WorldWideScience

Sample records for dynamic causal modeling

  1. Putting a cap on causality violations in causal dynamical triangulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambjoern, Jan; Loll, Renate; Westra, Willem; Zohren, Stefan

    2007-01-01

    The formalism of causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) provides us with a non-perturbatively defined model of quantum gravity, where the sum over histories includes only causal space-time histories. Path integrals of CDT and their continuum limits have been studied in two, three and four dimensions. Here we investigate a generalization of the two-dimensional CDT model, where the causality constraint is partially lifted by introducing branching points with a weight g s , and demonstrate that the system can be solved analytically in the genus-zero sector. The solution is analytic in a neighborhood around weight g s = 0 and cannot be analytically continued to g s = ∞, where the branching is entirely geometric and where one would formally recover standard Euclidean two-dimensional quantum gravity defined via dynamical triangulations or Liouville theory

  2. Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Ruge

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

  3. Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model*

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    Hao, Shao-rui; Geng, Shi-chao; Fan, Lin-xiao; Chen, Jia-jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-juan

    2017-01-01

    Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A “chaining” inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure. PMID:28471111

  4. Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shao-Rui; Geng, Shi-Chao; Fan, Lin-Xiao; Chen, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-Juan

    2017-05-01

    Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A "chaining" inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure.

  5. Neural pathways in processing of sexual arousal: a dynamic causal modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seok, J-W; Park, M-S; Sohn, J-H

    2016-09-01

    Three decades of research have investigated brain processing of visual sexual stimuli with neuroimaging methods. These researchers have found that sexual arousal stimuli elicit activity in a broad neural network of cortical and subcortical brain areas that are known to be associated with cognitive, emotional, motivational and physiological components. However, it is not completely understood how these neural systems integrate and modulated incoming information. Therefore, we identify cerebral areas whose activations were correlated with sexual arousal using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging and used the dynamic causal modeling method for searching the effective connectivity about the sexual arousal processing network. Thirteen heterosexual males were scanned while they passively viewed alternating short trials of erotic and neutral pictures on a monitor. We created a subset of seven models based on our results and previous studies and selected a dominant connectivity model. Consequently, we suggest a dynamic causal model of the brain processes mediating the cognitive, emotional, motivational and physiological factors of human male sexual arousal. These findings are significant implications for the neuropsychology of male sexuality.

  6. Dynamics and causality constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Manoelito M. de

    2001-04-01

    The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Causality in field theory are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equation, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away with deep implications to the nature of physicals interactions. (author)

  7. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

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    Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

    2018-01-01

    It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  8. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Castro-Ruiz

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B. Here, we develop a framework for “dynamics of causal structures,” i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B, via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A. We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  9. Dynamic Causal Models and Autopoietic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLIVIER DAVID

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated

  10. Dynamic factor analysis in the frequency domain: causal modeling of multivariate psychophysiological time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, P.C.M.

    1987-01-01

    Outlines a frequency domain analysis of the dynamic factor model and proposes a solution to the problem of constructing a causal filter of lagged factor loadings. The method is illustrated with applications to simulated and real multivariate time series. The latter applications involve topographic

  11. Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

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    Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

    2014-07-01

    One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

  12. Causally nonseparable processes admitting a causal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Brukner, Caslav

    2016-01-01

    A recent framework of quantum theory with no global causal order predicts the existence of ‘causally nonseparable’ processes. Some of these processes produce correlations incompatible with any causal order (they violate so-called ‘causal inequalities’ analogous to Bell inequalities ) while others do not (they admit a ‘causal model’ analogous to a local model ). Here we show for the first time that bipartite causally nonseparable processes with a causal model exist, and give evidence that they have no clear physical interpretation. We also provide an algorithm to generate processes of this kind and show that they have nonzero measure in the set of all processes. We demonstrate the existence of processes which stop violating causal inequalities but are still causally nonseparable when mixed with a certain amount of ‘white noise’. This is reminiscent of the behavior of Werner states in the context of entanglement and nonlocality. Finally, we provide numerical evidence for the existence of causally nonseparable processes which have a causal model even when extended with an entangled state shared among the parties. (paper)

  13. Causal relations among events and states in dynamic geographical phenomena

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    Huang, Zhaoqiang; Feng, Xuezhi; Xuan, Wenling; Chen, Xiuwan

    2007-06-01

    There is only a static state of the real world to be recorded in conventional geographical information systems. However, there is not only static information but also dynamic information in geographical phenomena. So that how to record the dynamic information and reveal the relations among dynamic information is an important issue in a spatio-temporal information system. From an ontological perspective, we can initially divide the spatio-temporal entities in the world into continuants and occurrents. Continuant entities endure through some extended (although possibly very short) interval of time (e.g., houses, roads, cities, and real-estate). Occurrent entities happen and are then gone (e.g., a house repair job, road construction project, urban expansion, real-estate transition). From an information system perspective, continuants and occurrents that have a unique identity in the system are referred to as objects and events, respectively. And the change is represented implicitly by static snapshots in current spatial temporal information systems. In the previous models, the objects can be considered as the fundamental components of the system, and the change is modeled by considering time-varying attributes of these objects. In the spatio-temporal database, the temporal information that is either interval or instant is involved and the underlying data structures and indexes for temporal are considerable investigated. However, there is the absence of explicit ways of considering events, which affect the attributes of objects or the state. So the research issue of this paper focuses on how to model events in conceptual models of dynamic geographical phenomena and how to represent the causal relations among events and the objects or states. Firstly, the paper reviews the conceptual modeling in a temporal GIS by researchers. Secondly, this paper discusses the spatio-temporal entities: objects and events. Thirdly, this paper investigates the causal relations amongst

  14. Diagnostic reasoning using qualitative causal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudduth, A.L.

    1992-01-01

    The application of expert systems to reasoning problems involving real-time data from plant measurements has been a topic of much research, but few practical systems have been deployed. One obstacle to wider use of expert systems in applications involving real-time data is the lack of adequate knowledge representation methodologies for dynamic processes. Knowledge bases composed mainly of rules have disadvantages when applied to dynamic processes and real-time data. This paper describes a methodology for the development of qualitative causal models that can be used as knowledge bases for reasoning about process dynamic behavior. These models provide a systematic method for knowledge base construction, considerably reducing the engineering effort required. They also offer much better opportunities for verification and validation of the knowledge base, thus increasing the possibility of the application of expert systems to reasoning about mission critical systems. Starting with the Signed Directed Graph (SDG) method that has been successfully applied to describe the behavior of diverse dynamic processes, the paper shows how certain non-physical behaviors that result from abstraction may be eliminated by applying causal constraint to the models. The resulting Extended Signed Directed Graph (ESDG) may then be compiled to produce a model for use in process fault diagnosis. This model based reasoning methodology is used in the MOBIAS system being developed by Duke Power Company under EPRI sponsorship. 15 refs., 4 figs

  15. Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

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    Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

    2010-09-01

    We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

  16. Indications of de Sitter spacetime from classical sequential growth dynamics of causal sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Maqbool; Rideout, David

    2010-01-01

    A large class of the dynamical laws for causal sets described by a classical process of sequential growth yields a cyclic universe, whose cycles of expansion and contraction are punctuated by single 'origin elements' of the causal set. We present evidence that the effective dynamics of the immediate future of one of these origin elements, within the context of the sequential growth dynamics, yields an initial period of de Sitter-like exponential expansion, and argue that the resulting picture has many attractive features as a model of the early universe, with the potential to solve some of the standard model puzzles without any fine-tuning.

  17. Detecting dynamic causal inference in nonlinear two-phase fracture flow

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    Faybishenko, Boris

    2017-08-01

    Identifying dynamic causal inference involved in flow and transport processes in complex fractured-porous media is generally a challenging task, because nonlinear and chaotic variables may be positively coupled or correlated for some periods of time, but can then become spontaneously decoupled or non-correlated. In his 2002 paper (Faybishenko, 2002), the author performed a nonlinear dynamical and chaotic analysis of time-series data obtained from the fracture flow experiment conducted by Persoff and Pruess (1995), and, based on the visual examination of time series data, hypothesized that the observed pressure oscillations at both inlet and outlet edges of the fracture result from a superposition of both forward and return waves of pressure propagation through the fracture. In the current paper, the author explores an application of a combination of methods for detecting nonlinear chaotic dynamics behavior along with the multivariate Granger Causality (G-causality) time series test. Based on the G-causality test, the author infers that his hypothesis is correct, and presents a causation loop diagram of the spatial-temporal distribution of gas, liquid, and capillary pressures measured at the inlet and outlet of the fracture. The causal modeling approach can be used for the analysis of other hydrological processes, for example, infiltration and pumping tests in heterogeneous subsurface media, and climatic processes, for example, to find correlations between various meteorological parameters, such as temperature, solar radiation, barometric pressure, etc.

  18. Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahangir Alam, Mohammad; Ara Begum, Ismat; Buysse, Jeroen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2012-01-01

    The paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Bangladesh. First, we have tested cointegration relationships using the Johansen bi-variate cointegration model. This is complemented with an analysis of an auto-regressive distributed lag model to examine the results' robustness. Then, the Granger short-run, the long-run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long-run while a bi-directional long-run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short-run. The strong causality results indicate bi-directional causality for both the cases. A uni-directional causality runs from energy consumption to CO 2 emission for the short-run but feedback causality exists in the long-run. CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run. An important policy implication is that energy (electricity as well) can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in Bangladesh. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand. - Highlights: ► Dynamic causality among energy and electricity consumption, CO 2 and economic growth. ► Uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth. ► Bi-directional causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth. ► Feedback causality exists between CO 2 emission to energy consumption. ► CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run.

  19. Quantum gravity from simplices: analytical investigations of causal dynamical triangulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benedetti, D.

    2007-01-01

    A potentially powerful approach to quantum gravity has been developed over the last few years under the name of Causal Dynamical Triangulations. Although these models can be solved exactly in a variety of ways in the case of pure gravity in (1+1) dimensions,it is difficult to extend any of the

  20. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald eYoung

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; American Psychiatric Association, 2013. However, network approaches to symptom interaction (i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., McNally, Robinaugh, Wu, Wang, Deserno, & Borsboom, 2014, for PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NLDST. The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (Young, 2011 to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning and universal (e.g., causal processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments.

  1. Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

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    Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

    2017-04-01

    Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

  2. How causal analysis can reveal autonomy in models of biological systems

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    Marshall, William; Kim, Hyunju; Walker, Sara I.; Tononi, Giulio; Albantakis, Larissa

    2017-11-01

    Standard techniques for studying biological systems largely focus on their dynamical or, more recently, their informational properties, usually taking either a reductionist or holistic perspective. Yet, studying only individual system elements or the dynamics of the system as a whole disregards the organizational structure of the system-whether there are subsets of elements with joint causes or effects, and whether the system is strongly integrated or composed of several loosely interacting components. Integrated information theory offers a theoretical framework to (1) investigate the compositional cause-effect structure of a system and to (2) identify causal borders of highly integrated elements comprising local maxima of intrinsic cause-effect power. Here we apply this comprehensive causal analysis to a Boolean network model of the fission yeast (Schizosaccharomyces pombe) cell cycle. We demonstrate that this biological model features a non-trivial causal architecture, whose discovery may provide insights about the real cell cycle that could not be gained from holistic or reductionist approaches. We also show how some specific properties of this underlying causal architecture relate to the biological notion of autonomy. Ultimately, we suggest that analysing the causal organization of a system, including key features like intrinsic control and stable causal borders, should prove relevant for distinguishing life from non-life, and thus could also illuminate the origin of life problem. This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

  3. Connectivity-based neurofeedback: Dynamic causal modeling for real-time fMRI☆

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    Koush, Yury; Rosa, Maria Joao; Robineau, Fabien; Heinen, Klaartje; W. Rieger, Sebastian; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Van De Ville, Dimitri; Scharnowski, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Neurofeedback based on real-time fMRI is an emerging technique that can be used to train voluntary control of brain activity. Such brain training has been shown to lead to behavioral effects that are specific to the functional role of the targeted brain area. However, real-time fMRI-based neurofeedback so far was limited to mainly training localized brain activity within a region of interest. Here, we overcome this limitation by presenting near real-time dynamic causal modeling in order to provide feedback information based on connectivity between brain areas rather than activity within a single brain area. Using a visual–spatial attention paradigm, we show that participants can voluntarily control a feedback signal that is based on the Bayesian model comparison between two predefined model alternatives, i.e. the connectivity between left visual cortex and left parietal cortex vs. the connectivity between right visual cortex and right parietal cortex. Our new approach thus allows for training voluntary control over specific functional brain networks. Because most mental functions and most neurological disorders are associated with network activity rather than with activity in a single brain region, this novel approach is an important methodological innovation in order to more directly target functionally relevant brain networks. PMID:23668967

  4. Identifying the default mode network structure using dynamic causal modeling on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Xin; Biswal, Bharat B

    2014-02-01

    The default mode network is part of the brain structure that shows higher neural activity and energy consumption when one is at rest. The key regions in the default mode network are highly interconnected as conveyed by both the white matter fiber tracing and the synchrony of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging signals. However, the causal information flow within the default mode network is still poorly understood. The current study used the dynamic causal modeling on a resting-state fMRI data set to identify the network structure underlying the default mode network. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Fourier series at the low frequency band of 0.01-0.08Hz, and those Fourier series were set as driving inputs of the DCM models. Model comparison procedures favored a model wherein the MPFC sends information to the PCC and the bilateral inferior parietal lobule sends information to both the PCC and MPFC. Further analyses provide evidence that the endogenous connectivity might be higher in the right hemisphere than in the left hemisphere. These data provided insight into the functions of each node in the DMN, and also validate the usage of DCM on resting-state fMRI data. © 2013.

  5. Comparison of two integration methods for dynamic causal modeling of electrophysiological data.

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    Lemaréchal, Jean-Didier; George, Nathalie; David, Olivier

    2018-06-01

    Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a methodological approach to study effective connectivity among brain regions. Based on a set of observations and a biophysical model of brain interactions, DCM uses a Bayesian framework to estimate the posterior distribution of the free parameters of the model (e.g. modulation of connectivity) and infer architectural properties of the most plausible model (i.e. model selection). When modeling electrophysiological event-related responses, the estimation of the model relies on the integration of the system of delay differential equations (DDEs) that describe the dynamics of the system. In this technical note, we compared two numerical schemes for the integration of DDEs. The first, and standard, scheme approximates the DDEs (more precisely, the state of the system, with respect to conduction delays among brain regions) using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and solves it with a fixed step size. The second scheme uses a dedicated DDEs solver with adaptive step sizes to control error, making it theoretically more accurate. To highlight the effects of the approximation used by the first integration scheme in regard to parameter estimation and Bayesian model selection, we performed simulations of local field potentials using first, a simple model comprising 2 regions and second, a more complex model comprising 6 regions. In these simulations, the second integration scheme served as the standard to which the first one was compared. Then, the performances of the two integration schemes were directly compared by fitting a public mismatch negativity EEG dataset with different models. The simulations revealed that the use of the standard DCM integration scheme was acceptable for Bayesian model selection but underestimated the connectivity parameters and did not allow an accurate estimation of conduction delays. Fitting to empirical data showed that the models systematically obtained an increased accuracy when using the second

  6. Effective Connectivity within the Default Mode Network: Dynamic Causal Modeling of Resting-State fMRI Data.

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    Sharaev, Maksim G; Zavyalova, Viktoria V; Ushakov, Vadim L; Kartashov, Sergey I; Velichkovsky, Boris M

    2016-01-01

    The Default Mode Network (DMN) is a brain system that mediates internal modes of cognitive activity, showing higher neural activation when one is at rest. Nowadays, there is a lot of interest in assessing functional interactions between its key regions, but in the majority of studies only association of Blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) activation patterns is measured, so it is impossible to identify causal influences. There are some studies of causal interactions (i.e., effective connectivity), however often with inconsistent results. The aim of the current work is to find a stable pattern of connectivity between four DMN key regions: the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), left and right intraparietal cortex (LIPC and RIPC). For this purpose functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from 30 healthy subjects (1000 time points from each one) was acquired and spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM) on a resting-state fMRI data was performed. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Discrete Cosine Set at the low frequency band of 0.0078-0.1 Hz. The best model at the group level is the one where connections from both bilateral IPC to mPFC and PCC are significant and symmetrical in strength (p bidirectional, significant in the group and weaker than connections originating from bilateral IPC. In general, all connections from LIPC/RIPC to other DMN regions are much stronger. One can assume that these regions have a driving role within the DMN. Our results replicate some data from earlier works on effective connectivity within the DMN as well as provide new insights on internal DMN relationships and brain's functioning at resting state.

  7. Causal reasoning with mental models

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    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  8. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  9. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  10. Dynamic Causal Modeling of the Cortical Responses to Wrist Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical perturbations applied to the wrist joint typically evoke a stereotypical sequence of cortical and muscle responses. The early cortical responses (<100 ms are thought be involved in the “rapid” transcortical reaction to the perturbation while the late cortical responses (>100 ms are related to the “slow” transcortical reaction. Although previous studies indicated that both responses involve the primary motor cortex, it remains unclear if both responses are engaged by the same effective connectivity in the cortical network. To answer this question, we investigated the effective connectivity cortical network after a “ramp-and-hold” mechanical perturbation, in both the early (<100 ms and late (>100 ms periods, using dynamic causal modeling. Ramp-and-hold perturbations were applied to the wrist joint while the subject maintained an isometric wrist flexion. Cortical activity was recorded using a 128-channel electroencephalogram (EEG. We investigated how the perturbation modulated the effective connectivity for the early and late periods. Bayesian model comparisons suggested that different effective connectivity networks are engaged in these two periods. For the early period, we found that only a few cortico-cortical connections were modulated, while more complicated connectivity was identified in the cortical network during the late period with multiple modulated cortico-cortical connections. The limited early cortical network likely allows for a rapid muscle response without involving high-level cognitive processes, while the complexity of the late network may facilitate coordinated responses.

  11. Development of face recognition: Dynamic causal modelling of MEG data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wei; Johnson, Blake W

    2018-04-01

    Electrophysiological studies of adults indicate that brain activity is enhanced during viewing of repeated faces, at a latency of about 250 ms after the onset of the face (M250/N250). The present study aimed to determine if this effect was also present in preschool-aged children, whose brain activity was measured in a custom-sized pediatric MEG system. The results showed that, unlike adults, face repetition did not show any significant modulation of M250 amplitude in children; however children's M250 latencies were significantly faster for repeated than non-repeated faces. Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of the M250 in both age groups tested the effects of face repetition within the core face network including the occipital face area (OFA), the fusiform face area (FFA), and the superior temporal sulcus (STS). DCM revealed that repetition of identical faces altered both forward and backward connections in children and adults; however the modulations involved inputs to both FFA and OFA in adults but only to OFA in children. These findings suggest that the amplitude-insensitivity of the immature M250 may be due to a weaker connection between the FFA and lower visual areas. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Development of face recognition: Dynamic causal modelling of MEG data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei He

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Electrophysiological studies of adults indicate that brain activity is enhanced during viewing of repeated faces, at a latency of about 250 ms after the onset of the face (M250/N250. The present study aimed to determine if this effect was also present in preschool-aged children, whose brain activity was measured in a custom-sized pediatric MEG system. The results showed that, unlike adults, face repetition did not show any significant modulation of M250 amplitude in children; however children’s M250 latencies were significantly faster for repeated than non-repeated faces. Dynamic causal modelling (DCM of the M250 in both age groups tested the effects of face repetition within the core face network including the occipital face area (OFA, the fusiform face area (FFA, and the superior temporal sulcus (STS. DCM revealed that repetition of identical faces altered both forward and backward connections in children and adults; however the modulations involved inputs to both FFA and OFA in adults but only to OFA in children. These findings suggest that the amplitude-insensitivity of the immature M250 may be due to a weaker connection between the FFA and lower visual areas. Keywords: MEG, Face recognition, Repetition, DCM, M250, M170

  13. Effective connectivity within the default mode network: dynamic causal modeling of resting-state fMRI data

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    Maksim eSharaev

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Default Mode Network (DMN is a brain system that mediates internal modes of cognitive activity, showing higher neural activation when one is at rest. Nowadays, there is a lot of interest in assessing functional interactions between its key regions, but in the majority of studies only association of BOLD (Blood-oxygen-level dependent activation patterns is measured, so it is impossible to identify causal influences. There are some studies of causal interactions (i.e. effective connectivity, however often with inconsistent results. The aim of the current work is to find a stable pattern of connectivity between four DMN key regions: the medial prefrontal cortex mPFC, the posterior cingulate cortex PCC, left and right intraparietal cortex LIPC and RIPC. For this purpose fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 healthy subjects (1000 time points from each one was acquired and spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM on a resting-state fMRI data was performed. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Discrete Cosine Set at the low frequency band of 0.0078–0.1 Hz. The best model at the group level is the one where connections from both bilateral IPC to mPFC and PCC are significant and symmetrical in strength (p<0.05. Connections between mPFC and PCC are bidirectional, significant in the group and weaker than connections originating from bilateral IPC. In general, all connections from LIPC/RIPC to other DMN regions are much stronger. One can assume that these regions have a driving role within the DMN. Our results replicate some data from earlier works on effective connectivity within the DMN as well as provide new insights on internal DMN relationships and brain’s functioning at resting state.

  14. Causal models in epidemiology: past inheritance and genetic future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriebel David

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The eruption of genetic research presents a tremendous opportunity to epidemiologists to improve our ability to identify causes of ill health. Epidemiologists have enthusiastically embraced the new tools of genomics and proteomics to investigate gene-environment interactions. We argue that neither the full import nor limitations of such studies can be appreciated without clarifying underlying theoretical models of interaction, etiologic fraction, and the fundamental concept of causality. We therefore explore different models of causality in the epidemiology of disease arising out of genes, environments, and the interplay between environments and genes. We begin from Rothman's "pie" model of necessary and sufficient causes, and then discuss newer approaches, which provide additional insights into multifactorial causal processes. These include directed acyclic graphs and structural equation models. Caution is urged in the application of two essential and closely related concepts found in many studies: interaction (effect modification and the etiologic or attributable fraction. We review these concepts and present four important limitations. 1. Interaction is a fundamental characteristic of any causal process involving a series of probabilistic steps, and not a second-order phenomenon identified after first accounting for "main effects". 2. Standard methods of assessing interaction do not adequately consider the life course, and the temporal dynamics through which an individual's sufficient cause is completed. Different individuals may be at different stages of development along the path to disease, but this is not usually measurable. Thus, for example, acquired susceptibility in children can be an important source of variation. 3. A distinction must be made between individual-based and population-level models. Most epidemiologic discussions of causality fail to make this distinction. 4. At the population level, there is additional

  15. (2+1)-dimensional quantum gravity as the continuum limit of causal dynamical triangulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedetti, D.; Loll, R.; Zamponi, F.

    2007-01-01

    We perform a nonperturbative sum over geometries in a (2+1)-dimensional quantum gravity model given in terms of causal dynamical triangulations. Inspired by the concept of triangulations of product type introduced previously, we impose an additional notion of order on the discrete, causal geometries. This simplifies the combinatorial problem of counting geometries just enough to enable us to calculate the transfer matrix between boundary states labeled by the area of the spatial universe, as well as the corresponding quantum Hamiltonian of the continuum theory. This is the first time in dimension larger than 2 that a Hamiltonian has been derived from such a model by mainly analytical means, and it opens the way for a better understanding of scaling and renormalization issues

  16. Dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked potentials in the rubber hand illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeller, Daniel; Friston, Karl J; Classen, Joseph

    2016-09-01

    The neural substrate of bodily ownership can be disclosed by the rubber hand illusion (RHI); namely, the illusory self-attribution of an artificial hand that is induced by synchronous tactile stimulation of the subject's hand that is hidden from view. Previous studies have pointed to the premotor cortex (PMC) as a pivotal area in such illusions. To investigate the effective connectivity between - and within - sensory and premotor areas involved in bodily perceptions, we used dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked responses in 13 healthy subjects. Each subject's right hand was stroked while viewing their own hand ("REAL"), or an artificial hand presented in an anatomically plausible ("CONGRUENT") or implausible ("INCONGRUENT") position. Bayesian model comparison revealed strong evidence for a differential involvement of the PMC in the generation of touch-evoked responses under the three conditions, confirming a crucial role of PMC in bodily self-attribution. In brief, the extrinsic (forward) connection from left occipital cortex to left PMC was stronger for CONGRUENT and INCONGRUENT as compared to REAL, reflecting the augmentation of bottom-up visual input when multisensory integration is challenged. Crucially, intrinsic connectivity in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) was attenuated in the CONGRUENT condition, during the illusory percept. These findings support predictive coding models of the functional architecture of multisensory integration (and attenuation) in bodily perceptual experience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Dynamic causal modeling of hippocampal links within the human default mode network: Lateralization and computational stability of effective connections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim Leonidovich Ushakov

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to study causal relationships between left and right hippocampal regions (LHIP and RHIP, respectively within the default mode network (DMN as represented by its key structures: the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC, posterior cingulate cortex (PCC and the inferior parietal cortex of left (LIPC and right (RIPC hemispheres. Furthermore, we were interested in testing the stability of the connectivity patterns when adding or deleting regions of interest. The functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data from a group of 30 healthy right-handed subjects in the resting state were collected and a connectivity analysis was performed. To model the effective connectivity, we used the spectral Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM. Three DCM analyses were completed. Two of them modeled interaction between five nodes that included four DMN key structures in addition to either LHIP or RHIP. The last DCM analysis modeled interactions between four nodes whereby one of the main DMN structures, PCC, was excluded from the analysis. The results of all DCM analyses indicated a high level of stability in the computational method: those parts of the winning models that included the key DMN structures demonstrated causal relations known from recent research. However, we discovered new results as well. First of all, we found a pronounced asymmetry in LHIP and RHIP connections. LHIP demonstrated a high involvement of DMN activity with preponderant information outflow to all other DMN regions. Causal interactions of LHIP were bidirectional only in the case of LIPC. On the contrary, RHIP was primarily affected by inputs from LIPC, RIPC and LHIP without influencing these or other DMN key structures. For the first time, an inhibitory link was found from MPFC to LIPC, which may indicate the subjects’ effort to maintain a resting state. Functional connectivity data echoed these results, though they also showed links not reflected in the patterns of

  18. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  19. Developmental maturation of dynamic causal control signals in higher-order cognition: a neurocognitive network model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaustubh Supekar

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive skills undergo protracted developmental changes resulting in proficiencies that are a hallmark of human cognition. One skill that develops over time is the ability to problem solve, which in turn relies on cognitive control and attention abilities. Here we use a novel multimodal neurocognitive network-based approach combining task-related fMRI, resting-state fMRI and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI to investigate the maturation of control processes underlying problem solving skills in 7-9 year-old children. Our analysis focused on two key neurocognitive networks implicated in a wide range of cognitive tasks including control: the insula-cingulate salience network, anchored in anterior insula (AI, ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex, and the fronto-parietal central executive network, anchored in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex (PPC. We found that, by age 9, the AI node of the salience network is a major causal hub initiating control signals during problem solving. Critically, despite stronger AI activation, the strength of causal regulatory influences from AI to the PPC node of the central executive network was significantly weaker and contributed to lower levels of behavioral performance in children compared to adults. These results were validated using two different analytic methods for estimating causal interactions in fMRI data. In parallel, DTI-based tractography revealed weaker AI-PPC structural connectivity in children. Our findings point to a crucial role of AI connectivity, and its causal cross-network influences, in the maturation of dynamic top-down control signals underlying cognitive development. Overall, our study demonstrates how a unified neurocognitive network model when combined with multimodal imaging enhances our ability to generalize beyond individual task-activated foci and provides a common framework for elucidating key features of brain and cognitive

  20. Exploring Torus Universes in Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budd, Timothy George; Loll, R.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the search for new observables in nonperturbative quantum gravity, we consider Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in 2+1 dimensions with the spatial topology of a torus. This system is of particular interest, because one can study not only the global scale factor, but also global...... shape variables in the presence of arbitrary quantum fluctuations of the geometry. Our initial investigation focusses on the dynamics of the scale factor and uncovers a qualitatively new behaviour, which leads us to investigate a novel type of boundary conditions for the path integral. Comparing large....... Apart from setting the stage for the analysis of shape dynamics on the torus, the new set-up highlights the role of nontrivial boundaries and topology....

  1. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  2. Discrete causal theory emergent spacetime and the causal metric hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    Dribus, Benjamin F

    2017-01-01

    This book evaluates and suggests potentially critical improvements to causal set theory, one of the best-motivated approaches to the outstanding problems of fundamental physics. Spacetime structure is of central importance to physics beyond general relativity and the standard model. The causal metric hypothesis treats causal relations as the basis of this structure. The book develops the consequences of this hypothesis under the assumption of a fundamental scale, with smooth spacetime geometry viewed as emergent. This approach resembles causal set theory, but differs in important ways; for example, the relative viewpoint, emphasizing relations between pairs of events, and relationships between pairs of histories, is central. The book culminates in a dynamical law for quantum spacetime, derived via generalized path summation.

  3. Identifying abnormal connectivity in patients using Dynamic Causal Modelling of fMRI responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed L Seghier

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Functional imaging studies of brain damaged patients offer a unique opportunity to understand how sensori-motor and cognitive tasks can be carried out when parts of the neural system that support normal performance are no longer available. In addition to knowing which regions a patient activates, we also need to know how these regions interact with one another, and how these inter-regional interactions deviate from normal. Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM offers the opportunity to assess task-dependent interactions within a set of regions. Here we review its use in patients when the question of interest concerns the characterisation of abnormal connectivity for a given pathology. We describe the currently available implementations of DCM for fMRI responses, varying from the deterministic bilinear models with one-state equation to the stochastic nonlinear models with two-state equations. We also highlight the importance of the new Bayesian model selection and averaging tools that allow different plausible models to be compared at the single subject and group level. These procedures allow inferences to be made at different levels of model selection, from features (model families to connectivity parameters. Following a critical review of previous DCM studies that investigated abnormal connectivity we propose a systematic procedure that will ensure more flexibility and efficiency when using DCM in patients. Finally, some practical and methodological issues crucial for interpreting or generalising DCM findings in patients are discussed.

  4. A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, John P.

    A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

  5. Abnormal resting state effective connectivity within the default mode network in major depressive disorder: A spectral dynamic causal modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Li, Baojuan; Bai, Yuanhan; Liu, Wenlei; Wang, Huaning; Leung, Hoi-Chung; Tian, Ping; Zhang, Linchuan; Guo, Fan; Cui, Long-Biao; Yin, Hong; Lu, Hongbing; Tan, Qingrong

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the neural basis underlying major depressive disorder (MDD) is essential for the diagnosis and treatment of this mental disorder. Aberrant activation and functional connectivity of the default mode network (DMN) have been consistently found in patients with MDD. It is not known whether effective connectivity within the DMN is altered in MDD. The primary object of this study is to investigate the effective connectivity within the DMN during resting state in MDD patients before and after eight weeks of antidepressant treatment. We defined four regions of the DMN (medial frontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, left parietal cortex, and right parietal cortex) for each participant using a group independent component analysis. The coupling parameters reflecting the causal interactions among the DMN regions were estimated using spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM). Twenty-seven MDD patients and 27 healthy controls were included in the statistical analysis. Our results showed declined influences from the left parietal cortex to other DMN regions in the pre-treatment patients as compared with healthy controls. After eight weeks of treatment, the influence from the right parietal cortex to the posterior cingulate cortex significantly decreased. These findings suggest that the reduced excitatory causal influence of the left parietal cortex is the key alteration of the DMN in patients with MDD, and the disrupted causal influences that parietal cortex exerts on the posterior cingulate cortex is responsive to antidepressant treatment.

  6. Modeling of causality with metamaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smolyaninov, Igor I

    2013-01-01

    Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space–time. While this model may be used to build interesting space–time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler–Feynman absorber theory of causality. (paper)

  7. A Temporal-Causal Modelling Approach to Integrated Contagion and Network Change in Social Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blankendaal, Romy; Parinussa, Sarah; Treur, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces an integrated temporal-causal model for dynamics in social networks addressing the contagion principle by which states are affected mutually, and both the homophily principle and the more-becomes-more principle by which connections are adapted over time. The integrated model

  8. Modeling aspects of wave kinematics in offshore structures dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spanos, P.D.; Ghanem, R.; Bhattacharjee, S.

    1993-01-01

    Magnitude and phase related issues of modeling of ocean wave kinematics are addressed. Causal and non-causal filters are examined. It is shown that if for a particular ocean engineering problem only the magnitude representation of wave spectra spatial relation is critical, analog filters can be quite useful models in conjunction with the technique of statistical linearization, for calculating dynamic analyses. This is illustrated by considering the dynamic response of a simple model of a guyed tower

  9. Causal Bayes Model of Mathematical Competence in Kindergarten

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božidar Tepeš

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper authors define mathematical competences in the kindergarten. The basic objective was to measure the mathematical competences or mathematical knowledge, skills and abilities in mathematical education. Mathematical competences were grouped in the following areas: Arithmetic and Geometry. Statistical set consisted of 59 children, 65 to 85 months of age, from the Kindergarten Milan Sachs from Zagreb. The authors describe 13 variables for measuring mathematical competences. Five measuring variables were described for the geometry, and eight measuring variables for the arithmetic. Measuring variables are tasks which children solved with the evaluated results. By measuring mathematical competences the authors make causal Bayes model using free software Tetrad 5.2.1-3. Software makes many causal Bayes models and authors as experts chose the model of the mathematical competences in the kindergarten. Causal Bayes model describes five levels for mathematical competences. At the end of the modeling authors use Bayes estimator. In the results, authors describe by causal Bayes model of mathematical competences, causal effect mathematical competences or how intervention on some competences cause other competences. Authors measure mathematical competences with their expectation as random variables. When expectation of competences was greater, competences improved. Mathematical competences can be improved with intervention on causal competences. Levels of mathematical competences and the result of intervention on mathematical competences can help mathematical teachers.

