Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

Science.gov (United States)

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-02-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

Science.gov (United States)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

1995-01-01

A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Science.gov (United States)

M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

2011-01-01

We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

Sensor-Based Activity Recognition with Dynamically Added Context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiahui Wen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available An activity recognition system essentially processes raw sensor data and maps them into latent activity classes. Most of the previous systems are built with supervised learning techniques and pre-defined data sources, and result in static models. However, in realistic and dynamic environments, original data sources may fail and new data sources become available, a robust activity recognition system should be able to perform evolution automatically with dynamic sensor availability in dynamic environments. In this paper, we propose methods that automatically incorporate dynamically available data sources to adapt and refine the recognition system at run-time. The system is built upon ensemble classifiers which can automatically choose the features with the most discriminative power. Extensive experimental results with publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mayank N Vahia

Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

Fish population dynamics

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gulland, J. A

1977-01-01

This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

2010-01-01

We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bakanev Sergey ...

2012-10-01

Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

A system dynamics optimization framework to achieve population desired of average weight target

Science.gov (United States)

Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zulkepli, Jafri Haji; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura

2017-11-01

Obesity is becoming a serious problem in Malaysia as it has been rated as the highest among Asian countries. The aim of the paper is to propose a system dynamics (SD) optimization framework to achieve population desired weight target based on the changes in physical activity behavior and its association to weight and obesity. The system dynamics approach of stocks and flows diagram was used to quantitatively model the impact of both behavior on the population's weight and obesity trends. This work seems to bring this idea together and highlighting the interdependence of the various aspects of eating and physical activity behavior on the complex of human weight regulation system. The model was used as an experimentation vehicle to investigate the impacts of changes in physical activity on weight and prevalence of obesity implications. This framework paper provides evidence on the usefulness of SD optimization as a strategic decision making approach to assist in decision making related to obesity prevention. SD applied in this research is relatively new in Malaysia and has a high potential to apply to any feedback models that address the behavior cause to obesity.

Dynamical systems in population biology

CERN Document Server

Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-01-01

This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

Science.gov (United States)

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Tracking molecular dynamics without tracking: image correlation of photo-activation microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandžić, Elvis; Rossy, Jérémie; Gaus, Katharina

2015-01-01

Measuring protein dynamics in the plasma membrane can provide insights into the mechanisms of receptor signaling and other cellular functions. To quantify protein dynamics on the single molecule level over the entire cell surface, sophisticated approaches such as single particle tracking (SPT), photo-activation localization microscopy (PALM) and fluctuation-based analysis have been developed. However, analyzing molecular dynamics of fluorescent particles with intermittent excitation and low signal-to-noise ratio present at high densities has remained a challenge. We overcame this problem by applying spatio-temporal image correlation spectroscopy (STICS) analysis to photo-activated (PA) microscopy time series. In order to determine under which imaging conditions this approach is valid, we simulated PA images of diffusing particles in a homogeneous environment and varied photo-activation, reversible blinking and irreversible photo-bleaching rates. Further, we simulated data with high particle densities that populated mobile objects (such as adhesions and vesicles) that often interfere with STICS and fluctuation-based analysis. We demonstrated in experimental measurements that the diffusion coefficient of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) fused to PAGFP in live COS-7 cells can be determined in the plasma membrane and revealed differences in the time-dependent diffusion maps between wild-type and mutant Lck in activated T cells. In summary, we have developed a new analysis approach for live cell photo-activation microscopy data based on image correlation spectroscopy to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of single proteins. (paper)

Tracking molecular dynamics without tracking: image correlation of photo-activation microscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Pandžić, Elvis; Rossy, Jérémie; Gaus, Katharina

2015-03-01

Measuring protein dynamics in the plasma membrane can provide insights into the mechanisms of receptor signaling and other cellular functions. To quantify protein dynamics on the single molecule level over the entire cell surface, sophisticated approaches such as single particle tracking (SPT), photo-activation localization microscopy (PALM) and fluctuation-based analysis have been developed. However, analyzing molecular dynamics of fluorescent particles with intermittent excitation and low signal-to-noise ratio present at high densities has remained a challenge. We overcame this problem by applying spatio-temporal image correlation spectroscopy (STICS) analysis to photo-activated (PA) microscopy time series. In order to determine under which imaging conditions this approach is valid, we simulated PA images of diffusing particles in a homogeneous environment and varied photo-activation, reversible blinking and irreversible photo-bleaching rates. Further, we simulated data with high particle densities that populated mobile objects (such as adhesions and vesicles) that often interfere with STICS and fluctuation-based analysis. We demonstrated in experimental measurements that the diffusion coefficient of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) fused to PAGFP in live COS-7 cells can be determined in the plasma membrane and revealed differences in the time-dependent diffusion maps between wild-type and mutant Lck in activated T cells. In summary, we have developed a new analysis approach for live cell photo-activation microscopy data based on image correlation spectroscopy to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of single proteins.

The dynamic influence of human resources on evidence-based intervention sustainability and population outcomes: an agent-based modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

McKay, Virginia R; Hoffer, Lee D; Combs, Todd B; Margaret Dolcini, M

2018-06-05

Sustaining evidence-based interventions (EBIs) is an ongoing challenge for dissemination and implementation science in public health and social services. Characterizing the relationship among human resource capacity within an agency and subsequent population outcomes is an important step to improving our understanding of how EBIs are sustained. Although human resource capacity and population outcomes are theoretically related, examining them over time within real-world experiments is difficult. Simulation approaches, especially agent-based models, offer advantages that complement existing methods. We used an agent-based model to examine the relationships among human resources, EBI delivery, and population outcomes by simulating provision of an EBI through a hypothetical agency and its staff. We used data from existing studies examining a widely implemented HIV prevention intervention to inform simulation design, calibration, and validity. Once we developed a baseline model, we used the model as a simulated laboratory by systematically varying three human resource variables: the number of staff positions, the staff turnover rate, and timing in training. We tracked the subsequent influence on EBI delivery and the level of population risk over time to describe the overall and dynamic relationships among these variables. Higher overall levels of human resource capacity at an agency (more positions) led to more extensive EBI delivery over time and lowered population risk earlier in time. In simulations representing the typical human resource investments, substantial influences on population risk were visible after approximately 2 years and peaked around 4 years. Human resources, especially staff positions, have an important impact on EBI sustainability and ultimately population health. A minimum level of human resources based on the context (e.g., size of the initial population and characteristics of the EBI) is likely needed for an EBI to have a meaningful impact on

Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

Coupled stream and population dynamics: Modeling the role beaver (Castor canadensis) play in generating juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, C.; Bouwes, N.; Wheaton, J. M.; Pollock, M.

2013-12-01

Over the past several centuries, the population of North American Beaver has been dramatically reduced through fur trapping. As a result, the geomorphic impacts long-term beaver occupancy and activity can have on fluvial systems have been lost, both from the landscape and from our collective memory such that physical and biological models of floodplain system function neither consider nor have the capacity to incorporate the role beaver can play in structuring the dynamics of streams. Concomitant with the decline in beaver populations was an increasing pressure on streams and floodplains through human activity, placing numerous species of stream rearing fishes in peril, most notably the ESA listing of trout and salmon populations across the entirety of the Western US. The rehabilitation of stream systems is seen as one of the primary means by which population and ecosystem recovery can be achieved, yet the methods of stream rehabilitation are applied almost exclusively with the expected outcome of a static idealized stream planform, occasionally with an acknowledgement of restoring processes rather than form and only rarely with the goal of a beaver dominated riverscape. We have constructed an individual based model of trout and beaver populations that allows the exploration of fish population dynamics as a function of stream habitat quality and quantity. We based the simulation tool on Bridge Creek (John Day River basin, Oregon) where we have implemented a large-scale restoration experiment using wooden posts to provide beavers with stable platforms for dam building and to simulate the dams themselves. Extensive monitoring captured geomorphic and riparian changes, as well as fish and beaver population responses; information we use to parameterize the model as to the geomorphic and fish response to dam building beavers. In the simulation environment, stream habitat quality and quantity can be manipulated directly through rehabilitation actions and indirectly

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Validity and predictive ability of the juvenile arthritis disease activity score based on CRP versus ESR in a Nordic population-based setting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nordal, E B; Zak, M; Aalto, K

2012-01-01

To compare the juvenile arthritis disease activity score (JADAS) based on C reactive protein (CRP) (JADAS-CRP) with JADAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (JADAS-ESR) and to validate JADAS in a population-based setting.......To compare the juvenile arthritis disease activity score (JADAS) based on C reactive protein (CRP) (JADAS-CRP) with JADAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (JADAS-ESR) and to validate JADAS in a population-based setting....

Mineralization dynamics of metakaolin-based alkali-activated cements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gevaudan, Juan Pablo; Campbell, Kate M.; Kane, Tyler J.; Shoemaker, Richard K.; Srubar, Wil V.

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the early-age dynamics of mineral formation in metakaolin-based alkali-activated cements. The effects of silica availability and alkali content on mineral formation were investigated via X-ray diffraction and solid-state 29 Si magic-angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 2, 7, 14, and 28 days. Silica availability was controlled by using either liquid- (immediate) or solid-based (gradual) sodium silicate supplements. Mineral (zeolitic) and amorphous microstructural characteristics were correlated with observed changes in bulk physical properties, namely shrinkage, density, and porosity. Results demonstrate that, while alkali content controls the mineralization in immediately available silica systems, alkali content controls the silica availability in gradually available silica systems. Immediate silica availability generally leads to a more favorable mineral formation as demonstrated by correlated improvements in bulk physical properties.

A model based approach in observing the activity of neuronal populations for the prediction of epileptic seizures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chong, M.S.; Nesic, D.; Kuhlmann, L.; Postoyan, R.; Varsavsky, A.; Cook, M.

2010-01-01

Full text: Epilepsy is a common neurological disease that affects 0.5-1 % of the world's population. In cases where known treatments cannot achieve complete recovery, seizure prediction is essential so that preventive measures can be undertaken to prevent resultant injury. The elcctroencephalogram (EEG) is a widely used diagnostic tool for epilepsy. However, the EEG does not provide a detailed view of the underlying seizure causing neuronal mechanisms. Knowing the dynamics of the neuronal population is useful because tracking the evolution of the neuronal mechanisms will allow us to track the brain's progression from interictal to ictal state. Wendling and colleagues proposed a parameterised mathematical model that represents the activity of interconnected neuronal populations. By modifying the parameters, this model is able to reproduce signals that are very similar to the real EEG depicting commonly observed patterns during interictal and ictal periods. The transition from non-seizure to seizure activity, as seen in the EEG. is hypothesised to be due to the impairment of inhibition. Using Wendling's model, we designed a deterministic nonlinear estimator to recover the average membrane potential of the neuronal populations from a single channel EEG signal. for any fixed and known parameter values. Our nonlinear estimator is analytically proven to asymptotically converge to the true state of the model and illustrated in simulations. We were able to computationally observe the dynamics of the three neuronal populations described in the model: excitatory, fast and slow inhibitory populations. This forms a first step towards the prediction of epileptic seiwres. (author)

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

Science.gov (United States)

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

2018-03-25

be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within-individual and among-individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco-evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta-populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system-specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual-based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co-exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to spatio-temporal seasonal environmental variation and change. © 2018 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Coherent versus incoherent dynamics in InAs quantum-dot active wave guides

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borri, Paola; Langbein, W.; Hvam, Jørn Märcher

2001-01-01

Coherent dynamics measured by time-resolved four-wave mixing is compared to incoherent population dynamics measured by differential transmission spectroscopy on the ground-state transition at room temperature of two types of InAs-based quantum dots with different confinement energies. The measure....... The measurements are performed with heterodyne detection on quantum-dot active wave guides to enhance the light-matter interaction length. An elastic nature of the measured dephasing is revealed which is independent of the dot energy level scheme....

Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

2016-06-01

We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

Population dynamics in variable environments

CERN Document Server

Tuljapurkar, Shripad

1990-01-01

Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

Population dynamical responses to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

2008-01-01

approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

Mineralization dynamics of metakaolin-based alkali-activated cements

Science.gov (United States)

Gevaudan, Juan Pablo; Campbell, Kate M.; Kane, Tyler; Shoemaker, Richard K.; Srubar, Wil V.

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the early-age dynamics of mineral formation in metakaolin-based alkali-activated cements. The effects of silica availability and alkali content on mineral formation were investigated via X-ray diffraction and solid-state 29Si magic-angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 2, 7, 14, and 28 days. Silica availability was controlled by using either liquid- (immediate) or solid-based (gradual) sodium silicate supplements. Mineral (zeolitic) and amorphous microstructural characteristics were correlated with observed changes in bulk physical properties, namely shrinkage, density, and porosity. Results demonstrate that, while alkali content controls the mineralization in immediately available silica systems, alkali content controls the silica availability in gradually available silica systems. Immediate silica availability generally leads to a more favorable mineral formation as demonstrated by correlated improvements in bulk physical properties.

Dynamical networks: Finding, measuring, and tracking neural population activity using network science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark D. Humphries

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Systems neuroscience is in a headlong rush to record from as many neurons at the same time as possible. As the brain computes and codes using neuron populations, it is hoped these data will uncover the fundamentals of neural computation. But with hundreds, thousands, or more simultaneously recorded neurons come the inescapable problems of visualizing, describing, and quantifying their interactions. Here I argue that network science provides a set of scalable, analytical tools that already solve these problems. By treating neurons as nodes and their interactions as links, a single network can visualize and describe an arbitrarily large recording. I show that with this description we can quantify the effects of manipulating a neural circuit, track changes in population dynamics over time, and quantitatively define theoretical concepts of neural populations such as cell assemblies. Using network science as a core part of analyzing population recordings will thus provide both qualitative and quantitative advances to our understanding of neural computation.

Market Squid Population Dynamics

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weide, van der R.Y.

1993-01-01

The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

A population dynamics model was developed to

Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

2012-12-01

The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

Science.gov (United States)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

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Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alvaro Sanchez

Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

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Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

2014-05-06

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lissovoi, Andrei

the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε......This thesis presents new running time analyses of nature-inspired algorithms on various dynamic problems. It aims to identify and analyse the features of algorithms and problem classes which allow efficient optimization to occur in the presence of dynamic behaviour. We consider the following...... settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...

Epidemiology of leisure-time physical activity: a population-based study in southern Brazil

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Juvenal Soares Dias-da-Costa

Full Text Available We aimed to measure the prevalence of physical inactivity (PI during leisure time and to identify variables associated with it in a southern Brazilian adult population. A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out, covering a multiple-stage sample of 1,968 subjects aged 20-69 years. Weekly participation in leisure-time physical activity was addressed. For each activity, energy expenditure was calculated using data on duration, metabolic equivalent, and body weight. Energy expenditures of individual activities were summed to give a weekly total. PI was defined as fewer than 1,000 kilocalories per week. The prevalence of PI was 80.7% (95%CI: 78.9-82.4. After adjusted analyses, the following variables were positively associated with the outcome: female gender, age, living with a partner, and smoking. Schooling and economic status were inversely associated with PI. Chronically undernourished individuals were significantly more likely to be inactive. We found no differences according to skin color or alcohol consumption. In conclusion, the prevalence of PI in this adult population was higher than in populations from developed countries, but the associated variables were similar.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

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Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

2010-07-27

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

2011-01-01

Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms

Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

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Joseph Xu Zhou

Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

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Zak Frentz

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

Cost-effectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis - A population-based dynamic approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Welte, R; Kretzschmar, M; Leidl, R; Van den Hoek, A; Jager, JC; Postma, MJ

2000-01-01

Background: Models commonly used for the economic assessment of chamydial screening programs do not consider population effects. Goal: To develop a novel dynamic approach for the economic evaluation of chlamydial prevention measures and to determine the cost-effectiveness of a general

Population-wide distributions of neural activity during perceptual decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Machens, Christian

2018-01-01

Cortical activity involves large populations of neurons, even when it is limited to functionally coherent areas. Electrophysiological recordings, on the other hand, involve comparatively small neural ensembles, even when modern-day techniques are used. Here we review results which have started to fill the gap between these two scales of inquiry, by shedding light on the statistical distributions of activity in large populations of cells. We put our main focus on data recorded in awake animals that perform simple decision-making tasks and consider statistical distributions of activity throughout cortex, across sensory, associative, and motor areas. We transversally review the complexity of these distributions, from distributions of firing rates and metrics of spike-train structure, through distributions of tuning to stimuli or actions and of choice signals, and finally the dynamical evolution of neural population activity and the distributions of (pairwise) neural interactions. This approach reveals shared patterns of statistical organization across cortex, including: (i) long-tailed distributions of activity, where quasi-silence seems to be the rule for a majority of neurons; that are barely distinguishable between spontaneous and active states; (ii) distributions of tuning parameters for sensory (and motor) variables, which show an extensive extrapolation and fragmentation of their representations in the periphery; and (iii) population-wide dynamics that reveal rotations of internal representations over time, whose traces can be found both in stimulus-driven and internally generated activity. We discuss how these insights are leading us away from the notion of discrete classes of cells, and are acting as powerful constraints on theories and models of cortical organization and population coding. PMID:23123501

Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

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Thomas Anung Basuki

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Penelope Holland

Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

2010-01-01

researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

Science.gov (United States)

Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

2012-06-01

Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

Implementation of a model of dynamic activity-travel rescheduling decisions: an agent-based micro-simulation framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arentze, T.A.; Pelizaro, C.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2005-01-01

Recent progress in activity-based analysis has witnessed the development of some dynamic models of activity-travel rescheduling decisions. Most of this work involved descriptive analyses. Timmermans et al. (2001) elaborated this work and developed a more comprehensive theory and model of activity

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

Science.gov (United States)

Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

2008-09-01

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

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Giovanni Dalmasso

Full Text Available Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy. While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1 mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2 restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3 maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4 our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

Science.gov (United States)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

Science.gov (United States)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

KAUST Repository

Bressloff, Paul C.

