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Sample records for dynamic bayesian network

  1. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learn....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....

  2. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2-Time Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from (Koller & Lerner, 2000) to model fault detection in a watertank system. In (Koller & Lerner, 2000) a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for infere...

  3. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (left)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2-Time Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from (Koller & Lerner, 2000) to model fault detection in a watertank system. In (Koller & Lerner, 2000) a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for infere...

  4. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (center)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2-Time Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from (Koller & Lerner, 2000) to model fault detection in a watertank system. In (Koller & Lerner, 2000) a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for infere...

  5. Bayesian Overlapping Community Detection in Dynamic Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ghorbani, Mahsa; Khodadadi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Detecting community structures in social networks has gained considerable attention in recent years. However, lack of prior knowledge about the number of communities, and their overlapping nature have made community detection a challenging problem. Moreover, many of the existing methods only consider static networks, while most of real world networks are dynamic and evolve over time. Hence, finding consistent overlapping communities in dynamic networks without any prior knowledge about the number of communities is still an interesting open research problem. In this paper, we present an overlapping community detection method for dynamic networks called Dynamic Bayesian Overlapping Community Detector (DBOCD). DBOCD assumes that in every snapshot of network, overlapping parts of communities are dense areas and utilizes link communities instead of common node communities. Using Recurrent Chinese Restaurant Process and community structure of the network in the last snapshot, DBOCD simultaneously extracts the numbe...

  6. Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with c

  7. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

  8. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2000-01-01

    We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

  9. Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, James M

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...

  10. Granger causality vs. dynamic Bayesian network inference: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Jianfeng

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In computational biology, one often faces the problem of deriving the causal relationship among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons and so on, based upon multi-dimensional temporal data. Currently, there are two common approaches used to explore the network structure among elements. One is the Granger causality approach, and the other is the dynamic Bayesian network inference approach. Both have at least a few thousand publications reported in the literature. A key issue is to choose which approach is used to tackle the data, in particular when they give rise to contradictory results. Results In this paper, we provide an answer by focusing on a systematic and computationally intensive comparison between the two approaches on both synthesized and experimental data. For synthesized data, a critical point of the data length is found: the dynamic Bayesian network outperforms the Granger causality approach when the data length is short, and vice versa. We then test our results in experimental data of short length which is a common scenario in current biological experiments: it is again confirmed that the dynamic Bayesian network works better. Conclusion When the data size is short, the dynamic Bayesian network inference performs better than the Granger causality approach; otherwise the Granger causality approach is better.

  11. Understanding disease processes by partitioned dynamic Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueno, Marcos L P; Hommersom, Arjen; Lucas, Peter J F; Lappenschaar, Martijn; Janzing, Joost G E

    2016-06-01

    For many clinical problems in patients the underlying pathophysiological process changes in the course of time as a result of medical interventions. In model building for such problems, the typical scarcity of data in a clinical setting has been often compensated by utilizing time homogeneous models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks. As a consequence, the specificities of the underlying process are lost in the obtained models. In the current work, we propose the new concept of partitioned dynamic Bayesian networks to capture distribution regime changes, i.e. time non-homogeneity, benefiting from an intuitive and compact representation with the solid theoretical foundation of Bayesian network models. In order to balance specificity and simplicity in real-world scenarios, we propose a heuristic algorithm to search and learn these non-homogeneous models taking into account a preference for less complex models. An extensive set of experiments were ran, in which simulating experiments show that the heuristic algorithm was capable of constructing well-suited solutions, in terms of goodness of fit and statistical distance to the original distributions, in consonance with the underlying processes that generated data, whether it was homogeneous or non-homogeneous. Finally, a study case on psychotic depression was conducted using non-homogeneous models learned by the heuristic, leading to insightful answers for clinically relevant questions concerning the dynamics of this mental disorder.

  12. Structural prediction of dynamic Bayesian network with partial prior information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiti, Aniruddha; Reddy, Ramakanth; Mukherjee, Anirban

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the structure of a hidden dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) from a noisy dataset is an important and challenging task. This work presents a generalized framework to infer the DBN network structure with partial prior information. In the proposed framework, the partial information about the network structure is provided in the form of prior. The proposed method makes use of the prior information regarding the presence and as well as absence of some of the edges. Using the noisy dataset and partial prior information, this method is able to infer nearly accurate structure of the network. The proposed method is validated using simulated datasets. In addition, two real biological datasets are used to infer hidden biological interaction networks.

  13. Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Prognosis in Machining Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Ming; YANG Zhi-bo

    2008-01-01

    Condition based maintenance (CBM) is becoming more and more popular in equipment main-tenance. A prerequisite to widespread deployment of CBM technology and practice in industry is effectivediagnostics and prognostics. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) based prognosis method was investigated topredict the remaining useful life (RUL) for an equipment. First, a DBN based prognosis framework and specificsteps for building a DBN based prognosis model were presented. Then, the corresponding inference algorithmsfor DBN based prognosis were provided. Finally, a prognosis procedure based on particle filtering algorithmswas used to predict the RUL of drill-bits of a vertical drilling machine, which is commonly used in industrialprocess. Preliminary experimental results are promising.

  14. Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Context-Aware Fall Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Koshmak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fall incidents among the elderly often occur in the home and can cause serious injuries affecting their independent living. This paper presents an approach where data from wearable sensors integrated in a smart home environment is combined using a dynamic Bayesian network. The smart home environment provides contextual data, obtained from environmental sensors, and contributes to assessing a fall risk probability. The evaluation of the developed system is performed through simulation. Each time step is represented by a single user activity and interacts with a fall sensors located on a mobile device. A posterior probability is calculated for each recognized activity or contextual information. The output of the system provides a total risk assessment of falling given a response from the fall sensor.

  15. Reduced complexity turbo equalization using a dynamic Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myburgh, Hermanus C.; Olivier, Jan C.; van Zyl, Augustinus J.

    2012-12-01

    It is proposed that a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is used to perform turbo equalization in a system transmitting information over a Rayleigh fading multipath channel. The DBN turbo equalizer (DBN-TE) is modeled on a single directed acyclic graph by relaxing the Markov assumption and allowing weak connections to past and future states. Its complexity is exponential in encoder constraint length and approximately linear in the channel memory length. Results show that the performance of the DBN-TE closely matches that of a traditional turbo equalizer that uses a maximum a posteriori equalizer and decoder pair. The DBN-TE achieves full convergence and near-optimal performance after small number of iterations.

  16. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  17. Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim

    2010-01-01

    Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...

  18. Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2017-01-05

    Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks.

  19. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  20. Regularization of non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks with global information-coupling based on hierarchical Bayesian models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    To relax the homogeneity assumption of classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), various recent studies have combined DBNs with multiple changepoint processes. The underlying assumption is that the parameters associated with time series segments delimited by multiple changepoints are a priori inde

  1. Bayesian networks for clinical decision support : a rational approach to dynamic decision-making under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerven, M.A.J. van

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation deals with decision support in the context of clinical oncology. (Dynamic) Bayesian networks are used as a framework for (dynamic) decision-making under uncertainty and applied to a variety of diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment problems in medicine. It is shown that the proposed

  2. Ranking Features on Psychological Dynamics of Cooperative Team Work through Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pilar Fuster-Parra; Alex García-Mas; Jaume Cantallops; F. Javier Ponseti; Yuhua Luo

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to rank some features that characterize the psychological dynamics of cooperative team work in order to determine priorities for interventions and formation: leading positive feedback, cooperative manager and collaborative manager features. From a dataset of 20 cooperative sport teams (403 soccer players), the characteristics of the prototypical sports teams are studied using an average Bayesian network (BN) and two special types of BNs, the Bayesian classifiers: naiv...

  3. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  4. Gene regulatory network modeling via global optimization of high-order dynamic Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Nguyen

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN is among the mainstream approaches for modeling various biological networks, including the gene regulatory network (GRN. Most current methods for learning DBN employ either local search such as hill-climbing, or a meta stochastic global optimization framework such as genetic algorithm or simulated annealing, which are only able to locate sub-optimal solutions. Further, current DBN applications have essentially been limited to small sized networks. Results To overcome the above difficulties, we introduce here a deterministic global optimization based DBN approach for reverse engineering genetic networks from time course gene expression data. For such DBN models that consist only of inter time slice arcs, we show that there exists a polynomial time algorithm for learning the globally optimal network structure. The proposed approach, named GlobalMIT+, employs the recently proposed information theoretic scoring metric named mutual information test (MIT. GlobalMIT+ is able to learn high-order time delayed genetic interactions, which are common to most biological systems. Evaluation of the approach using both synthetic and real data sets, including a 733 cyanobacterial gene expression data set, shows significantly improved performance over other techniques. Conclusions Our studies demonstrate that deterministic global optimization approaches can infer large scale genetic networks.

  5. Distributed Diagnosis in Uncertain Environments Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a distributed Bayesian fault diagnosis scheme for physical systems. Our diagnoser design is based on a procedure for factoring the global system...

  6. Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is ‘stationarity’, and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

  7. Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

    2015-12-18

    Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is 'stationarity', and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

  8. Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ramati, Michael

    2012-01-01

    In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient computation or an information loss to reasoning about such processes, continuous-time Markov models assume either a discrete state space (as Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks), or a flat continuous state space (as stochastic dif- ferential equations). To address these problems, we present a new modeling class called Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks (ITBNs), generalizing Dynamic Bayesian Networks, allowing substantially more compact representations, and increasing the expressivity of the temporal dynamics. In addition, a globally optimal solution is guaranteed when learning temporal systems, provided that they are fully observed at the same irregularly spaced time-points, and a semiparametric subclass of ITBNs is introduced to allow further adaptation to the irregular nature of t...

  9. Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

    2016-08-01

    Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

  10. Structure learning for Bayesian networks as models of biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjo, Antti; Shmulevich, Ilya; Lähdesmäki, Harri

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models suitable for modeling several kinds of biological systems. In many cases, the structure of a Bayesian network represents causal molecular mechanisms or statistical associations of the underlying system. Bayesian networks have been applied, for example, for inferring the structure of many biological networks from experimental data. We present some recent progress in learning the structure of static and dynamic Bayesian networks from data.

  11. Konstruksi Bayesian Network Dengan Algoritma Bayesian Association Rule Mining Network

    OpenAIRE

    Octavian

    2015-01-01

    Beberapa tahun terakhir, Bayesian Network telah menjadi konsep yang populer digunakan dalam berbagai bidang kehidupan seperti dalam pengambilan sebuah keputusan dan menentukan peluang suatu kejadian dapat terjadi. Sayangnya, pengkonstruksian struktur dari Bayesian Network itu sendiri bukanlah hal yang sederhana. Oleh sebab itu, penelitian ini mencoba memperkenalkan algoritma Bayesian Association Rule Mining Network untuk memudahkan kita dalam mengkonstruksi Bayesian Network berdasarkan data ...

  12. Dynamic Bayesian Networks in Classification-and-Ranking Architecture of Response Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mustapha

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The first component in classification-and-ranking architecture is a Bayesian classifier that classifies user utterances into response classes based on their semantic and pragmatic interpretations. Bayesian networks are sufficient if data is limited to single user input utterance. However, if the classifier is able to collate features from a sequence of previous n-1 user utterances, the additional information may or may not improve the accuracy rate in response classification. Approach: This article investigates the use of dynamic Bayesian networks to include time-series information in the form of extended features from preceding utterances. The experiment was conducted on SCHISMA corpus, which is a mixed-initiative, transaction dialogue in theater reservation. Results: The results show that classification accuracy is improved, but rather insignificantly. The accuracy rate tends to deteriorate as time-span of dialogue is increased. Conclusion: Although every response utterance reflects form and behavior that are expected by the preceding utterance, influence of meaning and intentions diminishes throughout time as the conversation stretches to longer duration.

  13. Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

  14. A Non-Homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network with Sequentially Coupled Interaction Parameters for Applications in Systems and Synthetic Biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional homog

  15. A Non-Homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network with Sequentially Coupled Interaction Parameters for Applications in Systems and Synthetic Biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional

  16. The Max-Min High-Order Dynamic Bayesian Network for Learning Gene Regulatory Networks with Time-Delayed Regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yifeng; Chen, Haifen; Zheng, Jie; Ngom, Alioune

    2016-01-01

    Accurately reconstructing gene regulatory network (GRN) from gene expression data is a challenging task in systems biology. Although some progresses have been made, the performance of GRN reconstruction still has much room for improvement. Because many regulatory events are asynchronous, learning gene interactions with multiple time delays is an effective way to improve the accuracy of GRN reconstruction. Here, we propose a new approach, called Max-Min high-order dynamic Bayesian network (MMHO-DBN) by extending the Max-Min hill-climbing Bayesian network technique originally devised for learning a Bayesian network's structure from static data. Our MMHO-DBN can explicitly model the time lags between regulators and targets in an efficient manner. It first uses constraint-based ideas to limit the space of potential structures, and then applies search-and-score ideas to search for an optimal HO-DBN structure. The performance of MMHO-DBN to GRN reconstruction was evaluated using both synthetic and real gene expression time-series data. Results show that MMHO-DBN is more accurate than current time-delayed GRN learning methods, and has an intermediate computing performance. Furthermore, it is able to learn long time-delayed relationships between genes. We applied sensitivity analysis on our model to study the performance variation along different parameter settings. The result provides hints on the setting of parameters of MMHO-DBN.

  17. Research on the self-defence electronic jamming decision-making based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tang Zheng; Gao Xiaoguang

    2008-01-01

    The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given.After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming,a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established.Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on.The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant.In this way,various features at the same time,as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually;in addition,the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly.

  18. A novel approach for pilot error detection using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saada, Mohamad; Meng, Qinggang; Huang, Tingwen

    2014-06-01

    In the last decade Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) have become one type of the most attractive probabilistic modelling framework extensions of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for working under uncertainties from a temporal perspective. Despite this popularity not many researchers have attempted to study the use of these networks in anomaly detection or the implications of data anomalies on the outcome of such models. An abnormal change in the modelled environment's data at a given time, will cause a trailing chain effect on data of all related environment variables in current and consecutive time slices. Albeit this effect fades with time, it still can have an ill effect on the outcome of such models. In this paper we propose an algorithm for pilot error detection, using DBNs as the modelling framework for learning and detecting anomalous data. We base our experiments on the actions of an aircraft pilot, and a flight simulator is created for running the experiments. The proposed anomaly detection algorithm has achieved good results in detecting pilot errors and effects on the whole system.

  19. Comparison of dynamic Bayesian network approaches for online diagnosis of aircraft system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于劲松; 冯威; 唐荻音; 刘浩

    2016-01-01

    The online diagnosis for aircraft system has always been a difficult problem. This is due to time evolution of system change, uncertainty of sensor measurements, and real-time requirement of diagnostic inference. To address this problem, two dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) approaches are proposed. One approach prunes the DBN of system, and then uses particle filter (PF) for this pruned DBN (PDBN) to perform online diagnosis. The problem is that estimates from a PF tend to have high variance for small sample sets. Using large sample sets is computationally expensive. The other approach compiles the PDBN into a dynamic arithmetic circuit (DAC) using an offline procedure that is applied only once, and then uses this circuit to provide online diagnosis recursively. This approach leads to the most computational consumption in the offline procedure. The experimental results show that the DAC, compared with the PF for PDBN, not only provides more reliable online diagnosis, but also offers much faster inference.

  20. Scalable Bayesian modeling, monitoring and analysis of dynamic network flow data

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Traffic flow count data in networks arise in many applications, such as automobile or aviation transportation, certain directed social network contexts, and Internet studies. Using an example of Internet browser traffic flow through site-segments of an international news website, we present Bayesian analyses of two linked classes of models which, in tandem, allow fast, scalable and interpretable Bayesian inference. We first develop flexible state-space models for streaming count data, able to...

  1. Probabilistic Inferences in Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Jianguo

    2010-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the popular inferences methods in Bayesian networks. The results demonstrates that the evidence can propagated across the Bayesian networks by any links, whatever it is forward or backward or intercausal style. The belief updating of Bayesian networks can be obtained by various available inference techniques. Theoretically, exact inferences in Bayesian networks is feasible and manageable. However, the computing and inference is NP-hard. That means, in applications, in ...

  2. Mocapy++ - A toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamelryck Thomas

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs. It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations. Results The program package is freely available under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL from SourceForge http://sourceforge.net/projects/mocapy. The package contains the source for building the Mocapy++ library, several usage examples and the user manual. Conclusions Mocapy++ is especially suitable for constructing probabilistic models of biomolecular structure, due to its support for directional statistics. In particular, it supports the Kent distribution on the sphere and the bivariate von Mises distribution on the torus. These distributions have proven useful to formulate probabilistic models of protein and RNA structure in atomic detail.

  3. Ranking Features on Psychological Dynamics of Cooperative Team Work through Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Fuster-Parra

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to rank some features that characterize the psychological dynamics of cooperative team work in order to determine priorities for interventions and formation: leading positive feedback, cooperative manager and collaborative manager features. From a dataset of 20 cooperative sport teams (403 soccer players, the characteristics of the prototypical sports teams are studied using an average Bayesian network (BN and two special types of BNs, the Bayesian classifiers: naive Bayes (NB and tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN. BNs are selected as they are able to produce probability estimates rather than predictions. BN results show that the antecessors (the “top” features ranked are the team members’ expectations and their attraction to the social aspects of the task. The main node is formed by the cooperative behaviors, the consequences ranked at the BN bottom (ratified by the TAN trees and the instantiations made, the roles assigned to the members and their survival inside the same team. These results should help managers to determine contents and priorities when they have to face team-building actions.

  4. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of the Interplay between EGFR and Hedgehog Signaling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Fröhlich

    Full Text Available Aberrant activation of sonic Hegdehog (SHH signaling has been found to disrupt cellular differentiation in many human cancers and to increase proliferation. The SHH pathway is known to cross-talk with EGFR dependent signaling. Recent studies experimentally addressed this interplay in Daoy cells, which are presumable a model system for medulloblastoma, a highly malignant brain tumor that predominately occurs in children. Currently ongoing are several clinical trials for different solid cancers, which are designed to validate the clinical benefits of targeting the SHH in combination with other pathways. This has motivated us to investigate interactions between EGFR and SHH dependent signaling in greater depth. To our knowledge, there is no mathematical model describing the interplay between EGFR and SHH dependent signaling in medulloblastoma so far. Here we come up with a fully probabilistic approach using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs. To build our model, we made use of literature based knowledge describing SHH and EGFR signaling and integrated gene expression (Illumina and cellular location dependent time series protein expression data (Reverse Phase Protein Arrays. We validated our model by sub-sampling training data and making Bayesian predictions on the left out test data. Our predictions focusing on key transcription factors and p70S6K, showed a high level of concordance with experimental data. Furthermore, the stability of our model was tested by a parametric bootstrap approach. Stable network features were in agreement with published data. Altogether we believe that our model improved our understanding of the interplay between two highly oncogenic signaling pathways in Daoy cells. This may open new perspectives for the future therapy of Hedghog/EGF-dependent solid tumors.

  5. Improved inference of gene regulatory networks through integrated Bayesian clustering and dynamic modeling of time-course expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Inferring gene regulatory networks from expression data is difficult, but it is common and often useful. Most network problems are under-determined--there are more parameters than data points--and therefore data or parameter set reduction is often necessary. Correlation between variables in the model also contributes to confound network coefficient inference. In this paper, we present an algorithm that uses integrated, probabilistic clustering to ease the problems of under-determination and correlated variables within a fully Bayesian framework. Specifically, ours is a dynamic Bayesian network with integrated Gaussian mixture clustering, which we fit using variational Bayesian methods. We show, using public, simulated time-course data sets from the DREAM4 Challenge, that our algorithm outperforms non-clustering methods in many cases (7 out of 25) with fewer samples, rarely underperforming (1 out of 25), and often selects a non-clustering model if it better describes the data. Source code (GNU Octave) for BAyesian Clustering Over Networks (BACON) and sample data are available at: http://code.google.com/p/bacon-for-genetic-networks.

  6. Gene regulatory network inference and validation using relative change ratio analysis and time-delayed dynamic Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Gong, Ping; Li, Haoni; Perkins, Edward J; Wang, Nan; Zhang, Chaoyang

    2014-12-01

    The Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) project was initiated in 2006 as a community-wide effort for the development of network inference challenges for rigorous assessment of reverse engineering methods for biological networks. We participated in the in silico network inference challenge of DREAM3 in 2008. Here we report the details of our approach and its performance on the synthetic challenge datasets. In our methodology, we first developed a model called relative change ratio (RCR), which took advantage of the heterozygous knockdown data and null-mutant knockout data provided by the challenge, in order to identify the potential regulators for the genes. With this information, a time-delayed dynamic Bayesian network (TDBN) approach was then used to infer gene regulatory networks from time series trajectory datasets. Our approach considerably reduced the searching space of TDBN; hence, it gained a much higher efficiency and accuracy. The networks predicted using our approach were evaluated comparatively along with 29 other submissions by two metrics (area under the ROC curve and area under the precision-recall curve). The overall performance of our approach ranked the second among all participating teams.

  7. A hybrid dynamic Bayesian network approach for modelling temporal associations of gene expressions for hypertension diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akutekwe, Arinze; Seker, Huseyin

    2014-01-01

    Computational and machine learning techniques have been applied in identifying biomarkers and constructing predictive models for diagnosis of hypertension. Strategies such as improved classification rules based on decision trees have been proposed. Other techniques such as Fuzzy Expert Systems (FES) and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems (NFS) have recently been applied. However, these methods lack the ability to detect temporal relationships among biomarker genes that will aid better understanding of the mechanism of hypertension disease. In this paper we apply a proposed two-stage bio-network construction approach that combines the power and computational efficiency of classification methods with the well-established predictive ability of Dynamic Bayesian Network. We demonstrate our method using the analysis of male young-onset hypertension microarray dataset. Four key genes were identified by the Least Angle Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and three Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination (SVM-RFE) methods. Results show that cell regulation FOXQ1 may inhibit the expression of focusyltransferase-6 (FUT6) and that ABCG1 ATP-binding cassette sub-family G may also play inhibitory role against NR2E3 nuclear receptor sub-family 2 and CGB2 Chromatin Gonadotrophin.

  8. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Audio-Visual Tibetan Speech Recognition Based on a Deep Dynamic Bayesian Network for Natural Human Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhao

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Audio‐visual speech recognition is a natural and robust approach to improving human-robot interaction in noisy environments. Although multi‐stream Dynamic Bayesian Network and coupled HMM are widely used for audio‐visual speech recognition, they fail to learn the shared features between modalities and ignore the dependency of features among the frames within each discrete state. In this paper, we propose a Deep Dynamic Bayesian Network (DDBN to perform unsupervised extraction of spatial‐temporal multimodal features from Tibetan audio‐visual speech data and build an accurate audio‐visual speech recognition model under a no frame‐independency assumption. The experiment results on Tibetan speech data from some real‐world environments showed the proposed DDBN outperforms the state‐of‐art methods in word recognition accuracy.

  10. 3D mapping of buried underworld infrastructure using dynamic Bayesian network based multi-sensory image data fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Ritaban; Cohn, Anthony G.; Muggleton, Jen M.

    2013-05-01

    The successful operation of buried infrastructure within urban environments is fundamental to the conservation of modern living standards. In this paper a novel multi-sensor image fusion framework has been proposed and investigated using dynamic Bayesian network for automatic detection of buried underworld infrastructure. Experimental multi-sensors images were acquired for a known buried plastic water pipe using Vibro-acoustic sensor based location methods and Ground Penetrating Radar imaging system. Computationally intelligent conventional image processing techniques were used to process three types of sensory images. Independently extracted depth and location information from different images regarding the target pipe were fused together using dynamic Bayesian network to predict the maximum probable location and depth of the pipe. The outcome from this study was very encouraging as it was able to detect the target pipe with high accuracy compared with the currently existing pipe survey map. The approach was also applied successfully to produce a best probable 3D buried asset map.

  11. Dynamic Bayesian Network for Accurate Detection of Peptides from Tandem Mass Spectra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halloran, John T; Bilmes, Jeff A; Noble, William S

    2016-08-05

    A central problem in mass spectrometry analysis involves identifying, for each observed tandem mass spectrum, the corresponding generating peptide. We present a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) toolkit that addresses this problem by using a machine learning approach. At the heart of this toolkit is a DBN for Rapid Identification (DRIP), which can be trained from collections of high-confidence peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs). DRIP's score function considers fragment ion matches using Gaussians rather than fixed fragment-ion tolerances and also finds the optimal alignment between the theoretical and observed spectrum by considering all possible alignments, up to a threshold that is controlled using a beam-pruning algorithm. This function not only yields state-of-the art database search accuracy but also can be used to generate features that significantly boost the performance of the Percolator postprocessor. The DRIP software is built upon a general purpose DBN toolkit (GMTK), thereby allowing a wide variety of options for user-specific inference tasks as well as facilitating easy modifications to the DRIP model in future work. DRIP is implemented in Python and C++ and is available under Apache license at http://melodi-lab.github.io/dripToolkit .

  12. Early detection of sepsis in the emergency department using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nachimuthu, Senthil K; Haug, Peter J

    2012-01-01

    Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory state due to an infection, and is associated with very high mortality and morbidity. Early diagnosis and prompt antibiotic and supportive therapy is associated with improved outcomes. Our objective was to detect the presence of sepsis soon after the patient visits the emergency department. We used Dynamic Bayesian Networks, a temporal probabilistic technique to model a system whose state changes over time. We built, trained and tested the model using data of 3,100 patients admitted to the emergency department, and measured the accuracy of detecting sepsis using data collected within the first 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours and 24 hours after admission. The area under the curve was 0.911, 0.915, 0.937 and 0.944 respectively. We describe the data, data preparation techniques, model, results, various statistical measures and the limitations of our experiments. We also briefly discuss techniques to improve accuracy, and the generalizability of our methods to other diseases.

  13. Novel dynamic Bayesian networks for facial action element recognition and understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Park, Jeong-Seon; Choi, Dong-You; Lee, Sang-Woong

    2011-12-01

    In daily life, language is an important tool of communication between people. Besides language, facial action can also provide a great amount of information. Therefore, facial action recognition has become a popular research topic in the field of human-computer interaction (HCI). However, facial action recognition is quite a challenging task due to its complexity. In a literal sense, there are thousands of facial muscular movements, many of which have very subtle differences. Moreover, muscular movements always occur simultaneously when the pose is changed. To address this problem, we first build a fully automatic facial points detection system based on a local Gabor filter bank and principal component analysis. Then, novel dynamic Bayesian networks are proposed to perform facial action recognition using the junction tree algorithm over a limited number of feature points. In order to evaluate the proposed method, we have used the Korean face database for model training. For testing, we used the CUbiC FacePix, facial expressions and emotion database, Japanese female facial expression database, and our own database. Our experimental results clearly demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

  14. A non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian network with sequentially coupled interaction parameters for applications in systems and synthetic biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-07-12

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional homogeneous DBNs fail to model the non-stationarity and time-varying nature of the gene regulatory processes. Various authors have therefore recently proposed combining DBNs with multiple changepoint processes to obtain time varying dynamic Bayesian networks (TV-DBNs). However, TV-DBNs are not without problems. Gene expression time series are typically short, which leaves the model over-flexible, leading to over-fitting or inflated inference uncertainty. In the present paper, we introduce a Bayesian regularization scheme that addresses this difficulty. Our approach is based on the rationale that changes in gene regulatory processes appear gradually during an organism's life cycle or in response to a changing environment, and we have integrated this notion in the prior distribution of the TV-DBN parameters. We have extensively tested our regularized TV-DBN model on synthetic data, in which we have simulated short non-homogeneous time series produced from a system subject to gradual change. We have then applied our method to real-world gene expression time series, measured during the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster, under artificially generated constant light condition in Arabidopsis thaliana, and from a synthetically designed strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae exposed to a changing environment.

  15. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Austin, R. Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. Aim: The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. Materials and Methods: This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. Results: The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Conclusion: Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches. PMID:28163973

  16. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  17. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  18. An introduction to Gaussian Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco

    2010-01-01

    The extraction of regulatory networks and pathways from postgenomic data is important for drug -discovery and development, as the extracted pathways reveal how genes or proteins regulate each other. Following up on the seminal paper of Friedman et al. (J Comput Biol 7:601-620, 2000), Bayesian networks have been widely applied as a popular tool to this end in systems biology research. Their popularity stems from the tractability of the marginal likelihood of the network structure, which is a consistent scoring scheme in the Bayesian context. This score is based on an integration over the entire parameter space, for which highly expensive computational procedures have to be applied when using more complex -models based on differential equations; for example, see (Bioinformatics 24:833-839, 2008). This chapter gives an introduction to reverse engineering regulatory networks and pathways with Gaussian Bayesian networks, that is Bayesian networks with the probabilistic BGe scoring metric [see (Geiger and Heckerman 235-243, 1995)]. In the BGe model, the data are assumed to stem from a Gaussian distribution and a normal-Wishart prior is assigned to the unknown parameters. Gaussian Bayesian network methodology for analysing static observational, static interventional as well as dynamic (observational) time series data will be described in detail in this chapter. Finally, we apply these Bayesian network inference methods (1) to observational and interventional flow cytometry (protein) data from the well-known RAF pathway to evaluate the global network reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian network inference and (2) to dynamic gene expression time series data of nine circadian genes in Arabidopsis thaliana to reverse engineer the unknown regulatory network topology for this domain.

  19. Pilot study of dynamic Bayesian networks approach for fault diagnostics and accident progression prediction in HTR-PM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Yunfei; Tong, Jiejuan; Zhang, Liguo, E-mail: lgzhang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Qin

    2015-09-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic Bayesian network is used to diagnose and predict accident progress in HTR-PM. • Dynamic Bayesian network model of HTR-PM is built based on detailed system analysis. • LOCA Simulations validate the above model even if part monitors are lost or false. - Abstract: The first high-temperature-reactor pebble-bed demonstration module (HTR-PM) is under construction currently in China. At the same time, development of a system that is used to support nuclear emergency response is in progress. The supporting system is expected to complete two tasks. The first one is diagnostics of the fault in the reactor based on abnormal sensor measurements obtained. The second one is prognostic of the accident progression based on sensor measurements obtained and operator actions. Both tasks will provide valuable guidance for emergency staff to take appropriate protective actions. Traditional method for the two tasks relies heavily on expert judgment, and has been proven to be inappropriate in some cases, such as Three Mile Island accident. To better perform the two tasks, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) is introduced in this paper and a pilot study based on the approach is carried out. DBN is advantageous in representing complex dynamic systems and taking full consideration of evidences obtained to perform diagnostics and prognostics. Pearl's loopy belief propagation (LBP) algorithm is recommended for diagnostics and prognostics in DBN. The DBN model of HTR-PM is created based on detailed system analysis and accident progression analysis. A small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) is selected to illustrate the application of the DBN model of HTR-PM in fault diagnostics (FD) and accident progression prognostics (APP). Several advantages of DBN approach compared with other techniques are discussed. The pilot study lays the foundation for developing the nuclear emergency response supporting system (NERSS) for HTR-PM.

  20. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  1. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  2. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian

    2012-03-01

    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  3. Team performance and collective efficacy in the dynamic psychology of competitive team: a Bayesian network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster-Parra, P; García-Mas, A; Ponseti, F J; Leo, F M

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this paper was to discover the relationships among 22 relevant psychological features in semi-professional football players in order to study team's performance and collective efficacy via a Bayesian network (BN). The paper includes optimization of team's performance and collective efficacy using intercausal reasoning pattern which constitutes a very common pattern in human reasoning. The BN is used to make inferences regarding our problem, and therefore we obtain some conclusions; among them: maximizing the team's performance causes a decrease in collective efficacy and when team's performance achieves the minimum value it causes an increase in moderate/high values of collective efficacy. Similarly, we may reason optimizing team collective efficacy instead. It also allows us to determine the features that have the strongest influence on performance and which on collective efficacy. From the BN two different coaching styles were differentiated taking into account the local Markov property: training leadership and autocratic leadership. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Dynamic Batch Bayesian Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Azimi, Javad; Fern, Xiaoli

    2011-01-01

    Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms try to optimize an unknown function that is expensive to evaluate using minimum number of evaluations/experiments. Most of the proposed algorithms in BO are sequential, where only one experiment is selected at each iteration. This method can be time inefficient when each experiment takes a long time and more than one experiment can be ran concurrently. On the other hand, requesting a fix-sized batch of experiments at each iteration causes performance inefficiency in BO compared to the sequential policies. In this paper, we present an algorithm that asks a batch of experiments at each time step t where the batch size p_t is dynamically determined in each step. Our algorithm is based on the observation that the sequence of experiments selected by the sequential policy can sometimes be almost independent from each other. Our algorithm identifies such scenarios and request those experiments at the same time without degrading the performance. We evaluate our proposed method us...

  5. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    Object oriented Bayesian networks have proven themselves useful in recent years. The idea of applying an object oriented approach to Bayesian networks has extended their scope to larger domains that can be divided into autonomous but interrelated entities. Object oriented Bayesian networks have b...

  6. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision sup

  7. Linking structural equation modeling with Bayesian network and its application to coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiao-fu; Sun, Jian; Nie, Hong-tao; Yuan, De-kui; Tao, Jian-hua

    2016-10-01

    Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model's accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay.

