WorldWideScience

Sample records for dynamic statistical projection

  1. Fast computation of statistical uncertainty for spatiotemporal distributions estimated directly from dynamic cone beam SPECT projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.

    2001-01-01

    The estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from projection data is potentially useful for clinical dynamic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies, particularly in those clinics that have only single-detector systems and thus are not able to perform rapid tomographic acquisitions. Because the radiopharmaceutical distribution changes while the SPECT gantry rotates, projections at different angles come from different tracer distributions. A dynamic image sequence reconstructed from the inconsistent projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry can contain artifacts that lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying regions of interest on the images. If cone beam collimators are used and the focal point of the collimators always remains in a particular transaxial plane, additional artifacts can arise in other planes reconstructed using insufficient projection samples [1]. If the projection samples truncate the patient's body, this can result in additional image artifacts. To overcome these sources of bias in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we and others have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view [2-8]. In our previous work we developed a computationally efficient method for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions from dynamic SPECT projection data [5], which extended Formiconi's least squares algorithm for reconstructing temporally static distributions [9]. In addition, we studied the biases that result from modeling various orders temporal continuity and using various time samplings [5]. the present work, we address computational issues associated with evaluating the statistical uncertainty of

  2. Evaluation and projection of daily temperature percentiles from statistical and dynamical downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Casanueva

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The study of extreme events has become of great interest in recent years due to their direct impact on society. Extremes are usually evaluated by using extreme indicators, based on order statistics on the tail of the probability distribution function (typically percentiles. In this study, we focus on the tail of the distribution of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. For this purpose, we analyse high (95th and low (5th percentiles in daily maximum and minimum temperatures on the Iberian Peninsula, respectively, derived from different downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical. First, we analyse the performance of reanalysis-driven downscaling methods in present climate conditions. The comparison among the different methods is performed in terms of the bias of seasonal percentiles, considering as observations the public gridded data sets E-OBS and Spain02, and obtaining an estimation of both the mean and spatial percentile errors. Secondly, we analyse the increments of future percentile projections under the SRES A1B scenario and compare them with those corresponding to the mean temperature, showing that their relative importance depends on the method, and stressing the need to consider an ensemble of methodologies.

  3. A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at

  4. Record Statistics and Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sibani, Paolo; Jensen, Henrik J.

    2009-01-01

    with independent random increments. The term record dynamics covers the rather new idea that records may, in special situations, have measurable dynamical consequences. The approach applies to the aging dynamics of glasses and other systems with multiple metastable states. The basic idea is that record sizes...... fluctuations of e. g. the energy are able to push the system past some sort of ‘edge of stability’, inducing irreversible configurational changes, whose statistics then closely follows the statistics of record fluctuations....

  5. Dynamic statistical information theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In recent years we extended Shannon static statistical information theory to dynamic processes and established a Shannon dynamic statistical information theory, whose core is the evolution law of dynamic entropy and dynamic information. We also proposed a corresponding Boltzmman dynamic statistical information theory. Based on the fact that the state variable evolution equation of respective dynamic systems, i.e. Fokker-Planck equation and Liouville diffusion equation can be regarded as their information symbol evolution equation, we derived the nonlinear evolution equations of Shannon dynamic entropy density and dynamic information density and the nonlinear evolution equations of Boltzmann dynamic entropy density and dynamic information density, that describe respectively the evolution law of dynamic entropy and dynamic information. The evolution equations of these two kinds of dynamic entropies and dynamic informations show in unison that the time rate of change of dynamic entropy densities is caused by their drift, diffusion and production in state variable space inside the systems and coordinate space in the transmission processes; and that the time rate of change of dynamic information densities originates from their drift, diffusion and dissipation in state variable space inside the systems and coordinate space in the transmission processes. Entropy and information have been combined with the state and its law of motion of the systems. Furthermore we presented the formulas of two kinds of entropy production rates and information dissipation rates, the expressions of two kinds of drift information flows and diffusion information flows. We proved that two kinds of information dissipation rates (or the decrease rates of the total information) were equal to their corresponding entropy production rates (or the increase rates of the total entropy) in the same dynamic system. We obtained the formulas of two kinds of dynamic mutual informations and dynamic channel

  6. Statistical Techniques for Project Control

    CERN Document Server

    Badiru, Adedeji B

    2012-01-01

    A project can be simple or complex. In each case, proven project management processes must be followed. In all cases of project management implementation, control must be exercised in order to assure that project objectives are achieved. Statistical Techniques for Project Control seamlessly integrates qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques for project control. It fills the void that exists in the application of statistical techniques to project control. The book begins by defining the fundamentals of project management then explores how to temper quantitative analysis with qualitati

  7. SDI: Statistical dynamic interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blann, M.; Mustafa, M.G.; Peilert, G.; Stoecker, H.; Greiner, W.

    1991-01-01

    We focus on the combined statistical and dynamical aspects of heavy ion induced reactions. The overall picture is illustrated by considering the reaction 36 Ar + 238 U at a projectile energy of 35 MeV/nucleon. We illustrate the time dependent bound excitation energy due to the fusion/relaxation dynamics as calculated with the Boltzmann master equation. An estimate of the mass, charge and excitation of an equilibrated nucleus surviving the fast (dynamic) fusion-relaxation process is used as input into an evaporation calculation which includes 20 heavy fragment exit channels. The distribution of excitations between residue and clusters is explicitly calculated, as is the further deexcitation of clusters to bound nuclei. These results are compared with the exclusive cluster multiplicity measurements of Kim et al., and are found to give excellent agreement. We consider also an equilibrated residue system at 25% lower initial excitation, which gives an unsatisfactory exclusive multiplicity distribution. This illustrates that exclusive fragment multiplicity may provide a thermometer for system excitation. This analysis of data involves successive binary decay with no compressional effects nor phase transitions. Several examples of primary versus final (stable) cluster decay probabilities for an A = 100 nucleus at excitations of 100 to 800 MeV are presented. From these results a large change in multifragmentation patterns may be understood as a simple phase space consequence, invoking neither phase transitions, nor equation of state information. These results are used to illustrate physical quantities which are ambiguous to deduce from experimental fragment measurements. 14 refs., 4 figs

  8. Statistical methods in nonlinear dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems leads to exponential divergence of trajectories that are initially arbitrarily close, and hence to unpredictability. Statistical methods have been found to be helpful in extracting useful information about such systems. In this paper, we review briefly some statistical ...

  9. [''R"--project for statistical computing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dessau, R.B.; Pipper, Christian Bressen

    2008-01-01

    An introduction to the R project for statistical computing (www.R-project.org) is presented. The main topics are: 1. To make the professional community aware of "R" as a potent and free software for graphical and statistical analysis of medical data; 2. Simple well-known statistical tests are fai...... are fairly easy to perform in R, but more complex modelling requires programming skills; 3. R is seen as a tool for teaching statistics and implementing complex modelling of medical data among medical professionals Udgivelsesdato: 2008/1/28......An introduction to the R project for statistical computing (www.R-project.org) is presented. The main topics are: 1. To make the professional community aware of "R" as a potent and free software for graphical and statistical analysis of medical data; 2. Simple well-known statistical tests...

  10. Projection operator techniques in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabert, H.

    1982-01-01

    This book is an introduction to the application of the projection operator technique to the statistical mechanics of irreversible processes. After a general introduction to the projection operator technique and statistical thermodynamics the Fokker-Planck and the master equation approach are described together with the response theory. Then, as applications the damped harmonic oscillator, simple fluids, and the spin relaxation are considered. (HSI)

  11. Dynamic wall demonstration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakatsui, L.; Mayhew, W.

    1990-12-01

    The dynamic wall concept is a ventilation strategy that can be applied to a single family dwelling. With suitable construction, outside air can be admitted through the exterior walls of the house to the interior space to function as ventilation air. The construction and performance monitoring of a demonstration house built to test the dynamic wall concept in Sherwood Park, Alberta, is described. The project had the objectives of demonstrating and assessing the construction methods; determining the cost-effectiveness of the concept in Alberta; analyzing the operation of the dynamic wall system; and determining how other components and systems in the house interact with the dynamic wall. The exterior wall construction consisted of vinyl siding, spun-bonded polyolefin-backed (SBPO) rigid fiberglass sheathing, 38 mm by 89 mm framing, fiberglass batt insulation and 12.7 mm drywall. The mechanical system was designed to operate in the dynamic (negative pressure) mode, however flexibility was provided to allow operation in the static (balanced pressure) mode to permit monitoring of the walls as if they were in a conventional house. The house was monitored by an extensive computerized monitoring system. Dynamic wall operation was dependent on pressure and temperature differentials between indoor and outdoor as well as wind speed and direction. The degree of heat gain was found to be ca 74% of the indoor-outdoor temperature differential. Temperature of incoming dynamic air was significantly affected by solar radiation and measurement of indoor air pollutants found no significant levels. 4 refs., 34 figs., 11 tabs.

  12. Functional integral approach to classical statistical dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, R.V.

    1980-04-01

    A functional integral method is developed for the statistical solution of nonlinear stochastic differential equations which arise in classical dynamics. The functional integral approach provides a very natural and elegant derivation of the statistical dynamical equations that have been derived using the operator formalism of Martin, Siggia, and Rose

  13. Dynamic Underground Stripping Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aines, R.; Newmark, R.; McConachie, W.; Udell, K.; Rice, D.; Ramirez, A.; Siegel, W.; Buettner, M.; Daily, W.; Krauter, P.; Folsom, E.; Boegel, A.J.; Bishop, D.; Udell, K.

    1992-01-01

    LLNL is collaborating with the UC Berkeley College of Engineering to develop and demonstrate a system of thermal remediation and underground imaging techniques for use in rapid cleanup of localized underground spills. Called ''Dynamic Stripping'' to reflect the rapid and controllable nature of the process, it will combine steam injection, direct electrical heating, and tomographic geophysical imaging in a cleanup of the LLNL gasoline spill. In the first 8 months of the project, a Clean Site engineering test was conducted to prove the field application of the techniques before moving the contaminated site in FY 92

  14. Statistical physics of language dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loreto, Vittorio; Baronchelli, Andrea; Mukherjee, Animesh; Puglisi, Andrea; Tria, Francesca

    2011-04-01

    Language dynamics is a rapidly growing field that focuses on all processes related to the emergence, evolution, change and extinction of languages. Recently, the study of self-organization and evolution of language and meaning has led to the idea that a community of language users can be seen as a complex dynamical system, which collectively solves the problem of developing a shared communication framework through the back-and-forth signaling between individuals. We shall review some of the progress made in the past few years and highlight potential future directions of research in this area. In particular, the emergence of a common lexicon and of a shared set of linguistic categories will be discussed, as examples corresponding to the early stages of a language. The extent to which synthetic modeling is nowadays contributing to the ongoing debate in cognitive science will be pointed out. In addition, the burst of growth of the web is providing new experimental frameworks. It makes available a huge amount of resources, both as novel tools and data to be analyzed, allowing quantitative and large-scale analysis of the processes underlying the emergence of a collective information and language dynamics.

  15. Statistical dynamics of religion evolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.; Petroni, F.

    2009-10-01

    A religion affiliation can be considered as a “degree of freedom” of an agent on the human genre network. A brief review is given on the state of the art in data analysis and modelization of religious “questions” in order to suggest and if possible initiate further research, after using a “statistical physics filter”. We present a discussion of the evolution of 18 so-called religions, as measured through their number of adherents between 1900 and 2000. Some emphasis is made on a few cases presenting a minimum or a maximum in the investigated time range-thereby suggesting a competitive ingredient to be considered, besides the well accepted “at birth” attachment effect. The importance of the “external field” is still stressed through an Avrami late stage crystal growth-like parameter. The observed features and some intuitive interpretations point to opinion based models with vector, rather than scalar, like agents.

  16. Statistics from dynamics in curved spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, L.; Wang, Y.

    1989-01-01

    We consider quantum fields of spin 0, 1/2, 1, 3/2, and 2 with a nonzero mass in curved spacetime. We show that the dynamical Bogolubov transformations associated with gravitationally induced particle creation imply the connection between spin and statistics: By embedding two flat regions in a curved spacetime, we find that only when one imposes Bose-Einstein statistics for an integer-spin field and Fermi-Dirac statistics for a half-integer-spin field in the first flat region is the same type of statistics propagated from the first to the second flat region. This derivation of the flat-spacetime spin-statistics theorem makes use of curved-spacetime dynamics and does not reduce to any proof given in flat spacetime. We also show in the same manner that parastatistics, up to the fourth order, are consistent with the dynamical evolution of curved spacetime

  17. Editorial to: Six papers on Dynamic Statistical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    statistical methodology and theory for large and complex data sets that included biostatisticians and mathematical statisticians from three faculties at the University of Copenhagen. The satellite meeting took place August 17–19, 2011. Its purpose was to bring together researchers in statistics and related......The following six papers are based on invited lectures at the satellite meeting held at the University of Copenhagen before the 58th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute in Dublin in 2011. At the invitation of the Bernoulli Society, the satellite meeting...... was organized around the theme “Dynamic Statistical Models” as a part of the Program of Excellence at the University of Copenhagen on “Statistical methods for complex and high dimensional models” (http://statistics.ku.dk/). The Excellence Program in Statistics was a research project to develop and investigate...

  18. Nonequilibrium statistical averages and thermo field dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marinaro, A.; Scarpetta, Q.

    1984-01-01

    An extension of thermo field dynamics is proposed, which permits the computation of nonequilibrium statistical averages. The Brownian motion of a quantum oscillator is treated as an example. In conclusion it is pointed out that the procedure proposed to computation of time-dependent statistical average gives the correct two-point Green function for the damped oscillator. A simple extension can be used to compute two-point Green functions of free particles

  19. Correcting a Persistent Manhattan Project Statistical Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Cameron

    2011-04-01

    In his 1987 autobiography, Major-General Kenneth Nichols, who served as the Manhattan Project's ``District Engineer'' under General Leslie Groves, related that when the Clinton Engineer Works at Oak Ridge, TN, was completed it was consuming nearly one-seventh (~ 14%) of the electric power being generated in the United States. This statement has been reiterated in several editions of a Department of Energy publication on the Manhattan Project. This remarkable claim has been checked against power generation and consumption figures available in Manhattan Engineer District documents, Tennessee Valley Authority records, and historical editions of the Statistical Abstract of the United States. The correct figure is closer to 0.9% of national generation. A speculation will be made as to the origin of Nichols' erroneous one-seventh figure.

  20. Zeno dynamics in quantum statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Andreas U

    2003-01-01

    We study the quantum Zeno effect in quantum statistical mechanics within the operator algebraic framework. We formulate a condition for the appearance of the effect in W*-dynamical systems, in terms of the short-time behaviour of the dynamics. Examples of quantum spin systems show that this condition can be effectively applied to quantum statistical mechanical models. Furthermore, we derive an explicit form of the Zeno generator, and use it to construct Gibbs equilibrium states for the Zeno dynamics. As a concrete example, we consider the X-Y model, for which we show that a frequent measurement at a microscopic level, e.g. a single lattice site, can produce a macroscopic effect in changing the global equilibrium

  1. Maya Studio Projects Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Palamar, Todd

    2009-01-01

    The only hands-on book devoted to mastering Maya's dynamics tools for water, wind, and fire. In the world of animation, the ability to create realistic water, wind, and fire effects is key. Autodesk Maya software includes powerful dynamics tools that have been used to design breathtaking effects for movies, games, commercials, and short films. This professional guide teaches you the primary techniques you need to make the most of Maya's toolkit, so you'll soon be creating water that ripples, gusting winds and gentle breezes, and flickering fires the way Hollywood pros do. The one-of-a-kind boo

  2. Environmental radiations and childhood dynamic statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakka, Masatoshi

    1981-01-01

    In Fukushima prefecture the first nuclear power plant attained criticality in 1971. Since then 6 reactors have been in operation. Increasing concern is the possible adverse effects due to ionizing radiations released from nuclear reactors. As the radiation level around the nuclear power plants is usually low, induced effects are necessarily delayed ones which require tens of years to appear. Among other tissues, embryos and foetuses are most radiosensitive and induced effects result in the change of childhood dynamic statistics. In this report dynamic statistics including stillbirth, perinatal death, neonatal death, infant death, 3rd year examinations were surveyed in 18 health centers in the prefecture from 1961 to 1979. Environmental radiation levels in each district (health centers) were compared and were arranged in order, 1, 2, ... etc. Dynamic statistics were also compared for each district and were arranged in order. Order correlation coefficients were calculated and a linearity between radiation level and health status was tested. No significant values were obtained ranging from 0.66 to -0.43 of correlation coefficients. Still birth decreased 4.4%/y since 1963 and neonatal death decreased 6.7%/y and infant death also decreased 8.7%/y since 1957 on an average. These decreases were negatively correlated with the proliferation of water supply service, sewage service and increase of physicians in 18 districts including 2 which are under continuous observation of environmental radiations released from nuclear power plants. Childhood dynamic statistics have been turning better in the last 10 years in prefecture with the difference of 47 mR/y (lowest values of 56 mR/y on an average in 3 prefectures and highest of 103 mR/y in 4 ones). Environmental radiation may initiate adverse effects on prenatal lives but the hygienic improvement in recent years must extinguish the promotion of the adverse effects. This may be a plausible explanation. (author)

  3. A Multi-Class, Interdisciplinary Project Using Elementary Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    This article describes a multi-class project that employs statistical computing and writing in a statistics class. Three courses, General Ecology, Meteorology, and Introductory Statistics, cooperated on a project for the EPA's Student Design Competition. The continuing investigation has also spawned several undergraduate research projects in…

  4. Benchmarks and statistics of entanglement dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiersch, Markus

    2009-01-01

    In the present thesis we investigate how the quantum entanglement of multicomponent systems evolves under realistic conditions. More specifically, we focus on open quantum systems coupled to the (uncontrolled) degrees of freedom of an environment. We identify key quantities that describe the entanglement dynamics, and provide efficient tools for its calculation. For quantum systems of high dimension, entanglement dynamics can be characterized with high precision. In the first part of this work, we derive evolution equations for entanglement. These formulas determine the entanglement after a given time in terms of a product of two distinct quantities: the initial amount of entanglement and a factor that merely contains the parameters that characterize the dynamics. The latter is given by the entanglement evolution of an initially maximally entangled state. A maximally entangled state thus benchmarks the dynamics, and hence allows for the immediate calculation or - under more general conditions - estimation of the change in entanglement. Thereafter, a statistical analysis supports that the derived (in-)equalities describe the entanglement dynamics of the majority of weakly mixed and thus experimentally highly relevant states with high precision. The second part of this work approaches entanglement dynamics from a topological perspective. This allows for a quantitative description with a minimum amount of assumptions about Hilbert space (sub-)structure and environment coupling. In particular, we investigate the limit of increasing system size and density of states, i.e. the macroscopic limit. In this limit, a universal behaviour of entanglement emerges following a ''reference trajectory'', similar to the central role of the entanglement dynamics of a maximally entangled state found in the first part of the present work. (orig.)

  5. Benchmarks and statistics of entanglement dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiersch, Markus

    2009-09-04

    In the present thesis we investigate how the quantum entanglement of multicomponent systems evolves under realistic conditions. More specifically, we focus on open quantum systems coupled to the (uncontrolled) degrees of freedom of an environment. We identify key quantities that describe the entanglement dynamics, and provide efficient tools for its calculation. For quantum systems of high dimension, entanglement dynamics can be characterized with high precision. In the first part of this work, we derive evolution equations for entanglement. These formulas determine the entanglement after a given time in terms of a product of two distinct quantities: the initial amount of entanglement and a factor that merely contains the parameters that characterize the dynamics. The latter is given by the entanglement evolution of an initially maximally entangled state. A maximally entangled state thus benchmarks the dynamics, and hence allows for the immediate calculation or - under more general conditions - estimation of the change in entanglement. Thereafter, a statistical analysis supports that the derived (in-)equalities describe the entanglement dynamics of the majority of weakly mixed and thus experimentally highly relevant states with high precision. The second part of this work approaches entanglement dynamics from a topological perspective. This allows for a quantitative description with a minimum amount of assumptions about Hilbert space (sub-)structure and environment coupling. In particular, we investigate the limit of increasing system size and density of states, i.e. the macroscopic limit. In this limit, a universal behaviour of entanglement emerges following a ''reference trajectory'', similar to the central role of the entanglement dynamics of a maximally entangled state found in the first part of the present work. (orig.)

  6. Statistical estimation of nuclear reactor dynamic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummins, J.D.

    1962-02-01

    This report discusses the study of the noise in nuclear reactors and associated power plant. The report is divided into three distinct parts. In the first part parameters which influence the dynamic behaviour of some reactors will be specified and their effect on dynamic performance described. Methods of estimating dynamic parameters using statistical signals will be described in detail together with descriptions of the usefulness of the results, the accuracy and related topics. Some experiments which have been and which might be performed on nuclear reactors will be described. In the second part of the report a digital computer programme will be described. The computer programme derives the correlation functions and the spectra of signals. The programme will compute the frequency response both gain and phase for physical items of plant for which simultaneous recordings of input and output signal variations have been made. Estimations of the accuracy of the correlation functions and the spectra may be computed using the programme and the amplitude distribution of signals may also b computed. The programme is written in autocode for the Ferranti Mercury computer. In the third part of the report a practical example of the use of the method and the digital programme is presented. In order to eliminate difficulties of interpretation a very simple plant model was chosen i.e. a simple first order lag. Several interesting properties of statistical signals were measured and will be discussed. (author)

  7. Practical statistics a handbook for business projects

    CERN Document Server

    Buglear, John

    2013-01-01

    Practical Statistics is a hands-on guide to statistics, progressing by complexity of data (univariate, bivariate, multivariate) and analysis (portray, summarise, generalise) in order to give the reader a solid understanding of the fundamentals and how to apply them.

  8. Product development projects dynamics and emergent complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Schlick, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    This book primarily explores two topics: the representation of simultaneous, cooperative work processes in product development projects with the help of statistical models, and the assessment of their emergent complexity using a metric from theoretical physics (Effective Measure Complexity, EMC). It is intended to promote more effective management of development projects by shifting the focus from the structural complexity of the product being developed to the dynamic complexity of the development processes involved. The book is divided into four main parts, the first of which provides an introduction to vector autoregression models, periodic vector autoregression models and linear dynamical systems for modeling cooperative work in product development projects. The second part presents theoretical approaches for assessing complexity in the product development environment, while the third highlights and explains closed-form solutions for the complexity metric EMC for vector autoregression models and linear dyn...

  9. STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR CLASSIFYING GALAXY GROUP DYNAMICS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hou, Annie; Parker, Laura C.; Harris, William E.; Wilman, David J.

    2009-01-01

    The dynamical state of galaxy groups at intermediate redshifts can provide information about the growth of structure in the universe. We examine three goodness-of-fit tests, the Anderson-Darling (A-D), Kolmogorov, and χ 2 tests, in order to determine which statistical tool is best able to distinguish between groups that are relaxed and those that are dynamically complex. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of these three tests and show that the χ 2 test is profoundly unreliable for groups with fewer than 30 members. Power studies of the Kolmogorov and A-D tests are conducted to test their robustness for various sample sizes. We then apply these tests to a sample of the second Canadian Network for Observational Cosmology Redshift Survey (CNOC2) galaxy groups and find that the A-D test is far more reliable and powerful at detecting real departures from an underlying Gaussian distribution than the more commonly used χ 2 and Kolmogorov tests. We use this statistic to classify a sample of the CNOC2 groups and find that 34 of 106 groups are inconsistent with an underlying Gaussian velocity distribution, and thus do not appear relaxed. In addition, we compute velocity dispersion profiles (VDPs) for all groups with more than 20 members and compare the overall features of the Gaussian and non-Gaussian groups, finding that the VDPs of the non-Gaussian groups are distinct from those classified as Gaussian.

  10. The Impact of Student-Directed Projects in Introductory Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Dianna J.; Bailey, Brad; Sharp, Julia L.

    2017-01-01

    A multi-year study investigated the impact of incorporating student-directed discovery projects into introductory statistics courses. Pilot instructors at institutions across the United States taught statistics implementing student-directed projects with the help of a common set of instructional materials designed to facilitate such projects.…

  11. The effects of dynamics on statistical emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedman, W.A.

    1989-01-01

    The dynamical processes which occur during the disassembly of an excited nuclear system influence predictions arising from a statistical treatment of the decay of that system. Changes, during the decay period, in such collective properties as angular momentum, density, and kinetic energy of the emitting source affect both the mass and energy spectra of the emitted fragments. This influence will be examined. The author will explore the influence of nuclear compressibility on the decay process, in order to determine what information can be learned about this property from the products of decay. He will compare the relationship between disparate scenarios of decay: a succession of binary decays, each governed by statistics; and a full microcanonical distribution at a single freeze-out density. The author hopes to learn from the general nature of these two statistical predictions when one or the other might be more realistic, and what signatures resulting from the two models might be used to determine which accounts best for specific experimental results

  12. A Survey of Statistical Capstone Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martonosi, Susan E.; Williams, Talithia D.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we highlight the advantages of incorporating a statistical capstone experience in the undergraduate curriculum, where students perform an in-depth analysis of real-world data. Capstone experiences develop statistical thinking by allowing students to engage in a consulting-like experience that requires skills outside the scope of…

  13. Statistical dynamics of ultradiffusion in hierarchical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, S.

    1987-01-01

    In many types of disordered systems which exhibit frustration and competition, an ultrametric topology is found to exist in the space of allowable states. This ultrametric topology of states is associated with a hierarchical relaxation process called ultradiffusion. Ultradiffusion occurs in hierarchical non-linear (HNL) dynamical systems when constraints cause large scale, slow modes of motion to be subordinated to small scale, fast modes. Examples of ultradiffusion are found throughout condensed matter physics and critical phenomena (e.g. the states of spin glasses), in biophysics (e.g. the states of Hopfield networks) and in many other fields including layered computing based upon nonlinear dynamics. The statistical dynamics of ultradiffusion can be treated as a random walk on an ultrametric space. For reversible bifurcating ultrametric spaces the evolution equation governing the probability of a particle being found at site i at time t has a highly degenerate transition matrix. This transition matrix has a fractal geometry similar to the replica form proposed for spin glasses. The authors invert this fractal matrix using a recursive quad-tree (QT) method. Possible applications of hierarchical systems to communications and symbolic computing are discussed briefly

  14. A Statistical Project Control Tool for Engineering Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Garland T.

    2001-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of a Statistical Project Control Tool (SPCT) for managing engineering projects. A literature review pointed to a definition of project success, (i.e., A project is successful when the cost, schedule, technical performance, and quality satisfy the customer.) The literature review also pointed to project success factors, and traditional project control tools, and performance measures that are detailed in the report. The essential problem is that with resources becoming more limited, and an increasing number or projects, project failure is increasing, there is a limitation of existing methods and systematic methods are required. The objective of the work is to provide a new statistical project control tool for project managers. Graphs using the SPCT method plotting results of 3 successful projects and 3 failed projects are reviewed, with success and failure being defined by the owner.

  15. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  16. US Urban Forest Statistics, Values, and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J Nowak; Eric J. Greenfield

    2018-01-01

    U.S. urban land increased from 2.6% (57.9 million acres) in 2000 to 3.0% (68.0 million acres) in 2010. States with the greatest amount of urban growth were in the South/Southeast (TX, FL, NC, GA and SC). Between 2010 and 2060, urban land is projected to increase another 95.5 million acres to 163.1 million acres (8.6%) with 18 states projected to have an increase of...

  17. Dynamic Underground Stripping Demonstration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aines, R.; Newmark, R.; McConachie, W.; Rice, D.; Ramirez, A.; Siegel, W.; Buettner, M.; Daily, W.; Krauter, P.; Folsom, E.; Boegel, A.J.; Bishop, D.; udel, K.

    1992-03-01

    LLNL is collaborating with the UC Berkeley College of Engineering to develop and demonstrate a system of thermal remediation and underground imaging techniques for use in rapid cleanup of localized underground spills. Called ''Dynamic Stripping'' to reflect the rapid and controllable nature of the process, it will combine steam injection, direct electrical heating, and tomographic geophysical imaging in a cleanup of the LLNL gasoline spill. In the first 8 months of the project, a Clean Site engineering test was conducted to prove the field application of the techniques before moving to the contaminated site in FY 92

  18. On evolutionary ray-projection dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Roorda, Berend

    2011-01-01

    We introduce the ray-projection dynamics in evolutionary game theory by employing a ray projection of the relative fitness (vector) function, i.e., a projection unto the unit simplex along a ray through the origin. Ray-projection dynamics are weakly compatible in the terminology of Friedman

  19. Statistical Process Control. A Summary. FEU/PICKUP Project Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, M.; Clark, I.

    A project was conducted to develop a curriculum and training materials to be used in training industrial operatives in statistical process control (SPC) techniques. During the first phase of the project, questionnaires were sent to 685 companies (215 of which responded) to determine where SPC was being used, what type of SPC firms needed, and how…

  20. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  1. Multifragmentation: New dynamics or old statistics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moretto, L.G.; Delis, D.N.; Wozniak, G.J.

    1993-10-01

    The understanding of the fission process as it has developed over the last fifty years has been applied to multifragmentation. Two salient aspects have been discovered: 1) a strong decoupling of the entrance and exit channels with the formation of well-characterized sources: 2) a statistical competition between two-, three-, four-, five-, ... n-body decays

  2. Dynamic underground stripping demonstration project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newmark, R.L.

    1992-04-01

    LLNL is collaborating with the UC Berkeley College of Engineering to develop and demonstrate a system of thermal remediation techniques for rapid cleanup of localized underground spills. Called dynamic stripping to reflect the rapid and controllable nature of the process, it will combine steam injection, direct electrical heating, and tomographic geophysical imaging in a cleanup of the LLNL gasoline spill. In the first eight months of the project, a Clean Site engineering test was conducted to prove the field application of the techniques. Tests then began on the contaminated site in FY 1992. This report describes the work at the Clean Site, including design and performance criteria, test results, interpretations, and conclusions. We fielded 'a wide range of new designs and techniques, some successful and some not. In this document, we focus on results and performance, lessons learned, and design and operational changes recommended for work at the contaminated site. Each section focuses on a different aspect of the work and can be considered a self-contained contribution

  3. Dynamics and statistics of unstable quantum states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokolov, V.V.; Zelevinsky, V.G.

    1989-01-01

    The statistical theory of spectra formulated in terms of random matrices is extended to unstable states. The energies and widths of these states are treated as real and imaginary parts of complex eigenvalues for an effective non-hermitian hamiltonian. Eigenvalue statistics are investigated under simple assumptions. If the coupling through common decay channels is weak we obtain a Wigner distribution for the level spacings and a Porter-Thomas one for the widths, with the only exception for spacings less than widths where level repulsion fades out. Meanwhile in the complex energy plane the repulsion of eigenvalues is quadratic in accordance with the T-noninvariant character of decaying systems. In the opposite case of strong coupling with the continuum, k short-lived states are formed (k is the number of open decay channels). These states accumulate almost the whole total width, the rest of the states becoming long-lived. Such a perestroika corresponds to separation of direct processes (a nuclear analogue of Dicke coherent superradiance). At small channel number, Ericson fluctuations of the cross sections are found to be suppressed. The one-channel case is considered in detail. The joint distribution of energies and widths is obtained. The average cross sections and density of unstable states are calculated. (orig.)

  4. Null lifts and projective dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cariglia, Marco, E-mail: marco@iceb.ufop.br

    2015-11-15

    We describe natural Hamiltonian systems using projective geometry. The null lift procedure endows the tangent bundle with a projective structure where the null Hamiltonian is identified with a projective conic and induces a Weyl geometry. Projective transformations generate a set of known and new dualities between Hamiltonian systems, as for example the phenomenon of coupling-constant metamorphosis. We conclude outlining how this construction can be extended to the quantum case for Eisenhart–Duval lifts.

  5. Features of statistical dynamics in a finite system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Shiwei; Sakata, Fumihiko; Zhuo Yizhong

    2002-01-01

    We study features of statistical dynamics in a finite Hamilton system composed of a relevant one degree of freedom coupled to an irrelevant multidegree of freedom system through a weak interaction. Special attention is paid on how the statistical dynamics changes depending on the number of degrees of freedom in the irrelevant system. It is found that the macrolevel statistical aspects are strongly related to an appearance of the microlevel chaotic motion, and a dissipation of the relevant motion is realized passing through three distinct stages: dephasing, statistical relaxation, and equilibrium regimes. It is clarified that the dynamical description and the conventional transport approach provide us with almost the same macrolevel and microlevel mechanisms only for the system with a very large number of irrelevant degrees of freedom. It is also shown that the statistical relaxation in the finite system is an anomalous diffusion and the fluctuation effects have a finite correlation time

  6. Statistical and dynamical remastering of classic exoplanet systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Benjamin Earl

    The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. In this dissertation, I will review our efforts to improve the statistical analyses of radial velocity (RV) data and their applications to some renown, dynamically complex exoplanet system. In the first project (Chapters 2 and 4), we develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) algorithm to tackle the aforementioned difficult aspects of data analysis. We test the robustness of the algorithm in regards to the number of modeled planets (model dimensionality) and increasing dynamical strength. We apply RUN DMC to a couple classic multi-planet systems and one highly debated system from radial velocity surveys. In the second project (Chapter 5), we analyze RV data of 55 Cancri, a wide binary system known to harbor five planetary orbiting the primary. We find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet to enter the stellar photosphere through its periastron passage. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50+/-6 10 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. In the third project (Chapters 3, 4, 6), we analyze RV data of Gliese 876, a four planet system with three participating in a multi-body resonance, i.e. a Laplace resonance. From a combined observational and statistical analysis computing Bayes factors, we find a four-planet model is favored over one with three-planets. Conditioned on this preferred model, we meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital

  7. Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb-Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result-the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

  8. Boltzmann and Einstein: Statistics and dynamics –An unsolved ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The struggle of Boltzmann with the proper description of the behavior of classical macroscopic bodies in equilibrium in terms of the properties of the particles out of which they consist will be sketched. He used both a dynamical and a statistical method. However, Einstein strongly disagreed with Boltzmann's statistical method ...

  9. Consistent dynamical and statistical description of fission and comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shunuan, Wang [Chinese Nuclear Data Center, Beijing, BJ (China)

    1996-06-01

    The research survey of consistent dynamical and statistical description of fission is briefly introduced. The channel theory of fission with diffusive dynamics based on Bohr channel theory of fission and Fokker-Planck equation and Kramers-modified Bohr-Wheeler expression according to Strutinsky method given by P.Frobrich et al. are compared and analyzed. (2 figs.).

  10. Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning

    CERN Document Server

    Melchiors, Philipp

    2015-01-01

    This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.

  11. The GenABEL Project for statistical genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karssen, Lennart C; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Aulchenko, Yurii S

    2016-01-01

    Development of free/libre open source software is usually done by a community of people with an interest in the tool. For scientific software, however, this is less often the case. Most scientific software is written by only a few authors, often a student working on a thesis. Once the paper describing the tool has been published, the tool is no longer developed further and is left to its own device. Here we describe the broad, multidisciplinary community we formed around a set of tools for statistical genomics. The GenABEL project for statistical omics actively promotes open interdisciplinary development of statistical methodology and its implementation in efficient and user-friendly software under an open source licence. The software tools developed withing the project collectively make up the GenABEL suite, which currently consists of eleven tools. The open framework of the project actively encourages involvement of the community in all stages, from formulation of methodological ideas to application of software to specific data sets. A web forum is used to channel user questions and discussions, further promoting the use of the GenABEL suite. Developer discussions take place on a dedicated mailing list, and development is further supported by robust development practices including use of public version control, code review and continuous integration. Use of this open science model attracts contributions from users and developers outside the "core team", facilitating agile statistical omics methodology development and fast dissemination.

  12. Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Simon N

    2010-08-26

    Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.

  13. Statistical projection effects in a hydrodynamic pilot-wave system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáenz, Pedro J.; Cristea-Platon, Tudor; Bush, John W. M.

    2018-03-01

    Millimetric liquid droplets can walk across the surface of a vibrating fluid bath, self-propelled through a resonant interaction with their own guiding or `pilot' wave fields. These walking droplets, or `walkers', exhibit several features previously thought to be peculiar to the microscopic, quantum realm. In particular, walkers confined to circular corrals manifest a wave-like statistical behaviour reminiscent of that of electrons in quantum corrals. Here we demonstrate that localized topological inhomogeneities in an elliptical corral may lead to resonant projection effects in the walker's statistics similar to those reported in quantum corrals. Specifically, we show that a submerged circular well may drive the walker to excite specific eigenmodes in the bath that result in drastic changes in the particle's statistical behaviour. The well tends to attract the walker, leading to a local peak in the walker's position histogram. By placing the well at one of the foci, a mode with maxima near the foci is preferentially excited, leading to a projection effect in the walker's position histogram towards the empty focus, an effect strongly reminiscent of the quantum mirage. Finally, we demonstrate that the mean pilot-wave field has the same form as the histogram describing the walker's statistics.

  14. Team dynamics in complex projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.; Vroome, E.E.M. de; Dhondt, S.; Gaspersz, J.B.R.

    2012-01-01

    Complexity of projects is hotly debated and a factor which affects innovativeness of team performance. Much attention in the past is paid to technical complexity and many issues are related to natural and physical sciences. A growing awareness of the importance of socioorganisational issues is

  15. Quantum versus classical statistical dynamics of an ultracold Bose gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berges, Juergen; Gasenzer, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the conditions under which quantum fluctuations are relevant for the quantitative interpretation of experiments with ultracold Bose gases. This requires to go beyond the description in terms of the Gross-Pitaevskii and Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov mean-field theories, which can be obtained as classical (statistical) field-theory approximations of the quantum many-body problem. We employ functional-integral techniques based on the two-particle irreducible (2PI) effective action. The role of quantum fluctuations is studied within the nonperturbative 2PI 1/N expansion to next-to-leading order. At this accuracy level memory integrals enter the dynamic equations, which differ for quantum and classical statistical descriptions. This can be used to obtain a classicality condition for the many-body dynamics. We exemplify this condition by studying the nonequilibrium evolution of a one-dimensional Bose gas of sodium atoms, and discuss some distinctive properties of quantum versus classical statistical dynamics

  16. Statistical properties of chaotic dynamical systems which exhibit strange attractors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, R.V.; Oberman, C.R.

    1981-07-01

    A path integral method is developed for the calculation of the statistical properties of turbulent dynamical systems. The method is applicable to conservative systems which exhibit a transition to stochasticity as well as dissipative systems which exhibit strange attractors. A specific dissipative mapping is considered in detail which models the dynamics of a Brownian particle in a wave field with a broad frequency spectrum. Results are presented for the low order statistical moments for three turbulent regimes which exhibit strange attractors corresponding to strong, intermediate, and weak collisional damping

  17. Molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo calculations in statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, W.W.; Erpenbeck, J.J.

    1976-01-01

    Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics calculations on statistical mechanical systems is reviewed giving some of the more significant recent developments. It is noted that the term molecular dynamics refers to the time-averaging technique for hard-core and square-well interactions and for continuous force-law interactions. Ergodic questions, methodology, quantum mechanical, Lorentz, and one-dimensional, hard-core, and square and triangular-well systems, short-range soft potentials, and other systems are included. 268 references

  18. Statistical analysis of dynamic parameters of the core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionov, V.S.

    2007-01-01

    The transients of various types were investigated for the cores of zero power critical facilities in RRC KI and NPP. Dynamic parameters of neutron transients were explored by tool statistical analysis. Its have sufficient duration, few channels for currents of chambers and reactivity and also some channels for technological parameters. On these values the inverse period. reactivity, lifetime of neutrons, reactivity coefficients and some effects of a reactivity are determinate, and on the values were restored values of measured dynamic parameters as result of the analysis. The mathematical means of statistical analysis were used: approximation(A), filtration (F), rejection (R), estimation of parameters of descriptive statistic (DSP), correlation performances (kk), regression analysis(KP), the prognosis (P), statistician criteria (SC). The calculation procedures were realized by computer language MATLAB. The reasons of methodical and statistical errors are submitted: inadequacy of model operation, precision neutron-physical parameters, features of registered processes, used mathematical model in reactivity meters, technique of processing for registered data etc. Examples of results of statistical analysis. Problems of validity of the methods used for definition and certification of values of statistical parameters and dynamic characteristics are considered (Authors)

  19. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  20. Exploring Foundation Concepts in Introductory Statistics Using Dynamic Data Points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekol, George

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses introductory statistics students' verbal and gestural expressions as they interacted with a dynamic sketch (DS) designed using "Sketchpad" software. The DS involved numeric data points built on the number line whose values changed as the points were dragged along the number line. The study is framed on aggregate…

  1. Effective control of complex turbulent dynamical systems through statistical functionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majda, Andrew J; Qi, Di

    2017-05-30

    Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among complex systems in science and engineering, including climate, material, and neural science. Control of these complex systems is a grand challenge, for example, in mitigating the effects of climate change or safe design of technology with fully developed shear turbulence. Control of flows in the transition to turbulence, where there is a small dimension of instabilities about a basic mean state, is an important and successful discipline. In complex turbulent dynamical systems, it is impossible to track and control the large dimension of instabilities, which strongly interact and exchange energy, and new control strategies are needed. The goal of this paper is to propose an effective statistical control strategy for complex turbulent dynamical systems based on a recent statistical energy principle and statistical linear response theory. We illustrate the potential practical efficiency and verify this effective statistical control strategy on the 40D Lorenz 1996 model in forcing regimes with various types of fully turbulent dynamics with nearly one-half of the phase space unstable.

  2. Geometry and topology in hamiltonian dynamics and statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Pettini, Marco

    2007-01-01

    Explores the foundations of hamiltonian dynamical systems and statistical mechanics, in particular phase transitions, from the point of view of geometry and topology. This book provides an overview of the research in the area. Using geometrical thinking to solve fundamental problems in these areas could be highly productive

  3. A statistical proposal for environmental impact assessment of development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plazas C, Julian A; De J Lema T, Alvaro; Leon P, Juan Diego

    2009-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment of development projects is a fundamental process, which main goal is to avoid that their construction and functioning, lead to serious and negative consequences on the environment. Some of the most important limitations of the models employed to assess environmental impacts, are the subjectivity of its parameters and weights, and the multicolineality among the variables, which represent high quantities of similar information. This work presents a multivariate statistical-based method that tries to diminish such limitations. For this purpose, environmental impact assessment, is valuated through different environmental impact attributes and environmental elements, synthesized in an environmental quality index (ICA in Spanish). ICA can be applied at different levels, such as at a project level, or applied only at a partial level on one or some environmental components.

  4. Dynamics of EEG functional connectivity during statistical learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Brigitta; Janacsek, Karolina; Takács, Ádám; Kóbor, Andrea; Zavecz, Zsófia; Nemeth, Dezso

    2017-10-01

    Statistical learning is a fundamental mechanism of the brain, which extracts and represents regularities of our environment. Statistical learning is crucial in predictive processing, and in the acquisition of perceptual, motor, cognitive, and social skills. Although previous studies have revealed competitive neurocognitive processes underlying statistical learning, the neural communication of the related brain regions (functional connectivity, FC) has not yet been investigated. The present study aimed to fill this gap by investigating FC networks that promote statistical learning in humans. Young adults (N=28) performed a statistical learning task while 128-channels EEG was acquired. The task involved probabilistic sequences, which enabled to measure incidental/implicit learning of conditional probabilities. Phase synchronization in seven frequency bands was used to quantify FC between cortical regions during the first, second, and third periods of the learning task, respectively. Here we show that statistical learning is negatively correlated with FC of the anterior brain regions in slow (theta) and fast (beta) oscillations. These negative correlations increased as the learning progressed. Our findings provide evidence that dynamic antagonist brain networks serve a hallmark of statistical learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Learning predictive statistics from temporal sequences: Dynamics and strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2017-10-01

    Human behavior is guided by our expectations about the future. Often, we make predictions by monitoring how event sequences unfold, even though such sequences may appear incomprehensible. Event structures in the natural environment typically vary in complexity, from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. How do we learn these structures? Here we investigate the dynamics of structure learning by tracking human responses to temporal sequences that change in structure unbeknownst to the participants. Participants were asked to predict the upcoming item following a probabilistic sequence of symbols. Using a Markov process, we created a family of sequences, from simple frequency statistics (e.g., some symbols are more probable than others) to context-based statistics (e.g., symbol probability is contingent on preceding symbols). We demonstrate the dynamics with which individuals adapt to changes in the environment's statistics-that is, they extract the behaviorally relevant structures to make predictions about upcoming events. Further, we show that this structure learning relates to individual decision strategy; faster learning of complex structures relates to selection of the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) rather than matching of the exact sequence statistics. Our findings provide evidence for alternate routes to learning of behaviorally relevant statistics that facilitate our ability to predict future events in variable environments.

  6. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  7. Dynamics, stability, and statistics on lattices and networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Livi, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    These lectures aim at surveying some dynamical models that have been widely explored in the recent scientific literature as case studies of complex dynamical evolution, emerging from the spatio-temporal organization of several coupled dynamical variables. The first message is that a suitable mathematical description of such models needs tools and concepts borrowed from the general theory of dynamical systems and from out-of-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The second message is that the overall scenario is definitely reacher than the standard problems in these fields. For instance, systems exhibiting complex unpredictable evolution do not necessarily exhibit deterministic chaotic behavior (i.e., Lyapunov chaos) as it happens for dynamical models made of a few degrees of freedom. In fact, a very large number of spatially organized dynamical variables may yield unpredictable evolution even in the absence of Lyapunov instability. Such a mechanism may emerge from the combination of spatial extension and nonlinearity. Moreover, spatial extension allows one to introduce naturally disorder, or heterogeneity of the interactions as important ingredients for complex evolution. It is worth to point out that the models discussed in these lectures share such features, despite they have been inspired by quite different physical and biological problems. Along these lectures we describe also some of the technical tools employed for the study of such models, e.g., Lyapunov stability analysis, unpredictability indicators for “stable chaos,” hydrodynamic description of transport in low spatial dimension, spectral decomposition of stochastic dynamics on directed networks, etc

  8. Dynamical and statistical aspects of intermediate energy heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoll, J.

    1987-01-01

    The lectures presented deal with three different topics relevant for the discussion of nuclear collisions at medium to high energies. The first lecture concerns a subject of general interest, the description of statistical systems and their dynamics by the concept of missing information. If presents an excellent scope to formulate statistical theories in such a way that they carefully keep track of the known (relevant) information while maximizing the ignorance about the irrelevant, unknown information. The last two lectures deal with quite actual questions of intermediate energy heavy-ion collisions. These are the multi-fragmentation dynamics of highly excited nuclear systems, and the so called subthreshold particle production. All three subjects are self-contained, and can be read without the knowledge about the other ones. (orig.)

  9. Incorporation of quantum statistical features in molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnishi, Akira; Randrup, J.

    1995-01-01

    We formulate a method for incorporating quantum fluctuations into molecular-dynamics simulations of many-body systems, such as those employed for energetic nuclear collision processes. Based on Fermi's Golden Rule, we allow spontaneous transitions to occur between the wave packets which are not energy eigenstates. The ensuing diffusive evolution in the space of the wave packet parameters exhibits appealing physical properties, including relaxation towards quantum-statistical equilibrium. (author)

  10. Statistical properties of dynamical systems – Simulation and abstract computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galatolo, Stefano; Hoyrup, Mathieu; Rojas, Cristóbal

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A survey on results about computation and computability on the statistical properties of dynamical systems. ► Computability and non-computability results for invariant measures. ► A short proof for the computability of the convergence speed of ergodic averages. ► A kind of “constructive” version of the pointwise ergodic theorem. - Abstract: We survey an area of recent development, relating dynamics to theoretical computer science. We discuss some aspects of the theoretical simulation and computation of the long term behavior of dynamical systems. We will focus on the statistical limiting behavior and invariant measures. We present a general method allowing the algorithmic approximation at any given accuracy of invariant measures. The method can be applied in many interesting cases, as we shall explain. On the other hand, we exhibit some examples where the algorithmic approximation of invariant measures is not possible. We also explain how it is possible to compute the speed of convergence of ergodic averages (when the system is known exactly) and how this entails the computation of arbitrarily good approximations of points of the space having typical statistical behaviour (a sort of constructive version of the pointwise ergodic theorem).

