canadian Network for Observational Cosmology Redshift Survey (CNOC2) galaxy groups and find that the A-D test is far more reliable and powerful at detecting real departures from an underlying Gaussian distribution than the more commonly used χ 2 and Kolmogorov tests. We use this statistic to classify a sample of the CNOC2 groups and find that 34 of 106 groups are inconsistent with an underlying Gaussian velocity distribution, and thus do not appear relaxed. In addition, we compute velocity dispersion profiles (VDPs) for all groups with more than 20 members and compare the overall features of the Gaussian and non-Gaussian groups, finding that the VDPs of the non-Gaussian groups are distinct from those classified as Gaussian.
Incorporation of quantum statistical features in molecular dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ohnishi, Akira; Randrup, J.
1995-01-01
We formulate a method for incorporating quantum fluctuations into molecular-dynamics simulations of many-body systems, such as those employed for energetic nuclear collision processes. Based on Fermi's Golden Rule, we allow spontaneous transitions to occur between the wave packets which are not energy eigenstates. The ensuing diffusive evolution in the space of the wave packet parameters exhibits appealing physical properties, including relaxation towards quantum-statistical equilibrium. (author)
The GenABEL Project for statistical genomics [version 1; referees: 2 approved
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lennart C. Karssen
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Development of free/libre open source software is usually done by a community of people with an interest in the tool. For scientific software, however, this is less often the case. Most scientific software is written by only a few authors, often a student working on a thesis. Once the paper describing the tool has been published, the tool is no longer developed further and is left to its own device. Here we describe the broad, multidisciplinary community we formed around a set of tools for statistical genomics. The GenABEL project for statistical omics actively promotes open interdisciplinary development of statistical methodology and its implementation in efficient and user-friendly software under an open source licence. The software tools developed withing the project collectively make up the GenABEL suite, which currently consists of eleven tools. The open framework of the project actively encourages involvement of the community in all stages, from formulation of methodological ideas to application of software to specific data sets. A web forum is used to channel user questions and discussions, further promoting the use of the GenABEL suite. Developer discussions take place on a dedicated mailing list, and development is further supported by robust development practices including use of public version control, code review and continuous integration. Use of this open science model attracts contributions from users and developers outside the “core team”, facilitating agile statistical omics methodology development and fast dissemination.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF MANAGEMENT OF "UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES" OF THE PROJECT
Богдан Владимирович ГАЙДАБРУС; Евгений Анатольевич ДРУЖИНИН
2015-01-01
Approaches for project contingency management through risk management and influence of stakeholders. Proposed system dynamic contingency project management model. The model describes the effects of various factors on the phase of project management through contingency.
A Tensor Statistical Model for Quantifying Dynamic Functional Connectivity.
Zhu, Yingying; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kim, Minjeong; Yan, Jin; Wu, Guorong
2017-06-01
Functional connectivity (FC) has been widely investigated in many imaging-based neuroscience and clinical studies. Since functional Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) signal is just an indirect reflection of brain activity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the FC strength only based on signal correlation. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based tensor model to derive high sensitivity and specificity connectome biomarkers at the individual level from resting-state fMRI images. First, we propose a learning-based approach to estimate the intrinsic functional connectivity. In addition to the low level region-to-region signal correlation, latent module-to-module connection is also estimated and used to provide high level heuristics for measuring connectivity strength. Furthermore, sparsity constraint is employed to automatically remove the spurious connections, thus alleviating the issue of searching for optimal threshold. Second, we integrate our learning-based approach with the sliding-window technique to further reveal the dynamics of functional connectivity. Specifically, we stack the functional connectivity matrix within each sliding window and form a 3D tensor where the third dimension denotes for time. Then we obtain dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) for each individual subject by simultaneously estimating the within-sliding-window functional connectivity and characterizing the across-sliding-window temporal dynamics. Third, in order to enhance the robustness of the connectome patterns extracted from dFC, we extend the individual-based 3D tensors to a population-based 4D tensor (with the fourth dimension stands for the training subjects) and learn the statistics of connectome patterns via 4D tensor analysis. Since our 4D tensor model jointly (1) optimizes dFC for each training subject and (2) captures the principle connectome patterns, our statistical model gains more statistical power of representing new subject than current state
A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.
1994-01-01
A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)
SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF MANAGEMENT OF "UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES" OF THE PROJECT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Богдан Владимирович ГАЙДАБРУС
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Approaches for project contingency management through risk management and influence of stakeholders. Proposed system dynamic contingency project management model. The model describes the effects of various factors on the phase of project management through contingency.
Fawcett, Lee
2017-01-01
The CASE project (Case-based Approaches to Statistics Education; see www.mas.ncl.ac.uk/~nlf8/innovation) was established to investigate how the use of real-life, discipline-specific case study material in Statistics service courses could improve student engagement, motivation, and confidence. Ultimately, the project aims to promote deep learning…
Flow Equation Approach to the Statistics of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
Marston, J. B.; Hastings, M. B.
2005-03-01
The probability distribution function of non-linear dynamical systems is governed by a linear framework that resembles quantum many-body theory, in which stochastic forcing and/or averaging over initial conditions play the role of non-zero . Besides the well-known Fokker-Planck approach, there is a related Hopf functional methodootnotetextUriel Frisch, Turbulence: The Legacy of A. N. Kolmogorov (Cambridge University Press, 1995) chapter 9.5.; in both formalisms, zero modes of linear operators describe the stationary non-equilibrium statistics. To access the statistics, we investigate the method of continuous unitary transformationsootnotetextS. D. Glazek and K. G. Wilson, Phys. Rev. D 48, 5863 (1993); Phys. Rev. D 49, 4214 (1994). (also known as the flow equation approachootnotetextF. Wegner, Ann. Phys. 3, 77 (1994).), suitably generalized to the diagonalization of non-Hermitian matrices. Comparison to the more traditional cumulant expansion method is illustrated with low-dimensional attractors. The treatment of high-dimensional dynamical systems is also discussed.
Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata
Yao, Zhenwei
2017-12-01
Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.
Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata.
Yao, Zhenwei
2017-12-01
Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.
The Effect of Project Based Learning on the Statistical Literacy Levels of Student 8th Grade
Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent
2014-01-01
This study examines the effect of project based learning on 8th grade students' statistical literacy levels. A performance test was developed for this aim. Quasi-experimental research model was used in this article. In this context, the statistics were taught with traditional method in the control group and it was taught using project based…
Arantes do Amaral, Joao Alberto
2017-01-01
In this case study we discuss the dynamics that drive a free-of-charge project-based learning extension course. We discuss the lessons learned in the course, "Laboratory of Social Projects." The course aimed to teach project management skills to the participants. It was conducted from August to November of 2015, at Federal University of…
A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics
Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James
2013-04-01
Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.
Application of statistical dynamical turbulence closures to data assimilation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
O'Kane, Terence J; Frederiksen, Jorgen S
2010-01-01
We describe the development of an accurate yet computationally tractable statistical dynamical closure theory for general inhomogeneous turbulent flows, coined the quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation closure (QDIA), and its application to problems in data assimilation. The QDIA provides prognostic equations for evolving mean fields, covariances and higher-order non-Gaussian terms, all of which are also required in the formulation of data assimilation schemes for nonlinear geophysical flows. The QDIA is a generalization of the class of direct interaction approximation theories, initially developed by Kraichnan (1959 J. Fluid Mech. 5 497) for isotropic turbulence, to fully inhomogeneous flows and has been further generalized to allow for both inhomogeneous and non-Gaussian initial conditions and long integrations. A regularization procedure or empirical vertex renormalization that ensures correct inertial range spectra is also described. The aim of this paper is to provide a coherent mathematical description of the QDIA turbulence closure and closure-based data assimilation scheme we have labeled the statistical dynamical Kalman filter. The mathematical formalism presented has been synthesized from recent works of the authors with some additional material and is presented in sufficient detail that the paper is of a pedagogical nature.
Farrell, Brian F.; Ioannou, Petros J.
2017-08-01
This paper describes a study of the self-sustaining process in wall turbulence. The study is based on a second order statistical state dynamics model of Couette flow in which the state variables are the streamwise mean flow (first cumulant) and perturbation covariance (second cumulant). This statistical state dynamics model is closed by either setting the third cumulant to zero or by replacing it with a stochastic parametrization. Statistical state dynamics models with this form are referred to as S3T models. S3T models have been shown to self-sustain turbulence with a mean flow and second order perturbation structure similar to that obtained by direct numerical simulation of the equations of motion. The use of a statistical state dynamics model to study the physical mechanisms underlying turbulence has important advantages over the traditional approach of studying the dynamics of individual realizations of turbulence. One advantage is that the analytical structure of S3T statistical state dynamics models isolates the interaction between the mean flow and the perturbation components of the turbulence. Isolation of the interaction between these components reveals how this interaction underlies both the maintenance of the turbulence variance by transfer of energy from the externally driven flow to the perturbation components as well as the enforcement of the observed statistical mean turbulent state by feedback regulation between the mean and perturbation fields. Another advantage of studying turbulence using statistical state dynamics models of S3T form is that the analytical structure of S3T turbulence can be completely characterized. For example, the perturbation component of turbulence in the S3T system is demonstrably maintained by a parametric perturbation growth mechanism in which fluctuation of the mean flow maintains the perturbation field which in turn maintains the mean flow fluctuations in a synergistic interaction. Furthermore, the equilibrium
Mathematics authentic assessment on statistics learning: the case for student mini projects
Fauziah, D.; Mardiyana; Saputro, D. R. S.
2018-03-01
Mathematics authentic assessment is a form of meaningful measurement of student learning outcomes for the sphere of attitude, skill and knowledge in mathematics. The construction of attitude, skill and knowledge achieved through the fulfilment of tasks which involve active and creative role of the students. One type of authentic assessment is student mini projects, started from planning, data collecting, organizing, processing, analysing and presenting the data. The purpose of this research is to learn the process of using authentic assessments on statistics learning which is conducted by teachers and to discuss specifically the use of mini projects to improving students’ learning in the school of Surakarta. This research is an action research, where the data collected through the results of the assessments rubric of student mini projects. The result of data analysis shows that the average score of rubric of student mini projects result is 82 with 96% classical completeness. This study shows that the application of authentic assessment can improve students’ mathematics learning outcomes. Findings showed that teachers and students participate actively during teaching and learning process, both inside and outside of the school. Student mini projects also provide opportunities to interact with other people in the real context while collecting information and giving presentation to the community. Additionally, students are able to exceed more on the process of statistics learning using authentic assessment.
Exploring Foundation Concepts in Introductory Statistics Using Dynamic Data Points
Ekol, George
2015-01-01
This paper analyses introductory statistics students' verbal and gestural expressions as they interacted with a dynamic sketch (DS) designed using "Sketchpad" software. The DS involved numeric data points built on the number line whose values changed as the points were dragged along the number line. The study is framed on aggregate…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pomogaev, Vladimir; Pomogaeva, Anna; Avramov, Pavel
2011-01-01
Three polycyclic organic molecules in various solvents focused on thermo-dynamical aspects were theoretically investigated using the recently developed statistical quantum mechanical/classical molecular dynamics method for simulating electronic-vibrational spectra. The absorption bands of estradiol...
Statistical Projections for Multi-resolution, Multi-dimensional Visual Data Exploration and Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nguyen, Hoa T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Stone, Daithi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bethel, E. Wes [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
2016-01-01
An ongoing challenge in visual exploration and analysis of large, multi-dimensional datasets is how to present useful, concise information to a user for some specific visualization tasks. Typical approaches to this problem have proposed either reduced-resolution versions of data, or projections of data, or both. These approaches still have some limitations such as consuming high computation or suffering from errors. In this work, we explore the use of a statistical metric as the basis for both projections and reduced-resolution versions of data, with a particular focus on preserving one key trait in data, namely variation. We use two different case studies to explore this idea, one that uses a synthetic dataset, and another that uses a large ensemble collection produced by an atmospheric modeling code to study long-term changes in global precipitation. The primary findings of our work are that in terms of preserving the variation signal inherent in data, that using a statistical measure more faithfully preserves this key characteristic across both multi-dimensional projections and multi-resolution representations than a methodology based upon averaging.
Dynamic Underground Stripping Project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aines, R.; Newmark, R.; McConachie, W.; Udell, K.; Rice, D.; Ramirez, A.; Siegel, W.; Buettner, M.; Daily, W.; Krauter, P.; Folsom, E.; Boegel, A.J.; Bishop, D.; Udell, K.
1992-01-01
LLNL is collaborating with the UC Berkeley College of Engineering to develop and demonstrate a system of thermal remediation and underground imaging techniques for use in rapid cleanup of localized underground spills. Called ''Dynamic Stripping'' to reflect the rapid and controllable nature of the process, it will combine steam injection, direct electrical heating, and tomographic geophysical imaging in a cleanup of the LLNL gasoline spill. In the first 8 months of the project, a Clean Site engineering test was conducted to prove the field application of the techniques before moving the contaminated site in FY 92
Häggström, Ida; Beattie, Bradley J; Schmidtlein, C Ross
2016-06-01
To develop and evaluate a fast and simple tool called dpetstep (Dynamic PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection), for dynamic PET simulations as an alternative to Monte Carlo (MC), useful for educational purposes and evaluation of the effects of the clinical environment, postprocessing choices, etc., on dynamic and parametric images. The tool was developed in matlab using both new and previously reported modules of petstep (PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection). Time activity curves are generated for each voxel of the input parametric image, whereby effects of imaging system blurring, counting noise, scatters, randoms, and attenuation are simulated for each frame. Each frame is then reconstructed into images according to the user specified method, settings, and corrections. Reconstructed images were compared to MC data, and simple Gaussian noised time activity curves (GAUSS). dpetstep was 8000 times faster than MC. Dynamic images from dpetstep had a root mean square error that was within 4% on average of that of MC images, whereas the GAUSS images were within 11%. The average bias in dpetstep and MC images was the same, while GAUSS differed by 3% points. Noise profiles in dpetstep images conformed well to MC images, confirmed visually by scatter plot histograms, and statistically by tumor region of interest histogram comparisons that showed no significant differences (p dynamic PET and parametric images, and demonstrated that it generates both images and subsequent parametric images with very similar noise properties to those of MC images, in a fraction of the time. They believe dpetstep to be very useful for generating fast, simple, and realistic results, however since it uses simple scatter and random models it may not be suitable for studies investigating these phenomena. dpetstep can be downloaded free of cost from https://github.com/CRossSchmidtlein/dPETSTEP.
Statistical deprojection of galaxy pairs
Nottale, Laurent; Chamaraux, Pierre
2018-06-01
Aims: The purpose of the present paper is to provide methods of statistical analysis of the physical properties of galaxy pairs. We perform this study to apply it later to catalogs of isolated pairs of galaxies, especially two new catalogs we recently constructed that contain ≈1000 and ≈13 000 pairs, respectively. We are particularly interested by the dynamics of those pairs, including the determination of their masses. Methods: We could not compute the dynamical parameters directly since the necessary data are incomplete. Indeed, we only have at our disposal one component of the intervelocity between the members, namely along the line of sight, and two components of their interdistance, i.e., the projection on the sky-plane. Moreover, we know only one point of each galaxy orbit. Hence we need statistical methods to find the probability distribution of 3D interdistances and 3D intervelocities from their projections; we designed those methods under the term deprojection. Results: We proceed in two steps to determine and use the deprojection methods. First we derive the probability distributions expected for the various relevant projected quantities, namely intervelocity vz, interdistance rp, their ratio, and the product rp v_z^2, which is involved in mass determination. In a second step, we propose various methods of deprojection of those parameters based on the previous analysis. We start from a histogram of the projected data and we apply inversion formulae to obtain the deprojected distributions; lastly, we test the methods by numerical simulations, which also allow us to determine the uncertainties involved.
Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa
Yu, Yan
North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial
Statistical physics approaches to subnetwork dynamics in biochemical systems
Bravi, B.; Sollich, P.
2017-08-01
We apply a Gaussian variational approximation to model reduction in large biochemical networks of unary and binary reactions. We focus on a small subset of variables (subnetwork) of interest, e.g. because they are accessible experimentally, embedded in a larger network (bulk). The key goal is to write dynamical equations reduced to the subnetwork but still retaining the effects of the bulk. As a result, the subnetwork-reduced dynamics contains a memory term and an extrinsic noise term with non-trivial temporal correlations. We first derive expressions for this memory and noise in the linearized (Gaussian) dynamics and then use a perturbative power expansion to obtain first order nonlinear corrections. For the case of vanishing intrinsic noise, our description is explicitly shown to be equivalent to projection methods up to quadratic terms, but it is applicable also in the presence of stochastic fluctuations in the original dynamics. An example from the epidermal growth factor receptor signalling pathway is provided to probe the increased prediction accuracy and computational efficiency of our method.
Mathematical Representation Ability by Using Project Based Learning on the Topic of Statistics
Widakdo, W. A.
2017-09-01
Seeing the importance of the role of mathematics in everyday life, mastery of the subject areas of mathematics is a must. Representation ability is one of the fundamental ability that used in mathematics to make connection between abstract idea with logical thinking to understanding mathematics. Researcher see the lack of mathematical representation and try to find alternative solution to dolve it by using project based learning. This research use literature study from some books and articles in journals to see the importance of mathematical representation abiliy in mathemtics learning and how project based learning able to increase this mathematical representation ability on the topic of Statistics. The indicators for mathematical representation ability in this research classifies namely visual representation (picture, diagram, graph, or table); symbolize representation (mathematical statement. Mathematical notation, numerical/algebra symbol) and verbal representation (written text). This article explain about why project based learning able to influence student’s mathematical representation by using some theories in cognitive psychology, also showing the example of project based learning that able to use in teaching statistics, one of mathematics topic that very useful to analyze data.
Statistical properties of anti-symmetrized molecular dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ohnishi, A.; Randrup, J.
1993-01-01
We study the statistical equilibrium properties of the recently developed anti-symmetrized molecular dynamics model for heavy-ion reactions. We consider A non-interacting fermions in one dimension, either bound in a common harmonic potential or moving freely within an interval, and perform a Metropolis sampling of the corresponding parameter space. Generally the average excitation and the specific heat, considered as functions of the imposed temperature, behave in a classical manner when the canonical weight is calculated in the mean-field approximation. However, it is possible to obtain results that are much closer to the quantal behavior by modifying the weight to take approximate account of the energy fluctuations within the individual wave packets. (orig.)
Dynamical and statistical aspects in nucleus-nucleus collisions around the Fermi energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tamain, B.; Bocage, F.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R. [Caen Univ., 14 (France). Lab. de Physique Corpusculaire; Assenard, M. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 44 - Nantes (France). Lab. de Physique Subatomique et des Technologies Associees; Auger, G.; Benlliure, J. [Grand Accelerateur National d`Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); Bacri, C.O.; Borderie, B. [Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France). Inst. de Physique Nucleaire; Bisquer, E. [Lyon-1 Univ., 69 - Villeurbanne (France). Inst. de Physique Nucleaire] [and others
1997-12-31
Nucleus-nucleus collisions at low incident energy are mainly governed by statistical dissipative processes, fusion and deep inelastic reactions being the most important ones. Conversely, in the relativistic energy regime, dynamical effects play a dominant role and one should apply a participant-spectator picture in order to understand the data. In between, the intermediate energy region is a transition one in which it is necessary to disentangle dynamics from statistical effects. Moreover, the Fermi energy region corresponds to available energies comparable with nuclear binding energies and one may except to observe phase transition effects. Experiments performed recently with 4{pi} devices have given quite new data and a much better insight into involved mechanisms and hot nuclear matter properties. INDRA data related to reaction mechanisms and multifragmentation are presented. (author) 53 refs.
Dynamical and statistical aspects in nucleus-nucleus collisions around the Fermi energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tamain, B.; Bocage, F.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Bacri, C.O.; Borderie, B.; Bisquer, E.
1997-01-01
Nucleus-nucleus collisions at low incident energy are mainly governed by statistical dissipative processes, fusion and deep inelastic reactions being the most important ones. Conversely, in the relativistic energy regime, dynamical effects play a dominant role and one should apply a participant-spectator picture in order to understand the data. In between, the intermediate energy region is a transition one in which it is necessary to disentangle dynamics from statistical effects. Moreover, the Fermi energy region corresponds to available energies comparable with nuclear binding energies and one may except to observe phase transition effects. Experiments performed recently with 4π devices have given quite new data and a much better insight into involved mechanisms and hot nuclear matter properties. INDRA data related to reaction mechanisms and multifragmentation are presented. (author)
Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning.
van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey Allen; Liu, Yanyun; Lee, Sang-Ki
2015-09-01
Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040-2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Exploring the dynamics of ownership in community-oriented design projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Light, Ann; Hansen, Nicolai Brodersen; Halskov, Kim
2013-01-01
This paper contributes an exploration of ownership as a dynamic process in community-oriented projects. We use case study accounts of two design projects to consider participation in contexts where social structure is relevant to design outcomes. In studying these dynamics, we consider four aspec...... community groups in making internet radio podcasts to share insight. We examine the complexity of the social process involved and trace patterns of change, before concluding with pragmatic and ethical reasons for technology design to pay attention to ownership issues....
Statistical dynamic imaging of RI-labeled tracer from list-mode PET data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanimoto, Michiaki; Kuroda, Yoshihiro; Oshiro, Osamu; Watabe, Hiroshi; Kuroda, Tomohiro
2009-01-01
Positron emission tomography (PET) can be used in physiological analysis to illustrate physiological states by visualizing the accumulation of radioisotope (RI)-labeled tracer in specific organs or tissues. PET obtains spatio-temporal statistics in the form of list-mode data. However, conventional imaging techniques, which sum up list-mode data over a given time period, cannot depict detailed temporal dynamics of the RI-labeled tracer. In this study, a spatio-temporal analysis approach was employed to visualize the temporal flow dynamics of RI-labeled tracer from the obtained list-mode data. Experiments to assess the visualization of simulated RI-labeled tracer dynamics as well as RI-labeled tracer dynamics in a vascular phantom showed that the proposed method successfully depicted detailed temporal flow dynamics that could not be visualized using conventional methods. (author)
Totz, Sonja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Petri, Stefan; Flechsig, Michael; Caesar, Levke; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Coumou, Dim
2018-02-01
We present and validate a set of equations for representing the atmosphere's large-scale general circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These dynamical equations have been implemented in Aeolus 1.0, which is a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) and includes radiative transfer and cloud modules (Coumou et al., 2011; Eliseev et al., 2013). The statistical dynamical approach is computationally efficient and thus enables us to perform climate simulations at multimillennia timescales, which is a prime aim of our model development. Further, this computational efficiency enables us to scan large and high-dimensional parameter space to tune the model parameters, e.g., for sensitivity studies.Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0.We optimize the dynamical core parameter values by tuning all relevant dynamical fields to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1983-2009) forcing the dynamical core with prescribed surface temperature, surface humidity and cumulus cloud fraction. We test the model's performance in reproducing the seasonal cycle and the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a simulated annealing optimization algorithm, which approximates the global minimum of a high-dimensional function.With non-tuned parameter values, the model performs reasonably in terms of its representation of zonal-mean circulation, planetary waves and storm tracks. The simulated annealing optimization improves in particular the model's representation of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm tracks as well as the Hadley circulation.The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower
Kravchuk, Olena; Elliott, Antony; Bhandari, Bhesh
2005-01-01
A simple laboratory experiment, based on the Maillard reaction, served as a project in Introductory Statistics for undergraduates in Food Science and Technology. By using the principles of randomization and replication and reflecting on the sources of variation in the experimental data, students reinforced the statistical concepts and techniques…
Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics
Marchewka, Avi; Granot, Er'el
2015-04-01
The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested.
Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marchewka, Avi; Granot, Er’el
2015-01-01
The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested
Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marchewka, Avi, E-mail: avi.marchewka@gmail.com [Galei Tchelet St 8 Herzliya (Israel); Granot, Er’el [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Ariel University, Ariel (Israel)
2015-04-15
The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested.
A statistical state dynamics approach to wall turbulence.
Farrell, B F; Gayme, D F; Ioannou, P J
2017-03-13
This paper reviews results obtained using statistical state dynamics (SSD) that demonstrate the benefits of adopting this perspective for understanding turbulence in wall-bounded shear flows. The SSD approach used in this work employs a second-order closure that retains only the interaction between the streamwise mean flow and the streamwise mean perturbation covariance. This closure restricts nonlinearity in the SSD to that explicitly retained in the streamwise constant mean flow together with nonlinear interactions between the mean flow and the perturbation covariance. This dynamical restriction, in which explicit perturbation-perturbation nonlinearity is removed from the perturbation equation, results in a simplified dynamics referred to as the restricted nonlinear (RNL) dynamics. RNL systems, in which a finite ensemble of realizations of the perturbation equation share the same mean flow, provide tractable approximations to the SSD, which is equivalent to an infinite ensemble RNL system. This infinite ensemble system, referred to as the stochastic structural stability theory system, introduces new analysis tools for studying turbulence. RNL systems provide computationally efficient means to approximate the SSD and produce self-sustaining turbulence exhibiting qualitative features similar to those observed in direct numerical simulations despite greatly simplified dynamics. The results presented show that RNL turbulence can be supported by as few as a single streamwise varying component interacting with the streamwise constant mean flow and that judicious selection of this truncated support or 'band-limiting' can be used to improve quantitative accuracy of RNL turbulence. These results suggest that the SSD approach provides new analytical and computational tools that allow new insights into wall turbulence.This article is part of the themed issue 'Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number'. © 2017 The Author(s).
Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters
Song, S. G.
2013-12-24
Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.
Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent
2015-07-01
The point of this study is to define the effect of project-based learning approach on 8th Grade secondary-school students' statistical literacy levels for data representation. To achieve this goal, a test which consists of 12 open-ended questions in accordance with the views of experts was developed. Seventy 8th grade secondary-school students, 35 in the experimental group and 35 in the control group, took this test twice, one before the application and one after the application. All the raw scores were turned into linear points by using the Winsteps 3.72 modelling program that makes the Rasch analysis and t-tests, and an ANCOVA analysis was carried out with the linear points. Depending on the findings, it was concluded that the project-based learning approach increases students' level of statistical literacy for data representation. Students' levels of statistical literacy before and after the application were shown through the obtained person-item maps.
A statistical proposal for environmental impact assessment of development projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Plazas C, Julian A; De J Lema T, Alvaro; Leon P, Juan Diego
2009-01-01
Environmental impact assessment of development projects is a fundamental process, which main goal is to avoid that their construction and functioning, lead to serious and negative consequences on the environment. Some of the most important limitations of the models employed to assess environmental impacts, are the subjectivity of its parameters and weights, and the multicolineality among the variables, which represent high quantities of similar information. This work presents a multivariate statistical-based method that tries to diminish such limitations. For this purpose, environmental impact assessment, is valuated through different environmental impact attributes and environmental elements, synthesized in an environmental quality index (ICA in Spanish). ICA can be applied at different levels, such as at a project level, or applied only at a partial level on one or some environmental components.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1994-02-01
The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Technology Development (EM-50) (OTD) as an element of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) in November, 1989. OTD has begun to search out, develop, test and demonstrate technologies that can now or in the future be applied to the enormous remediation problem now facing the DOE and the United States public in general. Technology demonstration projects have been designed to attack a separate problem as defined by DOE. The Heavy Metals Contaminated Soil Project was conceived to test and demonstrate off-the-shelf technologies (dominantly from the mining industry) that can be brought to bear on the problem of radionuclide and heavy metal contamination in soils and sediments. The Resource Recovery Project is tasked with identifying, developing, testing, and evaluating new and innovative technologies for the remediation of metal contaminated surface and groundwater. An innovative twist on this project is the stated goal of recovering the metals, formerly disposed of as a waste, for reuse and resale, thereby transforming them into a usable resource. Finally, the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project was developed to demonstrate and remediate underground spills of hydrocarbons from formations that are (1) too deep for excavation, and/or (2) require in-situ remediation efforts of long duration. This project has already been shown effective in reducing the time for remediation by conventional methods from an estimated 200 years at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to less than one year. The savings in time and dollars from this technology alone can be immeasurable
Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function
Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.
2011-01-01
In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.
Statistical Measures to Quantify Similarity between Molecular Dynamics Simulation Trajectories
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jenny Farmer
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Molecular dynamics simulation is commonly employed to explore protein dynamics. Despite the disparate timescales between functional mechanisms and molecular dynamics (MD trajectories, functional differences are often inferred from differences in conformational ensembles between two proteins in structure-function studies that investigate the effect of mutations. A common measure to quantify differences in dynamics is the root mean square fluctuation (RMSF about the average position of residues defined by C α -atoms. Using six MD trajectories describing three native/mutant pairs of beta-lactamase, we make comparisons with additional measures that include Jensen-Shannon, modifications of Kullback-Leibler divergence, and local p-values from 1-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These additional measures require knowing a probability density function, which we estimate by using a nonparametric maximum entropy method that quantifies rare events well. The same measures are applied to distance fluctuations between C α -atom pairs. Results from several implementations for quantitative comparison of a pair of MD trajectories are made based on fluctuations for on-residue and residue-residue local dynamics. We conclude that there is almost always a statistically significant difference between pairs of 100 ns all-atom simulations on moderate-sized proteins as evident from extraordinarily low p-values.
Signals of dynamical and statistical process from IMF-IMF correlation function
Pagano, E. V.; Acosta, L.; Auditore, L.; Baran, V.; Cap, T.; Cardella, G.; Colonna, M.; De Luca, S.; De Filippo, E.; Dell'Aquila, D.; Francalanza, L.; Gnoffo, B.; Lanzalone, G.; Lombardo, I.; Maiolino, C.; Martorana, N. S.; Norella, S.; Pagano, A.; Papa, M.; Piasecki, E.; Pirrone, S.; Politi, G.; Porto, F.; Quattrocchi, L.; Rizzo, F.; Rosato, E.; Russotto, P.; Siwek-Wilczyńska, K.; Trifiro, A.; Trimarchi, M.; Verde, G.; Vigilante, M.; Wilczyńsky, J.
2017-11-01
In this paper we briefly discuss about a novel application of the IMF-IMF correlation function to the physical case of binary massive projectile-like (PLF) splitting for dynamical and statistical breakup/fission in heavy ion collisions at Fermi energy. Theoretical simulations are also shown for comparisons with the data. These preliminary results have been obtained for the reverse kinematics reaction 124Sn + 64Ni at 35 AMeV that was studied using the forward part of CHIMERA detector. In that reaction a strong competition between a dynamical and a statistical components and its evolution with the charge asymmetry of the binary break up was already shown. In this work we show that the IMF-IMF correlation function can be used to pin down the timescale of the fragments production in binary fission-like phenomena. We also made simulations with the CoMDII model in order to compare to the experimental IMF-IMF correlation function. In future we plan to extend these studies to different reaction mechanisms and nuclear systems and to compare with different theoretical transport simulations.
The Effect on the 8th Grade Students' Attitude towards Statistics of Project Based Learning
Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent
2014-01-01
This study investigates the effect of the project based learning approach on 8th grade students' attitude towards statistics. With this aim, an attitude scale towards statistics was developed. Quasi-experimental research model was used in this study. Following this model in the control group the traditional method was applied to teach statistics…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Häggström, Ida, E-mail: haeggsti@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 and Department of Radiation Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå 90187 (Sweden); Beattie, Bradley J.; Schmidtlein, C. Ross [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 (United States)
2016-06-15
Purpose: To develop and evaluate a fast and simple tool called dPETSTEP (Dynamic PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection), for dynamic PET simulations as an alternative to Monte Carlo (MC), useful for educational purposes and evaluation of the effects of the clinical environment, postprocessing choices, etc., on dynamic and parametric images. Methods: The tool was developed in MATLAB using both new and previously reported modules of PETSTEP (PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection). Time activity curves are generated for each voxel of the input parametric image, whereby effects of imaging system blurring, counting noise, scatters, randoms, and attenuation are simulated for each frame. Each frame is then reconstructed into images according to the user specified method, settings, and corrections. Reconstructed images were compared to MC data, and simple Gaussian noised time activity curves (GAUSS). Results: dPETSTEP was 8000 times faster than MC. Dynamic images from dPETSTEP had a root mean square error that was within 4% on average of that of MC images, whereas the GAUSS images were within 11%. The average bias in dPETSTEP and MC images was the same, while GAUSS differed by 3% points. Noise profiles in dPETSTEP images conformed well to MC images, confirmed visually by scatter plot histograms, and statistically by tumor region of interest histogram comparisons that showed no significant differences (p < 0.01). Compared to GAUSS, dPETSTEP images and noise properties agreed better with MC. Conclusions: The authors have developed a fast and easy one-stop solution for simulations of dynamic PET and parametric images, and demonstrated that it generates both images and subsequent parametric images with very similar noise properties to those of MC images, in a fraction of the time. They believe dPETSTEP to be very useful for generating fast, simple, and realistic results, however since it uses simple scatter and random models it may not be suitable for
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Häggström, Ida; Beattie, Bradley J.; Schmidtlein, C. Ross
2016-01-01
Purpose: To develop and evaluate a fast and simple tool called dPETSTEP (Dynamic PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection), for dynamic PET simulations as an alternative to Monte Carlo (MC), useful for educational purposes and evaluation of the effects of the clinical environment, postprocessing choices, etc., on dynamic and parametric images. Methods: The tool was developed in MATLAB using both new and previously reported modules of PETSTEP (PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection). Time activity curves are generated for each voxel of the input parametric image, whereby effects of imaging system blurring, counting noise, scatters, randoms, and attenuation are simulated for each frame. Each frame is then reconstructed into images according to the user specified method, settings, and corrections. Reconstructed images were compared to MC data, and simple Gaussian noised time activity curves (GAUSS). Results: dPETSTEP was 8000 times faster than MC. Dynamic images from dPETSTEP had a root mean square error that was within 4% on average of that of MC images, whereas the GAUSS images were within 11%. The average bias in dPETSTEP and MC images was the same, while GAUSS differed by 3% points. Noise profiles in dPETSTEP images conformed well to MC images, confirmed visually by scatter plot histograms, and statistically by tumor region of interest histogram comparisons that showed no significant differences (p < 0.01). Compared to GAUSS, dPETSTEP images and noise properties agreed better with MC. Conclusions: The authors have developed a fast and easy one-stop solution for simulations of dynamic PET and parametric images, and demonstrated that it generates both images and subsequent parametric images with very similar noise properties to those of MC images, in a fraction of the time. They believe dPETSTEP to be very useful for generating fast, simple, and realistic results, however since it uses simple scatter and random models it may not be suitable for
Measuring radiation damage dynamics by pulsed ion beam irradiation: 2016 project annual report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kucheyev, Sergei O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2017-01-04
The major goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a novel experimental approach to access the dynamic regime of radiation damage formation in nuclear materials. In particular, the project exploits a pulsed-ion-beam method in order to gain insight into defect interaction dynamics by measuring effective defect interaction time constants and defect diffusion lengths. For Year 3, this project had the following two major milestones: (i) the demonstration of the measurement of thermally activated defect-interaction processes by pulsed ion beam techniques and (ii) the demonstration of alternative characterization techniques to study defect dynamics. As we describe below, both of these milestones have been met.
Koparan, Timur
2016-02-01
In this study, the effect on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teachers is examined. With this aim ahead, achievement test, attitude scale for statistics and interviews were used as data collection tools. The achievement test comprises 8 problems based on statistical data, and the attitude scale comprises 13 Likert-type items. The study was carried out in 2014-2015 academic year fall semester at a university in Turkey. The study, which employed the pre-test-post-test control group design of quasi-experimental research method, was carried out on a group of 80 prospective teachers, 40 in the control group and 40 in the experimental group. Both groups had four-hour classes about descriptive statistics. The classes with the control group were carried out through traditional methods while dynamic statistics software was used in the experimental group. Five prospective teachers from the experimental group were interviewed clinically after the application for a deeper examination of their views about application. Qualitative data gained are presented under various themes. At the end of the study, it was found that there is a significant difference in favour of the experimental group in terms of achievement and attitudes, the prospective teachers have affirmative approach to the use of dynamic software and see it as an effective tool to enrich maths classes. In accordance with the findings of the study, it is suggested that dynamic software, which offers unique opportunities, be used in classes by teachers and students.
Dynamic Underground Stripping Demonstration Project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aines, R.; Newmark, R.; McConachie, W.; Rice, D.; Ramirez, A.; Siegel, W.; Buettner, M.; Daily, W.; Krauter, P.; Folsom, E.; Boegel, A.J.; Bishop, D.; udel, K.
1992-03-01
LLNL is collaborating with the UC Berkeley College of Engineering to develop and demonstrate a system of thermal remediation and underground imaging techniques for use in rapid cleanup of localized underground spills. Called ''Dynamic Stripping'' to reflect the rapid and controllable nature of the process, it will combine steam injection, direct electrical heating, and tomographic geophysical imaging in a cleanup of the LLNL gasoline spill. In the first 8 months of the project, a Clean Site engineering test was conducted to prove the field application of the techniques before moving to the contaminated site in FY 92
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ge Peng
2018-02-01
Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.
Manning, Robert M.
1987-01-01
A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.
Statistical ensembles and molecular dynamics studies of anisotropic solids. II
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ray, J.R.; Rahman, A.
1985-01-01
We have recently discussed how the Parrinello--Rahman theory can be brought into accord with the theory of the elastic and thermodynamic behavior of anisotropic media. This involves the isoenthalpic--isotension ensemble of statistical mechanics. Nose has developed a canonical ensemble form of molecular dynamics. We combine Nose's ideas with the Parrinello--Rahman theory to obtain a canonical form of molecular dynamics appropriate to the study of anisotropic media subjected to arbitrary external stress. We employ this isothermal--isotension ensemble in a study of a fcc→ close-packed structural phase transformation in a Lennard-Jones solid subjected to uniaxial compression. Our interpretation of the Nose theory does not involve a scaling of the time variable. This latter fact leads to simplifications when studying the time dependence of quantities
Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes
Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.
