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Sample records for dose uncertainty due

  1. Hypofractionated proton therapy for prostate cancer: Dose delivery uncertainty due to interfractional motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Efstathiou, Jason A.; Lu, Hsiao-Ming; Sharp, Gregory C.; Trofimov, Alexei

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The α-to-β (α/β) ratio for prostate tumor is likely lower than that for the surrounding normal organs, such as rectum and bladder (∼3 Gy). As a result, hypofractionation is expected to improve the therapeutic ratio in prostate radiation therapy. However, with the use of fewer, larger fractions, the accuracy of treatment dose delivery becomes more influenced by the physical uncertainties resulting from motion and radiobiological uncertainties in the α/β ratio of the prostate tumor. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of interfractional motion on treatment dose delivery within the likely range of the tumor α/β ratio. Methods: Serial CT images acquired at simulation and daily treatment for three prostate patients were studied retrospectively. A conventional 3D-conformal proton plan was created for each patient, delivering 25 fractions of 2 Gy to ITV1 (internal target volume, expanded from the prostate and clinically involved seminal vesicles) followed by 14 fractions to ITV2 (expanded from the prostate). The plans were renormalized for a series of hypofractionated protocols of between five and 28 fractions. The fractional doses were computed on daily CT and were mapped onto simulation CT using deformable registration. In each course, the doses from the fractions with the lowest D97% of the ITV2 were summed to approximate the lower limit (worst case) of target coverage. The uncertainty in dose and coverage was estimated as the deviation of the worst case from the nominal plan. Results: For treatments in 28 to five fractions, the uncertainty arising from interfractional motion ranged from ∼1% to 4% for V100% and ∼2% to 6% for D100% of the ITV2. The uncertainties in V95% and D95% were both minimal ( 2.5 Gy, assuming the worst case for interfractional motion. Conclusions: In hypofractionated proton therapy for prostate cancer, the dosimetric uncertainties due to interfractional motion were minimal for the ITV2 coverage at 95% isodose

  2. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  3. Toward adaptive radiotherapy for head and neck patients: Uncertainties in dose warping due to the choice of deformable registration algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiga, Catarina, E-mail: catarina.veiga.11@ucl.ac.uk; Royle, Gary [Radiation Physics Group, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Lourenço, Ana Mónica [Radiation Physics Group, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom and Acoustics and Ionizing Radiation Team, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington TW11 0LW (United Kingdom); Mouinuddin, Syed [Department of Radiotherapy, University College London Hospital, London NW1 2BU (United Kingdom); Herk, Marcel van [Department of Radiation Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Modat, Marc; Ourselin, Sébastien; McClelland, Jamie R. [Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-15

    Purpose: The aims of this work were to evaluate the performance of several deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms implemented in our in-house software (NiftyReg) and the uncertainties inherent to using different algorithms for dose warping. Methods: The authors describe a DIR based adaptive radiotherapy workflow, using CT and cone-beam CT (CBCT) imaging. The transformations that mapped the anatomy between the two time points were obtained using four different DIR approaches available in NiftyReg. These included a standard unidirectional algorithm and more sophisticated bidirectional ones that encourage or ensure inverse consistency. The forward (CT-to-CBCT) deformation vector fields (DVFs) were used to propagate the CT Hounsfield units and structures to the daily geometry for “dose of the day” calculations, while the backward (CBCT-to-CT) DVFs were used to remap the dose of the day onto the planning CT (pCT). Data from five head and neck patients were used to evaluate the performance of each implementation based on geometrical matching, physical properties of the DVFs, and similarity between warped dose distributions. Geometrical matching was verified in terms of dice similarity coefficient (DSC), distance transform, false positives, and false negatives. The physical properties of the DVFs were assessed calculating the harmonic energy, determinant of the Jacobian, and inverse consistency error of the transformations. Dose distributions were displayed on the pCT dose space and compared using dose difference (DD), distance to dose difference, and dose volume histograms. Results: All the DIR algorithms gave similar results in terms of geometrical matching, with an average DSC of 0.85 ± 0.08, but the underlying properties of the DVFs varied in terms of smoothness and inverse consistency. When comparing the doses warped by different algorithms, we found a root mean square DD of 1.9% ± 0.8% of the prescribed dose (pD) and that an average of 9% ± 4% of

  4. Measuring uncertainty in dose delivered to the cochlea due to setup error during external beam treatment of patients with cancer of the head and neck

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, M.; Lovelock, D.; Hunt, M.; Mechalakos, J.; Hu, Y.; Pham, H.; Jackson, A., E-mail: jacksona@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 (United States)

    2013-12-15

    Purpose: To use Cone Beam CT scans obtained just prior to treatments of head and neck cancer patients to measure the setup error and cumulative dose uncertainty of the cochlea. Methods: Data from 10 head and neck patients with 10 planning CTs and 52 Cone Beam CTs taken at time of treatment were used in this study. Patients were treated with conventional fractionation using an IMRT dose painting technique, most with 33 fractions. Weekly radiographic imaging was used to correct the patient setup. The authors used rigid registration of the planning CT and Cone Beam CT scans to find the translational and rotational setup errors, and the spatial setup errors of the cochlea. The planning CT was rotated and translated such that the cochlea positions match those seen in the cone beam scans, cochlea doses were recalculated and fractional doses accumulated. Uncertainties in the positions and cumulative doses of the cochlea were calculated with and without setup adjustments from radiographic imaging. Results: The mean setup error of the cochlea was 0.04 ± 0.33 or 0.06 ± 0.43 cm for RL, 0.09 ± 0.27 or 0.07 ± 0.48 cm for AP, and 0.00 ± 0.21 or −0.24 ± 0.45 cm for SI with and without radiographic imaging, respectively. Setup with radiographic imaging reduced the standard deviation of the setup error by roughly 1–2 mm. The uncertainty of the cochlea dose depends on the treatment plan and the relative positions of the cochlea and target volumes. Combining results for the left and right cochlea, the authors found the accumulated uncertainty of the cochlea dose per fraction was 4.82 (0.39–16.8) cGy, or 10.1 (0.8–32.4) cGy, with and without radiographic imaging, respectively; the percentage uncertainties relative to the planned doses were 4.32% (0.28%–9.06%) and 10.2% (0.7%–63.6%), respectively. Conclusions: Patient setup error introduces uncertainty in the position of the cochlea during radiation treatment. With the assistance of radiographic imaging during setup

  5. Constructing the uncertainty of due dates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Sarah C; Anthony, Kathryn E; O'Hair, H Dan

    2014-01-01

    By its nature, the date that a baby is predicted to be born, or the due date, is uncertain. How women construct the uncertainty of their due dates may have implications for when and how women give birth. In the United States as many as 15% of births occur before 39 weeks because of elective inductions or cesarean sections, putting these babies at risk for increased medical problems after birth and later in life. This qualitative study employs a grounded theory approach to understand the decisions women make on how and when to give birth. Thirty-three women who were pregnant or had given birth within the past 2 years participated in key informant or small-group interviews. The results suggest that women interpret the uncertainty of their due dates as a reason to wait for birth and as a reason to start the process early; however, information about a baby's brain development in the final weeks of pregnancy may persuade women to remain pregnant longer. The uncertainties of due dates are analyzed using Babrow's problematic integration, which distinguishes between epistemological and ontological uncertainty. The results point to a third type of uncertainty, axiological uncertainty. Axiological uncertainty is rooted in the values and ethics of outcomes.

  6. Uncertainties on lung doses from inhaled plutonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, Matthew; Birchall, Alan; Bull, Richard K

    2011-10-01

    In a recent epidemiological study, Bayesian uncertainties on lung doses have been calculated to determine lung cancer risk from occupational exposures to plutonium. These calculations used a revised version of the Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM) published by the ICRP. In addition to the Bayesian analyses, which give probability distributions of doses, point estimates of doses (single estimates without uncertainty) were also provided for that study using the existing HRTM as it is described in ICRP Publication 66; these are to be used in a preliminary analysis of risk. To infer the differences between the point estimates and Bayesian uncertainty analyses, this paper applies the methodology to former workers of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), who constituted a subset of the study cohort. The resulting probability distributions of lung doses are compared with the point estimates obtained for each worker. It is shown that mean posterior lung doses are around two- to fourfold higher than point estimates and that uncertainties on doses vary over a wide range, greater than two orders of magnitude for some lung tissues. In addition, we demonstrate that uncertainties on the parameter values, rather than the model structure, are largely responsible for these effects. Of these it appears to be the parameters describing absorption from the lungs to blood that have the greatest impact on estimates of lung doses from urine bioassay. Therefore, accurate determination of the chemical form of inhaled plutonium and the absorption parameter values for these materials is important for obtaining reliable estimates of lung doses and hence risk from occupational exposures to plutonium.

  7. Optimal radiotherapy dose schedules under parametric uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Hamidreza; Watanabe, Yoichi; Leder, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We consider the effects of parameter uncertainty on the optimal radiation schedule in the context of the linear-quadratic model. Our interest arises from the observation that if inter-patient variability in normal and tumor tissue radiosensitivity or sparing factor of the organs-at-risk (OAR) are not accounted for during radiation scheduling, the performance of the therapy may be strongly degraded or the OAR may receive a substantially larger dose than the allowable threshold. This paper proposes a stochastic radiation scheduling concept to incorporate inter-patient variability into the scheduling optimization problem. Our method is based on a probabilistic approach, where the model parameters are given by a set of random variables. Our probabilistic formulation ensures that our constraints are satisfied with a given probability, and that our objective function achieves a desired level with a stated probability. We used a variable transformation to reduce the resulting optimization problem to two dimensions. We showed that the optimal solution lies on the boundary of the feasible region and we implemented a branch and bound algorithm to find the global optimal solution. We demonstrated how the configuration of optimal schedules in the presence of uncertainty compares to optimal schedules in the absence of uncertainty (conventional schedule). We observed that in order to protect against the possibility of the model parameters falling into a region where the conventional schedule is no longer feasible, it is required to avoid extremal solutions, i.e. a single large dose or very large total dose delivered over a long period. Finally, we performed numerical experiments in the setting of head and neck tumors including several normal tissues to reveal the effect of parameter uncertainty on optimal schedules and to evaluate the sensitivity of the solutions to the choice of key model parameters.

  8. Uncertainty In Lagrangian Pollutant Transport Simulations Due to Meteorological Uncertainty at Mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angevine, W. M.; Brioude, J. F.; McKeen, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    Lagrangian particle dispersion models, used to estimate emissions from observations, require meteorological fields as input. Uncertainty in the driving meteorology is one of the major uncertainties in the results. The propagation of uncertainty through the system is not simple, and has not been thoroughly explored. Here, we take an ensemble approach. Six different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model drive otherwise identical simulations with FLEXPART for 49 days over eastern North America. The ensemble spreads of wind speed, mixing height, and tracer concentration are presented. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30-40%. Spatial and temporal averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15-20%. These are lower bounds on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in the analysis. It is not yet known exactly how these uncertainties will propagate through inversions to affect emissions estimates.

  9. Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty at mesoscale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. M. Angevine

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Lagrangian particle dispersion models require meteorological fields as input. Uncertainty in the driving meteorology is one of the major uncertainties in the results. The propagation of uncertainty through the system is not simple, and has not been thoroughly explored. Here, we take an ensemble approach. Six different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model drive otherwise identical simulations with FLEXPART for 49 days over eastern North America. The ensemble spreads of wind speed, mixing height, and tracer concentration are presented. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30–40%. Spatial and temporal averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15–20%. These are lower bounds on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in the analysis.

  10. Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty from a mesoscale WRF ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angevine, W. M.; Brioude, J.; McKeen, S.; Holloway, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    Lagrangian particle dispersion models require meteorological fields as input. Uncertainty in the driving meteorology is one of the major uncertainties in the results. The propagation of uncertainty through the system is not simple, and it has not been thoroughly explored. Here, we take an ensemble approach. Six different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model drive otherwise identical simulations with FLEXPART-WRF for 49 days over eastern North America. The ensemble spreads of wind speed, mixing height, and tracer concentration are presented. Uncertainty of tracer concentrations due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 30-40%. Spatial and temporal averaging reduces the uncertainty marginally. Tracer age uncertainty due solely to meteorological uncertainty is 15-20%. These are lower bounds on the uncertainty, because a number of processes are not accounted for in the analysis.

  11. Experimental Uncertainties of TEPC Dose Equivalent

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Wei-hua; XIAO; Xue-fu; WANG; Zhi-qiang; LIU; Yi-na; LI; Chun-juan; LUO; Hai-long

    2013-01-01

    The tissue-equivalent proportional counters(TEPC)are widely used for radiation protection in mixed radiation fields.The operational quantity H*(10)can be directly obtained by means of microdosimetric spectra measurements with TEPC.An empirical evaluation of uncertainties is reported in this paper.The sources of uncertainties involved in measuring microdosimetric spectra mainly are the sensitive

  12. Uncertainty of dose measurement in radiation processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, A.

    1996-01-01

    The major standard organizations of the world have addressed the issue of reporting uncertainties in measurement reports and certificates. There is, however, still some ambiguity in the minds of many people who try to implement the recommendations in real life. This paper is a contribution...... to the running debate and presents the author's view, which is based upon experience in radiation processing dosimetry. The origin of all uncertainty components must be identified and can be classified according to Type A and Type B, but it is equally important to separate the uncertainty components into those...... that contribute to the observable uncertainty of repeated measurements and those that do not. Examples of the use of these principles are presented in the paper....

  13. Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisøScan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helt-Hansen, J.; Miller, A.

    2006-01-01

    The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectiv...

  14. Estimates of bias and uncertainty in recorded external dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fix, J.J.; Gilbert, E.S.; Baumgartner, W.V.

    1994-10-01

    A study is underway to develop an approach to quantify bias and uncertainty in recorded dose estimates for workers at the Hanford Site based on personnel dosimeter results. This paper focuses on selected experimental studies conducted to better define response characteristics of Hanford dosimeters. The study is more extensive than the experimental studies presented in this paper and includes detailed consideration and evaluation of other sources of bias and uncertainty. Hanford worker dose estimates are used in epidemiologic studies of nuclear workers. A major objective of these studies is to provide a direct assessment of the carcinogenic risk of exposure to ionizing radiation at low doses and dose rates. Considerations of bias and uncertainty in the recorded dose estimates are important in the conduct of this work. The method developed for use with Hanford workers can be considered an elaboration of the approach used to quantify bias and uncertainty in estimated doses for personnel exposed to radiation as a result of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons between 1945 and 1962. This approach was first developed by a National Research Council (NRC) committee examining uncertainty in recorded film badge doses during atmospheric tests (NRC 1989). It involved quantifying both bias and uncertainty from three sources (i.e., laboratory, radiological, and environmental) and then combining them to obtain an overall assessment. Sources of uncertainty have been evaluated for each of three specific Hanford dosimetry systems (i.e., the Hanford two-element film dosimeter, 1944-1956; the Hanford multi-element film dosimeter, 1957-1971; and the Hanford multi-element TLD, 1972-1993) used to estimate personnel dose throughout the history of Hanford operations. Laboratory, radiological, and environmental sources of bias and uncertainty have been estimated based on historical documentation and, for angular response, on selected laboratory measurements.

  15. Dose due to {sup 40}K

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escareno J, E.; Vega C, H. R., E-mail: edmundoej@hotmail.com [Universidad Autonoma de Zacatecas, Unidad Academica de Estudios Nucleares, Calle Cipres No. 10, Fracc. La Penuela, 98068 Zacatecas (Mexico)

    2011-10-15

    The dose due to {sup 40}K has been estimated. Potassium is one of the most abundant elements in nature, being approximately 2% of the Earth's crust. Potassium has three isotopes {sup 39}K, {sup 40}K and {sup 41}K, two are stable while {sup 40}K is radioactive with a half life of 1.2x10{sup 9} years; there is 0.0117% {sup 40}K-to-K ratio. Potassium plays an important role in plants, animals and humans growth and reproduction. Due to the fact that K is an essential element for humans, {sup 40}K is the most abundant radioisotope in human body. In order to keep good health conditions K must be intake at daily basis trough food and beverages, however when K in ingested above the requirements produce adverse health effects in persons with renal, cardiac and hypertension problems or suffering diabetes. In 89.3% {sup 40}K decays to {sup 40}C through {beta}-decay, in 10.3% decays through electronic capture and emitting 1.46 MeV {gamma}-ray. K is abundant in soil, construction materials, sand thus {gamma}-rays produced during {sup 40}K decay contribute to external dose. For K in the body practically all {sup 40}K decaying energy is absorbed by the body; thus {sup 40}K contributes to total dose in humans and it is important to evaluate its contribution. In this work a set of {sup 40}K sources were prepared using different amounts of KCl salt, a {gamma}-ray spectrometer with a NaI(Tl) was characterized to standardized the sources in order to evaluate the dose due to {sup 40}K. Using thermoluminescent dosemeters the dose due to {sup 40}K was measured and related to the amount of {sup 40}K {gamma}-ray activity. (Author)

  16. Uncertainty analysis for absorbed dose from a brain receptor imaging agent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aydogan, B.; Miller, L.F. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Nuclear Engineering Dept.; Sparks, R.B. [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education, TN (United States); Stubbs, J.B. [Radiation Dosimetry Systems of Oak Ridge, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Absorbed dose estimates are known to contain uncertainties. A recent literature search indicates that prior to this study no rigorous investigation of uncertainty associated with absorbed dose has been undertaken. A method of uncertainty analysis for absorbed dose calculations has been developed and implemented for the brain receptor imaging agent {sup 123}I-IPT. The two major sources of uncertainty considered were the uncertainty associated with the determination of residence time and that associated with the determination of the S values. There are many sources of uncertainty in the determination of the S values, but only the inter-patient organ mass variation was considered in this work. The absorbed dose uncertainties were determined for lung, liver, heart and brain. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals of the organ absorbed dose distributions for each patient and for a seven-patient population group were determined by the ``Latin Hypercube Sampling`` method. For an individual patient, the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the absorbed dose was found to be about 2.5 times larger than the estimated mean absorbed dose. For the seven-patient population the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the absorbed dose distribution was around 45% more than the estimated population mean. For example, the 95% confidence interval of the population liver dose distribution was found to be between 1.49E+0.7 Gy/MBq and 4.65E+07 Gy/MBq with a mean of 2.52E+07 Gy/MBq. This study concluded that patients in a population receiving {sup 123}I-IPT could receive absorbed doses as much as twice as large as the standard estimated absorbed dose due to these uncertainties.

  17. Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2008-04-14

    Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate “distance from the hypocenter” was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.

  18. Uncertainty analysis of doses from ingestion of plutonium and americium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, M; Harrison, J D

    2012-02-01

    Uncertainty analyses have been performed on the biokinetic model for americium currently used by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), and the model for plutonium recently derived by Leggett, considering acute intakes by ingestion by adult members of the public. The analyses calculated distributions of doses per unit intake. Those parameters having the greatest impact on prospective doses were identified by sensitivity analysis; the most important were the fraction absorbed from the alimentary tract, f(1), and rates of uptake from blood to bone surfaces. Probability distributions were selected based on the observed distribution of plutonium and americium in human subjects where possible; the distributions for f(1) reflected uncertainty on the average value of this parameter for non-specified plutonium and americium compounds ingested by adult members of the public. The calculated distributions of effective doses for ingested (239)Pu and (241)Am were well described by log-normal distributions, with doses varying by around a factor of 3 above and below the central values; the distributions contain the current ICRP Publication 67 dose coefficients for ingestion of (239)Pu and (241)Am by adult members of the public. Uncertainty on f(1) values had the greatest impact on doses, particularly effective dose. It is concluded that: (1) more precise data on f(1) values would have a greater effect in reducing uncertainties on doses from ingested (239)Pu and (241)Am, than reducing uncertainty on other model parameter values and (2) the results support the dose coefficients (Sv Bq(-1) intake) derived by ICRP for ingestion of (239)Pu and (241)Am by adult members of the public.

  19. Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. 2: Uncertainties due to reaction rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, R. S.; Butler, D. M.; Rundel, R. D.

    1977-01-01

    A concise stratospheric model was used in a Monte-Carlo analysis of the propagation of reaction rate uncertainties through the calculation of an ozone perturbation due to the addition of chlorine. Two thousand Monte-Carlo cases were run with 55 reaction rates being varied. Excellent convergence was obtained in the output distributions because the model is sensitive to the uncertainties in only about 10 reactions. For a 1 ppby chlorine perturbation added to a 1.5 ppby chlorine background, the resultant 1 sigma uncertainty on the ozone perturbation is a factor of 1.69 on the high side and 1.80 on the low side. The corresponding 2 sigma factors are 2.86 and 3.23. Results are also given for the uncertainties, due to reaction rates, in the ambient concentrations of stratospheric species.

  20. Inter- and intrafractional dose uncertainty in hypofractionated Gamma Knife radiosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taeho; Sheehan, Jason; Schlesinger, David

    2016-03-08

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate inter- and intrafractional dose variations resulting from head position deviations for patients treated with the Extend relocatable frame system utilized in hypofractionated Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS). While previous reports characterized the residual setup and intrafraction uncertainties of the system, the dosimetric consequences have not been investigated. A digital gauge was used to measure the head position of 16 consecutive Extend patients (62 fractions) at the time of simulation, before each fraction, and immediately following each fraction. Vector interfraction (difference between simulation and prefraction positions) and intrafraction (difference between postfraction and prefraction positions) shifts in patient position were calculated. Planned dose distributions were shifted by the offset to determine the time-of-treatment dose. Variations in mean and maximum target and organ at risk (OAR) doses as a function of positional shift were evaluated. The mean vector interfraction shift was 0.64 mm (Standard Deviation (SD): 0.25 mm, maximum: 1.17 mm). The mean intrafraction shift was 0.39 mm (SD: 0.25 mm, maximum: 1.44 mm). The mean variation in mean target dose was 0.66% (SD: 1.15%, maximum: 5.77%) for inter-fraction shifts and 0.26% (SD: 0.34%, maximum: 1.85%) for intrafraction shifts. The mean variation in maximum dose to OARs was 7.15% (SD: 5.73%, maximum: 30.59%) for interfraction shifts and 4.07% (SD: 4.22%, maximum: 17.04%) for intrafraction shifts. Linear fitting of the mean variation in maximum dose to OARs as a function of position yielded dose deviations of 10.58%/mm for interfractional shifts and 7.69%/mm for intrafractional shifts. Positional uncertainties when per-forming hypofractionated Gamma Knife radiosurgery with the Extend system are small and comparable to frame-based uncertainties (< 1 mm). However, the steep dose gradient characteristics of GKRS mean that the dosimetric consequences of

  1. Uncertainty analysis of preclosure accident doses for the Yucca Mountain repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, C.W.; Miller, D.D.; Zavoshy, S.J. [Bechtel National, Inc., San Francisco, CA (USA); Jardine, L.J. [Jardine (L.J.) and Associates, Livermore, CA (USA)

    1990-12-31

    This study presents a generic methodology that can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated accidental offsite doses at the Yucca Mountain repository during the preclosure period. For demonstration purposes, this methodology is applied to two specific accident scenarios: the first involves a crane dropping an open container with consolidated fuel rods, the second involves container failure during emplacement or removal operations. The uncertainties of thirteen parameters are quantified by various types of probability distributions. The Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to evaluate the uncertainty of the offsite dose. For the crane-drop scenario with concurrent filter failure, the doses due to the release of airborne fuel particles are calculated to be 0.019, 0.32, and 2.8 rem at confidence levels of 10%, 50%, and 90%, respectively. For the container failure scenario with concurrent filter failure, the 90% confidence-level dose is 0.21 rem. 20 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Quantifying uncertainty in NDSHA estimates due to earthquake catalogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, Andrea; Peresan, Antonella; Vaccari, Franco; Panza, Giuliano

    2014-05-01

    of ground motion error can therefore be the factor of 2, intrinsic in MCS scale. We tested this hypothesis by the analysis of uncertainty in ground motion maps due to the catalogue random errors in magnitude and localization.

  3. Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicari Kristin J

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of

  4. Analytical probabilistic proton dose calculation and range uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangert, M.; Hennig, P.; Oelfke, U.

    2014-03-01

    We introduce the concept of analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) to calculate the mean and the standard deviation of intensity-modulated proton dose distributions under the influence of range uncertainties in closed form. For APM, range uncertainties are modeled with a multivariate Normal distribution p(z) over the radiological depths z. A pencil beam algorithm that parameterizes the proton depth dose d(z) with a weighted superposition of ten Gaussians is used. Hence, the integrals ∫ dz p(z) d(z) and ∫ dz p(z) d(z)2 required for the calculation of the expected value and standard deviation of the dose remain analytically tractable and can be efficiently evaluated. The means μk, widths δk, and weights ωk of the Gaussian components parameterizing the depth dose curves are found with least squares fits for all available proton ranges. We observe less than 0.3% average deviation of the Gaussian parameterizations from the original proton depth dose curves. Consequently, APM yields high accuracy estimates for the expected value and standard deviation of intensity-modulated proton dose distributions for two dimensional test cases. APM can accommodate arbitrary correlation models and account for the different nature of random and systematic errors in fractionated radiation therapy. Beneficial applications of APM in robust planning are feasible.

  5. The MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty function and its effect on planar dose pass rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Daniel W; Spaans, Jason D; Kumaraswamy, Lalith K; Podgorsak, Matthew B

    2016-03-08

    Our study aimed to quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as measured and analyzed with the Sun Nuclear Corporation MapCHECK 2 array and its associated software. This optional function is toggled in the program preferences of the software (though turned on by default upon installation), and automatically increases the dose difference tolerance defined by the user for each planar dose comparison. Dose planes from 109 static-gantry IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs, of varying modulation complexity, were measured at 5 cm water-equivalent depth in the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and respective calculated dose planes were exported from a commercial treatment planning system. Planar dose comparison pass rates were calculated within the Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software using a number of calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the percent difference (%Diff) criterion for similar analyses performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with Measurement Uncertainty turned on. On average, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff criterion by 0.8%-1.1% for 3%/3 mm analysis, depending on plan type and calculation technique (corresponding to an average change in pass rate of 1.0%-3.5%, and a maximum change of 8.7%). At the 2%/2 mm level, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff criterion by 0.7%-1.2% on average, again depending on plan type and calculation technique (corresponding to an average change in pass rate of 3.5%-8.1%, and a maximum change of 14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate due to the Measurement Uncertainty function are generally seen with poorly matched planar dose comparisons, while the function has a notably smaller effect as pass rates approach 100%. The Measurement Uncertainty function, then, may

  6. Activities, procedures and doses in pediatric patients due to radiopharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Maria Velasques de Oliveira

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available An investigation performed between 2003 and 2005 in sixteen selected public and private institutions in Northeast, Southeast and South geographical regions of Brazil evaluated average organ doses and effective doses in 2,411 pediatric patients due to diagnostic procedures with radiopharmaceuticals. For 1 year, effective doses were greater than literature. For 5 years, differences were noticed between present work and literature for bone scintigraphy, thyroid scintigraphy and 67Ga citrate scintigraphy. These differences may be attributed to the uncertainties in internal dose calculations. High absorved doses in bone surfaces of children due to 67Ga citrate and bone scintigraphy should be evaluated accordingly. Current protocols used recommend standardized mean activities per mean weight for all ages. However, it was observed that the activities were not standardized and were higher for children with younger ages. Future studies are needed for optimising activities of radiopharmaceuticals to these patients in the country.Foi realizado no Brasil, no período 2003-2005, um estudo sobre doses absorvidas em órgãos e doses efetivas devido ao uso de radiofármacos em pacientes pediátricos. Foram estudadas 2.411 crianças e adolescentes menores de 18 anos. Foi observado que as atividades usadas não foram padronizadas, sendo maiores para crianças de menor idade, podendo ser otimizadas conforme apropriado. Para 1 ano, as doses efetivas foram maiores do que as publicadas na literatura e para 5 anos, foram observadas diferenças para cintilografias ósseas, cintilografias da tireóide, e pesquisas de corpo inteiro com citrato de 67G. Deve ser avaliado se doses absorvidas em órgãos, especialmente para superfície óssea devido a cintilografias ósseas com 99mTc MDP e pesquisa de corpo inteiro com citrato de 67Ga podem acarretar risco radiológico adicional aos pacientes, considerando-se as peculiaridades de seu estado clínico.

