WorldWideScience

Sample records for dynamic activity-based population

  1. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  2. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  3. Population dynamics of reindeer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Baskin

    1990-09-01

    Full Text Available Five types of reindeer populations are distinguished in terms of population dynamics, population density, social structure and migration distance. Differences in the biological rhythms of the populations result in calving occuring 20 days before snow melting in all populations as well as maximal utilization by the deer of young green vegetation in summer. The growth of antlers may serve as a regulatior of biological rhytms. Populations differ in the level of social motivation. Formation of groups of not less than 30-35 animals ensures cooperative protection from insects and management of the group by man. The fidelity to the calving sites, summer ranges and constant migration routes is based on the common orientation reactions of the animals and social attraction. The direction and migration routes are detemined by obligate learning. The dynamics of populations depends on the fertility of 2 and 3 year old females which is determined by feeding conditions in summer and the activity of males during the rut. Migration plays an important role in the population dynamics.

  4. Language dynamics in finite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarova, Natalia L; Nowak, Martin A

    2003-04-01

    Any mechanism of language acquisition can only learn a restricted set of grammars. The human brain contains a mechanism for language acquisition which can learn a restricted set of grammars. The theory of this restricted set is universal grammar (UG). UG has to be sufficiently specific to induce linguistic coherence in a population. This phenomenon is known as "coherence threshold". Previously, we have calculated the coherence threshold for deterministic dynamics and infinitely large populations. Here, we extend the framework to stochastic processes and finite populations. If there is selection for communicative function (selective language dynamics), then the analytic results for infinite populations are excellent approximations for finite populations; as expected, finite populations need a slightly higher accuracy of language acquisition to maintain coherence. If there is no selection for communicative function (neutral language dynamics), then linguistic coherence is only possible for finite populations.

  5. AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agriculture has contributed to loss of vertebrate biodiversity in many regions, including the U.S. Corn Belt. Amphibian populations, in particular, have experienced widespread and often inexplicable declines, range reductions, and extinctions. However, few attempts have been made...

  6. Africa population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.; Omme, van G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million

  7. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  8. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  9. Models of ungulate population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. L. Eberhardt

    1991-10-01

    Full Text Available A useful theory for analyzing ungulate population dynamics is available in the form of equations based on the work of A. J. Lotka. Because the Leslie matrix model yields identical results and is widely known, it is convenient to label the resulting equations as the "Lotka-Leslie" model. The approach is useful for assessing population trends and attempting to predict the outcomes of various management actions. A broad list of applications to large mammals, and two examples specific to caribou are presented with a simple spreadsheet approach to calculations.

  10. Time-driven activity-based costing: A dynamic value assessment model in pediatric appendicitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yangyang R; Abbas, Paulette I; Smith, Carolyn M; Carberry, Kathleen E; Ren, Hui; Patel, Binita; Nuchtern, Jed G; Lopez, Monica E

    2017-06-01

    Healthcare reform policies are emphasizing value-based healthcare delivery. We hypothesize that time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) can be used to appraise healthcare interventions in pediatric appendicitis. Triage-based standing delegation orders, surgical advanced practice providers, and a same-day discharge protocol were implemented to target deficiencies identified in our initial TDABC model. Post-intervention process maps for a hospital episode were created using electronic time stamp data for simple appendicitis cases during February to March 2016. Total personnel and consumable costs were determined using TDABC methodology. The post-intervention TDABC model featured 6 phases of care, 33 processes, and 19 personnel types. Our interventions reduced duration and costs in the emergency department (-41min, -$23) and pre-operative floor (-57min, -$18). While post-anesthesia care unit duration and costs increased (+224min, +$41), the same-day discharge protocol eliminated post-operative floor costs (-$306). Our model incorporating all three interventions reduced total direct costs by 11% ($2753.39 to $2447.68) and duration of hospitalization by 51% (1984min to 966min). Time-driven activity-based costing can dynamically model changes in our healthcare delivery as a result of process improvement interventions. It is an effective tool to continuously assess the impact of these interventions on the value of appendicitis care. II, Type of study: Economic Analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Identifying predictors of activity based anorexia susceptibility in diverse genetic rodent populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eneda Pjetri

    Full Text Available Animal studies are very useful in detection of early disease indicators and in unravelling the pathophysiological processes underlying core psychiatric disorder phenotypes. Early indicators are critical for preventive and efficient treatment of progressive psychiatric disorders like anorexia nervosa. Comparable to physical hyperactivity observed in anorexia nervosa patients, in the activity-based anorexia rodent model, mice and rats express paradoxical high voluntary wheel running activity levels when food restricted. Eleven inbred mouse strains and outbred Wistar WU rats were exposed to the activity-based anorexia model in search of identifying susceptibility predictors. Body weight, food intake and wheel running activity levels of each individual mouse and rat were measured. Mouse strains and rats with high wheel running activity levels during food restriction exhibited accelerated body weight loss. Linear mixed models for repeated measures analysis showed that baseline wheel running activity levels preceding the scheduled food restriction phase strongly predicted activity-based anorexia susceptibility (mice: Beta  =  -0.0158 (±0.003 SE, P<0.0001; rats: Beta  =  -0.0242 (±0.004 SE, P<0.0001 compared to other baseline parameters. These results suggest that physical activity levels play an important role in activity-based anorexia susceptibility in different rodent species with genetically diverse background. These findings support previous retrospective studies on physical activity levels in anorexia nervosa patients and indicate that pre-morbid physical activity levels could reflect an early indicator for disease severity.

  12. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  13. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  14. Population dynamics of defensive symbionts in aphids

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kerry M Oliver; Jaime Campos; Nancy A Moran; Martha S Hunter

    2008-01-01

    .... While laboratory studies have identified diverse beneficial effects conferred by inherited symbionts of insects, they have not explicitly examined the population dynamics of mutualist symbiont...

  15. Population Dynamics of Viral Inactivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Krista; Li, Dong; Behrens, Manja; Streletzky, Kiril; Olsson, Ulf; Evilevitch, Alex

    We have investigated the population dynamics of viral inactivation in vitrousing time-resolved cryo electron microscopy combined with light and X-ray scattering techniques. Using bacteriophage λ as a model system for pressurized double-stranded DNA viruses, we found that virions incubated with their cell receptor eject their genome in a stochastic triggering process. The triggering of DNA ejection occurs in a non synchronized manner after the receptor addition, resulting in an exponential decay of the number of genome-filled viruses with time. We have explored the characteristic time constant of this triggering process at different temperatures, salt conditions, and packaged genome lengths. Furthermore, using the temperature dependence we determined an activation energy for DNA ejections. The dependences of the time constant and activation energy on internal DNA pressure, affected by salt conditions and encapsidated genome length, suggest that the triggering process is directly dependent on the conformational state of the encapsidated DNA. The results of this work provide insight into how the in vivo kinetics of the spread of viral infection are influenced by intra- and extra cellular environmental conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1252522.

  16. Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Erez

    2005-03-01

    Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

  17. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.A population dynamics model was developed to simulate the basic processes of the life c

  18. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  19. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  20. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  1. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  2. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  3. Curating Transient Population in Urban Dynamics System

    CERN Document Server

    Thakur, Gautam S; Stewart, Robert N; Urban, Marie L; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2016-01-01

    For past several decades, research efforts in population modelling has proven its efficacy in understanding the basic information about residential and commercial areas, as well as for the purposes of planning, development and improvement of the community as an eco-system. More or less, such efforts assume static nature of population distribution, in turn limited by the current ability to capture the dynamics of population change at a finer resolution of space and time. Fast forward today, more and more people are becoming mobile, traveling across borders impacting the nuts and bolts of our urban fabric. Unfortunately, our current efforts are being surpassed by the need to capture such transient population. It is becoming imperative to identify and define them, as well as measure their dynamics and interconnectedness. In this work, we intend to research urban population mobility patterns, gauge their transient nature, and extend our knowledge of their visited locations. We plan to achieve this by designing an...

  4. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    it is well established that climatic as well as biological factors, in concert, form the mechanistic basis for our understanding of how populations develop over time and across space. Although this seemingly suggests simplicity, the climate-biology dichotomy of population dynamics embraces...... a bewildering number of interactions. For example, individuals within a population may compete for space and other resources and, being embedded in an ecosystem, individuals in any population may also interact with individuals of competing species as well as those from adjacent trophic levels. In principal...

  5. Nonlinear fractal dynamics of human colonic pressure activity based upon the box-counting method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Rongguo; Guo, Xudong

    2013-01-01

    The computational fractal dimension of human colonic pressure activity acquired by a telemetric capsule robot under normal physiological conditions was studied using the box-counting method. The fractal dimension is a numeric value that quantifies to measure how rough the signal is from nonlinear dynamics, rather than its amplitude or other linear statistical features. The colonic pressure activities from the healthy subject during three typical periods were analysed. The results showed that the activity might be fractal with a non-integer fractal dimension after it being integrated over time using the cumsum method, which was never revealed before. Moreover, the activity (after it being integrated) acquired soon after wakening up was the roughest (also the most complex one) with the largest fractal dimension, closely followed by that acquired during sleep with that acquired long time after awakening up (in the daytime) ranking third with the smallest fractal dimension. Fractal estimation might provide a new method to learn the nonlinear dynamics of human gastrointestinal pressure recordings.

  6. Detection, Diversity, and Population Dynamics of Waterborne Phytophthora ramorum Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyre, C A; Garbelotto, M

    2015-01-01

    Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed routinely; however, little is known about the nature of water-borne P. ramorum populations. Two drainages in an infested California forest were monitored intensively using stream-baiting for 2 years between 2009 and 2011. Pathogen presence was determined both by isolation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from symptomatic bait leaves. Isolates were analyzed using simple sequence repeats to study population dynamics and genetic structure through time. Isolation was successful primarily only during spring conditions, while PCR extended the period of pathogen detection to most of the year. Water populations were extremely diverse, and changed between seasons and years. A few abundant genotypes dominated the water during conditions considered optimal for aerial populations, and matched those dominant in aerial populations. Temporal patterns of genotypic diversification and evenness were identical among aerial, soil, and water populations, indicating that all three substrates are part of the same epidemiological cycle, strongly influenced by rainfall and sporulation on leaves. However, there was structuring between substrates, likely arising due to reduced selection pressure in the water. Additionally, water populations showed wholesale mixing of genotypes without the evident spatial autocorrelation present in leaf and soil populations.

  7. Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

    2016-10-01

    Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

  8. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  9. Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

    2016-08-01

    The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

  10. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  11. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khasin, M; Dykman, M I

    2009-08-01

    Population extinction is of central interest for population dynamics. It may occur from a large rare fluctuation. We find that, in contrast to related large-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation systems display fragility, where the height of the effective barrier to be overcome in the fluctuation depends on the system parameters nonanalytically. We show that one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the susceptible-infectious-susceptible model, is fragile to total population fluctuations.

  12. A disaggregate pseudo-dynamic assignment for the activity-based model of the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    ) capturing time-dependent interactions of travel demand and network supply of the network; (ii) representing the network at a disaggregate level; (iii) representing congestion build-up and dissipation; (iv) evaluating the effect of traffic management measures and traffic policies. When considering the main...... of Copenhageners to the multimodal network of the Greater Copenhagen Area. This paper focuses on the development of the framework for the supply side of the COMPAS model. The framework is developed by considering that using an activity-based paradigm with a static traffic assignment negates much of the advantages...... of predicting travel patterns at the disaggregate level in continuous time. Accordingly, the proposed traffic assignment is individual-based, pseudo-dynamic, and multi-modal. Firstly, the assignment loads onto the network activity and travel patterns of the individuals between parcels. Secondly, the framework...

  13. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  14. Dynamical quorum sensing: Population density encoded in cellular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Monte, Silvia; d'Ovidio, Francesco; Danø, Sune; Sørensen, Preben Graae

    2007-01-01

    Mutual synchronization by exchange of chemicals is a mechanism for the emergence of collective dynamics in cellular populations. General theories exist on the transition to coherence, but no quantitative, experimental demonstration has been given. Here, we present a modeling and experimental analysis of cell-density-dependent glycolytic oscillations in yeast. We study the disappearance of oscillations at low cell density and show that this phenomenon occurs synchronously in all cells and not by desynchronization, as previously expected. This study identifies a general scenario for the emergence of collective cellular oscillations and suggests a quorum-sensing mechanism by which the cell density information is encoded in the intracellular dynamical state. PMID:18003917

  15. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  16. A dynamic network in a dynamic population: asymptotic properties

    CERN Document Server

    Britton, Tom; Turova, Tatyana

    2011-01-01

    We derive asymptotic properties for a stochastic dynamic network model in a stochastic dynamic population. In the model, nodes give birth to new nodes until they die, each node being equipped with a social index given at birth. During the life of a node it creates edges to other nodes, nodes with high social index at higher rate, and edges disappear randomly in time. For this model we derive criterion for when a giant connected component exists after the process has evolved for a long period of time, assuming the node population grows to infinity. We also obtain an explicit expression for the degree correlation $\\rho$ (of neighbouring nodes) which shows that $\\rho$ is always positive irrespective of parameter values in one of the two treated submodels, and may be either positive or negative in the other model, depending on the parameters.

  17. Population Code Dynamics in Categorical Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, Chihiro I; Tajima, Satohiro; Koida, Kowa; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

    2016-03-03

    Categorical perception is a ubiquitous function in sensory information processing, and is reported to have important influences on the recognition of presented and/or memorized stimuli. However, such complex interactions among categorical perception and other aspects of sensory processing have not been explained well in a unified manner. Here, we propose a recurrent neural network model to process categorical information of stimuli, which approximately realizes a hierarchical Bayesian estimation on stimuli. The model accounts for a wide variety of neurophysiological and cognitive phenomena in a consistent framework. In particular, the reported complexity of categorical effects, including (i) task-dependent modulation of neural response, (ii) clustering of neural population representation, (iii) temporal evolution of perceptual color memory, and (iv) a non-uniform discrimination threshold, are explained as different aspects of a single model. Moreover, we directly examine key model behaviors in the monkey visual cortex by analyzing neural population dynamics during categorization and discrimination of color stimuli. We find that the categorical task causes temporally-evolving biases in the neuronal population representations toward the focal colors, which supports the proposed model. These results suggest that categorical perception can be achieved by recurrent neural dynamics that approximates optimal probabilistic inference in the changing environment.

  18. Nonlocal Crowd Dynamics Models for several Populations

    CERN Document Server

    Colombo, Rinaldo M

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops the basic analytical theory related to some recently introduced crowd dynamics models. Where well posedness was known only locally in time, it is here extended to all of $\\reali^+$. The results on the stability with respect to the equations are improved. Moreover, here the case of several populations is considered, obtaining the well posedness of systems of multi-D non-local conservation laws. The basic analytical tools are provided by the classical Kruzkov theory of scalar conservation laws in several space dimensions.

  19. NONLOCAL CROWD DYNAMICS MODELS FOR SEVERAL POPULATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rinaldo M. Colombo; Magali Lécureux-Mercier

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops the basic analytical theory related to some recently introduced crowd dynamics models.Where well posedness was known only locally in time,it is here extended to all of R+.The results on the stability with respect to the equations are improved.Moreover,here the case of several populations is considered,obtaining the well posedness of systems of multi-D non-local conservation laws.The basic analytical tools are provided by the classical Kru(z)kov theory of scalar conservation laws in several space dimensions.

  20. A population dynamics approach to biological aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.

    A dynamical model for aging in biological population is discussed where asexual reproduction is considered. The maximum life span is inherited from parent to offspring with some random mutations described by a transition matrix, and the fertile period begins at a defined age R. The intra species competition is modeled through a Verhulst-like factor. Discrete time evolution equations are iterated and the transient and asymptotic solutions are obtained. When only bad mutations are taken into account, the stationary solutions are obtained analytically. The results are applied to the Penna model.

  1. On the contradiction between the statistical parameters of population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Korosov Andrey

    2012-01-01

    A model simulating the dynamics of the field vole (Microtus agrestis) numerosity during one year was built. The purpose of modeling was to reproduce the values of population characteristics, averaged over a long period of field observations. It was found that long-term average population characteristics can not be observed in any one year of simulated population life. A model population with an average long-term dynamics of age structure can not sustain long-term population dynamics. Long-ter...

  2. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Rossi, Vivien; Guillot, Gilles;

    2013-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely used to predict population dynamics, but when applied to species-rich ecosystems with many rare species, the small population sample sizes hinder a good fit of species-specific models. This issue can be overcome by assigning species to groups to increase the size...... species with similar population dynamics....

  5. Biotic Population Dynamics: Creative Biotic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabelli, Hector; Kovacevic, Lazar

    We present empirical studies and computer models of population dynamics that demonstrate creative features and we speculate that these creative processes may underline evolution. Changes in population size of lynx, muskrat, beaver, salmon, and fox display diversification, episodic changes in pattern, novelty, and evidence for nonrandom causation. These features of creativity characterize bios, and rule out random, periodic, chaotic, and random walk patterns. Biotic patterns are also demonstrated in time series generated with multi-agent predator-prey simulations. These results indicate that evolutionary processes are continually operating. In contrast to standard evolutionary theory (random variation, competition for scarce resources, selection by survival of the fittest, and directionless, meaningless evolution), we propose that biological evolution is a creative development from simple to complex in which (1) causal actions generate biological variation; (2) bipolar feedback (synergy and antagonism, abundance and scarcity) generates information (diversification, novelty and complexity); (3) connections (of molecules, genes, species) construct systems in which simple processes have priority for survival but complex processes acquire supremacy.

  6. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... strategies, predicting the responses of populations to environmental change or disturbance, and understanding population processes and life-history evolution in variable environments. Transient perturbation analyses are vital tools for achieving these aims. They assess how transient dynamics are affected...... of model being analysed, the perturbation structure, the population response of interest, nonlinear response to perturbation, standardization for asymptotic dynamics, the initial population structure, and the time frame of interest. I discuss these with reference to the application of transient...

  7. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron E Darling

    represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  8. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessen, D.; de Roos, A.M.; Persson, L.

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its fou

  9. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessen, D.; de Roos, A.M.; Persson, L.

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its fou

  10. Population dynamics in biological treatment process. ; Population dynamics of bacteria for biological phosphorus removal. Population dynamics to kankyo joka. ; Datsurin kin gun no population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okada, M. (Hiroshima Univ., Hiroshima (Japan). Faculty of Engineering)

    1992-09-10

    The microbial industry can easily cultivate only the specific microorganism by introducing the closed reaction system and the sterile operation. When the superior bacteria is selected or it is created by the gene manipulation, therefore, it is not so much difficult that it is utilized for production. Since the water treatment is an open reaction system many microorganisms can join, however, it becomes to be important that how the necessary microorganisms, for example, the dephosphorylation bacteria etc. out of them are let fixed in the reaction system, and win in a competition with the other microorganisms, and in addition, are let display their functions stably for a long period. In this regard, in this paper, concerning to the issues that whether the dephosphorylation bacteria exists or not, how the behavior of dephosphorylation bacteria in the activated sludge should be clarified, what kind of behavior the dephosphorylation bacteria shows in the dephosphorylation activated sludge and so forth, grasping the population dynamics of microorganism, and furthermore, including the methodology to control it, is outlined. 31 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-08-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks.

  13. Microbial population dynamics by digital in-line holographic microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frentz, Zak; Kuehn, Seppe; Hekstra, Doeke; Leibler, Stanislas

    2010-08-01

    Measurements of population dynamics are ubiquitous in experiments with microorganisms. Studies with microbes elucidating adaptation, selection, and competition rely on measurements of changing populations in time. Despite this importance, quantitative methods for measuring population dynamics microscopically, with high time resolution, across many replicates remain limited. Here we present a new noninvasive method to precisely measure microbial spatiotemporal population dynamics based on digital in-line holographic (DIH) microscopy. Our inexpensive, replicate DIH microscopes imaged hundreds of swimming algae in three dimensions within a volume of several microliters on a time scale of minutes over periods of weeks.

  14. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  15. Introducing Dynamic Analysis Using Malthus's Principle of Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pingle, Mark

    2003-01-01

    Declares the use of dynamic models is increasing in macroeconomics. Explains how to introduce dynamic models to students whose technical skills are modest or varied. Chooses Malthus's Principle of Population as a natural context for introducing dynamic analysis because it provides a method for reviewing the mathematical tools and theoretical…

  16. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave

    2014-01-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source...... populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found...

  17. Synchronization Phenomena in an Array of Population Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postnov, D.E.; Balanov, A.G.; Mosekilde, Erik

    1998-01-01

    The paper applies continuation methods to examine synchronization phenomena that can arise in a cascaded system of population dynamic models. The individual model describes a bacterial population interacting with a population of viruses that attack the cells. Coupling between the subsystems...

  18. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, K

    1985-01-29

    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.

  19. Population dynamics of patella vulgata in orkney

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, J. M.

    A population of Patella vulgata has been studied at Dyke-end, in Orkney. The population had a polymodal distribution, within which several year-classes were identified. Spawning occured between January and April each year and the first signs of spat settlement were recorded between August and October. Growth was suppressed over the winter months and increased during the summer, although the mature proportion of the population showed a reduction in growth rate at the onset of gonad development. Annual fluctuations in population density were attributed to spat recruitment and subsequent mortality of animals of < 30 mm lenght; little mortality of lager animals occurred.

  20. Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankovic, Masha; Petrovskii, Sergei; Banerjee, Malay

    2016-08-01

    Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations.

  1. Role of finite populations in determining evolutionary dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Tane S.; Payne, Karl A.; Moseley, L. Leo

    2008-02-01

    The connection between the finite size of an evolving population and its dynamical behavior is examined through analytical and computational studies of a simple model of evolution. The infinite population limit of the model is shown to be governed by a special case of the quasispecies equations. A flat fitness landscape yields identical results for the dynamics of infinite and finite populations. On the other hand, a monotonically increasing fitness landscape shows “epochs” in the dynamics of finite populations that become more pronounced as the rate of mutation decreases. The details of the dynamics are profoundly different for any two simulation runs in that events arising from the stochastic noise in the pseudorandom number sequence are amplified. As the population size is increased or, equivalently, the mutation rate is increased, these epochs become smaller but do not entirely disappear.

  2. Statistical Dynamics of Regional Populations and Economies

    CERN Document Server

    Huo, Jie; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    2016-01-01

    A practical statistical analysis on the regional populations and GDPs of China is conducted. The result shows that the distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeys the shifted power law, respectively. To understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed based on the correlation between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation, and the solution demonstrates a transform of population distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law. It also suggests a critical point of time at which the transform occurs. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, and presents a change from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This result indicates that the...

  3. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    be ASP free. However, further studies are required to ascertain DA production in coastal waters of Tanzania. ... in the region poses a threat to human health and to the developing ..... relationship with the population density of. Pseudo-nitzschia.

  4. Infections of Wolbachia may destabilize mosquito population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telschow, Arndt; Grziwotz, Florian; Crain, Philip; Miki, Takeshi; Mains, James W; Sugihara, George; Dobson, Stephen L; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

    2017-09-07

    Recent efforts in controlling mosquito-borne diseases focus on biocontrol strategies that incapacitate pathogens inside mosquitoes by altering the mosquito's microbiome. A case in point is the introduction of Wolbachia into natural mosquito populations in order to eliminate Dengue virus. However, whether this strategy can successfully control vector-borne diseases is debated; particularly, how artificial infection affects population dynamics of hosts remains unclear. Here, we show that natural Wolbachia infections are associated with unstable mosquito population dynamics by contrasting Wolbachia-infected versus uninfected cage populations of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). By analyzing weekly data of adult mosquito abundances, we found that the variability of the infected populations is significantly higher than that of the uninfected. The elevated population variability is explained by increased instability in dynamics, as quantified by system nonlinearity (i.e., state-dependence). In addition, predictability of infected populations is substantially lower. A mathematical model analysis suggests that Wolbachia may alter mosquito population dynamics by modifying larval competition of hosts. These results encourage examination for effects of artificial Wolbachia establishment on mosquito populations, because an enhancement of population variability with reduced predictability could pose challenges in management. Our findings have implications for application of microbiome alterations in biocontrol programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Phase-space approach to multi-population dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Budko, Neil V

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneous deterministic dynamics of multiple populations described by a large set of ODE's is considered in the phase space of population sizes and ODE's parameters. The problem is formulated as a multidimensional phase-space conservation law and is solved explicitly for non-interacting multi-population models. Solutions for populations competing for a limited resource and populations with migration are obtained by simple iterative methods. The proposed approach also allows considering phase-space interaction between populations, which is intractable by other methods.

  6. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...

  7. Population dynamics of Anopheles nuneztovari in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naranjo-Díaz, Nelson; Sallum, Maria Anice M; Correa, Margarita M

    2016-11-01

    Anopheles nuneztovari is an important Colombian malaria vector widespread on both sides of the Andean Mountains, presenting morphological, behavioral and genetic heterogeneity throughout the country. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the population structure and distribution of An. nuneztovari in Colombia are associated with ecological and physical barriers present in a heterogeneous landscape. Further, differences in behavior were addressed. A total of 5392 specimens of An. nuneztovari were collected. Mitochondrial and nuclear marker analyses detected subdivision among the northwest-west, northeast and east populations. For both markers, isolation by distance (~53%) and isolation by resistance (>30%) were determinants of population genetic differentiation. This suggests that physical barriers, geographical distance and ecological differences on both sides of the Andean Mountains promoted the genetic differentiation and population subdivision of An. nuneztovari in Colombia. This species showed the highest biting activity after 20:00h; indoor and outdoor preferences were found in all localities. These results indicated that the most effective interventions for controlling vector populations on both sides of the Andes need to be region-specific. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Population dynamics of estuarine amphipods in Cochin backwaters

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, K.K.C.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.; Venugopal, P.; Peter, G.; Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Rao, T.S.S.

    Population dynamics of 11 gammarid amphipod species (belonging to 9 genera), collected from Cochin backwaters, have been studied for the first time, based on an year round collection. The species are : Corophium triaenonyx Stebbing, Photis digitata...

  9. Population dynamics of the king rails, Rallus elegans

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report describes the findings of research conducted by a team of biologists from East Carolina University. The project ‘Population Dynamics of the King Rail,...

  10. Effects of culling on mesopredator population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James C Beasley

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic changes in land use and the extirpation of apex predators have facilitated explosive growth of mesopredator populations. Consequently, many species have been subjected to extensive control throughout portions of their range due to their integral role as generalist predators and reservoirs of zoonotic disease. Yet, few studies have monitored the effects of landscape composition or configuration on the demographic or behavioral response of mesopredators to population manipulation. During 2007 we removed 382 raccoons (Procyon lotor from 30 forest patches throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to test hypotheses regarding the effects of habitat isolation on population recovery and role of range expansion and dispersal in patch colonization of mesopredators in heterogeneous landscapes. Patches were allowed to recolonize naturally and demographic restructuring of patches was monitored from 2008-2010 using mark-recapture. An additional 25 control patches were monitored as a baseline measure of demography. After 3 years only 40% of experimental patches had returned to pre-removal densities. This stagnant recovery was driven by low colonization rates of females, resulting in little to no within-patch recruitment. Colonizing raccoons were predominantly young males, suggesting that dispersal, rather than range expansion, was the primary mechanism driving population recovery. Contrary to our prediction, neither landscape connectivity nor measured local habitat attributes influenced colonization rates, likely due to the high dispersal capability of raccoons and limited role of range expansion in patch colonization. Although culling is commonly used to control local populations of many mesopredators, we demonstrate that such practices create severe disruptions in population demography that may be counterproductive to disease management in fragmented landscapes due to an influx of dispersing males into depopulated areas. However, given

  11. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  12. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingling; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular pop...

  13. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingling; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular pop...

  14. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  15. The frankincense tree of Ethiopia : ecology, productivity and population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshete Wassie, A.

    2011-01-01

    Keywords: Boswellian papyrifera, Frankincense tree, matrix model, population dynamics,
    population bottleneck, tapping. Combretum – Terminalia woodlands and Acacia – Commiphora woodlands are the two
    dominant vegetation types that cover large parts of the dry land areas in Eth

  16. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  17. Contributions of Alan C. Lazer to mathematical population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Cosner

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a survey of the contributions that Professor Alan C. Lazer has made to the mathematical theory of population dynamics. Specific areas where Professor Lazer has made important contributions include time periodic population models with diffusion and nonautonomous models for many competing species.

  18. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  19. Explaining "Noise" as Environmental Variations in Population Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ginn, Timothy R.; Loge, Frank J.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2007-03-01

    The impacts of human activities on our own and other populations on the plant are making news at an alarming pace. Global warming, ocean and freshwater contamination and acidification, deforestation, habitat destruction and incursion, and in general a burgeoning human population are associated with a complete spectrum of changes to the dynamics of populations. Effects on songbirds, insects, coral reefs, ocean mammals, anadromous fishes, just to name a few, and humans, have been linked to human industry and population growth. The linkage, however, remains often ghostly and often tenuous at best, because of the difficulty in quantitatively combining ecological processes with environmental fate and transport processes. Establishing quantitative tools, that is, models, for the combined dynamics of populations and environmental chemical/thermal things is needed. This truly interdisciplinary challenge is briefly reviewed, and two approaches to integrating chemical and biological intermingling are addressed in the context of salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest.

  20. AN INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE IN LARGE POPULATION STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC GAMES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Minyi HUANG; Peter E. CAINES; Roland P. MALHAM(E)

    2007-01-01

    We study large population stochastic dynamic games where the so-called Nash certainty equivalence based control laws are implemented by the individual players. We first show a martingale property for the limiting control problem of a single agent and then perform averaging across the population; this procedure leads to a constant value for the martingale which shows an invariance property of the population behavior induced by the Nash strategies.

  1. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    CERN Document Server

    Basuki, Thomas Anung; Barbuti, Roberto; Maggiolo-Schettini, Andrea; Milazzo, Paolo; Rossi, Elisabetta; 10.4204/EPTCS.33.2

    2010-01-01

    We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito) and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS) are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls) to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  2. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  3. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-08

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations-more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host-pathogen metapopulation.

  4. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate of

  5. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  6. Situational awareness of influenza activity based on multiple streams of surveillance data using multivariate dynamic linear model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric H Y Lau

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Multiple sources of influenza surveillance data are becoming more available; however integration of these data streams for situational awareness of influenza activity is less explored. METHODS AND RESULTS: We applied multivariate time-series methods to sentinel outpatient and school absenteeism surveillance data in Hong Kong during 2004-2009. School absenteeism data and outpatient surveillance data experienced interruptions due to school holidays and changes in public health guidelines during the pandemic, including school closures and the establishment of special designated flu clinics, which in turn provided 'drop-in' fever counts surveillance data. A multivariate dynamic linear model was used to monitor influenza activity throughout epidemics based on all available data. The inferred level followed influenza activity closely at different times, while the inferred trend was less competent with low influenza activity. Correlations between inferred level and trend from the multivariate model and reference influenza activity, measured by the product of weekly laboratory influenza detection rates and weekly general practitioner influenza-like illness consultation rates, were calculated and compared with those from univariate models. Over the whole study period, there was a significantly higher correlation (ρ = 0.82, p≤0.02 for the inferred trend based on the multivariate model compared to other univariate models, while the inferred trend from the multivariate model performed as well as the best univariate model in the pre-pandemic and the pandemic period. The inferred trend and level from the multivariate model was able to match, if not outperform, the best univariate model albeit with missing data plus drop-in and drop-out of different surveillance data streams. An overall influenza index combining level and trend was constructed to demonstrate another potential use of the method. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the

  7. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Andrew W; Lee, Ronald D; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2010-07-01

    Upward intergenerational flows - from the working ages to old age - are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages - the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  8. Population dynamics and the ecological stability of obligate pollination mutualisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2001-01-01

    Mutualistic interactions almost always produce both costs and benefits for each of the interacting species. It is the difference between gross benefits and costs that determines the net benefit and the per-capita effect on each of the interacting populations. For example, the net benefit of obligate pollinators, such as yucca and senita moths, to plants is determined by the difference between the number of ovules fertilized from moth pollination and the number of ovules eaten by the pollinator's larvae. It is clear that if pollinator populations are large, then, because many eggs are laid, costs to plants are large, whereas, if pollinator populations are small, gross benefits are low due to lack of pollination. Even though the size and dynamics of the pollinator population are likely to be crucial, their importance has been neglected in the investigation of mechanisms, such as selective fruit abortion, that can limit costs and increase net benefits. Here, we suggest that both the population size and dynamics of pollinators are important in determining the net benefits to plants, and that fruit abortion can significantly affect these. We develop a model of mutualism between populations of plants and their pollinating seed-predators to explore the ecological consequences of fruit abortion on pollinator population dynamics and the net effect on plants. We demonstrate that the benefit to a plant population is unimodal as a function of pollinator abundance, relative to the abundance of flowers. Both selective abortion of fruit with eggs and random abortion of fruit, without reference to whether they have eggs or not, can limit pollinator population size. This can increase the net benefits to the plant population by limiting the number of eggs laid, if the pollination rate remains high. However, fruit abortion can possibly destabilize the pollinator population, with negative consequences for the plant population.