2015-08-01
Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O (√{N }) ] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems—age-size relationships and species extinction time—in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics.
Dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging: II. Task-oriented statistical estimation.
Karakatsanis, Nicolas A; Lodge, Martin A; Zhou, Y; Wahl, Richard L; Rahmim, Arman
2013-10-21
In the context of oncology, dynamic PET imaging coupled with standard graphical linear analysis has been previously employed to enable quantitative estimation of tracer kinetic parameters of physiological interest at the voxel level, thus, enabling quantitative PET parametric imaging. However, dynamic PET acquisition protocols have been confined to the limited axial field-of-view (~15-20 cm) of a single-bed position and have not been translated to the whole-body clinical imaging domain. On the contrary, standardized uptake value (SUV) PET imaging, considered as the routine approach in clinical oncology, commonly involves multi-bed acquisitions, but is performed statically, thus not allowing for dynamic tracking of the tracer distribution. Here, we pursue a transition to dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging, by presenting, within a unified framework, clinically feasible multi-bed dynamic PET acquisition protocols and parametric imaging methods. In a companion study, we presented a novel clinically feasible dynamic (4D) multi-bed PET acquisition protocol as well as the concept of whole-body PET parametric imaging employing Patlak ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate the quantitative parameters of tracer uptake rate Ki and total blood distribution volume V. In the present study, we propose an advanced hybrid linear regression framework, driven by Patlak kinetic voxel correlations, to achieve superior trade-off between contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and mean squared error (MSE) than provided by OLS for the final Ki parametric images, enabling task-based performance optimization. Overall, whether the observer's task is to detect a tumor or quantitatively assess treatment response, the proposed statistical estimation framework can be adapted to satisfy the specific task performance criteria, by adjusting the Patlak correlation-coefficient (WR) reference value. The multi-bed dynamic acquisition protocol, as optimized in the preceding companion study
Dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging: II. Task-oriented statistical estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Karakatsanis, Nicolas A; Lodge, Martin A; Zhou, Y; Wahl, Richard L; Rahmim, Arman
2013-01-01
In the context of oncology, dynamic PET imaging coupled with standard graphical linear analysis has been previously employed to enable quantitative estimation of tracer kinetic parameters of physiological interest at the voxel level, thus, enabling quantitative PET parametric imaging. However, dynamic PET acquisition protocols have been confined to the limited axial field-of-view (∼15–20 cm) of a single-bed position and have not been translated to the whole-body clinical imaging domain. On the contrary, standardized uptake value (SUV) PET imaging, considered as the routine approach in clinical oncology, commonly involves multi-bed acquisitions, but is performed statically, thus not allowing for dynamic tracking of the tracer distribution. Here, we pursue a transition to dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging, by presenting, within a unified framework, clinically feasible multi-bed dynamic PET acquisition protocols and parametric imaging methods. In a companion study, we presented a novel clinically feasible dynamic (4D) multi-bed PET acquisition protocol as well as the concept of whole-body PET parametric imaging employing Patlak ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate the quantitative parameters of tracer uptake rate K i and total blood distribution volume V. In the present study, we propose an advanced hybrid linear regression framework, driven by Patlak kinetic voxel correlations, to achieve superior trade-off between contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and mean squared error (MSE) than provided by OLS for the final K i parametric images, enabling task-based performance optimization. Overall, whether the observer's task is to detect a tumor or quantitatively assess treatment response, the proposed statistical estimation framework can be adapted to satisfy the specific task performance criteria, by adjusting the Patlak correlation-coefficient (WR) reference value. The multi-bed dynamic acquisition protocol, as optimized in the preceding companion
Hassan, Mahamood M.; Schwartz, Bill N.
2014-01-01
This paper discusses a student research project that is part of an advanced cost accounting class. The project emphasizes active learning, integrates cost accounting with macroeconomics and statistics by "learning by doing" using real world data. Students analyze sales data for a publicly listed company by focusing on the company's…
An Optimization Principle for Deriving Nonequilibrium Statistical Models of Hamiltonian Dynamics
Turkington, Bruce
2013-08-01
A general method for deriving closed reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. Given a vector of resolved variables, selected to describe the macroscopic state of the system, a family of quasi-equilibrium probability densities on phase space corresponding to the resolved variables is employed as a statistical model, and the evolution of the mean resolved vector is estimated by optimizing over paths of these densities. Specifically, a cost function is constructed to quantify the lack-of-fit to the microscopic dynamics of any feasible path of densities from the statistical model; it is an ensemble-averaged, weighted, squared-norm of the residual that results from submitting the path of densities to the Liouville equation. The path that minimizes the time integral of the cost function determines the best-fit evolution of the mean resolved vector. The closed reduced equations satisfied by the optimal path are derived by Hamilton-Jacobi theory. When expressed in terms of the macroscopic variables, these equations have the generic structure of governing equations for nonequilibrium thermodynamics. In particular, the value function for the optimization principle coincides with the dissipation potential that defines the relation between thermodynamic forces and fluxes. The adjustable closure parameters in the best-fit reduced equations depend explicitly on the arbitrary weights that enter into the lack-of-fit cost function. Two particular model reductions are outlined to illustrate the general method. In each example the set of weights in the optimization principle contracts into a single effective closure parameter.
Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics
Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.
2017-10-01
This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.
Statistical Analysis of the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) Field Projects
Ekness, Jamie Lynn
The North Dakota farming industry brings in more than $4.1 billion annually in cash receipts. Unfortunately, agriculture sales vary significantly from year to year, which is due in large part to weather events such as hail storms and droughts. One method to mitigate drought is to use hygroscopic seeding to increase the precipitation efficiency of clouds. The North Dakota Atmospheric Research Board (NDARB) sponsored the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) research project to determine the effectiveness of hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota. The POLCAST field projects obtained airborne and radar observations, while conducting randomized cloud seeding. The Thunderstorm Identification Tracking and Nowcasting (TITAN) program is used to analyze radar data (33 usable cases) in determining differences in the duration of the storm, rain rate and total rain amount between seeded and non-seeded clouds. The single ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases is 1.56 (0.28 mm/0.18 mm) or 56% increase for the average hourly rainfall during the first 60 minutes after target selection. A seeding effect is indicated with the lifetime of the storms increasing by 41 % between seeded and non-seeded clouds for the first 60 minutes past seeding decision. A double ratio statistic, a comparison of radar derived rain amount of the last 40 minutes of a case (seed/non-seed), compared to the first 20 minutes (seed/non-seed), is used to account for the natural variability of the cloud system and gives a double ratio of 1.85. The Mann-Whitney test on the double ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases (33 cases) gives a significance (p-value) of 0.063. Bootstrapping analysis of the POLCAST set indicates that 50 cases would provide statistically significant results based on the Mann-Whitney test of the double ratio. All the statistical analysis conducted on the POLCAST data set show that hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota does increase precipitation. While an additional POLCAST field
Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.
2004-01-01
Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517
Project T.E.A.M. (Technical Education Advancement Modules). Advanced Statistical Process Control.
Dunlap, Dale
This instructional guide, one of a series developed by the Technical Education Advancement Modules (TEAM) project, is a 20-hour advanced statistical process control (SPC) and quality improvement course designed to develop the following competencies: (1) understanding quality systems; (2) knowing the process; (3) solving quality problems; and (4)…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Ning; Spitz, H.B.; Tomezak, L.
1996-01-01
A comprehensive real-time, environmental radon monitoring program is being conducted at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, where a large quantity of radium-bearing residues have been stored in two covered earth-bermed silos. Statistical analyses was conducted to determine what impact radon emitted by the radium bearing materials contained in the silos has on the ambient radon concentration at the Fernald Environmental Management Project site. The distribution that best describes the outdoor radon monitoring data was determined before statistical analyses were conducted. Random effects associated with the selection of radon monitoring locations were accommodated by using nested and nested factorial classification models. The Project site was divided into four general areas according to their characteristics and functions: (1) the silo area, where the radium-bearing waste is stored; (2) the production/administration area; (3) the perimeter area, or fence-line, of the Fernald Environmental Management Project site; and (4) a background area, located approximately 13 km from the Fernald Environmental Management Project site, representing the naturally-occurring radon concentration. A total of 15 continuous, hourly readout radon monitors were installed to measure the outdoor radon concentration. Measurement results from each individual monitor were found to be log-normally distributed. A series of contrast tests, which take random effects into account, were performed to compare the radon concentration between different areas of the site. These comparisons demonstrate that the radon concentrations in the production/administration area and the perimeter area are statistically equal to the natural background, whereas the silo area is significantly higher than background. The study also showed that the radon concentration in the silo area was significantly reduced after a sealant barrier was applied to the contents of the silos. 10 refs., 6 figs., 8 tabs
The dynamics of software development project management: An integrative systems dynamic perspective
Vandervelde, W. E.; Abdel-Hamid, T.
1984-01-01
Rather than continuing to focus on software development projects per se, the system dynamics modeling approach outlined is extended to investigate a broader set of issues pertaining to the software development organization. Rather than trace the life cycle(s) of one or more software projects, the focus is on the operations of a software development department as a continuous stream of software products are developed, placed into operation, and maintained. A number of research questions are ""ripe'' for investigating including: (1) the efficacy of different organizational structures in different software development environments, (2) personnel turnover, (3) impact of management approaches such as management by objectives, and (4) the organizational/environmental determinants of productivity.
Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.
Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro
2018-01-01
The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.
Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: age-size statistics and species lifetimes
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kessler, D.; Suweis, S.; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.
2015-01-01
Roč. 92, č. 2 (2015), 022722-1-022722-10 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/12/2613 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Neutral dynamics * environmental noise * age-size relationships * species extinction time Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 2.288, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/formentin-0452979.pdf
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baogui Xin
2015-04-01
Full Text Available A projective synchronization scheme for a kind of n-dimensional discrete dynamical system is proposed by means of a linear feedback control technique. The scheme consists of master and slave discrete dynamical systems coupled by linear state error variables. A kind of novel 3-D chaotic discrete system is constructed, to which the test for chaos is applied. By using the stability principles of an upper or lower triangular matrix, two controllers for achieving projective synchronization are designed and illustrated with the novel systems. Lastly some numerical simulations are employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed projective synchronization scheme.
Group dynamics for the acquisition of competences in Project Management
Taguas, E. V.; Aguilar, M. C.; Castillo, C.; Polo, M. J.; Pérez, R.
2012-04-01
The Bologna Process promotes European citizens' employability from teaching fields in the University which implies the design of activities addressed to the development of skills for the labor market and engagement of employers. This work has been conceived for improving the formation of Engineering Project Management through group dynamics focused on: 1) the use of the creativity for solving problems; 2) promoting leadership capacities and social skills in multidisciplinary/multicultural work groups; 3) the ethical, social and environmental compromise; 4) the continuous learning. Different types of activities were designed: short activities of 15-30 minutes where fragments of books or songs are presented and discussed and long activities (2 h) where groups of students take different roles for solving common problems and situations within the Engineering Projects context. An electronic book with the content of the dynamics and the material for the students has been carried out. A sample of 20 students of Electronic Engineering degree which had participated at least in two dynamics, evaluated the utility for improving their formation in Engineering Project Management with a mark of 8.2 (scale 0-10, standard deviation equal to 0.9). On the other hand, the teachers observed how this type of work, promotes the interdisciplinary training and the acquisition of social skills, usually not-included in the objectives of the subjects.
Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.
2017-10-01
Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dirk Lauwaet
2015-06-01
Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.
a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems
Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.
As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.
Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*
Castruccio, Stefano
2014-03-01
The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.
Do You Need to See It to Believe It? Let's See Statistics and Geometry Dynamically Together!
Martins, José Alexandre; Roca, Assumpta Estrada; Nascimento, Maria Manuel
2014-01-01
Statistical graphs, measures of central tendency and measures of spread are key concepts in the statistics curriculum, so we present here a dynamic method (software) that may be used in the classroom. In this work we begin with an introductory approach. This is done to emphasize the importance of stimulating the visualization of statistical…
Janssen, M.; Voort, H. van der; Veenstra, A.F.E. van
2015-01-01
Many large transformation projects do not result in the outcomes desired or envisioned by the stakeholders. This type of project is characterised by dynamics which are both caused by and result of uncertainties and unexpected behaviour. In this paper a complex adaptive system (CAS) view was adopted
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, Gyeong Hui
2008-03-01
This book consists of 15 chapters, which are basic conception and meaning of statistical thermodynamics, Maxwell-Boltzmann's statistics, ensemble, thermodynamics function and fluctuation, statistical dynamics with independent particle system, ideal molecular system, chemical equilibrium and chemical reaction rate in ideal gas mixture, classical statistical thermodynamics, ideal lattice model, lattice statistics and nonideal lattice model, imperfect gas theory on liquid, theory on solution, statistical thermodynamics of interface, statistical thermodynamics of a high molecule system and quantum statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faust, H.; Koester, U.; Kessedjian, G.; Sage, C.; Chebboubi, A.
2013-01-01
We review the statistical model and its application for the process of nuclear fission. The expressions for excitation energy and spin distributions for the individual fission fragments are given. We will finally emphasize the importance of measuring prompt gamma decay to further test the statistical model in nuclear fission with the FIPPS project. (authors)
Real-Time Projection-Based Augmented Reality System for Dynamic Objects in the Performing Arts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jaewoon Lee
2015-02-01
Full Text Available This paper describes the case study of applying projection-based augmented reality, especially for dynamic objects in live performing shows, such as plays, dancing, or musicals. Our study aims to project imagery correctly inside the silhouettes of flexible objects, in other words, live actors or the surface of actor’s costumes; the silhouette transforms its own shape frequently. To realize this work, we implemented a special projection system based on the real-time masking technique, that is to say real-time projection-based augmented reality system for dynamic objects in performing arts. We installed the sets on a stage for live performance, and rehearsed particular scenes of a musical. In live performance, using projection-based augmented reality technology enhances technical and theatrical aspects which were not possible with existing video projection techniques. The projected images on the surfaces of actor’s costume could not only express the particular scene of a performance more effectively, but also lead the audience to an extraordinary visual experience.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazoyer, B.M.; Huesman, R.H.; Budinger, T.F.; Knittel, B.L.
1986-01-01
Over the past years a major focus of research in physiologic studies employing tracers has been the computer implementation of mathematical methods of kinetic modeling for extracting the desired physiological parameters from tomographically derived data. A study is reported of factors that affect the statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) experiments
A Survey of Statistical Capstone Projects
Martonosi, Susan E.; Williams, Talithia D.
2016-01-01
In this article, we highlight the advantages of incorporating a statistical capstone experience in the undergraduate curriculum, where students perform an in-depth analysis of real-world data. Capstone experiences develop statistical thinking by allowing students to engage in a consulting-like experience that requires skills outside the scope of…
Billings, Paul H.
This instructional guide, one of a series developed by the Technical Education Advancement Modules (TEAM) project, is a 6-hour introductory module on statistical process control (SPC), designed to develop competencies in the following skill areas: (1) identification of the three classes of SPC use; (2) understanding a process and how it works; (3)…
Whole Frog Project and Virtual Frog Dissection Statistics wwwstats output for January 1 through duplicate or extraneous accesses. For example, in these statistics, while a POST requesting an image is as well. Note that this under-represents the bytes requested. Starting date for following statistics
SPECT acquisition using dynamic projections: a novel approach for data-driven respiratory gating
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hutton, B.F.; Hatton, R.L.; Yip, N.
2002-01-01
Full text: Movement of the heart due to respiration has been previously demonstrated to produce potentially serious artefacts. On-line respiratory gating is difficult, as it requires a high level of patient cooperation. We demonstrate that use of dynamic acquisition of projections permits identification of the respiratory dynamics, allowing retrospective selection of data corresponding to a fixed point in the respiratory cycle. To demonstrate the feasibility of the technique a dynamic study was acquired just prior to myocardial per-fusion SPECT acquisition, using 5 frames/sec for 20 seconds (64*64 matrix) in anterior and lateral projections (using a dual-head right-angled configuration). The dynamic was processed a) by compressing frames in the transverse direction so as to illustrate time dependence, b) by plotting the centre of mass in the axial direction as a function of time. Respiratory motion was enhanced by use of temporal smoothing and intensity thresholding. In ten patients studied the cyclic pattern of motion due to respiratory dynamics was clearly visible in nine. Respiration typically resulted in around 1cm axial translation but in some individuals, movements as large as 3 cm were identified. The respiration rate ranged from 12-18 /min in agreement with independent observation of the patient's breathing pattern. These results suggest that retrospective respiratory gating is feasible without the need for any external respiratory monitoring device, provide that dynamic acquisition of SPECT projections is implemented. Correction for respiratory motion may also be feasible using this technique. Copyright (2002) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc
Statistical dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations for geophysical flows
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
O'Kane, T J; Frederiksen, J S
2008-01-01
Simulations of both atmospheric and oceanic circulations at given finite resolutions are strongly dependent on the form and strengths of the dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) and in particular are sensitive to subgrid-scale transient eddies interacting with the retained scale topography and the mean flow. In this paper, we present numerical results for SSPs of the eddy-topographic force, stochastic backscatter, eddy viscosity and eddy-mean field interaction using an inhomogeneous statistical turbulence model based on a quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA). Although the theoretical description on which our model is based is for general barotropic flows, we specifically focus on global atmospheric flows where large-scale Rossby waves are present. We compare and contrast the closure-based results with an important earlier heuristic SSP of the eddy-topographic force, based on maximum entropy or statistical canonical equilibrium arguments, developed specifically for general ocean circulation models (Holloway 1992 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22 1033-46). Our results demonstrate that where strong zonal flows and Rossby waves are present, such as in the atmosphere, maximum entropy arguments are insufficient to accurately parameterize the subgrid contributions due to eddy-eddy, eddy-topographic and eddy-mean field interactions. We contrast our atmospheric results with findings for the oceans. Our study identifies subgrid-scale interactions that are currently not parameterized in numerical atmospheric climate models, which may lead to systematic defects in the simulated circulations.
Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent
2015-01-01
The point of this study is to define the effect of project-based learning approach on 8th Grade secondary-school students' statistical literacy levels for data representation. To achieve this goal, a test which consists of 12 open-ended questions in accordance with the views of experts was developed. Seventy 8th grade secondary-school students, 35…
A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data
Feiveson, Alan H.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Paloski, William H.
2002-01-01
Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.
Statistical dynamic image reconstruction in state-of-the-art high-resolution PET
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahmim, Arman; Cheng, J-C; Blinder, Stephan; Camborde, Maurie-Laure; Sossi, Vesna
2005-01-01
Modern high-resolution PET is now more than ever in need of scrutiny into the nature and limitations of the imaging modality itself as well as image reconstruction techniques. In this work, we have reviewed, analysed and addressed the following three considerations within the particular context of state-of-the-art dynamic PET imaging: (i) the typical average numbers of events per line-of-response (LOR) are now (much) less than unity (ii) due to the physical and biological decay of the activity distribution, one requires robust and efficient reconstruction algorithms applicable to a wide range of statistics and (iii) the computational considerations in dynamic imaging are much enhanced (i.e., more frames to be stored and reconstructed). Within the framework of statistical image reconstruction, we have argued theoretically and shown experimentally that the sinogram non-negativity constraint (when using the delayed-coincidence and/or scatter-subtraction techniques) is especially expected to result in an overestimation bias. Subsequently, two schemes are considered: (a) subtraction techniques in which an image non-negativity constraint has been imposed and (b) implementation of random and scatter estimates inside the reconstruction algorithms, thus enabling direct processing of Poisson-distributed prompts. Both techniques are able to remove the aforementioned bias, while the latter, being better conditioned theoretically, is able to exhibit superior noise characteristics. We have also elaborated upon and verified the applicability of the accelerated list-mode image reconstruction method as a powerful solution for accurate, robust and efficient dynamic reconstructions of high-resolution data (as well as a number of additional benefits in the context of state-of-the-art PET)
Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Beckers, Veronique; Debusscher, Bos; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis
2016-04-01
Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow numerous other applications, leading to amelioration of some of their modules (e.g., evaluating sensitivity of the hydrological module to land surface changes) and developments (e.g., coupling with other models like agent-based models), to be used in ecosystem management and land use planning studies. It is in this dynamic context about DVMs that we have adapted the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) model. One of the main improvements is the implementation of a crop module, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields. We try to validate this module at different scales: - from the plot level, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network, such as Lonzée (Belgium) or other Western European sites (Grignon, Dijkgraaf,…), - to the country level, for which we compare the crop yield calculated by CARAIB to the crop yield statistics for Belgium and for different agricultural regions of the country. Another challenge for the CARAIB DVM was to deal with the landscape dynamics, which is not directly possible due to the lack of consideration of anthropogenic factors in the system. In the framework of the VOTES and the MASC projects, CARAIB is coupled with an agent-based model (ABM), representing the societal component of the system. This coupled module allows the use of climate and socio-economic scenarios, particularly interesting for studies which aim at ensuring a sustainable approach. This module has particularly been exploited in the VOTES project, where the objective was to provide a social, biophysical and economic assessment of the ecosystem services in
Tracking single dynamic MEG dipole sources using the projected Extended Kalman Filter.
Yao, Yuchen; Swindlehurst, A Lee
2011-01-01
This paper presents two new algorithms based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for tracking the parameters of single dynamic magnetoencephalography (MEG) dipole sources. We assume a dynamic MEG dipole source with possibly both time-varying location and dipole orientation. The standard EKF-based tracking algorithm performs well under the assumption that the dipole source components vary in time as a Gauss-Markov process, provided that the background noise is temporally stationary. We propose a Projected-EKF algorithm that is adapted to a more forgiving condition where the background noise is temporally nonstationary, as well as a Projected-GLS-EKF algorithm that works even more universally, when the dipole components vary arbitrarily from one sample to the next.
Lu, Zhao; Sun, Jing; Butts, Kenneth
2016-02-03
A giant leap has been made in the past couple of decades with the introduction of kernel-based learning as a mainstay for designing effective nonlinear computational learning algorithms. In view of the geometric interpretation of conditional expectation and the ubiquity of multiscale characteristics in highly complex nonlinear dynamic systems [1]-[3], this paper presents a new orthogonal projection operator wavelet kernel, aiming at developing an efficient computational learning approach for nonlinear dynamical system identification. In the framework of multiresolution analysis, the proposed projection operator wavelet kernel can fulfill the multiscale, multidimensional learning to estimate complex dependencies. The special advantage of the projection operator wavelet kernel developed in this paper lies in the fact that it has a closed-form expression, which greatly facilitates its application in kernel learning. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first closed-form orthogonal projection wavelet kernel reported in the literature. It provides a link between grid-based wavelets and mesh-free kernel-based methods. Simulation studies for identifying the parallel models of two benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems confirm its superiority in model accuracy and sparsity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ono, A.; Horiuchi, H.
1996-01-01
Statistical properties of antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD) are classical in the case of nucleon-emission processes, while they are quantum mechanical for the processes without nucleon emission. In order to understand this situation, we first clarify that there coexist mutually opposite two statistics in the AMD framework: One is the classical statistics of the motion of wave packet centroids and the other is the quantum statistics of the motion of wave packets which is described by the AMD wave function. We prove the classical statistics of wave packet centroids by using the framework of the microcanonical ensemble of the nuclear system with a realistic effective two-nucleon interaction. We show that the relation between the classical statistics of wave packet centroids and the quantum statistics of wave packets can be obtained by taking into account the effects of the wave packet spread. This relation clarifies how the quantum statistics of wave packets emerges from the classical statistics of wave packet centroids. It is emphasized that the temperature of the classical statistics of wave packet centroids is different from the temperature of the quantum statistics of wave packets. We then explain that the statistical properties of AMD for nucleon-emission processes are classical because nucleon-emission processes in AMD are described by the motion of wave packet centroids. We further show that when we improve the description of the nucleon-emission process so as to take into account the momentum fluctuation due to the wave packet spread, the AMD statistical properties for nucleon-emission processes change drastically into quantum statistics. Our study of nucleon-emission processes can be conversely regarded as giving another kind of proof of the fact that the statistics of wave packets is quantum mechanical while that of wave packet centroids is classical. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society
Computer architecture evaluation for structural dynamics computations: Project summary
Standley, Hilda M.
1989-01-01
The intent of the proposed effort is the examination of the impact of the elements of parallel architectures on the performance realized in a parallel computation. To this end, three major projects are developed: a language for the expression of high level parallelism, a statistical technique for the synthesis of multicomputer interconnection networks based upon performance prediction, and a queueing model for the analysis of shared memory hierarchies.
Statistical Characteristics of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Enhancements During Geomagnetic Storms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C.-R. Choi
2008-06-01
Full Text Available Solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements are known to cause various types of disturbances to the magnetosphere. In particular, dynamic pressure enhancements may affect the evolution of magnetic storms when they occur during storm times. In this paper, we have investigated the statistical significance and features of dynamic pressure enhancements during magnetic storm times. For the investigation, we have used a total of 91 geomagnetic storms for 2001-2003, for which the Dst minimum (Dst_min is below -50 nT. Also, we have imposed a set of selection criteria for a pressure enhancement to be considered an event: The main selection criterion is that the pressure increases by ≥50% or ≥3nPa within 30 min and remains to be elevated for 10 min or longer. For our statistical analysis, we define the storm time to be the interval from the main Dst decrease, through Dst_min, to the point where the Dst index recovers by 50%. Our main results are summarized as follows. (i ~81% of the studied storms indicate at least one event of pressure enhancements. When averaged over all the 91 storms, the occurrence rate is 4.5 pressure enhancement events per storm and 0.15 pressure enhancement events per hour. (ii The occurrence rate of the pressure enhancements is about three times higher for CME-driven storm times than for CIR-driven storm times. (iii Only 21.1% of the pressure enhancements show a clear association with an interplanetary shock. (iv A large number of the pressure enhancement events are accompanied with a simultaneous change of IMF By and/or Bz: For example, 73.5% of the pressure enhancement events are associated with an IMF change of either |∆Bz|>2nT or |∆By|>2nT. This last finding suggests that one should consider possible interplay effects between the simultaneous pressure and IMF changes in many situations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cofré, Rodrigo; Cessac, Bruno
2013-01-01
We investigate the effect of electric synapses (gap junctions) on collective neuronal dynamics and spike statistics in a conductance-based integrate-and-fire neural network, driven by Brownian noise, where conductances depend upon spike history. We compute explicitly the time evolution operator and show that, given the spike-history of the network and the membrane potentials at a given time, the further dynamical evolution can be written in a closed form. We show that spike train statistics is described by a Gibbs distribution whose potential can be approximated with an explicit formula, when the noise is weak. This potential form encompasses existing models for spike trains statistics analysis such as maximum entropy models or generalized linear models (GLM). We also discuss the different types of correlations: those induced by a shared stimulus and those induced by neurons interactions
Preliminary results of statistical dynamic experiments on a heat exchanger
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Corran, E.R.; Cummins, J.D.
1962-10-01
The inherent noise signals present in a heat exchanger have been recorded and analysed in order to determine some of the statistical dynamic characteristics of the heat exchanger. These preliminary results show that the primary side temperature frequency response may be determined by analysing the inherent noise. The secondary side temperature frequency response and cross coupled temperature frequency responses between primary and secondary are poorly determined because of the presence of a non-stationary noise source in the secondary circuit of this heat exchanger. This may be overcome by correlating the dependent variables with an externally applied noise signal. Some preliminary experiments with an externally applied random telegraph type of signal are reported. (author)
Leydesdorff, L.
2013-01-01
The gap in statistics between multi-variate and time-series analysis can be bridged by using entropy statistics and recent developments in multi-dimensional scaling. For explaining the evolution of the sciences as non-linear dynamics, the configurations among variables can be important in addition
Manning, Robert M.
1991-01-01
The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Budgor, A.B.; West, B.J.
1978-01-01
We employ the equivalence between Zwanzig's projection-operator formalism and perturbation theory to demonstrate that the approximate-solution technique of statistical linearization for nonlinear stochastic differential equations corresponds to the lowest-order β truncation in both the consolidated perturbation expansions and in the ''mass operator'' of a renormalized Green's function equation. Other consolidated equations can be obtained by selectively modifying this mass operator. We particularize the results of this paper to the Duffing anharmonic oscillator equation
Statistical Physics An Introduction
Yoshioka, Daijiro
2007-01-01
This book provides a comprehensive presentation of the basics of statistical physics. The first part explains the essence of statistical physics and how it provides a bridge between microscopic and macroscopic phenomena, allowing one to derive quantities such as entropy. Here the author avoids going into details such as Liouville’s theorem or the ergodic theorem, which are difficult for beginners and unnecessary for the actual application of the statistical mechanics. In the second part, statistical mechanics is applied to various systems which, although they look different, share the same mathematical structure. In this way readers can deepen their understanding of statistical physics. The book also features applications to quantum dynamics, thermodynamics, the Ising model and the statistical dynamics of free spins.
The dynamics of fragment formation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keane, D.
1994-09-01
We demonstrate that in the Quantum Molecular Dynamics model, dynamical correlations can result in the production rate for final state nucleon clusters (and hence composite fragments) being higher than would be expected if statistics and the available phase space were dominant in determining composite formation. An intranuclear cascade or a Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck model, combined with a statistical approach in the late stage of the collision to determine composites, provides an equivalent description only under limited conditions of centrality and beam energy. We use data on participant fragment production in Au + Au collisions in the Bevalac's BOS time projection chamber to map out the parameter space where statistical clustering provides a good description. In particular, we investigate momentum-space densities of fragments up to 4 He as a function of fragment transverse momentum, azimuth relative to the reaction plane, rapidity, multiplicity and beam energy
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2007-01-01
Gyro's fault diagnosis plays a critical role in inertia navigation systems for higher reliability and precision. A new fault diagnosis strategy based on the statistical parameter analysis (SPA) and support vector machine(SVM) classification model was proposed for dynamically tuned gyroscopes (DTG). The SPA, a kind of time domain analysis approach, was introduced to compute a set of statistical parameters of vibration signal as the state features of DTG, with which the SVM model, a novel learning machine based on statistical learning theory (SLT), was applied and constructed to train and identify the working state of DTG. The experimental results verify that the proposed diagnostic strategy can simply and effectively extract the state features of DTG, and it outperforms the radial-basis function (RBF) neural network based diagnostic method and can more reliably and accurately diagnose the working state of DTG.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Huth, Radan; Mikšovský, J.; Štěpánek, P.; Belda, M.; Farda, A.; Chládová, Zuzana; Pišoft, P.
2015-01-01
Roč. 120, 3-4 (2015), s. 533-553 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/2405 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 37005 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : statistical downscaling models * regional climate models * central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.433, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/ article /10.1007%2Fs00704-014-1190-3
Dynamic Staffing and Rescheduling in Software Project Management: A Hybrid Approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yujia Ge
Full Text Available Resource allocation could be influenced by various dynamic elements, such as the skills of engineers and the growth of skills, which requires managers to find an effective and efficient tool to support their staffing decision-making processes. Rescheduling happens commonly and frequently during the project execution. Control options have to be made when new resources are added or tasks are changed. In this paper we propose a software project staffing model considering dynamic elements of staff productivity with a Genetic Algorithm (GA and Hill Climbing (HC based optimizer. Since a newly generated reschedule dramatically different from the initial schedule could cause an obvious shifting cost increase, our rescheduling strategies consider both efficiency and stability. The results of real world case studies and extensive simulation experiments show that our proposed method is effective and could achieve comparable performance to other heuristic algorithms in most cases.
Practical statistics a handbook for business projects
Buglear, John
2013-01-01
Practical Statistics is a hands-on guide to statistics, progressing by complexity of data (univariate, bivariate, multivariate) and analysis (portray, summarise, generalise) in order to give the reader a solid understanding of the fundamentals and how to apply them.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edyta Mikołajczyk
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Balance disorders are common in people with intellectual disability (ID. Aim of the research: The continuation of the project is aimed at finding out whether extension of the unstable surface dual-task functional exercises programme by another 12 weeks affects the level of dynamic balance in adolescents with ID and what those changes are like after the 8-week summer holidays. Material and methods: A total of 17 adolescents with ID aged 14–16 years (E performed functional exercises for another 12 weeks on unstable surfaces, and a group of 17 individuals with ID were the controls. Dynamic balance was assessed three times: after the first stage of the programme (test 2, after another 12 weeks (test 3, after the 8-week holiday (test 4. ALFA AC An International East stabilometric platform was used for measurements. Results : No statistical differences were discovered in group E, in dynamic balance assessment between test 2 and 3; however, the mean scores in group E, in test 3, were slightly better than in test 2, and notably better than in group C. No significant differences between test 3 and 4 were found in group E either. Conclusions : Extension of the intervention program helped to maintain improved dynamic balance. Discontinuation of the program for the period of 8 weeks resulted in decreased level of balance; however, it was still higher than at the beginning of the project. Dual-task functional exercises based on activities of daily living (ADLs and stimulation of righting reactions may enhance dynamic balance in individuals with ID, but it should be constantly stimulated.
Ramler, Ivan P.; Chapman, Jessica L.
2011-01-01
In this article we describe a semester-long project, based on the popular video game series Guitar Hero, designed to introduce upper-level undergraduate statistics students to statistical research. Some of the goals of this project are to help students develop statistical thinking that allows them to approach and answer open-ended research…
SU-E-J-261: Statistical Analysis and Chaotic Dynamics of Respiratory Signal of Patients in BodyFix
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Michalski, D; Huq, M; Bednarz, G; Lalonde, R; Yang, Y; Heron, D [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
2014-06-01
Purpose: To quantify respiratory signal of patients in BodyFix undergoing 4DCT scan with and without immobilization cover. Methods: 20 pairs of respiratory tracks recorded with RPM system during 4DCT scan were analyzed. Descriptive statistic was applied to selected parameters of exhale-inhale decomposition. Standardized signals were used with the delay method to build orbits in embedded space. Nonlinear behavior was tested with surrogate data. Sample entropy SE, Lempel-Ziv complexity LZC and the largest Lyapunov exponents LLE were compared. Results: Statistical tests show difference between scans for inspiration time and its variability, which is bigger for scans without cover. The same is for variability of the end of exhalation and inhalation. Other parameters fail to show the difference. For both scans respiratory signals show determinism and nonlinear stationarity. Statistical test on surrogate data reveals their nonlinearity. LLEs show signals chaotic nature and its correlation with breathing period and its embedding delay time. SE, LZC and LLE measure respiratory signal complexity. Nonlinear characteristics do not differ between scans. Conclusion: Contrary to expectation cover applied to patients in BodyFix appears to have limited effect on signal parameters. Analysis based on trajectories of delay vectors shows respiratory system nonlinear character and its sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Reproducibility of respiratory signal can be evaluated with measures of signal complexity and its predictability window. Longer respiratory period is conducive for signal reproducibility as shown by these gauges. Statistical independence of the exhale and inhale times is also supported by the magnitude of LLE. The nonlinear parameters seem more appropriate to gauge respiratory signal complexity since its deterministic chaotic nature. It contrasts with measures based on harmonic analysis that are blind for nonlinear features. Dynamics of breathing, so crucial for
SU-E-J-261: Statistical Analysis and Chaotic Dynamics of Respiratory Signal of Patients in BodyFix
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Michalski, D; Huq, M; Bednarz, G; Lalonde, R; Yang, Y; Heron, D
2014-01-01
Purpose: To quantify respiratory signal of patients in BodyFix undergoing 4DCT scan with and without immobilization cover. Methods: 20 pairs of respiratory tracks recorded with RPM system during 4DCT scan were analyzed. Descriptive statistic was applied to selected parameters of exhale-inhale decomposition. Standardized signals were used with the delay method to build orbits in embedded space. Nonlinear behavior was tested with surrogate data. Sample entropy SE, Lempel-Ziv complexity LZC and the largest Lyapunov exponents LLE were compared. Results: Statistical tests show difference between scans for inspiration time and its variability, which is bigger for scans without cover. The same is for variability of the end of exhalation and inhalation. Other parameters fail to show the difference. For both scans respiratory signals show determinism and nonlinear stationarity. Statistical test on surrogate data reveals their nonlinearity. LLEs show signals chaotic nature and its correlation with breathing period and its embedding delay time. SE, LZC and LLE measure respiratory signal complexity. Nonlinear characteristics do not differ between scans. Conclusion: Contrary to expectation cover applied to patients in BodyFix appears to have limited effect on signal parameters. Analysis based on trajectories of delay vectors shows respiratory system nonlinear character and its sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Reproducibility of respiratory signal can be evaluated with measures of signal complexity and its predictability window. Longer respiratory period is conducive for signal reproducibility as shown by these gauges. Statistical independence of the exhale and inhale times is also supported by the magnitude of LLE. The nonlinear parameters seem more appropriate to gauge respiratory signal complexity since its deterministic chaotic nature. It contrasts with measures based on harmonic analysis that are blind for nonlinear features. Dynamics of breathing, so crucial for
eSACP - a new Nordic initiative towards developing statistical climate services
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Thejll, Peter; Drews, Martin; Guttorp, Peter; Venälainen, Ari; Uotila, Petteri; Benestad, Rasmus; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Madsen, Henrik; Fox Maule, Cathrine
2015-04-01
The Nordic research council NordForsk has recently announced its support for a new 3-year research initiative on "statistical analysis of climate projections" (eSACP). eSACP will focus on developing e-science tools and services based on statistical analysis of climate projections for the purpose of helping decision-makers and planners in the face of expected future challenges in regional climate change. The motivation behind the project is the growing recognition in our society that forecasts of future climate change is associated with various sources of uncertainty, and that any long-term planning and decision-making dependent on a changing climate must account for this. At the same time there is an obvious gap between scientists from different fields and between practitioners in terms of understanding how climate information relates to different parts of the "uncertainty cascade". In eSACP we will develop generic e-science tools and statistical climate services to facilitate the use of climate projections by decision-makers and scientists from all fields for climate impact analyses and for the development of robust adaptation strategies, which properly (in a statistical sense) account for the inherent uncertainty. The new tool will be publically available and include functionality to utilize the extensive and dynamically growing repositories of data and use state-of-the-art statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty and innovative approaches to visualize the results. Such a tool will not only be valuable for future assessments and underpin the development of dedicated climate services, but will also assist the scientific community in making more clearly its case on the consequences of our changing climate to policy makers and the general public. The eSACP project is led by Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, and also includes the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the Technical University of Denmark
Vitanov, Nikolay K
2016-01-01
This book deals with methods to evaluate scientific productivity. In the book statistical methods, deterministic and stochastic models and numerous indexes are discussed that will help the reader to understand the nonlinear science dynamics and to be able to develop or construct systems for appropriate evaluation of research productivity and management of research groups and organizations. The dynamics of science structures and systems is complex, and the evaluation of research productivity requires a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and measures. The book has three parts. The first part is devoted to mathematical models describing the importance of science for economic growth and systems for the evaluation of research organizations of different size. The second part contains descriptions and discussions of numerous indexes for the evaluation of the productivity of researchers and groups of researchers of different size (up to the comparison of research productivities of research communiti...
Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio
2012-01-01
In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007)10.1063/1.2430711]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constrain...
Dynamic Model of Market with Uninformed Market Maker
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šmíd, Martin; Kopa, Miloš
2017-01-01
Roč. 53, č. 5 (2017), s. 922-958 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : market maker * optimal decision * price and inventory * high frequency data * dynamic model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://www.library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/smid-0483753.pdf
A foundation for the statistical dynamical theory of diffraction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kato, Norio
1991-01-01
The statistical dynamical theory is reformulated on a sounder basis. The starting wave equation is free from the so-called Takagi-Taupin (T-T) approximation. Functional calculus, an operational technique and the concept of the Green function are used as mathematical tools. Integro-differential equations are derived for the coherent (averaged) wave field and the energy flow vector of the incoherent intensity field. The formulae are exact except for assuming a model in which the fluctuation of the lattice phase is a set of Gaussian random variables defined in three-dimensional space. The general framework of the previous theory is justified within the T-T approximation. In general, however, new terms must be added and some terms have to be revised by introducing a Green function matrix. The theory may be used as a starting point when any approximate theory is developed for practical purposes. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
George Isac
2004-01-01
Full Text Available In the first part of this paper we present a representation theorem for the directional derivative of the metric projection operator in an arbitrary Hilbert space. As a consequence of the representation theorem, we present in the second part the development of the theory of projected dynamical systems in infinite dimensional Hilbert space. We show that this development is possible if we use the viable solutions of differential inclusions. We use also pseudomonotone operators.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parshutkin, V.V.; Granovskiy, Yu.V.; Prozorovskaya, Z.N.
1986-01-01
Present work is devoted to statistical estimate of factors influence on sorption of Mo(Ⅵ) ions by tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions. The influence of different factors on the process of sorption of Co(Ⅵ) ions by cryo-granular tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions is studied and optimal conditions of their extraction from aqueous solutions are considered. It is defined that factors significant affect the sorption process in dynamic conditions are: concentration of Mo(Ⅵ) ions in solution; the mass of sorbent; the rate of transmission of solution through the layer of sorbent; concentration of SO 4 2- ions in solution.
Fauziah, D.; Mardiyana; Saputro, D. R. S.
2018-05-01
Assessment is an integral part in the learning process. The process and the result should be in line, regarding to measure the ability of learners. Authentic assessment refers to a form of assessment that measures the competence of attitudes, knowledge, and skills. In fact, many teachers including mathematics teachers who have implemented curriculum based teaching 2013 feel confuse and difficult in mastering the use of authentic assessment instruments. Therefore, it is necessary to design an authentic assessment instrument with an interactive mini media project where teacher can adopt it in the assessment. The type of this research is developmental research. The developmental research refers to the 4D models development, which consist of four stages: define, design, develop and disseminate. The research purpose is to create a valid mini project interactive media on statistical materials in junior high school. The retrieved valid instrument based on expert judgment are 3,1 for eligibility constructions aspect, and 3,2 for eligibility presentation aspect, 3,25 for eligibility contents aspect, and 2,9 for eligibility didactic aspect. The research results obtained interactive mini media projects on statistical materials using Adobe Flash so it can help teachers and students in achieving learning objectives.
Statistical model of exotic rotational correlations in emergent space-time
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hogan, Craig; Kwon, Ohkyung; Richardson, Jonathan
2017-06-06
A statistical model is formulated to compute exotic rotational correlations that arise as inertial frames and causal structure emerge on large scales from entangled Planck scale quantum systems. Noncommutative quantum dynamics are represented by random transverse displacements that respect causal symmetry. Entanglement is represented by covariance of these displacements in Planck scale intervals defined by future null cones of events on an observer's world line. Light that propagates in a nonradial direction inherits a projected component of the exotic rotational correlation that accumulates as a random walk in phase. A calculation of the projection and accumulation leads to exact predictions for statistical properties of exotic Planck scale correlations in an interferometer of any configuration. The cross-covariance for two nearly co-located interferometers is shown to depart only slightly from the autocovariance. Specific examples are computed for configurations that approximate realistic experiments, and show that the model can be rigorously tested.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diaz E, Mauricio; Pena Z, Gloria Elena
2004-01-01
This work presents a theoretical and methodological approach to system dynamics utilization to contribute in the comprehension and handle of complexly of management challenges what appears in design, construction and operation phases in concentrate infrastructure projects like as ports, big dams and industrial parks. The localization of this kind of projects generates socio environmental impacts in their influence zones, what requires a strategically management from enterprise owners, not only for to comply with current environmental laws but also ensure social viability of their projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.
2014-01-01
This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind...
Monitoring and Evaluation; Statistical Support for Life-cycle Studies, 2003 Annual Report.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Skalski, John
2003-12-01
This report summarizes the statistical analysis and consulting activities performed under Contract No. 00004134, Project No. 199105100 funded by Bonneville Power Administration during 2003. These efforts are focused on providing real-time predictions of outmigration timing, assessment of life-history performance measures, evaluation of status and trends in recovery, and guidance on the design and analysis of Columbia Basin fish and wildlife studies monitoring and evaluation studies. The overall objective of the project is to provide BPA and the rest of the fisheries community with statistical guidance on design, analysis, and interpretation of monitoring data, which will lead to improved monitoring and evaluation of salmonid mitigation programs in the Columbia/Snake River Basin. This overall goal is being accomplished by making fisheries data readily available for public scrutiny, providing statistical guidance on the design and analyses of studies by hands-on support and written documents, and providing real-time analyses of tagging results during the smolt outmigration for review by decision makers. For a decade, this project has been providing in-season projections of smolt outmigration timing to assist in spill management. As many as 50 different fish stocks at 8 different hydroprojects are tracked and real-time to predict the 'percent of run to date' and 'date to specific percentile'. The project also conducts added-value analyses of historical tagging data to understand relationships between fish responses, environmental factors, and anthropogenic effects. The statistical analysis of historical tagging data crosses agency lines in order to assimilate information on salmon population dynamics irrespective of origin. The lessons learned from past studies are used to improve the design and analyses of future monitoring and evaluation efforts. Through these efforts, the project attempts to provide the fisheries community with reliable analyses
Statistical physics of language dynamics
Loreto, Vittorio; Baronchelli, Andrea; Mukherjee, Animesh; Puglisi, Andrea; Tria, Francesca
2011-04-01
Language dynamics is a rapidly growing field that focuses on all processes related to the emergence, evolution, change and extinction of languages. Recently, the study of self-organization and evolution of language and meaning has led to the idea that a community of language users can be seen as a complex dynamical system, which collectively solves the problem of developing a shared communication framework through the back-and-forth signaling between individuals. We shall review some of the progress made in the past few years and highlight potential future directions of research in this area. In particular, the emergence of a common lexicon and of a shared set of linguistic categories will be discussed, as examples corresponding to the early stages of a language. The extent to which synthetic modeling is nowadays contributing to the ongoing debate in cognitive science will be pointed out. In addition, the burst of growth of the web is providing new experimental frameworks. It makes available a huge amount of resources, both as novel tools and data to be analyzed, allowing quantitative and large-scale analysis of the processes underlying the emergence of a collective information and language dynamics.
Path integral molecular dynamics for exact quantum statistics of multi-electronic-state systems.
Liu, Xinzijian; Liu, Jian
2018-03-14
An exact approach to compute physical properties for general multi-electronic-state (MES) systems in thermal equilibrium is presented. The approach is extended from our recent progress on path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD), Liu et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 145, 024103 (2016)] and Zhang et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 147, 034109 (2017)], for quantum statistical mechanics when a single potential energy surface is involved. We first define an effective potential function that is numerically favorable for MES-PIMD and then derive corresponding estimators in MES-PIMD for evaluating various physical properties. Its application to several representative one-dimensional and multi-dimensional models demonstrates that MES-PIMD in principle offers a practical tool in either of the diabatic and adiabatic representations for studying exact quantum statistics of complex/large MES systems when the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, Condon approximation, and harmonic bath approximation are broken.
On the structure of dynamic principal component analysis used in statistical process monitoring
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vanhatalo, Erik; Kulahci, Murat; Bergquist, Bjarne
2017-01-01
When principal component analysis (PCA) is used for statistical process monitoring it relies on the assumption that data are time independent. However, industrial data will often exhibit serial correlation. Dynamic PCA (DPCA) has been suggested as a remedy for high-dimensional and time...... for determining the number of principal components to retain. The number of retained principal components is determined by visual inspection of the serial correlation in the squared prediction error statistic, Q (SPE), together with the cumulative explained variance of the model. The methods are illustrated using...... driven method to determine the maximum number of lags in DPCA with a foundation in multivariate time series analysis. The method is based on the behavior of the eigenvalues of the lagged autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation matrices. Given a specific lag structure we also propose a method...
Dynamic underground stripping demonstration project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Newmark, R.L.
1992-04-01
LLNL is collaborating with the UC Berkeley College of Engineering to develop and demonstrate a system of thermal remediation techniques for rapid cleanup of localized underground spills. Called dynamic stripping to reflect the rapid and controllable nature of the process, it will combine steam injection, direct electrical heating, and tomographic geophysical imaging in a cleanup of the LLNL gasoline spill. In the first eight months of the project, a Clean Site engineering test was conducted to prove the field application of the techniques. Tests then began on the contaminated site in FY 1992. This report describes the work at the Clean Site, including design and performance criteria, test results, interpretations, and conclusions. We fielded 'a wide range of new designs and techniques, some successful and some not. In this document, we focus on results and performance, lessons learned, and design and operational changes recommended for work at the contaminated site. Each section focuses on a different aspect of the work and can be considered a self-contained contribution
Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling.
Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel
2014-01-01
The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.
Chen, How-Huan; Goodman, Alyssa
2018-01-01
In the past decade, multiple attempts at understanding the connection between filaments and star forming cores have been made using observations across the entire epectrum. However, the filaments and the cores are usually treated as predefined--and well-defined--entities, instead of structures that often come at different sizes, shapes, with substantially different dynamics, and inter-connected at different scales. In my dissertation, I present an array of studies using different statistical methods, including the dendrogram and the probability distribution function (PDF), of structures at different size scales within nearby molecular clouds. These structures are identified using observations of different density tracers, and where possible, in the multi-dimensional parameter space of key dynamic properties--the LSR velocity, the velocity dispersion, and the column density. The goal is to give an overview of structure formation in nearby star-forming clouds, as well as of the dynamics in these structures. I find that the overall statistical properties of a larger structure is often the summation/superposition of sub-structures within, and that there could be significant variations due to local physical processes. I also find that the star formation process within molecular clouds could in fact take place in a non-monolithic manner, connecting potentially merging and/or transient structures, at different scales.
An integrated ball projection technology for the study of dynamic interceptive actions.
Stone, J A; Panchuk, D; Davids, K; North, J S; Fairweather, I; Maynard, I W
2014-12-01
Dynamic interceptive actions, such as catching or hitting a ball, are important task vehicles for investigating the complex relationship between cognition, perception, and action in performance environments. Representative experimental designs have become more important recently, highlighting the need for research methods to ensure that the coupling of information and movement is faithfully maintained. However, retaining representative design while ensuring systematic control of experimental variables is challenging, due to the traditional tendency to employ methods that typically involve use of reductionist motor responses such as buttonpressing or micromovements. Here, we outline the methodology behind a custom-built, integrated ball projection technology that allows images of advanced visual information to be synchronized with ball projection. This integrated technology supports the controlled presentation of visual information to participants while they perform dynamic interceptive actions. We discuss theoretical ideas behind the integration of hardware and software, along with practical issues resolved in technological design, and emphasize how the system can be integrated with emerging developments such as mixed reality environments. We conclude by considering future developments and applications of the integrated projection technology for research in human movement behaviors.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg
2017-01-01
Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vianello, Juliano Melquiades; Costa, Leticia; Teixeira, José Paulo
2014-01-01
There is a large gap between the planned value of investment in a project and its financial implementation. This fact creates a mismatch between the planned and effectively achieved net present value (NPV) of the project. Considering the project portfolio of a company, this could even threaten your solvency in the future. Therefore, a quantitative-risk analysis that takes into account different possible scenarios for these values of investment is extremely important to measure statistically the real value of a project. The aim of this paper is to present the reasons for this mismatch between planned and executed investments and, from this study, obtain a suitable stochastic process to generate different scenarios for these investments in the oil industry. Although the results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, also called in the oil industry as downstream, the methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry. - Highlights: • We measure statistically the real value of an investment project. • We present the reasons for the mismatch between planned and executed investments. • We obtain a stochastic process to generate scenarios for oil industry investments. • Results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, downstream. • The methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry
Discerning connectivity from dynamics in climate networks
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Paluš, Milan; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Vejmelka, Martin
2011-01-01
Roč. 18, č. 5 (2011), s. 751-763 ISSN 1023-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : complex networks * climate dynamics * connectivity * North Atlantic Oscillation * solar activity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.597, year: 2011
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stanimirović Ivan
2009-01-01
Full Text Available We introduce a heuristic method for the single resource constrained project scheduling problem, based on the dynamic programming solution of the knapsack problem. This method schedules projects with one type of resources, in the non-preemptive case: once started an activity is not interrupted and runs to completion. We compare the implementation of this method with well-known heuristic scheduling method, called Minimum Slack First (known also as Gray-Kidd algorithm, as well as with Microsoft Project.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Lawrence, Deborah
2016-01-01
The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171km2 in size...... catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme...... flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kendrew, S.; Robitaille, T. P.; Simpson, R.; Lintott, C. J.; Bressert, E.; Povich, M. S.; Sherman, R.; Schawinski, K.; Wolf-Chase, G.
2012-01-01
The Milky Way Project citizen science initiative recently increased the number of known infrared bubbles in the inner Galactic plane by an order of magnitude compared to previous studies. We present a detailed statistical analysis of this data set with the Red MSX Source (RMS) catalog of massive young stellar sources to investigate the association of these bubbles with massive star formation. We particularly address the question of massive triggered star formation near infrared bubbles. We find a strong positional correlation of massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) and H II regions with Milky Way Project bubbles at separations of <2 bubble radii. As bubble sizes increase, a statistically significant overdensity of massive young sources emerges in the region of the bubble rims, possibly indicating the occurrence of triggered star formation. Based on numbers of bubble-associated RMS sources, we find that 67% ± 3% of MYSOs and (ultra-)compact H II regions appear to be associated with a bubble. We estimate that approximately 22% ± 2% of massive young stars may have formed as a result of feedback from expanding H II regions. Using MYSO-bubble correlations, we serendipitously recovered the location of the recently discovered massive cluster Mercer 81, suggesting the potential of such analyses for discovery of heavily extincted distant clusters.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kendrew, S.; Robitaille, T. P. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Simpson, R.; Lintott, C. J. [Department of Astrophysics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Bressert, E. [School of Physics, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter EX4 4QL (United Kingdom); Povich, M. S. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, 525 Davey Laboratory, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Sherman, R. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 S. Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Schawinski, K. [Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Yale University, P.O. Box 208121, New Haven, CT 06520 (United States); Wolf-Chase, G., E-mail: kendrew@mpia.de [Astronomy Department, Adler Planetarium, 1300 S. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605 (United States)
2012-08-10
The Milky Way Project citizen science initiative recently increased the number of known infrared bubbles in the inner Galactic plane by an order of magnitude compared to previous studies. We present a detailed statistical analysis of this data set with the Red MSX Source (RMS) catalog of massive young stellar sources to investigate the association of these bubbles with massive star formation. We particularly address the question of massive triggered star formation near infrared bubbles. We find a strong positional correlation of massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) and H II regions with Milky Way Project bubbles at separations of <2 bubble radii. As bubble sizes increase, a statistically significant overdensity of massive young sources emerges in the region of the bubble rims, possibly indicating the occurrence of triggered star formation. Based on numbers of bubble-associated RMS sources, we find that 67% {+-} 3% of MYSOs and (ultra-)compact H II regions appear to be associated with a bubble. We estimate that approximately 22% {+-} 2% of massive young stars may have formed as a result of feedback from expanding H II regions. Using MYSO-bubble correlations, we serendipitously recovered the location of the recently discovered massive cluster Mercer 81, suggesting the potential of such analyses for discovery of heavily extincted distant clusters.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
MacKernan, Donal; Basios, Vasileios
2009-01-01
The statistical properties of chaotic Markov analytic maps and equivalent repellers are investigated through matrix representations of the Frobenius-Perron operator (U). The associated basis sets are constructed using Chebyshev functions and Markov partitions which can be tailored to examine statistical dynamical properties associated with observables having support over local regions or for example, about periodic orbits. The decay properties of corresponding time correlations functions are given by a analytic expression of the spectra of U which is expected to be valid for a much larger class of systems than that studied here. An explicit and general expression is also derived for the correction factor to the dynamical zeta functions occurring when analytic function spaces are not invariant under U.
Dierker, Lisa; Alexander, Jalen; Cooper, Jennifer L.; Selya, Arielle; Rose, Jennifer; Dasgupta, Nilanjana
2016-01-01
Introductory statistics needs innovative, evidence-based teaching practices that support and engage diverse students. To evaluate the success of a multidisciplinary, project-based course, we compared experiences of under-represented (URM) and non-underrepresented students in 4 years of the course. While URM students considered the material more…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chiba, Satoshi; Iwamoto, Osamu; Fukahori, Tokio; Niita, Koji; Maruyama, Toshiki; Maruyama, Tomoyuki; Iwamoto, Akira [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment
1997-03-01
The production cross sections of various fragments from proton-induced reactions on {sup 56}Fe and {sup 27}Al have been analyzed by the Quantum Molecular Dynamics (QMD) plus Statistical Decay Model (SDM). It was found that the mass and charge distributions calculated with and without the statistical decay have very different shapes. These results also depend strongly on the impact parameter, showing an importance of the dynamical treatment as realized by the QMD approach. The calculated results were compared with experimental data in the energy region from 50 MeV to 5 GeV. The QMD+SDM calculation could reproduce the production cross sections of the light clusters and intermediate-mass to heavy fragments in a good accuracy. The production cross section of {sup 7}Be was, however, underpredicted by approximately 2 orders of magnitude, showing the necessity of another reaction mechanism not taken into account in the present model. (author)
Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farnad Nasirzadeh
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.
2013-01-01
This book offers a comprehensive picture of nonequilibrium phenomena in nanoscale systems. Written by internationally recognized experts in the field, this book strikes a balance between theory and experiment, and includes in-depth introductions to nonequilibrium fluctuation relations, nonlinear dynamics and transport, single molecule experiments, and molecular diffusion in nanopores. The authors explore the application of these concepts to nano- and biosystems by cross-linking key methods and ideas from nonequilibrium statistical physics, thermodynamics, stochastic theory, and dynamical s
Exploring Protein Structure and Dynamics through a Project-Oriented Biochemistry Laboratory Module
Lipchock, James M.; Ginther, Patrick S.; Douglas, Bonnie B.; Bird, Kelly E.; Loria, J. Patrick
2017-01-01
Here, we present a 10-week project-oriented laboratory module designed to provide a course-based undergraduate research experience in biochemistry that emphasizes the importance of biomolecular structure and dynamics in enzyme function. This module explores the impact of mutagenesis on an important active site loop for a biomedically-relevant…
Statistical modelling of subdiffusive dynamics in the cytoplasm of living cells: A FARIMA approach
Burnecki, K.; Muszkieta, M.; Sikora, G.; Weron, A.
2012-04-01
Golding and Cox (Phys. Rev. Lett., 96 (2006) 098102) tracked the motion of individual fluorescently labelled mRNA molecules inside live E. coli cells. They found that in the set of 23 trajectories from 3 different experiments, the automatically recognized motion is subdiffusive and published an intriguing microscopy video. Here, we extract the corresponding time series from this video by image segmentation method and present its detailed statistical analysis. We find that this trajectory was not included in the data set already studied and has different statistical properties. It is best fitted by a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) process with the normal-inverse Gaussian (NIG) noise and the negative memory. In contrast to earlier studies, this shows that the fractional Brownian motion is not the best model for the dynamics documented in this video.
Deviation rectification for dynamic measurement of rail wear based on coordinate sets projection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Chao; Ma, Ziji; Li, Yanfu; Liu, Hongli; Zeng, Jiuzhen; Jin, Tan
2017-01-01
Dynamic measurement of rail wear using a laser imaging system suffers from random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor which cause distorted rail profiles. In this paper, a simple and effective method for rectifying profile deviation is presented to address this issue. There are two main steps: profile recognition and distortion calibration. According to the constant camera and projector parameters, efficient recognition of measured profiles is achieved by analyzing the geometric difference between normal profiles and distorted ones. For a distorted profile, by constructing coordinate sets projecting from it to the standard one on triple projecting primitives, including the rail head inner line, rail waist curve and rail jaw, iterative extrinsic camera parameter self-compensation is implemented. The distortion is calibrated by projecting the distorted profile onto the x – y plane of a measuring coordinate frame, which is parallel to the rail cross section, to eliminate the influence of random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor. As well as evaluating the implementation with comprehensive experiments, we also compare our method with other published works. The results exhibit the effectiveness and superiority of our method for the dynamic measurement of rail wear. (paper)
Deviation rectification for dynamic measurement of rail wear based on coordinate sets projection
Wang, Chao; Ma, Ziji; Li, Yanfu; Zeng, Jiuzhen; Jin, Tan; Liu, Hongli
2017-10-01
Dynamic measurement of rail wear using a laser imaging system suffers from random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor which cause distorted rail profiles. In this paper, a simple and effective method for rectifying profile deviation is presented to address this issue. There are two main steps: profile recognition and distortion calibration. According to the constant camera and projector parameters, efficient recognition of measured profiles is achieved by analyzing the geometric difference between normal profiles and distorted ones. For a distorted profile, by constructing coordinate sets projecting from it to the standard one on triple projecting primitives, including the rail head inner line, rail waist curve and rail jaw, iterative extrinsic camera parameter self-compensation is implemented. The distortion is calibrated by projecting the distorted profile onto the x-y plane of a measuring coordinate frame, which is parallel to the rail cross section, to eliminate the influence of random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor. As well as evaluating the implementation with comprehensive experiments, we also compare our method with other published works. The results exhibit the effectiveness and superiority of our method for the dynamic measurement of rail wear.
Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results From the PROGRESS Project.
Balikhin, M. A.; Arber, T. D.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Walker, S. N.
2017-12-01
Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results from the PROGRESS Project. The overall goal of the PROGRESS project, funded in frame of EU Horizon2020 programme, is to combine first principles based models with the systems science methodologies to achieve reliable forecasts of the geo-space particle radiation environment.The PROGRESS incorporates three themes : The propagation of the solar wind to L1, Forecast of geomagnetic indices, and forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons within the magnetosphere. One of the important aspects of the PROGRESS project is the development of statistical wave models for magnetospheric waves that affect the dynamics of energetic electrons such as lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise. The error reduction ratio (ERR) concept has been used to optimise the set of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters for organisation of statistical wave models for these emissions. The resulting sets of parameters and statistical wave models will be presented and discussed. However the ERR analysis also indicates that the combination of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters accounts for only part of the variance of the emissions under investigation (lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise). In addition, advances in the forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons, exploiting empirical models and the first principles IMPTAM model achieved by the PROGRESS project is presented.
Computational statistics handbook with Matlab
Martinez, Wendy L
2007-01-01
Prefaces Introduction What Is Computational Statistics? An Overview of the Book Probability Concepts Introduction Probability Conditional Probability and Independence Expectation Common Distributions Sampling Concepts Introduction Sampling Terminology and Concepts Sampling Distributions Parameter Estimation Empirical Distribution Function Generating Random Variables Introduction General Techniques for Generating Random Variables Generating Continuous Random Variables Generating Discrete Random Variables Exploratory Data Analysis Introduction Exploring Univariate Data Exploring Bivariate and Trivariate Data Exploring Multidimensional Data Finding Structure Introduction Projecting Data Principal Component Analysis Projection Pursuit EDA Independent Component Analysis Grand Tour Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction Monte Carlo Methods for Inferential Statistics Introduction Classical Inferential Statistics Monte Carlo Methods for Inferential Statist...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eliazar, Iddo
2017-01-01
The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: eliazar@post.tau.ac.il
2017-05-15
The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.
Xu, Jin; Li, Zheng; Li, Shuliang; Zhang, Yanyan
2015-07-01
There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tang Shaojie; Tang Xiangyang
2012-01-01
Purposes: The suppression of noise in x-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging is of clinical relevance for diagnostic image quality and the potential for radiation dose saving. Toward this purpose, statistical noise reduction methods in either the image or projection domain have been proposed, which employ a multiscale decomposition to enhance the performance of noise suppression while maintaining image sharpness. Recognizing the advantages of noise suppression in the projection domain, the authors propose a projection domain multiscale penalized weighted least squares (PWLS) method, in which the angular sampling rate is explicitly taken into consideration to account for the possible variation of interview sampling rate in advanced clinical or preclinical applications. Methods: The projection domain multiscale PWLS method is derived by converting an isotropic diffusion partial differential equation in the image domain into the projection domain, wherein a multiscale decomposition is carried out. With adoption of the Markov random field or soft thresholding objective function, the projection domain multiscale PWLS method deals with noise at each scale. To compensate for the degradation in image sharpness caused by the projection domain multiscale PWLS method, an edge enhancement is carried out following the noise reduction. The performance of the proposed method is experimentally evaluated and verified using the projection data simulated by computer and acquired by a CT scanner. Results: The preliminary results show that the proposed projection domain multiscale PWLS method outperforms the projection domain single-scale PWLS method and the image domain multiscale anisotropic diffusion method in noise reduction. In addition, the proposed method can preserve image sharpness very well while the occurrence of “salt-and-pepper” noise and mosaic artifacts can be avoided. Conclusions: Since the interview sampling rate is taken into account in the projection domain
Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches
Anagnostopoulou, Christina
2017-07-01
Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961-1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Purdy, C.; Gerdes, K.; Aljayoushi, J.; Kaback, D.; Ivory, T.
2002-01-01
Since 1998, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management has funded the Accelerated Site Technology Deployment (ASTD) Program to expedite deployment of alternative technologies that can save time and money for the environmental cleanup at DOE sites across the nation. The ASTD program has accelerated more than one hundred deployments of new technologies under 76 projects that focus on a broad spectrum of EM problems. More than 25 environmental restoration projects have been initiated to solve the following types of problems: characterization of the subsurface using chemical, radiological, geophysical, and statistical methods; treatment of groundwater contaminated with DNAPLs, metals, or radionuclides; and other projects such as landfill covers, purge water management systems, and treatment of explosives-contaminated soils. One of the major goals of the ASTD Program is to deploy a new technology or process at multiple DOE sites. ASTD projects are encouraged to identify subsequent deployments at other sites. Some of the projects that have successfully deployed technologies at multiple sites focusing on cleanup of contaminated groundwater include: Permeable Reactive Barriers (Monticello, Rocky Flats, and Kansas City), treating uranium and organics in groundwater; and Dynamic Underground Stripping (Portsmouth, and Savannah River), thermally treating DNAPL source zones. Each year more and more new technologies and approaches are being used at DOE sites due to the ASTD program. DOE sites are sharing their successes and communicating lessons learned so that the new technologies can replace the baseline or standard approaches at DOE sites, thus expediting cleanup and saving money
Null, Cynthia H.
2009-01-01
In June 2004, the June Space Flight Leadership Council (SFLC) assigned an action to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) and External Tank (ET) project jointly to characterize the available dataset [of defect sizes from dissections of foam], identify resultant limitations to statistical treatment of ET as-built foam as part of the overall thermal protection system (TPS) certification, and report to the Program Requirements Change Board (PRCB) and SFLC in September 2004. The NESC statistics team was formed to assist the ET statistics group in August 2004. The NESC's conclusions are presented in this report.
Statistical benchmark for BosonSampling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walschaers, Mattia; Mayer, Klaus; Buchleitner, Andreas; Kuipers, Jack; Urbina, Juan-Diego; Richter, Klaus; Tichy, Malte Christopher
2016-01-01
Boson samplers—set-ups that generate complex many-particle output states through the transmission of elementary many-particle input states across a multitude of mutually coupled modes—promise the efficient quantum simulation of a classically intractable computational task, and challenge the extended Church–Turing thesis, one of the fundamental dogmas of computer science. However, as in all experimental quantum simulations of truly complex systems, one crucial problem remains: how to certify that a given experimental measurement record unambiguously results from enforcing the claimed dynamics, on bosons, fermions or distinguishable particles? Here we offer a statistical solution to the certification problem, identifying an unambiguous statistical signature of many-body quantum interference upon transmission across a multimode, random scattering device. We show that statistical analysis of only partial information on the output state allows to characterise the imparted dynamics through particle type-specific features of the emerging interference patterns. The relevant statistical quantifiers are classically computable, define a falsifiable benchmark for BosonSampling, and reveal distinctive features of many-particle quantum dynamics, which go much beyond mere bunching or anti-bunching effects. (fast track communication)
US Urban Forest Statistics, Values, and Projections
David J Nowak; Eric J. Greenfield
2018-01-01
U.S. urban land increased from 2.6% (57.9 million acres) in 2000 to 3.0% (68.0 million acres) in 2010. States with the greatest amount of urban growth were in the South/Southeast (TX, FL, NC, GA and SC). Between 2010 and 2060, urban land is projected to increase another 95.5 million acres to 163.1 million acres (8.6%) with 18 states projected to have an increase of...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Ming; Mai Zhenhong; Li Jianhua; Li Chaorong; Cui Shufan
1995-01-01
Based on the statistical theory of X-ray dynamical diffraction for thin films, the mosaicity of three types of semiconductor epitaxic layers has been investigated by analyzing their rocking curves by the X-ray double-crystal diffraction method. It is shown that the statistical theory can provide quantitative information on the mosaicity of the epitaxic layers such as the mean size and the mean disorientation of mosaic blocks in the layers. Some misunderstandings in interpreting experimental data are cleared up by taking into account the effect of diffuse scattering. It is emphasized that attempts to obtain structural parameters of specimens from their rocking curves by means of the Takagi-Taupin equations for coherent fields only are not strictly correct since diffuse scattering causes additional changes in the tails of the rocking curves. (orig.)
Hellström, Cecilia; Chen, Deliang
2003-11-01
A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.
Distinguish Dynamic Basic Blocks by Structural Statistical Testing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petit, Matthieu; Gotlieb, Arnaud
Statistical testing aims at generating random test data that respect selected probabilistic properties. A distribution probability is associated with the program input space in order to achieve statistical test purpose: to test the most frequent usage of software or to maximize the probability of...... control flow path) during the test data selection. We implemented this algorithm in a statistical test data generator for Java programs. A first experimental validation is presented...
Compound speckles and their statistical and dynamical properties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hanson, Steen Grüner; Jakobsen, Michael Linde; Skov Hansen, Rene
2008-01-01
Two issues will be treated in this presentation, both focusing on gaining a deeper understanding of dynamic speckles, aiming at the use for probing dynamical properties of scattering structures. The first issue to be addressed is the dynamics of speckles arising from illuminating a solid surface...
Statistical and dynamical properties of a dissipative kicked rotator
Oliveira, Diego F. M.; Leonel, Edson D.
2014-11-01
Some dynamical and statistical properties for a conservative as well as the dissipative problem of relativistic particles in a waveguide are considered. For the first time, two different types of dissipation namely: (i) due to viscosity and; (ii) due to inelastic collision (upon the kick) are considered individually and acting together. For the first case, and contrary to what is expected for the original Zaslavsky’s relativistic model, we show there is a critical parameter where a transition from local to global chaos occurs. On the other hand, after considering the introduction of dissipation also on the kick, the structure of the phase space changes in the sense that chaotic and periodic attractors appear. We study also the chaotic sea by using scaling arguments and we proposed an analytical argument to reinforce the validity of the scaling exponents obtained numerically. In principle such an approach can be extended to any two-dimensional map. Finally, based on the Lyapunov exponent, we show that the parameter space exhibits infinite families of self-similar shrimp-shape structures, corresponding to periodic attractors, embedded in a large region corresponding to chaotic attractors.
Symmetry breaking in the opinion dynamics of a multi-group project organization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu Zhen-Tao; Zhou Jing; Chen Xing-Guang; Li Ping
2012-01-01
A bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics in multi-group projects is presented in which each group's opinion evolution is driven by two types of forces: (i) the group's cohesive force which tends to restore the opinion back towards the initial status because of its company culture; and (ii) nonlinear coupling forces with other groups which attempt to bring opinions closer due to collaboration willingness. Bifurcation analysis for the case of a two-group project shows a cusp catastrophe phenomenon and three distinctive evolutionary regimes, i.e., a deadlock regime, a convergence regime, and a bifurcation regime in opinion dynamics. The critical value of initial discord between the two groups is derived to discriminate which regime the opinion evolution belongs to. In the case of a three-group project with a symmetric social network, both bifurcation analysis and simulation results demonstrate that if each pair has a high initial discord, instead of symmetrically converging to consensus with the increase of coupling scale as expected by Gabbay's result (Physica A 378 (2007) p. 125 Fig. 5), project organization (PO) may be split into two distinct clusters because of the symmetry breaking phenomenon caused by pitchfork bifurcations, which urges that apart from divergence in participants' interests, nonlinear interaction can also make conflict inevitable in the PO. The effects of two asymmetric level parameters are tested in order to explore the ways of inducing dominant opinion in the whole PO. It is found that the strong influence imposed by a leader group with firm faith on the flexible and open minded follower groups can promote the formation of a positive dominant opinion in the PO
Symmetry breaking in the opinion dynamics of a multi-group project organization
Zhu, Zhen-Tao; Zhou, Jing; Li, Ping; Chen, Xing-Guang
2012-10-01
A bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics in multi-group projects is presented in which each group's opinion evolution is driven by two types of forces: (i) the group's cohesive force which tends to restore the opinion back towards the initial status because of its company culture; and (ii) nonlinear coupling forces with other groups which attempt to bring opinions closer due to collaboration willingness. Bifurcation analysis for the case of a two-group project shows a cusp catastrophe phenomenon and three distinctive evolutionary regimes, i.e., a deadlock regime, a convergence regime, and a bifurcation regime in opinion dynamics. The critical value of initial discord between the two groups is derived to discriminate which regime the opinion evolution belongs to. In the case of a three-group project with a symmetric social network, both bifurcation analysis and simulation results demonstrate that if each pair has a high initial discord, instead of symmetrically converging to consensus with the increase of coupling scale as expected by Gabbay's result (Physica A 378 (2007) p. 125 Fig. 5), project organization (PO) may be split into two distinct clusters because of the symmetry breaking phenomenon caused by pitchfork bifurcations, which urges that apart from divergence in participants' interests, nonlinear interaction can also make conflict inevitable in the PO. The effects of two asymmetric level parameters are tested in order to explore the ways of inducing dominant opinion in the whole PO. It is found that the strong influence imposed by a leader group with firm faith on the flexible and open minded follower groups can promote the formation of a positive dominant opinion in the PO.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yun-zhi Zou
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A new class of generalized dynamical systems involving generalized f-projection operators is introduced and studied in Banach spaces. By using the fixed-point theorem due to Nadler, the equilibrium points set of this class of generalized global dynamical systems is proved to be nonempty and closed under some suitable conditions. Moreover, the solutions set of the systems with set-valued perturbation is showed to be continuous with respect to the initial value.
Variance in parametric images: direct estimation from parametric projections
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maguire, R.P.; Leenders, K.L.; Spyrou, N.M.
2000-01-01
Recent work has shown that it is possible to apply linear kinetic models to dynamic projection data in PET in order to calculate parameter projections. These can subsequently be back-projected to form parametric images - maps of parameters of physiological interest. Critical to the application of these maps, to test for significant changes between normal and pathophysiology, is an assessment of the statistical uncertainty. In this context, parametric images also include simple integral images from, e.g., [O-15]-water used to calculate statistical parametric maps (SPMs). This paper revisits the concept of parameter projections and presents a more general formulation of the parameter projection derivation as well as a method to estimate parameter variance in projection space, showing which analysis methods (models) can be used. Using simulated pharmacokinetic image data we show that a method based on an analysis in projection space inherently calculates the mathematically rigorous pixel variance. This results in an estimation which is as accurate as either estimating variance in image space during model fitting, or estimation by comparison across sets of parametric images - as might be done between individuals in a group pharmacokinetic PET study. The method based on projections has, however, a higher computational efficiency, and is also shown to be more precise, as reflected in smooth variance distribution images when compared to the other methods. (author)
Final Project Report: Data Locality Enhancement of Dynamic Simulations for Exascale Computing
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shen, Xipeng [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)
2016-04-27
The goal of this project is to develop a set of techniques and software tools to enhance the matching between memory accesses in dynamic simulations and the prominent features of modern and future manycore systems, alleviating the memory performance issues for exascale computing. In the first three years, the PI and his group have achieves some significant progress towards the goal, producing a set of novel techniques for improving the memory performance and data locality in manycore systems, yielding 18 conference and workshop papers and 4 journal papers and graduating 6 Ph.Ds. This report summarizes the research results of this project through that period.
Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.
2009-02-01
We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burkholder, Michael B.; Litster, Shawn
2016-01-01
In this study, we analyze the stability of two-phase flow regimes and their transitions using chaotic and fractal statistics, and we report new measurements of dynamic two-phase pressure drop hysteresis that is related to flow regime stability and channel water content. Two-phase flow dynamics are relevant to a variety of real-world systems, and quantifying transient two-phase flow phenomena is important for efficient design. We recorded two-phase (air and water) pressure drops and flow images in a microchannel under both steady and transient conditions. Using Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents to characterize the steady-state pressure fluctuations, we develop a new, measurable regime identification criteria based on the dynamic stability of the two-phase pressure signal. We also applied a new experimental technique by continuously cycling the air flow rate to study dynamic hysteresis in two-phase pressure drops, which is separate from steady-state hysteresis and can be used to understand two-phase flow development time scales. Using recorded images of the two-phase flow, we show that the capacitive dynamic hysteresis is related to channel water content and flow regime stability. The mixed-wettability microchannel and in-channel water introduction used in this study simulate a polymer electrolyte fuel cell cathode air flow channel.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Burkholder, Michael B.; Litster, Shawn, E-mail: litster@andrew.cmu.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213 (United States)
2016-05-15
In this study, we analyze the stability of two-phase flow regimes and their transitions using chaotic and fractal statistics, and we report new measurements of dynamic two-phase pressure drop hysteresis that is related to flow regime stability and channel water content. Two-phase flow dynamics are relevant to a variety of real-world systems, and quantifying transient two-phase flow phenomena is important for efficient design. We recorded two-phase (air and water) pressure drops and flow images in a microchannel under both steady and transient conditions. Using Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents to characterize the steady-state pressure fluctuations, we develop a new, measurable regime identification criteria based on the dynamic stability of the two-phase pressure signal. We also applied a new experimental technique by continuously cycling the air flow rate to study dynamic hysteresis in two-phase pressure drops, which is separate from steady-state hysteresis and can be used to understand two-phase flow development time scales. Using recorded images of the two-phase flow, we show that the capacitive dynamic hysteresis is related to channel water content and flow regime stability. The mixed-wettability microchannel and in-channel water introduction used in this study simulate a polymer electrolyte fuel cell cathode air flow channel.
Null lifts and projective dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cariglia, Marco, E-mail: marco@iceb.ufop.br
2015-11-15
We describe natural Hamiltonian systems using projective geometry. The null lift procedure endows the tangent bundle with a projective structure where the null Hamiltonian is identified with a projective conic and induces a Weyl geometry. Projective transformations generate a set of known and new dualities between Hamiltonian systems, as for example the phenomenon of coupling-constant metamorphosis. We conclude outlining how this construction can be extended to the quantum case for Eisenhart–Duval lifts.
Nick, Todd G
2007-01-01
Statistics is defined by the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) thesaurus as the science and art of collecting, summarizing, and analyzing data that are subject to random variation. The two broad categories of summarizing and analyzing data are referred to as descriptive and inferential statistics. This chapter considers the science and art of summarizing data where descriptive statistics and graphics are used to display data. In this chapter, we discuss the fundamentals of descriptive statistics, including describing qualitative and quantitative variables. For describing quantitative variables, measures of location and spread, for example the standard deviation, are presented along with graphical presentations. We also discuss distributions of statistics, for example the variance, as well as the use of transformations. The concepts in this chapter are useful for uncovering patterns within the data and for effectively presenting the results of a project.
Dynamic SPECT reconstruction from few projections: a sparsity enforced matrix factorization approach
Ding, Qiaoqiao; Zan, Yunlong; Huang, Qiu; Zhang, Xiaoqun
2015-02-01
The reconstruction of dynamic images from few projection data is a challenging problem, especially when noise is present and when the dynamic images are vary fast. In this paper, we propose a variational model, sparsity enforced matrix factorization (SEMF), based on low rank matrix factorization of unknown images and enforced sparsity constraints for representing both coefficients and bases. The proposed model is solved via an alternating iterative scheme for which each subproblem is convex and involves the efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The convergence of the overall alternating scheme for the nonconvex problem relies upon the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz property, recently studied by Attouch et al (2010 Math. Oper. Res. 35 438) and Attouch et al (2013 Math. Program. 137 91). Finally our proof-of-concept simulation on 2D dynamic images shows the advantage of the proposed method compared to conventional methods.
Small-world topology of functional connectivity in randomly connected dynamical systems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Paluš, Milan
2012-01-01
Roč. 22, č. 3 (2012), art no 033107 ISSN 1054-1500 R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : graph theory * nonlinear dynamical systems * small-world networks Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.188, year: 2012
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ren, Qingguo; Dewan, Sheilesh Kumar; Li, Ming; Li, Jianying; Mao, Dingbiao; Wang, Zhenglei; Hua, Yanqing
2012-01-01
Purpose: To compare image quality and visualization of normal structures and lesions in brain computed tomography (CT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) and filtered back projection (FBP) reconstruction techniques in different X-ray tube current–time products. Materials and methods: In this IRB-approved prospective study, forty patients (nineteen men, twenty-one women; mean age 69.5 ± 11.2 years) received brain scan at different tube current–time products (300 and 200 mAs) in 64-section multi-detector CT (GE, Discovery CT750 HD). Images were reconstructed with FBP and four levels of ASIR-FBP blending. Two radiologists (please note that our hospital is renowned for its geriatric medicine department, and these two radiologists are more experienced in chronic cerebral vascular disease than in neoplastic disease, so this research did not contain cerebral tumors but as a discussion) assessed all the reconstructed images for visibility of normal structures, lesion conspicuity, image contrast and diagnostic confidence in a blinded and randomized manner. Volume CT dose index (CTDI vol ) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the image qualities at 200 mAs with 50% ASIR blending technique and 300 mAs with FBP technique (p > .05). While between the image qualities at 200 mAs with FBP and 300 mAs with FBP technique a statistically significant difference (p < .05) was found. Conclusion: ASIR provided same image quality and diagnostic ability in brain imaging with greater than 30% dose reduction compared with FBP reconstruction technique
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ren, Qingguo, E-mail: renqg83@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Dewan, Sheilesh Kumar, E-mail: sheilesh_d1@hotmail.com [Department of Geriatrics, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Li, Ming, E-mail: minli77@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Li, Jianying, E-mail: Jianying.Li@med.ge.com [CT Imaging Research Center, GE Healthcare China, Beijing (China); Mao, Dingbiao, E-mail: maodingbiao74@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Wang, Zhenglei, E-mail: Williswang_doc@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Radiology, Shanghai Electricity Hospital, Shanghai 200050 (China); Hua, Yanqing, E-mail: cjr.huayanqing@vip.163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China)
2012-10-15
Purpose: To compare image quality and visualization of normal structures and lesions in brain computed tomography (CT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) and filtered back projection (FBP) reconstruction techniques in different X-ray tube current–time products. Materials and methods: In this IRB-approved prospective study, forty patients (nineteen men, twenty-one women; mean age 69.5 ± 11.2 years) received brain scan at different tube current–time products (300 and 200 mAs) in 64-section multi-detector CT (GE, Discovery CT750 HD). Images were reconstructed with FBP and four levels of ASIR-FBP blending. Two radiologists (please note that our hospital is renowned for its geriatric medicine department, and these two radiologists are more experienced in chronic cerebral vascular disease than in neoplastic disease, so this research did not contain cerebral tumors but as a discussion) assessed all the reconstructed images for visibility of normal structures, lesion conspicuity, image contrast and diagnostic confidence in a blinded and randomized manner. Volume CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the image qualities at 200 mAs with 50% ASIR blending technique and 300 mAs with FBP technique (p > .05). While between the image qualities at 200 mAs with FBP and 300 mAs with FBP technique a statistically significant difference (p < .05) was found. Conclusion: ASIR provided same image quality and diagnostic ability in brain imaging with greater than 30% dose reduction compared with FBP reconstruction technique.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jun Zhou
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Purpose: As one of the most important overhead capital of urban economics and social development, the sustainable development of urban infrastructure is becoming a key issue of prosperous society growing. The purpose of this paper is to establish a basic model to analysis certain infrastructure project’s sustainable construction and operation. Design/methodology/approach: System dynamics is an effective stimulation method and tool to deal with such complex, dynamics, nonlinear systems, which could be used in analyzing and evaluating all aspects of infrastructure sustainability internally and externally. In this paper, the system is divided into four subsystems and 12 main impact indicators. Through setting the boundary and other basic hypothesis, this paper designs the basic causal loop diagrams and stock & flow diagrams to describe the relationship between variables and establish a quantifiable structure for the system. Findings: Adopting a sewerage treatment in China as a case to test our model, we could conclude that the model of internal sustainable subsystem is reasonable. However, this model is a basic model, and it need to be specific designed for the certain project due to the diversity of infrastructure types and the unique conditions of each projects. Originality/value: System Dynamics (SD is widely used in the study of sustainable development and has plentiful research achievements from macro perspective but few studies in the microcosmic project systems. This paper focuses on the unique characteristics of urban infrastructure in China and selects infrastructure project which is based on micro-system discussion. The model we designed has certain practical significance in policy setting, operation monitoring and adjustment of the urban projects with high rationality and accuracy.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joao Alberto Arantes do Amaral
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this case study we discuss the dynamics that drive a free-of-charge project-based learning extension course. We discuss the lessons learned in the course, “Laboratory of Social Projects.” The course aimed to teach project management skills to the participants. It was conducted from August to November of 2015, at Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp, Osasco Campus, Brazil. The course had 72 participants (41 community members and 31 university students. The participants worked in teams of four members (on average and developed 13 projects on behalf of eight NGOs that help people in need. In our research, we followed a mixed methods approach, using unstructured questionnaires and project reports as sources of information. We made use of system thinking analysis to reveal the dynamics that unfolded during the course. Our main findings are: 1 free-of-charge extension courses can be much more challenging to manage than traditional courses; the bureaucracy of getting the university’s approval and problems related to dropouts are issues to consider; 2 the workload of the professors involved can be substantially higher than the workload of similar regular courses; 3 the use of project-based learning techniques can be very effective; 4 the courses can provide a very rich experience to the participants, promoting intense knowledge-sharing among all involved.
Takahashi, Masahiro; Kimura, Fumiko; Umezawa, Tatsuya; Watanabe, Yusuke; Ogawa, Harumi
2016-01-01
Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) has been used to reduce radiation dose in cardiac computed tomography. However, change of image parameters by ASIR as compared to filtered back projection (FBP) may influence quantification of coronary calcium. To investigate the influence of ASIR on calcium quantification in comparison to FBP. In 352 patients, CT images were reconstructed using FBP alone, FBP combined with ASIR 30%, 50%, 70%, and ASIR 100% based on the same raw data. Image noise, plaque density, Agatston scores and calcium volumes were compared among the techniques. Image noise, Agatston score, and calcium volume decreased significantly with ASIR compared to FBP (each P ASIR reduced Agatston score by 10.5% to 31.0%. In calcified plaques both of patients and a phantom, ASIR decreased maximum CT values and calcified plaque size. In comparison to FBP, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) may significantly decrease Agatston scores and calcium volumes. Copyright © 2016 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Aakesson, O. [Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)
1998-08-01
Recent proxy data obtained from ice core measurements, dendrochronology and valley glaciers provide important information on the evolution of the regional or local climate. General circulation models integrated over a long period of time could help to understand the (external and internal) forcing mechanisms of natural climate variability. For a systematic interpretation of in situ paleo proxy records, a combined method of dynamical and statistical modeling is proposed. Local 'paleo records' can be simulated from GCM output by first undertaking a model-consistent statistical downscaling and then using a process-based forward modeling approach to obtain the behavior of valley glaciers and the growth of trees under specific conditions. The simulated records can be compared to actual proxy records in order to investigate whether e.g. the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced by models and to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy records (with the main focus on the last millennium) can be represented. For statistical downscaling to local weather conditions, a multiple linear forward regression model is used. Daily sets of observed weather station data and various large-scale predictors at 7 pressure levels obtained from ECMWF reanalyses are used for development of the model. Daily data give the closest and most robust relationships due to the strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns. For some local variables, the performance of the model can be further increased by developing seasonal specific statistical relationships. The model is validated using both independent and restricted predictor data sets. The model is applied to a long integration of a mixed layer GCM experiment simulating pre-industrial climate variability. The dynamical-statistical local GCM output within a region around Nigardsbreen glacier, Norway is compared to nearby observed station data for the period 1868-1993. Patterns of observed
Li, Y.; Kirchengast, G.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Norman, R.; Yuan, Y. B.; Fritzer, J.; Schwaerz, M.; Zhang, K.
2015-08-01
We introduce a new dynamic statistical optimization algorithm to initialize ionosphere-corrected bending angles of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based radio occultation (RO) measurements. The new algorithm estimates background and observation error covariance matrices with geographically varying uncertainty profiles and realistic global-mean correlation matrices. The error covariance matrices estimated by the new approach are more accurate and realistic than in simplified existing approaches and can therefore be used in statistical optimization to provide optimal bending angle profiles for high-altitude initialization of the subsequent Abel transform retrieval of refractivity. The new algorithm is evaluated against the existing Wegener Center Occultation Processing System version 5.6 (OPSv5.6) algorithm, using simulated data on two test days from January and July 2008 and real observed CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) measurements from the complete months of January and July 2008. The following is achieved for the new method's performance compared to OPSv5.6: (1) significant reduction of random errors (standard deviations) of optimized bending angles down to about half of their size or more; (2) reduction of the systematic differences in optimized bending angles for simulated MetOp data; (3) improved retrieval of refractivity and temperature profiles; and (4) realistically estimated global-mean correlation matrices and realistic uncertainty fields for the background and observations. Overall the results indicate high suitability for employing the new dynamic approach in the processing of long-term RO data into a reference climate record, leading to well-characterized and high-quality atmospheric profiles over the entire stratosphere.
Beam dynamics in THz dielectric-loaded waveguides for the AXSIS project
Vinatier, T.; Assmann, R. W.; Dorda, U.; Lemery, F.; Marchetti, B.
2017-07-01
In this paper, we investigate with ASTRA simulations the beam dynamics in dielectric-loaded waveguides driven by THz pulses, used as linac structure for the AXSIS project. We show that the bunch properties at the linac exit are very sensitive to the phase velocity of the THz pulse and are limited by the strong phase slippage of the bunch respective to it. We also show that the bunch properties are optimized when low frequencies (ERC Grant Agreement n. 609920.
Extending the Dynamic Range of a Time Projection Chamber
Estee, Justin; S πRIT Collaboration
2017-09-01
The use of Time Projection Chambers (TPCs) in intermediate heavy ion reactions faces some challenges in addressing the energy losses that range from the small energy loss of relativistic pions to the large energy loss of slow moving heavy ions. A typical trade-off can be to set the smallest desired signals to be well within the lower limits of the dynamic range of the electronics while allowing for some larger signals to saturate the electronics. With wire plane anodes, signals from readout pads further away from the track remain unsaturated and allow signals from tracks with saturated pads to be accurately recovered. We illustrate this technique using data from the SAMURAI Pion-Reconstruction and Ion-Tracker (S πRIT) TPC , which recently measured pions and light charged particles in collisions of Sn+Sn isotopes. Our method exploits knowledge of how the induced charge distribution depends on the distance from the track to smoothly extend dynamic range even when some of the pads in the track are saturated. To accommodate the analysis of slow moving heavy ions, we have extended the Bichsel energy loss distributions to handle slower moving ions as well. In this talk, I will discuss a combined approach which successfully extends the dynamic range of the TPC electronics. This work is supported by the U.S. DOE under Grant Nos. DE-SC0014530, DE-NA0002923, US NSF Grant No. PHY-1565546 and the Japan MEXT KAKENHI Grant No. 24105004.
Buzby, C. K.; Jona, K.
2009-12-01
The Watershed Dynamics project is a partnership between Northwestern University, the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science (CUAHSI), and the GLOBE Program (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment). The goal of the project is to develop inquiry-based educational materials that use authentic scientific data and analysis techniques to teach students about the watershed. The relationship between Northwestern, CUAHSI, and GLOBE allows each partner to contribute to the development of the project in the area of their expertise. Science researchers from CUAHSI share science content knowledge and data access through the development of their Hydrologic Information System (HIS). Curriculum developers at Northwestern write inquiry-based curriculum using GIS technology to access and analyze live data. The GLOBE Program is a worldwide hands-on, primary and secondary school-based science education program that provides teacher training opportunities to a network of teachers around the world. This partnership allows each partner to bring their area of expertise to the project and make the best use of one another's resources. The Watershed Dynamics project can serve as a model for future partnerships between the science and education communities. The Office of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Education Partnerships (OSEP) at Northwestern is a service organization that supports Northwestern researchers in developing proposals and implementing research projects that incorporate K-12 educational components, particularly in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). OSEP assists faculty with the development of sound plans for education and outreach that reflect current research on learning and educational reform and provides expertise in STEM education materials development, learning technologies, and professional development for K-12 teachers and facilitators in informal education institutions
Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tao, Yinghua [Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States); Chen, Guang-Hong [Department of Medical Physics and Department of Radiology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States); Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N. [Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States); Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A., E-mail: speidel@wisc.edu [Department of Medical Physics and Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States)
2014-07-15
Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937
Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tao, Yinghua; Chen, Guang-Hong; Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N.; Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A.
2014-01-01
Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937
From statistic mechanic outside equilibrium to transport equations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Balian, R.
1995-01-01
This lecture notes give a synthetic view on the foundations of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The purpose is to establish the transport equations satisfied by the relevant variables, starting from the microscopic dynamics. The Liouville representation is introduced, and a projection associates with any density operator , for given choice of relevant observables, a reduced density operator. An exact integral-differential equation for the relevant variables is thereby derived. A short-memory approximation then yields the transport equations. A relevant entropy which characterizes the coarseness of the description is associated with each level of description. As an illustration, the classical gas, with its three levels of description and with the Chapman-Enskog method, is discussed. (author). 3 figs., 5 refs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pemsel, Sofia; Wiewiora, Anna
This research investigates the development of project competence, and particularly, three related dynamic capabilities (shifting, adapting, leveraging) that contribute to project competence development. In doing so, we make use of the emerging literature on knowledge governance and theorize how...... of dynamic capability building promoting project competence development....
Generation and communication of dynamic maps using light projection
Busch, Steffen; Schlichting, Alexander; Brenner, Claus
2018-05-01
Many accidents are caused by miscommunication between traffic participants. Much research is being conducted in the area of car to car and car to infrastructure communication in order to eliminate this cause of accidents. How-ever, less attention is paid to the question how the behavior of a car can be communicated to pedestrians. Especially considering automated traffic, there is a lack of communication between cars and pedestrians. In this paper, we address the question how an autonomously driving car can inform pedestrians about its intentions. Especially in case of highly automated driving, making eye contact with a driver will give no clue about his or her intensions. We developed a prototype which continuously informs pedestrians about the intentions of the vehicle by projecting visual patterns onto the ground. Furthermore, the system communicates its interpretation of the observed situation to the pedestrians to warn them or to encourage them to perform a certain action. In order to communicate adaptively, the vehicle needs to develop an understanding of the dynamics of a city to know what to expect in certain situations and what speed is appropriate. To support this, we created a dynamic map, which estimates the number of pedestrians and cyclists in a certain area, which is then used to determine how `hazardous' the area is. This dynamic map is obtained from measurement data from many time instances, in contrast to the static car navigation maps, which are prevalent today. Apart from being used for communication purposes, the dynamic map can also influence the speed of a car, be it manually or autonomously driven. Adapting the speed in hazardous areas will avoid accidents where a car drives too fast, so that neither a human nor a computer-operated system would be able to stop in time.
Ingber, Lester; Nunez, Paul L
2011-02-01
The dynamic behavior of scalp potentials (EEG) is apparently due to some combination of global and local processes with important top-down and bottom-up interactions across spatial scales. In treating global mechanisms, we stress the importance of myelinated axon propagation delays and periodic boundary conditions in the cortical-white matter system, which is topologically close to a spherical shell. By contrast, the proposed local mechanisms are multiscale interactions between cortical columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers. A mechanical model consisting of a stretched string with attached nonlinear springs demonstrates the general idea. The string produces standing waves analogous to large-scale coherent EEG observed in some brain states. The attached springs are analogous to the smaller (mesoscopic) scale columnar dynamics. Generally, we expect string displacement and EEG at all scales to result from both global and local phenomena. A statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) calculates oscillatory behavior consistent with typical EEG, within columns, between neighboring columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers, across cortical regions via myelinated fibers, and also derives a string equation consistent with the global EEG model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Wavelet representation of the nuclear dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jouault, B.; Sebille, F.; Mota, V. de la.
1997-01-01
The study of transport phenomena in nuclear matter is addressed in a new approach named DYWAN, based on the projection methods of statistical physics and on the mathematical theory of wavelets. Strongly compressed representations of the nuclear systems are obtained with an accurate description of the wave functions and of their antisymmetrization. The results of the approach are illustrated for the ground state description as well as for the dissipative dynamics of nuclei at intermediate energies. (K.A.)
Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chih-Yuan; Diaz, Manuel; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui; Zhang, Hanxin
2014-01-08
The ideal quantum gas dynamics as manifested by the semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) equilibrium distribution derived in Wu et al. (Wu et al . 2012 Proc. R. Soc. A 468 , 1799-1823 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2011.0673)) is numerically studied for particles of three statistics. This anisotropic ES equilibrium distribution was derived using the maximum entropy principle and conserves the mass, momentum and energy, but differs from the standard Fermi-Dirac or Bose-Einstein distribution. The present numerical method combines the discrete velocity (or momentum) ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock-capturing method in physical space. A decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. Computations of two-dimensional Riemann problems are presented, and various contours of the quantities unique to this ES model are illustrated. The main flow features, such as shock waves, expansion waves and slip lines and their complex nonlinear interactions, are depicted and found to be consistent with existing calculations for a classical gas.
Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chih-Yuan; Diaz, Manuel; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui; Zhang, Hanxin
2014-01-01
The ideal quantum gas dynamics as manifested by the semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) equilibrium distribution derived in Wu et al. (Wu et al. 2012 Proc. R. Soc. A 468, 1799–1823 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2011.0673)) is numerically studied for particles of three statistics. This anisotropic ES equilibrium distribution was derived using the maximum entropy principle and conserves the mass, momentum and energy, but differs from the standard Fermi–Dirac or Bose–Einstein distribution. The present numerical method combines the discrete velocity (or momentum) ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock-capturing method in physical space. A decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. Computations of two-dimensional Riemann problems are presented, and various contours of the quantities unique to this ES model are illustrated. The main flow features, such as shock waves, expansion waves and slip lines and their complex nonlinear interactions, are depicted and found to be consistent with existing calculations for a classical gas. PMID:24399919
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabel M. Joao
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Projects thematically focused on simulation and statistical techniques for designing and optimizing chemical processes can be helpful in chemical engineering education in order to meet the needs of engineers. We argue for the relevance of the projects to improve a student centred approach and boost higher order thinking skills. This paper addresses the use of Aspen HYSYS by Portuguese chemical engineering master students to model distillation systems together with statistical experimental design techniques in order to optimize the systems highlighting the value of applying problem specific knowledge, simulation tools and sound statistical techniques. The paper summarizes the work developed by the students in order to model steady-state processes, dynamic processes and optimize the distillation systems emphasizing the benefits of the simulation tools and statistical techniques in helping the students learn how to learn. Students strengthened their domain specific knowledge and became motivated to rethink and improve chemical processes in their future chemical engineering profession. We discuss the main advantages of the methodology from the students’ and teachers perspective
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barnes, Cris William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Barber, John L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kober, Edward Martin [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lookman, Turab [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sandberg, Richard L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Shlachter, Jack S. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sheffield, Richard L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-02-23
The Matter-Radiation Interactions in Extremes project will build the experimental facility for the time-dependent control of dynamic material performance. An x-ray free electron laser at up to 42-keV fundamental energy and with photon pulses down to sub-nanosecond spacing, MaRIE 1.0 is designed to meet the challenges of time-dependent mesoscale materials science. Those challenges will be outlined, the techniques of coherent diffractive imaging and dynamic polycrystalline diffraction described, and the resulting requirements defined for a coherent x-ray source. The talk concludes with the role of the MaRIE project and science in the future.
Dairaku, K.
2017-12-01
The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.
Statistical properties of the linear σ model used in dynamical simulations of DCC formation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Randrup, J.
1997-01-01
The present work develops a simple approximate framework for initializing and interpreting dynamical simulations with the linear σ model exploring the formation of disoriented chiral condensates in high-energy collisions. By enclosing the system in a rectangular box with periodic boundary conditions, it is possible to decompose uniquely the chiral field into its spatial average (the order parameter) and its fluctuations (the quasiparticles) which can be treated in the Hartree approximation. The quasiparticle modes are then described approximately by Klein-Gordon dispersion relations containing an effective mass depending on both the temperature and the magnitude of the order parameter; their fluctuations are instrumental in shaping the effective potential governing the order parameter, and the emerging statistical description is thermodynamicially consistent. The temperature dependence of the statistical distribution of the order parameter is discussed, as is the behavior of the associated effective masses; as the system is cooled, the field fluctuations subside, causing a smooth change from the high-temperature phase in which chiral symmetry is approximately restored towards the normal phase. Of practical interest is the fact that the equilibrium field configurations can be sampled in a simple manner, thus providing a convenient means for specifying the initial conditions in dynamical simulations of the nonequilibrium relaxation of the chiral field; in particular, the correlation function is much more realistic than those emerging in previous initialization methods. It is illustrated how such samples remain approximately invariant under propagation by the unapproximated equation of motion over times that are long on the scale of interest, thereby suggesting that the treatment is sufficiently accurate to be of practical utility. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society
Shreeman, Paul K.
The statistical dynamical diffraction theory, which has been initially developed by late Kato remained in obscurity for many years due to intense and difficult mathematical treatment that proved to be quite challenging to implement and apply. With assistance of many authors in past (including Bushuev, Pavlov, Pungeov, and among the others), it became possible to implement this unique x-ray diffraction theory that combines the kinematical (ideally imperfect) and dynamical (the characteristically perfect diffraction) into a single system of equations controlled by two factors determined by long range order and correlation function within the structure. The first stage is completed by the publication (Shreeman and Matyi, J. Appl. Cryst., 43, 550 (2010)) demonstrating the functionality of this theory with new modifications hence called modified statistical dynamical diffraction theory (mSDDT). The foundation of the theory is also incorporated into this dissertation, and the next stage of testing the model against several ion-implanted SiGe materials has been published: (Shreeman and Matyi, physica status solidi (a)208(11), 2533-2538, 2011). The dissertation with all the previous results summarized, dives into comprehensive analysis of HRXRD analyses complete with several different types of reflections (symmetrical, asymmetrical and skewed geometry). The dynamical results (with almost no defects) are compared with well-known commercial software. The defective materials, to which commercially available modeling software falls short, is then characterized and discussed in depth. The results will exemplify the power of the novel approach in the modified statistical dynamical diffraction theory: Ability to detect and measure defective structures qualitatively and quantitatively. The analysis will be compared alongside with TEM data analysis for verification and confirmation. The application of this theory will accelerate the ability to quickly characterize the relaxed
Palamar, Todd
2009-01-01
The only hands-on book devoted to mastering Maya's dynamics tools for water, wind, and fire. In the world of animation, the ability to create realistic water, wind, and fire effects is key. Autodesk Maya software includes powerful dynamics tools that have been used to design breathtaking effects for movies, games, commercials, and short films. This professional guide teaches you the primary techniques you need to make the most of Maya's toolkit, so you'll soon be creating water that ripples, gusting winds and gentle breezes, and flickering fires the way Hollywood pros do. The one-of-a-kind boo
Multifragmentation: New dynamics or old statistics?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moretto, L.G.; Delis, D.N.; Wozniak, G.J.
1993-10-01
The understanding of the fission process as it has developed over the last fifty years has been applied to multifragmentation. Two salient aspects have been discovered: 1) a strong decoupling of the entrance and exit channels with the formation of well-characterized sources: 2) a statistical competition between two-, three-, four-, five-, ... n-body decays
Translation of an instrument. The US-Nordic Family Dynamics Nursing Research Project.
White, M; Elander, G
1992-01-01
Translation of a research instrument questionnaire from English to another language is analyzed in relation to principles involved, procedures followed, and problems confronted by nurse researchers from the US-Nordic Family Dynamics Nursing Research Project. Of paramount importance in translation are translation equivalency, congruent value orientation, and careful use of colloquialisms. It is important to recognize that copyright guidelines apply in the translation of an instrument. Approaches to solving instrument translation problems are discussed.
Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis
Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin
2015-02-01
The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.
Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Tadross, M
2017-10-01
Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.
2008-01-01
For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector
Introductory Statistics Education and the National Science Foundation
Hall, Megan R.; Rowell, Ginger Holmes
2008-01-01
This paper describes 27 National Science Foundation supported grant projects that have innovations designed to improve teaching and learning in introductory statistics courses. The characteristics of these projects are compared with the six recommendations given in the "Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE)…
Farrell, Brian; Ioannou, Petros; Nikolaidis, Marios-Andreas
2017-11-01
While linear non-normality underlies the mechanism of energy transfer from the externally driven flow to the perturbation field, nonlinearity is also known to play an essential role in sustaining turbulence. We report a study based on the statistical state dynamics of Couette flow turbulence with the goal of better understanding the role of nonlinearity in sustaining turbulence. The statistical state dynamics implementations used are ensemble closures at second order in a cumulant expansion of the Navier-Stokes equations in which the averaging operator is the streamwise mean. Two fundamentally non-normal mechanisms potentially contributing to maintaining the second cumulant are identified. These are essentially parametric perturbation growth arising from interaction of the perturbations with the fluctuating mean flow and transient growth of perturbations arising from nonlinear interaction between components of the perturbation field. By the method of selectively including these mechanisms parametric growth is found to maintain the perturbation field in the turbulent state while the more commonly invoked mechanism associated with transient growth of perturbations arising from scattering by nonlinear interaction is found to suppress perturbation variance. Funded by ERC Coturb Madrid Summer Program and NSF AGS-1246929.
Wavelet representation of the nuclear dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jouault, B.; Sebille, F.; Mota, V. de la
1997-12-31
The study of transport phenomena in nuclear matter is addressed in a new approach named DYWAN, based on the projection methods of statistical physics and on the mathematical theory of wavelets. Strongly compressed representations of the nuclear systems are obtained with an accurate description of the wave functions and of their antisymmetrization. The results of the approach are illustrated for the ground state description as well as for the dissipative dynamics of nuclei at intermediate energies. (K.A.). 52 refs.
Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium
B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)
2009-01-01
textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death
Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey
2006-01-01
The primary weakness in our current ability to evaluate future landscapes in terms of wildlife lies in the lack of quantitative models linking wildlife to forest stand conditions, including fuels treatments. This project focuses on 1) developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships models (WHR) utilizing Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and National Vegetation...
Wang, Hongkai; Stout, David B; Chatziioannou, Arion F
2013-05-01
The development of sophisticated and high throughput whole body small animal imaging technologies has created a need for improved image analysis and increased automation. The registration of a digital mouse atlas to individual images is a prerequisite for automated organ segmentation and uptake quantification. This paper presents a fully-automatic method for registering a statistical mouse atlas with individual subjects based on an anterior-posterior X-ray projection and a lateral optical photo of the mouse silhouette. The mouse atlas was trained as a statistical shape model based on 83 organ-segmented micro-CT images. For registration, a hierarchical approach is applied which first registers high contrast organs, and then estimates low contrast organs based on the registered high contrast organs. To register the high contrast organs, a 2D-registration-back-projection strategy is used that deforms the 3D atlas based on the 2D registrations of the atlas projections. For validation, this method was evaluated using 55 subjects of preclinical mouse studies. The results showed that this method can compensate for moderate variations of animal postures and organ anatomy. Two different metrics, the Dice coefficient and the average surface distance, were used to assess the registration accuracy of major organs. The Dice coefficients vary from 0.31 ± 0.16 for the spleen to 0.88 ± 0.03 for the whole body, and the average surface distance varies from 0.54 ± 0.06 mm for the lungs to 0.85 ± 0.10mm for the skin. The method was compared with a direct 3D deformation optimization (without 2D-registration-back-projection) and a single-subject atlas registration (instead of using the statistical atlas). The comparison revealed that the 2D-registration-back-projection strategy significantly improved the registration accuracy, and the use of the statistical mouse atlas led to more plausible organ shapes than the single-subject atlas. This method was also tested with shoulder
Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling
Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.
2014-06-01
In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two
Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin
2017-11-01
This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tiep Nguyen
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.
3D digital dynamic management of maintenance projects for nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Baizhong; Luo Yalin; Fang Hao; Ma Li; Zhang Jie; Wang Ruobing; Xie Min
2005-01-01
The whole process for the application of digital plant technique in the equipment transport in reactor building and the dynamic management of the spatial arrangement in Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station was introduced in the paper. The establishment of 3D digital Daya Bay plant, and the method and procedure to apply it in the nuclear power plant maintenance project have been discussed. This project utilizes the outer database to preserve the maintenance status of equipments, and avoids the damage or changing of the original 3D final model. Based on the maintenance procedure, the spatial arrangement and schedule for the maintenance of nuclear power station have been simulated and optimized for the whole process. This technique can simulate and optimize the arrangement and spatial arrangement for maintenance in limited space. It has been applied successfully in the reactor vessel head replacement for Unit 2 of Daya Bay NPP to shorten the time for key routes and the total time of this project by 16 hours and 92.5 hours, respectively. (author)
Huizingh, Eelko K. R. E.
2007-01-01
Accessibly written and easy to use, "Applied Statistics Using SPSS" is an all-in-one self-study guide to SPSS and do-it-yourself guide to statistics. What is unique about Eelko Huizingh's approach is that this book is based around the needs of undergraduate students embarking on their own research project, and its self-help style is designed to…
Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium
Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.
2011-01-01
Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild
Alunno-Bruscia, M.; v.d. Veer, H.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.
2011-01-01
This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5. years' project,
Model-based extraction of input and organ functions in dynamic scintigraphic imaging
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav; Šámal, M.
2016-01-01
Roč. 4, 3-4 (2016), s. 135-145 ISSN 2168-1171 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : blind source separation * convolution * dynamic medical imaging * compartment modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/tichy-0428540.pdf
Turchaninova, A.
2012-04-01
The estimation of extreme avalanche runout distances, flow velocities, impact pressures and volumes is an essential part of snow engineering in mountain regions of Russia. It implies the avalanche hazard assessment and mapping. Russian guidelines accept the application of different avalanche models as well as approaches for the estimation of model input parameters. Consequently different teams of engineers in Russia apply various dynamics and statistical models for engineering practice. However it gives more freedom to avalanche practitioners and experts but causes lots of uncertainties in case of serious limitations of avalanche models. We discuss these problems by presenting the application results of different well known and widely used statistical (developed in Russia) and avalanche dynamics models for several avalanche test sites in the Khibini Mountains (The Kola Peninsula) and the Caucasus. The most accurate and well-documented data from different powder and wet, big rare and small frequent snow avalanche events is collected from 1960th till today in the Khibini Mountains by the Avalanche Safety Center of "Apatit". This data was digitized and is available for use and analysis. Then the detailed digital avalanche database (GIS) was created for the first time. It contains contours of observed avalanches (ESRI shapes, more than 50 years of observations), DEMs, remote sensing data, description of snow pits, photos etc. Thus, the Russian avalanche data is a unique source of information for understanding of an avalanche flow rheology and the future development and calibration of the avalanche dynamics models. GIS database was used to analyze model input parameters and to calibrate and verify avalanche models. Regarding extreme dynamic parameters the outputs using different models can differ significantly. This is unacceptable for the engineering purposes in case of the absence of the well-defined guidelines in Russia. The frequency curves for the runout distance
Introductory statistical mechanics for electron storage rings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jowett, J.M.
1986-07-01
These lectures introduce the beam dynamics of electron-positron storage rings with particular emphasis on the effects due to synchrotron radiation. They differ from most other introductions in their systematic use of the physical principles and mathematical techniques of the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of fluctuating dynamical systems. A self-contained exposition of the necessary topics from this field is included. Throughout the development, a Hamiltonian description of the effects of the externally applied fields is maintained in order to preserve the links with other lectures on beam dynamics and to show clearly the extent to which electron dynamics in non-Hamiltonian. The statistical mechanical framework is extended to a discussion of the conceptual foundations of the treatment of collective effects through the Vlasov equation
Final project report for NEET pulsed ion beam project
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kucheyev, S. O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2018-01-11
The major goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate a novel experimental approach to access the dynamic regime of radiation damage formation in nuclear materials. In particular, the project exploited a pulsed-ion-beam method in order to gain insight into defect interaction dynamics by measuring effective defect interaction time constants and defect diffusion lengths. This project had the following four major objectives: (i) the demonstration of the pulsed ion beam method for a prototypical nuclear ceramic material, SiC; (ii) the evaluation of the robustness of the pulsed beam method from studies of defect generation rate effects; (iii) the measurement of the temperature dependence of defect dynamics and thermally activated defect-interaction processes by pulsed ion beam techniques; and (iv) the demonstration of alternative characterization techniques to study defect dynamics. As we describe below, all these objectives have been met.