  7. Sensitivity of Process Design due to Uncertainties in Property Estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Jones, Mark Nicholas; Sarup, Bent;

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a systematic methodology for performing analysis of sensitivity of process design due to uncertainties in property estimates. The methodology provides the following results: a) list of properties with critical importance on design; b) acceptable levels...... of accuracy for different thermo-physical property prediction models; and c) design variables versus properties relationships. The application of the methodology is illustrated through a case study of an extractive distillation process and sensitivity analysis of designs of various unit operations found...

  8. Physics-related epistemic uncertainties in proton depth dose simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Pia, Maria Grazia; Lechner, Anton; Quintieri, Lina; Saracco, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    A set of physics models and parameters pertaining to the simulation of proton energy deposition in matter are evaluated in the energy range up to approximately 65 MeV, based on their implementations in the Geant4 toolkit. The analysis assesses several features of the models and the impact of their associated epistemic uncertainties, i.e. uncertainties due to lack of knowledge, on the simulation results. Possible systematic effects deriving from uncertainties of this kind are highlighted; their relevance in relation to the application environment and different experimental requirements are discussed, with emphasis on the simulation of radiotherapy set-ups. By documenting quantitatively the features of a wide set of simulation models and the related intrinsic uncertainties affecting the simulation results, this analysis provides guidance regarding the use of the concerned simulation tools in experimental applications; it also provides indications for further experimental measurements addressing the sources of s...

  9. Modulation index for VMAT considering both mechanical and dose calculation uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jong Min; Park, So Yeon; Kim, Jung In [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ye, Sung Joon [Program in Biomedical Radiation Sciences, Department of Transdisciplinary Studies, Seoul National University Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Wu, Hong Gyun [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyoung Nyoun [Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The mechanical uncertainty of multi-leaf collimator (MLC) movements, gantry rotations and beam control systems as well as inaccurate dose calculations of small or irregular fields result in discrepancies between planned dose distributions as intended to be delivered to the patient, and the actual delivery to the patient. In this study, we designed a weighting factor which considers the size and irregularity of field apertures at each control point (CP) by utilizing the thinning algorithm, an image processing technique. After that, we combined this weighting factor with the previously suggested MIt, which considers the mechanical uncertainty of VMAT. In doing so, we attempted to design a modulation index which considers both mechanical and dose calculation uncertainties due to excessive modulation of VMAT plans. The MI{sub c} (f = 0.5) demonstrated considerable power to predict VMAT delivery accuracy showing strong correlations to various measures of VMAT delivery accuracy.

  10. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  11. Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

    2016-02-10

    Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure.

  12. Uncertainties in SOA simulations due to meteorological uncertainties in Mexico City during MILAGRO-2006 field campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bei, N.; Li, G.; Molina, L. T.

    2013-05-01

    The purpose of the present study is to investigate the uncertainties in simulating secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) due to meteorological initial uncertainties using the WRF-CHEM model through ensemble simulations. The simulated periods (24 and 29 March 2006) represent two typical meteorological episodes ("Convection-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MILAGRO-2006 field campaign. The organic aerosols are simulated using a non-traditional SOA model including the volatility basis-set modeling method and the contributions from glyoxal and methylglyoxal. Model results demonstrate that uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on SOA simulations, including the peak time concentrations, the horizontal distributions, and the temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak SOA at T0 can reach up to 4.0 μg m-3 during the daytime, which is around 35% of the ensemble mean. Both the basin wide wind speed and the convergence area affect the magnitude and the location of the simulated SOA concentrations inside the Mexico City basin. The wind speed, especially during the previous midnight and the following early morning, influences the magnitude of the peak SOA concentration through ventilation. The surface horizontal convergence zone generally determines the area with high SOA concentrations. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads may vary with different meteorological episodes but the ratio of the ensemble spread to mean does not change significantly.

  13. Assessment and interpretation of internal doses: uncertainty and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquet, F; Bailey, M R; Leggett, R W; Harrison, J D

    2016-06-01

    Internal doses are calculated on the basis of knowledge of intakes and/or measurements of activity in bioassay samples, typically using reference biokinetic and dosimetric models recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). These models describe the behaviour of the radionuclides after ingestion, inhalation, and absorption to the blood, and the absorption of the energy resulting from their nuclear transformations. They are intended to be used mainly for the purpose of radiological protection: that is, optimisation and demonstration of compliance with dose limits. These models and parameter values are fixed by convention and are not subject to uncertainty. Over the past few years, ICRP has devoted a considerable amount of effort to the revision and improvement of models to make them more physiologically realistic. ICRP models are now sufficiently sophisticated for calculating organ and tissue absorbed doses for scientific purposes, and in many other areas, including toxicology, pharmacology and medicine. In these specific cases, uncertainties in parameters and variability between individuals need to be taken into account.

  14. Uncertainty of inhalation dose coefficients for representative physical and chemical forms of iodine-131

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Richard Paul, III

    Releases of radioactive material have occurred at various Department of Energy (DOE) weapons facilities and facilities associated with the nuclear fuel cycle in the generation of electricity. Many different radionuclides have been released to the environment with resulting exposure of the population to these various sources of radioactivity. Radioiodine has been released from a number of these facilities and is a potential public health concern due to its physical and biological characteristics. Iodine exists as various isotopes, but our focus is on 131I due to its relatively long half-life, its prevalence in atmospheric releases and its contribution to offsite dose. The assumption of physical and chemical form is speculated to have a profound impact on the deposition of radioactive material within the respiratory tract. In the case of iodine, it has been shown that more than one type of physical and chemical form may be released to, or exist in, the environment; iodine can exist as a particle or as a gas. The gaseous species can be further segregated based on chemical form: elemental, inorganic, and organic iodides. Chemical compounds in each class are assumed to behave similarly with respect to biochemistry. Studies at Oak Ridge National Laboratories have demonstrated that 131I is released as a particulate, as well as in elemental, inorganic and organic chemical form. The internal dose estimate from 131I may be very different depending on the effect that chemical form has on fractional deposition, gas uptake, and clearance in the respiratory tract. There are many sources of uncertainty in the estimation of environmental dose including source term, airborne transport of radionuclides, and internal dosimetry. Knowledge of uncertainty in internal dosimetry is essential for estimating dose to members of the public and for determining total uncertainty in dose estimation. Important calculational steps in any lung model is regional estimation of deposition fractions

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  16. Uncertainties in electron-absorbed fractions and lung doses from inhaled beta-emitters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farfán, Eduardo B; Bolch, Wesley E; Huston, Thomas E; Rajon, Didier A; Huh, Chulhaeng; Bolch, W Emmett

    2005-01-01

    The computer code LUDUC (Lung Dose Uncertainty Code), developed at the University of Florida, was originally used to investigate the range of potential doses from the inhalation of either plutonium or uranium oxides. The code employs the ICRP Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract model; however, rather than using simple point estimates for each of the model parameters associated with particle deposition, clearance, and lung-tissue dosimetry, probability density functions are ascribed to these parameters based upon detailed literature review. These distributions are subsequently sampled within LUDUC using Latin hypercube sampling techniques to generate multiple (e.g., approximately 1,000) sets of input vectors (i.e., trials), each yielding a unique estimate of lung dose. In the present study, the dosimetry component of the ICRP-66 model within LUDUC has been extended to explicitly consider variations in the beta particle absorbed fraction due to corresponding uncertainties and biological variabilities in both source and target tissue depths and thicknesses within the bronchi and bronchioles of the thoracic airways. Example dose distributions are given for the inhalation of absorption Type S compounds of 90Sr (Tmax = 546 keV) and 90Y (Tmax = 2,284 keV) as a function of particle size. Over the particle size range of 0.001 to 1 microm, estimates of total lung dose vary by a factor of 10 for 90Sr particles and by a factor of 4 to 10 for 90Y particles. As the particle size increases to 10 microm, dose uncertainties reach a factor of 100 for both radionuclides. In comparisons to identical exposures scenarios run by the LUDEP 2.0 code, Reference Man doses for inhaled beta-emitters were shown to provide slightly conservative estimates of lung dose compared to those in this study where uncertainties in lung airway histology are considered.

  17. Uncertainty in Lagrangian pollutant transport simulations due to meteorological uncertainty at mesoscale

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Lagrangian particle dispersion models require meteorological fields as input. Uncertainty in the driving meteorology is one of the major uncertainties in the results. The propagation of uncertainty through the system is not simple, and has not been thoroughly explored. Here, we take an ensemble approach. Six different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model drive otherwise identical simulations with FLEXPART for 49 days over eastern N...

  18. Dose computation in conformal radiation therapy including geometric uncertainties: Methods and clinical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosu, Mihaela

    The aim of any radiotherapy is to tailor the tumoricidal radiation dose to the target volume and to deliver as little radiation dose as possible to all other normal tissues. However, the motion and deformation induced in human tissue by ventilatory motion is a major issue, as standard practice usually uses only one computed tomography (CT) scan (and hence one instance of the patient's anatomy) for treatment planning. The interfraction movement that occurs due to physiological processes over time scales shorter than the delivery of one treatment fraction leads to differences between the planned and delivered dose distributions. Due to the influence of these differences on tumors and normal tissues, the tumor control probabilities and normal tissue complication probabilities are likely to be impacted upon in the face of organ motion. In this thesis we apply several methods to compute dose distributions that include the effects of the treatment geometric uncertainties by using the time-varying anatomical information as an alternative to the conventional Planning Target Volume (PTV) approach. The proposed methods depend on the model used to describe the patient's anatomy. The dose and fluence convolution approaches for rigid organ motion are discussed first, with application to liver tumors and the rigid component of the lung tumor movements. For non-rigid behavior a dose reconstruction method that allows the accumulation of the dose to the deforming anatomy is introduced, and applied for lung tumor treatments. Furthermore, we apply the cumulative dose approach to investigate how much information regarding the deforming patient anatomy is needed at the time of treatment planning for tumors located in thorax. The results are evaluated from a clinical perspective. All dose calculations are performed using a Monte Carlo based algorithm to ensure more realistic and more accurate handling of tissue heterogeneities---of particular importance in lung cancer treatment planning.

  19. Uncertainty of Doppler reactivity worth due to uncertainties of JENDL-3.2 resonance parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zukeran, Atsushi [Hitachi Ltd., Hitachi, Ibaraki (Japan). Power and Industrial System R and D Div.; Hanaki, Hiroshi; Nakagawa, Tuneo; Shibata, Keiichi; Ishikawa, Makoto

    1998-03-01

    Analytical formula of Resonance Self-shielding Factor (f-factor) is derived from the resonance integral (J-function) based on NR approximation and the analytical expression for Doppler reactivity worth ({rho}) is also obtained by using the result. Uncertainties of the f-factor and Doppler reactivity worth are evaluated on the basis of sensitivity coefficients to the resonance parameters. The uncertainty of the Doppler reactivity worth at 487{sup 0}K is about 4 % for the PNC Large Fast Breeder Reactor. (author)

  20. Measurements of fusion neutron yields by neutron activation technique: Uncertainty due to the uncertainty on activation cross-sections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunas, Gediminas, E-mail: gediminas.stankunas@lei.lt [Lithuanian Energy Institute, Laboratory of Nuclear Installation Safety, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas (Lithuania); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Batistoni, Paola [ENEA, Via E. Fermi, 45, 00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Sjöstrand, Henrik; Conroy, Sean [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, PO Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala (Sweden); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-11

    The neutron activation technique is routinely used in fusion experiments to measure the neutron yields. This paper investigates the uncertainty on these measurements as due to the uncertainties on dosimetry and activation reactions. For this purpose, activation cross-sections were taken from the International Reactor Dosimetry and Fusion File (IRDFF-v1.05) in 640 groups ENDF-6 format for several reactions of interest for both 2.5 and 14 MeV neutrons. Activation coefficients (reaction rates) have been calculated using the neutron flux spectra at JET vacuum vessel, both for DD and DT plasmas, calculated by MCNP in the required 640-energy group format. The related uncertainties for the JET neutron spectra are evaluated as well using the covariance data available in the library. These uncertainties are in general small, but not negligible when high accuracy is required in the determination of the fusion neutron yields.

  1. Uncertainty in soil carbon accounting due to unrecognized soil erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderman, Jonathan; Chappell, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    The movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during erosion and deposition events represents a major perturbation to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Despite the recognized impact soil redistribution can have on the carbon cycle, few major carbon accounting models currently allow for soil mass flux. Here, we modified a commonly used SOC model to include a soil redistribution term and then applied it to scenarios which explore the implications of unrecognized erosion and deposition for SOC accounting. We show that models that assume a static landscape may be calibrated incorrectly as erosion of SOC is hidden within the decay constants. This implicit inclusion of erosion then limits the predictive capacity of these models when applied to sites with different soil redistribution histories. Decay constants were found to be 15-50% slower when an erosion rate of 15 t soil ha(-1)  yr(-1) was explicitly included in the SOC model calibration. Static models cannot account for SOC change resulting from agricultural management practices focused on reducing erosion rates. Without accounting for soil redistribution, a soil sampling scheme which uses a fixed depth to support model development can create large errors in actual and relative changes in SOC stocks. When modest levels of erosion were ignored, the combined uncertainty in carbon sequestration rates was 0.3-1.0 t CO2  ha(-1)  yr(-1) . This range is similar to expected sequestration rates for many management options aimed at increasing SOC levels. It is evident from these analyses that explicit recognition of soil redistribution is critical to the success of a carbon monitoring or trading scheme which seeks to credit agricultural activities.

  2. Effect of uncertainty in nasal airway deposition of radioactive particles on effective dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilmette, R.A.; Birchall, A.; Jarvis, N.S

    1998-07-01

    In the current ICRP human respiratory tract (RT) model (ICRP Publication 66), the deposition of particles in various regions of the RT during natural breathing is modelled by considering the RT as a series of filters, resulting in deposition probabilities for distal portions of the RT being dependent on those of the proximal segments. Thus, uncertainties in regional deposition in proximal segments of the RT are reflected or propagated in uncertainties in deposition in the distal segments of the lung. Experimental data on aerosol particle deposition have demonstrated significant variability in nasal airway (NA) deposition for different individuals studied. This report summarises the impact of introducing variability in NA deposition efficiency on the calculation of effective doses using the ICRP 66 model for selected radionuclides. The computer software LUDEP, modified for this purpose, was used to customise deposition patterns, and effective doses were calculated for several radionuclides ({sup 111}In, {sup 106}Ru, {sup 60}Co, {sup 210}Po, {sup 238}U and {sup 239}Pu) chosen to represent isotopes with various decay schemes and half-lives. The results indicated significant but particle-size-specific effects of assumed NA deposition efficiencies on the calculated effective doses, which varied typically by factors of five to six. The majority of the variability was associated with direct effects on deposition patterns, but in some cases, alterations of radiation dose distribution within the various target organs also contributed to the variability. These results provide a basis for evaluating uncertainties due to inter-individual differences in deposition patterns for radiation protection and risk analysis. (author)

  3. The limitations of atmospheric dispersion data and their contribution to uncertainties in dose assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, B D; Ohr, S Y

    1985-03-01

    The calculation of atmospheric dispersion patterns is often an important component of radiation dose estimates. These dispersion calculations are a possible source of error and such errors or uncertainties need to be quantified. An important source of uncertainty is the meteorological data used in the calculations. Such data may be less than ideal because of constraints imposed by both availability and by the variances associated with population from which the data are obtained. We have studied a simple and much used model of atmospheric dispersion--the Gaussian plume. We discuss the uncertainties on the meteorological data which are input to the model and how these uncertainties could be used to estimate uncertainties for the modeling results. In doing this we have addressed both the uncertainty associated with a recorded climatology and the added uncertainty arising from the year-to-year variability at any given location.

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

  5. Determination of the uncertainties in radiation doses from ingestion of strontium-90

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostoaei, Andrei Iulian

    Quantification of the uncertainties in the internal dosimetry is important because it can impact the outcome of dose reconstruction, risk assessment or epidemiological studies. This research focused on determination of the uncertainties in the dose factors from a single ingestion of 90Sr by adults, and analyzed the changes with age and the effect of gender. The uncertainties in the estimated dose factors are a factor of 6 for the bone surface, 5 for the red bone marrow, 2.5 for bladder and stomach, 2.2 for the small intestine, 2.1 for the upper large intestine and 2.7 for the lower large intestine. For the rest of the organs the uncertainty is a factor of 3. Only four parameters of the biokinetic model showed an age-dependency within the adult age group: the fractional transfers of strontium from plasma to cortical and trabecular bone, and the removal rates from the cortical and trabecular bone, respectively. When age-dependent biokinetic parameters were used, the estimated dose-factors are very close to the dose factors obtained using age-independent kinetics (within 40%). Thus, the dose factors based on age-independent parameters should suffice for most practical purposes. The dose factors and the associated uncertainties were also calculated as a function of age-at-exposure and attained age. These age dependent curves can be used for estimating doses from continuous intakes, or doses delivered over a limited portion of time. In addition to the committed dose, an expected dose is also estimated in this work. The expected dose is calculated using the dose rate weighted by the probability of surviving up to the age when the dose-rate is delivered. For exposure at young ages the expected dose and the committed dose are similar, but the committed dose decreases to zero when exposure occurs close to age 70, while the expected dose has elevated values pass age 70. No gender differences were found for bone surface, for red bone marrow, and the large intestine. The doses

  6. Robustness of target dose coverage to motion uncertainties for scanned carbon ion beam tracking therapy of moving tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eley, John Gordon; Newhauser, Wayne David; Richter, Daniel; Lüchtenborg, Robert; Saito, Nami; Bert, Christoph

    2015-02-21

    Beam tracking with scanned carbon ion radiotherapy achieves highly conformal target dose by steering carbon pencil beams to follow moving tumors using real-time magnetic deflection and range modulation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of target dose coverage from beam tracking in light of positional uncertainties of moving targets and beams. To accomplish this, we simulated beam tracking for moving targets in both water phantoms and a sample of lung cancer patients using a research treatment planning system. We modeled various deviations from perfect tracking that could arise due to uncertainty in organ motion and limited precision of a scanned ion beam tracking system. We also investigated the effects of interfractional changes in organ motion on target dose coverage by simulating a complete course of treatment using serial (weekly) 4DCTs from six lung cancer patients. For perfect tracking of moving targets, we found that target dose coverage was high ([Formula: see text] was 94.8% for phantoms and 94.3% for lung cancer patients, respectively) but sensitive to changes in the phase of respiration at the start of treatment and to the respiratory period. Phase delays in tracking the moving targets led to large degradation of target dose coverage (up to 22% drop for a 15° delay). Sensitivity to technical uncertainties in beam tracking delivery was minimal for a lung cancer case. However, interfractional changes in anatomy and organ motion led to large decreases in target dose coverage (target coverage dropped approximately 8% due to anatomy and motion changes after 1 week). Our findings provide a better understand of the importance of each of these uncertainties for beam tracking with scanned carbon ion therapy and can be used to inform the design of future scanned ion beam tracking systems.

  7. Robustness of target dose coverage to motion uncertainties for scanned carbon ion beam tracking therapy of moving tumors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eley, John Gordon; Newhauser, Wayne David; Richter, Daniel; Lüchtenborg, Robert; Saito, Nami; Bert, Christoph

    2015-02-01

    Beam tracking with scanned carbon ion radiotherapy achieves highly conformal target dose by steering carbon pencil beams to follow moving tumors using real-time magnetic deflection and range modulation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of target dose coverage from beam tracking in light of positional uncertainties of moving targets and beams. To accomplish this, we simulated beam tracking for moving targets in both water phantoms and a sample of lung cancer patients using a research treatment planning system. We modeled various deviations from perfect tracking that could arise due to uncertainty in organ motion and limited precision of a scanned ion beam tracking system. We also investigated the effects of interfractional changes in organ motion on target dose coverage by simulating a complete course of treatment using serial (weekly) 4DCTs from six lung cancer patients. For perfect tracking of moving targets, we found that target dose coverage was high ({{\\overline{V}}95} was 94.8% for phantoms and 94.3% for lung cancer patients, respectively) but sensitive to changes in the phase of respiration at the start of treatment and to the respiratory period. Phase delays in tracking the moving targets led to large degradation of target dose coverage (up to 22% drop for a 15° delay). Sensitivity to technical uncertainties in beam tracking delivery was minimal for a lung cancer case. However, interfractional changes in anatomy and organ motion led to large decreases in target dose coverage (target coverage dropped approximately 8% due to anatomy and motion changes after 1 week). Our findings provide a better understand of the importance of each of these uncertainties for beam tracking with scanned carbon ion therapy and can be used to inform the design of future scanned ion beam tracking systems.

  8. Measurement uncertainty analysis of low-dose-rate prostate seed brachytherapy: post-implant dosimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Kent J; Pattison, John E; Bibbo, Giovanni

    2015-03-01

    The minimal dose covering 90 % of the prostate volume--D 90--is arguably the most important dosimetric parameter in low-dose-rate prostate seed brachytherapy. In this study an analysis of the measurement uncertainties in D 90 from low-dose-rate prostate seed brachytherapy was conducted for two common treatment procedures with two different post-implant dosimetry methods. The analysis was undertaken in order to determine the magnitude of D 90 uncertainty, how the magnitude of the uncertainty varied when D 90 was calculated using different dosimetry methods, and which factors were the major contributors to the uncertainty. The analysis considered the prostate as being homogeneous and tissue equivalent and made use of published data, as well as original data collected specifically for this analysis, and was performed according to the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM). It was found that when prostate imaging and seed implantation were conducted in two separate sessions using only CT images for post-implant analysis, the expanded uncertainty in D 90 values were about 25 % at the 95 % confidence interval. When prostate imaging and seed implantation were conducted during a single session using CT and ultrasound images for post-implant analysis, the expanded uncertainty in D 90 values were about 33 %. Methods for reducing these uncertainty levels are discussed. It was found that variations in contouring the target tissue made the largest contribution to D 90 uncertainty, while the uncertainty in seed source strength made only a small contribution. It is important that clinicians appreciate the overall magnitude of D 90 uncertainty and understand the factors that affect it so that clinical decisions are soundly based, and resources are appropriately allocated.

  9. Uncertainties in estimating heart doses from 2D-tangential breast cancer radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laugaard Lorenzen, Ebbe; Brink, Carsten; Taylor, Carolyn W.;

    2016-01-01

    heart dose estimated from individual CT-scans varied from 8Gy, and maximum dose from 5 to 50Gy for all three regimens, so that estimates based only on regimen had substantial uncertainty. When maximum heart distance was taken into account, the uncertainty was reduced and was comparable......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We evaluated the accuracy of three methods of estimating radiation dose to the heart from two-dimensional tangential radiotherapy for breast cancer, as used in Denmark during 1982-2002. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three tangential radiotherapy regimens were reconstructed using CT...... to the uncertainty of estimates based on individual CT-scans. For right-sided breast cancer patients, mean heart dose based on individual CT-scans was always

  10. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan. Draft for Peer Review: Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

  11. Uncertainties in contamination level and in doses after exposure to actinide aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritsch, P.; Berard, P.; Frank, D.; Ansoborlo, E.; Fottorino, R.; Challeton-Devatayre, C.; Miele, A.; Blanchin, N.; Raynaud, P.; Piechowski, J. [CEA Cadarache, MEDOR, A. Miele, SST, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)

    2006-07-01

    A task group named 'Methodes Dosimetriques de Reference' (M.E.D.O.R.) has been created recently to provide didactic tools for dose estimation from bioassay data obtained after occupational exposure. This task group is focused on 1) application limits of the available models, 2) uncertainties in radionuclide biokinetics and in doses, and 3) identification of the main parameters involved in these uncertainties. First, uncertainties in biokinetics of {sup 239}Pu (thoracic retention and excretion) and in doses have been estimated after acute inhalation of PuO{sub 2} (A.M.A.D. 5{mu}m, type S). This was performed either when the activity of the inhaled aerosol (case 1) or the thoracic retention on day 1 (case 2) could be measured. Variability assigned to the different parameters of the ICRP models was that previously reported. After simulation, a lognormal distribution of the results was observed so that uncertainties can be expressed as 95 % Confidence interval Ratio (C.R.={sigma}{sub g}{sup 4}). In case 1, most of the uncertainties were due to aerosol deposition and remained nearly constant for 1000 days after exposure (thoracic, faecal and urinary C.R. of 8, 6 -30 and 10, respectively). In contrast, in case 2, thoracic C.R. gradually increased from 1.5 to 5, faecal C.R. was similar to that of case 1 up to 20 days and then sharply decreased to about 3, whereas C.R. of urinary excretion remained similar to case 1 throughout the 1000 day period. Uncertainties in D.P.U.I. were much higher in case 1 (C.R.=7) than in case 2 (C.R.=2) and were both mainly due to the uncertainties in thoracic equivalent doses. Second, different bioassay data were analysed to verify if the observed results were within the C.R. previously calculated for case 2. Two cases are provided as examples which appeared out of this range. The first one corresponds to an acute exposure to PuO{sub 2} aerosols which was followed for about 20 years. Fit analysis has shown a low value of the slow

  12. Uncertainty in delivered dose resulting from the distribution of source activities in a Selectron LDR afterloader

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ho, A.K.; Castiglione, Robert; Podgorsak, M.B.; Sibata, C.H.; Shin, K.H. (Roswell Park Cancer Inst., Buffalo, NY (United States). Dept. of Radiation Medicine)

    1994-11-01

    The uncertainty in the delivered dose resulting from the distribution of [sup 137]Cs source activity in a clinical Selectron LDR unit has been studied. A comparison is made of the dose delivered to a point 'A' in an implant with sources of equal activity to the actual dose delivered in the same implant with source activities randomly chosen from the population in the afterloader. (author).

  13. Beyond dose assessment: using risk with full disclosure of uncertainty in public and scientific communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, F Owen; Kocher, David C; Apostoaei, A Iulian

    2011-11-01

    Evaluations of radiation exposures of workers and the public traditionally focus on assessments of radiation dose, especially annual dose, without explicitly evaluating the health risk associated with those exposures, principally the risk of radiation-induced cancer. When dose is the endpoint of an assessment, opportunities to communicate the significance of exposures are limited to comparisons with dose criteria in regulations, doses due to natural background or medical x-rays, and doses above which a statistically significant increase of disease has been observed in epidemiologic studies. Risk assessment generally addresses the chance (probability) that specific diseases might be induced by past, present, or future exposure. The risk of cancer per unit dose will vary depending on gender, age, exposure type (acute or chronic), and radiation type. It is not uncommon to find that two individuals with the same effective dose will have substantially different risks. Risk assessment has shown, for example, that: (a) medical exposures to computed tomography scans have become a leading source of future risk to the general population, and that the risk would be increased above recently published estimates if the incidence of skin cancer and the increased risk from exposure to x-rays compared with high-energy photons were taken into account; (b) indoor radon is a significant contributor to the baseline risk of lung cancer, particularly among people who have never smoked; and (c) members of the public who were exposed in childhood to I in fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and were diagnosed with thyroid cancer later in life would frequently meet criteria established for federal compensation of cancers experienced by energy workers and military participants at atmospheric weapons tests. Risk estimation also enables comparisons of impacts of exposures to radiation and chemical carcinogens and other hazards to life and health. Communication of risk with

  14. A novel method for the evaluation of uncertainty in dose volume histogram computation

    CERN Document Server

    Cutanda-Henriquez, Francisco

    2007-01-01

    Dose volume histograms are a useful tool in state-of-the-art radiotherapy planning, and it is essential to be aware of their limitations. Dose distributions computed by treatment planning systems are affected by several sources of uncertainty such as algorithm limitations, measurement uncertainty in the data used to model the beam and residual differences between measured and computed dose, once the model is optimized. In order to take into account the effect of uncertainty, a probabilistic approach is proposed and a new kind of histogram, a dose-expected volume histogram, is introduced. The expected value of the volume in the region of interest receiving an absorbed dose equal or greater than a certain value is found using the probability distribution of the dose at each point. A rectangular probability distribution is assumed for this point dose, and a relationship is given for practical computations. This method is applied to a set of dose volume histograms for different regions of interest for 6 brain pat...