  8. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  9. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  10. Dynamic traffic splitting to parallel wireless networks with partial information: a Bayesian approach.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhulai, S.; Hoekstra, G.J.; Bosman, J.W.; Mei, R.D. van der

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary wireless networks are based on a wide range of different technologies providing overlapping coverage. This offers users a seamless integration of connectivity by allowing to switch between networks, and opens up a promising area for boosting the performance of wireless networks. Motivat

  11. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  12. Anomaly Detection and Attribution Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    UNCLASSIFIED Anomaly Detection and Attribution Using Bayesian Networks Andrew Kirk, Jonathan Legg and Edwin El-Mahassni National Security and...detection in Bayesian networks , en- abling both the detection and explanation of anomalous cases in a dataset. By exploiting the structure of a... Bayesian network , our algorithm is able to efficiently search for local maxima of data conflict between closely related vari- ables. Benchmark tests using

  13. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...... for complex networks can be derived and point out relevant literature....

  14. Seeded Bayesian Networks: Constructing genetic networks from microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quackenbush John

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays and other genomics-inspired technologies provide large datasets that often include hidden patterns of correlation between genes reflecting the complex processes that underlie cellular metabolism and physiology. The challenge in analyzing large-scale expression data has been to extract biologically meaningful inferences regarding these processes – often represented as networks – in an environment where the datasets are often imperfect and biological noise can obscure the actual signal. Although many techniques have been developed in an attempt to address these issues, to date their ability to extract meaningful and predictive network relationships has been limited. Here we describe a method that draws on prior information about gene-gene interactions to infer biologically relevant pathways from microarray data. Our approach consists of using preliminary networks derived from the literature and/or protein-protein interaction data as seeds for a Bayesian network analysis of microarray results. Results Through a bootstrap analysis of gene expression data derived from a number of leukemia studies, we demonstrate that seeded Bayesian Networks have the ability to identify high-confidence gene-gene interactions which can then be validated by comparison to other sources of pathway data. Conclusion The use of network seeds greatly improves the ability of Bayesian Network analysis to learn gene interaction networks from gene expression data. We demonstrate that the use of seeds derived from the biomedical literature or high-throughput protein-protein interaction data, or the combination, provides improvement over a standard Bayesian Network analysis, allowing networks involving dynamic processes to be deduced from the static snapshots of biological systems that represent the most common source of microarray data. Software implementing these methods has been included in the widely used TM4 microarray analysis package.

  15. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  16. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  17. Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P. Zajdel; B.J.A. Kröse

    2002-01-01

    For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a produ

  18. 基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估%Threat Assessment for Space Battlefield Targets Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周立新; 李智

    2011-01-01

    空间战场目标威胁评估对未来空间作战指挥决策具有重要的意义,探讨了空间战场的特点及空间战场威胁目标的特点.针对静态贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)无法有效地解决动态空间战场中目标的威胁评估问题,提出利用动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic Bayesian network,DBN)来解决空间战场目标威胁评估,建立了基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型,利用所建立的模型进行了仿真计算.研究结果证明,基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型能够适应战场形势的变化,可应用于未来空间战场目标威胁评估专家系统的开发,并且比利用静态BN得出的威胁程度更准确,可靠性更高.%Threat assessment of space battlefield targets has great meaning for command and decision-making in the future space operation. The paper discusses the characteristics of space battlefield and space threat targets. Aiming at the problem of threat assessment that is not well solved by Bayes-ian network (BN) in the dynamic space battlefield, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) theory is introduced. After that, a DBN-based threat assessment model for space operation is constructed; then, the paper performs a simulation using the proposed model. The simulation result shows that the DBN-based threat assessment model is adaptive to the dynamic change in the battlefield; it can be used in the process of developing the expert system in the future space operation. What is more, the DBN-- based threat assessment model is more effective and reliable to reflect the real threat level than the Bayesian network model.

  19. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  20. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  1. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  2. Bayesian Inference in Queueing Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sutton, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Modern Web services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such services are modeled by networks of queues, where one queue models each of the individual computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data is incomplete, because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times. With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over missing data and model...

  3. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on the data format. For example, the EM (Expectation-Maximisation) algorithm (Stuart & Norvig, 2003) may be used to estimate the probabilities of a BN if empirical data are available. Many knowledge engineering techniques exist to elicit and translate...-Verlag, New York (NY). [9] Korb KB & Nicholson AE, 2004, Bayesian artificial intelligence, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (FL). [10] Murphy KP, 2002, Dynamic Bayesian networks: Representation, inference and leaning, PhD disser- tation, University...

  4. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  5. Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänninen, Maria

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making.

  6. Domino effect analysis using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

    2013-02-01

    A new methodology is introduced based on Bayesian network both to model domino effect propagation patterns and to estimate the domino effect probability at different levels. The flexible structure and the unique modeling techniques offered by Bayesian network make it possible to analyze domino effects through a probabilistic framework, considering synergistic effects, noisy probabilities, and common cause failures. Further, the uncertainties and the complex interactions among the domino effect components are captured using Bayesian network. The probabilities of events are updated in the light of new information, and the most probable path of the domino effect is determined on the basis of the new data gathered. This study shows how probability updating helps to update the domino effect model either qualitatively or quantitatively. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical example and also to an earlier-studied case study. These examples accentuate the effectiveness of Bayesian network in modeling domino effects in processing facility. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. The Diagnosis of Reciprocating Machinery by Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A Bayesian Network is a reasoning tool based on probability theory and has many advantages that other reasoning tools do not have. This paper discusses the basic theory of Bayesian networks and studies the problems in constructing Bayesian networks. The paper also constructs a Bayesian diagnosis network of a reciprocating compressor. The example helps us to draw a conclusion that Bayesian diagnosis networks can diagnose reciprocating machinery effectively.

  8. Fuzzy Functional Dependencies and Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU WeiYi(刘惟一); SONG Ning(宋宁)

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian networks have become a popular technique for representing and reasoning with probabilistic information. The fuzzy functional dependency is an important kind of data dependencies in relational databases with fuzzy values. The purpose of this paper is to set up a connection between these data dependencies and Bayesian networks. The connection is done through a set of methods that enable people to obtain the most information of independent conditions from fuzzy functional dependencies.

  9. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  10. Automatic Thesaurus Construction Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young C.; Choi, Key-Sun

    1996-01-01

    Discusses automatic thesaurus construction and characterizes the statistical behavior of terms by using an inference network. Highlights include low-frequency terms and data sparseness, Bayesian networks, collocation maps and term similarity, constructing a thesaurus from a collocation map, and experiments with test collections. (Author/LRW)

  11. Diagnosis of Subtraction Bugs Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jihyun; Corter, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Diagnosis of misconceptions or "bugs" in procedural skills is difficult because of their unstable nature. This study addresses this problem by proposing and evaluating a probability-based approach to the diagnosis of bugs in children's multicolumn subtraction performance using Bayesian networks. This approach assumes a causal network relating…

  12. Bayesian Networks: Aspects of Approximate Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    A Bayesian network can be used to model consisely the probabilistic knowledge with respect to a given problem domain. Such a network consists of an acyclic directed graph in which the nodes represent stochastic variables, supplemented with probabilities indicating the strength of the influences betw

  13. Communication cost in Distributed Bayesian Belief Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gosliga, S.P. van; Maris, M.G.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, two different methods for information fusionare compared with respect to communication cost. These are the lambda-pi and the junction tree approach as the probability computing methods in Bayesian networks. The analysis is done within the scope of large distributed networks of computi

  14. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...... efficiently combines distributed learner models without the need to exchange internal structure of local Bayesian networks, nor local evidence between the involved platforms....

  15. Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H.; Perls, Thomas T.; Sebastiani, Paola

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.

  16. Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H; Perls, Thomas T; Sebastiani, Paola

    2016-05-05

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.

  17. Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied.

  18. Real-time reliability evaluation methodology based on dynamic Bayesian networks: A case study of a subsea pipe ram BOP system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Ma, Yunpeng; Liu, Zengkai; Zhou, Yuming; Sun, Junhe

    2015-09-01

    A novel real-time reliability evaluation methodology is proposed by combining root cause diagnosis phase based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and reliability evaluation phase based on dynamic BNs (DBNs). The root cause diagnosis phase exactly locates the root cause of a complex mechatronic system failure in real time to increase diagnostic coverage and is performed through backward analysis of BNs. The reliability evaluation phase calculates the real-time reliability of the entire system by forward inference of DBNs. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case of a subsea pipe ram blowout preventer system. The value and the variation trend of real-time system reliability when the faults of components occur are studied; the importance degree sequence of components at different times is also determined using mutual information and belief variance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. From arguments to constraints on a Bayesian network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bex, F.J.; Renooij, S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a way to derive constraints for a Bayesian Network from structured arguments. Argumentation and Bayesian networks can both be considered decision support techniques, but are typically used by experts with different backgrounds. Bayesian network experts have the mathematical

  20. On local optima in learning bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...

  1. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  2. Face detection by aggregated Bayesian network classifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pham, T.V.; Worring, M.; Smeulders, A.W.M.

    2002-01-01

    A face detection system is presented. A new classification method using forest-structured Bayesian networks is used. The method is used in an aggregated classifier to discriminate face from non-face patterns. The process of generating non-face patterns is integrated with the construction of the aggr

  3. Most frugal explanations in Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwisthout, J.H.P.

    2015-01-01

    Inferring the most probable explanation to a set of variables, given a partial observation of the remaining variables, is one of the canonical computational problems in Bayesian networks, with widespread applications in AI and beyond. This problem, known as MAP, is computationally intractable (NP-ha

  4. Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. de Zoete; M. Sjerps; D. Lagnado; N. Fenton

    2015-01-01

    When two or more crimes show specific similarities, such as a very distinct modus operandi, the probability that they were committed by the same offender becomes of interest. This probability depends on the degree of similarity and distinctiveness. We show how Bayesian networks can be used to model

  5. Possible novel roles of poly(rC)-binding protein 1 in SH-SY5Y neurocytes: an analysis using a dynamic Bayesian network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-Rong Huo; Jian-Tao Liang; Jun-Hua Zou; Lan-Ying Wang; Qi Li; Xiao-MinWang

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] Poly(rC)-binding protein 1 (PCBP1) belongs to the heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein family and participates in transcriptional and translational regulation.Previous work has identified transcripts targeted by both knockdown and overexpression of PCBP1 in SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells using a microarray or ProteomeLabTM protein fractionation 2-dimensions (PF-2D) and quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometer.The present study aimed to further determine whether these altered transcripts from major pathways (such as Wnt signaling,TGF-β signaling,cell cycling,and apoptosis) and two other genes,H2AFX and H2BFS (screened by PF-2D),have spatial relationships.[Methods] The genes were studied by qRT-PCR,and dynamic Bayesian network analysis was used to rebuild the coordination network of these transcripts.[Results] PCBP1 controlled the expression or activity of the seven transcripts.Moreover,PCBP1 indirectly regulated MAP2K2,FOS,FST,TP53 and WNT7B through H2AFX or regulated these genes through SAT.In contrast,TP53 and WNT7B are regulated by other genes.[Conclusion]The seven transcripts and PCBP1 are closely associated in a spatial interaction network.

  6. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  7. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  8. BNFinder2: Faster Bayesian network learning and Bayesian classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dojer, Norbert; Bednarz, Pawel; Podsiadlo, Agnieszka; Wilczynski, Bartek

    2013-08-15

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are versatile probabilistic models applicable to many different biological phenomena. In biological applications the structure of the network is usually unknown and needs to be inferred from experimental data. BNFinder is a fast software implementation of an exact algorithm for finding the optimal structure of the network given a number of experimental observations. Its second version, presented in this article, represents a major improvement over the previous version. The improvements include (i) a parallelized learning algorithm leading to an order of magnitude speed-ups in BN structure learning time; (ii) inclusion of an additional scoring function based on mutual information criteria; (iii) possibility of choosing the resulting network specificity based on statistical criteria and (iv) a new module for classification by BNs, including cross-validation scheme and classifier quality measurements with receiver operator characteristic scores. BNFinder2 is implemented in python and freely available under the GNU general public license at the project Web site https://launchpad.net/bnfinder, together with a user's manual, introductory tutorial and supplementary methods.

  9. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  10. A bayesian belief network for reliability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Helminen, Atte

    2001-02-15

    The research programme at the Halden Project on software assessment is argumented through a joint project with VVT Automation. The objective of this co-operative project is to combine previous presented Bayesian Belief Networks for a software safety standard, with BBNs on the reliability estimation of software based digital systems. The results on applying BBN methodology with a software safety standard is based upon previous research by the Halden Project, while the results on the reliability estimation is based on a Master's Thesis by Helminen. The report should be considered as a progress report in the more long-term activity on the use of BBNs as support for safety assessment of programmable systems. In this report it is discussed how the two approaches can be merged together into one Bayesian Network, and the problems with merging are pinpointed. The report also presents and discusses the approaches applied by the Halden Project and VTT, including the differences in the expert judgement of the parameters used in the Bayesian Network. Finally, the report gives some experimental results based on observations from applying the method for an evaluation of a real, safety related programmable system that has been developed according to the avionic standard DO-178B. This demonstrates how hard and soft evidences can be combined for a reliability assessment. The use of Bayesian Networks provides a framework, combining consistent application of probability calculus with the ability to model complex structures, as e.g. standards, as a simple understandable network, where all possible evidence can be introduced to the reliability estimation in a compatible way. (Author)

  11. Integrative bayesian network analysis of genomic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Yang; Stingo, Francesco C; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

    2014-01-01

    Rapid development of genome-wide profiling technologies has made it possible to conduct integrative analysis on genomic data from multiple platforms. In this study, we develop a novel integrative Bayesian network approach to investigate the relationships between genetic and epigenetic alterations as well as how these mutations affect a patient's clinical outcome. We take a Bayesian network approach that admits a convenient decomposition of the joint distribution into local distributions. Exploiting the prior biological knowledge about regulatory mechanisms, we model each local distribution as linear regressions. This allows us to analyze multi-platform genome-wide data in a computationally efficient manner. We illustrate the performance of our approach through simulation studies. Our methods are motivated by and applied to a multi-platform glioblastoma dataset, from which we reveal several biologically relevant relationships that have been validated in the literature as well as new genes that could potentially be novel biomarkers for cancer progression.

  12. Learning Bayesian networks using genetic algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Fei; Wang Xiufeng; Rao Yimei

    2007-01-01

    A new method to evaluate the fitness of the Bayesian networks according to the observed data is provided. The main advantage of this criterion is that it is suitable for both the complete and incomplete cases while the others not.Moreover it facilitates the computation greatly. In order to reduce the search space, the notation of equivalent class proposed by David Chickering is adopted. Instead of using the method directly, the novel criterion, variable ordering, and equivalent class are combined,moreover the proposed mthod avoids some problems caused by the previous one. Later, the genetic algorithm which allows global convergence, lack in the most of the methods searching for Bayesian network is applied to search for a good model in thisspace. To speed up the convergence, the genetic algorithm is combined with the greedy algorithm. Finally, the simulation shows the validity of the proposed approach.

  13. Bayesian belief networks in business continuity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, Frank; Matthijssen, Edwin; Attema, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Business continuity professionals aim to mitigate the various challenges to the continuity of their company. The goal is a coherent system of measures that encompass detection, prevention and recovery. Choices made in one part of the system affect other parts as well as the continuity risks of the company. In complex organisations, however, these relations are far from obvious. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks to expose these relations, and presents a modelling framework for this approach.

  14. Nuclear charge radii: Density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Utama, Raditya; Piekarewicz, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. We explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonst...

  15. Bayesian semiparametric dynamic Nelson-Siegel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Cakmakli

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes the Bayesian semiparametric dynamic Nelson-Siegel model where the density of the yield curve factors and thereby the density of the yields are estimated along with other model parameters. This is accomplished by modeling the error distributions of the factors according to a Diric

  16. Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.

  17. Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data Guy Van den Broeck∗ and Karthika Mohan∗ and Arthur Choi and Adnan...We propose a family of efficient algorithms for learning the parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. Our approach is based on recent...algorithms like EM (which require inference). 1 INTRODUCTION When learning the parameters of a Bayesian network from data with missing values, the

  18. Improved Sampling for Diagnostic Reasoning in Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hulme, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks offer great potential for use in automating large scale diagnostic reasoning tasks. Gibbs sampling is the main technique used to perform diagnostic reasoning in large richly interconnected Bayesian networks. Unfortunately Gibbs sampling can take an excessive time to generate a representative sample. In this paper we describe and test a number of heuristic strategies for improving sampling in noisy-or Bayesian networks. The strategies include Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling...

  19. Lower Bound Bayesian Networks - An Efficient Inference of Lower Bounds on Probability Distributions in Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can use any available algorithms and tools for Bayesian networks in order to represent and infer lower bounds. This new method yields results that are provable exact for trees with binary variables, and results which are competitive to existing approximations in credal networks for all other network structures. Our method is not limited to a specific kind of network structure. Basically, it is also not restricted to a specific kind of inference, but we restrict our analysis to prognostic inference in this article. The computational complexity is superior to that of other existing approaches.

  20. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... (domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  1. Inference of Gene Regulatory Network Based on Local Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fei; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Guo, Wei-Feng; Wei, Ze-Gang; Chen, Luonan

    2016-08-01

    The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from expression data can mine the direct regulations among genes and gain deep insights into biological processes at a network level. During past decades, numerous computational approaches have been introduced for inferring the GRNs. However, many of them still suffer from various problems, e.g., Bayesian network (BN) methods cannot handle large-scale networks due to their high computational complexity, while information theory-based methods cannot identify the directions of regulatory interactions and also suffer from false positive/negative problems. To overcome the limitations, in this work we present a novel algorithm, namely local Bayesian network (LBN), to infer GRNs from gene expression data by using the network decomposition strategy and false-positive edge elimination scheme. Specifically, LBN algorithm first uses conditional mutual information (CMI) to construct an initial network or GRN, which is decomposed into a number of local networks or GRNs. Then, BN method is employed to generate a series of local BNs by selecting the k-nearest neighbors of each gene as its candidate regulatory genes, which significantly reduces the exponential search space from all possible GRN structures. Integrating these local BNs forms a tentative network or GRN by performing CMI, which reduces redundant regulations in the GRN and thus alleviates the false positive problem. The final network or GRN can be obtained by iteratively performing CMI and local BN on the tentative network. In the iterative process, the false or redundant regulations are gradually removed. When tested on the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in E.coli, our results suggest that LBN outperforms other state-of-the-art methods (ARACNE, GENIE3 and NARROMI) significantly, with more accurate and robust performance. In particular, the decomposition strategy with local Bayesian networks not only effectively reduce

  2. A Bayesian Approach to Network Modularity

    CERN Document Server

    Hofman, Jake M

    2007-01-01

    We present an efficient, principled, and interpretable technique for inferring module assignments and identifying the optimal number of modules in a given network. We show how several existing methods for finding modules can be described as variant, special, or limiting cases of our work, and how related methods for complexity control -- identification of the true number of modules -- are outperformed. Our approach is based on Bayesian methods for model selection which have been used with success for almost a century, implemented using a variational technique developed only in the past decade. We apply the technique to synthetic and real networks, including networks of up to $10^4$ nodes, and outline how the method naturally allows model selection among generative models.

  3. Bayesian Network Based XP Process Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Abouelela

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian Network based mathematical model has been used for modelling Extreme Programmingsoftware development process. The model is capable of predicting the expected finish time and theexpected defect rate for each XP release. Therefore, it can be used to determine the success/failure of anyXP Project. The model takes into account the effect of three XP practices, namely: Pair Programming,Test Driven Development and Onsite Customer practices. The model’s predictions were validated againsttwo case studies. Results show the precision of our model especially in predicting the project finish time.

  4. A Review of Predictive Analytic Applications of Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hafiz Mohd Yusof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Malware can be defined as malicious software that infiltrates a network and computer host in a variety of ways, from software flaws to social engineering. Due to the polymorphic and stealth nature of malware attacks, a signature-based analysis that is done statically is no longer sufficient to solve such a problem. Therefore, a behavioral or anomalous analysis will provide a more dynamic approach for the solution. However recent studies have shown that current behavioral methods at the network-level have several issues such as the inability to predict zero-day attacks, high-level assumptions, non-inferential analysis and performance issues. Other than performance issues, this study has identified common scientific characteristics which are reduced parameter, θ and lack of priori information p(θ that causes the problems. Previous methods were proposed to address the problem however were still unable to resolve the stated scientific hitches. Due to the shortcomings, the Bayesian Network in terms of its probabilistic modelling would be the best method to deal with the stated scientific glitches which also have been proven in the area of Clinical Expert Systems, Artificial Intelligence and Pattern Recognition. This study will critically review the predictive analytic applications of Bayesian Network model in different research domain such as Clinical Expert Systems, Artificial Intelligence and Pattern Recognition and discover any potential approach available in the domain of Computer Networks. Based on the review, this paper has identified several Bayesian Network properties which have been used to overcome the abovementioned problems. Those properties will be applied in future studies to model the Behavioral Malware Predictive Analytics.

  5. Bayesian Network Enhanced with Structural Reliability Methods: Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Straub, Daniel; Der Kiureghian, Armen

    2012-01-01

    We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence structures, as present in infrastructure and structural systems, and they facilitate Bayesian updating of the model when new information becomes available. On the other hand, SR...

  6. Implementing Relevance Feedback in the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Campos, Luis M.; Fernandez-Luna, Juan M.; Huete, Juan F.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of relevance feedback in information retrieval focuses on a proposal for the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model. Bases the proposal on the propagation of partial evidences in the Bayesian network, representing new information obtained from the user's relevance judgments to compute the posterior relevance probabilities of the documents…

  7. Towards an inclusion driven learning of Bayesian Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castelo, R.; Kocka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Two or more Bayesian Networks are Markov equivalent when their corresponding acyclic digraphs encode the same set of conditional independence (= CI) restrictions. Therefore, the search space of Bayesian Networks may be organized in classes of equivalence, where each of them consists of a particular

  8. Bayesian Inference Networks and Spreading Activation in Hypertext Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoy, Jacques

    1992-01-01

    Describes a method based on Bayesian networks for searching hypertext systems. Discussion covers the use of Bayesian networks for structuring index terms and representing user information needs; use of link semantics based on constrained spreading activation to find starting points for browsing; and evaluation of a prototype system. (64…

  9. A Gaussian Mixed Model for Learning Discrete Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balov, Nikolay

    2011-02-01

    In this paper we address the problem of learning discrete Bayesian networks from noisy data. Considered is a graphical model based on mixture of Gaussian distributions with categorical mixing structure coming from a discrete Bayesian network. The network learning is formulated as a Maximum Likelihood estimation problem and performed by employing an EM algorithm. The proposed approach is relevant to a variety of statistical problems for which Bayesian network models are suitable - from simple regression analysis to learning gene/protein regulatory networks from microarray data.

  10. Fuzzy Naive Bayesian for constructing regulated network with weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xi Y; Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S

    2015-01-01

    In the data mining field, classification is a very crucial technology, and the Bayesian classifier has been one of the hotspots in classification research area. However, assumptions of Naive Bayesian and Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) are unfair to attribute relations. Therefore, this paper proposes a new algorithm named Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) using neural network with weighted membership function (NEWFM) to extract regulated relations and weights. Then, we can use regulated relations and weights to construct a regulated network. Finally, we will classify the heart and Haberman datasets by the FNB network to compare with experiments of Naive Bayesian and TAN. The experiment results show that the FNB has a higher classification rate than Naive Bayesian and TAN.

  11. Stochastic margin-based structure learning of Bayesian network classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael

    2013-02-01

    The margin criterion for parameter learning in graphical models gained significant impact over the last years. We use the maximum margin score for discriminatively optimizing the structure of Bayesian network classifiers. Furthermore, greedy hill-climbing and simulated annealing search heuristics are applied to determine the classifier structures. In the experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of maximum margin optimized Bayesian network structures in terms of classification performance compared to traditionally used discriminative structure learning methods. Stochastic simulated annealing requires less score evaluations than greedy heuristics. Additionally, we compare generative and discriminative parameter learning on both generatively and discriminatively structured Bayesian network classifiers. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve similar classification performance as support vector machines. Moreover, missing feature values during classification can be handled by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where purely discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  12. Application of Bayesian Network Learning Methods to Land Resource Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jiejun; HE Xiaorong; WAN Youchuan

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian network has a powerful ability for reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective way to deal with prediction, classification and clustering. Firstly, this paper presented an overview of Bayesian network and its characteristics, and discussed how to learn a Bayesian network structure from given data, and then constructed a Bayesian network model for land resource evaluation with expert knowledge and the dataset. The experimental results based on the test dataset are that evaluation accuracy is 87.5%, and Kappa index is 0.826. All these prove the method is feasible and efficient, and indicate that Bayesian network is a promising approach for land resource evaluation.

  13. Learning Bayesian Networks from Data by Particle Swarm Optimization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Learning Bayesian network is an NP-hard problem. When the number of variables is large, the process of searching optimal network structure could be very time consuming and tends to return a structure which is local optimal. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) was introduced to the problem of learning Bayesian networks and a novel structure learning algorithm using PSO was proposed. To search in directed acyclic graphs spaces efficiently, a discrete PSO algorithm especially for structure learning was proposed based on the characteristics of Bayesian networks. The results of experiments show that our PSO based algorithm is fast for convergence and can obtain better structures compared with genetic algorithm based algorithms.

  14. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liangdong; Wang, Limin

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  15. Logistic regression against a divergent Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Antonio Sánchez Trujillo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a discussion about two statistical tools used for prediction and causality assessment: logistic regression and Bayesian networks. Using data of a simulated example from a study assessing factors that might predict pulmonary emphysema (where fingertip pigmentation and smoking are considered; we posed the following questions. Is pigmentation a confounding, causal or predictive factor? Is there perhaps another factor, like smoking, that confounds? Is there a synergy between pigmentation and smoking? The results, in terms of prediction, are similar with the two techniques; regarding causation, differences arise. We conclude that, in decision-making, the sum of both: a statistical tool, used with common sense, and previous evidence, taking years or even centuries to develop; is better than the automatic and exclusive use of statistical resources.

  16. Learning Bayesian network structure with immune algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhiqiang Cai; Shubin Si; Shudong Sun; Hongyan Dui

    2015-01-01

    Finding out reasonable structures from bulky data is one of the difficulties in modeling of Bayesian network (BN), which is also necessary in promoting the application of BN. This pa-per proposes an immune algorithm based method (BN-IA) for the learning of the BN structure with the idea of vaccination. Further-more, the methods on how to extract the effective vaccines from local optimal structure and root nodes are also described in details. Final y, the simulation studies are implemented with the helicopter convertor BN model and the car start BN model. The comparison results show that the proposed vaccines and the BN-IA can learn the BN structure effectively and efficiently.

  17. Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Zoete, Jacob; Sjerps, Marjan; Lagnado, David; Fenton, Norman

    2015-05-01

    When two or more crimes show specific similarities, such as a very distinct modus operandi, the probability that they were committed by the same offender becomes of interest. This probability depends on the degree of similarity and distinctiveness. We show how Bayesian networks can be used to model different evidential structures that can occur when linking crimes, and how they assist in understanding the complex underlying dependencies. That is, how evidence that is obtained in one case can be used in another and vice versa. The flip side of this is that the intuitive decision to "unlink" a case in which exculpatory evidence is obtained leads to serious overestimation of the strength of the remaining cases.

  18. A Dynamic Bayesian Approach to Computational Laban Shape Quality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Swaminathan

    2009-01-01

    kinesiology. LMA (especially Effort/Shape emphasizes how internal feelings and intentions govern the patterning of movement throughout the whole body. As we argue, a complex understanding of intention via LMA is necessary for human-computer interaction to become embodied in ways that resemble interaction in the physical world. We thus introduce a novel, flexible Bayesian fusion approach for identifying LMA Shape qualities from raw motion capture data in real time. The method uses a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN to fuse movement features across the body and across time and as we discuss can be readily adapted for low-cost video. It has delivered excellent performance in preliminary studies comprising improvisatory movements. Our approach has been incorporated in Response, a mixed-reality environment where users interact via natural, full-body human movement and enhance their bodily-kinesthetic awareness through immersive sound and light feedback, with applications to kinesiology training, Parkinson's patient rehabilitation, interactive dance, and many other areas.

  19. Inference of Gene Regulatory Network Based on Local Bayesian Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs from expression data can mine the direct regulations among genes and gain deep insights into biological processes at a network level. During past decades, numerous computational approaches have been introduced for inferring the GRNs. However, many of them still suffer from various problems, e.g., Bayesian network (BN methods cannot handle large-scale networks due to their high computational complexity, while information theory-based methods cannot identify the directions of regulatory interactions and also suffer from false positive/negative problems. To overcome the limitations, in this work we present a novel algorithm, namely local Bayesian network (LBN, to infer GRNs from gene expression data by using the network decomposition strategy and false-positive edge elimination scheme. Specifically, LBN algorithm first uses conditional mutual information (CMI to construct an initial network or GRN, which is decomposed into a number of local networks or GRNs. Then, BN method is employed to generate a series of local BNs by selecting the k-nearest neighbors of each gene as its candidate regulatory genes, which significantly reduces the exponential search space from all possible GRN structures. Integrating these local BNs forms a tentative network or GRN by performing CMI, which reduces redundant regulations in the GRN and thus alleviates the false positive problem. The final network or GRN can be obtained by iteratively performing CMI and local BN on the tentative network. In the iterative process, the false or redundant regulations are gradually removed. When tested on the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in E.coli, our results suggest that LBN outperforms other state-of-the-art methods (ARACNE, GENIE3 and NARROMI significantly, with more accurate and robust performance. In particular, the decomposition strategy with local Bayesian networks not only

  20. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  1. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  2. Optimized Bayesian dynamic advising theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav

    2006-01-01

    Written by one of the world's leading groups in the area of Bayesian identification, control, and decision making, this book provides the theoretical and algorithmic basis of optimized probabilistic advising. Starting from abstract ideas and formulations, and culminating in detailed algorithms, the book comprises a unified treatment of an important problem of the design of advisory systems supporting supervisors of complex processes. It introduces the theoretical and algorithmic basis of developed advising, relying on novel and powerful combination black-box modelling by dynamic mixture models

  3. Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Riggelsen, C

    2008-01-01

    This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

  4. A continuous-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

    2006-01-01

    We present a continuous-time Bayesian network (CTBN) framework for dynamic systems reliability modeling and analysis. Dynamic systems exhibit complex behaviors and interactions between their components; where not only the combination of failure events matters, but so does the sequence ordering of th

  5. A continuous-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudali, H.; Dugan, J.B.

    2006-01-01

    We present a continuous-time Bayesian network (CTBN) framework for dynamic systems reliability modeling and analysis. Dynamic systems exhibit complex behaviors and interactions between their components; where not only the combination of failure events matters, but so does the sequence ordering of th

  6. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  7. Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knox, W. Bradley; Mengshoel, Ole

    2009-01-01

    Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

  8. Recognizing recurrent neural networks (rRNN): Bayesian inference for recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2012-07-01

    Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are widely used in computational neuroscience and machine learning applications. In an RNN, each neuron computes its output as a nonlinear function of its integrated input. While the importance of RNNs, especially as models of brain processing, is undisputed, it is also widely acknowledged that the computations in standard RNN models may be an over-simplification of what real neuronal networks compute. Here, we suggest that the RNN approach may be made computationally more powerful by its fusion with Bayesian inference techniques for nonlinear dynamical systems. In this scheme, we use an RNN as a generative model of dynamic input caused by the environment, e.g. of speech or kinematics. Given this generative RNN model, we derive Bayesian update equations that can decode its output. Critically, these updates define a 'recognizing RNN' (rRNN), in which neurons compute and exchange prediction and prediction error messages. The rRNN has several desirable features that a conventional RNN does not have, e.g. fast decoding of dynamic stimuli and robustness to initial conditions and noise. Furthermore, it implements a predictive coding scheme for dynamic inputs. We suggest that the Bayesian inversion of RNNs may be useful both as a model of brain function and as a machine learning tool. We illustrate the use of the rRNN by an application to the online decoding (i.e. recognition) of human kinematics.

  9. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale...

  10. Bayesian network approach to spatial data mining: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jiejun; Wan, Youchuan

    2006-10-01

    Spatial data mining is a process of discovering interesting, novel, and potentially useful information or knowledge hidden in spatial data sets. It involves different techniques and different methods from various areas of research. A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes causal probabilistic relationships among variables of interest, which has a powerful ability for representing and reasoning and provides an effective way to spatial data mining. In this paper we give an introduction to Bayesian networks, and discuss using Bayesian networks for spatial data mining. We propose a framework of spatial data mining based on Bayesian networks. Then we show a case study and use the experimental results to validate the practical viability of the proposed approach to spatial data mining. Finally, the paper gives a summary and some remarks.

  11. Designing Resource-Bounded Reasoners using Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this work we are concerned with the conceptual design of large-scale diagnostic and health management systems that use Bayesian networks. While they are...

  12. Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

  13. Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

    2016-11-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

  14. Using Consensus Bayesian Network to Model the Reactive Oxygen Species Regulatory Pathway

    OpenAIRE

    Liangdong Hu; Limin Wang

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks...

