A strain-, cow-, and herd-speciÞc bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gussmann, Maya Katrin; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Græsbøll, Kaare

2018-01-01

Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can...... various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive...

FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Louhichi, K.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Flichman, G.; Blanco, M.; Hengsdijk, H.; Heckelei, T.; Berentsen, P.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2010-01-01

The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of

BioModels: Content, Features, Functionality, and Use

Science.gov (United States)

Juty, N; Ali, R; Glont, M; Keating, S; Rodriguez, N; Swat, MJ; Wimalaratne, SM; Hermjakob, H; Le Novère, N; Laibe, C; Chelliah, V

2015-01-01

BioModels is a reference repository hosting mathematical models that describe the dynamic interactions of biological components at various scales. The resource provides access to over 1,200 models described in literature and over 140,000 models automatically generated from pathway resources. Most model components are cross-linked with external resources to facilitate interoperability. A large proportion of models are manually curated to ensure reproducibility of simulation results. This tutorial presents BioModels' content, features, functionality, and usage. PMID:26225232

Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

2010-07-01

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

Techno-economic performance analysis of bio-oil based Fischer-Tropsch and CHP synthesis platform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ng, Kok Siew; Sadhukhan, Jhuma

2011-01-01

The techno-economic potential of the UK poplar wood and imported oil palm empty fruit bunch derived bio-oil integrated gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (BOIG-FT) systems for the generation of transportation fuels and combined heat and power (CHP) was investigated. The bio-oil was represented in terms of main chemical constituents, i.e. acetic acid, acetol and guaiacol. The compositional model of bio-oil was validated based on its performance through a gasification process. Given the availability of large scale gasification and FT technologies and logistic constraints in transporting biomass in large quantities, distributed bio-oil generations using biomass pyrolysis and centralised bio-oil processing in BOIG-FT system are technically more feasible. Heat integration heuristics and composite curve analysis were employed for once-through and full conversion configurations, and for a range of economies of scale, 1 MW, 675 MW and 1350 MW LHV of bio-oil. The economic competitiveness increases with increasing scale. A cost of production of FT liquids of 78.7 Euro/MWh was obtained based on 80.12 Euro/MWh of electricity, 75 Euro/t of bio-oil and 116.3 million Euro/y of annualised capital cost. -- Highlights: → Biomass to liquid process and gas to liquid process synthesis. → Biorefinery economic analysis. → Pyrolysis oil to biofuel. → Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch. → Process integration, pinch analysis and energy efficiency.

System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivona Milić Beran

2015-10-01

Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nobre, AM

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

Unsteady bio-fluid dynamics in flying and swimming

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Hao; Kolomenskiy, Dmitry; Nakata, Toshiyuki; Li, Gen

2017-08-01

Flying and swimming in nature present sophisticated and exciting ventures in biomimetics, which seeks sustainable solutions and solves practical problems by emulating nature's time-tested patterns, functions, and strategies. Bio-fluids in insect and bird flight, as well as in fish swimming are highly dynamic and unsteady; however, they have been studied mostly with a focus on the phenomena associated with a body or wings moving in a steady flow. Characterized by unsteady wing flapping and body undulation, fluid-structure interactions, flexible wings and bodies, turbulent environments, and complex maneuver, bio-fluid dynamics normally have challenges associated with low Reynolds number regime and high unsteadiness in modeling and analysis of flow physics. In this article, we review and highlight recent advances in unsteady bio-fluid dynamics in terms of leading-edge vortices, passive mechanisms in flexible wings and hinges, flapping flight in unsteady environments, and micro-structured aerodynamics in flapping flight, as well as undulatory swimming, flapping-fin hydrodynamics, body-fin interaction, C-start and maneuvering, swimming in turbulence, collective swimming, and micro-structured hydrodynamics in swimming. We further give a perspective outlook on future challenges and tasks of several key issues of the field.

A Cow- and Herd-specific Bio-Economic Model of Intramammary Infections in Dairy Cows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Gussmann, Maya Katrin; Græsbøll, Kaare

Introduction. Mastitis, or intramammary infection (IMI), is one of the most significant diseases in dairy herds worldwide. It is caused by environmental and contagious bacteria. Simulation models have proven useful for evaluating the effect of different control strategies. However, previous...... published models are not cow-specific and therefore not so detailed in the simulation of host-pathogen interactions. If a simulation model is to be used by dairy farmers as a decision-making tool, it needs to be cow-specific because daily management decisions are made on cow level. Furthermore, as IMI......, contagious or mixed), the model should be able to reflect this diversity. Our objective was thus to create a pathogen-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model that could simulate multiple pathogens and strains at the same time within a dairy herd. This model should be able to simulate realistic...

BioModels Database: a repository of mathematical models of biological processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Laibe, Camille; Le Novère, Nicolas

2013-01-01

BioModels Database is a public online resource that allows storing and sharing of published, peer-reviewed quantitative, dynamic models of biological processes. The model components and behaviour are thoroughly checked to correspond the original publication and manually curated to ensure reliability. Furthermore, the model elements are annotated with terms from controlled vocabularies as well as linked to relevant external data resources. This greatly helps in model interpretation and reuse. Models are stored in SBML format, accepted in SBML and CellML formats, and are available for download in various other common formats such as BioPAX, Octave, SciLab, VCML, XPP and PDF, in addition to SBML. The reaction network diagram of the models is also available in several formats. BioModels Database features a search engine, which provides simple and more advanced searches. Features such as online simulation and creation of smaller models (submodels) from the selected model elements of a larger one are provided. BioModels Database can be accessed both via a web interface and programmatically via web services. New models are available in BioModels Database at regular releases, about every 4 months.

Bio-economic modelling to assess the impact of water pricing policies at the farm level in the Oum Zessar watershed, southern Tunisia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeder, H.; Sghaier, M.; Louhchi, P.; Reidsma, P.

2014-01-01

For integrated assessment at farm level, the Farm System SIMulator model (FSSIM) was used. FSSIM is a bio-economic model developed for the European context, and was adapted and tested for Tunisian conditions to assess, ex-ante, impacts of water pricing policies at the farm level to the year 2015.

The economic efficiency of conservation measures for amphibians in organic farming--results from bio-economic modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuler, Johannes; Sattler, Claudia; Helmecke, Angela; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Bachinger, Johann; Stein-Bachinger, Karin

2013-01-15

This paper presents a whole farm bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment and optimisation of amphibian conservation conditions applied at the example of a large scale organic farm in North-Eastern Germany. The assessment focuses mainly on the habitat quality as affected by conservation measures such as through specific adapted crop production activities (CPA) and in-field buffer strips for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), considering also interrelations with other amphibian species (i.e. common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus), fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina)). The aim of the approach is to understand, analyse and optimize the relationships between the ecological and economic performance of an organic farming system, based on the expectation that amphibians are differently impacted by different CPAs. The modelling system consists of a set of different sub-models that generate a farm model on the basis of environmentally evaluated CPAs. A crop-rotation sub-model provides a set of agronomically sustainable crop rotations that ensures overall sufficient nitrogen supply and controls weed, pest and disease infestations. An economic sub-model calculates the gross margins for each possible CPA including costs of inputs such as labour and machinery. The conservation effects of the CPAs are assessed with an ecological sub-model evaluates the potential negative or positive effect that each work step of a CPA has on amphibians. A mathematical programming sub-model calculates the optimal farm organization taking into account the limited factors of the farm (e.g. labour, land) as well as ecological improvements. In sequential model runs, the habitat quality is to be improved by the model, while the highest possible gross margin is still to be achieved. The results indicate that the model can be used to show the scope of action that a farmer has to improve habitat quality by reducing damage to amphibian population on its land during agricultural activities

Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yurii V.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

Bio-based Industries Joint Undertaking: The catalyst for sustainable bio-based economic growth in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengal, Philippe; Wubbolts, Marcel; Zika, Eleni; Ruiz, Ana; Brigitta, Dieter; Pieniadz, Agata; Black, Sarah

2018-01-25

This article discusses the preparation, structure and objectives of the Bio-based Industries Joint Undertaking (BBI JU). BBI JU is a public-private partnership (PPP) between the European Commission (EC) and the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC), the industry-led private not-for-profit organisation representing the private sectors across the bio-based industries. The model of the public-private partnership has been successful as a new approach to supporting research and innovation and de-risking investment in Europe. The BBI JU became a reality in 2014 and represents the largest industrial and economic cooperation endeavour financially ever undertaken in Europe in the area of industrial biotechnologies. It is considered to be one of the most forward-looking initiatives under Horizon 2020 and demonstrates the circular economy in action. The BBI JU will be the catalyst for this strategy to mobilise actors across Europe including large industry, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), all types of research organisations, networks and universities. It will support regions and in doing so, the European Union Member States and associated countries in the implementation of their bioeconomy strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technological Options to Ameliorate Waste Treatment of Intensive Pig Production in China：An Analysis Based on Bio-Economic Model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LU Wen-cong; MA Yong-xi; Holger Bergmann

2014-01-01

Ameliorating waste treatment by technological improvements affects the economic and the ecological-environment beneifts of intensive pig production. The objective of the research was to develop and test a method to determine the technical optimization to ameliorate waste treatment methods and gain insight into the relationship between technological options and the economic and ecological effects. We developed an integrated bio-economic model which incorporates the farming production and waste disposal systems to simulate the impact of technological improvements in pig manure treatment on economic and environmental benefits for the case of a pilot farm in Beijing, China. Based on different waste treatment technology options, three scenarios are applied for the simulation analysis of the model. The simulation results reveal that the economic-environmental beneifts of the livestock farm could be improved by reducing the cropland manure application and increasing the composting production with the current technologies. Nevertheless, the technical efifciency, the waste treatment capacity and the economic beneifts could be further improved by the introduction of new technologies. It implies that technological and economic support policies should be implemented comprehensively on waste disposal and resource utilization to promote sustainable development in intensive livestock production in China.

Environmental and economic sustainability of integrated production in bio-refineries : The thistle case in Sardinia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yazan, Devrim; Mandras, Giovanni; Garau, Giorgio

2016-01-01

This paper aims at evaluating the environmental and economic sustainability of bio-refineries that produce multiple products through their supply chains (SCs). A physical enterprise input-output (EIO) model is used to quantify the material/energy/waste flows and integrated to the monetary EIO model

Nonlinear economic dynamics and financial modelling: essays in honour of Carl Chiarella

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dieci, R.; He, X.Z.; Hommes, C.

2014-01-01

This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly

Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2013-01-01

In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

A techno-economic evaluation of two non-edible vegetable oil based bio diesel in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakrabarti, M.H.; Ali, M.

2010-01-01

Technical evaluation of Bio diesel, produced from various non-edible oils, was carried out on the basis of emission profile, torque, engine brake power and exhaust temperatures at 10% blend ratio (by volume) with mineral diesel. The performance of engine parameters showed that the castor oil based bio diesel gave the best results. Economic feasibility for bio diesel production was carried out based on available data on cultivation of necessary plants on marginal lands. This economic analysis also included the value of by-products which would be available during the chemical process for the production of bio diesel. It was found that jatropha bio diesel could be produced at a comparable cost to mineral diesel, however, castor bio diesel required substantial subsidies or mass cultivation of plants on marginal lands to enable it to compete economically with mineral diesel. (author)

Foreword to the Special Issue on "Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance"

Science.gov (United States)

Gardini, Laura; Kubin, Ingrid; Tramontana, Fabio; Wagener, Florian

2018-05-01

International workshops on Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance (MDEF) take place every two years in Urbino (Italy); since the inception of the series in 2000, there have been nine editions. The subject has become a central topic for scholars working on economic dynamics. In 2016 the workshop was held under the auspices of University of Urbino "Carlo Bo" , DESP1

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Jiming

1992-01-01

A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

A Bio-Inspired QoS-Oriented Handover Model in Heterogeneous Wireless Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daxin Tian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a bio-inspired model for making handover decision in heterogeneous wireless networks. It is based on an extended attractor selection model, which is biologically inspired by the self-adaptability and robustness of cellular response to the changes in dynamic environments. The goal of the proposed model is to guarantee multiple terminals’ satisfaction by meeting the QoS requirements of those terminals’ applications, and this model also attempts to ensure the fairness of network resources allocation, in the meanwhile, to enable the QoS-oriented handover decision adaptive to dynamic wireless environments. Some numerical simulations are preformed to validate our proposed bio-inspired model in terms of adaptive attractor selection in different noisy environments. And the results of some other simulations prove that the proposed handover scheme can adapt terminals’ network selection to the varying wireless environment and benefits the QoS of multiple terminal applications simultaneously and automatically. Furthermore, the comparative analysis also shows that the bio-inspired model outperforms the utility function based handover decision scheme in terms of ensuring a better QoS satisfaction and a better fairness of network resources allocation in dynamic heterogeneous wireless networks.

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

OpenAIRE

Zining Yang

2016-01-01

In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at...

Integrated micro-economic modelling and multi-criteria methodology to support public decision-making: the case of liquid bio-fuels in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozakis, S.; Sourie, J.-C.; Vanderpooten, D.

2001-01-01

Decision making to determine government support policy for agro-energy industry can be assisted by mathematical programming and Multiple Criteria procedures. In this case study, tax credit policy in the French bio-fuel industry producing ethanol and esters is determined. Micro-economic models simulate the agricultural sector and the bio-fuel industry through multi-level mixed integer linear programming. Aggregate supply of energy crops at the national level is estimated using a staircase model of 450 individual farm sub-models specialising in arable cropping. The government acts as a leader, since bio-fuel chains depend on subsidies. The model provides rational responses of the industry, taking into account of the energy crops' supply, to any public policy scheme (unitary tax exemptions for bio-fuels subject to budgetary constraints) as well as the performance of each response regarding total greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), budgetary expenditure and agents' surpluses. Budgetary, environmental and social concerns will affect policy decisions, and a multi-criteria optimisation module projects the decision maker aims at the closest feasible compromise solutions. When public expenditure is the first priority, the best compromise solution corresponds to tax exemptions of about 2 FF l -1 [FF: French Franc (1Euro equivalent to 6.559FF)] for ester and 3FF l -1 for ethanol (current tax exemptions amount at 2.30FF l -1 for ester and 3.30FF l -1 for ethanol). On the other hand, a priority on the reduction of GHG emissions requires an increase of ester volume produced at the expense of ethanol production (2.30 FF l -1 for both ester and ethanol chains proposed by the model). (Author)

Bio-based economy in the Netherlands. Macro-economic outline of a large-scale introduction of green resources in the Dutch energy supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Hoeven, D.

2009-03-01

The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. This is the public version of studies [nl

Understanding bio-economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Patel, M.K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/18988097X

2008-01-01

New plants for production of bio-based fuels, chemicals or plastics are being set up at an accelerating pace. However, this transition towards bio-based fuels, feedstocks and chemicals has not come without consequences. Increased demand has pushed up prices of key agricultural products such as maize

Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2014-01-01

Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current

Study on Evaporation Characteristics of Bio-oil and its Compound Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tan Long

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, bio-oil was analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS, and the evaporation characteristics of bio-oil were studied at different heating rates (10, 20, and 30 °C/min from 35 °C to 250 °C by a thermal analyzer (TG-DSC. The TG-DSC results of bio-oil showed that the heat requirement of bio-oil during the evaporation process ranged from 2.072103 to 2.299103 J/g, and the bio-oil activation energy ranged from 1.22×104 to 3.34×104 J/mol. Moreover, four models with five compounds (methanol, water, ethanol, furfural, and phenol were established to study the bio-oil evaporation process. By comparing the TG-DSC results of bio-oil and its models at 30 °C/min, it was shown that the optimal model was model 2, which has the following chemical composition: methanol (27.10 wt.%, water (44.96 wt.%, ethanol (16.24 wt.%, furfural (4.40 wt.%, and phenol (7.30 wt.%. Model 2 exhibited a minimal relative error in dynamic parameters and characteristic curve parameters. The errors for activation energy of the TG, activation energy of the DSC, maximum endothermic rates, and the total of the heat absorption were 3.04%, 5.88%, 2.49%, and 1.06%, respectively.

Integrated micro-economic modelling and multi-criteria methodology to support public decision-making: the case of liquid bio-fuels in France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rozakis, S.; Sourie, J.-C. [Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Economie et Sociologie Rurales, Thiveral-Grignon, 78 (France); Vanderpooten, D. [Universite Paris-Dauphine, LAMSADE, Paris, 75 (France)

2001-07-01

Decision making to determine government support policy for agro-energy industry can be assisted by mathematical programming and Multiple Criteria procedures. In this case study, tax credit policy in the French bio-fuel industry producing ethanol and esters is determined. Micro-economic models simulate the agricultural sector and the bio-fuel industry through multi-level mixed integer linear programming. Aggregate supply of energy crops at the national level is estimated using a staircase model of 450 individual farm sub-models specialising in arable cropping. The government acts as a leader, since bio-fuel chains depend on subsidies. The model provides rational responses of the industry, taking into account of the energy crops' supply, to any public policy scheme (unitary tax exemptions for bio-fuels subject to budgetary constraints) as well as the performance of each response regarding total greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), budgetary expenditure and agents' surpluses. Budgetary, environmental and social concerns will affect policy decisions, and a multi-criteria optimisation module projects the decision maker aims at the closest feasible compromise solutions. When public expenditure is the first priority, the best compromise solution corresponds to tax exemptions of about 2 FF l{sup -1} [FF: French Franc (1Euro equivalent to 6.559FF)] for ester and 3FF l{sup -1} for ethanol (current tax exemptions amount at 2.30FF l{sup -1} for ester and 3.30FF l{sup -1} for ethanol). On the other hand, a priority on the reduction of GHG emissions requires an increase of ester volume produced at the expense of ethanol production (2.30 FF l{sup -1} for both ester and ethanol chains proposed by the model). (Author)

Management of Water and Fertilizer Consumption Using Bio-Economic Approach: A Case Study of Irrigation and Drainage Dorudzan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheikhzeinoddin, A.; Esmaeili, A.; Zibaei, M.

2016-01-01

Today keep increasing the use of chemical fertilizer and water is an effort to improve yield, while overuse of fertilizer is making formerly arable land unusable but led to degrading the quality of water and serious problems for environmental. Hence, for accurate management, we require comprehensive and complete information on the economic and environmental impacts of different management methods. So, by using SWAT model were simulated the economic and environmental effects of each management strategies. Then, mathematical programming was used to determine the optimal cropping pattern subject to resources and environmental constraints in irrigation and Drainage Dorudzan. Based on the findings of this study, we can improve the economic and environmental benefits by moving from current status to economic or bio-economic pattern. Also, by moving from economic pattern to bio-economic pattern, 0.31 percent reduction of economic benefit is leading to improve nitrogen losses by 6.58 percent. In other words, we incur the cost equal to 64.5 thousand rials for reduction per kg nitrogen losses.

Charcoal injection in blast furnaces (Bio-PCI: CO2 reduction potential and economic prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristobal Feliciano-Bruzual

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The steel industry is under pressure to reduce its CO2 emissions, which arise from the use of coal. In the long-term, the injection of pulverized particles of charcoal from biomass through blast furnace tuyeres, in this case called Bio-PCI, is an attractive method from both an environmental and metallurgical viewpoint. The potential of Bio-PCI has been assessed in terms of its CO2 abatement potential and economic viewpoint. A cost objective function has been used to measure the impact of biochar substitution in highly fuel-efficient BF among the top nine hot metal producers; estimations are based on the relevant cost determinants of ironmaking. This contribution aims to shed light on two strategic questions: Under what conditions is the implementation of Bio-PCI economically attractive? Additionally, where is such a techno-economic innovation likely to be taken up the earliest? The results indicate the potential for an 18–40% mitigation of CO2. Findings from the economic assessment show that biochar cannot compete with fossil coal on price alone; therefore, a lower cost of biochar or the introduction of carbon taxes will be necessary to increase the competitiveness of Bio-PCI. Based on the current prices of raw materials, electricity and carbon taxes, biochar should be between 130.1 and 236.4 USD/t and carbon taxes should be between 47.1 and 198.7 USD/t CO2 to facilitate the substitution of Bio-PCI in the examined countries. In regard to implementation, Brazil, followed by India, China and the USA appeared to be in a better position to deploy Bio-PCI.

A bio-economic model to improve profitability in a large national beef cattle population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier López-Paredes

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A bio-economic model was developed for estimating economic values for use in improving profitability in a large national beef cattle population from birth to slaughter. Results were divided into fattening costs, production costs and income. Economic values were derived for 17 traits for two regions, mature weight (-0.43 € and -0.38 €/+1 kg of live weight, age at first calving (-0.13 € and -0.11 €/+1d, calving interval (-1.06 € and -1.02 €/+1d, age at last calving (0.03 € and 0.03 €/+1d, mortality 0-48 h (-5.86 € and -5.63 €/1% calves per cow and year, pre-weaning mortality (-5.96 € and -5.73 €/+1% calves per cow and year, fattening mortality (-8.23 € and -7.88 €/+1% calves per cow and year, adult mortality (-8.92 € and -7.34 €/+1% adult cows per cow and year, pre-weaning average daily gain (2.56 € and 2.84 €/+10g/d, fattening young animals average daily gain (2.65 € and 3.00 €/+10g/d, culled cow in fattening average daily gain (0.25 € and 0.16 €/+10g/d, culled cow dressing carcass percentage (3.09 € and 2.42 €/+1%, culled cow price (4.59 € and 3.59 €/+0.06 €/kg, carcass conformation score (16.39 € and 15.3 €/+1 SEUROP class, dressing carcass rate of calf (18.22 € and 18.23 €/+1%, carcass growth (9.00 € and 10.09 €/+10g of carcass weight/d and age at slaughter (0.27 € and 0.44 €/+1d. Two sample herds were used to show the economic impact of calving interval and age at first calving shortening in the profit per slaughtered young animal, which was 178 € and 111 € for Herds A and B, respectively. The economic values of functional traits were reduced and production traits were enhanced when fertility traits were improved. The model could be applied in a Spanish national program.

A bio-economic model to improve profitability in a large national beef cattle population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

López-Paredes, J.; Jiménez-Montero, J.A.; Pérez-Cabal, M.A.; González-Recio, O.; Alenda, R.

2017-07-01

A bio-economic model was developed for estimating economic values for use in improving profitability in a large national beef cattle population from birth to slaughter. Results were divided into fattening costs, production costs and income. Economic values were derived for 17 traits for two regions, mature weight (-0.43 € and -0.38 €/+1 kg of live weight), age at first calving (-0.13 € and -0.11 €/+1d), calving interval (-1.06 € and -1.02 €/+1d), age at last calving (0.03 € and 0.03 €/+1d), mortality 0-48 h (-5.86 € and -5.63 €/1% calves per cow and year), pre-weaning mortality (-5.96 € and -5.73 €/+1% calves per cow and year), fattening mortality (-8.23 € and -7.88 €/+1% calves per cow and year), adult mortality (-8.92 € and -7.34 €/+1% adult cows per cow and year), pre-weaning average daily gain (2.56 € and 2.84 €/+10g/d), fattening young animals average daily gain (2.65 € and 3.00 €/+10g/d), culled cow in fattening average daily gain (0.25 € and 0.16 €/+10g/d), culled cow dressing carcass percentage (3.09 € and 2.42 €/+1%), culled cow price (4.59 € and 3.59 €/+0.06 €/kg), carcass conformation score (16.39 € and 15.3 €/+1 SEUROP class), dressing carcass rate of calf (18.22 € and 18.23 €/+1%), carcass growth (9.00 € and 10.09 €/+10g of carcass weight/d) and age at slaughter (0.27 € and 0.44 €/+1d). Two sample herds were used to show the economic impact of calving interval and age at first calving shortening in the profit per slaughtered young animal, which was 178 € and 111 € for Herds A and B, respectively. The economic values of functional traits were reduced and production traits were enhanced when fertility traits were improved. The model could be applied in a Spanish national program.

A bio-economic model to improve profitability in a large national beef cattle population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

López-Paredes, J.; Jiménez-Montero, J.A.; Pérez-Cabal, M.A.; González-Recio, O.; Alenda, R.

2017-01-01

A bio-economic model was developed for estimating economic values for use in improving profitability in a large national beef cattle population from birth to slaughter. Results were divided into fattening costs, production costs and income. Economic values were derived for 17 traits for two regions, mature weight (-0.43 € and -0.38 €/+1 kg of live weight), age at first calving (-0.13 € and -0.11 €/+1d), calving interval (-1.06 € and -1.02 €/+1d), age at last calving (0.03 € and 0.03 €/+1d), mortality 0-48 h (-5.86 € and -5.63 €/1% calves per cow and year), pre-weaning mortality (-5.96 € and -5.73 €/+1% calves per cow and year), fattening mortality (-8.23 € and -7.88 €/+1% calves per cow and year), adult mortality (-8.92 € and -7.34 €/+1% adult cows per cow and year), pre-weaning average daily gain (2.56 € and 2.84 €/+10g/d), fattening young animals average daily gain (2.65 € and 3.00 €/+10g/d), culled cow in fattening average daily gain (0.25 € and 0.16 €/+10g/d), culled cow dressing carcass percentage (3.09 € and 2.42 €/+1%), culled cow price (4.59 € and 3.59 €/+0.06 €/kg), carcass conformation score (16.39 € and 15.3 €/+1 SEUROP class), dressing carcass rate of calf (18.22 € and 18.23 €/+1%), carcass growth (9.00 € and 10.09 €/+10g of carcass weight/d) and age at slaughter (0.27 € and 0.44 €/+1d). Two sample herds were used to show the economic impact of calving interval and age at first calving shortening in the profit per slaughtered young animal, which was 178 € and 111 € for Herds A and B, respectively. The economic values of functional traits were reduced and production traits were enhanced when fertility traits were improved. The model could be applied in a Spanish national program.

Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Balali

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

Parameter estimation with bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization: modeling the dynamics of endocytosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tashkova Katerina

2011-10-01

convergence. These results hold for both real and artificial data, for all observability scenarios considered, and for all amounts of noise added to the artificial data. In sum, the meta-heuristic methods considered are suitable for estimating the parameters in the ODE model of the dynamics of endocytosis under a range of conditions: With the model and conditions being representative of parameter estimation tasks in ODE models of biochemical systems, our results clearly highlight the promise of bio-inspired meta-heuristic methods for parameter estimation in dynamic system models within system biology.

Parameter estimation with bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization: modeling the dynamics of endocytosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tashkova, Katerina; Korošec, Peter; Silc, Jurij; Todorovski, Ljupčo; Džeroski, Sašo

2011-10-11

artificial data, for all observability scenarios considered, and for all amounts of noise added to the artificial data. In sum, the meta-heuristic methods considered are suitable for estimating the parameters in the ODE model of the dynamics of endocytosis under a range of conditions: With the model and conditions being representative of parameter estimation tasks in ODE models of biochemical systems, our results clearly highlight the promise of bio-inspired meta-heuristic methods for parameter estimation in dynamic system models within system biology.

Understanding bio-economics

OpenAIRE

Patel, M.K.

2008-01-01

New plants for production of bio-based fuels, chemicals or plastics are being set up at an accelerating pace. However, this transition towards bio-based fuels, feedstocks and chemicals has not come without consequences. Increased demand has pushed up prices of key agricultural products such as maize and corn with the result that consumers - especially those in low income areas - have reacted with concern and protest. At the same time, environmental research institutes and lobby groups - and n...

A multi-scale, multi-disciplinary approach for assessing the technological, economic and environmental performance of bio-based chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrgård, Markus; Sukumara, Sumesh; Campodonico, Miguel; Zhuang, Kai

2015-12-01

In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained interest as a renewable alternative to petrochemicals. However, there is a significant need to assess the technological, biological, economic and environmental feasibility of bio-based chemicals, particularly during the early research phase. Recently, the Multi-scale framework for Sustainable Industrial Chemicals (MuSIC) was introduced to address this issue by integrating modelling approaches at different scales ranging from cellular to ecological scales. This framework can be further extended by incorporating modelling of the petrochemical value chain and the de novo prediction of metabolic pathways connecting existing host metabolism to desirable chemical products. This multi-scale, multi-disciplinary framework for quantitative assessment of bio-based chemicals will play a vital role in supporting engineering, strategy and policy decisions as we progress towards a sustainable chemical industry. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

MODELLING OF TOURISM SERVICE DYNAMICS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC PATTERN OF SOCIETY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lesya Buyak

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Tourism as a phenomenon of social life is a derivative of social development. Its appearance is attributed to the industrial stage of human development, which was inherent in the accelerated development of the productive forces, deepening division of labour, development of urbanization processes. Accelerated innovation changes related to scientific and technological progress contributed to the overall socio-economic development of certain countries, improve the living standards of their populations, changed the nature of work, method and way of life, especially evident in the XX century. Urbanization and changes in the settlement system, post-industrial phase of economic development, deepening comprehension of environmental issues and global dimension of humanity, humanization of all spheres of public life. The increase in tourist flows in all regions complicates the management of enterprises, schemes of partnership in the process in tourism, which, among other things, is accompanied by rising levels of consumer education, and therefore their quality requirements for end tourism product, the rapid increase in supply, there is a need to study the characteristics of consumer behaviour, search for existing reserves to build capacity of individual enterprises, isolation and effective use of effective methods and tools of influence on consumer choice of consumers. Development and implementation of an effective mechanism of formation of market supply needs an assessment of consumer behaviour on quantitative and qualitative indicators. The rapid development of tourism, of course, helps determine the types and methods of calculating these indicators. These problems and targeted research are considered in this article. The subject of research is the concept and tools of analysis, mathematical modelling of the economic structure of society in dynamic tourist services. Research methodology is economic and mathematical models, algorithms and processes

Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chian, Abraham C.-L.; Rempel, Erico L.; Rogers, Colin

2006-01-01

Complex economic dynamics is studied by a forced oscillator model of business cycles. The technique of numerical modeling is applied to characterize the fundamental properties of complex economic systems which exhibit multiscale and multistability behaviors, as well as coexistence of order and chaos. In particular, we focus on the dynamics and structure of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles within a periodic window of the bifurcation diagram, at the onset of a saddle-node bifurcation and of an attractor merging crisis, and in the chaotic regions associated with type-I intermittency and crisis-induced intermittency, in non-linear economic cycles. Inside a periodic window, chaotic saddles are responsible for the transient motion preceding convergence to a periodic or a chaotic attractor. The links between chaotic saddles, crisis and intermittency in complex economic dynamics are discussed. We show that a chaotic attractor is composed of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits located in the gap regions of chaotic saddles. Non-linear modeling of economic chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency can improve our understanding of the dynamics of financial intermittency observed in stock market and foreign exchange market. Characterization of the complex dynamics of economic systems is a powerful tool for pattern recognition and forecasting of business and financial cycles, as well as for optimization of management strategy and decision technology

An economic analysis of a major bio-fuel program undertaken by OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

Biofuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel are creating a new demand for agricultural output and for agriculture land in Canada. However, the participation of other large countries with a large demand potential is necessary for bio-fuels to have a significant impact on the price of grains and oilseeds. This paper quantified the potential impact that a major bio-fuel program initiated by OECD countries has on grain and oilseed prices. The program was initiated for the period 1999 to 2006. There is considerable interest by Canadian producers to stimulate grain and oilseed prices by increasing demand of biofuels. This renewable energy source produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions than petroleum products. The analysis presented in this paper only considered ethanol from corn or wheat and bio-diesel from vegetable oils. It also focused only on the use of bio-fuels in the OECD transportation sector. The analysis was undertaken with AGLINK, a multi-commodity multi-country policy-specific dynamic model of the international agricultural markets built by the OECD with member countries. It was shown that the increase in world and domestic prices for grains and vegetable oils will remain strong, particularly toward 2006. It was also shown that a major bio-fuel program for all OECD countries would be beneficial to Canadian agriculture. It was concluded that ultimately, an increase in OECD bio-fuels usage has a direct impact on the demand for grains and oilseeds which are important feed-stocks in biofuel production. The analysis presumes an increase in renewable fuel use, but does not consider factors such as financial incentives and regulatory requirements that could bring about this increase. 7 refs., 6 tabs., 4 figs

Concept of dynamic memory in economics

Science.gov (United States)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2018-02-01

In this paper we discuss a concept of dynamic memory and an application of fractional calculus to describe the dynamic memory. The concept of memory is considered from the standpoint of economic models in the framework of continuous time approach based on fractional calculus. We also describe some general restrictions that can be imposed on the structure and properties of dynamic memory. These restrictions include the following three principles: (a) the principle of fading memory; (b) the principle of memory homogeneity on time (the principle of non-aging memory); (c) the principle of memory reversibility (the principle of memory recovery). Examples of different memory functions are suggested by using the fractional calculus. To illustrate an application of the concept of dynamic memory in economics we consider a generalization of the Harrod-Domar model, where the power-law memory is taken into account.

Multi-scale exploration of the technical, economic, and environmental dimensions of bio-based chemical production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhuang, Kai; Herrgard, Markus

2015-01-01

factories. To address this issue, we have developed a comprehensive Multi-scale framework for modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes and economic impact assessment. We...... investment in a new bio-based chemical industry, there is a need for assessing the technological, economic, and environmental potentials of combinations of biomass feedstocks, biochemical products, bioprocess technologies, and metabolic engineering approaches in the early phase of development of cell...... demonstrate the use of the MuSIC framework in a case study where two major polymer precursors (1,3-propanediol and 3-hydroxypropionic acid) are produced from two biomass feedstocks (corn-based glucose and soy-based glycerol) through 66 proposed biosynthetic pathways in two host organisms (Escherichia coli...