  15. ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE RADIATION DOSES FOR THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Shagina, N. B.

    2009-10-23

    In order to provide more accurate and precise estimates of individual dose (and thus more precise estimates of radiation risk) for the members of the ETRC, a new dosimetric calculation system, the Techa River Dosimetry System-2009 (TRDS-2009) has been prepared. The deterministic version of the improved dosimetry system TRDS-2009D was basically completed in April 2009. Recent developments in evaluation of dose-response models in light of uncertain dose have highlighted the importance of different types of uncertainties in the development of individual dose estimates. These include uncertain parameters that may be either shared or unshared within the dosimetric cohort, and also the nature of the type of uncertainty as aleatory or epistemic and either classical or Berkson. This report identifies the nature of the various input parameters and calculational methods incorporated in the Techa River Dosimetry System (based on the TRDS-2009D implementation), with the intention of preparing a stochastic version to estimate the uncertainties in the dose estimates. This report reviews the equations, databases, and input parameters, and then identifies the author’s interpretations of their general nature. It presents the approach selected so that the stochastic, Monte-Carlo, implementation of the dosimetry System - TRDS-2009MC - will provide useful information regarding the uncertainties of the doses.

  16. Impact of photon cross section systematic uncertainties on Monte Carlo-determined depth-dose distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Aguirre, Eder; David, Mariano; deAlmeida, Carlos E

    2016-01-01

    This work studies the impact of systematic uncertainties associated to interaction cross sections on depth dose curves determined by Monte Carlo simulations. The corresponding sensitivity factors are quantified by changing cross sections in a given amount and determining the variation in the dose. The influence of total cross sections for all particles, photons and only for Compton scattering is addressed. The PENELOPE code was used in all simulations. It was found that photon cross section sensitivity factors depend on depth. In addition, they are positive and negative for depths below and above an equilibrium depth, respectively. At this depth, sensitivity factors are null. The equilibrium depths found in this work agree very well with the mean free path of the corresponding incident photon energy. Using the sensitivity factors reported here, it is possible to estimate the impact of photon cross section uncertainties on the uncertainty of Monte Carlo-determined depth dose curves.

  17. Individual dose due to radioactivity accidental release from fusion reactor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Baojie; Ni, Muyi; Wei, Shiping

    2017-04-05

    As an important index shaping the design of fusion safety system, evaluation of public radiation consequences have risen as a hot topic on the way to develop fusion energy. In this work, the comprehensive public early dose was evaluated due to unit gram tritium (HT/HTO), activated dust, activated corrosion products (ACPs) and activated gases accidental release from ITER like fusion reactor. Meanwhile, considering that we cannot completely eliminate the occurrence likelihood of multi-failure of vacuum vessel and tokamak building, we conservatively evaluated the public radiation consequences and environment restoration after the worst hypothetical accident preliminarily. The comparison results show early dose of different unit radioactivity release under different conditions. After further performing the radiation consequences, we find it possible that the hypothetical accident for ITER like fusion reactor would result in a level 6 accident according to INES, not appear level 7 like Chernobyl or Fukushima accidents. And from the point of environment restoration, we need at least 69 years for case 1 (1kg HTO and 1000kg dust release) and 34-52years for case 2 (1kg HTO and 10kg-100kg dust release) to wait the contaminated zone drop below the general public safety limit (1mSv per year) before it is suitable for human habitation.

  18. Uncertainty Representation Method for Open Pit Optimization Results Due to Variation in Mineral Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieun Baek

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a new method to quantitatively represent the uncertainty existing in open pit optimization results due to variations in mineral prices. After generating multiple mineral prices using Monte Carlo simulation with data on past mineral prices, a probability model that represents the uncertainty was developed by integrating multiple open pit optimization results derived from the mineral prices. The results of applying the proposed method to the copper-zinc deposits showed that significant uncertainty exists in open pit optimization results due to the variation in copper prices. It was also found that the method has a potential as a tool for classifying the estimation results of ore reserve based on confidence level.

  19. Theoretical Uncertainties due to AGN Subgrid Models in Predictions of Galaxy Cluster Observable Properties

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, H -Y K; Ricker, P M

    2012-01-01

    Cosmological constraints derived from galaxy clusters rely on accurate predictions of cluster observable properties, in which feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) is a critical component. In order to model the physical effects due to supermassive black holes (SMBH) on cosmological scales, subgrid modeling is required, and a variety of implementations have been developed in the literature. However, theoretical uncertainties due to model and parameter variations are not yet well understood, limiting the predictive power of simulations including AGN feedback. By performing a detailed parameter sensitivity study in a single cluster using several commonly-adopted AGN accretion and feedback models with FLASH, we quantify the model uncertainties in predictions of cluster integrated properties. We find that quantities that are more sensitive to gas density have larger uncertainties (~20% for Mgas and a factor of ~2 for Lx at R500), whereas Tx, Ysz, and Yx are more robust (~10-20% at R500). To make predictions b...

  20. Evaluation of the uncertainty due to land cover observation and conversion into plant functional types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgievski, Goran; Hartley, Andrew; MacBean, Natasha; Hagemann, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Land surface processes represented in the latest generation of climate models (IPCC AR5) use the concept of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) to group different vegetation types and species according to similar physiological, biochemical and structural characteristics. The 5th IPCC Assessment Report recognizes the role of the Land Surface Models (LSMs) as one of the key contributors to uncertainty in climate change impacts projections. In the frame of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI), a new global land cover (LC) data set was derived. We aim to investigate two sources of uncertainties in LSMs and their ranges: (i) uncertainty of ESA-CCI state of the art satellite observation of LC classes, and (ii) uncertainty due to LC conversion ("cross-walking (CW) procedure") into PFTs. Therefore, we have derived 5 perturbations of PFTs maps: (i) reference map (REF), (ii) map that minimizes biomass in LC observation and CW procedure (MinLC MinCW), (iii) map that minimizes biomass in LC observation with reference CW procedure (MinLC RefCW), (iv) map that maximizes biomass in LC observation with reference CW procedure (MaxLC RefCW), and (v) map that maximizes biomass in LC observation and CW procedure (MaxLC MaxCW). Our analysis demonstrates that there is still considerable uncertainty in the methods used to convert LC classes into the PFTs used by LSMs. Furthermore, uncertainty in the labelling of LC classes has an equal magnitude compared to the cross-walking uncertainty. In the next phase, we aim to quantify the sensitivity of the carbon, hydrological and energy cycles to LC and CW uncertainty with 3 LSMs (JSBACH, JULES, and ORHCIDEE). This work will enable us to both advice the land cover mapping community about the accuracy requirements for land cover maps, and to provide insights to the earth system modelling community on the implications of decisions taken when converting from land cover classes to PFTs.

  1. Exploring the uncertainty in attributing sediment contributions in fingerprinting studies due to uncertainty in determining element concentrations in source areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Jose Alfonso; Owens, Phillip N.; Koiter, Alex J.; Lobb, David

    2016-04-01

    One of the major sources of uncertainty in attributing sediment sources in fingerprinting studies is the uncertainty in determining the concentrations of the elements used in the mixing model due to the variability of the concentrations of these elements in the source materials (e.g., Kraushaar et al., 2015). The uncertainty in determining the "true" concentration of a given element in each one of the source areas depends on several factors, among them the spatial variability of that element, the sampling procedure and sampling density. Researchers have limited control over these factors, and usually sampling density tends to be sparse, limited by time and the resources available. Monte Carlo analysis has been used regularly in fingerprinting studies to explore the probable solutions within the measured variability of the elements in the source areas, providing an appraisal of the probability of the different solutions (e.g., Collins et al., 2012). This problem can be considered analogous to the propagation of uncertainty in hydrologic models due to uncertainty in the determination of the values of the model parameters, and there are many examples of Monte Carlo analysis of this uncertainty (e.g., Freeze, 1980; Gómez et al., 2001). Some of these model analyses rely on the simulation of "virtual" situations that were calibrated from parameter values found in the literature, with the purpose of providing insight about the response of the model to different configurations of input parameters. This approach - evaluating the answer for a "virtual" problem whose solution could be known in advance - might be useful in evaluating the propagation of uncertainty in mixing models in sediment fingerprinting studies. In this communication, we present the preliminary results of an on-going study evaluating the effect of variability of element concentrations in source materials, sampling density, and the number of elements included in the mixing models. For this study a virtual

  2. GCR Environmental Models III: GCR Model Validation and Propagated Uncertainties in Effective Dose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaba, Tony C.; Xu, Xiaojing; Blattnig, Steve R.; Norman, Ryan B.

    2014-01-01

    This is the last of three papers focused on quantifying the uncertainty associated with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) models used for space radiation shielding applications. In the first paper, it was found that GCR ions with Z>2 and boundary energy below 500 MeV/nucleon induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This is an important finding since GCR model development and validation have been heavily biased toward Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer measurements below 500 MeV/nucleon. Weights were also developed that quantify the relative contribution of defined GCR energy and charge groups to effective dose behind shielding. In the second paper, it was shown that these weights could be used to efficiently propagate GCR model uncertainties into effective dose behind shielding. In this work, uncertainties are quantified for a few commonly used GCR models. A validation metric is developed that accounts for measurements uncertainty, and the metric is coupled to the fast uncertainty propagation method. For this work, the Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) 2010 and 2011 and the Matthia GCR models are compared to an extensive measurement database. It is shown that BON2011 systematically overestimates heavy ion fluxes in the range 0.5-4 GeV/nucleon. The BON2010 and BON2011 also show moderate and large errors in reproducing past solar activity near the 2000 solar maximum and 2010 solar minimum. It is found that all three models induce relative errors in effective dose in the interval [-20%, 20%] at a 68% confidence level. The BON2010 and Matthia models are found to have similar overall uncertainty estimates and are preferred for space radiation shielding applications.

  3. Robust Design Optimization Method for Centrifugal Impellers under Surface Roughness Uncertainties Due to Blade Fouling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Yaping; ZHANG Chuhua

    2016-01-01

    Blade fouling has been proved to be a great threat to compressor performance in operating stage. The current researches on fouling-induced performance degradations of centrifugal compressors are based mainly on simplified roughness models without taking into account the realistic factors such as spatial non-uniformity and randomness of the fouling-induced surface roughness. Moreover, little attention has been paid to the robust design optimization of centrifugal compressor impellers with considerations of blade fouling. In this paper, a multi-objective robust design optimization method is developed for centrifugal impellers under surface roughness uncertainties due to blade fouling. A three-dimensional surface roughness map is proposed to describe the nonuniformity and randomness of realistic fouling accumulations on blades. To lower computational cost in robust design optimization, the support vector regression (SVR) metamodel is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method to conduct the uncertainty analysis of fouled impeller performance. The analyzed results show that the critical fouled region associated with impeller performance degradations lies at the leading edge of blade tip. The SVR metamodel has been proved to be an efficient and accurate means in the detection of impeller performance variations caused by roughness uncertainties. After design optimization, the robust optimal design is found to be more efficient and less sensitive to fouling uncertainties while maintaining good impeller performance in the clean condition. This research proposes a systematic design optimization method for centrifugal compressors with considerations of blade fouling, providing a practical guidance to the design of advanced centrifugal compressors.

  4. Robust design optimization method for centrifugal impellers under surface roughness uncertainties due to blade fouling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Yaping; Zhang, Chuhua

    2016-03-01

    Blade fouling has been proved to be a great threat to compressor performance in operating stage. The current researches on fouling-induced performance degradations of centrifugal compressors are based mainly on simplified roughness models without taking into account the realistic factors such as spatial non-uniformity and randomness of the fouling-induced surface roughness. Moreover, little attention has been paid to the robust design optimization of centrifugal compressor impellers with considerations of blade fouling. In this paper, a multi-objective robust design optimization method is developed for centrifugal impellers under surface roughness uncertainties due to blade fouling. A three-dimensional surface roughness map is proposed to describe the nonuniformity and randomness of realistic fouling accumulations on blades. To lower computational cost in robust design optimization, the support vector regression (SVR) metamodel is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method to conduct the uncertainty analysis of fouled impeller performance. The analyzed results show that the critical fouled region associated with impeller performance degradations lies at the leading edge of blade tip. The SVR metamodel has been proved to be an efficient and accurate means in the detection of impeller performance variations caused by roughness uncertainties. After design optimization, the robust optimal design is found to be more efficient and less sensitive to fouling uncertainties while maintaining good impeller performance in the clean condition. This research proposes a systematic design optimization method for centrifugal compressors with considerations of blade fouling, providing a practical guidance to the design of advanced centrifugal compressors.

  5. Quantifying uncertainties in N(2O emission due to N fertilizer application in cultivated areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurore Philibert

    Full Text Available Nitrous oxide (N(2O is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential approximately 298 times greater than that of CO(2. In 2006, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC estimated N(2O emission due to synthetic and organic nitrogen (N fertilization at 1% of applied N. We investigated the uncertainty on this estimated value, by fitting 13 different models to a published dataset including 985 N(2O measurements. These models were characterized by (i the presence or absence of the explanatory variable "applied N", (ii the function relating N(2O emission to applied N (exponential or linear function, (iii fixed or random background (i.e. in the absence of N application N(2O emission and (iv fixed or random applied N effect. We calculated ranges of uncertainty on N(2O emissions from a subset of these models, and compared them with the uncertainty ranges currently used in the IPCC-Tier 1 method. The exponential models outperformed the linear models, and models including one or two random effects outperformed those including fixed effects only. The use of an exponential function rather than a linear function has an important practical consequence: the emission factor is not constant and increases as a function of applied N. Emission factors estimated using the exponential function were lower than 1% when the amount of N applied was below 160 kg N ha(-1. Our uncertainty analysis shows that the uncertainty range currently used by the IPCC-Tier 1 method could be reduced.

  6. Use of motion tracking in stereotactic body radiotherapy: Evaluation of uncertainty in off-target dose distribution and optimization strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casamassima, F. [Univ. di Firenze, Florence (Italy). Dept. di Fisiopatologia Clinica; Cavedon, C.; Francescon, P.; Stancanello, J.; Avanzo, M.; Cora, S.; Scalchi, P. [Ospedale S.Bortolo, Vicenza (Italy). Servizio di Fisica Sanitaria

    2006-09-15

    Spatial accuracy in extracranial radiosurgery is affected by organ motion. Motion tracking systems may be able to avoid PTV enlargement while preserving treatment times, however special attention is needed when fiducial markers are used to identify the target can move with respect to organs at risk (OARs). Ten patients treated by means of the Synchrony system were taken into account. Sparing of irradiated volume and of complication probability were estimated by calculating treatment plans with a motion tracking system (Cyberknife Synchrony, Sunnyvale, CA (US). ) and a PTV-enlargement strategy for ten patients. Six patients were also evaluated for possible inaccuracy of estimation of dose to OARs due to relative movement between PTV and OAR during respiration. Dose volume histograms (DVH) and Equivalent Uniform Dose (EUD) were calculated for the organs at risk. In the cases for which the target moved closer to the OAR (three cases of six), a small but significant increase was detected in the DVH and EUD of the OAR. In three other cases no significant variation was detected. Mean reduction in PTV volume was 38% for liver cases, 44% for lung cases and 8.5% for pancreas cases. NTCP for liver reduced from 23.1 to 14.5% on average, for lung it reduced from 2.5 to 0.1% on average. Significant uncertainty may arise from the use of a motion-tracking device in determination of dose to organs at risk due to the relative motion between PTV and OAR. However, it is possible to limit this uncertainty. The breathing phase in which the OAR is closer to the PTV should be selected for planning. A full understanding of the dose distribution would only be possible by means of a complete 4D-CT representation.

  7. Uncertainties in Monte Carlo-based absorbed dose calculations for an experimental benchmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, F; Wulff, J; Kapsch, R-P; Zink, K

    2015-10-01

    There is a need to verify the accuracy of general purpose Monte Carlo codes like EGSnrc, which are commonly employed for investigations of dosimetric problems in radiation therapy. A number of experimental benchmarks have been published to compare calculated values of absorbed dose to experimentally determined values. However, there is a lack of absolute benchmarks, i.e. benchmarks without involved normalization which may cause some quantities to be cancelled. Therefore, at the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt a benchmark experiment was performed, which aimed at the absolute verification of radiation transport calculations for dosimetry in radiation therapy. A thimble-type ionization chamber in a solid phantom was irradiated by high-energy bremsstrahlung and the mean absorbed dose in the sensitive volume was measured per incident electron of the target. The characteristics of the accelerator and experimental setup were precisely determined and the results of a corresponding Monte Carlo simulation with EGSnrc are presented within this study. For a meaningful comparison, an analysis of the uncertainty of the Monte Carlo simulation is necessary. In this study uncertainties with regard to the simulation geometry, the radiation source, transport options of the Monte Carlo code and specific interaction cross sections are investigated, applying the general methodology of the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement. Besides studying the general influence of changes in transport options of the EGSnrc code, uncertainties are analyzed by estimating the sensitivity coefficients of various input quantities in a first step. Secondly, standard uncertainties are assigned to each quantity which are known from the experiment, e.g. uncertainties for geometric dimensions. Data for more fundamental quantities such as photon cross sections and the I-value of electron stopping powers are taken from literature. The significant uncertainty contributions are identified as

  8. Uncertainty in Earthquake Source Imaging Due to Variations in Source Time Function and Earth Structure

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.

    2014-03-25

    One way to improve the accuracy and reliability of kinematic earthquake source imaging is to investigate the origin of uncertainty and to minimize their effects. The difficulties in kinematic source inversion arise from the nonlinearity of the problem, nonunique choices in the parameterization, and observational errors. We analyze particularly the uncertainty related to the choice of the source time function (STF) and the variability in Earth structure. We consider a synthetic data set generated from a spontaneous dynamic rupture calculation. Using Bayesian inference, we map the solution space of peak slip rate, rupture time, and rise time to characterize the kinematic rupture in terms of posterior density functions. Our test to investigate the effect of the choice of STF reveals that all three tested STFs (isosceles triangle, regularized Yoffe with acceleration time of 0.1 and 0.3 s) retrieve the patch of high slip and slip rate around the hypocenter. However, the use of an isosceles triangle as STF artificially accelerates the rupture to propagate faster than the target solution. It additionally generates an artificial linear correlation between rupture onset time and rise time. These appear to compensate for the dynamic source effects that are not included in the symmetric triangular STF. The exact rise time for the tested STFs is difficult to resolve due to the small amount of radiated seismic moment in the tail of STF. To highlight the effect of Earth structure variability, we perform inversions including the uncertainty in the wavespeed only, and variability in both wavespeed and layer depth. We find that little difference is noticeable between the resulting rupture model uncertainties from these two parameterizations. Both significantly broaden the posterior densities and cause faster rupture propagation particularly near the hypocenter due to the major velocity change at the depth where the fault is located.

  9. Modulation index for VMAT considering both mechanical and dose calculation uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; Kim, Hyoungnyoun

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study is to present a modulation index considering both mechanical and dose calculation uncertainties for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). As a modulation index considering only mechanical uncertainty of VMAT, MIt has been previously suggested. In this study, we developed a weighting factor which represents dose calculation uncertainty based on the aperture shapes of fluence maps at every control point of VMAT plans. In order to calculate the weighting factor, the thinning algorithm of image processing techniques was applied to measure field aperture irregularity. By combining this weighting factor with the previously suggested modulation index, MIt, comprehensive modulation index (MIc) was designed. To evaluate the performance of MIc, gamma passing rates, differences in mechanical parameters between plans and log files and differences in dose-volume parameters between plans and the plans reconstructed from log files were acquired with a total of 52 VMAT plans. Spearman’s correlation coefficients (rs) between the values of MIc and measures of VMAT delivery accuracy were calculated. The rs values of MIc (f = 0.5) to global gamma passing rates with 2%/2 mm, 1%/2 mm and 2%/1 mm were  -0.728,-0.847 and  -0.617, respectively (p  VMAT delivery accuracy showing strong correlations to various measures of VMAT delivery accuracy.

  10. Impact of photon cross section uncertainties on Monte Carlo-determined depth-dose distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, E; David, M; deAlmeida, C E; Bernal, M A

    2016-09-01

    This work studies the impact of systematic uncertainties associated to interaction cross sections on depth dose curves determined by Monte Carlo simulations. The corresponding sensitivity factors are quantified by changing cross sections by a given amount and determining the variation in the dose. The influence of total and partial photon cross sections is addressed. Partial cross sections for Compton and Rayleigh scattering, photo-electric effect, and pair production have been accounted for. The PENELOPE code was used in all simulations. It was found that photon cross section sensitivity factors depend on depth. In addition, they are positive and negative for depths below and above an equilibrium depth, respectively. At this depth, sensitivity factors are null. The equilibrium depths found in this work agree very well with the mean free path of the corresponding incident photon energy. Using the sensitivity factors reported here, it is possible to estimate the impact of photon cross section uncertainties on the uncertainty of Monte Carlo-determined depth dose curves.

  11. Doses due to extra-vehicular activity on space stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deme, S.; Apathy, I.; Feher, I. [KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, Budapest (Hungary); Akatov, Y.; Arkhanguelski, V. [Institute of Biomedical Problems, State Scientific Center, Moscow (Russian Federation); Reitz, G. [DLR Institute of Aerospace Medicine, Cologne, Linder Hohe (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    One of the many risks of long duration space flight is the dose from cosmic radiation, especially during periods of intensive solar activity. At such times, particularly during extra-vehicular activity (E.V.A.), when the astronauts are not protected by the wall of the spacecraft, cosmic radiation is a potentially serious health threat. Accurate dose measurement becomes increasingly important during the assembly of large space objects. Passive integrating detector systems such as thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) are commonly used for dosimetric mapping and personal dosimetry on space vehicles. K.F.K.I. Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed and manufactured a series of thermoluminescent dosimeter systems, called Pille, for measuring cosmic radiation doses in the 3 {mu}Gy to 10 Gy range, consisting of a set of CaSO{sub 4}:Dy bulb dosimeters and a small, compact, TLD reader suitable for on-board evaluation of the dosimeters. Such a system offers a solution for E.V.A. dosimetry as well. By means of such a system, highly accurate measurements were carried out on board the Salyut-6, -7 and Mir Space Stations, on the Space Shuttle, and most recently on several segments of the International Space Station (I.S.S.). The Pille system was used to make the first measurements of the radiation exposure of cosmonauts during E.V.A.. Such E.V.A. measurements were carried out twice (on June 12 and 16, 1987) by Y. Romanenko, the commander of the second crew of Mir. During the E.V.A. one of the dosimeters was fixed in a pocket on the outer surface of the left leg of his space-suit; a second dosimeter was located inside the station for reference measurements. The advanced TLD system Pille 96 was used during the Nasa-4 (1997) mission to monitor the cosmic radiation dose inside the Mir Space Station and to measure the exposure of two of the astronauts during their E.V.A. activities. The extra doses of two E.V.A. during the Euromir 95 and one E.V.A. during the Nasa4 experiment

  12. An assessment of bias and uncertainty in recorded dose from external sources of radiation for workers at the Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fix, J.J.; Gilbert, E.S.; Baumgartner, W.V.

    1994-08-01

    Worker dose estimates are used in epidemiologic studies of nuclear workers. A major objective of these studies is to provide a direct assessment of the carcinogenic risk of exposure to ionizing radiation at low doses and dose rates. If dose estimates used in analyses of worker data are biased, then risk estimates expressed per unit of dose will also be biased. In addition, random error in dose estimates may lead to underestimation of risk coefficients and can also distort dose-response analyses. Analyses of data from nuclear worker studies, including Hanford, have typically not been adjusted for biases and uncertainties in dose estimates in part because of the lack of adequate information on the nature and magnitude of these biases and uncertainties. This report describes an approach used to assess bias and uncertainty in radiation dose for Hanford dosimetry systems. The approach can be considered as an elaboration of work conducted by a technical committee appointed by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) used to quantify the bias and uncertainty in estimated doses for personnel exposed to radiation as a result of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons between 1945 and 1962. In addition, laboratory studies were conducted to measure bias for selected sources of photon radiation resulting from angular response characteristics of Hanford dosimeter systems. An overall assessment is presented of bias and uncertainty for photon radiation greater than 100 keV. This radiation is expected to have caused the vast majority of recorded dose for Hanford workers.

  13. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2017-08-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  14. Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Bikesh; Cochrane, Thomas A.; Caruso, Brian S.; Arias, Mauricio E.; Piman, Thanapon

    2016-09-01

    Reliable projections of discharge and sediment are essential for future water and sediment management plans under climate change, but these are subject to numerous uncertainties. This study assessed the uncertainty in flow and sediment projections using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with three Global Climate Models (GCMs), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and three model parameter (MP) sets for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong River Basin. The uncertainty was analyzed for the short term future (2021-2040 or 2030s) and long term future (2051-2070 or 2060s) time horizons. Results show that dominant sources of uncertainty in flow and sediment constituents vary spatially across the 3S basin. For peak flow, peak sediment, and wet seasonal flows projection, the greatest uncertainty sources also vary with time horizon. For 95% low flows and for seasonal and annual flow projections, GCM and MP were the major sources of uncertainty, whereas RCPs had less of an effect. The uncertainty due to RCPs is large for annual sediment load projections. While model parameterization is the major source of uncertainty in the short term (2030s), GCMs and RCPs are the major contributors to uncertainty in flow and sediment projections in the longer term (2060s). Overall, the uncertainty in sediment load projections is larger than the uncertainty in flow projections. In general, our results suggest the need to investigate the major contributing sources of uncertainty in large basins temporally and at different scales, as this can have major consequences for water and sediment management decisions. Further, since model parameterization uncertainty can play a significant role for flow and sediment projections, there is a need to incorporate hydrological model parameter uncertainty in climate change studies and efforts to reduce the parameter uncertainty as much as possible should be considered through a careful calibration and validation process.

  15. Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Kodros

    2015-04-01

    effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse-gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on: (1 emissions mass, (2 emission size distribution, (3 mixing state, and (4 ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

  16. SU-E-T-288: Dose Volume Population Histogram (DVPH): A New Method to Evaluate Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy Plans With Geometrical Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, T; Mai, N [University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City (Viet Nam); Nguyen, B [Prowess Inc, Concord, CA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: In Proton therapy, especially intensity modulated proton therapy(IMPT), the dose distribution shape is very sensitive to errors due to sharp dose gradients at the Bragg peaks. The concept of the conventional margin is based on the assumption that dose distribution is shifted rather than deformed due to geometrical uncertainties. The goal of this study is to access the validity of the margin concept as well as propose a new approach using Dose Volume Population Histogram (DVPH) in evaluating IMPT plans. Methods: For a prostate case, an intensity modulated proton therapy is optimized based on the conventional PTV based objective function. The plan is evaluated based on the PTV DVH and CTV DVPH (dose volume population histogram) which explicitly taking into account geometric uncertainties. The DVPH is calculated based on 2197 dose distributions at different CTV possible positions for both random and systematic errors. The DVPH with a 90% confidence level is used for the comparison. Results: The minimum dose of the CTV DVPH with a 90% confidence level is only about 18% of the prescribed dose, while the minimum dose of the PTV is 95%. For bladder DVHs, the D50 and D35 is 26% and 30%, compared to 65% and 70% of the prescribed dose from the bladder DVPH with 90% confidence level. Conclusion: The results showed that the PTV concept for ensuring the prescribed dose actually delivered to the CTV is invalid in proton therapy. The good PTV DVH might Result in an underdose to the target and should not be used for IMPT optimization. For OARs, the conventional evaluation approach underestimates dose volume end points. The new concept DVPH has been proved to provide a more accurate DVH evaluation in proton therapy.

