The Impact of Inventory Management on Stock-Outs of Essential Drugs in Sub-Saharan Africa: Secondary Analysis of a Field Experiment in Zambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Ngai-Hang Z; Chen, Ana; Yadav, Prashant; Gallien, Jérémie

2016-01-01

To characterize the impact of widespread inventory management policies on stock-outs of essential drugs in Zambia's health clinics and develop related recommendations. Daily clinic storeroom stock levels of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) products in 2009-2010 were captured in 145 facilities through photography and manual transcription of paper forms, then used to determine historical stock-out levels and estimate demand patterns. Delivery lead-times and estimates of monthly facility accessibility were obtained through worker surveys. A simulation model was constructed and validated for predictive accuracy against historical stock-outs, then used to evaluate various changes potentially affecting product availability. While almost no stock-outs of AL products were observed during Q4 2009 consistent with primary analysis, up to 30% of surveyed facilities stocked out of some AL product during Q1 2010 despite ample inventory being simultaneously available at the national warehouse. Simulation experiments closely reproduced these results and linked them to the use of average past monthly issues and failure to capture lead-time variability in current inventory control policies. Several inventory policy enhancements currently recommended by USAID | DELIVER were found to have limited impact on product availability. Inventory control policies widely recommended and used for distributing medicines in sub-Saharan Africa directly account for a substantial fraction of stock-outs observed in common situations involving demand seasonality and facility access interruptions. Developing central capabilities in peripheral demand forecasting and inventory control is critical. More rigorous independent peer-reviewed research on pharmaceutical supply chain management in low-income countries is needed.

How Does the Financial Crisis Affect Volatility Behavior and Transmission Among European Stock Markets?

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Faten Ben Slimane

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The spread of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 was rapid, and impacted the functioning and the performance of financial markets. Due to the importance of this phenomenon, this study aims to explain the impact of the crisis on stock market behavior and interdependence through the study of the intraday volatility transmission. This paper investigates the patterns of linkage dynamics among three European stock markets—France, Germany, and the UK—during the global financial crisis, by analyzing the intraday dynamics of linkages among these markets during both calm and turmoil phases. We apply a VAR-EGARCH (Vector Autoregressive Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework to high frequency five-minute intraday returns on selected representative stock indices. We find evidence that interrelationship among European markets increased substantially during the period of crisis, pointing to an amplification of spillovers. In addition, during this period, French and UK markets herded around German market, possibly explained by behavior factors influencing the stock markets on or near dates of extreme events. Germany was identified as the hub of financial and economic activity in Europe during the period of study. These findings have important implications for both policymakers and investors by contributing to better understanding the transmission of financial shocks in Europe.

Multifractals in Western Major STOCK Markets Historical Volatilities in Times of Financial Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Lahmiri, Salim

In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.

Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone

Science.gov (United States)

Anagnostidis, P.; Varsakelis, C.; Emmanouilides, C. J.

2016-04-01

In this paper, the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the weak-form efficiency of twelve Eurozone stock markets is investigated empirically. Efficiency is tested via the Generalized Hurst Exponent method, while dynamic Hurst exponents are estimated by means of the rolling window technique. To account for biases associated with the finite sample size and the leptokurtosis of the financial data, the statistical significance of the Hurst exponent estimates is assessed through a series of Monte-Carlo simulations drawn from the class of α-stable distributions. According to our results, the 2008 crisis has adversely affected stock price efficiency in most of the Eurozone capital markets, leading to the emergence of significant mean-reverting patterns in stock price movements.

Effects of the Financial Crisis on Stock Market of the Czech Republic and Spain

OpenAIRE

Titizov, Toško

2013-01-01

The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibit...

Cross-correlation matrix analysis of Chinese and American bank stocks in subprime crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Shi-Zhao; Li, Xin-Li; Nie, Sen; Zhang, Wen-Qing; Yu, Gao-Feng; Han, Xiao-Pu; Wang, Bing-Hong

2015-05-01

In order to study the universality of the interactions among different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix of the price of the Chinese and American bank stocks. We then find that the stock prices of the emerging market are more correlated than that of the developed market. Considering that the values of the components for the eigenvector may be positive or negative, we analyze the differences between two markets in combination with the endogenous and exogenous events which influence the financial markets. We find that the sparse pattern of components of eigenvectors out of the threshold value has no change in American bank stocks before and after the subprime crisis. However, it changes from sparse to dense for Chinese bank stocks. By using the threshold value to exclude the external factors, we simulate the interactions in financial markets. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11275186, 91024026, and FOM2014OF001) and the University of Shanghai for Science and Technology (USST) of Humanities and Social Sciences, China (Grant Nos. USST13XSZ05 and 11YJA790231).

THE EFFECTS OF STOCK OPTION COMPENSATION ONMANAGERIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR AND FIRM FINANCIALPERFORMANCETHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FROM ADIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE

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Guler Aras

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to figure out whether managerial risk taking behaviourand firm financial performance is effected by stock option compensation.Inliterature stock optioncompensationismentionedasa meansto solve agencyproblems. It is analysed how stock option compensation aligns theshareholders’andmanagers’ interestsand its effects on firm financialperformance. Additionally, it isinvestigatedwhether this effecthas a link to theglobal financial crisis which hasobviously related to the managers’extreme riskseeking behaviourespecially in financial sector. Inthis study, 189 firms fromS P index are analysedutilizingthe panel dataanalysismethod between years1998-2009. Additionally, regression method is used to measureeach year. Thedata set is grouped as financial and non financial sector tobetterpresent theeffects of global financial crisis.According to the results of this study, stockoption compensation is positively related to investment magnitudes which aretaken as indicators of risk taking behavior.On the other hand, it is negativelyrelated to firm financial performance.According to the results of yearlycomparison, in financial sector the invesment magnitudes are bigger than the nonfinancial sector just two years before the financial crisis and net cash flow fromthe investing activities is significantly negative when compared with non financialsector.Therefore,it is aimed to findoutthe relation between the extreme riskseeking behaviorbefore the global financial crisisand the incentive compensationstructures.

Contagion in International Stock Markets during the Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis

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Hsien-Yi Lee

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The sub prime mortgages crises took place in July, 2007 in US which causes the large scare in the global financial markets, and the international stock and foreign market suffer heavy shock. Using twenty international stock indexes, this study examines whether any contagion effect occurred across international markets after the sub-prime financial mortgage crisis in US. Using the heteroscedasticity biases based on correlation coefficients to examine the existence of the contagion effect, this study shows that stock markets of some countries (namely Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand did suffer from the contagion effect.

Analyzing the impact of global financial crisis on the interconnectedness of Asian stock markets using network science

OpenAIRE

Jitendra Aswani

2015-01-01

As importance of Asian Stock Markets (ASM) has increased after the globalization, it is become significant to know how this network of ASM behaves on the onset of financial crises. For this study, the Global Financial Crisis is considered whose origin was in the developed country, US, unlike the Asian crisis of 1997. To evaluate the impact of financial crisis on the ASM, network theory is used as a tool here. Network modeling of stock markets is useful as it can help to avert the spillover of...

Efficient stocks administration in the frame of the present economic crisis

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Mihai Deju

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The economic-financial crisis made its presence felt through more or less shy signals. All companies from the international and national market started to feel the crisis’s negative effects, several declaring bankruptcy, or diminishing temporary their activity. The consequences are multiples: the unemployment’s rate increase, the decreasing of the purchase power and reducing the goods demand from the luxury ones up to the one for consumption etc. Under these circumstances, companies have to avoid the immobilization of financial resources in products stocks that cannot be sold in the near future period, because otherwise would attract the danger of costs increasing, cashing decrease and generation of loses that may endanger the companies capacity of surpassing the present crisis. Therefore, all companies, no matter their size, should find during this period means of efficient stocks administration.

Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009

OpenAIRE

Itzhak Ben-David; Francesco Franzoni; Rabih Moussawi

2012-01-01

Hedge funds significantly reduced their equity holdings during the recent financial crisis. In 2008:Q3----Q4, hedge funds sold about 29% of their aggregate portfolio. Redemptions and margin calls were the primary drivers of selloffs. Consistent with forced deleveraging, the selloffs took place in volatile and liquid stocks. In comparison, redemptions and stock sales for mutual funds were not as severe. We show that hedge fund investors withdraw capital three times as intensely as mutual fund ...

The EU’s Response to the Refugee Crisis: Taking Stock and Setting Policy Priorities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carrera, S.; Blockmans, S.; Gros, D.; Guild, E.

2015-01-01

What have been the most important EU policy and legal responses to the 2015 refugee crisis? Is Europe acting in compliance with its founding principles? This Essay takes stock of the main results and policy outputs from the EU’s interventions in the refugee crisis. It critically highlights the

The Asean Stock Market Integration: The Effect of the 2007 Financial Crisis on the Asean Stock Indices’ Movements

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Adwin Surja Atmadja

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the existence of cointegration relationship and the short run dynamic interaction among the five ASEAN stock market indices in the period of before and during the 2007 financial crisis. The multivariate time series analysis frameworks are employed to the series in both sub-sample periods in order to answer the hypotheses.The study finds two cointegrating vectors in the series before the financial crisis period, however it fails to detect any cointegrating vector in the period of financial crisis. Granger causality tests applied to the series reveal that number of significant causal linkages between two variables increase during the crisis period. Moreover, the accounting innovation analysis shows an increase in the explanatory power of an endogenous variable to another within the system during the crisis period, indicating that the contagious effect of the 2007-US financial crisis has entered into the ASEAN capital market, and significantly influenced the regional indices’ movements.

Structural changes in the minimal spanning tree and the hierarchical network in the Korean stock market around the global financial crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Nobi, Ashadun; Maeng, Seong Eun; Ha, Gyeong Gyun; Lee, Jae Woo

2015-04-01

This paper considers stock prices in the Korean stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis by focusing on three time periods: before, during, and after the crisis. Complex networks are extracted from cross-correlation coefficients between the normalized logarithmic return of the stock price time series of firms. The minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and the hierarchical network (HN) are generated from cross-correlation coefficients. Before and after the crisis, securities firms are located at the center of the MST. During the crisis, however, the center of the MST changes to a firm in heavy industry and construction. During the crisis, the MST shrinks in comparison to that before and that after the crisis. This topological change in the MST during the crisis reflects a distinct effect of the global financial crisis. The cophenetic correlation coefficient increases during the crisis, indicating an increase in the hierarchical structure during in this period. When crisis hits the market, firms behave synchronously, and their correlations are higher than those during a normal period.

ASEAN-5+3 AND US STOCK MARKETS INTERDEPENDENCE BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

OpenAIRE

Royfaizal, R. C; Lee, C; Mohamed, Azali

2007-01-01

The issues of international stock markets linkages had been investigated over the time. Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, many economists are concerned about the relationship between Asian stock markets and others in the world. This paper is conducted to examine the linkages between ASEAN-5+3 namely Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Japan and Korea and US stock markets. The data consists of weekly stock indices data. The total samples are se...

Was the 2007 crisis really a global banking crisis?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer; De Haan, Jakob

We argue that the 2007 crisis was not a global banking crisis. Stock prices of banks in emerging countries faced a temporary shock but quickly recovered, while stock prices of banks located in industrial countries remained much lower than before the 2007 crisis. Our results also suggest that stock

SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF THE SUB-PRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS TO THE ASIAN STOCK MARKETS

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Esta Lestari

2014-10-01

Full Text Available AbstractThis paper aims to analyze the effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on several Asian stock markets. An Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH model is employed to provide an empirical evidence of the direct spillover. The indirect effect is measured through the spillover effects from the increased volatility in the U.S. stock markets to the Asian stock markets. The results showed that the market integration occurs within Asian stock markets. Meanwhile the asymmetric effects are evident for all the Asian countries stock markets, indicating that financial markets in Asia are suffered more from negative news (shocks lead to more volatilities compared to positive news. Keywords: Stock market, sub-prime mortgage crisis, volatility, spillover effectJEL classification numbers: C22, F36, G15AbstrakPaper ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh krisis sub-prime mortgage pada beberapa pasar saham Asia. Model Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH digunakan untuk mendapatkan bukti empiris dari kenaikan volatilitas dalam pasar saham Amerika pada pasar-pasar saham Asia. Hasil analisis memperlihatkan bahwa integrasi pasar terjadi di dalam pasar saham Asia. Sementara itu, pengaruh asimetris terbukti terjadi di pasar-pasar saham Asia, mengindikasikan bahwa pasar-pasar keuangan di Asia menderita lebih parah sebagai akibat dari kejutan negatif dibandingkan dengan dampak dari kejutan positif.Kata kunci: Pasar saham, krisis sub-prime mortgage, volatilitas, pengaruh spillover JEL classification numbers: C22, F36, G15

Sensitivity, Persistence and Asymmetric Effects in International Stock Market Volatility during the Global Financial Crisis || Efectos de sensibilidad, persistencia y asimetría en la volatilidad de los mercados bursátiles internacionales
en el entorno de la crisis financiera global

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Gabriel, Vítor

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Financial market volatility is an important element when setting up port- folio management strategies, option pricing and market regulation. The Subprime crisis affected all markets around the world. Daily data of twelve stock indexes for the period of October 1999 to June 2011 are studied using basic GARCH type models. The data were then divided into three different sub-periods to allow the behaviour of stock market in different sub-periods to be investigated. The following sub-periods are identified: Dot-Com crisis, Quiet and Subprime crisis. This paper revealed that the Subprime crisis turned out to have bigger impact on stock market volatility, namely at sensitivity, persistence and asymmetric effects. || La volatilidad de los mercados financieros es un importante elemento para la estrategia de carteras de inversión y para la regulación de los mercados. La crisis subprime afectó a los mercados bursátiles mundiales. Para realizar este estudio, fueron tomados datos diarios relativos a doce mercados bursátiles, desde el 4 de octubre de 1999 hasta el 30 de junio de 2011. El período de la muestra considerado ha sido subdividido en tres subperiodos distintos: crisis de las empresas tecnológicas, tranquilo y crisis financiera global. Para estudiar la volatilidad de los mercados bursátiles, se ha recurrido a modelos de tipo GARCH. Los resultados demuestran la influencia de la crisis financiera global en el comportamiento de la volatilidad del mercado bursátil, sobre todo en cuanto a la sensibilidad, la persistencia y la asimetría.

The Determinants of Investor Preferences during the Financial Crisis Periods: A Study on 2001 Crisis

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Gülfen TUNA

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The study is targeting to examine the effects of 2001 financial crisis on the shares included in the lowest-risk portfolios of Istanbul Stock Exchange. To this end; monthly returns data of all shares traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange between 2000:11-2002:09 term, are evaluated. While portfolio selection is carried out via Markowitz Model, the effects of 2001 financal crisis are examined whereby ratio analysis. The findings display that the firms examined have benefited from the positive impact of exporting, furthermore, the amounts of short term debts are increased. Besides, both stock retention and receivable collection periods of the mentioned firms are decreased.

Wavelet Analysis of Central European Stock Market Behaviour During the Crisis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš

2009-01-01

Roč. 2009, č. 23 (2009), s. 1-14 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP402/08/P207; GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : wavelet analysis * multiresolution analysis * Central European stock markets * financial crisis Subject RIV: AH - Economics

European economic policies, stock-flow relations and the great double crisis

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Vittorio Valli

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The 2007-2015 crisis has been the most devastating economic depression in the last seven decades. It has struck in different ways and with different amplitude the US and most European countries. In most countries it has been a double crisis (financial and real, but in Eurozone's financially vulnerable countries it has also badly worsened public finance indicators. There was therefore in those countries, a complex perverse feedback between public finance weakness, the harsh application of austerity policy and a further increase in the depth and duration of real and financial crisis. The paper focus on the importance of stock-flow relations in worsening and prolonging economic depressions triggered by structural bubbles or other chronic imbalances. It also gives a critical assessment of some aspects of EU economic policies, outlining some elements for a possible alternative economic strategy.

Contagion Effects of US Subprime Crisis on ASEAN-5 Stock Markets: Evidence from MGARCH-DCC Application

OpenAIRE

Chunxiu, Ma; Masih, Mansur

2014-01-01

We attempted to investigate the contagion effects of the US subprime crisis on ASEAN-5 stock markets [including Malaysia (conventional and Islamic), Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines] by applying MGARCH-DCC through the period of January 1, 2004 to July 5, 2012 on daily stock indices returns, and also Continuous Wavelet Transform coherence method through the period of January 1, 2006 to December 31, 20091 on daily stock indices returns. This is motivated by the fact that the 2007-200...

Who Moves the Malaysian Stock Market— the U.S. or Japan?: Empirical Evidence from the Pre-, During, and Post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis

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Rosylin Mohd. Yusof

2006-09-01

Full Text Available This paper examines long run co-movements between Malaysian stock market and the two largest stock markets in the world: the U.S. and Japan. By employing time-series analysis, i.e., cointegration, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions, the paper seeks to investigate which market actually leads the Malaysian stock market before, during, and after the 1997 Asian financial crisis periods. The results indicate that there is a co-movement of these markets only in the post crisis period. The Japanese stock market is found to significantly move the Malaysian stock market compared to U.S. stock market for the post-crisis period. At the same time, there seems to be a growing proportion of bilateral trade between Malaysia and Japan during the mentioned period. This finding seems to be consistent with the view that the stronger the bilateral trade ties between two countries, the higher the degree of co-movements (Masih and Masih 1999; Bracker et al. 1999; Pretorius 2002; Ibrahim 2003; Kearney and Lucey 2004. Our finding implies that the opportunities of gaining abnormal profits through investment diversification during the post-crisis period in the Malaysian and Japanese stock markets are diminishing as the markets move towards a greater integration. This further implies that any development in the Japanese economy has to be taken into consideration by the Malaysian government in designing policies pertaining to Malaysian stock market.

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Earnings Management: Empirical Evidence from the Top 5,000 Non-Listed Stock Italian Companies

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Francesco Paolone

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Account manipulation has been the subject of accounting discussions not only in the U.S. but across the world, especially during times of financial crises. This paper investigates the impact of the recent financial crisis on account manipulation probability by adopting the Beneish Model (1999, 2013 of eight performance ratios. The analysis has been conducted using the Top 5,000 Non-Listed Stock Italian Companies (Società Per Azioni ranked by revenues during the time period 2005-2012. We use the AIDA Bureau Van Dijk database. We test the existence of earnings management (EM within the Top Non-Listed Stock Italian Companies through a comparison between the pre-crisis period (2005-2008 and the crisis period (2009-2012. Our findings show that the number of firms with a higher likelihood of earnings manipulation decreases by 4.53% from the pre-crisis to crisis period. As a consequence, we argue that EM increases when the crisis is weak while EM decreases during the crisis period.

Contagion among Central and Eastern European stock markets during the financial crisis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš

2013-01-01

Roč. 63, č. 5 (2013), s. 443-453 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : wavelets * financial crisis * Central and Eastern European stock markets * comovement * contagion Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/barunik-0396416.pdf

Stock Market Linkages: Evidence From The US, China And India During The Subprime Crisis

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Singh Amanjot

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Subprime crisis spillovered the returns and volatility from the US stock market to the other integrated economies. The present study attempts to analyze the stock market linkages between the US, India and China, especially during the US subprime Crisis. The technique of Tri-Variate Vector Autoregression and the Spillover Index has been employed so as to analyze the relations during the time period 2007 to 2009. To estimate the time varying risk parameters, the technique of Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic [TGARCH (1,1] model has been used. A uni-directional causality has been observed from the US market to the Indian and Chinese market, whereas another unidirectional causality has also been spotted running from the Chinese market to the Indian market in the context of stock market returns during the crisis period. A unidirectional volatility spillover from the US to the Indian market and from the Indian to the Chinese market has been found to be significant. As per the volatility Spillover Index, the cross market impact on the volatility reduces over a time period 2007-2009, due to the increased impact of the past volatility and the presence of 'leverage effect'. The falling returns added to the volatility in the respective markets. The efficient tests of causality inspired by Hill (2007 reported an indirect impact of the US market volatility on the Chinese market via Indian. The portfolio managers should discount this information well ahead of time to maintain the portfolio values by taking positions in futures and options market.

Performance of Socially Responsible Stocks Portfolios – The Impact of Global Financial Crisis

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Vanita Tripathi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available For the effective and better implementation of CSR law, development of SRI market in the investment world is essential. Unless the investors turn socially responsible, CSR principles cannot be enforced in practice. This paper examines whether the companies that are socially responsible are performing better than general companies in terms of risk, return and various risk-adjusted measures during pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods. We find that despite having higher risk, socially responsible stocks portfolios generated significantly higher returns and hence outperformed other portfolios on the basis of all risk-adjusted measures, as well as net selectivity returns during crisis period. The results uphold even with the use of Fama-French three factor model for estimating excess returns. Besides augmenting existing literature, our results clearly corroborate the fact that investors can derive benefits by investing in socially responsible companies (especially in crisis period. The study supports the view that socially responsible products can be used as a safe investment vehicle by investors during adversity. Therefore, regulators, policy makers and mutual funds should construct and make available various socially responsible investment products to initiate the movement of socially responsible investing in India.

Tail Behavior of the Central European Stock Markets during the Financial Crisis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2010-01-01

Roč. 2010, č. 4 (2010), s. 1-17 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP402/08/P207; GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : financial crisis * tail behavior * stock markets * stable probability distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/barunik-0341829.pdf

Volatility Transmission Between Dow Jones Stock Index And Emerging Islamic Stock Index: Case Of Subprime Financial Crises

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Amir Saadaoui

2015-02-01

Full Text Available In the course of the recent global crisis, the stock shocks are distributed and transmitted from their homes in the developed stock market to emerging stock markets. By supporting the development of emerging stock markets, this study aims to see the transmission of volatility between the Dow Jones stock index and the Dow Jones emerging Islamic stock indiex. In this study we have divided the period into three, periods, before, during and after this crisis to demonstrate the resilience of the Islamic market index in response to the global financial crisis. Another aim of this study is to provide a new guide line for investors in emerging stock market before making investment decisions. The data are daily, going from 02/01/2005 until 31/12/2012. To measure the transmission we used bivariate BEKK-GARCH and DCC-GARCH model. The result shows that there is a transmission mainly during the crisis period which means that the crisis affects all the financial assets whether Islamic or not. The same result also shows the preference to invest in both Islamic and classical stock indexes since they are less risky.

Global financial crisis and weak-form efficiency of Islamic sectoral stock markets: An MF-DFA analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mensi, Walid; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Yoon, Seong-Min

2017-04-01

This paper estimates the weak-form efficiency of Islamic stock markets using 10 sectoral stock indices (basic materials, consumer services, consumer goods, energy, financials, health care, industrials, technology, telecommunication, and utilities). The results based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) approach show time-varying efficiency for the sectoral stock markets. Moreover, we find that they tend to show high efficiency in the long term but moderate efficiency in the short term, and that these markets become less efficient after the onset of the global financial crisis. These results have several significant implications in terms of asset allocation for investors dealing with Islamic markets.

Rapid diagnostic test supply chain and consumption study in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique: estimating stock shortages and identifying drivers of stock-outs.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasselback, Leah; Crawford, Jessica; Chaluco, Timoteo; Rajagopal, Sharanya; Prosser, Wendy; Watson, Noel

2014-08-02

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are particularly useful in low-resource settings where follow-through on traditional laboratory diagnosis is challenging or lacking. The availability of these tests depends on supply chain processes within the distribution system. In Mozambique, stock-outs of malaria RDTs are fairly common at health facilities. A longitudinal cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate drivers of stock shortages in the Cabo Delgado province. Data were collected from purposively sampled health facilities, using monthly cross-sectional surveys between October 2011 and May 2012. Estimates of lost consumption (consumption not met due to stock-outs) served as the primary quantitative indicator of stock shortages. This is a better measure of the magnitude of stock-outs than binary indicators that only measure frequency of stock-outs at a given facility. Using a case study based methodology, distribution system characteristics were qualitatively analysed to examine causes of stock-outs at the provincial, district and health centre levels. 15 health facilities were surveyed over 120 time points. Stock-out patterns varied by data source; average monthly proportions of 59%, 17% and 17% of health centres reported a stock-out on stock cards, laboratory and pharmacy forms, respectively. Estimates of lost consumption percentage were significantly high; ranging from 0% to 149%; with a weighted average of 78%. Each ten-unit increase in monthly-observed consumption was associated with a nine-unit increase in lost consumption percentage indicating that higher rates of stock-outs occurred at higher levels of observed consumption. Causes of stock-outs included inaccurate tracking of lost consumption, insufficient sophistication in inventory management and replenishment, and poor process compliance by facility workers, all arguably stemming from inadequate attention to the design and implementation of the distribution system. Substantially high levels of RDT

Case study to identify the causes of stock-out of a textile retailer

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Fernando Henrique Aguiar

2014-05-01

Full Text Available One of the main problems faced by large retailers is related to the lack of supply in display racks, the so called stock-out points. Studies have been made since the sixties, which show that progress related to this subject is limited. Stock-out levels are around 8.3%. Furthermore, literature on the subject is insufficient, as very few studies have been dedicated to investigating the causes of stock-out. The present study aims to collect stock-out data from a large textile retailer for a product category and elaborate a tree of stock-out causes. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used in this research, through software and interviews, in order to generate and refine our results. From this approach, it was possible to identify that 38% of the causes of stock-outs are within the store, that is, the product is not available in the sales area, but in the back end.

Tail Behavior of the Central European Stock Markets during the Financial Crisis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2010-01-01

Roč. 4, č. 3 (2010), s. 282-294 ISSN 1802-4696 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GP402/08/P207 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 0021620840 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Financial crisis * tail behavior * stock markets * stable probability distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/barunik-0349713.pdf

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

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M.N. Arshad

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007 and second, after (2008-2012 the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ. Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

Financial Contagion in the BRICS Stock Markets: An empirical analysis of the Lehman Brothers Collapse and European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DIRCEU PEREIRA

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This research analyzes and extends the study of contagion for BRICS emerging stock markets in the context of the last two international financial crises: the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. We investigate changes in the relationship and the co-movements between BRICS markets in response to international shocks that are originated in advanced markets like USA and Europe. Employing data of daily stock market indices of BRICS countries, this research tests for contagion, examining the interactions and characteristics of price movements of BRICS stock markets by applying cointegration, causality and VECM/Gonzalo-Granger statistic and variance decomposition methodology on stock returns as a measure of perceived country risk. The results exhibit that both long-run and short-run relationships patterns exist between BRICS stock markets and have drastically changed during turbulent periods compared with tranquil period, pointing towards the occurrence of contagion phenomenon among BRICS markets during the last two crises. These findings also indicate that changes in the USA and the Euro Zone indices affect BRICS stock markets in the short-run, acting as a leading indicator for investing in BRICS markets. Also imply an increasing degree of global market integration, bringing major implications for portfolio diversification and policy makers.

Currency Crisis and Contagion; Evidence From Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Indices of the Philippines and Thailand

OpenAIRE

Jun Nagayasu

2000-01-01

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study confirms that there is evidence that developments in some sectoral indices—including those of banking and financial sectors—seem to have caused upward pressure on exchange rates. A correlation between some of these variables is also found to be strong across countries in the crisis...

Are oil and gas stocks from the Australian market riskier than coal and uranium stocks? Dependence risk analysis and portfolio optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arreola Hernandez, Jose

2014-01-01

This article models the dependence risk and resource allocation characteristics of two 20-stock coal–uranium and oil–gas sector portfolios from the Australian market in the context of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The modeling framework implemented consists of pair vine copulas and, linear and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods with respect to five risk measures. The paper's objectives are to find out if the oil and gas stocks are riskier than the coal and uranium stocks, to identify the optimization method and risk measure that produce the best risk-return trade-off, to recognize the stocks in which the optimal weight allocations converge on average, and to acknowledge the vine copula model that best accounts for the overall dependence of the energy portfolios. The research findings indicate that the oil stocks have higher dependence risk than the coal, uranium and gas stocks in financial crisis periods. The higher risk of the oil stocks is confirmed by the larger concentration of symmetric and asymmetric dependence they have in the negative tail. The canonical vine (c-vine) copula model is observed to better capture the overall dependence of the energy portfolios. The combination of a pair c-vine copula and nonlinear portfolio optimization produces the highest return relative to risk. The optimal weight allocations converge on average in some stocks. - Highlights: • Vine copula dependence modeling of coal, uranium, oil and gas stocks • Oil stocks are riskier than coal, uranium and gas stocks in financial crisis periods. • The c-vine model better captures the overall dependence of the energy portfolios. • Vine copulas and nonlinear optimization combined produce the best results. • The optimal weight allocations converge on average in some stocks

Cascading effect of contagion in Indian stock market: Evidence from reachable stocks

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Rajan Sruthi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The financial turbulence in a country percolates to another along the trajectories of reachable stocks owned by foreign investors. To indemnify the losses originating from the crisis country, foreign investors dispose of shares in other markets triggering a contagion in an unrelated market. This paper provides empirical evidence for the stock market crisis that spreads globally through investors owning international portfolios, with special reference to the global financial crisis of 2008–09. Using two-step Limited Information Maximum Likelihood estimation and Murphy-Topel variance estimate, the results show that reachability plays a crucial role in the transposal of distress from one country to another, explaining investor-induced contagion in the Indian stock market.

Retail Out-of-stocks in the Context of Centralized and Direct Delivery

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Nikola Milićević

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The delivery of the right product, at the right time to the retail store, only seems to be an easy process. The smallest problem can cause the out-of-stock (OOS situation, which may prevent customers to buy products they were looking for. Consequently, it affects retailers and their suppliers through potential operational inefficiencies, sale losses and eventually the losses of their loyal customers. Starting from these problems, by using the data of a large Serbian retailer, this paper analyses out-of-stocks in the context of two alternative delivery systems, centralized and direct. For calculating OOS rates the perpetual inventory aggregation metrics was used, while the occurrence of out-of-stocks was modelled by the application of probit regression analysis. The results have shown that delivery system has a significant impact on the probability of a stock-out, indicating potential problems in the centralized system. In addition, the analysis included certain product and store characteristics that also significantly affect the average probability of stock-outs.

Reducing stock-outs of essential tuberculosis medicines: a system dynamics modelling approach to supply chain management.

Science.gov (United States)

Bam, L; McLaren, Z M; Coetzee, E; von Leipzig, K H

2017-10-01

The under-performance of supply chains presents a significant hindrance to disease control in developing countries. Stock-outs of essential medicines lead to treatment interruption which can force changes in patient drug regimens, drive drug resistance and increase mortality. This study is one of few to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain policies in reducing shortages and costs. This study develops a systems dynamics simulation model of the downstream supply chain for amikacin, a second-line tuberculosis drug using 10 years of South African data. We evaluate current supply chain performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness and agility, following the widely-used Supply Chain Operation Reference framework. We simulate 141 scenarios that represent different combinations of supplier characteristics, inventory management strategies and demand forecasting methods to identify the Pareto optimal set of management policies that jointly minimize the number of shortages and total cost. Despite long supplier lead times and unpredictable demand, the amikacin supply chain is 98% reliable and agile enough to accommodate a 20% increase in demand without a shortage. However, this is accomplished by overstocking amikacin by 167%, which incurs high holding costs. The responsiveness of suppliers is low: only 57% of orders are delivered to the central provincial drug depot within one month. We identify three Pareto optimal safety stock management policies. Short supplier lead time can produce Pareto optimal outcomes even in the absence of other optimal policies. This study produces concrete, actionable guidelines to cost-effectively reduce stock-outs by implementing optimal supply chain policies. Preferentially selecting drug suppliers with short lead times accommodates unexpected changes in demand. Optimal supply chain management should be an essential component of national policy to reduce the mortality rate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

The crisis in the uranium mining industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballery, J.L.

1993-01-01

For over ten years, the uranium mining industry within the OECD and elsewhere has been undergoing its worst ever crisis. At a time when it seemed assured of a promising future, the economic recession of the 1980s took the wind out of its sails. This paper describes the factors causing the crisis, strikes the balance of production, demand and stocks and gives forecasts for the next years. 3 figs., 9 refs

The Moderating Influence of Supermarket Satisfaction on Out-of-Stock Store Switching Behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Torben; Beckmann, Suzanne C.; Solgaard, Hans Stubbe

. Based on a survey of 631 grocery consumers, this study investigates the moderating influence of preferred supermarket satisfaction on relations between quality consciousness, price consciousness, pre-planning propensity and out-of-stock store switching, and also examines the direct influence...... of these variables on out-of-stock store switching. The results indicate that whereas preferred supermarket satisfaction negatively moderates the relation between quality consciousness and out-of-stock store switching, preferred supermarket satisfaction positively moderates the relation between price consciousness...

CONTAGION EFFECTS OF US FINANCIAL CRISIS ON INDONESIA

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Anika Sedyaning Wikanti

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This research analyzes the contagion effects of the US financial markets on Indonesian fi-nancial markets during the 2008 global financial crisis. It specifically investigates whether the slump in the US stock prices directly produced a slump in Indonesian stock prices, or indirectly through the slump in regional stock prices. It also examines whether the slump spilled over into rupiah exchange rate. Using Vector Autoregression and Vector Error Correction Model, the paper finds direct contagion effect of the US financial crisis into Indonesian stock markets. It also finds both direct and indirect contagion effect of the US financial crisis into foreign exchange market.Keywords: Contagion, stock price, exchange rate, financial crisisJEL classification numbers: G12, G15

The Australian stock market development: Prospects and challenges

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Sheilla Nyasha

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these reforms. As a result of the reforms, the Australian stock market has developed in terms of the number of listed companies, the market capitalisation, the total value of stocks traded, and the turnover ratio. Although the stock market in Australia has developed remarkably over the years, and was spared by the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, it still faces some challenges. These include the increased economic uncertainty overseas, the downtrend in global financial markets, and the restrained consumer confidence in Australia.

Portfolio volatility of Islamic and conventional stock: The case of Indonesia stock market

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Aldrin Herwany

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Conventional finance suggests that the higher the risk of an investment, the higher the return it should give. Nevertheless, whether Islamic stocks that offer alternative investment in the stock market suggest different risk-return relationship still needs to be investigated. This empirical study is aimed at assessing risk-return behavior of Islamic stocks. This study employs cross sectional data of portfolio developed using beta-rank and market capitalization, in which daily data will better reflect the real volatility. This study also measures volatility of both conventional and Islamic stocks using Value-at-Risk (VaR. To check whether Islamic stocks are immune from any impact of financial crisis, this study utilizes three periods of observation, i.e., before, during and after the 2008 crisis. This study assesses risk and return using Multi-index model, in which variables tested are the respective fundamental factors. Results of this study will provide more accurate approach in Islamic stocks analysis.

Being on the field when the game is still under way. The financial press and stock markets in times of crisis.

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Roberto Casarin

Full Text Available This paper looks at the relationship between negative news and stock markets in times of global crisis, such as the 2008/2009 period. We analysed one year of front page banner headlines of three financial newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Il Sole24ore to examine the influence of bad news both on stock market volatility and dynamic correlation. Our results show that the press and markets influenced each other in generating market volatility and in particular, that the Wall Street Journal had a crucial effect both on the volatility and correlation between the US and foreign markets. We also found significant differences between newspapers in their interpretation of the crisis, with the Financial Times being significantly pessimistic even in phases of low market volatility. Our results confirm the reflexive nature of stock markets. When the situation is uncertain and unpredictable, market behaviour may even reflect qualitative, big picture, and subjective information such as streamers in a newspaper, whose economic and informative value is questionable.

Being on the Field When the Game Is Still Under Way. The Financial Press and Stock Markets in Times of Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Casarin, Roberto; Squazzoni, Flaminio

2013-01-01

This paper looks at the relationship between negative news and stock markets in times of global crisis, such as the 2008/2009 period. We analysed one year of front page banner headlines of three financial newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Il Sole24ore to examine the influence of bad news both on stock market volatility and dynamic correlation. Our results show that the press and markets influenced each other in generating market volatility and in particular, that the Wall Street Journal had a crucial effect both on the volatility and correlation between the US and foreign markets. We also found significant differences between newspapers in their interpretation of the crisis, with the Financial Times being significantly pessimistic even in phases of low market volatility. Our results confirm the reflexive nature of stock markets. When the situation is uncertain and unpredictable, market behaviour may even reflect qualitative, big picture, and subjective information such as streamers in a newspaper, whose economic and informative value is questionable. PMID:23861791

Contagion Effect of Natural Disaster and Financial Crisis Events on International Stock Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuo-Jung Lee

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In the contemporary world bustling with global trade, a natural disaster or financial crisis in one country (or region can cause substantial economic losses and turbulence in the local financial markets, which may then affect the economic activities and financial assets of other countries (or regions. This study focuses on the major natural disasters that occurred worldwide during the last decade, especially those in the Asia–Pacific region, and the economic effects of global financial crises. The heteroscedasticity bias correlation coefficient method and exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model are employed to compare the contagion effect in the stock markets of the initiating country on other countries, determining whether economically devastating factors have contagion or spillover effects on other countries. The empirical results indicate that among all the natural disasters considered, the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake in China caused the most substantial contagion effect in the stock markets of neighboring Asian countries. Regarding financial crises, the financial tsunami triggered by the secondary mortgage fallout in the United States generated the strongest contagion effect on the stock markets of developing and emerging economies. When building a diversified global investment portfolio, investors should be aware of the risks of major natural disasters and financial incidents.

Effects of financial crisis on the industry sector of Chinese stock market — from a perspective of complex network

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chunxia; Chen, Yanhua; Hao, Weiwei; Shen, Ying; Tang, Minxuan; Niu, Lei

2014-05-01

In this paper, we use mutual information to measure the statistical interdependence between 23 industry sectors of Shanghai stock market and construct corresponding correlation network to analyze the shock of 2008 financial crisis on industry sectors. The obtained meaningful facts are as follows. First, such crisis has only a limited impact on leading industries such as Manufacturing, Commercial trade and Machinery & Equipment, which still play an important role in Chinese economy. Second, the crisis badly attacks China's export industries like Electronics, Wood & Furniture and Textile & Clothing. The damage further hurts other industries, and then export industries' influence becomes larger. Third, the crisis adversely impacts the import industries like Petrochemical, Metal & Nonmetal and Pharmaceutical Biotechnology. While due to the stimulation of macroeconomic policies, the influence of crisis on import industries is limited. Similarly, due to relatively strict capital control and the macroeconomic policies stimulating the domestic demand, those industries like Construction, Real Estate and Financial Services are slightly wounded. All these findings suggest that Chinese government should transform from the external demand to the domestic consumption to sustain economic growth.

Nivolumab, a new immunomodulatory drug, a new adverse effect; adrenal crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Funda Karbek Akarca

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Owing to the advancements in medicine, new information is obtained regarding cancer, new antineoplastic agents are developed. Frequent use of these new pharmacological agents emergency physicians to be vigilant about their side effects. We present a case of adrenal crisis in a patient with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC, caused by an immunomodulatory drug; nivolumab. While adverse events are related to other immunomodulatory drugs have been reported in literature, our case is the first nivolumab-related adrenal failure to be reported. A patient with lung cancer presented to the emergency room(ER with nausea and vomiting. Hyponatremia, hyperkalemia, persistent hypoglycemia led to the diagnosis of adrenal crisis. Having direct effect on the immune system, these drugs were claimed to be highly reliable. However, there is no reliable data on the side effect profile of these agents. It should be kept in mind that life-threatening auto-immune reactions may occur. Keywords: Nivolumab, Immunomodulation, CTLA 4 antigen, Adrenal crisis

41 CFR 101-26.303 - Out-of-stock items.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Out-of-stock items. 101-26.303 Section 101-26.303 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management Regulations System FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 26-PROCUREMENT SOURCES AND...