  9. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  10. Population dynamics: Social security, markets, and families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ronald D.; Lee, Sang-Hyop

    2015-01-01

    Upward intergenerational flows – from the working ages to old age – are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages – the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are

  11. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. II. Habitat driven by voter dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebeler, David E; Hill, Jack L

    2016-10-21

    We examine a spatially explicit population model on a dynamic landscape with suitable and unsuitable habitat driven by voter or contagion dynamics. We consider four cases, consisting of all combinations of local and global interactions for both population dispersal and habitat dynamics. For both local and global population dispersal, using local habitat dynamics always increases population density relative to the case with global habitat dynamics, due to the resulting segregation of habitat turnover, decrease in effective habitat turnover rate, and presence of stable habitat corridors. With global habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal exhibits lower density than one with global dispersal due to local crowding as well as frequent disturbance due to habitat transitions. On the other hand, with local habitat dynamics, a population using local dispersal can exploit suitable habitat patches and use dynamic corridors to colonize new regions. The latter effect is not seen with static landscapes, where clustered habitat can lead to the isolation of suitable patches due to surrounding unsuitable habitat.

  12. An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rémy Beaudouin

    Full Text Available Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model. Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding, it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

  13. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    Small pelagic fish occupy a central position in marine ecosystems worldwide, largely by determining the energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators at the top of the food web, including humans. Population dynamics of small pelagic fish may therefore be regulated neither strictly bottom......-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...

  14. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Close, Dan; Xu, Tingling; Ripp, Steven; Sayler, Gary

    2015-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods. PMID:24166372

  15. Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Close, Dan [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Sayler, Gary Steven [ORNL; Xu, Tingting [ORNL; Ripp, Steven Anthony [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

  16. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  17. Cumulant dynamics in a finite population linkage equilibrium theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rattray, M; Rattray, Magnus; Shapiro, Jonathan L.

    1999-01-01

    The evolution of a finite population at linkage equilibrium is described in terms of the dynamics of phenotype distribution cumulants. This provides a powerful method for describing evolutionary transients and we elucidate the relationship between the cumulant dynamics and the diffusion approximation. A separation of time-scales between the first and higher cumulants for low mutation rates is demonstrated in the diffusion limit and provides a significant simplification of the dynamical system. However, the diffusion limit may not be appropriate for strong selection as the standard Fisher-Wright model of genetic drift can break down in this case. Two novel examples of this effect are considered: we shown that the dynamics may depend on the number of loci under strong directional selection and that environmental variance results in a reduced effective population size. We also consider a simple model of a changing environment which cannot be described by a diffusion equation and we derive the optimal mutation ra...

  18. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  19. Dynamics of Sequence -Discrete Bacterial Populations Inferred Using Metagenomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, Sarah; Bendall, Matthew; Kang, Dongwan; Froula, Jeff; Egan, Rob; Chan, Leong-Keat; Tringe, Susannah; McMahon, Katherine; Malmstrom, Rex

    2014-03-14

    From a multi-year metagenomic time series of two dissimilar Wisconsin lakes we have assembled dozens of genomes using a novel approach that bins contigs into distinct genome based on sequence composition, e.g. kmer frequencies, and contig coverage patterns at various times points. Next, we investigated how these genomes, which represent sequence-discrete bacterial populations, evolved over time and used the time series to discover the population dynamics. For example, we explored changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies as well as patterns of gene gain and loss in multiple populations. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in some populations during the course of this study, suggesting these populations may have experienced genome-wide selective sweeps. This represents the first direct, time-resolved observations of periodic selection in natural populations, a key process predicted by the ecotype model of bacterial diversification.

  20. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model......, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can...

  1. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  2. Competitive Lotka-Volterra Population Dynamics with Jumps

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Jianhai; Yin, Geroge; Yuan, Chenggui

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps. The contributions of this paper are as follows. (a) We show stochastic differential equation (SDE) with jumps associated with the model has a unique global positive solution; (b) We discuss the uniform boundedness of $p$th moment with $p>0$ and reveal the sample Lyapunov exponents; (c) Using a variation-of-constants formula for a class of SDEs with jumps, we provide explicit solution for 1-dimensional competitive Lotka-Volterra population dynamics with jumps, and investigate the sample Lyapunov exponent for each component and the extinction of our $n$-dimensional model.

  3. Atlantic bluefin tuna: population dynamics, ecology, fisheries and management

    OpenAIRE

    Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Powers, Joseph

    2005-01-01

    Both old and new information on the biology and ecology of Atlantic bluefin tuna have confronted scientists with research challenges: research needs to be connected to current stock-assessment and management issues. We review recent studies on habitat, migrations and population structure, stressing the importance of electronic tagging results in the modification of our perception of bluefin tuna population dynamics and behaviour. Additionally, we question, from both scientific and management ...

  4. Workshop on Populations & Crowds: Dynamics, Disruptions and their Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    behavior and, ultimately, what can be done to block contagion of hostile behavior in both population and crowd contexts. The workshop was organized at the...powerful in their ability to spread information and rapidly alter their collective behavior . Crowds can transition from loosely to tightly organized and...7 September, 2012 concentrating on organization , dynamics and disruption of populations and crowds. The purpose of this workshop was to bring

  5. The population dynamical consequences of density-dependent prophylaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Jennifer J H; White, Andrew; Sherratt, Jonathan A; Boots, Mike

    2011-11-07

    When infectious disease transmission is density-dependent, the risk of infection will tend to increase with host population density. Since host defence mechanisms can be costly, individual hosts may benefit from increasing their investment in immunity in response to increasing population density. Such "density-dependent prophylaxis" (DDP) has now indeed been demonstrated experimentally in several species. However, it remains unclear how DDP will affect the population dynamics of the host-pathogen interaction, with previous theoretical work making conflicting predictions. We develop a general host-pathogen model and assess the role of DDP on the population dynamics. The ability of DDP to drive population cycles is critically dependent on the time delay between the change in density and the subsequent phenotypic change in the level of resistance. When the delay is absent or short, DDP destabilises the system. As the delay increases, its destabilising effect first diminishes and then DDP becomes increasingly stabilising. Our work highlights the significance of the time delay and suggests that it must be estimated experimentally or varied in theoretical investigations in order to understand the implications of DDP for the population dynamics of particular systems.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  7. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  8. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard; Topping, Christopher John

    2011-01-01

    on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation...... to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered...

  9. How Predation and Landscape Fragmentation Affect Vole Population Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard M.; Topping, Chris J.

    2011-01-01

    on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation...... to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered...

  10. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure.

  11. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  12. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  13. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  14. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

  15. Equilibrium solutions for microscopic stochastic systems in population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachowicz, Mirosław; Ryabukha, Tatiana

    2013-06-01

    The present paper deals with the problem of existence of equilibrium solutions of equations describing the general population dynamics at the microscopic level of modified Liouville equation (individually--based model) corresponding to a Markov jump process. We show the existence of factorized equilibrium solutions and discuss uniqueness. The conditions guaranteeing uniqueness or non-uniqueness are proposed under the assumption of periodic structures.

  16. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    and slash and burn fields, cropping systems (mono- and inter-crop) had little effect on the population dynamics of M. natalensis [F(1,8) = 6.50; P > 0.05]. The study shows that land preparation methods should be considered a component of rodent pest management in ecologically based or integrated management...

  17. Binary populations and stellar dynamics in young clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Vanbeveren, D; Van Bever, J; Mennekens, N

    2008-01-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, Eta Carinae, Zeta Puppis, Gamma Velorum and WR 140.

  18. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over such microhabitats,

  19. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  20. Stochastic simulation of HIV population dynamics through complex network modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloot, P.M.A.; Ivanov, S.V.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.; van de Vijver, D.A.M.C.; Boucher, C.A.B.

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new way to model HIV infection spreading through the use of dynamic complex networks. The heterogeneous population of HIV exposure groups is described through a unique network degree probability distribution. The time evolution of the network nodes is modelled by a Markov process and

  1. Stochastic simulation of HIV population dynamics through complex network modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloot, P. M. A.; Ivanov, S. V.; Boukhanovsky, A. V.; van de Vijver, D. A. M. C.; Boucher, C. A. B.

    We propose a new way to model HIV infection spreading through the use of dynamic complex networks. The heterogeneous population of HIV exposure groups is described through a unique network degree probability distribution. The time evolution of the network nodes is modelled by a Markov process and

  2. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

  3. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient cause

  4. Population Receptive Field Dynamics in Human Visual Cortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haak, Koen V.; Cornelissen, Frans W.; Morland, Antony B.

    2012-01-01

    Seminal work in the early nineties revealed that the visual receptive field of neurons in cat primary visual cortex can change in location and size when artificial scotomas are applied. Recent work now suggests that these single neuron receptive field dynamics also pertain to the neuronal population

  5. Neuronal population dynamic model:An analytic approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wentao Huang; Licheng Jiao; Yuelei Xu; Shiping Ma; Jianhua Jia

    2009-01-01

    rom this,the stationary solution and the firing rate of the stationary states are given.Last,by the Fourier transform,the time dependent solution is also obtained.This method can be used to analyze the various dynamic behaviors of neuronal populations.

  6. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bradde, Serena; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a "winner-take-all" scenario, leading to a specialized spacer ...

  7. Population dynamics and mutualism: Functional responses of benefits and costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bronstein, Judith L.

    2002-01-01

    We develop an approach for studying population dynamics resulting from mutualism by employing functional responses based on density‐dependent benefits and costs. These functional responses express how the population growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner. We present several possible dependencies of gross benefits and costs, and hence net effects, to a mutualist as functions of the density of its partner. Net effects to mutualists are likely a monotonically saturating or unimodal function of the density of their partner. We show that fundamental differences in the growth, limitation, and dynamics of a population can occur when net effects to that population change linearly, unimodally, or in a saturating fashion. We use the mutualism between senita cactus and its pollinating seed‐eating moth as an example to show the influence of different benefit and cost functional responses on population dynamics and stability of mutualisms. We investigated two mechanisms that may alter this mutualism's functional responses: distribution of eggs among flowers and fruit abortion. Differences in how benefits and costs vary with density can alter the stability of this mutualism. In particular, fruit abortion may allow for a stable equilibrium where none could otherwise exist.

  8. Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: A review

    CERN Document Server

    Perc, Matjaz; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M; Moreno, Yamir; 10.1098/rsif.2012.0997

    2013-01-01

    Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and nonliving matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proven valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection, and self-organisation in evolutionary games. Here we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory...

  9. Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Xu Zhou

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

  10. Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew P; Homer, Jack B; Murphy, Dara L; Essien, Joyce D K; Milstein, Bobby; Seville, Donald A

    2006-03-01

    Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050. The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

  11. Within- and among-population variation in vital rates and population dynamics in a variable environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Jesensˇek, Dusˇan; Garza, John C; Crivelli, Alain J

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within- and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart shared and individual contribution to the observed variation. We used long-term tag-recapture data to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus, an endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and extreme events. We found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on vital rates. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities (>55% decrease in survival with respect to years with no floods) and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast

  12. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    Spatial distributions of structured populations are usually estimated by fitting abundance surfaces for each stage and at each point of time separately, ignoring correlations that emerge from growth of individuals. Here, we present a statistical model that combines spatio-temporal correlations...... with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  13. Past and present population dynamics of narwhals Monodon monoceros

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Eva

    , meat and mattak. Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of the hunt, which have led to implementation of hunting quotas in both countries. Hunting quotas are usually calculated from population dynamics models where survival and reproductive rates, based on reliable age distributions......, are vital. Estimation of life history parameters for the narwhal has previously been hindered by lack of a reliable age estimation technique. The Aspartic Acid Racemization (AAR) technique is a relatively novel method that I have applied to narwhals. This PhD thesis focuses, in part, on current population...... of both marine and terrestrial mammals, although the technique still requires both optimization and further validation. In addition, the thesis includes a study of past population dynamics in narwhals. We have investigated the genetic response to climate change and the emographic history of the narwhal...

  14. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities.

  15. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  16. The population dynamics of an endemic collectible cactus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandujano, María C.; Bravo, Yolotzin; Verhulst, Johannes; Carrillo-Angeles, Israel; Golubov, Jordan

    2015-02-01

    Astrophytum is one of most collected genera in the cactus family. Around the world several species are maintained in collections and yearly, several plants are taken from their natural habitats. Populations of Astorphytum capricorne are found in the northern Chihuahuan desert, Mexico, and as many endemic cactus species, it has a highly restricted habitat. We conducted a demographic study from 2008 to 2010 of the northern populations found at Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. We applied matrix population models, included simulations, life table response experiments and descriptions of the population dynamics to evaluate the current status of the species, and detect key life table stages and demographic processes. Population growth rate decreased in both years and only 4% individual mortality can be attributed to looting, and a massive effort is needed to increase seedling recruitment and reduce adult mortality. The fate of individuals differed between years even having the same annual rainfall mainly in accentuated stasis, retrogression and high mortality in all size classes, which coupled with low seed production, no recruitment and collection of plants are the causes contributing to population decline, and hence, increase the risk in which A. capricorne populations are found. Reintroduction of seedlings and lowering adult mortality are urgently needed to revert the alarming demographic condition of A. capricorne populations.

  17. Population dynamics in Er3+-doped fluoride glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdanov, V. K.; Booth, D. J.; Gibbs, W. E.; Javorniczky, J. S.; Newman, P. J.; Macfarlane, D. R.

    2001-05-01

    A detailed study of the energy-transfer processes in Er3+: flouride glasses with doping concentrations of 0.2-18 mol % is presented. Fluorescence wave forms for 11 erbium transitions were measured under 802-nm, 1.5-μm, 975-nm, 520-nm, and 403-nm excitation from a high-energy short-pulse source. The analysis of these data provided a physical understanding of the processes responsible for the temporal behavior of the populations of a large number of energy levels. A comprehensive nine-level rate-equation model of the Er3+ population dynamics in these fluoride glasses is developed. The model performs well in predicting the observed fluorescence behavior of the main fluorescing lines under all pumping conditions. The modeling process allowed 14 ion-ion energy-transfer processes that are important for the population dynamics in these fluoride glasses to be identified and their rate constants obtained. Noticeably, the inclusion of seven three-ion processes was found necessary in order to obtain good fits to the experimental fluorescence wave forms. It was also found that some three-ion processes have a significant effect on the population dynamics of the levels even in lower doping concentrations.

  18. Changes in population dynamics in mutualistic versus pathogenic viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roossinck, Marilyn J

    2011-01-01

    Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis) have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  19. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  20. Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

    2006-01-01

    Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain

  1. Optimal control methods for controlling bacterial populations with persister dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cogan, N. G.

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial tolerance to antibiotics is a well-known phenomena; however, only recent studies of bacterial biofilms have shown how multifaceted tolerance really is. By joining into a structured community and offering shared protection and gene transfer, bacterial populations can protect themselves genotypically, phenotypically and physically. In this study, we collect a line of research that focuses on phenotypic (or plastic) tolerance. The dynamics of persister formation are becoming better understood, even though there are major questions that remain. The thrust of our results indicate that even without detailed description of the biological mechanisms, theoretical studies can offer strategies that can eradicate bacterial populations with existing drugs.

  2. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  3. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  4. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  5. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  6. Nonlinear modeling of neural population dynamics for hippocampal prostheses

    OpenAIRE

    Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H.M.; Vasilis Z Marmarelis; Hampson, Robert E.; Deadwyler, Sam A.; Berger, Theodore W.

    2009-01-01

    Developing a neural prosthesis for the damaged hippocampus requires restoring the transformation of population neural activities performed by the hippocampal circuitry. To bypass a damaged region, output spike trains need to be predicted from the input spike trains and then reinstated through stimulation. We formulate a multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) nonlinear dynamic model for the input–output transformation of spike trains. In this approach, a MIMO model comprises a series of physio...

  7. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

    2016-08-01

    Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems.

  8. Combined effect of successive competition periods on population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Anazawa, Masahiro

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of competition between individuals on population dynamics when they compete for different resources during different seasons or during different growth stages. Individuals are assumed to compete for a single resource during each of these periods according to one of the following competition types: scramble, contest, or an intermediate between the two. The effect of two successive competition periods is determined to be expressed by simple relations on produc...

  9. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  10. Trends and population dynamics of a Velvet Scoter (Melanitta fusca) population: influence of density dependence and winter climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, G.; Kölzsch, A.; Larsson, K.; Nordberg, M.; Höglund, J.

    2013-01-01

    As many seaduck populations around the world have been reported to be in decline, there is an increasing demand for knowledge about intrinsic and extrinsic factors determining population dynamics of these species. In this study, we analyzed long-term dynamics of the summer population of Velvet Scote

  11. Network Evolution Induced by the Dynamical Rules of Two Populations

    CERN Document Server

    Platini, T

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely; extrovert ($a$) and introvert ($b$). In our model, each group is characterized by its size ($N_a$ and $N_b$) and preferred degree ($\\kappa_a$ and $\\kappa_b\\ll\\kappa_a$). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees $\\moyenne{k_{bb}}$ and $\\moyenne{k_{ab}}$ presents three time regimes and a non monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population size are equal $N_a=N_b$, the ratio of the restricted degree $\\theta_0=\\moyenne{k_{ab}}/\\moyenne{k_{bb}}$ appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by $t

  12. IMF shape constraints from stellar populations and dynamics from CALIFA

    CERN Document Server

    Lyubenova, M; van de Ven, G; Falcón-Barroso, J; Galbany, L; Gallazzi, A; García-Benito, R; Delgado, R González; Husemann, B; La Barbera, F; Marino, R A; Mast, D; Mendez-Abreu, J; Peletier, R F P; Sánchez-Blázquez, P; Sánchez, S F; Trager, S C; Bosch, R C E van den; Vazdekis, A; Walcher, C J; Zhu, L; Zibetti, S; Ziegler, B; Bland-Hawthorn, J

    2016-01-01

    In this letter we describe how we use stellar dynamics information to constrain the shape of the stellar IMF in a sample of 27 early-type galaxies from the CALIFA survey. We obtain dynamical and stellar mass-to-light ratios, $\\Upsilon_\\mathrm{dyn}$ and $\\Upsilon_{\\ast}$, over a homogenous aperture of 0.5~$R_{e}$. We use the constraint $\\Upsilon_\\mathrm{dyn} \\ge \\Upsilon_{\\ast}$ to test two IMF shapes within the framework of the extended MILES stellar population models. We rule out a single power law IMF shape for 75% of the galaxies in our sample. Conversely, we find that a double power law IMF shape with a varying high-mass end slope is compatible (within 1$\\sigma$) with 95% of the galaxies. We also show that dynamical and stellar IMF mismatch factors give consistent results for the systematic variation of the IMF in these galaxies.

  13. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  14. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  15. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar population parameters

    CERN Document Server

    McDermid, Richard M; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frederic; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F; Davies, Roger L; Davis, Timothy A; de Zeeuw, P T; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnovic, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M

    2014-01-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the Atlas3D project. We study trends between our dynamically-derived IMF normalisation and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population- (SSP-) equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [alpha/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalisation of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of normalisation at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak IMF-[alpha/Fe] and IMF-age correlations, and no significant IMF-[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalisation via low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectra...

  16. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

  17. Physiologically structured populations with diffusion and dynamic boundary conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, József Z; Hinow, Peter

    2011-04-01

    We consider a linear size-structured population model with diffusion in the size-space. Individuals are recruited into the population at arbitrary sizes. We equip the model with generalized Wentzell-Robin (or dynamic) boundary conditions. This approach allows the modelling of populations in which individuals may have distinguished physiological states. We establish existence and positivity of solutions by showing that solutions are governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup of linear operators on the biologically relevant state space. These results are obtained by establishing dissipativity of a suitably perturbed semigroup generator. We also show that solutions of the model exhibit balanced exponential growth, that is, our model admits a finite-dimensional global attractor. In case of strictly positive fertility we are able to establish that solutions in fact exhibit asynchronous exponential growth.

  18. Pattern formation and coexistence domains for a nonlocal population dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    da Cunha, J A R; Oliveira, F A

    2011-01-01

    In this communication we propose a most general equation to study pattern formation for one-species population and their limit domains in systems of length L. To accomplish this we include non-locality in the growth and competition terms where the integral kernels are now depend on characteristic length parameters alpha and beta. Therefore, we derived a parameter space (alpha,beta) where it is possible to analyze a coexistence curve alpha*=alpha*(\\beta) which delimits domains for the existence (or not) of pattern formation in population dynamics systems. We show that this curve has an analogy with coexistence curve in classical thermodynamics and critical phenomena physics. We have successfully compared this model with experimental data for diffusion of Escherichia coli populations.

  19. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... was not jeopardized even when disturbances were simulated to have a relatively large and persistent effect on the behavior of individual animals. Porpoises were simulated to move away from noisy objects, preventing them from returning to the known food patches in that area. This resulted in decreasing energy reserves...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...

  20. Connection between dynamically derived IMF normalisation and stellar populations

    CERN Document Server

    McDermid, Richard M

    2015-01-01

    In this contributed talk I present recent results on the connection between stellar population properties and the normalisation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) measured using stellar dynamics, based on a large sample of 260 early-type galaxies observed as part of the Atlas3D project. This measure of the IMF normalisation is found to vary non-uniformly with age- and metallicity-sensitive absorption line strengths. Applying single stellar population models, there are weak but measurable trends of the IMF with age and abundance ratio. Accounting for the dependence of stellar population parameters on velocity dispersion effectively removes these trends, but subsequently introduces a trend with metallicity, such that `heavy' IMFs favour lower metallicities. The correlations are weaker than those found from previous studies directly detecting low-mass stars, suggesting some degree of tension between the different approaches of measuring the IMF. Resolving these discrepancies will be the focus of future w...

  1. Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

    2017-03-01

    Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

  2. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  3. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayank N Vahia

    Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  4. Stationary Stability for Evolutionary Dynamics in Finite Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Harper

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate a vast expansion of the theory of evolutionary stability to finite populations with mutation, connecting the theory of the stationary distribution of the Moran process with the Lyapunov theory of evolutionary stability. We define the notion of stationary stability for the Moran process with mutation and generalizations, as well as a generalized notion of evolutionary stability that includes mutation called an incentive stable state (ISS candidate. For sufficiently large populations, extrema of the stationary distribution are ISS candidates and we give a family of Lyapunov quantities that are locally minimized at the stationary extrema and at ISS candidates. In various examples, including for the Moran and Wright–Fisher processes, we show that the local maxima of the stationary distribution capture the traditionally-defined evolutionarily stable states. The classical stability theory of the replicator dynamic is recovered in the large population limit. Finally we include descriptions of possible extensions to populations of variable size and populations evolving on graphs.

  5. Dynamic distributions and population declines of Golden-winged Warblers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Will, Tom; Buehler, David A.; Barker Swarthout, Sara; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Chandler, Richard

    2016-01-01

    With an estimated breeding population in 2010 of 383,000 pairs, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is among the most vulnerable and steeply declining of North American passerines. This species also has exhibited among the most dynamic breeding distributions, with populations expanding and then contracting over the past 150 years in response to regional habitat changes, interactions with closely related Blue-winged Warblers (V. cyanoptera), and possibly climate change. Since 1966, the rangewide population has declined by >70% (-2.3% per year; latest North American Breeding Bird Survey data), with much steeper declines in the Appalachian Mountains bird conservation region (-8.3% per year, 98% overall decline). Despite apparently stable or increasing populations in the northwestern part of the range (Minnesota, Manitoba), population estimates for Golden-winged Warbler have continued to decline by 18% from the decade of the 1990s to the 2000s. Population modeling predicts a further decline to roughly 37,000 individuals by 2100, with the species likely to persist only in Manitoba, Minnesota, and possibly Ontario. To delineate the present-day distribution and to identify population concentrations that could serve as conservation focus areas, we compiled rangewide survey data collected in 2000-2006 in 21 states and 3 Canadian provinces, as part of the Golden-winged Warbler Atlas Project (GOWAP), supplemented by state and provincial Breeding Bird Atlas data and more recent observations in eBird. Based on >8,000 GOWAP surveys for Golden-winged and Blue-winged warblers and their hybrids, we mapped occurrence of phenotypically pure and mixed populations in a roughly 0.5-degree grid across the species’ ranges. Hybrids and mixed Golden-winged-Blue-winged populations occurred in a relatively narrow zone across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, southern Ontario, and northern New York. Phenotypically pure Golden-winged Warbler populations occurred north of this

  6. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2017-08-07

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  7. Population Dynamics of the Giant Clam, Tridacna maxima, at Rose Atoll

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — There is a paucity of knowledge on the population dynamics of the giant clams of the family Tridacnidae. Such information on population dynamics is necessary for...

  8. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  9. Particle tagging and its implications for stellar population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bret, Theo; Pontzen, Andrew; Cooper, Andrew P.; Frenk, Carlos; Zolotov, Adi; Brooks, Alyson M.; Governato, Fabio; Parry, Owen H.

    2017-07-01

    We establish a controlled comparison between the properties of galactic stellar haloes obtained with hydrodynamical simulations and with 'particle tagging'. Tagging is a fast way to obtain stellar population dynamics: instead of tracking gas and star formation, it 'paints' stars directly on to a suitably defined subset of dark matter particles in a collisionless, dark-matter-only simulation. Our study shows that 'live' particle tagging schemes, where stellar masses are painted on to the dark matter particles dynamically throughout the simulation, can generate good fits to the hydrodynamical stellar density profiles of a central Milky Way-like galaxy and its most prominent substructure. Energy diffusion processes are crucial to reshaping the distribution of stars in infalling spheroidal systems and hence the final stellar halo. We conclude that the success of any particular tagging scheme hinges on this diffusion being taken into account, and discuss the role of different subgrid feedback prescriptions in driving this diffusion.

  10. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  11. Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

    2016-02-01

    In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

  12. Knowledge epidemics and population dynamics models for describing idea diffusion

    CERN Document Server

    Vitanov, Nikolay K

    2012-01-01

    The diffusion of ideas is often closely connected to the creation and diffusion of knowledge and to the technological evolution of society. Because of this, knowledge creation, exchange and its subsequent transformation into innovations for improved welfare and economic growth is briefly described from a historical point of view. Next, three approaches are discussed for modeling the diffusion of ideas in the areas of science and technology, through (i) deterministic, (ii) stochastic, and (iii) statistical approaches. These are illustrated through their corresponding population dynamics and epidemic models relative to the spreading of ideas, knowledge and innovations. The deterministic dynamical models are considered to be appropriate for analyzing the evolution of large and small societal, scientific and technological systems when the influence of fluctuations is insignificant. Stochastic models are appropriate when the system of interest is small but when the fluctuations become significant for its evolution...

  13. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (FST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (HE  = 0.583 in KM and HE  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (IAS >0.5 [Pdiversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

  14. Applications of Perron-Frobenius theory to population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chi-Kwong; Schneider, Hans

    2002-05-01

    By the use of Perron-Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result, which is closely related to the Stein-Rosenberg theorem in numerical linear algebra, is further refined with some additional nonnegative matrix theory. When the fertility matrix is scaled by the net reproductive rate, the growth rate of the model is $1$. More generally, we show how to achieve a given growth rate for the model by scaling the fertility matrix. Demographic interpretations of the results are given.

  15. Mechanical reaction-diffusion model for bacterial population dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2015-01-01

    The effect of mechanical interaction between cells on the spreading of bacterial population was investigated in one-dimensional space. A nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation has been formulated as a model for this dynamics. In this model, the bacterial cells are treated as the rod-like particles that interact, when contacting each other, through the hard-core repulsion. The repulsion introduces the exclusion process that causes the fast diffusion in bacterial population at high density. The propagation of the bacterial density as the traveling wave front in long time behavior has been analyzed. The analytical result reveals that the front speed is enhanced by the exclusion process---and its value depends on the packing fraction of cell. The numerical solutions of the model have been solved to confirm this prediction.

  16. pedagog: software for simulating eco-evolutionary population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, Jason A; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

    2010-05-01

    pedagog is a Windows program that can be used to determine power for, and validate inferences drawn from, eco-evolutionary studies. It models dynamics of multiple populations and their interactions through individual-based simulations while simultaneously recording genotype, pedigree and trait information at the individual level. pedagog also allows for specification of heritable traits, natural and sexual selection acting upon those traits, population sampling schemes and incorporation of genetic and demographic errors into the output. Overall, parameters can be specified for genetic diversity, demographics, mating design, genetic and demographic errors, individual growth models, trait heritability and selection, and output formatting. Demographic parameters can be either age or function based, and all parameters can be drawn from 12 statistical distributions where appropriate. Simulation results can be automatically formatted for 57 existing software programs to facilitate postsimulation analyses. pedagog is freely available for download at https://bcrc.bio.umass.edu/pedigreesoftware/.

  17. Spatial and temporal dynamics of infected populations: the Mexican epidemic

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez-Meza, Mario A

    2012-01-01

    Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a successful description of some epidemics of closed populations. We consider the data for the Mexican case and use the SIR model to make some predictions. Then, we generalize the SIR model in order to describe the spatial dynamics of the disease. We make a study of the spatial and temporal spread of the infected population with model parameters that are consistent with temporal SIR model parameters obtained by fitting to the Mexican case.

  18. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  19. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  20. Dynamical population synthesis: Constructing the stellar single and binary contents of galactic field populations

    CERN Document Server

    Marks, Michael

    2011-01-01

    [abridged] The galactic field's late-type stellar single and binary population is calculated on the supposition that all stars form as binaries in embedded star clusters. A recently developed tool (Marks, Kroupa & Oh) is used to evolve the binary star distributions in star clusters for a few Myr so that a particular mixture of single and binary stars is achieved. On cluster dissolution the population enters the galactic field with these characteristics. The different contributions of single stars and binaries from individual star clusters which are selected from a power-law embedded star cluster mass function are then added up. This gives rise to integrated galactic field binary distribution functions (IGBDFs) resembling a galactic field's stellar content (Dynamical Population Synthesis). It is found that the binary proportion in the galactic field of a galaxy is larger the lower the minimum cluster mass, the lower the star formation rate, the steeper the embedded star cluster mass function and the larger...

  1. Population Dynamics in the Capitalist World-Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Danna

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intentionality in reproduction in pre-capitalist societies. It assumes a model of "demographic transition" from a state of "natural fertility" to a state of conscious family planning, while also treating mortality as independent of fertility Marxism recognized the importance of population as a source of labor for profit and capital accumulation. With its tools Sydney Coontz developed a demand for labor theory explaining in particular the decrease in the birth rate in England and the United States at the turn of the century This theory was f urther developed by anthropologists of the "mode of product ion and population pat terns " who, with other authors, offer useful theories and insights to advance world-historical research on population. This article explores connections between population dy namics and world-systems analysis. I explore six key questions at different levels of analysis, including: 1 Are there world-systems ' imperatives concerning human reproduction?; 2 Do human reproduction imperatives differ across world-systems.'?; 3 How do the (eventual systems requirements get transmitted to households and individuals'?; 4 Why do people have children.'?; 5 Who is the subject of procreation decisions'?; and 6 How is the number of offspring chosen? Finally, I offer guidelines for applying the six questions to the capitalist world-economy.

  2. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  3. Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca S Rudicell

    Full Text Available Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1, simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela and non-habituated (Kalande chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande, while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7% and Kasekela (12.1%. To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz

  4. Comparative dynamics and life histories of coexisting dragonfly populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benke, A.C.; Benke, S.S.

    Several species of coexisting dragonfly larvae were studied for four consecutive years in a 1-ha old farm pond. Larval development, emergence patterns, and adult flight patterns showed that the most abundant species were univoltine and developed relatively synchronously (i.e., like a cohort). Three of the common species emerged in early spring, and the others emerged later in the summer. The common genera with the most similar microhabitat had a distinct temporal separation that may serve in reducing interspecific competition. However, coexisting congeneric species had almost identical life histories, supporting the hypothesis that ecological homologues can coexist because of ''errors of exploitation'' of the dominant species. The larval population dynamics of each dominant species (Ladona deplanata, Epitheca spp., and Celithemis fasciata) was characterized by a constant percentage numerical decline, coupled with with a dramatic biomass increase from time of hatching to final instar. Larval mortality during this period averaged 92 percent per annum, but population biomass increased at least tenfold during the same period for each species. Comparison of larval estimates with emergence data revealed that at least 80 percent of the final instars die just before leaving the water to emerge. Life history variations among species smoothed out composite density and biomass trends which averaged about 1,000 individuals/m/sup 2/ and 2 g dry wt/m/sup 2/, respectively. In general, population dynamics from year to year were quite consistent, indicating a relatively high degree of stability in terms of species composition and densities. (auth)

  5. Neural Population Dynamics Modeled by Mean-Field Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozma, Robert; Puljic, Marko

    2011-09-01

    In this work we apply random graph theory approach to describe neural population dynamics. There are important advantages of using random graph theory approach in addition to ordinary and partial differential equations. The mathematical theory of large-scale random graphs provides an efficient tool to describe transitions between high- and low-dimensional spaces. Recent advances in studying neural correlates of higher cognition indicate the significance of sudden changes in space-time neurodynamics, which can be efficiently described as phase transitions in the neuropil medium. Phase transitions are rigorously defined mathematically on random graph sequences and they can be naturally generalized to a class of percolation processes called neuropercolation. In this work we employ mean-field graphs with given vertex degree distribution and edge strength distribution. We demonstrate the emergence of collective oscillations in the style of brains.