  10. How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsler, Paul

    2011-01-01

    I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

  11. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  12. Network interactions underlying mirror feedback in stroke: A dynamic causal modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soha Saleh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Mirror visual feedback (MVF is potentially a powerful tool to facilitate recovery of disordered movement and stimulate activation of under-active brain areas due to stroke. The neural mechanisms underlying MVF have therefore been a focus of recent inquiry. Although it is known that sensorimotor areas can be activated via mirror feedback, the network interactions driving this effect remain unknown. The aim of the current study was to fill this gap by using dynamic causal modeling to test the interactions between regions in the frontal and parietal lobes that may be important for modulating the activation of the ipsilesional motor cortex during mirror visual feedback of unaffected hand movement in stroke patients. Our intent was to distinguish between two theoretical neural mechanisms that might mediate ipsilateral activation in response to mirror-feedback: transfer of information between bilateral motor cortices versus recruitment of regions comprising an action observation network which in turn modulate the motor cortex. In an event-related fMRI design, fourteen chronic stroke subjects performed goal-directed finger flexion movements with their unaffected hand while observing real-time visual feedback of the corresponding (veridical or opposite (mirror hand in virtual reality. Among 30 plausible network models that were tested, the winning model revealed significant mirror feedback-based modulation of the ipsilesional motor cortex arising from the contralesional parietal cortex, in a region along the rostral extent of the intraparietal sulcus. No winning model was identified for the veridical feedback condition. We discuss our findings in the context of supporting the latter hypothesis, that mirror feedback-based activation of motor cortex may be attributed to engagement of a contralateral (contralesional action observation network. These findings may have important implications for identifying putative cortical areas, which may be targeted with

  13. Dynamic causal modeling revealed dysfunctional effective connectivity in both, the cortico-basal-ganglia and the cerebello-cortical motor network in writers' cramp

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inken Rothkirch

    Full Text Available Writer's cramp (WC is a focal task-specific dystonia characterized by sustained or intermittent muscle contractions while writing, particularly with the dominant hand. Since structural lesions rarely cause WC, it has been assumed that the disease might be caused by a functional maladaptation within the sensory-motor system. Therefore, our objective was to examine the differences between patients suffering from WC and a healthy control (HC group with regard to the effective connectivity that describes causal influences one brain region exerts over another within the motor network. The effective connectivity within a network including contralateral motor cortex (M1, supplementary motor area (SMA, globus pallidus (GP, putamen (PU and ipsilateral cerebellum (CB was investigated using dynamic causal modeling (DCM for fMRI. Eight connectivity models of functional motor systems were compared. Fifteen WC patients and 18 age-matched HC performed a sequential, five-element finger-tapping task with the non-dominant and non-affected left hand within a 3 T MRI-scanner as quickly and accurately as possible. The task was conducted in a fixed block design repeated 15 times and included 30 s of tapping followed by 30 s of rest. DCM identified the same model in WC and HC as superior for reflecting basal ganglia and cerebellar motor circuits of healthy subjects. The M1-PU, as well as M1-CB connectivity, was more strongly influenced by tapping in WC, but the intracortical M1-SMA connection was more facilitating in controls. Inhibiting influences originating from GP to M1 were stronger in controls compared to WC patients whereby facilitating influences the PU exerts over CB and CB exerts over M1 were not as strong. Although the same model structure explains the given data best, DCM confirms previous research demonstrating a malfunction in effective connectivity intracortically (M1-SMA and in the cortico-basal ganglia circuitry in WC. In addition, DCM analysis

  14. Exploring manual asymmetries during grasping: a dynamic causal modeling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara eBegliomini

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Recording of neural activity during grasping actions in macaques showed that grasp-related sensorimotor transformations are accomplished in a circuit constituted by the anterior part of the intraparietal sulcus (AIP, the ventral (F5 and the dorsal (F2 region of the premotor area. In humans, neuroimaging studies have revealed the existence of a similar circuit, involving the putative homolog of macaque areas AIP, F5 and F2. These studies have mainly considered grasping movements performed with the right dominant hand and only a few studies have measured brain activity associated with a movement performed with the left non-dominant hand. As a consequence of this gap, how the brain controls for grasping movement performed with the dominant and the non-dominant hand still represents an open question. A functional resonance imaging experiment (fMRI has been conducted, and effective connectivity (Dynamic Causal Modelling, DCM was used to assess how connectivity among grasping-related areas is modulated by hand (i.e., left and right during the execution of grasping movements towards a small object requiring precision grasping. Results underlined boosted inter-hemispheric couplings between dorsal premotor cortices during the execution of movements performed with the left rather than the right dominant hand. More specifically, they suggest that the dorsal premotor cortices may play a fundamental role in monitoring the configuration of fingers when grasping movements are performed by either the right and the left hand. This role becomes particularly evident when the hand less-skilled (i.e., the left hand to perform such action is utilized. The results are discussed in light of recent theories put forward to explain how parieto-frontal connectivity is modulated by the execution of prehensile movements.

  15. From causal dynamical triangulations to astronomical observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielczarek, Jakub

    2017-09-01

    This letter discusses phenomenological aspects of dimensional reduction predicted by the Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) approach to quantum gravity. The deformed form of the dispersion relation for the fields defined on the CDT space-time is reconstructed. Using the Fermi satellite observations of the GRB 090510 source we find that the energy scale of the dimensional reduction is E* > 0.7 \\sqrt{4-d\\text{UV}} \\cdot 1010 \\text{GeV} at (95% CL), where d\\text{UV} is the value of the spectral dimension in the UV limit. By applying the deformed dispersion relation to the cosmological perturbations it is shown that, for a scenario when the primordial perturbations are formed in the UV region, the scalar power spectrum PS \\propto kn_S-1 , where n_S-1≈ \\frac{3 r (d\\text{UV}-2)}{(d\\text{UV}-1)r-48} . Here, r is the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We find that within the considered model, the predicted from CDT deviation from the scale invariance (n_S=1) is in contradiction with the up to date Planck and BICEP2.

  16. [Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

    2014-02-01

    Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

  17. Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charakopoulos, A. K.; Katsouli, G. A.; Karakasidis, T. E.

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the underlying processes and extracting detailed characteristics of spatiotemporal dynamics of ocean and atmosphere as well as their interaction is of significant interest and has not been well thoroughly established. The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of two main additional methodologies for the identification of spatiotemporal underlying dynamic characteristics and patterns among atmospheric and oceanic variables from Seawatch buoys from Aegean and Ionian Sea, provided by the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR). The first approach involves the estimation of cross correlation analysis in an attempt to investigate time-lagged relationships, and further in order to identify the direction of interactions between the variables we performed the Granger causality method. According to the second approach the time series are converted into complex networks and then the main topological network properties such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity and clustering coefficient are evaluated. Our results show that the proposed analysis of complex network analysis of time series can lead to the extraction of hidden spatiotemporal characteristics. Also our findings indicate high level of positive and negative correlations and causalities among variables, both from the same buoy and also between buoys from different stations, which cannot be determined from the use of simple statistical measures.

  18. Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2018-06-01

    The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

  19. Causal knowledge promotes behavioral self-regulation: An example using climate change dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David K Sewell

    Full Text Available Adopting successful climate change mitigation policies requires the public to choose how to balance the sometimes competing goals of managing CO2 emissions and achieving economic growth. It follows that collective action on climate change depends on members of the public to be knowledgeable of the causes and economic ramifications of climate change. The existing literature, however, shows that people often struggle to correctly reason about the fundamental accumulation dynamics that drive climate change. Previous research has focused on using analogy to improve people's reasoning about accumulation, which has been met with some success. However, these existing studies have neglected the role economic factors might play in shaping people's decisions in relation to climate change. Here, we introduce a novel iterated decision task in which people attempt to achieve a specific economic goal by interacting with a causal dynamic system in which human economic activities, CO2 emissions, and warming are all causally interrelated. We show that when the causal links between these factors are highlighted, people's ability to achieve the economic goal of the task is enhanced in a way that approaches optimal responding, and avoids dangerous levels of warming.

  20. Scaling analyses of the spectral dimension in 3-dimensional causal dynamical triangulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooperman, Joshua H.

    2018-05-01

    The spectral dimension measures the dimensionality of a space as witnessed by a diffusing random walker. Within the causal dynamical triangulations approach to the quantization of gravity (Ambjørn et al 2000 Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 347, 2001 Nucl. Phys. B 610 347, 1998 Nucl. Phys. B 536 407), the spectral dimension exhibits novel scale-dependent dynamics: reducing towards a value near 2 on sufficiently small scales, matching closely the topological dimension on intermediate scales, and decaying in the presence of positive curvature on sufficiently large scales (Ambjørn et al 2005 Phys. Rev. Lett. 95 171301, Ambjørn et al 2005 Phys. Rev. D 72 064014, Benedetti and Henson 2009 Phys. Rev. D 80 124036, Cooperman 2014 Phys. Rev. D 90 124053, Cooperman et al 2017 Class. Quantum Grav. 34 115008, Coumbe and Jurkiewicz 2015 J. High Energy Phys. JHEP03(2015)151, Kommu 2012 Class. Quantum Grav. 29 105003). I report the first comprehensive scaling analysis of the small-to-intermediate scale spectral dimension for the test case of the causal dynamical triangulations of 3-dimensional Einstein gravity. I find that the spectral dimension scales trivially with the diffusion constant. I find that the spectral dimension is completely finite in the infinite volume limit, and I argue that its maximal value is exactly consistent with the topological dimension of 3 in this limit. I find that the spectral dimension reduces further towards a value near 2 as this case’s bare coupling approaches its phase transition, and I present evidence against the conjecture that the bare coupling simply sets the overall scale of the quantum geometry (Ambjørn et al 2001 Phys. Rev. D 64 044011). On the basis of these findings, I advance a tentative physical explanation for the dynamical reduction of the spectral dimension observed within causal dynamical triangulations: branched polymeric quantum geometry on sufficiently small scales. My analyses should facilitate attempts to employ the spectral

  1. System dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Do Hun; Mun, Tae Hun; Kim, Dong Hwan

    1999-02-01

    This book introduces systems thinking and conceptual tool and modeling tool of dynamics system such as tragedy of single thinking, accessible way of system dynamics, feedback structure and causal loop diagram analysis, basic of system dynamics modeling, causal loop diagram and system dynamics modeling, information delay modeling, discovery and application for policy, modeling of crisis of agricultural and stock breeding products, dynamic model and lesson in ecosystem, development and decadence of cites and innovation of education forward system thinking.

  2. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  3. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  4. Hippocampal-prefrontal engagement and dynamic causal interactions in the maturation of children's fact retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Soohyun; Metcalfe, Arron W S; Young, Christina B; Ryali, Srikanth; Geary, David C; Menon, Vinod

    2012-09-01

    Children's gains in problem-solving skills during the elementary school years are characterized by shifts in the mix of problem-solving approaches, with inefficient procedural strategies being gradually replaced with direct retrieval of domain-relevant facts. We used a well-established procedure for strategy assessment during arithmetic problem solving to investigate the neural basis of this critical transition. We indexed behavioral strategy use by focusing on the retrieval frequency and examined changes in brain activity and connectivity associated with retrieval fluency during arithmetic problem solving in second- and third-grade (7- to 9-year-old) children. Children with higher retrieval fluency showed elevated signal in the right hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), lingual gyrus (LG), fusiform gyrus (FG), left ventrolateral PFC (VLPFC), bilateral dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC), and posterior angular gyrus. Critically, these effects were not confounded by individual differences in problem-solving speed or accuracy. Psychophysiological interaction analysis revealed significant effective connectivity of the right hippocampus with bilateral VLPFC and DLPFC during arithmetic problem solving. Dynamic causal modeling analysis revealed strong bidirectional interactions between the hippocampus and the left VLPFC and DLPFC. Furthermore, causal influences from the left VLPFC to the hippocampus served as the main top-down component, whereas causal influences from the hippocampus to the left DLPFC served as the main bottom-up component of this retrieval network. Our study highlights the contribution of hippocampal-prefrontal circuits to the early development of retrieval fluency in arithmetic problem solving and provides a novel framework for studying dynamic developmental processes that accompany children's development of problem-solving skills.

  5. Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Lemeire

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.

  6. Accelerating transition dynamics in city regions: A qualitative modeling perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.J. Valkering (Pieter); Yücel, G. (Gönenç); Gebetsroither-Geringer, E. (Ernst); Markvica, K. (Karin); Meynaerts, E. (Erika); N. Frantzeskaki (Niki)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn this article, we take stock of the findings from conceptual and empirical work on the role of transition initiatives for accelerating transitions as input for modeling acceleration dynamics. We applied the qualitative modeling approach of causal loop diagrams to capture the dynamics

  7. Theories of conduct disorder: a causal modelling analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, N.P.C.M.; Morton, J.; Bruyn, E.E.J. De

    2004-01-01

    Background: If a clinician has to make decisions on diagnosis and treatment, he or she is confronted with a variety of causal theories. In order to compare these theories a neutral terminology and notational system is needed. The Causal Modelling framework involving three levels of description –

  8. The Integrated Use of Enterprise and System Dynamics Modelling Techniques in Support of Business Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Agyapong-Kodua

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Enterprise modelling techniques support business process (reengineering by capturing existing processes and based on perceived outputs, support the design of future process models capable of meeting enterprise requirements. System dynamics modelling tools on the other hand are used extensively for policy analysis and modelling aspects of dynamics which impact on businesses. In this paper, the use of enterprise and system dynamics modelling techniques has been integrated to facilitate qualitative and quantitative reasoning about the structures and behaviours of processes and resource systems used by a Manufacturing Enterprise during the production of composite bearings. The case study testing reported has led to the specification of a new modelling methodology for analysing and managing dynamics and complexities in production systems. This methodology is based on a systematic transformation process, which synergises the use of a selection of public domain enterprise modelling, causal loop and continuous simulation modelling techniques. The success of the modelling process defined relies on the creation of useful CIMOSA process models which are then converted to causal loops. The causal loop models are then structured and translated to equivalent dynamic simulation models using the proprietary continuous simulation modelling tool iThink.

  9. Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models.

  10. Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju; Kang, Kyung Min

    2009-01-01

    It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models

  11. Moment problems and the causal set approach to quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ash, Avner; McDonald, Patrick

    2003-01-01

    We study a collection of discrete Markov chains related to the causal set approach to modeling discrete theories of quantum gravity. The transition probabilities of these chains satisfy a general covariance principle, a causality principle, and a renormalizability condition. The corresponding dynamics are completely determined by a sequence of non-negative real coupling constants. Using techniques related to the classical moment problem, we give a complete description of any such sequence of coupling constants. We prove a representation theorem: every discrete theory of quantum gravity arising from causal set dynamics satisfying covariance, causality, and renormalizability corresponds to a unique probability distribution function on the non-negative real numbers, with the coupling constants defining the theory given by the moments of the distribution

  12. THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMRAH İSMAİL ÇEVİK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB. Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996 is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

  13. Causal and causally separable processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-09-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  14. Causal and causally separable processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-01-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B , either A is in the causal past of B , B is in the causal past of A , or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B , an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A ’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  15. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Exploring Causal Models of Educational Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkerson, Jo Ann; And Others

    1984-01-01

    This article evaluates five causal model of educational productivity applied to learning science in a sample of 882 fifth through eighth graders. Each model explores the relationship between achievement and a combination of eight constructs: home environment, peer group, media, ability, social environment, time on task, motivation, and…

  17. Causal Reasoning with Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-08

    The initial rubric is equivalent to an exclusive disjunction between the two causal assertions. It 488 yields the following two mental models: 489...are 575 important, whereas the functions of artifacts are important (Ahn, 1998). A genetic code is 576 accordingly more critical to being a goat than

  18. Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

  19. Vector Autoregressive Models and Granger Causality in Time Series Analysis in Nursing Research: Dynamic Changes Among Vital Signs Prior to Cardiorespiratory Instability Events as an Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Eliezer; Hravnak, Marilyn; Sereika, Susan M

    Patients undergoing continuous vital sign monitoring (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], pulse oximetry [SpO2]) in real time display interrelated vital sign changes during situations of physiological stress. Patterns in this physiological cross-talk could portend impending cardiorespiratory instability (CRI). Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling with Granger causality tests is one of the most flexible ways to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms in time series data. The purpose of this article is to illustrate the development of patient-specific VAR models using vital sign time series data in a sample of acutely ill, monitored, step-down unit patients and determine their Granger causal dynamics prior to onset of an incident CRI. CRI was defined as vital signs beyond stipulated normality thresholds (HR = 40-140/minute, RR = 8-36/minute, SpO2 time segment prior to onset of first CRI was chosen for time series modeling in 20 patients using a six-step procedure: (a) the uniform time series for each vital sign was assessed for stationarity, (b) appropriate lag was determined using a lag-length selection criteria, (c) the VAR model was constructed, (d) residual autocorrelation was assessed with the Lagrange Multiplier test, (e) stability of the VAR system was checked, and (f) Granger causality was evaluated in the final stable model. The primary cause of incident CRI was low SpO2 (60% of cases), followed by out-of-range RR (30%) and HR (10%). Granger causality testing revealed that change in RR caused change in HR (21%; i.e., RR changed before HR changed) more often than change in HR causing change in RR (15%). Similarly, changes in RR caused changes in SpO2 (15%) more often than changes in SpO2 caused changes in RR (9%). For HR and SpO2, changes in HR causing changes in SpO2 and changes in SpO2 causing changes in HR occurred with equal frequency (18%). Within this sample of acutely ill patients who experienced a CRI event, VAR modeling indicated that RR changes

  20. Dynamics of safety performance and culture: a group model building approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Yang Miang; Love, Peter E D; Stagbouer, Greg; Annesley, Chris

    2012-09-01

    The management of occupational health and safety (OHS) including safety culture interventions is comprised of complex problems that are often hard to scope and define. Due to the dynamic nature and complexity of OHS management, the concept of system dynamics (SD) is used to analyze accident prevention. In this paper, a system dynamics group model building (GMB) approach is used to create a causal loop diagram of the underlying factors influencing the OHS performance of a major drilling and mining contractor in Australia. While the organization has invested considerable resources into OHS their disabling injury frequency rate (DIFR) has not been decreasing. With this in mind, rich individualistic knowledge about the dynamics influencing the DIFR was acquired from experienced employees with operations, health and safety and training background using a GMB workshop. Findings derived from the workshop were used to develop a series of causal loop diagrams that includes a wide range of dynamics that can assist in better understanding the causal influences OHS performance. The causal loop diagram provides a tool for organizations to hypothesize the dynamics influencing effectiveness of OHS management, particularly the impact on DIFR. In addition the paper demonstrates that the SD GMB approach has significant potential in understanding and improving OHS management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Effect of science teaching on the young child's concept of piagetian physical causality: Animism and dynamism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfinger, Donna M.

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether the young child's understanding of physical causality is affected by school science instruction. Sixty-four subjects, four and one-half through seven years of age, received 300 min of instruction designed to affect the subject's conception of causality as reflected in animism and dynamism. Instruction took place for 30 min per day on ten successive school days. Pretesting was done to allow a stratified random sample to be based on vocabulary level and developmental stage as well as on age and gender. Post-testing consisted of testing of developmental level and level within the causal relations of animism and dynamism. Significant differences (1.05 level) were found between the experimental and control groups for animism. Within the experimental group, males differed significantly (1.001 level) from females. The elimination of animism appeared to have occurred. For dynamism, significant differences (0.05 level) were found only between concrete operational subjects in the experimental and control groups, indicating a concrete level of operations was necessary if dynamism was to be affected. However, a review of interview protocols indicated that subjects classified as nonanimistic had learned to apply a definition rather than to think in a nonanimistic manner.

  2. Multifactorial causal model of brain (dis)organization and therapeutic intervention: Application to Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Carbonell, Félix M; Sotero, Roberto C; Chouinard-Decorte, Francois; Evans, Alan C

    2017-05-15

    Generative models focused on multifactorial causal mechanisms in brain disorders are scarce and generally based on limited data. Despite the biological importance of the multiple interacting processes, their effects remain poorly characterized from an integrative analytic perspective. Here, we propose a spatiotemporal multifactorial causal model (MCM) of brain (dis)organization and therapeutic intervention that accounts for local causal interactions, effects propagation via physical brain networks, cognitive alterations, and identification of optimum therapeutic interventions. In this article, we focus on describing the model and applying it at the population-based level for studying late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD). By interrelating six different neuroimaging modalities and cognitive measurements, this model accurately predicts spatiotemporal alterations in brain amyloid-β (Aβ) burden, glucose metabolism, vascular flow, resting state functional activity, structural properties, and cognitive integrity. The results suggest that a vascular dysregulation may be the most-likely initial pathologic event leading to LOAD. Nevertheless, they also suggest that LOAD it is not caused by a unique dominant biological factor (e.g. vascular or Aβ) but by the complex interplay among multiple relevant direct interactions. Furthermore, using theoretical control analysis of the identified population-based multifactorial causal network, we show the crucial advantage of using combinatorial over single-target treatments, explain why one-target Aβ based therapies might fail to improve clinical outcomes, and propose an efficiency ranking of possible LOAD interventions. Although still requiring further validation at the individual level, this work presents the first analytic framework for dynamic multifactorial brain (dis)organization that may explain both the pathologic evolution of progressive neurological disorders and operationalize the influence of multiple interventional

  3. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salazar-Ferrer, P.

    1995-06-01

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators' cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs

  4. The causal pie model: an epidemiological method applied to evolutionary biology and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wensink, Maarten; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Baudisch, Annette

    2014-05-01

    A general concept for thinking about causality facilitates swift comprehension of results, and the vocabulary that belongs to the concept is instrumental in cross-disciplinary communication. The causal pie model has fulfilled this role in epidemiology and could be of similar value in evolutionary biology and ecology. In the causal pie model, outcomes result from sufficient causes. Each sufficient cause is made up of a "causal pie" of "component causes". Several different causal pies may exist for the same outcome. If and only if all component causes of a sufficient cause are present, that is, a causal pie is complete, does the outcome occur. The effect of a component cause hence depends on the presence of the other component causes that constitute some causal pie. Because all component causes are equally and fully causative for the outcome, the sum of causes for some outcome exceeds 100%. The causal pie model provides a way of thinking that maps into a number of recurrent themes in evolutionary biology and ecology: It charts when component causes have an effect and are subject to natural selection, and how component causes affect selection on other component causes; which partitions of outcomes with respect to causes are feasible and useful; and how to view the composition of a(n apparently homogeneous) population. The diversity of specific results that is directly understood from the causal pie model is a test for both the validity and the applicability of the model. The causal pie model provides a common language in which results across disciplines can be communicated and serves as a template along which future causal analyses can be made.

  5. Causal reasoning in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Frisch, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

  6. Entanglement, non-Markovianity, and causal non-separability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milz, Simon; Pollock, Felix A.; Le, Thao P.; Chiribella, Giulio; Modi, Kavan

    2018-03-01

    Quantum mechanics, in principle, allows for processes with indefinite causal order. However, most of these causal anomalies have not yet been detected experimentally. We show that every such process can be simulated experimentally by means of non-Markovian dynamics with a measurement on additional degrees of freedom. In detail, we provide an explicit construction to implement arbitrary a causal processes. Furthermore, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for open system dynamics with measurement to yield processes that respect causality locally, and find that tripartite entanglement and nonlocal unitary transformations are crucial requirements for the simulation of causally indefinite processes. These results show a direct connection between three counter-intuitive concepts: entanglement, non-Markovianity, and causal non-separability.

  7. System dynamics and control with bond graph modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kypuros, Javier

    2013-01-01

    Part I Dynamic System ModelingIntroduction to System DynamicsIntroductionSystem Decomposition and Model ComplexityMathematical Modeling of Dynamic SystemsAnalysis and Design of Dynamic SystemsControl of Dynamic SystemsDiagrams of Dynamic SystemsA Graph-Centered Approach to ModelingSummaryPracticeExercisesBasic Bond Graph ElementsIntroductionPower and Energy VariablesBasic 1-Port ElementsBasic 2-Ports ElementsJunction ElementsSimple Bond Graph ExamplesSummaryPracticeExercisesBond Graph Synthesis and Equation DerivationIntroductionGeneral GuidelinesMechanical TranslationMechanical RotationElectrical CircuitsHydraulic CircuitsMixed SystemsState Equation DerivationState-Space RepresentationsAlgebraic Loops and Derivative CausalitySummaryPracticeExercisesImpedance Bond GraphsIntroductionLaplace Transform of the State-Space EquationBasic 1-Port ImpedancesImpedance Bond Graph SynthesisJunctions, Transformers, and GyratorsEffort and Flow DividersSign ChangesTransfer Function DerivationAlternative Derivation of Transf...

  8. Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

  9. Capturing connectivity and causality in complex industrial processes

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Fan; Shah, Sirish L; Chen, Tongwen

    2014-01-01

    This brief reviews concepts of inter-relationship in modern industrial processes, biological and social systems. Specifically ideas of connectivity and causality within and between elements of a complex system are treated; these ideas are of great importance in analysing and influencing mechanisms, structural properties and their dynamic behaviour, especially for fault diagnosis and hazard analysis. Fault detection and isolation for industrial processes being concerned with root causes and fault propagation, the brief shows that, process connectivity and causality information can be captured in two ways: ·      from process knowledge: structural modeling based on first-principles structural models can be merged with adjacency/reachability matrices or topology models obtained from process flow-sheets described in standard formats; and ·      from process data: cross-correlation analysis, Granger causality and its extensions, frequency domain methods, information-theoretical methods, and Bayesian ne...

  10. Model selection approach suggests causal association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Zgaga

    Full Text Available Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC, but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders.Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD, genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions.Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model, and also for deviance information criteria (DIC computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores.Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations.

  11. Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

  12. Causal Agency Theory: Reconceptualizing a Functional Model of Self-Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shogren, Karrie A.; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Palmer, Susan B.; Forber-Pratt, Anjali J.; Little, Todd J.; Lopez, Shane

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces Causal Agency Theory, an extension of the functional model of self-determination. Causal Agency Theory addresses the need for interventions and assessments pertaining to selfdetermination for all students and incorporates the significant advances in understanding of disability and in the field of positive psychology since the…

  13. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models and Granger Causality in Time Series Analysis in Nursing Research: Dynamic Changes Among Vital Signs Prior to Cardiorespiratory Instability Events as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Eliezer; Hravnak, Marilyn; Sereika, Susan M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients undergoing continuous vital sign monitoring (heart rate [HR], respiratory rate [RR], pulse oximetry [SpO2]) in real time display inter-related vital sign changes during situations of physiologic stress. Patterns in this physiological cross-talk could portend impending cardiorespiratory instability (CRI). Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling with Granger causality tests is one of the most flexible ways to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms in time series data. Purpose The purpose of this article is to illustrate development of patient-specific VAR models using vital sign time series (VSTS) data in a sample of acutely ill, monitored, step-down unit (SDU) patients, and determine their Granger causal dynamics prior to onset of an incident CRI. Approach CRI was defined as vital signs beyond stipulated normality thresholds (HR = 40–140/minute, RR = 8–36/minute, SpO2 < 85%) and persisting for 3 minutes within a 5-minute moving window (60% of the duration of the window). A 6-hour time segment prior to onset of first CRI was chosen for time series modeling in 20 patients using a six-step procedure: (a) the uniform time series for each vital sign was assessed for stationarity; (b) appropriate lag was determined using a lag-length selection criteria; (c) the VAR model was constructed; (d) residual autocorrelation was assessed with the Lagrange Multiplier test; (e) stability of the VAR system was checked; and (f) Granger causality was evaluated in the final stable model. Results The primary cause of incident CRI was low SpO2 (60% of cases), followed by out-of-range RR (30%) and HR (10%). Granger causality testing revealed that change in RR caused change in HR (21%) (i.e., RR changed before HR changed) more often than change in HR causing change in RR (15%). Similarly, changes in RR caused changes in SpO2 (15%) more often than changes in SpO2 caused changes in RR (9%). For HR and SpO2, changes in HR causing changes in SpO2 and changes in SpO2 causing

  14. A quantum causal discovery algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

    2018-03-01

    Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

  15. Causality violation, gravitational shockwaves and UV completion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-18

    The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of “time machines”, i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate how the resulting causality problems emerge and are resolved in a two-shockwave time machine scenario. The implications of our results for ultra-high (Planck) energy scattering, in which graviton exchange is modelled by the shockwave background, are highlighted.

  16. A Causal Model of Faculty Turnover Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, John C.

    1990-01-01

    A causal model assesses the relative influence of individual attributes, institutional characteristics, contextual-work environment variables, and multiple measures of job satisfaction on faculty intentions to leave their current institutions. Factors considered include tenure status, age, institutional status, governance style, organizational…

  17. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators; Raisonnement causal et modelisation de l`activite cognitive d`operateurs de chaufferie nucleaire navale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Ferrer, P

    1995-06-01

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators` cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs.

  18. Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmillan, Alexandra; Woodcock, James

    2017-12-01

    Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights. The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands. A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low

  19. Classical Causal Models for Bell and Kochen-Specker Inequality Violations Require Fine-Tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric G. Cavalcanti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Nonlocality and contextuality are at the root of conceptual puzzles in quantum mechanics, and they are key resources for quantum advantage in information-processing tasks. Bell nonlocality is best understood as the incompatibility between quantum correlations and the classical theory of causality, applied to relativistic causal structure. Contextuality, on the other hand, is on a more controversial foundation. In this work, I provide a common conceptual ground between nonlocality and contextuality as violations of classical causality. First, I show that Bell inequalities can be derived solely from the assumptions of no signaling and no fine-tuning of the causal model. This removes two extra assumptions from a recent result from Wood and Spekkens and, remarkably, does not require any assumption related to independence of measurement settings—unlike all other derivations of Bell inequalities. I then introduce a formalism to represent contextuality scenarios within causal models and show that all classical causal models for violations of a Kochen-Specker inequality require fine-tuning. Thus, the quantum violation of classical causality goes beyond the case of spacelike-separated systems and already manifests in scenarios involving single systems.

  20. Exploring causal networks of bovine milk fatty acids in a multivariate mixed model context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouwman, Aniek C; Valente, Bruno D; Janss, Luc L G

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge regarding causal relationships among traits is important to understand complex biological systems. Structural equation models (SEM) can be used to quantify the causal relations between traits, which allow prediction of outcomes to interventions applied to such a network. Such models...... are fitted conditionally on a causal structure among traits, represented by a directed acyclic graph and an Inductive Causation (IC) algorithm can be used to search for causal structures. The aim of this study was to explore the space of causal structures involving bovine milk fatty acids and to select...

  1. Causal Rasch models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jackson Stenner

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Rasch’s unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities, measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items, and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments. Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct. We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  2. Causal Rasch models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A Jackson; Fisher, William P; Stone, Mark H; Burdick, Donald S

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  3. Causal Rasch models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained. PMID:23986726

  4. Optimization of a dynamic uncertain causality graph for fault diagnosis in nuclear power plant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yue Zhao; Francesco Di Maio; Enrico Zio; Qin Zhang; Chun-Ling Dong; Jin-Ying Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Fault diagnostics is important for safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs).In recent years,data-driven approaches have been proposed and implemented to tackle the problem,e.g.,neural networks,fuzzy and neurofuzzy approaches,support vector machine,K-nearest neighbor classifiers and inference methodologies.Among these methods,dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG)has been proved effective in many practical cases.However,the causal graph construction behind the DUCG is complicate and,in many cases,results redundant on the symptoms needed to correctly classify the fault.In this paper,we propose a method to simplify causal graph construction in an automatic way.The method consists in transforming the expert knowledge-based DCUG into a fuzzy decision tree (FDT) by extracting from the DUCG a fuzzy rule base that resumes the used symptoms at the basis of the FDT.Genetic algorithm (GA) is,then,used for the optimization of the FDT,by performing a wrapper search around the FDT:the set of symptoms selected during the iterative search are taken as the best set of symptoms for the diagnosis of the faults that can occur in the system.The effectiveness of the approach is shown with respect to a DUCG model initially built to diagnose 23 faults originally using 262 symptoms of Unit-1 in the Ningde NPP of the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation.The results show that the FDT,with GA-optimized symptoms and diagnosis strategy,can drive the construction of DUCG and lower the computational burden without loss of accuracy in diagnosis.

  5. Optimization of a dynamic uncertain causality graph for fault diagnosis in nuclear power plant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yue Zhao; Francesco Di Maio; Enrico Zio; Qin Zhang; Chun-Ling Dong; Jin-Ying Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Fault diagnostics is important for safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs).In recent years,data-driven approaches have been proposed and implemented to tackle the problem,e.g.,neural networks,fuzzy and neurofuzzy approaches,support vector machine,K-nearest neighbor classifiers and inference methodologies.Among these methods,dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) has been proved effective in many practical cases.However,the causal graph construction behind the DUCG is complicate and,in many cases,results redundant on the symptoms needed to correctly classify the fault.In this paper,we propose a method to simplify causal graph construction in an automatic way.The method consists in transforming the expert knowledge-based DCUG into a fuzzy decision tree (FDT) by extracting from the DUCG a fuzzy rule base that resumes the used symptoms at the basis of the FDT.Genetic algorithm (GA) is,then,used for the optimization of the FDT,by performing a wrapper search around the FDT:the set of symptoms selected during the iterative search are taken as the best set of symptoms for the diagnosis of the faults that can occur in the system.The effectiveness of the approach is shown with respect to a DUCG model initially built to diagnose 23 faults originally using 262 symptoms of Unit-1 in the Ningde NPP of the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation.The results show that the FDT,with GA-optimized symptoms and diagnosis strategy,can drive the construction of DUCG and lower the computational burden without loss of accuracy in diagnosis.

  6. Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

    2011-01-01

    Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

  7. Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

  8. Reasoning with Causal Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob

    2017-01-01

    This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

  9. From Ordinary Differential Equations to Structural Causal Models: the deterministic case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, J.M.; Janzing, D.; Schölkopf, B.; Nicholson, A.; Smyth, P.

    2013-01-01

    We show how, and under which conditions, the equilibrium states of a first-order Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system can be described with a deterministic Structural Causal Model (SCM). Our exposition sheds more light on the concept of causality as expressed within the framework of

  10. Entropy for theories with indefinite causal structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markes, Sonia; Hardy, Lucien

    2011-01-01

    Any theory with definite causal structure has a defined past and future, be it defined by light cones or an absolute time scale. Entropy is a concept that has traditionally been reliant on a definite notion of causality. However, without a definite notion of causality, the concept of entropy is not all lost. Indefinite causal structure results from combining probabilistic predictions and dynamical space-time. The causaloid framework lays the mathematical groundwork to be able to treat indefinite causal structure. In this paper, we build on the causaloid mathematics and define a causally-unbiased entropy for an indefinite causal structure. In defining a causally-unbiased entropy, there comes about an emergent idea of causality in the form of a measure of causal connectedness, termed the Q factor.

  11. Bayesian nonparametric generative models for causal inference with missing at random covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Jason; Lum, Kirsten J; Zeldow, Bret; Dworkin, Jordan D; Re, Vincent Lo; Daniels, Michael J

    2018-03-26

    We propose a general Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference in the point treatment setting. The joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, treatment, and confounders) is modeled using an enriched Dirichlet process. The combination of the observed data model and causal assumptions allows us to identify any type of causal effect-differences, ratios, or quantile effects, either marginally or for subpopulations of interest. The proposed BNP model is well-suited for causal inference problems, as it does not require parametric assumptions about the distribution of confounders and naturally leads to a computationally efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm. By flexibly modeling the joint distribution, we are also able to impute (via data augmentation) values for missing covariates within the algorithm under an assumption of ignorable missingness, obviating the need to create separate imputed data sets. This approach for imputing the missing covariates has the additional advantage of guaranteeing congeniality between the imputation model and the analysis model, and because we use a BNP approach, parametric models are avoided for imputation. The performance of the method is assessed using simulation studies. The method is applied to data from a cohort study of human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis C virus co-infected patients. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Causal Measurement Models: Can Criticism Stimulate Clarification?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2016-01-01

    In their 2016 work, Aguirre-Urreta et al. provided a contribution to the literature on causal measurement models that enhances clarity and stimulates further thinking. Aguirre-Urreta et al. presented a form of statistical identity involving mapping onto the portion of the parameter space involving the nomological net, relationships between the…

  13. Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory

    OpenAIRE

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the “theory theory” grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and non-technical way, and review an extensive but ...

  14. Regression to Causality : Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

    2014-01-01

    of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... more likely. Our experiment drew on a sample of 235 university students from three different social science degree programs (political science, sociology and economics), all of whom had received substantial training in statistics. The subjects were asked to compare and evaluate the validity...

  15. Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  16. Space-time as a causal set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombelli, L.; Lee, J.; Meyer, D.; Sorkin, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    We propose that space-time at the smallest scales is in reality a causal set: a locally finite set of elements endowed with a partial order corresponding to the macroscopic relation that defines past and future. We explore how a Lorentzian manifold can approximate a causal set, noting in particular that the thereby defined effective dimensionality of a given causal set can vary with length scale. Finally, we speculate briefly on the quantum dynamics of causal sets, indicating why an appropriate choice of action can reproduce general relativity in the classical limit

  17. Network-Oriented Modeling of Multi-Criteria Homophily and Opinion Dynamics in Social Media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kozyreva, Olga; Pechina, Anna; Treur, J.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we model the opinion dynamics in social groups in combination with adaptation of the connections based on a multicriteria homophily principle. The adaptive network model has been designed according to a Network-Oriented Modeling approach based on temporal-causal networks. The model has

  18. A theory of causal learning in children: Causal maps and Bayes nets

    OpenAIRE

    Gopnik, A; Glymour, C; Sobel, D M; Schulz, L E; Kushnir, T; Danks, D

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computatio...