Advanced data analysis in neuroscience integrating statistical and computational models
Durstewitz, Daniel
2017-01-01
This book is intended for use in advanced graduate courses in statistics / machine learning, as well as for all experimental neuroscientists seeking to understand statistical methods at a deeper level, and theoretical neuroscientists with a limited background in statistics. It reviews almost all areas of applied statistics, from basic statistical estimation and test theory, linear and nonlinear approaches for regression and classification, to model selection and methods for dimensionality reduction, density estimation and unsupervised clustering. Its focus, however, is linear and nonlinear time series analysis from a dynamical systems perspective, based on which it aims to convey an understanding also of the dynamical mechanisms that could have generated observed time series. Further, it integrates computational modeling of behavioral and neural dynamics with statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. This way computational models in neuroscience are not only explanat ory frameworks, but become powerfu...
Diniz, F.H.; Kok, K.; Hott, H.C.; Hoogstra-Klein, M.A.; Arts, B.J.M.
2013-01-01
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been partially attributed to the establishment of settlement projects. Acknowledging the difficulties in quantifying the rate and patterns of deforestation, the objective of this paper is to determine forest dynamics (deforestation and reforestation) in
DYNAMIC PARAMETER ESTIMATION BASED ON MINIMUM CROSS-ENTROPY METHOD FOR COMBINING INFORMATION SOURCES
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sečkárová, Vladimíra
2015-01-01
Roč. 24, č. 5 (2015), s. 181-188 ISSN 0204-9805. [XVI-th International Summer Conference on Probability and Statistics (ISCPS-2014). Pomorie, 21.6.-29.6.2014] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) SVV 260225/2015 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : minimum cross- entropy principle * Kullback-Leibler divergence * dynamic diffusion estimation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/AS/seckarova-0445817.pdf
Mathematical and statistical approaches to AIDS epidemiology
1989-01-01
The 18 research articles of this volume discuss the major themes that have emerged from mathematical and statistical research in the epidemiology of HIV. The opening paper reviews important recent contributions. Five sections follow: Statistical Methodology and Forecasting, Infectivity and the HIV, Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics, Social Dynamics and AIDS, and The Immune System and The HIV. In each, leading experts in AIDS epidemiology present the recent results. Some address the role of variable infectivity, heterogeneous mixing, and long periods of infectiousness in the dynamics of HIV; others concentrate on parameter estimation and short-term forecasting. The last section looks at the interaction between the HIV and the immune system.
Non-parametric Bayesian models of response function in dynamic image sequences
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav
2016-01-01
Roč. 151, č. 1 (2016), s. 90-100 ISSN 1077-3142 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Response function * Blind source separation * Dynamic medical imaging * Probabilistic models * Bayesian methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.498, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/tichy-0456983.pdf
Statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in porous crystals with dynamic moieties.
Simon, Cory M; Braun, Efrem; Carraro, Carlo; Smit, Berend
2017-01-17
Some nanoporous, crystalline materials possess dynamic constituents, for example, rotatable moieties. These moieties can undergo a conformation change in response to the adsorption of guest molecules, which qualitatively impacts adsorption behavior. We pose and solve a statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in a porous crystal whose cages share a common ligand that can adopt two distinct rotational conformations. Guest molecules incentivize the ligands to adopt a different rotational configuration than maintained in the empty host. Our model captures inflections, steps, and hysteresis that can arise in the adsorption isotherm as a signature of the rotating ligands. The insights disclosed by our simple model contribute a more intimate understanding of the response and consequence of rotating ligands integrated into porous materials to harness them for gas storage and separations, chemical sensing, drug delivery, catalysis, and nanoscale devices. Particularly, our model reveals design strategies to exploit these moving constituents and engineer improved adsorbents with intrinsic thermal management for pressure-swing adsorption processes.
Simple statistical model for branched aggregates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lemarchand, Claire; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt
2015-01-01
, given that it already has bonds with others. The model is applied here to asphaltene nanoaggregates observed in molecular dynamics simulations of Cooee bitumen. The variation with temperature of the probabilities deduced from this model is discussed in terms of statistical mechanics arguments....... The relevance of the statistical model in the case of asphaltene nanoaggregates is checked by comparing the predicted value of the probability for one molecule to have exactly i bonds with the same probability directly measured in the molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement is satisfactory......We propose a statistical model that can reproduce the size distribution of any branched aggregate, including amylopectin, dendrimers, molecular clusters of monoalcohols, and asphaltene nanoaggregates. It is based on the conditional probability for one molecule to form a new bond with a molecule...
Korenchenko, Anna E.; Vorontsov, Alexander G.; Gelchinski, Boris R.; Sannikov, Grigorii P.
2018-04-01
We discuss the problem of dimer formation during the homogeneous nucleation of atomic metal vapor in an inert gas environment. We simulated nucleation with molecular dynamics and carried out the statistical analysis of double- and triple-atomic collisions as the two ways of long-lived diatomic complex formation. Close pair of atoms with lifetime greater than the mean time interval between atom-atom collisions is called a long-lived diatomic complex. We found that double- and triple-atomic collisions gave approximately the same probabilities of long-lived diatomic complex formation, but internal energy of the resulted state was essentially lower in the second case. Some diatomic complexes formed in three-particle collisions are stable enough to be a critical nucleus.
Schwabl, Franz
2006-01-01
The completely revised new edition of the classical book on Statistical Mechanics covers the basic concepts of equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical physics. In addition to a deductive approach to equilibrium statistics and thermodynamics based on a single hypothesis - the form of the microcanonical density matrix - this book treats the most important elements of non-equilibrium phenomena. Intermediate calculations are presented in complete detail. Problems at the end of each chapter help students to consolidate their understanding of the material. Beyond the fundamentals, this text demonstrates the breadth of the field and its great variety of applications. Modern areas such as renormalization group theory, percolation, stochastic equations of motion and their applications to critical dynamics, kinetic theories, as well as fundamental considerations of irreversibility, are discussed. The text will be useful for advanced students of physics and other natural sciences; a basic knowledge of quantum mechan...
Automation of Publications in Official Statistics using R
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guido Schulz
2018-03-01
Full Text Available A key task of official statistical authorities is to collect and disseminate indicators periodically. Automation using a wide range of R packages bears massive potential to cut down the resources necessary for the creation of publications. Furthermore, automation in R has the potential to improve transparency, punctuality and coherence of statistical products. The dynamic reporting engine knitr in particular allows for an efficient combination of R’s functionalities of data retrieval, data manipulation and customizable plotting on the one hand, and the layout and typesetting flexibility of LaTex or other markup languages on the other. This allows official statistical authorities to produce either ready-to-print PDFs or interactive websites while adhering to their corporate design requirements. Furthermore, dynamic reporting makes it possible to update periodic publications automatically. A work in progress example of automated statistical country profiles – a product the German Federal Statistical Office regularly publishes based on a wide range of official international sources – will be presented to illustrate both advantages and challenges in the practical use of dynamic reporting using R and knitr in particular.
Saffran, Jenny R.; Kirkham, Natasha Z.
2017-01-01
Perception involves making sense of a dynamic, multimodal environment. In the absence of mechanisms capable of exploiting the statistical patterns in the natural world, infants would face an insurmountable computational problem. Infant statistical learning mechanisms facilitate the detection of structure. These abilities allow the infant to compute across elements in their environmental input, extracting patterns for further processing and subsequent learning. In this selective review, we summarize findings that show that statistical learning is both a broad and flexible mechanism (supporting learning from different modalities across many different content areas) and input specific (shifting computations depending on the type of input and goal of learning). We suggest that statistical learning not only provides a framework for studying language development and object knowledge in constrained laboratory settings, but also allows researchers to tackle real-world problems, such as multilingualism, the role of ever-changing learning environments, and differential developmental trajectories. PMID:28793812
SU-F-I-10: Spatially Local Statistics for Adaptive Image Filtering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iliopoulos, AS; Sun, X; Floros, D; Zhang, Y; Yin, FF; Ren, L; Pitsianis, N
2016-01-01
Purpose: To facilitate adaptive image filtering operations, addressing spatial variations in both noise and signal. Such issues are prevalent in cone-beam projections, where physical effects such as X-ray scattering result in spatially variant noise, violating common assumptions of homogeneous noise and challenging conventional filtering approaches to signal extraction and noise suppression. Methods: We present a computational mechanism for probing into and quantifying the spatial variance of noise throughout an image. The mechanism builds a pyramid of local statistics at multiple spatial scales; local statistical information at each scale includes (weighted) mean, median, standard deviation, median absolute deviation, as well as histogram or dynamic range after local mean/median shifting. Based on inter-scale differences of local statistics, the spatial scope of distinguishable noise variation is detected in a semi- or un-supervised manner. Additionally, we propose and demonstrate the incorporation of such information in globally parametrized (i.e., non-adaptive) filters, effectively transforming the latter into spatially adaptive filters. The multi-scale mechanism is materialized by efficient algorithms and implemented in parallel CPU/GPU architectures. Results: We demonstrate the impact of local statistics for adaptive image processing and analysis using cone-beam projections of a Catphan phantom, fitted within an annulus to increase X-ray scattering. The effective spatial scope of local statistics calculations is shown to vary throughout the image domain, necessitating multi-scale noise and signal structure analysis. Filtering results with and without spatial filter adaptation are compared visually, illustrating improvements in imaging signal extraction and noise suppression, and in preserving information in low-contrast regions. Conclusion: Local image statistics can be incorporated in filtering operations to equip them with spatial adaptivity to spatial
SU-F-I-10: Spatially Local Statistics for Adaptive Image Filtering
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iliopoulos, AS; Sun, X [Duke University, Durham, NC (United States); Floros, D [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece); Zhang, Y; Yin, FF; Ren, L [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Pitsianis, N [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece); Duke University, Durham, NC (United States)
2016-06-15
Purpose: To facilitate adaptive image filtering operations, addressing spatial variations in both noise and signal. Such issues are prevalent in cone-beam projections, where physical effects such as X-ray scattering result in spatially variant noise, violating common assumptions of homogeneous noise and challenging conventional filtering approaches to signal extraction and noise suppression. Methods: We present a computational mechanism for probing into and quantifying the spatial variance of noise throughout an image. The mechanism builds a pyramid of local statistics at multiple spatial scales; local statistical information at each scale includes (weighted) mean, median, standard deviation, median absolute deviation, as well as histogram or dynamic range after local mean/median shifting. Based on inter-scale differences of local statistics, the spatial scope of distinguishable noise variation is detected in a semi- or un-supervised manner. Additionally, we propose and demonstrate the incorporation of such information in globally parametrized (i.e., non-adaptive) filters, effectively transforming the latter into spatially adaptive filters. The multi-scale mechanism is materialized by efficient algorithms and implemented in parallel CPU/GPU architectures. Results: We demonstrate the impact of local statistics for adaptive image processing and analysis using cone-beam projections of a Catphan phantom, fitted within an annulus to increase X-ray scattering. The effective spatial scope of local statistics calculations is shown to vary throughout the image domain, necessitating multi-scale noise and signal structure analysis. Filtering results with and without spatial filter adaptation are compared visually, illustrating improvements in imaging signal extraction and noise suppression, and in preserving information in low-contrast regions. Conclusion: Local image statistics can be incorporated in filtering operations to equip them with spatial adaptivity to spatial
Lin, Hui; Gao, Jian; Mei, Qing; He, Yunbo; Liu, Junxiu; Wang, Xingjin
2016-04-04
It is a challenge for any optical method to measure objects with a large range of reflectivity variation across the surface. Image saturation results in incorrect intensities in captured fringe pattern images, leading to phase and measurement errors. This paper presents a new adaptive digital fringe projection technique which avoids image saturation and has a high signal to noise ratio (SNR) in the three-dimensional (3-D) shape measurement of objects that has a large range of reflectivity variation across the surface. Compared to previous high dynamic range 3-D scan methods using many exposures and fringe pattern projections, which consumes a lot of time, the proposed technique uses only two preliminary steps of fringe pattern projection and image capture to generate the adapted fringe patterns, by adaptively adjusting the pixel-wise intensity of the projected fringe patterns based on the saturated pixels in the captured images of the surface being measured. For the bright regions due to high surface reflectivity and high illumination by the ambient light and surfaces interreflections, the projected intensity is reduced just to be low enough to avoid image saturation. Simultaneously, the maximum intensity of 255 is used for those dark regions with low surface reflectivity to maintain high SNR. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed technique can achieve higher 3-D measurement accuracy across a surface with a large range of reflectivity variation.
The statistical distribution of aerosol properties in sourthern West Africa
Haslett, Sophie; Taylor, Jonathan; Flynn, Michael; Bower, Keith; Dorsey, James; Crawford, Ian; Brito, Joel; Denjean, Cyrielle; Bourrianne, Thierry; Burnet, Frederic; Batenburg, Anneke; Schulz, Christiane; Schneider, Johannes; Borrmann, Stephan; Sauer, Daniel; Duplissy, Jonathan; Lee, James; Vaughan, Adam; Coe, Hugh
2017-04-01
The population and economy in southern West Africa have been growing at an exceptional rate in recent years and this trend is expected to continue, with the population projected to more than double to 800 million by 2050. This will result in a dramatic increase in anthropogenic pollutants, already estimated to have tripled between 1950 and 2000 (Lamarque et al., 2010). It is known that aerosols can modify the radiative properties of clouds. As such, the entrainment of anthropogenic aerosol into the large banks of clouds forming during the onset of the West African Monsoon could have a substantial impact on the region's response to climate change. Such projections, however, are greatly limited by the scarcity of observations in this part of the world. As part of the Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project, three research aircraft were deployed, each carrying equipment capable of measuring aerosol properties in-situ. Instrumentation included Aerosol Mass Spectrometers (AMS), Single Particle Soot Photometers (SP2), Condensation Particle Counters (CPC) and Scanning Mobility Particle Sizers (SMPS). Throughout the intensive aircraft campaign, 155 hours of scientific flights covered an area including large parts of Benin, Togo, Ghana and parts of Côte D'Ivoire. Approximately 70 hours were dedicated to the measurement of cloud-aerosol interactions, with many other flights producing data contributing towards this objective. Using datasets collected during this campaign period, it is possible to build a robust statistical understanding of aerosol properties in this region for the first time, including size distributions and optical and chemical properties. Here, we describe preliminary results from aerosol measurements on board the three aircraft. These have been used to describe aerosol properties throughout the region and time period encompassed by the DACCIWA aircraft campaign. Such statistics will be invaluable for improving future
Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.
2010-12-01
Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically
Temporal scaling and spatial statistical analyses of groundwater level fluctuations
Sun, H.; Yuan, L., Sr.; Zhang, Y.
2017-12-01
Natural dynamics such as groundwater level fluctuations can exhibit multifractionality and/or multifractality due likely to multi-scale aquifer heterogeneity and controlling factors, whose statistics requires efficient quantification methods. This study explores multifractionality and non-Gaussian properties in groundwater dynamics expressed by time series of daily level fluctuation at three wells located in the lower Mississippi valley, after removing the seasonal cycle in the temporal scaling and spatial statistical analysis. First, using the time-scale multifractional analysis, a systematic statistical method is developed to analyze groundwater level fluctuations quantified by the time-scale local Hurst exponent (TS-LHE). Results show that the TS-LHE does not remain constant, implying the fractal-scaling behavior changing with time and location. Hence, we can distinguish the potentially location-dependent scaling feature, which may characterize the hydrology dynamic system. Second, spatial statistical analysis shows that the increment of groundwater level fluctuations exhibits a heavy tailed, non-Gaussian distribution, which can be better quantified by a Lévy stable distribution. Monte Carlo simulations of the fluctuation process also show that the linear fractional stable motion model can well depict the transient dynamics (i.e., fractal non-Gaussian property) of groundwater level, while fractional Brownian motion is inadequate to describe natural processes with anomalous dynamics. Analysis of temporal scaling and spatial statistics therefore may provide useful information and quantification to understand further the nature of complex dynamics in hydrology.
Statistics for clinical nursing practice: an introduction.
Rickard, Claire M
2008-11-01
Difficulty in understanding statistics is one of the most frequently reported barriers to nurses applying research results in their practice. Yet the amount of nursing research published each year continues to grow, as does the expectation that nurses will undertake practice based on this evidence. Critical care nurses do not need to be statisticians, but they do need to develop a working knowledge of statistics so they can be informed consumers of research and so practice can evolve and improve. For those undertaking a research project, statistical literacy is required to interact with other researchers and statisticians, so as to best design and undertake the project. This article is the first in a series that guides critical care nurses through statistical terms and concepts relevant to their practice.
Statistical symmetries in physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Green, H.S.; Adelaide Univ., SA
1994-01-01
Every law of physics is invariant under some group of transformations and is therefore the expression of some type of symmetry. Symmetries are classified as geometrical, dynamical or statistical. At the most fundamental level, statistical symmetries are expressed in the field theories of the elementary particles. This paper traces some of the developments from the discovery of Bose statistics, one of the two fundamental symmetries of physics. A series of generalizations of Bose statistics is described. A supersymmetric generalization accommodates fermions as well as bosons, and further generalizations, including parastatistics, modular statistics and graded statistics, accommodate particles with properties such as 'colour'. A factorization of elements of ggl(n b ,n f ) can be used to define truncated boson operators. A general construction is given for q-deformed boson operators, and explicit constructions of the same type are given for various 'deformed' algebras. A summary is given of some of the applications and potential applications. 39 refs., 2 figs
Six sigma for organizational excellence a statistical approach
Muralidharan, K
2015-01-01
This book discusses the integrated concepts of statistical quality engineering and management tools. It will help readers to understand and apply the concepts of quality through project management and technical analysis, using statistical methods. Prepared in a ready-to-use form, the text will equip practitioners to implement the Six Sigma principles in projects. The concepts discussed are all critically assessed and explained, allowing them to be practically applied in managerial decision-making, and in each chapter, the objectives and connections to the rest of the work are clearly illustrated. To aid in understanding, the book includes a wealth of tables, graphs, descriptions and checklists, as well as charts and plots, worked-out examples and exercises. Perhaps the most unique feature of the book is its approach, using statistical tools, to explain the science behind Six Sigma project management and integrated in engineering concepts. The material on quality engineering and statistical management tools of...
Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.
2002-01-01
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. Independent estimates and analyses are needed as are institutional checks and balances to curb deception.......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... estimates used to decide whether important infrastructure should be built are highly and systematically misleading. The result is continuous cost escalation of billions of dollars. The sample used in the study is the largest of its kind, allowing for the first time statistically valid conclusions regarding...
Cost Underestimation in Public Works Projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. Independent estimates and analyses are needed as are institutional checks and balances to curb deception.......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... estimates used to decide whether important infrastructure should be built are highly and systematically misleading. The result is continuous cost escalation of billions of dollars. The sample used in the study is the largest of its kind, allowing for the first time statistically valid conclusions regarding...
Statistical mechanics and dynamics of solvable models with long-range interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campa, Alessandro; Dauxois, Thierry; Ruffo, Stefano
2009-01-01
For systems with long-range interactions, the two-body potential decays at large distances as V(r)∼1/r α , with α≤d, where d is the space dimension. Examples are: gravitational systems, two-dimensional hydrodynamics, two-dimensional elasticity, charged and dipolar systems. Although such systems can be made extensive, they are intrinsically non additive: the sum of the energies of macroscopic subsystems is not equal to the energy of the whole system. Moreover, the space of accessible macroscopic thermodynamic parameters might be non convex. The violation of these two basic properties of the thermodynamics of short-range systems is at the origin of ensemble inequivalence. In turn, this inequivalence implies that specific heat can be negative in the microcanonical ensemble, and temperature jumps can appear at microcanonical first order phase transitions. The lack of convexity allows us to easily spot regions of parameter space where ergodicity may be broken. Historically, negative specific heat had been found for gravitational systems and was thought to be a specific property of a system for which the existence of standard equilibrium statistical mechanics itself was doubted. Realizing that such properties may be present for a wider class of systems has renewed the interest in long-range interactions. Here, we present a comprehensive review of the recent advances on the statistical mechanics and out-of-equilibrium dynamics of solvable systems with long-range interactions. The core of the review consists in the detailed presentation of the concept of ensemble inequivalence, as exemplified by the exact solution, in the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, of mean-field type models. Remarkably, the entropy of all these models can be obtained using the method of large deviations. Long-range interacting systems display an extremely slow relaxation towards thermodynamic equilibrium and, what is more striking, the convergence towards quasi-stationary states. The
Dynamics of participation and supply of services in the Hood River Conservation Project
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hirst, E.; Goeltz, R.
1986-07-01
The Hood River Conservation Project (HRCP) is a major residential retrofit demonstration project. HRCP is funded by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and run by Pacific Power and Light Company. The project was conducted in the community of Hood River, Oregon, will cost $21 million, and will last for three years (mid-1983 through 1986). Installation of applicable retrofit measures was completed by the end of 1985; data collection, analysis, and report writing will continue through 1986. This report documents the extent to which households participated in HRCP. Differences between participants and eligible nonparticipants are examined. Similarly, differences among participants as a function of when they signed up for HRCP are analyzed. The report also examines the dynamics of program services (i.e., times between audit requests and audit, and between audit and installation of measures). These analyses are based on data from the roughly 3500 Hood River homes eligible for HRCP, 3189 of which received free home energy audits and 2988 of which received HRCP-financed retrofit measures.
Dynamic PET Image reconstruction for parametric imaging using the HYPR kernel method
Spencer, Benjamin; Qi, Jinyi; Badawi, Ramsey D.; Wang, Guobao
2017-03-01
Dynamic PET image reconstruction is a challenging problem because of the ill-conditioned nature of PET and the lowcounting statistics resulted from short time-frames in dynamic imaging. The kernel method for image reconstruction has been developed to improve image reconstruction of low-count PET data by incorporating prior information derived from high-count composite data. In contrast to most of the existing regularization-based methods, the kernel method embeds image prior information in the forward projection model and does not require an explicit regularization term in the reconstruction formula. Inspired by the existing highly constrained back-projection (HYPR) algorithm for dynamic PET image denoising, we propose in this work a new type of kernel that is simpler to implement and further improves the kernel-based dynamic PET image reconstruction. Our evaluation study using a physical phantom scan with synthetic FDG tracer kinetics has demonstrated that the new HYPR kernel-based reconstruction can achieve a better region-of-interest (ROI) bias versus standard deviation trade-off for dynamic PET parametric imaging than the post-reconstruction HYPR denoising method and the previously used nonlocal-means kernel.
A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics
Jenny Leonard
2012-01-01
The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...
Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics ensemble method
Eu, Byung Chan
1998-01-01
In this monograph, nonequilibrium statistical mechanics is developed by means of ensemble methods on the basis of the Boltzmann equation, the generic Boltzmann equations for classical and quantum dilute gases, and a generalised Boltzmann equation for dense simple fluids The theories are developed in forms parallel with the equilibrium Gibbs ensemble theory in a way fully consistent with the laws of thermodynamics The generalised hydrodynamics equations are the integral part of the theory and describe the evolution of macroscopic processes in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics of systems far removed from equilibrium Audience This book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, gas dynamics, fluid dynamics, rheology, irreversible thermodynamics and nonequilibrium phenomena
Mair, Patrick; Hofmann, Eva; Gruber, Kathrin; Hatzinger, Reinhold; Zeileis, Achim; Hornik, Kurt
2015-12-01
One of the cornerstones of the R system for statistical computing is the multitude of packages contributed by numerous package authors. This amount of packages makes an extremely broad range of statistical techniques and other quantitative methods freely available. Thus far, no empirical study has investigated psychological factors that drive authors to participate in the R project. This article presents a study of R package authors, collecting data on different types of participation (number of packages, participation in mailing lists, participation in conferences), three psychological scales (types of motivation, psychological values, and work design characteristics), and various socio-demographic factors. The data are analyzed using item response models and subsequent generalized linear models, showing that the most important determinants for participation are a hybrid form of motivation and the social characteristics of the work design. Other factors are found to have less impact or influence only specific aspects of participation.
Mpelasoka, Freddie; Awange, Joseph L; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz
2018-05-01
Changes in drought around the globe are among the most daunting potential effects of climate change. However, changes in droughts are often not well distinguished from changes in aridity levels. As drought constitutes conditions of aridity, the projected declines in mean precipitation tend to override changes in drought. This results in projections of more dire changes in drought than ever. The overestimate of changes can be attributed to the use of 'static' normal precipitation in the derivation of drought events. The failure in distinguishing drought from aridity is a conceptual problem of concern, particularly to drought policymakers. Given that the key objective of drought policies is to determine drought conditions, which are rare and so protracted that they are beyond the scope of normal risk management, for interventions. The main objective of this Case Study of Brazil is to demonstrate the differences between projections of changes in drought based on 'static' and '30-year dynamic' precipitation normal conditions. First we demonstrate that the 'static' based projections suggest 4-fold changes in the probability of drought-year occurrences against changes by the dynamic normal precipitation. The 'static-normal mean precipitation' based projections tend to be monotonically increasing in magnitude, and were arguably considered unrealistic. Based on the '30-year dynamic' normal precipitation conditions, the 13-member GCM ensemble median projection estimates of changes for 2050 under rcp4.5 1 and rcp8.5 2 suggest: (i) Significant differences between changes associated with rcp4.5 and rcp8.5, and are more noticeable for droughts at long than short timescales in the 2070; (ii) Overall, the results demonstrate more realistic projections of changes in drought characteristics over Brazil than previous projections based on 'static' normal precipitation conditions. However, the uncertainty of response of droughts to climate change in CMIP5 simulations is still large
Using statistics to understand the environment
Cook, Penny A
2000-01-01
Using Statistics to Understand the Environment covers all the basic tests required for environmental practicals and projects and points the way to the more advanced techniques that may be needed in more complex research designs. Following an introduction to project design, the book covers methods to describe data, to examine differences between samples, and to identify relationships and associations between variables.Featuring: worked examples covering a wide range of environmental topics, drawings and icons, chapter summaries, a glossary of statistical terms and a further reading section, this book focuses on the needs of the researcher rather than on the mathematics behind the tests.
Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.
2013-10-01
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.
Zuo, Chao; Chen, Qian; Gu, Guohua; Feng, Shijie; Feng, Fangxiaoyu; Li, Rubin; Shen, Guochen
2013-08-01
This paper introduces a high-speed three-dimensional (3-D) shape measurement technique for dynamic scenes by using bi-frequency tripolar pulse-width-modulation (TPWM) fringe projection. Two wrapped phase maps with different wavelengths can be obtained simultaneously by our bi-frequency phase-shifting algorithm. Then the two phase maps are unwrapped using a simple look-up-table based number-theoretical approach. To guarantee the robustness of phase unwrapping as well as the high sinusoidality of projected patterns, TPWM technique is employed to generate ideal fringe patterns with slight defocus. We detailed our technique, including its principle, pattern design, and system setup. Several experiments on dynamic scenes were performed, verifying that our method can achieve a speed of 1250 frames per second for fast, dense, and accurate 3-D measurements.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Geiger, L.C.
1985-01-01
This dissertation is a collection of four projects in theoretical chemical dynamics. In the first two projects collisional excitation in H + CO was studied using the quasiclassical trajectory method and the quantum infinite order sudden approximation (QIOS). Integral cross sections calculated using these methods were found to agree well with experimental and classical IOS results. The trajectory study was also used to examine the effects of potential energy surface features on the dynamics. Two surfaces were examined: a fitted surface based on ab initio points and a global ab initio surface. Next, the quasiclassical trajectory method was used to obtain cross sections and rate constants for O + H 2 → OH + H and analogous deuterium isotope reactions. The results using the Johnson and Winter surface agreed well with those of transition state theory (TST) and experiment, except for O + HD → OH + D. TST rate constants were calculated using an ab initio surface. These results were in poor agreement with calculations using the Johnson and Winter surface. A theory of action-angle variables for coupled oscillator systems was developed in the fourth project
Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco
2015-01-01
Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind-the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.
The role of fluctuations and interactions in pedestrian dynamics
Corbetta, Alessandro; Meeusen, Jasper; Benzi, Roberto; Lee, Chung-Min; Toschi, Federico
Understanding quantitatively the statistical behaviour of pedestrians walking in crowds is a major scientific challenge of paramount societal relevance. Walking humans exhibit a rich (stochastic) dynamics whose small and large deviations are driven, among others, by own will as well as by environmental conditions. Via 24/7 automatic pedestrian tracking from multiple overhead Microsoft Kinect depth sensors, we collected large ensembles of pedestrian trajectories (in the order of tens of millions) in different real-life scenarios. These scenarios include both narrow corridors and large urban hallways, enabling us to cover and compare a wide spectrum of typical pedestrian dynamics. We investigate the pedestrian motion measuring the PDFs, e.g. those of position, velocity and acceleration, and at unprecedentedly high statistical resolution. We consider the dependence of PDFs on flow conditions, focusing on diluted dynamics and pair-wise interactions (''collisions'') for mutual avoidance. By means of Langevin-like models we provide models for the measured data, inclusive typical fluctuations and rare events. This work is part of the JSTP research programme ``Vision driven visitor behaviour analysis and crowd management'' with Project Number 341-10-001, which is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. P. Kochendorfer
2010-10-01
Full Text Available The statistical-dynamical annual water balance model of Eagleson (1978 is a pioneering work in the analysis of climate, soil and vegetation interactions. This paper describes several enhancements and modifications to the model that improve its physical realism at the expense of its mathematical elegance and analytical tractability. In particular, the analytical solutions for the root zone fluxes are re-derived using separate potential rates of transpiration and bare-soil evaporation. Those potential rates, along with the rate of evaporation from canopy interception, are calculated using the two-component Shuttleworth-Wallace (1985 canopy model. In addition, the soil column is divided into two layers, with the upper layer representing the dynamic root zone. The resulting ability to account for changes in root-zone water storage allows for implementation at the monthly timescale. This new version of the Eagleson model is coined the Statistical-Dynamical Ecohydrology Model (SDEM. The ability of the SDEM to capture the seasonal dynamics of the local-scale soil-water balance is demonstrated for two grassland sites in the US Great Plains. Sensitivity of the results to variations in peak green leaf area index (LAI suggests that the mean peak green LAI is determined by some minimum in root zone soil moisture during the growing season. That minimum appears to be close to the soil matric potential at which the dominant grass species begins to experience water stress and well above the wilting point, thereby suggesting an ecological optimality hypothesis in which the need to avoid water-stress-induced leaf abscission is balanced by the maximization of carbon assimilation (and associated transpiration. Finally, analysis of the sensitivity of model-determined peak green LAI to soil texture shows that the coupled model is able to reproduce the so-called "inverse texture effect", which consists of the observation that natural vegetation in dry climates tends
Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall
2016-01-01
Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.
Generalized Statistical Mechanics at the Onset of Chaos
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto Robledo
2013-11-01
Full Text Available Transitions to chaos in archetypal low-dimensional nonlinear maps offer real and precise model systems in which to assess proposed generalizations of statistical mechanics. The known association of chaotic dynamics with the structure of Boltzmann–Gibbs (BG statistical mechanics has suggested the potential verification of these generalizations at the onset of chaos, when the only Lyapunov exponent vanishes and ergodic and mixing properties cease to hold. There are three well-known routes to chaos in these deterministic dissipative systems, period-doubling, quasi-periodicity and intermittency, which provide the setting in which to explore the limit of validity of the standard BG structure. It has been shown that there is a rich and intricate behavior for both the dynamics within and towards the attractors at the onset of chaos and that these two kinds of properties are linked via generalized statistical-mechanical expressions. Amongst the topics presented are: (i permanently growing sensitivity fluctuations and their infinite family of generalized Pesin identities; (ii the emergence of statistical-mechanical structures in the dynamics along the routes to chaos; (iii dynamical hierarchies with modular organization; and (iv limit distributions of sums of deterministic variables. The occurrence of generalized entropy properties in condensed-matter physical systems is illustrated by considering critical fluctuations, localization transition and glass formation. We complete our presentation with the description of the manifestations of the dynamics at the transitions to chaos in various kinds of complex systems, such as, frequency and size rank distributions and complex network images of time series. We discuss the results.
DBMS as a Tool for Project Management
Linder, H.
1984-01-01
Scientific objectives of crustal dynamics are listed as well as the contents of the centralized data information system for the crustal dynamics project. The system provides for project observation schedules, gives project configuration control information and project site information.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiahang Yuan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In consideration of the interaction among attributes and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude, this paper proposes an intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and prospect theory. With respect to a multiattribute group decision-making problem, the prospect value functions of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are aggregated by the proposed operator; then a grey relation-projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is developed to obtain the ranking of alternatives; the firefly algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of projection for obtaining the best projection direction of grey correlation projection values, and the grey correlation projection values are evaluated, which are applied to classify, rank, and prefer the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.
Glushak, P. A.; Markiv, B. B.; Tokarchuk, M. V.
2018-01-01
We present a generalization of Zubarev's nonequilibrium statistical operator method based on the principle of maximum Renyi entropy. In the framework of this approach, we obtain transport equations for the basic set of parameters of the reduced description of nonequilibrium processes in a classical system of interacting particles using Liouville equations with fractional derivatives. For a classical systems of particles in a medium with a fractal structure, we obtain a non-Markovian diffusion equation with fractional spatial derivatives. For a concrete model of the frequency dependence of a memory function, we obtain generalized Kettano-type diffusion equation with the spatial and temporal fractality taken into account. We present a generalization of nonequilibrium thermofield dynamics in Zubarev's nonequilibrium statistical operator method in the framework of Renyi statistics.
Statistical dynamics of religion evolutions
Ausloos, M.; Petroni, F.
2009-10-01
A religion affiliation can be considered as a “degree of freedom” of an agent on the human genre network. A brief review is given on the state of the art in data analysis and modelization of religious “questions” in order to suggest and if possible initiate further research, after using a “statistical physics filter”. We present a discussion of the evolution of 18 so-called religions, as measured through their number of adherents between 1900 and 2000. Some emphasis is made on a few cases presenting a minimum or a maximum in the investigated time range-thereby suggesting a competitive ingredient to be considered, besides the well accepted “at birth” attachment effect. The importance of the “external field” is still stressed through an Avrami late stage crystal growth-like parameter. The observed features and some intuitive interpretations point to opinion based models with vector, rather than scalar, like agents.
Souto, R Seoane; Martín-Rodero, A; Yeyati, A Levy
2016-12-23
We analyze the quantum quench dynamics in the formation of a phase-biased superconducting nanojunction. We find that in the absence of an external relaxation mechanism and for very general conditions the system gets trapped in a metastable state, corresponding to a nonequilibrium population of the Andreev bound states. The use of the time-dependent full counting statistics analysis allows us to extract information on the asymptotic population of even and odd many-body states, demonstrating that a universal behavior, dependent only on the Andreev state energy, is reached in the quantum point contact limit. These results shed light on recent experimental observations on quasiparticle trapping in superconducting atomic contacts.
Environmental Interfaces in Teaching Economic Statistics
Campos, Celso; Wodewotzki, Maria Lucia; Jacobini, Otavio; Ferrira, Denise
2016-01-01
The objective of this article is, based on the Critical Statistics Education assumptions, to value some environmental interfaces in teaching Statistics by modeling projects. Due to this, we present a practical case, one in which we address an environmental issue, placed in the context of the teaching of index numbers, within the Statistics…
Statistical Content in Middle Grades Mathematics Textbooks
Pickle, Maria Consuelo Capiral
2012-01-01
This study analyzed the treatment and scope of statistical concepts in four, widely-used, contemporary, middle grades mathematics textbook series: "Glencoe Math Connects," "Prentice Hall Mathematics," "Connected Mathematics Project," and "University of Chicago School Mathematics Project." There were three…
Mair, Patrick; Hofmann, Eva; Gruber, Kathrin; Hatzinger, Reinhold; Zeileis, Achim; Hornik, Kurt
2015-01-01
One of the cornerstones of the R system for statistical computing is the multitude of packages contributed by numerous package authors. This amount of packages makes an extremely broad range of statistical techniques and other quantitative methods freely available. Thus far, no empirical study has investigated psychological factors that drive authors to participate in the R project. This article presents a study of R package authors, collecting data on different types of participation (number of packages, participation in mailing lists, participation in conferences), three psychological scales (types of motivation, psychological values, and work design characteristics), and various socio-demographic factors. The data are analyzed using item response models and subsequent generalized linear models, showing that the most important determinants for participation are a hybrid form of motivation and the social characteristics of the work design. Other factors are found to have less impact or influence only specific aspects of participation. PMID:26554005
Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project
Blanc, E.; Ceranna, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Marchetti, E.; Evers, L. G.; Kvaerna, T.; Lastovicka, J.; Eliasson, L.; Crosby, N. B.; Blanc-Benon, P.; Le Pichon, A.; Brachet, N.; Pilger, C.; Keckhut, P.; Assink, J. D.; Smets, P. S. M.; Lee, C. F.; Kero, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Kämpfer, N.; Rüfenacht, R.; Farges, T.; Millet, C.; Näsholm, S. P.; Gibbons, S. J.; Espy, P. J.; Hibbins, R. E.; Heinrich, P.; Ripepe, M.; Khaykin, S.; Mze, N.; Chum, J.
2018-03-01
This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.
Strongly Coupled Fluid-Body Dynamics in the Immersed Boundary Projection Method
Wang, Chengjie; Eldredge, Jeff D.