2010-11-03

We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Factors associated with quality of life in active childhood epilepsy: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, Colin; Atkinson, Patricia; Das, Krishna B; Chin, Richard F M; Aylett, Sarah E; Burch, Victoria; Gillberg, Christopher; Scott, Rod C; Neville, Brian G R

2015-05-01

Improving health-related quality of life (HRQOL), rather than just reducing seizures, should be the principal goal in comprehensive management of childhood epilepsy. There is a lack of population-based data on predictors of HRQOL in childhood epilepsy. The Children with Epilepsy in Sussex Schools (CHESS) study is a prospective, population-based study involving school-aged children (5-15 years) with active epilepsy (on one or more AED and/or had a seizure in the last year) in a defined geographical area in the UK. Eighty-five of 115 (74% of eligible population) children underwent comprehensive psychological assessment including measures of cognition, behaviour, and motor functioning. Parents of the children completed the Quality of Life in Childhood Epilepsy (QOLCE).Clinical data on eligible children was extracted using a standardised pro forma. Linear regression analysis was undertaken to identify factors significantly associated with total Quality of Life in this population. Factors independently significantly associated (p QOLCE scores were seizures before 24 months, cognitive impairment (IQ QOLCE when children with IQ < 50 were excluded from analysis. The majority of factors associated with parent reported HRQOL in active childhood epilepsy are related to neurobehavioural and/or psychosocial aspects of the condition. Copyright © 2015 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

OpenAIRE

Martin, Gress

2011-01-01

Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

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Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

2014-08-01

Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

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Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Promoting Physical Activity With Group Pictures. Affiliation-Based Visual Communication for High-Risk Populations.

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Reifegerste, Doreen; Rossmann, Constanze

2017-02-01

Past research in social and health psychology has shown that affiliation motivation is associated with health behavior, especially for high-risk populations, suggesting that targeting this motivation could be a promising strategy to promote physical activity. However, the effects that affiliation appeals (e.g., pictures depicting companionship during physical activities) and accompanying slogans have on motivating physical activity have been largely unexplored. Hence, our two studies experimentally tested the effects of exposure to affiliation-based pictures for overweight or less active people, as well as the moderating effect of affiliation motivation. The results of these two studies give some indication that group pictures (with or without an accompanying slogan) can be an effective strategy to improve high-risk populations' attitudes, self-efficacy, and intentions to engage in physical activity. Affiliation motivation as a personality trait did not interact with these effects, but was positively associated with attitudes, independent of the group picture effect.

Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stott, Iain

2016-01-01

Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

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Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

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Gilberto González Parra

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

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Qinfeng eGuo

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

Host–virus dynamics and subcellular controls of cell fate in a natural coccolithophore population

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Vardi, Assaf; Haramaty, Liti; Van Mooy, Benjamin A. S.; Fredricks, Helen F.; Kimmance, Susan A.; Larsen, Aud; Bidle, Kay D.

2012-01-01

Marine viruses are major evolutionary and biogeochemical drivers in marine microbial foodwebs. However, an in-depth understanding of the cellular mechanisms and the signal transduction pathways mediating host–virus interactions during natural bloom dynamics has remained elusive. We used field-based mesocosms to examine the “arms race” between natural populations of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi and its double-stranded DNA-containing coccolithoviruses (EhVs). Specifically, we examined the dynamics of EhV infection and its regulation of cell fate over the course of bloom development and demise using a diverse suite of molecular tools and in situ fluorescent staining to target different levels of subcellular resolution. We demonstrate the concomitant induction of reactive oxygen species, caspase-specific activity, metacaspase expression, and programmed cell death in response to the accumulation of virus-derived glycosphingolipids upon infection of natural E. huxleyi populations. These subcellular responses to viral infection simultaneously resulted in the enhanced production of transparent exopolymer particles, which can facilitate aggregation and stimulate carbon flux. Our results not only corroborate the critical role for glycosphingolipids and programmed cell death in regulating E. huxleyi–EhV interactions, but also elucidate promising molecular biomarkers and lipid-based proxies for phytoplankton host–virus interactions in natural systems. PMID:23134731

Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

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Lilia M. Ladino

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

A bi-population based scheme for an explicit exploration/exploitation trade-off in dynamic environments

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Ben-Romdhane, Hajer; Krichen, Saoussen; Alba, Enrique

2017-05-01

Optimisation in changing environments is a challenging research topic since many real-world problems are inherently dynamic. Inspired by the natural evolution process, evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are among the most successful and promising approaches that have addressed dynamic optimisation problems. However, managing the exploration/exploitation trade-off in EAs is still a prevalent issue, and this is due to the difficulties associated with the control and measurement of such a behaviour. The proposal of this paper is to achieve a balance between exploration and exploitation in an explicit manner. The idea is to use two equally sized populations: the first one performs exploration while the second one is responsible for exploitation. These tasks are alternated from one generation to the next one in a regular pattern, so as to obtain a balanced search engine. Besides, we reinforce the ability of our algorithm to quickly adapt after cnhanges by means of a memory of past solutions. Such a combination aims to restrain the premature convergence, to broaden the search area, and to speed up the optimisation. We show through computational experiments, and based on a series of dynamic problems and many performance measures, that our approach improves the performance of EAs and outperforms competing algorithms.

Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

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Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2017-02-01

In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

Genetic algorithms with memory- and elitism-based immigrants in dynamic environments.

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Yang, Shengxiang

2008-01-01

In recent years the genetic algorithm community has shown a growing interest in studying dynamic optimization problems. Several approaches have been devised. The random immigrants and memory schemes are two major ones. The random immigrants scheme addresses dynamic environments by maintaining the population diversity while the memory scheme aims to adapt genetic algorithms quickly to new environments by reusing historical information. This paper investigates a hybrid memory and random immigrants scheme, called memory-based immigrants, and a hybrid elitism and random immigrants scheme, called elitism-based immigrants, for genetic algorithms in dynamic environments. In these schemes, the best individual from memory or the elite from the previous generation is retrieved as the base to create immigrants into the population by mutation. This way, not only can diversity be maintained but it is done more efficiently to adapt genetic algorithms to the current environment. Based on a series of systematically constructed dynamic problems, experiments are carried out to compare genetic algorithms with the memory-based and elitism-based immigrants schemes against genetic algorithms with traditional memory and random immigrants schemes and a hybrid memory and multi-population scheme. The sensitivity analysis regarding some key parameters is also carried out. Experimental results show that the memory-based and elitism-based immigrants schemes efficiently improve the performance of genetic algorithms in dynamic environments.

Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

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Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) dynamics determine cell fate in the yeast mating response.

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Li, Yang; Roberts, Julie; AkhavanAghdam, Zohreh; Hao, Nan

2017-12-15

In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae , the exposure to mating pheromone activates a prototypic mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade and triggers a dose-dependent differentiation response. Whereas a high pheromone dose induces growth arrest and formation of a shmoo-like morphology in yeast cells, lower pheromone doses elicit elongated cell growth. Previous population-level analysis has revealed that the MAPK Fus3 plays an important role in mediating this differentiation switch. To further investigate how Fus3 controls the fate decision process at the single-cell level, we developed a specific translocation-based reporter for monitoring Fus3 activity in individual live cells. Using this reporter, we observed strikingly different dynamic patterns of Fus3 activation in single cells differentiated into distinct fates. Cells committed to growth arrest and shmoo formation exhibited sustained Fus3 activation. In contrast, most cells undergoing elongated growth showed either a delayed gradual increase or pulsatile dynamics of Fus3 activity. Furthermore, we found that chemically perturbing Fus3 dynamics with a specific inhibitor could effectively redirect the mating differentiation, confirming the causative role of Fus3 dynamics in driving cell fate decisions. MAPKs mediate proliferation and differentiation signals in mammals and are therapeutic targets in many cancers. Our results highlight the importance of MAPK dynamics in regulating single-cell responses and open up the possibility that MAPK signaling dynamics could be a pharmacological target in therapeutic interventions. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Active and Dynamic Nanomaterials Based on Active Biomolecules

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Koch, Steven J.; Rivera, Susan B.; Boal, Andrew K.; Edwards, J. Matthew; Bauer, Joseph M.; Manginell, Ronald P.; Liu, Jun; Bunker, Bruce C.; Bachand, George D.

2004-03-01

Living organisms have evolved dynamic and adaptable materials that fundamentally differ from synthetic materials. These biomaterials use chemical energy to drive non-equilibrium assembly processes, and to reconfigure in response to external stimuli or life cycle changes. Two striking examples are the diatom's active assembly of silica into a patterned cytoskeleton, and the chameleon's active transport of pigment particles to rapidly change skin color. Advances in molecular biology and nanoscale materials synthesis now present the opportunity for integrating biomolecules with synthetic components to produce new types of materials with novel assembly and adaptation capabilities. Our group has begun utilizing kinesin motor proteins and microtubules (MTs) to explore the construction of biomimetic materials. Initial work has focused on characterizing and engineering the properties of the biomolecules for robust performance in artificial systems. We have characterized the biochemical and biophysical properties of a kinesin motor protein from a thermostable fungus, and have evaluated strategies for stabilizing and functionalizing the MTs. We also have developed strategies for directed transport of MT shuttles, and for controlling the loading and unloading of nanoscale cargo.

Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

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Sanja Radonjić

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijster, T.; Warren, N.; Heederik, D.; Tielemans, E.

2009-01-01

Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal

Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

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Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

2017-03-01

Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

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Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

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Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

Comparison of the dynamics of neural interactions in integrate-and-fire networks with current-based and conductance-based synapses

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Stefano eCavallari

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Models of networks of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire neurons (LIF are a widely used tool for theoretical investigations of brain function. These models have been used both with current- and conductance-based synapses. However, the differences in the dynamics expressed by these two approaches have been so far mainly studied at the single neuron level. To investigate how these synaptic models affect network activity, we compared the single-neuron and neural population dynamics of conductance-based networks (COBN and current-based networks (CUBN of LIF neurons. These networks were endowed with sparse excitatory and inhibitory recurrent connections, and were tested in conditions including both low- and high-conductance states. We developed a novel procedure to obtain comparable networks by properly tuning the synaptic parameters not shared by the models. The so defined comparable networks displayed an excellent and robust match of first order statistics (average single neuron firing rates and average frequency spectrum of network activity. However, these comparable networks showed profound differences in the second order statistics of neural population interactions and in the modulation of these properties by external inputs. The correlation between inhibitory and excitatory synaptic currents and the cross-neuron correlation between synaptic inputs, membrane potentials and spike trains were stronger and more stimulus-sensitive in the COBN. Because of these properties, the spike train correlation carried more information about the strength of the input in the COBN, although the firing rates were equally informative in both network models. Moreover, COBN showed stronger neuronal population synchronization in the gamma band, and their spectral information about the network input was higher and spread over a broader range of frequencies. These results suggest that second order properties of network dynamics depend strongly on the choice of synaptic model.

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

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Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

2015-01-01

Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

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Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

2013-03-01

Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Restrepo, Juan M [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Rael, Rosalyn C [UNIV OF ARIZONA

2009-01-01

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

2016-01-01

Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

Activation of professional and personal network relations when experiencing a symptom: a population-based cross-sectional study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elnegaard, Sandra; Andersen, Rikke Sand; Pedersen, Anette Fischer

2017-01-01

Objective To describe patterns of disclosure of symptoms experienced among people in the general population to persons in their personal and/or professional network. Design A population-based cross-sectional study. Data were collected from a web-based survey. Setting The general population...... in Denmark. Participants 100 000 individuals randomly selected, representative of the adult Danish population aged ≥20 years were invited. Approximately 5% were not eligible for inclusion. 49 706 (men=23 240; women=26 466) of 95 253 eligible individuals completed the questionnaire; yielding a response rate...... of 52.2%. Individuals completing all questions regarding social network relations form the study base (n=44 313). Primary and secondary outcome measures Activation of personal and/or professional relations when experiencing a symptom. Results The 44 313 individuals reported in total 260 079 symptom...

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmieder, R.W.

1995-07-01

The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

2002-02-01

Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

2001-01-01

Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

2001-01-01

Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

2018-02-01

A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

2017-12-26

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Ferrandis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

2015-11-01

Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

2018-09-01

A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

2014-01-01

with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

Science.gov (United States)

Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

2017-12-01

In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of

Multi-Day Activity Scheduling Reactions to Planned Activities and Future Events in a Dynamic Model of Activity-Travel Behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.; Timmermans, H.

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of

Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

2000-01-01

The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

Dynamic Output Feedback Based Active Decentralized Fault-Tolerant Control for Reconfigurable Manipulator with Concurrent Failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanchun Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to describe an active decentralized fault-tolerant control (ADFTC strategy based on dynamic output feedback for reconfigurable manipulators with concurrent actuator and sensor failures. Consider each joint module of the reconfigurable manipulator as a subsystem, and treat the fault as the unknown input of the subsystem. Firstly, by virtue of linear matrix inequality (LMI technique, the decentralized proportional-integral observer (DPIO is designed to estimate and compensate the sensor fault online; hereafter, the compensated system model could be derived. Then, the actuator fault is estimated similarly by another DPIO using LMI as well, and the sufficient condition of the existence of H∞ fault-tolerant controller in the dynamic output feedback is presented for the compensated system model. Furthermore, the dynamic output feedback controller is presented based on the estimation of actuator fault to realize active fault-tolerant control. Finally, two 3-DOF reconfigurable manipulators with different configurations are employed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme in simulation. The main advantages of the proposed scheme lie in that it can handle the concurrent faults act on the actuator and sensor on the same joint module, as well as there is no requirement of fault detection and isolation process; moreover, it is more feasible to the modularity of the reconfigurable manipulator.

Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Komarov

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

Science.gov (United States)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

1987-01-01

1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Zhao

Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Distinct Temporal Coordination of Spontaneous Population Activity between Basal Forebrain and Auditory Cortex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josue G. Yague

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The basal forebrain (BF has long been implicated in attention, learning and memory, and recent studies have established a causal relationship between artificial BF activation and arousal. However, neural ensemble dynamics in the BF still remains unclear. Here, recording neural population activity in the BF and comparing it with simultaneously recorded cortical population under both anesthetized and unanesthetized conditions, we investigate the difference in the structure of spontaneous population activity between the BF and the auditory cortex (AC in mice. The AC neuronal population show a skewed spike rate distribution, a higher proportion of short (≤80 ms inter-spike intervals (ISIs and a rich repertoire of rhythmic firing across frequencies. Although the distribution of spontaneous firing rate in the BF is also skewed, a proportion of short ISIs can be explained by a Poisson model at short time scales (≤20 ms and spike count correlations are lower compared to AC cells, with optogenetically identified cholinergic cell pairs showing exceptionally higher correlations. Furthermore, a smaller fraction of BF neurons shows spike-field entrainment across frequencies: a subset of BF neurons fire rhythmically at slow (≤6 Hz frequencies, with varied phase preferences to ongoing field potentials, in contrast to a consistent phase preference of AC populations. Firing of these slow rhythmic BF cells is correlated to a greater degree than other rhythmic BF cell pairs. Overall, the fundamental difference in the structure of population activity between the AC and BF is their temporal coordination, in particular their operational timescales. These results suggest that BF neurons slowly modulate downstream populations whereas cortical circuits transmit signals on multiple timescales. Thus, the characterization of the neural ensemble dynamics in the BF provides further insight into the neural mechanisms, by which brain states are regulated.

Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doslic, N.

2006-01-01

We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

2017-01-01

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

A Human Activity Recognition System Based on Dynamic Clustering of Skeleton Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Manzi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Human activity recognition is an important area in computer vision, with its wide range of applications including ambient assisted living. In this paper, an activity recognition system based on skeleton data extracted from a depth camera is presented. The system makes use of machine learning techniques to classify the actions that are described with a set of a few basic postures. The training phase creates several models related to the number of clustered postures by means of a multiclass Support Vector Machine (SVM, trained with Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO. The classification phase adopts the X-means algorithm to find the optimal number of clusters dynamically. The contribution of the paper is twofold. The first aim is to perform activity recognition employing features based on a small number of informative postures, extracted independently from each activity instance; secondly, it aims to assess the minimum number of frames needed for an adequate classification. The system is evaluated on two publicly available datasets, the Cornell Activity Dataset (CAD-60 and the Telecommunication Systems Team (TST Fall detection dataset. The number of clusters needed to model each instance ranges from two to four elements. The proposed approach reaches excellent performances using only about 4 s of input data (~100 frames and outperforms the state of the art when it uses approximately 500 frames on the CAD-60 dataset. The results are promising for the test in real context.

A Human Activity Recognition System Based on Dynamic Clustering of Skeleton Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Manzi, Alessandro; Dario, Paolo; Cavallo, Filippo

2017-05-11

Human activity recognition is an important area in computer vision, with its wide range of applications including ambient assisted living. In this paper, an activity recognition system based on skeleton data extracted from a depth camera is presented. The system makes use of machine learning techniques to classify the actions that are described with a set of a few basic postures. The training phase creates several models related to the number of clustered postures by means of a multiclass Support Vector Machine (SVM), trained with Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO). The classification phase adopts the X-means algorithm to find the optimal number of clusters dynamically. The contribution of the paper is twofold. The first aim is to perform activity recognition employing features based on a small number of informative postures, extracted independently from each activity instance; secondly, it aims to assess the minimum number of frames needed for an adequate classification. The system is evaluated on two publicly available datasets, the Cornell Activity Dataset (CAD-60) and the Telecommunication Systems Team (TST) Fall detection dataset. The number of clusters needed to model each instance ranges from two to four elements. The proposed approach reaches excellent performances using only about 4 s of input data (~100 frames) and outperforms the state of the art when it uses approximately 500 frames on the CAD-60 dataset. The results are promising for the test in real context.

Population dynamics of graphene driven by a few-cycle laser pulse

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Chunling; Yu, Rong; Hao, Xiangying; Zhang, Duo; Zu, Fengxia

2017-06-01

We study the time evolution of the populations in a two-dimensional (2D) graphene system by employing a few-cycle laser pulse with a linear polarization. Specifically, we present a comparative numerical analysis of the population dynamics of graphene in three different model configurations. Our results show that the Rabi-like oscillations and intraband population inversion can be observed in the population spectrum, which originated from the periodicity of a few-cycle laser pulse and the intraband Coulomb scattering. Also, coherent population oscillations are produced across the Dirac point when the Rabi frequency of the laser field which is used to couple the interband transition is much larger than that couples the intraband transition, and vice versa. These investigations may be helpful to enhance the performance of graphene-based ultrafast electronic and optoelectronic devices, including light-emitting devices, touch screens, photodetectors, and ultrafast lasers.

Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

OpenAIRE

Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

2005-01-01

Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey A Hostetler

Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Beyond Problem-Based Learning: Using Dynamic PBL in Chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Overton, Tina L.; Randles, Christopher A.