  11. Dynamical topology and statistical properties of spatiotemporal chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Quntao; Gao, Xun; Ouyang, Qi; Wang, Hongli

    2012-12-01

    For spatiotemporal chaos described by partial differential equations, there are generally locations where the dynamical variable achieves its local extremum or where the time partial derivative of the variable vanishes instantaneously. To a large extent, the location and movement of these topologically special points determine the qualitative structure of the disordered states. We analyze numerically statistical properties of the topologically special points in one-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos. The probability distribution functions for the number of point, the lifespan, and the distance covered during their lifetime are obtained from numerical simulations. Mathematically, we establish a probabilistic model to describe the dynamics of these topologically special points. In spite of the different definitions in different spatiotemporal chaos, the dynamics of these special points can be described in a uniform approach.

  12. A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James

    2013-04-01

    Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

  13. Statistical Measures to Quantify Similarity between Molecular Dynamics Simulation Trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Farmer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Molecular dynamics simulation is commonly employed to explore protein dynamics. Despite the disparate timescales between functional mechanisms and molecular dynamics (MD trajectories, functional differences are often inferred from differences in conformational ensembles between two proteins in structure-function studies that investigate the effect of mutations. A common measure to quantify differences in dynamics is the root mean square fluctuation (RMSF about the average position of residues defined by C α -atoms. Using six MD trajectories describing three native/mutant pairs of beta-lactamase, we make comparisons with additional measures that include Jensen-Shannon, modifications of Kullback-Leibler divergence, and local p-values from 1-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These additional measures require knowing a probability density function, which we estimate by using a nonparametric maximum entropy method that quantifies rare events well. The same measures are applied to distance fluctuations between C α -atom pairs. Results from several implementations for quantitative comparison of a pair of MD trajectories are made based on fluctuations for on-residue and residue-residue local dynamics. We conclude that there is almost always a statistically significant difference between pairs of 100 ns all-atom simulations on moderate-sized proteins as evident from extraordinarily low p-values.

  14. Multivariate volume visualization through dynamic projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Shusen [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Wang, Bei [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Thiagarajan, Jayaraman J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bremer, Peer -Timo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2014-11-01

    We propose a multivariate volume visualization framework that tightly couples dynamic projections with a high-dimensional transfer function design for interactive volume visualization. We assume that the complex, high-dimensional data in the attribute space can be well-represented through a collection of low-dimensional linear subspaces, and embed the data points in a variety of 2D views created as projections onto these subspaces. Through dynamic projections, we present animated transitions between different views to help the user navigate and explore the attribute space for effective transfer function design. Our framework not only provides a more intuitive understanding of the attribute space but also allows the design of the transfer function under multiple dynamic views, which is more flexible than being restricted to a single static view of the data. For large volumetric datasets, we maintain interactivity during the transfer function design via intelligent sampling and scalable clustering. As a result, using examples in combustion and climate simulations, we demonstrate how our framework can be used to visualize interesting structures in the volumetric space.

  15. Statistical ensembles and molecular dynamics studies of anisotropic solids. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, J.R.; Rahman, A.

    1985-01-01

    We have recently discussed how the Parrinello--Rahman theory can be brought into accord with the theory of the elastic and thermodynamic behavior of anisotropic media. This involves the isoenthalpic--isotension ensemble of statistical mechanics. Nose has developed a canonical ensemble form of molecular dynamics. We combine Nose's ideas with the Parrinello--Rahman theory to obtain a canonical form of molecular dynamics appropriate to the study of anisotropic media subjected to arbitrary external stress. We employ this isothermal--isotension ensemble in a study of a fcc→ close-packed structural phase transformation in a Lennard-Jones solid subjected to uniaxial compression. Our interpretation of the Nose theory does not involve a scaling of the time variable. This latter fact leads to simplifications when studying the time dependence of quantities

  16. Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchewka, Avi; Granot, Er'el

    2015-04-01

    The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested.

  17. Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchewka, Avi; Granot, Er’el

    2015-01-01

    The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested

  18. Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchewka, Avi, E-mail: avi.marchewka@gmail.com [Galei Tchelet St 8 Herzliya (Israel); Granot, Er’el [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Ariel University, Ariel (Israel)

    2015-04-15

    The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested.

  19. Statistical physics approaches to subnetwork dynamics in biochemical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravi, B.; Sollich, P.

    2017-08-01

    We apply a Gaussian variational approximation to model reduction in large biochemical networks of unary and binary reactions. We focus on a small subset of variables (subnetwork) of interest, e.g. because they are accessible experimentally, embedded in a larger network (bulk). The key goal is to write dynamical equations reduced to the subnetwork but still retaining the effects of the bulk. As a result, the subnetwork-reduced dynamics contains a memory term and an extrinsic noise term with non-trivial temporal correlations. We first derive expressions for this memory and noise in the linearized (Gaussian) dynamics and then use a perturbative power expansion to obtain first order nonlinear corrections. For the case of vanishing intrinsic noise, our description is explicitly shown to be equivalent to projection methods up to quadratic terms, but it is applicable also in the presence of stochastic fluctuations in the original dynamics. An example from the epidermal growth factor receptor signalling pathway is provided to probe the increased prediction accuracy and computational efficiency of our method.

  20. Flow Equation Approach to the Statistics of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, J. B.; Hastings, M. B.

    2005-03-01

    The probability distribution function of non-linear dynamical systems is governed by a linear framework that resembles quantum many-body theory, in which stochastic forcing and/or averaging over initial conditions play the role of non-zero . Besides the well-known Fokker-Planck approach, there is a related Hopf functional methodootnotetextUriel Frisch, Turbulence: The Legacy of A. N. Kolmogorov (Cambridge University Press, 1995) chapter 9.5.; in both formalisms, zero modes of linear operators describe the stationary non-equilibrium statistics. To access the statistics, we investigate the method of continuous unitary transformationsootnotetextS. D. Glazek and K. G. Wilson, Phys. Rev. D 48, 5863 (1993); Phys. Rev. D 49, 4214 (1994). (also known as the flow equation approachootnotetextF. Wegner, Ann. Phys. 3, 77 (1994).), suitably generalized to the diagonalization of non-Hermitian matrices. Comparison to the more traditional cumulant expansion method is illustrated with low-dimensional attractors. The treatment of high-dimensional dynamical systems is also discussed.

  1. Application of statistical dynamical turbulence closures to data assimilation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kane, Terence J; Frederiksen, Jorgen S

    2010-01-01

    We describe the development of an accurate yet computationally tractable statistical dynamical closure theory for general inhomogeneous turbulent flows, coined the quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation closure (QDIA), and its application to problems in data assimilation. The QDIA provides prognostic equations for evolving mean fields, covariances and higher-order non-Gaussian terms, all of which are also required in the formulation of data assimilation schemes for nonlinear geophysical flows. The QDIA is a generalization of the class of direct interaction approximation theories, initially developed by Kraichnan (1959 J. Fluid Mech. 5 497) for isotropic turbulence, to fully inhomogeneous flows and has been further generalized to allow for both inhomogeneous and non-Gaussian initial conditions and long integrations. A regularization procedure or empirical vertex renormalization that ensures correct inertial range spectra is also described. The aim of this paper is to provide a coherent mathematical description of the QDIA turbulence closure and closure-based data assimilation scheme we have labeled the statistical dynamical Kalman filter. The mathematical formalism presented has been synthesized from recent works of the authors with some additional material and is presented in sufficient detail that the paper is of a pedagogical nature.

  2. A statistical state dynamics approach to wall turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, B F; Gayme, D F; Ioannou, P J

    2017-03-13

    This paper reviews results obtained using statistical state dynamics (SSD) that demonstrate the benefits of adopting this perspective for understanding turbulence in wall-bounded shear flows. The SSD approach used in this work employs a second-order closure that retains only the interaction between the streamwise mean flow and the streamwise mean perturbation covariance. This closure restricts nonlinearity in the SSD to that explicitly retained in the streamwise constant mean flow together with nonlinear interactions between the mean flow and the perturbation covariance. This dynamical restriction, in which explicit perturbation-perturbation nonlinearity is removed from the perturbation equation, results in a simplified dynamics referred to as the restricted nonlinear (RNL) dynamics. RNL systems, in which a finite ensemble of realizations of the perturbation equation share the same mean flow, provide tractable approximations to the SSD, which is equivalent to an infinite ensemble RNL system. This infinite ensemble system, referred to as the stochastic structural stability theory system, introduces new analysis tools for studying turbulence. RNL systems provide computationally efficient means to approximate the SSD and produce self-sustaining turbulence exhibiting qualitative features similar to those observed in direct numerical simulations despite greatly simplified dynamics. The results presented show that RNL turbulence can be supported by as few as a single streamwise varying component interacting with the streamwise constant mean flow and that judicious selection of this truncated support or 'band-limiting' can be used to improve quantitative accuracy of RNL turbulence. These results suggest that the SSD approach provides new analytical and computational tools that allow new insights into wall turbulence.This article is part of the themed issue 'Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. A Tensor Statistical Model for Quantifying Dynamic Functional Connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yingying; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kim, Minjeong; Yan, Jin; Wu, Guorong

    2017-06-01

    Functional connectivity (FC) has been widely investigated in many imaging-based neuroscience and clinical studies. Since functional Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) signal is just an indirect reflection of brain activity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the FC strength only based on signal correlation. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based tensor model to derive high sensitivity and specificity connectome biomarkers at the individual level from resting-state fMRI images. First, we propose a learning-based approach to estimate the intrinsic functional connectivity. In addition to the low level region-to-region signal correlation, latent module-to-module connection is also estimated and used to provide high level heuristics for measuring connectivity strength. Furthermore, sparsity constraint is employed to automatically remove the spurious connections, thus alleviating the issue of searching for optimal threshold. Second, we integrate our learning-based approach with the sliding-window technique to further reveal the dynamics of functional connectivity. Specifically, we stack the functional connectivity matrix within each sliding window and form a 3D tensor where the third dimension denotes for time. Then we obtain dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) for each individual subject by simultaneously estimating the within-sliding-window functional connectivity and characterizing the across-sliding-window temporal dynamics. Third, in order to enhance the robustness of the connectome patterns extracted from dFC, we extend the individual-based 3D tensors to a population-based 4D tensor (with the fourth dimension stands for the training subjects) and learn the statistics of connectome patterns via 4D tensor analysis. Since our 4D tensor model jointly (1) optimizes dFC for each training subject and (2) captures the principle connectome patterns, our statistical model gains more statistical power of representing new subject than current state

  4. SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF MANAGEMENT OF "UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES" OF THE PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Богдан Владимирович ГАЙДАБРУС

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Approaches for project contingency management through risk management and influence of stakeholders. Proposed system dynamic contingency project management model. The model describes the effects of various factors on the phase of project management through contingency.

  5. SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF MANAGEMENT OF "UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES" OF THE PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    Богдан Владимирович ГАЙДАБРУС; Евгений Анатольевич ДРУЖИНИН

    2015-01-01

    Approaches for project contingency management through risk management and influence of stakeholders. Proposed system dynamic contingency project management model. The model describes the effects of various factors on the phase of project management through contingency.

  6. Statistical properties of anti-symmetrized molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnishi, A.; Randrup, J.

    1993-01-01

    We study the statistical equilibrium properties of the recently developed anti-symmetrized molecular dynamics model for heavy-ion reactions. We consider A non-interacting fermions in one dimension, either bound in a common harmonic potential or moving freely within an interval, and perform a Metropolis sampling of the corresponding parameter space. Generally the average excitation and the specific heat, considered as functions of the imposed temperature, behave in a classical manner when the canonical weight is calculated in the mean-field approximation. However, it is possible to obtain results that are much closer to the quantal behavior by modifying the weight to take approximate account of the energy fluctuations within the individual wave packets. (orig.)

  7. A foundation for the statistical dynamical theory of diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Norio

    1991-01-01

    The statistical dynamical theory is reformulated on a sounder basis. The starting wave equation is free from the so-called Takagi-Taupin (T-T) approximation. Functional calculus, an operational technique and the concept of the Green function are used as mathematical tools. Integro-differential equations are derived for the coherent (averaged) wave field and the energy flow vector of the incoherent intensity field. The formulae are exact except for assuming a model in which the fluctuation of the lattice phase is a set of Gaussian random variables defined in three-dimensional space. The general framework of the previous theory is justified within the T-T approximation. In general, however, new terms must be added and some terms have to be revised by introducing a Green function matrix. The theory may be used as a starting point when any approximate theory is developed for practical purposes. (orig.)

  8. Preliminary results of statistical dynamic experiments on a heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corran, E.R.; Cummins, J.D.

    1962-10-01

    The inherent noise signals present in a heat exchanger have been recorded and analysed in order to determine some of the statistical dynamic characteristics of the heat exchanger. These preliminary results show that the primary side temperature frequency response may be determined by analysing the inherent noise. The secondary side temperature frequency response and cross coupled temperature frequency responses between primary and secondary are poorly determined because of the presence of a non-stationary noise source in the secondary circuit of this heat exchanger. This may be overcome by correlating the dependent variables with an externally applied noise signal. Some preliminary experiments with an externally applied random telegraph type of signal are reported. (author)

  9. A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Paloski, William H.

    2002-01-01

    Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

  10. Statistical dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations for geophysical flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Kane, T J; Frederiksen, J S

    2008-01-01

    Simulations of both atmospheric and oceanic circulations at given finite resolutions are strongly dependent on the form and strengths of the dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) and in particular are sensitive to subgrid-scale transient eddies interacting with the retained scale topography and the mean flow. In this paper, we present numerical results for SSPs of the eddy-topographic force, stochastic backscatter, eddy viscosity and eddy-mean field interaction using an inhomogeneous statistical turbulence model based on a quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA). Although the theoretical description on which our model is based is for general barotropic flows, we specifically focus on global atmospheric flows where large-scale Rossby waves are present. We compare and contrast the closure-based results with an important earlier heuristic SSP of the eddy-topographic force, based on maximum entropy or statistical canonical equilibrium arguments, developed specifically for general ocean circulation models (Holloway 1992 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22 1033-46). Our results demonstrate that where strong zonal flows and Rossby waves are present, such as in the atmosphere, maximum entropy arguments are insufficient to accurately parameterize the subgrid contributions due to eddy-eddy, eddy-topographic and eddy-mean field interactions. We contrast our atmospheric results with findings for the oceans. Our study identifies subgrid-scale interactions that are currently not parameterized in numerical atmospheric climate models, which may lead to systematic defects in the simulated circulations.

  11. Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

    CERN Document Server

    Vanhoucke, Mario

    2013-01-01

    The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

  12. Statistical and dynamical properties of a dissipative kicked rotator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Diego F. M.; Leonel, Edson D.

    2014-11-01

    Some dynamical and statistical properties for a conservative as well as the dissipative problem of relativistic particles in a waveguide are considered. For the first time, two different types of dissipation namely: (i) due to viscosity and; (ii) due to inelastic collision (upon the kick) are considered individually and acting together. For the first case, and contrary to what is expected for the original Zaslavsky’s relativistic model, we show there is a critical parameter where a transition from local to global chaos occurs. On the other hand, after considering the introduction of dissipation also on the kick, the structure of the phase space changes in the sense that chaotic and periodic attractors appear. We study also the chaotic sea by using scaling arguments and we proposed an analytical argument to reinforce the validity of the scaling exponents obtained numerically. In principle such an approach can be extended to any two-dimensional map. Finally, based on the Lyapunov exponent, we show that the parameter space exhibits infinite families of self-similar shrimp-shape structures, corresponding to periodic attractors, embedded in a large region corresponding to chaotic attractors.

  13. Relationship between Students' Scores on Research Methods and Statistics, and Undergraduate Project Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossai, Peter Agbadobi Uloku

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between students' scores on Research Methods and statistics, and undergraduate project at the final year. The purpose was to find out whether students matched knowledge of research with project-writing skill. The study adopted an expost facto correlational design. Scores on Research Methods and Statistics for…

  14. The Effect of Project Based Learning on the Statistical Literacy Levels of Student 8th Grade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the effect of project based learning on 8th grade students' statistical literacy levels. A performance test was developed for this aim. Quasi-experimental research model was used in this article. In this context, the statistics were taught with traditional method in the control group and it was taught using project based…

  15. Statistics on Science and Technology in Latin America, Experience with UNESCO Pilot Projects, 1972-1974.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thebaud, Schiller

    This report examines four UNESCO pilot projects undertaken in 1972 in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay to study the methods used for national statistical surveys of science and technology. The projects specifically addressed the problems of comparing statistics gathered by different methods in different countries. Surveys carried out in Latin…

  16. Using R-Project for Free Statistical Analysis in Extension Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiafico, Salvatore S.

    2013-01-01

    One option for Extension professionals wishing to use free statistical software is to use online calculators, which are useful for common, simple analyses. A second option is to use a free computing environment capable of performing statistical analyses, like R-project. R-project is free, cross-platform, powerful, and respected, but may be…

  17. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  18. Statistics Based Models for the Dynamics of Chernivtsi Children Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor G. Nesteruk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. Simple mathematical models of contamination and SIR-model of spreading an infection were used to simulate the time dynamics of the unknown before children disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine. The cause of many cases of alopecia, which began in this city in August 1988 is still not fully clarified. According to the official report of the governmental commission, the last new cases occurred in the middle of November 1988, and the reason of the illness was reported as chemical exogenous intoxication. Later this illness became the name “Chernivtsi chemical disease”. Nevertheless, the significantly increased number of new cases of the local alopecia was registered almost three years and is still not clarified. Objective. The comparison of two different versions of the disease: chemical exogenous intoxication and infection. Identification of the parameters of mathematical models and prediction of the disease development. Methods. Analytical solutions of the contamination models and SIR-model for an epidemic are obtained. The optimal values of parameters with the use of linear regression were found. Results. The optimal values of the models parameters with the use of statistical approach were identified. The calculations showed that the infectious version of the disease is more reliable in comparison with the popular contamination one. The possible date of the epidemic beginning was estimated. Conclusions. The optimal parameters of SIR-model allow calculating the realistic number of victims and other characteristics of possible epidemic. They also show that increased number of cases of local alopecia could be a part of the same epidemic as “Chernivtsi chemical disease”.

  19. Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

    2013-05-01

    To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

  20. Compound speckles and their statistical and dynamical properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanson, Steen Grüner; Jakobsen, Michael Linde; Skov Hansen, Rene

    2008-01-01

    Two issues will be treated in this presentation, both focusing on gaining a deeper understanding of dynamic speckles, aiming at the use for probing dynamical properties of scattering structures. The first issue to be addressed is the dynamics of speckles arising from illuminating a solid surface...

  1. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  2. Distinguish Dynamic Basic Blocks by Structural Statistical Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petit, Matthieu; Gotlieb, Arnaud

    Statistical testing aims at generating random test data that respect selected probabilistic properties. A distribution probability is associated with the program input space in order to achieve statistical test purpose: to test the most frequent usage of software or to maximize the probability of...... control flow path) during the test data selection. We implemented this algorithm in a statistical test data generator for Java programs. A first experimental validation is presented...

  3. Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics

  4. Statistical and dynamical downscaling assessments of precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hertig, Elke; Seubert, Stefanie; Jacobeit, Jucundus [Augsburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography; Paxian, Andreas; Vogt, Gernot; Paeth, Heiko [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography and Geology

    2012-02-15

    Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area have been defined by different percentile-based indices of extreme precipitation for autumn and winter: the number of events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, percentage, total amount, and mean daily intensity of precipitation from these events. Results from statistical downscaling applying canonical correlation analysis as well as from dynamical downscaling using the regional climate model REMO are mapped for the 1961-1990 baseline period as well as for the magnitude of change for the future time slice 2021-2050 in relation to the former period. Direct output of the coupled global circulation model ECHAM5 is used as an additional source of information. A qualitative comparison of the two different downscaling techniques indicates that under the present climate both the dynamical and the statistical techniques have skill to reproduce extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area. A good representation of the frequency of extreme precipitation events arises from the statistical downscaling approach, whereas the intensity of such events is adequately modelled by the dynamical downscaling. Concerning the change of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean area until the mid-21{sup st} century, it is projected that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will decrease in most parts of the Mediterranean area in autumn and winter. The change of the mean intensity of such events shows a rather heterogeneous pattern with intensity increases in winter most likely at topographical elevations exposed to the West, where the uplift of humid air profits by the increase of atmospheric moisture under climate change conditions. For the precipitation total from events exceeding the 95{sup th} percentile of daily precipitation, widespread decreases are indicated in autumn, whereas in winter increases occur over the western part of the Iberian Peninsula and southern France, and reductions over

  5. Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models : Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for

  6. The Effect on the 8th Grade Students' Attitude towards Statistics of Project Based Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of the project based learning approach on 8th grade students' attitude towards statistics. With this aim, an attitude scale towards statistics was developed. Quasi-experimental research model was used in this study. Following this model in the control group the traditional method was applied to teach statistics…

  7. A Laboratory Experiment, Based on the Maillard Reaction, Conducted as a Project in Introductory Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchuk, Olena; Elliott, Antony; Bhandari, Bhesh

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory experiment, based on the Maillard reaction, served as a project in Introductory Statistics for undergraduates in Food Science and Technology. By using the principles of randomization and replication and reflecting on the sources of variation in the experimental data, students reinforced the statistical concepts and techniques…

  8. Statistics in Action: The Story of a Successful Service-Learning Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHart, Mary; Ham, Jim

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to share the stories of an Introductory Statistics service-learning project in which students from both New Jersey and Michigan design and conduct phone surveys that lead to publication in local newspapers; to discuss the pedagogical benefits and challenges of the project; and to provide information for those who…

  9. Using the Student Research Project to Integrate Macroeconomics and Statistics in an Advanced Cost Accounting Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Mahamood M.; Schwartz, Bill N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses a student research project that is part of an advanced cost accounting class. The project emphasizes active learning, integrates cost accounting with macroeconomics and statistics by "learning by doing" using real world data. Students analyze sales data for a publicly listed company by focusing on the company's…

  10. Dynamic Capabilities and Project Management in Small Software Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørbjerg, Jacob; Nielsen, Peter Axel; Persson, John Stouby

    2017-01-01

    A small software company depends on its capability to adapt to rapid technological and other changes in its environment—its dynamic capabilities. In this paper, we argue that to evolve and maintain its dynamic capabilities a small software company must pay attention to the interaction between...... dynamic capabilities at different levels of the company — particularly between the project management and the company levels. We present a case study of a small software company and show how successful dynamic capabilities at the company level can affect project management in small software companies...

  11. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  12. Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crooks, Gavin E; Sivak, David A

    2011-01-01

    Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen–Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence

  13. Heavy Metals Contaminated Soil Project, Resource Recovery Project, and Dynamic Underground Stripping Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Technology Development (EM-50) (OTD) as an element of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) in November, 1989. OTD has begun to search out, develop, test and demonstrate technologies that can now or in the future be applied to the enormous remediation problem now facing the DOE and the United States public in general. Technology demonstration projects have been designed to attack a separate problem as defined by DOE. The Heavy Metals Contaminated Soil Project was conceived to test and demonstrate off-the-shelf technologies (dominantly from the mining industry) that can be brought to bear on the problem of radionuclide and heavy metal contamination in soils and sediments. The Resource Recovery Project is tasked with identifying, developing, testing, and evaluating new and innovative technologies for the remediation of metal contaminated surface and groundwater. An innovative twist on this project is the stated goal of recovering the metals, formerly disposed of as a waste, for reuse and resale, thereby transforming them into a usable resource. Finally, the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project was developed to demonstrate and remediate underground spills of hydrocarbons from formations that are (1) too deep for excavation, and/or (2) require in-situ remediation efforts of long duration. This project has already been shown effective in reducing the time for remediation by conventional methods from an estimated 200 years at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to less than one year. The savings in time and dollars from this technology alone can be immeasurable

  14. Statistics and dynamics of strongly collective nuclear processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blocki, J.

    1985-01-01

    A short introduction to the published and not yet published papers is presented. Two methods of the dynamical calculations - a classical and a selfconsistent quantum mechanical (TDHF) one are discussed. The most interesting results are presented. All the limitations in the use of both methods are also given. 26 refs. (author)

  15. Dynamics and statistics of heavy particles in turbulent flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cencini, M.; Bec, J.; Biferale, L.; Boffetta, G.; Celani, A.; Lanotte, A.; Musacchio, S.; Toschi, F.

    2006-01-01

    We present the results of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent flows seeded with millions of passive inertial particles. The maximum Reynolds number is Re¿~ 200. We consider particles much heavier than the carrier flow in the limit when the Stokes drag force dominates their dynamical

  16. The Dynamics of Project-Based Learning Extension Courses: The "Laboratory of Social Projects" Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arantes do Amaral, Joao Alberto

    2017-01-01

    In this case study we discuss the dynamics that drive a free-of-charge project-based learning extension course. We discuss the lessons learned in the course, "Laboratory of Social Projects." The course aimed to teach project management skills to the participants. It was conducted from August to November of 2015, at Federal University of…

  17. Dynamic Response to Pedestrian Loads with Statistical Frequency Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen

    2012-01-01

    on the magnitude of the resulting response. A frequency representation of vertical pedestrian load is developed, and a compact explicit formula is developed for the magnitude of the resulting response, in terms of the damping ratio of the structure, the bandwidth of the pedestrian load, and the mean footfall...... frequency. The accuracy of the formula is verified by a statistical moment analysis using the Lyapunov equations....

  18. Electromagnetic Drop Scale Scattering Modelling for Dynamic Statistical Rain Fields

    OpenAIRE

    Hipp, Susanne

    2015-01-01

    This work simulates the scattering of electromagnetic waves by a rain field. The calculations are performed for the individual drops and accumulate to a time signal dependent on the dynamic properties of the rain field. The simulations are based on the analytical Mie scattering model for spherical rain drops and the simulation software considers the rain characteristics drop size (including their distribution in rain), motion, and frequency and temperature dependent permittivity. The performe...

  19. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  20. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  1. Foundations of Complex Systems Nonlinear Dynamics, Statistical Physics, and Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Nicolis, Gregoire

    2007-01-01

    Complexity is emerging as a post-Newtonian paradigm for approaching a large body of phenomena of concern at the crossroads of physical, engineering, environmental, life and human sciences from a unifying point of view. This book outlines the foundations of modern complexity research as it arose from the cross-fertilization of ideas and tools from nonlinear science, statistical physics and numerical simulation. It is shown how these developments lead to an understanding, both qualitative and quantitative, of the complex systems encountered in nature and in everyday experience and, conversely, h

  2. Statistical constraints on binary black hole inspiral dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galley, Chad R; Herrmann, Frank; Silberholz, John; Tiglio, Manuel [Department of Physics, Center for Fundamental Physics, Center for Scientific Computation and Mathematical Modeling, Joint Space Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Guerberoff, Gustavo, E-mail: tiglio@umd.ed [Facultad de IngenierIa, Instituto de Matematica y EstadIstica, ' Prof. Ing. Rafael Laguardia' , Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo (Uruguay)

    2010-12-21

    We perform a statistical analysis of binary black holes in the post-Newtonian approximation by systematically sampling and evolving the parameter space of initial configurations for quasi-circular inspirals. Through a principal component analysis of spin and orbital angular momentum variables, we systematically look for uncorrelated quantities and find three of them which are highly conserved in a statistical sense, both as functions of time and with respect to variations in initial spin orientations. For example, we find a combination of spin scalar products, 2S-circumflex{sub 1{center_dot}}S-circumflex{sub 2} + (S-circumflex{sub 1{center_dot}}L-circumflex) (S-circumflex{sub 2{center_dot}}L-circumflex), that is exactly conserved in time at the considered post-Newtonian order (including spin-spin and radiative effects) for binaries with equal masses and spin magnitudes evolving in a quasi-circular inspiral. We also look for and find the variables that account for the largest variations in the problem. We present binary black hole simulations of the full Einstein equations analyzing to what extent these results might carry over to the full theory in the inspiral and merger regimes. Among other applications these results should be useful both in semi-analytical and numerical building of templates of gravitational waves for gravitational wave detectors.

  3. Eddies in the Red Sea: A statistical and dynamical study

    KAUST Repository

    Zhan, Peng

    2014-06-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) data spanning 1992–2012 were analyzed to study the statistical properties of eddies in the Red Sea. An algorithm that identifies winding angles was employed to detect 4998 eddies propagating along 938 unique eddy tracks. Statistics suggest that eddies are generated across the entire Red Sea but that they are prevalent in certain regions. A high number of eddies is found in the central basin between 18°N and 24°N. More than 87% of the detected eddies have a radius ranging from 50 to 135 km. Both the intensity and relative vorticity scale of these eddies decrease as the eddy radii increase. The averaged eddy lifespan is approximately 6 weeks. AEs and cyclonic eddies (CEs) have different deformation features, and those with stronger intensities are less deformed and more circular. Analysis of long-lived eddies suggests that they are likely to appear in the central basin with AEs tending to move northward. In addition, their eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases gradually throughout their lifespans. The annual cycles of CEs and AEs differ, although both exhibit significant seasonal cycles of intensity with the winter and summer peaks appearing in February and August, respectively. The seasonal cycle of EKE is negatively correlated with stratification but positively correlated with vertical shear of horizontal velocity and eddy growth rate, suggesting that the generation of baroclinic instability is responsible for the activities of eddies in the Red Sea.

  4. Statistical behavior of time dynamics evolution of HIV infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Ramón E. R.; Santos, Iury A. X.; Nunes, Marcos G. P.; de Oliveira, Viviane M.; Barbosa, Anderson L. R.

    2017-09-01

    We use the tools of the random matrix theory (RMT) to investigate the statistical behavior of the evolution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. By means of the nearest-neighbor spacing distribution we have identified four distinct regimes of the evolution of HIV infection. We verified that at the beginning of the so-called clinical latency phase the concentration of infected cells grows slowly and evolves in a correlated way. This regime is followed by another one in which the correlation is lost and that in turn leads the system to a regime in which the increase of infected cells is faster and correlated. In the final phase, the one in which acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is stablished, the system presents maximum correlation as demonstrated by GOE distribution.

  5. Statistical dynamics of transient processes in a gas discharge plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, G.I.; Telegin, G.G.

    1991-01-01

    The properties of a gas discharge plasma to a great extent depend on random processes whose study has recently become particularly important. The present work is concerned with analyzing the statistical phenomena that occur during the prebreakdown stage in a gas discharge. Unlike other studies of breakdown in the discharge gap, in which secondary electron effects and photon processes at the electrodes must be considered, here the authors treat the case of an electrodeless rf discharge or a laser photoresonant plasma. The analysis is based on the balance between the rates of electron generation and recombination in the plasma. The fluctuation kinetics for ionization of atoms in the hot plasma may also play an important role when the electron temperature changes abruptly, as occurs during adiabatic pinching of the plasma or during electron cyclotron heating

  6. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  8. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  9. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  10. Number projected statistics and the pairing correlations at high excitation energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esebbag, C.; Egido, J.L.

    1993-01-01

    We analyze the use of particle-number projected statistics (PNPS) as an effective way to include the quantum and statistical fluctuations, associated with the pairing degree of freedom, left out in finite-temperature mean-field theories. As a numerical application the exact-soluble degenerate model is worked out. In particular, we find that the sharp temperature-induced superfluid-normal phase transition, predicted in the mean-field approximations, is washed out in the PNPS. Some approximations as well as the Landau prescription to include statistical fluctuations are also discussed. We find that the Landau prescription provides a reasonable approximation to the PNPS. (orig.)

  11. Statistical and dynamical aspects of intermediate energy nuclear collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghetti, R.

    1997-01-01

    Studies of intermediate energy heavy ion reactions have revealed that the probability of emitting n-fragments is reducible to the probability of emitting a single fragment through the binomial distribution. The resulting one-fragment probability shows a dependence on the thermal energy that is characteristic of statistical decay. Similarly, the charge distributions associated with n-fragment emission are reducible to the one-fragment charge distribution, and thermal scaling is observed. The reducibility equation for the n-fragment charge distribution contains a quantity with a value that starts from zero, at low transverse energies, and saturates at high transverse energies. This evolution may signal a transition from a coexistence phase to a vapour phase. In the search for a signal of liquid-gas phase transition, the appearance of intermittency is reconsidered. Percolation calculations, as well as data analysis, indicate that an intermittent-like signal appears from classes of events that do not coincide with the critical one. 232 refs

  12. Statistical and dynamical aspects of intermediate energy nuclear collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghetti, R.

    1997-01-01

    Studies of intermediate energy heavy ion reactions have revealed that the probability of emitting n-fragments is reducible to the probability of emitting a single fragment through the binomial distribution. The resulting one-fragment probability shows a dependence on the thermal energy that is characteristic of statistical decay. Similarly, the charge distributions associated with n-fragment emission are reducible to the one-fragment charge distribution, and thermal scaling is observed. The reducibility equation for the n-fragment charge distribution contains a quantity with a value that starts from zero, at low transverse energies, and saturates at high transverse energies. This evolution may signal a transition from a coexistence phase to a vapour phase. In the search for a signal of liquid-gas phase transition, the appearance of intermittency is reconsidered. Percolation calculations, as well as data analysis, indicate that an intermittent-like signal appears from classes of events that do not coincide with the critical one. 232 refs.

  13. Multimedia Thermofluid Dynamics, an Undergraduate Education Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settles, G. S.; Dreibelbis, L. J.; Miller, J. D.; Smith, B. P.

    2002-11-01

    New multimedia materials are being developed for undergraduate instruction in thermofluid dynamics (e.g. convective heat transfer, thermodynamics, and gas dynamics), with strong emphasis on experimental and optical flow visualization. Since textbooks often show only simple line diagrams, our emphasis is on real flow images as in Van Dyke's classic "Album of Fluid Motion." Here, however, digital video clips illustrate the pertinent phenomena in motion, with voice-over explanations and occasional musical accompaniment. Beyond that, no attempt is made to duplicate traditional textbook material, but rather to provide a visual "window" into the laboratory experience. The results will be produced and distributed in DVD form for instructors and students as a visual supplement to the standard textbooks on these topics. The suitability of such materials for national dissemination has already been demonstrated. This approach is believed to be especially important for small and minority universities that sometimes lack laboratory facilities. Several examples will be shown, including transitional flow, hydraulic jumps, nucleate boiling, convective heat transfer, and supersonic flow. (Supported by NSF DUE Grant.)

  14. Do You Need to See It to Believe It? Let's See Statistics and Geometry Dynamically Together!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, José Alexandre; Roca, Assumpta Estrada; Nascimento, Maria Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Statistical graphs, measures of central tendency and measures of spread are key concepts in the statistics curriculum, so we present here a dynamic method (software) that may be used in the classroom. In this work we begin with an introductory approach. This is done to emphasize the importance of stimulating the visualization of statistical…

  15. Statistical analysis of rockfall volume distributions: Implications for rockfall dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussauge, Carine; Grasso, Jean-Robert; Helmstetter, AgnèS.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the volume distribution of natural rockfalls on different geological settings (i.e., calcareous cliffs in the French Alps, Grenoble area, and granite Yosemite cliffs, California Sierra) and different volume ranges (i.e., regional and worldwide catalogs). Contrary to previous studies that included several types of landslides, we restrict our analysis to rockfall sources which originated on subvertical cliffs. For the three data sets, we find that the rockfall volumes follow a power law distribution with a similar exponent value, within error bars. This power law distribution was also proposed for rockfall volumes that occurred along road cuts. All these results argue for a recurrent power law distribution of rockfall volumes on subvertical cliffs, for a large range of rockfall sizes (102-1010 m3), regardless of the geological settings and of the preexisting geometry of fracture patterns that are drastically different on the three studied areas. The power law distribution for rockfall volumes could emerge from two types of processes. First, the observed power law distribution of rockfall volumes is similar to the one reported for both fragmentation experiments and fragmentation models. This argues for the geometry of rock mass fragment sizes to possibly control the rockfall volumes. This way neither cascade nor avalanche processes would influence the rockfall volume distribution. Second, without any requirement of scale-invariant quenched heterogeneity patterns, the rock mass dynamics can arise from avalanche processes driven by fluctuations of the rock mass properties, e.g., cohesion or friction angle. This model may also explain the power law distribution reported for landslides involving unconsolidated materials. We find that the exponent values of rockfall volume on subvertical cliffs, 0.5 ± 0.2, is significantly smaller than the 1.2 ± 0.3 value reported for mixed landslide types. This change of exponents can be driven by the material strength, which

  16. Online Project Management for Dynamic e-Collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia RUSU

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Today's collaborative projects demand efficient and productive software application tools for the workplace that will bring remote teams together to get the work done. Dynamic e-collaboration is a necessity for virtual relations and business agreements. It depends on two distinct factors: trust and need. This paper presents a way to manage remote teams using a web application developed with ColMap model of project management in an IT company. The information exposed and shared applications with partners in collaborative projects are based on RBAC. Group collaboration and management software has been proven to successfully manage and coordinate projects.

  17. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  18. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  19. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  20. Project T.E.A.M. (Technical Education Advancement Modules). Introduction to Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billings, Paul H.

    This instructional guide, one of a series developed by the Technical Education Advancement Modules (TEAM) project, is a 6-hour introductory module on statistical process control (SPC), designed to develop competencies in the following skill areas: (1) identification of the three classes of SPC use; (2) understanding a process and how it works; (3)…

  1. Project T.E.A.M. (Technical Education Advancement Modules). Advanced Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Dale

    This instructional guide, one of a series developed by the Technical Education Advancement Modules (TEAM) project, is a 20-hour advanced statistical process control (SPC) and quality improvement course designed to develop the following competencies: (1) understanding quality systems; (2) knowing the process; (3) solving quality problems; and (4)…

  2. The Effect of Project-Based Learning on Students' Statistical Literacy Levels for Data Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent

    2015-01-01

    The point of this study is to define the effect of project-based learning approach on 8th Grade secondary-school students' statistical literacy levels for data representation. To achieve this goal, a test which consists of 12 open-ended questions in accordance with the views of experts was developed. Seventy 8th grade secondary-school students, 35…

  3. Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

    2016-04-01

    the Alfred Wegener Institute a purely statistical scheme to generate streamflow forecasts for several months ahead. Instead of directly using teleconnection indices (e.g. NAO, AO) the idea is to identify regions with stable teleconnections between different global climate information (e.g. sea surface temperature, geopotential height etc.) and streamflow at different gauges relevant for inland waterway transport. So-called stability (correlation) maps are generated showing regions where streamflow and climate variable from previous months are significantly correlated in a 21 (31) years moving window. Finally, the optimal forecast model is established based on a multiple regression analysis of the stable predictors. We will present current results of the aforementioned approaches with focus on the River Rhine (being one of the world's most frequented waterways and the backbone of the European inland waterway network) and the Elbe River. Overall, our analysis reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of the low flows at monthly and seasonal time scales, a result that may be useful to water resources management. Given that all predictors used in the models are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used operationally to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming low flows.

  4. Formulation of state projected centroid molecular dynamics: Microcanonical ensemble and connection to the Wigner distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Lindsay; Hernández de la Peña, Lisandro; Roy, Pierre-Nicholas

    2017-06-01

    A derivation of quantum statistical mechanics based on the concept of a Feynman path centroid is presented for the case of generalized density operators using the projected density operator formalism of Blinov and Roy [J. Chem. Phys. 115, 7822-7831 (2001)]. The resulting centroid densities, centroid symbols, and centroid correlation functions are formulated and analyzed in the context of the canonical equilibrium picture of Jang and Voth [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 2357-2370 (1999)]. The case where the density operator projects onto a particular energy eigenstate of the system is discussed, and it is shown that one can extract microcanonical dynamical information from double Kubo transformed correlation functions. It is also shown that the proposed projection operator approach can be used to formally connect the centroid and Wigner phase-space distributions in the zero reciprocal temperature β limit. A Centroid Molecular Dynamics (CMD) approximation to the state-projected exact quantum dynamics is proposed and proven to be exact in the harmonic limit. The state projected CMD method is also tested numerically for a quartic oscillator and a double-well potential and found to be more accurate than canonical CMD. In the case of a ground state projection, this method can resolve tunnelling splittings of the double well problem in the higher barrier regime where canonical CMD fails. Finally, the state-projected CMD framework is cast in a path integral form.

  5. Formulation of state projected centroid molecular dynamics: Microcanonical ensemble and connection to the Wigner distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Lindsay; Hernández de la Peña, Lisandro; Roy, Pierre-Nicholas

    2017-06-07

    A derivation of quantum statistical mechanics based on the concept of a Feynman path centroid is presented for the case of generalized density operators using the projected density operator formalism of Blinov and Roy [J. Chem. Phys. 115, 7822-7831 (2001)]. The resulting centroid densities, centroid symbols, and centroid correlation functions are formulated and analyzed in the context of the canonical equilibrium picture of Jang and Voth [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 2357-2370 (1999)]. The case where the density operator projects onto a particular energy eigenstate of the system is discussed, and it is shown that one can extract microcanonical dynamical information from double Kubo transformed correlation functions. It is also shown that the proposed projection operator approach can be used to formally connect the centroid and Wigner phase-space distributions in the zero reciprocal temperature β limit. A Centroid Molecular Dynamics (CMD) approximation to the state-projected exact quantum dynamics is proposed and proven to be exact in the harmonic limit. The state projected CMD method is also tested numerically for a quartic oscillator and a double-well potential and found to be more accurate than canonical CMD. In the case of a ground state projection, this method can resolve tunnelling splittings of the double well problem in the higher barrier regime where canonical CMD fails. Finally, the state-projected CMD framework is cast in a path integral form.

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

  7. The GenABEL Project for statistical genomics [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lennart C. Karssen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of free/libre open source software is usually done by a community of people with an interest in the tool. For scientific software, however, this is less often the case. Most scientific software is written by only a few authors, often a student working on a thesis. Once the paper describing the tool has been published, the tool is no longer developed further and is left to its own device. Here we describe the broad, multidisciplinary community we formed around a set of tools for statistical genomics. The GenABEL project for statistical omics actively promotes open interdisciplinary development of statistical methodology and its implementation in efficient and user-friendly software under an open source licence. The software tools developed withing the project collectively make up the GenABEL suite, which currently consists of eleven tools. The open framework of the project actively encourages involvement of the community in all stages, from formulation of methodological ideas to application of software to specific data sets. A web forum is used to channel user questions and discussions, further promoting the use of the GenABEL suite. Developer discussions take place on a dedicated mailing list, and development is further supported by robust development practices including use of public version control, code review and continuous integration. Use of this open science model attracts contributions from users and developers outside the “core team”, facilitating agile statistical omics methodology development and fast dissemination.

  8. Statistical CT noise reduction with multiscale decomposition and penalized weighted least squares in the projection domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Shaojie; Tang Xiangyang

    2012-01-01

    Purposes: The suppression of noise in x-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging is of clinical relevance for diagnostic image quality and the potential for radiation dose saving. Toward this purpose, statistical noise reduction methods in either the image or projection domain have been proposed, which employ a multiscale decomposition to enhance the performance of noise suppression while maintaining image sharpness. Recognizing the advantages of noise suppression in the projection domain, the authors propose a projection domain multiscale penalized weighted least squares (PWLS) method, in which the angular sampling rate is explicitly taken into consideration to account for the possible variation of interview sampling rate in advanced clinical or preclinical applications. Methods: The projection domain multiscale PWLS method is derived by converting an isotropic diffusion partial differential equation in the image domain into the projection domain, wherein a multiscale decomposition is carried out. With adoption of the Markov random field or soft thresholding objective function, the projection domain multiscale PWLS method deals with noise at each scale. To compensate for the degradation in image sharpness caused by the projection domain multiscale PWLS method, an edge enhancement is carried out following the noise reduction. The performance of the proposed method is experimentally evaluated and verified using the projection data simulated by computer and acquired by a CT scanner. Results: The preliminary results show that the proposed projection domain multiscale PWLS method outperforms the projection domain single-scale PWLS method and the image domain multiscale anisotropic diffusion method in noise reduction. In addition, the proposed method can preserve image sharpness very well while the occurrence of “salt-and-pepper” noise and mosaic artifacts can be avoided. Conclusions: Since the interview sampling rate is taken into account in the projection domain

  9. Mathematics authentic assessment on statistics learning: the case for student mini projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauziah, D.; Mardiyana; Saputro, D. R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Mathematics authentic assessment is a form of meaningful measurement of student learning outcomes for the sphere of attitude, skill and knowledge in mathematics. The construction of attitude, skill and knowledge achieved through the fulfilment of tasks which involve active and creative role of the students. One type of authentic assessment is student mini projects, started from planning, data collecting, organizing, processing, analysing and presenting the data. The purpose of this research is to learn the process of using authentic assessments on statistics learning which is conducted by teachers and to discuss specifically the use of mini projects to improving students’ learning in the school of Surakarta. This research is an action research, where the data collected through the results of the assessments rubric of student mini projects. The result of data analysis shows that the average score of rubric of student mini projects result is 82 with 96% classical completeness. This study shows that the application of authentic assessment can improve students’ mathematics learning outcomes. Findings showed that teachers and students participate actively during teaching and learning process, both inside and outside of the school. Student mini projects also provide opportunities to interact with other people in the real context while collecting information and giving presentation to the community. Additionally, students are able to exceed more on the process of statistics learning using authentic assessment.

  10. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  11. Statistical properties of antisymmetrized molecular dynamics for non-nucleon-emission and nucleon-emission processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, A.; Horiuchi, H.

    1996-01-01

    Statistical properties of antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD) are classical in the case of nucleon-emission processes, while they are quantum mechanical for the processes without nucleon emission. In order to understand this situation, we first clarify that there coexist mutually opposite two statistics in the AMD framework: One is the classical statistics of the motion of wave packet centroids and the other is the quantum statistics of the motion of wave packets which is described by the AMD wave function. We prove the classical statistics of wave packet centroids by using the framework of the microcanonical ensemble of the nuclear system with a realistic effective two-nucleon interaction. We show that the relation between the classical statistics of wave packet centroids and the quantum statistics of wave packets can be obtained by taking into account the effects of the wave packet spread. This relation clarifies how the quantum statistics of wave packets emerges from the classical statistics of wave packet centroids. It is emphasized that the temperature of the classical statistics of wave packet centroids is different from the temperature of the quantum statistics of wave packets. We then explain that the statistical properties of AMD for nucleon-emission processes are classical because nucleon-emission processes in AMD are described by the motion of wave packet centroids. We further show that when we improve the description of the nucleon-emission process so as to take into account the momentum fluctuation due to the wave packet spread, the AMD statistical properties for nucleon-emission processes change drastically into quantum statistics. Our study of nucleon-emission processes can be conversely regarded as giving another kind of proof of the fact that the statistics of wave packets is quantum mechanical while that of wave packet centroids is classical. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  12. Dynamical and statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in a Mediterranean area

    KAUST Repository

    Pizzigalli, Claudia

    2012-03-28

    In this paper we present and discuss a comparison between statistical and regional climate modeling techniques for downscaling GCM prediction . The comparison is carried out over the “Capitanata” region, an area of agricultural interest in south-eastern Italy, for current (1961-1990) and future (2071–2100) climate. The statistical model is based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), associated with a data pre-filtering obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), whereas the Regional Climate Model REGCM3 was used for dynamical downscaling. Downscaling techniques were applied to estimate rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and average number of consecutive wet and dry days. Both methods have comparable skills in estimating stations data. They show good results for spring, the most important season for agriculture. Both statistical and dynamical models reproduce the statistical properties of precipitation well, the crucial variable for the growth of crops.