  15. Supporting scalable Bayesian networks using configurable discretizer actuators

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Osunmakinde, I

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian Networks using Configurable Discretizer Actuators Isaac Osunmakinde, SMIEEE and Antoine Bagula Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences, University of Cape Town, 18 University Avenue, Rhodes Gift, 7707 Rondebosch, Cape Town, South... and limited memory space may crash during these operations. This affects business and research deliveries, and may hinder the growing usage of Bayesian networks in industries that keep massive datasets to build intelligent systems. From our practical...

  16. BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR SUB-GROUPS OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    In this study, patients with multiple sclerosis "sub-groups" characteristics in relation to detection of a statistically (SPSS) and are provided in the Bayesian network. The main objective of this study, regarding the appearance of MRI lesions in patients with Multiple Sclerosis information and / or EDSS scores to investigate the possible attack of multiple sclerosis subgroups. Bayesian networks, reflects the level of sub-groups in multiple sclerosis patients. Analyzes were conducted...

  17. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  18. Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

    2013-11-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  19. HEURISTIC DISCRETIZATION METHOD FOR BAYESIAN NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana D.C. Lima

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian Network (BN is a classification technique widely used in Artificial Intelligence. Its structure is a Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG used to model the association of categorical variables. However, in cases where the variables are numerical, a previous discretization is necessary. Discretization methods are usually based on a statistical approach using the data distribution, such as division by quartiles. In this article we present a discretization using a heuristic that identifies events called peak and valley. Genetic Algorithm was used to identify these events having the minimization of the error between the estimated average for BN and the actual value of the numeric variable output as the objective function. The BN has been modeled from a database of Bit’s Rate of Penetration of the Brazilian pre-salt layer with 5 numerical variables and one categorical variable, using the proposed discretization and the division of the data by the quartiles. The results show that the proposed heuristic discretization has higher accuracy than the quartiles discretization.

  20. Multiple quantitative trait analysis using bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scutari, Marco; Howell, Phil; Balding, David J; Mackay, Ian

    2014-09-01

    Models for genome-wide prediction and association studies usually target a single phenotypic trait. However, in animal and plant genetics it is common to record information on multiple phenotypes for each individual that will be genotyped. Modeling traits individually disregards the fact that they are most likely associated due to pleiotropy and shared biological basis, thus providing only a partial, confounded view of genetic effects and phenotypic interactions. In this article we use data from a Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Cross (MAGIC) winter wheat population to explore Bayesian networks as a convenient and interpretable framework for the simultaneous modeling of multiple quantitative traits. We show that they are equivalent to multivariate genetic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and that they are competitive with single-trait elastic net and single-trait GBLUP in predictive performance. Finally, we discuss their relationship with other additive-effects models and their advantages in inference and interpretation. MAGIC populations provide an ideal setting for this kind of investigation because the very low population structure and large sample size result in predictive models with good power and limited confounding due to relatedness.

  1. A Bayesian Networks in Intrusion Detection Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mehdi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Intrusion detection systems (IDSs have been widely used to overcome security threats in computer networks. Anomaly-based approaches have the advantage of being able to detect previously unknown attacks, but they suffer from the difficulty of building robust models of acceptable behaviour which may result in a large number of false alarms caused by incorrect classification of events in current systems. We propose a new approach of an anomaly Intrusion detection system (IDS. It consists of building a reference behaviour model and the use of a Bayesian classification procedure associated to unsupervised learning algorithm to evaluate the deviation between current and reference behaviour. Continuous re-estimation of model parameters allows for real time operation. The use of recursive Log-likelihood and entropy estimation as a measure for monitoring model degradation related with behavior changes and the associated model update show that the accuracy of the event classification process is significantly improved using our proposed approach for reducing the missing-alarm.

  2. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  3. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  4. A mixture copula Bayesian network model for multimodal genomic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingyang Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Gaussian Bayesian networks have become a widely used framework to estimate directed associations between joint Gaussian variables, where the network structure encodes the decomposition of multivariate normal density into local terms. However, the resulting estimates can be inaccurate when the normality assumption is moderately or severely violated, making it unsuitable for dealing with recent genomic data such as the Cancer Genome Atlas data. In the present paper, we propose a mixture copula Bayesian network model which provides great flexibility in modeling non-Gaussian and multimodal data for causal inference. The parameters in mixture copula functions can be efficiently estimated by a routine expectation–maximization algorithm. A heuristic search algorithm based on Bayesian information criterion is developed to estimate the network structure, and prediction can be further improved by the best-scoring network out of multiple predictions from random initial values. Our method outperforms Gaussian Bayesian networks and regular copula Bayesian networks in terms of modeling flexibility and prediction accuracy, as demonstrated using a cell signaling data set. We apply the proposed methods to the Cancer Genome Atlas data to study the genetic and epigenetic pathways that underlie serous ovarian cancer.

  5. Overlapping community detection in weighted networks via a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Xiang, Xin; Tang, Buzhou; Chen, Qingcai; Fan, Shixi; Bu, Junzhao

    2017-02-01

    Complex networks as a powerful way to represent complex systems have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of complex network analysis is to detect communities embedded in networks. In the real world, weighted networks are very common and may contain overlapping communities where a node is allowed to belong to multiple communities. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach, called the Bayesian mixture network (BMN) model, to detect overlapping communities in weighted networks. The advantages of our method are (i) providing soft-partition solutions in weighted networks; (ii) providing soft memberships, which quantify 'how strongly' a node belongs to a community. Experiments on a large number of real and synthetic networks show that our model has the ability in detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models at shedding light on community partition.

  6. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  7. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Price, Layne C; Frazer, Jonathan; Easther, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use $N_f$--quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of $e$-folds $N_*$ between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  8. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Layne C. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics; Peiris, Hiranya V. [Univ. College London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Frazer, Jonathan [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Univ. of the Basque Country, Bilbao (Spain). Dept. of Theoretical Physics; Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao (Spain). IKERBASQUE; Easther, Richard [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics

    2015-11-15

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  9. Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods. PMID:28166542

  10. Applying Object Oriented Bayesian Networks to Large Medical Decision Support Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Olesen, Kristian Grønborg

    2003-01-01

    is a temporal repetition of identical model structures, where the basic building block consists of a one hour model of the metabolism. This type of model is usually modeled as a dynamic Bayesian Network, and we show how object reuse, and in particular the concept of time slices, can be exploited...... in the construction of such models. The other application is the MUNIN system for diagnosis of perioheral muscle and nerve diseases, that is characterized by a number of (almost) identical anatomical structures. The modeling of such structures benefit drom inheritance properties of object oriented Bayesian networks...

  11. Empirical evaluation of scoring functions for Bayesian network model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifa; Malone, Brandon; Yuan, Changhe

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we empirically evaluate the capability of various scoring functions of Bayesian networks for recovering true underlying structures. Similar investigations have been carried out before, but they typically relied on approximate learning algorithms to learn the network structures. The suboptimal structures found by the approximation methods have unknown quality and may affect the reliability of their conclusions. Our study uses an optimal algorithm to learn Bayesian network structures from datasets generated from a set of gold standard Bayesian networks. Because all optimal algorithms always learn equivalent networks, this ensures that only the choice of scoring function affects the learned networks. Another shortcoming of the previous studies stems from their use of random synthetic networks as test cases. There is no guarantee that these networks reflect real-world data. We use real-world data to generate our gold-standard structures, so our experimental design more closely approximates real-world situations. A major finding of our study suggests that, in contrast to results reported by several prior works, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) (or equivalently, Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) consistently outperforms other scoring functions such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence score (BDeu), and factorized normalized maximum likelihood (fNML) in recovering the underlying Bayesian network structures. We believe this finding is a result of using both datasets generated from real-world applications rather than from random processes used in previous studies and learning algorithms to select high-scoring structures rather than selecting random models. Other findings of our study support existing work, e.g., large sample sizes result in learning structures closer to the true underlying structure; the BDeu score is sensitive to the parameter settings; and the fNML performs pretty well on small datasets. We also

  12. A Decomposition Algorithm for Learning Bayesian Network Structures from Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Cordero Hernandez, Jorge

    2008-01-01

    It is a challenging task of learning a large Bayesian network from a small data set. Most conventional structural learning approaches run into the computational as well as the statistical problems. We propose a decomposition algorithm for the structure construction without having to learn...... the complete network. The new learning algorithm firstly finds local components from the data, and then recover the complete network by joining the learned components. We show the empirical performance of the decomposition algorithm in several benchmark networks....

  13. Control of Complex Systems Using Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithm

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    A method based on Bayesian neural networks and genetic algorithm is proposed to control the fermentation process. The relationship between input and output variables is modelled using Bayesian neural network that is trained using hybrid Monte Carlo method. A feedback loop based on genetic algorithm is used to change input variables so that the output variables are as close to the desired target as possible without the loss of confidence level on the prediction that the neural network gives. The proposed procedure is found to reduce the distance between the desired target and measured outputs significantly.

  14. Fault Diagnosis of an Intelligent Building Facility Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Qi-ding; XU Jin-yu; BAI Er-lei

    2008-01-01

    There is great significance to diagnose the fault of an intelligent building facility for fault controlling, repairing, eliminating and preventing. As an example, this paper established a Bayesian networks model for fault diagnosis of the refrigeration system of an intelligent building facility, gave the networks parameters, and analyzed the reasoning mechanism. Based on the model, some data was analyzed and diagnosed by adopting Bayesian networks reasoning platform GeNIe. The result shows that the diagnosis effect is more comprehensive and reasonable than the other method.

  15. Prediction of the insulin sensitivity index using Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard; Dethlefsen, Claus

    . In this paper we learn the parameters and structure of several Bayesian networks relating measurements from an oral glucose tolerance test to the insulin sensitivity index determined from an intravenous study on the same individuals. The networks can then be used in prediction of from an oral glucose tolerance...

  16. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, C.; Knipping, D.T.J.A.; Plant, N.G.; Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.; Baart, F.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a larg

  17. 基于动态贝叶斯网络的缺失数据系统故障辨识%Fault Identification for Missing Data Systems with a Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱金林; 张正道; 潘丰

    2013-01-01

    For the problems in monitoring the industrial systems,such as non-Gaussianity,dynamic nature and missing data,a fault identification method based on dynamic Bayesian network is proposed.A dynamic Bayesian network with mixture of Gaussian output (DBNMG) is constructed,and a parameter learning strategy based on expectation maximization algorithm is deduced.For the missing data issue,a non-imputation inference method for DBNMG is proposed to conduct the fault detection and identification with the partially observed data.The proposed approach is evaluated with the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR).Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.%针对工业系统监控中存在的非高斯性、动态性以及缺失数据等问题,提出了基于动态贝叶斯网络的故障辨识方法.构建了混合高斯输出动态贝叶斯网络(DBNMG)模型,并基于期望最大化算法推导了DBNMG模型的参数学习策略.对于缺失数据问题,提出了一种非修补的DBNMG模型推理方法,利用部分的观测数据实现对故障的检测和辨识.以连续搅拌釜式反应器(CSTR)为对象,对本文提出的方法进行了仿真研究,仿真结果证明了本文所提方法的有效性.

  18. Advance Liquid Metal Reactor Discrete Dynamic Event Tree/Bayesian Network Analysis and Incident Management Guidelines (Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Groth, Katrina M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cardoni, Jeffrey N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wheeler, Timothy A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self-correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the system's design to manage the accident. Inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, but nonetheless extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety, thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayesian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR-14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Idaho National Laboratory for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  19. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing.

  20. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing.

  1. Uncertainty Modeling Based on Bayesian Network in Ontology Mapping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yuhua; LIU Tao; SUN Xiaolin

    2006-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is crucial in exact concept mapping between ontologies. This paper presents a new framework on modeling uncertainty in ontologies based on bayesian networks (BN). In our approach, ontology Web language (OWL) is extended to add probabilistic markups for attaching probability information, the source and target ontologies (expressed by patulous OWL) are translated into bayesian networks (BNs), the mapping between the two ontologies can be digged out by constructing the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the BN using a improved algorithm named I-IPFP based on iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPFP). The basic idea of this framework and algorithm are validated by positive results from computer experiments.

  2. Bayesian networks for fMRI: a primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Jeanette A; Ramsey, Joseph D

    2014-02-01

    Bayesian network analysis is an attractive approach for studying the functional integration of brain networks, as it includes both the locations of connections between regions of the brain (functional connectivity) and more importantly the direction of the causal relationship between the regions (directed functional connectivity). Further, these approaches are more attractive than other functional connectivity analyses in that they can often operate on larger sets of nodes and run searches over a wide range of candidate networks. An important study by Smith et al. (2011) illustrated that many Bayesian network approaches did not perform well in identifying the directionality of connections in simulated single-subject data. Since then, new Bayesian network approaches have been developed that have overcome the failures in the Smith work. Additionally, an important discovery was made that shows a preprocessing step used in the Smith data puts some of the Bayesian network methods at a disadvantage. This work provides a review of Bayesian network analyses, focusing on the methods used in the Smith work as well as methods developed since 2011 that have improved estimation performance. Importantly, only approaches that have been specifically designed for fMRI data perform well, as they have been tailored to meet the challenges of fMRI data. Although this work does not suggest a single best model, it describes the class of models that perform best and highlights the features of these models that allow them to perform well on fMRI data. Specifically, methods that rely on non-Gaussianity to direct causal relationships in the network perform well.

  3. MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

    2017-09-01

    Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

  4. The application of Bayesian networks in natural hazard analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Vogel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In natural hazards we face several uncertainties due to our lack of knowledge and/or the intrinsic randomness of the underlying natural processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analysis approaches are still widely used in natural hazard assessments, with the pitfall of underestimating the hazard with potentially disastrous consequences. In this paper we show that the Bayesian network approach offers a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of different uncertainties as those encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although well studied in theory, the application of Bayesian networks on real-world data is often not straightforward and requires specific tailoring and adaption of existing algorithms. We demonstrate by way of three case studies (a ground motion model for a seismic hazard analysis, a flood damage assessment, and a landslide susceptibility study the applicability of Bayesian networks across different domains showcasing various properties and benefits of the Bayesian network framework. We offer suggestions as how to tackle practical problems arising along the way, mainly concentrating on the handling of continuous variables, missing observations, and the interaction of both. We stress that our networks are completely data-driven, although prior domain knowledge can be included if desired.

  5. Modeling the City Distribution System Reliability with Bayesian Networks to Identify Influence Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the increasingly uncertain economic environment, the research on the reliability of urban distribution system has great practical significance for the integration of logistics and supply chain resources. This paper summarizes the factors that affect the city logistics distribution system. Starting from the research of factors that influence the reliability of city distribution system, further construction of city distribution system reliability influence model is built based on Bayesian networks. The complex problem is simplified by using the sub-Bayesian network, and an example is analyzed. In the calculation process, we combined the traditional Bayesian algorithm and the Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm, which made the Bayesian model able to lay a more accurate foundation. The results show that the Bayesian network can accurately reflect the dynamic relationship among the factors affecting the reliability of urban distribution system. Moreover, by changing the prior probability of the node of the cause, the correlation degree between the variables that affect the successful distribution can be calculated. The results have significant practical significance on improving the quality of distribution, the level of distribution, and the efficiency of enterprises.

  6. A COMPOUND POISSON MODEL FOR LEARNING DISCRETE BAYESIAN NETWORKS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Abdelaziz GHRIBI; Afif MASMOUDI

    2013-01-01

    We introduce here the concept of Bayesian networks, in compound Poisson model, which provides a graphical modeling framework that encodes the joint probability distribution for a set of random variables within a directed acyclic graph. We suggest an approach proposal which offers a new mixed implicit estimator. We show that the implicit approach applied in compound Poisson model is very attractive for its ability to understand data and does not require any prior information. A comparative study between learned estimates given by implicit and by standard Bayesian approaches is established. Under some conditions and based on minimal squared error calculations, we show that the mixed implicit estimator is better than the standard Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators. We illustrate our approach by considering a simulation study in the context of mobile communication networks.

  7. Bayesian网中的独立关系%The Independence Relations in Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王飞; 刘大有; 卢奕男; 薛万欣

    2001-01-01

    Bayesian networks are compact representation of joint probabilistic distribution. Independence is soul of Bayesian networks because it enables to save storage space,to reduce computational complexity and to simplify knowledge acquisition and modeling. In this paper,we discuss three kinds of independences in Bayesian networks :conditional independence,context-specific independence and causal influence independence.

  8. Learning Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring using Markov Chain Monte Carlo search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baesens, B.; Egmont-Petersen, M.; Castelo, R.; Vanthienen, J.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we will evaluate the power and usefulness of Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring. Various types of Bayesian network classifiers will be evaluated and contrasted including unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers learnt using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search. The exp

  9. Bayesian Network Models for Local Dependence among Observable Outcome Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; Mulder, Joris; Hemat, Lisa A.; Yan, Duanli

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task, which may be dependent. This article explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations: (a) no context--ignores dependence among observables; (b) compensatory context--introduces…

  10. The application of Bayesian network in Uncertainty management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    颜诗洋

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty management is playing an important role in many fields,especially in AI (artificial intelligence). This paper introduces the concept of probability and the Bayesian Network which are widely used in uncertainty management field.Additionally, two examples are completed and analyzed in the paper.

  11. Model Criticism of Bayesian Networks with Latent Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, David M.; Mislevy, Robert J.; Almond, Russell G.

    This study investigated statistical methods for identifying errors in Bayesian networks (BN) with latent variables, as found in intelligent cognitive assessments. BN, commonly used in artificial intelligence systems, are promising mechanisms for scoring constructed-response examinations. The success of an intelligent assessment or tutoring system…

  12. A Structure Learning Algorithm for Bayesian Network Using Prior Knowledge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐俊刚; 赵越; 陈健; 韩超

    2015-01-01

    Learning structure from data is one of the most important fundamental tasks of Bayesian network research. Particularly, learning optional structure of Bayesian network is a non-deterministic polynomial-time (NP) hard problem. To solve this problem, many heuristic algorithms have been proposed, and some of them learn Bayesian network structure with the help of different types of prior knowledge. However, the existing algorithms have some restrictions on the prior knowledge, such as quality restriction and use restriction. This makes it difficult to use the prior knowledge well in these algorithms. In this paper, we introduce the prior knowledge into the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and propose an algorithm called Constrained MCMC (C-MCMC) algorithm to learn the structure of the Bayesian network. Three types of prior knowledge are defined: existence of parent node, absence of parent node, and distribution knowledge including the conditional probability distribution (CPD) of edges and the probability distribution (PD) of nodes. All of these types of prior knowledge are easily used in this algorithm. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method C-MCMC.

  13. Implementation of an Adaptive Learning System Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, Keiji; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Hata, Yoko; Kimura, Hiroaki

    2015-01-01

    An adaptive learning system is proposed that incorporates a Bayesian network to efficiently gauge learners' understanding at the course-unit level. Also, learners receive content that is adapted to their measured level of understanding. The system works on an iPad via the Edmodo platform. A field experiment using the system in an elementary school…

  14. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  15. A Bayesian network approach to coastal storm impact modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jäger, W.S.; Den Heijer, C.; Bolle, A.; Hanea, A.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop a Bayesian network (BN) that relates offshore storm conditions to their accompagnying flood characteristics and damages to residential buildings, following on the trend of integrated flood impact modeling. It is based on data from hydrodynamic storm simulations, information

  16. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  17. Applying Bayesian networks in practical customer satisfaction studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaronski, W.; Bloemer, J.M.M.; Vanhoof, K.; Wets, G.

    2004-01-01

    This chapter presents an application of Bayesian network technology in an empirical customer satisfaction study. The findings of the study should provide insight to the importance of product/service dimensions in terms of the strength of their influence on overall (dis)satisfaction. To this end we a

  18. Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis...

  19. Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

    1998-10-01

    We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

  20. Exploiting sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks for consumer satisfaction study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaronski, W.; Bloemer, J.M.M.; Vanhoof, K.; Wets, G.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents an application of Bayesian network technology in a empirical customer satisfaction study. The findings of the study should provide insight as to the importance of product/service dimensions in terms of the strength of their influence on overall satisfaction. To this end we apply a

  1. Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis...

  2. CausalTrail: Testing hypothesis using causal Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckel, Daniel; Schmidt, Florian; Trampert, Patrick; Lenhof, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Summary Causal Bayesian Networks are a special class of Bayesian networks in which the hierarchy directly encodes the causal relationships between the variables. This allows to compute the effect of interventions, which are external changes to the system, caused by e.g. gene knockouts or an administered drug. Whereas numerous packages for constructing causal Bayesian networks are available, hardly any program targeted at downstream analysis exists. In this paper we present CausalTrail, a tool for performing reasoning on causal Bayesian networks using the do-calculus. CausalTrail's features include multiple data import methods, a flexible query language for formulating hypotheses, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. The program is able to account for missing data and thus can be readily applied in multi-omics settings where it is common that not all measurements are performed for all samples. Availability and Implementation CausalTrail is implemented in C++ using the Boost and Qt5 libraries. It can be obtained from https://github.com/dstoeckel/causaltrail.

  3. Reasoning under uncertainty in natural language dialogue using Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, Simon

    2003-01-01

    In which uncertainty in natural language dialogue is introduced as the central problem in the research described in this thesis. The idea of using of Bayesian networks is hypothesised as a possible solution to this problem. Dialogue acts are presented as the central notion in our approach to dialogu

  4. Bayesian Networks for Causal Reasoning in Situation Assessment%用于态势评估中因果推理的贝叶斯网络

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李伟生; 王宝树

    2002-01-01

    Causal reasoning plays an important role in situation assessment (SA). Using Bayesian networks to find out the hidden patterns between situation hypothesis and events is the function needed to accomplish in situation as sessment. Based on different link relationship,a Bayesian network model for situation assessment is analyzed in this paper. To overcome the weakness of this model in application for dynamic changed scenario ,this paper presents an approach that uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent features of the situation hypothesis and events. And the algorithms of propagation of corresponding information through the network are introduced respectively.

  5. Robust Learning of Fixed-Structure Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Diakonikolas, Ilias; Kane, Daniel; Stewart, Alistair

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in an agnostic model where an $\\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. Our agnostic learning model is similar to -- in fact, stronger than -- Huber's contamination model in robust statistics. In this work, we study the fully observable Bernoulli case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent facto...

  6. Dynamic Bayesian Combination of Multiple Imperfect Classifiers

    CERN Document Server

    Simpson, Edwin; Psorakis, Ioannis; Smith, Arfon

    2012-01-01

    Classifier combination methods need to make best use of the outputs of multiple, imperfect classifiers to enable higher accuracy classifications. In many situations, such as when human decisions need to be combined, the base decisions can vary enormously in reliability. A Bayesian approach to such uncertain combination allows us to infer the differences in performance between individuals and to incorporate any available prior knowledge about their abilities when training data is sparse. In this paper we explore Bayesian classifier combination, using the computationally efficient framework of variational Bayesian inference. We apply the approach to real data from a large citizen science project, Galaxy Zoo Supernovae, and show that our method far outperforms other established approaches to imperfect decision combination. We go on to analyse the putative community structure of the decision makers, based on their inferred decision making strategies, and show that natural groupings are formed. Finally we present ...

  7. Inference of gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Younhee

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inference of gene networks typically relies on measurements across a wide range of conditions or treatments. Although one network structure is predicted, the relationship between genes could vary across conditions. A comprehensive approach to infer general and condition-dependent gene networks was evaluated. This approach integrated Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture models to describe continuous microarray gene expression measurements, and three gene networks were predicted. Results The first reconstructions of a circadian rhythm pathway in honey bees and an adherens junction pathway in mouse embryos were obtained. In addition, general and condition-specific gene relationships, some unexpected, were detected in these two pathways and in a yeast cell-cycle pathway. The mixture Bayesian network approach identified all (honey bee circadian rhythm and mouse adherens junction pathways or the vast majority (yeast cell-cycle pathway of the gene relationships reported in empirical studies. Findings across the three pathways and data sets indicate that the mixture Bayesian network approach is well-suited to infer gene pathways based on microarray data. Furthermore, the interpretation of model estimates provided a broader understanding of the relationships between genes. The mixture models offered a comprehensive description of the relationships among genes in complex biological processes or across a wide range of conditions. The mixture parameter estimates and corresponding odds that the gene network inferred for a sample pertained to each mixture component allowed the uncovering of both general and condition-dependent gene relationships and patterns of expression. Conclusion This study demonstrated the two main benefits of learning gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks. First, the identification of the optimal number of mixture components supported by the data offered a robust approach to infer gene relationships and

  8. Research of Gene Regulatory Network with Multi-Time Delay Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Bei; MENG Fanjiang; LI Yong; LIU Liyan

    2008-01-01

    The gene regulatory network was reconstructed according to time-series microarray data getting from hybridization at different time between gene chips to analyze coordination and restriction between genes. An algorithm for controlling the gene expression regulatory network of the whole cell was designed using Bayesian network which provides an effective aided analysis for gene regulatory network.

  9. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  10. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  11. Comparison of Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter and successive restrictions algorithms for computing probability distributions in Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smail, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The basic task of any probabilistic inference system in Bayesian networks is computing the posterior probability distribution for a subset or subsets of random variables, given values or evidence for some other variables from the same Bayesian network. Many methods and algorithms have been developed to exact and approximate inference in Bayesian networks. This work compares two exact inference methods in Bayesian networks-Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter and the successive restrictions algorithm-from the perspective of computational efficiency. The two methods were applied for comparison to a Chest Clinic Bayesian Network. Results indicate that the successive restrictions algorithm shows more computational efficiency than the Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter algorithm.

  12. Robust full Bayesian learning for radial basis networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrieu, C; de Freitas, N; Doucet, A

    2001-10-01

    We propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for radial basis networks. This model treats the model dimension (number of neurons), model parameters, regularization parameters, and noise parameters as unknown random variables. We develop a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to perform the Bayesian computation. We find that the results obtained using this method are not only better than the ones reported previously, but also appear to be robust with respect to the prior specification. In addition, we propose a novel and computationally efficient reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing algorithm to optimize neural networks. This algorithm enables us to maximize the joint posterior distribution of the network parameters and the number of basis function. It performs a global search in the joint space of the parameters and number of parameters, thereby surmounting the problem of local minima to a large extent. We show that by calibrating the full hierarchical Bayesian prior, we can obtain the classical Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and minimum description length model selection criteria within a penalized likelihood framework. Finally, we present a geometric convergence theorem for the algorithm with homogeneous transition kernel and a convergence theorem for the reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing method.

  13. Using Bayesian networks to support decision-focused information retrieval

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehner, P.; Elsaesser, C.; Seligman, L. [Mitre Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper has described an approach to controlling the process of pulling data/information from distributed data bases in a way that is specific to a persons specific decision making context. Our prototype implementation of this approach uses a knowledge-based planner to generate a plan, an automatically constructed Bayesian network to evaluate the plan, specialized processing of the network to derive key information items that would substantially impact the evaluation of the plan (e.g., determine that replanning is needed), automated construction of Standing Requests for Information (SRIs) which are automated functions that monitor changes and trends in distributed data base that are relevant to the key information items. This emphasis of this paper is on how Bayesian networks are used.

  14. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  15. Bayesian Computation Methods for Inferring Regulatory Network Models Using Biomedical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Tianhai

    2016-01-01

    The rapid advancement of high-throughput technologies provides huge amounts of information for gene expression and protein activity in the genome-wide scale. The availability of genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics dataset gives an unprecedented opportunity to study detailed molecular regulations that is very important to precision medicine. However, it is still a significant challenge to design effective and efficient method to infer the network structure and dynamic property of regulatory networks. In recent years a number of computing methods have been designed to explore the regulatory mechanisms as well as estimate unknown model parameters. Among them, the Bayesian inference method can combine both prior knowledge and experimental data to generate updated information regarding the regulatory mechanisms. This chapter gives a brief review for Bayesian statistical methods that are used to infer the network structure and estimate model parameters based on experimental data.

  16. Bayesian estimation of the network autocorrelation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dittrich, D.; Leenders, R.T.A.J.; Mulder, J.

    2017-01-01

    The network autocorrelation model has been extensively used by researchers interested modeling social influence effects in social networks. The most common inferential method in the model is classical maximum likelihood estimation. This approach, however, has known problems such as negative bias of

  17. Bayesian inference of structural brain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinne, Max; Heskes, Tom; Beckmann, Christian F; van Gerven, Marcel A J

    2013-02-01

    Structural brain networks are used to model white-matter connectivity between spatially segregated brain regions. The presence, location and orientation of these white matter tracts can be derived using diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in combination with probabilistic tractography. Unfortunately, as of yet, none of the existing approaches provide an undisputed way of inferring brain networks from the streamline distributions which tractography produces. State-of-the-art methods rely on an arbitrary threshold or, alternatively, yield weighted results that are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we provide a generative model that explicitly describes how structural brain networks lead to observed streamline distributions. This allows us to draw principled conclusions about brain networks, which we validate using simultaneously acquired resting-state functional MRI data. Inference may be further informed by means of a prior which combines connectivity estimates from multiple subjects. Based on this prior, we obtain networks that significantly improve on the conventional approach.

  18. A self-growing Bayesian network classifier for online learning of human motion patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Yung, NHC; Chen, Z

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a new self-growing Bayesian network classifier for online learning of human motion patterns (HMPs) in dynamically changing environments. The proposed classifier is designed to represent HMP classes based on a set of historical trajectories labeled by unsupervised clustering. It then assigns HMP class labels to current trajectories. Parameters of the proposed classifier are recalculated based on the augmented dataset of labeled trajectories and all HMP classes are according...

  19. 企业运行指标因果分析的动态贝叶斯网络方法%Dynamic Bayesian network method for causal analysis between enterprise operation indexes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高瑞; 王双成; 杜瑞杰

    2016-01-01

    针对现有的企业运行指标分析方法只强调动态或静态信息,不易实现二者结合的情况,建立了用于企业运行指标因果分析的动态贝叶斯网络模型,这种模型可将时间片间的指标动态时序因果关系与时间片内指标静态因果联系融为一体,并通过量化推理进行动态与静态因果分析。通过与领域专家交流,所建立的企业运行指标动态贝叶斯网络良好地反映了数据中所蕴涵的因果关系。%In the light of those methods now available for analyzing enterprises operation indexes are emphasizing only dynamic or static information,and have not realized the combinations between those two kinds of different information.This paper set up a dynamic Bayesian network method for causal analysis among enterprises operation indexes.The model could combine dynamic time sequence and static causal relationships of panel data as a whole,could analyze both dynamic and static causal relationships through quantitative inference without the assumptions of liner causal relationships.Communicating with the ex-perts in the relative field,the model can primely be used to analyze multi-variables dynamic causal relationships contained in the data.

  20. Application of Bayesian Dynamic Forecast in Anomaly Detection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Hui; CAO Yuanda

    2005-01-01

    A macroscopical anomaly detection method based on intrusion statistic and Bayesian dynamic forecast is presented. A large number of alert data that cannot be dealt with in time are always aggregated in control centers of large-scale intrusion detection systems. In order to improve the efficiency and veracity of intrusion analysis, the intrusion intensity values are picked from alert data and Bayesian dynamic forecast method is used to detect anomaly. The experiments show that the new method is effective on detecting macroscopical anomaly in large-scale intrusion detection systems.

  1. Looking for Sustainable Urban Mobility through Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Fusco

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available There is no formalised theory of sustainable urban mobility systems. Observed patterns of urban mobility are often considered unsustainable. But we don’t know what a city with sustainable mobility should look like. It is nevertheless increasingly apparent that the urban mobility system plays an important role in the achievement of the city’s wider sustainability objectives.In this paper we explore the characteristics of sustainable urban mobility systems through the technique of Bayesian networks. At the frontier between multivariate statistics and artificial intelligence, Bayesian networks provide powerful models of causal knowledge in an uncertain context. Using data on urban structure, transportation offer, mobility demand, resource consumption and environmental externalities from seventy-five world cities, we developed a systemic model of the city-transportation-environment interaction in the form of a Bayesian network. The network could then be used to infer the features of the city with sustainable mobility.The Bayesian model indicates that the city with sustainable mobility is most probably a dense city with highly efficient transit and multimodal mobility. It produces high levels of accessibility without relying on a fast road network. The achievement of sustainability objectives for urban mobility is probably compatible with all socioeconomic contexts.By measuring the distance of world cities from the inferred sustainability profile, we finally derive a geography of sustainability for mobility systems. The cities closest to the sustainability profile are in Central Europe as well as in affluent countries of the Far East. Car-dependent American cities are the farthest from the desired sustainability profile.

  2. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Cripps

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

  3. Bayesian inference in dynamic domains using logical OR gates

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claessens, R

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ., de Waal, A., Marnewick, K., Cilliers, D., Houser, A. M., and Boast, L. (2010). Modelling cheetah relocation success in southern Africa using an Iterative Bayesian Network Develop- ment Cycle. Ecological Modelling, 221(4):641 – 651. Koen, H., de...