  6. Particle tagging and its implications for stellar population dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bret, Theo Le; Cooper, Andrew P; Frenk, Carlos; Zolotov, Adi; Brooks, Alyson M; Governato, Fabio; Parry, Owen H

    2015-01-01

    We establish a controlled comparison between the properties of galactic stellar halos obtained with hydrodynamical simulations and with `particle tagging'. Tagging is a fast way to obtain stellar population dynamics: instead of tracking gas and star formation, it `paints' stars directly onto a suitably defined subset of dark matter particles in a collisionless, dark-matter-only simulation.Our study shows that there are conditions under which particle tagging generates good fits to the hydrodynamical stellar density profiles of a central Milky-Way-like galaxy and its most prominent substructure. Phase-space diffusion processes are crucial to reshaping the distribution of stars in infalling spheroidal systems and hence the final stellar halo. We conclude that the success of any particular tagging scheme hinges on this diffusion being taken into account, at a minimum by making use of `live' tagging schemes, in which particles are regularly tagged throughout the evolution of a galaxy.

  7. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-12-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  8. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard McElreath

    Full Text Available Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005, and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.

  9. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.

  10. Sensory dynamics of visual hallucinations in the normal population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Joel; Chiou, Rocco; Rogers, Sebastian; Wicken, Marcus; Heitmann, Stewart; Ermentrout, Bard

    2016-01-01

    Hallucinations occur in both normal and clinical populations. Due to their unpredictability and complexity, the mechanisms underlying hallucinations remain largely untested. Here we show that visual hallucinations can be induced in the normal population by visual flicker, limited to an annulus that constricts content complexity to simple moving grey blobs, allowing objective mechanistic investigation. Hallucination strength peaked at ~11 Hz flicker and was dependent on cortical processing. Hallucinated motion speed increased with flicker rate, when mapped onto visual cortex it was independent of eccentricity, underwent local sensory adaptation and showed the same bistable and mnemonic dynamics as sensory perception. A neural field model with motion selectivity provides a mechanism for both hallucinations and perception. Our results demonstrate that hallucinations can be studied objectively, and they share multiple mechanisms with sensory perception. We anticipate that this assay will be critical to test theories of human consciousness and clinical models of hallucination. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17072.001 PMID:27726845

  11. Dynamic equilibrium of reconstituting hematopoietic stem cell populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Quigley, John

    2010-12-01

    Clonal dominance in hematopoietic stem cell populations is an important question of interest but not one we can directly answer. Any estimates are based on indirect measurement. For marked populations, we can equate empirical and theoretical moments for binomial sampling, in particular we can use the well-known formula for the sampling variation of a binomial proportion. The empirical variance itself cannot always be reliably estimated and some caution is needed. We describe the difficulties here and identify ready solutions which only require appropriate use of variance-stabilizing transformations. From these we obtain estimators for the steady state, or dynamic equilibrium, of the number of hematopoietic stem cells involved in repopulating the marrow. The calculations themselves are not too involved. We give the distribution theory for the estimator as well as simple approximations for practical application. As an illustration, we rework on data recently gathered to address the question as to whether or not reconstitution of marrow grafts in the clinical setting might be considered to be oligoclonal.

  12. Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

    CERN Document Server

    Marcos, C de la Fuente

    2016-01-01

    Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and C...

  13. Far from random: dynamical groupings among the NEO population

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente Marcos, C.; de la Fuente Marcos, R.

    2016-03-01

    Among the near-Earth object (NEO) population, there are comets and active asteroids which are sources of fragments that initially move together; in addition, some NEOs follow orbits temporarily trapped in a web of secular resonances. These facts contribute to increasing the risk of meteoroid strikes on Earth, making its proper quantification difficult. The identification and subsequent study of groups of small NEOs that appear to move in similar trajectories are necessary steps in improving our understanding of the impact risk associated with meteoroids. Here, we present results of a search for statistically significant dynamical groupings among the NEO population. Our Monte Carlo-based methodology recovers well-documented groupings like the Taurid Complex or the one resulting from the split comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, and new ones that may have been the source of past impacts. Among the most conspicuous are the Mjolnir and Ptah groups, perhaps the source of recent impact events like Almahata Sitta and Chelyabinsk, respectively. Meteoroid 2014 AA, that hit the Earth on 2014 January 2, could have its origin in a marginally significant grouping associated with Bennu. We find that most of the substructure present within the orbital domain of the NEOs is of resonant nature, probably induced by secular resonances and the Kozai mechanism that confine these objects into specific paths with well-defined perihelia.

  14. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP are recovering from population declines, the Northern Alaska Peninsula Herd (NAP appears to be nearing the end of a protracted decline, and the Mulchatna Herd (MCH appears to now be declining after 20 years of rapid growth. The remaining naturally occurring herd (Kilbuck has virtually disappeared. Nutrition had a significant effect on the size of 4-month-old and 10-month-old calves in the NAP and the Nushagak Peninsula Herd (NPCH and probably also on population growth in at least 4 (SAP, NAP, NPCH, and MCH of the six caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Predation does not appear to be sufficient to keep caribou herds in southwestern Alaska from expanding, probably because rabies is endemic in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes and is periodically transferred to wolves (Canis lupus and other canids. However, we found evidence that pneumonia and hoof rot may result in significant mortality of caribou in southwestern Alaska, whereas there is no evidence that disease is important in the dynamics of Interior herds. Cooperative conservation programs, such as the Kilbuck Caribou Management Plan, can be successful in restraining traditional harvest and promoting growth in caribou herds. In southwestern Alaska we also found evidence that small caribou herds can be swamped and assimilated by large herds, and fidelity to traditional calving areas can be lost.

  15. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luuk J G W van Wilderen

    Full Text Available Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio- physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox that describes the finite bleach (orientation effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective excitation (photoselection and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical

  16. Cryptic population dynamics: rapid evolution masks trophic interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takehito Yoshida

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution.

  17. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    influence diagrams to capture the stochastic, temporal processes of managing cheetah population in Kenya. The model predicts likely anagement decisions made by various actors within these countries, (e.g., the President, the Environmental Protection Agency, and rural residents and the resulting probability of cheetah extinction following these decisions. By approaching the problem in both its political and ecological contexts one avoids consideration of decisions that, while beneficial from a purely conservation point of view, are unlikely to be implemented because of conflicting political objectives. Haas’s analysis demonstrates both the promise and challenges of this type of modeling, and he offers suggestions for overcoming inherent technical difficulties such as model calibration. The second paper, by Simon Hoyle and Mark Maunder (Hoyle & Maunder, 2004, uses a Bayesian approach to model population dynamics and the effects of commercial fishing bycatch for the eastern Pacific Ocean spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata. Their paper provides a good example of why Bayesian analysis is particularly suited to many management problems. Namely, because it allows the integration of disparate pieces of monitoring data in the simultaneous estimation of population parameters; allows forincorporation of expert judgment and data from other systems and species; and provides for explicit consideration of uncertainty in decision–making. Alternative management scenarios can then be explored via forward simulations. In the third paper, Chris Fonnesbeck and Mike Conroy (Fonnesbeck & Conroy, 2004 present an integrated approach for estimating parameters and predicting abundance of American black duck (Anas rubripes populations. They also employ a ayesian approach and overcome some of the computational challenges by using Markov chain–Monte Carlo methods. Ring–recovery and harvest data are used to estimate fall age ratios under alternative reproductive models. These in turn are used to

  18. ACTIVITY - BASED COSTING DESIGNING

    OpenAIRE

    Wioletta Skibiñska; Marta Kad³ubek

    2010-01-01

    The traditional costing system sometimes does not give accurate information about the consumption of different resources and the activities of the organisation. The activity-based costing system is an information-rich costing system which is more and more necessary for the success of many European companies. Base of designing and implementation of an ABC system in the enterprises are presented in the article.

  19. Population dynamics of Borrelia burgdorferi in Lyme disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Christoph Binder

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Many chronic inflammatory diseases are known to be caused by persistent bacterial or viral infections. A well-studied example is the tick-borne infection by the gram-negative Spirochaetes of the genus Borrelia in humans and other mammals, causing severe symptoms of chronic inflammation and subsequent tissue damage (Lyme Disease, particularly in large joints and the central nervous system, but also in the heart and other tissues of untreated patients. Although killed efficiently by human phagocytic cells in vitro, Borrelia exhibits a remarkably high infectivity in mice and men. In experimentally infected mice, the first immune response almost clears the infection. However, approximately one week post infection, the bacterial population recovers and reaches an even larger size before entering the chronic phase. We developed a mathematical model describing the bacterial growth and the immune response against Borrelia burgdorferi in the C3H mouse strain that has been established as an experimental model for Lyme disease. The peculiar dynamics of the infection exclude two possible mechanistic explanations for the regrowth of the almost cleared bacteria. Neither the hypothesis of bacterial dissemination to different tissue nor a limitation of phagocytic capacity were compatible with experiment. The mathematical model predicts that Borrelia recovers from the strong initial immune response by the regrowth of an immune-resistant sub-population of the bacteria. The chronic phase appears as an equilibration of bacterial growth and adaptive immunity. This result has major implications for the development of the chronic phase of Borrelia infections as well as on potential protective clinical interventions.

  20. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF AMBIENT AND ALTERED EARTHWORM COMMUNITIES IN ROW-CROP AGROECOSYSTEMS IN OHIO, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although earthworms are known to influence agroecosystem processes, there are relatively few long-term studies addressing population dynamics under cropping systems in which earthworm populations were intentionally altered. We assessed earthworm communities from fall 1994 to spr...

  1. Density dependence and population dynamics of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya's rhino sanctuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouma, B.O.; Amin, R.; Langevelde, van F.; Leader-Williams, N.

    2010-01-01

    Density-dependent feedback mechanisms provide insights into the population dynamics and interactions of large herbivores with their ecosystem. Sex ratio also has particularly important implications for growth rates of many large mammal populations through its influence on reproductive potential.

  2. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

  3. Intertidal population genetic dynamics at a microgeographic seascape scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zi-Min

    2013-06-01

    The intertidal community is among the most physically harsh niches on earth, with highly heterogeneous environmental and biological factors that impose strong habitat selection on population abundance, genetic connectivity and ecological adaptation of organisms in nature. However, most genetic studies to date have concentrated on the influence of basin-wide or regional marine environments (e.g. habitat discontinuities, oceanic currents and fronts, and geographic barriers) on spatiotemporal distribution and composition of intertidal invertebrates having planktonic stages or long-distance dispersal capability. Little is known about sessile marine organisms (e.g. seaweeds) in the context of topographic tidal gradients and reproductive traits at the microgeographic scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Krueger-Hadfield et al. () implemented an elaborate sampling strategy with red seaweed (Chondrus crispus) from a 90-m transect stand near Roscoff and comprehensively detected genome-scale genetic differentiation and biases in ploidy level. This study not only revealed that tidal height resulted in genetic differentiation between high- and low-shore stands and restricted the genetic exchange within the high-shore habitat, but also demonstrated that intergametophytic nonrandom fertilization in C. crispus can cause significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Such new genetic insights highlight the importance of microgeographic genetic dynamics and life history characteristics for better understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation and diversification of intertidal marine organisms. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  5. Dynamics of Betula ermanni population in subalpine vegetation in Changbai Mountain, Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zou Chunjing; Han Shijie; Wang Xiaochun

    1999-01-01

    Betula ermanni population was divided into three groups: the upper population (2 000~2 200 m), the middle population (1 700~2000 m), and the down population (1 400~1 700 m) in Changbai Mountain. The dynamics of Betula ermanni populations in subalpine vegetation are studied and the population life table,fecundity schedule, survival curves, age structure, and fecundity curves were established. The results showed that the middle population is obviously the transition from the upper population to the down population.

  6. EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMIC MODEL OF POPULATION WITH NICHE CONSTRUCTION AND ITS APPLICATION RESEARCH

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Based on the theories and approaches in biomechanics, the mechanism and pattern of niche construction were discussed systematically. Through establishing the spatial pattern of niche and its measuring-fitness formula, and the dynamic system models of single- and two-population with niche construction, including corresponding theoretical analysis and numerical simulation on their evolutionary dynamics of population and the mechanism of competitive coexistence, the co-evolutionary relationship between organisms and their environments was revealed. The results indicate that population dynamics is governed by positive feedback between primary ecological factors and resource content.Niche construction generates an evolutionary effect in system by influencing the fitness of population. A threshold effect exists in single population dynamic system. In dynamic system of two competitive populations, niche construction can lead to alternative competitive consequences, which may be a potential mechanism to explain the competitive coexistence of species.

  7. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  8. Mosquito population dynamic (diptera: culicidae in a eutrophised dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ED. Wermelinger

    Full Text Available This study observed the mosquito population in a rural eutrophised dam. Larvae of L3 and L4 stages and pupae were dipped out during twelve month collections and the reared to the adult stage for identification. The collections were done along nine metres from the edge of the dam divided in three parts (P1, P2 and P3, each part being 3 m long. P1 did not have vegetation (grass along its edge,which would reach or sink into the water to promote some shade on the marginal water. A total of 217 adults of four species was identified with the following constancies and frequencies: Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, 1823 (83% and 40.6%, Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus evansae (Brèthes, 1926 (92% and 26.7%, Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus rangeli (Gabaldon, Cova Garcia and Lopez, 1940 (83% and 14.3% and Culex nigripalpus (Theobald, 1901 (33% and 18.4%. C. quinquefasciatus, A. evansae, A. rangeli and C. nigripalpus were more frequent in the quarters Nov./Dec./Jan. (85.7%, May/June/July (75%, Aug./Sept./Oct. (29.4% and Aug./Sept./Oct. (23.5% particularly in the months of December (88.4% Sept.tember (48.94, (38.3 and August (47.62 respectively. The presence of C. quinquefasciatus and the high incidence of Daphinia sp. and also the levels of Organic Nitrogen (0.28 mg/L and of total Phosphorus (0.02 mg/L are indications of the eutrophication of the dam. There was a difference regarding the total of Anopheles (A. avansae + A. rangeli and Culex species (C. quinquefasciatus + C. nigripalpis between P1 and P2 (χ² = 0.0097, P1 and P3 (χ² = 0.0005, but not between P2 and P3 (χ² = 0.2045.The high C. quinquefasciatus constancy and frequency were confirmed to be a good biological indicator for a eutrophised environment and A. evansae showed a good potential for this environment. Vegetation can be an important factor for anopheline population dynamic also in eutrophic breeding sites.

  9. Mosquito population dynamic (Diptera: Culicidae) in a eutrophised dam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wermelinger, E D; Benigno, C V; Machado, R N M; Cabello, P H; Meira, A M; Ferreira, A P; Zanuncio, J C

    2012-11-01

    This study observed the mosquito population in a rural eutrophised dam. Larvae of L3 and L4 stages and pupae were dipped out during twelve month collections and the reared to the adult stage for identification. The collections were done along nine metres from the edge of the dam divided in three parts (P1, P2 and P3), each part being 3 m long. P1 did not have vegetation (grass) along its edge,which would reach or sink into the water to promote some shade on the marginal water. A total of 217 adults of four species was identified with the following constancies and frequencies: Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, 1823) (83% and 40.6%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) evansae (Brèthes, 1926) (92% and 26.7%), Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) rangeli (Gabaldon, Cova Garcia and Lopez, 1940) (83% and 14.3%) and Culex nigripalpus (Theobald, 1901) (33% and 18.4%). C. quinquefasciatus, A. evansae, A. rangeli and C. nigripalpus were more frequent in the quarters Nov./Dec./Jan. (85.7%), May/June/July (75%), Aug./Sept./Oct. (29.4%) and Aug./Sept./Oct. (23.5%) particularly in the months of December (88.4%) Sept.tember (48.94), (38.3) and August (47.62) respectively. The presence of C. quinquefasciatus and the high incidence of Daphinia sp. and also the levels of Organic Nitrogen (0.28 mg/L) and of total Phosphorus (0.02 mg/L) are indications of the eutrophication of the dam. There was a difference regarding the total of Anopheles (A. avansae + A. rangeli) and Culex species (C. quinquefasciatus + C. nigripalpis) between P1 and P2 (χ(2) = 0.0097), P1 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.0005), but not between P2 and P3 (χ(2) = 0.2045).The high C. quinquefasciatus constancy and frequency were confirmed to be a good biological indicator for a eutrophised environment and A. evansae showed a good potential for this environment. Vegetation can be an important factor for anopheline population dynamic also in eutrophic breeding sites.

  10. Quantifying Salmonella population dynamics in water and biofilms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sha, Qiong; Vattem, Dhiraj A; Forstner, Michael R J; Hahn, Dittmar

    2013-01-01

    Members of the bacterial genus Salmonella are recognized worldwide as major zoonotic pathogens often found to persist in non-enteric environments including heterogeneous aquatic biofilms. In this study, Salmonella isolates that had been detected repeatedly over time in aquatic biofilms at different sites in Spring Lake, San Marcos, Texas, were identified as serovars Give, Thompson, Newport and -:z10:z39. Pathogenicity results from feeding studies with the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans as host confirmed that these strains were pathogenic, with Salmonella-fed C. elegans dying faster (mean survival time between 3 and 4 days) than controls, i.e., Escherichia coli-fed C. elegans (mean survival time of 9.5 days). Cells of these isolates inoculated into water at a density of up to 10(6) ml(-1) water declined numerically by 3 orders of magnitude within 2 days, reaching the detection limit of our quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-based quantification technique (i.e., 10(3) cells ml(-1)). Similar patterns were obtained for cells in heterogeneous aquatic biofilms developed on tiles and originally free of Salmonella that were kept in the inoculated water. Cell numbers increased during the first days to more than 10(7) cells cm(-2), and then declined over time. Ten-fold higher cell numbers of Salmonella inoculated into water or into biofilm resulted in similar patterns of population dynamics, though cells in biofilms remained detectable with numbers around 10(4) cells cm(-2) after 4 weeks. Independent of detectability by qPCR, samples of all treatments harbored viable salmonellae that resembled the inoculated isolates after 4 weeks of incubation. These results demonstrate that pathogenic salmonellae were isolated from heterogeneous aquatic biofilms and that they could persist and stay viable in such biofilms in high numbers for some time.

  11. Activity-based protein profiling of secreted cellulolytic enzyme activity dynamics in Trichoderma reesei QM6a, NG14, and RUT-C30†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lindsey N.; Culley, David E.; Hofstad, Beth A.; Chauvigné-Hines, Lacie M.; Zink, Erika M.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Smith, Richard D.; Callister, Stephen J.; Magnuson, Jon M.; Wright, Aaron T.

    2014-01-01

    Lignocellulosic biomass has great promise as a highly abundant and renewable source for the production of biofuels. However, the recalcitrant nature of lignocellulose toward hydrolysis into soluble sugars remains a significant challenge to harnessing the potential of this source of bioenergy. A primary method for deconstructing lignocellulose is via chemical treatments, high temperatures, and hydrolytic enzyme cocktails, many of which are derived from the fungus Trichoderma reesei. Herein, we use an activity-based probe for glycoside hydrolases to rapidly identify optimal conditions for maximum enzymatic lignocellulose deconstruction. We also demonstrate that subtle changes to enzyme composition and activity in various strains of T. reesei can be readily characterized by our probe approach. The approach also permits multimodal measurements, including fluorescent gel-based analysis of activity in response to varied conditions and treatments, and mass spectrometry-based quantitative identification of labelled proteins. We demonstrate the promise this probe approach holds to facilitate rapid production of enzyme cocktails for high-efficiency lignocellulose deconstruction to accommodate high-yield biofuel production. PMID:24121482

  12. Species-specific earthworm population responses in relation to flooding dynamics in a Dutch floodplain soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zorn, M.I.; Gestel, van C.A.M.; Eijsackers, H.J.P.

    2005-01-01

    Earthworms dominate the animal biomass in moist floodplain soils. They are known to survive long periods in aerated water, but little is known about earthworm population dynamics in floodplain systems with changing inundation frequencies. This study determined earthworm population dynamics in a floo

  13. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived diffe

  14. Exploitation of Chemical Signaling by Parasitoids: Impact on Host Population Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lof, M.E.; Gee, de M.; Dicke, M.; Gort, G.; Hemerik, L.

    2013-01-01

    Chemical information mediates species interactions in a wide range of organisms. Yet, the effect of chemical information on population dynamics is rarely addressed. We designed a spatio-temporal parasitoid—host model to investigate the population dynamics when both the insect host and the parasitic

  15. From home range dynamics to population cycles: validation and realism of a common vole population model for pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Magnus

    2013-04-01

    Despite various attempts to establish population models as standard tools in pesticide risk assessment, population models still receive limited acceptance by risk assessors and authorities in Europe. A main criticism of risk assessors is that population models are often not, or not sufficiently, validated. Hence the realism of population-level risk assessments conducted with such models remains uncertain. We therefore developed an individual-based population model for the common vole, Microtus arvalis, and demonstrate how population models can be validated in great detail based on published data. The model is developed for application in pesticide risk assessment, therefore, the validation covers all areas of the biology of the common vole that are relevant for the analysis of potential effects and recovery after application of pesticides. Our results indicate that reproduction, survival, age structure, spatial behavior, and population dynamics reproduced from the model are comparable to field observations. Also interannual population cycles, which are frequently observed in field studies of small mammals, emerge from the population model. These cycles were shown to be caused by the home range behavior and dispersal. As observed previously in the field, population cycles in the model were also stronger for longer breeding season length. Our results show how validation can help to evaluate the realism of population models, and we discuss the importance of taking field methodology and resulting bias into account. Our results also demonstrate how population models can help to test or understand biological mechanisms in population ecology.

  16. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two......Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  17. Dynamics of a combined Medea-underdominant population transformation system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokhale, Chaitanya S; Reeves, Richard Guy; Reed, Floyd A

    2014-05-07

    Transgenic constructs intended to be stably established at high frequencies in wild populations have been demonstrated to "drive" from low frequencies in experimental insect populations. Linking such population transformation constructs to genes which render them unable to transmit pathogens could eventually be used to stop the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue. Generally, population transformation constructs with only a single transgenic drive mechanism have been envisioned. Using a theoretical modelling approach we describe the predicted properties of a construct combining autosomal Medea and underdominant population transformation systems. We show that when combined they can exhibit synergistic properties which in broad circumstances surpass those of the single systems. With combined systems, intentional population transformation and its reversal can be achieved readily. Combined constructs also enhance the capacity to geographically restrict transgenic constructs to targeted populations. It is anticipated that these properties are likely to be of particular value in attracting regulatory approval and public acceptance of this novel technology.

  18. Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in dry and wet seasons

    OpenAIRE

    SUWARNO

    2010-01-01

    Suwarno (2010) Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS), from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, ...

  19. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  20. Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Misra

    1993-09-01

    Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

  1. Smith, Malthus and Recent Evidence in Global Population Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao Jiang; Luis Villanueva

    2015-01-01

    In conventional economic theories, population is determined outside of the economic system. However, classical political economists such as Adam Smith and Thomas Malthus have long argued for the endogenous determination of population, hence establishing a connection between economics and demography. Foley (2000) used empirically established global per capita output-fertility schedule based on the 1960-1992 Extended Penn World Tables to project the population stabilizing level of world per cap...

  2. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  3. Population dynamics of some coccids (Coccoidea: Hemiptera) infesting sandal (Santalum album) in Bangalore, India

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ramachandran Sundararaj; Raja Muthukrishnan

    2011-01-01

    A study was conducted to investigate the population dynamics of four important coccids viz., Aonidiella orientalis (Newstead), Ceroplastes actiniformis Green, Cardiococcus bivalvata (Green) and Parasaissetia nigra (Nietner) infesting sandal in Bangalore, India. Meteorological data viz., monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures,morning and evening relative humidity and total rainfall were also collected during the experimental period for statistical analysis to ascertain their influence on the population of ceccids. The results show that all the four coccids are infesting sandal throughout the year. Maximum temperature exhibited significantly negative correlation with the population dynamics of A.orientalis, while other weather parameters did not show much influence on its incidence. In case of C. bivalvata, minimum temperature and morning relative humidity exhibited significant positive correlation with its population dynamics while other weather parameters had less significant effect on its population dynamics. For C.actiniformis and P. nigra, none of the weather factors seem to have influence on their incidences.

  4. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  5. A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian eBorlestean

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

  6. Confidence interval for number of population in dynamical stochastic exponential population growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Khodabin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the confidence interval for the solution of stochastic exponential population growth model where the so-called parameter, population growth rate is not completely definite and it depends on some random environmental effects is obtained. We use Iran population data in the period 1921-2006 as an example.

  7. Suppression of Beneficial Mutations in Dynamic Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittihn, Philip; Hasty, Jeff; Tsimring, Lev S.

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative predictions for the spread of mutations in bacterial populations are essential to interpret evolution experiments and to improve the stability of synthetic gene circuits. We derive analytical expressions for the suppression factor for beneficial mutations in populations that undergo periodic dilutions, covering arbitrary population sizes, dilution factors, and growth advantages in a single stochastic model. We find that the suppression factor grows with the dilution factor and depends nontrivially on the growth advantage, resulting in the preferential elimination of mutations with certain growth advantages. We confirm our results by extensive numerical simulations.

  8. Structural insight into epothilones antitumor activity based on the conformational preferences and tubulin binding modes of epothilones A and B obtained from molecular dynamics simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, Verónica A; Alderete, Joel B; Navarrete, Karen R

    2015-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations were employed to analyze the conformational preferences and binding modes of epothilones A and B as a source of structural information regarding the antitumor properties of these species. Our results suggest that the conformation of free and tubulin-bound epothilones is strongly influenced by the presence of a methyl group at C12 and that epothilones A and B exploit the binding cavity in a unique and different way. The binding sites of epothilones A and B share a common region of association (Leu215, Leu217, His227, Leu228, Ala231, Phe270, Gly360, and Leu361), but lead to different ligand-residue interactions. Average interaction energies predict a larger stabilization for the epothilone B-tubulin complex, which is mainly driven by the enhancement of the electrostatic component of ligand-residue interactions compared to the epothilone A-tubulin complex. These structural and energetic results can be useful to account for the activity difference between epothilones A and B, and to design more active and potent analogs that resemble the mechanism of action of epothilones against cancer cells.

  9. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  10. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  11. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Freitas

    1987-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/[square metre]; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line; monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species.

  12. Development and validation of an individual based Daphnia magna population model: The influence of crowding on population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Preuss, T.G.; Hammers-Wirtz, M.; Hommen, U.; Rubach, M.N.; Ratte, H.T.

    2009-01-01

    An individual-based model was developed to predict the population dynamics of Daphnia magna at laboratory conditions from individual life-history traits observed in experiments with different feeding conditions. Within the model, each daphnid passes its individual life cycle including feeding on alg

  13. Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

    OpenAIRE

    Jonas Cremer; Anna Melbinger; Erwin Frey

    2012-01-01

    Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of c...

  14. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  15. Dynamical Mueller's Ratchet: Population Size Dependence of Evolutionary Paths in Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Dirk; Park, Jeong-Man; Deem, Michael; Michael Deem Team

    2011-03-01

    Experimental evolution has recently enabled the complete quantitative description of small-dimensional fitness landscapes. Quasispecies theory allows the mathematical modeling of evolution on such a landscape. Typically, analytic solutions for these models are only exactly solvable for the case of an infinite population. Here we use a functional integral representation of population dynamics and solve it using the Schwinger Boson method. This allows us to compute the first-order correction to the average fitness for finite populations. We will use these results to explain the experimental observations of dynamics of evolution in finite populations.

  16. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  17. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita M Araújo

    Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

  18. Population dynamics of a natural red deer population over 200 years detected via substantial changes of genetic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Gunther Sebastian; Johannesen, Jes; Griebeler, Eva Maria

    2016-05-01

    Most large mammals have constantly been exposed to anthropogenic influence over decades or even centuries. Because of their long generation times and lack of sampling material, inferences of past population genetic dynamics, including anthropogenic impacts, have only relied on the analysis of the structure of extant populations. Here, we investigate for the first time the change in the genetic constitution of a natural red deer population over two centuries, using up to 200-year-old antlers (30 generations) stored in trophy collections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the oldest DNA source ever used for microsatellite population genetic analyses. We demonstrate that government policy and hunting laws may have strong impacts on populations that can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes in the genetic constitution of a large mammal population. A high ancestral individual polymorphism seen in an outbreeding population (1813-1861) was strongly reduced in descendants (1923-1940) during the mid-19th and early 20th century by genetic bottlenecks. Today (2011), individual polymorphism and variance among individuals is increasing in a constant-sized (managed) population. Differentiation was high among periods (F ST > ***); consequently, assignment tests assigned individuals to their own period with >85% probability. In contrast to the high variance observed at nuclear microsatellite loci, mtDNA (D-loop) was monomorphic through time, suggesting that male immigration dominates the genetic evolution in this population.

  19. State aggregation and population dynamics in linear systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Jonathan E; Vose, Michael D; Wright, Alden H

    2005-01-01

    We consider complex systems that are composed of many interacting elements, evolving under some dynamics. We are interested in characterizing the ways in which these elements may be grouped into higher-level, macroscopic states in a way that is compatible with those dynamics. Such groupings may then be thought of as naturally emergent properties of the system. We formalize this idea and, in the case that the dynamics are linear, prove necessary and sufficient conditions for this to happen. In cases where there is an underlying symmetry among the components of the system, group theory may be used to provide a strong sufficient condition. These observations are illustrated with some artificial life examples.

  20. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  1. Pacific Coast Caspian Terns: Dynamics of an expanding population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Robert E.; Mewaldt, L. Richard

    1983-01-01

    Nesting distribution, age-related seasonal movements, survivorship, and mechanisms of population expansion in Pacific Coast Caspian Terns (Sterna caspia) were examined primarily through analysis of 412 recoveries of birds banded as juveniles between 1935 and 1980. Since the beginning of this century, the population has shifted from nesting in numerous small colonies associated with freshwater marshes in interior California and southern Oregon to nesting primarily in large colonies on human-created habitats along the coast. Colonies at Grays Harbor, Washington and San Francisco and San Diego bays, California account for 77% of the current Pacific Coast population (6,000 pairs), which has breeding and wintering areas separate from those of populations east of the continental divide. There also appears to be some segregation on the wintering grounds by birds from the three major colonies within the Pacific population. Age-related seasonal movements in the Pacific population are characterized by (1) a brief period of northward dispersal by newly fledged birds before migrating to the wintering grounds, (2) a residency on the wintering grounds through their second winter, (3) a return to the breeding grounds the third summer, when most birds are thought to prospect breeding sites and some may breed, and (4) attainment of adulthood the fourth summer, with subsequent annual movements between wintering and breeding grounds.The Pacific population has increased 70% since 1960, apparently all by intrinsic growth. Over half (57%) of the fledglings reach their fourth year, and they have a subsequent annual survival rate of 89% and a mean breeding life expectancy of 8.6 yr. An average annual fledging rate of 0.64 young per pair was calculated as necessary to have provided the observed growth of the population during its recent expansion. Growth of some of the individual colonies, however, particularly those in Washington, could only have resulted from extensive recruitment of

  2. Midcontinental Native American population dynamics and late Holocene hydroclimate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Broxton W.; Wilson, Jeremy J.; Gilhooly, William P., III; Steinman, Byron A.; Stamps, Lucas

    2017-01-01

    Climate’s influence on late Pre-Columbian (pre-1492 CE), maize-dependent Native American populations in the midcontinental United States (US) is poorly understood as regional paleoclimate records are sparse and/or provide conflicting perspectives. Here, we reconstruct regional changes in precipitation source and seasonality and local changes in warm-season duration and rainstorm events related to the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) using a 2100-year-long multi-proxy lake-sediment record from the midcontinental US. Wet midcontinental climate reflecting negative PNA-like conditions occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 CE) as Native American populations adopted intensive maize agriculture, facilitating population aggregation and the development of urban centers between 1000–1200 CE. Intensifying midcontinental socio-political instability and warfare between 1250–1350 CE corresponded with drier positive PNA-like conditions, culminating in the staggered abandonment of many major Native American river valley settlements and large urban centers between 1350–1450 CE during an especially severe warm-season drought. We hypothesize that this sustained drought interval rendered it difficult to support dense populations and large urban centers in the midcontinental US by destabilizing regional agricultural systems, thereby contributing to the host of socio-political factors that led to population reorganization and migration in the midcontinent and neighboring regions shortly before European contact.