  19. Toward a Comprehensive Model of Antisocial Development: A Dynamic Systems Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granic, Isabela; Patterson, Gerald R.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to develop a preliminary comprehensive model of antisocial development based on dynamic systems principles. The model is built on the foundations of behavioral research on coercion theory. First, the authors focus on the principles of multistability, feedback, and nonlinear causality to reconceptualize real-time…

  20. Bulk viscous cosmology with causal transport theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piattella, Oliver F.; Fabris, Júlio C.; Zimdahl, Winfried

    2011-01-01

    We consider cosmological scenarios originating from a single imperfect fluid with bulk viscosity and apply Eckart's and both the full and the truncated Müller-Israel-Stewart's theories as descriptions of the non-equilibrium processes. Our principal objective is to investigate if the dynamical properties of Dark Matter and Dark Energy can be described by a single viscous fluid and how such description changes when a causal theory (Müller-Israel-Stewart's, both in its full and truncated forms) is taken into account instead of Eckart's non-causal one. To this purpose, we find numerical solutions for the gravitational potential and compare its behaviour with the corresponding ΛCDM case. Eckart's and the full causal theory seem to be disfavoured, whereas the truncated theory leads to results similar to those of the ΛCDM model for a bulk viscous speed in the interval 10 −11 || cb 2 ∼ −8

  1. Causality discovery technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

    2012-11-01

    Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

  2. Dynamics of charged viscous dissipative cylindrical collapse with full causal approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, S.M.; Abbas, G. [The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Department of Mathematics, Bahawalpur (Pakistan)

    2017-11-15

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamical aspects of a charged viscous cylindrical source by using the Misner approach. To this end, we have considered the more general charged dissipative fluid enclosed by the cylindrical symmetric spacetime. The dissipative nature of the source is due to the presence of dissipative variables in the stress-energy tensor. The dynamical equations resulting from such charged cylindrical dissipative source have been coupled with the causal transport equations for heat flux, shear and bulk viscosity, in the context of the Israel-Steward theory. In this case, we have the considered Israel-Steward transportation equations without excluding the thermodynamics viscous/heat coupling coefficients. The results are compared with the previous works in which such coefficients were excluded and viscosity variables do not satisfy the casual transportation equations. (orig.)

  3. A theory of causal learning in children: causal maps and Bayes nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M; Schulz, Laura E; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computations similar to those for learning causal Bayes nets and for predicting with them. Experimental results suggest that 2- to 4-year-old children construct new causal maps and that their learning is consistent with the Bayes net formalism.

  4. The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balcilar, Mehmet; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the causal link between monthly oil futures price changes and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index changes. The causal linkage between oil and stock markets is modelled using a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters so as to reflect changes in Granger causality over time. A Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, in which causal link between the series is stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain, is used for inferring time-varying causality. Although we do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality, the results based on the MS-VAR model clearly show that oil futures price has strong regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index during various sub-periods in the sample, while there is a weak evidence for the regime prediction power of a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock indexes. The regime-prediction non-causality tests on the MS-VAR model show that both variables are useful for making inference about the regime process and that the evidence on regime-prediction causality is primarily found in the equation describing a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock market returns. The evidence from the conditional non-causality tests shows that past information on the other series fails to improve the one step ahead prediction for both oil futures and stock returns. - Highlights: • We analyse the causal links between oil futures price and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 index. • The causal links are modelled using a regime switching model. • We do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality between the series. • The results show that oil futures price has regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index

  5. Causal dissipation for the relativistic dynamics of ideal gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freistühler, Heinrich; Temple, Blake

    2017-05-01

    We derive a general class of relativistic dissipation tensors by requiring that, combined with the relativistic Euler equations, they form a second-order system of partial differential equations which is symmetric hyperbolic in a second-order sense when written in the natural Godunov variables that make the Euler equations symmetric hyperbolic in the first-order sense. We show that this class contains a unique element representing a causal formulation of relativistic dissipative fluid dynamics which (i) is equivalent to the classical descriptions by Eckart and Landau to first order in the coefficients of viscosity and heat conduction and (ii) has its signal speeds bounded sharply by the speed of light. Based on these properties, we propose this system as a natural candidate for the relativistic counterpart of the classical Navier-Stokes equations.

  6. Dynamical Symmetries and Causality in Non-Equilibrium Phase Transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malte Henkel

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical symmetries are of considerable importance in elucidating the complex behaviour of strongly interacting systems with many degrees of freedom. Paradigmatic examples are cooperative phenomena as they arise in phase transitions, where conformal invariance has led to enormous progress in equilibrium phase transitions, especially in two dimensions. Non-equilibrium phase transitions can arise in much larger portions of the parameter space than equilibrium phase transitions. The state of the art of recent attempts to generalise conformal invariance to a new generic symmetry, taking into account the different scaling behaviour of space and time, will be reviewed. Particular attention will be given to the causality properties as they follow for co-variant n-point functions. These are important for the physical identification of n-point functions as responses or correlators.

  7. An Empirical Analysis of the ASEAN-4’s Causality between Exports and Output Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, Tri Dung

    2016-01-01

    This paper specifically focuses on analysing the causality between real GDP and real export of goods and services of the ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines) by using comprehensive econometric techniques such as the unit root test, cointegration test, and error correction model. This study reveals that for short-run dynamics, while bi-directional Granger-causality exists in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand; the unidirectional Granger-causality runs from...

  8. Health and Wealth of Elderly Couples : Causality Tests Using Dynamic Panel Data Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michaud, P.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2004-01-01

    A positive relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and health, the so-called \\health-wealth gradient", is repeatedly found in most industrialized countries with similar levels of health care technology and economic welfare. This study analyzes causality from health to wealth (health

  9. On causality of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Zanin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

  10. Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Steven M; Heiser, Laura M; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K; Carlin, Daniel E; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O; Wong, Chris K; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W; Long, Byron L; Noren, David P; Bisberg, Alexander J; Mills, Gordon B; Gray, Joe W; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A; Fertig, Elana J; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M; Spellman, Paul T; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

    2016-04-01

    It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense.

  11. Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Pessoa Jr.

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available : The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning of the science of magnetism, “explaining” — in a probabilistic way, in terms of a single causal model — why the field advanced in China but not in Europe (the difference is due to different prior probabilities of certain cultural manifestations. Given the number of years between the occurrences of two causally connected advances X and Y, one proposes a criterion for stipulating the value pY=X of the conditional probability of an advance Y occurring, given X. Next, one must assume a specific form for the cumulative probability function pY=X(t, which we take to be the time integral of an exponential distribution function, as is done in physics of radioactive decay. Rules for calculating the cumulative functions for more than two events are mentioned, involving composition, disjunction and conjunction of causes. We also consider the problems involved in supposing that the appearance of events in time follows an exponential distribution, which are a consequence of the fact that a composition of causes does not follow an exponential distribution, but a “hypoexponential” one. We suggest that a gamma distribution function might more adequately represent the appearance of advances.

  12. Rate-Agnostic (Causal) Structure Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plis, Sergey; Danks, David; Freeman, Cynthia; Calhoun, Vince

    2015-12-01

    Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Extant algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume approximately equal system and measurement timescales. In many domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes, but the size of the timescale mismatch is often unknown. This paper develops three causal structure learning algorithms, each of which discovers all dynamic causal graphs that explain the observed measurement data, perhaps given undersampling. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure in a "rate-agnostic" manner: they do not assume any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations to gain insight into the challenge of undersampling.

  13. Comparing the Cognitive Process of Circular Causality in Two Patients with Strokes through Qualitative Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derakhshanrad, Seyed Alireza; Piven, Emily; Ghoochani, Bahareh Zeynalzadeh

    2017-10-01

    Walter J. Freeman pioneered the neurodynamic model of brain activity when he described the brain dynamics for cognitive information transfer as the process of circular causality at intention, meaning, and perception (IMP) levels. This view contributed substantially to establishment of the Intention, Meaning, and Perception Model of Neuro-occupation in occupational therapy. As described by the model, IMP levels are three components of the brain dynamics system, with nonlinear connections that enable cognitive function to be processed in a circular causality fashion, known as Cognitive Process of Circular Causality (CPCC). Although considerable research has been devoted to study the brain dynamics by sophisticated computerized imaging techniques, less attention has been paid to study it through investigating the adaptation process of thoughts and behaviors. To explore how CPCC manifested thinking and behavioral patterns, a qualitative case study was conducted on two matched female participants with strokes, who were of comparable ages, affected sides, and other characteristics, except for their resilience and motivational behaviors. CPCC was compared by matrix analysis between two participants, using content analysis with pre-determined categories. Different patterns of thinking and behavior may have happened, due to disparate regulation of CPCC between two participants.

  14. Reconstructing constructivism: causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms, and the theory theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M

    2012-11-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and nontechnical way, and review an extensive but relatively recent body of empirical results that supports these ideas. These include new studies of the mechanisms of learning. Children infer causal structure from statistical information, through their own actions on the world and through observations of the actions of others. Studies demonstrate these learning mechanisms in children from 16 months to 4 years old and include research on causal statistical learning, informal experimentation through play, and imitation and informal pedagogy. They also include studies of the variability and progressive character of intuitive theory change, particularly theory of mind. These studies investigate both the physical and the psychological and social domains. We conclude with suggestions for further collaborative projects between developmental and computational cognitive scientists.

  15. Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

    2018-05-01

    The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

  16. Inhibitory behavioral control: A stochastic dynamic causal modeling study comparing cocaine dependent subjects and controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangsuo Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cocaine dependence is associated with increased impulsivity in humans. Both cocaine dependence and impulsive behavior are under the regulatory control of cortico-striatal networks. One behavioral laboratory measure of impulsivity is response inhibition (ability to withhold a prepotent response in which altered patterns of regional brain activation during executive tasks in service of normal performance are frequently found in cocaine dependent (CD subjects studied with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. However, little is known about aberrations in specific directional neuronal connectivity in CD subjects. The present study employed fMRI-based dynamic causal modeling (DCM to study the effective (directional neuronal connectivity associated with response inhibition in CD subjects, elicited under performance of a Go/NoGo task with two levels of NoGo difficulty (Easy and Hard. The performance on the Go/NoGo task was not significantly different between CD subjects and controls. The DCM analysis revealed that prefrontal–striatal connectivity was modulated (influenced during the NoGo conditions for both groups. The effective connectivity from left (L anterior cingulate cortex (ACC to L caudate was similarly modulated during the Easy NoGo condition for both groups. During the Hard NoGo condition in controls, the effective connectivity from right (R dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC to L caudate became more positive, and the effective connectivity from R ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC to L caudate became more negative. In CD subjects, the effective connectivity from L ACC to L caudate became more negative during the Hard NoGo conditions. These results indicate that during Hard NoGo trials in CD subjects, the ACC rather than DLPFC or VLPFC influenced caudate during response inhibition.

  17. THE METHODOLOGY OF TESTING THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN THE ROMANIAN MUTUAL FUNDS MARKET AND THE ECONOMY’S DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana RADU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper tests and evaluates the causality between the dynamics of the Romanian mutual fund market and the economy. Using the Granger causality test, a regression analysis has been developed on quarterly data during 2004Q3 – 2012Q2 for the Romanian economy. Based on this relationship, we can emphasize that the controversial debate upon the economic growth and the mutual fund market has became a complex research subject. Therefore, due to its complexity, the timeliness and the continuous growth of the investment funds area, this paper complements the existing literature by identifying the causal linkage between the mutual fund market and the economy. The paper is organized as it follows. First part presents the main premises that have emphasized our research. Second part presents a brief literature review and extracts the studies that appreciate best the relationship between the analyzed variables. Next section is set on defining the potential correlation between the analyzed variables. Then, section 4 tests the causality by using the R facility. The last part concludes.

  18. Causal Indicator Models: Unresolved Issues of Construction and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Grimm, Kevin J.

    2014-01-01

    These authors agree with Bainter and Bollen that causal effects represents a useful measurement structure in some applications. The structure of the science of the measurement problem should determine the model; the measurement model should not determine the science. They also applaud Bainter and Bollen's important reminder that the full…

  19. CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, M Cyrus; Hernandez, Ryan D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data. Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations). Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens' Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement CCM in Julia, a

  20. CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cyrus Maher

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data.Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM, a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations. Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens’ Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement

  1. Temporal expression profiling identifies pathways mediating effect of causal variant on phenotype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saumya Gupta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Even with identification of multiple causal genetic variants for common human diseases, understanding the molecular processes mediating the causal variants' effect on the disease remains a challenge. This understanding is crucial for the development of therapeutic strategies to prevent and treat disease. While static profiling of gene expression is primarily used to get insights into the biological bases of diseases, it makes differentiating the causative from the correlative effects difficult, as the dynamics of the underlying biological processes are not monitored. Using yeast as a model, we studied genome-wide gene expression dynamics in the presence of a causal variant as the sole genetic determinant, and performed allele-specific functional validation to delineate the causal effects of the genetic variant on the phenotype. Here, we characterized the precise genetic effects of a functional MKT1 allelic variant in sporulation efficiency variation. A mathematical model describing meiotic landmark events and conditional activation of MKT1 expression during sporulation specified an early meiotic role of this variant. By analyzing the early meiotic genome-wide transcriptional response, we demonstrate an MKT1-dependent role of novel modulators, namely, RTG1/3, regulators of mitochondrial retrograde signaling, and DAL82, regulator of nitrogen starvation, in additively effecting sporulation efficiency. In the presence of functional MKT1 allele, better respiration during early sporulation was observed, which was dependent on the mitochondrial retrograde regulator, RTG3. Furthermore, our approach showed that MKT1 contributes to sporulation independent of Puf3, an RNA-binding protein that steady-state transcription profiling studies have suggested to mediate MKT1-pleiotropic effects during mitotic growth. These results uncover interesting regulatory links between meiosis and mitochondrial retrograde signaling. In this study, we highlight the advantage

  2. Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225

  3. Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

  4. Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huirong Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

  5. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  6. Altered retrieval of melodic information in congenital amusia: insights from dynamic causal modeling of MEG data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albouy, Philippe; Mattout, Jérémie; Sanchez, Gaëtan; Tillmann, Barbara; Caclin, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder that primarily manifests as a difficulty in the perception and memory of pitch-based materials, including music. Recent findings have shown that the amusic brain exhibits altered functioning of a fronto-temporal network during pitch perception and short-term memory. Within this network, during the encoding of melodies, a decreased right backward frontal-to-temporal connectivity was reported in amusia, along with an abnormal connectivity within and between auditory cortices. The present study investigated whether connectivity patterns between these regions were affected during the short-term memory retrieval of melodies. Amusics and controls had to indicate whether sequences of six tones that were presented in pairs were the same or different. When melodies were different only one tone changed in the second melody. Brain responses to the changed tone in "Different" trials and to its equivalent (original) tone in "Same" trials were compared between groups using Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM). DCM results confirmed that congenital amusia is characterized by an altered effective connectivity within and between the two auditory cortices during sound processing. Furthermore, right temporal-to-frontal message passing was altered in comparison to controls, with notably an increase in "Same" trials. An additional analysis in control participants emphasized that the detection of an unexpected event in the typically functioning brain is supported by right fronto-temporal connections. The results can be interpreted in a predictive coding framework as reflecting an abnormal prediction error sent by temporal auditory regions towards frontal areas in the amusic brain.

  7. Altered retrieval of melodic information in congenital amusia: Insights from Dynamic Causal Modeling of MEG data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe eAlbouy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder that primarily manifests as a difficulty in the perception and memory of pitch-based materials, including music. Recent findings have shown that the amusic brain exhibits altered functioning of a fronto-temporal network during pitch perception and memory. Within this network, during the encoding of melodies, a decreased right backward frontal-to-temporal connectivity was reported in amusia, along with an abnormal connectivity within and between auditory cortices. The present study investigated whether connectivity patterns between these regions were affected during the retrieval of melodies. Amusics and controls had to indicate whether sequences of six tones that were presented in pairs were the same or different. When melodies were different only one tone changed in the second melody. Brain responses to the changed tone in Different trials and to its equivalent (original tone in Same trials were compared between groups using Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM. DCM results confirmed that congenital amusia is characterized by an altered effective connectivity within and between the two auditory cortices during sound processing. Furthermore, right temporal-to-frontal message passing was altered in comparison to controls, with an increase in Same trials and a decrease in Different trials. An additional analysis in control participants emphasized that the detection of an unexpected event in the typically functioning brain is supported by right fronto-temporal connections. The results can be interpreted in a predictive coding framework as reflecting an abnormal prediction error sent by temporal auditory regions towards frontal areas in the amusic brain.

  8. The general dynamic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael K.; Matthews, Thomas J.; Whittaker, Robert James

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Island biogeography focuses on understanding the processes that underlie a set of well-described patterns on islands, but it lacks a unified theoretical framework for integrating these processes. The recently proposed general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography offers a step...... towards this goal. Here, we present an analysis of causality within the GDM and investigate its potential for the further development of island biogeographical theory. Further, we extend the GDM to include subduction-based island arcs and continental fragment islands. Location: A conceptual analysis...... of evolutionary processes in simulations derived from the mechanistic assumptions of the GDM corresponded broadly to those initially suggested, with the exception of trends in extinction rates. Expanding the model to incorporate different scenarios of island ontogeny and isolation revealed a sensitivity...

  9. Challenges to inferring causality from viral information dispersion in dynamic social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ternovski, John

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the mechanism behind large-scale information dispersion through complex networks has important implications for a variety of industries ranging from cyber-security to public health. With the unprecedented availability of public data from online social networks (OSNs) and the low cost nature of most OSN outreach, randomized controlled experiments, the "gold standard" of causal inference methodologies, have been used with increasing regularity to study viral information dispersion. And while these studies have dramatically furthered our understanding of how information disseminates through social networks by isolating causal mechanisms, there are still major methodological concerns that need to be addressed in future research. This paper delineates why modern OSNs are markedly different from traditional sociological social networks and why these differences present unique challenges to experimentalists and data scientists. The dynamic nature of OSNs is particularly troublesome for researchers implementing experimental designs, so this paper identifies major sources of bias arising from network mutability and suggests strategies to circumvent and adjust for these biases. This paper also discusses the practical considerations of data quality and collection, which may adversely impact the efficiency of the estimator. The major experimental methodologies used in the current literature on virality are assessed at length, and their strengths and limits identified. Other, as-yetunsolved threats to the efficiency and unbiasedness of causal estimators--such as missing data--are also discussed. This paper integrates methodologies and learnings from a variety of fields under an experimental and data science framework in order to systematically consolidate and identify current methodological limitations of randomized controlled experiments conducted in OSNs.

  10. Situation models and memory: the effects of temporal and causal information on recall sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownstein, Aaron L; Read, Stephen J

    2007-10-01

    Participants watched an episode of the television show Cheers on video and then reported free recall. Recall sequence followed the sequence of events in the story; if one concept was observed immediately after another, it was recalled immediately after it. We also made a causal network of the show's story and found that recall sequence followed causal links; effects were recalled immediately after their causes. Recall sequence was more likely to follow causal links than temporal sequence, and most likely to follow causal links that were temporally sequential. Results were similar at 10-minute and 1-week delayed recall. This is the most direct and detailed evidence reported on sequential effects in recall. The causal network also predicted probability of recall; concepts with more links and concepts on the main causal chain were most likely to be recalled. This extends the causal network model to more complex materials than previous research.

  11. Dynamic Materials do the Trick in Participatory Business Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caglio, Agnese; Buur, Jacob

    In this position paper we suggest that design material with dynamic behaviour is particularly suited to scaffold groups of diverse participants in discussing the ‘if – then’ causalities of business models. Based on video data from a number of innovation project workshops we present a comparison...... matrix of five different material types for participatory business modeling. The comparison matrix highlights patterns in the use of materials, and how they allow people to participate, negotiate and make meaning....

  12. Non-Causal Computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ämin Baumeler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Computation models such as circuits describe sequences of computation steps that are carried out one after the other. In other words, algorithm design is traditionally subject to the restriction imposed by a fixed causal order. We address a novel computing paradigm beyond quantum computing, replacing this assumption by mere logical consistency: We study non-causal circuits, where a fixed time structure within a gate is locally assumed whilst the global causal structure between the gates is dropped. We present examples of logically consistent non-causal circuits outperforming all causal ones; they imply that suppressing loops entirely is more restrictive than just avoiding the contradictions they can give rise to. That fact is already known for correlations as well as for communication, and we here extend it to computation.

  13. Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2005-01-01

    We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

  14. Synchronization and Causality Across Time-scales: Complex Dynamics and Extremes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajcay, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Tsonis, A.; Palus, M.

    2017-12-01

    A better understanding of dynamics in complex systems, such as the Earth's climate is one of the key challenges for contemporary science and society. A large amount of experimental data requires new mathematical and computational approaches. Natural complex systems vary on many temporal and spatial scales, often exhibiting recurring patterns and quasi-oscillatory phenomena. The statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding of underlying mechanisms and a key for modeling and prediction of such systems. This study introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different wavelet components of the observed data that characterizes El Niño. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales was detected, and intermittent synchronization among different time scales has been associated with the extreme El Niño events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions were further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction. Moreover, the statistical framework which we apply here is suitable for direct usage of inferring cross-scale interactions in nonlinear time series from complex systems such as the terrestrial magnetosphere, solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic activity or even human brain dynamics.

  15. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  16. Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Implications of causality for quantum biology - I: topology change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scofield, D. F.; Collins, T. C.

    2018-06-01

    A framework for describing the causal, topology changing, evolution of interacting biomolecules is developed. The quantum dynamical manifold equations (QDMEs) derived from this framework can be related to the causality restrictions implied by a finite speed of light and to Planck's constant to set a transition frequency scale. The QDMEs imply conserved stress-energy, angular-momentum and Noether currents. The functional whose extremisation leads to this result provides a causal, time-dependent, non-equilibrium generalisation of the Hohenberg-Kohn theorem. The system of dynamical equations derived from this functional and the currents J derived from the QDMEs are shown to be causal and consistent with the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This has the potential of allowing living systems to be quantum mechanically distinguished from non-living ones.

  18. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  19. Perceived Difficulty of Moral Dilemmas Depends on Their Causal Structure: A Formal Model and Preliminary Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhnert, Barbara; Lindner, Felix; Bentzen, Martin Mose

    We introduce causal agency models as a modeling technique for representing and reasoning about ethical dilemmas. We find that ethical dilemmas, although they look similar on the surface, have very different causal structures. Based on their structural properties, as identified by the causal agency...... models, we cluster a set of dilemmas in Type 1 and Type 2 dilemmas. We observe that for Type 2 dilemmas but not for Type 1 dilemmas a utilitarian action dominates the possibility of refraining from action. Hence, we hypothesize, based on the model, that Type 2 dilemmas are perceived as less difficult...

  20. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. An example of numerical simulation in causal set dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krugly, Alexey L; Tserkovnikov, Ivan A

    2013-01-01

    The model of a discrete pregeometry on a microscopic scale is an x-graph. This is a directed acyclic graph. An outdegree and an indegree of each vertex are not more than 2. The sets of vertices and edges of x-graph are particular cases of causal sets. The sequential growth of a graph is an addition of new vertices one by one. A simple stochastic algorithm of sequential growth of x-graph are considered. It is based on a random walk at the x-graph. The particles in this model must be self-organized repetitive structures. We introduce the method of search of such repetitive structures. It is based on a discrete Fourier transformation. An example of numerical simulation is introduced.

  2. Cointegration and causality analysis of dynamic linkage between stock market and equity mutual funds in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasipa Pojanavatee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The existing literature finds conflicting results on the magnitude of price linkages between equity mutual funds and the stock market. The study contends that in an optimal lagged model, the expectations of future prices using knowledge of past price behaviour in a particular equity mutual fund category will improve forecasts of prices of other equity mutual fund categories and the stock market index. The evidence shows that the long-run pricing of equity mutual funds is cointegrated with the stock market index. In the short run, the results indicate that some equity mutual fund categories possess both long-run and short-run exogeneity with the stock market. Therefore, the short-run dynamic indicates short-run Granger causal links running between different equity mutual fund categories.

  3. Explaining quantum correlations through evolution of causal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Robin; Chapman, Robert J.; Ferrie, Christopher; Granade, Christopher; Kueng, Richard; Naoumenko, Daniel; Flammia, Steven T.; Peruzzo, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    We propose a framework for the systematic and quantitative generalization of Bell's theorem using causal networks. We first consider the multiobjective optimization problem of matching observed data while minimizing the causal effect of nonlocal variables and prove an inequality for the optimal region that both strengthens and generalizes Bell's theorem. To solve the optimization problem (rather than simply bound it), we develop a genetic algorithm treating as individuals causal networks. By applying our algorithm to a photonic Bell experiment, we demonstrate the trade-off between the quantitative relaxation of one or more local causality assumptions and the ability of data to match quantum correlations.

  4. On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Palamalai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

  5. Causal Models for Mediation Analysis: An Introduction to Structural Mean Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Cheng; Atkins, David C; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Rhew, Isaac C

    2015-01-01

    Mediation analyses are critical to understanding why behavioral interventions work. To yield a causal interpretation, common mediation approaches must make an assumption of "sequential ignorability." The current article describes an alternative approach to causal mediation called structural mean models (SMMs). A specific SMM called a rank-preserving model (RPM) is introduced in the context of an applied example. Particular attention is given to the assumptions of both approaches to mediation. Applying both mediation approaches to the college student drinking data yield notable differences in the magnitude of effects. Simulated examples reveal instances in which the traditional approach can yield strongly biased results, whereas the RPM approach remains unbiased in these cases. At the same time, the RPM approach has its own assumptions that must be met for correct inference, such as the existence of a covariate that strongly moderates the effect of the intervention on the mediator and no unmeasured confounders that also serve as a moderator of the effect of the intervention or the mediator on the outcome. The RPM approach to mediation offers an alternative way to perform mediation analysis when there may be unmeasured confounders.

  6. System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jere Jakulin Tadeja

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.

  7. A 2D model of causal set quantum gravity: the emergence of the continuum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brightwell, Graham; Henson, Joe; Surya, Sumati

    2008-01-01

    Non-perturbative theories of quantum gravity inevitably include configurations that fail to resemble physically reasonable spacetimes at large scales. Often, these configurations are entropically dominant and pose an obstacle to obtaining the desired classical limit. We examine this 'entropy problem' in a model of causal set quantum gravity corresponding to a discretization of 2D spacetimes. Using results from the theory of partial orders we show that, in the large volume or continuum limit, its partition function is dominated by causal sets which approximate to a region of 2D Minkowski space. This model of causal set quantum gravity thus overcomes the entropy problem and predicts the emergence of a physically reasonable geometry

  8. A frequency domain subspace algorithm for mixed causal, anti-causal LTI systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fraanje, Rufus; Verhaegen, Michel; Verdult, Vincent; Pintelon, Rik

    2003-01-01

    The paper extends the subspacc identification method to estimate state-space models from frequency response function (FRF) samples, proposed by McKelvey et al. (1996) for mixed causal/anti-causal systems, and shows that other frequency domain subspace algorithms can be extended similarly. The method

  9. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  10. The System Dynamics Model for Development of Organic Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozman, Črtomir; Škraba, Andrej; Kljajić, Miroljub; Pažek, Karmen; Bavec, Martina; Bavec, Franci

    2008-10-01

    Organic agriculture is the highest environmentally valuable agricultural system, and has strategic importance at national level that goes beyond the interests of agricultural sector. In this paper we address development of organic farming simulation model based on a system dynamics methodology (SD). The system incorporates relevant variables, which affect the development of the organic farming. The group decision support system (GDSS) was used in order to identify most relevant variables for construction of causal loop diagram and further model development. The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in a long term dynamic context and will be used for simulation of different policy scenarios for organic farming and their impact on economic and environmental parameters of organic production at an aggregate level.

  11. Testing a Model of Diabetes Self-Care Management: A Causal Model Analysis with LISREL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowacek, George A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A diabetes-management model is presented, which includes an attitudinal element and depicts relationships among causal elements. LISREL-VI was used to analyze data from 115 Type-I and 105 Type-II patients. The data did not closely fit the model. Results support the importance of the personal meaning of diabetes. (TJH)

  12. Renormalization group approach to causal bulk viscous cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belinchon, J A; Harko, T; Mak, M K

    2002-01-01

    The renormalization group method is applied to the study of homogeneous and flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker type universes, filled with a causal bulk viscous cosmological fluid. The starting point of the study is the consideration of the scaling properties of the gravitational field equations, the causal evolution equation of the bulk viscous pressure and the equations of state. The requirement of scale invariance imposes strong constraints on the temporal evolution of the bulk viscosity coefficient, temperature and relaxation time, thus leading to the possibility of obtaining the bulk viscosity coefficient-energy density dependence. For a cosmological model with bulk viscosity coefficient proportional to the Hubble parameter, we perform the analysis of the renormalization group flow around the scale-invariant fixed point, thereby obtaining the long-time behaviour of the scale factor

  13. The role of causal maps in intellectual capital measurement and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montemari, Marco; Nielsen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the measurement and the management of the dynamic aspects of intellectual capital through the use of causal mapping. Design/methodology/approach – The study details the methods utilized in a single in-depth case study of a network-based business...... of the lag and the persistence of the effects of managerial actions. In addition, it can signal when and how to refine and update the causal map. The combination of these factors supports the dynamic measurement and management of intellectual capital. Research limitations/implications – The paper presented...... the causal mapping approach into practice. Practical implications – The paper highlights the need to build causal maps to enhance the measurement and management of intellectual capital, which is dynamic of nature. As a consequence, this tool can be useful for companies to monitor their intangibles...

  14. Causality and headache triggers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

  15. Covariation in Natural Causal Induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Patricia W.; Novick, Laura R.

    1991-01-01

    Biases and models usually offered by cognitive and social psychology and by philosophy to explain causal induction are evaluated with respect to focal sets (contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed). A probabilistic contrast model is proposed as underlying covariation computation in natural causal induction. (SLD)

  16. Causal hierarchy within the thalamo-cortical network in spike and wave discharges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna E Vaudano

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Generalised spike wave (GSW discharges are the electroencephalographic (EEG hallmark of absence seizures, clinically characterised by a transitory interruption of ongoing activities and impaired consciousness, occurring during states of reduced awareness. Several theories have been proposed to explain the pathophysiology of GSW discharges and the role of thalamus and cortex as generators. In this work we extend the existing theories by hypothesizing a role for the precuneus, a brain region neglected in previous works on GSW generation but already known to be linked to consciousness and awareness. We analysed fMRI data using dynamic causal modelling (DCM to investigate the effective connectivity between precuneus, thalamus and prefrontal cortex in patients with GSW discharges.We analysed fMRI data from seven patients affected by Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE with frequent GSW discharges and significant GSW-correlated haemodynamic signal changes in the thalamus, the prefrontal cortex and the precuneus. Using DCM we assessed their effective connectivity, i.e. which region drives another region. Three dynamic causal models were constructed: GSW was modelled as autonomous input to the thalamus (model A, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (model B, and precuneus (model C. Bayesian model comparison revealed Model C (GSW as autonomous input to precuneus, to be the best in 5 patients while model A prevailed in two cases. At the group level model C dominated and at the population-level the p value of model C was approximately 1.Our results provide strong evidence that activity in the precuneus gates GSW discharges in the thalamo-(fronto cortical network. This study is the first demonstration of a causal link between haemodynamic changes in the precuneus -- an index of awareness -- and the occurrence of pathological discharges in epilepsy.

  17. Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

    2012-09-01

    Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Causal Modelling in Evaluation Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winteler, Adolf

    1983-01-01

    A study applied path analysis methods, using new techniques of causal analysis, to the problem of predicting the achievement, dropout rate, and satisfaction of university students. Besides providing explanations, the technique indicates possible remedial measures. (MSE)

  19. A Causal Model of Consumer-Based Brand Equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szőcs Attila

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Branding literature suggests that consumer-based brand equity (CBBE is a multidimensional construct. Starting from this approach and developing a conceptual multidimensional model, this study finds that CBBE can be best modelled with a two-dimensional structure and claims that it achieves this result by choosing the theoretically based causal specification. On the contrary, with reflective specification, one will be able to fit almost any valid construct because of the halo effect and common method bias. In the final model, Trust (in quality and Advantage are causing the second-order Brand Equity. The two-dimensional brand equity is an intuitive model easy to interpret and easy to measure, which thus may be a much more attractive means for the management as well.

  20. Characterizing time series: when Granger causality triggers complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Tian; Cui, Yindong; Lin, Wei; Kurths, Jürgen; Liu, Chong

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to characterize time series with noise perturbations in both the time and frequency domains by combining Granger causality and complex networks. We construct directed and weighted complex networks from time series and use representative network measures to describe their physical and topological properties. Through analyzing the typical dynamical behaviors of some physical models and the MIT-BIHMassachusetts Institute of Technology-Beth Israel Hospital. human electrocardiogram data sets, we show that the proposed approach is able to capture and characterize various dynamics and has much potential for analyzing real-world time series of rather short length.

  1. Characterizing time series: when Granger causality triggers complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge Tian; Cui Yindong; Lin Wei; Liu Chong; Kurths, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to characterize time series with noise perturbations in both the time and frequency domains by combining Granger causality and complex networks. We construct directed and weighted complex networks from time series and use representative network measures to describe their physical and topological properties. Through analyzing the typical dynamical behaviors of some physical models and the MIT-BIH human electrocardiogram data sets, we show that the proposed approach is able to capture and characterize various dynamics and has much potential for analyzing real-world time series of rather short length. (paper)

  2. The continuum limit of causal fermion systems from Planck scale structures to macroscopic physics

    CERN Document Server

    Finster, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries". The dynamics is described by a novel variational principle, called the causal action principle. In addition to the basics, the book provides all the necessary mathematical background and explains how the causal action principle gives rise to the interactions of the standard model plus gravity on the level of second-quantized fermionic fields coupled to classical bosonic fields. The focus is on getting a mathematically sound connection between causal fermion systems and physical systems in Minkowski space. The book is intended for graduate students e...

  3. The causal structure of dynamical charged black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sungwook E; Hwang, Dong-il; Stewart, Ewan D; Yeom, Dong-han

    2010-01-01

    We study the causal structure of dynamical charged black holes, with a sufficient number of massless fields, using numerical simulations. Neglecting Hawking radiation, the inner horizon is a null Cauchy horizon and a curvature singularity due to mass inflation. When we include Hawking radiation, the inner horizon becomes space-like and is separated from the Cauchy horizon, which is parallel to the out-going null direction. Since a charged black hole must eventually transit to a neutral black hole, we studied the neutralization of the black hole and observed that the inner horizon evolves into a space-like singularity, generating a Cauchy horizon which is parallel to the in-going null direction. Since the mass function is finite around the inner horizon, the inner horizon is regular and penetrable in a general relativistic sense. However, since the curvature functions become trans-Planckian, we cannot say more about the region beyond the inner horizon, and it is natural to say that there is a 'physical' space-like singularity. However, if we assume an exponentially large number of massless scalar fields, our results can be extended beyond the inner horizon. In this case, strong cosmic censorship and black hole complementarity can be violated.

  4. The causal structure of dynamical charged black holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Sungwook E; Hwang, Dong-il; Stewart, Ewan D; Yeom, Dong-han, E-mail: eostm@muon.kaist.ac.k, E-mail: enotsae@gmail.co, E-mail: innocent@muon.kaist.ac.k [Department of Physics, KAIST, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-02-21

    We study the causal structure of dynamical charged black holes, with a sufficient number of massless fields, using numerical simulations. Neglecting Hawking radiation, the inner horizon is a null Cauchy horizon and a curvature singularity due to mass inflation. When we include Hawking radiation, the inner horizon becomes space-like and is separated from the Cauchy horizon, which is parallel to the out-going null direction. Since a charged black hole must eventually transit to a neutral black hole, we studied the neutralization of the black hole and observed that the inner horizon evolves into a space-like singularity, generating a Cauchy horizon which is parallel to the in-going null direction. Since the mass function is finite around the inner horizon, the inner horizon is regular and penetrable in a general relativistic sense. However, since the curvature functions become trans-Planckian, we cannot say more about the region beyond the inner horizon, and it is natural to say that there is a 'physical' space-like singularity. However, if we assume an exponentially large number of massless scalar fields, our results can be extended beyond the inner horizon. In this case, strong cosmic censorship and black hole complementarity can be violated.