  13. Statistics and Dynamics in the Large-scale Structure of the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsubara, Takahiko

    2006-01-01

    In cosmology, observations and theories are related to each other by statistics in most cases. Especially, statistical methods play central roles in analyzing fluctuations in the universe, which are seeds of the present structure of the universe. The confrontation of the statistics and dynamics is one of the key methods to unveil the structure and evolution of the universe. I will review some of the major statistical methods in cosmology, in connection with linear and nonlinear dynamics of the large-scale structure of the universe. The present status of analyses of the observational data such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the future prospects to constrain the nature of exotic components of the universe such as the dark energy will be presented

  14. Connection between perturbation theory, projection-operator techniques, and statistical linearization for nonlinear systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budgor, A.B.; West, B.J.

    1978-01-01

    We employ the equivalence between Zwanzig's projection-operator formalism and perturbation theory to demonstrate that the approximate-solution technique of statistical linearization for nonlinear stochastic differential equations corresponds to the lowest-order β truncation in both the consolidated perturbation expansions and in the ''mass operator'' of a renormalized Green's function equation. Other consolidated equations can be obtained by selectively modifying this mass operator. We particularize the results of this paper to the Duffing anharmonic oscillator equation

  15. Statistical analysis of real-time, enviromental radon monitoring results at the Fernald Enviromental Management Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Ning; Spitz, H.B.; Tomezak, L.

    1996-01-01

    A comprehensive real-time, environmental radon monitoring program is being conducted at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, where a large quantity of radium-bearing residues have been stored in two covered earth-bermed silos. Statistical analyses was conducted to determine what impact radon emitted by the radium bearing materials contained in the silos has on the ambient radon concentration at the Fernald Environmental Management Project site. The distribution that best describes the outdoor radon monitoring data was determined before statistical analyses were conducted. Random effects associated with the selection of radon monitoring locations were accommodated by using nested and nested factorial classification models. The Project site was divided into four general areas according to their characteristics and functions: (1) the silo area, where the radium-bearing waste is stored; (2) the production/administration area; (3) the perimeter area, or fence-line, of the Fernald Environmental Management Project site; and (4) a background area, located approximately 13 km from the Fernald Environmental Management Project site, representing the naturally-occurring radon concentration. A total of 15 continuous, hourly readout radon monitors were installed to measure the outdoor radon concentration. Measurement results from each individual monitor were found to be log-normally distributed. A series of contrast tests, which take random effects into account, were performed to compare the radon concentration between different areas of the site. These comparisons demonstrate that the radon concentrations in the production/administration area and the perimeter area are statistically equal to the natural background, whereas the silo area is significantly higher than background. The study also showed that the radon concentration in the silo area was significantly reduced after a sealant barrier was applied to the contents of the silos. 10 refs., 6 figs., 8 tabs

  16. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  17. Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

    2005-06-01

    Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

  18. Steam Generator Group Project. Progress report on data acquisition/statistical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.; Buchanan, J.A.; McIntyre, J.M.; Hof, P.J.; Ercanbrack, S.S.

    1984-01-01

    A major task of the Steam Generator Group Project (SGGP) is to establish the reliability of the eddy current inservice inspections of PWR steam generator tubing, by comparing the eddy current data to the actual physical condition of the tubes via destructive analyses. This report describes the plans for the computer systems needed to acquire, store and analyze the diverse data to be collected during the project. The real-time acquisition of the baseline eddy current inspection data will be handled using a specially designed data acquisition computer system based on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-11/44. The data will be archived in digital form for use after the project is completed. Data base management and statistical analyses will be done on a DEC VAX-11/780. Color graphics will be heavily used to summarize the data and the results of the analyses. The report describes the data that will be taken during the project and the statistical methods that will be used to analyze the data. 7 figures, 2 tables

  19. Mathematical Representation Ability by Using Project Based Learning on the Topic of Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widakdo, W. A.

    2017-09-01

    Seeing the importance of the role of mathematics in everyday life, mastery of the subject areas of mathematics is a must. Representation ability is one of the fundamental ability that used in mathematics to make connection between abstract idea with logical thinking to understanding mathematics. Researcher see the lack of mathematical representation and try to find alternative solution to dolve it by using project based learning. This research use literature study from some books and articles in journals to see the importance of mathematical representation abiliy in mathemtics learning and how project based learning able to increase this mathematical representation ability on the topic of Statistics. The indicators for mathematical representation ability in this research classifies namely visual representation (picture, diagram, graph, or table); symbolize representation (mathematical statement. Mathematical notation, numerical/algebra symbol) and verbal representation (written text). This article explain about why project based learning able to influence student’s mathematical representation by using some theories in cognitive psychology, also showing the example of project based learning that able to use in teaching statistics, one of mathematics topic that very useful to analyze data.

  20. Studying Student Benefits of Assigning a Service-Learning Project Compared to a Traditional Final Project in a Business Statistics Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Amy L.; Dostilio, Lina

    2008-01-01

    The present study addresses the efficacy of using service-learning methods to meet the GAISE guidelines (http://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/GAISECollege.htm) in a second business statistics course and further explores potential advantages of assigning a service-learning (SL) project as compared to the traditional statistics project assignment.…

  1. Statistically accurate low-order models for uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J

    2013-08-20

    A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra.

  2. Comparative validation of statistical and dynamical downscaling models on a dense grid in central Europe: temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan; Mikšovský, J.; Štěpánek, P.; Belda, M.; Farda, A.; Chládová, Zuzana; Pišoft, P.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, 3-4 (2015), s. 533-553 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/2405 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 37005 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : statistical downscaling models * regional climate models * central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.433, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/ article /10.1007%2Fs00704-014-1190-3

  3. Vortex dynamics and Lagrangian statistics in a model for active turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Martin; Wilczek, Michael

    2018-02-14

    Cellular suspensions such as dense bacterial flows exhibit a turbulence-like phase under certain conditions. We study this phenomenon of "active turbulence" statistically by using numerical tools. Following Wensink et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109, 14308 (2012)), we model active turbulence by means of a generalized Navier-Stokes equation. Two-point velocity statistics of active turbulence, both in the Eulerian and the Lagrangian frame, is explored. We characterize the scale-dependent features of two-point statistics in this system. Furthermore, we extend this statistical study with measurements of vortex dynamics in this system. Our observations suggest that the large-scale statistics of active turbulence is close to Gaussian with sub-Gaussian tails.

  4. The CASE Project: Evaluation of Case-Based Approaches to Learning and Teaching in Statistics Service Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee

    2017-01-01

    The CASE project (Case-based Approaches to Statistics Education; see www.mas.ncl.ac.uk/~nlf8/innovation) was established to investigate how the use of real-life, discipline-specific case study material in Statistics service courses could improve student engagement, motivation, and confidence. Ultimately, the project aims to promote deep learning…

  5. Statistical dynamic imaging of RI-labeled tracer from list-mode PET data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanimoto, Michiaki; Kuroda, Yoshihiro; Oshiro, Osamu; Watabe, Hiroshi; Kuroda, Tomohiro

    2009-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) can be used in physiological analysis to illustrate physiological states by visualizing the accumulation of radioisotope (RI)-labeled tracer in specific organs or tissues. PET obtains spatio-temporal statistics in the form of list-mode data. However, conventional imaging techniques, which sum up list-mode data over a given time period, cannot depict detailed temporal dynamics of the RI-labeled tracer. In this study, a spatio-temporal analysis approach was employed to visualize the temporal flow dynamics of RI-labeled tracer from the obtained list-mode data. Experiments to assess the visualization of simulated RI-labeled tracer dynamics as well as RI-labeled tracer dynamics in a vascular phantom showed that the proposed method successfully depicted detailed temporal flow dynamics that could not be visualized using conventional methods. (author)

  6. Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

  7. Statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazoyer, B.M.; Huesman, R.H.; Budinger, T.F.; Knittel, B.L.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past years a major focus of research in physiologic studies employing tracers has been the computer implementation of mathematical methods of kinetic modeling for extracting the desired physiological parameters from tomographically derived data. A study is reported of factors that affect the statistical properties of compartmental model parameters extracted from dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) experiments

  8. Computer architecture evaluation for structural dynamics computations: Project summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standley, Hilda M.

    1989-01-01

    The intent of the proposed effort is the examination of the impact of the elements of parallel architectures on the performance realized in a parallel computation. To this end, three major projects are developed: a language for the expression of high level parallelism, a statistical technique for the synthesis of multicomputer interconnection networks based upon performance prediction, and a queueing model for the analysis of shared memory hierarchies.

  9. The effect of project-based learning on students' statistical literacy levels for data representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koparan, Timur; Güven, Bülent

    2015-07-01

    The point of this study is to define the effect of project-based learning approach on 8th Grade secondary-school students' statistical literacy levels for data representation. To achieve this goal, a test which consists of 12 open-ended questions in accordance with the views of experts was developed. Seventy 8th grade secondary-school students, 35 in the experimental group and 35 in the control group, took this test twice, one before the application and one after the application. All the raw scores were turned into linear points by using the Winsteps 3.72 modelling program that makes the Rasch analysis and t-tests, and an ANCOVA analysis was carried out with the linear points. Depending on the findings, it was concluded that the project-based learning approach increases students' level of statistical literacy for data representation. Students' levels of statistical literacy before and after the application were shown through the obtained person-item maps.

  10. Statistical Projections for Multi-resolution, Multi-dimensional Visual Data Exploration and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Hoa T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Stone, Daithi [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bethel, E. Wes [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-01

    An ongoing challenge in visual exploration and analysis of large, multi-dimensional datasets is how to present useful, concise information to a user for some specific visualization tasks. Typical approaches to this problem have proposed either reduced-resolution versions of data, or projections of data, or both. These approaches still have some limitations such as consuming high computation or suffering from errors. In this work, we explore the use of a statistical metric as the basis for both projections and reduced-resolution versions of data, with a particular focus on preserving one key trait in data, namely variation. We use two different case studies to explore this idea, one that uses a synthetic dataset, and another that uses a large ensemble collection produced by an atmospheric modeling code to study long-term changes in global precipitation. The primary findings of our work are that in terms of preserving the variation signal inherent in data, that using a statistical measure more faithfully preserves this key characteristic across both multi-dimensional projections and multi-resolution representations than a methodology based upon averaging.

  11. Group dynamics for the acquisition of competences in Project Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taguas, E. V.; Aguilar, M. C.; Castillo, C.; Polo, M. J.; Pérez, R.

    2012-04-01

    The Bologna Process promotes European citizens' employability from teaching fields in the University which implies the design of activities addressed to the development of skills for the labor market and engagement of employers. This work has been conceived for improving the formation of Engineering Project Management through group dynamics focused on: 1) the use of the creativity for solving problems; 2) promoting leadership capacities and social skills in multidisciplinary/multicultural work groups; 3) the ethical, social and environmental compromise; 4) the continuous learning. Different types of activities were designed: short activities of 15-30 minutes where fragments of books or songs are presented and discussed and long activities (2 h) where groups of students take different roles for solving common problems and situations within the Engineering Projects context. An electronic book with the content of the dynamics and the material for the students has been carried out. A sample of 20 students of Electronic Engineering degree which had participated at least in two dynamics, evaluated the utility for improving their formation in Engineering Project Management with a mark of 8.2 (scale 0-10, standard deviation equal to 0.9). On the other hand, the teachers observed how this type of work, promotes the interdisciplinary training and the acquisition of social skills, usually not-included in the objectives of the subjects.

  12. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Song, S. G.

    2013-12-24

    Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.

  13. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  14. Thermo-dynamical contours of electronic-vibrational spectra simulated using the statistical quantum-mechanical methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pomogaev, Vladimir; Pomogaeva, Anna; Avramov, Pavel

    2011-01-01

    Three polycyclic organic molecules in various solvents focused on thermo-dynamical aspects were theoretically investigated using the recently developed statistical quantum mechanical/classical molecular dynamics method for simulating electronic-vibrational spectra. The absorption bands of estradiol...

  15. Statistical Analysis of the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) Field Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekness, Jamie Lynn

    The North Dakota farming industry brings in more than $4.1 billion annually in cash receipts. Unfortunately, agriculture sales vary significantly from year to year, which is due in large part to weather events such as hail storms and droughts. One method to mitigate drought is to use hygroscopic seeding to increase the precipitation efficiency of clouds. The North Dakota Atmospheric Research Board (NDARB) sponsored the Polarimetric Cloud Analysis and Seeding Test (POLCAST) research project to determine the effectiveness of hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota. The POLCAST field projects obtained airborne and radar observations, while conducting randomized cloud seeding. The Thunderstorm Identification Tracking and Nowcasting (TITAN) program is used to analyze radar data (33 usable cases) in determining differences in the duration of the storm, rain rate and total rain amount between seeded and non-seeded clouds. The single ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases is 1.56 (0.28 mm/0.18 mm) or 56% increase for the average hourly rainfall during the first 60 minutes after target selection. A seeding effect is indicated with the lifetime of the storms increasing by 41 % between seeded and non-seeded clouds for the first 60 minutes past seeding decision. A double ratio statistic, a comparison of radar derived rain amount of the last 40 minutes of a case (seed/non-seed), compared to the first 20 minutes (seed/non-seed), is used to account for the natural variability of the cloud system and gives a double ratio of 1.85. The Mann-Whitney test on the double ratio of seeded to non-seeded cases (33 cases) gives a significance (p-value) of 0.063. Bootstrapping analysis of the POLCAST set indicates that 50 cases would provide statistically significant results based on the Mann-Whitney test of the double ratio. All the statistical analysis conducted on the POLCAST data set show that hygroscopic seeding in North Dakota does increase precipitation. While an additional POLCAST field

  16. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Lawrence, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171km2 in size...... catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme...... flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where...

  17. Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yan

    North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial

  18. The effect on prospective teachers of the learning environment supported by dynamic statistics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koparan, Timur

    2016-02-01

    In this study, the effect on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teachers is examined. With this aim ahead, achievement test, attitude scale for statistics and interviews were used as data collection tools. The achievement test comprises 8 problems based on statistical data, and the attitude scale comprises 13 Likert-type items. The study was carried out in 2014-2015 academic year fall semester at a university in Turkey. The study, which employed the pre-test-post-test control group design of quasi-experimental research method, was carried out on a group of 80 prospective teachers, 40 in the control group and 40 in the experimental group. Both groups had four-hour classes about descriptive statistics. The classes with the control group were carried out through traditional methods while dynamic statistics software was used in the experimental group. Five prospective teachers from the experimental group were interviewed clinically after the application for a deeper examination of their views about application. Qualitative data gained are presented under various themes. At the end of the study, it was found that there is a significant difference in favour of the experimental group in terms of achievement and attitudes, the prospective teachers have affirmative approach to the use of dynamic software and see it as an effective tool to enrich maths classes. In accordance with the findings of the study, it is suggested that dynamic software, which offers unique opportunities, be used in classes by teachers and students.

  19. THE MILKY WAY PROJECT: A STATISTICAL STUDY OF MASSIVE STAR FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH INFRARED BUBBLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kendrew, S.; Robitaille, T. P. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Simpson, R.; Lintott, C. J. [Department of Astrophysics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Bressert, E. [School of Physics, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter EX4 4QL (United Kingdom); Povich, M. S. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, 525 Davey Laboratory, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Sherman, R. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 S. Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Schawinski, K. [Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Yale University, P.O. Box 208121, New Haven, CT 06520 (United States); Wolf-Chase, G., E-mail: kendrew@mpia.de [Astronomy Department, Adler Planetarium, 1300 S. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605 (United States)

    2012-08-10

    The Milky Way Project citizen science initiative recently increased the number of known infrared bubbles in the inner Galactic plane by an order of magnitude compared to previous studies. We present a detailed statistical analysis of this data set with the Red MSX Source (RMS) catalog of massive young stellar sources to investigate the association of these bubbles with massive star formation. We particularly address the question of massive triggered star formation near infrared bubbles. We find a strong positional correlation of massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) and H II regions with Milky Way Project bubbles at separations of <2 bubble radii. As bubble sizes increase, a statistically significant overdensity of massive young sources emerges in the region of the bubble rims, possibly indicating the occurrence of triggered star formation. Based on numbers of bubble-associated RMS sources, we find that 67% {+-} 3% of MYSOs and (ultra-)compact H II regions appear to be associated with a bubble. We estimate that approximately 22% {+-} 2% of massive young stars may have formed as a result of feedback from expanding H II regions. Using MYSO-bubble correlations, we serendipitously recovered the location of the recently discovered massive cluster Mercer 81, suggesting the potential of such analyses for discovery of heavily extincted distant clusters.

  20. THE MILKY WAY PROJECT: A STATISTICAL STUDY OF MASSIVE STAR FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH INFRARED BUBBLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kendrew, S.; Robitaille, T. P.; Simpson, R.; Lintott, C. J.; Bressert, E.; Povich, M. S.; Sherman, R.; Schawinski, K.; Wolf-Chase, G.

    2012-01-01

    The Milky Way Project citizen science initiative recently increased the number of known infrared bubbles in the inner Galactic plane by an order of magnitude compared to previous studies. We present a detailed statistical analysis of this data set with the Red MSX Source (RMS) catalog of massive young stellar sources to investigate the association of these bubbles with massive star formation. We particularly address the question of massive triggered star formation near infrared bubbles. We find a strong positional correlation of massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) and H II regions with Milky Way Project bubbles at separations of <2 bubble radii. As bubble sizes increase, a statistically significant overdensity of massive young sources emerges in the region of the bubble rims, possibly indicating the occurrence of triggered star formation. Based on numbers of bubble-associated RMS sources, we find that 67% ± 3% of MYSOs and (ultra-)compact H II regions appear to be associated with a bubble. We estimate that approximately 22% ± 2% of massive young stars may have formed as a result of feedback from expanding H II regions. Using MYSO-bubble correlations, we serendipitously recovered the location of the recently discovered massive cluster Mercer 81, suggesting the potential of such analyses for discovery of heavily extincted distant clusters.

  1. a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.

    As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.

  2. The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlos, George

    2015-04-01

    As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time

  3. Dynamical and statistical aspects in nucleus-nucleus collisions around the Fermi energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamain, B.; Bocage, F.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R. [Caen Univ., 14 (France). Lab. de Physique Corpusculaire; Assenard, M. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 44 - Nantes (France). Lab. de Physique Subatomique et des Technologies Associees; Auger, G.; Benlliure, J. [Grand Accelerateur National d`Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); Bacri, C.O.; Borderie, B. [Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France). Inst. de Physique Nucleaire; Bisquer, E. [Lyon-1 Univ., 69 - Villeurbanne (France). Inst. de Physique Nucleaire] [and others

    1997-12-31

    Nucleus-nucleus collisions at low incident energy are mainly governed by statistical dissipative processes, fusion and deep inelastic reactions being the most important ones. Conversely, in the relativistic energy regime, dynamical effects play a dominant role and one should apply a participant-spectator picture in order to understand the data. In between, the intermediate energy region is a transition one in which it is necessary to disentangle dynamics from statistical effects. Moreover, the Fermi energy region corresponds to available energies comparable with nuclear binding energies and one may except to observe phase transition effects. Experiments performed recently with 4{pi} devices have given quite new data and a much better insight into involved mechanisms and hot nuclear matter properties. INDRA data related to reaction mechanisms and multifragmentation are presented. (author) 53 refs.

  4. Dynamical and statistical aspects in nucleus-nucleus collisions around the Fermi energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamain, B.; Bocage, F.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Bacri, C.O.; Borderie, B.; Bisquer, E.

    1997-01-01

    Nucleus-nucleus collisions at low incident energy are mainly governed by statistical dissipative processes, fusion and deep inelastic reactions being the most important ones. Conversely, in the relativistic energy regime, dynamical effects play a dominant role and one should apply a participant-spectator picture in order to understand the data. In between, the intermediate energy region is a transition one in which it is necessary to disentangle dynamics from statistical effects. Moreover, the Fermi energy region corresponds to available energies comparable with nuclear binding energies and one may except to observe phase transition effects. Experiments performed recently with 4π devices have given quite new data and a much better insight into involved mechanisms and hot nuclear matter properties. INDRA data related to reaction mechanisms and multifragmentation are presented. (author)

  5. Comparison of adaptive statistical iterative and filtered back projection reconstruction techniques in brain CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Qingguo; Dewan, Sheilesh Kumar; Li, Ming; Li, Jianying; Mao, Dingbiao; Wang, Zhenglei; Hua, Yanqing

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To compare image quality and visualization of normal structures and lesions in brain computed tomography (CT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) and filtered back projection (FBP) reconstruction techniques in different X-ray tube current–time products. Materials and methods: In this IRB-approved prospective study, forty patients (nineteen men, twenty-one women; mean age 69.5 ± 11.2 years) received brain scan at different tube current–time products (300 and 200 mAs) in 64-section multi-detector CT (GE, Discovery CT750 HD). Images were reconstructed with FBP and four levels of ASIR-FBP blending. Two radiologists (please note that our hospital is renowned for its geriatric medicine department, and these two radiologists are more experienced in chronic cerebral vascular disease than in neoplastic disease, so this research did not contain cerebral tumors but as a discussion) assessed all the reconstructed images for visibility of normal structures, lesion conspicuity, image contrast and diagnostic confidence in a blinded and randomized manner. Volume CT dose index (CTDI vol ) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the image qualities at 200 mAs with 50% ASIR blending technique and 300 mAs with FBP technique (p > .05). While between the image qualities at 200 mAs with FBP and 300 mAs with FBP technique a statistically significant difference (p < .05) was found. Conclusion: ASIR provided same image quality and diagnostic ability in brain imaging with greater than 30% dose reduction compared with FBP reconstruction technique

  6. Comparison of adaptive statistical iterative and filtered back projection reconstruction techniques in brain CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Qingguo, E-mail: renqg83@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Dewan, Sheilesh Kumar, E-mail: sheilesh_d1@hotmail.com [Department of Geriatrics, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Li, Ming, E-mail: minli77@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Li, Jianying, E-mail: Jianying.Li@med.ge.com [CT Imaging Research Center, GE Healthcare China, Beijing (China); Mao, Dingbiao, E-mail: maodingbiao74@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Wang, Zhenglei, E-mail: Williswang_doc@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Radiology, Shanghai Electricity Hospital, Shanghai 200050 (China); Hua, Yanqing, E-mail: cjr.huayanqing@vip.163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China)

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: To compare image quality and visualization of normal structures and lesions in brain computed tomography (CT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) and filtered back projection (FBP) reconstruction techniques in different X-ray tube current–time products. Materials and methods: In this IRB-approved prospective study, forty patients (nineteen men, twenty-one women; mean age 69.5 ± 11.2 years) received brain scan at different tube current–time products (300 and 200 mAs) in 64-section multi-detector CT (GE, Discovery CT750 HD). Images were reconstructed with FBP and four levels of ASIR-FBP blending. Two radiologists (please note that our hospital is renowned for its geriatric medicine department, and these two radiologists are more experienced in chronic cerebral vascular disease than in neoplastic disease, so this research did not contain cerebral tumors but as a discussion) assessed all the reconstructed images for visibility of normal structures, lesion conspicuity, image contrast and diagnostic confidence in a blinded and randomized manner. Volume CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the image qualities at 200 mAs with 50% ASIR blending technique and 300 mAs with FBP technique (p > .05). While between the image qualities at 200 mAs with FBP and 300 mAs with FBP technique a statistically significant difference (p < .05) was found. Conclusion: ASIR provided same image quality and diagnostic ability in brain imaging with greater than 30% dose reduction compared with FBP reconstruction technique.

  7. A Statistical Parameter Analysis and SVM Based Fault Diagnosis Strategy for Dynamically Tuned Gyroscopes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Gyro's fault diagnosis plays a critical role in inertia navigation systems for higher reliability and precision. A new fault diagnosis strategy based on the statistical parameter analysis (SPA) and support vector machine(SVM) classification model was proposed for dynamically tuned gyroscopes (DTG). The SPA, a kind of time domain analysis approach, was introduced to compute a set of statistical parameters of vibration signal as the state features of DTG, with which the SVM model, a novel learning machine based on statistical learning theory (SLT), was applied and constructed to train and identify the working state of DTG. The experimental results verify that the proposed diagnostic strategy can simply and effectively extract the state features of DTG, and it outperforms the radial-basis function (RBF) neural network based diagnostic method and can more reliably and accurately diagnose the working state of DTG.

  8. Minimal agent based model for financial markets II. Statistical properties of the linear and multiplicative dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

  9. Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhenwei

    2017-12-01

    Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

  10. Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhenwei

    2017-12-01

    Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

  11. The non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of a simple geophysical fluid dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkley, Wim; Severijns, Camiel

    2014-05-01

    Lorenz [1] has devised a dynamical system that has proved to be very useful as a benchmark system in geophysical fluid dynamics. The system in its simplest form consists of a periodic array of variables that can be associated with an atmospheric field on a latitude circle. The system is driven by a constant forcing, is damped by linear friction and has a simple advection term that causes the model to behave chaotically if the forcing is large enough. Our aim is to predict the statistics of Lorenz' model on the basis of a given average value of its total energy - obtained from a numerical integration - and the assumption of statistical stationarity. Our method is the principle of maximum entropy [2] which in this case reads: the information entropy of the system's probability density function shall be maximal under the constraints of normalization, a given value of the average total energy and statistical stationarity. Statistical stationarity is incorporated approximately by using `stationarity constraints', i.e., by requiring that the average first and possibly higher-order time-derivatives of the energy are zero in the maximization of entropy. The analysis [3] reveals that, if the first stationarity constraint is used, the resulting probability density function rather accurately reproduces the statistics of the individual variables. If the second stationarity constraint is used as well, the correlations between the variables are also reproduced quite adequately. The method can be generalized straightforwardly and holds the promise of a viable non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of the forced-dissipative systems of geophysical fluid dynamics. [1] E.N. Lorenz, 1996: Predictability - A problem partly solved, in Proc. Seminar on Predictability (ECMWF, Reading, Berkshire, UK), Vol. 1, pp. 1-18. [2] E.T. Jaynes, 2003: Probability Theory - The Logic of Science (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). [3] W.T.M. Verkley and C.A. Severijns, 2014: The maximum entropy

  12. Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: age-size statistics and species lifetimes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kessler, D.; Suweis, S.; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 92, č. 2 (2015), 022722-1-022722-10 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/12/2613 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Neutral dynamics * environmental noise * age-size relationships * species extinction time Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 2.288, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/formentin-0452979.pdf

  13. Evaluation of excitation energy and spin in fission fragments using the statistical model, and the FIPPS project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faust, H.; Koester, U.; Kessedjian, G.; Sage, C.; Chebboubi, A.

    2013-01-01

    We review the statistical model and its application for the process of nuclear fission. The expressions for excitation energy and spin distributions for the individual fission fragments are given. We will finally emphasize the importance of measuring prompt gamma decay to further test the statistical model in nuclear fission with the FIPPS project. (authors)

  14. The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model: validation and parameter optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totz, Sonja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Petri, Stefan; Flechsig, Michael; Caesar, Levke; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Coumou, Dim

    2018-02-01

    We present and validate a set of equations for representing the atmosphere's large-scale general circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These dynamical equations have been implemented in Aeolus 1.0, which is a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) and includes radiative transfer and cloud modules (Coumou et al., 2011; Eliseev et al., 2013). The statistical dynamical approach is computationally efficient and thus enables us to perform climate simulations at multimillennia timescales, which is a prime aim of our model development. Further, this computational efficiency enables us to scan large and high-dimensional parameter space to tune the model parameters, e.g., for sensitivity studies.Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0.We optimize the dynamical core parameter values by tuning all relevant dynamical fields to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1983-2009) forcing the dynamical core with prescribed surface temperature, surface humidity and cumulus cloud fraction. We test the model's performance in reproducing the seasonal cycle and the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a simulated annealing optimization algorithm, which approximates the global minimum of a high-dimensional function.With non-tuned parameter values, the model performs reasonably in terms of its representation of zonal-mean circulation, planetary waves and storm tracks. The simulated annealing optimization improves in particular the model's representation of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm tracks as well as the Hadley circulation.The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower

  15. Comparison of adaptive statistical iterative and filtered back projection reconstruction techniques in quantifying coronary calcium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Masahiro; Kimura, Fumiko; Umezawa, Tatsuya; Watanabe, Yusuke; Ogawa, Harumi

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) has been used to reduce radiation dose in cardiac computed tomography. However, change of image parameters by ASIR as compared to filtered back projection (FBP) may influence quantification of coronary calcium. To investigate the influence of ASIR on calcium quantification in comparison to FBP. In 352 patients, CT images were reconstructed using FBP alone, FBP combined with ASIR 30%, 50%, 70%, and ASIR 100% based on the same raw data. Image noise, plaque density, Agatston scores and calcium volumes were compared among the techniques. Image noise, Agatston score, and calcium volume decreased significantly with ASIR compared to FBP (each P ASIR reduced Agatston score by 10.5% to 31.0%. In calcified plaques both of patients and a phantom, ASIR decreased maximum CT values and calcified plaque size. In comparison to FBP, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) may significantly decrease Agatston scores and calcium volumes. Copyright © 2016 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Extending the Dynamic Range of a Time Projection Chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estee, Justin; S πRIT Collaboration

    2017-09-01

    The use of Time Projection Chambers (TPCs) in intermediate heavy ion reactions faces some challenges in addressing the energy losses that range from the small energy loss of relativistic pions to the large energy loss of slow moving heavy ions. A typical trade-off can be to set the smallest desired signals to be well within the lower limits of the dynamic range of the electronics while allowing for some larger signals to saturate the electronics. With wire plane anodes, signals from readout pads further away from the track remain unsaturated and allow signals from tracks with saturated pads to be accurately recovered. We illustrate this technique using data from the SAMURAI Pion-Reconstruction and Ion-Tracker (S πRIT) TPC , which recently measured pions and light charged particles in collisions of Sn+Sn isotopes. Our method exploits knowledge of how the induced charge distribution depends on the distance from the track to smoothly extend dynamic range even when some of the pads in the track are saturated. To accommodate the analysis of slow moving heavy ions, we have extended the Bichsel energy loss distributions to handle slower moving ions as well. In this talk, I will discuss a combined approach which successfully extends the dynamic range of the TPC electronics. This work is supported by the U.S. DOE under Grant Nos. DE-SC0014530, DE-NA0002923, US NSF Grant No. PHY-1565546 and the Japan MEXT KAKENHI Grant No. 24105004.

  17. Dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging: II. Task-oriented statistical estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Nicolas A; Lodge, Martin A; Zhou, Y; Wahl, Richard L; Rahmim, Arman

    2013-10-21

    In the context of oncology, dynamic PET imaging coupled with standard graphical linear analysis has been previously employed to enable quantitative estimation of tracer kinetic parameters of physiological interest at the voxel level, thus, enabling quantitative PET parametric imaging. However, dynamic PET acquisition protocols have been confined to the limited axial field-of-view (~15-20 cm) of a single-bed position and have not been translated to the whole-body clinical imaging domain. On the contrary, standardized uptake value (SUV) PET imaging, considered as the routine approach in clinical oncology, commonly involves multi-bed acquisitions, but is performed statically, thus not allowing for dynamic tracking of the tracer distribution. Here, we pursue a transition to dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging, by presenting, within a unified framework, clinically feasible multi-bed dynamic PET acquisition protocols and parametric imaging methods. In a companion study, we presented a novel clinically feasible dynamic (4D) multi-bed PET acquisition protocol as well as the concept of whole-body PET parametric imaging employing Patlak ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate the quantitative parameters of tracer uptake rate Ki and total blood distribution volume V. In the present study, we propose an advanced hybrid linear regression framework, driven by Patlak kinetic voxel correlations, to achieve superior trade-off between contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and mean squared error (MSE) than provided by OLS for the final Ki parametric images, enabling task-based performance optimization. Overall, whether the observer's task is to detect a tumor or quantitatively assess treatment response, the proposed statistical estimation framework can be adapted to satisfy the specific task performance criteria, by adjusting the Patlak correlation-coefficient (WR) reference value. The multi-bed dynamic acquisition protocol, as optimized in the preceding companion study

  18. Dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging: II. Task-oriented statistical estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakatsanis, Nicolas A; Lodge, Martin A; Zhou, Y; Wahl, Richard L; Rahmim, Arman

    2013-01-01

    In the context of oncology, dynamic PET imaging coupled with standard graphical linear analysis has been previously employed to enable quantitative estimation of tracer kinetic parameters of physiological interest at the voxel level, thus, enabling quantitative PET parametric imaging. However, dynamic PET acquisition protocols have been confined to the limited axial field-of-view (∼15–20 cm) of a single-bed position and have not been translated to the whole-body clinical imaging domain. On the contrary, standardized uptake value (SUV) PET imaging, considered as the routine approach in clinical oncology, commonly involves multi-bed acquisitions, but is performed statically, thus not allowing for dynamic tracking of the tracer distribution. Here, we pursue a transition to dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging, by presenting, within a unified framework, clinically feasible multi-bed dynamic PET acquisition protocols and parametric imaging methods. In a companion study, we presented a novel clinically feasible dynamic (4D) multi-bed PET acquisition protocol as well as the concept of whole-body PET parametric imaging employing Patlak ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate the quantitative parameters of tracer uptake rate K i and total blood distribution volume V. In the present study, we propose an advanced hybrid linear regression framework, driven by Patlak kinetic voxel correlations, to achieve superior trade-off between contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and mean squared error (MSE) than provided by OLS for the final K i parametric images, enabling task-based performance optimization. Overall, whether the observer's task is to detect a tumor or quantitatively assess treatment response, the proposed statistical estimation framework can be adapted to satisfy the specific task performance criteria, by adjusting the Patlak correlation-coefficient (WR) reference value. The multi-bed dynamic acquisition protocol, as optimized in the preceding companion

  19. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  20. More Than Filaments and Cores: Statistical Study of Structure Formation and Dynamics in Nearby Molecular Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, How-Huan; Goodman, Alyssa

    2018-01-01

    In the past decade, multiple attempts at understanding the connection between filaments and star forming cores have been made using observations across the entire epectrum. However, the filaments and the cores are usually treated as predefined--and well-defined--entities, instead of structures that often come at different sizes, shapes, with substantially different dynamics, and inter-connected at different scales. In my dissertation, I present an array of studies using different statistical methods, including the dendrogram and the probability distribution function (PDF), of structures at different size scales within nearby molecular clouds. These structures are identified using observations of different density tracers, and where possible, in the multi-dimensional parameter space of key dynamic properties--the LSR velocity, the velocity dispersion, and the column density. The goal is to give an overview of structure formation in nearby star-forming clouds, as well as of the dynamics in these structures. I find that the overall statistical properties of a larger structure is often the summation/superposition of sub-structures within, and that there could be significant variations due to local physical processes. I also find that the star formation process within molecular clouds could in fact take place in a non-monolithic manner, connecting potentially merging and/or transient structures, at different scales.

  1. Generation and communication of dynamic maps using light projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Steffen; Schlichting, Alexander; Brenner, Claus

    2018-05-01

    Many accidents are caused by miscommunication between traffic participants. Much research is being conducted in the area of car to car and car to infrastructure communication in order to eliminate this cause of accidents. How-ever, less attention is paid to the question how the behavior of a car can be communicated to pedestrians. Especially considering automated traffic, there is a lack of communication between cars and pedestrians. In this paper, we address the question how an autonomously driving car can inform pedestrians about its intentions. Especially in case of highly automated driving, making eye contact with a driver will give no clue about his or her intensions. We developed a prototype which continuously informs pedestrians about the intentions of the vehicle by projecting visual patterns onto the ground. Furthermore, the system communicates its interpretation of the observed situation to the pedestrians to warn them or to encourage them to perform a certain action. In order to communicate adaptively, the vehicle needs to develop an understanding of the dynamics of a city to know what to expect in certain situations and what speed is appropriate. To support this, we created a dynamic map, which estimates the number of pedestrians and cyclists in a certain area, which is then used to determine how `hazardous' the area is. This dynamic map is obtained from measurement data from many time instances, in contrast to the static car navigation maps, which are prevalent today. Apart from being used for communication purposes, the dynamic map can also influence the speed of a car, be it manually or autonomously driven. Adapting the speed in hazardous areas will avoid accidents where a car drives too fast, so that neither a human nor a computer-operated system would be able to stop in time.

  2. On the structure of dynamic principal component analysis used in statistical process monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanhatalo, Erik; Kulahci, Murat; Bergquist, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    When principal component analysis (PCA) is used for statistical process monitoring it relies on the assumption that data are time independent. However, industrial data will often exhibit serial correlation. Dynamic PCA (DPCA) has been suggested as a remedy for high-dimensional and time...... for determining the number of principal components to retain. The number of retained principal components is determined by visual inspection of the serial correlation in the squared prediction error statistic, Q (SPE), together with the cumulative explained variance of the model. The methods are illustrated using...... driven method to determine the maximum number of lags in DPCA with a foundation in multivariate time series analysis. The method is based on the behavior of the eigenvalues of the lagged autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation matrices. Given a specific lag structure we also propose a method...

  3. Path integral molecular dynamics for exact quantum statistics of multi-electronic-state systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinzijian; Liu, Jian

    2018-03-14

    An exact approach to compute physical properties for general multi-electronic-state (MES) systems in thermal equilibrium is presented. The approach is extended from our recent progress on path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD), Liu et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 145, 024103 (2016)] and Zhang et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 147, 034109 (2017)], for quantum statistical mechanics when a single potential energy surface is involved. We first define an effective potential function that is numerically favorable for MES-PIMD and then derive corresponding estimators in MES-PIMD for evaluating various physical properties. Its application to several representative one-dimensional and multi-dimensional models demonstrates that MES-PIMD in principle offers a practical tool in either of the diabatic and adiabatic representations for studying exact quantum statistics of complex/large MES systems when the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, Condon approximation, and harmonic bath approximation are broken.

  4. Statistical modelling of subdiffusive dynamics in the cytoplasm of living cells: A FARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnecki, K.; Muszkieta, M.; Sikora, G.; Weron, A.

    2012-04-01

    Golding and Cox (Phys. Rev. Lett., 96 (2006) 098102) tracked the motion of individual fluorescently labelled mRNA molecules inside live E. coli cells. They found that in the set of 23 trajectories from 3 different experiments, the automatically recognized motion is subdiffusive and published an intriguing microscopy video. Here, we extract the corresponding time series from this video by image segmentation method and present its detailed statistical analysis. We find that this trajectory was not included in the data set already studied and has different statistical properties. It is best fitted by a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) process with the normal-inverse Gaussian (NIG) noise and the negative memory. In contrast to earlier studies, this shows that the fractional Brownian motion is not the best model for the dynamics documented in this video.

  5. Investigation of mosaicity of epitaxic multilayers by the statistical theory of X-ray dynamical diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ming; Mai Zhenhong; Li Jianhua; Li Chaorong; Cui Shufan

    1995-01-01

    Based on the statistical theory of X-ray dynamical diffraction for thin films, the mosaicity of three types of semiconductor epitaxic layers has been investigated by analyzing their rocking curves by the X-ray double-crystal diffraction method. It is shown that the statistical theory can provide quantitative information on the mosaicity of the epitaxic layers such as the mean size and the mean disorientation of mosaic blocks in the layers. Some misunderstandings in interpreting experimental data are cleared up by taking into account the effect of diffuse scattering. It is emphasized that attempts to obtain structural parameters of specimens from their rocking curves by means of the Takagi-Taupin equations for coherent fields only are not strictly correct since diffuse scattering causes additional changes in the tails of the rocking curves. (orig.)

  6. Science dynamics and research production indicators, indexes, statistical laws and mathematical models

    CERN Document Server

    Vitanov, Nikolay K

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with methods to evaluate scientific productivity. In the book statistical methods, deterministic and stochastic models and numerous indexes are discussed that will help the reader to understand the nonlinear science dynamics and to be able to develop or construct systems for appropriate evaluation of research productivity and management of research groups and organizations. The dynamics of science structures and systems is complex, and the evaluation of research productivity requires a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and measures. The book has three parts. The first part is devoted to mathematical models describing the importance of science for economic growth and systems for the evaluation of research organizations of different size. The second part contains descriptions and discussions of numerous indexes for the evaluation of the productivity of researchers and groups of researchers of different size (up to the comparison of research productivities of research communiti...

  7. SU-E-J-261: Statistical Analysis and Chaotic Dynamics of Respiratory Signal of Patients in BodyFix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michalski, D; Huq, M; Bednarz, G; Lalonde, R; Yang, Y; Heron, D [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To quantify respiratory signal of patients in BodyFix undergoing 4DCT scan with and without immobilization cover. Methods: 20 pairs of respiratory tracks recorded with RPM system during 4DCT scan were analyzed. Descriptive statistic was applied to selected parameters of exhale-inhale decomposition. Standardized signals were used with the delay method to build orbits in embedded space. Nonlinear behavior was tested with surrogate data. Sample entropy SE, Lempel-Ziv complexity LZC and the largest Lyapunov exponents LLE were compared. Results: Statistical tests show difference between scans for inspiration time and its variability, which is bigger for scans without cover. The same is for variability of the end of exhalation and inhalation. Other parameters fail to show the difference. For both scans respiratory signals show determinism and nonlinear stationarity. Statistical test on surrogate data reveals their nonlinearity. LLEs show signals chaotic nature and its correlation with breathing period and its embedding delay time. SE, LZC and LLE measure respiratory signal complexity. Nonlinear characteristics do not differ between scans. Conclusion: Contrary to expectation cover applied to patients in BodyFix appears to have limited effect on signal parameters. Analysis based on trajectories of delay vectors shows respiratory system nonlinear character and its sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Reproducibility of respiratory signal can be evaluated with measures of signal complexity and its predictability window. Longer respiratory period is conducive for signal reproducibility as shown by these gauges. Statistical independence of the exhale and inhale times is also supported by the magnitude of LLE. The nonlinear parameters seem more appropriate to gauge respiratory signal complexity since its deterministic chaotic nature. It contrasts with measures based on harmonic analysis that are blind for nonlinear features. Dynamics of breathing, so crucial for

  8. SU-E-J-261: Statistical Analysis and Chaotic Dynamics of Respiratory Signal of Patients in BodyFix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michalski, D; Huq, M; Bednarz, G; Lalonde, R; Yang, Y; Heron, D

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To quantify respiratory signal of patients in BodyFix undergoing 4DCT scan with and without immobilization cover. Methods: 20 pairs of respiratory tracks recorded with RPM system during 4DCT scan were analyzed. Descriptive statistic was applied to selected parameters of exhale-inhale decomposition. Standardized signals were used with the delay method to build orbits in embedded space. Nonlinear behavior was tested with surrogate data. Sample entropy SE, Lempel-Ziv complexity LZC and the largest Lyapunov exponents LLE were compared. Results: Statistical tests show difference between scans for inspiration time and its variability, which is bigger for scans without cover. The same is for variability of the end of exhalation and inhalation. Other parameters fail to show the difference. For both scans respiratory signals show determinism and nonlinear stationarity. Statistical test on surrogate data reveals their nonlinearity. LLEs show signals chaotic nature and its correlation with breathing period and its embedding delay time. SE, LZC and LLE measure respiratory signal complexity. Nonlinear characteristics do not differ between scans. Conclusion: Contrary to expectation cover applied to patients in BodyFix appears to have limited effect on signal parameters. Analysis based on trajectories of delay vectors shows respiratory system nonlinear character and its sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Reproducibility of respiratory signal can be evaluated with measures of signal complexity and its predictability window. Longer respiratory period is conducive for signal reproducibility as shown by these gauges. Statistical independence of the exhale and inhale times is also supported by the magnitude of LLE. The nonlinear parameters seem more appropriate to gauge respiratory signal complexity since its deterministic chaotic nature. It contrasts with measures based on harmonic analysis that are blind for nonlinear features. Dynamics of breathing, so crucial for

  9. Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2015-08-01

    Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O (√{N }) ] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems—age-size relationships and species extinction time—in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics.

  10. Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai

    2018-04-01

    The statistical climate downscaling model by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to a set of monthly precipitation records. The model is structured by two phases as spatial (regional) and temporal downscaling of global circulation model (GCM) scenarios. The TWF model takes into consideration the regional dependence function (RDF) for spatial structure and Markov whitening process (MWP) for temporal characteristics of the records to set projections. The impact of climate change on monthly precipitations is studied by downscaling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The main purposes are to explain the TWF statistical climate downscaling model procedures and to expose the validation tests, which are rewarded in same specifications as "very good" for all stations except one (Suhut) station in the Akarcay basin that is in the west central part of Turkey. Eventhough, the validation score is just a bit lower at the Suhut station, the results are "satisfactory." It is, therefore, possible to say that the TWF model has reasonably acceptable skill for highly accurate estimation regarding standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. Based on the validated model, precipitation predictions are generated from 2011 to 2100 by using 30-year reference observation period (1981-2010). Precipitation arithmetic average and standard deviation have less than 5% error for EH40PYC and HadCM3 SRES (A2 and B2) scenarios.

  11. Dynamic PET simulator via tomographic emission projection for kinetic modeling and parametric image studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häggström, Ida; Beattie, Bradley J; Schmidtlein, C Ross

    2016-06-01

    To develop and evaluate a fast and simple tool called dpetstep (Dynamic PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection), for dynamic PET simulations as an alternative to Monte Carlo (MC), useful for educational purposes and evaluation of the effects of the clinical environment, postprocessing choices, etc., on dynamic and parametric images. The tool was developed in matlab using both new and previously reported modules of petstep (PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection). Time activity curves are generated for each voxel of the input parametric image, whereby effects of imaging system blurring, counting noise, scatters, randoms, and attenuation are simulated for each frame. Each frame is then reconstructed into images according to the user specified method, settings, and corrections. Reconstructed images were compared to MC data, and simple Gaussian noised time activity curves (GAUSS). dpetstep was 8000 times faster than MC. Dynamic images from dpetstep had a root mean square error that was within 4% on average of that of MC images, whereas the GAUSS images were within 11%. The average bias in dpetstep and MC images was the same, while GAUSS differed by 3% points. Noise profiles in dpetstep images conformed well to MC images, confirmed visually by scatter plot histograms, and statistically by tumor region of interest histogram comparisons that showed no significant differences (p dynamic PET and parametric images, and demonstrated that it generates both images and subsequent parametric images with very similar noise properties to those of MC images, in a fraction of the time. They believe dpetstep to be very useful for generating fast, simple, and realistic results, however since it uses simple scatter and random models it may not be suitable for studies investigating these phenomena. dpetstep can be downloaded free of cost from https://github.com/CRossSchmidtlein/dPETSTEP.

  12. Signals of dynamical and statistical process from IMF-IMF correlation function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagano, E. V.; Acosta, L.; Auditore, L.; Baran, V.; Cap, T.; Cardella, G.; Colonna, M.; De Luca, S.; De Filippo, E.; Dell'Aquila, D.; Francalanza, L.; Gnoffo, B.; Lanzalone, G.; Lombardo, I.; Maiolino, C.; Martorana, N. S.; Norella, S.; Pagano, A.; Papa, M.; Piasecki, E.; Pirrone, S.; Politi, G.; Porto, F.; Quattrocchi, L.; Rizzo, F.; Rosato, E.; Russotto, P.; Siwek-Wilczyńska, K.; Trifiro, A.; Trimarchi, M.; Verde, G.; Vigilante, M.; Wilczyńsky, J.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper we briefly discuss about a novel application of the IMF-IMF correlation function to the physical case of binary massive projectile-like (PLF) splitting for dynamical and statistical breakup/fission in heavy ion collisions at Fermi energy. Theoretical simulations are also shown for comparisons with the data. These preliminary results have been obtained for the reverse kinematics reaction 124Sn + 64Ni at 35 AMeV that was studied using the forward part of CHIMERA detector. In that reaction a strong competition between a dynamical and a statistical components and its evolution with the charge asymmetry of the binary break up was already shown. In this work we show that the IMF-IMF correlation function can be used to pin down the timescale of the fragments production in binary fission-like phenomena. We also made simulations with the CoMDII model in order to compare to the experimental IMF-IMF correlation function. In future we plan to extend these studies to different reaction mechanisms and nuclear systems and to compare with different theoretical transport simulations.