  3. Midcontinental Native American population dynamics and late Holocene hydroclimate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Broxton W.; Wilson, Jeremy J.; Gilhooly III, William P.; Steinman, Byron A.; Stamps, Lucas

    2017-01-01

    Climate’s influence on late Pre-Columbian (pre-1492 CE), maize-dependent Native American populations in the midcontinental United States (US) is poorly understood as regional paleoclimate records are sparse and/or provide conflicting perspectives. Here, we reconstruct regional changes in precipitation source and seasonality and local changes in warm-season duration and rainstorm events related to the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) using a 2100-year-long multi-proxy lake-sediment record from the midcontinental US. Wet midcontinental climate reflecting negative PNA-like conditions occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 CE) as Native American populations adopted intensive maize agriculture, facilitating population aggregation and the development of urban centers between 1000–1200 CE. Intensifying midcontinental socio-political instability and warfare between 1250–1350 CE corresponded with drier positive PNA-like conditions, culminating in the staggered abandonment of many major Native American river valley settlements and large urban centers between 1350–1450 CE during an especially severe warm-season drought. We hypothesize that this sustained drought interval rendered it difficult to support dense populations and large urban centers in the midcontinental US by destabilizing regional agricultural systems, thereby contributing to the host of socio-political factors that led to population reorganization and migration in the midcontinent and neighboring regions shortly before European contact. PMID:28139698

  4. Evolutionary game dynamics in populations with heterogenous structures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wes Maciejewski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary graph theory is a well established framework for modelling the evolution of social behaviours in structured populations. An emerging consensus in this field is that graphs that exhibit heterogeneity in the number of connections between individuals are more conducive to the spread of cooperative behaviours. In this article we show that such a conclusion largely depends on the individual-level interactions that take place. In particular, averaging payoffs garnered through game interactions rather than accumulating the payoffs can altogether remove the cooperative advantage of heterogeneous graphs while such a difference does not affect the outcome on homogeneous structures. In addition, the rate at which game interactions occur can alter the evolutionary outcome. Less interactions allow heterogeneous graphs to support more cooperation than homogeneous graphs, while higher rates of interactions make homogeneous and heterogeneous graphs virtually indistinguishable in their ability to support cooperation. Most importantly, we show that common measures of evolutionary advantage used in homogeneous populations, such as a comparison of the fixation probability of a rare mutant to that of the resident type, are no longer valid in heterogeneous populations. Heterogeneity causes a bias in where mutations occur in the population which affects the mutant's fixation probability. We derive the appropriate measures for heterogeneous populations that account for this bias.

  5. Evolutionary game dynamics in populations with heterogenous structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciejewski, Wes; Fu, Feng; Hauert, Christoph

    2014-04-01

    Evolutionary graph theory is a well established framework for modelling the evolution of social behaviours in structured populations. An emerging consensus in this field is that graphs that exhibit heterogeneity in the number of connections between individuals are more conducive to the spread of cooperative behaviours. In this article we show that such a conclusion largely depends on the individual-level interactions that take place. In particular, averaging payoffs garnered through game interactions rather than accumulating the payoffs can altogether remove the cooperative advantage of heterogeneous graphs while such a difference does not affect the outcome on homogeneous structures. In addition, the rate at which game interactions occur can alter the evolutionary outcome. Less interactions allow heterogeneous graphs to support more cooperation than homogeneous graphs, while higher rates of interactions make homogeneous and heterogeneous graphs virtually indistinguishable in their ability to support cooperation. Most importantly, we show that common measures of evolutionary advantage used in homogeneous populations, such as a comparison of the fixation probability of a rare mutant to that of the resident type, are no longer valid in heterogeneous populations. Heterogeneity causes a bias in where mutations occur in the population which affects the mutant's fixation probability. We derive the appropriate measures for heterogeneous populations that account for this bias.

  6. Development of a Dynamic Population Balance Plant Simulator for Mineral Processing Circuits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fatemeh Khoshnam; Mohammad reza Khalesi; Ahmad Khodadadi Darban; Mohammad Javad Zarei

    2015-01-01

    .... The dynamic simulator of each mentioned unit was also developedaccording to population balance models with the help of MATLAB/Simulink environment and wasverified against the data from the literature...

  7. Muskrat population dynamics and vegetation utilization : A management plan : Quarterly progress report : April, May, June 1979

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Quarterly report on a study of muskrat population dynamics and vegetation utilization, being led by Utah State University for a doctorate dissertation. The study...

  8. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  9. Approximation of solutions to retarded differential equations with applications to population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bahuguna

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a retarded differential equation with applications to population dynamics. We establish the convergence of a finite-dimensional approximations of a unique solution, the existence and uniqueness of which are also proved in the process.

  10. Population dynamics, life-history traits of and habitat use by two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Aquatic Science ... Population dynamics and life-history traits of two sympatric nothobranchiid killifishes, Epiplatys bifasciatus and ... effort through daily spawning, short generation time, short life span and high mortality rate.

  11. Modeling regional population-employment dynamics across different sectors of the economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaff, T. de; Oort, F.G. van; Florax, R.

    2012-01-01

    An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of population

  12. The recovery, distribution, and population dynamics of wolves on the Scandinavian peninsula, 1978-1998

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wabakken P; Sand H; Liberg O; Bjarvall A

    2001-01-01

    .... During 20 successive winters, from 1978 1979 to 1997 1998, the status, distribution, and dynamics of the wolf population were monitored by snow-tracking as a cooperative Swedish Norwegian project...

  13. Muskrat population dynamics and vegetation utilization : A management plan : Report on 1980 field season

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Report for the 1980 field season on a study of muskrat population dynamics and vegetation utilization, being led by Utah State University for a doctorate...

  14. Assessing the importance of demographic parameters for population dynamics using Bayesian integrated population modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eacker, Daniel R; Lukacs, Paul M; Proffitt, Kelly M; Hebblewhite, Mark

    2017-06-01

    To successfully respond to changing habitat, climate or harvest, managers need to identify the most effective strategies to reverse population trends of declining species and/or manage harvest of game species. A classic approach in conservation biology for the last two decades has been the use of matrix population models to determine the most important vital rates affecting population growth rate (λ), that is, sensitivity. Ecologists quickly realized the critical role of environmental variability in vital rates affecting λ by developing approaches such as life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) that account for both sensitivity and variability of a vital rate. These LSA methods used matrix-population modeling and Monte Carlo simulation methods, but faced challenges in integrating data from different sources, disentangling process and sampling variation, and in their flexibility. Here, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) for two populations of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) in Montana, USA. We then extended the IPM to evaluate sensitivity in a Bayesian framework. We integrated known-fate survival data from radio-marked adults and juveniles, fecundity data, and population counts in a hierarchical population model that explicitly accounted for process and sampling variance. Next, we tested the prevailing paradigm in large herbivore population ecology that juvenile survival of neonates modeling in a Bayesian framework can provide multiple advantages. Our Bayesian LSA framework will provide a useful approach to addressing conservation challenges across a variety of species and data types. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. Fast game theory coupled to slow population dynamics: the case of domestic cat populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, P; Pontier, D

    1998-02-01

    We study a deterministic model of a population where individuals alternatively adopt hawk and dove tactics. It is assumed that the hawk and dove individuals compete for some resources at a fast time scale. This fast part of the model is coupled to a slow part that describes the growth of the population. It is shown that, in a constant game matrix, the population grows according to a logistic curve whose r and K parameters are related to the payoff of the tactics. Results show that the highest population density is obtained when all individuals are dove. We also study a density-dependent game matrix for which the gain is a function of the population density. In this case, we show that two stable equilibria can occur, a first one at low density with a high proportion of hawk individuals and a second one at large density with a low proportion of hawk individuals. Our model is applied to domestic cat populations for which the behavior of individuals in competition with one another can be modeled by two tactics: hawk and dove. Such tactics change with density of population. The results of the model agree well with observed data: high-density populations of domestic cats are mainly doves, whereas low-density populations are mainly hawks.

  16. [The relationship between population dynamics and the process of development: an interdependence requiring the definition of population policies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    The case of Senegal is used to illustrate the impact of population dynamics on the economic development of a country and the process of creating a population policy. 1 of the 6 principles of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action concerning African population and autonomous development was the interdependence between population and development, but interest in the problem was only sporadic until the deepening of the economic crisis. Population growth is now regarded as a major constraint on improvement of welfare for the population. The population of the Sahel countries has almost doubled in the past 2 decades as a consequence of very high fertility rates and declining mortality rates. About 44% of the Sahel population is under 15 years old and only about 53% is aged 15-64. The population is unequally distributed and the proportion urban increased from 18 to 23% between 1982-85. The general opinion is that the African population is increasing more rapidly than available resources. From 1973-83, Senegal's gross national product increased by 2.2%/year on average, less than the population increase of 2.5%. Cereal production increased by 1%/year between 1973-81. Investments in agriculture have declined continuously since 1973. Cereal needs are on the order of 6.69 million tons, while production is only 4.4 million tons. According to the World Bank the literacy rate for 5 Sahel countries was only 15% in 1982, and only 35% of school aged children are enrolled. The constant increase of population is also putting pressure on health services. In response to these problems, Senegal developed its population policy in 3 phases. In the 1st phase, 3 commissions and a working group carried out research and documentation around the country, producing sectorial documents. In the 2nd phase, workshops and seminars were held for the critical examination of the sectorial documents, culminating in presentation of a synthesis to the National Commission on Population and to the

  17. An overview of the population dynamics in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshat, H; Tey Nai Peng

    1988-06-01

    Between 1900 and 1985 the population of Malaysia has increased from 2 million to 16 million. Before World War II most of the growth was due to immigration from China and India; after World War II it was due to natural increase. The crude birth rate appears to be leveling off at about 31.3 and the crude death rate at 5.3. At the current rate of growth the total population will be about 32 million by 2015. The proportion of urban population increased from 27% in 1979 to 34% in 1980. In 1980 83% of the population lived in Peninsular Malaysia (39% of the land area), and 17% lived in Sabah and Sarawak (61% of the land area). Population density ranges from 12 persons per square kilometer in Sarawak to 4521 in the Federal Republic of Kuala Lumpur. The median age of the population is 17.4 years; 40% are under 14, and 3.6% are over 65. In most age groups there are more women than men. The annual growth rate for Malays is higher than for Chinese and Indians, and Malays constituted 55% of the population in 1980. 34% are Chinese and 10% are Indian. Total fertility rate declined from 68/1000 in 1957 to 39/1000 in 1985. Malay fertility (4.8 children) is higher than either Indian (2.9) or Chinese (2.7) Malay fertility has been increasing while that of Indians and Chinese is decreasing due to contraception. Also, among all 3 groups age at marriage has increased. Data from the 1984/85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey show that the differential fertility of the 3 groups is due largely to rural/urban distribution, education, and work patterns. Ideal family size, according to the survey, is 4.8. The National Population and Family Development Program would like to achieve a growth rate of 2%/year, and family planning knowledge has become virtually universal. KAP surveys show that by 1984 contraceptive prevalence was 51%; however 42% of all eligible women were using unreliable methods. In terms of efficient methods, contraceptive prevalence rate was 16% for Malays, 47% for Chinese

  18. Ecological change, group territoriality, and population dynamics in Serengeti lions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packer, Craig; Hilborn, Ray; Mosser, Anna; Kissui, Bernard; Borner, Markus; Hopcraft, Grant; Wilmshurst, John; Mduma, Simon; Sinclair, Anthony R E

    2005-01-21

    Territorial behavior is expected to buffer populations against short-term environmental perturbations, but we have found that group living in African lions causes a complex response to long-term ecological change. Despite numerous gradual changes in prey availability and vegetative cover, regional populations of Serengeti lions remained stable for 10- to 20-year periods and only shifted to new equilibria in sudden leaps. Although gradually improving environmental conditions provided sufficient resources to permit the subdivision of preexisting territories, regional lion populations did not expand until short-term conditions supplied enough prey to generate large cohorts of surviving young. The results of a simulation model show that the observed pattern of "saltatory equilibria" results from the lions' grouping behavior.

  19. Population, environment dynamics, poverty and quality of life in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, B

    1996-12-01

    This article focuses on the growth in poverty, environmental concerns, and Chinese government efforts to eliminate poverty with integrated programs. China had 1.2 billion people in February 1995, or 20% of total world population on 7% of the world's arable land. The rate of natural increase was 1.1% in 1996. China's population could double to 2.4 billion by 2060. About 14 million people are added every year. China has about 300 million women of childbearing age. Even with 1 child per woman, population would grow by 300 million. 18 provinces have population growth over the national average of 1.49%. Many of these provinces are also provinces with high population density, high poverty ratios, and higher than 2 birth orders. The highest growth is in western China. Poor households have a lower quality of life, more disabled members, high rates of endemic disease, and illiteracy. Among the very poor without adequate food or clothing, environmental protection is a meaningless concept. Poverty alleviation strategies have shifted from relief to economic development. State support combined with local resources in a pooling approach pays for poverty alleviation programs. The central government's share will increase until the year 2000. The number of poor was 80 million in 1994 (9% of total population) living in 592 poor counties in remote and mountainous areas. The number of poor was reduced to 65 million in 1996. An integrated approach of family planning and poverty alleviation operates in Jinzhai County of Anhui province. China is determined to reorient to a "service-oriented, client- centered, woman-sensitive, and rural-emphasized approach."

  20. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Loughry

    Full Text Available Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006 of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current

  1. Phylogeography, population dynamics, and molecular evolution of European bat lyssaviruses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, P.L.; Holmes, E.C.; Larrous, F.

    2005-01-01

    origin, and population growth rates of EBLV-1. Our study encompassed data from 12 countries collected over a time span of 35 years and focused on the glycoprotein (G) and nucleoprotein (N) genes. We show that although the two subtypes of EBLV-1-EBLV-1a and EBLV-lb-have both grown at a low exponential...... rate since their introduction into Europe, they have differing population structures and dispersal patterns. Furthermore, there were strong constraints against amino acid change in both EBLV-1 and EBLV-2, as reflected in a low ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions per site, particularly...

  2. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D

    2014-01-01

    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  3. Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart;

    2016-01-01

    clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly......The dynamics of structured plant populations in variable environments can be decomposed into the ‘asymptotic’ growth contributed by vital rates, and ‘transient’ growth caused by deviation from stable stage structure. We apply this framework to a large, global data base of longitudinal studies...... of projection matrix models for plant populations. We ask, what is the relative contribution of transient boom and bust to the dynamic trajectories of plant populations in stochastic environments? Is this contribution patterned by phylogeny, growth form or the number of life stages per population and per...

  4. Modeling complex spatial dynamics of two-population interaction in urbanization process

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Yanguang

    2013-01-01

    This paper is mainly devoted to lay an empirical foundation for further research on complex spatial dynamics of two-population interaction. Based on the US population census data, a rural and urban population interaction model is developed. Subsequently a logistic equation on percentage urban is derived from the urbanization model so that spatial interaction can be connected mathematically with logistic growth. The numerical experiment by using the discretized urban-rural population interaction model of urbanization shows a period-doubling bifurcation and chaotic behavior, which is identical in patterns to those from the simple mathematical models of logistic growth in ecology. This suggests that the complicated dynamics of logistic growth may come from some kind of the nonlinear interaction. The results from this study help to understand urbanization, urban-rural population interaction, chaotic dynamics, and spatial complexity of geographical systems.

  5. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Laurence D. Mueller; Amitabh Joshi; Marta Santos; Michael R. Rose

    2013-12-01

    Census population size, sex-ratio and female reproductive success were monitored in 10 laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for different ages of reproduction. With this demographic information, we estimated eigenvalue, variance and probability of allele loss effective population sizes. We conclude that estimates of effective size based on genefrequency change at a few loci are biased downwards. We analysed the relative roles of selection and genetic drift in maintaining genetic variation in laboratory populations of Drosophila. We suggest that rare, favourable genetic variants in our laboratory populations have a high chance of being lost if their fitness effect is weak, e.g. 1% or less. However, if the fitness effect of this variation is 10% or greater, these rare variants are likely to increase to high frequency. The demographic information developed in this study suggests that some of our laboratory populations harbour more genetic variation than expected. One explanation for this finding is that part of the genetic variation in these outbred laboratory Drosophila populations may be maintained by some form of balancing selection. We suggest that, unlike bacteria, medium-term adaptation of laboratory populations of fruit flies is not primarily driven by new mutations, but rather by changes in the frequency of preexisting alleles.

  6. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of ciliate growth, the population of cystic ciliates increased 100-fold. We suggest that internal population regulation is the major factor governing ciliate encystment and that the rate of encystment depends on ciliate density. This model provides a quantitative explanation of ciliatostasis and can explain...

  7. Food-dependent individual growth and population dynamics in fishes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Persson; A.M. de Roos

    2006-01-01

    It is long since well established that growth and development in fish individuals are heavily dependent on food intake. Yet, this dependence of individual development on food levels has only to a limited extent been taken into consideration when studying fish population and community processes. Usin

  8. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    2016-01-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  9. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  10. Population dynamics of Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. L. Severinghaus

    1997-01-01

    Monthly visits to Lanyu Island have been made to study Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis) since 1986. This population has been surveyed by regular census and playback counts, by color banding, by monitoring the survival, reproduction and movements of individual owls, and by mapping and documenting the change in nest trees.

  11. From homogeneous eigenvalue problems to two-sex population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieme, Horst R

    2017-03-08

    Enclosure theorems are derived for homogeneous bounded order-preserving operators and illustrated for operators involving pair-formation functions introduced by Karl-Peter Hadeler in the late 1980s. They are applied to a basic discrete-time two-sex population model and to the relation between the basic turnover number and the basic reproduction number.

  12. Population dynamics in central and edge populations of a narrowly endemic plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aikens, Melissa L; Roach, Deborah A

    2014-07-01

    Species' range limits can be caused by environmental gradients, and in such cases, abundance is thought to be highest in the center of a species range and decline towards the edge (the abundant-center model). Although in theory decreased abundance is caused by a decline in performance at the edge, it has been shown that performance and abundance are not necessarily related. Few studies have compared abundance and performance in center and edge populations of endemic species, whose ranges may be restricted by the availability of specialized habitat rather than environmental gradients across their range. Additionally, range-wide studies that examine both northern and southern edge populations are rare. We used Roan Mountain rattlesnake-root (Prenanthes roanensis), a perennial plant endemic to the Southern Appalachians (USA), to compare abundance and performance between central populations and populations at the northern and southern edges of the range. To account for multiple fitness components across the life cycle, we measured performance of edge populations as vital-rate contributions to population growth rate compared to the center. Abundance did not decline at the range edge, but some vital-rate contributions were lower in edge populations compared to central populations. However, each edge population differed in which vital-rate contributions were lower compared to the center. Our results do not support the abundant-center model, and it appears that local factors are important in structuring the range of this endemic species. It is important to recognize that when implementing conservation or management plans, populations in close proximity may have substantial variation in demographic rates due to differences in the local environment.

  13. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  14. Quantification of Dynamic Excitation Potential of Pedestrian Population Crossing Footbridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stana Žcaronivanović

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to their slenderness, many modern footbridges may vibrate significantly under pedestrian traffic. Consequently, the vibration serviceability of these structures under human-induced dynamic loading is becoming their governing design criterion. Many current vibration serviceability design guidelines, concerned with prediction of the vibration in the vertical direction, estimate a single response level that corresponds to an "average" person crossing the bridge with the step frequency that matches a footbridge natural frequency. However, different pedestrians have different dynamic excitation potential, and therefore could generate significantly different vibration response of the bridge structure. This paper aims to quantify this potential by estimating the range of structural vibrations (in the vertical direction that could be induced by different individuals and the probability of occurrence of any particular vibration level. This is done by introducing the inter- and intra-subject variability in the walking force modelling. The former term refers to inability of a pedestrian to induce an exactly the same force with each step while the latter refers to different forces (in terms of their magnitude, frequency and crossing speed induced by different people. Both types of variability are modelled using the appropriate probability density functions. The probability distributions were then implemented into a framework procedure for vibration response prediction under a single person excitation. Instead of a single response value obtained using currently available design guidelines, this new framework yields a range of possible acceleration responses induced by different people and a distribution function for these responses. The acceleration ranges estimated are then compared with experimental data from two real-life footbridges. The substantial differences in the dynamic response induced by different people are obtained in both the numerical and

  15. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  16. Structural perturbations to population skeletons: transient dynamics, coexistence of attractors and the rarity of chaos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajendra K Singh

    Full Text Available Simple models of insect populations with non-overlapping generations have been instrumental in understanding the mechanisms behind population cycles, including wild (chaotic fluctuations. The presence of deterministic chaos in natural populations, however, has never been unequivocally accepted. Recently, it has been proposed that the application of chaos control theory can be useful in unravelling the complexity observed in real population data. This approach is based on structural perturbations to simple population models (population skeletons. The mechanism behind such perturbations to control chaotic dynamics thus far is model dependent and constant (in size and direction through time. In addition, the outcome of such structurally perturbed models is [almost] always equilibrium type, which fails to commensurate with the patterns observed in population data.We present a proportional feedback mechanism that is independent of model formulation and capable of perturbing population skeletons in an evolutionary way, as opposed to requiring constant feedbacks. We observe the same repertoire of patterns, from equilibrium states to non-chaotic aperiodic oscillations to chaotic behaviour, across different population models, in agreement with observations in real population data. Model outputs also indicate the existence of multiple attractors in some parameter regimes and this coexistence is found to depend on initial population densities or the duration of transient dynamics. Our results suggest that such a feedback mechanism may enable a better understanding of the regulatory processes in natural populations.

  17. Dynamics of Microbial Populations during Fermentation of Wines from the Utiel-Requena Region of Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Pardo, Isabel; García, María José; Zúñiga, Manuel; Uruburu, Federico

    1989-01-01

    The dynamics of fungi, yeasts, and lactic acid bacteria during fermentation of four musts were studied. Fungi disappeared quickly in the fermenting must. The lactic acid bacteria population diminished during alcoholic fermentation, then they increased and performed malolactic fermentation. Yeasts grew quickly, reaching maximum populations at different times depending on the vinification treatment.

  18. Eel population dynamic and habitat relationships in the European southern tip.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramon José De Miguel

    2015-11-01

    According to our previous results, the eel population in the most southern region in Europe shows similar averages in dynamic population indicators compared to other European areas. On the other hand, no environmental predictors showed major influence on catchability, except for, those related to previous abundant rainfalls.

  19. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth diffe

  20. Site-specific dynamics in remnant populations of Northern Wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosten, van H.H.; Turnhout, van C.; Hallmann, C.A.; Majoor, F.; Roodbergen, M.; Schekkerman, H.; Versluijs, R.; Waasdorp, S.; Siepel, H.

    2015-01-01

    Dynamics of populations may be synchronized at large spatial scales, indicating driving forces acting beyond local scales, but may also vary locally as a result of site-specific conditions. Conservation measures for fragmented and declining populations may need to address such local effects to avoid

  1. Density dependence and population dynamics of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya's rhino sanctuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouma, B.O.; Amin, R.; Langevelde, van F.; Leader-Williams, N.

    2010-01-01

    Density-dependent feedback mechanisms provide insights into the population dynamics and interactions of large herbivores with their ecosystem. Sex ratio also has particularly important implications for growth rates of many large mammal populations through its influence on reproductive potential. The

  2. Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

  3. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  4. demoniche – an R-package for simulating spatially-explicit population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nenzén, Hedvig K.; Swab, Rebecca Marie; Keith, David A.

    2012-01-01

    demoniche is a freely available R-package which simulates stochastic population dynamics in multiple populations of a species. A demographic model projects population sizes utilizing several transition matrices that can represent impacts on species growth. The demoniche model offers options...... for setting demographic stochasticity, carrying capacity, and dispersal. The demographic projection in each population is linked to spatially-explicit niche values, which affect the species growth. With the demoniche package it is possible to compare the influence of scenarios of environmental changes...... on future population sizes, extinction probabilities, and range shifts of species....

  5. Two-Population Dynamics in a Growing Network Model

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanova, Kristinka

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.

  6. A DYNAMICAL SIGNATURE OF MULTIPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS IN 47 TUCANAE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richer, Harvey B.; Heyl, Jeremy [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Anderson, Jay; Kalirai, Jason S. [Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Shara, Michael M. [Department of Astrophysics, American Museum of Natural History, Central Park West at 79th Street, New York, NY 10024 (United States); Dotter, Aaron [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Australian National University, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Fahlman, Gregory G. [National Research Council, Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, Victoria, BC V9E 2E7 (Canada); Rich, R. Michael, E-mail: richer@astro.ubc.ca, E-mail: heyl@phas.ubc.ca, E-mail: jayander@stsci.edu, E-mail: jkalarai@stsci.edu, E-mail: mshara@amnh.org, E-mail: aaron.dotter@gmail.com, E-mail: greg.fahlman@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca, E-mail: rmr@astro.ucla.edu [Division of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Based on the width of its main sequence, and an actual observed split when viewed through particular filters, it is widely accepted that 47 Tucanae contains multiple stellar populations. In this contribution, we divide the main sequence of 47 Tuc into four color groups, which presumably represent stars of various chemical compositions. The kinematic properties of each of these groups are explored via proper motions, and a strong signal emerges of differing proper-motion anisotropies with differing main-sequence color; the bluest main-sequence stars exhibit the largest proper-motion anisotropy which becomes undetectable for the reddest stars. In addition, the bluest stars are also the most centrally concentrated. A similar analysis for Small Magellanic Cloud stars, which are located in the background of 47 Tuc on our frames, yields none of the anisotropy exhibited by the 47 Tuc stars. We discuss implications of these results for possible formation scenarios of the various populations.

  7. Dynamics in the devolopment of donkey population in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vlaeva

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the recent study was to trace back the development of the donkey population in Bulgaria for the period 1950 – 2015. For that purpose the data from the National Statistic Institute and FAO was processed and other sources related to the problem were analyzed. Donkeys in Bulgaria used to be a comparatively large share of the traction power animals in the past, with the occurance of the social and economical changes after 1990 their number was dramatically reduced. This process is most noticeable after 2000, when for five year period until 2005 the donkey population in Bulgaria drops down from 207000 to 90000 individuals, as in 2013 this number falls down to 35000 according to FAO.

  8. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus de M Teixeira

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2, Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species.Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234 resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA. We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2, harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats.At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this important pathogen complex.

  9. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Maria L.; Gómez, Beatriz L.; Theodoro, Raquel C.; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M.; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M.; Felipe, Maria S. S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Methodology/Principal Findings Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. Conclusions/Significance At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this

  10. Recovery of methanotrophs from disturbance: population dynamics, evenness and functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Adrian; Lüke, Claudia; Frenzel, Peter

    2011-04-01

    Biodiversity is claimed to be essential for ecosystem functioning, but is threatened by anthropogenic disturbances. Prokaryotes have been assumed to be functionally redundant and virtually inextinguishable. However, recent work indicates that microbes may well be sensitive to environmental disturbance. Focusing on methane-oxidizing bacteria as model organisms, we simulated disturbance-induced mortality by mixing native with sterilized paddy soil in two ratios, 1:4 and 1:40, representing moderate and severe die-offs. Disturbed microcosms were compared with an untreated control. Recovery of activity and populations was followed over 4 months by methane uptake measurements, pmoA-qPCR, pmoA-based terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and a pmoA-based diagnostic microarray. Diversity and evenness of methanotrophs decreased in disturbed microcosms, but functioning was not compromised. We consistently observed distinctive temporal shifts between type I and type II methanotrophs, and a rapid population growth leading to even higher cell numbers comparing disturbed microcosms with the control. Overcompensating mortality suggested that population size in the control was limited by competition with other bacteria. Overall, methanotrophs showed a remarkable ability to compensate for die-offs.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

    2013-03-01

    Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

  12. Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

    2016-01-01

    Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of

  13. Dynamics of biomass and population density of fucus algae of the Kola Bay, Barents Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malavenda S. S.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The long-term dynamics of biomass and population density of Fucus distichus and F. vesiculosus in the southern and middle knees of the Kola Bay have been analyzed. The feedbacks between these parameters and their changes over several years have been revealed for the first time. Changing the prevalence of biomass and population density can be considered as an adaptation at the population level to maintain the stability of algae communities in chronic pollution

  14. Population Dynamics of Soil Pseudomonads in the Rhizosphere of Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.)

    OpenAIRE

    Joyce E Loper; Haack, Caryn; Schroth, Milton N.

    1985-01-01

    Rhizosphere population dynamics of seven Pseudomonas fluorescens and Pseudomonas putida strains isolated from rhizospheres of various agricultural plants were studied on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in field soil under controlled environmental conditions. Rhizosphere populations of two strains (B10 and B4) were quantitatively related to initial seed piece inoculum levels when plants were grown at −0.3 bar matric potential. At a given inoculum level, rhizosphere populations of strain B4 were ...

  15. The population and evolutionary dynamics of homologous gene recombination in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce R Levin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In bacteria, recombination is a rare event, not a part of the reproductive process. Nevertheless, recombination -- broadly defined to include the acquisition of genes from external sources, i.e., horizontal gene transfer (HGT -- plays a central role as a source of variation for adaptive evolution in many species of bacteria. Much of niche expansion, resistance to antibiotics and other environmental stresses, virulence, and other characteristics that make bacteria interesting and problematic, is achieved through the expression of genes and genetic elements obtained from other populations of bacteria of the same and different species, as well as from eukaryotes and archaea. While recombination of homologous genes among members of the same species has played a central role in the development of the genetics and molecular biology of bacteria, the contribution of homologous gene recombination (HGR to bacterial evolution is not at all clear. Also, not so clear are the selective pressures responsible for the evolution and maintenance of transformation, the only bacteria-encoded form of HGR. Using a semi-stochastic simulation of mutation, recombination, and selection within bacterial populations and competition between populations, we explore (1 the contribution of HGR to the rate of adaptive evolution in these populations and (2 the conditions under which HGR will provide a bacterial population a selective advantage over non-recombining or more slowly recombining populations. The results of our simulation indicate that, under broad conditions: (1 HGR occurring at rates in the range anticipated for bacteria like Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, and Bacillus subtilis will accelerate the rate at which a population adapts to environmental conditions; (2 once established in a population, selection for this capacity to increase rates of adaptive evolution can maintain bacteria-encoded mechanisms of recombination and prevent

  16. Postfire seedling dynamics and performance in Pinus halepensis Mill. populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakou, Evangelia N.; Thanos, Costas A.

    2010-09-01

    Postfire dynamics of Aleppo pine seedling density, survival and growth were assessed in five burned forests of Attica, Greece (Stamata, Villia, Avlona, Kapandriti and Agios Stefanos) through the establishment of permanent experimental plots. All emerging seedlings were tagged and their survival and growth monitored at regular intervals. Seedling density dynamics show an initial, steep increase (to maximum values 2.9-4.6 seedlings m -2) followed by a gradual decrease that levels off at the second and third postfire year (1.3-3.0 seedlings m -2); similarly, postfire seedling survival more or less stabilised at 30-50%, 2-3 years after fire. On the basis of density and mortality trends as well as relevant bibliographic data, it is predicted that very dense, mature forests (10.000 trees ha -1 or more) will be reinstated within 15-20 years. During the first 5-7 postfire years, seedling/sapling annual height followed linear trends with various yearly rates, ranging mostly between 8 and 15 cm (and 27-30 cm in two exceptional, fast growing cases). Within an individual growth season, seedling height dynamics were found to follow sigmoid curves with growth increment peaks in mid-spring. The time (on a monthly basis) of seedling emergence did not affect seedling growth or survival. On the other hand, for the first time under natural conditions, it has been shown that cotyledon number per seedling, an indirect measure of both seed size and initial photosynthetic capacity, significantly affected seedling survival but not growth. Seedlings bearing a higher number of cotyledons, presumably derived from larger seeds, showed greater survival at the end of the first postfire year than seedlings with fewer cotyledons. A postfire selective pressure, favouring large seed size, is postulated to counteract with a contrasting one, which favours small seed size, expressed during fire-free conditions.

  17. Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

  18. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  19. Evolutionary dynamics of the most populated genotype on rugged fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Kavita

    2007-09-01

    We consider an asexual population evolving on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multidimensional genotypic space and have many local optima. We track the most populated genotype as it changes when the population jumps from a fitness peak to a better one during the process of adaptation. This is done using the dynamics of the shell model which is a simplified version of the quasispecies model for infinite populations and standard Wright-Fisher dynamics for large finite populations. We show that the population fraction of a genotype obtained within the quasispecies model and the shell model match for fit genotypes and at short times, but the dynamics of the two models are identical for questions related to the most populated genotype. We calculate exactly several properties of the jumps in infinite populations, some of which were obtained numerically in previous works. We also present our preliminary simulation results for finite populations. In particular, we measure the jump distribution in time and find that it decays as t-2 as in the quasispecies problem.

  20. Do resources or natural enemies drive bee population dynamics in fragmented habitats?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Schiele, Susanne

    2008-05-01

    The relative importance of bottom-up or top-down forces has been mainly studied for herbivores but rarely for pollinators. Habitat fragmentation might change driving forces of population dynamics by reducing the area of resource-providing habitats, disrupting habitat connectivity, and affecting natural enemies more than their host species. We studied spatial and temporal population dynamics of the solitary bee Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) in 30 fragmented orchard meadows ranging in size from 0.08 to 5.8 ha in an agricultural landscape in central Germany. From 1998 to 2003, we monitored local bee population size, rate of parasitism, and rate of larval and pupal mortality in reed trap nests as an accessible and standardized nesting resource. Experimentally enhanced nest site availability resulted in a steady increase of mean local population size from 80 to 2740 brood cells between 1998 and 2002. Population size and species richness of natural enemies increased with habitat area, whereas rate of parasitism and mortality only varied among years. Inverse density-dependent parasitism in three study years with highest population size suggests rather destabilizing instead of regulating effects of top-down forces. Accordingly, an analysis of independent time series showed on average a negative impact of population size on population growth rates but provides no support for top-down regulation by natural enemies. We conclude that population dynamics of O. rufa are mainly driven by bottom-up forces, primarily nest site availability.

  1. Reproductive success is predicted by social dynamics and kinship in managed animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Saul J; Eyre, Simon; Kimble, Catherine H; Arcos-Burgos, Mauricio; Hogg, Carolyn; Easteal, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Kin and group interactions are important determinants of reproductive success in many species. Their optimization could, therefore, potentially improve the productivity and breeding success of managed populations used for agricultural and conservation purposes. Here we demonstrate this potential using a novel approach to measure and predict the effect of kin and group dynamics on reproductive output in a well-known species, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Variation in social dynamics predicts 30% of the individual variation in reproductive success of this species in managed populations, and accurately forecasts reproductive output at least two years into the future. Optimization of social dynamics in captive meerkat populations doubles their projected reproductive output. These results demonstrate the utility of a quantitative approach to breeding programs informed by social and kinship dynamics. They suggest that this approach has great potential for improvements in the management of social endangered and agricultural species.