Ways out of the environmental crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irrgang, B.; Klawitter, J.; Seif, K.P.

1987-01-01

The book documents the interdisciplinary papers held at a meeting on 'Ways out of the environmental crisis' in November 1985. Guided by the principle of concrete responsibilities emphasis was on the following subjects: Time presses - definition and consequences of the awareness of an imminent environmental catastrophe; air pollution and water pollution recapitulated; economic strategies for the benefit of pollution abatement; ethical and theological aspects; acceptable environmental policies - prospects and perspectives. The papers reflect the relation between the environment, the present generation, posterity, gross national producns and energy consumption, and present a number of scientifically founded alternative strategies. (HSCH) With 16 figs., 1 tab [de

Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

2011-04-01

This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

A causality between fund performance and stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ho-Yong; Kwon, Okyu; Oh, Gabjin

2016-02-01

We investigate whether the characteristic fund performance indicators (FPI), such as the fund return, the Net asset value (NAV) and the cash flow, are correlated with the asset price movement using information flows estimated by the Granger causality test. First, we find that the information flow of FPI is most sensitive to extreme events of the Korean stock market, which include negative events such as the sub-prime crisis and the impact of QE (quantitative easing) by the US subprime and Europe financial crisis as well as the positive events of the golden period of Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), except for the fund cash flow. Second, both the fund return and the NAV exhibit significant correlations with the KOSPI, whereas the cash flow is not correlated with the stock market. This result suggests that the information resulting from the ability of the fund manager should influence stock market. Finally, during market crisis period, information flows between FPI and the Korean stock market are significantly positively correlated with the market volatility.

Hidden cross-correlation patterns in stock markets based on permutation cross-sample entropy and PCA

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Aijing; Shang, Pengjian; Zhong, Bo

2014-12-01

In this article, we investigate the hidden cross-correlation structures in Chinese stock markets and US stock markets by performing PCSE combined with PCA approach. It is suggested that PCSE can provide a more faithful and more interpretable description of the dynamic mechanism between time series than cross-correlation matrix. We show that this new technique can be adapted to observe stock markets especially during financial crisis. In order to identify and compare the interactions and structures of stock markets during financial crisis, as well as in normal periods, all the samples are divided into four sub-periods. The results imply that the cross-correlations between Chinese group are stronger than the US group in the most sub-periods. In particular, it is likely that the US stock markets are more integrated with each other during global financial crisis than during Asian financial crisis. However, our results illustrate that Chinese stock markets are not immune from the global financial crisis, although less integrated with other markets if they are compared with US stock markets.

Consumer responses to shelf-out-of-stocks of perishable products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woensel, van T.; Donselaar, van K.H.; Broekmeulen, R.A.C.M.; Fransoo, J.C.

2007-01-01

This paper aims to identify customer behavior with regard to out-of-stocks (OOS) of perishable products (focused on bakery bread) and the resulting inventory performance for these perishable products. Design/methodology/approach – Insights on how consumers behave when their preferred bread product

Drug dispensing errors in a ward stock system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Stig Ejdrup

2010-01-01

. Multivariable analysis showed that surgical and psychiatric settings were more susceptible to involvement in dispensing errors and that polypharmacy was a risk factor. In this ward stock system, dispensing errors are relatively common, they depend on speciality and are associated with polypharmacy......The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of drug dispensing errors in a traditional ward stock system operated by nurses and to investigate the effect of potential contributing factors. This was a descriptive study conducted in a teaching hospital from January 2005 to June 2007. In five....... These results indicate that strategies to reduce dispensing errors should address polypharmacy and focus on high-risk units. This should, however, be substantiated by a future trial....

How front-line healthcare workers respond to stock-outs of essential medicines in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodes, R; Price, I; Bungane, N; Toska, E; Cluver, L

2017-08-25

Shortages of essential medicines are a daily occurrence in many of South Africa (SA)'s public health facilities. This study focuses on the responses of healthcare workers to stock-outs, investigating how actors at the 'front line' of public health delivery understand, experience and respond to shortages of essential medicines and equipment in their facilities. Findings are based on focus groups, observations and interviews with healthcare workers and patients at healthcare facilities in the Eastern Cape Province of SA, conducted as part of the Mzantsi Wakho study. The research revealed a discrepancy between 'informal' definitions of stock-outs and their reporting through formal stock-out management channels. Front-line healthcare workers had designed their own systems for classifying the severity of stock-outs, based on the product in question, and on their potential to access stocks from other facilities. Beyond formal systems of procurement and supply, healthcare workers had established vast networks of alternative communication and action, often using personal resources to procure medical supplies. Stock-outs were only reported when informal methods of stock-sharing did not secure top-up supplies. These findings have implications for understanding the frequency and severity of stock-outs, and for taking action to prevent and manage stock-outs effectively.

Cluster fusion-fission dynamics in the Singapore stock exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Teh, Boon Kin; Cheong, Siew Ann

2015-10-01

In this paper, we investigate how the cross-correlations between stocks in the Singapore stock exchange (SGX) evolve over 2008 and 2009 within overlapping one-month time windows. In particular, we examine how these cross-correlations change before, during, and after the Sep-Oct 2008 Lehman Brothers Crisis. To do this, we extend the complete-linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm, to obtain robust clusters of stocks with stronger intracluster correlations, and weaker intercluster correlations. After we identify the robust clusters in all time windows, we visualize how these change in the form of a fusion-fission diagram. Such a diagram depicts graphically how the cluster sizes evolve, the exchange of stocks between clusters, as well as how strongly the clusters mix. From the fusion-fission diagram, we see a giant cluster growing and disintegrating in the SGX, up till the Lehman Brothers Crisis in September 2008 and the market crashes of October 2008. After the Lehman Brothers Crisis, clusters in the SGX remain small for few months before giant clusters emerge once again. In the aftermath of the crisis, we also find strong mixing of component stocks between clusters. As a result, the correlation between initially strongly-correlated pairs of stocks decay exponentially with average life time of about a month. These observations impact strongly how portfolios and trading strategies should be formulated.

Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, Taro

2018-02-01

In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.

A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric S. Fung

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Recently, there has been a considerable interest in the Bayesian approach for explaining investors' behaviorial biases by incorporating conservative and representative heuristics when making financial decisions, (see, for example, Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998. To establish a quantitative link between some important market anomalies and investors' behaviorial biases, Lam, Liu, and Wong (2010 introduced a pseudo-Bayesian approach for developing properties of stock returns, where weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks and stock prices. In response to the recent global financial crisis, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis. Properties of stock returns during the financial crisis and recovery from the crisis are established. The proposed model can be applied to investigate some important market anomalies including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during financial crisis. We also explain in some detail the linkage between these market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases during financial crisis.

[Effect of the economic crisis on consumption of psychotropic drugs in Asturias (Spain)].

Science.gov (United States)

Nicieza-García, María Luisa; Alonso-Lorenzo, Julio C; Suárez-Gil, Patricio; Rilla-Villar, Natalia

To assess whether the economic crisis of 2008 has changed the consumption of anxiolytics, hypnotics-sedatives and antidepressants in Asturias (Spain). We conducted a descriptive study of drug use from 2003 -2013. The defined daily doses of 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) were calculated for anxiolytics, hypnotics-sedatives and antidepressants. Linear regression coefficients (b) of the DHD were obtained for the pre-crisis period (2003-2008) and the crisis period (2009-2013). The consumption of anxiolytics increased by 40.25%, that of hypnotics by 88.11% and that of antidepressants by 80.93%. For anxiolytics: b-(2003-2008)=4.38 DDI/year and b-(2009-2013)=1.08 DDI/year. For hypnotics-sedatives: b-(2003-2008)=2.30 DDI/year and b-(2009-2013)=0.40 DDI/year. For antidepressants: b-(2003-2008)=5.79 DDI/year and b-(2009-2013)=2.83 DDI/year. The rise in consumption of the three subgroups during the crisis period was lower than that of the pre-crisis period. This study does not confirm the influence of the economic crisis on the rise in consumption of these drugs. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Capital Asset Pricing Model Testing at Warsaw Stock Exchange: Are Family Businesses the Remedy for Economic Recessions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacek Lipiec

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In this article, we test the capital asset pricing model (CAPM on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE by measuring the performance of two portfolios composed of construction firms: family-controlled and nonfamily controlled. These portfolios were selected from the WIG-Construction (WIG—Warszawski Indeks Giełdowy—Warsaw Stock Exchange Index. The performance of both portfolios was measured in the period from 2006 to 2012 with respect to three sub-periods: (1 pre-crisis period: 2006–2007; (2 crisis period: 2008–2009; and (3 post-crisis period: 2010–2012. This division was constructed in this way to find out how family firms performed in crisis times in relation to nonfamily firms. In addition, the construction portfolio was chosen due to its sensitivity to recessions. When an economy faces a downturn, construction firms are among the first to be exposed to risk. The performance was measured by using the capital asset pricing model with statistical inference. We find that public family firms significantly outperformed non-family peers in the crisis times.

Drug-Resistant Bacteria: On the Edge of a Crisis | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

Science.gov (United States)

... drug-resistant bacteria research program. Why are certain bacteria becoming more resistant to drugs? There is a ... a national, even global crisis of drug-resistant bacteria. Why is that? The more we see this ...

Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sensoy, Ahmet; Sobaci, Cihat; Sensoy, Sadri; Alali, Fatih

2014-01-01

We investigate the strength and direction of information flow between exchange rates and stock prices in several emerging countries by the novel concept of effective transfer entropy (an alternative non-linear causality measure) with symbolic encoding methodology. Analysis shows that before the 2008 crisis, only low level interaction exists between these two variables and exchange rates dominate stock prices in general. During crisis, strong bidirectional interaction arises. In the post-crisis period, the strong interaction continues to exist and in general stock prices dominate exchange rates

The Impact of 2008 Global Financial Crisis on the Performance of Selected Indonesian Stocks: A Preliminary Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Suparman

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This research is a preliminary study that analyzes the impact of the US financial markets on Indonesian financial markets during the 2008 global financial crisis. It specifically investigates the occurrence of contagion effect in the Indonesian IHSG index and selected LQ45 stocks with the US S&P500 index by the measurement of correlation using simple correlation, EWMA, OGARCH, and DCC GARCH. It also attempts to discuss on the decoupling of Indonesian market and provide recommendations on dealing with future similar events.

Crisis-like behavior in China's stock market and its interpretation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Fangli; Gao, Jianbo; Liang, Shuhong

2015-01-01

In order for China to play a bigger, more positive role in the world, it is important for China to have a healthy capital market. This perception motivates us to examine the health of China's capital market, especially the severity of the overall loss of the listed companies in China and the effects of accounting irregularities on the losses. We show the overall loss of the listed companies was very severe, in particular, crisis-like behavior emerged in the fourth quarter of 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2008. We further observe that loss in the fourth quarter was much greater than the average loss of the first three quarters in the same year. The most straightforward interpretation of this loss pattern is that companies underreported losses in the first three quarters, to boost their stock values in most time of the year. However, in the fourth quarter, accounting balance of the whole year dictated that the reported loss in the fourth quarter had to be much greater than the actual loss. Fortunately, such irregularity has been greatly reduced, thanks to the accounting reforms in China in 2007.

Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.

2015-10-01

This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.

The role of crisis in family crisis intervention: do crisis experience and crisis change matter?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Al, C.M.W.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Asscher, J.J.

2011-01-01

Evaluation studies of crisis intervention have focused on prevention of out-of-home placement of children or family functioning, but largely neglected the aspect of crisis. The present study examined crisis in 183 families receiving Family Crisis Intervention (FCI), addressing crisis characteristics

Impending Doom: The Loss of Diversification before a Crisis

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Libin Yang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We present four methods of assessing the diversification potential within a stock market, and two of these are based on principal component analysis. They were applied to the Australian stock exchange for the years 2000 to 2014 and all show a consistent picture. The potential for diversification declined almost monotonically in the three years prior to the 2008 financial crisis, leaving investors poorly diversified at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. On one of the four measures, the diversification potential declined even further in the 2011 European debt crisis and the American credit downgrade.

A Comparison of Global Financial Market Recovery after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

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Foo Jennifer

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 plunged countries into a Great Recession and focused the world’s attention on the global stock markets. The global contagion has a major impact on global stock markets, with the U.S. DJIA falling to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009 from a high of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007, with a loss of more than 54%. Other stock markets also had a precipitous drop during the financial crisis. However, some equity markets have recovered while others have not. This paper looks at how global markets compared in their recovery. This paper also investigates the advanced countries’ recovery relative to the emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of the financial crisis and their ability to climb back to the pre-financial crisis levels. Analysis is provided for 31 stock indexes from January 2005 to March 2013. In 2013 the majority of analysed stock markets recovered from the crises regardless of if they belong to the group of developed or emerging markets.

Determinants of Stock Price Movements: Evidence from Chittagong Stock Exchange, Bangladesh

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Mohammed Syedul Islam

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Stock market plays a vital role in the economic development of an economy. It bridges up between savers and real manufacturers by raising funds from investors to companies. This process was broken down due to the 2010-2011 stock market crash in Bangladesh. Though the determinants of stock price have been settled empirically, the current paper aims to reexamine the relationship between stock price, dividend and retained earnings of 29 listed banks of Chittagong Stock Exchange, in the post-crash period. Cross-sectional data were collected from secondary sources. Using linear regression method, the study found that both, dividend and retained earnings of sample banks have strong influence over the stock price, though there was moderate explanatory power of those variables. After reviewing the causes of crisis 2010-2011, this study suggests the following: to control price manipulation, to publish proper financial statement, regulate the dividend policy, to ensure sufficient knowledge among investors, recruit technical expert and ensure proper settlement for transactions, prevent crises of stock market against speculation etc.

Weathering The Storm – Icelandic Municipalities’ Handling of an Unprecedented Economic Crisis

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Magnús Árni Skjöld MAGNÚSSON

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Within a few days in October 2008, following serious turmoil on financial markets worldwide, some 85% of the Icelandic banking sector collapsed, together with the Icelandic currency, the króna. Almost all the rest followed early in 2009. The Icelandic stock market took a nosedive. The Republic of Iceland had entered the worst economic crisis of its history. Icelandic municipalities, which had taken on an increasing burden of running the welfare state, were hard hit financially, without the ability of the state to help out. In fact, some of the post-crisis actions of the state, under IMF direction, were difficult for the municipalities. It did not make things easier that the crisis had been precluded by an unprecedented period of growth, encouraging the municipalities to borrow in international markets and invest in infrastructure that turned out to be superfluous in the post-crisis period. This paper will look at the reactions of the Icelandic municipalities to the crisis, the political implications of it, where they are now and if there are lessons that can be learned from the difficult years in the last decade.

The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on BM&FBovespa’s Term Structure of Conditional Correlations

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Mauro Mastella

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This article uses a BEKK-MGARCH model to identify the historical behavior of the term structure of covariance of the Brazilian BM&FBovespa stock exchange when compared to other exchanges in the American continent. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of the 2008 crisis on the cohesion of the Brazilian stock exchange when compared to the other exchanges in the sample. To this end, historical series were collected from five different stock market indexes ranging from the pre-crisis period until 2011. The bivariate modeling results indicate the presence of increased cohesion in the stock market indexes during the crisis period and the non-return of this cohesion to pre-crisis levels. They also indicate that, among the pairs analyzed, the pair of indexes IBOV x IPSA are the most appropriate choice for portfolio diversification.

The challenge to avoid anti-malarial medicine stock-outs in an era of funding partners: the case of Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkelsen-Lopez, Inez; Shango, Winna; Barrington, Jim; Ziegler, Rene; Smith, Tom; deSavigny, Don

2014-05-11

Between 2007 and 2013, the Tanzanian public sector received 93.1 million doses of first-line anti-malarial artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in the form of artemether-lumefantrine entirely supplied by funding partners. The introduction of a health facility ACT stock monitoring system using SMS technology by the National Malaria Control Programme in mid 2011 revealed a high frequency of stock-outs of ACT in primary care public health facilities. The objective of this study was to determine the pattern of availability of ACT and possible causes of observed stock-outs across public health facilities in Tanzania since mid-2011. Data were collected weekly by the mobile phone reporting tool SMS for Life on ACT availability from over 5,000 public health facilities in Tanzania starting from September 2011 to December 2012. Stock data for all four age-dose levels of ACT across health facilities were summarized and supply of ACT at the national level was also documented. Over the period of 15 months, on average 29% of health facilities in Tanzania were completely stocked out of all four-age dose levels of the first-line anti-malarial with a median duration of total stock-out of six weeks. Patterns of total stock-out by region ranged from a low of 9% to a high of 52%. The ACT stock-outs were most likely caused by: a) insufficient ACT supplies entering Tanzania (e.g. in 2012 Tanzania received 10.9 million ACT doses compared with a forecast demand of 14.4 million doses); and b) irregular pattern of ACT supply (several months with no ACT stock). The reduced ACT availability and irregular pattern of supply were due to cumbersome bureaucratic processes and delays both within the country and from the main donor, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Tanzania should invest in strengthening both the supply system and the health information system using mHealth solutions such as SMS for Life. This will continue to assist in tracking ACT availability across

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Veterans Crisis Line: Videos About Reaching out for Help

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Do Markets Cointegrate after Financial Crises? Evidence from G-20 Stock Markets

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Mahfuzul Haque

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The results of the single-equation cointegration tests indicate that patterns of cointegration in the two main and four sub-periods are not homogeneous. Two key findings emerge from the study. First, fewer stock markets cointegrated with S&P 500 during the crisis period than they did during the pre-crisis. In other words, as the 2008 financial crisis deepened, S&P 500 and G-20 stock indices moved towards less cointegration. The decreasing number of cointegrating relationships implies that the U.S. stock markets and other G-20 markets have experienced different driving forces since the start of the U.S. crisis. Second, among those markets that are cointegrated with S&P 500, they happened to be deeply affected by S&P and the shocks emerging from it. The 2007–2009 financial crises can be considered a structural break in the long-run relationship and may have resulted from effective joint intervention/responses taken by members of G-20 nations.

The impact of store satisfaction on consumer responses in out-of-stock situations

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Aleksandar Grubor

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test a conceptual model by means of which we try to establish the influence of store satisfaction and other variables (gender, mobility and availability of alternative stores on consumers’ responses to out-of-stock (OOS situations. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used a standardized questionnaire to gather data on consumer responses to OOS and then analyzed determinants including store satisfaction (for which reliability, validity and unidimensionality were tested. The survey was conducted in the four largest cities in Serbia. All respondents were interviewed randomly, through telephone calls, whereby 392 responses were gathered. The established hypotheses were tested by means of a multinomial logit model with the use of marginal effects. Findings – The results show that store satisfaction significantly affects three out-of-stock responses (store switching, postponement and product switching, whereas, positively in the case of product switching and postponement and negatively in the case of store switching. The results also show that store satisfied consumers, regardless of other factors, are not likely to switch stores in out-of-stock situations. Originality/value – As well as managerial implications, this paper included store satisfaction as an antecedent of consumer OOS responses for the first time. In addition, the impact of this variable on OOS responses was analyzed at both levels of the availability of alternative stores, gender and mobility.

Effects of the Financial Crisis on Psychotropic Drug Consumption in a Cohort from a Semi-Urban Region in Catalonia, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Barceló, Maria A.; Coll-Negre, Montserrat; Coll-de-Tuero, Gabriel; Saez, Marc

2016-01-01

Purpose Evidence of whether the recent economic crisis has or has not had an effect on psychotropic drug consumption is very scarce. Our objective was to determine if there had in fact been an increase in psychotropic drug use as a result of the financial crisis. Methods In our study a retrospective cohort (between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2012) was made up of individuals from the general population in a region in the northeast of Catalonia, Spain. We specified a generalized linear mixed model along with combined ‘selection on observables’ as (propensity scoring) matching and ‘selection on unobservables’ as (random coefficient) the panel data model methods, and performed inferences using a Bayesian framework. Results In the period following the economic crisis (post 2009), there was an increase in the consumption of psychotropic drugs which was significantly higher among those who had already been consuming psychotropic drugs prior to 2009 and those most likely to be unemployed. The increase was of greater significance when consumption was measured by the number of drugs being taken, rather than by the defined daily dose (DDD), with the greatest increase occurring in 2011; the very year in which Spain was most affected by the crisis. Conclusions Once the financial crisis had ended, there was an increase in the severity, rather than the intensity, of mental health disorders in individuals who had already had disorders before the crisis. This increase occurred in those most likely to be unemployed, and the severity was accentuated in the toughest year of the economic crisis. PMID:26872210

Effects of the Financial Crisis on Psychotropic Drug Consumption in a Cohort from a Semi-Urban Region in Catalonia, Spain.

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Maria A Barceló

Full Text Available Evidence of whether the recent economic crisis has or has not had an effect on psychotropic drug consumption is very scarce. Our objective was to determine if there had in fact been an increase in psychotropic drug use as a result of the financial crisis.In our study a retrospective cohort (between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2012 was made up of individuals from the general population in a region in the northeast of Catalonia, Spain. We specified a generalized linear mixed model along with combined 'selection on observables' as (propensity scoring matching and 'selection on unobservables' as (random coefficient the panel data model methods, and performed inferences using a Bayesian framework.In the period following the economic crisis (post 2009, there was an increase in the consumption of psychotropic drugs which was significantly higher among those who had already been consuming psychotropic drugs prior to 2009 and those most likely to be unemployed. The increase was of greater significance when consumption was measured by the number of drugs being taken, rather than by the defined daily dose (DDD, with the greatest increase occurring in 2011; the very year in which Spain was most affected by the crisis.Once the financial crisis had ended, there was an increase in the severity, rather than the intensity, of mental health disorders in individuals who had already had disorders before the crisis. This increase occurred in those most likely to be unemployed, and the severity was accentuated in the toughest year of the economic crisis.

Myopic or Dynamic Liquidity Management? : A Study of Hedge Funds around the 2008 Financial Crisis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we show that hedge funds repurchased a large amount of liquid stocks and continued to sell illiquid stocks as the 2008 financial crisis mitigated. It complements existing empirical evidence that institutional investors sold more liquid than illiquid assets during the crisis period.

A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouri, Elie

2015-01-01

Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN JAKARTA STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER PACIFIC-BASIN STOCK MARKETS

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Noer Azam Achsani

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 International capital markets linkages have been studied since early 90-es.  Most of these studies have mainly focused on the US and other developed markets. There were only a few researches on this topic in the emerging markets.  This paper examines the dynamic linkages among Indonesian and other Pacific-Basin stock markets using correlation analysis, Granger-causality and vector autoregressive (VAR approach. All the methods give generally similar results. Our empirical results indicate a high degree of international co-movement among the stock price indices.  The degree of integration among these markets after Asian Crisis increased substantially in compare to those before Asian Crisis. The results also show that there are close relationships among the geographically and economically closed markets such as ASEAN markets, New Zealand-Australian and also Hong Kong - South Korea.  The pattern of impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid transmission of stock market events. Shocks in the developed markets are immediately transmitted to other markets. Shocks in the emerging markets are also transmitted to other markets, but without such a big effect comparing to those in the developed markets. The Jakarta stock exchange is strongly correlated with other Pacific-Basin markets, especially with ASEAN markets, Hong Kong and Australia.   The strongest foreign effects for the JSX come from Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand. They can explain about 5 – 8% of error variance of the Jakarta Index. In contrast, the JSX index can explain 3 - 5 % of their error variances. 

The impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.

2017-09-01

The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.

Multifractal analysis of Asian markets during 2007-2008 financial crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Rashid; Mohammad, Salim M.

2015-02-01

2007-2008 US financial crisis adversely affected the stock markets all over the world. Asian markets also came under pressure and were differently affected. As markets under stress could reveal features that remain hidden under normal conditions, we use MF-DFA technique to investigate the multifractal structure of the US and seven Asian stock markets during the crisis period. The overall period of study, from 01 July 2002 to 31 December 2013, is divided into three sub-periods: pre-crisis period, crisis period and post-crisis period. We find during the crisis period markets of the US, Japan, Hong Kong, S. Korea and Indonesia show very strong non-linearity for positive values of the moment q. We calculate the singularity spectra, f(α) for the three sub-periods for all markets. During the crisis period, we observe that the peaks of the f(α) spectra shift to lower values of α and markets of the US, Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Indonesia exhibit increased long range correlations of large fluctuations in index returns. We also study the impact of the crisis on the power law exponent in the tail region of the cumulative return distribution and find that by excluding the crisis period from the overall data sets, the tail exponent increases across all markets.

COMPARATIVE RESEARCH ON THE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF SHARES FROM COMPANIES LISTED ON BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

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Mihaela-Cristina Onica

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Upon passing to a market economy, it became necessary to find out information as accurate as possible regarding the risk of bankruptcy of a certain companyin the future, in order to determine the share of such a risk and the importance of the fundamental analysis within the prediction of the evolution of stock price. In spite of these, specialists say that this type of analysis, in relation to the technical analysis, in the context of the financial crisis, determined an accentuated decrease of the stock exchange indices on an international level. The paper deals with the results of the research and of a comparative study regarding the fundamental analysis of the shares of 6 companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB.

The impact of foreign investors on the Serbian stock market

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Rakočević Rade

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Frontier markets, such as Serbia, which are at the early stages of development, are characterized by very low level of solvency, absence of corporate management rules and reports to the public, insufficiently developed regulations, as well as significant participation of foreign portfolio investors in the exchange. Those are usually foreign investment funds specialized in risky investments at such markets; they apply the principle of geographic portfolio diversification in their investment policy. At the Belgrade Stock Exchange, foreign investors have been present at the stock market since 2002 and they participated in high volumes in stock buying during the stock market growth in the period from 2002 to 2007, whereas during the crisis at the Serbian capital market from 2008 to 2010 there was a significant increase in foreign investors' participation on the selling side and a withdrawal from the Belgrade Stock Exchange. Such behavior of foreign investors was initially prompted by local factors, but was intensified by the global financial crisis and will be analyzed in this paper.

Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value at Risk: from the Dot- Com crisis to the global financial crisis

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Manuel Sousa Gabrie

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.

The Moderating Influence of Supermarket Satisfaction on Out-of-stock Store Switching Behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Torben; Beckmann, Suzanne C.; Solgaard, Hans Stubbe

2015-01-01

Consumer store switching behaviour – going to another store to buy an item that is out-of-stock – is often considered to be associated with high brand loyalty in combination with low store loyalty, making a study of the causes for such behaviour highly important to both store and brand managers...

Diffusion of subsidized ACTs in accredited drug shops in Tanzania: determinants of stocking and characteristics of early and late adopters.

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Peter S; Yadav, Prashant; Alphs, Sarah; Arkedis, Jean; Massaga, Julius; Sabot, Oliver; Cohen, Jessica L

2013-12-18

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly

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Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

Science.gov (United States)

Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

The Eurozone's arrested adolescence: Sketching a way out of the crisis

OpenAIRE

Erixon, Fredrik

2012-01-01

The Eurozone crisis has been reinforced and prolonged by leaders' inability to agree on robust and credible crisis responses. Individual governments are experiencing sovereign deficit and debt crises, but not the Eurozone at large. Its fiscal position is manageable. The Eurozone is rather going through a crisis of the sovereign - or a crisis of government. Too many of the crisis solutions offered by Eurozone leaders have commanded neither authority nor electoral legitimacy. (...)

The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xueyong; An, Haizhong; Huang, Shupei; Wen, Shaobo

2017-01-01

Aiming to investigate the evolution of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in the time and frequency dimensions, we employed WTI crude oil prices, the S&P 500 (USA) index and the MICEX index (Russia) for the period Jan. 2003-Dec. 2014 as sample data. We first applied a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK method to examine the spillover features in frequency dimension. To consider the evolution of spillover effects in time dimension at multiple-scales, we then divided the full sample period into three sub-periods, pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period. The results indicate that spillover effects vary across wavelet scales in terms of strength and direction. By analysis the time-varying linkage, we found the different evolution features of spillover effects between the Oil-US stock market and Oil-Russia stock market. The spillover relationship between oil and US stock market is shifting to short-term while the spillover relationship between oil and Russia stock market is changing to all time scales. That result implies that the linkage between oil and US stock market is weakening in the long-term, and the linkage between oil and Russia stock market is getting close in all time scales. This may explain the phenomenon that the US stock index and the Russia stock index showed the opposite trend with the falling of oil price in the post-crisis period.

Panic, slash, or crash-Do black swans flap in stock markets?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Huang, Han-Lin

2018-02-01

Stock transaction data typically present a time series that exhibits a somewhat confusing trend, making it difficult to issue any form of crisis warning. This study employs Fourier spectrum analysis to clearly show manic and irrational investors chasing prices. When clustering generates an enormous amount of unstable power, the result is a stock market collapsing into a danger area that can be taken as a warning signal. We thus take the Dow Jones Index as a typical stock market and employ daily data from 1994-2015. This study finds the investors' purchasing power through certain thresholds, analyses the performance characteristics of the spectrum, and denotes when a stock market is in a most serious crisis stage and in a second most serious correction stage. The result of our study indicates that the warning signal accurately measures a stock market crash that can be applicable to the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index, and Germany ADX Index and to the emerging markets of Bovespa Index (Brazil) and Shanghai Index (China). Furthermore, this study provides a quantitative reference concerning the depth of market crashes.

THE EARNINGS PER SHARE AND INVENTORY TURNOVER RATIOS IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY FOR FOOD AND TEXTILE SECTORS IN ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

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Sudi APAK

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The ongoing financial crisis in the global markets, which originated in the US subprime mortgage segment (real estate and quickly spread into other market segments and countries, is already seen today as one of the biggest financial crises in history. Underlying the subprime crisis had essentially two interrelated factors; the boom in US real estate markets, and the high liquidity demand in the global financial markets. The later period was, in turn, fuelled by the significant easing of US monetary policy over an extended period of time and by the additional boost to global liquidity as many emerging markets had tied their exchange rates to the US dollar and therefore had to match the expansive US monetary policy. The occurrence of market crash or financial crisis is possible key factor of earning per share (EPS and inventory turnover ratios (ITR inefficiency. This paper empirically investigates that the effects of the current financial crisis on the efficiency -earning per share (EPS and inventory turnover ratios- listed food and textile companies in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE. The EPS and inventory turnover ratios, applying the multivariate test statistics for the two sub-periods of pre-crisis and the crisis time. The article proceeds in the following manner. Firstly, the study will explain main reasons of global financial crises. Secondly the study will analyze all EPS and inventory turnover ratios changing are of related companies. Finally, that will be argued for adjustment of related ratios of sectors.

The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity

OpenAIRE

Theoharry Grammatikos; Robert Vermeulen

2012-01-01

This paper highlights the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity on 91 US industries' stock performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We account explicitly for changes in the market model and investigate, next to stock returns, the changes in systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the financial crisis. The results show that leverage has a significantly positive effect on systematic risk changes during the financial crisis. After accounting for the chang...

The Interplay Between the Thai and Several Other International Stock Markets

OpenAIRE

Valadkhani, Abbas; Chancharat, Surachai; Harvie, Charles

2006-01-01

The paper analyses the effect of various international stock market price indices and some relevant macroeconomic variables on the Thai stock market price index, using a GARCH-M model and monthly data from January 1988 to December 2004. It is found, inter alia, that (a) changes in stock market returns in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in the pre-1997 Asian crisis, and changes in Singapore, the Philippines and Korea in the post-1997 era instantaneously influenced returns in the Thai stock m...

Risk assessment and stock market volatility in the Eurozone: 1986-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Menezes, Rui; Oliveira, Álvaro

2015-04-01

This paper studies the stock market return's volatility in the Eurozone as an input for evaluating the market risk. Stock market returns are endogenously determined by long-term interest rate changes and so is the return's conditional variance. The conditional variance is the time-dependent variance of the underlying variable. In other words, it is the variance of the returns measured at each moment t, so it changes through time depending on the specific market structure at each time observation. Thus, a multivariate EGARCH model is proposed to capture the complex nature of this network. By network, in this context, we mean the chain of stock exchanges that co-move and interact in such a way that a shock in one of them propagates up to the other ones (contagion). Previous studies provide evidence that the Eurozone stock exchanges are deeply integrated. The results indicate that asymmetry and leverage effects exist along with fat tails and endogeneity. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests provide clear evidence that the multivariate EGARCH model performs better than the univariate counterpart to predict the behavior of returns both before and after the 2008 crisis.

Financial Crisis and Corporate Social Responsible Mutual Fund Flows

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Sitikantha Parida

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate investment flows into mutual funds that hold more high corporate social responsible stocks (top CSR funds vs. mutual funds that hold more low corporate social responsible stocks (bottom CSR funds. Using a large sample of equity mutual funds spanning 2003–2012, we find that top CSR funds on average receive about 5% less investment per annum compared to the other funds; whereas bottom CSR funds receive about 5.6% more investments. These relative negative and positive flows into the top and bottom CSR funds respectively were larger during the pre-financial crisis period (2003–2007. This trend, however, reversed during the financial crisis (2008–2009. Top CSR funds attracted about 8.7% more investments during the financial crisis compared to the pre-crisis period; whereas bottom CSR funds received about 9.8% less investment. This higher investment into the top CSR funds during the crisis seems to have disappeared during the post-crisis period (2009–2012. Additional analysis shows that the corporate social ratings of top CSR funds improved through the crisis, whereas it deteriorated for the bottom CSR funds. Our findings are consistent with the “flight to quality” phenomenon observed in financial markets during market crises, indicating that investors perceive top CSR fund investments as relatively safe or of higher quality and hence, invest more in them during financial crises.

Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

OpenAIRE

Dahiru A. Bala; Taro Takimoto

2017-01-01

This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs) using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH) models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009) on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs) are lower compared w...

Does the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect significantly affect the A-H premium of the stocks?

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Eddie C. M.; Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin

2018-02-01

Since the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect ("the Connect") was launched in late 2014, more and more Mainland investors have invested in Hong Kong listed shares, and vice versa, increasing the transaction volume of the stock market on both sides. However, only a few studies investigated how the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect affected the pricing dynamics of stocks listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong. Applying linear regression, this study investigates how the Connect affects the H-share discounts of 12 stocks cross-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong. A new feature of our model is that we add a dummy variable so as to be the first study to examine the effect of the China financial crisis on the A-H premium of the stocks. We find that the A-H premium of all stocks widens significantly after the Connect is launched, implying immatureness or even inefficiency of China's financial market. Furthermore, the result shows that trading activities in the mainland market affects the A-H premium more significantly than trading activities in the Hong Kong market do. This implies that China's financial market plays a dominant role in the Connect.

Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

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Najmudin Najmudin

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

Fractal stock markets: International evidence of dynamical (in)efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Bianchi, Sergio; Frezza, Massimiliano

2017-07-01

The last systemic financial crisis has reawakened the debate on the efficient nature of financial markets, traditionally described as semimartingales. The standard approaches to endow the general notion of efficiency of an empirical content turned out to be somewhat inconclusive and misleading. We propose a topological-based approach to quantify the informational efficiency of a financial time series. The idea is to measure the efficiency by means of the pointwise regularity of a (stochastic) function, given that the signature of a martingale is that its pointwise regularity equals 1/2 . We provide estimates for real financial time series and investigate their (in)efficient behavior by comparing three main stock indexes.

Comparative Analysis of Investment Funds Stocks-based Portfolios and BET Stocks-based Portfolios

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Ion STANCU

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we intend to find out what is the best choice of stocks-based portfolio. The major goal is to find whether is more efficient to invest the whole capital in a single sector, like financial investments, or to create a diversified portfolio, taking into account assets from various economic sectors. Capital allocation will be based on the concept of cointegration. We have chosen this method because it can be applied on non-stationary data series, and, besides, it has the advantage of using the whole set of information provided by the financial assets. Another goal is to study how the portfolio structure adjusts if a shock occurs during the period under analysis so that to preserve a certain return or minimize a potential loss. The study will result in an investment solution in the Romanian capital market, even in the context of financial crisis.

How much diversification potential is there in a single market? Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

OpenAIRE

Yang, Libin; Rea, William; Rea, Alethea

2015-01-01

We present four methods of assessing the diversification potential within a stock market, two of these are based on principal component analysis. They were applied to the Australian stock exchange for the years 2000 to 2014 and all show a consistent picture. The potential for diversification declined almost monotonically in the three years prior to the 2008 financial crisis. On one of the measures the diversification potential declined even further in the 2011 European debt crisis and the Ame...

L’Italia: una crisi nella crisi.(Italy: A Crisis within the Crisis

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Carlo D'ippoliti

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The article synthesises the large and extending literature on the financial and economic crisis from a Post-Keynesian point of view. The authors take on the position that the international and internal real imbalances are serious and worrying, but yet they are not the cause of the crisis or of its tremendous dimension. The flawed and insufficient regulation of finance is the prime cause of the crisis, as well as it is one of the main hindrances to expansionary macroeconomic policies that may less painfully drive developed countries out of the crisis. It then examines the most recent developments in the euro-area, claiming that we are not facing a sovereign debt crisis but rather a speculative attack on the euro. Finally, the article considers specifically the situation of Italy, currently at the hearth of such an attack, and suggests that the country was already facing critical developments before the 2007/2008 crisis. Thus, the policy measures so far suggested to exit the current stressful situation, in so far as they ignore this fact, seriously run the risk of proving insufficient or altogether noxious.JEL: B50; E12; G01  

Correlating stock exchange indices under both normal and financial crisis conditions

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Gabriela-Victoria ANGHELACHE

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Until the years 1980 the financial crisis were considered as being limited to the level of the capital market (individually, without bearing a systemic character. If considering the intensification of the globalization process, we attended at the increase of the degree of commercial and financial integration of the states all over the world. Thus, gradually, the local financial crisis have propagated at the level of the world financial system. The consequences of these financial crisis did not limited to the markets of the countries where they launched, but spread rapidly on the world markets – an effect known in the literature as contagion. In this article we have tried to evaluate the importance of the contagion effects on the capital markets, by utilizing certain econometric methods, from the correlation tests, to the co-integration tests. Meantime, we have tried to show that during the period of the most severe financial crisis from the Second World War up to date, the degree of correlation of the markets amplifies.

Causal Nexus between Stock Price, Demand for Money, Interest Rate, Foreign Institutional Investment, and Exchange Rates in India: A Post Subprime Crisis Analysis

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Iti Vyas

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This  paper  makes  an  attempt  to  empirically  examine  the  causal  nexus  between  stock price, demand for money, interest rates, foreign institutional investment and exchange rates in India in the post subprime mortgage crisis period. The study employed Granger causality test, Vector Auto Regression and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure to examine the short  run  and  long  run  dynamic  interaction  among  the  above  mentioned  variables  for  the period January 1993 to May 2009. The major indings of the study are: stock return affects exchange rate return, net foreign institutional investment and growth of demand for money. Growth  of  demand  for  money,  in  turn,  affects  interest  rate.  Interest  rate  is  more  affected by exchange rate return. Foreign institutional investment also affects interest rate. The co-integration  test  conirms  that  there  does  not  exist  any  long  run  equilibrium  relationship between stock return and exchange rate return ";} // -->activate javascript

When Quality Beats Quantity: Decision Theory, Drug Discovery, and the Reproducibility Crisis.