  13. An Optimization Principle for Deriving Nonequilibrium Statistical Models of Hamiltonian Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Bruce

    2013-08-01

    A general method for deriving closed reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. Given a vector of resolved variables, selected to describe the macroscopic state of the system, a family of quasi-equilibrium probability densities on phase space corresponding to the resolved variables is employed as a statistical model, and the evolution of the mean resolved vector is estimated by optimizing over paths of these densities. Specifically, a cost function is constructed to quantify the lack-of-fit to the microscopic dynamics of any feasible path of densities from the statistical model; it is an ensemble-averaged, weighted, squared-norm of the residual that results from submitting the path of densities to the Liouville equation. The path that minimizes the time integral of the cost function determines the best-fit evolution of the mean resolved vector. The closed reduced equations satisfied by the optimal path are derived by Hamilton-Jacobi theory. When expressed in terms of the macroscopic variables, these equations have the generic structure of governing equations for nonequilibrium thermodynamics. In particular, the value function for the optimization principle coincides with the dissipation potential that defines the relation between thermodynamic forces and fluxes. The adjustable closure parameters in the best-fit reduced equations depend explicitly on the arbitrary weights that enter into the lack-of-fit cost function. Two particular model reductions are outlined to illustrate the general method. In each example the set of weights in the optimization principle contracts into a single effective closure parameter.

  14. Statistical downscaling based on dynamically downscaled predictors: Application to monthly precipitation in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellström, Cecilia; Chen, Deliang

    2003-11-01

    A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.

  15. Statistical dynamic image reconstruction in state-of-the-art high-resolution PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahmim, Arman; Cheng, J-C; Blinder, Stephan; Camborde, Maurie-Laure; Sossi, Vesna

    2005-01-01

    Modern high-resolution PET is now more than ever in need of scrutiny into the nature and limitations of the imaging modality itself as well as image reconstruction techniques. In this work, we have reviewed, analysed and addressed the following three considerations within the particular context of state-of-the-art dynamic PET imaging: (i) the typical average numbers of events per line-of-response (LOR) are now (much) less than unity (ii) due to the physical and biological decay of the activity distribution, one requires robust and efficient reconstruction algorithms applicable to a wide range of statistics and (iii) the computational considerations in dynamic imaging are much enhanced (i.e., more frames to be stored and reconstructed). Within the framework of statistical image reconstruction, we have argued theoretically and shown experimentally that the sinogram non-negativity constraint (when using the delayed-coincidence and/or scatter-subtraction techniques) is especially expected to result in an overestimation bias. Subsequently, two schemes are considered: (a) subtraction techniques in which an image non-negativity constraint has been imposed and (b) implementation of random and scatter estimates inside the reconstruction algorithms, thus enabling direct processing of Poisson-distributed prompts. Both techniques are able to remove the aforementioned bias, while the latter, being better conditioned theoretically, is able to exhibit superior noise characteristics. We have also elaborated upon and verified the applicability of the accelerated list-mode image reconstruction method as a powerful solution for accurate, robust and efficient dynamic reconstructions of high-resolution data (as well as a number of additional benefits in the context of state-of-the-art PET)

  16. Projection of Climate Change Based on Multi-Site Statistical Downscaling over Gilan area, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesta Afzali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The phenomenon of climate change and its consequences is a familiar topic which is associated with natural disasters such as, flooding, hurricane, drought that cause water crisis and irreparable damages. Studying this phenomenon is a serious warning regarding the earth’s weather change for a long period of time. Materials and Methods: In order to understand and survey the impacts of climate change on water resources, Global Circulation Models, GCMs, are used; their main role is analyzing the current climate and projecting the future climate. Climate change scenarios developing from GCMs are the initial source of information to estimate plausible future climate. For transforming coarse resolution outputs of the GCMs into finer resolutions influenced by local variables, there is a need for reliable downscaling techniques in order to analyze climate changes in a region. The classical statistical methods run the model and generate the future climate just with considering the time variable. Multi-site daily rainfall and temperature time series are the primary inputs in most hydrological analyses such as rainfall-runoff modeling. Water resource management is directly influenced by the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and temperature. Therefore, spatial-temporal modeling of daily rainfall or temperature including climate change effects is required for sustainable planning of water resources. Results and Discussion: For the first time, in this study by ASD model (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool developed by M. Hessami et al., multi-site downscaling of temperature and precipitation was done with CGCM3.1A2 outputs and two synoptic stations (Rasht and Bandar Anzali simultaneously by considering the correlations of multiple sites. The model can process conditionally on the occurrence of precipitation or unconditionally for temperature. Hence, the modeling of daily precipitation involves two steps: one step

  17. Statistics for the dynamic analysis of scientometric data: The evolution of the sciences in terms of trajectories and regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leydesdorff, L.

    2013-01-01

    The gap in statistics between multi-variate and time-series analysis can be bridged by using entropy statistics and recent developments in multi-dimensional scaling. For explaining the evolution of the sciences as non-linear dynamics, the configurations among variables can be important in addition

  18. The dynamics of software development project management: An integrative systems dynamic perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandervelde, W. E.; Abdel-Hamid, T.

    1984-01-01

    Rather than continuing to focus on software development projects per se, the system dynamics modeling approach outlined is extended to investigate a broader set of issues pertaining to the software development organization. Rather than trace the life cycle(s) of one or more software projects, the focus is on the operations of a software development department as a continuous stream of software products are developed, placed into operation, and maintained. A number of research questions are ""ripe'' for investigating including: (1) the efficacy of different organizational structures in different software development environments, (2) personnel turnover, (3) impact of management approaches such as management by objectives, and (4) the organizational/environmental determinants of productivity.

  19. Statistical thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Gyeong Hui

    2008-03-01

    This book consists of 15 chapters, which are basic conception and meaning of statistical thermodynamics, Maxwell-Boltzmann's statistics, ensemble, thermodynamics function and fluctuation, statistical dynamics with independent particle system, ideal molecular system, chemical equilibrium and chemical reaction rate in ideal gas mixture, classical statistical thermodynamics, ideal lattice model, lattice statistics and nonideal lattice model, imperfect gas theory on liquid, theory on solution, statistical thermodynamics of interface, statistical thermodynamics of a high molecule system and quantum statistics

  20. Support Provided to the External Tank (ET) Project on the Use of Statistical Analysis for ET Certification Consultation Position Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, Cynthia H.

    2009-01-01

    In June 2004, the June Space Flight Leadership Council (SFLC) assigned an action to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) and External Tank (ET) project jointly to characterize the available dataset [of defect sizes from dissections of foam], identify resultant limitations to statistical treatment of ET as-built foam as part of the overall thermal protection system (TPS) certification, and report to the Program Requirements Change Board (PRCB) and SFLC in September 2004. The NESC statistics team was formed to assist the ET statistics group in August 2004. The NESC's conclusions are presented in this report.

  1. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  2. Weighted regularized statistical shape space projection for breast 3D model reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Guillermo; Ramon, Eduard; García, Jaime; Sukno, Federico M; Ballester, Miguel A González

    2018-05-02

    The use of 3D imaging has increased as a practical and useful tool for plastic and aesthetic surgery planning. Specifically, the possibility of representing the patient breast anatomy in a 3D shape and simulate aesthetic or plastic procedures is a great tool for communication between surgeon and patient during surgery planning. For the purpose of obtaining the specific 3D model of the breast of a patient, model-based reconstruction methods can be used. In particular, 3D morphable models (3DMM) are a robust and widely used method to perform 3D reconstruction. However, if additional prior information (i.e., known landmarks) is combined with the 3DMM statistical model, shape constraints can be imposed to improve the 3DMM fitting accuracy. In this paper, we present a framework to fit a 3DMM of the breast to two possible inputs: 2D photos and 3D point clouds (scans). Our method consists in a Weighted Regularized (WR) projection into the shape space. The contribution of each point in the 3DMM shape is weighted allowing to assign more relevance to those points that we want to impose as constraints. Our method is applied at multiple stages of the 3D reconstruction process. Firstly, it can be used to obtain a 3DMM initialization from a sparse set of 3D points. Additionally, we embed our method in the 3DMM fitting process in which more reliable or already known 3D points or regions of points, can be weighted in order to preserve their shape information. The proposed method has been tested in two different input settings: scans and 2D pictures assessing both reconstruction frameworks with very positive results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Spike sorting using locality preserving projection with gap statistics and landmark-based spectral clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thanh; Khosravi, Abbas; Creighton, Douglas; Nahavandi, Saeid

    2014-12-30

    Understanding neural functions requires knowledge from analysing electrophysiological data. The process of assigning spikes of a multichannel signal into clusters, called spike sorting, is one of the important problems in such analysis. There have been various automated spike sorting techniques with both advantages and disadvantages regarding accuracy and computational costs. Therefore, developing spike sorting methods that are highly accurate and computationally inexpensive is always a challenge in the biomedical engineering practice. An automatic unsupervised spike sorting method is proposed in this paper. The method uses features extracted by the locality preserving projection (LPP) algorithm. These features afterwards serve as inputs for the landmark-based spectral clustering (LSC) method. Gap statistics (GS) is employed to evaluate the number of clusters before the LSC can be performed. The proposed LPP-LSC is highly accurate and computationally inexpensive spike sorting approach. LPP spike features are very discriminative; thereby boost the performance of clustering methods. Furthermore, the LSC method exhibits its efficiency when integrated with the cluster evaluator GS. The proposed method's accuracy is approximately 13% superior to that of the benchmark combination between wavelet transformation and superparamagnetic clustering (WT-SPC). Additionally, LPP-LSC computing time is six times less than that of the WT-SPC. LPP-LSC obviously demonstrates a win-win spike sorting solution meeting both accuracy and computational cost criteria. LPP and LSC are linear algorithms that help reduce computational burden and thus their combination can be applied into real-time spike analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of statistical and dynamics models for snow avalanche hazard assessment in mountain regions of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchaninova, A.

    2012-04-01

    The estimation of extreme avalanche runout distances, flow velocities, impact pressures and volumes is an essential part of snow engineering in mountain regions of Russia. It implies the avalanche hazard assessment and mapping. Russian guidelines accept the application of different avalanche models as well as approaches for the estimation of model input parameters. Consequently different teams of engineers in Russia apply various dynamics and statistical models for engineering practice. However it gives more freedom to avalanche practitioners and experts but causes lots of uncertainties in case of serious limitations of avalanche models. We discuss these problems by presenting the application results of different well known and widely used statistical (developed in Russia) and avalanche dynamics models for several avalanche test sites in the Khibini Mountains (The Kola Peninsula) and the Caucasus. The most accurate and well-documented data from different powder and wet, big rare and small frequent snow avalanche events is collected from 1960th till today in the Khibini Mountains by the Avalanche Safety Center of "Apatit". This data was digitized and is available for use and analysis. Then the detailed digital avalanche database (GIS) was created for the first time. It contains contours of observed avalanches (ESRI shapes, more than 50 years of observations), DEMs, remote sensing data, description of snow pits, photos etc. Thus, the Russian avalanche data is a unique source of information for understanding of an avalanche flow rheology and the future development and calibration of the avalanche dynamics models. GIS database was used to analyze model input parameters and to calibrate and verify avalanche models. Regarding extreme dynamic parameters the outputs using different models can differ significantly. This is unacceptable for the engineering purposes in case of the absence of the well-defined guidelines in Russia. The frequency curves for the runout distance

  5. Using Options to Manage Dynamic Uncertainty in Acquisition Projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ceylan, B. K; Ford, David N

    2002-01-01

    Uncertainty in acquisition projects and environments can degrade performance. Traditional project planning, management tools, and methods can effectively deal with uncertainties in relatively stable environments...

  6. High Brightness HDR Projection Using Dynamic Freeform Lensing

    KAUST Repository

    Damberg, Gerwin

    2016-05-03

    Cinema projectors need to compete with home theater displays in terms of image quality. High frame rate and spatial resolution as well as stereoscopic 3D are common features today, but even the most advanced cinema projectors lack in-scene contrast and, more important, high peak luminance, both of which are essential perceptual attributes of images appearing realistic. At the same time, HDR image statistics suggest that the average image intensity in a controlled ambient viewing environment such as the cinema can be as low as 1% for cinematic HDR content and not often higher than 18%, middle gray in photography. Traditional projection systems form images and colors by blocking the source light from a lamp, therefore attenuating between 99% and 82% of light, on average. This inefficient use of light poses significant challenges for achieving higher peak brightness levels. In this work, we propose a new projector architecture built around commercially available components, in which light can be steered to form images. The gain in system efficiency significantly reduces the total cost of ownership of a projector (fewer components and lower operating cost), and at the same time increases peak luminance and improves black level beyond what is practically achievable with incumbent projector technologies. At the heart of this computational display technology is a new projector hardware design using phase modulation in combination with a new optimization algorithm that is capable of on-the-fly computation of freeform lens surfaces. © 2016 ACM.

  7. Statistical analysis of dimer formation in supersaturated metal vapor based on molecular dynamics simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenchenko, Anna E.; Vorontsov, Alexander G.; Gelchinski, Boris R.; Sannikov, Grigorii P.

    2018-04-01

    We discuss the problem of dimer formation during the homogeneous nucleation of atomic metal vapor in an inert gas environment. We simulated nucleation with molecular dynamics and carried out the statistical analysis of double- and triple-atomic collisions as the two ways of long-lived diatomic complex formation. Close pair of atoms with lifetime greater than the mean time interval between atom-atom collisions is called a long-lived diatomic complex. We found that double- and triple-atomic collisions gave approximately the same probabilities of long-lived diatomic complex formation, but internal energy of the resulted state was essentially lower in the second case. Some diatomic complexes formed in three-particle collisions are stable enough to be a critical nucleus.

  8. Statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in porous crystals with dynamic moieties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Cory M; Braun, Efrem; Carraro, Carlo; Smit, Berend

    2017-01-17

    Some nanoporous, crystalline materials possess dynamic constituents, for example, rotatable moieties. These moieties can undergo a conformation change in response to the adsorption of guest molecules, which qualitatively impacts adsorption behavior. We pose and solve a statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in a porous crystal whose cages share a common ligand that can adopt two distinct rotational conformations. Guest molecules incentivize the ligands to adopt a different rotational configuration than maintained in the empty host. Our model captures inflections, steps, and hysteresis that can arise in the adsorption isotherm as a signature of the rotating ligands. The insights disclosed by our simple model contribute a more intimate understanding of the response and consequence of rotating ligands integrated into porous materials to harness them for gas storage and separations, chemical sensing, drug delivery, catalysis, and nanoscale devices. Particularly, our model reveals design strategies to exploit these moving constituents and engineer improved adsorbents with intrinsic thermal management for pressure-swing adsorption processes.

  9. Failure of large transformation projects from the viewpoint of complex adaptive systems: Management principles for dealing with project dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, M.; Voort, H. van der; Veenstra, A.F.E. van

    2015-01-01

    Many large transformation projects do not result in the outcomes desired or envisioned by the stakeholders. This type of project is characterised by dynamics which are both caused by and result of uncertainties and unexpected behaviour. In this paper a complex adaptive system (CAS) view was adopted

  10. Dynamic statistical optimization of GNSS radio occultation bending angles: advanced algorithm and performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Kirchengast, G.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Norman, R.; Yuan, Y. B.; Fritzer, J.; Schwaerz, M.; Zhang, K.

    2015-08-01

    We introduce a new dynamic statistical optimization algorithm to initialize ionosphere-corrected bending angles of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based radio occultation (RO) measurements. The new algorithm estimates background and observation error covariance matrices with geographically varying uncertainty profiles and realistic global-mean correlation matrices. The error covariance matrices estimated by the new approach are more accurate and realistic than in simplified existing approaches and can therefore be used in statistical optimization to provide optimal bending angle profiles for high-altitude initialization of the subsequent Abel transform retrieval of refractivity. The new algorithm is evaluated against the existing Wegener Center Occultation Processing System version 5.6 (OPSv5.6) algorithm, using simulated data on two test days from January and July 2008 and real observed CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) measurements from the complete months of January and July 2008. The following is achieved for the new method's performance compared to OPSv5.6: (1) significant reduction of random errors (standard deviations) of optimized bending angles down to about half of their size or more; (2) reduction of the systematic differences in optimized bending angles for simulated MetOp data; (3) improved retrieval of refractivity and temperature profiles; and (4) realistically estimated global-mean correlation matrices and realistic uncertainty fields for the background and observations. Overall the results indicate high suitability for employing the new dynamic approach in the processing of long-term RO data into a reference climate record, leading to well-characterized and high-quality atmospheric profiles over the entire stratosphere.

  11. Statistical properties of the linear σ model used in dynamical simulations of DCC formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Randrup, J.

    1997-01-01

    The present work develops a simple approximate framework for initializing and interpreting dynamical simulations with the linear σ model exploring the formation of disoriented chiral condensates in high-energy collisions. By enclosing the system in a rectangular box with periodic boundary conditions, it is possible to decompose uniquely the chiral field into its spatial average (the order parameter) and its fluctuations (the quasiparticles) which can be treated in the Hartree approximation. The quasiparticle modes are then described approximately by Klein-Gordon dispersion relations containing an effective mass depending on both the temperature and the magnitude of the order parameter; their fluctuations are instrumental in shaping the effective potential governing the order parameter, and the emerging statistical description is thermodynamicially consistent. The temperature dependence of the statistical distribution of the order parameter is discussed, as is the behavior of the associated effective masses; as the system is cooled, the field fluctuations subside, causing a smooth change from the high-temperature phase in which chiral symmetry is approximately restored towards the normal phase. Of practical interest is the fact that the equilibrium field configurations can be sampled in a simple manner, thus providing a convenient means for specifying the initial conditions in dynamical simulations of the nonequilibrium relaxation of the chiral field; in particular, the correlation function is much more realistic than those emerging in previous initialization methods. It is illustrated how such samples remain approximately invariant under propagation by the unapproximated equation of motion over times that are long on the scale of interest, thereby suggesting that the treatment is sufficiently accurate to be of practical utility. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  12. Developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships for assessing cumulative effects of fuels treatments: Final Report for Joint Fire Science Program Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey

    2006-01-01

    The primary weakness in our current ability to evaluate future landscapes in terms of wildlife lies in the lack of quantitative models linking wildlife to forest stand conditions, including fuels treatments. This project focuses on 1) developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships models (WHR) utilizing Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and National Vegetation...

  13. Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina

    2017-07-01

    Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961-1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3).

  14. Numerical solutions of ideal quantum gas dynamical flows governed by semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chih-Yuan; Diaz, Manuel; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui; Zhang, Hanxin

    2014-01-08

    The ideal quantum gas dynamics as manifested by the semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) equilibrium distribution derived in Wu et al. (Wu et al . 2012 Proc. R. Soc. A 468 , 1799-1823 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2011.0673)) is numerically studied for particles of three statistics. This anisotropic ES equilibrium distribution was derived using the maximum entropy principle and conserves the mass, momentum and energy, but differs from the standard Fermi-Dirac or Bose-Einstein distribution. The present numerical method combines the discrete velocity (or momentum) ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock-capturing method in physical space. A decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. Computations of two-dimensional Riemann problems are presented, and various contours of the quantities unique to this ES model are illustrated. The main flow features, such as shock waves, expansion waves and slip lines and their complex nonlinear interactions, are depicted and found to be consistent with existing calculations for a classical gas.

  15. Numerical solutions of ideal quantum gas dynamical flows governed by semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chih-Yuan; Diaz, Manuel; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui; Zhang, Hanxin

    2014-01-01

    The ideal quantum gas dynamics as manifested by the semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) equilibrium distribution derived in Wu et al. (Wu et al. 2012 Proc. R. Soc. A 468, 1799–1823 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2011.0673)) is numerically studied for particles of three statistics. This anisotropic ES equilibrium distribution was derived using the maximum entropy principle and conserves the mass, momentum and energy, but differs from the standard Fermi–Dirac or Bose–Einstein distribution. The present numerical method combines the discrete velocity (or momentum) ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock-capturing method in physical space. A decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. Computations of two-dimensional Riemann problems are presented, and various contours of the quantities unique to this ES model are illustrated. The main flow features, such as shock waves, expansion waves and slip lines and their complex nonlinear interactions, are depicted and found to be consistent with existing calculations for a classical gas. PMID:24399919

  16. Neocortical dynamics at multiple scales: EEG standing waves, statistical mechanics, and physical analogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingber, Lester; Nunez, Paul L

    2011-02-01

    The dynamic behavior of scalp potentials (EEG) is apparently due to some combination of global and local processes with important top-down and bottom-up interactions across spatial scales. In treating global mechanisms, we stress the importance of myelinated axon propagation delays and periodic boundary conditions in the cortical-white matter system, which is topologically close to a spherical shell. By contrast, the proposed local mechanisms are multiscale interactions between cortical columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers. A mechanical model consisting of a stretched string with attached nonlinear springs demonstrates the general idea. The string produces standing waves analogous to large-scale coherent EEG observed in some brain states. The attached springs are analogous to the smaller (mesoscopic) scale columnar dynamics. Generally, we expect string displacement and EEG at all scales to result from both global and local phenomena. A statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) calculates oscillatory behavior consistent with typical EEG, within columns, between neighboring columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers, across cortical regions via myelinated fibers, and also derives a string equation consistent with the global EEG model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Statistical Characteristics of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Enhancements During Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-R. Choi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements are known to cause various types of disturbances to the magnetosphere. In particular, dynamic pressure enhancements may affect the evolution of magnetic storms when they occur during storm times. In this paper, we have investigated the statistical significance and features of dynamic pressure enhancements during magnetic storm times. For the investigation, we have used a total of 91 geomagnetic storms for 2001-2003, for which the Dst minimum (Dst_min is below -50 nT. Also, we have imposed a set of selection criteria for a pressure enhancement to be considered an event: The main selection criterion is that the pressure increases by ≥50% or ≥3nPa within 30 min and remains to be elevated for 10 min or longer. For our statistical analysis, we define the storm time to be the interval from the main Dst decrease, through Dst_min, to the point where the Dst index recovers by 50%. Our main results are summarized as follows. (i ~81% of the studied storms indicate at least one event of pressure enhancements. When averaged over all the 91 storms, the occurrence rate is 4.5 pressure enhancement events per storm and 0.15 pressure enhancement events per hour. (ii The occurrence rate of the pressure enhancements is about three times higher for CME-driven storm times than for CIR-driven storm times. (iii Only 21.1% of the pressure enhancements show a clear association with an interplanetary shock. (iv A large number of the pressure enhancement events are accompanied with a simultaneous change of IMF By and/or Bz: For example, 73.5% of the pressure enhancement events are associated with an IMF change of either |∆Bz|>2nT or |∆By|>2nT. This last finding suggests that one should consider possible interplay effects between the simultaneous pressure and IMF changes in many situations.

  18. GUMICS4 Synthetic and Dynamic Simulations of the ECLAT Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facsko, G.; Palmroth, M. M.; Gordeev, E.; Hakkinen, L. V.; Honkonen, I. J.; Janhunen, P.; Sergeev, V. A.; Kauristie, K.; Milan, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    The European Commission funded the European Cluster Assimilation Techniques (ECLAT) project as a collaboration of five leader European universities and research institutes. A main contribution of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) is to provide a wide range of global MHD runs with the Grand Unified Magnetosphere Ionosphere Coupling simulation (GUMICS). The runs are divided in two categories: synthetic runs investigating the extent of solar wind drivers that can influence magnetospheric dynamics, as well as dynamic runs using measured solar wind data as input. Here we consider the first set of runs with synthetic solar wind input. The solar wind density, velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field had different magnitudes and orientations; furthermore two F10.7 flux values were selected for solar radiation minimum and maximum values. The solar wind parameter values were constant such that a constant stable solution was archived. All configurations were run several times with three different (-15°, 0°, +15°) tilt angles in the GSE X-Z plane. The Cray XT supercomputer of the FMI provides a unique opportunity in global magnetohydrodynamic simulation: running the GUMICS-4 based on one year real solar wind data. Solar wind magnetic field, density, temperature and velocity data based on Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and WIND measurements are downloaded from the OMNIWeb open database and a special input file is created for each Cluster orbit. All data gaps are replaced with linear interpolations between the last and first valid data values before and after the data gap. Minimum variance transformation is applied for the Interplanetary Magnetic Field data to clean and avoid the code of divergence. The Cluster orbits are divided into slices allowing parallel computation and each slice has an average tilt angle value. The file timestamps start one hour before the perigee to provide time for building up a magnetosphere in the simulation space. The real

  19. Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao, Yinghua [Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States); Chen, Guang-Hong [Department of Medical Physics and Department of Radiology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States); Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N. [Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States); Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A., E-mail: speidel@wisc.edu [Department of Medical Physics and Department of Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937

  20. Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tao, Yinghua; Chen, Guang-Hong; Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N.; Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937

  1. Dynamic Statistical Models for Pyroclastic Density Current Generation at Soufrière Hills Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, Robert L.; Spiller, Elaine T.; Calder, Eliza S.

    2018-05-01

    To mitigate volcanic hazards from pyroclastic density currents, volcanologists generate hazard maps that provide long-term forecasts of areas of potential impact. Several recent efforts in the field develop new statistical methods for application of flow models to generate fully probabilistic hazard maps that both account for, and quantify, uncertainty. However a limitation to the use of most statistical hazard models, and a key source of uncertainty within them, is the time-averaged nature of the datasets by which the volcanic activity is statistically characterized. Where the level, or directionality, of volcanic activity frequently changes, e.g. during protracted eruptive episodes, or at volcanoes that are classified as persistently active, it is not appropriate to make short term forecasts based on longer time-averaged metrics of the activity. Thus, here we build, fit and explore dynamic statistical models for the generation of pyroclastic density current from Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on Montserrat including their respective collapse direction and flow volumes based on 1996-2008 flow datasets. The development of this approach allows for short-term behavioral changes to be taken into account in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments. We show that collapses from the SHV lava dome follow a clear pattern, and that a series of smaller flows in a given direction often culminate in a larger collapse and thereafter directionality of the flows change. Such models enable short term forecasting (weeks to months) that can reflect evolving conditions such as dome and crater morphology changes and non-stationary eruptive behavior such as extrusion rate variations. For example, the probability of inundation of the Belham Valley in the first 180 days of a forecast period is about twice as high for lava domes facing Northwest toward that valley as it is for domes pointing East toward the Tar River Valley. As rich multi-parametric volcano monitoring dataset become

  2. Gas Dynamic Spray Technology Demonstration Project Management. Joint Test Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Pattie

    2011-01-01

    The standard practice for protecting metallic substrates in atmospheric environments is the use of an applied coating system. Current coating systems used across AFSPC and NASA contain volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). These coatings are sUbject to environmental regulations at the Federal and State levels that limit their usage. In addition, these coatings often cannot withstand the high temperatures and exhaust that may be experienced by Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) and NASA structures. In response to these concerns, AFSPC and NASA have approved the use of thermal spray coatings (TSCs). Thermal spray coatings are extremely durable and environmentally friendly coating alternatives, but utilize large cumbersome equipment for application that make the coatings difficult and time consuming to repair. Other concerns include difficulties coating complex geometries and the cost of equipment, training, and materials. Gas Dynamic Spray (GOS) technology (also known as Cold Spray) was evaluated as a smaller, more maneuverable repair method as well as for areas where thermal spray techniques are not as effective. The technology can result in reduced maintenance and thus reduced hazardous materials/wastes associated with current processes. Thermal spray and GOS coatings also have no VOCs and are environmentally preferable coatings. The primary objective of this effort was to demonstrate GDS technology as a repair method for TSCs. The aim was that successful completion of this project would result in approval of GDS technology as a repair method for TSCs at AFSPC and NASA installations to improve corrosion protection at critical systems, facilitate easier maintenance activity, extend maintenance cycles, eliminate flight hardware contamination, and reduce the amount of hazardous waste generated.

  3. Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brekke, L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

  4. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; Liu Crouch, Feifei; Jacob, Robert L.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2014-01-01

    functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures

  5. Interrupted Time Series Versus Statistical Process Control in Quality Improvement Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson Hagiwara, Magnus; Andersson Gäre, Boel; Elg, Mattias

    2016-01-01

    To measure the effect of quality improvement interventions, it is appropriate to use analysis methods that measure data over time. Examples of such methods include statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis. This article compares the use of statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis for evaluating the longitudinal effects of quality improvement interventions, using an example study on an evaluation of a computerized decision support system.

  6. Inferring epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases using Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kiyeon; Omori, Ryosuke; Ito, Kimihito

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the basic reproduction number is essential to understand epidemic dynamics, and time series data of infected individuals are usually used for the estimation. However, such data are not always available. Methods to estimate the basic reproduction number using genealogy constructed from nucleotide sequences of pathogens have been proposed so far. Here, we propose a new method to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks using the time series change of Tajima's D statistic on the nucleotide sequences of pathogens. To relate the time evolution of Tajima's D to the number of infected individuals, we constructed a parsimonious mathematical model describing both the transmission process of pathogens among hosts and the evolutionary process of the pathogens. As a case study we applied this method to the field data of nucleotide sequences of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses collected in Argentina. The Tajima's D-based method estimated basic reproduction number to be 1.55 with 95% highest posterior density (HPD) between 1.31 and 2.05, and the date of epidemic peak to be 10th July with 95% HPD between 22nd June and 9th August. The estimated basic reproduction number was consistent with estimation by birth-death skyline plot and estimation using the time series of the number of infected individuals. These results suggested that Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens could be useful to estimate epidemiological parameters of outbreaks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Spatial analysis and statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalayas, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidinger, Johannes; Gerlitz, Lars; Böhner, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    General circulation models are able to predict large scale climate variations in global dimensions, however small scale dynamic characteristics, such as snow cover and its temporal variations in high mountain regions, are not represented sufficiently. Detailed knowledge about shifts in seasonal ablation times and spatial distribution of snow cover are crucial for various research interests. Since high mountain areas, for instance the Central Himalayas in Nepal, are generally remote, it is difficult to obtain data in high spatio-temporal resolutions. Regional climate models and downscaling techniques are implemented to compensate coarse resolution. Furthermore earth observation systems, such as MODIS, also permit bridging this gap to a certain extent. They offer snow (cover) data in daily temporal and medium spatial resolution of around 500 m, which can be applied as evaluation and training data for dynamical hydrological and statistical analyses. Within this approach two snow distribution models (binary snow cover and fractional snow cover) as well as one snow recession model were implemented for a research domain in the Rolwaling Himal in Nepal, employing the random forest technique, which represents a state of the art machine learning algorithm. Both bottom-up strategies provide inductive reasoning to derive rules for snow related processes out of climate (temperature, precipitation and irradiance) and climate-related topographic data sets (elevation, aspect and convergence index) obtained by meteorological network stations, remote sensing products (snow cover - MOD10-A1 and land surface temperatures - MOD11-A1) along with GIS. Snow distribution is predicted reliably on a daily basis in the research area, whereas further effort is necessary for predicting daily snow cover recession processes adequately. Swift changes induced by clear sky conditions with high insolation rates are well represented, whereas steady snow loss still needs continuing effort. All

  8. Statistical mechanics and dynamics of solvable models with long-range interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campa, Alessandro; Dauxois, Thierry; Ruffo, Stefano

    2009-01-01

    For systems with long-range interactions, the two-body potential decays at large distances as V(r)∼1/r α , with α≤d, where d is the space dimension. Examples are: gravitational systems, two-dimensional hydrodynamics, two-dimensional elasticity, charged and dipolar systems. Although such systems can be made extensive, they are intrinsically non additive: the sum of the energies of macroscopic subsystems is not equal to the energy of the whole system. Moreover, the space of accessible macroscopic thermodynamic parameters might be non convex. The violation of these two basic properties of the thermodynamics of short-range systems is at the origin of ensemble inequivalence. In turn, this inequivalence implies that specific heat can be negative in the microcanonical ensemble, and temperature jumps can appear at microcanonical first order phase transitions. The lack of convexity allows us to easily spot regions of parameter space where ergodicity may be broken. Historically, negative specific heat had been found for gravitational systems and was thought to be a specific property of a system for which the existence of standard equilibrium statistical mechanics itself was doubted. Realizing that such properties may be present for a wider class of systems has renewed the interest in long-range interactions. Here, we present a comprehensive review of the recent advances on the statistical mechanics and out-of-equilibrium dynamics of solvable systems with long-range interactions. The core of the review consists in the detailed presentation of the concept of ensemble inequivalence, as exemplified by the exact solution, in the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, of mean-field type models. Remarkably, the entropy of all these models can be obtained using the method of large deviations. Long-range interacting systems display an extremely slow relaxation towards thermodynamic equilibrium and, what is more striking, the convergence towards quasi-stationary states. The

  9. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  10. Statistical state dynamics-based analysis of the physical mechanisms sustaining and regulating turbulence in Couette flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Brian F.; Ioannou, Petros J.

    2017-08-01

    This paper describes a study of the self-sustaining process in wall turbulence. The study is based on a second order statistical state dynamics model of Couette flow in which the state variables are the streamwise mean flow (first cumulant) and perturbation covariance (second cumulant). This statistical state dynamics model is closed by either setting the third cumulant to zero or by replacing it with a stochastic parametrization. Statistical state dynamics models with this form are referred to as S3T models. S3T models have been shown to self-sustain turbulence with a mean flow and second order perturbation structure similar to that obtained by direct numerical simulation of the equations of motion. The use of a statistical state dynamics model to study the physical mechanisms underlying turbulence has important advantages over the traditional approach of studying the dynamics of individual realizations of turbulence. One advantage is that the analytical structure of S3T statistical state dynamics models isolates the interaction between the mean flow and the perturbation components of the turbulence. Isolation of the interaction between these components reveals how this interaction underlies both the maintenance of the turbulence variance by transfer of energy from the externally driven flow to the perturbation components as well as the enforcement of the observed statistical mean turbulent state by feedback regulation between the mean and perturbation fields. Another advantage of studying turbulence using statistical state dynamics models of S3T form is that the analytical structure of S3T turbulence can be completely characterized. For example, the perturbation component of turbulence in the S3T system is demonstrably maintained by a parametric perturbation growth mechanism in which fluctuation of the mean flow maintains the perturbation field which in turn maintains the mean flow fluctuations in a synergistic interaction. Furthermore, the equilibrium

  11. Dynamic PET simulator via tomographic emission projection for kinetic modeling and parametric image studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Häggström, Ida, E-mail: haeggsti@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 and Department of Radiation Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå 90187 (Sweden); Beattie, Bradley J.; Schmidtlein, C. Ross [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To develop and evaluate a fast and simple tool called dPETSTEP (Dynamic PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection), for dynamic PET simulations as an alternative to Monte Carlo (MC), useful for educational purposes and evaluation of the effects of the clinical environment, postprocessing choices, etc., on dynamic and parametric images. Methods: The tool was developed in MATLAB using both new and previously reported modules of PETSTEP (PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection). Time activity curves are generated for each voxel of the input parametric image, whereby effects of imaging system blurring, counting noise, scatters, randoms, and attenuation are simulated for each frame. Each frame is then reconstructed into images according to the user specified method, settings, and corrections. Reconstructed images were compared to MC data, and simple Gaussian noised time activity curves (GAUSS). Results: dPETSTEP was 8000 times faster than MC. Dynamic images from dPETSTEP had a root mean square error that was within 4% on average of that of MC images, whereas the GAUSS images were within 11%. The average bias in dPETSTEP and MC images was the same, while GAUSS differed by 3% points. Noise profiles in dPETSTEP images conformed well to MC images, confirmed visually by scatter plot histograms, and statistically by tumor region of interest histogram comparisons that showed no significant differences (p < 0.01). Compared to GAUSS, dPETSTEP images and noise properties agreed better with MC. Conclusions: The authors have developed a fast and easy one-stop solution for simulations of dynamic PET and parametric images, and demonstrated that it generates both images and subsequent parametric images with very similar noise properties to those of MC images, in a fraction of the time. They believe dPETSTEP to be very useful for generating fast, simple, and realistic results, however since it uses simple scatter and random models it may not be suitable for

  12. Dynamic PET simulator via tomographic emission projection for kinetic modeling and parametric image studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Häggström, Ida; Beattie, Bradley J.; Schmidtlein, C. Ross

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop and evaluate a fast and simple tool called dPETSTEP (Dynamic PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection), for dynamic PET simulations as an alternative to Monte Carlo (MC), useful for educational purposes and evaluation of the effects of the clinical environment, postprocessing choices, etc., on dynamic and parametric images. Methods: The tool was developed in MATLAB using both new and previously reported modules of PETSTEP (PET Simulator of Tracers via Emission Projection). Time activity curves are generated for each voxel of the input parametric image, whereby effects of imaging system blurring, counting noise, scatters, randoms, and attenuation are simulated for each frame. Each frame is then reconstructed into images according to the user specified method, settings, and corrections. Reconstructed images were compared to MC data, and simple Gaussian noised time activity curves (GAUSS). Results: dPETSTEP was 8000 times faster than MC. Dynamic images from dPETSTEP had a root mean square error that was within 4% on average of that of MC images, whereas the GAUSS images were within 11%. The average bias in dPETSTEP and MC images was the same, while GAUSS differed by 3% points. Noise profiles in dPETSTEP images conformed well to MC images, confirmed visually by scatter plot histograms, and statistically by tumor region of interest histogram comparisons that showed no significant differences (p < 0.01). Compared to GAUSS, dPETSTEP images and noise properties agreed better with MC. Conclusions: The authors have developed a fast and easy one-stop solution for simulations of dynamic PET and parametric images, and demonstrated that it generates both images and subsequent parametric images with very similar noise properties to those of MC images, in a fraction of the time. They believe dPETSTEP to be very useful for generating fast, simple, and realistic results, however since it uses simple scatter and random models it may not be suitable for

  13. 77 FR 33729 - Disability and Rehabilitation Research Projects and Centers Program-National Data and Statistical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-07

    ... inclusion and integration of individuals with disabilities into society, and promote the employment... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Disability and Rehabilitation Research Projects and Centers Program.... Final priority; National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research (NIDRR)--Disability and...

  14. Nonequilibrium statistical physics of small systems: fluctuation relations and beyond (annual reviews of nonlinear dynamics and complexity (vch))

    CERN Document Server

    2013-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive picture of nonequilibrium phenomena in nanoscale systems. Written by internationally recognized experts in the field, this book strikes a balance between theory and experiment, and includes in-depth introductions to nonequilibrium fluctuation relations, nonlinear dynamics and transport, single molecule experiments, and molecular diffusion in nanopores. The authors explore the application of these concepts to nano- and biosystems by cross-linking key methods and ideas from nonequilibrium statistical physics, thermodynamics, stochastic theory, and dynamical s

  15. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  16. Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

    2016-06-01

    Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

  17. Statistical evaluation of a project to estimate fish trajectories through the intakes of Kaplan hydropower turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Virginia Kay

    This paper examines statistical issues associated with estimating paths of juvenile salmon through the intakes of Kaplan turbines. Passive sensors, hydrophones, detecting signals from ultrasonic transmitters implanted in individual fish released into the preturbine region were used to obtain the information to estimate fish paths through the intake. Aim and location of the sensors affects the spatial region in which the transmitters can be detected, and formulas relating this region to sensor aiming directions are derived. Cramer-Rao lower bounds for the variance of estimators of fish location are used to optimize placement of each sensor. Finally, a statistical methodology is developed for analyzing angular data collected from optimally placed sensors.

  18. Exponential rise of dynamical complexity in quantum computing through projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgarth, Daniel Klaus; Facchi, Paolo; Giovannetti, Vittorio; Nakazato, Hiromichi; Pascazio, Saverio; Yuasa, Kazuya

    2014-10-10

    The ability of quantum systems to host exponentially complex dynamics has the potential to revolutionize science and technology. Therefore, much effort has been devoted to developing of protocols for computation, communication and metrology, which exploit this scaling, despite formidable technical difficulties. Here we show that the mere frequent observation of a small part of a quantum system can turn its dynamics from a very simple one into an exponentially complex one, capable of universal quantum computation. After discussing examples, we go on to show that this effect is generally to be expected: almost any quantum dynamics becomes universal once 'observed' as outlined above. Conversely, we show that any complex quantum dynamics can be 'purified' into a simpler one in larger dimensions. We conclude by demonstrating that even local noise can lead to an exponentially complex dynamics.

  19. The projection operator in a Hilbert space and its directional derivative. Consequences for the theory of projected dynamical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Isac

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In the first part of this paper we present a representation theorem for the directional derivative of the metric projection operator in an arbitrary Hilbert space. As a consequence of the representation theorem, we present in the second part the development of the theory of projected dynamical systems in infinite dimensional Hilbert space. We show that this development is possible if we use the viable solutions of differential inclusions. We use also pseudomonotone operators.

  20. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  1. Expansion of the On-line Archive "Statistically Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Maurer, E. P.; Das, T.; Duffy, P.; White, K.

    2009-12-01

    Presentation highlights status and plans for a public-access archive of downscaled CMIP3 climate projections. Incorporating climate projection information into long-term evaluations of water and energy resources requires analysts to have access to projections at "basin-relevant" resolution. Such projections would ideally be bias-corrected to account for climate model tendencies to systematically simulate historical conditions different than observed. In 2007, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Santa Clara University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) collaborated to develop an archive of 112 bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated (BCSD) CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections. These projections were generated using 16 CMIP3 models to simulate three emissions pathways (A2, A1b, and B1) from one or more initializations (runs). Projections are specified on a monthly time step from 1950-2099 and at 0.125 degree spatial resolution within the North American Land Data Assimilation System domain (i.e. contiguous U.S., southern Canada and northern Mexico). Archive data are freely accessible at LLNL Green Data Oasis (url). Since being launched, the archive has served over 3500 data requests by nearly 500 users in support of a range of planning, research and educational activities. Archive developers continue to look for ways to improve the archive and respond to user needs. One request has been to serve the intermediate datasets generated during the BCSD procedure, helping users to interpret the relative influences of the bias-correction and spatial disaggregation on the transformed CMIP3 output. This request has been addressed with intermediate datasets now posted at the archive web-site. Another request relates closely to studying hydrologic and ecological impacts under climate change, where users are asking for projected diurnal temperature information (e.g., projected daily minimum and maximum temperature) and daily time step resolution. In

  2. A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jin; Li, Zheng; Li, Shuliang; Zhang, Yanyan

    2015-07-01

    There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

  3. Measuring radiation damage dynamics by pulsed ion beam irradiation: 2016 project annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucheyev, Sergei O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-01-04

    The major goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a novel experimental approach to access the dynamic regime of radiation damage formation in nuclear materials. In particular, the project exploits a pulsed-ion-beam method in order to gain insight into defect interaction dynamics by measuring effective defect interaction time constants and defect diffusion lengths. For Year 3, this project had the following two major milestones: (i) the demonstration of the measurement of thermally activated defect-interaction processes by pulsed ion beam techniques and (ii) the demonstration of alternative characterization techniques to study defect dynamics. As we describe below, both of these milestones have been met.

  4. Statistical methods for quantitative indicators of impacts, applied to transmission line projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ospina Norena, Jesus Efren; Lema Tapias, Alvaro de Jesus

    2005-01-01

    Multivariate statistical analyses are proposed for encountering the relationships between variables and impacts, to obtain high explanatory power for interpretation of the causes and effects and achieve the highest certainty possible, to evaluate and classify impacts by their level of influence

  5. Engaging Students in Survey Research Projects across Research Methods and Statistics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovekamp, William E.; Soboroff, Shane D.; Gillespie, Michael D.

    2017-01-01

    One innovative way to help students make sense of survey research has been to create a multifaceted, collaborative assignment that promotes critical thinking, comparative analysis, self-reflection, and statistical literacy. We use a short questionnaire adapted from the Higher Education Research Institute's Cooperative Institutional Research…

  6. Statistical estimate of factors influence on sorption of Mo(Ⅵ) ions by tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parshutkin, V.V.; Granovskiy, Yu.V.; Prozorovskaya, Z.N.

    1986-01-01

    Present work is devoted to statistical estimate of factors influence on sorption of Mo(Ⅵ) ions by tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions. The influence of different factors on the process of sorption of Co(Ⅵ) ions by cryo-granular tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions is studied and optimal conditions of their extraction from aqueous solutions are considered. It is defined that factors significant affect the sorption process in dynamic conditions are: concentration of Mo(Ⅵ) ions in solution; the mass of sorbent; the rate of transmission of solution through the layer of sorbent; concentration of SO 4 2- ions in solution.

  7. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

    2017-01-01

    Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

  8. Enterprise Human Resources Integration-Statistical Data Mart (EHRI-SDM) Dynamics Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Personnel Management — The Enterprise Human Resources Integration-Statistical Data Mart (EHRI-SDM) is a statistically cleansed sub-set of the data contained in the EHRI data warehouse. It...

  9. Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind...

  10. Dynamic Commitment: Wargaming Projected Forces Against the QDR Defense Strategy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carter, Clarence

    1997-01-01

    .... The Dynamic Commitment Wargame Series informed participants regarding the expected future demand on forces, such that Services were better able to articulate the effect of the examined force options...

  11. METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTION OF OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS IN THE DENVER STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FISHMAN, LESLIE; AND OTHERS

    THE FINAL STAGE OF A PROGRAM FOR ACHIEVING A BALANCE BETWEEN THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LABOR IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES INTO OCCUPATIONAL REQUIREMENTS BASED ON PROJECTIONS OF OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS BY INDUSTRY. THIS CAN BE USED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE, AND PROVIDE THE…

  12. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

  13. Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, T. (Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States))

    1994-06-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations. 46 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs.

  14. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  15. Dynamics and spike trains statistics in conductance-based integrate-and-fire neural networks with chemical and electric synapses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cofré, Rodrigo; Cessac, Bruno

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the effect of electric synapses (gap junctions) on collective neuronal dynamics and spike statistics in a conductance-based integrate-and-fire neural network, driven by Brownian noise, where conductances depend upon spike history. We compute explicitly the time evolution operator and show that, given the spike-history of the network and the membrane potentials at a given time, the further dynamical evolution can be written in a closed form. We show that spike train statistics is described by a Gibbs distribution whose potential can be approximated with an explicit formula, when the noise is weak. This potential form encompasses existing models for spike trains statistics analysis such as maximum entropy models or generalized linear models (GLM). We also discuss the different types of correlations: those induced by a shared stimulus and those induced by neurons interactions

  16. The dynamical and statistical properties of cognitive strategies: relations between strategies, attractors, and latent classes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Maas, H.L.J.; Newell, K.; Molenaar, P.C.M.

    1998-01-01

    Cognitive developmental psychology is faced with new developments in the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamic systems and in psychometrics. This chapter addresses: the relation between the strategy concept in cognitive developmental psychology and the concept of attractor in nonlinear dynamic

  17. Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2008-01-01

    For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

  18. From space and from the ground: determining forest dynamics in settlement projects in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diniz, F.H.; Kok, K.; Hott, H.C.; Hoogstra-Klein, M.A.; Arts, B.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been partially attributed to the establishment of settlement projects. Acknowledging the difficulties in quantifying the rate and patterns of deforestation, the objective of this paper is to determine forest dynamics (deforestation and reforestation) in

  19. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.

    2015-01-01

    Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models......), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation...... that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided...

  20. The development of mini project interactive media on junior statistical materials (developmental research in junior high school)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauziah, D.; Mardiyana; Saputro, D. R. S.

    2018-05-01

    Assessment is an integral part in the learning process. The process and the result should be in line, regarding to measure the ability of learners. Authentic assessment refers to a form of assessment that measures the competence of attitudes, knowledge, and skills. In fact, many teachers including mathematics teachers who have implemented curriculum based teaching 2013 feel confuse and difficult in mastering the use of authentic assessment instruments. Therefore, it is necessary to design an authentic assessment instrument with an interactive mini media project where teacher can adopt it in the assessment. The type of this research is developmental research. The developmental research refers to the 4D models development, which consist of four stages: define, design, develop and disseminate. The research purpose is to create a valid mini project interactive media on statistical materials in junior high school. The retrieved valid instrument based on expert judgment are 3,1 for eligibility constructions aspect, and 3,2 for eligibility presentation aspect, 3,25 for eligibility contents aspect, and 2,9 for eligibility didactic aspect. The research results obtained interactive mini media projects on statistical materials using Adobe Flash so it can help teachers and students in achieving learning objectives.