  2. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  3. Population synthesis of planet formation using a torque formula with dynamic effects

    CERN Document Server

    Sasaki, Takanori

    2016-01-01

    Population synthesis studies into planet formation have suggested that distributions consistent with observations can only be reproduced if the actual Type I migration timescale is at least an order of magnitude longer than that deduced from linear theories. Although past studies considered the effect of the Type I migration of protoplanetary embryos, in most cases they used a conventional formula based on static torques in isothermal disks, and employed a reduction factor to account for uncertainty in the mechanism details. However, in addition to static torques, a migrating planet experiences dynamic torques that are proportional to the migration rate. These dynamic torques can impact on planet migration and predicted planetary populations. In this study, we derived a new torque formula for Type I migration by taking into account dynamic corrections. This formula was used to perform population synthesis simulations with and without the effect of dynamic torques. In many cases, inward migration was slowed si...

  4. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Role of seasonality on predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Dorian; Harrington, Heather A; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2016-05-07

    The role of seasonality on predator-prey interactions in the presence of a resource subsidy is examined using a system of non-autonomous ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The problem is motivated by the Arctic, inhabited by the ecological system of arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carrion (subsidy). We construct two nonlinear, nonautonomous systems of ODEs named the Primary Model, and the n-Patch Model. The Primary Model considers spatial factors implicitly, and the n-Patch Model considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We establish the boundedness of the dynamics, as well as the necessity of sufficiently nutritional food for the survival of the predator. We investigate the importance of including the resource subsidy explicitly in the model, and the importance of accounting for predator mortality during migration. We find a variety of non-equilibrium dynamics for both systems, obtaining both limit cycles and chaotic oscillations. We were then able to discuss relevant implications for biologically interesting predator-prey systems including subsidy under seasonal effects. Notably, we can observe the extinction or persistence of a species when the corresponding autonomous system might predict the opposite.

  6. Trypanosoma cruzi population dynamics in the Central Ecuadorian Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costales, Jaime A; Jara-Palacios, Miguel A; Llewellyn, Martin S; Messenger, Louisa A; Ocaña-Mayorga, Sofía; Villacís, Anita G; Tibayrenc, Michel; Grijalva, Mario J

    2015-11-01

    Chagas disease is the most important parasitic disease in Latin America. The causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, displays high genetic diversity and circulates in complex transmission cycles among domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic environments. In Ecuador, Rhodnius ecuadoriensis is known to be the major vector species implicated in T. cruzi transmission. However, across vast areas of Ecuador, little is known about T. cruzi genetic diversity in relation to different parasite transmission scenarios. Fifty-eight T. cruzi stocks from the central Ecuadorian coast, most of them derived from R. ecuadoriensis, were included in the study. All of them were genotyped as T. cruzi discrete typing unit I (DTU TcI). Analysis of 23 polymorphic microsatellite loci through neighbor joining and discriminant analysis of principal components yielded broadly congruent results and indicate genetic subdivision between sylvatic and peridomestic transmission cycles. However, both analyses also suggest that any barriers are imperfect and significant gene flow between parasite subpopulations in different habitats exists. Also consistent with moderate partition and residual gene flow between subpopulations, the fixation index (FST) was significant, but of low magnitude. Finally, the lack of private alleles in the domestic/peridomestic transmission cycle suggests the sylvatic strains constitute the ancestral population. The T. cruzi population in the central Ecuadorian coast shows moderate tendency to subdivision according to transmission cycle. However, connectivity between cycles exists and the sylvatic T. cruzi population harbored by R. ecuadoriensis vectors appears to constitute a source from which the parasite invades human domiciles and their surroundings in this region. We discuss the implications these findings have for the planning, implementation and evaluation of local Chagas disease control interventions.

  7. Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

    2010-01-01

    The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data

  8. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005)] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  9. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  10. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  11. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  12. Dynamics of chemically stressed populations: the deduction of population consequences from effects on individuals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kooijman, S.A.; Metz, J.A.

    1984-06-01

    A general, simple, and explicit model for the age-dependent growth and reproduction of individuals as a function of food supply is presented. The model assumes a Holling-type functional response coupled with a von Bertalanffy body growth law, a fixed ratio between the energy utilized for reproduction and respiration, and a juvenile stage that ends as soon as the animal attains a sufficient weight. This model is shown to fit the available data on the development of Daphnia magna quite well. The model is used as a basis for studying the effects of chemicals on population growth rate, given the effects on individuals. Effects on individual growth and reproduction are reflected in a concentration-dependent relative reduction of the population growth rate. Effects on feeding rate, digestion, basal metabolism, and survival work out much more dramatically at low natural population growth rates. This already follows from a much simpler model that assumes age-independent reproduction, as exemplified to a good approximation by the rotifer Brachionus rubens. The theoretical results are supplemented with experimental evidence, implying that the stress on a population at a certain concentration of a chemical may indeed be strongly dependent on the feeding state of that population.

  13. Effects of infection on honey bee population dynamics: a model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt I Betti

    Full Text Available We propose a model that combines the dynamics of the spread of disease within a bee colony with the underlying demographic dynamics of the colony to determine the ultimate fate of the colony under different scenarios. The model suggests that key factors in the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of an infection are the rate of transmission of the infection and the disease-induced death rate. An increase in the disease-induced death rate, which can be thought of as an increase in the severity of the disease, may actually help the colony overcome the disease and survive through winter. By contrast, an increase in the transmission rate, which means that bees are being infected at an earlier age, has a drastic deleterious effect. Another important finding relates to the timing of infection in relation to the onset of winter, indicating that in a time interval of approximately 20 days before the onset of winter the colony is most affected by the onset of infection. The results suggest further that the age of recruitment of hive bees to foraging duties is a good early marker for the survival or collapse of a honey bee colony in the face of infection, which is consistent with experimental evidence but the model provides insight into the underlying mechanisms. The most important result of the study is a clear distinction between an exposure of the honey bee colony to an environmental hazard such as pesticides or insecticides, or an exposure to an infectious disease. The results indicate unequivocally that in the scenarios that we have examined, and perhaps more generally, an infectious disease is far more hazardous to the survival of a bee colony than an environmental hazard that causes an equal death rate in foraging bees.

  14. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob;

    was not jeopardized even when disturbances were simulated to have a relatively large and persistent effect on the behavior of individual animals. Porpoises were simulated to move away from noisy objects, preventing them from returning to the known food patches in that area. This resulted in decreasing energy reserves...... to disturbances by moving away are prevented from accessing the food in the disturbed areas and may also be prevented from dispersing among areas where food is available at different times of the year. Such disturbance effects may play a particularly large role for marine mammals that live in environments...... realistic movement patterns in scenarios where animals were not exposed to noise. Results/Conclusions The main results of the study were that the effects of disturbances were highly dependent on how fast the food recovered after being eaten, but that the long-term survival of the population...

  15. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005), 10.1016/j.physa.2004.07.005] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  16. Population dynamics of the Kaminuriak caribou herd, 1968 - 1985

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Heard

    1986-06-01

    Full Text Available The Kaminuraik caribou herd apparently declined from about 120 000 animals in 1950 to 63 000 in 1968. Beginning in 1968 documentation of herd trend was based on the estimate of the number of breeding (pregnant and post-partum females on the calving ground during the birth peak. It appeared as if we understood the basic population processes responsible for the decline when we correctly predicted a drop from 14 800 breeding females in 1977 to 13 000 in 1980. However a three-fold increase, to 41 000 breeding females in 1982, and continued growth thereafter, was unanticipated. Most of that increase must have resulted from an immigration of cows to the herd's traditional calving ground around Kaminuriak Lake, although increased birth rates, and increased survival rates also contributed to herd growth. Immigrant cows probably came from the northeastern mainland of the NWT

  17. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models....... The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates...

  18. Patient and provider population dynamics analysis in a large dental organization: a tool for management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Charles W

    2010-12-01

    Health care managers are faced with difficult decisions on a daily basis. Some of those issues involve productivity. Statistical analyses of patient and provider population dynamics offer an important tool with which to base decisions. In this study, two representative clinics out of seven were selected. The patient and provider populations were subjected to the means square successive difference test and a linear regression test. The results differed from management perceptions. Provider decision processes in clinic A were more efficient than those in clinic B. There was no relationship between provider presence and the patient population in both clinics. The patient populations in both clinics displayed random arrivals. Specific recommendations to management from the results of this study include: billeting decisions, appointing process decisions, emergency policies, and the need for a focused marketing plan. There are many useful tools with which to study population dynamics. This is one example.

  19. Population Dynamics and Ecology of Arcobacter in Sewage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny C Fisher

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Arcobacter species are highly abundant in sewage where they often comprise approximately 5-11% of the bacterial community. Oligotyping of sequences amplified from the V4V5 region of the 16S rRNA gene revealed Arcobacter populations from different cities were similar and dominated by one to three members, with extremely high microdiversity in the minor members. Overall, nine subgroups within the Arcobacter genus accounted for >80% of the total Arcobacter sequences in all samples analyzed. The distribution of oligotypes varied by both sample site and temperature, with samples from the same site generally being more similar to each other than other sites. Seven oligotypes matched with 100% identity to characterized Arcobacter species, but the remaining 19 abundant oligotypes appear to be unknown species. Sequences representing the two most abundant oligotypes matched exactly to the type strains for A. cryaerophilus group 1B (CCUG 17802 and group 1A (CCUG17801, respectively. Oligotype 1 showed generally lower relative abundance in colder samples and higher relative abundance in warmer samples; the converse was true for Oligotype 2. Ten other oligotypes had significant positive or negative correlations between temperature and proportion in samples as well. The oligotype that corresponded to A. butzleri, the Arcobacter species most commonly isolated by culturing in sewage studies, was only the eleventh most abundant oligotype. This work suggests that Arcobacter populations occupy unique niches in sewer infrastructure and are modulated by temperature. Furthermore, current culturing methods used for identification of Arcobacter fail to identify some abundant members of the community and may underestimate the presence of species with affinities for growth at lower temperatures. Understanding the ecological factors that affect the survival and growth of Arcobacter spp. in sewer infrastructure may better inform the risks associated with these emerging

  20. Spatially explicit modeling of habitat dynamics and fish population persistence in an intermittent lowland stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, George L W; Bond, Nicholas R

    2009-04-01

    In temperate and arid climate zones many streams and rivers flow intermittently, seasonally contracting to a sequence of isolated pools or waterholes over the dry period, before reconnecting in the wetter parts of the year. This seasonal drying process is central to our understanding of the population dynamics of aquatic organisms such as fish and invertebrates in these systems. However, there is a dearth of empirical data on the temporal dynamics of such populations. We describe a spatially explicit individual-based model (SEIBM) of fish population dynamics in such systems, which we use to explore the long-term population viability of the carp gudgeon Hypseleotris spp. in a lowland stream in southeastern Australia. We explicitly consider the impacts of interannual variability in stream flow, for example, due to drought, on habitat availability and hence population persistence. Our results support observations that these populations are naturally highly variable, with simulated fish population sizes typically varying over four orders of magnitude within a 50-year simulation run. The most sensitive parameters in the model relate to the amount of water (habitat) in the system: annual rainfall, seepage loss from the pools, and the carrying capacity (number of individuals per cubic meter) of the pools as they dry down. It seems likely that temporal source sink dynamics allow the fish populations to persist in these systems, with good years (high rainfall and brief cease-to-flow [CTF] periods) buffering against periods of drought. In dry years during which the stream may contract to very low numbers of pools, each of these persistent pools becomes crucial for the persistence of the population in the system. Climate change projections for this area suggest decreases in rainfall and increased incidence of drought; under these environmental conditions the long-term persistence of these fish populations is uncertain.

  1. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  2. Variation in foraging success among predators and its implications for population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okuyama, Toshinori

    2017-01-01

    The effects of the expected predation rate on population dynamics have been studied intensively, but little is known about the effects of predation rate variability (i.e., predator individuals having variable foraging success) on population dynamics. In this study, variation in foraging success among predators was quantified by observing the predation of the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata on the cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the laboratory. A population model was then developed, and the effect of foraging variability on predator-prey dynamics was examined by incorporating levels of variation comparable to those quantified in the experiment. The variability in the foraging success among spiders was greater than would be expected by chance (i.e., the random allocation of prey to predators). The foraging variation was density-dependent; it became higher as the predator density increased. A population model that incorporates foraging variation shows that the variation influences population dynamics by affecting the numerical response of predators. In particular, the variation induces negative density-dependent effects among predators and stabilizes predator-prey dynamics.

  3. Control mechanisms on the ctenophore (Mnemiopsis Leidyi) population dynamics: a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihoglu, Baris; Fach, Bettina; Oguz, Temel

    2010-05-01

    A comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms that control the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi blooms in the Black Sea is studied with a zero-dimensional population based model. The stage resolving model considers detailed weight and population growth dynamics under four stages of model-ctenophore. The model is able to represent consistent development patterns, while reflecting the physiological complexity of a population of Mnemiopsis leidyi. Model is used to analyse the influence of temperature and food variability on Mnemiopsis leidyi reproduction and outburst. Model results demonstrated how food sources regulated the growth rates under changing temperatures. Model results suggest that different nutritonal requirement of each stage can be critical for population growth.

  4. Population dynamics of intraguild predation in a lattice gas system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanshi; Wu, Hong

    2015-01-01

    In the system of intraguild predation (IGP) we are concerned with, species that are in a predator-prey relationship, also compete for shared resources (space or food). While several models have been established to characterize IGP, mechanisms by which IG prey and IG predator can coexist in IGP systems with spatial competition, have not been shown. This paper considers an IGP model, which is derived from reactions on lattice and has a form similar to that of Lotka-Volterra equations. Dynamics of the model demonstrate properties of IGP and mechanisms by which the IGP leads to coexistence of species and occurrence of alternative states. Intermediate predation is shown to lead to persistence of the predator, while extremely big predation can lead to extinction of one/both species and extremely small predation can lead to extinction of the predator. Numerical computations confirm and extend our results. While empirical observations typically exhibit coexistence of IG predator and IG prey, theoretical analysis in this work demonstrates exact conditions under which this coexistence can occur. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horreo, Jose Luis; Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto; Fitze, Patrick S

    2016-05-01

    While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.

  6. Complex transient dynamics of stage-structured populations in response to environmental changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Thomas M; Ryabov, Alexei; Blasius, Bernd; Weithoff, Guntram; Gaedke, Ursula

    2013-07-01

    Stage structures of populations can have a profound influence on their dynamics. However, not much is known about the transient dynamics that follow a disturbance in such systems. Here we combined chemostat experiments with dynamical modeling to study the response of the phytoplankton species Chlorella vulgaris to press perturbations. From an initially stable steady state, we altered either the concentration or dilution rate of a growth-limiting resource. This disturbance induced a complex transient response-characterized by the possible onset of oscillations-before population numbers relaxed to a new steady state. Thus, cell numbers could initially change in the opposite direction of the long-term change. We present quantitative indexes to characterize the transients and to show that the dynamic response is dependent on the degree of synchronization among life stages, which itself depends on the state of the population before perturbation. That is, we show how identical future steady states can be approached via different transients depending on the initial population structure. Our experimental results are supported by a size-structured model that accounts for interplay between cell-cycle and population-level processes and that includes resource-dependent variability in cell size. Our results should be relevant to other populations with a stage structure including organisms of higher order.

  7. The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, William A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

    2017-01-01

    Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population’s capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

  8. Population dynamics of the pioneer population of Daphnia parvula, Fordyce during the invasion of Lake Candia (Northern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiorenza MARGARITORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the 1970s Daphnia parvula, Fordyce, originally distributed in the New World, has been invading Europe. In Italy D. parvula first appeared in the shallow, eutrophic Lake Candia (Piedmont, Northern Italy during September 2002. Although several studies have documented D. parvula dispersal in European habitats, little is known about the life cycle and ecology of this invader in its new habitats. Invasion success depends on the ability of the invader population to perform well in the new ecosystem, which in turn results from the interaction between the characteristics of the invader and those of the invaded environment and its resident community. Early detection of D. parvula in the intensively studied Lake Candia offered an excellent opportunity to study the performance of the pioneer population and to document the early phases of invasion. Following the dynamics of the pioneer D. parvula population provided evidence of a high level of gamogenetic reproduction during most periods of population development. The production of males started at the onset of population growth prior to ephippia formation. The sex ratio ranged from 0.1 to 0.33 males per female with a maximum in October when males accounted for up to 24% of the total population density. The percentage of ephippia (free ephippia + ephippial females out of the total population density ranged from 3 to 23%. The large pool of resting eggs produced by the pioneer population of D. parvula in Lake Candia might reflect a strategy for increasing the probability of survival and establishment in the new environment.

  9. Relative importance of natural disturbances and habitat degradation on snail kite population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Oli, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Natural disturbances and habitat degradation are major factors influencing the dynamics and persistence of many wildlife populations, yet few large-scale studies have explored the relative influence of these factors on the dynamics and persistence of animal populations. We used longterm demographic data and matrix population models to examine the potential effects of habitat degradation and natural disturbances on the dynamics of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA. We found that estimates of stochastic population growth rate were low (0.90). Population growth rate (??) during the first half or our study period (1992 to 1998) was substantially greater than during the second half (1999 to 2005). These 2 periods were characterized by contrasting hydrological conditions. Although ?? was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, the analysis of life table response experiments revealed that a reduction in fertility of kites accounted for >80% of the observed decline in population growth rate. We examined the possibility that the reduction in ?? was caused by (1) habitat degradation due to management, (2) an increase in frequency of moderate drying events in recent years, and (3) both habitat degradation and an increase in frequency of moderate drying events. Our results suggest that both factors could potentially contribute to a large decrease in population growth rate. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering short- and long-term effects of disturbances when modeling population dynamics. Indeed, focusing exclusively on one type of effect may be misleading to both our understanding of the ecological dynamics of the system and to management. The relevance of our results to management is heightened because the snail kite has been selected as a key performance measure of one of the most ambitious ecosystem restoration projects ever undertaken. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

  10. The influence of synaptic weight distribution on neuronal population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramakrishnan Iyer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The manner in which different distributions of synaptic weights onto cortical neurons shape their spiking activity remains open. To characterize a homogeneous neuronal population, we use the master equation for generalized leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with shot-noise synapses. We develop fast semi-analytic numerical methods to solve this equation for either current or conductance synapses, with and without synaptic depression. We show that its solutions match simulations of equivalent neuronal networks better than those of the Fokker-Planck equation and we compute bounds on the network response to non-instantaneous synapses. We apply these methods to study different synaptic weight distributions in feed-forward networks. We characterize the synaptic amplitude distributions using a set of measures, called tail weight numbers, designed to quantify the preponderance of very strong synapses. Even if synaptic amplitude distributions are equated for both the total current and average synaptic weight, distributions with sparse but strong synapses produce higher responses for small inputs, leading to a larger operating range. Furthermore, despite their small number, such synapses enable the network to respond faster and with more stability in the face of external fluctuations.

  11. 'Wildlife 2001: Populations', an International Conference on Population Dynamics and Management of Vertebrates

    CERN Document Server

    Barrett, Reginald

    1992-01-01

    In 1984, a conference called Wildlife 2000: Modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates, was held at Stanford Sierra Camp at Fallen Leaf Lake in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. The conference was well-received, and the published volume (Verner, J. , M. L. Morrison, and C. J. Ralph, editors. 1986. Wildlife 2000: modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates, University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, Wisconsin, USA) proved to be a landmark publication that received a book award by The Wildlife Society. Wildlife 2001: populations was a followup conference with emphasis on the other major biological field of wildlife conservation and management, populations. It was held on July 29-31, 1991, at the Oakland Airport Hilton Hotel in Oakland, California, in accordance with our intent that this conference have a much stronger international representation than did Wildlife 2000. The goal of the conference was to bring together an international group of specialists to address the state ...

  12. Demographic characteristics of circumpolar caribou populations: ecotypes, ecological constraints, releases, and population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Mallory, F.F.; T.L. Hillis

    1998-01-01

    Data on the status of caribou {Rangifer tarandus) herds throughout the circumpolar region during the last 20 years were obtained from the literature and personal communication with researchers. Information was analysed in relation to ecotype (insular, montane, barren-ground, and woodland/forest), population status (increasing, stable, decreasing), herd size, human impact, and temporal change in number. The data support the conclusions (1) that each ecotype is exposed to different ecological c...

  13. Population dynamics of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in Shanghai, China: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gonorrhea is a major sexually transmitted disease (STD in many countries worldwide. The emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance has complicated efforts to control and treat this disease. We report the first study of the evolutionary processes acting on transmission dynamics of a resistant gonococcal population from Shanghai, China. We compare these findings with our previous study of the evolution of a fluoroquinolone sensitive gonococcal population from Baltimore, MD. Methods Ninety six gonococcal samples were collected from male patients in Shanghai, China. All samples were fluoroquinolone resistant. Seven MLST housekeeping genes, two fluoroquinolone resistance genes (gyrA and parC and the porB gene were sequenced and subjected to population genetic and evolutionary analyses. We estimated genetic diversity, recombination, growth, and selective pressure. The evolutionary history and population dynamics of the Shanghai population were also inferred and compared with that observed in a fluoroquinolone sensitive gonococcal population from Baltimore. Results For both populations, mutation plays a larger role than recombination in the evolution of the porB gene, whereas the latter seems to be the main force driving the evolution of housekeeping and fluoroquinolone resistance genes. In both populations there was evidence for positively selected sites in all genes analyzed. The phylogenetic analyses showed no temporal clustering in the Shanghai gonococcal population, nor did we detect shared allelic profiles between the Shanghai and the Baltimore populations. Past population dynamics of gonococcal strains from Shanghai showed a rising relative effective population size (Ne in MLST genes with a declining relative Ne for gyrA and parC, whereas among sensitive strains from Baltimore we previously observed concordance among these genes. In both Shanghai and Baltimore, the past population dynamics of gonococcal strains tracked changes

  14. Mesola red deer: physical characteristics, population dynamics and conservation perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Mattioli

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The biometry, demography and genetics of red deer Cervus elaphus of Mesola Wood (NE Italy, are presented and discussed in relation to the conservation of this population. Modest body size, low stature, oversimplified antlers and a low reproductive performance characterise red deer from Mesola Wood. The mitochondrial genome showed a private haplotype, different from other red deer in Italy and central Europe. The uniqueness of this nucleus and its biogeographic importance make a long-term conservation plan particularly urgent. Management measures such as fallow deer reduction, winter feeding and pasture mowing were tested, giving promising results. The physical condition of the animals improved, calf and adult mortality declined, and a few cases of antlers with bez tine or crown were reported in this study after four decades. Riassunto Il Cervo della Mesola: caratteristiche fisiche, dinamica di popolazione e prospettive di conservazione La biometria, la demografia e la genetica del cervo Cervus elaphus del Gran Bosco della Mesola (Italia nord-orientale, vengono presentate e discusse in relazione alla salvaguardia di questa popolazione. Il cervo della Mesola risulta caratterizzato dalle modeste dimensioni corporee, dalla struttura semplificata dei palchi e da un basso rendimento riproduttivo. L'analisi del genoma mitocondriale ha evidenziato un aplotipo privato, diverso da quello degli altri cervi italiani e centroeuropei. L'unicità di questo nucleo e la sua importanza biogeografica rendono particolarmente urgente un piano di conservazione a lungo termine. Sono stati verificati interventi gestionali quali la riduzione numerica dei daini, il foraggiamento invernale e lo sfalcio delle superfici a pascolo, con risultati promettenti. Le condizioni fisiche degli animali sono migliorate, la mortalità tra i piccoli e gli adulti è diminuita, e sono stati registrati alcuni

  15. Langevin Formalism as the Basis for the Unification of Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vladar, Harold P.

    2005-03-01

    We are presenting a simple reformulation to population dynamics that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. The model shows that even when a population is density-dependent the dynamics of its growth rate does not depend explicitly neither on population size nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth rate is uncoupled from the population size equation. The model has only two parameters: a Malthusian parameter ρ and an interaction coefficient θ. Distinct values of these parameters reproduce the family of θ-logistics, the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. Stochastic perturbations to the Malthusian parameter leads to a Langevin form of stochastic differential equation consisting of a family of cubic potentials perturbed with multiplicative noise. Using these equtions, we derive the stationary Fokker Plank distribution which which shows that in the stationary dynamics, density dependent populations fluctuate around a mean size that is shifted from the carrying capacity proportionally to the noise intensity. We also study which kinds of populations are susceptible to noise induced transitions.

  16. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

  17. A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

    2011-01-01

    arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature...... of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient...... population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor...

  18. Simulation of mosquitoes population dynamic based on rainfall and average daily temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widayani, H.; Seprianus, Nuraini, N.; Arum, J.

    2014-02-01

    This paper proposed rainfall and average daily temperature approximation functions using least square method with trigonometry polynomial. Error value from this method is better than Fast Fourier Transform method. This approximation is used to accommodate climatic factors into deterministic model of mosquitoes population by constructing a carrying capacity function which contains rainfall and average daily temperature functions. We develop a mathematical model for mosquitoes population dynamic which formulated by Yang et al (2010) with dynamic parameter of a daily rainfall as well as temperature on that model. Two fixed points, trivial and non-trivial, are obtained when constant entomological parameters assumed. Basic offspring number, Q0 as mosquitoes reproduction parameter is constructed. Non-trivial fixed point is stable if and only if Q0 > 1. Numerical simulation shown the dynamics of mosquitoes population significantly affected by rainfall and average daily temperature function.

  19. Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthukumar V Bagavathiannan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba, one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production

  20. Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

    2017-01-01

    Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population

  1. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yunger, John A.; /Northern Illinois U. /Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus Pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers wer 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in dits. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for P. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on P. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. Pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  2. Population genetic structure and historical population dynamics of the South American sea lion, Otaria flavescens, in north-central Patagonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Túnez, Juan I; Cappozzo, Humberto L; Nardelli, Maximiliano; Cassini, Marcelo H

    2010-08-01

    The north-central Patagonian coast is the sea lions most abundant area in Argentina. As occurs along the entire Atlantic coast, the distribution of breeding colonies at this smaller geographical scale is also patchy, showing at least three areas with breeding activity. We study the genetic structure and historical population dynamics of the species in five colonies in this area, analysing a 508 base-pair segment of the D-loop control region. Otaria flavescens showed 10 haplotypes with 12 polymorphic sites. The genealogical relationship between haplotypes revealed a shallow pattern of phylogeographic structure. The analysis of molecular variance showed significant differences between colonies, however, pairwise comparisons only indicate significant differences between a pair of colonies belonging to different breeding areas. The pattern of haplotype differentiation and the mismatch distribution analysis suggest a possible bottleneck that would have occurred 64,000 years ago, followed by a demographic expansion of the three southernmost colonies. Thus, the historical population dynamics of O. flavescens in north-central Patagonia appears to be closely related with the dynamics of the Late Pleistocene glaciations.

  3. Catalysis of Protein Folding by Chaperones Accelerates Evolutionary Dynamics in Adapting Cell Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Murat Cetinbaş; Shakhnovich, Eugene I.

    2013-01-01

    Although molecular chaperones are essential components of protein homeostatic machinery, their mechanism of action and impact on adaptation and evolutionary dynamics remain controversial. Here we developed a physics-based ab initio multi-scale model of a living cell for population dynamics simulations to elucidate the effect of chaperones on adaptive evolution. The 6-loci genomes of model cells encode model proteins, whose folding and interactions in cellular milieu can be evaluated exactly f...

  4. Dynamics and recovery of a sediment-exposed Chironomus riparius population: A modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diepens, Noël J; Beltman, Wim H J; Koelmans, Albert A; Van den Brink, Paul J; Baveco, Johannes M

    2016-06-01

    Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term.

  5. Improving Bayesian population dynamics inference: a coalescent-based model for multiple loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Mandev S; Lemey, Philippe; Faria, Nuno R; Rambaut, Andrew; Shapiro, Beth; Suchard, Marc A

    2013-03-01

    Effective population size is fundamental in population genetics and characterizes genetic diversity. To infer past population dynamics from molecular sequence data, coalescent-based models have been developed for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of effective population size over time. Among the most successful is a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model for a single gene locus. Here, we present a generalization of the GMRF model that allows for the analysis of multilocus sequence data. Using simulated data, we demonstrate the improved performance of our method to recover true population trajectories and the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA). We analyze a multilocus alignment of HIV-1 CRF02_AG gene sequences sampled from Cameroon. Our results are consistent with HIV prevalence data and uncover some aspects of the population history that go undetected in Bayesian parametric estimation. Finally, we recover an older and more reconcilable TMRCA for a classic ancient DNA data set.

  6. Strong dispersal in a parasitoid wasp overwhelms habitat fragmentation and host population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couchoux, C; Seppä, P; van Nouhuys, S

    2016-07-01

    The population dynamics of a parasite depend on species traits, host dynamics and the environment. Those dynamics are reflected in the genetic structure of the population. Habitat fragmentation has a greater impact on parasites than on their hosts because resource distribution is increasingly fragmented for species at higher trophic levels. This could lead to either more or less genetic structure than the host, depending on the relative dispersal rates of species. We examined the spatial genetic structure of the parasitoid wasp Hyposoter horticola, and how it was influenced by dispersal, host population dynamics and habitat fragmentation. The host, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, lives as a metapopulation in a fragmented landscape in the Åland Islands, Finland. We collected wasps throughout the 50 by 70 km archipelago and determined the genetic diversity, spatial population structure and genetic differentiation using 14 neutral DNA microsatellite loci. We compared the genetic structure of the wasp with that of the host butterfly using published genetic data collected over the shared landscape. Using maternity assignment, we also identified full-siblings among the sampled parasitoids to estimate the dispersal range of individual females. We found that because the parasitoid is dispersive, it has low genetic structure, is not very sensitive to habitat fragmentation and has less spatial genetic structure than its butterfly host. The wasp is sensitive to regional rather than local host dynamics, and there is a geographic mosaic landscape for antagonistic co-evolution of host resistance and parasite virulence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Population Dynamics and the Optical Absorption in Hybrid Metal Nanoparticle - Semiconductor Quantum dot Nanosystem

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Nam-Chol; Ko, Myong-Chol; So, Guang Hyok; Kim, Il-Guang

    2015-01-01

    We studied theoretically the population dynamics and the absorption spectrum of hybrid nanosystem consisted of a matal nanoparticle (MNP) and a semiconductor quantum dot(SQD). We investigated the exciton-plasmon coupling effects on the population dynamics and the absorption properties of the nanostructure. Our results show that the nonlinear optical response of the hybrid nanosystem can be greatly enhanced or depressed due to the exciton-plasmon couplings. The results obtained here may have the potential applications of nanoscale optical devices such as optical switches and quantum devices such as a single photon transistor.

  8. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...

  9. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

  10. Population dynamics of the brown alga Himanthalia elongata under harvesting pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagnol, Doriane; Michel, Renaud; Davoult, Dominique

    2016-06-01

    Through experimental harvesting, followed by a 12-month monitoring of demographic attributes, we tested the influence of harvesting on the population dynamics of Himanthalia elongata. We further explore the data to test the hypothesis that the canopy would exert a negative effect on the other developmental stages (intraspecific competition) throughout the recovery cycle of the population. This showed that the H. elongata canopy plays a marked seasonal role not by precluding the presence of other developmental stages but by delaying or preventing their growth and development. The removal of the canopy facilitates the transition from one developmental stage to another, eventually permitting a fast recovery of size structure in the population. This study allows us to integrate population dynamics and intraspecific relationships in our understanding of macroalgal recovery patterns.

  11. An Algorithm for the Stochastic Simulation of Gene Expression and Heterogeneous Population Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Charlebois, Daniel A; Fraser, Dawn; Kaern, Mads

    2011-01-01

    We present an algorithm for the stochastic simulation of gene expression and heterogeneous population dynamics. The algorithm combines an exact method to simulate molecular-level fluctuations in single cells and a constant-number Monte Carlo method to simulate time-dependent statistical characteristics of growing cell populations. To benchmark performance, we compare simulation results with steadystate and time-dependent analytical solutions for several scenarios, including steadystate and time-dependent gene expression, and the effects on population heterogeneity of cell growth, division, and DNA replication. This comparison demonstrates that the algorithm provides an efficient and accurate approach to simulate how complex biological features influence gene expression. We also use the algorithm to model gene expression dynamics within "bet-hedging" cell populations during their adaption to environmental stress. These simulations indicate that the algorithm provides a framework suitable for simulating and ana...

  12. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (λ) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 μg L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on λ was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants.