2014-11-01
A computational algorithm is developed to simulate dynamically coupled interaction between fluid and rigid bodies. The basic computational framework is built upon a multi-domain immersed boundary method library, whirl, developed in previous work. In this library, the Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flow are solved on a uniform Cartesian grid by the vorticity-based immersed boundary projection method of Colonius and Taira. A solver for the dynamics of rigid-body systems is also included. The fluid and rigid-body solvers are strongly coupled with an iterative approach based on the block Gauss-Seidel method. Interfacial force, with its intimate connection with the Lagrange multipliers used in the fluid solver, is used as the primary iteration variable. Relaxation, developed from a stability analysis of the iterative scheme, is used to achieve convergence in only 2-4 iterations per time step. Several two- and three-dimensional numerical tests are conducted to validate and demonstrate the method, including flapping of flexible wings, self-excited oscillations of a system of linked plates and three-dimensional propulsion of flexible fluked tail. This work has been supported by AFOSR, under Award FA9550-11-1-0098.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dennis Travagini Cremonese
Full Text Available Abstract In the early stage of front-end studies of a Mining Project, the global availability (i.e. number of hours a plant is available for production and production (number of hours a plant is actually operated with material time of the process plant are normally assumed based on the experience of the study team. Understanding and defining the availability hours at the early stages of the project are important for the future stages of the project, as drastic changes in work hours will impact the economics of the project at that stage. An innovative high-level dynamic modeling approach has been developed to assist in the rapid evaluation of assumptions made by the study team. This model incorporates systems or equipment that are commonly used in mining projects from mine to product stockyard discharge after the processing plant. It includes subsystems that will simulate all the component handling, and major process plant systems required for a mining project. The output data provided by this high-level dynamic simulation approach will enhance the confidence level of engineering carried out during the early stage of the project. This study discusses the capabilities of the approach, and a test case compared with standard techniques used in mining project front-end studies.
Fast generation of 4D PET-MR data from real dynamic MR acquisitions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsoumpas, C; Buerger, C; King, A P; Schleyer, P; Schaeffter, T; Marsden, P K; Mollet, P; Keereman, V; Vandenberghe, S; Schulz, V
2011-01-01
We have implemented and evaluated a framework for simulating simultaneous dynamic PET-MR data using the anatomic and dynamic information from real MR acquisitions. PET radiotracer distribution is simulated by assigning typical FDG uptake values to segmented MR images with manually inserted additional virtual lesions. PET projection data and images are simulated using analytic forward projections (including attenuation and Poisson statistics) implemented within the image reconstruction package STIR. PET image reconstructions are also performed with STIR. The simulation is validated with numerical simulation based on Monte Carlo (GATE) which uses more accurate physical modelling, but has 150x slower computation time compared to the analytic method for ten respiratory positions and is 7000x slower when performing multiple realizations. Results are validated in terms of region of interest mean values and coefficients of variation for 65 million coincidences including scattered events. Although some discrepancy is observed, agreement between the two different simulation methods is good given the statistical noise in the data. In particular, the percentage difference of the mean values is 3.1% for tissue, 17% for the lungs and 18% for a small lesion. The utility of the procedure is demonstrated by simulating realistic PET-MR datasets from multiple volunteers with different breathing patterns. The usefulness of the toolkit will be shown for performance investigations of the reconstruction, motion correction and attenuation correction algorithms for dynamic PET-MR data.
Is there a statistical mechanics of turbulence?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kraichnan, R.H.; Chen, S.Y.
1988-09-01
The statistical-mechanical treatment of turbulence is made questionable by strong nonlinearity and strong disequilibrium that result in the creation of ordered structures imbedded in disorder. Model systems are described which may provide some hope that a compact, yet faithful, statistical description of turbulence nevertheless is possible. Some essential dynamic features of the models are captured by low-order statistical approximations despite strongly non-Gaussian behavior. 31 refs., 5 figs
Jambrina, P G; Aoiz, F J; Bulut, N; Smith, Sean C; Balint-Kurti, G G; Hankel, M
2010-02-07
A detailed study of the proton exchange reaction H(+) + D(2)(v = 0, j = 0) --> HD + D(+) on its ground 1(1)A' potential energy surface has been carried out using 'exact' close-coupled quantum mechanical wavepacket (WP-EQM), quasi-classical trajectory (QCT), and statistical quasi-classical trajectory (SQCT) calculations for a range of collision energies starting from the reaction threshold to 1.3 eV. The WP-EQM calculations include all total angular momenta up to J(max) = 50, and therefore the various dynamical observables are converged up to 0.6 eV. It has been found that it is necessary to include all Coriolis couplings to obtain reliable converged results. Reaction probabilities obtained using the different methods are thoroughly compared as a function of the total energy for a series of J values. Comparisons are also made of total reaction cross sections as function of the collision energy, and rate constants. In addition, opacity functions, integral cross sections (ICS) and differential cross sections (DCS) are presented at 102 meV, 201.3 meV and 524.6 meV collision energy. The agreement between the three sets of results is only qualitative. The QCT calculations fail to describe the overall reactivity and most of the dynamical observables correctly. At low collision energies, the QCT method is plagued by the lack of conservation of zero point energy, whilst at higher collision energies and/or total angular momenta, the appearance of an effective repulsive potential associated with the centrifugal motion "over" the well causes a substantial decrease of the reactivity. In turn, the statistical models overestimate the reactivity over the whole range of collision energies as compared with the WP-EQM method. Specifically, at sufficiently high collision energies the reaction cannot be deemed to be statistical and important dynamical effects seem to be present. In general the WP-EQM results lie in between those obtained using the QCT and SQCT methods. One of the main
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thompson, Keiran C.; Crittenden, Deborah L.; Kable, Scott H.; Jordan, Meredith J.T.
2006-01-01
Previous experimental and theoretical studies of the radical dissociation channel of T 1 acetaldehyde show conflicting behavior in the HCO and CH 3 product distributions. To resolve these conflicts, a full-dimensional potential-energy surface for the dissociation of CH 3 CHO into HCO and CH 3 fragments over the barrier on the T 1 surface is developed based on RO-CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(DZ) ab initio calculations. 20 000 classical trajectories are calculated on this surface at each of five initial excess energies, spanning the excitation energies used in previous experimental studies, and translational, vibrational, and rotational distributions of the radical products are determined. For excess energies near the dissociation threshold, both the HCO and CH 3 products are vibrationally cold; there is a small amount of HCO rotational excitation and little CH 3 rotational excitation, and the reaction energy is partitioned dominantly (>90% at threshold) into relative translational motion. Close to threshold the HCO and CH 3 rotational distributions are symmetrically shaped, resembling a Gaussian function, in agreement with observed experimental HCO rotational distributions. As the excess energy increases the calculated HCO and CH 3 rotational distributions are observed to change from a Gaussian shape at threshold to one more resembling a Boltzmann distribution, a behavior also seen by various experimental groups. Thus the distribution of energy in these rotational degrees of freedom is observed to change from nonstatistical to apparently statistical, as excess energy increases. As the energy above threshold increases all the internal and external degrees of freedom are observed to gain population at a similar rate, broadly consistent with equipartitioning of the available energy at the transition state. These observations generally support the practice of separating the reaction dynamics into two reservoirs: an impulsive reservoir, fed by the exit channel dynamics, and a
A New Statistical Tool: Scalar Score Function
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Fabián, Zdeněk
2011-01-01
Roč. 2, - (2011), s. 109-116 ISSN 1934-7332 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/1079 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : statistics * inference function * data characteristics * point estimates * heavy tails Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
Scientific projects as a way to provide dynamism in small French remote colleges.
Boer, Michel; Strajnic, Jean
Scientific projects as a way to provide dynamism in small French remote colleges. Though 77% of the French population lives in towns, they are still quite a lot of people in rural areas. The educational model has favored the proximity colleges instead of forcing the students to make long journeys to get to the school, or to be in boarding schools. This means that grade 6-9 students can be in colleges as small as 100-150 children, specifically in remote areas, e.g. in the Alpes de Haute-Provence. Though small structures have many advantages in terms of discipline and proximity of the educational team with both the students and their parents, some "conservatism" may arise from the low turnover of the population. Children stay for long in the same village, and their access to culture, activities, knowledge of the outside can be restricted, inducing a loss of dynamism. In order to fight this tendency the Observatoire de Haute-Provence has started a program together with the regional educational authorities and the teacher teams proposing to work on scientific projects in astronomy, and soon in environmental sciences. Though the children and their teachers visit OHP, and scientists the college, the idea is that the teachers and the classmates become autonomous, the link being maintained via videoconferencing and electronic blackboard. This is based also on the presence of a prominent scientific institute in a rural district.
Topology for statistical modeling of petascale data.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pascucci, Valerio (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Mascarenhas, Ajith Arthur; Rusek, Korben (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Bennett, Janine Camille; Levine, Joshua (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Gyulassy, Attila (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Thompson, David C.; Rojas, Joseph Maurice (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX)
2011-07-01
This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled 'Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data', funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program. Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is thus to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, our approach is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modeling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modeling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. This document summarizes the technical advances we have made to date that were made possible in whole or in part by MAPD funding. These technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modeling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods.
Statistical methods and their applications in constructional engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1977-01-01
An introduction into the basic terms of statistics is followed by a discussion of elements of the probability theory, customary discrete and continuous distributions, simulation methods, statistical supporting framework dynamics, and a cost-benefit analysis of the methods introduced. (RW) [de
Effective dynamics along given reaction coordinates, and reaction rate theory.
Zhang, Wei; Hartmann, Carsten; Schütte, Christof
2016-12-22
In molecular dynamics and related fields one considers dynamical descriptions of complex systems in full (atomic) detail. In order to reduce the overwhelming complexity of realistic systems (high dimension, large timescale spread, limited computational resources) the projection of the full dynamics onto some reaction coordinates is examined in order to extract statistical information like free energies or reaction rates. In this context, the effective dynamics that is induced by the full dynamics on the reaction coordinate space has attracted considerable attention in the literature. In this article, we contribute to this discussion: we first show that if we start with an ergodic diffusion process whose invariant measure is unique then these properties are inherited by the effective dynamics. Then, we give equations for the effective dynamics, discuss whether the dominant timescales and reaction rates inferred from the effective dynamics are accurate approximations of such quantities for the full dynamics, and compare our findings to results from approaches like Mori-Zwanzig, averaging, or homogenization. Finally, by discussing the algorithmic realization of the effective dynamics, we demonstrate that recent algorithmic techniques like the "equation-free" approach and the "heterogeneous multiscale method" can be seen as special cases of our approach.
Electrical engineering research support for FDOT Traffic Statistics Office
2010-03-01
The aim of this project was to provide electrical engineering support for the telemetered traffic monitoring sites (TTMSs) operated by the Statistics Office of the Florida Department of Transportation. This project was a continuation of project BD-54...
Estimation of Input Function from Dynamic PET Brain Data Using Bayesian Blind Source Separation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav
2015-01-01
Roč. 12, č. 4 (2015), s. 1273-1287 ISSN 1820-0214 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : blind source separation * Variational Bayes method * dynamic PET * input function * deconvolution Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.623, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/AS/tichy-0450509.pdf
Engineer’s estimate reliability and statistical characteristics of bids
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fariborz M. Tehrani
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The objective of this report is to provide a methodology for examining bids and evaluating the performance of engineer’s estimates in capturing the true cost of projects. This study reviews the cost development for transportation projects in addition to two sources of uncertainties in a cost estimate, including modeling errors and inherent variability. Sample projects are highway maintenance projects with a similar scope of the work, size, and schedule. Statistical analysis of engineering estimates and bids examines the adaptability of statistical models for sample projects. Further, the variation of engineering cost estimates from inception to implementation has been presented and discussed for selected projects. Moreover, the applicability of extreme values theory is assessed for available data. The results indicate that the performance of engineer’s estimate is best evaluated based on trimmed average of bids, excluding discordant bids.
Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Blanc, E.; Ceranna, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Marchetti, E.; Evers, L.G.; Kvaerna, T.; Laštovička, Jan; Eliasson, L.; Crosby, N. B.; Blanc-Benon, P.; Le Pichon, A.; Brachet, N.; Pilger, C.; Keckhut, P.; Assink, J.D.; Smets, P. S. M.; Lee, C. F.; Kero, J.; Šindelářová, Tereza; Kämpfer, N.; Rüfenacht, R.; Farges, T.; Millet, C.; Näsholm, S. P.; Gibbons, S. J.; Espy, P. J.; Hibbins, R. E.; Heinrich, P.; Ripepe, M.; Khaykin, S.; Mze, N.; Chum, Jaroslav
2018-01-01
Roč. 39, č. 2 (2018), s. 171-225 ISSN 0169-3298 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 284387 - ARISE; European Commission(XE) 653980 - ARISE2 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Atmospheric dynamics * Middle atmosphere * Infrasound * Gravity waves * Volcanoes * Atmospheric disturbances * Extreme events * stratospheric temperature trends * total solar eclipse * wave momentum flux * natural infrasound * acoustic-waves * polar-low * model simulations * sudden warmings * Doppler lidar Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.413, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-017-9444-0
Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.
2016-12-01
In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology
Pasquale, N.; Perona, P.; Verones, F.; Francis, R.; Burlando, P.
2009-12-01
River restoration projects encompass not only the amelioration of flood protection but also the rehabilitation of the riverine ecosystem. However, the interactions and feedbacks between river hydrology, riparian vegetation and aquifer dynamics are still poorly understood. Vegetation interacts with river hydrology on multiple time scales. Hence, there is considerable interest in understanding the morphodynamics of restored river reaches in relation to the characteristics of vegetation that may colonize the bare sediment, and locally stabilize it by root anchoring. In this paper we document results from a number of ongoing experiments within the project RECORD (Restored CORridor Dynamics, sponsored by CCES - www.cces.ch - and Cantons Zurich and Thurgau, CH). In particular, we discuss both the above and below ground biomass growth dynamics of 1188 Salix cuttings (individual and group survival rate, growth of the longest shoots and number of branches and morphological root analysis) in relation to local river hydrodynamics. Cuttings were organized in square plots of different size and planted in spring 2009 on a gravel island of the restored river section of River Thur in Switzerland. By periodical monitoring the plots we obtained a detailed and quite unique set of data, including root statistics of uprooted samples derived from image analysis from a high-resolution scanner. Beyond describing the survival rate dynamics in relation to river hydrology, we show the nature and strength of correlations between island topography and cutting growth statistics. In particular, by root analysis and by comparing empirical histograms of the vertical root distribution vs satured water surface in the sediment, we show that main tropic responses on such environment are oxytropism, hydrotropism and thigmotropism. The main factor influencing the survival rate is naturally found in erosion by floods, of which we also give an interesting example that helps demonstrate the role of river
Dynamical system analysis of unstable flow phenomena in centrifugal blower
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Garcia David
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Methods of dynamical system analysis were employed to analyze unsteady phenomena in a centrifugal blower. Pressure signals gathered at different control points were decomposed into their Principal Components (PCs by means of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA. Certain number of PCs was considered in the analysis based on their statistical correlation. Projection of the original signal onto its PCs allowed to draw the phase trajectory that clearly separated non-stable blower working conditions from its regular operation.
Statistical physics of networks, information and complex systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ecke, Robert E [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2009-01-01
In this project we explore the mathematical methods and concepts of statistical physics that are fmding abundant applications across the scientific and technological spectrum from soft condensed matter systems and bio-infonnatics to economic and social systems. Our approach exploits the considerable similarity of concepts between statistical physics and computer science, allowing for a powerful multi-disciplinary approach that draws its strength from cross-fertilization and mUltiple interactions of researchers with different backgrounds. The work on this project takes advantage of the newly appreciated connection between computer science and statistics and addresses important problems in data storage, decoding, optimization, the infonnation processing properties of the brain, the interface between quantum and classical infonnation science, the verification of large software programs, modeling of complex systems including disease epidemiology, resource distribution issues, and the nature of highly fluctuating complex systems. Common themes that the project has been emphasizing are (i) neural computation, (ii) network theory and its applications, and (iii) a statistical physics approach to infonnation theory. The project's efforts focus on the general problem of optimization and variational techniques, algorithm development and infonnation theoretic approaches to quantum systems. These efforts are responsible for fruitful collaborations and the nucleation of science efforts that span multiple divisions such as EES, CCS, 0 , T, ISR and P. This project supports the DOE mission in Energy Security and Nuclear Non-Proliferation by developing novel infonnation science tools for communication, sensing, and interacting complex networks such as the internet or energy distribution system. The work also supports programs in Threat Reduction and Homeland Security.
Exploring protein structure and dynamics through a project-oriented biochemistry laboratory module.
Lipchock, James M; Ginther, Patrick S; Douglas, Bonnie B; Bird, Kelly E; Patrick Loria, J
2017-09-01
Here, we present a 10-week project-oriented laboratory module designed to provide a course-based undergraduate research experience in biochemistry that emphasizes the importance of biomolecular structure and dynamics in enzyme function. This module explores the impact of mutagenesis on an important active site loop for a biomedically-relevant human enzyme, protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B). Over the course of the semester students guide their own mutant of PTP1B from conception to characterization in a cost-effective manner and gain exposure to fundamental techniques in biochemistry, including site-directed DNA mutagenesis, bacterial recombinant protein expression, affinity column purification, protein quantitation, SDS-PAGE, and enzyme kinetics. This project-based approach allows an instructor to simulate a research setting and prepare students for productive research beyond the classroom. Potential modifications to expand or contract this module are also provided. © 2017 by The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, 45(5):403-410, 2017. © 2017 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.
Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai
2018-04-01
The statistical climate downscaling model by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to a set of monthly precipitation records. The model is structured by two phases as spatial (regional) and temporal downscaling of global circulation model (GCM) scenarios. The TWF model takes into consideration the regional dependence function (RDF) for spatial structure and Markov whitening process (MWP) for temporal characteristics of the records to set projections. The impact of climate change on monthly precipitations is studied by downscaling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The main purposes are to explain the TWF statistical climate downscaling model procedures and to expose the validation tests, which are rewarded in same specifications as "very good" for all stations except one (Suhut) station in the Akarcay basin that is in the west central part of Turkey. Eventhough, the validation score is just a bit lower at the Suhut station, the results are "satisfactory." It is, therefore, possible to say that the TWF model has reasonably acceptable skill for highly accurate estimation regarding standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. Based on the validated model, precipitation predictions are generated from 2011 to 2100 by using 30-year reference observation period (1981-2010). Precipitation arithmetic average and standard deviation have less than 5% error for EH40PYC and HadCM3 SRES (A2 and B2) scenarios.
Dynamics and statistics of unstable quantum states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sokolov, V.V.; Zelevinsky, V.G.
1989-01-01
The statistical theory of spectra formulated in terms of random matrices is extended to unstable states. The energies and widths of these states are treated as real and imaginary parts of complex eigenvalues for an effective non-hermitian hamiltonian. Eigenvalue statistics are investigated under simple assumptions. If the coupling through common decay channels is weak we obtain a Wigner distribution for the level spacings and a Porter-Thomas one for the widths, with the only exception for spacings less than widths where level repulsion fades out. Meanwhile in the complex energy plane the repulsion of eigenvalues is quadratic in accordance with the T-noninvariant character of decaying systems. In the opposite case of strong coupling with the continuum, k short-lived states are formed (k is the number of open decay channels). These states accumulate almost the whole total width, the rest of the states becoming long-lived. Such a perestroika corresponds to separation of direct processes (a nuclear analogue of Dicke coherent superradiance). At small channel number, Ericson fluctuations of the cross sections are found to be suppressed. The one-channel case is considered in detail. The joint distribution of energies and widths is obtained. The average cross sections and density of unstable states are calculated. (orig.)
Visualizing Library Statistics using Open Flash Chart 2 and Drupal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laura K. Wiegand
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Libraries continue to need to demonstrate their value to stakeholders, and while statistics alone do not represent value, they are an important element. We found ourselves, and our stakeholders, uninspired by our infrequently updated bulleted list of statistics on our website and so set out to create a more dynamic and visually appealing look at our statistics. This article outlines how we used our content management system, Drupal, Open Flash Chart and custom programming to convert library statistics into Flash charts, including how to populate the graphs with dynamic data from external sources. The end result is our Library Statistics Dashboard (http://library.uncw.edu/facts_planning/dashboard that visually demonstrates the use, activity and resources in the library via interactive and visually interesting graphs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hinkle, Ross [University of Central Florida; Benscoter, Brian [Florida Atlantic University; Comas, Xavier [Florida Atlantic University; Sumner, David [USGS; DeAngelis, Donald [USGS
2015-04-07
Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regional carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.
Statistical Models for Social Networks
Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS
2011-01-01
Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For
Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui
2001-01-01
The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Parraguez, Pedro; Eppinger, Steven D.; Maier, Anja
2015-01-01
The pattern of information flow through the network of interdependent design activities is thought to be an important determinant of engineering design process results. A previously unexplored aspect of such patterns relates to the temporal dynamics of information transfer between activities...... design process and thus support theory-building toward the evolution of information flows through systems engineering stages. Implications include guidance on how to analyze and predict information flows as well as better planning of information flows in engineering design projects according...
Flores-Marquez, Leticia Elsa; Ramirez Rojaz, Alejandro; Telesca, Luciano
2015-04-01
The study of two statistical approaches is analyzed for two different types of data sets, one is the seismicity generated by the subduction processes occurred at south Pacific coast of Mexico between 2005 and 2012, and the other corresponds to the synthetic seismic data generated by a stick-slip experimental model. The statistical methods used for the present study are the visibility graph in order to investigate the time dynamics of the series and the scaled probability density function in the natural time domain to investigate the critical order of the system. This comparison has the purpose to show the similarities between the dynamical behaviors of both types of data sets, from the point of view of critical systems. The observed behaviors allow us to conclude that the experimental set up globally reproduces the behavior observed in the statistical approaches used to analyses the seismicity of the subduction zone. The present study was supported by the Bilateral Project Italy-Mexico Experimental Stick-slip models of tectonic faults: innovative statistical approaches applied to synthetic seismic sequences, jointly funded by MAECI (Italy) and AMEXCID (Mexico) in the framework of the Bilateral Agreement for Scientific and Technological Cooperation PE 2014-2016.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tinggui Chen
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Complex engineering system optimization usually involves multiple projects or tasks. On the one hand, dependency modeling among projects or tasks highlights structures in systems and their environments which can help to understand the implications of connectivity on different aspects of system performance and also assist in designing, optimizing, and maintaining complex systems. On the other hand, multiple projects or tasks are either happening at the same time or scheduled into a sequence in order to use common resources. In this paper, we propose a dynamic intelligent decision approach to dependency modeling of project tasks in complex engineering system optimization. The approach takes this decision process as a two-stage decision-making problem. In the first stage, a task clustering approach based on modularization is proposed so as to find out a suitable decomposition scheme for a large-scale project. In the second stage, according to the decomposition result, a discrete artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm inspired by the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybees is developed for the resource constrained multiproject scheduling problem. Finally, a certain case from an engineering design of a chemical processing system is utilized to help to understand the proposed approach.
Mascaró, Maite; Sacristán, Ana Isabel; Rufino, Marta M.
2016-01-01
For the past 4 years, we have been involved in a project that aims to enhance the teaching and learning of experimental analysis and statistics, of environmental and biological sciences students, through computational programming activities (using R code). In this project, through an iterative design, we have developed sequences of R-code-based…
Against Inferential Statistics: How and Why Current Statistics Teaching Gets It Wrong
White, Patrick; Gorard, Stephen
2017-01-01
Recent concerns about a shortage of capacity for statistical and numerical analysis skills among social science students and researchers have prompted a range of initiatives aiming to improve teaching in this area. However, these projects have rarely re-evaluated the content of what is taught to students and have instead focussed primarily on…
Statistics Based Models for the Dynamics of Chernivtsi Children Disease
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Igor G. Nesteruk
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Background. Simple mathematical models of contamination and SIR-model of spreading an infection were used to simulate the time dynamics of the unknown before children disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine. The cause of many cases of alopecia, which began in this city in August 1988 is still not fully clarified. According to the official report of the governmental commission, the last new cases occurred in the middle of November 1988, and the reason of the illness was reported as chemical exogenous intoxication. Later this illness became the name “Chernivtsi chemical disease”. Nevertheless, the significantly increased number of new cases of the local alopecia was registered almost three years and is still not clarified. Objective. The comparison of two different versions of the disease: chemical exogenous intoxication and infection. Identification of the parameters of mathematical models and prediction of the disease development. Methods. Analytical solutions of the contamination models and SIR-model for an epidemic are obtained. The optimal values of parameters with the use of linear regression were found. Results. The optimal values of the models parameters with the use of statistical approach were identified. The calculations showed that the infectious version of the disease is more reliable in comparison with the popular contamination one. The possible date of the epidemic beginning was estimated. Conclusions. The optimal parameters of SIR-model allow calculating the realistic number of victims and other characteristics of possible epidemic. They also show that increased number of cases of local alopecia could be a part of the same epidemic as “Chernivtsi chemical disease”.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hossein Kiani
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The present study aims to investigate the effect of work ethic culture on rework in construction projects through a review of literature, surveys, and interviews with project managers. The main research question is what mechanisms can project manager use to balance the costs of personnel training, financial and language incentives, and implementation costs to finish the project with more profit and less rework. In this regard, modelling and data analysis is done using System Dynamics methodology. The results show that by considering work ethic, rework in the project is reduced from 46 % to 39 %. However, the project has been completed with 10 % lower cost and 26 % lower variance. Integrating the issue of rework with the culture of work ethic in the field of project management by at least one exogenous parameter has been studied, while in this study qualitative parameters have been converted to quantitative parameters using fuzzy inference system. The change in management approach to the issue of work ethics and the formulation of human resource strategies of large projects by human resource managers is one of the applications of this study.
On the role of complex phases in the quantum statistics of weak measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hofmann, Holger F
2011-01-01
Weak measurements carried out between quantum state preparation and post-selection result in complex values for self-adjoint operators, corresponding to complex conditional probabilities for the projections on specific eigenstates. In this paper it is shown that the complex phases of these weak conditional probabilities describe the dynamic response of the system to unitary transformations. Quantum mechanics thus unifies the statistical overlap of different states with the dynamical structure of transformations between these states. Specifically, it is possible to identify the phase of weak conditional probabilities directly with the action of a unitary transform that maximizes the overlap of initial and final states. This action provides a quantitative measure of how much quantum correlations can diverge from the deterministic relations between physical properties expected from classical physics or hidden variable theories. In terms of quantum information, the phases of weak conditional probabilities thus represent the logical tension between sets of three quantum states that is at the heart of quantum paradoxes. (paper)
Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates
Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.
2016-12-01
Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid
Navigating Earthquake Physics with High-Resolution Array Back-Projection
Meng, Lingsen
Understanding earthquake source dynamics is a fundamental goal of geophysics. Progress toward this goal has been slow due to the gap between state-of-art earthquake simulations and the limited source imaging techniques based on conventional low-frequency finite fault inversions. Seismic array processing is an alternative source imaging technique that employs the higher frequency content of the earthquakes and provides finer detail of the source process with few prior assumptions. While the back-projection provides key observations of previous large earthquakes, the standard beamforming back-projection suffers from low resolution and severe artifacts. This thesis introduces the MUSIC technique, a high-resolution array processing method that aims to narrow the gap between the seismic observations and earthquake simulations. The MUSIC is a high-resolution method taking advantage of the higher order signal statistics. The method has not been widely used in seismology yet because of the nonstationary and incoherent nature of the seismic signal. We adapt MUSIC to transient seismic signal by incorporating the Multitaper cross-spectrum estimates. We also adopt a "reference window" strategy that mitigates the "swimming artifact," a systematic drift effect in back projection. The improved MUSIC back projections allow the imaging of recent large earthquakes in finer details which give rise to new perspectives on dynamic simulations. In the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, we observe frequency-dependent rupture behaviors which relate to the material variation along the dip of the subduction interface. In the 2012 off-Sumatra earthquake, we image the complicated ruptures involving orthogonal fault system and an usual branching direction. This result along with our complementary dynamic simulations probes the pressure-insensitive strength of the deep oceanic lithosphere. In another example, back projection is applied to the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake recorded at regional distance. The
Pimenta, Rui; Nascimento, Ana; Vieira, Margarida; Costa, Elísio
2010-01-01
In previous works, we evaluated the statistical reasoning ability acquired by health sciences’ students carrying out their final undergraduate project. We found that these students achieved a good level of statistical literacy and reasoning in descriptive statistics. However, concerning inferential statistics the students did not reach a similar level. Statistics educators therefore claim for more effective ways to learn statistics such as project based investigations. These can be simulat...
Teaching statistics a bag of tricks
Gelman, Andrew
2002-01-01
Students in the sciences, economics, psychology, social sciences, and medicine take introductory statistics. Statistics is increasingly offered at the high school level as well. However, statistics can be notoriously difficult to teach as it is seen by many students as difficult and boring, if not irrelevant to their subject of choice. To help dispel these misconceptions, Gelman and Nolan have put together this fascinating and thought-provoking book. Based on years of teachingexperience the book provides a wealth of demonstrations, examples and projects that involve active student participatio
Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L
2017-08-15
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Genton, Marc G.
2015-04-14
This paper explores the use of visualization through animations, coined visuanimation, in the field of statistics. In particular, it illustrates the embedding of animations in the paper itself and the storage of larger movies in the online supplemental material. We present results from statistics research projects using a variety of visuanimations, ranging from exploratory data analysis of image data sets to spatio-temporal extreme event modelling; these include a multiscale analysis of classification methods, the study of the effects of a simulated explosive volcanic eruption and an emulation of climate model output. This paper serves as an illustration of visuanimation for future publications in Stat. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.
Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C
2013-05-01
To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.
Hong, Mei; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Shen, Shuanghe; Singh, Vijay P.
2018-04-01
With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, this paper develops a new dynamical-statistical forecast model of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field. To avoid single initial prediction values, a self-memorization principle is introduced to improve the dynamical reconstruction model, thus making the model more appropriate for describing such chaotic systems as ENSO events. The improved dynamical-statistical model of the SSTA field is used to predict SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific and during El Niño and La Niña events. The long-term step-by-step forecast results and cross-validated retroactive hindcast results of time series T1 and T2 are found to be satisfactory, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of approximately 0.80 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 15 %. The corresponding forecast SSTA field is accurate in that not only is the forecast shape similar to the actual field but also the contour lines are essentially the same. This model can also be used to forecast the ENSO index. The temporal correlation coefficient is 0.8062, and the MAPE value of 19.55 % is small. The difference between forecast results in spring and those in autumn is not high, indicating that the improved model can overcome the spring predictability barrier to some extent. Compared with six mature models published previously, the present model has an advantage in prediction precision and length, and is a novel exploration of the ENSO forecast method.
Keys, Yolanda; Silverman, Susan R; Evans, Jennie
2017-10-01
The purpose of this study was to collect the perceptions of design professionals and clinicians regarding design process success strategies and elements of interprofessional engagement and communication during healthcare design and construction projects. Additional objectives were to gather best practices to maximize clinician engagement and provide tools and techniques to improve interdisciplinary collaboration for future projects. Strategies are needed to enhance the design and construction process and create interactions that benefit not only the project but the individuals working to see its completion. Meaningful interprofessional collaboration is essential to any healthcare design project and making sure the various players communicate is a critical element. This was a qualitative study conducted via an online survey. Respondents included architects, construction managers, interior designers, and healthcare personnel who had recently been involved in a building renovation or new construction project for a healthcare facility. Responses to open-ended questions were analyzed for themes, and descriptive statistics were used to provide insight into participant demographics. Information on the impressions, perceptions, and opportunities related to clinician involvement in design projects was collected from nurses, architects, interior designers, and construction managers. Qualitative analysis revealed themes of clinician input, organizational dynamics, and a variety of communication strategies to be the most frequently mentioned elements of successful interprofessional collaboration. This study validates the need to include clinician input in the design process, to consider the importance of organizational dynamics on design team functioning, and to incorporate effective communication strategies during design and construction projects.
Enterprise Human Resources Integration-Statistical Data Mart (EHRI-SDM) Dynamics Data
Office of Personnel Management — The Enterprise Human Resources Integration-Statistical Data Mart (EHRI-SDM) is a statistically cleansed sub-set of the data contained in the EHRI data warehouse. It...
42 CFR 56.603 - Project elements.
2010-10-01
... set forth in the most recent CSA Poverty Income Guidelines (42 CFR 1060.2) (except that nominal fees... statistical data, cost accounting, management information, and reporting or monitoring systems which will meet the project's management needs and shall enable the project to provide such statistics and other...
Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.
Sigmund Freud and his associates did much clinical work with the dynamic of projection, especially with regard to paranoid symptoms and syndromes. Much experimental work has also been done with projection. Sears evaluated the results of some of those studies. Murstein and Pryer sub-classified projection and reviewed typical studies. The…
Statistical mechanics of solitons
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bishop, A.
1980-01-01
The status of statistical mechanics theory (classical and quantum, statics and dynamics) is reviewed for 1-D soliton or solitary-wave-bearing systems. Primary attention is given to (i) perspective for existing results with evaluation and representative literature guide; (ii) motivation and status report for remaining problems; (iii) discussion of connections with other 1-D topics
Strohmaier, Markus; Walk, Simon; Pöschko, Jan; Lamprecht, Daniel; Tudorache, Tania; Nyulas, Csongor; Musen, Mark A; Noy, Natalya F
2013-05-01
Traditionally, evaluation methods in the field of semantic technologies have focused on the end result of ontology engineering efforts, mainly, on evaluating ontologies and their corresponding qualities and characteristics. This focus has led to the development of a whole arsenal of ontology-evaluation techniques that investigate the quality of ontologies as a product . In this paper, we aim to shed light on the process of ontology engineering construction by introducing and applying a set of measures to analyze hidden social dynamics. We argue that especially for ontologies which are constructed collaboratively, understanding the social processes that have led to its construction is critical not only in understanding but consequently also in evaluating the ontology. With the work presented in this paper, we aim to expose the texture of collaborative ontology engineering processes that is otherwise left invisible. Using historical change-log data, we unveil qualitative differences and commonalities between different collaborative ontology engineering projects. Explaining and understanding these differences will help us to better comprehend the role and importance of social factors in collaborative ontology engineering projects. We hope that our analysis will spur a new line of evaluation techniques that view ontologies not as the static result of deliberations among domain experts, but as a dynamic, collaborative and iterative process that needs to be understood, evaluated and managed in itself. We believe that advances in this direction would help our community to expand the existing arsenal of ontology evaluation techniques towards more holistic approaches.
Strohmaier, Markus; Walk, Simon; Pöschko, Jan; Lamprecht, Daniel; Tudorache, Tania; Nyulas, Csongor; Musen, Mark A.; Noy, Natalya F.
2013-01-01
Traditionally, evaluation methods in the field of semantic technologies have focused on the end result of ontology engineering efforts, mainly, on evaluating ontologies and their corresponding qualities and characteristics. This focus has led to the development of a whole arsenal of ontology-evaluation techniques that investigate the quality of ontologies as a product. In this paper, we aim to shed light on the process of ontology engineering construction by introducing and applying a set of measures to analyze hidden social dynamics. We argue that especially for ontologies which are constructed collaboratively, understanding the social processes that have led to its construction is critical not only in understanding but consequently also in evaluating the ontology. With the work presented in this paper, we aim to expose the texture of collaborative ontology engineering processes that is otherwise left invisible. Using historical change-log data, we unveil qualitative differences and commonalities between different collaborative ontology engineering projects. Explaining and understanding these differences will help us to better comprehend the role and importance of social factors in collaborative ontology engineering projects. We hope that our analysis will spur a new line of evaluation techniques that view ontologies not as the static result of deliberations among domain experts, but as a dynamic, collaborative and iterative process that needs to be understood, evaluated and managed in itself. We believe that advances in this direction would help our community to expand the existing arsenal of ontology evaluation techniques towards more holistic approaches. PMID:24311994
Alunno-bruscia, Marianne; Van Der Veer, Henk; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.
2011-01-01
This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years’ project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs ...
Finkelstein, Michael O
2015-01-01
This classic text, first published in 1990, is designed to introduce law students, law teachers, practitioners, and judges to the basic ideas of mathematical probability and statistics as they have been applied in the law. The third edition includes over twenty new sections, including the addition of timely topics, like New York City police stops, exonerations in death-sentence cases, projecting airline costs, and new material on various statistical techniques such as the randomized response survey technique, rare-events meta-analysis, competing risks, and negative binomial regression. The book consists of sections of exposition followed by real-world cases and case studies in which statistical data have played a role. The reader is asked to apply the theory to the facts, to calculate results (a hand calculator is sufficient), and to explore legal issues raised by quantitative findings. The authors' calculations and comments are given in the back of the book. As with previous editions, the cases and case stu...
Kinetic parameter estimation from SPECT cone-beam projection measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huesman, Ronald H.; Reutter, Bryan W.; Zeng, G. Larry; Gullberg, Grant T.
1998-01-01
Kinetic parameters are commonly estimated from dynamically acquired nuclear medicine data by first reconstructing a dynamic sequence of images and subsequently fitting the parameters to time-activity curves generated from regions of interest overlaid upon the image sequence. Biased estimates can result from images reconstructed using inconsistent projections of a time-varying distribution of radiopharmaceutical acquired by a rotating SPECT system. If the SPECT data are acquired using cone-beam collimators wherein the gantry rotates so that the focal point of the collimators always remains in a plane, additional biases can arise from images reconstructed using insufficient, as well as truncated, projection samples. To overcome these problems we have investigated the estimation of kinetic parameters directly from SPECT cone-beam projection data by modelling the data acquisition process. To accomplish this it was necessary to parametrize the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical within the SPECT field of view. In a simulated chest image volume, kinetic parameters were estimated for simple one-compartment models for four myocardial regions of interest. Myocardial uptake and washout parameters estimated by conventional analysis of noiseless simulated cone-beam data had biases ranging between 3-26% and 0-28%, respectively. Parameters estimated directly from the noiseless projection data were unbiased as expected, since the model used for fitting was faithful to the simulation. Statistical uncertainties of parameter estimates for 10 000 000 events ranged between 0.2-9% for the uptake parameters and between 0.3-6% for the washout parameters. (author)
Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization
Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.