  1. Organization Design for Dynamic Fit: A Review and Projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Nissen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The concept of fit is central to organization design. In the organizational literature, fit historically has been portrayed as a static concept. Both organizations and their environments, however, are continually changing, so a valid concept of fit needs to reflect organizational dynamics. In this article, I analyze various theoretical perspectives and studies that relate to organizational fit, differentiating those that employ an equilibrating or a fluxing approach. Four substantive themes emerge from this analysis: design orientation, design tension, designer/manager roles, and measurement and validation. Implications of each of these themes for dynamic fit are derived, and promising future research directions are discussed.

  2. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  3. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  4. Motivation, values, and work design as drivers of participation in the R open source project for statistical computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Patrick; Hofmann, Eva; Gruber, Kathrin; Hatzinger, Reinhold; Zeileis, Achim; Hornik, Kurt

    2015-01-01

    One of the cornerstones of the R system for statistical computing is the multitude of packages contributed by numerous package authors. This amount of packages makes an extremely broad range of statistical techniques and other quantitative methods freely available. Thus far, no empirical study has investigated psychological factors that drive authors to participate in the R project. This article presents a study of R package authors, collecting data on different types of participation (number of packages, participation in mailing lists, participation in conferences), three psychological scales (types of motivation, psychological values, and work design characteristics), and various socio-demographic factors. The data are analyzed using item response models and subsequent generalized linear models, showing that the most important determinants for participation are a hybrid form of motivation and the social characteristics of the work design. Other factors are found to have less impact or influence only specific aspects of participation. PMID:26554005

  5. Motivation, values, and work design as drivers of participation in the R open source project for statistical computing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Patrick; Hofmann, Eva; Gruber, Kathrin; Hatzinger, Reinhold; Zeileis, Achim; Hornik, Kurt

    2015-12-01

    One of the cornerstones of the R system for statistical computing is the multitude of packages contributed by numerous package authors. This amount of packages makes an extremely broad range of statistical techniques and other quantitative methods freely available. Thus far, no empirical study has investigated psychological factors that drive authors to participate in the R project. This article presents a study of R package authors, collecting data on different types of participation (number of packages, participation in mailing lists, participation in conferences), three psychological scales (types of motivation, psychological values, and work design characteristics), and various socio-demographic factors. The data are analyzed using item response models and subsequent generalized linear models, showing that the most important determinants for participation are a hybrid form of motivation and the social characteristics of the work design. Other factors are found to have less impact or influence only specific aspects of participation.

  6. A commercial microbial enhanced oil recovery process: statistical evaluation of a multi-project database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Portwood, J.T.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses a database of information collected and organized during the past eight years from 2,000 producing oil wells in the United States, all of which have been treated with special applications techniques developed to improve the effectiveness of MEOR technology. The database, believed to be the first of its kind, has been generated for the purpose of statistically evaluating the effectiveness and economics of the MEOR process in a wide variety of oil reservoir environments, and is a tool that can be used to improve the predictability of treatment response. The information in the database has also been evaluated to determine which, if any, reservoir characteristics are dominant factors in determining the applicability of MEOR.

  7. Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismic activity: a statistical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collignon, Marine; Hammer, Øyvind; Fallahi, Mohammad J.; Lupi, Matteo; Schmid, Daniel W.; Alwi, Husein; Hadi, Soffian; Mazzini, Adriano

    2017-04-01

    The 29th May 2006, gas water and mud breccia started to erupt at several localities along the Watukosek fault system in the Sidoarjo Regency in East Java Indonesia. The most prominent eruption site, named Lusi, is still active and the emitted material now covers a surface of nearly 7 km2, resulting in the displacement of 60.000 people (up to date). Due to its social and economic impacts, as well as its spectacular dimensions, the Lusi eruption still attracts the attention of international media and scientists. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERC grant n° 308126), many efforts were made to develop a quasi-constant monitoring of the site and the regional areas. Several studies attempted to predict the flow rate evolution or ground deformation, resulting in either overestimating or underestimating the longevity of the eruption. Models have failed because Lusi is not a mud volcano but a sedimentary hosted hydrothermal system that became apparent after the M6.3 Yogyakarta earthquake. Another reason is because such models usually assume that the flow will decrease pacing the overpressure reduction during the deflation of the chamber. These models typically consider a closed system with a unique chamber that is not being recharged. Overall the flow rate has decreased over the past ten years, although it has been largely fluctuating with monthly periods of higher mud breccia discharge. Monitoring of the eruption has revealed that numerous anomalous events are temporally linked to punctual events such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Nevertheless, the quantification of these events has never been investigated in details. In this study, we present a compilation of anomalous events observed at the Lusi site during the last 10 years. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we then statistically compare the displacement, recorded at different seismic stations around Lusi, with the regional and global earthquakes catalogue to test the probability that an earthquake

  8. Heuristic algorithm for single resource constrained project scheduling problem based on the dynamic programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanimirović Ivan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a heuristic method for the single resource constrained project scheduling problem, based on the dynamic programming solution of the knapsack problem. This method schedules projects with one type of resources, in the non-preemptive case: once started an activity is not interrupted and runs to completion. We compare the implementation of this method with well-known heuristic scheduling method, called Minimum Slack First (known also as Gray-Kidd algorithm, as well as with Microsoft Project.

  9. Co-ordinated Research Projects (CRPs): Annual report of activities and statistics for 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    Article III of the IAEA Statute authorises the Agency to encourage and assist research on, and development and practical application of, atomic energy for peaceful purposes throughout the world and to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information, as well as the exchange of scientists in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy. The research supported by the Agency is within the framework of the Agency's programmes, sub-programmes and projects that are listed in the approved Programme and Budget of the Agency. The research work is normally implemented through Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs) that bring together research institutes in both developing and developed Member States to collaborate on the research topic of interest. Doctoral CRPs, (previously known as Thematic CRPs), meant to complement traditional CRPs, are currently being tested by the Human Health programme. This new, optional type of CRP is designed to strengthen promotion of research on nuclear technologies in developing Member States through CRPs that rest on pair building between agreement holders and contract holders and includes a PhD training programme at the contract holders? institutions. Further details of the administration of research contracts and general information on CRPs is contained in the Agency's Website at http://www-crp.iaea.org. The CRPs reported in this document are conducted in support of the following Agency programmes: Nuclear Power; Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Material Technologies; Analysis for Sustainable Energy Development; Nuclear Science; Food and Agriculture; Human Health; Water Resources; Protection of the Marine and Terrestrial Environments; Physical and Chemical Applications; Safety of Nuclear Installations; Radiation Safety; Management of Radioactive Waste; Safeguards. The Sub-programmes supported by the CRPs are listed. Results of research are available to all Member States, and are disseminated through national, international and Agency scientific

  10. Co-ordinated Research Projects (CRPs): Annual report of activities and statistics for 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-07-15

    Article III of the IAEA Statute authorises the Agency to encourage and assist research on, and development and practical application of, atomic energy for peaceful purposes throughout the world and to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information, as well as the exchange of scientists in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy. The research supported by the Agency is within the framework of the Agency's programmes, sub-programmes and projects that are listed in the approved Programme and Budget of the Agency. The research work is normally implemented through Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs) that bring together research institutes in both developing and developed Member States to collaborate on the research topic of interest. In addition, the introduction of a new type of CRP (called Thematic CRP), meant to complement traditional CRPs, is currently being tested by the Human Health programme. This new, optional type of CRP is designed to strengthen promotion of research on nuclear technologies in developing Member States through CRPs that rest on pair building between agreement holders and contract holders and includes a PhD training programme at the contract holders' institutions. Further details of the administration of research contracts and general information on CRPs is contained in the Agency?s Website at http://www.iaea.org/programmes/ri/uc.html. The CRPs reported in this document are conducted in support of the following Agency programmes: Nuclear Power; Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Management Technology; Comparative Assessment for Sustainable Energy Development; Food and Agriculture; Human Health; Marine Environment and Water Resources; Applications of Physical and Chemical Sciences; Nuclear Safety; Radiation Safety; Radioactive Waste Safety; Co-ordination of Safety Activities; Safeguards. The Sub-programmes supported by the CRPs are listed. Results of research are available to all Member States, and are disseminated through national

  11. Co-ordinated Research Projects (CRPs): Annual report of activities and statistics for 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-07-01

    Article III of the IAEA Statute authorises the Agency to encourage and assist research on, and development and practical application of, atomic energy for peaceful purposes throughout the world and to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information, as well as the exchange of scientists in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy. The research supported by the Agency is within the framework of the Agency's programmes, sub-programmes and projects that are listed in the approved Programme and Budget of the Agency. The research work is normally implemented through Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs) that bring together research institutes in both developing and developed Member States to collaborate on the research topic of interest. In addition, the introduction of a new type of CRP (called Thematic CRP), meant to complement traditional CRPs, is currently being tested by the Human Health programme. This new, optional type of CRP is designed to strengthen promotion of research on nuclear technologies in developing Member States through CRPs that rest on pair building between agreement holders and contract holders and includes a PhD training programme at the contract holders' institutions. Further details of the administration of research contracts and general information on CRPs is contained in the Agency?s Website at http://www.iaea.org/programmes/ri/uc.html. The CRPs reported in this document are conducted in support of the following Agency programmes: Nuclear Power; Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Management Technology; Comparative Assessment for Sustainable Energy Development; Food and Agriculture; Human Health; Marine Environment and Water Resources; Applications of Physical and Chemical Sciences; Nuclear Safety; Radiation Safety; Radioactive Waste Safety; Co-ordination of Safety Activities; Safeguards. The Sub-programmes supported by the CRPs are listed. Results of research are available to all Member States, and are disseminated through national

  12. Co-ordinated Research Projects (CRPs): Annual report of activities and statistics for 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-15

    Article III of the IAEA Statute authorises the Agency to encourage and assist research on, and development and practical application of, atomic energy for peaceful purposes throughout the world and to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information, as well as the exchange of scientists in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy. The research supported by the Agency is within the framework of the Agency's programmes, sub-programmes and projects that are listed in the approved Programme and Budget of the Agency. The research work is normally implemented through Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs) that bring together research institutes in both developing and developed Member States to collaborate on the research topic of interest. Doctoral CRPs, (previously known as Thematic CRPs), meant to complement traditional CRPs, are currently being tested by the Human Health programme. This new, optional type of CRP is designed to strengthen promotion of research on nuclear technologies in developing Member States through CRPs that rest on pair building between agreement holders and contract holders and includes a PhD training programme at the contract holders? institutions. Further details of the administration of research contracts and general information on CRPs is contained in the Agency's Website at http://www-crp.iaea.org. The CRPs reported in this document are conducted in support of the following Agency programmes: Nuclear Power; Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Material Technologies; Analysis for Sustainable Energy Development; Nuclear Science; Food and Agriculture; Human Health; Water Resources; Protection of the Marine and Terrestrial Environments; Physical and Chemical Applications; Safety of Nuclear Installations; Radiation Safety; Management of Radioactive Waste; Safeguards. The Sub-programmes supported by the CRPs are listed. Results of research are available to all Member States, and are disseminated through national, international and Agency scientific

  13. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, Paul Martin

    2013-01-01

    statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point

  14. Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

  15. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.

    impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors and four are bias correction methods. The change factor methods perturb the observations according to changes in precipitation properties estimated from the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The bias correction methods correct the output from...... the RCMs. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from fifteen RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project for eleven catchments in Europe. The performance of the bias correction methods depends on the catchment, but in all cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM output. The overall...... results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in all the catchments in winter and in most catchments in summer. For each catchment, the results tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. These differences can be mainly explained due to differences in the RCMs....

  16. Projective Synchronization of Chaotic Discrete Dynamical Systems via Linear State Error Feedback Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baogui Xin

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available A projective synchronization scheme for a kind of n-dimensional discrete dynamical system is proposed by means of a linear feedback control technique. The scheme consists of master and slave discrete dynamical systems coupled by linear state error variables. A kind of novel 3-D chaotic discrete system is constructed, to which the test for chaos is applied. By using the stability principles of an upper or lower triangular matrix, two controllers for achieving projective synchronization are designed and illustrated with the novel systems. Lastly some numerical simulations are employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed projective synchronization scheme.

  17. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lavaysse

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

  18. Complex projection of unitary dynamics of quaternionic pure states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asorey, M.; Scolarici, G.; Solombrino, L.

    2007-01-01

    Quaternionic quantum mechanics has been revealed to be a very useful framework to describe quantum phenomena. In the case of two qubit compound systems we show that the complex projection of quaternionic pure states and quaternionic unitary maps permits the description of interesting phenomena such as decoherence and optimal entanglement generation. The approach, however, presents severe limitations for the case of multipartite or higher dimensional bipartite quantum systems as we point out

  19. Analysis of proton-induced fragment production cross sections by the Quantum Molecular Dynamics plus Statistical Decay Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiba, Satoshi; Iwamoto, Osamu; Fukahori, Tokio; Niita, Koji; Maruyama, Toshiki; Maruyama, Tomoyuki; Iwamoto, Akira [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1997-03-01

    The production cross sections of various fragments from proton-induced reactions on {sup 56}Fe and {sup 27}Al have been analyzed by the Quantum Molecular Dynamics (QMD) plus Statistical Decay Model (SDM). It was found that the mass and charge distributions calculated with and without the statistical decay have very different shapes. These results also depend strongly on the impact parameter, showing an importance of the dynamical treatment as realized by the QMD approach. The calculated results were compared with experimental data in the energy region from 50 MeV to 5 GeV. The QMD+SDM calculation could reproduce the production cross sections of the light clusters and intermediate-mass to heavy fragments in a good accuracy. The production cross section of {sup 7}Be was, however, underpredicted by approximately 2 orders of magnitude, showing the necessity of another reaction mechanism not taken into account in the present model. (author)

  20. Local and global statistical dynamical properties of chaotic Markov analytic maps and repellers: A coarse grained and spectral perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKernan, Donal; Basios, Vasileios

    2009-01-01

    The statistical properties of chaotic Markov analytic maps and equivalent repellers are investigated through matrix representations of the Frobenius-Perron operator (U). The associated basis sets are constructed using Chebyshev functions and Markov partitions which can be tailored to examine statistical dynamical properties associated with observables having support over local regions or for example, about periodic orbits. The decay properties of corresponding time correlations functions are given by a analytic expression of the spectra of U which is expected to be valid for a much larger class of systems than that studied here. An explicit and general expression is also derived for the correction factor to the dynamical zeta functions occurring when analytic function spaces are not invariant under U.

  1. Importing statistical measures into Artemis enhances gene identification in the Leishmania genome project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDonagh Paul D

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Seattle Biomedical Research Institute (SBRI as part of the Leishmania Genome Network (LGN is sequencing chromosomes of the trypanosomatid protozoan species Leishmania major. At SBRI, chromosomal sequence is annotated using a combination of trained and untrained non-consensus gene-prediction algorithms with ARTEMIS, an annotation platform with rich and user-friendly interfaces. Results Here we describe a methodology used to import results from three different protein-coding gene-prediction algorithms (GLIMMER, TESTCODE and GENESCAN into the ARTEMIS sequence viewer and annotation tool. Comparison of these methods, along with the CODONUSAGE algorithm built into ARTEMIS, shows the importance of combining methods to more accurately annotate the L. major genomic sequence. Conclusion An improvised and powerful tool for gene prediction has been developed by importing data from widely-used algorithms into an existing annotation platform. This approach is especially fruitful in the Leishmania genome project where there is large proportion of novel genes requiring manual annotation.

  2. Dynamical and statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in a Mediterranean area

    KAUST Repository

    Pizzigalli, Claudia; Palatella, L.; Zampieri, M.; Lionello, P.; Miglietta, M.M.; Paradisi, P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present and discuss a comparison between statistical and regional climate modeling techniques for downscaling GCM prediction . The comparison is carried out over the “Capitanata” region, an area of agricultural interest in south

  3. Statistics of decay dynamics of quantum emitters in disordered photonic-crystal waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Javadi, Alisa; Garcia-Fernandez, Pedro David; Sapienza, Luca

    2014-01-01

    We present a statistical analysis of the spontaneous emission of quantum dots coupled to Anderson-localized cavities in disordered photonic-crystal waveguides.We observe an average Purcell factor of ∼ 5 with a maximum value of 24.......We present a statistical analysis of the spontaneous emission of quantum dots coupled to Anderson-localized cavities in disordered photonic-crystal waveguides.We observe an average Purcell factor of ∼ 5 with a maximum value of 24....

  4. Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnad Nasirzadeh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.

  5. Frog Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whole Frog Project and Virtual Frog Dissection Statistics wwwstats output for January 1 through duplicate or extraneous accesses. For example, in these statistics, while a POST requesting an image is as well. Note that this under-represents the bytes requested. Starting date for following statistics

  6. Examples of Department of Energy Successes for Remediation of Contaminated Groundwater: Permeable Reactive Barrier and Dynamic Underground Stripping ASTD Projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purdy, C.; Gerdes, K.; Aljayoushi, J.; Kaback, D.; Ivory, T.

    2002-01-01

    Since 1998, the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management has funded the Accelerated Site Technology Deployment (ASTD) Program to expedite deployment of alternative technologies that can save time and money for the environmental cleanup at DOE sites across the nation. The ASTD program has accelerated more than one hundred deployments of new technologies under 76 projects that focus on a broad spectrum of EM problems. More than 25 environmental restoration projects have been initiated to solve the following types of problems: characterization of the subsurface using chemical, radiological, geophysical, and statistical methods; treatment of groundwater contaminated with DNAPLs, metals, or radionuclides; and other projects such as landfill covers, purge water management systems, and treatment of explosives-contaminated soils. One of the major goals of the ASTD Program is to deploy a new technology or process at multiple DOE sites. ASTD projects are encouraged to identify subsequent deployments at other sites. Some of the projects that have successfully deployed technologies at multiple sites focusing on cleanup of contaminated groundwater include: Permeable Reactive Barriers (Monticello, Rocky Flats, and Kansas City), treating uranium and organics in groundwater; and Dynamic Underground Stripping (Portsmouth, and Savannah River), thermally treating DNAPL source zones. Each year more and more new technologies and approaches are being used at DOE sites due to the ASTD program. DOE sites are sharing their successes and communicating lessons learned so that the new technologies can replace the baseline or standard approaches at DOE sites, thus expediting cleanup and saving money

  7. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

  8. Kinematic and dynamic pair collision statistics of sedimenting inertial particles relevant to warm rain initiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, Bogdan; Parishani, Hossein; Ayala, Orlando; Wang, Lian-Ping; Grabowski, Wojciech W

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, direct numerical simulation (DNS) approach has become a reliable tool for studying turbulent collision-coalescence of cloud droplets relevant to warm rain development. It has been shown that small-scale turbulent motion can enhance the collision rate of droplets by either enhancing the relative velocity and collision efficiency or by inertia-induced droplet clustering. A hybrid DNS approach incorporating DNS of air turbulence, disturbance flows due to droplets, and droplet equation of motion has been developed to quantify these effects of air turbulence. Due to the computational complexity of the approach, a major challenge is to increase the range of scales or size of the computation domain so that all scales affecting droplet pair statistics are simulated. Here we discuss our on-going work in this direction by improving the parallel scalability of the code, and by studying the effect of large-scale forcing on pair statistics relevant to turbulent collision. New results at higher grid resolutions show a saturation of pair and collision statistics with increasing flow Reynolds number, for given Kolmogorov scales and small droplet sizes. Furthermore, we examine the orientation dependence of pair statistics which reflects an interesting coupling of gravity and droplet clustering.

  9. Characterizing dynamic hysteresis and fractal statistics of chaotic two-phase flow and application to fuel cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkholder, Michael B.; Litster, Shawn

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we analyze the stability of two-phase flow regimes and their transitions using chaotic and fractal statistics, and we report new measurements of dynamic two-phase pressure drop hysteresis that is related to flow regime stability and channel water content. Two-phase flow dynamics are relevant to a variety of real-world systems, and quantifying transient two-phase flow phenomena is important for efficient design. We recorded two-phase (air and water) pressure drops and flow images in a microchannel under both steady and transient conditions. Using Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents to characterize the steady-state pressure fluctuations, we develop a new, measurable regime identification criteria based on the dynamic stability of the two-phase pressure signal. We also applied a new experimental technique by continuously cycling the air flow rate to study dynamic hysteresis in two-phase pressure drops, which is separate from steady-state hysteresis and can be used to understand two-phase flow development time scales. Using recorded images of the two-phase flow, we show that the capacitive dynamic hysteresis is related to channel water content and flow regime stability. The mixed-wettability microchannel and in-channel water introduction used in this study simulate a polymer electrolyte fuel cell cathode air flow channel.

  10. Characterizing dynamic hysteresis and fractal statistics of chaotic two-phase flow and application to fuel cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burkholder, Michael B.; Litster, Shawn, E-mail: litster@andrew.cmu.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213 (United States)

    2016-05-15

    In this study, we analyze the stability of two-phase flow regimes and their transitions using chaotic and fractal statistics, and we report new measurements of dynamic two-phase pressure drop hysteresis that is related to flow regime stability and channel water content. Two-phase flow dynamics are relevant to a variety of real-world systems, and quantifying transient two-phase flow phenomena is important for efficient design. We recorded two-phase (air and water) pressure drops and flow images in a microchannel under both steady and transient conditions. Using Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents to characterize the steady-state pressure fluctuations, we develop a new, measurable regime identification criteria based on the dynamic stability of the two-phase pressure signal. We also applied a new experimental technique by continuously cycling the air flow rate to study dynamic hysteresis in two-phase pressure drops, which is separate from steady-state hysteresis and can be used to understand two-phase flow development time scales. Using recorded images of the two-phase flow, we show that the capacitive dynamic hysteresis is related to channel water content and flow regime stability. The mixed-wettability microchannel and in-channel water introduction used in this study simulate a polymer electrolyte fuel cell cathode air flow channel.

  11. Exploring the dynamics of ownership in community-oriented design projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Light, Ann; Hansen, Nicolai Brodersen; Halskov, Kim

    2013-01-01

    This paper contributes an exploration of ownership as a dynamic process in community-oriented projects. We use case study accounts of two design projects to consider participation in contexts where social structure is relevant to design outcomes. In studying these dynamics, we consider four aspec...... community groups in making internet radio podcasts to share insight. We examine the complexity of the social process involved and trace patterns of change, before concluding with pragmatic and ethical reasons for technology design to pay attention to ownership issues....

  12. Global Dynamical Systems Involving Generalized -Projection Operators and Set-Valued Perturbation in Banach Spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-zhi Zou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A new class of generalized dynamical systems involving generalized f-projection operators is introduced and studied in Banach spaces. By using the fixed-point theorem due to Nadler, the equilibrium points set of this class of generalized global dynamical systems is proved to be nonempty and closed under some suitable conditions. Moreover, the solutions set of the systems with set-valued perturbation is showed to be continuous with respect to the initial value.

  13. Statistics of energy levels and zero temperature dynamics for deterministic spin models with glassy behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Degli Esposti, M.; Giardinà, C.; Graffi, S.; Isola, S.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the zero-temperature dynamics for the infinite-range, non translation invariant one-dimensional spin model introduced by Marinari, Parisi and Ritort to generate glassy behaviour out of a deterministic interaction. It is argued that there can be a large number of metastable (i.e.,

  14. Investigation of statistical relationship between dynamic modulus and thermal strength of asphalt concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qadir, A.; Gular, M.

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic modulus is a performance indicator for asphalt concrete and is used to qualify asphalt mixtures based on stress-strain characteristics under repeated loading. Moreover, the low temperature cracking of asphalt concrete mixes are measured in terms of fracture strength and fracture temperature. Dynamic modulus test was selected as one of the simple performance tests in the AASHTO 2002 guidelines to rate mixtures according to permanent deformation performance. However, AASHTO 2002 guidelines is silent in relating dynamic modulus values to low temperature cracking, probably because of weak correlations reported between these two properties. The present study investigates the relation between these two properties under the influence of aggregate type and mix gradation. Mixtures were prepared with two types of aggregate and gradations, while maintaining the binder type and air voids constant. The mixtures were later tested for dynamic modulus and fracture strength using thermal stress restrained specimen test (TSRST). Results indicate that there exists a fair correlation between the thermal fracture strength and stiffness at a selected test temperature and frequency level. These correlations are highly dependent upon the type of aggregate and mix gradation. (author)

  15. A quality improvement project using statistical process control methods for type 2 diabetes control in a resource-limited setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, David; Douglas, Kate; Goldberg, Vera; Martinez, Boris; Garcia, Pablo; Arbour, MaryCatherine; Rohloff, Peter

    2017-08-01

    Quality improvement (QI) is a key strategy for improving diabetes care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study reports on a diabetes QI project in rural Guatemala whose primary aim was to improve glycemic control of a panel of adult diabetes patients. Formative research suggested multiple areas for programmatic improvement in ambulatory diabetes care. This project utilized the Model for Improvement and Agile Global Health, our organization's complementary healthcare implementation framework. A bundle of improvement activities were implemented at the home, clinic and institutional level. Control charts of mean hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) and proportion of patients meeting target HbA1C showed improvement as special cause variation was identified 3 months after the intervention began. Control charts for secondary process measures offered insights into the value of different components of the intervention. Intensity of home-based diabetes education emerged as an important driver of panel glycemic control. Diabetes QI work is feasible in resource-limited settings in LMICs and can improve glycemic control. Statistical process control charts are a promising methodology for use with panels or registries of diabetes patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  16. A New Class of Particle Filters for Random Dynamic Systems with Unknown Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Míguez

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, particle filtering has become a powerful tool for tracking signals and time-varying parameters of random dynamic systems. These methods require a mathematical representation of the dynamics of the system evolution, together with assumptions of probabilistic models. In this paper, we present a new class of particle filtering methods that do not assume explicit mathematical forms of the probability distributions of the noise in the system. As a consequence, the proposed techniques are simpler, more robust, and more flexible than standard particle filters. Apart from the theoretical development of specific methods in the new class, we provide computer simulation results that demonstrate the performance of the algorithms in the problem of autonomous positioning of a vehicle in a 2-dimensional space.

  17. Neocortical Dynamics at Multiple Scales: EEG Standing Waves, Statistical Mechanics, and Physical Analogs

    OpenAIRE

    Ingber, Lester; Nunez, Paul L.

    2010-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of scalp potentials (EEG) is apparently due to some combination of global and local processes with important top-down and bottom-up interactions across spatial scales. In treating global mechanisms, we stress the importance of myelinated axon propagation delays and periodic boundary conditions in the cortical-white matter system, which is topologically close to a spherical shell. By contrast, the proposed local mechanisms are multiscale interactions between cortical colum...

  18. Statistical study of plasma sheet dynamics using ISEE 1 and 2 energetic particle flux data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dandouras, J.; Reme, H.; Saint-Marc, A.; Sauvaud, J.A.; Parks, G.K.; Anderson, K.A.; Lin, R.P.

    1986-01-01

    During magnetospheric substorms, satellites embedded in the plasma sheet often detect transient dropouts of plasma and energetic particle fluxes, a phenomemon generally interpreted as indicating the exit of the satellite into the magnetospheric lobe due to a plasma sheet thinning. In order to determine the large-scale dynamics of the near-earth plasma sheet during substorms, three satellite years of ISEE 1 and 2 energetic particle flux data (1.5 and 6 keV), corresponding to 461 particle flux dropouts, have been analyzed. The principal results show that flux dropouts can be observed anywhere in the nightside plasma sheet, independent of the satellite's geocentric distance (for R>12R/sub E/), magnetic local time (except near the magnetospheric flanks) and estimated distance to the neutral sheet. Furthermore, flux dropouts can be observed for any combination of the AE index value and the satellite's distance to the neutral sheet, which shows that the plasma sheet is dynamic even during weak magnetospheric disturbances. Substorms during which the satellites, though situated in the plasma sheet, did not detect any flux dropout, have also been examined, and it is found that the plasma sheet thickness can locally remain unaffected by substorm development for AE index values up to at least 1000 nT. The predictions of the two major plasma sheet thinning models, i.e., the near-tail X-type magnetic neutral line formation model and the MHD rarefaction wave propagation model, are compared to the experimental results, and it is concluded that neither model can account for all of the observations; plasma sheet dynamics are more complex. Phenomenologically, this study suggests that multiple pinching of the plasma sheet and/or large-amplitude three-dimensional plasma sheet oscillations are important in plasma sheet dynamics

  19. Statistical macrodynamics of large dynamical systems. Case of a phase transition in oscillator communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Y.; Nishikawa, I.

    1987-01-01

    A model dynamical system with a great many degrees of freedom is proposed for which the critical condition for the onset of collective oscillations, the evolution of a suitably defined order parameter, and its fluctuations around steady states can be studied analytically. This is a rotator model appropriate for a large population of limit cycle oscillators. It is assumed that the natural frequencies of the oscillators are distributed and that each oscillator interacts with all the others uniformly. An exact self-consistent equation for the stationary amplitude of the collective oscillation is derived and is extended to a dynamical form. This dynamical extension is carried out near the transition point where the characteristic time scales of the order parameter and of the individual oscillators become well separated from each other. The macroscopic evolution equation thus obtained generally involves a fluctuating term whose irregular temporal variation comes from a deterministic torus motion of a subpopulation. The analysis of this equation reveals order parameter behavior qualitatively different from that in thermodynamic phase transitions, especially in that the critical fluctuations in the present system are extremely small

  20. Dynamic modeling of uncertainty in the planned values of investments in petrochemical and refining projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vianello, Juliano Melquiades; Costa, Leticia; Teixeira, José Paulo

    2014-01-01

    There is a large gap between the planned value of investment in a project and its financial implementation. This fact creates a mismatch between the planned and effectively achieved net present value (NPV) of the project. Considering the project portfolio of a company, this could even threaten your solvency in the future. Therefore, a quantitative-risk analysis that takes into account different possible scenarios for these values of investment is extremely important to measure statistically the real value of a project. The aim of this paper is to present the reasons for this mismatch between planned and executed investments and, from this study, obtain a suitable stochastic process to generate different scenarios for these investments in the oil industry. Although the results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, also called in the oil industry as downstream, the methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry. - Highlights: • We measure statistically the real value of an investment project. • We present the reasons for the mismatch between planned and executed investments. • We obtain a stochastic process to generate scenarios for oil industry investments. • Results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, downstream. • The methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry

  1. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  2. Dynamic simulation applied to the socio-environmental management in projects of concentrated infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz E, Mauricio; Pena Z, Gloria Elena

    2004-01-01

    This work presents a theoretical and methodological approach to system dynamics utilization to contribute in the comprehension and handle of complexly of management challenges what appears in design, construction and operation phases in concentrate infrastructure projects like as ports, big dams and industrial parks. The localization of this kind of projects generates socio environmental impacts in their influence zones, what requires a strategically management from enterprise owners, not only for to comply with current environmental laws but also ensure social viability of their projects

  3. Comparative validation of statistical and dynamical downscaling models on a dense grid in central Europe: temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan; Mikšovský, J.; Štěpánek, Petr; Belda, M.; Farda, Aleš; Chládová, Z.; Pišoft, P.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, 3-4 (2015), s. 533-553 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/2405; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric science * climatology * air pollution Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.433, year: 2015

  4. Statistical-dynamical downscaling of wind roses over the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svoboda, Jaroslav; Chládová, Zuzana; Hošek, Jiří; Pop, Lukáš

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 112, 3-4 (2013), s. 713-722 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420905 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : downscaling * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.742, year: 2013 http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00704-012-0759-y.pdf

  5. Andreev Bound States Formation and Quasiparticle Trapping in Quench Dynamics Revealed by Time-Dependent Counting Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souto, R Seoane; Martín-Rodero, A; Yeyati, A Levy

    2016-12-23

    We analyze the quantum quench dynamics in the formation of a phase-biased superconducting nanojunction. We find that in the absence of an external relaxation mechanism and for very general conditions the system gets trapped in a metastable state, corresponding to a nonequilibrium population of the Andreev bound states. The use of the time-dependent full counting statistics analysis allows us to extract information on the asymptotic population of even and odd many-body states, demonstrating that a universal behavior, dependent only on the Andreev state energy, is reached in the quantum point contact limit. These results shed light on recent experimental observations on quasiparticle trapping in superconducting atomic contacts.

  6. Real-Time Projection-Based Augmented Reality System for Dynamic Objects in the Performing Arts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewoon Lee

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the case study of applying projection-based augmented reality, especially for dynamic objects in live performing shows, such as plays, dancing, or musicals. Our study aims to project imagery correctly inside the silhouettes of flexible objects, in other words, live actors or the surface of actor’s costumes; the silhouette transforms its own shape frequently. To realize this work, we implemented a special projection system based on the real-time masking technique, that is to say real-time projection-based augmented reality system for dynamic objects in performing arts. We installed the sets on a stage for live performance, and rehearsed particular scenes of a musical. In live performance, using projection-based augmented reality technology enhances technical and theatrical aspects which were not possible with existing video projection techniques. The projected images on the surfaces of actor’s costume could not only express the particular scene of a performance more effectively, but also lead the audience to an extraordinary visual experience.

  7. Overpopulation of Omega; in pp collisions: a way to distinguish statistical hadronization from string dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleicher, M; Liu, F M; Keränen, A; Aichelin, J; Bass, S A; Becattini, F; Redlich, K; Werner, K

    2002-05-20

    The Omega/Omega ratio originating from string decays is predicted to be larger than unity in proton-proton interactions at SPS energies ( E(lab) = 160 GeV). The antiomega dominance increases with decreasing beam energy. This surprising behavior is caused by the combinatorics of quark-antiquark production in small and low-mass strings. Since this behavior is not found in a statistical description of hadron production in proton-proton collisions, it may serve as a key observable to probe the hadronization mechanism in such collisions.

  8. Overpopulation of $\\bar \\Omega$ in pp collisions a way to distinguish statistical hadronization from string dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bleicher, M; Keränen, A; Aichelin, Jörg; Bass, S A; Becattini, F; Redlich, Krzysztof; Werner, K

    2002-01-01

    The $\\bar{\\Omega}/\\Omega$ ratio originating from string decays is predicted to be larger than unity in proton proton interactions at SPS energies ($E_{\\rm lab}$=160 GeV). The anti-omega dominance increases with decreasing beam energy. This surprising behavior is caused by the combinatorics of quark-antiquark production in small and low-mass strings. Since this behavior is not found in a statistical description of hadron production in proton proton collisions, it may serve as a key observable to probe the hadronization mechanism in such collisions.

  9. Overpopulation of Ω in pp collisions: A way to distinguish statistical hadronization from string dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleicher, M.; Liu, F. M.; Aichelin, J.; Werner, K.; Keraenen, A.; Bass, S. A.; Becattini, F.; Redlich, K.

    2002-01-01

    The Ω/Ω ratio originating from string decays is predicted to be larger than unity in proton-proton interactions at SPS energies (E lab =160 GeV ). The antiomega dominance increases with decreasing beam energy. This surprising behavior is caused by the combinatorics of quark-antiquark production in small and low-mass strings. Since this behavior is not found in a statistical description of hadron production in proton-proton collisions, it may serve as a key observable to probe the hadronization mechanism in such collisions

  10. Exploring Protein Structure and Dynamics through a Project-Oriented Biochemistry Laboratory Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipchock, James M.; Ginther, Patrick S.; Douglas, Bonnie B.; Bird, Kelly E.; Loria, J. Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here, we present a 10-week project-oriented laboratory module designed to provide a course-based undergraduate research experience in biochemistry that emphasizes the importance of biomolecular structure and dynamics in enzyme function. This module explores the impact of mutagenesis on an important active site loop for a biomedically-relevant…

  11. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild

  12. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

  13. A unified treatment of dynamics and scattering in classical and quantum statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prugovecki, E.

    1978-01-01

    The common formal features of classical and quantum statistical mechanics are investigated at three separate levels: at the level of L 2 spaces of wave-packets on GAMMA-space, of Liouville spaces B 2 consisting of density operators constructed from such wave-packets, and of phase-space representation spaces P of GAMMA distribution functions. It is shown that at the last level the formal similarities become so outstanding that all key quantities in P-space, such as Liouville operators, Hamiltonian functions, position and momentum observables, etc., are represented by expressions which to the zeroth order in (h/2π) coincide in the classical and quantum case, and in some instances coincide completely. Scattering theory on the B 2 Liouville spaces takes on the same formal appearance for classical and quantum statistical mechanics, and to the zeroth order in (h/2π) it coincides in both cases. This makes possible the formulation of a classical approximation to quantum scattering, and of a computational scheme for determining rhosup(out) from rhosup(in) for successive order of (h/2π). (Auth.)

  14. Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro

    2018-01-01

    The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.

  15. Dynamic heterogeneity and conditional statistics of non-Gaussian temperature fluctuations in turbulent thermal convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaozhou; Wang, Yin; Tong, Penger

    2018-05-01

    Non-Gaussian fluctuations with an exponential tail in their probability density function (PDF) are often observed in nonequilibrium steady states (NESSs) and one does not understand why they appear so often. Turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection (RBC) is an example of such a NESS, in which the measured PDF P (δ T ) of temperature fluctuations δ T in the central region of the flow has a long exponential tail. Here we show that because of the dynamic heterogeneity in RBC, the exponential PDF is generated by a convolution of a set of dynamics modes conditioned on a constant local thermal dissipation rate ɛ . The conditional PDF G (δ T |ɛ ) of δ T under a constant ɛ is found to be of Gaussian form and its variance σT2 for different values of ɛ follows an exponential distribution. The convolution of the two distribution functions gives rise to the exponential PDF P (δ T ) . This work thus provides a physical mechanism of the observed exponential distribution of δ T in RBC and also sheds light on the origin of non-Gaussian fluctuations in other NESSs.

  16. How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Triet S; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

    2015-04-07

    It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix.

  17. How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Triet S.; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

    2015-01-01

    It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix

  18. Atmospheric statistical dynamic models. Model performance: the Lawrence Livermore Laboratoy Zonal Atmospheric Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Luther, F.M.

    1978-06-01

    Results from the zonal model indicate quite reasonable agreement with observation in terms of the parameters and processes that influence the radiation and energy balance calculations. The model produces zonal statistics similar to those from general circulation models, and has also been shown to produce similar responses in sensitivity studies. Further studies of model performance are planned, including: comparison with July data; comparison of temperature and moisture transport and wind fields for winter and summer months; and a tabulation of atmospheric energetics. Based on these preliminary performance studies, however, it appears that the zonal model can be used in conjunction with more complex models to help unravel the problems of understanding the processes governing present climate and climate change. As can be seen in the subsequent paper on model sensitivity studies, in addition to reduced cost of computation, the zonal model facilitates analysis of feedback mechanisms and simplifies analysis of the interactions between processes

  19. STATISTIC MODEL OF DYNAMIC DELAY AND DROPOUT ON CELLULAR DATA NETWORKED CONTROL SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUHAMMAD A. MURTI

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Delay and dropout are important parameters influence overall control performance in Networked Control System (NCS. The goal of this research is to find a model of delay and dropout of data communication link in the NCS. Experiments have been done in this research to a water level control of boiler tank as part of the NCS based on internet communication network using High Speed Packet Access (HSPA cellular technology. By this experiments have been obtained closed-loop system response as well as data delay and dropout of data packets. This research contributes on modeling of the NCS which is combination of controlled plant and data communication link. Another contribution is statistical model of delay and dropout on the NCS.

  20. DYNAMIC STABILITY OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: STATISTICALLY INCONCLUSIVE RESULTS FROM ENSEMBLE INTEGRATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeebe, Richard E., E-mail: zeebe@soest.hawaii.edu [School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, MSB 629, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Due to the chaotic nature of the solar system, the question of its long-term stability can only be answered in a statistical sense, for instance, based on numerical ensemble integrations of nearby orbits. Destabilization of the inner planets, leading to close encounters and/or collisions can be initiated through a large increase in Mercury's eccentricity, with a currently assumed likelihood of ∼1%. However, little is known at present about the robustness of this number. Here I report ensemble integrations of the full equations of motion of the eight planets and Pluto over 5 Gyr, including contributions from general relativity. The results show that different numerical algorithms lead to statistically different results for the evolution of Mercury's eccentricity (e{sub M}). For instance, starting at present initial conditions (e{sub M}≃0.21), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over 5 Gyr is, on average, significantly higher in symplectic ensemble integrations using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates and stricter error control. In contrast, starting at a possible future configuration (e{sub M}≃0.53), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over the subsequent 500 Myr is, on average, significantly lower using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates. For example, the probability for e{sub M} to increase beyond 0.53 over 500 Myr is >90% (Jacobi) versus only 40%-55% (heliocentric). This poses a dilemma because the physical evolution of the real system—and its probabilistic behavior—cannot depend on the coordinate system or the numerical algorithm chosen to describe it. Some tests of the numerical algorithms suggest that symplectic integrators using heliocentric coordinates underestimate the odds for destabilization of Mercury's orbit at high initial e{sub M}.

  1. Engaging Diverse Students in Statistical Inquiry: A Comparison of Learning Experiences and Outcomes of Under-Represented and Non-Underrepresented Students Enrolled in a Multidisciplinary Project-Based Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierker, Lisa; Alexander, Jalen; Cooper, Jennifer L.; Selya, Arielle; Rose, Jennifer; Dasgupta, Nilanjana

    2016-01-01

    Introductory statistics needs innovative, evidence-based teaching practices that support and engage diverse students. To evaluate the success of a multidisciplinary, project-based course, we compared experiences of under-represented (URM) and non-underrepresented students in 4 years of the course. While URM students considered the material more…

  2. The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

    2013-10-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

  3. Statistical State Dynamics Based Study of the Role of Nonlinearity in the Maintenance of Turbulence in Couette Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Brian; Ioannou, Petros; Nikolaidis, Marios-Andreas

    2017-11-01

    While linear non-normality underlies the mechanism of energy transfer from the externally driven flow to the perturbation field, nonlinearity is also known to play an essential role in sustaining turbulence. We report a study based on the statistical state dynamics of Couette flow turbulence with the goal of better understanding the role of nonlinearity in sustaining turbulence. The statistical state dynamics implementations used are ensemble closures at second order in a cumulant expansion of the Navier-Stokes equations in which the averaging operator is the streamwise mean. Two fundamentally non-normal mechanisms potentially contributing to maintaining the second cumulant are identified. These are essentially parametric perturbation growth arising from interaction of the perturbations with the fluctuating mean flow and transient growth of perturbations arising from nonlinear interaction between components of the perturbation field. By the method of selectively including these mechanisms parametric growth is found to maintain the perturbation field in the turbulent state while the more commonly invoked mechanism associated with transient growth of perturbations arising from scattering by nonlinear interaction is found to suppress perturbation variance. Funded by ERC Coturb Madrid Summer Program and NSF AGS-1246929.

  4. Detection of weak transitions in signal dynamics using recurrence time statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Gu Lingyun; Harris, J.G.; Principe, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    Signal detection in noisy and nonstationary environments is very challenging. In this Letter, we study why the two types of recurrence times [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83 (1999) 3178] may be very useful for detecting weak transitions in signal dynamics. We particularly emphasize that the recurrence times of the second type may be more powerful in detecting transitions with very low energy. These features are illustrated by studying a number of speech signals with fricatives and plosives. We have also shown that the recurrence times of the first type, nevertheless, has the distinguished feature of being more robust to the noise level and less sensitive to the parameter change of the algorithm. Since throughout our study, we have not explored any features unique to the speech signals, the results shown here may indicate that these tools may be useful in many different applications

  5. Molecular Dynamics Simulation and Statistics Analysis Reveals the Defense Response Mechanism in Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhichao; Zhao, Yunjie; Zeng, Chen; Computational Biophysics Lab Team

    As the main protein of the bacterial flagella, flagellin plays an important role in perception and defense response. The newly discovered locus, FLS2, is ubiquitously expressed. FLS2 encodes a putative receptor kinase and shares many homologies with some plant resistance genes and even with some components of immune system of mammals and insects. In Arabidopsis, FLS2 perception is achieved by the recognition of epitope flg22, which induces FLS2 heteromerization with BAK1 and finally the plant immunity. Here we use both analytical methods such as Direct Coupling Analysis (DCA) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) Simulations to get a better understanding of the defense mechanism of FLS2. This may facilitate a redesign of flg22 or de-novo design for desired specificity and potency to extend the immune properties of FLS2 to other important crops and vegetables.

  6. Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to

  7. A statistical-dynamical modeling approach for the simulation of local paleo proxy records using GCM output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Aakesson, O. [Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1998-08-01

    Recent proxy data obtained from ice core measurements, dendrochronology and valley glaciers provide important information on the evolution of the regional or local climate. General circulation models integrated over a long period of time could help to understand the (external and internal) forcing mechanisms of natural climate variability. For a systematic interpretation of in situ paleo proxy records, a combined method of dynamical and statistical modeling is proposed. Local 'paleo records' can be simulated from GCM output by first undertaking a model-consistent statistical downscaling and then using a process-based forward modeling approach to obtain the behavior of valley glaciers and the growth of trees under specific conditions. The simulated records can be compared to actual proxy records in order to investigate whether e.g. the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced by models and to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy records (with the main focus on the last millennium) can be represented. For statistical downscaling to local weather conditions, a multiple linear forward regression model is used. Daily sets of observed weather station data and various large-scale predictors at 7 pressure levels obtained from ECMWF reanalyses are used for development of the model. Daily data give the closest and most robust relationships due to the strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns. For some local variables, the performance of the model can be further increased by developing seasonal specific statistical relationships. The model is validated using both independent and restricted predictor data sets. The model is applied to a long integration of a mixed layer GCM experiment simulating pre-industrial climate variability. The dynamical-statistical local GCM output within a region around Nigardsbreen glacier, Norway is compared to nearby observed station data for the period 1868-1993. Patterns of observed

  8. Dynamically biased statistical model for the ortho/para conversion in the H2 + H3+ → H3+ + H2 reaction

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio

    2012-01-01

    In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007)10.1063/1.2430711]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constrain...

  9. A statistical model of macromolecules dynamics for Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitri Koroliouk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model to describe the mechanisms of biological macromolecules interactions. Our model consists of a discrete stationary random sequence given by a solution of difference stochastic equation, characterized by a drift predictive component and by a diffusion term. The relative statistical estimations are very simple and effective, promising to be a good tool for the mathematical description of collective biological reactions. This paper presents the mathematical model and its verification on a simulated data set, obtained on the basis of the well-known Stokes-Einsteinmodel. In particular, we considered several mix of particles of different diffusion coefficient, respectively: D1=10 mm2/sec and D2=100 mm2/sec. The parameters evaluated by this new mathematical model on simulated data show good estimation accuracy, in comparison with the prior parameters used in the simulations. Furthermore, when analyzing the data for the mix of particles with different diffusion coefficient, the proposed model parameters  (regression and  (square variance of the stochastic component have a good discriminative ability for the molar fraction determination.  In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model to describe the mechanisms of biological macromolecules interactions. Our model consists of a discrete stationary random sequence given by a solution of difference stochastic equation, characterized by a drift predictive component and by a diffusion term. The relative statistical estimations are very simple and effective, promising to be a good tool for mathematical description of collective biological reactions. This paper presents the mathematical model and its verification on simulated data set, obtained on the basis of the well-known Stokes-Einsteinmodel. In particular we considered several mix of particles of different diffusion coefficient, respectively: D1=10 mm2/sec and D2=100 mm2/sec. The parameters

  10. Using a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields: application to Belgium in the framework of the VOTES and MASC projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Beckers, Veronique; Debusscher, Bos; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow numerous other applications, leading to amelioration of some of their modules (e.g., evaluating sensitivity of the hydrological module to land surface changes) and developments (e.g., coupling with other models like agent-based models), to be used in ecosystem management and land use planning studies. It is in this dynamic context about DVMs that we have adapted the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) model. One of the main improvements is the implementation of a crop module, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields. We try to validate this module at different scales: - from the plot level, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network, such as Lonzée (Belgium) or other Western European sites (Grignon, Dijkgraaf,…), - to the country level, for which we compare the crop yield calculated by CARAIB to the crop yield statistics for Belgium and for different agricultural regions of the country. Another challenge for the CARAIB DVM was to deal with the landscape dynamics, which is not directly possible due to the lack of consideration of anthropogenic factors in the system. In the framework of the VOTES and the MASC projects, CARAIB is coupled with an agent-based model (ABM), representing the societal component of the system. This coupled module allows the use of climate and socio-economic scenarios, particularly interesting for studies which aim at ensuring a sustainable approach. This module has particularly been exploited in the VOTES project, where the objective was to provide a social, biophysical and economic assessment of the ecosystem services in

  11. Cascade statistics in the binary collision approximation and in full molecular dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hou, M.; Pan, Z.Y.

