WorldWideScience

Sample records for dynamic mains models

  1. Modelling Dynamics of Main Indicators of Economic Activity of Households of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuk Mykola O.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is the study of the structure of the system of economic activity of households in Ukraine and dynamics of interconnections between the main indicators of its functioning. In order to study dynamics of main indicators of the system of economic activity of households, the article uses tools of econometric vector-autoregression modelling (VAR models. Based on the existing statistical data and a developed VAR model, the article studies individual and aggregate influence of lag values of indicators upon their current values, system reaction on main indicators impulses, analyses dynamics of change of explanation of dispersion of some indicators with others, and conducts two types of forecasts that reflect a general tendency of development of economic activity of households in Ukraine. High accuracy of forecasts obtained with the help of the proposed econometric model testifies to a possibility of its practical application for assessment of the state of main indicators of economic activity of households of Ukraine. The article applies for the first time the tools of VAR modelling for the study of economic activity of households in Ukraine, which expands possibilities of use of mathematical and statistical methods and models in this field of economy.

  2. Dynamic models of reduced order of main components of a M SR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia B, F. B.; Morales S, J. B.; Polo L, M. A.; Espinosa P, G.

    2011-11-01

    The reactors of melted salts called Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR), have seen a resurgence of interest in the last decade. This design is one of the six proposed for the IV generation reactors. The most active development was in the middle of 1950 and principles of 1970 in the Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL). In this work the mathematician modeling of the main components in the primary and secondary circuits of a M SR is presented. In particular the dynamics of the heat exchanger is analyzed and they are considered several materials to optimize the system thermodynamically. (Author)

  3. Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guocheng; Zhang, Wen; Sun, Wenjuan; Li, Tingting; Han, Pengfei

    2017-10-01

    Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C) input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014). A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC) and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive) and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to effectively mitigate climate change through soil C

  4. Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1°  ×  0.1° and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014. A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative. Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to

  5. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  6. A Collisional Model of the "Pristine Zone" of the Main Asteroid Belt and the Dynamics of LHB Families Located There

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broz, Miroslav; Cibulkova, H.; Rehak, M.

    2012-10-01

    Modifying the Boulder code (Morbidelli et al. 2009), we construct a new collisional model of the Main Asteroid Belt, which is divided to six parts (inner, middle, outer, pristine zone, Cybele region and high-inclination region) in order to study relations between them and check the number of families observed in each of them. We focus on the so-called "pristine zone" between 2.825 and 2.955 AU - bounded by the 5:2 and 7:3 resonances with Jupiter - because this region is relatively empty and we may thus spot very old/eroded families. We model long-term dynamical and collisional evolution of the Itha family (around the asteroid (918) Itha) and we interpreted it as an old, dispersed and comminutioned cluster, likely dated back to the Late Heavy Bombardment 3.8 Gyr ago. We thus extend our collisional models and include the effects of the LHB too. In the framework of the Nice model, the flux of comets during the LHB is mostly controlled by the original size-freqeuncy distribution of the cometary disk beyond Neptune and a rate at which comets disrupt when they approach the Sun. To this point we provide a related discussion of various cometary disruption laws.

  7. Fragmentation Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The fragmentation model combines patch size and patch continuity with diversity of vegetation types per patch and rarity of vegetation types per patch. A patch was...

  8. Study on Near Distributed Dynamic Model of a Multifountain-and-multiconfluent Network System of Steam Main-pipeline and Parallel Coursing Units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Pan; Jiong, Shen

    2007-06-01

    According to the deficiency of the prior modeling methods on main-pipeline system, the paper advances a near distributed modeling way based on subsection, combination and delamination for parallel coursing units and main-pipeline system to fully show its distributed dynamics by an easy-simulated mode of expression. Firstly, a principle is established to plot out the main-pipeline into some short pipe-sections between each pair of fountain/confluent points. Secondly, a near distributed decoupling transfer function matrix model without steady error for each pipe-section is built by rationally approximate deduction and then joined with the dynamic models of the fountain/confluent at the two ends of the pipe-section to form the near distributed model of each subsection. Finally, a smooth arithmetic is adopted to joint all the conterminous subsections into a whole system model. The modeling method above decreases the dimension of matter space and integrates more influence factors on the system dynamic characteristics into the built model, such as pipe length, diameter and the thermodynamics of working fluid, so it more particularly reflects the distributed dynamic characteristics of a multifountain-and-multiconfluent network system of steam main-pipeline and parallel coursing units than before, and can act well as the simulated research object for advanced main-pipeline system control arithmetic and distributed control technology or even validates them. Some simulation experiments have been done and produced good results to prove the validity of the modeling method.

  9. Space Shuttle Main Engine Low Pressure Oxidizer Turbo-Pump Inducer Dynamic Environment Characterization through Water Model and Hot-Fire Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arellano, Patrick; Patton, Marc; Schwartz, Alan; Stanton, David

    2006-01-01

    The Low Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (LPOTP) inducer on the Block II configuration Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) experienced blade leading edge ripples during hot firing. This undesirable condition led to a minor redesign of the inducer blades. This resulted in the need to evaluate the performance and the dynamic environment of the redesign, relative to the current configuration, as part of the design acceptance process. Sub-scale water model tests of the two inducer configurations were performed, with emphasis on the dynamic environment due to cavitation induced vibrations. Water model tests were performed over a wide range of inlet flow coefficient and pressure conditions, representative of the scaled operating envelope of the Block II SSME, both in flight and in ground hot-fire tests, including all power levels. The water test hardware, facility set-up, type and placement of instrumentation, the scope of the test program, specific test objectives, data evaluation process and water test results that characterize and compare the two SSME LPOTP inducers are discussed. In addition, dynamic characteristics of the two water models were compared to hot fire data from specially instrumented ground tests. In general, good agreement between the water model and hot fire data was found, which confirms the value of water model testing for dynamic characterization of rocket engine turbomachinery.

  10. A multiclass vehicular dynamic traffic flow model for main roads and dedicated lanes/roads of multimodal transport network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sossoe, K.S.; Lebacque, J-P.

    2015-01-01

    We present in this paper a model of vehicular traffic flow for a multimodal transportation road network. We introduce the notion of class of vehicles to refer to vehicles of different transport modes. Our model describes the traffic on highways (which may contain several lanes) and network transit for pubic transportation. The model is drafted with Eulerian and Lagrangian coordinates and uses a Logit model to describe the traffic assignment of our multiclass vehicular flow description on shared roads. The paper also discusses traffic streams on dedicated lanes for specific class of vehicles with event-based traffic laws. An Euler-Lagrangian-remap scheme is introduced to numerically approximate the model’s flow equations

  11. Discrete dynamical models

    CERN Document Server

    Salinelli, Ernesto

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to the analysis of discrete dynamical systems. The content is presented by an unitary approach that blends the perspective of mathematical modeling together with the ones of several discipline as Mathematical Analysis, Linear Algebra, Numerical Analysis, Systems Theory and Probability. After a preliminary discussion of several models, the main tools for the study of linear and non-linear scalar dynamical systems are presented, paying particular attention to the stability analysis. Linear difference equations are studied in detail and an elementary introduction of Z and Discrete Fourier Transform is presented. A whole chapter is devoted to the study of bifurcations and chaotic dynamics. One-step vector-valued dynamical systems are the subject of three chapters, where the reader can find the applications to positive systems, Markov chains, networks and search engines. The book is addressed mainly to students in Mathematics, Engineering, Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Economic...

  12. Portland, Maine Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  13. Portland, Maine Tsunami Forecast Grids for MOST Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Portland, Maine Forecast Model Grids provides bathymetric data strictly for tsunami inundation modeling with the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. MOST...

  14. Dynamic changes of main metabolic substances during anther ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main metabolic substances changes during the development process of anther-derived embryos in loquat (Eriobotrya japonica Lindl. cv. 'Dawuxing') were studied. These include water contents, dry mass contents, carbohydrates, soluble proteins and nucleic acids. In the developmental stages of anther-derived ...

  15. Ancrage dynamique: principales applications Dynamic Positioning: Main Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fay H.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available L'ancrage dynamique est la technique qui a permis à la recherche pétrolière d'étendre ses possibilités bien au-delà des plateaux continentaux, sans limitation de profondeur, pour des opérations difficiles, ou encore dans un environnement océanométéorologique sévère, comme celui de la mer du Nord et des mers froides avec la présence d'icebergs. Cet article correspond à des extraits de l'ouvrage Ancrage dynamique. Technique et applications , à paraître aux Editions Technip. Après un bref rappel historique et un exposé succinct des caractéristiques des systèmes d'ancrage dynamique, les principales réalisations de navires et de plates-formes semi-submersibles équipées d'un ancrage dynamique sont présentées. La précision du maintien en position, ainsi que les limites opérationnelles des supports considérés sont de même exposées. Enfin la conclusion retrace les avantages de ce procédé, dont l'exceptionnel développement s'applique aussi aux domaines scientifiques et militaires, ainsi qu'à d'autres secteurs industriels que celui des hydrocarbures. Dynamic positioning is the technique that has enabled oil exploration to extend its possibilities far beyond continental shelves, without any limitation of water depth, for difficult operations or else in harsh environments such as for the North Sea and arctic zones with the presence of icebergs. This paper consists of extracts from the book Dynamic Positioning. Technique and Applications , to be published by Editions Technip. After a brief historical review and a succinct survey of the characteristics of dynamic positioning systems, the principal realizations of ships and semi-submersible platforms equipped with a dynamic positioning system are described. The accuracy of position holding capability as well as the operational limits of the supports considered are also described. The conclusion reviews the advantages of this technique, whose exceptional development also

  16. Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    model structure suggested by University of Lund the WP4 leader. This particular model structure has the advantages that it fits better into the control design frame work used by WP3-4 compared to the model structures previously developed in WP2. The different model structures are first summarised....... Then issues dealing with optimal experimental design is considered. Finally the parameters are estimated in the chosen static and dynamic models and a validation is performed. Two of the static models, one of them the additive model, explains the data well. In case of dynamic models the suggested additive...

  17. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    Monitoring a complex process often involves keeping an eye on hundreds or thousands of sensors to determine whether or not the process is under control. We have been working with dynamic data from an oil production facility in the North sea, where unstable situations should be identified as soon...... as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...... in the process as well as modeling dependences between attributes....

  18. Pre-main sequence sun: a dynamic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, M.J.; Winkler, K.H.A.

    1979-01-01

    The classical pre-main sequence evolutionary behavior found by Hayashi and his coworkers for the Sun depends crucially on the choice of initial conditions. The Hayashi picture results from beginning the calculation with an already centrally condensed, highly Jeans unstable object not terribly far removed from the stellar state initially. The present calculation follows the work of Larson in investigating the hydrodynamic collapse and self-gravitational accretion of an initially uniform, just Jeans unstable interstellar gas-dust cloud. The resulting picture for the early history of the Sun is quite different from that found by Hayashi. A rather small (R approx. = 2 R/sub sun/), low-luminosity (L greater than or equal to L/sub sun/) protostellar core develops. A fully convective stellar core, characteristic of Hayashi's work, is not found during the accretion process, and can only develop, if at all, in the subsequent pre-main sequence Kelvin-Helmholtz contraction of the core. 3 figures, 1 table

  19. Dynamic optimization of maintenance and improvement planning for water main system: Periodic replacement approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jong Woo; Choi, Go Bong; Lee, Jong Min [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Suh, Jung Chul [Samchully Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-01-15

    This paper proposes a Markov decision process (MDP) based approach to derive an optimal schedule of maintenance, rehabilitation and replacement of the water main system. The scheduling problem utilizes auxiliary information of a pipe such as the current state, cost, and deterioration model. The objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming are modified to solve the periodic replacement problem. The optimal policy evaluated by the proposed algorithm is compared to several existing policies via Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed decision framework provides a systematic way to obtain an optimal policy.

  20. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  1. Dynamic accelerator modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Hiroshi.

    1993-05-01

    Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling

  2. Models for Dynamic Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...

  3. Dynamic panel data models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Sarafidis, V.

    2013-01-01

    This Chapter reviews the recent literature on dynamic panel data models with a short time span and a large cross-section. Throughout the discussion we considerlinear models with additional endogenous covariates. First we give a broad overview of available inference methods placing emphasis on GMM.

  4. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Modeling Propellant Tank Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The main objective of my work will be to develop accurate models of self-pressurizing propellant tanks for use in designing hybrid rockets. The first key goal is to...

  6. The general dynamic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael K.; Matthews, Thomas J.; Whittaker, Robert James

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Island biogeography focuses on understanding the processes that underlie a set of well-described patterns on islands, but it lacks a unified theoretical framework for integrating these processes. The recently proposed general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography offers a step...... towards this goal. Here, we present an analysis of causality within the GDM and investigate its potential for the further development of island biogeographical theory. Further, we extend the GDM to include subduction-based island arcs and continental fragment islands. Location: A conceptual analysis...... dynamics of distinct island types are predicted to lead to markedly different evolutionary dynamics. This sets the stage for a more predictive theory incorporating the processes governing temporal dynamics of species diversity on islands....

  7. System Dynamics Modeling as a Supporting Tool in order to Uncover Relevant KPI’s as well as Their Main Relations in the Process of Constructing a Balanced Scorecard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn; Bjoern Pedersen, Lars

    , operational execution, feedback and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model (Argyris, 1976; Kaplan and Norton, 1996; Otley, 1999; Warren, 2005). By combining BSC with systems thinking as developed by Forrester in 1958, the present paper aims to address...... dynamics (SD) when setting themes, objectives and key performance indicators, a company can - at a very early stage in the process - begin to improve and develop its business acumen and understanding of how the company's balanced scorecard must be designed according to the strategy to be executed through...... the tool. SD-modelling tools in this phase are: the subsystem diagram, boundary chart and CLD (closed loop diagram). The output is CLD, containing the key performance indicators and variables that are central to the company's strategy. The next step is then to use the stock & flow idea, ending up...

  8. Corruption dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

    2017-07-01

    The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

  9. Ecosystem metabolism and nutrient dynamics in the main channel and backwaters of the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, Jeff N.; Bartsch, Lynn; Richardson, William B.; Rogala, James T.; Sullivan, John F.

    2015-01-01

    Photosynthesis and respiration are primary drivers of dissolved oxygen dynamics in rivers. We measured dissolved oxygen dynamics, aquatic ecosystem metabolism, algal abundance and nutrient concentrations at main channel and backwater sites on a reach of the Upper Mississippi River that borders the states of Wisconsin and Minnesota (U.S.A.). We asked (i) how ecosystem metabolism rates, dissolved oxygen dynamics and nutrient concentrations differed in the main channel and in backwaters, (ii) whether ecosystem metabolism relates to solar irradiance, nutrient concentration, algal abundance, temperature and river discharge and (iii) whether the relationships between ecosystem metabolism and these environmental factors differs between the main channel and backwaters.

  10. Preliminary analysis of selected gas dynamic problems. [space shuttle main engine main combustion transients and IUS nozzle flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prozan, R. J.; Farmer, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    The VAST computer code was used to analyze SSME main combustion chamber start-up transients and the IUS flow field for a damaged nozzle was investigated to better understand the gas dynamic considerations involved in vehicle problems, the effect of start transients on the nozzle flow field for the SSME, and the possibility that a damaged nozzle could account for the acceleration anomaly noted on IUS burn. The results obtained were compared with a method of characteristics prediction. Pressure solutions from both codes were in very good agreement and the Mach number solution on the nozzle centerline deviates substantially for the high expansions for the SSME. Since this deviation was unexpected, the phenomenon is being further examined.

  11. [Migration as the main factor of the Russia’s urban population dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatova, O L; Yankovsky, N K

    2016-07-01

    This review summarizes the results of the long-term studies performed at the Institute of General Genetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, in the field of genetic demography of migration processes in Russia and its capital. The main population-genetic parameters of migration and their dynamics in Moscow over a hundred years are given. Sociodemographic and population-genetic implications of migration processes are considered. A model predicting the population gene pool dynamics under migration pressure for genes of different localization (autosomal, sex-linked, and mitochondrial), exemplified by predicting the allele frequency dynamics in the Moscow population of some gene markers, including genes accounting for monogenic pathology and genes associated with resistance to socially significant diseases, are presented. The paper discusses the selective character of migration processes, in particular, processes of emigration, with respect to some genetically significant ethnodemographic traits; the problem of adaptation of migrants; and adaptive strategies of consolidation of ethnoconfessional groups in the megalopolis (compact settlement over the urban territory and positive assortative mating with respect to demographic traits). It was shown that, owing to the intense influx of migrants and gene flows between ethnic groups, the population of the megalopolis is of mixed origin in terms of ethnic, anthropologic, and genetic aspects. The results of the study suggest the necessity to develop a specific strategy of genetic database formation for the population of megalopolises for the purposes of medical genetics and forensic medicine.

  12. Business model dynamics and innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the need to dynamize the existing conceptualization of business model, and proposes a new typology to distinguish different types of business model change. Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates basic insights of innovation, business process...... the impact of specific changes to a firm's business model. Such a tool would be particularly useful in identifying path dependencies and resistance at the process level, and would therefore allow a firm's management to take focused action on this in advance. Originality/value – The paper makes two main...... contributions: first, it offers a new, process-based conceptualization of business models; second, it is the first paper to establish a direct link between business model change and the degree of innovation (such as “incremental” vs “radical”), and which distinguishes and specifies different types of business...

  13. Dynamic wake meandering modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Bingöl, Ferhat

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however......, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed......, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power– and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct...

  14. Dynamical chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colanero, K.; Chu, M.-C.

    2002-01-01

    We study a dynamical chiral bag model, in which massless fermions are confined within an impenetrable but movable bag coupled to meson fields. The self-consistent motion of the bag is obtained by solving the equations of motion exactly assuming spherical symmetry. When the bag interacts with an external meson wave we find three different kinds of resonances: fermionic, geometric, and σ resonances. We discuss the phenomenological implications of our results

  15. Main sequence models for massive zero-metal stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cary, N.

    1974-01-01

    Zero-age main-sequence models for stars of 20, 10, 5, and 2 solar masses with no heavy elements are constructed for three different possible primordial helium abundances: Y=0.00, Y=0.23, and Y=0.30. The latter two values of Y bracket the range of primordial helium abundances cited by Wagoner. With the exceptions of the two 20 solar mass models that contain helium, these models are found to be self-consistent in the sense that the formation of carbon through the triple-alpha process during premain sequence contraction is not sufficient to bring the CN cycle into competition with the proton-proton chain on the ZAMS. The zero-metal models of the present study have higher surface and central temperatures, higher central densities, smaller radii, and smaller convective cores than do the population I models with the same masses.

  16. Contact dynamics math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.

    1986-01-01

    The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.

  17. The Livingstone Model of a Main Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajwa, Anupa; Sweet, Adam; Korsmeyer, David (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Livingstone is a discrete, propositional logic-based inference engine that has been used for diagnosis of physical systems. We present a component-based model of a Main Propulsion System (MPS) and say how it is used with Livingstone (L2) in order to implement a diagnostic system for integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) for the Propulsion IVHM Technology Experiment (PITEX). We start by discussing the process of conceptualizing such a model. We describe graphical tools that facilitated the generation of the model. The model is composed of components (which map onto physical components), connections between components and constraints. A component is specified by variables, with a set of discrete, qualitative values for each variable in its local nominal and failure modes. For each mode, the model specifies the component's behavior and transitions. We describe the MPS components' nominal and fault modes and associated Livingstone variables and data structures. Given this model, and observed external commands and observations from the system, Livingstone tracks the state of the MPS over discrete time-steps by choosing trajectories that are consistent with observations. We briefly discuss how the compiled model fits into the overall PITEX architecture. Finally we summarize our modeling experience, discuss advantages and disadvantages of our approach, and suggest enhancements to the modeling process.

  18. Intrinsically dynamic population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals equals the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields an IDM when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27 and (30 provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable population model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth.

  19. Dynamical Formation of Close Binaries during the Pre-main-sequence Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moe, Maxwell; Kratter, Kaitlin M.

    2018-02-01

    Solar-type binaries with short orbital periods ({P}{close}\\equiv 1{--}10 days a ≲ 0.1 au) cannot form directly via fragmentation of molecular clouds or protostellar disks, yet their component masses are highly correlated, suggesting interaction during the pre-main-sequence (pre-MS) phase. Moreover, the close binary fraction of pre-MS stars is consistent with that of their MS counterparts in the field ({F}{close}=2.1 % ). Thus, we can infer that some migration mechanism operates during the early pre-MS phase (τ ≲ 5 Myr) that reshapes the primordial separation distribution. We test the feasibility of this hypothesis by carrying out a population synthesis calculation which accounts for two formation channels: Kozai–Lidov (KL) oscillations and dynamical instability in triple systems. Our models incorporate (1) more realistic initial conditions compared to previous studies, (2) octupole-level effects in the secular evolution, (3) tidal energy dissipation via weak-friction equilibrium tides at small eccentricities and via non-radial dynamical oscillations at large eccentricities, and (4) the larger tidal radius of a pre-MS primary. Given a 15% triple-star fraction, we simulate a close binary fraction from KL oscillations alone of {F}{close}≈ 0.4 % after τ = 5 Myr, which increases to {F}{close}≈ 0.8 % by τ = 5 Gyr. Dynamical ejections and disruptions of unstable coplanar triples in the disk produce solitary binaries with slightly longer periods P ≈ 10–100 days. The remaining ≈60% of close binaries with outer tertiaries, particularly those in compact coplanar configurations with log {P}{out} (days) ≈ 2–5 ({a}{out}energy dissipation due to interactions with primordial gas.

  20. Main chains and eigen modes of fractional order hybrid multipendulum system dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedrih, Katica R. [Faculty of Mechanical Engineering University of Nis, Mathematical Institute SANU, ul. Vojvode Tankosic 3/V/22, 18000- Nis (Serbia)], E-mail: katica@masfak.ni.ac.yu, E-mail: khedrih@eunet.yu

    2009-10-15

    A short review of the author's research results in the area of the dynamics of pendulum hybrid systems, as well as an analytical approach to the discrete material particle system dynamics containing creep elements with the constitutive stress-strain relation described by the fractional order derivative are presented. The first results presented in this paper are analytical expressions of the modes of three pendulum fractional order system vibrations. It is shown that two time modes (partial solutions) are pure periodical, and four time modes (particular solutions) are 'creeping modes' as a result of the creeping properties influencing standard light elements to the periodical pendulum mode vibrations with corresponding frequencies. By using an analytical approach, for a fractional order hybrid multipendulum system dynamics, eigen main chains, eigen modes and main coordinates are obtained. The second and generalized result concerns the fractional order hybrid multipendulum system dynamics.

  1. Main chains and eigen modes of fractional order hybrid multipendulum system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedrih, Katica R.

    2009-01-01

    A short review of the author's research results in the area of the dynamics of pendulum hybrid systems, as well as an analytical approach to the discrete material particle system dynamics containing creep elements with the constitutive stress-strain relation described by the fractional order derivative are presented. The first results presented in this paper are analytical expressions of the modes of three pendulum fractional order system vibrations. It is shown that two time modes (partial solutions) are pure periodical, and four time modes (particular solutions) are 'creeping modes' as a result of the creeping properties influencing standard light elements to the periodical pendulum mode vibrations with corresponding frequencies. By using an analytical approach, for a fractional order hybrid multipendulum system dynamics, eigen main chains, eigen modes and main coordinates are obtained. The second and generalized result concerns the fractional order hybrid multipendulum system dynamics.

  2. Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As

  3. Simplified Models for Analysis and Design of the Control System Main Loops of CAREM Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etchepareborda, Andres; Flury, Celso

    2000-01-01

    The target of this work is to show a few models developed for control analysis and design of the reactor CAREM's main control loops within a broad range of power (between 40 % and 100%).By one side, it is shown the main features of a analytic model programed in MATLAB.This model is based on fitting steady state points at different power levels of the CAREM's RETRAN model.By the other side, it is shown linear models of black-box type denoting the perturbed behavior of the system for each level power point.These models are identified from temporal responses of CAREM's RETRAN model to perturbed input signals over the different steady power level points.Then the dynamics of these models are verified contrasting the temporal responses of the RETRAN model versus the responses of the MATLAB model and the identified models, in each steady power level point.Also are contrasting the frequency response of the linearization of MATLAB model versus the frequency response of the identified models, in each steady power level point.Either the MATLAB model as the identified models are good enough for the control analysis and design of the three main control loops.The MATLAB model has a few differences against the RETRAN model in the primary pressure output variable, that it must be taken into account in the design of this control loop if this model is used.The aim of these models is to represent in a satisfactory way the dynamics of the plant for a later control analysis and design of the control loops in a frequency range between 0.01 rad/seg and 0.3 rad/seg, and a power range between 40 % and 100 %

  4. COMPARATIVE STUDY ON MAIN SOLVENCY ASSESSMENT MODELS FOR INSURANCE FIELD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Nicoleta SAHLIAN

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available During the recent financial crisis of insurance domain, there were imposed new aspects that have to be taken into account concerning the risks management and surveillance activity. The insurance societies could develop internal models in order to determine the minimum capital requirement imposed by the new regulations that are to be adopted on 1 January 2016. In this respect, the purpose of this research paper is to offer a real presentation and comparing with the main solvency regulation systems used worldwide, the accent being on their common characteristics and current tendencies. Thereby, we would like to offer a better understanding of the similarities and differences between the existent solvency regimes in order to develop the best regime of solvency for Romania within the Solvency II project. The study will show that there are clear differences between the existent Solvency I regime and the new approaches based on risk and will also point out the fact that even the key principles supporting the new solvency regimes are convergent, there are a lot of approaches for the application of these principles. In this context, the question we would try to find the answer is "how could the global solvency models be useful for the financial surveillance authority of Romania for the implementation of general model and for the development of internal solvency models according to the requirements of Solvency II" and "which would be the requirements for the implementation of this type of approach?". This thing makes the analysis of solvency models an interesting exercise.

  5. Computational fluid dynamics analysis of space shuttle main propulsion feed line 17-inch disconnect valves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Max; Pearce, Daniel

    1989-01-01

    A steady incompressible three-dimensional (3-D) viscous flow analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle Main Propulsion External Tank (ET)/Orbiter (ORB) propellant feed line quick separable 17-inch disconnect flapper valves for liquid oxygen (LO2) and liquid hydrogen (LH2). The main objectives of the analysis were to predict and correlate the hydrodynamic stability of the flappers and pressure drop with available water test data. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) computer codes were procured at no cost from the public domain, and were modified and extended to carry out the disconnect flow analysis. The grid generator codes SVTGD3D and INGRID were obtained. NASA Ames Research Center supplied the flow solution code INS3D, and the color graphics code PLOT3D. A driver routine was developed to automate the grid generation process. Components such as pipes, elbows, and flappers can be generated with simple commands, and flapper angles can be varied easily. The flow solver INS3D code was modified to treat interior flappers, and other interfacing routines were developed, which include a turbulence model, a force/moment routine, a time-step routine, and initial and boundary conditions. In particular, an under-relaxation scheme was implemented to enhance the solution stability. Major physical assumptions and simplifications made in the analysis include the neglect of linkages, slightly reduced flapper diameter, and smooth solid surfaces. A grid size of 54 x 21 x 25 was employed for both the LO2 and LH2 units. Mixing length theory applied to turbulent shear flow in pipes formed the basis for the simple turbulence model. Results of the analysis are presented for LO2 and LH2 disconnects.

  6. GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

  7. Thermophysical modeling of main-belt asteroids from WISE data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanuš, J.; Delbó, M.; Durech, J.; Alí-Lagoa, V.

    2014-07-01

    We determine asteroid physical parameters such as size, surface roughness, albedo, and thermal inertia by applying the implementation of the thermophysical model (TPM) of Lagerros (1996; 1997; 1998) to the thermal data obtained by the NASA WISE satellite. We present thermophysical parameters for ˜150 asteroids, which gives us so far the largest sample of asteroids with determined values of thermal inertia. On several individual cases, we discuss the reliability of our determinations and limitations of the TPM method we use. As initial shapes, we adopt convex shape models from the DAMIT database (Durech et al., 2010) and present new determinations based on combined dense and sparse-in-time disk-integrated photometry and the lightcurve inversion method (Kaasalainen & Torppa 2001; Kaasalainen et al., 2001). We use thermal data from the WISE filters W3 and W4, as well as the data observed by the IRAS satellite. However, due to the intriguing accuracy of the fluxes and larger amount of measurements, the WISE data are significantly more important and dominate the modeling. The WISE data are processed the same way as in Alí-Lagoa et al. (2014) for asteroid (341 843) 2008 EV_5. We show the main results of the study of derived thermophysical parameters within the whole population of MBAs and within several asteroid families with the main focus on the thermal inertia. The thermal inertia increases with decreasing size (as previously shown by Delbó et al., 2007), but a large range of thermal inertia values is observed within the similar size ranges between D˜10-100 km. Surprisingly, we derived very low (<10 J m^{-2} s^{-1/2} K^{-1}) thermal inertias for many asteroids (˜20) with various sizes. The range of thermal inertia values is large even within a few asteroid families.

  8. The dynamics of aggregates of galaxies as related to their main galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Einasto, J.; Joeveer, M.; Kaasik, A.; Vennik, J.

    1976-01-01

    The dynamics of the aggregates of galaxies is compared with the dynamics of their member galaxies. It is demonstrated that within a factor 1.5-2 the dispersion of relative line-of-sight velocities is constant from the nuclei of main galaxies to the periphery of an aggregate. This isothermality of aggregates of galaxies is observed in all aggregates studied so far, from poor groups to rich clusters. The fact that the velocity dispersion of stars in galaxies is equal to that of galaxies in aggregates applies only to main galaxies. The stars in all companion galaxies have a smaller velocity dispersion of stars. The dynamical evolution of both galaxies and aggregates of galaxies is very slow. Thus the above data suggest that galaxies and their aggregates were formed together. (orig.) [de

  9. Dynamic imperfections and optimized feedback design in the Compact Linear Collider main linac

    CERN Document Server

    Eliasson, Peder

    2008-01-01

    The Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) main linac is sensitive to dynamic imperfections such as element jitter, injected beam jitter, and ground motion. These effects cause emittance growth that, in case of ground motion, has to be counteracted by a trajectory feedback system. The feedback system itself will, due to jitter effects and imperfect beam position monitors (BPMs), indirectly cause emittance growth. Fast and accurate simulations of both the direct and indirect effects are desirable, but due to the many elements of the CLIC main linac, simulations may become very time consuming. In this paper, an efficient way of simulating linear (or nearly linear) dynamic effects is described. The method is also shown to facilitate the analytic determination of emittance growth caused by the different dynamic imperfections while using a trajectory feedback system. Emittance growth expressions are derived for quadrupole, accelerating structure, and beam jitter, for ground motion, and for noise in the feedback BPMs. Fina...

  10. Main considerations for modelling a station blackout scenario with trace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Querol, Andrea; Turégano, Jara; Lorduy, María; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo, E-mail: anquevi@upv.es, E-mail: jaturna@upv.es, E-mail: maloral@upv.es, E-mail: sergalbe@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Instituto Universitario de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofísica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM), Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain)

    2017-07-01

    In the nuclear safety field, the thermal hydraulic phenomena that take place during an accident in a nuclear power plant is of special importance. One of the most studied accidents is the Station BlackOut (SBO). The aim of the present work is the analysis of the PKL integral test facility nodalization using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE5 to reproduce a SBO accidental scenario. The PKL facility reproduces the main components of the primary and secondary systems of its reference nuclear power plant (Philippsburg II). The results obtained with different nodalization have been compared: 3D vessel vs 1D vessel, Steam Generator (SG) modelling using PIPE or TEE components and pressurizer modelling with PIPE or PRIZER components. Both vessel nodalization (1D vessel and 3D vessel) reproduce the physical phenomena of the experiment. However, there are significant discrepancies between them. The appropriate modelling of the SG is also relevant in the results. Regarding the other nodalization (PIPE or TEE components for SG and PIPE or PRIZER components for pressurizer), do not produce relevant differences in the results. (author)

  11. Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

  12. Business models and dynamic capabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Teece, DJ

    2017-01-01

    © 2017 The Author. Business models, dynamic capabilities, and strategy are interdependent. The strength of a firm's dynamic capabilities help shape its proficiency at business model design. Through its effect on organization design, a business model influences the firm's dynamic capabilities and places bounds on the feasibility of particular strategies. While these relationships are understood at a theoretical level, there is a need for future empirical work to flesh out the details. In parti...

  13. Dynamic modeling for pandemic influenza

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, M.J.

    It is now widely agreed upon that most infectious diseases require a dynamic approach to validly analyze infectious disease control. Given the size of the spread and the potential impact, pandemic influenza certainly presents an area where dynamic modeling is much needed. In this article, a dynamic

  14. Applying the Dufournaud econometric model to the determination of the prices dynamics impact over the national economy and over its main vulnerable sectors in connection with the Romanian national economy specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Claudia Serban

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In economics, a model represents an abstract, formal image of a phenomenon, process or economic system. It is built by symbolically reproducing the economic theory and by getting new information regarding the behavior of the objective being investigated. In economic theory there are several integrated econometric models meant to underline the interdependency between the branches of a national economy by the public utilities services, especially those connected to energy. The present article presents the first results of our efforts of building an econometric model adapted to the specificity of the Romanian economy, that would underline the impact of the prices modification for public utilities on the Romanian economy as a hole, on the competitiveness of Romanian companies and on the inflation.

  15. Dynamic Characteristics and Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    , sitting or standing posture, and that these persons influence the dynamic characteristics of the floor (floor frequency and floor damping) is demonstrated in the paper. The mechanism of the dynamic interaction between the floor mass and the mass of stationary persons is generally not well understood...

  16. Main Effect QTL with Dominance Determines Heterosis for Dynamic Plant Height in Upland Cotton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Lianguang; Ma, Lingling; Wang, Yumei; Su, Ying; Wang, Xiaocui; Li, Yuhua; Abduweli, Abdugheni; Cai, Shihu; Liu, Fang; Wang, Kunbo; Hua, Jinping

    2016-10-13

    Plant height, which shows dynamic development and heterosis, is a major trait affecting plant architecture and has an indirect influence on economic yield related to biological yield in cotton. In the present study, we carried out dynamic analysis for plant height and its heterosis by quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping at multiple developmental stages using two recombinant inbred lines (RILs) and their backcross progeny. At the single-locus level, 47 QTL were identified at five developmental stages in two hybrids. In backcross populations, QTL identified at an early stage mainly showed partial effects and QTL detected at a later stage mostly displayed overdominance effects. At the two-locus level, we found that main effect QTL played a more important role than epistatic QTL in the expression of heterosis in backcross populations. Therefore, this study implies that the genetic basis of plant height heterosis shows dynamic character and main effect QTL with dominance determines heterosis for plant height in Upland cotton. Copyright © 2016 Shang et al.

  17. Main Effect QTL with Dominance Determines Heterosis for Dynamic Plant Height in Upland Cotton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianguang Shang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Plant height, which shows dynamic development and heterosis, is a major trait affecting plant architecture and has an indirect influence on economic yield related to biological yield in cotton. In the present study, we carried out dynamic analysis for plant height and its heterosis by quantitative trait loci (QTL mapping at multiple developmental stages using two recombinant inbred lines (RILs and their backcross progeny. At the single-locus level, 47 QTL were identified at five developmental stages in two hybrids. In backcross populations, QTL identified at an early stage mainly showed partial effects and QTL detected at a later stage mostly displayed overdominance effects. At the two-locus level, we found that main effect QTL played a more important role than epistatic QTL in the expression of heterosis in backcross populations. Therefore, this study implies that the genetic basis of plant height heterosis shows dynamic character and main effect QTL with dominance determines heterosis for plant height in Upland cotton.

  18. Structural dynamic modifications via models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of structural dynamic optimization techniques. A review of structural optimization in vibratory environments is given by Rao (1989). 2. SDM techniques. SDM methods may be broadly divided into two groups. Those which employ a model of the structure and those that use dynamic test data directly. The model used by the ...

  19. A Stochastic Dynamic Model of Computer Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunming Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic computer virus spread model is proposed and its dynamic behavior is fully investigated. Specifically, we prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions, and the stability of the virus-free equilibrium and viral equilibrium by constructing Lyapunov functions and applying Ito's formula. Some numerical simulations are finally given to illustrate our main results.

  20. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  1. Imitative modeling automatic system Control of steam pressure in the main steam collector with the influence on the main Servomotor steam turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriushin, A. V.; Zverkov, V. P.; Kuzishchin, V. F.; Ryzhkov, O. S.; Sabanin, V. R.

    2017-11-01

    The research and setting results of steam pressure in the main steam collector “Do itself” automatic control system (ACS) with high-speed feedback on steam pressure in the turbine regulating stage are presented. The ACS setup is performed on the simulation model of the controlled object developed for this purpose with load-dependent static and dynamic characteristics and a non-linear control algorithm with pulse control of the turbine main servomotor. A method for tuning nonlinear ACS with a numerical algorithm for multiparametric optimization and a procedure for separate dynamic adjustment of control devices in a two-loop ACS are proposed and implemented. It is shown that the nonlinear ACS adjusted with the proposed method with the regulators constant parameters ensures reliable and high-quality operation without the occurrence of oscillations in the transient processes the operating range of the turbine loads.

  2. [Simulation on spatiotemporal dynamics of main prey populations of Panthera tigris in East Wanda Mountains].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qing-Xi; Gao, Mei-Xiang; Wang, Hua-Ru

    2008-07-01

    By using landscape-level animal population simulator (LAPS), the spatiotemporal dynamics of the main prey populations of Panthera tigris from 1990 to 2009 in East Wanda Mountains were simulated, based on the different scenarios of accidental mortality and carrying capacity that could represent the influence of direct and indirect human disturbance. The effects of the accidental mortality and carrying capacity on the population dynamics were studied, and the spatiotemporal distribution of animal blocks was exhibited explicitly in the study area, with the individual density in different patches compared. The results showed that compared with carrying capacity, accidental mortality had more effects on prey populations, and the population density was significantly higher in shrubs than in broad-leaved forests. The conclusions made in this study could provide scientific basis for the conservation and management of P. tigris' s preys in East Wanda Mountains, while the quantitative validation of the conclusions still needs further investigation.

  3. Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

  4. Online Learning of Industrial Manipulators' Dynamics Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polydoros, Athanasios

    2017-01-01

    The robotics industry has introduced light-weight compliant manipulators to increase the safety during human-robot interaction. This characteristic is achieved by replacing the stiff actuators of the traditional robots with compliant ones which creates challenges in the analytical derivation...... of the dynamics models. Those mainly derive from physics-based methods and thus they are based on physical properties which are hard to be calculated.  In this thesis, is presented, a novel online machine learning approach  which is able to model both inverse and forward dynamics models of industrial manipulators......, it was compared with multiple other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the thesis presents the application of the proposed learning method on robot control for achieving trajectory execution while learning the inverse dynamics models  on-the-fly . Also it is presented the application...

  5. Review report on the dynamical study of the main building of the Paks NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatti, F.

    1995-01-01

    The present report deals with the review of the report 'Dynamical Study of the main building of the Paks NPP', issued by Paks NPP (Hungary) on April, 1993, within the frame of the IAEA benchmark study for the seismic analysis and testing of an existing Nuclear Power Plant (M), and on behalf of ENEL DSR/VDN Rome, in the aims of the nuclear activities of ENEL DSR/VDN (Rome). After a foreword to define the aims of the job (Chapter 1) and the identification of the scope of the work (Chapter 2), a short list of references is given (Chapter 3). In Chapter 4, the criteria followed in the review activity are listed; in Chapter 5, the contents of the Paks NPP report are summarized. In Chapter 6 the results of the review are given, while the main conclusions of the review activities are summarized in the Chapter 7. (author)

  6. Dynamic programming models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Denardo, Eric V

    2003-01-01

    Introduction to sequential decision processes covers use of dynamic programming in studying models of resource allocation, methods for approximating solutions of control problems in continuous time, production control, more. 1982 edition.

  7. Dynamical models of the Galaxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMillan P.J.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available I discuss the importance of dynamical models for exploiting survey data, focusing on the advantages of “torus” models. I summarize a number of applications of these models to the study of the Milky Way, including the determination of the peculiar Solar velocity and investigation of the Hyades moving group.

  8. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    pricing factors using the sequential regression approach. Our findings suggest that the two models largely provide the same in-sample fit, but loadings from ordinary and risk-adjusted Campbell-Shiller regressions are generally best matched by the shadow rate models. We also find that the shadow rate...... models perform better than the QTSMs when forecasting bond yields out of sample....

  9. Dynamic Modeling of ALS Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of dynamic modeling and simulation of Advanced Life Support (ALS) systems is to help design them. Static steady state systems analysis provides basic information and is necessary to guide dynamic modeling, but static analysis is not sufficient to design and compare systems. ALS systems must respond to external input variations and internal off-nominal behavior. Buffer sizing, resupply scheduling, failure response, and control system design are aspects of dynamic system design. We develop two dynamic mass flow models and use them in simulations to evaluate systems issues, optimize designs, and make system design trades. One model is of nitrogen leakage in the space station, the other is of a waste processor failure in a regenerative life support system. Most systems analyses are concerned with optimizing the cost/benefit of a system at its nominal steady-state operating point. ALS analysis must go beyond the static steady state to include dynamic system design. All life support systems exhibit behavior that varies over time. ALS systems must respond to equipment operating cycles, repair schedules, and occasional off-nominal behavior or malfunctions. Biological components, such as bioreactors, composters, and food plant growth chambers, usually have operating cycles or other complex time behavior. Buffer sizes, material stocks, and resupply rates determine dynamic system behavior and directly affect system mass and cost. Dynamic simulation is needed to avoid the extremes of costly over-design of buffers and material reserves or system failure due to insufficient buffers and lack of stored material.

  10. Model describes subsea control dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-02-01

    A mathematical model of the hydraulic control systems for subsea completions and their umbilicals has been developed and applied successfully to Jabiru and Challis field production projects in the Timor Sea. The model overcomes the limitations of conventional linear steady state models and yields for the hydraulic system an accurate description of its dynamic response, including the valve shut-in times and the pressure transients. Results of numerical simulations based on the model are in good agreement with measurements of the dynamic response of the tree valves and umbilicals made during land testing.

  11. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for the main 8 Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digital elevation model (DEM) data are arrays of regularly spaced elevation values referenced horizontally either to a Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection...

  12. Modeling Asset Price Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranasinghe P. K. C. Malmini

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We model the price prediction in Sri Lankan stock market using Ising model and some recent developments in statistical physics techniques. In contrast to usual agent-models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the centre, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study this problem. The analysis was based on All share price index, Milanka price index in Colombo Stock Exchange and Simulated Price Process. The monthly and daily influences of the above indices to the Sri Lankan economy were also investigated. The model thus describes the spread of opinions traders.

  13. Mathematical modeling of wiped-film evaporators. [MAIN codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sommerfeld, J.T.