  5. System Dynamics Modeling for Emergency Operating System Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, Ang Wei; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    The purpose of this paper is to present a causal model which explain human error cause-effect relationships of emergency operating system (EOS) by using system dynamics (SD) approach. The causal model will further quantified by analyzes nuclear power plant incidents/accidents data in Korea for simulation modeling. Emergency Operating System (EOS) is generally defined as a system which consists personnel, human-machine interface and procedures; and how these components interact and coordinate to respond to an incident or accident. Understanding the behavior of EOS especially personnel behavior and the factors influencing it during accident will contribute in human reliability evaluation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method which assesses how human decisions and actions affect to system risk and further used to reduce the human errors probability. There are many HRA method used performance influencing factors (PIFs) to identify the causes of human errors. However, these methods have several limitations. In HRA, PIFs are assumed independent each other and relationship between them are not been study. Through the SD simulation, users able to simulate various situation of nuclear power plant respond to emergency from human and organizational aspects. The simulation also provides users a comprehensive view on how to improve the safety in plants. This paper presents a causal model that explained cause-effect relationships of EOS human. Through SD simulation, users able to identify the main contribution of human error easily. Users can also use SD simulation to predict when and how a human error occurs over time. In future work, the SD model can be expanded more on low level factors. The relationship within low level factors can investigated by using correlation method and further included in the model. This can enables users to study more detailed human error cause-effect relationships and the behavior of EOS. Another improvement can be made is on EOS factors

  6. System Dynamics Modeling for Emergency Operating System Resilience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, Ang Wei; Kim, Jong Hyun

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a causal model which explain human error cause-effect relationships of emergency operating system (EOS) by using system dynamics (SD) approach. The causal model will further quantified by analyzes nuclear power plant incidents/accidents data in Korea for simulation modeling. Emergency Operating System (EOS) is generally defined as a system which consists personnel, human-machine interface and procedures; and how these components interact and coordinate to respond to an incident or accident. Understanding the behavior of EOS especially personnel behavior and the factors influencing it during accident will contribute in human reliability evaluation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method which assesses how human decisions and actions affect to system risk and further used to reduce the human errors probability. There are many HRA method used performance influencing factors (PIFs) to identify the causes of human errors. However, these methods have several limitations. In HRA, PIFs are assumed independent each other and relationship between them are not been study. Through the SD simulation, users able to simulate various situation of nuclear power plant respond to emergency from human and organizational aspects. The simulation also provides users a comprehensive view on how to improve the safety in plants. This paper presents a causal model that explained cause-effect relationships of EOS human. Through SD simulation, users able to identify the main contribution of human error easily. Users can also use SD simulation to predict when and how a human error occurs over time. In future work, the SD model can be expanded more on low level factors. The relationship within low level factors can investigated by using correlation method and further included in the model. This can enables users to study more detailed human error cause-effect relationships and the behavior of EOS. Another improvement can be made is on EOS factors

  7. Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Louizos, C; Shalit, U.; Mooij, J.; Sontag, D.; Zemel, R.; Welling, M.

    2017-01-01

    Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of

  8. Gravity and matter in causal set theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sverdlov, Roman; Bombelli, Luca

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to propose an approach to the formulation of dynamics for causal sets and coupled matter fields. We start from the continuum version of the action for a Klein-Gordon field coupled to gravity, and rewrite it first using quantities that have a direct correspondent in the case of a causal set, namely volumes, causal relations and timelike lengths, as variables to describe the geometry. In this step, the local Lagrangian density L(f;x) for a set of fields f is recast into a quasilocal expression L 0 (f;p,q) that depends on pairs of causally related points pprq and is a function of the values of f in the Alexandrov set defined by those points, and whose limit as p and q approach a common point x is L(f;x). We then describe how to discretize L 0 (f;p,q) and use it to define a causal-set-based action.

  9. System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel

  10. System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel

  11. Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

    2012-01-01

    A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

  12. A system dynamics evaluation model: implementation of health information exchange for public health reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Jacqueline A; Deegan, Michael; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Fredericks, Kimberly

    2013-06-01

    To evaluate the complex dynamics involved in implementing electronic health information exchange (HIE) for public health reporting at a state health department, and to identify policy implications to inform similar implementations. Qualitative data were collected over 8 months from seven experts at New York State Department of Health who implemented web services and protocols for querying, receipt, and validation of electronic data supplied by regional health information organizations. Extensive project documentation was also collected. During group meetings experts described the implementation process and created reference modes and causal diagrams that the evaluation team used to build a preliminary model. System dynamics modeling techniques were applied iteratively to build causal loop diagrams representing the implementation. The diagrams were validated iteratively by individual experts followed by group review online, and through confirmatory review of documents and artifacts. Three casual loop diagrams captured well-recognized system dynamics: Sliding Goals, Project Rework, and Maturity of Resources. The findings were associated with specific policies that address funding, leadership, ensuring expertise, planning for rework, communication, and timeline management. This evaluation illustrates the value of a qualitative approach to system dynamics modeling. As a tool for strategic thinking on complicated and intense processes, qualitative models can be produced with fewer resources than a full simulation, yet still provide insights that are timely and relevant. System dynamics techniques clarified endogenous and exogenous factors at play in a highly complex technology implementation, which may inform other states engaged in implementing HIE supported by federal Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) legislation.

  13. Extended causal modeling to assess Partial Directed Coherence in multiple time series with significant instantaneous interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2010-11-01

    The Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) and its generalized formulation (gPDC) are popular tools for investigating, in the frequency domain, the concept of Granger causality among multivariate (MV) time series. PDC and gPDC are formalized in terms of the coefficients of an MV autoregressive (MVAR) model which describes only the lagged effects among the time series and forsakes instantaneous effects. However, instantaneous effects are known to affect linear parametric modeling, and are likely to occur in experimental time series. In this study, we investigate the impact on the assessment of frequency domain causality of excluding instantaneous effects from the model underlying PDC evaluation. Moreover, we propose the utilization of an extended MVAR model including both instantaneous and lagged effects. This model is used to assess PDC either in accordance with the definition of Granger causality when considering only lagged effects (iPDC), or with an extended form of causality, when we consider both instantaneous and lagged effects (ePDC). The approach is first evaluated on three theoretical examples of MVAR processes, which show that the presence of instantaneous correlations may produce misleading profiles of PDC and gPDC, while ePDC and iPDC derived from the extended model provide here a correct interpretation of extended and lagged causality. It is then applied to representative examples of cardiorespiratory and EEG MV time series. They suggest that ePDC and iPDC are better interpretable than PDC and gPDC in terms of the known cardiovascular and neural physiologies.

  14. The Continuum Limit of Causal Fermion Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Finster, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries." The dynamics is described by...

  15. Carbon emissions, energy consumption and output: A threshold analysis on the causal dynamics in emerging African economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mensah, Justice Tei

    2014-01-01

    Following the recent global economic downturn, attention has gradually shifted towards emerging economies which have experienced robust growth amidst sluggish growth of the world economy. A significant number of these emerging economies are in Africa. Rising growth in these economies is associated with surging demand for energy to propel the engines of growth, with direct implications on emissions into the atmosphere. Further, these economies are constantly being shaped by series of structural reforms with direct and indirect effects on growth, demand for energy, etc. To this end, this paper examines the causal dynamics among energy use, real GDP and CO 2 emissions in the presence of regime shifts in six emerging African economies using the Gregory and Hansen (1996a). J. Econ. 70, 99–126 threshold cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995). J. Econometrics. 66, 225–250 Granger causality techniques. Results confirm the presence of regime shift effects in the long run inter-linkages among energy use, real GDP and CO 2 emissions in the countries considered, thus indicating that structural changes have both economic and environmental effects. Hence, integration of energy and environmental policies into development plans is imperative towards attaining sustainable growth and development. - Highlights: • The paper examines the causal dynamics among output, energy demand and carbon emissions in the presence of regime shifts. • Regime shift have significant effects on the nexus among energy use, real GDP and CO 2 emissions. • Results suggest that structural changes in selected countries have both economic and environmental effects. • Integration of energy and environmental policies into development plans is desirable

  16. Causal dissipation and shock profiles in the relativistic fluid dynamics of pure radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freistühler, Heinrich; Temple, Blake

    2014-06-08

    CURRENT THEORIES OF DISSIPATION IN THE RELATIVISTIC REGIME SUFFER FROM ONE OF TWO DEFICITS: either their dissipation is not causal or no profiles for strong shock waves exist. This paper proposes a relativistic Navier-Stokes-Fourier-type viscosity and heat conduction tensor such that the resulting second-order system of partial differential equations for the fluid dynamics of pure radiation is symmetric hyperbolic. This system has causal dissipation as well as the property that all shock waves of arbitrary strength have smooth profiles. Entropy production is positive both on gradients near those of solutions to the dissipation-free equations and on gradients of shock profiles. This shows that the new dissipation stress tensor complies to leading order with the principles of thermodynamics. Whether higher order modifications of the ansatz are required to obtain full compatibility with the second law far from the zero-dissipation equilibrium is left to further investigations. The system has exactly three a priori free parameters χ , η , ζ , corresponding physically to heat conductivity, shear viscosity and bulk viscosity. If the bulk viscosity is zero (as is stated in the literature) and the total stress-energy tensor is trace free, the entire viscosity and heat conduction tensor is determined to within a constant factor.

  17. Causal attributions of vineyard executives – A mental model study of vineyard management☆

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin FG Schaffernicht

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article contributes a reference of causal attributions made by vineyard executives in Chile, where increasing costs and stagnating prices challenge the vineyards’ profits. The investigation was motivated by the question how executives interpret the industry's mid term future and how they reflect on steering their companies. Based on in-depth interviews, causal maps were elaborated to represent the executives’ mental models. These are represented as sequences of attributions, connecting variables by causal links. It was found that some mental models guide policies bound to increase the prices, whereas other models suggest taking the prices as givens and control costs. The collection of causal attributions of the vineyard executives (CAVE has been made publicly available. As a result, CAVE can be used by other management scholars to elicit other executives’ mental models and increase the data base available. Since such research will be cumulative, a minimum size for meaningful statistical analysis can be reached, opening up an avenue for improving the design of business policies. CAVE can also serve executives and consultants in constructing causal argumentations and business policies. Future research and development of supporting software are called for. Keywords: Mental models, Strategy, Business model

  18. mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Tingley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

  19. Econometric testing on linear and nonlinear dynamic relation between stock prices and macroeconomy in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borjigin, Sumuya; Yang, Yating; Yang, Xiaoguang; Sun, Leilei

    2018-03-01

    Many researchers have realized that there is a strong correlation between stock prices and macroeconomy. In order to make this relationship clear, a lot of studies have been done. However, the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomy has still not been well explained. A key point is that, most of the existing research adopts linear and stable models to investigate the correlation of stock prices and macroeconomy, while the real causality of that may be nonlinear and dynamic. To fill this research gap, we investigate the nonlinear and dynamic causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomy. Based on the case of China's stock prices and acroeconomy measures from January 1992 to March 2017, we compare the linear Granger causality test models with nonlinear ones. Results demonstrate that the nonlinear dynamic Granger causality is much stronger than linear Granger causality. From the perspective of nonlinear dynamic Granger causality, China's stock prices can be viewed as "national economic barometer". On the one hand, this study will encourage researchers to take nonlinearity and dynamics into account when they investigate the correlation of stock prices and macroeconomy; on the other hand, our research can guide regulators and investors to make better decisions.

  20. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  1. Causality and Information Dynamics in Networked Systems with Many Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-11

    algorithms. 6 Future Perspectives Causal graph reconstruction from noisy data is a problem of central importance. In our research we have shown how the idea ...thrust of the research was to develop methods for GCG sparsification using ideas from Tikhonov regularization and ADMM based proximal algorithms...not vary with time. The notion of Granger-causality is captured in the following definition . Definition 2.1 If ξ̂[xi(t) |Ht] < ξ̂[xi(t) |H−jt ] , (2.2

  2. Inductive reasoning about causally transmitted properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2008-11-01

    Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates' context-sensitive use of taxonomic and food web knowledge to guide reasoning about causal transmission and shows good qualitative agreement between model predictions and human inferences. A second experiment demonstrates strong quantitative and qualitative fits to inferences about a more complex artificial food web. A third experiment investigates human reasoning about complex novel food webs where species have known taxonomic relations. Results demonstrate a double-dissociation between the predictions of our causal model and a related taxonomic model [Kemp, C., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2003). Learning domain structures. In Proceedings of the 25th annual conference of the cognitive science society]: the causal model predicts human inferences about diseases but not genes, while the taxonomic model predicts human inferences about genes but not diseases. We contrast our framework with previous models of category-based induction and previous formal instantiations of intuitive theories, and outline challenges in developing a complete model of context-sensitive reasoning.

  3. The key role of causal explanation in the climate change issue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Pongiglione

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The basis for adoption of pro-environment behaviour is the understanding of causal passages within climate dynamics. The understanding of the causes of climate change is necessary in order to be able to take mitigation actions  (the subject needs to be aware of his role as a causal agent. Conversely, the understanding of the consequences of climate change is essential in motivating action (the subject must be aware of the risks caused by it in order to prevent them. The case of ozone depletion confirms this view: the understanding of its causal dynamics played a determining role in people’s behavioural response.

  4. Development of a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal watermain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehan, R; Knight, M A; Unger, A J A; Haas, C T

    2013-12-15

    This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research

    OpenAIRE

    Pearl, Judea

    1994-01-01

    The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifiying causal effects from non-experimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in ter...

  6. Causality between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Bongsuk; Song, Woo-Yong

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates the causal relationship between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies using panel data from 18 countries for the period 1991–2007. A number of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Time series data on public policies and exports are integrated and cointegrated. The dynamic OLS results indicate that in the long run, a 1% increase in government R and D expenditures (RAD) increases exports (EX) by 0.819%. EX and RAD variables respond to deviations from the long-run equilibrium in the previous period. Additionally, the Blundell–Bond system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Evidence of a bidirectional and short-run, and strong causal relationship between EX and the contribution of renewable energy to the total energy supply (CRES) is uncovered. CRES has a negative effect on EX, whereas EX has a positive effect on CRES. We suggest some policy implications based on the results of this study. - Highlights: ► We model VECM to test the Granger causality between the policies and the export. ► Technology-push policy has a positive impact on export in the long-run. ► There are the short-run causal relationships between market-pull policy and export

  7. Investigating the effect of external trauma through a dynamic system modeling approach for clustering causality in diabetic foot ulcer development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi, Parisa; Hamedi, Mohsen; Jamshidi, Nima; Vismeh, Milad

    2017-04-01

    Diabetes and its associated complications are realized as one of the most challenging medical conditions threatening more than 29 million people only in the USA. The forecasts suggest a suffering of more than half a billion worldwide by 2030. Amid all diabetic complications, diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) has attracted much scientific investigations to lead to a better management of this disease. In this paper, a system thinking methodology is adopted to investigate the dynamic nature of the ulceration. The causal loop diagram as a tool is utilized to illustrate the well-researched relations and interrelations between causes of the DFU. The result of clustering causality evaluation suggests a vicious loop that relates external trauma to callus. Consequently a hypothesis is presented which localizes development of foot ulceration considering distribution of normal and shear stress. It specifies that normal and tangential forces, as the main representatives of external trauma, play the most important role in foot ulceration. The evaluation of this hypothesis suggests the significance of the information related to both normal and shear stress for managing DFU. The results also discusses how these two react on different locations on foot such as metatarsal head, heel and hallux. The findings of this study can facilitate tackling the complexity of DFU problem and looking for constructive mitigation measures. Moreover they lead to developing a more promising methodology for managing DFU including better prognosis, designing prosthesis and insoles for DFU and patient caring recommendations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James E.; Menyah, Kojo; Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the causal relationship between CO 2 emissions, nuclear energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984-2007 using a panel error correction model. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions, but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption. The results from the panel Granger causality tests suggest that in the short-run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing CO 2 emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions. This may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand. (author)

  9. Causal Inference and Model Selection in Complex Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shandong

    Propensity score methods have become a part of the standard toolkit for applied researchers who wish to ascertain causal effects from observational data. While they were originally developed for binary treatments, several researchers have proposed generalizations of the propensity score methodology for non-binary treatment regimes. In this article, we firstly review three main methods that generalize propensity scores in this direction, namely, inverse propensity weighting (IPW), the propensity function (P-FUNCTION), and the generalized propensity score (GPS), along with recent extensions of the GPS that aim to improve its robustness. We compare the assumptions, theoretical properties, and empirical performance of these methods. We propose three new methods that provide robust causal estimation based on the P-FUNCTION and GPS. While our proposed P-FUNCTION-based estimator preforms well, we generally advise caution in that all available methods can be biased by model misspecification and extrapolation. In a related line of research, we consider adjustment for posttreatment covariates in causal inference. Even in a randomized experiment, observations might have different compliance performance under treatment and control assignment. This posttreatment covariate cannot be adjusted using standard statistical methods. We review the principal stratification framework which allows for modeling this effect as part of its Bayesian hierarchical models. We generalize the current model to add the possibility of adjusting for pretreatment covariates. We also propose a new estimator of the average treatment effect over the entire population. In a third line of research, we discuss the spectral line detection problem in high energy astrophysics. We carefully review how this problem can be statistically formulated as a precise hypothesis test with point null hypothesis, why a usual likelihood ratio test does not apply for problem of this nature, and a doable fix to correctly

  10. Beyond Markov: Accounting for independence violations in causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob

    2018-06-01

    Although many theories of causal cognition are based on causal graphical models, a key property of such models-the independence relations stipulated by the Markov condition-is routinely violated by human reasoners. This article presents three new accounts of those independence violations, accounts that share the assumption that people's understanding of the correlational structure of data generated from a causal graph differs from that stipulated by causal graphical model framework. To distinguish these models, experiments assessed how people reason with causal graphs that are larger than those tested in previous studies. A traditional common cause network (Y 1 ←X→Y 2 ) was extended so that the effects themselves had effects (Z 1 ←Y 1 ←X→Y 2 →Z 2 ). A traditional common effect network (Y 1 →X←Y 2 ) was extended so that the causes themselves had causes (Z 1 →Y 1 →X←Y 2 ←Z 2 ). Subjects' inferences were most consistent with the beta-Q model in which consistent states of the world-those in which variables are either mostly all present or mostly all absent-are viewed as more probable than stipulated by the causal graphical model framework. Substantial variability in subjects' inferences was also observed, with the result that substantial minorities of subjects were best fit by one of the other models (the dual prototype or a leaky gate models). The discrepancy between normative and human causal cognition stipulated by these models is foundational in the sense that they locate the error not in people's causal reasoning but rather in their causal representations. As a result, they are applicable to any cognitive theory grounded in causal graphical models, including theories of analogy, learning, explanation, categorization, decision-making, and counterfactual reasoning. Preliminary evidence that independence violations indeed generalize to other judgment types is presented. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yuanyuan; Li, Hongkai; Sun, Xiaoru; Su, Ping; Wang, Tingting; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

    2017-12-28

    Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM) were compared. The "do-calculus" was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal strategy was to adjust for the parent nodes of outcome, which

  12. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Yu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Methods Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM were compared. The “do-calculus” was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Results Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal

  13. Uncertainty, causality and decision: The case of social risks and nuclear risk in particular

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahidji, R.

    2012-01-01

    Probability and causality are two indispensable tools for addressing situations of social risk. Causal relations are the foundation for building risk assessment models and identifying risk prevention, mitigation and compensation measures. Probability enables us to quantify risk assessments and to calibrate intervention measures. It therefore seems not only natural, but also necessary to make the role of causality and probability explicit in the definition of decision problems in situations of social risk. Such is the aim of this thesis.By reviewing the terminology of risk and the logic of public interventions in various fields of social risk, we gain a better understanding of the notion and of the issues that one faces when trying to model it. We further elaborate our analysis in the case of nuclear safety, examining in detail how methods and policies have been developed in this field and how they have evolved through time. This leads to a number of observations concerning risk and safety assessments.Generalising the concept of intervention in a Bayesian network allows us to develop a variety of causal Bayesian networks adapted to our needs. In this framework, we propose a definition of risk which seems to be relevant for a broad range of issues. We then offer simple applications of our model to specific aspects of the Fukushima accident and other nuclear safety problems. In addition to specific lessons, the analysis leads to the conclusion that a systematic approach for identifying uncertainties is needed in this area. When applied to decision theory, our tool evolves into a dynamic decision model in which acts cause consequences and are causally interconnected. The model provides a causal interpretation of Savage's conceptual framework, solves some of its paradoxes and clarifies certain aspects. It leads us to considering uncertainty with regard to a problem's causal structure as the source of ambiguity in decision-making, an interpretation which corresponds to a

  14. An Algorithmic Information Calculus for Causal Discovery and Reprogramming Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Zenil, Hector

    2017-09-08

    We introduce a conceptual framework and an interventional calculus to steer and manipulate systems based on their intrinsic algorithmic probability using the universal principles of the theory of computability and algorithmic information. By applying sequences of controlled interventions to systems and networks, we estimate how changes in their algorithmic information content are reflected in positive/negative shifts towards and away from randomness. The strong connection between approximations to algorithmic complexity (the size of the shortest generating mechanism) and causality induces a sequence of perturbations ranking the network elements by the steering capabilities that each of them is capable of. This new dimension unmasks a separation between causal and non-causal components providing a suite of powerful parameter-free algorithms of wide applicability ranging from optimal dimension reduction, maximal randomness analysis and system control. We introduce methods for reprogramming systems that do not require the full knowledge or access to the system\\'s actual kinetic equations or any probability distributions. A causal interventional analysis of synthetic and regulatory biological networks reveals how the algorithmic reprogramming qualitatively reshapes the system\\'s dynamic landscape. For example, during cellular differentiation we find a decrease in the number of elements corresponding to a transition away from randomness and a combination of the system\\'s intrinsic properties and its intrinsic capabilities to be algorithmically reprogrammed can reconstruct an epigenetic landscape. The interventional calculus is broadly applicable to predictive causal inference of systems such as networks and of relevance to a variety of machine and causal learning techniques driving model-based approaches to better understanding and manipulate complex systems.

  15. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-01-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

  16. On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apergis, Nicholas [Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Karaoli and Dimitriou 80, Piraeus, ATTIKI 18534 (Greece); Payne, James E. [Department of Economics, Illinois State University, Normal, IL 61790-4200 (United States); Menyah, Kojo [London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University, 84 Moorgate, London, EC2M 6SQ (United Kingdom); Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the causal relationship between CO{sub 2} emissions, nuclear energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984-2007 using a panel error correction model. The long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions, but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption. The results from the panel Granger causality tests suggest that in the short-run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions. This may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand. (author)

  17. Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

    2012-11-01

    Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

    2017-11-30

    Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwirglmaier, Kilian; Straub, Daniel; Groth, Katrina M.

    2017-01-01

    reIn the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have been identified as a powerful tool for human reliability analysis (HRA), with multiple advantages over traditional HRA methods. In this paper we illustrate how BNs can be used to include additional, qualitative causal paths to provide traceability. The proposed framework provides the foundation to resolve several needs frequently expressed by the HRA community. First, the developed extended BN structure reflects the causal paths found in cognitive psychology literature, thereby addressing the need for causal traceability and strong scientific basis in HRA. Secondly, the use of node reduction algorithms allows the BN to be condensed to a level of detail at which quantification is as straightforward as the techniques used in existing HRA. We illustrate the framework by developing a BN version of the critical data misperceived crew failure mode in the IDHEAS HRA method, which is currently under development at the US NRC . We illustrate how the model could be quantified with a combination of expert-probabilities and information from operator performance databases such as SACADA. This paper lays the foundations necessary to expand the cognitive and quantitative foundations of HRA. - Highlights: • A framework for building traceable BNs for HRA, based on cognitive causal paths. • A qualitative BN structure, directly showing these causal paths is developed. • Node reduction algorithms are used for making the BN structure quantifiable. • BN quantified through expert estimates and observed data (Bayesian updating). • The framework is illustrated for a crew failure mode of IDHEAS.

  20. Interactions of information transfer along separable causal paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Peishi; Kumar, Praveen

    2018-04-01

    Complex systems arise as a result of interdependences between multiple variables, whose causal interactions can be visualized in a time-series graph. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependences. However, these approaches capture net information transfer occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within a subgraph of interest through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062829 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062829] to develop a framework for quantifying information partitioning along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information transfer between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique, and redundant information transfer through separable causal paths. Through a graphical model, we analyze the impact of the separable and nonseparable causal paths and the causality structure embedded in the graph as well as the noise effect on information partitioning by using synthetic data generated from two coupled logistic equation models. Our approach can provide a valuable reference for an autonomous information partitioning along separable causal paths which form a causal subgraph influencing a target.

  1. Behavioural Pattern of Causality Parameter of Autoregressive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, a causal form of Autoregressive Moving Average process, ARMA (p, q) of various orders and behaviour of the causality parameter of ARMA model is investigated. It is deduced that the behaviour of causality parameter ψi depends on positive and negative values of autoregressive parameter φ and moving ...

  2. Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dziopa, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

  3. Effective Connectivity between Ventral Occipito-Temporal and Ventral Inferior Frontal Cortex during Lexico-Semantic Processing. A Dynamic Causal Modeling Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Perrone-Bertolotti

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that dorsal and ventral pathways support distinct aspects of language processing. Yet, the full extent of their involvement and their inter-regional connectivity in visual word recognition is still unknown. Studies suggest that they might reflect the dual-route model of reading, with the dorsal pathway more involved in grapho-phonological conversion during phonological tasks, and the ventral pathway performing lexico-semantic access during semantic tasks. Furthermore, this subdivision is also suggested at the level of the inferior frontal cortex, involving ventral and dorsal parts for lexico-semantic and phonological processing, respectively. In the present study, we assessed inter-regional brain connectivity and task-induced modulations of brain activity during a phoneme detection and semantic categorization tasks, using fMRI in healthy subject. We used a dynamic causal modeling approach to assess inter-regional connectivity and task demand modulation within the dorsal and ventral pathways, including the following network components: the ventral occipito-temporal cortex (vOTC; dorsal and ventral, the superior temporal gyrus (STG; dorsal, the dorsal inferior frontal gyrus (dIFG; dorsal, and the ventral IFG (vIFG; ventral. We report three distinct inter-regional interactions supporting orthographic information transfer from vOTC to other language regions (vOTC -> STG, vOTC -> vIFG and vOTC -> dIFG regardless of task demands. Moreover, we found that (a during semantic processing (direct ventral pathway the vOTC -> vIFG connection strength specifically increased and (b a lack of modulation of the vOTC -> dIFG connection strength by the task that could suggest a more general involvement of the dorsal pathway during visual word recognition. Results are discussed in terms of anatomo-functional connectivity of visual word recognition network.

  4. Comparison of causality analysis on simultaneously measured fMRI and NIRS signals during motor tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Abdul Rauf; Muthalib, Makii; Perrey, Stephane; Galka, Andreas; Granert, Oliver; Wolff, Stephan; Deuschl, Guenther; Raethjen, Jan; Heute, Ulrich; Muthuraman, Muthuraman

    2013-01-01

    Brain activity can be measured using different modalities. Since most of the modalities tend to complement each other, it seems promising to measure them simultaneously. In to be presented research, the data recorded from Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS), simultaneously, are subjected to causality analysis using time-resolved partial directed coherence (tPDC). Time-resolved partial directed coherence uses the principle of state space modelling to estimate Multivariate Autoregressive (MVAR) coefficients. This method is useful to visualize both frequency and time dynamics of causality between the time series. Afterwards, causality results from different modalities are compared by estimating the Spearman correlation. In to be presented study, we used directionality vectors to analyze correlation, rather than actual signal vectors. Results show that causality analysis of the fMRI correlates more closely to causality results of oxy-NIRS as compared to deoxy-NIRS in case of a finger sequencing task. However, in case of simple finger tapping, no clear difference between oxy-fMRI and deoxy-fMRI correlation is identified.

  5. Causal Modeling of Secondary Science Students' Intentions to Enroll in Physics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

    1992-01-01

    Reports a study using the causal modeling method to verify underlying causes of student interest in enrolling in physics as predicted by the theory of planned behavior. Families were identified as major referents in the social support system for physics enrollment. Course and extracurricular conflicts and fear of failure were primary beliefs…

  6. Classical planning and causal implicatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

    In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...... to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate...

  7. Causality and superluminal behavior in classical field theories: Applications to k-essence theories and modified-Newtonian-dynamics-like theories of gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruneton, Jean-Philippe

    2007-01-01

    Field theories with Lorentz (or diffeomorphism invariant) action can exhibit superluminal behavior through the breaking of local Lorentz invariance. Quantum induced superluminal velocities are well-known examples of this effect. The issue of the causal behavior of such propagation is somewhat controversial in the literature and we intend to clarify it. We provide a careful analysis of the meaning of causality in classical relativistic field theories and stress the role played by the Cauchy problem and the notion of chronology. We show that, in general, superluminal behavior threatens causality only if one assumes that a prior chronology in spacetime exists. In the case where superluminal propagation occurs, however, there are at least two nonconformally related metrics in spacetime and thus two available notions of chronology. These two chronologies are on equal footing, and it would thus be misleading to choose ab initio one of them to define causality. Rather, we provide a formulation of causality in which no prior chronology is assumed. We argue that this is the only way to deal with the issue of causality in the case where some degrees of freedom propagate faster than others. In that framework, then, it is shown that superluminal propagation is not necessarily noncausal, the final answer depending on the existence of an initial data formulation. This also depends on global properties of spacetime that we discuss in detail. As an illustration of these conceptual issues, we consider two field theories, namely, k-essence scalar fields and bimetric theories of gravity, and we derive the conditions imposed by causality. We discuss various applications such as the dark energy problem, modified-Newtonian-dynamics-like theories of gravity, and varying speed of light theories

  8. On the dynamics of aggregate output, electricity consumption and exports in Malaysia: Evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; Smyth, Russell

    2010-01-01

    This paper employs annual data from 1971 to 2006 to examine the causal relationship between aggregate output, electricity consumption, exports, labor and capital in a multivariate model for Malaysia. We find that there is bidirectional Granger causality running between aggregate output and electricity consumption. The policy implication of this result is that Malaysia should adopt the dual strategy of increasing investment in electricity infrastructure and stepping up electricity conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of electricity, in order to avoid the negative effect of reducing electricity consumption on aggregate output. We also find support for the export-led hypothesis which states Granger causality runs from exports to aggregate output. This result is consistent with Malaysia pursuing a successful export-orientated strategy. (author)

  9. An investigation of factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values based on the system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Tian-Syung; Chen, Kai-Ling; Chen, Pin-Chang; Ku, Chao-Tai; Chiu, Pei-Hsuan; Wang, Meng-Hsiang

    2014-01-01

    This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student's personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students' peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students' amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students' high-calorie diets.

  10. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    OpenAIRE

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic lite...

  11. A hierarchical causal modeling for large industrial plants supervision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dziopa, P.; Leyval, L.

    1994-01-01

    A supervision system has to analyse the process current state and the way it will evolve after a modification of the inputs or disturbance. It is proposed to base this analysis on a hierarchy of models, witch differ by the number of involved variables and the abstraction level used to describe their temporal evolution. In a first step, special attention is paid to causal models building, from the most abstract one. Once the hierarchy of models has been build, the most detailed model parameters are estimated. Several models of different abstraction levels can be used for on line prediction. These methods have been applied to a nuclear reprocessing plant. The abstraction level could be chosen on line by the operator. Moreover when an abnormal process behaviour is detected a more detailed model is automatically triggered in order to focus the operator attention on the suspected subsystem. (authors). 11 refs., 11 figs

  12. Causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter Moors

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Philosophers have long argued that causality cannot be directly observed but requires a conscious inference (Hume, 1967. Albert Michotte however developed numerous visual phenomena in which people seemed to perceive causality akin to primary visual properties like colour or motion (Michotte, 1946. Michotte claimed that the perception of causality did not require a conscious, deliberate inference but, working over 70 years ago, he did not have access to the experimental methods to test this claim. Here we employ Continuous Flash Suppression (CFS—an interocular suppression technique to render stimuli invisible (Tsuchiya & Koch, 2005—to test whether causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events. We presented observers with ‘causal’ and ‘non-causal’ events, and found consistent evidence that participants become aware of causal events more rapidly than non-causal events. Our results suggest that, whilst causality must be inferred from sensory evidence, this inference might be computed at low levels of perceptual processing, and does not depend on a deliberative conscious evaluation of the stimulus. This work therefore supports Michotte’s contention that, like colour or motion, causality is an immediate property of our perception of the world.

  13. A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

  14. Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…

  15. Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Miller, Scott; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Archer, Erik; Roper, Brett B.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of

  16. Modeling the Effect of Religion on Human Empathy Based on an Adaptive Temporal-Causal Network Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ments, L.I.; Roelofsma, P.H.M.P.; Treur, J.

    2018-01-01

    Religion is a central aspect of many individuals’ lives around the world, and its influence on human behaviour has been extensively studied from many different perspectives. The current study integrates a number of these perspectives into one adaptive temporal-causal network model describing the

  17. A Causal Inference Model Explains Perception of the McGurk Effect and Other Incongruent Audiovisual Speech.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John F Magnotti

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Audiovisual speech integration combines information from auditory speech (talker's voice and visual speech (talker's mouth movements to improve perceptual accuracy. However, if the auditory and visual speech emanate from different talkers, integration decreases accuracy. Therefore, a key step in audiovisual speech perception is deciding whether auditory and visual speech have the same source, a process known as causal inference. A well-known illusion, the McGurk Effect, consists of incongruent audiovisual syllables, such as auditory "ba" + visual "ga" (AbaVga, that are integrated to produce a fused percept ("da". This illusion raises two fundamental questions: first, given the incongruence between the auditory and visual syllables in the McGurk stimulus, why are they integrated; and second, why does the McGurk effect not occur for other, very similar syllables (e.g., AgaVba. We describe a simplified model of causal inference in multisensory speech perception (CIMS that predicts the perception of arbitrary combinations of auditory and visual speech. We applied this model to behavioral data collected from 60 subjects perceiving both McGurk and non-McGurk incongruent speech stimuli. The CIMS model successfully predicted both the audiovisual integration observed for McGurk stimuli and the lack of integration observed for non-McGurk stimuli. An identical model without causal inference failed to accurately predict perception for either form of incongruent speech. The CIMS model uses causal inference to provide a computational framework for studying how the brain performs one of its most important tasks, integrating auditory and visual speech cues to allow us to communicate with others.

  18. A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Jack; Evans, Elizabeth; Zielinski, Ann

    2010-01-01

    Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. PMID:20167899

  19. Theories of Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robert

    2010-03-01

    There are a wide range of views on causality. To some (e.g. Karl Popper) causality is superfluous. Bertrand Russell said ``In advanced science the word cause never occurs. Causality is a relic of a bygone age.'' At the other extreme Rafael Sorkin and L. Bombelli suggest that space and time do not exist but are only an approximation to a reality that is simply a discrete ordered set, a ``causal set.'' For them causality IS reality. Others, like Judea Pearl and Nancy Cartwright are seaking to build a complex fundamental theory of causality (Causality, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000) Or perhaps a theory of causality is simply the theory of functions. This is more or less my take on causality.

  20. Causal learning is collaborative: Examining explanation and exploration in social contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H; Sobel, David M; Callanan, Maureen

    2017-10-01

    Causal learning in childhood is a dynamic and collaborative process of explanation and exploration within complex physical and social environments. Understanding how children learn causal knowledge requires examining how they update beliefs about the world given novel information and studying the processes by which children learn in collaboration with caregivers, educators, and peers. The objective of this article is to review evidence for how children learn causal knowledge by explaining and exploring in collaboration with others. We review three examples of causal learning in social contexts, which elucidate how interaction with others influences causal learning. First, we consider children's explanation-seeking behaviors in the form of "why" questions. Second, we examine parents' elaboration of meaning about causal relations. Finally, we consider parents' interactive styles with children during free play, which constrains how children explore. We propose that the best way to understand children's causal learning in social context is to combine results from laboratory and natural interactive informal learning environments.

  1. Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

    2017-01-01

    Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity

  2. Causality in cancer research: a journey through models in molecular epidemiology and their philosophical interpretation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Vineis

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the last decades, Systems Biology (including cancer research has been driven by technology, statistical modelling and bioinformatics. In this paper we try to bring biological and philosophical thinking back. We thus aim at making different traditions of thought compatible: (a causality in epidemiology and in philosophical theorizing—notably, the “sufficient-component-cause framework” and the “mark transmission” approach; (b new acquisitions about disease pathogenesis, e.g. the “branched model” in cancer, and the role of biomarkers in this process; (c the burgeoning of omics research, with a large number of “signals” and of associations that need to be interpreted. In the paper we summarize first the current views on carcinogenesis, and then explore the relevance of current philosophical interpretations of “cancer causes”. We try to offer a unifying framework to incorporate biomarkers and omic data into causal models, referring to a position called “evidential pluralism”. According to this view, causal reasoning is based on both “evidence of difference-making” (e.g. associations and on “evidence of underlying biological mechanisms”. We conceptualize the way scientists detect and trace signals in terms of information transmission, which is a generalization of the mark transmission theory developed by philosopher Wesley Salmon. Our approach is capable of helping us conceptualize how heterogeneous factors such as micro and macro-biological and psycho-social—are causally linked. This is important not only to understand cancer etiology, but also to design public health policies that target the right causal factors at the macro-level.