2015-01-01

This paper describes the development and implementation of a novel pedagogy, dynamic problem-based learning. The pedagogy utilises real-world problems that evolve throughout the problem-based learning activity and provide students with choice and different data sets. This new dynamic problem-based learning approach was utilised to teach…

Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

Science.gov (United States)

Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

2010-10-01

We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2012-01-01

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

Science.gov (United States)

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

Influence mechanism of low-dose ionizing radiation on Escherichia coli DH5α population based on plasma theory and system dynamics simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Yi; Hu, Dawei; Li, Liang; Jing, Zheng; Wei, Chuanfeng; Zhang, Lantao; Fu, Yuming

2016-01-01

It remains a mystery why the growth rate of bacteria is higher in low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) environment than that in normal environment. In this study, a hypothesis composed of environmental selection and competitive exclusion was firstly proposed from observed phenomena, experimental data and microbial ecology. Then a LDIR environment simulator (LDIRES) was built to cultivate a model organism of bacteria, Escherichia coli (E. coli) DH5α, the accurate response of bacterial population to ionizing radiation intensity variation was measured experimentally, and then the precise relative dosage of ionizing radiation E. coli DH5α population received was calculated by finite element analysis based on drift-diffusion equations of plasma. Finally, a highly valid mathematical model expressing the relationship between E. coli DH5α population and LDIR intensity was developed by system dynamics based on hypotheses, experimental data and microbial ecology. Both experiment and simulation results clearly showed that the E. coli DH5α individuals with greater specific growth rate and lower substrate consumption coefficient would adapt and survive in LDIR environment and those without such adaptability were finally eliminated under the combined effects of ionizing radiation selection and competitive exclusion. - Highlights: • Establishment of a low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) environment simulator. • Escherichiacoli DH5α was selected as a bacterial representative for investigation. • Precise LDIR intensity for E. coli DH5α was calculated by FEA and plasma theory. • Development of system dynamics model of LDIR influence on E. coli DH5α population. • Mechanism of bacterial boom in LDIR environment was elucidated by computer simulation.

Dynamic social networks based on movement

Science.gov (United States)

Scharf, Henry; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fosdick, Bailey K.; Johnson, Devin S.; London, Joshua M.; Durban, John W.

2016-01-01

Network modeling techniques provide a means for quantifying social structure in populations of individuals. Data used to define social connectivity are often expensive to collect and based on case-specific, ad hoc criteria. Moreover, in applications involving animal social networks, collection of these data is often opportunistic and can be invasive. Frequently, the social network of interest for a given population is closely related to the way individuals move. Thus, telemetry data, which are minimally invasive and relatively inexpensive to collect, present an alternative source of information. We develop a framework for using telemetry data to infer social relationships among animals. To achieve this, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with an underlying dynamic social network controlling movement of individuals via two mechanisms: an attractive effect and an aligning effect. We demonstrate the model and its ability to accurately identify complex social behavior in simulation, and apply our model to telemetry data arising from killer whales. Using auxiliary information about the study population, we investigate model validity and find the inferred dynamic social network is consistent with killer whale ecology and expert knowledge.

Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

Science.gov (United States)

Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

2016-06-01

Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

Dynamic response and transfer function of social systems: A neuro-inspired model of collective human activity patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Lymperopoulos, Ilias N

2017-10-01

The interaction of social networks with the external environment gives rise to non-stationary activity patterns reflecting the temporal structure and strength of exogenous influences that drive social dynamical processes far from an equilibrium state. Following a neuro-inspired approach, based on the dynamics of a passive neuronal membrane, and the firing rate dynamics of single neurons and neuronal populations, we build a state-of-the-art model of the collective social response to exogenous interventions. In this regard, we analyze online activity patterns with a view to determining the transfer function of social systems, that is, the dynamic relationship between external influences and the resulting activity. To this end, first we estimate the impulse response (Green's function) of collective activity, and then we show that the convolution of the impulse response with a time-varying external influence field accurately reproduces empirical activity patterns. To capture the dynamics of collective activity when the generating process is in a state of statistical equilibrium, we incorporate into the model a noisy input convolved with the impulse response function, thus precisely reproducing the fluctuations of stationary collective activity around a resting value. The outstanding goodness-of-fit of the model results to empirical observations, indicates that the model explains human activity patterns generated by time-dependent external influences in various socio-economic contexts. The proposed model can be used for inferring the temporal structure and strength of external influences, as well as the inertia of collective social activity. Furthermore, it can potentially predict social activity patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

KAUST Repository

Mabrok, Mohamed

2017-01-05

Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

2017-04-27

This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngwa, G.A.

2005-10-01

A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

Science.gov (United States)

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

Science.gov (United States)

Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

2013-03-01

Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

2018-04-01

How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles G Nathanson

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

A generic individual-based model to simulate morphogenesis, C-N acquisition and population dynamics in contrasting forage legumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Louarn, Gaëtan; Faverjon, Lucas

2018-04-18

Individual-based models (IBMs) are promising tools to disentangle plant interactions in multi-species grasslands and foster innovative species mixtures. This study describes an IBM dealing with the morphogenesis, growth and C-N acquisition of forage legumes that integrates plastic responses from functional-structural plant models. A generic model was developed to account for herbaceous legume species with contrasting above- and below-ground morphogenetic syndromes and to integrate the responses of plants to light, water and N. Through coupling with a radiative transfer model and a three-dimensional virtual soil, the model allows dynamic resolution of competition for multiple resources at individual plant level within a plant community. The behaviour of the model was assessed on a range of monospecific stands grown along gradients of light, water and N availability. The model proved able to capture the diversity of morphologies encountered among the forage legumes. The main density-dependent features known about even-age plant populations were correctly anticipated. The model predicted (1) the 'reciprocal yield' law relating average plant mass to density, (2) a self-thinning pattern close to that measured for herbaceous species and (3) consistent changes in the size structure of plant populations with time and pedo-climatic conditions. In addition, plastic changes in the partitioning of dry matter, the N acquisition mode and in the architecture of shoots and roots emerged from the integration of plant responses to their local environment. This resulted in taller plants and thinner roots when competition was dominated by light, and shorter plants with relatively more developed root systems when competition was dominated by soil resources. A population dynamic model considering growth and morphogenesis responses to multiple resources heterogeneously distributed in the environment was presented. It should allow scaling plant-plant interactions from individual to

Dynamic activity-travel assignment in multi-state supernetworks with road and location capacity constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, P.; Liao, F.; Huang, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2016-01-01

A unified framework coupling activity-based modelling and dynamic traffic assignment has recently been proposed. It formulates dynamic activity-travel assignment (DATA) in multi-state supernetworks as a dynamic user equilibrium. Choices of departure time, route, mode, activity sequence, and

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

[Dynamic changes of soil microbial populations and enzyme activities in super-high yielding summer maize farmland soil].

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Peng; Wang, Yong-jun; Wang, Kong-jun; Yang, Jin-sheng; Li, Deng-hai; Dong, Shu-ting; Liu, Jing-guo

2008-08-01

To reveal the characteristics of the dynamic changes of soil microbial populations and enzyme activities in super-high yielding ( > 15,000 kg x hm(-2)) summer maize farmland soil, a comparative study was conducted in the experimental fields in National Maize Engineering Research Center (Shandong). On the fields with an annual yield of >15,000 kg x hm(-2) in continuous three years, a plot with the yield of 20 322 kg x hm(-2) (HF) was chosen to make comparison with the conventional farmland (CF) whose maize yield was 8920. 1 kg x hm(-2). The numbers of bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes as well as the activities of urease and invertase in 0-20 cm soil layer were determined. The results showed that in the growth period of maize, the numbers of bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes in the two farmland soils increased first and declined then. At the later growth stages of maize, the numbers of soil microbes, especially those of bacteria and actinomycetes, were lower in HF than those in CF. At harvest stage, the ratio of the number of soil bacteria to fungi (B/ F) in HF was 2.03 times higher than that at sowing stage, and 3.02 times higher than that in CF. The B/F in CF had less difference at harvest and sowing stages. The soil urease activity in HF was significantly lower than that in CF at jointing stage, and the invertase activity in HF decreased rapidly after blooming stage, being significantly lower than that in CF.

Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

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Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

2018-12-01

An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

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Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

2017-07-01

To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

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Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

2010-05-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

Adherence to physical activity recommendations and its associated factors: an interregional population-based study

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Ala'a Alkerwi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background. Though the influence of physical activity in preventing cardiovascular diseases is well documented, only a few comparative studies have determined the degree of adherence to physical activity recommendations among populations and identified the demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and health-related factors associated with good compliance. Design and methods. Cross-sectional interregional NESCaV survey of 3133 subjects compared three populations, Luxembourg, Lorraine (France and Wallonia (Belgium, by using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Age and gender prevalence rates of physical activity were standardized to the European population. Results. The likelihood to meet the recommendations was higher in Luxembourg, after adjustment for age, gender, education, employment, weight status, morbidity score, health perception and level of importance attributed to the practice of physical activity (P<0.0001. The odds for meeting the recommendations were significantly higher among those with secondary than tertiary education. Compared to good self-health perception, subjects with poor or fair self-perceived health were less likely to meet the recommendations; this also applied to those attributing little or enough importance to physical activity compared with great importance. Conclusions. Region, education, self-perceived health and perception of importance of physical activity were emerged as independent determinants of meeting the recommendations. Awareness of the positive health effects of physical activity might thus be crucial for motivating the people to become more active. Further research is needed to explore potential region-specific factors which might explain the difference in population behaviours with respect to physical activity.

Near scale-free dynamics in neural population activity of waking/sleeping rats revealed by multiscale analysis.

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Leonid A Safonov

Full Text Available A neuron embedded in an intact brain, unlike an isolated neuron, participates in network activity at various spatial resolutions. Such multiple scale spatial dynamics is potentially reflected in multiple time scales of temporal dynamics. We identify such multiple dynamical time scales of the inter-spike interval (ISI fluctuations of neurons of waking/sleeping rats by means of multiscale analysis. The time scale of large non-Gaussianity in the ISI fluctuations, measured with the Castaing method, ranges up to several minutes, markedly escaping the low-pass filtering characteristics of neurons. A comparison between neural activity during waking and sleeping reveals that non-Gaussianity is stronger during waking than sleeping throughout the entire range of scales observed. We find a remarkable property of near scale independence of the magnitude correlations as the primary cause of persistent non-Gaussianity. Such scale-invariance of correlations is characteristic of multiplicative cascade processes and raises the possibility of the existence of a scale independent memory preserving mechanism.

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

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Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Safety from Crime and Physical Activity among Older Adults: A Population-Based Study in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corseuil, M.W.; Schneider, I.J.C.; Orsi, E.; Hallal, P.C.; Corseuil, H.X.

2012-01-01

Objective. To evaluate the association between safety from crime and physical activity among older adults. Methods. A population-based survey including 1,656 older adults (60+ years) took place in Florianopolis, Brazil, in 2009-2010. Commuting and leisure time physical activity were assessed through the long version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Perception of safety from crime was assessed using the Neighbourhood Environment Walk ability Scale. Results. Perceiving the neighbourhood as safe during the day was related to a 25% increased likelihood of being active in leisure time (95% CI 1.02-1.53); general perception of safety was also associated with a 25% increase in the likelihood of being active in leisure time (95% CI 1.01-1.54). Street lighting was related to higher levels of commuting physical activity (prevalence ratio: 1.89; 95% CI 1.28-2.80). Conclusions. Safety investments are essential for promoting physical activity among older adults in Brazil

Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

KAUST Repository

Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

2017-01-01

Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

2018-05-07

When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

2010-01-01

We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

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Martin R Miller

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

Studies on the population dynamics of a rumor-spreading model in online social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Suyalatu; Fan, Feng-Hua; Huang, Yong-Chang

2018-02-01

This paper sets up a rumor spreading model in online social networks based on the European fox rabies SIR model. The model considers the impact of changing number of online social network users, combines the transmission dynamics to set up a population dynamics of rumor spreading model in online social networks. Simulation is carried out on online social network, and results show that the new rumor spreading model is in accordance with the real propagation characteristics in online social networks.

The dynamics of fauna and population of birds in agricultural landscapes on the border of Kazan International Airport

Science.gov (United States)

Bespalov, A. F.; Belyaev, A. N.

2018-01-01

The dynamics of fauna and population of birds from agricultural lands near Kazan International Airport has been studied for one year. A total of 60 bird species have been registered, of which 26 species must be considered as highly dangerous to flying aircraft. With regard to seasonal activity, the nesting period (April - June) is the most hazardous, since it is characterized by maximum species richness and total population density of birds, as well as their high species diversity. Furthermore, a serious danger is posed by the period of postnesting nomadic movements and the onset of migrations (July - September) when the species diversity turns out to be the highest and the total population density begins to decrease. It has been recommended based on the obtained results that the current crops should be replaced by cultivars that will be less attractive to birds. In spring and autumn, certain bird hazing and frightening measures must be taken on a more regular basis.

Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

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K. Ulbrich

2001-09-01

Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

Measures of Coupling between Neural Populations Based on Granger Causality Principle.

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Kaminski, Maciej; Brzezicka, Aneta; Kaminski, Jan; Blinowska, Katarzyna J

2016-01-01

This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality) principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a "weak node." Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF) supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

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Joseph G Makin

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: a spatial analysis

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di Baldassarre, G.; Yan, K.; Ferdous, MD. R.; Brandimarte, L.

2014-09-01

In Bangladesh, socio-economic and hydrological processes are both extremely dynamic and inter-related. Human population patterns are often explained as a response, or adaptation strategy, to physical events, e.g. flooding, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. Meanwhile, these physical processes are exacerbated, or mitigated, by diverse human interventions, e.g. river diversion, levees and polders. In this context, this paper describes an attempt to explore the complex interplay between floods and societies in Bangladeshi floodplains. In particular, we performed a spatially-distributed analysis of the interactions between the dynamics of human settlements and flood inundation patterns. To this end, we used flooding simulation results from inundation modelling, LISFLOOD-FP, as well as global datasets of population distribution data, such as the Gridded Population of the World (20 years, from 1990 to 2010) and HYDE datasets (310 years, from 1700 to 2010). The outcomes of this work highlight the behaviour of Bangladeshi floodplains as complex human-water systems and indicate the need to go beyond the traditional narratives based on one-way cause-effects, e.g. climate change leading to migrations.

Developing a systems-based framework of the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe - a DEDIPAC study.

Science.gov (United States)

Holdsworth, Michelle; Nicolaou, Mary; Langøien, Lars Jørun; Osei-Kwasi, Hibbah Araba; Chastin, Sebastien F M; Stok, F Marijn; Capranica, Laura; Lien, Nanna; Terragni, Laura; Monsivais, Pablo; Mazzocchi, Mario; Maes, Lea; Roos, Gun; Mejean, Caroline; Powell, Katie; Stronks, Karien

2017-11-07

Some ethnic minority populations have a higher risk of non-communicable diseases than the majority European population. Diet and physical activity behaviours contribute to this risk, shaped by a system of inter-related factors. This study mapped a systems-based framework of the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe, to inform research prioritisation and intervention development. A concept mapping approach guided by systems thinking was used: i. Preparation (protocol and terminology); ii. Generating a list of factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe from evidence (systematic mapping reviews) and 'eminence' (89 participants from 24 academic disciplines via brainstorming, an international symposium and expert review) and; iii. Seeking consensus on structuring, rating and clustering factors, based on how they relate to each other; and iv. Interpreting/utilising the framework for research and interventions. Similar steps were undertaken for frameworks developed for the majority European population. Seven distinct clusters emerged for dietary behaviour (containing 85 factors) and 8 for physical activity behaviours (containing 183 factors). Four clusters were similar across behaviours: Social and cultural environment; Social and material resources; Psychosocial; and Migration context. Similar clusters of factors emerged in the frameworks for diet and physical activity behaviours of the majority European population, except for 'migration context'. The importance of factors across all clusters was acknowledged, but their relative importance differed for ethnic minority populations compared with the majority population. This systems-based framework integrates evidence from both expert opinion and published literature, to map the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority groups. Our findings illustrate

Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

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Nikola Simidjievski

Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

2013-01-01

Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

OpenAIRE

Volz, Erik

2005-01-01

Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

Development of Activity and Participation Norms among General Adult Populations in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Chia-Feng; Chiu, Tzu-Ying; Liou, Tsan-Hon; Chi, Wen-Chou; Liao, Hua-Fang; Liang, Chung-Chao; Escorpizo, Reuben

2017-06-06

Based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0), The Functioning Disability Evaluation Scale-Adult version (FUNDES-Adult) began development in 2011. The FUNDES-Adult was designed to assess the difficulty level of an individual's activities and participation in daily life. There is a lack of research regarding the profile of activity and participation for the general adult population. The purposes of this study were to establish activity and participation norms for the general adult population in Taiwan and to describe, discuss, and compare the activity and participation profile with other population. A population-based survey was administered in 2013 using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing system (CATI system). Using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling and systematic sampling with random digit dialing (RDD), 1500 adults from Taiwan's general population were selected to participate in the survey. The FUNDES-Adult with six domains and two dimensions (performance and capability) was used to obtain data on activities and participation levels. A higher domain score indicated higher participation restriction. Approximately 50% of the respondents were male, and the average age of the respondents was 45.23 years. There were no significant differences in the demographic features between the sample and the population. Among the six domains, the self-care domain score was the lowest (least restriction) and the participation domain score was the highest (most restriction). Approximately 90% of the sample scored were less than 15, and only 0.1% scored more than 80. This is the first cross-national population-based survey to assess norms of activity and participation relevant to the general population of Taiwan. As such, the results of this survey can be used as a reference for comparing the activity and participation (AP) functioning of

Spike-based population coding and working memory.

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Martin Boerlin

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Compelling behavioral evidence suggests that humans can make optimal decisions despite the uncertainty inherent in perceptual or motor tasks. A key question in neuroscience is how populations of spiking neurons can implement such probabilistic computations. In this article, we develop a comprehensive framework for optimal, spike-based sensory integration and working memory in a dynamic environment. We propose that probability distributions are inferred spike-per-spike in recurrently connected networks of integrate-and-fire neurons. As a result, these networks can combine sensory cues optimally, track the state of a time-varying stimulus and memorize accumulated evidence over periods much longer than the time constant of single neurons. Importantly, we propose that population responses and persistent working memory states represent entire probability distributions and not only single stimulus values. These memories are reflected by sustained, asynchronous patterns of activity which make relevant information available to downstream neurons within their short time window of integration. Model neurons act as predictive encoders, only firing spikes which account for new information that has not yet been signaled. Thus, spike times signal deterministically a prediction error, contrary to rate codes in which spike times are considered to be random samples of an underlying firing rate. As a consequence of this coding scheme, a multitude of spike patterns can reliably encode the same information. This results in weakly correlated, Poisson-like spike trains that are sensitive to initial conditions but robust to even high levels of external neural noise. This spike train variability reproduces the one observed in cortical sensory spike trains, but cannot be equated to noise. On the contrary, it is a consequence of optimal spike-based inference. In contrast, we show that rate-based models perform poorly when implemented with stochastically spiking neurons.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

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S. Freire

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

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Duarte M.V.E.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

Alleles versus genotypes: Genetic interactions and the dynamics of selection in sexual populations

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Neher, Richard

2010-03-01

Physical interactions between amino-acids are essential for protein structure and activity, while protein-protein interactions and regulatory interactions are central to cellular function. As a consequence of these interactions, the combined effect of two mutations can differ from the sum of the individual effects of the mutations. This phenomenon of genetic interaction is known as epistasis. However, the importance of epistasis and its effects on evolutionary dynamics are poorly understood, especially in sexual populations where recombination breaks up existing combinations of alleles to produce new ones. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. As the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value this ``genotype selection'' phase disappears in an abrupt transition giving way to ``allele selection'' - the phase where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where localized blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. Large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical, suggesting that natural selection might tune recombination rates to balance the beneficial aspect of exploration of genotype space with the breaking up of synergistic allele combinations.

Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

2012-12-01

Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

Uncoupling the effects of seed predation and seed dispersal by granivorous ants on plant population dynamics.

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Xavier Arnan

Full Text Available Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation and benefits (seed dispersal, the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength.

Time-driven activity-based costing: A dynamic value assessment model in pediatric appendicitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yangyang R; Abbas, Paulette I; Smith, Carolyn M; Carberry, Kathleen E; Ren, Hui; Patel, Binita; Nuchtern, Jed G; Lopez, Monica E

2017-06-01

Healthcare reform policies are emphasizing value-based healthcare delivery. We hypothesize that time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) can be used to appraise healthcare interventions in pediatric appendicitis. Triage-based standing delegation orders, surgical advanced practice providers, and a same-day discharge protocol were implemented to target deficiencies identified in our initial TDABC model. Post-intervention process maps for a hospital episode were created using electronic time stamp data for simple appendicitis cases during February to March 2016. Total personnel and consumable costs were determined using TDABC methodology. The post-intervention TDABC model featured 6 phases of care, 33 processes, and 19 personnel types. Our interventions reduced duration and costs in the emergency department (-41min, -$23) and pre-operative floor (-57min, -$18). While post-anesthesia care unit duration and costs increased (+224min, +$41), the same-day discharge protocol eliminated post-operative floor costs (-$306). Our model incorporating all three interventions reduced total direct costs by 11% ($2753.39 to $2447.68) and duration of hospitalization by 51% (1984min to 966min). Time-driven activity-based costing can dynamically model changes in our healthcare delivery as a result of process improvement interventions. It is an effective tool to continuously assess the impact of these interventions on the value of appendicitis care. II, Type of study: Economic Analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

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Leilei Qu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

OpenAIRE

Vaz Silva, Luis

2005-01-01

Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

Dynamic Shift Coordinated Control Based on Motor Active Speed Synchronization with the New Hybrid System

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Ting Yan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Considering the inherent disadvantages that severely affect driving comfortability during the shift process in HEVs, a dynamic shift coordinated control based on motor active speed synchronization is proposed to improve shift quality by reduction of shift vibration. The whole control scheme is comprised of three phases, preparatory phase, speed regulation phase, and synchronization phase, which are implemented consecutively in order. The key to inhibiting impact and jerk depends on the speed regulation phase, where motor active speed synchronization is utilized to reach the minimum speed difference between the two ends of synchronizer. A new hybrid system with superior performances is applied to present the validity of the adopted control algorithm during upshift or downshift, which can represent planetary gear system and conventional AMT shift procedure, respectively. Bench test, simulation, and road test results show that, compared with other methods, the proposed dynamic coordinated control can achieve shifting control in real time to effectively improve gear-shift comfort and shorten power interruption transients, with robustness in both conventional AMT and planetary gear train.

A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

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Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

CERN Document Server

Bazykin, Alexander D

1998-01-01

This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

POTENTIALS OF IMAGE BASED ACTIVE RANGING TO CAPTURE DYNAMIC SCENES

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B. Jutzi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Obtaining a 3D description of man-made and natural environments is a basic task in Computer Vision and Remote Sensing. To this end, laser scanning is currently one of the dominating techniques to gather reliable 3D information. The scanning principle inherently needs a certain time interval to acquire the 3D point cloud. On the other hand, new active sensors provide the possibility of capturing range information by images with a single measurement. With this new technique image-based active ranging is possible which allows capturing dynamic scenes, e.g. like walking pedestrians in a yard or moving vehicles. Unfortunately most of these range imaging sensors have strong technical limitations and are not yet sufficient for airborne data acquisition. It can be seen from the recent development of highly specialized (far-range imaging sensors – so called flash-light lasers – that most of the limitations could be alleviated soon, so that future systems will be equipped with improved image size and potentially expanded operating range. The presented work is a first step towards the development of methods capable for application of range images in outdoor environments. To this end, an experimental setup was set up for investigating these proposed possibilities. With the experimental setup a measurement campaign was carried out and first results will be presented within this paper.

Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

2010-11-01

• Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

OpenAIRE

Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

2017-01-01

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

2012-01-01

The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

Population dynamics of the murine lymphokine activated killer system: precursor frequency and kinetics of maturation and renewal.

Science.gov (United States)

Owen-Schaub, L B; Hemstreet, G P; Hemingway, L L; Abraham, S R; DeBault, L E

1987-11-01

The proliferation kinetics and population renewal of recombinant interleukin-2 (rIL-2)-induced murine lymphokine activated killers (LAK) arising from splenic precursors was studied. Extensive proliferation has been shown to accompany the de novo generation of LAK cytotoxicity. In this report, a thymidine 'hot pulse' suicide technique was employed to examine the sensitivity of LAK progenitors during various time periods following culture initiation. Hot pulse during the first 24 hr of culture resulted in a 30-35% reduction in lytic activity when assayed on day 5. Pulse periods between days 1 and 4 resulted in almost complete inhibition (90-95%) of lytic function when assayed on day 5. Proliferation of LAK progenitors was documented by limiting dilution analysis comparison of splenic precursors and functionally mature LAK cultures. These studies showed a 75- to 80-fold enrichment of LAK progenitors after 3 days culture in rIL-2. By flow cytometric cell cycle analysis, we demonstrated that the number of cells in the S/G2/M phase increased with the length of rIL-2 culture and represented approximately 40% of the cells by day 4. Finally, we used the rate of decay of lytic activity following irradiation as a factor to define the mean life span of a cytotoxic effector in the absence of cellular input. An exponential decrease to approximately 50% of controls was observed within 8-9 hr after irradiation. Taken together, these results suggest that the LAK system is highly dynamic and requires continuous cellular proliferation for its maintenance.

Physical activity and incidence of sarcopenia: the population-based AGES—Reykjavik Study

Science.gov (United States)

Mijnarends, Donja M.; Koster, Annemarie; Schols, Jos M. G. A.; Meijers, Judith M. M.; Halfens, Ruud J. G.; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Eiriksdottir, Gudny; Siggeirsdottir, Kristin; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur; Jónsson, Pálmi V.; Meirelles, Osorio; Harris, Tamara

2016-01-01

Background: the prevalence of sarcopenia increases with age. Physical activity might slow the rate of muscle loss and therewith the incidence of sarcopenia. Objective: to examine the association of physical activity with incident sarcopenia over a 5-year period. Design: data from the population-based Age, Gene/Environment, Susceptibility–Reykjavik Study were used. Setting: people residing in the Reykjavik area at the start of the study. Subjects: the study included people aged 66–93 years (n = 2309). Methods: the amount of moderate–vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was assessed by a self-reported questionnaire. Sarcopenia was identified using the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People algorithm, including muscle mass (computed tomography imaging), grip strength (computerised dynamometer) and gait speed (6 m). Results: mean age of the participants was 74.9 ± 4.7 years. The prevalence of sarcopenia was 7.3% at baseline and 16.8% at follow-up. The incidence proportion of sarcopenia over 5 years was 14.8% in the least-active individuals and 9.0% in the most-active individuals. Compared with the least-active participants, those reporting a moderate–high amount of MVPA had a significantly lower likelihood of incident sarcopenia (OR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.45–0.91). Participants with a high amount of MVPA had higher baseline levels of muscle mass, strength and walking speed, but baseline MVPA was not associated with the rate of muscle loss. Conclusion: a higher amount of MVPA seems to contribute to counteracting the development of sarcopenia. To delay the onset of sarcopenia and its potential adverse outcomes, attention should be paid to increasing physical activity levels in older adults. PMID:27189729

ANFIS Based Time Series Prediction Method of Bank Cash Flow Optimized by Adaptive Population Activity PSO Algorithm

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Jie-Sheng Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In order to improve the accuracy and real-time of all kinds of information in the cash business, and solve the problem which accuracy and stability is not high of the data linkage between cash inventory forecasting and cash management information in the commercial bank, a hybrid learning algorithm is proposed based on adaptive population activity particle swarm optimization (APAPSO algorithm combined with the least squares method (LMS to optimize the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS model parameters. Through the introduction of metric function of population diversity to ensure the diversity of population and adaptive changes in inertia weight and learning factors, the optimization ability of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm is improved, which avoids the premature convergence problem of the PSO algorithm. The simulation comparison experiments are carried out with BP-LMS algorithm and standard PSO-LMS by adopting real commercial banks’ cash flow data to verify the effectiveness of the proposed time series prediction of bank cash flow based on improved PSO-ANFIS optimization method. Simulation results show that the optimization speed is faster and the prediction accuracy is higher.

MMAS vs. Population-based EA on a family of dynamic fitness functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lissovoi, Andrei; Witt, Carsten

2014-01-01

We study the behavior of a population-based EA and the Max-Min Ant System (MMAS) on a family of deterministically-changing fitness functions, where, in order to find the global optimum, the algorithms have to find specific local optima within each of a series of phases. In particular, we prove...... a Maze function extended over a finite alphabet of μ symbols, whereas population size μ-1 is not sufficient. Furthermore, we show that MMAS does not require additional modifications to track the optimum of the finite-alphabet Maze functions, and, using a novel drift statement to simplify the analysis...

MMAS Versus Population-Based EA on a Family of Dynamic Fitness Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lissovoi, Andrei; Witt, Carsten

2015-01-01

We study the behavior of a population-based EA and the Max–Min Ant System (MMAS) on a family of deterministically-changing fitness functions, where, in order to find the global optimum, the algorithms have to find specific local optima within each of a series of phases. In particular, we prove...... function extended over a finite alphabet of μ symbols, whereas population size μ−1 is not sufficient. Furthermore, we show that MMAS does not require additional modifications to track the optimum of the finite-alphabet Maze functions, and, using a novel drift statement to simplify the analysis, reduce...

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population.

Science.gov (United States)

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek; Saczuk, Katarzyna; Kicinger, Anna

2007-03-01

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

CERN Document Server

Iannelli, Mimmo

2017-01-01

This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

Microbial Character Related Sulfur Cycle under Dynamic Environmental Factors Based on the Microbial Population Analysis in Sewerage System.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Qian; Shi, Hanchang; Liu, Yanchen

2017-01-01

The undesired sulfur cycle derived by microbial population can ultimately causes the serious problems of sewerage systems. However, the microbial community characters under dynamic environment factors in actual sewerage system is still not enough. This current study aimed to character the distributions and compositions of microbial communities that participate in the sulfur cycle under the dynamic environmental conditions in a local sewerage system. To accomplish this, microbial community compositions were assessed using 454 high-throughput sequencing (16S rDNA) combined with dsrB gene-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. The results indicated that a higher diversity of microbial species was present at locations in sewers with high concentrations of H 2 S. Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria were dominant in the sewerage system, while Actinobacteria alone were dominant in regions with high concentrations of H 2 S. Specifically, the unique operational taxonomic units could aid to characterize the distinct microbial communities within a sewerage manhole. The proportion of sulfate-reducing bacteria, each sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (SOB) were strongly correlated with the liquid parameters (DO, ORP, COD, Sulfide, NH 3 -N), while the Mycobacterium and Acidophilic SOB (M&A) was strongly correlated with gaseous factors within the sewer, such as H 2 S, CH 4 , and CO. Identifying the distributions and proportions of critical microbial communities within sewerage systems could provide insights into how the microbial sulfur cycle is affected by the dynamic environmental conditions that exist in sewers and might be useful for explaining the potential sewerage problems.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

Cultural-based particle swarm for dynamic optimisation problems

Science.gov (United States)

Daneshyari, Moayed; Yen, Gary G.

2012-07-01

Many practical optimisation problems are with the existence of uncertainties, among which a significant number belong to the dynamic optimisation problem (DOP) category in which the fitness function changes through time. In this study, we propose the cultural-based particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to solve DOP problems. A cultural framework is adopted incorporating the required information from the PSO into five sections of the belief space, namely situational, temporal, domain, normative and spatial knowledge. The stored information will be adopted to detect the changes in the environment and assists response to the change through a diversity-based repulsion among particles and migration among swarms in the population space, and also helps in selecting the leading particles in three different levels, personal, swarm and global levels. Comparison of the proposed heuristics over several difficult dynamic benchmark problems demonstrates the better or equal performance with respect to most of other selected state-of-the-art dynamic PSO heuristics.

Collective Activity of Many Bistable Assemblies Reproduces Characteristic Dynamics of Multistable Perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Robin; Pastukhov, Alexander; Mattia, Maurizio; Braun, Jochen

2016-06-29

The timing of perceptual decisions depends on both deterministic and stochastic factors, as the gradual accumulation of sensory evidence (deterministic) is contaminated by sensory and/or internal noise (stochastic). When human observers view multistable visual displays, successive episodes of stochastic accumulation culminate in repeated reversals of visual appearance. Treating reversal timing as a "first-passage time" problem, we ask how the observed timing densities constrain the underlying stochastic accumulation. Importantly, mean reversal times (i.e., deterministic factors) differ enormously between displays/observers/stimulation levels, whereas the variance and skewness of reversal times (i.e., stochastic factors) keep characteristic proportions of the mean. What sort of stochastic process could reproduce this highly consistent "scaling property?" Here we show that the collective activity of a finite population of bistable units (i.e., a generalized Ehrenfest process) quantitatively reproduces all aspects of the scaling property of multistable phenomena, in contrast to other processes under consideration (Poisson, Wiener, or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process). The postulated units express the spontaneous dynamics of attractor assemblies transitioning between distinct activity states. Plausible candidates are cortical columns, or clusters of columns, as they are preferentially connected and spontaneously explore a restricted repertoire of activity states. Our findings suggests that perceptual representations are granular, probabilistic, and operate far from equilibrium, thereby offering a suitable substrate for statistical inference. Spontaneous reversals of high-level perception, so-called multistable perception, conform to highly consistent and characteristic statistics, constraining plausible neural representations. We show that the observed perceptual dynamics would be reproduced quantitatively by a finite population of distinct neural assemblies, each with

Representing and estimating interactions between activities in a need-based model of activity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, L.; Arentze, T.; Timmermans, H.

2013-01-01

Although several activity-based models made the transition to practice in recent years, modeling dynamic activity generation and especially, the mechanisms underlying activity generation are not well incorporated in the current activity-based models. For instance, current models assume that

Representing and estimating interactions between activities in a need-based model of activity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, E.W.L.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2011-01-01

Although several activity-based models made the transition to practice in recent years, modelling dynamic activity generation and especially, the mechanisms underlying activity generation are not well incorporated in the current activity-based models. For example, current models assume that

Development of Activity and Participation Norms among General Adult Populations in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Feng Yen

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0, The Functioning Disability Evaluation Scale-Adult version (FUNDES-Adult began development in 2011. The FUNDES-Adult was designed to assess the difficulty level of an individual’s activities and participation in daily life. There is a lack of research regarding the profile of activity and participation for the general adult population. The purposes of this study were to establish activity and participation norms for the general adult population in Taiwan and to describe, discuss, and compare the activity and participation profile with other population. Method: A population-based survey was administered in 2013 using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing system (CATI system. Using probability proportional to size (PPS sampling and systematic sampling with random digit dialing (RDD, 1500 adults from Taiwan’s general population were selected to participate in the survey. The FUNDES-Adult with six domains and two dimensions (performance and capability was used to obtain data on activities and participation levels. A higher domain score indicated higher participation restriction. Results: Approximately 50% of the respondents were male, and the average age of the respondents was 45.23 years. There were no significant differences in the demographic features between the sample and the population. Among the six domains, the self-care domain score was the lowest (least restriction and the participation domain score was the highest (most restriction. Approximately 90% of the sample scored were less than 15, and only 0.1% scored more than 80. This is the first cross-national population-based survey to assess norms of activity and participation relevant to the general population of Taiwan. As such, the results of this survey can be used as a reference for comparing the activity and

Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, Jef

This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

2014-12-21

Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

2005-01-01

In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

2018-05-01

We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozyorsk and affecting factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

2001-01-01

In connection with serious social-economic and ecological problems in our country an analysis of demographic processes in cities of atomic industry causes a big of interest. The aim of this work was an evaluation of dynamic of age structure of population of city Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of nuclear plant 'Mayak' of 'first-born' of atomic industry in Russia. Data received in city's administration, included the information about number of population, its age composition taking into account of natural increase and of migration processes for a period from 1959 to 1997. (authors)

Feasibility of a dynamic web guidance approach for personalized physical activity prescription based on daily information from wearable technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Coolbaugh, Crystal L; Raymond, Stephen C; Hawkins, David A

2015-06-04

Computer tailored, Web-based interventions have emerged as an effective approach to promote physical activity. Existing programs, however, do not adjust activities according to the participant's compliance or physiologic adaptations, which may increase risk of injury and program attrition in sedentary adults. To address this limitation, objective activity monitor (AM) and heart rate data could be used to guide personalization of physical activity, but improved Web-based frameworks are needed to test such interventions. The objective of this study is to (1) develop a personalized physical activity prescription (PPAP) app that combines dynamic Web-based guidance with multi-sensor AM data to promote physical activity and (2) to assess the feasibility of using this system in the field. The PPAP app was constructed using an open-source software platform and a custom, multi-sensor AM capable of accurately measuring heart rate and physical activity. A novel algorithm was written to use a participant's compliance and physiologic response to aerobic training (ie, changes in daily resting heart rate) recorded by the AM to create daily, personalized physical activity prescriptions. In addition, the PPAP app was designed to (1) manage the transfer of files from the AM to data processing software and a relational database, (2) provide interactive visualization features such as calendars and training tables to encourage physical activity, and (3) enable remote administrative monitoring of data quality and participant compliance. A 12-week feasibility study was performed to assess the utility and limitations of the PPAP app used by sedentary adults in the field. Changes in physical activity level and resting heart rate were monitored throughout the intervention. The PPAP app successfully created daily, personalized physical activity prescriptions and an interactive Web environment to guide and promote physical activity by the participants. The varied compliance of the

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

Science.gov (United States)

Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2012-02-01

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Science.gov (United States)

John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

2006-01-01

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

Temporal dynamics of distinct CA1 cell populations during unconscious state induced by ketamine.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Kuang

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Ketamine is a widely used dissociative anesthetic which can induce some psychotic-like symptoms and memory deficits in some patients during the post-operative period. To understand its effects on neural population dynamics in the brain, we employed large-scale in vivo ensemble recording techniques to monitor the activity patterns of simultaneously recorded hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells and various interneurons during several conscious and unconscious states such as awake rest, running, slow wave sleep, and ketamine-induced anesthesia. Our analyses reveal that ketamine induces distinct oscillatory dynamics not only in pyramidal cells but also in at least seven different types of CA1 interneurons including putative basket cells, chandelier cells, bistratified cells, and O-LM cells. These emergent unique oscillatory dynamics may very well reflect the intrinsic temporal relationships within the CA1 circuit. It is conceivable that systematic characterization of network dynamics may eventually lead to better understanding of how ketamine induces unconsciousness and consequently alters the conscious mind.