    1976-05-01

    A mathematical model and associated computer program were developed to simulate the steady-state operation of wiped-film evaporators for the concentration of typical waste solutions produced at the Savannah River Plant. In this model, which treats either a horizontal or a vertical wiped-film evaporator as a plug-flow device with no backmixing, three fundamental phenomena are described: sensible heating of the waste solution, vaporization of water, and crystallization of solids from solution. Physical property data were coded into the computer program, which performs the calculations of this model. Physical properties of typical waste solutions and of the heating steam, generally as analytical functions of temperature, were obtained from published data or derived by regression analysis of tabulated or graphical data. Preliminary results from tests of the Savannah River Laboratory semiworks wiped-film evaporators were used to select a correlation for the inside film heat transfer coefficient. This model should be a useful aid in the specification, operation, and control of the full-scale wiped-film evaporators proposed for application under plant conditions. In particular, it should be of value in the development and analysis of feed-forward control schemes for the plant units. Also, this model can be readily adapted, with only minor changes, to simulate the operation of wiped-film evaporators for other conceivable applications, such as the concentration of acid wastes.

  14. Liquid-particle model for nuclear dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strutinsky, V.; Magner, A.

    1983-01-01

    The liquid-particle model for nuclear dynamics is discussed. Combined liquid-quantum dynamics is described. In solving the dynamic problem the nuclear surface as a dynamic variable is introduced. The giant zeroth-sound resonances are studied

  15. The Main Cognitive Model of Visual Recognition: Contour Recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, YongHong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we will study the following pattern recognition problem: Every pattern is a 3-dimensional graph, its surface can be split up into some regions, every region is composed of the pixels with the approximately same colour value and the approximately same depth value that is distance to eyes, and there may also be some contours, e.g., literal contours, on a surface of every pattern. For this problem we reveal the inherent laws. Moreover, we establish a cognitive model to reflect the...

  16. Modeling Internet Topology Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, H.; Uhlig, S.; Moore, A.; Mortier, R.; Rio, M.

    Despite the large number of papers on network topology modeling and inference, there still exists ambiguity about the real nature of the Internet AS and router level topology. While recent findings have illustrated the inaccuracies in maps inferred from BGP peering and traceroute measurements,

  17. Modelling group dynamic animal movement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langrock, Roland; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Blackwell, Paul G.

    2014-01-01

    in non-ideal scenarios, we show that generally the estimation of models of this type is both feasible and ecologically informative. We illustrate the approach using real movement data from 11 reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Results indicate a directional bias towards a group centroid for reindeer......Group dynamic movement is a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognised, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However......, to date, practical statistical methods which can include group dynamics in animal movement models have been lacking. We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual...

  18. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  19. Main Dynamics of the Transition from Industrial Society to Information Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaşar Tonta

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Society is based on mass production and mass distribution of standardized goods and services. The objective of companies is to reduce the unit cost by producing and distributing the same goods in large quantities cheaper than their competitors. Mass production and mass distribution requires an economic model based on centralization; mechanistical, rigid/hierarchical organizational structures; and traditional education. Companies act on the basis of the logic of “produce, store, and sell”. Information Society on the other hand is an indication of a more complex and richer social structure. The objective of companies is to produce mass customized and personalized goods and services for their customers. The customer can buy a personalized good or service with the best price from anywhere in the world. Called “The Age of Terrific Deal” by Robert B. Reich, Information Society requires an economic model based on personalization; dynamic and flat organizational structures; and customer focused education. Companies must act on the basis of the logic of “sell, produce, and deliver”. This paper discusses the major changes that take place during the transition from Industrial Society to Information Society along with basic dynamics of the Information Society.

  20. Modeling of the filling and cooling processes of hot fuel mains in Liquid Fuel Rocket Power Plant (LFRPP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prisnyakov, V. F.; Pokrishkin, V. V.; Serebryansky, V. N.

    A mathematical model of heat and mass exchange processes during filling and cooling of hot fuel mains of the Liquid Fuel Rocket Power Plant (LFRPP), which allows to define a mass consumption and distribution of two-phase flow parameters by the length of pipeline. Results of calculations are compared with experimental data, taken during filling of the main with a supply of liquid oxygen from the tank into the combustion chamber. Also, the results of modeling of hydrogen main dynamic characteristics of LFRPP in the same conditions are given.

  1. A dynamical model of terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdaus Udwadia

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a dynamical model of terrorism. We consider the population in a given region as being made up of three primary components: terrorists, those susceptible to both terrorist and pacifist propaganda, and nonsusceptibles, or pacifists. The dynamical behavior of these three populations is studied using a model that incorporates the effects of both direct military/police intervention to reduce the terrorist population, and nonviolent, persuasive intervention to influence the susceptibles to become pacifists. The paper proposes a new paradigm for studying terrorism, and looks at the long-term dynamical evolution in time of these three population components when such interventions are carried out. Many important features—some intuitive, others not nearly so—of the nature of terrorism emerge from the dynamical model proposed, and they lead to several important policy implications for the management of terrorism. The different circumstances in which nonviolent intervention and/or military/police intervention may be beneficial, and the specific conditions under which each mode of intervention, or a combination of both, may be useful, are obtained. The novelty of the model presented herein is that it deals with the time evolution of terrorist activity. It appears to be one of the few models that can be tested, evaluated, and improved upon, through the use of actual field data.

  2. OBSERVATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF MAIN-BELT COMET P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, Henry H.; Yang Bin; Haghighipour, Nader; Jedicke, Robert; Wainscoat, Richard J.; Denneau, Larry; Kaluna, Heather M.; Kleyna, Jan [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu HI 96822 (United States); Novakovic, Bojan [Department of Astronomy, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 16, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Abe, Shinsuke; Chen Wenping; Ip, Wing; Kinoshita, Daisuke [Institute of Astronomy, National Central University, 300 Jhongda Rd, Jhongli 32001, Taiwan (China); Fitzsimmons, Alan; Lacerda, Pedro [Astronomy Research Centre, Queens University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Granvik, Mikael [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 64, 00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Grav, Tommy [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Knight, Matthew M. [Lowell Observatory, 1400 West Mars Hill Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 (United States); Lisse, Carey M. [Planetary Exploration Group, Space Department, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Maclennan, Eric, E-mail: hsieh@ifa.hawaii.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northern Arizona University, 602 South Humphreys Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 (United States); and others

    2012-05-15

    We present observations of the recently discovered comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope (operated by the MiNDSTEp consortium) at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed to be present from 2010 August through 2011 February, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from 2010 December through 2011 August. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between 2010 August and December, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H{sub R} = 17.9 {+-} 0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of {approx}0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p = 0.05. Comparing the observed scattering surface areas of the dust coma to that of the nucleus when P/La Sagra was active, we find dust-to-nucleus area ratios of A{sub d} /A{sub N} = 30-60, comparable to those computed for fellow main-belt comets 238P/Read and P/2008 R1 (Garradd), and one to two orders of magnitude larger than for two other main-belt comets (133P/Elst-Pizarro and 176P/LINEAR). Using optical spectroscopy to search for CN emission, we do not detect any conclusive evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q{sub CN} < 6 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 23} mol s{sup -1}, from which we infer an H{sub 2}O production rate of Q{sub H{sub 2O}} < 10{sup 26} mol s{sup -1}. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr

  3. The dynamics of coastal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearn, Clifford J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal basins are defined as estuaries, lagoons, and embayments. This book deals with the science of coastal basins using simple models, many of which are presented in either analytical form or Microsoft Excel or MATLAB. The book introduces simple hydrodynamics and its applications, from the use of simple box and one-dimensional models to flow over coral reefs. The book also emphasizes models as a scientific tool in our understanding of coasts, and introduces the value of the most modern flexible mesh combined wave-current models. Examples from shallow basins around the world illustrate the wonders of the scientific method and the power of simple dynamics. This book is ideal for use as an advanced textbook for graduate students and as an introduction to the topic for researchers, especially those from other fields of science needing a basic understanding of the basic ideas of the dynamics of coastal basins.

  4. Traffic flow dynamics data, models and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Treiber, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on ...

  5. Simulation of streamflow in the Pleasant, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, and Royal Rivers, Maine, using watershed models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in 2008 to investigate anticipated changes in summer streamflows and stream temperatures in four coastal Maine river basins and the potential effects of those changes on populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. To achieve this purpose, it was necessary to characterize the quantity and timing of streamflow in these rivers by developing and evaluating a distributed-parameter watershed model for a part of each river basin by using the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The GIS (geographic information system) Weasel, a USGS software application, was used to delineate the four study basins and their many subbasins, and to derive parameters for their geographic features. The models were calibrated using a four-step optimization procedure in which model output was evaluated against four datasets for calibrating solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water balances, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs that used the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The calibrated watershed models performed satisfactorily, in that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration periods ranged from 0.59 to 0.75 (on a scale of negative infinity to 1) and NSE statistic values for the evaluation periods ranged from 0.55 to 0.73. The calibrated watershed models simulate daily streamflow at many locations in each study basin. These models enable natural resources managers to characterize the timing and amount of streamflow in order to support a variety of water-resources efforts including water-quality calculations, assessments of water use, modeling of population dynamics and migration of Atlantic salmon, modeling and assessment of habitat, and simulation of anticipated changes to streamflow and water temperature

  6. The main trends of dynamics of incomes of Russians in times of economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. L. Petryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all

  7. Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Wikramaratna

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Population epidemiological models where hosts can be infected sequentially by different strains have the potential to help us understand many important diseases. Researchers have in recent years started to develop and use such models, but the extra layer of complexity from multiple strains brings with it many technical challenges. It is therefore hard to build models which have realistic assumptions yet are tractable. Here we outline some of the main challenges in this area. First we begin with the fundamental question of how to translate from complex small-scale dynamics within a host to useful population models. Next we consider the nature of so-called “strain space”. We describe two key types of host heterogeneities, and explain how models could help generate a better understanding of their effects. Finally, for diseases with many strains, we consider the challenge of modelling how immunity accumulates over multiple exposures.

  8. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  9. Downeast Drainage - Examining and Communicating the Dynamics of Bacteria Pollution Events in the Gulf of Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. M.; Brady, D. C.; Cole, K. L.; Jones, S.; McGreavy, B.; Petersen, C.; Rothenheber, D.; Gerard, B.; Roy, S. G.

    2015-12-01

    The New England Sustainability Consortium is an interdisciplinary NSF EPSCoR funded project organized to strengthen the connections between science and decision-making and to advance the practice of sustainability science. The project uses complementary research capacity at several institutions to examine watershed and estuarine processes linked to bacteria pollution affecting shellfish harvesting and beach water quality in the Gulf of Maine. A fundamental research target is the development of a better approach for the prediction of coastal bacteria pollution events that can cause losses in tourism and shellfishery revenue. Enhanced prediction and communication of the events require a simultaneous examination of watershed pollution sources, drainage systems, estuarine residence times and bacterial survival. Our presentation will summarize initial observations from our investigations and stakeholder engagement activities at two project reference sites located in Wells and Bar Harbor, Maine. These will include field measurements, watershed and estuarine modeling outcomes, and stakeholder engagement results that are framed to quantify and explain land-sea interactions linked to bacterial pollution events in locations with varied relief, hydrodynamics, and stakeholder communities.

  10. Assets and poverty status dynamics in 5 main regions in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purna Fitria

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Comparing household expenditure and national poverty line, about 24.78% of households in Indonesia experienced poverty (expenditure below the poverty line at least once within 14-year period. By utilizing the Ordered Logit Model, this study examines the determinants of household poverty status and analyses the relative effect of different household assets and characteristics on their poverty status. Employing three waves of Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS consisting of household level data from the year of 2000, 2007 and 2014 and categorized households into five main regions based on their location. This study finds that assets (building, vehicle, jewellery, and savings play important role in determining poverty status of households in Indonesia. Some demographic and socio-economic variables are confirmed to be statistically significant to poverty status in Indonesia. However, the determinants of poverty status vary within regions.

  11. Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...... insight. It is based on a sensitivity approach that is useful for choice of model structure, for experiment design, and for accuracy verification. The method is implemented in the Matlab toolkit Senstools. The method and the presentation have been developed with generally preferred learning styles in mind...

  12. Simple mathematical models of gene regulatory dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Mackey, Michael C; Tyran-Kamińska, Marta; Zeron, Eduardo S

    2016-01-01

    This is a short and self-contained introduction to the field of mathematical modeling of gene-networks in bacteria. As an entry point to the field, we focus on the analysis of simple gene-network dynamics. The notes commence with an introduction to the deterministic modeling of gene-networks, with extensive reference to applicable results coming from dynamical systems theory. The second part of the notes treats extensively several approaches to the study of gene-network dynamics in the presence of noise—either arising from low numbers of molecules involved, or due to noise external to the regulatory process. The third and final part of the notes gives a detailed treatment of three well studied and concrete examples of gene-network dynamics by considering the lactose operon, the tryptophan operon, and the lysis-lysogeny switch. The notes contain an index for easy location of particular topics as well as an extensive bibliography of the current literature. The target audience of these notes are mainly graduat...

  13. Dynamical symmetries of the shell model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Isacker, P

    2000-07-01

    The applications of spectrum generating algebras and of dynamical symmetries in the nuclear shell model are many and varied. They stretch back to Wigner's early work on the supermultiplet model and encompass important landmarks in our understanding of the structure of the atomic nucleus such as Racah's SU(2) pairing model and Elliot's SU(3) rotational model. One of the aims of this contribution has been to show the historical importance of the idea of dynamical symmetry in nuclear physics. Another has been to indicate that, in spite of being old, this idea continues to inspire developments that are at the forefront of today's research in nuclear physics. It has been argued in this contribution that the main driving features of nuclear structure can be represented algebraically but at the same time the limitations of the symmetry approach must be recognised. It should be clear that such approach can only account for gross properties and that any detailed description requires more involved numerical calculations of which we have seen many fine examples during this symposium. In this way symmetry techniques can be used as an appropriate starting point for detailed calculations. A noteworthy example of this approach is the pseudo-SU(3) model which starting from its initial symmetry Ansatz has grown into an adequate and powerful description of the nucleus in terms of a truncated shell model. (author)

  14. Multiscale modeling of pedestrian dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cristiani, Emiliano; Tosin, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    This book presents mathematical models and numerical simulations of crowd dynamics. The core topic is the development of a new multiscale paradigm, which bridges the microscopic and macroscopic scales taking the most from each of them for capturing the relevant clues of complexity of crowds. The background idea is indeed that most of the complex trends exhibited by crowds are due to an intrinsic interplay between individual and collective behaviors. The modeling approach promoted in this book pursues actively this intuition and profits from it for designing general mathematical structures susceptible of application also in fields different from the inspiring original one. The book considers also the two most traditional points of view: the microscopic one, in which pedestrians are tracked individually, and the macroscopic one, in which pedestrians are assimilated to a continuum. Selected existing models are critically analyzed. The work is addressed to researchers and graduate students.

  15. Modelling the main ionospheric trough using the Electron Density Assimilative Model (EDAM) with assimilated GPS TEC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, James A. D.; Eleri Pryse, S.; Jackson-Booth, Natasha; Buckland, Rachel A.

    2018-01-01

    The main ionospheric trough is a large-scale spatial depletion in the electron density distribution at the interface between the high- and mid-latitude ionosphere. In western Europe it appears in early evening, progresses equatorward during the night, and retreats rapidly poleward at dawn. It exhibits substantial day-to-day variability and under conditions of increased geomagnetic activity it moves progressively to lower latitudes. Steep gradients on the trough-walls on either side of the trough minimum, and their variability, can cause problems for radio applications. Numerous studies have sought to characterize and quantify the trough behaviour. The Electron Density Assimilative Model (EDAM) models the ionosphere on a global scale. It assimilates observations into a background ionosphere, the International Reference Ionosphere 2007 (IRI2007), to provide a full 3-D representation of the ionospheric plasma distribution at specified times and days. This current investigation studied the capability of EDAM to model the ionosphere in the region of the main trough. Total electron content (TEC) measurements from 46 GPS stations in western Europe from September to December 2002 were assimilated into EDAM to provide a model of the ionosphere in the trough region. Vertical electron content profiles through the model revealed the trough and the detail of its structure. Statistical results are presented of the latitude of the trough minimum, TEC at the minimum and of other defined parameters that characterize the trough structure. The results are compared with previous observations made with the Navy Ionospheric Monitoring System (NIMS), and reveal the potential of EDAM to model the large-scale structure of the ionosphere.

  16. Conceptual Model of Dynamic Geographic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martínez-Rosales Miguel Alejandro

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In geographic environments, there are many and different types of geographic entities such as automobiles, trees, persons, buildings, storms, hurricanes, etc. These entities can be classified into two groups: geographic objects and geographic phenomena. By its nature, a geographic environment is dynamic, thus, it’s static modeling is not sufficient. Considering the dynamics of geographic environment, a new type of geographic entity called event is introduced. The primary target is a modeling of geographic environment as an event sequence, because in this case the semantic relations are much richer than in the case of static modeling. In this work, the conceptualization of this model is proposed. It is based on the idea to process each entity apart instead of processing the environment as a whole. After that, the so called history of each entity and its spatial relations to other entities are defined to describe the whole environment. The main goal is to model systems at a conceptual level that make use of spatial and temporal information, so that later it can serve as the semantic engine for such systems.

  17. Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

    2002-01-01

    Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

  18. CoDCon Dynamic Modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Co-Decontamination (CoDCon) Demonstration project is designed to test the separation of a mixed U and Pu product from dissolved spent nuclear fuel. The primary purpose of the project is to quantify the accuracy and precision to which a U/Pu mass ratio can be achieved without removing a pure Pu product. The system includes an on-line monitoring system using spectroscopy to monitor the ratios throughout the process. A dynamic model of the CoDCon flowsheet and on-line monitoring system was developed in order to expand the range of scenarios that can be examined for process control and determine overall measurement uncertainty. The model development and initial results are presented here.

  19. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RIVERBOAT DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Grm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Present work describes a simple dynamical model for riverboat motion based on the square drag law. Air and water interactions with the boat are determined from aerodynamic coefficients. CFX simulations were performed with fully developed turbulent flow to determine boat aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary angle of attack for the air and water portions separately. The effect of wave resistance is negligible compared to other forces. Boat movement analysis considers only two-dimensional motion, therefore only six aerodynamics coefficients are required. The proposed model is solved and used to determine the critical environmental parameters (wind and current under which river navigation can be conducted safely. Boat simulator was tested in a single area on the Ljubljanica river and estimated critical wind velocity.

  20. Characterizing and Modeling Citation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Fortunato, Santo

    2011-01-01

    Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well. PMID:21966387

  1. Dynamical modeling of tidal streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovy, Jo

    2014-01-01

    I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.

  2. Dynamic object-oriented geospatial modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Richta

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Published literature about moving objects (MO simplifies the problem to the representation and storage of moving points, moving lines, or moving regions. The main insufficiency of this approach is lack of MO inner structure and dynamics modeling – the autonomy of moving agent. This paper describes basics of the object-oriented geospatial methodology for modeling complex systems consisting of agents, which move within spatial environment. The main idea is that during the agent movement, different kinds of connections with other moving or stationary objects are established or disposed, based on some spatial constraint satisfaction or nonfulfilment respectively. The methodology is constructed with regard to following two main conditions – 1 the inner behavior of agents should be represented by any formalism, e.g.  Petri net, finite state machine, etc., and 2 the spatial characteristic of environment should be supplied by any information system, that is able to store defined set of spatial types, and support defined set of spatial operations. Finally, the methodology is demonstrated on simple simulation model of tram transportation system.

  3. Bayesian interference in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models: three essays.

    OpenAIRE

    Ciccarelli, Matteo

    2001-01-01

    The task of this work is to discuss issues conceming the specification, estimation, inference and forecasting in multivariate dynamic heterogeneous panel data models from a Bayesian perspective. Three essays linked by a few conraion ideas compose the work. Multivariate dynamic models (mainly VARs) based on micro or macro panel data sets have become increasingly popular in macroeconomics, especially to study the transmission of real and monetary shocks across economies. This great use...

  4. Dynamic Trust Models between Users over Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-30

    the- art hTrust and its variants for solving the trust -link prediction problem. In addition to the above main research results, we developed a...AFRL-AFOSR-JP-TR-2016-0039 Dynamic Trust Models between Users over Social Networks Kazumi Saito University Of Shizuoka Final Report 04/05/2016...2013 to 30-03-2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE (134042) Dynamic Trust Models between Users over Social Networks 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA2386-13-1

  5. Dynamical Modeling of Mars' Paleoclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark I.

    2004-01-01

    This report summarizes work undertaken under a one-year grant from the NASA Mars Fundamental Research Program. The goal of the project was to initiate studies of the response of the Martian climate to changes in planetary obliquity and orbital elements. This work was undertaken with a three-dimensional numerical climate model based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Skyhi General Circulation Model (GCM). The Mars GCM code was adapted to simulate various obliquity and orbital parameter states. Using a version of the model with a basic water cycle (ice caps, vapor, and clouds), we examined changes in atmospheric water abundances and in the distribution of water ice sheets on the surface. This work resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets. In addition, the project saw the initial incorporation of a regolith water transport and storage scheme into the model. This scheme allows for interaction between water in the pores of the near subsurface (Mars Fundamental Research Program in late 2003.

  6. Dynamics of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae seroconversion and infection in pigs in the three main production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacomini, Enrico; Ferrari, Nicola; Pitozzi, Alessandra; Remistani, Michela; Giardiello, Daniele; Maes, Dominiek; Alborali, Giovanni Loris

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we investigated the dynamics of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae infections in 66 pig farms, with different production systems (one-, two-, and three-site systems), and considered different risk factors. Serological assay was used to detect serum antibodies against M. hyopneumoniae and real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect M. hyopneumoniae DNA in tracheobronchial swabs. Results demonstrated that M. hyopneumoniae infection status was predominantly influenced by the age of the animals and the type of production system. Infection rates were higher in older animals and the prevalence was higher in the one- and two-site systems than in the three-site systems. Dynamics of infection by RT-PCR showed that earlier M. hyopneumoniae infection on one-site farms occurs earlier, while on two- and three-site farms occurs later but spreads faster, suggesting that contact between animals of different age favors the transmission.

  7. Main Dynamics of Turkish-African Relations in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Therence Atabong Njuafac

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on an overview of Turkey’s increased engagement towards Africa, especially in terms of its potentials, future perspectives and limits of the relations. It portrays and examines the main essence of Turkey’s foreign policy in Africa, and equally analyses the main reason or aspects behind the relations with Africa within the 21st century. It tries to answer the questions of why Turkey has so much interest in Africa now. In other words, it explores more the economic interaction (diplomacy that fosters the relations between Turkey and Africa in the 21st century. It equally shows the economic aspects as key instrument in building relations between Turkey and Africa. This continent known as Africa in the 90s was never a concern to Turkey as it is in this 21st century, since Turkey paid more attention to its relations with the West, and its close neighbors like Middle East, Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia. It discusses some of the main political, economic, religious, cultural and strategic motivations behind Turkey’s interest in Africa, as well as some of the challenges face along the line in the 21st century. This paper consists of three main sections. The first section presents the relations between Turkey and Africa during Ottoman Empire, Turkish foreign policy toward Africa in Cold War period. It also gives an overview of Turkey’s relations with Africa, Turkey’s policy in Africa and the main elements shaping relations between Turkey and Africa. Then, the various approaches, mainly economic diplomacy approach in maintaining relations between Turkey and Africa in the 21st century are presented.Turkey’s increasing use of soft power strategies drive a great desire to tie both the economy of Turkey and Africa more closely. From the aforementioned, Turkey’s soft power content ranges from professional and cultural exchange, agriculture, and humanitarian assistance.

  8. VERA-CS Modeling and Simulation of PWR Main Steam Line Break Core Response to DNB

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salko, Robert K [ORNL; Sung, Yixing [Westinghouse Electric Company, Cranberry Township; Kucukboyaci, Vefa [Westinghouse Electric Company, Cranberry Township; Xu, Yiban [Westinghouse Electric Company, Cranberry Township; Cao, Liping [Westinghouse Electric Company, Cranberry Township

    2016-01-01

    The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications core simulator (VERA-CS) being developed by the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) includes coupled neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel temperature components with an isotopic depletion capability. The neutronics capability employed is based on MPACT, a three-dimensional (3-D) whole core transport code. The thermal-hydraulics and fuel temperature models are provided by the COBRA-TF (CTF) subchannel code. As part of the CASL development program, the VERA-CS (MPACT/CTF) code system was applied to model and simulate reactor core response with respect to departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) at the limiting time step of a postulated pressurized water reactor (PWR) main steamline break (MSLB) event initiated at the hot zero power (HZP), either with offsite power available and the reactor coolant pumps in operation (high-flow case) or without offsite power where the reactor core is cooled through natural circulation (low-flow case). The VERA-CS simulation was based on core boundary conditions from the RETRAN-02 system transient calculations and STAR-CCM+ computational fluid dynamics (CFD) core inlet distribution calculations. The evaluation indicated that the VERA-CS code system is capable of modeling and simulating quasi-steady state reactor core response under the steamline break (SLB) accident condition, the results are insensitive to uncertainties in the inlet flow distributions from the CFD simulations, and the high-flow case is more DNB limiting than the low-flow case.

  9. High Resolution Modelling of the Congo River's Multi-Threaded Main Stem Hydraulics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, A. B.; Trigg, M.; Tshimanga, R.; Neal, J. C.; Borman, D.; Smith, M. W.; Bola, G.; Kabuya, P.; Mushie, C. A.; Tschumbu, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    We present the results of a summer 2017 field campaign by members of the Congo River users Hydraulics and Morphology (CRuHM) project, and a subsequent reach-scale hydraulic modelling study on the Congo's main stem. Sonar bathymetry, ADCP transects, and water surface elevation data have been collected along the Congo's heavily multi-threaded middle reach, which exhibits complex in-channel hydraulic processes that are not well understood. To model the entire basin's hydrodynamics, these in-channel hydraulic processes must be parameterised since it is not computationally feasible to represent them explicitly. Furthermore, recent research suggests that relative to other large global rivers, in-channel flows on the Congo represent a relatively large proportion of total flow through the river-floodplain system. We therefore regard sufficient representation of in-channel hydraulic processes as a Congo River hydrodynamic research priority. To enable explicit representation of in-channel hydraulics, we develop a reach-scale (70 km), high resolution hydraulic model. Simulation of flow through individual channel threads provides new information on flow depths and velocities, and will be used to inform the parameterisation of a broader basin-scale hydrodynamic model. The basin-scale model will ultimately be used to investigate floodplain fluxes, flood wave attenuation, and the impact of future hydrological change scenarios on basin hydrodynamics. This presentation will focus on the methodology we use to develop a reach-scale bathymetric DEM. The bathymetry of only a small proportion of channel threads can realistically be captured, necessitating some estimation of the bathymetry of channels not surveyed. We explore different approaches to this bathymetry estimation, and the extent to which it influences hydraulic model predictions. The CRuHM project is a consortium comprising the Universities of Kinshasa, Rhodes, Dar es Salaam, Bristol, and Leeds, and is funded by Royal

  10. Agent-based modeling and network dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Namatame, Akira

    2016-01-01

    The book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The book begins with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling’s segregation model and Axelrod’s spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The book also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. The book reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the gi...

  11. Analyzing and comparing the dynamic response of test reactor main workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jiachun; Fu Jiyang; Cai Laizhong

    2001-01-01

    Analyzing soil-structure interaction is an important section in anti-seismic design and analysis of nuclear engineering. The factors that influence on the response of nuclear structures include the properties of earthquake, soil and structures. So the soil-structure interaction in the non-rock foundation is different from that in the surface free field. And the interaction must be considered under the anti-seismic design standard of test reactors. The FLUSH program and SASSI2000 are applied to dynamic analysis. Moreover, comparing the obtained data and diagrams draws some conclusions

  12. Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I; Russo, Lucia

    2013-05-15

    Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situations. Toward this aim mathematical modeling plays an important role in efforts that focus on predicting, assessing, and controlling potential outbreaks. To better understand and model the contagious dynamics the impact of numerous variables ranging from the micro host-pathogen level to host-to-host interactions, as well as prevailing ecological, social, economic, and demographic factors across the globe have to be analyzed and thoroughly studied. Here, we present and discuss the main approaches that are used for the surveillance and modeling of infectious disease dynamics. We present the basic concepts underpinning their implementation and practice and for each category we give an annotated list of representative works.

  13. Model tests on dynamic performance of RC shear walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagashima, Toshio; Shibata, Akenori; Inoue, Norio; Muroi, Kazuo.

    1991-01-01

    For the inelastic dynamic response analysis of a reactor building subjected to earthquakes, it is essentially important to properly evaluate its restoring force characteristics under dynamic loading condition and its damping performance. Reinforced concrete shear walls are the main structural members of a reactor building, and dominate its seismic behavior. In order to obtain the basic information on the dynamic restoring force characteristics and damping performance of shear walls, the dynamic test using a large shaking table, static displacement control test and the pseudo-dynamic test on the models of a shear wall were conducted. In the dynamic test, four specimens were tested on a large shaking table. In the static test, four specimens were tested, and in the pseudo-dynamic test, three specimens were tested. These tests are outlined. The results of these tests were compared, placing emphasis on the restoring force characteristics and damping performance of the RC wall models. The strength was higher in the dynamic test models than in the static test models mainly due to the effect of loading rate. (K.I.)

  14. Characterizing and modeling citation dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Ho Eom

    Full Text Available Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well.

  15. Main dynamics and drivers of boreal forests fire regimes during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, Chiara; Lehsten, Veiko; Blarquez, Olivier; Clear, Jennifer; Carcaillet, Christopher; Bradshaw, Richard HW

    2015-04-01

    Forest fire is one of the most critical ecosystem processes in the boreal megabiome, and it is likely that its frequency, size and severity have had a primary role in vegetation dynamics since the Last Ice Age (Kasischke & Stocks 2000). Fire not only organizes the physical and biological attributes of boreal forests, but also affects biogeochemical cycling, particularly the carbon balance (Balshi et al. 2007). Due to their location at climatically sensitive northern latitudes, boreal forests are likely to be significantly affected by global warming with a consequent increase in biomass burning (Soja et al. 2007), a variation in vegetation structure and composition (Johnstone et al. 2004) and a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (Bond-Lamberty et al. 2007). Even if the ecological role of wildfire in boreal forest is widely recognized, a clearer understanding of the environmental factors controlling fire dynamics and how variations in fire regimes impact forest ecosystems is essential in order to place modern fire processes in a meaningful context for projecting ecosystem behaviour in a changing environment (Kelly et al. 2013). Because fire return intervals and successional cycles in boreal forests occur over decadal to centennial timescales (Hu et al. 2006), palaeoecological research seems to be one of the most promising tool for elucidating ecosystem changes over a broad range of environmental conditions and temporal scales. Within this context, our first aim is to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of boreal forests fire dynamics during the Holocene based on sedimentary charcoal records. As a second step, trends in biomass burning will be statistically analysed in order to disentangle between regional and local drivers. The use of European and north-American sites will give us the unique possibility to perform a large scale analysis on one of the broadest biome in the world and to underline the different patterns of fire in these two

  16. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  17. Restoration of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adushita, Yasmin; Leetaru, Hannes

    2014-09-30

    In topical Report DOE/FE0002068-1 [2] technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the VW1 and the CCS1 wells, structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. Intention was for two million tons per annum (MTPA) of CO2 to be injected for 20 years. In this Task the 2010 Potosi heterogeneous model (referred to as the "Potosi Dynamic Model 2010" in this report) was re-run using a new injection scenario; 3.2 MTPA for 30 years. The extent of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010, however, appeared too small for the new injection target. It was not sufficiently large enough to accommodate the evolution of the plume. Also, it might have overestimated the injection capacity by enhancing too much the pressure relief due to the relatively close proximity between the injector and the infinite acting boundaries. The new model, Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a, was built by extending the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010 grid to 30 miles x 30 miles (48 km by 48 km), while preserving all property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case. Potosi Dynamic Model 2013.a gives an average CO2 injection rate of 1.4 MTPA and cumulative injection of 43 Mt in 30 years, which corresponds to 45% of the injection target. This implies that according to this preliminary model, a minimum of three (3) wells could be required to achieve the injection target. The injectivity evaluation of the Potosi formation will be revisited in topical Report 15 during which more data will be integrated in the modeling exercise. A vertical flow performance evaluation could be considered for the succeeding task to determine the appropriate tubing size, the required injection tubing head pressure (THP) and to investigate whether the corresponding well injection rate

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

  19. The Dynamics of Arrivals of Maine Migratory Breeding Birds: Results from a 24-Year Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Herbert Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This citizen-science project is the first systematic study of patterns of spring migration of Maine migratory birds. A comparison of arrival data from the Maine Ornithological Society from 1899–1911 with the modern data (1994–2017 collected for this study indicated that most species are now not arriving earlier, contrary to the predictions of earlier arrivals in the face of global warming. Arrival was synchronous across the lower two-thirds of the state for most species, although some species showed delayed arrivals along the northeastern coast compared to southern coastal areas. Only thirteen of 81 species are now arriving earlier and seven arriving later. Using quantile regression analysis with three levels of tau, the effect of year, temperature-departure from mean monthly temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index were weak. Most species did not respond to any of these explanatory variables using the modern data. Leaf-gleaners showed the strongest responses. Only four species showed increasing abundance in recent years, an effect that influences detectability and hence could confound interpretation of changes in arrival date.

  20. Modeling and rational determination of the main biomechanical characteristics in javelin throwing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adashevskiy V.M.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The possibilities of the use of biomechanical models in training athletes. The approaches in the construction of biomechanical models. A biomechanical model of throwing the javelin. An solution to the problem of dynamic influence on flight range spear absolute initial rate of departure, departure angle, height of release of the spear. The most important biomechanical characteristics of the "athlete-spear. " The possibilities of using individual features of the athlete to achieve better results.

  1. Modelling the dynamics of youth subcultures

    OpenAIRE

    Holme, Petter; Gronlund, Andreas

    2005-01-01

    What are the dynamics behind youth subcultures such as punk, hippie, or hip-hop cultures? How does the global dynamics of these subcultures relate to the individual's search for a personal identity? We propose a simple dynamical model to address these questions and find that only a few assumptions of the individual's behaviour are necessary to regenerate known features of youth culture.

  2. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  3. Analysis of flow dynamics of main pulmonary artery by cine phase contrast MR angiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, Norinari; Machida, Kikuo; Mamiya, Toshio

    1996-01-01

    Nineteen studies of cine phase contrast MR angiography (PCMRA) of main pulmonary artery (MPA) entered the study. Cine PCMRA was obtained by a 1.5T MR imager with a gradient echo sequence coupled with velocity encoding bipolar pulses. Retrospective EKG gating was used. Mean velocity, maximum velocity, and maximum flow rate of MPA were 6.2 to 28 cm/s (mean/SD 13/5.1, n=18), 61 to 148 cm/s (mean/SD 102/30, n=13), and 12,561 to 30,113 ml/min (mean/SD 18,730/5,464, n=18), respectively. Retrograde flow in the MPA was noted to begin at late-to mid-systole. Retrograde flow occurred first in the posterior part (15/19) or occurred from periphery (4/19). Thus hemodynamic parameters and velocity maps of MPA can be obtained by cine PCMRA. (author)

  4. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  5. Using Small Models for Big Issues : Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.

    2010-01-01

    The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security.

  6. Tree Height and DBH Growth Model Establishment of Main Tree Species in Wuling Mountain Small Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jia; Zhang, Min; Zhou, Xiaoling; Chen, Jianhua; Tian, Yuxin

    2018-01-01

    Taken 4 main tree species in the Wuling mountain small watershed as research objects, 57 typical sample plots were set up according to the stand type, site conditions and community structure. 311 goal diameter-class sample trees were selected according to diameter-class groups of different tree-height grades, and the optimal fitting models of tree height and DBH growth of main tree species were obtained by stem analysis using Richard, Logistic, Korf, Mitscherlich, Schumacher, Weibull theoretical growth equations, and the correlation coefficient of all optimal fitting models reached above 0.9. Through the evaluation and test, the optimal fitting models possessed rather good fitting precision and forecast dependability.

  7. Dynamic Model Development for Interplanetary Navigation

    OpenAIRE

    Eun-Seo Park; Young-Joo Song; Sung-Moon Yoo; Sang-Young Park; Kyu-Hong Choi; Jae-Cheol Yoon; Jo Ryeong Yim; Joon-Min Choi; Byung-Kyo Kim

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the dynamic model development for interplanetary navigation has been discussed. The Cowell method for special perturbation theories was employed to develop an interplanetary trajectory propagator including the perturbations due to geopotential, the Earth's dynamic polar motion, the gravity of the Sun, the Moon and the other planets in the solar system, the relativistic effect of the Sun, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag. The equations of motion in dynamic model we...

  8. Game equilibrium models I evolution and game dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    There are two main approaches towards the phenotypic analysis of frequency dependent natural selection. First, there is the approach of evolutionary game theory, which was introduced in 1973 by John Maynard Smith and George R. Price. In this theory, the dynamical process of natural selection is not modeled explicitly. Instead, the selective forces acting within a population are represented by a fitness function, which is then analysed according to the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy or ESS. Later on, the static approach of evolutionary game theory has been complemented by a dynamic stability analysis of the replicator equations. Introduced by Peter D. Taylor and Leo B. Jonker in 1978, these equations specify a class of dynamical systems, which provide a simple dynamic description of a selection process. Usually, the investigation of the replicator dynamics centers around a stability analysis of their stationary solutions. Although evolutionary stability and dynamic stability both intend to charac...

  9. System dynamics modelling of situation awareness

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...

  10. Advanced models of neural networks nonlinear dynamics and stochasticity in biological neurons

    CERN Document Server

    Rigatos, Gerasimos G

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a complete study on neural structures exhibiting nonlinear and stochastic dynamics, elaborating on neural dynamics by introducing advanced models of neural networks. It overviews the main findings in the modelling of neural dynamics in terms of electrical circuits and examines their stability properties with the use of dynamical systems theory. It is suitable for researchers and postgraduate students engaged with neural networks and dynamical systems theory.

  11. Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production

    OpenAIRE

    Andra Blumberga; Armands Gravelsins; Haralds Vigants; Dagnija Blumberga

    2017-01-01

    The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this resear...

  12. COMPETENCE-BASED APPROACH TO MODELLING STRUCTURES OF THE MAIN EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Gerasimova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available By the analysis results of scientific works in the field of competence-based approach in education authors proved need of computer support of the planning and development stage of the main educational program, they developed the main educational program structure automatic formation model on the graphs basis, offered the integrated criterion of an discipline assessment and developed a strategic map of a discipline complex assessment. The executed theoretical researches are a basis for creation of the main educational program planning and development support automated system.

  13. Launch Vehicle Dynamics Demonstrator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1963-01-01

    The effect of vibration on launch vehicle dynamics was studied. Conditions included three modes of instability. The film includes close up views of the simulator fuel tank with and without stability control.

  14. Dynamical Models for Computer Viruses Propagation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. C. Piqueira

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network.

  15. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  16. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2013-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  17. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  18. Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.

    2006-01-01

    We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)

  19. Towards the sustainable management of thuya (Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl.) Mast.) forests in Tunisia: models for main tree attributes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calama, R.; Sanchez-Gonzalez, M.; Garchi, S.; Ammari, Y.; Canellas, I.; Tahar, S.

    2012-11-01

    The thuya (Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl.) Mast.) forests are one of the most important ecosystems in semiarid environments in north-western Africa, providing important economic profit and social services to local populations. However, lack of tools aiding sustainable management of these forests is detected. In the present work models for the main tree attributes as total height, crown diameter, height to crown base and stem form are developed for the species, using data from a net of plots installed in JbelLattrech region, in the NE Tunisia. Presented models allow characterizing the actual state and timber production of forests by using variables measured in typical forest inventories and conform a preliminary step for the future development of dynamic growth models. (Author) 18 refs.

  20. A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Sustainment System Dynamics Model 11 Figure 7: Core Structure of Sustainment Work 12 Figure 8: Bandwagon Effect Loop 13 Figure 9: Limits to Growth Loop 14...Dynamics Model sustainment capacity sustainment performance gap Bandwagon Effect R1 Limits to Growth B1 S Work Smarter B3 Work Bigger B2 desired...which is of concern primarily when using the model as a vehicle for research. Figure 8 depicts a reinforcing loop called the “ Bandwagon Effect

  1. A Stochastic Cobweb Dynamical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serena Brianzoni

    2008-01-01

    _,__0__1, and the forward predictor with probability (1−, so that the expected price at time is a random variable and consequently the dynamics describing the price evolution in time is governed by a stochastic dynamical system. The dynamical system becomes a Markov process when the memory rate vanishes. In particular, we study the Markov chain in the cases of discrete and continuous time. Using a mixture of analytical tools and numerical methods, we show that, when prices take discrete values, the corresponding Markov chain is asymptotically stable. In the case with continuous prices and nonnecessarily zero memory rate, numerical evidence of bounded price oscillations is shown. The role of the memory rate is studied through numerical experiments, this study confirms the stabilizing effects of the presence of resistant memory.

  2. Very Large System Dynamics Models - Lessons Learned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Leonard Malczynski

    2008-10-01

    This paper provides lessons learned from developing several large system dynamics (SD) models. System dynamics modeling practice emphasize the need to keep models small so that they are manageable and understandable. This practice is generally reasonable and prudent; however, there are times that large SD models are necessary. This paper outlines two large SD projects that were done at two Department of Energy National Laboratories, the Idaho National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. This paper summarizes the models and then discusses some of the valuable lessons learned during these two modeling efforts.

  3. Influence of main variables modifications on accident transient based on AP1000-like MELCOR model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, M.; Pieńkowski, L.

    2016-09-01

    Analysis of Severe Accidents (SA) is one of the most important parts of nuclear safety researches. MELCOR is a validated system code for severe accident analysis and as such it was used to obtain presented results. Analysed AP1000 model is based on publicly available data only. Sensitivity analysis was done for the main variables of primary reactor coolant system to find their influence on accident transient. This kind of analysis helps to find weak points of reactor design and the model itself. Performed analysis is a base for creation of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) generic model which will be the next step of the investigation aiming to estimate safety level of different reactors. Results clearly help to establish a range of boundary conditions for main the variables in future SMR model.

  4. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  5. Modeling microbial growth and dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Daniel S; Leveau, Johan H J; Meyer, Katrin M

    2015-11-01

    Modeling has become an important tool for widening our understanding of microbial growth in the context of applied microbiology and related to such processes as safe food production, wastewater treatment, bioremediation, or microbe-mediated mining. Various modeling techniques, such as primary, secondary and tertiary mathematical models, phenomenological models, mechanistic or kinetic models, reactive transport models, Bayesian network models, artificial neural networks, as well as agent-, individual-, and particle-based models have been applied to model microbial growth and activity in many applied fields. In this mini-review, we summarize the basic concepts of these models using examples and applications from food safety and wastewater treatment systems. We further review recent developments in other applied fields focusing on models that explicitly include spatial relationships. Using these examples, we point out the conceptual similarities across fields of application and encourage the combined use of different modeling techniques in hybrid models as well as their cross-disciplinary exchange. For instance, pattern-oriented modeling has its origin in ecology but may be employed to parameterize microbial growth models when experimental data are scarce. Models could also be used as virtual laboratories to optimize experimental design analogous to the virtual ecologist approach. Future microbial growth models will likely become more complex to benefit from the rich toolbox that is now available to microbial growth modelers.