    1995-01-01

    The Binary Collision Approximation (BCA) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) are used to simulate low energy atomic collision cascades in solids. Results are compared and discussed on the example of copper and gold self irradiation. For MD, long range N-body potentials are built, similar to those deduced from the second moment semi-empirical tight binding model. The pair interaction contribution is splined to a Moliere screened Coulomb potential at small separation distances. The BCA calculations are performed with the MARLOWE program, using the same Moliere potential as for MD, and modelling the N-body contribution by a binding of the atoms to their equilibrium lattice sites. The scattering integrals are estimated by means of a 4 points Gauss-Mehler quadrature. In MD, the NVT equations of motion are integrated with a constant time step of 2 fs. For the NVE cascade simulations, the Newton equations of motion are solved with a dynamically adjusted time step, kept lower than 2 fs. The influence of the time step on the simulated trajectories is discussed. The mean number of moving atoms with total energy above threshold values ranging from 1 to 100 eV is estimated as a function of time over 300 fs both with MARLOWE and by MD. This estimate is repeated for external primary energies ranging from 250 eV to 1 keV. In the case of copper, the BCA results are found to be in remarkable agreement with MD over about 200 fs cascade development, provided the size of the crystallite used in MD is sufficiently large in order to account for the early mechanical response of the close environment. This agreement between the two methods is found to be the best when the binding energy of the target atoms as modelled in the BCA is adjusted to a value close to the cohesive energy. In the case of gold, the agreement between BCA and MD is reasonable and the results suggest the need of an accurate modelling of linear collision sequences in the BCA. (orig.)

  12. Statistical properties of the dense hydrogen plasma: An ab initio molecular dynamics investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohanoff, J.; Hansen, J.P.

    1995-12-01

    The hydrogen plasma is studied in the very high density (atomic and metallic) regime by extensive ab initio Molecular Dynamics simulations. Protons are treated classically, and electrons in the Born-Oppenheimer framework, within the local density approximation (LDA). Densities and temperatures studied fall within the strong coupling regime of the protons. We address the question of the validity of linear screening, and we find it to yield a reasonably good description up to r s approx. 0.5, but already too crude for r s = 1 (with r s = (3/4πρ) 1/3 the ion sphere radius). Finite-size and Brillouin zone sampling effects in metallic systems are studied and shown to be very delicate also in the fluid (liquid metal) phase. We analyse the low-temperature phase diagram and the melting transition. A remarkably fast decrease of the melting temperature with decreasing density is found, up to a point when it becomes comparable to the Fermi temperature of the protons. The possible vicinity of a triple point bcc-hcp(fcc)- liquid is discussed in the region of r s approx. 1.1 and T approx. 100 - 200K. The fluid phase is studied in detail for several temperatures. Proton-electron correlations show a weak temperature dependence, and proton-proton correlations exhibit a well-defined first coordination shell, thus characterizing fluid H in this regime as an atomic liquid. Diffusion coefficients are compared to the values for the one-component plasma. Vibrational densities of states (VDOS) show a plasmon renormalization due to electron screening, and the presence of a plasmon-coupled single-particle mode up to very high temperatures. Collective modes are studied through dynamical structure factors. In close relationship with the VDOS, the simulations reveal the remarkable persistent of a weakly damped high-frequency ion acoustic mode, even under conditions of strong electron screening. The possibility of using this observation as a diagnostic for the plasma phase transition to the

  13. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbugua, L N; Mwita, P N

    2013-01-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  14. Multiscale Support Vector Learning With Projection Operator Wavelet Kernel for Nonlinear Dynamical System Identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhao; Sun, Jing; Butts, Kenneth

    2016-02-03

    A giant leap has been made in the past couple of decades with the introduction of kernel-based learning as a mainstay for designing effective nonlinear computational learning algorithms. In view of the geometric interpretation of conditional expectation and the ubiquity of multiscale characteristics in highly complex nonlinear dynamic systems [1]-[3], this paper presents a new orthogonal projection operator wavelet kernel, aiming at developing an efficient computational learning approach for nonlinear dynamical system identification. In the framework of multiresolution analysis, the proposed projection operator wavelet kernel can fulfill the multiscale, multidimensional learning to estimate complex dependencies. The special advantage of the projection operator wavelet kernel developed in this paper lies in the fact that it has a closed-form expression, which greatly facilitates its application in kernel learning. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first closed-form orthogonal projection wavelet kernel reported in the literature. It provides a link between grid-based wavelets and mesh-free kernel-based methods. Simulation studies for identifying the parallel models of two benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems confirm its superiority in model accuracy and sparsity.

  15. SPECT acquisition using dynamic projections: a novel approach for data-driven respiratory gating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutton, B.F.; Hatton, R.L.; Yip, N.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Movement of the heart due to respiration has been previously demonstrated to produce potentially serious artefacts. On-line respiratory gating is difficult, as it requires a high level of patient cooperation. We demonstrate that use of dynamic acquisition of projections permits identification of the respiratory dynamics, allowing retrospective selection of data corresponding to a fixed point in the respiratory cycle. To demonstrate the feasibility of the technique a dynamic study was acquired just prior to myocardial per-fusion SPECT acquisition, using 5 frames/sec for 20 seconds (64*64 matrix) in anterior and lateral projections (using a dual-head right-angled configuration). The dynamic was processed a) by compressing frames in the transverse direction so as to illustrate time dependence, b) by plotting the centre of mass in the axial direction as a function of time. Respiratory motion was enhanced by use of temporal smoothing and intensity thresholding. In ten patients studied the cyclic pattern of motion due to respiratory dynamics was clearly visible in nine. Respiration typically resulted in around 1cm axial translation but in some individuals, movements as large as 3 cm were identified. The respiration rate ranged from 12-18 /min in agreement with independent observation of the patient's breathing pattern. These results suggest that retrospective respiratory gating is feasible without the need for any external respiratory monitoring device, provide that dynamic acquisition of SPECT projections is implemented. Correction for respiratory motion may also be feasible using this technique. Copyright (2002) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

  16. Final Project Report: Data Locality Enhancement of Dynamic Simulations for Exascale Computing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Xipeng [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2016-04-27

    The goal of this project is to develop a set of techniques and software tools to enhance the matching between memory accesses in dynamic simulations and the prominent features of modern and future manycore systems, alleviating the memory performance issues for exascale computing. In the first three years, the PI and his group have achieves some significant progress towards the goal, producing a set of novel techniques for improving the memory performance and data locality in manycore systems, yielding 18 conference and workshop papers and 4 journal papers and graduating 6 Ph.Ds. This report summarizes the research results of this project through that period.

  17. A classical trajectory study of the photodissociation of T1 acetaldehyde: The transition from impulsive to statistical dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, Keiran C.; Crittenden, Deborah L.; Kable, Scott H.; Jordan, Meredith J.T.

    2006-01-01

    Previous experimental and theoretical studies of the radical dissociation channel of T 1 acetaldehyde show conflicting behavior in the HCO and CH 3 product distributions. To resolve these conflicts, a full-dimensional potential-energy surface for the dissociation of CH 3 CHO into HCO and CH 3 fragments over the barrier on the T 1 surface is developed based on RO-CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(DZ) ab initio calculations. 20 000 classical trajectories are calculated on this surface at each of five initial excess energies, spanning the excitation energies used in previous experimental studies, and translational, vibrational, and rotational distributions of the radical products are determined. For excess energies near the dissociation threshold, both the HCO and CH 3 products are vibrationally cold; there is a small amount of HCO rotational excitation and little CH 3 rotational excitation, and the reaction energy is partitioned dominantly (>90% at threshold) into relative translational motion. Close to threshold the HCO and CH 3 rotational distributions are symmetrically shaped, resembling a Gaussian function, in agreement with observed experimental HCO rotational distributions. As the excess energy increases the calculated HCO and CH 3 rotational distributions are observed to change from a Gaussian shape at threshold to one more resembling a Boltzmann distribution, a behavior also seen by various experimental groups. Thus the distribution of energy in these rotational degrees of freedom is observed to change from nonstatistical to apparently statistical, as excess energy increases. As the energy above threshold increases all the internal and external degrees of freedom are observed to gain population at a similar rate, broadly consistent with equipartitioning of the available energy at the transition state. These observations generally support the practice of separating the reaction dynamics into two reservoirs: an impulsive reservoir, fed by the exit channel dynamics, and a

  18. Dynamic Staffing and Rescheduling in Software Project Management: A Hybrid Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yujia Ge

    Full Text Available Resource allocation could be influenced by various dynamic elements, such as the skills of engineers and the growth of skills, which requires managers to find an effective and efficient tool to support their staffing decision-making processes. Rescheduling happens commonly and frequently during the project execution. Control options have to be made when new resources are added or tasks are changed. In this paper we propose a software project staffing model considering dynamic elements of staff productivity with a Genetic Algorithm (GA and Hill Climbing (HC based optimizer. Since a newly generated reschedule dramatically different from the initial schedule could cause an obvious shifting cost increase, our rescheduling strategies consider both efficiency and stability. The results of real world case studies and extensive simulation experiments show that our proposed method is effective and could achieve comparable performance to other heuristic algorithms in most cases.

  19. Tracking single dynamic MEG dipole sources using the projected Extended Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yuchen; Swindlehurst, A Lee

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents two new algorithms based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for tracking the parameters of single dynamic magnetoencephalography (MEG) dipole sources. We assume a dynamic MEG dipole source with possibly both time-varying location and dipole orientation. The standard EKF-based tracking algorithm performs well under the assumption that the dipole source components vary in time as a Gauss-Markov process, provided that the background noise is temporally stationary. We propose a Projected-EKF algorithm that is adapted to a more forgiving condition where the background noise is temporally nonstationary, as well as a Projected-GLS-EKF algorithm that works even more universally, when the dipole components vary arbitrarily from one sample to the next.

  20. Numerical simulations of Jupiter’s moist convection layer: Structure and dynamics in statistically steady states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, K.; Nakajima, K.; Odaka, M.; Kuramoto, K.; Hayashi, Y.-Y.

    2014-02-01

    A series of long-term numerical simulations of moist convection in Jupiter’s atmosphere is performed in order to investigate the idealized characteristics of the vertical structure of multi-composition clouds and the convective motions associated with them, varying the deep abundances of condensable gases and the autoconversion time scale, the latter being one of the most questionable parameters in cloud microphysical parameterization. The simulations are conducted using a two-dimensional cloud resolving model that explicitly represents the convective motion and microphysics of the three cloud components, H2O, NH3, and NH4SH imposing a body cooling that substitutes the net radiative cooling. The results are qualitatively similar to those reported in Sugiyama et al. (Sugiyama, K. et al. [2011]. Intermittent cumulonimbus activity breaking the three-layer cloud structure of Jupiter. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13201. doi:10.1029/2011GL047878): stable layers associated with condensation and chemical reaction act as effective dynamical and compositional boundaries, intense cumulonimbus clouds develop with distinct temporal intermittency, and the active transport associated with these clouds results in the establishment of mean vertical profiles of condensates and condensable gases that are distinctly different from the hitherto accepted three-layered structure (e.g., Atreya, S.K., Romani, P.N. [1985]. Photochemistry and clouds of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. In: Recent Advances in Planetary Meteorology. Cambridge Univ. Press, London, pp. 17-68). Our results also demonstrate that the period of intermittent cloud activity is roughly proportional to the deep abundance of H2O gas. The autoconversion time scale does not strongly affect the results, except for the vertical profiles of the condensates. Changing the autoconversion time scale by a factor of 100 changes the intermittency period by a factor of less than two, although it causes a dramatic increase in the amount of

  1. Implementing a generic method for bias correction in statistical models using random effects, with spatial and population dynamics examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorson, James T.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    Statistical models play an important role in fisheries science when reconciling ecological theory with available data for wild populations or experimental studies. Ecological models increasingly include both fixed and random effects, and are often estimated using maximum likelihood techniques...... configurations of an age-structured population dynamics model. This simulation experiment shows that the epsilon-method and the existing bias-correction method perform equally well in data-rich contexts, but the epsilon-method is slightly less biased in data-poor contexts. We then apply the epsilon......-method to a spatial regression model when estimating an index of population abundance, and compare results with an alternative bias-correction algorithm that involves Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. This example shows that the epsilon-method leads to a biologically significant difference in estimates of average...

  2. Beam dynamics in THz dielectric-loaded waveguides for the AXSIS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinatier, T.; Assmann, R. W.; Dorda, U.; Lemery, F.; Marchetti, B.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate with ASTRA simulations the beam dynamics in dielectric-loaded waveguides driven by THz pulses, used as linac structure for the AXSIS project. We show that the bunch properties at the linac exit are very sensitive to the phase velocity of the THz pulse and are limited by the strong phase slippage of the bunch respective to it. We also show that the bunch properties are optimized when low frequencies (ERC Grant Agreement n. 609920.

  3. Information Flow Through Stages of Complex Engineering Design Projects: A Dynamic Network Analysis Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parraguez, Pedro; Eppinger, Steven D.; Maier, Anja

    2015-01-01

    The pattern of information flow through the network of interdependent design activities is thought to be an important determinant of engineering design process results. A previously unexplored aspect of such patterns relates to the temporal dynamics of information transfer between activities...... design process and thus support theory-building toward the evolution of information flows through systems engineering stages. Implications include guidance on how to analyze and predict information flows as well as better planning of information flows in engineering design projects according...

  4. Translation of an instrument. The US-Nordic Family Dynamics Nursing Research Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, M; Elander, G

    1992-01-01

    Translation of a research instrument questionnaire from English to another language is analyzed in relation to principles involved, procedures followed, and problems confronted by nurse researchers from the US-Nordic Family Dynamics Nursing Research Project. Of paramount importance in translation are translation equivalency, congruent value orientation, and careful use of colloquialisms. It is important to recognize that copyright guidelines apply in the translation of an instrument. Approaches to solving instrument translation problems are discussed.

  5. A nonlinear dynamics approach for incorporating wind-speed patterns into wind-power project evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind-the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.

  6. Statistical signal processing techniques for coherent transversal beam dynamics in synchrotrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alhumaidi, Mouhammad

    2015-03-04

    identifying and analyzing the betatron oscillation sourced from the kick based on its mixing and temporal patterns. The accelerator magnets can generate unwanted spurious linear and non-linear fields due to fabrication errors or aging. These error fields in the magnets can excite undesired resonances leading together with the space charge tune spread to long term beam losses and reducing dynamic aperture. Therefore, the knowledge of the linear and non-linear magnets errors in circular accelerator optics is very crucial for controlling and compensating resonances and their consequent beam losses and beam quality deterioration. This is indispensable, especially for high beam intensity machines. Fortunately, the relationship between the beam offset oscillation signals recorded at the BPMs is a manifestation of the accelerator optics, and can therefore be exploited in the determination of the optics linear and non-linear components. Thus, beam transversal oscillations can be excited deliberately for purposes of diagnostics operation of particle accelerators. In this thesis, we propose a novel method for detecting and estimating the optics lattice non-linear components located in-between the locations of two BPMs by analyzing the beam offset oscillation signals of a BPMs-triple containing these two BPMs. Depending on the non-linear components in-between the locations of the BPMs-triple, the relationship between the beam offsets follows a multivariate polynomial accordingly. After calculating the covariance matrix of the polynomial terms, the Generalized Total Least Squares method is used to find the model parameters, and thus the non-linear components. A bootstrap technique is used to detect the existing polynomial model orders by means of multiple hypothesis testing, and determine confidence intervals for the model parameters.

  7. The method and index of sustainability assessment of infrastructure projects based on system dynamics in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Zhou

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: As one of the most important overhead capital of urban economics and social development, the sustainable development of urban infrastructure is becoming a key issue of prosperous society growing. The purpose of this paper is to establish a basic model to analysis certain infrastructure project’s sustainable construction and operation. Design/methodology/approach: System dynamics is an effective stimulation method and tool to deal with such complex, dynamics, nonlinear systems, which could be used in analyzing and evaluating all aspects of infrastructure sustainability internally and externally. In this paper, the system is divided into four subsystems and 12 main impact indicators. Through setting the boundary and other basic hypothesis, this paper designs the basic causal loop diagrams and stock & flow diagrams to describe the relationship between variables and establish a quantifiable structure for the system. Findings: Adopting a sewerage treatment in China as a case to test our model, we could conclude that the model of internal sustainable subsystem is reasonable. However, this model is a basic model, and it need to be specific designed for the certain project due to the diversity of infrastructure types and the unique conditions of each projects. Originality/value: System Dynamics (SD is widely used in the study of sustainable development and has plentiful research achievements from macro perspective but few studies in the microcosmic project systems. This paper focuses on the unique characteristics of urban infrastructure in China and selects infrastructure project which is based on micro-system discussion. The model we designed has certain practical significance in policy setting, operation monitoring and adjustment of the urban projects with high rationality and accuracy.

  8. Multiphoton ionization as a probe of molecular photofragmentation: statistical and dynamical energy partitioning in the multiphoton dissociation of nitromethane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rockney, B.H.

    1982-01-01

    Multiphoton ionization (MPI) appears in its first use as a probe of laser-induced photofragmentation. Specifically, MPI here reveals the internal and translational energy content of the nascent fragments from the infrared multiphoton dissociation (MPD) of nitromethane (CH 3 NO 2 ). The apparatus for this work consists of a pulsed supersonic molecular beam crossed by two pulsed and focused lasers - a CO 2 laser to induce collision-free unimolecular dissociation of CH 3 NO 2 , and a tunable dye laser following immediately to ionize selectively one of the pair of dissociation fragments for detection by a mass spectrometer and particle multiplier. A computer simulation of each fragment's MPI spectrum, a series of four photon resonances to members of the npsigma/sub u/ Rydberg state of NO 2 and three photon resonances to two vibrational members of the #betta# 1 Rydberg state of CH 3 , aids in determining the fragment's internal energy content. The dye laser is delayed and its focus is traced through a small quarter circle centered at the focus of the CO 2 laser. The flight times of the fragments from the point of dissociation and their laboratory scattering angular distributions at fixed ionizing laser wavelength provide their center of mass recoil velocity distributions. The energy deposited in the fragments evidences a striking mixture of statistical and dynamical energy partitioning. The statistical RRKM theory of unimolecular decomposition accurately predicts the amount of internal energy found in the fragments

  9. Dynamic SPECT reconstruction from few projections: a sparsity enforced matrix factorization approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qiaoqiao; Zan, Yunlong; Huang, Qiu; Zhang, Xiaoqun

    2015-02-01

    The reconstruction of dynamic images from few projection data is a challenging problem, especially when noise is present and when the dynamic images are vary fast. In this paper, we propose a variational model, sparsity enforced matrix factorization (SEMF), based on low rank matrix factorization of unknown images and enforced sparsity constraints for representing both coefficients and bases. The proposed model is solved via an alternating iterative scheme for which each subproblem is convex and involves the efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The convergence of the overall alternating scheme for the nonconvex problem relies upon the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz property, recently studied by Attouch et al (2010 Math. Oper. Res. 35 438) and Attouch et al (2013 Math. Program. 137 91). Finally our proof-of-concept simulation on 2D dynamic images shows the advantage of the proposed method compared to conventional methods.

  10. A comprehensive investigation on static and dynamic friction coefficients of wheat grain with the adoption of statistical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafaei, S M; Kamgar, S

    2017-07-01

    This paper deals with studying and modeling static friction coefficient (SFC) and dynamic friction coefficient (DFC) of wheat grain as affected by several treatments. Significance of single effect (SE) and dual interaction effect (DIE) of treatments (moisture content and contact surface) on SFC and, SE, DIE, and triple interaction effect (TIE) of treatments (moisture content, contact surface and sliding velocity) on DFC were determined using statistical analysis methods. Multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was employed to predict SFC and DFC on different contact surfaces. Predictive ability of developed MLR models was evaluated using some statistical parameters (coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean relative deviation modulus (MRDM)). Results indicated that significant increasing DIE of treatments on SFC was 3.2 and 3 times greater than significant increasing SE of moisture content and contact surface, respectively. In case of DFC, the significant increasing TIE of treatments was 8.8, 3.7, and 8.9 times greater than SE of moisture content, contact surface, and sliding velocity, respectively. It was also found that the SE of contact surface on SFC was 1.1 times greater than that of moisture content and the SE of contact surface on DFC was 2.4 times greater than that of moisture content or sliding velocity. According to the reasonable average of statistical parameters ( R 2  = 0.955, RMSE = 0.01788 and MRDM = 3.152%), the SFC and DFC could be successfully predicted by suggested MLR models. Practically, it is recommended to apply the models for direct prediction of SFC and DFC, respective to each contact surface, based on moisture content and sliding velocity.

  11. Kinetic Analysis of Dynamic Positron Emission Tomography Data using Open-Source Image Processing and Statistical Inference Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawe, David; Hernández Fernández, Francisco R; O'Suilleabháin, Liam; Huang, Jian; Wolsztynski, Eric; O'Sullivan, Finbarr

    2012-05-01

    In dynamic mode, positron emission tomography (PET) can be used to track the evolution of injected radio-labelled molecules in living tissue. This is a powerful diagnostic imaging technique that provides a unique opportunity to probe the status of healthy and pathological tissue by examining how it processes substrates. The spatial aspect of PET is well established in the computational statistics literature. This article focuses on its temporal aspect. The interpretation of PET time-course data is complicated because the measured signal is a combination of vascular delivery and tissue retention effects. If the arterial time-course is known, the tissue time-course can typically be expressed in terms of a linear convolution between the arterial time-course and the tissue residue. In statistical terms, the residue function is essentially a survival function - a familiar life-time data construct. Kinetic analysis of PET data is concerned with estimation of the residue and associated functionals such as flow, flux, volume of distribution and transit time summaries. This review emphasises a nonparametric approach to the estimation of the residue based on a piecewise linear form. Rapid implementation of this by quadratic programming is described. The approach provides a reference for statistical assessment of widely used one- and two-compartmental model forms. We illustrate the method with data from two of the most well-established PET radiotracers, (15)O-H(2)O and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose, used for assessment of blood perfusion and glucose metabolism respectively. The presentation illustrates the use of two open-source tools, AMIDE and R, for PET scan manipulation and model inference.

  12. Structure of sheared and rotating turbulence: Multiscale statistics of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations and passive scalar dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobitz, Frank G; Schneider, Kai; Bos, Wouter J T; Farge, Marie

    2016-01-01

    The acceleration statistics of sheared and rotating homogeneous turbulence are studied using direct numerical simulation results. The statistical properties of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are considered together with the influence of the rotation to shear ratio, as well as the scale dependence of their statistics. The probability density functions (pdfs) of both Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations show a strong and similar dependence on the rotation to shear ratio. The variance and flatness of both accelerations are analyzed and the extreme values of the Eulerian acceleration are observed to be above those of the Lagrangian acceleration. For strong rotation it is observed that flatness yields values close to three, corresponding to Gaussian-like behavior, and for moderate and vanishing rotation the flatness increases. Furthermore, the Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are shown to be strongly correlated for strong rotation due to a reduced nonlinear term in this case. A wavelet-based scale-dependent analysis shows that the flatness of both Eulerian and Lagrangian accelerations increases as scale decreases, which provides evidence for intermittent behavior. For strong rotation the Eulerian acceleration is even more intermittent than the Lagrangian acceleration, while the opposite result is obtained for moderate rotation. Moreover, the dynamics of a passive scalar with gradient production in the direction of the mean velocity gradient is analyzed and the influence of the rotation to shear ratio is studied. Concerning the concentration of a passive scalar spread by the flow, the pdf of its Eulerian time rate of change presents higher extreme values than those of its Lagrangian time rate of change. This suggests that the Eulerian time rate of change of scalar concentration is mainly due to advection, while its Lagrangian counterpart is only due to gradient production and viscous dissipation.

  13. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  14. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  15. Evaluation of Project Based Learning in the Area of Manufacturing and Statistics in the Degree of Industrial Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buj-Corral, Irene; Marco-Almagro, Lluís; Riba, Alex; Vivancos-Calvet, Joan; Tort-Martorell, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    In the subject Project I in the second year of the Degree in Industrial Technology Engineering taught at the School of Industrial Engineering of Barcelona (ETSEIB), subgroups of 3-4 students within groups of 20 students develop a project along a semester. Results of 2 projects are presented related to manufacturing, measurement of parts and the…

  16. Analyzing the Watershed Dynamics project as an example of successful science and education partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzby, C. K.; Jona, K.

    2009-12-01

    The Watershed Dynamics project is a partnership between Northwestern University, the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science (CUAHSI), and the GLOBE Program (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment). The goal of the project is to develop inquiry-based educational materials that use authentic scientific data and analysis techniques to teach students about the watershed. The relationship between Northwestern, CUAHSI, and GLOBE allows each partner to contribute to the development of the project in the area of their expertise. Science researchers from CUAHSI share science content knowledge and data access through the development of their Hydrologic Information System (HIS). Curriculum developers at Northwestern write inquiry-based curriculum using GIS technology to access and analyze live data. The GLOBE Program is a worldwide hands-on, primary and secondary school-based science education program that provides teacher training opportunities to a network of teachers around the world. This partnership allows each partner to bring their area of expertise to the project and make the best use of one another's resources. The Watershed Dynamics project can serve as a model for future partnerships between the science and education communities. The Office of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Education Partnerships (OSEP) at Northwestern is a service organization that supports Northwestern researchers in developing proposals and implementing research projects that incorporate K-12 educational components, particularly in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). OSEP assists faculty with the development of sound plans for education and outreach that reflect current research on learning and educational reform and provides expertise in STEM education materials development, learning technologies, and professional development for K-12 teachers and facilitators in informal education institutions

  17. Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-04-01

    Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

  18. The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: Fifty-Six Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aegisdottir, Stefania; White, Michael J.; Spengler, Paul M.; Maugherman, Alan S.; Anderson, Linda A.; Cook, Robert S.; Nichols, Cassandra N.; Lampropoulos, Georgios K.; Walker, Blain S.; Cohen, Genna; Rush, Jeffrey D.

    2006-01-01

    Clinical predictions made by mental health practitioners are compared with those using statistical approaches. Sixty-seven studies were identified from a comprehensive search of 56 years of research; 92 effect sizes were derived from these studies. The overall effect of clinical versus statistical prediction showed a somewhat greater accuracy for…

  19. A Dynamic Intelligent Decision Approach to Dependency Modeling of Project Tasks in Complex Engineering System Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinggui Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex engineering system optimization usually involves multiple projects or tasks. On the one hand, dependency modeling among projects or tasks highlights structures in systems and their environments which can help to understand the implications of connectivity on different aspects of system performance and also assist in designing, optimizing, and maintaining complex systems. On the other hand, multiple projects or tasks are either happening at the same time or scheduled into a sequence in order to use common resources. In this paper, we propose a dynamic intelligent decision approach to dependency modeling of project tasks in complex engineering system optimization. The approach takes this decision process as a two-stage decision-making problem. In the first stage, a task clustering approach based on modularization is proposed so as to find out a suitable decomposition scheme for a large-scale project. In the second stage, according to the decomposition result, a discrete artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm inspired by the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybees is developed for the resource constrained multiproject scheduling problem. Finally, a certain case from an engineering design of a chemical processing system is utilized to help to understand the proposed approach.

  20. Adaptive digital fringe projection technique for high dynamic range three-dimensional shape measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui; Gao, Jian; Mei, Qing; He, Yunbo; Liu, Junxiu; Wang, Xingjin

    2016-04-04

    It is a challenge for any optical method to measure objects with a large range of reflectivity variation across the surface. Image saturation results in incorrect intensities in captured fringe pattern images, leading to phase and measurement errors. This paper presents a new adaptive digital fringe projection technique which avoids image saturation and has a high signal to noise ratio (SNR) in the three-dimensional (3-D) shape measurement of objects that has a large range of reflectivity variation across the surface. Compared to previous high dynamic range 3-D scan methods using many exposures and fringe pattern projections, which consumes a lot of time, the proposed technique uses only two preliminary steps of fringe pattern projection and image capture to generate the adapted fringe patterns, by adaptively adjusting the pixel-wise intensity of the projected fringe patterns based on the saturated pixels in the captured images of the surface being measured. For the bright regions due to high surface reflectivity and high illumination by the ambient light and surfaces interreflections, the projected intensity is reduced just to be low enough to avoid image saturation. Simultaneously, the maximum intensity of 255 is used for those dark regions with low surface reflectivity to maintain high SNR. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed technique can achieve higher 3-D measurement accuracy across a surface with a large range of reflectivity variation.

  1. Deviation rectification for dynamic measurement of rail wear based on coordinate sets projection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chao; Ma, Ziji; Li, Yanfu; Liu, Hongli; Zeng, Jiuzhen; Jin, Tan

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic measurement of rail wear using a laser imaging system suffers from random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor which cause distorted rail profiles. In this paper, a simple and effective method for rectifying profile deviation is presented to address this issue. There are two main steps: profile recognition and distortion calibration. According to the constant camera and projector parameters, efficient recognition of measured profiles is achieved by analyzing the geometric difference between normal profiles and distorted ones. For a distorted profile, by constructing coordinate sets projecting from it to the standard one on triple projecting primitives, including the rail head inner line, rail waist curve and rail jaw, iterative extrinsic camera parameter self-compensation is implemented. The distortion is calibrated by projecting the distorted profile onto the x – y plane of a measuring coordinate frame, which is parallel to the rail cross section, to eliminate the influence of random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor. As well as evaluating the implementation with comprehensive experiments, we also compare our method with other published works. The results exhibit the effectiveness and superiority of our method for the dynamic measurement of rail wear. (paper)

  2. Deviation rectification for dynamic measurement of rail wear based on coordinate sets projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Ma, Ziji; Li, Yanfu; Zeng, Jiuzhen; Jin, Tan; Liu, Hongli

    2017-10-01

    Dynamic measurement of rail wear using a laser imaging system suffers from random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor which cause distorted rail profiles. In this paper, a simple and effective method for rectifying profile deviation is presented to address this issue. There are two main steps: profile recognition and distortion calibration. According to the constant camera and projector parameters, efficient recognition of measured profiles is achieved by analyzing the geometric difference between normal profiles and distorted ones. For a distorted profile, by constructing coordinate sets projecting from it to the standard one on triple projecting primitives, including the rail head inner line, rail waist curve and rail jaw, iterative extrinsic camera parameter self-compensation is implemented. The distortion is calibrated by projecting the distorted profile onto the x-y plane of a measuring coordinate frame, which is parallel to the rail cross section, to eliminate the influence of random vibrations in the laser-based imaging sensor. As well as evaluating the implementation with comprehensive experiments, we also compare our method with other published works. The results exhibit the effectiveness and superiority of our method for the dynamic measurement of rail wear.

  3. Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

    2015-02-01

    The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

  4. An integrated ball projection technology for the study of dynamic interceptive actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, J A; Panchuk, D; Davids, K; North, J S; Fairweather, I; Maynard, I W

    2014-12-01

    Dynamic interceptive actions, such as catching or hitting a ball, are important task vehicles for investigating the complex relationship between cognition, perception, and action in performance environments. Representative experimental designs have become more important recently, highlighting the need for research methods to ensure that the coupling of information and movement is faithfully maintained. However, retaining representative design while ensuring systematic control of experimental variables is challenging, due to the traditional tendency to employ methods that typically involve use of reductionist motor responses such as buttonpressing or micromovements. Here, we outline the methodology behind a custom-built, integrated ball projection technology that allows images of advanced visual information to be synchronized with ball projection. This integrated technology supports the controlled presentation of visual information to participants while they perform dynamic interceptive actions. We discuss theoretical ideas behind the integration of hardware and software, along with practical issues resolved in technological design, and emphasize how the system can be integrated with emerging developments such as mixed reality environments. We conclude by considering future developments and applications of the integrated projection technology for research in human movement behaviors.

  5. Harmonic statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: eliazar@post.tau.ac.il

    2017-05-15

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

  6. Harmonic statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

  7. Descriptive statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nick, Todd G

    2007-01-01

    Statistics is defined by the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) thesaurus as the science and art of collecting, summarizing, and analyzing data that are subject to random variation. The two broad categories of summarizing and analyzing data are referred to as descriptive and inferential statistics. This chapter considers the science and art of summarizing data where descriptive statistics and graphics are used to display data. In this chapter, we discuss the fundamentals of descriptive statistics, including describing qualitative and quantitative variables. For describing quantitative variables, measures of location and spread, for example the standard deviation, are presented along with graphical presentations. We also discuss distributions of statistics, for example the variance, as well as the use of transformations. The concepts in this chapter are useful for uncovering patterns within the data and for effectively presenting the results of a project.

  8. Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

    2016-01-01

    statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the av-erage of the models that are able to...

  9. Research on Investment Risk Management of Chinese Prefabricated Construction Projects Based on a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Prefabricated construction, a new direction for the future development of the Chinese construction industry, can maximize the requirements of “green”. As a new form of green building, prefabricated construction is of particular interest. On account of the immature development of the green building market in China, the investment risk for prefabricated construction is higher than for traditional architecture. Hence, it is especially important to improve its investment risk identification and management. This study adopts system dynamics and builds a risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart, to comprehensively identify investment risks that projects in China may face and to process quantitative estimation of investment risk factors. Key factors influencing project investment risks are found, and corresponding measures are pointedly proposed. This paper may provide guidance and a reference for promoting the sound development of prefabricated construction in China.

  10. Dynamic and statistical thermodynamic properties of electrons in a thin quantum well in a parallel magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horing, Norman J Morgenstern; Glasser, M Lawrence; Dong Bing

    2006-01-01

    We carry out a theoretical analysis of quantum well electron dynamics in a parallel magnetic field of arbitrary strength, for a narrow quantum well. An explicit analytical closed-form solution is obtained for the retarded Green's function for Landau-quantized electrons in skipping states of motion between the narrow well walls, effectively involving in-plane translational motion, and hybridized with the zero-field lowest subband energy eigenstate. The dispersion relation for electron eigenstates is examined, and we find a plethora of such discrete Landau-quantized modes coupled to the subband state. In the weak field limit, we determine low magnetic field corrections to the lowest subband state energy associated with close-packing (phase averaging) of the Landau levels in the skipping states. At higher fields the discrete energy levels of the well lie between adjacent Landau levels, but they are not equally spaced, albeit undamped. Furthermore, we also examine the associated thermodynamic Green's function for Landau-quantized electrons in a thin quantum well in a parallel magnetic field and construct the (grand) thermodynamic potential (logarithm of the grand partition function) determining the statistical thermodynamics of the system

  11. Dynamic re-weighted total variation technique and statistic Iterative reconstruction method for x-ray CT metal artifact reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chengtao; Qiu, Bensheng; Zhang, Cheng; Ma, Changyu; Yuan, Gang; Li, Ming

    2017-07-01

    Over the years, the X-ray computed tomography (CT) has been successfully used in clinical diagnosis. However, when the body of the patient to be examined contains metal objects, the image reconstructed would be polluted by severe metal artifacts, which affect the doctor's diagnosis of disease. In this work, we proposed a dynamic re-weighted total variation (DRWTV) technique combined with the statistic iterative reconstruction (SIR) method to reduce the artifacts. The DRWTV method is based on the total variation (TV) and re-weighted total variation (RWTV) techniques, but it provides a sparser representation than TV and protects the tissue details better than RWTV. Besides, the DRWTV can suppress the artifacts and noise, and the SIR convergence speed is also accelerated. The performance of the algorithm is tested on both simulated phantom dataset and clinical dataset, which are the teeth phantom with two metal implants and the skull with three metal implants, respectively. The proposed algorithm (SIR-DRWTV) is compared with two traditional iterative algorithms, which are SIR and SIR constrained by RWTV regulation (SIR-RWTV). The results show that the proposed algorithm has the best performance in reducing metal artifacts and protecting tissue details.

  12. Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Sheridan Dodds

    Full Text Available Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms-the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853-2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

  13. Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Mitchell, Lewis; Reagan, Andrew J; Danforth, Christopher M

    2016-01-01

    Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms-the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853-2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

  14. Borehole induction logging for the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project LLNL gasoline spill site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, S.; Newmark, R.; Wilt, M.

    1994-01-01

    Borehole induction logs were acquired for the purpose of characterizing subsurface physical properties and monitoring steam clean up activities at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work was part of the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project's demonstrated clean up of a gasoline spin. The site is composed of unconsolidated days, sands and gravels which contain gasoline both above and below the water table. Induction logs were used to characterize lithology, to provide ''ground truth'' resistivity values for electrical resistance tomography (ERT), and to monitor the movement of an underground steam plume used to heat the soil and drive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the extraction wells

  15. Dynamic analysis of a new chaotic system with fractional order and its generalized projective synchronization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu Yu-Jun; Wang Xing-Yuan; Nian Fu-Zhong; Wang Ming-Jun

    2010-01-01

    Based on the stability theory of the fractional order system, the dynamic behaviours of a new fractional order system are investigated theoretically. The lowest order we found to have chaos in the new three-dimensional system is 2.46, and the period routes to chaos in the new fractional order system are also found. The effectiveness of our analysis results is further verified by numerical simulations and positive largest Lyapunov exponent. Furthermore, a nonlinear feedback controller is designed to achieve the generalized projective synchronization of the fractional order chaotic system, and its validity is proved by Laplace transformation theory. (general)

  16. NASA Space Geodesy Program: GSFC data analysis, 1992. Crustal Dynamics Project VLBI geodetic results, 1979 - 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. W.; Ma, C.; Caprette, D. S.

    1993-01-01

    The Goddard VLBI group reports the results of analyzing 1648 Mark 3 data sets acquired from fixed and mobile observing sites through the end of 1991, and available to the Crustal Dynamics Project. Two large solutions were used to obtain Earth rotation parameters, nutation offsets, radio source positions, site positions, site velocities, and baseline evolution. Site positions are tabulated on a yearly basis for 1979 to 1995, inclusive. Site velocities are presented in both geocentric Cartesian and topocentric coordinates. Baseline evolution is plotted for 200 baselines, and individual length determinations are presented for an additional 356 baselines. This report includes 155 quasar radio sources, 96 fixed stations and mobile sites, and 556 baselines.

  17. Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blanc, E.; Ceranna, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Marchetti, E.; Evers, L.G.; Kvaerna, T.; Laštovička, Jan; Eliasson, L.; Crosby, N. B.; Blanc-Benon, P.; Le Pichon, A.; Brachet, N.; Pilger, C.; Keckhut, P.; Assink, J.D.; Smets, P. S. M.; Lee, C. F.; Kero, J.; Šindelářová, Tereza; Kämpfer, N.; Rüfenacht, R.; Farges, T.; Millet, C.; Näsholm, S. P.; Gibbons, S. J.; Espy, P. J.; Hibbins, R. E.; Heinrich, P.; Ripepe, M.; Khaykin, S.; Mze, N.; Chum, Jaroslav

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 2 (2018), s. 171-225 ISSN 0169-3298 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 284387 - ARISE; European Commission(XE) 653980 - ARISE2 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Atmospheric dynamics * Middle atmosphere * Infrasound * Gravity waves * Volcanoes * Atmospheric disturbances * Extreme events * stratospheric temperature trends * total solar eclipse * wave momentum flux * natural infrasound * acoustic-waves * polar-low * model simulations * sudden warmings * Doppler lidar Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.413, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-017-9444-0

  18. Symmetry breaking in the opinion dynamics of a multi-group project organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhen-Tao; Zhou Jing; Chen Xing-Guang; Li Ping

    2012-01-01

    A bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics in multi-group projects is presented in which each group's opinion evolution is driven by two types of forces: (i) the group's cohesive force which tends to restore the opinion back towards the initial status because of its company culture; and (ii) nonlinear coupling forces with other groups which attempt to bring opinions closer due to collaboration willingness. Bifurcation analysis for the case of a two-group project shows a cusp catastrophe phenomenon and three distinctive evolutionary regimes, i.e., a deadlock regime, a convergence regime, and a bifurcation regime in opinion dynamics. The critical value of initial discord between the two groups is derived to discriminate which regime the opinion evolution belongs to. In the case of a three-group project with a symmetric social network, both bifurcation analysis and simulation results demonstrate that if each pair has a high initial discord, instead of symmetrically converging to consensus with the increase of coupling scale as expected by Gabbay's result (Physica A 378 (2007) p. 125 Fig. 5), project organization (PO) may be split into two distinct clusters because of the symmetry breaking phenomenon caused by pitchfork bifurcations, which urges that apart from divergence in participants' interests, nonlinear interaction can also make conflict inevitable in the PO. The effects of two asymmetric level parameters are tested in order to explore the ways of inducing dominant opinion in the whole PO. It is found that the strong influence imposed by a leader group with firm faith on the flexible and open minded follower groups can promote the formation of a positive dominant opinion in the PO

  19. Symmetry breaking in the opinion dynamics of a multi-group project organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhen-Tao; Zhou, Jing; Li, Ping; Chen, Xing-Guang

    2012-10-01

    A bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics in multi-group projects is presented in which each group's opinion evolution is driven by two types of forces: (i) the group's cohesive force which tends to restore the opinion back towards the initial status because of its company culture; and (ii) nonlinear coupling forces with other groups which attempt to bring opinions closer due to collaboration willingness. Bifurcation analysis for the case of a two-group project shows a cusp catastrophe phenomenon and three distinctive evolutionary regimes, i.e., a deadlock regime, a convergence regime, and a bifurcation regime in opinion dynamics. The critical value of initial discord between the two groups is derived to discriminate which regime the opinion evolution belongs to. In the case of a three-group project with a symmetric social network, both bifurcation analysis and simulation results demonstrate that if each pair has a high initial discord, instead of symmetrically converging to consensus with the increase of coupling scale as expected by Gabbay's result (Physica A 378 (2007) p. 125 Fig. 5), project organization (PO) may be split into two distinct clusters because of the symmetry breaking phenomenon caused by pitchfork bifurcations, which urges that apart from divergence in participants' interests, nonlinear interaction can also make conflict inevitable in the PO. The effects of two asymmetric level parameters are tested in order to explore the ways of inducing dominant opinion in the whole PO. It is found that the strong influence imposed by a leader group with firm faith on the flexible and open minded follower groups can promote the formation of a positive dominant opinion in the PO.

  20. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  1. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alunno-Bruscia, M.; v.d. Veer, H.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2011-01-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007-2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5. years' project,

  2. Computed Tomography Image Quality Evaluation of a New Iterative Reconstruction Algorithm in the Abdomen (Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction-V) a Comparison With Model-Based Iterative Reconstruction, Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction, and Filtered Back Projection Reconstructions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenberger, Martin H; Wagner-Bartak, Nicolaus A; Gupta, Shiva; Liu, Xinming; Yap, Ramon Q; Sun, Jia; Tamm, Eric P; Jensen, Corey T

    The purpose of this study was to compare abdominopelvic computed tomography images reconstructed with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction-V (ASIR-V) with model-based iterative reconstruction (Veo 3.0), ASIR, and filtered back projection (FBP). Abdominopelvic computed tomography scans for 36 patients (26 males and 10 females) were reconstructed using FBP, ASIR (80%), Veo 3.0, and ASIR-V (30%, 60%, 90%). Mean ± SD patient age was 32 ± 10 years with mean ± SD body mass index of 26.9 ± 4.4 kg/m. Images were reviewed by 2 independent readers in a blinded, randomized fashion. Hounsfield unit, noise, and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) values were calculated for each reconstruction algorithm for further comparison. Phantom evaluation of low-contrast detectability (LCD) and high-contrast resolution was performed. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction-V 30%, ASIR-V 60%, and ASIR 80% were generally superior qualitatively compared with ASIR-V 90%, Veo 3.0, and FBP (P ASIR-V 60% with respective CNR values of 5.54 ± 2.39, 8.78 ± 3.15, and 3.49 ± 1.77 (P ASIR 80% had the best and worst spatial resolution, respectively. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction-V 30% and ASIR-V 60% provided the best combination of qualitative and quantitative performance. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction 80% was equivalent qualitatively, but demonstrated inferior spatial resolution and LCD.

  3. Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, E.; Ceranna, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Marchetti, E.; Evers, L. G.; Kvaerna, T.; Lastovicka, J.; Eliasson, L.; Crosby, N. B.; Blanc-Benon, P.; Le Pichon, A.; Brachet, N.; Pilger, C.; Keckhut, P.; Assink, J. D.; Smets, P. S. M.; Lee, C. F.; Kero, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Kämpfer, N.; Rüfenacht, R.; Farges, T.; Millet, C.; Näsholm, S. P.; Gibbons, S. J.; Espy, P. J.; Hibbins, R. E.; Heinrich, P.; Ripepe, M.; Khaykin, S.; Mze, N.; Chum, J.

    2018-03-01

    This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.

  4. Scientific projects as a way to provide dynamism in small French remote colleges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Michel; Strajnic, Jean

    Scientific projects as a way to provide dynamism in small French remote colleges. Though 77% of the French population lives in towns, they are still quite a lot of people in rural areas. The educational model has favored the proximity colleges instead of forcing the students to make long journeys to get to the school, or to be in boarding schools. This means that grade 6-9 students can be in colleges as small as 100-150 children, specifically in remote areas, e.g. in the Alpes de Haute-Provence. Though small structures have many advantages in terms of discipline and proximity of the educational team with both the students and their parents, some "conservatism" may arise from the low turnover of the population. Children stay for long in the same village, and their access to culture, activities, knowledge of the outside can be restricted, inducing a loss of dynamism. In order to fight this tendency the Observatoire de Haute-Provence has started a program together with the regional educational authorities and the teacher teams proposing to work on scientific projects in astronomy, and soon in environmental sciences. Though the children and their teachers visit OHP, and scientists the college, the idea is that the teachers and the classmates become autonomous, the link being maintained via videoconferencing and electronic blackboard. This is based also on the presence of a prominent scientific institute in a rural district.

  5. Application of System Dynamics to Evaluate the Social and Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiep Nguyen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

  6. How Ontologies are Made: Studying the Hidden Social Dynamics Behind Collaborative Ontology Engineering Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmaier, Markus; Walk, Simon; Pöschko, Jan; Lamprecht, Daniel; Tudorache, Tania; Nyulas, Csongor; Musen, Mark A; Noy, Natalya F

    2013-05-01

    Traditionally, evaluation methods in the field of semantic technologies have focused on the end result of ontology engineering efforts, mainly, on evaluating ontologies and their corresponding qualities and characteristics. This focus has led to the development of a whole arsenal of ontology-evaluation techniques that investigate the quality of ontologies as a product . In this paper, we aim to shed light on the process of ontology engineering construction by introducing and applying a set of measures to analyze hidden social dynamics. We argue that especially for ontologies which are constructed collaboratively, understanding the social processes that have led to its construction is critical not only in understanding but consequently also in evaluating the ontology. With the work presented in this paper, we aim to expose the texture of collaborative ontology engineering processes that is otherwise left invisible. Using historical change-log data, we unveil qualitative differences and commonalities between different collaborative ontology engineering projects. Explaining and understanding these differences will help us to better comprehend the role and importance of social factors in collaborative ontology engineering projects. We hope that our analysis will spur a new line of evaluation techniques that view ontologies not as the static result of deliberations among domain experts, but as a dynamic, collaborative and iterative process that needs to be understood, evaluated and managed in itself. We believe that advances in this direction would help our community to expand the existing arsenal of ontology evaluation techniques towards more holistic approaches.