The dynamics of a non-equilibrium bubble near bio-materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohl, S W; Klaseboer, E; Khoo, B C

2009-01-01

In many medical treatments oscillating (non-equilibrium) bubbles appear. They can be the result of high-intensity-focused ultrasound, laser treatments or shock wave lithotripsy for example. The physics of such oscillating bubbles is often not very well understood. This is especially so if the bubbles are oscillating near (soft) bio-materials. It is well known that bubbles oscillating near (hard) materials have a tendency to form a high speed jet directed towards the material during the collapse phase of the bubble. It is equally well studied that bubbles near a free interface (air) tend to collapse with a jet directed away from this interface. If the interface is neither 'free' nor 'hard', such as often occurs in bio-materials, the resulting flow physics can be very complex. Yet, in many bio-applications, it is crucial to know in which direction the jet will go (if there is a jet at all). Some applications require a jet towards the tissue, for example to destroy it. For other applications, damage due to impacting jets is to be prevented at all cost. This paper tries to address some of the physics involved in these treatments by using a numerical method, the boundary element method (BEM), to study the dynamics of such bubbles near several bio-materials. In the present work, the behaviour of a bubble placed in a water-like medium near various bio-materials (modelled as elastic fluids) is investigated. It is found that its behaviour depends on the material properties (Young's modulus, Poisson ratio and density) of the bio-material. For soft bio-materials (fat, skin, brain and muscle), the bubble tends to split into smaller bubbles. In certain cases, the resulting bubbles develop opposing jets. For hard bio-materials (cornea, cartilage and bone), the bubble collapses towards the interface with high speed jets (between 100 and about 250 m s -1 ). A summary graph is provided identifying the combined effects of the dimensionless elasticity (κ) and density ratio (α) of

Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

Modelling the impact of mining on socio-economic infrastructure development: a system dynamics approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maluleke, George

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human’s ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage.

A Mathematical Model of Economic Population Dynamics in a Country That Has Optimal Zakat Management

Science.gov (United States)

Subhan, M.

2018-04-01

Zakat is the main tools against two issues in Islamic economy: economic justice and helping the poor. However, no government of Islamic countries can solve the economic disparity today. A mathematical model could give some understanding about this phenomenon. The goal of this research is to obtain a mathematical model that can describe the dynamic of economic group population. The research is theoretical based on relevance references. From the analytical and numerical simulation, we conclude that well-manage zakat and full comitment of the wealthy can achieve wealth equilibrium that represents minimum poverty.

Multi-scale exploration of the technical, economic, and environmental dimensions of bio-based chemical production.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Kai H; Herrgård, Markus J

2015-09-01

In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained traction as a sustainable alternative to petrochemicals. However, despite rapid advances in metabolic engineering and synthetic biology, there remain significant economic and environmental challenges. In order to maximize the impact of research investment in a new bio-based chemical industry, there is a need for assessing the technological, economic, and environmental potentials of combinations of biomass feedstocks, biochemical products, bioprocess technologies, and metabolic engineering approaches in the early phase of development of cell factories. To address this issue, we have developed a comprehensive Multi-scale framework for modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes and economic impact assessment. We demonstrate the use of the MuSIC framework in a case study where two major polymer precursors (1,3-propanediol and 3-hydroxypropionic acid) are produced from two biomass feedstocks (corn-based glucose and soy-based glycerol) through 66 proposed biosynthetic pathways in two host organisms (Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae). The MuSIC framework allows exploration of tradeoffs and interactions between economy-scale objectives (e.g. profit maximization, emission minimization), constraints (e.g. land-use constraints) and process- and cell-scale technology choices (e.g. strain design or oxygenation conditions). We demonstrate that economy-scale assessment can be used to guide specific strain design decisions in metabolic engineering, and that these design decisions can be affected by non-intuitive dependencies across multiple scales. Copyright © 2015 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A bio-economic analysis of harvest control rules for the Northeast Arctic cod fishery.

Science.gov (United States)

Eikeset, Anne Maria; Richter, Andries P; Dankel, Dorothy J; Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2013-05-01

Harvest control rules (HCRs) have been implemented for many fisheries worldwide. However, in most instances, those HCRs are not based on the explicit feedbacks between stock properties and economic considerations. This paper develops a bio-economic model that evaluates the HCR adopted in 2004 by the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fishery Commission to manage the world's largest cod stock, Northeast Arctic cod (NEA). The model considered here is biologically and economically detailed, and is the first to compare the performance of the stock's current HCR with that of alternative HCRs derived with optimality criteria. In particular, HCRs are optimized for economic objectives including fleet profits, economic welfare, and total yield and the emerging properties are analyzed. The performance of these optimal HCRs was compared with the currently used HCR. This paper show that the current HCR does in fact comes very close to maximizing profits. Furthermore, the results reveal that the HCR that maximizes profits is the most precautionary one among the considered HCRs. Finally, the HCR that maximizes yield leads to un-precautionary low levels of biomass. In these ways, the implementation of the HCR for NEA cod can be viewed as a success story that may provide valuable lessons for other fisheries.

DIY-Bio - economic, epistemological and ethical implications and ambivalences.

Science.gov (United States)

Keulartz, Jozef; van den Belt, Henk

2016-12-01

Since 2008, we witness the emergence of the Do-It-Yourself Biology movement, a global movement spreading the use of biotechnology beyond traditional academic and industrial institutions and into the lay public. Practitioners include a broad mix of amateurs, enthusiasts, students, and trained scientists. At this moment, the movement counts nearly 50 local groups, mostly in America and Europe, but also increasingly in Asia. Do-It-Yourself Bio represents a direct translation of hacking culture and practicesfrom the realm of computers and software into the realm of genes and cells. Although the movement is still in its infancy, and it is even unclear whether it will ever reach maturity, the contours of a new paradigm of knowledge production are already becoming visible. We will subsequently sketch the economic, the epistemological and the ethical profile of Do-It-Yourself Bio, and discuss its implications and also its ambivalences.

Bio-Inspired Neural Model for Learning Dynamic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Duong, Tuan; Duong, Vu; Suri, Ronald

2009-01-01

A neural-network mathematical model that, relative to prior such models, places greater emphasis on some of the temporal aspects of real neural physical processes, has been proposed as a basis for massively parallel, distributed algorithms that learn dynamic models of possibly complex external processes by means of learning rules that are local in space and time. The algorithms could be made to perform such functions as recognition and prediction of words in speech and of objects depicted in video images. The approach embodied in this model is said to be "hardware-friendly" in the following sense: The algorithms would be amenable to execution by special-purpose computers implemented as very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuits that would operate at relatively high speeds and low power demands.

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

2015-06-19

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

Heterogeneous Deformable Modeling of Bio-Tissues and Haptic Force Rendering for Bio-Object Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Shiyong; Lee, Yuan-Shin; Narayan, Roger J.

This paper presents a novel technique for modeling soft biological tissues as well as the development of an innovative interface for bio-manufacturing and medical applications. Heterogeneous deformable models may be used to represent the actual internal structures of deformable biological objects, which possess multiple components and nonuniform material properties. Both heterogeneous deformable object modeling and accurate haptic rendering can greatly enhance the realism and fidelity of virtual reality environments. In this paper, a tri-ray node snapping algorithm is proposed to generate a volumetric heterogeneous deformable model from a set of object interface surfaces between different materials. A constrained local static integration method is presented for simulating deformation and accurate force feedback based on the material properties of a heterogeneous structure. Biological soft tissue modeling is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed techniques. By integrating the heterogeneous deformable model into a virtual environment, users can both observe different materials inside a deformable object as well as interact with it by touching the deformable object using a haptic device. The presented techniques can be used for surgical simulation, bio-product design, bio-manufacturing, and medical applications.

Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS: software for stochastic modeling of biochemical networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elston Timothy C

2004-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. Results We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS for efficientlyand accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solvesthe appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. Conclusions We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

2013-01-01

the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

Process modeling and supply chain design for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qi

As a potential substitute for petroleum-based fuel, second generation biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. With the rapid development of biofuel industry, there has been an increasing literature on the techno-economic analysis and supply chain design for biofuel production based on a variety of production pathways. A recently proposed production pathway of advanced biofuel is to convert biomass to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, then gasify the bio-oil to syngas and upgrade the syngas to transportation fuels in centralized biorefinery. This thesis aims to investigate two types of assessments on this bio-oil gasification pathway: techno-economic analysis based on process modeling and literature data; supply chain design with a focus on optimal decisions for number of facilities to build, facility capacities and logistic decisions considering uncertainties. A detailed process modeling with corn stover as feedstock and liquid fuels as the final products is presented. Techno-economic analysis of the bio-oil gasification pathway is also discussed to assess the economic feasibility. Some preliminary results show a capital investment of 438 million dollar and minimum fuel selling price (MSP) of $5.6 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis finds that MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return (IRR), biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital cost. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to solve the supply chain design problem considering uncertainties in biomass availability, technology advancement, and biofuel price. The first-stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants and the centralized biorefinery while the second-stage determines the biomass and biofuel flows. The numerical results and case study illustrate that considering uncertainties can be

Mild Biomass Liquefaction Process for Economic Production of Stabilized Refinery-Ready Bio-oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gangwal, Santosh [Southern Research, Durham, NC (United States); Meng, Jiajia [Southern Research, Durham, NC (United States); McCabe, Kevin [Southern Research, Durham, NC (United States); Larson, Eric [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Princeton Environmental Inst.; Mastro, Kelly [Southern Research, Durham, NC (United States)

2016-04-25

Southern Research (SR) in cooperation with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Bioenergy Technology Office (BETO), investigated a biomass liquefaction process for economic production of stabilized refinery-ready bio-oil. The project was awarded by DOE under a Funding Opportunity Announcement (DE-FOA-0000686) for Bio-oil Stabilization and Commoditization that intended to evaluate the feasibility of using bio-oil as a potential feedstock in an existing petroleum refinery. SR investigated Topic Area 1 of the FOA at Technology Readiness Level 2-3 to develop thermochemical liquefaction technologies for producing a bio-oil feedstock from high-impact biomass that can be utilized within a petroleum refinery. Bio-oil obtained from fast pyrolysis of biomass is a green intermediate that can be further upgraded into a biofuel for blending in a petroleum refinery using a hydro-deoxygenation (HDO) route. Co-processing pyrolysis bio-oil in a petroleum refinery is an attractive approach to leverage the refinery’s existing capital. However, the petroleum industry is reluctant to accept pyrolysis bio-oil because of a lack of a standard definition for an acceptable bio-oil feedstock in existing refinery processes. Also per BETO’s multiyear program plan, fast pyrolysis-based bio-fuel is presently not cost competitive with petroleum-based transportation fuels. SR aims to develop and demonstrate a cost-effective low-severity thermal liquefaction and hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) process to convert woody biomass to stabilized bio-oils that can be directly blended with hydrotreater input streams in a petroleum refinery for production of gasoline and/or diesel range hydrocarbons. The specific project objectives are to demonstrate the processes at laboratory scale, characterize the bio-oil product and develop a plan in partnership with a refinery company to move the technology towards commercialization.

How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

Science.gov (United States)

Mouysset, L; Doyen, L; Jiguet, F

2013-01-01

Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

BIO-PCI, Charcoal injection in Blast Furnaces: State of the art and economic perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feliciano-Bruzual, C.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The injection of grinded particles of charcoal through the tuyeres in Blast Furnaces, here coined Bio-PCI, presents as an attractive and plausible alternative to significantly reduce the CO2 emissions generated during hot metal production. In this contribution a summary of the technological fundaments, benefits and limitations of the incorporation of Bio-PCI is presented. Additionally the principal economic challenges of renewables fuel in ironmaking are exposed, with especial interest in the main productions costs of charcoal making. In this sense, a strategic question arises: can the residual biomass drive the emergence of Bio-PCI?, our analysis leads to conclude that the use of residual biomass (e.g. agricultural and forestry residues may significantly reduce the production cost in 120-180 USD/t in comparison to primary woods sources, this naturally increment the economical attractiveness of Bio-PCI substitution.La inyección de carbón vegetal por toberas en Altos Hornos, aqui denominada Bio-PCI, se presenta como una forma atractiva y realista de reducir significativamente las emisiones de CO2 generadas durante la producción de arrabio. En esta contribución se presenta un resumen de los fundamentos tecnológicos, los beneficios y las limitaciones de la incorporación de la tecnología del Bio-PCI. Adicionalmente se exponen los retos económicos que enfrentan los combustibles renovables a los fósiles, con especial interés en los principales costos de producción del carbón vegetal. En este sentido se plantea una pregunta estratégica: ¿puede la biomasa residual impulsar el desarrollo de la Bio-PCI?. Nuestro análisis conlleva a concluir que la utilización de biomasa residual (residuos forestales y agrícolas puede reducir sensiblemente el costo del carbón vegetal entre 120-180 USD/t en comparación con biomasa primaria, incrementando su competitividad frente al carbón mineral.

Economic Assessment of FMDv Releases from the National Bio and Agro Defense Facility

Science.gov (United States)

Pendell, Dustin L.; Marsh, Thomas L.; Coble, Keith H.; Lusk, Jayson L.; Szmania, Sara C.

2015-01-01

This study evaluates the economic consequences of hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease releases from the future National Bio and Agro Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas. Using an economic framework that estimates the impacts to agricultural firms and consumers, quantifies costs to non-agricultural activities in the epidemiologically impacted region, and assesses costs of response to the government, we find the distribution of economic impacts to be very significant. Furthermore, agricultural firms and consumers bear most of the impacts followed by the government and the regional non-agricultural firms. PMID:26114546

Dynamic bio-adhesion of polymer nanoparticles on MDCK epithelial cells and its impact on bio-membranes, endocytosis and paracytosis.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Bing; Yuan, Lan; Dai, Wenbing; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Hua; Wang, Xueqing; Fang, Weigang; Zhang, Qiang

2016-03-21

Nowadays, concern about the use of nanotechnology for biomedical application is unprecedentedly increasing. In fact, nanosystems applied for various potential clinical uses always have to cross the primary biological barrier consisting of epithelial cells. However, little is really known currently in terms of the influence of the dynamic bio-adhesion of nanosystems on bio-membranes as well as on endocytosis and transcytosis. This was investigated here using polymer nanoparticles (PNs) and MDCK epithelial cells as the models. Firstly, the adhesion of PNs on cell membranes was found to be time-dependent with a shift of both location and dispersion pattern, from the lateral adhesion of mainly mono-dispersed PNs initially to the apical coverage of the PN aggregate later. Then, it was interesting to observe in this study that the dynamic bio-adhesion of PNs only affected their endocytosis but not their transcytosis. It was important to find that the endocytosis of PNs was not a constant process. A GM1 dependent CDE (caveolae dependent endocytosis) pathway was dominant in the preliminary stage, followed by the co-existence of a CME (clathrin-mediated endocytosis) pathway for the PN aggregate at a later stage, in accordance with the adhesion features of PNs, suggesting the modification of PN adhesion patterns on the endocytosis pathways. Next, the PN adhesion was noticed to affect the structure of cell junctions, via altering the extra- and intra-cellular calcium levels, leading to the enhanced paracellular transport of small molecules, but not favorably enough for the obviously increased passing of PNs themselves. Finally, FRAP and other techniques all demonstrated the obvious impact of PN adhesion on the membrane confirmation, independent of the adhesion location and time, which might lower the threshold for the internalization of PNs, even their aggregates. Generally, these findings confirm that the transport pathway mechanism of PNs through epithelial cells is rather

Dynamic bio-adhesion of polymer nanoparticles on MDCK epithelial cells and its impact on bio-membranes, endocytosis and paracytosis

Science.gov (United States)

He, Bing; Yuan, Lan; Dai, Wenbing; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Hua; Wang, Xueqing; Fang, Weigang; Zhang, Qiang

2016-03-01

Nowadays, concern about the use of nanotechnology for biomedical application is unprecedentedly increasing. In fact, nanosystems applied for various potential clinical uses always have to cross the primary biological barrier consisting of epithelial cells. However, little is really known currently in terms of the influence of the dynamic bio-adhesion of nanosystems on bio-membranes as well as on endocytosis and transcytosis. This was investigated here using polymer nanoparticles (PNs) and MDCK epithelial cells as the models. Firstly, the adhesion of PNs on cell membranes was found to be time-dependent with a shift of both location and dispersion pattern, from the lateral adhesion of mainly mono-dispersed PNs initially to the apical coverage of the PN aggregate later. Then, it was interesting to observe in this study that the dynamic bio-adhesion of PNs only affected their endocytosis but not their transcytosis. It was important to find that the endocytosis of PNs was not a constant process. A GM1 dependent CDE (caveolae dependent endocytosis) pathway was dominant in the preliminary stage, followed by the co-existence of a CME (clathrin-mediated endocytosis) pathway for the PN aggregate at a later stage, in accordance with the adhesion features of PNs, suggesting the modification of PN adhesion patterns on the endocytosis pathways. Next, the PN adhesion was noticed to affect the structure of cell junctions, via altering the extra- and intra-cellular calcium levels, leading to the enhanced paracellular transport of small molecules, but not favorably enough for the obviously increased passing of PNs themselves. Finally, FRAP and other techniques all demonstrated the obvious impact of PN adhesion on the membrane confirmation, independent of the adhesion location and time, which might lower the threshold for the internalization of PNs, even their aggregates. Generally, these findings confirm that the transport pathway mechanism of PNs through epithelial cells is rather

Bio-films and processes of bio-corrosion and bio-deterioration in oil-and gas-processing industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kholodenko, V.P.; Irkhina, I.A.; Chugunov, V.A.; Rodin, V.B.; Zhigletsova, S.K.; Yermolenko, Z.M.; Rudavin, V.V. [State Research Center for Applied Microbiology, Obolensk, Moscow region (Russian Federation)

2004-07-01

As a rule, oil- and gas-processing equipment and pipelines are attacked by different microorganisms. Their vital ability determines processes of bio-deterioration and bio-corrosion that lead often to technological accidents and severe environmental contamination. Bio-films presenting a complex association of different microorganisms and their metabolites are responsible for most of damages. In this context, to study the role bio-films may play in processes of bio-damages and in efficacy of protective measures is important. We have developed method of culturing bio-films on the surface of metal coupons by using a natural microbial association isolated from oil-processing sites. Simple and informative methods of determining microbiological parameters of bio-films required to study bio-corrosion processes are also developed. In addition, a method of electron microscopic analysis of bio-films and pitting corrosion is offered. Using these methods, we conducted model experiments to determine the dynamics of corrosion processes depending on qualitative and quantitative composition of bio-films, aeration conditions and duration of the experiment. A harmful effect of soil bacteria and micro-mycetes on different pipeline coatings was also investigated. Experiments were conducted within 3-6 months and revealed degrading action of microorganisms. This was confirmed by axial tension testing of coatings. All these approaches will be used for further development of measures to protect gas- and oil-processing equipment and pipelines against bio-corrosion and bio-damages (first of all biocides). (authors)

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

Locomotion Dynamics for Bio-inspired Robots with Soft Appendages: Application to Flapping Flight and Passive Swimming

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Frédéric; Porez, Mathieu; Morsli, Ferhat; Morel, Yannick

2017-08-01

In animal locomotion, either in fish or flying insects, the use of flexible terminal organs or appendages greatly improves the performance of locomotion (thrust and lift). In this article, we propose a general unified framework for modeling and simulating the (bio-inspired) locomotion of robots using soft organs. The proposed approach is based on the model of Mobile Multibody Systems (MMS). The distributed flexibilities are modeled according to two major approaches: the Floating Frame Approach (FFA) and the Geometrically Exact Approach (GEA). Encompassing these two approaches in the Newton-Euler modeling formalism of robotics, this article proposes a unique modeling framework suited to the fast numerical integration of the dynamics of a MMS in both the FFA and the GEA. This general framework is applied on two illustrative examples drawn from bio-inspired locomotion: the passive swimming in von Karman Vortex Street, and the hovering flight with flexible flapping wings.

Fuzzy Stochastic Optimal Guaranteed Cost Control of Bio-Economic Singular Markovian Jump Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Li; Zhang, Qingling; Zhu, Baoyan

2015-11-01

This paper establishes a bio-economic singular Markovian jump model by considering the price of the commodity as a Markov chain. The controller is designed for this system such that its biomass achieves the specified range with the least cost in a finite-time. Firstly, this system is described by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. Secondly, a new design method of fuzzy state-feedback controllers is presented to ensure not only the regularity, nonimpulse, and stochastic singular finite-time boundedness of this kind of systems, but also an upper bound achieved for the cost function in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities. Finally, two examples including a practical example of eel seedling breeding are given to illustrate the merit and usability of the approach proposed in this paper.

Improved Lighthill fish swimming model for bio-inspired robots - Modelling, computational aspects and experimental comparisons.

OpenAIRE

Porez , Mathieu; Boyer , Frédéric; Ijspeert , Auke

2014-01-01

International audience; The best known analytical model of swimming was originally developed by Lighthill and is known as large amplitude elongated body theory (LAEBT). Recently, this theory has been improved and adapted to robotics through a series of studies [Boyer et al., 2008, 2010; Candelier et al., 2011] ranging from hydrodynamic modelling to mobile multibody system dynamics. This article marks a further step towards the Lighthill theory. The LAEBT is ap- plied to one of the best bio-in...

THE WAYS AND METHODS OF MAINTENANCE OF ECONOMIC STABILITY OF BUILDING ENTERPRISE BY CAUSE OF DYNAMIC MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Platonov

2008-12-01

Full Text Available It is considered in work what exactly is main base for construction of dynamic model of stability of the building enterprise. There are submitted normative requirements which provide economic stability and also normative parities of dynamics of the parameters that correspond to these requirements. The technique of providing of economic stability is submitted on examples of two building enterprises of Ekaterinburg in view of results of their work in years of 2005-2006. There are determined the ways of providing of economic stability on the results of the carried out calculation. There are also revealed reserves of the enterprises for growth of efficiency of their activity.

Techno-economic assessment of the production of bio-based chemicals from glutamic acid

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lammens, T.M.; Gangarapu, S.; Franssen, M.C.R.; Scott, E.L.; Sanders, J.P.M.

2012-01-01

In this review, possible process steps for the production of bio-based industrial chemicals from glutamic acid are described, including a techno-economic assessment of all processes. The products under investigation were those that were shown to be synthesized from glutamic acid on lab-scale, namely

Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

OpenAIRE

Bui, Bich Xuan

2017-01-01

The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

Models of Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

2013-01-01

The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

On-chip visual perception of motion: a bio-inspired connectionist model on FPGA.

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Huitzil, César; Girau, Bernard; Castellanos-Sánchez, Claudio

2005-01-01

Visual motion provides useful information to understand the dynamics of a scene to allow intelligent systems interact with their environment. Motion computation is usually restricted by real time requirements that need the design and implementation of specific hardware architectures. In this paper, the design of hardware architecture for a bio-inspired neural model for motion estimation is presented. The motion estimation is based on a strongly localized bio-inspired connectionist model with a particular adaptation of spatio-temporal Gabor-like filtering. The architecture is constituted by three main modules that perform spatial, temporal, and excitatory-inhibitory connectionist processing. The biomimetic architecture is modeled, simulated and validated in VHDL. The synthesis results on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) device show the potential achievement of real-time performance at an affordable silicon area.

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reproduction of Economic Interests as a Nonlinear Dynamical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smiesova Viktoria L.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to define the system characteristics of reproduction of economic interests of actors, substantiate the possibility of its evolutionary and revolutionary development and the nonlinearity of its development in dynamics. The article justifies the main characteristics of the system of reproduction of economic interests. It is proved that in this system stability and variability are complementarily combined as integrated mechanisms of its development in statics and dynamics, assurance of its self-organization and self-restoration, quantitative and qualitative transformation. In its static state, there prevail characteristics of steadiness and leaning towards stability and constancy. In the dynamic state, the main characteristic is variability of the system of reproduction of economic interests, which determines / reacts to the processes of transformation and development of its constituent subsystems, potential opportunities, preferences and economic behavior of actors (changes in the endogenous environment, institutions and establishments, constraints and stabilizers (changes in the exogenous environment. The model of dynamic development of the system for reproduction of economic interests is proposed, the phases of its evolutionary and revolutionary development are substantiated.

Molecular dynamics investigations of BioH protein substrate specificity for biotin synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Qiao; Cui, Ying-Lu; Zheng, Qing-Chuan; Zhang, Hong-Xing

2016-05-01

BioH, an enzyme of biotin synthesis, plays an important role in fatty acid synthesis which assembles the pimelate moiety. Pimeloyl-acyl carrier protein (ACP) methyl ester, which is long known to be a biotin precursor, is the physiological substrate of BioH. Azelayl methyl ester, which has a longer chain than pimeloyl methyl ester, conjugated to ACP is also indeed accepted by BioH with very low rate of hydrolysis. To date, the substrate specificity for BioH and the molecular origin for the experimentally observed rate changes of hydrolysis by the chain elongation have remained elusive. To this end, we have investigated chain elongation effects on the structures by using the fully atomistic molecular dynamics simulations combined with binding free energy calculations. The results indicate that the substrate specificity is determined by BioH together with ACP. The added two methylenes would increase the structural flexibility by protein motions at the interface of ACP and BioH, instead of making steric clashes with the side chains of the BioH hydrophobic cavity. On the other hand, the slower hydrolysis of azelayl substrate is suggested to be associated with the loose of contacts between BioH and ACP, and with the lost electrostatic interactions of two ionic/hydrogen bonding networks at the interface of the two proteins. The present study provides important insights into the structure-function relationships of the complex of BioH with pimeloyl-ACP methyl ester, which could contribute to further understanding about the mechanism of the biotin synthetic pathway, including the catalytic role of BioH.

Six recommendations for a bio-based economy in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Hoeven, D.

2009-03-01

The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. Based on the results of the studies the platform formulated six recommendations [nl

A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

OpenAIRE

Weber, Michael

2004-01-01

The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

BioBoost. Biomass based energy intermediates boosting bio-fuel production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niebel, Andreas [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie (KIT), Karlsruhe (Germany). Institut fuer Katalyseforschung und -technologie (IKFT)

2013-10-01

To increase the share of biomass for renewable energy in Europe conversion pathways which are economic, flexible in feedstock and energy efficient are needed. The BioBoost project concentrates on dry and wet residual biomass and wastes as feedstock for de-central conversion by fast pyrolysis, catalytic pyrolysis and hydrothermal carbonization to the intermediate energy carriers oil, coal or slurry. Based on straw the energy density increases from 2 to 20-30 GJ/m{sup 3}, enabling central GW scale gasification plants for bio-fuel production. A logistic model for feedstock supply and connection of de-central with central conversion is set up and validated allowing the determination of costs, the number and location of de-central and central sites. Techno/economic and environmental assessment of the value chain supports the optimization of products and processes. The utilization of energy carriers is investigated in existing and coming applications of heat and power production and synthetic fuels and chemicals. (orig.)

Industrial Dynamics and Economic Geography

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Capasso, Marco|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314016627; Stam, Erik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/215649370; Cefis, Elena|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/274516233

2015-01-01

Capasso M., Stam E. and Cefis E. Industrial dynamics and economic geography, Regional Studies. How do industries emerge and evolve over space? In this special issue the fields of industrial dynamics and economic geography are brought together in order to achieve a richer and more fundamental

TEMAS: fleet-based bio-economic simulation software to evaluate management strategies accounting for fleet behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ulrich, Clara; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard; Sparre, Per Johan

2007-01-01

TEMAS (technical management measures) is a fleet-based bio-economic software for evaluating management strategies accounting for technical measures and fleet behaviour. It focuses on mixed fisheries in which several fleets can choose among several fishing activities to target different stocks...

Comparing centralized and decentralized bio-energy systems in rural China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Guizhen; Bluemling, Bettina; Mol, Arthur P.J.; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong

2013-01-01

Under the dual pressures of an energy crisis and rising greenhouse gas emissions, biomass energy development and utilisation has become part of the national energy strategy in China. The last decade has witnessed a strong promotion of both centralised and decentralised bio-energy systems in rural China. The government seems to have a strong preference for centralised (village-based) bio-energy systems in recent years. However, these government-driven systems have not worked without difficulties, particularly regarding economic and technological viability and maintenance. Studies on the advantages and disadvantages of decentralised and centralised bio-energy systems are rare. This study aims to shed light on the performances of these two systems in terms of social, economic and environmental effects. Through interviewing local officials and village leaders and surveying farmers in 12 villages in Shandong Province, it was found that bio-energy systems should be selected based on the local circumstances. The diversity of the local natural, economic and social situations determines the size, place, technology and organisational model of the bio-energy system. - Highlights: • Biomass energy development has become part of the national energy strategy in China. • The dis-/advantages of decentralized and centralized bio-energy systems are evaluated. • Bio-energy systems should be selected based on the local circumstances

A dynamic optimization on economic energy efficiency in development: A numerical case of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Dong

2014-01-01

This paper is based on dynamic optimization methodology to investigate the economic energy efficiency issues in developing countries. The paper introduces some definitions about energy efficiency both in economics and physics, and establishes a quantitative way for measuring the economic energy efficiency. The linkage between economic energy efficiency, energy consumption and other macroeconomic variables is demonstrated primarily. Using the methodology of dynamic optimization, a maximum problem of economic energy efficiency over time, which is subjected to the extended Solow growth model and instantaneous investment rate, is modelled. In this model, the energy consumption is set as a control variable and the capital is regarded as a state variable. The analytic solutions can be derived and the diagrammatic analysis provides saddle-point equilibrium. A numerical simulation based on China is also presented; meanwhile, the optimal paths of investment and energy consumption can be drawn. The dynamic optimization encourages governments in developing countries to pursue higher economic energy efficiency by controlling the energy consumption and regulating the investment state as it can conserve energy without influencing the achievement of steady state in terms of Solow model. If that, a sustainable development will be achieved. - Highlights: • A new definition on economic energy efficiency is proposed mathematically. • A dynamic optimization modelling links economic energy efficiency with other macroeconomic variables in long run. • Economic energy efficiency is determined by capital stock level and energy consumption. • Energy saving is a key solution for improving economic energy efficiency

BioModels: expanding horizons to include more modelling approaches and formats.

Science.gov (United States)

Glont, Mihai; Nguyen, Tung V N; Graesslin, Martin; Hälke, Robert; Ali, Raza; Schramm, Jochen; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Kothamachu, Varun B; Rodriguez, Nicolas; Swat, Maciej J; Eils, Jurgen; Eils, Roland; Laibe, Camille; Malik-Sheriff, Rahuman S; Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Le Novère, Nicolas; Hermjakob, Henning

2018-01-04

BioModels serves as a central repository of mathematical models representing biological processes. It offers a platform to make mathematical models easily shareable across the systems modelling community, thereby supporting model reuse. To facilitate hosting a broader range of model formats derived from diverse modelling approaches and tools, a new infrastructure for BioModels has been developed that is available at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/biomodels. This new system allows submitting and sharing of a wide range of models with improved support for formats other than SBML. It also offers a version-control backed environment in which authors and curators can work collaboratively to curate models. This article summarises the features available in the current system and discusses the potential benefit they offer to the users over the previous system. In summary, the new portal broadens the scope of models accepted in BioModels and supports collaborative model curation which is crucial for model reproducibility and sharing. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2014-04-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Bio-inspired networking

CERN Document Server

Câmara, Daniel

2015-01-01

Bio-inspired techniques are based on principles, or models, of biological systems. In general, natural systems present remarkable capabilities of resilience and adaptability. In this book, we explore how bio-inspired methods can solve different problems linked to computer networks. Future networks are expected to be autonomous, scalable and adaptive. During millions of years of evolution, nature has developed a number of different systems that present these and other characteristics required for the next generation networks. Indeed, a series of bio-inspired methods have been successfully used to solve the most diverse problems linked to computer networks. This book presents some of these techniques from a theoretical and practical point of view. Discusses the key concepts of bio-inspired networking to aid you in finding efficient networking solutions Delivers examples of techniques both in theoretical concepts and practical applications Helps you apply nature's dynamic resource and task management to your co...

Computing Pathways in Bio-Models Derived from Bio-Science Text Sources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreasen, Troels; Bulskov, Henrik; Nilsson, Jørgen Fischer

2015-01-01

This paper outlines a system, OntoScape, serving to accomplish complex inference tasks on knowledge bases and bio-models derived from life-science text corpora. The system applies so-called natural logic, a form of logic which is readable for humans. This logic affords ontological representations...... of complex terms appearing in the text sources. Along with logical propositions, the system applies a semantic graph representation facilitating calculation of bio-pathways. More generally, the system aords means of query answering appealing to general and domain specic inference rules....

A bio-economic appraisal of pair trawl fisheries off southeastern Brazil Uma análise bio-econômica da pesca de parelhas no sudeste do Brasil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Arnaud Britto de Castro

2001-01-01

Full Text Available A study of the pair trawl fisheries was made in an attempt to introduce bio-economic models into fishery management in southern and southeastern Brazil. The biological parameters of demersal fishes found in the literature were used to mount the bio-economic model. Since there are no historical data on the economics of the fishery industry, the present market values of fish and of the diverse items that compose the costs of the catch have been used. The results show that the fleet was oversized in the period 1976-1981. The number of boats was reduced from 28 pairs to only 11 in 1996, but was still considered too big. The size of the fleet is reflected in the economic results of the analysis which shows negative returns. However, the fact that some of the fixed costs are not actually spent by the owners of the boats, as many of them have no insurance and most of the boats are already completely paid off and do not accrue costs on the capital invested must all be taken into account. On the other hand, the income figures used in this analysis did not take into account the value of the by-catch landed.Numa primeira tentativa de introduzir modelos bio-econômicos no gerenciamento pesqueiro no sudeste e sul do Brasil realizou-se um estudo da pesca de parelhas. Para isso construiu-se um modelo utilizando os parâmetros biológicos disponíveis na literatura. Como não há registros históricos de dados econômicos da pesca, foram utilizados os valores atuais do pescado e dos diversos insumos utilizados nessa atividade. Os resultados indicam que a frota estava superdimensionada no período de 1976-1981. De fato, daquela época até 1996, essa frota reduziu-se de 28 parelhas para apenas 11, um número ainda excessivo. O superdimensionamento da frota reflete-se nos resultados econômicos da análise, na forma de retornos financeiros negativos. Entretanto, deve-se levar em conta que alguns dos custos fixos não representam efetivo desembolso por parte dos

Dynamic Linear Models with R

CERN Document Server

Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

2009-01-01

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

An integrated approach for the validation of energy and environmental system analysis models : used in the validation of the Flexigas Excel BioGas model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pierie, Frank; van Someren, Christian; Liu, Wen; Bekkering, Jan; Hengeveld, Evert Jan; Holstein, J.; Benders, René M.J.; Laugs, Gideon A.H.; van Gemert, Wim; Moll, Henri C.