  13. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-11-03

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  14. Locally dispersing populations in heterogeneous dynamic landscapes with spatiotemporal correlations. I. Block disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebeler, David E; Houle, Jennifer; Drummond, Frank; Bilodeau, Peter; Merckens, Jeffery

    2016-10-21

    Locally dispersing populations are generally favorably affected by increasing the scale of habitat heterogeneity because they can exploit contiguous patches of suitable habitat. Increasing the spatial scale of landscape disturbances (such as by applying a pesticide to control an unwanted species) drives down population density because of reasons including dispersal-limited recolonization and the resulting increase in temporal variability. Here, we examine how population density changes as the spatial scale of landscape disturbance increases: does it increase due to increases in spatial correlations in landscape habitat type, or does it decrease due to the various spatial and temporal effects of larger-scale disturbances? We use simulations, mean field approximations, pair approximations, landscape-improved pair approximations (LIPA), and block probabilities to investigate a model of a locally dispersing species on a dynamic landscape with spatiotemporally structured heterogeneous habitat. Pesticide is applied at a given spatial scale, leaving habitat unsuitable for some time before dissipating and allowing the habitat to revert to a suitable state. We found that increasing the spatial scale of disturbances (while keeping the overall disturbance rate fixed) can increase population density, but generally only when landscape turnover is slow relative to population dynamics and when the population is somewhat close to its extinction threshold. Applying control measures at larger spatial scales may allow them to be more effective with the same overall treatment rate. The optimal spatial strategy for applying disturbances depends on both habitat availability as well as the turnover rate of the control measure being used. For the large-scale habitat dynamics in our model, it is possible to analytically calculate spatial correlations in habitat types over arbitrary scales. However, including exact habitat correlations at the triplet scale but approximating population

  15. Population dynamics of the brown alga Himanthalia elongata under harvesting pressure

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    International audience; Through experimental harvesting, followed by a 12-month monitoring of demographic attributes, we tested the influence of harvesting on the population dynamics of Himanthalia elongata. We further explore the data to test the hypothesis that the canopy would exert a negative effect on the other developmental stages (intraspecific competition) throughout the recovery cycle of the population. This showed that the H. elongata canopy plays a marked seasonal role not by precl...

  16. Evolutionary dynamics of finite populations in games with polymorphic fitness equilibria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficici, Sevan G; Pollack, Jordan B

    2007-08-07

    The hawk-dove (HD) game, as defined by Maynard Smith [1982. Evolution and the Theory of Games. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge], allows for a polymorphic fitness equilibrium (PFE) to exist between its two pure strategies; this polymorphism is the attractor of the standard replicator dynamics [Taylor, P.D., Jonker, L., 1978. Evolutionarily stable strategies and game dynamics. Math. Biosci. 40, 145-156; Hofbauer, J., Sigmund, K., 1998. Evolutionary Games and Population Dynamics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge] operating on an infinite population of pure-strategists. Here, we consider stochastic replicator dynamics, operating on a finite population of pure-strategists playing games similar to HD; in particular, we examine the transient behavior of the system, before it enters an absorbing state due to sampling error. Though stochastic replication prevents the population from fixing onto the PFE, selection always favors the under-represented strategy. Thus, we may naively expect that the mean population state (of the pre-absorption transient) will correspond to the PFE. The empirical results of Fogel et al. [1997. On the instability of evolutionary stable states. BioSystems 44, 135-152] show that the mean population state, in fact, deviates from the PFE with statistical significance. We provide theoretical results that explain their observations. We show that such deviation away from the PFE occurs when the selection pressures that surround the fitness-equilibrium point are asymmetric. Further, we analyze a Markov model to prove that a finite population will generate a distribution over population states that equilibrates selection-pressure asymmetry; the mean of this distribution is generally not the fitness-equilibrium state.

  17. Birth, growth and death as structuring tools in bacterial population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Lavric, Vasile; Graham, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract A new model is presented that describes microbial population dynamics that emerge from complex interactions among birth, growth and death as oriented, discrete events. Specifically, birth and death act as structuring operators for individual organisms within the population, which become synchronised as age clusters (called cell-generations that are structured in age-classes) that are born at the same time and die in concert; a pattern very consistent with recent experiment...

  18. A shift from exploitation to interference competition with increasing density affects population and community dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Holdridge, Erica M.; Cuellar‐Gempeler, Catalina; terHorst, Casey P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Intraspecific competition influences population and community dynamics and occurs via two mechanisms. Exploitative competition is an indirect effect that occurs through use of a shared resource and depends on resource availability. Interference competition occurs by obstructing access to a resource and may not depend on resource availability. Our study tested whether the strength of interference competition changes with protozoa population density. We grew experimental microcosms of ...

  19. Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

    OpenAIRE

    Ulbrich, K.; Seidelmann, K.

    2001-01-01

    To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L) (Apoideae: Megachilidae) and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habi...

  20. Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

    2013-12-01

    Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos.

  1. Spatial and spatiotemporal variation in metapopulation structure affects population dynamics in a passively dispersing arthropod.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Roissart, Annelies; Wang, Shaopeng; Bonte, Dries

    2015-11-01

    The spatial and temporal variation in the availability of suitable habitat within metapopulations determines colonization-extinction events, regulates local population sizes and eventually affects local population and metapopulation stability. Insights into the impact of such a spatiotemporal variation on the local population and metapopulation dynamics are principally derived from classical metapopulation theory and have not been experimentally validated. By manipulating spatial structure in artificial metapopulations of the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, we test to which degree spatial (mainland-island metapopulations) and spatiotemporal variation (classical metapopulations) in habitat availability affects the dynamics of the metapopulations relative to systems where habitat is constantly available in time and space (patchy metapopulations). Our experiment demonstrates that (i) spatial variation in habitat availability decreases variance in metapopulation size and decreases density-dependent dispersal at the metapopulation level, while (ii) spatiotemporal variation in habitat availability increases patch extinction rates, decreases local population and metapopulation sizes and decreases density dependence in population growth rates. We found dispersal to be negatively density dependent and overall low in the spatial variable mainland-island metapopulation. This demographic variation subsequently impacts local and regional population dynamics and determines patterns of metapopulation stability. Both local and metapopulation-level variabilities are minimized in mainland-island metapopulations relative to classical and patchy ones.

  2. Interaction between stocking density and settlement on population dynamics in suspended mussel culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubillo, Alhambra M.; Fuentes-Santos, Isabel; Labarta, Uxío

    2015-01-01

    Population dynamics on mussels growing on suspended culture depend mainly on the balance of several processes: mortality and/or dislodgements from the ropes, recruitment and growth. The negative effect of overcrowding on mussel growth and survival has been widely studied. Other works have addressed the effect of population size on recruitment on bottom beds. This study aims to provide insight into the processes underlying population dynamics. To this purpose, we analyzed the effect of stocking density on mussel growth, survival and seed settlement, and the post-settlement interaction between adults and recruits in suspended culture. The temporal pattern of the variables involved in population dynamics was fitted by GAM models, which in contrast with parametric models does not assume any prior relationships between variables. Our results show that mussel growth and survival depend on a trade-off between competition for resources at high densities and the risk of great settlements in less crowded adult mussel populations. Intracohort competition increased with stocking density, while seed settlement, which increases the risk of mussel dislodgements and leads to intercohort competition, was higher at moderate stocking densities. Post-settlement competitive pressures were driven by total population density and size composition. Both intracohort competition in adults and asymmetric competition between adults and recruits increase with higher adult-recruit ratios. All these density-dependent processes should be considered in future management strategies and research experimental designs.

  3. Can ocean acidification affect population dynamics of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides at its southern range edge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findlay, Helen S; Burrows, Michael T; Kendall, Michael A; Spicer, John I; Widdicombe, Stephen

    2010-10-01

    The global ocean and atmosphere are warming. There is increasing evidence suggesting that, in addition to other environmental factors, climate change is affecting species distributions and local population dynamics. Additionally, as a consequence of the growing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the oceans are taking up increasing amounts of this CO2, causing ocean pH to decrease (ocean acidification). The relative impacts of ocean acidification on population dynamics have yet to be investigated, despite many studies indicating that there will be at least a sublethal impact on many marine organisms, particularly key calcifying organisms. Using empirical data, we forced a barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) population model to investigate the relative influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification on a population nearing the southern limit of its geographic distribution. Hindcast models were compared to observational data from Cellar Beach (southwestern United Kingdom). Results indicate that a declining pH trend (-0.0017 unit/yr), indicative of ocean acidification over the past 50 years, does not cause an observable impact on the population abundance relative to changes caused by fluctuations in temperature. Below the critical temperature (here T(crit) = 13.1 degrees C), pH has a more significant affect on population dynamics at this southern range edge. However, above this value, SST has the overriding influence. At lower SST, a decrease in pH (according to the National Bureau of Standards, pHNBs) from 8.2 to 7.8 can significantly decrease the population abundance. The lethal impacts of ocean acidification observed in experiments on early life stages reduce cumulative survival by approximately 25%, which again will significantly alter the population level at this southern limit. Furthermore, forecast predictions from this model suggest that combined acidification and warming cause this local population to die out 10 years earlier than

  4. Structure and dynamics of natural populations of the endangered plant Euryodendron excelsum H. T. Chang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shikang SHEN; Haiying MA; Yuehua WANG; Boyi WANG; Guozhu SHEN

    2009-01-01

    Euryodendron excelsum H. T. Chang is an endangered species of the family Theaceae endemic to China. It is listed as a second-class endangered plant for state protection in the Red Data Book of Plants in the People's Republic of China. The species is restricted to one remnant population with less than 200 individuals in the Bajia region of Yangchun County, Guangdong Province.This study was conducted to determine the status of the population, analyze the past population structure and forecast the future population dynamics of E. excelsum.The size structure and height structure of the population of E. excelsum were tabulated and analyzed. Based on these data, we estimated the values of the parameters such as survival curve, mortality curve and life expectancy.Population dynamics was predicted by a time-sequence model. The size distribution of the whole population generally fit a reverse "J" type curve, suggesting a stable population. The number of young individuals was larger than that of middle-aged and old individuals. The analysis of life table and survival curves show that under environmental screening and human disturbance, the population had one peak of mortality in size class Ⅱ and only 11.43% individuals could survive from size class Ⅱ to size class III. The life expectancy of E. excelsum was the highest in size class IV. The survival curve of the population belongs to the Deevey-III type. Time-sequence models for E. excelsum population predict that the number of different size classes will increase after two and five years. As a result, the crucial factors for the natural regeneration and restoration of E. excelsum are the protection of living individuals and their habitat.

  5. Implications of interacting microscale habitat heterogeneity and disturbance events on Folsomia candida (Collembola) population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Palmqvist, Annemette; Forbes, Valery E

    2014-01-01

    The authors implemented a fractal algorithm in a spatially explicit individual-based model, in order to generate landscapes with different microscale patterns of habitat fragmentation and disturbance events, and studied their effects on population dynamics of the collembolan Folsomia candida. Among......, they are exposed to natural stressors, which might influence the effects of chemicals on populations. We designed simulation experiments that incorporate these 3 factors, and investigated their effects on populations of F. candida, in presence or absence of behavioural avoidance of contaminated habitat. Simulation...

  6. Dynamical behaviour of an epidemic on complex networks with population mobility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Hai-Feng; Small Michael; Fu Xin-Chu; Wang Bing-Hong

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,we study the dynamical behaviour of an epidemic on complex networks with population mobility.In our model,the number of people on each node is unrestricted as the nodes of the network are considered as cities,communities,and so on. Because people can travel between different cities,we study the effect of a population's mobility on the epidemic spreading. In view of the population's mobility,we suppose that the usceptible individual can be infected by an infected individual in the same city or other connected cities. Simulations are presented to verify our analysis.

  7. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaskova H

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Hana Tomaskova,1 Jitka Kuhnova,2 Richard Cimler,1,3 Ondrej Dolezal,1 Kamil Kuca3 1Faculty of Informatics and Management, 2Faculty of Science, 3Center for Basic and Applied Research (CZAV, University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic Introduction: Alzheimer’s disease (AD is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled.Aim: The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation.Methods: For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat.Results: Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million.Conclusion: System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of

  8. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  9. Population dynamics of european ground squirrels (Spermophilus citellus) in a suburban area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoffmann, IE; Millesi, E; Everts, LG; Dittami, JP

    2003-01-01

    We monitored European ground squirrels (Spermophilus citellus) in a recreation area near Vienna, Austria, over a 7-year period to follow their population dynamics. Data were obtained by mark-recapture and daily checklists in an attempt to track the fates of individuals present in a defined area. Abu

  10. Dynamic Behaviour of a Population of Controlled-by-price Demand Side Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sossan, Fabrizio; Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2014-01-01

    It is described that controlling or shedding by price the power consumption of a population of thermostatic loads introduces in the aggregate consumption dynamic effects th at cannot be disregarded if electrical flexible demand is meant to supply power system services. It is shown that inducing...

  11. Dynamics of weed populations : spatial pattern formation and implications for control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallinga, J.

    1998-01-01

    Modelling studies were carried out to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of annual weed populations and to identify the key factors that determine the long-term herbicide use of weed control programmes. Three different weed control programmes were studied.

    In the first weed

  12. Evolutionarily stable disequilibrium: endless dynamics of evolution in a stationary population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takeuchi, Nobuto; Kaneko, Kunihiko; Hogeweg, P

    2016-01-01

    Evolution is often conceived as changes in the properties of a population over generations. Does this notion exhaust the possible dynamics of evolution? Life is hierarchically organized, and evolution can operate at multiple levels with conflicting tendencies. Using a minimal model of such conflicti

  13. Dynamics of Yeast Populations during Cider Fermentation in the Asturian Region of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabranes, Carmen; Moreno, Javier; Mangas, Juan J.

    1990-01-01

    The influence of different cidermaking systems and apple mixtures on the dynamics of yeast populations in cider manufactured in Asturias (northern Spain) were studied. Results obtained in an experimental pilot plant were compared with those found in Asturian cider plants by using traditional techniques. Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Kloeckera apiculata were found in all cases. PMID:16348385

  14. Cost-effectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis - A population-based dynamic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welte, R; Kretzschmar, M; Leidl, R; Van den Hoek, A; Jager, JC; Postma, MJ

    2000-01-01

    Background: Models commonly used for the economic assessment of chamydial screening programs do not consider population effects. Goal: To develop a novel dynamic approach for the economic evaluation of chlamydial prevention measures and to determine the cost-effectiveness of a general practitioner-b

  15. Extrapolating toxic effects on individuals to the population level: the role of dynamic energy budgets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Klok, T.C.

    2010-01-01

    The interest of environmental management is in the long-term health of populations and ecosystems. However, toxicity is usually assessed in short-term experiments with individuals. Modelling based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory aids the extraction of mechanistic information from the data,

  16. What controls the population dynamics of the invasive thistle Carduus nutans in its native range?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongejans, E.; Sheppard, A.W.; Shea, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. The invasive thistle Carduus nutans causes major economic losses in the Americas, Australia and New Zealand. For the first time, we have modelled its population dynamics in its native range, Eurasia, where it rarely reaches problematic densities, in order to identify ways to improve management st

  17. Horn fly population dynamics as prediction tool for the fixation of pesticide resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    This research project was conducted to establish the population dynamics of the horn fly. Two cattle herds were monitored to establish if contrasting climatic regional conditions, in addition to temperature and precipitation, related to the number of rainy days as a factor influencing horn fly infes...

  18. Field weed population dynamics : a review of model approaches and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holst, N.; Rasmussen, I.A.; Bastiaans, L.

    2007-01-01

    Mathematical modelling is a commonly used tool for studying the long-term dynamics of weed populations in agriculture. This was reflected in our review by the large number of scientific papers (134 original publications) and the continuing need to gain an overview over this fast developing field (20

  19. Population dynamics of Ascaridia galli following single infection in young chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferdushy, Tania; Luna Olivares, Luz Adilia; Nejsum, Peter

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY The population dynamics of Ascaridia galli was studied in 70 ISA Brown layer pullets, 42 of them were each experimentally infected with 500 embryonated A. galli eggs and 28 chickens were kept as uninfected controls. Six chickens from the infected group and 4 from the control group were ne...

  20. The within-host population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis vary with treatment efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauner, Andrej; Liu, Qingyun; Via, Laura E; Liu, Xin; Ruan, Xianglin; Liang, Lili; Shi, Huimin; Chen, Ying; Wang, Ziling; Liang, Ruixia; Zhang, Wei; Wei, Wang; Gao, Jingcai; Sun, Gang; Brites, Daniela; England, Kathleen; Zhang, Guolong; Gagneux, Sebastien; Barry, Clifton E; Gao, Qian

    2017-04-19

    Combination therapy is one of the most effective tools for limiting the emergence of drug resistance in pathogens. Despite the widespread adoption of combination therapy across diseases, drug resistance rates continue to rise, leading to failing treatment regimens. The mechanisms underlying treatment failure are well studied, but the processes governing successful combination therapy are poorly understood. We address this question by studying the population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within tuberculosis patients undergoing treatment with different combinations of antibiotics. By combining very deep whole genome sequencing (~1000-fold genome-wide coverage) with sequential sputum sampling, we were able to detect transient genetic diversity driven by the apparently continuous turnover of minor alleles, which could serve as the source of drug-resistant bacteria. However, we report that treatment efficacy has a clear impact on the population dynamics: sufficient drug pressure bears a clear signature of purifying selection leading to apparent genetic stability. In contrast, M. tuberculosis populations subject to less drug pressure show markedly different dynamics, including cases of acquisition of additional drug resistance. Our findings show that for a pathogen like M. tuberculosis, which is well adapted to the human host, purifying selection constrains the evolutionary trajectory to resistance in effectively treated individuals. Nonetheless, we also report a continuous turnover of minor variants, which could give rise to the emergence of drug resistance in cases of drug pressure weakening. Monitoring bacterial population dynamics could therefore provide an informative metric for assessing the efficacy of novel drug combinations.

  1. Influence of plant species on population dynamics, genotypic diversity and antibiotic production by indigenous Pseudomonas spp

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergsma-Vlami, M.; Prins, M.E.; Raaijmakers, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    The population dynamics, genotypic diversity and activity of naturally-occurring 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (DAPG)-producing Pseudomonas spp. was investigated for four plant species (wheat, sugar beet, potato, lily) grown in two different soils. All four plant species tested, except lily and in some

  2. Nonlinear dynamic analysis of voice: A normative study in the Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacqueline B. Fernandes, Radish Kumar Balasubramanium, Arivudai Nambi Pitchaimuthu, Jayashree S. Bhat

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was to establish normative data for the Indian population using Nonlinear dynamic analysis. In this study, correlation dimension, a measure of nonlinear dynamic analysis was performed for normophonic young, middle aged and elderly voices. Materials and Methods: For this purpose, normophonic young, middle aged and elderly individuals were selected without a history of voice/respiratory problems and vocal abuse/ misuse. 60 participants were selected in each group. All of these individuals had a normal voice as evaluated through GRBAS scale. Sound Recorder, on a computer desktop was used for voice recording and “convert” code in MATLAB as well as D2.ini.writer software based on TISEAN package (Hegger, Kantz & Schreiber, 1999 was used for the calculation of Correlation dimension (D2. Correlation dimension measures were obtained for each participant, for both steady vowel phonations (/a/, /i/, /u/ as well as narration samples. Results: The correlation dimension measures across the group revealed a significant main effect of the groups indicating correlation dimension increases with increase in age. Conclusions: The application of nonlinear dynamic measures in the assessment of voice is a novel venture and thus this study provides normative data for correlation dimensions in the Indian population for future comparisons against the disordered voice samples. Further studies are warranted to investigate the same in the clinical population. Also other nonlinear dynamic analysis methods need to be investigated to obtain the normative data in the Indian population.

  3. Cost-effectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis - A population-based dynamic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welte, R; Kretzschmar, M; Leidl, R; Van den Hoek, A; Jager, JC; Postma, MJ

    2000-01-01

    Background: Models commonly used for the economic assessment of chamydial screening programs do not consider population effects. Goal: To develop a novel dynamic approach for the economic evaluation of chlamydial prevention measures and to determine the cost-effectiveness of a general

  4. Frost and Forest Stand Effects on the Population Dynamics of Asplenium scolopendrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremer, P.; Jongejans, E.

    2010-01-01

    Our objective was to analyze which factors are critical for the dynamics of terrestrial Asplenium scolopendrium populations at the northern edge of its distribution. Therefore, a long-term study (1978–1999) on the performance and demography of this fern species has been carried out in three

  5. Numerical simulation of the one-dimensional population dynamics with nonlocal competitive losses and convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleutdinova, V. A.; Borisov, A. V.; Shaparev, V. É.; Shapovalov, A. V.

    2011-09-01

    Numerical solutions of the generalized one-dimensional Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovskii-Piskunov equation with nonlocal competitive losses and convection are constructed. The influence function for nonlocal losses is chosen in the form of a Gaussian distribution. The effect of convection on the dynamics of the spatially inhomogeneous distribution of the population density is investigated.

  6. Mid-infrared lasers: Challenges imposed by the population dynamics of the gain system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pollnau, Markus

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the influence of the population dynamics on mid-infrared lasers. Specifically, the typically longer lifetime of the lower compared to the upper laser level has to be addressed in order to achieve highly efficient laser operation in this wavelength range. Examples of different

  7. Population dynamics of thrips prey and their mite predators in a refuge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magalhães, S.; Van Rijn, P.C.J.; Montserrat, M.; Pallini, A.; Sabelis, M.W.

    2007-01-01

    Prey refuges are expected to affect population dynamics, but direct experimental tests of this hypothesis are scarce. Larvae of western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis use the web produced by spider mites as a refuge from predation by the predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris. Thrips incur a

  8. Application of homotopy-perturbation method to nonlinear population dynamics models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chowdhury, M.S.H. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi Selangor (Malaysia); Hashim, I. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi Selangor (Malaysia)], E-mail: ishak_h@ukm.my; Abdulaziz, O. [School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi Selangor (Malaysia)

    2007-08-20

    In this Letter, the homotopy-perturbation method (HPM) is employed to derive approximate series solutions of nonlinear population dynamics models. The nonlinear models considered are the multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations. The accuracy of this method is examined by comparison with the available exact and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4)

  9. Population dynamics of dominant demersal fishes caught in Tambelan Islands waters, Riau Archipelago Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YONVITNER

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The population of demersal fishesal tend to be decline in the last few decades. The decline was due to the increased of intensive catches, fishing effort and illegal fishing practices. This study aimed to examine aspects of population dynamics such as mortality, recruitment, opportunity capture and population estimation. The study was conducted in six locations at Tambelan waters, on 4-16 November 2010. Collected data included the fish species, size and biomass catch. The analyses performed included mortality, recruitment, opportunity capture and population estimates (VPA. The data indicated that the Genus of Nemipterus and Lutjanus possess the highest total mortality rate that was respectively 1.62 and 2.55. The highest recruitment presentation of the population which has an annual period as Pentapodus was 16%. Catch opportunities tend to be higher than actual fishing, while the alleged biomass of steady state conditions reached 12.2 tons/yr.

  10. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... spring temperature could have a greater ‘relative effect’ on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife...... applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-year time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible...

  11. Monitoring methanogenic population dynamics in a full-scale anaerobic digester to facilitate operational management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Julie; Williams, Haydn; Dinsdale, Richard; Guwy, Alan; Esteves, Sandra

    2013-07-01

    Microbial populations in a full-scale anaerobic digester fed on food waste were monitored over an 18-month period using qPCR. The digester exhibited a highly dynamic environment in which methanogenic populations changed constantly in response to availability of substrates and inhibitors. The methanogenic population in the digester was dominated by Methanosaetaceae, suggesting that aceticlastic methanogenesis was the main route for the production of methane. Sudden losses (69%) in Methanosaetaceae were followed by a build-up of VFAs which were subsequently consumed when populations recovered. A build up of ammonium inhibited Methanosaetaceae and resulted in shifts from acetate to hydrogen utilization. Addition of trace elements and alkalinity when propionate levels were high stimulated microbial growth. Routine monitoring of microbial populations and VFAs provided valuable insights into the complex processes occurring within the digester and could be used to predict digester stability and facilitate digester optimization.

  12. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-year time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible...... interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density: BCI = 0.19 to 0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (βfebaprtemp1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04 to 0.14), much more so...

  13. Predator-Prey-Subsidy Population Dynamics on Stepping-Stone Domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Lulan; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2017-03-16

    Predator-prey-subsidy dynamics on stepping-stone domains are examined using a variety of network configurations. Our problem is motivated by the interactions between arctic foxes (predator) and lemmings (prey) in the presence of seal carrion (subsidy) provided by polar bears. We use the n-Patch Model, which considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We consider the role that the carrying capacity, predator migration rate, input subsidy rate, predator mortality rate, and proportion of predators surviving migration play in the predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics. We find that for certain types of networks, added mobility will help predator populations, allowing them to survive or coexist when they would otherwise go extinct if confined to one location, while in other situations (such as when sparsely distributed nodes in the network have few resources available) the added mobility will hurt the predator population. We also find that a combination of favorable conditions for the prey and subsidy can lead to the formation of limit cycles (boom and bust dynamic) from stable equilibrium states. These modifications to the dynamics vary depending on the specific network structure employed, highlighting the fact that network structure can strongly influence the predator-prey-subsidy dynamics in stepping-stone domains.

  14. Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUWARNO

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

  15. The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

    2011-06-01

    Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Population dynamics in a Floquet realization of the Harper-Hofstadter Hamiltonian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitewski, Thomas; Cooper, Nigel R.

    2015-06-01

    We study a Floquet realization of the Harper-Hofstadter model that has recently been implemented in a gas of cold bosonic atoms. We study in detail the scattering processes in this system in the weakly interacting regime due to the interplay of particle interactions and the explicit time dependence of the Floquet states that lead to band transitions and heating. We focus on the experimentally used parameters and explicitly model the transverse confining direction. Based on transition rates computed within the Floquet-Fermi golden rule we obtain band population dynamics which are in agreement with the dynamics observed in experiment. Finally, we discuss whether and how photon-assisted collisions that may be the source of heating and band population dynamics might be suppressed in the experimental setup by appropriate design of the transverse confining potential. The suppression of such processes will become increasingly important as experiments progress into simulating strongly interacting systems in the presence of artificial gauge fields.

  17. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  18. Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NITA ETIKAWATI

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.

  19. A shift from exploitation to interference competition with increasing density affects population and community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdridge, Erica M; Cuellar-Gempeler, Catalina; terHorst, Casey P

    2016-08-01

    Intraspecific competition influences population and community dynamics and occurs via two mechanisms. Exploitative competition is an indirect effect that occurs through use of a shared resource and depends on resource availability. Interference competition occurs by obstructing access to a resource and may not depend on resource availability. Our study tested whether the strength of interference competition changes with protozoa population density. We grew experimental microcosms of protozoa and bacteria under different combinations of protozoan density and basal resource availability. We then solved a dynamic predator-prey model for parameters of the functional response using population growth rates measured in our experiment. As population density increased, competition shifted from exploitation to interference, and competition was less dependent on resource levels. Surprisingly, the effect of resources was weakest when competition was the most intense. We found that at low population densities, competition was largely exploitative and resource availability had a large effect on population growth rates, but the effect of resources was much weaker at high densities. This shift in competitive mechanism could have implications for interspecific competition, trophic interactions, community diversity, and natural selection. We also tested whether this shift in the mechanism of competition with protozoa density affected the structure of the bacterial prey community. We found that both resources and protozoa density affected the structure of the bacterial prey community, suggesting that competitive mechanism may also affect trophic interactions.

  20. Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

    2017-05-07

    Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Gudym

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

  2. Activity based costing (ABC Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prof. Ph.D. Saveta Tudorache

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper the need and advantages are presented of using the Activity BasedCosting method, need arising from the need of solving the information pertinence issue. This issue has occurreddue to the limitation of classic methods in this field, limitation also reflected by the disadvantages ofsuch classic methods in establishing complete costs.

  3. Population Dynamics Following the Last Glacial Maximum in Two Sympatric Lizards in Northern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanfu QU; Qun ZHAO; Hongliang LU; Xiang JI

    2014-01-01

    Phylogeographic studies ofEremias lizards (Lacertidae) in East Asia have been limited, and the impact of major climatic events on their population dynamics remains poorly known. This study aimed to investigate population histories and refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum of two sympatricEremias lizards (E. argus andE. brenchleyi) inhabiting northern China. We sequenced partial mitochondrial DNA from theND4 gene for 128 individuals ofE. argus from nine localities, and 46 individuals ofE. brenchleyi from ifve localities. Forty-fourND4 haplotypes were determined fromE. argus samples, and 33 fromE. brenchleyi samples. Population expansion events began about 0.0044 Ma inE. argus, and 0.031 Ma inE. brenchleyi. The demographic history ofE. brenchleyi indicates a long-lasting population decline since the most recent common ancestor, while that ofE. argusindicates a continuous population growth. Among-population structure was signiifcant in both species, and there were multiple refugia across their range. Intermittent gene flow occurred among expanded populations across multiple refugia during warmer phases of the glacial period, and this may explain why the effective population size has remained relatively stable inE. brenchleyi and grown inE. argus.

  4. Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinkel, Martina

    2013-04-01

    Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

  5. Variational Latent Gaussian Process for Recovering Single-Trial Dynamics from Population Spike Trains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yuan; Park, Il Memming

    2017-05-01

    When governed by underlying low-dimensional dynamics, the interdependence of simultaneously recorded populations of neurons can be explained by a small number of shared factors, or a low-dimensional trajectory. Recovering these latent trajectories, particularly from single-trial population recordings, may help us understand the dynamics that drive neural computation. However, due to the biophysical constraints and noise in the spike trains, inferring trajectories from data is a challenging statistical problem in general. Here, we propose a practical and efficient inference method, the variational latent gaussian process (vLGP). The vLGP combines a generative model with a history-dependent point process observation, together with a smoothness prior on the latent trajectories. The vLGP improves on earlier methods for recovering latent trajectories, which assume either observation models inappropriate for point processes or linear dynamics. We compare and validate vLGP on both simulated data sets and population recordings from the primary visual cortex. In the V1 data set, we find that vLGP achieves substantially higher performance than previous methods for predicting omitted spike trains, as well as capturing both the toroidal topology of visual stimuli space and the noise correlation. These results show that vLGP is a robust method with the potential to reveal hidden neural dynamics from large-scale neural recordings.

  6. An integrated calcium imaging processing toolbox for the analysis of neuronal population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián A Romano

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of new imaging and optogenetics techniques to study the dynamics of large neuronal circuits is generating datasets of unprecedented volume and complexity, demanding the development of appropriate analysis tools. We present a comprehensive computational workflow for the analysis of neuronal population calcium dynamics. The toolbox includes newly developed algorithms and interactive tools for image pre-processing and segmentation, estimation of significant single-neuron single-trial signals, mapping event-related neuronal responses, detection of activity-correlated neuronal clusters, exploration of population dynamics, and analysis of clusters' features against surrogate control datasets. The modules are integrated in a modular and versatile processing pipeline, adaptable to different needs. The clustering module is capable of detecting flexible, dynamically activated neuronal assemblies, consistent with the distributed population coding of the brain. We demonstrate the suitability of the toolbox for a variety of calcium imaging datasets. The toolbox open-source code, a step-by-step tutorial and a case study dataset are available at https://github.com/zebrain-lab/Toolbox-Romano-et-al.

  7. An integrated calcium imaging processing toolbox for the analysis of neuronal population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Sebastián A; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Jouary, Adrien; Boulanger-Weill, Jonathan; Candeo, Alessia; Pietri, Thomas; Sumbre, Germán

    2017-06-01

    The development of new imaging and optogenetics techniques to study the dynamics of large neuronal circuits is generating datasets of unprecedented volume and complexity, demanding the development of appropriate analysis tools. We present a comprehensive computational workflow for the analysis of neuronal population calcium dynamics. The toolbox includes newly developed algorithms and interactive tools for image pre-processing and segmentation, estimation of significant single-neuron single-trial signals, mapping event-related neuronal responses, detection of activity-correlated neuronal clusters, exploration of population dynamics, and analysis of clusters' features against surrogate control datasets. The modules are integrated in a modular and versatile processing pipeline, adaptable to different needs. The clustering module is capable of detecting flexible, dynamically activated neuronal assemblies, consistent with the distributed population coding of the brain. We demonstrate the suitability of the toolbox for a variety of calcium imaging datasets. The toolbox open-source code, a step-by-step tutorial and a case study dataset are available at https://github.com/zebrain-lab/Toolbox-Romano-et-al.

  8. [Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

    2014-11-01

    Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

  9. Dynamic model for population distribution and optimum immigration and job creation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. U. Ahmed

    2004-12-01

    Control theory, it is possible to formulate optimum immigration and job creation strategies while maintaining population level close to certain pre-specified targets. With this objective in mind, we consider a simplified dynamic model based on a previous model developed in (Ahmed and Rahim, 2001:325-358 to describe the population distribution in Canada. Numerical results demonstrate that the model population is in close agreement with the actual population. This model was then used to formulate a control problem with immigration and job creation rates being the decision (control variables. Using optimal control theory, optimum immigration and job creation policies were determined. Results are illustrated by numerical simulation and they are found to be very encouraging.

  10. Dynamic model for population distribution and optimum immigration and job creation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed, N.U.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we demonstrate that by use of modern Systems and Optimal Control theory, it is possible to formulate optimum immigration and job creation strategies while maintaining population level close to certain pre-specified targets. With this objective in mind, we consider a simplified dynamic model based on a previous model developed in (Ahmed and Rahim, 2001:325-358 to describe the population distribution in Canada. Numerical results demonstrate that the model population is in close agreement with the actual population. This model was then used to formulate a control problem with immigration and job creation rates being the decision (control variables. Using optimal control theory, optimum immigration and job creation policies were determined. Results are illustrated by numerical simulation and they are found to be very encouraging.