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Jack W Scannell

Full Text Available A striking contrast runs through the last 60 years of biopharmaceutical discovery, research, and development. Huge scientific and technological gains should have increased the quality of academic science and raised industrial R&D efficiency. However, academia faces a "reproducibility crisis"; inflation-adjusted industrial R&D costs per novel drug increased nearly 100 fold between 1950 and 2010; and drugs are more likely to fail in clinical development today than in the 1970s. The contrast is explicable only if powerful headwinds reversed the gains and/or if many "gains" have proved illusory. However, discussions of reproducibility and R&D productivity rarely address this point explicitly. The main objectives of the primary research in this paper are: (a to provide quantitatively and historically plausible explanations of the contrast; and (b identify factors to which R&D efficiency is sensitive. We present a quantitative decision-theoretic model of the R&D process. The model represents therapeutic candidates (e.g., putative drug targets, molecules in a screening library, etc. within a "measurement space", with candidates' positions determined by their performance on a variety of assays (e.g., binding affinity, toxicity, in vivo efficacy, etc. whose results correlate to a greater or lesser degree. We apply decision rules to segment the space, and assess the probability of correct R&D decisions. We find that when searching for rare positives (e.g., candidates that will successfully complete clinical development, changes in the predictive validity of screening and disease models that many people working in drug discovery would regard as small and/or unknowable (i.e., an 0.1 absolute change in correlation coefficient between model output and clinical outcomes in man can offset large (e.g., 10 fold, even 100 fold changes in models' brute-force efficiency. We also show how validity and reproducibility correlate across a population of simulated

Have East Asian stock markets calmed down? Evidence from a regime-switching model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chaudhuri, K.R.; Klaassen, F.

2001-01-01

The 1997-98 East Asian crisis was accompanied by high volatility of East Asian stock returns. This paper examines whether the volatility has already come down to the level of the years before the crisis. We use a regime-switching model to account for possible structural change in the unconditional

A Mean-Variance Diagnosis of the Financial Crisis: International Diversification and Safe Havens

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Alexander Eptas

2010-12-01

Full Text Available We use mean-variance analysis with short selling constraints to diagnose the effects of the recent global financial crisis by evaluating the potential benefits of international diversification in the search for ‘safe havens’. We use stock index data for a sample of developed, advanced-emerging and emerging countries. ‘Text-book’ results are obtained for the pre-crisis analysis with the optimal portfolio for any risk-averse investor being obtained as the tangency portfolio of the All-Country portfolio frontier. During the crisis there is a disjunction between bank lending and stock markets revealed by negative average returns and an absence of any empirical Capital Market Line. Israel and Colombia emerge as the safest havens for any investor during the crisis. For Israel this may reflect the protection afforded by special trade links and diaspora support, while for Colombia we speculate that this reveals the impact on world financial markets of the demand for cocaine.

Examining evidence of ‘shift-contagion’ in African stock markets: A CoVaR-copula approach

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Gideon Boako

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines for the first time contagion to African stock markets with particular attention to the quantification of, and testing for the impact of (extreme downside movements in foreign exchange and developed stock markets on the (extreme downside risks in Africa stock markets. Using data of weekly periodicity, the empirical analysis captured the pre, during (both turmoil and acute, and post periods of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. We analyzed contagion by comparing (extreme downside cumulative mean distribution conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR values for African stock markets for successive periods and tested for significance of contagion using the Kolmogorov–Smirnoff (KS bootstrap technique. We used the KS statistic to test the hypothesis of equality or no systemic impact between the conditional African stock market return quantiles (for different successive sub-samples. CoVaR values are computed from four copula specifications — Gaussian, Student-t, Gumbel and Rotated Gumbel. By situating the empirical analysis within the shift-contagion thesis, we found evidence of contagion from some exchange rate and developed equity markets to African stocks only in the acute and the post-crisis periods. The findings are consistent with the view that global shocks propagation to developing markets may stagger during crisis and intensify post-crisis. A practical implication from the results is that given the relatively scarce resources and levels of technological know-how available to African governments, efforts to wean the continent’s equity markets from adverse effects of global market crashes should be geared towards plans and programmes to mitigate the shocks not at the early stages but latter stages, where the effects to Africa could be pronouncedly felt.

Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.; in 't Veld, D.

2014-01-01

The global financial crisis indicated the limitations of representative rational agent models for asset pricing solely based on economic fundamentals. We estimate a simple behavioural heterogeneous agents model with boundedly rational traders in which the fundamental value of the stock prices is

The stock selection problem: Is the stock selection approach more important than the optimization method? Evidence from the Danish stock market

OpenAIRE

Grobys, Klaus

2011-01-01

Passive investment strategies basically aim to replicate an underlying benchmark. Thereby, the management usually selects a subset of stocks being employed in the optimization procedure. Apart from the optimization procedure, the stock selection approach determines the stock portfolios' out-of-sample performance. The empirical study here takes into account the Danish stock market from 2000-2010 and gives evidence that stock portfolios including small companies' stocks being estimated via coin...

Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Technical and Vocational ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

2011-05-20

May 20, 2011 ... factors, which also mutually interact with each other (Coombs, 1985). In Nigeria the global economic crisis (GEC) has led to depletion of stocks, ..... The Study of Instructional Communication Strategies in Nigerian Universities.

Liquidity spillover in international stock markets through distinct time scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Righi, Marcelo Brutti; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

This paper identifies liquidity spillovers through different time scales based on a wavelet multiscaling method. We decompose daily data from U.S., British, Brazilian and Hong Kong stock markets indices in order to calculate the scale correlation between their illiquidities. The sample is divided in order to consider non-crisis, sub-prime crisis and Eurozone crisis. We find that there are changes in correlations of distinct scales and different periods. Association in finest scales is smaller than in coarse scales. There is a rise on associations in periods of crisis. In frequencies, there is predominance for significant distinctions involving the coarsest scale, while for crises periods there is predominance for distinctions on the finest scale.

Mutual Information Based Analysis for the Distribution of Financial Contagion in Stock Markets

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Xudong Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper applies mutual information to research the distribution of financial contagion in global stock markets during the US subprime crisis. First, we symbolize the daily logarithmic stock returns based on their quantiles. Then, the mutual information of the stock indices is calculated and the block bootstrap approach is adopted to test the financial contagion. We analyze not only the contagion distribution during the entire crisis period but also its evolution over different stages by using the sliding window method. The empirical results prove the widespread existence of financial contagion and show that markets impacted by contagion tend to cluster geographically. The distribution of the contagion strength is positively skewed and leptokurtic. The average contagion strength is low at the beginning and then witnesses an uptrend. It has larger values in the middle stage and declines in the late phase of the crisis. Meanwhile, the cross-regional contagion between Europe and America is stronger than that between either America and Asia or Europe and Asia. Europe is found to be the region most deeply impacted by the contagion, whereas Asia is the least affected.

Compression stockings

Science.gov (United States)

Call your health insurance or prescription plan: Find out if they pay for compression stockings. Ask if your durable medical equipment benefit pays for compression stockings. Get a prescription from your doctor. Find a medical equipment store where they can ...

STOCK PRICES OF DOMESTIC BANKING SECTOR AND EXTERNAL SHOCKS IN EAST ASIA

OpenAIRE

Masahiro Inoguchi

2011-01-01

This paper examines the impact of price fluctuations in foreign stock markets on the stock prices of domestic banks’ stocks to explore if and how external shocks have affected the banking system in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand during the 2000s. Some researchers insist that domestic banks in East Asia were less affected by the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. However, few previous articles have investigated how the banking sector in East Asia has been affected by external shocks....

The impact of brand equity and the hedonic level of products on consumer stock-out reactions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sloot, LM; Verhoef, PC; Franses, PH

2005-01-01

We investigate the impact of brand equity and the hedonic level of the product on consumer stock-out responses. We also examine whether the hedonic level of the product moderates the effect of brand equity. Using a sample of Dutch consumers divided over eight product groups and eight retail chains,

Asymmetry Effects in Volatility on the Major European Stock Markets: the EGARCH Based Approach

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Joanna Olbrys

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric impact of innovations on volatility in the case of the largest European stock markets in the United Kingdom, France and Germany by using the EGARCH based approach. The sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2016, and it includes the 2007 U.S. subprime crisis. The robustness analysis of empirical results is provided with respect to the whole sample and three adjacent subsamples, each of equal size: 1 the pre-crisis, 2 the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and 3 the post-crisis periods. The GFC periods are formally detected by using a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. Moreover, the common trading window procedure is employed to avoid the nonsynchronous trading problem in the group of investigated markets and to get the overlapping information set. We estimate univariate EGARCH models based on daily percentage logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes: FTSE100 (London, CAC40 (Paris, and DAX (Frankfurt. Pronounced negative asymmetry effects in volatility are presented in the case of all markets and are rather robust to the choice of the period. Our findings are consistent with the literature and suggest that the major European stock markets are more sensitive to ’bad’ than ‘good’ news.

Did the US macroeconomic conditions affect Asian stock markets?

OpenAIRE

Seema Narayan; Paresh Kumar Narayan

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of US macroeconomic conditions—namely, exchange rate and short-term interest rate—on the stocks of seven Asian countries (China,India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea). Using daily data for the period 2000 to 2010, we divide the sample into pre-crisis period (pre-August 2007) and crisis period (post-August 2007) we find that in the short-run interest rate has a statistically insignificant effect on returns for all ...

Pre and post crisis analysis of stock price and exchange rate: Evidence from Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Baharom, A.H.; Habibullah, M.S.; R.C., Royfaizal

2008-01-01

The furore and chaos created by the Asian financial crisis have ignited many studies on numerous subjects, and it is believed that the crisis has changed the way nations being administered and policies formed and implemented especially those regarding monetary and fiscal policies. Johansen (1991) cointegration method was used and the period was divided into two sub periods, albeit pre crisis and post crisis. The results obtained are similar with a number of past literatures pointing to no lon...

Carrying Out Municipal Tasks in the Scope of Housing Stock Management – Case Study of Poznań City

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Trojanek Maria

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The municipal real estate stock, including housing, serves as an asset base in the process of carrying out statutory tasks by the municipality. Due to the numerous functions of municipal housing in socioeconomic development and its influence on people’s living conditions, it is essential that local governments manage the stock with particular rationality and effectiveness. Management activities differ according to the aim, type and functions of the stock. This paper discusses conditions and potential benefits for the municipality from replacing budgetary units with commercial companies that take over the statutory tasks of municipalities in the field of public social housing and providing the right conditions to enable people’s housing needs to be met. Furthermore, the author presents possible financial settlement forms resulting from leasing municipal housing to commercial companies.

Availability of essential drugs for managing HIV-related pain and symptoms within 120 PEPFAR-funded health facilities in East Africa: a cross-sectional survey with onsite verification.

Science.gov (United States)

Harding, Richard; Simms, Victoria; Penfold, Suzanne; Downing, Julia; Powell, Richard A; Mwangi-Powell, Faith; Namisango, Eve; Moreland, Scott; Gikaara, Nancy; Atieno, Mackuline; Kataike, Jennifer; Nsubuga, Clare; Munene, Grace; Banga, Geoffrey; Higginson, Irene J

2014-04-01

World Health Organization's essential drugs list can control the highly prevalent HIV-related pain and symptoms. Availability of essential medicines directly influences clinicians' ability to effectively manage distressing manifestations of HIV. To determine the availability of pain and symptom controlling drugs in East Africa within President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief-funded HIV health care facilities. Directly observed quantitative health facilities' pharmacy stock review. We measured availability, expiration and stock-outs of specified drugs required for routine HIV management, including the World Health Organization pain ladder. A stratified random sample in 120 President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief-funded HIV care facilities (referral and district hospitals, health posts/centres and home-based care providers) in Kenya and Uganda. Non-opioid analgesics (73%) and co-trimoxazole (64%) were the most commonly available drugs and morphine (7%) the least. Drug availability was higher in hospitals and lower in health centres, health posts and home-based care facilities. Facilities generally did not use minimum stock levels, and stock-outs were frequently reported. The most common drugs had each been out of stock in the past 6 months in 47% of facilities stocking them. When a minimum stock level was defined, probability of a stock-out in the previous 6 months was 32.6%, compared to 45.5% when there was no defined minimum stock level (χ (2) = 5.07, p = 0.024). The data demonstrate poor essential drug availability, particularly analgesia, limited by facility type. The lack of strong opioids, isoniazid and paediatric formulations is concerning. Inadequate drug availability prevents implementation of simple clinical pain and symptom control protocols, causing unnecessary distress. Research is needed to identify supply chain mechanisms that lead to these problems.

Internal and external influence in the US stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Borysov, Stanislav; Roudi, Yasser; Balatsky, Alexander

2014-03-01

We analyze the multivariate distribution of the US stock returns using pairwise interaction models, inspired by Ising models in glasses and neural networks. Using the inference methods from neural networks analysis we find unique descriptors of the dynamics of stock returns in periods of crisis. Our findings suggest that the near crash dynamics is primarily governed by external factors (external fields), while internal network structure (J couplings) are not significantly affected. This work is supported by Nordita and VR VCB 621-2012-2983.

A viability analysis for a stock/price model

Science.gov (United States)

Jerry, Chakib; Raissi, Nadia

2012-09-01

We examine the conditions for the sustainability of a stock/price system based on the use of a marine renewable resource. Instead of studying the environmental and economic interactions in terms of optimal control, we focus on the viability of the system. These viability/crisis situations are defined by a set of economic state constraints. This constraints combine a guaranteed consumption and a minimum income for fishermen. Using the mathematical concept of viability kernel, we reveal that with only economics constraints we guarantee a perennial stock/price system.

Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

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Ana Mugoša

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are theirmain investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.

The Asian crisis contagion: A dynamic correlation approach analysis

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Essaadi Essahbi

2009-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we are testing for contagion caused by the Thai baht collapse of July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change within the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt Bai and Perron's (1998 structural break approach in order to detect the endogenous break points of the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach enables us to solve the misspecification problem of the crisis window. Our results illustrate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand.

On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence

OpenAIRE

Jiranyakul, Komain

2011-01-01

This paper provides new evidence on the positive risk-return tradeoff in the Thai stock market using monthly data. An AR(p)-GARCH-in-mean model is applied to the data from January 1981 to December 2009. Since stock prices and dividend series are not cointegrated, the excess returns are separately calculated as capital gain and dividend excess returns. By incorporating the dummy variables that capture the impact of the 1987 global stock market crash and the Asian 1997 financial crisis in th...

L’Italia: una crisi nella crisi

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Alessandro Roncaglia

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The article synthesises the large and extending literature on the financial and economic crisis from a Post-Keynesian point of view. The authors take on the position that the international and internal real imbalances are serious and worrying, but yet they are not the cause of the crisis or of its tremendous dimension. The flawed and insufficient regulation of finance is the prime cause of the crisis, as well as it is one of the main hindrances to expansionary macroeconomic policies that may less painfully drive developed countries out of the crisis. It then examines the most recent developments in the euro-area, claiming that we are not facing a sovereign debt crisis but rather a speculative attack on the euro. Finally, the article considers specifically the situation of Italy, currently at the hearth of such an attack, and suggests that the country was already facing critical developments before the 2007/2008 crisis. Thus, the policy measures so far suggested to exit the current stressful situation, in so far as they ignore this fact, seriously run the risk of proving insufficient or altogether noxious.

Narratives of crisis: identity crisis or crisis of meaning?!

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Roseli Araújo Barros Costa

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This article is about a review of a broader research on the understanding of the professional development of Mathematics teachers, especially the results of the analysis of one of the selected categories, the projectors and the crisis narratives. This analysis was theoretically supported by Larrosa (2002. To carry out the research, we adopted the qualitative research, with a narrative focus, based on semi-structured interviews about the life history of a teacher who teaches mathematics in Basic Education. Based on a concept of professional development taken from a continuous perspective, idealized in a broader context of teaching work, permeating crises and conflicts, the analysis shows that the teacher's crisis reports are related to factors such as: low salaries, conflicts in her current institution Lack of social prestige and insecurity. His reports reveal that initial training did nothing to address the "new" changes in education. It shows that their lack of enthusiasm is associated with the emptying of the useful meaning of their formation, which results from the overvaluation of their exchange value. However, a crisis narrative can construct the present as a critical moment in the double sense of the word as a decisive moment and, at the same time, as a moment in which the subject critically recovers his own history, appropriates himself critically To find out where it is and to decide its own movement (LARRROSA, 2002. The individual, by critically restoring his history, can rethink the past, think the present, and (reconstruct his own future. The teacher, in her crisis narratives, shows that, by critically recovering her story, by putting out all her "revolt", she opens a "door" that will possibly show a new path to be taken. This seeks new challenges for their professional development

Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

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Lei Tan

Full Text Available A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Lei; Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Ouyang, Fang-Yan

2016-01-01

A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

Can a Public Scholarship Program Successfully Reduce School Drop-Outs in a Time of Economic Crisis? Evidence from Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Lisa

2009-01-01

This paper evaluates the role played by Indonesia's Social Safety Net Scholarships Program in reducing school drop-out rates during the Asian financial crisis. The expectation was that many families would find it difficult to keep their children in school and drop-out rates would be high. The scholarships are found to have been effective in…

Changes of hierarchical network in local and world stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Patwary, Enayet Ullah; Lee, Jong Youl; Nobi, Ashadun; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

2017-10-01

We consider the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns in the local and global stock markets. We generate the minimal spanning tree (MST) using the correlation matrix. We observe that the MSTs change their structure from chain-like networks to star-like networks during periods of market uncertainty. We quantify the measure of the hierarchical network utilizing the value of the hierarchy measured by the hierarchical path. The hierarchy and betweenness centrality characterize the state of the market regarding the impact of crises. During crises, the non-financial company is established as the central node of the MST. However, before the crisis and during stable periods, the financial company is occupying the central node of the MST in the Korean and the U.S. stock markets. The changes in the network structure and the central node are good indicators of an upcoming crisis.

Estonia: In and Out of Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Trasberg

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses Estonian economic developments during the first decade of 21st century. Estonia provided in that period a clear-cut example of the classical business cycle with an extreme bubble-burst sequence of economic activities. The author analyses the reasons on such a volatile economic growth pattern and explains economic cycle management particularities in Estonia. In the frames of macroeconomic developments will be analyzed monetary and fiscal policies. The author argues, that Estonia’s fiscal policy has been always pro-cyclical, what has deepened country’s macroeconomic volatility. The paper also analyses critically the government activities and policies during the recent crisis

Memory, forgetting, and economic crisis: drug use and social fragmentation in an Argentine shantytown.

Science.gov (United States)

Epele, Maria E

2010-03-01

Closely linked to the increase in psychotropic pill consumption, forgetting and remembering emerged from devastated social scenarios as a new local idiom among poor youth in the late 1990s and the new millennium. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork carried out during the years of the deepest economic crisis in Argentina (2001-03), I argue that psychotropic pill consumption is associated with not only deteriorating economic conditions but also changes in the quality and price of cocaine, and in the scarcity and subsequent change of status of medications during the economic breakdown. Taking into account developments in the field of memory studies, I examine the relationship among political economy, social memory work, and changing drug-use practices. Regarding memory as a social practice, I argue that the growth of psychotropic pill consumption in the late 1990s can be understood through the interplay of Paul Ricoeur's notions regarding different kinds and levels of forgetting. By analyzing changing survival strategies, social network dismantlement, changing mortality patterns, and abusive police repression, I discuss how social fragmentation engendered by structural reforms has modified social memory work.

The role of currency swaps in the domestic banking system and the functioning the swap market during the crisis

OpenAIRE

Judit Páles; Zsolt Kuti; Csaba Csávás

2011-01-01

The basic purpose of this study is to didactically demonstrate the factors shaping the currency swap stock of domestic banks prior to the crisis and to provide a descriptive analysis of how the structure and the functioning of the market changed during the crisis. The main conclusions of the study are as follows. In addition to the wide ranging applicability of the transaction, the rise in the currency swap stock of domestic credit institutions is also attributable to macroeconomic factors. T...

Statistical analysis of bankrupting and non-bankrupting stocks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qian; Wang, Fengzhong; Wei, Jianrong; Liang, Yuan; Huang, Jiping; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-04-01

The recent financial crisis has caused extensive world-wide economic damage, affecting in particular those who invested in companies that eventually filed for bankruptcy. A better understanding of stocks that become bankrupt would be helpful in reducing risk in future investments. Economists have conducted extensive research on this topic, and here we ask whether statistical physics concepts and approaches may offer insights into pre-bankruptcy stock behavior. To this end, we study all 20092 stocks listed in US stock markets for the 20-year period 1989-2008, including 4223 (21 percent) that became bankrupt during that period. We find that, surprisingly, the distributions of the daily returns of those stocks that become bankrupt differ significantly from those that do not. Moreover, these differences are consistent for the entire period studied. We further study the relation between the distribution of returns and the length of time until bankruptcy, and observe that larger differences of the distribution of returns correlate with shorter time periods preceding bankruptcy. This behavior suggests that sharper fluctuations in the stock price occur when the stock is closer to bankruptcy. We also analyze the cross-correlations between the return and the trading volume, and find that stocks approaching bankruptcy tend to have larger return-volume cross-correlations than stocks that are not. Furthermore, the difference increases as bankruptcy approaches. We conclude that before a firm becomes bankrupt its stock exhibits unusual behavior that is statistically quantifiable.

Causation analysis between stock price and exchange rate: Pre and post crisis study on Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Baharom, A.H.; Royfaizal, R. C; Habibullah, M.S.

2008-01-01

The furore and chaos created by the Asian financial crisis have ignited many studies on numerous subjects, and it is believed that the crisis has changed the way nations being administered and policies formed and implemented especially those regarding monetary and fiscal policies. Johansen (1991) cointegration method was used and the period was divided into two sub periods, albeit pre crisis and post crisis. The results obtained are similar with a number of past literatures pointing to no lon...

Locked down and out: Crisis at Central High

Science.gov (United States)

Barron Ausbrooks, Carrie Y.

2010-01-01

This case study is designed for preservice school administrators enrolled in principalship and school law courses in educational administration. It describes an incident in which a school's crisis management and communication protocol were challenged. One day, through a series of unanticipated events, an assistant principal is engulfed in a test…

Immediate causality network of stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Li; Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2018-02-01

Extensive works show that a network of stocks within a single stock market stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system, such as collapses and/or crises. But a financial event covers usually several markets or even the global financial system. This mismatch of scale leads to lack of concise information to coordinate the event. In this work by using the transfer entropy we reconstruct the influential network between ten typical stock markets distributed in the world. Interesting findings include, before a financial crisis the connection strength reaches a maximum, which can act as an early warning signal of financial crises. The markets in America are monodirectionally and strongly influenced by that in Europe and act as the center. Some strongly linked pairs have also close correlations. The findings are helpful in understanding the evolution and modelling the dynamical process of the global financial system. This method can be extended straightly to find early warning signals for physiological and ecological systems, etc.

Getting out of the game: desistance from drug trafficking.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Howard; Hansen, Tobin

2012-11-01

This ethnographic study was conducted along the U.S.-Mexico border, the centre of the western hemispheric illicit drugs trade. It examines factors that encouraged or discouraged drug traffickers to "get out of the game" (a common slang reference to leaving the drug business). In-depth, life history interviews were conducted of thirty ex-traffickers in the El Paso/Ciudad Juárez area. Participants discussed their experiences exiting drug trafficking and their retrospective, often conflicted, feelings about the trade. Although leaving drug trafficking is a complex and multi-faceted process, the principle factors for study participants were (1) punishment (by authorities or other traffickers), (2) self-image and identity, (3) social ties, (4) life course changes and (5) drug use/abuse. Traffickers often want to quit, but their divided self-identities make it difficult to relinquish the power and exhilaration they derive from the illicit drugs business. Harm reduction policies are needed that address the embeddedness of trafficker identities in dense webs of family, community, street gangs and transnational cartels, and the larger society, as well as the seductive appeal of Hollywood and pro-cartel narco-media. Traffickers need pathways that allow them to exit the illicit drugs business without surrendering their identity. Prison sentences are not enough to encourage traffickers to stop-also needed are culturally sensitive policies that help traffickers get out of the game and stay out. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crisis Response Strategy and Crisis Types Suitability: A Preliminary Study on MH370

OpenAIRE

Mohamad Ashari Noratikah; Abang Ahmad Dayang Aizza Maisha; Samani Mus Chairil

2017-01-01

In time of crisis, the organisation’s tactic in responding to the crisis according to its type/s may significantly affect the organisation’s effort to survive its reputational damages. The study of crisis response strategy (CRS) requires further exploration within the Malaysian context, moreso with the greater and apparent use of social media as a platform for the organisation in crisis to reach out to its stakeholders. This preliminary paper studies the MH370 crisis in light of Coombs [1] Si...

THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

Ana POPA; Laura GIURCA VASILESCU

2009-01-01

This paper is based on a wide range of researches and statistics data, regarding the enormous stock real estate boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. First of all, many economists argue that this boom represents a speculative bubble, because it is not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Secondly, this boom must be placed it in the context of financial crisis starting in 2007. In fact, the global financial crisis has begun with the north-American subp...

Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

OpenAIRE

Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

2015-01-01

Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

The Global Financial Crisis and the Arab World

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brach, Juliane; Loewe, Markus

2010-01-01

Much has been written on the impact of the global financial crisis on Europe, Asia and the Americas but only little on the Arab states. This article makes an early attempt to take stock of recent developments in the Arab world and offers a systematic approach to disentangle the various inter......-linkages and effects of the crisis on the region. It argues that most Arab countries might be lucky and get off lightly, especially the energy-importing Arab countries which have proved not to be very vulnerable because they are only weakly integrated into global trade and capital markets. The energy exporters have...

The role of currency swaps in the domestic banking system and the functioning of the swap market during the crisis

OpenAIRE

Páles, Judit; Kuti, Zsolt; Csávás, Csaba

2011-01-01

The basic purpose of this study is to didactically demonstrate the factors shaping the currency swap stock of domestic banks prior to the crisis and to provide a descriptive analysis of how the structure and the functioning of the market changed during the crisis. The main conclusions of the study are as follows. In addition to the wide ranging applicability of the transaction, the rise in the currency swap stock of domestic credit institutions is also attributable to macroeconomic factors. T...

How does crisis affect efficiency? An empirical study of East Asian markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Aun R. Rizvi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Much research has been undertaken in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH over the preceding two decades. With Asian countries emerging as a global powerhouse in terms of regional economics, the interest in their stock markets has picked up recently. Asian markets traditionally comprised of many emerging markets are generally assumed to be more volatile and speculative in nature. Based on this crux, we focus specifically on the response of these markets efficiency to major crisis. In recent years, the Asian markets have experienced a phenomenal boom in attracting foreign capital inflow, with Singapore evolving into a global financial hub in terms of banking and financial services. Scepticism and cautious nature raises the question of whether these stock markets are efficient enough for further investment and development. Our study is unique in nature, as we focus on the efficiency of these market in response to crisis periods, comparing it with their pre-crisis period, both in shorter term of 1 year as well as longer term of 5 years post and pre crisis period. Taking Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea owing to their economic and financial development, we use MF-DFA to derive efficiency measure for comparative analysis with its own past. The findings put forth a notion of generally a deteriorating and negative impact of the Asian financial crisis, while the sub-prime crisis impact varies based on the economic structure of the economies. The findings concur with the mainstream literature and similar studies for other countries and region.

Refurbishment of Social housing: a survey of the building stock owned by ATC Torino

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Levra Levron

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The Italian public housing building stock is considerable, although quantitatively less than that of other European countries,. The public policies adopted in the last decades have pushed the supply of housing by the private sector and supported the sale of the assets by the public housing authorities. Those buildings are often degraded and obsolete. Nevertheless, the issue of redevelopment of this part of the residential building stock is a central focus, also because of its important social role, especially in the current period of crisis. One of the recurring factors in the Italian case is the low quality of this building stock due to the lack of an organic maintenance activity. The paper reports the first results of a research carried out by the Department of Architecture and Design in cooperation with a social housing public authority, the Regional Agency for the Central Piedmont House (ATC. The goal of the research was the development of methodologies for estimating and analysis of maintenance requirements. Moreover, the study suggests and develops a forecasting tool for the planning of maintenance operations and redevelopment of the large building estates.

Veterans Crisis Line: Videos About Reaching out for Help

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... facility near you. Spread the Word Download logos, Web ads, and materials and help get the word ... Veteran Suicide The Veterans Crisis Line text-messaging service does not store mobile phone numbers of users ...

Veterans Crisis Line: Videos About Reaching out for Help

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... videos from Veterans Health Administration Veterans Crisis Line -- After the Call see more videos from Veterans Health ... videos from Veterans Health Administration Talking About It Matters see more videos from Veterans Health Administration Stand ...

Veterans Crisis Line: Videos About Reaching out for Help

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... videos from Veterans Health Administration Talking About It Matters see more videos from Veterans Health Administration Stand ... Health Administration I am A Veteran Family/Friend Active Duty/Reserve and Guard Signs of Crisis Identifying ...

Crisis and Policy Reformcraft: Advocacy Coalitions and Crisis-induced Change in Swedish Nuclear Energy Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nohrstedt, Daniel

2007-04-15

This dissertation consists of three interrelated essays examining the role of crisis events in Swedish nuclear energy policymaking. The study takes stock of the idea of 'crisis exceptionalism' raised in the literature, which postulates that crisis events provide openings for major policy change. In an effort to explain crisis-induced outcomes in Swedish nuclear energy policy, each essay explores and develops theoretical assumptions derived from the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). The introduction discusses the ACF and other theoretical perspectives accentuating the role of crisis in policymaking and identifies three explanations for crisis-induced policy outcomes: minority coalition mobilization, learning, and strategic action. Essay 1 analyzes the nature and development of the Swedish nuclear energy subsystem. The results contradict the ACF assumption that corporatist systems nurture narrow subsystems and small advocacy coalitions, but corroborate the assumption that advocacy coalitions remain stable over time. While this analysis identifies temporary openings in policymaking venues and in the advocacy coalition structure, it is argued that these developments did not affect crisis policymaking. Essay 2 seeks to explain the decision to initiate a referendum on nuclear power following the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. Internal government documents and other historical records indicate that strategic considerations superseded learning as the primary explanation in this case. Essay 3 conducts an in-depth examination of Swedish policymaking in the aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl accident in an effort to explain the government's decision not to accelerate the nuclear power phaseout. Recently disclosed government documents show that minority coalition mobilization was insufficient to explain this decision. In this case, rational learning and strategic action provided a better explanation. The main theoretical contribution derived from the three

Crisis and Policy Reformcraft: Advocacy Coalitions and Crisis-induced Change in Swedish Nuclear Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohrstedt, Daniel

2007-04-01

This dissertation consists of three interrelated essays examining the role of crisis events in Swedish nuclear energy policymaking. The study takes stock of the idea of 'crisis exceptionalism' raised in the literature, which postulates that crisis events provide openings for major policy change. In an effort to explain crisis-induced outcomes in Swedish nuclear energy policy, each essay explores and develops theoretical assumptions derived from the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). The introduction discusses the ACF and other theoretical perspectives accentuating the role of crisis in policymaking and identifies three explanations for crisis-induced policy outcomes: minority coalition mobilization, learning, and strategic action. Essay 1 analyzes the nature and development of the Swedish nuclear energy subsystem. The results contradict the ACF assumption that corporatist systems nurture narrow subsystems and small advocacy coalitions, but corroborate the assumption that advocacy coalitions remain stable over time. While this analysis identifies temporary openings in policymaking venues and in the advocacy coalition structure, it is argued that these developments did not affect crisis policymaking. Essay 2 seeks to explain the decision to initiate a referendum on nuclear power following the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. Internal government documents and other historical records indicate that strategic considerations superseded learning as the primary explanation in this case. Essay 3 conducts an in-depth examination of Swedish policymaking in the aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl accident in an effort to explain the government's decision not to accelerate the nuclear power phaseout. Recently disclosed government documents show that minority coalition mobilization was insufficient to explain this decision. In this case, rational learning and strategic action provided a better explanation. The main theoretical contribution derived from the three essays is to posit

The US Stock Market Leads the Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Bond Yields

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

2011-01-01

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis. PMID:21857954

The US stock market leads the federal funds rate and treasury bond yields.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun Guo

Full Text Available Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method, we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y. In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i and (ii. First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.

The US stock market leads the federal funds rate and treasury bond yields.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

2011-01-01

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.

A Wavelet-based Discussion on the Greek Stock Market Integration During the Last Decade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boryana Bogdanova

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The current paper investigates how has been evolving the integration of the Greek stock market to the major world stock exchanges for a period spanning from the early 2000s till the middle of 2013. The idea of wavelet coherency is adopted in the analysis in order to identify linkages and co-movement patterns that are otherwise not that obvious. It is further investigated if the detected relationships are of short or of long-run character. Also particular attention is paid to the co-movement patterns during the period of the 2007-2009 financial crisis as well as during the period of the Eurozone debt crisis. In addition, conclusions on presence of contagion and transmission of crises are drawn.

The time-varying correlation between policy uncertainty and stock returns: Evidence from China

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Xiong; Bian, Yuxiang; Shen, Dehua

2018-06-01

In this paper, we use a new policy uncertainty index to investigate the time-varying correlation between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and Chinese stock market returns. The correlation is examined in the period from January 1995 to December 2016. We show that absolute changes in EPU have a significant impact on stock market returns. Specifically, empirical results based on the DCC-GARCH model reveal that the correlation between EPU and stock returns has large fluctuations, especially during a financial crisis; in addition, the impact of EPU on the Shanghai stock market is greater than on the Shenzhen stock market. Robustness results reveal that the impact of EPU on state-owned enterprises is larger than on non-state enterprises. All of these results highlight the important role of EPU in the Chinese stock market, and shed light on such issues for future research.

The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis on Public Sector Accounting: A Contextual Analysis

OpenAIRE

Emmanuel Igbawase Abanyam; Paul Aondona Angahar

2015-01-01

This paper examines the effect of global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis on public sector accounting. The global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis were contextually analysed bringing out clearly its effect on public sector accounting which include accounting issues related to public sector intervention, accounting for recapitalization of investment, accounting for fiscal support, accounting for financial guarantees. The paper found out that, the unresolved fiscal and d...

THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK RETURNS ON DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammed Monjurul Quadir

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables of treasury bill interest rate and industrial production on stock returns on Dhaka Stock Exchange for the period between January 2000 and February 2007 on the basis of monthly time series data using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The paper has taken the overall market stock returns as an independent variable. It does not consider the stock returns of different companies separately. Though the ARIMA model finds a positive relationship between Treasury bill interest rate and industrial production with market stock returns but the coefficients have turned out to be statistically insignificant.

Political Shocks and Abnormal Returns During the Taiwan Crisis: An Event Study Analysis

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Steeves, Geoffrey

2002-01-01

.... Focusing on the 1996 Taiwan Crisis, by means of event study analysis, this paper attempts to determine the extent to which this political shock affected the Taiwanese, and surrounding Japanese stock markets...

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baumöhl, E.; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, S.; Výrost, T.

2018-01-01

Roč. 490, č. 1 (2018), s. 1555-1574 ISSN 0378-4371 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Shock transmission * Stock markets * Granger causality network * Financial crisis * Spatial regression Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.243, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/E/kocenda-0487923.pdf

CRISIS-DIAGNOSTICS IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gavrylenko Valentina

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. In today’s conditions of a changing market environment, uncertainty and risk, one of the main tasks of management is the timely detection of crisis symptoms and the development of measures aimed at preventing their negative impact on the activities of the enterprise. The purpose of this article is to determine the accounting and analytical information for the development of the model KRIZІS-diagnostics and ensure the effectiveness of its functioning in anti-crisis management. Results. The analysis of definition of the concept «KRIZІS-diagnostics» in the scientific literature is carried out. Multi-factor models for assessing the financial status and the diagnostics of enterprises bankruptcy for different countries are presented. The specified classification of management KRIZІS-diagnostics is specified. The stages and tasks of KRIZІS-diagnostics are determined. The sources of information, which are determinants of the early symptoms of the crisis and necessary for KRIZІS-diagnostics are indicated and the characteristic is also given. Qualitative and quantitative indicators that characterize the business processes of the enterprise and can be used to analyze the state of the enterprise in a changing environment for preventing the crisis are determined. Conclusions. This approach of identifying crisis symptoms in business processes is the basis for managing an enterprise to make strategic management decisions in order to prevent a crisis at its early stages. The development of KRIZІS-diagnostics as an information provision for anti-crisis management is the direction of further research.

Parametric and nonparametric Granger causality testing: Linkages between international stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

De Gooijer, Jan G.; Sivarajasingham, Selliah

2008-04-01

This study investigates long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among eleven stock markets, six industrialized markets and five emerging markets of South-East Asia. We cover the period 1987-2006, taking into account the on-set of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We first apply a test for the presence of general nonlinearity in vector time series. Substantial differences exist between the pre- and post-crisis period in terms of the total number of significant nonlinear relationships. We then examine both periods, using a new nonparametric test for Granger noncausality and the conventional parametric Granger noncausality test. One major finding is that the Asian stock markets have become more internationally integrated after the Asian financial crisis. An exception is the Sri Lankan market with almost no significant long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages with other markets. To ensure that any causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VAR filtered residuals and VAR filtered squared residuals for the post-crisis sample. We find quite a few remaining significant bi- and uni-directional causal nonlinear relationships in these series. Finally, after filtering the VAR-residuals with GARCH-BEKK models, we show that the nonparametric test statistics are substantially smaller in both magnitude and statistical significance than those before filtering. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects.

Measurement of Stock Market Liquidity Supported By an Algorithm Inferring the Initiator of a Trade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joanna Olbryś

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess and analyse selected liquidity/illiquidity measures derived from high-frequency intraday data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE. As the side initiating a trade cannot be directly identified from a raw data set, firstly the Lee-Ready algorithm for inferring the initiator of a trade is employed to distinguish between so-called buyer- and seller-initiated trades. Intraday data for fifty-three WSE-listed companies divided into three size groups cover the period from January 3, 2005 to June 30, 2015. The paper provides an analysis of the robustness of the obtained results with respect to the whole sample and three consecutive subsamples, each of equal size: covering the precrisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. The empirical results turn out to be robust to the choice of the period. Furthermore, hypotheses concerning the statistical significance of coefficients of correlation between the daily values of three liquidity proxies used in the study are tested. (original abstract

Evaluating multidisciplinary health care teams: taking the crisis out of CRM.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Gigi

2009-08-01

High-reliability organisations are those, such as within the aviation industry, which operate in complex, hazardous environments and yet despite this are able to balance safety and effectiveness. Crew resource management (CRM) training is used to improve the non-technical skills of aviation crews and other high-reliability teams. To date, CRM within the health sector has been restricted to use with "crisis teams" and "crisis events". The purpose of this discussion paper is to examine the application of CRM to acute, ward-based multidisciplinary health care teams and more broadly to argue for the repositioning of health-based CRM to address effective everyday function, of which "crisis events" form just one part. It is argued that CRM methodology could be applied to evaluate ward-based health care teams and design non-technical skills training to increase their efficacy, promote better patient outcomes, and facilitate a range of positive personal and organisational level outcomes.