2016-01-01

A review has been completed for a verification and validation (V&V) of the (Excel) BioGas simulator or EBS model. The EBS model calculates the environmental impact of biogas production pathways using Material and Energy Flow Analysis, time dependent dynamics, geographic information, and Life Cycle

BioNSi: A Discrete Biological Network Simulator Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Amir; Bracha, Noga; Rudner, Liat; Zucker, Noga; Sloin, Hadas E; Chor, Benny

2016-08-05

Modeling and simulation of biological networks is an effective and widely used research methodology. The Biological Network Simulator (BioNSi) is a tool for modeling biological networks and simulating their discrete-time dynamics, implemented as a Cytoscape App. BioNSi includes a visual representation of the network that enables researchers to construct, set the parameters, and observe network behavior under various conditions. To construct a network instance in BioNSi, only partial, qualitative biological data suffices. The tool is aimed for use by experimental biologists and requires no prior computational or mathematical expertise. BioNSi is freely available at http://bionsi.wix.com/bionsi , where a complete user guide and a step-by-step manual can also be found.

Modeling of Hybrid Growth Wastewater Bio-reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

EI Nashaei, S.; Garhyan, P.; Prasad, P.; Abdel Halim, H.S.; Ibrahim, G.

2004-01-01

The attached/suspended growth mixed reactors are considered one of the recently tried approaches to improve the performance of the biological treatment by increasing the volume of the accumulated biomass in terms of attached growth as well as suspended growth. Moreover, the domestic WW can be easily mixed with a high strength non-hazardous industrial wastewater and treated together in these bio-reactors if the need arises. Modeling of Hybrid hybrid growth wastewater reactor addresses the need of understanding the rational of such system in order to achieve better design and operation parameters. This paper aims at developing a heterogeneous mathematical model for hybrid growth system considering the effect of diffusion, external mass transfer, and power input to the system in a rational manner. The model will be based on distinguishing between liquid/solid phase (bio-film and bio-floc). This model would be a step ahead to the fine tuning the design of hybrid systems based on the experimental data of a pilot plant to be implemented in near future

Urban eco-efficiency and system dynamics modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hradil, P., Email: petr.hradil@vtt.fi

2012-06-15

Assessment of urban development is generally based on static models of economic, social or environmental impacts. More advanced dynamic models have been used mostly for prediction of population and employment changes as well as for other macro-economic issues. This feasibility study was arranged to test the potential of system dynamic modelling in assessing eco-efficiency changes during urban development. (orig.)

Modeling economic costs of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction: analysis using a dynamic CGE model

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2013-11-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on economy, whereas reconstruction investments have positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and further avoid double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks in CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on supply side of economy; A portion of investments restore the capital stock in existing period; An investment-driven dynamic model is formulated due to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. S2 overestimates economic loss by roughly two times that under S1. The gap in economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% in 2011, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Dynamic model of minimax control over economic security state of the region in the presence of risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey Fedorovich Shorikov

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Investigation and solution of management of economic security state in the region (MESSR requires development of a dynamic economic-mathematical model that takes into account the presence of control actions, uncontrolled parameters (risk modeling errors, etc. and availability of information deficit. At the same time, the existing approaches to solving such problems are based primarily on static models and the use of stochastic modeling of the device, which is required for the application of knowledge of the probability characteristics of the main model parameters and special conditions for the realization of the process. We should note that to use the apparatus of stochastic modeling, very strict conditions are required, which in practice are usually not feasible in advance In this paper, we propose to use a deterministic approach for modeling and solving the original problem in the form of a dynamic programming problem of minimax control (optimization of a guaranteed result MESSR at the determined point of time, taking into account the availability of risks of deterministic and stochastic nature (combined risks model. At thesametime, under therisks in thesocial and economic system we understand thefactors that negatively catastrophically affect the results of the reviewed processes inside it. For an effective use, a technique of prediction and assessment of time rows and stochastic risks in MESSR optimization process is presented, which can serve as a basis for the development of appropriate computer software. To solve the problem of program minimax control MESSR in the presence of risks, we propose a method which is reduced to the realization of a finite number of solutions of linear and convex mathematical programming and discrete optimization problem. The proposed method makes it possible to develop efficient numerical procedures to implement computer simulation of the dynamics of the problem, build program minimax control and gain optimal

Kinetic models of cell growth, substrate utilization and bio ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Bio-decolorization kinetic studies of distillery effluent in a batch culture were conducted using Aspergillus fumigatus. A simple model was proposed using the Logistic Equation for the growth, Leudeking-Piret kinetics for bio-decolorization, and also for substrate utilization. The proposed models appeared to provide a suitable ...

Socio-economic Effects of a Bio-DME Plant in Vaexjoe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baudin, Anders; Nordvall, Hans-Olof

2008-03-15

The task described for CHRISGAS Work Package (WP) 16 (Socio-economic Studies) is to assess the likely short- and long-term effects on society in general and the forest sector in particular of a full-scale bio-DME plant in Vaexjoe. Bio-DME is an emission free substitute to diesel. Bio-DME can also be mixed with or constitute a substitute for LPG (Liquid Petroleum Gas). A full-scale bio-DME plant is expected to produce 400 000 tons annually with a raw material requirement in the order of 2.6 TWh. In our study we have also considered output levels at 200 000 and 100 000 tons, respectively. The essential issues investigated concern the raw material availability, investment cost, product prices and employment. In our study we limit the discussion on raw material for bio-DME to include logging residues and stumps. Despite this limitation we have to consider it from the whole context of the forest sector. The availability of logging residues and stumps is closely related to forest operations such as clear cuts, thinnings and clearings. Transport of raw material to Vaexjoe is considered within a distance of 150 km by road, 600 km by railroad and 10 000 km by sea. Although it can be argued that forest fuel is a commodity that can be transported over long distances, e. g. as chips, it has to be recognised that the vast majority raw material has to be found near the bio-DME plant. Therefore it is necessary to obtain a realistic view on what is available within road distance, i.e. within 150 km from Vaexjoe. Based on two independent data sources and considering only logging residues and stumps we find that the bio-DME plant in Vaexjoe to a large (or even full) extent can be supplied by logging residues and stumps in a radius of 150 km around Vaexjoe. From the aspect of competition of raw material the picture is more complicated. Logging residues and stumps will, to an increasing degree, be used by the thermal heating/power plants in south Sweden and, in addition, there is

Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

OpenAIRE

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

Optimal dynamic economic dispatch of generation: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia, X.; Elaiw, A.M.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a review of the research of the optimal power dynamic dispatch problem. The dynamic dispatch problem differs from the static economic dispatch problem by incorporating generator ramp rate constraints. There are two different formulations of this problem in the literature. The first formulation is the optimal control dynamic dispatch (OCDD) where the power system generation has been modeled as a control system and optimization is done in the optimal control setting with respect to the ramp rates as input variables. The second one is a later formulation known as the dynamic economic dispatch (DED) where optimization is done with respect to the dispatchable powers of the committed generation units. In this paper we first outline the two formulations, then present an overview on the mathematical optimization methods, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques and hybrid methods used to solve the problem incorporating extended and complex objective functions or constraints. The DED problem in deregulated electricity markets is also reported. (author)

Processing and characterization of bio-based composites

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Hong

Much research has focused on bio-based composites as a potential material to replace petroleum-based plastics. Considering the high price of Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs), PHA/ Distiller's Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) composite is a promising economical and high-performance biodegradable material. In this paper, we discuss the effect of DDGS on PHA composites in balancing cost with material performance. Poly (lactic acid) PLA/DDGS composite is another excellent biodegradable composite, although as a bio-based polymer its degradation time is relatively long. The goal of this research is therefore to accelerate the degradation process for this material. Both bio-based composites were extruded through a twin-screw microcompounder, and the two materials were uniformly mixed. The morphology of the samples was examined using a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM); thermal stability was determined with a Thermal Gravimetric Analyzer (TGA); other thermal properties were studied using Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and a Dynamic Mechanical Analyzer (DMA). Viscoelastic properties were also evaluated using a Rheometer.

Spatial Analysis of BioAmbients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming; Pilegaard, Henrik

2004-01-01

Programming language technology can contribute to the development and understanding of Systems Biology by providing formal calculi for specifying and analysing the dynamic behaviour of biological systems. Our focus is on BioAmbients, a variation of the ambient calculi developed for modelling...

DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

Detailed qualitative dynamic knowledge representation using a BioNetGen model of TLR-4 signaling and preconditioning.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Gary C; Faeder, James R

2009-01-01

Intracellular signaling/synthetic pathways are being increasingly extensively characterized. However, while these pathways can be displayed in static diagrams, in reality they exist with a degree of dynamic complexity that is responsible for heterogeneous cellular behavior. Multiple parallel pathways exist and interact concurrently, limiting the ability to integrate the various identified mechanisms into a cohesive whole. Computational methods have been suggested as a means of concatenating this knowledge to aid in the understanding of overall system dynamics. Since the eventual goal of biomedical research is the identification and development of therapeutic modalities, computational representation must have sufficient detail to facilitate this 'engineering' process. Adding to the challenge, this type of representation must occur in a perpetual state of incomplete knowledge. We present a modeling approach to address this challenge that is both detailed and qualitative. This approach is termed 'dynamic knowledge representation,' and is intended to be an integrated component of the iterative cycle of scientific discovery. BioNetGen (BNG), a software platform for modeling intracellular signaling pathways, was used to model the toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4) signal transduction cascade. The informational basis of the model was a series of reference papers on modulation of (TLR-4) signaling, and some specific primary research papers to aid in the characterization of specific mechanistic steps in the pathway. This model was detailed with respect to the components of the pathway represented, but qualitative with respect to the specific reaction coefficients utilized to execute the reactions. Responsiveness to simulated lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration was measured by tumor necrosis factor (TNF) production. Simulation runs included evaluation of initial dose-dependent response to LPS administration at 10, 100, 1000 and 10,000, and a subsequent examination of

Structure and physical properties of bio membranes and model membranes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tibor Hianik

2006-01-01

Bio membranes belong to the most important structures of the cell and the cell organelles. They play not only structural role of the barrier separating the external and internal part of the membrane but contain also various functional molecules, like receptors, ionic channels, carriers and enzymes. The cell membrane also preserves non-equilibrium state in a cell which is crucial for maintaining its excitability and other signaling functions. The growing interest to the bio membranes is also due to their unique physical properties. From physical point of view the bio membranes, that are composed of lipid bilayer into which are incorporated integral proteins and on their surface are anchored peripheral proteins and polysaccharides, represent liquid s crystal of smectic type. The bio membranes are characterized by anisotropy of structural and physical properties. The complex structure of bio membranes makes the study of their physical properties rather difficult. Therefore several model systems that mimic the structure of bio membranes were developed. Among them the lipid monolayers at an air-water interphase, bilayer lipid membranes, supported bilayer lipid membranes and liposomes are most known. This work is focused on the introduction into the physical word of the bio membranes and their models. After introduction to the membrane structure and the history of its establishment, the physical properties of the bio membranes and their models are stepwise presented. The most focus is on the properties of lipid monolayers, bilayer lipid membranes, supported bilayer lipid membranes and liposomes that were most detailed studied. This lecture has tutorial character that may be useful for undergraduate and graduate students in the area of biophysics, biochemistry, molecular biology and bioengineering, however it contains also original work of the author and his co-worker and PhD students, that may be useful also for specialists working in the field of bio membranes and model

Nano-Modeling and Computation in Bio and Brain Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Di Sia

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The study of brain dynamics currently utilizes the new features of nanobiotechnology and bioengineering. New geometric and analytical approaches appear very promising in all scientific areas, particularly in the study of brain processes. Efforts to engage in deep comprehension lead to a change in the inner brain parameters, in order to mimic the external transformation by the proper use of sensors and effectors. This paper highlights some crossing research areas of natural computing, nanotechnology, and brain modeling and considers two interesting theoretical approaches related to brain dynamics: (a the memory in neural network, not as a passive element for storing information, but integrated in the neural parameters as synaptic conductances; and (b a new transport model based on analytical expressions of the most important transport parameters, which works from sub-pico-level to macro-level, able both to understand existing data and to give new predictions. Complex biological systems are highly dependent on the context, which suggests a “more nature-oriented” computational philosophy.

Economic communication model set

Science.gov (United States)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

Multi-scale Exploration of the Technical, Economic, and Environmental Dimensions of Bio-based Chemical Production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhuang, Kai; Herrgard, Markus

2014-01-01

of a variety of policies and practices (e.g. land-usage, energy source mixture, CO2 emission cap), as well as trade offs between different objectives (e.g. profits for different sectors, emission minimization) for key stakeholders involved in the biochemical value chain (agriculture, energy, and biotechnology......In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained traction as a sustainable alternative topetrochemicals. In order to maximize the impacts of researches and investments, there is a need to focus on the most promising combinations of feedstocks, biochemical products, and bioprocesses. To address...... this issue, we developed a multiscale framework that integrates modeling approaches across scales of cellular metabolism, bioreactor, bioprocess, and economy/ecosystem, and is able to simultaneously assess biological, technological, economic and environmental feasibility of different production scenarios...

Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukharev Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

Dynamic intersectoral models with power-law memory

Science.gov (United States)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2018-01-01

Intersectoral dynamic models with power-law memory are proposed. The equations of open and closed intersectoral models, in which the memory effects are described by the Caputo derivatives of non-integer orders, are derived. We suggest solutions of these equations, which have the form of linear combinations of the Mittag-Leffler functions and which are characterized by different effective growth rates. Examples of intersectoral dynamics with power-law memory are suggested for two sectoral cases. We formulate two principles of intersectoral dynamics with memory: the principle of changing of technological growth rates and the principle of domination change. It has been shown that in the input-output economic dynamics the effects of fading memory can change the economic growth rate and dominant behavior of economic sectors.

Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management - Part 1: Model development

Science.gov (United States)

Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

2017-08-01

Effective policies, leading to sustainable management solutions for land and water resources, require a full understanding of interactions between socio-economic and physical processes. However, the complex nature of these interactions, combined with limited stakeholder engagement, hinders the incorporation of socio-economic components into physical models. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating the physical Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) with a participatory group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) that includes socio-economic factors. A stepwise process to quantify the GBSDM is presented, along with governing equations and model assumptions. Sub-modules of the GBSDM, describing agricultural, economic, water and farm management factors, are linked together with feedbacks and finally coupled with the physically based SAHYSMOD model through commonly used tools (i.e., MS Excel and a Python script). The overall integrated model (GBSDM-SAHYSMOD) can be used to help facilitate the role of stakeholders with limited expertise and resources in model and policy development and implementation. Following the development of the integrated model, a testing methodology was used to validate the structure and behavior of the integrated model. Model robustness under different operating conditions was also assessed. The model structure was able to produce anticipated real behaviours under the tested scenarios, from which it can be concluded that the formulated structures generate the right behaviour for the right reasons.

Kalman Filtered Bio Heat Transfer Model Based Self-adaptive Hybrid Magnetic Resonance Thermometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yuxin; Chen, Shuo; Deng, Kexin; Chen, Bingyao; Wei, Xing; Yang, Jiafei; Wang, Shi; Ying, Kui

2017-01-01

To develop a self-adaptive and fast thermometry method by combining the original hybrid magnetic resonance thermometry method and the bio heat transfer equation (BHTE) model. The proposed Kalman filtered Bio Heat Transfer Model Based Self-adaptive Hybrid Magnetic Resonance Thermometry, abbreviated as KalBHT hybrid method, introduced the BHTE model to synthesize a window on the regularization term of the hybrid algorithm, which leads to a self-adaptive regularization both spatially and temporally with change of temperature. Further, to decrease the sensitivity to accuracy of the BHTE model, Kalman filter is utilized to update the window at each iteration time. To investigate the effect of the proposed model, computer heating simulation, phantom microwave heating experiment and dynamic in-vivo model validation of liver and thoracic tumor were conducted in this study. The heating simulation indicates that the KalBHT hybrid algorithm achieves more accurate results without adjusting λ to a proper value in comparison to the hybrid algorithm. The results of the phantom heating experiment illustrate that the proposed model is able to follow temperature changes in the presence of motion and the temperature estimated also shows less noise in the background and surrounding the hot spot. The dynamic in-vivo model validation with heating simulation demonstrates that the proposed model has a higher convergence rate, more robustness to susceptibility problem surrounding the hot spot and more accuracy of temperature estimation. In the healthy liver experiment with heating simulation, the RMSE of the hot spot of the proposed model is reduced to about 50% compared to the RMSE of the original hybrid model and the convergence time becomes only about one fifth of the hybrid model. The proposed model is able to improve the accuracy of the original hybrid algorithm and accelerate the convergence rate of MR temperature estimation.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Studies investigating economic, agricultural-economic and demographic factors influencing land use dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mora, R.; San Juan, C.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we review studies investigating economic, agricultural-economic and demographic factors influencing land use dynamics, making special emphasis on the policy framework in the European Union. We find several conclusions, among which the following should be emphasized. First, this review highlights the existence of different methodologies to build up models to identify the effects of policy reforms affecting land use and desertification. Second, use of micro data to set up an econometric-process simulation model of land use has already been used with success. Third, in the geographical distribution of land use, prices drive all short and long-rung processes. Finally, logistic models have recently been used to study micro decisions at the agricultural sector to identify relative rents and land characteristics such as location and soil fertility as main determinants of land use patters. (Author) 8 refs.

Accessing on the sustainability of urban ecological-economic systems by means of a coupled emergy and system dynamics model: A case study of Beijing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Wei; An, Haizhong; Li, Huajiao; Gao, Xiangyun; Sun, Xiaoqi; Zhong, Weiqiong

2017-01-01

Due to high population densities and rapid economic development, great number of cities worldwide rely heavily on external resources, and many are experiencing serious environmental pollution. Municipal governments are facing the issue of balancing the relationship between economic growth and environmental preservation. An urban system is an open, complex, dynamic ecological-economic system with different types of materials and resources. This paper combines emergy theory and System Dynamics (SD) and establishes an emergy-flow SD model of an urban eco-economic system that includes economic, population, waste and emergy sub-models. Three scenarios with different economic growth rates and investments in environmental preservation are designed to analyze the sustainable development capacity of Beijing under different scenarios. The results of the analysis show that current economic development in Beijing highly depends on resources consumption, especially the consumption of imported resources. Based on the current growth rate, development in Beijing will heavily depend on external resources that may make the system being more fragile in the future. A lower economic growth rate and a small increase in environmental preservation investment are more suitable for in Beijing than area higher economic growth rate and a large increase in environmental preservation investment. - Highlights: • A Systems Dynamics model simulating urban emergy flows is set up. • Current economic development of Beijing depends on high consumption of resources. • Beijing has extreme and increasing dependence on external resources. • Beijing relies heavily on nonrenewable resources and its development is unsustainable. • Low GDP growth is better than high GDP growth with increased environmental investment.

System dynamics model of taxi management in metropolises: Economic and environmental implications for Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hao; Zhang, Kai; Chen, Junhua; Wang, Zhifeng; Li, Guijun; Yang, Yuqi

2018-05-01

Taxis are an important component of urban passenger transport. Research on the daily dispatching of taxis and the utility of governmental management is important for the improvement of passenger travel, taxi driver income and environmental impacts. However, urban taxi management is a complex and dynamic system that is affected by many factors, and positive/negative feedback relationships and nonlinear interactions exist between each subsystem and variable. Therefore, conventional research methods can hardly depict its characteristics comprehensively. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a system dynamics model of urban taxi management, in which the empty-loaded rate and total demand are selected as key factors affecting taxi dispatching, and the impacts of taxi fares on driver income and travel demand are taken into account. After the validation of the model, taxi operations data derived from a prior analysis of origin-destination data of Beijing taxis are used as input for the model to simulate the taxi market in Beijing. Finally, economic and environmental implications are provided for the government to optimise policies on taxi management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mixed model approaches for diallel analysis based on a bio-model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, J; Weir, B S

1996-12-01

A MINQUE(1) procedure, which is minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method with 1 for all the prior values, is suggested for estimating variance and covariance components in a bio-model for diallel crosses. Unbiasedness and efficiency of estimation were compared for MINQUE(1), restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and MINQUE theta which has parameter values for the prior values. MINQUE(1) is almost as efficient as MINQUE theta for unbiased estimation of genetic variance and covariance components. The bio-model is efficient and robust for estimating variance and covariance components for maternal and paternal effects as well as for nuclear effects. A procedure of adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) is proposed for predicting random genetic effects in the bio-model. The jack-knife procedure is suggested for estimation of sampling variances of estimated variance and covariance components and of predicted genetic effects. Worked examples are given for estimation of variance and covariance components and for prediction of genetic merits.

Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model

Science.gov (United States)

Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim W.; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

2017-08-01

Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been noteworthy in the development of most civilizations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple economic sectors, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy and (ii) by reducing acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate risks and promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior conceptual work on the relationship between water-related investments and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical systems model of water-related investment, risk, and growth. In cases where initial water security is low, initial investment in water-related assets enables growth. Without such investment, losses due to water-related hazards exert a drag on economic growth and may create a poverty trap. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the exposure of productive water-related assets to water-related risk. Exogenous changes in water-related risk can potentially push an economy away from a growth path toward a poverty trap. Our investigation shows that an inverted-U-shaped investment relation between the level of investment in water security and the current level of water security leads to faster rates of growth than the alternatives that we consider here, and that this relation is responsible for the "S"-curve that is posited in the literature. These results illustrate the importance of accounting for environmental and health risks in economic models and offer insights for the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, in the face

Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

Bio diesel, v. 15(58)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gicheva, Ljubitsa

2007-01-01

The history of bio-fuels/bio-diesel is more political and economical than it is technological. The technology of the production is the same as it was 200 years ago. The economy closed the usage of bio-fuels in the middies of the 20 Th century and put it back on the agenda of the world economy at the beginning of the 21 st century. With price of more then 70 US$ per barrel of grudge oil, production and usage of bio-fuels becomes more economical category rather than political and ecological. If we, additionally, add secondary, yet nowadays very important factors, as ecological protection, recycling the emission of poisonous gasses, exploitation of agro sector, then the reincarnation of bio-fuels is very interesting, and for Macedonia a potentially strategic category. The basics of the biography is to follow in the article paying special attention on the characteristics, standards, production, processing and usage of the bio-diesel fuel as well as the blended B20 and B5. (Author)

Bio diesel, v. 15(59)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gicheva, Ljubitsa

2007-01-01

The history of bio-fuels/bio-diesel is more political and economical than it is technological. The technology of the production is the same as it was 200 years ago. The economy closed the usage of bio-fuels in the middies of the 20 Th century and put it back on the agenda of the world economy at the beginning of the 21 st century. With price of more then 70 US$ per barrel of grudge oil, production and usage of bio-fuels becomes more economical category rather than political and ecological. If we, additionally, add secondary, yet nowadays very important factors, as ecological protection, recycling the emission of poisonous gasses, exploitation of agro sector, then the reincarnation of bio-fuels is very interesting, and for Macedonia a potentially strategic category. The basics of the biography is to follow in the article paying special attention on the characteristics, standards, production, processing and usage of the bio-diesel fuel as well as the blended B20 and B5. (Author)

Complex Dynamics in Nonequilibrium Economics and Chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Kehong

Complex dynamics provides a new approach in dealing with economic complexity. We study interactively the empirical and theoretical aspects of business cycles. The way of exploring complexity is similar to that in the study of an oscillatory chemical system (BZ system)--a model for modeling complex behavior. We contribute in simulating qualitatively the complex periodic patterns observed from the controlled BZ experiments to narrow the gap between modeling and experiment. The gap between theory and reality is much wider in economics, which involves studies of human expectations and decisions, the essential difference from natural sciences. Our empirical and theoretical studies make substantial progress in closing this gap. With the help from the new development in nonequilibrium physics, i.e., the complex spectral theory, we advance our technique in detecting characteristic time scales from empirical economic data. We obtain correlation resonances, which give oscillating modes with decays for correlation decomposition, from different time series including S&P 500, M2, crude oil spot prices, and GNP. The time scales found are strikingly compatible with business experiences and other studies in business cycles. They reveal the non-Markovian nature of coherent markets. The resonances enhance the evidence of economic chaos obtained by using other tests. The evolving multi-humped distributions produced by the moving-time -window technique reveal the nonequilibrium nature of economic behavior. They reproduce the American economic history of booms and busts. The studies seem to provide a way out of the debate on chaos versus noise and unify the cyclical and stochastic approaches in explaining business fluctuations. Based on these findings and new expectation formulation, we construct a business cycle model which gives qualitatively compatible patterns to those found empirically. The soft-bouncing oscillator model provides a better alternative than the harmonic oscillator

Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

Science.gov (United States)

Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

2016-04-01

Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

Bio-diatomite dynamic membrane reactor for micro-polluted surface water treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Huaqiang; Cao, Dawen; Dong, Bingzhi; Qiang, Zhimin

2010-03-01

This work investigated the feasibility of treating micro-polluted surface water for drinking water production with a bio-diatomite dynamic membrane reactor (BDDMR) at lab-scale in continuous-flow mode. Results indicate that the BDDMR was effective in removing COD(Mn), DOC, UV(254), NH(3)-N and trihalomethanes' formation potential (THMFP) at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 3.5h due to its high concentrations of mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) and mixed liquor volatile suspended solids (MLVSS). The removal of pollutants was mainly ascribed to microbial degradation in BDDMR because the dynamic membrane alone was much less effective in pollutant removal. Though the diatomite particles (5-20microm) were much smaller in size than the aperture of the stainless steel support mesh (74microm), microorganisms and their extracellular polymer substances could bind these particles tightly to form bio-diatomite particles which were completely retained by the support mesh. The analysis of molecular weight (MW) distribution by gel permeation chromatography (GPC) shows that the BDDMR could effectively remove the hydrophilic fraction of dissolved organic materials present in the raw water. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BioModels.net Web Services, a free and integrated toolkit for computational modelling software.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chen; Courtot, Mélanie; Le Novère, Nicolas; Laibe, Camille

2010-05-01

Exchanging and sharing scientific results are essential for researchers in the field of computational modelling. BioModels.net defines agreed-upon standards for model curation. A fundamental one, MIRIAM (Minimum Information Requested in the Annotation of Models), standardises the annotation and curation process of quantitative models in biology. To support this standard, MIRIAM Resources maintains a set of standard data types for annotating models, and provides services for manipulating these annotations. Furthermore, BioModels.net creates controlled vocabularies, such as SBO (Systems Biology Ontology) which strictly indexes, defines and links terms used in Systems Biology. Finally, BioModels Database provides a free, centralised, publicly accessible database for storing, searching and retrieving curated and annotated computational models. Each resource provides a web interface to submit, search, retrieve and display its data. In addition, the BioModels.net team provides a set of Web Services which allows the community to programmatically access the resources. A user is then able to perform remote queries, such as retrieving a model and resolving all its MIRIAM Annotations, as well as getting the details about the associated SBO terms. These web services use established standards. Communications rely on SOAP (Simple Object Access Protocol) messages and the available queries are described in a WSDL (Web Services Description Language) file. Several libraries are provided in order to simplify the development of client software. BioModels.net Web Services make one step further for the researchers to simulate and understand the entirety of a biological system, by allowing them to retrieve biological models in their own tool, combine queries in workflows and efficiently analyse models.

Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Appendix 2. Macro-economic Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banse, M.

2009-03-01

The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (known as PGG), which is part of the Energy Transition programme in the Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to study the macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including techno-economic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a top-down study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down study (part 2) including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources, are presented in this report

Quantifying the impact of weather extremes on global food security: A spatial bio-economic approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sika Gbegbelegbe

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This study uses a spatial bio-economic modelling framework to estimate the impact of the 2012 weather extreme in the USA on food security in the developing world. The study also quantifies the potential effects of a similar weather extreme occurring in 2050 under climate change. The study results indicate that weather extremes that affect maize productivity in key grain baskets can negatively affect food security in vulnerable countries. The 2012 weather extreme which occurred in the USA reduced US and global maize production by 29% compared to trend; maize consumption in the country decreased by 5% only and this resulted in less surplus maize for exports from the largest maize exporter in the world. Global maize production decreased by 6% compared to trend. The decrease in global maize production coupled with a reduction in the volume of global maize exports worsened food insecurity in eastern Africa, the Caribbean and Central America and India. The effects of the weather extreme on global food security would be worse, if the latter were to occur under climate change in 2050, assuming no climate change adaptation worldwide over the years. In addition, the hardest-hit regions would remain the same, whether the weather extreme occurs in 2012 instead of 2050: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, South Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC region. However, sustained growth in per capita income across world economies between 2000 and 2050 would allow few countries in SSA and the LAC region to virtually eliminate hunger within their borders. In these countries, per capita income would be high enough by 2050 to completely offset the negative effect of the weather extreme. The study results are also consistent with USDA׳s estimates on US and global maize production and consumption in 2012 after the weather extreme. Some discrepancy is found on the volume of global maize trade; this implies that the bio-economic model likely overestimates the effect of the

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

The MiniBIOS model (version 1A4) at the RIVM

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uijt de Haag PAM; Laheij GMH

1993-01-01

This report is the user's guide of the MiniBIOS model, version 1A4. The model is operational at the Laboratory of Radiation Research of the RIVM. MiniBIOS is a simulation model for calculating the transport of radionuclides in the biosphere and the consequential radiation dose to humans. The

Bio-methane. Challenges and technical solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blaisonneau, Laurent; Carlu, Elieta; Feuillette, Vincent

2012-06-01

Among the new energy sectors in development, biogas has many benefits: several valorization possibilities (bio-methane, electricity and heat), continuous production, easy storage. In Europe, and particularly in France, the bio-methane market will be in the next years a driver for the improvement of the economic, environmental and social performance of the actors of the value chain of biogas. ENEA releases a report on the current state of the bio-methane market in Europe. This publication mainly describes: An outlook of the market evolution and the corresponding stakes for the actors of this sector, the technical and economic characteristics, maturity level and specificities of each biogas upgrading process, An analysis of the French regulatory framework for bio-methane injection into the grid

Tax exemption for bio fuels in Germany: is bio-ethanol really an option for climate policy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henke, J.M.; Klepper, G.; Schmitz, N.

2005-01-01

In 2002 the German Parliament decided to exempt biofuels from the gasoline tax to increase their competitiveness compared to conventional gasoline. The policy to promote biofuels is being justified by their allegedly positive effects on climate, energy, and agricultural policy goals. An increased use of biofuels would contribute to sustainable development by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and the use of non-renewable resources. The paper takes a closer look at bio-ethanol as a substitute for gasoline. It analyzes the underlying basic German, European, and worldwide conditions that provide the setting for the production and promotion of biofuels. It is shown that the production of bio-ethanol in Germany is not competitive and that imports are likely to increase. Using energy and greenhouse-gas balances we then demonstrate that the promotion and a possible increased use of bio-ethanol to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are economically inefficient and that there are preferred alternative strategies. In addition, scenarios of the future development of the bio-ethanol market are derived from a model that allows for variations in all decisive variables and reflects the entire production and trade chain of bio-ethanol, from the agricultural production of wheat and sugar beet to the consumption of bio-ethanol in the fuel sector. (author)

Tax exemption for bio fuels in Germany: is bio-ethanol really an option for climate policy?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henke, J.M.; Klepper, G. [Kiel Institute for World Economics, Kiel (Germany); Schmitz, N. [Meo Consulting Team, Koeln (Germany)

2005-11-01

In 2002 the German Parliament decided to exempt biofuels from the gasoline tax to increase their competitiveness compared to conventional gasoline. The policy to promote biofuels is being justified by their allegedly positive effects on climate, energy, and agricultural policy goals. An increased use of biofuels would contribute to sustainable development by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and the use of non-renewable resources. The paper takes a closer look at bio-ethanol as a substitute for gasoline. It analyzes the underlying basic German, European, and worldwide conditions that provide the setting for the production and promotion of biofuels. It is shown that the production of bio-ethanol in Germany is not competitive and that imports are likely to increase. Using energy and greenhouse-gas balances we then demonstrate that the promotion and a possible increased use of bio-ethanol to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are economically inefficient and that there are preferred alternative strategies. In addition, scenarios of the future development of the bio-ethanol market are derived from a model that allows for variations in all decisive variables and reflects the entire production and trade chain of bio-ethanol, from the agricultural production of wheat and sugar beet to the consumption of bio-ethanol in the fuel sector. (author)

The electromagnetic bio-field: clinical experiments and interferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Burnei, G; Hodorogea, D; Georgescu, I; Gavriliu, Ş; Drăghici, I; Dan, D; Vlad, C; Drăghici, L

2012-06-12

One of the most important factors is the technical and scientifically rapid development that is continually modifying the world we live in and polluting it with electromagnetic radiations. A functional and structural influence of magnetic and electromagnetic field on living organisms is presented in the literature by many performed experiments. The notion of bio-field represents the electromagnetic field generated by the bio-structures, not only in their normal physiological activities but also in their pathological states. There is a tight interdependency between the bio-field and the bio-structure, which respects the primary notion of an electromagnetic field given by the Maxwell-Faraday laws, in which, the electromagnetic phenomena are simplified to the field variations. These variations can be expressed in a coherent differential equation system that bounds the field vectors to different space points at different time moments. The living organisms cannot contain electrostatic and magneto-static fields due to the intense activity of the bio-structures. The biochemical reactions that have high rhythms and speeds always impose the electrodynamics character of the biologic field that also corresponds to the stability of the protein molecule that can be explained only through a dynamic way. The existent energy is not considered an exciting agent, and it does not lead to any effects. The parameters of these elementary bio-fields cannot yet be fully known due to technical reasons. The biological structures are very complex ones and undergo continuous dynamical activity. That is why the calculus model should be related to the constant dynamics, nowadays being very difficult to express.