  6. Discrete Dynamical Models of Walking Droplets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Aminur

    2017-11-01

    In recent years discrete planar dynamical models of walking droplets (walkers) on a billiards table (Shirokoff, Chaos 2013) and walking in a straight-line confined geometry (Gilet, PRE 2014) have been developed. Gilet's model was then analyzed via dynamical systems theory (Rahman-Blackmore, C,S& F 2016). From the analysis it was shown that while Gilet's walker is confined under the threshold for chaos, it does escape the boundary once the system becomes chaotic. We modify the model to trap the walker in an annulur domain. This allows for connections between the dynamics, statistics, and experimental works (Filoux et al., PRE 2015). From this connection we derive a kicked rotator-like model for a walker in an annulus. We endeavor to manipulate the dynamics of the model to produce statistics similar to that of experiments.

  7. Process-oriented modelling to identify main drivers of erosion-induced carbon fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilken, Florian; Sommer, Michael; Van Oost, Kristof; Bens, Oliver; Fiener, Peter

    2017-05-01

    Coupled modelling of soil erosion, carbon redistribution, and turnover has received great attention over the last decades due to large uncertainties regarding erosion-induced carbon fluxes. For a process-oriented representation of event dynamics, coupled soil-carbon erosion models have been developed. However, there are currently few models that represent tillage erosion, preferential water erosion, and transport of different carbon fractions (e.g. mineral bound carbon, carbon encapsulated by soil aggregates). We couple a process-oriented multi-class sediment transport model with a carbon turnover model (MCST-C) to identify relevant redistribution processes for carbon dynamics. The model is applied for two arable catchments (3.7 and 7.8 ha) located in the Tertiary Hills about 40 km north of Munich, Germany. Our findings indicate the following: (i) redistribution by tillage has a large effect on erosion-induced vertical carbon fluxes and has a large carbon sequestration potential; (ii) water erosion has a minor effect on vertical fluxes, but episodic soil organic carbon (SOC) delivery controls the long-term erosion-induced carbon balance; (iii) delivered sediments are highly enriched in SOC compared to the parent soil, and sediment delivery is driven by event size and catchment connectivity; and (iv) soil aggregation enhances SOC deposition due to the transformation of highly mobile carbon-rich fine primary particles into rather immobile soil aggregates.

  8. Structural dynamic modifications via models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2nd Int. Modal Analysis Conference (Orlando) 2: 930±936. Natke H G (ed.) 1982 Identification of vibrating structures (New York: Springer Verlag, Wein). Rao S S 1989 Optimum design of structures under shock and vibration environment. Shock Vibr. Dig. 21(7):. Ravi S S A 1994 Structural dynamic modifications and design ...

  9. Dynamic Motion Modelling for Legged Robots

    OpenAIRE

    Edgington, Mark; Kassahun, Yohannes; Kirchner, Frank

    2010-01-01

    An accurate motion model is an important component in modern-day robotic systems, but building such a model for a complex system often requires an appreciable amount of manual effort. In this paper we present a motion model representation, the Dynamic Gaussian Mixture Model (DGMM), that alleviates the need to manually design the form of a motion model, and provides a direct means of incorporating auxiliary sensory data into the model. This representation and its accompanying algorithms are va...

  10. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

  11. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia...

  12. Photometry and models of selected main belt asteroids: IX. Introducing interactive service for asteroid models (ISAM)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marciniak, A.; Bartczak, P.; Santana-Ros, T.

    2012-01-01

    occultations, or space probe imaging. Aims. During our ongoing work to increase the set of asteroids with known spin and shape parameters, there appeared a need for displaying the model plane-of-sky orientations for specific epochs to compare models from different techniques. It would also be instructive...... to be able to track how the complex lightcurves are produced by various asteroid shapes. Methods. Basing our analysis on an extensive photometric observational dataset, we obtained eight asteroid models with the convex lightcurve inversion method. To enable comparison of the photometric models with those......, we increase the sample of asteroid spin and shape models based on disk-integrated photometry to over 200. Three of the shape models obtained here are confirmed by the stellar occultation data; this also allowed independent determinations of their sizes to be made. Conclusions. The ISAM service can...

  13. Modeling radiation loads in the ILC main linac and a novel approach to treat dark current

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mokhov, Nilolai V. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Rakhno, Igor L. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Tropin, Igor S. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

    2017-09-11

    Electromagnetic and hadron showers generated by electrons of dark current (DC) can represent a significant radiation threat to the ILC linac equipment and personnel. In this study, a commissioning scenario is analysed which is considered as the worst-case scenario for the main linac regarding the DC contribution to the radiation environment in the tunnel. A normal operation scenario is analysed as well. An emphasis is made on radiation load to sensitive electronic equipment—cryogenic thermometers inside the cryomodules. Prompt and residual dose rates in the ILC main linac tunnels were also calculated in these new high-statistics runs. A novel approach was developed—as a part of general purpose Monte Carlo code MARS15—to model generation, acceleration and transport of DC electrons in electromagnetic fields inside SRF cavities. Comparisons were made with a standard approach when a set of pre-calculated DC electron trajectories is used, with a proper normalization, as a source for Monte Carlo modelling. Results of MARS15 Monte Carlo calculations, performed for the current main linac tunnel design, reveal that the peak absorbed dose in the cryogenic thermometers in the main tunnel for 20 years of operation is about 0.8 MGy. The calculated contact residual dose on cryomodules and tunnel walls in the main tunnel for typical irradiation and cooling conditions is 0.1 and 0.01 mSv/hr, respectively.

  14. Structure-dynamic model verification calculation of PWR 5 tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engel, R.

    1980-02-01

    Within reactor safety research project RS 16 B of the German Federal Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT), blowdown experiments are conducted at Battelle Institut e.V. Frankfurt/Main using a model reactor pressure vessel with a height of 11,2 m and internals corresponding to those in a PWR. In the present report the dynamic loading on the pressure vessel internals (upper perforated plate and barrel suspension) during the DWR 5 experiment are calculated by means of a vertical and horizontal dynamic model using the CESHOCK code. The equations of motion are resolved by direct integration. (orig./RW) [de

  15. Dynamic logistic regression and dynamic model averaging for binary classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Tyler H; Raftery, Adrian E; Madigan, David; Burd, Randall S

    2012-03-01

    We propose an online binary classification procedure for cases when there is uncertainty about the model to use and parameters within a model change over time. We account for model uncertainty through dynamic model averaging, a dynamic extension of Bayesian model averaging in which posterior model probabilities may also change with time. We apply a state-space model to the parameters of each model and we allow the data-generating model to change over time according to a Markov chain. Calibrating a "forgetting" factor accommodates different levels of change in the data-generating mechanism. We propose an algorithm that adjusts the level of forgetting in an online fashion using the posterior predictive distribution, and so accommodates various levels of change at different times. We apply our method to data from children with appendicitis who receive either a traditional (open) appendectomy or a laparoscopic procedure. Factors associated with which children receive a particular type of procedure changed substantially over the 7 years of data collection, a feature that is not captured using standard regression modeling. Because our procedure can be implemented completely online, future data collection for similar studies would require storing sensitive patient information only temporarily, reducing the risk of a breach of confidentiality. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Simulink Model of the Ares I Upper Stage Main Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchett, Bradley T.

    2008-01-01

    A numerical model of the Ares I upper stage main propulsion system is formulated based on first principles. Equation's are written as non-linear ordinary differential equations. The GASP fortran code is used to compute thermophysical properties of the working fluids. Complicated algebraic constraints are numerically solved. The model is implemented in Simulink and provides a rudimentary simulation of the time history of important pressures and temperatures during re-pressurization, boost and upper stage firing. The model is validated against an existing reliable code, and typical results are shown.

  17. Verification of RBMK-1500 reactor main circulation circuit model with Cathare V1.3L

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jasiulevicius, A.

    2001-01-01

    Among other computer codes, French code CATHARE is also applied for RBMK reactor calculations. In this paper results of such application for Ignalina NPP reactor (RBMK-1500 type) main circulation circuit are presented. Three transients calculations were performed: all main circulation pumps (MCP) trip, trip of one main circulation pump and trip of one main circulation pump without a closure of check valve on the pump line. Calculation results were compared to data from the Ignalina NPP, where all these transients were recorded in the years 1986, 1996 and 1998. The presented studies prove the capability of the CATHARE code to treat thermal-hydraulic transients with a reactor scram in the RBMK, in case of single or multiple pump trips. However, the presented model needs further improvements in order to simulate loss of coolant accidents. For this reason, emergency core cooling system should be included in the model. Additional model improvement is also needed in order to gain more independent pressure behavior in both loops. Also, flow rates through the reactor channels should be modeled by dividing channels into several groups, referring to channel power (in RBMK power produced in a channel, located in different parts of the core is not the same). The point-neutron kinetic model of the CATHARE code is not suitable to predict transients when the reactor is operating at a nominal power level. Such transients would require the use of 3D-neutron kinetics model to describe properly the strong space-time effect on the power distribution in the reactor core

  18. Verification of RBMK-1500 reactor main circulation circuit model with Cathare V1.3L

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jasiulevicius, A. [Kaunas University of Technology, Dept. of Thermal and Nuclear Energy, Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2001-07-01

    Among other computer codes, French code CATHARE is also applied for RBMK reactor calculations. In this paper results of such application for Ignalina NPP reactor (RBMK-1500 type) main circulation circuit are presented. Three transients calculations were performed: all main circulation pumps (MCP) trip, trip of one main circulation pump and trip of one main circulation pump without a closure of check valve on the pump line. Calculation results were compared to data from the Ignalina NPP, where all these transients were recorded in the years 1986, 1996 and 1998. The presented studies prove the capability of the CATHARE code to treat thermal-hydraulic transients with a reactor scram in the RBMK, in case of single or multiple pump trips. However, the presented model needs further improvements in order to simulate loss of coolant accidents. For this reason, emergency core cooling system should be included in the model. Additional model improvement is also needed in order to gain more independent pressure behavior in both loops. Also, flow rates through the reactor channels should be modeled by dividing channels into several groups, referring to channel power (in RBMK power produced in a channel, located in different parts of the core is not the same). The point-neutron kinetic model of the CATHARE code is not suitable to predict transients when the reactor is operating at a nominal power level. Such transients would require the use of 3D-neutron kinetics model to describe properly the strong space-time effect on the power distribution in the reactor core.

  19. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  20. Damping mechanisms and models in structural dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen

    2002-01-01

    Several aspects of damping models for dynamic analysis of structures are investigated. First the causality condition for structural response is used to identify rules for the use of complex-valued frequency dependent material models, illustrated by the shortcomings of the elastic hysteretic model...

  1. Permanent magnet synchronous motor dynamic modeling with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper proposes dynamic modeling simulation for ac Surface Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (SPMSM) with the aid of MATLAB – Simulink environment. The proposed model would be used in many applications such as automotive, mechatronics, green energy applications, and machine drives. The modeling ...

  2. Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-20

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0258 Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models Eunice Santos UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT EL PASO 500 UNIV ST ADMIN BLDG...REPORT TYPE Final Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 3/1/13-12/31/14 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models 5a...AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT We propose an overarching framework designed to incorporate various aspects of social resilience

  3. Dynamic cognitive models of intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junyi; Pleskac, Timothy J; Pachur, Thorsten

    2018-03-24

    Traditionally, descriptive accounts of intertemporal choice have relied on static and deterministic models that assume alternative-wise processing of the options. Recent research, by contrast, has highlighted the dynamic and probabilistic nature of intertemporal choice and provided support for attribute-wise processing. Currently, dynamic models of intertemporal choice-which account for both the resulting choice and the time course over which the construction of a choice develops-rely exclusively on the framework of evidence accumulation. In this article, we develop and rigorously compare several candidate schemes for dynamic models of intertemporal choice. Specifically, we consider an existing dynamic modeling scheme based on decision field theory and develop two novel modeling schemes-one assuming lexicographic, noncompensatory processing, and the other built on the classical concepts of random utility in economics and discrimination thresholds in psychophysics. We show that all three modeling schemes can accommodate key behavioral regularities in intertemporal choice. When empirical choice and response time data were fit simultaneously, the models built on random utility and discrimination thresholds performed best. The results also indicated substantial individual differences in the dynamics underlying intertemporal choice. Finally, model recovery analyses demonstrated the benefits of including both choice and response time data for more accurate model selection on the individual level. The present work shows how the classical concept of random utility can be extended to incorporate response dynamics in intertemporal choice. Moreover, the results suggest that this approach offers a successful alternative to the dominating evidence accumulation approach when modeling the dynamics of decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Quantum kinetic Heisenberg models: a unique dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timonen, J.; Pilling, D.J.; Bullough, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    We suggest that the dynamics Glauber embodied in his kinetic Ising model can be introduced similarly and in an apparently unique way, into the quantum statistical mechanics of the quantum-integrable models like the Heisenberg, sine-Gordon and Massive Thirring models. The latter may suggest an extension of the theory to unique kinetic Ising models in two dimensions. The kinetic repulsive bose gas which is studied in detail in the steady state seems to be a solvable kinetic model. (author)

  5. Prediction of left main or 3-vessel disease using myocardial perfusion reserve on dynamic thallium-201 single-photon emission computed tomography with a semiconductor gamma camera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiraishi, Shinya; Sakamoto, Fumi; Tsuda, Noriko; Yoshida, Morikatsu; Tomiguchi, Seiji; Utsunomiya, Daisuke; Ogawa, Hisao; Yamashita, Yasuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) may fail to detect balanced ischemia. We evaluated myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) using Tl dynamic single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and a novel cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) camera for predicting 3-vessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 55 consecutive patients with suspected CAD underwent SPECT-MPI and coronary angiography. The MPR index was calculated using the standard 2-compartment kinetic model. We analyzed the utility of MPR index, other SPECT findings, and various clinical variables. On multivariate analysis, MPR index and history of previous myocardial infarction (MI) predicted left main and 3-vessel disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 for MPR index, 0.699 for history of previous MI, and 0.86 for MPR index plus history of previous MI. MPR index ≤1.5 yielded the highest diagnostic accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 86%, 78%, and 80%, respectively, for MPR index, 64%, 76%, 73% for previous MI, and 57%, 93%, and 84% for MPR index plus history of previous MI. Quantification of MPR using dynamic SPECT and a novel CZT camera may identify balanced ischemia in patients with left main or 3-vessel disease.

  6. Adaptation dynamics of the quasispecies model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We study the adaptation dynamics of an initially maladapted population evolving via the elementary processes of mutation and selection. The evolution occurs on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multi-dimensional genotypic space and have many local peaks separated by low fitness valleys. We mainly ...

  7. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  8. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  9. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie C. Gorman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals in the context of teams, (c describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area.

  10. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  11. Main control computer security model of closed network systems protection against cyber attacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seymen, Bilal

    2014-06-01

    The model that brings the data input/output under control in closed network systems, that maintains the system securely, and that controls the flow of information through the Main Control Computer which also brings the network traffic under control against cyber-attacks. The network, which can be controlled single-handedly thanks to the system designed to enable the network users to make data entry into the system or to extract data from the system securely, intends to minimize the security gaps. Moreover, data input/output record can be kept by means of the user account assigned for each user, and it is also possible to carry out retroactive tracking, if requested. Because the measures that need to be taken for each computer on the network regarding cyber security, do require high cost; it has been intended to provide a cost-effective working environment with this model, only if the Main Control Computer has the updated hardware.

  12. Experimental Validation of a Dynamic Model for Lightweight Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Gasparetto

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, one of the main topics in robotics research is dynamic performance improvement by means of a lightening of the overall system structure. The effective motion and control of these lightweight robotic systems occurs with the use of suitable motion planning and control process. In order to do so, model-based approaches can be adopted by exploiting accurate dynamic models that take into account the inertial and elastic terms that are usually neglected in a heavy rigid link configuration. In this paper, an effective method for modelling spatial lightweight industrial robots based on an Equivalent Rigid Link System approach is considered from an experimental validation perspective. A dynamic simulator implementing the formulation is used and an experimental test-bench is set-up. Experimental tests are carried out with a benchmark L-shape mechanism.

  13. Photometry and models of selected main belt asteroids. IX. Introducing interactive service for asteroid models (ISAM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marciniak, A.; Bartczak, P.; Santana-Ros, T.; Michalowski, T.; Antonini, P.; Behrend, R.; Bembrick, C.; Bernasconi, L.; Borczyk, W.; Colas, F.; Coloma, J.; Crippa, R.; Esseiva, N.; Fagas, M.; Fauvaud, M.; Fauvaud, S.; Ferreira, D. D. M.; Hein - Bertelsen, R.P.; Higgins, D.; Hirsch, R.; Kajava, J. J. E.; Kaminski, K.; Kryszczynska, A.; Kwiatkowski, T.; Manzini, F.; Michalowski, J.; Michalowski, M. J.; Paschke, A.; Polinska, M.; Poncy, R.; Roy, R.; Santacana, G.; Sobkowiak, K.; Stasik, M.; Starczewski, S.; Velichko, F.; Wucher, H.; Zafar, T.

    Context. The shapes and spin states of asteroids observed with photometric techniques can be reconstructed using the lightcurve inversion method. The resultant models can then be confirmed or exploited further by other techniques, such as adaptive optics, radar, thermal infrared, stellar

  14. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  15. Accountancy Modeling on Intangible Fixed Assets in Terms of the Main Provisions of International Accounting Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riana Iren RADU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Intangible fixed assets are of great importance in terms of progress of economic units. In recent years new approaches have been developed, additions to old standards so that intangible assets have gained a reputation both in the economic environment and in academia. We intend to develop a practical study on the main accounting approaches of the accounting modeling of the intangibles that impact on a company's brand development research PRORESEARCH SRL.

  16. Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

  17. Modelling the Earth's Main Magnetic Field by the spinning Astrid-2 satellite

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merayo, Jose Maria Garcia; Jørgensen, Peter Siegbjørn; Risbo, T.

    1999-01-01

    and therefore the mapping of the Earth's magnetic field may be possible. The spinning of the spacecraft about a certain axis makes the stabilisation in space possible. This fact and the well distributed data over the globe makes the magnetic data well suited for the estimation of the magnetic field model...... at the spacecraft altitude (circa 1000km). Several methods for field modelling are presented in this paper with the assumption that the direction of the spin axis is nearly constant. In any case the orientation of the magnetometer is to bedetermined simultaneously with the instrument calibration and main field...

  18. A Non-Linear Finite Element Model for the LHC Main Dipole Coil Cross-Section

    CERN Document Server

    Pojer, M; Scandale, Walter

    2006-01-01

    The production of the dipole magnets for the Large Hadron Collider is at its final stage. Nevertheless, some mechanical instabilities are still observed for which no clear explanation has been found yet. A FE modelization of the dipole cold mass cross-section had already been developed at CERN, mainly for magnetic analysis, taking into account conductor blocks and a frictionless behavior. This paper describes a new ANSYS® model of the dipole coil cross-section, featuring individual turns inside conductor blocks, and implementing friction and the mechanical non-linear behavior of insulated cables. Preliminary results, comparison with measurements performed in industry and ongoing developments are discussed.

  19. Airflow Model Testing to Determine the Distribution of Hot Gas Flow and O/F Ratio Across the Space Shuttle Main Engine Main Injector Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahorter, L.; Chik, J.; McDaniels, D.; Dill, C.

    1990-01-01

    Engine 0209, the certification engine for the new Phase 2+ Hot Gas Manifold (HGM), showed severe deterioration of the Main Combustion Chamber (MCC) liner during hot fire tests. One theory on the cause of the damage held that uneven local distribution of the fuel rich hot gas flow through the main injector assembly was producing regions of high oxidizer/fuel (O/F) ratio near the wall of the MCC liner. Airflow testing was proposed to measure the local hot gas flow rates through individual injector elements. The airflow tests were conducted using full scale, geometrically correct models of both the current Phase 2 and the new Phase 2+ HGMs. Different main injector flow shield configurations were tested for each HGM to ascertain their effect on the pressure levels and distribution of hot gas flow. Instrumentation located on the primary faceplate of the main injector measured hot gas flow through selected injector elements. These data were combined with information from the current space shuttle main engine (SSME) power balances to produce maps of pressure, hot gas flow rate, and O/F ratio near the main injector primary plate. The O/F distributions were compared for the different injector and HGM configurations.

  20. A systematic review of the main factors that determine agility in sport using structural equation modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojka Vladimir

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available While tests of basic motor abilities such as speed, maximum strength or endurance are well recognized, testing of complex motor functions such as agility remains unresolved in current literature. Therefore, the aim of this review was to evaluate which main factor or factor structures quantitatively determine agility. In methodological detail, this review focused on research that explained or described the relationships between latent variables in a factorial model of agility using approaches such as principal component analysis, factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Four research studies met the defined inclusion criteria. No quantitative empirical research was found that tried to verify the quality of the whole suggested model of the main factors determining agility through the use of a structural equation modeling (SEM approach or a confirmatory factor analysis. From the whole structure of agility, only change of direction speed (CODS and some of its subtests were appropriately analyzed. The combination of common CODS tests is reliable and useful to estimate performance in sub-elite athletes; however, for elite athletes, CODS tests must be specific to the needs of a particular sport discipline. Sprinting and jumping tests are stronger factors for CODS than explosive strength and maximum strength tests. The authors suggest the need to verify the agility factorial model by a second generation data analysis technique such as SEM.

  1. Predictive Modeling of Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Resting Habitat in the Main Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Lesley H.; Johnston, David W.; Urban, Dean L.; Tyne, Julian; Bejder, Lars; Baird, Robin W.; Yin, Suzanne; Rickards, Susan H.; Deakos, Mark H.; Mobley, Joseph R.; Pack, Adam A.; Chapla Hill, Marie

    2012-01-01

    Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood. PMID:22937022

  2. A systematic review of the main factors that determine agility in sport using structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hojka, Vladimir; Stastny, Petr; Rehak, Tomas; Gołas, Artur; Mostowik, Aleksandra; Zawart, Marek; Musálek, Martin

    2016-09-01

    While tests of basic motor abilities such as speed, maximum strength or endurance are well recognized, testing of complex motor functions such as agility remains unresolved in current literature. Therefore, the aim of this review was to evaluate which main factor or factor structures quantitatively determine agility. In methodological detail, this review focused on research that explained or described the relationships between latent variables in a factorial model of agility using approaches such as principal component analysis, factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Four research studies met the defined inclusion criteria. No quantitative empirical research was found that tried to verify the quality of the whole suggested model of the main factors determining agility through the use of a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach or a confirmatory factor analysis. From the whole structure of agility, only change of direction speed (CODS) and some of its subtests were appropriately analyzed. The combination of common CODS tests is reliable and useful to estimate performance in sub-elite athletes; however, for elite athletes, CODS tests must be specific to the needs of a particular sport discipline. Sprinting and jumping tests are stronger factors for CODS than explosive strength and maximum strength tests. The authors suggest the need to verify the agility factorial model by a second generation data analysis technique such as SEM.

  3. Predictive modeling of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesley H Thorne

    Full Text Available Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood.

  4. Detonation Shock Dynamics Modelling with Arbitrary Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Alexander

    2017-06-01

    The Detonation Shock Dynamics (DSD) model can be used to predict detonation wave propagation in a high explosive (HE). The detonation wave is prescribed a velocity that depends on its curvature. Additionally, the angle between the wave and the HE boundary may not exceed a specified ``boundary angle'', the value of which depends on the HE and its confining material(s). The level-set method is commonly used to drive DSD computation. Boundary conditions are applied to the level-set field at the charge edges to maintain the explosive boundary angle criteria. The position of the boundary must be accurate and continuous across adjacent cells to achieve accurate and robust results. This is mainly an issue for mixed material meshes where the boundary does not coincide with the cell boundaries. For such meshes, a set of volume fractions defines the amount of material in each cell. The boundary is defined implicitly by the volume fractions, and must be reconstructed to an explicit form for use in DSD. This work describes a novel synthesis of the level-set method and simulated annealing, an optimisation method used to reconstruct the boundary. The accuracy and robustness of the resulting DSD calculation are evaluated with a range of test problems.

  5. Information Dynamics in Networks: Models and Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-13

    Information Dynamics in Networks: Models and Algorithms In this project, we investigated how network structure interplays with higher level processes in...Models and Algorithms Report Title In this project, we investigated how network structure interplays with higher level processes in online social...Received Paper 1.00 2.00 3.00 . A Note on Modeling Retweet Cascades on Twitter, Workshop on Algorithms and Models for the Web Graph. 09-DEC-15

  6. Dynamics of the standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Donoghue, John F; Holstein, Barry R

    2014-01-01

    Describing the fundamental theory of particle physics and its applications, this book provides a detailed account of the Standard Model, focusing on techniques that can produce information about real observed phenomena. The book begins with a pedagogic account of the Standard Model, introducing essential techniques such as effective field theory and path integral methods. It then focuses on the use of the Standard Model in the calculation of physical properties of particles. Rigorous methods are emphasized, but other useful models are also described. This second edition has been updated to include recent theoretical and experimental advances, such as the discovery of the Higgs boson. A new chapter is devoted to the theoretical and experimental understanding of neutrinos, and major advances in CP violation and electroweak physics have been given a modern treatment. This book is valuable to graduate students and researchers in particle physics, nuclear physics and related fields.

  7. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  8. High-resolution modeling assessment of tidal stream resource in Western Passage of Maine, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Feng, Xi; Xue, Huijie; Kilcher, Levi

    2017-04-01

    Although significant efforts have been taken to assess the maximum potential of tidal stream energy at system-wide scale, accurate assessment of tidal stream energy resource at project design scale requires detailed hydrodynamic simulations using high-resolution three-dimensional (3-D) numerical models. Extended model validation against high quality measured data is essential to minimize the uncertainties of the resource assessment. Western Passage in the State of Maine in U.S. has been identified as one of the top ranking sites for tidal stream energy development in U.S. coastal waters, based on a number of criteria including tidal power density, market value and transmission distance. This study presents an on-going modeling effort for simulating the tidal hydrodynamics in Western Passage using the 3-D unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model domain covers a large region including the entire the Bay of Fundy with grid resolution varies from 20 m in the Western Passage to approximately 1000 m along the open boundary near the mouth of Bay of Fundy. Preliminary model validation was conducted using existing NOAA measurements within the model domain. Spatial distributions of tidal power density were calculated and extractable tidal energy was estimated using a tidal turbine module embedded in FVCOM under different tidal farm scenarios. Additional field measurements to characterize resource and support model validation were discussed. This study provides an example of high resolution resource assessment based on the guidance recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification.

  9. Dynamic load modeling using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, C.; Silva, A.P. Alves da; Torres, G. Lambert [Escola Federal de Engenharia de Itajuba, MG (Brazil). Inst. de Engenharia Eletrica

    1996-07-01

    Accurate dynamic load models allow more precise calculations of power system controls and stability limits. System identification methods can be applied to estimate load models based on measurements. Parametric and nonparametric are the two classes in system identification methods. The parametric approach has been the only one used for load modeling so far. In this paper, the performance of a nonparametric load model based on the functional polynomial artificial neural network is compared with a linear model and with the popular Zip model. The impact of clustering different load compositions is also investigated. Substation buses (138 kV) from the Brazilian system feeding important industrial consumers have been modeled. (author)

  10. Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Bryan

    Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.

  11. THE INTEGRATION MODEL ASEAN+1: THE MAIN NORMS OF AGREEMENTS AND EFFECT ON FOREIGN ECONOMIC TIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Г М Костюнина

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is a comparative analysis of the provisions of free trade agreements signed by ASEAN with dialogue countries and the East Asia Summit partners - China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. The author's thesis is that, in our opinion, the final effect of participation in the free trade zone for the national economy depends on such factors as the volume of mutual trade, the degree of economic interde-pendence, the level of customs duties rates at the date of signing the agreement, the volume of the mutual market, geographical proximity. The higher the role of these factors, the greater the effect of trade creation is received by the participating states. The basis of the research methodology is the understanding of regional integration agreements as a multifactor instrument of trade policy in various countries of the world that facilitates the liberalization of international trade in general and the regional trade in particular, enhancing the participation of partner states in the international division of labor and stimulating the dynamics of their economic development. Such agreements are considered as a system that includes a set of elements that interact with elements of other systems. Such interaction is considered taking into account the specific purpose of each of the elements, and also taking into account the factors of the stability of the development of each system. In carry-ing out this study, the author has used such methods as the method of comparative analysis, which makes it possible to identify the specifics of the participation of ASEAN countries in free trade zones; methods of statistical analysis and political forecasting that provide an opportunity to identify legal norms of integra-tion agreements on the ASEAN + 1 model; as well as a logical conceptual analysis that allows to present a full picture of the ASEAN integration policy. The author analyses norms for regulating the

  12. Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

    2015-04-01

    Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

  13. Field based model for pedestrian dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Zhang, Michael; Wang, Zhongren

    2018-03-01

    A pedestrian’s physical movement is simulated as a response to the pedestrian subjective evaluation of the objective environment. The objective environment is modeled by presumed fields statically or dynamically superposed. Regulation functions, which consider not only force caused by presumed fields but also local crowd densities around pedestrians, are introduced for consideration of pedestrians’ intelligence. Numerical experiments indicate that the model can be calibrated to reproduce a fundamental diagram that matches an empirical one proposed by Weidmann. Such experiments prove the model to be a useful tool for study of pedestrian dynamics.

  14. Modeling air quality in main cities of Peninsular Malaysia by using a generalized Pareto model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masseran, Nurulkamal; Razali, Ahmad Mahir; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman; Latif, Mohd Talib

    2016-01-01

    The air pollution index (API) is an important figure used for measuring the quality of air in the environment. The API is determined based on the highest average value of individual indices for all the variables which include sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and suspended particulate matter (PM10) at a particular hour. API values that exceed the limit of 100 units indicate an unhealthy status for the exposed environment. This study investigates the risk of occurrences of API values greater than 100 units for eight urban areas in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of January 2004 to December 2014. An extreme value model, known as the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), has been fitted to the API values found. Based on the fitted model, return period for describing the occurrences of API exceeding 100 in the different cities has been computed as the indicator of risk. The results obtained indicated that most of the urban areas considered have a very small risk of occurrence of the unhealthy events, except for Kuala Lumpur, Malacca, and Klang. However, among these three cities, it is found that Klang has the highest risk. Based on all the results obtained, the air quality standard in urban areas of Peninsular Malaysia falls within healthy limits to human beings.

  15. Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Wel, Michel; Ozturk, Sait R.; Dijk, Dick van

    The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility surface. Three model types are considered to examine desirable...

  16. Hierarchical Structured Model for Nonlinear Dynamical Processes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical representation of the process, in this context, is by a set of linear stochastic differential equations (SDE) with unique solutions. The problem of realization is that of constructing the dynamical system by looking at the problem of scientific model building. In model building, one must be able to calculate the ...

  17. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  18. Dynamic modeling of the INAPRO aquaponic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karimanzira, Divas; Keesman, Karel J.; Kloas, Werner; Baganz, Daniela; Rauschenbach, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The use of modeling techniques to analyze aquaponics systems is demonstrated with an example of dynamic modeling for the production of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicon) using the innovative double recirculating aquaponic system ASTAF-PRO. For the management

  19. Automated main-chain model building by template matching and iterative fragment extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terwilliger, Thomas C.

    2003-01-01

    A method for automated macromolecular main-chain model building is described. An algorithm for the automated macromolecular model building of polypeptide backbones is described. The procedure is hierarchical. In the initial stages, many overlapping polypeptide fragments are built. In subsequent stages, the fragments are extended and then connected. Identification of the locations of helical and β-strand regions is carried out by FFT-based template matching. Fragment libraries of helices and β-strands from refined protein structures are then positioned at the potential locations of helices and strands and the longest segments that fit the electron-density map are chosen. The helices and strands are then extended using fragment libraries consisting of sequences three amino acids long derived from refined protein structures. The resulting segments of polypeptide chain are then connected by choosing those which overlap at two or more C α positions. The fully automated procedure has been implemented in RESOLVE and is capable of model building at resolutions as low as 3.5 Å. The algorithm is useful for building a preliminary main-chain model that can serve as a basis for refinement and side-chain addition

  20. Just value of the Tactebel energy: an valuation from the main models of pricing asset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Campos

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the current fair value of Tractebel Energia, from the main asset pricing models. The company was taken as the object due to its stable growth and the ease of obtaining data, since it is located in the city of Florianopolis. Nevertheless, the volatility in its shares has been priced aroused interest. Therefore, this study intended to provide subsidy for the decision making of investors regarding the purchase or sale of company stock. For this, the theoretical treat on the concept of asset valuation and the main models available, emphasizing their applications and limitations, which are: assessment book on, discounted dividend model and discounted cash flow. Regarding the methodological aspect, the research fits into exploratory, descriptive, highly quantitative field study and case. Moreover, it was made use of desk research, literature, interview and program Economática. Thus, the analysis of data initially sought to raise the assumptions demanded by each of the models surveyed ad apply them. The results were then compared and adjusted so that there is consistency. He was later adopted an arithmetic mean to assign a fair value to the company. From this average was defined as an acceptance range, depending on the variability of results and uncertainty in the estimates.

  1. Agent-Based Modeling of Harvest Decisions by Small Scale Forest Landowners in Maine, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Leahy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale forests are an excellent example of coupled social-ecological systems, which involve human and biophysical subsystems with complex two-way feedback interactions. The multifaceted nature of landowner decisions drives a significant need to better understand decision-making processes, reactions to policy, and combined impacts on ecosystems in a comprehensive manner. Small-scale forests require an integrated approach to modeling the social and biophysical components comprehensively. Agent-based modeling involves modeling individualistic behavior and interpreting patterns that emerge. The interaction between agents and their environments makes this a valuable tool to assess repeated decisions of individual landowners responding to changing environmental conditions. Agent-based models can be used to determine potential ecological, economic, and social outcomes of landowner decisions and reactions to changing conditions. A forest landowner agent-based model experiment was developed to model timber harvesting in Maine, USA. We present baseline simulation results and compare the effect of a social change (an increased tax rate and a biophysical change (a pest outbreak resulting in increased tree mortality on the system. These three scenarios were analyzed using ANOVA and MANOVA tests on harvested hectares and landowner goal scores to assess landowner behavior and priorities by action. We conclude by reviewing implications for future modeling efforts.

  2. Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators

  3. Dynamical modeling of surface tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brackbill, J.U.; Kothe, D.B.

    1996-01-01

    In a recent review it is said that free-surface flows ''represent some of the difficult remaining challenges in computational fluid dynamics''. There has been progress with the development of new approaches to treating interfaces, such as the level-set method and the improvement of older methods such as the VOF method. A common theme of many of the new developments has been the regularization of discontinuities at the interface. One example of this approach is the continuum surface force (CSF) formulation for surface tension, which replaces the surface stress given by Laplace's equation by an equivalent volume force. Here, we describe how CSF might be made more useful. Specifically, we consider a derivation of the CSF equations from a minimization of surface energy as outlined by Jacqmin. This reformulation suggests that if one eliminates the computation of curvature in terms of a unit normal vector, parasitic currents may be eliminated For this reformulation to work, it is necessary that transition region thickness be controlled. Various means for this, in addition to the one discussed by Jacqmin are discussed

  4. Nonlinear dynamic phenomena in the beer model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Laugesen, Jakob Lund

    2007-01-01

    The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we ...... in models that use piecewise-linear functions to represent nonlinearities are likely to show similar qualitative differences from the bifurcations known from smooth systems.......The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we...... present a formal bifurcation analysis to analyse the complex dynamics produced by the model. Consistent with the rules of the game, the model constitutes a piecewise-linear map with nonlinearities arising from non-negativity constraints. The bifurcations that occur in piecewise-linear systems...

  5. Modelling biased human trust dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; Jaffry, S.W.; Maanen, P.P. van; Treur, J.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. Within human trust related behaviour, according to the literature from the domains of Psychology and Social Sciences often non-rational behaviour can be observed. Current trust models that have been developed typically do not incorporate non-rational elements in the trust formation

  6. A Finite Element Model for Mechanical Analysis of LHC Main Dipole Magnet Coils

    CERN Document Server

    Pojer, Mirko; Scandale, Walter

    2007-01-01

    After years of studies and observations, the mechanical stability of the LHC main dipole magnets still remains an open issue. The robustness of these magnets has already been asserted and their reliability in operation is not far from being proven. However, anomalous mechanical behaviors sometimes observed are not yet completely understood. A finite element model, which has been recently developed at CERN, aims at providing an instrument for better explaining these anomalies. Cable modeling and contact between elements, friction and mechanical hysteresis are the key features of this model. The simulation of the hysteresis experienced by the coil during collaring, presented here, is the starting point for the representation of the whole life cycle of the dipole coil.

  7. Modelling oxygen transfer using dynamic alpha factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lu-Man; Garrido-Baserba, Manel; Nolasco, Daniel; Al-Omari, Ahmed; DeClippeleir, Haydee; Murthy, Sudhir; Rosso, Diego

    2017-11-01

    Due to the importance of wastewater aeration in meeting treatment requirements and due to its elevated energy intensity, it is important to describe the real nature of an aeration system to improve design and specification, performance prediction, energy consumption, and process sustainability. Because organic loadings drive aeration efficiency to its lowest value when the oxygen demand (energy) is the highest, the implications of considering their dynamic nature on energy costs are of utmost importance. A dynamic model aimed at identifying conservation opportunities is presented. The model developed describes the correlation between the COD concentration and the α factor in activated sludge. Using the proposed model, the aeration efficiency is calculated as a function of the organic loading (i.e. COD). This results in predictions of oxygen transfer values that are more realistic than the traditional method of assuming constant α values. The model was applied to two water resource recovery facilities, and was calibrated and validated with time-sensitive databases. Our improved aeration model structure increases the quality of prediction of field data through the recognition of the dynamic nature of the alpha factor (α) as a function of the applied oxygen demand. For the cases presented herein, the model prediction of airflow improved by 20-35% when dynamic α is used. The proposed model offers a quantitative tool for the prediction of energy demand and for minimizing aeration design uncertainty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling the Dynamics of Compromised Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soper, B; Merl, D M

    2011-09-12

    Accurate predictive models of compromised networks would contribute greatly to improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the detection and control of network attacks. Compartmental epidemiological models have been applied to modeling attack vectors such as viruses and worms. We extend the application of these models to capture a wider class of dynamics applicable to cyber security. By making basic assumptions regarding network topology we use multi-group epidemiological models and reaction rate kinetics to model the stochastic evolution of a compromised network. The Gillespie Algorithm is used to run simulations under a worst case scenario in which the intruder follows the basic connection rates of network traffic as a method of obfuscation.

  9. Main steam line break accident simulation of APR1400 using the model of ATLAS facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekariansyah, A. S.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, Geni R.

    2018-02-01

    A main steam line break simulation for APR1400 as an advanced design of PWR has been performed using the RELAP5 code. The simulation was conducted in a model of thermal-hydraulic test facility called as ATLAS, which represents a scaled down facility of the APR1400 design. The main steam line break event is described in a open-access safety report document, in which initial conditions and assumptionsfor the analysis were utilized in performing the simulation and analysis of the selected parameter. The objective of this work was to conduct a benchmark activities by comparing the simulation results of the CESEC-III code as a conservative approach code with the results of RELAP5 as a best-estimate code. Based on the simulation results, a general similarity in the behavior of selected parameters was observed between the two codes. However the degree of accuracy still needs further research an analysis by comparing with the other best-estimate code. Uncertainties arising from the ATLAS model should be minimized by taking into account much more specific data in developing the APR1400 model.

  10. Purpose-in-Life Test: Comparison of the Main Models in Patients with Mental Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Alandete, Joaquín; Marco, José H; Pérez, Sandra

    2017-06-27

    The aim of this study was to compare the main proposed models for the Purpose-In-Life Test, a scale for assessing meaning in life, in 229 Spanish patients with mental disorders (195 females and 34 males, aged 13-68, M = 34.43, SD = 12.19). Confirmatory factor-analytic procedures showed that the original model of the Purpose-In-Life Test, a 20-item unidimensional scale, obtained a better fit than the other analyzed models, SBχ2(df) = 326.27(170), SBχ2/df = 1.92, TLI = .93, CFI = .94, IFI = .94, RMSEA = .063 (90% CI [.053, .074]), CAIC = -767.46, as well as a high internal consistency, (α = .90). The main conclusion is that the original version of the Purpose-In-Life shows a robust construct validity in a clinical population. However, authors recommend an in-depth psychometric analysis of the Purpose-In-Life Test among clinical population. Likewise, the importance of assessing meaning in life in order to enhance psychotherapeutic treatment is noted.

  11. Local Hotspots In The Gulf Of Maine: Spatial Overlap Between Dynamic Aggregations Of Primary Productivity And Fish Abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribera, M.

    2016-12-01

    Identification of biological hotspots may be a necessary step toward ecosystem-based management goals, as these often signal underlying processes that aggregate or stimulate resources in a particular location. However, previously used metrics to locate these hotspots are not easily adapted to local marine datasets, in part due to the high spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton populations. While most fish species in temperate regions are well adapted to the seasonal variability of phytoplankton abundance, it is the variability beyond this predictable pattern (i.e. anomalies) that may heavily impact the abundance and spatial distribution of organisms higher up the food chain. The objective of this study was to identify local-scale biological hotspots in a region in the western side of the Gulf of Maine using remote sensing chlorophyll-a data (from MERIS sensor), and to study the spatial overlap between these hotspots and high concentrations of fish abundance (derived from VTR dataset). For this reason, we defined a new hotspot metric that identified as a hotspot any area that consistently exhibited high-magnitude anomalies through time, a sign of highly dynamic communities. We improved on previous indices by minimizing the effect that different means and variances across space may have on the results, a situation that often occurs when comparing coastal and offshore systems. Results show a significant spatial correlation between pelagic fish abundance and aggregations of primary productivity. Spatial correlations were also significant between benthic fish abundance and primary productivity hotspots, but only during spring months. We argue that this new hotspot index compliments existing global measures as it helps managers understand the dynamic characteristics of a complex marine system. It also provides a unique metric that is easily compared across space and between different trophic levels, which may facilitate future ecosystem-wide studies.

  12. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  13. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...California sea lions . The model will be calibrated against measured arterial and venous PO2 levels from California sea lions , and estimate the error between...existing model with new species-specific parameter estimates for California sea lions . Aim 2: Compare estimated and measured arterial and venous

  14. Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Peng, Mei; He, Xing; Huang, Junjian; Dong, Tao

    2013-01-01

    Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that th...

  15. Nonparametric and semiparametric dynamic additive regression models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas Harder; Martinussen, Torben

    Dynamic additive regression models provide a flexible class of models for analysis of longitudinal data. The approach suggested in this work is suited for measurements obtained at random time points and aims at estimating time-varying effects. Both fully nonparametric and semiparametric models can...... in special cases. We investigate the finite sample properties of the estimators and conclude that the asymptotic results are valid for even samll samples....