Kesterson crisis: Sorting out the facts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benson, S.M.; Delamore, M.; Hoffman, S.

1990-07-01

The Kesterson Reservoir was planned as a regulating facility to control drainage water discharges into the San Joaquin-Scaramento River Delta from the ''San Luis Drain'' which was to dispose of salt-ladin agricultural water. Anticipated environmental impacts of the Kesterson operations focused almost exclusively on problems related to seepage and water-logging of nearby lands. Reuse of drainage water for wetlands focused on excessive salinity. Drainage water entered the reservoir in 1978. By 1983 elevated levels of selenium were found with selenium poisoning causing deformed embryos of water birds, adult bird mortality and their poor reproductive success. An estimated 9000 kg of selenium was delivered to Kesterson between 1981 to 1986. This paper details the chronology of the Kesterson crisis and environmental remediation. 20 refs., 1 fig

THE GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS FOR THE FIVE ASEAN COUNTRIES STOCK MARKETS AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES DURING AND POST THE 1997 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adwin Surja Atmadja

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to examine the existence of Granger-causality among stock prices indices and macroeconomic variables in five ASEAN countries, Indonesia; Malaysia; the Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand with particular attention to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and period onwards. Using monthly time series data of the countries, a Granger-causality test based on the vector autoregressive (VAR analytical framework was employed to empirically reveal the causality among the variables. This research finds that there were few Granger causalities found between the country's wtock price index and macroeconomic variables. This indicates that the linkages between domestic stock price movements and macroeconomic factors were very. Due to that, the ASEAN stock markets were crelatively unable to efficiently capture changes in economic fundamentals during the observation period in most of the countries in accordance to the literature in emerging stock markets, and that the influence of specific macroeconomic factors on the domestic economies differ across countries. This also implies that the stock markets do not seem to have played a significant role in most countries' economies, and macroeconomic variables are unlikely to be appropriate indicators to predict not only the future behaviour of other macroeconomic variables, but also that of the stock market price indices. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Makalah ini mencoba untuk menganalisis keberadaan Granger-causality antara indeks harga saham dan variabel-variabel ekonomi makro di lima negara ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia; Malaysia; Filipina; Singapore; dan Thailand yang berfokus pada periode terjadinya krisis keuangan Asia pada tahun 1997 dan sesudahnya. Dengan mempergunakan data time series bulanan dari setiap negara tersebut, tes Granger-causality yang didasarkan pada kerangka analisa VAR (vector autoregressive diaplikasikan untuk mengungkap secara empiris hubungan kausal antar variabel. Dari hasil tes

The impact of the originate-to-distribute model on banks before and during the financial crisis

OpenAIRE

Richard J. Rosen

2010-01-01

The growth of securitization made it easier for banks to sell home mortgage loans that they originated. I explore how mortgage sales affected banks in the years leading up to the financial crisis that began in 2007 and how their pre-crisis mortgage sales affected banks during the crisis. Loan sales are important because most banks sell mortgages as part of the securitization process, but few actually do the securitization. I find that stock returns increase when banks increase sales of mortga...

Initial Public Offering – Finance Source of Stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sorin Claudiu Radu

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Capital market offers a wide range of options for financing companies, which can be tailored to meet their exact needs. Thus, they have the opportunity of primary security sale (shares and bonds on the stock exchange, which may take place through a tender, in which case the financial instruments issued by a company are underwritten at the date of issue, or through a secondary offer, in which case they are issued and offered for sale by the issuer. If the public sale offer focuses on shares and aims at transforming the issuing company into a public one, then it bears the name of IPO (Initial Public Offering. The present work aims for the evolution of IPO trends on the European market in the aftermath of the global crisis outbreak. The market of IPO carried out by BSE is also analyzed herewith.

MUTUAL FUND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS PRE AND POST FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008

OpenAIRE

Asadov, Elvin; Dinger, Tim

2017-01-01

Using a sample of 955 mutual funds, free of survivorship bias, we analyse the performance of diversified equity mutual funds in the United States of America that invest solely in stocks listed on the U.S. stock exchanges before and after the financial crisis of 2008. We categorize all mutual funds into their respective strategy including value, growth, and blend in order to see any relationship with respect to their strategic focus.We find that mutual funds were not able to provide a positive...

Nuclear management during crisis: a study through representations of crisis managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suchet, Romain

2015-01-01

This thesis is the result of almost 4 years of research carried out within the IRSN, one of the actors among the different actors in charge of nuclear crisis response. We started with the following question: how France gets prepared to manage a nuclear accident situation and what are the results of this preparation in a real accident case even if it is a minor accident or if it happens abroad? Thanks to a very fruitful documentary and in field research work, we are able to show in this thesis that the unilateral management of a 'crisis' situation by the different actors organized under the leadership of high level engineers from the 'Corps de mines', results in a very technical definition of the 'crisis' focused on the technical aspects while disregarding the general public. As a consequence, emergency drills that are defined and carried out do not prepare intervention teams to manage social reactions that may be caused by a nuclear accident. To the opposite and paradoxically, such a vision that neglects the reaction of the population may generate by itself a crisis situation even when an accident is deemed to be 'technically' of a minor importance. However the management system of nuclear crisis is evolving. Organizational changes in this area that progressively take into account the social factor, really result from the in field experience of dealing with the general public reactions during a real nuclear crisis. Crisis training and drills have a lesser impact on this evolution. (author)

An international integration history of the Zagreb Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luka Sikic

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We investigate stock market co-movements among the Croatian and several other markets (in the US, UK, Germany, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary in the period from 3 September 1997 to 19 August 2016 with dynamic correlation coefficient models. This allows us to analyse long-term trends of the international financial integration of the Zagreb Stock Exchange in the last two decades as well as the separate impacts of major events that influenced financial markets during that period. Our results imply a relatively low level of international financial integration of the Croatian stock market, but some convergence in co-movement with the analysed markets over time is present. The strongest market co-movement is related to the subprime mortgage crisis, and EU accession seems to have made Croatian international integration less segmented.

Stock Markets Volatility Spillovers during Financial Crises : A DCC-MGARCH with Skew-t Approach

OpenAIRE

Bala, Dahiru A.; Takimoto, Taro

2016-01-01

We investigate stock markets volatility spillovers in selected emerging and major developed markets using multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models [namely; DVECH, CCC-MGARCH, CCC-VARMA-(A)MGARCH, VAR-EGARCH, BEKK-(A)MGARCH, DCC-MGARCH (with Gaussian and t distributions) and DCC-with-skew-t density]. The paper analyses the impacts of recent global financial crisis (2007{2009) on stock market volatility and examines their dynamic interactions using several MGARCH model variants. Structural break dete...

El impacto de la crisis en la manipulación contable

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Ignacio Jarne Jarne

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Basándonos en los grupos cotizados en el mercado español, el presente trabajo aporta evidencia empírica sobre el impacto de la crisis en las prácticas de earnings management.Utilizamos los ajustes por devengo discrecionales como medida de manipulación. Los resultados obtenidos constatan que la calidad de la información financiera se ve afectada en periodos de crisis, ya que ponen de manifiesto que la manipulación al alza del resultado vía ajustes por devengo discrecionales se ha visto incrementada ante las dificultades económicas y financieras. Esto es debido no a la crisis en sí misma, sino a que la crisis ha reforzado la importancia de algunos incentivos para manipular, como es el endeudamiento.The study analyses the impact of the crisis on the earnings management by listed companies on Spanish stock market. We use discretionary accruals as a measure of earnings management. The results show that earnings-increasing discretionary accruals have increased during the crisis, confirming that crisis periods affect to financial reporting quality. This is not due to crisis as such, but the crisis has strengthened some incentives to manage earnings, such us the indebtedness.

Dalla crisi finanziaria alla crisi reale. ( Financial and real crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlo D'Adda

2010-03-01

Full Text Available  The financial crisis of 2008 is put in relation with two bubbles, financial and housing. Easy credit is at the origin of both bubbles. Risky bonds were issued to mobilize mortgages originated in the housing market, and bad bonds entered a fantastic number of institutional and private portfolios all over the world without any perception of the their risk. Unfortunately, bank credit to speculators was abundant and fed the final growth of the bubbles. When fears started to spread, the fall was immediate and expectations impaired very rapidly. The main aggregate demand components were severely curtailed and production fell as well. This is the crisis of the real economy. Fortunately, as opposed to what happened in 1929, the interventions of central banks and governments have been of an unprecedented size. The bail out of insolvent banks in particular has been providential. The exit from the current crisis, however, will surely be slow.  JEL: E44, G01, G10

Commercial speech in crisis: Crisis Pregnancy Center regulations and definitions of commercial speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Kathryn E

2013-02-01

Recent attempts to regulate Crisis Pregnancy Centers, pseudoclinics that surreptitiously aim to dissuade pregnant women from choosing abortion, have confronted the thorny problem of how to define commercial speech. The Supreme Court has offered three potential answers to this definitional quandary. This Note uses the Crisis Pregnancy Center cases to demonstrate that courts should use one of these solutions, the factor-based approach of Bolger v. Youngs Drugs Products Corp., to define commercial speech in the Crisis Pregnancy Center cases and elsewhere. In principle and in application, the Bolger factor-based approach succeeds in structuring commercial speech analysis at the margins of the doctrine.

Quantifying extreme risks in stock markets: A case of former Yugoslavian states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša Žiković

2008-06-01

Full Text Available One of the reasons why investors were not prepared for heavy losses in the stock markets that occurred after the beginning of sub prime mortgage crisis in the US lies in the curious fact that many practitioners were led to believe that there are so many independent agents participating in the stock markets that surely they must act according to Central limit theorem i.e. according to Gaussian distribution. As it turns out the paradigm of normality has let us down once again and reputation of VaR based risk measurement is seriously damaged. An alternative measure that looks very strong at these dire times and quantifi es the losses that might be encountered in the tail is the conditional VaR (CVaR. While VaR represents a loss one expects at a determined confi dence level for a given holding period, CVaR is the loss one expects, provided that the loss is equal to or greater than VaR. In this paper the testing of CVaR models is performed on stock indexes from Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia. Error statistics show that CVaR models are quite successful at capturing extreme losses that occurred in these markets, especially models based on Generalized extreme value distribution and a proposed Hybrid historical simulation CVaR model.

Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness

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Dilip Kumar

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paper investigates the first and second orders moment transmission between gold and Indian industrial sectors with an application of portfolio design and hedging effectiveness using generalised VAR-ADCC-BVGARCH model. Our findings indicate unidirectional significant return spillover from gold to stock sectors. The negative values of estimated time varying conditional correlations are mainly observed during periods of market turbulence and crisis indicating the scope of portfolio diversification and hedging during these periods. We also estimate optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the stock-gold portfolios. Our findings suggest that stock-gold portfolio provides better diversification benefits than stock portfolios.

East-European stock exchanges in the context of financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cătălina Claudia SAVA

2013-02-01

Full Text Available For the capital market, the crisis means, first of all, the decrease of the financial instruments quotations and of the trading volumes. These had occurred in conjunction with the modified investor’s behaviour, which radically changes their investment options, withdrawing the money invested in the market in favour of investing in the banking deposits, art objects and precious metals.

What Perspectives for Crisis Resolution? Getting Out of the Iranian Crisis Peacefully

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gere, Francois

2008-01-01

In February 2006, the International Atomic Energy Agency sent the Iranian case to the United Nations Security Council. However, Iran refused to stop its nuclear program. The international community has tried to elaborate a strategy to resolve the crisis, in order to avoid the 'bomb' or the 'bombardment.' France has moved closer to the Bush administration position, favoring diplomacy with sanctions. The situation remains extremely tense. Indeed, since February 2007, military tensions developed between American air and naval forces and the Iranian army in charge of coastal defense. Appeasement can only come through dialogue. But dialogue has not been initiated and Iranian diplomacy has only hardened over two years

COMPANY SIZE, TRADING ACTIVITY AND LIQUIDITY AS A DETERMINANTS OF CROSS-SECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRADING STRATEGY ON RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teplova T. V.

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Momentum-effect has many interpretations in the practice of investing and in understanding of anomalies in asset prices. We consider a Cross-Sectional momentum effects and the corresponding two medium-term (3 months or more trading strategies that are different from the trend following rules for individual assets. We tested four hypothesis deals with cross-sectional momentum effect on the Russian stock market and the possibility of building a self-financing (long-short trading strategy at three time horizon (stock market growth from 2004 until mid 2008, financial crisis and post-crisis periods. It is shown that for the Russian market cross-sectional momentum strategy with partly rebalanced portfolio maximizing portfolio return (134 stocks listed from 2004 to 2014 in the few Russian stock exchanges should be based on the three-month formation period and three-month holding period periods (3/1/3. We have identified elements of profit-maximizing momentum strategy: three time windows and determinants of assets. Monthly average return of arbitrage strategy is estimated at 1.5 % for 134 common shares. Implementation of the strategy for the post-crisis period does not allow to maximize profit. For 6-month and more investment windows it gets the advantage of reverse strategy (opening long positions in stocks with low investment results and short position for assets with high relative returns. Fundamental parameters of the issuer (size of companies like market capitalization and two measures of liquidity (trading activity and transaction costs like bid-ask spread are significant to maximize portfolio performance (we prove the growth of monthly average return ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 %. We find that size and liquidity control momentum strategy can earn positive profits in Russian stock market, larger than naïve momentum.

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS 2008 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES FOR RUSSIAN MACROPRUDENTIAL REGULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Егор Николаевич Поляков

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This article analyzes the impact of volatility in global financial markets on the economy of developing countries and the analysis of factors contributing to a greater or lesser degree of vulnerability of the financial systems of developing countries in the global crisis of 2008-2010. Particular attention is paid to the influence of the global financial crisis on the economies of the two groups of developing countries of Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. On the basis of the analysis due to the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation during the acute phase of the crisis. The author presents an analysis of the vulnerability of the Russian economy in the event of possible instability in global financial markets at present. The author came to the conclusion that the main reason for which in 2009 the level of GDP growth Russia won 178 seats out of 184 countries, were 2 groups of errors. The first group of errors - errors are system of macro-prudential regulation made by the Central Bank from 2002 to 2007, such as: lack of control and regulation of borrowings of the private and banking sectors to foreign markets, as well as in the domestic market in foreign currency, the loss of control over domestic financial markets, such as: the interbank lending market, the stock market. The second group of errors - errors it committed securities during the crisis. The first error of the Central Bank - a rejection Vat refinance foreign debt of non-financial sector, resulting in an acute liquidity crisis. The second error is stretched for a few months, not a one-time devaluation of the ruble. Price of the second error was 200 billion USD, which the Central Bank lost and speculators earned.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-9-4

Out-patient drug policy by clinical assessment rather than financial constraints? The gate-keeping function of the out-patient drug reimbursement system in The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pronk, Marja H.; Bonsel, Gouke J.

2004-01-01

Since 1991, the Dutch Price Reference System (DPRS) has aimed at a growth reduction of out-patient drug costs without loss of medical quality. New drugs are excluded unless they pass legally anchored clinical criteria, i.e. substitutability with accepted drugs (DPRS-list 1a, implies a reimbursement

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND UNIT-LINKED INSURANCE MARKETS EFFICIENCY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Botoş Horia Mircea

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of the Global financial crisis on the efficiency of four Central and Eastern European emerging unit-linked insurance markets, applying the automatic variance ratio (AVR test of Kim (2009 and variance ratio tests using ranks and signs by Wright (2000 for entire, pre-crisis and crisis periods. This study contributes to the existing literature on efficient market hypothesis with several distinct features: it provides a systematic review of the weak-form market efficiency literature that examines return predictability of the daily ING unit-linked funds prices; also the article aims at monitoring any improvement in the degree of efficiency in time and also examines the relative efficiency of unit-linked insurance markets in pre-crisis and crisis periods. Unit linked insurance are life insurance policies with investment component. In the literature there are few studies investigating the effects of a financial crisis on the potential of predictability and implicitly on the degree of efficiency of financial markets. The occurrence of a market crash or financial crisis is a possible contributing factor of market inefficiency. Most of the studies are focused on the Asian crisis in 1997: Holden et al. (2005 examined the weak-form efficiency of eight emerging Asian stock markets using VR tests before, during and after the Asian crisis; Kim and Shamsuddin (2008 used three different types of multiple VR tests for nine Asian stock markets; the findings reported by Lim et al. (2008 are consistent with those reported by Cheong et al. (2007, in which the highest inefficiency occurs during the crisis period. Todea and Lazar (2010 investigated the effects of the Global crisis on the relative efficiency of ten CEE stock markets, using Generalized Spectral test of Escanciano and Velasco (2006. Wright (2000 proposes the alternative non-parametric variance ratio tests using ranks and signs of return and demonstrates that

From oil crisis to climate crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langseth, Bjarne

2000-01-01

The oil crisis in the 1970s led to the shift from oil to hydro- and nuclear power. An almost similar shift might soon come as a ''climate crisis''. A climate crisis may imply a renaissance for hydropower and nuclear power and natural gas will be used on a large scale. In Europe, natural gas is currently considered environmentally friendly. Although there is at present growing opposition to nuclear power in Sweden and Germany, this attitude may change as the result of increased focus on the costs of the alternatives. A forced phase-out of nuclear power in Europe simultaneously with a climate crisis with reduced energy production from fossil fuels is likely to entail significantly increased prices of electricity. In Norway, 98% of the country's electric power production is based on hydro power, which means that much more heating can be based on electricity than in countries in which electricity is produced by combustion of fossil fuels. Much research is in progress to find technologies that will make it possible to shift from fossil fuel energy to energy from renewable sources like solar, water, wind, biomass and geothermal energy

Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

2012-06-01

An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

The risks of nation branding as crisis response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Rasmus Kjærgaard; Merkelsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

alternative strategies for handling crises based on 'societal models'. Through a case study of Denmark's so-called Cartoon Crisis we demonstrate how crisis communication falls short of coping aptly with the complexity of the crisis due to the branding-inspired translation from 'sudden' to 'ongoing' crisis. We......In this article, we investigate the limitations of organization-centric models for crisis communication in handling place crises. Two distinct types of place crisis are identified as what we respectively term the 'sudden' and the 'ongoing' type. We point out that place branding traditionally has...... been used to handle the latter type. We then demonstrate how the inspiration from corporate communication in place branding has led to a fixation on reputation, which becomes salient when place branding is used as crisis communication in sudden crisis. Here the corporate inspiration tends to rule out...

Factors Influencing the Profitability of Listed Indonesian Commercial Banks Before and During Financial Global Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Menur Agustini

2012-01-01

Full Text Available  As a country with bank-based economy, stability and soundness of its banking industry are cru-cial matters for Indonesia especially in dealing with the crisis period, such as financial global crisis which occurred in 2008. Considering the crucial impact of the crisis, this study aims to examine de-terminants of bank profitability (as the measurement of stability and soundness of banking industry before and during the crisis period. Using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM, this study analyzes the profitability of listed commercial banks using unbalanced panel data over the period of 2002-2009. To investigate the impact of recent financial global crisis, this study uses time dummy variable to separate the pre-crisis period (2002-2006 and during the crisis period (2007-2009. Findings of this study show that in the pre-crisis period, bank-specific factors i.e. lagged profitability, bank size, bank capitalization, and diversification and external factors which are inflation and stock market-based financial development statistically and significantly affect bank's profitability. Further-more, the crisis is proven to have significant impact on the effect of inflation and stock market-based financial development toward bank profitability. Whereas, through the general model which is not separate the pre and during crisis periods, this study shows that bank-specific factors such as lagged profitability, bank size, and bank capitalization are proven to have significant effects on bank profit-ability while external factors that also have effects are bank-based financial development and bank concentration. ";} // -->activate javascript

What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martin, Ian; Wagner, Christian

We derive a formula that expresses the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock's excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These components can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters....... We test the theory in-sample by running panel regressions of stock returns onto risk-neutral variances. The formula performs well at 6-month and 1-year forecasting horizons, and our predictors drive out beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Out-of-sample, we find that the formula outperforms...... a range of competitors in forecasting individual stock returns. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, both over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged....

Crisis Response Strategy and Crisis Types Suitability: A Preliminary Study on MH370

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Ashari Noratikah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In time of crisis, the organisation’s tactic in responding to the crisis according to its type/s may significantly affect the organisation’s effort to survive its reputational damages. The study of crisis response strategy (CRS requires further exploration within the Malaysian context, moreso with the greater and apparent use of social media as a platform for the organisation in crisis to reach out to its stakeholders. This preliminary paper studies the MH370 crisis in light of Coombs [1] Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT. It aims to discuss the suitability of the CRS applied by Malaysia Airlines System (MAS with the crisis type/s that was/were experienced by the organisation. Hence, the need for this paper to investigate the crisis type/s of MH370 and examines the CRS applied by MAS by content analysing media statements that were disseminated directly to the organisation’s stakeholders on Facebook during the first day of the crisis. Results ultimately show an interesting analysis to the crisis type of MH370, and the suitability of the CRS applied by MAS for that matter.

THE 2000-2001 FINANCIAL CRISIS IN TURKEY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS OF 2008-2009: REASONS AND COMPARISONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilek TEMİZ

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The economic crisis of 2000-2001 was proved to be demolishing for Turkey after the abundance of currency peg in the same year. The crisis in question stemmed from insufficient implementation of regulations, inadequate depth of the capital markets, lack of assessment of risk, excessive lending to incorporated institutions by national banks, restricted interest rates, monitored foreign exchange operations, limited foreign asset holding, lack of competition, barriers to foreign entry high liquidity, chronic inflation and a deficit in balance of payments. However, the crisis that Turkey was subject to in 2008-2009 was quite different than the previous ones as to be a result of world matters. The sparking effect begun in the USA at the mortgage market, the fail of the mortgage market negatively influenced the capital, stock and derivative markets and spread the world. Thus, this study aims to analyze and reveal the reflections of the 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 crises and their comparison with regards to Turkey on theoretical basis resting on numerous comprehensive and credible national and international publications.

Dalla crisi finanziaria alla crisi reale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CARLO D’ADDA

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The financial crisis of 2008 is put in relation with two bubbles, financial and housing. Easy credit is at the origin of both bubbles. Risky bonds were issued to mobilize mortgages originated in the housing market, and bad bonds entered a fantastic number of institutional and private portfolios all over the world without any perception of the their risk. Unfortunately, bank credit to speculators was abundant and fed the final growth of the bubbles. When fears started to spread, the fall was immediate and expectations impaired very rapidly. The main aggregate demand components were severely curtailed and production fell as well. This is the crisis of the real economy. Fortunately, as opposed to what happened in 1929, the interventions of central banks and governments have been of an unprecedented size. The bail out of insolvent banks in particular has been providential. The exit from the current crisis, however, will surely be slow.

Contagion effects of the global financial crisis in us and European real economy sectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenourgios Dimitris

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the contagion effects of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009 from the financial sector to the real economy by examining nine sectors of US and developed European region. We provide a regional analysis by testing stock market contagion on the aggregate level and the sector level, on the global level and the domestic/regional level. Results show evidence of global contagion in US and developed European aggregate stock market indices and all US sector indices, implying the limited benefits of portfolio diversification. On the other hand, most of the European regional sectors seem to be immune to the adverse effects of the crisis. Finally, all non-financial sectors of both geographical areas seem to be unaffected by their domestic financial systems. These findings have important implications for policy makers, investors and international organizations.

An empirical study of real estate stock return behavior on the Nordic markets : – A 2003-2013 study

OpenAIRE

Mäki, David; Lundström, Martin

2013-01-01

The financial crisis has made the stock markets a very turbulent place. Investors have therefore begun searching for stable and profitable investments. Nordic real estate has for decades steadily increased in value and the stocks of real estate companies are said to be less risky than the market. This has led to a view of them being a safe haven for risk adverse investors. Very few empirical studies have been done on how these supposedly safe stocks actually behave in the Nordic countries. Th...

Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: an Econometric Investigation of Non-macro Factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A. Zopiatis (Anastasios); C.S. Savva (Christos); N. Lambertides (Neophytos); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2016-01-01

textabstractFollowing the recent terrorist attacks in Paris, the European media emphatically pronounced that billions of euros were wiped from tourism related stocks. This comes at a troublesome time for the tourism industry, in the midst of a global financial crisis, and the unpredictable rise of

The Australian stock market development: Prospects and challenges

OpenAIRE

Sheilla Nyasha; Nicholas M. Odhiambo

2013-01-01

This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these r...

Effects of Synchronisation of Dynamics of Stock Indices and Currency Rates during Multifactor Analysis with the Use of Wavelet Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kravets Tetyana V.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The article conducts analysis of behaviour of stock indices and currency rates before and after the crisis phenomena with the aim of detection of key features of the pre-crisis state, localisation and description of crisis effects by time and scale using methods of multifractal analysis and wavelet transformation. The article checks the method of allocation of intervals of self-similar behaviour of financial series in practice. For Dow Jones and Sand P 500 indices the article detects in the time interval of 2001 – 2013 fractality spans and also moments of time when behaviour of series was determined with the chaotic component. The article offers the measure of synchronous behaviour of stock indices and currency rates, value of which allows assessment of the degree of propagation of crisis phenomena and forecasting them. This measure is calculated for EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, FTSE 100, S and P 500, Dow Jones, DAX and CAC 40 series. The article observes a close connection between values of the introduced measure and volume of crisis phenomena, which took place in relevant period of time. It gives a characteristics of main economic crises for the period 2001 – 2003 with the aim of comparison of real events and specific features of dynamics of the measure of synchronisation as a precursor of crisis phenomena.

Functioning of the IPSN Crisis Technical Center (CTC) inside the Crisis National Organisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cernes, A.

1995-01-01

A forethought about the organization and counter-actions to follow in case of reactor accident crisis has been carried out by the French nuclear partners (operators and public authorities). This forethought has led to the creation of a Crisis National Organization which determines the responsibilities and missions of each partner. Inside this organization, the IPSN (Institute for Nuclear Protection and Safety) plays the role of technical support and expert for the Safety Authority. To carry out these missions, a Crisis Technical Center has been installed for ten years in Fontenay-aux-Roses CEA center. This document is a presentation of the CTC activities and evolutions in the framework of the existing National Organization. The main axes along which this activity will evolve in the future are summarized. (J.S.). 3 figs

What is the Expected Return on a Stock?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martin, Ian; Wagner, Christian

We derive a formula that expresses the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock’s excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These components can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters....... We test the theory in-sample by running panel regressions of stock returns onto risk-neutral variances. The formula performs well at 6-month and 1-year forecasting horizons, and our predictors drive out beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Out-of-sample, we find that the formula outperforms...... a range of competitors in forecasting individual stock returns. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, both over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged....

Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boons, M.F.

2014-01-01

The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with these

COMPANY SIZE, TRADING ACTIVITY AND LIQUIDITY AS A DETERMINANTS OF CROSS-SECTIONAL MOMENTUM TRADING STRATEGY ON RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET. PART 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teplova T. V.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Momentum-effect has many interpretations in the practice of investing and in understanding of anomalies in asset prices. We consider a Cross-Sectional momentum effects and the corresponding two medium-term (3 months or more trading strategies that are different from the trend following rules for individual assets. We tested four hypothesis deals with cross-sectional momentum effect on the Russian stock market and the possibility of building a self-financing (long-short trading strategy at three time horizon (stock market growth from 2004 until mid-2008, financial crisis and post-crisis periods. It is shown that for the Russian market cross-sectional momentum strategy with partly rebalanced portfolio maximizing portfolio return (134 stocks listed from 2004 to 2014 in the few Russian stock exchanges should be based on the three-month formation period and three-month holding period periods (3/1/3. We have identified elements of profit-maximizing momentum strategy: three time windows and determinants of assets. Monthly average return of arbitrage strategy is estimated at 1.5 % for 134 common shares. Implementation of the strategy for the post-crisis period does not allow to maximize profit. For 6 month and more investment windows it gets the advantage of reverse strategy (opening long positions in stocks with low investment results and short position for assets with high relative returns. Fundamental parameters of the issuer (size of companies like market capitalization and two measures of liquidity (trading activity and transaction costs like bid-ask spread are significant to maximize portfolio performance (we prove the growth of monthly average return ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 %. We find that size and liquidity control momentum strategy can earn positive profits in Russian stock market, larger than naïve momentum.

P-glycoprotein interaction with risperidone and 9-OH-risperidone studied in vitro, in knock-out mice and in drug-drug interaction experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ejsing, Thomas B.; Pedersen, Anne D.; Linnet, Kristian

2005-01-01

P-glycoprotein, risperidone, nortriptyline, cyclosporine A, drug-drug interaction, blood-brain barrier, knock-out mice......P-glycoprotein, risperidone, nortriptyline, cyclosporine A, drug-drug interaction, blood-brain barrier, knock-out mice...

Causes and Results of the Greek Debt Crisis: An Analysis with Artificial Neural Networks

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Armağan TÜRK

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Starting in the United States in July 2007 as a subprime mortgage crisis, the financial crisis has become global in 2009 after spreading to Eurozone member countries, particularly Greece. In the 1950s, Greece was the poorest country among the EU-15 countries, while it has become a middle-income country among the EU-27 countries in the 2000s. Greece had three important breakpoints during this period. From the 1950s until the late 1970s, Greece was tested by the oil shocks like the rest of the world, but it was one of the best performers in the OECD and the best one in Europe in terms of economic growth rate. This strong growth came to an end in 1981 and low and negative growth rates continued until 1990. As a result of strong efforts in the 1990-93 periods, significant growth rates restarted in 1995. However, the government that came to power following the 2004 election, opposed to reforms implemented between 1990 and 1993 and public spending radically increased from this date. The deterioration of public finances that led to unsustainable high budget deficits and public debt stocks increased the vulnerability of the Greek economy to external shocks. This constitutes the main reason behind the financial crisis that broke out in 2009 in Greece. This study aims to empirically analyze the causes and consequences of the Greek debt crisis. The econometric approach used in this study is "artificial neural networks". According to estimation results, the basic determinants of the Greek crisis are high budget deficits, increasing public sector debt, insufficient per capita savings rates, and low economic growth.

The Czech labour market after the crisis of a real economy: negative development or return to steady-state?

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Pavel Tuleja

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the Czech economy before, during and after the economic crisis. Consequences on the labour market, respectively on unemployment are also discussed in the paper. According to most economists the cause of the economic crisis was the financial crisis which was triggered by a liquidity shortfall in the United States banking system. It has resulted in the collapse of large financial institutions, the “bail out” of banks by national governments and downturns in stock markets around the world. Real gross domestic product decreased in almost all EU countries including the Czech economy. Massive drop of gross domestic product led to increase in the unemployment rate. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to discussion about consequences of this crisis. The paper provides also an analysis of gross domestic product and its components. The empirical analysis also tried to answer the question if it is more a return to steady–state than the deterioration of economic performance in the case of the Czech economy. In other words, it means that economic performance of the Czech economy was above the level of potential output. Research in this study is based on basic macroeconomic quarterly data between the years 2000 and 2010 which were published by the Czech Statistical Office and Eurostat. We found out that the Czech labour market had to cope with the consequences of the economic crisis and now it is going to reach a long-term equilibrium.

STUDY ON FINANCIAL COMMUNICATIONS FROM PUBLIC RETAIL COMPANIES: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS – MILANO STOCK EXCHANGE AND BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

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Veronica R GROSU

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The economic and financial crisis that hit the world economy has shown that for retail companies, growth continued to record only for those who held full control over every point of sale. The objective of our work is focused on the analysis of the most important financial indicators that a retail company should focus on and include in communication with external stakeholders. We make the connection with problems of the real economy through a comparative study of Romania and Italy, in which we analyze retail companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE and a similar number of retail companies listed on the Milan Stock Exchange (MSE. The importance of the topic stems from the fact that it is essential for understanding how consumers relate the various retail companies and how the latter model their structure or behavior depending on the requirements and needs of the former.

From Subprime and Eurozone Crisis with Full Speed into the Next Financial Crisis

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Strašek Sebastjan

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper offers an analysis of the road from subprime and eurozone crisis to the elements of a new systemic crisis. Our aim is to research common issues that accompany each of these crises and to explore elements that hint that the financial systems are moving toward a new crisis. By holding short-term interest rates near zero, the central banks have encouraged malinvestment and speculation. Fuelling the bubble is the fear of missing out on trade. We find that actual events and movements on security markets follow a typical pattern, which indicates a serious threat for the next financial crisis. We also find enough signs that old crises lessons haven’t been learned.

Company Stock in Pension Funds

OpenAIRE

Even, William E.; Macpherson, David

2004-01-01

This study examines several issues surrounding the tendency for some pension funds to invest in their own company’s stock. After reviewing the existing literature describing the benefits and costs of investing in company stock, the legislative environment surrounding company stock holdings is reviewed. Using data from Internal Revenue Service Form 5500 filings on the pension fund holdings of over 300,000 defined–contribution pension plans in the 1990s, we show that about one out of ten define...

Financial Crisis from the Trust and Loss Aversion Perspective in Emerging Romanian Capital Market

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Antoniade-Ciprian ALEXANDRU

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper we synthesized a study of financial crisis from the trust and loss aversion perspective on a particular case, Romanian emerging capital market. In a relative recent study we stopped with our data series at the level of 2008, November, but in this paper we continue our research until 2009, December. In a world-wide financial crisis and a global financial depreciation of stocks the emergent markets are much more affected that the lack of money and investors aversion. We study, based on efficient market theory, the evolution of portfolio structure in balanced funds. We are interesting to make an evaluation of present sentiment of investing money in capital markets and especially in stocks. Also, is necessary to determine which are the most important problems in this situation and seek an adequate stimulus for future development of direct investment.

ADVISABILITY OF MERGING THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE AND THE SIBIU MONETARYFINANCIAL AND STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aura Dudas

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Analysis of performances of local stock exchanges in the latest years points out thenecessity of increasing the visibility of the local capital market in the regional andEuropean landscape. A single stock market may have the effect of increased credibility,giving thus an impulse to the number of new listings and of new investors.

Who continues to stock oral artemisinin monotherapy? Results of a provider survey in Myanmar.

Science.gov (United States)

Thein, Si Thu; Sudhinaraset, May; Khin, Hnin Su Su; McFarland, Willi; Aung, Tin

2016-06-22

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is a key strategy for global malaria elimination efforts. However, the development of artemisinin-resistant malaria parasites threatens progress and continued usage of oral artemisinin monotherapies (AMT) predisposes the selection of drug resistant strains. This is particularly a problem along the Myanmar/Thailand border. The artemisinin monotherapy replacement programme (AMTR) was established in 2012 to remove oral AMT from stocks in Myanmar, specifically by replacing oral AMT with quality-assured ACT and conducting behavioural change communication activities to the outlets dispensing anti-malarial medications. This study attempts to quantify the characteristics of outlet providers who continue to stock oral AMT despite these concerted efforts. A cross-sectional survey of all types of private sector outlets that were stocking anti-malarial drugs in 13 townships of Eastern Myanmar was implemented from July to August 2014. A total of 573 outlets were included. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted to assess outlet and provider-level characteristics associated with stocking oral AMT. In total, 2939 outlets in Eastern Myanmar were screened for presence of any anti-malarial drugs in August 2014. The study found that 573 (19.5 %) had some kind of oral anti-malarial drug in stock at the time of survey and among them, 96 (16.8 %) stocked oral AMT. In bivariate analyses, compared to health care facilities, itinerant drug vendors, retailers and health workers were less likely to stock oral AMT (33.3 vs 12.9, 10.0, 8.1 %, OR = 0.30, 0.22, 0.18, respectively). Providers who cut blister pack or sell partial courses (40.6 vs 11.7 %, OR 5.18, CI 3.18-8.44) and those who based their stock decision on consumer demand (32.8 vs 12.1 %, OR 3.54, CI 2.21-5.63) were more likely to stock oAMT. Multivariate logistic regressions produced similar significant associations. Private healthcare facilities and drug

Hospital pharmacists' evaluation of drug wholesaler services.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, W O; Ryan, M R; Roberts, K B

1983-10-01

Services provided by drug wholesalers were evaluated by hospital pharmacists. A survey was mailed to 1500 randomly selected pharmacy directors. Respondents indicated availability and use of 26 customer services. Pharmacists rated the services that they used on the basis of importance of the service and satisfaction with the service. The 644 returned questionnaires indicated that most services were available to a large majority of respondents. Most services used were rated as important or essential. Most respondents were satisfied with wholesaler services; the service with which the most respondents were dissatisfied was stocking of pharmaceuticals in single-unit packaging. Of other services that were widely used and rated important, prompt crediting for delivery errors, few out-of-stock items, frequent pickup of return merchandise, and stocking of injectable pharmaceuticals received low satisfaction ratings. Same-day delivery service and emergency delivery of prescription items were unavailable to more than 40% of respondents. Hospital pharmacists were generally satisfied with services provided by drug wholesalers. Wholesalers should be aware of the particular service needs of hospital pharmacists, and further studies of these needs should be conducted.

Theoretical Grounds of Enterprise Anti-crisis Financial Management

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Berest Maryna M.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in specification and deepening of the essence and theoretical grounds of the enterprise anti-crisis financial management (EAFM. The article analyses and generalises literature, devoted to anti-crisis management problems, marks out and characterises main structural elements of the enterprise anti-crisis financial management: goal, task, object and subject. It shows that tasks of the enterprise anti-crisis financial management should show its essence in the context of preventive, stabilising and anti-crisis components. The article groups and clarifies the concept of functions and principles of the enterprise anti-crisis financial management. It marks basic, specific and integration functions and provides their description. It also marks out and characterises individual principles, which identify the EAFM process, justify development and realisation of anti-crisis solutions and measures and also characterise EAFM organisation at an enterprise. Prospects of further developments in this direction are overview, analysis and improvement of methodical instruments of realisation of the specified EAFM tasks on the basis of the considered theoretical aspects.

Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

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Dahiru A. Bala

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009 on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs are lower compared with correlations among DMs and increase during financial crises. Furthermore, we detect evidence of volatility spillovers and observe that own-volatility spillovers are higher than cross-volatility spillovers for EMs suggesting that shocks have not been substantially transmitted among EMs compared to DMs. We also find significant asymmetric behaviour in DMs while weak evidence is detected for EMs. Finally, the DCC-with-skewed-t density model provided improved diagnostics compared to other models partly due to its taking into account fat tails and skewed features often present in financial returns.

Volatility Transmission between Dow Jones Stock Index and Emerging Bond Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Saadaoui

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we use a bivariate GARCH model to estimate simultaneously of the mean and the conditional variance between the Dow Jones stock index and some emerging bond indices. We used the DCC-GARCH model to graphically demonstrate the peaks of the volatility transmission. We examined this transmission using daily returns between July, 30, 2009 and January, 18, 2011 extracted from Datastream. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant transmission of shocks and volatility between the Dow Jones stock index and bond indices of the emerging countries. The results also confirm the idea that the crisis was transmitted from the United States to the emerging countries due to foreign investment made in these countries.