  4. A Full Bayesian Approach for Boolean Genetic Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shengtong; Wong, Raymond K. W.; Lee, Thomas C. M.; Shen, Linghao; Li, Shuo-Yen R.; Fan, Xiaodan

    2014-01-01

    Boolean networks are a simple but efficient model for describing gene regulatory systems. A number of algorithms have been proposed to infer Boolean networks. However, these methods do not take full consideration of the effects of noise and model uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a full Bayesian approach to infer Boolean genetic networks. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to obtain the posterior samples of both the network structure and the related parameters. In addition to regular link addition and removal moves, which can guarantee the irreducibility of the Markov chain for traversing the whole network space, carefully constructed mixture proposals are used to improve the Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence. Both simulations and a real application on cell-cycle data show that our method is more powerful than existing methods for the inference of both the topology and logic relations of the Boolean network from observed data. PMID:25551820

  5. A full bayesian approach for boolean genetic network inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengtong Han

    Full Text Available Boolean networks are a simple but efficient model for describing gene regulatory systems. A number of algorithms have been proposed to infer Boolean networks. However, these methods do not take full consideration of the effects of noise and model uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a full Bayesian approach to infer Boolean genetic networks. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to obtain the posterior samples of both the network structure and the related parameters. In addition to regular link addition and removal moves, which can guarantee the irreducibility of the Markov chain for traversing the whole network space, carefully constructed mixture proposals are used to improve the Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence. Both simulations and a real application on cell-cycle data show that our method is more powerful than existing methods for the inference of both the topology and logic relations of the Boolean network from observed data.

  6. Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

    2005-01-01

    The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

  7. Research on Bayesian Network Based User's Interest Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Weifeng; XU Baowen; CUI Zifeng; XU Lei

    2007-01-01

    It has very realistic significance for improving the quality of users' accessing information to filter and selectively retrieve the large number of information on the Internet. On the basis of analyzing the existing users' interest models and some basic questions of users' interest (representation, derivation and identification of users' interest), a Bayesian network based users' interest model is given. In this model, the users' interest reduction algorithm based on Markov Blanket model is used to reduce the interest noise, and then users' interested and not interested documents are used to train the Bayesian network. Compared to the simple model, this model has the following advantages like small space requirements, simple reasoning method and high recognition rate. The experiment result shows this model can more appropriately reflect the user's interest, and has higher performance and good usability.

  8. [A medical image semantic modeling based on hierarchical Bayesian networks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chunyi; Ma, Lihong; Yin, Junxun; Chen, Jianyu

    2009-04-01

    A semantic modeling approach for medical image semantic retrieval based on hierarchical Bayesian networks was proposed, in allusion to characters of medical images. It used GMM (Gaussian mixture models) to map low-level image features into object semantics with probabilities, then it captured high-level semantics through fusing these object semantics using a Bayesian network, so that it built a multi-layer medical image semantic model, aiming to enable automatic image annotation and semantic retrieval by using various keywords at different semantic levels. As for the validity of this method, we have built a multi-level semantic model from a small set of astrocytoma MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) samples, in order to extract semantics of astrocytoma in malignant degree. Experiment results show that this is a superior approach.

  9. Decision Support System for Maintenance Management Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The maintenance process has undergone several major developments that have led to proactive considerations and the transformation from the traditional "fail and fix" practice into the "predict and prevent" proactive maintenance methodology. The anticipation action, which characterizes this proactive maintenance strategy is mainly based on monitoring, diagnosis, prognosis and decision-making modules. Oil monitoring is a key component of a successful condition monitoring program. It can be used as a proactive tool to identify the wear modes of rubbing parts and diagnoses the faults in machinery. But diagnosis relying on oil analysis technology must deal with uncertain knowledge and fuzzy input data. Besides other methods, Bayesian Networks have been extensively applied to fault diagnosis with the advantages of uncertainty inference; however, in the area of oil monitoring, it is a new field. This paper presents an integrated Bayesian network based decision support for maintenance of diesel engines.

  10. Compressive dynamic range imaging via Bayesian shrinkage dictionary learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xin

    2016-12-01

    We apply the Bayesian shrinkage dictionary learning into compressive dynamic-range imaging. By attenuating the luminous intensity impinging upon the detector at the pixel level, we demonstrate a conceptual design of an 8-bit camera to sample high-dynamic-range scenes with a single snapshot. Coding strategies for both monochrome and color cameras are proposed. A Bayesian reconstruction algorithm is developed to learn a dictionary in situ on the sampled image, for joint reconstruction and demosaicking. We use global-local shrinkage priors to learn the dictionary and dictionary coefficients representing the data. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed camera and the superior performance of the Bayesian shrinkage dictionary learning algorithm.

  11. Partial Order MCMC for Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Niinimaki, Teppo; Koivisto, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled partial order, the conditional probabilities of interest are computed exactly. We give both analytical and empirical results that suggest the superiority of the new method compared to previous methods, which sample either directed acyclic graphs or linear orders on the nodes.

  12. Hybrid ICA-Bayesian network approach reveals distinct effective connectivity differences in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D; Burge, J; Lane, T; Pearlson, G D; Kiehl, K A; Calhoun, V D

    2008-10-01

    We utilized a discrete dynamic Bayesian network (dDBN) approach (Burge, J., Lane, T., Link, H., Qiu, S., Clark, V.P., 2007. Discrete dynamic Bayesian network analysis of fMRI data. Hum Brain Mapp.) to determine differences in brain regions between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls on a measure of effective connectivity, termed the approximate conditional likelihood score (ACL) (Burge, J., Lane, T., 2005. Learning Class-Discriminative Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, Bonn, Germany, pp. 97-104.). The ACL score represents a class-discriminative measure of effective connectivity by measuring the relative likelihood of the correlation between brain regions in one group versus another. The algorithm is capable of finding non-linear relationships between brain regions because it uses discrete rather than continuous values and attempts to model temporal relationships with a first-order Markov and stationary assumption constraint (Papoulis, A., 1991. Probability, random variables, and stochastic processes. McGraw-Hill, New York.). Since Bayesian networks are overly sensitive to noisy data, we introduced an independent component analysis (ICA) filtering approach that attempted to reduce the noise found in fMRI data by unmixing the raw datasets into a set of independent spatial component maps. Components that represented noise were removed and the remaining components reconstructed into the dimensions of the original fMRI datasets. We applied the dDBN algorithm to a group of 35 patients with schizophrenia and 35 matched healthy controls using an ICA filtered and unfiltered approach. We determined that filtering the data significantly improved the magnitude of the ACL score. Patients showed the greatest ACL scores in several regions, most markedly the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres. Our findings suggest that schizophrenia patients exhibit weaker connectivity than healthy controls in multiple regions

  13. BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR SUB-GROUPS OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeliz KARACA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, patients with multiple sclerosis "sub-groups" characteristics in relation to detection of a statistically (SPSS and are provided in the Bayesian network. The main objective of this study, regarding the appearance of MRI lesions in patients with Multiple Sclerosis information and / or EDSS scores to investigate the possible attack of multiple sclerosis subgroups. Bayesian networks, reflects the level of sub-groups in multiple sclerosis patients. Analyzes were conducted to determine the change of these properties. MR images of the input data is discussed for the MS patients, the sub-groups of MS, "Remitting Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis", "Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis" with their patients' clinical brain MR images, brain stem, and the Upper Cervical Regions of the corpus callosum-periventricular lesions created in the information. Multiple Sclerosis is owned by the input data is created correctly identify disease subgroups of MS patients for the number of lesions in MR images and MR image of the three regions for the year for which the information used in the EDSS score. Of MS is RRMS, SPMS correctly identify sub-groups of the brain with Brain Stem, and upper cervical regions of the corpus callosum-periventricular lesions in these three points for the region and / or EDSS score information can be emphasized by using the Bayesian networks play an important role in the analysis.

  14. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalet, Alan M; Gennari, John H; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H

    2015-04-07

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network's conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  15. Bayesian inference of structural brain networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinne, M.; Heskes, T.; Beckmann, C.F.; Gerven, van M.A.J.

    2013-01-01

    Structural brain networks are used to model white-matter connectivity between spatially segregated brain regions. The presence, location and orientation of these white matter tracts can be derived using diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in combination with probabilistic tractography. Unf

  16. A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for adaptive optics forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhi; Chen, Ying; Li, Xinyang; Qin, Xiaolin; Wang, Huiyong

    2017-01-01

    Real-time adaptive optics is a technology for enhancing the resolution of ground-based optical telescopes and overcoming the disturbance of atmospheric turbulence. The performance of the system is limited by delay errors induced by the servo system and photoelectrons noise of wavefront sensor. In order to cut these delay errors, this paper proposes a novel model to forecast the future control voltages of the deformable mirror. The predictive model is constructed by a multi-layered back propagation network with Bayesian regularization (BRBP). For the purpose of parallel computation and less disturbance, we adopt a number of sub-BP neural networks to substitute the whole network. The Bayesian regularized network assigns a probability to the network weights, allowing the network to automatically and optimally penalize excessively complex models. The simulation results show that the BRBP introduces smaller mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square errors (MSE) than other typical algorithms. Meanwhile, real data analysis results show that the BRBP model has strong generalization capability and parallelism.

  17. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

  18. Remotely sensed monitoring of small reservoir dynamics: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eilander, D.M.; Annor, F.O.; Iannini, L.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    2014-01-01

    Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitorin

  19. SAGA: a hybrid search algorithm for Bayesian Network structure learning of transcriptional regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adabor, Emmanuel S; Acquaah-Mensah, George K; Oduro, Francis T

    2015-02-01

    Bayesian Networks have been used for the inference of transcriptional regulatory relationships among genes, and are valuable for obtaining biological insights. However, finding optimal Bayesian Network (BN) is NP-hard. Thus, heuristic approaches have sought to effectively solve this problem. In this work, we develop a hybrid search method combining Simulated Annealing with a Greedy Algorithm (SAGA). SAGA explores most of the search space by undergoing a two-phase search: first with a Simulated Annealing search and then with a Greedy search. Three sets of background-corrected and normalized microarray datasets were used to test the algorithm. BN structure learning was also conducted using the datasets, and other established search methods as implemented in BANJO (Bayesian Network Inference with Java Objects). The Bayesian Dirichlet Equivalence (BDe) metric was used to score the networks produced with SAGA. SAGA predicted transcriptional regulatory relationships among genes in networks that evaluated to higher BDe scores with high sensitivities and specificities. Thus, the proposed method competes well with existing search algorithms for Bayesian Network structure learning of transcriptional regulatory networks.

  20. Unifying acute stroke treatment guidelines for a Bayesian belief network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Alexa; Arnold, Corey W; El-Saden, Suzie; Liebeskind, David S; Andrada, Lewellyn; Saver, Jeffrey; Bui, Alex A T

    2013-01-01

    With the large number of clinical practice guidelines available, there is an increasing need for a comprehensive unified model for acute ischemic stroke treatment to assist in clinical decision making. We present a unified treatment model derived through review of existing clinical practice guidelines, meta-analyses, and clinical trials. Using logic from the treatment model, a Bayesian belief network was defined and fitted to data from our institution's observational quality improvement database for acute stroke patients. The resulting network validates known relationships between variables, treatment decisions and outcomes, and enables the exploration of new correlative relationships not defined in current guidelines.

  1. AIS-BN: An Adaptive Importance Sampling Algorithm for Evidential Reasoning in Large Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, J; 10.1613/jair.764

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AIS-BN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in finite-dimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from different stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AIS-BN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, likelihood weighting (Fung and Chang...

  2. D-optimal Bayesian Interrogation for Parameter and Noise Identification of Recurrent Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Poczos, Barnabas

    2008-01-01

    We introduce a novel online Bayesian method for the identification of a family of noisy recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We develop Bayesian active learning technique in order to optimize the interrogating stimuli given past experiences. In particular, we consider the unknown parameters as stochastic variables and use the D-optimality principle, also known as `\\emph{infomax method}', to choose optimal stimuli. We apply a greedy technique to maximize the information gain concerning network parameters at each time step. We also derive the D-optimal estimation of the additive noise that perturbs the dynamical system of the RNN. Our analytical results are approximation-free. The analytic derivation gives rise to attractive quadratic update rules.

  3. Information flow among neural networks with Bayesian estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; LI XiaoLi; OUYANG GaoXiang; GUAN XinPing

    2007-01-01

    Estimating the interaction among neural networks is an interesting issue in neuroscience. Some methods have been proposed to estimate the coupling strength among neural networks; however, few estimations of the coupling direction (information flow) among neural networks have been attempted. It is known that Bayesian estimator is based on a priori knowledge and a probability of event occurrence. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate coupling directions among neural networks with conditional mutual information that is estimated by Bayesian estimation. First, this method is applied to analyze the simulated EEG series generated by a nonlinear lumped-parameter model. In comparison with the conditional mutual information with Shannon entropy, it is found that this method is more successful in estimating the coupling direction, and is insensitive to the length of EEG series. Therefore, this method is suitable to analyze a short time series in practice. Second, we demonstrate how this method can be applied to the analysis of human intracranial epileptic electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, and to indicate the coupling directions among neural networks. Therefore, this method helps to elucidate the epileptic focus localization.

  4. Mobile sensor network noise reduction and recalibration using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Y.; Tang, Y.; Zhu, W.

    2016-02-01

    People are becoming increasingly interested in mobile air quality sensor network applications. By eliminating the inaccuracies caused by spatial and temporal heterogeneity of pollutant distributions, this method shows great potential for atmospheric research. However, systems based on low-cost air quality sensors often suffer from sensor noise and drift. For the sensing systems to operate stably and reliably in real-world applications, those problems must be addressed. In this work, we exploit the correlation of different types of sensors caused by cross sensitivity to help identify and correct the outlier readings. By employing a Bayesian network based system, we are able to recover the erroneous readings and recalibrate the drifted sensors simultaneously. Our method improves upon the state-of-art Bayesian belief network techniques by incorporating the virtual evidence and adjusting the sensor calibration functions recursively.Specifically, we have (1) designed a system based on the Bayesian belief network to detect and recover the abnormal readings, (2) developed methods to update the sensor calibration functions infield without requirement of ground truth, and (3) extended the Bayesian network with virtual evidence for infield sensor recalibration. To validate our technique, we have tested our technique with metal oxide sensors measuring NO2, CO, and O3 in a real-world deployment. Compared with the existing Bayesian belief network techniques, results based on our experiment setup demonstrate that our system can reduce error by 34.1 % and recover 4 times more data on average.

  5. Community Detection for Multiplex Social Networks Based on Relational Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Jiuchuan; Jaeger, Manfred

    2014-01-01

    Many techniques have been proposed for community detection in social networks. Most of these techniques are only designed for networks defined by a single relation. However, many real networks are multiplex networks that contain multiple types of relations and different attributes on the nodes....... In this paper we propose to use relational Bayesian networks for the specification of probabilistic network models, and develop inference techniques that solve the community detection problem based on these models. The use of relational Bayesian networks as a flexible high-level modeling framework enables us...... to express different models capturing different aspects of community detection in multiplex networks in a coherent manner, and to use a single inference mechanism for all models....

  6. Bayesian networks: a powerful tool for systems biology study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiu-Jie WANG

    2010-01-01

    @@ Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010The wide application of omics research approaches caused a burst of biological data in the past decade, and also promoted the growth of systems biology, a research field that studies biological questions from a genome-wide point of view. One feature of systems biology study is to integrate and identify. Not only experiments are carried out at whole-genome scales, but also data from various resources, such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics,and metabolics data, need to be integrated to identify correlations among targeted entities. Therefore, plenty amounts of experimental data, robust statistical methods, and reliable network construction models are indispensable for systems biology study. Among the available network construction models, Bayesian network is considered as one of the most effective methods available so far for biological network predictions (Pe'er, 2005).

  7. A Software Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Belief Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Hu; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yang Yun; Junbiao Tang

    2006-01-01

    The uncertainty during the period of software project development often brings huge risks to contractors and clients. Ifwe can find an effective method to predict the cost and quality of software projects based on facts like the project character and two-side cooperating capability at the beginning of the project, we can reduce the risk.Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) is a good tool for analyzing uncertain consequences, but it is difficult to produce precise network structure and conditional probability table. In this paper, we built up network structure by Delphi method for conditional probability table learning, and learn update probability table and nodes' confidence levels continuously according to the application cases, which made the evaluation network have learning abilities, and evaluate the software development risk of organization more accurately. This paper also introduces EM algorithm, which will enhance the ability to produce hidden nodes caused by variant software projects.

  8. Discriminating complex networks through supervised NDR and Bayesian classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ke-Sheng; Rong, Li-Li; Yu, Kai

    2016-12-01

    Discriminating complex networks is a particularly important task for the purpose of the systematic study of networks. In order to discriminate unknown networks exactly, a large set of network measurements are needed to be taken into account for comprehensively considering network properties. However, as we demonstrate in this paper, these measurements are nonlinear correlated with each other in general, resulting in a wide variety of redundant measurements which unintentionally explain the same aspects of network properties. To solve this problem, we adopt supervised nonlinear dimensionality reduction (NDR) to eliminate the nonlinear redundancy and visualize networks in a low-dimensional projection space. Though unsupervised NDR can achieve the same aim, we illustrate that supervised NDR is more appropriate than unsupervised NDR for discrimination task. After that, we perform Bayesian classifier (BC) in the projection space to discriminate the unknown network by considering the projection score vectors as the input of the classifier. We also demonstrate the feasibility and effectivity of this proposed method in six extensive research real networks, ranging from technological to social or biological. Moreover, the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed method is proved by the contrast experiments with the existing method.

  9. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well.

  10. Bayesian blind source separation for data with network structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illner, Katrin; Fuchs, Christiane; Theis, Fabian J

    2014-11-01

    In biology, more and more information about the interactions in regulatory systems becomes accessible, and this often leads to prior knowledge for recent data interpretations. In this work we focus on multivariate signaling data, where the structure of the data is induced by a known regulatory network. To extract signals of interest we assume a blind source separation (BSS) model, and we capture the structure of the source signals in terms of a Bayesian network. To keep the parameter space small, we consider stationary signals, and we introduce the new algorithm emGrade, where model parameters and source signals are estimated using expectation maximization. For network data, we find an improved estimation performance compared to other BSS algorithms, and the flexible Bayesian modeling enables us to deal with repeated and missing observation values. The main advantage of our method is the statistically interpretable likelihood, and we can use model selection criteria to determine the (in general unknown) number of source signals or decide between different given networks. In simulations we demonstrate the recovery of the source signals dependent on the graph structure and the dimensionality of the data.

  11. High-throughput Bayesian Network Learning using Heterogeneous Multicore Computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linderman, Michael D; Athalye, Vivek; Meng, Teresa H; Asadi, Narges Bani; Bruggner, Robert; Nolan, Garry P

    2010-06-01

    Aberrant intracellular signaling plays an important role in many diseases. The causal structure of signal transduction networks can be modeled as Bayesian Networks (BNs), and computationally learned from experimental data. However, learning the structure of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an NP-hard problem that, even with fast heuristics, is too time consuming for large, clinically important networks (20-50 nodes). In this paper, we present a novel graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated implementation of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain-based algorithm for learning BNs that is up to 7.5-fold faster than current general-purpose processor (GPP)-based implementations. The GPU-based implementation is just one of several implementations within the larger application, each optimized for a different input or machine configuration. We describe the methodology we use to build an extensible application, assembled from these variants, that can target a broad range of heterogeneous systems, e.g., GPUs, multicore GPPs. Specifically we show how we use the Merge programming model to efficiently integrate, test and intelligently select among the different potential implementations.

  12. A Bayesian Network Approach to Modeling Learning Progressions and Task Performance. CRESST Report 776

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Patti; Rutstein, Daisy Wise; Mislevy, Robert J.; Liu, Junhui; Choi, Younyoung; Levy, Roy; Crawford, Aaron; DiCerbo, Kristen E.; Chappel, Kristina; Behrens, John T.

    2010-01-01

    A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

  13. Bayesian Network Structure Learning Based On Rough Set and Mutual Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhong Feng

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In Bayesian network structure learning for incomplete data set, a common problem is too many attributes causing low efficiency and high computation complexity. In this paper, an algorithm of attribute reduction based on rough set is introduced. The algorithm can effectively reduce the dimension of attributes and quickly determine the network structure using mutual information for Bayesian network structure learning.

  14. Coordinated Decision Optimization Based on Hiberarchy Discrete Dynamic Bayesian Network%基于多层递推离散动态贝叶斯网络的协同决策优化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐政; 高晓光; 孙超

    2011-01-01

    Based on the hiberarchy characteristic of the coordinated use between electronic countermeasure and fire attack, the hiberarchy discrete dynamic bayesian network coordinated decision model is established. Then, estate transition probability is confirmed according to the coordinated degree between electronic countermeasure and fire attack. Furthermore, the forward and back algorithm is proposed to solve the coordinated decision problem. Finally, the simulation result shows that the proposed method can reduce the communication transmission, shorten decision time, and enhance the decision adaptability on dynamic and uncertainty condition greatly.%根据电子对抗与火力打击协同使用分层递阶控制的特点,建立基于多层递推离散动态贝叶斯网络协同使用决策模型.依据协同理论,引入协同度概念,用协同度作为确定电子对抗与火力打击协同使用决策随时间变化的状态转移概率的依据.提出前向后向递归搜索算法,求解电子对抗与火力打击协同使用决策问题.通过仿真实验证明,该方法能够减少信息传输,缩短决策时间,大大增强动态不确定条件下决策的适应性.

  15. 基于动态贝叶斯网络的交通灯自主智能决策%Traffic lights intelligent decision independently based on dynamic bayesian network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈海洋; 聂弘颖; 潘金波

    2014-01-01

    现有交通灯大都采用定时控制,容易造成时间上的浪费甚至是交通堵塞,通过引入动态贝叶斯网络DBN ,分析影响交通灯时间的因素,建立具有星型结构的交通灯自主智能决策模型。该模型能够依据十字路口车辆的动态信息,实时决策交通灯的时间,并通过仿真验证了该模型能够自主决策出最佳的交通灯时间,实现了交通管理的智能化。%Existing traffic lights are mostly using the timing control ,easily lead to the waste of time and e-ven traffic jams ,for this a traffic light with star structure independent intelligent decision model is pres-ented .By introducing dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) ,analyzing the main factors influencing the traf-fic light time ,traffic lights with star structure decision model is established ,and the model can make deci-sion real-time basis for crossing traffic lights according to the vehicle′s dynamic information .The simula-tion verifies the model can decide the best traffic time for the intersection ,and realize the intelligent traf-fic management .

  16. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders Læsø; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions...

  17. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions...

  18. Bayesian Estimation of Categorical Dynamic Factor Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong; Nesselroade, John R.

    2007-01-01

    Dynamic factor models have been used to analyze continuous time series behavioral data. We extend 2 main dynamic factor model variations--the direct autoregressive factor score (DAFS) model and the white noise factor score (WNFS) model--to categorical DAFS and WNFS models in the framework of the underlying variable method and illustrate them with…

  19. Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection

  20. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MohammadRahim Ramezanian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios..

  1. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.

  2. Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keselman, Dmitry [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Tompkins, George H [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.

  3. Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingpeng Zhou

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The received signal strength (RSS-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision’s randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

  4. Online variational Bayesian filtering-based mobile target tracking in wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

    2014-11-11

    The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

  5. Diagnosing Intermittent and Persistent Faults using Static Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megshoel, Ole Jakob

    2010-01-01

    Both intermittent and persistent faults may occur in a wide range of systems. We present in this paper the introduction of intermittent fault handling techniques into ProDiagnose, an algorithm that previously only handled persistent faults. We discuss novel algorithmic techniques as well as how our static Bayesian networks help diagnose, in an integrated manner, a range of intermittent and persistent faults. Through experiments with data from the ADAPT electrical power system test bed, generated as part of the Second International Diagnostic Competition (DXC-10), we show that this novel variant of ProDiagnose diagnoses intermittent faults accurately and quickly, while maintaining strong performance on persistent faults.

  6. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...... to update the models, and hereby a better basis for decision making is obtained. An application example shows how a Bayesian network model can be used as a tool for updating the model and assist in risk-based decision making....

  7. A Bayesian Network View on Nested Effects Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fröhlich Holger

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Nested effects models (NEMs are a class of probabilistic models that were designed to reconstruct a hidden signalling structure from a large set of observable effects caused by active interventions into the signalling pathway. We give a more flexible formulation of NEMs in the language of Bayesian networks. Our framework constitutes a natural generalization of the original NEM model, since it explicitly states the assumptions that are tacitly underlying the original version. Our approach gives rise to new learning methods for NEMs, which have been implemented in the /Bioconductor package nem. We validate these methods in a simulation study and apply them to a synthetic lethality dataset in yeast.

  8. Learning Continuous Time Bayesian Network Classifiers Using MapReduce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Villa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Parameter and structural learning on continuous time Bayesian network classifiers are challenging tasks when you are dealing with big data. This paper describes an efficient scalable parallel algorithm for parameter and structural learning in the case of complete data using the MapReduce framework. Two popular instances of classifiers are analyzed, namely the continuous time naive Bayes and the continuous time tree augmented naive Bayes. Details of the proposed algorithm are presented using Hadoop, an open-source implementation of a distributed file system and the MapReduce framework for distributed data processing. Performance evaluation of the designed algorithm shows a robust parallel scaling.

  9. Probe Error Modeling Research Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Huaiqiang; Xing Zilong; Zhang Jian; Yan Yan

    2015-01-01

    Probe calibration is carried out under specific conditions; most of the error caused by the change of speed parameter has not been corrected. In order to reduce the measuring error influence on measurement accuracy, this article analyzes the relationship between speed parameter and probe error, and use Bayesian network to establish the model of probe error. Model takes account of prior knowledge and sample data, with the updating of data, which can reflect the change of the errors of the probe and constantly revised modeling results.

  10. Refinement of Bayesian Network Structures upon New Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Pacekajus, Saulius

    2010-01-01

    Refinement of Bayesian network (BN) structures using new data becomes more and more relevant. Some work has been done there; however, one problem has not been considered yet – what to do when new data have fewer or more attributes than the existing model. In both cases, data contain important...... knowledge and every effort must be made in order to extract it. In this paper, we propose a general merging algorithm to deal with situations when new data have different set of attributes. The merging algorithm updates sufficient statistics when new data are received. It expands the flexibility of BN...

  11. Evolution in Mind: Evolutionary Dynamics, Cognitive Processes, and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchow, Jordan W; Bourgin, David D; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2017-07-01

    Evolutionary theory describes the dynamics of population change in settings affected by reproduction, selection, mutation, and drift. In the context of human cognition, evolutionary theory is most often invoked to explain the origins of capacities such as language, metacognition, and spatial reasoning, framing them as functional adaptations to an ancestral environment. However, evolutionary theory is useful for understanding the mind in a second way: as a mathematical framework for describing evolving populations of thoughts, ideas, and memories within a single mind. In fact, deep correspondences exist between the mathematics of evolution and of learning, with perhaps the deepest being an equivalence between certain evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian inference. This equivalence permits reinterpretation of evolutionary processes as algorithms for Bayesian inference and has relevance for understanding diverse cognitive capacities, including memory and creativity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Congested Link Inference Algorithms in Dynamic Routing IP Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance descending of current congested link inference algorithms is obviously in dynamic routing IP network, such as the most classical algorithm CLINK. To overcome this problem, based on the assumptions of Markov property and time homogeneity, we build a kind of Variable Structure Discrete Dynamic Bayesian (VSDDB network simplified model of dynamic routing IP network. Under the simplified VSDDB model, based on the Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (BMAP and Rest Bayesian Network Model (RBNM, we proposed an Improved CLINK (ICLINK algorithm. Considering the concurrent phenomenon of multiple link congestion usually happens, we also proposed algorithm CLILRS (Congested Link Inference algorithm based on Lagrangian Relaxation Subgradient to infer the set of congested links. We validated our results by the experiments of analogy, simulation, and actual Internet.

  13. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model.

  14. Precise Network Modeling of Systems Genetics Data Using the Bayesian Network Webserver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Cui, Yan

    2017-01-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW, http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW ) is an integrated platform for Bayesian network modeling of biological datasets. It provides a web-based network modeling environment that seamlessly integrates advanced algorithms for probabilistic causal modeling and reasoning with Bayesian networks. BNW is designed for precise modeling of relatively small networks that contain less than 20 nodes. The structure learning algorithms used by BNW guarantee the discovery of the best (most probable) network structure given the data. To facilitate network modeling across multiple biological levels, BNW provides a very flexible interface that allows users to assign network nodes into different tiers and define the relationships between and within the tiers. This function is particularly useful for modeling systems genetics datasets that often consist of multiscalar heterogeneous genotype-to-phenotype data. BNW enables users to, within seconds or minutes, go from having a simply formatted input file containing a dataset to using a network model to make predictions about the interactions between variables and the potential effects of experimental interventions. In this chapter, we will introduce the functions of BNW and show how to model systems genetics datasets with BNW.

  15. Efficient Bayesian Learning in Social Networks with Gaussian Estimators

    CERN Document Server

    Mossel, Elchanan

    2010-01-01

    We propose a simple and efficient Bayesian model of iterative learning on social networks. This model is efficient in two senses: the process both results in an optimal belief, and can be carried out with modest computational resources for large networks. This result extends Condorcet's Jury Theorem to general social networks, while preserving rationality and computational feasibility. The model consists of a group of agents who belong to a social network, so that a pair of agents can observe each other's actions only if they are neighbors. We assume that the network is connected and that the agents have full knowledge of the structure of the network. The agents try to estimate some state of the world S (say, the price of oil a year from today). Each agent has a private measurement of S. This is modeled, for agent v, by a number S_v picked from a Gaussian distribution with mean S and standard deviation one. Accordingly, agent v's prior belief regarding S is a normal distribution with mean S_v and standard dev...

  16. Dynamic Network Models

    CERN Document Server

    Armbruster, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    We analyze random networks that change over time. First we analyze a dynamic Erdos-Renyi model, whose edges change over time. We describe its stationary distribution, its convergence thereto, and the SI contact process on the network, which has relevance for connectivity and the spread of infections. Second, we analyze the effect of node turnover, when nodes enter and leave the network, which has relevance for network models incorporating births, deaths, aging, and other demographic factors.

  17. Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kathleen E.; Adams, Peter N.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Brenner, Owen T.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate.

  18. Reconstruction of Gene Regulatory Networks Based on Two-Stage Bayesian Network Structure Learning Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gui-xia Liu; Wei Feng; Han Wang; Lei Liu; Chun-guang Zhou

    2009-01-01

    In the post-genomic biology era, the reconstruction of gene regulatory networks from microarray gene expression data is very important to understand the underlying biological system, and it has been a challenging task in bioinformatics. The Bayesian network model has been used in reconstructing the gene regulatory network for its advantages, but how to determine the network structure and parameters is still important to be explored. This paper proposes a two-stage structure learning algorithm which integrates immune evolution algorithm to build a Bayesian network .The new algorithm is evaluated with the use of both simulated and yeast cell cycle data. The experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm can find many of the known real regulatory relationships from literature and predict the others unknown with high validity and accuracy.

  19. Assessment of debris flow hazards using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Wan-jie; Zhuang, Da-fang; Jiang, Dong; Pan, Jian-jun; Ren, Hong-yan

    2012-10-01

    Comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazard risk is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainties of various related factors. A reasonable and reliable assessment should be based on sufficient data and realistic approaches. This study presents a novel approach for assessing debris flow hazard risk using BN (Bayesian Network) and domain knowledge. Based on the records of debris flow hazards and geomorphological/environmental data for the Chinese mainland, approaches based on BN, SVM (Support Vector Machine) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) were compared. BN provided the highest values of hazard detection probability, precision, and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve). The BN model is useful for mapping and assessing debris flow hazard risk on a national scale.

  20. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  1. An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

    2006-01-01

    Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

  2. A Comparison of General Diagnostic Models (GDM) and Bayesian Networks Using a Middle School Mathematics Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    General diagnostic models (GDMs) and Bayesian networks are mathematical frameworks that cover a wide variety of psychometric models. Both extend latent class models, and while GDMs also extend item response theory (IRT) models, Bayesian networks can be parameterized using discretized IRT. The purpose of this study is to examine similarities and…

  3. An empirical Bayesian approach for model-based inference of cellular signaling networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klinke David J

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A common challenge in systems biology is to infer mechanistic descriptions of biological process given limited observations of a biological system. Mathematical models are frequently used to represent a belief about the causal relationships among proteins within a signaling network. Bayesian methods provide an attractive framework for inferring the validity of those beliefs in the context of the available data. However, efficient sampling of high-dimensional parameter space and appropriate convergence criteria provide barriers for implementing an empirical Bayesian approach. The objective of this study was to apply an Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to a typical study of cellular signaling pathways. Results As an illustrative example, a kinetic model for the early signaling events associated with the epidermal growth factor (EGF signaling network was calibrated against dynamic measurements observed in primary rat hepatocytes. A convergence criterion, based upon the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, was applied to the model predictions. The posterior distributions of the parameters exhibited complicated structure, including significant covariance between specific parameters and a broad range of variance among the parameters. The model predictions, in contrast, were narrowly distributed and were used to identify areas of agreement among a collection of experimental studies. Conclusion In summary, an empirical Bayesian approach was developed for inferring the confidence that one can place in a particular model that describes signal transduction mechanisms and for inferring inconsistencies in experimental measurements.