Economic Impacts of Total Water Use Control in the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China—An Integrated CGE-BEM Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Na Li

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper develops an integrated modeling approach combined with a top-down dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model and a bottom-up bio-economic model (BEM to study the economic impact of a total water use control policy in the Heihe river basin, northwestern China. The integrated CGE-BEM model is regionally disaggregated with a variety of crops and livestock, and includes the responses of farmers and consequent feedback effects in the regional economic system. The results show that under the total water use control scenario, the water use structure is changed and water use efficiency is improved. The total water use control policy has limited negative impact on the regional economic growth with only a slightly lower growth rate of 13.38% compared with a growth rate of 14% by 2020 under a business as usual water use scenario. However, the total water use control policy has significant negative impacts on several sectors, especially agriculture and food processing. It is expected cropping systems will change through a replacement of water-intensive crops with water-efficient crops. Farmers’ incomes will decrease by 3.14%. In order to alleviate farmers’ income loss and deal with water use conflicts across different sectors and regions, the promotion of migration of surplus labor from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and the improvement of water use efficiency in agriculture are needed.

Perspectives of bio methane as a substitute for natural gas. Economic, ecologic and technical potential; Perspektiven von Biomethan als Erdgassubstitut. Oekonomisches, oekologisches und technisches Potenzial

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sachar, Jan-Claudio

2012-11-01

A possibility to supply energy from gaseous biomass is the generation of biogas and bio-SNG, respectively, with a subsequent conditioning to bio methane which can be fed in into the natural gas distribution system. Under this aspect, the author of the book under consideration reports on how the conventionally used natural gas can be substituted by the biogas. It is investigated whether the transformation of biogas or bio-SNG to bio methane is worthwhile under economic and ecologic aspects. It is also investigated to what extend natural gas can be exchanged by bio methane under consideration of the technical and legal frameworks.

Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Populations in Bio-remediation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Vasiliadou, Ioanna A.; Vayenas, Dimitris V.; Chrysikopoulos, Constantinos V.

2011-09-01

An understanding of bacterial behaviour concerns many field applications, such as the enhancement of water, wastewater and subsurface bio-remediation, the prevention of environmental pollution and the protection of human health. Numerous microorganisms have been identified to be able to degrade chemical pollutants, thus, a variety of bacteria are known that can be used in bio-remediation processes. In this study the development of mathematical models capable of describing bacterial behaviour considered in bio-augmentation plans, such as bacterial growth, consumption of nutrients, removal of pollutants, bacterial transport and attachment in porous media, is presented. The mathematical models may be used as a guide in designing and assessing the conditions under which areas contaminated with pollutants can be better remediated.

Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omri, Anis; Kahouli, Bassem

2014-01-01

This paper examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using dynamic panel data models in simultaneous-equations for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1990–2011 inclusive. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate this interrelationship for a number of sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. In the empirical part, we draw on the growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of capital stock, labor force and inflation, with foreign direct investment and energy. Generally, we show mixed results about the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth. - Highlights: • We examine the energy–FDI–growth nexus for a global panel of 65 countries. • Dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models are used to address this issue. • We also investigate this nexus for three sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. • We show mixed results about the interrelationship between the three variables

Structural studies on choline-carboxylate bio-ionic liquids by x-ray scattering and molecular dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanzi, Luana; Ramondo, Fabio; Caminiti, Ruggero; Campetella, Marco; Di Luca, Andrea; Gontrani, Lorenzo

2015-09-21

We report a X-ray diffraction and molecular dynamics study on three choline-based bio-ionic liquids, choline formate, [Ch] [For], choline propanoate, [Ch][Pro], and choline butanoate, [Ch][But]. For the first time, this class of ionic liquids has been investigated by X-ray diffraction. Experimental and theoretical structure factors have been compared for each term of the series. Local structural organization has been obtained from ab initio calculations through static models of isolated ion pairs and dynamic simulations of small portions of liquids through twelve, ten, and nine ion pairs for [Ch][For], [Ch][Pro], and [Ch][But], respectively. All the theoretical models indicate that cations and anions are connected by strong hydrogen bonding and form stable ion pairs in the liquid that are reminiscent of the static ab initio ion pairs. Different structural aspects may affect the radial distribution function, like the local structure of ion pairs and the conformation of choline. When small portions of liquids have been simulated by dynamic quantum chemical methods, some key structural features of the X-ray radial distribution function were well reproduced whereas the classical force fields here applied did not entirely reproduce all the observed structural features.

Structural studies on choline-carboxylate bio-ionic liquids by x-ray scattering and molecular dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanzi, Luana; Ramondo, Fabio; Caminiti, Ruggero; Campetella, Marco; Di Luca, Andrea; Gontrani, Lorenzo

2015-01-01

We report a X-ray diffraction and molecular dynamics study on three choline-based bio-ionic liquids, choline formate, [Ch] [For], choline propanoate, [Ch][Pro], and choline butanoate, [Ch][But]. For the first time, this class of ionic liquids has been investigated by X-ray diffraction. Experimental and theoretical structure factors have been compared for each term of the series. Local structural organization has been obtained from ab initio calculations through static models of isolated ion pairs and dynamic simulations of small portions of liquids through twelve, ten, and nine ion pairs for [Ch][For], [Ch][Pro], and [Ch][But], respectively. All the theoretical models indicate that cations and anions are connected by strong hydrogen bonding and form stable ion pairs in the liquid that are reminiscent of the static ab initio ion pairs. Different structural aspects may affect the radial distribution function, like the local structure of ion pairs and the conformation of choline. When small portions of liquids have been simulated by dynamic quantum chemical methods, some key structural features of the X-ray radial distribution function were well reproduced whereas the classical force fields here applied did not entirely reproduce all the observed structural features

Structural studies on choline-carboxylate bio-ionic liquids by x-ray scattering and molecular dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tanzi, Luana; Ramondo, Fabio, E-mail: fabio.ramondo@univaq.it [Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio, L’Aquila I-67100 (Italy); Caminiti, Ruggero; Campetella, Marco; Di Luca, Andrea; Gontrani, Lorenzo, E-mail: lorenzo.gontrani@uniroma1.it [Department of Chemistry, University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, P.le Aldo Moro 5, I-00185 Rome (Italy)

2015-09-21

We report a X-ray diffraction and molecular dynamics study on three choline-based bio-ionic liquids, choline formate, [Ch] [For], choline propanoate, [Ch][Pro], and choline butanoate, [Ch][But]. For the first time, this class of ionic liquids has been investigated by X-ray diffraction. Experimental and theoretical structure factors have been compared for each term of the series. Local structural organization has been obtained from ab initio calculations through static models of isolated ion pairs and dynamic simulations of small portions of liquids through twelve, ten, and nine ion pairs for [Ch][For], [Ch][Pro], and [Ch][But], respectively. All the theoretical models indicate that cations and anions are connected by strong hydrogen bonding and form stable ion pairs in the liquid that are reminiscent of the static ab initio ion pairs. Different structural aspects may affect the radial distribution function, like the local structure of ion pairs and the conformation of choline. When small portions of liquids have been simulated by dynamic quantum chemical methods, some key structural features of the X-ray radial distribution function were well reproduced whereas the classical force fields here applied did not entirely reproduce all the observed structural features.

Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, P F; Bokkers, E A M; van Middelaar, C E; Hogeveen, H; de Boer, I J M

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in dairy cows. This metabolic disorder occurs in the period around calving and is associated with an increased risk of other diseases. Therefore, SCK affects farm productivity and profitability. Estimating the economic impact of SCK may make farmers more aware of this problem, and can improve their decision-making regarding interventions to reduce SCK. We developed a dynamic stochastic simulation model that enables estimating the economic impact of SCK and related diseases (i.e. mastitis, metritis, displaced abomasum, lameness and clinical ketosis) occurring during the first 30 days after calving. This model, which was applied to a typical Dutch dairy herd, groups cows according to their parity (1 to 5+), and simulates the dynamics of SCK and related diseases, and milk production per cow during one lactation. The economic impact of SCK and related diseases resulted from a reduced milk production, discarded milk, treatment costs, costs from a prolonged calving interval and removal (culling or dying) of cows. The total costs of SCK were €130 per case per year, with a range between €39 and €348 (5 to 95 percentiles). The total costs of SCK per case per year, moreover, increased from €83 per year in parity 1 to €175 in parity 3. Most cows with SCK, however, had SCK only (61%), and costs were €58 per case per year. Total costs of SCK per case per year resulted for 36% from a prolonged calving interval, 24% from reduced milk production, 19% from treatment, 14% from discarded milk and 6% from removal. Results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the disease incidence, removal risk, relations of SCK with other diseases and prices of milk resulted in a high variation of costs of SCK. The costs of SCK, therefore, might differ per farm because of farm-specific circumstances. Improving data collection on the incidence of SCK and related diseases, and on consequences of

Is ‘Bio-Based’ Activity a Panacea for Sustainable Competitive Growth?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Philippidis, George; M’Barek, Robert; Ferrari, Emanuele

2016-01-01

Taking a European Union focus, this paper explicitly models competing uses of biomass to quantify its contribution toward a sustainable low carbon model of economic growth. To this end, a state-of-the-art multisector multiregion modelling tool is combined with a specially developed bio-based variant

A Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition algorithm for linear economic model predictive control of dynamically decoupled subsystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sokoler, Leo Emil; Standardi, Laura; Edlund, Kristian

2014-01-01

This paper presents a warm-started Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition algorithm tailored to economic model predictive control of dynamically decoupled subsystems. We formulate the constrained optimal control problem solved at each sampling instant as a linear program with state space constraints, input...... limits, input rate limits, and soft output limits. The objective function of the linear program is related directly to the cost of operating the subsystems, and the cost of violating the soft output constraints. Simulations for large-scale economic power dispatch problems show that the proposed algorithm...... is significantly faster than both state-of-the-art linear programming solvers, and a structure exploiting implementation of the alternating direction method of multipliers. It is also demonstrated that the control strategy presented in this paper can be tuned using a weighted ℓ1-regularization term...

Combining Bio-inspired Sensing with Bio-inspired Locomotion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shaikh, Danish; Hallam, John; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

In this paper we present a preliminary Braitenberg vehicle–like approach to combine bio-inspired audition with bio-inspired quadruped locomotion in simulation. Locomotion gaits of the salamander–like robot Salamandra robotica are modified by a lizard’s peripheral auditory system model that modula......In this paper we present a preliminary Braitenberg vehicle–like approach to combine bio-inspired audition with bio-inspired quadruped locomotion in simulation. Locomotion gaits of the salamander–like robot Salamandra robotica are modified by a lizard’s peripheral auditory system model...

Fractionation of plutonium in environmental and bio-shielding concrete samples using dynamic sequential extraction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qiao, Jixin; Hou, Xiaolin

2010-01-01

Fractionation of plutonium isotopes (238Pu, 239,240Pu) in environmental samples (i.e. soil and sediment) and bio-shielding concrete from decommissioning of nuclear reactor were carried out by dynamic sequential extraction using an on-line sequential injection (SI) system combined with a specially...

Real-time nonlinear feedback control of pattern formation in (bio)chemical reaction-diffusion processes: a model study.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt-Pollmann, U; Lebiedz, D; Diehl, M; Sager, S; Schlöder, J

2005-09-01

Theoretical and experimental studies related to manipulation of pattern formation in self-organizing reaction-diffusion processes by appropriate control stimuli become increasingly important both in chemical engineering and cellular biochemistry. In a model study, we demonstrate here exemplarily the application of an efficient nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) algorithm to real-time optimal feedback control of pattern formation in a bacterial chemotaxis system modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. The corresponding drift-diffusion model type is representative for many (bio)chemical systems involving nonlinear reaction dynamics and nonlinear diffusion. We show how the computed optimal feedback control strategy exploits the system inherent physical property of wave propagation to achieve desired control aims. We discuss various applications of our approach to optimal control of spatiotemporal dynamics.

A Mathematical Model for Simulating Remediation of Groundwater Contaminated by Heavy Metals using Bio-Carriers with Dead Baccilus sp. B1 and Polysulfone

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, H.; Wang, S.; Lee, M.

2010-12-01

The remediation of groundwater contaminated by heavy metals, organic contaminants, etc. using various types of bio-carriers has been widely studied as a novel technology in the literature. In this study, a series of batch experiments were conducted to investigated the fundamental characteristics in the removal process using bio-carriers (beads) with dead Bacillus sp. B1 and polysulfone. Through equilibrium and kinetic sorption experiments, sorption efficiencies for lead and copper under various conditions such as pH, temperature, contaminant concentration, etc. were examined and sorption parameters including maximum sorption capacities were obtained for model applications. Experimental data showed that equilibrium sorption patterns for Pb2+and Cu2+on bio-carrier beads follows Langmuir sorption isotherm and that the sorption dynamics can be described with a pseudo-second-order kinetics. One dimensional advective-dispersive-reactive transport model was also developed for simulating and analyzing the remediation processes. The HSDM (homogeneous surface diffusion model) were incorporated in the model to take into account the mass transfer and sorption mechanisms around/inside the bio-carrier beads. Applying the proposed model, numerical column experiments were carried out and the simulation results reasonably described temporal and spatial distribution of Pb2+and Cu2+in a fixed-bed flow-through sorption column. Experimental and numerical results showed that the main mechanism of the bio-carrier to remove heavy metals is the sorption on/inside of the bio-carriers and the bio-carriers can function as excellent biosorbents for the removal of heavy metal ions from groundwater.

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Bio-methane from an-aerobic digestion using activated carbon adsorption.

Science.gov (United States)

Farooq, Muhammad; Bell, Alexandra H; Almustapha, M N; Andresen, John M

2017-08-01

There is an increasing global demand for carbon-neutral bio-methane from an-aerobic digestion (AD) to be injected into national gas grids. Bio-gas, a methane -rich energy gas, is produced by microbial decomposition of organic matter through an-aerobic conditions where the presence of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide affects its performance. Although the microbiological process in the AD can be tailored to enhance the bio-gas composition, physical treatment is needed to convert the bio-gas into bio-methane. Water washing is the most common method for upgrading bio-gas for bio-methane production, but its large use of water is challenging towards industrial scale-up. Hence, the present study focuses on scale-up comparison of water washing with activated-carbon adsorption using HYSYS and Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. The models show that for plants processing less than 500 m 3 /h water scrubbing was cost effective compared with activated carbon. However, against current fossil natural-gas cost of about 1 p/kWh in the UK both relied heavily on governmental subsidies to become economically feasible. For plants operating at 1000 m 3 /hr, the treatment costs were reduced to below 1.5 p/kWh for water scrubbing and 0.9 p/kWh for activated carbon where the main benefits of activated carbon were lower capital and operating costs and virtually no water losses. It is envisioned that this method can significantly aid the production of sustainable bio-methane. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Biomass Resources for Energy and Materials in the Netherlands. Macro-economics biobased synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoefnagels, R.; Dornburg, V.; Faaij, A.; Banse, M.

2009-03-01

The Bio-based Raw Materials Platform (PGG), part of the Energy Transition in The Netherlands, commissioned the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Copernicus Institute of Utrecht University to conduct research on the macro-economic impact of large scale deployment of biomass for energy and materials in the Netherlands. Two model approaches were applied based on a consistent set of scenario assumptions: a bottom-up study including technoeconomic projections of fossil and bio-based conversion technologies and a topdown study including macro-economic modelling of (global) trade of biomass and fossil resources. The results of the top-down and bottom-up modelling work are reported separately. The results of the synthesis of the modelling work are presented in this report

Study on Evaporation Characteristics of Bio-oil and its Compound Models

OpenAIRE

Tan Long; Ming Li; Yixin Chen; Xifeng Zhu

2014-01-01

In this study, bio-oil was analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and the evaporation characteristics of bio-oil were studied at different heating rates (10, 20, and 30 °C/min) from 35 °C to 250 °C by a thermal analyzer (TG-DSC). The TG-DSC results of bio-oil showed that the heat requirement of bio-oil during the evaporation process ranged from 2.072103 to 2.299103 J/g, and the bio-oil activation energy ranged from 1.22×104 to 3.34×104 J/mol. Moreover, four models with fi...

Demand dynamic bio-girdling in heart failure: improved efficacy of dynamic cardiomyoplasty by LD contraction during aortic out-flow.

Science.gov (United States)

Carraro, U; Rigatelli, G; Rossini, K; Barbiero, M; Rigatelli, G

2003-03-01

The value of dynamic cardiomyoplasty has been brought into question by the disappointing results produced by slow contraction-relaxation cycle and possibly degeneration of the latissimus dorsi muscle (LD) secondary to temporary tenotomy and chronic daily electrical stimulation. Objective of our study is to determine whether daily periods of rest introduced by demand stimulation in the continuous contraction protocol produce systolic assistance and improve clinical results. Twelve dynamic cardiomyoplasty patients (mean age 58.2 +/- 5.8 years, M/F=11/1, sinus rhythm/atrial fibrillation=11/1) with dilated myocardiopathy were enrolled in an unrandomized trial of Demand Dynamic Heart Bio-Girdling in a public regional teaching hospital. Periods of LD inactivity, each lasting several hours, were introduced daily on a heart rate-based demand regime. To avoid full transformation of LD, fewer impulses per day were delivered, daily providing the LD with long periods of rest (Demand light stimulation). The contractile properties were measured by transcutaneous non-invasive LD tensiomyogram interrogation (LD tensiomyogram). Bio-Girdle activation was synchronized to heart beat by combining tensiomyogram and echocardiography. Clinical, echocardiographic and hemodynamic records, as well as aortic flow measurements by Doppler aortic flow wire were taken during the follow-up. Mean duration of the demand stimulation follow-up was 40.2+13.8 months. At five years, "Demand stimulation" shows: 1) no operative death; 2) 83% actuarial survival; 3) highly significant 47.4% decrease of the NYHA class (from 3.17 +/- 0.38 to 1.67 +/- 0.77, p=0.0001); 4) 41.6% improvement of LVEF (from 22.6 +/- 4.38 to 32.0 +/- 7.0, p=0.001); 5) 7.5 +/- 3.0% increase in aortic flow velocity peak in assisted vs. unassisted beats, and 6) preservation of LD from slowness (TFF value 33 +/- 7.86 at follow-up versus 15.8 +/- 11.1 Hz just before switching from continuous to demand stimulation, p=0.0001) and muscle

A non-linear model of economic production processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

Computational Methods to Assess the Production Potential of Bio-Based Chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Campodonico, Miguel A; Sukumara, Sumesh; Feist, Adam M; Herrgård, Markus J

2018-01-01

Elevated costs and long implementation times of bio-based processes for producing chemicals represent a bottleneck for moving to a bio-based economy. A prospective analysis able to elucidate economically and technically feasible product targets at early research phases is mandatory. Computational tools can be implemented to explore the biological and technical spectrum of feasibility, while constraining the operational space for desired chemicals. In this chapter, two different computational tools for assessing potential for bio-based production of chemicals from different perspectives are described in detail. The first tool is GEM-Path: an algorithm to compute all structurally possible pathways from one target molecule to the host metabolome. The second tool is a framework for Modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes, and economic impact assessment. Integrating GEM-Path and MuSIC will play a vital role in supporting early phases of research efforts and guide the policy makers with decisions, as we progress toward planning a sustainable chemical industry.

Decadal trends and common dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal characteristics of the African Great Lakes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Loiselle

Full Text Available The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world's most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0° to 8° south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation. Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers.

Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banks, W. F.

1977-07-29

The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

Science.gov (United States)

Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

2014-10-01

Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation and entropy for economic dynamic stochastic models: An exploration of overconsumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Argentiero, Amedeo; Bovi, Maurizio; Cerqueti, Roy

2016-01-01

This paper examines psycho-induced overconsumption in a dynamic stochastic context. As emphasized by well-established psychological results, these psycho-distortions derive from a decision making based on simple rules-of-thumb, not on analytically sounded optimizations. To our end, we therefore compare two New Keynesian models. The first is populated by optimizing Muth-rational agents and acts as the normative benchmark. The other is a “psycho-perturbed” version of the benchmark that allows for the potential presence of overoptimism and, hence, of overconsumption. The parameters of these models are estimated through a Bayesian-type procedure, and performances are evaluated by employing an entropy measure. Such methodologies are particularly appropriate here since they take in full consideration the complexity generated by the randomness of the considered systems. In particular, they let to derive a not negligible information on the size and on the cyclical properties of the biases. In line with cognitive psychology suggestions our evidence shows that the overoptimism/overconsumption is: widespread—it is detected in nation-wide data; persistent—it emerges in full-sample estimations; it moves according to the expected cyclical behavior—larger in booms, and it disappears in crises. Moreover, by taking into account the effect of these psycho-biases, the model fits actual data better than the benchmark. All considered, then, enhancing the existing literature our findings: i) sustain the importance of inserting psychological distortions in macroeconomic models and ii) underline that system dynamics and psycho biases have statistically significant and economically important connections.

Assessment of bio-fuel options for solid oxide fuel cell applications

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Jiefeng

Rising concerns of inadequate petroleum supply, volatile crude oil price, and adverse environmental impacts from using fossil fuels have spurred the United States to promote bio-fuel domestic production and develop advanced energy systems such as fuel cells. The present dissertation analyzed the bio-fuel applications in a solid oxide fuel cell-based auxiliary power unit from environmental, economic, and technological perspectives. Life cycle assessment integrated with thermodynamics was applied to evaluate the environmental impacts (e.g., greenhouse gas emission, fossil energy consumption) of producing bio-fuels from waste biomass. Landfill gas from municipal solid wastes and biodiesel from waste cooking oil are both suggested as the promising bio-fuel options. A nonlinear optimization model was developed with a multi-objective optimization technique to analyze the economic aspect of biodiesel-ethanol-diesel ternary blends used in transportation sectors and capture the dynamic variables affecting bio-fuel productions and applications (e.g., market disturbances, bio-fuel tax credit, policy changes, fuel specification, and technological innovation). A single-tube catalytic reformer with rhodium/ceria-zirconia catalyst was used for autothermal reformation of various heavy hydrocarbon fuels (e.g., diesel, biodiesel, biodiesel-diesel, and biodiesel-ethanol-diesel) to produce a hydrogen-rich stream reformates suitable for use in solid oxide fuel cell systems. A customized mixing chamber was designed and integrated with the reformer to overcome the technical challenges of heavy hydrocarbon reformation. A thermodynamic analysis, based on total Gibbs free energy minimization, was implemented to optimize the operating environment for the reformations of various fuels. This was complimented by experimental investigations of fuel autothermal reformation. 25% biodiesel blended with 10% ethanol and 65% diesel was determined to be viable fuel for use on a truck travelling with

State-space models for bio-loggers: A methodological road map

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsen, I.D.; Basson, M.; Bestley, S.

2012-01-01

Ecologists have an unprecedented array of bio-logging technologies available to conduct in situ studies of horizontal and vertical movement patterns of marine animals. These tracking data provide key information about foraging, migratory, and other behaviours that can be linked with bio-physical...... development of state-space modelling approaches for animal movement data provides statistical rigor for inferring hidden behavioural states, relating these states to bio-physical data, and ultimately for predicting the potential impacts of climate change. Despite the widespread utility, and current popularity...

Evolution of computational models in BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository.

Science.gov (United States)

Scharm, Martin; Gebhardt, Tom; Touré, Vasundra; Bagnacani, Andrea; Salehzadeh-Yazdi, Ali; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Waltemath, Dagmar

2018-04-12

A useful model is one that is being (re)used. The development of a successful model does not finish with its publication. During reuse, models are being modified, i.e. expanded, corrected, and refined. Even small changes in the encoding of a model can, however, significantly affect its interpretation. Our motivation for the present study is to identify changes in models and make them transparent and traceable. We analysed 13734 models from BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository. For each model, we studied the frequencies and types of updates between its first and latest release. To demonstrate the impact of changes, we explored the history of a Repressilator model in BioModels Database. We observed continuous updates in the majority of models. Surprisingly, even the early models are still being modified. We furthermore detected that many updates target annotations, which improves the information one can gain from models. To support the analysis of changes in model repositories we developed MoSt, an online tool for visualisations of changes in models. The scripts used to generate the data and figures for this study are available from GitHub https://github.com/binfalse/BiVeS-StatsGenerator and as a Docker image at https://hub.docker.com/r/binfalse/bives-statsgenerator/ . The website https://most.bio.informatik.uni-rostock.de/ provides interactive access to model versions and their evolutionary statistics. The reuse of models is still impeded by a lack of trust and documentation. A detailed and transparent documentation of all aspects of the model, including its provenance, will improve this situation. Knowledge about a model's provenance can avoid the repetition of mistakes that others already faced. More insights are gained into how the system evolves from initial findings to a profound understanding. We argue that it is the responsibility of the maintainers of model repositories to offer transparent model provenance to their users.

Economic Model Predictive Control of Bihormonal Artificial Pancreas System Based on Switching Control and Dynamic R-parameter.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Fengna; Wang, Youqing

2017-11-01

Blood glucose (BG) regulation is a long-term task for people with diabetes. In recent years, more and more researchers have attempted to achieve automated regulation of BG using automatic control algorithms, called the artificial pancreas (AP) system. In clinical practice, it is equally important to guarantee the treatment effect and reduce the treatment costs. The main motivation of this study is to reduce the cure burden. The dynamic R-parameter economic model predictive control (R-EMPC) is chosen to regulate the delivery rates of exogenous hormones (insulin and glucagon). It uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) to optimize the economic cost function and the switching logic between insulin delivery and glucagon delivery is designed based on switching control theory. The proposed method is first tested on the standard subject; the result is compared with the switching PID and the switching MPC. The effect of the dynamic R-parameter on improving the control performance is illustrated by comparing the results of the EMPC and the R-EMPC. Finally, the robustness tests on meal change (size and timing), hormone sensitivity (insulin and glucagon), and subject variability are performed. All results show that the proposed method can improve the control performance and reduce the economic costs. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on improving the tracking performance, enhancing robustness, and reducing economic costs. The method proposed in this study owns great worth in practical application.

The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cristelli, Matthieu; Tacchella, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2015-01-01

What will be the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the competitiveness of China, United States, and Vietnam in the next 3, 5 or 10 years? Despite this kind of questions has a large societal impact and an extreme value for economic policy making, providing a scientific basis for economic predictability is still a very challenging problem. Recent results of a new branch--Economic Complexity--have set the basis for a framework to approach such a challenge and to provide new perspectives to cast economic prediction into the conceptual scheme of forecasting the evolution of a dynamical system as in the case of weather dynamics. We argue that a recently introduced non-monetary metrics for country competitiveness (fitness) allows for quantifying the hidden growth potential of countries by the means of the comparison of this measure for intangible assets with monetary figures, such as GDP per capita. This comparison defines the fitness-income plane where we observe that country dynamics presents strongly heterogeneous patterns of evolution. The flow in some zones is found to be laminar while in others a chaotic behavior is instead observed. These two regimes correspond to very different predictability features for the evolution of countries: in the former regime, we find strong predictable pattern while the latter scenario exhibits a very low predictability. In such a framework, regressions, the usual tool used in economics, are no more the appropriate strategy to deal with such a heterogeneous scenario and new concepts, borrowed from dynamical systems theory, are mandatory. We therefore propose a data-driven method--the selective predictability scheme--in which we adopt a strategy similar to the methods of analogues, firstly introduced by Lorenz, to assess future evolution of countries.

The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Cristelli, Matthieu; Tacchella, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2015-01-01

What will be the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the competitiveness of China, United States, and Vietnam in the next 3, 5 or 10 years? Despite this kind of questions has a large societal impact and an extreme value for economic policy making, providing a scientific basis for economic predictability is still a very challenging problem. Recent results of a new branch—Economic Complexity—have set the basis for a framework to approach such a challenge and to provide new perspectives to cast economic prediction into the conceptual scheme of forecasting the evolution of a dynamical system as in the case of weather dynamics. We argue that a recently introduced non-monetary metrics for country competitiveness (fitness) allows for quantifying the hidden growth potential of countries by the means of the comparison of this measure for intangible assets with monetary figures, such as GDP per capita. This comparison defines the fitness-income plane where we observe that country dynamics presents strongly heterogeneous patterns of evolution. The flow in some zones is found to be laminar while in others a chaotic behavior is instead observed. These two regimes correspond to very different predictability features for the evolution of countries: in the former regime, we find strong predictable pattern while the latter scenario exhibits a very low predictability. In such a framework, regressions, the usual tool used in economics, are no more the appropriate strategy to deal with such a heterogeneous scenario and new concepts, borrowed from dynamical systems theory, are mandatory. We therefore propose a data-driven method—the selective predictability scheme—in which we adopt a strategy similar to the methods of analogues, firstly introduced by Lorenz, to assess future evolution of countries. PMID:25671312

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

Technological Exports and the Dynamics of Ukraine’s Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Cherkass

2006-03-01

Full Text Available This article examines the promotion of technological exports in the context of making products competitive on the world market at the expense of quantified but not qualified factors. The author describes the destructive consequences of primary export growth. Relying on a designed structural model, she analyzes factors pertaining to technological exports and industrial production, and also evaluates the effectiveness of promoting exports for economic growth. She demonstrates the negative effect of the devaluation of the hryvnia on industrial production growth and the currency’s neutrality as a factor in the promotion of technological exports. The article establishes that technological exports determine to a considerable extent the dynamics of Ukraine’s economic growth, while the exports of raw materials worsen these indicators. The author shows that the export of metal products stands in the way of increasing technological export, and offers her recommendations to improve the dynamics of economic growth.

Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

2001-01-01

This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

The Impact of Public Spending on Regional Economic Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Antonio Mendoza Tolosa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The impact that public spending and investment have upon economic growth in the departments of Colombia is examined using the results of national accounts for the years 2000-2011. Figures for departmental production by activity, along with change over the period and information for the gross public capital are brought together to create a statistical model to assess effects. A data panel model is chosen to relate the existing differences between departments and compare the impact of spending and investment between departments using the available information. Results indicate that public spending and investment play an important role in departmental economic dynamic and that its effect is greater in larger and wealthier departments.

Economic response to harvest and effort control in fishery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, Ayoe; Frost, Hans

for fisheries management. The report outlines bio-economic models, which are designed to shed light on the efficiency of different management tools in terms of quota or effort restrictions given the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy about sustainable and economic viable fisheries. The report addresses...... the complexities of biological and economic interaction in a multispecies, multifleet framework and outlines consistent mathematical models....

Secure Hashing of Dynamic Hand Signatures Using Wavelet-Fourier Compression with BioPhasor Mixing and Discretization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wai Kuan Yip

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce a novel method for secure computation of biometric hash on dynamic hand signatures using BioPhasor mixing and discretization. The use of BioPhasor as the mixing process provides a one-way transformation that precludes exact recovery of the biometric vector from compromised hashes and stolen tokens. In addition, our user-specific discretization acts both as an error correction step as well as a real-to-binary space converter. We also propose a new method of extracting compressed representation of dynamic hand signatures using discrete wavelet transform (DWT and discrete fourier transform (DFT. Without the conventional use of dynamic time warping, the proposed method avoids storage of user's hand signature template. This is an important consideration for protecting the privacy of the biometric owner. Our results show that the proposed method could produce stable and distinguishable bit strings with equal error rates (EERs of and for random and skilled forgeries for stolen token (worst case scenario, and for both forgeries in the genuine token (optimal scenario.

Derivation of economic values for production traits in aquaculture species

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, K.P.E.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Besson, M.B.; Komen, J.

2017-01-01

Background:
In breeding programs for aquaculture species, breeding goal traits are often weighted based on the desired gains but economic gain would be higher if economic values were used instead. The objectives of this study were: (1) to develop a bio-economic model to derive economic values

Dynamic motifs in socio-economic networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xin; Shao, Shuai; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2014-12-01

Socio-economic networks are of central importance in economic life. We develop a method of identifying and studying motifs in socio-economic networks by focusing on “dynamic motifs,” i.e., evolutionary connection patterns that, because of “node acquaintances” in the network, occur much more frequently than random patterns. We examine two evolving bi-partite networks: i) the world-wide commercial ship chartering market and ii) the ship build-to-order market. We find similar dynamic motifs in both bipartite networks, even though they describe different economic activities. We also find that “influence” and “persistence” are strong factors in the interaction behavior of organizations. When two companies are doing business with the same customer, it is highly probable that another customer who currently only has business relationship with one of these two companies, will become customer of the second in the future. This is the effect of influence. Persistence means that companies with close business ties to customers tend to maintain their relationships over a long period of time.

Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. D. Lazarus

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

Dynamic analysis of a bio-inspired climbing robot using ADAMS-Simulink co-simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyay, P.; Dikshit, H.; Majumder, A.; Ghoshal, S.; Maity, A.

2018-04-01

Climbing robot has been an area of interest since the demand of inspection of pipeline, nuclear power plant, and various big structure is growing up rapidly. This paper represents the development of a bio-inspired modular robot which mimics inchworm locomotion during climbing. In the present paper, the climbing motion is achieved only on a flat vertical plane by magnetic adhesion principle. The robot is modelled as a 4-link planar mechanism with three revolute joints actuated by DC servo motors. Sinusoidal gait pattern is used to approximate the motion of an inchworm. The dynamics of the robot is presented by using ADAMS/MATLAB co-simulation methodology. The simulation result gives the maximum value of joint torque during one complete cycle of motion. This torque value is used for the selection of servo motor specifications required to build the prototype.