A worker-driven way out of the crisis in Mediterranean agriculture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Iocco (Giulio); K.A. Siegmann (Karin Astrid)

2017-01-01

textabstractSOS Rosarno, an association of farmworkers, farmers and activists in Calabria, Italy, represents an innovative response from below to the extreme exploitation and precarity of migrant farmworkers in the Mediterranean region, as well as to the retailer-driven crisis of small-scale

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

2018-01-01

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

¿Crisis internacional o crisis del capitalismo?.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Hawkins.

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The present global recession that sprung out of the US banking and Real Estate sectors in 2007 has its roots in the massive State and financial upheavals implemented in the face of the 1970s crisis of over accumulation. These transformations had as their objective the reneging of the Keynesian, tripartite model of regulation and its association with the ‘Welfare State’. As such, the post-1970 neo-liberal financial order can be best seen as a ‘class project’ to reassert the dominance of grand capital, especially financial capital, both in the political and economic fields. Examining the intricate links between the present crisis and the structural governance changes enacted over the past 30 years, principally in the United States, the fallacies of ultra-growth and the speculative model become obvious as do their class dimensions and impact. However, despite the seeming ideological death of neo-liberalism, on close inspection, the policies so far enacted by the Obama administration make no concerted move out of the past era of financial sector hegemony.

Husserl's Crisis as a crisis of psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Feest, Uljana

2012-06-01

This paper places Husserl's mature work, The Crisis of the European Sciences, in the context of his engagement with--and critique of--experimental psychology at the time. I begin by showing (a) that Husserl accorded psychology a crucial role in his philosophy, i.e., that of providing a scientific analysis of subjectivity, and (b) that he viewed contemporary psychology--due to its naturalism--as having failed to pursue this goal in the appropriate manner. I then provide an analysis of Husserl's views about naturalism and scientific philosophy. Some central themes of the Crisis are traced back to Husserl's earlier work and to his relationship with his teacher, Franz Brentano, with whom he disagreed about the status of "inner perception" as the proper scientific method for a phenomenological analysis. The paper then shows that Husserl was well aware of at least one publication about the crisis of psychology (Bühler's 1927 book), and it teases out some aspects of the complicated relationship between Husserl and members of the Würzburg School of thought psychology: The latter had drawn on Husserl's writings, but Husserl felt that they had misunderstood his central thesis. I conclude by placing Husserl's work in the wider context of scientific, cultural, and political crisis-discourses at the time. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Exchange Traded Funds in the Price Discovery Process of Stocks Listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange

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Edson Kambeu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the role of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs in the price discovery process of stocks listed at the Botswana Stock Exchange.Using daily returns data covering the period 3 January 2013 to 31 December 2015   for Beta Betta ETF and Domestic Company Indices, we utilize a VECM model to find out whether the Betta Beta ETF is playing a significant role in the price discovery process of stocks listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange. We found the error correction term to be statistically significant thereby confirming that the Beta Betta ETF is playing a significant role in the price discovery of stocks listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange.

The illogicality of stock-brokers: psychological experiments on the effects of prior knowledge and belief biases on logical reasoning in stock trading.

Science.gov (United States)

Knauff, Markus; Budeck, Claudia; Wolf, Ann G; Hamburger, Kai

2010-10-18

Explanations for the current worldwide financial crisis are primarily provided by economists and politicians. However, in the present work we focus on the psychological-cognitive factors that most likely affect the thinking of people on the economic stage and thus might also have had an effect on the progression of the crises. One of these factors might be the effect of prior beliefs on reasoning and decision-making. So far, this question has been explored only to a limited extent. We report two experiments on logical reasoning competences of nineteen stock-brokers with long-lasting vocational experiences at the stock market. The premises of reasoning problems concerned stock trading and the experiments varied whether or not their conclusions--a proposition which is reached after considering the premises--agreed with the brokers' prior beliefs. Half of the problems had a conclusion that was highly plausible for stock-brokers while the other half had a highly implausible conclusion. The data show a strong belief bias. Stock-brokers were strongly biased by their prior knowledge. Lowest performance was found for inferences in which the problems caused a conflict between logical validity and the experts' belief. In these cases, the stock-brokers tended to make logically invalid inferences rather than give up their existing beliefs. Our findings support the thesis that cognitive factors have an effect on the decision-making on the financial market. In the present study, stock-brokers were guided more by past experience and existing beliefs than by logical thinking and rational decision-making. They had difficulties to disengage themselves from vastly anchored thinking patterns. However, we believe, that it is wrong to accuse the brokers for their "malfunctions", because such hard-wired cognitive principles are difficult to suppress even if the person is aware of them.

The illogicality of stock-brokers: psychological experiments on the effects of prior knowledge and belief biases on logical reasoning in stock trading.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Knauff

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Explanations for the current worldwide financial crisis are primarily provided by economists and politicians. However, in the present work we focus on the psychological-cognitive factors that most likely affect the thinking of people on the economic stage and thus might also have had an effect on the progression of the crises. One of these factors might be the effect of prior beliefs on reasoning and decision-making. So far, this question has been explored only to a limited extent. METHODS: We report two experiments on logical reasoning competences of nineteen stock-brokers with long-lasting vocational experiences at the stock market. The premises of reasoning problems concerned stock trading and the experiments varied whether or not their conclusions--a proposition which is reached after considering the premises--agreed with the brokers' prior beliefs. Half of the problems had a conclusion that was highly plausible for stock-brokers while the other half had a highly implausible conclusion. RESULTS: The data show a strong belief bias. Stock-brokers were strongly biased by their prior knowledge. Lowest performance was found for inferences in which the problems caused a conflict between logical validity and the experts' belief. In these cases, the stock-brokers tended to make logically invalid inferences rather than give up their existing beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the thesis that cognitive factors have an effect on the decision-making on the financial market. In the present study, stock-brokers were guided more by past experience and existing beliefs than by logical thinking and rational decision-making. They had difficulties to disengage themselves from vastly anchored thinking patterns. However, we believe, that it is wrong to accuse the brokers for their "malfunctions", because such hard-wired cognitive principles are difficult to suppress even if the person is aware of them.

Scaling and volatility of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2013-01-01

Because the movement of stock prices is not only ubiquitous in financial markets but also crucial for investors, extensive studies have been done to understand the law behind it. In particular, since the financial crisis in 2008, researchers have a more interest in investigating large market volatilities in order to grasp changing market trends. In this work, we analyze the breakouts and breakdowns of both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the US stock market and the Shanghai Composite Index in the Chinese stock market. The breakout usually represents an ongoing upward trend in technical analysis while the breakdown represents an ongoing downward trend. Based on the renormalization method, we introduce two parameters to quantize breakouts and breakdowns, respectively. We discover scaling behavior, characterized by power-law distributions for both the breakouts and breakdowns in the two financial markets with different power-law exponents, which reflect different market volatilities. In detail, the market volatility for breakdowns is usually larger than that for breakouts. Moreover, as an emerging market, the Chinese stock market has larger market volatilities for both the breakouts and breakdowns than the US stock market (a mature market). Further, the short-term volatilities show similar features for both the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. However, the medium-term volatilities in the US stock market are almost symmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns, whereas those in the Chinese stock market appear to be asymmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns. The methodology presented here provides a way to understand scaling and hence volatilities of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics. Our findings not only reveal the features of market volatilities but also make a comparison between mature and emerging financial markets.

Scaling and volatility of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Liu

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Because the movement of stock prices is not only ubiquitous in financial markets but also crucial for investors, extensive studies have been done to understand the law behind it. In particular, since the financial crisis in 2008, researchers have a more interest in investigating large market volatilities in order to grasp changing market trends. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work, we analyze the breakouts and breakdowns of both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the US stock market and the Shanghai Composite Index in the Chinese stock market. The breakout usually represents an ongoing upward trend in technical analysis while the breakdown represents an ongoing downward trend. Based on the renormalization method, we introduce two parameters to quantize breakouts and breakdowns, respectively. We discover scaling behavior, characterized by power-law distributions for both the breakouts and breakdowns in the two financial markets with different power-law exponents, which reflect different market volatilities. In detail, the market volatility for breakdowns is usually larger than that for breakouts. Moreover, as an emerging market, the Chinese stock market has larger market volatilities for both the breakouts and breakdowns than the US stock market (a mature market. Further, the short-term volatilities show similar features for both the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. However, the medium-term volatilities in the US stock market are almost symmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns, whereas those in the Chinese stock market appear to be asymmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The methodology presented here provides a way to understand scaling and hence volatilities of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics. Our findings not only reveal the features of market volatilities but also make a comparison between mature and emerging financial markets.

SENSITIVITY OF THE INVESTOR'S TOWARDS STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT

OpenAIRE

M. Jaya

2017-01-01

Investment in stock market has become a common phenomenon for all the individuals. The growth of stock market contributes to national economic growth only when this growth translates into increased mobilization of resources, return from investment, and minimizing the risk attached to stock market investment. This survey has been conducted to find out the stock market investment pattern and risk diversification of retail equity investors. A well structured questionnaire which is pilot teste...

Nuclear power: a route out of world crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffs, Eric.

1981-01-01

Presentations at the Eleventh World Energy Conference in September 1980 are highlighted, with the emphasis on nuclear energy. High oil prices have adversely affected the economies of many countries, but especially the less developed countries (LDC). The extent to which nuclear power can help the LDCs in the near future is limited by the size of their electricity grids. In the more developed countries, the discussion of nuclear energy is dominated by perceived need and public acceptance. The crisis of confidence in nuclear energy is not completely global. Both France and the COMECON countries have ambitious long-range plans, including nuclear combined heat and power units, and the more advanced developing countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, Korea and Mexico, are also pressing ahead with nuclear programs. (NDH)

Effects of changing nutrient inputs on the ratio of small pelagic fish stock and phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yunev, Oleg A.; Velikova, Violeta; Carstensen, Jacob

2017-10-01

Significant increases in nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the Black Sea in the second half of the 20th century caused eutrophication and drastically decreasing Si:N and Si:P ratios. Combined with climate change, overfishing of top predators and a huge outbreak of the non-indigenous ctenophore Mnemiopsis, the pelagic food web was strongly modified and its efficiency for channeling primary production to higher trophic levels substantially reduced. We used the ratio between small pelagic fish stock and phytoplankton biomass on the Danube shelf and in the open Black Sea to investigate long-term changes in food web functioning. The ratio had 1) highest values for the pre-eutrophication period when diatoms and copepods dominated the pelagic food web ('muscle food chain'), 2) decreased during the eutrophication period with stronger prevalence of autotrophic pico- and nanophytoplankton, bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, microzooplankton, Noctiluca and jellyfish ('jelly food chain' with increased importance of the microbial loop), 3) lowest values during the ecological crisis (1989-1992), when small pelagic fish stocks collapsed, and 4) increased after 1993, indicating that the ecosystem went out of the crisis and exhibited a trend of recovery. However, in the last period (1993-2008) the ratio remained close to values observed in the middle eutrophication phase, suggesting that the ecosystem was far from fully recovered. Since early 2000s, fluctuating pelagic fish stocks, with a tendency to decreasing fish landing again, have been observed in the Black Sea. Additionally, the quality of food for the small pelagic fish has deteriorated due to warming trends and the legacy of eutrophication, giving support for the 'jelly food chain', exhibiting low energy transfer and prevalence of organisms with high respiration rate and low nutritional value.

Study on the Shock-transmission Mechanism of Stock Price among China, Russia and India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Menggen Chen

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Researchers pay more and more attention on the price comovement-effect among international stock markets. This paper deals with the transmission mechanism of price shocks among three stock markets of China, Russia and India, with a sample of weekly returns. The results showed that the price fluctuation of each market has an influence on other markets, although the price behavior is significantly independent. The impact of external price innovations will last 5 or 6 weeks usually and disappear after about 8 weeks. The pattern of transmission-mechanism for the price shocks is very different from each other. Besides, a further study revealed that the influence of external shocks on the domestic stock price increased significantly among the three markets after the 2008 international financial crisis.

Out-of-season recollection of drug use for seasonal IgE-mediated rhinitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødtger, Uffe; Malling, Hans-Jørgen; Poulsen, Lars K

2005-01-01

in a double-blind study. Drug use was recorded daily during the season 2000 and out-seasonally 6 months after the seasons 1999 and 2000. The mean daily drug use was transformed into a 4-point categorical scale for simplicity and was calculated for the out-seasonal rating and for 6 in-seasonal periods...

The Nature of Crisis in Enterprise Activities

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Kozachenko Ganna V.

2017-09-01

Full Text Available It is shown that the concept of enterprise anti-crisis management and its components should be based on the nature of crisis in enterprise activities, the idea of which is the fundamental basis of enterprise anti-crisis management and determines its object, subject, tasks, main guidelines and vectors. Examples of defining the concept “crisis in enterprise activities”, which testify to the lack of unity of views on its content, are given. There revealed the attributive nature of crisis in enterprise activities, according to which a crisis, being an attribute of the system “enterprise”, begins intensifying under the influence of driving forces and individual factors, which is identified by presence of disruptions in the performance by the enterprise of its functions. There substantiated the expediency of singling out manifestations of crisis in enterprise activities (crisis phenomena, crisis situation and crisis state depending on the level of disruptions in the performance by the enterprise of its functions, which is of great importance for determining the tasks of enterprise anti-crisis management. The crisis cycle in enterprise activities in any of its manifestations is analysed, features of the cycle are considered.

Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chian, Abraham C.-L.; Rempel, Erico L.; Rogers, Colin

2006-01-01

Complex economic dynamics is studied by a forced oscillator model of business cycles. The technique of numerical modeling is applied to characterize the fundamental properties of complex economic systems which exhibit multiscale and multistability behaviors, as well as coexistence of order and chaos. In particular, we focus on the dynamics and structure of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles within a periodic window of the bifurcation diagram, at the onset of a saddle-node bifurcation and of an attractor merging crisis, and in the chaotic regions associated with type-I intermittency and crisis-induced intermittency, in non-linear economic cycles. Inside a periodic window, chaotic saddles are responsible for the transient motion preceding convergence to a periodic or a chaotic attractor. The links between chaotic saddles, crisis and intermittency in complex economic dynamics are discussed. We show that a chaotic attractor is composed of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits located in the gap regions of chaotic saddles. Non-linear modeling of economic chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency can improve our understanding of the dynamics of financial intermittency observed in stock market and foreign exchange market. Characterization of the complex dynamics of economic systems is a powerful tool for pattern recognition and forecasting of business and financial cycles, as well as for optimization of management strategy and decision technology

FDIs and investment policy in some European countries after their EU accession. Challenges during the crisis

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Magdalena RADULESCU

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to find out to what extent the accession countries will be able to benefit from an increase in the quality of foreign direct investments (FDIs that they receive due to EU membership. Although there will be some investment in new affiliates resulting in greenfield subsidiaries, transnational companies (TNCs may divest their operations in response to better location advantages elsewhere in the EU (as Spain and Portugal are experiencing because their low-cost advantages are eroded. In many Central and Eastern European (CEE countries, the share of foreign ownership in total capital stock is already typically much higher than in older EU member states, but we can already observe a trend of relocating TNCs’ subsidiaries to other emerging countries in order to diminish the costs, in the context of the present crisis and we believe that this trend will continue in the future, especially in the crisis context when the inceptive burden is heavy for governments. The conclusion of this paper is that the CEE countries haven’t faced quite similar conditions as the Southern European countries that acceded to the EU in the ‘80s. So, their benefits have considerably diminished and the present crisis didn’t help them at all to reduce their economic gaps comparing to the developed European countries.

From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohl, Martin T.; Kaufmann, Philipp; Stephan, Patrick M.

2013-01-01

Stocks of German renewable energy companies have commonly been regarded as lucrative investment opportunities. Their innovative line of business initially seemed to promise considerable future earnings. As shown by two powerful bubble tests, the positive sentiment for renewable energy stocks even led to explosive price behavior in the mid-2000s. However, intense sector competition and the economic downturn following the global financial crisis erased profit margins to a large extent. As a result, the former fad stocks have recently turned into losers, loading negatively on price momentum and delivering significantly negative Carhart four-factor alphas. The radical shift in Germany's energy policy following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan could thus only temporarily halt the continuing decline in alternative energy stock prices. - Highlights: ► We examine the return behavior of German renewable energy stocks between 2004 and 2011. ► The former fad stocks have recently turned into loser stocks. ► They produced significantly negative Carhart four-factor alphas since 2008. ► The price behavior before 2008 was considerably driven by explosiveness. ► Upbeat sector sentiment in the mid-2000s might have caused this speculative bubble

Did Fiscal Stimulus Lift Developing Asia Out of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Investigation

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Seok-Kyun Hur

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The substantial slowdown of economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is rekindling debate on whether developing Asia should use fiscal expansion to boost aggregate demand. A key factor in the debate is the effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy in the region. The global crisis, as well as the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by developing Asian countries at that time, give some clues to this important issue. The region weathered the global crisis well and experienced a robust V-shaped recovery. According to conventional wisdom, the fiscal stimulus packages put in place by Asian governments played a key role in the region’s recovery. The central objective of this paper is to empirically test this wisdom by using cross-country panel data. Our main finding is that the stimulus has had a limited but positive impact on developing Asia’s output during the global crisis. This lends some support to the notion that countercyclical fiscal policy can help the region cope with severe external shocks. The broader, more fundamental implication for regional policymakers is that the region’s long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline can yield significant benefits beyond macroeconomic stability. An important consequence of this commitment - relatively healthy fiscal balance sheets - enabled the region’s governments to quickly and decisively embark upon fiscal stimulus programs.

Global financial crisis

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MSc. Jusuf Qarkaxhija

2011-03-01

influences the pro-cess of attracting foreign investment, and further influencing the growth of unemployment, and in turn expanding the financial crisis, where finances are already fragile. In the following sections, we will elaborate on the financial crisis in a global aspect, the impacts of this crisis in economic development, and the role of stock exchange in finance, thereby creating a multi-dimensional horizon of the problem.

Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market

OpenAIRE

John T. Barkoulas; Christopher F. Baum; Nickolaos Travlos

1996-01-01

We test for stochastic long memory in the Greek stock market, an emerging capital market. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. Contrary to findings for major capital markets, significant and robust evidence of positive long-term persistence is found in the Greek stock market. As compared to benchmark linear models, the estimated fractional models provide improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Greek stock returns series over long...

Volatility in financial markets: The impact of the global financial crisis

OpenAIRE

Valls Ruiz, Natàlia

2014-01-01

This dissertation focuses on volatility in financial markets, with a special concern for: (i) volatility transmission between different financial markets and asset categories and, (ii) the effect of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlation of stock markets. These issues are analysed taking into account the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility and incorporating the period of financial turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis. The study focuses the attention on...

Investigation of the Greek Stock Exchange volatility and the impact of foreign markets from 2007 to 2012

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Nikolaos Sariannidis

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this paper - The current paper aims to analyze the impact of the debt crisis on the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility. The research also examines the impact of powerful foreign capital markets on the Greek Stock Exchange market, the seasonality returns (Day-of-the-Week effect and the volatility structure. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis of data is made by employing the GARCH models, and more specifically the GJR-GARCH model. Findings - The results of the GJR-GARCH model demonstrate that the debt crisis and, therefore, its consequences increase the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility and the Greek market does not react asymmetrically to negative information. In addition, the results indicate the importance of foreign markets in shaping the first moment of the FTSE / ASE 20 index and the presence of the Reverse Day of the Week effect. Research limitations/implications - The implication of volatility measurement is vital in determining the cost for investment, security pricing markets, hedging and other trading strategies, and also for regulatory policies conducted within financial markets. Originality/value - The paper may prove helpful to regulatory authorities, investors and financial analysts to understand the structure and behavior of volatility in a small stock exchange market under crisis.

An Empirical Analysis of Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Macedonia

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Lazarov Darko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper has two goals. The first goal is to investigate the influence of stock market development on economic growth for a group of 14 transition economies from the Central and South-East European (CSEE region in the period 2002-2012, while the second is to analyze the main characteristics and specificities of the stock market in the Republic of Macedonia. To fulfil the first goal, we apply panel regression models (fixed and random effects and a dynamic panel model (Generalized Method of Moments – GMM, while we use a single country approach and comparative analysis to examine the main characteristics of the Macedonian stock market. The estimated results indicate that stock market development is positive and significantly correlated with economic growth. Additionally, the comparative analysis of the stock market in the Republic of Macedonia suggests that the Macedonian stock market is still underdeveloped and faces a number of challenges before it can enter a new phase of development after the negative impact of the global financial crisis. Those challenges include capital market regional integration and the harmonization of legal and institutional frameworks such as bankruptcy procedures, accounting and reporting standards, public sector regulatory bodies, corporate governance and a liberalized trade regime.

The effects of the global economic crisis in Latin America

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Arturo Guillén R.

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyze the current phase of the global crisis and the way it has manifested itself in Latin America. The global crisis is the most important capitalist crisis since World War II. It is a new type of debt-deflation crisis, highlighting the limits of the finance-dominated regime of accumulation and characterized by securitization. Latin American countries have not been immune to the global crisis. Since it sets limits on globalization, the impossibility of maintaining export-driven accumulation sustained by restrictive monetary and fiscal policies becomes clear. This time, there will be no way out in external markets for any country. That fact will force them to restructure productive systems and search for a way out in domestic markets and in regional spaces for integration.

An Analysis of the Role of Social Safety Net Scholarships in Reducing School Drop-Out during the Indonesian Economic Crisis. Innocenti Working Papers.

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Lisa A.

This paper uses regression and matching techniques to evaluate Indonesia's Social Safety Net Scholarships Programme. The scholarships program was developed to try to prevent large numbers of children from dropping out of school as a result of the Asian financial crisis. The expectation was that many families would find it difficult to keep their…

Management of type 2 diabetes and its prescription drug cost before and during the economic crisis in Greece: an observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liatis, Stavros; Papaoikonomou, Stavroula; Ganotopoulou, Asimina; Papazafiropoulou, Athanasia; Dinos, Constantinos; Michail, Marios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Melidonis, Andreas; Pappas, Stavros

2014-03-05

The aim of the present study is to examine the clinical indices related to cardiovascular risk management of Greek patients with type 2 diabetes, before and after the major economic crisis that emerged in the country. In this retrospective database study, the medical records of patients with type 2 diabetes treated at three diabetes outpatient centers of the national health system during 2006 and 2012 were examined. Only patients with at least six months of follow-up prior to the recorded examination were included. The prescription cost was calculated in Euros per patient-year (€PY). A total of 1953 medical records (938 from 2006 and 1015 from 2012) were included. There were no significant differences in adjusted HbA1c, systolic blood pressure and HDL-C, while significant reductions were observed in LDL-C and triglycerides. In 2012, a higher proportion of patients were prescribed glucose-lowering, lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications. Almost 4 out of 10 patients were prescribed the new incretin-based medications, while the use of older drugs, except for metformin, decreased. A significant increase in the adjusted glucose-lowering prescription cost (612.4 [586.5-638.2] €PY vs 390.7 [363.5-418.0]; p crisis, the cardiovascular risk indices of Greek patients with type 2 diabetes being followed in public outpatient diabetes clinics did not deteriorate and in the case of lipid profile improved. However, the total prescription cost increased, mainly due to the higher cost of glucose-lowering prescriptions.

Out of the Crisis. A radical change of strategy for the Eurozone

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Andrea Ginzburg

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper argues that the crisis, mistakenly interpreted as a standard fiscal/balance of payments problem, was generated by the incomplete nature of the European institutions and a disregard for the consequences of differences in the stages of development of the member countries. The ideological pre-conception that markets are self-equilibrating through price competition has been used to justify disastrous internal devaluation policies in the belief that an austerity regime associated with institutions close to those assumed to prevail in 'core' countries would create the 'right' environment for resuming growth in the periphery. An analysis of the main phases of the development of European countries since the second post-war period provides evidence of wide differences in the productive structures of the countries of the centre and the southern periphery of Europe at the start of the Europeanization process. These differences entailed an asymmetric capacity of countries at differing levels of development to adjust to external shocks. This longer-term perspective helps us better to assess the limitations of the two alternatives that have been suggested to steer the EZ economy out of its present quagmire: internal devaluation (wage flexibility in the deficit (Southern European countries, or expansion of internal demand in 'core' countries (Germany. Both measures, it is argued, do not go to the root of the development and debt sustainability problems of Southern European countries, which continue to lack a sufficiently broad and differentiated productive structure. Given the differences in the levels of development of the various EU countries and their varying capacities to cope with change, fiscal policy should be assigned two complementary targets: the role of actively promoting — through investment —the removal of development bottlenecks and the renewal of the productive base, and a redistributive and compensative function. This new strategy

Effects of Global Economic Crisis on Travel Agencies and Crisis Management Practices in Turkey

OpenAIRE

AVCI, Nilgün; KÜÇÜKUSTA, Deniz

2014-01-01

AbstractCrisis management has become a requirement for businesses particularly in tourism industry. In spite of the limited studies carried out in this field in Turkey, the survey of the subject has significance in practices undergone by travel agencies, which are the backbones of the tourism industry. In this context we aim to analyze the measures and practices adopted by travel agencies during periods of crisis; determine the frequency of utilization of these measures and practices during p...

Effects of Global Economic Crisis on Travel Agencies and Crisis Management Practices in Turkey

OpenAIRE

AVCI, Nilgün; KÜÇÜKUSTA, Deniz

2015-01-01

AbstractCrisis management has become a requirement for businesses particularly in tourism industry. In spite of the limited studies carried out in this field in Turkey, the survey of the subject has significance in practices undergone by travel agencies, which are the backbones of the tourism industry. In this context we aim to analyze the measures and practices adopted by travel agencies during periods of crisis; determine the frequency of utilization of these measures and practices during p...

Financing R & D with Knowledge Stock Rentals

OpenAIRE

John M. Hartwick

1993-01-01

We set out an endogenous growth model along the lines of Romer(1990) and investigate the implications of financing new knowledge production (R&D) with rental income accruing to the knowledge stock used in goods production. The knowledge stock is a non-public input in goods production. The balance growth rate under optimal growth can be greater or less than that under the invest knowledge stock rentals regime depends on the parameters of the production function and not on the parameters of pre...

Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

2014-09-01

Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

The development of the cartoons crisis - a Danish perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jørgen Schøler

2010-01-01

Gives an account of the Danish cartoons crisis of 2005-6, considers comparisons with the 'Rushdie affair' and points out some underlying questions of religion, law and the public space.......Gives an account of the Danish cartoons crisis of 2005-6, considers comparisons with the 'Rushdie affair' and points out some underlying questions of religion, law and the public space....

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

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Carlos Alberto Cinquetti

2005-09-01

Full Text Available The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

Impact of company performances on the stock price: An empirical analysis on select companies in Serbia

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Milošević-Avdalović Snežana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The global financial crisis of the late 2007 has provoked unprecedented shocks to the world markets and weaken investors' confidence due to the turbulent movements and frequent changes of stock prices. Emerging capital markets suffer from unsatisfactory corporate governance, market manipulation and insider trade problems. In such circumstances, institutional investors, managers, analysts and other market participants are in constant search of the trading strategy that will outperform the market. This research is an instrument for the identification of the main determinants of stock prices on the Belgrade Stock Exchange. The panel data regression analysis includes 42 companies that represent the composition of the BelexLine index for the period from 2010 to 2014. The paper looks at the impact of specific (internal variables of companies, such as company size, return on assets, return on equity, earnings per stock, book value, price-earning ratio, price-to-book ratio and leverage and the stock price of companies that compose the BelexLine index. The results indicate that variables such as the size of the company measured by assets, return on assets, leverage, earnings per stock, book value and price-to-book ratio provide a unique contribution to a statistically significant predictor of stock prices.

Grow-out of spiny lobster Panulirus sp. with high stocking density in controlled tanks

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Rio Yusufi Subhan

2018-05-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe aim of this research was to determine optimum stocking density for growing-out of spiny lobster Panulirus sp. in controlled tanks that conducted for 30 days. The experimental spiny lobsters have the initial average weight of 130.39 ± 0.32 g and initial average total length of 140.70 ± 0.06 mm. This study used completely randomized design with three different stocking densities (KT10: 10 ind/m3; KT18: 18 ind/m3; and KT26: 26 ind/m3 and two replications. The parameters observed in this study included water quality (temperature, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and total ammonia nitrogen, physiological responses (total haemocyte count, haemolymph glucose, and frequency of molt, and production performances, such as growth, specific growth rate, feed conversion ratio, and survival rate. The results showed that the spiny lobster could be reared in high stocking density in controlled tanks. Water quality during the study in each treatment was; temperature 26.56–28.65oC, salinity 29.7–33.6 g/L, pH 7.5–8.5, dissolved oxygen 6.15–6.58 mg/L, and total ammonia nitrogen 0.11–0.34 mg/L. The best stocking densities for spiny lobster was 18 ind/m3 (KT18 with 2.5‒3.5×106cells/mL total haemocyte counts, 24.6‒28.3 mg/dL haemolymph glucose, and 38.37 ± 3.20% frequency of molt. The final average body weight and length were 145.06 ± 0.42 g and 142.77 ± 0.19 mm, respectively. The survival rate reached 86.11 ± 3.92% with a specific growth rate 0.35 ± 0.01%/day, and feed conversion ratio 7.87 ± 0.31.Keywords: high stocking density, Panulirus sp., physiological responses, productivity.  ABSTRAKTujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan kepadatan terbaik dalam pembesaran lobster laut Panulirus sp. yang dipelihara dalam bak terkontrol selama 30 hari. Lobster laut yang digunakan pada awal penelitian memiliki bobot 130,39 ± 0,32 g dan panjang total 140,70 ± 0,06 mm. Penelitian dilakukan menggunakan rancangan acak lengkap dengan

Implementation and evaluation of a web based system for pharmacy stock management in rural Haiti.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Elisabeth J; Jazayeri, Darius; Sauveur, Marcel; Manasse, Jean Joel; Plancher, Inel; Fiefe, Marquise; Laurat, Guerline; Joseph, Samahel; Kempton, Kathryn; Fraser, Hamish S F

2007-10-11

Managing the stock and supply of medication is essential for the provision of health care, especially in resource poor areas of the world. We have developed an innovative, web-based stock management system to support nine clinics in rural Haiti. Building on our experience with a web-based EMR system for our HIV patients, we developed a comprehensive stock tracking system that is modeled on the appearance of standardized WHO stock cards. The system allows pharmacy staff at all clinics to enter stock levels and also to request drugs and track shipments. Use of the system over the last 2 years has increased rapidly and we now track 450 products supporting care for 1.78 million patient visits annually. Over the last year drug stockouts have fallen from 2.6% to 1.1% and 97% of stock requests delivered were shipped within 1 day. We are now setting up this system in our clinics in rural Rwanda.

Glomerular function in sickle cell disease patients during crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Aderibigbe, A; Arije, A; Akinkugbe, O O

1994-06-01

An 8 month prospective study was carried out in 20 adult sickle cell disease (SCD) patients 16 sickle cell anaemia (Hbss) and 4 sickle cell Hbc disease (Hbsc); who had vaso-occlusive crises within the study period to determine the extent of the effect of sickle cell crisis on glomerular function in SCD patients during crisis. The male: female ratio was 1:57 and their mean age was 21.1 +/- 7.9 years. Creatinine clearance (CCr), as an index of glomerular function, was determined at the pre-crisis, crisis, 2 and 4 weeks post-crisis and at the end of the study period. The mean values of their CCr dropped from 113.37 +/- 33.80mls/min at pre-crisis stage to 96.39 +/- 30.13mls/min during crisis (p pre-crisis stage (p > 0.05). It is concluded that glomerular dysfunction in SCD patients during crisis is potentially reversible.

Leading the Way to the Third Industrial Revolution. Addressing the Triple Threat of the Global Financial Crisis, Energy Crisis, and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rifkin, J.; Da Graca Carvalho, M.; Consoli, A.; Bonifacio, M.

2008-01-01

We are at a precarious point in history. We are facing the real prospect of an economic meltdown on the scale of the Great Depression. The credit crisis is compounded by the global energy crisis and the climate change crisis, creating a potential cataclysm for civilization. There is a way out: we need to radically overhaul the way we use energy in our society

Leading the Way to the Third Industrial Revolution. Addressing the Triple Threat of the Global Financial Crisis, Energy Crisis, and Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rifkin, J.; Da Graca Carvalho, M.; Consoli, A.; Bonifacio, M.

2008-12-15

We are at a precarious point in history. We are facing the real prospect of an economic meltdown on the scale of the Great Depression. The credit crisis is compounded by the global energy crisis and the climate change crisis, creating a potential cataclysm for civilization. There is a way out: we need to radically overhaul the way we use energy in our society.

The Differences Between Stock Splits and Stock Dividends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bechmann, Ken L.; Raaballe, Johannes

It is often asserted that stock splits and stock dividends are purely cosmetic events. However, many studies have documented several stock market effects associated with stock splits and stock dividends. This paper examines the effects of these two types of events for the Danish stock market...... different. Second, the positive stock market reaction is closely related to associated changes in a firm's payout policy, but the relationship varies for the two types of events. Finally, there is only very weak evidence for a change in the liquidity of the stock. On the whole, after controlling...... for the firm's payout policy, the results suggest that a stock split is a cosmetic event and that a stock dividend on its own is considered negative news....

Performance Convergence Analysis of Stock Exchanges: the Situation of the Ibovespa in the World Scenario

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Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the behavior of the most relevant worldwide stock exchanges indices. The semiparametric time series technique proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007 is used to a panel containing 36 stock exchanges allocated in economies with different development levels situated on all continents, during the period from January 1998 to December 2007. According to the results, there is no common trend, corroborating Antzolautos et al. (2009. The traditional São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (Ibovespa is the oldest one of the group with the highest level of the trend for the dynamic transition, which is comprised by volatile indices of stock exchanges with a reasonable level of maturity, located in developing economies with high rates of inflation in Central and Latin America. The second club comprises most of the indices, characterized by a higher level of maturity and tradition of financial markets and development, located mainly in Europe, North America and Asia. The third club with only four indices, has no clear patterns. The evidence that the convergence clubs composition has macroeconomic, geographical and financial patterns can be a useful to infer about the post world financial crisis behavior of stock exchanges.

Crisis, What Crisis? The Media: Business and Journalism in Times of Crisis

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Rosario de Mateo

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The global financial and economic crisis is often used to justify a crisis of media and journalism: lower advertising, collapses in the share price, falls in consumption, more unemployment. But is this just a business crisis, or is it also a crisis in journalism and its role in democratic societies? In this case, is the journalism crisis attributable to the economic crisis or, rather, was it forged during the years of high profitability and high salaries in the mass media? These two sides of the crisis, in media industry and in journalism, are addressed in this article, which explores the evolution of mainly Spanish media in the years before the crisis. However, in order to understand how they reached the current situation, political and economic transformations in what has been called the Information Society and neoliberal globalization must be addressed.

CONCEPT OF DEVELOPMENT OF COMPANY'S CRISIS ON THE BASIS OF CHANGES OF ITS STATE

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Perfilyev A. A.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The company crisis is not just its state, but a process that unfolds over time. Both in theory and in practice various indicators of the state and dynamics of the company's business are usually studied. In the article we offer a look at the development of the company crisis from the viewpoint of influence of environmental changes on the capital structure and movement of capital stock and financial flows. By changing of the state of the company’s environment we mean here a change of the configuration of its contractors - suppliers and buyers, of the terms of engagement with its older counterparts, of the conditions of its access to credit, etc. In the article we suggest the concept of management of the financial crisis of individual company based on the relationship between the change in the external environment and sequence of the company’s responses to these changes. It is based on a simulation model implemented for a company producing consumer goods in the conditions of structural decline in demand. The proposed approach and the concept of the company's crisis development is the development of the theory of crisis management. Through in-depth and structured analysis of manifestations of the crisis, they can build a sequence of methods of crisis overcoming. Practical value of the proposed concept is to increase the effectiveness of crisis management by identifying the relationship between the changes in the configuration of the environment on the one hand, and changes in capital structure and cash flow and capital flows, on the other. It allows translating unmanaged crisis into planning of crisis development of the company with further its overcoming.

THE DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY IN COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

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SORANA VĂTAVU

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This research aims to establish the determinants of financial performance in 126 Romanian companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, over a period of ten-years (2003-2012. The analysis is based on cross sectional regressions. Return on assets is the performance proxy, while the variables expected to have a significant impact on profitability are debt, asset tangibility, size, liquidity, taxation, risk, inflation and crisis. Regression results indicate that profitable companies operate with limited borrowings. Tangibility, business risk and the level of taxation have a negative impact on return on assets. Although earnings are sustained by significant sales turnover, performance is affected by high levels of liquidity. Periods of unstable economic conditions, reflected by high inflation rates and the current financial crisis, have a strong negative impact on corporate performance.

EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM OF KOSOVO

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Myrvete Badivuku-Pantina

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Financial crises are phenomena that happened before and continue to happen even nowadays. There were many financial crises in the last century, starting with the Great Depression of 1929 and continuing with other financial crisis, and it was believed that people would learn from their previous experiences and would not allow the crisis to happen again. But the financial crisis of 2007, created the impression that no one wanted to learn for the real causes of their occurrence and consequences, often disastrous for countries and the globe, and as such allowed the crisis to be repeated. Effects of the 2007 financial crisis, which originally started in the USA’s mortgage market and which was quickly spread all over the world, even to this date it still continues to have effect on real economies of many states, e.g. Greece. The spread of the crisis was primarily due to globalization and commercial trades among countries. Because of the dependence of economies on one another it was created the domino effect and all the countries were affected from the crisis. As a result, the crisis seems to have revealed the disadvantages of globalization. Finances of the world were shocked and rapid fluctuations were reflected in the stock prices. Kosovo, as a new and small country in the Western Balkans is not much globalized and open which was beneficial in preventing it from being affected from the global financial crisis. Its economy has slightly felt the effect of the crisis because the banking system in Kosovo is not much open to the international financial markets as they operate mostly with their clients’ deposits. The purpose of this research is to assess the implications of the global financial crisis in the banking system of Kosovo, and also to identify the measures that the Central Bank and the Government should undertake in order to protect the economy from external implications.

Out-of-pocket cost of drug abuse consequences: results from Iranian National Mental Health Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Hefazi, Mitra; Radgoodarzi, Reza; Motevalian, Abbas; Sharifi, Vandad; Hajebi, Ahmad; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin

2017-05-01

Drug abuse has significant cost to the individual, the family and the society. This study aimed to assess out of-pocket costs of consequences of drug use disorder. Data were drawn from the Iranian Mental Health Survey (IranMHS) through face-to-face interviews with 7841 respondents aged 15-64 years. We used a bottom-up cost-ofillness method for economic analysis. Out-of-pocket costs for treatment of mental and drug problems, treatment of medical illnesses, as well as costs of crimes were assessed. The average of total annual expense was US$ 2120.6 for those with drug use disorder, which was 23.5% of annual income of an average Iranian family in the year 2011. The average of total out-of-pocket cost was US$ 674.6 for those with other mental disorder and US$ 421.9 for those with no mental disorder. Catastrophic payment was reported in 47.6% of the patients with drug use disorder and 14.4% of those with other mental disorder. Thus, considerable amount of family resources are spent on the consequences of drug use.