  4. A Bayesian Algorithm for Functional Mapping of Dynamic Complex Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongling Wu

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Functional mapping of dynamic traits measured in a longitudinal study was originally derived within the maximum likelihood (ML context and implemented with the EM algorithm. Although ML-based functional mapping possesses many favorable statistical properties in parameter estimation, it may be computationally intractable for analyzing longitudinal data with high dimensions and high measurement errors. In this article, we derive a general functional mapping framework for quantitative trait locus mapping of dynamic traits within the Bayesian paradigm. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques were implemented for functional mapping to estimate biologically and statistically sensible parameters that model the structures of time-dependent genetic effects and covariance matrix. The Bayesian approach is useful to handle difficulties in constructing confidence intervals as well as the identifiability problem, enhancing the statistical inference of functional mapping. We have undertaken simulation studies to investigate the statistical behavior of Bayesian-based functional mapping and used a real example with F2 mice to validate the utilization and usefulness of the model.

  5. Bayesian Diagnostic Network: A Powerful Model for Representation and Reasoning of Engineering Diagnostic Knowledge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Zhao-yong

    2005-01-01

    Engineering diagnosis is essential to the operation of industrial equipment. The key to successful diagnosis is correct knowledge representation and reasoning. The Bayesian network is a powerful tool for it. This paper utilizes the Bayesian network to represent and reason diagnostic knowledge, named Bayesian diagnostic network. It provides a three-layer topologic structure based on operating conditions, possible faults and corresponding symptoms. The paper also discusses an approximate stochastic sampling algorithm. Then a practical Bayesian network for gas turbine diagnosis is constructed on a platform developed under a Visual C++ environment. It shows that the Bayesian network is a powerful model for representation and reasoning of diagnostic knowledge. The three-layer structure and the approximate algorithm are effective also.

  6. Assimilation Dynamic Network (ADN) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Assimilation Dynamic Network (ADN) is a dynamic inter-processor communication network that spans heterogeneous processor architectures, unifying components,...

  7. THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF THE CROSS-BORDER HOT MONEY---An Approach of Dynamic Bayesian Network%跨境热钱的传导机制*--基于动态贝叶斯网络模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史芳芳; 任小勋

    2016-01-01

    本文将动态贝叶斯网络模型引入到对我国跨境热钱问题的分析中,运用2006年10月至2016年2月的数据研究了我国跨境热钱与外汇市场、房地产市场、股票市场以及货币市场之间的网络传导关系。结果表明:一方面,我国跨境热钱流动的主要原因是受房地产市场与境内外利差的驱动;另一方面,跨境热钱对我国房地产市场的影响最为显著,其次是外汇市场,但并不会显著影响股票市场和货币市场。本文从研究问题、对象和方法等角度进一步丰富了现有相关文献,有助于更全面地认识我国跨境热钱流动的市场反应机制,对相关部门采取前瞻性的调控措施有所启示。%This paper employs the dynamic Bayesian network method to the problem of cross-border hot money. Based on the sample from October 2006 to February 2015,we analyze the network relationship among the hot money and the four finance markets of foreign exchange market,real estate market,stock market and money market. The results show that cross-border hot money is significantly attracted by the real estate market and the interest rate spread. The real estate market can be mostly affected by hot mon-ey,exchange rate can also be affected,but the hot money has no impact on the stock market and money market. The research point,method and obj ect of this paper enrich the existing literatures. The findings can help to understand the effect mechanism of cross-border hot money,and may be used for reference to policy-makers.

  8. Airborne Network Optimization with Dynamic Network Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    AIRBORNE NETWORK OPTIMIZATION WITH DYNAMIC NETWORK UPDATE THESIS Bradly S. Paul, Capt, USAF AFIT-ENG-MS-15-M-030 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR...to copyright protection in the United States. AFIT-ENG-MS-15-M-030 AIRBORNE NETWORK OPTIMIZATION WITH DYNAMIC NETWORK UPDATE THESIS Presented to the...NETWORK OPTIMIZATION WITH DYNAMIC NETWORK UPDATE Bradly S. Paul, B.S.C.P. Capt, USAF Committee Membership: Maj Thomas E. Dube Chair Dr. Kenneth M. Hopkinson

  9. Network-behavior dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veenstra, René; Dijkstra, Jan; Steglich, Christian; Van Zalk, Maarten H. W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have become increasingly interested in disentangling selection and influence processes. This literature review provides context for the special issue on network-behavior dynamics. It brings together important conceptual, methodological, and empirical contributions focusing on longitudina

  10. Quantifying Uncertainty in Brain Network Measures using Bayesian Connectomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald Johannes Janssen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The wiring diagram of the human brain can be described in terms of graph measures that characterize structural regularities. These measures require an estimate of whole-brain structural connectivity for which one may resort to deterministic or thresholded probabilistic streamlining procedures. While these procedures have provided important insights about the characteristics of human brain networks, they ultimately rely on unwarranted assumptions such as those of noise-free data or the use of an arbitrary threshold. Therefore, resulting structural connectivity estimates as well as derived graph measures fail to fully take into account the inherent uncertainty in the structural estimate.In this paper, we illustrate an easy way of obtaining posterior distributions over graph metrics using Bayesian inference. It is shown that this posterior distribution can be used to quantify uncertainty about graph-theoretical measures at the single subject level, thereby providing a more nuanced view of the graph-theoretical properties of human brain connectivity. We refer to this model-based approach to connectivity analysis as Bayesian connectomics.

  11. MODELING INFORMATION SYSTEM AVAILABILITY BY USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semir Ibrahimović

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information systems are expected to be always-on by providing services to end-users, regardless of time and location. This is particularly important for organizations and industries where information systems support real-time operations and mission-critical applications that need to be available on 24  7  365 basis. Examples of such entities include process industries, telecommunications, healthcare, energy, banking, electronic commerce and a variety of cloud services. This article presents a modified Bayesian Belief Network model for predicting information system availability, introduced initially by Franke, U. and Johnson, P. (in article “Availability of enterprise IT systems – an expert based Bayesian model”. Software Quality Journal 20(2, 369-394, 2012 based on a thorough review of several dimensions of the information system availability, we proposed a modified set of determinants. The model is parameterized by using probability elicitation process with the participation of experts from the financial sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model validation was performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

  12. Application of the Bayesian dynamic survival model in medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jianghua; McGee, Daniel L; Niu, Xufeng

    2010-02-10

    The Bayesian dynamic survival model (BDSM), a time-varying coefficient survival model from the Bayesian prospective, was proposed in early 1990s but has not been widely used or discussed. In this paper, we describe the model structure of the BDSM and introduce two estimation approaches for BDSMs: the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and the linear Bayesian (LB) method. The MCMC approach estimates model parameters through sampling and is computationally intensive. With the newly developed geoadditive survival models and software BayesX, the BDSM is available for general applications. The LB approach is easier in terms of computations but it requires the prespecification of some unknown smoothing parameters. In a simulation study, we use the LB approach to show the effects of smoothing parameters on the performance of the BDSM and propose an ad hoc method for identifying appropriate values for those parameters. We also demonstrate the performance of the MCMC approach compared with the LB approach and a penalized partial likelihood method available in software R packages. A gastric cancer trial is utilized to illustrate the application of the BDSM.

  13. Remotely Sensed Monitoring of Small Reservoir Dynamics: A Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Eilander

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multipurpose small reservoirs are important for livelihoods in rural semi-arid regions. To manage and plan these reservoirs and to assess their hydrological impact at a river basin scale, it is important to monitor their water storage dynamics. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for monitoring small reservoirs with radar satellite images. The newly developed growing Bayesian classifier has a high degree of automation, can readily be extended with auxiliary information and reduces the confusion error to the land-water boundary pixels. A case study has been performed in the Upper East Region of Ghana, based on Radarsat-2 data from November 2012 until April 2013. Results show that the growing Bayesian classifier can deal with the spatial and temporal variability in synthetic aperture radar (SAR backscatter intensities from small reservoirs. Due to its ability to incorporate auxiliary information, the algorithm is able to delineate open water from SAR imagery with a low land-water contrast in the case of wind-induced Bragg scattering or limited vegetation on the land surrounding a small reservoir.

  14. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2014-01-01

    In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

  15. Assessing Requirements Volatility and Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Michael S.

    2010-01-01

    There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle and the risk that volatility imparts. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors can increase programmatic risk and adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.

  16. Safety Analysis of Liquid Rocket Engine Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hua-wei; YAN Zhi-qiang

    2007-01-01

    Safety analysis for liquid rocket engine has a great meaning for shortening development cycle, saving development expenditure and reducing development risk. The relationship between the structure and component of liquid rocket engine is much more complex, furthermore test data are absent in development phase. Thereby, the uncertainties exist in safety analysis for liquid rocket engine. A safety analysis model integrated with FMEA(failure mode and effect analysis)based on Bayesian networks (BN) is brought forward for liquid rocket engine, which can combine qualitative analysis with quantitative decision. The method has the advantages of fusing multi-information, saving sample amount and having high veracity. An example shows that the method is efficient.

  17. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jia; Zhang, Jianqiu(Michelle); Qi, Yuan(Alan); Chen, Yidong; Huang, Yufei

    2010-12-01

    The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs) based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM) is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) status and Estrogen Receptor negative ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) status, respectively.

  18. The neighborhood MCMC sampler for learning Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Salem A.; Azad, A. K. M.; Keith, Jonathan M.

    2016-07-01

    Getting stuck in local maxima is a problem that arises while learning Bayesian networks (BNs) structures. In this paper, we studied a recently proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, called the Neighbourhood sampler (NS), and examined how efficiently it can sample BNs when local maxima are present. We assume that a posterior distribution f(N,E|D) has been defined, where D represents data relevant to the inference, N and E are the sets of nodes and directed edges, respectively. We illustrate the new approach by sampling from such a distribution, and inferring BNs. The simulations conducted in this paper show that the new learning approach substantially avoids getting stuck in local modes of the distribution, and achieves a more rapid rate of convergence, compared to other common algorithms e.g. the MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

  19. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J E

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed.

  20. Japanese Dairy Cattle Productivity Analysis using Bayesian Network Model (BNM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqbal Ahmed

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Japanese Dairy Cattle Productivity Analysis is carried out based on Bayesian Network Model (BNM. Through the experiment with 280 Japanese anestrus Holstein dairy cow, it is found that the estimation for finding out the presence of estrous cycle using BNM represents almost 55% accuracy while considering all samples. On the contrary, almost 73% accurate estimation could be achieved while using suspended likelihood in sample datasets. Moreover, while the proposed BNM model have more confidence then the estimation accuracy is lies in between 93 to 100%. In addition, this research also reveals the optimum factors to find out the presence of estrous cycle among the 270 individual dairy cows. The objective estimation methods using BNM definitely lead a unique idea to overcome the error of subjective estimation of having estrous cycle among these Japanese dairy cattle.

  1. CEO Emotional Intelligence and Firms’ Financial Policies. Bayesian Network Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Ali Azouzi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of firms’ financial policies according to the manager’s psychological characteristics. More specifically, it examines the links between emotional intelligence, decision biases and the effectiveness of firms’ financial policies. The article finds that the main cause of an organization’s problems is the CEO’s emotional intelligence level. We introduce an approach based on Bayesian network techniques with a series of semi-directive interviews. The research paper represents an original approach because it characterizes behavioral corporate policy choices in emerging markets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the Tunisian context to explore this area of research. Our results show that Tunisian leaders adjust their decisions (on investments and distributions to minimize the risk of loss of compensation or reputation. They opt for decisions that minimize agency costs, transaction costs, and cognitive costs.

  2. Models for Prediction, Explanation and Control: Recursive Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Casini

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Recursive Bayesian Net (RBN formalism was originally developed for modelling nested causal relationships. In this paper we argue that the formalism can also be applied to modelling the hierarchical structure of mechanisms. The resulting network contains quantitative information about probabilities, as well as qualitative information about mechanistic structure and causal relations. Since information about probabilities, mechanisms and causal relations is vital for prediction, explanation and control respectively, an RBN can be applied to all these tasks. We show in particular how a simple two-level RBN can be used to model a mechanism in cancer science. The higher level of our model contains variables at the clinical level, while the lower level maps the structure of the cell's mechanism for apoptosis.

  3. Inference-less Density Estimation using Copula Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Elidan, Gal

    2012-01-01

    We consider learning continuous probabilistic graphical models in the face of missing data. For non-Gaussian models, learning the parameters and structure of such models depends on our ability to perform efficient inference, and can be prohibitive even for relatively modest domains. Recently, we introduced the Copula Bayesian Network (CBN) density model - a flexible framework that captures complex high-dimensional dependency structures while offering direct control over the univariate marginals, leading to improved generalization. In this work we show that the CBN model also offers significant computational advantages when training data is partially observed. Concretely, we leverage on the specialized form of the model to derive a computationally amenable learning objective that is a lower bound on the log-likelihood function. Importantly, our energy-like bound circumvents the need for costly inference of an auxiliary distribution, thus facilitating practical learning of highdimensional densities. We demonstr...

  4. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan(Alan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ( status and Estrogen Receptor negative ( status, respectively.

  5. Bayesian analysis of the dynamic structure in China's economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo

    2008-11-01

    To analyze the dynamic structure in China's economic growth during the period 1952-1998, we introduce a model of the aggregate production function for the Chinese economy that considers total factor productivity (TFP) and output elasticities as time-varying parameters. Specifically, this paper is concerned with the relationship between the rate of economic growth in China and the trend in TFP. Here, we consider the time-varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors to construct a set of Bayesian linear models for parameter estimation. The results of the estimation are in agreement with the movements in China's social economy, thus illustrating the validity of the proposed methods.

  6. Prediction of vehicle traffic accidents using Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Shamseddin Alizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Every year, thousands of vehicle accidents occur in Iran and result thousands of deaths, injuries and material damage in country. Various factors such as driver characteristics, road characteristics, vehicle characteristics and atmospheric conditions affect the injuries severity of these accidents. In order to reduce the number and severity of these accidents, their analysis and prediction is essential. Currently, the accidents related data are collected which can be used to predict and prevent them. New technologies have enabled humans to collect the large volume of data in continuous and regular ways. One of these methods is to use Bayesian networks. Using the literature review, in this study a new method for analysis and prediction of vehicle traffic accidents is presented. These networks can be used for classification of traffic accidents, hazardous locations of roads and factors affecting accidents severity. Using of the results of the analysis of these networks will help to reduce the number of accidents and their severity. In addition, we can use the results of this analysis for developing of safety regulations.

  7. Exact Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks with Less Space

    CERN Document Server

    Parviainen, Pekka

    2012-01-01

    The fastest known exact algorithms for scorebased structure discovery in Bayesian networks on n nodes run in time and space 2nnO(1). The usage of these algorithms is limited to networks on at most around 25 nodes mainly due to the space requirement. Here, we study space-time tradeoffs for finding an optimal network structure. When little space is available, we apply the Gurevich-Shelah recurrence-originally proposed for the Hamiltonian path problem-and obtain time 22n-snO(1) in space 2snO(1) for any s = n/2, n/4, n/8, . . .; we assume the indegree of each node is bounded by a constant. For the more practical setting with moderate amounts of space, we present a novel scheme. It yields running time 2n(3/2)pnO(1) in space 2n(3/4)pnO(1) for any p = 0, 1, . . ., n/2; these bounds hold as long as the indegrees are at most 0.238n. Furthermore, the latter scheme allows easy and efficient parallelization beyond previous algorithms. We also explore empirically the potential of the presented techniques.

  8. Gait recognition based on dynamic & static information fusion and dynamic bayesian network%动静态信息融合及动态贝叶斯网络的步态识别

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨旗; 薛定宇

    2012-01-01

    Gait is an important biological characteristics in the long distance video surveillance field. Nowadays, almost all gait recognition researcher focus on gait recognition only under one single condition. However, the gait recognition rate rapidly decline in blended conditions, for example when somebody is wearing a coat or carrying a bag. Based on our analysis of the gait timing characteristics during the human movements, we propose a new gait recognition approach that expresses dynamic information and static information by using a dynamic Bayesian networw (DSIF - DBN). The DSIF - DBN contains three levels of states and for every time slice of the DSIF - DBN model is expressed by the fusion of dynamic information and static information . This model can exectly express the timing characteristics of the gait, which are the body posture and the range of motion, as well as other gait rhythmic change characteristics. Experimental result show that the DSIF - DBN model recognizes gait with high rates and good robustness to noise and lost of information. The DSIF - DBN model can fuse the dynamic information as well as static information and can greatly reduce the impact of gait recognition rates when somebody is wearing a coat or carrying a bag.%步态是远距离视频监控领域最具潜力的生物特征.目前对步态的识别研究大都是考虑单一条件下步态的识别率,但在穿外套、背包等混合条件下识别率较低,通过分析人体行走时步态的时序特征,提出一种基于动静态信息相结合的多信息融合的动态贝叶斯网络( DSIF-DBN).模型含有3层状态,模型中每个时间片都为静态信息和动态信息的融合.此模型能很好地表达步态的时序特性,即步态行走时人体姿态,运动幅度等特征的节奏性变化.实验结果表明该方法有较高的识别率,能有机地融合步态的静态信息及动态信息,并且在有噪声及信息缺失的情况下有较好的鲁棒性,大大降低

  9. Anomaly Detection in Dynamic Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, Melissa [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-10-14

    Anomaly detection in dynamic communication networks has many important security applications. These networks can be extremely large and so detecting any changes in their structure can be computationally challenging; hence, computationally fast, parallelisable methods for monitoring the network are paramount. For this reason the methods presented here use independent node and edge based models to detect locally anomalous substructures within communication networks. As a first stage, the aim is to detect changes in the data streams arising from node or edge communications. Throughout the thesis simple, conjugate Bayesian models for counting processes are used to model these data streams. A second stage of analysis can then be performed on a much reduced subset of the network comprising nodes and edges which have been identified as potentially anomalous in the first stage. The first method assumes communications in a network arise from an inhomogeneous Poisson process with piecewise constant intensity. Anomaly detection is then treated as a changepoint problem on the intensities. The changepoint model is extended to incorporate seasonal behavior inherent in communication networks. This seasonal behavior is also viewed as a changepoint problem acting on a piecewise constant Poisson process. In a static time frame, inference is made on this extended model via a Gibbs sampling strategy. In a sequential time frame, where the data arrive as a stream, a novel, fast Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is introduced to sample from the sequence of posterior distributions of the change points over time. A second method is considered for monitoring communications in a large scale computer network. The usage patterns in these types of networks are very bursty in nature and don’t fit a Poisson process model. For tractable inference, discrete time models are considered, where the data are aggregated into discrete time periods and probability models are fitted to the

  10. PedExpert: a computer program for the application of Bayesian networks to human paternity testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, R R; Campos, S V A; Pena, S D J

    2009-01-01

    PedExpert is a Windows-based Bayesian network software, especially constructed to solve problems in parentage testing that are complex because of missing genetic information on the alleged father and/or because they involve genetic mutations. PedExpert automates the creation and manipulation of Bayesian networks, implementing algorithms that convert pedigrees and sets of indispensable information (genotypes, allele frequencies, mutation rates) into Bayesian networks. This program has a novel feature that can incorporate information about gene mutations into tables of conditional probabilities of transmission of alleles from the alleged father to the child, without adding new nodes to the network. This permits using the same Bayesian network in different modes, for analysis of cases that include mutations or not. PedExpert is user-friendly and greatly reduces the time of analysis for complex cases of paternity testing, eliminating most sources of logical and operational error.

  11. Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

  12. Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  13. Enhancing debris flow modeling parameters integrating Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, C.; Stoffel, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2009-04-01

    Applied debris-flow modeling requires suitably constraint input parameter sets. Depending on the used model, there is a series of parameters to define before running the model. Normally, the data base describing the event, the initiation conditions, the flow behavior, the deposition process and mainly the potential range of possible debris flow events in a certain torrent is limited. There are only some scarce places in the world, where we fortunately can find valuable data sets describing event history of debris flow channels delivering information on spatial and temporal distribution of former flow paths and deposition zones. Tree-ring records in combination with detailed geomorphic mapping for instance provide such data sets over a long time span. Considering the significant loss potential associated with debris-flow disasters, it is crucial that decisions made in regard to hazard mitigation are based on a consistent assessment of the risks. This in turn necessitates a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modeling of the debris-flow frequencies and intensities, the possible run out extent, as well as the estimations of the damage potential. In this study, we link a Bayesian network to a Geographic Information System in order to assess debris-flow risk. We identify the major sources of uncertainty and show the potential of Bayesian inference techniques to improve the debris-flow model. We model the flow paths and deposition zones of a highly active debris-flow channel in the Swiss Alps using the numerical 2-D model RAMMS. Because uncertainties in run-out areas cause large changes in risk estimations, we use the data of flow path and deposition zone information of reconstructed debris-flow events derived from dendrogeomorphological analysis covering more than 400 years to update the input parameters of the RAMMS model. The probabilistic model, which consistently incorporates this available information, can serve as a basis for spatial risk

  14. Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Al-Lozi, Rawan; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Naqa, Issam El

    2011-01-01

    Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins’ role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which is comprised of clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogenous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients. PMID:21335651

  15. A Bayesian Belief Network of Threat Anticipation and Terrorist Motivations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Allgood, Glenn O [ORNL; Davenport, Kristen M [ORNL; Schryver, Jack C [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for anticipating the threat posed by terrorists, whether individual or groups. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, halting an event in process, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. To analyze such components, one must understand various aspects of threat elements like physical assets and their economic and social impacts. To this aim, we developed a three-layer Bayesian belief network (BBN) model that takes into consideration the relative threat of an attack against a particular asset (physical layer) as well as the individual psychology and motivations that would induce a person to either act alone or join a terrorist group and commit terrorist acts (social and economic layers). After researching the many possible motivations to become a terrorist, the main factors are compiled and sorted into categories such as initial and personal indicators, exclusion factors, and predictive behaviors. Assessing such threats requires combining information from disparate data sources most of which involve uncertainties. BBN combines these data in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. The developed BBN model takes into consideration the likelihood and consequence of a threat in order to draw inferences about the risk of a terrorist attack so that mitigation efforts can be optimally deployed. The model is constructed using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of all the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  16. A Bayesian belief network of threat anticipation and terrorist motivations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olama, Mohammed M.; Allgood, Glenn O.; Davenport, Kristen M.; Schryver, Jack C.

    2010-04-01

    Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for anticipating the threat posed by terrorists, whether individual or groups. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, halting an event in process, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. To analyze such components, one must understand various aspects of threat elements like physical assets and their economic and social impacts. To this aim, we developed a three-layer Bayesian belief network (BBN) model that takes into consideration the relative threat of an attack against a particular asset (physical layer) as well as the individual psychology and motivations that would induce a person to either act alone or join a terrorist group and commit terrorist acts (social and economic layers). After researching the many possible motivations to become a terrorist, the main factors are compiled and sorted into categories such as initial and personal indicators, exclusion factors, and predictive behaviors. Assessing such threats requires combining information from disparate data sources most of which involve uncertainties. BBN combines these data in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. The developed BBN model takes into consideration the likelihood and consequence of a threat in order to draw inferences about the risk of a terrorist attack so that mitigation efforts can be optimally deployed. The model is constructed using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of all the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  17. Modeling community structure and topics in dynamic text networks

    CERN Document Server

    Henry, Teague; Chai, Christine; Owens-Oas, Derek

    2016-01-01

    The last decade has seen great progress in both dynamic network modeling and topic modeling. This paper draws upon both areas to create a Bayesian method that allows topic discovery to inform the latent network model and the network structure to facilitate topic identification. We apply this method to the 467 top political blogs of 2012. Our results find complex community structure within this set of blogs, where community membership depends strongly upon the set of topics in which the blogger is interested.

  18. A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sho Fukuda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks

  19. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......The importance of risk management increases as farmers become more exposed to risk. But risk management is a difficult topic because income risk is the result of the complex interaction of multiple risk factors combined with the effect of an increasing array of possible risk management tools...

  20. Question Generation and Adaptation Using a Bayesian Network of the Learner’s Achievements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wißner, M.; Linnebank, F.; Liem, J.; Bredeweg, B.; André, E.; Lane, H.C.; Yacef, K.; Mostow, J.; Pavlik, P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a domain independent question generation and interaction procedure that automatically generates multiple-choice questions for conceptual models created with Qualitative Reasoning vocabulary. A Bayesian Network is deployed that captures the learning progress based on the answers

  1. Bayesian inversion analysis of nonlinear dynamics in surface heterogeneous reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omori, Toshiaki; Kuwatani, Tatsu; Okamoto, Atsushi; Hukushima, Koji

    2016-09-01

    It is essential to extract nonlinear dynamics from time-series data as an inverse problem in natural sciences. We propose a Bayesian statistical framework for extracting nonlinear dynamics of surface heterogeneous reactions from sparse and noisy observable data. Surface heterogeneous reactions are chemical reactions with conjugation of multiple phases, and they have the intrinsic nonlinearity of their dynamics caused by the effect of surface-area between different phases. We adapt a belief propagation method and an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to partial observation problem, in order to simultaneously estimate the time course of hidden variables and the kinetic parameters underlying dynamics. The proposed belief propagation method is performed by using sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in order to estimate nonlinear dynamical system. Using our proposed method, we show that the rate constants of dissolution and precipitation reactions, which are typical examples of surface heterogeneous reactions, as well as the temporal changes of solid reactants and products, were successfully estimated only from the observable temporal changes in the concentration of the dissolved intermediate product.

  2. Overview of methods of reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks: Boolean and Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frolova A. O.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks is an intensively studied topic in Systems Biology as it reconstructs regulatory interactions between all genes in the genome in the most complete form. The extreme computational complexity of this problem and lack of thorough reviews on reconstruction methods of gene regulatory network is a significant obstacle to further development of this area. In this article the two most common methods for modeling gene regulatory networks are surveyed: Boolean and Bayesian networks. The mathematical description of each method is given, as well as several algorithmic approaches to modeling gene networks using these methods; the complexity of algorithms and the problems that arise during its implementation are also noted.

  3. Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

    2016-12-01

    We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will

  4. Bayesian Networks as a Decision Tool for O&M of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    Costs to operation and maintenance (O&M) of offshore wind turbines are large. This paper presents how influence diagrams can be used to assist in rational decision making for O&M. An influence diagram is a graphical representation of a decision tree based on Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks...... offer efficient Bayesian updating of a damage model when imperfect information from inspections/monitoring is available. The extension to an influence diagram offers the calculation of expected utilities for decision alternatives, and can be used to find the optimal strategy among different alternatives...

  5. Bayesian approaches to reverse engineer cellular systems: a simulation study on nonlinear Gaussian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramoni Marco F

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse engineering cellular networks is currently one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs seem to be particularly suitable for inferring relationships between cellular variables from the analysis of time series measurements of mRNA or protein concentrations. As evaluating inference results on a real dataset is controversial, the use of simulated data has been proposed. However, DBN approaches that use continuous variables, thus avoiding the information loss associated with discretization, have not yet been extensively assessed, and most of the proposed approaches have dealt with linear Gaussian models. Results We propose a generalization of dynamic Gaussian networks to accommodate nonlinear dependencies between variables. As a benchmark dataset to test the new approach, we used data from a mathematical model of cell cycle control in budding yeast that realistically reproduces the complexity of a cellular system. We evaluated the ability of the networks to describe the dynamics of cellular systems and their precision in reconstructing the true underlying causal relationships between variables. We also tested the robustness of the results by analyzing the effect of noise on the data, and the impact of a different sampling time. Conclusion The results confirmed that DBNs with Gaussian models can be effectively exploited for a first level analysis of data from complex cellular systems. The inferred models are parsimonious and have a satisfying goodness of fit. Furthermore, the networks not only offer a phenomenological description of the dynamics of cellular systems, but are also able to suggest hypotheses concerning the causal interactions between variables. The proposed nonlinear generalization of Gaussian models yielded models characterized by a slightly lower goodness of fit than the linear model, but a better ability to recover the true underlying connections between

  6. A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming;

    2010-01-01

    Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight ...

  7. Heterogeneous multimodal biomarkers analysis for Alzheimer's disease via Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yan; Su, Yi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Huang, Shuai

    2016-12-01

    By 2050, it is estimated that the number of worldwide Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients will quadruple from the current number of 36 million, while no proven disease-modifying treatments are available. At present, the underlying disease mechanisms remain under investigation, and recent studies suggest that the disease involves multiple etiological pathways. To better understand the disease and develop treatment strategies, a number of ongoing studies including the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) enroll many study participants and acquire a large number of biomarkers from various modalities including demographic, genotyping, fluid biomarkers, neuroimaging, neuropsychometric test, and clinical assessments. However, a systematic approach that can integrate all the collected data is lacking. The overarching goal of our study is to use machine learning techniques to understand the relationships among different biomarkers and to establish a system-level model that can better describe the interactions among biomarkers and provide superior diagnostic and prognostic information. In this pilot study, we use Bayesian network (BN) to analyze multimodal data from ADNI, including demographics, volumetric MRI, PET, genotypes, and neuropsychometric measurements and demonstrate our approach to have superior prediction accuracy.

  8. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  9. Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

  10. A Tractable Method for Measuring Nanomaterial Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Finbarr; Sheehan, Barry; Mullins, Martin; Bouwmeester, Hans; Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Costa, Anna L.; Das, Rasel; Stone, Vicki; Tofail, Syed A. M.

    2016-11-01

    While control banding has been identified as a suitable framework for the evaluation and the determination of potential human health risks associated with exposure to nanomaterials (NMs), the approach currently lacks any implementation that enjoys widespread support. Large inconsistencies in characterisation data, toxicological measurements and exposure scenarios make it difficult to map and compare the risk associated with NMs based on physicochemical data, concentration and exposure route. Here we demonstrate the use of Bayesian networks as a reliable tool for NM risk estimation. This tool is tractable, accessible and scalable. Most importantly, it captures a broad span of data types, from complete, high quality data sets through to data sets with missing data and/or values with a relatively high spread of probability distribution. The tool is able to learn iteratively in order to further refine forecasts as the quality of data available improves. We demonstrate how this risk measurement approach works on NMs with varying degrees of risk potential, namely, carbon nanotubes, silver and titanium dioxide. The results afford even non-experts an accurate picture of the occupational risk probabilities associated with these NMs and, in doing so, demonstrated how NM risk can be evaluated into a tractable, quantitative risk comparator.

  11. Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Hatta, Zulkarnain Ahmad; Hashim, Intan Hashimah Mohd; Sulong, Jasni; Mahudin, Nor Diana Mohd; Rahman, Shukran Abd; Saad, Zarina Mat

    2014-12-01

    The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

  12. Computing Posterior Probabilities of Structural Features in Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Tian, Jin

    2012-01-01

    We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. Koivisto and Sood (2004) and Koivisto (2006) presented algorithms that can compute the exact marginal posterior probability of a subnetwork, e.g., a single edge, in O(n2n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n2n) total time, assuming that the number of parents per node or the indegree is bounded by a constant. One main drawback of their algorithms is the requirement of a special structure prior that is non uniform and does not respect Markov equivalence. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that can compute the exact posterior probability of a subnetwork in O(3n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n3n) total time. Our algorithm also assumes a bounded indegree but allows general structure priors. We demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm on several data sets with up to 20 variables.

  13. Evidence for single top quark production using Bayesian neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kau, Daekwang [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2007-01-01

    We present results of a search for single top quark production in p$\\bar{p}$ collisions using a dataset of approximately 1 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector. This analysis considers the muon+jets and electron+jets final states and makes use of Bayesian neural networks to separate the expected signals from backgrounds. The observed excess is associated with a p-value of 0.081%, assuming the background-only hypothesis, which corresponds to an excess over background of 3.2 standard deviations for a Gaussian density. The p-value computed using the SM signal cross section of 2.9 pb is 1.6%, corresponding to an expected significance of 2.2 standard deviations. Assuming the observed excess is due to single top production, we measure a single top quark production cross section of σ(p$\\bar{p}$ → tb + X, tqb + X) = 4.4 ± 1.5 pb.

  14. CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarboui Anis

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  15. CEO emotional bias and dividend policy: Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azouzi Mohamed Ali

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper assumes that managers, investors, or both behave irrationally. In addition, even though scholars have investigated behavioral irrationality from three angles, investor sentiment, investor biases and managerial biases, we focus on the relationship between one of the managerial biases, overconfidence and dividend policy. Previous research investigating the relationship between overconfidence and financial decisions has studied investment, financing decisions and firm values. However, there are only a few exceptions to examine how a managerial emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects dividend policies. This stream of research contends whether to distribute dividends or not depends on how managers perceive of the company’s future. I will use Bayesian network method to examine this relation. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its dividend policy choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  16. Trust-Based Security Level Evaluation Using Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houmb, Siv Hilde; Ray, Indrakshi; Ray, Indrajit; Chakraborty, Sudip

    Security is not merely about technical solutions and patching vulnerabilities. Security is about trade-offs and adhering to realistic security needs, employed to support core business processes. Also, modern systems are subject to a highly competitive market, often demanding rapid development cycles, short life-time, short time-to-market, and small budgets. Security evaluation standards, such as ISO 14508 Common Criteria and ISO/IEC 27002, are not adequate for evaluating the security of many modern systems for resource limitations, time-to-market, and other constraints. Towards this end, we propose an alternative time and cost effective approach for evaluating the security level of a security solution, system or part thereof. Our approach relies on collecting information from different sources, who are trusted to varying degrees, and on using a trust measure to aggregate available information when deriving security level. Our approach is quantitative and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) topology, allowing us to reason over uncertain information and seemingly aggregating disparate information. We illustrate our approach by deriving the security level of two alternative Denial of Service (DoS) solutions. Our approach can also be used in the context of security solution trade-off analysis.