  16. Ecological Niche Modeling of main reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholamrezaei, Mostafa; Mohebali, Mehdi; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Sedaghat, Mohammad Mehdi; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza

    2016-08-01

    Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), caused by Leishmania major, is a common zoonotic vector-borne disease in Iran. Close contact with infected reservoir hosts increases the probability of transmission of Leishmania parasite infections to susceptible humans. Four gerbil species (Rodentia: Gerbillidae) serve as the main reservoir hosts for ZCL in different endemic foci of Iran. These species include Rhombomys opimus, Meriones libycus, Meriones hurrianae and Tatera indica; while notable infection has been reported in Nesokia indica as well. The purpose of this study is to model the distribution of these reservoirs to identify the risk areas of ZCL. A data bank was developed including all published data during the period of 1970-2015. Maximum entropy model was used to find the most appropriate ecological niches for each species. The areas under curve obtained were 0.961, 0.927, 0.922, 0.997 and 0.899, instead of 1, for training test in R. opimus, M. libycus, T. indica, M. hurrianae and N. indica, respectively. The environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation was slope for R. opimus and N. indica, annual mean temperature for M. libycus, and seasonal precipitation for T. indica and M. hurrianae. Summation of presence probabilities for three main species, i.e., R. opimus, M. libycus and T. indica revealed favorable ecological niches in wide areas of 16 provinces. This is the first study to predict the distribution of ZCL reservoir hosts in Iran. Climatology and topography variables had high contributions toward the prediction of potential distribution of the main reservoir species; therefore, as climate changes, the models should be updated periodically with novel data, and the results should be used in disease-monitoring programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Modeling and interpreting mesoscale network dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khambhati, Ankit N; Sizemore, Ann E; Betzel, Richard F; Bassett, Danielle S

    2017-06-20

    Recent advances in brain imaging techniques, measurement approaches, and storage capacities have provided an unprecedented supply of high temporal resolution neural data. These data present a remarkable opportunity to gain a mechanistic understanding not just of circuit structure, but also of circuit dynamics, and its role in cognition and disease. Such understanding necessitates a description of the raw observations, and a delineation of computational models and mathematical theories that accurately capture fundamental principles behind the observations. Here we review recent advances in a range of modeling approaches that embrace the temporally-evolving interconnected structure of the brain and summarize that structure in a dynamic graph. We describe recent efforts to model dynamic patterns of connectivity, dynamic patterns of activity, and patterns of activity atop connectivity. In the context of these models, we review important considerations in statistical testing, including parametric and non-parametric approaches. Finally, we offer thoughts on careful and accurate interpretation of dynamic graph architecture, and outline important future directions for method development. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Dynamic Modeling of Solar Dynamic Components and Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochstein, John I.; Korakianitis, T.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this grant was to support NASA in modeling efforts to predict the transient dynamic and thermodynamic response of the space station solar dynamic power generation system. In order to meet the initial schedule requirement of providing results in time to support installation of the system as part of the initial phase of space station, early efforts were executed with alacrity and often in parallel. Initially, methods to predict the transient response of a Rankine as well as a Brayton cycle were developed. Review of preliminary design concepts led NASA to select a regenerative gas-turbine cycle using a helium-xenon mixture as the working fluid and, from that point forward, the modeling effort focused exclusively on that system. Although initial project planning called for a three year period of performance, revised NASA schedules moved system installation to later and later phases of station deployment. Eventually, NASA selected to halt development of the solar dynamic power generation system for space station and to reduce support for this project to two-thirds of the original level.

  19. Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-19

    IKENET  and  the   Enron  e-­‐ mail  datasets.  We  show  that  the  self-­‐exciting  models  adequately  capture  major...the  West  Point  and   Enron   networks.  This  work  is  under  review  at  J.  Amer.  Stat.  Assoc.   Agent

  20. Reconstructing nonlinear dynamic models of gene regulation using stochastic sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinelt Gerhard

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The reconstruction of gene regulatory networks from time series gene expression data is one of the most difficult problems in systems biology. This is due to several reasons, among them the combinatorial explosion of possible network topologies, limited information content of the experimental data with high levels of noise, and the complexity of gene regulation at the transcriptional, translational and post-translational levels. At the same time, quantitative, dynamic models, ideally with probability distributions over model topologies and parameters, are highly desirable. Results We present a novel approach to infer such models from data, based on nonlinear differential equations, which we embed into a stochastic Bayesian framework. We thus address both the stochasticity of experimental data and the need for quantitative dynamic models. Furthermore, the Bayesian framework allows it to easily integrate prior knowledge into the inference process. Using stochastic sampling from the Bayes' posterior distribution, our approach can infer different likely network topologies and model parameters along with their respective probabilities from given data. We evaluate our approach on simulated data and the challenge #3 data from the DREAM 2 initiative. On the simulated data, we study effects of different levels of noise and dataset sizes. Results on real data show that the dynamics and main regulatory interactions are correctly reconstructed. Conclusions Our approach combines dynamic modeling using differential equations with a stochastic learning framework, thus bridging the gap between biophysical modeling and stochastic inference approaches. Results show that the method can reap the advantages of both worlds, and allows the reconstruction of biophysically accurate dynamic models from noisy data. In addition, the stochastic learning framework used permits the computation of probability distributions over models and model parameters

  1. Modeling Dynamic Regulatory Processes in Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Jason E.; Jarman, Kenneth; Taylor, Ronald; Lancaster, Mary; Shankaran, Harish; Vartanian, Keri B.; Stevens, Susan L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P.; Sanfilippo, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The ability to examine the behavior of biological systems in silico has the potential to greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in diseases, such as stroke, where in vivo analysis is time intensive and costly. In this paper we describe an approach for in silico examination of responses of the blood transcriptome to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from the data relating these functional clusters to each other in terms of their regulatory influence on one another. Dynamic models were developed by coupling these ODEs into a model that simulates the expression of regulated functional clusters. By changing the magnitude of gene expression in the initial input state it was possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions since the dynamic model only requires an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. We discuss the implications of our models on neuroprotection in stroke, explore the limitations of the approach, and report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different neuroprotective paradigms. PMID:23071432

  2. Modeling dynamic regulatory processes in stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason E McDermott

    Full Text Available The ability to examine the behavior of biological systems in silico has the potential to greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in diseases, such as stroke, where in vivo analysis is time intensive and costly. In this paper we describe an approach for in silico examination of responses of the blood transcriptome to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs from the data relating these functional clusters to each other in terms of their regulatory influence on one another. Dynamic models were developed by coupling these ODEs into a model that simulates the expression of regulated functional clusters. By changing the magnitude of gene expression in the initial input state it was possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions since the dynamic model only requires an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. We discuss the implications of our models on neuroprotection in stroke, explore the limitations of the approach, and report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different neuroprotective paradigms.

  3. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  4. Spin glass model for dynamics of cell reprogramming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusuluri, Sai Teja; Lang, Alex H.; Mehta, Pankaj; Castillo, Horacio E.

    2015-03-01

    Recent experiments show that differentiated cells can be reprogrammed to become pluripotent stem cells. The possible cell fates can be modeled as attractors in a dynamical system, the ``epigenetic landscape.'' Both cellular differentiation and reprogramming can be described in the landscape picture as motion from one attractor to another attractor. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in a simple model of the landscape. This model is based on spin glass theory and it can be used to construct a simulated epigenetic landscape starting from the experimental genomic data. We re-analyse data from several cell reprogramming experiments and compare with our simulation results. We find that the model can reproduce some of the main features of the dynamics of cell reprogramming.

  5. Modeling the dynamics of dissent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun; Holme, Petter; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-11-01

    We investigate the formation of opinion against authority in an authoritarian society composed of agents with different levels of authority. We explore a ;dissenting; opinion, held by lower-ranking, obedient, or less authoritative people, spreading in an environment of an ;affirmative; opinion held by authoritative leaders. A real-world example would be a corrupt society where people revolt against such leaders, but it can be applied to more general situations. In our model, agents can change their opinion depending on their authority relative to their neighbors and their own confidence level. In addition, with a certain probability, agents can override the affirmative opinion to take the dissenting opinion of a neighbor. Based on analytic derivation and numerical simulations, we observe that both the network structure and heterogeneity in authority, and their correlation, significantly affect the possibility of the dissenting opinion to spread through the population. In particular, the dissenting opinion is suppressed when the authority distribution is very heterogeneous and there exists a positive correlation between the authority and the number of neighbors of people (degree). Except for such an extreme case, though, spreading of the dissenting opinion takes place when people have the tendency to override the authority to hold the dissenting opinion, but the dissenting opinion can take a long time to spread to the entire society, depending on the model parameters. We argue that the internal social structure of agents sets the scale of the time to reach consensus, based on the analysis of the underlying structural properties of opinion spreading.

  6. Dynamical properties of the Rabi model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Binglu; Zhou, Huili; Chen, Shujie; Xianlong, Gao; Wang, Kelin

    2017-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of the quantum Rabi model using a systematic expansion method. Based on the observation that the parity symmetry of the Rabi model is kept during evolution of the states, we decompose the initial state and the time-dependent one into positive and negative parity parts expanded by superposition of the coherent states. The evolutions of the corresponding positive and the negative parities are obtained, in which the expansion coefficients in the dynamical equations are known from the derived recurrence relation. (paper)

  7. MODELING MAIN BODY OF OVERCROSSING BRIDGE BASED ON VEHICLE-BORNE LASER SCANNING DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Chen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle-borne laser scanning (VBLS is widely used to collect urban data for various mapping and modelling systems. This paper proposes a strategy of feature extraction and 3d model reconstruction for main body of overcrossing bridges based on VBLS point clouds. As the bridges usually have a large span, and the clouds data is often affected by obstacles, we have to use round-trip cloud data to avoid missing part. To begin with, pick out the cloud of the bridge body by an interactive clip-box, and group points by scan-line, then sort the points by scanning angle on each scan line. Since the position under the vehicle have a fixed scan-angle, a virtual path can be obtained. Secondly, extract horizontal line segments perpendicular to the virtual path along adjacent scan-lines, and then cluster line segments into long line-strings, which represent the top and bottom edge. Finally, regularize the line-strings and build 3d surface model of the bridge body. Experimental studies have demonstrated its efficiency and accuracy in case of building bridge model. Modelling the stairs at the both end of the bridge will be the direction of the next step.

  8. NCACO-score: An effective main-chain dependent scoring function for structure modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Xiaoxi

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Development of effective scoring functions is a critical component to the success of protein structure modeling. Previously, many efforts have been dedicated to the development of scoring functions. Despite these efforts, development of an effective scoring function that can achieve both good accuracy and fast speed still presents a grand challenge. Results Based on a coarse-grained representation of a protein structure by using only four main-chain atoms: N, Cα, C and O, we develop a knowledge-based scoring function, called NCACO-score, that integrates different structural information to rapidly model protein structure from sequence. In testing on the Decoys'R'Us sets, we found that NCACO-score can effectively recognize native conformers from their decoys. Furthermore, we demonstrate that NCACO-score can effectively guide fragment assembly for protein structure prediction, which has achieved a good performance in building the structure models for hard targets from CASP8 in terms of both accuracy and speed. Conclusions Although NCACO-score is developed based on a coarse-grained model, it is able to discriminate native conformers from decoy conformers with high accuracy. NCACO is a very effective scoring function for structure modeling.

  9. Modeling Main Body of Overcrossing Bridge Based on Vehicle-Borne Laser Scanning Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Chen, M.; Wei, Z.; Zhong, R.

    2017-09-01

    Vehicle-borne laser scanning (VBLS) is widely used to collect urban data for various mapping and modelling systems. This paper proposes a strategy of feature extraction and 3d model reconstruction for main body of overcrossing bridges based on VBLS point clouds. As the bridges usually have a large span, and the clouds data is often affected by obstacles, we have to use round-trip cloud data to avoid missing part. To begin with, pick out the cloud of the bridge body by an interactive clip-box, and group points by scan-line, then sort the points by scanning angle on each scan line. Since the position under the vehicle have a fixed scan-angle, a virtual path can be obtained. Secondly, extract horizontal line segments perpendicular to the virtual path along adjacent scan-lines, and then cluster line segments into long line-strings, which represent the top and bottom edge. Finally, regularize the line-strings and build 3d surface model of the bridge body. Experimental studies have demonstrated its efficiency and accuracy in case of building bridge model. Modelling the stairs at the both end of the bridge will be the direction of the next step.

  10. Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

    2008-01-01

    In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

  11. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  12. Modeling emotional dynamics : currency versus field.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sallach, D .L.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago

    2008-08-01

    Randall Collins has introduced a simplified model of emotional dynamics in which emotional energy, heightened and focused by interaction rituals, serves as a common denominator for social exchange: a generic form of currency, except that it is active in a far broader range of social transactions. While the scope of this theory is attractive, the specifics of the model remain unconvincing. After a critical assessment of the currency theory of emotion, a field model of emotion is introduced that adds expressiveness by locating emotional valence within its cognitive context, thereby creating an integrated orientation field. The result is a model which claims less in the way of motivational specificity, but is more satisfactory in modeling the dynamic interaction between cognitive and emotional orientations at both individual and social levels.

  13. A simple 2D SOC model for one of the main sources of geomagnetic disturbances: Flares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meirelles, M.C.; Dias, V.H.A.; Oliva, D.; Papa, A.R.R.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a simple model for solar flares, one of the main sources of geomagnetic disturbances. We have obtained power-laws for the probability distribution functions of some relevant physical characteristics of flares which could serve as the fingerprint of a critical state at the base of such phenomena and, given that we have not introduced a fine tune mechanism, of self-organized criticality. We compare our results with some recent experimental work on the statistics of flares and analyze the possible connection of these power laws with others already found by our group in geomagnetic disturbances distributions. We also present some limitations of our model as well as possible extensions and corrections to be taken into account in future works.

  14. Modeling of the Voltage Waves in the LHC Main Dipole Circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Ravaioli, E; Formenti, F; Steckert, J; Thiesen, H; Verweij, A

    2012-01-01

    When a fast power abort is triggered in the LHC main dipole chain, voltage transients are generated at the output of the power converter and across the energy-extraction switches. The voltage waves propagate through the chain of 154 superconducting dipoles and can have undesired effects leading to spurious triggering of the quench protection system and firing of the quench heaters. The phase velocity of the waves travelling along the chain changes due to the inhomogeneous AC behavior of the dipoles. Furthermore, complex phenomena of reflection and superposition are present in the circuit. For these reasons analytical calculations are not sufficient for properly analyzing the circuit behavior after a fast power abort. The transients following the switch-off of the power converter and the opening of the switches are analyzed by means of a complete electrical model, developed with the Cadence© suite (PSpice© based). The model comprises all the electrical components of the circuit, additional components simula...

  15. Modeling of a dependence between human operators in advanced main control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jaewhan; Jang, Seung-Cheol; Shin, Yeong Cheol

    2009-01-01

    For the human reliability analysis of main control room (MCR) operations, not only parameters such as the given situation and capability of the operators but also the dependence between the actions of the operators should be considered because MCR operations are team operations. The dependence between operators might be more prevalent in an advanced MCR in which operators share the same information using a computerized monitoring system or a computerized procedure system. Therefore, this work focused on the computerized operation environment of advanced MCRs and proposed a model to consider the dependence representing the recovery possibility of an operator error by another operator. The proposed model estimates human error probability values by considering adjustment values for a situation and dependence values for operators during the same operation using independent event trees. This work can be used to quantitatively calculate a more reliable operation failure probability for an advanced MCR. (author)

  16. A Study on Logistics Cluster Competitiveness among Asia Main Countries using the Porter's Diamond Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae Won Chung

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Measurement and discussions of logistics cluster competitiveness with a national approach are required to boost agglomeration effects and potentially create logistics efficiency and productivity. This study developed assessment criteria of logistics cluster competitiveness based on Porter's diamond model, calculated the weight of each criterion by the AHP method, and finally evaluated and discussed logistics cluster competitiveness among Asia main countries. The results indicate that there was a large difference in logistics cluster competitiveness among six countries. The logistics cluster competitiveness scores of Singapore (7.93, Japan (7.38, and Hong Kong (7.04 are observably different from those of China (5.40, Korea (5.08, and Malaysia (3.46. Singapore, with the highest competitiveness score, revealed its absolute advantage in logistics cluster indices. These research results intend to provide logistics policy makers with some strategic recommendations, and may serve as a baseline for further logistics cluster studies using Porter's diamond model.

  17. Dynamical Frustration in ANNNI Model and Annealing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Parongama; Das, Pratap K.

    Simulated annealing is usually applied to systems with frustration, like spin glasses and optimisation problems, where the energy landscape is complex with many spurious minima. There are certain other systems, however, which have very simple energy landscape picture and ground states, but still the system fails to reach its ground state during a energy-lowering dynamical process. This situation corresponds to "dynamical frustration ". We have specifically considered the case of the axial next nearest neighbour (ANNNI) chain, where such a situation is encountered. In Sect. II, we elaborate the notion of dynamic frustration with examples and in Sect. III, the dynamics in ANNNI model is discussed in detail. The results of application of the classical and quantum annealing are discussed in Sects. IV and V. Summary and some concluding comments are given in the last section.

  18. Grammar resources for modelling dialogue dynamically.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargett, Andrew; Gregoromichelaki, Eleni; Kempson, Ruth; Purver, Matthew; Sato, Yo

    2009-12-01

    This paper argues that by analysing language as a mechanism for growth of information (Cann et al. in The Dynamics of Language, Elsevier, Oxford, 2005; Kempson et al. in Dynamic Syntax, Blackwell, Oxford, 2001), not only does a unitary basis for ellipsis become possible, otherwise thought to be irredeemably heterogeneous, but also a whole range of sub-types of ellipsis, otherwise thought to be unique to dialogue, emerge as natural consequences of use of language in context. Dialogue fragment types modelled include reformulations, clarification requests, extensions, and acknowledgements. Buttressing this analysis, we show how incremental use of fragments serves to progressively narrow down the otherwise mushrooming interpretational alternatives in language use, and hence is central to fluent conversational interaction. We conclude that, by its ability to reflect dialogue dynamics as a core phenomenon of language use, a grammar with inbuilt parsing dynamics opens up the potential for analysing language as a mechanism for communicative interaction.

  19. Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model: DREAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, G. D.; Chen, Y.; Cunningham, G. S.; Friedel, R. W. H.; Henderson, M. G.; Jordanova, V. K.; Koller, J.; Morley, S. K.; Thomsen, M. F.; Zaharia, S.

    2012-03-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed to provide accurate, global specification of the Earth's radiation belts and to better understand the physical processes that control radiation belt structure and dynamics. DREAM is designed using a modular software approach in order to provide a computational framework that makes it easy to change components such as the global magnetic field model, radiation belt dynamics model, boundary conditions, etc. This paper provides a broad overview of the DREAM model and a summary of some of the principal results to date. We describe the structure of the DREAM model, describe the five major components, and illustrate the various options that are available for each component. We discuss how the data assimilation is performed and the data preprocessing and postprocessing that are required for producing the final DREAM outputs. We describe how we apply global magnetic field models for conversion between flux and phase space density and, in particular, the benefits of using a self-consistent, coupled ring current-magnetic field model. We discuss some of the results from DREAM including testing of boundary condition assumptions and effects of adding a source term to radial diffusion models. We also describe some of the testing and validation of DREAM and prospects for future development.

  20. Rhythms and community dynamics of a hydrothermal tubeworm assemblage at main endeavour field - a multidisciplinary deep-sea observatory approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daphne Cuvelier

    Full Text Available The NEPTUNE cabled observatory network hosts an ecological module called TEMPO-mini that focuses on hydrothermal vent ecology and time series, granting us real-time access to data originating from the deep sea. In 2011-2012, during TEMPO-mini's first deployment on the NEPTUNE network, the module recorded high-resolution imagery, temperature, iron (Fe and oxygen on a hydrothermal assemblage at 2186 m depth at Main Endeavour Field (North East Pacific. 23 days of continuous imagery were analysed with an hourly frequency. Community dynamics were analysed in detail for Ridgeia piscesae tubeworms, Polynoidae, Pycnogonida and Buccinidae, documenting faunal variations, natural change and biotic interactions in the filmed tubeworm assemblage as well as links with the local environment. Semi-diurnal and diurnal periods were identified both in fauna and environment, revealing the influence of tidal cycles. Species interactions were described and distribution patterns were indicative of possible microhabitat preference. The importance of high-resolution frequencies (<1 h to fully comprehend rhythms in fauna and environment was emphasised, as well as the need for the development of automated or semi-automated imagery analysis tools.

  1. Modeling the water-satisfied degree for production of the main food crops in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Guangming; Yang, Yumeng; Tu, Zhenfa; Jie, Yi; Yu, Qiwu; Hu, Xiaoyan; Yu, Hailong; Zhou, Ruirui; Chen, Xiaoxu; Wang, Hongzhi

    2016-03-15

    Water resources are one of the important factors that influence regional crop production and the food security of humans. Most traditional models of crop water demand analysis are built on the basis of a certain crop or macroscopic analysis, which neglect regional crop allocation and the difference of water demand in different crop growing periods. In this paper, a new assessing model, the satisfied degree of crop water requirement, is developed to assess the impacts of water resources on production of six main food crops in China. The six main food crops are spring wheat, winter wheat, corn, early season rice, middle-season rice and late rice. The results show that: (1) there are serious risks of water shortage in China, even in south China with its abundant precipitation; (2) the satisfied degree of crop water demand represents great temporal-spatial changes. On spatial distribution the risks are high in major bases of food production due to influences of cropping system and crop-combinations. Northwest China is a special interesting case. In seasonal fluctuation water shortage is severe in March and September. These risks seriously restrict food production in China. The results also show that the strategic measures of water resources management must be chosen carefully to deal with food security and regional sustainable development in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Main concepts and objectives of fuel performance modelling and core development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassmann, K.; O'Carroll, C.; Van de Laar, J.; Ray, I.

    1994-01-01

    The basic concepts of the fuel rod modelling was reviewed and their limitations are discussed.Three more general modelling concepts are briefly outlined: one-dimensional models versus 2-D or 3-D models; steady-state versus transient modelling; empirical versus mechanical models. The fuel rod behaviour is determined by thermal, mechanical and physical processes such as densification, swelling, gas release, irradiation damage etc. It is shown that the macroscopic behaviour of a fuel rod is to a large extent determined by the local UO 2 microstructure. Any fuel rod model must include the solution of the heat conduction equation and the principal mechanical equations i. e. equilibrium and compatibility, together with constitutive equations. The basic limitations from the different assumptions made for the solution of the governing equations are identified. It was shown that the thermal and the mechanical analysis are strongly coupled and therefore errors are propagated. The individual correlations and processes are also not error-free and in only some cases can individual errors be estimated. There is almost for all processes a good understanding of the dominating parameters but the unsolved problem is how local quantities such as pores and grain structure, stresses etc. evolve during the irradiation. Thus the wrong input data for local processes is considered as one of the main source of uncertainty. Fission gas release and swelling could not be described by the corresponding equations without introducing some free parameters. The center line predictions of two codes for FUMEX blind exercise are given. It is stated that since the D-COM exercise in 1984, fuel rod performance codes have been improved considerably and must be now considered as mature tools for further optimisation of fuel rods. 1 tab., 12 figs., 22 refs

  3. Main modelling features of the ASTEC V2.1 major version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelard, P.; Belon, S.; Bosland, L.; Carénini, L.; Coindreau, O.; Cousin, F.; Marchetto, C.; Nowack, H.; Piar, L.; Chailan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Recent modelling improvements of the ASTEC European severe accident code are outlined. • Key new physical models now available in the ASTEC V2.1 major version are described. • ASTEC progress towards a multi-design reactor code is illustrated for BWR and PHWR. • ASTEC strong link with the on-going EC CESAM FP7 project is emphasized. • Main remaining modelling issues (on which IRSN efforts are now directing) are given. - Abstract: A new major version of the European severe accident integral code ASTEC, developed by IRSN with some GRS support, was delivered in November 2015 to the ASTEC worldwide community. Main modelling features of this V2.1 version are summarised in this paper. In particular, the in-vessel coupling technique between the reactor coolant system thermal-hydraulics module and the core degradation module has been strongly re-engineered to remove some well-known weaknesses of the former V2.0 series. The V2.1 version also includes new core degradation models specifically addressing BWR and PHWR reactor types, as well as several other physical modelling improvements, notably on reflooding of severely damaged cores, Zircaloy oxidation under air atmosphere, corium coolability during corium concrete interaction and source term evaluation. Moreover, this V2.1 version constitutes the back-bone of the CESAM FP7 project, which final objective is to further improve ASTEC for use in Severe Accident Management analysis of the Gen.II–III nuclear power plants presently under operation or foreseen in near future in Europe. As part of this European project, IRSN efforts to continuously improve both code numerical robustness and computing performances at plant scale as well as users’ tools are being intensified. Besides, ASTEC will continue capitalising the whole knowledge on severe accidents phenomenology by progressively keeping physical models at the state of the art through a regular feed-back from the interpretation of the current and

  4. A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Waema Mbogo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

  5. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

  6. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

  7. System and mathematical modeling of quadrotor dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Jacob M.; Kim, Jinho; Gadsden, S. Andrew; Wilkerson, Stephen A.

    2015-05-01

    Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are becoming increasingly visible in our daily lives; and range in operation from search and rescue, monitoring hazardous environments, and to the delivery of goods. One of the most popular UAS are based on a quad-rotor design. These are typically small devices that rely on four propellers for lift and movement. Quad-rotors are inherently unstable, and rely on advanced control methodologies to keep them operating safely and behaving in a predictable and desirable manner. The control of these devices can be enhanced and improved by making use of an accurate dynamic model. In this paper, we examine a simple quadrotor model, and note some of the additional dynamic considerations that were left out. We then compare simulation results of the simple model with that of another comprehensive model.

  8. New concepts for dynamic plant uptake models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rein, Arno; Legind, Charlotte Nielsen; Trapp, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Models for the prediction of chemical uptake into plants are widely applied tools for human and wildlife exposure assessment, pesticide design and for environmental biotechnology such as phytoremediation. Steady-state considerations are often applied, because they are simple and have a small data...... need. However, often the emission pattern is non-steady. Examples are pesticide spraying, or the application of manure and sewage sludge on agricultural fields. In these scenarios, steady-state solutions are not valid, and dynamic simulation is required. We compared different approaches for dynamic...... modelling of plant uptake in order to identify relevant processes and timescales of processes in the soil–plant–air system. Based on the outcome, a new model concept for plant uptake models was developed, approximating logistic growth and coupling transpiration to growing plant mass. The underlying system...

  9. On the mathematical modeling of soccer dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, J. A. Tenreiro; Lopes, António M.

    2017-12-01

    This paper addresses the modeling and dynamical analysis of soccer teams. Two modeling perspectives based on the concepts of fractional calculus are adopted. In the first, the power law behavior and fractional-order integration are explored. In the second, a league season is interpreted in the light of a system where the teams are represented by objects (particles) that evolve in time and interact (collide) at successive rounds with dynamics driven by the outcomes of the matches. The two proposed models embed implicitly details of players and coaches, or strategical and tactical maneuvers during the matches. Therefore, the scale of observation focuses on the teams behavior in the scope of the observed variables. Data characterizing two European soccer leagues in the season 2015-2016 are adopted and processed. The model leads to the emergence of patterns that are analyzed and interpreted.

  10. BWR stability using a reducing dynamical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballestrin Bolea, J. M.; Blazquez Martinez, J. B.

    1990-01-01

    BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical structure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations is non-linear. Simple parametric calculation of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author)

  11. Main Memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A. Boncz (Peter); L. Liu (Lei); M. Tamer Özsu

    2008-01-01

    htmlabstractPrimary storage, presently known as main memory, is the largest memory directly accessible to the CPU in the prevalent Von Neumann model and stores both data and instructions (program code). The CPU continuously reads instructions stored there and executes them. It is also called Random

  12. Record Dynamics in the Parking Lot Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We study the aging dynamics in the parking lot model of granular relaxation with extensive numerical simulations. Our results reveal the log-Poisson statistics in the progression of intermittent events that lead to ever slower increases in the density. Defining clusters as domains of parked cars...

  13. Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kendrick, D.A.; Amman, H.M.; Tucci, M.P.

    This chapter of the Handbook of Computational Economics is mostly about research on active learning and is confined to discussion of learning in dynamic models in which the systems equations are linear, the criterion function is quadratic and the additive noise terms are Gaussian. Though there is

  14. Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1998-01-01

    This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...

  15. Modelling the Dynamics of Emotional Awareness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.; Schaub, T.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, based on literature from Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, a computational agent model is introduced incorporating the role of emotional awareness states in the dynamics of action generation. More specifically, it covers both automatic, unconscious (bottom-up) and more cognitive

  16. Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Binayak S Choudhury

    2018-03-16

    Mar 16, 2018 ... show the phase-space analysis for the 'best-fit Universe' or concordance model. In our analysis, we observe the existence of late-time scaling attractors. Keywords. Accelerated expansion of the Universe; quintessence; dynamical system; Friedmann–Lemaitre–. Robertson–Walker Universe; interacting ...

  17. Dynamic Model Development for Interplanetary Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun-Seo Park

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamic model development for interplanetary navigation has been discussed. The Cowell method for special perturbation theories was employed to develop an interplanetary trajectory propagator including the perturbations due to geopotential, the Earth's dynamic polar motion, the gravity of the Sun, the Moon and the other planets in the solar system, the relativistic effect of the Sun, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag. The equations of motion in dynamic model were numerically integrated using Adams-Cowell 11th order predictor-corrector method. To compare the influences of each perturbation, trajectory propagation was performed using initial transfer orbit elements of the Mars Express mission launched in 2003, because it can be the criterion to choose proper perturbation models for navigation upon required accuracy. To investigate the performance of dynamic model developed, it was tested whether the spacecraft can reach the Mars. The interplanetary navigation tool developed in this study demonstrated the spacecraft entering the Mars SOI(Sphere of Influence and its velocity relative to the Mars was less than the escape velocity of the Mars, hence, the spacecraft can arrive at the target planet. The obtained results were also verified by using the AGI Satellite Tool Kit. It is concluded that the developed program is suitable for supporting interplanetary spacecraft mission for a future Korean Mars mission.

  18. Nearly Unbiased Estimationin Dynamic Panel Data Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Carree (Martin)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper introduces two easy to calculate estimators with desirable properties for the autoregressive parameter in dynamic panel data models. The estimators are (nearly) unbiased and perform satisfactorily even for small samples in either the time-series or cross-section dimension.

  19. Modeling of Reactor Kinetics and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthew Johnson; Scott Lucas; Pavel Tsvetkov

    2010-09-01

    In order to model a full fuel cycle in a nuclear reactor, it is necessary to simulate the short time-scale kinetic behavior of the reactor as well as the long time-scale dynamics that occur with fuel burnup. The former is modeled using the point kinetics equations, while the latter is modeled by coupling fuel burnup equations with the kinetics equations. When the equations are solved simultaneously with a nonlinear equation solver, the end result is a code with the unique capability of modeling transients at any time during a fuel cycle.

  20. The quantum Rabi model: solution and dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Qiongtao; Zhong, Honghua; Lee, Chaohong; Batchelor, Murray T

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a review of recent developments on various aspects of the quantum Rabi model. Particular emphasis is given on the exact analytic solution obtained in terms of confluent Heun functions. The analytic solutions for various generalisations of the quantum Rabi model are also discussed. Results are also reviewed on the level statistics and the dynamics of the quantum Rabi model. The article concludes with an introductory overview of several experimental realisations of the quantum Rabi model. An outlook towards future developments is also given. (topical review)

  1. Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....

  2. Uncertainty and its propagation in dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together some characteristics due to uncertainty when we deal with dynamic models and therefore to propagation of uncertainty. The respective role of uncertainty and inaccuracy is examined. A mathematical formalism based on Chapman-Kolmogorov equation allows to define a open-quotes subdynamicsclose quotes where the evolution equation takes the uncertainty into account. The problem of choosing or combining models is examined through a loss function associated to a decision

  3. Bulk dynamics for interfacial growth models

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Cristobal; Garrido, Pedro L.; Santos, Francisco de los

    2000-01-01

    We study the influence of the bulk dynamics of a growing cluster of particles on the properties of its interface. First, we define a general bulk growth model by means of a continuum Master equation for the evolution of the bulk density field. This general model just considers an arbitrary addition of particles (though it can be easily generalized to consider subtraction) with no other physical restriction. The corresponding Langevin equation for this bulk density field is derived where the i...

  4. Modeling dynamic functional connectivity using a wishart mixture model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) has recently become a popular way of tracking the temporal evolution of the brains functional integration. However, there does not seem to be a consensus on how to choose the complexity, i.e. number of brain states, and the time-scale of the dynamics, i.......e. the window length. In this work we use the Wishart Mixture Model (WMM) as a probabilistic model for dFC based on variational inference. The framework admits arbitrary window lengths and number of dynamic components and includes the static one-component model as a special case. We exploit that the WMM...... framework provides model selection by quantifying models generalization to new data. We use this to quantify the number of states within a prespecified window length. We further propose a heuristic procedure for choosing the window length based on contrasting for each window length the predictive...

  5. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident

  6. Thermal models of electric machines with dynamic workloads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pohlandt

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Electric powertrains are increasingly used in off-highway machines because of easy controllability and excellent overall efficiency. The main goals are increasing the energy efficiency of the machine and the optimization of the work process. The thermal behaviour of electric machines with dynamic workloads applied to is a key design factor for electric powertrains in off-highway machines. This article introduces a methodology to model the thermal behaviour of electric machines. Using a noncausal modelling approach, an electric powertrain is analysed for dynamic workloads. Cause-effect relationships and reasons for increasing temperature are considered as well as various cooling techniques. The validation of the overall simulation model of the powertrain with measured field data workloads provides convincing results to evaluate numerous applications of electric machines in off-highway machines.

  7. Internal lecture: The dawn of the Standard Model's revolution | 6 June | Main Auditorium

    CERN Multimedia

    2014-01-01

    "The dawn of the Standard Model's revolution", by Luigi di Lella and Alvaro de Rujula.   Alvaro de Rujula. 15:30 - 16:20: Lecture by Alvaro de Rujula (followed by 20 minutes of questions) Abstract In the few years around November 1974, particle physics changed very significantly and at a frantic pace. Practitioners began to get accustomed to the successful predictions of the Standard Model, which did not have many believers at that time. I shall recall the main experimental and theoretical advances, concerning in particular quarks as partons, the asymptotic freedom of QCD, charmonia and the first openly charmed particles. Career Alvaro de Rújula was at Harvard University during the Standard Model revolution. Before and after, amongst many other places, he worked at CERN.   16:40 - 17:00: Coffee break   Luigi di Lella. 17:00 - 17:50: Lecture by Luigi di Lella: Experiments at CERN in the decade 1964-1974 (followed by 20 minut...

  8. Hydrogeological flow in gypsum karst areas: some examples from northern Italy and main circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolomeo Vigna

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Messinian succession containing gypsum beds crops out in northern Italy, mainly in Piedmont and along the northern flank of the Apennine mountains in Emilia-Romagna. These gypsum bodies have been extensively quarried at the surface, in outcrops, and through underground quarries. In Emilia-Romagna these gypsum outcrops can be rather extensive, several km long and up to 1 km wide, while in Piedmont they are mostly covered by silty-marly deposits of Upper Messinian and Pliocene age and show only sparse and small outcrops. The underground quarrying of these evaporite bodies in Piedmont has allowed studying in detail their hydrogeology, and the ways in which water flows through these karst rocks. In contrast, in Emilia-Romagna the hydrogeology of these aquifers has been studied with traditional spring water monitoring and speleological methods. On the basis of the results it has been possible to define three conceptual models regarding the water circulation in these evaporites, similar to the models existing for carbonate aquifers. The models represent aquifers with decreasing vulnerability to pollution, from the more vulnerable system with dominant conduit drainage, characterizing most of the known gypsum aquifers, to those with interconnected conduit drainage and with dispersive circulation.

  9. Dynamic modeling of oil boom failure using computational fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, R. H.; Brown, H. M.; An, C. F.; Rowe, R. D.

    1997-01-01

    Oil retention boom failure mechanisms have been identified and studied using computational fluid dynamics (CFD), a powerful modeling tool combining fluid dynamics and mathematics with high speed computer technology. This study utilized a commercially available CFD package, 'Fluent', to simulate the oil-water flow around a barrier. 'Drainage failure', 'droplet entrainment' and 'critical accumulation' were modeled using this software. Flow characteristics were found to be different for different failure mechanisms. In the drainage failure process, the oil slick was compressed against the barrier until the slick was deep enough for the oil to leak under the barrier. During boom failure due to droplet entrainment, the oil-water interface of the oil slick was wavy and unstable. During boom failure due to critical accumulation, the oil remained a single mass and moved under the barrier readily. The most significant observation, however, was that flow patterns around barriers are modified by the presence of oil. Therefore, towing and wave-conformity tests of booms will not be meaningful unless such tests are conducted with oil present. 15 refs., 11 figs

  10. Empirical tests of pre-main-sequence stellar evolution models with eclipsing binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stassun, Keivan G.; Feiden, Gregory A.; Torres, Guillermo

    2014-06-01

    We examine the performance of standard pre-main-sequence (PMS) stellar evolution models against the accurately measured properties of a benchmark sample of 26 PMS stars in 13 eclipsing binary (EB) systems having masses 0.04-4.0 M⊙ and nominal ages ≈1-20 Myr. We provide a definitive compilation of all fundamental properties for the EBs, with a careful and consistent reassessment of observational uncertainties. We also provide a definitive compilation of the various PMS model sets, including physical ingredients and limits of applicability. No set of model isochrones is able to successfully reproduce all of the measured properties of all of the EBs. In the H-R diagram, the masses inferred for the individual stars by the models are accurate to better than 10% at ≳1 M⊙, but below 1 M⊙ they are discrepant by 50-100%. Adjusting the observed radii and temperatures using empirical relations for the effects of magnetic activity helps to resolve the discrepancies in a few cases, but fails as a general solution. We find evidence that the failure of the models to match the data is linked to the triples in the EB sample; at least half of the EBs possess tertiary companions. Excluding the triples, the models reproduce the stellar masses to better than ∼10% in the H-R diagram, down to 0.5 M⊙, below which the current sample is fully contaminated by tertiaries. We consider several mechanisms by which a tertiary might cause changes in the EB properties and thus corrupt the agreement with stellar model predictions. We show that the energies of the tertiary orbits are comparable to that needed to potentially explain the scatter in the EB properties through injection of heat, perhaps involving tidal interaction. It seems from the evidence at hand that this mechanism, however it operates in detail, has more influence on the surface properties of the stars than on their internal structure, as the lithium abundances are broadly in good agreement with model predictions. The

  11. Dynamical phase separation using a microfluidic device: experiments and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aymard, Benjamin; Vaes, Urbain; Radhakrishnan, Anand; Pradas, Marc; Gavriilidis, Asterios; Kalliadasis, Serafim; Complex Multiscale Systems Team

    2017-11-01

    We study the dynamical phase separation of a binary fluid by a microfluidic device both from the experimental and from the modeling points of view. The experimental device consists of a main channel (600 μm wide) leading into an array of 276 trapezoidal capillaries of 5 μm width arranged on both sides and separating the lateral channels from the main channel. Due to geometrical effects as well as wetting properties of the substrate, and under well chosen pressure boundary conditions, a multiphase flow introduced into the main channel gets separated at the capillaries. Understanding this dynamics via modeling and numerical simulation is a crucial step in designing future efficient micro-separators. We propose a diffuse-interface model, based on the classical Cahn-Hilliard-Navier-Stokes system, with a new nonlinear mobility and new wetting boundary conditions. We also propose a novel numerical method using a finite-element approach, together with an adaptive mesh refinement strategy. The complex geometry is captured using the same computer-aided design files as the ones adopted in the fabrication of the actual device. Numerical simulations reveal a very good qualitative agreement between model and experiments, demonstrating also a clear separation of phases.

  12. Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. T.

    1990-01-01

    The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

  13. LARGE SCALE DISTRIBUTED PARAMETER MODEL OF MAIN MAGNET SYSTEM AND FREQUENCY DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ZHANG,W.; MARNERIS, I.; SANDBERG, J.

    2007-06-25

    Large accelerator main magnet system consists of hundreds, even thousands, of dipole magnets. They are linked together under selected configurations to provide highly uniform dipole fields when powered. Distributed capacitance, insulation resistance, coil resistance, magnet inductance, and coupling inductance of upper and lower pancakes make each magnet a complex network. When all dipole magnets are chained together in a circle, they become a coupled pair of very high order complex ladder networks. In this study, a network of more than thousand inductive, capacitive or resistive elements are used to model an actual system. The circuit is a large-scale network. Its equivalent polynomial form has several hundred degrees. Analysis of this high order circuit and simulation of the response of any or all components is often computationally infeasible. We present methods to use frequency decomposition approach to effectively simulate and analyze magnet configuration and power supply topologies.

  14. Making Sense of Atmospheric Models and Fundamental Stellar Properties at the Bottom of the Main Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Sergio; Henry, Todd; Jao, W.-C.; Washington, Robert; Silverstein, Michele; Winters, J.; RECONS

    2018-01-01

    We present a detailed comparison of atmospheric model predictions and photometric observations for late M and L dwarfs. We discuss which wavelength regions are best for determining the fundamental properties of these cool stellar and substellar atmospheres and use this analysis to refine the HR diagram for the hydrogen burning limit first presented in 2014. We also add several new objects to the HR diagram and find little qualitative difference in the HR diagram's overall morphology when compared to our 2014 results. The L2 dwarf 2MASS 0523-1403 remains the smallest hydrogen burning star for which we calculated a radius, thus likely indicating the end of the stellar main sequence. This work is supported by the NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship program through grant AST-1400680.

  15. Direct modeling for computational fluid dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kun

    2015-06-01

    All fluid dynamic equations are valid under their modeling scales, such as the particle mean free path and mean collision time scale of the Boltzmann equation and the hydrodynamic scale of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. The current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) focuses on the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), and its aim is to get the accurate solution of these governing equations. Under such a CFD practice, it is hard to develop a unified scheme that covers flow physics from kinetic to hydrodynamic scales continuously because there is no such governing equation which could make a smooth transition from the Boltzmann to the NS modeling. The study of fluid dynamics needs to go beyond the traditional numerical partial differential equations. The emerging engineering applications, such as air-vehicle design for near-space flight and flow and heat transfer in micro-devices, do require further expansion of the concept of gas dynamics to a larger domain of physical reality, rather than the traditional distinguishable governing equations. At the current stage, the non-equilibrium flow physics has not yet been well explored or clearly understood due to the lack of appropriate tools. Unfortunately, under the current numerical PDE approach, it is hard to develop such a meaningful tool due to the absence of valid PDEs. In order to construct multiscale and multiphysics simulation methods similar to the modeling process of constructing the Boltzmann or the NS governing equations, the development of a numerical algorithm should be based on the first principle of physical modeling. In this paper, instead of following the traditional numerical PDE path, we introduce direct modeling as a principle for CFD algorithm development. Since all computations are conducted in a discretized space with limited cell resolution, the flow physics to be modeled has to be done in the mesh size and time step scales. Here, the CFD is more or less a direct

  16. Dynamic Modeling of ThermoFluid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Munch

    2003-01-01

    The objective of the present study has been to developed dynamic models for two-phase flow in pipes (evaporation and condensation). Special attention has been given to modeling evaporators for refrigeration plant particular dry-expansion evaporators. Models of different complexity have been...... formulated. The different models deviate with respect to the detail¿s included and calculation time in connection with simulation. The models have been implemented in a new library named ThermoTwoPhase to the programming language Modelica. A test rig has been built with an evaporator instrumented in a way...... that the models can be validated against experimental data. The models developed van be used in connection with intelligent control of refrigerant flow to dry-expansion evaporators....