The Dutch Crisis and Recovery Act: Economic Recovery and Legal Crisis?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J Verschuuren

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the 2010 Crisis and Recovery Act aims at speeding up decisionmaking on a wide variety of activities, hoping that after the financial and economic crisis has passed, development projects can immediately be carried out without any delay caused by legal procedures in court or elsewhere. The Act meets great criticism for many reasons: it allegedly curtails citizen's procedural rights because it focuses almost exclusively on environmental standards as "obstructing" standards that need to be removed, and it infringes international and European Union law. In this note, the legal critique on the Act is analysed. The conclusion is that the sense of urgency surrounding the design of legal measures to address the economic crisis enables the legislature to implement innovations and long-time pending amendments to existing legislation. Most issues have however not been fully or properly considered. Many legal questions will arise when implementing the Act, which will retard rather than expedite projects. It is difficult to predict whether the positive effects of the Crisis and Recovery Act would outweigh the negative aspects. Much depends on the manner in which the authorities will actually apply the Act. Should they implement the Act to its full potential, the effect of the Act in sum will be negative. In that case, the Act may help the economy to recover, but it will bring about a crisis in the legal system. It will, in all probability, also not contribute to sustainable development.

Analysing News for Stock Market Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Dwivedi, shivam; Bhatt, Jigar P.

2018-04-01

Stock market means the aggregation of all sellers and buyers of stocks representing their ownership claims on the business. To be completely absolute about the investment on these stocks, proper knowledge about them as well as their pricing, for both present and future is very essential. Large amount of data is collected and parsed to obtain this essential information regarding the fluctuations in the stock market. This data can be any news or public opinions in general. Recently, many methods have been used, especially big unstructured data methods to predict the stock market values. We introduce another method of focusing on deriving the best statistical learning model for predicting the future values. The data set used is very large unstructured data collected from an online social platform, commonly known as Quindl. The data from this platform is then linked to a csv fie and cleaned to obtain the essential information for stock market prediction. The method consists of carrying out the NLP (Natural Language Processing) of the data and then making it easier for the system to understand, finds and identifies the correlation in between this data and the stock market fluctuations. The model is implemented using Python Programming Language throughout the entire project to obtain flexibility and convenience of the system.

Extreme value theory in emerging markets: Evidence from the Montenegrin stock exchange

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Cerović Julija

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of Value at Risk(VaR estimates the maximum loss of a financial position at a given time for a given probability. This paper considers the adequacy of the methods that are the basis of extreme value theory in the Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether the peaks-over-threshold method outperforms the block maxima method in evaluation of Value at Risk in emerging stock markets such as the Montenegrin market. The daily return of the Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January 2004 - February 2014. Results of the Kupiec test show that the peaks-over-threshold method is significantly better than the block maxima method, but both methods fail to pass the Christoffersen independence test and joint test due to the lack of accuracy in exception clustering when measuring Value at Risk. Although better, the peaks-over-threshold method still cannot be treated as an accurate VaR model for the Montenegrin frontier stock market.

Communication crisis and its solution through crises management

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Nicoleta DĂNESCU

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Crises are never convenient as they are destructive. Any institution or organization may face a crisis situation, able to endanger its normal activity and reputation. Some crises are predictable and can be prevented, others cannot be grasped and thus prevented. Experience proved that, despite all technical, economical, financial or educational cautions taken to stop or control a crisis, it can get out of control and develop. In these circumstances, the crisis can bring serious prejudices to the organization if not properly managed from all points of view. Communication during crisis is extremely important, aiming at generating changes and taking action against the crisis. Above all, crises management consists in interpersonal relations. Management activity in crises situations develops a constant and complex communication process with the aid of which, the manager, the crisis cell, the entire staff interact in order to find the optimal strategies to survive the crisis situation.

Use of psychotropic drugs in Lombardy in time of economic crisis (2007-2011): a population-based study of adult employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Vittadini, Giorgio; Beghi, Massimiliano; Mezzanzanica, Mario; Ronzoni, Gloria; Cornaggia, Cesare Maria

2014-12-15

Over years, there has been an increase in the prescription of psychotropic drugs (PDs), particularly antidepressants (ADs). The aim of the study was to evaluate the consumption of PDs in adult employees in a productive area of Italy and the possible changes induced by the "economic crisis". The study is a retrospective survey in all adult employees in Lombardy, Northern Italy, aged >18 years in the period 2007-2011, classified by gender, age class, nationality, education and province. During the 5-year period, there were 3,554,860 employed adults in Lombardy, of whom 277,865 (7.8%) used PDs. The use of PDs (particularly ADs) was associated with being an Italian woman aged >55 years with a basic education, a blue collar job, and an unstable working position. In 39% of cases, the use of PDs was limited to one trimester. The increase in the number of prescriptions of PDs after the economic crisis was the same as before it. The increase in PD use can be attributed more to ADs and anti-epileptic drugs with anxiolytic properties. Although continuously increasing, the use of AD fluctuated and was greater during the fall and winter. The increase involved all the provinces in Lombardy in a similar manner. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Violent behavior of patients admitted in emergency following drug suicidal attempt: a specific staff educational crisis intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Cailhol, Lionel; Allen, Michael; Moncany, Anne-Hélène; Cicotti, Andrei; Virgillito, Salvatore; Barbe, Rémy P; Lazignac, Coralie; Damsa, Cristian

2007-01-01

In spite of much effort to create guidelines on the management of violent behavior (VB) in emergency departments, little is known about the impact of such guidelines on a real-life emergency environment. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of a staff educational crisis intervention (SECI) on the reduction of VB in patients admitted to emergency departments following drug suicidal attempt. The impact of a SECI on VB of patient consulting the ER following a drug suicide attempt was assessed by comparing the occurrence of VB before (5 months) and after (5 months) the introduction of a SECI. A significant reduction in VB (from 17.32% to 7.14%) was found with the comparison of two 5-month periods: before (254 patients) and after (224 patients) the introduction of a SECI program (chi(2)=11.238; P=.0008). These preliminary data suggest the need for further prospective randomized studies aiming to prevent VB in emergency departments by developing specific SECI programs.

[Acting out and psychoactive substances: alcohol, drugs, illicit substances].

Science.gov (United States)

Gillet, C; Polard, E; Mauduit, N; Allain, H

2001-01-01

In humans, some psychotropic agents (alcohol, drugs, illicit substances) have been suggested to play a role in the occurrence of major behavioural disorders, mainly due to the suppression of psychomotor inhibition. Behavioural disinhibition is a physiological mechanism which allows humans to behave appropriately according to a given environmental situation. The behavioural disinhibition induced by either therapeutic dosage or misuse involves the loss of restraint over certain types of social behaviour and may increase the risk of auto or hetero-aggression and acting out. The increased use of psychotropic agents in recent years and the occurrence of unwanted effects are worrying and must be detected and evaluated. The objective of the present study was to establish a causal relationship between psychoactive substance use and occurrence of major behavioural disorders, such as paradoxical rage reactions and suicidal behaviour, based on a literature analysis. It consisted of reviewing reports of drug-induced violent reactions in healthy volunteers and demonstrating, where possible, a cause-effect relationship. Patients with schizophrenia and psychopathic personalities were not included in our study since psychiatric comorbidity could influence behavioural responses. Psychotropic agents included drugs, licit and illicit substances already associated with violence in the past. Many reports used the "Go/No Go test" to evaluate the disinhibiting effect of psychotropic substances; this allows the "cognitive mapping" of drugs. The results suggest that only alcohol, antidepressants, benzodiazepines and cocaïne are related to aggressive behaviour. The best known precipitant of behavioural disinhibition is alcohol, which induces aggressive behaviour. However, there are large differences between individuals, and attentional mechanisms are now recognised as being important in mediating the effects of alcohol. Suicidal tendency as an adverse antidepressant reaction is rare

Asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices using index-based model of A-MFDFA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Minhyuk; Song, Jae Wook; Park, Ji Hwan; Chang, Woojin

2017-01-01

Highlights: • ‘Index-based A-MFDFA’ model is proposed to assess the asymmetric multi-fractality. • The asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices are investigated using ‘Index-based’ and ‘Return-based’ A-MFDFA. • The asymmetric feature is more significantly identified by ‘Index-based’ model than ‘return-based’ model. • Source of multi-fractality and time-varying features are analyzed. - Abstract: We detect the asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices based on the asymmetric multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MFDFA). Instead using the conventional return-based approach, we propose the index-based model of A-MFDFA where the trend based on the evolution of stock index rather than stock price return plays a role for evaluating the asymmetric scaling behaviors. The results show that the multi-fractal behaviors of the U.S. stock indices are asymmetric and the index-based model detects the asymmetric multi-fractality better than return-based model. We also discuss the source of multi-fractality and its asymmetry and observe that the multi-fractal asymmetry in the U.S. stock indices has a time-varying feature where the degree of multi-fractality and asymmetry increase during the financial crisis.

DCCA cross-correlation in blue-chips companies: A view of the 2008 financial crisis in the Eurozone

Science.gov (United States)

Guedes, E.; Dionísio, A.; Ferreira, P. J.; Zebende, G. F.

2017-08-01

In this paper we analyze the blue-chips (up to 50% of the total index) companies in the Eurozone. Our motivation being analysis of the effect of the 2008 financial crisis. For this purpose, we apply the DCCA cross-correlation coefficient (ρDCCA) between the country stock market index and their respective blue-chips. Then, with the cross-correlation coefficient, we qualify and quantify how each blue-chip is adherent to its country index, evaluating the type of cross-correlation among them. Subsequently, for each blue-chip, we propose to study the 2008 financial crisis by measuring the adherence between post and pre-crisis. From this analysis, we can construct an adhesion map of each company with respect to the global index. Our database is formed of 12 Eurozone countries.

Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Cakmakli (Cem); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that

Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting stock returns and volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cakmakli, C.; van Dijk, D.

2011-01-01

This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only include

Crisis exercises with simulated media pressure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouchot, E.; Robin, M.

2016-01-01

Communication in a nuclear crisis presents always a certain degree of psychic tension due to collective stress, a multiplicity of the actors, the complexity of the situation, and a lot of requests from media, NGO or local elected officials. A bad communication in a crisis situation can jeopardize the trust in the authorities and discourage population to follow sanitary recommendations and the efficiency of the protective measures can then be threatened. So training in crisis communication has become a necessity and is now fully integrated in crisis exercises. Simulated media pressure (SMP) is wielded by a specialized agency that will test the clarity, consistency and the relevancy of the pieces of information released by the communication cells through interviews, press statements, official releases or messages to social networks. A feedback analysis is always made to point out the weaknesses. (A.C.)

Political benchmarking as part of anti-crisis strategy of the state

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S. V. Stavchenko

2014-11-01

Growth Risk and crisis situations in modern Ukraine involves the use of specific technologies in the development and implementation of reforms. In practice, this means that the state must not only adequately respond to the crisis, but also to carry out continuous training such action is to develop anti-crisis strategy.

Trade Policies and the Changing Patterns of Protectionism during the Global Financial and Economic Crisis

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Agnes Ghibuțiu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The Great Recession of 2008–09 provided a fertile ground for protectionist pressures to increase. It caused a negative shock to the global economy that is comparable with the Great Depression of the 1930s. International trade suffered a historical collapse in 2009, but trade flows quickly rebounded thereafter. And unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s, the recent global economic contraction did not trigger a massive wave of protectionism as expected. Despite important adjustments in many countries’ trade policies during the crisis and, hence, a quite notable increase in the incidence of protectionist measures, there is a widely shared belief that crisis related protectionism has been kept under control, being rather modest and limited compared with both the negative effects of the crisis and the initial concerns. A large agreement emerged also among analysts on the important role of WTO’s multilateral rules and disciplines in preventing exacerbation of economic nationalism and protectionism. The views on intensity, dynamics and potential impact of current contemporary protectionism continue, however, to diverge as they reflect in part the significant differences between the results of the different monitoring exercises, carried out particularly by the WTO and Global Trade Alert. But beyond these differences, the latest monitoring reports contain alarming signs of escalating protectionism over the post-crisis years due to the growing difficulties in the world economy. This paper takes a look at the main trends in global protectionism during and after the crisis and some of its potential implications. In doing so, the paper starts by contrasting protectionism that accompanied the Great Depression of the 1930s with the present-day protectionist phenomenon in order to briefly outline the peculiarities of the latter. Then it addresses the main factors contributing to staving off trade protectionism during the recent crisis. Relying on the

El derecho constitucional y la crisis = Constitutional law and the crisis

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Enrique Álvarez Conde

2013-09-01

Full Text Available La actual crisis económica, originada por una serie de sujetos activos con la pretensión de ocupar determinados espacios públicos, es una de las consecuencias de la llamada «globalización de la miseria». La misma esta poniendo en tela de juicio el modelo democrático de las democracias occidentales, produciendo una crisis institucional más grave aún que la propia crisis económica. Ello conduce a la necesidad imperiosa de proporcionar respuestas normativas adecuadas, que requieren la utilización de nuevas categorías dogmáticas. A este respecto, el Derecho constitucional, como Derecho común del ordenamiento jurídico y como Derecho principial, se encuentra en una posición prevalente para llevar a cabo, en colaboración con las demás disciplinas jurídicas, todo ese proceso de reconstrucción dogmática que ha de conducir, necesariamente, a una constitucionalización de lo privado. The current economic crisis, caused by a series of active subjects with the aim of occupying certain public spaces, is one of the consequences of the «globalization of poverty». It is putting into question the democratic model of Western democracies, causing a constitutional crisis even worse than the economic crisis itself. This leads to the imperative to provide appropriate policy responses, requiring the use of new categories dogmatic. In this regard, constitutional law, and common law legal system and as principial law, is prevalent in a position to carry out, in collaboration with other legal disciplines, all that dogmatic reconstruction process that must lead necessarily, a constitution for the private.

Examining the Impact of Corporate Dividend Policy On Stock Price Volatility In Singapore : Does Financial Crisis Matter?

OpenAIRE

Hussain, Muhammad Asjad

2016-01-01

One of the most puzzling and widely researched topics in the field of corporate finance is corporate dividend policy and the probable impact it has on firms’ stock price volatility. Despite years of research and extensive empirical examination of the dividend policy-stock price volatility linkage, conflicting evidence across a multitude of studies implies that no solid conclusion regarding the veracity and validity of this relationship has yet been reached. Furthermore, there is a dearth of s...

Nuclear crisis management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamburg, D.A.; George, A.L.

1984-01-01

Renewed interest in crisis management is caused by a growing recognition that a failure of communication between the superpowers in the face of a crisis provoked by some third party could issue in a nuclear war, other causes of this renewed interest are the fear of miscalculation and runaway escalation if the US and Soviet Union are drawn into a regional war in which each had vital interests and a concern that a missile might be fired on either side by accident or without proper authorization despite precautions. The authors, stating that crisis prevention should be viewed as an objective, not as a strategy, support the establishment of a joint US-Soviet nuclear risk control center designed to carry out four functions: (1) to facilitate communications between the two countries, (2) to avert nuclear confrontations during periods of accelerating tension, (3) to serve as an exchange of confidence building information during normal periods, and (4) to serve as a joint management center to plan for responses to terrorist or other third party group

Statistical properties of cross-correlation in the Korean stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, G.; Eom, C.; Wang, F.; Jung, W.-S.; Stanley, H. E.; Kim, S.

2011-01-01

We investigate the statistical properties of the cross-correlation matrix between individual stocks traded in the Korean stock market using the random matrix theory (RMT) and observe how these affect the portfolio weights in the Markowitz portfolio theory. We find that the distribution of the cross-correlation matrix is positively skewed and changes over time. We find that the eigenvalue distribution of original cross-correlation matrix deviates from the eigenvalues predicted by the RMT, and the largest eigenvalue is 52 times larger than the maximum value among the eigenvalues predicted by the RMT. The β_{473} coefficient, which reflect the largest eigenvalue property, is 0.8, while one of the eigenvalues in the RMT is approximately zero. Notably, we show that the entropy function E(σ) with the portfolio risk σ for the original and filtered cross-correlation matrices are consistent with a power-law function, E( σ) σ^{-γ}, with the exponent γ 2.92 and those for Asian currency crisis decreases significantly.

A Trust-driven Financial Crisis.Implications for the Future of Financial Markets.

OpenAIRE

Luigi Guiso

2010-01-01

The financial crisis has brought to light diffuse opportunistic behaviour and some serious frauds. Because of this trust towards banks, bankers, brokers and the stock market has collapsed to unprecedented levels and there are so far no signs of recovery. This paper uses survey-based information to document the collapse of trust, show its link to the emergence of frauds in the financial industry and discuss its consequences for the demand of financial instruments, investors portfolios and more...

How does crisis affect efficiency? An empirical study of East Asian markets

OpenAIRE

Syed Aun R. Rizvi; Shaista Arshad

2016-01-01

Much research has been undertaken in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) over the preceding two decades. With Asian countries emerging as a global powerhouse in terms of regional economics, the interest in their stock markets has picked up recently. Asian markets traditionally comprised of many emerging markets are generally assumed to be more volatile and speculative in nature. Based on this crux, we focus specifically on the response of these markets efficiency to major crisis. In recent ...

Economic crisis and changes in drug use in the Spanish economically active population.

Science.gov (United States)

Colell, Esther; Sánchez-Niubò, Albert; Delclos, George L; Benavides, Fernando G; Domingo-Salvany, Antonia

2015-07-01

To examine changes in the use of alcohol, cannabis and hypnotics/sedatives between two periods (before and during Spain's economic crisis), and to identify differences in the change between employed and unemployed individuals. Using cross-sectional data from four editions of the Spanish Household Survey on Alcohol and Drugs, we selected economically active individuals aged 16-64 years (total sample = 62 440) and defined two periods, pre-crisis [period 1 (P1) = 2005-07] and crisis (P2 = 2009-11). Poisson regression models with robust variance were fitted to obtain prevalence ratios (PR) of heavy and binge drinking and multinomial regression models to obtain relative risk ratios (RRR) of cannabis and hypnotic/sedative use between the two periods, also considering the interaction between period and employment status. While the prevalence of alcohol use remained stable, heavy drinking declined in P2 in men both overall [PR = 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.79] and in the two age groups (16-34 and 35-64 years), and also in women overall (PR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.75-0.99) and in the older age group. In contrast, binge drinking increased overall in P2 in men (PR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and in women (PR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.49-1.76), and in both age groups. No differences in the change were observed between employed and unemployed individuals. Overall cannabis use remained stable in P2, but unemployed men and women of the older age group were more likely to have increased sporadic use compared to their employed counterparts (RRR = 2.24; 95% CI = 1.36-3.68 and RRR = 3.21; 95% CI = 1.30-7.93, respectively). Hypnotic/sedative use remained stable in P2 in men, but unemployed men were less likely to have increased heavy use in P2 compared with employed men (RRR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.49-0.97). In women, heavy use increased in P2 overall and in the older age group, irrespective of employment status. During a period of economic recession in Spain, heavy drinking

Hypertensive crisis in children: an experience in a single tertiary care center in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Geum Hwa; Lee, I Re; Park, Se Jin; Kim, Ji Hong; Oh, Ji Young; Shin, Jae Il

2015-01-01

Hypertensive crisis is a medical emergency that can cause acute damage to multiple end-organs. However, relatively little is known on the etiology, treatment, and outcomes of hypertensive crisis in Korean children. The aim of this study was to determine the etiologies and efficacy of drugs for hypertensive crisis in children during the past 5 years at a single center in Korea. We analyzed data from 51 children with hypertensive crisis during the period between January 1, 2010 and April 1, 2014. The patients were divided into two groups: those diagnosed with a hypertensive emergency (hypertension with organ injury, n = 31) and those diagnosed with a hypertensive urgency (hypertension without organ injury, n = 20). Baseline etiologies and risk factors were compared between the two groups. In addition, systolic and diastolic blood pressures were evaluated at 1, 2, 4, and 5 hours after the administration of intravenous antihypertensive drugs. Kidney injury and cancer were the common causes in patients with hypertensive crisis. Cardiovascular complications (cardiac hypertrophy) (p = 0.002), central nervous system complications (p = 0.004), and retinopathy (p = 0.034) were more frequently observed in children with hypertensive emergency than those with hypertensive urgency. However, the proportion of renal complications was similar in both groups. Hydralazine was most commonly used in both groups to control acute increasing blood pressure at first. However, it was often ineffective for controlling abrupt elevated blood pressure. Therefore, intravenous antihypertensive drugs were changed from hydralazine to nicardipine, labetalol, or nitroprusside to control the high blood pressure in 45.1 % of the patients. Particularly, in patients with hypertensive crisis, there was no significant difference in reduction of systolic and diastolic blood pressure and in improvement of clinical outcomes between nicardipine and labetalol administration. Close blood

ARE THE FIVE ASEAN STOCK PRICE INDICES DYNAMICALLY INTERACTED?

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Adwin Surja Atmadja

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to examine the dynamic interactions of stock price indices in five ASEAN countries, Indonesia; Malaysia; the Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand with particular attention to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and period onwards. Using monthly time series data of the stock price indices countries, a vector error correction model (VECM is employed to empirically examine the interaction among the variables. The finding is that the five ASEAN stock market prices were found to be integrated with two cointegrating vectors during the sample period, and that accounting innovation analyses show the short run dynamic interactions among those stock markets. The important implication might be drawn from the finding is that portfolio diversification across the five ASEAN stock markets is unlikely to reduce investment risk due to high degree of financial integration of these markets. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Studi ini bertujuan meneliti interaksi dinamis antara indeks harga saham yang terdapat di lima negara ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailan yang terjadi selama masa krisis finansial Asia tahun 1997 dan periode sesudahnya. Dengan menggunakan data time series bulanan indeks harga saham dari kelima negara tersebut selama periode penelitian, suatu vector error correction model (VECM diaplikasikan untuk meneliti secara empiris interaksi dinamis yang terjadi diantara berbagai variabel yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini. Dari hasil penelitian ditemukan dua vektor kointegrasi (cointegration vector selama masa penelitian, dan analisa inovasi akuntansi (accounting innovation analyses menunjukan adanya interaksi dinamis jangka pendek diantara pasar saham tersebut. Implikasi penting yang mungkin perlu diperhatikan dari penemuan ini adalah bahwa diversifikasi portofolio saham pada lima pasar saham tersebut agaknya tidak akan secara signifikan mengurangi tingkat resiko investasi. Hal ini dikarenakan oleh tingginya

Le origini culturali della crisi

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ALESSANDRO RONCAGLIA

2010-01-01

Full Text Available After recalling the financial origin of the crisis and the persistent worldwide fragility of the financial sector, and after citing papers which before 2007 had pointed out the elements of systemic fragility of the US and world economy, the paper illustrates the cultural roots of the crisis, namely the economic views which favoured deregulation policies: the fallacy of the invisible hand of the market and a simplistic view of uncertainty, to which Keynesian uncertainty is opposed, with the consequent underevaluation of the risks of systemic instability.

EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT IN CASE OF ROMANIAN COMPANIES LISTED ON STOCK EXCHANGE

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Marton Noemi, Racz Timea Erzsebet

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The importance of estimation of a firm's probability of default increased significantly during the economic and financial crisis for financial institutions, which can be explained by the fact that the share of nonperforming loans increased in this period. The probability of default can be estimated with structural models, which have on base the methodology developed by Merton (1974, methodology used by Moody's Corporation (known as KMV Merton model. The aim of this study is to estimate the probability of default of companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange using this methodology. This approach was widely used in the literature by many researchers (i.e., Kealhofer and Kurbat (2000, Crosbie and Bohn (2002, Duffie and Wang (2004, Bharath and Shumway (2004, 2008. In Romania this methodology was empirically tested by Codirlaşu (2007, who estimated using Merton's methodology the probability of default of companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, respectively by Bobircă et al. (2008, where the probabilities of default were estimated in case of 42 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange for 2000-2008 time period. In this paper we used Merton's model, which assumes that a company defaults if the value of its assets is less than the promised dept repayment at time T. The process of estimating the probability of default starts from the following firm specific variables: the market value of the firm's assets, the share prices, the value of the liabilities and the risk-free rate. The analyzed period is 2003-2010, containing the economic and financial crisis period, too. Analyzing the financial statements of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, we determined the input parameters of the model and calculated the quarterly probabilities of default of each analyzed company. According to our results the probabilities of default have a reduced value in the majority of the cases.

Public Health Crisis Preparedness and Response in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hye-Young; Oh, Mi-Na; Park, Yong-Shik; Chu, Chaeshin; Son, Tae-Jong

2013-01-01

Since the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan according to the World Health Organization’s recommendation, the Republic of Korea has prepared and periodically evaluated the plan to respond to various public health crises including pandemic influenza. Korea has stockpiled 13,000,000 doses of antiviral drugs covering 26% of the Korean population and runs 519 isolated beds in 16 medical institutions. The division of public health crisis response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in charge of responding to public health crises caused by emerging infectious diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza human infection, and pandemic influenza. Its job description includes preparing for emerging infectious diseases, securing medical resources during a crisis, activating the emergency response during the crisis, and fortification of capabilities of public health personnel. It could evolve into a comprehensive national agency to deal with public health crisis based on the experience of previous national emerging infectious diseases. PMID:24298444

Measuring liquidity on stock market: impact on liquidity ratio

OpenAIRE

Siniša Bogdan; Suzana Bareša; Saša Ivanović

2012-01-01

The purpose – It is important to emphasize that liquidity on Croatian stock market is low, the purpose of this paper is to test empirically and find out which variables make crucial role in decision making process of investing in stocks. Design – This paper explores the impact of various liquidity variables on liquidity ratio since it is still insufficiently researched topic. Methodology –This research uses secondary and primary data available from Croatian stock market. Considering pri...

The Volatility of Market Risk In Viet Nam Listed Public Utilities Company Groups during and after the Financial Crisis 2007-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This study estimates market risk of total 45 listed companies in Viet Nam public utilities, natural gas and oil industry during the financial crisis period 2007-2009. Firstly, we found out in the research sample that there are 82% of firms, of total listed firms, with beta values lower than ( 1, meaning having stock returns fluctuating more than the market benchmark. Thirdly, among three (3 groups, the systemic risk in the electric power industry is the smallest, shown by estimated values of equity and asset beta mean, and asset beta variance in this industry is also the smallest. Finally, this paper generates some analytical outcomes that enable companies and government to have more evidence in establishing their policies in investments and in governance

Antiretroviral drug supply challenges in the era of scaling up ART in Malawi.

Science.gov (United States)

Schouten, Erik J; Jahn, Andreas; Ben-Smith, Anne; Makombe, Simon D; Harries, Anthony D; Aboagye-Nyame, Francis; Chimbwandira, Frank

2011-07-06

The number of people receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) has increased considerably in recent years and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. A major challenge is to maintain uninterrupted supplies of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and prevent stock outs. This article discusses issues around the management of ARVs and prevention of stock outs in Malawi, a low-income country with a high HIV/AIDS burden, and a weak procurement and supply chain management system. This system for ARVs, paid for by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and bypassing the government Central Medical Stores, is in place, using the United Nations Children's Fund's (UNICEF's) procurement services. The system, managed by a handful of people who spend limited time on supply management, is characterized by a centrally coordinated quantification based on verified data from all national ART clinics, parallel procurement through UNICEF, and direct distribution to ART clinics. The model worked well in the first years of the ART programme with a single first-line ARV regimen, but with more regimens becoming available (e.g., alternative first-line, second-line and paediatric regimens), it has become more difficult to administer. Managing supplies through a parallel system has the advantage that weaknesses in the national system have limited influence on the ARV procurement and supply chain management system. However, as the current system operates without a central warehouse and national buffer stock capacity, it diminishes the ability to prevent ARV stock outs. The process of ordering ARVs, from the time that estimates are made to the arrival of supplies in health facilities, takes approximately one year. Addressing the challenges involved in maintaining ARVs through an efficient procurement and supply chain management system that prevents ARV stock outs through the establishment of a dedicated procurement team, a central warehouse and/or national buffer stock is a

Stock Market Reactions to Fiscal Policy Shocks: Empirical Evidence ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study sets out to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examines if shocks in government expenditure and government debt affects stock market performance. The period of the study is from 1981-2012. Following the VAR estimates, the variance ...

Stock Market Reactions To Fiscal Policy Shocks: Empirical Evidence ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study sets out to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examines if shocks in government expenditure and government debt affects stock market performance. The period of the study is from 1981-2012. Following the VAR estimates, the variance ...

Collaborative Behavioral Management for Drug-Involved Parolees: Rationale and Design of the Step'n Out Study

Science.gov (United States)

Friedmann, Peter D.; Katz, Elizabeth C.; Rhodes, Anne G.; Taxman, Faye S.; O'Connell, Daniel J.; Frisman, Linda K.; Burdon, William M.; Fletcher, Bennett W.; Litt, Mark D.; Clarke, Jennifer; Martin, Steven S.

2008-01-01

This article describes the rationale, study design, and implementation for the Step'n Out study of the Criminal Justice Drug Abuse Treatment Studies. Step'n Out tests the relative effectiveness of collaborative behavioral management of drug-involved parolees. Collaborative behavioral management integrates the roles of parole officers and treatment…

Leadership in a (permanent) crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heifetz, Ronald; Grashow, Alexander; Linsky, Marty

2009-01-01

The current economic crisis is not just another rough spell. Today's mix of urgency, high stakes, and uncertainty will continue even after the recession ends. The immediate crisis--which we will get through with policy makers' expert technical adjustments--sets the stage for a sustained, or even permanent, crisis, a relentless series of challenges no one has encountered before. Instead of hunkering down and relying on their familiar expertise to deal with the sustained crisis, people in positions of authority--whether they are CEOs or managers heading up a company initiative--must practice what the authors call adaptive leadership. They must, of course, tackle the underlying causes of the crisis, but they must also simultaneously make the changes that will allow their organizations to thrive in turbulent environments. Adaptive leadership is an improvisational and experimental art, requiring some new practices. Like Julie Gilbert, who overcame internal resistance to reorient Best Buy toward female purchasers, adaptive leaders get things done to meet today's challenges and then modify those things to thrive in tomorrow's world. They also embrace disequilibrium, using turbulence as an opportunity to build crucial new capacities, as Paul Levy did to rescue Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center from a profound financial crisis. Finally, adaptive leaders, such as Egon Zehnder, the founder of an executive search firm, draw out the leadership skills that reside deep in the organization, recognizing the interdependence of all employees and mobilizing everyone to generate solutions.

On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jebabli, Ikram; Arouri, Mohamed; Teulon, Frédéric

2014-01-01

Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shock transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis and, namely after mid-2008, when stock markets become net transmitter of volatility shocks while crude oil becomes a net receiver. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance. - Highlights: • We study shock transmission between food, energy and financial markets. • We use a new time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. • There is volatility spillover from oil and stock markets to food. • Volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis, namely after mid-2008. • Augmenting a portfolio of foods with oil or stocks increases its performance

The Role of School Counsellors during the Cultural and Economic Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Rozman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the article we focus on the role of school counselling services in solving the cultural and economic crisis. In the theoretical part we first define the tasks, roles and meaning of school counselling service or of school counsellors, and the meaning of the terms cultural and economic crisis. We see social responsibility as a way out of the crisis. In the empirical part we then present the results of a survey research carried out on this topic among school counsellors in Slovenian basic and secondary schools. The intention of the study was to determine in what ways the school counsellors perceive this crisis, what knowledge they had in the field of work and in what ways they estimate the importance of individual school professional in solving the problem.

Price Earnings Ratio and Stock Return Analysis (Evidence from Liquidity 45 Stocks Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

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Liem Pei Fun

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio has been broadly used by analysts and investors for stock selection. Stocks with low PE ratio are perceived as having cheaper current price hence expected to generate higher return in subsequent period. This paper aims to examine predictability of stock return using PE Ratio based on historical relationship between PE Ratio and subsequent stock return. Particularly, it seeks to find whether stocks with high PE Ratio followed by low stocks return and on the contrary, stocks with low PE Ratio followed by high stocks return. Using stocks which are included as member of Liquidity 45 and observation period 2005-2010 as samples, results show that there is significance difference between low PE and high PE portfolio stock return in short term (holding period of 6 months but there is no significance difference between both portfolio stock return if they are hold for one, two, three, and four years. This research also finds that there is no significant relationship between stock return and (trailing PE Ratio which suggests that (trailing PE Ratio is not useful in estimating both short term and long term stock returns

Why is no financial crisis a dress rehearsal for the next? Exploring contagious heterogeneities across major Asian stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Dewandaru, Ginanjar; Masih, Rumi; Masih, A. Mansur M.

2015-02-01

Our study attempts to discover pure contagion or interdependence amongst the Asian equity markets (China, India, Taiwan and South Korea) due to the shocks stemming from eleven major crises around the world. We apply wavelet decomposition in both its discrete and continuous forms to unveil the multi-horizon nature of co-movement, volatility and lead-lag relationship. We find that most of the earlier shocks were transmitted via excessive linkages or pure contagion, while the recent subprime crisis appears to have resulted mostly in fundamentals-based contagion or interdependence. This assertion is based mainly on the deepening fundamental integration particularly after the Asian financial crisis period. We also find the relatively dominating role of China and South Korea after this crisis.

How Newspaper-Article-Events, Other Stock Market Indices, and the Foreign Currency Rate Affect the Philippine Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Percival S. Gabriel

2013-01-01

Eugene Fama in his “Efficient Market Hypothesis” introduced the term newspaper-article-event. The aim of this paper is to find out if newspaper-article-events which are presented and discussed in newspaper articles and which could collage to create an atmosphere of investment, together with the indices of other stock markets (treated as other events) and the performance of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar (considered as another event) could affect the closing Philippine Stock Market ...

Japanese Mutual Funds before and after the Crisis Outburst: A Style- and Performance-Analysis

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Stephanos Papadamou

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates how mutual funds performed in Japan before and after the 2008 outburst of the global financial crisis, that is during the extension of an extraordinary unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Style and performance analyses are employed in order to investigate whether active or passive management has been affected by unconventional times and to what extent. Evidence indicates that in four out of eight funds, asset selection presents a significant contribution to returns. The Selection Sharpe Ratios for sectoral and style analyses exhibit positive values added per unit of risk due to active management for the majority of our funds in the pre-Lehman default period. Nevertheless, none of them presents statistical significance according to the t-statistic. Moreover, over the post-Lehman default, only two out of eight funds achieved lower volatility levels and higher returns due to active management. A style drift to big capitalization stocks with low values of book to market ratio is to be held responsible for the outperformance. Overall, our findings imply that active management in a monetary easing environment does not add significant value to the mutual fund performance.

Learning Crisis Unit through Post-Crisis: Characteristics and Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Chebbi, Hela; Pündrich, Aline Pereira

2015-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to identify the characteristics that a crisis unit should have to achieve effective learning after crisis. Literature has identified many relations between learning organizations and crisis; yet, there is a dearth of research on specific studies about crisis units and their post-crisis learning features. Thus, this paper…

Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Øjvind

2016-01-01

This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

Hidden Wholesale: The drug diffusing capacity of online drug cryptomarkets

OpenAIRE

Aldridge, Judith A; Décary-Hétu, David

2016-01-01

Background: In spite of globalizing processes ‘offline’ retail drug markets remain localized and – in recent decades – typically ‘closed’, in which dealers sell primarily to known customers. We characterize drug cryptomarkets as ‘anonymous open’ marketplaces that allow the diffusion of drugs across locales. Where cryptomarket customers make stock-sourcing purchases for offline distribution, the cryptomarket may indirectly serve drug users who are not themselves cryptomarket customers, thereby...

Crítica y crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Fernández-Galiano

2011-05-01

Full Text Available

The crisis of criticism has been washed out by the crisis of the world. In his work "Blindness and Insight", Paul de Man -whose title we have borrowed for this text-asserts that "all true criticism occurs in the mode of crisis". He also tells us that the manipulation of the criticism as a discipline and within its structure has been so great that it is in fact in the midst of crisis. These words could be applied to architecture's discipline since the Modernism adopted after World War II. Today, four decades after the crisis of Modernism, it becomes evident that the brings forth the awareness that the edifice in threat of collapse is the planet itself. The task of architecture becomes the very dumb one of providing some order in the midst of disorder, and the task of criticism ends up being the even duller of offering support and encouragement for the constructions that hope to heat rather than to those that attempt to replicate the chaos of the world. Expressed in this manner, the task of criticism requires a humble simplicity in the analysis that it carries out. It Makes an effort to find the root of things, and demands a role of service from architects that has vanished. Architectural discipline blurred its ties with power during the first decades of the twentieth century, and established with social matters which has been disappearing in favor of spectacle, a quality dominant within contemporary society. Architectural discipline demands renovation: a rediscovering of humanity in the midst of adversity. The crisis of the world demands that criticism give voice to silence, and make visible both invisible cities and invisible architectures.

Crisis Communication Online

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Utz, Sonja; Schultz, Friederike; Glocka, Sandra

2013-01-01

Social media play in today's societies a fundamental role for the negotiation and dynamics of crises. However, classical crisis communication theories neglect the role of the medium and focus mainly on the interplay between crisis type and crisis communication strategy. Building on the recently...... developed “networked crisis communication model” we contrast effects of medium (Facebook vs. Twitter vs. online newspaper) and crisis type (intentional vs. victim) in an online experiment. Using the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster as crisis scenario, we show that medium effects are stronger than...... the effects of crisis type. Crisis communication via social media resulted in a higher reputation and less secondary crisis reactions such as boycotting the company than crisis communication in the newspaper. However, secondary crisis communication, e.g. talking about the crisis communication, was higher...

Today's fentanyl crisis: Prohibition's Iron Law, revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Beletsky, Leo; Davis, Corey S

2017-08-01

More than a decade in the making, America's opioid crisis has morphed from being driven by prescription drugs to one fuelled by heroin and, increasingly, fentanyl. Drawing on historical lessons of the era of National Alcohol Prohibition highlights the unintended, but predictable impact of supply-side interventions on the dynamics of illicit drug markets. Under the Iron Law of Prohibition, efforts to interrupt and suppress the illicit drug supply produce economic and logistical pressures favouring ever-more compact substitutes. This iatrogenic progression towards increasingly potent illicit drugs can be curtailed only through evidence-based harm reduction and demand reduction policies that acknowledge the structural determinants of health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis of scientific approaches to the concept of «crisis in the enterprises»

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K.S. Golovach

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of the research is to study the approaches to the definition of «crisis in the enterprises», the selection of their main types and generalization of the system for internal and external crises factors that influence the functioning of the enterprises. The article demonstrates the need for identification of crises types on the main features and characteristics for further considerate crisis management operations of the enterprises. Discussion among many scientists about the determination for the nature and components of the crisis are continued. Currently, among the experts there is no unified approach as to clarification of the nature of the crisis and of the contents of crisis management. Analyzing the system of factors, it was determined that external (exogenous and internal (endogenous factors of crisis were working systematically and reinforced the effect on the working of enterprise. The main point for carrying out proper and successful exit from the crisis enterprises is implementing the correct preventive crisis management, but for this it is necessary to be find out all reasons, characteristics and features, which are inherent for this type of crisis.