  7. How Ontologies are Made: Studying the Hidden Social Dynamics Behind Collaborative Ontology Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohmaier, Markus; Walk, Simon; Pöschko, Jan; Lamprecht, Daniel; Tudorache, Tania; Nyulas, Csongor; Musen, Mark A.; Noy, Natalya F.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, evaluation methods in the field of semantic technologies have focused on the end result of ontology engineering efforts, mainly, on evaluating ontologies and their corresponding qualities and characteristics. This focus has led to the development of a whole arsenal of ontology-evaluation techniques that investigate the quality of ontologies as a product. In this paper, we aim to shed light on the process of ontology engineering construction by introducing and applying a set of measures to analyze hidden social dynamics. We argue that especially for ontologies which are constructed collaboratively, understanding the social processes that have led to its construction is critical not only in understanding but consequently also in evaluating the ontology. With the work presented in this paper, we aim to expose the texture of collaborative ontology engineering processes that is otherwise left invisible. Using historical change-log data, we unveil qualitative differences and commonalities between different collaborative ontology engineering projects. Explaining and understanding these differences will help us to better comprehend the role and importance of social factors in collaborative ontology engineering projects. We hope that our analysis will spur a new line of evaluation techniques that view ontologies not as the static result of deliberations among domain experts, but as a dynamic, collaborative and iterative process that needs to be understood, evaluated and managed in itself. We believe that advances in this direction would help our community to expand the existing arsenal of ontology evaluation techniques towards more holistic approaches. PMID:24311994

  8. Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

    2011-04-01

    Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Meaningful Statistics in Professional Practices as a Bridge between Mathematics and Science: An Evaluation of a Design Research Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierdorp, Adri; Bakker, Arthur; van Maanen, Jan A.; Eijkelhof, Harrie M. C.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Creating coherence between school subjects mathematics and science and making these school subjects meaningful are still topical challenges. This study investigates how students make meaningful connections between mathematics, statistics, science and applications when they engage in a specially developed unit that is based on…

  10. Self-organization in irregular landscapes: Detecting autogenic interactions from field data using descriptive statistics and dynamical systems theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, L.; Watts, D.; Khurana, A.; Anderson, J. L.; Xu, C.; Merritts, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The classic signal of self-organization in nature is pattern formation. However, the interactions and feedbacks that organize depositional landscapes do not always result in regular or fractal patterns. How might we detect their existence and effects in these "irregular" landscapes? Emergent landscapes such as newly forming deltaic marshes or some restoration sites provide opportunities to study the autogenic processes that organize landscapes and their physical signatures. Here we describe a quest to understand autogenic vs. allogenic controls on landscape evolution in Big Spring Run, PA, a landscape undergoing restoration from bare-soil conditions to a target wet meadow landscape. The contemporary motivation for asking questions about autogenic vs. allogenic controls is to evaluate how important initial conditions or environmental controls may be for the attainment of management objectives. However, these questions can also inform interpretation of the sedimentary record by enabling researchers to separate signals that may have arisen through self-organization processes from those resulting from environmental perturbations. Over three years at Big Spring Run, we mapped the dynamic evolution of floodplain vegetation communities and distributions of abiotic variables and topography. We used principal component analysis and transition probability analysis to detect associative interactions between vegetation and geomorphic variables and convergent cross-mapping on lidar data to detect causal interactions between biomass and topography. Exploratory statistics revealed that plant communities with distinct morphologies exerted control on landscape evolution through stress divergence (i.e., channel initiation) and promoting the accumulation of fine sediment in channels. Together, these communities participated in a negative feedback that maintains low energy and multiple channels. Because of the spatially explicit nature of this feedback, causal interactions could not

  11. Time series evaluation of landscape dynamics using annual Landsat imagery and spatial statistical modeling: Evidence from the Phoenix metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen

    2017-06-01

    Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.

  12. Dynamics of participation and supply of services in the Hood River Conservation Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirst, E.; Goeltz, R.

    1986-07-01

    The Hood River Conservation Project (HRCP) is a major residential retrofit demonstration project. HRCP is funded by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and run by Pacific Power and Light Company. The project was conducted in the community of Hood River, Oregon, will cost $21 million, and will last for three years (mid-1983 through 1986). Installation of applicable retrofit measures was completed by the end of 1985; data collection, analysis, and report writing will continue through 1986. This report documents the extent to which households participated in HRCP. Differences between participants and eligible nonparticipants are examined. Similarly, differences among participants as a function of when they signed up for HRCP are analyzed. The report also examines the dynamics of program services (i.e., times between audit requests and audit, and between audit and installation of measures). These analyses are based on data from the roughly 3500 Hood River homes eligible for HRCP, 3189 of which received free home energy audits and 2988 of which received HRCP-financed retrofit measures.

  13. 3D digital dynamic management of maintenance projects for nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Baizhong; Luo Yalin; Fang Hao; Ma Li; Zhang Jie; Wang Ruobing; Xie Min

    2005-01-01

    The whole process for the application of digital plant technique in the equipment transport in reactor building and the dynamic management of the spatial arrangement in Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station was introduced in the paper. The establishment of 3D digital Daya Bay plant, and the method and procedure to apply it in the nuclear power plant maintenance project have been discussed. This project utilizes the outer database to preserve the maintenance status of equipments, and avoids the damage or changing of the original 3D final model. Based on the maintenance procedure, the spatial arrangement and schedule for the maintenance of nuclear power station have been simulated and optimized for the whole process. This technique can simulate and optimize the arrangement and spatial arrangement for maintenance in limited space. It has been applied successfully in the reactor vessel head replacement for Unit 2 of Daya Bay NPP to shorten the time for key routes and the total time of this project by 16 hours and 92.5 hours, respectively. (author)

  14. Projections of rising heat stress over the western Maritime Continent from dynamically downscaled climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Kang, Suchul; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2018-06-01

    This study assesses the future changes in heat stress in response to different emission scenarios over the western Maritime Continent. To better resolve the region-specific changes and to enhance the performance in simulating extreme events, the MIT Regional Climate Model with a 12-km horizontal resolution is used for the dynamical downscaling of three carefully selected CMIP5 global projections forced by two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax), which includes the effect of humidity, is examined to describe heat stress as regulated by future changes in temperature and humidity. An ensemble of projections reveals robust pattern in which a large increase in temperature is accompanied by a reduction in relative humidity but a significant increase in wet-bulb temperature. This increase in TWmax is relatively smaller over flat and coastal regions than that over mountainous region. However, the flat and coastal regions characterized by warm and humid present-day climate will be at risk even under modest increase in TWmax. The regional extent exposed to higher TWmax and the number of days on which TWmax exceeds its threshold value are projected to be much higher in RCP8.5 scenario than those in RCP4.5 scenario, thus highlighting the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the adverse impacts on human health and heat-related mortality.

  15. Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.

    2017-01-01

    The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

  16. GOE-TYPE ENERGY-LEVEL STATISTICS AND REGULAR CLASSICAL DYNAMICS FOR ROTATIONAL NUCLEI IN THE INTERACTING BOSON MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    PAAR, [No Value; VORKAPIC, D; DIERPERINK, AEL

    1992-01-01

    We study the fluctuation properties of 0+ levels in rotational nuclei using the framework of SU(3) dynamical symmetry of the interacting boson model. Computations of Poincare sections for SU(3) dynamical symmetry and its breaking confirm the expected relation between dynamical symmetry and classical

  17. Understanding Statistics - Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annual reports of U.S. cancer statistics including new cases, deaths, trends, survival, prevalence, lifetime risk, and progress toward Healthy People targets, plus statistical summaries for a number of common cancer types.

  18. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  19. A method of 2D/3D registration of a statistical mouse atlas with a planar X-ray projection and an optical photo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongkai; Stout, David B; Chatziioannou, Arion F

    2013-05-01

    The development of sophisticated and high throughput whole body small animal imaging technologies has created a need for improved image analysis and increased automation. The registration of a digital mouse atlas to individual images is a prerequisite for automated organ segmentation and uptake quantification. This paper presents a fully-automatic method for registering a statistical mouse atlas with individual subjects based on an anterior-posterior X-ray projection and a lateral optical photo of the mouse silhouette. The mouse atlas was trained as a statistical shape model based on 83 organ-segmented micro-CT images. For registration, a hierarchical approach is applied which first registers high contrast organs, and then estimates low contrast organs based on the registered high contrast organs. To register the high contrast organs, a 2D-registration-back-projection strategy is used that deforms the 3D atlas based on the 2D registrations of the atlas projections. For validation, this method was evaluated using 55 subjects of preclinical mouse studies. The results showed that this method can compensate for moderate variations of animal postures and organ anatomy. Two different metrics, the Dice coefficient and the average surface distance, were used to assess the registration accuracy of major organs. The Dice coefficients vary from 0.31 ± 0.16 for the spleen to 0.88 ± 0.03 for the whole body, and the average surface distance varies from 0.54 ± 0.06 mm for the lungs to 0.85 ± 0.10mm for the skin. The method was compared with a direct 3D deformation optimization (without 2D-registration-back-projection) and a single-subject atlas registration (instead of using the statistical atlas). The comparison revealed that the 2D-registration-back-projection strategy significantly improved the registration accuracy, and the use of the statistical mouse atlas led to more plausible organ shapes than the single-subject atlas. This method was also tested with shoulder

  20. Hawaii energy strategy project 2: Fossil energy review. Task 1: World and regional fossil energy dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breazeale, K. [ed.; Isaak, D.T.; Yamaguchi, N.; Fridley, D.; Johnson, C.; Long, S.

    1993-12-01

    This report in the Hawaii Energy Strategy Project examines world and regional fossil energy dynamics. The topics of the report include fossil energy characteristics, the world oil industry including reserves, production, consumption, exporters, importers, refining, products and their uses, history and trends in the global oil market and the Asia-Pacific market; world gas industry including reserves, production, consumption, exporters, importers, processing, gas-based products, international gas market and the emerging Asia-Pacific gas market; the world coal industry including reserves, classification and quality, utilization, transportation, pricing, world coal market, Asia-Pacific coal outlook, trends in Europe and the Americas; and environmental trends affecting fossil fuels. 132 figs., 46 tabs.

  1. Columnar Aerosol Properties from Sun-and-star Photometry: Statistical Comparisons and Day-to-night Dynamic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Daniel Perez; Lyamani, H.; Olmo, F. J.; Whiteman, D. N.; Alados-Arboledas, L.

    2012-01-01

    This work presents the first analysis of longterm correlative day-to-night columnar aerosol optical properties. The aim is to better understand columnar aerosol dynamic from ground-based observations, which are poorly studied until now. To this end we have used a combination of sun-and-star photometry measurements acquired in the city of Granada (37.16 N, 3.60 W, 680 ma.s.l.; South-East of Spain) from 2007 to 2010. For the whole study period, mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) around 440 nm (+/-standard deviation) is 0.18 +/- 0.10 and 0.19 +/- 0.11 for daytime and nighttime, respectively, while the mean Angstr¨om exponent (alpha ) is 1.0 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.4 for daytime and nighttime. The ANOVA statistical tests reveal that there are no significant differences between AOD and obtained at daytime and those at nighttime. Additionally, the mean daytime values of AOD and obtained during this study period are coherent with the values obtained in the surrounding AERONET stations. On the other hand, AOD around 440 nm present evident seasonal patterns characterised by large values in summer (mean value of 0.20 +/- 0.10 both at daytime and nighttime) and low values in winter (mean value of 0.15 +/- 0.09 at daytime and 0.17 +/- 0.10 at nighttime). The Angstr¨om exponents also present seasonal patterns, but with low values in summer (mean values of 0.8 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.4 at dayand night-time) and relatively large values in winter (mean values of 1.2 +/- 0.4 and 1.0 +/- 0.3 at daytime and nighttime). These seasonal patterns are explained by the differences in the meteorological conditions and by the differences in the strength of the aerosol sources. To take more insight about the changes in aerosol particles between day and night, the spectral differences of the Angstrom exponent as function of the Angstr¨om exponent are also studied. These analyses reveal increases of the fine mode radius and of the fine mode contribution to AOD during nighttime, being more

  2. Statistical study of defects caused by primary knock-on atoms in fcc Cu and bcc W using molecular dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warrier, M., E-mail: Manoj.Warrier@gmail.com [Computational Analysis Division, BARC, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, 530012 (India); Bhardwaj, U.; Hemani, H. [Computational Analysis Division, BARC, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, 530012 (India); Schneider, R. [Computational Science, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University, D-17489 Greifswald (Germany); Mutzke, A. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, D-17491 Greifswald (Germany); Valsakumar, M.C. [School for Engineering Sciences and Technology, University of Hyderabad, Gachibowli, Hyderabad, Telangana State, 500046 (India)

    2015-12-15

    We report on molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations carried out in fcc Cu and bcc W using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) code to study (i) the statistical variations in the number of interstitials and vacancies produced by energetic primary knock-on atoms (PKA) (0.1–5 keV) directed in random directions and (ii) the in-cascade cluster size distributions. It is seen that around 60–80 random directions have to be explored for the average number of displaced atoms to become steady in the case of fcc Cu, whereas for bcc W around 50–60 random directions need to be explored. The number of Frenkel pairs produced in the MD simulations are compared with that from the Binary Collision Approximation Monte Carlo (BCA-MC) code SDTRIM-SP and the results from the NRT model. It is seen that a proper choice of the damage energy, i.e. the energy required to create a stable interstitial, is essential for the BCA-MC results to match the MD results. On the computational front it is seen that in-situ processing saves the need to input/output (I/O) atomic position data of several tera-bytes when exploring a large number of random directions and there is no difference in run-time because the extra run-time in processing data is offset by the time saved in I/O. - Highlights: • MD simulations of collision cascades in 200 random directions explored in the energy range of 1–5 keV for fcc Cu and bcc W. • 60–80 random directions must be sampled for the number of displacements produced in a collision cascade to stabilize. • In-cascade clustering of interstitials and vacancies occur. • Direction averaged distribution of interstitials and vacancies around the origin of a PKA is presented. • Comparisons with MD indicate that the recoils produced in BCA-MC simulations be checked for recombination against all vacancies created.

  3. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Schwabl, Franz

    2006-01-01

    The completely revised new edition of the classical book on Statistical Mechanics covers the basic concepts of equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical physics. In addition to a deductive approach to equilibrium statistics and thermodynamics based on a single hypothesis - the form of the microcanonical density matrix - this book treats the most important elements of non-equilibrium phenomena. Intermediate calculations are presented in complete detail. Problems at the end of each chapter help students to consolidate their understanding of the material. Beyond the fundamentals, this text demonstrates the breadth of the field and its great variety of applications. Modern areas such as renormalization group theory, percolation, stochastic equations of motion and their applications to critical dynamics, kinetic theories, as well as fundamental considerations of irreversibility, are discussed. The text will be useful for advanced students of physics and other natural sciences; a basic knowledge of quantum mechan...

  4. The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydee Salmun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.

  5. Oman Drilling Project GT3 site survey: dynamics at the roof of an oceanic magma chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    France, L.; Nicollet, C.; Debret, B.; Lombard, M.; Berthod, C.; Ildefonse, B.; Koepke, J.

    2017-12-01

    Oman Drilling Project (OmanDP) aims at bringing new constraints on oceanic crust accretion and evolution by drilling Holes in the whole ophiolite section (mantle and crust). Among those, operations at GT3 in the Sumail massif drilled 400 m to sample the dike - gabbro transition that corresponds to the top (gabbros) and roof (dikes) of the axial magma chamber, an interface where hydrothermal and magmatic system interacts. Previous studies based on oceanic crust formed at present day fast-spreading ridges and preserved in ophiolites have highlighted that this interface is a dynamic horizon where the axial melt lens that top the main magma chamber can intrude, reheat, and partially assimilate previously hydrothermally altered roof rocks. Here we present the preliminary results obtained in GT3 area that have allowed the community to choose the drilling site. We provide a geological and structural map of the area, together with new petrographic and chemical constraints on the dynamics of the dike - gabbro transition. Our new results allow us to quantify the dynamic processes, and to propose that 1/ the intrusive contact of the varitextured gabbro within the dikes highlights the intrusion of the melt lens top in the dike rooting zone, 2/ both dikes and previously crystallized gabbros are reheated, and recrystallized by underlying melt lens dynamics (up to 1050°C, largely above the hydrous solidus temperature of altered dikes and gabbros), 3/ the reheating range can be > 200°C, 4/ the melt lens depth variations for a given ridge position is > 200m, 5/ the reheating stage and associated recrystallization within the dikes occurred under hydrous conditions, 6/ the reheating stage is recorded at the root zone of the sheeted dike complex by one of the highest stable conductive thermal gradient ever recorded on Earth ( 3°C/m), 7/ local chemical variations in recrystallized dikes and gabbros are highlighted and used to quantify crystallization and anatectic processes, and the

  6. Statistical modeling of CMIP5 projected changes in extreme wet spells over China in the late 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lianhua; Li, Yun; Jiang, Zhihong

    2017-08-01

    The observed intensity, frequency, and duration (IFD) of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold (the 95th percentile), and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model (WSM) and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961-2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile-quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.

  7. Strongly Coupled Fluid-Body Dynamics in the Immersed Boundary Projection Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chengjie; Eldredge, Jeff D.

    2014-11-01

    A computational algorithm is developed to simulate dynamically coupled interaction between fluid and rigid bodies. The basic computational framework is built upon a multi-domain immersed boundary method library, whirl, developed in previous work. In this library, the Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flow are solved on a uniform Cartesian grid by the vorticity-based immersed boundary projection method of Colonius and Taira. A solver for the dynamics of rigid-body systems is also included. The fluid and rigid-body solvers are strongly coupled with an iterative approach based on the block Gauss-Seidel method. Interfacial force, with its intimate connection with the Lagrange multipliers used in the fluid solver, is used as the primary iteration variable. Relaxation, developed from a stability analysis of the iterative scheme, is used to achieve convergence in only 2-4 iterations per time step. Several two- and three-dimensional numerical tests are conducted to validate and demonstrate the method, including flapping of flexible wings, self-excited oscillations of a system of linked plates and three-dimensional propulsion of flexible fluked tail. This work has been supported by AFOSR, under Award FA9550-11-1-0098.

  8. Dual-task functional exercises as an effective way to improve dynamic balance in persons with intellectual disability – continuation of the project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Mikołajczyk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Balance disorders are common in people with intellectual disability (ID. Aim of the research: The continuation of the project is aimed at finding out whether extension of the unstable surface dual-task functional exercises programme by another 12 weeks affects the level of dynamic balance in adolescents with ID and what those changes are like after the 8-week summer holidays. Material and methods: A total of 17 adolescents with ID aged 14–16 years (E performed functional exercises for another 12 weeks on unstable surfaces, and a group of 17 individuals with ID were the controls. Dynamic balance was assessed three times: after the first stage of the programme (test 2, after another 12 weeks (test 3, after the 8-week holiday (test 4. ALFA AC An International East stabilometric platform was used for measurements. Results : No statistical differences were discovered in group E, in dynamic balance assessment between test 2 and 3; however, the mean scores in group E, in test 3, were slightly better than in test 2, and notably better than in group C. No significant differences between test 3 and 4 were found in group E either. Conclusions : Extension of the intervention program helped to maintain improved dynamic balance. Discontinuation of the program for the period of 8 weeks resulted in decreased level of balance; however, it was still higher than at the beginning of the project. Dual-task functional exercises based on activities of daily living (ADLs and stimulation of righting reactions may enhance dynamic balance in individuals with ID, but it should be constantly stimulated.

  9. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Fürst

    2015-05-01

    projections, not from ice dynamics.

  10. Forest Management and the Evolution of Project Design in Dynamic Wildland Urban Interface Fire Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, S.

    2014-12-01

    The Truckee Ranger District on the Tahoe National Forest, in the heart of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, has a rich history of human activities. Native American influences, comstock-era logging, fire suppression, development, and recreation have all shaped the natural environment into what it is today. Like much of our national forests in California, forest conditions that have developed are generally much more homogenous and less resistant to disturbance from fire, insect, and disease than they might have been without the myriad of human influences. However, in order to improve the resiliency of our forests to stand replacing disturbances like high severity fire, while managing for integrated anthropomorphic values, it is imperative that management evolve to meet those dynamic needs. Recent advances in remote sensing and GIS allow land managers more access to forest information and can inform site specific prescriptions to change site specific undesirable conditions. It is ecologically and politically complex, yet our forests deserve that microscope. This particular presentation will focus on how the Truckee Ranger District began this process of incorporating several values, generated from stakeholder collaboration, into one project's goals and how those lessons learned informed their most recent project.

  11. Geophysical monitoring of active hydrologic processes as part of the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newmark, R.L.

    1992-05-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with University of California at Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, is conducting the Dynamic Underground Stripping Project (DUSP), an integrated project demonstrating the use of active thermal techniques to remove subsurface organic contamination. Complementary techniques address a number of environmental restoration problems: (1) steam flood strips organic contaminants from permeable zones, (2) electrical heating drives contaminants from less permeable zones into the more permeable zones from which they can be extracted, and (3) geophysical monitoring tracks and images the progress of the thermal fronts, providing feedback and control of the active processes. The first DUSP phase involved combined steam injection and vapor extraction in a ''clean'' site in the Livermore Valley consisting of unconsolidated alluvial interbeds of clays, sands and gravels. Steam passed rapidly through a high-permeability gravel unit, where in situ temperatures reached 117 degree C. An integrated program of geophysical monitoring was carried out at the Clean Site. We performed electrical resistance tomography (ERT), seismic tomography (crossborehole), induction tomography, passive seismic monitoring, a variety of different temperature measurement techniques and conventional geophysical well logging

  12. Modelling human behaviour in a bumper car ride using molecular dynamics tools: a student project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buendía, Jorge J.; Lopez, Hector; Sanchis, Guillem; Pardo, Luis Carlos

    2017-05-01

    Amusement parks are excellent laboratories of physics, not only to check physical laws, but also to investigate if those physical laws might also be applied to human behaviour. A group of Physics Engineering students from Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya has investigated if human behaviour, when driving bumper cars, can be modelled using tools borrowed from the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations, such as the radial and angular distribution functions. After acquiring several clips and obtaining the coordinates of the cars, those magnitudes are computed and analysed. Additionally, an analogous hard disks system is simulated to compare its distribution functions to those obtained from the cars’ coordinates. Despite the clear difference between bumper cars and a hard disk-like particle system, the obtained distribution functions are very similar. This suggests that there is no important effect of the individuals in the collective behaviour of the system in terms of structure. The research, performed by the students, has been undertaken in the frame of a motivational project designed to approach the scientific method for university students named FISIDABO. This project offers both the logistical and technical support to undertake the experiments designed by students at the amusement park of Barcelona TIBIDABO and accompanies them all along the scientific process.

  13. Southern Sierra Nevada Continental Dynamics Project: 1993 field observations of the NPE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, G.R. [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States); Malin, P.E. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States); Ruppert, S.D. [LLNL, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The Southern Sierra Nevada Continental Dynamics Project is a multidisciplinary, multi-institutional investigation of the cause of the uplift of the Sierra Nevada and its relationship to extension in the adjacent Basin and Range. A broad range of geologic and geophysical data have been collected as part of this project. These data include both passive and active seismic measurements, as well as gravity and magnetotelluric observations. Three seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection profiles were recorded: (1) a 325-km-long, north-south profile extending from just east of Mono Lake south across the Garlock fault, (2) a 400-km-long, east-west profile extending from Death Valley west across the Sierra Nevada to near the San Andreas fault, and (3) a 480-km-long, east-west profile deployed for the NPE. This profile extended from Beatty, Nevada, west across the Sierra Nevada along the previously recorded east-west profile and continued nearly to the Pacific Ocean. Up to 675 seismic recorders were deployed for each profile. These data are allowing us to develop refined models of the crustal and upper mantle structure of the southern Sierra Nevada and to evaluate alternative hypotheses for its uplift and for Basin and Range extension. They also provide insight into the propagation of regional phases across complex structures.

  14. Exploring protein structure and dynamics through a project-oriented biochemistry laboratory module.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipchock, James M; Ginther, Patrick S; Douglas, Bonnie B; Bird, Kelly E; Patrick Loria, J

    2017-09-01

    Here, we present a 10-week project-oriented laboratory module designed to provide a course-based undergraduate research experience in biochemistry that emphasizes the importance of biomolecular structure and dynamics in enzyme function. This module explores the impact of mutagenesis on an important active site loop for a biomedically-relevant human enzyme, protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B). Over the course of the semester students guide their own mutant of PTP1B from conception to characterization in a cost-effective manner and gain exposure to fundamental techniques in biochemistry, including site-directed DNA mutagenesis, bacterial recombinant protein expression, affinity column purification, protein quantitation, SDS-PAGE, and enzyme kinetics. This project-based approach allows an instructor to simulate a research setting and prepare students for productive research beyond the classroom. Potential modifications to expand or contract this module are also provided. © 2017 by The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, 45(5):403-410, 2017. © 2017 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

  15. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  16. Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

    2017-09-01

    Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The AquaDEB project: Physiological flexibility of aquatic animals analysed with a generic dynamic energy budget model (phase II)

    OpenAIRE

    Alunno-bruscia, Marianne; Van Der Veer, Henk; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.

    2011-01-01

    This second special issue of the Journal of Sea Research on development and applications of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory concludes the European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011). In this introductory paper we summarise the progress made during the running time of this 5 years’ project, present context for the papers in this volume and discuss future directions. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were (i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs ...

  18. The DACCIWA project: Dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    This contribution provides an overview of the EU-funded DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project. DACCIWA consists of 16 European and African research organisations and has strong links to universities, weather services and government organisations across West Africa. The project runs from 2010 to 2018 and is built around a major international field campaign in 2016. A key motivation for DACCIWA is the expected tripling of anthropogenic emissions in southern West Africa (SWA) between 2000 and 2030, whose impacts on human health, ecosystems, food security and the regional climate are largely unknown. An integrated assessment of this problem, which is mostly due to massive economic and population growth and urbanization, is challenging due to (a) a superposition of regional effects with global climate change, (b) a strong dependence on the variable West African monsoon, (c) incomplete scientific understanding of interactions between emissions, clouds, radiation, precipitation and regional circulations, and (d) a lack of observations. DACCIWA combines measurements in the field in SWA with extensive modelling activities and work on satellite data. In particular during the main DACCIWA field campaign in June-July 2016 high-quality observations of emissions, atmospheric composition and meteorological parameters were sampled. The campaign involved three research aircraft, three ground-based supersites, enhanced radiosonde launches, and intensive measurements at urban sites in Abidjan and Cotonou. These data have already been quality-controlled and will be freely available to the research community through a database at http://baobab.sedoo.fr/DACCIWA/ after the end of the project. The resulting benchmark dataset is currently combined with a wide range of modelling and satellite-based research activities that will ultimately allow (a) an assessment of the roles of relevant physical, chemical and biological processes, (b) an improvement

  19. The Role of Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics in Wetland Ecosystems of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of

  20. Modified Statistical Dynamical Diffraction Theory: A Novel Metrological Analysis Method for Partially Relaxed and Defective Carbon-doped Silicon and Silicon Germanium Heterostructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shreeman, Paul K.

    The statistical dynamical diffraction theory, which has been initially developed by late Kato remained in obscurity for many years due to intense and difficult mathematical treatment that proved to be quite challenging to implement and apply. With assistance of many authors in past (including Bushuev, Pavlov, Pungeov, and among the others), it became possible to implement this unique x-ray diffraction theory that combines the kinematical (ideally imperfect) and dynamical (the characteristically perfect diffraction) into a single system of equations controlled by two factors determined by long range order and correlation function within the structure. The first stage is completed by the publication (Shreeman and Matyi, J. Appl. Cryst., 43, 550 (2010)) demonstrating the functionality of this theory with new modifications hence called modified statistical dynamical diffraction theory (mSDDT). The foundation of the theory is also incorporated into this dissertation, and the next stage of testing the model against several ion-implanted SiGe materials has been published: (Shreeman and Matyi, physica status solidi (a)208(11), 2533-2538, 2011). The dissertation with all the previous results summarized, dives into comprehensive analysis of HRXRD analyses complete with several different types of reflections (symmetrical, asymmetrical and skewed geometry). The dynamical results (with almost no defects) are compared with well-known commercial software. The defective materials, to which commercially available modeling software falls short, is then characterized and discussed in depth. The results will exemplify the power of the novel approach in the modified statistical dynamical diffraction theory: Ability to detect and measure defective structures qualitatively and quantitatively. The analysis will be compared alongside with TEM data analysis for verification and confirmation. The application of this theory will accelerate the ability to quickly characterize the relaxed

  1. THE STUDY OF DYNAMICS OF CHANGE OF THE ABSCISSA AND ORDINATE OF THE POINT AT THE FAR MERIDIAN SIX DEGREE ZONE IN THE PROJECTION GAUSS-KRUGER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Mamedbekov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the dynamics of the abscissa and ordinate points in the far zone meridian six degree conformal Gauss-Kruger projection. Performed calculations and graphical representation of the classic formulas of conformal projection

  2. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  3. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  4. Femtosecond few- to single-electron point-projection microscopy for nanoscale dynamic imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Bainbridge

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Femtosecond electron microscopy produces real-space images of matter in a series of ultrafast snapshots. Pulses of electrons self-disperse under space-charge broadening, so without compression, the ideal operation mode is a single electron per pulse. Here, we demonstrate femtosecond single-electron point projection microscopy (fs-ePPM in a laser-pump fs-e-probe configuration. The electrons have an energy of only 150 eV and take tens of picoseconds to propagate to the object under study. Nonetheless, we achieve a temporal resolution with a standard deviation of 114 fs (equivalent to a full-width at half-maximum of 269 ± 40 fs combined with a spatial resolution of 100 nm, applied to a localized region of charge at the apex of a nanoscale metal tip induced by 30 fs 800 nm laser pulses at 50 kHz. These observations demonstrate real-space imaging of reversible processes, such as tracking charge distributions, is feasible whilst maintaining femtosecond resolution. Our findings could find application as a characterization method, which, depending on geometry, could resolve tens of femtoseconds and tens of nanometres. Dynamically imaging electric and magnetic fields and charge distributions on sub-micron length scales opens new avenues of ultrafast dynamics. Furthermore, through the use of active compression, such pulses are an ideal seed for few-femtosecond to attosecond imaging applications which will access sub-optical cycle processes in nanoplasmonics.

  5. Dynamics of the middle atmosphere as observed by the ARISE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, E.

    2015-12-01

    It has been strongly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate all the way to the Earth's surface. A key part of this coupling occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves. However, limited observations prevent to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The main challenge of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe) project is to combine existing national and international observation networks including: the International infrasound monitoring system developed for the CTBT (Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) verification, the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes) lidar network, European observation infrastructures at mid latitudes (OHP observatory), tropics (Maïdo observatory), high latitudes (ALOMAR and EISCAT), infrasound stations which form a dense European network and satellites. The ARISE network is unique by its coverage (polar to equatorial regions in the European longitude sector), its altitude range (from troposphere to mesosphere and ionosphere) and the involved scales both in time (from seconds to tens of years) and space (from tens of meters to thousands of kilometers). Advanced data products are produced with the scope to assimilate data in the Weather Prediction models to improve future forecasts over weeks and seasonal time scales. ARISE observations are especially relevant for the monitoring of extreme events such as thunderstorms, volcanoes, meteors and at larger scales, deep convection and stratospheric warming events for physical processes description and study of long term evolution with climate change. Among the applications, ARISE fosters integration of innovative methods for remote detection of non-instrumented volcanoes including distant eruption characterization to provide notifications with reliable confidence indices to the

  6. The KTOI Ecosystem Project Relational Database : a Report Prepared by Statistical Consulting Services for KTOI Describing the Key Components and Specifications of the KTOI Relational Database.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafii, Bahman [Statistical Consulting Services

    2009-09-24

    with the ability to upload, download, edit, and search data remotely, creating a dynamic system that is continually updated with the most recent information. At the same time, data are protected through user access restrictions, by implementing user profiles and password protected security. This accessibility could be set to any combination of read/write/edit abilities from an administrator capacity with full access to all data, to a highly restricted public access capability limited to general project information. Generation of customized summary reports and basic graphical routines could also be obtained through a Web-based interference. Using these types of features, users could produce summary tables, track trends of specified response variables over time or location, and compare results from various disciplines. Exploration of data in this manner can help users to better define and clarify their research goals and provide a means of integrating various aspects of a larger research project.

  7. Intuitionistic Trapezoidal Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Based on Prospect Choquet Integral Operator and Grey Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahang Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In consideration of the interaction among attributes and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude, this paper proposes an intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and prospect theory. With respect to a multiattribute group decision-making problem, the prospect value functions of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are aggregated by the proposed operator; then a grey relation-projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is developed to obtain the ranking of alternatives; the firefly algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of projection for obtaining the best projection direction of grey correlation projection values, and the grey correlation projection values are evaluated, which are applied to classify, rank, and prefer the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.

  8. Accounting for dynamics of mean precipitation in drought projections: A case study of Brazil for the 2050 and 2070 periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mpelasoka, Freddie; Awange, Joseph L; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz

    2018-05-01

    Changes in drought around the globe are among the most daunting potential effects of climate change. However, changes in droughts are often not well distinguished from changes in aridity levels. As drought constitutes conditions of aridity, the projected declines in mean precipitation tend to override changes in drought. This results in projections of more dire changes in drought than ever. The overestimate of changes can be attributed to the use of 'static' normal precipitation in the derivation of drought events. The failure in distinguishing drought from aridity is a conceptual problem of concern, particularly to drought policymakers. Given that the key objective of drought policies is to determine drought conditions, which are rare and so protracted that they are beyond the scope of normal risk management, for interventions. The main objective of this Case Study of Brazil is to demonstrate the differences between projections of changes in drought based on 'static' and '30-year dynamic' precipitation normal conditions. First we demonstrate that the 'static' based projections suggest 4-fold changes in the probability of drought-year occurrences against changes by the dynamic normal precipitation. The 'static-normal mean precipitation' based projections tend to be monotonically increasing in magnitude, and were arguably considered unrealistic. Based on the '30-year dynamic' normal precipitation conditions, the 13-member GCM ensemble median projection estimates of changes for 2050 under rcp4.5 1 and rcp8.5 2 suggest: (i) Significant differences between changes associated with rcp4.5 and rcp8.5, and are more noticeable for droughts at long than short timescales in the 2070; (ii) Overall, the results demonstrate more realistic projections of changes in drought characteristics over Brazil than previous projections based on 'static' normal precipitation conditions. However, the uncertainty of response of droughts to climate change in CMIP5 simulations is still large

  9. Advances in Statistical Control, Algebraic Systems Theory, and Dynamic Systems Characteristics A Tribute to Michael K Sain

    CERN Document Server

    Won, Chang-Hee; Michel, Anthony N

    2008-01-01

    This volume - dedicated to Michael K. Sain on the occasion of his seventieth birthday - is a collection of chapters covering recent advances in stochastic optimal control theory and algebraic systems theory. Written by experts in their respective fields, the chapters are thematically organized into four parts: Part I focuses on statistical control theory, where the cost function is viewed as a random variable and performance is shaped through cost cumulants. In this respect, statistical control generalizes linear-quadratic-Gaussian and H-infinity control. Part II addresses algebraic systems th

  10. Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengli; Liu, Shuguang; Liu, Jinxun; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia; Davis, Brian; Sohl, Terry L; Hawbaker, Todd J; Sleeter, Ben; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting. The three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m 2 in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m 2 in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m 2 /year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m 2 /year in 2006 to 310 gC/m 2 /year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m 2 /year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m 2 /year during 2006-2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006-2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks. The GYE is a carbon sink during 2006-2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m 2 , which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m 2 , and thus is not significant.

  11. Generic features of the dynamics of complex open quantum systems: statistical approach based on averages over the unitary group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gessner, Manuel; Breuer, Heinz-Peter

    2013-04-01

    We obtain exact analytic expressions for a class of functions expressed as integrals over the Haar measure of the unitary group in d dimensions. Based on these general mathematical results, we investigate generic dynamical properties of complex open quantum systems, employing arguments from ensemble theory. We further generalize these results to arbitrary eigenvalue distributions, allowing a detailed comparison of typical regular and chaotic systems with the help of concepts from random matrix theory. To illustrate the physical relevance and the general applicability of our results we present a series of examples related to the fields of open quantum systems and nonequilibrium quantum thermodynamics. These include the effect of initial correlations, the average quantum dynamical maps, the generic dynamics of system-environment pure state entanglement and, finally, the equilibration of generic open and closed quantum systems.

  12. GBRN/DOE Project: Dynamic enhanced recovery technologies. Quarterly technical report, January 1994--March 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R.N.

    1994-04-15

    Global Basins Research Network will perform a field demonstration of their ``Dynamic Enhanced Recovery Technology`` to test the concept that the growth faults in EI-330 field are conduits through which producing reservoirs are charged and that enhanced production can be developed by producing directly from the fault zone. The site, operated by Penzoil, is located in 250 feet of water the productive depth intervals include 4000 to 9000 feet. Previous work, which incorporated pressure, temperature, fluid flow, heat flow, seismic, production, and well log data, indicated active fluid flow along fault zones. The field demonstration will be accomplished by drilling and production test of growth fault systems associated with the EI-330 field. The project utilizes advanced 3-D seismic analysis, geochemical studies, structural and stratigraphic reservoir characterization, reservoir simulation, and compact visualization systems. The quarterly progress reports contains accomplishments to date for the following tasks: Management start-up; database management; field and demonstration equipment; reservoir characterization, modeling; geochemistry; and data integration.

  13. The impact of CFD on development test facilities - A National Research Council projection. [computational fluid dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korkegi, R. H.

    1983-01-01

    The results of a National Research Council study on the effect that advances in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) will have on conventional aeronautical ground testing are reported. Current CFD capabilities include the depiction of linearized inviscid flows and a boundary layer, initial use of Euler coordinates using supercomputers to automatically generate a grid, research and development on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations, and preliminary research on solutions to the full N-S equations. Improvements in the range of CFD usage is dependent on the development of more powerful supercomputers, exceeding even the projected abilities of the NASA Numerical Aerodynamic Simulator (1 BFLOP/sec). Full representation of the Re-averaged N-S equations will require over one million grid points, a computing level predicted to be available in 15 yr. Present capabilities allow identification of data anomalies, confirmation of data accuracy, and adequateness of model design in wind tunnel trials. Account can be taken of the wall effects and the Re in any flight regime during simulation. CFD can actually be more accurate than instrumented tests, since all points in a flow can be modeled with CFD, while they cannot all be monitored with instrumentation in a wind tunnel.

  14. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.

    2017-01-01

    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  15. THE DYNAMICS OF PROJECT-BASED LEARNING EXTENSION COURSES: THE “LABORATORY OF SOCIAL PROJECTS” CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao Alberto Arantes do Amaral

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this case study we discuss the dynamics that drive a free-of-charge project-based learning extension course. We discuss the lessons learned in the course, “Laboratory of Social Projects.” The course aimed to teach project management skills to the participants. It was conducted from August to November of 2015, at Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp, Osasco Campus, Brazil. The course had 72 participants (41 community members and 31 university students. The participants worked in teams of four members (on average and developed 13 projects on behalf of eight NGOs that help people in need. In our research, we followed a mixed methods approach, using unstructured questionnaires and project reports as sources of information. We made use of system thinking analysis to reveal the dynamics that unfolded during the course. Our main findings are: 1 free-of-charge extension courses can be much more challenging to manage than traditional courses; the bureaucracy of getting the university’s approval and problems related to dropouts are issues to consider; 2 the workload of the professors involved can be substantially higher than the workload of similar regular courses; 3 the use of project-based learning techniques can be very effective; 4 the courses can provide a very rich experience to the participants, promoting intense knowledge-sharing among all involved.

  16. A Model to Investigate the Effect of Work Ethic Culture on Dynamics of Rework in Management of Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Kiani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to investigate the effect of work ethic culture on rework in construction projects through a review of literature, surveys, and interviews with project managers. The main research question is what mechanisms can project manager use to balance the costs of personnel training, financial and language incentives, and implementation costs to finish the project with more profit and less rework. In this regard, modelling and data analysis is done using System Dynamics methodology. The results show that by considering work ethic, rework in the project is reduced from 46 % to 39 %. However, the project has been completed with 10 % lower cost and 26 % lower variance. Integrating the issue of rework with the culture of work ethic in the field of project management by at least one exogenous parameter has been studied, while in this study qualitative parameters have been converted to quantitative parameters using fuzzy inference system. The change in management approach to the issue of work ethics and the formulation of human resource strategies of large projects by human resource managers is one of the applications of this study.

  17. The shifting dynamics of social roles and project ownership over the lifecycle of a community-based participatory research project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsberg, Jon; Macridis, Soultana; Garcia Bengoechea, Enrique; Macaulay, Ann C; Moore, Spencer

    2017-06-01

    . Community based participatory research (CBPR) is often initiated by academic researchers, yet relies on meaningful community engagement and ownership to have lasting impact. Little is understood about how ownership shifts from academic to community partners. . We examined a CBPR project over its life course and asked: what does the evolution of ownership look like from project initiation by an academic (non-community) champion (T1); to maturation-when the intervention is ready to be deployed (T2); to independence-the time when the original champion steps aside (T3); and finally, to its maintenance-when the community has had an opportunity to function independently of the original academic champion (T4)? . Using sociometric (whole network) social network analysis, knowledge leadership was measured using 'in-degree centrality'. Stakeholder network structure was measured using 'centralisation' and 'core-periphery analysis'. Friedman rank sum test was used to measure change in actor roles over time from T1 to T4. . Project stakeholder roles were observed to shift significantly (P project maintenance (T4). Community stakeholders emerged into positions of knowledge leadership, while the roles of academic partners diminished in importance. The overall stakeholder network demonstrated a structural shift towards a core of densely interacting community stakeholders. . This was the first study to use Social network analysis to document a shift in ownership from academic to community partners, indicating community self-determination over the research process. Further analysis of qualitative data will determine which participatory actions or strategies were responsible for this observed change. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Construction of Hierarchical Models for Fluid Dynamics in Earth and Planetary Sciences : DCMODEL project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Y. O.; Takehiro, S.; Sugiyama, K.; Odaka, M.; Ishiwatari, M.; Sasaki, Y.; Nishizawa, S.; Ishioka, K.; Nakajima, K.; Hayashi, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Toward the understanding of fluid motions of planetary atmospheres and planetary interiors by performing multiple numerical experiments with multiple models, we are now proceeding ``dcmodel project'', where a series of hierarchical numerical models with various complexity is developed and maintained. In ``dcmodel project'', a series of the numerical models are developed taking care of the following points: 1) a common ``style'' of program codes assuring readability of the software, 2) open source codes of the models to the public, 3) scalability of the models assuring execution on various scales of computational resources, 4) stressing the importance of documentation and presenting a method for writing reference manuals. The lineup of the models and utility programs of the project is as follows: Gtool5, ISPACK/SPML, SPMODEL, Deepconv, Dcpam, and Rdoc-f95. In the followings, features of each component are briefly described. Gtool5 (Ishiwatari et al., 2012) is a Fortran90 library, which provides data input/output interfaces and various utilities commonly used in the models of dcmodel project. A self-descriptive data format netCDF is adopted as a IO format of Gtool5. The interfaces of gtool5 library can reduce the number of operation steps for the data IO in the program code of the models compared with the interfaces of the raw netCDF library. Further, by use of gtool5 library, procedures for data IO and addition of metadata for post-processing can be easily implemented in the program codes in a consolidated form independent of the size and complexity of the models. ``ISPACK'' is the spectral transformation library and ``SPML (SPMODEL library)'' (Takehiro et al., 2006) is its wrapper library. Most prominent feature of SPML is a series of array-handling functions with systematic function naming rules, and this enables us to write codes with a form which is easily deduced from the mathematical expressions of the governing equations. ``SPMODEL'' (Takehiro et al., 2006

  19. Analyzing the effect of selected control policy measures and sociodemographic factors on alcoholic beverage consumption in Europe within the AMPHORA project: statistical methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccini, Michela; Carreras, Giulia

    2014-10-01

    This paper describes the methods used to investigate variations in total alcoholic beverage consumption as related to selected control intervention policies and other socioeconomic factors (unplanned factors) within 12 European countries involved in the AMPHORA project. The analysis presented several critical points: presence of missing values, strong correlation among the unplanned factors, long-term waves or trends in both the time series of alcohol consumption and the time series of the main explanatory variables. These difficulties were addressed by implementing a multiple imputation procedure for filling in missing values, then specifying for each country a multiple regression model which accounted for time trend, policy measures and a limited set of unplanned factors, selected in advance on the basis of sociological and statistical considerations are addressed. This approach allowed estimating the "net" effect of the selected control policies on alcohol consumption, but not the association between each unplanned factor and the outcome.

  20. Fabrication of micropatterned hydrogels for neural culture systems using dynamic mask projection photolithography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curley, J Lowry; Jennings, Scott R; Moore, Michael J

    2011-02-11

    Increasingly, patterned cell culture environments are becoming a relevant technique to study cellular characteristics, and many researchers believe in the need for 3D environments to represent in vitro experiments which better mimic in vivo qualities. Studies in fields such as cancer research, neural engineering, cardiac physiology, and cell-matrix interaction have shown cell behavior differs substantially between traditional monolayer cultures and 3D constructs. Hydrogels are used as 3D environments because of their variety, versatility and ability to tailor molecular composition through functionalization. Numerous techniques exist for creation of constructs as cell-supportive matrices, including electrospinning, elastomer stamps, inkjet printing, additive photopatterning, static photomask projection-lithography, and dynamic mask microstereolithography. Unfortunately, these methods involve multiple production steps and/or equipment not readily adaptable to conventional cell and tissue culture methods. The technique employed in this protocol adapts the latter two methods, using a digital micromirror device (DMD) to create dynamic photomasks for crosslinking geometrically specific poly-(ethylene glycol) (PEG) hydrogels, induced through UV initiated free radical polymerization. The resulting "2.5D" structures provide a constrained 3D environment for neural growth. We employ a dual-hydrogel approach, where PEG serves as a cell-restrictive region supplying structure to an otherwise shapeless but cell-permissive self-assembling gel made from either Puramatrix or agarose. The process is a quick simple one step fabrication which is highly reproducible and easily adapted for use with conventional cell culture methods and substrates. Whole tissue explants, such as embryonic dorsal root ganglia (DRG), can be incorporated into the dual hydrogel constructs for experimental assays such as neurite outgrowth. Additionally, dissociated cells can be encapsulated in the

  1. Understanding the groundwater dynamics in the Southern Rift Valley Lakes Basin (Ethiopia). Multivariate statistical analysis method, oxygen (δ 18O) and deuterium (δ 2H)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girum Admasu Nadew; Zebene Lakew Tefera

    2013-01-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is very important to classify waters of different hydrochemical groups. Statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis, can provide a powerful tool for analyzing water chemistry data. This method is used to test water quality data and determine if samples can be grouped into distinct populations that may be significant in the geologic context, as well as from a statistical point of view. Multivariate statistical analysis method is applied to the geochemical data in combination with δ 18 O and δ 2 H isotopes with the objective to understand the dynamics of groundwater using hierarchical clustering and isotope analyses. The geochemical and isotope data of the central and southern rift valley lakes have been collected and analyzed from different works. Isotope analysis shows that most springs and boreholes are recharged by July and August rainfalls. The different hydrochemical groups that resulted from the multivariate analysis are described and correlated with the geology of the area and whether it has any interaction with a system or not. (author)

  2. Outcomes of care for 16,924 planned home births in the United States: the Midwives Alliance of North America Statistics Project, 2004 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheyney, Melissa; Bovbjerg, Marit; Everson, Courtney; Gordon, Wendy; Hannibal, Darcy; Vedam, Saraswathi

    2014-01-01

    Between 2004 and 2010, the number of home births in the United States rose by 41%, increasing the need for accurate assessment of the safety of planned home birth. This study examines outcomes of planned home births in the United States between 2004 and 2009. We calculated descriptive statistics for maternal demographics, antenatal risk profiles, procedures, and outcomes of planned home births in the Midwives Alliance of North American Statistics Project (MANA Stats) 2.0 data registry. Data were analyzed according to intended and actual place of birth. Among 16,924 women who planned home births at the onset of labor, 89.1% gave birth at home. The majority of intrapartum transfers were for failure to progress, and only 4.5% of the total sample required oxytocin augmentation and/or epidural analgesia. The rates of spontaneous vaginal birth, assisted vaginal birth, and cesarean were 93.6%, 1.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. Of the 1054 women who attempted a vaginal birth after cesarean, 87% were successful. Low Apgar scores (home births in the United States, outcomes are congruent with the best available data from population-based, observational studies that evaluated outcomes by intended place of birth and perinatal risk factors. Low-risk women in this cohort experienced high rates of physiologic birth and low rates of intervention without an increase in adverse outcomes. © 2014 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  3. The AmP project: Comparing species on the basis of dynamic energy budget parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonçalo M Marques

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We developed new methods for parameter estimation-in-context and, with the help of 125 authors, built the AmP (Add-my-Pet database of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB models, parameters and referenced underlying data for animals, where each species constitutes one database entry. The combination of DEB parameters covers all aspects of energetics throughout the full organism's life cycle, from the start of embryo development to death by aging. The species-specific parameter values capture biodiversity and can now, for the first time, be compared between animals species. An important insight brought by the AmP project is the classification of animal energetics according to a family of related DEB models that is structured on the basis of the mode of metabolic acceleration, which links up with the development of larval stages. We discuss the evolution of metabolism in this context, among animals in general, and ray-finned fish, mollusks and crustaceans in particular. New DEBtool code for estimating DEB parameters from data has been written. AmPtool code for analyzing patterns in parameter values has also been created. A new web-interface supports multiple ways to visualize data, parameters, and implied properties from the entire collection as well as on an entry by entry basis. The DEB models proved to fit data well, the median relative error is only 0.07, for the 1035 animal species at 2018/03/12, including some extinct ones, from all large phyla and all chordate orders, spanning a range of body masses of 16 orders of magnitude. This study is a first step to include evolutionary aspects into parameter estimation, allowing to infer properties of species for which very little is known.