  17. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  18. A metapopulation model with Markovian landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McVinish, R; Pollett, P K; Chan, Y S

    2016-12-01

    We study a variant of Hanski's incidence function model that allows habitat patch characteristics to vary over time following a Markov process. The widely studied case where patches are classified as either suitable or unsuitable is included as a special case. For large metapopulations, we determine a recursion for the probability that a given habitat patch is occupied. This recursion enables us to clarify the role of landscape dynamics in the survival of a metapopulation. In particular, we show that landscape dynamics affects the persistence and equilibrium level of the metapopulation primarily through its effect on the distribution of a local population's life span. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

    2017-06-01

    Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

  20. Dynamic Circuit Model for Spintronic Devices

    KAUST Repository

    Alawein, Meshal

    2017-01-09

    In this work we propose a finite-difference scheme based circuit model of a general spintronic device and benchmark it with other models proposed for spintronic switching devices. Our model is based on the four-component spin circuit theory and utilizes the widely used coupled stochastic magnetization dynamics/spin transport framework. In addition to the steady-state analysis, this work offers a transient analysis of carrier transport. By discretizing the temporal and spatial derivatives to generate a linear system of equations, we derive new and simple finite-difference conductance matrices that can, to the first order, capture both static and dynamic behaviors of a spintronic device. We also discuss an extension of the spin modified nodal analysis (SMNA) for time-dependent situations based on the proposed scheme.

  1. Friction modelling of preloaded tube contact dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.A.; Rogers, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    Many loosely supported components are subjected to flow-induced vibration leading to localized wear. Life prediction depends on robust and accurate modelling of the nonlinear dynamics as the components interact with their supports. The output of such analysis is the component dynamic response and impact forces, including friction forces during stick-slip motions. Such results are used to determine the normal work rates, which are utilized to predict fretting wear damage. Accurate estimates of these parameters are essential. This paper presents simulations of a loosely supported fuel-channel tube subject to turbulence excitation. The effects of tube/support clearance and preload are investigated. Several friction models, including velocity-limited, spring-damper and force-balance are utilized. A comparison of these models is carried out to investigate their accuracy. The results show good agreement with experimental work rates when a simple iterative procedure to update the friction forces is used

  2. Friction modelling of preloaded tube contact dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.A.; Rogers, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    Many loosely supported components are subjected to flow-induced vibration leading to localized wear. Life prediction depends on robust and accurate modelling of the nonlinear dynamics as the components interact with their supports. The output of such analysis is the component dynamic response and impact forces, including friction forces during stick-slip motions. Such results are used to determine the normal work rates, which are utilized to predict fretting wear damage. Accurate estimates of these parameters are essential. This paper presents simulations of a loosely supported fuel-channel tube subject to turbulence excitation. The effects of tube/support clearance and preload are investigated. Several friction models, including velocity-limited, spring-damper, and force-balance are utilized. A comparison of these models is carried out to investigate their accuracy. The results show good agreement with experimental work rates when a simple iterative procedure to update the friction forces is used. (authors)

  3. Dynamic Intellectual Capital Model in a Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Shatrevich

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to indicate the relations between company’s value added (VA and intangible assets. Authors declare that Intellectual capital (IC is one of the most relevant intangibles for a company, and the concept with measurement, and the relation with value creation is necessary for modern markets. Since relationship between IC elements and VA are complicated, this paper is aimed to create a usable dynamic model for building company’s value added through intellectual capital. The model is incorporating that outputs from IC elements are not homogeneously received and made some contributions to dynamic nature of IC relation and VA. Variables that will help companies to evaluate contribution of each element of IC are added to the model. This paper emphasizes the importance of a company’s IC and the positive interaction between them in generating profits for company.

  4. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  5. Combined stellar structure and atmosphere models for massive stars. II. Spectral evolution on the main sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaerer, D.; de Koter, A.; Schmutz, W.; Maeder, A.

    1996-08-01

    In Schaerer et al. (1995, Paper I) we have presented the first ``combined stellar structure and atmosphere models'' (CoStar) for massive stars, which consistently treat the entire mass loosing star from the center out to the outer region of the stellar wind. The models use up-to-date input physics and state-of-the-art techniques to model both the stellar interior and the spherically expanding non-LTE atmosphere. The atmosphere models include line blanketing for all elements from hydrogen to zinc. The present publication covers the spectral evolution corresponding to the main sequence interior evolution discussed in Paper I. The CoStar results presented in this paper comprise: (a) flux distributions, from the EUV to the far IR, and the ionizing fluxes in the hydrogen and helium continua, (b) absolute optical and infrared UBVRIJHKLMN photometric magnitudes and UV colors, (c) detailed line blanketed UV spectra, and (d) non-LTE hydrogen and helium line spectra in the optical and IR, including theoretical K band spectra. These results may, e.g., be used for population synthesis models intended to study the massive star content in young starforming regions. We compare our results with other predictions from LTE and non-LTE plane parallel models and point out the improvements and the importance of using adequate atmosphere models including stellar winds for massive stars. Particular emphasis is given to comparisons of the UV spectral evolution with observations, including continuum indices and several metal line signatures of P-Cygni lines and broad absorption features. Good agreement is found for most UV features. In particular, we are able to reproduce the strong observed Fe III 1920A feature in late O and early B giants and supergiants. This feature is found to depend sensitively on temperature and may be used to derive effective temperatures for these stars. We also derive a simple formula to determine mass loss rates from the equivalent width of hydrogen

  6. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-01-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

  7. Dynamical model for retrieval of tram schedule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi

    2007-04-01

    We present the dynamical model for retrieval of a tram schedule when trams arrive at stops slower or faster than the schedule. Trams speed up or stop shorter to retrieve the delay. The dynamics of the trams is expressed in terms of the nonlinear maps. We study the dynamical behavior of trams when they control the speed and stopping time to retrieve the schedule. The arrival times of trams exhibit the complex behavior with varying trips. The trams show the periodic and irregular (chaotic) motions even if there are no noises. The tram chaos is controlled by varying both stopping time and degree of speedup. The tram schedule is connected with the complex motions of trams. The region map (phase diagram) is shown to control the complex motions of trams.

  8. A computational model for dynamic vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moezzi, Saied; Weymouth, Terry E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes a novel computational model for dynamic vision which promises to be both powerful and robust. Furthermore the paradigm is ideal for an active vision system where camera vergence changes dynamically. Its basis is the retinotopically indexed object-centered encoding of the early visual information. Specifically, the relative distances of objects to a set of referents is encoded in image registered maps. To illustrate the efficacy of the method, it is applied to the problem of dynamic stereo vision. Integration of depth information over multiple frames obtained by a moving robot generally requires precise information about the relative camera position from frame to frame. Usually, this information can only be approximated. The method facilitates the integration of depth information without direct use or knowledge of camera motion.

  9. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  10. An introduction to modeling neuronal dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Börgers, Christoph

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended as a text for a one-semester course on Mathematical and Computational Neuroscience for upper-level undergraduate and beginning graduate students of mathematics, the natural sciences, engineering, or computer science. An undergraduate introduction to differential equations is more than enough mathematical background. Only a slim, high school-level background in physics is assumed, and none in biology. Topics include models of individual nerve cells and their dynamics, models of networks of neurons coupled by synapses and gap junctions, origins and functions of population rhythms in neuronal networks, and models of synaptic plasticity. An extensive online collection of Matlab programs generating the figures accompanies the book. .

  11. Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Raol, JR; Singh, J

    2004-01-01

    Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor

  12. Dynamical Field Model of Hand Preference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franceschetti, Donald R.; Cantalupo, Claudio

    2000-11-01

    Dynamical field models of information processing in the nervous system are being developed by a number of groups of psychologists and physicists working together to explain The details of behaviors exhibited by a number of animal species. Here we adapt such a model to the expression of hand preference in a small primate, the bushbaby (Otolemur garnetti) . The model provides a theoretical foundation for the interpretation of an experiment currently underway in which a several of these animals are forced to extend either right or left hand to retrieve a food item from a rotating turntable.

  13. Refining the model of barrier island formation along a paraglacial coast in the Gulf of Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Christopher J.; FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Carruthers, Emily A.; Stone, Byron D.; Barnhardt, Walter A.; Gontz, Allen M.

    2012-01-01

    , driven by the import of sediment into the backbarrier environment through tidal inlets, as well as minor sediment contribution from local rivers, led to a vast reduction in the bay tidal prism. This study demonstrates that, prior to about 3 ka, Plum Island and its associated marshes, tidal flats, and inlets were in a paraglacial environment; that is, their main source of sediment was derived from the erosion and reworking of glaciogenic deposits. Since that time, Plum Island has been in a state of dynamic equilibrium with its non-glacial sediment sources and therefore can be largely considered to be in a stable, “post-paraglacial” state. This study is furthermore the first in the Gulf of Maine to show that spit accretion and inlet processes were the dominant mechanisms in barrier-island formation and thus serves as a foundation for future investigations of barrier development in response to backbarrier infilling.

  14. Dynamic Model of an Ammonia Synthesis Reactor Based on Open Information

    OpenAIRE

    Jinasena, Asanthi; Lie, Bernt; Glemmestad, Bjørn

    2016-01-01

    Ammonia is a widely used chemical, hence the ammonia manufacturing process has become a standard case study in the scientific community. In the field of mathematical modeling of the dynamics of ammonia synthesis reactors, there is a lack of complete and well documented models. Therefore, the main aim of this work is to develop a complete and well documented mathematical model for observing the dynamic behavior of an industrial ammonia synthesis reactor system. The model is complete enough to ...

  15. Acoustic Measurements of a Large Civil Transport Main Landing Gear Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravetta, Patricio A.; Khorrami, Mehdi R.; Burdisso, Ricardo A.; Wisda, David M.

    2016-01-01

    Microphone phased array acoustic measurements of a 26 percent-scale, Boeing 777-200 main landing gear model with and without noise reduction fairings installed were obtained in the anechoic configuration of the Virginia Tech Stability Tunnel. Data were acquired at Mach numbers of 0.12, 0.15, and 0.17 with the latter speed used as the nominal test condition. The fully and partially dressed gear with the truck angle set at 13 degrees toe-up landing configuration were the two most extensively tested configurations, serving as the baselines for comparison purposes. Acoustic measurements were also acquired for the same two baseline configurations with the truck angle set at 0 degrees. In addition, a previously tested noise reducing, toboggan-shaped fairing was re-evaluated extensively to address some of the lingering questions regarding the extent of acoustic benefit achievable with this device. The integrated spectra generated from the acoustic source maps reconfirm, in general terms, the previously reported noise reduction performance of the toboggan fairing as installed on an isolated gear. With the recent improvements to the Virginia Tech tunnel acoustic quality and microphone array capabilities, the present measurements provide an additional, higher quality database to the acoustic information available for this gear model.

  16. Termination of pregnancy for fetal abnormalities: main arguments and a decision-tree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kose, Semir; Altunyurt, Sabahattin; Yıldırım, Nuri; Keskinoğlu, Pembe; Çankaya, Tufan; Bora, Elçin; Erçal, Derya; Özer, Erdener

    2015-11-01

    By looking through our ethical committee cases, we demonstrate the main arguments we use for making a judgment in face of fetal abnormalities. Our decision making model is a simplified algorithm of the arguments and concepts we use in scientific-ethic discussion. A retrospective analysis was conducted from single, tertiary referral center of patients evaluated for fetal abnormalities from 2004 to 2014. We hypothesized that all our judgments would fit into a decision-tree model. 553 fetal abnormality cases were discussed, 348 (63%) were given termination of pregnancy (TOP) proposal. When detected genetic disorders (n:100) and with mental retardation risk (n:93) ended up with TOP proposal. For incompatibility with life cases (n:111) and the multimorbidity cases (n:44) the committee suggest TOP, regardless of gestational age. The highest family approval ratios were in chromosomal abnormalities/genetic disorders group (93%), and the lowest figures were in mental retardation risk group (80%). Continuously changing literature on prenatal and postnatal therapy options and the long term outcome of various fetal abnormalities influence committee decisions. Theoretical high success rates and inconsistent data on long term prognosis of some anomaly groups resulted in heterogenous decisions and various approval ratios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Evolution Models of Helium White Dwarf–Main-sequence Star Merger Remnants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xianfei; Bi, Shaolan; Hall, Philip D.; Jeffery, C. Simon

    2017-01-01

    It is predicted that orbital decay by gravitational-wave radiation and tidal interaction will cause some close binary stars to merge within a Hubble time. The merger of a helium-core white dwarf with a main-sequence (MS) star can produce a red giant branch star that has a low-mass hydrogen envelope when helium is ignited and thus become a hot subdwarf. Because detailed calculations have not been made, we compute post-merger models with a stellar evolution code. We find the evolutionary paths available to merger remnants and find the pre-merger conditions that lead to the formation of hot subdwarfs. We find that some such mergers result in the formation of stars with intermediate helium-rich surfaces. These stars later develop helium-poor surfaces owing to diffusion. Combining our results with a model population and comparing to observed stars, we find that some observed intermediate helium-rich hot subdwarfs can be explained as the remnants of the mergers of helium-core white dwarfs with low-mass MS stars.

  18. Evolution Models of Helium White Dwarf–Main-sequence Star Merger Remnants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xianfei; Bi, Shaolan [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 (China); Hall, Philip D.; Jeffery, C. Simon, E-mail: zxf@bnu.edu.cn [Armagh Observatory, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-01

    It is predicted that orbital decay by gravitational-wave radiation and tidal interaction will cause some close binary stars to merge within a Hubble time. The merger of a helium-core white dwarf with a main-sequence (MS) star can produce a red giant branch star that has a low-mass hydrogen envelope when helium is ignited and thus become a hot subdwarf. Because detailed calculations have not been made, we compute post-merger models with a stellar evolution code. We find the evolutionary paths available to merger remnants and find the pre-merger conditions that lead to the formation of hot subdwarfs. We find that some such mergers result in the formation of stars with intermediate helium-rich surfaces. These stars later develop helium-poor surfaces owing to diffusion. Combining our results with a model population and comparing to observed stars, we find that some observed intermediate helium-rich hot subdwarfs can be explained as the remnants of the mergers of helium-core white dwarfs with low-mass MS stars.

  19. IMPROVEMENT OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATION OF TRAIN DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Ursulyak

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Using scientific publications the paper analyzes the mathematical models developed in Ukraine, CIS countries and abroad for theoretical studies of train dynamics and also shows the urgency of their further improvement. Methodology. Information base of the research was official full-text and abstract databases, scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists, professional periodicals, materials of scientific and practical conferences, methodological materials of ministries and departments. Analysis of publications on existing mathematical models used to solve a wide range of problems associated with the train dynamics study shows the expediency of their application. Findings. The results of these studies were used in: 1 design of new types of draft gears and air distributors; 2 development of methods for controlling the movement of conventional and connected trains; 3 creation of appropriate process flow diagrams; 4 development of energy-saving methods of train driving; 5 revision of the Construction Codes and Regulations (SNiP ΙΙ-39.76; 6 when selecting the parameters of the autonomous automatic control system, created in DNURT, for an auxiliary locomotive that is part of a connected train; 7 when creating computer simulators for the training of locomotive drivers; 8 assessment of the vehicle dynamic indices characterizing traffic safety. Scientists around the world conduct numerical experiments related to estimation of train dynamics using mathematical models that need to be constantly improved. Originality. The authors presented the main theoretical postulates that allowed them to develop the existing mathematical models for solving problems related to the train dynamics. The analysis of scientific articles published in Ukraine, CIS countries and abroad allows us to determine the most relevant areas of application of mathematical models. Practicalvalue. The practical value of the results obtained lies in the scientific validity

  20. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  1. EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN MODELS OF INTEGRATED MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS WHO HAVE THE ROLE TO INFLUENCE CONSUMER BUYING BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OANCEA OLIMPIA ELENA MIHAELA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The models of integrated marketing communication have become today a very useful tool, that can provide companies a sustainable competitive advantage. The integrated marketing communication identifies with today's market dynamics and learn organizations how easy it can be to prosper in an environment where there are produced changes in an alarming way. In an economy with a strong competition character, organizations must capitalize integrated marketing communication in a way more efficiently, for to ensure the creation and maintenance of longterm relationships with current and potential customers. A product or a brand exist in the consumer's mind there not only because of experience with it, but also due to the medium and long term effects on that a message built on base the wishes, expectations or consumer preferences is transmitted simultaneously through as many tools of communication. Building and managing relationships with consumers can have a direct and positive effect on efficiency of the results of communication of a company. Changes in the business environment, along with technological innovation, increasing consumer sophistication and changes in marketing communications practices, have led organizations to seek to improve relationships with their consumers, and to strive to deliver consistent messages to all stakeholders - consumers, employees, company partners, the state, local governments, suppliers - across a wide range of integrated marketing communications channels.Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify and analyze the main models of integrated marketing communication that can influence the consumer behaviour.

  2. Towards dynamic genome-scale models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, David; Heiner, Monika; Jayaweera, Yasoda; Rohr, Christian

    2017-10-13

    The analysis of the dynamic behaviour of genome-scale models of metabolism (GEMs) currently presents considerable challenges because of the difficulties of simulating such large and complex networks. Bacterial GEMs can comprise about 5000 reactions and metabolites, and encode a huge variety of growth conditions; such models cannot be used without sophisticated tool support. This article is intended to aid modellers, both specialist and non-specialist in computerized methods, to identify and apply a suitable combination of tools for the dynamic behaviour analysis of large-scale metabolic designs. We describe a methodology and related workflow based on publicly available tools to profile and analyse whole-genome-scale biochemical models. We use an efficient approximative stochastic simulation method to overcome problems associated with the dynamic simulation of GEMs. In addition, we apply simulative model checking using temporal logic property libraries, clustering and data analysis, over time series of reaction rates and metabolite concentrations. We extend this to consider the evolution of reaction-oriented properties of subnets over time, including dead subnets and functional subsystems. This enables the generation of abstract views of the behaviour of these models, which can be large-up to whole genome in size-and therefore impractical to analyse informally by eye. We demonstrate our methodology by applying it to a reduced model of the whole-genome metabolism of Escherichia coli K-12 under different growth conditions. The overall context of our work is in the area of model-based design methods for metabolic engineering and synthetic biology. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  3. GMLC Extreme Event Modeling -- Slow-Dynamics Models for Renewable Energy Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korkali, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Min, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-03-30

    The need for slow dynamics models of renewable resources in cascade modeling essentially arises from the challenges associated with the increased use of solar and wind electric power. Indeed, the main challenge is that the power produced by wind and sunlight is not consistent; thus, renewable energy resources tend to have variable output power on many different timescales, including the timescales that a cascade unfolds.

  4. Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an important platform to study past, present and future vegetation patterns together with associated biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks (e.g. Sitch et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2001). However, very few attempts have been made to simulate peatlands using DGVMs (Kleinen et al. 2012, Tang et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a). In the present study, we have improved the peatland dynamics in the state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) in order to understand the long-term evolution of northern peatland ecosystems and to assess the effect of changing climate on peatland carbon balance. We combined a dynamic multi-layer approach (Frolking et al. 2010, Hilbert et al. 2000) with soil freezing-thawing functionality (Ekici et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a) in LPJ-GUESS. The new model is named LPJ-GUESS Peatland (LPJ-GUESS-P) (Chaudhary et al. in prep). The model was calibrated and tested at the sub-arctic mire in Stordalen, Sweden, and the model was able to capture the reported long-term vegetation dynamics and peat accumulation patterns in the mire (Kokfelt et al. 2010). For evaluation, the model was run at 13 grid points across a north to south transect in Europe. The modelled peat accumulation values were found to be consistent with the published data for each grid point (Loisel et al. 2014). Finally, a series of additional experiments were carried out to investigate the vulnerability of high-latitude peatlands to climate change. We find that the Stordalen mire will sequester more carbon in the future due to milder and wetter climate conditions, longer growing seasons, and the carbon fertilization effect. References: - Chaudhary et al. (in prep.). Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model - Ekici A, et al. 2015. Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes. The Cryosphere 9: 1343

  5. Modeling the dynamic characteristics of pneumatic muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, D B; Repperger, D W; Phillips, C A; Bandry, G

    2003-03-01

    A pneumatic muscle (PM) system was studied to determine whether a three-element model could describe its dynamics. As far as the authors are aware, this model has not been used to describe the dynamics of PM. A new phenomenological model consists of a contractile (force-generating) element, spring element, and damping element in parallel. The PM system was investigated using an apparatus that allowed precise and accurate actuation pressure (P) control by a linear servo-valve. Length change of the PM was measured by a linear potentiometer. Spring and damping element functions of P were determined by a static perturbation method at several constant P values. These results indicate that at constant P, PM behaves as a spring and damper in parallel. The contractile element function of P was determined by the response to a step input in P, using values of spring and damping elements from the perturbation study. The study showed that the resulting coefficient functions of the three-element model describe the dynamic response to the step input of P accurately, indicating that the static perturbation results can be applied to the dynamic case. This model is further validated by accurately predicting the contraction response to a triangular P waveform. All three elements have pressure-dependent coefficients for pressure P in the range 207 < or = P < or = 621 kPa (30 < or = P < or = 90 psi). Studies with a step decrease in P (relaxation of the PM) indicate that the damping element coefficient is smaller during relaxation than contraction.

  6. Bioinactivation: Software for modelling dynamic microbial inactivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garre, Alberto; Fernández, Pablo S; Lindqvist, Roland; Egea, Jose A

    2017-03-01

    This contribution presents the bioinactivation software, which implements functions for the modelling of isothermal and non-isothermal microbial inactivation. This software offers features such as user-friendliness, modelling of dynamic conditions, possibility to choose the fitting algorithm and generation of prediction intervals. The software is offered in two different formats: Bioinactivation core and Bioinactivation SE. Bioinactivation core is a package for the R programming language, which includes features for the generation of predictions and for the fitting of models to inactivation experiments using non-linear regression or a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The calculations are based on inactivation models common in academia and industry (Bigelow, Peleg, Mafart and Geeraerd). Bioinactivation SE supplies a user-friendly interface to selected functions of Bioinactivation core, namely the model fitting of non-isothermal experiments and the generation of prediction intervals. The capabilities of bioinactivation are presented in this paper through a case study, modelling the non-isothermal inactivation of Bacillus sporothermodurans. This study has provided a full characterization of the response of the bacteria to dynamic temperature conditions, including confidence intervals for the model parameters and a prediction interval of the survivor curve. We conclude that the MCMC algorithm produces a better characterization of the biological uncertainty and variability than non-linear regression. The bioinactivation software can be relevant to the food and pharmaceutical industry, as well as to regulatory agencies, as part of a (quantitative) microbial risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Dynamic alignment models for neural coding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sepp Kollmorgen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there have been remarkable advances in modeling the relationships between the sensory environment, neuronal responses, and behavior. However, most models cannot encompass variable stimulus-response relationships such as varying response latencies and state or context dependence of the neural code. Here, we consider response modeling as a dynamic alignment problem and model stimulus and response jointly by a mixed pair hidden Markov model (MPH. In MPHs, multiple stimulus-response relationships (e.g., receptive fields are represented by different states or groups of states in a Markov chain. Each stimulus-response relationship features temporal flexibility, allowing modeling of variable response latencies, including noisy ones. We derive algorithms for learning of MPH parameters and for inference of spike response probabilities. We show that some linear-nonlinear Poisson cascade (LNP models are a special case of MPHs. We demonstrate the efficiency and usefulness of MPHs in simulations of both jittered and switching spike responses to white noise and natural stimuli. Furthermore, we apply MPHs to extracellular single and multi-unit data recorded in cortical brain areas of singing birds to showcase a novel method for estimating response lag distributions. MPHs allow simultaneous estimation of receptive fields, latency statistics, and hidden state dynamics and so can help to uncover complex stimulus response relationships that are subject to variable timing and involve diverse neural codes.

  8. Dynamic alignment models for neural coding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollmorgen, Sepp; Hahnloser, Richard H R

    2014-03-01

    Recently, there have been remarkable advances in modeling the relationships between the sensory environment, neuronal responses, and behavior. However, most models cannot encompass variable stimulus-response relationships such as varying response latencies and state or context dependence of the neural code. Here, we consider response modeling as a dynamic alignment problem and model stimulus and response jointly by a mixed pair hidden Markov model (MPH). In MPHs, multiple stimulus-response relationships (e.g., receptive fields) are represented by different states or groups of states in a Markov chain. Each stimulus-response relationship features temporal flexibility, allowing modeling of variable response latencies, including noisy ones. We derive algorithms for learning of MPH parameters and for inference of spike response probabilities. We show that some linear-nonlinear Poisson cascade (LNP) models are a special case of MPHs. We demonstrate the efficiency and usefulness of MPHs in simulations of both jittered and switching spike responses to white noise and natural stimuli. Furthermore, we apply MPHs to extracellular single and multi-unit data recorded in cortical brain areas of singing birds to showcase a novel method for estimating response lag distributions. MPHs allow simultaneous estimation of receptive fields, latency statistics, and hidden state dynamics and so can help to uncover complex stimulus response relationships that are subject to variable timing and involve diverse neural codes.

  9. THE QUADRUPLE PRE-MAIN-SEQUENCE SYSTEM LkCa 3: IMPLICATIONS FOR STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Guillermo; Latham, David W.; Ruíz-Rodríguez, Dary; Prato, L.; Wasserman, Lawrence H.; Badenas, Mariona; Schaefer, G. H.; Mathieu, Robert D.

    2013-01-01

    We report the discovery that the pre-main-sequence (PMS) object LkCa 3 in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region is a hierarchical quadruple system of M stars. It was previously known to be a close (∼0.''5) visual pair, with one component being a moderately eccentric 12.94 day single-lined spectroscopic binary. A re-analysis of archival optical spectra complemented by new near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy shows both visual components to be double lined; the second one has a period of 4.06 days and a circular orbit. In addition to the orbital elements, we determine optical and NIR flux ratios, effective temperatures, and projected rotational velocities for all four stars. Using existing photometric monitoring observations of the system that had previously revealed the rotational period of the primary in the longer-period binary, we also detect the rotational signal of the primary in the 4.06 day binary, which is synchronized with the orbital motion. With only the assumption of coevality, a comparison of all of these constraints with current stellar evolution models from the Dartmouth series points to an age of 1.4 Myr and a distance of 133 pc, consistent with previous estimates for the region and suggesting that the system is on the near side of the Taurus complex. Similar comparisons of the properties of LkCa 3 and the well-known quadruple PMS system GG Tau with the widely used models from the Lyon series for a mixing length parameter of α ML = 1.0 strongly favor the Dartmouth models

  10. A Typed Model for Dynamic Authorizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Ghilezan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Security requirements in distributed software systems are inherently dynamic. In the case of authorization policies, resources are meant to be accessed only by authorized parties, but the authorization to access a resource may be dynamically granted/yielded. We describe ongoing work on a model for specifying communication and dynamic authorization handling. We build upon the pi-calculus so as to enrich communication-based systems with authorization specification and delegation; here authorizations regard channel usage and delegation refers to the act of yielding an authorization to another party. Our model includes: (i a novel scoping construct for authorization, which allows to specify authorization boundaries, and (ii communication primitives for authorizations, which allow to pass around authorizations to act on a given channel. An authorization error may consist in, e.g., performing an action along a name which is not under an appropriate authorization scope. We introduce a typing discipline that ensures that processes never reduce to authorization errors, even when authorizations are dynamically delegated.

  11. Dynamical Causal Modeling from a Quantum Dynamical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demiralp, Emre; Demiralp, Metin

    2010-09-01

    Recent research suggests that any set of first order linear vector ODEs can be converted to a set of specific vector ODEs adhering to what we have called "Quantum Harmonical Form (QHF)". QHF has been developed using a virtual quantum multi harmonic oscillator system where mass and force constants are considered to be time variant and the Hamiltonian is defined as a conic structure over positions and momenta to conserve the Hermiticity. As described in previous works, the conversion to QHF requires the matrix coefficient of the first set of ODEs to be a normal matrix. In this paper, this limitation is circumvented using a space extension approach expanding the potential applicability of this method. Overall, conversion to QHF allows the investigation of a set of ODEs using mathematical tools available to the investigation of the physical concepts underlying quantum harmonic oscillators. The utility of QHF in the context of dynamical systems and dynamical causal modeling in behavioral and cognitive neuroscience is briefly discussed.

  12. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  13. Modeling plasmaspheric dynamics with SAMI3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huba, J. D.; Krall, J.; Wu, T.

    2013-12-01

    The NRL SAMI3 ionosphere/plasmasphere code is used to study plasmaspheric dynamics under both quiet and stormtime conditions. The SAMI3 ionosphere code includes 7 ion species (H+, He+, O+ ,N+, O2+, N2+, NO+), each treated as a separate fluid, with temperature equations being solved for H+, He+, O+ and e. Winds in SAMI3 are provided by HWM07 or HWM93 and the wind-driven ionospheric dynamo potential is computed self-consistently, based on current conservation. For this study SAMI3 is driven by the Weimer empirical model as well as a modified Volland-Stern potential at high latitudes. A time-varying high-latitude potential in combination with losses imposed for `open' field lines (L > 7) produces a dynamic plasmapause. Modeling results will be compared with observational data (e.g., plume formation, refilling, TEC). Research supported by NRL Base Funds and NASA.

  14. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  15. The dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Tokar, Robert L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) is a 3-year effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to provide global, retrospective, or real-time specification of the natural and potential nuclear radiation environments. The DREAM model uses Kalman filtering techniques that combine the strengths of new physical models of the radiation belts with electron observations from long-term satellite systems such as GPS and geosynchronous systems. DREAM includes a physics model for the production and long-term evolution of artificial radiation belts from high altitude nuclear explosions. DREAM has been validated against satellites in arbitrary orbits and consistently produces more accurate results than existing models. Tools for user-specific applications and graphical displays are in beta testing and a real-time version of DREAM has been in continuous operation since November 2009.

  16. Dynamic energy-demand models. A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Feng

    2000-01-01

    This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. 21 refs

  17. Dynamical Model for Indoor Radon Concentration Monitoring

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Jílek, K.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 6 (2009), s. 718-729 ISSN 1180-4009. [TIES 2007. Annual Meeting of the International Environmental Society /18./. Mikulov, 16.08.2007-20.08.2007] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : non-parametric regression * dynamic modeling * time-varying coefficients Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009

  18. Simple Models for the Dynamic Modeling of Rotating Tires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.C. Delamotte

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Large Finite Element (FE models of tires are currently used to predict low frequency behavior and to obtain dynamic model coefficients used in multi-body models for riding and comfort. However, to predict higher frequency behavior, which may explain irregular wear, critical rotating speeds and noise radiation, FE models are not practical. Detailed FE models are not adequate for optimization and uncertainty predictions either, as in such applications the dynamic solution must be computed a number of times. Therefore, there is a need for simpler models that can capture the physics of the tire and be used to compute the dynamic response with a low computational cost. In this paper, the spectral (or continuous element approach is used to derive such a model. A circular beam spectral element that takes into account the string effect is derived, and a method to simulate the response to a rotating force is implemented in the frequency domain. The behavior of a circular ring under different internal pressures is investigated using modal and frequency/wavenumber representations. Experimental results obtained with a real untreaded truck tire are presented and qualitatively compared with the simple model predictions with good agreement. No attempt is made to obtain equivalent parameters for the simple model from the real tire results. On the other hand, the simple model fails to represent the correct variation of the quotient of the natural frequency by the number of circumferential wavelengths with the mode count. Nevertheless, some important features of the real tire dynamic behavior, such as the generation of standing waves and part of the frequency/wavenumber behavior, can be investigated using the proposed simplified model.

  19. REVIEW One-Dimensional Dynamical Modeling of Earthquakes: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeen-Hwa Wang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies of the power-law relations of seismicity and earthquake source parameters based on the one-dimensional (1-D Burridge-Knopoff¡¦s (BK dynamical lattice model, especially those studies conducted by Taiwan¡¦s scientists, are reviewed in this article. In general, velocity- and/or state-dependent friction is considered to control faulting. A uniform distribution of breaking strengths (i.e., the static friction strength is taken into account in some studies, and inhomogeneous distributions in others. The scaling relations in these studies include: Omori¡¦s law, the magnitude-frequency or energy-frequency relation, the relation between source duration time and seismic moment, the relation between rupture length and seismic moment, the frequency-length relation, and the source power spectra. The main parameters of the one-dimensional (1-D Burridge-Knopoff¡¦s (BK dynamical lattice model include: the decreasing rate (r of dynamic friction strength with sliding velocity; the type and degree of heterogeneous distribution of the breaking strengths, the stiffness ratio (i.e., the ratio between the stiffness of the coil spring connecting two mass elements and that of the leaf spring linking a mass element and the moving plate; the frictional drop ratio of the minimum dynamic friction strength to the breaking strength; and the maximum breaking strength. For some authors, the distribution of the breaking strengths was considered to be a fractal function. Hence, the fractal dimension of such a distribution is also a significant parameter. Comparison between observed scaling laws and simulation results shows that the 1-D BK dynamical lattice model acceptably approaches fault dynamics.

  20. Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Røge, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted...

  1. On The Sfr-M* Main Sequence Archetypal Star-Formation History And Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciesla, Laure; Elbaz, David; Fensch, Jeremy

    2017-06-01

    From the evolution of the main sequence we can build the star formation history (SFH) of MS galaxies, assuming that they follow this relation all their life. We show that this SFH is not only a function of cosmic time but also involve the seed mass of the galaxy. We discuss the implications of this MS SFH on the stellar mass growth, and the entry in the passive region of the UVJ diagram, while the galaxy is still forming stars. We test the ability of different analytical SFH forms found in the literature to probe the SFR of all type of galaxies. Using a sample of GOODS-South galaxies, we show that these SFHs artificially enhance or create a gradient of age, parallel to the MS. A simple model of a MS galaxy, such as those expected from compaction or variation in gas accretion, undergoing some fluctuations provide does not predict such a gradient, that we show is due to SFH assumptions. We propose an improved analytical form, taking into account a flexibility in the recent SFH that we calibrate as a diagnostic to identify rapidly quenched galaxies from large photometric survey.

  2. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  3. A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Křivan, Vlastimil; Lewis, Mark; Bentz, Barbara J; Bewick, Sharon; Lenhart, Suzanne M; Liebhold, Andrew

    2016-10-21

    Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees are highly nonlinear, due to complex aggregation behaviors exhibited by beetles attacking trees. Models have a role to play in helping unravel the effects of variable tree resistance and beetle aggregation on bark beetle outbreaks. In this article we develop a new mathematical model for bark beetle outbreaks using an analogy with epidemiological models. Because the model operates on several distinct time scales, singular perturbation methods are used to simplify the model. The result is a dynamical system that tracks populations of uninfested and infested trees. A limiting case of the model is a discontinuous function of state variables, leading to solutions in the Filippov sense. The model assumes an extensive seed-bank so that tree recruitment is possible even if trees go extinct. Two scenarios are considered for immigration of new beetles. The first is a single tree stand with beetles immigrating from outside while the second considers two forest stands with beetle dispersal between them. For the seed-bank driven recruitment rate, when beetle immigration is low, the forest stand recovers to a beetle-free state. At high beetle immigration rates beetle populations approach an endemic equilibrium state. At intermediate immigration rates, the model predicts bistability as the forest can be in either of the two equilibrium states: a healthy forest, or a forest with an endemic beetle population. The model bistability leads to hysteresis. Interactions between two stands show how a less resistant stand of trees may provide an initial toe-hold for the invasion, which later leads to a regional beetle outbreak in the

  4. Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne M. Estes

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available “Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1 niche availability and habitat space and 2 a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determine what the person with the microbiome “ate.” Students then model the effect of taking antibiotics by removing certain “antibiotic sensitive” pasta. Finally, they add in “environmental microbes” or “native microbes” to recolonize the digestive system, determine how resilient their model microbome community is to disturbance, and discuss the implications. Throughout the exercise, students discuss differences in the habitat space available and microbiome community diversity. This exercise can be modified to discuss changes in the microbiome due to diet shifts and the emergence of antibiotic resistance in more depth.

  5. Quadratic tracer dynamical models tobacco growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiang Jiyi; Hua Cuncai; Wang Shaohua

    2011-01-01

    In order to study the non-uniformly transferring process of some tracer dosages, we assume that the absorption of some tracer by tobacco is a quadratic function of the tracer quantity of the tracer in the case of fast absorption, whereas the exclusion of the tracer from tobacco is a linear function of the tracer quantity in the case of slow exclusion, after the tracer is introduced into tobacco once at zero time. A single-compartment quadratic dynamical model of Logistic type is established for the leaves of tobacco. Then, a two-compartment quadratic dynamical model is established for leaves and calms of the tobacco. Qualitative analysis of the models shows that the tracer applied to the leaves of the tobacco is excluded finally; however, the tracer stays at the tobacco for finite time. Two methods are also given for computing the parameters in the models. Finally, the results of the models are verified by the 32 P experiment for the absorption of tobacco. (authors)

  6. A Multiscale Model for Virus Capsid Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjun Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Viruses are infectious agents that can cause epidemics and pandemics. The understanding of virus formation, evolution, stability, and interaction with host cells is of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, a virus complex in association with its aquatic environment poses a fabulous challenge to theoretical description and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry-based multiscale paradigm to model complex biomolecule systems. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum domain of the fluid mechanical description of the aquatic environment from the microscopic discrete domain of the atomistic description of the biomolecule. A multiscale action functional is constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales. We show that the classical Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid dynamics and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived from the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows.

  7. A multiscale model for virus capsid dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Changjun; Saxena, Rishu; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-01-01

    Viruses are infectious agents that can cause epidemics and pandemics. The understanding of virus formation, evolution, stability, and interaction with host cells is of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, a virus complex in association with its aquatic environment poses a fabulous challenge to theoretical description and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry-based multiscale paradigm to model complex biomolecule systems. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum domain of the fluid mechanical description of the aquatic environment from the microscopic discrete domain of the atomistic description of the biomolecule. A multiscale action functional is constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales. We show that the classical Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid dynamics and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived from the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows.

  8. Mathematical modeling and applications in nonlinear dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Merdan, Hüseyin

    2016-01-01

    The book covers nonlinear physical problems and mathematical modeling, including molecular biology, genetics, neurosciences, artificial intelligence with classical problems in mechanics and astronomy and physics. The chapters present nonlinear mathematical modeling in life science and physics through nonlinear differential equations, nonlinear discrete equations and hybrid equations. Such modeling can be effectively applied to the wide spectrum of nonlinear physical problems, including the KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM)) theory, singular differential equations, impulsive dichotomous linear systems, analytical bifurcation trees of periodic motions, and almost or pseudo- almost periodic solutions in nonlinear dynamical systems. Provides methods for mathematical models with switching, thresholds, and impulses, each of particular importance for discontinuous processes Includes qualitative analysis of behaviors on Tumor-Immune Systems and methods of analysis for DNA, neural networks and epidemiology Introduces...

  9. Development of moist atmospheric dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuno, Akiko; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1998-12-01

    WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is a system for rapid prediction of long-range atmospheric dispersion and radiological impact due to a nuclear accident. At present, the atmospheric dispersion model GEARN in WSPEEDI simply parameterizes the turbulence diffusion and precipitation scavenging, i.e. rain-out and washout, because information on the boundary layer, cloud and precipitation is insufficient in global forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency which are input data for WSPEEDI. Thus, to provide GEARN with such information, this study aims to introduce a hydrodynamic model into WSPEEDI, which can predict boundary layer processes and moist processes. As the first step, prognostic equations for hydrometeors, cloud formation and precipitation processes are added to the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. This report describes the detail of the modified model code and the results of test calculation. (author)

  10. Dynamical models of happiness with fractional order

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Lei; Xu, Shiyun; Yang, Jianying

    2010-03-01

    This present study focuses on a dynamical model of happiness described through fractional-order differential equations. By categorizing people of different personality and different impact factor of memory (IFM) with different set of model parameters, it is demonstrated via numerical simulations that such fractional-order models could exhibit various behaviors with and without external circumstance. Moreover, control and synchronization problems of this model are discussed, which correspond to the control of emotion as well as emotion synchronization in real life. This study is an endeavor to combine the psychological knowledge with control problems and system theories, and some implications for psychotherapy as well as hints of a personal approach to life are both proposed.

  11. Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that the infected part of the computer disappears, and the virus dies out, and P0 is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium if R01 then this model has only one viral equilibrium P*, which means that the computer persists at a constant endemic level, and P* is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the analytical results.

  12. The SFR-M∗ main sequence archetypal star-formation history and analytical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciesla, L.; Elbaz, D.; Fensch, J.

    2017-12-01

    The star-formation history (SFH) of galaxies is a key assumption to derive their physical properties and can lead to strong biases. In this work, we derive the SFH of main sequence (MS) galaxies and show how the peak SFH of a galaxy depends on its seed mass at, for example, z = 5. This seed mass reflects the galaxy's underlying dark matter (DM) halo environment. We show that, following the MS, galaxies undergo a drastic slow down of their stellar mass growth after reaching the peak of their SFH. According to abundance matching, these masses correspond to hot and massive DM halos which state could result in less efficient gas inflows on the galaxies and thus could be the origin of limited stellar mass growth. As a result, we show that galaxies, still on the MS, can enter the passive region of the UVJ diagram while still forming stars. The best fit to the MS SFH is provided by a right skew peak function for which we provide parameters depending on the seed mass of the galaxy. The ability of the classical analytical SFHs to retrieve the star-formation rate (SFR) of galaxies from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting is studied. Due to mathematical limitations, the exponentially declining and delayed SFH struggle to model high SFR, which starts to be problematic at z > 2. The exponentially rising and log-normal SFHs exhibit the opposite behavior with the ability to reach very high SFR, and thus model starburst galaxies, but they are not able to model low values such as those expected at low redshift for massive galaxies. By simulating galaxies SED from the MS SFH, we show that these four analytical forms recover the SFR of MS galaxies with an error dependent on the model and the redshift. They are, however, sensitive enough to probe small variations of SFR within the MS, with an error ranging from 5 to 40% depending on the SFH assumption and redshift; but all the four fail to recover the SFR of rapidly quenched galaxies. However, these SFHs lead to an artificial

  13. Dynamic modeling of hydrostatic guideway considering compressibility and inertia effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yikang; Mao, Kuanmin; Zhu, Yaming; Wang, Fengyun; Mao, Xiaobo; Li, Bin

    2015-03-01

    Hydrostatic guideways are used as an alternative to contact bearings due to high stiffness and high damping in heavy machine tools. To improve the dynamic characteristic of bearing structure, the dynamic modeling of the hydrostatic guidway should be accurately known. This paper presents a "mass-spring-Maxwell" model considering the effects of inertia, squeeze, compressibility and static bearing. To determine the dynamic model coefficients, numerical simulation of different cases between displacement and dynamic force of oil film are performed with fluent code. Simulation results show that hydrostatic guidway can be taken as a linear system when it is subjected to a small oscillation amplitude. Based on a dynamic model and numerical simulation, every dynamic model's parameters are calculated by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Identification results show that "mass-spring-damper" model is the most appropriate dynamic model of the hydrostatic guidway. This paper provides a reference and preparation for the analysis of the dynamic model of the similar hydrostatic bearings.