  17. Bayesian Model Selection With Network Based Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew eWhalen

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA. To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed.

  18. Application of Bayesian Networks for Estimation of Individual Psychological Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-07-19

    In this paper we apply Bayesian networks for developing more accurate final overall estimations of psychological characteristics of an individual, based on psychological test results. Psychological tests which identify how much an individual possesses a certain factor are very popular and quite common in the modern world. We call this value for a given factor -- the final overall estimation. Examples of factors could be stress resistance, the readiness to take a risk, the ability to concentrate on certain complicated work and many others. An accurate qualitative and comprehensive assessment of human potential is one of the most important challenges in any company or collective. The most common way of studying psychological characteristics of each single person is testing. Psychologists and sociologists are constantly working on improvement of the quality of their tests. Despite serious work, done by psychologists, the questions in tests often do not produce enough feedback due to the use of relatively poor estimation systems. The overall estimation is usually based on personal experiences and the subjective perception of a psychologist or a group of psychologists about the investigated psychological personality factors.

  19. Using multi-step proposal distribution for improved MCMC convergence in Bayesian network structure learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjo, Antti; Lähdesmäki, Harri

    2015-12-01

    Bayesian networks have become popular for modeling probabilistic relationships between entities. As their structure can also be given a causal interpretation about the studied system, they can be used to learn, for example, regulatory relationships of genes or proteins in biological networks and pathways. Inference of the Bayesian network structure is complicated by the size of the model structure space, necessitating the use of optimization methods or sampling techniques, such Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, convergence of MCMC chains is in many cases slow and can become even a harder issue as the dataset size grows. We show here how to improve convergence in the Bayesian network structure space by using an adjustable proposal distribution with the possibility to propose a wide range of steps in the structure space, and demonstrate improved network structure inference by analyzing phosphoprotein data from the human primary T cell signaling network.

  20. A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

  1. A Bayesian Network to Predict Barrier Island Geomorphologic Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, B.; Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Turecek, A.; Stippa, S.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding how barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States respond to storms and sea-level rise is an important management concern. Although these threats are well recognized, quantifying the integrated vulnerability is challenging due to the range of time and space scalesover which these processes act. Developing datasets and methods to identify the physical vulnerabilities of coastal environments due to storms and sea-level rise thus is an important scientific focus that supports land management decision making. Here we employ a Bayesian Network (BN) to model the interactions between geomorphic variables sampled from existing datasets that capture both storm-and sea-level rise related coastal evolution. The BN provides a means of estimating probabilities of changes in specific geomorphic characteristics such as foredune crest height, beach width, beach height, given knowledge of barrier island width, maximum barrier island elevation, distance from an inlet, the presence of anthropogenic modifications, and long-term shoreline change rates, which we assume to be directly related to sea-level rise. We evaluate BN skill and explore how different constraints, such as shoreline change characteristics (eroding, stable, accreting), distance to nearby inlets and island width, affect the probability distributions of future morphological characteristics. Our work demonstrates that a skillful BN can be constructed and that factors such as distance to inlet, shoreline change rate, and the presence of human alterations have the strongest influences on network performance. For Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, we find that different shoreline change behaviors affect the probabilities of specific geomorphic characteristics, such as dune height, which allows us to identify vulnerable locations on the barrier island where habitat or infrastructure may be vulnerable to storms and sea-level rise.

  2. An Anticipatory and Deceptive AI Utilizing Bayesian Belief Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lake, Joe E [ORNL; Allgood, Glenn O [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Saffold, JAy [Research Network, Inc

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. military defines antiterrorism as the defensive posture taken against terrorist threats. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, interdicting an event in progress, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for training our military and homeland security officers for anticipating threats posed by terrorists. These tools need to be easy enough so that they are readily usable without substantial training, but still maintain the complexity to allow for a level of deceptive reasoning on the part of the opponent. To meet this need, we propose to integrate a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for threat anticipation and deceptive reasoning into training simulation environments currently utilized by several organizations within the Department of Defense (DoD). BBNs have the ability to deal with various types of uncertainties; such as identities, capabilities, target attractiveness, and the combinations of the previous. They also allow for disparate types of data to be fused in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. A BBN has been developed by ORNL uses a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of each node with in the broader context of the system development effort as a whole, and not in isolation. The network will be integrated into the Research Network Inc,(RNI) developed Game Distributed Interactive Simulation (GDIS) as a smart artificial intelligence module. GDIS is utilized by several DoD and civilian organizations as a distributed training tool for a multiplicity of reasons. It has garnered several awards for its realism, ease of use, and popularity. One area that it still has room to excel in, as most video training tools do, is in the area of artificial intelligence of opponent combatants. It is believed that by

  3. Bayesian Network Based Fault Prognosis via Bond Graph Modeling of High-Speed Railway Traction Device

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunkai Wu

    2015-01-01

    component-level faults accurately for a high-speed railway traction system, a fault prognosis approach via Bayesian network and bond graph modeling techniques is proposed. The inherent structure of a railway traction system is represented by bond graph model, based on which a multilayer Bayesian network is developed for fault propagation analysis and fault prediction. For complete and incomplete data sets, two different parameter learning algorithms such as Bayesian estimation and expectation maximization (EM algorithm are adopted to determine the conditional probability table of the Bayesian network. The proposed prognosis approach using Pearl’s polytree propagation algorithm for joint probability reasoning can predict the failure probabilities of leaf nodes based on the current status of root nodes. Verification results in a high-speed railway traction simulation system can demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  4. Using literature and data to learn Bayesian networks as clinical models of ovarian tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antal, P.; Fannes, G.; Timmerman, D.

    2004-01-01

    Thanks to its increasing availability, electronic literature has become a potential source of information for the development of complex Bayesian networks (BN), when human expertise is missing or data is scarce or contains much noise. This opportunity raises the question of how to integrate...... information from free-text resources with statistical data in learning Bayesian networks. Firstly, we report on the collection of prior information resources in the ovarian cancer domain, which includes "kernel" annotations of the domain variables. We introduce methods based on the annotations and literature...... an expert reference and against data scores (the mutual information (MI) and a Bayesian score). Next, we transform the text-based dependency measures into informative text-based priors for Bayesian network structures. Finally, we report the benefit of such informative text-based priors on the performance...

  5. Characterizing structural association alterations within brain networks in normal aging using Gaussian Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojuan; Wang, Yan; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Xia; Zhang, Jiacai; Li, Ke; Jin, Zhen; Yao, Li

    2014-01-01

    Recent multivariate neuroimaging studies have revealed aging-related alterations in brain structural networks. However, the sensory/motor networks such as the auditory, visual and motor networks, have obtained much less attention in normal aging research. In this study, we used Gaussian Bayesian networks (BN), an approach investigating possible inter-regional directed relationship, to characterize aging effects on structural associations between core brain regions within each of these structural sensory/motor networks using volumetric MRI data. We then further examined the discriminability of BN models for the young (N = 109; mean age =22.73 years, range 20-28) and old (N = 82; mean age =74.37 years, range 60-90) groups. The results of the BN modeling demonstrated that structural associations exist between two homotopic brain regions from the left and right hemispheres in each of the three networks. In particular, compared with the young group, the old group had significant connection reductions in each of the three networks and lesser connection numbers in the visual network. Moreover, it was found that the aging-related BN models could distinguish the young and old individuals with 90.05, 73.82, and 88.48% accuracy for the auditory, visual, and motor networks, respectively. Our findings suggest that BN models can be used to investigate the normal aging process with reliable statistical power. Moreover, these differences in structural inter-regional interactions may help elucidate the neuronal mechanism of anatomical changes in normal aging.

  6. Bayesian estimation of HIV-1 dynamics in vivo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushakova, Anastasia; Pettersen, Frank Olav; Mæland, Arild; Lindqvist, Bo Henry; Kvale, Dag

    2015-03-01

    Statistical analysis of viral dynamics in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing structured treatment interruptions were performed using a novel model that accounts for treatment efficiency as well as total CD8+ T cell counts. A brief review of parameter estimates obtained in other studies is given, pointing to a considerable variation in the estimated values. A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation was used with longitudinal measurements of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts and HIV RNA. We describe an estimation procedure which uses spline approximations of CD8+ T cells dynamics. This approach reduces the number of parameters that must be estimated and is especially helpful when the CD8+ T cells growth function has a delayed dependence on the past. Seven important parameters related to HIV-1 in-host dynamics were estimated, most of them treated as global parameters across the group of patients. The estimated values were mainly in keeping with the estimates obtained in other reports, but our paper also introduces the estimates of some new parameters which supplement the current knowledge. The method was also tested on a simulated data set.

  7. Dynamic Network Change Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    detection methods is presented; the cumulative sum ( CUSUM ), the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), and a scan statistic (SS). Statistical...minimizing the risk of false alarms. Three common SPC methods that we consider here are the CUSUM (Page, 1961), EWMA (Roberts, 1959), and the SS...successive dynamic network measures are then used to calculate the statistics for the CUSUM , the EWMA, and the SS. These are then compared to decision

  8. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  9. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Tegucigalpa, Honduras Using Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian Network and Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Urquia, E. L.; Braun, A.; Yamagishi, H.

    2016-12-01

    Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, experiences rainfall-induced landslides on a yearly basis. The high precipitation regime and the rugged topography the city has been built in couple with the lack of a proper urban expansion plan to contribute to the occurrence of landslides during the rainy season. Thousands of inhabitants live at risk of losing their belongings due to the construction of precarious shelters in landslide-prone areas on mountainous terrains and next to the riverbanks. Therefore, the city is in the need for landslide susceptibility and hazard maps to aid in the regulation of future development. Major challenges in the context of highly dynamic urbanizing areas are the overlap of natural and anthropogenic slope destabilizing factors, as well as the availability and accuracy of data. Data-driven multivariate techniques have proven to be powerful in discovering interrelations between factors, identifying important factors in large datasets, capturing non-linear problems and coping with noisy and incomplete data. This analysis focuses on the creation of a landslide susceptibility map using different methods from the field of data mining, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Decision Trees (DT). The input dataset of the study contains geomorphological and hydrological factors derived from a digital elevation model with a 10 m resolution, lithological factors derived from a geological map, and anthropogenic factors, such as information on the development stage of the neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and road density. Moreover, a landslide inventory map that was developed in 2014 through aerial photo interpretation was used as target variable in the analysis. The analysis covers an area of roughly 100 km2, while 8.95 km2 are occupied by landslides. In a first step, the dataset was explored by assessing and improving the data quality, identifying unimportant variables and finding interrelations. Then, based on a training

  10. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the data set with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2% with a R2 of 0.959. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally

  11. Bayesian network classifiers for categorizing cortical GABAergic interneurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihaljević, Bojan; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; Bielza, Concha; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2015-04-01

    An accepted classification of GABAergic interneurons of the cerebral cortex is a major goal in neuroscience. A recently proposed taxonomy based on patterns of axonal arborization promises to be a pragmatic method for achieving this goal. It involves characterizing interneurons according to five axonal arborization features, called F1-F5, and classifying them into a set of predefined types, most of which are established in the literature. Unfortunately, there is little consensus among expert neuroscientists regarding the morphological definitions of some of the proposed types. While supervised classifiers were able to categorize the interneurons in accordance with experts' assignments, their accuracy was limited because they were trained with disputed labels. Thus, here we automatically classify interneuron subsets with different label reliability thresholds (i.e., such that every cell's label is backed by at least a certain (threshold) number of experts). We quantify the cells with parameters of axonal and dendritic morphologies and, in order to predict the type, also with axonal features F1-F4 provided by the experts. Using Bayesian network classifiers, we accurately characterize and classify the interneurons and identify useful predictor variables. In particular, we discriminate among reliable examples of common basket, horse-tail, large basket, and Martinotti cells with up to 89.52% accuracy, and single out the number of branches at 180 μm from the soma, the convex hull 2D area, and the axonal features F1-F4 as especially useful predictors for distinguishing among these types. These results open up new possibilities for an objective and pragmatic classification of interneurons.

  12. Utilization of extended bayesian networks in decision making under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Eeckhout, Edward M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network tool (called IKE for Integrated Knowledge Engine) has been developed to assess the probability of undesirable events. The tool allows indications and observables from sensors and/or intelligence to feed directly into hypotheses of interest, thus allowing one to quantify the probability and uncertainty of these events resulting from very disparate evidence. For example, the probability that a facility is processing nuclear fuel or assembling a weapon can be assessed by examining the processes required, establishing the observables that should be present, then assembling information from intelligence, sensors and other information sources related to the observables. IKE also has the capability to determine tasking plans, that is, prioritize which observable should be collected next to most quickly ascertain the 'true' state and drive the probability toward 'zero' or 'one.' This optimization capability is called 'evidence marshaling.' One example to be discussed is a denied facility monitoring situation; there is concern that certain process(es) are being executed at the site (due to some intelligence or other data). We will show how additional pieces of evidence will then ascertain with some degree of certainty the likelihood of this process(es) as each piece of evidence is obtained. This example shows how both intelligence and sensor data can be incorporated into the analysis. A second example involves real-time perimeter security. For this demonstration we used seismic, acoustic, and optical sensors linked back to IKE. We show how these sensors identified and assessed the likelihood of 'intruder' versus friendly vehicles.

  13. Emulation Modeling with Bayesian Networks for Efficient Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, M. N.; Masterson, J.; Plant, N. G.; Gutierrez, B. T.; Thieler, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    Bayesian decision networks (BDN) have long been used to provide decision support in systems that require explicit consideration of uncertainty; applications range from ecology to medical diagnostics and terrorism threat assessments. Until recently, however, few studies have applied BDNs to the study of groundwater systems. BDNs are particularly useful for representing real-world system variability by synthesizing a range of hydrogeologic situations within a single simulation. Because BDN output is cast in terms of probability—an output desired by decision makers—they explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of a system. BDNs can thus serve as a more efficient alternative to other uncertainty characterization methods such as computationally demanding Monte Carlo analyses and others methods restricted to linear model analyses. We present a unique application of a BDN to a groundwater modeling analysis of the hydrologic response of Assateague Island, Maryland to sea-level rise. Using both input and output variables of the modeled groundwater response to different sea-level (SLR) rise scenarios, the BDN predicts the probability of changes in the depth to fresh water, which exerts an important influence on physical and biological island evolution. Input variables included barrier-island width, maximum island elevation, and aquifer recharge. The variability of these inputs and their corresponding outputs are sampled along cross sections in a single model run to form an ensemble of input/output pairs. The BDN outputs, which are the posterior distributions of water table conditions for the sea-level rise scenarios, are evaluated through error analysis and cross-validation to assess both fit to training data and predictive power. The key benefit for using BDNs in groundwater modeling analyses is that they provide a method for distilling complex model results into predictions with associated uncertainty, which is useful to decision makers. Future efforts incorporate

  14. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  15. Effective Structure Learning for Estimation of Distribution Algorithms via L1-Regularized Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs, as an extension of genetic algorithms, samples new solutions from the probabilistic model, which characterizes the distribution of promising solutions in the search space at each generation. This paper introduces and evaluates a novel estimation of a distribution algorithm, called L1-regularized Bayesian optimization algorithm, L1BOA. In L1BOA, Bayesian networks as probabilistic models are learned in two steps. First, candidate parents of each variable in Bayesian networks are detected by means of L1-regularized logistic regression, with the aim of leading a sparse but nearly optimized network structure. Second, the greedy search, which is restricted to the candidate parent-child pairs, is deployed to identify the final structure. Compared with the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA, L1BOA improves the efficiency of structure learning due to the reduction and automated control of network complexity introduced with L1-regularized learning. Experimental studies on different types of benchmark problems show that L1BOA not only outperforms BOA when no prior knowledge about problem structure is available, but also achieves and even exceeds the best performance of BOA that applies explicit controls on network complexity. Furthermore, Bayesian networks built by L1BOA and BOA during evolution are analysed and compared, which demonstrates that L1BOA is able to build simpler, yet more accurate probabilistic models.

  16. Evaluation of a partial genome screening of two asthma susceptibility regions using bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Ungvári

    Full Text Available Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls. The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA. This method uses bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated.With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2-1.8; p = 3×10(-4. The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics.In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance.

  17. Guidance on the implementation and reporting of a drug safety Bayesian network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlssen, David; Price, Karen L; Xia, H Amy; Hong, Hwanhee; Kerman, Jouni; Fu, Haoda; Quartey, George; Heilmann, Cory R; Ma, Haijun; Carlin, Bradley P

    2014-01-01

    The Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG) was formed in 2011 with a vision to ensure that Bayesian methods are well understood and broadly utilized for design and analysis and throughout the medical product development process, and to improve industrial, regulatory, and economic decision making. The group, composed of individuals from academia, industry, and regulatory, has as its mission to facilitate the appropriate use and contribute to the progress of Bayesian methodology. In this paper, the safety sub-team of the BSWG explores the use of Bayesian methods when applied to drug safety meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. Guidance is presented on the conduct and reporting of such analyses. We also discuss different structural model assumptions and provide discussion on prior specification. The work is illustrated through a case study involving a network meta-analysis related to the cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

  18. A tutorial on time-evolving dynamical Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankovski, Tomislav; Duggento, Andrea; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

    2014-12-01

    In view of the current availability and variety of measured data, there is an increasing demand for powerful signal processing tools that can cope successfully with the associated problems that often arise when data are being analysed. In practice many of the data-generating systems are not only time-variable, but also influenced by neighbouring systems and subject to random fluctuations (noise) from their environments. To encompass problems of this kind, we present a tutorial about the dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving coupled systems in the presence of noise. It includes the necessary theoretical description and the algorithms for its implementation. For general programming purposes, a pseudocode description is also given. Examples based on coupled phase and limit-cycle oscillators illustrate the salient features of phase dynamics inference. State domain inference is illustrated with an example of coupled chaotic oscillators. The applicability of the latter example to secure communications based on the modulation of coupling functions is outlined. MatLab codes for implementation of the method, as well as for the explicit examples, accompany the tutorial.

  19. The use of Bayesian Networks in Detecting the States of Ventilation Mills in Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Vujnović

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present a new method of predictive maintenance which can detect the states of coal grinding mills in thermal power plants using Bayesian networks. Several possible structures of Bayesian networks are proposed for solving this problem and one of them is implemented and tested on an actual system. This method uses acoustic signals and statistical signal pre-processing tools to compute the inputs of the Bayesian network. After that the network is trained and tested using signals measured in the vicinity of the mill in the period of 2 months. The goal of this algorithm is to increase the efficiency of the coal grinding process and reduce the maintenance cost by eliminating the unnecessary maintenance checks of the system.

  20. Method for Building a Medical Training Simulator with Bayesian Networks: SimDeCS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Cecilia Dias; Fonseca, João Marcelo; Bez, Marta Rosecler; Respício, Ana; Coelho, Helder

    2014-01-01

    Distance education has grown in importance with the advent of the internet. An adequate evaluation of students in this mode is still difficult. Distance tests or occasional on-site exams do not meet the needs of evaluation of the learning process for distance education. Bayesian networks are adequate for simulating several aspects of clinical reasoning. The possibility of integrating them in distance education student evaluation has not yet been explored much. The present work describes a Simulator based on probabilistic networks built to represent knowledge of clinical practice guidelines in Family and Community Medicine. The Bayesian Network, the basis of the simulator, was modeled to playable by the student, to give immediate feedback according to pedagogical strategies adapted to the student according to past performance, and to give a broad evaluation of performance at the end of the game. Simulators structured by Bayesian Networks may become alternatives in the evaluation of students of Medical Distance Education.

  1. Learning Bayesian Network Structure%贝叶斯网络结构学习分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王双成; 林士敏; 陆玉昌

    2000-01-01

    In this paper the analysis of principle and process of Bayesian network structure learning is given. Bayesian network structure learning is a process that seeks the best network structure fitting the prior knowledge and data. The computing of posterior can be closed when data are completed and some other conditions are satisfied ,while the computing is not closed when some data are missing. One solution for missing data is fill-in methods,another is to approximate the likelihood of structure,then to compute the probabilities of structure.

  2. Hybrid Hot Strip Rolling Force Prediction using a Bayesian Trained Artificial Neural Network and Analytical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Abdelkrim Moussaoui; Yacine Selaimia; Hadj A. Abbassi

    2006-01-01

    The authors discuss the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with analytical models to improve the performance of the prediction model of finishing rolling force in hot strip rolling mill process. The suggested model was implemented using Bayesian Evidence based training algorithm. It was found that the Bayesian Evidence based approach provided a superior and smoother fit to the real rolling mill data. Completely independent set of real rolling data were used to evaluate the capa...

  3. Explaining Inference on a Population of Independent Agents Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutovsky, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to design, implement, and evaluate a novel explanation method, the hierarchical explanation method (HEM), for explaining Bayesian network (BN) inference when the network is modeling a population of conditionally independent agents, each of which is modeled as a subnetwork. For example, consider disease-outbreak…

  4. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers

  5. Implementing relevance feedback in ligand-based virtual screening using Bayesian inference network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdo, Ammar; Salim, Naomie; Ahmed, Ali

    2011-10-01

    Recently, the use of the Bayesian network as an alternative to existing tools for similarity-based virtual screening has received noticeable attention from researchers in the chemoinformatics field. The main aim of the Bayesian network model is to improve the retrieval effectiveness of similarity-based virtual screening. To this end, different models of the Bayesian network have been developed. In our previous works, the retrieval performance of the Bayesian network was observed to improve significantly when multiple reference structures or fragment weightings were used. In this article, the authors enhance the Bayesian inference network (BIN) using the relevance feedback information. In this approach, a few high-ranking structures of unknown activity were filtered from the outputs of BIN, based on a single active reference structure, to form a set of active reference structures. This set of active reference structures was used in two distinct techniques for carrying out such BIN searching: reweighting the fragments in the reference structures and group fusion techniques. Simulated virtual screening experiments with three MDL Drug Data Report data sets showed that the proposed techniques provide simple ways of enhancing the cost-effectiveness of ligand-based virtual screening searches, especially for higher diversity data sets.

  6. Bayesian network modeling method based on case reasoning for emergency decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XU Lei

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network has the abilities of probability expression, uncertainty management and multi-information fusion.It can support emergency decision-making, which can improve the efficiency of decision-making.Emergency decision-making is highly time sensitive, which requires shortening the Bayesian Network modeling time as far as possible.Traditional Bayesian network modeling methods are clearly unable to meet that requirement.Thus, a Bayesian network modeling method based on case reasoning for emergency decision-making is proposed.The method can obtain optional cases through case matching by the functions of similarity degree and deviation degree.Then,new Bayesian network can be built through case adjustment by case merging and pruning.An example is presented to illustrate and test the proposed method.The result shows that the method does not have a huge search space or need sample data.The only requirement is the collection of expert knowledge and historical case models.Compared with traditional methods, the proposed method can reuse historical case models, which can reduce the modeling time and improve the efficiency.

  7. [Meta analysis of the use of Bayesian networks in breast cancer diagnosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Priscyla Waleska; Silva, Geraldo Doneda da; Moretti, Gustavo Pasquali; Simon, Carla Sasso; Winnikow, Erik Paul; Nassar, Silvia Modesto; Medeiros, Lidia Rosi; Rosa, Maria Inês

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of Bayesian networks in supporting breast cancer diagnoses. Systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out, including articles and papers published between January 1990 and March 2013. We included prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies of the accuracy of diagnoses of breast lesions (target conditions) made using Bayesian networks (index test). Four primary studies that included 1,223 breast lesions were analyzed, 89.52% (444/496) of the breast cancer cases and 6.33% (46/727) of the benign lesions were positive based on the Bayesian network analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) was 0.97, with a Q* value of 0.92. Using Bayesian networks to diagnose malignant lesions increased the pretest probability of a true positive from 40.03% to 90.05% and decreased the probability of a false negative to 6.44%. Therefore, our results demonstrated that Bayesian networks provide an accurate and non-invasive method to support breast cancer diagnosis.

  8. A new research tool for hybrid Bayesian networks using script language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wei; Park, Cheol Young; Carvalho, Rommel

    2011-06-01

    While continuous variables become more and more inevitable in Bayesian networks for modeling real-life applications in complex systems, there are not much software tools to support it. Popular commercial Bayesian network tools such as Hugin, and Netica etc., are either expensive or have to discretize continuous variables. In addition, some free programs existing in the literature, commonly known as BNT, GeNie/SMILE, etc, have their own advantages and disadvantages respectively. In this paper, we introduce a newly developed Java tool for model construction and inference for hybrid Bayesian networks. Via the representation power of the script language, this tool can build the hybrid model automatically based on a well defined string that follows the specific grammars. Furthermore, it implements several inference algorithms capable to accommodate hybrid Bayesian networks, including Junction Tree algorithm (JT) for conditional linear Gaussian model (CLG), and Direct Message Passing (DMP) for general hybrid Bayesian networks with CLG structure. We believe this tool will be useful for researchers in the field.

  9. Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F

    2012-03-01

    Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

  10. Bi-Bayesian Combined Model for Two-Step Prediction of Dynamic Turning Movement Proportions at Intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Short-term prediction of dynamic turning movement proportions at intersections is very important for intelligent transportation systems, but it is impossible to detect turning flows directly through current traffic surveillance devices. Existing prediction models have proved to be rather accurate in general, but not precise enough during every time interval, and can only obtain the one-step prediction. This paper first presents a Bayesian combined model to forecast the entering and exiting flows at intersections, by integrating a nonlinear regression, a moving average, and an autoregressive model. Based on the forecasted traffic flows, this paper further develops an accurate backpropagation neural network model and an efficient Kalman filtering model to predict the dynamic turning movement proportions. Using Bayesian method with both historical information and currently prediction results for error adjustment, this paper finally integrates both the above two prediction models and proposes a Bi-Bayesian combined framework to achieve both one-step and two-step predictions. A case study is implemented based on practical survey data, which are collected at an intersection in Beijing city, including both historical and current data. The reported prediction results indicate that the Bi-Bayesian combined model is rather accurate and stable for on-line applications.

  11. ACES-Based Testbed and Bayesian Game-Theoretic Framework for Dynamic Airspace Configuration Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The key innovation in this effort is the development of algorithms and a framework for automated Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) using a cooperative Bayesian...

  12. Dynamic Bayesian estimation of displacement parameters of continuous curve box based on Novozhilov theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Jian; YE Jian-shu; ZHAO Xin-ming

    2007-01-01

    The finite strip controlling equation of pinned curve box was deduced on basis of Novozhilov theory and with flexibility method, and the problem of continuous curve box was resolved. Dynamic Bayesian error function of displacement parameters of continuous curve box was found. The corresponding formulas of dynamic Bayesian expectation and variance were derived. After the method of solving the automatic search of step length was put forward, the optimization estimation computing formulas were also obtained by adapting conjugate gradient method. Then the steps of dynamic Bayesian estimation were given in detail. Through analysis of a classic example, the criterion of judging the precision of the known information is gained as well as some other important conclusions about dynamic Bayesian stochastic estimation of displacement parameters of continuous curve box.

  13. via dynamic neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Reyes-Reyes

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an adaptive technique is suggested to provide the passivity property for a class of partially known SISO nonlinear systems. A simple Dynamic Neural Network (DNN, containing only two neurons and without any hidden-layers, is used to identify the unknown nonlinear system. By means of a Lyapunov-like analysis the new learning law for this DNN, guarantying both successful identification and passivation effects, is derived. Based on this adaptive DNN model, an adaptive feedback controller, serving for wide class of nonlinear systems with an a priori incomplete model description, is designed. Two typical examples illustrate the effectiveness of the suggested approach.

  14. Dynamic Bayesian filtering for real-time seismic analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blough, D.K.; Rohay, A.C.; Anderson, K.K.; Nicholson, W.L.

    1994-04-01

    State space modeling, which includes techniques such as the Kalman filter, has been used to analyze many non-stationary time series. The ability of these dynamic models to adapt and track changes in the underlying process makes them attractive for application to the real-time analysis of three-component seismic waveforms. The authors are investigating the application of state space models formulated as Bayesian time series models to phase detection, polarization, and spectrogram estimation of seismograms. This approach removes the need to specify data windows in the time series for time averaging estimation (e.g., spectrum estimation). They are using this model to isolate particular seismic phases based on polarization parameters that are determined at a spectrum of frequencies. They plan to use polarization parameters, frequency spectra, and magnitudes to discriminate between different types of seismic sources. They present the application of this technique to artificial time series and to several real seismic events including the Non-Proliferation Experiment (NPE) two nuclear tests and three earthquakes from the Nevada Test site, as recorded on several regional broadband seismic stations. A preliminary result of this analysis indicates that earthquakes and explosions can potentially be discriminated on the bass of the polarization characteristics of scattered seismic phases. However, the chemical (NPE) and nuclear explosions appear to have very similar polarization characteristics.

  15. Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimhan, Sriram; Mengshoel, Ole

    2008-01-01

    Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.

  16. Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

    A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

  17. Unavailability of the residual system heat removal of Angra 1 by Bayesian networks considering dependent failures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Many R.S.; Melo, Paulo F.F.F. e, E-mail: mgomes@con.ufrj.br, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    This work models by Bayesian networks the residual heat removal system (SRCR) of Angra I nuclear power plant, using fault tree mapping for systematically identifying all possible modes of occurrence caused by a large loss of coolant accident (large LOCA). The focus is on dependent events, such as the bridge system structure of the residual heat removal system and the occurrence of common-cause failures. We used the Netica™ tool kit, Norsys Software Corporation and Python 2.7.5 for modeling Bayesian networks and Microsoft Excel for modeling fault trees. Working with dependent events using Bayesian networks is similar to the solutions proposed by other models, beyond simple understanding and ease of application and modification throughout the analysis. The results obtained for the unavailability of the system were satisfactory, showing that in most cases the system will be available to mitigate the effects of an accident as described above. (author)

  18. An Enhancement of Bayesian Inference Network for Ligand-Based Virtual Screening using Features Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Ahmed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Similarity based Virtual Screening (VS deals with a large amount of data containing irrelevant and/or redundant fragments or features. Recent use of Bayesian network as an alternative for existing tools for similarity based VS has received noticeable attention of the researchers in the field of chemoinformatics. Approach: To this end, different models of Bayesian network have been developed. In this study, we enhance the Bayesian Inference Network (BIN using a subset of selected molecules features. Results: In this approach, a few features were filtered from the molecular fingerprint features based on a features selection approach. Conclusion: Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL Drug Data Report (MDDR data sets showed that the proposed method provides simple ways of enhancing the cost effectiveness of ligand-based virtual screening searches, especially for higher diversity data set.

  19. Estimating uncertainty and reliability of social network data using Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana

    2015-09-01

    Social network analysis provides a useful lens through which to view the structure of animal societies, and as a result its use is increasingly widespread. One challenge that many studies of animal social networks face is dealing with limited sample sizes, which introduces the potential for a high level of uncertainty in estimating the rates of association or interaction between individuals. We present a method based on Bayesian inference to incorporate uncertainty into network analyses. We test the reliability of this method at capturing both local and global properties of simulated networks, and compare it to a recently suggested method based on bootstrapping. Our results suggest that Bayesian inference can provide useful information about the underlying certainty in an observed network. When networks are well sampled, observed networks approach the real underlying social structure. However, when sampling is sparse, Bayesian inferred networks can provide realistic uncertainty estimates around edge weights. We also suggest a potential method for estimating the reliability of an observed network given the amount of sampling performed. This paper highlights how relatively simple procedures can be used to estimate uncertainty and reliability in studies using animal social network analysis.

  20. SYNCHRONIZATION IN COMPLEX DYNAMICAL NETWORKS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiaofan; CHEN Guanrong

    2003-01-01

    In the past few years, the discovery of small-world and scale-free properties of many natural and artificial complex networks has stimulated increasing interest in further studying the underlying organizing principles of various complex networks. This has led to significant advances in understanding the relationship between the topology and the dynamics of such complex networks. This paper reviews some recent research works on the synchronization phenomenon in various dynamical networks with small-world and scalefree connections.

  1. Learn the effective connectivity pattern of attention networks: a resting functional MRI and Bayesian network study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Li, Rui; Yao, Li; Wu, Xia

    2011-03-01

    Task-based neuroimaging studies revealed that different attention operations were carried out by the functional interaction and cooperation between two attention systems: the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the ventral attention network (VAN), which were respectively involved in the "top-down" endogenous attention orienting and the "bottomup" exogenous attention reorienting process. Recent focused resting functional MRI (fMRI) studies found the two attention systems were inherently organized in the human brain regardless of whether or not the attention process were required, but how the two attention systems interact with each other in the absence of task is yet to be investigated. In this study, we first separated the DAN and VAN by applying the group independent component analysis (ICA) to the resting fMRI data acquired from 12 healthy young subjects, then used Gaussian Bayesian network (BN) learning approach to explore the plausible effective connectivity pattern of the two attention systems. It was found regions from the same attention network were strongly intra-dependent, and all the connections were located in the information flow from VAN to DAN, which suggested that an orderly functional interactions and information exchanges between the two attention networks existed in the intrinsic spontaneous brain activity, and the inherent connections might benefit the efficient cognitive process between DAN and VAN, such as the "top-down" and "bottom-up" reciprocal interaction when attention-related tasks were involved.