  17. Uncertainty analysis in the determination of absorbed dose in water by Fricke chemical dosimetry; Analise das incertezas na determinacao da dose absorvida na agua por dosimetria quimica Fricke

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Fabia; Aguirre, Eder Aguirre, E-mail: fabiavasco@hotmail.com, E-mail: ederuni01@gmail.com [Fundacao do Cancer, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    This work studies the calculations of uncertainties and the level of confidence that involves the process for obtaining the dose absorbed in water using the method of Fricke dosimetry, developed at Laboratorio de Ciencias Radiologicas (LCR). Measurements of absorbance of samples Fricke, irradiated and non-irradiated is going to use in order to calculate the respective sensitivity coefficients, along with the expressions of the calculation of Fricke dose and the absorbed dose in water. Those expressions are used for calculating the others sensitivity coefficients from the input variable. It is going to use the combined uncertainty and the expanded uncertainty, with a level of confidence of 95.45%, in order to report the uncertainties of the measurement. (author)

  18. Uncertainty analysis of occupational radiation exposure dose for APR1400 design certification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kyo Min; Lee, Chong Hui; Lee, Dong Su; Kim, Byung Il; Kang, Sang Ho [Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) E and C Inc., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Son, Jung Gwon [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) Central Research Institue (CRI), Gyeongju (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-11-15

    While it is required to include the anticipated Occupational Radiation Exposure (ORE) in the DC application, the ORE data for APR1400 is not available, since the first APR1400 is under construction in Korea. Therefore, this study performs the uncertainty analysis to estimate the expected ORE dose for APR1400 DC using the experience data from the operating plant in Korea based on the methodology specified in NRC Regulatory Guide(RG) 8.19. According to the results, if the design improvements are taken into account, it is found that the median value of APR1400 ORE dose, even for the case of 95 percentile value is within the design target of 1 man-Sv.

  19. Uncertainties in atmospheric chemistry modelling due to convection parameterisations and subsequent scavenging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tost

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Moist convection in global modelling contributes significantly to the transport of energy, momentum, water and trace gases and aerosols within the troposphere. Since convective clouds are on a scale too small to be resolved in a global model their effects have to be parameterised. However, the whole process of moist convection and especially its parameterisations are associated with uncertainties. In contrast to previous studies on the impact of convection on trace gases, which had commonly neglected the convective transport for some or all compounds, we investigate this issue by examining simulations with five different convection schemes. This permits an uncertainty analysis due to the process formulation, without the inconsistencies inherent in entirely neglecting deep convection or convective tracer transport for one or more tracers.

    Both the simulated mass fluxes and tracer distributions are analysed. Investigating the distributions of compounds with different characteristics, e.g., lifetime, chemical reactivity, solubility and source distributions, some differences can be attributed directly to the transport of these compounds, whereas others are more related to indirect effects, such as the transport of precursors, chemical reactivity in certain regions, and sink processes.

    The model simulation data are compared with the average regional profiles of several measurement campaigns, and in detail with two campaigns in fall and winter 2005 in Suriname and Australia, respectively.

    The shorter-lived a compound is, the larger the differences and consequently the uncertainty due to the convection parameterisation are, as long as it is not completely controlled by local production that is independent of convection and its impacts (e.g. water vapour changes. Whereas for long-lived compounds like CO or O3 the mean differences between the simulations are less than 25%, differences for short-lived compounds reach

  20. Uncertainties on decay heat power due to fission product data uncertainties; Incertitudes sur la puissance residuelle dues aux incertitudes sur les donnees de produits de fission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rebah, J

    1998-08-01

    Following a reactor shutdown, after the fission process has completely faded out, a significant quantity of energy known as 'decay heat' continues to be generated in the core. The knowledge with a good precision of the decay heat released in a fuel after reactor shutdown is necessary for: residual heat removal for normal operation or emergency shutdown condition, the design of cooling systems and spent fuel handling. By the summation calculations method, the decay heat is equal to the sum of the energies released by individual fission products. Under taking into account all nuclides that contribute significantly to the total decay heat, the results from summation method are comparable with the measured ones. Without the complete covariance information of nuclear data, the published uncertainty analyses of fission products decay heat summation calculation give underestimated errors through the variance/covariance analysis in consideration of correlation between the basic nuclear data, we calculate in this work the uncertainties on the decay heat associated with the summation calculations. Contribution to the total error of decay heat comes from uncertainties in three terms: fission yields, half-lives and average beta and gamma decay energy. (author)

  1. Relapse of tardive dyskinesia due to reduction in clozapine dose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrivastava Meena

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Clozapine is a second-generation (atypical antipsychotic agent, which has been proven efficient against the positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia, with a low propensity to induce tardive dyskinesia (TD. Compared with typical antipsychotics, it has a greater affinity for dopamine D4 than D2 receptors and additional action on serotonin 5-HT 2A receptors. Due to its weak D 2 blocking action, it produces few extra pyramidal side effects and TD is rare. TD is one of the muscular side effects of antipsychotic drugs, especially the older generation like haloperidol. TD does not occur until after many months or years of taking antipsychotic drugs. TD is primarily characterized by abnormal involuntary movements of the tongue, lips or jaw, as well as facial grimacing or extremities that develop in association with the use of antipsychotic medications. TD can be embarrassing to the affected patient in public. The movements disappear during sleep and women are at greater risk than men for developing TD.

  2. SU-E-J-62: Estimating Plausible Treatment Course Dose Distributions by Accounting for Registration Uncertainty and Organ Motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thor, M; Saleh, Z; Oh, JH; Apte, A; Deasy, J [Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Centre, NY City, NY (United States); Muren, L [Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus C (Denmark)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Dose accumulation following deformable image registration (DIR) is challenging. In this study, we used a statistical sampling approach, which takes into account both DIR uncertainties and patient-specific organ motion, to study the distribution of possible true dose distributions. Methods: The study included ten patients (six CT scans/patient) treated with radiotherapy for prostate cancer. For each patient, the planned dose was re-calculated on the repeated geometries, following rigid registration based on fiducial markers. The dose re-calculated on the first CT served as our snapshot dose distribution (D1) and the average of the first five repeat scans as our treatment course reference dose distribution (Dref). Patient-specific motion and DIR-uncertainties, at each voxel in CT1, were assessed using a previously developed DIR performance measure, the distance discordance metric (DDM). To sample the distribution of possible true, predicted dose distributions (Dpred), we resampled D1 by perturbing the location of each voxel with the corresponding DDM. The three dose distribution approaches are compared for the rectum and the bladder. Results: The bladder generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) from the averaged Dpred was closer to the gEUDref than to the gEUD1 (difference: 0.6 vs. 1.0 Gy). For both structures, the gEUDpred was higher than the gEUDref, and significantly higher (p≤0.05) for the rectum (average: 50.8 Gy vs. 48.0 Gy). Conclusion: We have shown that the bladder gEUD values resulting from our DIR-uncertainty inclusive dose sampling approach, Dpred, were closer to the gEUD from Dref than the gEUD values from D1. For the rectum, gEUDpred overestimated gEUDref. Theoretically however, gEUDpred values, sampled from DDM uncertainties are more representative of dose uncertainties.

  3. Characterizing waveform uncertainty due to ambient noise for the Global Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guandique, J. A.; Burdick, S.; Lekic, V.

    2015-12-01

    Ambient seismic noise is the vibration present on seismograms not due by any earthquake or discrete source. It can be caused by trees swaying in the wind or trucks rumbling on the freeway, but the main source of noise is the microseism caused by ocean waves. The frequency content and amplitude of seismic noise varies due to weather, season, and the location of a station, among other factors. Because noise affects recordings of earthquake waveforms, better understanding it could improve the detection of small earthquakes, reduce false positives in earthquake early warning, and quantify uncertainty in waveform-based studies In this study, we used two years of 3-component accelerograms from stations in the GSN. We eliminate days with major earthquakes, aggregate analysis by month, and calculate the mean power spectrum for each component and the transfer function between components. For each power spectrum, we determine the dominant frequency and amplitude of the primary (PM) and secondary (SM) microseisms which appear at periods of ~14s and ~7s, as well as any other prominent peaks. The cross-component terms show that noise recorded on different components cannot be treated as independent. Trends in coherence and phase delay suggest directionality in the noise and information about in which modes it propagates. Preliminary results show that the noise on island stations exhibits less monthly variability, and its PM peaks tend to be much weaker than the SM peaks. The continental stations show much less consistent behavior, with higher variability in the PM peaks between stations and higher frequency content during winter months. Stations that are further inland have smaller SM peaks compared to coastal stations, which are more similar to island stations. Using these spectra and cross-component results, we develop a method for generating realistic 3-component seismic noise and covariance matrices, which can be used across various seismic applications.

  4. Loss of local control due to tumor displacement as a function of margin size, dose-response slope, and number of fractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Jothybasu; Uzan, Julien; Baker, Colin; Nahum, Alan

    2013-04-01

    Geometric uncertainties are inevitable in radiotherapy. To account for these uncertainties, a margin is added to the clinical target volume (CTV) to create the planning target volume (PTV), and its size is critical for obtaining an optimal treatment plan. Dose-based (i.e., physical) margin recipes have been published and widely used, but it is important to consider fractionation and the radiobiological characteristics of the tumor when deriving margins. Hence a tumor control probability (TCP)-based margin is arguably more appropriate. Margins required for ≤ 1% loss in mean population TCP (relative to a static tumor) for varying numbers of fractions, varying slope of the dose-response curve (γ50) and varying degrees of dose distribution conformity are investigated for spherical and four-field (4F)-brick dose distributions. To simulate geometric uncertainties, systematic (Σ) and random (σ) tumor displacements were sampled from Gaussian distributions and applied to each fraction for a spherical CTV. Interfraction tumor motion was simulated and the dose accumulated from fraction to fraction on a voxel-by-voxel basis to calculate TCP. PTV margins derived from this work for various fraction numbers and dose-response slopes (γ50) for different degrees of geometric uncertainties are compared with margins calculated using published physical-dose- and TCP-based recipes. Larger margins are required for a decrease in the number of fractions and for an increase in γ50 for both spherical and 4F-brick dose distributions. However, the margins can be close to zero for the 4F-brick distribution for small geometric uncertainties (Σ = 1, σ = 1 mm) irrespective of the number of fractions and the magnitude of γ50 due to the higher "incidental" dose outside the tumor. For Σ = 1 mm and σ = 3 mm, physical-dose-based recipes underestimate the margin only for the combination of hypofractionated treatments and tumors with a high γ50. For all other situations TCP-based margins are

  5. NASA space cancer risk model-2014: Uncertainties due to qualitative differences in biological effects of HZE particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis

    Uncertainties in estimating health risks from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — comprised of protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei are an important limitation to long duration space travel. HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation leading to large uncertainties in predicting risks to humans. Our NASA Space Cancer Risk Model-2012 (NSCR-2012) for estimating lifetime cancer risks from space radiation included several new features compared to earlier models from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) used at NASA. New features of NSCR-2012 included the introduction of NASA defined radiation quality factors based on track structure concepts, a Bayesian analysis of the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) and its uncertainty, and the use of a never-smoker population to represent astronauts. However, NSCR-2012 did not include estimates of the role of qualitative differences between HZE particles and low LET radiation. In this report we discuss evidence for non-targeted effects increasing cancer risks at space relevant HZE particle absorbed doses in tissue (Mars exploration will be described, and compared to those of our earlier NSCR-2012 model.

  6. The impact of uncertainties in the CT conversion algorithm when predicting proton beam ranges in patients from dose and PET-activity distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    España, Samuel; Paganetti, Harald

    2010-12-21

    The advantages of a finite range of proton beams can only be partly exploited in radiation therapy unless the range can be predicted in patient anatomy with proton-induced PET imaging aims at ∼2 mm accuracy in range verification. The latter is done using Monte Carlo predicted PET images. Monte Carlo methods are based on CT images to describe patient anatomy. The dose calculation algorithm and the CT resolution/artifacts might affect dose calculation accuracy. Additionally, when using Monte Carlo for PET range verification, the biological decay model and the cross sections for positron emitter production affect predicted PET images. The goal of this work is to study the effect of uncertainties in the CT conversion on the proton beam range predicted by Monte Carlo dose calculations and proton-induced PET signals. Conversion schemes to assign density and elemental composition based on a CT image of the patient define a unique Hounsfield unit (HU) to tissue parameters relationship. Uncertainties are introduced because there is no unique relationship between HU and tissue parameters. In this work, different conversion schemes based on a stoichiometric calibration method as well as different numbers of tissue bins were considered in three head and neck patients. For Monte Carlo dose calculation, the results show close to zero (proton dose distributions based on Monte Carlo calculation are only slightly affected by the uncertainty on density and elemental composition introduced by unique assignment to each HU if a stoichiometric calibration is used. Calculated PET images used for range verification are more sensitive to conversion uncertainties causing an intrinsic limitation due to CT conversion alone of at least 1 mm.

  7. Assessment of ocular beta radiation dose distribution due to 106Ru/106Rh brachytherapy applicators using MCNPX Monte Carlo code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilseia Aparecida Barbosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Melanoma at the choroid region is the most common primary cancer that affects the eye in adult patients. Concave ophthalmic applicators with 106Ru/106Rh beta sources are the more used for treatment of these eye lesions, mainly lesions with small and medium dimensions. The available treatment planning system for 106Ru applicators is based on dose distributions on a homogeneous water sphere eye model, resulting in a lack of data in the literature of dose distributions in the eye radiosensitive structures, information that may be crucial to improve the treatment planning process, aiming the maintenance of visual acuity. Methods: The Monte Carlo code MCNPX was used to calculate the dose distribution in a complete mathematical model of the human eye containing a choroid melanoma; considering the eye actual dimensions and its various component structures, due to an ophthalmic brachytherapy treatment, using 106Ru/106Rh beta-ray sources. Two possibilities were analyzed; a simple water eye and a heterogeneous eye considering all its structures. Two concave applicators, CCA and CCB manufactured by BEBIG and a complete mathematical model of the human eye were modeled using the MCNPX code. Results and Conclusion: For both eye models, namely water model and heterogeneous model, mean dose values simulated for the same eye regions are, in general, very similar, excepting for regions very distant from the applicator, where mean dose values are very low, uncertainties are higher and relative differences may reach 20.4%. For the tumor base and the eye structures closest to the applicator, such as sclera, choroid and retina, the maximum difference observed was 4%, presenting the heterogeneous model higher mean dose values. For the other eye regions, the higher doses were obtained when the homogeneous water eye model is taken into consideration. Mean dose distributions determined for the homogeneous water eye model are similar to those obtained for the

  8. The uncertainty of UTCI due to uncertainties in the determination of radiation fluxes derived from numerical weather prediction and regional climate model simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreier, Stefan F; Suomi, Irene; Bröde, Peter; Formayer, Herbert; Rieder, Harald E; Nadeem, Imram; Jendritzky, Gerd; Batchvarova, Ekaterina; Weihs, Philipp

    2013-03-01

    In this study we examine the determination accuracy of both the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) within the scope of numerical weather prediction (NWP), and global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate model simulations. First, Tmrt is determined and the so-called UTCI-Fiala model is then used for the calculation of UTCI. Taking into account the uncertainties of NWP model (among others the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model HIRLAM) output (temperature, downwelling short-wave and long-wave radiation) stated in the literature, we simulate and discuss the uncertainties of Tmrt and UTCI at three stations in different climatic regions of Europe. The results show that highest negative (positive) differences to reference cases (under assumed clear-sky conditions) of up to -21°C (9°C) for Tmrt and up to -6°C (3.5°C) for UTCI occur in summer (winter) due to cloudiness. In a second step, the uncertainties of RCM simulations are analyzed: three RCMs, namely ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational), RegCM (REGional Climate Model) and REMO (REgional MOdel) are nested into GCMs and used for the prediction of temperature and radiation fluxes in order to estimate Tmrt and UTCI. The inter-comparison of RCM output for the three selected locations shows that biases between 0.0 and ±17.7°C (between 0.0 and ±13.3°C) for Tmrt (UTCI), and RMSE between ±0.5 and ±17.8°C (between ±0.8 and ±13.4°C) for Tmrt (UTCI) may be expected. In general the study shows that uncertainties of UTCI, due to uncertainties arising from calculations of radiation fluxes (based on NWP models) required for the prediction of Tmrt, are well below ±2°C for clear-sky cases. However, significant higher uncertainties in UTCI of up to ±6°C are found, especially when prediction of cloudiness is wrong.

  9. Uncertainty in urban flood damage assessment due to urban drainage modelling and depth-damage curve estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

    2010-01-01

    Due to the increased occurrence of flooding events in urban areas, many procedures for flood damage quantification have been defined in recent decades. The lack of large databases in most cases is overcome by combining the output of urban drainage models and damage curves linking flooding to expected damage. The application of advanced hydraulic models as diagnostic, design and decision-making support tools has become a standard practice in hydraulic research and application. Flooding damage functions are usually evaluated by a priori estimation of potential damage (based on the value of exposed goods) or by interpolating real damage data (recorded during historical flooding events). Hydraulic models have undergone continuous advancements, pushed forward by increasing computer capacity. The details of the flooding propagation process on the surface and the details of the interconnections between underground and surface drainage systems have been studied extensively in recent years, resulting in progressively more reliable models. The same level of was advancement has not been reached with regard to damage curves, for which improvements are highly connected to data availability; this remains the main bottleneck in the expected flooding damage estimation. Such functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty intrinsically related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the adopted functional relationships. The present paper aimed to evaluate this uncertainty by comparing the intrinsic uncertainty connected to the construction of the damage-depth function to the hydraulic model uncertainty. In this way, the paper sought to evaluate the role of hydraulic model detail level in the wider context of flood damage estimation. This paper demonstrated that the use of detailed hydraulic models might not be justified because of the higher computational cost and the significant uncertainty in damage estimation curves. This uncertainty occurs mainly

  10. Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bei

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3 predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006 represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O3-North", "O3-South" and "Convection-North", respectively in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O3 predictions, including peak time O3 concentrations ([O3], horizontal and vertical O3 distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O3] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O3 period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O3 simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O3] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O3 predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions.

  11. MODARIA WG5: Towards a practical guidance for including uncertainties in the results of dose assessment of routine releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mora, Juan C. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA (Austria); Al Neaimi, Ahmed [Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation - ENEC (United Arab Emirates); Blixt Buhr, Anna Ma [Vattenfall AB (Sweden); Bonchuk, Iurii [Radiation Protection Institute - RPI (Ukraine); Chouhan, Sohan [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited - AECL (Canada); Chyly, Pavol [SE-VYZ (Slovakia); Curti, Adriana R. [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear - ARN (Argentina); Da Costa, Dejanira [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria - IRD (Brazil); Duran, Juraj [VUJE Inc (Slovakia); Galeriu, Dan [Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering - IFIN-HH (Romania); Haegg, Ann- Christin; Lager, Charlotte [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority - SSM (Sweden); Heling, Rudie [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group - NRG (Netherlands); Ivanis, Goran; Shen, Jige [Ecometrix Incorporated (Canada); Iosjpe, Mikhail [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority - NRPA (Norway); Krajewski, Pawel M. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection - CLOR (Poland); Marang, Laura; Vermorel, Fabien [Electricite de France - EdF (France); Mourlon, Christophe [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire - IRSN (France); Perez, Fabricio F. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre - SCK (Belgium); Woodruffe, Andrew [Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation - FANR (United Arab Emirates); Zorko, Benjamin [Jozef Stefan Institute (Slovenia)

    2014-07-01

    MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) project was launched in 2012 with the aim of improving the capabilities in radiation dose assessment by means of acquisition of improved data for model testing, model testing and comparison, reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter values, development of improved methods and exchange of information. The project focuses on areas where uncertainties remain in the predictive capability of environmental models, emphasizing in reducing associated uncertainties or developing new approaches to strengthen the evaluation of the radiological impact. Within MODARIA, four main areas were defined, one of them devoted to Uncertainty and Variability. In this area four working groups were included, Working Group 5 dealing with the 'uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides'. Whether doses are estimated by using measurement data, by applying models, or through a combination of measurements and calculations, the variability and uncertainty contribute to a distribution of possible values. The degree of variability and uncertainty is represented by the shape and extent of that distribution. The main objective of WG5 is to explore how to consider uncertainties and variabilities in the results of assessment of doses in planned situations for controlling the impact of routine releases from radioactive and nuclear installations to the environment. The final aim is to produce guidance for the calculation of uncertainties in these exposure situations and for the presentation of such results to the different stakeholders. To achieve that objective the main tasks identified were: to find tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments in routine radioactive discharges, to define scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available

  12. ROBUST DESIGN OF A TWO DEGREE FREEDOM SYSTEM DUE TO THE PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    A method based on the robust design optimization is presented to handle the structural uncertainty problems. The variations caused in dynamic performance can be expressed by the mean response and the standard deviation of the performance. The robust optimization approach, based on a multi-objective and non-deterministic method, attempts to both optimize the mean performance and minimize the variance of the performance simultaneously. The best possible design optimization is chosen by a trade-off decision. An example of robust design of a two degree freedom system is used to effectively illustrate the application in dynamics. The mass and stiffness uncertainty in the main system as well as the uncertainty of the mass, stiffness and damping in the absorber are considered all together in order to minimize the displacement response of the main system within a wide band of excitation frequencies. The robust optimization results show a significant improvement in performance compared with the conventional solution recommended from vibration textbooks. It is indicated that robust design methods have great potential for application in structural dynamics to deal with uncertainty problems.

  13. MO-A-213AB-09: Hypofractionated Proton Therapy of the Prostate: The Impact of the Uncertainties in Dose Delivery and Alpha/Beta Ratio on Tumor Dose Escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Trofimov, Alexei

    2012-06-01

    Hypofractionation is expected to improve therapeutic ratio for prostate radiotherapy, due to the relatively low alpha/beta ratio of the prostate tumor (∼1.2 to 2.0 Gy). However, the gain in tumor equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions (EQD2) is accompanied by the increased uncertainty in delivered dose due to inter-fractional variations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how this trade-off is affected by the uncertainty of the tumor alpha/beta. We used serial CT images acquired from two prostate cancer patients. Target and normal organs were contoured on the simulation and daily images. A 3D conformal proton plan was designed based on standard fractionation (78 Gy in 39 fractions) and renormalized for hypofractionation (between 5 and 28 fractions). The fraction size of the hypofractionated protocols was adjusted so as to maintain the maximum rectal dose at 78 Gy-EQD2 (alpha/beta = 3 Gy). The fractional dose, calculated on each daily CT, was mapped to the simulation geometry via deformable registration. The worst-case-scenario PTV dose for a hypofractionated protocol was estimated by summing the fractions (e.g., 28) with the lowest D97%. The target dose (e.g., D100%) was evaluated for alpha/beta of 1.2 to 2.0 Gy. The dose delivery uncertainty due to inter-fractional motion increased as the treatment became more hypofractionated. D100% was1.25, 1.46, 1.68 and 1.84 Gy, respectively. At alpha/beta of 2 Gy (1.2 Gy), D99% ranged from ∼79 (81) to 85 (98) Gy-EQD2 for treatments in 28 to 5 fractions. Below D97%, the target dose was predominantly determined by alpha/beta, and the motion impact was minimal. In prostate treatments, the impact of inter-fractional motion on tumor dose escalation is small for alpha/beta <2.0 Gy, and is of minimal concern to hypofractionated proton therapy. This study was supported by the Federal Share of program income earned by Massachusetts General Hospital on C06-CA059267, Proton Therapy Research and Treatment Center. © 2012 American

  14. Dose variation due to change in planned position for patients with carcinoma of the cervix undergoing high-dose-rate brachytherapy- 2D dose analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anil Talluri

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the dosimetry to organs at risk (OARs in lithotomy position with a planned time-dose pattern obtained from supine position. Methods: The sample consists of thirty patients with carcinoma of the uterine cervix, Stage II and III. Patients often feel discomfort in supine position (S position when compared to lithotomy position (M position due to relaxation of pelvic floor muscles after the insertion of applicator (tandem and ovoids or before delivery of the treatment. Each patient was imaged with orthogonal X- ray radiographs simultaneously in two positions, i.e. S position and M position. Dwell time and dwell position pattern obtained from the optimized plan in S position was used to generate plan in M position. Following dose reference points (point A, pelvic wall points, bladder points, rectal, anorectum (AR point and rectosigmoid (RS point points were identified for analysis in S and M positions. The dosimetric data for reference points generated by the Brachyvision TPS was analyzed.Results: Pelvic wall points registered lower doses in M position when compared to S position. Mean doses for right pelvic wall point (RPW and left pelvic wall point (LPW were reduced by -10.02 % and -11.5% in M position, respectively. International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU bladder point also registered lower doses in M position with a mean dose of -6.8%. Rectal point showed dose reduction by mean of -6.4%. AR and RS points showed an increased dose in M position by a mean of 16.5% and 10%, respectively. Conclusion: Current dosimetry procedure serves as a model with time-dose pattern planned for S position, but delivered in M position, without dose optimization. Prioritization of comfort and position can be considered in conjunction with optimization of dose

  15. Enhancement of Transistor-to-Transistor Variability Due to Total Dose Effects in 65-nm MOSFETs

    CERN Document Server

    Gerardin, S; Cornale, D; Ding, L; Mattiazzo, S; Paccagnella, A; Faccio, F; Michelis, S

    2015-01-01

    We studied device-to-device variations as a function of total dose in MOSFETs, using specially designed test structures and procedures aimed at maximizing matching between transistors. Degradation in nMOSFETs is less severe than in pMOSFETs and does not show any clear increase in sample-to-sample variability due to the exposure. At doses smaller than 1 Mrad( SiO2) variability in pMOSFETs is also practically unaffected, whereas at very high doses-in excess of tens of Mrad( SiO2)-variability in the on-current is enhanced in a way not correlated to pre-rad variability. The phenomenon is likely due to the impact of random dopant fluctuations on total ionizing dose effects.

  16. Absorbed Dose in the Uterus of a Three Months Pregnant Woman Due to 131I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega-Carrillo, Héctor René; Manzanares-Acuña, Eduardo; Hernández-Dávila, Víctor Martín; Arcos-Pichardo, Areli; Barquero, Raquel; Iñiguez, M. Pilar

    2006-09-01

    The use of 131I is widely used in diagnostic and treatment of patients. If the patient is pregnant the 131I presence in the thyroid it becomes a source of constant exposition to other organs and the fetus. In this study the absorbed dose in the uterus of a 3 months pregnant woman with 131I in her thyroid gland has been calculated. The dose was determined using Monte Carlo methods in which a detailed model of the woman has been developed. The dose was also calculated using a simple procedure that was refined including the photons' attenuation in the woman organs and body. To verify these results an experiment was carried out using a neck phantom with 131I. Comparing the results it was found that the simple calculation tend to overestimate the absorbed dose, by doing the corrections due to body and organs photon attenuation the dose is 0.14 times the Monte Carlo estimation.