  14. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  15. Mathematical Models of Fluid Dynamics Modeling, Theory, Basic Numerical Facts An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Ansorge, Rainer

    2009-01-01

    Without sacrificing scientific strictness, this introduction to the field guides readers through mathematical modeling, the theoretical treatment of the underlying physical laws and the construction and effective use of numerical procedures to describe the behavior of the dynamics of physical flow. The book is carefully divided into three main parts:. - The design of mathematical models of physical fluid flow;. - A theoretical treatment of the equations representing the model, as Navier-Stokes, Euler, and boundary layer equations, models of turbulence, in order to gain qualitative as well as q

  16. OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Brandon Ogbunugafor

    Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

  17. System Dynamics Modelling of the Power Sector in Mauritius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deenapanray Prakash N. K.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A system dynamics model has been developed for the power sector of Mauritius, which captures a range of complex interactions between the economic, social and environmental aspects of the national economy, with deeper emphasis on the role of energy in these interactions. The model has been validated by replicating the historical trends of key development indicators, and its results were compared to the projections of the national utility company. The validation process shows that the model provides a faithful representation of the actual electricity sector of Mauritius, and can be easily adapted to the use of different assumptions. This paper describes the main characteristics of the model and its results as compared to electricity demand projections carried out by the Central Electricity Board to 2022. The results suggest that further analysis could be done to test alternative low carbon investment scenarios.

  18. Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng

    2018-01-01

    Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.

  19. MSMBuilder: Statistical Models for Biomolecular Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Matthew P; Sultan, Mohammad M; Hernández, Carlos X; Husic, Brooke E; Eastman, Peter; Schwantes, Christian R; Beauchamp, Kyle A; McGibbon, Robert T; Pande, Vijay S

    2017-01-10

    MSMBuilder is a software package for building statistical models of high-dimensional time-series data. It is designed with a particular focus on the analysis of atomistic simulations of biomolecular dynamics such as protein folding and conformational change. MSMBuilder is named for its ability to construct Markov state models (MSMs), a class of models that has gained favor among computational biophysicists. In addition to both well-established and newer MSM methods, the package includes complementary algorithms for understanding time-series data such as hidden Markov models and time-structure based independent component analysis. MSMBuilder boasts an easy to use command-line interface, as well as clear and consistent abstractions through its Python application programming interface. MSMBuilder was developed with careful consideration for compatibility with the broader machine learning community by following the design of scikit-learn. The package is used primarily by practitioners of molecular dynamics, but is just as applicable to other computational or experimental time-series measurements. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. II. Application using molecular dynamics simulation and Markov modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Zheng; Lindner, Benjamin; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank; Smith, Jeremy C

    2013-11-07

    Neutron scattering experiments directly probe the dynamics of complex molecules on the sub pico- to microsecond time scales. However, the assignment of the relaxations seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements is difficult, since many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales. In an accompanying article, we present a theoretical approach to the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations with a Markov State Model (MSM) that permits the direct identification of structural transitions leading to each contributing relaxation process. Here, we demonstrate the use of the method by applying it to the configurational dynamics of the well-characterized alanine dipeptide. A practical procedure for deriving the MSM from an MD is introduced. The result is a 9-state MSM in the space of the backbone dihedral angles and the side-chain methyl group. The agreement between the quasielastic spectrum calculated directly from the atomic trajectories and that derived from the Markov state model is excellent. The dependence on the wavevector of the individual Markov processes is described. The procedure means that it is now practicable to interpret quasielastic scattering spectra in terms of well-defined intramolecular transitions with minimal a priori assumptions as to the nature of the dynamics taking place.

  1. Dynamic modelling of Industrial Heavy Water Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teruel, F.E.

    1997-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of the isotopic enrichment unites of the Industrial Heavy Water Plant, located in Arroyito, Neuquen, Argentina, was modeled and simulated in the present work. Dynamic models of the chemical and isotopic interchange processes existent in the plant, were developed. This served as a base to obtain representative models of the different unit and control systems. The developed models were represented in a modular code for each unit. Each simulator consists of approximately one hundred non-linear-first-order differential equations and some other algebraic equation, which are time resolved by the code. The different simulators allow to change a big number of boundary conditions and the control systems set point for each simulation, so that the program become very versatile. The output of the code allows to see the evolution through time of the variables of interest. An interface which facilitates the use of the first enrichment stage simulator was developed. This interface allows an easy access to generate wished events during the simulation and includes the possibility to plot evolution of the variables involved. The obtained results agree with the expected tendencies. The calculated nominal steady state matches by the manufacturer. The different steady states obtained, agree with previous works. The times and tendencies involved in the transients generated by the program, are in good agreement with the experience obtained at the plant. Based in the obtained results, it is concluded that the characteristic times of the plant are determined by the masses involved in the process. Different characteristics in the system dynamic behavior were generated with the different simulators, and were validated by plant personnel. This work allowed to understand the different process involved in the heavy water manufacture, and to develop a very useful tool for the personnel of the plant. (author). 14 refs., figs., tabs. plant. (author). 14 refs., figs., tabs

  2. Reduced complexity modeling of Arctic delta dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piliouras, A.; Lauzon, R.; Rowland, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    How water and sediment are routed through deltas has important implications for our understanding of nutrient and sediment fluxes to the coastal ocean. These fluxes may be especially important in Arctic environments, because the Arctic ocean receives a disproportionately large amount of river discharge and high latitude regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The Arctic has some of the world's largest but least studied deltas. This lack of data is due to remote and hazardous conditions, sparse human populations, and limited remote sensing resources. In the absence of data, complex models may be of limited scientific utility in understanding Arctic delta dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we adapt the reduced complexity delta-building model DeltaRCM for Arctic environments to explore the influence of sea ice and permafrost on delta morphology and dynamics. We represent permafrost by increasing the threshold for sediment erosion, as permafrost has been found to increase cohesion and reduce channel migration rates. The presence of permafrost in the model results in the creation of more elongate channels, fewer active channels, and a rougher shoreline. We consider several effects of sea ice, including introducing friction which increases flow resistance, constriction of flow by landfast ice, and changes in effective water surface elevation. Flow constriction and increased friction from ice results in a rougher shoreline, more frequent channel switching, decreased channel migration rates, and enhanced deposition offshore of channel mouths. The reduced complexity nature of the model is ideal for generating a basic understanding of which processes unique to Arctic environments may have important effects on delta evolution, and it allows us to explore a variety of rules for incorporating those processes into the model to inform future Arctic delta modelling efforts. Finally, we plan to use the modeling results to determine how the presence

  3. Dynamical Analysis of a Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Phytoplankton Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunli Deng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a nitrogen-phosphorus-phytoplankton model in a water ecosystem. The main aim of this research is to analyze the global system dynamics and to study the existence and stability of equilibria. It is shown that the phytoplankton-eradication equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the input nitrogen concentration is less than a certain threshold. However, the coexistence equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable as long as it exists. The system is uniformly persistent within threshold values of certain key parameters. Finally, to verify the results, numerical simulations are provided.

  4. Dynamical phase transitions in Hegselmann-Krause model of opinion dynamics and consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slanina, F.

    2011-01-01

    The dynamics of the model of agents with limited confidence introduced by Hegselmann and Krause exhibits multiple well-separated regimes characterised by the number of distinct clusters in the stationary state. We present indications that there are genuine dynamical phase transitions between these regimes. The main indicator is the divergence of the average evolution time required to reach the stationary state. The slowdown close to the transition is connected with the emergence of the groups of mediator agents which are very small but have decisive role in the process of social convergence. More detailed study shows that the histogram of the evolution times is composed of several peaks. These peaks are unambiguously interpreted as corresponding to mediator groups consisting of one, two, three etc. agents. Detailed study reveals that each transition possesses also an internal fine structure.

  5. Flight Dynamic Model Exchange using XML

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, E. Bruce; Hildreth, Bruce L.

    2002-01-01

    The AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has worked for several years to develop a standard by which the information needed to develop physics-based models of aircraft can be specified. The purpose of this standard is to provide a well-defined set of information, definitions, data tables and axis systems so that cooperating organizations can transfer a model from one simulation facility to another with maximum efficiency. This paper proposes using an application of the eXtensible Markup Language (XML) to implement the AIAA simulation standard. The motivation and justification for using a standard such as XML is discussed. Necessary data elements to be supported are outlined. An example of an aerodynamic model as an XML file is given. This example includes definition of independent and dependent variables for function tables, definition of key variables used to define the model, and axis systems used. The final steps necessary for implementation of the standard are presented. Software to take an XML-defined model and import/export it to/from a given simulation facility is discussed, but not demonstrated. That would be the next step in final implementation of standards for physics-based aircraft dynamic models.

  6. Mineral vein dynamics modelling (FRACS II)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urai, J.; Virgo, S.; Arndt, M.

    2016-08-01

    The Mineral Vein Dynamics Modeling group ''FRACS'' started out as a team of 7 research groups in its first phase and continued with a team of 5 research groups at the Universities of Aachen, Tuebingen, Karlsruhe, Mainz and Glasgow during its second phase ''FRACS 11''. The aim of the group was to develop an advanced understanding of the interplay between fracturing, fluid flow and fracture healing with a special emphasis on the comparison of field data and numerical models. Field areas comprised the Oman mountains in Oman (which where already studied in detail in the first phase), a siliciclastic sequence in the Internal Ligurian Units in Italy (closed to Sestri Levante) and cores of Zechstein carbonates from a Lean Gas reservoir in Northern Germany. Numerical models of fracturing, sealing and interaction with fluid that were developed in phase I where expanded in phase 11. They were used to model small scale fracture healing by crystal growth and the resulting influence on flow, medium scale fracture healing and its influence on successive fracturing and healing, as well as large scale dynamic fluid flow through opening and closing fractures and channels as a function of fluid overpressure. The numerical models were compared with structures in the field and we were able to identify first proxies for mechanical vein-hostrock properties and fluid overpressures versus tectonic stresses. Finally we propose a new classification of stylolites based on numerical models and observations in the Zechstein cores and continued to develop a new stress inversion tool to use stylolites to estimate depth of their formation.

  7. Dynamic Assessment addressing the communicative potential of persons who mainly communicate non-verbally : A descriptive review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boers, Erika; Janssen, Helena; Minnaert, Alexander; Ruijssenaars, Aloysius

    2013-01-01

    Many people with severe disabilities face difficulties communicating with their communication partners and rely primarily on prelinguistic communication. It is accepted that dynamic assessment can play an important role in improving communication and in measuring a person’s ability to learn new

  8. An extended dissipative particle dynamics model

    CERN Document Server

    Cotter, C J

    2003-01-01

    The method of dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) was introduced by Hoogerbrugge & Koelman to study meso-scale material processes. The theoretical investigation of the DPD method was initiated by Espanol who used a Fokker-Planck formulation of the DPD method and applied the Mori-Zwanzig projection operator calculus to obtain the equations of hydrodynamics for DPD. A current limitation of DPD is that it requires a clear separation of scales between the resolved and unresolved processes. In this note, we suggest a simple extension of DPD that allows for inclusion of unresolved processes with exponentially decaying variance for any value of the decay rate. The main point of the extension is that it is as easy to implement as DPD in a numerical algorithm.

  9. Discrete modeling considerations in multiphase fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ransom, V.H.; Ramshaw, J.D.

    1988-01-01

    The modeling of multiphase flows play a fundamental role in light water reactor safety. The main ingredients in our discrete modeling Weltanschauung are the following considerations: (1) Any physical model must be cast into discrete form for a digital computer. (2) The usual approach of formulating models in differential form and then discretizing them is potentially hazardous. It may be preferable to formulate the model in discrete terms from the outset. (3) Computer time and storage constraints limit the resolution that can be employed in practical calculations. These limits effectively define the physical phenomena, length scales, and time scales which cannot be directly represented in the calculation and therefore must be modeled. This information should be injected into the model formulation process at an early stage. (4) Practical resolution limits are generally so coarse that traditional convergence and truncation-error analyses become irrelevant. (5) A discrete model constitutes a reduced description of a physical system, from which fine-scale details are eliminated. This elimination creates a statistical closure problem. Methods from statistical physics may therefore be useful in the formulation of discrete models. In the present paper we elaborate on these themes and illustrate them with simple examples. 48 refs

  10. A dynamic model of the wormhole and the Multiverse model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shatskii, A A; Kardashev, N S [Astro-Space Centre of the P. N. Lebedev Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Novikov, I D [Russian Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2008-05-31

    An analytic solution methodology for general relativity (GR) equations describing the hypothetical phenomenon of wormholes is presented and the analysis of wormholes in terms of their physical properties is discussed. An analytic solution of the GR equations for static and dynamic spherically symmetric wormholes is given. The dynamic solution generally describes a 'traversable' wormhole, i.e., one allowing matter, energy, and information to pass through it. It is shown how the energy-momentum tensor of matter in a wormhole can be represented in a form allowing the GR equations to be solved analytically, which has a crucial methodological importance for analyzing the properties of the solution obtained. The energy-momentum tensor of wormhole matter is represented as a superposition of a spherically symmetric magnetic (or electric) field and negative-density dust matter, serving as exotic matter necessary for a 'traversable' wormhole to exist. The dynamics of the model are investigated. A similar model is considered (and analyzed in terms of inflation) for the Einstein equations with a {lambda} term. Superposing enough dust matter, a magnetic field, and a {lambda} term can produce a static solution, which turns out to be a spherical Multiverse model with an infinite number of wormhole-connected spherical universes. This Multiverse can have its total energy positive everywhere in space, and in addition can be out of equilibrium (i.e., dynamic). (methodological notes)

  11. Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in magmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Christian; Su, Yanqing; Parmigiani, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the complex non-linear physics that governs volcanic eruptions is contingent on our ability to characterize the dynamics of bubbles and its effect on the ascending magma. The exsolution and migration of bubbles has also a great impact on the heat and mass transport in and out of magma bodies stored at shallow depths in the crust. Multiphase systems like magmas are by definition heterogeneous at small scales. Although mixture theory or homogenization methods are convenient to represent multiphase systems as a homogeneous equivalent media, these approaches do not inform us on possible feedbacks at the pore-scale and can be significantly misleading. In this presentation, we discuss the development and application of bubble-scale multiphase flow modeling to address the following questions : How do bubbles impact heat and mass transport in magma chambers ? How efficient are chemical exchanges between the melt and bubbles during magma decompression? What is the role of hydrodynamic interactions on the deformation of bubbles while the magma is sheared? Addressing these questions requires powerful numerical methods that accurately model the balance between viscous, capillary and pressure stresses. We discuss how these bubble-scale models can provide important constraints on the dynamics of magmas stored at shallow depth or ascending to the surface during an eruption.

  12. MODELS AND THE DYNAMICS OF THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Abrantes

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This paper gives a historical overview of the ways various trends in the philosophy of science dealt with models and their relationship with the topics of heuristics and theoretical dynamics. First of all, N. Campbell’s account of analogies as components of scientific theories is presented. Next, the notion of ‘model’ in the reconstruction of the structure of scientific theories proposed by logical empiricists is examined. This overview finishes with M. Hesse’s attempts to develop Campbell’s early ideas in terms of an analogical inference. The final part of the paper points to contemporary developments on these issues which adopt a cognitivist perspective. It is indicated how discussions in the cognitive sciences might help to flesh out some of the insights philosophers of science had concerning the role models and analogies play in actual scientific theorizing. Key words: models, analogical reasoning, metaphors in science, the structure of scientific theories, theoretical dynamics, heuristics, scientific discovery.

  13. Introduction to mathematical modeling and chaotic dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar

    2013-01-01

    ""The presentation is so clear that anyone with even a basic mathematical background can study it and get a clear picture. … Unlike many other similar textbooks, a rich reference section is given at the end of each chapter. The cautious selection of worked out examples and exercises throughout the book is superb. For anyone with previous experience of having run into books in mathematical modeling and chaotic dynamics that rapidly move into advanced mathematical content, the book offers a pleasant recourse at an introductory level and therefore can be very inspirational.""-MAA Reviews, Decembe

  14. A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Response to Dynamic Exercise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Magosso, E

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...

  15. Trophic dynamics of a simple model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Graham; Fortier-Dubois, Étienne

    2017-09-13

    We have constructed a model of community dynamics that is simple enough to enumerate all possible food webs, yet complex enough to represent a wide range of ecological processes. We use the transition matrix to predict the outcome of succession and then investigate how the transition probabilities are governed by resource supply and immigration. Low-input regimes lead to simple communities whereas trophically complex communities develop when there is an adequate supply of both resources and immigrants. Our interpretation of trophic dynamics in complex communities hinges on a new principle of mutual replenishment, defined as the reciprocal alternation of state in a pair of communities linked by the invasion and extinction of a shared species. Such neutral couples are the outcome of succession under local dispersal and imply that food webs will often be made up of suites of trophically equivalent species. When immigrants arrive from an external pool of fixed composition a similar principle predicts a dynamic core of webs constituting a neutral interchange network, although communities may express an extensive range of other webs whose membership is only in part predictable. The food web is not in general predictable from whole-community properties such as productivity or stability, although it may profoundly influence these properties. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Computational social dynamic modeling of group recruitment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Nina M.; Lee, Marinna; Pickett, Marc; Turnley, Jessica Glicken (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Smrcka, Julianne D. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Ko, Teresa H.; Moy, Timothy David (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Wu, Benjamin C.

    2004-01-01

    The Seldon software toolkit combines concepts from agent-based modeling and social science to create a computationally social dynamic model for group recruitment. The underlying recruitment model is based on a unique three-level hybrid agent-based architecture that contains simple agents (level one), abstract agents (level two), and cognitive agents (level three). This uniqueness of this architecture begins with abstract agents that permit the model to include social concepts (gang) or institutional concepts (school) into a typical software simulation environment. The future addition of cognitive agents to the recruitment model will provide a unique entity that does not exist in any agent-based modeling toolkits to date. We use social networks to provide an integrated mesh within and between the different levels. This Java based toolkit is used to analyze different social concepts based on initialization input from the user. The input alters a set of parameters used to influence the values associated with the simple agents, abstract agents, and the interactions (simple agent-simple agent or simple agent-abstract agent) between these entities. The results of phase-1 Seldon toolkit provide insight into how certain social concepts apply to different scenario development for inner city gang recruitment.

  17. AFDM: An advanced fluid-dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henneges, G.; Kleinheins, S.

    1994-01-01

    This volume of the Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model (AFDM) documents the modeling of the equation of state (EOS) in the code. The authors present an overview of the basic concepts underlying the thermodynamics modeling and resulting EOS, which is a set of relations between the thermodynamic properties of materials. The AFDM code allows for multiphase-multimaterial systems, which they explore in three phase models: two-material solid, two-material liquid, and three-material vapor. They describe and compare two ways of specifying the EOS of materials: (1) as simplified analytic expressions, or (2) as tables that precisely describe the properties of materials and their interactions for mechanical equilibrium. Either of the two EOS models implemented in AFDM can be selected by specifying the option when preprocessing the source code for compilation. Last, the authors determine thermophysical properties such as surface tension, thermal conductivities, and viscosities in the model for the intracell exchanges of AFDM. Specific notations, routines, EOS data, plots, test results, and corrections to the code are available in the appendices

  18. Testing substellar models with dynamical mass measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu M.C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We have been using Keck laser guide star adaptive optics to monitor the orbits of ultracool binaries, providing dynamical masses at lower luminosities and temperatures than previously available and enabling strong tests of theoretical models. We have identified three specific problems with theory: (1 We find that model color–magnitude diagrams cannot be reliably used to infer masses as they do not accurately reproduce the colors of ultracool dwarfs of known mass. (2 Effective temperatures inferred from evolutionary model radii are typically inconsistent with temperatures derived from fitting atmospheric models to observed spectra by 100–300 K. (3 For the only known pair of field brown dwarfs with a precise mass (3% and age determination (≈25%, the measured luminosities are ~2–3× higher than predicted by model cooling rates (i.e., masses inferred from Lbol and age are 20–30% larger than measured. To make progress in understanding the observed discrepancies, more mass measurements spanning a wide range of luminosity, temperature, and age are needed, along with more accurate age determinations (e.g., via asteroseismology for primary stars with brown dwarf binary companions. Also, resolved optical and infrared spectroscopy are needed to measure lithium depletion and to characterize the atmospheres of binary components in order to better assess model deficiencies.

  19. Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez Ruben L

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.

  20. Modeling of behaviour of main type personnel in Kozloduy NPP during different operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hristova, R.; Kalchev, B.

    2000-01-01

    The subject of this article is the personnel behavior and initiating events modeling, based on the operational experience in the NPP 'Kozloduy' initiating events reports. The development of models on qualitative information is much more difficult comparing the quantitative modeling. The modelling process is based on the artificial intelligence theory and methods including knowledge base and inference machine in the frame of logical models and semantic networks. (author)

  1. Mathematical Modeling for Lateral Displacement Induced by Wind Velocity Using Monitoring Data Obtained from Main Girder of Sutong Cable-Stayed Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao-Xin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the health monitoring system installed on the main span of Sutong Cable-Stayed Bridge, GPS displacement and wind field are real-time monitored and analyzed. According to analytical results, apparent nonlinear correlation with certain discreteness exists between lateral static girder displacement and lateral static wind velocity; thus time series of lateral static girder displacement are decomposed into nonlinear correlation term and discreteness term, nonlinear correlation term of which is mathematically modeled by third-order Fourier series with intervention of lateral static wind velocity and discreteness term of which is mathematically modeled by the combined models of ARMA(7,4 and EGARCH(2,1. Additionally, stable power spectrum density exists in time series of lateral dynamic girder displacement, which can be well described by the fourth-order Gaussian series; thus time series of lateral dynamic girder displacement are mathematically modeled by harmonic superposition function. By comparison and verification between simulative and monitoring lateral girder displacements from September 1 to September 3, the presented mathematical models are effective to simulate time series of lateral girder displacement from main girder of Sutong Cable-Stayed Bridge.

  2. Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardini, L.; Hommes, C.; Tramontana, F.; de Vilder, R.

    2009-01-01

    In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the

  3. A Simple General Model of Evolutionary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan

    Evolution is a process in which some variations that emerge within a population (of, e.g., biological species or industrial goods) get selected, survive, and proliferate, whereas others vanish. Survival probability, proliferation, or production rates are associated with the "fitness" of a particular variation. We argue that the notion of fitness is an a posteriori concept in the sense that one can assign higher fitness to species or goods that survive but one can generally not derive or predict fitness per se. Whereas proliferation rates can be measured, fitness landscapes, that is, the inter-dependence of proliferation rates, cannot. For this reason we think that in a physical theory of evolution such notions should be avoided. Here we review a recent quantitative formulation of evolutionary dynamics that provides a framework for the co-evolution of species and their fitness landscapes (Thurner et al., 2010, Physica A 389, 747; Thurner et al., 2010, New J. Phys. 12, 075029; Klimek et al., 2009, Phys. Rev. E 82, 011901 (2010). The corresponding model leads to a generic evolutionary dynamics characterized by phases of relative stability in terms of diversity, followed by phases of massive restructuring. These dynamical modes can be interpreted as punctuated equilibria in biology, or Schumpeterian business cycles (Schumpeter, 1939, Business Cycles, McGraw-Hill, London) in economics. We show that phase transitions that separate phases of high and low diversity can be approximated surprisingly well by mean-field methods. We demonstrate that the mathematical framework is suited to understand systemic properties of evolutionary systems, such as their proneness to collapse, or their potential for diversification. The framework suggests that evolutionary processes are naturally linked to self-organized criticality and to properties of production matrices, such as their eigenvalue spectra. Even though the model is phrased in general terms it is also practical in the sense

  4. Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

    2006-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

  5. [Compatible biomass models for main tree species with measurement error in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Li-hu; Li, Feng-ri; Jia, Wei-wei; Liu, Fu-xiang; Wang, He-zhi

    2011-10-01

    Based on the biomass data of 516 sampling trees, and by using non-linear error-in-variable modeling approach, the compatible models for the total biomass and the biomass of six components including aboveground part, underground part, stem, crown, branch, and foliage of 15 major tree species (or groups) in Heilongjiang Province were established, and the best models for the total biomass and components biomass were selected. The compatible models based on total biomass were developed by adopting the method of joint control different level ratio function. The heteroscedasticity of the models for total biomass was eliminated with log transformation, and the weighted regression was applied to the models for each individual component. Among the compatible biomass models established for the 15 major species (or groups) , the model for total biomass had the highest prediction precision (90% or more), followed by the models for aboveground part and stem biomass, with a precision of 87.5% or more. The prediction precision of the biomass models for other components was relatively low, but it was still greater than 80% for most test tree species. The modeling efficiency (EF) values of the total, aboveground part, and stem biomass models for all the tree species (or groups) were over 0.9, and the EF values of the underground part, crown, branch, and foliage biomass models were over 0.8.

  6. Dynamic modelling of packaging material flow systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiliyannis, Christos A

    2005-04-01

    A dynamic model has been developed for reused and recycled packaging material flows. It allows a rigorous description of the flows and stocks during the transition to new targets imposed by legislation, product demand variations or even by variations in consumer discard behaviour. Given the annual reuse and recycle frequency and packaging lifetime, the model determines all packaging flows (e.g., consumption and reuse) and variables through which environmental policy is formulated, such as recycling, waste and reuse rates and it identifies the minimum number of variables to be surveyed for complete packaging flow monitoring. Simulation of the transition to the new flow conditions is given for flows of packaging materials in Greece, based on 1995--1998 field inventory and statistical data.

  7. Dynamical Model of Fission Fragment Angular Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drozdov, V. A.; Eremenko, D. O.; Fotina, O. V.; Platonov, S. Yu.; Yuminov, O. A.; Giardina, G.; Taccone, A.

    2002-01-01

    A dynamical model of fission fragment angular distributions is suggested. The model allows one to calculate fission fragment angular distributions, prescission light particle multyplicities, evaporation residue cross sections etc. for the cases of decay of hot and rotating heavy nuclei. The experimental data on angular anisotropies of fission fragments and prescission neutron multiplicities are analyzed for the 16O + 208Pb, 232Th, 248Cm and 238U reactions at the energies of the incident 16O ions ranging from 90 to 160 MeV. This analysis allows us to extract both the nuclear friction coefficient value and the relaxation time for the tilting mode. It is also demonstrated that the angular distributions are sensitive to the deformation dependence of the nuclear friction.

  8. BWR stability using a reduced dynamical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballestrin Bolea, J.M.; Blazquez, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical struct-ure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations in non-linear. Simple parametric calculat-ion of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author). 7 refs

  9. Nonsmooth mechanics models, dynamics and control

    CERN Document Server

    Brogliato, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Now in its third edition, this standard reference is a comprehensive treatment of nonsmooth mechanical systems refocused to give more prominence to control and modelling. It covers Lagrangian and Newton–Euler systems, detailing mathematical tools such as convex analysis and complementarity theory. The ways in which nonsmooth mechanics influence and are influenced by well-posedness analysis, numerical analysis and simulation, modelling and control are explained. Contact/impact laws, stability theory and trajectory-tracking control are given in-depth exposition connected by a framework formed from complementarity systems and measure-differential inclusions. Links are established with electrical circuits with set-valued nonsmooth elements and with other nonsmooth dynamical systems like impulsive and piecewise linear systems. Nonsmooth Mechanics (third edition) has been substantially rewritten, edited and updated to account for the significant body of results that have emerged in the twenty-first century—incl...

  10. Quantum quench dynamics of the Luttinger model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iucci, A.; Cazalilla, M. A.

    2009-12-01

    The dynamics of the Luttinger model after a quantum quench is studied. We compute in detail one- and two-point correlation functions for two types of quenches: from a noninteracting to an interacting Luttinger model and vice versa. In the former case, the noninteracting Fermi gas features in the momentum distribution and other correlation functions are destroyed as time evolves. In the infinite-time limit, equal-time correlations are power laws but the critical exponents are found to differ from their equilibrium values. In all cases, we find that these correlations are well described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble [M. Rigol, V. Dunjko, V. Yurovsky, and M. Olshanii, Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 050405 (2007)], which assigns a momentum-dependent temperature to each eigenmode.

  11. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  12. Microscopic to Macroscopic Dynamical Models of Sociality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solis Salas, Citlali; Woolley, Thomas; Pearce, Eiluned; Dunbar, Robin; Maini, Philip; Social; Evolutionary Neuroscience Research Group (Senrg) Collaboration

    To help them survive, social animals, such as humans, need to share knowledge and responsibilities with other members of the species. The larger their social network, the bigger the pool of knowledge available to them. Since time is a limited resource, a way of optimising its use is meeting amongst individuals whilst fulfilling other necessities. In this sense it is useful to know how many, and how often, early humans could meet during a given period of time whilst performing other necessary tasks, such as food gathering. Using a simplified model of these dynamics, which comprehend encounter and memory, we aim at producing a lower-bound to the number of meetings hunter-gatherers could have during a year. We compare the stochastic agent-based model to its mean-field approximation and explore some of the features necessary for the difference between low population dynamics and its continuum limit. We observe an emergent property that could have an inference in the layered structure seen in each person's social organisation. This could give some insight into hunter-gatherer's lives and the development of the social layered structure we have today. With support from the Mexican Council for Science and Technology (CONACyT), the Public Education Secretariat (SEP), and the Mexican National Autonomous University's Foundation (Fundacion UNAM).

  13. Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.

    2012-01-01

    Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.

  14. Dynamical relaxation in 2HDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalak, Zygmunt; Markiewicz, Adam

    2018-03-01

    Dynamical relaxation provides an interesting solution to the hierarchy problem in face of the missing signatures of any new physics in recent experiments. Through a dynamical process taking place in the inflationary phase of the Universe it manages to achieve a small electroweak scale without introducing new states observable in current experiments. Appropriate approximation makes it possible to derive an explicit formula for the final vevs in the double-scanning scenario extended to a model with two Higgs doublets (2HDM). Analysis of the relaxation in the 2HDM confirms that in a general case it is impossible to keep vevs of both scalars small, unless fine-tuning is present or additional symmetries are cast upon the Lagrangian. Within the slightly constrained variant of the 2HDM, where odd powers of the fields’ expectation values are not present (which can be easily enforced by requiring that the doublets have different gauge transformations or by imposing a global symmetry) it is shown that the difference between the vevs of two scalars tends to be proportional to the cutoff. The analysis of the relaxation in 2HDM indicates that in a general case the relaxation would be stopped by the first doublet that gains a vev, with the other one remaining vevless with a mass of the order of the cutoff. This happens to conform with the inert doublet model.

  15. Modeling Insurgent Network Structure and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael; Thirkill-Mackelprang, Ashley

    2010-03-01

    We present a methodology for mapping insurgent network structure based on their public rhetoric. Indicators of cooperative links between insurgent groups at both the leadership and rank-and-file levels are used, such as joint policy statements or joint operations claims. In addition, a targeting policy measure is constructed on the basis of insurgent targeting claims. Network diagrams which integrate these measures of insurgent cooperation and ideology are generated for different periods of the Iraqi and Afghan insurgencies. The network diagrams exhibit meaningful changes which track the evolution of the strategic environment faced by insurgent groups. Correlations between targeting policy and network structure indicate that insurgent targeting claims are aimed at establishing a group identity among the spectrum of rank-and-file insurgency supporters. A dynamical systems model of insurgent alliance formation and factionalism is presented which evolves the relationship between insurgent group dyads as a function of their ideological differences and their current relationships. The ability of the model to qualitatively and quantitatively capture insurgent network dynamics observed in the data is discussed.

  16. Modeling quantum fluid dynamics at nonzero temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berloff, Natalia G.; Brachet, Marc; Proukakis, Nick P.

    2014-01-01

    The detailed understanding of the intricate dynamics of quantum fluids, in particular in the rapidly growing subfield of quantum turbulence which elucidates the evolution of a vortex tangle in a superfluid, requires an in-depth understanding of the role of finite temperature in such systems. The Landau two-fluid model is the most successful hydrodynamical theory of superfluid helium, but by the nature of the scale separations it cannot give an adequate description of the processes involving vortex dynamics and interactions. In our contribution we introduce a framework based on a nonlinear classical-field equation that is mathematically identical to the Landau model and provides a mechanism for severing and coalescence of vortex lines, so that the questions related to the behavior of quantized vortices can be addressed self-consistently. The correct equation of state as well as nonlocality of interactions that leads to the existence of the roton minimum can also be introduced in such description. We review and apply the ideas developed for finite-temperature description of weakly interacting Bose gases as possible extensions and numerical refinements of the proposed method. We apply this method to elucidate the behavior of the vortices during expansion and contraction following the change in applied pressure. We show that at low temperatures, during the contraction of the vortex core as the negative pressure grows back to positive values, the vortex line density grows through a mechanism of vortex multiplication. This mechanism is suppressed at high temperatures. PMID:24704874

  17. Multi-Scale Modeling of Magnetospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Toth, G.

    2012-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection is a key element in many phenomena in space plasma, e.g. Coronal mass Ejections, Magnetosphere substorms. One of the major challenges in modeling the dynamics of large-scale systems involving magnetic reconnection is to quantifY the interaction between global evolution of the magnetosphere and microphysical kinetic processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. Recent advances in small-scale kinetic modeling of magnetic reconnection significantly improved our understanding of physical mechanisms controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in collisionless plasma. However the progress in studies of small-scale geometries was not very helpful for large scale simulations. Global magnetosphere simulations usually include non-ideal processes in terms of numerical dissipation and/or ad hoc anomalous resistivity. Comparative studies of magnetic reconnection in small scale geometries demonstrated that MHD simulations that included non-ideal processes in terms of a resistive term 11 J did not produce fast reconnection rates observed in kinetic simulations. In collisionless magnetospheric plasma, the primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site is nongyrotropic pressure effects with spatial scales comparable with the particle Larmor radius. We utilize the global MHD code BATSRUS and replace ad hoc parameters such as "critical current density" and "anomalous resistivity" with a physically motivated model of dissipation. The primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in incorporated into MHD description in terms of non-gyrotropic corrections to the induction equation. We will demonstrate that kinetic nongyrotropic effects can significantly alter the global magnetosphere evolution. Our approach allowed for the first time to model loading/unloading cycle in response to steady southward IMF driving. The role of solar wind parameters and

  18. A vehicle overtaking model of traffic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamison, S; McCartney, M

    2007-09-01

    Mathematical models that describe the dynamical behavior of a group of vehicles as they move along a stretch of road are known as car following models. They attempt to model the interactions between individual vehicles where the behavior of each vehicle is dependent on the motion of the vehicle directly in front and overtaking is not permitted. In this paper, the traditional car following model is modified by removing this "no overtaking" restriction and its behavior is investigated for a group of vehicles traveling on a closed loop. The resulting model is described in terms of a set of coupled time delay differential equations, and these are solved numerically to analyze their post transient behavior under a periodic perturbation. The effect of varying both the time taken for the driver to respond to the behavior of the vehicle in front and the length of the closed loop is examined. For certain parameter choices, the post transient behavior is found to be chaotic, and in these cases the degree of chaos is estimated using the Grassberger-Procaccia dimension.

  19. DYNAMIC MODELLING OF VIBRATIONS ASSISTED DRILLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu LADONNE

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The number of multi-materials staking configurations for aeronautical structures is increasing, with the evolution of composite and metallic materials. For drilling the fastening holes, the processes of Vibration Assisted Drilling (VAD expand rapidly, as it permits to improve reliability of drilling operations on multilayer structures. Among these processes of VAD, the solution with forced vibrations added to conventional feed to create a discontinuous cutting is the more developed in industry. The back and forth movement allows to improve the evacuation of chips by breaking it. This technology introduces two new operating parameters, the frequency and the amplitude of the oscillation. To optimize the process, the choice of those parameters requires first to model precisely the operation cutting and dynamics. In this paper, a kinematic modelling of the process is firstly proposed. The limits of the model are analysed through comparison between simulations and measurements. The proposed model is used to develop a cutting force model that allows foreseeing the operating conditions which ensure good chips breaking and tool life improvement.

  20. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Bacillus anthracis ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal Article Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics and Lagrangian particle deposition models were developed to compare the deposition of aerosolized Bacillus anthracis spores in the respiratory airways of a human with that of the rabbit, a species commonly used in the study of anthrax disease. The respiratory airway geometries for each species were derived from computed tomography (CT) or µCT images. Both models encompassed airways that extended from the external nose to the lung with a total of 272 outlets in the human model and 2878 outlets in the rabbit model. All simulations of spore deposition were conducted under transient, inhalation-exhalation breathing conditions using average species-specific minute volumes. Four different exposure scenarios were modeled in the rabbit based upon experimental inhalation studies. For comparison, human simulations were conducted at the highest exposure concentration used during the rabbit experimental exposures. Results demonstrated that regional spore deposition patterns were sensitive to airway geometry and ventilation profiles. Despite the complex airway geometries in the rabbit nose, higher spore deposition efficiency was predicted in the upper conducting airways of the human at the same air concentration of anthrax spores. This greater deposition of spores in the upper airways in the human resulted in lower penetration and deposition in the tracheobronchial airways and the deep lung than that predict

  1. Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis

    2001-10-01

    Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.

  2. Quasi-dynamic model for an organic Rankine cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bamgbopa, Musbaudeen O.; Uzgoren, Eray

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Study presents a simplified transient modeling approach for an ORC under variable heat input. • The ORC model is presented as a synthesis of its models of its sub-components. • The model is compared to benchmark numerical simulations and experimental data at different stages. - Abstract: When considering solar based thermal energy input to an organic Rankine cycle (ORC), intermittent nature of the heat input does not only adversely affect the power output but also it may prevent ORC to operate under steady state conditions. In order to identify reliability and efficiency of such systems, this paper presents a simplified transient modeling approach for an ORC operating under variable heat input. The approach considers that response of the system to heat input variations is mainly dictated by the evaporator. Consequently, overall system is assembled using dynamic models for the heat exchangers (evaporator and condenser) and static models of the pump and the expander. In addition, pressure drop within heat exchangers is neglected. The model is compared to benchmark numerical and experimental data showing that the underlying assumptions are reasonable for cases where thermal input varies in time. Furthermore, the model is studied on another configuration and mass flow rates of both the working fluid and hot water and hot water’s inlet temperature to the ORC unit are shown to have direct influence on the system’s response

  3. Dynamics of a delayed intraguild predation model with harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collera, Juancho A.; Balilo, Aldrin T.

    2018-03-01

    In [1], a delayed three-species intraguild predation (IGP) model was considered. This particular tri-trophic community module includes a predator and its prey which share a common basal resource for their sustenance [3]. Here, it is assumed that in the absence of predation, the growth of the basal resource follows the delayed logistic equation. Without delay time, the IGP model in [1] reduces to the system considered in [7] where it was shown that IGP may induce chaos even if the functional responses are linear. Meanwhile, in [2] the delayed IGP model in [1] was generalized to include harvesting. Under the assumption that the basal resource has some economic value, a constant harvesting term on the basal resource was incorporated. However, both models in [1] and [2] use the delay time as the main parameter. In this research, we studied the delayed IGP model in [1] with the addition of linear harvesting term on each of the three species. The dynamical behavior of this system is examined using the harvesting rates as main parameter. In particular, we give conditions on the existence, stability, and bifurcations of equilibrium solutions of this system. This allows us to better understand the effects of harvesting in terms of the survival or extinction of one or more species in our system. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our results. In fact, we show that the chaotic behavior in [7] unfolds when the harvesting rate parameter is varied.

  4. Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulation for Human Dynamics in Social Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Xiao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the human behavior in the top-one social network system in China (Sina Microblog system. By analyzing real-life data at a large scale, we find that the message releasing interval (intermessage time obeys power law distribution both at individual level and at group level. Statistical analysis also reveals that human behavior in social network is mainly driven by four basic elements: social pressure, social identity, social participation, and social relation between individuals. Empirical results present the four elements' impact on the human behavior and the relation between these elements. To further understand the mechanism of such dynamic phenomena, a hybrid human dynamic model which combines “interest” of individual and “interaction” among people is introduced, incorporating the four elements simultaneously. To provide a solid evaluation, we simulate both two-agent and multiagent interactions with real-life social network topology. We achieve the consistent results between empirical studies and the simulations. The model can provide a good understanding of human dynamics in social network.

  5. Standard Model-like corrections to Dilatonic Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antipin, Oleg; Krog, Jens; Mølgaard, Esben

    2013-01-01

    We examine the effects of standard model-like interactions on the near-conformal dynamics of a theory featuring a dilatonic state identified with the standard model-like Higgs. As template for near-conformal dynamics we use a gauge theory with fermionic matter and elementary mesons possessing...... conformal dynamics could accommodate the observed Higgs-like properties....

  6. Determination and Verification of the main Dynamic Characteristics of a Spatially Large Structure Using the Basic Records Combination Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Murzea

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to present some methodological aspects regarding the determination of the vibration eigenmodes of a spatially large, symmetric structure and afterwards to show the obtained results for a spectral analysis of the ground motion in the horizontal plane, corresponding to steady state micro-tremors. The recorded velocigrams concern the rigid body motion of the main ring of the structure (translation along different horizontal directions and rotation with respect to the vertical symmetry axis as well as ovalization oscillations (mainly second order ovalization. The necessary data for the analysis was obtained through an efficient technique of combining basic records gathered with the help of data acquisition systems, on site, using three different schemes for the placement of the recording sensors.

  7. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  8. Blending geological observations and convection models to reconstruct mantle dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Bocher, Marie; Fournier, Alexandre; Tackley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Knowledge of the state of the Earth mantle and its temporal evolution is fundamental to a variety of disciplines in Earth Sciences, from the internal dynamics to its many expressions in the geological record (postglacial rebound, sea level change, ore deposit, tectonics or geomagnetic reversals). Mantle convection theory is the centerpiece to unravel the present and past state of the mantle. For the past 40 years considerable efforts have been made to improve the quality of numerical models of mantle convection. However, they are still sparsely used to estimate the convective history of the solid Earth, in comparison to ocean or atmospheric models for weather and climate prediction. The main shortcoming is their inability to successfully produce Earth-like seafloor spreading and continental drift self-consistently. Recent convection models have begun to successfully predict these processes. Such breakthrough opens the opportunity to retrieve the recent dynamics of the Earth's mantle by blending convection models together with advanced geological datasets. A proof of concept will be presented, consisting in a synthetic test based on a sequential data assimilation methodology.