Techno-economic assessment of micro-algae as feedstock for renewable bio-energy production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonker, J.G.G.; Faaij, A.P.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2013-01-01

This paper determines the energy consumption ratio and overall bio-energy production costs of microalgae cultivation, harvesting and conversion to secondary energy carriers, thus helping to clarify future perspectives of micro-algae production for energy purposes. A limitation growth model is

[Current status of bio-based materials industry in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Diao, Xiaoqian; Weng, Yunxuan; Huang, Zhigang; Yang, Nan; Wang, Xiyuan; Zhang, Min; Jin, Yujuan

2016-06-25

In recent years, bio-based materials are becoming a new dominant industry leading the scientific and technological innovation, and economic development of the world. We reviewed the new development of bio-based materials industry in China, analyzed the entire market of bio-based materials products comprehensively, and also stated the industry status of bio-based chemicals, such as lactic acid, 1,3-propanediol, and succinic acid; biodegradable bio-based polymers, such as co-polyester of diacid and diol, polylactic acid, carbon dioxide based copolymer, polyhydroxyalknoates, polycaprolactone, and thermoplastic bio-based plastics; non-biodegradable bio-based polymers, such as bio-based polyamide, polytrimethylene terephthalate, bio-based polyurethane, and bio-based fibers.

OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TĂNĂSESCU ANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

Interactive computer graphics for bio-stereochemical modelling

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Proc, Indian Acad. Sci., Vol. 87 A (Chem. Sci.), No. 4, April 1978, pp. 95-113, (e) printed in India. Interactive computer graphics for bio-stereochemical modelling. ROBERT REIN, SHLOMONIR, KAREN HAYDOCK and. ROBERTD MACELROY. Department of Experimental Pathology, Roswell Park Memorial Institute,. 666 Elm ...

Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernst Berg

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We investigated the economic dynamics of the German hog-price cycle with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied Nonlinear Time Series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology, and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers.

Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

2012-12-01

For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

Bio-diesel: A candidate for a Nigeria energy mix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eze, T.; Dim, L. A.; Funtua, I. I.; Oladipo, M. O. A.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a review of bio-diesel development and economic potentials. The basics of biodiesel and its production technology are described. Attention is given to development potential, challenges and prospests of bio-diesel in Nigeria with ground facts on bio-diesel production feasibility in Nigeria highlighted.

Where to implement local biotech innovations? A framework for multi-scale socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of Green Bio-Refineries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cong, Ronggang; Stefaniak, Irena; Madsen, Bjarne

2017-01-01

Green Bio-Refineries (GBRs) have economic and environmental potentials through changing land use from cereals to grass production and provision of grass-based protein feed for livestock production and other valuable byproducts. However, the potentials are dependent on local conditions of the GBRs...

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

MATHEMATIC MODELING IN ANALYSIS OF BIO-GAS PURIFICATION FROM CARBON DIOXIDE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. A. Losiouk

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The paper considers a possibility to involve bio-gas generated at testing grounds of hard domestic garbage in power supply system in the Republic of Belarus. An example of optimization using mathematical modeling of plant operation which is used for bio-gas enrichment is given in the paper. 

Role of bio-effect models in improving radiotherapy of cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, B.S.

2013-01-01

Application of linear quadratic model of cell survival in radiotherapy has enabled to successfully predict the response of both the normal tissues and tumours. Even the simplest form of BED (biological effective dose) equation for fractionated radiotherapy could precisely predict the late normal tissue complications resulting from large dose per fraction. These observations have led to the development MFD (multiple fractions daily) protocol, with the specific objective of reducing late normal tissue morbidity. Protraction of treatment and consequent loss of BED and tumour control; multiple fractions delivered without adequate intervals resulting in incomplete repair of sub-lethal damage and consequent normal tissue complications, have been explained successfully by the LQ model. In the recent past LDR (low dose rate) brachytherapy is mostly replaced by HDR (high dose rate) technique. A series of calculations based on tumour bio-kinetics parameters, as well as the geometric sparing provides a sound rationale for replacing LDR technique by HDR technique. Some of the calculations relevant to this will be presented during this talk. Bio-effect models can also provide insight in to the rationale of RIT (radio-immunotherapy). With an adequate knowledge of biological half-life of antibodies in the tumour/critical organs, and biological uptake half-time in the tumour, it is possible to evaluate the efficacy of a number of radio-nuclides in RIT. Calculations based on LQ models suggest that longer lived isotopes such as 32 P, 86 Rb, 144m In may have an advantage over the shorter lived radio-nuclides. A clear knowledge of the various parameters like/values, potentially doubling time of tumour and other bio-kinetic parameters may hold the key for successful application of bio-effect models in predicting the response to radiotherapy. Feedback from the clinics will further help in refining and validating the existing models. (author)

Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Economics

OpenAIRE

William Barnett; Apostolos Serletis; Demitre Serletis

2012-01-01

This paper is an up-to-date survey of the state-of-the-art in dynamical systems theory relevant to high levels of dynamical complexity, characterizing chaos and near chaos, as commonly found in the physical sciences. The paper also surveys applications in economics and �finance. This survey does not include bifurcation analyses at lower levels of dynamical complexity, such as Hopf and transcritical bifurcations, which arise closer to the stable region of the parameter space. We discuss the...

Economic dynamics with financial fragility and mean-field interaction: A model

Science.gov (United States)

Di Guilmi, C.; Gallegati, M.; Landini, S.

2008-06-01

Following Aoki’s statistical mechanics methodology [Masanao Aoki, New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 1996; Masanao Aoki, Modeling Aggregate Behaviour and Fluctuations in Economics, Cambridge University Press, 2002; Masanao Aoki, and Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Reconstructing Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press, 2006], we provide some insights into the well-known works of [Bruce Greenwald, Joseph Stiglitz, Macroeconomic models with equity and credit rationing, in: R. Hubbard (Ed.), Information, Capital Markets and Investment, Chicago University Press, Chicago, 1990; Bruce Greenwald, Joseph Stiglitz, Financial markets imperfections and business cycles, Quarterly journal of Economics (1993)]. Specifically, we reach analytically a closed form solution of their models overcoming the aggregation problem. The key idea is to represent the economy as an evolving complex system, composed by heterogeneous interacting agents, that can be partitioned into a space of macroscopic states. This meso level of aggregation permits to adopt mean-field interaction modeling and master equation techniques.

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

OpenAIRE

Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-01-01

This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...

Creation and modelling of bio-cleaning, and rehabilitation systems of territories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mineeva, N.Ya.; Markelov, A.V.; Markelov, D.A.; Dmitriev, S.A.; Sobolev, A.I.; Petrov, A.S.; Prokuronov, I.B.

2005-01-01

Classification and inventory of bio-cleaning and rehabilitation system for areas were developed on the basis of functional capabilities of biota. The paper provides the principal schemes and models of biopotential use in target barriers - 'Radioactive contamination localization', 'Environmental Sanitation','Contaminated Areas Restoration' - and algorithms for creation of bio-barriers and determination of tolerance of regional limits. (author)

Preclinical MRI and NMR Bio-markers of Alzheimer's Disease: Concepts and Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhenain, M.; Dhenain, M.; Dhenain, M.

2008-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is an important social and economic issue for our societies. The development of therapeutics against this severe dementia requires assessing the effects of new drugs in animal models thanks to dedicated bio-markers. This review first overviews Alzheimer's disease and its models as well as the concept of bio-markers. It then focuses on MRI and NMR bio-markers of Alzheimer's disease in animals. Anatomical markers such as atrophy and angiography are useful to phenotype newly developed models of Alzheimer's disease, even if the alterations in these animals are not as severe as in humans. Amyloid plaques imaging is a promising marker of the pathology in animals, and is a rapidly evolving field of MRI. Functional methods such as perfusion and diffusion imaging or spectroscopy are able to detect alterations in transgenic mice mimicking Alzheimer and also to show similar alterations than in humans. They can thus be good translational markers of the disease. Manganese-Enhanced MRI shows a reduction of neuronal transportation in transgenic models of Alzheimer and it allows monitoring improvements induced by treatments of the disease. It is thus a promising bio-marker of the pathology in animals. (authors)

Evaluation of syngas production unit cost of bio-gasification facility using regression analysis techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deng, Yangyang; Parajuli, Prem B.

2011-08-10

Evaluation of economic feasibility of a bio-gasification facility needs understanding of its unit cost under different production capacities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the unit cost of syngas production at capacities from 60 through 1800Nm 3/h using an economic model with three regression analysis techniques (simple regression, reciprocal regression, and log-log regression). The preliminary result of this study showed that reciprocal regression analysis technique had the best fit curve between per unit cost and production capacity, with sum of error squares (SES) lower than 0.001 and coefficient of determination of (R 2) 0.996. The regression analysis techniques determined the minimum unit cost of syngas production for micro-scale bio-gasification facilities of $0.052/Nm 3, under the capacity of 2,880 Nm 3/h. The results of this study suggest that to reduce cost, facilities should run at a high production capacity. In addition, the contribution of this technique could be the new categorical criterion to evaluate micro-scale bio-gasification facility from the perspective of economic analysis.

Design and manufacturing of bio-based sandwich structures

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

John, Maya J

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this chapter is to discuss the design and manufacturing of bio-based sandwich structures. As the economic advantages of weight reduction have become mandatory for many advanced industries, bio-based sandwich panels have emerged...

Complex biological and bio-inspired systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ecke, Robert E [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

The understanding and characterization ofthe fundamental processes of the function of biological systems underpins many of the important challenges facing American society, from the pathology of infectious disease and the efficacy ofvaccines, to the development of materials that mimic biological functionality and deliver exceptional and novel structural and dynamic properties. These problems are fundamentally complex, involving many interacting components and poorly understood bio-chemical kinetics. We use the basic science of statistical physics, kinetic theory, cellular bio-chemistry, soft-matter physics, and information science to develop cell level models and explore the use ofbiomimetic materials. This project seeks to determine how cell level processes, such as response to mechanical stresses, chemical constituents and related gradients, and other cell signaling mechanisms, integrate and combine to create a functioning organism. The research focuses on the basic physical processes that take place at different levels ofthe biological organism: the basic role of molecular and chemical interactions are investigated, the dynamics of the DNA-molecule and its phylogenetic role are examined and the regulatory networks of complex biochemical processes are modeled. These efforts may lead to early warning algorithms ofpathogen outbreaks, new bio-sensors to detect hazards from pathomic viruses to chemical contaminants. Other potential applications include the development of efficient bio-fuel alternative-energy processes and the exploration ofnovel materials for energy usages. Finally, we use the notion of 'coarse-graining,' which is a method for averaging over less important degrees of freedom to develop computational models to predict cell function and systems-level response to disease, chemical stress, or biological pathomic agents. This project supports Energy Security, Threat Reduction, and the missions of the DOE Office of Science through its efforts to

Building executable biological pathway models automatically from BioPAX

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Willemsen, Timo; Feenstra, Anton; Groth, Paul

2013-01-01

The amount of biological data exposed in semantic formats is steadily increasing. In particular, pathway information (a model of how molecules interact within a cell) from databases such as KEGG and WikiPathways are available in a standard RDF-based format BioPAX. However, these models are

Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

OpenAIRE

Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

2006-01-01

Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

Households And Bio-Resources In Plateau State Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dasogot, A.D.

2002-01-01

The paper examines household dynamics as variables for bio-resource or biomass resource potentials and utilisation. Information was collected from 250 randomly selected households in five villages of the State, mainly using questionnaire administered on household heads, and a direct measurement/observation about what households have, do or say concerning the study problem. It was shown that insignificant quantity were utilised for various purposes like cooking and heating, but the bio-resources generated met both domestic and income needs of the households. It was concluded that beneficial use (compost, biogas or generation of electricity) should be found for the largely unused bio-resources and household dynamics should be integrated into bio-resource energy planning

Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

2009-01-01

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

Bio-Park Pereira [Colombia]: Flora and Fauna Parkland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Carlos de León Naranjo

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The project aims to build a parkland in the sub-urban area of Pereira, (Cerritos sector in the center of the Coffee Region of Colombia, which in addition to its tourism and recreation, contributes to the conservation of wildlife through education, research, and ecologically viable actions, economically viable and socially equitable. This project is considered a major project for the city of Pereira, as it strives to be a tourist attraction level not just regionally but nationally and internationally, which will close and friendly interaction with native flora and fauna and exotic providing healthy recreation while promoting the preservation of biodiversity. In Bio-parque be plotted four bio-regions: African Savanna, African Rainforest, Asian mangroves, South American Cliffs, and three bio-regions of Colombia: Andean Forest, Arid Caribbean and Amazon. Human cultures of each of these regions are also highlighted as examples of the wide adaptability of human beings. The main objective of the educational message in Bioparque is to show how the survival and welfare of living beings, both human and of animal and plant species depend on the knowledge and awareness of natural history, dynamics and accurate management of their different living conditions interaction.

Static and dynamic models in economics

Science.gov (United States)

Safiullin, N. Z.; Safiullin, B. L.

2018-05-01

In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.

Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gardini, L.; Hommes, C.; Tramontana, F.; de Vilder, R.

2009-01-01

In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the

Complex Price Dynamics in the Modified Kaldorian Model

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kodera, Jan; Van Tran, Q.; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2013-01-01

Roč. 22, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-384 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Priice dynamics, * numerical examples * two-equation model * four-equation model * nonlinear time series analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kodera-model of price dynamics and chaos.pdf

Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

CERN Document Server

Hritonenko, Natali

2013-01-01

Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

Ramie (Boehmeria nivea) decortication waste bio-briquette business model canvas with design thinking approach

Science.gov (United States)

Pahlavi, Ghifari Rezka; Purnomo, Dwi; Bunyamin, Anas; Wulandari, Asri Peni

2017-03-01

Ramie (Boehmeria nivea) is a plant that can produce fibers from its stem but in the production process, it still produces waste containing high lignin and cellulose. The high content of these substances can be used as bio-briquette raw material because they can produce carbon and can offer a business opportunity to establish bio-briquette industry. The purpose of this study is to obtain a ramie decortification waste bio-briquette business model because until now there is no bio-briquette has been made from ramie decortication waste as its raw material. This research uses descriptive analysis method with a design thinking approach. The result of this research shows that the business model canvas is designed based on consumer's experience when interacting with the product via customer journey tool in order to get the business model in accordance with customer expectations.

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

2008-12-01

Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

Transforming Healthcare Delivery: Integrating Dynamic Simulation Modelling and Big Data in Health Economics and Outcomes Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Padula, William V; IJzerman, Maarten J; Wong, Peter K; Higashi, Mitchell K; Engbers, Jordan; Wiebe, Samuel; Crown, William; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2016-02-01

In the era of the Information Age and personalized medicine, healthcare delivery systems need to be efficient and patient-centred. The health system must be responsive to individual patient choices and preferences about their care, while considering the system consequences. While dynamic simulation modelling (DSM) and big data share characteristics, they present distinct and complementary value in healthcare. Big data and DSM are synergistic-big data offer support to enhance the application of dynamic models, but DSM also can greatly enhance the value conferred by big data. Big data can inform patient-centred care with its high velocity, volume, and variety (the three Vs) over traditional data analytics; however, big data are not sufficient to extract meaningful insights to inform approaches to improve healthcare delivery. DSM can serve as a natural bridge between the wealth of evidence offered by big data and informed decision making as a means of faster, deeper, more consistent learning from that evidence. We discuss the synergies between big data and DSM, practical considerations and challenges, and how integrating big data and DSM can be useful to decision makers to address complex, systemic health economics and outcomes questions and to transform healthcare delivery.

SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tommaso Russo

Full Text Available Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries, a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1 spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2 an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3 a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in

SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

2014-01-01

Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

CERN Document Server

Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

2016-01-01

This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenhua Hu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

Bio-Security Proficiencies Project for Beginning Producers in 4-H

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Martin H.; Meehan, Cheryl L.; Borba, John A.

2014-01-01

Improving bio-security practices among 4-H members who raise and show project animals is important. Bio-security measures can reduce the risk of disease spread and mitigate potential health and economic risks of disease outbreaks involving animal and zoonotic pathogens. Survey data provided statistical evidence that the Bio-Security Proficiencies…

Resource recovery from bio-based production processes: a future necessity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mansouri, Seyed Soheil; S.B.A. Udugama, Isuru; Cignitti, Stefano

2017-01-01

The promise of transforming waste streams with small economic value into valuable products makes resource recovery technologies in bio-based production processes an attractive proposition. However, the use of resource recovery technologies in industrial applications is still minimal, despite its...... technologies to industrial bio-based production processes. The role and importance of economics, technology readiness and socio-environmental impacts of resource recovery in successfully implementing resource recovery technologies in industrial bio-based production processes is also discussed. Finally, based...... wide use in closely related processes such as dairy production. In this paper, a perspective on the role of resource recovery in bio-based production processes is provided through reviewing the past practice and identifying the benefits, opportunities and challenges of introducing resource recovery...

Innovations and economic success in Finnish equine and bio-energy enterprises; Innovaatiotoiminta ja taloudellinen menestyminen hevosalan ja bioenergia-alan pienyrityksissae

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tiilikainen, S.

2009-07-01

Cluster of industries is the critical mass of industries, which are located into certain geographical areas. In cluster supporting and related industries are linked through vertical and a horizontal relationship. Rural clusters are based on local traditions, resources and knowledge. The key advantage of cluster of industries is the fact that innovations are often created in them. The purpose of this study is to find out how creation of innovations can be improved in rural cluster of industries. The subject of this study is the link between innovations and the financial success of enterprises. The research questions are formulated as: What kinds of innovations take place in equine and bio-energy enterprises? How different factors affect to innovations made in these enterprises? How does competitiveness, the economic success of enterprises relate these innovations? Theoretical background of the study lies on the Schumpeter's' theory of entrepreneurship and innovations are defined broadly as doing new things or doing things already done on a new way. Data were collected by postal survey in August 2008 (n =165), the respondents were equine entrepreneurs from Uusimaa region and bio-energy entrepreneurs in Pohjois-Pohjanmaa region. Data were analysed using multivariate analyses. The study results reveal that, most of the innovations related to services or pricing the services. It was fairly uncommon to develop new business models, which was worrying, because many of the enterprises had enlarged or invested heavily on the capacity. The economic success did relate to innovations; those enterprises who performed poorly had not introduced any innovations or improvements during past three years, whist enterprises with good or average performance had introduced innovations or improvements. (orig.)

Which future for aviation bio-fuels?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botti, Jean; Combarnous, Michel; Jarry, Bruno; Monsan, Pierre; Burzynski, Jean-Pierre; Jeuland, Nicolas; Porot, Pierre; Demoment, Pascale; Gillmann, Marc; Marchand, Philippe; Kuentzmann, Paul; Kurtsoglou, Nicolas; Lombaert-Valot, Isabelle; Pelegrin, Marc; Renvier, Jacques; Rousseau, Julien; Stadler, Thierry; Tremeau, Benoit

2014-01-01

This collective report proposes a detailed overview of the evolution of aviation fuels and bio-fuels from technological, regulatory and economic points of view. It also proposes a road-map for possible future evolutions, and outlines the different assessments between American and European countries regarding the predictions for the beginning of industrial production and use of bio-jet-fuel. After having recalled international objectives, an overview of European and French commitments for technological and operational advances, and a discussion of the role of bio-fuels in the carbon cycle, the report presents various technical constraints met in aircraft industry and describes the role bio-fuels may have. The next part proposes an overview of bio-fuels which are industrially produced in the world in 2013. The authors then focus on aviation bio-fuels (main production processes, thermo-chemical processes), discuss the political context, and examine obstacles, partnerships and the role of public authorities

Firm Dynamics and Markup Variations: Implications for Sunspot Equilibria and Endogenous Economic Fluctuation

OpenAIRE

Nir Jaimovich

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes how the interaction between firms’ entry-and-exit decisions and variations in competition gives rise to self-fulfilling, expectation-driven fluctuations in aggregate economic activity and in measured total factor productivity (TFP). The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which net business formation is endogenously procyclical and leads to endogenous countercyclical variations in markups. This interaction leads to indeterminacy in which economic fl...

Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in the Mortality of Danish Males Using a New Affluence Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cairns, Andrew J.G.; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene; Rosenskjold, Carsten Paysen T.

We investigate and model how the mortality of Danish males aged 55-94 has changed over the period 1985-2012. We divide the population into ten socio-economic subgroups using a new measure of affluence that combines wealth and income reported on the Statistics Denmark national register database...... possible without losing the essential character of the raw data. The model produces bio-demographically reasonable forecasts of mortality rates that preserve the sub-group rankings at all ages. It also satisfies reasonableness criteria related to the term structure of correlations across ages and over time...

A compartmental model of the cAMP/PKA/MAPK pathway in Bio-PEPA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federica Ciocchetta

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of biochemical systems involve the exchange of information between different compartments, either in the form of transportation or via the intervention of membrane proteins which are able to transmit stimuli between bordering compartments. The correct quantitative handling of compartments is, therefore, extremely important when modelling real biochemical systems. The Bio-PEPA process algebra is equipped with the capability of explicitly defining quantitative information such as compartment volumes and membrane surface areas. Furthermore, the recent development of the Bio-PEPA Eclipse Plug-in allows us to perform a correct stochastic simulation of multi-compartmental models. Here we present a Bio-PEPA compartmental model of the cAMP/PKA/MAPK pathway. We analyse the system using the Bio-PEPA Eclipse Plug-in and we show the correctness of our model by comparison with an existing ODE model. Furthermore, we perform computational experiments in order to investigate certain properties of the pathway. Specifically, we focus on the system response to the inhibition and strengthening of feedback loops and to the variation in the activity of key pathway reactions and we observe how these modifications affect the behaviour of the pathway. These experiments are useful to understand the control and regulatory mechanisms of the system.

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, E J; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, A A; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

2018-01-01

Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors.

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

1980-09-01

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

A dynamic model of the greenhouse effect and its control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perman, R.; Nisbet, R.; Ma, Y.

1991-01-01

A dynamic model is developed for the analysis of programmes to control the greenhouse effect. The model uses simplified representations of physical processes determining climate change, linked to an economic model of emissions and emissions abatement. Feedbacks between physical and economic processes are incorporated, and the costs of emissions reduction are compared with the benefits through averted damage. Simulation analyses explore the relative merits of several intervention scenarios, each of which is compared with non intervention. Throughout the paper, emphasis is placed upon the long term consequences of behaviour, and the patterns of dynamic adjustment over time. (author)

Extensive Investigations on Bio-Inspired Trust and Reputation Model over Hops Coefficient Factor in Distributed Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinod Kumar Verma

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Resource utilization requires a substantial consideration for a trust and reputation model to be deployed within a wireless sensor network (WSN. In the evaluation, our attention is focused on the effect of hops coefficient factor estimation on WSN with bio-inspired trust and reputation model (BTRM. We present the state-of-the-art system level evaluation of accuracy and path length of sensor node operations for their current and average scenarios. Additionally, we emphasized over the energy consumption evaluation for static, dynamic and oscillatory modes of BTRM-WSN model. The performance of the hops coefficient factor for our proposed framework is evaluated via analytic bounds and numerical simulations.

Researches on modeling of nuclear power plants for dynamic response analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watabe, M.; Fukuzawa, R.; Chiba, O.; Toritani, T.

1983-01-01

The authors tried to establish the rational and economical model due to the vertical component considering the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects and the flexibility of the mat foundation. Three types of models were introduced. 1) Finite element model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations with the finite element model were performed in which the mat foundation was treated rigid and elastic body. The dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated based on the condition that soil was semiinfinite elastic medium. 2) Sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations were performed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of the finite element models mentioned above using the sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model, in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated with the same procedure applied to the finite element model. 3) Simplified mass-spring-dashpot model. There were introduced three types of the simplified mass-spring-dashpot model in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were simplified. Response analyses due to harmonic excitations and earthquake ground motions were performed in order to establish the rational and economical model. (orig./HP)

Stabilization of cereal markets by flexible use of cereals for bio-ethanol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helming, J.F.M.; Pronk, A.; Woltjer, G.

2010-05-01

This report addresses the question if it is possible to stabilize the grain market and the grain price by means of variation in the deployment of grain for producing bio-ethanol in the Eu-27. The time horizon of this study is 2020, taking into account the blending obligation for biofuels of minimal 10% in the Eu-27. A basic scenarios and several alternative scenarios are developed by means of an economic calculation model. In the alternative scenarios more or less grain is used for own production of bio-ethanol in the Eu-27. The variation depends on the volume of the grain production compared to the basic scenario. The effect of the additional own production of bio-ethanol on the grain price is subsequently addressed. [nl

[Preface for special issue on bio-based materials (2016)].

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Yunxuan

2016-06-25

Bio-based materials are new materials or chemicals with renewable biomass as raw materials such as grain, legume, straw, bamboo and wood powder. This class of materials includes bio-based polymer, biobased fiber, glycotechnology products, biobased rubber and plastics produced by biomass thermoplastic processing and basic biobased chemicals, for instance, bio-alcohols, organic acids, alkanes, and alkenes, obtained by bio-synthesis, bio-processing and bio-refinery. Owing to its environmental friendly and resource conservation, bio-based materials are becoming a new dominant industry taking the lead in the world scientific and technological innovation and economic development. An overview of bio-based materials development is reported in this special issue, and the industrial status and research progress of the following aspects, including biobased fiber, polyhydroxyalkanoates, biodegradable mulching film, bio-based polyamide, protein based biomedical materials, bio-based polyurethane, and modification and processing of poly(lactic acid), are introduced.

Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caurla, Sylvain; Delacote, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Barkaoui, Ahmed

2013-01-01

Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics; (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced; (3) trade balance; (4) budgetary costs; and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. - Highlights: • We compare the bio-economic impacts of policies to boost fuelwood consumption in France. • We simulate a producer subsidy, a consumer subsidy and fixed public demand contracts. • We explore their impacts until 2020 with a dynamic model of the forest sector. • Producer subsidy reduces the trade balance deficit and decreases forest stock. • Consumer subsidy increases consumer welfare and public contracts reduce budgetary costs

A welfare study into capture fisheries in cirata reservoir: a bio-economic model

Science.gov (United States)

Anna, Z.; Hindayani, P.

2018-04-01

Capture fishery in inland such as reservoirs can be a source of food security and even the economy and public welfare of the surrounding community. This research was conducted on Cirata reservoir fishery in West Java, to see how far reservoir capture fishery can contribute economically in the form of resource rents. The method used is the bioeconomic model Copes, which can analyze the demand and supply functions to calculate the optimization of stakeholders’ welfare in various management regimes. The results showed that the management of capture fishery using Maximum Economic Yield regime (MEY) gave the most efficient result, where fewer inputs would produce maximum profit. In the MEY management, the producer surplus obtained is IDR 2,610.203.099, - per quarter and IDR 273.885.400,- of consumer surplus per quarter. Furthermore, researches showed that sustainable management regime policy MEY result in the government rent/surplus ofIDR 217.891,345, - per quarter with the average price of fish per kg being IDR 13.929. In open access fishery, it was shown that the producer surplus becomesIDR 0. Thus the implementation of the MEY-based instrument policy becomes a necessity for Cirata reservoir capture fishery.

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

Practical Validation of Economic Efficiency Modelling Method for Multi-Boiler Heating System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejs Jurenoks

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In up-to-date conditions information technology is frequently associated with the modelling process, using computer technology as well as information networks. Statistical modelling is one of the most widespread methods of research of economic systems. The selection of methods of modelling of the economic systems depends on a great number of conditions of the researched system. Modelling is frequently associated with the factor of uncertainty (or risk, who’s description goes outside the confines of the traditional statistical modelling, which, in its turn, complicates the modelling which, in its turn, complicates the modelling process. This article describes the modelling process of assessing the economic efficiency of a multi-boiler adaptive heating system in real-time systems which allows for dynamic change in the operation scenarios of system service installations while enhancing the economic efficiency of the system in consideration.

Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its stru....... Further fundamental extensions and advances to more sophisticated theory models, such as those related to dynamics and expectations (in the structural relations) are left for future papers......This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its......, it is demonstrated how other controversial hypotheses such as Rational Expectations can be formulated directly as restrictions on the CVAR-parameters. A simple example of a "Neoclassical synthetic" AS-AD model is also formulated. Finally, the partial- general equilibrium distinction is related to the CVAR as well...

Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wadim Strielkowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

Catalytic Hydrodeoxygenation of Bio-oil Model Compounds over Pt/HY Catalyst

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Heejin; Kim, Hannah; Yu, Mi Jin; Ko, Chang Hyun; Jeon, Jong-Ki; Jae, Jungho; Park, Sung Hoon; Jung, Sang-Chul; Park, Young-Kwon

2016-06-01

The hydrodeoxygenation of a model compound of lignin-derived bio-oil, guaiacol, which can be obtained from the pyrolysis of biomass to bio-oil, has attracted considerable research attention because of its huge potential as a substitute for conventional fuels. In this study, platinum-loaded HY zeolites (Pt/HY) with different Si/Al molar ratios were used as catalysts for the hydrodeoxygenation of guaiacol, anisole, veratrole, and phenol to a range of hydrocarbons, such as cyclohexane. The cyclohexane (major product) yield increased with increasing number of acid sites. To produce bio-oil with the maximum level of cyclohexane and alkylated cyclohexanes, which would be suitable as a substitute for conventional transportation fuels, the Si/Al molar ratio should be optimized to balance the Pt particle-induced hydrogenation with acid site-induced methyl group transfer. The fuel properties of real bio-oil derived from the fast pyrolysis of cork oak was improved using the Pt/HY catalyst.

REMOTE SYNTHESIS AND CONTROL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OF SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Masloboev

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The general line of research is concerned with development of information technologies and computer simulation tools for management information and analytical support of complex semistructured systems. Regional socio-economic systems are consideredas a representative of this system type. Investigation is carried out within the bounds of development strategy implementation of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and national safety until 2020 in the Murmansk region, specifically under engineering of high end information infrastructure for innovation and security control problem-solving of regional development. Research methodology consists of system dynamics modeling method, distributed information system engineering technologies, pattern-based modeling and design techniques. The work deals with development of toolkit for decision-making information support problem-solving in the field of innovation security management of regional economics. For that purpose a system-dynamic models suite of innovation process standard components and information technology for remote formation and control of innovation business simulation models under research have been developed. Designed toolkit provides innovation security index dynamics forecasting and innovation business effectiveness of regional economics. Information technology is implemented within the bounds of thin client architecture and is intended for simulation models design process automation of complex systems. Technology implementation software tools provide pattern-based system-dynamic models distributed formation and simulation control of innovation processes. The technology provides availability and reusability index enhancement of information support facilities in application to innovation process simulation at the expense of distributed access to innovation business simulation modeling tools and model synthesis by the reusable components, simulating standard elements of innovation

Deployment of a bio-economic 'hub' in rural Thailand by means of a Centralized biogas plant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lybæk, Rikke

2017-01-01

of nitrogen, low milk yield and inappropriate cattle diets etc., can be improved in the cattle farms, by better housekeeping, as well as supply of manure to the local dairy. Here, fossil fuels use could be substituted by renewable energy from biogas, and the energy used at various temperature levels...... by cascading. The paper further reveals that large amount of appropriate and available feedstock for the suggested biogas plants are assessable within the community, and currently pose an environmental problem, or re-used inefficiently. The centralized biogas plant will thus provide a development ‘hub’ for bio-economic...

From marine bio-corrosion to new bio-processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergel, A.; Dasilva, S.; Basseguy, R.; Feron, D.; Mollica, A.

2004-01-01

Full text of publication follows: From the middle of the last century it has been observed that the development of marine bio-films on the surface of stainless steels and different metallic materials induces the ennoblement of their free corrosion potential. A main step in deciphering the mechanisms of aerobic marine bio-corrosion has been achieved around 1976 with the demonstration that the potential ennoblement was due to the modification of the cathodic process. Since this date, the catalysis of oxygen reduction by marine bio-films has been the topic of numerous controversies, but it is now commonly agreed as a basic phenomena in aerobic corrosion. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the fine mechanisms of the bio-film-catalysed reduction of oxygen: intermediate formation of hydrogen peroxide, modification of the oxide layer on the stainless steel surface, involvement of manganese species and manganese oxidising bacteria, catalysis by proteins produced by the micro-organisms... Recent results may confirm the possible involvement of hemic enzymes or proteins. Whatever the mechanisms, very promising results have been obtained with the possible application of bio-film-catalysed oxygen reduction to conceive innovative biofuel cells with stainless steel electrodes. Actually, the catalysis of oxygen reduction is a key step that still drastically hinders the development of economically efficient hydrogen/oxygen fuel cells. The current technology requires high amounts of platinum or platinum-based materials to catalyze oxygen reduction on the cathode of these cells. The prohibitive cost of platinum is a main obstacle to the commercialization of low-cost fuel cells. Unpublished results recently showed that adapting the enzyme-catalysed reaction that was assumed for bio-corrosion on the cathode of hydrogen/oxygen fuel cells may lead to a significant decrease in the charge of platinum. Moreover, it was demonstrated on a laboratory-scale fuel cell pilot that

Opportunities for biomass-derived 'bio-oil' in European heat and power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brammer, J.G.; Lauer, M.; Bridgwater, A.V.

2006-01-01

Bio-oil (biomass fast pyrolysis) systems for heat, power or CHP production are nearing demonstration status. Their commercial attractiveness will depend on many factors, and will vary with the application, the scale, and importantly the location and its associated economic and logistical factors. The objective of this work, carried out as part of an EC-ALTENER project, was to evaluate the opportunities for bio-oil in the heat and power markets of Europe. Bio-oil applications were compared with conventional (fossil) alternatives for the same heat and power duty. The evaluation was carried out by a quantitative assessment of the economic competitiveness of standard applications in 14 European countries. Location-specific data were collected, and combined with technology-specific data obtained from earlier work. A competitiveness factor (c F ) was derived which represents the total annual cost of a conventional alternative relative to a bio-oil application. The results showed a wide variation across Europe. A total of six countries had at least one bio-oil application which was economically competitive. Heat-only applications were found to be the most economically competitive, followed by CHP applications, with electricity-only applications only very rarely competitive. For a given technology, the larger the scale, the better the competitiveness

Opportunities for biomass-derived 'bio-oil' in European heat and power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brammer, J.G.; Bridgwater, A.V.