  17. Errors in mean and fluctuating velocity due to PIV bias and precision uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, B.; Smith, B.L. [Utah State Univ., Utah (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Particle Image Velocimetry is a powerful fluid velocity measurement tool that has recently become important for CFD validation experiments. Knowledge of experimental uncertainty is important to CFD validation, but the uncertainty of PIV is very complex and not well understood. Previous work has shown that PIV measurements can become 'noisy' in regions of high shear as well as regions of small displacement. This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of these effects on validation data by comparing PIV data to data acquired using hot-wire anemometry, which does not suffer from the same issues. It is confirmed that shear and insufficient particle displacements can result in elevated measurements of turbulence levels. (author)

  18. Mapping Uncertainty Due to Missing Data in the Global Ocean Health Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Melanie; Longo, Catherine; Halpern, Benjamin S

    2016-01-01

    Indicators are increasingly used to measure environmental systems; however, they are often criticized for failing to measure and describe uncertainty. Uncertainty is particularly difficult to evaluate and communicate in the case of composite indicators which aggregate many indicators of ecosystem condition. One of the ongoing goals of the Ocean Health Index (OHI) has been to improve our approach to dealing with missing data, which is a major source of uncertainty. Here we: (1) quantify the potential influence of gapfilled data on index scores from the 2015 global OHI assessment; (2) develop effective methods of tracking, quantifying, and communicating this information; and (3) provide general guidance for implementing gapfilling procedures for existing and emerging indicators, including regional OHI assessments. For the overall OHI global index score, the percent contribution of gapfilled data was relatively small (18.5%); however, it varied substantially among regions and goals. In general, smaller territorial jurisdictions and the food provision and tourism and recreation goals required the most gapfilling. We found the best approach for managing gapfilled data was to mirror the general framework used to organize, calculate, and communicate the Index data and scores. Quantifying gapfilling provides a measure of the reliability of the scores for different regions and components of an indicator. Importantly, this information highlights the importance of the underlying datasets used to calculate composite indicators and can inform and incentivize future data collection.

  19. Mapping Uncertainty Due to Missing Data in the Global Ocean Health Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Catherine; Halpern, Benjamin S.

    2016-01-01

    Indicators are increasingly used to measure environmental systems; however, they are often criticized for failing to measure and describe uncertainty. Uncertainty is particularly difficult to evaluate and communicate in the case of composite indicators which aggregate many indicators of ecosystem condition. One of the ongoing goals of the Ocean Health Index (OHI) has been to improve our approach to dealing with missing data, which is a major source of uncertainty. Here we: (1) quantify the potential influence of gapfilled data on index scores from the 2015 global OHI assessment; (2) develop effective methods of tracking, quantifying, and communicating this information; and (3) provide general guidance for implementing gapfilling procedures for existing and emerging indicators, including regional OHI assessments. For the overall OHI global index score, the percent contribution of gapfilled data was relatively small (18.5%); however, it varied substantially among regions and goals. In general, smaller territorial jurisdictions and the food provision and tourism and recreation goals required the most gapfilling. We found the best approach for managing gapfilled data was to mirror the general framework used to organize, calculate, and communicate the Index data and scores. Quantifying gapfilling provides a measure of the reliability of the scores for different regions and components of an indicator. Importantly, this information highlights the importance of the underlying datasets used to calculate composite indicators and can inform and incentivize future data collection. PMID:27483378

  20. Uncertainty in alpine snow mass balance simulations due to snow model parameterisation and windflow representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musselman, K. N.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Essery, R.; Leroux, N.

    2013-12-01

    Despite advances in alpine snow modelling there remain two fundamental areas of divergent scientific thought in estimating alpine snow mass balances: i) blowing snow sublimation losses, and ii) wind flow representation. Sublimation calculations have poorly understood humidity feedbacks that vary considerably and mathematical representations of alpine windflow vary in complexity - these differences introduce uncertainty. To better estimate and restrain this uncertainty, a variety of physically based, spatially distributed snowmelt models that consider the physics of wind redistribution and sublimation of blowing snow were evaluated for their ability to simulate seasonal snow distribution and melt patterns in a windy alpine environment in the Canadian Rockies. The primary difference in the snow models was their calculation of blowing snow sublimation losses which ranged from large to small estimates. To examine the uncertainty introduced by windflow calculations on the snow model simulations, each model was forced with output from windflow models of varying computational complexity and physical realism from a terrain-based empirical interpolation of station observations to a simple turbulence model to a computational fluid dynamics model that solves for the Navier-Stokes equations. The high-resolution snow simulations were run over a 1 km2 spatial extent centred on a ridgetop meteorological station within the Marmot Creek Research basin, Alberta, Canada. The three windflow simulations all produced reasonable results compared to wind speeds measured on two opposing slopes (bias better than ×0.3 m s-1; RMSE errors were greatest when forced with output from the empirical wind model and smallest using output from either of the two turbulence models. Simulations with higher blowing snow sublimation rates tended to better match measured SWE at multiple scales, confirming that alpine blowing snow sublimation is an important component of the snow mass balance in this region

  1. FURTHER STUDIES ON UNCERTAINTY, CONFOUNDING, AND VALIDATION OF THE DOSES IN THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM: Concluding Progress Report on the Second Phase of Project 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2009-10-23

    This is the concluding Progress Report for Project 1.1 of the U.S./Russia Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER). An overwhelming majority of our work this period has been to complete our primary obligation of providing a new version of the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS), which we call TRDS-2009D; the D denotes deterministic. This system provides estimates of individual doses to members of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC) and post-natal doses to members of the Techa River Offspring Cohort (TROC). The latter doses were calculated with use of the TRDS-2009D. The doses for the members of the ETRC have been made available to the American and Russian epidemiologists in September for their studies in deriving radiogenic risk factors. Doses for members of the TROC are being provided to European and Russian epidemiologists, as partial input for studies of risk in this population. Two of our original goals for the completion of this nine-year phase of Project 1.1 were not completed. These are completion of TRDS-2009MC, which was to be a Monte Carlo version of TRDS-2009 that could be used for more explicit analysis of the impact of uncertainty in doses on uncertainty in radiogenic risk factors. The second incomplete goal was to be the provision of household specific external doses (rather than village average). This task was far along, but had to be delayed due to the lead investigator’s work on consideration of a revised source term.

  2. Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drozdovitch, V. [International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08 (France); DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, EPS 7100, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Maceika, E. [Institute of Physics, Vilnius (Lithuania); Khrouch, V. [State Research Centre - Institute of Biophysics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Zvonova, I. [Institute of Radiation Hygiene, St Petersburg (Russian Federation); Vlasov, O. [Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Bouville, A. [DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, EPS 7094, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Cardis, E. [International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08 (France)

    2007-07-01

    Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and un-shared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) un-shared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7. (authors)

  3. Exploring the uncertainty associated with satellite-based estimates of premature mortality due to exposure to fine particulate matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ford

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The negative impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 exposure on human health are a primary motivator for air quality research. However, estimates of the air pollution health burden vary considerably and strongly depend on the datasets and methodology. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD have been widely used to overcome limited coverage from surface monitoring and to assess the global population exposure to PM2.5 and the associated premature mortality. Here we quantify the uncertainty in determining the burden of disease using this approach, discuss different methods and datasets, and explain sources of discrepancies among values in the literature. For this purpose we primarily use the MODIS satellite observations in concert with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We contrast results in the United States and China for the years 2004–2011. We estimate that in the United States, exposure to PM2.5 accounts for approximately 4 % of total deaths compared to 22 % in China (using satellite-based exposure, which falls within the range of previous estimates. The difference in estimated mortality burden based solely on a global model vs. that derived from satellite is approximately 9 % for the US and 4 % for China on a nationwide basis, although regionally the differences can be much greater. This difference is overshadowed by the uncertainty in the methodology for deriving PM2.5 burden from satellite observations, which we quantify to be on order of 20 % due to uncertainties in the AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 relationship, 10 % due to the satellite observational uncertainty, and 30 % or greater uncertainty associated with the application of concentration response functions to estimated exposure.

  4. Exploring the uncertainty associated with satellite-based estimates of premature mortality due to exposure to fine particulate matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Bonne; Heald, Colette L.

    2016-03-01

    The negative impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on human health are a primary motivator for air quality research. However, estimates of the air pollution health burden vary considerably and strongly depend on the data sets and methodology. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been widely used to overcome limited coverage from surface monitoring and to assess the global population exposure to PM2.5 and the associated premature mortality. Here we quantify the uncertainty in determining the burden of disease using this approach, discuss different methods and data sets, and explain sources of discrepancies among values in the literature. For this purpose we primarily use the MODIS satellite observations in concert with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We contrast results in the United States and China for the years 2004-2011. Using the Burnett et al. (2014) integrated exposure response function, we estimate that in the United States, exposure to PM2.5 accounts for approximately 2 % of total deaths compared to 14 % in China (using satellite-based exposure), which falls within the range of previous estimates. The difference in estimated mortality burden based solely on a global model vs. that derived from satellite is approximately 14 % for the US and 2 % for China on a nationwide basis, although regionally the differences can be much greater. This difference is overshadowed by the uncertainty in the methodology for deriving PM2.5 burden from satellite observations, which we quantify to be on the order of 20 % due to uncertainties in the AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 relationship, 10 % due to the satellite observational uncertainty, and 30 % or greater uncertainty associated with the application of concentration response functions to estimated exposure.

  5. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 and Department of Physics, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg 69117 (Germany); Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H., E-mail: hpaganetti@mgh.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 (United States)

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagation was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio

  6. Status of radiation dose and radioactive contamination due to the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baba, Mamoru [Tohoku Univeristy, Sendai (Japan)

    2016-06-15

    The accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), March 2011, caused serious radioactive contamination over wide area in east Japan. Therefore, it is important to know the effect of the accident and the status of NPP. This paper provides a review on the status of radiation dose and radioactive contamination caused by the accident on the basis of publicized information. Monitoring of radiation dose and exposure dose of residents has been conducted extensively by the governments and various organizations. The effective dose of general residents due to the accident proved to be less than a mSv both for external and internal dose. The equivalent committed dose of thyroid was evaluated to be a few mSv in mean value and less than 50 mSv even for children. Monitoring of radioactivity concentration has been carried out on food ingredients, milk and tap water, and actual meal. These studies indicated the percentage of foods above the regulation standard was over 10% in 2011 but decreasing steadily with time. The internal dose due to foods proved to be tens of μSv and much less than that due to natural {sup 40}K even in the Fukushima area and decreasing steadily, although high level concentration is still observed in wild plants, wild mushrooms, animals and some kind of fishes. According to extensive studies, not only the effect of the accident but also the pathway and countermeasures against radioactive contamination have been revealed, and they are applied very effectively for restoration of environment and reconstruction of the area.

  7. Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk From Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water Beale Air Force Base in California: Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogen, K.T.

    1999-09-29

    Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability after applying a unified probabilistic approach to the distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such an approach was applied to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA{sub g}) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA{sub c}) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA{sub G} based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA, based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were <10{sup -6} and <10{sup -4}, respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were >10{sup -5} and >10{sup -4}, respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely occur due any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The unified approach illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action.

  8. Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk from Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water at Beale Air Force Base in California:Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogen, K T

    2001-05-24

    Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability within a systematic probabilistic framework to integrate the joint effects on risk of distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such a framework was used to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA{sub G}) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA{sub c}) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA{sub G} based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA{sub c} based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were <10{sup -6} and 10{sup -4}, respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were >10{sup -5} and 10{sup -4}, respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely to occur due to any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The systematic probabilistic framework illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action.

  9. False positive and false negative radon measurement results due to uncertainties in seasonal correction factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cliff, K.D.; Miles, J.C.H.; Naismith, S.P. [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom)

    1994-12-31

    Data from the UK national survey of radon in 2300 homes has been re-analysed to determine the uncertainty in seasonal correction factors applied to measurements of less than 1 year. The required correction factor for each six-month result was calculated from the known annual average for the appropriate home. The seasonal correction factors derived for each month were found to be approximately log-normally distributed, with an average geometric standard deviation of 1.36. Following this initial survey, radon measurements have been made in more than 80,000 homes in southwest England to determine whether they are above the UK radon Action Level of 2000 Bq.m{sup -3}. The measurements were carried out over three months in each case using etched track detectors in two locations in each home, and the results were corrected for the average seasonal variation found in the original UK study of radon in homes. Because of the uncertainty in the seasonal correction factors, households with between 130 and 300 Bq.m{sup -3} were advised to have a second three-month measurement in a different season before deciding whether or not to take remedial action. More than 7000 homes were remonitored for this purpose. The results are analysed to show the number of false positive and false negative results that would have been reported if advice had been based solely on the initial measurement. It is shown that the present scheme results in extremely small numbers of false positive and false negative results. (author).

  10. Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

    2000-02-28

    This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases.

  11. Induced Land Use Emissions due to First and Second Generation Biofuels and Uncertainty in Land Use Emission Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzad Taheripour

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Much research has estimated induced land use changes (ILUCs and emissions for first generation biofuels. Relatively little has provided estimates for the second generation biofuels. This paper estimates ILUC emissions for the first and second generation biofuels. Estimated ILUC emissions are uncertain not only because their associated land use changes are uncertain, but also because of uncertainty in the land use emission factors (EFs. This paper also examines uncertainties related to these factors. The results suggest that converting crop residues to biofuel has no significant ILUC emissions, but that is not the case for dedicated energy crops. Use of dedicated energy crops transfers managed natural land and marginal land (cropland-pasture to crop production. Producing biogasoline from miscanthus generates the lowest land requirement among alterative pathways. The largest land requirement is associated with switchgrass. The difference is due largely to the assumed yields of switchgrass and miscanthus. The three major conclusions from uncertainty in emissions analyses are (1 inclusion or exclusion of cropland-pasture makes a huge difference; (2 changes in soil carbon sequestration due to changes in land cover vegetation play an important role; and (3 there is wide divergence among the emission factor sources, especially for dedicated crop conversion to ethanol.

  12. Internal dose assessment due to large area contamination: Main lessons drawn from the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrasi, A. [KFKI Atomic Energy Research Inst., Budapest (Hungary)

    1997-03-01

    The reactor accident at Chernobyl in 1986 beside its serious and tragic consequences provided also an excellent opportunity to check, test and validate all kind of environmental models and calculation tools which were available in the emergency preparedness systems of different countries. Assessment of internal and external doses due to the accident has been carried out for the population all over Europe using different methods. Dose predictions based on environmental model calculation considering various pathways have been compared with those obtained by more direct monitoring methods. One study from Hungary and one from the TAEA is presented shortly. (orig./DG)

  13. Uncertainty of Forest Biomass Estimates in North Temperate Forests Due to Allometry: Implications for Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razi Ahmed

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of above ground biomass density in forests are crucial for refining global climate models and understanding climate change. Although data from field studies can be aggregated to estimate carbon stocks on global scales, the sparsity of such field data, temporal heterogeneity and methodological variations introduce large errors. Remote sensing measurements from spaceborne sensors are a realistic alternative for global carbon accounting; however, the uncertainty of such measurements is not well known and remains an active area of research. This article describes an effort to collect field data at the Harvard and Howland Forest sites, set in the temperate forests of the Northeastern United States in an attempt to establish ground truth forest biomass for calibration of remote sensing measurements. We present an assessment of the quality of ground truth biomass estimates derived from three different sets of diameter-based allometric equations over the Harvard and Howland Forests to establish the contribution of errors in ground truth data to the error in biomass estimates from remote sensing measurements.

  14. Relativistic positioning: errors due to uncertainties in the satellite world lines

    CERN Document Server

    Puchades, Neus

    2014-01-01

    Global navigation satellite systems use appropriate satellite constellations to get the coordinates of an user -close to Earth- in an almost inertial reference system. We have simulated both GPS and GALILEO constellations. Uncertainties in the satellite world lines lead to dominant positioning errors. In this paper, a detailed analysis of these errors is developed inside a great region surrounding Earth. This analysis is performed in the framework of the so-called relativistic positioning systems. Our study is based on the Jacobian, J, of the transformation giving the emission coordinates in terms of the inertial ones. Around points of vanishing J, positioning errors are too large. We show that, for any 4-tuple of satellites, the points with J=0 are located at distances, D, from the Earth centre greater than about 2R/3, where R is the radius of the satellite orbits which are assumed to be circumferences. Our results strongly suggest that, for D-distances greater than 2R/3 and smaller than 100000 km, a rather ...

  15. Experimental study of geo-acoustic inversion uncertainty due to ocean sound-speed fluctuations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siderius, M.; Nielsen, P.L.; Sellschopp, J.; Snellen, M.; Simons, D.G.

    2001-01-01

    Acoustic data measured in the ocean fluctuate due to the complex time-varying properties of the channel. When measured data are used for model-based, geo-acoustic inversion, how do acoustic fluctuations impact estimates for the seabed properties? In May 1999 SACLANT Undersea Research Center and

  16. Experimental study of geo-acoustic inversion uncertainty due to ocean sound-speed fluctuations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siderius, M.; Nielsen, P.L.; Sellschopp, J.; Snellen, M.; Simons, D.G.

    2001-01-01

    Acoustic data measured in the ocean fluctuate due to the complex time-varying properties of the channel. When measured data are used for model-based, geo-acoustic inversion, how do acoustic fluctuations impact estimates for the seabed properties? In May 1999 SACLANT Undersea Research Center and TNO-

  17. Inhalation dose due to radon, thoron, and progenies in dwellings of a hill station.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, R

    2017-02-01

    The general public spends a major portion of their time in an indoor environment and hence receives a considerable amount of radiation. Knowledge about indoor radiation is important in order to arrive at the actual effective dose received by residents. The indoor radon, thoron, and progeny concentrations observed in the present study were found to vary with seasons of a given year. The highest and lowest indoor average radon, thoron, and progeny levels were observed during winter and summer seasons, respectively. The concentrations of indoor radon, thoron, and progenies were found to vary with the type of houses. The highest (222)Rn, (220)Rn, and progeny concentrations were observed in mud houses and the lowest values were recorded in wooden houses. The indoor (222)Rn concentration correlated well with concentration of its grandparent (238)U in underlying soil with a correlation coefficient of 0.87. The correlation between indoor (220)Rn and (232)Th in the underlying soil was found to be 0.64. The estimated effective doses received by the general public in the present study due to indoor radon and thoron were 1.49 ± 0.49 and 1.30 ± 0.53 mSv/year, respectively. The annual effective doses due to radon and thoron progenies were estimated as 0.76 ± 0.27 and 0.47 ± 0.23 mSv/year, respectively. The contributions from (222)Rn, (220)Rn, and corresponding progenies to the annual effective doses received were 37, 32, 19, and 12%, respectively. The general public living in the study area receives an inhalation dose of 4.02 mSv/year due to indoor radon, thoron, and progenies, which were found to be less than the action limit of ICRP 2009.

  18. Perception and annoyance due to wind turbine noise--a dose-response relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Eja; Waye, Kerstin Persson

    2004-12-01

    Installed global wind power increased by 26% during 2003, with U.S and Europe accounting for 90% of the cumulative capacity. Little is known about wind turbines' impact on people living in their vicinity. The aims of this study were to evaluate the prevalence of annoyance due to wind turbine noise and to study dose-response relationships. Interrelationships between noise annoyance and sound characteristics, as well as the influence of subjective variables such as attitude and noise sensitivity, were also assessed. A cross-sectional study was performed in Sweden in 2000. Responses were obtained through questionnaires (n = 351; response rate 68.4%), and doses were calculated as A-weighted sound pressure levels for each respondent. A statistically significant dose-response relationship was found, showing higher proportion of people reporting perception and annoyance than expected from the present dose-response relationships for transportation noise. The unexpected high proportion of annoyance could be due to visual interference, influencing noise annoyance, as well as the presence of intrusive sound characteristics. The respondents' attitude to the visual impact of wind turbines on the landscape scenery was found to influence noise annoyance.

  19. Evaluation of World Population-Weighted Effective Dose due to Cosmic Ray Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Tatsuhiko

    2016-01-01

    After the release of the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee of the Effects of Atomic Radiation in 2000 (UNSCEAR2000), it became commonly accepted that the world population-weighted effective dose due to cosmic-ray exposure is 0.38 mSv, with a range from 0.3 to 2 mSv. However, these values were derived from approximate projections of altitude and geographic dependences of the cosmic-ray dose rates as well as the world population. This study hence re-evaluated the population-weighted annual effective doses and their probability densities for the entire world as well as for 230 individual nations, using a sophisticated cosmic-ray flux calculation model in tandem with detailed grid population and elevation databases. The resulting world population-weighted annual effective dose was determined to be 0.32 mSv, which is smaller than the UNSCEAR’s evaluation by 16%, with a range from 0.23 to 0.70 mSv covering 99% of the world population. These values were noted to vary with the solar modulation condition within a range of approximately 15%. All assessed population-weighted annual effective doses as well as their statistical information for each nation are provided in the supplementary files annexed to this report. These data improve our understanding of cosmic-ray radiation exposures to populations globally. PMID:27650664

  20. Evaluation of World Population-Weighted Effective Dose due to Cosmic Ray Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Tatsuhiko

    2016-09-01

    After the release of the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee of the Effects of Atomic Radiation in 2000 (UNSCEAR2000), it became commonly accepted that the world population-weighted effective dose due to cosmic-ray exposure is 0.38 mSv, with a range from 0.3 to 2 mSv. However, these values were derived from approximate projections of altitude and geographic dependences of the cosmic-ray dose rates as well as the world population. This study hence re-evaluated the population-weighted annual effective doses and their probability densities for the entire world as well as for 230 individual nations, using a sophisticated cosmic-ray flux calculation model in tandem with detailed grid population and elevation databases. The resulting world population-weighted annual effective dose was determined to be 0.32 mSv, which is smaller than the UNSCEAR’s evaluation by 16%, with a range from 0.23 to 0.70 mSv covering 99% of the world population. These values were noted to vary with the solar modulation condition within a range of approximately 15%. All assessed population-weighted annual effective doses as well as their statistical information for each nation are provided in the supplementary files annexed to this report. These data improve our understanding of cosmic-ray radiation exposures to populations globally.

  1. Evaluation of World Population-Weighted Effective Dose due to Cosmic Ray Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Tatsuhiko

    2016-09-21

    After the release of the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee of the Effects of Atomic Radiation in 2000 (UNSCEAR2000), it became commonly accepted that the world population-weighted effective dose due to cosmic-ray exposure is 0.38 mSv, with a range from 0.3 to 2 mSv. However, these values were derived from approximate projections of altitude and geographic dependences of the cosmic-ray dose rates as well as the world population. This study hence re-evaluated the population-weighted annual effective doses and their probability densities for the entire world as well as for 230 individual nations, using a sophisticated cosmic-ray flux calculation model in tandem with detailed grid population and elevation databases. The resulting world population-weighted annual effective dose was determined to be 0.32 mSv, which is smaller than the UNSCEAR's evaluation by 16%, with a range from 0.23 to 0.70 mSv covering 99% of the world population. These values were noted to vary with the solar modulation condition within a range of approximately 15%. All assessed population-weighted annual effective doses as well as their statistical information for each nation are provided in the supplementary files annexed to this report. These data improve our understanding of cosmic-ray radiation exposures to populations globally.

  2. Uncertainty Analysis for Neutron Leakage Spectrum of LLNL Pulsed Sphere Facility due to Fission Cross Sections of ~(235)U

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty of basic nuclear data has become the main source for the uncertainty of integral parameters of nuclear facility. Thus, the study of such uncertainty plays an increasingly important role in nuclear design and simulation, especially in

  3. A Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty due to missing binary outcome data in pairwise meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, N L; Dias, S; Ades, A E; Welton, N J

    2015-05-30

    Missing outcome data are a common threat to the validity of the results from randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which, if not analysed appropriately, can lead to misleading treatment effect estimates. Studies with missing outcome data also threaten the validity of any meta-analysis that includes them. A conceptually simple Bayesian framework is proposed, to account for uncertainty due to missing binary outcome data in meta-analysis. A pattern-mixture model is fitted, which allows the incorporation of prior information on a parameter describing the missingness mechanism. We describe several alternative parameterisations, with the simplest being a prior on the probability of an event in the missing individuals. We describe a series of structural assumptions that can be made concerning the missingness parameters. We use some artificial data scenarios to demonstrate the ability of the model to produce a bias-adjusted estimate of treatment effect that accounts for uncertainty. A meta-analysis of haloperidol versus placebo for schizophrenia is used to illustrate the model. We end with a discussion of elicitation of priors, issues with poor reporting and potential extensions of the framework. Our framework allows one to make the best use of evidence produced from RCTs with missing outcome data in a meta-analysis, accounts for any uncertainty induced by missing data and fits easily into a wider evidence synthesis framework for medical decision making.

  4. In vivo measurement of Pu dissolution parameters of MOX aerosols and related uncertainties in the values of the dose per unit intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramounet-Le Gall, B; Rateau, G; Abram, M C; Grillon, G; Ansoborlo, E; Bérard, P; Delforge, J; Fritsch, P

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare dissolution parameter values for Pu from industrial MOX with different Pu contents. For this purpose, preliminary results obtained after inhalation exposure of rats to MOX containing 2.5% Pu are reported and compared to those obtained previously with MOX containing 5% Pu. Dissolution parameter values appear to increase when the amount of Pu decreases. Rapid fractions, f(r), of 4 x 10(-3) (s.d. = 2 x 10(-3)) and 1 x 10(-3) (s.d. = 6 x 10(-4)) and slow dissolution rates, s(s) of 2 x 10(-4) d(-1) (standard deviation, sigma = 5 x 10(-5)) and 5 x 10(-5) d(-1) (sigma = 1 x 10(-5)) were derived for MOX containing 2.5 and 5% of Pu, respectively. Simulations were performed to assess uncertainties on dose due to experimental errors. The relative standard deviations of the dose per unit intake (DPUI) due to f(r) (4-8%), are far less than those due to s(s) (about 20%), which is the main parameter altering the dose. Although quite different dissolution parameter values were derived, similar DPUIs were obtained for MOX aerosols containing 2.5 and 5% Pu which appear close to that for default Type S values.

  5. Quantifying Acoustic Uncertainty Due to Marine Mammals and Fish Near the Shelfbreak Front off Cape Hatteras

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    publishing our results. 2 APPROACH The basic tools/ methodology employed in our “year two” major cruise consisted of a combination of: 1...mapping fish populations and schools, which is important in that the “biological field” is often an unknown for both experimental studies and Navy...will allow them to be discriminated against as false targets ion sonar systems. Also, in the case of larger shoals, the effective attenuation due to the

  6. Monte Carlo simulations of patient dose perturbations in rotational-type radiotherapy due to a transverse magnetic field: A tomotherapy investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Y. M.; Geurts, M.; Smilowitz, J. B.; Bednarz, B. P., E-mail: bbednarz2@wisc.edu [Department of Medical Physics, Wisconsin Institutes for Medical Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53703 (United States); Sterpin, E. [Molecular Imaging, Radiotherapy and Oncology, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium 1348 (Belgium)

    2015-02-15

    Purpose: Several groups are exploring the integration of magnetic resonance (MR) image guidance with radiotherapy to reduce tumor position uncertainty during photon radiotherapy. The therapeutic gain from reducing tumor position uncertainty using intrafraction MR imaging during radiotherapy could be partially offset if the negative effects of magnetic field-induced dose perturbations are not appreciated or accounted for. The authors hypothesize that a more rotationally symmetric modality such as helical tomotherapy will permit a systematic mediation of these dose perturbations. This investigation offers a unique look at the dose perturbations due to homogeneous transverse magnetic field during the delivery of Tomotherapy{sup ®} Treatment System plans under varying degrees of rotational beamlet symmetry. Methods: The authors accurately reproduced treatment plan beamlet and patient configurations using the Monte Carlo code GEANT4. This code has a thoroughly benchmarked electromagnetic particle transport physics package well-suited for the radiotherapy energy regime. The three approved clinical treatment plans for this study were for a prostate, head and neck, and lung treatment. The dose heterogeneity index metric was used to quantify the effect of the dose perturbations to the target volumes. Results: The authors demonstrate the ability to reproduce the clinical dose–volume histograms (DVH) to within 4% dose agreement at each DVH point for the target volumes and most planning structures, and therefore, are able to confidently examine the effects of transverse magnetic fields on the plans. The authors investigated field strengths of 0.35, 0.7, 1, 1.5, and 3 T. Changes to the dose heterogeneity index of 0.1% were seen in the prostate and head and neck case, reflecting negligible dose perturbations to the target volumes, a change from 5.5% to 20.1% was observed with the lung case. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the effect of external magnetic fields can

  7. Increased dose near the skin due to electromagnetic surface beacon transponder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Kang-Hyun; Manger, Ryan; Halpern, Howard J; Aydogan, Bulent

    2015-05-08

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the increased dose near the skin from an electromagnetic surface beacon transponder, which is used for localization and tracking organ motion. The bolus effect due to the copper coil surface beacon was evaluated with radiographic film measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Various beam incidence angles were evaluated for both 6 MV and 18 MV experimentally. We performed simulations using a general-purpose Monte Carlo code MCNPX (Monte Carlo N-Particle) to supplement the experimental data. We modeled the surface beacon geometry using the actual mass of the glass vial and copper coil placed in its L-shaped polyethylene terephthalate tubing casing. Film dosimetry measured factors of 2.2 and 3.0 enhancement in the surface dose for normally incident 6 MV and 18 MV beams, respectively. Although surface dose further increased with incidence angle, the relative contribution from the bolus effect was reduced at the oblique incidence. The enhancement factors were 1.5 and 1.8 for 6 MV and 18 MV, respectively, at an incidence angle of 60°. Monte Carlo simulation confirmed the experimental results and indicated that the epidermal skin dose can reach approximately 50% of the dose at dmax at normal incidence. The overall effect could be acceptable considering the skin dose enhancement is confined to a small area (~ 1 cm2), and can be further reduced by using an opposite beam technique. Further clinical studies are justified in order to study the dosimetric benefit versus possible cosmetic effects of the surface beacon. One such clinical situation would be intact breast radiation therapy, especially large-breasted women.