  9. Dynamic Modeling and Control of a Tethered Space Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Soltani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In present study, dynamic modeling and control of a tethered space robot system in trajectory tracking of its end effector is investigated. Considering variation of the tether length in the model, dynamics of the system is modeled using Lagrange’s method. Librational motion of the tether is controlled by adjusting the tether length similar to conventional manipulators,control of the robot is performed by its motors. It is clear that, in the trajectory tracking of the end effector, the tether length should be kept more or less constant, keeping them in a stable position. Limiting the tether length variation while using it as a tool for controlling the tether librational motion, is the main challenging part of the control system. To deal with this problem, a hybrid control  system is proposed to control the system. A nonlinear model predictive control approach (NMPC is utilized to control the tether librational motion and a modified computed torque method (CTM is used to control the manipulator motion. Initially the NMPC controller is developed for a simple tethered satellite system. Then it is combined with the CTM controller. The proposed controller is employed to control motion of a space robot’s end effector on a predefined trajectory. Performance of the controller is then evaluated by numerical simulations.

  10. Investigation on the static and dynamic structural behaviors of a regional aircraft main landing gear by a new numerical methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Caputo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new methodology supporting the design of landing gears is proposed. Generally, a preliminary step is performed with simplified FE model, usually one-dimensional, to achieve the reaction forces involving each component during all aforementioned aircraft operations. Though this approach gives a valid support to the designer, it is characterized by several problems, such as the related approximations. So, it is important, by a numerical point of view, to develop an isostatic FE model equivalent to the real one. In fact, if the landing gear is modelled as hyperstatic, the static equilibrium equations are insufficient for determining the internal forces and reactions on each sub-component; so, the modelled material properties and geometries assume an increasing importance, which gets the model too approximating. The proposed methodology consists of achieving the reaction forces by means of multibody simulations, by overcoming such problems, since each component is modelled as rigid. In this paper, also a FE model for the investigation of the structural response is proposed. Aimed to Certification by Analysis purposes, the developed multibody and the FE models have been assessed against an experimental landing gear drop test carried out by Magnaghi Aeronautica S.p.A., according to the EASA CS 25 regulations

  11. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  12. Adiabatic modeling of the relativistic electron fluxes during the storm main phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.-J.; Rostoker, G.; Kamide, Y.

    Satellite observations have shown that flux variations of outer belt relativistic electrons exhibit a strong radial dependence during the storm main phase. This L dependence can be characterized as small decreases (or at times increases) near the inner edge of the belt and large decreases in its outer region. This paper examines the characteristic radial dependence in terms of the fully adiabatic response of relativistic electrons to magnetic field perturbations. We calculate storm time electron fluxes by adiabatically evolving quiet time values, using Lionville's theorem and the conservation of the three adiabatic invariants. In an adiabatic process, the main phase electron fluxes are affected by the radial structure of magnetic field perturbations and the spatial and energy dependence of the quiet time electron distribution. In response to the field perturbations, adiabatic flux changes become larger at higher L shells where electrons can experience strong deceleration and considerable radial displacement. We conclude that a fully adiabatic treatment can reproduce the overall pattern of the observed radial dependence of relativistic electron fluxes during the storm main phase, although this does not deny the importance of non-adiabatic processes during individual geomagnetic storms.

  13. Dynamic hysteresis modeling including skin effect using diffusion equation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamada, Souad, E-mail: souadhamada@yahoo.fr [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Louai, Fatima Zohra, E-mail: fz_louai@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Nait-Said, Nasreddine, E-mail: n_naitsaid@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Benabou, Abdelkader, E-mail: Abdelkader.Benabou@univ-lille1.fr [L2EP, Université de Lille1, 59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq (France)

    2016-07-15

    An improved dynamic hysteresis model is proposed for the prediction of hysteresis loop of electrical steel up to mean frequencies, taking into account the skin effect. In previous works, the analytical solution of the diffusion equation for low frequency (DELF) was coupled with the inverse static Jiles-Atherton (JA) model in order to represent the hysteresis behavior for a lamination. In the present paper, this approach is improved to ensure the reproducibility of measured hysteresis loops at mean frequency. The results of simulation are compared with the experimental ones. The selected results for frequencies 50 Hz, 100 Hz, 200 Hz and 400 Hz are presented and discussed.

  14. Postprandial changes in secretory flow of pancreatic juice in the main pancreatic duct: evaluation with cine-dynamic MRCP with a spatially selective inversion-recovery (IR) pulse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yasokawa, Kazuya; Ito, Katsuyoshi; Tamada, Tsutomu; Yamamoto, Akira; Hayashida, Minoru; Torigoe, Teruyuki; Tanimoto, Daigo; Higaki, Atsushi; Noda, Yasufumi; Kido, Ayumu [Kawasaki Medical School, Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Kurashiki, Okayama (Japan)

    2016-12-15

    To evaluate the influence of oral ingestion on the secretory flow dynamics of physiological pancreatic juice within the main pancreatic duct in healthy subjects by using cine-dynamic MRCP with spatially-selective inversion-recovery (IR) pulse non-invasively. Thirty-eight healthy subjects were investigated. MRCP with spatially-selective IR pulse was repeated every 15 s for 5 min to acquire a total of 20 images (cine-dynamic MRCP). A set of 20 MRCP images was repeatedly obtained before and after liquid oral ingestion every 7 min (including 2-min interval) for 40 min (a total of seven sets). Secretion grade of pancreatic juice on cine-dynamic MRCP was compared before and after oral ingestion using the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Median secretion grades of pancreatic juice at 5 min (score = 2.15), 12 min (score = 1.95) and 19 min (score = 2.05) after ingestion were significantly higher than that before ingestion (score = 1.40) (P = 0.004, P = 0.032, P = 0.045, respectively). Secretion grade of pancreatic juice showed a maximum peak of 2.15 at 5 min after ingestion. Thereafter, the secretion grade of pancreatic juice tended to gradually decline. Non-invasive cine-dynamic MRCP using spatially-selective IR pulse showed potential for evaluating postprandial changes in the secretory flow dynamics of pancreatic juice as a physiological reaction. (orig.)

  15. Models of cognitive behavior in nuclear power plant personnel. A feasibility study: main report. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Roth, E.M.; Hanes, L.F.

    1986-07-01

    This report contains the results of a feasibility study to determine if the current state of models human cognitive activities can serve as the basis for improved techniques for predicting human error in nuclear power plants emergency operations. Based on the answer to this questions, two subsequent phases of research are planned. Phase II is to develop a model of cognitive activities, and Phase III is to test the model. The feasibility study included an analysis of the cognitive activities that occur in emergency operations and an assessment of the modeling concepts/tools available to capture these cognitive activities. The results indicated that a symbolic processing (or artificial intelligence) model of cognitive activities in nuclear power plants is both desirable and feasible. This cognitive model can be built upon the computational framework provided by an existing artificial intelligence system for medical problem solving called Caduceus. The resulting cognitive model will increase the capability to capture the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessments studies. Volume I summarizes the major findings and conclusions of the study. Volume II provides a complete description of the methods and results, including a synthesis of the cognitive activities that occur during emergency operations, and a literature review on cognitive modeling relevant to nuclear power plants. 112 refs., 10 figs

  16. Hospitality Invites Sociability, Which Builds Cohesion: a Model for the Role of Main Streets in Population Mental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izenberg, Jacob M; Fullilove, Mindy Thompson

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the contribution of main streets to community social cohesion, a factor important to health. Prior work suggests that casual contact in public space, which we call "sociability," facilitates more sustained social bonds in the community. We appropriate the term "hospitality" to describe a main street's propensity to support a density of such social interactions. Hospitality is a result of the integrity and complex contents of the main street and surrounding area. We examine this using a typology we term "box-circle-line" to represent the streetscape (the box), the local neighborhood (the circle), and the relationship to the regional network of streets (the line). Through field visits to 50 main streets in New Jersey and elsewhere, and a systematic qualitative investigation of main streets in a densely interconnected urban region (Essex County, New Jersey), we observed significant variation in main street hospitality, which generally correlated closely with sociability. Physical elements such as street wall, neighborhood elements such as connectivity, inter-community elements such as access and perceived welcome, and socio-political elements such as investment and racial discrimination were identified as relevant to main street hospitality. We describe the box-circle-line as a theoretical model for main street hospitality that links these various factors and provides a viable framework for further research into main street hospitality, particularly with regard to geographic health disparities.

  17. Simulation of Main Plasma Parameters of a Cylindrical Asymmetric Capacitively Coupled Plasma Micro-Thruster using Computational Fluid Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amelia eGreig

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational fluid dynamics (CFD simulations of a radio-frequency (13.56 MHz electro-thermal capacitively coupled plasma (CCP micro-thruster have been performed using the commercial CFD-ACE+ package. Standard operating conditions of a 10 W, 1.5 Torr argon discharge were used to compare with previously obtained experimental results for validation. Results show that the driving force behind plasma production within the thruster is ion-induced secondary electrons ejected from the surface of the discharge tube, accelerated through the sheath to electron temperatures up to 33.5 eV. The secondary electron coefficient was varied to determine the effect on the discharge, with results showing that full breakdown of the discharge did not occur for coefficients coefficients less than or equal to 0.01.

  18. Models of dynamical R-parity violation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Csáki, Csaba; Kuflik, Eric [Department of Physics, LEPP, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Slone, Oren; Volansky, Tomer [Raymond and Beverly Sackler School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 69978 (Israel)

    2015-06-08

    The presence of R-parity violating interactions may relieve the tension between existing LHC constraints and natural supersymmetry. In this paper we lay down the theoretical framework and explore models of dynamical R-parity violation in which the breaking of R-parity is communicated to the visible sector by heavy messenger fields. We find that R-parity violation is often dominated by non-holomorphic operators that have so far been largely ignored, and might require a modification of the existing searches at the LHC. The dynamical origin implies that the effects of such operators are suppressed by the ratio of either the light fermion masses or the supersymmetry breaking scale to the mediation scale, thereby providing a natural explanation for the smallness of R-parity violation. We consider various scenarios, classified by whether R-parity violation, flavor breaking and/or supersymmetry breaking are mediated by the same messenger fields. The most compact case, corresponding to a deformation of the so called flavor mediation scenario, allows for the mediation of supersymmetry breaking, R-parity breaking, and flavor symmetry breaking in a unified manner.

  19. Immersive visualization of dynamic CFD model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comparato, J.R.; Ringel, K.L.; Heath, D.J.

    2004-01-01

    With immersive visualization the engineer has the means for vividly understanding problem causes and discovering opportunities to improve design. Software can generate an interactive world in which collaborators experience the results of complex mathematical simulations such as computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling. Such software, while providing unique benefits over traditional visualization techniques, presents special development challenges. The visualization of large quantities of data interactively requires both significant computational power and shrewd data management. On the computational front, commodity hardware is outperforming large workstations in graphical quality and frame rates. Also, 64-bit commodity computing shows promise in enabling interactive visualization of large datasets. Initial interactive transient visualization methods and examples are presented, as well as development trends in commodity hardware and clustering. Interactive, immersive visualization relies on relevant data being stored in active memory for fast response to user requests. For large or transient datasets, data management becomes a key issue. Techniques for dynamic data loading and data reduction are presented as means to increase visualization performance. (author)

  20. Multicritical dynamics for the +- J Ising Model

    CERN Document Server

    Ozeki, Y

    1998-01-01

    Exact dynamical properties are discussed for the +- J Ising model around the multicritical point (MCP). It is found that the relation of relaxations between the non-equilibrium remanent magnetization m(t) and the equilibrium autocorrelation function q(t) at the MCP is different from that at the pure critical point. The dynamic critical exponent for the ferromagnetic ordering defined by m(t)approx t sup - suplambda sup sub m and that for the spin glass ordering defined by q(t)approx t sup - suplambda sup sub q become identical at the MCP. Accurate numerical calculations for them are performed in two and three dimensions using the non-equilibrium relaxation analysis. The MCP is located at p sub m sub c =0.8872+-0.0008 and the exponent is estimated as lambda sub m =lambda sub q =0.021+-0.001 for the square lattice. They are estimated as p sub m sub c =0.7673+-0.0003 and lambda sub m =lambda sub q =0.090+-0.003 for the simple cubic lattice. (author)

  1. Models of dynamical R-parity violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csáki, Csaba; Kuflik, Eric; Slone, Oren; Volansky, Tomer

    2015-01-01

    The presence of R-parity violating interactions may relieve the tension between existing LHC constraints and natural supersymmetry. In this paper we lay down the theoretical framework and explore models of dynamical R-parity violation in which the breaking of R-parity is communicated to the visible sector by heavy messenger fields. We find that R-parity violation is often dominated by non-holomorphic operators that have so far been largely ignored, and might require a modification of the existing searches at the LHC. The dynamical origin implies that the effects of such operators are suppressed by the ratio of either the light fermion masses or the supersymmetry breaking scale to the mediation scale, thereby providing a natural explanation for the smallness of R-parity violation. We consider various scenarios, classified by whether R-parity violation, flavor breaking and/or supersymmetry breaking are mediated by the same messenger fields. The most compact case, corresponding to a deformation of the so called flavor mediation scenario, allows for the mediation of supersymmetry breaking, R-parity breaking, and flavor symmetry breaking in a unified manner.

  2. Postprandial changes in secretory flow of pancreatic juice in the main pancreatic duct: evaluation with cine-dynamic MRCP with a spatially selective inversion-recovery (IR) pulse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasokawa, Kazuya; Ito, Katsuyoshi; Tamada, Tsutomu; Yamamoto, Akira; Hayashida, Minoru; Torigoe, Teruyuki; Tanimoto, Daigo; Higaki, Atsushi; Noda, Yasufumi; Kido, Ayumu

    2016-12-01

    To evaluate the influence of oral ingestion on the secretory flow dynamics of physiological pancreatic juice within the main pancreatic duct in healthy subjects by using cine-dynamic MRCP with spatially-selective inversion-recovery (IR) pulse non-invasively. Thirty-eight healthy subjects were investigated. MRCP with spatially-selective IR pulse was repeated every 15 s for 5 min to acquire a total of 20 images (cine-dynamic MRCP). A set of 20 MRCP images was repeatedly obtained before and after liquid oral ingestion every 7 min (including 2-min interval) for 40 min (a total of seven sets). Secretion grade of pancreatic juice on cine-dynamic MRCP was compared before and after oral ingestion using the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Median secretion grades of pancreatic juice at 5 min (score = 2.15), 12 min (score = 1.95) and 19 min (score = 2.05) after ingestion were significantly higher than that before ingestion (score = 1.40) (P = 0.004, P = 0.032, P = 0.045, respectively). Secretion grade of pancreatic juice showed a maximum peak of 2.15 at 5 min after ingestion. Thereafter, the secretion grade of pancreatic juice tended to gradually decline. Non-invasive cine-dynamic MRCP using spatially-selective IR pulse showed potential for evaluating postprandial changes in the secretory flow dynamics of pancreatic juice as a physiological reaction. • Secretion grade of pancreatic juice at cine-dynamic MRCP after ingestion was evaluated. • Secretion grade was significantly increased within 19 min after liquid meal ingestion. • Secretion grade showed maximum peak of 2.15 at 5 min after ingestion. • Postprandial changes in pancreatic juice flow can be assessed by cine-dynamic MRCP.

  3. Vortex dynamics in nonrelativistic Abelian Higgs model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Kozhevnikov

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the gauge vortex with arbitrary form of a contour is considered in the framework of the nonrelativistic Abelian Higgs model, including the possibility of the gauge field interaction with the fermion asymmetric background. The equations for the time derivatives of the curvature and the torsion of the vortex contour generalizing the Betchov–Da Rios equations in hydrodynamics, are obtained. They are applied to study the conservation of helicity of the gauge field forming the vortex, twist, and writhe numbers of the vortex contour. It is shown that the conservation of helicity is broken when both terms in the equation of the vortex motion are present, the first due to the exchange of excitations of the phase and modulus of the scalar field and the second one due to the coupling of the gauge field forming the vortex, with the fermion asymmetric background.

  4. Dynamical system analysis of interacting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.

    2018-01-01

    We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.

  5. Coarsening dynamics in the Vicsek model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Supravat; Katyal, Nisha; Das, Dibyendu; Puri, Sanjay

    We numerically study the flocking model introduced by Vicsek et al. (1995) in the coarsening regime. At standard self-propulsion speeds, we find two distinct growth laws for the coupled density and velocity fields. The characteristic length scale of the density domains grows as Lρ (t) t 1 / 4 , while the velocity length scale grows much faster, viz . , Lv (t) t 5 / 6 . The spatial fluctuations in the density and velocity ordering are studied by calculating the two-point correlation function and the structure factor, which show deviations from the well-known Porod's law. This is a natural consequence of scattering from irregular morphologies that dynamically arise in the system. In contrast, at lower self-propulsion speeds, the morphology is distinct, and as a result a new set of scaling exponents emerge. Most strikingly, the velocity order follows the density order with Lρ (t) Lv (t) t 1 / 4 .

  6. Molecules and Models The molecular structures of main group element compounds

    CERN Document Server

    Haaland, Arne

    2008-01-01

    This book provides a systematic description of the molecular structures and bonding in simple compounds of the main group elements with particular emphasis on bond distances, bond energies and coordination geometries. The description includes the structures of hydrogen, halogen and methyl derivatives of the elements in each group, some of these molecules are ionic, some polar covalent. The survey of molecules whose structures conform to well-established trends is followed byrepresentative examples of molecules that do not conform. We also describe electron donor-acceptor and hydrogen bonded co

  7. Design and Manufacture of a Main Beam Quadrupole Model for CLIC

    CERN Document Server

    Modena, Michele

    2012-01-01

    The Main Beam Quadrupole (MBQ) magnets represent one of the most populated families of Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) magnets. In total more than 4000 units of 4 different types with the same bore radius of 5 mm and field gradient of 200 T/m but with different magnetic length are needed. An extremely high precision and mechanical stability are necessary in order to fulfill the magnetic and stabilization requirements as defined in the beam optics studies. A magnet design has been proposed and several quadrupole prototypes of different length have been produced targeting a high mechanical precision. Magnetic calculation, constructional design and the first test results are presented.

  8. Bar Harbor, Maine 1/3 Arc-second MWH Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  9. Bar Harbor, Maine 1/3 Arc-second NAVD 88 Coastal Digital Elevation Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) is building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for select U.S. coastal regions. These integrated...

  10. Persistent agents in Axelrod's social dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reia, Sandro M.; Neves, Ubiraci P. C.

    2016-01-01

    Axelrod's model of social dynamics has been studied under the effect of external media. Here we study the formation of cultural domains in the model by introducing persistent agents. These are agents whose cultural traits are not allowed to change but may be spread through local neighborhood. In the absence of persistent agents, the system is known to present a transition from a monocultural to a multicultural regime at some critical Q (number of traits). Our results reveal a dependence of critical Q on the occupation probability p of persistent agents and we obtain the phase diagram of the model in the (p,Q) -plane. The critical locus is explained by the competition of two opposite forces named here barrier and bonding effects. Such forces are verified to be caused by non-persistent agents which adhere (adherent agents) to the set of traits of persistent ones. The adherence (concentration of adherent agents) as a function of p is found to decay for constant Q. Furthermore, adherence as a function of Q is found to decay as a power law with constant p.

  11. Patterns and individual-based modeling of spatial competition within two main components of Neotropical mangrove ecosystems.

    OpenAIRE

    Piou, Cyril

    2007-01-01

    The main focus of the thesis was to look at the role of competition in shaping the spatial organization of two main components of Neotropical mangrove ecosystems. The first component was the Caribbean mangrove tree community. The second was populations of an ecologically and economically important mangrove burrowing crab in North-Brazil: Ucides cordatus. These two components were studied in two respective parts with one field and two individual-based modeling studies each. The two individual-...

  12. CFD modeling of the IRIS pressurizer dynamic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanz, Ronny R.; Montesinos, Maria E.; Garcia, Carlos; Bueno, Elizabeth D.; Mazaira, Leorlen R., E-mail: rsanz@instec.cu, E-mail: mmontesi@instec.cu, E-mail: cgh@instec.cu, E-mail: leored1984@gmail.com [Instituto Superior de Tecnologias y Ciencias Aplicadas (InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Bezerra, Jair L.; Lira, Carlos A.B. Oliveira, E-mail: jair.lima@ufpe.br, E-mail: cabol@ufpe.br [Universida Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. de Energia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    Integral layout of nuclear reactor IRIS makes possible the elimination of the spray system, which is usually used to mitigate in-surge transient and also help to Boron homogenization. The study of transients with deficiencies in the Boron homogenization in this technology is very important, because they can cause disturbances in the reactor power and insert a strong reactivity in the core. The detailed knowledge of the behavior of multiphase multicomponent flows is challenging due to the complex phenomena and interactions at the interface. In this context, the CFD modeling is employed in the design of equipment in the nuclear industry as it allows predicting accidents or predicting their performance in dissimilar applications. The aim of the present research is to model the IRIS pressurizer's dynamic using the commercial CFD code CFX. A symmetric tri dimensional model equivalent to 1/8 of the total geometry was adopted to reduce mesh size and minimize processing time. The model considers the coexistence of four phases and also takes into account the heat losses. The relationships for interfacial mass, energy, and momentum transport are programmed and incorporated into CFX. Moreover, two subdomains and several additional variables are defined to monitoring the boron dilution sequences and condensation-evaporation rates in different control volumes. For transient states a non - equilibrium stratification in the pressurizer is considered. This paper discusses the model developed and the behavior of the system for representative transients sequences. The results of analyzed transients of IRIS can be applied to the design of pressurizer internal structures and components. (author)

  13. A Review of Hemolysis Prediction Models for Computational Fluid Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hai; Engel, Sebastian; Janiga, Gábor; Thévenin, Dominique

    2017-07-01

    Flow-induced hemolysis is a crucial issue for many biomedical applications; in particular, it is an essential issue for the development of blood-transporting devices such as left ventricular assist devices, and other types of blood pumps. In order to estimate red blood cell (RBC) damage in blood flows, many models have been proposed in the past. Most models have been validated by their respective authors. However, the accuracy and the validity range of these models remains unclear. In this work, the most established hemolysis models compatible with computational fluid dynamics of full-scale devices are described and assessed by comparing two selected reference experiments: a simple rheometric flow and a more complex hemodialytic flow through a needle. The quantitative comparisons show very large deviations concerning hemolysis predictions, depending on the model and model parameter. In light of the current results, two simple power-law models deliver the best compromise between computational efficiency and obtained accuracy. Finally, hemolysis has been computed in an axial blood pump. The reconstructed geometry of a HeartMate II shows that hemolysis occurs mainly at the tip and leading edge of the rotor blades, as well as at the leading edge of the diffusor vanes. © 2017 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. A new solar wind-driven global dynamic plasmapause model: 2. Model and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Fei; Zhang, Xiao-Xin; Lin, Rui-Lin; Fok, Mei-Ching; Katus, Roxanne M.; Liemohn, Mike W.; Gallagher, Dennis L.; Nakano, Shinya

    2017-07-01

    A new solar wind-driven global dynamic plasmapause (NSW-GDP) model has been constructed based on the largest currently available database containing 49,119 plasmapause crossing locations and 3957 plasmapause profiles (corresponding to 48,899 plasmapause locations), from 18 satellites during 1977-2015 covering four solar cycles. This model is compiled by the Levenberg-Marquardt method for nonlinear multiparameter fitting and parameterized by VSW, BZ, SYM-H, and AE. Continuous and smooth magnetic local time dependence controlled mainly by the solar wind-driven convection electric field ESW is also embedded in this model. Compared with previous empirical models based on our database, this new model improves the forecasting accuracy and capability for the global plasmapause. The diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of the plasmapause can be captured by the new model. The NSW-GDP model can potentially be used to forecast the global plasmapause shape with upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and corresponding predicted values of SYM-H and AE and can also be used as input parameters for other inner magnetospheric coupling models, such as dynamic radiation belt and ring current models and even MHD models.

  15. Computational fluid dynamic modeling of fluidized-bed polymerization reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rokkam, Ram [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Polyethylene is one of the most widely used plastics, and over 60 million tons are produced worldwide every year. Polyethylene is obtained by the catalytic polymerization of ethylene in gas and liquid phase reactors. The gas phase processes are more advantageous, and use fluidized-bed reactors for production of polyethylene. Since they operate so close to the melting point of the polymer, agglomeration is an operational concern in all slurry and gas polymerization processes. Electrostatics and hot spot formation are the main factors that contribute to agglomeration in gas-phase processes. Electrostatic charges in gas phase polymerization fluidized bed reactors are known to influence the bed hydrodynamics, particle elutriation, bubble size, bubble shape etc. Accumulation of electrostatic charges in the fluidized-bed can lead to operational issues. In this work a first-principles electrostatic model is developed and coupled with a multi-fluid computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model to understand the effect of electrostatics on the dynamics of a fluidized-bed. The multi-fluid CFD model for gas-particle flow is based on the kinetic theory of granular flows closures. The electrostatic model is developed based on a fixed, size-dependent charge for each type of particle (catalyst, polymer, polymer fines) phase. The combined CFD model is first verified using simple test cases, validated with experiments and applied to a pilot-scale polymerization fluidized-bed reactor. The CFD model reproduced qualitative trends in particle segregation and entrainment due to electrostatic charges observed in experiments. For the scale up of fluidized bed reactor, filtered models are developed and implemented on pilot scale reactor.

  16. Kinematical and Dynamical Modeling of Elliptical Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamon, G. A.; Łokas, E.; Dekel, A.; Stoehr, F.; Cox, T. J.

    Elements of kinematical and dynamical modeling of elliptical galaxies are presented. In projection, NFW models resemble Sérsic models, but with a very narrow range of shapes (m=3±1). The total density profile of ellipticals cannot be NFW-like because the predicted local M/L and aperture velocity dispersion within an effective radius (R_e) are much lower than observed. Stars must then dominate ellipticals out to a few R_e. Fitting an NFW model to the total density profile of Sérsic+NFW (stars+dark matter [DM]) ellipticals results in very high concentration parameters, as found by X-ray observers. Kinematical modeling of ellipticals assuming an isotropic NFW DM model underestimates M/L at the virial radius by a factor of 1.6 to 2.4, because dissipationless ΛCDM halos have slightly different density profiles and slightly radial velocity anisotropy. In N-body+gas simulations of ellipticals as merger remnants of spirals embedded in DM halos, the slope of the DM density profile is steeper when the initial spiral galaxies are gas-rich. The Hansen & Moore (2006) relation between anisotropy and the slope of the density profile breaks down for gas and DM, but the stars follow an analogous relation with slightly less radial anisotropies for a given density slope. Using kurtosis (h_4) to infer anisotropy in ellipticals is dangerous, as h4 is also sensitive to small levels of rotation. The stationary Jeans equation provides accurate masses out to 8 R_e. The discrepancy between the modeling of Romanowsky et al. (2003), indicating a dearth of DM in ellipticals, and the simulations analyzed by Dekel et al. (2005), which match the spectroscopic observations of ellipticals, is partly due to radial anisotropy and to observing oblate ellipticals face-on. However, one of the 15 solutions to the orbit modeling of Romanowsky et al. is found to have an amount and concentration of DM consistent with ΛCDM predictions.

  17. The spinning Astrid-2 satellite used for modeling the Earth's main magnetic field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merayo, José M.G.; Jørgensen, P.S.; Risbo, T.

    2002-01-01

    , and therefore mapping of the Earth's magnetic field was possible. The spacecraft spins about a highly stable axis in space. This fact and the globally distributed data make the magnetic measurements well suited for the estimate of a magnetic field model at the spacecraft altitude (about 1000 km). This paper...... to better than 5 nT(rms) for latitudes Equatorward of 50degrees. Several methods for field modeling are discussed in this paper under the assumption that the direction of the spin axis in inertial space is nearly constant, and this assumption is corroborated by the observations. The approximate inertial...

  18. Dynamic pricing models for electronic business

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Dynamic pricing is the dynamic adjustment of prices to consumers depending upon the value these customers attribute to a product or service. Today's digital economy is ready for dynamic pricing; however recent research has shown that the prices will have to be adjusted in fairly sophisticated ways, based on sound ...

  19. Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Røge, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted......Dynamic functional connectivity (FC) has in recent years become a topic of interest in the neuroimaging community. Several models and methods exist for both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG), and the results point towards the conclusion that FC exhibits...... in Bayesian statistical modeling we use the predictive likelihood to investigate if the model can discriminate between a motor task and rest both within and across subjects. We further investigate what drives dynamic states using the model on the entire data collated across subjects and task/rest. We find...

  20. Pion production model - connection between dynamics and quark models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, T.-S. H.; Sato, T.

    2000-05-17

    The authors discuss the difficulties in testing the hadron models by using the N{sup *} parameters extracted from the empirical amplitude analyses of the {pi}N and {gamma}N reaction data. As an alternative or perhaps a more advantageous approach, they present a Hamiltonian formulation that can relate the pion production dynamics and the constituent quark models of N{sup *} structure. The application of the approach in investigating the {Delta} and N{sup *}(S{sub 11}) excitations is reviewed. It is found that while the {Delta} excitation can be described satisfactory, the {pi}N scattering in S{sub 11} channel can not be described by the constituent quark models based on either the one-gluon-exchange or one-meson-exchange mechanisms. A phenomenological quark-quark potential has been constructed to reproduce the S{sub 11} amplitude.

  1. Quantum Dynamics in the HMF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plestid, Ryan; O'Dell, Duncan

    2017-04-01

    The Hamiltonian Mean Field (HMF) model represents a paradigm in the study of long-range interactions but has never been realized in a lab. Recently Shutz and Morigi (PRL 113) have come close but ultimately fallen short. Their proposal relied on cavity-induced interactions between atoms. If a design using cold atoms is to be successful, an understanding of quantum effects is essential. I will outline the natural quantum generalization of the HMF assuming a BEC by using a generalized Gross-Pitaevskii equation (gGPE). I will show how quantum effects modify features which are well understood in the classical model. More specifically, by working in the semi-classical regime (strong interparticle interactions) we can identify the universal features predicted by catastrophe theory dressed with quantum interference effects. The stationary states of gGPE can be solved exactly and are found to be described by self-consistent Mathieu functions. Finally, I will discuss the connection between the classical description of the dynamics in terms of the Vlassov equation, and the gGPE. We would like to thank the Government of Ontario's OGS program, NSERC, and the Perimeter Institute of Theoretical Physics.

  2. Improving Bioenergy Crops through Dynamic Metabolic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojdeh Faraji

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Enormous advances in genetics and metabolic engineering have made it possible, in principle, to create new plants and crops with improved yield through targeted molecular alterations. However, while the potential is beyond doubt, the actual implementation of envisioned new strains is often difficult, due to the diverse and complex nature of plants. Indeed, the intrinsic complexity of plants makes intuitive predictions difficult and often unreliable. The hope for overcoming this challenge is that methods of data mining and computational systems biology may become powerful enough that they could serve as beneficial tools for guiding future experimentation. In the first part of this article, we review the complexities of plants, as well as some of the mathematical and computational methods that have been used in the recent past to deepen our understanding of crops and their potential yield improvements. In the second part, we present a specific case study that indicates how robust models may be employed for crop improvements. This case study focuses on the biosynthesis of lignin in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum. Switchgrass is considered one of the most promising candidates for the second generation of bioenergy production, which does not use edible plant parts. Lignin is important in this context, because it impedes the use of cellulose in such inedible plant materials. The dynamic model offers a platform for investigating the pathway behavior in transgenic lines. In particular, it allows predictions of lignin content and composition in numerous genetic perturbation scenarios.

  3. Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2015-01-01

    For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...

  4. Dynamics in Higher Education Politics: A Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauko, Jaakko

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a model for analysing dynamics in higher education politics (DHEP). Theoretically the model draws on the conceptual history of political contingency, agenda-setting theories and previous research on higher education dynamics. According to the model, socio-historical complexity can best be analysed along two dimensions: the…

  5. Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, James M

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...

  6. submitter Dynamical Models of a Wire Scanner

    CERN Document Server

    Barjau, Ana; Dehning, Bernd

    2016-01-01

    The accuracy of the beam profile measurements achievable by the current wire scanners at CERN is limited by the vibrations of their mechanical parts. In particular, the vibrations of the carbon wire represent the major source of wire position uncertainty which limits the beam profile measurement accuracy. In the coming years, due to the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) luminosity upgrade, a wire traveling speed up to 20 $m s^{−1}$ and a position measurement accuracy of the order of 1 μm will be required. A new wire scanner design based on the understanding of the wire vibration origin is therefore needed. We present the models developed to understand the main causes of the wire vibrations observed in an existing wire scanner. The development and tuning of those models are based on measurements and tests performed on that CERN proton synchrotron (PS) scanner. The final model for the (wire + fork) system has six degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The wire equations contain three different excitation terms: inertia...

  7. Nonlinear dynamics new directions models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ugalde, Edgardo

    2015-01-01

    This book, along with its companion volume, Nonlinear Dynamics New Directions: Theoretical Aspects, covers topics ranging from fractal analysis to very specific applications of the theory of dynamical systems to biology. This second volume contains mostly new applications of the theory of dynamical systems to both engineering and biology. The first volume is devoted to fundamental aspects and includes a number of important new contributions as well as some review articles that emphasize new development prospects. The topics addressed in the two volumes include a rigorous treatment of fluctuations in dynamical systems, topics in fractal analysis, studies of the transient dynamics in biological networks, synchronization in lasers, and control of chaotic systems, among others. This book also: ·         Develops applications of nonlinear dynamics on a diversity of topics such as patterns of synchrony in neuronal networks, laser synchronization, control of chaotic systems, and the study of transient dynam...

  8. MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.

  9. A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daxin Tian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.

  10. Dynamic modelling and analysis of space webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yang; Baoyin, HeXi; Li, JunFeng

    2011-04-01

    Future space missions demand operations on large flexible structures, for example, space webs, the lightweight cable nets deployable in space, which can serve as platforms for very large structures or be used to capture orbital objects. The interest in research on space webs is likely to increase in the future with the development of promising applications such as Furoshiki sat-ellite of JAXA, Robotic Geostationary Orbit Restorer (ROGER) of ESA and Grapple, Retrieve And Secure Payload (GRASP) of NASA. Unlike high-tensioned nets in civil engineering, space webs may be low-tensioned or tensionless, and extremely flexible, owing to the microgravity in the orbit and the lack of support components, which may cause computational difficulties. Mathematical models are necessary in the analysis of space webs, especially in the conceptual design and evaluation for prototypes. A full three-dimensional finite element (FE) model was developed in this work. Trivial truss elements were adopted to reduce the computational complexity. Considering cable is a compression-free material and its tensile stiffness is also variable, we introduced the cable material constitutive relationship to work out an accurate and feasible model for prototype analysis and design. In the static analysis, the stress distribution and global deformation of the webs were discussed to get access to the knowledge of strength of webs with different types of meshes. In the dynamic analysis, special attention was paid to the impact problem. The max stress and global deformation were investigated. The simulation results indicate the interesting phenomenon which may be worth further research.

  11. Nocturnal urban heat island in Lisbon (Portugal): main features and modelling attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcoforado, M.-J.; Andrade, H.

    2006-02-01

    In recent years, several studies have examined the Lisbon urban climate. A central conclusion is the existence of a nocturnal urban heat island (mean ΔTu-r = 2.5 °C). The aim of this paper is to summarise several attempts carried out in the last decade to interpolate nocturnal air temperatures across Lisbon, in order to be able to draw thermal maps as accurately as possible. This study refers only to clear nights. Stepwise multiple regression and a Geographic Information System were used to model the relation between air temperature and parameters related to land-use and topography. The different regression models (coefficients of determination between 0.68 and 0.92) show that canopy layer air temperature depends on sky-view factor, building height and percentage of built-up area, but also to a great extend on mesoclimatic geographic factors such as altitude, topography and distance from the Tagus River. Examples of four frequently encountered nocturnal air temperature patterns are presented, each corresponds to a different weather type. This method employed could prove useful in drawing climatic maps that may be of use in master plans of urban municipalities.

  12. Numerical investigation of flow past rod arrays for determining main parameters of the integral model of turbulence: longitudinal flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasov, M.N.; Korsun, A.S.; Maslov, Yu.A.; Merinov, I.G.; Kharitonov, V.S.

    2013-01-01

    Systematic numerical calculations have been performed for studying the longitudinal flow past an array of rods with a corridor or chess-board packing in a broad range of flow Reynolds numbers. Structures with the porosity varied in a broad range have been studied and the main parameters of the proposed integral model of turbulence are determined [ru

  13. THE MODEL OF IDENTIFICATION OF THE PROBLEM MAIN CAUSE SET OF VARIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Miric

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The term Lean has been widely used in today's product manufacturing and service delivery environments. In its fundamental nature the Lean Philosophy continuously strives for elimination of any kind of waste that exists in such environments. There are six basic strategies [1] related to the Lean Philosophy: Workplace Safety & Order & Cleanliness, JIT production, Six Sigma Quality, Empowered Teams, Visual Management and Pursuit of Perfection. On the journey of sustaining the lean supporting strategies there are many problems, or opportunities as Lean Practitioners call them. The value of some strategies highly depends on the efficiency of the problem solving techniques used to overcome the emerging issues. JIT production is difficult to imagine without a system that supports a high level of operational readiness with equipment uptime above 98%. Six Sigma level of quality, even when built into a product or system design, still undergoes the challenges of day to day operations and the variability brought with it. This variability is the source of waste and lean systems culture strives for continuous reduction of it. Empowered Teams properly trained to recognize the real cause of the problems and their Pursuit of Perfection culture are one of the corner stones of Lean Philosophy sustainability. Their ability to work with Problem Solvers and understand the difference between the "cure of the symptoms" approach versus "problem root cause identification" is one of the distinctions between Lean and Mass operations. Among the series of Statistical Engineering To ols this paper will show one of the techniques that proved to be powerful in the identification of the Set of Variation that contains the Main Cause of the new problems that arise in daily operations. This technique is called Multi - Vari. Multi - Vari is th e statistical engineering method used to analyze the set of data acquired in an organized manner. The set could be analyzed graphically or

  14. Modelling dynamic processes in a nuclear reactor by state change modal method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avvakumov, A. V.; Strizhov, V. F.; Vabishchevich, P. N.; Vasilev, A. O.

    2017-12-01

    Modelling of dynamic processes in nuclear reactors is carried out, mainly, using the multigroup neutron diffusion approximation. The basic model includes a multidimensional set of coupled parabolic equations and ordinary differential equations. Dynamic processes are modelled by a successive change of the reactor states. It is considered that the transition from one state to another occurs promptly. In the modal method the approximate solution is represented as eigenfunction expansion. The numerical-analytical method is based on the use of dominant time-eigenvalues of a group diffusion model taking into account delayed neutrons.

  15. System Dynamics Modeling in Entrepreneurship Research: A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Zali

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics is a strategic approach for modeling complex systems and analyzing their behavior. Dynamic behavior in entrepreneurial system can be modeled using System Dynamics Approach and dynamic hypotheses about the system`s behavior can be proposed and tested using simulation and computer aided tools. However, as the review of literature shows, studies which link system dynamics modeling with entrepreneurship are rare and fragmented. This article presents a review of studies on the subject followed by integration and discussion on main research issues that have been the focus of previous studies. The main aim of this review is to categorize the available research related to the application of system dynamics modeling in entrepreneurship to integrate research and enable recommendations for future research. The Results reveal that the previous research could be categorized under a two dimensional taxonomy composed of level of analysis and level of modeling. The Level of analysis has three categories: micro level, meso level and macro level. The Level of modeling has six hierarchical levels. This study identifies several gaps in the literature and discusses the future directions in this field.

  16. Modeling the metastable dynamics of correlated structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakirov, Alexey M.; Tsibulsky, Sergey V.; Antipov, Andrey E.; Shchadilova, Yulia E.; Rubtsov, Alexey N.

    2015-01-01

    Metastable quantum dynamics of an asymmetric triangular cluster that is coupled to a reservoir is investigated. The dynamics is governed by bath-mediated transitions, which in part require a thermal activation process. The decay rate is controlled by tuning the excitation spectrum of the frustrated cluster. We use the master equation approach and construct transition operators in terms of many-body states. We analyze dynamics of observables and reveal metastability of an excited state and of a magnetically polarized ground state.

  17. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Analyses in Support of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Heat Exchanger (HX) Vane Cracking Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Roberto; Benjamin, Theodore G.; Cornelison, J.; Fredmonski, A. J.

    1993-01-01

    Integration issues involved with installing the alternate turbopump (ATP) High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump (HPOTP) into the SSME have raised questions regarding the flow in the HPOTP turnaround duct (TAD). Steady-state Navier-Stokes CFD analyses have been performed by NASA and Pratt & Whitney (P&W) to address these questions. The analyses have consisted of two-dimensional axisymmetric calculations done at Marshall Space Flight Center and three-dimensional calculations performed at P&W. These analyses have identified flowfield differences between the baseline ATP and the Rocketdyne configurations. The results show that the baseline ATP configuration represents a more severe environment to the inner HX guide vane. This vane has limited life when tested in conjunction with the ATP but infinite life when tested with the current SSME HPOTP. The CFD results have helped interpret test results and have been used to assess proposed redesigns. This paper includes details of the axisymmetric model, its results, and its contribution towards resolving the problem.

  18. Hybrid Dynamical Systems Modeling, Stability, and Robustness

    CERN Document Server

    Goebel, Rafal; Teel, Andrew R

    2012-01-01

    Hybrid dynamical systems exhibit continuous and instantaneous changes, having features of continuous-time and discrete-time dynamical systems. Filled with a wealth of examples to illustrate concepts, this book presents a complete theory of robust asymptotic stability for hybrid dynamical systems that is applicable to the design of hybrid control algorithms--algorithms that feature logic, timers, or combinations of digital and analog components. With the tools of modern mathematical analysis, Hybrid Dynamical Systems unifies and generalizes earlier developments in continuous-time and discret

  19. External models of frictional interaction dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyurin, A. E.; Ismailov, G. M.; Ikonnikova, K. V.; Sarkisov, Y. S.

    2017-10-01

    This investigation suggests a method used to determine the evolution of metallic wear and friction by sliding. The friction of steel moving over brass was taken as an example. The problem of external dynamics friction is investigated through the definition of the dynamic characteristics such as damping factor and natural frequency. Some certain automatic control methods were applied for sliding friction contact, including parametric identification, ARX simulation and Newton’s dynamic equation. The suggested approach allows using amplitude-frequency characteristics to assess the dynamic factors (coefficients) under friction interaction. The research findings indicate that the proposed method allows monitoring the evolution of metallic wear and friction.