2006-01-01

Bio-oil (biomass fast pyrolysis) systems for heat, power or CHP production are nearing demonstration status. Their commercial attractiveness will depend on many factors, and will vary with the application, the scale, and importantly the location and its associated economic and logistical factors. The objective of this work, carried out as part of an EC-ALTENER project, was to evaluate the opportunities for bio-oil in the heat and power markets of Europe. Bio-oil applications were compared with conventional (fossil) alternatives for the same heat and power duty. The evaluation was carried out by a quantitative assessment of the economic competitiveness of standard applications in 14 European countries. Location-specific data were collected, and combined with technology-specific data obtained from earlier work. A competitiveness factor (c F ) was derived which represents the total annual cost of a conventional alternative relative to a bio-oil application. The results showed a wide variation across Europe. A total of six countries had at least one bio-oil application which was economically competitive. Heat-only applications were found to be the most economically competitive, followed by CHP applications, with electricity-only applications only very rarely competitive. For a given technology, the larger the scale, the better the competitiveness. (author)

The Dynamic Effects of Entrepreneurship on Regional Economic Growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Matejovsky, Lukas; Mohapatra, Sandeep; Steiner, Bodo

2014-01-01

This study explores the temporal pattern of income disparity for Canadian provinces in two estimation steps. First, an econometric growth regression model is applied to identify the impact of entrepreneurship on regional economic growth. The estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship......, measured in terms of the selfemployment rate, plays a pivotal role in determining regional development in Canada. Second, a dynamic vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to predict the long-run regional growth effects that result from policy shocks affecting entrepreneurship. Compared to other...... growth drivers, entrepreneurship is found to have more pronounced and long-term stimulative effects on regional development for the period of 1987 to 2007...

Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

OpenAIRE

Clifford R. Wymer

2009-01-01

The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saiki, Y., E-mail: saiki@math.sci.hokudai.ac.jp [Department of Mathematics, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0810 (Japan); Chian, A.C.L. [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER), P.O. Box 515, Sao Jose dos Campos-SP 12227-010 (Brazil); California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Yoshida, H. [College of Economics, Nihon University, Tokyo 101-8360 (Japan)

2011-06-15

Highlights: > Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. > After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. > The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. > It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saiki, Y.; Chian, A.C.L.; Yoshida, H.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. → After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. → The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. → It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

Autothermal reforming of palm empty fruit bunch bio-oil: thermodynamic modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lifita N. Tande

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This work focuses on thermodynamic analysis of the autothermal reforming of palm empty fruit bunch (PEFB bio-oil for the production of hydrogen and syngas. PEFB bio-oil composition was simulated using bio-oil surrogates generated from a mixture of acetic acid, phenol, levoglucosan, palmitic acid and furfural. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the hydrogen and syngas yields were not sensitive to actual bio-oil composition, but were determined by a good match of molar elemental composition between real bio-oil and surrogate mixture. The maximum hydrogen yield obtained under constant reaction enthalpy and pressure was about 12 wt% at S/C = 1 and increased to about 18 wt% at S/C = 4; both yields occurring at equivalence ratio Φ of 0.31. The possibility of generating syngas with varying H2 and CO content using autothermal reforming was analysed and application of this process to fuel cells and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is discussed. Using a novel simple modelling methodology, reaction mechanisms were proposed which were able to account for equilibrium product distribution. It was evident that different combinations of reactions could be used to obtain the same equilibrium product concentrations. One proposed reaction mechanism, referred to as the ‘partial oxidation based mechanism’ involved the partial oxidation reaction of the bio-oil to produce hydrogen, with the extent of steam reforming and water gas shift reactions varying depending on the amount of oxygen used. Another proposed mechanism, referred to as the ‘complete oxidation based mechanism’ was represented by thermal decomposition of about 30% of bio-oil and hydrogen production obtained by decomposition, steam reforming, water gas shift and carbon gasification reactions. The importance of these mechanisms in assisting in the eventual choice of catalyst to be used in a real ATR of PEFB bio-oil process was discussed.

Bio-fuel production potential in Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laurentiu, F.; Silvian, F.; Dumitru, F.

2006-01-01

The paper is based on the ESTO Study: Techno- Economic Feasibility of Large-Scale Production of Bio-Fuels in EU-Candidate Countries. Bio-fuel production has not been taken into account significantly until now in Romania, being limited to small- scale productions of ethanol, used mostly for various industrial purposes. However the climatic conditions and the quality of the soil are very suitable in the country for development of the main crops (wheat, sugar-beet, sunflower and rape-seed) used in bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production. The paper intended to consider a pertinent discussion of the present situation in Romania's agriculture stressing on the following essential items in the estimation of bio-fuels production potential: availability of feed-stock for bio-fuel production; actual productions of bio-fuels; fuel consumption; cost assessment; SWOT approach; expected trends. Our analysis was based on specific agricultural data for the period 1996-2000. An important ethanol potential (due to wheat, sugar-beet and maize cultures), as well as bio-diesel one (due to sun-flower and rape-seed) were predicted for the period 2005-2010 which could be exploited with the support of an important financial and technological effort, mainly from EU countries

The way to bio heat. A manual on production of heat from bio fuel; Veien til biovarme. Manual for produksjon av ferdigvarme fra biobrensel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breen, Tor; Liodden, Ole Joergen; Farsund Oeystein; Martinsen, Arnold Kyrre

2008-09-26

The manual is a tool in the process of planning and establishing a bio heat company. It focuses on both technical, administrative, and economic aspects. Part 1 of the manual briefly reviews the production of bio fuel and bio heat, part 2 considers the organizational aspects of the project, and part 3 is a tool box containing laws and regulations, templates for contracts/agreements etc

Dynamic behaviour of the silica-water-bio electrical double layer in the presence of a divalent electrolyte.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, B M; Maekawa, Y; Shibuta, Y; Sakata, T; Skylaris, C-K; Green, N G

2017-01-25

Electronic devices are becoming increasingly used in chemical- and bio-sensing applications and therefore understanding the silica-electrolyte interface at the atomic scale is becoming increasingly important. For example, field-effect biosensors (BioFETs) operate by measuring perturbations in the electric field produced by the electrical double layer due to biomolecules binding on the surface. In this paper, explicit-solvent atomistic calculations of this electric field are presented and the structure and dynamics of the interface are investigated in different ionic strengths using molecular dynamics simulations. Novel results from simulation of the addition of DNA molecules and divalent ions are also presented, the latter of particular importance in both physiological solutions and biosensing experiments. The simulations demonstrated evidence of charge inversion, which is known to occur experimentally for divalent electrolyte systems. A strong interaction between ions and DNA phosphate groups was demonstrated in mixed electrolyte solutions, which are relevant to experimental observations of device sensitivity in the literature. The bound DNA resulted in local changes to the electric field at the surface; however, the spatial- and temporal-mean electric field showed no significant change. This result is explained by strong screening resulting from a combination of strongly polarised water and a compact layer of counterions around the DNA and silica surface. This work suggests that the saturation of the Stern layer is an important factor in determining BioFET response to increased salt concentration and provides novel insight into the interplay between ions and the EDL.

Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahangir Alam, Mohammad; Ara Begum, Ismat; Buysse, Jeroen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2012-01-01

The paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Bangladesh. First, we have tested cointegration relationships using the Johansen bi-variate cointegration model. This is complemented with an analysis of an auto-regressive distributed lag model to examine the results' robustness. Then, the Granger short-run, the long-run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long-run while a bi-directional long-run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short-run. The strong causality results indicate bi-directional causality for both the cases. A uni-directional causality runs from energy consumption to CO 2 emission for the short-run but feedback causality exists in the long-run. CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run. An important policy implication is that energy (electricity as well) can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in Bangladesh. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand. - Highlights: ► Dynamic causality among energy and electricity consumption, CO 2 and economic growth. ► Uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth. ► Bi-directional causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth. ► Feedback causality exists between CO 2 emission to energy consumption. ► CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run.

Economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal cycles in a spatial growth model with capital transport cost

Science.gov (United States)

Juchem Neto, J. P.; Claeyssen, J. C. R.; Pôrto Júnior, S. S.

2018-03-01

In this paper we introduce capital transport cost in a unidimensional spatial Solow-Swan model of economic growth with capital-induced labor migration, considered in an unbounded domain. Proceeding with a stability analysis, we show that there is a critical value for the capital transport cost where the dynamic behavior of the economy changes, provided that the intensity of capital-induced labor migration is strong enough. On the one hand, if the capital transport cost is higher than this critical value, the spatially homogeneous equilibrium of coexistence of the model is stable, and the economy converges to this spatially homogeneous state in the long run; on the other hand, if transport cost is lower than this critical value, the equilibrium is unstable, and the economy may develop different spatio-temporal dynamics, including the formation of stable economic agglomerations and spatio-temporal economic cycles, depending on the other parameters in the model. Finally, numerical simulations support the results of the stability analysis, and illustrate the spatio-temporal dynamics generated by the model, suggesting that the economy as a whole benefits from the formation of economic agglomerations and cycles, with a higher capital transport cost reducing this gain.

Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

CERN Document Server

Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

2017-01-01

This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment in Economic Growth from the Perspective of Nonlinear Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ch. K. Volos

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In today’s globalized economy one of the most crucial factors for the economic growth of a country, especially of a developing country, is the foreign direct investment, not only because of the transfer of capital but also of technology. In this work, the effect of foreign direct investments in a county’s economic growth by using tools of nonlinear dynamics is studied. As a model of the economic growth of a country, a well-known nonlinear discrete-time dynamical system, the Logistic map, is used. The system under study consists of two countries with a strong economic relationship. The source country of foreign direct investments is an industrialized, economically powerful and technologically advanced country that makes significant investments in the host country, which is a developing country and strong dependent from the source country. Simulation results of system’s behavior and especially the bifurcation diagrams reveal the strong connection between the countries of the proposed system and the effect of foreign direct investments in the economic growth of the host country.

Rethinking Value in the Bio-economy

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Current debates in science and technology studies emphasize that the bio-economy—or, the articulation of capitalism and biotechnology—is built on notions of commodity production, commodification, and materiality, emphasizing that it is possible to derive value from body parts, molecular and cellular tissues, biological processes, and so on. What is missing from these perspectives, however, is consideration of the political-economic actors, knowledges, and practices involved in the creation and management of value. As part of a rethinking of value in the bio-economy, this article analyzes three key political-economic processes: financialization, capitalization, and assetization. In doing so, it argues that value is managed as part of a series of valuation practices, it is not inherent in biological materialities. PMID:28458406

Application of System Dynamics to Evaluate the Social and Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiep Nguyen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

Electrifying white biotechnology: engineering and economic potential of electricity-driven bio-production.

Science.gov (United States)

Harnisch, Falk; Rosa, Luis F M; Kracke, Frauke; Virdis, Bernardino; Krömer, Jens O

2015-03-01

The production of fuels and chemicals by electricity-driven bio-production (i.e., using electric energy to drive biosynthesis) holds great promises. However, this electrification of white biotechnology is particularly challenging to achieve because of the different optimal operating conditions of electrochemical and biochemical reactions. In this article, we address the technical parameters and obstacles to be taken into account when engineering microbial bioelectrochemical systems (BES) for bio-production. In addition, BES-based bio-production processes reported in the literature are compared against industrial needs showing that a still large gap has to be closed. Finally, the feasibility of BES bio-production is analysed based on bulk electricity prices. Using the example of lysine production from sucrose, we demonstrate that there is a realistic market potential as cost savings of 8.4 % (in EU) and 18.0 % (in US) could be anticipated, if the necessary yields can be obtained. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

DYNAMIC MODEL FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE TRACEABILITY OF MEXICAN BEEF MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucila Herrera Ayala

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In order to point out the importance of the implementation of a traceability system in economic terms in the beef meat production activity, for the 2011-2016 period, a dynamic model was created in order to estimate the real value of the cattle inventory and to make projections of the gains and losses obtained in the implementation or not of this system with two possible plausible scenarios that affect the exports and imports. The results indicate that if the exports were increased by 53%, just like it happened in Uruguay with the implementation of this system, gains would increase 8.21% in the yearly average. In the absence of this system and considering the 80% decrease of the exports in the United States, in the presence of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE losses would increase 9.97% in a yearly average. In both scenarios a change ± of 20% in the imports was considered. Due to the results obtained and in the face of foreseeable conduct of trade, the cost of opportunity of a traceability system results positive.

Bio fuels and family farming in Uruguay: A feasible alliance?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carambula, M.; Chiappe, M.; Fernandez, E.; Figueredo, S.

2011-01-01

The global energy crisis caused by high levels of fossil fuels consumption and the signs of oil depletion explain the search for alternative energy to traditional sources. Progress towards bio-fuels policy is positioned in a central place in Uruguay s political agenda. This context converges with a scenario of expansion of agricultural activity, marked by a dynamism based on the domestic economic environment changes, and major transformations in the productive base. In this context, in order to assess the social impacts resulting from the expansion of crops for energy purposes, this research was carried out. It explores the social impact of bio fuels production in Uruguay taking as a reference the situation of family farm production. It assumes that the demand of land for energy crop production puts pressure on other production systems. Related to this, it is possible to establish a continuum between a view that holds that family farms are marginal to bio fuel production, and an inclusive view which encourages the incorporation of family farmers into national production chains. In this scenario, the paper attempts to provide elements to answer the question about whether this new line of national production generates opportunities or threats to family farming

Dynamic livestock modelling for on-farm decision support

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jalvingh, A.W.

1993-01-01

The study described in this thesis focuses on the development and use of models that simulate herd dynamics in livestock. The models can be used to calculate the herd-specific technical and economic consequences of various management strategies. The thesis is composed of four parts. (1)

Economic values of pork production related traits in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. SERENIUS

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to estimate economic values for sow efficiency and meat production traits in the Finnish pork production system including the consideration for subsidies. Economic values were estimated by developing a bio-economic model that describes the Finnish production system. Genetic improvement estimates for meat production traits were also developed in order to evaluate how much genetic gain is reduced due to selection for meat quality. Results showed that the highest economic values, when expressed in genetic standard deviations, were obtained for total number of piglets born (€2.07 per piglet, feed conversion ratio (€2.07 per feed unit per kg, and lean meat percentage (€1.69 per %. Economic values for litter size, piglet mortality, sows length of productive life, and lean meat percentage increased when subsidies were not accounted for in the bio-economic model. Results show further that meat quality should have 15–20 percent weight in the Finnish production trait index in order to prevent its deterioration. When the selection weights are 15–20% for meat quality, the expected loss in genetic gain is approximately 3 percent for other production traits when compared to selection indices where meat quality traits are not included.;

Dynamics and role of sphingomonas/mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation of weathered PAH-contaminated soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastiaens, L.; Ryngaert, A.; Leys, N.; Van Houtven, D.; Gemoets, J.; Goethals, L.; Springael, D.

2005-01-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are major soil pollutants in many industrialized countries. During the last decades, a diversity of PAH-degrading micro-organisms has been isolated, suggesting possibilities for bio-remediation. However, biodegradation of PAHs in contaminated soils is not always successful. The low bio-availability of the PAHs is the major problem, especially in weathered soils. In these soils a tightly sorbed PAH-fraction is present which is in general hardly accessible for microorganisms. In order to bio-remedy PAHs also in weathered soils, stimulation of bacteria which have special strategies to access sorbed organics may be a solution. Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium strains may represent such bacteria as (I) they are often isolated as PAH degraders, (II) they are ubiquitously present in PAH-contaminated soils, and (III) they display features which might promote bioavailability. Lab- and pilot-scale experiments were set up in order (A) to study the dynamics of indigenous Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation, and (B) to evaluate their role in the biodegradation of the less bio-available PAH-fraction during treatment of an historic PAH polluted soil. The soil was treated under natural soil moisture conditions and slurry conditions. The experimental set-ups ranged from 2 g lab-scale test to pilot experiments in 1 ton bio-piles and dry solid reactors (50 kg 70% dry matter soil). Different additives were evaluated for stimulation of the Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium population as a strategy to improve bio-remediation of PAHs. The evolution of this microbial population was followed using culture-independent general and genus-specific PCR-based detection methods targeting the 16S rRNA genes of the eu-bacterial community, Mycobacterium or the Sphingomonas populations, respectively. During the different bio-remediation experiments that were conducted, the Mycobacterium population remained very stable, only minor

Dynamics and role of sphingomonas/mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation of weathered PAH-contaminated soils

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bastiaens, L.; Ryngaert, A.; Leys, N.; Van Houtven, D.; Gemoets, J. [Flemish Institute for Technological Research-Vito, Mol (Belgium); Goethals, L. [ENVISAN, Aalst, (Belgium); Springael, D. [Catholic University of Leuven-KUL, Leuven (Belgium)

2005-07-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are major soil pollutants in many industrialized countries. During the last decades, a diversity of PAH-degrading micro-organisms has been isolated, suggesting possibilities for bio-remediation. However, biodegradation of PAHs in contaminated soils is not always successful. The low bio-availability of the PAHs is the major problem, especially in weathered soils. In these soils a tightly sorbed PAH-fraction is present which is in general hardly accessible for microorganisms. In order to bio-remedy PAHs also in weathered soils, stimulation of bacteria which have special strategies to access sorbed organics may be a solution. Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium strains may represent such bacteria as (I) they are often isolated as PAH degraders, (II) they are ubiquitously present in PAH-contaminated soils, and (III) they display features which might promote bioavailability. Lab- and pilot-scale experiments were set up in order (A) to study the dynamics of indigenous Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation, and (B) to evaluate their role in the biodegradation of the less bio-available PAH-fraction during treatment of an historic PAH polluted soil. The soil was treated under natural soil moisture conditions and slurry conditions. The experimental set-ups ranged from 2 g lab-scale test to pilot experiments in 1 ton bio-piles and dry solid reactors (50 kg 70% dry matter soil). Different additives were evaluated for stimulation of the Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium population as a strategy to improve bio-remediation of PAHs. The evolution of this microbial population was followed using culture-independent general and genus-specific PCR-based detection methods targeting the 16S rRNA genes of the eu-bacterial community, Mycobacterium or the Sphingomonas populations, respectively. During the different bio-remediation experiments that were conducted, the Mycobacterium population remained very stable, only minor

Paths to Change: Bio-Economic Factors, Geographical Gradients and the Land-Use Structure of Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Masini, Emanuela; Barbati, Anna; Bencardino, Massimiliano; Carlucci, Margherita; Corona, Piermaria; Salvati, Luca

2018-01-01

This study introduces a bio-economic approach to evaluate the influence of local socioeconomic contexts on complex processes of landscape transformation (urbanization, withdrawal of farming with woodland creation and loss in crop mosaics) in a sustainable development perspective. Land-use and socioeconomic indicators (including shares of agriculture, industry and services in total product, per-worker value added, productivity by economic sector, distance from central cities, latitude and elevation) at the local district scale in Italy have been considered together in an exploratory approach based on multivariate statistics. The combined use of land-use and socioeconomic indicators was preferred to more traditional approaches based on single-variable analysis and allows identifying latent factors of landscape transformation at the local scale. Our approach sheds light in the intimate relationship between regional economic structures and land-use change in districts with varying socio-environmental attributes across Italy. Urban-rural divides, coastal-inland dichotomy and the elevation gradient were relevant factors shaping urbanization-driven landscape transformations at the country scale. Indicators of economic structure (and especially industrial production and per-worker productivity of industry and services) were also documented to influence greatly entity and direction of change in the use of land. Discontinuous and dispersed urbanization has been demonstrated to be spatially-decoupled from consolidated (continuous and compact) urbanization, expanding into undeveloped rural areas progressively far away from central cities and being spatially associated with forest land.

Preclinical MRI and NMR Bio-markers of Alzheimer's Disease: Concepts and Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dhenain, M. [CEA, DSV, I2BM, SHFJ, F-91401 Orsay (France); Dhenain, M. [CNRS, URA 2210, F-91401 Orsay (France); Dhenain, M. [CEA, DSV, I2BM, Neurospin, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette(France)

2008-07-01

Alzheimer's disease is an important social and economic issue for our societies. The development of therapeutics against this severe dementia requires assessing the effects of new drugs in animal models thanks to dedicated bio-markers. This review first overviews Alzheimer's disease and its models as well as the concept of bio-markers. It then focuses on MRI and NMR bio-markers of Alzheimer's disease in animals. Anatomical markers such as atrophy and angiography are useful to phenotype newly developed models of Alzheimer's disease, even if the alterations in these animals are not as severe as in humans. Amyloid plaques imaging is a promising marker of the pathology in animals, and is a rapidly evolving field of MRI. Functional methods such as perfusion and diffusion imaging or spectroscopy are able to detect alterations in transgenic mice mimicking Alzheimer and also to show similar alterations than in humans. They can thus be good translational markers of the disease. Manganese-Enhanced MRI shows a reduction of neuronal transportation in transgenic models of Alzheimer and it allows monitoring improvements induced by treatments of the disease. It is thus a promising bio-marker of the pathology in animals. (authors)

Optimization Scheduling Model for Wind-thermal Power System Considering the Dynamic penalty factor

Science.gov (United States)

PENG, Siyu; LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, Hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; LIU, Wanyu

2018-03-01

In this paper, a new dynamic economic dispatch model for power system is presented.Objective function of the proposed model presents a major novelty in the dynamic economic dispatch including wind farm: introduced the “Dynamic penalty factor”, This factor could be computed by using fuzzy logic considering both the variable nature of active wind power and power demand, and it could change the wind curtailment cost according to the different state of the power system. Case studies were carried out on the IEEE30 system. Results show that the proposed optimization model could mitigate the wind curtailment and the total cost effectively, demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Three-dimensional trajectory tracking for underactuated AUVs with bio-inspired velocity regulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiajia Zhou

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to address the motion parameter skip problem associated with three-dimensional trajectory tracking of an underactuated Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV using backstepping-based control, due to the unsmoothness of tracking trajectory. Through kinematics concepts, a three-dimensional dynamic velocity regulation controller is derived. This controller makes use of the surge and angular velocity errors with bio-inspired models and backstepping techniques. It overcomes the frequently occurring problem of parameter skip at inflection point existing in backstepping tracking control method and increases system robustness. Moreover, the proposed method can effectively avoid the singularity problem in backstepping control of virtual velocity error. The control system is proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded using Lyapunov stability theory. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the developed controller, which can realize accurate three-dimensional trajectory tracking for an underactuated AUV with constant external disturbances. Keywords: Dynamic velocity regulation, Bio-inspired model, Backstepping, Underactuated AUV, Three-dimensional trajectory tracking

Long-term sustainability of bio-components production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Souček Ivan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Biofuels play an increasingly important role in motor fuel market. The list of biofuels (bio-components in accordance with EU legislations contains a number of substances not widely used in the market. Traditionally these include: fatty acid methyl esters (FAME, in the Czech Republic methyl ether of rape seed oil and bioethanol (also ethyl terc. buthyl ether ETBE, based on bioethanol. The availability and possible utilizations of bio-component fuels in Czech Republic and Serbia are discussed. Additional attention is paid on the identification of the possibilities to improve effectiveness of rape seeds cultivation and utilization of by-products from FAME production (utilization of sew, rape-meal and glycerol which will allow fulfilment of the sustainability criteria for the first generation biofuels. The new approaches on renewable co-processing are commented. The concept of 3E (emissions, energy demand, and economics is introduced specifying three main attributes for effective production of FAME production in accordance with legal compliances. Bio-components price change is analyzed in comparison to the price of motor fuels, identifying possible (speculative crude price break-even point at the level of 149-176 USD/bbl at which point bio-fuels would become economically cost effective for the use by refiners.

Subsurface Bio-Immobilization of Plutonium: Experiment and Model Validation Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reed, Donald; Rittmann, Bruce

2006-01-01

The goal of this project is to conduct a concurrent experimental and modeling study centered on the interactions of Shewanella algae BrY with plutonium and uranium species and phases. The most important objective of this research is to investigate the long-term stability of bioprecipitated immobilized actinide phases under changing redox conditions in biologically active systems. The long-term stability of bio-immobilized actinides (e.g. by bio-reduction) is a key criteria that defines the utility and effectiveness of a remediation/containment strategy for subsurface actinide contaminants. Plutonium, which is the focus of this project, is the key contaminant of concern at several DOE sites

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

Science.gov (United States)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

Application study of Bio-FGD based on environmental safety during the coal combustion

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Pin

2018-05-01

Coal combustion produces a large amount of acidic gas, which is the main cause of acid rain and other natural disasters. Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) is a necessary requirement for clean coal combustion. Compared with the traditional chemical desulfurization technology, biological desulfurization has the advantages of low operating cost, without secondary pollution, low carbon emission and the additional economic benefits. The process and structure of BioDeSOx which as one of Bio-FGD technology is introduced. The major factors that influent BioDeSOx Bio- FGD system is the pH, oxidation reduction potential (-300 MV to -400MV), electrical conductivity, the adding amount of nutrient and temperature (30°C-40°C). Taking the Bio- FGD project of Yixing xielian thermal power plant as an example, the BioDeSOx technology was applied in this project. The environmental and economic benefits of the project were greater than the traditional desulfurization technology. With the continuous improvement of environmental safety standards, Bio- FGD technology will have broad application prospects.

The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE) user interface: a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

Sustainability-based decision making is a challenging process that requires balancing trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental components. System Dynamic (SD) models can be useful tools to inform sustainability-based decision making because they provide a holistic co...

BioFET-SIM

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hediger, M. R.; Martinez, K. L.; Nygård, J.

2013-01-01

Biosensors based on nanowire field effect transistor (FET) have received much attention in recent years as a way to achieve ultra-sensitive and label-free sensing of molecules of biological interest. The BioFET-SIM computer model permits the analysis and interpretation of experimental sensor...... signals through its web-based interface www.biofetsim.org. The model also allows for predictions of the effects of changes in the experimental setup on the sensor signal. After an introduction to nanowire-based FET biosensors, this chapter reviews the theoretical basis of BioFET-SIM models describing both...... single and multiple charges on the analyte. Afterwards the usage of the interface and its relative command line version is briefly shown. Finally, possible applications of the BioFET-SIM model are presented. Among the possible uses of the interface, the effects on the predicted signal of pH, buffer ionic...

Design and Dynamics Analysis of a Bio-Inspired Intermittent Hopping Robot for Planetary Surface Exploration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Bai

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A small, bio-inspired and minimally actuated intermittent hopping robot for planetary surface exploration is proposed in this paper. The robot uses a combined-geared six-bar linkage/spring mechanism, which has a possible rich trajectory and metamorphic characteristics and, due to this, the robot is able to recharge, lock/release and jump by using just a micro-power motor as the actuator. Since the robotic system has a closed-chain structure and employs underactuated redundant motion, the constrained multi-body dynamics are derived with time-varying driving parameters and ground unilateral constraint both taken into consideration. In addition, the established dynamics equations, mixed of higher order differential and algebraic expressions, are solved by the immediate integration algorithm. A prototype is implemented and experiments are carried out. The results show that the robot, using a micro-power motor as the actuator and solar cells as the power supply, can achieve a biomimetic multi-body hopping stance and a nonlinearly increasing driving force. Typically, the robot can jump a horizontal distance of about 1 m and a vertical height of about 0.3 m, with its trunk and foot moving stably during takeoff. In addition, the computational and experimental results are consistent as regards the hopping performance of the robot, which suggests that the proposed dynamics model and its solution have general applicability to motion prediction and the performance analysis of intermittent hopping robots.

Combinatorial Nano-Bio Interfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Pingqiang; Zhang, Xiaoqian; Wang, Ming; Wu, Yun-Long; Chen, Xiaodong

2018-06-08

Nano-bio interfaces are emerging from the convergence of engineered nanomaterials and biological entities. Despite rapid growth, clinical translation of biomedical nanomaterials is heavily compromised by the lack of comprehensive understanding of biophysicochemical interactions at nano-bio interfaces. In the past decade, a few investigations have adopted a combinatorial approach toward decoding nano-bio interfaces. Combinatorial nano-bio interfaces comprise the design of nanocombinatorial libraries and high-throughput bioevaluation. In this Perspective, we address challenges in combinatorial nano-bio interfaces and call for multiparametric nanocombinatorics (composition, morphology, mechanics, surface chemistry), multiscale bioevaluation (biomolecules, organelles, cells, tissues/organs), and the recruitment of computational modeling and artificial intelligence. Leveraging combinatorial nano-bio interfaces will shed light on precision nanomedicine and its potential applications.

DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF THE “SHOCKS” INFLUENCE ON THE ECONOMIC SAFETY OF MACROREGIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lidiya Guryanova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Modern forms of integration processes, along with a number of opportunities to obtain synergistic effects by regions, impose additional threats and risks. In particular, such risks include deterioration of trading conditions in partner countries, depreciation of assets, unidirectional reaction to “shocks”. The need to monitor and prevent such specific risks and threats requires an appropriate transformation of economic security systems (RESS of the regions (macroregions. The development of a model basis is one of the ways to increase the RESS functioning efficiency. The basis would allow to analyze dynamic effects of the “shocks” influence; to identify the system components, which at certain stages contribute to an increase in the overall level of economic safety, or, on the contrary, create additional threats. The authors propose a methodical approach to the formation of such a model basis, which is based on the application of principal components method, canonical correlations method, the method of development level, vector autoregressive technologies, vector models of error correction. The proposed methodical approach is implemented on the data of macroregions’ financial security indicators, as one of the dominant components of economic security. The obtained results allowed to reveal the interrelations between the structural components of safety, taking into account long-term relationships, short-term effects and the speed of return to the equilibrium trajectory after the impact of external “shocks” (threats. The developed models of dynamically stable systems have shown that in modern conditions there is a high probability of short-term local crises formation, since the reaction at the time of the “shock” impact often has the character of “explosive” oscillations. The study of dynamically unstable systems models has made it possible to determine the points of bifurcation, the dominant threats, the elimination of which

Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

2008-01-01

In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

Bio-Inspired Autonomous Communications Systems with Anomaly Detection Monitoring, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to develop and demonstrate BioComm, a bio-inspired autonomous communications system (ACS) aimed at dynamically reconfiguring and redeploying autonomous...

BioWaste-to-Liquid. An ecologic-economic consideration of pyrolysis oil based on biogenic residual materials and wastes; BioWaste-to-Liquid. Oekologisch-oekonomische Betrachtung von Pyrolyseoel auf Basis biogener Rest- und Abfallstoffe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liemen, Franziska; Zech, Konstantin; Kroeger, Michael [DBFZ Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum gemeinnuetzige GmbH, Leipzig (Germany)

2012-07-01

The joint research project BioWaste-to-Liquid, which is carried out by Deutsches BiomasseForschungsZentrum (DBFZ) and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), focuses on the provision of alternative fuels by means of fast pyrolysis. Alongside the various tests and technical analyses, an ecologic and economic assessment was carried out, that examines the performance of different raw materials in terms of GHG-emissions and production costs. The herein examined raw materials were Rape straw, Sunflower straw, residues of corn harvesting, hay, waste wood, bark and driftwood from river Rhine. The results show a good performance of waste wood and draft wood both in ecologic and economic terms, whilst especially Sunflower straw can be considered rather unsuitable since it is particularly affected by the negative effects of the compensatory fertilization. The other raw materials perform varyingly in the ecologic and economic assessments. (orig.)

The Model of Optimum Economic Growth with the Induced Scientific-Technological Progress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilenko Viktor A.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available On the basis of the economic dynamics of the Harrod – Domar model, a model of optimum economic growth in line with the induced scientific-technological progress (STP has been built. In order to reflect the induced scientific-technological progress, with this model is proposed to further allocate the income element that is specially used for the investment of innovation activity, implementation of which reduces the capital intensity in development of the discussed economy. For the simplest way of presenting an economic mechanism for the investment of induced STP, analytical solutions of an appropriate task in optimum management have been obtained. Studying these decisions allowed to reveal the characteristics of the impact of parameters of scientific-technological progress and the analyzed economic system on choosing the best trajectory for its evolution. Possible directions for further developing the results presented can be considered the tasks in building and analyzing models of optimum economic growth that implement different investment options for the induced STP, as well as the models in which this investment mechanism is not exogenouslyed, but rather the result of the corresponding economic-mathematical research.

The economic-engineering of smart-meter-enabled dynamic water pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien

2016-04-01

The introduction of smart metering is set to revolutionize in many ways how water utilities conduct their business and interact with customers. Among those is the possibility of changing water prices during the day or seasonally. This work presents the engineering and economic implications of dynamic pricing implemented at two distinct timescales, 1) a seasonal scarcity tariff aimed at reducing consumption during drier period or droughts, and 2) time-of-day tariffs aimed at reducing peak-hour water use. Sophisticated dynamic pricing schemes are hard to understand for many users, and this reduces their social acceptability because it gives the impression that they help the water utility charge more for water. Therefore, we focus on simple pricing mechanisms, and estimating their short- and long-term benefits for communication with regulators and consumers. Seasonal scarcity tariffs are designed by adjusting prices such that the increased expenditure is commensurate with economic gains in other uses such as the environment and recreation. These tariffs could promote efficient use of limited supplies during relatively dry periods. In the long term, consistently reducing water consumption when it is scarce delays the need to invest in new sources of supply meant only for dry periods (e.g. desalination) which can bring down supply costs in the long-term. Reducing peak-hour use through time-of-day tariffs in the short run decreases peak-hour energy consumption and delays maintenance by reducing the likelihood of pipe burst. In the long run it delays capacity expansion of the distribution network. We develop and demonstrate a simple economic model of water supply to a generic city to demonstrate these concepts. This simple model is applied to London's water supply to better understand the scale of potential price changes and savings given London's environmental flow demands.