  3. The Dynamics of Concussion: Mapping Pathophysiology, Persistence, and Recovery With Causal-Loop Diagramming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenzie, Erin S; Parks, Elle L; Bigler, Erin D; Wright, David W; Lim, Miranda M; Chesnutt, James C; Hawryluk, Gregory W J; Gordon, Wayne; Wakeland, Wayne

    2018-01-01

    Despite increasing public awareness and a growing body of literature on the subject of concussion, or mild traumatic brain injury, an urgent need still exists for reliable diagnostic measures, clinical care guidelines, and effective treatments for the condition. Complexity and heterogeneity complicate research efforts and indicate the need for innovative approaches to synthesize current knowledge in order to improve clinical outcomes. Methods from the interdisciplinary field of systems science, including models of complex systems, have been increasingly applied to biomedical applications and show promise for generating insight for traumatic brain injury. The current study uses causal-loop diagramming to visualize relationships between factors influencing the pathophysiology and recovery trajectories of concussive injury, including persistence of symptoms and deficits. The primary output is a series of preliminary systems maps detailing feedback loops, intrinsic dynamics, exogenous drivers, and hubs across several scales, from micro-level cellular processes to social influences. Key system features, such as the role of specific restorative feedback processes and cross-scale connections, are examined and discussed in the context of recovery trajectories. This systems approach integrates research findings across disciplines and allows components to be considered in relation to larger system influences, which enables the identification of research gaps, supports classification efforts, and provides a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration and communication-all strides that would benefit diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment in the clinic.

  4. The Dynamics of Concussion: Mapping Pathophysiology, Persistence, and Recovery With Causal-Loop Diagramming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin S. Kenzie

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing public awareness and a growing body of literature on the subject of concussion, or mild traumatic brain injury, an urgent need still exists for reliable diagnostic measures, clinical care guidelines, and effective treatments for the condition. Complexity and heterogeneity complicate research efforts and indicate the need for innovative approaches to synthesize current knowledge in order to improve clinical outcomes. Methods from the interdisciplinary field of systems science, including models of complex systems, have been increasingly applied to biomedical applications and show promise for generating insight for traumatic brain injury. The current study uses causal-loop diagramming to visualize relationships between factors influencing the pathophysiology and recovery trajectories of concussive injury, including persistence of symptoms and deficits. The primary output is a series of preliminary systems maps detailing feedback loops, intrinsic dynamics, exogenous drivers, and hubs across several scales, from micro-level cellular processes to social influences. Key system features, such as the role of specific restorative feedback processes and cross-scale connections, are examined and discussed in the context of recovery trajectories. This systems approach integrates research findings across disciplines and allows components to be considered in relation to larger system influences, which enables the identification of research gaps, supports classification efforts, and provides a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration and communication—all strides that would benefit diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment in the clinic.

  5. Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebiye Yamak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

  6. From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

    2015-01-01

    In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.

  7. An Investigation of Factors Affecting Elementary School Students’ BMI Values Based on the System Dynamics Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian-Syung Lan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students’ BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student’s personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students’ peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students’ amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students’ high-calorie diets.

  8. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

    2016-03-01

    Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

  10. Toward a formalized account of attitudes: The Causal Attitude Network (CAN) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalege, Jonas; Borsboom, Denny; van Harreveld, Frenk; van den Berg, Helma; Conner, Mark; van der Maas, Han L J

    2016-01-01

    This article introduces the Causal Attitude Network (CAN) model, which conceptualizes attitudes as networks consisting of evaluative reactions and interactions between these reactions. Relevant evaluative reactions include beliefs, feelings, and behaviors toward the attitude object. Interactions between these reactions arise through direct causal influences (e.g., the belief that snakes are dangerous causes fear of snakes) and mechanisms that support evaluative consistency between related contents of evaluative reactions (e.g., people tend to align their belief that snakes are useful with their belief that snakes help maintain ecological balance). In the CAN model, the structure of attitude networks conforms to a small-world structure: evaluative reactions that are similar to each other form tight clusters, which are connected by a sparser set of "shortcuts" between them. We argue that the CAN model provides a realistic formalized measurement model of attitudes and therefore fills a crucial gap in the attitude literature. Furthermore, the CAN model provides testable predictions for the structure of attitudes and how they develop, remain stable, and change over time. Attitude strength is conceptualized in terms of the connectivity of attitude networks and we show that this provides a parsimonious account of the differences between strong and weak attitudes. We discuss the CAN model in relation to possible extensions, implication for the assessment of attitudes, and possibilities for further study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

    2017-04-01

    Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger

  12. IT-enabled dynamic capability on performance: An empirical study of BSC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilson Carlos Yoshikuni

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available ew studies have investigated the influence of “information capital,” through IT-enabled dynamic capability, on corporate performance, particularly in economic turbulence. Our study investigates the causal relationship between performance perspectives of the balanced scorecard using partial least squares path modeling. Using data on 845 Brazilian companies, we conduct a quantitative empirical study of firms during an economic crisis and observe the following interesting results. Operational and analytical IT-enabled dynamic capability had positive effects on business process improvement and corporate performance. Results pertaining to mediation (endogenous variables and moderation (control variables clarify IT’s role in and benefits for corporate performance.

  13. Spatial-Temporal Synchrophasor Data Characterization and Analytics in Smart Grid Fault Detection, Identification, and Impact Causal Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Huaiguang; Dai, Xiaoxiao; Gao, David Wenzhong; Zhang, Jun Jason; Zhang, Yingchen; Muljadi, Eduard

    2016-09-01

    An approach of big data characterization for smart grids (SGs) and its applications in fault detection, identification, and causal impact analysis is proposed in this paper, which aims to provide substantial data volume reduction while keeping comprehensive information from synchrophasor measurements in spatial and temporal domains. Especially, based on secondary voltage control (SVC) and local SG observation algorithm, a two-layer dynamic optimal synchrophasor measurement devices selection algorithm (OSMDSA) is proposed to determine SVC zones, their corresponding pilot buses, and the optimal synchrophasor measurement devices. Combining the two-layer dynamic OSMDSA and matching pursuit decomposition, the synchrophasor data is completely characterized in the spatial-temporal domain. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characterization approach, SG situational awareness is investigated based on hidden Markov model based fault detection and identification using the spatial-temporal characteristics generated from the reduced data. To identify the major impact buses, the weighted Granger causality for SGs is proposed to investigate the causal relationship of buses during system disturbance. The IEEE 39-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system are employed to validate and evaluate the proposed approach.

  14. Interrelated dynamics of health and poverty in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Buddelmeyer, Hielke; Cai, Lixin

    2009-01-01

    Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this study examines the joint dynamics of health and poverty in Australian families. Taking advantage of panel data, the modelling approach used in this study allows a better estimation of the causal relationship between health and poverty. The results indicate that the causality between health and poverty runs both ways and the relationship is confounded by unobserved heterogeneity. In particular, it is found that f...

  15. Dynamics of large-scale cortical interactions at high gamma frequencies during word production: event related causality (ERC) analysis of human electrocorticography (ECoG).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korzeniewska, Anna; Franaszczuk, Piotr J; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M; Kuś, Rafał; Crone, Nathan E

    2011-06-15

    Intracranial EEG studies in humans have shown that functional brain activation in a variety of functional-anatomic domains of human cortex is associated with an increase in power at a broad range of high gamma (>60Hz) frequencies. Although these electrophysiological responses are highly specific for the location and timing of cortical processing and in animal recordings are highly correlated with increased population firing rates, there has been little direct empirical evidence for causal interactions between different recording sites at high gamma frequencies. Such causal interactions are hypothesized to occur during cognitive tasks that activate multiple brain regions. To determine whether such causal interactions occur at high gamma frequencies and to investigate their functional significance, we used event-related causality (ERC) analysis to estimate the dynamics, directionality, and magnitude of event-related causal interactions using subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recorded during two word production tasks: picture naming and auditory word repetition. A clinical subject who had normal hearing but was skilled in American Signed Language (ASL) provided a unique opportunity to test our hypothesis with reference to a predictable pattern of causal interactions, i.e. that language cortex interacts with different areas of sensorimotor cortex during spoken vs. signed responses. Our ERC analyses confirmed this prediction. During word production with spoken responses, perisylvian language sites had prominent causal interactions with mouth/tongue areas of motor cortex, and when responses were gestured in sign language, the most prominent interactions involved hand and arm areas of motor cortex. Furthermore, we found that the sites from which the most numerous and prominent causal interactions originated, i.e. sites with a pattern of ERC "divergence", were also sites where high gamma power increases were most prominent and where electrocortical stimulation mapping

  16. Causal boundary for stably causal space-times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Racz, I.

    1987-12-01

    The usual boundary constructions for space-times often yield an unsatisfactory boundary set. This problem is reviewed and a new solution is proposed. An explicit identification rule is given on the set of the ideal points of the space-time. This construction leads to a satisfactory boundary point set structure for stably causal space-times. The topological properties of the resulting causal boundary construction are examined. For the stably causal space-times each causal curve has a unique endpoint on the boundary set according to the extended Alexandrov topology. The extension of the space-time through the boundary is discussed. To describe the singularities the defined boundary sets have to be separated into two disjoint sets. (D.Gy.) 8 refs

  17. Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentler, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

  18. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimidis Steven

    2007-07-01

    persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.

  19. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

    2007-07-24

    types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.

  20. Evaluation of Sustainability of Brazilian Ethanol Production: A model in System Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnoldo Jose de Hoyos Guevara

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics is an approach to analyze the behavior of complex systems, such as the productive chains, strictly considering the inherent characteristics. This approach is based on mathematical concepts of nonlinear processes developed in mathematics and physics and consolidated in engineering. The concepts inherent in this approach assists in creating a mathematical model that represents a production chain by using computer simulation. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to present the formalization of the dynamic model of assessing the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol production. We analyzed the external environment and the scenarios needed for a deeper understanding of relation of cause and effect, causal loops and diagrams of flows and stocks because of the awareness stage, with regard to understanding the problems involved, according to methodology known as design science.

  1. Causal biological network database: a comprehensive platform of causal biological network models focused on the pulmonary and vascular systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boué, Stéphanie; Talikka, Marja; Westra, Jurjen Willem; Hayes, William; Di Fabio, Anselmo; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K; Sewer, Alain; Fields, Brett; Ansari, Sam; Martin, Florian; Veljkovic, Emilija; Kenney, Renee; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-01-01

    With the wealth of publications and data available, powerful and transparent computational approaches are required to represent measured data and scientific knowledge in a computable and searchable format. We developed a set of biological network models, scripted in the Biological Expression Language, that reflect causal signaling pathways across a wide range of biological processes, including cell fate, cell stress, cell proliferation, inflammation, tissue repair and angiogenesis in the pulmonary and cardiovascular context. This comprehensive collection of networks is now freely available to the scientific community in a centralized web-based repository, the Causal Biological Network database, which is composed of over 120 manually curated and well annotated biological network models and can be accessed at http://causalbionet.com. The website accesses a MongoDB, which stores all versions of the networks as JSON objects and allows users to search for genes, proteins, biological processes, small molecules and keywords in the network descriptions to retrieve biological networks of interest. The content of the networks can be visualized and browsed. Nodes and edges can be filtered and all supporting evidence for the edges can be browsed and is linked to the original articles in PubMed. Moreover, networks may be downloaded for further visualization and evaluation. Database URL: http://causalbionet.com © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  2. Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Hettinger, Lawrence J

    2016-01-01

    Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered. Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.

  3. Scalar field Green functions on causal sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomaan Ahmed, S; Surya, Sumati; Dowker, Fay

    2017-01-01

    We examine the validity and scope of Johnston’s models for scalar field retarded Green functions on causal sets in 2 and 4 dimensions. As in the continuum, the massive Green function can be obtained from the massless one, and hence the key task in causal set theory is to first identify the massless Green function. We propose that the 2d model provides a Green function for the massive scalar field on causal sets approximated by any topologically trivial 2-dimensional spacetime. We explicitly demonstrate that this is indeed the case in a Riemann normal neighbourhood. In 4d the model can again be used to provide a Green function for the massive scalar field in a Riemann normal neighbourhood which we compare to Bunch and Parker’s continuum Green function. We find that the same prescription can also be used for de Sitter spacetime and the conformally flat patch of anti-de Sitter spacetime. Our analysis then allows us to suggest a generalisation of Johnston’s model for the Green function for a causal set approximated by 3-dimensional flat spacetime. (paper)

  4. Causal universe

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

    2013-01-01

    Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

  5. Anterior cingulate cortex-related connectivity in first-episode schizophrenia: a spectral dynamic causal modeling study with functional magnetic resonance imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long-Biao eCui

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the neural basis of schizophrenia (SZ is important for shedding light on the neurobiological mechanisms underlying this mental disorder. Structural and functional alterations in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC, hippocampus, and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC have been implicated in the neurobiology of SZ. However, the effective connectivity among them in SZ remains unclear. The current study investigated how neuronal pathways involving these regions were affected in first-episode SZ using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. Forty-nine patients with a first-episode of psychosis and diagnosis of SZ—according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision—were studied. Fifty healthy controls (HCs were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state fMRI. We used spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM to estimate directed connections among the bilateral ACC, DLPFC, hippocampus, and MPFC. We characterized the differences using Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA in addition to classical inference (t-test. In addition to common effective connectivity in these two groups, HCs displayed widespread significant connections predominantly involved in ACC not detected in SZ patients, but SZ showed few connections. Based on BPA results, SZ patients exhibited anterior cingulate cortico-prefrontal-hippocampal hyperconnectivity, as well as ACC-related and hippocampal-dorsolateral prefrontal-medial prefrontal hypoconnectivity. In summary, sDCM revealed the pattern of effective connectivity involving ACC in patients with first-episode SZ. This study provides a potential link between SZ and dysfunction of ACC, creating an ideal situation to associate mechanisms behind SZ with aberrant connectivity among these cognition and emotion-related regions.

  6. Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xolani Ndlovu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

  7. Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

    OpenAIRE

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

    2011-01-01

    In the last two decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that we can classify indicators into two categories, effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. This paper argues that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and three types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the “three Cs”). Caus...

  8. Causal relationship: a new tool for the causal characterization of Lorentzian manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Senovilla, Jose M M

    2003-01-01

    We define and study a new kind of relation between two diffeomorphic Lorentzian manifolds called a causal relation, which is any diffeomorphism characterized by mapping every causal vector of the first manifold onto a causal vector of the second. We perform a thorough study of the mathematical properties of causal relations and prove in particular that two given Lorentzian manifolds (say V and W) may be causally related only in one direction (say from V to W, but not from W to V). This leads us to the concept of causally equivalent (or isocausal in short) Lorentzian manifolds as those mutually causally related and to a definition of causal structure over a differentiable manifold as the equivalence class formed by isocausal Lorentzian metrics upon it. Isocausality is a more general concept than the conformal relationship, because we prove the remarkable result that a conformal relation φ is characterized by the fact of being a causal relation of the particular kind in which both φ and φ -1 are causal relations. Isocausal Lorentzian manifolds are mutually causally compatible, they share some important causal properties, and there are one-to-one correspondences, which are sometimes non-trivial, between several classes of their respective future (and past) objects. A more important feature is that they satisfy the same standard causality constraints. We also introduce a partial order for the equivalence classes of isocausal Lorentzian manifolds providing a classification of all the causal structures that a given fixed manifold can have. By introducing the concept of causal extension we put forward a new definition of causal boundary for Lorentzian manifolds based on the concept of isocausality, and thereby we generalize the traditional Penrose constructions of conformal infinity, diagrams and embeddings. In particular, the concept of causal diagram is given. Many explicit clarifying examples are presented throughout the paper

  9. A developmental approach to learning causal models for cyber security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugan, Jonathan

    2013-05-01

    To keep pace with our adversaries, we must expand the scope of machine learning and reasoning to address the breadth of possible attacks. One approach is to employ an algorithm to learn a set of causal models that describes the entire cyber network and each host end node. Such a learning algorithm would run continuously on the system and monitor activity in real time. With a set of causal models, the algorithm could anticipate novel attacks, take actions to thwart them, and predict the second-order effects flood of information, and the algorithm would have to determine which streams of that flood were relevant in which situations. This paper will present the results of efforts toward the application of a developmental learning algorithm to the problem of cyber security. The algorithm is modeled on the principles of human developmental learning and is designed to allow an agent to learn about the computer system in which it resides through active exploration. Children are flexible learners who acquire knowledge by actively exploring their environment and making predictions about what they will find,1, 2 and our algorithm is inspired by the work of the developmental psychologist Jean Piaget.3 Piaget described how children construct knowledge in stages and learn new concepts on top of those they already know. Developmental learning allows our algorithm to focus on subsets of the environment that are most helpful for learning given its current knowledge. In experiments, the algorithm was able to learn the conditions for file exfiltration and use that knowledge to protect sensitive files.

  10. On the conceptual distinction of general causality orientations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Martin Hammershøj

    electronic questionnaires of dispositional personality traits (NEO-FFI) and general causality orientations (GCOS). Proposed separate latent models and alternative shared latent models of the underlying individual differences constructs had been developed in a previous exploratory study (Olesen, Thomsen......, that is general causality orientations can be understood as characteristic adaptations of dispositional traits....

  11. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

    2016-08-01

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  12. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, Jan de [Institute of Physics, Universiteit van Amsterdam,Science Park 904, 1090 GL Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haehl, Felix M. [Centre for Particle Theory & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University,South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C. [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics,31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

    2016-08-29

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be re-organized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglement entropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  13. Modeling the Effect of Religion on Human Empathy Based on an Adaptive Temporal-Causal Network Model

    OpenAIRE

    van Ments, L.I.; Roelofsma, P.H.M.P.; Treur, J.

    2018-01-01

    Religion is a central aspect of many individuals’ lives around the world, and its influence on human behaviour has been extensively studied from many different perspectives. The current study integrates a number of these perspectives into one adaptive temporal-causal network model describing the mental states involved, their mutual relations, and the adaptation of some of these relations over time due to learning. By first developing a conceptual representation of a network model based on lit...

  14. Finance and growth : Time series evidence on causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peia, Oana; Roszbach, Kasper

    2015-01-01

    This paper re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between the real and the financial sector

  15. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  16. Subliminal semantic priming changes the dynamic causal influence between the left frontal and temporal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Atsushi; Kakigi, Ryusuke

    2014-01-01

    Recent neuroimaging experiments have revealed that subliminal priming of a target stimulus leads to the reduction of neural activity in specific regions concerned with processing the target. Such findings lead to questions about the degree to which the subliminal priming effect is based only on decreased activity in specific local brain regions, as opposed to the influence of neural mechanisms that regulate communication between brain regions. To address this question, this study recorded EEG during performance of a subliminal semantic priming task. We adopted an information-based approach that used independent component analysis and multivariate autoregressive modeling. Results indicated that subliminal semantic priming caused significant modulation of alpha band activity in the left inferior frontal cortex and modulation of gamma band activity in the left inferior temporal regions. The multivariate autoregressive approach confirmed significant increases in information flow from the inferior frontal cortex to inferior temporal regions in the early time window that was induced by subliminal priming. In the later time window, significant enhancement of bidirectional causal flow between these two regions underlying subliminal priming was observed. Results suggest that unconscious processing of words influences not only local activity of individual brain regions but also the dynamics of neural communication between those regions.

  17. Granger-Causality Maps of Diffusion Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wahl, B.; Feudel, U.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, M.; Peinke, J.; Freund, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 93, č. 2 16 February (2016), č. článku 022213. ISSN 2470-0045 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Granger causality * stochastic process * diffusion process * nonlinear dynamical systems Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.366, year: 2016

  18. Causal analysis of self-sustaining processes in the log-layer of wall-bounded turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano-Duran, Adrian; Bae, Hyunji Jane

    2017-11-01

    Despite the large amount of information provided by direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows, the underlying dynamics remain elusive even in the most simple and canonical configurations. Most standard methods used to investigate turbulence do not provide a clear causal inference between events, which is necessary to determine this dynamics, particularly in self-sustaning processes. In the present work, we examine the causal interactions between streaks and rolls in the logarithmic layer of minimal turbulent channel flow. Causality between structures is assessed in a non-intrusive manner by transfer entropy, i.e., how much the uncertainty of one structure is reduced by knowing the past states of the others. Streaks are represented by the first Fourier modes of the streamwise velocity, while rolls are defined by the wall-normal and spanwise velocities. The results show that the process is mainly unidirectional rather than cyclic, and that the log-layer motions are sustained by extracting energy from the mean shear, which controls the dynamics and time-scales. The well-known lift-up effect is shown to be not a key ingredient in the causal network between shear, streaks and rolls. Funded by ERC Coturb Madrid Summer Program.

  19. Causal analysis of self-sustaining processes in the logarithmic layer of wall-bounded turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, H. J.; Encinar, M. P.; Lozano-Durán, A.

    2018-04-01

    Despite the large amount of information provided by direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows, their underlying dynamics remain elusive even in the most simple and canonical configurations. Most common approaches to investigate the turbulence phenomena do not provide a clear causal inference between events, which is essential to determine the dynamics of self-sustaining processes. In the present work, we examine the causal interactions between streaks, rolls and mean shear in the logarithmic layer of a minimal turbulent channel flow. Causality between structures is assessed in a non-intrusive manner by transfer entropy, i.e., how much the uncertainty of one structure is reduced by knowing the past states of the others. We choose to represent streaks by the first Fourier modes of the streamwise velocity, while rolls are defined by the wall-normal and spanwise velocity modes. The results show that the process is mainly unidirectional rather than cyclic, and that the log-layer motions are sustained by extracting energy from the mean shear which controls the dynamics and time-scales. The well-known lift-up effect is also identified, but shown to be of secondary importance in the causal network between shear, streaks and rolls.

  20. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  1. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-07-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  2. Causality in Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Puente Águeda

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Causality is a fundamental notion in every field of science. Since the times of Aristotle, causal relationships have been a matter of study as a way to generate knowledge and provide for explanations. In this paper I review the notion of causality through different scientific areas such as physics, biology, engineering, etc. In the scientific area, causality is usually seen as a precise relation: the same cause provokes always the same effect. But in the everyday world, the links between cause and effect are frequently imprecise or imperfect in nature. Fuzzy logic offers an adequate framework for dealing with imperfect causality, so a few notions of fuzzy causality are introduced.

  3. Introductive remarks on causal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana A. Romio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

  4. Causal inference of asynchronous audiovisual speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John F Magnotti

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available During speech perception, humans integrate auditory information from the voice with visual information from the face. This multisensory integration increases perceptual precision, but only if the two cues come from the same talker; this requirement has been largely ignored by current models of speech perception. We describe a generative model of multisensory speech perception that includes this critical step of determining the likelihood that the voice and face information have a common cause. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a principled analysis of how an observer should solve this causal inference problem using the asynchrony between two cues and the reliability of the cues. This allows the model to make predictions abut the behavior of subjects performing a synchrony judgment task, predictive power that does not exist in other approaches, such as post hoc fitting of Gaussian curves to behavioral data. We tested the model predictions against the performance of 37 subjects performing a synchrony judgment task viewing audiovisual speech under a variety of manipulations, including varying asynchronies, intelligibility, and visual cue reliability. The causal inference model outperformed the Gaussian model across two experiments, providing a better fit to the behavioral data with fewer parameters. Because the causal inference model is derived from a principled understanding of the task, model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of stimulus and subject properties.

  5. Integrated decision-making about housing, energy and wellbeing: a qualitative system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmillan, Alexandra; Davies, Michael; Shrubsole, Clive; Luxford, Naomi; May, Neil; Chiu, Lai Fong; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Bobrova, Yekatherina; Chalabi, Zaid

    2016-03-08

    The UK government has an ambitious goal to reduce carbon emissions from the housing stock through energy efficiency improvements. This single policy goal is a strong driver for change in the housing system, but comes with positive and negative "unintended consequences" across a broad range of outcomes for health, equity and environmental sustainability. The resulting policies are also already experiencing under-performance through a failure to consider housing as a complex system. This research aimed to move from considering disparate objectives of housing policies in isolation to mapping the links between environmental, economic, social and health outcomes as a complex system. We aimed to support a broad range of housing policy stakeholders to improve their understanding of housing as a complex system through a collaborative learning process. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop a qualitative causal theory linking housing, energy and wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were followed by two interactive workshops to develop the model, involving representatives from national and local government, housing industries, non-government organisations, communities and academia. More than 50 stakeholders from 37 organisations participated. The process resulted in a shared understanding of wellbeing as it relates to housing; an agreed set of criteria against which to assess to future policy options; and a comprehensive set of causal loop diagrams describing the housing, energy and wellbeing system. The causal loop diagrams cover seven interconnected themes: community connection and quality of neighbourhoods; energy efficiency and climate change; fuel poverty and indoor temperature; household crowding; housing affordability; land ownership, value and development patterns; and ventilation and indoor air pollution. The collaborative learning process and the model have been useful for shifting the thinking of a wide range of housing stakeholders towards a more

  6. Efficient nonparametric estimation of causal mediation effects

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, K. C. G.; Imai, K.; Yam, S. C. P.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-01-01

    An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment effect into the natural direct and indirect effects. However, all of the existing mediation analysis methods rely on parametric modeling assumptions in one way or another, typically requiring researchers to specify multiple regression models involving the treat...

  7. Sex and Self-Control Theory: The Measures and Causal Model May Be Different

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, George E.; Tewksbury, Richard

    2006-01-01

    This study examines the distribution differences across sexes in key measures of self-control theory and differences in a causal model. Using cross-sectional data from juveniles ("n" = 1,500), the study shows mean-level differences in many of the self-control, risky behavior, and delinquency measures. Structural equation modeling…

  8. Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

  9. Non-Gaussian Methods for Causal Structure Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Shohei

    2018-05-22

    Causal structure learning is one of the most exciting new topics in the fields of machine learning and statistics. In many empirical sciences including prevention science, the causal mechanisms underlying various phenomena need to be studied. Nevertheless, in many cases, classical methods for causal structure learning are not capable of estimating the causal structure of variables. This is because it explicitly or implicitly assumes Gaussianity of data and typically utilizes only the covariance structure. In many applications, however, non-Gaussian data are often obtained, which means that more information may be contained in the data distribution than the covariance matrix is capable of containing. Thus, many new methods have recently been proposed for using the non-Gaussian structure of data and inferring the causal structure of variables. This paper introduces prevention scientists to such causal structure learning methods, particularly those based on the linear, non-Gaussian, acyclic model known as LiNGAM. These non-Gaussian data analysis tools can fully estimate the underlying causal structures of variables under assumptions even in the presence of unobserved common causes. This feature is in contrast to other approaches. A simulated example is also provided.

  10. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  11. Measures of Coupling between Neural Populations Based on Granger Causality Principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminski, Maciej; Brzezicka, Aneta; Kaminski, Jan; Blinowska, Katarzyna J

    2016-01-01

    This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality) principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a "weak node." Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF) supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

  12. The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-16

    and Baumrind (1993).” This, together with the steady influx of statisticians into the field, has left SEM re- searchers in a quandary about the...considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51 1173–1182. Baumrind , D. (1993). Specious causal attributions in social sciences: The

  13. Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

    2014-10-01

    This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  14. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik Hoxha

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

  15. Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Nyberg, Henri

    We explore the differences between the causal and noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) models in capturing the real activity-stock return-relationship. Unlike the conventional linear VAR model, the noncausal VAR model is capable of accommodating various nonlinear characteristics of the data....... In quarterly U.S. data, we find strong evidence in favor of noncausality, and the best causal and noncausal VAR models imply quite different dynamics. In particular, the linear VAR model appears to underestimate the importance of the stock return shock for the real activity, and the real activity shock...

  16. How multiple causes combine: independence constraints on causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljeholm, Mimi

    2015-01-01

    According to the causal power view, two core constraints-that causes occur independently (i.e., no confounding) and influence their effects independently-serve as boundary conditions for causal induction. This study investigated how violations of these constraints modulate uncertainty about the existence and strength of a causal relationship. Participants were presented with pairs of candidate causes that were either confounded or not, and that either interacted or exerted their influences independently. Consistent with the causal power view, uncertainty about the existence and strength of causal relationships was greater when causes were confounded or interacted than when unconfounded and acting independently. An elemental Bayesian causal model captured differences in uncertainty due to confounding but not those due to an interaction. Implications of distinct sources of uncertainty for the selection of contingency information and causal generalization are discussed.

  17. A Temporal-Causal Network Model for the Internal Processes of a Person with a Borderline Personality Disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoțoiu, Maria; Tavella, Federico; Treur, Jan

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a computational network model for a person with a Borderline Personality Disorder. It was designed according to a Network-Oriented Modeling approach as a temporal-causal network based on neuropsychological background knowledge. Some example simulations are discussed. The model

  18. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  19. Ab initio Algorithmic Causal Deconvolution of Intertwined Programs and Networks by Generative Mechanism

    KAUST Repository

    Zenil, Hector

    2018-02-18

    To extract and learn representations leading to generative mechanisms from data, especially without making arbitrary decisions and biased assumptions, is a central challenge in most areas of scientific research particularly in connection to current major limitations of influential topics and methods of machine and deep learning as they have often lost sight of the model component. Complex data is usually produced by interacting sources with different mechanisms. Here we introduce a parameter-free model-based approach, based upon the seminal concept of Algorithmic Probability, that decomposes an observation and signal into its most likely algorithmic generative mechanisms. Our methods use a causal calculus to infer model representations. We demonstrate the method ability to distinguish interacting mechanisms and deconvolve them, regardless of whether the objects produce strings, space-time evolution diagrams, images or networks. We numerically test and evaluate our method and find that it can disentangle observations from discrete dynamic systems, random and complex networks. We think that these causal inference techniques can contribute as key pieces of information for estimations of probability distributions complementing other more statistical-oriented techniques that otherwise lack model inference capabilities.

  20. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  1. The relationship of family characteristics and bipolar disorder using causal-pie models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y-C; Kao, C-F; Lu, M-K; Yang, Y-K; Liao, S-C; Jang, F-L; Chen, W J; Lu, R-B; Kuo, P-H

    2014-01-01

    Many family characteristics were reported to increase the risk of bipolar disorder (BPD). The development of BPD may be mediated through different pathways, involving diverse risk factor profiles. We evaluated the associations of family characteristics to build influential causal-pie models to estimate their contributions on the risk of developing BPD at the population level. We recruited 329 clinically diagnosed BPD patients and 202 healthy controls to collect information in parental psychopathology, parent-child relationship, and conflict within family. Other than logistic regression models, we applied causal-pie models to identify pathways involved with different family factors for BPD. The risk of BPD was significantly increased with parental depression, neurosis, anxiety, paternal substance use problems, and poor relationship with parents. Having a depressed mother further predicted early onset of BPD. Additionally, a greater risk for BPD was observed with higher numbers of paternal/maternal psychopathologies. Three significant risk profiles were identified for BPD, including paternal substance use problems (73.0%), maternal depression (17.6%), and through poor relationship with parents and conflict within the family (6.3%). Our findings demonstrate that different aspects of family characteristics elicit negative impacts on bipolar illness, which can be utilized to target specific factors to design and employ efficient intervention programs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. Model-based diagnosis through Structural Analysis and Causal Computation for automotive Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polverino, Pierpaolo; Frisk, Erik; Jung, Daniel; Krysander, Mattias; Pianese, Cesare

    2017-07-01

    The present paper proposes an advanced approach for Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) systems fault detection and isolation through a model-based diagnostic algorithm. The considered algorithm is developed upon a lumped parameter model simulating a whole PEMFC system oriented towards automotive applications. This model is inspired by other models available in the literature, with further attention to stack thermal dynamics and water management. The developed model is analysed by means of Structural Analysis, to identify the correlations among involved physical variables, defined equations and a set of faults which may occur in the system (related to both auxiliary components malfunctions and stack degradation phenomena). Residual generators are designed by means of Causal Computation analysis and the maximum theoretical fault isolability, achievable with a minimal number of installed sensors, is investigated. The achieved results proved the capability of the algorithm to theoretically detect and isolate almost all faults with the only use of stack voltage and temperature sensors, with significant advantages from an industrial point of view. The effective fault isolability is proved through fault simulations at a specific fault magnitude with an advanced residual evaluation technique, to consider quantitative residual deviations from normal conditions and achieve univocal fault isolation.

  3. Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

    2018-03-01

    Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

  4. Corporate Governance and Financial Performance Nexus: Any Bidirectional Causality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alley Ibrahim S.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Most studies on corporate governance recognize endogeneity in the nexus between corporate governance and financial performance. Little attention has, however, been paid to the direction of causality between the two phenomena, and hence the Vector Error Correction (VEC model, which allows for endogenous determination of the direction of causality, has not been widely employed. This study fills that gap by estimating the nexus and the direction of causality using the VEC model to analyze panel data on selected listed firms in Nigeria. The results agree with the findings of most previous studies that corporate governance significantly affects financial performance. Board skills, board composition and management skills enhanced financial performance indicators – return on equity (ROE, return on asset (ROA and net profit margin (NPM; in many occasions, significantly. Board size and audit committee size did not, and can actually undermine financial performance. More importantly, financial performance did not significantly affect corporate governance. On the basis of the lag structure of the VEC model, this study affirms unidirectional causality in the nexus, running from corporate governance to financial performance, nullifying the hypothesis of bidirectional causality in the nexus.

  5. Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciarreta, A.; Zarraga, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies recent panel methodology to investigate the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP for a set of 12 European countries using annual data for the period 1970-2007. The sample countries have moved faster than other neighboring countries towards the creation of a single electricity market over the past 30 years. Energy prices are also included in the study due to their important role in affecting the above variables, thus avoiding the problem of omitted variable bias. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a trivariate VECM estimated by system GMM. The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three series and a negative short-run and strong causality from electricity consumption to GDP. As expected, there is bidirectional causality between energy prices and GDP and weaker evidence between electricity consumption and energy prices. These results support the policies implemented towards the creation of a common European electricity market.

  6. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups – What do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    York eHagmayer

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive psychological research focusses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analysed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

  7. Programs as Causal Models: Speculations on Mental Programs and Mental Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

    2013-01-01

    Judea Pearl has argued that counterfactuals and causality are central to intelligence, whether natural or artificial, and has helped create a rich mathematical and computational framework for formally analyzing causality. Here, we draw out connections between these notions and various current issues in cognitive science, including the nature of…

  8. Causal approach to (2+1)-dimensional Quantum Electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharf, G.; Wreszinski, W.F.; Pimentel, B.M.; Tomazelli, J.L.

    1993-05-01

    It is shown that the causal approach to (2+1)-dimensional quantum electrodynamics yields a well-defined perturbative theory. In particular, and in contrast to renormalized perturbative quantum field theory, it is free of any ambiguities and ascribes a nonzero value to the dynamically generated, nonperturbative photon mass. (author). 12 refs

  9. The impact of school leadership on school level factors: validation of a causal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krüger, M.L.; Witziers, B.; Sleegers, P.

    2007-01-01

    This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the antecedents and effects of educational leadership, and of the influence of the principal's leadership on intervening and outcome variables. A path analysis was conducted to test and validate a causal model. The results show no direct or

  10. Transcribing the balanced scorecard into system dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to show how a System Dynamics Modelling approach can be integrated into the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for a case company with special focus on the handling of causality in a dynamic perspective. The BSC model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non...... the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Including dynamic aspects of BSCs into the discussion is only in its infancy, so the aim of our work is also to contribute to both scholars’ and practitioners’ general understanding of how such delayed dynamic effects propagate through system...

  11. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics a superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    CERN Document Server

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly non-causal processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the non-causal. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That

  12. Futures Business Models for an IoT Enabled Healthcare Sector: A Causal Layered Analysis Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Julius Francis Gomes; Sara Moqaddemerad

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To facilitate futures business research by proposing a novel way to combine business models as a conceptual tool with futures research techniques. Design: A futures perspective is adopted to foresight business models of the Internet of Things (IoT) enabled healthcare sector by using business models as a futures business research tool. In doing so, business models is coupled with one of the most prominent foresight methodologies, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Qualitative analysis...