  20. Modelling dynamics with context-free grammars

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Huerta, Juan-M.; Jiménez-Hernández, Hugo; Herrera-Navarro, Ana-M.; Hernández-Díaz, Teresa; Terol-Villalobos, Ivan

    2014-03-01

    This article presents a strategy to model the dynamics performed by vehicles in a freeway. The proposal consists on encode the movement as a set of finite states. A watershed-based segmentation is used to localize regions with high-probability of motion. Each state represents a proportion of a camera projection in a two-dimensional space, where each state is associated to a symbol, such that any combination of symbols is expressed as a language. Starting from a sequence of symbols through a linear algorithm a free-context grammar is inferred. This grammar represents a hierarchical view of common sequences observed into the scene. Most probable grammar rules express common rules associated to normal movement behavior. Less probable rules express themselves a way to quantify non-common behaviors and they might need more attention. Finally, all sequences of symbols that does not match with the grammar rules, may express itself uncommon behaviors (abnormal). The grammar inference is built with several sequences of images taken from a freeway. Testing process uses the sequence of symbols emitted by the scenario, matching the grammar rules with common freeway behaviors. The process of detect abnormal/normal behaviors is managed as the task of verify if any word generated by the scenario is recognized by the grammar.

  1. Modeling proteasome dynamics in Parkinson's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sneppen, Kim; Lizana, Ludvig; Jensen, Mogens H; Pigolotti, Simone; Otzen, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    In Parkinson's disease (PD), there is evidence that α-synuclein (αSN) aggregation is coupled to dysfunctional or overburdened protein quality control systems, in particular the ubiquitin–proteasome system. Here, we develop a simple dynamical model for the on-going conflict between αSN aggregation and the maintenance of a functional proteasome in the healthy cell, based on the premise that proteasomal activity can be titrated out by mature αSN fibrils and their protofilament precursors. In the presence of excess proteasomes the cell easily maintains homeostasis. However, when the ratio between the available proteasome and the αSN protofilaments is reduced below a threshold level, we predict a collapse of homeostasis and onset of oscillations in the proteasome concentration. Depleted proteasome opens for accumulation of oligomers. Our analysis suggests that the onset of PD is associated with a proteasome population that becomes occupied in periodic degradation of aggregates. This behavior is found to be the general state of a proteasome/chaperone system under pressure, and suggests new interpretations of other diseases where protein aggregation could stress elements of the protein quality control system

  2. Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Gabriela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

  3. Dynamics of the Random Field Ising Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian

    The Random Field Ising Model (RFIM) is a general tool to study disordered systems. Crackling noise is generated when disordered systems are driven by external forces, spanning a broad range of sizes. Systems with different microscopic structures such as disordered mag- nets and Earth's crust have been studied under the RFIM. In this thesis, we investigated the domain dynamics and critical behavior in two dipole-coupled Ising ferromagnets Nd2Fe14B and LiHoxY 1-xF4. With Tc well above room temperature, Nd2Fe14B has shown reversible disorder when exposed to an external transverse field and crosses between two universality classes in the strong and weak disorder limits. Besides tunable disorder, LiHoxY1-xF4 has shown quantum tunneling effects arising from quantum fluctuations, providing another mechanism for domain reversal. Universality within and beyond power law dependence on avalanche size and energy were studied in LiHo0.65Y0.35 F4.

  4. Intestinal Transportations of Main Chemical Compositions of Polygoni Multiflori Radix in Caco-2 Cell Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Context. Polygoni Multiflori Radix (PMR is originated from the root of Polygonum multiflorum Thunb. and used in oriental countries for centuries. However, little researches pay close attention to the absorption of its major constituents. Objective. Transepithelial transport of TSG, RL, PL, and four anthraquinones is carried out. Materials and Methods. Caco-2 cell monolayer, which represented a well-established model for the study of intestinal transport of nutrients and xenobiotics, was used in this paper. Results. The apparent permeability coefficients (Papp in the Caco-2 cell monolayers were TSG (2.372 × 10−9 < EG (2.391 × 10−9 < EN (2.483 × 10−9 < PL (4.917 × 10−9 < RN (1.707 × 10−8 < RL (1.778 × 10−8 < AE (1.952 × 10−8. Thus, RN, RL, and AE were considered partly absorbed, while other constituents were hardly absorbed. Discussion and Conclusion. Glycosides showed poor permeabilities than aglycones. In the meantime, TSG and EN gave out poor recovery rates in this assay, which indicated that TSG and EN may accumulate or metabolise in the Caco-2 cells. In silico prediction indicated that Gibbs energy (r=0.751, p<0.05 and heat of form (r=0.701, p<0.05 were strongly positively correlated with Papp.

  5. Intestinal Transportations of Main Chemical Compositions of Polygoni Multiflori Radix in Caco-2 Cell Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Lin, Pei; Li, Yunfei; Mao, Xiaojian; Bao, Getuzhaori; Zhao, Ronghua

    2014-01-01

    Context. Polygoni Multiflori Radix (PMR) is originated from the root of Polygonum multiflorum Thunb. and used in oriental countries for centuries. However, little researches pay close attention to the absorption of its major constituents. Objective. Transepithelial transport of TSG, RL, PL, and four anthraquinones is carried out. Materials and Methods. Caco-2 cell monolayer, which represented a well-established model for the study of intestinal transport of nutrients and xenobiotics, was used in this paper. Results. The apparent permeability coefficients (P app) in the Caco-2 cell monolayers were TSG (2.372 × 10−9) < EG (2.391 × 10−9) < EN (2.483 × 10−9) < PL (4.917 × 10−9) < RN (1.707 × 10−8) < RL (1.778 × 10−8) < AE (1.952 × 10−8). Thus, RN, RL, and AE were considered partly absorbed, while other constituents were hardly absorbed. Discussion and Conclusion. Glycosides showed poor permeabilities than aglycones. In the meantime, TSG and EN gave out poor recovery rates in this assay, which indicated that TSG and EN may accumulate or metabolise in the Caco-2 cells. In silico prediction indicated that Gibbs energy (r = 0.751, p < 0.05) and heat of form (r = 0.701, p < 0.05) were strongly positively correlated with P app. PMID:24693324

  6. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  7. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  8. Dynamic causal models of neural system dynamics: current state ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2006-09-28

    Sep 28, 2006 ... 3. Principles of DCM. An important limitation of previous methods for determining effective connectivity from functional imaging data, e.g. structural equation modelling (McIntosh and Gonzalez-. Lima 1994; Büchel and Friston 1997) or multivariate autoregressive models (Goebel et al 2003; Harrison et al.

  9. Main transition in the Pink membrane model: finite-size scaling and the influence of surface roughness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Sina; Vink, R L C

    2012-06-01

    We consider the main transition in single-component membranes using computer simulations of the Pink model [D. A. Pink et al., Biochemistry 19, 349 (1980)]. We first show that the accepted parameters of the Pink model yield a main transition temperature that is systematically below experimental values. This resolves an issue that was first pointed out by Corvera and co-workers [Phys. Rev. E 47, 696 (1993)]. In order to yield the correct transition temperature, the strength of the van der Waals coupling in the Pink model must be increased; by using finite-size scaling, a set of optimal values is proposed. We also provide finite-size scaling evidence that the Pink model belongs to the universality class of the two-dimensional Ising model. This finding holds irrespective of the number of conformational states. Finally, we address the main transition in the presence of quenched disorder, which may arise in situations where the membrane is deposited on a rough support. In this case, we observe a stable multidomain structure of gel and fluid domains, and the absence of a sharp transition in the thermodynamic limit.

  10. Modelling and mapping tick dynamics using volunteered observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Martí, Irene; Zurita-Milla, Raúl; van Vliet, Arnold J H; Takken, Willem

    2017-11-14

    Tick populations and tick-borne infections have steadily increased since the mid-1990s posing an ever-increasing risk to public health. Yet, modelling tick dynamics remains challenging because of the lack of data and knowledge on this complex phenomenon. Here we present an approach to model and map tick dynamics using volunteered data. This approach is illustrated with 9 years of data collected by a group of trained volunteers who sampled active questing ticks (AQT) on a monthly basis and for 15 locations in the Netherlands. We aimed at finding the main environmental drivers of AQT at multiple time-scales, and to devise daily AQT maps at the national level for 2014. Tick dynamics is a complex ecological problem driven by biotic (e.g. pathogens, wildlife, humans) and abiotic (e.g. weather, landscape) factors. We enriched the volunteered AQT collection with six types of weather variables (aggregated at 11 temporal scales), three types of satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover, and mast years. Then, we applied a feature engineering process to derive a set of 101 features to characterize the conditions that yielded a particular count of AQT on a date and location. To devise models predicting the AQT, we use a time-aware Random Forest regression method, which is suitable to find non-linear relationships in complex ecological problems, and provides an estimation of the most important features to predict the AQT. We trained a model capable of fitting AQT with reduced statistical metrics. The multi-temporal study on the feature importance indicates that variables linked to water levels in the atmosphere (i.e. evapotranspiration, relative humidity) consistently showed a higher explanatory power than previous works using temperature. As a product of this study, we are able of mapping daily tick dynamics at the national level. This study paves the way towards the design of new applications in the fields of environmental research, nature management, and public

  11. Modelling and mapping tick dynamics using volunteered observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Garcia-Martí

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tick populations and tick-borne infections have steadily increased since the mid-1990s posing an ever-increasing risk to public health. Yet, modelling tick dynamics remains challenging because of the lack of data and knowledge on this complex phenomenon. Here we present an approach to model and map tick dynamics using volunteered data. This approach is illustrated with 9 years of data collected by a group of trained volunteers who sampled active questing ticks (AQT on a monthly basis and for 15 locations in the Netherlands. We aimed at finding the main environmental drivers of AQT at multiple time-scales, and to devise daily AQT maps at the national level for 2014. Method Tick dynamics is a complex ecological problem driven by biotic (e.g. pathogens, wildlife, humans and abiotic (e.g. weather, landscape factors. We enriched the volunteered AQT collection with six types of weather variables (aggregated at 11 temporal scales, three types of satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover, and mast years. Then, we applied a feature engineering process to derive a set of 101 features to characterize the conditions that yielded a particular count of AQT on a date and location. To devise models predicting the AQT, we use a time-aware Random Forest regression method, which is suitable to find non-linear relationships in complex ecological problems, and provides an estimation of the most important features to predict the AQT. Results We trained a model capable of fitting AQT with reduced statistical metrics. The multi-temporal study on the feature importance indicates that variables linked to water levels in the atmosphere (i.e. evapotranspiration, relative humidity consistently showed a higher explanatory power than previous works using temperature. As a product of this study, we are able of mapping daily tick dynamics at the national level. Conclusions This study paves the way towards the design of new applications in the fields

  12. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) w...

  13. Implementation of a model based fault detection and diagnosis for actuation faults of the Space Shuttle main engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duyar, A.; Guo, T.-H.; Merrill, W.; Musgrave, J.

    1992-01-01

    In a previous study, Guo, Merrill and Duyar, 1990, reported a conceptual development of a fault detection and diagnosis system for actuation faults of the space shuttle main engine. This study, which is a continuation of the previous work, implements the developed fault detection and diagnosis scheme for the real time actuation fault diagnosis of the space shuttle main engine. The scheme will be used as an integral part of an intelligent control system demonstration experiment at NASA Lewis. The diagnosis system utilizes a model based method with real time identification and hypothesis testing for actuation, sensor, and performance degradation faults.

  14. A System Dynamic Model of Leader Emergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-03-01

    Judge, 2004; Judge, Bono, Ilies, & Gerhardt, 2002; Eagly, Johanneses-Schmidt, & Van Engen , 2003; Taggar, Hackett, & Saha, 1999; Stogdill, 1948...System dynamics emerged from the study of electrical control systems, and when generalized found many useful applications in natural systems outside...of the electrical world (Forrester, 1992). Whereas correlations describe cause and effect relationships in a linear equation, system dynamics

  15. Modeling interfacial dynamics using nonequilibrium thermodynamics frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sagis, L.M.C.

    2013-01-01

    In recent years several nonequilibrium thermodynamic frameworks have been developed capable of describing the dynamics of multiphase systems with complex microstructured interfaces. In this paper we present an overview of these frameworks. We will discuss interfacial dynamics in the context of the

  16. Non-equilibrium dynamics of Gaudin models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barmettler, P.; Fioretto, D.; Gritsev, V.

    2013-01-01

    n classical mechanics the theory of non-linear dynamics provides a detailed framework for the distinction between near-integrable and chaotic systems. Quite in opposition, in quantum many-body theory no generic microscopic principle at the origin of complex dynamics is known. Here we show that the

  17. Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-02

    Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for...12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 Online learning , multi-armed bandit, dynamic networks REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S... Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models Report Title This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for

  18. A review of dynamics modelling of friction wedge suspensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Sun, Yan Quan

    2014-11-01

    Three-piece bogies with friction wedge suspensions are the most widely used bogies in heavy haul trains. Fiction wedge suspensions play a key role in these wagon systems. This article reviews current techniques in dynamic modelling of friction wedge suspension with various motivations: to improve dynamic models of friction wedge suspensions so as to improve general wagon dynamics simulations; to seek better friction wedge suspension models for wagon stability assessments in complex train systems; to improve the modelling of other friction devices, such as friction draft gear. Relevant theories and friction wedge suspension models developed by using commercial simulation packages and in-house simulation packages are reviewed.

  19. Modeling urban films using a dynamic multimedia fugacity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csiszar, Susan A; Diamond, Miriam L; Thibodeaux, Louis J

    2012-05-01

    A thin film coats impervious urban surfaces that can act as a source or sink of organic pollutants to the greater environment. We review recent developments in the understanding of film and film-associated pollutant behavior and incorporate them into an unsteady-state version of the fugacity based Multimedia Urban Model (MUM), focusing on detailed considerations of surface film dynamics. The model is used to explore the conditions under which these atmospherically-derived films act as a temporary source of chemicals to the air and/or storm water. Assuming film growth of 2.1 nm d(-1) (Wu et al., 2008a), PCB congeners 28 and 180 reach air-film equilibrium within hours and days, respectively. The model results suggest that the film acts as a temporary sink of chemicals from air during dry and cool weather, as a source to air in warmer weather, and as a source to storm water and soil during rain events. Using the downtown area of the City of Toronto Canada, as a case study, the model estimates that nearly 1 g d(-1) of ∑(5)PCBs are transferred from air to film to storm water. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Fractional Relativistic Yamaleev Oscillator Model and Its Dynamical Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shao-Kai; He, Jin-Man; Xu, Yan-Li; Zhang, Xiao-Tian

    2016-07-01

    In the paper we construct a new kind of fractional dynamical model, i.e. the fractional relativistic Yamaleev oscillator model, and explore its dynamical behaviors. We will find that the fractional relativistic Yamaleev oscillator model possesses Lie algebraic structure and satisfies generalized Poisson conservation law. We will also give the Poisson conserved quantities of the model. Further, the relation between conserved quantities and integral invariants of the model is studied and it is proved that, by using the Poisson conserved quantities, we can construct integral invariants of the model. Finally, the stability of the manifold of equilibrium states of the fractional relativistic Yamaleev oscillator model is studied. The paper provides a general method, i.e. fractional generalized Hamiltonian method, for constructing a family of fractional dynamical models of an actual dynamical system.

  1. The development of a comvenient thermal dynamic building model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Achterbosch, G.G.J.; de Jong, P.P.G.; Krist-Spit, C.E.; van der Meulen, S.F.; Verberne, J.F.C.

    1985-01-01

    The present paper describes a method to set up a thermal building model combining relative simplicity with high dynamic accuracy. The models were verified in two Dutch semi-detached dwellings characterized by extreme values of thermal capacity.

  2. Identification of Dynamic Simulation Models for Variable Speed Pumped Storage Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, C.; Fulgêncio, N.; Silva, B.; Nicolet, C.; Béguin, A.

    2017-04-01

    This paper addresses the identification of reduced order models for variable speed pump-turbine plants, including the representation of the dynamic behaviour of the main components: hydraulic system, turbine governors, electromechanical equipment and power converters. A methodology for the identification of appropriated reduced order models both for turbine and pump operating modes is presented and discussed. The methodological approach consists of three main steps: 1) detailed pumped-storage power plant modelling in SIMSEN; 2) reduced order models identification and 3) specification of test conditions for performance evaluation.

  3. Bistable dynamics of an insect–pathogen model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Here, we were able to construct an insect–pathogen model which has bistable dynamics. This simple model may be helpful to identify the universal mechanisms which lead to bistability in a biological system. The control of bistable system is very difficult because the dynamics has sensitivity to initial conditions. Therefore, to ...

  4. Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    occurs in ballistic impact, and accompanies amorphization in diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments (Yan et al., 2009). Fracture in boron carbide ...Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals by J. D. Clayton ARL-RP-440 May 2013...Ground, MD 21005-5069 ARL-RP-440 May 2013 Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals J. D. Clayton

  5. Mathematical model of the bacteria-nutrient dynamics | Inyama ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper we developed a Mathematical Model of bacteria-nutrient dynamics which results in a system of first order ordinary differential equations. The analysis of the model was done using dynamical systems. It was found out that the product of the maximum nutrient uptake per cel; and the number of cells produced per ...

  6. Dynamic root uptake model for neutral lipophilic organics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trapp, Stefan

    2002-01-01

    and output to stem with the transpiration stream plus first-order metabolism and dilution by exponential growth. For chemicals with low or intermediate lipophilicity (log Kow , 2), there was no relevant difference between dynamic model and equilibrium approach. For lipophilic compounds, the dynamic model...

  7. Dynamic of exact perturbations in Bianchi IX type cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mello Neto, J.R.T. de.

    1985-01-01

    The dynamic of Bianchi IX type cosmological models is studied, after reducing Einstein equations to Hamiltonian system. Using the Melnikov method, the existence of chaos in the dynamic of these models is proved, and some numerical experiments are carried out. (M.C.K.) [pt

  8. Nonstationary dynamics of the Alessandro-Beatrice-Bertotti-Montorsi model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrinevski, Alexander; Le Doussal, Pierre; Wiese, Kay Jörg

    2012-03-01

    We obtain an exact solution for the motion of a particle driven by a spring in a Brownian random-force landscape, the Alessandro-Beatrice-Bertotti-Montorsi (ABBM) model. Many experiments on quasistatic driving of elastic interfaces (Barkhausen noise in magnets, earthquake statistics, shear dynamics of granular matter) exhibit the same universal behavior as this model. It also appears as a limit in the field theory of elastic manifolds. Here we discuss predictions of the ABBM model for monotonous, but otherwise arbitrary, time-dependent driving. Our main result is an explicit formula for the generating functional of particle velocities and positions. We apply this to derive the particle-velocity distribution following a quench in the driving velocity. We also obtain the joint avalanche size and duration distribution and the mean avalanche shape following a jump in the position of the confining spring. Such nonstationary driving is easy to realize in experiments, and provides a way to test the ABBM model beyond the stationary, quasistatic regime. We study extensions to two elastically coupled layers, and to an elastic interface of internal dimension d, in the Brownian force landscape. The effective action of the field theory is equal to the action, up to one-loop corrections obtained exactly from a functional determinant. This provides a connection to renormalization-group methods.

  9. Fractional Lorentz-Dirac Model and Its Dynamical Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shao-Kai; Xu, Yan-Li

    2015-02-01

    In the paper, we construct a new kind of fractional dynamical model, i.e. the fractional Lorentz-Dirac model, and explore dynamical behaviors of the model. We find that the fractional Lorentz-Dirac model possesses Lie algebraic structure and satisfies generalized Poisson conservation law, and then a series of Poisson conserved quantities of the model are given. Further, the relation between conserved quantity and integral invariant of the model is studied, and it is proved that, using the Poisson conserved quantities, we can construct a series of integral invariants of the model. Finally, the stability for the manifolds of equilibrium state of the fractional Lorentz-Dirac model is studied.

  10. Online Prediction under Model Uncertainty Via Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Raftery, Adrian E; Karny, Miroslav; Andrysek, Josef; Ettler, Pavel

    2007-01-01

    ... is. We develop a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) in which a state space model for the parameters of each model is combined with a Markov chain model for the correct model. This allows the (correct...

  11. Cholera transmission dynamic models for public health practitioners

    OpenAIRE

    Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai

    2014-01-01

    Great progress has been made in mathematical models of cholera transmission dynamics in recent years. However, little impact, if any, has been made by models upon public health decision-making and day-to-day routine of epidemiologists. This paper provides a brief introduction to the basics of ordinary differential equation models of cholera transmission dynamics. We discuss a basic model adapted from Codeço (2001), and how it can be modified to incorporate different hypotheses, including the ...

  12. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 1 (Main text and Appendix I, sections 1--4)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 1 contains the main body of the report and the first 4 sections of Appendix 1: Modeling of black liquor recovery boilers -- summary report; Flow and heat transfer modeling in the upper furnace of a kraft recovery boiler; Numerical simulation of black liquor combustion; and Investigation of turbulence models and prediction of swirling flows for kraft recovery furnaces.

  13. Dynamics and Collapse in a Power System Model with Voltage Variation: The Damping Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jinpeng; Sun, Yong; Yuan, Xiaoming; Kurths, Jürgen; Zhan, Meng

    2016-01-01

    Complex nonlinear phenomena are investigated in a basic power system model of the single-machine-infinite-bus (SMIB) with a synchronous generator modeled by a classical third-order differential equation including both angle dynamics and voltage dynamics, the so-called flux decay equation. In contrast, for the second-order differential equation considering the angle dynamics only, it is the classical swing equation. Similarities and differences of the dynamics generated between the third-order model and the second-order one are studied. We mainly find that, for positive damping, these two models show quite similar behavior, namely, stable fixed point, stable limit cycle, and their coexistence for different parameters. However, for negative damping, the second-order system can only collapse, whereas for the third-order model, more complicated behavior may happen, such as stable fixed point, limit cycle, quasi-periodicity, and chaos. Interesting partial collapse phenomena for angle instability only and not for voltage instability are also found here, including collapse from quasi-periodicity and from chaos etc. These findings not only provide a basic physical picture for power system dynamics in the third-order model incorporating voltage dynamics, but also enable us a deeper understanding of the complex dynamical behavior and even leading to a design of oscillation damping in electric power systems.

  14. Dynamics of mathematical models in biology bringing mathematics to life

    CERN Document Server

    Zazzu, Valeria; Guarracino, Mario

    2016-01-01

    This volume focuses on contributions from both the mathematics and life science community surrounding the concepts of time and dynamicity of nature, two significant elements which are often overlooked in modeling process to avoid exponential computations. The book is divided into three distinct parts: dynamics of genomes and genetic variation, dynamics of motifs, and dynamics of biological networks. Chapters included in dynamics of genomes and genetic variation analyze the molecular mechanisms and evolutionary processes that shape the structure and function of genomes and those that govern genome dynamics. The dynamics of motifs portion of the volume provides an overview of current methods for motif searching in DNA, RNA and proteins, a key process to discover emergent properties of cells, tissues, and organisms. The part devoted to the dynamics of biological networks covers networks aptly discusses networks in complex biological functions and activities that interpret processes in cells. Moreover, chapters i...

  15. Multibody dynamics model building using graphical interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macala, Glenn A.

    1989-01-01

    In recent years, the extremely laborious task of manually deriving equations of motion for the simulation of multibody spacecraft dynamics has largely been eliminated. Instead, the dynamicist now works with commonly available general purpose dynamics simulation programs which generate the equations of motion either explicitly or implicitly via computer codes. The user interface to these programs has predominantly been via input data files, each with its own required format and peculiarities, causing errors and frustrations during program setup. Recent progress in a more natural method of data input for dynamics programs: the graphical interface, is described.

  16. On the dynamic Stability of a quadratic-cubic elastic model structure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main substance of this investigation is the determination of the dynamic buckling load of an imperfect quadratic-cubic elastic model structure , which ,in itself, is a Mathematical generalization of some of the many physical structures normally encountered in engineering practice and allied fields. The load function in ...

  17. Efficient dynamic modeling of manipulators containing closed kinematic loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Gianni; Rocco, Paolo

    An approach to efficiently solve the forward dynamics problem for manipulators containing closed chains is proposed. The two main distinctive features of this approach are: the dynamics of the equivalent open loop tree structures (any closed loop can be in general modeled by imposing some additional kinematic constraints to a suitable tree structure) is computed through an efficient Newton Euler formulation; the constraint equations relative to the most commonly adopted closed chains in industrial manipulators are explicitly solved, thus, overcoming the redundancy of Lagrange's multipliers method while avoiding the inefficiency due to a numerical solution of the implicit constraint equations. The constraint equations considered for an explicit solution are those imposed by articulated gear mechanisms and planar closed chains (pantograph type structures). Articulated gear mechanisms are actually used in all industrial robots to transmit motion from actuators to links, while planar closed chains are usefully employed to increase the stiffness of the manipulators and their load capacity, as well to reduce the kinematic coupling of joint axes. The accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed approach are shown through a simulation test.

  18. The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE): a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    System Dynamics (SD) models are useful for holistic integration of data to evaluate indirect and cumulative effects and inform decisions. Complex SD models can provide key insights into how decisions affect the three interconnected pillars of sustainability. However, the complexi...

  19. Modeling Dynamic Fracture of Cryogenic Pellets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parks, Paul [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2016-06-30

    This work is part of an investigation with the long-range objective of predicting the size distribution function and velocity dispersion of shattered pellet fragments after a large cryogenic pellet impacts a solid surface at high velocity. The study is vitally important for the shattered pellet injection (SPI) technique, one of the leading technologies being implemented at ORNL for the mitigation of disruption damage on current tokamaks and ITER. The report contains three parts that are somewhat interwoven. In Part I we formulated a self-similar model for the expansion dynamics and velocity dispersion of the debris cloud following pellet impact against a thick (rigid) target plate. Also presented in Part I is an analytical fracture model that predicts the nominal or mean size of the fragments in the debris cloud and agrees well with known SPI data. The aim of Part II is to gain an understanding of the pellet fracturing process when a pellet is shattered inside a miter tube with a sharp bend. Because miter tubes have a thin stainless steel (SS) wall a permanent deformation (dishing) of the wall is produced at the site of the impact. A review of the literature indicates that most projectile impact on thin plates are those for which the target is deformed and the projectile is perfectly rigid. Such impacts result in “projectile embedding” where the projectile speed is reduced to zero during the interaction so that all the kinetic energy (KE) of the projectile goes into the energy stored in plastic deformation. Much of the literature deals with perforation of the target. The problem here is quite different; the softer pellet easily undergoes complete material failure causing only a small transfer of KE to stored energy of wall deformation. For the real miter tube, we derived a strain energy function for the wall deflection using a non-linear (plastic) stress-strain relation for 304 SS. Using a dishing profile identical to the linear Kirchkoff-Love profile (for lack

  20. Modelling of dynamic equivalents in electric power grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craciun, Diana Iuliana

    2010-01-01

    In a first part, this research thesis proposes a description of the context and new constraints of electric grids: architecture, decentralized production with the impact of distributed energy resource systems, dynamic simulation, and interest of equivalent models. Then, the author discusses the modelling of the different components of electric grids: synchronous and asynchronous machines, distributed energy resource with power electronic interface, loading models. She addresses the techniques of reduction of electric grid models: conventional reduction methods, dynamic equivalence methods using non linear approaches or evolutionary algorithm-based methods of assessment of parameters. This last approach is then developed and implemented, and a new method of computation of dynamic equivalents is described

  1. Dynamic modelling and natural characteristic analysis of cycloid ball transmission using lumped stiffness method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peng; Bao, Bingbing; Wang, Meng

    2017-01-01

    The vibration of robot joint reducer is the main factor that causes vibration or motion error of robot system. To improve the dynamic precision of robot system, the cycloid ball transmission used in robot joint is selected as study object in this paper. An efficient dynamic modelling method is presented-lumped stiffness method. Based on lumped stiffness method, a translational-torsional coupling dynamics model of cycloid ball transmission system is established. Mesh stiffness variation excitation, damping of system are all intrinsically considered in the model. The dynamic equation of system is derived by means of relative displacement relationship among different components. Then, the natural frequencies and vibration modes of the derivative system are presented by solving the associated eigenvalue problem. Finally, the influence of the main structural parameters on the natural frequency of the system is analysed. The present research can provide a new idea for dynamic analysis of robot joint reducer and provide a more simplify dynamic modelling method for robot system with joint reducer.

  2. Some results on the dynamics generated by the Bazykin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgescu, R M

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available A predator-prey model formerly proposed by A. Bazykin et al. [Bifurcation diagrams of planar dynamical systems (1985] is analyzed in the case when two of the four parameters are kept fixed. Dynamics and bifurcation results are deduced by using the methods developed by D. K. Arrowsmith and C. M. Place [Ordinary differential equations (1982], S.-N. Chow et al. [Normal forms and bifurcation of planar fields (1994], Y. A. Kuznetsov [Elements of applied bifurcation theory (1998], and A. Georgescu [Dynamic bifurcation diagrams for some models in economics and biology (2004]. The global dynamic bifurcation diagram is constructed and graphically represented. The biological interpretation is presented, too.

  3. An Epidemiological Model of Rift Valley Fever with Spatial Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianchan Niu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As a category A agent in the Center for Disease Control bioterrorism list, Rift Valley fever (RVF is considered a major threat to the United States (USA. Should the pathogen be intentionally or unintentionally introduced to the continental USA, there is tremendous potential for economic damages due to loss of livestock, trade restrictions, and subsequent food supply chain disruptions. We have incorporated the effects of space into a mathematical model of RVF in order to study the dynamics of the pathogen spread as affected by the movement of humans, livestock, and mosquitoes. The model accounts for the horizontal transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV between two mosquito and one livestock species, and mother-to-offspring transmission of virus in one of the mosquito species. Space effects are introduced by dividing geographic space into smaller patches and considering the patch-to-patch movement of species. For each patch, a system of ordinary differential equations models fractions of populations susceptible to, incubating, infectious with, or immune to RVFV. The main contribution of this work is a methodology for analyzing the likelihood of pathogen establishment should an introduction occur into an area devoid of RVF. Examples are provided for general and specific cases to illustrate the methodology.

  4. A simple dynamic model and transient simulation of the nuclear power reactor on microcomputers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Yang Gee; Park, Cheol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    A simple dynamic model is developed for the transient simulation of the nuclear power reactor. The dynamic model includes the normalized neutron kinetics model with reactivity feedback effects and the core thermal-hydraulics model. The main objective of this paper demonstrates the capability of the developed dynamic model to simulate various important variables of interest for a nuclear power reactor transient. Some representative results of transient simulations show the expected trends in all cases, even though no available data for comparison. In this work transient simulations are performed on a microcomputer using the DESIRE/N96T continuous system simulation language which is applicable to nuclear power reactor transient analysis. 3 refs., 9 figs. (Author)

  5. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  6. Developing a Dynamic Pharmacophore Model for HIV-1 Integrase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, Heather A.; Masukawa, Keven M.; Rubins, Kathleen; Bushman, Frederic; Jorgensen, William L.; Lins, Roberto; Briggs, James; Mccammon, Andy

    2000-01-01

    We present the first receptor-based pharmacophore model for HIV-1 integrase. The development of ''dynamic'' pharmacophore models is a new method that accounts for the inherent flexibility of the active site and aims to reduce the entropic penalties associated with binding a ligand. Furthermore, this new drug discovery method overcomes the limitation of an incomplete crystal structure of the target protein. A molecular dynamics (MD) simulation describes the flexibility of the uncomplexed protein. Many conformational models of the protein are saved from the MD simulations and used in a series of multi-unit search for interacting conformers (MUSIC) simulations. MUSIC is a multiple-copy minimization method, available in the BOSS program; it is used to determine binding regions for probe molecules containing functional groups that complement the active site. All protein conformations from the MD are overlaid, and conserved binding regions for the probe molecules are identified. Those conserved binding regions define the dynamic pharmacophore model. Here, the dynamic model is compared to known inhibitors of the integrase as well as a three-point, ligand-based pharmacophore model from the literature. Also, a ''static'' pharmacophore model was determined in the standard fashion, using a single crystal structure. Inhibitors thought to bind in the active site of HIV-1 integrase fit the dynamic model but not the static model. Finally, we have identified a set of compounds from the Available Chemicals Directory that fit the dynamic pharmacophore model, and experimental testing of the compounds has confirmed several new inhibitors

  7. An Efficient Dynamic Trust Evaluation Model for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengwang Ye

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Trust evaluation is an effective method to detect malicious nodes and ensure security in wireless sensor networks (WSNs. In this paper, an efficient dynamic trust evaluation model (DTEM for WSNs is proposed, which implements accurate, efficient, and dynamic trust evaluation by dynamically adjusting the weights of direct trust and indirect trust and the parameters of the update mechanism. To achieve accurate trust evaluation, the direct trust is calculated considering multitrust including communication trust, data trust, and energy trust with the punishment factor and regulating function. The indirect trust is evaluated conditionally by the trusted recommendations from a third party. Moreover, the integrated trust is measured by assigning dynamic weights for direct trust and indirect trust and combining them. Finally, we propose an update mechanism by a sliding window based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator to enhance flexibility. We can dynamically adapt the parameters and the interactive history windows number according to the actual needs of the network to realize dynamic update of direct trust value. Simulation results indicate that the proposed dynamic trust model is an efficient dynamic and attack-resistant trust evaluation model. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed dynamic trust model performs better in defending multiple malicious attacks.

  8. Dynamic Models of Instruments Using Rotating Unbalanced Masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, John Y.; Gallaspy, Jason M.; Bishop, Carlee A.

    1998-01-01

    The motion of telescopes, satellites, and other flight bodies have been controlled by various means in the past. For example, gimbal mounted devices can use electric motors to produce pointing and scanning motions. Reaction wheels, control moment gyros, and propellant-charged reaction jets are other technologies that have also been used. Each of these methods has its advantages, but all actuator systems used in a flight environment face the challenges of minimizing weight, reducing energy consumption, and maximizing reliability. Recently, Polites invented and patented the Rotating Unbalanced Mass (RUM) device as a means for generation scanning motion on flight experiments. RUM devices together with traditional servomechanisms have been successfully used to generate various scanning motions: linear, raster, and circular. The basic principle can be described: A RUM rotating at constant angular velocity exerts a cyclic centrifugal force on the instrument or main body, thus producing a periodic scanning motion. A system of RUM devices exerts no reaction forces on the main body, requires very little energy to rotate the RUMS, and is simple to construct. These are significant advantages over electric motors, reaction wheels, and control moment gyroscopes. Although the RUM device very easily produces scanning motion, an auxiliary control system has been required to maintain the proper orientation, or pointing of the main body. It has been suggested that RUM devices can be used to control pointing dynamics, as well as generate the desired periodic scanning motion. The idea is that the RUM velocity will not be kept constant, but will vary over the period of one RUM rotation. The thought is that the changing angular velocity produces a centrifugal force having time-varying magnitude and direction. The scope of this ongoing research project is to study the pointing control concept, and recommend a direction of study for advanced pointing control using only RUM devices. This

  9. Powered Paraglider Longitudinal Dynamic Modeling and Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Colin P.

    Paragliders and similar controllable decelerators provide the benefits of a compact packable parachute with the improved glide performance and steering of a conventional wing, making them ideally suited for precise high offset payload recovery and airdrop missions. This advantage over uncontrollable conventional parachutes sparked interest from Oklahoma State University for implementation into its Atmospheric and Space Threshold Research Oklahoma (ASTRO) program, where payloads often descend into wooded areas. However, due to complications while building a powered paraglider to evaluate the concept, more research into its design parameters was deemed necessary. Focus shifted to an investigation of the effects of these parameters on the flight behavior of a powered system. A longitudinal dynamic model, based on Lagrange's equation for adaptability when adding free-hanging masses, was developed to evaluate trim conditions and analyze system response. With the simulation, the effects of rigging angle, fuselage weight, center of gravity (cg), and apparent mass were calculated through step thrust input cases. Test flights evaluated the behavior of the paraglider, and the design was revised based on observations and analysis. Rigging angle sets the power-off glide slope as well as thrust capacity and input response damping. At more negative angles the glide slope is steeper, can handle more thrust, and damps quicker at a lower frequency. The fuselage weight, or loading, affects thrust capacity and power-off sink rate, with heavier gliders capable of larger thrust inputs but faster descent speed; however, the glide slope remains unchanged. As the cg position is place forward of the attachment point the incidence angle and thrust line will rotate downward, while the opposite occurs moving aft. For the test vehicle, a slightly forward position allowed for the greatest thrust input, and far forward reduced performance for equivalent thrust compared to far aft. Three test

  10. Model based control of dynamic atomic force microscope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chibum; Salapaka, Srinivasa M.

    2015-01-01

    A model-based robust control approach is proposed that significantly improves imaging bandwidth for the dynamic mode atomic force microscopy. A model for cantilever oscillation amplitude and phase dynamics is derived and used for the control design. In particular, the control design is based on a linearized model and robust H ∞ control theory. This design yields a significant improvement when compared to the conventional proportional-integral designs and verified by experiments

  11. Model based control of dynamic atomic force microscope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chibum; Salapaka, Srinivasa M

    2015-04-01

    A model-based robust control approach is proposed that significantly improves imaging bandwidth for the dynamic mode atomic force microscopy. A model for cantilever oscillation amplitude and phase dynamics is derived and used for the control design. In particular, the control design is based on a linearized model and robust H(∞) control theory. This design yields a significant improvement when compared to the conventional proportional-integral designs and verified by experiments.

  12. Complex Price Dynamics in the Modified Kaldorian Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kodera, Jan; Van Tran, Q.; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-384 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Priice dynamics, * numerical examples * two-equation model * four-equation model * nonlinear time series analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kodera-model of price dynamics and chaos.pdf

  13. VERIFICATION OF GEAR DYNAMIC MODEL IN DIFFERENT OPERATING CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz PERUŃ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of verification of the drive system dynamic model with gear. Tests were carried out on the real object in different operating conditions. For the same assumed conditions were also carried out simulation studies. Comparison of the results obtained from those two series of tests helped determine the suitability of the model and verify the possibility of replacing experimental research by simulations with use of dynamic model.

  14. On the connection of Taylor models and dislocation dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raabe, D.

    1994-01-01

    An approach for the connection of Taylor-type models and dislocation dynamics is suggested. The applied Taylor model takes into account grain interactions, leading to only partial local strain relaxation. For two orientations the predicted active slip systems are hereafter subject to the simulation of three-dimensional dislocation dynamics which, however, takes place on a much smaller strain scale when compared to Taylor modelling. (au) (19 refs.)

  15. Dynamic modeling of ultrafiltration membranes for whey separation processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saltık, M.B.; Özkan, Leyla; Jacobs, Marc; Padt, van der Albert

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present a control relevant rigorous dynamic model for an ultrafiltration membrane unit in a whey separation process. The model consists of a set of differential algebraic equations and is developed for online model based applications such as model based control and process

  16. Model and simulation of Krause model in dynamic open network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    The construction of the concept of evolution is an effective way to reveal the formation of group consensus. This study is based on the modeling paradigm of the HK model (Hegsekmann-Krause). This paper analyzes the evolution of multi - agent opinion in dynamic open networks with member mobility. The results of the simulation show that when the number of agents is constant, the interval distribution of the initial distribution will affect the number of the final view, The greater the distribution of opinions, the more the number of views formed eventually; The trust threshold has a decisive effect on the number of views, and there is a negative correlation between the trust threshold and the number of opinions clusters. The higher the connectivity of the initial activity group, the more easily the subjective opinion in the evolution of opinion to achieve rapid convergence. The more open the network is more conducive to the unity of view, increase and reduce the number of agents will not affect the consistency of the group effect, but not conducive to stability.

  17. Analysis of vorticity dynamics for hump characteristics of a pump turbine model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Deyou; Gong, Ruzhi; Wang, Hongjie; Han, Lei; Wei, Xianzhu; Qin, Daqing

    2016-01-01

    Conventional parameters based on CFD methodology for the investigation on hump characteristics of a pump turbine cannot reflect the dynamic interaction mechanism between the runner and the fluid. This research presents a dynamic interaction mechanism of a pump turbine operating in the hump region. First, vorticity dynamic parameters were obtained based on the theory of vorticity dynamics. Second, 3-D unsteady flow simulations were performed in a full pump turbine model using the SST k-ω turbulence model, and numerical results have a good agreement with the experiments. Then, analysis was carried out to determine the relation between the vorticity dynamic parameters and hump characteristics. The results indicate that the theory of vorticity dynamics has an advantage in evaluating the dynamic performance of a pump turbine. The energy transfer between the runner and the fluid is through vorticity dynamic parameters-pressure and friction terms, in which the pressure term accounts for the most. Furthermore, vortex generation mainly results from the skin friction. Combining vorticity dynamic analysis with the method of Q-criterion indicates that hump characteristics are related to the reduction of the surface normal pressure work and vortex motion on the suction surfaces close to the leading edges in the runner, and the increase of skin friction work in the stay-guide vanes

  18. Power quality analysis of STATCOM using dynamic phasor modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannan, M.A.; Mohamed, A.; Hussain, A.; AI-Dabbagh, Majid [Department of Electrical, Electronic and Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2009-06-15

    Modeling of synchronous static compensator (STATCOM) of a power system based on the dynamic phasor model to investigate the performance of STATCOM for power quality analysis is described. It is compared with electromagnetic transient program (EMTP) like simulation. The dynamic phasor model and electromagnetic transient (EMT) model of the STATCOM including the power system are implemented in Matlab/Simulink toolbox and PSCAD/EMTDC, respectively. STATCOM dynamic phasor model including switching functions and their control system are presented. A satisfactory solution for power quality problems on typical distribution network is analyzed using the dynamic phasor model and EMTP like PSCAD/EMTDC simulation techniques. The simulation results revealed that the dynamic phasor model of STATCOM is in excellent agreement with the detailed time-domain EMT model of PSCAD/EMTDC simulation. The dynamic behavior of STATCOM using phasor model can be applied for analyzing power quality issues. It is found faster in speed and higher accuracy can be obtained and correlates well with PSCAD/EMTDC simulation results. (author)

  19. THEORETICAL FEATURES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OVER TIME OF THE MAIN COMMUNICATION MODELS USED FOR THE STUDY OF MASS COMMUNICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina IOSUB

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of increasingly accelerated development of technology and particularly of the Internet, mass communication acquires new meanings. This article proposes a brief theoretical approach to the study of mass communication as it was treated in the specific literature of the 50s and 60s, when there was little talk about new technologies. However, many features identified since then still retain their topicality and for this reason it is interesting to note the evolution over time of the main communication models that were and some of them still are used for the study of mass communication. They are relevant to the context in which a complete study of mass communication is required, not only from the perspective of the present, but also from the period in which it was outlined. Thus, this article is divided into three main sections: the first part represents the meaning of communication in a general sense, so that the second part to represent the mass communication process and its characteristics, and the last part to represent the main models of communication in the order in which they have occurred, and especially aiming at new features that each of them brought.

  20. Induction generator models in dynamic simulation tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Hans; Akhmatov, Vladislav

    1999-01-01

    For AC network with large amount of induction generators (windmills) the paper demonstrates a significant discrepancy in the simulated voltage recovery after fault in weak networks when comparing dynamic and transient stability descriptions and the reasons of discrepancies are explained. It is fo......For AC network with large amount of induction generators (windmills) the paper demonstrates a significant discrepancy in the simulated voltage recovery after fault in weak networks when comparing dynamic and transient stability descriptions and the reasons of discrepancies are explained...... to a tunny generator through a shaft....