Do nonlinear dynamics in economics amount to a Kuhnian paradigm shift?

Science.gov (United States)

Dore, Mohammed H I; Rosser, J Barkley

2007-01-01

Much empirical analysis and econometric work recognizes that there are nonlinearities, regime shifts or structural breaks, asymmetric adjustment costs, irreversibilities and lagged dependencies. Hence, empirical work has already transcended neoclassical economics. Some progress has also been made in modeling endogenously generated cyclical growth and fluctuations. All this is inconsistent with neoclassical general equilibrium. Hence there is growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. It therefore follows that there is a Kuhnian crisis in economics and further research in nonlinear dynamics and complexity can only increase the Kuhnian anomalies. This crisis can only deepen. However, there is an ideological commitment to general equilibrium that justifies "free enterprise" with only minimal state intervention that may still sustain neoclassical economics despite the growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. Thus, orthodox textbook theory continues to ignore this fact and static neoclassical theory remains a dogma with no apparent reformulation to replace it.

Catalytic Pyrolysis of Tar Model Compound with Various Bio-Char Catalysts to Recycle Char from Biomass Pyrolysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinmiao Liu

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Tar and char can be regarded as unwanted byproducts during the gasification process. In this study, three types of catalyst, i.e., biomass char (bio-char, nickel supported on biomass (Ni+bio-char, and nickel supported on bio-char (bio-char+Ni, were studied to compare the catalytic effects of different preparation methods on tar model compound removal. The structural characteristics of the three catalysts were also investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD, scanning electron microscopy (SEM, and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET methods. The results revealed that Ni+bio-char catalyst showed much higher activity for the reformation of toluene (C7H8 as a tar model compound than the other two catalysts. Toluene could be completely converted to small gas molecules at a conversion rate of 99.92% at 800 °C, and the maximum yield of gas was 432 mL/(mL C7H8. In particular, the H2 and CH4 yields were 339 and 85 mL/(mL C7H8 at 850 °C, respectively. An N2 absorption-desorption experiment demonstrated that the specific surface area of Ni+bio-char was 32.87 times that of bio-char and 8.39 times that of bio-char+Ni. Moreover, metallic nickel (Ni0 particles could be generated in the carbon matrix of Ni+bio-char catalyst. SEM analysis confirmed that the Ni+bio-char catalyst had a more porous structure. Nickel supported on biomass might be a promising catalyst for tar reformation because of its excellent catalytic activities.

Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

2013-01-01

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retar...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....

Prospects for a bio-based succinate industry.

Science.gov (United States)

McKinlay, James B; Vieille, C; Zeikus, J Gregory

2007-09-01

Bio-based succinate is receiving increasing attention as a potential intermediary feedstock for replacing a large petrochemical-based bulk chemical market. The prospective economical and environmental benefits of a bio-based succinate industry have motivated research and development of succinate-producing organisms. Bio-based succinate is still faced with the challenge of becoming cost competitive against petrochemical-based alternatives. High succinate concentrations must be produced at high rates, with little or no by-products to most efficiently use substrates and to simplify purification procedures. Herein are described the current prospects for a bio-based succinate industry, with emphasis on specific bacteria that show the greatest promise for industrial succinate production. The succinate-producing characteristics and the metabolic pathway used by each bacterial species are described, and the advantages and disadvantages of each bacterial system are discussed.

Harvesting of microalgae by bio-flocculation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salim, S.; Bosma, R.; Vermuë, M.H.; Wijffels, R.H.

2011-01-01

The high-energy input for harvesting biomass makes current commercial microalgal biodiesel production economically unfeasible. A novel harvesting method is presented as a cost and energy efficient alternative: the bio-flocculation by using one flocculating microalga to concentrate the

Steam Reforming of Bio-oil Model Compounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trane, Rasmus; Jensen, Anker Degn; Dahl, Søren

The steam reforming of bio-oil is a sustainable and renewable route to synthesis gas and hydrogen, where one of the main hurdles is carbon formation on the catalyst.......The steam reforming of bio-oil is a sustainable and renewable route to synthesis gas and hydrogen, where one of the main hurdles is carbon formation on the catalyst....

Multi-Objective Dynamic Economic Dispatch of Microgrid Systems Including Vehicle-to-Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haitao Liu

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Based on the characteristics of electric vehicles (EVs, this paper establishes the load models of EVs under the autonomous charging mode and the coordinated charging and discharging mode. Integrating the EVs into a microgrid system which includes wind turbines (WTs, photovoltaic arrays (PVs, diesel engines (DEs, fuel cells (FCs and a storage battery (BS, this paper establishes multi-objective economic dispatch models of a microgrid, including the lowest operating cost, the least carbon dioxide emissions, and the lowest pollutant treatment cost. After converting the multi-objective functions to a single objective function by using the judgment matrix method, we analyze the dynamic economic dispatch of the microgrid system including vehicle-to-grid (V2G with an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm under different operation control strategies. With the example system, the proposed models and strategies are verified and analyzed. Simulation results show that the microgrid system with EVs under the coordinated charging and discharging mode has better operation economics than the autonomous charging mode. Meanwhile, the greater the load fluctuation is, the higher the operating cost of the microgrid system is.

Coupling environmental, social and economic models to understand land-use change dynamics in the Mekong Delta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexis eDrogoul

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The Vietnamese Mekong Delta has undergone in recent years a considerable transformation in agricultural land-use, fueled by a boom of the exportation, an increase of population, a focus on intensive crops, but also environmental factors like sea level rise or the progression of soil salinity. These transformations have been, however, largely misestimated by the ten-year agricultural plans designed at the provincial levels, on the predictions of which, though, most of the large-scale investments (irrigation infrastructures, protection against flooding or salinity intrusion, and so on are normally planned. This situation raises the question of how to explain the divergence between the predictions used as a basis for these plans and the actual situation. Answering it could, as a matter of fact, offer some insights on the dynamics at play and hopefully allow designing them more accurately.The dynamics of land-use change at a scale of a region results from the interactions between heterogeneous actors and factors at different scales, among them institutional policies, individual farming choices, land-cover and environmental changes, economic conditions, social dynamics, just to name a few. Understanding its evolution, for example, in this case, to better support agricultural planning, therefore requires the use of models that can represent the individual contributions of each actor or factor, and of course their interactions.We address this question through the design of an integrated hybrid model of land-use change in a specific and carefully chosen case study, which relies on the central hypothesis that the main force driving land-use change is actually the individual choices made by farmers at their local level. Farmers are the actors who decide (or not to switch from one culture to another and the shifts observed at more global levels (village, district, province, region are considered, in this model, as a consequence of the aggregation of these

A Gold Nanoparticle Bio-Optical Transponder to Dynamically Monitor Intracellular pH.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnevale, Kate J F; Riskowski, Ryan A; Strouse, Geoffrey F

2018-06-13

A pH-sensitive bio-optical transponder (pH-BOT) capable of simultaneously reporting the timing of intracellular DNA cargo release from a gold nanoparticle (AuNP) and the evolving intracellular pH (pH i) during endosomal maturation is demonstrated. The pH-BOT is designed with a triple-dye-labeled duplex DNA appended to a 6.6 nm AuNP, utilizing pH-responsive fluorescein paired with DyLight405 as a surface energy transfer (SET) coupled dye pair to ratiometrically report the pH at and after cargo release. A non-SET-coupled dye, DyLight 700, is used to provide dynamic tracking throughout the experiment. The pH-BOT beacon of the cargo uptake, release, and processing was visualized using live-cell confocal fluorescent microscopy in Chinese hamster ovary cells, and it was observed that while maturation of endosomes carrying pH-BOT is slowed significantly, the pH-BOT is distributed throughout the endolysosomal system while remaining at pH ∼6. This observed decoupling of endosomal maturation from acidification lends support to those models that propose that pH alone is not sufficient to explain endosomal maturation and may enable greater insight into our understanding of the fundamental processes of biology.

Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hein, L.G.

2005-01-01

Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.

Pathway computation in models derived from bio-science text sources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreasen, Troels; Bulskov, Henrik; Jensen, Per Anker

2017-01-01

This paper outlines a system, OntoScape, serving to accomplish complex inference tasks on knowledge bases and bio-models derived from life-science text corpora. The system applies so-called natural logic, a form of logic which is readable for humans. This logic affords ontological representations...

Estimating Biofuel Feedstock Water Footprints Using System Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, Daniel; Warner, Ethan; Stright, Dana; Macknick, Jordan; Peck, Corey

2016-07-01

Increased biofuel production has prompted concerns about the environmental tradeoffs of biofuels compared to petroleum-based fuels. Biofuel production in general, and feedstock production in particular, is under increased scrutiny. Water footprinting (measuring direct and indirect water use) has been proposed as one measure to evaluate water use in the context of concerns about depleting rural water supplies through activities such as irrigation for large-scale agriculture. Water footprinting literature has often been limited in one or more key aspects: complete assessment across multiple water stocks (e.g., vadose zone, surface, and ground water stocks), geographical resolution of data, consistent representation of many feedstocks, and flexibility to perform scenario analysis. We developed a model called BioSpatial H2O using a system dynamics modeling and database framework. BioSpatial H2O could be used to consistently evaluate the complete water footprints of multiple biomass feedstocks at high geospatial resolutions. BioSpatial H2O has the flexibility to perform simultaneous scenario analysis of current and potential future crops under alternative yield and climate conditions. In this proof-of-concept paper, we modeled corn grain (Zea mays L.) and soybeans (Glycine max) under current conditions as illustrative results. BioSpatial H2O links to a unique database that houses annual spatially explicit climate, soil, and plant physiological data. Parameters from the database are used as inputs to our system dynamics model for estimating annual crop water requirements using daily time steps. Based on our review of the literature, estimated green water footprints are comparable to other modeled results, suggesting that BioSpatial H2O is computationally sound for future scenario analysis. Our modeling framework builds on previous water use analyses to provide a platform for scenario-based assessment. BioSpatial H2O's system dynamics is a flexible and user

Quantum Information Biology: From Theory of Open Quantum Systems to Adaptive Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

This chapter reviews quantum(-like) information biology (QIB). Here biology is treated widely as even covering cognition and its derivatives: psychology and decision making, sociology, and behavioral economics and finances. QIB provides an integrative description of information processing by bio-systems at all scales of life: from proteins and cells to cognition, ecological and social systems. Mathematically QIB is based on the theory of adaptive quantum systems (which covers also open quantum systems). Ideologically QIB is based on the quantum-like (QL) paradigm: complex bio-systems process information in accordance with the laws of quantum information and probability. This paradigm is supported by plenty of statistical bio-data collected at all bio-scales. QIB re ects the two fundamental principles: a) adaptivity; and, b) openness (bio-systems are fundamentally open). In addition, quantum adaptive dynamics provides the most generally possible mathematical representation of these principles.

Bio fuels. A comparative analysis; Biokraftstoffe. Eine vergleichende Analyse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmitz, Norbert; Henke, Jan; Klepper, Gernot

2009-07-01

The market for bio fuels is subject to very high dynamics worldwide. Due to the extreme rise of the prices of raw materials as well as due to the retrogressive tax reductions for bio fuels in Germany one hardly invests in bio fuels. Substantial changes are experienced in the markets for fossil raw materials. The prices for agrarian raw material used in this contribution originate from the years 2006 and 2007. The effects of clearly higher oil prices on the bio fuel market are described. The investigation under consideration also deals with criteria of sustainability. The contribution of the individual bio fuels to the reduction of greenhouse gases is analyzed. The costs resulting from this are numerated. This enables a well-established comparison in which less representative bio fuels such as bio methane, BtL fuels and cellulose ethanol also are included.

Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management. Part 2: Model coupling and application

Science.gov (United States)

Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

2017-08-01

Many simulation models focus on simulating a single physical process and do not constitute balanced representations of the physical, social and economic components of a system. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating a physical (P) model (SAHYSMOD) with a group (stakeholder) built system dynamics model (GBSDM) through a component modeling approach based on widely applied tools such as MS Excel, Python and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The coupled model (P-GBSDM) was applied to test soil salinity management scenarios (proposed by stakeholders) for the Haveli region of the Rechna Doab Basin in Pakistan. Scenarios such as water banking, vertical drainage, canal lining, and irrigation water reallocation were simulated with the integrated model. Spatiotemporal maps and economic and environmental trade-off criteria were used to examine the effectiveness of the selected management scenarios. After 20 years of simulation, canal lining reduced soil salinity by 22% but caused an initial reduction of 18% in farm income, which requires an initial investment from the government. The government-sponsored Salinity Control and Reclamation Project (SCARP) is a short-term policy that resulted in a 37% increase in water availability with a 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on soil salinity in the long term, with a 21% increase in soil salinity due to secondary salinization. The new P-GBSDM was shown to be an effective platform for engaging stakeholders and simulating their proposed management policies while taking into account socioeconomic considerations. This was not possible using the physically based SAHYSMOD model alone.

Technological change of the energy innovation system: From oil-based to bio-based energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wonglimpiyarat, Jarunee

2010-01-01

This paper concerns the structural developments and the direction of technological change of the energy innovation system, based on the studies of Kuhn's model of scientific change and Schumpeter's model of technological change. The paper uses the case study of Thai government agencies for understanding the way governments can facilitate technological innovation. The analyses are based on a pre-foresight exercise to examine the potential of the bio-based energy and investigate a set of development policies necessary for the direction of energy system development. The results have shown that bio-based energy is seen as the next new wave for future businesses and one of the solutions to the problem of high oil prices to improve the world's economic security and sustainable development. (author)

A bio-optical model suitable for use in forward and inverse coupled atmosphere-ocean radiative transfer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Kexin; Li Wei; Eide, Hans; Stamnes, Knut

2007-01-01

A simple, yet complete bio-optical model for the inherent optical properties (IOPs) of oceanic waters is developed. This bio-optical model is specifically designed for use in comprehensive, multiple scattering radiative transfer models for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Such models can be used to construct next-generation algorithms for simultaneous retrieval of aerosol and marine parameters. The computed remote sensing reflectance R rs (λ) is validated against field measurements of R rs (λ) compiled in the SeaBASS data base together with simultaneous chlorophyll concentrations (C) ranging from 0.03 to 100mgm -3 . This connection between R rs and C is used to construct a chlorophyll concentration retrieval algorithm that yields reliable results for a large range of chlorophyll concentrations. The overall performance of a MODIS/VIIRS chlorophyll concentration retrieval algorithm is found to be less satisfactory

Opportunities for using bio-based fibers for value-added composites

Science.gov (United States)

Zhiyong Cai; Jerrold E. Winandy

2006-01-01

Efficient and economical utilization of various bio-based materials is an effective way to improve forest management, promote long-term sustainability, and restore native ecosystems. However, the dilemma is how to deal with lesser used, undervalued or no-value bio-resources such as small diameter trees, agricultural residues (wheat straw, rice straw, and corn stalk),...

Biocontrol (Formulation of Bacillus firmus (BioNem)) of Root-knot ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pathogens and viruses and 6 economically important insect and mite pests attacking ... biological control have been tried with different levels of successes in tomato .... At Dire Dawa, the soil application of BioNem at the rates 200 and 400 ... hatching of M. incognita and BioNem at 2.5 % and 3% concentrations caused 100 ...

Bio-diesel. Initiatives, potential and prospects in Thailand. A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siriwardhana, Manjula; Opathella, G.K.C.; Jha, M.K.

2009-01-01

Thailand experiences a great economic and industrial development and is the second largest energy consumer in South East Asia. Being a net oil importer, Thai government has declared a renewable energy development programme in order to secure sustainable development and energy security. Thailand spends more than 10% of GDP for energy imports and transport sector accounts for 36% of total final energy consumption of which 50% is diesel. Diesel marks a huge impact on Thai economy. Thai government's bio-diesel development strategy is to replace 10% of petro-diesel in transport sector by bio-diesel by 2012. The plan is to increase the use of bio-diesel from 365 million liters in 2007 to 3100 million liters by 2012. This paper reviews the current status and potential of bio-diesel in Thailand and investigates and discusses the qualities and weaknesses of the proposed road-map. The proposed road-map definitely gives immediate solution for soaring oil prices, but the long-term economic, environmental and social impacts need to be examined. (author)

Recent trends in global production and utilization of bio-ethanol fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balat, Mustafa; Balat, Havva

2009-01-01

Bio-fuels are important because they replace petroleum fuels. A number of environmental and economic benefits are claimed for bio-fuels. Bio-ethanol is by far the most widely used bio-fuel for transportation worldwide. Production of bio-ethanol from biomass is one way to reduce both consumption of crude oil and environmental pollution. Using bio-ethanol blended gasoline fuel for automobiles can significantly reduce petroleum use and exhaust greenhouse gas emission. Bio-ethanol can be produced from different kinds of raw materials. These raw materials are classified into three categories of agricultural raw materials: simple sugars, starch and lignocellulose. Bio-ethanol from sugar cane, produced under the proper conditions, is essentially a clean fuel and has several clear advantages over petroleum-derived gasoline in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality in metropolitan areas. Conversion technologies for producing bio-ethanol from cellulosic biomass resources such as forest materials, agricultural residues and urban wastes are under development and have not yet been demonstrated commercially.

Liquid Bio fuels: Vegetable Oils and Bi oethanol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballesteros, M.; Ballesteros, I.; Oliva, J. M.; Navarro, A. A.

1998-01-01

The European energy policy has defined clear objectives to reduce the high dependency on fossil petroleum imports, and to increase the security of sustainable energy supply for the transport sector. Moreover, the European environmental policy is requesting clean fuels that reduce environmental risks. Liquid Bio fuels (vegetable oils and bio ethanol) appear to be in a good position to contribute to achieve these goals expressed by the established objective of European Union to reach for bio fuels a market share of 5% of motor vehicle consumption. This work presents the current state and perspectives of the production and utilisation of liquid fuels from agricultural sources by reviewing agricultural feedstocks for energy sector, conversion technologies and different ways to use bio fuels. Environmental and economical aspects are also briefly analysed. (Author) 10 refs

Techno-economic analysis of solar integrated hydrothermal liquefaction of microalgae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pearce, Matthew; Shemfe, Mobolaji; Sansom, Christopher

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Hydrothermal liquefaction and concentrated solar power provide integrated biofuel technology. • Heat kinetics and energy efficiency Aspen plus modelling of CSP and HTL. • Microalgae biofuel minimum fuel sales price of $1.23/kg. - Abstract: Integration of Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) of microalgae biomass with concentrated solar power thermal processing (CSP) for bio-oil production is a potential processing pathway for energy efficient generation of renewable biofuels. Solar HTL infrastructure avoids additional bolt-on components of conventional solar parabolic trough systems used for electricity production including heat transfer fluids, counter current heat exchangers, fluid transfer interconnectivity and electrical power control systems. The absence of such capital intensive additional equipment considerably reduces the production costs of solar HTL biofuels compared to electricity generation from conventional CSP power systems. An economic and market appraisal of variance and system economic resilience is presented. It is hypothesised that the combination of nutrient recycling with HTL/CSP unification has the potential for economically sustainable microalgae bio-oil production. A microalgae biofuel minimum fuel sales price of $1.23/kg has been modelled. Further experimental work would be able to validate this integrated model.

Causal Dynamic Relationships between Political–Economic Factors and Export Performance in the Renewable Energy Technologies Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bongsuk Sung

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This study explores how political–economic forces could affect export performance in the renewable energy technologies market. We conduct panel framework analyses to verify the characteristics of panel data for 19 countries before establishing the panel estimator meant to test the effects of political–economic forces on export specialization. We consider the results of the panel framework analyses and develop an empirical model to test casual dynamic relationships between political–economic forces and export performance. The results from the least squares dummy variable-corrected estimation indicate that the major factors promoting the export specialization of renewable energy technologies are, in order of decreasing importance, public pressure, market size, and government demand-pull policy. However, the traditional energy industry has no significant effect on export performance. Finally, this study finds that dynamic effects exist in all estimations.

Carbon mitigation with biomass: An engineering, economic and policy assessment of opportunities and implications

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, James S., III

2007-12-01

Industrial bio-energy systems provide diverse opportunities for abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions and for advancing other important policy objectives. The confluence of potential contributions to important social, economic, and environmental policy objectives with very real challenges to deployment creates rich opportunities for study. In particular, the analyses developed in this thesis aim to increase understanding of how industrial bio-energy may be applied to abate GHG emissions in prospective energy markets, the relative merits of alternate bio-energy systems, the extent to which public support for developing such systems is justified, and the public policy instruments that may be capable of providing such support. This objective is advanced through analysis of specific industrial bio-energy technologies, in the form of bottom-up engineering-economic analyses, to determine their economic performance relative to other mitigation options. These bottom-up analyses are used to inform parameter definitions in two higher-level stochastic models that explicitly account for uncertainty in key model parameters, including capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, and fuel costs. One of these models is used to develop supply curves for electricity generation and carbon mitigation from biomass-coal cofire in the U.S. The other is used to characterize the performance of multiple bio-energy systems in the context of a competitive market for low-carbon energy products. The results indicate that industrial bio-energy systems are capable of making a variety of potentially important contributions under scenarios that value anthropogenic GHG emissions. In the near term, cofire of available biomass in existing coal fired power plants has the potential to provide substantial emissions reductions at reasonable costs. Carbon prices between 30 and 70 per ton carbon could induce reductions in U.S. carbon emissions by 100 to 225 megatons carbon ("Mt

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

How to measure the economic impacts of changes in growth, feed efficiency and survival in aquaculture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kankainen, M.; Setala, J.; Berrill, I.K.; Ruohonen, K.; Noble, C.; Schneider, O.

2012-01-01

In this article we introduce a variety of bio-economic models that can be used to calculate the economic benefits associated with improved productivity in aquaculture. In the aquaculture industry, three important biological productivity factors are growth, survival and feed efficiency. The

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land

Real-time economic optimization for a fermentation process using Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2014-01-01

Fermentation is a widely used process in production of many foods, beverages, and pharmaceuticals. The main goal of the control system is to maximize profit of the fermentation process, and thus this is also the main goal of this paper. We present a simple dynamic model for a fermentation process...... and demonstrate its usefulness in economic optimization. The model is formulated as an index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE), which guarantees conservation of mass and energy in discrete form. The optimization is based on recent advances within Economic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (E......-NMPC), and also utilizes the index-1 DAE model. The E-NMPC uses the single-shooting method and the adjoint method for computation of the optimization gradients. The process constraints are relaxed to soft-constraints on the outputs. Finally we derive the analytical solution to the economic optimization problem...

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the synthesis of a bio-inspired dual-cellular fluidic flexible matrix composite adaptive structure based on a non-dimensional dynamics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Suyi; Wang, K W

2013-01-01

A recent study investigated the dynamic characteristics of an adaptive structure concept featuring dual fluidic flexible matrix composite (F 2 MC) cells inspired by the configuration of plant cells and cell walls. This novel bio-inspired system consists of two F 2 MC cells with different fiber angles connected through internal fluid circuits. It was discovered that the dual F 2 MC cellular structure can be characterized as a two degree of freedom damped mass–spring oscillator, and can be utilized as a vibration absorber or an enhanced actuator under different operation conditions. These results demonstrated that the concept is promising and further investigations are needed to develop methodologies for synthesizing future multi-cellular F 2 MC structural systems. While interesting, the previous study focused on specific case studies and analysis. That is, the outcome did not provide insight that could be generalized, or tools for synthesizing a multiple F 2 MC cellular structure. This paper attempts to address this important issue by developing a non-dimensional dynamic model, which reveals good physical insights as well as identifying crucial constitutive parameters for F 2 MC cellular design. Working with these parameters, rather than physical variables, can greatly simplify the mathematics involved in the study. A synthesis tool is then developed for the dual-cellular structure, and it is found that for each set of achievable target poles and zero, there exist multiple F 2 MC cellular designs, forming a design space. The presented physical insights and synthesis tool for the dual-cellular structure will be the building blocks for future investigation on cellular structures with a larger number of cells. (paper)

Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin L. Turner

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per

CIM-EARTH: Community integrated model of economic and resource trajectories for humankind.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, J.; Foster, I.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E.; Munson, T.; Univ. of Chicago; Hoover Inst.

2010-01-01

Climate change is a global problem with local climatic and economic impacts. Mitigation policies can be applied on large geographic scales, such as a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S., on medium geographic scales, such as the NOx program for the northeastern U.S., or on smaller scales, such as statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes. To enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of mitigation policies, we are developing dynamic general equilibrium models capable of incorporating important climate impacts. This report describes the economic framework we have developed and the current Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind (CIM-EARTH) instance.

ORBiT: Oak Ridge Bio-surveillance Toolkit for Public Health Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramanathan, Arvind [ORNL; Pullum, Laura L [ORNL; Hobson, Tanner C [ORNL; Steed, Chad A [ORNL; Chennubhotla, Chakra [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine; Quinn, Shannon [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine

2015-01-01

With novel emerging infectious diseases being reported across different parts of the world, there is a need to build effective bio-surveillance systems that can track, monitor and report such events in a timely manner. Apart from monitoring for emerging disease outbreaks, it is also important to identify susceptible geographic regions and populations where these diseases may have a significant impact. The digitization of health related information through electronic health records (EHR) and electronic healthcare claim reimbursements (eHCR) and the continued growth of self-reported health information through social media provides both tremendous opportunities and challenges in developing novel public health surveillance tools. In this paper, we present an overview of Oak Ridge Bio-surveillance Toolkit (ORBiT), which we have developed specifically to address data analytic challenges in the realm of public health surveillance. In particular, ORBiT provides an extensible environment to pull together diverse, large-scale datasets and analyze them to identify spatial and temporal patterns for various bio-surveillance related tasks. We demonstrate the utility of ORBiT in automatically extracting a small number of spatial and temporal patterns during the 2009-2010 pandemic H1N1 flu season using eHCR data. These patterns provide quantitative insights into the dynamics of how the pandemic flu spread across different parts of the country. We discovered that the eHCR data exhibits multi-scale patterns from which we could identify a small number of states in the United States (US) that act as bridge regions contributing to one or more specific influenza spread patterns. Similar to previous studies, the patterns show that the south-eastern regions of the US were widely affected by the H1N1 flu pandemic. Several of these south-eastern states act as bridge regions, which connect the north-east and central US in terms of flu occurrences. These quantitative insights show how the e

Kinetic modelling of methane production during bio-electrolysis from anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge and food waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Prajapati, Kalp Bhusan; Singh, Rajesh

2018-05-10

In present study batch tests were performed to investigate the enhancement in methane production under bio-electrolysis anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge and food waste. The bio-electrolysis reactor system (B-EL) yield more methane 148.5 ml/g COD in comparison to reactor system without bio-electrolysis (B-CONT) 125.1 ml/g COD. Whereas bio-electrolysis reactor system (C-EL) Iron Scraps amended yield lesser methane (51.2 ml/g COD) in comparison to control bio-electrolysis reactor system without Iron scraps (C-CONT - 114.4 ml/g COD). Richard and Exponential model were best fitted for cumulative methane production and biogas production rates respectively as revealed modelling study. The best model fit for the different reactors was compared by Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The bioelectrolysis process seems to be an emerging technology with lesser the loss in cellulase specific activity with increasing temperature from 50 to 80 °C. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Incorporating Risks in Economic Values for Pigs in Smallholder Production Systems in Kenya

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mbuthias, Jackson; Rewe, Thomas; Okeno, Tobias

production systems in Kenya. In addition to traditional bio-economic profit model, a risk-rated model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained...... for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50%. Therefore both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used...

Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

2016-01-01

Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

Bio energy: Bio fuel - Properties and Production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilhelmsen, Gunnar; Martinsen, Arnold Kyrre; Sandberg, Eiliv; Fladset, Per Olav; Kjerschow, Einar; Teslo, Einar

2001-01-01

This is Chapter 3 of the book ''Bio energy - Environment, technique and market''. Its main sections are: (1) Definitions and properties, (2) Bio fuel from the forest, (3) Processed bio fuel - briquettes, pellets and powder, (4) Bio fuel from agriculture, (5) Bio fuel from agro industry, (6) Bio fuel from lakes and sea, (7) Bio fuel from aquaculture, (8) Bio fuel from wastes and (9) Hydrogen as a fuel. The exposition largely describes the conditions in Norway. The chapter on energy from the forest includes products from the timber and sawmill industry, the pulp and paper industry, furniture factories etc. Among agricultural sources are straw, energy forests, vegetable oil, bio ethanol, manure

Multiscale modeling of complex molecular structure and dynamics with MBN Explorer

CERN Document Server

Solov’yov, Ilia A; Solov’yov, Andrey V

2017-01-01

This book introduces readers to MesoBioNano (MBN) Explorer – a multi-purpose software package designed to model molecular systems at various levels of size and complexity. In addition, it presents a specially designed multi-task toolkit and interface – the MBN Studio – which enables the set-up of input files, controls the simulations, and supports the subsequent visualization and analysis of the results obtained. The book subsequently provides a systematic description of the capabilities of this universal and powerful software package within the framework of computational molecular science, and guides readers through its applications in numerous areas of research in bio- and chemical physics and material science – ranging from the nano- to the meso-scale. MBN Explorer is particularly suited to computing the system’s energy, to optimizing molecular structure, and to exploring the various facets of molecular and random walk dynamics. The package allows the use of a broad variety of interatomic potenti...

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

Bio-Inspired Sustainability Assessment for Building Product Development—Concept and Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Horn

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Technological advancement culminating in a globalized economy has brought tremendous improvements for mankind in manifold respects but comes at the cost of alienation from nature. Human activities nowadays are unsustainable and cause severe damage especially in terms of global depletion and destabilization of natural systems but also harm its own social resources. In this paper, a sustainability assessment method is developed based on a bio-inspired sustainability framework that has been developed in the project TRR 141-C01 “The biomimetic promise.” It is aims at regaining the advantages of societal embeddedness in its environment through biological inspiration. The method is developed using a structured approach including requirement specification, description of the inventory models on bio-inspiration and sustainability assessment, creation of a bio-inspired sustainability assessment model and its validation. It is defined as an accompanying assessment for decision support, using a six-fold two-dimensional structure of social, economic and environmental functions and burdens. The method is applied and validated in 6 projects of TRR 141 and its applicability is exemplarily shown by the assessment of “Bio-flexi”, a biobased and biodegradable natural fiber reinforced plastic composite for indoor cladding applications. Based on the findings of the application the assessment method itself is proposed to be advanced towards an adaptive structure and a consequent outlook is provided.

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gibson EJ

2018-03-01

Full Text Available EJ Gibson,1 N Begum,1 I Koblbauer,1 G Dranitsaris,2 D Liew,3 P McEwan,4 AA Tahami Monfared,5,6 Y Yuan,7 A Juarez-Garcia,7 D Tyas,8 M Lees9 1Wickenstones Ltd, Didcot, UK; 2Augmentium Pharma Consulting Inc, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; 4Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK; 5Bristol-Myers Squibb Canada, Saint-Laurent, QC Canada; 6Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; 7Bristol-Myers Squibb, Princeton, NJ, USA; 8Bristol-Myers Squibb, Uxbridge, UK; 9Bristol-Myers Squibb, Rueil-Malmaison, France Background: Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods: This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs. Results: The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%. Conclusion: Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models

ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria G. MACOVEI

2008-06-01

Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

The “Dynamic South,” Economic Development and Inclusive Growth ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

25 sept. 2013 ... The impact of the 2008 economic crisis on labour markets and the role of social protection in these four emerging economies are among the subjects tackled in The "Dynamic South," Economic Development and Inclusive Growth: The Challenges Ahead. Edited by Alexandre de Freitas Barbosa and Maria ...

Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darya I. Ushkalova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.

2009-12-01

Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is

Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

OpenAIRE

Muminova, Adiba

2015-01-01

This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

Development and implementation of a dynamic TES dispatch control component in a PV-CSP techno-economic performance modelling tool

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Linus; Guédez, Rafael; Larchet, Kevin; Laumert, Bjorn

2017-06-01

The dispatchability offered by thermal energy storage (TES) in concentrated solar power (CSP) and solar hybrid plants based on such technology presents the most important difference compared to power generation based only on photovoltaics (PV). This has also been one reason for recent hybridization efforts of the two technologies and the creation of Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) payment schemes based on offering higher payment multiples during daily hours of higher (peak or priority) demand. Recent studies involving plant-level thermal energy storage control strategies are however to a large extent based on pre-determined approaches, thereby not taking into account the actual dynamics of thermal energy storage system operation. In this study, the implementation of a dynamic dispatch strategy in the form of a TRNSYS controller for hybrid PV-CSP plants in the power-plant modelling tool DYESOPT is presented. In doing this it was attempted to gauge the benefits of incorporating a day-ahead approach to dispatch control compared to a fully pre-determined approach determining hourly dispatch only once prior to annual simulation. By implementing a dynamic strategy, it was found possible to enhance technical and economic performance for CSP-only plants designed for peaking operation and featuring low values of the solar multiple. This was achieved by enhancing dispatch control, primarily by taking storage levels at the beginning of every simulation day into account. The sequential prediction of the TES level could therefore be improved, notably for evaluated plants without integrated PV, for which the predicted storage levels deviated less than when PV was present in the design. While also featuring dispatch performance gains, optimal plant configurations for hybrid PV-CSP was found to present a trade-off in economic performance in the form of an increase in break-even electricity price when using the dynamic strategy which was offset to some extent by a reduction in

Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

Science.gov (United States)

Postnikov, E. B.