  13. CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A GRAPHICAL HIERARCHY OF INTERVENTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpitser, Ilya; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen

    2016-12-01

    Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated effects may not always be identified even in data where treatment assignment is known and under investigator control, or may be identified under one causal model but not another. Increasingly complex effects of interest, coupled with a diversity of causal models in use resulted in a fragmented view of identification. This fragmentation makes it unnecessarily difficult to determine if a given parameter is identified (and in what model), and what assumptions must hold for this to be the case. This, in turn, complicates the development of estimation theory and sensitivity analysis procedures. In this paper, we give a unifying view of a large class of causal effects of interest, including novel effects not previously considered, in terms of a hierarchy of interventions, and show that identification theory for this large class reduces to an identification theory of random variables under interventions from this hierarchy. Moreover, we show that one type of intervention in the hierarchy is naturally associated with queries identified under the Finest Fully Randomized Causally Interpretable Structure Tree Graph (FFRCISTG) model of Robins (via the extended g-formula), and another is naturally associated with queries identified under the Non-Parametric Structural Equation Model with Independent Errors (NPSEM-IE) of Pearl, via a more general functional we call the edge g-formula. Our results motivate the study of estimation theory for the edge g-formula, since we show it arises both in mediation analysis, and in settings where treatment assignment has unobserved causes, such as models associated with Pearl's front-door criterion.

  14. Causal Relationship Model of the Information and Communication Technology Skill Affect the Technology Acceptance Process in the 21ST Century for Undergraduate Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanyatorn Amornkitpinyo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to design a framework for a causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process (TAP for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. This research uses correlational analysis. A consideration of the research methodology is divided into two sections. The first section involves a synthesis concept framework for process acceptance of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. The second section proposes the design concept framework of the model. The research findings are as follows: 1 The exogenous latent variables included in the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century are basic ICT skills and self-efficacy. 2 The mediating latent variables of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century are from the TAM Model, these includes three components: 1 perceived usefulness, 2 perceived ease of use and 3 attitudes. 3 The outcome latent variable of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century is behavioural intention.

  15. Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

    2014-07-01

    Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

    2014-09-08

    Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

  17. DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan K Lhachimi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA. A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment, we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based

  18. Parental causal attributions and emotions in daily learning situations with the child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enlund, Emmi; Aunola, Kaisa; Tolvanen, Asko; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

    2015-08-01

    This study investigated the dynamics between the causal attributions parents reported daily for their children's success in learning situations and parental positive emotions. The sample consisted of 159 mothers and 147 fathers of 162 first graders (83 girls, 79 boys; aged from 6 to 7 years, M = 7.5 years, SD = 3.6 months). Parents filled in a structured diary questionnaire concerning their causal attributions and emotions over 7 successive days in the fall semester and again over 7 successive days in the spring semester. Multilevel analyses showed that both parental causal attributions and positive emotions varied more within parents (between days over the week) than between parents. Furthermore, mothers' positive emotions on a certain day predicted their causal attributions on that same day rather than vice versa. The higher the level of positive emotions parents reported in a specific day, the more they used effort and ability as causal attributions for their offspring's success on that same day. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Measures of coupling between neural populations based on Granger causality principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Kaminski

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a weak node. Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

  20. Hindsight Bias Doesn't Always Come Easy: Causal Models, Cognitive Effort, and Creeping Determinism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestler, Steffen; Blank, Hartmut; von Collani, Gernot

    2008-01-01

    Creeping determinism, a form of hindsight bias, refers to people's hindsight perceptions of events as being determined or inevitable. This article proposes, on the basis of a causal-model theory of creeping determinism, that the underlying processes are effortful, and hence creeping determinism should disappear when individuals lack the cognitive…

  1. Explaining through causal mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, Robbert; Dupuis, Johann; Wellstead, Adam

    2017-01-01

    This paper synthesizes and builds on recent critiques of the resilience literature; namely that the field has largely been unsuccessful in capturing the complexity of governance processes, in particular cause–effects relationships. We demonstrate that absence of a causal model is reflected in the

  2. Causal modeling of secondary science students' intentions to enroll in physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

    The purpose of this study was to explore the utility of the theory of planned behavior model developed by social psychologists for understanding and predicting the behavioral intentions of secondary science students regarding enrolling in physics. In particular, the study used a three-stage causal model to investigate the links from external variables to behavioral, normative, and control beliefs; from beliefs to attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control; and from attitudes, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control to behavioral intentions. The causal modeling method was employed to verify the underlying causes of secondary science students' interest in enrolling physics as predicted in the theory of planned behavior. Data were collected from secondary science students (N = 264) residing in a central Texas city who were enrolled in earth science (8th grade), biology (9th grade), physical science (10th grade), or chemistry (11th grade) courses. Cause-and-effect relationships were analyzed using path analysis to test the direct effects of model variables specified in the theory of planned behavior. Results of this study indicated that students' intention to enroll in a high school physics course was determined by their attitude toward enrollment and their degree of perceived behavioral control. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control were, in turn, formed as a result of specific beliefs that students held about enrolling in physics. Grade level and career goals were found to be instrumental in shaping students' attitude. Immediate family members were identified as major referents in the social support system for enrolling in physics. Course and extracurricular conflicts and the fear of failure were shown to be the primary beliefs obstructing students' perception of control over physics enrollment. Specific recommendations are offered to researchers and practitioners for strengthening secondary school students

  3. Relating the thermodynamic arrow of time to the causal arrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E; Janzing, Dominik

    2008-01-01

    Consider a Hamiltonian system that consists of a slow subsystem S and a fast subsystem F. The autonomous dynamics of S is driven by an effective Hamiltonian, but its thermodynamics is unexpected. We show that a well-defined thermodynamic arrow of time (second law) emerges for S whenever there is a well-defined causal arrow from S to F and the back-action is negligible. This is because the back-action of F on S is described by a non-globally Hamiltonian Born–Oppenheimer term that violates the Liouville theorem, and makes the second law inapplicable to S. If S and F are mixing, under the causal arrow condition they are described by microcanonical distributions P(S) and P(S|F). Their structure supports a causal inference principle proposed recently in machine learning

  4. Causality re-established.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

    2018-07-13

    Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  5. Modelling the effect of religion on human empathy based on an adaptive temporal–causal network model

    OpenAIRE

    van Ments, Laila; Roelofsma, Peter; Treur, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Background Religion is a central aspect of many individuals’ lives around the world, and its influence on human behaviour has been extensively studied from many different perspectives. Methods The current study integrates a number of these perspectives into one adaptive temporal–causal network model describing the mental states involved, their mutual relations, and the adaptation of some of these relations over time due to learning. Results By first developing a conceptual representation of a...

  6. Further properties of causal relationship: causal structure stability, new criteria for isocausality and counterexamples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Sanchez, Miguel

    2005-01-01

    Recently (Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla 2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64) the concept of causal mapping between spacetimes, essentially equivalent in this context to the chronological map defined in abstract chronological spaces, and the related notion of causal structure, have been introduced as new tools to study causality in Lorentzian geometry. In the present paper, these tools are further developed in several directions such as (i) causal mappings-and, thus, abstract chronological ones-do not preserve two levels of the standard hierarchy of causality conditions (however, they preserve the remaining levels as shown in the above reference), (ii) even though global hyperbolicity is a stable property (in the set of all time-oriented Lorentzian metrics on a fixed manifold), the causal structure of a globally hyperbolic spacetime can be unstable against perturbations; in fact, we show that the causal structures of Minkowski and Einstein static spacetimes remain stable, whereas that of de Sitter becomes unstable, (iii) general criteria allow us to discriminate different causal structures in some general spacetimes (e.g. globally hyperbolic, stationary standard); in particular, there are infinitely many different globally hyperbolic causal structures (and thus, different conformal ones) on R 2 (iv) plane waves with the same number of positive eigenvalues in the frequency matrix share the same causal structure and, thus, they have equal causal extensions and causal boundaries

  7. Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

    2017-07-01

    Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

  8. The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steen Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

  9. Using causal loop diagrams for the initialization of stakeholder engagement in soil salinity management in agricultural watersheds in developing countries: a case study in the Rechna Doab watershed, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Halbe, Johannes; Prasher, Shiv

    2015-04-01

    Over the course of the last twenty years, participatory modeling has increasingly been advocated as an integral component of integrated, adaptive, and collaborative water resources management. However, issues of high cost, time, and expertise are significant hurdles to the widespread adoption of participatory modeling in many developing countries. In this study, a step-wise method to initialize the involvement of key stakeholders in the development of qualitative system dynamics models (i.e. causal loop diagrams) is presented. The proposed approach is designed to overcome the challenges of low expertise, time and financial resources that have hampered previous participatory modeling efforts in developing countries. The methodological framework was applied in a case study of soil salinity management in the Rechna Doab region of Pakistan, with a focus on the application of qualitative modeling through stakeholder-built causal loop diagrams to address soil salinity problems in the basin. Individual causal loop diagrams were developed by key stakeholder groups, following which an overall group causal loop diagram of the entire system was built based on the individual causal loop diagrams to form a holistic qualitative model of the whole system. The case study demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed approach, based on using causal loop diagrams in initiating stakeholder involvement in the participatory model building process. In addition, the results point to social-economic aspects of soil salinity that have not been considered by other modeling studies to date. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Epidemiological causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

  11. Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

  12. State vector reduction - 2: Elements of physical reality, nonlocality and stochasticity in relativistic dynamical reduction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, G.C.; Pearle, P.

    1991-02-01

    The problem of getting a relativistic generalization of the CSL dynamical reduction model, which has been presented in part I, is discussed. In so doing we have the opportunity to introduce the idea of a stochastically invariant theory. The theoretical model we present, that satisfies this kind of invariance requirement, offers us the possibility to reconsider, from a new point of view, some conceptually relevant issues such as nonlocality, the legitimacy of attributing elements of physical reality to physical systems and the problem of establishing causal relations between physical events. (author). Refs, 3 figs

  13. Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

    2015-01-01

    Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

  14. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

  15. Conditional Granger Causality of Diffusion Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wahl, B.; Feudel, U.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, M.; Peinke, J.; Freund, J.A.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 90, č. 10 (2017), č. článku 197. ISSN 1434-6028 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Granger causality * stochastic process * diffusion process * nonlinear dynamical systems Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8) Impact factor: 1.461, year: 2016

  16. Do causal concentration-response functions exist? A critical review of associational and causal relations between fine particulate matter and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2017-08-01

    Concentration-response (C-R) functions relating concentrations of pollutants in ambient air to mortality risks or other adverse health effects provide the basis for many public health risk assessments, benefits estimates for clean air regulations, and recommendations for revisions to existing air quality standards. The assumption that C-R functions relating levels of exposure and levels of response estimated from historical data usefully predict how future changes in concentrations would change risks has seldom been carefully tested. This paper critically reviews literature on C-R functions for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality risks. We find that most of them describe historical associations rather than valid causal models for predicting effects of interventions that change concentrations. The few papers that explicitly attempt to model causality rely on unverified modeling assumptions, casting doubt on their predictions about effects of interventions. A large literature on modern causal inference algorithms for observational data has been little used in C-R modeling. Applying these methods to publicly available data from Boston and the South Coast Air Quality Management District around Los Angeles shows that C-R functions estimated for one do not hold for the other. Changes in month-specific PM2.5 concentrations from one year to the next do not help to predict corresponding changes in average elderly mortality rates in either location. Thus, the assumption that estimated C-R relations predict effects of pollution-reducing interventions may not be true. Better causal modeling methods are needed to better predict how reducing air pollution would affect public health.

  17. Large-scale Granger causality analysis on resting-state functional MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Adora M.; Abidin, Anas Zainul; Leistritz, Lutz; Wismüller, Axel

    2016-03-01

    We demonstrate an approach to measure the information flow between each pair of time series in resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) data of the human brain and subsequently recover its underlying network structure. By integrating dimensionality reduction into predictive time series modeling, large-scale Granger Causality (lsGC) analysis method can reveal directed information flow suggestive of causal influence at an individual voxel level, unlike other multivariate approaches. This method quantifies the influence each voxel time series has on every other voxel time series in a multivariate sense and hence contains information about the underlying dynamics of the whole system, which can be used to reveal functionally connected networks within the brain. To identify such networks, we perform non-metric network clustering, such as accomplished by the Louvain method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to recover the motor and visual cortex from resting state human brain fMRI data and compare it with the network recovered from a visuomotor stimulation experiment, where the similarity is measured by the Dice Coefficient (DC). The best DC obtained was 0.59 implying a strong agreement between the two networks. In addition, we thoroughly study the effect of dimensionality reduction in lsGC analysis on network recovery. We conclude that our approach is capable of detecting causal influence between time series in a multivariate sense, which can be used to segment functionally connected networks in the resting-state fMRI.

  18. Partial Granger causality--eliminating exogenous inputs and latent variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shuixia; Seth, Anil K; Kendrick, Keith M; Zhou, Cong; Feng, Jianfeng

    2008-07-15

    Attempts to identify causal interactions in multivariable biological time series (e.g., gene data, protein data, physiological data) can be undermined by the confounding influence of environmental (exogenous) inputs. Compounding this problem, we are commonly only able to record a subset of all related variables in a system. These recorded variables are likely to be influenced by unrecorded (latent) variables. To address this problem, we introduce a novel variant of a widely used statistical measure of causality--Granger causality--that is inspired by the definition of partial correlation. Our 'partial Granger causality' measure is extensively tested with toy models, both linear and nonlinear, and is applied to experimental data: in vivo multielectrode array (MEA) local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from the inferotemporal cortex of sheep. Our results demonstrate that partial Granger causality can reveal the underlying interactions among elements in a network in the presence of exogenous inputs and latent variables in many cases where the existing conditional Granger causality fails.

  19. Causal Factors for The Adoption Innovation Teacher’s Tv for Teachersand Educational Personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanadol Phuseerit

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this research were: to 1 study factors for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for Teachers and educational personnel 2 develop and examine consideration of the causal factors for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and educational personnel model, 3 evaluate and approve causal factors for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for Teachers and educational personnel by the specialists. The method: Step Were 1 Review the literature of the principles, theories and research on the causal factors for the adoption of innovation in education, also study teachers’ adoption of innovation teacher’s TV and causal factors for adoption of innovation teacher’s TV. Further were, analysis and content to collect data on the volume of queries. Collected which was from in-depth interviews. through focus groups, teachers and educational personnel. Identify factors that are associated with the adoption of innovation teacher’s TV. 2 to develop causal factors for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and educational personnel model. 3 Check the consistency of the causal factors for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and educational personnel model by experts 4 evaluate and approve causal factors to the adoption innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and educational personnel model from the specialists. The sample were 11 experts in innovation and educational technology. The sample were 450 people whith were Analyzed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis: CFA of Structural Equation Modeling: SEM of causal factor for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and education personnel model. The instrument used in this study were: 1 a questionnaire causal factor for the adoption of the innovation teacher’s TV for teachers and education personnel, 2 semi-structured questionnaire for interviewing teachers and education personnel, 3 open ended question

  20. P3-10: Crossmodal Perceptual Grouping Modulates Subjective Causality between Action and Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahiro Kawabe

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Agents have to determine which external events their action has causally produced. A sensation of causal relation between action and outcome is called subjective causality. Subjective causality has been linked to the comparator model. This model assumes that the brain compares an internal prediction for action outcome with an actual sensory outcome, distinguishing between self and externally produced outcomes depending on spatiotemporal congruency. However, recent studies have expressed some doubt about the idea that subjective causality arises depending solely on the spatiotemporal congruency, suggesting instead that other perceptual/cognitive factors play a critical role in determining subjective causality. We hypothesized that crossmodal grouping between action and outcome contributed to subjective causality. Crossmodal temporal grouping is an essential factor for crossmodal simultaneity judgments with ungrouped crossmodal signals likely to be judged as non-simultaneous. We predicted that subjective causality would decrease when an agent's action was not temporally grouped with action outcome. In the experiment, observers were asked to press a key in order to trigger a display change with some temporal delay. To disrupt temporal grouping between action and outcome, a task-irrelevant visual flash or tone was sometimes presented synchronously with the button press and/or the display change. Subjective causality was decreased when the flash or the tone was coincided with the button press. This demonstrates that perceptual grouping has a key role in determination of subjective causality, a result that is not accounted for by the standard comparator model.

  1. Causality and matter propagation in 3D spin foam quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oriti, Daniele; Tlas, Tamer

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we tackle the issue of causality in quantum gravity, in the context of 3d spin foam models. We identify the correct procedure for implementing the causality/orientation dependence restriction that reduces the path integral for BF theory to that of quantum gravity in first order form. We construct explicitly the resulting causal spin foam model. We then add matter degrees of freedom to it and construct a causal spin foam model for 3d quantum gravity coupled to matter fields. Finally, we show that the corresponding spin foam amplitudes admit a natural approximation as the Feynman amplitudes of a noncommutative quantum field theory, with the appropriate Feynman propagators weighting the lines of propagation, and that this effective field theory reduces to the usual quantum field theory in flat space in the no-gravity limit

  2. A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

  3. Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebiye Yamak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

  4. Revisiting Aristotle's causality: model for development in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, the development equation must be balanced. Aristotle‟s theory of causality balances the equation. Since Aristotle has no theory of development therefore every individual, nation or industry in pursuit of development should seek to drive economic growth and human capital development together rather than focus on ...

  5. Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2014-01-01

    We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention...... structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

  6. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  7. Spatial hypersurfaces in causal set cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Major, Seth A; Rideout, David; Surya, Sumati

    2006-01-01

    Within the causal set approach to quantum gravity, a discrete analogue of a spacelike region is a set of unrelated elements, or an antichain. In the continuum approximation of the theory, a moment-of-time hypersurface is well represented by an inextendible antichain. We construct a richer structure corresponding to a thickening of this antichain containing non-trivial geometric and topological information. We find that covariant observables can be associated with such thickened antichains and transitions between them, in classical sequential growth models of causal sets. This construction highlights the difference between the covariant measure on causal set cosmology and the standard sum-over-histories approach: the measure is assigned to completed histories rather than to histories on a restricted spacetime region. The resulting re-phrasing of the sum-over-histories may be fruitful in other approaches to quantum gravity

  8. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using a system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, J. K.; Yoon, T. S.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of organizational and human factors in the nuclear power plant safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach such as ergonomics and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is socio-psychology one. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and increased nuclear safety However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions between factors or variables in NPP's. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show causal relations between factors and quantify organizational and human factors, has been developed. Operating variables such as degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plants in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get an insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side

  9. The causal dynamics between coal consumption and growth: Evidence from emerging market economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James E.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 15 emerging market economies within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1980-2006. The heterogeneous panel cointegration results indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, coal consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. While in the long-run both real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force have a significant positive impact on real GDP, coal consumption has a significant negative impact. The panel causality tests show bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth in both the short- and long-run. (author)

  10. SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING AND SIMULATION FOR CULTIVATION OF FOREST LAND: CASE STUDY PERUM PERHUTANI, CENTRAL JAVA, INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candra Musi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The deforestation and forest degradation rates have a propensity to rise every year. The problems in pertaining with the issue is not solely preoccupied on the ecological concern but also to the socio-economic impacts. The complexity of forest management is a serious barrier in determining a better management policy. Modeling system is a simple method to describe the real situation in nature. A qualitative approach is used to identify the relationship between the dynamics of important behaviors. The causal relationships among the factors were investigated by using causal loop diagram. The model conceptualization was constructed by using a stock-flow diagram. The result of the simulation model was used to determine the alternative policies for better forest management. The results indicated that the tenant welfare would be enhanced through the provision of production-sharing by 25% and the Corporate Social Responsibility by 2%, which yields a reduction in cultivated area of ​​916.61 ha within a period of 67 years or a decline of land area by an average of 13.68 ha per year.

  11. Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omri, Anis; Kahouli, Bassem

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using dynamic panel data models in simultaneous-equations for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1990–2011 inclusive. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate this interrelationship for a number of sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. In the empirical part, we draw on the growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of capital stock, labor force and inflation, with foreign direct investment and energy. Generally, we show mixed results about the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth. - Highlights: • We examine the energy–FDI–growth nexus for a global panel of 65 countries. • Dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models are used to address this issue. • We also investigate this nexus for three sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. • We show mixed results about the interrelationship between the three variables

  12. Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dellarosa Cummins

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

  13. Agency, time and causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eWidlok

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

  14. Testing for Granger Causality in the Frequency Domain: A Phase Resampling Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siwei; Molenaar, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This article introduces phase resampling, an existing but rarely used surrogate data method for making statistical inferences of Granger causality in frequency domain time series analysis. Granger causality testing is essential for establishing causal relations among variables in multivariate dynamic processes. However, testing for Granger causality in the frequency domain is challenging due to the nonlinear relation between frequency domain measures (e.g., partial directed coherence, generalized partial directed coherence) and time domain data. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that phase resampling is a general and robust method for making statistical inferences even with short time series. With Gaussian data, phase resampling yields satisfactory type I and type II error rates in all but one condition we examine: when a small effect size is combined with an insufficient number of data points. Violations of normality lead to slightly higher error rates but are mostly within acceptable ranges. We illustrate the utility of phase resampling with two empirical examples involving multivariate electroencephalography (EEG) and skin conductance data.

  15. Causal boundary for strongly causal spacetimes: Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabados, L.B.

    1989-01-01

    In a previous paper an analysis of the general structure of the causal boundary constructions and a new explicit identification rule, built up from elementary TIP-TIF gluings, were presented. In the present paper we complete our identification by incorporating TIP-TIP and TIF-TIF gluings as well. An asymptotic causality condition is found which, for physically important cases, ensures the uniqueness of the endpoints of the non-spacelike curves in the completed spacetime. (author)

  16. EMG-Torque Dynamics Change With Contraction Bandwidth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golkar, Mahsa A; Jalaleddini, Kian; Kearney, Robert E

    2018-04-01

    An accurate model for ElectroMyoGram (EMG)-torque dynamics has many uses. One of its applications which has gained high attention among researchers is its use, in estimating the muscle contraction level for the efficient control of prosthesis. In this paper, the dynamic relationship between the surface EMG and torque during isometric contractions at the human ankle was studied using system identification techniques. Subjects voluntarily modulated their ankle torque in dorsiflexion direction, by activating their tibialis anterior muscle, while tracking a pseudo-random binary sequence in a torque matching task. The effects of contraction bandwidth, described by torque spectrum, on EMG-torque dynamics were evaluated by varying the visual command switching time. Nonparametric impulse response functions (IRF) were estimated between the processed surface EMG and torque. It was demonstrated that: 1) at low contraction bandwidths, the identified IRFs had unphysiological anticipatory (i.e., non-causal) components, whose amplitude decreased as the contraction bandwidth increased. We hypothesized that this non-causal behavior arose, because the EMG input contained a component due to feedback from the output torque, i.e., it was recorded from within a closed-loop. Vision was not the feedback source since the non-causal behavior persisted when visual feedback was removed. Repeating the identification using a nonparametric closed-loop identification algorithm yielded causal IRFs at all bandwidths, supporting this hypothesis. 2) EMG-torque dynamics became faster and the bandwidth of system increased as contraction modulation rate increased. Thus, accurate prediction of torque from EMG signals must take into account the contraction bandwidth sensitivity of this system.

  17. Causal role of thalamic interneurons on brain state transitions: a study using a neural mass model implementing synaptic kinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basabdatta Sen Bhattacharya

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Experimental studies on the Lateral Geniculate Nucleus (LGN of mammals and rodents show that the inhibitory interneurons (IN receive around 47.1% of their afferents from the retinal spiking neurons, and constitute around 20 - 25% of the LGN cell population. However, there is a definite gap in knowledge about the role and impact of IN on thalamocortical dynamics in both experimental and model-based research. We use a neural mass computational model of the LGN with three neural populations viz. IN, thalamocortical relay (TCR, thalamic reticular nucleus (TRN, to study the causality of IN on LGN oscillations and state-transitions. The synaptic information transmission in the model is implemented with kinetic modelling, facilitating the linking of low-level cellular attributes with high-level population dynamics. The model is parameterised and tuned to simulate both Local Field Potential (LFP of LGN and electroencephalogram (EEG of visual cortex in an awake resting state with eyes closed and dominant frequency within the alpha (8-13 Hz band. The results show that: First, the response of the TRN is suppressed in the presence of IN in the circuit; disconnecting the IN from the circuit effects a dramatic change in the model output, displaying high amplitude synchronous oscillations within the alpha band in both TCR and TRN. These observations conform to experimental reports implicating the IN as the primary inhibitory modulator of LGN dynamics in a cognitive state, and that reduced cognition is achieved by suppressing the TRN response. Second, the model validates steady state visually evoked potential response in humans corresponding to periodic input stimuli; however, when the IN is disconnected from the circuit, the output power spectra do not reflect the input frequency. This agrees with experimental reports underpinning the role of IN in efficient retino-geniculate information transmission. Third, a smooth transition from alpha to theta band is

  18. Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, David C.; Shweyk, Kamal M.; Brown, Frank; Shah, Gautam

    2014-01-01

    As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements

  19. A diagnostic expert system for a boiling water reactor using a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonoda, Y.; Kanemoto, S.; Imaruoka, H.

    1990-01-01

    A diagnostic expert system for abnormal disturbances in a BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) plant has been developed. The peculiar feature of this system is a diagnostic method which combines artificial intelligence technique with numerical analysis technique. The system has three diagnostic functions, 1) identification of anomaly position (device or sensor), 2) identification of anomaly mode and 3) identification of anomaly cause. Function 1) is implemented as follows. First, a hypothesis about anomaly propagation paths is built up by qualitative reasoning, using knowledge of causal relations among observed signals. Next, the abnormal device or sensor is found by applying model reference method and fuzzy set theory to test the hypothesis, using knowledge of plant structure and function, heuristic strategy of diagnosis and module type dynamic simulator. This simulator is composed of basic transfer function modules. The simulation model for the testing region is built up automatically, according to the requirement from the diagnostic task. Function 2) means identification of dynamic characteristics for an anomaly. It is realized by tuning model parameters so as to reproduce the abnormal signal behavior using the non-linear programing method. Function 3) derives probable anomaly causes from heuristic rules between anomaly mode and cause. A basic plant dynamic model was built up and adjusted to dynamic characteristics for one BWR plant (1100MWe). In order to verify the diagnostic functions of this system, data for several abnormal events was compiled by modifying this model. The diagnostic functions were proved useful, through the simulated abnormal data

  20. The Relationship between Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate. A Ardl Causality Analysis for the Case Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between the shadow economy (SE and unemployment rates (both registered and ILO for the case of Romania using Pesaran et al.(2001 bounds tests approach for cointegration. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 2000-2010. The size of Romanian shadow economy is estimated using the currency demand approach based on VECM models, stating that its size is decreasing over the analyzed period, from 36.5% at the end of 2000 to about 31.5% of real GDP at the middle of 2010. To investigate the long-run causal linkages and short-run dynamics between shadow economy and unemployment rate, ARDL cointegration approach is applied. Cointegration test results shows that in short-run both ILO and registered unemployment rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the size of the shadow economy, while in the long-run the unemployment rates have a positive effect on shadow economy. The ARDL causality results revealed the existence of a long-run unidirectional causality that runs from unemployment rates (registered or ILO to shadow economy. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the both causal relationships.

  1. QED representation for the net of causal loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciolli, Fabio; Ruzzi, Giuseppe; Vasselli, Ezio

    2015-06-01

    The present work tackles the existence of local gauge symmetries in the setting of Algebraic Quantum Field Theory (AQFT). The net of causal loops, previously introduced by the authors, is a model independent construction of a covariant net of local C*-algebras on any 4-dimensional globally hyperbolic space-time, aimed to capture structural properties of any reasonable quantum gauge theory. Representations of this net can be described by causal and covariant connection systems, and local gauge transformations arise as maps between equivalent connection systems. The present paper completes these abstract results, realizing QED as a representation of the net of causal loops in Minkowski space-time. More precisely, we map the quantum electromagnetic field Fμν, not free in general, into a representation of the net of causal loops and show that the corresponding connection system and the local gauge transformations find a counterpart in terms of Fμν.

  2. Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

  3. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-07-26

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  4. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faming Liang

    Full Text Available Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD, to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i (Global association test Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii (Causal variant detection Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  5. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Xiong, Momiao

    2013-01-01

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  6. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CO2 EMISSIONS: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaido Dritsaki

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Energy plays an important role in economic development worldwide. The increase of energy consumption showed that CO2 emissions in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, and these lead many scientists to push governments of the developing countries to take action for the formulation of environmental policies. Many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions mainly on developing countries. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions for three countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Portugal covering the annual period 1960-2009. The FMOLS and DOLS are then used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. The findings of this study reveal that there is a short-run bilateral causal link between the examined variables. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to energy consumption (EC, and economic growth (GDP and a bilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This indicates that energy is a force for economic growth both in short and long run as it is driven from economic growth. Moreover, to face the heterogeneity on the three countries of Southern Europe we use the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods.

  7. PATH ANALYSIS WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS : EFFECT ANALYSIS OF FULLY RECURSIVE CAUSAL SYSTEMS OF CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuoki, Eshima; Minoru, Tabata; Geng, Zhi; Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University; Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses path analysis of categorical variables with logistic regression models. The total, direct and indirect effects in fully recursive causal systems are considered by using model parameters. These effects can be explained in terms of log odds ratios, uncertainty differences, and an inner product of explanatory variables and a response variable. A study on food choice of alligators as a numerical exampleis reanalysed to illustrate the present approach.

  8. A framework for assessing frequency domain causality in physiological time series with instantaneous effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Erla, Silvia; Porta, Alberto; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2013-08-28

    We present an approach for the quantification of directional relations in multiple time series exhibiting significant zero-lag interactions. To overcome the limitations of the traditional multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) modelling of multiple series, we introduce an extended MVAR (eMVAR) framework allowing either exclusive consideration of time-lagged effects according to the classic notion of Granger causality, or consideration of combined instantaneous and lagged effects according to an extended causality definition. The spectral representation of the eMVAR model is exploited to derive novel frequency domain causality measures that generalize to the case of instantaneous effects the known directed coherence (DC) and partial DC measures. The new measures are illustrated in theoretical examples showing that they reduce to the known measures in the absence of instantaneous causality, and describe peculiar aspects of directional interaction among multiple series when instantaneous causality is non-negligible. Then, the issue of estimating eMVAR models from time-series data is faced, proposing two approaches for model identification and discussing problems related to the underlying model assumptions. Finally, applications of the framework on cardiovascular variability series and multichannel EEG recordings are presented, showing how it allows one to highlight patterns of frequency domain causality consistent with well-interpretable physiological interaction mechanisms.

  9. Causal structure of analogue spacetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barcelo, Carlos; Liberati, Stefano; Sonego, Sebastiano; Visser, Matt

    2004-01-01

    The so-called 'analogue models of general relativity' provide a number of specific physical systems, well outside the traditional realm of general relativity, that nevertheless are well-described by the differential geometry of curved spacetime. Specifically, the propagation of perturbations in these condensed matter systems is described by 'effective metrics' that carry with them notions of 'causal structure' as determined by an exchange of quasi-particles. These quasi-particle-induced causal structures serve as specific examples of what can be done in the presence of a Lorentzian metric without having recourse to the Einstein equations of general relativity. (After all, the underlying analogue model is governed by its own specific physics, not necessarily by the Einstein equations.) In this paper we take a careful look at what can be said about the causal structure of analogue spacetimes, focusing on those containing quasi-particle horizons, both with a view to seeing what is different from standard general relativity, and what the similarities might be. For definiteness, and because the physics is particularly simple to understand, we will phrase much of the discussion in terms of acoustic disturbances in moving fluids, where the underlying physics is ordinary fluid mechanics, governed by the equations of traditional hydrodynamics, and the relevant quasi-particles are the phonons. It must however be emphasized that this choice of example is only for the sake of pedagogical simplicity and that our considerations apply generically to wide classes of analogue spacetimes

  10. Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslani, Alireza; Helo, Petri; Naaranoja, Marja

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A system dynamics model for evaluating renewable energy policies on dependency is proposed. • The model considers the role of diversification on dependency and security of energy supply in Finland. • Dependency on imported sources will decrease depends on the defined scenarios in Finland. - Abstract: Objective: We discuss the role of diversification on dependency and security of energy supply. A system dynamics model with especial focus on the role of renewable energy resources (as a portfolio) on Finland’s energy dependency is developed. The purpose is also to cover a part of research gap exists in the system dynamics modeling of energy security investigations. Methods: A causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model evaluate Finnish scenarios of renewable energy policies. The analysis describes the relationship between dynamic factors such as RE encouragement packages, dependency, and energy demand. Results: A causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model evaluate three different Finnish scenarios of renewable energy policies by 2020. Conclusion: Analysis shows that despite 7% electricity/heat consumption growth by 2020 in Finland, dependency on imported sources will decrease between 1% and 7% depend on the defined scenarios. Practice Implications: The proposed model not only helps decision makers to test their scenarios related to renewable energy polices, it can be implemented by other countries

  11. Causality in Europeanization Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2012-01-01

    to develop discursive institutional analytical frameworks and something that comes close to the formulation of hypothesis on the effects of European Union (EU) policies and institutions on domestic change. Even if these efforts so far do not necessarily amount to substantive theories or claims of causality......Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the study...

  12. Causal quantum theory and the collapse locality loophole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kent, Adrian

    2005-01-01

    Causal quantum theory is an umbrella term for ordinary quantum theory modified by two hypotheses: state vector reduction is a well-defined process, and strict local causality applies. The first of these holds in some versions of Copenhagen quantum theory and need not necessarily imply practically testable deviations from ordinary quantum theory. The second implies that measurement events which are spacelike separated have no nonlocal correlations. To test this prediction, which sharply differs from standard quantum theory, requires a precise definition of state vector reduction. Formally speaking, any precise version of causal quantum theory defines a local hidden variable theory. However, causal quantum theory is most naturally seen as a variant of standard quantum theory. For that reason it seems a more serious rival to standard quantum theory than local hidden variable models relying on the locality or detector efficiency loopholes. Some plausible versions of causal quantum theory are not refuted by any Bell experiments to date, nor is it evident that they are inconsistent with other experiments. They evade refutation via a neglected loophole in Bell experiments--the collapse locality loophole--which exists because of the possible time lag between a particle entering a measurement device and a collapse taking place. Fairly definitive tests of causal versus standard quantum theory could be made by observing entangled particles separated by ≅0.1 light seconds

  13. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

  14. Parameters in dynamic models of complex traits are containers of missing heritability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunpeng Wang

    Full Text Available Polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of human traits rarely explain more than a small proportion of the heritable variation, and improving this situation within the current paradigm appears daunting. Given a well-validated dynamic model of a complex physiological trait, a substantial part of the underlying genetic variation must manifest as variation in model parameters. These parameters are themselves phenotypic traits. By linking whole-cell phenotypic variation to genetic variation in a computational model of a single heart cell, incorporating genotype-to-parameter maps, we show that genome-wide association studies on parameters reveal much more genetic variation than when using higher-level cellular phenotypes. The results suggest that letting such studies be guided by computational physiology may facilitate a causal understanding of the genotype-to-phenotype map of complex traits, with strong implications for the development of phenomics technology.

  15. The stochastic system approach for estimating dynamic treatments effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commenges, Daniel; Gégout-Petit, Anne

    2015-10-01

    The problem of assessing the effect of a treatment on a marker in observational studies raises the difficulty that attribution of the treatment may depend on the observed marker values. As an example, we focus on the analysis of the effect of a HAART on CD4 counts, where attribution of the treatment may depend on the observed marker values. This problem has been treated using marginal structural models relying on the counterfactual/potential response formalism. Another approach to causality is based on dynamical models, and causal influence has been formalized in the framework of the Doob-Meyer decomposition of stochastic processes. Causal inference however needs assumptions that we detail in this paper and we call this approach to causality the "stochastic system" approach. First we treat this problem in discrete time, then in continuous time. This approach allows incorporating biological knowledge naturally. When working in continuous time, the mechanistic approach involves distinguishing the model for the system and the model for the observations. Indeed, biological systems live in continuous time, and mechanisms can be expressed in the form of a system of differential equations, while observations are taken at discrete times. Inference in mechanistic models is challenging, particularly from a numerical point of view, but these models can yield much richer and reliable results.