  8. A Strategy to Estimate the Systematic Uncertainty of Eddy Covariance Fluxes due to the Post-field Raw Data Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatini, Simone; Fratini, Gerardo; Fidaleo, Marcello; Papale, Dario

    2017-04-01

    Among several sources of uncertainty characterising the fluxes of atmospheric constituents to and from a given ecosystem calculated using the eddy covariance (EC) methodology, the systematic error due to the corrections applied in the post-field raw data processing is still relatively unknown. We performed an extensive analysis aiming at quantifying this portion of the uncertainty for the CO2 exchange, and at defining a strategy of processing to be generically applied as to understand this uncertainty. We selected 11 years of raw EC data from 9 stations all over the Europe, corresponding to 4 different setups. Then we chose 2 or 3 possible valid options for each of the 8 most relevant corrections to be applied to the raw data, and produced as many outputs (1-year-long calculated hourly and half-hourly fluxes) as the combinations of all the different options (full-factorial design). Statistical analysis was used to quantify and characterise the uncertainty (n-way ANOVA) both on the (half-)hourly and the yearly cumulative fluxes. Factorial design of Experiment (DOE) was used to select a relatively small sub-group of combinations of processing options (fractional factorial design) to be applied to a given dataset in order to quantify the processing uncertainty, with a limited loss of information as compared to the full factorial. Our results show that: (i) the variability as expressed by the inter-quartile range (IQR) of the cumulate CO2 flux is between 50 and 400 gC m-2 year-1. (ii) The importance of the single corrections (factors) in terms of variance explained is not constant among datasets, but a general trend is found such that the coordinate rotation (CR) and the trend removal (TR) have often a high weight on the overall uncertainty (i.e. between 10% and 50%), while the importance of the time-lag compensation (TL) is highly variable. (iii) 2x2 interactions between factors have some importance, mostly between the most relevant ones. (iv) The percentage error of

  9. Changes in Handset Performance Measures due to Spherical Radiation Pattern Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Ødum; Pedersen, Gert Frølund

    An important characteristic of a mobile handset is its ability to receive and transmit power. One way to characterize the performance of a handset in this respect is to use measurements of the spherical radiation pattern from which the total radiated power (TRP), total isotropic sensitivity (TIS......), and mean effective gain (MEG) can be computed. Often this kind of measurements are made with a phantom head next to the handsets in order to simulate the influence of a real user. The measured radiation patterns are only expected to be repeatable if the same setup is used, i.e., the same phantom...... and the same mounting of the handset on the phantom. In this work the influence of mounting errors on the TRP, TIS, and MEG is investigated. Knowledge about the error due to incorrect mounting is necessary in determining requirements for both the mounting accuracy as well as for other parts of the measurement...

  10. Benchmark measurements and simulations of dose perturbations due to metallic spheres in proton beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhauser, Wayne D.; Rechner, Laura; Mirkovic, Dragan; Yepes, Pablo; Koch, Nicholas C.; Titt, Uwe; Fontenot, Jonas D.; Zhang, Rui

    2014-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations are increasingly used for dose calculations in proton therapy due to its inherent accuracy. However, dosimetric deviations have been found using Monte Carlo code when high density materials are present in the proton beam line. The purpose of this work was to quantify the magnitude of dose perturbation caused by metal objects. We did this by comparing measurements and Monte Carlo predictions of dose perturbations caused by the presence of small metal spheres in several clinical proton therapy beams as functions of proton beam range, spread-out Bragg peak width and drift space. Monte Carlo codes MCNPX, GEANT4 and Fast Dose Calculator (FDC) were used. Generally good agreement was found between measurements and Monte Carlo predictions, with the average difference within 5% and maximum difference within 17%. The modification of multiple Coulomb scattering model in MCNPX code yielded improvement in accuracy and provided the best overall agreement with measurements. Our results confirmed that Monte Carlo codes are well suited for predicting multiple Coulomb scattering in proton therapy beams when short drift spaces are involved. PMID:25147474

  11. Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herschtal, Alan, E-mail: Alan.Herschtal@petermac.org [Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Faculty of Health, Arts and Design, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Te Marvelde, Luc [Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [School of Mathematical Sciences, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Foroudi, Farshad [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia); Eade, Thomas [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Radiation Oncology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney (Australia); Northern Clinical School, University of Sydney (Australia); Pham, Daniel [Department of Radiation Therapy, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Caine, Hannah [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Radiation Oncology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney (Australia); Kron, Tomas [The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia); Department of Physical Sciences, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia)

    2015-06-01

    Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes.

  12. Calculation of fluence and absorbed dose in head tissues due to different photon energies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azorín, C; Vega-Carrillo, H R; Rivera, T; Azorín, J

    2014-01-01

    Calculations of fluence and absorbed dose in head tissues due to different photon energies were carried out using the MCNPX code, to simulate two models of a patient's head: one spherical and another more realistic ellipsoidal. Both head models had concentric shells to describe the scalp skin, the cranium and the brain. The tumor was located at the center of the head and it was a 1 cm-radius sphere. The MCNPX code was run for different energies. Results showed that the fluence decreases as the photons pass through the different head tissues. It can be observed that, although the fluence into the tumor is different for both head models, absorbed dose is the same.

  13. [Convulsion due to application of low dose meperidine: a case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkaya, Halit; Akcan, Abdullah Barış; Aydemir, Gökhan; Akbaş, Mert

    2012-01-01

    Meperidine is an opiod analgesic used in a variety of clinical situations. The active metabolite, normeperidine, is a central nervous system excitatory agent and has the ability to cause irritability, hyperreflexia, tremor, myoclonus and seizures. Previously identified risk factors for the development of meperidine-related seizures include renal failure, high meperidine dosages, and co-adminestration of hepatic enzyme inducing medications or phenothiazines which decreases seizure treshold. Patients with normal renal function rarely manifest seizure activity when given meperidine. Here we report a 10 year old boy with a femur fraction who had normal renal function. We used low dose meperidine due to post operative pains.

  14. Paraquat poisoning: an experimental model of dose-dependent acute lung injury due to surfactant dysfunction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.F.R. Silva

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Since the most characteristic feature of paraquat poisoning is lung damage, a prospective controlled study was performed on excised rat lungs in order to estimate the intensity of lesion after different doses. Twenty-five male, 2-3-month-old non-SPF Wistar rats, divided into 5 groups, received paraquat dichloride in a single intraperitoneal injection (0, 1, 5, 25, or 50 mg/kg body weight 24 h before the experiment. Static pressure-volume (PV curves were performed in air- and saline-filled lungs; an estimator of surface tension and tissue works was computed by integrating the area of both curves and reported as work/ml of volume displacement. Paraquat induced a dose-dependent increase of inspiratory surface tension work that reached a significant two-fold order of magnitude for 25 and 50 mg/kg body weight (P<0.05, ANOVA, sparing lung tissue. This kind of lesion was probably due to functional abnormalities of the surfactant system, as was shown by the increase in the hysteresis of the paraquat groups at the highest doses. Hence, paraquat poisoning provides a suitable model of acute lung injury with alveolar instability that can be easily used in experimental protocols of mechanical ventilation

  15. Peripheral Dose Heterogeneity Due to the Thread Effect in Total Marrow Irradiation With Helical Tomotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takahashi, Yutaka [Masonic Cancer Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Verneris, Michael R. [Division of Hematology, Oncology, and Bone Marrow Transplantation, Department of Pediatrics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Dusenbery, Kathryn E. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Wilke, Christopher T. [Department of Radiotherapy, Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Brussels (Belgium); Storme, Guy; Weisdorf, Daniel J. [Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Hui, Susanta K., E-mail: huixx019@umn.edu [Masonic Cancer Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Department of Therapeutic Radiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: To report potential dose heterogeneity leading to underdosing at different skeletal sites in total marrow irradiation (TMI) with helical tomotherapy due to the thread effect and provide possible solutions to reduce this effect. Methods and Materials: Nine cases were divided into 2 groups based on patient size, defined as maximum left-to-right arm distance (mLRD): small mLRD (≤47 cm) and large mLRD (>47 cm). TMI treatment planning was conducted by varying the pitch and modulation factor while a jaw size (5 cm) was kept fixed. Ripple amplitude, defined as the peak-to-trough dose relative to the average dose due to the thread effect, and the dose–volume histogram (DVH) parameters for 9 cases with various mLRD was analyzed in different skeletal regions at off-axis (eg, bones of the arm or femur), at the central axis (eg, vertebrae), and planning target volume (PTV), defined as the entire skeleton plus 1-cm margin. Results: Average ripple amplitude for a pitch of 0.430, known as one of the magic pitches that reduce thread effect, was 9.2% at 20 cm off-axis. No significant differences in DVH parameters of PTV, vertebrae, or femur were observed between small and large mLRD groups for a pitch of ≤0.287. Conversely, in the bones of the arm, average differences in the volume receiving 95% and 107% dose (V95 and V107, respectively) between large and small mLRD groups were 4.2% (P=.016) and 16% (P=.016), respectively. Strong correlations were found between mLRD and ripple amplitude (rs=.965), mLRD and V95 (rs=−.742), and mLRD and V107 (rs=.870) of bones of the arm. Conclusions: Thread effect significantly influences DVH parameters in the bones of the arm for large mLRD patients. By implementing a favorable pitch value and adjusting arm position, peripheral dose heterogeneity could be reduced.

  16. Evaluation of Activity Concentration Values and Doses due to the Transport of Low Level Radioactive Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rawl, Richard R [ORNL; Scofield, Patricia A [ORNL; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL

    2010-04-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated an international Coordinated Research Project (CRP) to evaluate the safety of transport of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM). This report presents the United States contribution to that IAEA research program. The focus of this report is on the analysis of the potential doses resulting from the transport of low level radioactive material. Specific areas of research included: (1) an examination of the technical approach used in the derivation of exempt activity concentration values and a comparison of the doses associated with the transport of materials included or not included in the provisions of Paragraph 107(e) of the IAEA Safety Standards, Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material, Safety Requirements No. TS-R-1; (2) determination of the doses resulting from different treatment of progeny for exempt values versus the A{sub 1}/A{sub 2} values; and (3) evaluation of the dose justifications for the provisions applicable to exempt materials and low specific activity materials (LSA-I). It was found that the 'previous or intended use' (PIU) provision in Paragraph 107(e) is not risk informed since doses to the most highly exposed persons (e.g., truck drivers) are comparable regardless of intended use of the transported material. The PIU clause can also have important economic implications for co-mined ores and products that are not intended for the fuel cycle but that have uranium extracted as part of their industrial processing. In examination of the footnotes in Table 2 of TS-R-1, which identifies the progeny included in the exempt or A1/A2 values, there is no explanation of how the progeny were selected. It is recommended that the progeny for both the exemption and A{sub 1}/A{sub 2} values should be similar regardless of application, and that the same physical information should be used in deriving the limits. Based on the evaluation of doses due to the transport of low

  17. A Probabilistic Approach to Uncertainty Analysis in NTPR Radiation Dose Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    Headquarters (HQ) Detachment, Enewetak Atoll .............................................. 115 5.1.1 Case Description and Cohort Participation Scenario...Administrative and Operations Detachments, Enewetak Atoll .......................... 122 5.2.1 Case Description and Cohort Participation Scenario...Figure 33. Comparison of the Dose Distribution from Probabilistic Analysis with Unbiased Film Badge Readings for the 7126th AU at Enewetak Atoll

  18. Assessment of dose due to exposure to indoor radon and thoron progeny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasad Ganesh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The components of the effective dose through inhalation from radon and its progeny are important for human health since they contribute to more than 50% of the total radiation dose from natural sources. As a consequence, radon has been identified as the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Radon and its short lived decay products (218Po, 214Pb, 214Bi, 214Po present in dwellings are a radiation hazard, particularly if such sources are concentrated in the enclosed areas like poorly ventilated houses and underground mines. The indoor radon, thoron, and progeny concentrations were measured in a small hilly town of Budhakedar and the surrounding area of Tehri Garhwal, India, by using LR-115 Type II plastic track detector in a twin cup radon dosimeter. The concentrations of radon progeny were measured as the highest in winter and the lowest in summer while the thoron progeny concentration was found maximum in rainy season and minimum in autumn. The annual exposure to the potential alpha energy of radon and thoron were found to vary from 0.04 WLM to 0.69 WLM with an average value of 0.29 WLM, and 0.03 WLM to 0.37 WLM with an aver- age value of 0.16 WLM, respectively. The annual effective dose due to the exposure to indoor radon and progeny in Budhakedar homes was found to vary from 0.16 mSv to 2.72 mSv with an average value of 1.14 mSv and the effective dose due to the exposure to thoron and progeny was found to vary from 0.18 mSv to 2.49 mSv with an average value of 1.05 mSv. The results of systematic study have been obtained by considering the room as a space in which the radon and thoron levels are directly related to the dynamic and static parameters.

  19. Determination of uncertainties in the calculation of dose rates at transport and storage casks; Unsicherheiten bei der Berechnung von Dosisleistungen an Transport- und Lagerbehaeltern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schloemer, Luc Laurent Alexander

    2014-12-17

    The compliance with the dose rate limits for transport and storage casks (TLB) for spent nuclear fuel from pressurised water reactors can be proved by calculation. This includes the determination of the radioactive sources and the shielding-capability of the cask. In this thesis the entire computational chain, which extends from the determination of the source terms to the final Monte-Carlo-transport-calculation is analysed and the arising uncertainties are quantified not only by benchmarks but also by variational calculi. The background of these analyses is that the comparison with measured dose rates at different TLBs shows an overestimation by the values calculated. Regarding the studies performed, the overestimation can be mainly explained by the detector characteristics for the measurement of the neutron dose rate and additionally in case of the gamma dose rates by the energy group structure, which the calculation is based on. It turns out that the consideration of the uncertainties occurring along the computational chain can lead to even greater overestimation. Concerning the dose rate calculation at cask loadings with spent uranium fuel assemblies an uncertainty of (({sup +21}{sub -28}) ±2) % (rel.) for the total gamma dose rate and of ({sup +28±23}{sub -55±4}) % (rel.) for the total neutron dose rate are estimated. For mixed-loadings with spent uranium and MOX fuel assemblies an uncertainty of ({sup +24±3}{sub -27±2}) % (rel.) for the total gamma dose rate and of ({sup +28±23}{sub -55±4}) % (rel.) for the total neutron dose rate are quantified. The results show that the computational chain has not to be modified, because the calculations performed lead to conservative dose rate predictions, even if high uncertainties at neutron dose rate measurements arise. Thus at first the uncertainties of the neutron dose rate measurement have to be decreased to enable a reduction of the overestimation of the calculated dose rate afterwards. In the present thesis

  20. Uncertainties in surface mass and energy flux estimates due to different eddy covariance sensors and technical set-up

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arriga, Nicola; Fratini, Gerardo; Forgione, Antonio; Tomassucci, Michele; Papale, Dario

    2010-05-01

    Eddy covariance is a well established and widely used methodology for the measurement of turbulent fluxes of mass and energy in the atmospheric boundary layer, in particular to estimate CO2/H2O and heat exchange above ecologically relevant surfaces (Aubinet 2000, Baldocchi 2003). Despite its long term application and theoretical studies, many issues are still open about the effect of different experimental set-up on final flux estimates. Open issues are the evaluation of the performances of different kind of sensors (e.g. open path vs closed path infra-red gas analysers, vertical vs horizontal mounting ultrasonic anemometers), the quantification of the impact of corresponding physical corrections to be applied to get robust flux estimates taking in account all processes concurring to the measurement (e.g. the so-called WPL term, signal attenuation due to air sampling system for closed path analyser, relative position of analyser and anemometer) and the differences between several data transmission protocols used (analogue, digital RS-232, SDM). A field experiment was designed to study these issues using several instruments among those most used within the Fluxnet community and to compare their performances under conditions supposed to be critical: rainy and cold weather conditions for open-path analysers (Burba 2008), water transport and absorption at high air relative humidity conditions for closed-path systems (Ibrom, 2007), frequency sampling limits and recorded data robustness due to different transmission protocols (RS232, SDM, USB, Ethernet) and finally the effect of the displacement between anemometer and analyser using at least two identical analysers placed at different horizontal and vertical distances from the anemometer. Aim of this experiment is to quantify the effect of several technical solutions on the final estimates of fluxes measured at a point in the space and if they represent a significant source of uncertainty for mass and energy cycle

  1. Dose effect for South Serbians due to {sup 238}U in natural drinking water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, S.K.; Matsumoto, M.; Shiraishi, K.; Fujimoto, K. [Department of Radiation Dosimetry, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, 4-9-1 Anagawa, Inage-ku, Chiba 263-8555 (Japan); Cuknic, O.; Zunic, Z.S. [Institute of Nuclear Sciences, VINCA, PO Box 522, 11001 Belgrade (Serbia)

    2007-07-01

    The use of depleted uranium ammunition in South Serbia during the 1999 Kosovo conflict raised a great deal of public concern in the Balkans. Radioactivity levels of {sup 238}U in 20 wells and lake water samples were checked from the viewpoint of internal radiation exposure for South Serbian subjects. We have measured {sup 238}U concentration using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, whereas thermal ionisation mass spectrometry has been used for the measurement of isotope ratios, e.g. {sup 234}U/{sup 238}U and {sup 235}U/{sup 238}U. The concentration of uranium in water samples varies in the range 1.37-63.18 mBq/L. {sup 234}U belongs to the {sup 238}U natural radioactive decay series, and at secular equilibrium, the abundance ratio, {sup 234}U/{sup 238}U, corresponds to the ratio of their half-lives. The {sup 234}U/{sup 238}U activity ratio varies in the range 0.88-2.2 and {sup 235}U/{sup 238}U isotope ratio varies from 0.00698 to 0.00745. These findings indicate that uranium in water was a mixture of natural and anthropogenic origin. The annual effective dose due to {sup 238}U was estimated to be in the range 9.2 x 10{sup -5} - 2.1 x 10{sup -3} mSv. (authors)

  2. Dose-related effects of dexamethasone on liver damage due to bile duct ligation in rats

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Halil Eken; Hayrettin Ozturk; Hulya Ozturk; Huseyin Buyukbayram

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the effects of dexamethasone on liver damage in rats with bile duct ligation. METHODS: A total of 40 male Sprague-Dawley rats,weighing 165-205 g, were used in this study. Group 1 (sham-control, n = 10) rats underwent laparotomy alone and the bile duct was just dissected from the surrounding tissue. Group 2 rats (untreated, n = 10)were subjected to bile duct ligation (BDL) and no drug was applied. Group 3 rats (low-dose dexa, n = 10)received a daily dose of dexamethasone by orogastric tube for 14 d after BDL. Group 4 rats (high-dose dexa,n = 10) received a daily dose of dexamethasone by orogastric tube for 14 d after BDL. At the end of the twoweek period, biochemical and histological evaluations were processed.RESULTS: The mean serum bilirubin and liver enzyme levels significantly decreased, and superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione peroxidase (GSHPx) values were significantly increased in low-dose dexa and high-dose dexa groups when compared to the untreated group. The histopathological score was significantly less in the low-dose and high-dose dexa groups compared to the untreated rats. In the low-dose dexa group, moderate liver damage was seen, while mild liver damage was observed in the high-dose dexa group.CONCLUSION: Corticosteroids reduced liver damage produced by bile duct obstruction. However, the histopathological score was not significantly lower in the high-dose corticosteroid group as compared to the lowdose group. Thus, low-dose corticosteroid provides a significant reduction of liver damage without increased side effects, while high dose is associated not with lower fibrosis but with increased side effects.

  3. Measurements with a Ge detector and Monte Carlo computations of dose rate yields due to cosmic muons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clouvas, A; Xanthos, S; Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Silva, J

    2003-02-01

    The present work shows how portable Ge detectors can be useful for measurements of the dose rate due to ionizing cosmic radiation. The methodology proposed converts the cosmic radiation induced background in a Ge crystal (energy range above 3 MeV) to the absorbed dose rate due to muons, which are responsible for 75% of the cosmic radiation dose rate at sea level. The key point is to observe in the high energy range (above 20 MeV) the broad muon peak resulting from the most probable energy loss of muons in the Ge detector. An energy shift of the muon peak was observed, as expected, for increasing dimensions of three Ge crystals (10%, 20%, and 70% efficiency). Taking into account the dimensions of the three detectors the location of the three muon peaks was reproduced by Monte Carlo computations using the GEANT code. The absorbed dose rate due to muons has been measured in 50 indoor and outdoor locations at Thessaloniki, the second largest town of Greece, with a portable Ge detector and converted to the absorbed dose rate due to muons in an ICRU sphere representing the human body by using a factor derived from Monte Carlo computations. The outdoor and indoor mean muon dose rate was 25 nGy h(-1) and 17.8 nGy h(-1), respectively. The shielding factor for the 40 indoor measurements ranges from 0.5 to 0.9 with a most probable value between 0.7-0.8.

  4. Population dose commitments due to radioactive releases from nuclear power plant sites in 1984

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, D.A.

    1988-01-01

    Population radiation dose commitments have been estimated from reported radionuclide releases from commercial power reactors operating during 1984. Fifty-year dose commitments from a one-year exposure were calculated from both liquid and atmospheric releases for four population groups (infant, child, teen-ager and adult) residing between 2 and 80 km from each of 56 sites. This report tabulates the results of these calculations, showing the dose commitments for both liquid and airborne pathways for each age group and organ. Also included for each of the sites is a histogram showing the fraction of the total population within 2 to 80 km around each site receiving various average dose commitments from the airborne pathways. The total dose commitments (from both liquid and airborne pathways) for each site ranged from a high of 110 person-rem to a low of 0.002 person-rem for the sites with plants operating throughout the year with an arithmetic mean of 5 person-rem. The total population dose for all sites was estimated at 280 person-rem for the 100 million people considered at risk. The site average individual dose commitment from all pathways ranged from a low of 6 x 10/sup -6/ mrem to a high of 0.04 mrem. No attempt was made in this study to determine the maximum dose commitment received by any one individual from the radionuclides released at any of the sites.

  5. Population dose commitments due to radioactive releases from nuclear power plant sites in 1982. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, D.A.; Peloquin, R.A.

    1986-06-01

    Population radiation dose commitments have been estimated from reported radionuclide releases from commercial power reactors operating during 1982. Fifty-year dose commitments from a one-year exposure were calculated from both liquid and atmospheric releases for four population groups (infant, child, teen-ager and adult) residing between 2 and 80 km from each of 51 sites. This report tabulates the results of these calculations, showing the dose commitments for both liquid and airborne pathways for each age group and organ. Also included for each site is a histogram showing the fraction of the total population within 2 to 80 km around each site receiving various average dose commitments from the airborne pathways. The total dose commitments from both liquid and airborne pathways ranged from a high of 30 person-rem to a low of 0.007 person-rem for the sites with plants operating throughout the year with an arithmetic mean of 3 person-rem. The total population dose for all sites was estimated at 130 person-rem for the 100 million people considered at risk. The average individual dose commitment from all pathways on a site basis ranged from a low of 6 x 10/sup -7/ mrem to a high of 0.06 mrem. No attempt was made in this study to determine the maximum dose commitment received by any one individual from the radionuclides released at any of the sites.

  6. Population dose commitments due to radioactive releases from nuclear power plant sites in 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, D.A. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA))

    1990-08-01

    Population radiation dose commitments have been estimated from reported radionuclide releases from commercial power reactors operating during 1987. Fifty-year dose commitments for a one-year exposure from both liquid and atmospheric releases were calculated for four population groups (infant, child, teen-ager and adult) residing between 2 and 80 km from each of 70 reactor sites. This report tabulates the results of these calculations, showing the dose commitments for both water and airborne pathways for each age group and organ. Also included for reach of the sites is a histogram showing the fraction of the total population within 2 to 80 km around each site receiving various average dose commitments from the airborne pathways. The site average individual dose commitment from all pathways ranged from a low of 2 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} mrem to a high of 0.009 mrem. No attempt was made in this study to determine the maximum dose commitment received by any one individual from the radionuclides released at any of the sites. However, licensee calculation of doses to the maximally exposed individual at some sites indicated values of up to approximately 100 times average individual doses (on the order of a few millirem per year). 2 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs.

  7. [Risk and prevention of gastrointestinal complications due to low-dose aspirin and other antiplatelet agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretagne, Jean-François

    2008-09-15

    Upper and lower gastrointestinal (GI) haemorrhages are the main complications associated with low-dose aspirin or anti-thrombotic drugs. In France, low-dose aspirin or anti-thrombotic agents use has been found in 30% of upper GI and 40% of lower GI bleeding episodes. Main causes of GI bleeding with low-dose aspirin are gastroduodenal peptic ulcer and colonic diverticulosis. Recent cohort studies have shown that the relative risk of GI bleeding with low-dose aspirin was comprised between 2 and 4 and the absolute risk comprised between 1 per 100 and 1 per 1000 aspirin users per year. Main risk factors for upper GI bleeding with low-dose aspirin are concomitant antiplatelet agents, anticoagulants, non steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids use, and recent history of complicated or non-complicated gastroduodenal ulcer. Helicobacter pylori infection increases the risk for upper GI bleeding with low-dose aspirin, but infection should be searched and treated only in patients with peptic ulcer. Despite eradication of H. pylori in the latter patients, gastroprotection with PPI is strongly recommended. In patients presenting with peptic ulcer bleeding with low-dose aspirin, aspirin should be continued in association with PPI rather than replaced with clopidogrel. Discontinuation of low-dose aspirin which exposes to increased cardiovascular complications and mortality should be avoided, even in cases of peptic ulcer bleeding.

  8. Calculation of indoor effective dose factors in ORNL phantoms series due to natural radioactivity in building materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstic, D; Nikezic, D

    2009-10-01

    In this paper the effective dose in the age-dependent ORNL phantoms series, due to naturally occurring radionuclides in building materials, was calculated. The absorbed doses for various organs or human tissues have been calculated. The MCNP-4B computer code was used for this purpose. The effective dose was calculated according to ICRP Publication 74. The obtained values of dose conversion factors for a standard room are: 1.033, 0.752 and 0.0538 nSv h-1 per Bq kg-1 for elements of the U and Th decay series and for the K isotope, respectively. The values of effective dose agreed generally with those found in the literature, although the values estimated here for elements of the U series were higher in some cases.

  9. PECULIARITIES OF CURRENT DOSE ASSESSMENT FOR CHILDREN LIVING IN THE TERRITORIES RADIOACTIVELY CONTAMINATED DUE TO THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Gromov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The article outlines peculiarities of current dose assessment for the children living in the territories radioactively contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident. The results of annual exposure dose assessment for the children of various age groups and adult population of three subject territories of the Russian Federation referred to the zones of radioactive contamination are presented. A comparison of obtained estimations is done.