2015-07-01

The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

Bio-SimVerb and Bio-SimLex: wide-coverage evaluation sets of word similarity in biomedicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Billy; Pyysalo, Sampo; Vulić, Ivan; Korhonen, Anna

2018-02-05

Word representations support a variety of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. The quality of these representations is typically assessed by comparing the distances in the induced vector spaces against human similarity judgements. Whereas comprehensive evaluation resources have recently been developed for the general domain, similar resources for biomedicine currently suffer from the lack of coverage, both in terms of word types included and with respect to the semantic distinctions. Notably, verbs have been excluded, although they are essential for the interpretation of biomedical language. Further, current resources do not discern between semantic similarity and semantic relatedness, although this has been proven as an important predictor of the usefulness of word representations and their performance in downstream applications. We present two novel comprehensive resources targeting the evaluation of word representations in biomedicine. These resources, Bio-SimVerb and Bio-SimLex, address the previously mentioned problems, and can be used for evaluations of verb and noun representations respectively. In our experiments, we have computed the Pearson's correlation between performances on intrinsic and extrinsic tasks using twelve popular state-of-the-art representation models (e.g. word2vec models). The intrinsic-extrinsic correlations using our datasets are notably higher than with previous intrinsic evaluation benchmarks such as UMNSRS and MayoSRS. In addition, when evaluating representation models for their abilities to capture verb and noun semantics individually, we show a considerable variation between performances across all models. Bio-SimVerb and Bio-SimLex enable intrinsic evaluation of word representations. This evaluation can serve as a predictor of performance on various downstream tasks in the biomedical domain. The results on Bio-SimVerb and Bio-SimLex using standard word representation models highlight the importance of developing dedicated

Modelling the socio-economic impacts of modern bioenergy in rural communities in Ghana

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kemausuor, Francis; Bolwig, Simon; Miller, Shelie

2016-01-01

economic and social indicators. With a 10% discount rate, a 30 year bio-digester lifetime and methane tariff starting at US$ 0.7/m3, the project will have a Net Present Value of approximately US$ 22,000, 16 year payback and an Internal Rate of Return of 11%. The project will create 4 full time unskilled...... labour positions during the investment year and 3 positions during operation years. Using methane from the bio-digester for cooking will displace approximately 170 tonnes of firewood per year and save the women in the community a total of 3400 hours per year not fetching firewood. However, only 5...

e-Dairy: a dynamic and stochastic whole-farm model that predicts biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Baudracco, J; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Holmes, C W; Comeron, E A; Macdonald, K A; Barry, T N

2013-05-01

A whole-farm, stochastic and dynamic simulation model was developed to predict biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems. Several whole-farm models simulate grazing dairy systems, but most of them work at a herd level. This model, named e-Dairy, differs from the few models that work at an animal level, because it allows stochastic behaviour of the genetic merit of individual cows for several traits, namely, yields of milk, fat and protein, live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS) within a whole-farm model. This model accounts for genetic differences between cows, is sensitive to genotype × environment interactions at an animal level and allows pasture growth, milk and supplements price to behave stochastically. The model includes an energy-based animal module that predicts intake at grazing, mammary gland functioning and body lipid change. This whole-farm model simulates a 365-day period for individual cows within a herd, with cow parameters randomly generated on the basis of the mean parameter values, defined as input and variance and co-variances from experimental data sets. The main inputs of e-Dairy are farm area, use of land, type of pasture, type of crops, monthly pasture growth rate, supplements offered, nutritional quality of feeds, herd description including herd size, age structure, calving pattern, BCS and LW at calving, probabilities of pregnancy, average genetic merit and economic values for items of income and costs. The model allows to set management policies to define: dry-off cows (ceasing of lactation), target pre- and post-grazing herbage mass and feed supplementation. The main outputs are herbage dry matter intake, annual pasture utilisation, milk yield, changes in BCS and LW, economic farm profit and return on assets. The model showed satisfactory accuracy of prediction when validated against two data sets from farmlet system experiments. Relative prediction errors were <10% for all variables, and concordance

Engineering BioBrick vectors from BioBrick parts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knight Thomas F

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The underlying goal of synthetic biology is to make the process of engineering biological systems easier. Recent work has focused on defining and developing standard biological parts. The technical standard that has gained the most traction in the synthetic biology community is the BioBrick standard for physical composition of genetic parts. Parts that conform to the BioBrick assembly standard are BioBrick standard biological parts. To date, over 2,000 BioBrick parts have been contributed to, and are available from, the Registry of Standard Biological Parts. Results Here we extended the same advantages of BioBrick standard biological parts to the plasmid-based vectors that are used to provide and propagate BioBrick parts. We developed a process for engineering BioBrick vectors from BioBrick parts. We designed a new set of BioBrick parts that encode many useful vector functions. We combined the new parts to make a BioBrick base vector that facilitates BioBrick vector construction. We demonstrated the utility of the process by constructing seven new BioBrick vectors. We also successfully used the resulting vectors to assemble and propagate other BioBrick standard biological parts. Conclusion We extended the principles of part reuse and standardization to BioBrick vectors. As a result, myriad new BioBrick vectors can be readily produced from all existing and newly designed BioBrick parts. We invite the synthetic biology community to (1 use the process to make and share new BioBrick vectors; (2 expand the current collection of BioBrick vector parts; and (3 characterize and improve the available collection of BioBrick vector parts.

[Various methods of dynamic functional analysis in human sciences and economics].

Science.gov (United States)

Schiltz, J

2006-01-01

Including the temporal and developmental dimension into the measurement of human conduct is a fundamental concern for those who do research in natural surroundings. Observing an individual day after day may possibly give a more complete vision of how behavior works than measuring a group of individuals at a single time and analyzing the differences found among them. Unfortunately most of the tools allowing analyzing individual time series call for large numbers of repeated observations. Thus, practicable longitudinal research designs often do not involve either enough repeated measurements for traditional time series analyses nor either replicate enough individuals for traditional, large-sample analyses. Dynamic factor analysis is a rationale and procedure for both pooling relatively short time series information across limited numbers of participants and analyzing the pooled information for its dynamic, process-relevant elements. It is a merging of two important analytical tools - multivariate time series and the common factor model, from which it distinguishes itself mainly by the fact that in dynamic factor analysis, the values of the common factors can influence the values of the observed variables both concurrently and in delayed fashion. Dynamic factor analysis is actually a method which allows detecting structures in the time series as well as the relations between the series and the explanatory variables. We illustrate the different models used in psychology and social sciences, as well as in econometry and economics.

Interpreting the dynamic nexus between energy consumption and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yuejun

2011-01-01

Research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low-carbon economic development. Russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years, while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now, especially its energy-growth nexus. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in Russia based on the state space model. The results indicate that, first of all, Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. Hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner. Second, ever since the year of 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades, mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress. Third, among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst, which suggests the complexity of energy-growth nexus in Russia. Finally, there exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory. - Research highlights: →This study investigates the dynamic nexus of energy consumption and economic growth in Russia. → Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. → Ever since 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades. → Among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst. → There exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth.

Using Dynamic Transmission Modeling to Determine Vaccination Coverage Rate Based on 5-Year Economic Burden of Infectious Disease: An Example of Pneumococcal Vaccine.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Yu-Wen; Wu, Hsin; Chang, Chee-Jen

2015-05-01

Vaccination can reduce the incidence and mortality of an infectious disease and thus increase the years of life and productivity for the entire society. But when determining the vaccination coverage rate, its economic burden is usually not taken into account. This article aimed to use a dynamic transmission modeling (DTM), which is based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model and is a system of differential equations, to find the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the economic burden of an infectious disease. Vaccination for pneumococcal diseases was used as an example to demonstrate the main purpose. 23-Valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have shown their cost-effectiveness in elderly and children, respectively. Scenarios analysis of PPV23 to elderly aged 65+ years and of PCV13 to children aged 0 to 4 years was applied to assess the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the 5-year economic burden. Model parameters were derived from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, government data, and published literature. Various vaccination coverage rates, the vaccine efficacy, and all epidemiologic parameters were substituted into DTM, and all differential equations were solved in R Statistical Software. If the coverage rate of PPV23 for the elderly and of PCV13 for the children both reach 50%, the economic burden due to pneumococcal disease will be acceptable. This article provided an alternative perspective from the economic burden of diseases to obtain a vaccination coverage rate using the DTM. This will provide valuable information for vaccination policy decision makers. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic feasibility of animal welfare improvements in Dutch intensive livestock production: A comparison between broiler, laying hen, and fattening pig farms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gocsik, E.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Voermans, G.; Saatkamp, H.W.

2015-01-01

This study compared the economic feasibility of production systems with different levels of animal welfare (AW) in the broiler, laying hen, and fattening pig sectors. Economic feasibility over a five-year time horizon was assessed using stochastic bio-economic simulation models. The results suggest

Eco-innovation Dynamics - Creative Destruction ad Creative accumulation in green Economic Evolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Maj Munch

2010-01-01

The last few years green innovation or ‘eco-innovation’ is increasingly recognized as a main driver and goal of economic development. This represents a marked shift from earlier when the environment generally was considered a burden to business. This paper seeks to contribute to a fundamental...... of the economic system. The discussion aims more generally to contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of techno-economic paradigm shifts. It is argued that green economic evolution represents an interesting case of how selection properties are undergoing change over time, a neglected theme in evolutionary...... explanation of (green) economic evolution. At the micro level, the paper argues, and seeks to exemplify, that eco-innovation dynamics are characterized by both processes of creative destruction and creative accumulation. The paper proposes that it is possible to define a specific green heuristics leading...

Opportunities for a bio-based economy in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, J.; Hoeven, D. van der

2008-01-01

The shift to a bio-based economy for the Netherlands is not only required because of climate change, but also for industrial strategy reasons. Traditional strongholds of the Dutch economy like the Rotterdam harbour, the agricultural sector (including the greenhouse sector, and food and feed industries) and the petrochemical industry will be affected by the new economic realities, and it is precisely to these sectors that a bio-based economy will offer new opportunities. (author)

SketchBio: a scientist's 3D interface for molecular modeling and animation.

Science.gov (United States)

Waldon, Shawn M; Thompson, Peter M; Hahn, Patrick J; Taylor, Russell M

2014-10-30

Because of the difficulties involved in learning and using 3D modeling and rendering software, many scientists hire programmers or animators to create models and animations. This both slows the discovery process and provides opportunities for miscommunication. Working with multiple collaborators, a tool was developed (based on a set of design goals) to enable them to directly construct models and animations. SketchBio is presented, a tool that incorporates state-of-the-art bimanual interaction and drop shadows to enable rapid construction of molecular structures and animations. It includes three novel features: crystal-by-example, pose-mode physics, and spring-based layout that accelerate operations common in the formation of molecular models. Design decisions and their consequences are presented, including cases where iterative design was required to produce effective approaches. The design decisions, novel features, and inclusion of state-of-the-art techniques enabled SketchBio to meet all of its design goals. These features and decisions can be incorporated into existing and new tools to improve their effectiveness.

Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

2004-11-01

Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges to the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.

Values of Land and Renewable Resources in a Three-Sector Economic Growth Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Wei-Bin

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This paper studies dynamic interdependence of capital, land and resource values in a three sector growth model with endogenous wealth and renewable resources. The model is based on the neoclassical growth theory, Ricardian theory and growth theory with renewable resources. The household’s decision is modeled with an alternative approach proposed by Zhang two decades ago. The economic system consists of the households, industrial, agricultural, and resource sectors. The model describes a dynamic interdependence between wealth accumulation, resource change, and division of labor under perfect competition. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of a unique stable equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. The study conducts comparative dynamic analysis with regard to changes in the propensity to consume resources, the propensity to consume housing, the propensity to consume agricultural goods, the propensity to consume industrial goods, the propensity to save, the population, and the output elasticity of capital of the resource sector.

FDTD Modeling of Nano- and Bio-Photonic Imaging

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanev, Stoyan; Tuchin, Valery; Pond, James

2010-01-01

to address newly emerging problems and not so much on its mathematical formulation. We will first discuss the application of a traditional formulation of the FDTD approach to the modeling of sub-wavelength photonics structures. Next, a modified total/scattered field FDTD approach will be applied...... to the modeling of biophotonics applications including Optical Phase Contrast Microscope (OPCM) imaging of cells containing gold nanoparticles (NPs) as well as its potential application as a modality for in vivo flow cytometry configurations.......In this paper we focus on the discussion of two recent unique applications of the Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) simulation method to the design and modeling of advanced nano- and bio-photonic problems. The approach that is adopted here focuses on the potential of the FDTD methodology...

BioXmark for high-precision radiotherapy in an orthotopic pancreatic tumor mouse model. Experiences with a liquid fiducial marker

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobiasch, S.; Kampfer, S.; Burkhardt, R.; Wilkens, J.J.; Schilling, D.; Schmid, T.E.; Combs, S.E.

2017-01-01

High-precision radiotherapy (RT) requires precise positioning, particularly with high single doses. Fiducial markers in combination with onboard imaging are excellent tools to support this. The purpose of this study is to establish a pancreatic cancer mouse model for high-precision image-guided RT (IGRT) using the liquid fiducial marker BioXmark (Nanovi, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark). In an animal-based cancer model, different volumes of BioXmark (10-50 μl), application forms, and imaging modalities - cone-beam computer tomography (CBCT) incorporated in either the Small Animal Radiation Research Platform (SARRP) or the small-animal micro-CT Scanner (SkyScan; Bruker, Brussels, Belgium) - as well as subsequent RT with the SARRP system were analyzed to derive recommendations for BioXmark. Even small volumes (10 μl) of BioXmark could be detected by CBCT (SARRP and Skyscan). Larger volumes (50 μl) led to hardening artefacts. The position of BioXmark was monitored at least weekly by CBCT and was stable over 4 months. BioXmark was shown to be well tolerated; no changes in physical condition or toxic side effects were observed in comparison to control mice. BioXmark enabled an exact fusion with the original treatment plan with less hardening artefacts, and minimized the application of contrast agent for fractionated RT. An orthotopic pancreatic tumor mouse model was established for high-precision IGRT using a fiducial marker. BioXmark was successfully tested and provides the perfect basis for improved imaging in high-precision RT. BioXmark enables a unique application method and optimal targeted precision in fractionated RT. Therefore, preclinical trials evaluating novel fractionation regimens and/or combination treatment with high-end RT can be performed. (orig.) [de

A Comparative Study of Spatial Aggregation Methodologies under the BioEarth Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Chandrasekharan, B.; Rajagopalan, K.; Malek, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.

2014-12-01

The increasing probability of water resource scarcity due to climate change has highlighted the need for adopting an economic focus in modelling water resource uses. Hydro-economic models, developed by integrating economic optimization with biophysical crop models, are driven by the economic value of water, revealing it's most efficient uses and helping policymakers evaluate different water management strategies. One of the challenges in integrating biophysical models with economic models is the difference in the spatial scales in which they operate. Biophysical models that provide crop production functions typically run at smaller scale than economic models, and substantial spatial aggregation is required. However, any aggregation introduces a bias, i.e., a discrepancy between the functional value at the higher spatial scale and the value at the spatial scale of the aggregated units. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of net economic benefits in the Yakima River basin (YRB) to different spatial aggregation methods for crop production functions. The spatial aggregation methodologies that we compare involve agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and aggregation levels that reflect water management regimes (e.g. irrigation districts). Aggregation bias can distort the underlying data and result in extreme solutions. In order to avoid this we use an economic optimization model that incorporates the synthetic and historical crop mixes approach (Onal & Chen, 2012). This restricts the solutions between the weighted averages of historical and simulated feasible planting decisions, with the weights associated with crop mixes being treated as endogenous variables. This study is focused on 5 major irrigation districts of the YRB in the Pacific Northwest US. The biophysical modeling framework we use, BioEarth, includes the coupled hydrology and crop growth model, VIC-Cropsyst and an economic optimization model. Preliminary findings indicate that the standard approach

An improved Pattern Search based algorithm to solve the Dynamic Economic Dispatch problem with valve-point effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alsumait, J.S.; Qasem, M.; Sykulski, J.K.; Al-Othman, A.K.

2010-01-01

In this paper, an improved algorithm based on Pattern Search method (PS) to solve the Dynamic Economic Dispatch is proposed. The algorithm maintains the essential unit ramp rate constraint, along with all other necessary constraints, not only for the time horizon of operation (24 h), but it preserves these constraints through the transaction period to the next time horizon (next day) in order to avoid the discontinuity of the power system operation. The Dynamic Economic and Emission Dispatch problem (DEED) is also considered. The load balance constraints, operating limits, valve-point loading and network losses are included in the models of both DED and DEED. The numerical results clarify the significance of the improved algorithm and verify its performance.

Reproduction of Economic Interests as a Nonlinear Dynamical System

OpenAIRE

Smiesova Viktoria L.

2017-01-01

The aim of the article is to define the system characteristics of reproduction of economic interests of actors, substantiate the possibility of its evolutionary and revolutionary development and the nonlinearity of its development in dynamics. The article justifies the main characteristics of the system of reproduction of economic interests. It is proved that in this system stability and variability are complementarily combined as integrated mechanisms of its development in statics and dynami...

Energetic-economic dynamic computational analysis of plants with small capacity - Gera model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storfer, A.F.; Demanboro, A.C. de; Campello, C.A.G.B.

1990-01-01

A methodology and mathematical model for energy and economic analysis of hydroelectric power plants with low and medium capacity are presented. This methodology will be used for isolated or integrated hydroelectric power plants, including plants that part of their produced energy will go to the site market and part will go to regional electric system. (author)

Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Russo, Lucia

2013-01-01

Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situations. Toward this aim mathematical modeling plays an important role in efforts that focus on predicting, assessing, and controlling potential outbreaks. To better understand and model the contagious dynamics the impact of numerous variables ranging from the micro host–pathogen level to host-to-host interactions, as well as prevailing ecological, social, economic, and demographic factors across the globe have to be analyzed and thoroughly studied. Here, we present and discuss the main approaches that are used for the surveillance and modeling of infectious disease dynamics. We present the basic concepts underpinning their implementation and practice and for each category we give an annotated list of representative works. PMID:23552814

BioTapestry now provides a web application and improved drawing and layout tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Paquette, Suzanne M; Leinonen, Kalle; Longabaugh, William J R

2016-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) control embryonic development, and to understand this process in depth, researchers need to have a detailed understanding of both the network architecture and its dynamic evolution over time and space. Interactive visualization tools better enable researchers to conceptualize, understand, and share GRN models. BioTapestry is an established application designed to fill this role, and recent enhancements released in Versions 6 and 7 have targeted two major facets of the program. First, we introduced significant improvements for network drawing and automatic layout that have now made it much easier for the user to create larger, more organized network drawings. Second, we revised the program architecture so it could continue to support the current Java desktop Editor program, while introducing a new BioTapestry GRN Viewer that runs as a JavaScript web application in a browser. We have deployed a number of GRN models using this new web application. These improvements will ensure that BioTapestry remains viable as a research tool in the face of the continuing evolution of web technologies, and as our understanding of GRN models grows.

Renewable Resources, Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin Zhang

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a dynamic economic model with physical capital and renewable resources. Different from most of the neoclassical growth models with renewable resources which are based on microeconomic foundation and neglect physical capital accumulation, this study proposes a growth model with dynamics of renewable resources and physical capital accumulation. The model is a synthesis of the neoclassical growth theory and the traditional dynamic models of renewable resources with an alternative approach to household behavior. The model describes a dynamic interdependence among physical accumulation, resource change, and division of labor under perfect competition. Because of its refined economic structure, our study enables some interactions among economic variables which are not found in the existing literature on economic growth with renewable resources. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of equilibrium points and motion of the dynamic system. Our comparative dynamic analysis shows, for instance, that a rise in the propensity to consume the renewable resource increases the interest rate and reduces the national and production sector’s capital stocks, wage rate and level of the consumption good. Moreover, it initially reduces and then increases the capital stocks of the resource sector and the consumption and price of the renewable resource. The stock of the renewable resource is initially increased and then reduced. Finally, labor is redistributed from the production to the resource sector.

The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Bondarenko, Y.

I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

A real-time web-based optimal Biomass Site Assessment Tool (BioSAT): Module 1. An economic assessment of mill residues for the southern U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Timothy M. Young; James H. Perdue; Andy Hartsell; Robert C. Abt; Donald Hodges; Timothy G. Rials

2009-01-01

Optimal locations for biomass facilities that use mill residues are identified for 13 southern U.S. states. The Biomass Site Assessment Tool (BioSAT) model is used to identify the top 20 locations for 13 southern U.S. states. The trucking cost model of BioSAT is used with Timber Mart South 2009 price data to estimate the total cost, average cost, and marginal costs for...

A dynamic factor model of the evaluation of the financial crisis in Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Sezgin, F; Kinay, B

2010-01-01

Factor analysis has been widely used in economics and finance in situations where a relatively large number of variables are believed to be driven by few common causes of variation. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) which is a combination of factor and time series analysis, involves autocorrelation matrices calculated from multivariate time series. Dynamic factor models were traditionally used to construct economic indicators, macroeconomic analysis, business cycles and forecasting. In recent years, dynamic factor models have become more popular in empirical macroeconomics. They have more advantages than other methods in various respects. Factor models can for instance cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in regression-based analysis. In this study, a model which determines the effect of the global crisis on Turkey is proposed. The main aim of the paper is to analyze how several macroeconomic quantities show an alteration before the evolution of the crisis and to decide if a crisis can be forecasted or not.

Assessing bio-economic impacts and climate adaptation potential in Flanders

Science.gov (United States)

Gobin, A.

2009-04-01

. The interaction between these effects depends on the crop type. The impact on crop production was simulated with a dynamic vegetation model for eight crops (winter wheat, potatoes, sugar beet, fodder maize, grass, grain maize, cauliflower spring, cauliflower autumn), three soil types (loamy sand, loam, clay) and four climatic data series (historic and three cc-scenarios). The three climate change scenarios were selected on the basis of multi-criteria analysis of the PRUDENCE RCM runs. In total 3480 year simulations were executed with a daily modelling step. Pronounced yield losses mainly due to water shortages and heat stress occur for all climate change scenario's, to a lesser extent in the case of winter and spring crops. Yield losses of up to 30% are simulated for sugar beet, whereas winter wheat losses are only 6 % on loamy sand. High critical temperatures lead to heat stress, decreased fodder uptake, outbreaks of diseases and ultimately to animal production losses. Changes in animal production were calculated with a threshold model, whereby a daily maximum temperature of 30°C was taken as the production limit. Calculated animal production losses are up to 9 % for sheep, 8 % for cattle, 6 % for pigs and 3% for poultry. An economic prognosis of the technical productivity, the price effect, the required agricultural area and number of animals was used to estimate the potential productivity for 16 agricultural activities. The impact of climate change was included through aggregating the modelled production losses for Flanders and assuming the agricultural area, the number of animals and the prices constant to the economic prognosis. The total financial impacts are 0.1 % or 6.6 million euro for the first scenario, 1.5% or 71 million euro for the second scenario and 4.1% or 201 million euro for the third scenario. The results represent the acceptable cost of adaptation measures to maintain current efficiencies and production levels. Three gradations of adaptation were

Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farnad Nasirzadeh

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.

A numerical study on dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer during hyperthermia treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, P; Kumar, Dinesh; Rai, K N

2015-01-01

The success of hyperthermia in the treatment of cancer depends on the precise prediction and control of temperature. It was absolutely a necessity for hyperthermia treatment planning to understand the temperature distribution within living biological tissues. In this paper, dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has been studied using Gaussian distribution source term under most generalized boundary condition during hyperthermia treatment. An approximate analytical solution of the present problem has been done by Finite element wavelet Galerkin method which uses Legendre wavelet as a basis function. Multi-resolution analysis of Legendre wavelet in the present case localizes small scale variations of solution and fast switching of functional bases. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. The dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has compared with Pennes and Thermal wave model of bio-heat transfer and it has been found that large differences in the temperature at the hyperthermia position and time to achieve the hyperthermia temperature exist, when we increase the value of τT. Particular cases when surface subjected to boundary condition of 1st, 2nd and 3rd kind are discussed in detail. The use of dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer and finite element wavelet Galerkin method as a solution method helps in precise prediction of temperature. Gaussian distribution source term helps in control of temperature during hyperthermia treatment. So, it makes this study more useful for clinical applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Bio-Economy Concept and Knowledge Base in a Public Goods and Farmer Perspective

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Otto Schmidt

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Currently an industrial perspective dominates the EU policy framework for a European bio-economy. The Commission’s proposal on the bio-economy emphasises greater resource-efficiency, largely within an industrial perspective on global economic competitiveness, benefiting capital-intensive industries at higher levels of the value chain. However a responsible bio-economy must initially address the sustainable use of resources. Many farmers are not only commodity producers but also providers of quality food and managers of the eco-system. A public goods-oriented bio-economy emphasises agro-ecological methods, organic and low (external input farming systems, ecosystem services, social innovation in multi-stakeholder collective practices and joint production of knowledge. The potential of farmers and SMEs to contribute to innovation must be fully recognised. This approach recognises the importance of local knowledge enhancing local capabilities, while also accommodating diversity and complexity. Therefore the bio-economy concept should have a much broader scope than the dominant one in European Commission innovation policy. Socio-economic research is needed to inform strategies, pathways and stakeholder cooperation towards sustainability goals.

Assessment of biofuels supporting policies using the BioTrans model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lensink, Sander; Londo, Marc

2010-01-01

The introduction of advanced, 2nd generation biofuels is a difficult to forecast process. Policies may impact the timing of their introduction and the future biofuels mix. The least-cost optimization model BioTrans supports policy analyses on these issues. It includes costs for all parts of the supply chain, and endogenous learning for all biofuels technologies, including cost reductions through scale. BioTrans shows that there are significant lock-in effects favouring traditional biofuels, and that the optimal biofuels mix by 2030 is path dependent. The model captures important barriers for the introduction of emerging technologies, thereby providing valuable quantitative information that can be used in analyses of biofuels supporting policies. It is shown that biodiesel from oil crops will remain a cost effective way of producing biofuels in the medium term at moderate target levels. Aiming solely at least-cost biofuel production is in conflict with a longer term portfolio approach on biofuels, and the desire to come to biofuels with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions. Lowering the targets because of environmental constraints delays the development of 2nd generation biofuels, unless additional policy measures (such as specific sub targets for these fuels) are implemented.

40 years of Bio-Psycho-Social model: what’s new?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kholmogorova A.B.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Bio-Psycho-Social Model, proposed by George Engel in 1977, was recognized as a turning point in the praxis of medical diagnosis and treatments. Bio-Psycho-Social Model should be seen in a historical context as bucking against the trend of biological reductionism. Social Neuroscience has been formed ten years. Social neuroscience aims to investigate the biological systems that underlie people’s thoughts, feelings and actions in light of the social context in which they operate. Social neuroscience has captured the interest of anthropologists, psychiatrists, psychologists, and experts in other disciplines, as well as the general public who more and more draw upon the insights and methods of social neuroscience to explain, predict and change social behavior. An analysis of the current situation in neurosciences shows that new methods of instrumental brain research do not exclude biological reductionism. The authors qualify the situation in modern studies of social neuroscience as a methodological crisis associated with the prevalence of reductionist approaches that ignore the uniqueness of the human psyche. He substantiates the heuristic provisions of the cultural and historical development of Vygotsky’s psyche theory to overcome any contradictions

Economic dynamics of all members of the United Nations

CERN Document Server

Chukwu, Ethelbert Nwakuche

2014-01-01

This book provides an enduring response to modern economic problems and the consequent crises, dealing with the economic modelling of nations and the forecasting of economic growth. The main arguments embodied constitute the creation of jobs and the restoration of economic growth, using the implicit acceptance of analysis on differential models and neutral systems for controlling the wealth of nations.

Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

KAUST Repository

Hays, Spencer; Shen, Haipeng; Huang, Jianhua Z.

2012-01-01

resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM

Engineering challenges of BioNEMS: the integration of microfluidics, micro- and nanodevices, models and external control for systems biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Wikswo, J P; Prokop, A; Baudenbacher, F; Cliffel, D; Csukas, B; Velkovsky, M

2006-08-01

Systems biology, i.e. quantitative, postgenomic, postproteomic, dynamic, multiscale physiology, addresses in an integrative, quantitative manner the shockwave of genetic and proteomic information using computer models that may eventually have 10(6) dynamic variables with non-linear interactions. Historically, single biological measurements are made over minutes, suggesting the challenge of specifying 10(6) model parameters. Except for fluorescence and micro-electrode recordings, most cellular measurements have inadequate bandwidth to discern the time course of critical intracellular biochemical events. Micro-array expression profiles of thousands of genes cannot determine quantitative dynamic cellular signalling and metabolic variables. Major gaps must be bridged between the computational vision and experimental reality. The analysis of cellular signalling dynamics and control requires, first, micro- and nano-instruments that measure simultaneously multiple extracellular and intracellular variables with sufficient bandwidth; secondly, the ability to open existing internal control and signalling loops; thirdly, external BioMEMS micro-actuators that provide high bandwidth feedback and externally addressable intracellular nano-actuators; and, fourthly, real-time, closed-loop, single-cell control algorithms. The unravelling of the nested and coupled nature of cellular control loops requires simultaneous recording of multiple single-cell signatures. Externally controlled nano-actuators, needed to effect changes in the biochemical, mechanical and electrical environment both outside and inside the cell, will provide a major impetus for nanoscience.

Bio-coal, torrefied lignocellulosic resources – Key properties for its use in co-firing with fossil coal – Their status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agar, D.; Wihersaari, M.

2012-01-01

Bio-coal has received generous amounts of media attention because it potentially allows greater biomass co-firing rates and net CO 2 emission reductions in pulverised-coal power plants. However, little scientific research has been published on the feasibility of full-scale commercial production of bio-coal. Despite this, several companies and research organisations worldwide have been developing patented bio-coal technologies. Are the expectations of bio-coal realistic and are they based on accepted scientific data? This paper examines strictly peer-reviewed scientific publications in order to find an answer. The findings to date on three key properties of torrefied biomass are presented and reviewed. These properties are: the mass and energy balance of torrefaction, the friability of the product and the equilibrium moisture content of torrefied biomass. It is these properties that will have a major influence on the feasibility of bio-coal production regardless of reactor technology employed in production. The presented results will be of use in modelling commercial production of bio-coal in terms of economics and green-house gas emission balance. -- Highlights: ► A technical note on torrefaction research results. ► Presents experimental values on three key properties. ► Mass-energy balance, grindability, equilibrium moisture content of torrefied biomass. ► Results useful for modelling bio-coal production schemes.

A GIS based national assessment of algal bio-oil production potential through flue gas and wastewater co-utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orfield, Nolan D.; Keoleian, Gregory A.; Love, Nancy G.

2014-01-01

The high theoretical productivity of microalgae makes it a promising energy crop, but economically viable large-scale production facilities have yet to emerge. Coupling algae cultivation ponds with flue gas emissions from power utilities to provide carbon dioxide and municipal wastewater to provide nutrients has been recommended as a solution. This flue gas and wastewater co-utilization (FWC) strategy not only reduces the upstream impacts and costs associated with providing inputs, but also provides a credit for wastewater treatment, a service currently required to reduce production costs to a viable level. This study provides the first national assessment of the potential for producing algal bio-oil in the United States using FWC. Spatial-temporal algae growth was simulated using solar radiation and temperature data to calculate the average annual algae yield for any location, which significantly impacts feasibility. The results of this model were integrated into a geospatial analysis which establishes the economically viable bio-oil production potential of FWC by accounting for the relative abundance of the input resources and their proximity. At most, 1.7 billion liters of bio-oil could be produced annually in a manner economically competitive with crude oil prices of $80 per barrel. The amount of nutrients in wastewater limits yields to 20.5 L of bio-oil per capita annually, and climatic constraints further reduce this potential by nearly 60%. Carbon dioxide constraints play a negligible role. Although the bio-oil production potential of FWC is relatively small, it does provide an opportunity to increase national biofuel output while providing a needed service. - Highlights: • Spatial-temporal algae growth was simulated using historical climate data. • A geospatial overlay analysis was used to assess national production potential. • Nutrient availability in wastewater is most limiting. • At most, 1.7 billion liters of algal biofuel per year could be

Reducing Fuel Volatility. An Additional Benefit From Blending Bio-fuels?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailis, R. [Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511 (United States); Koebl, B.S. [Utrecht University, Science Technology and Society, Budapestlaan 6, 3584 CD Utrecht (Netherlands); Sanders, M. [Utrecht University, Utrecht School of Economics, Janskerkhof 12, 3512 BL Utrecht (Netherlands)

2011-02-15

Oil price volatility harms economic growth. Diversifying into different fuel types can mitigate this effect by reducing volatility in fuel prices. Producing bio-fuels may thus have additional benefits in terms of avoided damage to macro-economic growth. In this study we investigate trends and patterns in the determinants of a volatility gain in order to provide an estimate of the tendency and the size of the volatility gain in the future. The accumulated avoided loss from blending gasoline with 20 percent ethanol-fuel estimated for the US economy amounts to 795 bn. USD between 2010 and 2019 with growing tendency. An amount that should be considered in cost-benefit analysis of bio-fuels.

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Investigating the factors affecting farmers' perceived compatibility of bio- fertilizers in the Zanjan county

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Hesamedin Gholami

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The importance of bio-fertilizers has increased because of the negative consequences of using chemical fertilizers. This study that was conducted in the Zanjan County was aimed at examining the factors that affect farmers' perceived compatibility of bio- fertilizers. In this regard, among 313 active farmers in the Zanjan county, 135 farmers were contacted and surveyed through a convenient sampling to examine two categories of effective factors, i.e. personal (knowledge about and attitude toward bio-fertilizers and environmental (economic accessibility, physical accessibility to bio-fertilizers and policy and support structures factors. Binary logistic regression and discriminant analysis were applied to examine the consistency of the results. The results of two techniques showed that improving policy and support increased farmers' perceived computability and providing economic facilities decreased it. Furthermore, the results revealed that farmers' knowledge and attitude did not have a significant effect on the perceived compatibility.