  16. Viscous causal cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novello, M.; Salim, J.M.; Torres, J.; Oliveira, H.P. de

    1989-01-01

    A set of spatially homogeneous and isotropic cosmological geometries generated by a class of non-perfect is investigated fluids. The irreversibility if this system is studied in the context of causal thermodynamics which provides a useful mechanism to conform to the non-violation of the causal principle. (author) [pt

  17. Inductive Reasoning about Causally Transmitted Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2008-01-01

    Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates'…

  18. An Online Causal Inference Framework for Modeling and Designing Systems Involving User Preferences: A State-Space Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Delibalta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We provide a causal inference framework to model the effects of machine learning algorithms on user preferences. We then use this mathematical model to prove that the overall system can be tuned to alter those preferences in a desired manner. A user can be an online shopper or a social media user, exposed to digital interventions produced by machine learning algorithms. A user preference can be anything from inclination towards a product to a political party affiliation. Our framework uses a state-space model to represent user preferences as latent system parameters which can only be observed indirectly via online user actions such as a purchase activity or social media status updates, shares, blogs, or tweets. Based on these observations, machine learning algorithms produce digital interventions such as targeted advertisements or tweets. We model the effects of these interventions through a causal feedback loop, which alters the corresponding preferences of the user. We then introduce algorithms in order to estimate and later tune the user preferences to a particular desired form. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms through experiments in different scenarios.

  19. The argumentative impact of causal relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

    1996-01-01

    such as causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation.......The semantic relations between and within utterances are marked by the use of connectors and adverbials. One type of semantic relations is causal relations expressed by causal markers such as because, therefore, so, for, etc. Some of these markers cover different types of causal relations...

  20. A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

    2018-02-25

    We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Spatiotemporal neural network dynamics for the processing of dynamic facial expressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Wataru; Kochiyama, Takanori; Uono, Shota

    2015-01-01

    The dynamic facial expressions of emotion automatically elicit multifaceted psychological activities; however, the temporal profiles and dynamic interaction patterns of brain activities remain unknown. We investigated these issues using magnetoencephalography. Participants passively observed dynamic facial expressions of fear and happiness, or dynamic mosaics. Source-reconstruction analyses utilizing functional magnetic-resonance imaging data revealed higher activation in broad regions of the bilateral occipital and temporal cortices in response to dynamic facial expressions than in response to dynamic mosaics at 150–200 ms and some later time points. The right inferior frontal gyrus exhibited higher activity for dynamic faces versus mosaics at 300–350 ms. Dynamic causal-modeling analyses revealed that dynamic faces activated the dual visual routes and visual–motor route. Superior influences of feedforward and feedback connections were identified before and after 200 ms, respectively. These results indicate that hierarchical, bidirectional neural network dynamics within a few hundred milliseconds implement the processing of dynamic facial expressions. PMID:26206708

  2. Spatiotemporal neural network dynamics for the processing of dynamic facial expressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Wataru; Kochiyama, Takanori; Uono, Shota

    2015-07-24

    The dynamic facial expressions of emotion automatically elicit multifaceted psychological activities; however, the temporal profiles and dynamic interaction patterns of brain activities remain unknown. We investigated these issues using magnetoencephalography. Participants passively observed dynamic facial expressions of fear and happiness, or dynamic mosaics. Source-reconstruction analyses utilizing functional magnetic-resonance imaging data revealed higher activation in broad regions of the bilateral occipital and temporal cortices in response to dynamic facial expressions than in response to dynamic mosaics at 150-200 ms and some later time points. The right inferior frontal gyrus exhibited higher activity for dynamic faces versus mosaics at 300-350 ms. Dynamic causal-modeling analyses revealed that dynamic faces activated the dual visual routes and visual-motor route. Superior influences of feedforward and feedback connections were identified before and after 200 ms, respectively. These results indicate that hierarchical, bidirectional neural network dynamics within a few hundred milliseconds implement the processing of dynamic facial expressions.

  3. Verification of temporal-causal network models by mathematical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Treur

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Usually dynamic properties of models can be analysed by conducting simulation experiments. But sometimes, as a kind of prediction properties can also be found by calculations in a mathematical manner, without performing simulations. Examples of properties that can be explored in such a manner are: whether some values for the variables exist for which no change occurs (stationary points or equilibria, and how such values may depend on the values of the parameters of the model and/or the initial values for the variables whether certain variables in the model converge to some limit value (equilibria and how this may depend on the values of the parameters of the model and/or the initial values for the variables whether or not certain variables will show monotonically increasing or decreasing values over time (monotonicity how fast a convergence to a limit value takes place (convergence speed whether situations occur in which no convergence takes place but in the end a specific sequence of values is repeated all the time (limit cycle Such properties found in an analytic mathematical manner can be used for verification of the model by checking them for the values observed in simulation experiments. If one of these properties is not fulfilled, then there will be some error in the implementation of the model. In this paper some methods to analyse such properties of dynamical models will be described and illustrated for the Hebbian learning model, and for dynamic connection strengths in social networks. The properties analysed by the methods discussed cover equilibria, increasing or decreasing trends, recurring patterns (limit cycles, and speed of convergence to equilibria.

  4. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  5. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using a system dynamics model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, J. K. [Systemix Company, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, T. S. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-07-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of organizational and human factors in the nuclear power plant safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach such as ergonomics and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is socio-psychology one. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and increased nuclear safety However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions between factors or variables in NPP's. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show causal relations between factors and quantify organizational and human factors, has been developed. Operating variables such as degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plants in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get an insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side.

  6. Root causes occurrence of low BIM adoption in Malaysia: System dynamics modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamter, Shahela; Aziz, Abdul Rashid Abdul; Zulkepli, Jafri

    2017-11-01

    The global implementation of BIM in the construction field is increasing worldwide. Due to the advantages offered by BIM, its implementation is considered important in the construction projects. Nevertheless, the Construction Industry Transformation Plan has reported that the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in Malaysia is still low and it is estimated at only 10 percent adoption amongst construction stake players. The barriers influencing the occurrence of low adoption BIM in Malaysia have been studied by some researchers. However, these researchers did not investigate the root causes which might lead to the recurring of the barriers to BIM adoption. Root causes that immediately occurrence of barriers, also known as precipitants or trigger causes. This conceptual paper developed the causal loop diagram (CLD) which presents the relationship between the perceived variables using system dynamic modelling approach. The findings revealed a novelty validated diagrams that design the holistic dynamic relationship on the root causes occurrence of low BIM adoption. Nonetheless, the diagram subject to more empirical testing for its practicability and further refinement upon more results expected to emerge as the research progresses.

  7. The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler Michael

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Bradford Hill's considerations published in 1965 had an enormous influence on attempts to separate causal from non-causal explanations of observed associations. These considerations were often applied as a checklist of criteria, although they were by no means intended to be used in this way by Hill himself. Hill, however, avoided defining explicitly what he meant by "causal effect". This paper provides a fresh point of view on Hill's considerations from the perspective of counterfactual causality. I argue that counterfactual arguments strongly contribute to the question of when to apply the Hill considerations. Some of the considerations, however, involve many counterfactuals in a broader causal system, and their heuristic value decreases as the complexity of a system increases; the danger of misapplying them can be high. The impacts of these insights for study design and data analysis are discussed. The key analysis tool to assess the applicability of Hill's considerations is multiple bias modelling (Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis; these methods should be used much more frequently.

  8. The power of possibility: causal learning, counterfactual reasoning, and pretend play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchsbaum, Daphna; Bridgers, Sophie; Skolnick Weisberg, Deena; Gopnik, Alison

    2012-08-05

    We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. We suggest that exploratory childhood learning, childhood play in particular, and causal cognition are closely connected. We report an empirical study demonstrating one such connection--a link between pretend play and counterfactual causal reasoning. Preschool children given new information about a causal system made very similar inferences both when they considered counterfactuals about the system and when they engaged in pretend play about it. Counterfactual cognition and causally coherent pretence were also significantly correlated even when age, general cognitive development and executive function were controlled for. These findings link a distinctive human form of childhood play and an equally distinctive human form of causal inference. We speculate that, during human evolution, computations that were initially reserved for solving particularly important ecological problems came to be used much more widely and extensively during the long period of protected immaturity.

  9. The causal effect of institutional quality on outsourcing

    OpenAIRE

    H.J. Roelfsema; Zhang Yi

    2009-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between institutional quality and outsourcing to developing economies. In contrast to cross-sectional studies on institutions, this paper uses panel data for 76 countries over 25 years (1980-2004). Employing panel data helps to show the causal relationship by controlling for the fixed effects and dynamic factors. Using within and IV estimations, we find that there is a positive effect of institutional quality on outsourcing in the lower-mid...

  10. A prototype system dynamic model of nuclear and radiological export controls in Central Asia and the Caucasus; enhancing the effectiveness of preventing illicit nuclear material trafficking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguston, C.D.; Ouagrham, S.B.

    2002-01-01

    An urgent need calls out for improved border security and export control systems in the Central Asian and Caucasus regions to prevent illicit nuclear and radioactive materials trafficking. Effective nuclear and radiological exports controls are essential because these regions contain numerous nuclear facilities and radioactive materials as well as lie at the crossroads between seekers and suppliers of technologies that could be employed in nuclear and radiological weapons. Porous and unprotected borders compound these concerns. Moreover, the states within these regions are struggling with forming new regulations and laws, obtaining sufficient portal monitoring equipment, training customs and border security personnel, and coordinating these activities with neighboring states. Building this infrastructure all at once can severely task any government. Thus, unsurprisingly, most of these states have inadequate export control and border security systems. To enable each state in these regions determine how to better prevent illicit nuclear and radiological materials trafficking, the authors have developed a prototype system dynamics model focused on evaluating and improving of effectiveness of export controls. System dynamics modeling, a management tool that grew out of the field of system engineering and nonlinear dynamics, uses two structures: causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams. The former shows how endogenous systematic factors interact with each other to produce feedback mechanisms that results in either balancing or reinforcing loops. A classic example is a arms race, modeled as a vicious cycle or reinforcing loop. In addition to interacting with each other, causal loops influence the flow of stock, which is material concern. In the export control system dynamics model, the stock represents nuclear and radioactive materials. System dynamics modelling is an iterative process that is continually modified by user input. Therefore, export control

  11. Medical Disease or Moral Defect? Stigma Attribution and Cultural Models of Addiction Causality in a University Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Nicole L; Dressler, William W

    2017-12-01

    This study examines the knowledge individuals use to make judgments about persons with substance use disorder. First, we show that there is a cultural model of addiction causality that is both shared and contested. Second, we examine how individuals' understanding of that model is associated with stigma attribution. Research was conducted among undergraduate students at the University of Alabama. College students in the 18-25 age range are especially at risk for developing substance use disorder, and they are, perhaps more than any other population group, intensely targeted by drug education. The elicited cultural model includes different types of causes distributed across five distinct themes: Biological, Self-Medication, Familial, Social, and Hedonistic. Though there was cultural consensus among respondents overall, residual agreement analysis showed that the cultural model of addiction causality is a multicentric domain. Two centers of the model, the moral and the medical, were discovered. Differing adherence to these centers is associated with the level of stigma attributed towards individuals with substance use disorder. The results suggest that current approaches to substance use education could contribute to stigma attribution, which may or may not be inadvertent. The significance of these results for both theory and the treatment of addiction are discussed.

  12. Normative and descriptive accounts of the influence of power and contingency on causal judgement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales, José C; Shanks, David R

    2003-08-01

    The power PC theory (Cheng, 1997) is a normative account of causal inference, which predicts that causal judgements are based on the power p of a potential cause, where p is the cause-effect contingency normalized by the base rate of the effect. In three experiments we demonstrate that both cause-effect contingency and effect base-rate independently affect estimates in causal learning tasks. In Experiment 1, causal strength judgements were directly related to power p in a task in which the effect base-rate was manipulated across two positive and two negative contingency conditions. In Experiments 2 and 3 contingency manipulations affected causal estimates in several situations in which power p was held constant, contrary to the power PC theory's predictions. This latter effect cannot be explained by participants' conflation of reliability and causal strength, as Experiment 3 demonstrated independence of causal judgements and confidence. From a descriptive point of view, the data are compatible with Pearce's (1987) model, as well as with several other judgement rules, but not with the Rescorla-Wagner (Rescorla & Wagner, 1972) or power PC models.

  13. Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Glenn D

    2018-01-01

    This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Causal Indicator Models Have Nothing to Do with Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Roy D.; Breivik, Einar

    2016-01-01

    In this article, Roy Howell, and Einar Breivik, congratulate Aguirre-Urreta, M. I., Rönkkö, M., & Marakas, G. M., for their work (2016) "Omission of Causal Indicators: Consequences and Implications for Measurement," Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 14(3), 75-97. doi:10.1080/15366367.2016.1205935. They call it…

  15. Causal inference with missing exposure information: Methods and applications to an obstetric study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiwei; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Bo; Tang, Li; Zhang, Jun

    2016-10-01

    Causal inference in observational studies is frequently challenged by the occurrence of missing data, in addition to confounding. Motivated by the Consortium on Safe Labor, a large observational study of obstetric labor practice and birth outcomes, this article focuses on the problem of missing exposure information in a causal analysis of observational data. This problem can be approached from different angles (i.e. missing covariates and causal inference), and useful methods can be obtained by drawing upon the available techniques and insights in both areas. In this article, we describe and compare a collection of methods based on different modeling assumptions, under standard assumptions for missing data (i.e. missing-at-random and positivity) and for causal inference with complete data (i.e. no unmeasured confounding and another positivity assumption). These methods involve three models: one for treatment assignment, one for the dependence of outcome on treatment and covariates, and one for the missing data mechanism. In general, consistent estimation of causal quantities requires correct specification of at least two of the three models, although there may be some flexibility as to which two models need to be correct. Such flexibility is afforded by doubly robust estimators adapted from the missing covariates literature and the literature on causal inference with complete data, and by a newly developed triply robust estimator that is consistent if any two of the three models are correct. The methods are applied to the Consortium on Safe Labor data and compared in a simulation study mimicking the Consortium on Safe Labor. © The Author(s) 2013.

  16. Causal Scale of Rotors in a Cardiac System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Prieto-Castrillo, Francisco; Kawakatsu, Mari; Dehghani, Nima

    2018-04-01

    Rotors of spiral waves are thought to be one of the potential mechanisms that maintain atrial fibrillation (AF). However, disappointing clinical outcomes of rotor mapping and ablation to eliminate AF raise a serious doubt on rotors as a macro-scale mechanism that causes the micro-scale behavior of individual cardiomyocytes to maintain spiral waves. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the causal relationship between rotors and spiral waves in a numerical model of cardiac excitation. To accomplish the aim, we described the system in a series of spatiotemporal scales by generating a renormalization group, and evaluated the causal architecture of the system by quantifying causal emergence. Causal emergence is an information-theoretic metric that quantifies emergence or reduction between micro- and macro-scale behaviors of a system by evaluating effective information at each scale. We found that the cardiac system with rotors has a spatiotemporal scale at which effective information peaks. A positive correlation between the number of rotors and causal emergence was observed only up to the scale of peak causation. We conclude that rotors are not the universal mechanism to maintain spiral waves at all spatiotemporal scales. This finding may account for the conflicting benefit of rotor ablation in clinical studies.

  17. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  18. Identifying Causal Gateways and Mediators in Complex Spatio-Temporal Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Runge, J.; Petoukhov, V.; Donges, J.F.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Jajcay, Nikola; Vejmelka, Martin; Hartman, David; Marwan, N.; Paluš, Milan; Kurths, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 6, 7 October (2015), Article 8502 ISSN 2041-1723 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-02634S; GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1201; AV ČR + DAAD(CZ-DE) DAAD-15-30 Program:Bilaterální spolupráce Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : causality * climate * complex systems * dimension reduction * atmospheric dynamics * networks * dynamical systems Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 11.329, year: 2015

  19. Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

  20. Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Rohe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

  1. The Reactive-Causal Architecture: Introducing an Emotion Model along with Theories of Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Ali Orhan; Orgun, Mehmet Ali

    In the entertainment application area, one of the major aims is to develop believable agents. To achieve this aim, agents should be highly autonomous, situated, flexible, and display affect. The Reactive-Causal Architecture (ReCau) is proposed to simulate these core attributes. In its current form, ReCau cannot explain the effects of emotions on intelligent behaviour. This study aims is to further improve the emotion model of ReCau to explain the effects of emotions on intelligent behaviour. This improvement allows ReCau to be emotional to support the development of believable agents.

  2. A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regression Discontinuity Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2013-01-01

    The regression discontinuity (RD) design (Thistlewaite & Campbell, 1960; Cook, 2008) provides a framework to identify and estimate causal effects from a non-randomized design. Each subject of a RD design is assigned to the treatment (versus assignment to a non-treatment) whenever her/his observed value of the assignment variable equals or…

  3. Integrative analysis of functional genomic annotations and sequencing data to identify rare causal variants via hierarchical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela eCapanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the small number of rare causal variants contributing to disease has beena major focus of investigation in recent years, but represents a formidable statisticalchallenge due to the rare frequencies with which these variants are observed. In thiscommentary we draw attention to a formal statistical framework, namely hierarchicalmodeling, to combine functional genomic annotations with sequencing data with theobjective of enhancing our ability to identify rare causal variants. Using simulations weshow that in all configurations studied, the hierarchical modeling approach has superiordiscriminatory ability compared to a recently proposed aggregate measure of deleteriousness,the Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD score, supportingour premise that aggregate functional genomic measures can more accurately identifycausal variants when used in conjunction with sequencing data through a hierarchicalmodeling approach

  4. Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sung Wook

    This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

  5. Informational and Causal Architecture of Discrete-Time Renewal Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E. Marzen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic for their prediction (the set of causal states, calculate the historical memory capacity required to store those states (statistical complexity, delineate what information is predictable (excess entropy, and decompose the entropy of a single measurement into that shared with the past, future, or both. The causal state equivalence relation defines a new subclass of renewal processes with a finite number of causal states despite having an unbounded interevent count distribution. We use the resulting formulae to analyze the output of the parametrized Simple Nonunifilar Source, generated by a simple two-state hidden Markov model, but with an infinite-state ϵ-machine presentation. All in all, the results lay the groundwork for analyzing more complex processes with infinite statistical complexity and infinite excess entropy.

  6. Causality analysis of diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamba, Jean Gaston; Njomo, Donatien; Limanond, Thirayoot; Ntsafack, Borel

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the causal relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon by using a three-step modern time-series technique. Tests for unit roots, cointegration, and Granger-causality based on error correction model are employed on annual data covering the period 1975–2008. Empirical results of the study confirm the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth. The error correction model shows that an estimated 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30% in the long-run. The overall results show that there exists bidirectional causality in the long-run relationship and no causality in the short-run relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth at the 5% level of significance. Thus, the energy policies in Cameroon should place priority on the discovery of new oil field and building capacity additions of the refinery to increase production of petroleum products, as this would propel the economic growth of the country. - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationship between diesel consumption and GDP in Cameroon. ► we analyze the petroleum products sector in Cameroon. ► 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30%. ► The policy aimed at improving diesel supply have a positive impact on economics.

  7. Modelling the Dynamic Impacts of High Speed Rail Operation on Regional Public Transport—From the Perspective of Energy Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Chih Chou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available While the introduction of a high speed rail (HSR provides passengers with another more environmentally friendly, convenient, and time-saving transport option, it also disrupts the existing passenger transport market. This study adopts time series analysis to model the dynamic competition in a regional passenger transport market when an HSR is introduced. The analyses include examining the long-run equilibrium and causal relationships, and the short-run causality and dynamic relationships between transport modes. In addition, based on the model we conduct impulse response tests and variance decomposition tests to further interpret the interactions between two transport modes. An empirical study is carried out, and the findings indicate that the HSR has a negative impact on conventional rail and air transport in the long-run. In the short-run dynamics, the air passenger transport volume could be regarded as a good predictor of HSR passenger volume. In turn, the HSR passenger volume could be used to predict conventional rail transport volume. The operations of HSR and conventional rail are complementary in the short term. From the short-run market viewpoint, the HSR and conventional rail meet different kinds of passenger demand. Therefore, a previous increased passenger volume for the HSR implies an overall increasing demand for regional transport. Consequently, the past increased HSR passenger volume could be used to predict the growth of conventional rail transport. Through the impulse response test, we can further track the responses of the three transport modes to the shocks from themselves and each other.

  8. DYNAMIC MODEL “ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION - GDP” FOR REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sit B.M.

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the development of econometric models of electricity consumption in Republic of Moldova with the purpose of definition of potential possibilities of GPD influence on electricity consumption processes.In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita GDP for Republic of Moldova using VAR model. Our results show that there is bidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption and vice versa. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development.

  9. Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

  10. A Network-Based Data Envelope Analysis Model in a Dynamic Balanced Score Card

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Akbarian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance assessment during the time and along with strategies is the most important requirements of top managers. To assess the performance, a balanced score card (BSC along with strategic goals and a data envelopment analysis (DEA are used as powerful qualitative and quantitative tools, respectively. By integrating these two models, their strengths are used and their weaknesses are removed. In this paper, an integrated framework of the BSC and DEA models is proposed for measuring the efficiency during the time and along with strategies based on the time delay of the lag key performance indicators (KPIs of the BSC model. The causal relationships during the time among perspectives of the BSC model are drawn as dynamic BSC at first. Then, after identifying the network-DEA structure, a new objective function for measuring the efficiency of nine subsidiary refineries of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC during the time and along with strategies is developed.

  11. The Functions of Danish Causal Conjunctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Therkelsen

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article I propose an analysis of the Danish causal conjunctions fordi, siden and for based on the framework of Danish Functional Grammar. As conjunctions they relate two clauses, and their semantics have in common that it indicates a causal relationship between the clauses. The causal conjunctions are different as far as their distribution is concerned; siden conjoins a subordinate clause and a main clause, for conjoins two main clauses, and fordi is able to do both. Methodologically I have based my analysis on these distributional properties comparing siden and fordi conjoining a subordinate and a main clause, and comparing for and fordi conjoining two main clauses, following the thesis that they would establish a causal relationship between different kinds of content. My main findings are that fordi establishes a causal relationship between the events referred to by the two clauses, and the whole utterance functions as a statement of this causal relationship. Siden presupposes such a general causal relationship between the two events and puts forward the causing event as a reason for assuming or wishing or ordering the caused event, siden thus establishes a causal relationship between an event and a speech act. For equally presupposes a general causal relationship between two events and it establishes a causal relationship between speech acts, and fordi conjoining two main clauses is able to do this too, but in this position it also maintains its event-relating ability, the interpretation depending on contextual factors.

  12. Space and time in perceptual causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Straube

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Inferring causality is a fundamental feature of human cognition that allows us to theorize about and predict future states of the world. Michotte suggested that humans automatically perceive causality based on certain perceptual features of events. However, individual differences in judgments of perceptual causality cast doubt on Michotte’s view. To gain insights in the neural basis of individual difference in the perception of causality, our participants judged causal relationships in animations of a blue ball colliding with a red ball (a launching event while fMRI-data were acquired. Spatial continuity and temporal contiguity were varied parametrically in these stimuli. We did not find consistent brain activation differences between trials judged as caused and those judged as non-caused, making it unlikely that humans have universal instantiation of perceptual causality in the brain. However, participants were slower to respond to and showed greater neural activity for violations of causality, suggesting that humans are biased to expect causal relationships when moving objects appear to interact. Our participants demonstrated considerable individual differences in their sensitivity to spatial and temporal characteristics in perceiving causality. These qualitative differences in sensitivity to time or space in perceiving causality were instantiated in individual differences in activation of the left basal ganglia or right parietal lobe, respectively. Thus, the perception that the movement of one object causes the movement of another is triggered by elemental spatial and temporal sensitivities, which themselves are instantiated in specific distinct neural networks.

  13. Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yuan; Wang Yichen; Zhou Jing; Zhu Xiaodong; Lu Genfa

    2011-01-01

    This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in China during the period from 1972 to 2006, using a multivariate cointegration approach. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study performs a multivariate causality framework by incorporating capital and labor variables into the model between energy consumption and economic growth based on neo-classical aggregate production theory. Using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, a long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship has been found to exist between economic growth and the explanatory variables: energy consumption, capital and employment. Empirical results reveal that the long-run parameter of energy consumption on economic growth in China is approximately 0.15, through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and that for the short-run is approximately 0.12 by the error correction model. The study also indicates the existence of short-run and long-run causality running from energy consumption, capital and employment to economic growth. The estimation results imply that energy serves as an important source of economic growth, thus more vigorous energy use and economic development strategies should be adopted for China. - Highlights: → Cointegration is only present when real GDP is the dependent variable. →The long-run causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. →China is an energy dependent economy.

  14. Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-02-12

    This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments in which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.

  15. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joffe Michael

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s. Transmitted causes ("causes of causes" tend not to be systematically analysed. The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties. The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets. Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

  16. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joffe, Michael; Gambhir, Manoj; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Vineis, Paolo

    2012-03-19

    Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed.The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties.The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets.Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

  17. Neural theory for the perception of causal actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, Falk; Christensen, Andrea; Caggiano, Vittorio; Thier, Peter; Giese, Martin A

    2012-07-01

    The efficient prediction of the behavior of others requires the recognition of their actions and an understanding of their action goals. In humans, this process is fast and extremely robust, as demonstrated by classical experiments showing that human observers reliably judge causal relationships and attribute interactive social behavior to strongly simplified stimuli consisting of simple moving geometrical shapes. While psychophysical experiments have identified critical visual features that determine the perception of causality and agency from such stimuli, the underlying detailed neural mechanisms remain largely unclear, and it is an open question why humans developed this advanced visual capability at all. We created pairs of naturalistic and abstract stimuli of hand actions that were exactly matched in terms of their motion parameters. We show that varying critical stimulus parameters for both stimulus types leads to very similar modulations of the perception of causality. However, the additional form information about the hand shape and its relationship with the object supports more fine-grained distinctions for the naturalistic stimuli. Moreover, we show that a physiologically plausible model for the recognition of goal-directed hand actions reproduces the observed dependencies of causality perception on critical stimulus parameters. These results support the hypothesis that selectivity for abstract action stimuli might emerge from the same neural mechanisms that underlie the visual processing of natural goal-directed action stimuli. Furthermore, the model proposes specific detailed neural circuits underlying this visual function, which can be evaluated in future experiments.

  18. Modelling the effect of religion on human empathy based on an adaptive temporal-causal network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ments, Laila; Roelofsma, Peter; Treur, Jan

    2018-01-01

    Religion is a central aspect of many individuals' lives around the world, and its influence on human behaviour has been extensively studied from many different perspectives. The current study integrates a number of these perspectives into one adaptive temporal-causal network model describing the mental states involved, their mutual relations, and the adaptation of some of these relations over time due to learning. By first developing a conceptual representation of a network model based on the literature, and then formalizing this model into a numerical representation, simulations can be done for almost any kind of religion and person, showing different behaviours for persons with different religious backgrounds and characters. The focus was mainly on the influence of religion on human empathy and dis-empathy, a topic very relevant today. The developed model could be valuable for many uses, involving support for a better understanding, and even prediction, of the behaviour of religious individuals. It is illustrated for a number of different scenarios based on different characteristics of the persons and of the religion.

  19. Causal symmetric spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Olafsson, Gestur; Helgason, Sigurdur

    1996-01-01

    This book is intended to introduce researchers and graduate students to the concepts of causal symmetric spaces. To date, results of recent studies considered standard by specialists have not been widely published. This book seeks to bring this information to students and researchers in geometry and analysis on causal symmetric spaces.Includes the newest results in harmonic analysis including Spherical functions on ordered symmetric space and the holmorphic discrete series and Hardy spaces on compactly casual symmetric spacesDeals with the infinitesimal situation, coverings of symmetric spaces, classification of causal symmetric pairs and invariant cone fieldsPresents basic geometric properties of semi-simple symmetric spacesIncludes appendices on Lie algebras and Lie groups, Bounded symmetric domains (Cayley transforms), Antiholomorphic Involutions on Bounded Domains and Para-Hermitian Symmetric Spaces

  20. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  1. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia

    2017-09-29

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  2. Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mozumder, Pallab; Marathe, Achla

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita GDP for Bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model. Our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption. However, the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita GDP in case of Bangladesh. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development

  3. Specious causal attributions in the social sciences: the reformulated stepping-stone theory of heroin use as exemplar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumrind, D

    1983-12-01

    The claims based on causal models employing either statistical or experimental controls are examined and found to be excessive when applied to social or behavioral science data. An exemplary case, in which strong causal claims are made on the basis of a weak version of the regularity model of cause, is critiqued. O'Donnell and Clayton claim that in order to establish that marijuana use is a cause of heroin use (their "reformulated stepping-stone" hypothesis), it is necessary and sufficient to demonstrate that marijuana use precedes heroin use and that the statistically significant association between the two does not vanish when the effects of other variables deemed to be prior to both of them are removed. I argue that O'Donnell and Clayton's version of the regularity model is not sufficient to establish cause and that the planning of social interventions both presumes and requires a generative rather than a regularity causal model. Causal modeling using statistical controls is of value when it compels the investigator to make explicit and to justify a causal explanation but not when it is offered as a substitute for a generative analysis of causal connection.

  4. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

  5. Causal Set Generator and Action Computer

    OpenAIRE

    Cunningham, William; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2017-01-01

    The causal set approach to quantum gravity has gained traction over the past three decades, but numerical experiments involving causal sets have been limited to relatively small scales. The software suite presented here provides a new framework for the generation and study of causal sets. Its efficiency surpasses previous implementations by several orders of magnitude. We highlight several important features of the code, including the compact data structures, the $O(N^2)$ causal set generatio...

  6. BioCause: Annotating and analysing causality in the biomedical domain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihăilă, Claudiu; Ohta, Tomoko; Pyysalo, Sampo; Ananiadou, Sophia

    2013-01-16

    Biomedical corpora annotated with event-level information represent an important resource for domain-specific information extraction (IE) systems. However, bio-event annotation alone cannot cater for all the needs of biologists. Unlike work on relation and event extraction, most of which focusses on specific events and named entities, we aim to build a comprehensive resource, covering all statements of causal association present in discourse. Causality lies at the heart of biomedical knowledge, such as diagnosis, pathology or systems biology, and, thus, automatic causality recognition can greatly reduce the human workload by suggesting possible causal connections and aiding in the curation of pathway models. A biomedical text corpus annotated with such relations is, hence, crucial for developing and evaluating biomedical text mining. We have defined an annotation scheme for enriching biomedical domain corpora with causality relations. This schema has subsequently been used to annotate 851 causal relations to form BioCause, a collection of 19 open-access full-text biomedical journal articles belonging to the subdomain of infectious diseases. These documents have been pre-annotated with named entity and event information in the context of previous shared tasks. We report an inter-annotator agreement rate of over 60% for triggers and of over 80% for arguments using an exact match constraint. These increase significantly using a relaxed match setting. Moreover, we analyse and describe the causality relations in BioCause from various points of view. This information can then be leveraged for the training of automatic causality detection systems. Augmenting named entity and event annotations with information about causal discourse relations could benefit the development of more sophisticated IE systems. These will further influence the development of multiple tasks, such as enabling textual inference to detect entailments, discovering new facts and providing new

  7. Spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eichhorn, Astrid; Mizera, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity by simulating random walks on causal sets. In contrast to other approaches to quantum gravity, we find an increasing spectral dimension at small scales. This observation can be connected to the nonlocality of causal set theory that is deeply rooted in its fundamentally Lorentzian nature. Based on its large-scale behaviour, we conjecture that the spectral dimension can serve as a tool to distinguish causal sets that approximate manifolds from those that do not. As a new tool to probe quantum spacetime in different quantum gravity approaches, we introduce a novel dimensional estimator, the causal spectral dimension, based on the meeting probability of two random walkers, which respect the causal structure of the quantum spacetime. We discuss a causal-set example, where the spectral dimension and the causal spectral dimension differ, due to the existence of a preferred foliation. (paper)

  8. The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual U.S. real GDP, total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis. We also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. Furthermore, the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s. - Highlights: • Total energy consumption has predictive content for real economic activity. • The causality from energy to output growth is apparent in the periods of recession. • The causality from energy to output growth is strong in the periods of energy crisis. • Output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. • The power of output growth in explaining energy diminishes after the mid of 1980s

  9. ¿CONFIEREN PODERES CAUSALES LOS UNIVERSALES TRASCENDENTES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Tomás Alvarado Marambio

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This work discusses the so-called ‘Eleatic’ argument against the existence of transcendent universals, i. e. universals which does not require instantiation for its existence. The Eleatic Principle states that everything produces a difference in the causal powers of something. As transcendent universals seem not to produce such a difference, transcendent universals seem not to exist. The argument depends crucially on the justification and the interpretation of the Eleatic Principle. It is argued, first, that it is not very clear that the principle is justified, and, second, that there are several alternatives for its interpretation, in relation with the different theories one can endorse about modality or causality. Anti-realist theories of modality or causality are not very appropriate for the understanding of what should be a ‘causal power’. Neither does a realist theory of causality conjoined with a combinatorial theory of possible worlds. A ‘causal power’ seems to be better understood in connection with a realist –non-reductionist– theory of causality and a causal theory of modality. Taken in this way the Eleatic Principle, nonetheless, it is argued that transcendent universals do ‘produce’ a difference in causal powers, for every causal connection requires such universals for its existence.

  10. Re-thinking local causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friederich, Simon

    There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the

  11. mediation: R package for causal mediation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tingley, Dustin; Yamamoto, Teppei; Hirose, Kentaro; Keele, Luke; Imai, Kosuke

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting su...

  12. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

  13. Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

    2014-06-01

    We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Comments: Causal Interpretations of Mediation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    The authors thank Dr. Lindsay Page for providing a nice illustration of the use of the principal stratification framework to define causal effects, and a Bayesian model for effect estimation. They hope that her well-written article will help expose education researchers to these concepts and methods, and move the field of mediation analysis in…

  15. Numerical limitations in application of vector autoregressive modeling and Granger causality to analysis of EEG time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammerdiner, Alla; Xanthopoulos, Petros; Pardalos, Panos M.

    2007-11-01

    In this chapter a potential problem with application of the Granger-causality based on the simple vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling to EEG data is investigated. Although some initial studies tested whether the data support the stationarity assumption of VAR, the stability of the estimated model is rarely (if ever) been verified. In fact, in cases when the stability condition is violated the process may exhibit a random walk like behavior or even be explosive. The problem is illustrated by an example.

  16. The selective power of causality on memory errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Jessecae K; Kulkofsky, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    We tested the influence of causal links on the production of memory errors in a misinformation paradigm. Participants studied a set of statements about a person, which were presented as either individual statements or pairs of causally linked statements. Participants were then provided with causally plausible and causally implausible misinformation. We hypothesised that studying information connected with causal links would promote representing information in a more abstract manner. As such, we predicted that causal information would not provide an overall protection against memory errors, but rather would preferentially help in the rejection of misinformation that was causally implausible, given the learned causal links. In two experiments, we measured whether the causal linkage of information would be generally protective against all memory errors or only selectively protective against certain types of memory errors. Causal links helped participants reject implausible memory lures, but did not protect against plausible lures. Our results suggest that causal information may promote an abstract storage of information that helps prevent only specific types of memory errors.

  17. Reasoning the causality of city sprawl, traffic congestion, and green land disappearance in Taiwan using the CLD model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mei-Chih; Chang, Kaowen

    2014-11-06

    Many city governments choose to supply more developable land and transportation infrastructure with the hope of attracting people and businesses to their cities. However, like those in Taiwan, major cities worldwide suffer from traffic congestion. This study applies the system thinking logic of the causal loops diagram (CLD) model in the System Dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the issue of traffic congestion and other issues related to roads and land development in Taiwan's cities. Comparing the characteristics of development trends with yearbook data for 2002 to 2013 for all of Taiwan's cities, this study explores the developing phenomenon of unlimited city sprawl and identifies the cause and effect relationships in the characteristics of development trends in traffic congestion, high-density population aggregation in cities, land development, and green land disappearance resulting from city sprawl. This study provides conclusions for Taiwan's cities' sustainability and development (S&D). When developing S&D policies, during decision making processes concerning city planning and land use management, governments should think with a holistic view of carrying capacity with the assistance of system thinking to clarify the prejudices in favor of the unlimited developing phenomena resulting from city sprawl.