Costs of detection bias in index-based population monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, C.T.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Managers of wildlife populations commonly rely on indirect, count-based measures of the population in making decisions regarding conservation, harvest, or control. The main appeal in the use of such counts is their low material expense compared to methods that directly measure the population. However, their correct use rests on the rarely-tested but often-assumed premise that they proportionately reflect population size, i.e., that they constitute a population index. This study investigates forest management for the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia, U.S.A. Optimal decision policies for a joint species objective were derived for two alternative models of Wood Thrush population dynamics. Policies were simulated under scenarios of unbiasedness, consistent negative bias, and habitat-dependent negative bias in observed Wood Thrush densities. Differences in simulation outcomes between biased and unbiased detection scenarios indicated the expected loss in resource objectives (here, forest habitat and birds) through decision-making based on biased population counts. Given the models and objective function used in our analysis, expected losses were as great as 11%, a degree of loss perhaps not trivial for applications such as endangered species management. Our analysis demonstrates that costs of uncertainty about the relationship between the population and its observation can be measured in units of the resource, costs which may offset apparent savings achieved by collecting uncorrected population counts.

Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

CERN Document Server

Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

2014-01-01

This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schans, J.

1993-01-01

Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Soderberg, Ulf

2012-01-01

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

Influence mechanism of low-dose ionizing radiation on Escherichia coli DH5α population based on plasma theory and system dynamics simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yi; Hu, Dawei; Li, Liang; Jing, Zheng; Wei, Chuanfeng; Zhang, Lantao; Fu, Yuming; Liu, Hong

2016-01-01

It remains a mystery why the growth rate of bacteria is higher in low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) environment than that in normal environment. In this study, a hypothesis composed of environmental selection and competitive exclusion was firstly proposed from observed phenomena, experimental data and microbial ecology. Then a LDIR environment simulator (LDIRES) was built to cultivate a model organism of bacteria, Escherichia coli (E. coli) DH5α, the accurate response of bacterial population to ionizing radiation intensity variation was measured experimentally, and then the precise relative dosage of ionizing radiation E. coli DH5α population received was calculated by finite element analysis based on drift-diffusion equations of plasma. Finally, a highly valid mathematical model expressing the relationship between E. coli DH5α population and LDIR intensity was developed by system dynamics based on hypotheses, experimental data and microbial ecology. Both experiment and simulation results clearly showed that the E. coli DH5α individuals with greater specific growth rate and lower substrate consumption coefficient would adapt and survive in LDIR environment and those without such adaptability were finally eliminated under the combined effects of ionizing radiation selection and competitive exclusion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

Measures of coupling between neural populations based on Granger causality principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maciej Kaminski

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper shortly reviews the measures used to estimate neural synchronization in experimental settings. Our focus is on multivariate measures of dependence based on the Granger causality (G-causality principle, their applications and performance in respect of robustness to noise, volume conduction, common driving, and presence of a weak node. Application of G-causality measures to EEG, intracranial signals and fMRI time series is addressed. G-causality based measures defined in the frequency domain allow the synchronization between neural populations and the directed propagation of their electrical activity to be determined. The time-varying G-causality based measure Short-time Directed Transfer Function (SDTF supplies information on the dynamics of synchronization and the organization of neural networks. Inspection of effective connectivity patterns indicates a modular structure of neural networks, with a stronger coupling within modules than between them. The hypothetical plausible mechanism of information processing, suggested by the identified synchronization patterns, is communication between tightly coupled modules intermitted by sparser interactions providing synchronization of distant structures.

Extracting aerobic system dynamics during unsupervised activities of daily living using wearable sensor machine learning models.

Science.gov (United States)

Beltrame, Thomas; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander; Hughson, Richard L

2018-02-01

Physical activity levels are related through algorithms to the energetic demand, with no information regarding the integrity of the multiple physiological systems involved in the energetic supply. Longitudinal analysis of the oxygen uptake (V̇o 2 ) by wearable sensors in realistic settings might permit development of a practical tool for the study of the longitudinal aerobic system dynamics (i.e., V̇o 2 kinetics). This study evaluated aerobic system dynamics based on predicted V̇o 2 data obtained from wearable sensors during unsupervised activities of daily living (μADL). Thirteen healthy men performed a laboratory-controlled moderate exercise protocol and were monitored for ≈6 h/day for 4 days (μADL data). Variables derived from hip accelerometer (ACC HIP ), heart rate monitor, and respiratory bands during μADL were extracted and processed by a validated random forest regression model to predict V̇o 2 . The aerobic system analysis was based on the frequency-domain analysis of ACC HIP and predicted V̇o 2 data obtained during μADL. Optimal samples for frequency domain analysis (constrained to ≤0.01 Hz) were selected when ACC HIP was higher than 0.05 g at a given frequency (i.e., participants were active). The temporal characteristics of predicted V̇o 2 data during μADL correlated with the temporal characteristics of measured V̇o 2 data during laboratory-controlled protocol ([Formula: see text] = 0.82, P system dynamics can be investigated during unsupervised activities of daily living by wearable sensors. Although speculative, these algorithms have the potential to be incorporated into wearable systems for early detection of changes in health status in realistic environments by detecting changes in aerobic response dynamics. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The early detection of subclinical aerobic system impairments might be indicative of impaired physiological reserves that impact the capacity for physical activity. This study is the first to use wearable

Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

KAUST Repository

Bressloff, Paul C.

2010-01-01

We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes P M Heinonen

Full Text Available Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Sex Differences in the Relationship Between Depressive Symptoms and Actigraphic Assessments of Sleep and Rest-Activity Rhythms in a Population-Based Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Kaitlin Hanley; Rumble, Meredith E; Benca, Ruth M

2017-05-01

Depression is often associated with disruptions in sleep and circadian rhythms. We aimed to confirm these relationships via actigraphic assessment in a large, population-based sample and test whether sex moderates these relationships. A total of 418 participants (age = 35-85 years, mean [standard deviation] = 57.04 [11.47]) completed questionnaires and 1 week of actigraphy, used to calculate sleep and rest-activity statistics including mesor (mean activity level), amplitude (height of rhythm), and acrophase (time of day that rhythm peaks). Depressive symptoms, assessed via Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, were associated with disrupted sleep and rest-activity rhythms. Furthermore, men demonstrated longer sleep onset latency (SOL, B = -13.28, p continuity and rest-activity rhythms in this population-based sample; however, these relationships differed by sex. Women with greater depressive symptoms exhibited difficulty with sleep continuity, whereas men with greater depressive symptoms demonstrated disruption throughout the 24-hour rhythm.

A population-based survey on physical inactivity and leisure time physical activity among adults in Chiang Mai, Thailand, 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Thanamee, Sanhapan; Pinyopornpanish, Kanokporn; Wattanapisit, Apichai; Suerungruang, Suparerk; Thaikla, Kanittha; Jiraporncharoen, Wichuda; Angkurawaranon, Chaisiri

2017-01-01

Reducing physical inactivity among the population is a challenge for many nations. Targeting leisure time physical activity (LTPA) may be useful in increasing overall physical activity as it is assumed it is associated with a higher degree of free choice and personal preference than physical activity at work and during travel. The study explored the prevalence of physical inactivity and focused on the overall level of energy expenditure and energy level spent during leisure time among those who were physically inactive and assessed the stages of change for LTPA among those who were physically inactive. A population-based survey was conducted in 2014 in Chiang Mai, Thailand using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique. The Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was used to collect the data on physical activity. Sufficient levels of physical activity (PA) were defined as ≥150 min/week of moderate-intensity PA or ≥75 min/week of vigorous-intensity PA or ≥600 metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-minutes/week. Weighted analyses were used to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity, the total energy expenditure and expenditure during LTPA as well as stages of change among the physically inactive population. A total of 1744 people (808 men and 936 women), aged 15 to 64 years, participated in the study. We estimated that a quarter (26%) of the population were physically inactive. Physical inactivity was more commonly found among women than men in most age groups. LTPA contributed a small proportion of overall PA. On average, physically inactive men spent 132.8 MET-minutes/week and inactive women spent 208.2 MET-minutes/week in overall PA which is well below the 600 MET-minutes/week recommend by the World Health Organization. Around 75% of physically inactive people had no intention of engaging in regular LTPA. About a quarter of the investigative population were physically inactive. Most physically inactive members of the population

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

Science.gov (United States)

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

2011-01-01

-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

A Multi-Agent Modelling Approach to Simulate Dynamic Activity-Travel Patterns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Han, Q.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Janssens, D.; Wets, G.; Bazzan, A.L.C.; Klügl, F.

2009-01-01

Contributing to the recent interest in the dynamics of activity-travel patterns, this chapter discusses a framework of an agent-based modeling approach focusing on the dynamic formation of (location) choice sets. Individual travelers are represented as agents, each with their cognition of the

Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Frenoy, Antoine; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

2018-05-01

The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

Science.gov (United States)

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Effects of Copper-based Compounds, Antibiotics and a Plant Activator on Population Sizes and Spread of Clavibacter michiganensis subsp. michiganensis in Greenhouse Tomato Seedlings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svetlana Milijašević

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Three copper-based compounds (copper hydroxide, copper oxychloride, copper sulphate, two antibiotics (streptomycin and kasugamycin and a plant activator (ASM significantly reduced population sizes and spread of C. michiganensis subsp. michiganensis among tomatoseedlings in the greenhouse. Streptomycin had the best effect in reducing pathogen population size in all sampling regions. Moreover, this antibiotic completely stopped the spread of C. michiganensis subsp. michiganensis in the region most distant from the inoculumfocus. Copper hydroxide mixed with streptomycin significantly limited the pathogen population, compared with copper hydroxide alone, the other copper-based compounds, ASM and kasugamycin. However, combining streptomycin with copper hydroxide did notcontribute to its greater efficacy against the pathogen population. Copper-based compounds, in general, were less effective in limiting pathogen population sizes than the other treatments in all three sampling regions, primarily copper oxychloride and the combinationof copper hydroxide and mancozeb. Among copper compounds, copper hydroxide was the most prominent in reducing the bacterial population, especially in the region closest to the inoculum focus, while its combination with mancozeb did not improve the effects. Kasugamycin significantly limited pathogen population size, compared to copper bactericides, but it was less effective than the other antibiotic compound, i.e. streptomycin. The plant activator ASM significantly reduced population density, and it was more effectivewhen used three days prior to inoculation than six days before inoculation.

A fast dynamic mode in rare earth based glasses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, L. Z.; Xue, R. J.; Zhu, Z. G.; Wang, W. H.; Bai, H. Y., E-mail: hybai@iphy.ac.cn [Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Ngai, K. L. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, I-56127 Pisa (Italy)

2016-05-28

Metallic glasses (MGs) usually exhibit only slow β-relaxation peak, and the signature of the fast dynamic is challenging to be observed experimentally in MGs. We report a general and unusual fast dynamic mode in a series of rare earth based MGs manifested as a distinct fast β′-relaxation peak in addition to slow β-relaxation and α-relaxation peaks. We show that the activation energy of the fast β′-relaxation is about 12RT{sub g} and is equivalent to the activation of localized flow event. The coupling of these dynamic processes as well as their relationship with glass transition and structural heterogeneity is discussed.

Activation of Hsp90 Enzymatic Activity and Conformational Dynamics through Rationally Designed Allosteric Ligands.

Science.gov (United States)

Sattin, Sara; Tao, Jiahui; Vettoretti, Gerolamo; Moroni, Elisabetta; Pennati, Marzia; Lopergolo, Alessia; Morelli, Laura; Bugatti, Antonella; Zuehlke, Abbey; Moses, Mike; Prince, Thomas; Kijima, Toshiki; Beebe, Kristin; Rusnati, Marco; Neckers, Len; Zaffaroni, Nadia; Agard, David A; Bernardi, Anna; Colombo, Giorgio

2015-09-21

Hsp90 is a molecular chaperone of pivotal importance for multiple cell pathways. ATP-regulated internal dynamics are critical for its function and current pharmacological approaches block the chaperone with ATP-competitive inhibitors. Herein, a general approach to perturb Hsp90 through design of new allosteric ligands aimed at modulating its functional dynamics is proposed. Based on the characterization of a first set of 2-phenylbenzofurans showing stimulatory effects on Hsp90 ATPase and conformational dynamics, new ligands were developed that activate Hsp90 by targeting an allosteric site, located 65 Å from the active site. Specifically, analysis of protein responses to first-generation activators was exploited to guide the design of novel derivatives with improved ability to stimulate ATP hydrolysis. The molecules' effects on Hsp90 enzymatic, conformational, co-chaperone and client-binding properties were characterized through biochemical, biophysical and cellular approaches. These designed probes act as allosteric activators of the chaperone and affect the viability of cancer cell lines for which proper functioning of Hsp90 is necessary. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Supporting Activity-Based Computingusing Dynamically (De)Composable Mobile Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schultz, Ulrik Pagh; Schougaard, Kari Rye

2004-01-01

the document-centered paradigm for pervasive computing: it crosscuts work with different kinds of entities and sets the focus on the user and the user's tasks. In domain such as healthcare, activities are fundamentally mobile: doctors and nurses move throughout the hospital as their work progresses. Hence......, the computer must support mobility of activities. For this reason, we consider it important to investigate whether a computing platform that embraces mobility at a fundamental level supports implementing software for this new paradigm. This paper describes our initial design ideas for supporting activity......-centered computing in the Pervasive Object Model Project (POMP), a project which concerns the development of a platform for pervasive computing applications. We first describe POMP, the present the notion of activity-based computing, and last investigate how activity-based computing can be implemented in POMP....

Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

Science.gov (United States)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2018-03-01

The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

2009-01-01

We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

An agent-based micro-simulation framework for modeling of dynamic activity-travel rescheduling decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arentze, T.A.; Pelizaro, C.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2010-01-01

The simultaneous implementation of daily activity-travel schedules of individuals in a given spatial environment generally gives rise to time- and location-varying congestion levels, which affect the conditions for subsequent activity and travel choices. Although such dynamics are commonly

Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

Science.gov (United States)

2005-06-01

1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Porčić

Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

Dynamic Mechanism of Population Transfer and its Effect on Food Industries Credit Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Yanli

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Population transfer is a complicated social phenomenon which concerns the development of national welfare and people's livelihood and the credit system of the food production and processing industry. This study investigated the dynamic mechanism of population transfer and its effect on the food processing industry, applying theories like urbanization theory, regional imbalanced development theory, regional balanced development theory, comprehensive and coordinated development of urban and rural areas theory. Based on the practical situation of Henan province, the study offered some countermeasure suggestions for the existing problems in the credit systems of the food industry in Henan and discussed how to establish appropriate credit systems, thus to help food security and sustainable development of Henan.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Lima

Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

2004-01-01

Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach

Multi-scale individual-based model of microbial and bioconversion dynamics in aerobic granular sludge.

Science.gov (United States)

Xavier, Joao B; De Kreuk, Merle K; Picioreanu, Cristian; Van Loosdrecht, Mark C M

2007-09-15

Aerobic granular sludge is a novel compact biological wastewater treatment technology for integrated removal of COD (chemical oxygen demand), nitrogen, and phosphate charges. We present here a multiscale model of aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactors (GSBR) describing the complex dynamics of populations and nutrient removal. The macro scale describes bulk concentrations and effluent composition in six solutes (oxygen, acetate, ammonium, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate). A finer scale, the scale of one granule (1.1 mm of diameter), describes the two-dimensional spatial arrangement of four bacterial groups--heterotrophs, ammonium oxidizers, nitrite oxidizers, and phosphate accumulating organisms (PAO)--using individual based modeling (IbM) with species-specific kinetic models. The model for PAO includes three internal storage compounds: polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), poly phosphate, and glycogen. Simulations of long-term reactor operation show how the microbial population and activity depends on the operating conditions. Short-term dynamics of solute bulk concentrations are also generated with results comparable to experimental data from lab scale reactors. Our results suggest that N-removal in GSBR occurs mostly via alternating nitrification/denitrification rather than simultaneous nitrification/denitrification, supporting an alternative strategy to improve N-removal in this promising wastewater treatment process.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi

2013-01-01

We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)

Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

August Turina

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

Reconstructing the population activity of olfactory output neurons that innervate identifiable processing units

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shigehiro Namiki

2008-06-01

Full Text Available We investigated the functional organization of the moth antennal lobe (AL, the primary olfactory network, using in vivo electrophysiological recordings and anatomical identification. The moth AL contains about 60 processing units called glomeruli that are identifiable from one animal to another. We were able to monitor the output information of the AL by recording the activity of a population of output neurons, each of which innervated a single glomerulus. Using compiled intracellular recordings and staining data from different animals, we mapped the odor-evoked dynamics on a digital atlas of the AL and geometrically reconstructed the population activity. We examined the quantitative relationship between the similarity of olfactory responses and the anatomical distance between glomeruli. Globally, the olfactory response profile was independent of the anatomical distance, although some local features were present.

Population activity structure of excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Bittner, Sean R; Williamson, Ryan C; Snyder, Adam C; Litwin-Kumar, Ashok; Doiron, Brent; Chase, Steven M; Smith, Matthew A; Yu, Byron M

2017-01-01

Many studies use population analysis approaches, such as dimensionality reduction, to characterize the activity of large groups of neurons. To date, these methods have treated each neuron equally, without taking into account whether neurons are excitatory or inhibitory. We studied population activity structure as a function of neuron type by applying factor analysis to spontaneous activity from spiking networks with balanced excitation and inhibition. Throughout the study, we characterized population activity structure by measuring its dimensionality and the percentage of overall activity variance that is shared among neurons. First, by sampling only excitatory or only inhibitory neurons, we found that the activity structures of these two populations in balanced networks are measurably different. We also found that the population activity structure is dependent on the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory neurons sampled. Finally we classified neurons from extracellular recordings in the primary visual cortex of anesthetized macaques as putative excitatory or inhibitory using waveform classification, and found similarities with the neuron type-specific population activity structure of a balanced network with excitatory clustering. These results imply that knowledge of neuron type is important, and allows for stronger statistical tests, when interpreting population activity structure.