  11. Postcatastrophe population dynamics and density dependence of an endemic island duck

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seavy, N.E.; Reynolds, M.H.; Link, W.A.; Hatfield, J.S.

    2009-01-01

    Laysan ducks (Anas laysanensis) are restricted to approximately 9 km2 in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, USA. To evaluate the importance of density dependence for Laysan ducks, we conducted a Bayesian analysis to estimate the parameters of a Gompertz model and the magnitude of process variation and observation error based on the fluctuations in Laysan duck abundance on Laysan Island from 1994 to 2007. This model described a stationary distribution for the population at carrying capacity that fluctuates around a long-term mean of 456 ducks and is between 316 to 636 ducks 95% of the time. This range of expected variability can be used to identify changes in population size that warn of catastrophic events. Density-dependent population dynamics may explain the recovery of Laysan duck from catastrophic declines and allow managers to identify population monitoring thresholds.

  12. The effect of habitat fragmentation on cyclic population dynamics: a numerical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strohm, S; Tyson, R

    2009-08-01

    Through four spatially explicit models, we investigate how habitat fragmentation affects cyclic predator-prey population dynamics. We use a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) framework to describe the dispersal of predators and prey in a heterogeneous landscape made of high quality and low quality habitat patches, subject to increasing fragmentation through habitat separation and/or habitat loss. Our results show that habitat fragmentation decreases the amplitude of the predator-prey population cycles while average population density is not as strongly affected in general. Beyond these simple trends however, the four models show differing responses to fragmentation, indicating that when making predictions about population survival and persistence in the face of habitat fragmentation, the choice of model is important. Our results may inform conservation efforts in fragmented habitats for cyclic species such as the snowshoe hare and Canada lynx.

  13. The effect of static and dynamic spatially structured disturbances on a locally dispersing population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebeler, David E; Morin, Benjamin R

    2007-05-01

    Previous models of locally dispersing populations have shown that in the presence of spatially structured fixed habitat heterogeneity, increasing local spatial autocorrelation in habitat generally has a beneficial effect on such populations, increasing equilibrium population density. It has also been shown that with large-scale disturbance events which simultaneously affect contiguous blocks of sites, increasing spatial autocorrelation in the disturbances has a harmful effect, decreasing equilibrium population density. Here, spatial population models are developed which include both of these spatially structured exogenous influences, to determine how they interact with each other and with the endogenously generated spatial structure produced by the population dynamics. The models show that when habitat is fragmented and disturbance occurs at large spatial scales, the population cannot persist no matter how large its birth rate, an effect not seen in previous simpler models of this type. The behavior of the model is also explored when the local autocorrelation of habitat heterogeneity and disturbance events are equal, i.e. the two effects occur at the same spatial scale. When this scale parameter is very small, habitat fragmentation prevents the population from persisting because sites attempting to reproduce will drop most of their offspring on unsuitable sites; when the parameter is very large, large-scale disturbance events drive the population to extinction. Population levels reach their maximum at intermediate values of the scale parameter, and the critical values in the model show that the population will persist most easily at these intermediate scales of spatial influences. The models are investigated via spatially explicit stochastic simulations, traditional (infinite-dispersal) and improved (local-dispersal) mean-field approximations, and pair approximations.

  14. Population physiology: leveraging electronic health record data to understand human endocrine dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D J Albers

    Full Text Available Studying physiology and pathophysiology over a broad population for long periods of time is difficult primarily because collecting human physiologic data can be intrusive, dangerous, and expensive. One solution is to use data that have been collected for a different purpose. Electronic health record (EHR data promise to support the development and testing of mechanistic physiologic models on diverse populations and allow correlation with clinical outcomes, but limitations in the data have thus far thwarted such use. For example, using uncontrolled population-scale EHR data to verify the outcome of time dependent behavior of mechanistic, constructive models can be difficult because: (i aggregation of the population can obscure or generate a signal, (ii there is often no control population with a well understood health state, and (iii diversity in how the population is measured can make the data difficult to fit into conventional analysis techniques. This paper shows that it is possible to use EHR data to test a physiological model for a population and over long time scales. Specifically, a methodology is developed and demonstrated for testing a mechanistic, time-dependent, physiological model of serum glucose dynamics with uncontrolled, population-scale, physiological patient data extracted from an EHR repository. It is shown that there is no observable daily variation the normalized mean glucose for any EHR subpopulations. In contrast, a derived value, daily variation in nonlinear correlation quantified by the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI, did reveal the intuitively expected diurnal variation in glucose levels amongst a random population of humans. Moreover, in a population of continuously (tube fed patients, there was no observable TDMI-based diurnal signal. These TDMI-based signals, via a glucose insulin model, were then connected with human feeding patterns. In particular, a constructive physiological model was shown to correctly

  15. Integrating population dynamics models and distance sampling data: a spatial hierarchical state-space approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeem, Khurram; Moore, Jeffrey E; Zhang, Ying; Chipman, Hugh

    2016-07-01

    Stochastic versions of Gompertz, Ricker, and various other dynamics models play a fundamental role in quantifying strength of density dependence and studying long-term dynamics of wildlife populations. These models are frequently estimated using time series of abundance estimates that are inevitably subject to observation error and missing data. This issue can be addressed with a state-space modeling framework that jointly estimates the observed data model and the underlying stochastic population dynamics (SPD) model. In cases where abundance data are from multiple locations with a smaller spatial resolution (e.g., from mark-recapture and distance sampling studies), models are conventionally fitted to spatially pooled estimates of yearly abundances. Here, we demonstrate that a spatial version of SPD models can be directly estimated from short time series of spatially referenced distance sampling data in a unified hierarchical state-space modeling framework that also allows for spatial variance (covariance) in population growth. We also show that a full range of likelihood based inference, including estimability diagnostics and model selection, is feasible in this class of models using a data cloning algorithm. We further show through simulation experiments that the hierarchical state-space framework introduced herein efficiently captures the underlying dynamical parameters and spatial abundance distribution. We apply our methodology by analyzing a time series of line-transect distance sampling data for fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) off the U.S. west coast. Although there were only seven surveys conducted during the study time frame, 1991-2014, our analysis detected presence of strong density regulation and provided reliable estimates of fin whale densities. In summary, we show that the integrative framework developed herein allows ecologists to better infer key population characteristics such as presence of density regulation and spatial variability in a

  16. Dynamics of a Lotka-Volterra type model with applications to marine phage population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin, C [School of Mathematical Sciences University College Cork, Cork (Ireland); Pokrovskii, A [School of Mathematical Sciences University College Cork, Cork (Ireland); Prentice, M [Department of Microbiology University College Cork, Cork (Ireland); Sobolev, V [Department of Differential Equations and Control Theory Samara State University, Akademika Pavlova Street, 1, 443011 (Russian Federation)

    2006-12-01

    The famous Lotka-Volterra equations play a fundamental role in the mathematical modeling of various ecological and chemical systems. A new modification of these equations has been recently suggested to model the structure of marine phage populations, which are the most abundant biological entities in the biosphere. The purpose of the paper is: (i) to make some methodical remarks concerning this modification; (ii) to discuss new types of canards which arise naturally in this context; (iii) to present results of some numerical experiments.

  17. Non-linear analysis indicates chaotic dynamics and reduced resilience in model-based Daphnia populations exposed to environmental stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Ottermanns

    Full Text Available In this study we present evidence that anthropogenic stressors can reduce the resilience of age-structured populations. Enhancement of disturbance in a model-based Daphnia population lead to a repression of chaotic population dynamics at the same time increasing the degree of synchrony between the population's age classes. Based on the theory of chaos-mediated survival an increased risk of extinction was revealed for this population exposed to high concentrations of a chemical stressor. The Lyapunov coefficient was supposed to be a useful indicator to detect disturbance thresholds leading to alterations in population dynamics. One possible explanation could be a discrete change in attractor orientation due to external disturbance. The statistical analysis of Lyapunov coefficient distribution is proposed as a methodology to test for significant non-linear effects of general disturbance on populations. Although many new questions arose, this study forms a theoretical basis for a dynamical definition of population recovery.

  18. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2010-05-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  19. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  20. Seasonal Population Dynamics of the Asian Citrus Psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama in Sarawak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L.C. Teck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Effective control of phytophagous pests requires a thorough understanding of their seasonal population dynamics, dispersion behavior, natural enemy activity and climate. To date, although very little detail information had been published on the ecology of Diaphorina citri. The objective of this investigation was to test through field experiment the hypothesis that the major factors influencing local D. citri populations particularly their seasonal population dynamics in Sarawak are (a flushing cycles, (b climate and (c the impact of the primary parasitoids namely Tamarixia radiata and Diaphorencyrtus aligarhensis. Approach: Seasonal abundance D. citri was studied weekly from March 1998 to December 2000 in the 1-ha citrus honey mandarin (Citrus aurantium L. commercial orchard at Jemukan (1° 33'N, 110° 41'E, Kota Samarahan Division, Southwest Sarawak, in Malaysia. Results: Field studies on citrus trees showed that the D. citri population fluctuates throughout the year on citrus honey mandarin in Sarawak. Generations overlapped but adult and egg population peaks for a short period generally coincided with three annual flushing cycles, in August-September, February-March and June-July between March 1998 and December 2000. Conclusion: Psyllid population levels are positively related to the availability of new shoot flushes. Psyllid populations are adversely affected by weather conditions and parasitoids. Adult psyllid populations increased exponentially during periods of flush growth and migration and dispersal of the adults was also related to flushing cycles. Dispersal and colonization of new trees is greatest in September-October, at the onset of the rainy season.

  1. Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harun Uçak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Literally, it has been accepted that one of the major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership is in population term. There has not been any enlargement process as large as Turkey’s population as a single state in EU history before. The enlargement in 2004 which includes 10 states involved 74 million people as whole member states while Turkey’s population is 72 million inhabitants in 2007 data which is only lower than Germany’s population in all EU member states. Thus, Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of high population. This study compares the population dynamics, working conditions, minimum wage rates and main macroeconomic indicators between Turkey and EU member states. Turkey has young generations compared to EU countries. In the comparison of age groups proportion in total population, 0-19 age group %21,9 in EU 27 and %36,5 in Turkey, 20-39 age group is %28 in EU 27 and %34,3 in Turkey, 40-59 age group is %27,9 in EU and %20,9 in Turkey, 60 and above age group is %22,1 in EU and %9,5 in Turkey. Thus, population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU 27 societies if the membership would occur in the future. However, minimum wage rates in Turkey are lower than many EU member states but generally higher than EU member states located in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, immigration possibilities from Turkey can be expected to Western European Countries, but not the same direction to Central and Eastern Europe Countries. Furthermore, the process in macroeconomic indicators will be a determinant in immigration expectations while Turkey’s GDP has been grown faster than EU level recently.

  2. A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

    2017-02-07

    We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

  3. A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

  4. Population dynamics in the presence of quasispecies effects and changing environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forster, Robert Burke

    2006-12-01

    This thesis explores how natural selection acts on organisms such as viruses that have either highly error-prone reproduction or face variable environmental conditions or both. By modeling population dynamics under these conditions, we gain a better understanding of the selective forces at work, both in our simulations and hopefully also in real organisms. With an understanding of the important factors in natural selection we can forecast not only the immediate fate of an existing population but also in what directions such a population might evolve in the future. We demonstrate that the concept of a quasispecies is relevant to evolution in a neutral fitness landscape. Motivated by RNA viruses such as HIV, we use RNA secondary structure as our model system and find that quasispecies effects arise both rapidly and in realistically small populations. We discover that the evolutionary effects of neutral drift, punctuated equilibrium and the selection for mutational robustness extend to the concept of a quasispecies. In our study of periodic environments, we consider the tradeoffs faced by quasispecies in adapting to environmental change. We develop an analytical model to predict whether evolution favors short-term or long-term adaptation and validate our model through simulation. Our results bear directly on the population dynamics of viruses such as West Nile that alternate between two host species. More generally, we discover that a selective pressure exists under these conditions to fuse or split genes with complementary environmental functions. Lastly, we study the general effects of frequency-dependent selection on two strains competing in a periodic environment. Under very general assumptions, we prove that stable coexistence rather than extinction is the likely outcome. The population dynamics of this system may be as simple as stable equilibrium or as complex as deterministic chaos.

  5. Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, E.; Koesmaryono, Y.; Impron

    2017-03-01

    Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.

  6. Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation

  7. Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

  8. Dynamical analysis of seasonal migrating population; the effect of regular hunting to the coexistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambas, T. J. M.; Khaliq, B. F.; Waluyo, D. S. Y. S.; Putra, P. S.; Soewono, E.

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal migration among wild populations is commonly seen especially in the wild life region. The migration takes place during a certain season where logistical condition and the existing territory can no longer support the life of the whole population. In this case portion of the population migrate to the better place as part of their survival, and returning back to the home place when the logistical condition is improved. Here we model the dynamic of North-South annual migration of Impala population in Zimbabwe, where portion of population in the Southern part move to the North in the beginning of the dry season and portion of them return back to the South in the wet season. Here the North area has a better environmental carrying capacity than the South. Different processes take place during the year, partial migration to the south (during the month of December and January), partial migration to the north (during the month of June and July), and birth process (during the month of November and December). We construct a discrete dynamical model for simulating the annual migrating process. It is found that a stable co-existence always occurs when no hunting takes place in all season. When hunting is allowed, the co-existence could be severely affected. We obtain here a threshold condition for co-existence and show numerical simulations for different hunting scenarios.

  9. An Exergy-Based Model for Population Dynamics: Adaptation, Mutualism, Commensalism and Selective Extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Sciubba

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Following the critical analysis of the concept of “sustainability”, developed on the basis of exergy considerations in previous works, an analysis of possible species “behavior” is presented and discussed in this paper. Once more, we make use of one single axiom: that resource consumption (material and immaterial can be quantified solely in terms of exergy flows. This assumption leads to a model of population dynamics that is applied here to describe the general behavior of interacting populations. The resulting equations are similar to the Lotka-Volterra ones, but more strongly coupled and intrinsically non-linear: as such, their solution space is topologically richer than those of classical prey-predator models. In this paper, we address an interesting specific problem in population dynamics: if a species assumes a commensalistic behavior, does it gain an evolutionary advantage? And, what is the difference, in terms of the access to the available exergy resources, between mutualism and commensalism? The model equations can be easily rearranged to accommodate both types of behavior, and thus only a brief discussion is devoted to this facet of the problem. The solution space is explored in the simplest case of two interacting populations: the model results in population curves in phase space that can satisfactorily explain the evolutionistic advantages and drawbacks of either behavior and, more importantly, identify the presence or absence of a “sustainable” solution in which both species survive.

  10. On the heterogeneity of human populations as reflected by mortality dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avraam, Demetris; Arnold, Séverine; Vasieva, Olga; Vasiev, Bakhtier

    2016-01-01

    The heterogeneity of populations is used to explain the variability of mortality rates across the lifespan and their deviations from an exponential growth at young and very old ages. A mathematical model that combines the heterogeneity with the assumption that the mortality of each constituent subpopulation increases exponentially with age, has been shown to successfully reproduce the entire mortality pattern across the lifespan and its evolution over time. In this work we aim to show that the heterogeneity is not only a convenient consideration for fitting mortality data but is indeed the actual structure of the population as reflected by the mortality dynamics over age and time. In particular, we show that the model of heterogeneous population fits mortality data better than other commonly used mortality models. This was demonstrated using cohort data taken for the entire lifespan as well as for only old ages. Also, we show that the model can reproduce seemingly contradicting observations in late-life mortality dynamics. Finally, we show that the homogenisation of a population, observed by fitting the model to actual data of consecutive periods, can be associated with the evolution of allele frequencies if the heterogeneity is assumed to reflect the genetic variations within the population. PMID:27875807

  11. [Population dynamics of the palm Euterpe oleracea (Arecaceae) from flooded forests in Choco, Colombian Pacific].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arango, Diego A; Duque, Alvaro J; Muñoz, Edinson

    2010-03-01

    The palm Euterpe oleracea is a dominant and promising species in flood plains of the Atrato river, Choco region of Colombia. We assessed the population dynamics of this species through growth rates, mortality and recruitment patterns for a period of two and a half years. Dynamic rates were compared among mixed and pure flood plain palm forests. These forests types were associated to different flooding regimes. Trees and palms were thinned in a portion for each forest type, the rest was left undisturbed. We used projection matrices to follow population trends. Thinning increased the transition probability of smaller individuals, but decreased it for larger individuals, as is typical of light demanding species. Thinning also increased mortality rates in almost all size classes, but did not affect recruitment rates. Under natural conditions, the E. oleracea populations are in equilibrium in pure and mixed forests. Thinning increased population growth in both forest types, suggesting the role played by density-dependent processes on the population size of this species.

  12. Effect of abiotic factors on seasonal population dynamics of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in northeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ximenes, Maria de Fátima Freire de Melo; Castellón, Eloy G; De Souza, Maria de Fátima; Menezes, Alexandre A Lara; Queiroz, José Wilton; Macedo e Silva, Virgínia Penéllope; Jerônimo, Selma M B

    2006-09-01

    The resurgence of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil increases the need for studies to elucidate the spatial and temporal dynamics of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz and Neiva) (Diptera: Psychodidae), the vector of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil. Sand flies were captured in peridomestic habitats biweekly for 3 yr. Cross-correlation tests and spectral analysis were used to analyze the simultaneous and lag-time correlations between Lu. longipalpis population densities and abiotic factors of temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, and rainfall. Distinct seasonal patterns were observed for males and females, with intervals of 6 mo between population peaks for males and 12 mo for females. Peak female population densities lagged 3 mo behind the maximum annual temperature. Female population density was negatively correlated with relative humidity. An increase in average wind velocity was followed by a decrease in the number of females for 2 wk. Understanding the relationship between the seasonal population dynamics of Lu. longipalpis and abiotic factors will contribute to the design of better control measures to decrease transmission of L. infantum and consequently the incidence of leishmaniasis.

  13. Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huipeng Pan

    Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.

  14. Mitochondrial DNA variants help monitor the dynamics of Wolbachia invasion into host populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeap, H L; Rašić, G; Endersby-Harshman, N M; Lee, S F; Arguni, E; Le Nguyen, H; Hoffmann, A A

    2016-03-01

    Wolbachia is the most widespread endosymbiotic bacterium of insects and other arthropods that can rapidly invade host populations. Deliberate releases of Wolbachia into natural populations of the dengue fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, are used as a novel biocontrol strategy for dengue suppression. Invasion of Wolbachia through the host population relies on factors such as high fidelity of the endosymbiont transmission and limited immigration of uninfected individuals, but these factors can be difficult to measure. One way of acquiring relevant information is to consider mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation alongside Wolbachia in field-caught mosquitoes. Here we used diagnostic mtDNA markers to differentiate infection-associated mtDNA haplotypes from those of the uninfected mosquitoes at release sites. Unique haplotypes associated with Wolbachia were found at locations outside Australia. We also performed mathematical and qualitative analyses including modelling the expected dynamics of the Wolbachia and mtDNA variants during and after a release. Our analyses identified key features in haplotype frequency patterns to infer the presence of imperfect maternal transmission of Wolbachia, presence of immigration and possibly incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility. We demonstrate that ongoing screening of the mtDNA variants should provide information on maternal leakage and immigration, particularly in releases outside Australia. As we demonstrate in a case study, our models to track the Wolbachia dynamics can be successfully applied to temporal studies in natural populations or Wolbachia release programs, as long as there is co-occurring mtDNA variation that differentiates infected and uninfected populations.

  15. Dynamics of sexual populations structured by a space variable and a phenotypical trait

    KAUST Repository

    Mirrahimi, Sepideh

    2013-03-01

    We study sexual populations structured by a phenotypic trait and a space variable, in a non-homogeneous environment. Departing from an infinitesimal model, we perform an asymptotic limit to derive the system introduced in Kirkpatrick and Barton (1997). We then perform a further simplification to obtain a simple model. Thanks to this simpler equation, we can describe rigorously the dynamics of the population. In particular, we provide an explicit estimate of the invasion speed, or extinction speed of the species. Numerical computations show that this simple model provides a good approximation of the original infinitesimal model, and in particular describes quite well the evolution of the species\\' range. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  16. Seasonal population dynamics of the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) on strawberries in Southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, J L; Toscano, N C; Ballmer, G R

    2002-12-01

    The greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood), has recently become a major insect pest of strawberries in Southern California. The population dynamics of this pest were monitored over 2 yr in six commercial strawberry fields near the coastal communities of Oxnard and Ventura under two crop-production regimes, summer- and fall-planted strawberries. Adult whitefly numbers generally peaked during the February through May period for fall-planted strawberries and during the October through November period for summer-planted strawberries. Population densities varied greatly among fields within each regime and the differences were likely caused by surrounding alternate host crops.

  17. On Oscillatory Pattern of Malaria Dynamics in a Population with Temporary Immunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Tumwiine

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We use a model to study the dynamics of malaria in the human and mosquito population to explain the stability patterns of malaria. The model results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and occurs whenever the basic reproduction number, R0 is less than unity. We also note that when R0>1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the endemic equilibrium is stable. Numerical simulations show that recoveries and temporary immunity keep the populations at oscillation patterns and eventually converge to a steady state.

  18. Parasite population dynamics in pigs infected with Trichuris suis and Oesophagostomum dentatum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Heidi Huus; Andreasen, Annette; Kringel, Helene

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the population dynamics and potential interactions between Trichuris suis and Oesophagostomum dentatum in experimentally co-infected pigs, by quantification of parasite parameters such as egg excretion, worm recovery and worm location. Forty...... that O. dentatum was located more posteriorly in the gut. The changes in the Trichuris population were less prominent, but faecal egg counts, worm counts 5 wpi (57% recovered vs. 39%) and the proportion of infected animals at 10 wpi were higher in group OT compared to group T. The location of T. suis...

  19. Population Dynamics of Anastrepha ludens (Loew) (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Citrus Areas in Southern Tamaulipas, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanoye-Eligio, V; Barrientos-Lozano, L; Pérez-Castañeda, R; Gaona-García, G; Lara-Villalon, M

    2015-12-01

    An analysis of adult population fluctuation of Anastrepha ludens (Loew) was performed in southern Tamaulipas, Mexico from 2008 to 2011. The aim was to analyze population dynamics of A. ludens and its relationships with climatic factors in the citrus region of Llera, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Population densities were weekly examined to identify variation through the year and study period. Four periods were identified according to population size, amplitude, host availability and season of the year. The correlation between population density vs. rainfall and temperature (average, minimum and maximum) was determined by linear and multiple regression analyses. Simple linear regression analysis showed that population density with minimum temperature and rainfall was the most consistent correlation, whereas in multiple regression analysis, rainfall and maximum temperature showed more consistency. A seasonal association between the availability of commercial host, climatic variation, and population peaks of A. ludens was determined. This study may have practical implications for the design of specific control strategies, monitoring, and infestation prevention based on different phases of the pest through the year. This strategy, along with the area-wide approach implemented by the Plant Protection Service may lead to an optimization of material, financial and human resources.

  20. Ageing dynamics of a human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter Philipov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Research on how rising human capital affects the consequences of population ageing rarely considers the fact that the human capital of the elderly population is composed in a specific way that is shaped by their earlier schooling and work experience. For an elderly population of a fixed size and age-sex composition, this entails that the higher its human capital, the greater the total amount of public pensions to be paid. Objective: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between human capital and retiree benefits and its effect on population ageing from a demographic viewpoint. Methods: We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR, in which each person, whether in the numerator or the denominator, is assigned the number of units corresponding to his/her level of human capital. Based on data for Italy, we study the dynamics of this human-capital-specific OADR with the help of multistate population projections to 2107. Results: Our results show that under specific conditions a constant or moderately growing human capital may aggravate the consequences of population ageing rather than alleviate them. Conclusions: With those findings, the authors would like to stimulate the debate on the search for demographic and/or socio-economic solutions to the challenges posed by population ageing.

  1. Spatiotemporal variation in mechanisms driving regional-scale population dynamics of a Threatened grassland bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ethier, Danielle M; Koper, Nicola; Nudds, Thomas D

    2017-06-01

    To achieve national population targets for migratory birds, landscape-level conservation approaches are increasingly encouraged. However, knowledge of the mechanisms that drive spatiotemporal patterns in population dynamics are needed to inform scale-variant policy development. Using hierarchical Bayesian models and variable selection, we determined by which mechanism(s), and to what extent, changes in quantity and quality of surrogate grassland habitats contributed to regional variation in population trends of an obligatory grassland bird, Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorous). We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data to develop spatially explicit models of regional population trends over 25 years across 35 agricultural census divisions in Ontario, Canada. We measured the strength of evidence for effects of land-use change on population trends over the entire study period and over five subperiods. Over the entire study period, one region (Perth) displayed strong evidence of population decline (95% CI is entirely below 0); four regions displayed strong evidence of population increase (Bruce, Simcoe, Peterborough, and Northumberland). Population trends shifted spatially among subperiods, with more extreme declines later in time (1986-1990: 28% of 35 census divisions, 1991-1995: 46%, 1996-2000: 40%, 2001-2005: 66%, 2006-2010: 82%). Important predictors of spatial patterns in Bobolink population trends over the entire study period were human development and fragmentation. However, factors inferred to drive patterns in population trends were not consistent over space and time. This result underscores that effective threat identification (both spatially and temporally) and implementation of flexible, regionally tailored policies will be critical to realize efficient conservation of Bobolink and similar at-risk species.

  2. Molecular crowding causes narrowing of population heterogeneity and restricts internal dynamics in a protein

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Samsuzzoha; Kallianpur, Mamata V.; Udgaonkar, Jayant B.; Krishnamoorthy, G.

    2016-03-01

    Macromolecular crowding is a distinguishing property of intracellular media. Knowledge on the structure and dynamics of a protein in a crowded environment is essential for a complete understanding of its function. Reduction in intermolecular space could cause structural and functional alterations. Here, we have studied a model protein barstar to see how polyethylene glycol (PEG)-induced crowding affects its various structural states (native, unfolded and molten-globule-like) with different extents of change in conformational heterogeneity. Intramolecular distances and distance distributions were determined by time-resolved Förster resonance energy transfer from Trp53 to several acceptor sites by analysis of fluorescence decay kinetics using the Maximum Entropy Method. We observed PEG-induced narrowing of population distributions along with shifting of populations towards more compact states. Structural compactness also resulted in the slowing down of internal dynamics of the protein as revealed by fluorescence anisotropy decay kinetics of the fluorophore IAEDANS attached at several sites.

  3. Dynamic population artificial bee colony algorithm for multi-objective optimal power flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Ding

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic population (ABC-DP, which synergizes the idea of extended life-cycle evolving model to balance the exploration and exploitation tradeoff. The proposed ABC-DP is a more bee-colony-realistic model that the bee can reproduce and die dynamically throughout the foraging process and population size varies as the algorithm runs. ABC-DP is then used for solving the optimal power flow (OPF problem in power systems that considers the cost, loss, and emission impacts as the objective functions. The 30-bus IEEE test system is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed algorithm. The simulation results, which are also compared to nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII and multi-objective ABC (MOABC, are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

  4. Population dynamics of three songbird species in a nestbox population in Central Europe show effects of density, climate and competitive interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; van der Meer, J.; Fiedler, W.

    2011-01-01

    Unravelling the contributions of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long-term data, yet few studies have included interactions

  5. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  6. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  7. Population structure and dynamics of Magnaporthe grisea in the Indian Himalayas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, J; Nelson, R J; Zeigler, R S

    1999-07-01

    The population genetics of Magnaporthe grisea, the rice blast pathogen, were analyzed in a center of rice diversity (the Uttar Pradesh hills of the Indian Himalayas) using multilocus and single-, or low-copy, DNA markers. Based on DNA fingerprinting with the multilocus probe MGR586 and single-locus probes, 157 haplotypes clustered into 56 lineages (at >/=70% MGR586 band similarity, each with unique single-locus profiles) and high diversity indices were detected among 458 isolates collected from 29 sites during 1992-1995. Most valleys sampled had distinct populations (73% of the lineages were site specific) with some containing one or a few lineages, confirming the importance of clonal propagation, and others were very diverse. Widely distributed lineages suggested that migration occurs across the region and into the Indo-Gangetic plains. Repeated sampling at one site, Matli, (170 isolates, 1992-1995) yielded 19 lineages and diversity significantly greater than that reported from similar samples from Colombia and the Philippines. Analysis of allelic associations using pairwise comparisons and multilocus variance analysis failed to reject the hypothesis of gametic phase equilibrium. The Matli population shifted from highly diverse in 1992 to almost complete dominance by one lineage in 1995. Such population dynamics are consistent with recombination followed by differential survival of clonal descendants of recombinant progeny. At another site, Ranichauri, population (n = 84) composition changed from 2 to 11 lineages over 2 yr and yielded additional evidence for equilibrium. Sexually fertile and hermaphrodite isolates of both mating types were recovered from rice in both Matli and Ranichauri. We demonstrate that Himalayan M. grisea populations are diverse and dynamic and conclude that the structure of some populations may be affected to some extent by sexual recombination.

  8. Phenogenetic analysis of crayfishes Astacus astacus population dynamics after introduction into natural lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapunov, Valentin; Fedotov, Valery

    2016-04-01

    Phenogenetic indication is check of environment state by detectable characters of population, such as morphological variability, sex relation and sex dimorphism. This characters dynamics was followed within crayfish population during process of adaptation for pond. Crayfishes are stenobionts needing clean water. The pattern of different crayfish species is criteria for pond dynamics. Mathematical model describing occupation of lake by Nobel crayfishes Astacus astacus is describing by two variants. The first is general universal model, the second is model appropriate for lake Berezno from Pskov region (North - West of Russia). This situation may be considered as representative for different lakes taking into account ecological specific of every lake. Crayfishes were introduced into the lake at 1995. At 1998 population was reorganized by switching on genetic program of migration for maximal using of assimilating capacity of lake. During 2000 - 2015 population was stable and its characters were oscillated according to ecological state and automatic genetics processes. Population is monomorphic, the one morphotype is dominant. Sizes within this morpotype are distributed according to Gauss law (making correction for methods of catching). The square deviation increases in first generation and decreases in accordance to population adaptation. The Nobel crayfish is typical macrohydrobiont and may be used as biological indicator of ecological state of water. Such a method of monitoring is cheap and effective and may be used as adding to tradition monitoring manner. Parallel to monitoring of natural crayfish population the program of use of artificial test system for water quality was introduced in water-supply station of St. Petersburg.

  9. Recession of Tussilago farfara (L. population from the agro coenose as a result of cultivation abandonment. I The effect of fallowing on population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Namura-Ochalska

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluates the effect of fallowing on seasonal and multiyear dynamics, as well as on the spatial structure of Tussilago farfara population. In four years turfing and rapid increase in the size of grass populations - those of Agropyron repens (L. PB. and Dactylis glomerata caused the elimination of Tussilago farfara population. The studies have showed that a decrease in the population size resulted from hampering of both vegetative and generative reproduction. The interspecific competition for available space seems to be a crucial factor limiting emergence of new shoots. In the agrocoenose big population size of Tussilago farfara remained throughout the studies.

  10. Uncoupling the effects of seed predation and seed dispersal by granivorous ants on plant population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Arnan

    Full Text Available Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation and benefits (seed dispersal, the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength.

  11. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  12. Uncoupling the effects of seed predation and seed dispersal by granivorous ants on plant population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength.

  13. Evaluation of damage, food attractants and population dynamics of strawberry sap beetle

    OpenAIRE

    Fornari,Rodrigo A; Machota Junior,Ruben; Bernardi, Daniel; Botton, Marcos; Pastori,Patrik Luiz

    2013-01-01

    The strawberry sap beetle [Lobiopa insularis (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)] is one of the most important pests of strawberry crops. This study aimed to determine the relationship between strawberry fruit maturation stages and the feeding of sap beetle in laboratory and to evaluate food attractants and population dynamics of this species during the crop season. To evaluate the feeding preference of strawberry fruits 'Camarosa' at different maturation stages [green (G), semi-ripe (SM) a...

  14. Population Dynamics in Cold Gases Resulting from the Long-Range Dipole-Dipole Interaction

    CERN Document Server

    Mandilara, A; Pillet, P

    2009-01-01

    We consider the effect of the long range dipole-dipole interaction on the excitation exchange dynamics of cold two-level atomic gase in the conditions where the size of the atomic cloud is large as compared to the wavelength of the dipole transition. We show that this interaction results in population redistribution across the atomic cloud and in specific spectra of the spontaneous photons emitted at different angles with respect to the direction of atomic polarization.

  15. A distributional solution to a hyperbolic problem arising in population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Kmit

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We consider a generalization of the Lotka-McKendrick problem describing the dynamics of an age-structured population with time-dependent vital rates. The generalization consists in allowing the initial and the boundary conditions to be derivatives of the Dirac measure. We construct a unique D'-solution in the framework of intrinsic multiplication of distributions. We also investigate the regularity of this solution.

  16. A General Discrete Time Model of Population Dynamics in the Presence of an Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Izzo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a set of difference equations which generalizes that proposed in the work of G. Izzo and A. Vecchio (2007 and represents the discrete counterpart of a larger class of continuous model concerning the dynamics of an infection in an organism or in a host population. The limiting behavior of this new discrete model is studied and a threshold parameter playing the role of the basic reproduction number is derived.