  18. Causality and analyticity in optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nussenzveig, H.M.

    In order to provide an overall picture of the broad range of optical phenomena that are directly linked with the concepts of causality and analyticity, the following topics are briefly reviewed, emphasizing recent developments: 1) Derivation of dispersion relations for the optical constants of general linear media from causality. Application to the theory of natural optical activity. 2) Derivation of sum rules for the optical constants from causality and from the short-time response function (asymptotic high-frequency behavior). Average spectral behavior of optical media. Applications. 3) Role of spectral conditions. Analytic properties of coherence functions in quantum optics. Reconstruction theorem.4) Phase retrieval problems. 5) Inverse scattering problems. 6) Solution of nonlinear evolution equations in optics by inverse scattering methods. Application to self-induced transparency. Causality in nonlinear wave propagation. 7) Analytic continuation in frequency and angular momentum. Complex singularities. Resonances and natural-mode expansions. Regge poles. 8) Wigner's causal inequality. Time delay. Spatial displacements in total reflection. 9) Analyticity in diffraction theory. Complex angular momentum theory of Mie scattering. Diffraction as a barrier tunnelling effect. Complex trajectories in optics. (Author) [pt

  19. Causal asymmetry across cultures: Assigning causal roles in symmetric physical settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea eBender

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In the cognitive sciences, causal cognition in the physical domain has featured as a core research topic, but the impact of culture has been rarely ever explored. One case in point for a topic on which this neglect is pronounced is the pervasive tendency of people to consider one of two (equally important entities as more important for bringing about an effect. In order to scrutinize how robust such tendencies are across cultures, we asked German and Tongan participants to assign prime causality in nine symmetric settings. For most settings, strong asymmetries in both cultures were found, but not always in the same direction, depending on the task content. This indicates that causal asymmetries, while indeed being a robust phenomenon across cultures, are also subject to culture-specific concepts. Moreover, the asymmetries were found to be modulated by figure-ground relations, but not by marking agency.

  20. Teaching towards historical expertise: developing a pedagogy for fostering causal reasoning in history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoel, G.L.; van Drie, J.P.; van Boxtel, C.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    The present study seeks to develop a pedagogy aimed at fostering a student’s ability to reason causally about history. The Model of Domain Learning (Alexander, 2003) was used as a framework to align domain-specific content with pedagogical principles. Developing causal historical reasoning was

  1. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  2. Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

  3. Co-integration and Causality Among Jakarta Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange, and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Febrian, Erie; Herwany, Aldrin

    2007-01-01

    For both risk management and portfolio selection purposes, modeling the linkage across financial markets is crucial, especially among neighboring stock markets. In investigating the dependence or co-movement of three or more stock markets in different countries, researchers frequently use co-integration and causality analysis. Nevertheless, they conducted the causality in mean tests but not the causality in variance tests. This paper examines the co-integration and causal relations among ...

  4. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  5. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  6. Birth spacing and neonatal mortality in India : Dynamics, frailty and fecundity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhalotra, S.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2008-01-01

    Using microdata on 30,000 child births in India and dynamic panel data models, we analyze causal effects of birth spacing on subsequent neonatal mortality and of mortality on subsequent birth intervals, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Right censoring is accounted for by jointly estimating

  7. Synergy and redundancy in the Granger causal analysis of dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stramaglia, Sebastiano; M Cortes, Jesus; Marinazzo, Daniele

    2014-01-01

    We analyze, by means of Granger causality (GC), the effect of synergy and redundancy in the inference (from time series data) of the information flow between subsystems of a complex network. While we show that fully conditioned GC (CGC) is not affected by synergy, the pairwise analysis fails to prove synergetic effects. In cases when the number of samples is low, thus making the fully conditioned approach unfeasible, we show that partially conditioned GC (PCGC) is an effective approach if the set of conditioning variables is properly chosen. Here we consider two different strategies (based either on informational content for the candidate driver or on selecting the variables with highest pairwise influences) for PCGC and show that, depending on the data structure, either one or the other might be equally valid. On the other hand, we observe that fully conditioned approaches do not work well in the presence of redundancy, thus suggesting the strategy of separating the pairwise links in two subsets: those corresponding to indirect connections of the CGC (which should thus be excluded) and links that can be ascribed to redundancy effects and, together with the results from the fully connected approach, provide a better description of the causality pattern in the presence of redundancy. Finally we apply these methods to two different real datasets. First, analyzing electrophysiological data from an epileptic brain, we show that synergetic effects are dominant just before seizure occurrences. Second, our analysis applied to gene expression time series from HeLa culture shows that the underlying regulatory networks are characterized by both redundancy and synergy. (paper)

  8. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Resting-state brain networks revealed by granger causal connectivity in frogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Fei; Fang, Guangzhan; Yue, Xizi; Zhao, Ermi; Brauth, Steven E; Tang, Yezhong

    2016-10-15

    Resting-state networks (RSNs) refer to the spontaneous brain activity generated under resting conditions, which maintain the dynamic connectivity of functional brain networks for automatic perception or higher order cognitive functions. Here, Granger causal connectivity analysis (GCCA) was used to explore brain RSNs in the music frog (Babina daunchina) during different behavioral activity phases. The results reveal that a causal network in the frog brain can be identified during the resting state which reflects both brain lateralization and sexual dimorphism. Specifically (1) ascending causal connections from the left mesencephalon to both sides of the telencephalon are significantly higher than those from the right mesencephalon, while the right telencephalon gives rise to the strongest efferent projections among all brain regions; (2) causal connections from the left mesencephalon in females are significantly higher than those in males and (3) these connections are similar during both the high and low behavioral activity phases in this species although almost all electroencephalograph (EEG) spectral bands showed higher power in the high activity phase for all nodes. The functional features of this network match important characteristics of auditory perception in this species. Thus we propose that this causal network maintains auditory perception during the resting state for unexpected auditory inputs as resting-state networks do in other species. These results are also consistent with the idea that females are more sensitive to auditory stimuli than males during the reproductive season. In addition, these results imply that even when not behaviorally active, the frogs remain vigilant for detecting external stimuli. Copyright © 2016 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Kant on causal laws and powers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henschen, Tobias

    2014-12-01

    The aim of the paper is threefold. Its first aim is to defend Eric Watkins's claim that for Kant, a cause is not an event but a causal power: a power that is borne by a substance, and that, when active, brings about its effect, i.e. a change of the states of another substance, by generating a continuous flow of intermediate states of that substance. The second aim of the paper is to argue against Watkins that the Kantian concept of causal power is not the pre-critical concept of real ground but the category of causality, and that Kant holds with Hume that causal laws cannot be inferred non-inductively (that he accordingly has no intention to show in the Second analogy or elsewhere that events fall under causal laws). The third aim of the paper is to compare the Kantian position on causality with central tenets of contemporary powers ontology: it argues that unlike the variants endorsed by contemporary powers theorists, the Kantian variants of these tenets are resistant to objections that neo-Humeans raise to these tenets.

  11. Tensor products of process matrices with indefinite causal structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Ding; Sakharwade, Nitica

    2018-03-01

    Theories with indefinite causal structure have been studied from both the fundamental perspective of quantum gravity and the practical perspective of information processing. In this paper we point out a restriction in forming tensor products of objects with indefinite causal structure in certain models: there exist both classical and quantum objects the tensor products of which violate the normalization condition of probabilities, if all local operations are allowed. We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for when such unrestricted tensor products of multipartite objects are (in)valid. This poses a challenge to extending communication theory to indefinite causal structures, as the tensor product is the fundamental ingredient in the asymptotic setting of communication theory. We discuss a few options to evade this issue. In particular, we show that the sequential asymptotic setting does not suffer the violation of normalization.

  12. Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Chang, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Major limitations of the conventional methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), particularly those developed for operator response analysis in probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) of nuclear power plants, are summarized as a motivation for the need and a basis for developing requirements for the next generation HRA methods. It is argued that a model-based approach that provides explicit cognitive causal links between operator behaviors and directly or indirectly measurable causal factors should be at the core of the advanced methods. An example of such causal model is briefly reviewed, where due to the model complexity and input requirements can only be currently implemented in a dynamic PSA environment. The computer simulation code developed for this purpose is also described briefly, together with current limitations in the models, data, and the computer implementation

  13. Verification of causal influences of reasoning skills and epistemology on physics conceptual learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Ding

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to test the causal influences of reasoning skills and epistemologies on student conceptual learning in physics. A causal model, integrating multiple variables that were investigated separately in the prior literature, is proposed and tested through path analysis. These variables include student preinstructional reasoning skills measured by the Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning, pre- and postepistemological views measured by the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey, and pre- and postperformance on Newtonian concepts measured by the Force Concept Inventory. Students from a traditionally taught calculus-based introductory mechanics course at a research university participated in the study. Results largely support the postulated causal model and reveal strong influences of reasoning skills and preinstructional epistemology on student conceptual learning gains. Interestingly enough, postinstructional epistemology does not appear to have a significant influence on student learning gains. Moreover, pre- and postinstructional epistemology, although barely different from each other on average, have little causal connection between them.

  14. An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

  15. Testing the Causal Links between School Climate, School Violence, and School Academic Performance: A Cross-Lagged Panel Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbenishty, Rami; Astor, Ron Avi; Roziner, Ilan; Wrabel, Stephani L.

    2016-01-01

    The present study explores the causal link between school climate, school violence, and a school's general academic performance over time using a school-level, cross-lagged panel autoregressive modeling design. We hypothesized that reductions in school violence and climate improvement would lead to schools' overall improved academic performance.…

  16. Understanding and Managing Causality of Change in Socio-Technical Systems 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-06

    influence, and (4) management and control. The questions are listed below. Dynamics and Context  What can be learned from patterns of causal...has proven to be an insufficient method to determine existence of behavioral and performance patterns . Cognitive work analysis, on the other hand...to provide a point of comparison, including Victorian bushfires, Queensland and Victorian floods, and the mine collapse in Chile. Privacy, Threats

  17. Mixed Causal-Noncausal Autoregressions with Strictly Exogenous Regressors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hecq, Alain; Issler, J.V.; Telg, Sean

    2017-01-01

    The mixed autoregressive causal-noncausal model (MAR) has been proposed to estimate economic relationships involving explosive roots in their autoregressive part, as they have stationary forward solutions. In previous work, possible exogenous variables in economic relationships are substituted into

  18. Repair of Partly Misspecified Causal Diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oates, Chris J; Kasza, Jessica; Simpson, Julie A; Forbes, Andrew B

    2017-07-01

    Errors in causal diagrams elicited from experts can lead to the omission of important confounding variables from adjustment sets and render causal inferences invalid. In this report, a novel method is presented that repairs a misspecified causal diagram through the addition of edges. These edges are determined using a data-driven approach designed to provide improved statistical efficiency relative to de novo structure learning methods. Our main assumption is that the expert is "directionally informed," meaning that "false" edges provided by the expert would not create cycles if added to the "true" causal diagram. The overall procedure is cast as a preprocessing technique that is agnostic to subsequent causal inferences. Results based on simulated data and data derived from an observational cohort illustrate the potential for data-assisted elicitation in epidemiologic applications. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B208.

  19. Modelling the impact of mining on socio-economic infrastructure development: a system dynamics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maluleke, George

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human’s ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage.

  20. Review of various dynamic modeling methods and development of an intuitive modeling method for dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables

  1. Representing Causality and Reasoning about Controllability of Multi-level Flow-Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Lind, Morten

    2010-01-01

    Safe operation of complex processes requires that operators maintain situational-awareness even in highly automated environments. Automatic reasoning can support operators as well as the automation system itself to react effectively and appropriately to disturbances. However, knowledge......-based reasoning about control situations remains a challenge due to the entanglement of process and control systems that co-establish the intended causal structure of a process. Due to this entanglement, reasoning about such systems depends on a coherent representation of control and process. This paper explains...... modeling of controlled processes with multilevelflow models and proposes a new framework for modeling causal influence in multilevel flow models on the basis of a flow/potential analogy. The results are illustrated on examples from the domain of electric power systems....

  2. Causal Analysis to a Subway Accident: A Comparison of STAMP and RAIB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Yao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident investigation and analysis after the accident, vital to prevent the occurrence of similar accident and improve the safety of the system. Different methods led to a different understanding of the accident. In this paper, a subway accident was analysed with a systemic accident analysis model – STAMP (System-Theoretic Accident Modelling and Processes. The hierarchical safety control structure was obtained, and the system-level safety constraints were obtained, controllers of the physical layer were analysed one by one, and put forward the relevant safety requirements and constraints, the dynamic analysis of the structure of the safety control is carried out, and the targeted recommendations are pointed out. In comparison with the analysis results obtained by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB. Some useful findings have been concluded. STAMP treats safety as a control problem and reduces or eliminates causes of the accident from the controlling perspective. Whereas RAIB obtains causes of the accident by analysing the sequence of events related to the accident and reasons of these events, then chooses one(or moreevent(s as the immediate cause and some of the key events as causal factors. RAIB analysis is based on the sequential event models, but STAMP analysis provides us with a holistic, dynamic way to control system to maintain safety.

  3. Functional equations with causal operators

    CERN Document Server

    Corduneanu, C

    2003-01-01

    Functional equations encompass most of the equations used in applied science and engineering: ordinary differential equations, integral equations of the Volterra type, equations with delayed argument, and integro-differential equations of the Volterra type. The basic theory of functional equations includes functional differential equations with causal operators. Functional Equations with Causal Operators explains the connection between equations with causal operators and the classical types of functional equations encountered by mathematicians and engineers. It details the fundamentals of linear equations and stability theory and provides several applications and examples.

  4. Modelling the impact of causal and non-causal factors on disruption duration for Toronto's subway system: An exploratory investigation using hazard modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, Jacob; Shalaby, Amer; Habib, Khandker Nurul

    2017-01-01

    Most investigations of incident-related delay duration in the transportation context are restricted to highway traffic, with little attention given to delays due to transit service disruptions. Studies of transit-based delay duration are also considerably less comprehensive than their highway counterparts with respect to examining the effects of non-causal variables on the delay duration. However, delays due to incidents in public transit service can have serious consequences on the overall urban transportation system due to the pivotal and vital role of public transit. The ability to predict the durations of various types of transit system incidents is indispensable for better management and mitigation of service disruptions. This paper presents a detailed investigation on incident delay durations in Toronto's subway system over the year 2013, focusing on the effects of the incidents' location and time, the train-type involved, and the non-adherence to proper recovery procedures. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard models are estimated to investigate the relationship between these factors and the resulting delay duration. The empirical investigation reveals that incident types that impact both safety and operations simultaneously generally have longer expected delays than incident types that impact either safety or operations alone. Incidents at interchange stations are cleared faster than incidents at non-interchange stations. Incidents during peak periods have nearly the same delay durations as off-peak incidents. The estimated models are believed to be useful tools in predicting the relative magnitude of incident delay duration for better management of subway operations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  6. Diagnosing the Dynamics of Observed and Simulated Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity with Time Causal Information Theory Quantifiers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Sippel

    Full Text Available Data analysis and model-data comparisons in the environmental sciences require diagnostic measures that quantify time series dynamics and structure, and are robust to noise in observational data. This paper investigates the temporal dynamics of environmental time series using measures quantifying their information content and complexity. The measures are used to classify natural processes on one hand, and to compare models with observations on the other. The present analysis focuses on the global carbon cycle as an area of research in which model-data integration and comparisons are key to improving our understanding of natural phenomena. We investigate the dynamics of observed and simulated time series of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP, a key variable in terrestrial ecosystems that quantifies ecosystem carbon uptake. However, the dynamics, patterns and magnitudes of GPP time series, both observed and simulated, vary substantially on different temporal and spatial scales. We demonstrate here that information content and complexity, or Information Theory Quantifiers (ITQ for short, serve as robust and efficient data-analytical and model benchmarking tools for evaluating the temporal structure and dynamical properties of simulated or observed time series at various spatial scales. At continental scale, we compare GPP time series simulated with two models and an observations-based product. This analysis reveals qualitative differences between model evaluation based on ITQ compared to traditional model performance metrics, indicating that good model performance in terms of absolute or relative error does not imply that the dynamics of the observations is captured well. Furthermore, we show, using an ensemble of site-scale measurements obtained from the FLUXNET archive in the Mediterranean, that model-data or model-model mismatches as indicated by ITQ can be attributed to and interpreted as differences in the temporal structure of the respective

  7. Causal model of safety-checking action of the staff of nuclear power plants and the organization climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, Hirokazu; Yoshida, Michio; Yamaura, Kazuho

    2000-01-01

    For those who run an organization, it is critical to identify the causal relationship between the organization's characteristics and the safety-checking action of its staff, in order to effectively implement activities for promoting safety. In this research. a causal model of the safety-checking action was developed and factors affecting it were studied. A questionnaire survey, which includes safety awareness, attitude toward safety, safety culture and others, was conducted at three nuclear power plants and eight factors were extracted by means of factor analysis of the questionnaire items. The extracted eight interrelated factors were as follows: work norm, supervisory action, interest in training, recognition of importance, safety-checking action, the subject of safety, knowledge/skills, and the attitude of an organization. Among them, seven factors except the recognition of importance were defined as latent variables and a causal model of safety-checking action was constructed. By means of covariance structure analysis, it was found that the three factors: the attitude of an organization, supervisory action and the subject of safety, have a significant effect on the safety-checking action. Moreover, it was also studied that workplaces in which these three factors are highly regarded form social environment where safety-checking action is fully supported by the workplace as a whole, while workplaces in which these three factors are poorly regarded do not fully form social environment where safety-checking action is supported. Therefore, the workplaces form an organizational environment where safety-checking action tends to depend strongly upon the knowledge or skills of individuals. On top of these, it was noted that the attitude of an organization and supervisory action are important factors that serve as the first trigger affecting the formation of the organizational climate for safety. (author)

  8. Causal model of safety-checking action of the staff of nuclear power plants and the organization climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fukui, Hirokazu [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Seika, Kyoto (Japan); Yoshida, Michio; Yamaura, Kazuho [Japan Institute for Group Dynamics, Fukuoka (Japan)

    2000-09-01

    For those who run an organization, it is critical to identify the causal relationship between the organization's characteristics and the safety-checking action of its staff, in order to effectively implement activities for promoting safety. In this research. a causal model of the safety-checking action was developed and factors affecting it were studied. A questionnaire survey, which includes safety awareness, attitude toward safety, safety culture and others, was conducted at three nuclear power plants and eight factors were extracted by means of factor analysis of the questionnaire items. The extracted eight interrelated factors were as follows: work norm, supervisory action, interest in training, recognition of importance, safety-checking action, the subject of safety, knowledge/skills, and the attitude of an organization. Among them, seven factors except the recognition of importance were defined as latent variables and a causal model of safety-checking action was constructed. By means of covariance structure analysis, it was found that the three factors: the attitude of an organization, supervisory action and the subject of safety, have a significant effect on the safety-checking action. Moreover, it was also studied that workplaces in which these three factors are highly regarded form social environment where safety-checking action is fully supported by the workplace as a whole, while workplaces in which these three factors are poorly regarded do not fully form social environment where safety-checking action is supported. Therefore, the workplaces form an organizational environment where safety-checking action tends to depend strongly upon the knowledge or skills of individuals. On top of these, it was noted that the attitude of an organization and supervisory action are important factors that serve as the first trigger affecting the formation of the organizational climate for safety. (author)

  9. Generalized causal mediation and path analysis: Extensions and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Jeffrey M; Cho, Jang Ik; Liu, Yiying; Nelson, Suchitra

    2018-01-01

    Causal mediation analysis seeks to decompose the effect of a treatment or exposure among multiple possible paths and provide casually interpretable path-specific effect estimates. Recent advances have extended causal mediation analysis to situations with a sequence of mediators or multiple contemporaneous mediators. However, available methods still have limitations, and computational and other challenges remain. The present paper provides an extended causal mediation and path analysis methodology. The new method, implemented in the new R package, gmediation (described in a companion paper), accommodates both a sequence (two stages) of mediators and multiple mediators at each stage, and allows for multiple types of outcomes following generalized linear models. The methodology can also handle unsaturated models and clustered data. Addressing other practical issues, we provide new guidelines for the choice of a decomposition, and for the choice of a reference group multiplier for the reduction of Monte Carlo error in mediation formula computations. The new method is applied to data from a cohort study to illuminate the contribution of alternative biological and behavioral paths in the effect of socioeconomic status on dental caries in adolescence.

  10. Causality, spin, and equal-time commutators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Rahman, A.M.

    1975-01-01

    We study the causality constraints on the structure of the Lorentz-antisymmetric component of the commutator of two conserved isovector currents between fermion states of equal momenta. We discuss the sum rules that follow from causality and scaling, using the recently introduced refined infinite-momentum technique. The complete set of sum rules is found to include the spin-dependent fixed-mass sum rules obtained from light-cone commutators. The causality and scaling restrictions on the structure of the electromagnetic equal-time commutators are discussed, and it is found, in particular, that causality requires the spin-dependent part of the matrix element for the time-space electromagnetic equal-time commutator to vanish identically. It is also shown, in comparison with the electromagnetic case, that the corresponding matrix element for the time-space isovector current equal-time commutator is required, by causality, to have isospin-antisymmetric tensor and scalar operator Schwinger terms

  11. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  12. DYNAMICS OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN RELATION TO STOCK MARKET: A VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Shahadath Hossain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In Bangladesh, primary and secondary mutual fund markets behave in a completely different way, where initial public offering (IPO investors of mutual funds earn more than 250 percent rerun, whereas secondary market investors cannot even manage to cover the opportunity cost of their investment. There are few other abnormalities present in this market – unlike everywhere in the world, most of the mutual funds are closed-end (92 percent and closed-end mutual funds are barred to issue bonus or right shares. A total of 714 day’s observations, from January 2008 to December 2010, of four variables– DSE (Dhaka Stock Exchange general index return, DSE general index turnover, mutual funds’ return and mutual funds’ turnover– are utilized. Stationarity of the variables are tested with Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF unit root test and found that variables are in different order of integration. Long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables are tested with Johansen cointegration and it is found that DSE general index return and mutual funds’ return are cointegrated. Toda-Yamamoto (TY version of granger non-causality test is employed and bidirectional causality is found moving from DSE (Dhaka Stock Exchange general index turnover to DSE general index return, whereas unidirectional causality is found moving from mutual fund’s return to DSE general index return, mutual funds’ return to mutual funds turnover, and DSE general index turnover to mutual funds turnover. This finding helps to conclude that equity shares’ demand drives the mutual funds demand but even higher demand of mutual funds fails to raise its own price unless underlying value of the mutual funds changes.

  13. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  14. Model of the Russian Federation Construction Innovation System: An Integrated Participatory Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliya Suprun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This research integrates systemic and participatory techniques to model the Russian Federation construction innovation system. Understanding this complex construction innovation system and determining the best levers for enhancing it require the dynamic modelling of a number of factors, such as flows of resources and activities, policies, uncertainty and time. To build the foundations for such a dynamic model, the employed study method utilised an integrated stakeholder-based participatory approach coupled with structural analysis (MICMAC—Matrice d'Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement Cross-Impact Matrix. This method identified the key factors of the Russian Federation construction innovation system, their causal relationship (i.e., influence/dependence map and, ultimately, a causal loop diagram. The generated model reveals pathways to improving construction innovation in the Russian Federation and underpins the future development of an operationalised system dynamics model.

  15. Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. S.

    2017-12-01

    Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

  16. K-causality and degenerate spacetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowker, H. F.; Garcia, R. S.; Surya, S.

    2000-11-01

    The causal relation K+ was introduced by Sorkin and Woolgar to extend the standard causal analysis of C2 spacetimes to those that are only C0. Most of their results also hold true in the case of metrics with degeneracies which are C0 but vanish at isolated points. In this paper we seek to examine K+ explicitly in the case of topology-changing `Morse histories' which contain degeneracies. We first demonstrate some interesting features of this relation in globally Lorentzian spacetimes. In particular, we show that K+ is robust and the Hawking and Sachs characterization of causal continuity translates into a natural condition in terms of K+. We then examine K+ in topology-changing Morse spacetimes with the degenerate points excised and then for the Morse histories in which the degenerate points are reinstated. We find further characterizations of causal continuity in these cases.

  17. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

  18. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Cunlu; Ladroue, Christophe; Guo, Shuixia; Feng, Jianfeng

    2010-06-21

    Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE), Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins). For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  19. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Shuixia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE, Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Results Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins. For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. Conclusions The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  20. A causal model to evaluate the influence of consumer's perceptions of online shopping on their shopping behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Asakawa, Masami; Okano, Masao

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the factors influencing consumers' perception of online shopping and developed a causal model that explains how this perception affects their online-shopping behavior. We administered a questionnaire survey to 297 college students. By utilizing the answers to 13 questions pertaining to consumer perceptions, we conducted a factor analysis that identified the following three factors: "convenience", "anxiety regarding security" and "poor navigation". On the basis of this resu...

  1. Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castrigiano, Domenico P. L.; Leiseifer, Andreas D.

    2015-07-01

    Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac's localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

  2. Understanding and Managing Causality of Change in Socio-Technical Systems II

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-25

    leaders.  Dynamics & Context What can be learned from underlying patterns of causal relationships: i.e. tipping points, pinball effects, etc... Patterns of Life for detection of anomalous behavior from direct and indirect sensing data feeds. He received his PhD and MS in Information and Computer...Predictive capabilities 13 Ian Freckelton Ian Freckelton is a Senior Counsel in full-time practice at the Victorian Bar. Much of his advocacy work

  3. Confounding effects of phase delays on causality estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasily A Vakorin

    Full Text Available Linear and non-linear techniques for inferring causal relations between the brain signals representing the underlying neuronal systems have become a powerful tool to extract the connectivity patterns in the brain. Typically these tools employ the idea of Granger causality, which is ultimately based on the temporal precedence between the signals. At the same time, phase synchronization between coupled neural ensembles is considered a mechanism implemented in the brain to integrate relevant neuronal ensembles to perform a cognitive or perceptual task. Phase synchronization can be studied by analyzing the effects of phase-locking between the brain signals. However, we should expect that there is no one-to-one mapping between the observed phase lag and the time precedence as specified by physically interacting systems. Specifically, phase lag observed between two signals may interfere with inferring causal relations. This could be of critical importance for the coupled non-linear oscillating systems, with possible time delays in coupling, when classical linear cross-spectrum strategies for solving phase ambiguity are not efficient. To demonstrate this, we used a prototypical model of coupled non-linear systems, and compared three typical pipelines of inferring Granger causality, as established in the literature. Specifically, we compared the performance of the spectral and information-theoretic Granger pipelines as well as standard Granger causality in their relations to the observed phase differences for frequencies at which the signals become synchronized to each other. We found that an information-theoretic approach, which takes into account different time lags between the past of one signal and the future of another signal, was the most robust to phase effects.

  4. Causality, transfer entropy, and allosteric communication landscapes in proteins with harmonic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacisuleyman, Aysima; Erman, Burak

    2017-06-01

    A fast and approximate method of generating allosteric communication landscapes in proteins is presented by using Schreiber's entropy transfer concept in combination with the Gaussian Network Model of proteins. Predictions of the model and the allosteric communication landscapes generated show that information transfer in proteins does not necessarily take place along a single path, but an ensemble of pathways is possible. The model emphasizes that knowledge of entropy only is not sufficient for determining allosteric communication and additional information based on time delayed correlations should be introduced, which leads to the presence of causality in proteins. The model provides a simple tool for mapping entropy sink-source relations into pairs of residues. By this approach, residues that should be manipulated to control protein activity may be determined. This should be of great importance for allosteric drug design and for understanding the effects of mutations on function. The model is applied to determine allosteric communication in three proteins, Ubiquitin, Pyruvate Kinase, and the PDZ domain. Predictions are in agreement with molecular dynamics simulations and experimental evidence. Proteins 2017; 85:1056-1064. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, a large number of practical systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete modes of behavior, each defined by a set of continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task very challenging. In this work, we present a new modeling and diagnosis framework for hybrid systems. Models are composed from sets of user-defined components using a compositional modeling approach. Submodels for residual generation are then generated for a given mode, and reconfigured efficiently when the mode changes. Efficient reconfiguration is established by exploiting causality information within the hybrid system models. The submodels can then be used for fault diagnosis based on residual generation and analysis. We demonstrate the efficient causality reassignment, submodel reconfiguration, and residual generation for fault diagnosis using an electrical circuit case study.

  6. Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

    2003-06-01

    Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

  7. System dynamics to model the unintended consequences of denying payment for venous thromboembolism after total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worni, Mathias; Pietrobon, Ricardo; Zammar, Guilherme Roberto; Shah, Jatin; Yoo, Bryan; Maldonato, Mauro; Takemoto, Steven; Vail, Thomas P

    2012-01-01

    The Hospital Acquired Condition Strategy (HACS) denies payment for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The intention is to reduce complications and associated costs, while improving the quality of care by mandating VTE prophylaxis. We applied a system dynamics model to estimate the impact of HACS on VTE rates, and potential unintended consequences such as increased rates of bleeding and infection and decreased access for patients who might benefit from TKA. The system dynamics model uses a series of patient stocks including the number needing TKA, deemed ineligible, receiving TKA, and harmed due to surgical complication. The flow of patients between stocks is determined by a series of causal elements such as rates of exclusion, surgery and complications. The number of patients harmed due to VTE, bleeding or exclusion were modeled by year by comparing patient stocks that results in scenarios with and without HACS. The percentage of TKA patients experiencing VTE decreased approximately 3-fold with HACS. This decrease in VTE was offset by an increased rate of bleeding and infection. Moreover, results from the model suggest HACS could exclude 1.5% or half a million patients who might benefit from knee replacement through 2020. System dynamics modeling indicates HACS will have the intended consequence of reducing VTE rates. However, an unintended consequence of the policy might be increased potential harm resulting from over administration of prophylaxis, as well as exclusion of a large population of patients who might benefit from TKA.

  8. Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2017-01-01

    Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will

  9. [The dual process model of addiction. Towards an integrated model?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandermeeren, R; Hebbrecht, M

    2012-01-01

    Neurobiology and cognitive psychology have provided us with a dual process model of addiction. According to this model, behavior is considered to be the dynamic result of a combination of automatic and controlling processes. In cases of addiction the balance between these two processes is severely disturbed. Automated processes will continue to produce impulses that ensure the continuance of addictive behavior. Weak, reflective or controlling processes are both the reason for and the result of the inability to forgo addiction. To identify features that are common to current neurocognitive insights into addiction and psychodynamic views on addiction. The picture that emerges from research is not clear. There is some evidence that attentional bias has a causal effect on addiction. There is no evidence that automatic associations have a causal effect, but there is some evidence that automatic action-tendencies do have a causal effect. Current neurocognitive views on the dual process model of addiction can be integrated with an evidence-based approach to addiction and with psychodynamic views on addiction.

  10. Causality relation between the producer price index and the consumer price index. Ecuador Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Quinde Rosales

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The present document is an investigation with a type of inductive reasoning. It evaluated the relationship of causality between the producer price index (IPP, and the consumer price index (IPC in a period from January 1998 to December 2016. The unit root test Dickey-Fuller Augmented (DFA was used under an empirical- analytic paradigm, an autoregressive vector-VAR model was generated and the Granger causality test was performed. The results show a positive trend and seasonality in the data of the variables, a VAR model of two variables was obtained with a number of optimal remnants of fourteen VAR2 (14 to which the causality test was performed, demonstrating a bi - directionality of both indices.

  11. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  12. A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks. PMID:29529092

  13. A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N; Pantelous, Athanasios A; Zuev, Konstantin M

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks.

  14. Presenting the students’ academic achievement causal model based on goal orientation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EBRAHIM NASIRI

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Several factors play a role in academic achievement, individual’s excellence and capability to do actions and tasks that the learner is in charge of in learning areas. The main goal of this study was to present academic achievement causal model based on the dimensions of goal orientation and learning approaches among the students of Medical Science and Dentistry courses in Guilan University of Medical Sciences in 2013. Methods: This study is based on a cross-sectional model. The participants included 175 first and second year students of the Medical and Dentistry schools in Guilan University of Medical Sciences selected by random cluster sampling [121 persons (69% Medical Basic Science students and 54 (30.9% Dentistry students]. The measurement tool included the Goal Orientation Scale of Bouffard and Study Process Questionnaire of Biggs and the students’ Grade Point Average. The study data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and structural equations modeling. SPSS 14 and Amos were used to analyze the data. Results: The results indicated a significant relationship between goal orientation and learning strategies (P<0.05. In addition, the results revealed that a significant relationship exists between learning strategies [Deep Learning (r=0.37, P<0.05, Surface Learning (r=-0.21, P<0.05], and academic achievement. The suggested model of research is fitted to the data of the research. Conclusion: Results showed that the students’ academic achievement model fits with experimental data, so it can be used in learning principles which lead to students’ achievement in learning.

  15. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...

  16. Understanding the dynamic effects of returning patients toward emergency department density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Norazura; Zulkepli, Jafri; Ramli, Razamin; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Teo, Aik Howe

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents the development of a dynamic hypothesis for the effect of returning patients to the emergency department (ED). A logical tree from the Theory of Constraint known as Current Reality Tree was used to identify the key variables. Then, a hypothetical framework portraying the interrelated variables and its influencing relationships was developed using causal loop diagrams (CLD). The conceptual framework was designed as the basis for the development of a system dynamics model.

  17. Stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series: Power, coherence, Granger causality, and separation of evoked responses from ongoing activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yonghong; Bressler, Steven L.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Truccolo, Wilson A.; Ding, Mingzhou

    2006-06-01

    In this article we consider the stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series from cognitive experiments. Our starting point is the variable-signal-plus-ongoing-activity model. From this model a differentially variable component analysis strategy is developed from a Bayesian perspective to estimate event-related signals on a single trial basis. After subtracting out the event-related signal from recorded single trial time series, the residual ongoing activity is treated as a piecewise stationary stochastic process and analyzed by an adaptive multivariate autoregressive modeling strategy which yields power, coherence, and Granger causality spectra. Results from applying these methods to local field potential recordings from monkeys performing cognitive tasks are presented.

  18. Causality, Randomness, Intelligibility, and the Epistemology of the Cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Edward R; Bittner, Michael L

    2010-01-01

    Because the basic unit of biology is the cell, biological knowledge is rooted in the epistemology of the cell, and because life is the salient characteristic of the cell, its epistemology must be centered on its livingness, not its constituent components. The organization and regulation of these components in the pursuit of life constitute the fundamental nature of the cell. Thus, regulation sits at the heart of biological knowledge of the cell and the extraordinary complexity of this regulation conditions the kind of knowledge that can be obtained, in particular, the representation and intelligibility of that knowledge. This paper is essentially split into two parts. The first part discusses the inadequacy of everyday intelligibility and intuition in science and the consequent need for scientific theories to be expressed mathematically without appeal to commonsense categories of understanding, such as causality. Having set the backdrop, the second part addresses biological knowledge. It briefly reviews modern scientific epistemology from a general perspective and then turns to the epistemology of the cell. In analogy with a multi-faceted factory, the cell utilizes a highly parallel distributed control system to maintain its organization and regulate its dynamical operation in the face of both internal and external changes. Hence, scientific knowledge is constituted by the mathematics of stochastic dynamical systems, which model the overall relational structure of the cell and how these structures evolve over time, stochasticity being a consequence of the need to ignore a large number of factors while modeling relatively few in an extremely complex environment. PMID:21119887

  19. Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

  20. Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; Smyth, Russell

    2010-01-01

    This paper employs annual data for Malaysia from 1970 to 2008 to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, electricity generation, exports and prices in a multivariate model. We find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity generation. However, neither the export-led nor handmaiden theories of trade are supported and there is no causal relationship between prices and economic growth. The policy implication of this result is that electricity conservation policies, including efficiency improvement measures and demand management policies, which are designed to reduce the wastage of electricity and curtail generation can be implemented without having an adverse effect on Malaysia's economic growth. (author)