  10. Uncertainty in the Future Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone over West Africa due to Variability in Anthropogenic Emissions Estimates between 2025 and 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Particle and trace gas emissions due to anthropogenic activity are expected to increase significantly in West Africa over the next few decades due to rising population and more energy intensive lifestyles. Here we perform 3D global chemistry-transport model calculations for 2025 and 2050 using both a “business-as-usual” (A1B and “clean economy” (B1 future anthropogenic emission scenario to focus on the changes in the distribution and uncertainties associated with tropospheric O3 due to the various projected emission scenarios. When compared to the present-day troposphere we find that there are significant increases in tropospheric O3 for the A1B emission scenario, with the largest increases being located in the lower troposphere near the source regions and into the Sahel around 15–20°N. In part this increase is due to more efficient NOx re-cycling related to increases in the background methane concentrations. Examining the uncertainty across different emission inventories reveals that there is an associated uncertainty of up to ~20% in the predicted increases at 2025 and 2050. For the upper troposphere, where increases in O3 have a more pronounced impact on radiative forcing, the uncertainty is influenced by transport of O3 rich air from Asia on the Tropical Easterly Jet.

  11. Dose commitments due to radioactive releases from nuclear power plant sites in 1992. Volume 14

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaberg, R.L.; Baker, D.A.

    1996-03-01

    Population and individual radiation dose commitments have been estimated from reported radionuclide releases from commercial power reactors operating during 1992. Fifty-year dose commitments for a 1-year exposure from both liquid and atmospheric releases were calculated for four population groups (infant, child, teenager, and adult) residing between 2 and 80 km from each of 72 reactor sites. This report tabulates the results of these calculations, showing the dose commitments for both water and airborne pathways for each age group and organ. Also included for each of the sites is an estimate of individual doses, which are compared with 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix I, design objectives. The total collective dose commitments (from both liquid and airborne pathways) for each site ranged from a high of 3.7 person-rem to a low of 0.0015 person-rem for the sites with plants in operation and producing power during the year. The arithmetic mean was 0.66 person-rem. The total population dose for all sites was estimated at 47 person-rem for the 130-million people considered at risk. The individual dose commitments estimated for all sites were below the 10 CFR 50, Appendix I, design objectives.

  12. Dose commitments due to radioactive releases from nuclear power plant sites in 1991. Volume 13

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, D.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1995-04-01

    Population and individual radiation dose commitments have been estimated from reported radionuclide releases from commercial power reactors operating during 1991. Fifty-year dose commitments for a one-year exposure from both liquid and atmospheric releases were calculated for four population groups (infant, child, teenager and adult) residing between 2 and 80 km from each of 72 reactor sites. This report tabulates the results of these calculations, showing the dose commitments for both water and airborne pathways for each age group and organ. Also included for each of the sites is an estimate of individual doses which are compared with 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix 1 design objectives. The total collective dose commitments (from both liquid and airborne pathways) for each site ranged from a high of 22 person-rem to a low of 0.002 person-rem for the sites with plants in operation and producing power during the year. The arithmetic mean was 1.2 person-rem. The total population dose for all sites was estimated at 88 person-rem for the 130 million people considered at risk. The individual dose commitments estimated for all sites were below the Appendix 1 design objectives.

  13. SU-E-J-92: Validating Dose Uncertainty Estimates Produced by AUTODIRECT, An Automated Program to Evaluate Deformable Image Registration Accuracy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, H; Chen, J; Pouliot, J [University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA (United States); Pukala, J [UF Health Cancer Center at Orlando Health, Orlando, FL (United States); Kirby, N [University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Deformable image registration (DIR) is a powerful tool with the potential to deformably map dose from one computed-tomography (CT) image to another. Errors in the DIR, however, will produce errors in the transferred dose distribution. We have proposed a software tool, called AUTODIRECT (automated DIR evaluation of confidence tool), which predicts voxel-specific dose mapping errors on a patient-by-patient basis. This work validates the effectiveness of AUTODIRECT to predict dose mapping errors with virtual and physical phantom datasets. Methods: AUTODIRECT requires 4 inputs: moving and fixed CT images and two noise scans of a water phantom (for noise characterization). Then, AUTODIRECT uses algorithms to generate test deformations and applies them to the moving and fixed images (along with processing) to digitally create sets of test images, with known ground-truth deformations that are similar to the actual one. The clinical DIR algorithm is then applied to these test image sets (currently 4) . From these tests, AUTODIRECT generates spatial and dose uncertainty estimates for each image voxel based on a Student’s t distribution. This work compares these uncertainty estimates to the actual errors made by the Velocity Deformable Multi Pass algorithm on 11 virtual and 1 physical phantom datasets. Results: For 11 of the 12 tests, the predicted dose error distributions from AUTODIRECT are well matched to the actual error distributions within 1–6% for 10 virtual phantoms, and 9% for the physical phantom. For one of the cases though, the predictions underestimated the errors in the tail of the distribution. Conclusion: Overall, the AUTODIRECT algorithm performed well on the 12 phantom cases for Velocity and was shown to generate accurate estimates of dose warping uncertainty. AUTODIRECT is able to automatically generate patient-, organ- , and voxel-specific DIR uncertainty estimates. This ability would be useful for patient-specific DIR quality assurance.

  14. Challenges to protocol optimization due to unexpected variation of CT contrast dose amount and flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tracy J; Robinson, Jeffrey D; Hippe, Daniel S; Mitsumori, Lee M

    2013-06-01

    High-quality computed tomography (CT) exams are critical to maximizing radiologist's interpretive ability. Exam quality in part depends on proper contrast administration. We examined injector data from consecutive abdominal and pelvic CT exams to analyze variation in contrast administration. Discrepancies between intended IV contrast dose and flow rate with the actual administered contrast dose and measured flow rate were common. In particular, delivered contrast dose discrepancies of at least 10% occurred in 13% of exams while discrepancies in flow rate of at least 10% occurred in 42% of exams. Injector logs are useful for assessing and tracking this type of variability which may confound contrast administration optimization and standardization efforts.

  15. External doses to 350 m zone residents due to anisotropic radiation from the JCO criticality accident in Tokai-mura

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takada, Jun [Hiroshima Univ., Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, International Radiation Information Center, Kasumi, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2001-11-01

    The validity of method on the individual dose reconstruction based on the anisotropic radiation distribution was confirmed by comparison with dose from Na-24 whole body counting for the seven persons in the western side neighbor company of JCO campus. The successful coincidence between D{sub i} (Na-24) and D{sub i} (Present) also supports the validity of the second version of D(r) reported by Head Office of Countermeasure. The present dose reconstruction for the 350 m zone in the western side showed average value of 0.7 mSv and maximal value of 3.1 mSv, as indoor-dose under the assumption of effective transmittance of 0.4 for all the houses. If all the residents in 350 m zone were indoors during the accident, 83% of them might have received external doses of less than 1 mSv. Radiation exposure to the nearest residential area in the southern west direction was significantly reduced with I(O{sub j}) between 0.4 and 0.2 by several buildings in JCO campus. The present study on public dose confirms that the official report on public dose (the maximal value of 21 mSv for individual dose) from Head Office of Countermeasure is significantly overestimated due to their isotropic treatment of radiation from the source. (author)

  16. External doses to 350 m zone residents due to anisotropic radiation from the JCO criticality accident in Tokai-mura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, J

    2001-09-01

    The validity of a method for individual dose reconstruction based on the anisotropic radiation distribution was confirmed by a comparison with the dose from Na-24 whole-body counting for seven persons at a neighboring company located on the western side of the JCO campus. The successful coincidence between Di (Na-24) and Di (present) also supports the validity of the second version of D(r) reported by the Head Office of Countermeasure. The present dose reconstruction for the 350 m zone at the western side showed an average value of 0.7 mSv and a maximal value of 3.1 mSv, as indoor-dose under the assumption of an effective transmittance of 0.4 for all of the houses. If all of the residents in 350 m zone were indoors during the accident, 83% of them might have received external doses of less than 1 mSv. The radiation exposure to the nearest residential area in the southern-west direction was significantly reduced with phi(theta(i)) between 0.4 and 0.2 by several buildings on the JCO campus. The present study on the public dose confirms that the official report on the public dose (the maximal value of 21 mSv for individual doses) from Head Office of Countermeasure is significantly overestimated due to their isotropic treatment of radiation from the source.

  17. Effective dose to immuno-PET patients due to metastable impurities in cyclotron produced zirconium-89

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfuraih, Abdulrahman; Alzimami, Khalid; Ma, Andy K.; Alghamdi, Ali; Al Jammaz, Ibrahim

    2014-11-01

    Immuno-PET is a nuclear medicine technique that combines positron emission tommography (PET) with radio-labeled monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for tumor characterization and therapy. Zirconium-89 (89Zr) is an emerging radionuclide for immuno-PET imaging. Its long half-life (78.4 h) gives ample time for the production, the administering and the patient uptake of the tagged radiopharmaceutical. Furthermore, the nuclides will remain in the tumor cells after the mAbs are catabolized so that time series studies are possible without incurring further administration of radiopharmarceuticals. 89Zr can be produced in medical cyclotrons by bombarding an yttrium-89 (89Y) target with a proton beam through the 89Y(p,n)89Zr reaction. In this study, we estimated the effective dose to the head and neck cancer patients undergoing 89Zr-based immune-PET procedures. The production of 89Zr and the impurities from proton irradiation of the 89Y target in a cyclotron was calculated with the Monte Carlo code MCNPX and the nuclear reaction code TALYS. The cumulated activities of the Zr isotopes were derived from real patient data in literature and the effective doses were estimated using the MIRD specific absorbed fraction formalism. The estimated effective dose from 89Zr is 0.5±0.2 mSv/MBq. The highest organ dose is 1.8±0.2 mSv/MBq in the liver. These values are in agreement with those reported in literature. The effective dose from 89mZr is about 0.2-0.3% of the 89Zr dose in the worst case. Since the ratio of 89mZr to 89Zr depends on the cooling time as well as the irradiation details, contaminant dose estimation is an important aspect in optimizing the cyclotron irradiation geometry, energy and time.

  18. ACUTRI a computer code for assessing doses to the general public due to acute tritium releases

    CERN Document Server

    Yokoyama, S; Noguchi, H; Ryufuku, S; Sasaki, T

    2002-01-01

    Tritium, which is used as a fuel of a D-T burning fusion reactor, is the most important radionuclide for the safety assessment of a nuclear fusion experimental reactor such as ITER. Thus, a computer code, ACUTRI, which calculates the radiological impact of tritium released accidentally to the atmosphere, has been developed, aiming to be of use in a discussion of licensing of a fusion experimental reactor and an environmental safety evaluation method in Japan. ACUTRI calculates an individual tritium dose based on transfer models specific to tritium in the environment and ICRP dose models. In this calculation it is also possible to analyze statistically on meteorology in the same way as a conventional dose assessment method according to the meteorological guide of the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan. A Gaussian plume model is used for calculating the atmospheric dispersion of tritium gas (HT) and/or tritiated water (HTO). The environmental pathway model in ACUTRI considers the following internal exposures: i...

  19. Caspofungin dose escalation for invasive candidiasis due to resistant Candida albicans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiederhold, Nathan P; Najvar, Laura K; Bocanegra, Rosie A; Kirkpatrick, William R; Patterson, Thomas F

    2011-07-01

    Previous in vivo studies have reported caspofungin dose escalation to be effective against Candida glabrata with reduced susceptibility. We hypothesized that higher doses of caspofungin would be effective against invasive candidiasis caused by the more virulent species Candida albicans, including isolates resistant to this echinocandin. Immunocompetent mice were inoculated with one of three C. albicans isolates, including one susceptible and two resistant isolates with different FKS1 hot spot 1 point mutations. Mice received daily caspofungin treatment for 7 days and were then followed off therapy for 2 weeks to assess survival. Kidney tissue and blood were collected, and fungal burden and serum (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan were measured. Significant differences in virulence were observed among the three C. albicans isolates, which translated into differences in responses to caspofungin. The most virulent of the resistant isolates studied (isolate 43001; Fks1p F641S) did not respond to caspofungin doses of up to 10 mg/kg of body weight, as there were no differences in survival (survival range, 0 to 12% with treatment), tissue burden, or (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan concentration compared to those for untreated controls. Higher doses of caspofungin did improve survival against the second resistant isolate (53264; Fks1p S645P) that demonstrated reduced virulence (5 and 10 mg/kg; 80% survival). In contrast, caspofungin doses as low as 1 mg/kg improved survival (85 to 95%) and reduced tissue burden and (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan concentration against the susceptible isolate (ATCC 90028). These data suggest that caspofungin dose escalation for invasive candidiasis may not be consistently effective against resistant C. albicans isolates, and this may be associated with the virulence of the strain.

  20. Drug-induced interstitial pneumonitis due to low-dose lenalidomide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunimasa, Kei; Ueda, Tomoaki; Arita, Machiko; Maeda, Takeshi; Hotta, Machiko; Ishida, Tadashi

    2012-01-01

    Lenalidomide is a second-generation immunomodulatory drug that has been approved to treat relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Here, we describe a patient who was treated with a low dose of lenalidomide (5 mg/day on days 1-21 of a 28-day cycle) because the standard dose of bortezomib was too toxic and adverse events persisted. However, he developed fever, dyspnea, hypoxia and pulmonary infiltrates. The results of an extensive workup for other causes including infections were negative and the final diagnosis was lenalidomide-induced interstitial pneumonitis. This is the first case report of lenalidomide-induced pneumonitis in a Japanese patient.

  1. SU-E-T-493: Analysis of the Impact of Range and Setup Uncertainties On the Dose to Brain Stem and Whole Brain in the Passively Scattered Proton Therapy Plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahoo, N; Zhu, X; Zhang, X; Poenisch, F; Li, H; Wu, R; Lii, M; Umfleet, W; Gillin, M; Mahajan, A; Grosshans, D [MD Anderson Cancer Ctr., Houston, TX (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To quantify the impact of range and setup uncertainties on various dosimetric indices that are used to assess normal tissue toxicities of patients receiving passive scattering proton beam therapy (PSPBT). Methods: Robust analysis of sample treatment plans of six brain cancer patients treated with PSPBT at our facility for whom the maximum brain stem dose exceeded 5800 CcGE were performed. The DVH of each plan was calculated in an Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) version 11 applying ±3.5% range uncertainty and ±3 mm shift of the isocenter in x, y and z directions to account for setup uncertainties. Worst-case dose indices for brain stem and whole brain were compared to their values in the nominal plan to determine the average change in their values. For the brain stem, maximum dose to 1 cc of volume, dose to 10%, 50%, 90% of volume (D10, D50, D90) and volume receiving 6000, 5400, 5000, 4500, 4000 CcGE (V60, V54, V50, V45, V40) were evaluated. For the whole brain, maximum dose to 1 cc of volume, and volume receiving 5400, 5000, 4500, 4000, 3000 CcGE (V54, V50, V45, V40 and V30) were assessed. Results: The average change in the values of these indices in the worst scenario cases from the nominal plan were as follows. Brain stem; Maximum dose to 1 cc of volume: 1.1%, D10: 1.4%, D50: 8.0%, D90:73.3%, V60:116.9%, V54:27.7%, V50: 21.2%, V45:16.2%, V40:13.6%,Whole brain; Maximum dose to 1 cc of volume: 0.3%, V54:11.4%, V50: 13.0%, V45:13.6%, V40:14.1%, V30:13.5%. Conclusion: Large to modest changes in the dosiemtric indices for brain stem and whole brain compared to nominal plan due to range and set up uncertainties were observed. Such potential changes should be taken into account while using any dosimetric parameters for outcome evaluation of patients receiving proton therapy.

  2. Personnel dose assessment due to the normal operations with the artificial radiation sources according to the data from the unified system of individual dose control (USIDC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. I. Stepkin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was personnel dose assessment due to the normal operations with the artificial radiation sources. The article is based on the data from the Unified System of Individual Dose Control and Voronezh Region’s radiation-hygienic passport. The data from No.1-DOZ “Information on personnel exposure doses under normal operation of technogenic ionizing radiation sources” and over a period of 2006-2010 years were analyzed. In 2006-2015, the number of organizations, which submitted form No.1-DOZ “Information on personnel exposure doses under normal operation of technogenic ionizing radiation sources”, increased from 175 to 229. In amount of the radiation facilities, Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant is the first. Novovoronezh NPP has 1512 sources, which amounts to 51,9% from all sources in Voronezh Region (2915. Health care facilities have 869 radiation sources or 29,8%. X-ray machines are the main part of these sources (844 health care facilities or 97,1% of all medical sources. Industrial sources occupy third place with 305 facilities or 10,5% of all considered sources. In 2015, according to the data from Voronezh Region’s radiation-hygienic passport, the number of “A” group personnel were 4237, the number of “B” group personnel were 2341. The average individual dose for personnel was over the range from 0.66 to 2.02 mSv. Collective dose was from 4.16 to 11.79 man-sieverts per year. The increase of number of the radiation sources has attended with the decrease of individual and collective doses. The most likely it is related to using the modern facilities. In 2015, the maximum value of the average individual dose of “A” group personnel was registered in Voronezh regional hospital (6.17 mSv y–1. There are medical facilities with unsealed and sealed sources in this hospital. In 2006-2015, the average individual doses of personnel of all radiation facilities that use radiation sources in Voronezh

  3. Changes of radiation dose and image quality due to additional filtration material in computed radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Soon Mu; Cho, Hyung Wook [Dept. of Radiological Science, The Graduate School of Catholic University of Daegu, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Yeong Han [Dept. of Radiology, Catholic University Hospital of Daegu School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Boo Soon [Dept. of Radiologicic Technology, Daegu Health College, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Su [Dept. of Bio-convergence Engineering, Korea University Graduate School, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Filter absorbs low-energy X-ray to increase the average energy and reduces patient exposure dose. This study investigates if the materials of Mo and W could be used for the digital imaging device CR by conducting image assessment and dose measurement of SNR, FOM and histogram. In addition, measurement of beam quality was conducted depending on the material of the filter, and at the same time, a proper combination of filters was examined depending on the change in tube voltage (kVp). In regard to entrance skin dose, Mo filter showed the dose reduction by 42∼56%, compared to Cu filter. Moreover, Mo filter showed higher transmission dose by around 1.5 times than that of Cu filter. In image assessment, it was found that W was unsuitable to be used as a filter, whereas Mo could be used as a filter to reduce dose without decline in image quality at the tube voltage of 80 kVp or higher. As tube voltage increased, 2.0 mm Al+0.1 mm Mo almost had a similar histogram width to that of 2.0 mm Al+0.2 mm Cu. Therefore, Mo filter can be used at relatively high tube voltage of 80 kVp, 100 kVp and 120 kVp. The SNR of 2.0 mm Al+0.1 mm Mo did not show any significant difference from those of 2.0 mm Al+0.2 mm Cu and 2.0 mm Al+0.1 mm Cu. As a result, if Mo filter is used to replace Cu filter in general radiography, where 80 kVp or higher is used for digital radiation image, patient exposure dose can be reduced significantly without decline in image quality, compared to Cu filter. Therefore, it is believed that Mo filter can be applied to chest X-ray and high tube voltage X-ray in actual clinical practice.

  4. Methodology for estimating radiation doses due to tritium and radiocarbon releases. [Health hazards from thermonuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, D.A.; Soldat, J.K.

    1976-09-01

    Although the exact release rates of tritium (/sup 3/H) and /sup 14/C to the environment from a fusion power plant are not known, unit dose rates from postulated releases to air or to surface water can be calculated for a hypothetical individual and for population groups. Assuming a tritium release of 1 curie per year (Ci/yr) as HTO to the atmosphere, a hypothetical maximum individual residing near a fusion power plant might receive a dose rate of 2 x 10/sup -3/ millirem per year (mrem/yr). Assuming a 1 Ci/yr release to surface waters, this individual might receive a dose rate of 1.5 x 10/sup -5/ mrem/yr. The dose rate to the population of the world including the United Sates and the regional population was estimated to be 1 x 10/sup -2/ man-rem/yr from the release to the atmosphere and 6 x 10/sup -2/ man-rem/yr from the release to surface waters. Dose rates from releases of 1 Ci/yr /sup 14/C to the atmosphere were estimated to be 0.4 mrem/yr to the bone of the hypothetical maximum individual and 2 man-rem/yr to the total body of the world population. Because of the persistence of /sup 14/C in the environment and the fact that carbon is a major constituent of any living thing, efforts should be made to eliminate those releases with available technology such as double containment of the reactors to prevent air leakage.

  5. Patient radiation exposure dose evaluation of whole spine scanography due to exposure direction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jung Su; Seo, Deok Nam [Dept. of Bio-convergence Engineering, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Soon Mu [Dept. of Radiologic Technology, Daegu Health College, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Min [Dept. of Radiological Science, Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    Whole spine scanography (WSS) is a radiological examination that exposes the whole body of the individual being examined to x-ray radiation. WSS is often repeated during the treatment period, which results in a much greater radiation exposure than that in routine x-ray examinations. The aims of the current study were to evaluate the patient dose of WSS using computer simulation, image magnification and angulation of phantom image using different patient position. We evaluated the effective dose(ED) of 23 consecutive patients (M : F = 13:10) who underwent WSS, based on the automatic image pasting method for multiple exposure digital radiography. The Anterior-Posterior position(AP) and Posterior-Anterior position( PA) projection EDs were evaluated based on the PC based Monte Carlo simulation. We measured spine transverse process distance and angulation using DICOM measurement. For all patient, the average ED was 0.069 mSv for AP position and 0.0361 mSv for PA position. AP position calculated double exposure then PA position. For male patient, the average ED was 0.089 mSv(AP) and 0.050 mSv(PA). For female patient, the average ED was 0.0431 mSv(AP) and 0.026 mSv(PA). The transverse process of PA spine image measured 5% higher than AP but angulation of transverse process was no significant differences. In clinical practice, just by change the patient position was conformed to reduce the ED of patient. Therefore we need to redefine of protocol for digital radiography such as WSS, whole spine scanography, effective dose, patient exposure dose, exposure direction, protocol optimization.

  6. Uncertainties associated to the using of alanine/EPR for the dose interval in the radiotherapy; Incertezas associadas na utilizacao da alanina/RPE para o intervalo de dose da radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues Junior, O.; Campos, L. L. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The High Doses Laboratory of IPEN is developing a dosimetric system for high doses based on Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) of free radical radiation induced on alanine. The objective of this work is to present the efforts towards to improve the measure accuracy for doses in the range between 1-10 Gy. This system could be used as reference by radiotherapy services, as much in the quality control of the equipment, as for routine accompaniment of more complex handling where the total doses can reach some grays. The main problem for routine implantation is the calibration and the traceability of the system and many errors sources affects the accuracy of the measurements. In this work are discussed same aspects related on the uncertainty evaluation associated with high dose measurement using alanine and EPR. (author)

  7. Death due to fulminant neuroleptic malignant syndrome induced by low doses of haloperidol: a rare case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Donghua; Shao, Yu; Qin, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Jianhua; Liu, Ningguo; Li, Zhengdong; Huang, Ping; Chen, Yijiu

    2014-05-01

    The paper reports on a rare case of fulminant neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) with several risk factors, typical manifestation and rapid death induced by low doses of haloperidol. The pathological findings, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, diagnostic criteria, risk factors and other features of NMS are discussed. The importance of forensic pathologists being aware of the possibility of NMS as the cause of death in people taking antipsychotic drugs is stressed.

  8. ACUTRI: a computer code for assessing doses to the general public due to acute tritium releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokoyama, Sumi; Noguchi, Hiroshi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Ryufuku, Susumu; Sasaki, Toshihisa; Kurosawa, Naohiro [Visible Information Center, Inc., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2002-11-01

    Tritium, which is used as a fuel of a D-T burning fusion reactor, is the most important radionuclide for the safety assessment of a nuclear fusion experimental reactor such as ITER. Thus, a computer code, ACUTRI, which calculates the radiological impact of tritium released accidentally to the atmosphere, has been developed, aiming to be of use in a discussion of licensing of a fusion experimental reactor and an environmental safety evaluation method in Japan. ACUTRI calculates an individual tritium dose based on transfer models specific to tritium in the environment and ICRP dose models. In this calculation it is also possible to analyze statistically on meteorology in the same way as a conventional dose assessment method according to the meteorological guide of the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan. A Gaussian plume model is used for calculating the atmospheric dispersion of tritium gas (HT) and/or tritiated water (HTO). The environmental pathway model in ACUTRI considers the following internal exposures: inhalation from a primary plume (HT and/or HTO) released from the facilities and inhalation from a secondary plume (HTO) reemitted from the ground following deposition of HT and HTO. This report describes an outline of the ACUTRI code, a user guide and the results of test calculation. (author)

  9. Critical groups vs. representative person: dose calculations due to predicted releases from USEXA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, N.L.D., E-mail: nelson.luiz@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha (CTM/SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Rochedo, E.R.R., E-mail: elainerochedo@gmail.com [Instituto de Radiprotecao e Dosimetria (lRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mazzilli, B.P., E-mail: mazzilli@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    The critical group cf Centro Experimental Aramar (CEA) site was previously defined based 00 the effluents releases to the environment resulting from the facilities already operational at CEA. In this work, effective doses are calculated to members of the critical group considering the predicted potential uranium releases from the Uranium Hexafluoride Production Plant (USEXA). Basically, this work studies the behavior of the resulting doses related to the type of habit data used in the analysis and two distinct situations are considered: (a) the utilization of average values obtained from official institutions (IBGE, IEA-SP, CNEN, IAEA) and from the literature; and (b) the utilization of the 95{sup tb} percentile of the values derived from distributions fit to the obtained habit data. The first option corresponds to the way that data was used for the definition of the critical group of CEA done in former assessments, while the second one corresponds to the use of data in deterministic assessments, as recommended by ICRP to estimate doses to the so--called 'representative person' . (author)

  10. Simulation study of dose enhancement in a cell due to nearby carbon and oxygen in particle radiotherapy

    CERN Document Server

    Shin, Jae Ik; Cho, Sungho; Kim, Eun Ho; Song, Yongkeun; Jung, Won-Gyun; Yoo, SeungHoon; Shin, Dongho; Lee, Se Byeong; Yoon, Myonggeun; Incerti, Sebastian; Geso, Moshi; Rosenfeld, Anatoly B

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the dose-deposition enhancement by alpha-particle irradiation in a cellular model using carbon and oxygen chemical compositions.A simulation study was performed to study dose enhancement due to carbon and oxygen for a human cell where Geant4 code used for the alpha-particle irradiation to the cellular phantom. The characteristic of dose enhancement in the nucleus and cytoplasm by the alpha-particle radiation was investigated based on concentrations of the carbon and oxygen compositions and was compared with those by gold and gadolinium.The results show that both the carbon and oxygen-induced dose enhancement was found to be more effective than those of gold and gadolinium. We found that the dose-enhancement effect was more dominant in the nucleus than in the cytoplasm if carbon or oxygen is uniformly distributed in a whole cell. In the condition that the added chemical composition was inserted only into the cytoplasm, the effect of the dose enhancement in nucleus become...

  11. Uncertainty in a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations: An ensemble approach applied to ozone modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Mallet, Vivien; Sportisse, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    International audience; This paper estimates the uncertainty in the outputs of a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations. An ensemble of 20 simulations is generated from a reference simulation in which one key parameterization (chemical mechanism, dry deposition parameterization, turbulent closure, etc.) or one numerical approximation (grid size, splitting method, etc.) is changed at a time. Intercomparisons of the simulations and comparisons w...