  17. Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, V.; Hostetler, J.A.; Hines, T.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Percival, H.F.; Oli, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (?? S=0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, S would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also

  18. Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Nestel, David

    2015-01-01

    Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics.

  19. A population-level model from the microscopic dynamics in Escherichia coli chemotaxis via Langevin approximation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Zhuo-Ran; Wu Tai-Lin; Ouyang Qi; Tu Yu-Hai

    2012-01-01

    Recent extensive studies of Escherichia coli (E.coli) chemotaxis have achieved a deep understanding of its microscopic control dynamics.As a result,various quantitatively predictive models have been developed to describe the chemotactic behavior of E.coli motion.However,a population-level partial differential equation (PDE) that rationally incorporates such microscopic dynamics is still insufficient.Apart from the traditional Keller-Segel (K-S) equation,many existing population-level models developed from the microscopic dynamics are integro-PDEs.The difficulty comes mainly from cell tumbles which yield a velocity jumping process.Here,we propose a Langevin approximation method that avoids such a difficulty without appreciable loss of precision.The resulting model not only quantitatively reproduces the results of pathway-based single-cell simulators,but also provides new inside information on the mechanism of E.coli chemotaxis.Our study demonstrates a possible alternative in establishing a simple population-level model that allows for the complex microscopic mechanisms in bacterial chemotaxis.

  20. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  1. Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzetta, Giorgio; Tagliapietra, Valentina; Perkins, Sarah E; Hauffe, Heidi C; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Rizzoli, Annapaola

    2017-02-19

    Stochastic processes play an important role in the infectious disease dynamics of wildlife, especially in species subject to large population oscillations. Here we study the case of a free ranging population of yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis) in northern Italy, where circulation of Dobrava-Belgrade hantavirus (DOBV) has been detected intermittently since 2001, until an outbreak emerged in 2010. We analyzed the transmission dynamics of the recent outbreak using a computational model that accounts for seasonal changes of the host population and territorial behavior. Model parameters were informed by capture-mark-recapture data collected over 14 years and longitudinal seroprevalence data from 2010 to 2013. The intermittent observation of DOBV before 2010 can be interpreted as repeated stochastic fadeouts after multiple introductions of infectious rodents migrating from neighboring areas. We estimated that only 20% of introductions in a naïve host population results in sustained transmission after two years, despite an effective reproduction number well above the epidemic threshold (mean 4.5, 95% credible intervals, CI: 0.65-15.8). Following the 2010 outbreak, DOBV has become endemic in the study area, but we predict a constant probability of about 4.7% per year that infection dies out, following large population drops in winter. In the absence of stochastic fadeout, viral prevalence is predicted to continue its growth to an oscillating equilibrium around a value of 24% (95% CI: 3-57%). We presented an example of invasion dynamics of a zoonotic virus where stochastic fadeout have played a major role and may induce future extinction of the endemic infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Line Emission from Radiation-Pressurized HII Region II: Dynamics and Population Synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Verdolini, Silvia; Krumholz, Mark R; Matzner, Christopher D; Tielens, Alexander G G M

    2013-01-01

    Optical and infrared emission lines from HII regions are an important diagnostic used to study galaxies, but interpretation of these lines requires significant modeling of both the internal structure and dynamical evolution of the emitting regions. Most of the models in common use today assume that HII region dynamics are dominated by the expansion of stellar wind bubbles, and have neglected the contribution of radiation pressure to the dynamics, and in some cases also to the internal structure. However, recent observations of nearby galaxies suggest that neither assumption is justified, motivating us to revisit the question of how HII region line emission depends on the physics of winds and radiation pressure. In a companion paper we construct models of single HII regions including and excluding radiation pressure and winds, and in this paper we describe a population synthesis code that uses these models to simulate galactic collections of HII regions with varying physical parameters. We show that the choice...

  3. Development of a Dynamic Population Balance Plant Simulator for Mineral Processing Circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Khoshnam

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Operational variables of a mineral processing circuit are subjected to different variations. Steady-statesimulation of processes provides an estimate of their ideal stable performance whereas their dynamicsimulation predicts the effects of the variations on the processes or their subsequent processes. In thispaper, a dynamic simulator containing some of the major equipment of mineral processing circuits(i.e. ball mill, cone crusher, screen, hydrocyclone, mechanical flotation cell, tank leaching andconveyor belt was developed. The dynamic simulator of each mentioned unit was also developedaccording to population balance models with the help of MATLAB/Simulink environment and wasverified against the data from the literature. Comminution and separation sections were linked usingempirical models which correlate the separation and extraction kinetics to particle size. Applying thedeveloped simulator, the dynamic behavior of a grinding-leaching circuit was analyzed and the resultsshowed that such simulations are required for both designing and controlling the circuits.

  4. Coherence and population dynamics of chlorophyll excitations in FCP complex: Two-dimensional spectroscopy study

    CERN Document Server

    Butkus, Vytautas; Augulis, Ramūnas; Gall, Andrew; Büchel, Claudia; Robert, Bruno; Zigmantas, Donatas; Valkunas, Leonas; Abramavicius, Darius

    2015-01-01

    The energy transfer processes and coherent phenomena in the fucoxanthin-chlorophyll protein complex, which is responsible for the light harvesting function in marine algae diatoms, were investigated at 77 K by using two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. Experiments performed on the femtosecond and picosecond timescales led to separation of spectral dynamics, witnessing evolutions of coherence and population states of the system in the spectral region of ${\\rm Q}_{y}$ transitions of chlorophylls $a$ and $c$. Analysis of the coherence dynamics allowed us to identify chlorophyll (Chl) $a$ and fucoxanthin intramolecular vibrations dominating over the first few picoseconds. Closer inspection of the spectral region of the ${\\rm Q}_{y}$ transition of Chl $c$ revealed previously not identified mutually non-interacting chlorophyll $c$ states participating in femtosecond or picosecond energy transfer to the Chl $a$ molecules. Consideration of separated coherent and incoherent dynamics allowed us to hypothesize the v...

  5. Coherence and population dynamics of chlorophyll excitations in FCP complex: Two-dimensional spectroscopy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butkus, Vytautas; Gelzinis, Andrius; Augulis, Ramūnas; Gall, Andrew; Büchel, Claudia; Robert, Bruno; Zigmantas, Donatas; Valkunas, Leonas; Abramavicius, Darius

    2015-06-07

    Energy transfer processes and coherent phenomena in the fucoxanthin-chlorophyll protein complex, which is responsible for the light harvesting function in marine algae diatoms, were investigated at 77 K by using two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. Experiments performed on femtosecond and picosecond timescales led to separation of spectral dynamics, witnessing evolutions of coherence and population states of the system in the spectral region of Qy transitions of chlorophylls a and c. Analysis of the coherence dynamics allowed us to identify chlorophyll (Chl) a and fucoxanthin intramolecular vibrations dominating over the first few picoseconds. Closer inspection of the spectral region of the Qy transition of Chl c revealed previously not identified, mutually non-interacting chlorophyll c states participating in femtosecond or picosecond energy transfer to the Chl a molecules. Consideration of separated coherent and incoherent dynamics allowed us to hypothesize the vibrations-assisted coherent energy transfer between Chl c and Chl a and the overall spatial arrangement of chlorophyll molecules.

  6. Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. I. Training and validating population dynamics equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D

    2014-08-06

    Failure to understand evolutionary dynamics has been hypothesized as limiting our ability to control biological systems. An increasing awareness of similarities between macroscopic ecosystems and cellular tissues has inspired optimism that game theory will provide insights into the progression and control of cancer. To realize this potential, the ability to compare game theoretic models and experimental measurements of population dynamics should be broadly disseminated. In this tutorial, we present an analysis method that can be used to train parameters in game theoretic dynamics equations, used to validate the resulting equations, and used to make predictions to challenge these equations and to design treatment strategies. The data analysis techniques in this tutorial are adapted from the analysis of reaction kinetics using the method of initial rates taught in undergraduate general chemistry courses. Reliance on computer programming is avoided to encourage the adoption of these methods as routine bench activities.

  7. Dynamics of a local badger (Meles meles) population in the Netherlands over the years 1983-2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apeldoorn, van R.C.; Vink, J.; Matyástík, T.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term data on badger population dynamics are scarce. For 19 years data on badger and sett numbers were collected by direct observation of a Local population in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Analysis of these data show two different patterns of population growth. The first shows a sto

  8. Habitat-specific impacts of multiple consumers on plant population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maron, John L; Kauffman, Matthew J

    2006-01-01

    Multiple consumers often attack seeds, seedlings, and adult plants, but their population-level consequences remain uncertain. We examined how insect and small mammal consumers influenced the demography and abundance of the perennial shrub, bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus). In grassland and dune habitats we established replicate experimental lupine populations in 81-m2 plots that were either protected from, or exposed to, herbivorous voles and granivorous mice (via fencing) and/or root feeding insects (via insecticide treatment). Populations were initiated with transplanted seedlings in 1999 and 2000. We followed the demography of these cohorts, subsequent generations, and the seed bank for 5.5 years. Voles and insects killed many seedlings in dune (1999 only) and grassland (1999 and 2000) habitats. After 2000, insects and voles had minimal effects on seedling or adult survival. Seed predation by granivorous mice, however, greatly depressed seedling recruitment, resulting in lower adult lupine abundance in control plots vs. those protected from rodents. In grasslands, initial effects of voles and insects on seedling survival produced large differences among treatments in adult plant density and the cumulative number of seeds produced throughout the experiment. Differences among grassland populations in seed rain, however, had little influence on the magnitude of seedling recruitment into this habitat. Instead, recruitment out of a preexisting seed bank compensated for the lack of seed production in populations exposed to consumers. Shading by dense adults in plots protected from consumers limited seedling establishment within these populations. Although differences among populations in cumulative seed rain did not influence adult establishment, populations protected from consumers accumulated substantially larger seed banks than controls. These results illustrate how density dependence, habitat-specific seed dynamics, and particular demographic impacts of consumers

  9. Approximate Inference for Time-Varying Interactions and Macroscopic Dynamics of Neural Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obermayer, Klaus

    2017-01-01

    The models in statistical physics such as an Ising model offer a convenient way to characterize stationary activity of neural populations. Such stationary activity of neurons may be expected for recordings from in vitro slices or anesthetized animals. However, modeling activity of cortical circuitries of awake animals has been more challenging because both spike-rates and interactions can change according to sensory stimulation, behavior, or an internal state of the brain. Previous approaches modeling the dynamics of neural interactions suffer from computational cost; therefore, its application was limited to only a dozen neurons. Here by introducing multiple analytic approximation methods to a state-space model of neural population activity, we make it possible to estimate dynamic pairwise interactions of up to 60 neurons. More specifically, we applied the pseudolikelihood approximation to the state-space model, and combined it with the Bethe or TAP mean-field approximation to make the sequential Bayesian estimation of the model parameters possible. The large-scale analysis allows us to investigate dynamics of macroscopic properties of neural circuitries underlying stimulus processing and behavior. We show that the model accurately estimates dynamics of network properties such as sparseness, entropy, and heat capacity by simulated data, and demonstrate utilities of these measures by analyzing activity of monkey V4 neurons as well as a simulated balanced network of spiking neurons. PMID:28095421

  10. Population dynamics of sinking phytoplankton in light-limited environments: simulation techniques and critical parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huisman, Jef; Sommeijer, Ben

    2002-10-01

    Phytoplankton use light for photosynthesis, and the light flux decreases with depth. As a result of this simple light dependence, reaction-advection-diffusion models describing the dynamics of phytoplankton species contain an integral over depth. That is, models that simulate phytoplankton dynamics in relation to mixing processes generally have the form of an integro-partial differential equation (integro-PDE). Integro-PDEs are computationally more demanding than standard PDEs. Here, we outline a reliable and efficient technique for numerical simulation of integro-PDEs. The simulation technique is illustrated by several examples on the population dynamics of sinking phytoplankton, using both single-species models and competition models with several phytoplankton species. Our results confirm recent findings that Sverdrup's critical-depth theory breaks down if turbulent mixing is reduced below a critical turbulence. In fact, our results show that suitable conditions for bloom development of sinking phytoplankton depend on a number of critical parameters, including a minimal depth of the thermocline, a maximal depth of the thermocline, a minimal turbulence, and a maximal turbulence. We therefore conclude that models that do not carefully consider the population dynamics of phytoplankton in relation to the turbulence structure of the water column may easily lead to erroneous predictions.

  11. Oenological prefermentation practices strongly impact yeast population dynamics and alcoholic fermentation kinetics in Chardonnay grape must.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albertin, Warren; Miot-Sertier, Cécile; Bely, Marina; Marullo, Philippe; Coulon, Joana; Moine, Virginie; Colonna-Ceccaldi, Benoit; Masneuf-Pomarede, Isabelle

    2014-05-16

    Yeast species of Hanseniaspora and Candida genus are predominant during the early stages of winemaking, while species of Metschnikowia, Pichia, Zygoascus, Issatchenkia, Torulaspora and other genera are present at lower population levels. The impact of common oenological practices on yeast dynamics during the prefermentative stage and the early stage of alcoholic fermentation (AF) remains elusive. In this work, the effect of four prefermentative oenological practices (clarification degree, temperature, sulphite and starter yeast addition) on yeast dynamics was evaluated in a Chardonnay grape must. The growth curves of four genus or species, namely Saccharomyces spp., Hanseniaspora spp., Candida zemplinina and Torulaspora delbrueckii, were followed by quantitative PCR. The fermentation kinetics were also recorded, as well as the production of acetic acid. Variance analysis allowed determining the effect of each practice and their interaction factors, as well as their relative importance on yeast dynamics and fermentation kinetics. Our experimental design showed that the population dynamics of the four species were differently impacted by the oenological practices, with some species being more sensitive than others to the clarification degree (C. zemplinina), sulphite addition (Saccharomyces spp.), starter yeast inoculation (Hanseniaspora spp.) or prefermentation temperature (T. delbrueckii). Significant interaction effects between practices were revealed, highlighting the interest of experimental design allowing interaction analysis, as some factors may buffer the effect of other ones. Hanseniaspora genus showed atypical behaviour: growth dynamics showed a decrease during AF that we interpreted as early cellular lysis. In conclusion, this study provides new insights on the impact of common oenological practices on the dynamics of non-Saccharomyces yeast that will be useful for a better management of mixed fermentation between S. cerevisiae and non

  12. The habits of highly effective phages: population dynamics as a framework for identifying therapeutic phages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Bull

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of bacteriophages as antibacterial agents is being actively researched on a global scale. Typically, the phages used are isolated from the wild by plating on the bacteria of interest, and a far larger set of candidate phages is often available than can be used in any application. When an excess of phages is available, how should the best phages be identified? Here we consider phage-bacterial population dynamics as a basis for evaluating and predicting phage success. A central question is whether the innate dynamical properties of phages are the determinants of success, or instead, whether extrinsic, indirect effects can be responsible. We address the dynamical perspective, motivated in part by the absence of dynamics in previously suggested principles of phage therapy. Current mathematical models of bacterial-phage dynamics do not capture the realities of in vivo dynamics, nor is this likely to change, but they do give insight to qualitative properties that may be generalizable. In particular, phage adsorption rate may be critical to treatment success, so understanding the effects of the in vivo environment on host availability may allow prediction of useful phages prior to in vivo experimentation. Principles for predicting efficacy may be derived by developing a greater understanding of the in vivo system, or such principles could be determined empirically by comparing phages with known differences in their dynamic properties. The comparative approach promises to be a powerful method of discovering the key to phage success. We offer five recommendations for future study: (i compare phages differing in treatment efficacy to identify the phage properties associated with success, (ii assay dynamics in vivo, (iii understand mechanisms of bacterial escape from phages, (iv test phages in model infections that are relevant to the intended clinical applications, and (v develop new classes of models for phage growth in spatially heterogeneous

  13. The Effects of Rainfall on the Population Dynamics of an Endangered Aquatic Plant, Schoenoplectus gemmifer (Cyperaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitamura, Koshi; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Tainaka, Kei-Ichi; Yoshimura, Jin

    2016-01-01

    The conservation of aquatic plants in river ecosystems should consider the wash-out (away) problem resulting from severe rainfall. The aquatic plant Schoenoplectus gemmifer is an endangered species endemic to Japan. Our previous study reported that the population size of S. gemmifer in Hamamatsu city, Japan, had decreased by one-tenth because many individuals had been washed out by a series of heavy rains in 2004. However, there is insufficient information on the ecological nature of this endangered aquatic plant for adequate conservation. In this paper, we report the population dynamics of one population in Hamamatsu city from 2004 to 2012 in relation to rainfall. We surveyed the number and growing location of all living individuals in the population 300 times during the study period. To examine the temporal changes of individual plants, we also counted the number of culms for 38 individuals in four observations among 300 records. Decreases and increases in the population size of this plant were associated with washing out and the settlement of gemmae (vegetative propagation), respectively. The major cause of the reduction in the population size was an increase in the number of washed-out individuals and not the decreased settlement of gemmae. The wash-out rates for small and large individuals were not significantly different. Small individuals having a stream form with linear leaves resisted flooding, and large individuals were often partially torn off by flooding events. Modification of river basins to reduce the flow velocity may be effective for the conservation of S. gemmifer.

  14. Reproduction and Population Dynamics as Biotypic Markers of Russian Wheat Aphid Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Watson Ngenya

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Russian wheat aphid Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov is widely established in wheat-growing countries where it causes significant economic losses. The development and use of Russian wheat aphid (RWA-resistant wheat varieties has been constrained by the variation in resident RWA populations and the evolution of virulent biotypes. An experiment was set up at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO, Njoro, to characterize RWA populations based on phenotypic characteristics of reproduction, development and population dynamics. RWA populations from the regions of Eldoret, Mau Narok and Njoro were used in the study. A factorial experiment was set up in randomized complete block design replicated eleven times. A single day-old nymph was placed on a new, fully-open leaf in a 0.5 cm-diameter clear plastic straw leaf cage and observed daily for its entire lifetime. The results showed that there were variations in aphid lifespan, reproductive longevity and aphid fecundity between populations, indicating that the phenotypic markers used to determine biotypes were good enough to show distinct biotypes among populations of the RWA in Kenya. Further, the study concluded that the use of phenotypic life and reproductive markers was a valid way of characterizing biotypes of RWA worldwide.

  15. Reproduction and Population Dynamics as Biotypic Markers of Russian Wheat Aphid Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngenya, Watson; Malinga, Joyce; Tabu, Isaiah; Masinde, Emily

    2016-04-02

    Russian wheat aphid Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov) is widely established in wheat-growing countries where it causes significant economic losses. The development and use of Russian wheat aphid (RWA)-resistant wheat varieties has been constrained by the variation in resident RWA populations and the evolution of virulent biotypes. An experiment was set up at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO), Njoro, to characterize RWA populations based on phenotypic characteristics of reproduction, development and population dynamics. RWA populations from the regions of Eldoret, Mau Narok and Njoro were used in the study. A factorial experiment was set up in randomized complete block design replicated eleven times. A single day-old nymph was placed on a new, fully-open leaf in a 0.5 cm-diameter clear plastic straw leaf cage and observed daily for its entire lifetime. The results showed that there were variations in aphid lifespan, reproductive longevity and aphid fecundity between populations, indicating that the phenotypic markers used to determine biotypes were good enough to show distinct biotypes among populations of the RWA in Kenya. Further, the study concluded that the use of phenotypic life and reproductive markers was a valid way of characterizing biotypes of RWA worldwide.

  16. Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

    2011-04-01

    Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms.

  17. Density-dependent population dynamics in larvae of the dragonfly Pachydiplax longipennis: a field experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Buskirk, J

    1987-05-01

    Several features of dragonfly population biology suggest that population regulation occurs in the larval stage. This study was designed to determine if density-dependent interactions among larval odonates can affect survival, growth and emergence. First-instar larvae of the dragonfly Pachydiplax longipennis were raised in outdoor experimental ponds at initial densities of 38, 152, and 608 larvae · m(-2), under two levels of food availability. Food availability was supplemented in half the pools by volumetric addition of zooplankton every other day. Pools in the low food treatment did not receive the zooplankton supplement.There was a strong negative effect of density on the mean growth rate of survivors, which included both emerging tenerals and individuals overwintering in the larval stage. A higher proportion emerged from low density than high density pools. Metamorphs from high density populations were smaller and emerged slightly later than those from low density, but the absolute number of metamorphs did not differ significantly among density treatments. Food supplementation significantly increased the proportion of overwintering larvae. There were no significant food-by-density interactions, indicating that food and density acted independently on larval population dynamics. Density-dependent mechanisms can clearly contribute to odonate population regulation, especially by controlling the number of larvae which emerge and the average age at reproduction. Population-level responses to density may be a result of interference among larvae.

  18. Dynamic, Interactive and Visual Analysis of Population Distribution and Mobility Dynamics in an Urban Environment Using the Mobility Explorer Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Peters-Anders

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the extent to which a mobile data source can be utilised to generate new information intelligence for decision-making in smart city planning processes. In this regard, the Mobility Explorer framework is introduced and applied to the City of Vienna (Austria by using anonymised mobile phone data from a mobile phone service provider. This framework identifies five necessary elements that are needed to develop complex planning applications. As part of the investigation and experiments a new dynamic software tool, called Mobility Explorer, has been designed and developed based on the requirements of the planning department of the City of Vienna. As a result, the Mobility Explorer enables city stakeholders to interactively visualise the dynamic diurnal population distribution, mobility patterns and various other complex outputs for planning needs. Based on the experiences during the development phase, this paper discusses mobile data issues, presents the visual interface, performs various user-defined analyses, demonstrates the application’s usefulness and critically reflects on the evaluation results of the citizens’ motion exploration that reveal the great potential of mobile phone data in smart city planning but also depict its limitations. These experiences and lessons learned from the Mobility Explorer application development provide useful insights for other cities and planners who want to make informed decisions using mobile phone data in their city planning processes through dynamic visualisation of Call Data Record (CDR data.

  19. Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarvey, J A; Franco, R B; Palumbo, J D; Hnasko, R; Stanker, L; Mitloehner, F M

    2013-06-01

    To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population structures compared using 16S rRNA gene libraries containing approximately 1900 sequences each. Cultural and chemical analyses were also performed to complement the 16S gene sequence data. Sequence analysis revealed significant differences (P alfalfa-derived library contained mostly sequences associated with the Gammaproteobacteria (including the genera: Enterobacter, Erwinia and Pantoea); the ensiled material contained mostly sequences associated with the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) (including the genera: Lactobacillus, Pediococcus and Lactococcus). Exposure to air resulted in even greater percentages of LAB, especially among the genus Lactobacillus, and a significant drop in bacterial diversity. In-depth 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis revealed significant bacterial population structure changes during ensiling and again during exposure to air. This in-depth description of the bacterial population dynamics that occurred during ensiling and simulated feed out expands our knowledge of these processes. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology No claim to US Government works.

  20. Language evolution and population dynamics in a system of two interacting species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosmidis, Kosmas; Halley, John M.; Argyrakis, Panos

    2005-08-01

    We use Monte Carlo simulations and assumptions from evolutionary game theory in order to study the evolution of words and the population dynamics of a system made of two interacting species which initially speak two different languages. The species are characterized by their identity, vocabulary, and have different initial fitness, i.e. reproduction capability. We investigate how different initial fitness affects the vocabulary of the species or the population dynamics by leading to a permanent populational advantage. We further find that the spatial distributions of the species may cause the system to exhibit pattern formation or segregation. We show that an initial fitness advantage, even though very quickly balanced, leads to better spatial arrangement and enhances survival probabilities of the species. In most cases the system will arrive at a final state where both languages coexist. However, in cases where one species greatly outnumbers the other in population and fitness, then only one species survives with its “final” language having a slightly richer vocabulary than its initial language. Thus, our results offer an explanation for the existence and origin of synonyms in spoken languages.

  1. About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Nedorezov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.

  2. Dynamic Heterogeneity of the Heart Valve Interstitial Cell Population in Mitral Valve Health and Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tori E. Horne

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The heart valve interstitial cell (VIC population is dynamic and thought to mediate lay down and maintenance of the tri-laminar extracellular matrix (ECM structure within the developing and mature valve throughout life. Disturbances in the contribution and distribution of valve ECM components are detrimental to biomechanical function and associated with disease. This pathological process is associated with activation of resident VICs that in the absence of disease reside as quiescent cells. While these paradigms have been long standing, characterization of this abundant and ever-changing valve cell population is incomplete. Here we examine the expression pattern of Smooth muscle α-actin, Periostin, Twist1 and Vimentin in cultured VICs, heart valves from healthy embryonic, postnatal and adult mice, as well as mature valves from human patients and established mouse models of disease. We show that the VIC population is highly heterogeneous and phenotypes are dependent on age, species, location, and disease state. Furthermore, we identify phenotypic diversity across common models of mitral valve disease. These studies significantly contribute to characterizing the VIC population in health and disease and provide insights into the cellular dynamics that maintain valve structure in healthy adults and mediate pathologic remodeling in disease states.

  3. Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam

    2010-01-01

    Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un

  4. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means

  5. Single-cell protein dynamics reproduce universal fluctuations in cell populations

    CERN Document Server

    Brenner, Naama; Rotella, James S; Salman, Hanna

    2015-01-01

    Protein fluctuations in cell populations have recently been shown to exhibit a universal distribution shape under a broad range of biological realizations. Here, measuring protein content in individual bacteria continuously over ~70 generations, we show that single-cell trajectories fluctuate around their average with the same distribution shape as the population, i.e. their relative fluctuations are ergodic. Analysis of these temporal trajectories reveals that one effective random variable, sampled once each cell cycle, suffices to reconstruct the distribution from the trajectory. This in turn implies that cellular microscopic processes are strongly buffered and population-level protein distributions are insensitive to details of the intracellular dynamics. Probing them thus requires searching for novel universality-breaking experimental perturbations.

  6. Cell mass and cell cycle dynamics of an asynchronous budding yeast population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita; Carlquist, Magnus; Lundin, Luisa

    2013-01-01

    consumption observed during batch cultivation. The good agreement between the proposed multi-scale model (a population balance model [PBM] coupled to an unstructured model) and experimental data (both the overall physiology and cell size and cell cycle distributions) indicates that a mechanistic model...... of model predictions for cell property distributions against experimental data is scarce. This study focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of the dynamics of cell size and cell cycle position distributions, of a population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, in response to the substrate......Despite traditionally regarded as identical, cells in a microbial cultivation present a distribution of phenotypic traits, forming a heterogeneous cell population. Moreover, the degree of heterogeneity is notably enhanced by changes in micro-environmental conditions. A major development...

  7. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Storkey, Jonathan; Holst, Niels; Bøjer, Ole Mission;

    2015-01-01

    A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed......, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters....... These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated ‘fitness contours’ (defined as population growth rates) within...

  8. Existence and Uniqueness of Positive and Bounded Solutions of a Discrete Population Model with Fractional Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Macías-Díaz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We depart from the well-known one-dimensional Fisher’s equation from population dynamics and consider an extension of this model using Riesz fractional derivatives in space. Positive and bounded initial-boundary data are imposed on a closed and bounded domain, and a fully discrete form of this fractional initial-boundary-value problem is provided next using fractional centered differences. The fully discrete population model is implicit and linear, so a convenient vector representation is readily derived. Under suitable conditions, the matrix representing the implicit problem is an inverse-positive matrix. Using this fact, we establish that the discrete population model is capable of preserving the positivity and the boundedness of the discrete initial-boundary conditions. Moreover, the computational solubility of the discrete model is tackled in the closing remarks.

  9. Evolution of Wheat streak mosaic virus: dynamics of population growth within plants may explain limited variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Roy; Stenger, Drake C

    2003-01-01

    Like many other plant RNA viruses, Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) sequence diversity within and among infected plants is low given the large number of virions produced. This may be explained by considering aspects of plant virus life history. Intracellular replication of RNA viruses is predominately linear, not exponential, which means that the rate at which mutations accumulate also is linear. Bottlenecks during systemic movement further limit diversity. Analysis of mixed infections with two WSMV isolates suggests that about four viral genomes participate in systemic invasion of each tiller. Low effective population size increases the role of stochastic processes on dynamics of plant virus population genetics and evolution. Despite low pair-wise diversity among isolates, the number of polymorphic sites within the U.S. population is about the same as between divergent strains or a sister species. Characteristics of polymorphism in the WSMV coat protein gene suggest that most variation appears neutral.

  10. [Population of entophytic bacteria in maize roots and its dynamic analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zenggui; Zhuang, Jinghua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Xian; Tang, Shuge

    2004-08-01

    In 2001-2002, 14 maize cultivars in Liaoning Province were used for the analysis of their entophytic bacteria population. The entophytic bacteria strains with a higher frequency in maize roots were Bacillus spp., Enterobacter spp., Serratia spp., Pseudomonas spp., Xanthomonas spp., Clavibacter spp., Bacillus spp., Enterobacter spp. and Serratia spp. Comparatively, Bacillus spp. was the most prevalent entophytic bacterium, including 8 species, B. subtilis, B. megaterium, B. cereus, B. licheniformis, B. anthracis, B. mycoides, B. pumilus and B. circulans, and with an average isolation frequency of 75.5% at seedling stage and 77.6% at adult stage. There existed significant differences in the population and dynamics of endophytic bacteria among maize cultivars and growth periods, and a significant correlation was found between maize genetic background and entophytic bacteria population.

  11. Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Restrepo, Juan M [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Rael, Rosalyn C [UNIV OF ARIZONA

    2009-01-01

    We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

  12. Population Dynamics of Heterodera glycines and Soybean Response in Soils Treated with Selected Nematicides and Herbicides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, D P; Corbin, F T; Nelson, L A

    1983-07-01

    Two field experiments were conducted in two locations to determine the effects of the nematicides aldicarb, phenamiphos, and ethoprop and/or the herbicides alachlor, linuron, or metribuzin on the population dynamics of Heterodera glycines and soybean growth and yield. Population densities of H. glycines were greater, at some time during the growing season, in several treatments with alachlor alone and in combination with nematicides. Numbers of H. glycines at harvest were greater in plots treated with aldicarb than in those treated with ethoprop or phenamiphos. The numbers in aldicarb treated plots were generally reduced when plots also received a herbicide. Soybean yields were negatively correlated with numbers of H. glycines eggs and juveniles in early to mid season but positively correlated with late season population densities.

  13. Effects of ocean acidification on population dynamics and community structure of crustose coralline algae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordoñez, Alexandra; Doropoulos, Christopher; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo

    2014-06-01

    Calcification and growth of crustose coralline algae (CCA) are affected by elevated seawater pCO2 and associated changes in carbonate chemistry. However, the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on population and community-level responses of CCA have barely been investigated. We explored changes in community structure and population dynamics (size structure and reproduction) of CCA in response to OA. Recruited from an experimental flow-through system, CCA settled onto the walls of plastic aquaria and developed under exposure to one of three pCO2 treatments (control [present day, 389±6 ppm CO2], medium [753±11 ppm], and high [1267±19 ppm]). Elevated pCO2 reduced total CCA abundance and affected community structure, in particular the density of the dominant species Pneophyllum sp. and Porolithon onkodes. Meanwhile, the relative abundance of P. onkodes declined from 24% under control CO2 to 8.3% in high CO2 (65% change), while the relative abundance of Pneophyllum sp. remained constant. Population size structure of P. onkodes differed significantly across treatments, with fewer larger individuals under high CO2. In contrast, the population size structure and number of reproductive structures (conceptacles) per crust of Pneophyllum sp. was similar across treatments. The difference in the magnitude of the response of species abundance and population size structure between species may have the potential to induce species composition changes in the future. These results demonstrate that the impacts of OA on key coral reef builders go beyond declines in calcification and growth, and suggest important changes to aspects of population dynamics and community ecology.

  14. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  15. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  16. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  17. Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ulbrich

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

  18. Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

    2010-10-26

    Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.

  19. Impact of unintentional selective harvesting on the population dynamics of red grouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnefeld, Nils; Reuman, Daniel C; Baines, David; Milner-Gulland, E J

    2011-11-01

    1. The effect of selective exploitation of certain age, stage or sex classes (e.g., trophy hunting) on population dynamics is relatively well studied in fisheries and sexually dimorphic mammals. 2. Harvesting of terrestrial species with no morphological differences visible between the different age and sex classes (monomorphic species) is usually assumed to be nonselective because monomorphicity makes intentionally selective harvesting pointless and impractical. But harvesting of the red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus), a monomorphic species, was recently shown to be unintentionally selective. This study uses a sex- and age-specific model to explore the previously unresearched effects of unintentional harvesting selectivity. 3. We examine the effects of selectivity on red grouse dynamics by considering models with and without selectivity. Our models include territoriality and parasitism, two mechanisms known to be important for grouse dynamics. 4. We show that the unintentional selectivity of harvesting that occurs in red grouse decreases population yield compared with unselective harvesting at high harvest rates. Selectivity also dramatically increases extinction risk at high harvest rates. 5. Selective harvesting strengthens the 3- to 13-year red grouse population cycle, suggesting that the selectivity of harvesting is a previously unappreciated factor contributing to the cycle. 6. The additional extinction risk introduced by harvesting selectivity provides a quantitative justification for typically implemented 20-40% harvest rates, which are below the maximum sustainable yield that could be taken, given the observed population growth rates of red grouse. 7. This study shows the possible broad importance of investigating in future research whether unintentionally selective harvesting occurs on other species.

  20. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.