Population activity structure of excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sean R Bittner

Full Text Available Many studies use population analysis approaches, such as dimensionality reduction, to characterize the activity of large groups of neurons. To date, these methods have treated each neuron equally, without taking into account whether neurons are excitatory or inhibitory. We studied population activity structure as a function of neuron type by applying factor analysis to spontaneous activity from spiking networks with balanced excitation and inhibition. Throughout the study, we characterized population activity structure by measuring its dimensionality and the percentage of overall activity variance that is shared among neurons. First, by sampling only excitatory or only inhibitory neurons, we found that the activity structures of these two populations in balanced networks are measurably different. We also found that the population activity structure is dependent on the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory neurons sampled. Finally we classified neurons from extracellular recordings in the primary visual cortex of anesthetized macaques as putative excitatory or inhibitory using waveform classification, and found similarities with the neuron type-specific population activity structure of a balanced network with excitatory clustering. These results imply that knowledge of neuron type is important, and allows for stronger statistical tests, when interpreting population activity structure.

Population activity structure of excitatory and inhibitory neurons

Science.gov (United States)

Doiron, Brent

2017-01-01

Many studies use population analysis approaches, such as dimensionality reduction, to characterize the activity of large groups of neurons. To date, these methods have treated each neuron equally, without taking into account whether neurons are excitatory or inhibitory. We studied population activity structure as a function of neuron type by applying factor analysis to spontaneous activity from spiking networks with balanced excitation and inhibition. Throughout the study, we characterized population activity structure by measuring its dimensionality and the percentage of overall activity variance that is shared among neurons. First, by sampling only excitatory or only inhibitory neurons, we found that the activity structures of these two populations in balanced networks are measurably different. We also found that the population activity structure is dependent on the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory neurons sampled. Finally we classified neurons from extracellular recordings in the primary visual cortex of anesthetized macaques as putative excitatory or inhibitory using waveform classification, and found similarities with the neuron type-specific population activity structure of a balanced network with excitatory clustering. These results imply that knowledge of neuron type is important, and allows for stronger statistical tests, when interpreting population activity structure. PMID:28817581

Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

2011-06-15

Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

2000-06-01

We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root

Dynamic characteristics of Semi-active Hydraulic Engine Mount Based on Fluid-Structure Interaction FEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian Jiande

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A kind of semi-active hydraulic engine mount is studied in this paper. After careful analysis of its structure and working principle, the FEA simulation of it was divided into two cases. One is the solenoid valve is open, so the air chamber connects to the atmosphere, and Fluid-Structure Interaction was used. Another is the solenoid valve is closed, and the air chamber has pressure, so Fluid-Structure-Gas Interaction was used. The test of this semi-active hydraulic engine mount was carried out to compare with the simulation results, and verify the accuracy of the model. Then the dynamic characteristics-dynamic stiffness and damping angle were analysed by simulation and test. This paper provides theoretical support for the development and optimization of the semi-active hydraulic engine mount.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

Developing a systems-based framework of the factors influencing dietary and physical activity behaviours in ethnic minority populations living in Europe - a DEDIPAC study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holdsworth, Michelle; Nicolaou, Mary; Langøien, Lars Jørun; Osei-Kwasi, Hibbah Araba; Chastin, Sebastien F. M.; Stok, F. Marijn; Capranica, Laura; Lien, Nanna; Terragni, Laura; Monsivais, Pablo; Mazzocchi, Mario; Maes, Lea; Roos, Gun; Mejean, Caroline; Powell, Katie; Stronks, Karien

2017-01-01

Some ethnic minority populations have a higher risk of non-communicable diseases than the majority European population. Diet and physical activity behaviours contribute to this risk, shaped by a system of inter-related factors. This study mapped a systems-based framework of the factors influencing

Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

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N. G. Gudym

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

Science.gov (United States)

Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

2002-03-01

We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

Relationship between alcohol intake, body fat, and physical activity – a population-based study

Science.gov (United States)

Liangpunsakul, Suthat; Crabb, David W.; Qi, Rong

2010-01-01

Objectives Aside from fat, ethanol is the macronutrient with the highest energy density. Whether the energy derived from ethanol affects the body composition and fat mass is debatable. We investigated the relationship between alcohol intake, body composition, and physical activity in the US population using the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Methods Ten thousand five hundred and fifty subjects met eligible criteria and constituted our study cohort. Estimated percent body fat and resting metabolic rate were calculated based on the sum of the skinfolds. Multivariate regression analyses were performed accounting for the study sampling weight. Results In both genders, moderate and hazardous alcohol drinkers were younger (pphysical activity compared to those with no alcohol use and moderate drinkers in both genders. Female had significantly higher percent body fat than males. In the multivariate linear regression analyses, the levels of alcohol consumption were found to be an independent predictor associated with lower percent body fat only in male subjects. Conclusions Our results showed that alcoholics are habitually less active and that alcohol drinking is an independent predictor of lower percent body fat especially in male alcoholics. PMID:20696406

Distinct migration and contact dynamics of resting and IL-2-activated human natural killer cells

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Per Erik Olofsson

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Natural killer (NK cells serve as one of the first lines of defense against viral infections and transformed cells. NK cell cytotoxicity is not dependent on antigen presentation by target cells, but is dependent on integration of activating and inhibitory signals triggered by receptor–ligand interactions formed at a tight intercellular contact between the NK and target cell, i.e. the immune synapse. We have studied the single-cell migration behavior and target-cell contact dynamics of resting and IL-2-activated human peripheral blood NK cells. Small populations of NK cells and target cells were confined in microwells and imaged by fluorescence microscopy for >8 h. Only the IL-2-activated population of NK cells showed efficient cytotoxicity against the human embryonic kidney (HEK 293T target cells. We found that although the average migration speeds were comparable, activated NK cells showed significantly more dynamic migration behavior, with more frequent transitions between periods of low and high motility. Resting NK cells formed fewer and weaker contacts with target cells, which manifested as shorter conjugation times and in many cases a complete lack of post-conjugation attachment to target cells. Activated NK cells were approximately twice as big as the resting cells, displayed a more migratory phenotype, and were more likely to employ motile scanning of the target cell surface during conjugation. Taken together, our experiments quantify, at the single-cell level, how activation by IL-2 leads to altered NK cell cytotoxicity, migration behavior and contact dynamics.

Measuring limitations in activities of daily living: a population-based validation of a short questionnaire.

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Elfering, Achim; Cronenberg, Sonja; Grebner, Simone; Tamcan, Oezguer; Müller, Urs

2017-12-01

A newly developed questionnaire assessing limitations in activity of daily living (LADL-Q) that should improve assessment of LADL is tested in a large population-based validation study. This survey was paper-based. Overall, 16,634 individuals who were representative of the working population in the German-speaking part of Switzerland participated in the study. Item analysis was used the final version of the LADL-Q to four items per subscale that correspond to potential problems in three body regions (back and neck, upper extremities, lower extremities). Analysis included tests for reliability, internal consistency, dimensionality and convergent validity. Test-retest reliability coefficients after 2 weeks ranged from 0.82 to 0.99 (Mdn = 0.87), with no item having a coefficient below 0.60. The median item-total coefficients ranged between moderate and good. Correlation coefficients between LADL-Q subscales and three validated clinical instruments (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index, shoulder pain disability index, Oswestry) ranged from 0.63 to 0.81. In structural equation modeling the three subscales were significantly related with two important outcomes in occupational rehabilitation: self-reported general health and daily task performance. The new LADL-Q is a brief, reliable and valid tool for assessment of LADL in studies on musculoskeletal health.

Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

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Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

2002-03-01

We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

OpenAIRE

Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

1995-01-01

A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

Neurofeedback Tunes Scale-Free Dynamics in Spontaneous Brain Activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ros, T; Frewen, P; Théberge, J; Michela, A; Kluetsch, R; Mueller, A; Candrian, G; Jetly, R; Vuilleumier, P; Lanius, R A

2017-10-01

Brain oscillations exhibit long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs), which reflect the regularity of their fluctuations: low values representing more random (decorrelated) while high values more persistent (correlated) dynamics. LRTCs constitute supporting evidence that the brain operates near criticality, a state where neuronal activities are balanced between order and randomness. Here, healthy adults used closed-loop brain training (neurofeedback, NFB) to reduce the amplitude of alpha oscillations, producing a significant increase in spontaneous LRTCs post-training. This effect was reproduced in patients with post-traumatic stress disorder, where abnormally random dynamics were reversed by NFB, correlating with significant improvements in hyperarousal. Notably, regions manifesting abnormally low LRTCs (i.e., excessive randomness) normalized toward healthy population levels, consistent with theoretical predictions about self-organized criticality. Hence, when exposed to appropriate training, spontaneous cortical activity reveals a residual capacity for "self-tuning" its own temporal complexity, despite manifesting the abnormal dynamics seen in individuals with psychiatric disorder. Lastly, we observed an inverse-U relationship between strength of LRTC and oscillation amplitude, suggesting a breakdown of long-range dependence at high/low synchronization extremes, in line with recent computational models. Together, our findings offer a broader mechanistic framework for motivating research and clinical applications of NFB, encompassing disorders with perturbed LRTCs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Unraveling dynamics of human physical activity patterns in chronic pain conditions

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Paraschiv-Ionescu, Anisoara; Buchser, Eric; Aminian, Kamiar

2013-06-01

Chronic pain is a complex disabling experience that negatively affects the cognitive, affective and physical functions as well as behavior. Although the interaction between chronic pain and physical functioning is a well-accepted paradigm in clinical research, the understanding of how pain affects individuals' daily life behavior remains a challenging task. Here we develop a methodological framework allowing to objectively document disruptive pain related interferences on real-life physical activity. The results reveal that meaningful information is contained in the temporal dynamics of activity patterns and an analytical model based on the theory of bivariate point processes can be used to describe physical activity behavior. The model parameters capture the dynamic interdependence between periods and events and determine a `signature' of activity pattern. The study is likely to contribute to the clinical understanding of complex pain/disease-related behaviors and establish a unified mathematical framework to quantify the complex dynamics of various human activities.

Dynamics of Cercospora zeina populations in maize-based agro ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

La variation dans le temps au sein d'une population, est fonction de facteurs relatifs à l'écologie, la biologie et l'histoire de vie des pathogènes. Elle varie d'un être vivant à un autre et d'un écosystème à un autre. L'objectif de cette étude était d'évaluer la variabilité génétique au sein des populations de Cercospora zeina ...

Physical, Psychological and Emotional Benefits of Green Physical Activity: An Ecological Dynamics Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Hsiao-Pu; Stone, Joseph Antony; Churchill, Sarah May; Wheat, Jonathan Stephen; Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

2016-07-01

Increasing evidence supports the multiple benefits to physical, psychological and emotional wellbeing of green physical activity, a topic of increasing interest in the past decade. Research has revealed a synergistic benefit of green physical activity, which includes all aspects of exercise and physical activity in the presence of nature. Our theoretical analysis suggests there are three distinct levels of engagement in green physical activity, with each level reported to have a positive effect on human behaviours. However, the extent to which each level of green physical activity benefits health and wellbeing is assumed to differ, requiring confirmation in future research. This elucidation of understanding is needed because previous literature has tended to focus on recording empirical evidence rather than developing a sound theoretical framework to understand green physical activity effects. Here we propose an ecological dynamics rationale to explain how and why green physical activity might influence health and wellbeing of different population groups. This framework suggests a number of unexplored, interacting constraints related to types of environment and population groups, which shape reported levels of benefit of green physical activity. Further analysis is needed to clarify the explicit relationship between green physical activity and health and wellbeing, including levels of engagement, types of environmental constraints, levels of physical activity, adventure effects, skill effects and sampling of different populations.

Active Polar Two-Fluid Macroscopic Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Pleiner, Harald; Svensek, Daniel; Brand, Helmut R.

2014-03-01

We study the dynamics of systems with a polar dynamic preferred direction. Examples include the pattern-forming growth of bacteria (in a solvent, shoals of fish (moving in water currents), flocks of birds and migrating insects (flying in windy air). Because the preferred direction only exists dynamically, but not statically, the macroscopic variable of choice is the macroscopic velocity associated with the motion of the active units. We derive the macroscopic equations for such a system and discuss novel static, reversible and irreversible cross-couplings connected to this second velocity. We find a normal mode structure quite different compared to the static descriptions, as well as linear couplings between (active) flow and e.g. densities and concentrations due to the genuine two-fluid transport derivatives. On the other hand, we get, quite similar to the static case, a direct linear relation between the stress tensor and the structure tensor. This prominent ``active'' term is responsible for many active effects, meaning that our approach can describe those effects as well. In addition, we also deal with explicitly chiral systems, which are important for many active systems. In particular, we find an active flow-induced heat current specific for the dynamic chiral polar order.

Population dynamics and breeding patterns of multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis (Smith 1834), in irrigated rice fields in eastern Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mulungu, Loth S; Ngowo, Victoria; Mdangi, Mashaka; Katakweba, Abdul S; Tesha, Protas; Mrosso, Furaha P; Mchomvu, Mary; Sheyo, Paul M; Kilonzo, Bukhet S

2013-03-01

Multimammate mice are the most important vertebrate pests in Sub-Saharan Africa and are also reservoirs of many zoonotic diseases, including sylvan plague. This study investigated the population dynamics and breeding patterns of this mouse in irrigated rice cropping systems in eastern Tanzania. The multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis, population varied with habitat and months. Fallow land had a more abundant population than rice fields. The highest population peak was observed during the dry season from July to October. Mastomys natalensis is sexually active throughout the year in the study area, although it reaches the highest level in June and December when rice is at the maturity stage. This suggests that breeding is highly influenced by the presence of a rice crop in both seasons. More juvenile individuals were recorded in August and September, indicating that they were produced in the previous breeding months. The sex ratio of M. natalensis was not skewed to either males or females, indicating that it was at parity. Rodent population dynamics during the study periods in all habitats indicated that high birth rates accounted for the rapid population growth and turnover. Regular control and sustainable operations are thus essential if rodent pest populations are to be kept within tolerable limits. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

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Marilyn J. Roossinck

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huipeng Pan

Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.

Peru: population and policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobrevilla, L A

1987-06-01

Peru's 1985 Population Policy Law states as its second objective that individuals and couples should be well informed and provided with the education and health services that will assist them in making responsible decisions about the number and spacing of their children. Thus, the law establishes a firm basis for IEC programs. With regard to population education, the purpose of the law is to create awareness through all educational channels of the reciprocal influence of population dynamics and socioeconomic development and to promote positive attitudes toward small family size. The law promotes the use of the communications media to educate and inform about population issues. The National Population Council, which coordinates and supervises the IEC activities of public sector agencies, has issued publications and audiovisual materials, conducted meetings with government officials and opinion leaders, and promoted awareness of population policy as a key part of development planning. In 1984, the Council organized the First National Seminar on Communication and Population to review activities, set the basis for intersectoral coordination, unify criteria, and review population policy concepts and language. The Ministry of Health carries out IEC activities as part of its family planning services program. In addition, the Ministry of Education has organized a national population education program that aims to revise school curricula to include a greater emphasis on population dynamics and family life education. The activities of a number of private institutions complement the IEC work public sector organizations.

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Biocompatible micro-sized cell culture chamber for the detection of nanoparticle-induced IL8 promoter activity on a small cell population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oostingh Gertie

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract In most conventional in vitro toxicological assays, the response of a complete cell population is averaged, and therefore, single-cell responses are not detectable. Such averaging might result in misinterpretations when only individual cells within a population respond to a certain stimulus. Therefore, there is a need for non-invasive in vitro systems to verify the toxicity of nanoscale materials. In the present study, a micro-sized cell culture chamber with a silicon nitride membrane (0.16 mm2 was produced for cell cultivation and the detection of specific cell responses. The biocompatibility of the microcavity chip (MCC was verified by studying adipogenic and neuronal differentiation. Thereafter, the suitability of the MCC to study the effects of nanoparticles on a small cell population was determined by using a green fluorescence protein-based reporter cell line. Interleukin-8 promoter (pIL8 induction, a marker of an inflammatory response, was used to monitor immune activation. The validation of the MCC-based method was performed using well-characterized gold and silver nanoparticles. The sensitivity of the new method was verified comparing the quantified pIL8 activation via MCC-based and standard techniques. The results proved the biocompatibility and the sensitivity of the microculture chamber, as well as a high optical quality due to the properties of Si3N4. The MCC-based method is suited for threshold- and time-dependent analysis of nanoparticle-induced IL8 promoter activity. This novel system can give dynamic information at the level of adherent single cells of a small cell population and presents a new non-invasive in vitro test method to assess the toxicity of nanomaterials and other compounds. PACS: 85.35.Be, 81.16.Nd, 87.18.Mp

Biocompatible micro-sized cell culture chamber for the detection of nanoparticle-induced IL8 promoter activity on a small cell population

Science.gov (United States)

Kohl, Yvonne; Oostingh, Gertie J.; Sossalla, Adam; Duschl, Albert; von Briesen, Hagen; Thielecke, Hagen

2011-08-01

In most conventional in vitro toxicological assays, the response of a complete cell population is averaged, and therefore, single-cell responses are not detectable. Such averaging might result in misinterpretations when only individual cells within a population respond to a certain stimulus. Therefore, there is a need for non-invasive in vitro systems to verify the toxicity of nanoscale materials. In the present study, a micro-sized cell culture chamber with a silicon nitride membrane (0.16 mm2) was produced for cell cultivation and the detection of specific cell responses. The biocompatibility of the microcavity chip (MCC) was verified by studying adipogenic and neuronal differentiation. Thereafter, the suitability of the MCC to study the effects of nanoparticles on a small cell population was determined by using a green fluorescence protein-based reporter cell line. Interleukin-8 promoter (pIL8) induction, a marker of an inflammatory response, was used to monitor immune activation. The validation of the MCC-based method was performed using well-characterized gold and silver nanoparticles. The sensitivity of the new method was verified comparing the quantified pIL8 activation via MCC-based and standard techniques. The results proved the biocompatibility and the sensitivity of the microculture chamber, as well as a high optical quality due to the properties of Si3N4. The MCC-based method is suited for threshold- and time-dependent analysis of nanoparticle-induced IL8 promoter activity. This novel system can give dynamic information at the level of adherent single cells of a small cell population and presents a new non-invasive in vitro test method to assess the toxicity of nanomaterials and other compounds. PACS: 85.35.Be, 81.16.Nd, 87.18.Mp

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a

Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. I. Training and validating population dynamics equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D

2014-08-06

Failure to understand evolutionary dynamics has been hypothesized as limiting our ability to control biological systems. An increasing awareness of similarities between macroscopic ecosystems and cellular tissues has inspired optimism that game theory will provide insights into the progression and control of cancer. To realize this potential, the ability to compare game theoretic models and experimental measurements of population dynamics should be broadly disseminated. In this tutorial, we present an analysis method that can be used to train parameters in game theoretic dynamics equations, used to validate the resulting equations, and used to make predictions to challenge these equations and to design treatment strategies. The data analysis techniques in this tutorial are adapted from the analysis of reaction kinetics using the method of initial rates taught in undergraduate general chemistry courses. Reliance on computer programming is avoided to encourage the adoption of these methods as routine bench activities.

Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

1995-06-01

A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

ALTERNATIVE EQUATIONS FOR DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR OF IONIC CHANNEL ACTIVATION AND INACTIVATION GATES

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Mahmut ÖZER

2003-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, alternative equations for dynamics of ionic channel activation and inactivation gates are proposed based on the path probability method. Dynamic behavior of a voltage-gated ionic channel is modeled by the conventional Hodgkin-Huxley (H-H mathematical formalism. In that model, conductance of the channel is defined in terms of activation and inactivation gates. Dynamics of the activation and inactivation gates is modeled by first-order differential equations dependent on the gate variable and the membrane potential. In the new approach proposed in this study, dynamic behavior of activation and inactivation gates is modeled by a firstorder differential equation dependent on internal energy and membrane potential by using the path probability method which is widely used in statistical physics. The new model doesn't require the time constant and steadystate values which are used explicitly in the H-H model. The numerical results show validity of the proposed method.

Economy, Movement Dynamics, and Muscle Activity of Human Walking at Different Speeds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raffalt, Peter Christian; Guul, Martin Kjær; Nielsen, A. N.

2017-01-01

The complex behaviour of human walking with respect to movement variability, economy and muscle activity is speed dependent. It is well known that a U-shaped relationship between walking speed and economy exists. However, it is an open question if the movement dynamics of joint angles and centre...... of mass and muscle activation strategy also exhibit a U-shaped relationship with walking speed. We investigated the dynamics of joint angle trajectories and the centre of mass accelerations at five different speeds ranging from 20 to 180% of the predicted preferred speed (based on Froude speed) in twelve...... healthy males. The muscle activation strategy and walking economy were also assessed. The movement dynamics was investigated using a combination of the largest Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. We observed an intermediate stage of the movement dynamics of the knee joint angle and the anterior...

Sexual activity in Brazilian women aged 50 years or older within the framework of a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Valadares, Ana Lúcia Ribeiro; Santos Machado, Vanessa S; da Costa-Paiva, Lúcia S; de Souza, Maria Helena; Osis, Maria José; Pinto-Neto, Aarão M

2014-03-01

This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of sexual activity, factors associated with being sexually active, and sexual self-perception in women 50 years or older living in a Brazilian city. This population-based study applied a questionnaire to a random sample of 622 Brazilian women 50 years or older, representative of a population of 131,800 women, to obtain data on sexual activity and women's perception of their sexual life as part of a broader study that dealt with women's health. Associations between sexual activity, women's perception of their sexual life, and demographic, behavioral, and medical characteristics were determined. Overall, 36.7% of the participants reported being sexually active. Of these, 53.5% classified their sexual life as very good or good. Multiple regression analysis showed that the main factors associated with the absence of sexual activity were not having a partner (prevalence ratio [PR], 0.16; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23; P aging (PR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.96; P sexually active was associated with the practice of physical activity (PR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.02-1.41; P = 0.032). A woman's classification of her sexual life as very poor, poor, or fair was associated with current or past use of natural remedies to treat menopausal symptoms (PR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.06-1.81; P = 0.020). The main factors associated with the absence of sexual activity are not having a sexual partner, aging, and smoking, whereas weekly physical activity is associated with being sexually active. A poorer classification of a woman's sexual life is associated with her having used natural remedies to treat menopausal symptoms.

Active synchronization between two different chaotic dynamical system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maheri, M.; Arifin, N. Md; Ismail, F.

2015-01-01

In this paper we investigate on the synchronization problem between two different chaotic dynamical system based on the Lyapunov stability theorem by using nonlinear control functions. Active control schemes are used for synchronization Liu system as drive and Rossler system as response. Numerical simulation by using Maple software are used to show effectiveness of the proposed schemes

Active synchronization between two different chaotic dynamical system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maheri, M. [Institute for Mathematical Research, 43400 UPM, Serdang, Selengor (Malaysia); Arifin, N. Md; Ismail, F. [Department of Mathematics, 43400 UPM, Serdang, Selengor (Malaysia)

2015-05-15

In this paper we investigate on the synchronization problem between two different chaotic dynamical system based on the Lyapunov stability theorem by using nonlinear control functions. Active control schemes are used for synchronization Liu system as drive and Rossler system as response. Numerical simulation by using Maple software are used to show effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and the association with socio-demographic characteristics and physical activity in urban population of Iranian adults: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hajian-Tilaki, K; Heidari, B; Firouzjahi, A; Bagherzadeh, M; Hajian-Tilaki, A; Halalkhor, S

2014-01-01

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is the main concern of health problem in transition population. The objective was to determine the prevalence of MetS and its association with socio-demographic and physical activity in Iranian adults. A population-based cross-sectional study of 1000 representative samples aged 20-70 years was conducted in urban area in northern Iran. The socio-demographic data were collected by interview and the physical activity was assessed by standard International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Weight, height, waist circumference and the systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured by standard methods. Fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol level and low density lipoprotein cholesterol level were measured using enzymatic method. The ATP III criteria were used for diagnosis of MetS. The prevalence rate of MetS was 42.3% (36.5% men and 47.1% women, p=0.001). The higher education at university level was appeared inversely associated with MetS (age adjusted OR=0.34, p=0.001) compared with illiterate. The prevalence rates of MetS were 49.0%, 42.5% and 22.6% in low, moderate and vigorous physical activity level respectively (p=0.001). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the vigorous physical activity was inversely associated with MetS compared with low level (adjusted OR=0.46, p=0.001). These results highlight an immediate action of preventive measures programs for modification of cardio metabolic risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

2014-01-01

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss

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NITA ETIKAWATI

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.

Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

2009-10-01

The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meijster, Tim; Tielemans, Erik [TNO Quality of Life, Business unit Quality and Safety, Zeist (Netherlands); Warren, Nick [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire (United Kingdom); Heederik, Dick, E-mail: Tim.meijster@tno.n [Utrecht University, Institute of Risk Assessment Sciences, Division of Environmental Epidemiology, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2009-02-01

Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

Behavioral Economics, Wearable Devices, and Cooperative Games: Results From a Population-Based Intervention to Increase Physical Activity.

Science.gov (United States)

van Mierlo, Trevor; Hyatt, Douglas; Ching, Andrew T; Fournier, Rachel; Dembo, Ron S

2016-01-28

Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4

Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

2002-01-01

We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

1978-01-01

A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

Microscopic Theory of Coupled Slow Activated Dynamics in Glass-Forming Binary Mixtures.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Rui; Schweizer, Kenneth S

2018-04-05

The Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation theory for one-component viscous liquids and suspensions is generalized to treat coupled slow activated relaxation and diffusion in glass-forming binary sphere mixtures of any composition, size ratio, and interparticle interactions. A trajectory-level dynamical coupling parameter concept is introduced to construct two coupled dynamic free energy functions for the smaller penetrant and larger matrix particle. A two-step dynamical picture is proposed where the first-step process involves matrix-facilitated penetrant hopping quantified in a self-consistent manner based on a temporal coincidence condition. After penetrants dynamically equilibrate, the effectively one-component matrix particle dynamics is controlled by a new dynamic free energy (second-step process). Depending on the time scales associated with the first- and second-step processes, as well as the extent of matrix-correlated facilitation, distinct physical scenarios are predicted. The theory is implemented for purely hard-core interactions, and addresses the glass transition based on variable kinetic criteria, penetrant-matrix coupled activated relaxation, self-diffusion of both species, dynamic fragility, and shear elasticity. Testable predictions are made. Motivated by the analytic ultralocal limit idea derived for pure hard sphere fluids, we identify structure-thermodynamics-dynamics relationships. As a case study for molecule-polymer thermal mixtures, the chemically matched fully miscible polystyrene-toluene system is quantitatively studied based on a predictive mapping scheme. The resulting no-adjustable-parameter results for toluene diffusivity and the mixture glass transition temperature are in good agreement with experiment. The theory provides a foundation to treat diverse dynamical problems in glass-forming mixtures, including suspensions of colloids and nanoparticles, polymer-molecule liquids, and polymer nanocomposites.

A need-based approach to dynamic activity generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijland, E.W.L.

2011-01-01

Traffic congestion is still an everyday reoccurring problem. Models that predict traffic flows have been developed in the past and, in particular, considerable progress has been made in development and application of activity-based travel demand models over the last decade. However, several issues

Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ONOS

2010-01-25

Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Linking Activity and Function to Ecosystem Dynamics in a Coastal Bacterioplankton Community

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott Michael Gifford

2014-04-01

Full Text Available For bacterial communities containing hundreds to thousands of distinct populations, connecting functional processes and environmental dynamics at high taxonomic resolution has remained challenging. Here we use the expression of ribosomal proteins (%RP as a proxy for in situ activity of 200 taxa within 20 metatranscriptomic samples in a coastal ocean time series encompassing both seasonal variability and diel dynamics. %RP patterns grouped the taxa into seven activity clusters with distinct profiles in functional gene expression and correlations with environmental gradients. Clusters 1-3 had their highest potential activity in the winter and fall, and included some of the most active taxa, while Clusters 4-7 had their highest potential activity in the spring and summer. Cluster 1 taxa were characterized by gene expression for motility and complex carbohydrate degradation (dominated by Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes, and Cluster 2 taxa by transcription of genes for amino acid and aromatic compound metabolism and aerobic anoxygenic phototrophy (Roseobacter. Other activity clusters were enriched in transcripts for proteorhodopsin and methylotrophy (Cluster 4; SAR11 and methylotrophs, photosynthesis and attachment (Clusters 5 and 7; Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes, Verucomicrobia, and Planctomycetes, and sulfur oxidation (Cluster 7; Gammaproteobacteria. The seasonal patterns in activity were overlain, and sometimes obscured, by large differences in %RP over shorter day-night timescales. Seventy-eight taxa, many of them heterotrophs, had a higher %RP activity index during the day than night, indicating strong diel activity at this coastal site. Emerging from these taxonomically- and time-resolved estimates of in situ microbial activity are predictions of specific ecological groupings of microbial taxa in a dynamic coastal environment.

Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

2017-11-01

We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

Population-based dietary approaches for the prevention of noncommunicable diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Somasundaram, Noel P; Kalupahana, Nishan Sudheera

2016-04-01

As the incidence of noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes continues to rise at an alarming rate in South-East Asia, it is imperative that urgent and population-wide strategies are adopted. The most important contributors to the rise in noncommunicable disease are a rise in mean caloric intake and a decrease in physical activity. The evidence for population-based dietary approaches to counter these factors is reviewed. Several structural and cohesive interdepartmental coordination efforts are required for effective implementation of prevention strategies. Since low- and middle-income countries may lack the frameworks for effective and integrated multi-stakeholder intervention, implementation of population-based dietary and physical-activity approaches may be delayed and may be too late for effective prevention in current at-risk cohorts. Evidence-based strategies to decrease energy intake and increase physical activity are now well established and their urgent adoption by Member States of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region is essential. In the context of Sri Lanka, for example, it is recommended that the most effective and easy-to-implement interventions would be media campaigns, restrictions on advertisement of unhealthy foods, taxation of unhealthy foods, subsidies for production of healthy foods, and laws on nutrition labelling that introduce colour coding of packaged foods.

An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

2014-03-01

A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

Universality in the merging dynamics of parametric active contours: a study in MRI based lung segmentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chattopadhyay, Amit K; Ray, Nilanjan; Acton, Scott T

2005-01-01

Measurement of lung ventilation is one of the most reliable techniques in diagnosing pulmonary diseases. The time-consuming and bias-prone traditional methods using hyperpolarized H 3 He and 1 H magnetic resonance imageries have recently been improved by an automated technique based on 'multiple active contour evolution'. This method involves a simultaneous evolution of multiple initial conditions, called 'snakes', eventually leading to their 'merging' and is entirely independent of the shapes and sizes of snakes or other parametric details. The objective of this paper is to show, through a theoretical analysis, that the functional dynamics of merging as depicted in the active contour method has a direct analogue in statistical physics and this explains its 'universality'. We show that the multiple active contour method has an universal scaling behaviour akin to that of classical nucleation in two spatial dimensions. We prove our point by comparing the numerically evaluated exponents with an equivalent thermodynamic model

Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

2002-01-01

The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

Word class and context affect alpha-band oscillatory dynamics in an older population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika eMellem

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Differences in the oscillatory EEG dynamics of reading open class and closed class words have previously been found (Bastiaansen et al., 2005 and are thought to reflect differences in lexical-semantic content between these word classes. In particular, the theta band (4–7 Hz seems to play a prominent role in lexical-semantic retrieval. We tested whether this theta effect is robust in an older population of subjects. Additionally, we examined how the context of a word can modulate the oscillatory dynamics underlying retrieval for the two different classes of words. Older participants (mean age 55 read words presented in either syntactically-correct sentences or in a scrambled order (scrambled sentence while their EEG was recorded. We performed time-frequency analysis to examine how power varied based on the context or class of the word. We observed larger power decreases in the alpha (8–12Hz band between 200–700 ms for the open class compared to closed class words, but this was true only for the scrambled sentence context. We did not observe differences in theta power between these conditions. Context exerted an effect on the alpha and low beta (13–18 Hz bands between 0–700 ms. These results suggest that the previously observed word class effects on theta power changes in a younger participant sample do not seem to be a robust effect in this older population. Though this is an indirect comparison between studies, it may suggest the existence of aging effects on word retrieval dynamics for different populations. Additionally, the interaction between word class and context suggests that word retrieval mechanisms interact with sentence-level comprehension mechanisms in the alpha band.

Use of a Web-based physical activity record system to analyze behavior in a large population: cross-sectional study.

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Namba, Hideyuki; Yamada, Yosuke; Ishida, Mika; Takase, Hideto; Kimura, Misaka

2015-03-19

The use of Web-based physical activity systems has been proposed as an easy method for collecting physical activity data. We have developed a system that has exhibited high accuracy as assessed by the doubly labeled water method. The purpose of this study was to collect behavioral data from a large population using our Web-based physical activity record system and assess the physical activity of the population based on these data. In this paper, we address the difference in physical activity for each urban scale. In total, 2046 participants (aged 30-59 years; 1105 men and 941 women) participated in the study. They were asked to complete data entry before bedtime using their personal computer on 1 weekday and 1 weekend day. Their residential information was categorized as urban, urban-rural, or rural. Participant responses expressed the intensity of each activity at 15-minute increments and were recorded on a Web server. Residential areas were compared and multiple regression analysis was performed. Most participants had a metabolic equivalent (MET) ranging from 1.4 to 1.8, and the mean MET was 1.60 (SD 0.28). The median value of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA, ≥3 MET) was 7.92 MET-hours/day. A 1-way ANCOVA showed that total physical activity differed depending on the type of residential area (F2,2027=5.19, P=.006). The urban areas (n=950) had the lowest MET-hours/day (mean 37.8, SD, 6.0), followed by urban-rural areas (n=432; mean 38.6, SD 6.5; P=.04), and rural areas (n=664; mean 38.8, SD 7.4; P=.002). Two-way ANCOVA showed a significant interaction between sex and area of residence on the urban scale (F2,2036=4.53, P=.01). Men in urban areas had the lowest MET-hours/day (MVPA, ≥3 MET) at mean 7.9 (SD 8.7); men in rural areas had a MET-hours/day (MVPA, ≥3 MET) of mean 10.8 (SD 12.1, P=.002). No significant difference was noted in women among the 3 residential areas. Multiple regression analysis showed that physical activity consisting of

Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state.

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Grace E Fox

Full Text Available Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC, an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA, and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

Developing a capillary electrophoresis based method for dynamically monitoring enzyme cleavage activity using quantum dots-peptide assembly.

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Wang, Jianhao; Fan, Jie; Liu, Li; Ding, Shumin; Liu, Xiaoqian; Wang, Jianpeng; Gao, Liqian; Chattopadhaya, Souvik; Miao, Peng; Xia, Jiang; Qiu, Lin; Jiang, Pengju

2017-10-01

Herein, a novel assay has been developed for monitoring PreScission protease (His-PSP) mediated enzyme cleavage of ATTO 590 labeled peptide substrate (ATTO-LEV). This novel method is based on combining the use of capillary electrophoresis and fluorescence detection (CE-FL) to dynamically monitor the enzyme cleavage activity. A multivalent peptide substrate was first constructed by immobilizing His-tagged ATTO 590 labeled peptide substrate (ATTO-LEVH6) onto the surface of CdSe/ZnS quantum dots (QDs). Once successfully immobilized, the novel multivalent peptide substrate resulted in the Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) from QDs to ATTO 590. The ATTO-LEVH6-QD assembly was then incubated with His-PSP to study the proteolytic cleavage of surface bound ATTO-LEVH6 by CE-FL. Our data suggests that PreScission-mediated proteolytic cleavage is enzyme concentration- and incubation time-dependent. By combining capillary electrophoresis, QDs and FRET, our study herein not only provides a new method for the detection and dynamically monitoring of PSP enzyme cleavage activity, but also can be extended to the detection of many other enzymes and proteases. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Association between arsenic exposure and plasma cholinesterase activity: a population based study in Bangladesh

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Karim Md Rezaul

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Arsenic is a potent pollutant that has caused an environmental catastrophe in certain parts of the world including Bangladesh where millions of people are presently at risk due to drinking water contaminated by arsenic. Chronic arsenic exposure has been scientifically shown as a cause for liver damage, cancers, neurological disorders and several other ailments. The relationship between plasma cholinesterase (PChE activity and arsenic exposure has not yet been clearly documented. However, decreased PChE activity has been found in patients suffering liver dysfunction, heart attack, cancer metastasis and neurotoxicity. Therefore, in this study, we evaluated the PChE activity in individuals exposed to arsenic via drinking water in Bangladesh. Methods A total of 141 Bangladeshi residents living in arsenic endemic areas with the mean arsenic exposure of 14.10 ± 3.27 years were selected as study subjects and split into tertile groups based on three water arsenic concentrations: low ( 265 μg/L. Study subjects were further sub-divided into two groups (≤50 μg/L and > 50 μg/L based on the recommended upper limit of water arsenic concentration (50 μg/L in Bangladesh. Blood samples were collected from the study subjects by venipuncture and arsenic concentrations in drinking water, hair and nail samples were measured by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS. PChE activity was assayed by spectrophotometer. Results Arsenic concentrations in hair and nails were positively correlated with the arsenic levels in drinking water. Significant decreases in PChE activity were observed with increasing concentrations of arsenic in water, hair and nails. The average levels of PChE activity in low, medium and high arsenic exposure groups were also significantly different between each group. Lower levels of PChE activity were also observed in the > 50 μg/L group compared to the ≤50 μg/L group. Moreover, PChE activity was

Simulating the Reproductive Behavior of a Region’s Population with an Agent-Based Model

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Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The research analyses the impact of the inequality of demographic transition on socio-demographic characteristics of the regional population and on the dynamics of these characteristics. The study was conducted with the help of computer-based experiments (simulations, which was run on the original agent-based model. The model is an artificial society, and personal characteristics of its members are set so that they could represent age-demographic structure of a simulate region. The agents are divided into two subgroups, which differ in their reproductive strategy. The first group has traditional strategy with high birth rate. The second group has considerably lower birth rate, observed in the modern developed societies. The model uses stochastic approaches to imitate the principle processes of population growth: mortality and morbidity. Mortality is set according to age-sex specific mortality coefficients, which do not differ across the population as a whole. New agents (child births appear as a choice of agents – women of reproductive age, and the choice depends on the subgroup. The overall age and social structure of the region is aggregated across individual agents. A number of experiments has been carried out with the model utilization. This allowed forecasting the size and structure of the population of a given region. The results of the experiments have revealed that despite its simplicity, the developed agent-based model well predicts the initial conditions in the region (e.g. age-demographic and social structure. The model shows good fit in terms of estimating the dynamics of major characteristics of the population.