Assessing Cultural Competency in School Crisis Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Annandale, Neil O.; Heath, Melissa Allen; Dean, Brenda; Kemple, Ana; Takino, Yozo

2011-01-01

This study reviewed school-based crisis planning resources and guidelines provided by 40 state departments of education and offices of safe and drug-free schools. Content was examined for indications of cultural competency. The most frequently reported topics included: (a) assisting students with mental and physical disabilities, (b) tapping into…

THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVING THE TECHNICAL STATE OF ROLLING STOCK ON THE RAILWAYS OF UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. V. Ponomarenko

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose. One of the main conditions of the effective and high-quality organization of rail hauling is availability of modern rolling stock. However, the analysis of technical condition confirms its considerable moral and physical deterioration. The main purpose of the article is search of possible ways of improvement of technical condition of the existing car fleet on the railroads of Ukraine. Methodology. The current state of a rail transport not fully meets the modern requirements. For the last decades updating of fixed assets has been provided generally at the expense of own means of the railroads and satisfied the need for capital investments only for 5-6 percent. At the same time, actually since declaration of independence of Ukraine the price growth rates for the products consumed by the railroads exceeded the fare growth rates that did not allow to update in necessary amount and to improve technical condition of the rolling stock. Findings. The article presents the analysis of freight rolling stock of Ukrainian Railways, which showed unsatisfactory condition of the cars. The railway industry today works on the old principles, which do not correspond to the modern world trends in organization of work of railway transport, contribute to the inefficiency of its functioning and impede further development, constraining the inflow of investment to this industry, hamper cooperation with private companies. Insufficient funding and imperfect system of repair and maintenance inhibit the development and reduce the competitiveness of railway transport of Ukraine. However, the implementation of strategic directions of development of the transport sector, a review of the above constraints and using the experience of advanced countries will steer the rail transport out of the crisis. Originality. The authors presented comprehensive consideration of issues to improve the car maintenance system while extending the life of their operation. Practical value

THE HUNGARIAN CRISIS: AN AUSTRIAN SCHOOL EXPLANATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andras Toth

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The Hungarian model was heralded as one of the most successful post-socialist way of integration into the globalised world economy and European economic area in the nineties. Currently, Hungary is suffering from a full-blown crisis 1996 onwards. Increasingly large number of Hungarians is losing their faith in political parties, institutions, democracy and in market economy. The government, elected in 2010 by supermajority and still enjoying a broad support despite the deepening recession, condemns the development path taken after 1989 and openly rejects the wrong model of the last 20 years. The government intends to build a new economic model following a model, which one can call a model of economic nationalism as the only way out of the crisis. The paper intends to portray, through the case of Hungary, how economy and politics is interconnected, and why political elites are choosing a credit fuelled development path. The paper intends to portray how a credit fuelled growth was induced by politics and ended up in tears. Moreover, the paper describes the consequences of pro-etatist shift in the public sentiment due to the alleged “market-failure”, which was in reality a crisis, at first place, created for political purposes by political means. This article, based on the Austrian business cycle theory, argues that the tragedy of Hungary was that it went through a government inspired spending binge in the first half of the 2000s. The deficit spending of the government was accompanied by the expansion of credit by the commercial banks, mostly denominated in Swiss francs. The combined effect of deficit spending and credit expansion was the build-up of debt and loss of cost competitiveness. The 2008 crisis ended the credit fuelled development path and has started the long and painful period of deleveraging crisis. On the other hand, the Hungarian crisis is a post-Keynesian crisis. It had broken out when the state was already heavily indebted and

Effects of selling public intervention stocks of skimmed milk powder

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jongeneel, Roel; Silvis, Huib; Verhoog, David; Daatselaar, Co

2018-01-01

At the request of the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, this report analyses the potential market impacts and budgetary effects of different strategies of selling EU public intervention stocks of skimmed milk powder
(SMP). A gradual phasing out of the EU's SMP stocks over

Singapore in Its Worst Recession for Years. The Effects of the Current Economic Crisis on the City-State’s Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rolf Jordan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the current economic downturn, Singapore has experienced one of its most severe recessions since independence. The financial crisis, which caused a fall in prices at most of the world’s leading stock exchanges and a sharp decline in industrial production, has also had a negative impact on the city-state’s export-dependent economy. The analysis outlines the economic downturn and the decline of Singapore’s export economy since the beginning of the crisis in late 2008. Central to the analysis are questions regarding the social consequences of the current economic crisis and the amount of losses Singapore’s state-owned holding companies, Temasek and GIC, experienced when some of the world’s biggest investment banks, such as Merrill Lynch, went into bankruptcy.

TYPES OF EXPERIENCING THE CRISIS OF TRANSITION TO ADULTHOOD

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Nadejda Valeryevna Sivrikova

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The research presents a typology of living through the crisis of transition to adulthood. On the basis of cluster analysis of data, received by means of normative crisis symptoms checklist , semantic differential, PIL test (by D.A.Leontiev, the questionnaire of terminal valuesand “Life satisfaction” method (by N.N.Melnikov, three types of living through the normative crisis of transition to adulthood were distinguished: optimal, anxiodepressive and defensive. The analysis of research’s results allows to set out the ways of psychological follow-up of a person in the crisis of transition to adulthood depending on individual peculiarities.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-8-9

Power and Changing Modes of Governance in the Euro Crisis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carstensen, Martin B.; Schmidt, Vivien

2017-01-01

Which European Union actors are most powerful in the governance of the euro crisis? The euro crisis has reignited the classic debate between intergovernmentalists, who tend to stress the coercive power of dominant member states in the European Council, and supranationalists, who maintain that thr......Which European Union actors are most powerful in the governance of the euro crisis? The euro crisis has reignited the classic debate between intergovernmentalists, who tend to stress the coercive power of dominant member states in the European Council, and supranationalists, who maintain...... that through the use of institutional power, the Commission, and the European Central Bank turned out the “winners” of the crisis. This article argues that euro crisis governance is best understood not just in terms of one form of power but instead as evolving through different constellations of coercive...

How do Australian news media depict illicit drug issues? An analysis of print media reporting across and between illicit drugs, 2003-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Caitlin Elizabeth; Lancaster, Kari; Spicer, Bridget

2011-07-01

Media reporting on illicit issues has been frequently criticised for being sensationalised, biased and narrow. Yet, there have been few broad and systematic analyses of the nature of reporting. Using a large sample and methods commonly adopted in media communications analysis this paper sought to identify the dominant media portrayals used to denote illicit drugs in Australian newspapers and to compare and contrast portrayals across drug types. A retrospective content analysis of Australian print media was carried out over the period 2003-2008 from a sample comprised of 11 newspapers. Articles that contained one or more mention of five different drugs (or derivatives) were identified: cannabis, amphetamines, ecstasy, cocaine and heroin. A sub-sample of 4397 articles was selected for media content analysis (with 2045 selected for full content analysis) and a large number of text elements coded for each. Key elements included topic, explicit or implicit messages about the consequences of drugs/use and three value dimensions: overall tone, whether drugs were portrayed as a crisis issue and moral evaluations of drugs/use. The dominant media portrayals depicted law enforcement or criminal justice action (55%), but most articles were reported in a neutral manner, in the absence of crisis framings. Portrayals differed between drugs, with some containing more narrow frames and more explicit moral evaluations than others. For example, heroin was disproportionately framed as a drug that will lead to legal problems. In contrast, ecstasy and cocaine were much more likely to emphasise health and social problems. Media reporting on illicit drugs is heavily distorted towards crime and deviance framings, but may be less overtly sensationalised, biased and narrowly framed than previously suggested. This is not to suggest there is no sensationalism or imbalance, but this appears more associated with particular drug types and episodes of heightened public concern. Copyright © 2011

Analysis of Economic and Organizational Management Strategies Applied in Anti-Crisis

OpenAIRE

Nelu Mocanu; Mihai-Silviu Pocora

2011-01-01

Industrial enterprise instability situation in crisis conditions emphasizes the need to process longterm forecasts on the development and decision-making activity to stabilize the situation. This leads to anticrisis strategies and mechanisms that allow organizations to ensure balance in crisis. In carrying out anti-crisis program of industrial enterprises it is necessary to act according to a previously established plan, based on scientific research and theoretical studies of practical applic...

Analysing English metaphors of the economic crisis

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Filippo-Enrico Cardini

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract - The present article reports the findings of an investigation into the metaphorical expressions adopted by English-language magazines to describe the latest economic/financial crisis. The corpus used for the investigation was about 100,000 words large, with texts taken from The Economist and from The International Economy. All the articles selected from these two magazines were published between Fall 2008 and Winter 2012. The main aim of the inquiry was to offer a more detailed and comprehensive classification of economic-crisis-metaphors than those proposed in previous research. In this respect, a total number of forty different types of such metaphors was identified. Alongside the theoretical classification, a quantitative analysis of the data was also carried out in order to find out which kinds of metaphorical expression are used most frequently. Results suggest that the economic/financial crisis is predominantly conceptualized in terms of something negative about a human being, about an object, and about a motion. In particular, viewing a state of economic/financial crisis as a damaged or destroyed object appears to be the most widely adopted metaphor. Results also suggest that different economics magazines can vary significantly in the amount of metaphorical language used.Keywords: metaphor, economic crisis, semantics, pragmatics, journalistic styles.  Sommario – Questo articolo riporta i risultati di una ricerca sulle metafore adottate da riviste in lingua inglese per descrivere la recente crisi economica e finanziaria. Il corpus utilizzato per l’indagine è stato di circa 100.000 parole, con testi reperiti dal The Economist e dal The International Economy. Tutti gli articoli selezionati da queste due riviste sono stati pubblicati tra l’autunno 2008 e l’inverno 2012. Lo scopo principale dell’indagine è stato quello di fornire una classificazione delle metafore della crisi economica più dettagliata ed esauriente di

Using the Expert Systems for Determining the Products Stored and the Products Taken Out of the Inventory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronica Grosu

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the products stored and theproducts taken out of the inventory represents one of the basicproblems of an economy in crisis. Not controlling thesephenomena as regards the entire economy can lead to blockingthe economic circuits and even to a financial blockage.Obtaining semi-finished products, finished products andresidual products generates a potential income for the economicunit included in the accountancy analysis through the account711 “Stocks variations” that has the role of an intermediaryincomes account considering the stage of the economic circuitsduring which the incomes assessments on are made. Thebalance of the account 711 “Stocks variation” is shown in theprofit and loss statement, at the corresponding column in theoperating revenues structure in order to calculate the “financialyear production”.Closing the financial year represents one of the mostimportant moments of the activities that are performed by thefinancial-accountancy department. This is the basic reason fordeveloping some expert systems that would assist the analysiswork of the patrimonial statement and the obtaining ofinformation as regards the policy of the economic unitconcerning the level of products inventory resulting from theoperating activity. DESTOC is a prototype of the expert systemthat solves aspects related to the finished products, semifinishedand residual products. For the DESTOC prototype it isused the ESIEWIH generator specialized in building scenariosbasedknowledge bases. The DESTOC prototype has as purposedetermining the products stored and the products taken out ofthe inventory and it assumes a series of comments necessary tothe calculus manner.

Is there stock market efficiency in Malaysia?

OpenAIRE

Sui Suyin, Crystal

2007-01-01

This study is tests the Malaysian stock exchange, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) for any evidences of efficiency. The approach to carrying out the tests is discussed in careful detail whilst still considering the other aspects of the study. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is explained in detailed as well a discussion on the vast debate concerning the EMH, which includes literature that support and do not support the concept of an efficient market. This debate is situated vitally aroun...

A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2011-06-01

Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

Impact of global financial crisis on the economy of Ukraine

OpenAIRE

Turko, Vasyl; Mukan, Andriy

2013-01-01

Thе primary concern of this research is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on the economy of Ukraine. The principal result of this research is to identify the main causes and levers of that influence. The study proposes a new way out of economic crisis in Ukraine.

The future of financial reporting 2009 : a time of global financial crisis.

OpenAIRE

Jones, M.; Slack, R.E.

2009-01-01

A discussion paper based on the British Accounting Association Financial Accounting and Reporting Special Interest Group (FARSIG) Colloquium, 9 January 2009. The theme of the future of financial reporting at a time of global crisis was very topical. The papers and discussion, well captured in this summary, set out the main thoughts at that point, both on the role of accounting in the crisis and the impact of the crisis on accounting. The factors which provoked a crisis on that scale and t...

Drop-out from a drug treatment clinic and associated reasons.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoseinie, Leila; Gholami, Zhaleh; Shadloo, Behrang; Mokri, Azarakhsh; Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess drop-out rates and associated reasons among patients at the Iranian National Center for Addiction Studies (INCAS) clinic. In a one-year period (April 2014 to March 2015), all patients with drug dependence who had been referred for treatment and attended for a first assessment were included in this study (N=242). Those who received treatment were followed until March 2016. Survival analysis showed that 70.2% had dropped out from treatment. Log rank test showed that treatment drop-out rates differed between the different approaches used (P < 0.001), with the lowest slope inbuprenorphine maintenance treatment and the highest in the detoxification programme. Drop-out rates within the first three months was 62% (SE= 0.05) and 82.4% (SE=0.03) for opioids and stimulants dependence, respectively. Analyses were performed using SPSS (Version 21.0) and STATA software, (version 13.0). From the patients' perspective, motivational inconsistencies were considered as the main reason for not starting or leaving treatment. The findings of this study could give service providers a better grasp of drop-out rates and the associated reasons.

Drug Revolving Fund-Based

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: The Drug Revolving Fund (DRF) was instituted in 1996 in Oyo State to ensure sustainable drug availability at primary health care level with a seed stock of drugs supplied by the Petroleum Trust Fund. This was discontinued in 1999 and replaced in January 2000, with free health service, which involves ...

Determinants of Transactions Costs in the Brazilian Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Zoratto Sanvicente

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The Lesmond (2005 method for estimating transactions costs, based on a limited-dependent variable model, is used in order to test for the significance of plausible explanations for cross sectional cost differences. Variables such as liquidity, volatility, firm size, quality of corporate governance and participation in ADR programs are considered, in addition to the possible impact of the 2008 crisis. Daily data for 1999-2009 are used, covering at least 250 securities each year. The average total transaction cost declined from 2.95% in 1999 to 1.22% in 2009. Stock volatility and quality of corporate governance appear to be the most relevant factors associated with the measure of transactions cost.

The Dutch "Crisis and Recovery Act": Economic recovery and legal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In the Netherlands, the 2010 Crisis and Recovery Act aims at speeding up decisionmaking on a wide variety of activities, hoping that after the financial and economic crisis has passed, development projects can immediately be carried out without any delay caused by legal procedures in court or elsewhere. The Act meets ...

Drug crazy: how we got into this mess and how we can get out

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gray, Mike

1998-01-01

... and persuasively, and deserves a hearing." -Kirkus Reviews Over the last fifteen years, American taxpayers have laid out over $300 billion to wage the war on drugs-three times what it cost to put a man on the moon. Drug Crazy offers a scathing indictment of our expensive and hypocritical follies, which have essentially benefited only two classes o...

Financial crisis and crisis management in Sweden: Lessons for today

OpenAIRE

Jonung, Lars

2009-01-01

This paper gives an account of the Swedish financial crisis covering the period 1985-2000, dealing with financial deregulation and the boom in the late 1980s, the bust and the financial crisis in the early 1990s, the recovery from the crisis and the bank resolution policy adopted during the crisis. The paper focuses on three issues: the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, the policy response concerning bank resolution, and the applicability of the Swedish model of bank crisis man...

Mark Stock | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Stock Mark Stock Scientific Visualization Specialist Mark.Stock@nrel.gov | 303-275-4174 Dr. Stock , virtual reality, parallel computing, and manipulation of large spatial data sets. As an artist, he creates . Stock built the SUNLIGHT artwork that is installed on the Webb Building in downtown Denver. In addition

Access to opioids: a global pain management crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Buitrago, Rosa

2013-03-01

The lack of availability of opioids in many countries has created a pain management crisis. Because the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs requires governments to report annual opioid statistics, there is a need for methods to calculate individual nations' opioid needs. Ways to address this need are discussed.

Public debt management before, during and after the crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Andabaka Badurina

2012-03-01

Full Text Available During the financial and economic crisis, the public debt ratio in the European Union increased significantly, and public debt management had to be carried out in a completely new and unfavorable environment. The authors of this paper explore the changes in public debt management during and after the crisis. They describe the way in which three members of the Union – the Netherlands, Ireland and Hungary – dealt with the challenge of government financing during the crisis. These three countries were chosen because they all had a comparatively welldeveloped public debt management system before the crisis, and also due to the fact that during the crisis those responsible for public debt management pursued a policy of active accommodation to current market circumstances. Therefore, these case studies can illustrate the capacity of public debt management to contribute to the prevention of a sovereign debt crisis. In the conclusion, the authors give an overview of public debt management in Croatia in the period of the crisis and compare it with public debt management in the three countries whose experiences are presented in the paper.

Liquidity ratios. A structural and dynamic analysis, during 2006-2012, of the companies having the business line in industry and construction, listed and traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange

OpenAIRE

Diana Elena VASIU; Nicolae BALTEȘ; Iulian Nicolae GHEORGHE

2015-01-01

Liquidity ratios are used to measure a company’s ability to pay short-term debt, assessing the amount of cash and cash equivalents that it has on the short term. Considering the companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange among the best performing, due to the high requirements imposed by a stock market, in this paper has been analyzed the way the financial crisis affected the liquidity of companies listed on BSE, acting in industry and construction domains.

Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Sornette, Didier; Woodard, Ryan

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage for billions of people. Heavy central bank interventions and government spending programs have been launched worldwide and especially in the USA and Europe, with the hope to unfreeze credit and bolster consumption. Here, we present evidence and articulate a general framework that allows one to diagnose the fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay and mutual reinforcement have led to an illusion of a "perpetual money machine" allowing financial institutions to extract wealth from an unsustainable artificial process. Taking stock of this diagnostic, we conclude that many of the interventions to address the so-called liquidity crisis and to encourage more consumption are ill-advised and even dangerous, given that precautionary reserves were not accumulated in the "good times" but that huge liabilities were. The most "interesting" present times constitute unique opportunities but also great challenges, for which we offer a few recommendations.

Crisis Communication and Management: Surviving a Public Relations Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Eramo, Eric M.

2009-01-01

Crisis management, or crisis communication, is never a good thing for a business to experience. It is, however, a public relations' professional moment to shine and put their honed skills to good use. A good crisis management plan is not only action during the crisis but preparation and reflection. Hiring a PR firm that deals with crisis…

The study of Thai stock market across the 2008 financial crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Kanjamapornkul, K.; Pinčák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

2016-11-01

The cohomology theory for financial market can allow us to deform Kolmogorov space of time series data over time period with the explicit definition of eight market states in grand unified theory. The anti-de Sitter space induced from a coupling behavior field among traders in case of a financial market crash acts like gravitational field in financial market spacetime. Under this hybrid mathematical superstructure, we redefine a behavior matrix by using Pauli matrix and modified Wilson loop for time series data. We use it to detect the 2008 financial market crash by using a degree of cohomology group of sphere over tensor field in correlation matrix over all possible dominated stocks underlying Thai SET50 Index Futures. The empirical analysis of financial tensor network was performed with the help of empirical mode decomposition and intrinsic time scale decomposition of correlation matrix and the calculation of closeness centrality of planar graph.

Global integration in times of crisis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Camilla

shock) from other subsidiaries downstream in the value chain. While in a comparative perspective multinational subsidiaries are found to perform relatively better than local firms that are integrated differently (arms' length) in global production networks (e.g. offshoring outsourcing). This paper tries...... to reconcile these findings by testing a number of hypothesis about global integration strategies in the context of the global financial crisis and how it affected exporting among multinational subsidiaries operating out of Turkey. Controlling for the impact that depreciations and exchange rate volatility has...... integration strategies throughout the course of the global financial crisis....

The therapeutic workplace to promote treatment engagement and drug abstinence in out-of-treatment injection drug users: a randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Holtyn, August F; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; DeFulio, Anthony; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur O; Strain, Eric C; Schwartz, Robert P; Leoutsakos, Jeannie-Marie S; Silverman, Kenneth

2014-11-01

Determine if employment-based reinforcement can increase methadone treatment engagement and drug abstinence in out-of-treatment injection drug users. This study was conducted from 2008 to 2012 in a therapeutic workplace in Baltimore, MD. After a 4-week induction, participants (N=98) could work and earn pay for 26 weeks and were randomly assigned to Work Reinforcement, Methadone & Work Reinforcement, and Abstinence, Methadone & Work Reinforcement conditions. Work Reinforcement participants had to work to earn pay. Methadone & Work Reinforcement and Abstinence, Methadone, & Work Reinforcement participants had to enroll in methadone treatment to work and maximize pay. Abstinence, Methadone, & Work Reinforcement participants had to provide opiate- and cocaine-negative urine samples to maximize pay. Most participants (92%) enrolled in methadone treatment during induction. Drug abstinence increased as a graded function of the addition of the methadone and abstinence contingencies. Abstinence, Methadone & Work Reinforcement participants provided significantly more urine samples negative for opiates (75% versus 54%) and cocaine (57% versus 32%) than Work Reinforcement participants. Methadone & Work Reinforcement participants provided significantly more cocaine-negative samples than Work Reinforcement participants (55% versus 32%). The therapeutic workplace can promote drug abstinence in out-of-treatment injection drug users. Clinical trial registration number: NCT01416584. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investor’s Sentiments and Stock Market Volatility: an empirical evidence from emerging stock market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mobeen Ur Rehman

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The concept of efficient market hypothesis has prevailed the financial markets for a long time which says that the prices of the securities reflect all available information. This approach was mainly followed by the rational investors but with the passage of time, the concept of behavioral finance emerged due to some of the major global financial crashes. This concept states that there are investors trading in the market making decisions on the basis of sentiments not on any fundamental information. Such class of traders is called the noise traders and they are mainly responsible for any disruption in the returns of the securities. In this paper we will try to find whether these sentiments of the investors affect the returns of the securities listed on the Karachi stock exchange. We will use the investor sentiment index that uses the six proxies the data on which has been collected mainly from the Karachi stock exchange. Volatility of the stock market returns will be calculated and regressed with the sentimental equation discussed above as the independent variable. This study will help us to find out the extent to which these sentiments influence the stock market returns in weak form efficient market and also it will help us to identify the presence of such irrational noise traders in our financial market.

Value at Risk on Composite Price Share Index Stock Data

Science.gov (United States)

Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

The financial servicest authority was declared Let’s Save Campaign on n commemoration of the World Savings Day that falls on this day, October 31, 2016. The activity was greeted enthusiastically by Indonesia Stock Exchange by taking out the slogan Let’s Save The Stocks. Stock is a form of investment that is expected to benefit in the future despite has risks. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method that can measure how much the risk of a financial investment. Composite Stock Price Indeks is the stock price index used by Indonesia Stock Exchange as stock volatility benchmarks in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) on closing price Composite Price Share Index Stock data on the period 20 September 2016 until 20 September 2017. Box-Pierce test results p value=0.9528 which is greater than a, that shows homoskedasticity. Value at Risk (VaR) with Variance Covariance Method is Rp.3.054.916,07 which means with 99% confindence interval someone who invests Rp.100.000.000,00 will get Rp.3.054.916,07 as a maximum loss.

Multifractal property of Chinese stock market in the CSI 800 index based on MF-DFA approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Huijian; Zhang, Weiguo

2018-01-01

CSI 800 index consists of CSI 500 index and CSI 300 index, aiming to reflect the performance of stocks with large, mid and small size of China A share market. In this paper we analyze the multifractal structure of Chinese stock market in the CSI 800 index based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. We find that the fluctuation of the closing logarithmic returns have multifractal properties, the shape and width of multifractal spectrum are depended on the weighing order q. More interestingly, we observe a bigger market crash in June-August 2015 than the one in 2008 based on the local Hurst exponents. The result provides important information for further study on dynamic mechanism of return fluctuation and whether it would trigger a new financial crisis.

The Geometric Phase of Stock Trading.

Science.gov (United States)

Altafini, Claudio

2016-01-01

Geometric phases describe how in a continuous-time dynamical system the displacement of a variable (called phase variable) can be related to other variables (shape variables) undergoing a cyclic motion, according to an area rule. The aim of this paper is to show that geometric phases can exist also for discrete-time systems, and even when the cycles in shape space have zero area. A context in which this principle can be applied is stock trading. A zero-area cycle in shape space represents the type of trading operations normally carried out by high-frequency traders (entering and exiting a position on a fast time-scale), while the phase variable represents the cash balance of a trader. Under the assumption that trading impacts stock prices, even zero-area cyclic trading operations can induce geometric phases, i.e., profits or losses, without affecting the stock quote.

COVARIANCE STABILITY AND THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE IMPACT IN THE PORTFOLIO OF THE 10 BIGGEST COMPANIES IN BM&FBOVESPA BETWEEN 2004 E 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leticia Naomi Ono Maeda

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study's purpose is to analyse the covariance between the ten biggest participants of the BM&FBovespa stock market to test the influence of the instability in the covariance between assets to the structure of a portfolio of investments of a portfolio composed by this assets. To acomplish that, we check the covariances between the daily returns of the 10 selected stocks before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The procedure of this research includes: (1 collection of returns of the selected stocks between 2004 and 2012; (2 the composition of the classical portfolio theory proposed by Markowitz(1952; and (3 the measurement of the effect of the unstable covariance between the 10 selected assets in the maintenance of the portfolio when controlling for return and risk preferences of a hipotetical investor. We find that asset correlations are impacted by the assets covariances that not stable in the whole time set for the study but are specialy sensitive in the financial crisis period. This means that both risk and return of the portfolio will change greatly if the weights are not recalculated from time to time. This suports the idea that portfolio theory might benefit from the development of stability weigthed techniques are developed.

The BIS and the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s

OpenAIRE

Piet Clement; Ivo Maes

2013-01-01

The Latin American debt crisis, which broke out in August 1982, was the first global financial crisis in the postwar period. While the crisis started in the "periphery", it constituted a threat to the "core" of the world economy, as the banking system was under severe pressure. Alongside the IMF, the BIS played an important role in coordinating the international response to the crisis. Moreover, a lot of work at the BIS in the second half of the 1970s had aimed at restraining the debt build-u...

Redistributing Stock in Library Systems with a Depot

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Heide, Gerlach; Roodbergen, Kees Jan; van Foreest, Nicky

Public library organizations often utilize depots for carrying out shipments to libraries in case of stock-outs and for storing low demand rental items at low cost. Similar systems may be employed by rental companies for other rental products such as tools, DVDs, and jewelry. Since shipments deplete

Contagion and Dynamic Correlation of the Main European Stock Index Futures Markets: A Time-frequency Approach

OpenAIRE

Tiberiu Albulescu , Claudiu; Goyeau , Daniel; Tiwari , Aviral ,

2015-01-01

International audience; In this paper, we examine the financial contagion and dynamic correlation between three European stock index futures, namely FTSE 100, DAX 30 and CAC 40. For this purpose we resort to a continuous wavelet transform framework and we cover the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis period. More precisely, we analyze the power spectrum of the series, the wavelet coherency and the average dynamic correlation before and after turbulence episodes occurred after the outburst ...

Substandard drugs: a potential crisis for public health

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Atholl; Holt, David W

2014-01-01

Poor-quality medicines present a serious public health problem, particularly in emerging economies and developing countries, and may have a significant impact on the national clinical and economic burden. Attention has largely focused on the increasing availability of deliberately falsified drugs, but substandard medicines are also reaching patients because of poor manufacturing and quality-control practices in the production of genuine drugs (either branded or generic). Substandard medicines are widespread and represent a threat to health because they can inadvertently lead to healthcare failures, such as antibiotic resistance and the spread of disease within a community, as well as death or additional illness in individuals. This article reviews the different aspects of substandard drug formulation that can occur (for example, pharmacological variability between drug batches or between generic and originator drugs, incorrect drug quantity and presence of impurities). The possible means of addressing substandard manufacturing practices are also discussed. A concerted effort is required on the part of governments, drug manufacturers, charities and healthcare providers to ensure that only drugs of acceptable quality reach the patient. PMID:24286459

School Security and Crisis Preparedness: Make It Your Business.

Science.gov (United States)

Trump, Kenneth S.

1999-01-01

The top five security risks in today's schools include aggressive behavior, weapons possession or use, drug trafficking, gangs, and "stranger danger." Home-made bomb threats are common. This article also discusses security system costs, risk-reduction frameworks, security assessments, crisis-preparedness guidelines, and security-related…

Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

OpenAIRE

Irshad Hira

2017-01-01

This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis: The Case of a Market with Consistent Losses Ever Since

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hadeel Yaseen

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Following the 2008 global financial crisis, and in common with many stock markets around the world, the Amman Securities Exchange (ASE experienced some heavy losses. However, what makes the Jordanian market probably different is its inability to recover. The weighted price index fell from 7519.3 points in 2007 to 5520.1 points in 2009, to 4593.9 points in 2012, and to 4336.7 points by the end of 2013 respectively. With a statutory minimum tick which is equal to one pence, this observation has some serious implications to the liquidity cost that prevails in the Jordanian capital market, and the cost of financing listed firms. The primary aim of this research paper is to examine the impact of the stock market crash in Jordan on liquidity cost. Based on a total number of 108 listed stocks and daily data during the years 2007 and 2009, the empirical results indicate that liquidity cost on the Jordanian capital market is high. In addition, the results show that the 2009 stock market crash has led to a substantial increase in liquidity cost. In other words, the market must consider a number of remedial measures to improve its’ operational efficiency.

SERVICES IN GORJ COUNTY IN ECONOMIC CRISIS SITUATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RĂBONTU CECILIA IRINA

2011-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a synthetic analysis of the evolution of the tertiary sector in Gorj county under the pressure of the economic crisis that is felt now more than ever, the tertiary sector whos activities resulted in extremely diverse and constantly expanding services in our county as well. Like other regions of Romania, Gorj county is facing a new situation: after the period 2001-2008 when there has been growth, started a period marked by crisis, outcome of the effect of economic and financial crisis that broke out in the U.S. in October 2008. The economic crisis raises even more problems further enhancing poverty due to lower employment, as well as the decline in purchasing power especially among low-income population, under the impact of inflation and restrictive policies in wages, issues that are consequential to the stage of development of services in Gorj County.

Interventions for treating painful sickle cell crisis during pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Martí-Carvajal, Arturo J; Peña-Martí, Guiomar E; Comunián-Carrasco, Gabriella; Martí-Peña, Arturo J

2009-01-21

Sickle cell disease is a group of genetic haemoglobin disorders. All over the world, about 300,000 children with these disorders are born each year. Acute sickle cell pain episodes are the most common cause of hospitalisation. Pregnancy in women with sickle cell disease is associated with an increased incidence of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. The painful crisis is a severe complication of this illness, and it requires several interventions: packed red cell transfusion, fluid replacement therapy, analgesic drugs, oxygen therapy and steroids; but the approach is not standardised. To assess the effectiveness and safety of different regimens of packed red cell transfusion, oxygen therapy, fluid replacement therapy, analgesic drugs, and steroids for the treatment of painful sickle cell crisis during pregnancy. We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (December 2007), the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Trials Register (October 2007), LILACS database (1982 to December 2007) and the following web sites: ClinicalTrials.gov (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov) (December 5, 2007); Current Controlled Trials (http://controlled-trials.com/) (December 5, 2007), and Sistema de Información Esencial en Terapéutica y Salud (http://www.icf.uab.es/informacion/Papyrus/sietes.asp) (December 1, 2007). We also handsearched the European Haematology Association conference (June 2007), the American Society of Hematology conference (December 2007) and reference lists of all retrieved articles. We intended to include randomised clinical trials. We intended to summarise data by standard Cochrane Collaboration methodologies. We could not find any randomised clinical trials on interventions (packed red cell transfusion, oxygen therapy, fluid replacement therapy, analgesic drugs, and steroids) for the treatment of painful sickle cell crisis during pregnancy. This review found no randomised clinical trials on the safety and

Tick size and stock returns

Science.gov (United States)

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Töyli, Juuso; Kaski, Kimmo

2009-02-01

Tick size is an important aspect of the micro-structural level organization of financial markets. It is the smallest institutionally allowed price increment, has a direct bearing on the bid-ask spread, influences the strategy of trading order placement in electronic markets, affects the price formation mechanism, and appears to be related to the long-term memory of volatility clustering. In this paper we investigate the impact of tick size on stock returns. We start with a simple simulation to demonstrate how continuous returns become distorted after confining the price to a discrete grid governed by the tick size. We then move on to a novel experimental set-up that combines decimalization pilot programs and cross-listed stocks in New York and Toronto. This allows us to observe a set of stocks traded simultaneously under two different ticks while holding all security-specific characteristics fixed. We then study the normality of the return distributions and carry out fits to the chosen distribution models. Our empirical findings are somewhat mixed and in some cases appear to challenge the simulation results.

State-Space Estimation of Soil Organic Carbon Stock

Science.gov (United States)

Ogunwole, Joshua O.; Timm, Luis C.; Obidike-Ugwu, Evelyn O.; Gabriels, Donald M.

2014-04-01

Understanding soil spatial variability and identifying soil parameters most determinant to soil organic carbon stock is pivotal to precision in ecological modelling, prediction, estimation and management of soil within a landscape. This study investigates and describes field soil variability and its structural pattern for agricultural management decisions. The main aim was to relate variation in soil organic carbon stock to soil properties and to estimate soil organic carbon stock from the soil properties. A transect sampling of 100 points at 3 m intervals was carried out. Soils were sampled and analyzed for soil organic carbon and other selected soil properties along with determination of dry aggregate and water-stable aggregate fractions. Principal component analysis, geostatistics, and state-space analysis were conducted on the analyzed soil properties. The first three principal components explained 53.2% of the total variation; Principal Component 1 was dominated by soil exchange complex and dry sieved macroaggregates clusters. Exponential semivariogram model described the structure of soil organic carbon stock with a strong dependence indicating that soil organic carbon values were correlated up to 10.8m.Neighbouring values of soil organic carbon stock, all waterstable aggregate fractions, and dithionite and pyrophosphate iron gave reliable estimate of soil organic carbon stock by state-space.

Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irshad Hira

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

Perbandingan Stock Market Crash 1987 : Dan Stock Market Crash 1997

OpenAIRE

Indridewi Atmadjaja, Yovita Vivianty

1999-01-01

Stock market crash refers to the condition, which is marked with the large dropping of stock Market price index. Historically, stock market crash has happened three times, namely in 1929, 1987 and 1997. This paper will discuss the causes of 1987's and 1997's stock market Crash and the similarities and the differences between 1987's and 1997's stock market crash. The structure of the paper is as follows. The paper starts with the introduction. The second Section briefly explains the causes of ...

Wundt contested: The first crisis declaration in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mülberger, Annette

2012-06-01

When reflecting on the history and the present situation of their field, psychologists have often seen their discipline as being in a critical state. The first author to warn of a crisis was, in 1897, the now scarcely known philosopher Rudolf Willy. He saw a crisis in psychology resulting, firstly, from a profuse branching out of psychology. Adopting a radical empiriocriticist point of view, he, secondly, made the metaphysical stance of scholars like Wilhelm Wundt responsible for the crisis. Meanwhile, the priest Constantin Gutberlet responded to the claim of crisis arguing, on the contrary, that the crisis resulted from research that was empirical only. Throughout the discipline psychologists felt troubled by a widespread sense of fragmentation in the field. I will argue that this is due to psychology's early social success and popularization in modern society. Moreover the paper shows that the first declaration of crisis emerged at a time when a discussion of fundamentals was already underway between Wundt and the empiriocriticist Richard Avenarius. The present historical research reveals the depth of the confrontation between Wundt and Willy, entailing a clash of two worldviews that embrace psychological, epistemological, and political aspects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stock Price Volatility and Role of Dividend Policy: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Shah, Syed Akif; Noreen, Umara

2016-01-01

Despite years of empirical research, the linkage between dividend policy and stock price volatility remains controversial among the researchers and scholars. This research endeavors to figure out the relationship between stock price volatility and dividend policy of listed companies in Pakistan. A sample of fifty firms, based upon consistent dividend paying behavior, listed on Karachi Stock Exchange has been selected from non-financial sectors, for the period of 2005 to 2012. Multiple regress...

Crisis? What crisis? How European professionals handle crises and crisis communication

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoeven, P.; Tench, R.; Zerfass, A.; Moreno, A.; Verčič, D.

2014-01-01

A broad study in 43 European countries shows that 70% of communication professionals encounter at least one crisis a year, mostly institutional, related to the performance of the organization or a crisis in management or leadership. Organizational response and image restoration approaches are mainly

Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jay Chok

Full Text Available In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

Critical heat flux, post dry-out and their augmentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Celata, G.P.; Mariani, A. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). Dipt. Energia

1999-07-01

The report shows the state of art review on the critical heat flux and the post-dryout heat transfer. The work, which is a merge of original researches carried out at the Institute of Thermal Fluid Dynamic of ENEA (National Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment) and a thorough review of the recent literature, is divided in four chapters: critical heat flux in subcooled flow boiling; critical heat flux in saturated flow boiling; post-dryout heat transfer; enhancement of critical heat flux and post-dryout heat transfer. [Italian] Si passa in rassegna lo stato dell'arte sulla crisi termica e sullo scambio termico post-crisi, che compendia studi tradizionali condotti dall'ENEA. Il rapporto e' suddiviso in quattro parti: crisi termica in ebollizione sottoraffreddata; crisi termica in ebollizione satura; scambio termico dopo la crisi termica; incremento del flusso termico critico e dello scambio termico post-crisi.

Critical heat flux, post dry-out and their augmentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Celata, G P; Mariani, A [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). Dipt. Energia

1999-07-01

The report shows the state of art review on the critical heat flux and the post-dryout heat transfer. The work, which is a merge of original researches carried out at the Institute of Thermal Fluid Dynamic of ENEA (National Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment) and a thorough review of the recent literature, is divided in four chapters: critical heat flux in subcooled flow boiling; critical heat flux in saturated flow boiling; post-dryout heat transfer; enhancement of critical heat flux and post-dryout heat transfer. [Italian] Si passa in rassegna lo stato dell'arte sulla crisi termica e sullo scambio termico post-crisi, che compendia studi tradizionali condotti dall'ENEA. Il rapporto e' suddiviso in quattro parti: crisi termica in ebollizione sottoraffreddata; crisi termica in ebollizione satura; scambio termico dopo la crisi termica; incremento del flusso termico critico e dello scambio termico post-crisi.

Dutch guideline for the management of hypertensive crisis -- 2010 revision.

Science.gov (United States)

van den Born, B J H; Beutler, J J; Gaillard, C A J M; de Gooijer, A; van den Meiracker, A H; Kroon, A A

2011-05-01

Hypertensive crises are divided into hypertensive urgencies and emergencies. Together they form a heterogeneous group of acute hypertensive disorders depending on the presence or type of target organs involved. Despite better treatment options for hypertension, hypertensive crisis and its associated complications remain relatively common. In the Netherlands the number of patients starting renal replacement therapy because of 'malignant hypertension' has increased in the past two decades. In 2003, the first Dutch guideline on hypertensive crisis was released to allow a standardised evidence-based approach for patients presenting with a hypertensive crisis. In this paper we give an overview of the current management of hypertensive crisis and discuss several important changes incorporated in the 2010 revision. These changes include a modification in terminology replacing 'malignant hypertension' with 'hypertensive crisis with retinopathy and reclassification of hypertensive crisis with retinopathy under hypertensive emergencies instead of urgencies. With regard to the treatment of hypertensive emergencies, nicardipine instead of nitroprusside or labetalol is favoured for the management of perioperative hypertension, whereas labetalol has become the drug of choice for the treatment of hypertension associated with pre-eclampsia. For the treatment of hypertensive urgencies, oral administration of nifedipine retard instead of captopril is recommended as first-line therapy. In addition, a section on the management of hypertensive emergencies according to the type of target organ involved has been added. Efforts to increase the awareness and treatment of hypertension in the population at large may lower the incidence of hypertensive crisis and its complications.