2013-01-01
Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.
Nonequilibrium Statistical Operator Method and Generalized Kinetic Equations
Kuzemsky, A. L.
2018-01-01
We consider some principal problems of nonequilibrium statistical thermodynamics in the framework of the Zubarev nonequilibrium statistical operator approach. We present a brief comparative analysis of some approaches to describing irreversible processes based on the concept of nonequilibrium Gibbs ensembles and their applicability to describing nonequilibrium processes. We discuss the derivation of generalized kinetic equations for a system in a heat bath. We obtain and analyze a damped Schrödinger-type equation for a dynamical system in a heat bath. We study the dynamical behavior of a particle in a medium taking the dissipation effects into account. We consider the scattering problem for neutrons in a nonequilibrium medium and derive a generalized Van Hove formula. We show that the nonequilibrium statistical operator method is an effective, convenient tool for describing irreversible processes in condensed matter.
Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald
2015-04-01
Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but
Mocapy++ - A toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hamelryck Thomas
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs. It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations. Results The program package is freely available under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL from SourceForge http://sourceforge.net/projects/mocapy. The package contains the source for building the Mocapy++ library, several usage examples and the user manual. Conclusions Mocapy++ is especially suitable for constructing probabilistic models of biomolecular structure, due to its support for directional statistics. In particular, it supports the Kent distribution on the sphere and the bivariate von Mises distribution on the torus. These distributions have proven useful to formulate probabilistic models of protein and RNA structure in atomic detail.
Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio
2012-09-01
In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007), 10.1063/1.2430711]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constraints are introduced by considering a scrambling matrix which depends on energy and determine the probability of the identity/hop/exchange mechanisms. These probabilities are calculated using QCT. It is found that the high zero-point energy of the fragments is transferred to the rest of the degrees of freedom, what shortens the lifetime of H_5^+ complexes and, as a consequence, the exchange mechanism is produced with lower proportion. The zero-point energy (ZPE) is not properly described in quasi-classical trajectory calculations and an approximation is done in which the initial ZPE of the reactants is reduced in QCT calculations to obtain a new ZPE-biased scrambling matrix. This reduction of the ZPE is explained by the need of correcting the pure classical level number of the H_5^+ complex, as done in classical simulations of unimolecular processes and to get equivalent quantum and classical rate constants using Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory. This matrix allows to obtain a ratio of hop/exchange mechanisms, α(T), in rather good agreement with recent experimental results by Crabtree et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 194311 (2011), 10.1063/1.3587246] at room temperature. At lower temperatures, however, the present simulations predict too high ratios because the biased scrambling matrix is not statistical enough. This demonstrates the importance of applying quantum methods to simulate this reaction at the low temperatures of astrophysical interest.
Dynamic Statistical Models for Pyroclastic Density Current Generation at Soufrière Hills Volcano
Wolpert, Robert L.; Spiller, Elaine T.; Calder, Eliza S.
2018-05-01
To mitigate volcanic hazards from pyroclastic density currents, volcanologists generate hazard maps that provide long-term forecasts of areas of potential impact. Several recent efforts in the field develop new statistical methods for application of flow models to generate fully probabilistic hazard maps that both account for, and quantify, uncertainty. However a limitation to the use of most statistical hazard models, and a key source of uncertainty within them, is the time-averaged nature of the datasets by which the volcanic activity is statistically characterized. Where the level, or directionality, of volcanic activity frequently changes, e.g. during protracted eruptive episodes, or at volcanoes that are classified as persistently active, it is not appropriate to make short term forecasts based on longer time-averaged metrics of the activity. Thus, here we build, fit and explore dynamic statistical models for the generation of pyroclastic density current from Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on Montserrat including their respective collapse direction and flow volumes based on 1996-2008 flow datasets. The development of this approach allows for short-term behavioral changes to be taken into account in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments. We show that collapses from the SHV lava dome follow a clear pattern, and that a series of smaller flows in a given direction often culminate in a larger collapse and thereafter directionality of the flows change. Such models enable short term forecasting (weeks to months) that can reflect evolving conditions such as dome and crater morphology changes and non-stationary eruptive behavior such as extrusion rate variations. For example, the probability of inundation of the Belham Valley in the first 180 days of a forecast period is about twice as high for lava domes facing Northwest toward that valley as it is for domes pointing East toward the Tar River Valley. As rich multi-parametric volcano monitoring dataset become
Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E
2011-04-01
Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Interrupted Time Series Versus Statistical Process Control in Quality Improvement Projects.
Andersson Hagiwara, Magnus; Andersson Gäre, Boel; Elg, Mattias
2016-01-01
To measure the effect of quality improvement interventions, it is appropriate to use analysis methods that measure data over time. Examples of such methods include statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis. This article compares the use of statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis for evaluating the longitudinal effects of quality improvement interventions, using an example study on an evaluation of a computerized decision support system.
Borehole induction logging for the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project LLNL gasoline spill site
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boyd, S.; Newmark, R.; Wilt, M.
1994-01-01
Borehole induction logs were acquired for the purpose of characterizing subsurface physical properties and monitoring steam clean up activities at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work was part of the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project's demonstrated clean up of a gasoline spin. The site is composed of unconsolidated days, sands and gravels which contain gasoline both above and below the water table. Induction logs were used to characterize lithology, to provide ''ground truth'' resistivity values for electrical resistance tomography (ERT), and to monitor the movement of an underground steam plume used to heat the soil and drive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the extraction wells
Statistical ecology comes of age
Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric
2014-01-01
The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151
Statistical ecology comes of age.
Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric
2014-12-01
The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.
Detection and statistics of gusts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hannesdóttir, Ásta; Kelly, Mark C.; Mann, Jakob
In this project, a more realistic representation of gusts, based on statistical analysis, will account for the variability observed in real-world gusts. The gust representation will focus on temporal, spatial, and velocity scales that are relevant for modern wind turbines and which possibly affect...
Statistics and dynamics of strongly collective nuclear processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blocki, J.
1985-01-01
A short introduction to the published and not yet published papers is presented. Two methods of the dynamical calculations - a classical and a selfconsistent quantum mechanical (TDHF) one are discussed. The most interesting results are presented. All the limitations in the use of both methods are also given. 26 refs. (author)
Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel
2002-01-01
Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002
Team dynamics in complex projects
Oeij, P.; Vroome, E.E.M. de; Dhondt, S.; Gaspersz, J.B.R.
2012-01-01
Complexity of projects is hotly debated and a factor which affects innovativeness of team performance. Much attention in the past is paid to technical complexity and many issues are related to natural and physical sciences. A growing awareness of the importance of socioorganisational issues is
Microscopic theory of nuclear collective dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sakata, Fumihiko; Marumori, Toshio; Hashimoto, Yukio; Tsukuma, Hidehiko; Yamamoto, Yoshifumi; Iwasawa, Kazuo.
1990-10-01
A recent development of the INS-TSUKUBA joint research project on large-amplitude collective motion is summarized by putting special emphasis on an inter-relationship between quantum chaos and nuclear spectroscopy. Aiming at introducing various concepts used in this lecture, we start with recapitulating the semi-classical theory of nuclear collective dynamics formulated within the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) theory. The central part of the semi-classical theory is provided by the self-consistent collective coordinate (SCC) method which has been developed to properly take account of the non-linear dynamics specific for the finite many-body quantum system. A decisive role of the level crossing dynamics on the order-to-chaos transition of collective motion is discussed in detail. Extending the basic idea of the semi-classical theory, we discuss a full quantum theory of nuclear collective dynamics which allows us to properly define a concept of the quantum integrability as well as the quantum chaoticity for each eigenfunction. The lecture is arranged so as to clearly show the similar structure between the semi-classical and quantum theories of nuclear collective dynamics. Using numerical calculations, we illustrate what the quantum chaos for each eigenfunction means and relate it to the usual definition of quantum chaos for nearest neighbor level spacing statistics based on the random matrix theory. (author)
Application of pedagogy reflective in statistical methods course and practicum statistical methods
Julie, Hongki
2017-08-01
Subject Elementary Statistics, Statistical Methods and Statistical Methods Practicum aimed to equip students of Mathematics Education about descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The students' understanding about descriptive and inferential statistics were important for students on Mathematics Education Department, especially for those who took the final task associated with quantitative research. In quantitative research, students were required to be able to present and describe the quantitative data in an appropriate manner, to make conclusions from their quantitative data, and to create relationships between independent and dependent variables were defined in their research. In fact, when students made their final project associated with quantitative research, it was not been rare still met the students making mistakes in the steps of making conclusions and error in choosing the hypothetical testing process. As a result, they got incorrect conclusions. This is a very fatal mistake for those who did the quantitative research. There were some things gained from the implementation of reflective pedagogy on teaching learning process in Statistical Methods and Statistical Methods Practicum courses, namely: 1. Twenty two students passed in this course and and one student did not pass in this course. 2. The value of the most accomplished student was A that was achieved by 18 students. 3. According all students, their critical stance could be developed by them, and they could build a caring for each other through a learning process in this course. 4. All students agreed that through a learning process that they undergo in the course, they can build a caring for each other.
Pavlos, George; Malandraki, Olga; Pavlos, Evgenios; Iliopoulos, Aggelos; Karakatsanis, Leonidas
2017-04-01
-entropy principle can explain the emergence of a series of new and significant physical characteristics in distributed systems as well as in space plasmas. Such characteristics are: non-Gaussian statistics and anomalous diffusion processes, strange and fractional dynamics, multifractal, percolating and intermittent turbulence structures, multiscale and long spatio-temporal correlations, fractional acceleration and Non-Equilibrium Stationary States (NESS) or non-equilibrium self-organization process and non-equilibrium phase transition and topological phase transition processes according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004). In this direction, our results reveal clearly strong self-organization and development of macroscopic ordering of plasma system related to strengthen of non-extensivity, multifractality and intermittency everywhere in the space plasmas region during the CME event. Acknowledgements: This project has received funding form the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 637324.
Fractional Dynamics Applications of Fractional Calculus to Dynamics of Particles, Fields and Media
Tarasov, Vasily E
2010-01-01
"Fractional Dynamics: Applications of Fractional Calculus to Dynamics of Particles, Fields and Media" presents applications of fractional calculus, integral and differential equations of non-integer orders in describing systems with long-time memory, non-local spatial and fractal properties. Mathematical models of fractal media and distributions, generalized dynamical systems and discrete maps, non-local statistical mechanics and kinetics, dynamics of open quantum systems, the hydrodynamics and electrodynamics of complex media with non-local properties and memory are considered. This book is intended to meet the needs of scientists and graduate students in physics, mechanics and applied mathematics who are interested in electrodynamics, statistical and condensed matter physics, quantum dynamics, complex media theories and kinetics, discrete maps and lattice models, and nonlinear dynamics and chaos. Dr. Vasily E. Tarasov is a Senior Research Associate at Nuclear Physics Institute of Moscow State University and...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shi Yin
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Nowadays, due to the lack of natural resources and environment problems which have been appearing increasingly, green building is more and more involved in the construction industry. The evaluation and selection of green supplier are a significant part of the development of green building. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic multicriteria decision-making approach in construction projects under time sequence to deal with these problems. First, the paper establishes 4 main criteria and 17 subcriteria for green supplier selection in construction projects. Then, a method considering interaction between criteria and the influence of constructors subjective preference and objective criteria information is proposed. It uses the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy geometric weighted Heronian means (IVIFGWHM operator and multitarget nonlinear programming model to calculate the comprehensive evaluation results of potential green suppliers. The proposed method is much easier for constructors to select green supplier and make the localization of green supplier more practical and accurate in construction projects. Finally, a case study about a green building project is given to verify practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Statistically significant relational data mining :
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Berry, Jonathan W.; Leung, Vitus Joseph; Phillips, Cynthia Ann; Pinar, Ali; Robinson, David Gerald; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Bhowmick, Sanjukta; Casleton, Emily; Kaiser, Mark; Nordman, Daniel J.; Wilson, Alyson G.
2014-02-01
This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.
Hawe, David; Hernández Fernández, Francisco R; O'Suilleabháin, Liam; Huang, Jian; Wolsztynski, Eric; O'Sullivan, Finbarr
2012-05-01
In dynamic mode, positron emission tomography (PET) can be used to track the evolution of injected radio-labelled molecules in living tissue. This is a powerful diagnostic imaging technique that provides a unique opportunity to probe the status of healthy and pathological tissue by examining how it processes substrates. The spatial aspect of PET is well established in the computational statistics literature. This article focuses on its temporal aspect. The interpretation of PET time-course data is complicated because the measured signal is a combination of vascular delivery and tissue retention effects. If the arterial time-course is known, the tissue time-course can typically be expressed in terms of a linear convolution between the arterial time-course and the tissue residue. In statistical terms, the residue function is essentially a survival function - a familiar life-time data construct. Kinetic analysis of PET data is concerned with estimation of the residue and associated functionals such as flow, flux, volume of distribution and transit time summaries. This review emphasises a nonparametric approach to the estimation of the residue based on a piecewise linear form. Rapid implementation of this by quadratic programming is described. The approach provides a reference for statistical assessment of widely used one- and two-compartmental model forms. We illustrate the method with data from two of the most well-established PET radiotracers, (15)O-H(2)O and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose, used for assessment of blood perfusion and glucose metabolism respectively. The presentation illustrates the use of two open-source tools, AMIDE and R, for PET scan manipulation and model inference.
Plasma turbulence. Structure formation, selection rule, dynamic response and dynamics transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ito, Sanae I.
2010-01-01
The five-year project of Grant-in-Aid for Specially Promoted Research entitled general research on the structure formation and selection rule in plasma turbulence had brought many outcomes. Based on these outcomes, the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) program entitled general research on dynamic response and dynamic transport in plasma turbulence has started. In the present paper, the state-of-the-art of the research activities on the structure formation, selection rule and dynamics in plasma turbulence are reviewed with reference to outcomes of these projects. (author)
Experimental signature for statistical multifragmentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moretto, L.G.; Delis, D.N.; Wozniak, G.J.
1993-01-01
Multifragment production was measured for the 60 MeV/nucleon 197 Au+ 27 Al, 51 V, and nat Cu reactions. The branching ratios for binary, ternary, quaternary, and quinary decays were determined as a function of the excitation energy E and are independent of the target. The logarithms of these branching ratios when plotted vs E -1/2 show a linear dependence that strongly suggests a statistical competition between the various multifragmentation channels. This behavior seems to relegate the role of dynamics to the formation of the sources, which then proceed to decay in an apparently statistical manner
A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hal Caswell
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Background: The gamma-Gompertz model is a fixed frailty model in which baseline mortality increasesexponentially with age, frailty has a proportional effect on mortality, and frailty at birth follows a gamma distribution. Mortality selects against the more frail, so the marginal mortality rate decelerates, eventually reaching an asymptote. The gamma-Gompertz is one of a wider class of frailty models, characterized by the choice of baseline mortality, effects of frailty, distributions of frailty, and assumptions about the dynamics of frailty. Objective: To develop a matrix model to compute all the statistical properties of longevity from thegamma-Gompertz and related models. Methods: I use the vec-permutation matrix formulation to develop a model in which individuals are jointly classified by age and frailty. The matrix is used to project the age and frailty dynamicsof a cohort and the fundamental matrix is used to obtain the statistics of longevity. Results: The model permits calculation of the mean, variance, coefficient of variation, skewness and all moments of longevity, the marginal mortality and survivorship functions, the dynamics of the frailty distribution, and other quantities. The matrix formulation extends naturally to other frailty models. I apply the analysis to the gamma-Gompertz model (for humans and laboratory animals, the gamma-Makeham model, and the gamma-Siler model, and to a hypothetical dynamic frailty model characterized by diffusion of frailty with reflecting boundaries.The matrix model permits partitioning the variance in longevity into components due to heterogeneity and to individual stochasticity. In several published human data sets, heterogeneity accounts for less than 10Š of the variance in longevity. In laboratory populations of five invertebrate animal species, heterogeneity accounts for 46Š to 83Š ofthe total variance in longevity.
Southern Sierra Nevada Continental Dynamics Project: 1993 field observations of the NPE
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Keller, G.R. [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States); Malin, P.E. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States); Ruppert, S.D. [LLNL, Livermore, CA (United States)
1994-12-31
The Southern Sierra Nevada Continental Dynamics Project is a multidisciplinary, multi-institutional investigation of the cause of the uplift of the Sierra Nevada and its relationship to extension in the adjacent Basin and Range. A broad range of geologic and geophysical data have been collected as part of this project. These data include both passive and active seismic measurements, as well as gravity and magnetotelluric observations. Three seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection profiles were recorded: (1) a 325-km-long, north-south profile extending from just east of Mono Lake south across the Garlock fault, (2) a 400-km-long, east-west profile extending from Death Valley west across the Sierra Nevada to near the San Andreas fault, and (3) a 480-km-long, east-west profile deployed for the NPE. This profile extended from Beatty, Nevada, west across the Sierra Nevada along the previously recorded east-west profile and continued nearly to the Pacific Ocean. Up to 675 seismic recorders were deployed for each profile. These data are allowing us to develop refined models of the crustal and upper mantle structure of the southern Sierra Nevada and to evaluate alternative hypotheses for its uplift and for Basin and Range extension. They also provide insight into the propagation of regional phases across complex structures.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. N. Mamedbekov
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper considers the dynamics of the abscissa and ordinate points in the far zone meridian six degree conformal Gauss-Kruger projection. Performed calculations and graphical representation of the classic formulas of conformal projection.
Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lesner, Rune Vammen
. It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure but increases in job transitions and that the fraction of women in high-ranking positions within a firm does......This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market...... not affect the level of statistical discrimination by gender....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brekke, L.
2008-01-01
This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs
Statistical constraints on binary black hole inspiral dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Galley, Chad R; Herrmann, Frank; Silberholz, John; Tiglio, Manuel [Department of Physics, Center for Fundamental Physics, Center for Scientific Computation and Mathematical Modeling, Joint Space Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Guerberoff, Gustavo, E-mail: tiglio@umd.ed [Facultad de IngenierIa, Instituto de Matematica y EstadIstica, ' Prof. Ing. Rafael Laguardia' , Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo (Uruguay)
2010-12-21
We perform a statistical analysis of binary black holes in the post-Newtonian approximation by systematically sampling and evolving the parameter space of initial configurations for quasi-circular inspirals. Through a principal component analysis of spin and orbital angular momentum variables, we systematically look for uncorrelated quantities and find three of them which are highly conserved in a statistical sense, both as functions of time and with respect to variations in initial spin orientations. For example, we find a combination of spin scalar products, 2S-circumflex{sub 1{center_dot}}S-circumflex{sub 2} + (S-circumflex{sub 1{center_dot}}L-circumflex) (S-circumflex{sub 2{center_dot}}L-circumflex), that is exactly conserved in time at the considered post-Newtonian order (including spin-spin and radiative effects) for binaries with equal masses and spin magnitudes evolving in a quasi-circular inspiral. We also look for and find the variables that account for the largest variations in the problem. We present binary black hole simulations of the full Einstein equations analyzing to what extent these results might carry over to the full theory in the inspiral and merger regimes. Among other applications these results should be useful both in semi-analytical and numerical building of templates of gravitational waves for gravitational wave detectors.
Testing for Statistical Discrimination based on Gender
Lesner, Rune Vammen
2016-01-01
This paper develops a model which incorporates the two most commonly cited strands of the literature on statistical discrimination, namely screening discrimination and stereotyping. The model is used to provide empirical evidence of statistical discrimination based on gender in the labour market. It is shown that the implications of both screening discrimination and stereotyping are consistent with observable wage dynamics. In addition, it is found that the gender wage gap decreases in tenure...
Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio
2012-09-07
In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007)]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constraints are introduced by considering a scrambling matrix which depends on energy and determine the probability of the identity/hop/exchange mechanisms. These probabilities are calculated using QCT. It is found that the high zero-point energy of the fragments is transferred to the rest of the degrees of freedom, what shortens the lifetime of H(5)(+) complexes and, as a consequence, the exchange mechanism is produced with lower proportion. The zero-point energy (ZPE) is not properly described in quasi-classical trajectory calculations and an approximation is done in which the initial ZPE of the reactants is reduced in QCT calculations to obtain a new ZPE-biased scrambling matrix. This reduction of the ZPE is explained by the need of correcting the pure classical level number of the H(5)(+) complex, as done in classical simulations of unimolecular processes and to get equivalent quantum and classical rate constants using Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory. This matrix allows to obtain a ratio of hop/exchange mechanisms, α(T), in rather good agreement with recent experimental results by Crabtree et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 194311 (2011)] at room temperature. At lower temperatures, however, the present simulations predict too high ratios because the biased scrambling matrix is not statistical enough. This demonstrates the importance of applying quantum methods to simulate this reaction at the low temperatures of astrophysical interest.
High Brightness HDR Projection Using Dynamic Freeform Lensing
Damberg, Gerwin
2016-05-03
Cinema projectors need to compete with home theater displays in terms of image quality. High frame rate and spatial resolution as well as stereoscopic 3D are common features today, but even the most advanced cinema projectors lack in-scene contrast and, more important, high peak luminance, both of which are essential perceptual attributes of images appearing realistic. At the same time, HDR image statistics suggest that the average image intensity in a controlled ambient viewing environment such as the cinema can be as low as 1% for cinematic HDR content and not often higher than 18%, middle gray in photography. Traditional projection systems form images and colors by blocking the source light from a lamp, therefore attenuating between 99% and 82% of light, on average. This inefficient use of light poses significant challenges for achieving higher peak brightness levels. In this work, we propose a new projector architecture built around commercially available components, in which light can be steered to form images. The gain in system efficiency significantly reduces the total cost of ownership of a projector (fewer components and lower operating cost), and at the same time increases peak luminance and improves black level beyond what is practically achievable with incumbent projector technologies. At the heart of this computational display technology is a new projector hardware design using phase modulation in combination with a new optimization algorithm that is capable of on-the-fly computation of freeform lens surfaces. © 2016 ACM.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haydee Salmun
2015-02-01
Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.
Experimental design techniques in statistical practice a practical software-based approach
Gardiner, W P
1998-01-01
Provides an introduction to the diverse subject area of experimental design, with many practical and applicable exercises to help the reader understand, present and analyse the data. The pragmatic approach offers technical training for use of designs and teaches statistical and non-statistical skills in design and analysis of project studies throughout science and industry. Provides an introduction to the diverse subject area of experimental design and includes practical and applicable exercises to help understand, present and analyse the data Offers technical training for use of designs and teaches statistical and non-statistical skills in design and analysis of project studies throughout science and industry Discusses one-factor designs and blocking designs, factorial experimental designs, Taguchi methods and response surface methods, among other topics.
Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eggett, D.L.
1988-07-01
As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs
Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.
2017-12-01
The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to
THE FLUORBOARD A STATISTICALLY BASED DASHBOARD METHOD FOR IMPROVING SAFETY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
PREVETTE, S.S.
2005-01-01
The FluorBoard is a statistically based dashboard method for improving safety. Fluor Hanford has achieved significant safety improvements--including more than a 80% reduction in OSHA cases per 200,000 hours, during its work at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state. The massive project on the former nuclear materials production site is considered one of the largest environmental cleanup projects in the world. Fluor Hanford's safety improvements were achieved by a committed partnering of workers, managers, and statistical methodology. Safety achievements at the site have been due to a systematic approach to safety. This includes excellent cooperation between the field workers, the safety professionals, and management through OSHA Voluntary Protection Program principles. Fluor corporate values are centered around safety, and safety excellence is important for every manager in every project. In addition, Fluor Hanford has utilized a rigorous approach to using its safety statistics, based upon Dr. Shewhart's control charts, and Dr. Deming's management and quality methods
Project Leadership and Quality Performance of Construction Projects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
SPG Buba
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Background: The construction industry in Nigeria, is pigeonholed by poor quality of construction products as a result of the inherent corruption in the country. Lack of purposeful leadership and inappropriate choice of leadership styles in the industry have been attributed to project failure. Abandoned and failed projects are more predominant in the public sector which litters every corner of the country. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of leadership styles on quality performance criteria of public projects in Nigeria. Methodology: A total of 43 questionnaires were distributed to 3 key groups of respondents (Quantity Surveyors, Builders, and Architects who are project managers in Nigeria. Descriptive and Inferential statistics were used to analyse the data using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS. Likert Scale was used to measure the independent variables (leadership style: facilitative, coaching, delegating and directing; and the level of achievement of projects based on the dependent variables (quality and function performance criteria which are: achieving highest aesthetic quality; and functional building that fits its purpose. Findings: The study revealed that Directing is the major leadership style used by project managers in Nigeria. Amongst the leadership styles which has the most impact on quality performance indicators is also directing which has the most relative influence on achieving highest aesthetic quality and functional building that fits its purpose. Conclusion/Recommendation/Way forward: The underlying relationship between Directing leadership styles and the performance criteria of achieving highest aesthetic quality and functional building that fits its purpose will be beneficial to the Nigerian construction environment.
The value of statistical tools to detect data fabrication
Hartgerink, C.H.J.; Wicherts, J.M.; van Assen, M.A.L.M.
2016-01-01
We aim to investigate how statistical tools can help detect potential data fabrication in the social- and medical sciences. In this proposal we outline three projects to assess the value of such statistical tools to detect potential data fabrication and make the first steps in order to apply them
Kim, Kiyeon; Omori, Ryosuke; Ito, Kimihito
2017-12-01
The estimation of the basic reproduction number is essential to understand epidemic dynamics, and time series data of infected individuals are usually used for the estimation. However, such data are not always available. Methods to estimate the basic reproduction number using genealogy constructed from nucleotide sequences of pathogens have been proposed so far. Here, we propose a new method to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks using the time series change of Tajima's D statistic on the nucleotide sequences of pathogens. To relate the time evolution of Tajima's D to the number of infected individuals, we constructed a parsimonious mathematical model describing both the transmission process of pathogens among hosts and the evolutionary process of the pathogens. As a case study we applied this method to the field data of nucleotide sequences of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses collected in Argentina. The Tajima's D-based method estimated basic reproduction number to be 1.55 with 95% highest posterior density (HPD) between 1.31 and 2.05, and the date of epidemic peak to be 10th July with 95% HPD between 22nd June and 9th August. The estimated basic reproduction number was consistent with estimation by birth-death skyline plot and estimation using the time series of the number of infected individuals. These results suggested that Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens could be useful to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Young, Claudia J.; Dahal, Devendra; Sohl, Terry L.; Davis, Brian
2015-01-01
Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is widely considered as a realistic option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, this potential may be threatened by global changes including climate, land use, and management changes such as increased corn stover harvesting for rising production of cellulosic biofuel. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional or global scale. This study simulated the corn production and spatiotemporal changes of SOC in the U.S. Temperate Prairies, which covers over one-third of the U.S. corn acreage, using a biogeochemical model with multiple climate and land-use change projections. The corn production (either grain yield or stover biomass) could reach 88.7–104.7 TgC as of 2050, 70–101% increase when compared to the base year of 2010. A removal of 50% stover at the regional scale could be a reasonable cap in view of maintaining SOC content and soil fertility especially in the beginning years. The projected SOC dynamics indicated that the average carbon sequestration potential across the entire region may vary from 12.7 to 19.6 g C/m2/yr (i.e., 6.6–10.2 g TgC/yr). This study not only helps understand SOC dynamics but also provides decision support for sustainable biofuel development.
Spezia, Riccardo; Martínez-Nuñez, Emilio; Vazquez, Saulo; Hase, William L
2017-04-28
In this Introduction, we show the basic problems of non-statistical and non-equilibrium phenomena related to the papers collected in this themed issue. Over the past few years, significant advances in both computing power and development of theories have allowed the study of larger systems, increasing the time length of simulations and improving the quality of potential energy surfaces. In particular, the possibility of using quantum chemistry to calculate energies and forces 'on the fly' has paved the way to directly study chemical reactions. This has provided a valuable tool to explore molecular mechanisms at given temperatures and energies and to see whether these reactive trajectories follow statistical laws and/or minimum energy pathways. This themed issue collects different aspects of the problem and gives an overview of recent works and developments in different contexts, from the gas phase to the condensed phase to excited states.This article is part of the themed issue 'Theoretical and computational studies of non-equilibrium and non-statistical dynamics in the gas phase, in the condensed phase and at interfaces'. © 2017 The Author(s).
The System of Indicators for the Statistical Evaluation of Market Conjuncture
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chernenko Daryna I.
2017-04-01
Full Text Available The article is aimed at systematizing and improving the system of statistical indicators for the market of laboratory health services (LHS and developing methods for their calculation. In the course of formation of the system of statistical indicators for the market of LHS, allocation of nine blocks has been proposed: market size; proportionality of market; market demand; market proposal; level and dynamics of prices; variation of the LHS; dynamics, development trends, and cycles of the market; market structure; level of competition and monopolization. The proposed system of statistical indicators together with methods for their calculation should ensure studying the trends and regularities in formation of the market for laboratory health services in Ukraine.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haruki Nakamura
2012-09-01
Full Text Available We have developed a method for estimating protein-ligand binding free energy (DG based on the direct protein-ligand interaction obtained by a molecular dynamics simulation. Using this method, we estimated the DG value statistically by the average values of the van der Waals and electrostatic interactions between each amino acid of the target protein and the ligand molecule. In addition, we introduced fluctuations in the accessible surface area (ASA and dihedral angles of the protein-ligand complex system as the entropy terms of the DG estimation. The present method included the fluctuation term of structural change of the protein and the effective dielectric constant. We applied this method to 34 protein-ligand complex structures. As a result, the correlation coefficient between the experimental and calculated DG values was 0.81, and the average error of DG was 1.2 kcal/mol with the use of the fixed parameters. These results were obtained from a 2 nsec molecular dynamics simulation.
Kosevich, Yuriy A.; Savin, Alexander V.; Cantarero, Andrés
2013-01-01
We present molecular dynamics simulation of phonon thermal conductivity of semiconductor nanoribbons with an account for phonon quantum statistics. In our semiquantum molecular dynamics simulation, dynamics of the system is described with the use of classical Newtonian equations of motion where the effect of phonon quantum statistics is introduced through random Langevin-like forces with a specific power spectral density (color noise). The color noise describes interaction of the molecular system with the thermostat. The thermal transport of silicon and germanium nanoribbons with atomically smooth (perfect) and rough (porous) edges are studied. We show that the existence of rough (porous) edges and the quantum statistics of phonon change drastically the low-temperature thermal conductivity of the nanoribbon in comparison with that of the perfect nanoribbon with atomically smooth edges and classical phonon dynamics and statistics. The rough-edge phonon scattering and weak anharmonicity of the considered lattice produce a weakly pronounced maximum of thermal conductivity of the nanoribbon at low temperature.
Goodenberger, Martin H; Wagner-Bartak, Nicolaus A; Gupta, Shiva; Liu, Xinming; Yap, Ramon Q; Sun, Jia; Tamm, Eric P; Jensen, Corey T
The purpose of this study was to compare abdominopelvic computed tomography images reconstructed with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction-V (ASIR-V) with model-based iterative reconstruction (Veo 3.0), ASIR, and filtered back projection (FBP). Abdominopelvic computed tomography scans for 36 patients (26 males and 10 females) were reconstructed using FBP, ASIR (80%), Veo 3.0, and ASIR-V (30%, 60%, 90%). Mean ± SD patient age was 32 ± 10 years with mean ± SD body mass index of 26.9 ± 4.4 kg/m. Images were reviewed by 2 independent readers in a blinded, randomized fashion. Hounsfield unit, noise, and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) values were calculated for each reconstruction algorithm for further comparison. Phantom evaluation of low-contrast detectability (LCD) and high-contrast resolution was performed. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction-V 30%, ASIR-V 60%, and ASIR 80% were generally superior qualitatively compared with ASIR-V 90%, Veo 3.0, and FBP (P ASIR-V 60% with respective CNR values of 5.54 ± 2.39, 8.78 ± 3.15, and 3.49 ± 1.77 (P ASIR 80% had the best and worst spatial resolution, respectively. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction-V 30% and ASIR-V 60% provided the best combination of qualitative and quantitative performance. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction 80% was equivalent qualitatively, but demonstrated inferior spatial resolution and LCD.
Supervision and group dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Søren; Jensen, Lars Peter
2004-01-01
An important aspect of the problem based and project organized study at Aalborg University is the supervision of the project groups. At the basic education (first year) it is stated in the curriculum that part of the supervisors' job is to deal with group dynamics. This is due to the experience...... that many students are having difficulties with practical issues such as collaboration, communication, and project management. Most supervisors either ignore this demand, because they do not find it important or they find it frustrating, because they do not know, how to supervise group dynamics...... as well as at Aalborg University. The first visible result has been participating supervisors telling us that the course has inspired them to try supervising group dynamics in the future. This paper will explore some aspects of supervising group dynamics as well as, how to develop the Aalborg model...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Newmark, R.L.
1992-05-01
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with University of California at Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, is conducting the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project (DUSP), an integrated project demonstrating the use of active thermal techniques to remove subsurface organic contamination. Complementary techniques address a number of environmental restoration problems: (1) steam flood strips organic contaminants from permeable zones, (2) electrical heating drives contaminants from less permeable zones into the more permeable zones from which they can be extracted, and (3) geophysical monitoring tracks and images the progress of the thermal fronts, providing feedback and control of the active processes. The first DUSP phase involved combined steam injection and vapor extraction in a ''clean'' site in the Livermore Valley consisting of unconsolidated alluvial interbeds of clays, sands and gravels. Steam passed rapidly through a high-permeability gravel unit, where in situ temperatures reached 117 degree C. An integrated program of geophysical monitoring was carried out at the Clean Site. We performed electrical resistance tomography (ERT), seismic tomography (crossborehole), induction tomography, passive seismic monitoring, a variety of different temperature measurement techniques and conventional geophysical well logging
Statistical methods in physical mapping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nelson, D.O.
1995-05-01
One of the great success stories of modern molecular genetics has been the ability of biologists to isolate and characterize the genes responsible for serious inherited diseases like fragile X syndrome, cystic fibrosis and myotonic muscular dystrophy. This dissertation concentrates on constructing high-resolution physical maps. It demonstrates how probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis can aid molecular geneticists in the tasks of planning, execution, and evaluation of physical maps of chromosomes and large chromosomal regions. The dissertation is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the field of physical mapping, describing the role of physical mapping in gene isolation and ill past efforts at mapping chromosomal regions. The next two chapters review and extend known results on predicting progress in large mapping projects. Such predictions help project planners decide between various approaches and tactics for mapping large regions of the human genome. Chapter 2 shows how probability models have been used in the past to predict progress in mapping projects. Chapter 3 presents new results, based on stationary point process theory, for progress measures for mapping projects based on directed mapping strategies. Chapter 4 describes in detail the construction of all initial high-resolution physical map for human chromosome 19. This chapter introduces the probability and statistical models involved in map construction in the context of a large, ongoing physical mapping project. Chapter 5 concentrates on one such model, the trinomial model. This chapter contains new results on the large-sample behavior of this model, including distributional results, asymptotic moments, and detection error rates. In addition, it contains an optimality result concerning experimental procedures based on the trinomial model. The last chapter explores unsolved problems and describes future work
Statistical methods in physical mapping
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nelson, David O. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
1995-05-01
One of the great success stories of modern molecular genetics has been the ability of biologists to isolate and characterize the genes responsible for serious inherited diseases like fragile X syndrome, cystic fibrosis and myotonic muscular dystrophy. This dissertation concentrates on constructing high-resolution physical maps. It demonstrates how probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis can aid molecular geneticists in the tasks of planning, execution, and evaluation of physical maps of chromosomes and large chromosomal regions. The dissertation is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the field of physical mapping, describing the role of physical mapping in gene isolation and ill past efforts at mapping chromosomal regions. The next two chapters review and extend known results on predicting progress in large mapping projects. Such predictions help project planners decide between various approaches and tactics for mapping large regions of the human genome. Chapter 2 shows how probability models have been used in the past to predict progress in mapping projects. Chapter 3 presents new results, based on stationary point process theory, for progress measures for mapping projects based on directed mapping strategies. Chapter 4 describes in detail the construction of all initial high-resolution physical map for human chromosome 19. This chapter introduces the probability and statistical models involved in map construction in the context of a large, ongoing physical mapping project. Chapter 5 concentrates on one such model, the trinomial model. This chapter contains new results on the large-sample behavior of this model, including distributional results, asymptotic moments, and detection error rates. In addition, it contains an optimality result concerning experimental procedures based on the trinomial model. The last chapter explores unsolved problems and describes future work.
A Project-Based Quantification of BIM Benefits
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jian Li
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In the construction industry, research is being carried out to look for feasible methods and technologies to cut down project costs and waste. Building Information Modelling (BIM is certainly currently a promising technology/method that can achieve this. The output of the construction industry has a considerable scale; however, the concentration of the industry and the level of informatization are still not high. There is still a large gap in terms of productivity between the construction industry and other industries. Due to the lack of first-hand data regarding how much of an effect can be genuinely had by BIM in real cases, it is unrealistic for construction stakeholders to take the risk of widely adopting BIM. This paper focuses on the methodological quantification (through a case study approach of BIM's benefits in building construction resource management and real-time costs control, in contrast to traditional non-BIM technologies. Through the use of BIM technology for the dynamic querying and statistical analysis of construction schedules, engineering, resources and costs, the three implementations considered demonstrate how BIM can facilitate the comprehensive grasp of a project's implementation and progress, identify and solve the contradictions and conflicts between construction resources and costs controls, reduce project over-spends and protect the supply of resources.