Stable and dynamic microtubules coordinately shape the myosin activation zone during cytokinetic furrow formation

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Foe, Victoria E.; von Dassow, George

2008-01-01

The cytokinetic furrow arises from spatial and temporal regulation of cortical contractility. To test the role microtubules play in furrow specification, we studied myosin II activation in echinoderm zygotes by assessing serine19-phosphorylated regulatory light chain (pRLC) localization after precisely timed drug treatments. Cortical pRLC was globally depressed before cytokinesis, then elevated only at the equator. We implicated cell cycle biochemistry (not microtubules) in pRLC depression, and differential microtubule stability in localizing the subsequent myosin activation. With no microtubules, pRLC accumulation occurred globally instead of equatorially, and loss of just dynamic microtubules increased equatorial pRLC recruitment. Nocodazole treatment revealed a population of stable astral microtubules that formed during anaphase; among these, those aimed toward the equator grew longer, and their tips coincided with cortical pRLC accumulation. Shrinking the mitotic apparatus with colchicine revealed pRLC suppression near dynamic microtubule arrays. We conclude that opposite effects of stable versus dynamic microtubules focuses myosin activation to the cell equator during cytokinesis. PMID:18955555

Towards a theory of cortical columns: From spiking neurons to interacting neural populations of finite size.

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Schwalger, Tilo; Deger, Moritz; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-04-01

Neural population equations such as neural mass or field models are widely used to study brain activity on a large scale. However, the relation of these models to the properties of single neurons is unclear. Here we derive an equation for several interacting populations at the mesoscopic scale starting from a microscopic model of randomly connected generalized integrate-and-fire neuron models. Each population consists of 50-2000 neurons of the same type but different populations account for different neuron types. The stochastic population equations that we find reveal how spike-history effects in single-neuron dynamics such as refractoriness and adaptation interact with finite-size fluctuations on the population level. Efficient integration of the stochastic mesoscopic equations reproduces the statistical behavior of the population activities obtained from microscopic simulations of a full spiking neural network model. The theory describes nonlinear emergent dynamics such as finite-size-induced stochastic transitions in multistable networks and synchronization in balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. The mesoscopic equations are employed to rapidly integrate a model of a cortical microcircuit consisting of eight neuron types, which allows us to predict spontaneous population activities as well as evoked responses to thalamic input. Our theory establishes a general framework for modeling finite-size neural population dynamics based on single cell and synapse parameters and offers an efficient approach to analyzing cortical circuits and computations.

Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

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Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

2018-01-01

In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postma, J.

1989-01-01

In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

Active recruitment and limited participant-load related to high participation in large population-based biobank studies

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van Zon, Sander K. R.; Scholtens, Salome; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.; Smidt, Nynke; Bultmann, Ute

2016-01-01

Objectives: Insight into baseline participation rates and their determinants is crucial for designing future population-based biobank studies. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of baseline participation rates and their determinants in large longitudinal population-based

Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

2013-01-01

Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

Sports and leisure-time physical activity in pregnancy and birth weight: a population-based study.

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Hegaard, H K; Petersson, K; Hedegaard, M; Ottesen, B; Dykes, A K; Henriksen, T B; Damm, P

2010-02-01

We examined the association between sports and other leisure-time physical activities during pregnancy and birth weight of babies born after 37 completed weeks of gestation. All Danish-speaking pregnant women attending routine antenatal care at the Department of Obstetrics, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, from August 1989 to September 1991 were invited to participate in the study. A total of 4458 healthy women who delivered after 37 completed gestational weeks participated in this study. The associations between sports (0, 1-2, 3+ h/week) or leisure-time physical activity (sedentary, light, and moderate to heavy) and birth weight were examined by linear and logistic regression and adjusted for potential confounding factors such as smoking, parity, schooling, pre-pregnancy body mass index and gestational age. The results showed that pregnant women who practiced sports or were moderate to heavy leisure-time physical active during the early second or the early third trimester gave birth to infants with a similar birth weight as inactive women. The proportion of newborns with a low (/=4500 g) was also unchanged. In conclusion, in this large population-based study, we found no association between sports and leisure-time physical activity and low-birth weight, high-birth weight, or average-birth weight.

Gamified physical activation of young men--a Multidisciplinary Population-Based Randomized Controlled Trial (MOPO study).

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Ahola, Riikka; Pyky, Riitta; Jämsä, Timo; Mäntysaari, Matti; Koskimäki, Heli; Ikäheimo, Tiina M; Huotari, Maija-Leena; Röning, Juha; Heikkinen, Hannu I; Korpelainen, Raija

2013-01-14

Inactive and unhealthy lifestyles are common among adolescent men. The planned intervention examines the effectiveness of an interactive, gamified activation method, based on tailored health information, peer networks and participation, on physical activity, health and wellbeing in young men. We hypothesize that following the intervention the physical activation group will have an improved physical activity, as well as self-determined and measured health compared with the controls. Conscription-aged men (18 years) attending compulsory annual call-ups for military service in the city of Oulu in Finland (n = 1500) will be randomized to a 6-months intervention (n = 640) or a control group (n = 640) during the fall 2013. A questionnaire on health, health behaviour, diet and wellbeing is administered in the beginning and end of the intervention. In addition, anthropometric measures (height, weight and waist circumference), body composition, grip strength, heart rate variability and aerobic fitness will be measured. The activation group utilizes an online gamified activation method in combination with communal youth services, objective physical activity measurement, social networking, tailored health information and exercise programs according to baseline activity level and the readiness of changes of each individual. Daily physical activity of the participants is monitored in both the activation and control groups. The activation service rewards improvements in physical activity or reductions in sedentary behaviour. The performance and completion of the military service of the participants will also be followed. The study will provide new information of physical activity, health and health behaviour of young men. Furthermore, a novel model including methods for increasing physical activity among young people is developed and its effects tested through an intervention. This unique gamified service for activating young men can provide a translational model for community

Query Health: standards-based, cross-platform population health surveillance.

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Klann, Jeffrey G; Buck, Michael D; Brown, Jeffrey; Hadley, Marc; Elmore, Richard; Weber, Griffin M; Murphy, Shawn N

2014-01-01

Understanding population-level health trends is essential to effectively monitor and improve public health. The Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) Query Health initiative is a collaboration to develop a national architecture for distributed, population-level health queries across diverse clinical systems with disparate data models. Here we review Query Health activities, including a standards-based methodology, an open-source reference implementation, and three pilot projects. Query Health defined a standards-based approach for distributed population health queries, using an ontology based on the Quality Data Model and Consolidated Clinical Document Architecture, Health Quality Measures Format (HQMF) as the query language, the Query Envelope as the secure transport layer, and the Quality Reporting Document Architecture as the result language. We implemented this approach using Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) and hQuery for data analytics and PopMedNet for access control, secure query distribution, and response. We deployed the reference implementation at three pilot sites: two public health departments (New York City and Massachusetts) and one pilot designed to support Food and Drug Administration post-market safety surveillance activities. The pilots were successful, although improved cross-platform data normalization is needed. This initiative resulted in a standards-based methodology for population health queries, a reference implementation, and revision of the HQMF standard. It also informed future directions regarding interoperability and data access for ONC's Data Access Framework initiative. Query Health was a test of the learning health system that supplied a functional methodology and reference implementation for distributed population health queries that has been validated at three sites. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

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Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J

Effect of chemical composition on the flocculation dynamics of latex-based synthetic activated sludge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan Phong Nguyen; Hankins, Nicholas P.; Hilal, Nidal

2007-01-01

This study investigates the effect of calcium, alginate, fibrous cellulose, and pH on the flocculation dynamics and final properties of synthetic activated sludges. A laboratory-scale batch reactor, fed with standard synthetic sludges was used. The effects of varying calcium concentration (5-25 mM), alginate concentration (25-125 mg/L), fibrous cellulose concentration (0.2-0.8 g/L) and pH (3-9) on the sludge characteristics were studied by varying one parameter whilst keeping the others constant. The results from experiments indicated that the calcium, alginate, fibrous cellulose, and pH had the critical effect on the aggregation rate, flocs size, and made the improvement of the final properties of sludge. Dynamic measurements have established the optimum conditions for floc formation and can accurately reflect the state of formation of the synthetic activated sludge flocs. These correlate well with measurements of settleability and turbidity of the synthetic activated sludge. The results of this study support the bonding theory and indicate that formation of cations-polymer complexes and polymer gelation are important means of flocculation. The development of synthetic activated sludges is suggested also to be a possible surrogate for studying the final properties of activated sludge

Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse.

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Kamil Erguler

Full Text Available The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.

Integral control for population management.

Science.gov (United States)

Guiver, Chris; Logemann, Hartmut; Rebarber, Richard; Bill, Adam; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Hodgson, Dave; Townley, Stuart

2015-04-01

We present a novel management methodology for restocking a declining population. The strategy uses integral control, a concept ubiquitous in control theory which has not been applied to population dynamics. Integral control is based on dynamic feedback-using measurements of the population to inform management strategies and is robust to model uncertainty, an important consideration for ecological models. We demonstrate from first principles why such an approach to population management is suitable via theory and examples.

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

OpenAIRE

Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-01-01

This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

2016-01-01

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

2012-02-01

Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

2018-03-01

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

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Qingjian Ni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

2008-11-21

Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stepanov, Serguei

2008-01-01

Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

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Rita M Araújo

Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2014-01-01

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and

Historical Processes and Contemporary Anthropogenic Activities Influence Genetic Population Dynamics of Nassau Grouper (Epinephelus striatus within The Bahamas

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Krista D. Sherman

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Severe declines of endangered Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus across The Bahamas and Caribbean have spurred efforts to improve their fisheries management and population conservation. The Bahamas is reported to hold the majority of fish spawning aggregations for Nassau grouper, however, the status and genetic population structure of fish within the country is largely unknown, presenting a major knowledge gap for their sustainable management. Between August 2014–February 2017, 464 individual Nassau grouper sampled from The Bahamas were genotyped using 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci to establish measures of population structure, genetic diversity and effective population size (Ne. Nassau grouper were characterized by mostly high levels of genetic diversity, but we found no evidence for geographic population structure. Microsatellite analyses revealed weak, but significant genetic differentiation of Nassau grouper throughout the Bahamian archipelago (Global FST 0.00236, p = 0.0001. Temporal analyses of changes in Ne over the last 1,000 generations provide evidence in support of a pronounced historic decline in Bahamian Nassau grouper that appears to pre-date anthropogenic fishing activities. M-ratio results corroborate significant reductions in Ne throughout The Bahamas, with evidence for population bottlenecks in three islands and an active fish spawning aggregation along with apparent signs of inbreeding at two islands. Current estimates of Ne for Nassau grouper are considerably lower compared with historic levels. These findings represent important new contributions to our understanding of the evolutionary history, demographics and genetic connectivity of this endangered species, which are of critical importance for advancing their sustainable management.

Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

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Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

2014-12-01

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

[Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

Science.gov (United States)

Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

2000-01-01

Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

Quantifying unsteadiness and dynamics of pulsatory volcanic activity

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Dominguez, L.; Pioli, L.; Bonadonna, C.; Connor, C. B.; Andronico, D.; Harris, A. J. L.; Ripepe, M.

2016-06-01

Pulsatory eruptions are marked by a sequence of explosions which can be separated by time intervals ranging from a few seconds to several hours. The quantification of the periodicities associated with these eruptions is essential not only for the comprehension of the mechanisms controlling explosivity, but also for classification purposes. We focus on the dynamics of pulsatory activity and quantify unsteadiness based on the distribution of the repose time intervals between single explosive events in relation to magma properties and eruptive styles. A broad range of pulsatory eruption styles are considered, including Strombolian, violent Strombolian and Vulcanian explosions. We find a general relationship between the median of the observed repose times in eruptive sequences and the viscosity of magma given by η ≈ 100 ṡtmedian. This relationship applies to the complete range of magma viscosities considered in our study (102 to 109 Pa s) regardless of the eruption length, eruptive style and associated plume heights, suggesting that viscosity is the main magma property controlling eruption periodicity. Furthermore, the analysis of the explosive sequences in terms of failure time through statistical survival analysis provides further information: dynamics of pulsatory activity can be successfully described in terms of frequency and regularity of the explosions, quantified based on the log-logistic distribution. A linear relationship is identified between the log-logistic parameters, μ and s. This relationship is useful for quantifying differences among eruptive styles from very frequent and regular mafic events (Strombolian activity) to more sporadic and irregular Vulcanian explosions in silicic systems. The time scale controlled by the parameter μ, as a function of the median of the distribution, can be therefore correlated with the viscosity of magmas; while the complexity of the erupting system, including magma rise rate, degassing and fragmentation efficiency

Selection of Activities in Dynamic Business Process Simulation

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Toma Rusinaitė

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Maintaining dynamicity of business processes is one of the core issues of today's business as it enables businesses to adapt to constantly changing environment. Upon changing the processes, it is vital to assess possible impact, which is achieved by using simulation of dynamic processes. In order to implement dynamicity in business processes, it is necessary to have an ability to change components of the process (a set of activities, a content of activity, a set of activity sequences, a set of rules, performers and resources or dynamically select them during execution. This problem attracted attention of researches over the past few years; however, there is no proposed solution, which ensures the business process (BP dynamicity. This paper proposes and specifies dynamic business process (DBP simulation model, which satisfies all of the formulated DBP requirements.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in Structured Populations

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Santos, Marta Daniela de Almeida

The pervasiveness of cooperation in Nature is not easily explained. If evolution is characterized by competition and survival of the fittest, why should selfish individuals cooperate with each other? Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) provides a suitable mathematical framework to study this problem, central to many areas of science. Conventionally, interactions between individuals are modeled in terms of one-shot, symmetric 2-Person Dilemmas of Cooperation, but many real-life situations involve decisions within groups with more than 2 individuals, which are best-dealt in the framework of N-Person games. In this Thesis, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of two paradigmatic collective social dilemmas - the N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma (NPD) and the N-Person Snowdrift Game (NSG) on structured populations, modeled by networks with diverse topological properties. Cooperative strategies are just one example of the many traits that can be transmitted on social networks. Several recent studies based on empirical evidence from a medical database have suggested the existence of a 3 degrees of influence rule, according to which not only our "friends", but also our friends' friends, and our friends' friends' friends, have a non-trivial influence on our decisions. We investigate the degree of peer influence that emerges from the spread of cooperative strategies, opinions and diseases on populations with distinct underlying networks of contacts. Our results show that networks naturally entangle individuals into interactions of many-body nature and that for each network class considered different processes lead to identical degrees of influence. None

Dynamics of data flows on the low-activated vanadium alloy for thermonuclear power engineering (analysis of four international data bases)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepelev, A.G.; Kurilo, Yu.P.; Krivchenko, O.V.

2015-01-01

The paper presents the results of scientometric analysis of data flows in the International Data Bases SCOPUS, INSPEC, INIS, MSCI over a period since 1971 to 2014 on low-activated vanadium alloys suitable for operation as structural materials under extremely hard conditions in the future fusion reactors. The data on the dynamics of publications and contributions in them from the scientists of different countries have been obtained. The types and languages of publications have been identified. The analysis shows that investigations on the low-activated vanadium alloys are of current importance

Regular physical activity reduces hospital admission and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population based cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

2006-01-01

.97). Low, moderate and high levels of regular physical activity were associated with an adjusted lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 0.76, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.90) and respiratory mortality (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.02). No effect modification was found for sex, age group, COPD severity......BACKGROUND: Information about the influence of regular physical activity on the course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is scarce. A study was undertaken to examine the association between regular physical activity and both hospital admissions for COPD and all-cause and specific...... mortality in COPD subjects. METHODS: From a population-based sample recruited in Copenhagen in 1981-3 and 1991-4, 2386 individuals with COPD (according to lung function tests) were identified and followed until 2000. Self-reported regular physical activity at baseline was classified into four categories...

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

Assessing Genomic Selection Prediction Accuracy in a Dynamic Barley Breeding Population

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A. H. Sallam

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Prediction accuracy of genomic selection (GS has been previously evaluated through simulation and cross-validation; however, validation based on progeny performance in a plant breeding program has not been investigated thoroughly. We evaluated several prediction models in a dynamic barley breeding population comprised of 647 six-row lines using four traits differing in genetic architecture and 1536 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers. The breeding lines were divided into six sets designated as one parent set and five consecutive progeny sets comprised of representative samples of breeding lines over a 5-yr period. We used these data sets to investigate the effect of model and training population composition on prediction accuracy over time. We found little difference in prediction accuracy among the models confirming prior studies that found the simplest model, random regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP, to be accurate across a range of situations. In general, we found that using the parent set was sufficient to predict progeny sets with little to no gain in accuracy from generating larger training populations by combining the parent set with subsequent progeny sets. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.03 to 0.99 across the four traits and five progeny sets. We explored characteristics of the training and validation populations (marker allele frequency, population structure, and linkage disequilibrium, LD as well as characteristics of the trait (genetic architecture and heritability, . Fixation of markers associated with a trait over time was most clearly associated with reduced prediction accuracy for the mycotoxin trait DON. Higher trait in the training population and simpler trait architecture were associated with greater prediction accuracy.