Crisis?: What crisis?: currency vs. banking in the financial crisis of 1931

OpenAIRE

Albrecht Ritschl; Samad Salferaz

2010-01-01

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through the Gold Standard played only a minor role in causing and propagating the crisis, while financial distress was important. We also find evidence of crisis propagation from Germany to the U.S. via the ban...

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Hou, Ai Jun

We use Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s (2016) economic policy uncertainty indices in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market volatility and correlation, primarily for the US and UK. Long-run US–UK stock market correlation depends positively on US...... economic policy uncertainty shocks. The dependence is asymmetric, with only positive shocks - increasing uncertainty - being of importance. The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks, while the UK long-run stock market...... volatility depends significantly on both. Allowing for US economic policy uncertainty shocks improves the out-of-sample forecasting of US–UK stock market correlation and enhances portfolio performance. Similar results apply to the long-run correlation between the US and Canada, China, and Germany....

Crisis and Leadership Style Relationship in Entrepreneurs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurettin İbrahimoğlu

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Crises are inevitable features of today‟s businesses. As a result of pressures from the economic technological and social cultural environment brought by rapid change and the ongoing intense competition, it is not possible to think of a firm that is exempt from crisis. The instability in the economy and turbulent environments force the firms to seek more effective management styles. Hence, the crisis management becomes important. Historically the traits that a leader should have a for a better management of crisis were investigated and theories were set forth thereupon. One of the theories related to the topic is thesituational leadership theory which was built by Fiedler in 1970. Fiedler found that the task oriented leaders were more successful under unfavorable conditions. In this study which is carried out to see whether there is a difference between task-oriented and relationship oriented leaders in terms of their perceptions regarding the crisis, it was found that the task-oriented leaders have a more positive perception of crisis. No significant difference between taskorientated and relationship orientated managers was found regarding the interaction of the firm with its environment and attitudes and behaviors of top management. Factor analysis and t tests were used to reach these results

Crisis Thought

OpenAIRE

Morris, Edwin Kent

2016-01-01

Crisis thought is an idea that gives a name to and accounts for some of the problematics of the sign crisis in political, social, cultural, and economic discourse. Specifically, crisis thought is a discursive formation, a concept used loosely here to refer to an assemblage of signs such as anxiety or fear that evoke or invoke similar, but inaccurate connotations as crisis in political and everyday usage. The general question this study grapples with is why political, social, cultural, and eco...

Effective Comparison of Global Financial Crisis (2007 on Inflation of OPEC Countries and Selected Countries of G8

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Yazdan Naghdi

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This study has attempted to examine and compare the effects of 2007 financial crisis on inflation in OPEC countries and selected countries of G8, based on a panel data regression model during 2000-2010. It should be noted that the selected countries of G8 group are 5 industrial countries member of this group, including: America, Italy, Britain, France and Japan, that crisis has been seen faster in them than other countries. Growth economic variables (real sector of the economy, oil price and stock price index (i.e. financial market have been considered as affected shared variables of the financial crisis in both countries group. According to the obtained results, the only affected variable by the crisis in OPEC countries, is oil price which has positive and significant effect on inflation in the above mentioned countries so that one percent increase in oil price lead to about 0.08 percent increase on inflation, on the other hand, according to survey results there is no relationship between output and inflation in OPEC countries, so it reflects weak manufacturing structure sector (real sector of the economy in these countries

Social capital, trust, and firm performance: the value of corporate social responsibility during the financial crisis

OpenAIRE

Lins, K V; Servaes, H; Tamayo, A

2017-01-01

During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, firms with high social capital, measured as corporate social responsibility (CSR) intensity, had stock returns that were four to seven percentage points higher than firms with low social capital. High-CSR firms also experienced higher profitability, growth, and sales per employee relative to low-CSR firms, and they raised more debt. This evidence suggests that the trust between the firm and both its stakeholders and investors, built through investments i...

Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

2018-02-01

An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

Optimal Portfolio Selection in Ex Ante Stock Price Bubble and Furthermore Bubble Burst Scenario from Dhaka Stock Exchange with Relevance to Sharpe’s Single Index Model

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Javed Bin Kamal

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The paper aims at constructing an optimal portfolio by applying Sharpe’s single index model of capital asset pricing in different scenarios, one is ex ante stock price bubble scenario and stock price bubble and bubble burst is second scenario. Here we considered beginning of year 2010 as rise of stock price bubble in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Hence period from 2005 -2009 is considered as ex ante stock price bubble period. Using DSI (All share price index in Dhaka Stock Exchange as market index and considering daily indices for the March 2005 to December 2009 period, the proposed method formulates a unique cut off point (cut off rate of return and selects stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-free rate of return surpassing this cut-off point. Here, risk free rate considered to be 8.5% per annum (Treasury bill rate in 2009. Percentage of an investment in each of the selected stocks is then decided on the basis of respective weights assigned to each stock depending on respective ‘β’ value, stock movement variance representing unsystematic risk, return on stock and risk free return vis-à-vis the cut off rate of return. Interestingly, most of the stocks selected turned out to be bank stocks. Again we went for single index model applied to same stocks those made to the optimum portfolio in ex ante stock price bubble scenario considering data for the period of January 2010 to June 2012. We found that all stocks failed to make the pass Single Index Model criteria i.e. excess return over beta must be higher than the risk free rate. Here for the period of 2010 to 2012, the risk free rate considered to be 11.5 % per annum (Treasury bill rate during 2012.

Sales forecasting during the credit crisis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Udenio, M.

2010-01-01

The work contained herein concerns the influence of supply chain dynamics in the effects of the (ongoing) international credit crisis. This project was carried out within Royal DSM N.V, a dutch life sciences and performance materials company. During the second half of 2008, DSM sales plummeted;

Jakarta Islamic Index-L 45: Rate Financial Performance, Beta Stocks and Stock Price in Indonesian Stock Exchange

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Tajus Subqi

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This research had analyzed the effect of financial performance and stock beta (systematic risk towards stock price of eight listed companies in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII – LQ 45 for the time period of 2012-2014. The data was gathered by employing literature study and documentation of financial statements. Multiple regressions are used to measure the effect of independent variable towards dependent variable along with ttest and F test. The results based on overall test suggested that only ROE and NPM had opposite direction correlation with the stock price, meanwhile other variables had positive direction correlation. From partial test with 5% level of significance, only EPS and PER had significant effect on stock price while other variables had no effect.   Keywords: financial performance analysis, stock price, stock beta (systematic risk, Jakarta Islamic Index

Analysis on the Influence of Stock Index Futures on Chinese Stock Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

王钊

2014-01-01

As the first product of financial futures in China, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures is a symbol of the continual improvement and development of Chinese capital market system. So it would be bound to generate immeasurable influence on Chinese capital market and financial system. Starting from introducing the relevant summaries of stock index futures, this paper analyzes the influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in the international stock market;then, it analyzes influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in Chinese stock market, in order to propose some suggestions to the policies for developing Chinese stock index futures.

The Food Crisis and Food Security: Towards a New World Food Order?

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Christophe Golay

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The worst food crisis since 1974 broke out in 2007-08. Higher world market prices of food commodities (especially wheat, rice, soya and maize sparked an unprecedented increase in the number of hungry people. Despite moderately lower prices since the summer of 2008, the number of the hungry continued to rise in 2009. This food crisis has placed the fight against hunger on the international agenda. Since March 2008 governments UN agencies and many social movements have adopted positions on the causes of the crisis and the means to address it. Unfortunately, while these parties are trying to coordinate their activities and suggest new approaches, the old recipes for producing more food are often brought up. Contradictory proposals are made and the thought given to the causes underlying hunger and the food crisis (social, economic and political discrimination and exclusion has gone largely unheeded. The first Millennium Development Goal, which calls for cutting the percentage of hungry people by half by 2015, is clearly out of reach. But the food crisis might lead to a new world food order based on the three pillars of food assistance, food security and the right to food.

Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market

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Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the effect of fiscal and monetary policy on Indonesian Stock price as well as main sectors stock price such as agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial sector indexes. We consider the world oil price as a foreign variable that will influence domestic economy as in regular small open economy model. In this paper, we employ the Monte Carlo algorithm to Near-SVAR models (If some of the VAR equations have regressors not included in the others. We find that there is a positive stock price response to monetary policy shock both aggregated and sectoral stock price. In term of interaction between fiscal policy shock and stock market, we find that all sectors respond negative relationship. From this empirical finding, fiscal policy crowd out private sector activity in market, thus, its effect will be impotent in economy. We also provide the evidence that not only both policies are able to influence the stock price individually, but also the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy is important in explaining stock market performance.

Global Concept of Financial Institutional Transformation of Stock Exchange

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Burmaka Mykola

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is about the research of processes of global transformation of stock exchanges through the mechanisms of internationalization, corporate and network consolidation, and technology. Objective processes of internationalization in stock markets affected by financial globalization and arising global information resources create new challenges for stock exchanges that can be overcome by adequate development strategies. The growing competition between stock exchanges and new capital institutes requires stock exchanges to use modern exchange technologies, primarily innovative, in order to maintain liquidity and increase investment attractiveness. Have been analysed the newest tendencies and determinants of modern global financial institutional architecture construction, the leading role in which are starting to play new stock exchanges and stalk exchange platforms, formed in growing financial centres of the world. Have been identified he main components of international stock market restructurization in the process of financial globalization, one of the attributes of which turned out to be a certain fragmentation of markets and their universalization. Through the example of US and EU financial market modernization processes of the last decade have been analysed financial and legal mechanisms of the national and regional levels, which are designed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy at the postcrisis stage. Have been diagnosed international activity of stock exchanges through the quantity indexed of foreign companies in listing, volume of trade with foreign financial instruments, and participation of foreign investors in exchange trade. Have been offered and calculated indices of internationalization of the world’s leading stock market. Have been analysed consolidation processes of the leading stock exchanges and new electronic trading systems at the regional, meso-global and global levels, which resulted in formation of

Crisis Communication of Nuclear Regulatory Organisations: Towards global thinking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martell, Meritxell; Menendez, Susan; Calvo, Marina

2013-01-01

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Committee on Nuclear Regulatory Activities (CNRA) Working Group on Public Communication of Nuclear Regulatory Organisations (WGPC) organised the workshop 'Crisis communication: facing the challenges' on 9-10 May 2012 in Madrid to address the international dimension of the communicative responses to crises by assessing the experience of Nuclear Regulatory Organisations of the NEA member countries and their stakeholders. The CNRA/WGPC also prepared in 2011, before the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear accident occurred, a Road Map for Crisis Communication of Nuclear Regulatory Organisations which focused only on national aspects. This 'road map' had not considered the international dimension. CNRA mandated the WGPC to expand the Road Map so as to conclude the follow-up activity on crisis communication. The objective of the present document is to firstly, identify the key messages which can be extracted from three surveys carried out among the WGPC members after Fukushima-Daiichi's accident (Appendices II, III and IV), and incorporate them into the Road Map for Crisis Communication. Secondly, the good practices on public communication of NROs, which were presented during the OECD/NEA Workshop on Crisis Communication: Facing the Challenges, are reported. Following the structure of the road map for public communication responses during crisis included in the NEA report entitled 'Road Map for Crisis Communication of Nuclear Regulatory Organisations - National aspects', the good practices on communication before, during and after a crisis are provided. Overall, the emphasis of this report is on the international aspects of crisis communication, rather than the national dimension. (authors)

Marx, Keynes y la posibilidad de crisis Marx, Keynes and the Possibility of crisis

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Kenway Peter

1992-12-01

required in orden to carry it out. Keynes' theory of the effective demand asserts that the crisis occurs when the inflows and outflows of investment do not provide the sufficient aggregated demand to carry out the producto
According to the author, the common characteristic to both approaches in then, the attempt to build a new monetary theory of capitalistic production, in which the theory of possibility supplements that of effective pemand in the explanation of why money performs an operative role in the production process. In turn, the theory of effective demand supplements the theory of possibili ty to explain the demand level required to carry out the product between the various departments of the economy. Thus, in the analysis by Kenway, Marx and Keynes share the same area regarding the theory of a possibility of a crisis. The theory of  reality would be the subject for another analysis.

Monetary policy implementation and money demand instability during the financial crisis

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Svatopluk Kapounek

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The author focuses on the money endogeneity in the context of common monetary policy implementation in the euro area. The empirical analysis shows money demand function instability during the financial crisis. The instability is described by decrease in credit money creation and money velocity changes. The cointegration tests identifed long-run positive relationship between monetary aggregates and economic activity. Concurrently, the economic activity is treated to be weakly exogenous in the model.The conclusions are discussed with Postkeynesians’ assumption, that central banks cannot fix the stock of money in a country. The causality is directed from economic activity to money demand.

Crisis discussions in psychology--New historical and philosophical perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Sturm, Thomas; Mülberger, Annette

2012-06-01

In this introductory article, we provide a historical and philosophical framework for studying crisis discussions in psychology. We first trace the various meanings of crisis talk outside and inside of the sciences. We then turn to Kuhn's concept of crisis, which is mainly an analyst's category referring to severe clashes between theory and data. His view has also dominated many discussions on the status of psychology: Can it be considered a "mature" science, or are we dealing here with a pre- or multi-paradigmatic discipline? Against these Kuhnian perspectives, we point out that especially, but not only in psychology distinctive crisis declarations and debates have taken place since at least the late 19th century. In these, quite different usages of crisis talk have emerged, which can be determined by looking at (a) the content and (b) the dimensions of the declarations, as well as (c) the functions these declarations had for their authors. Thus, in psychology at least, 'crisis' has been a vigorous actor's category, occasionally having actual effects on the future course of research. While such crisis declarations need not be taken at face value, they nevertheless help to break the spell of Kuhnian analyses of psychology's history. They should inform ways in which the history and philosophy of psychology is studied further. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

School Crisis Management: A Model of Dynamic Responsiveness to Crisis Life Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, Yi-Hwa

2015-01-01

Purpose: This study aims to analyze a school's crisis management and explore emerging aspects of its response to a school crisis. Traditional linear modes of analysis often fail to address complex crisis situations. The present study applied a dynamic crisis life cycle model that draws on chaos and complexity theory to a crisis management case,…

Taxing Stock Options: Efficiency, Fairness and Revenue Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jack M. Mintz

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The federal Liberals and the NDP are right about this much: There is a more sensible way to tax the stock options that are granted as compensation by corporations than the approach the federal government takes now. But both parties are wrong about how much revenue an appropriate change in current tax policy will add to the treasury. Far from the half-billion dollars or more that both parties claim they will raise in federal tax revenue by changing the taxation of stock options, the appropriate reform will virtually raise no revenue. It could actually result in marginally lower tax revenue. As it stands, stock options are treated differently than salary and other forms of cash compensation when it comes to taxing an employee or director, in that they are subject to only half taxation, similar to capital gains. They are also treated differently than cash compensation for the corporation granting the options, in that they cannot be deducted from corporate income tax. The federal NDP and Liberals have both accepted the growing criticism, which only intensified in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, that the lower tax rate is an unfair tax break for those employees who receive stock options. Both parties have proposed to change that, leaving an exemption for startup companies only, with the NDP proposing full personal taxation for all stock options except for start-up companies and the Liberals proposing it for options-based compensation exceeding $100,000. Treating stock options the same as cash compensation would indeed be more tax efficient, reducing the distortionary effect that can influence company compensation packages to give more weight to stock options and less to cash than they might otherwise. But the only way to ensure that efficiency is by treating both the personal tax side of the benefit, and the corporate tax side of the benefit, in the same way as other employee compensation. That is, applying full taxation to the recipient

Stock price estimation using ensemble Kalman Filter square root method

Science.gov (United States)

Karya, D. F.; Katias, P.; Herlambang, T.

2018-04-01

Shares are securities as the possession or equity evidence of an individual or corporation over an enterprise, especially public companies whose activity is stock trading. Investment in stocks trading is most likely to be the option of investors as stocks trading offers attractive profits. In determining a choice of safe investment in the stocks, the investors require a way of assessing the stock prices to buy so as to help optimize their profits. An effective method of analysis which will reduce the risk the investors may bear is by predicting or estimating the stock price. Estimation is carried out as a problem sometimes can be solved by using previous information or data related or relevant to the problem. The contribution of this paper is that the estimates of stock prices in high, low, and close categorycan be utilized as investors’ consideration for decision making in investment. In this paper, stock price estimation was made by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root method (EnKF-SR) and Ensemble Kalman Filter method (EnKF). The simulation results showed that the resulted estimation by applying EnKF method was more accurate than that by the EnKF-SR, with an estimation error of about 0.2 % by EnKF and an estimation error of 2.6 % by EnKF-SR.

Presentation of the CEA's crisis national organization: coordination centre in case of crisis, crisis technical teams, intervention means, and so on

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pectorin, X.

2010-01-01

After having briefly recalled the existence of a legal framework for crisis management organisation, this report briefly describes how the CEA plans the crisis management. This management is based on the definition of critical scenarios, on the building up of a crisis management team, and on the elaboration of crisis management operational documents. It evokes the alert organisation and the triggering of crisis management. Then, it describes the CEA's national crisis organisation with its main crisis management structures, the role and the operation of the Crisis Coordination Centre (CCC, the decision body), the role and operation of the Central Crisis Technical Teams (ETC-C, Equipes Techniques de Crise Centrales), the role of field interveners (various rescue, protection, health care and technical teams) and of other additional intervention actors. It evokes the objectives of the various exercises which are organised every year at the internal, national or international level

Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

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Singh Amanjot

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

Employment-based abstinence reinforcement promotes opiate and cocaine abstinence in out-of-treatment injection drug users.

Science.gov (United States)

Holtyn, August F; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; DeFulio, Anthony; Sigurdsson, Sigurdur O; Strain, Eric C; Schwartz, Robert P; Silverman, Kenneth

2014-01-01

We examined the use of employment-based abstinence reinforcement in out-of-treatment injection drug users, in this secondary analysis of a previously reported trial. Participants (N = 33) could work in the therapeutic workplace, a model employment-based program for drug addiction, for 30 weeks and could earn approximately $10 per hr. During a 4-week induction, participants only had to work to earn pay. After induction, access to the workplace was contingent on enrollment in methadone treatment. After participants met the methadone contingency for 3 weeks, they had to provide opiate-negative urine samples to maintain maximum pay. After participants met those contingencies for 3 weeks, they had to provide opiate- and cocaine-negative urine samples to maintain maximum pay. The percentage of drug-negative urine samples remained stable until the abstinence reinforcement contingency for each drug was applied. The percentage of opiate- and cocaine-negative urine samples increased abruptly and significantly after the opiate- and cocaine-abstinence contingencies, respectively, were applied. These results demonstrate that the sequential administration of employment-based abstinence reinforcement can increase opiate and cocaine abstinence among out-of-treatment injection drug users. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Disrupting gatekeeping practices: Journalists’ source selection in times of crisis

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Toni G.L.A.; Verhoeven, Piet; Beentjes, Johannes W.J.; Vliegenthart, Rens

2016-01-01

As gatekeepers, journalists have the power to select the sources that get a voice in crisis coverage. The aim of this study is to find out how journalists select sources during a crisis. In a survey, journalists were asked how they assess the following sources during an organizational crisis: news agencies, an organization undergoing a crisis, and the general public. The sample consisted of 214 Dutch experienced journalists who at least once covered a crisis. Using structural equation modeling, sources’ likelihood of being included in the news was predicted using five source characteristics: credibility, knowledge, willingness, timeliness, and the relationship with the journalist. Findings indicated that during a crisis, news agencies are most likely to be included in the news, followed by the public, and finally the organization. The significance of the five source characteristics is dependent on source type. For example, to be used in the news, news agencies and organizations should be mainly evaluated as knowledgeable, whereas information from the public should be both credible and timely. In addition, organizations should not be seen as too willing or too eager to communicate. The findings imply that, during a crisis, journalists remain critical gatekeepers; however, they rely mainly on familiar sources. PMID:29278263

Disrupting gatekeeping practices: Journalists' source selection in times of crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Toni G L A; Verhoeven, Piet; Beentjes, Johannes W J; Vliegenthart, Rens

2017-10-01

As gatekeepers, journalists have the power to select the sources that get a voice in crisis coverage. The aim of this study is to find out how journalists select sources during a crisis. In a survey, journalists were asked how they assess the following sources during an organizational crisis: news agencies, an organization undergoing a crisis, and the general public. The sample consisted of 214 Dutch experienced journalists who at least once covered a crisis. Using structural equation modeling, sources' likelihood of being included in the news was predicted using five source characteristics: credibility, knowledge, willingness, timeliness, and the relationship with the journalist. Findings indicated that during a crisis, news agencies are most likely to be included in the news, followed by the public, and finally the organization. The significance of the five source characteristics is dependent on source type. For example, to be used in the news, news agencies and organizations should be mainly evaluated as knowledgeable, whereas information from the public should be both credible and timely. In addition, organizations should not be seen as too willing or too eager to communicate. The findings imply that, during a crisis, journalists remain critical gatekeepers; however, they rely mainly on familiar sources.

Crimean Crisis and Military Balance in Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongshu Li

2016-04-01

Full Text Available As the Crimean Crisis goes on, many analysis have been focusing on the dynamics among parties of Ukraine, the EU, the US and Russia. Very few noticed another important strategic impact the Crisis may cause: the Chinese military rebalancing in East Asia. China has been increasingly confident in assuming both political and military power in the East Asian region. The confidence resulted in the South China Sea disputes with ASEAN countries, “Anti-Secession Law” against Taiwan, and the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Dispute with Japan. Behind such confidence of China, the EU has consistently been exporting defence products to China since the end of the Cold War; Ukraine, although sometimes reluctantly, has also been backing China along the process of building up a stronger navy as well as other defense industry construction; Russia has traditionally been supplying China with a wide range of military hardware. It can be noticed that the Crimean Crisis involved three out of four countries and region that have been behind China’s rise. How will the Crimean Crisis influence China’s rebalance in East Asia then? The answers stay opaque. This paper will attempt to answer the questions.

The month-of-the-year effect on Bucharest Stock Exchange

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Iulian Panait

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the presence of month-of-the-year effect on Bucharest Stock Exchange using a both a linear regression and a GARCH-M model with dummy variables for both the mean and the variance equation. We have collected monthly returns for five Romanian official exchange indices and for one MSCI Barra country index during May 2007-March 2013, thereby including both the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the recovery that followed during 2009-2013. Our results show that none of the coefficients of the two models are statistically significant, which lead us to conclude that we can not confirm the presence of the January effect or of any other month-of-the-year effect on the Romanian capital market.

Stock market network’s topological stability: Evidence from planar maximally filtered graph and minimal spanning tree

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xin-Guo; Xie, Chi; Wang, Gang-Jin

2015-08-01

We study the topological stability of stock market network by investigating the topological robustness, namely the ability of the network to resist structural or topological changes. The stock market network is extracted by minimal spanning tree (MST) and planar maximally filtered graph (PMFG). We find that the specific delisting thresholds of the listed companies exist in both MST and PMFG networks. In comparison with MST, PMFG provides more information and is better for the aim of exploring stock market network’s robustness. The PMFG before the US sub-prime crisis (i.e., from June 2005 to May 2007) has a stronger robustness against the intentional topological damage than the other two sub-periods (i.e., from June 2007 to May 2009 and from June 2009 to May 2011). We also find that the nonfractal property exists in MSTs of S&P 500, i.e., the highly connected nodes link with each other directly, which indicates that the MSTs are vulnerable to the removal of such important nodes. Moreover, the financial institutions and high technology companies are important in maintaining the stability of S&P 500 network.

Study of adverse drug reactions in out-patient departments of a teaching hospital

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Zinnat Ara Begum

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The study conducted in the Medicine and Skin outpatient departments of Dhaka Medical College, Dhaka revealed 19 cases (7 males, 12 females of adverse drug reactions (ADR out of 160 patients. 31.58% ADRs were of mild type, 42.1% were of moderate and 26.32% were of severe in nature. Gastrointestinal complications were the most frequent adverse effect (56%. Antimicrobial drugs were the most common cause of ADR (42.86% followed by NSAIDs (33.33%. This study is a preliminary study for getting information on the pattern of ADRs in Bangladesh needing further studies.

Statistical Control Charts: Performances of Short Term Stock Trading in Croatia

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Dumičić Ksenija

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The stock exchange, as a regulated financial market, in modern economies reflects their economic development level. The stock market indicates the mood of investors in the development of a country and is an important ingredient for growth. Objectives: This paper aims to introduce an additional statistical tool used to support the decision-making process in stock trading, and it investigate the usage of statistical process control (SPC methods into the stock trading process. Methods/Approach: The individual (I, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA and cumulative sum (CUSUM control charts were used for gaining trade signals. The open and the average prices of CROBEX10 index stocks on the Zagreb Stock Exchange were used in the analysis. The statistical control charts capabilities for stock trading in the short-run were analysed. Results: The statistical control chart analysis pointed out too many signals to buy or sell stocks. Most of them are considered as false alarms. So, the statistical control charts showed to be not so much useful in stock trading or in a portfolio analysis. Conclusions: The presence of non-normality and autocorellation has great impact on statistical control charts performances. It is assumed that if these two problems are solved, the use of statistical control charts in a portfolio analysis could be greatly improved.

A multi-assets artificial stock market with zero-intelligence traders

Science.gov (United States)

Ponta, L.; Raberto, M.; Cincotti, S.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a multi-assets artificial financial market populated by zero-intelligence traders with finite financial resources is presented. The market is characterized by different types of stocks representing firms operating in different sectors of the economy. Zero-intelligence traders follow a random allocation strategy which is constrained by finite resources, past market volatility and allocation universe. Within this framework, stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering, fat-tailed distribution of returns and reversion to the mean. Moreover, the cross-correlations between returns of different stocks are studied using methods of random matrix theory. The probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix shows the presence of outliers, similar to those recently observed on real data for business sectors. It is worth noting that business sectors have been recovered in our framework without dividends as only consequence of random restrictions on the allocation universe of zero-intelligence traders. Furthermore, in the presence of dividend-paying stocks and in the case of cash inflow added to the market, the artificial stock market points out the same structural results obtained in the simulation without dividends. These results suggest a significative structural influence on statistical properties of multi-assets stock market.

Economie in crisi: Eurolandia dalla resistenza alla ricostruzione.(Economies in Crisis: Euroland from Resistance to Reconstruction

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Alberto Quadrio Curzio

2011-06-01

Full Text Available  In this article we underline the effects of the crisis that erupted in the U.S. in 2008, due to financial hazard, and then spread everywhere, to assess how the euro zone (EMU and its countries have acted. We will consider two periods that the EMU has passed through, each characterized by a different attitude towards the crisis: diversified resistance (with more deficits and higher debt, that in many countries was due to bail out banks; unified resistance (intergovernmental coordination, with a common special vehicle (EFSF, ratified by Ecofin and the European Council. We conclude with references to 2011 when the “regulation with actions for growth” might begin. JEL: E00, E02  

The role of gender in crisis management and peacekeeping

OpenAIRE

Himanen, Paula

2017-01-01

This thesis was written as part of GAP (Gaming for Peace) project, which aims to identify the soft skills needed in multicultural EU missions and based on identified training needs to create an online role playing game where these skills can be trained. The thesis researched the role of gender in crisis management. Thesis project was executed during Spring 2017. The main objective of this thesis was to find out how gender matters for better or worse in crisis management. In addition, the ...

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Towards Stock Index Case Study : Jakarta Islamic Index 2006-2014

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Lak lak Nashat el Hasanah

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Fluctuation in economy situation is an important indicator for investor decision making. The investor actions are base on the minimum risk while having maximum profit. One of it is observing the condition of macro variables within monetary policy. This research aims to analyze the impact of inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate towards stock of jakarta islamic Index. The type data used is times series periode 2006-2014. Multiple linier regression with chow test and dummy variable approach to compare and to know the behavior of each independent variables. The result shows partially that birate and exchange rate negatively impact Jakarta Islamic Index before global monetary crisis in 2008, while inflation and money supply not that significantly impact. After global monetary crisis in 2008, partially, birate variable and money supply significantly giving positive influence to Jakarta Islamic Index, while at same time exchange rate and inflation are not significantly influencial. Simultaneously, inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate influence Jakarta islamic Index.

The new international financial crisis: causes, consequences and perspectives

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Flavio Vilela Vieira

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The paper investigates the recent financial crisis within a historical and comparative perspective having in mind that it is ultimately a confidence crisis, initially associated to a chain of high risk loans and financial innovations that spread thorough the international system culminating with impressive wealth losses. The financial market will eventually recover from the crisis but the outcome should be followed by a different and more disciplined set of international institutions. There will be a change on how we perceive the widespread liberal argument that the market is always efficient, or at least, more efficient than any State intervention, overcoming the false perception that the State is in opposition to the market. A deep financial crisis brings out a period of wealth losses and an adjustment process characterized by price corrections (commodities and equity price deflation and real effects (recession and lower employment, and a period of turbulences and end of illusions is in place.

Chinese Crisis Management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gudgel, Andy

2004-01-01

.... China's crisis management strategy is geared towards obtaining the maximum political advantage for China, as opposed to resolving the crisis. China tries to define the crisis on its terms in order to shape the resolution favorably.

SMS for Life: a pilot project to improve anti-malarial drug supply management in rural Tanzania using standard technology

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background Maintaining adequate supplies of anti-malarial medicines at the health facility level in rural sub-Saharan Africa is a major barrier to effective management of the disease. Lack of visibility of anti-malarial stock levels at the health facility level is an important contributor to this problem. Methods A 21-week pilot study, 'SMS for Life', was undertaken during 2009-2010 in three districts of rural Tanzania, involving 129 health facilities. Undertaken through a collaborative partnership of public and private institutions, SMS for Life used mobile telephones, SMS messages and electronic mapping technology to facilitate provision of comprehensive and accurate stock counts from all health facilities to each district management team on a weekly basis. The system covered stocks of the four different dosage packs of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and quinine injectable. Results Stock count data was provided in 95% of cases, on average. A high response rate (≥ 93%) was maintained throughout the pilot. The error rate for composition of SMS responses averaged 7.5% throughout the study; almost all errors were corrected and messages re-sent. Data accuracy, based on surveillance visits to health facilities, was 94%. District stock reports were accessed on average once a day. The proportion of health facilities with no stock of one or more anti-malarial medicine (i.e. any of the four dosages of AL or quinine injectable) fell from 78% at week 1 to 26% at week 21. In Lindi Rural district, stock-outs were eliminated by week 8 with virtually no stock-outs thereafter. During the study, AL stocks increased by 64% and quinine stock increased 36% across the three districts. Conclusions The SMS for Life pilot provided visibility of anti-malarial stock levels to support more efficient stock management using simple and widely available SMS technology, via a public-private partnership model that worked highly effectively. The SMS for Life system has the potential to alleviate

SMS for Life: a pilot project to improve anti-malarial drug supply management in rural Tanzania using standard technology

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Mwafongo Winfred

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Maintaining adequate supplies of anti-malarial medicines at the health facility level in rural sub-Saharan Africa is a major barrier to effective management of the disease. Lack of visibility of anti-malarial stock levels at the health facility level is an important contributor to this problem. Methods A 21-week pilot study, 'SMS for Life', was undertaken during 2009-2010 in three districts of rural Tanzania, involving 129 health facilities. Undertaken through a collaborative partnership of public and private institutions, SMS for Life used mobile telephones, SMS messages and electronic mapping technology to facilitate provision of comprehensive and accurate stock counts from all health facilities to each district management team on a weekly basis. The system covered stocks of the four different dosage packs of artemether-lumefantrine (AL and quinine injectable. Results Stock count data was provided in 95% of cases, on average. A high response rate (≥ 93% was maintained throughout the pilot. The error rate for composition of SMS responses averaged 7.5% throughout the study; almost all errors were corrected and messages re-sent. Data accuracy, based on surveillance visits to health facilities, was 94%. District stock reports were accessed on average once a day. The proportion of health facilities with no stock of one or more anti-malarial medicine (i.e. any of the four dosages of AL or quinine injectable fell from 78% at week 1 to 26% at week 21. In Lindi Rural district, stock-outs were eliminated by week 8 with virtually no stock-outs thereafter. During the study, AL stocks increased by 64% and quinine stock increased 36% across the three districts. Conclusions The SMS for Life pilot provided visibility of anti-malarial stock levels to support more efficient stock management using simple and widely available SMS technology, via a public-private partnership model that worked highly effectively. The SMS for Life system has

Review of Berliner & Biddle "The Manufactured Crisis"

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Lawrence C. Stedman

1996-01-01

Full Text Available In a provocative new book, The Manufactured Crisis, David Berliner and Bruce Biddle make four sweeping claims about U.S. achievement: there never was a test score decline, today's students are "out-achieving their parents substantially" (p. 33, U.S. students "stack up very well" in international assessments (p. 63, and the general education crisis is a right-wing fabrication. As a progressive, I'm sympathetic to their concerns, but as a scholar who specializes in this material, I find their analysis deeply flawed and misleading. They mischaracterize the test score decline data, mishandle the international findings, and fail to acknowledge students' continuing low levels of academic achievement.

Are Outness and Community Involvement Risk or Protective Factors for Alcohol and Drug Abuse Among Sexual Minority Women?

Science.gov (United States)

Feinstein, Brian A; Dyar, Christina; London, Bonita

2017-07-01

Sexual minority women (SMW) are at increased risk for substance abuse compared to heterosexual women. Two psychosocial factors that have been implicated in SMW's substance abuse are outness and LGBT community involvement, but findings have been mixed as to whether these are risk or protective factors. One possible explanation is that they may have different consequences for subgroups of SMW (lesbians, bisexual women, and queer women). While being open about one's sexual orientation and involved in the community may be protective for lesbians, discrimination against bisexual women may lead these same factors to contribute to substance abuse for bisexual women. It is unclear how these associations will operate for queer women, given limited research on this subpopulation. The current study examined whether sexual identity moderated the associations between outness and community involvement with alcohol and drug abuse. We also examined whether perceived discrimination would help explain why these associations may be different for subgroups of SMW. A sample of 288 self-identified SMW (113 lesbians, 106 bisexual women, and 69 queer women) completed an online survey. Higher outness was associated with higher alcohol and drug abuse for bisexual women, but not for lesbians or queer women. Similarly, higher community involvement was associated with higher drug abuse for bisexual women, but not for lesbians or queer women. Among bisexual women, the association between community involvement and drug abuse was mediated by perceived discrimination. Further, the association between outness and drug abuse was mediated by both community involvement and perceived discrimination. Findings demonstrate that outness and community involvement function as risk factors for substance abuse for bisexual women, in part due to their associations with discrimination.

The Prediction Performance of Asset Pricing Models and Their Capability of Capturing the Effects of Economic Crises: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange

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Erol Muzır

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This paper is prepared to test the common opinion that the multifactor asset pricing models produce superior predictions as compared to the single factor models and to evaluate the performance of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. For this purpose, the monthly return data from January 1996 and December 2004 of the stocks of 45 firms listed at Istanbul Stock Exchange were used. Our factor analysis results show that 68,3 % of the return variation can be explained by five factors. Although the APT model has generated a low coefficient of determination, 28,3 %, it proves to be more competent in explaining stock return changes when compared to CAPM which has an inferior explanation power, 5,4 %. Furthermore, we have observed that APT is more robust also in capturing the effects of any economic crisis on return variations.

Managing a Crisis with Social Media

Science.gov (United States)

Bender, T. Gregory

2012-01-01

Thanks to the proliferation of handheld devices and social media such as Facebook and Twitter, people can share information instantly and succinctly. The December 8, 2011, shooting on the Virginia Tech campus underscores how important it is for information to go out quickly but accurately to help school administrators effectively manage a crisis.…

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

Drug supply strategies, constraints and prospects in Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Yusuff, K B; Tayo, F

2004-12-01

The study set out to identify the strategies for public drug supply in Nigeria, assess its functionality, and recommend appropriate means to ensure regular availability of safe, efficacious, good quality and affordable essential drugs at public health facilities. The investigation was carried out at the Directorate of Pharmaceutical services, Federal Ministry of Health (F.M.O.H) Abuja and Federal Medical Stores, Oshodi, Lagos. Semi-structured interview was conducted with key informants at the Department of Food & Drugs, Drug procurement unit and Central Medical store using structured questionnaires and direct informants answers. Our study shows that public drug supply in Nigeria is governed by a National Drug Policy (NDP) which was introduced in 1990 and it is yet to be reviewed after ten years. We also identified the Central Medical Store (CMS) system as the current public drug supply strategy in Nigeria. Public drug supply is mainly financed by governments and this is inadequate to ensure sustained availability of essential drugs. The major procurement methods in use are open tender and direct procurement. These methods as presently operated suffer from late order placement, delay in payment and poor supplier lead-time mainly attributable to lateness in payment for previous drug supplies. These have contributed to stock out of essential drugs at public health facilities. Major losses due to expiration and spoilage are recorded at both central and peripheral storage points despite adequacy of storage facilities and personnel. Road transportation was the major mode of drug distribution from central to peripheral storage points and shortage of vehicle was a key factor affecting drug distribution. There was an apparent lack of a functioning drug management information system to effectively coordinate public drug supply and there are no definite systems that monitor and evaluate staff performance. The CMS strategy currently used for public drug supply in Nigeria has

The Correlation Between External and Internal Factors of the Libyan Crisis

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Ekaterina N. Koposova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Nowadays, the region of Middle East and North Africa has become a "testing ground" where the competition between the great powers takes place . The importance of this region is determined by its geopolitical position, concentration of large natural resources, as well as the fact that it represents the greatest threat to the international security - the bases of terrorist organizations, the strengthening role of the group "Islamic State", drug trafficking and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD. Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya was one of the most developed and richest countries on the African continent: the crisis events of 2011, which resulted in the overthrow of the government, the murder of Muammar Gaddafi and the crisis in the country. From the viewpoint of the neoclassical realism the Libyan crisis is explored in the article. The causes of the crisis (both internal and external as as well as the interests of the great powers - the United States of America, France and Britain are analyzed.

How Did the Asian Stock Markets React to Bank Mergera after the 1997 Financial Crisis?

OpenAIRE

Meslier-Crouzille , Céline; Lepetit , Laetitia; Bautista , Carlos C.

2008-01-01

International audience; The objective of this paper is to empirically assess the stock market reaction to the announcement of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in eight East Asian countries over the 1997-2003 period. M&As are classified according to the status of entity, the time period of the deal and the maturity of the banking system. A bivariate GARCH model is used to estimate abnormal returns taking beta conditional variability into account. We find that the market reacted negatively ...

Managing crisis