  2. An object-oriented Bayesian network modeling the causes of leg disorders in finisher herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Birk; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Toft, Nils

    2009-01-01

    The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause...... pigs (e.g. results from diagnostic tests) were used to estimate the most likely cause of leg disorders at herd level. As information to the model originated from two different levels, we used an object-oriented structure in order to ease the specification of the Bayesian network. Hence, a Herd class...

  3. Epidemic dynamics on complex networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; FU Zhongqian; WANG Binghong

    2006-01-01

    Recently, motivated by the pioneer work in revealing the small-world effect and scale-free property of various real-life networks, many scientists devote themselves to studying complex networks. One of the ultimate goals is to understand how the topological structures affect the dynamics upon networks. In this paper, we give a brief review on the studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks, including the description of classical epidemic models, the epidemic spread on small-world and scale-free networks, and network immunization. Finally, perspectives and some interesting problems are proposed.

  4. Complex Dynamics in Communication Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kocarev, Ljupco

    2005-01-01

    Computer and communication networks are among society's most important infrastructures. The internet, in particular, is a giant global network of networks without central control or administration. It is a paradigm of a complex system, where complexity may arise from different sources: topological structure, network evolution, connection and node diversity, or dynamical evolution. The present volume is the first book entirely devoted to the new and emerging field of nonlinear dynamics of TCP/IP networks. It addresses both scientists and engineers working in the general field of communication networks.

  5. 基于贝叶斯网络的组织创新影响机制研究%The mechanism influencing organizational innovation based on Bayesian network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋天颖

    2011-01-01

    The variables belonging with the organizational innovation influencing mechanism are uncertainty and dynamic, taking Bayesian network as an analytic tool is suitable. An organizational innovation influencing mechanism model is constructed based on Bayesian network according to the basic theory of Bayesian network, and the computing problem about how to simplify the complex Bayesian network is explored. The empirical study shows that the model overcomes the demerits of the original analytic method which is only suitable for lineafity and static analysis, and reflects the dynamic relationships of different variables in organizational innovation influencing mechanism.%组织创新影响机制中各变量具有不确定性与动态性等特点,可以尝试进行贝叶斯网络分析.根据贝叶斯网络的基本原理,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的组织创新影响机制模型,并对复杂贝叶斯网络计算问题的简化问题进行了探讨.实例应用表明,该方法克服了其他传统分析方法局限于线性、静态分析的缺点,较为准确地反映了组织创新影响机制各变量间的动态关系.

  6. Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Tiago P.

    The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among

  7. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  8. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  9. Upper-Lower Bounds Candidate Sets Searching Algorithm for Bayesian Network Structure Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is an important theoretical model in artificial intelligence field and also a powerful tool for processing uncertainty issues. Considering the slow convergence speed of current Bayesian network structure learning algorithms, a fast hybrid learning method is proposed in this paper. We start with further analysis of information provided by low-order conditional independence testing, and then two methods are given for constructing graph model of network, which is theoretically proved to be upper and lower bounds of the structure space of target network, so that candidate sets are given as a result; after that a search and scoring algorithm is operated based on the candidate sets to find the final structure of the network. Simulation results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper is more efficient than similar algorithms with the same learning precision.

  10. Aging Influence on Gray Matter Structural Associations within the Default Mode Network Utilizing Bayesian Network Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Chen, Kewei; Zhang, Jiacai; Yao, Li; Li, Ke; Jin, Zhen; Ye, Qing; Guo, Xiaojuan

    2014-01-01

    Recent neuroimaging studies have revealed normal aging-related alterations in functional and structural brain networks such as the default mode network (DMN). However, less is understood about specific brain structural dependencies or interactions between brain regions within the DMN in the normal aging process. In this study, using Bayesian network (BN) modeling, we analyzed gray matter volume data from 109 young and 82 old subjects to characterize the influence of aging on associations between core brain regions within the DMN. Furthermore, we investigated the discriminability of the aging-associated BN models for the young and old groups. Compared to their young counterparts, the old subjects showed significant reductions in connections from right inferior temporal cortex (ITC) to medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), right hippocampus (HP) to right ITC, and mPFC to posterior cingulate cortex and increases in connections from left HP to mPFC and right inferior parietal cortex to right ITC. Moreover, the classification results showed that the aging-related BN models could predict group membership with 88.48% accuracy, 88.07% sensitivity, and 89.02% specificity. Our findings suggest that structural associations within the DMN may be affected by normal aging and provide crucial information about aging effects on brain structural networks.

  11. Aging influence on grey matter structural associations within the default mode network utilizing Bayesian network modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan eWang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent neuroimaging studies have revealed normal aging-related alterations in functional and structural brain networks such as the default mode network (DMN. However, less is understood about specific brain structural dependencies or interactions between brain regions within the DMN in the normal aging process. In this study, using Bayesian network (BN modeling, we analyzed grey matter volume data from 109 young and 82 old subjects to characterize the influence of aging on associations between core brain regions within the DMN. Furthermore, we investigated the discriminability of the aging-associated BN models for the young and old groups. Compared to their young counterparts, the old subjects showed significant reductions in connections from right inferior temporal cortex (ITC to medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC, right hippocampus (HP to right ITC, and mPFC to posterior cingulate cortex (PCC and increases in connections from left HP to mPFC and right inferior parietal cortex (IPC to right ITC. Moreover, the classification results showed that the aging-related BN models could predict group membership with 88.48% accuracy, 88.07% sensitivity and 89.02% specificity. Our findings suggest that structural associations within the DMN may be affected by normal aging and provide crucial information about aging effects on brain structural networks.

  12. Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Deborah, Leishman, A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Eeckhout, Edward [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.

  13. Bayesian Computational Sensor Networks for Aircraft Structural Health Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-02

    emissions as well as delamination-dominated and fiber-dominated damage. The three frequency regions identified were 10 - 100 kHz, 100 - 250 kHz, and 250...the RD patterns can be used for Bayesian model accuracy assessment of the difference between a uniform grid layout of the nodes versus an irregular... grid due to error in node placement. SLAMBOT: Structural Health Monitoring Robot using Lamb Waves We developed the combination of a mobile robot and

  14. Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M Gunnar; Sundström, Anders; Lindström, Anders

    2013-09-01

    In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

  15. A Parallel and Incremental Approach for Data-Intensive Learning of Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Kun; Fang, Qiyu; Wang, Xiaoling; Li, Jin; Liu, Weiyi

    2015-12-01

    Bayesian network (BN) has been adopted as the underlying model for representing and inferring uncertain knowledge. As the basis of realistic applications centered on probabilistic inferences, learning a BN from data is a critical subject of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and big data paradigms. Currently, it is necessary to extend the classical methods for learning BNs with respect to data-intensive computing or in cloud environments. In this paper, we propose a parallel and incremental approach for data-intensive learning of BNs from massive, distributed, and dynamically changing data by extending the classical scoring and search algorithm and using MapReduce. First, we adopt the minimum description length as the scoring metric and give the two-pass MapReduce-based algorithms for computing the required marginal probabilities and scoring the candidate graphical model from sample data. Then, we give the corresponding strategy for extending the classical hill-climbing algorithm to obtain the optimal structure, as well as that for storing a BN by pairs. Further, in view of the dynamic characteristics of the changing data, we give the concept of influence degree to measure the coincidence of the current BN with new data, and then propose the corresponding two-pass MapReduce-based algorithms for BNs incremental learning. Experimental results show the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness of our methods.

  16. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengkai Liu

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  17. Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was to establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.

  18. GPU Implementation of Bayesian Neural Network Construction for Data-Intensive Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Michelle; Prosper, Harrison B.; Meyer-Baese, Anke

    2014-06-01

    We describe a graphical processing unit (GPU) implementation of the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMC) method for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). Our implementation uses NVIDIA's parallel computing architecture, CUDA. We briefly review BNNs and the HMC method and we describe our implementations and give preliminary results.

  19. Bayesian network models for the management of ventilator-associated pneumonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, S.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the research described in this thesis was to develop Bayesian network models for the analysis of patient data, as well as to use such a model as a clinical decision-support system for assisting clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in mecha

  20. Providing probability distributions for the causal pathogen of clinical mastitis using naive Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, W.; Gaag, van der L.C.; Barkema, H.W.; Hogeveen, H.

    2009-01-01

    Clinical mastitis (CM) can be caused by a wide variety of pathogens and farmers must start treatment before the actual causal pathogen is known. By providing a probability distribution for the causal pathogen, naive Bayesian networks (NBN) can serve as a management tool for farmers to decide which t

  1. A Bayesian network approach for causal inferences in pesticide risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesticide risk assessment and management must balance societal benefits and ecosystem protection, based on quantified risks and the strength of the causal linkages between uses of the pesticide and socioeconomic and ecological endpoints of concern. A Bayesian network (BN) is a gr...

  2. Bayesian Network Model with Application to Smart Power Semiconductor Lifetime Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plankensteiner, Kathrin; Bluder, Olivia; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-09-01

    In this article, Bayesian networks are used to model semiconductor lifetime data obtained from a cyclic stress test system. The data of interest are a mixture of log-normal distributions, representing two dominant physical failure mechanisms. Moreover, the data can be censored due to limited test resources. For a better understanding of the complex lifetime behavior, interactions between test settings, geometric designs, material properties, and physical parameters of the semiconductor device are modeled by a Bayesian network. Statistical toolboxes in MATLAB® have been extended and applied to find the best structure of the Bayesian network and to perform parameter learning. Due to censored observations Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are employed to determine the posterior distributions. For model selection the automatic relevance determination (ARD) algorithm and goodness-of-fit criteria such as marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior predictive density distributions, and sum of squared errors of prediction (SSEP) are applied and evaluated. The results indicate that the application of Bayesian networks to semiconductor reliability provides useful information about the interactions between the significant covariates and serves as a reliable alternative to currently applied methods.

  3. Prediction and Assessment of Student Behaviour in Open and Distance Education in Computers Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenos, Michalis

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a methodological approach based on Bayesian Networks for modelling the behaviour of the students of a bachelor course in computers in an Open University that deploys distance educational methods. It describes the structure of the model, its application for modelling the behaviour of student groups in the Informatics Course of…

  4. Estimation of mutation rates from paternity cases using a Bayesian network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vicard, P.; Dawid, A.P.; Mortera, J.

    and paternal mutation rates, while allowing a wide variety of mutation models. A Bayesian network is constructed to facilitate computation of the likelihood function for the mutation parameters. It can process both full and summary genotypic information, from both complete putative father-mother-child triplets...

  5. A General Structure for Legal Arguments about Evidence Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Lagnado, David A.

    2013-01-01

    A Bayesian network (BN) is a graphical model of uncertainty that is especially well suited to legal arguments. It enables us to visualize and model dependencies between different hypotheses and pieces of evidence and to calculate the revised probability beliefs about all uncertain factors when any piece of new evidence is presented. Although BNs…

  6. Potential Uses of Bayesian Networks as Tools for Synthesis of Systematic Reviews of Complex Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, G. B.; Mengersen, K.; Meader, N.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention.…

  7. Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

    2014-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

  8. Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

    2009-01-01

    In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

  9. Featuring Multiple Local Optima to Assist the User in the Interpretation of Induced Bayesian Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Pena, Jose; Kocka, Tomas

    2004-01-01

    We propose a method to assist the user in the interpretation of the best Bayesian network model indu- ced from data. The method consists in extracting relevant features from the model (e.g. edges, directed paths and Markov blankets) and, then, assessing the con¯dence in them by studying multiple...

  10. Bayesian network models for the management of ventilator-associated pneumonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, S.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the research described in this thesis was to develop Bayesian network models for the analysis of patient data, as well as to use such a model as a clinical decision-support system for assisting clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in

  11. Modelling access to renal transplantation waiting list in a French healthcare network using a Bayesian method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayat, Sahar; Cuggia, Marc; Kessler, Michel; Briançon, Serge; Le Beux, Pierre; Frimat, Luc

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation of adult candidates for kidney transplantation diverges from one centre to another. Our purpose was to assess the suitability of Bayesian method for describing the factors associated to registration on the waiting list in a French healthcare network. We have found no published paper using Bayesian method in this domain. Eight hundred and nine patients starting renal replacement therapy were included in the analysis. The data were extracted from the information system of the healthcare network. We performed conventional statistical analysis and data mining analysis using mainly Bayesian networks. The Bayesian model showed that the probability of registration on the waiting list is associated to age, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, serum albumin level, respiratory disease, physical impairment, follow-up in the department performing transplantation and past history of malignancy. These results are similar to conventional statistical method. The comparison between conventional analysis and data mining analysis showed us the contribution of the data mining method for sorting variables and having a global view of the variables' associations. Moreover theses approaches constitute an essential step toward a decisional information system for healthcare networks.

  12. Comparison of a Bayesian Network with a Logistic Regression Model to Forecast IgA Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Ducher

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n=155 performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves. IgAN was found (on pathology in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67% and specificity (73% versus 95% using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation.

  13. Comparison of a Bayesian network with a logistic regression model to forecast IgA nephropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducher, Michel; Kalbacher, Emilie; Combarnous, François; Finaz de Vilaine, Jérome; McGregor, Brigitte; Fouque, Denis; Fauvel, Jean Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN) from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n = 155) performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. IgAN was found (on pathology) in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67%) and specificity (73% versus 95%) using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation.

  14. Improving the structure MCMC sampler for Bayesian networks by introducing a new edge reversal move

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2008-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian networks in systems biology are computationally demanding due to the large number of model parameters. Conventional MCMC schemes based on proposal moves in structure space tend to be too slow in mixing and convergence, and have recently been superseded by proposal moves in t

  15. Using literature and data to learn Bayesian networks as clinical models of ovarian tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antal, P.; Fannes, G.; Timmerman, D.

    2004-01-01

    Thanks to its increasing availability, electronic literature has become a potential source of information for the development of complex Bayesian networks (BN), when human expertise is missing or data is scarce or contains much noise. This opportunity raises the question of how to integrate...

  16. Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

    2016-08-01

    Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling.

  17. Spatiotemporal Bayesian Networks for Malaria Prediction: Case Study of Northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddawy, Peter; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Rattanabumrung, Chunyanuch; Rungrun, Pichamon; Suksopee, Natwipa; Tantiwaranpant, Saran; Niruntasuk, Natcha

    2016-01-01

    While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations of inferences. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating a village level model with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The network is learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. The network models incidence over time as well as evolution of the environmental variables, and captures time lagged and nonlinear effects. Out of sample evaluation shows the model to have high accuracy for one and two week predictions.

  18. Survey of Bayesian Models for Modelling of Stochastic Temporal Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ng, B

    2006-10-12

    This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

  19. A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biedermann Alex

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain, this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional

  20. Prediction of annual water consumption in Guangdong Province based on Bayesian neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Tao; Xue, Huifeng

    2017-06-01

    In the context of the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system, the role of water demand forecasting for regional water resources management is becoming increasingly significant. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of water consumption in Guangdong Province, we made the forecast index system of annual water consumption, and constructed the forecast model of annual water consumption of BP neural network, then optimized the regularization BP neural network in utilization rate of water. The results showed that the average absolute percentage error of Bayesian neural network prediction model and BP neural network prediction model is 0.70% and 0.46% respectively. BP neural network model by Bayesian regularization is more ability to improve the accuracy of about 0.24%, more in line with the regional annual water demand forecast high precision requirements. Take the planning index value of Guangdong Province’s thirteen five plan into Bayesian neural network forecasting model, and its forecast value is 45.432 billion cubic meters, which will reach 456.04 billion cubic meters of red water in Guangdong Province in 2020.

  1. Dynamic ad hoc networks

    CERN Document Server

    Rashvand, Habib

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the exciting new application paradigm of using amalgamated technologies of the Internet and wireless, the next generation communication networks (also called 'ubiquitous', 'complex' and 'unstructured' networking) are changing the way we develop and apply our future systems and services at home and on local, national and global scales. Whatever the interconnection - a WiMAX enabled networked mobile vehicle, MEMS or nanotechnology enabled distributed sensor systems, Vehicular Ad hoc Networking (VANET) or Mobile Ad hoc Networking (MANET) - all can be classified under new networking s

  2. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  3. Clinical outcome prediction in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Macdonald, R Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2013-01-01

    The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs). Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique) denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

  4. Cognitive Dynamic Optical Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Miguel, Ignacio; Duran, Ramon J.; Lorenzo, Ruben M.

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive networks are a promising solution for the control of heterogeneous optical networks. We review their fundamentals as well as a number of applications developed in the framework of the EU FP7 CHRON project.......Cognitive networks are a promising solution for the control of heterogeneous optical networks. We review their fundamentals as well as a number of applications developed in the framework of the EU FP7 CHRON project....

  5. Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

    2003-04-01

    This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

  6. Directed network discovery with dynamic network modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anzellotti, Stefano; Kliemann, Dorit; Jacoby, Nir; Saxe, Rebecca

    2017-05-01

    Cognitive tasks recruit multiple brain regions. Understanding how these regions influence each other (the network structure) is an important step to characterize the neural basis of cognitive processes. Often, limited evidence is available to restrict the range of hypotheses a priori, and techniques that sift efficiently through a large number of possible network structures are needed (network discovery). This article introduces a novel modelling technique for network discovery (Dynamic Network Modelling or DNM) that builds on ideas from Granger Causality and Dynamic Causal Modelling introducing three key changes: (1) efficient network discovery is implemented with statistical tests on the consistency of model parameters across participants, (2) the tests take into account the magnitude and sign of each influence, and (3) variance explained in independent data is used as an absolute (rather than relative) measure of the quality of the network model. In this article, we outline the functioning of DNM, we validate DNM in simulated data for which the ground truth is known, and we report an example of its application to the investigation of influences between regions during emotion recognition, revealing top-down influences from brain regions encoding abstract representations of emotions (medial prefrontal cortex and superior temporal sulcus) onto regions engaged in the perceptual analysis of facial expressions (occipital face area and fusiform face area) when participants are asked to switch between reporting the emotional valence and the age of a face. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Interactive Naive Bayesian network: A new approach of constructing gene-gene interaction network for cancer classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S

    2015-01-01

    Naive Bayesian (NB) network classifier is a simple and well-known type of classifier, which can be easily induced from a DNA microarray data set. However, a strong conditional independence assumption of NB network sometimes can lead to weak classification performance. In this paper, we propose a new approach of interactive naive Bayesian (INB) network to weaken the conditional independence of NB network and classify cancers using DNA microarray data set. We selected the differently expressed genes (DEGs) to reduce the dimension of the microarray data set. Then, an interactive parent which has the biggest influence among all DEGs is searched for each DEG. And then we calculate a weight to represent the interactive relationship between a DEG and its parent. Finally, the gene-gene interaction network is constructed. We experimentally test the INB network in terms of classification accuracy using leukemia and colon DNA microarray data sets, then we compare it with the NB network. The INB network can get higher classification accuracies than NB network. And INB network can show the gene-gene interactions visually.

  8. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  9. High-accuracy Decision of Call-triage by Using Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunoki, Shota; Hamagami, Tomoki; Oshige, Kenji; Kawakami, Chihiro; Suzuki, Noriyuki

    A new call-triage system, a key part of emergency support system with stochastic network model is examined. The call-triage is an operation allowing the efficient decision of service grade and dispatching of suitable rescue team service from phone call information. Nowadays, the call-triage is being trialed on a few cities and is achieving an effect. However, there is the issue that if under-triage in which the condition of sick person is estimated more lightly is eliminated, the efficiency is degraded (over-triage). In this report, in order to overcome the issue, the Bayesian network scheme is examined to the call-triage system. The experiments with real call-triage data set results show the Bayesian network achieves precision enhancement.

  10. Cognitive Dynamic Optical Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Miguel, Ignacio; Duran, Ramon J.; Jimenez, Tamara

    2013-01-01

    learning with the aim of improving performance. In this paper, we review the fundamentals of cognitive networks and focus on their application to the optical networking area. In particular, a number of cognitive network architectures proposed so far, as well as their associated supporting technologies......The use of cognition is a promising element for the control of heterogeneous optical networks. Not only are cognitive networks able to sense current network conditions and act according to them, but they also take into account the knowledge acquired through past experiences; that is, they include......, are reviewed. Moreover, several applications, mainly developed in the framework of the EU FP7 Cognitive Heterogeneous Reconfigurable Optical Network (CHRON) project, are also described....

  11. [Using the Tabu-search-algorithm-based Bayesian network to analyze the risk factors of coronary heart diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Z; Zhang, X L; Rao, H X; Wang, H F; Wang, X; Qiu, L X

    2016-06-01

    Under the available data gathered from a coronary study questionnaires with 10 792 cases, this article constructs a Bayesian network model based on the tabu search algorithm and calculates the conditional probability of each node, using the Maximum-likelihood. Pros and cons of the Bayesian network model are evaluated to compare against the logistic regression model in the analysis of coronary factors. Applicability of this network model in clinical study is also investigated. Results show that Bayesian network model can reveal the complex correlations among influencing factors on the coronary and the relationship with coronary heart diseases. Bayesian network model seems promising and more practical than the logistic regression model in analyzing the influencing factors of coronary heart disease.

  12. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Nonlinear Dynamics on Interconnected Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, Alex; De Domenico, Manlio

    2016-06-01

    Networks of dynamical interacting units can represent many complex systems, from the human brain to transportation systems and societies. The study of these complex networks, when accounting for different types of interactions has become a subject of interest in the last few years, especially because its representational power in the description of users' interactions in diverse online social platforms (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.) [1], or in representing different transportation modes in urban networks [2,3]. The general name coined for these networks is multilayer networks, where each layer accounts for a type of interaction (see Fig. 1).

  14. Tensor networks for dynamic spacetimes

    CERN Document Server

    May, Alex

    2016-01-01

    Existing tensor network models of holography are limited to representing the geometry of constant time slices of static spacetimes. We study the possibility of describing the geometry of a dynamic spacetime using tensor networks. We find it is necessary to give a new definition of length in the network, and propose a definition based on the mutual information. We show that by associating a set of networks with a single quantum state and making use of the mutual information based definition of length, a network analogue of the maximin formula can be used to calculate the entropy of boundary regions.

  15. Structurally Dynamic Spin Market Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Denis; Kuscsik, Zoltán

    The agent-based model of stock price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. The inherent structure of node agent "brain" is modeled by a recursive neural network with local and global inputs and feedback connections. For specific parametric combination the complex network displays small-world phenomenon combined with scale-free behavior. The identification of a local leader (network hub, agent whose strategies are frequently adapted by its neighbors) is carried out by repeated random walk process through network. The simulations show empirically relevant dynamics of price returns and volatility clustering. The additional emerging aspects of stylized market statistics are Zipfian distributions of fitness.

  16. Dynamical Convergence Trajectory in Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TAN Ning; ZHANG Yun-Jun; OUYANG Qi; GENG Zhi

    2005-01-01

    @@ It is well known that topology and dynamics are two major aspects to determine the function of a network. We study one of the dynamic properties of a network: trajectory convergence, i.e. how a system converges to its steady state. Using numerical and analytical methods, we show that in a logical-like dynamical model, the occurrence of convergent trajectory in a network depends mainly on the type of the fixed point and the ratio between activation and inhibition links. We analytically proof that this property is induced by the competition between two types of state transition structures in phase space: tree-like transition structure and star-like transition structure. We show that the biological networks, such as the cell cycle network in budding yeast, prefers the tree-like transition structures and suggest that this type of convergence trajectories may be universal.

  17. A Bayesian Approach to Measurement Bias in Networking Studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Ling; Robinson, Scott E.; Torenvlied, René

    2014-01-01

    The study of managerial networking has been growing in the field of public administration; a field that analyzes how managers in open system organizations interact with different external actors and organizations. Coincident with this interest in managerial networking is the use of self-reported

  18. Studying Dynamics in Business Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Poul Houman; Anderson, Helen; Havila, Virpi;

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a theory on network dynamics using the concepts of role and position from sociological theory. Moreover, the theory is further tested using case studies from Denmark and Finland...

  19. Evaluation of the dynamic processes of a landslide with laser scanners and Bayesian methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Guarnieri

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the study of the dynamics of a landslide from two different but complementary point of views. The landslide is situated within the Miozza basin, an area of approximately 10.7 km2 located in the Alpine region of Carnia (Italy. In the first part of the paper, the macro-scale analysis of volumetric changes occurred after the reactivation of landslide in 2004 is addressed by using a two-epoch laser scanning surveys from airborne (ALS and terrestrial (TLS platforms. airborne laser scanning (ALS data were collected in 2003 (before reactivation of the phenomenon with an ALTM 3033 OPTECH sensor while terrestrial laser scanning (TLS measurements were acquired in 2008 with a Riegl LMS-Z620. The second part of the paper deals with the study of dynamic processes of the landslide at micro-scale. To this aim, a global navigation satellite system (GNSS-based monitoring network is analysed using a statistical approach to discriminate between measurement noise and possible actual displacements. This task is accomplished using both “classical” statistical testing and a Bayesian approach. The second method has been employed to verify some apparent vertical displacements detected by the classical test. As regards the first topic of the paper, achieved results show that long-range TLS instruments can be profitably used in mountain areas to provide high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs with superior quality and detail with respect to aerial light detection and ranging data only, even in areas with very low accessibility. Moreover, ALS- and TLS-derived DTMs can be combined each other in order to fill gaps in ALS data, mainly due to the complexity of terrain morphology, and to perform quite accurate calculations of volume changes due to landslide phenomenon. Finally, the outcomes of the application of Bayesian inference demonstrate the effectiveness of this method to better detect statistically significant displacements of a GNSS

  20. CGBayesNets: conditional Gaussian Bayesian network learning and inference with mixed discrete and continuous data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGeachie, Michael J; Chang, Hsun-Hsien; Weiss, Scott T

    2014-06-01

    Bayesian Networks (BN) have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs) formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com.

  1. CGBayesNets: conditional Gaussian Bayesian network learning and inference with mixed discrete and continuous data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J McGeachie

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian Networks (BN have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com.

  2. Inferring cellular regulatory networks with Bayesian model averaging for linear regression (BMALR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xun; Zi, Zhike

    2014-08-01

    Bayesian network and linear regression methods have been widely applied to reconstruct cellular regulatory networks. In this work, we propose a Bayesian model averaging for linear regression (BMALR) method to infer molecular interactions in biological systems. This method uses a new closed form solution to compute the posterior probabilities of the edges from regulators to the target gene within a hybrid framework of Bayesian model averaging and linear regression methods. We have assessed the performance of BMALR by benchmarking on both in silico DREAM datasets and real experimental datasets. The results show that BMALR achieves both high prediction accuracy and high computational efficiency across different benchmarks. A pre-processing of the datasets with the log transformation can further improve the performance of BMALR, leading to a new top overall performance. In addition, BMALR can achieve robust high performance in community predictions when it is combined with other competing methods. The proposed method BMALR is competitive compared to the existing network inference methods. Therefore, BMALR will be useful to infer regulatory interactions in biological networks. A free open source software tool for the BMALR algorithm is available at https://sites.google.com/site/bmalr4netinfer/.

  3. Bayesian Network Inference Enables Unbiased Phenotypic Anchoring of Transcriptomic Responses to Cigarette Smoke in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennen, Danyel G J; van Leeuwen, Danitsja M; Hendrickx, Diana M; Gottschalk, Ralph W H; van Delft, Joost H M; Kleinjans, Jos C S

    2015-10-19

    Microarray-based transcriptomic analysis has been demonstrated to hold the opportunity to study the effects of human exposure to, e.g., chemical carcinogens at the whole genome level, thus yielding broad-ranging molecular information on possible carcinogenic effects. Since genes do not operate individually but rather through concerted interactions, analyzing and visualizing networks of genes should provide important mechanistic information, especially upon connecting them to functional parameters, such as those derived from measurements of biomarkers for exposure and carcinogenic risk. Conventional methods such as hierarchical clustering and correlation analyses are frequently used to address these complex interactions but are limited as they do not provide directional causal dependence relationships. Therefore, our aim was to apply Bayesian network inference with the purpose of phenotypic anchoring of modified gene expressions. We investigated a use case on transcriptomic responses to cigarette smoking in humans, in association with plasma cotinine levels as biomarkers of exposure and aromatic DNA-adducts in blood cells as biomarkers of carcinogenic risk. Many of the genes that appear in the Bayesian networks surrounding plasma cotinine, and to a lesser extent around aromatic DNA-adducts, hold biologically relevant functions in inducing severe adverse effects of smoking. In conclusion, this study shows that Bayesian network inference enables unbiased phenotypic anchoring of transcriptomics responses. Furthermore, in all inferred Bayesian networks several dependencies are found which point to known but also to new relationships between the expression of specific genes, cigarette smoke exposure, DNA damaging-effects, and smoking-related diseases, in particular associated with apoptosis, DNA repair, and tumor suppression, as well as with autoimmunity.

  4. Censoring for Bayesian Cooperative Positioning in Dense Wireless Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das, Kallol; Wymeersch, Henk

    2012-01-01

    Cooperative positioning is a promising solution for location-enabled technologies in GPS-challenged environments. However, it suffers from high computational complexity and increased network traffic, compared to traditional positioning approaches. The computational complexity is related to the numbe

  5. SU-E-T-51: Bayesian Network Models for Radiotherapy Error Detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalet, A; Phillips, M; Gennari, J [UniversityWashington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To develop a probabilistic model of radiotherapy plans using Bayesian networks that will detect potential errors in radiation delivery. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with medical physicists and other domain experts were employed to generate a set of layered nodes and arcs forming a Bayesian Network (BN) which encapsulates relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies. Concepts in the final network were limited to those whose parameters are represented in the institutional database at a level significant enough to develop mathematical distributions. The concept-relation knowledge base was constructed using the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and translated into Hugin Expert Bayes Network files via the the RHugin package in the R statistical programming language. A subset of de-identified data derived from a Mosaiq relational database representing 1937 unique prescription cases was processed and pre-screened for errors and then used by the Hugin implementation of the Estimation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for machine learning all parameter distributions. Individual networks were generated for each of several commonly treated anatomic regions identified by ICD-9 neoplasm categories including lung, brain, lymphoma, and female breast. Results: The resulting Bayesian networks represent a large part of the probabilistic knowledge inherent in treatment planning. By populating the networks entirely with data captured from a clinical oncology information management system over the course of several years of normal practice, we were able to create accurate probability tables with no additional time spent by experts or clinicians. These probabilistic descriptions of the treatment planning allow one to check if a treatment plan is within the normal scope of practice, given some initial set of clinical evidence and thereby detect for potential outliers to be flagged for further investigation. Conclusion: The networks developed here support the

  6. GraphAlignment: Bayesian pairwise alignment of biological networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolář Michal

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With increased experimental availability and accuracy of bio-molecular networks, tools for their comparative and evolutionary analysis are needed. A key component for such studies is the alignment of networks. Results We introduce the Bioconductor package GraphAlignment for pairwise alignment of bio-molecular networks. The alignment incorporates information both from network vertices and network edges and is based on an explicit evolutionary model, allowing inference of all scoring parameters directly from empirical data. We compare the performance of our algorithm to an alternative algorithm, Græmlin 2.0. On simulated data, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 in several benchmarks except for computational complexity. When there is little or no noise in the data, GraphAlignment is slower than Græmlin 2.0. It is faster than Græmlin 2.0 when processing noisy data containing spurious vertex associations. Its typical case complexity grows approximately as O(N2.6. On empirical bacterial protein-protein interaction networks (PIN and gene co-expression networks, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 with respect to coverage and specificity, albeit by a small margin. On large eukaryotic PIN, Græmlin 2.0 outperforms GraphAlignment. Conclusions The GraphAlignment algorithm is robust to spurious vertex associations, correctly resolves paralogs, and shows very good performance in identification of homologous vertices defined by high vertex and/or interaction similarity. The simplicity and generality of GraphAlignment edge scoring makes the algorithm an appropriate choice for global alignment of networks.

  7. Costal vulnerability systems-network using Fuzzy and Bayesian approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taramelli, A.; Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Arosio, M.

    2016-12-01

    Marine drivers such as surge in the context of SLR, are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assesment, management and planning (e.g. the role of dune ridges in surge mitigation and climate adaptation) can enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing the vulnerability is a key concern of many SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables, etc.. To this end it is unclear how SLR, subsidence and erosion might affect coastal subsistence resources because of highly complex interactions and because of the subjective system of weighting many variables and their interaction within the systems. In this contribution, making the best use of many EO products, in situ data and modelling, we propose a multidimensional surge vulnerability assessment that aims at combining together geophysical and socioeconomic variable on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian approach. The final goal is providing insight in understanding how to quantify regulating ecosystem services.