Encryption of covert information into multiple statistical distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Venkatesan, R.C.
2007-01-01
A novel strategy to encrypt covert information (code) via unitary projections into the null spaces of ill-conditioned eigenstructures of multiple host statistical distributions, inferred from incomplete constraints, is presented. The host pdf's are inferred using the maximum entropy principle. The projection of the covert information is dependent upon the pdf's of the host statistical distributions. The security of the encryption/decryption strategy is based on the extreme instability of the encoding process. A self-consistent procedure to derive keys for both symmetric and asymmetric cryptography is presented. The advantages of using a multiple pdf model to achieve encryption of covert information are briefly highlighted. Numerical simulations exemplify the efficacy of the model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abell, D; Adelmann, A; Amundson, J; Dragt, A; Mottershead, C; Neri, F; Pogorelov, I; Qiang, J; Ryne, R; Shalf, J; Siegerist, C; Spentzouris, P; Stern, E; Venturini, M; Walstrom, P
2006-01-01
We describe some of the accomplishments of the Beam Dynamics portion of the SciDAC Accelerator Science and Technology project. During the course of the project, our beam dynamics software has evolved from the era of different codes for each physical effect to the era of hybrid codes combining start-of-the-art implementations for multiple physical effects to the beginning of the era of true multi-physics frameworks. We describe some of the infrastructure that has been developed over the course of the project and advanced features of the most recent developments, the interplay betwen beam studies and simulations and applications to current machines at Fermilab. Finally we discuss current and future plans for simulations of the International Linear Collider
Selected papers on analysis, probability, and statistics
Nomizu, Katsumi
1994-01-01
This book presents papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sugaku. The papers fall into the general area of mathematical analysis as it pertains to probability and statistics, dynamical systems, differential equations and analytic function theory. Among the topics discussed are: stochastic differential equations, spectra of the Laplacian and Schrödinger operators, nonlinear partial differential equations which generate dissipative dynamical systems, fractal analysis on self-similar sets and the global structure of analytic functions.
Case-based reasoning combined with statistics for diagnostics and prognosis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olsson, T; Funk, P
2012-01-01
Many approaches used for diagnostics today are based on a precise model. This excludes diagnostics of many complex types of machinery that cannot be modelled and simulated easily or without great effort. Our aim is to show that by including human experience it is possible to diagnose complex machinery when there is no or limited models or simulations available. This also enables diagnostics in a dynamic application where conditions change and new cases are often added. In fact every new solved case increases the diagnostic power of the system. We present a number of successful projects where we have used feature extraction together with case-based reasoning to diagnose faults in industrial robots, welding, cutting machinery and we also present our latest project for diagnosing transmissions by combining Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) with statistics. We view the fault diagnosis process as three consecutive steps. In the first step, sensor fault signals from machines and/or input from human operators are collected. Then, the second step consists of extracting relevant fault features. In the final diagnosis/prognosis step, status and faults are identified and classified. We view prognosis as a special case of diagnosis where the prognosis module predicts a stream of future features.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming Li
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Prefabricated construction, a new direction for the future development of the Chinese construction industry, can maximize the requirements of “green”. As a new form of green building, prefabricated construction is of particular interest. On account of the immature development of the green building market in China, the investment risk for prefabricated construction is higher than for traditional architecture. Hence, it is especially important to improve its investment risk identification and management. This study adopts system dynamics and builds a risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart, to comprehensively identify investment risks that projects in China may face and to process quantitative estimation of investment risk factors. Key factors influencing project investment risks are found, and corresponding measures are pointedly proposed. This paper may provide guidance and a reference for promoting the sound development of prefabricated construction in China.
Nonlinear dynamics aspects of particle accelerators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jowett, J.M.; Turner, S.; Month, M.
1986-01-01
These proceedings contain the lectures presented at the named winter school. They deal with the application of dynamical systems to accelerator theory. Especially considered are the statistical description of charged-beam plasmas, integrable and nonintegrable Hamiltonian systems, single particle dynamics and nonlinear resonances in circular accelerators, nonlinear dynamics aspects of modern storage rings, nonlinear beam-beam resonances, synchro-betatron resonances, observations of the beam-beam interactions, the dynamics of the beam-beam interactions, beam-beam simulations, the perturbation method in nonlinear dynamics, theories of statistical equilibrium in electron-positron storage rings, nonlinear dissipative phenomena in electron storage rings, the dynamical aperture, the transition to chaos for area-preserving maps, special processors for particle tracking, algorithms for tracking of charged particles in circular accelerators, the breakdown of stability, and a personal perspective of nonlinear dynamics. (HSI)
Climate change estimates of South American riverflow through statistical downscaling
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Landman, W
2014-03-01
Full Text Available projections are assimilated into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of downscaled riverflows in the La Plata Basin and in southern-central Chile. The statistical model uses atmospheric circulation fields (geopotential heights at the 200...
Statistics in three biomedical journals
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Pilčík, Tomáš
2003-01-01
Roč. 52, č. 1 (2003), s. 39-43 ISSN 0862-8408 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA310/03/1381 Grant - others:Howard Hughes Medical Institute(US) HHMI55000323 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5052915 Keywords : statistics * usage * biomedical journals Subject RIV: EC - Immunology Impact factor: 0.939, year: 2003
Emerging of Stochastic Dynamical Equalities and Steady State Thermodynamics from Darwinian Dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ao, P.
2008-01-01
The evolutionary dynamics first conceived by Darwin and Wallace, referring to as Darwinian dynamics in the present paper, has been found to be universally valid in biology. The statistical mechanics and thermodynamics, while enormous successful in physics, have been in an awkward situation of wanting a consistent dynamical understanding. Here we present from a formal point of view an exploration of the connection between thermodynamics and Darwinian dynamics and a few related topics. We first show that the stochasticity in Darwinian dynamics implies the existence temperature, hence the canonical distribution of Boltzmann-Gibbs type. In term of relative entropy the Second Law of thermodynamics is dynamically demonstrated without detailed balance condition, and is valid regardless of size of the system. In particular, the dynamical component responsible for breaking detailed balance condition does not contribute to the change of the relative entropy. Two types of stochastic dynamical equalities of current interest are explicitly discussed in the present approach: One is based on Feynman-Kac formula and another is a generalization of Einstein relation. Both are directly accessible to experimental tests. Our demonstration indicates that Darwinian dynamics represents logically a simple and straightforward starting point for statistical mechanics and thermodynamics and is complementary to and consistent with conservative dynamics that dominates the physical sciences. Present exploration suggests the existence of a unified stochastic dynamical framework both near and far from equilibrium
Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects
Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;
2015-01-01
Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex
A modern course in statistical physics
Reichl, Linda E
2016-01-01
"A Modern Course in Statistical Physics" is a textbook that illustrates the foundations of equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical physics, and the universal nature of thermodynamic processes, from the point of view of contemporary research problems. The book treats such diverse topics as the microscopic theory of critical phenomena, superfluid dynamics, quantum conductance, light scattering, transport processes, and dissipative structures, all in the framework of the foundations of statistical physics and thermodynamics. It shows the quantum origins of problems in classical statistical physics. One focus of the book is fluctuations that occur due to the discrete nature of matter, a topic of growing importance for nanometer scale physics and biophysics. Another focus concerns classical and quantum phase transitions, in both monatomic and mixed particle systems. This fourth edition extends the range of topics considered to include, for example, entropic forces, electrochemical processes in biological syste...
Photogrammetric computer vision statistics, geometry, orientation and reconstruction
Förstner, Wolfgang
2016-01-01
This textbook offers a statistical view on the geometry of multiple view analysis, required for camera calibration and orientation and for geometric scene reconstruction based on geometric image features. The authors have backgrounds in geodesy and also long experience with development and research in computer vision, and this is the first book to present a joint approach from the converging fields of photogrammetry and computer vision. Part I of the book provides an introduction to estimation theory, covering aspects such as Bayesian estimation, variance components, and sequential estimation, with a focus on the statistically sound diagnostics of estimation results essential in vision metrology. Part II provides tools for 2D and 3D geometric reasoning using projective geometry. This includes oriented projective geometry and tools for statistically optimal estimation and test of geometric entities and transformations and their relations, tools that are useful also in the context of uncertain reasoning in po...
Is quantum theory a form of statistical mechanics?
Adler, S. L.
2007-05-01
We give a review of the basic themes of my recent book: Adler S L 2004 Quantum Theory as an Emergent Phenomenon (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press). We first give motivations for considering the possibility that quantum mechanics is not exact, but is instead an accurate asymptotic approximation to a deeper level theory. For this deeper level, we propose a non-commutative generalization of classical mechanics, that we call "trace dynamics", and we give a brief survey of how it works, considering for simplicity only the bosonic case. We then discuss the statistical mechanics of trace dynamics and give our argument that with suitable approximations, the Ward identities for trace dynamics imply that ensemble averages in the canonical ensemble correspond to Wightman functions in quantum field theory. Thus, quantum theory emerges as the statistical thermodynamics of trace dynamics. Finally, we argue that Brownian motion corrections to this thermodynamics lead to stochastic corrections to the Schrödinger equation, of the type that have been much studied in the "continuous spontaneous localization" model of objective state vector reduction. In appendices to the talk, we give details of the existence of a conserved operator in trace dynamics that encodes the structure of the canonical algebra, of the derivation of the Ward identities, and of the proof that the stochastically-modified Schrödinger equation leads to state vector reduction with Born rule probabilities.
Statistical properties of transport in plasma turbulence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Naulin, V.; Garcia, O.E.; Nielsen, A.H.
2004-01-01
The statistical properties of the particle flux in different types of plasma turbulence models are numerically investigated using probability distribution functions (PDFs). The physics included in the models range from two-dimensional drift wave turbulence to three-dimensional MHD dynamics...
Lee, Seungjoon; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Karniadakis, George Em
2017-09-01
Exascale-level simulations require fault-resilient algorithms that are robust against repeated and expected software and/or hardware failures during computations, which may render the simulation results unsatisfactory. If each processor can share some global information about the simulation from a coarse, limited accuracy but relatively costless auxiliary simulator we can effectively fill-in the missing spatial data at the required times by a statistical learning technique - multi-level Gaussian process regression, on the fly; this has been demonstrated in previous work [1]. Based on the previous work, we also employ another (nonlinear) statistical learning technique, Diffusion Maps, that detects computational redundancy in time and hence accelerate the simulation by projective time integration, giving the overall computation a "patch dynamics" flavor. Furthermore, we are now able to perform information fusion with multi-fidelity and heterogeneous data (including stochastic data). Finally, we set the foundations of a new framework in CFD, called patch simulation, that combines information fusion techniques from, in principle, multiple fidelity and resolution simulations (and even experiments) with a new adaptive timestep refinement technique. We present two benchmark problems (the heat equation and the Navier-Stokes equations) to demonstrate the new capability that statistical learning tools can bring to traditional scientific computing algorithms. For each problem, we rely on heterogeneous and multi-fidelity data, either from a coarse simulation of the same equation or from a stochastic, particle-based, more "microscopic" simulation. We consider, as such "auxiliary" models, a Monte Carlo random walk for the heat equation and a dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) model for the Navier-Stokes equations. More broadly, in this paper we demonstrate the symbiotic and synergistic combination of statistical learning, domain decomposition, and scientific computing in
OBSERVING LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS OF INFINITE-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS.
Ott, William; Rivas, Mauricio A; West, James
2015-12-01
Can Lyapunov exponents of infinite-dimensional dynamical systems be observed by projecting the dynamics into ℝ N using a 'typical' nonlinear projection map? We answer this question affirmatively by developing embedding theorems for compact invariant sets associated with C 1 maps on Hilbert spaces. Examples of such discrete-time dynamical systems include time- T maps and Poincaré return maps generated by the solution semigroups of evolution partial differential equations. We make every effort to place hypotheses on the projected dynamics rather than on the underlying infinite-dimensional dynamical system. In so doing, we adopt an empirical approach and formulate checkable conditions under which a Lyapunov exponent computed from experimental data will be a Lyapunov exponent of the infinite-dimensional dynamical system under study (provided the nonlinear projection map producing the data is typical in the sense of prevalence).
Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Bremer, P. -T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
2013-10-31
Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, the approach of the entire team involving all three institutions is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modelling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modelling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. The overall technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modelling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods. Roughly speaking, the division of labor between our 3 groups (Sandia Labs in Livermore, Texas A&M in College Station, and U Utah in Salt Lake City) is as follows: the Sandia group focuses on statistical methods and their formulation in algebraic terms, and finds the application problems (and data sets) most relevant to this project, the Texas A&M Group develops new algebraic geometry algorithms, in particular with fewnomial theory, and the Utah group develops new algorithms in computational topology via Discrete Morse Theory. However, we hasten to point out that our three groups stay in tight contact via videconference every 2 weeks, so there is much synergy of ideas between the groups. The following of this document is focused on the contributions that had grater direct involvement from the team at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.
Statistical-mechanical formulation of Lyapunov exponents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanase-Nicola, Sorin; Kurchan, Jorge
2003-01-01
We show how the Lyapunov exponents of a dynamic system can, in general, be expressed in terms of the free energy of a (non-Hermitian) quantum many-body problem. This puts their study as a problem of statistical mechanics, whose intuitive concepts and techniques of approximation can hence be borrowed
Fuzzy statistical decision-making theory and applications
Kabak, Özgür
2016-01-01
This book offers a comprehensive reference guide to fuzzy statistics and fuzzy decision-making techniques. It provides readers with all the necessary tools for making statistical inference in the case of incomplete information or insufficient data, where classical statistics cannot be applied. The respective chapters, written by prominent researchers, explain a wealth of both basic and advanced concepts including: fuzzy probability distributions, fuzzy frequency distributions, fuzzy Bayesian inference, fuzzy mean, mode and median, fuzzy dispersion, fuzzy p-value, and many others. To foster a better understanding, all the chapters include relevant numerical examples or case studies. Taken together, they form an excellent reference guide for researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students pursuing research on fuzzy statistics. Moreover, by extending all the main aspects of classical statistical decision-making to its fuzzy counterpart, the book presents a dynamic snapshot of the field that is expected to stimu...
Tube problems: worldwide statistics reviewed
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1994-01-01
EPRI's Steam Generator Strategic Management Project issues an annual report on the progress being made in tackling steam generator problems worldwide, containing a wealth of detailed statistics on the status of operating units and degradation mechanisms encountered. A few highlights are presented from the latest report, issued in October 1993, which covers the period to 31 December 1992. (Author)
Watt-Lite; Energy Statistics Made Tangible
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jönsson, Li; Broms, Loove; Katzeff, Cecilia
2011-01-01
of consumers its consequences are poorly understood. In order to better understand how we can use design to increase awareness of electricity consumption in everyday life, we will discuss the design of Watt-Lite, a set of three oversized torches projecting real time energy statistics of a factory...... in the physical environments of its employees. The design of Watt-Lite is meant to explore ways of representing, understanding and interacting with electricity in industrial workspaces. We discuss three design inquiries and their implications for the design of Watt-Lite: the use of tangible statistics...
Inferring Characteristics of Sensorimotor Behavior by Quantifying Dynamics of Animal Locomotion
Leung, KaWai
Locomotion is one of the most well-studied topics in animal behavioral studies. Many fundamental and clinical research make use of the locomotion of an animal model to explore various aspects in sensorimotor behavior. In the past, most of these studies focused on population average of a specific trait due to limitation of data collection and processing power. With recent advance in computer vision and statistical modeling techniques, it is now possible to track and analyze large amounts of behavioral data. In this thesis, I present two projects that aim to infer the characteristics of sensorimotor behavior by quantifying the dynamics of locomotion of nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, shedding light on statistical dependence between sensing and behavior. In the first project, I investigate the possibility of inferring noxious sensory information from the behavior of Caenorhabditis elegans. I develop a statistical model to infer the heat stimulus level perceived by individual animals from their stereotyped escape responses after stimulation by an IR laser. The model allows quantification of analgesic-like effects of chemical agents or genetic mutations in the worm. At the same time, the method is able to differentiate perturbations of locomotion behavior that are beyond affecting the sensory system. With this model I propose experimental designs that allows statistically significant identification of analgesic-like effects. In the second project, I investigate the relationship of energy budget and stability of locomotion in determining the walking speed distribution of Drosophila melanogaster during aging. The locomotion stability at different age groups is estimated from video recordings using Floquet theory. I calculate the power consumption of different locomotion speed using a biomechanics model. In conclusion, the power consumption, not stability, predicts the locomotion speed distribution at different ages.
Highly Robust Statistical Methods in Medical Image Analysis
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kalina, Jan
2012-01-01
Roč. 32, č. 2 (2012), s. 3-16 ISSN 0208-5216 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : robust statistics * classification * faces * robust image analysis * forensic science Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2012 http://www.ibib.waw.pl/bbe/bbefulltext/BBE_32_2_003_FT.pdf
Statistical bootstrap approach to hadronic matter and multiparticle reactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ilgenfritz, E.M.; Kripfganz, J.; Moehring, H.J.
1977-01-01
The authors present the main ideas behind the statistical bootstrap model and recent developments within this model related to the description of fireball cascade decay. Mathematical methods developed in this model might be useful in other phenomenological schemes of strong interaction physics; they are described in detail. The present status of applications of the model to various hadronic reactions is discussed. When discussing the relations of the statistical bootstrap model to other models of hadron physics the authors point out possibly fruitful analogies and dynamical mechanisms which are modelled by the bootstrap dynamics under definite conditions. This offers interpretations for the critical temperature typical for the model and indicates futher fields of application. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Niu Yu-Jun; Wang Xing-Yuan; Nian Fu-Zhong; Wang Ming-Jun
2010-01-01
Based on the stability theory of the fractional order system, the dynamic behaviours of a new fractional order system are investigated theoretically. The lowest order we found to have chaos in the new three-dimensional system is 2.46, and the period routes to chaos in the new fractional order system are also found. The effectiveness of our analysis results is further verified by numerical simulations and positive largest Lyapunov exponent. Furthermore, a nonlinear feedback controller is designed to achieve the generalized projective synchronization of the fractional order chaotic system, and its validity is proved by Laplace transformation theory. (general)
Studies of Heat Dynamics in an Arctic Low-energy House
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Rode, Carsten; Madsen, Henrik
2012-01-01
. Statistical methods are being developed in a PhD project to derive the properties to be used in a dynamic thermal model of the whole building. Characteristic of the building is its exposure to the extreme Arctic climate, which is both very cold and where the sun in some periods may shine constantly...... energy-efficient windows, and heat recovery. The house is divided into two symmetric apartments, of which one is inhabited by a family, and the other is used for experiments and demonstration. The situation provides unique options for measuring and analysis with large signal to noise ratios facilitating...
Higher order statistical moment application for solar PV potential analysis
Basri, Mohd Juhari Mat; Abdullah, Samizee; Azrulhisham, Engku Ahmad; Harun, Khairulezuan
2016-10-01
Solar photovoltaic energy could be as alternative energy to fossil fuel, which is depleting and posing a global warming problem. However, this renewable energy is so variable and intermittent to be relied on. Therefore the knowledge of energy potential is very important for any site to build this solar photovoltaic power generation system. Here, the application of higher order statistical moment model is being analyzed using data collected from 5MW grid-connected photovoltaic system. Due to the dynamic changes of skewness and kurtosis of AC power and solar irradiance distributions of the solar farm, Pearson system where the probability distribution is calculated by matching their theoretical moments with that of the empirical moments of a distribution could be suitable for this purpose. On the advantage of the Pearson system in MATLAB, a software programming has been developed to help in data processing for distribution fitting and potential analysis for future projection of amount of AC power and solar irradiance availability.
Statistical Validation of Calibrated Wind Data Collected From NOAA's Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
Graham, K.; Sears, I. T.; Holmes, M.; Henning, R. G.; Damiano, A. B.; Parrish, J. R.; Flaherty, P. T.
2015-12-01
Obtaining accurate in situ meteorological measurements from the NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter Aircraft currently requires annual wind calibration flights. This project attempts to demonstrate whether an alternate method to wind calibration flights can be implemented using data collected from many previous hurricane, winter storm, and surveying flights. Wind derivations require using airplane attack and slip angles, airplane pitch, pressure differentials, dynamic pressures, ground speeds, true air speeds, and several other variables measured by instruments on the aircraft. Through the use of linear regression models, future wind measurements may be fit to past statistical models. This method of wind calibration could replace the need for annual wind calibration flights, decreasing NOAA expenses and providing more accurate data. This would help to ensure all data users have reliable data and ultimately contribute to NOAA's goal of building of a Weather Ready Nation.
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Dynamics and statistics of heavy particles in turbulent flows
Cencini, M.; Bec, J.; Biferale, L.; Boffetta, G.; Celani, A.; Lanotte, A.; Musacchio, S.; Toschi, F.
2006-01-01
We present the results of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent flows seeded with millions of passive inertial particles. The maximum Reynolds number is Re¿~ 200. We consider particles much heavier than the carrier flow in the limit when the Stokes drag force dominates their dynamical
Analysis of Uncertainty in Dynamic Processes Development of Banks Functioning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aleksei V. Korovyakovskii
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The paper offers the approach to measure of uncertainty estimation in dynamic processes of banks functioning, using statistic data of different banking operations indicators. To calculate measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of banks functioning the phase images of relevant sets of statistic data are considered. Besides, it is shown that the form of phase image of the studied sets of statistic data can act as a basis of measure of uncertainty estimation in dynamic processes of banks functioning. The set of analytical characteristics are offered to formalize the form of phase image definition of the studied sets of statistic data. It is shown that the offered analytical characteristics consider inequality of changes in values of the studied sets of statistic data, which is one of the ways of uncertainty display in dynamic processes development. The invariant estimates of measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of banks functioning, considering significant changes in absolute values of the same indicators for different banks were obtained. The examples of calculation of measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of concrete banks functioning were cited.
Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crooks, Gavin E; Sivak, David A
2011-01-01
Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen–Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence
Fulfilling the needs for statistical expertise at Aalborg Hospital
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dethlefsen, Claus
In 2005, the first statistician was employed at Aalborg Hospital due to expanding research activities as part of Aarhus University Hospital. Since then, there has been an increased demand for statistical expertise at all levels. In the talk, I will give an overview of the current staff...... of statisticians and the organisation. I will give examples from our statistical consultancy and illustrate some of the challenges that have led to research projects with heavy statistical involvement....
Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.
Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng
2018-01-01
In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.
Expansion of the On-line Archive "Statistically Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections"
Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Maurer, E. P.; Das, T.; Duffy, P.; White, K.
2009-12-01
Presentation highlights status and plans for a public-access archive of downscaled CMIP3 climate projections. Incorporating climate projection information into long-term evaluations of water and energy resources requires analysts to have access to projections at "basin-relevant" resolution. Such projections would ideally be bias-corrected to account for climate model tendencies to systematically simulate historical conditions different than observed. In 2007, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Santa Clara University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborated to develop an archive of 112 bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated (BCSD) CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections. These projections were generated using 16 CMIP3 models to simulate three emissions pathways (A2, A1b, and B1) from one or more initializations (runs). Projections are specified on a monthly time step from 1950-2099 and at 0.125 degree spatial resolution within the North American Land Data Assimilation System domain (i.e. contiguous U.S., southern Canada and northern Mexico). Archive data are freely accessible at LLNL Green Data Oasis (url). Since being launched, the archive has served over 3500 data requests by nearly 500 users in support of a range of planning, research and educational activities. Archive developers continue to look for ways to improve the archive and respond to user needs. One request has been to serve the intermediate datasets generated during the BCSD procedure, helping users to interpret the relative influences of the bias-correction and spatial disaggregation on the transformed CMIP3 output. This request has been addressed with intermediate datasets now posted at the archive web-site. Another request relates closely to studying hydrologic and ecological impacts under climate change, where users are asking for projected diurnal temperature information (e.g., projected daily minimum and maximum temperature) and daily time step resolution. In
A Statistical Toolkit for Data Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Donadio, S.; Guatelli, S.; Mascialino, B.; Pfeiffer, A.; Pia, M.G.; Ribon, A.; Viarengo, P.
2006-01-01
The present project aims to develop an open-source and object-oriented software Toolkit for statistical data analysis. Its statistical testing component contains a variety of Goodness-of-Fit tests, from Chi-squared to Kolmogorov-Smirnov, to less known, but generally much more powerful tests such as Anderson-Darling, Goodman, Fisz-Cramer-von Mises, Kuiper, Tiku. Thanks to the component-based design and the usage of the standard abstract interfaces for data analysis, this tool can be used by other data analysis systems or integrated in experimental software frameworks. This Toolkit has been released and is downloadable from the web. In this paper we describe the statistical details of the algorithms, the computational features of the Toolkit and describe the code validation
Statistical Data Analyses of Trace Chemical, Biochemical, and Physical Analytical Signatures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Udey, Ruth Norma [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)
2013-01-01
Analytical and bioanalytical chemistry measurement results are most meaningful when interpreted using rigorous statistical treatments of the data. The same data set may provide many dimensions of information depending on the questions asked through the applied statistical methods. Three principal projects illustrated the wealth of information gained through the application of statistical data analyses to diverse problems.
Jacobitz, Frank G; Schneider, Kai; Bos, Wouter J T; Farge, Marie
2016-01-01
The acceleration statistics of sheared and rotating homogeneous turbulence are studied using direct numerical simulation results. The statistical properties of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are considered together with the influence of the rotation to shear ratio, as well as the scale dependence of their statistics. The probability density functions (pdfs) of both Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations show a strong and similar dependence on the rotation to shear ratio. The variance and flatness of both accelerations are analyzed and the extreme values of the Eulerian acceleration are observed to be above those of the Lagrangian acceleration. For strong rotation it is observed that flatness yields values close to three, corresponding to Gaussian-like behavior, and for moderate and vanishing rotation the flatness increases. Furthermore, the Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are shown to be strongly correlated for strong rotation due to a reduced nonlinear term in this case. A wavelet-based scale-dependent analysis shows that the flatness of both Eulerian and Lagrangian accelerations increases as scale decreases, which provides evidence for intermittent behavior. For strong rotation the Eulerian acceleration is even more intermittent than the Lagrangian acceleration, while the opposite result is obtained for moderate rotation. Moreover, the dynamics of a passive scalar with gradient production in the direction of the mean velocity gradient is analyzed and the influence of the rotation to shear ratio is studied. Concerning the concentration of a passive scalar spread by the flow, the pdf of its Eulerian time rate of change presents higher extreme values than those of its Lagrangian time rate of change. This suggests that the Eulerian time rate of change of scalar concentration is mainly due to advection, while its Lagrangian counterpart is only due to gradient production and viscous dissipation.
Cellular automata and statistical mechanical models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rujan, P.
1987-01-01
The authors elaborate on the analogy between the transfer matrix of usual lattice models and the master equation describing the time development of cellular automata. Transient and stationary properties of probabilistic automata are linked to surface and bulk properties, respectively, of restricted statistical mechanical systems. It is demonstrated that methods of statistical physics can be successfully used to describe the dynamic and the stationary behavior of such automata. Some exact results are derived, including duality transformations, exact mappings, disorder, and linear solutions. Many examples are worked out in detail to demonstrate how to use statistical physics in order to construct cellular automata with desired properties. This approach is considered to be a first step toward the design of fully parallel, probabilistic systems whose computational abilities rely on the cooperative behavior of their components
Araya, Takao; Kubo, Takuya; von Wirén, Nicolaus; Takahashi, Hideki
2016-03-01
Plant root development is strongly affected by nutrient availability. Despite the importance of structure and function of roots in nutrient acquisition, statistical modeling approaches to evaluate dynamic and temporal modulations of root system architecture in response to nutrient availability have remained as widely open and exploratory areas in root biology. In this study, we developed a statistical modeling approach to investigate modulations of root system architecture in response to nitrogen availability. Mathematical models were designed for quantitative assessment of root growth and root branching phenotypes and their dynamic relationships based on hierarchical configuration of primary and lateral roots formulating the fishbone-shaped root system architecture in Arabidopsis thaliana. Time-series datasets reporting dynamic changes in root developmental traits on different nitrate or ammonium concentrations were generated for statistical analyses. Regression analyses unraveled key parameters associated with: (i) inhibition of primary root growth under nitrogen limitation or on ammonium; (ii) rapid progression of lateral root emergence in response to ammonium; and (iii) inhibition of lateral root elongation in the presence of excess nitrate or ammonium. This study provides a statistical framework for interpreting dynamic modulation of root system architecture, supported by meta-analysis of datasets displaying morphological responses of roots to diverse nitrogen supplies. © 2015 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Girum Admasu Nadew; Zebene Lakew Tefera
2013-01-01
Multivariate statistical analysis is very important to classify waters of different hydrochemical groups. Statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis, can provide a powerful tool for analyzing water chemistry data. This method is used to test water quality data and determine if samples can be grouped into distinct populations that may be significant in the geologic context, as well as from a statistical point of view. Multivariate statistical analysis method is applied to the geochemical data in combination with δ 18 O and δ 2 H isotopes with the objective to understand the dynamics of groundwater using hierarchical clustering and isotope analyses. The geochemical and isotope data of the central and southern rift valley lakes have been collected and analyzed from different works. Isotope analysis shows that most springs and boreholes are recharged by July and August rainfalls. The different hydrochemical groups that resulted from the multivariate analysis are described and correlated with the geology of the area and whether it has any interaction with a system or not. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)
2007-02-15
Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos
Early years of Computational Statistical Mechanics
Mareschal, Michel
2018-05-01
Evidence that a model of hard spheres exhibits a first-order solid-fluid phase transition was provided in the late fifties by two new numerical techniques known as Monte Carlo and Molecular Dynamics. This result can be considered as the starting point of computational statistical mechanics: at the time, it was a confirmation of a counter-intuitive (and controversial) theoretical prediction by J. Kirkwood. It necessitated an intensive collaboration between the Los Alamos team, with Bill Wood developing the Monte Carlo approach, and the Livermore group, where Berni Alder was inventing Molecular Dynamics. This article tells how it happened.
Characteristics of level-spacing statistics in chaotic graphene billiards.
Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso
2011-03-01
A fundamental result in nonrelativistic quantum nonlinear dynamics is that the spectral statistics of quantum systems that possess no geometric symmetry, but whose classical dynamics are chaotic, are described by those of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) or the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), in the presence or absence of time-reversal symmetry, respectively. For massless spin-half particles such as neutrinos in relativistic quantum mechanics in a chaotic billiard, the seminal work of Berry and Mondragon established the GUE nature of the level-spacing statistics, due to the combination of the chirality of Dirac particles and the confinement, which breaks the time-reversal symmetry. A question is whether the GOE or the GUE statistics can be observed in experimentally accessible, relativistic quantum systems. We demonstrate, using graphene confinements in which the quasiparticle motions are governed by the Dirac equation in the low-energy regime, that the level-spacing statistics are persistently those of GOE random matrices. We present extensive numerical evidence obtained from the tight-binding approach and a physical explanation for the GOE statistics. We also find that the presence of a weak magnetic field switches the statistics to those of GUE. For a strong magnetic field, Landau levels become influential, causing the level-spacing distribution to deviate markedly from the random-matrix predictions. Issues addressed also include the effects of a number of realistic factors on level-spacing statistics such as next nearest-neighbor interactions, different lattice orientations, enhanced hopping energy for atoms on the boundary, and staggered potential due to graphene-substrate interactions.
Using Facebook Data to Turn Introductory Statistics Students into Consultants
Childers, Adam F.
2017-01-01
Facebook provides businesses and organizations with copious data that describe how users are interacting with their page. This data affords an excellent opportunity to turn introductory statistics students into consultants to analyze the Facebook data using descriptive and inferential statistics. This paper details a semester-long project that…
Statistical Property and Model for the Inter-Event Time of Terrorism Attacks
Zhu, Jun-Fang; Han, Xiao-Pu; Wang, Bing-Hong
2010-06-01
The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.
Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao
2017-12-01
The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.
Femtosecond few- to single-electron point-projection microscopy for nanoscale dynamic imaging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. R. Bainbridge
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Femtosecond electron microscopy produces real-space images of matter in a series of ultrafast snapshots. Pulses of electrons self-disperse under space-charge broadening, so without compression, the ideal operation mode is a single electron per pulse. Here, we demonstrate femtosecond single-electron point projection microscopy (fs-ePPM in a laser-pump fs-e-probe configuration. The electrons have an energy of only 150 eV and take tens of picoseconds to propagate to the object under study. Nonetheless, we achieve a temporal resolution with a standard deviation of 114 fs (equivalent to a full-width at half-maximum of 269 ± 40 fs combined with a spatial resolution of 100 nm, applied to a localized region of charge at the apex of a nanoscale metal tip induced by 30 fs 800 nm laser pulses at 50 kHz. These observations demonstrate real-space imaging of reversible processes, such as tracking charge distributions, is feasible whilst maintaining femtosecond resolution. Our findings could find application as a characterization method, which, depending on geometry, could resolve tens of femtoseconds and tens of nanometres. Dynamically imaging electric and magnetic fields and charge distributions on sub-micron length scales opens new avenues of ultrafast dynamics. Furthermore, through the use of active compression, such pulses are an ideal seed for few-femtosecond to attosecond imaging applications which will access sub-optical cycle processes in nanoplasmonics.
A Statistical Framework for the Functional Analysis of Metagenomes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sharon, Itai; Pati, Amrita; Markowitz, Victor; Pinter, Ron Y.
2008-10-01
Metagenomic studies consider the genetic makeup of microbial communities as a whole, rather than their individual member organisms. The functional and metabolic potential of microbial communities can be analyzed by comparing the relative abundance of gene families in their collective genomic sequences (metagenome) under different conditions. Such comparisons require accurate estimation of gene family frequencies. They present a statistical framework for assessing these frequencies based on the Lander-Waterman theory developed originally for Whole Genome Shotgun (WGS) sequencing projects. They also provide a novel method for assessing the reliability of the estimations which can be used for removing seemingly unreliable measurements. They tested their method on a wide range of datasets, including simulated genomes and real WGS data from sequencing projects of whole genomes. Results suggest that their framework corrects inherent biases in accepted methods and provides a good approximation to the true statistics of gene families in WGS projects.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2002-10-01
This document summarizes in a series of tables the energy statistical data for France: consumption since 1973; energy supplies (production, imports, exports, stocks) and uses (refining, power production, internal uses, sectoral consumption) for coal, petroleum, gas, electricity, and renewable energy sources; national production and consumption of primary energy; final consumption per sector and per energy source; general indicators (energy bill, US$ change rate, prices, energy independence, internal gross product); projections. Details (resources, uses, prices, imports, internal consumption) are given separately for petroleum, natural gas, electric power and solid mineral fuels. (J.S.)
A new approach to cost effective projects: High performance project teams
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chambers, N.C.
1994-01-01
In low oil price environment in which environmental conditions are more challenging, reservoir characteristics less favourable and political risk increasing, successful projects are required in such cases. The present paper deals with the visionary process of establishing high performance project teams. According to the author, such project teams embody dynamic recognition of holism. Holism is achieved as an output from the process of establishing the drivers and enablers for success on a project. They are given birth during the unfolding of the operators development plans and contracting strategy. The paper discusses the main drivers of project teams comprising purpose and performance goals, selection, common approach, commitment and accountability, and financial alignment
A new approach to cost effective projects: High performance project teams
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chambers, N.C. [Brown and Root Energy Services (United Kingdom)
1994-12-31
In low oil price environment in which environmental conditions are more challenging, reservoir characteristics less favourable and political risk increasing, successful projects are required in such cases. The present paper deals with the visionary process of establishing high performance project teams. According to the author, such project teams embody dynamic recognition of holism. Holism is achieved as an output from the process of establishing the drivers and enablers for success on a project. They are given birth during the unfolding of the operators development plans and contracting strategy. The paper discusses the main drivers of project teams comprising purpose and performance goals, selection, common approach, commitment and accountability, and financial alignment
Project Compliance with Enterprise Architecture
Foorthuis, R.M.
2012-01-01
This research project set out to identify effective practices and models for working with projects that are required to comply with Enterprise Architecture (EA), and investigate the benefits and drawbacks brought about by compliance. Research methods used are canonical action research, a statistical
Dominik, Michael T.
The success of a project is dependent in part on the skills, knowledge, and behavior of its leader, the project manager. Despite advances in project manager certifications and professional development, the aerospace and defense industry has continued to see highly visible and expensive project failures partially attributable to failures in leadership. Servant leadership is an emerging leadership theory whose practitioners embrace empowerment, authenticity, humility, accountability, forgiveness, courage, standing back, and stewardship, but has not yet been fully examined in the context of the project manager as leader. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between servant leadership behaviors demonstrated by aerospace and defense project managers and the resulting success of their projects. Study participants were drawn from aerospace and defense oriented affinity groups from the LinkedInRTM social media web system. The participants rated their project managers using a 30-item servant leadership scale, and rated the success of their project using a 12-item project success scale. One hundred and fifteen valid responses were analyzed from 231 collected samples from persons who had worked for a project manager on an aerospace and defense project within the past year. The results of the study demonstrated statistically significant levels of positive correlation to project success for all eight servant leadership factors independently evaluated. Using multiple linear regression methods, the servant leadership factors of empowerment and authenticity were determined to be substantial and statistically significant predictors of project success. The study results established the potential application of servant leadership as a valid approach for improving outcomes of projects.
Dynamic Response to Pedestrian Loads with Statistical Frequency Distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krenk, Steen
2012-01-01
on the magnitude of the resulting response. A frequency representation of vertical pedestrian load is developed, and a compact explicit formula is developed for the magnitude of the resulting response, in terms of the damping ratio of the structure, the bandwidth of the pedestrian load, and the mean footfall...... frequency. The accuracy of the formula is verified by a statistical moment analysis using the Lyapunov equations....