  4. Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

    2010-12-01

    Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

  5. A statistical dynamics approach to the study of human health data: Resolving population scale diurnal variation in laboratory data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albers, D.J.; Hripcsak, George

    2010-01-01

    Statistical physics and information theory is applied to the clinical chemistry measurements present in a patient database containing 2.5 million patients' data over a 20-year period. Despite the seemingly naive approach of aggregating all patients over all times (with respect to particular clinical chemistry measurements), both a diurnal signal in the decay of the time-delayed mutual information and the presence of two sub-populations with differing health are detected. This provides a proof in principle that the highly fragmented data in electronic health records has potential for being useful in defining disease and human phenotypes.

  6. Modeling the monthly mean soil-water balance with a statistical-dynamical ecohydrology model as coupled to a two-component canopy model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Kochendorfer

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The statistical-dynamical annual water balance model of Eagleson (1978 is a pioneering work in the analysis of climate, soil and vegetation interactions. This paper describes several enhancements and modifications to the model that improve its physical realism at the expense of its mathematical elegance and analytical tractability. In particular, the analytical solutions for the root zone fluxes are re-derived using separate potential rates of transpiration and bare-soil evaporation. Those potential rates, along with the rate of evaporation from canopy interception, are calculated using the two-component Shuttleworth-Wallace (1985 canopy model. In addition, the soil column is divided into two layers, with the upper layer representing the dynamic root zone. The resulting ability to account for changes in root-zone water storage allows for implementation at the monthly timescale. This new version of the Eagleson model is coined the Statistical-Dynamical Ecohydrology Model (SDEM. The ability of the SDEM to capture the seasonal dynamics of the local-scale soil-water balance is demonstrated for two grassland sites in the US Great Plains. Sensitivity of the results to variations in peak green leaf area index (LAI suggests that the mean peak green LAI is determined by some minimum in root zone soil moisture during the growing season. That minimum appears to be close to the soil matric potential at which the dominant grass species begins to experience water stress and well above the wilting point, thereby suggesting an ecological optimality hypothesis in which the need to avoid water-stress-induced leaf abscission is balanced by the maximization of carbon assimilation (and associated transpiration. Finally, analysis of the sensitivity of model-determined peak green LAI to soil texture shows that the coupled model is able to reproduce the so-called "inverse texture effect", which consists of the observation that natural vegetation in dry climates tends

  7. Competitive strategy for the proposed Texas high speed rail project : a system dynamics/ CLIOS process approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-10

    The Texas High-Speed Rail (HSR) is an unprecedented US project proposed by a private company. This project has many uncertainties because it will be funded only by the private sectors and it is the first US HSR project using foreign technology. The H...

  8. Dynamical and statistical phenomena of circulation and heat transfer in periodically forced rotating turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterl, Sebastian; Li, Hui-Min; Zhong, Jin-Qiang

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we present results from an experimental study into turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection forced externally by periodically modulated unidirectional rotation rates. We find that the azimuthal rotation velocity θ ˙(t ) and thermal amplitude δ (t ) of the large-scale circulation (LSC) are modulated by the forcing, exhibiting a variety of dynamics including increasing phase delays and a resonant peak in the amplitude of θ ˙(t ) . We also focus on the influence of modulated rotation rates on the frequency of occurrence η of stochastic cessation or reorientation events, and on the interplay between such events and the periodically modulated response of θ ˙(t ) . Here we identify a mechanism by which η can be amplified by the modulated response, and these normally stochastic events can occur with high regularity. We provide a modeling framework that explains the observed amplitude and phase responses, and we extend this approach to make predictions for the occurrence of cessation events and the probability distributions of θ ˙(t ) and δ (t ) during different phases of a modulation cycle, based on an adiabatic approach that treats each phase separately. Last, we show that such periodic forcing has consequences beyond influencing LSC dynamics, by investigating how it can modify the heat transport even under conditions where the Ekman pumping effect is predominant and strong enhancement of heat transport occurs. We identify phase and amplitude responses of the heat transport, and we show how increased modulations influence the average Nusselt number.

  9. The dynamics of the H(+) + D(2) reaction: a comparison of quantum mechanical wavepacket, quasi-classical and statistical-quasi-classical results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jambrina, P G; Aoiz, F J; Bulut, N; Smith, Sean C; Balint-Kurti, G G; Hankel, M

    2010-02-07

    A detailed study of the proton exchange reaction H(+) + D(2)(v = 0, j = 0) --> HD + D(+) on its ground 1(1)A' potential energy surface has been carried out using 'exact' close-coupled quantum mechanical wavepacket (WP-EQM), quasi-classical trajectory (QCT), and statistical quasi-classical trajectory (SQCT) calculations for a range of collision energies starting from the reaction threshold to 1.3 eV. The WP-EQM calculations include all total angular momenta up to J(max) = 50, and therefore the various dynamical observables are converged up to 0.6 eV. It has been found that it is necessary to include all Coriolis couplings to obtain reliable converged results. Reaction probabilities obtained using the different methods are thoroughly compared as a function of the total energy for a series of J values. Comparisons are also made of total reaction cross sections as function of the collision energy, and rate constants. In addition, opacity functions, integral cross sections (ICS) and differential cross sections (DCS) are presented at 102 meV, 201.3 meV and 524.6 meV collision energy. The agreement between the three sets of results is only qualitative. The QCT calculations fail to describe the overall reactivity and most of the dynamical observables correctly. At low collision energies, the QCT method is plagued by the lack of conservation of zero point energy, whilst at higher collision energies and/or total angular momenta, the appearance of an effective repulsive potential associated with the centrifugal motion "over" the well causes a substantial decrease of the reactivity. In turn, the statistical models overestimate the reactivity over the whole range of collision energies as compared with the WP-EQM method. Specifically, at sufficiently high collision energies the reaction cannot be deemed to be statistical and important dynamical effects seem to be present. In general the WP-EQM results lie in between those obtained using the QCT and SQCT methods. One of the main

  10. Dynamic Testing of the NASA Hypersonic Project Combined Cycle Engine Testbed for Mode Transition Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    NASA is interested in developing technology that leads to more routine, safe, and affordable access to space. Access to space using airbreathing propulsion systems has potential to meet these objectives based on Airbreathing Access to Space (AAS) system studies. To this end, the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program (FAP) Hypersonic Project is conducting fundamental research on a Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) propulsion system. The TBCC being studied considers a dual flow-path inlet system. One flow-path includes variable geometry to regulate airflow to a turbine engine cycle. The turbine cycle provides propulsion from take-off to supersonic flight. The second flow-path supports a dual-mode scramjet (DMSJ) cycle which would be initiated at supersonic speed to further accelerate the vehicle to hypersonic speed. For a TBCC propulsion system to accelerate a vehicle from supersonic to hypersonic speed, a critical enabling technology is the ability to safely and effectively transition from the turbine to the DMSJ-referred to as mode transition. To experimentally test methods of mode transition, a Combined Cycle Engine (CCE) Large-scale Inlet testbed was designed with two flow paths-a low speed flow-path sized for a turbine cycle and a high speed flow-path designed for a DMSJ. This testbed system is identified as the CCE Large-Scale Inlet for Mode Transition studies (CCE-LIMX). The test plan for the CCE-LIMX in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) 10- by 10-ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel (10x10 SWT) is segmented into multiple phases. The first phase is a matrix of inlet characterization (IC) tests to evaluate the inlet performance and establish the mode transition schedule. The second phase is a matrix of dynamic system identification (SysID) experiments designed to support closed-loop control development at mode transition schedule operating points for the CCE-LIMX. The third phase includes a direct demonstration of controlled mode transition using a closed loop control

  11. The VATO project: Development and validation of a dynamic transfer model of tritium in grassland ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dizès, S; Aulagnier, C; Maro, D; Rozet, M; Vermorel, F; Hébert, D; Voiseux, C; Solier, L; Godinot, C; Fievet, B; Laguionie, P; Connan, O; Cazimajou, O; Morillon, M

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, a dynamic compartment model with a high temporal resolution has been investigated to describe tritium transfer in grassland ecosystems exposed to atmospheric 3 H releases from nuclear facilities under normal operating or accidental conditions. TOCATTA-χ model belongs to the larger framework of the SYMBIOSE modelling and simulation platform that aims to assess the fate and transport of a wide range of radionuclides in various environmental systems. In this context, the conceptual and mathematical models of TOCATTA-χ have been designed to be relatively simple, minimizing the number of compartments and input parameters required. In the same time, the model achieves a good compromise between easy-to-use (as it is to be used in an operational mode), explicative power and predictive accuracy in various experimental conditions. In the framework of the VATO project, the model has been tested against two-year-long in situ measurements of 3 H activity concentration monitored by IRSN in air, groundwater and grass, together with meteorological parameters, on a grass field plot located 2 km downwind of the AREVA NC La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant, as was done in the past for the evaluation of transfer of 14 C in grass. By considering fast exchanges at the vegetation-air canopy interface, the model correctly reproduces the observed variability in TFWT activity concentration in grass, which evolves in accordance with spikes in atmospheric HTO activity concentration over the previous 24 h. The average OBT activity concentration in grass is also correctly reproduced. However, the model has to be improved in order to reproduce punctual high concentration of OBT activity, as observed in December 2013. The introduction of another compartment with a fast kinetic (like TFWT) - although outside the model scope - improves the predictions by increasing the correlation coefficient from 0.29 up to 0.56 when it includes this particular point. Further experimental

  12. Dynamically biased statistical model for the ortho/para conversion in the H2 + H3+ → H3+ + H2 reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio

    2012-09-07

    In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007)]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constraints are introduced by considering a scrambling matrix which depends on energy and determine the probability of the identity/hop/exchange mechanisms. These probabilities are calculated using QCT. It is found that the high zero-point energy of the fragments is transferred to the rest of the degrees of freedom, what shortens the lifetime of H(5)(+) complexes and, as a consequence, the exchange mechanism is produced with lower proportion. The zero-point energy (ZPE) is not properly described in quasi-classical trajectory calculations and an approximation is done in which the initial ZPE of the reactants is reduced in QCT calculations to obtain a new ZPE-biased scrambling matrix. This reduction of the ZPE is explained by the need of correcting the pure classical level number of the H(5)(+) complex, as done in classical simulations of unimolecular processes and to get equivalent quantum and classical rate constants using Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory. This matrix allows to obtain a ratio of hop/exchange mechanisms, α(T), in rather good agreement with recent experimental results by Crabtree et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 194311 (2011)] at room temperature. At lower temperatures, however, the present simulations predict too high ratios because the biased scrambling matrix is not statistical enough. This demonstrates the importance of applying quantum methods to simulate this reaction at the low temperatures of astrophysical interest.

  13. Dynamically biased statistical model for the ortho/para conversion in the H2+H3+ --> H3++ H2 reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio

    2012-09-01

    In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007), 10.1063/1.2430711]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constraints are introduced by considering a scrambling matrix which depends on energy and determine the probability of the identity/hop/exchange mechanisms. These probabilities are calculated using QCT. It is found that the high zero-point energy of the fragments is transferred to the rest of the degrees of freedom, what shortens the lifetime of H_5^+ complexes and, as a consequence, the exchange mechanism is produced with lower proportion. The zero-point energy (ZPE) is not properly described in quasi-classical trajectory calculations and an approximation is done in which the initial ZPE of the reactants is reduced in QCT calculations to obtain a new ZPE-biased scrambling matrix. This reduction of the ZPE is explained by the need of correcting the pure classical level number of the H_5^+ complex, as done in classical simulations of unimolecular processes and to get equivalent quantum and classical rate constants using Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory. This matrix allows to obtain a ratio of hop/exchange mechanisms, α(T), in rather good agreement with recent experimental results by Crabtree et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 194311 (2011), 10.1063/1.3587246] at room temperature. At lower temperatures, however, the present simulations predict too high ratios because the biased scrambling matrix is not statistical enough. This demonstrates the importance of applying quantum methods to simulate this reaction at the low temperatures of astrophysical interest.

  14. Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinkle, Ross [University of Central Florida; Benscoter, Brian [Florida Atlantic University; Comas, Xavier [Florida Atlantic University; Sumner, David [USGS; DeAngelis, Donald [USGS

    2015-04-07

    Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regional carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.

  15. Theoretical and computational studies of non-equilibrium and non-statistical dynamics in the gas phase, in the condensed phase and at interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spezia, Riccardo; Martínez-Nuñez, Emilio; Vazquez, Saulo; Hase, William L

    2017-04-28

    In this Introduction, we show the basic problems of non-statistical and non-equilibrium phenomena related to the papers collected in this themed issue. Over the past few years, significant advances in both computing power and development of theories have allowed the study of larger systems, increasing the time length of simulations and improving the quality of potential energy surfaces. In particular, the possibility of using quantum chemistry to calculate energies and forces 'on the fly' has paved the way to directly study chemical reactions. This has provided a valuable tool to explore molecular mechanisms at given temperatures and energies and to see whether these reactive trajectories follow statistical laws and/or minimum energy pathways. This themed issue collects different aspects of the problem and gives an overview of recent works and developments in different contexts, from the gas phase to the condensed phase to excited states.This article is part of the themed issue 'Theoretical and computational studies of non-equilibrium and non-statistical dynamics in the gas phase, in the condensed phase and at interfaces'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Forecasting experiments of a dynamical-statistical model of the sea surface temperature anomaly field based on the improved self-memorization principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Shen, Shuanghe; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-04-01

    With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, this paper develops a new dynamical-statistical forecast model of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field. To avoid single initial prediction values, a self-memorization principle is introduced to improve the dynamical reconstruction model, thus making the model more appropriate for describing such chaotic systems as ENSO events. The improved dynamical-statistical model of the SSTA field is used to predict SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific and during El Niño and La Niña events. The long-term step-by-step forecast results and cross-validated retroactive hindcast results of time series T1 and T2 are found to be satisfactory, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of approximately 0.80 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 15 %. The corresponding forecast SSTA field is accurate in that not only is the forecast shape similar to the actual field but also the contour lines are essentially the same. This model can also be used to forecast the ENSO index. The temporal correlation coefficient is 0.8062, and the MAPE value of 19.55 % is small. The difference between forecast results in spring and those in autumn is not high, indicating that the improved model can overcome the spring predictability barrier to some extent. Compared with six mature models published previously, the present model has an advantage in prediction precision and length, and is a novel exploration of the ENSO forecast method.

  17. Successfully reducing newborn asphyxia in the labour unit in a large academic medical centre: a quality improvement project using statistical process control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollesen, Rikke von Benzon; Johansen, Rie Laurine Rosenthal; Rørbye, Christina; Munk, Louise; Barker, Pierre; Kjaerbye-Thygesen, Anette

    2018-02-03

    A safe delivery is part of a good start in life, and a continuous focus on preventing harm during delivery is crucial, even in settings with a good safety record. In January 2013, the labour unit at Copenhagen University Hospital, Hvidovre, undertook a quality improvement (QI) project to prevent asphyxia and reduced the percentage of newborns with asphyxia by 48%. The change theory consisted of two primary elements: (1) the clinical content, including three clinical bundles of evidence-based care, a 'delivery bundle', an 'oxytocin bundle' and a 'vacuum extraction bundle'; (2) an implementation theory, including improving skills in interpretation of cardiotocography, use of QI methods and participation in a national learning network. The Model for Improvement and Deming's system of profound knowledge were used as a methodological framework. Data on compliance with the care bundles and the number of deliveries between newborns with asphyxia (Apgar statistical process control. Compliance with all three clinical care bundles improved to 95% or more, and the percentages of newborns with pH <7 and Apgar <7 after 5 min were reduced by 48% and 31%, respectively. In general, the QI approach strengthened multidisciplinary teamwork, systematised workflow and structured communication around the deliveries. Changes included making a standard memo in the medical record, the use of a bedside whiteboard, bedside handovers, shared decisions with a peer when using an oxytocin infusion and the use of a checklist before vacuum extractions. This QI project illustrates how aspects of patient safety, such as the prevention of asphyxia, can be improved using QI methods to more reliably implement best practice, even in high-performing systems. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Identifying ecological "sweet spots" underlying cyanobacteria functional group dynamics from long-term observations using a statistical machine learning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Phlips, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Diversity in the eco-physiological adaptations of cyanobacteria genera creates challenges for water managers who are tasked with developing appropriate actions for controlling not only the intensity and frequency of cyanobacteria blooms, but also reducing the potential for blooms of harmful taxa (e.g., toxin producers, N2 fixers). Compounding these challenges, the efficacy of nutrient management strategies (phosphorus-only versus nitrogen-and-phosphorus) for cyanobacteria bloom abatement is the subject of an ongoing debate, which increases uncertainty associated with bloom mitigation decision-making. In this work, we analyze a unique long-term (17-year) dataset composed of monthly observations of cyanobacteria genera abundances, zooplankton abundances, water quality, and flow from Lake George, a bloom-impacted flow-through lake of the St. Johns River (FL, USA). Using the Random Forests machine learning algorithm, an assumption-free ensemble modeling approach, the dataset was evaluated to quantify and characterize relationships between environmental conditions and seven cyanobacteria groupings: five genera (Anabaena, Cylindrospermopsis, Lyngbya, Microcystis, and Oscillatoria) and two functional groups (N2 fixers and non-fixers). Results highlight the selectivity of nitrogen in describing genera and functional group dynamics, and potential for physical effects to limit the efficacy of nutrient management as a mechanism for cyanobacteria bloom mitigation.

  19. Statistical modeling of the Internet traffic dynamics: To which extent do we need long-term correlations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markelov, Oleg; Nguyen Duc, Viet; Bogachev, Mikhail

    2017-11-01

    Recently we have suggested a universal superstatistical model of user access patterns and aggregated network traffic. The model takes into account the irregular character of end user access patterns on the web via the non-exponential distributions of the local access rates, but neglects the long-term correlations between these rates. While the model is accurate for quasi-stationary traffic records, its performance under highly variable and especially non-stationary access dynamics remains questionable. In this paper, using an example of the traffic patterns from a highly loaded network cluster hosting the website of the 1998 FIFA World Cup, we suggest a generalization of the previously suggested superstatistical model by introducing long-term correlations between access rates. Using queueing system simulations, we show explicitly that this generalization is essential for modeling network nodes with highly non-stationary access patterns, where neglecting long-term correlations leads to the underestimation of the empirical average sojourn time by several decades under high throughput utilization.

  20. Pre-emptive resource-constrained multimode project scheduling using genetic algorithm: A dynamic forward approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aidin Delgoshaei

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The issue resource over-allocating is a big concern for project engineers in the process of scheduling project activities. Resource over-allocating drawback is frequently seen after scheduling of a project in practice which causes a schedule to be useless. Modifying an over-allocated schedule is very complicated and needs a lot of efforts and time. In this paper, a new and fast tracking method is proposed to schedule large scale projects which can help project engineers to schedule the project rapidly and with more confidence. Design/methodology/approach: In this article, a forward approach for maximizing net present value (NPV in multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem while assuming discounted positive cash flows (MRCPSP-DCF is proposed. The progress payment method is used and all resources are considered as pre-emptible. The proposed approach maximizes NPV using unscheduled resources through resource calendar in forward mode. For this purpose, a Genetic Algorithm is applied to solve. Findings: The findings show that the proposed method is an effective way to maximize NPV in MRCPSP-DCF problems while activity splitting is allowed. The proposed algorithm is very fast and can schedule experimental cases with 1000 variables and 100 resources in few seconds. The results are then compared with branch and bound method and simulated annealing algorithm and it is found the proposed genetic algorithm can provide results with better quality. Then algorithm is then applied for scheduling a hospital in practice. Originality/value: The method can be used alone or as a macro in Microsoft Office Project® Software to schedule MRCPSP-DCF problems or to modify resource over-allocated activities after scheduling a project. This can help project engineers to schedule project activities rapidly with more accuracy in practice.

  1. A Prospective Analysis of Dynamic Loss of Breast Projection in Tissue Expander-Implant Reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren M Mioton

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundBreast projection is a critical element of breast reconstruction aesthetics, but little has been published regarding breast projection as the firm expander is changed to a softer implant. Quantitative data representing this loss in projection may enhance patient education and improve our management of patient expectations.MethodsFemale patients who were undergoing immediate tissue-expander breast reconstruction with the senior author were enrolled in this prospective study. Three-dimensional camera software was used for all patient photographs and data analysis. Projection was calculated as the distance between the chest wall and the point of maximal projection of the breast form. Values were calculated for final tissue expander expansion and at varying intervals 3, 6, and 12 months after implant placement.ResultsFourteen breasts from 12 patients were included in the final analysis. Twelve of the 14 breasts had a loss of projection at three months following the implant placement or beyond. The percentage of projection lost in these 12 breasts ranged from 6.30% to 43.4%, with an average loss of projection of 21.05%.ConclusionsThis study is the first prospective quantitative analysis of temporal changes in breast projection after expander-implant reconstruction. By prospectively capturing projection data with three-dimensional photographic software, we reveal a loss of projection in this population by three months post-implant exchange. These findings will not only aid in managing patient expectations, but our methodology provides a foundation for future objective studies of the breast form.

  2. Development and validation of a national data registry for midwife-led births: the Midwives Alliance of North America Statistics Project 2.0 dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheyney, Melissa; Bovbjerg, Marit; Everson, Courtney; Gordon, Wendy; Hannibal, Darcy; Vedam, Saraswathi

    2014-01-01

    In 2004, the Midwives Alliance of North America's (MANA's) Division of Research developed a Web-based data collection system to gather information on the practices and outcomes associated with midwife-led births in the United States. This system, called the MANA Statistics Project (MANA Stats), grew out of a widely acknowledged need for more reliable data on outcomes by intended place of birth. This article describes the history and development of the MANA Stats birth registry and provides an analysis of the 2.0 dataset's content, strengths, and limitations. Data collection and review procedures for the MANA Stats 2.0 dataset are described, along with methods for the assessment of data accuracy. We calculated descriptive statistics for client demographics and contributing midwife credentials, and assessed the quality of data by calculating point estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and kappa statistics for key outcomes on pre- and postreview samples of records. The MANA Stats 2.0 dataset (2004-2009) contains 24,848 courses of care, 20,893 of which are for women who planned a home or birth center birth at the onset of labor. The majority of these records were planned home births (81%). Births were attended primarily by certified professional midwives (73%), and clients were largely white (92%), married (87%), and college-educated (49%). Data quality analyses of 9932 records revealed no differences between pre- and postreviewed samples for 7 key benchmarking variables (kappa, 0.98-1.00). The MANA Stats 2.0 data were accurately entered by participants; any errors in this dataset are likely random and not systematic. The primary limitation of the 2.0 dataset is that the sample was captured through voluntary participation; thus, it may not accurately reflect population-based outcomes. The dataset's primary strength is that it will allow for the examination of research questions on normal physiologic birth and midwife-led birth outcomes by intended place of birth.

  3. Application of the Method of Statistical Equations of Dependences to Assess the Dynamics of Regional Human Development Index for Khmelnytsk Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. О.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A statistical approach to assessment of the factor values required to have necessary (planned, predicted levels of a resulting indicator achieved, including for purposes of regional socio-economic programs, is developed, by applying the method of statistical equations of dependences. The main problems that can be solved by use of the method of statistical equations of dependences are: direct and inverse problem; computing the factors’ contributions in the resulting indicator; constructing graphs of multiple relation and computing the shares of influence (the weights of selected factors; analysis of functional and correlation dependences, etc. The developed approach is used to assess the dynamics of Regional Human Development Index (RHDI for Khmelnytsk region (Ukraine and its constituent factors, in 2011–2015. The computations show that the factors with the largest contribution in RHDI of Khmelnytsk region are as follows: “number of minimal food baskets that can be purchased for average per capita income in the region” (62.91%, “housing in cities (square area per person” (20.27%, and “total birth rate” (5.33%. The contributions of factors like “planned capacity of ambulatories and policlinics per 10 thousand population” or “coverage of children in school age by secondary education” range from 5.26 to 0.14%. It is concluded that the proposed approach to the application of the method of statistical equations of dependences for modeling of factor and resulting indicators contributing to human development parameters at regional level can be used for assessments at sectoral level, with modifying the nomenclature of indicators measuring the socio-economic development and the financial and economic performance of business entities in an economic sector.

  4. Understanding dynamics of information transmission in Drosophila melanogaster using a statistical modeling framework for longitudinal network data (the RSiena package

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian ePasquaretta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Social learning – the transmission of behaviors through observation or interaction with conspecifics – can be viewed as a decision-making process driven by interactions among individuals. Animal group structures change over time and interactions among individuals occur in particular orders that may be repeated following specific patterns, change in their nature, or disappear completely. Here we used a stochastic actor-oriented model built using the RSiena package in R to estimate individual behaviors and their changes through time, by analyzing the dynamic of the interaction network of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster during social learning experiments. In particular, we re-analyzed an experimental dataset where uninformed flies, left free to interact with informed ones, acquired and later used information about oviposition site choice obtained by social interactions. We estimated the degree to which the uninformed flies had successfully acquired the information carried by informed individuals using the proportion of eggs laid by uninformed flies on the medium their conspecifics had been trained to favor. Regardless of the degree of information acquisition measured in uninformed individuals, they always received and started interactions more frequently than informed ones did. However, information was efficiently transmitted (i.e. uninformed flies predominantly laid eggs on the same medium informed ones had learn to prefer only when the difference in contacts sent between the two fly types was small. Interestingly, we found that the degree of reciprocation, the tendency of individuals to form mutual connections between each other, strongly affected oviposition site choice in uninformed flies. This work highlights the great potential of RSiena and its utility in the studies of interaction networks among non-human animals.

  5. Quantitative analysis of emphysema and airway measurements according to iterative reconstruction algorithms: comparison of filtered back projection, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction and model-based iterative reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choo, Ji Yung; Goo, Jin Mo; Park, Chang Min; Park, Sang Joon; Lee, Chang Hyun; Shim, Mi-Suk

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate filtered back projection (FBP) and two iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithms and their effects on the quantitative analysis of lung parenchyma and airway measurements on computed tomography (CT) images. Low-dose chest CT obtained in 281 adult patients were reconstructed using three algorithms: FBP, adaptive statistical IR (ASIR) and model-based IR (MBIR). Measurements of each dataset were compared: total lung volume, emphysema index (EI), airway measurements of the lumen and wall area as well as average wall thickness. Accuracy of airway measurements of each algorithm was also evaluated using an airway phantom. EI using a threshold of -950 HU was significantly different among the three algorithms in decreasing order of FBP (2.30 %), ASIR (1.49 %) and MBIR (1.20 %) (P < 0.01). Wall thickness was also significantly different among the three algorithms with FBP (2.09 mm) demonstrating thicker walls than ASIR (2.00 mm) and MBIR (1.88 mm) (P < 0.01). Airway phantom analysis revealed that MBIR showed the most accurate value for airway measurements. The three algorithms presented different EIs and wall thicknesses, decreasing in the order of FBP, ASIR and MBIR. Thus, care should be taken in selecting the appropriate IR algorithm on quantitative analysis of the lung. (orig.)

  6. Comparison of the image qualities of filtered back-projection, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction, and model-based iterative reconstruction for CT venography at 80 kVp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jin Hyeok; Choo, Ki Seok; Moon, Tae Yong; Lee, Jun Woo; Jeon, Ung Bae; Kim, Tae Un; Hwang, Jae Yeon; Yun, Myeong-Ja; Jeong, Dong Wook; Lim, Soo Jin

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the subjective and objective qualities of computed tomography (CT) venography images at 80 kVp using model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) and to compare these with those of filtered back projection (FBP) and adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) using the same CT data sets. Forty-four patients (mean age: 56.1 ± 18.1) who underwent 80 kVp CT venography (CTV) for the evaluation of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) during 4 months were enrolled in this retrospective study. The same raw data were reconstructed using FBP, ASIR, and MBIR. Objective and subjective image analysis were performed at the inferior vena cava (IVC), femoral vein, and popliteal vein. The mean CNR of MBIR was significantly greater than those of FBP and ASIR and images reconstructed using MBIR had significantly lower objective image noise (p <.001). Subjective image quality and confidence of detecting DVT by MBIR group were significantly greater than those of FBP and ASIR (p <.005), and MBIR had the lowest score for subjective image noise (p <.001). CTV at 80 kVp with MBIR was superior to FBP and ASIR regarding subjective and objective image qualities. (orig.)

  7. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction versus filtered back projection in the same patient: 64 channel liver CT image quality and patient radiation dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsumori, Lee M.; Shuman, William P.; Busey, Janet M.; Kolokythas, Orpheus; Koprowicz, Kent M.

    2012-01-01

    To compare routine dose liver CT reconstructed with filtered back projection (FBP) versus low dose images reconstructed with FBP and adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR). In this retrospective study, patients had a routine dose protocol reconstructed with FBP, and again within 17 months (median 6.1 months), had a low dose protocol reconstructed twice, with FBP and ASIR. These reconstructions were compared for noise, image quality, and radiation dose. Nineteen patients were included. (12 male, mean age 58). Noise was significantly lower in low dose images reconstructed with ASIR compared to routine dose images reconstructed with FBP (liver: p <.05, aorta: p < 0.001). Low dose FBP images were scored significantly lower for subjective image quality than low dose ASIR (2.1 ± 0.5, 3.2 ± 0.8, p < 0.001). There was no difference in subjective image quality scores between routine dose FBP images and low dose ASIR images (3.6 ± 0.5, 3.2 ± 0.8, NS).Radiation dose was 41% less for the low dose protocol (4.4 ± 2.4 mSv versus 7.5 ± 5.5 mSv, p < 0.05). Our initial results suggest low dose CT images reconstructed with ASIR may have lower measured noise, similar image quality, yet significantly less radiation dose compared with higher dose images reconstructed with FBP. (orig.)

  8. Quantitative analysis of emphysema and airway measurements according to iterative reconstruction algorithms: comparison of filtered back projection, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction and model-based iterative reconstruction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choo, Ji Yung [Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, and Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan-si, Department of Radiology, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Jin Mo; Park, Chang Min; Park, Sang Joon [Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, and Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, Cancer Research Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Chang Hyun; Shim, Mi-Suk [Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, and Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-04-15

    To evaluate filtered back projection (FBP) and two iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithms and their effects on the quantitative analysis of lung parenchyma and airway measurements on computed tomography (CT) images. Low-dose chest CT obtained in 281 adult patients were reconstructed using three algorithms: FBP, adaptive statistical IR (ASIR) and model-based IR (MBIR). Measurements of each dataset were compared: total lung volume, emphysema index (EI), airway measurements of the lumen and wall area as well as average wall thickness. Accuracy of airway measurements of each algorithm was also evaluated using an airway phantom. EI using a threshold of -950 HU was significantly different among the three algorithms in decreasing order of FBP (2.30 %), ASIR (1.49 %) and MBIR (1.20 %) (P < 0.01). Wall thickness was also significantly different among the three algorithms with FBP (2.09 mm) demonstrating thicker walls than ASIR (2.00 mm) and MBIR (1.88 mm) (P < 0.01). Airway phantom analysis revealed that MBIR showed the most accurate value for airway measurements. The three algorithms presented different EIs and wall thicknesses, decreasing in the order of FBP, ASIR and MBIR. Thus, care should be taken in selecting the appropriate IR algorithm on quantitative analysis of the lung. (orig.)

  9. Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction versus filtered back projection in the same patient: 64 channel liver CT image quality and patient radiation dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitsumori, Lee M.; Shuman, William P.; Busey, Janet M.; Kolokythas, Orpheus; Koprowicz, Kent M. [University of Washington School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2012-01-15

    To compare routine dose liver CT reconstructed with filtered back projection (FBP) versus low dose images reconstructed with FBP and adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR). In this retrospective study, patients had a routine dose protocol reconstructed with FBP, and again within 17 months (median 6.1 months), had a low dose protocol reconstructed twice, with FBP and ASIR. These reconstructions were compared for noise, image quality, and radiation dose. Nineteen patients were included. (12 male, mean age 58). Noise was significantly lower in low dose images reconstructed with ASIR compared to routine dose images reconstructed with FBP (liver: p <.05, aorta: p < 0.001). Low dose FBP images were scored significantly lower for subjective image quality than low dose ASIR (2.1 {+-} 0.5, 3.2 {+-} 0.8, p < 0.001). There was no difference in subjective image quality scores between routine dose FBP images and low dose ASIR images (3.6 {+-} 0.5, 3.2 {+-} 0.8, NS).Radiation dose was 41% less for the low dose protocol (4.4 {+-} 2.4 mSv versus 7.5 {+-} 5.5 mSv, p < 0.05). Our initial results suggest low dose CT images reconstructed with ASIR may have lower measured noise, similar image quality, yet significantly less radiation dose compared with higher dose images reconstructed with FBP. (orig.)

  10. Quantum and classical studies of collisional excitation in H + CO and two other projects in theoretical chemical dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, L.C.

    1985-01-01

    This dissertation is a collection of four projects in theoretical chemical dynamics. In the first two projects collisional excitation in H + CO was studied using the quasiclassical trajectory method and the quantum infinite order sudden approximation (QIOS). Integral cross sections calculated using these methods were found to agree well with experimental and classical IOS results. The trajectory study was also used to examine the effects of potential energy surface features on the dynamics. Two surfaces were examined: a fitted surface based on ab initio points and a global ab initio surface. Next, the quasiclassical trajectory method was used to obtain cross sections and rate constants for O + H 2 → OH + H and analogous deuterium isotope reactions. The results using the Johnson and Winter surface agreed well with those of transition state theory (TST) and experiment, except for O + HD → OH + D. TST rate constants were calculated using an ab initio surface. These results were in poor agreement with calculations using the Johnson and Winter surface. A theory of action-angle variables for coupled oscillator systems was developed in the fourth project

  11. Projected Gauss-Seidel subspace minimization method for interactive rigid body dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silcowitz-Hansen, Morten; Abel, Sarah Maria Niebe; Erleben, Kenny

    2010-01-01

    artifacts such as viscous or damped contact response. In this paper, we present a new approach to contact force determination. We formulate the contact force problem as a nonlinear complementarity problem, and discretize the problem to derive the Projected Gauss–Seidel method. We combine the Projected Gauss......–Seidel method with a subspace minimization method. Our new method shows improved qualities and superior convergence properties for specific configurations....

  12. Students’ intellectual development measures as an effective tool of personality development dynamics monitoring in project activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faleeva A.A.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available this article reveals the method of an educational technology project, which includes a set of research, problem of methods, creative by its very nature. The integration of knowledge is achieved by the method of projects. Individual style of student learning should be based on consideration of the individual characteristics of each student, mental development characteristics, temperament, type of nervous activity. It is important to show students their own interest to acquire the knowledge that they will need in life.

  13. Getting ready for REDD+: Recognition and Donor-country Project Development Dynamics in Central Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gretchen M Walters

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available REDD+ (Reducing Emissions, Deforestation and forest Degradation+ is a United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC process through which governments reduce the impacts of climate change through forest conservation in a results-based payments scheme. Distinct from international negotiations about the REDD+ framework under the UNFCCC, there are also REDD+ projects that help governments to set up the institutional architecture, plans and strategies to implement REDD+. These capacity-building projects, in the first phase of 'REDD+ readiness', involve negotiations among national and international actors in which recognition and authority claims are used by participants to influence project-level negotiations. This study analyses the project development negotiations in a World Bank-led REDD+ capacity building regional project, involving six Central African countries between 2008 and 2011. It explores how the project created a 'negotiation table' constituted of national and regional institutions recognised by the donors and governments, and how this political space, influenced by global, regional and national political agendas led to 'instances' of recognition and misrecognition – in which some negotiating parties' claims of representation were acknowledge and affirmed, while others' claims were not. Focusing on Cameroon and Gabon, this article analyses how negotiations shaped full participation by Cameroon and only partial engagement by Gabon.

  14. Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Cancer? Cancer Statistics Cancer Disparities Cancer Statistics Cancer has a major impact on society in ... success of efforts to control and manage cancer. Statistics at a Glance: The Burden of Cancer in ...

  15. Statistical Physics An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Yoshioka, Daijiro

    2007-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive presentation of the basics of statistical physics. The first part explains the essence of statistical physics and how it provides a bridge between microscopic and macroscopic phenomena, allowing one to derive quantities such as entropy. Here the author avoids going into details such as Liouville’s theorem or the ergodic theorem, which are difficult for beginners and unnecessary for the actual application of the statistical mechanics. In the second part, statistical mechanics is applied to various systems which, although they look different, share the same mathematical structure. In this way readers can deepen their understanding of statistical physics. The book also features applications to quantum dynamics, thermodynamics, the Ising model and the statistical dynamics of free spins.

  16. Real-time dynamic range and signal to noise enhancement in beam-scanning microscopy by integration of sensor characteristics, data acquisition hardware, and statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissick, David J.; Muir, Ryan D.; Sullivan, Shane Z.; Oglesbee, Robert A.; Simpson, Garth J.

    2013-02-01

    Despite the ubiquitous use of multi-photon and confocal microscopy measurements in biology, the core techniques typically suffer from fundamental compromises between signal to noise (S/N) and linear dynamic range (LDR). In this study, direct synchronous digitization of voltage transients coupled with statistical analysis is shown to allow S/N approaching the theoretical maximum throughout an LDR spanning more than 8 decades, limited only by the dark counts of the detector on the low end and by the intrinsic nonlinearities of the photomultiplier tube (PMT) detector on the high end. Synchronous digitization of each voltage transient represents a fundamental departure from established methods in confocal/multi-photon imaging, which are currently based on either photon counting or signal averaging. High information-density data acquisition (up to 3.2 GB/s of raw data) enables the smooth transition between the two modalities on a pixel-by-pixel basis and the ultimate writing of much smaller files (few kB/s). Modeling of the PMT response allows extraction of key sensor parameters from the histogram of voltage peak-heights. Applications in second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy are described demonstrating S/N approaching the shot-noise limit of the detector over large dynamic ranges.

  17. Statistical Estimation of the Protein-Ligand Binding Free Energy Based On Direct Protein-Ligand Interaction Obtained by Molecular Dynamics Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruki Nakamura

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a method for estimating protein-ligand binding free energy (DG based on the direct protein-ligand interaction obtained by a molecular dynamics simulation. Using this method, we estimated the DG value statistically by the average values of the van der Waals and electrostatic interactions between each amino acid of the target protein and the ligand molecule. In addition, we introduced fluctuations in the accessible surface area (ASA and dihedral angles of the protein-ligand complex system as the entropy terms of the DG estimation. The present method included the fluctuation term of structural change of the protein and the effective dielectric constant. We applied this method to 34 protein-ligand complex structures. As a result, the correlation coefficient between the experimental and calculated DG values was 0.81, and the average error of DG was 1.2 kcal/mol with the use of the fixed parameters. These results were obtained from a 2 nsec molecular dynamics simulation.

  18. Modeling and Simulation of Longitudinal Dynamics for Low Energy Ring-High Energy Ring at the Positron-Electron Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivetta, Claudio; Mastorides, T.; Fox, J.D.; Teytelman, D.; Van Winkle, D.

    2007-01-01

    A time domain dynamic modeling and simulation tool for beam-cavity interactions in the Low Energy Ring (LER) and High Energy Ring (HER) at the Positron-Electron Project (PEP-II) is presented. Dynamic simulation results for PEP-II are compared to measurements of the actual machine. The motivation for this tool is to explore the stability margins and performance limits of PEP-II radio-frequency (RF) systems at future higher currents and upgraded RF configurations. It also serves as a test bed for new control algorithms and can define the ultimate limits of the low-level RF (LLRF) architecture. The time domain program captures the dynamic behavior of the beam-cavity-LLRF interaction based on a reduced model. The ring current is represented by macrobunches. Multiple RF stations in the ring are represented via one or two macrocavities. Each macrocavity captures the overall behavior of all the 2 or 4 cavity RF stations. Station models include nonlinear elements in the klystron and signal processing. This enables modeling the principal longitudinal impedance control loops interacting via the longitudinal beam model. The dynamics of the simulation model are validated by comparing the measured growth rates for the LER with simulation results. The simulated behavior of the LER at increased operation currents is presented via low-mode instability growth rates. Different control strategies are compared and the effects of both the imperfections in the LLRF signal processing and the nonlinear drivers and klystrons are explored

  19. Comparison of applied dose and image quality in staging CT of neuroendocrine tumor patients using standard filtered back projection and adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Böning, G.; Schäfer, M.; Grupp, U.; Kaul, D.; Kahn, J.; Pavel, M.; Maurer, M.; Denecke, T.; Hamm, B.; Streitparth, F.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Iterative reconstruction (IR) in staging CT provides equal objective image quality compared to filtered back projection (FBP). • IR delivers excellent subjective quality and reduces effective dose compared to FBP. • In patients with neuroendocrine tumor (NET) or may other hypervascular abdominal tumors IR can be used without scarifying diagnostic confidence. - Abstract: Objective: To investigate whether dose reduction via adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) affects image quality and diagnostic accuracy in neuroendocrine tumor (NET) staging. Methods: A total of 28 NET patients were enrolled in the study. Inclusion criteria were histologically proven NET and visible tumor in abdominal computed tomography (CT). In an intraindividual study design, the patients underwent a baseline CT (filtered back projection, FBP) and follow-up CT (ASIR 40%) using matched scan parameters. Image quality was assessed subjectively using a 5-grade scoring system and objectively by determining signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-to-noise ratios (CNRs). Applied volume computed tomography dose index (CTDI vol ) of each scan was taken from the dose report. Results: ASIR 40% significantly reduced CTDI vol (10.17 ± 3.06 mGy [FBP], 6.34 ± 2.25 mGy [ASIR] (p < 0.001) by 37.6% and significantly increased CNRs (complete tumor-to-liver, 2.76 ± 1.87 [FBP], 3.2 ± 2.32 [ASIR]) (p < 0.05) (complete tumor-to-muscle, 2.74 ± 2.67 [FBP], 4.31 ± 4.61 [ASIR]) (p < 0.05) compared to FBP. Subjective scoring revealed no significant changes for diagnostic confidence (5.0 ± 0 [FBP], 5.0 ± 0 [ASIR]), visibility of suspicious lesion (4.8 ± 0.5 [FBP], 4.8 ± 0.5 [ASIR]) and artifacts (5.0 ± 0 [FBP], 5.0 ± 0 [ASIR]). ASIR 40% significantly decreased scores for noise (4.3 ± 0.6 [FBP], 4.0 ± 0.8 [ASIR]) (p < 0.05), contrast (4.4 ± 0.6 [FBP], 4.1 ± 0.8 [ASIR]) (p < 0.001) and visibility of small structures (4.5 ± 0.7 [FBP], 4.3 ± 0.8 [ASIR]) (p < 0

  20. Comparison of applied dose and image quality in staging CT of neuroendocrine tumor patients using standard filtered back projection and adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Böning, G., E-mail: georg.boening@charite.de [Department of Radiology, Charité, Humboldt-University Medical School, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Schäfer, M.; Grupp, U. [Department of Radiology, Charité, Humboldt-University Medical School, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Kaul, D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Charité, Humboldt-University Medical School, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Kahn, J. [Department of Radiology, Charité, Humboldt-University Medical School, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Pavel, M. [Department of Gastroenterology, Charité, Humboldt-University Medical School, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Maurer, M.; Denecke, T.; Hamm, B.; Streitparth, F. [Department of Radiology, Charité, Humboldt-University Medical School, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Iterative reconstruction (IR) in staging CT provides equal objective image quality compared to filtered back projection (FBP). • IR delivers excellent subjective quality and reduces effective dose compared to FBP. • In patients with neuroendocrine tumor (NET) or may other hypervascular abdominal tumors IR can be used without scarifying diagnostic confidence. - Abstract: Objective: To investigate whether dose reduction via adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) affects image quality and diagnostic accuracy in neuroendocrine tumor (NET) staging. Methods: A total of 28 NET patients were enrolled in the study. Inclusion criteria were histologically proven NET and visible tumor in abdominal computed tomography (CT). In an intraindividual study design, the patients underwent a baseline CT (filtered back projection, FBP) and follow-up CT (ASIR 40%) using matched scan parameters. Image quality was assessed subjectively using a 5-grade scoring system and objectively by determining signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-to-noise ratios (CNRs). Applied volume computed tomography dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) of each scan was taken from the dose report. Results: ASIR 40% significantly reduced CTDI{sub vol} (10.17 ± 3.06 mGy [FBP], 6.34 ± 2.25 mGy [ASIR] (p < 0.001) by 37.6% and significantly increased CNRs (complete tumor-to-liver, 2.76 ± 1.87 [FBP], 3.2 ± 2.32 [ASIR]) (p < 0.05) (complete tumor-to-muscle, 2.74 ± 2.67 [FBP], 4.31 ± 4.61 [ASIR]) (p < 0.05) compared to FBP. Subjective scoring revealed no significant changes for diagnostic confidence (5.0 ± 0 [FBP], 5.0 ± 0 [ASIR]), visibility of suspicious lesion (4.8 ± 0.5 [FBP], 4.8 ± 0.5 [ASIR]) and artifacts (5.0 ± 0 [FBP], 5.0 ± 0 [ASIR]). ASIR 40% significantly decreased scores for noise (4.3 ± 0.6 [FBP], 4.0 ± 0.8 [ASIR]) (p < 0.05), contrast (4.4 ± 0.6 [FBP], 4.1 ± 0.8 [ASIR]) (p < 0.001) and visibility of small structures (4.5 ± 0.7 [FBP], 4.3 ± 0.8 [ASIR]) (p < 0