  8. NetDiff - Bayesian model selection for differential gene regulatory network inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Thomas

    2016-12-16

    Differential networks allow us to better understand the changes in cellular processes that are exhibited in conditions of interest, identifying variations in gene regulation or protein interaction between, for example, cases and controls, or in response to external stimuli. Here we present a novel methodology for the inference of differential gene regulatory networks from gene expression microarray data. Specifically we apply a Bayesian model selection approach to compare models of conserved and varying network structure, and use Gaussian graphical models to represent the network structures. We apply a variational inference approach to the learning of Gaussian graphical models of gene regulatory networks, that enables us to perform Bayesian model selection that is significantly more computationally efficient than Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Our method is demonstrated to be more robust than independent analysis of data from multiple conditions when applied to synthetic network data, generating fewer false positive predictions of differential edges. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on real world gene expression microarray data by applying it to existing data from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases with and without mutations in C9orf72, and controls, where we are able to identify differential network interactions for further investigation.

  9. Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neng-pu Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley Decision Making, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

  10. Efficient Approximation of the Conditional Relative Entropy with Applications to Discriminative Learning of Bayesian Network Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Mateus

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose a minimum variance unbiased approximation to the conditional relative entropy of the distribution induced by the observed frequency estimates, for multi-classification tasks. Such approximation is an extension of a decomposable scoring criterion, named approximate conditional log-likelihood (aCLL, primarily used for discriminative learning of augmented Bayesian network classifiers. Our contribution is twofold: (i it addresses multi-classification tasks and not only binary-classification ones; and (ii it covers broader stochastic assumptions than uniform distribution over the parameters. Specifically, we considered a Dirichlet distribution over the parameters, which was experimentally shown to be a very good approximation to CLL. In addition, for Bayesian network classifiers, a closed-form equation is found for the parameters that maximize the scoring criterion.

  11. The threshold EM algorithm for parameter learning in bayesian network with incomplete data

    CERN Document Server

    Lamine, Fradj Ben; Mahjoub, Mohamed Ali

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BN) are used in a big range of applications but they have one issue concerning parameter learning. In real application, training data are always incomplete or some nodes are hidden. To deal with this problem many learning parameter algorithms are suggested foreground EM, Gibbs sampling and RBE algorithms. In order to limit the search space and escape from local maxima produced by executing EM algorithm, this paper presents a learning parameter algorithm that is a fusion of EM and RBE algorithms. This algorithm incorporates the range of a parameter into the EM algorithm. This range is calculated by the first step of RBE algorithm allowing a regularization of each parameter in bayesian network after the maximization step of the EM algorithm. The threshold EM algorithm is applied in brain tumor diagnosis and show some advantages and disadvantages over the EM algorithm.

  12. Real-time prediction of acute cardiovascular events using hardware-implemented Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylman, Wojciech; Waszyrowski, Tomasz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Kamiński, Marek; Trafidło, Tamara; Kulesza, Zbigniew; Kotas, Rafał; Marciniak, Paweł; Tomala, Radosław; Wenerski, Maciej

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents a decision support system that aims to estimate a patient׳s general condition and detect situations which pose an immediate danger to the patient׳s health or life. The use of this system might be especially important in places such as accident and emergency departments or admission wards, where a small medical team has to take care of many patients in various general conditions. Particular stress is laid on cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions, including those leading to sudden cardiac arrest. The proposed system is a stand-alone microprocessor-based device that works in conjunction with a standard vital signs monitor, which provides input signals such as temperature, blood pressure, pulseoxymetry, ECG, and ICG. The signals are preprocessed and analysed by a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, the core of which is based on Bayesian networks. The paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of the Bayesian network, both its structure and numerical specification.

  13. Nuclear Mass Predictions for the Crustal Composition of Neutron Stars: A Bayesian Neural Network Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Utama, R; Prosper, H B

    2016-01-01

    Besides their intrinsic nuclear-structure value, nuclear mass models are essential for astrophysical applications, such as r-process nucleosynthesis and neutron-star structure. To overcome the intrinsic limitations of existing "state-of-the-art" mass models, we propose a refinement based on a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) formalism. A novel BNN approach is implemented with the goal of optimizing mass residuals between theory and experiment. A significant improvement (of about 40%) in the mass predictions of existing models is obtained after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results are now accompanied by proper statistical errors. Finally, by constructing a "world average" of these predictions, a mass model is obtained that is used to predict the composition of the outer crust of a neutron star. The power of the Bayesian neural network method has been successfully demonstrated by a systematic improvement in the accuracy of the predictions of nuclear masses. Extension to other nuclear observables is a n...

  14. A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Yae Shin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable drought forecasting is necessary to develop mitigation plans to cope with severe drought. This study developed a probabilistic scheme for drought forecasting and outlook combined with quantification of the prediction uncertainties. The Bayesian network was mainly employed as a statistical scheme for probabilistic forecasting that can represent the cause-effect relationships between the variables. The structure of the Bayesian network-based drought forecasting (BNDF model was designed using the past, current, and forecasted drought condition. In this study, the drought conditions were represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI. The accuracy of forecasted SPIs was assessed by comparing the observed SPIs and confidence intervals (CIs, exhibiting the associated uncertainty. Then, this study suggested the drought outlook framework based on probabilistic drought forecasting results. The overall results provided sufficient agreement between the observed and forecasted drought conditions in the outlook framework.

  15. Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2016-12-01

    Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

  16. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

    2009-01-01

    This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

  17. Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole J.

    2010-01-01

    One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

  18. Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Zorrilla; Gema Carmona; África De la Hera; Consuelo Varela-Ortega; Pedro Martínez-Santos; John Bromley; Hans Jorgen. Henriksen

    2010-01-01

    Stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management. In participatory processes, stakeholders contribute by putting forward their own perspective, and they benefit by enhancing their understanding of the factors involved in decision making. A diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual app...

  19. Bayesian Network Assessment Method for Civil Aviation Safety Based on Flight Delays

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN) have been used to build ...

  20. Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    specific organization. Others have tried to solve this problem with technologies to quantify expertise, such as Bayesian belief networks [ Bibi 2004...planning, control, and operational management of the process‖ [ Bibi 2004]. The paper shows a generalized model usable for effort estimation. With...make it impossible to deploy them at an organizational level [Neil 1996, Bibi 2004, Ziv 1997, Wooff 2002]. A usable model should include only the

  1. Improved Bayesian Network Configurations for Probabilistic Identification of Degradation Mechanisms: Application to Chloride Ingress

    OpenAIRE

    Tran, Thanh-Binh; Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio; Schoefs, Franck

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Probabilistic modelling of deterioration processes is an important task to plan and quantify maintenance operations of structures. Relevant material and environmental model parameters could be determined from inspection data; but in practice the number of measures required for uncertainty quantification is conditioned by time-consuming and expensive tests. The main objective of this paper is to propose a method based on Bayesian networks for improving the identificatio...

  2. Statistical Analysis of Firearms/Toolmarks Interpretation of Cartridge Case Evidence Using IBIS and Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-24

    Cases , KB Morris, E Law, R Jefferys, & E Fabyanic, 67th AAFS Meeting, Orlando , FL, February 2015 Poster: Using likelihood ratios for source attribution...of Glock™ model 21 fired cartridge cases , C Hefner, & KB Morris, 67th AAFS Meeting, Orlando , FL, February 2015. (c) Presentations Number of...and known cartridge cases ) to assess the performance of the Bayesian networks created during the study . In all cases the sets were submitted in a

  3. Sensor Network Data Fault Detection using Hierarchical Bayesian Space-Time Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ni, Kevin; Pottie, G J

    2009-01-01

    We present a new application of hierarchical Bayesian space-time (HBST) modeling: data fault detection in sensor networks primarily used in environmental monitoring situations. To show the effectiveness of HBST modeling, we develop a rudimentary tagging system to mark data that does not fit with given models. Using this, we compare HBST modeling against first order linear autoregressive (AR) modeling, which is a commonly used alternative due to its simplicity. We show that while HBST is mo...

  4. Combat Identification of Synthetic Aperture Radar Images Using Contextual Features and Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    object. The second is unsupervised classification , in which the target is assigned to an unknown class. Jain et al.[17] defined the four best 10 known...0277):413–424, 1999. [34] Yang, He, Ben Ma, Qian Du, and Liangpei Zhang. “Comparison of spectral- spatial classification for urban hyperspectral ... classification accuracy at similar or extended operating conditions. Classification accuracy improvements achieved through Bayesian Belief Networks and the direct

  5. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Svend Rasmussen; Madsen, Anders L.; Mogens Lund

    2013-01-01

    The importance of risk management increases as farmers become more exposed to risk. But risk management is a difficult topic because income risk is the result of the complex interaction of multiple risk factors combined with the effect of an increasing array of possible risk management tools. In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be e...

  6. Study on uncertainty of geospatial semantic Web services composition based on broker approach and Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaodong; Cui, Weihong; Liu, Zhen; Ouyang, Fucheng

    2008-10-01

    The Semantic Web has a major weakness which is lacking of a principled means to represent and reason about uncertainty. This is also located in the services composition approaches such as BPEL4WS and Semantic Description Model. We analyze the uncertainty of Geospatial Web Service composition through mining the knowledge in historical records of composition based on Broker approach and Bayesian Networks. We proved this approach is effective and efficient through a sample scenario in this paper.

  7. Improved resolution and reliability in dynamic PET using Bayesian regularization of MRTM2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agn, Mikael; Svarer, Claus; Frokjaer, Vibe G.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model that regularizes dynamic PET data by using a Bayesian framework. We base the model on the well known two-parameter multilinear reference tissue method MRTM2 and regularize on the assumption that spatially close regions have similar parameters. The developed...

  8. Dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform: New methodology for extraction of repetitive transients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

    2017-05-01

    Thanks to some recent research works, dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform as new methodology for extraction of repetitive transients is proposed in this short communication to reveal fault signatures hidden in rotating machine. The main idea of the dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform is to iteratively estimate posterior parameters of wavelet transform via artificial observations and dynamic Bayesian inference. First, a prior wavelet parameter distribution can be established by one of many fast detection algorithms, such as the fast kurtogram, the improved kurtogram, the enhanced kurtogram, the sparsogram, the infogram, continuous wavelet transform, discrete wavelet transform, wavelet packets, multiwavelets, empirical wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, local mean decomposition, etc.. Second, artificial observations can be constructed based on one of many metrics, such as kurtosis, the sparsity measurement, entropy, approximate entropy, the smoothness index, a synthesized criterion, etc., which are able to quantify repetitive transients. Finally, given artificial observations, the prior wavelet parameter distribution can be posteriorly updated over iterations by using dynamic Bayesian inference. More importantly, the proposed new methodology can be extended to establish the optimal parameters required by many other signal processing methods for extraction of repetitive transients.

  9. Construction of monitoring model and algorithm design on passenger security during shipping based on improved Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

    2014-01-01

    A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping.

  10. A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

  11. Urban land use extraction from Very High Resolution remote sensing imagery using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mengmeng; Stein, Alfred; Bijker, Wietske; Zhan, Qingming

    2016-12-01

    Urban land use extraction from Very High Resolution (VHR) remote sensing images is important in many applications. This study explores a novel way to characterize the spatial arrangement of land cover features, and to integrate it with commonly used land use indicators. Characterization is done based upon building objects, taking their functional properties into account. We categorize the objects to a set of building types according to their geometrical, morphological, and contextual attributes. The spatial arrangement is characterized by quantifying the distribution of building types within a land use unit. Moreover, a set of existing land use indicators primarily based upon the coverage ratio and density of land cover features is investigated. A Bayesian network integrates the spatial arrangement and land use indicators, by which the urban land use is inferred. We applied urban land use extraction to a Pléiades VHR image over the city of Wuhan, China. Our results showed that integrating the spatial arrangement significantly improved the accuracy of urban land use extraction as compared with using land use indicators alone. Moreover, the Bayesian network method produced results comparable to other commonly used classifiers. We concluded that the proposed characterization of spatial arrangement and Bayesian network integration was effective for urban land use extraction from VHR images.

  12. Software Delivery Risk Management: Application of Bayesian Networks in Agile Software Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ancveire Ieva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The information technology industry cannot be imagined without large- or small-scale projects. They are implemented to develop systems enabling key business processes and improving performance and enterprise resource management. However, projects often experience various difficulties during their execution. These problems are usually related to the three objectives of the project – costs, quality and deadline. A way these challenges can be solved is project risk management. However, not always the main problems and their influencing factors can be easily identified. Usually there is a need for a more profound analysis of the problem situation. In this paper, we propose the use of a Bayesian Network concept for quantitative risk management in agile projects. The Bayesian Network is explored using a case study focusing on a project that faces difficulties during the software delivery process. We explain why an agile risk analysis is needed and assess the potential risk factors, which may occur during the project. Thereafter, we design the Bayesian Network to capture the actual problem situation and make suggestions how to improve the delivery process based on the measures to be taken to reduce the occurrence of project risks.

  13. Analyzing the effect of introducing a kurtosis parameter in Gaussian Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Main, P. [Dpto. Estadistica e I.O., Fac. Ciencias Matematicas, Univ. Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: pmain@mat.ucm.es; Navarro, H. [Dpto. de Estadistica, I.O. y Calc. Numerico, Fac. Ciencias, UNED, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2009-05-15

    Gaussian Bayesian networks are graphical models that represent the dependence structure of a multivariate normal random variable with a directed acyclic graph (DAG). In Gaussian Bayesian networks the output is usually the conditional distribution of some unknown variables of interest given a set of evidential nodes whose values are known. The problem of uncertainty about the assumption of normality is very common in applications. Thus a sensitivity analysis of the non-normality effect in our conclusions could be necessary. The aspect of non-normality to be considered is the tail behavior. In this line, the multivariate exponential power distribution is a family depending on a kurtosis parameter that goes from a leptokurtic to a platykurtic distribution with the normal as a mesokurtic distribution. Therefore a more general model can be considered using the multivariate exponential power distribution to describe the joint distribution of a Bayesian network, with a kurtosis parameter reflecting deviations from the normal distribution. The sensitivity of the conclusions to this perturbation is analyzed using the Kullback-Leibler divergence measure that provides an interesting formula to evaluate the effect.

  14. An object-oriented Bayesian network modeling the causes of leg disorders in finisher herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Birk; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Toft, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause-categories......The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause...... pigs (e.g. results from diagnostic tests) were used to estimate the most likely cause of leg disorders at herd level. As information to the model originated from two different levels, we used an object-oriented structure in order to ease the specification of the Bayesian network. Hence, a Herd class...... and a Pig class comprised the basic components of the object-oriented structure. The causal structure of the model was based on evidence from published literature. The conditional probabilities used in the model were elicited from experts within the field and from the published literature. To illustrate...

  15. Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

    2016-06-01

    This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port.

  16. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  17. Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Christine B; Stingo, Francesco C; Vannucci, Marina

    2016-03-30

    In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications because it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins that impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival.

  18. Efficient network reconstruction from dynamical cascades identifies small-world topology of neuronal avalanches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinisa Pajevic

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Cascading activity is commonly found in complex systems with directed interactions such as metabolic networks, neuronal networks, or disease spreading in social networks. Substantial insight into a system's organization can be obtained by reconstructing the underlying functional network architecture from the observed activity cascades. Here we focus on Bayesian approaches and reduce their computational demands by introducing the Iterative Bayesian (IB and Posterior Weighted Averaging (PWA methods. We introduce a special case of PWA, cast in nonparametric form, which we call the normalized count (NC algorithm. NC efficiently reconstructs random and small-world functional network topologies and architectures from subcritical, critical, and supercritical cascading dynamics and yields significant improvements over commonly used correlation methods. With experimental data, NC identified a functional and structural small-world topology and its corresponding traffic in cortical networks with neuronal avalanche dynamics.

  19. Bayesian uncertainty quantification and propagation in molecular dynamics simulations: A high performance computing framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelikopoulos, Panagiotis; Papadimitriou, Costas; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2012-10-01

    We present a Bayesian probabilistic framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainties in the parameters of force fields employed in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We propose a highly parallel implementation of the transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo for populating the posterior probability distribution of the MD force-field parameters. Efficient scheduling algorithms are proposed to handle the MD model runs and to distribute the computations in clusters with heterogeneous architectures. Furthermore, adaptive surrogate models are proposed in order to reduce the computational cost associated with the large number of MD model runs. The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed Bayesian framework is demonstrated in MD simulations of liquid and gaseous argon.

  20. Quantifying structural uncertainty on fault networks using a marked point process within a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Orhun; Caers, Jef Karel

    2017-08-01

    Faults are one of the building-blocks for subsurface modeling studies. Incomplete observations of subsurface fault networks lead to uncertainty pertaining to location, geometry and existence of faults. In practice, gaps in incomplete fault network observations are filled based on tectonic knowledge and interpreter's intuition pertaining to fault relationships. Modeling fault network uncertainty with realistic models that represent tectonic knowledge is still a challenge. Although methods that address specific sources of fault network uncertainty and complexities of fault modeling exists, a unifying framework is still lacking. In this paper, we propose a rigorous approach to quantify fault network uncertainty. Fault pattern and intensity information are expressed by means of a marked point process, marked Strauss point process. Fault network information is constrained to fault surface observations (complete or partial) within a Bayesian framework. A structural prior model is defined to quantitatively express fault patterns, geometries and relationships within the Bayesian framework. Structural relationships between faults, in particular fault abutting relations, are represented with a level-set based approach. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler is used to sample posterior fault network realizations that reflect tectonic knowledge and honor fault observations. We apply the methodology to a field study from Nankai Trough & Kumano Basin. The target for uncertainty quantification is a deep site with attenuated seismic data with only partially visible faults and many faults missing from the survey or interpretation. A structural prior model is built from shallow analog sites that are believed to have undergone similar tectonics compared to the site of study. Fault network uncertainty for the field is quantified with fault network realizations that are conditioned to structural rules, tectonic information and partially observed fault surfaces. We show the proposed

  1. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  2. Dynamical detection of network communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiles, Marcos G.; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Rubido, Nicolás

    2016-05-01

    A prominent feature of complex networks is the appearance of communities, also known as modular structures. Specifically, communities are groups of nodes that are densely connected among each other but connect sparsely with others. However, detecting communities in networks is so far a major challenge, in particular, when networks evolve in time. Here, we propose a change in the community detection approach. It underlies in defining an intrinsic dynamic for the nodes of the network as interacting particles (based on diffusive equations of motion and on the topological properties of the network) that results in a fast convergence of the particle system into clustered patterns. The resulting patterns correspond to the communities of the network. Since our detection of communities is constructed from a dynamical process, it is able to analyse time-varying networks straightforwardly. Moreover, for static networks, our numerical experiments show that our approach achieves similar results as the methodologies currently recognized as the most efficient ones. Also, since our approach defines an N-body problem, it allows for efficient numerical implementations using parallel computations that increase its speed performance.

  3. Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solakiewiz, Richard; Koshak, William

    2008-01-01

    Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian

  4. Dynamic causal modelling of electrographic seizure activity using Bayesian belief updating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooray, Gerald K; Sengupta, Biswa; Douglas, Pamela K; Friston, Karl

    2016-01-15

    Seizure activity in EEG recordings can persist for hours with seizure dynamics changing rapidly over time and space. To characterise the spatiotemporal evolution of seizure activity, large data sets often need to be analysed. Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) can be used to estimate the synaptic drivers of cortical dynamics during a seizure; however, the requisite (Bayesian) inversion procedure is computationally expensive. In this note, we describe a straightforward procedure, within the DCM framework, that provides efficient inversion of seizure activity measured with non-invasive and invasive physiological recordings; namely, EEG/ECoG. We describe the theoretical background behind a Bayesian belief updating scheme for DCM. The scheme is tested on simulated and empirical seizure activity (recorded both invasively and non-invasively) and compared with standard Bayesian inversion. We show that the Bayesian belief updating scheme provides similar estimates of time-varying synaptic parameters, compared to standard schemes, indicating no significant qualitative change in accuracy. The difference in variance explained was small (less than 5%). The updating method was substantially more efficient, taking approximately 5-10min compared to approximately 1-2h. Moreover, the setup of the model under the updating scheme allows for a clear specification of how neuronal variables fluctuate over separable timescales. This method now allows us to investigate the effect of fast (neuronal) activity on slow fluctuations in (synaptic) parameters, paving a way forward to understand how seizure activity is generated.

  5. The Dynamics of Semilattice Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Veliz-Cuba, Alan

    2010-01-01

    Time-discrete dynamical systems on a finite state space have been used with great success to model natural and engineered systems such as biological networks, social networks, and engineered control systems. They have the advantage of being intuitive and models can be easily simulated on a computer in most cases; however, few analytical tools beyond simulation are available. The motivation for this paper is to develop such tools for the analysis of models in biology. In this paper we have identified a broad class of discrete dynamical systems with a finite phase space for which one can derive strong results about their long-term dynamics in terms of properties of their dependency graphs. We classify completely the limit cycles of semilattice networks with strongly connected dependency graph and provide polynomial upper and lower bounds in the general case.

  6. Structurally dynamic spin market networks

    CERN Document Server

    Horváth, D

    2007-01-01

    The agent-based model of price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The resulting stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. For some properly selected parametric combination the network displays small-world phenomenon with high mean clustering coefficient and power-law node degree distribution. The mechanism of repeated random walk through network combined with a fitness recognition is proposed and tested to generate modular multi-leader market. The simulations suggest that dynamics of fitness is the slowest process that manifests itself in the volatility clustering of the log-price returns.

  7. Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Gong; Shi, Jing; Zhou, Junyi [Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, North Dakota State University, Dept. 2485, PO Box 6050, Fargo, ND 58108 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Short-term wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm operations and the integration of wind energy into the power grid system. Adaptive and reliable methods and techniques of wind speed forecasts are urgently needed in view of the stochastic nature of wind resource varying from time to time and from site to site. This paper presents a robust two-step methodology for accurate wind speed forecasting based on Bayesian combination algorithm, and three neural network models, namely, adaptive linear element network (ADALINE), backpropagation (BP) network, and radial basis function (RBF) network. The hourly average wind speed data from two North Dakota sites are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that, while the performances of the neural networks are not consistent in forecasting 1-h-ahead wind speed for the two sites or under different evaluation metrics, the Bayesian combination method can always provide adaptive, reliable and comparatively accurate forecast results. The proposed methodology provides a unified approach to tackle the challenging model selection issue in wind speed forecasting. (author)

  8. A bayesian network for comparing dissolved nitrogen exports from high rainfall cropping in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, David; Hannah, Murray; Robertson, Fiona; Rifkin, Penny

    2010-01-01

    Best management practices are often used to mitigate nutrient exports from agricultural systems. The effectiveness of these measures can vary depending on the natural attributes of the land in question (e.g., soil type, slope, and drainage class). In this paper we use a Bayesian Network to combine experiential data (expert opinion) and experimental data to compare farm-scale management for different high-rainfall cropping farms in the Hamilton region of southern Australia. In the absence of appropriate data for calibration, the network was tested against various scenarios in a predictive and in a diagnostic way. In general, the network suggests that transport factors related to total surface water (i.e., surface and near surface interflow) runoff, which are largely unrelated to Site Variables, have the biggest effect on N exports. Source factors, especially those related to fertilizer applications at planting, also appear to be important. However, the effects of fertilizer depend on when runoff occurs, and, of the major factors under management control, only the Fertilizer Rate at Sowing had a notable effect. When used in a predictive capacity, the network suggests that, compared with other scenarios, high N loads are likely when fertilizer applications at sowing and runoff coincide. In this paper we have used a Bayesian Network to describe many of the dependencies between some of the major factors affecting N exports from high rainfall cropping. This relatively simple approach has been shown to be a useful tool for comparing management practices in data-poor environments.

  9. Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

    2016-06-01

    Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

  10. Reconstruction of large-scale gene regulatory networks using Bayesian model averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Haseong; Gelenbe, Erol

    2012-09-01

    Gene regulatory networks provide the systematic view of molecular interactions in a complex living system. However, constructing large-scale gene regulatory networks is one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. Also large burst sets of biological data require a proper integration technique for reliable gene regulatory network construction. Here we present a new reverse engineering approach based on Bayesian model averaging which attempts to combine all the appropriate models describing interactions among genes. This Bayesian approach with a prior based on the Gibbs distribution provides an efficient means to integrate multiple sources of biological data. In a simulation study with maximum of 2000 genes, our method shows better sensitivity than previous elastic-net and Gaussian graphical models, with a fixed specificity of 0.99. The study also shows that the proposed method outperforms the other standard methods for a DREAM dataset generated by nonlinear stochastic models. In brain tumor data analysis, three large-scale networks consisting of 4422 genes were built using the gene expression of non-tumor, low and high grade tumor mRNA expression samples, along with DNA-protein binding affinity information. We found that genes having a large variation of degree distribution among the three tumor networks are the ones that see most involved in regulatory and developmental processes, which possibly gives a novel insight concerning conventional differentially expressed gene analysis.

  11. Bayesian Estimation of Random Coefficient Dynamic Factor Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hairong; Ferrer, Emilio

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have typically been applied to multivariate time series data collected from a single unit of study, such as a single individual or dyad. The goal of DFMs application is to capture dynamics of multivariate systems. When multiple units are available, however, DFMs are not suited to capture variations in dynamics across…

  12. Validation & verification of a Bayesian network model for aircraft vulnerability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schietekat, Sunelle

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available : Series B (Statistical Methodology), 50(2), pp. 157-224. 12th INCOSE SA Systems Engineering Conference ISBN 978-0-620-72719-8 Page 103 M&SCO. 2013. Verification, Validation, & Accreditation (VV&A) Recommended Practices Guide (RPG). Retrieved from U....S. DoD Modelling & Simulation Coordination Office. http://www.msco.mil/VVA_RPG.html (last accessed April 8, 2016). Pearl, J. 1988. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: Networks of plausible inference. Morgan Kaufmann. Sargent, R. G. 1981...

  13. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

  14. Analysis of lifestyle and metabolic predictors of visceral obesity with Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Morais Sérgio

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to provide a framework for the analysis of visceral obesity and its determinants in women, where complex inter-relationships are observed among lifestyle, nutritional and metabolic predictors. Thirty-four predictors related to lifestyle, adiposity, body fat distribution, blood lipids and adipocyte sizes have been considered as potential correlates of visceral obesity in women. To properly address the difficulties in managing such interactions given our limited sample of 150 women, bootstrapped Bayesian networks were constructed based on novel constraint-based learning methods that appeared recently in the statistical learning community. Statistical significance of edge strengths was evaluated and the less reliable edges were pruned to increase the network robustness. To allow accessible interpretation and integrate biological knowledge into the final network, several undirected edges were afterwards directed with physiological expertise according to relevant literature. Results Extensive experiments on synthetic data sampled from a known Bayesian network show that the algorithm, called Recursive Hybrid Parents and Children (RHPC, outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms that appeared in the recent literature. Regarding biological plausibility, we found that the inference results obtained with the proposed method were in excellent agreement with biological knowledge. For example, these analyses indicated that visceral adipose tissue accumulation is strongly related to blood lipid alterations independent of overall obesity level. Conclusions Bayesian Networks are a useful tool for investigating and summarizing evidence when complex relationships exist among predictors, in particular, as in the case of multifactorial conditions like visceral obesity, when there is a concurrent incidence for several variables, interacting in a complex manner. The source code and the data sets used for the empirical tests

  15. Experimental design and Bayesian networks for enhancement of delta-endotoxin production by Bacillus thuringiensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennouri, Karim; Ayed, Rayda Ben; Hassen, Hanen Ben; Mazzarello, Maura; Ottaviani, Ennio

    2015-12-01

    Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a Gram-positive bacterium. The entomopathogenic activity of Bt is related to the existence of the crystal consisting of protoxins, also called delta-endotoxins. In order to optimize and explain the production of delta-endotoxins of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, we studied seven medium components: soybean meal, starch, KH₂PO₄, K₂HPO₄, FeSO₄, MnSO₄, and MgSO₄and their relationships with the concentration of delta-endotoxins using an experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) and Bayesian networks modelling. The effects of the ingredients of the culture medium on delta-endotoxins production were estimated. The developed model showed that different medium components are important for the Bacillus thuringiensis fermentation. The most important factors influenced the production of delta-endotoxins are FeSO₄, K2HPO₄, starch and soybean meal. Indeed, it was found that soybean meal, K₂HPO₄, KH₂PO₄and starch also showed positive effect on the delta-endotoxins production. However, FeSO4 and MnSO4 expressed opposite effect. The developed model, based on Bayesian techniques, can automatically learn emerging models in data to serve in the prediction of delta-endotoxins concentrations. The constructed model in the present study implies that experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) joined with Bayesian networks method could be used for identification of effect variables on delta-endotoxins variation.

  16. Using mechanistic Bayesian networks to identify downstream targets of the sonic hedgehog pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Abhik; Tenzen, Toyoaki; McMahon, Andrew P; Woolf, Peter J

    2009-12-18

    The topology of a biological pathway provides clues as to how a pathway operates, but rationally using this topology information with observed gene expression data remains a challenge. We introduce a new general-purpose analytic method called Mechanistic Bayesian Networks (MBNs) that allows for the integration of gene expression data and known constraints within a signal or regulatory pathway to predict new downstream pathway targets. The MBN framework is implemented in an open-source Bayesian network learning package, the Python Environment for Bayesian Learning (PEBL). We demonstrate how MBNs can be used by modeling the early steps of the sonic hedgehog pathway using gene expression data from different developmental stages and genetic backgrounds in mouse. Using the MBN approach we are able to automatically identify many of the known downstream targets of the hedgehog pathway such as Gas1 and Gli1, along with a short list of likely targets such as Mig12. The MBN approach shown here can easily be extended to other pathways and data types to yield a more mechanistic framework for learning genetic regulatory models.

  17. Using mechanistic Bayesian networks to identify downstream targets of the Sonic Hedgehog pathway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMahon Andrew P

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The topology of a biological pathway provides clues as to how a pathway operates, but rationally using this topology information with observed gene expression data remains a challenge. Results We introduce a new general-purpose analytic method called Mechanistic Bayesian Networks (MBNs that allows for the integration of gene expression data and known constraints within a signal or regulatory pathway to predict new downstream pathway targets. The MBN framework is implemented in an open-source Bayesian network learning package, the Python Environment for Bayesian Learning (PEBL. We demonstrate how MBNs can be used by modeling the early steps of the sonic hedgehog pathway using gene expression data from different developmental stages and genetic backgrounds in mouse. Using the MBN approach we are able to automatically identify many of the known downstream targets of the hedgehog pathway such as Gas1 and Gli1, along with a short list of likely targets such as Mig12. Conclusions The MBN approach shown here can easily be extended to other pathways and data types to yield a more mechanistic framework for learning genetic regulatory models.

  18. Using Bayesian Belief Networks To Assess Volcano State from Multiple Monitoring Timeseries And Other Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2013-04-01

    When volcanoes exhibit unrest or become eruptively active, science-based decision support invariably is sought by civil authorities. Evidence available to scientists about a volcano's internal state is usually indirect, secondary or very nebulous.Advancement of volcano monitoring technology in recent decades has increased the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Monitoring timeseries may be interpreted in real time by observatory staff and are often later subjected to further analytic scrutiny by the research community at large. With increasing variety and resolution of data, interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence has become increasingly complex. In practice, interpretation of many timeseries involves familiarity with the idiosyncracies of the volcano, the monitoring techniques, the configuration of the recording instrumentation, observations from other datasets, and so on. Assimilation of this knowledge is necessary in order to select and apply the appropriate statistical techniques required to extract the required information. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple observations, model results and interpretations - and associated uncertainties - in a methodical manner. The formulation is usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic timeseries, the certainty with which inferences may be drawn, and how they can be updated dynamically. Such approaches provide a route to developing analytical interface(s) between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard

  19. Spontaneous recovery in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majdandzic, Antonio; Podobnik, Boris; Buldyrev, Sergey V.; Kenett, Dror Y.; Havlin, Shlomo; Eugene Stanley, H.

    2014-01-01

    Much research has been carried out to explore the structural properties and vulnerability of complex networks. Of particular interest are abrupt dynamic events that cause networks to irreversibly fail. However, in many real-world phenomena, such as brain seizures in neuroscience or sudden market crashes in finance, after an inactive period of time a significant part of the damaged network is capable of spontaneously becoming active again. The process often occurs repeatedly. To model this marked network recovery, we examine the effect of local node recoveries and stochastic contiguous spreading, and find that they can lead to the spontaneous emergence of macroscopic `phase-flipping' phenomena. As the network is of finite size and is stochastic, the fraction of active nodes z switches back and forth between the two network collective modes characterized by high network activity and low network activity. Furthermore, the system exhibits a strong hysteresis behaviour analogous to phase transitions near a critical point. We present real-world network data exhibiting phase switching behaviour in accord with the predictions of the model.

  20. Prediction of tissue-specific cis-regulatory modules using Bayesian networks and regression trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xiaoyu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In vertebrates, a large part of gene transcriptional regulation is operated by cis-regulatory modules. These modules are believed to be regulating much of the tissue-specificity of gene expression. Results We develop a Bayesian network approach for identifying cis-regulatory modules likely to regulate tissue-specific expression. The network integrates predicted transcription factor binding site information, transcription factor expression data, and target gene expression data. At its core is a regression tree modeling the effect of combinations of transcription factors bound to a module. A new unsupervised EM-like algorithm is developed to learn the parameters of the network, including the regression tree structure. Conclusion Our approach is shown to accurately identify known human liver and erythroid-specific modules. When applied to the prediction of tissue-specific modules in 10 different tissues, the network predicts a number of important transcription factor combinations whose concerted binding is associated to specific expression.