  12. Evaluation of the increase of superficial dose due to thermoplastic immobilizing in radiotherapy; Avaliacao dos efeitos de superficializacao de dose por imobilizadores termoplasticos em radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbosa, Patricia O., E-mail: patriciaolibar@yahoo.com.b [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IF/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Batista, Delano V.S. [Instituto Nacional de Cancer (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Setor de Fisica Medica

    2010-07-01

    Perforated thermoplastic masks are used to provide patients immobilization. This procedure inserts a material in the path of the radiation beam, that attenuates and modifies the beam fluence and flatness. The present study evaluates the increase in skin dose as a result of using thermoplastic masks. Relative doses were measured on the surface of a solid water phantom, in the presence and absence of masks. These masks were stretched according to deformation patterns observed in clinical routine. The measurements were obtained with a plane-parallel chamber (Markus type 23343) and radiochromic film (EBT Gafchromic) for 6MV X-rays from a linear accelerator, and for a radiation beam from a cobalt therapy unit. The results showed that thermoplastic masks, whose thickness varied between 2 and 3 mm, increased the dose on the surface by a factor of 3. Due to the variations in the skin dose distribution, clinical procedures were suggested to minimize radiobiological damages in subcutaneous tissue, and to keep the skin sparing effect. (author)

  13. Evaluation of dose delivery accuracy due to variation in pitch and roll

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Chang Young; Bae, Sun Myung; Lee, Dong Hyung; Min, Soon Ki; Kang, Tae Young; Baek, Geum Mun [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, ASAN Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    The purpose of this study is to verify the accuracy of dose delivery according to the pitch and roll rotational setup error with 6D robotic couch in Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy ( IMRT ) for pelvic region in patients. Trilogy(Varian, USA) and 6D robotic couch(ProturaTM 1.4, CIVCO, USA) were used to measure and analyze the rotational setup error of 14 patients (157 setup cases) for pelvic region. The total 157 Images(CBCT 78, Radiography 79) were used to calculate the mean value and the incidence of pitch and roll rotational setup error with Microsoft Office Excel 2007. The measured data (3 mm, 3%) at the reference angle (0 °) without couch rotation of pitch and roll direction was compared to the others at different pitch and roll angles (1 °, 1.5 °, 2 °, 2.5 °) to verify the accuracy of dose delivery by using 2D array ionization chamber (I'mRT Matrixx, IBA Dosimetry, Germany) and MultiCube Phantom(IBA Dosimetry, Germany). Result from the data, gamma index was evaluated. The mean values of pitch and roll rotational setup error were 0.9±0.7 °, 0.5±0.6 °. The maximum values of them were 2.8 °, 2.0 °. All of the minimum values were zero. The mean values of gamma pass rate at four different pitch angles (1 °, 1.5 °, 2 °, 2.5 °) were 97.75%, 96.65%, 94.38% and 90.91%. The mean values of gamma pass rate at four different roll angles (1 °, 1.5 °, 2 °, 2.5 °) were 93.68%, 93.05%, 87.77% and 84.96%. when the same angles (1 °, 1.5 °, 2 ° ) of pitch and roll were applied simultaneously, The mean values of each angle were 94.90%, 92.37% and 87.88%, respectively. As a result of this study, it was able to recognize that the accuracy of dose delivered is lowered gradually as pitch and roll increases. In order to increase the accuracy of delivered dose, therefore, it is recommended to perform IGRT or correct patient's position in the pitch and roll direction, to improve the quality of treatment.

  14. Tomographic anthropomorphic models. Pt. 4. Organ doses for adults due to idealized external photon exposures

    CERN Document Server

    Zankl, M; Petoussi-Henss, N; Regulla, D

    2002-01-01

    The present report contains extensive tables and figures of conversion coefficients of organ and tissue equivalent dose, normalised to air kerma free in air for voxel anthropomorphic phantoms and for standard geometries of external photon radiation, estimated with Monte Carlo techniques. Four realistic adult voxel phantoms were used for the calculations, based on computed tomographic data of real people: three male phantoms, two of them being of average size, one representing a big man, and one female phantom of a tall and somewhat over weighted woman.

  15. Individual radiation exposure dose due to support activities at safe shelters in Fukushima Prefecture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Monzen

    Full Text Available Immediately after the accidents in the nuclear power stations in Fukushima on March 11, the Japanese Government ordered the evacuation of the residents within a 20-km radius from the station on March 12, and asked various institutions to monitor the contamination levels of the residents. Hirosaki University, which is located 355 km north of Fukushima City, decided to send support staff to Fukushima. This report summarizes the results of the exposure of 13 individual teams from March 15 to June 20. The support teams surveyed more than 5,000 people during this period. Almost all subjects had external contamination levels of less than 13 kcpm on Geiger-Müller (GM survey meter, which is categorized as "no contamination level." The 1(st team showed the highest external exposure dose, but the 4(th team onward showed no significant change. Subsequently, the internal radiation exposure was measured using a whole body counter that indicated undetectable levels in all staff members. Although the measured external radiation exposure dose cannot have serious biological effects on the health of an individual, a follow-up study of the residents in Fukushima and other regions where the radioactive material has spread will be required for a long time.

  16. Calculation of Doses Due to Accidentally Released Plutonium From An LMFBR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fish, B.R.

    2001-08-07

    Experimental data and analytical models that should be considered in assessing the transport properties of plutonium aerosols following a hypothetical reactor accident have been examined. Behaviors of released airborne materials within the reactor containment systems, as well as in the atmosphere near the reactor site boundaries, have been semiquantitatively predicted from experimental data and analytical models. The fundamental chemistry of plutonium as it may be applied in biological systems has been used to prepare models related to the intake and metabolism of plutonium dioxide, the fuel material of interest. Attempts have been made to calculate the possible doses from plutonium aerosols for a typical analyzed release in order to evaluate the magnitude of the internal exposure hazards that might exist in the vicinity of the reactor after a hypothetical LMFBR (Liquid-Metal Fast Breeder Reactor) accident. Intake of plutonium (using data for {sup 239}Pu as an example) and its distribution in the body were treated parametrically without regard to the details of transport pathways in the environment. To the extent possible, dose-response data and models have been reviewed, and an assessment of their adequacy has been made so that recommended or preferred practices could be developed.

  17. SU-E-T-279: Dose Enhancement Effect Due to Cerium Oxide Nanoparticles Employed as Radiation Protectants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ouyang, Z; Altundal, Y; Sajo, E [Univ Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA (United States); Ngwa, W [Univ Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA (United States); Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical, Boston, MA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The goal of radiotherapy is to maximize radiation dose to diseased cells while minimizing radiation damage to normal tissues. In order to minimize damage to normal tissues, cerium oxide nanoparticles (nanoceria) are currently considered as a radioprotectant. However, some studies have reported concerns that nanoceria can also lead to radiotherapy dose enhancement due to the high atomic number of cerium, especially when used in conjunction with kV energy and brachytherapy sources. In this study, this concern is investigated to determine if the concentrations of nanoceria employed in in-vivo studies to confer radioprotection can engender a significant dose enhancement. Methods: Radiation with energies ranging from 50kVp to 140kVp is investigated in this work along with brachytherapy sources Pd-103 and I-125. A previously established theoretical model is used to calculate the dose enhancement factor (DEF). In this model, each cell is assumed to be a voxel of size (10 µm, 10 µm, 10 µm) with nanoceria homogeneously distributed among them. Electron energy loss formula of Cole is used to calculate energy (and hence dose) deposited by photoelectrons and Auger electrons in each tissue voxel due to irradiation of nanoceria. The DEF is defined as the ratio of the dose with and without nanoparticles. Results: DEF calculation results are smaller than 1.02 with dosages of nanoceria smaller than 0.645 mg/g, which is shown to be sufficiently protective by some previous in-vitro and in-vivo experiments. The brachytherapy sources show higher DEF’s than kVp radiations. DEF peaks are consistent with K shell and L shell energies of cerium, 40 keV and 6 keV, respectively. Conclusion: The results show that for sufficiently radioprotective concentrations of nanoceria, there will be minimal DEF when used in conjunction with clinically applicable kV energy radiotherapy sources or brachytherapy sources.

  18. Variation in target and rectum dose due to prostate deformation: an assessment by repeated MR imaging and treatment planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerkhof, E M; Put, R W van der; Raaymakers, B W; Heide, U A van der; Vulpen, M van; Lagendijk, J J W [Department of Radiotherapy, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht (Netherlands)], E-mail: E.Kerkhof@umcutrecht.nl

    2008-10-21

    In daily clinical practice, implanted fiducial markers are used to correct for prostate motion, but not for prostate deformation. The aim of this study is to investigate the variation in target and rectum dose due to the deformation of the prostate gland (without seminal vesicles). Therefore, we performed five to six MRI scans of eight healthy volunteers that exhibited large variation in rectal volume and thus prostate deformation. Prostate motion was corrected by a mask-based rigid registration which uses the delineation as well as the internal structures of the prostate gland. Per MRI scan, one IMRT plan with a PTV margin of 4 mm was created, resulting in 41 IMRT plans. The dose distribution of the IMRT plan based on the MRI scan with the minimum rectal volume was applied to the other rigidly registered MRI scans to evaluate the impact of prostate deformation. In conclusion, pre-treatment planning on the minimum rectal volume can cause a fraction dose increase (up to 15%) to the rectum due to prostate deformation. The impact on the total dose increase to the rectum depends on the intrapatient rectum variation during treatment, but is negligible with the currently used PTV margins in a fractionated treatment.

  19. Variation in target and rectum dose due to prostate deformation: an assessment by repeated MR imaging and treatment planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhof, E. M.; van der Put, R. W.; Raaymakers, B. W.; van der Heide, U. A.; van Vulpen, M.; Lagendijk, J. J. W.

    2008-10-01

    In daily clinical practice, implanted fiducial markers are used to correct for prostate motion, but not for prostate deformation. The aim of this study is to investigate the variation in target and rectum dose due to the deformation of the prostate gland (without seminal vesicles). Therefore, we performed five to six MRI scans of eight healthy volunteers that exhibited large variation in rectal volume and thus prostate deformation. Prostate motion was corrected by a mask-based rigid registration which uses the delineation as well as the internal structures of the prostate gland. Per MRI scan, one IMRT plan with a PTV margin of 4 mm was created, resulting in 41 IMRT plans. The dose distribution of the IMRT plan based on the MRI scan with the minimum rectal volume was applied to the other rigidly registered MRI scans to evaluate the impact of prostate deformation. In conclusion, pre-treatment planning on the minimum rectal volume can cause a fraction dose increase (up to 15%) to the rectum due to prostate deformation. The impact on the total dose increase to the rectum depends on the intrapatient rectum variation during treatment, but is negligible with the currently used PTV margins in a fractionated treatment.

  20. Variation in target and rectum dose due to prostate deformation: an assessment by repeated MR imaging and treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhof, E M; van der Put, R W; Raaymakers, B W; van der Heide, U A; van Vulpen, M; Lagendijk, J J W

    2008-10-21

    In daily clinical practice, implanted fiducial markers are used to correct for prostate motion, but not for prostate deformation. The aim of this study is to investigate the variation in target and rectum dose due to the deformation of the prostate gland (without seminal vesicles). Therefore, we performed five to six MRI scans of eight healthy volunteers that exhibited large variation in rectal volume and thus prostate deformation. Prostate motion was corrected by a mask-based rigid registration which uses the delineation as well as the internal structures of the prostate gland. Per MRI scan, one IMRT plan with a PTV margin of 4 mm was created, resulting in 41 IMRT plans. The dose distribution of the IMRT plan based on the MRI scan with the minimum rectal volume was applied to the other rigidly registered MRI scans to evaluate the impact of prostate deformation. In conclusion, pre-treatment planning on the minimum rectal volume can cause a fraction dose increase (up to 15%) to the rectum due to prostate deformation. The impact on the total dose increase to the rectum depends on the intrapatient rectum variation during treatment, but is negligible with the currently used PTV margins in a fractionated treatment.

  1. Local and distant chemical burns due to cetrimide injection in a massive dose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar S

    1990-01-01

    Full Text Available Sixty ml of 20% cetrimide shampoo solution was injected subcutaneously around the left elbow by a drug addict to commit suicide. Edema, blisters with skip areas and, cellulitis were noted within 6 hours, not only around the site of the injection but also upto the wrist and the pectoral region. Muscles were protected by the tough deep fascia. There was no systemic toxidcity despite receiving at least 4 times the reported fatal dose. The patient was treated with multiple fasciotomies, broad spectrum antibiotics, an atory drugs, iunb elevation and daily dressings, followed by secondary suturing of fasciotomy wounds when the limb edema regressed. The cutaneous bums healed without needing skin grafts.

  2. Distributive shock due to systemic capillary leak syndrome treated with high-dose immunosuppression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, James Robert; Keating, Liza; Chan, Antoni; Walden, Andrew

    2013-04-09

    A female patient in her 60s presented with a history of malaise, chills, headache and vomiting. She was in shock on presentation with a high haematocrit and a low albumin with evidence of rhabdomyolysis. Severe limb and truncal oedema developed with worsening hypotension leading to intensive care unit admission for multiple organ support. Extensive radiological, microbiological and immunological work up was negative with the exception of a monoclonal gammopathy. A review of patient investigations led to a diagnosis of Clarkson's disease. Treatment with high-dose methylprednisolone and intravenous immunoglobulins led to a rapid decline in the creatine kinase (CK) level and vasopressor requirements. The patient was discharged home on long-term terbutaline and has made a good recovery.

  3. Uncertainty analysis in 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) cancer dose-response for three occupational cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhaomin; Yuan, Guanxiang; Hu, Jianying

    2016-03-01

    While the U.S. EPA has issued a draft report with a 1% TCDD effective dose (ED01) of 87.9pg/kg/day based on continuous integration of key scientific evidence, a detailed and comprehensive uncertainty analysis has not been well documented. In this study, a new estimate for ED01 was derived based on uncertainty analysis by quantitatively assessing the potential bias arising from the selection of kinetic models, dose-response models and cohorts. The cumulative serum lipid concentration (CSLC) and cumulative body burden (CBB) were reconstructed as dose metrics using a concentration- and age-dependent pharmacokinetic model (CADM), physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK), and age-dependent half-life model (FV), and the reconstructed dose metrics based on CADM and PBPK were generally higher than those based on the FV model. Three dose-response curves (linear, multiplicative and power) were used to link dose metrics and cancer risk to estimate ED01, and the linear model resulted in the lowest ED01, followed by the power model and multiplicative model, for the same cohort. Meanwhile, ED01 based on the CADM model was the highest, followed by those based on the PBPK model and first-order model. Finally, the ED01 was estimated to be 17.03±7.83pg/kg/day by statistically analyzing the distribution of ED01 values based on various kinetic models, cohorts and dose-response models. The study presented here strengthens the scientific basis for understanding the potential health implications of TCDD exposure.

  4. Occupational doses due to photoneutrons in medical linear accelerators rooms; Doses ocupacionais devido a neutrons em salas de aceleradores lineares de uso medico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Alessandro Facure Neves de Salles

    2006-04-15

    Medical linear accelerators, with maximum photon energies above 10 MeV, are becoming of common use in Brazil. Although desirable in the therapeutic point of view, the increase in photon energies causes the generation of undesired neutrons, which are produced through nuclear reactions between photons and the high Z target nuclei of the materials that constitute the accelerator head. In this work, MCNP simulation was undertaken to examine the neutron equivalent doses around the accelerators head and at the entrance of medical linear accelerators treatment rooms, some of them licensed in Brazil by the National Regulatory Agency (CNEN). The simulated neutron dose equivalents varied between 2 e 26 {mu} Sv/Gy{sub RX}, and the results were compared with calculations performed with the use of some semi-empirical equations found in literature. It was found that the semi-empirical equations underestimate the simulated neutron doses in the majority of the cases, if compared to the simulated values, suggesting that these equations must be revised, due to the increasing number of high energy machines in the country. (author)

  5. Adaptation requirements due to anatomical changes in free-breathing and deep-inspiration breath-hold for standard and dose-escalated radiotherapy of lung cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sibolt, Patrik; Ottosson, Wiviann; Sjöström, David;

    2015-01-01

    Background. Radiotherapy of lung cancer patients is subject to uncertainties related to heterogeneities, anatomical changes and breathing motion. Use of deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) can reduce the treated volume, potentially enabling dose-escalated (DE) treatments. This study was designed...

  6. Accounting for uncertainty due to 'last observation carried forward' outcome imputation in a meta-analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrakopoulou, Vasiliki; Efthimiou, Orestis; Leucht, Stefan; Salanti, Georgia

    2015-02-28

    Missing outcome data are a problem commonly observed in randomized control trials that occurs as a result of participants leaving the study before its end. Missing such important information can bias the study estimates of the relative treatment effect and consequently affect the meta-analytic results. Therefore, methods on manipulating data sets with missing participants, with regard to incorporating the missing information in the analysis so as to avoid the loss of power and minimize the bias, are of interest. We propose a meta-analytic model that accounts for possible error in the effect sizes estimated in studies with last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputed patients. Assuming a dichotomous outcome, we decompose the probability of a successful unobserved outcome taking into account the sensitivity and specificity of the LOCF imputation process for the missing participants. We fit the proposed model within a Bayesian framework, exploring different prior formulations for sensitivity and specificity. We illustrate our methods by performing a meta-analysis of five studies comparing the efficacy of amisulpride versus conventional drugs (flupenthixol and haloperidol) on patients diagnosed with schizophrenia. Our meta-analytic models yield estimates similar to meta-analysis with LOCF-imputed patients. Allowing for uncertainty in the imputation process, precision is decreased depending on the priors used for sensitivity and specificity. Results on the significance of amisulpride versus conventional drugs differ between the standard LOCF approach and our model depending on prior beliefs on the imputation process. Our method can be regarded as a useful sensitivity analysis that can be used in the presence of concerns about the LOCF process.

  7. Modification of SRIM-calculated dose and injected ion profiles due to sputtering, injected ion buildup and void swelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jing; Toloczko, Mychailo B.; Bailey, Nathan; Garner, Frank A.; Gigax, Jonathan; Shao, Lin

    2016-11-01

    In radiation effects on materials utilizing self-ion irradiations, it is necessary to calculate the local displacement damage level and ion injection profile because of the short distance that self-ions travel in a material and because of the strong variation of displacement rate with depth in a specimen. The most frequently used tool for this is the software package called Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM). A SRIM-calculated depth-dependent dose level is usually determined under the implicit assumption that the target does not undergo any significant changes in volume during the process, in particular SRIM ignores the effect of sputtering, injected ions, and void swelling on the redistribution of the dose and injected ion profiles. This approach become increasingly invalid as the ion fluence reaches ever higher levels, especially for low energy ion irradiations. The original surface is not maintained due to sputter-induced erosion, while within the irradiated region of the specimen, injected ions are adding material, and if void swelling is occurring, it is creating empty space. An iterative mathematical treatment of SRIM outputs to produce corrected dose and injected ion profiles based on these phenomenon and without regard to diffusion is presented along with examples of differences between SRIM-calculated values and corrected values over a range of typical ion energies. The intent is to provide the reader with a convenient tool for more accurately calculating dose and injected ion profiles for heavy-ion irradiations.

  8. Estimation of tumour dose enhancement due to gold nanoparticles during typical radiation treatments: a preliminary Monte Carlo study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, S H [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd, Unit 94, Houston, TX 77030 (United States)

    2005-08-07

    A recent mice study demonstrated that gold nanoparticles could be safely administered and used to enhance the tumour dose during radiation therapy. The use of gold nanoparticles seems more promising than earlier methods because of the high atomic number of gold and because nanoparticles can more easily penetrate the tumour vasculature. However, to date, possible dose enhancement due to the use of gold nanoparticles has not been well quantified, especially for common radiation treatment situations. Therefore, the current preliminary study estimated this dose enhancement by Monte Carlo calculations for several phantom test cases representing radiation treatments with the following modalities: 140 kVp x-rays, 4 and 6 MV photon beams, and {sup 192}Ir gamma rays. The current study considered three levels of gold concentration within the tumour, two of which are based on the aforementioned mice study, and assumed either no gold or a single gold concentration level outside the tumour. The dose enhancement over the tumour volume considered for the 140 kVp x-ray case can be at least a factor of 2 at an achievable gold concentration of 7 mg Au/g tumour assuming no gold outside the tumour. The tumour dose enhancement for the cases involving the 4 and 6 MV photon beams based on the same assumption ranged from about 1% to 7%, depending on the amount of gold within the tumour and photon beam qualities. For the {sup 192}Ir cases, the dose enhancement within the tumour region ranged from 5% to 31%, depending on radial distance and gold concentration level within the tumour. For the 7 mg Au/g tumour cases, the loading of gold into surrounding normal tissue at 2 mg Au/g resulted in an increase in the normal tissue dose, up to 30%, negligible, and about 2% for the 140 kVp x-rays, 6 MV photon beam, and {sup 192}Ir gamma rays, respectively, while the magnitude of dose enhancement within the tumour was essentially unchanged. (note)

  9. Estimation of tumour dose enhancement due to gold nanoparticles during typical radiation treatments: a preliminary Monte Carlo study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sang Hyun

    2005-08-07

    A recent mice study demonstrated that gold nanoparticles could be safely administered and used to enhance the tumour dose during radiation therapy. The use of gold nanoparticles seems more promising than earlier methods because of the high atomic number of gold and because nanoparticles can more easily penetrate the tumour vasculature. However, to date, possible dose enhancement due to the use of gold nanoparticles has not been well quantified, especially for common radiation treatment situations. Therefore, the current preliminary study estimated this dose enhancement by Monte Carlo calculations for several phantom test cases representing radiation treatments with the following modalities: 140 kVp x-rays, 4 and 6 MV photon beams, and 192Ir gamma rays. The current study considered three levels of gold concentration within the tumour, two of which are based on the aforementioned mice study, and assumed either no gold or a single gold concentration level outside the tumour. The dose enhancement over the tumour volume considered for the 140 kVp x-ray case can be at least a factor of 2 at an achievable gold concentration of 7 mg Au/g tumour assuming no gold outside the tumour. The tumour dose enhancement for the cases involving the 4 and 6 MV photon beams based on the same assumption ranged from about 1% to 7%, depending on the amount of gold within the tumour and photon beam qualities. For the 192Ir cases, the dose enhancement within the tumour region ranged from 5% to 31%, depending on radial distance and gold concentration level within the tumour. For the 7 mg Au/g tumour cases, the loading of gold into surrounding normal tissue at 2 mg Au/g resulted in an increase in the normal tissue dose, up to 30%, negligible, and about 2% for the 140 kVp x-rays, 6 MV photon beam, and 192Ir gamma rays, respectively, while the magnitude of dose enhancement within the tumour was essentially unchanged.

  10. SU-E-T-367: Evaluate the Dosimetric Impacts On Patient Specific Treatment Plans Due to Set Up Uncertainties During LINAC Annual QA and Commission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V; Wang, B [James Graham Brown Cancer Center, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY (United States); Shi, C [Saint Vincent Medical Center, Bridgeport, CT (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To quantify the dosimetric impact on patient’s specific treatment plans due to set up uncertainties during LINAC commission and annual QA and to determine the maximum set up uncertainty allowance range. Methods: A 60×60×60 cm{sup 3} solid water cube was created in Varian Eclipse TPS. Beam data profiles (crossline and diagonal) and PDDs for field sizes ranging from 2×2 cm{sup 2} to 40×40 cm{sup 2} were simulated. Three main uncertainty scenarios were purposely introduced for gantry position tilts (0–5°), source axis distance changes (100–105 cm), and iso-center position shifts (0–5 mm) during the simulation. A gamma analysis was used to compare the correct simulated profiles with the profiles for each scenario. Two static IMRT treatment plans (H&N and GYN) with tumors at 5 cm and 15 cm depths were compared using similar set up uncertainties. Results: A gamma analysis using ±3%/±3mm with 90% passing rate criteria is included to show the passing rate for each scenario. Crossline and diagonal profiles showed a gamma passing rating of ≥ 90% at depth ≤10 cm for these scenarios: gantry tilted from 0–5°, SAD changed from 100–105 cm, and iso-center shifted ≤ 4 mm. From 10 to 20 cm depths, all three scenarios failed with gamma passing ≤ 90% excepted for diagonal profiles at Gantry =2°, SAD =1 cm, and iso-center =1 mm off center. Diagonal profiles showed a higher gamma passing rating compared to crossline profiles for all three scenarios. PDD differences also increased as depth increased. For patient’s specific treatment plans, maximum uncertainties allowed to obtain a ≥90% gamma passing rating are: gantry tilts ±1 degree, SAD shifts ±2 cm, and iso-center moves ±3 mm. Conclusion: This study validated AAPM TG 142 recommendations on the mechanical and dosimetry uncertainties and provided proofs on maximum acceptance tolerances for LINAC annual QA and commission.

  11. Bone embrittlement and collagen modifications due to high-dose gamma-irradiation sterilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Brianne; Gaspar, Anne; Josey, David; Tupy, Jindra; Grynpas, Marc D; Willett, Thomas L

    2014-04-01

    Bone allografts are often used in orthopedic reconstruction of skeletal defects resulting from trauma, bone cancer or revision of joint arthroplasty. γ-Irradiation sterilization is a widely-used biological safety measure; however it is known to embrittle bone. Irradiation has been shown to affect the post-yield properties, which are attributed to the collagen component of bone. In order to find a solution to the loss of toughness in irradiated bone allografts, it is important to fully understand the effects of irradiation on bone collagen. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in the structure and integrity of bone collagen as a result of γ-irradiation, with the hypothesis that irradiation fragments collagen molecules leading to a loss of collagen network connectivity and therefore loss of toughness. Using cortical bone from bovine tibiae, sample beams irradiated at 33kGy on dry ice were compared to native bone beams (paired controls). All beams were subjected to three-point bend testing to failure followed by characterization of the decalcified bone collagen, using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), hydrothermal isometric tension testing (HIT), high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). The carbonyl content of demineralized bone collagen was also measured chemically to assess oxidative damage. Barium sulfate staining after single edge notch bending (SEN(B)) fracture testing was also performed on bovine tibia bone beams with a machined and sharpened notch to evaluate the fracture toughness and ability of irradiated bone to form micro-damage during fracture. Irradiation resulted in a 62% loss of work-to-fracture (p≤0.001). There was significantly less micro-damage formed during fracture propagation in the irradiated bone. HPLC showed no significant effect on pentosidine, pyridinoline, or hydroxypyridinoline levels suggesting that the loss of toughness is not due to changes in these stable crosslinks. For

  12. Quantifying the uncertainty in simulating global tropospheric composition due to the variability in global emission estimates of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The emission of organic compounds from biogenic processes acts as an important source of trace gases in remote regions away from urban conurbations, and is likely to become more important in future decades due to the further mitigation of anthropogenic emissions that affect air quality and climate forcing. In this study we examine the contribution of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs towards global tropospheric composition using the global 3-D chemistry transport model TM5 and the recently developed modified CB05 chemical mechanism. By comparing regional BVOC emission estimates we show that biogenic processes act as dominant sources for many regions and exhibit a large variability in the annually and seasonally integrated emission fluxes. By performing sensitivity studies we find that the contribution of BVOC species containing between 1 to 3 carbon atoms has an impact on the resident mixing ratios of tropospheric O3 and CO, accounting for ~3% and ~11% of the simulated global distribution, respectively. This is approximately a third of the cumulative effect introduced by isoprene and the monoterpenes. By examining an ensemble of 3-D global chemistry-transport simulations which adopt different global BVOC emission inventories we determine the associated uncertainty introduced towards simulating the composition of the troposphere for the year 2000. By comparing the model ensemble values against a~composite of atmospheric measurements we show that the effects on tropospheric O3 are limited to the lower troposphere (with an uncertainty between −2% to 10%, whereas that for tropospheric CO extends up to the upper troposphere (with an uncertainty of between 10 to 45%. Comparing the mixing ratios for low molecular weight alkenes in TM5 against surface measurements taken in Europe implies that the cumulative emission estimates are too low, regardless of the chosen BVOC inventory. This variability in the global

  13. Radon-222 in groundwater and effective dose due to ingestion and inhalation in the city of Ibadan, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ademola, Janet Ayobami; Oyeleke, Oyebode Akanni

    2017-03-20

    Radon concentration in groundwater collected from the eleven Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Ibadan, Nigeria, was analyzed. Annual effective doses due to ingestion and inhalation of radon from the consumption of the water were determined. The arithmetic means (AMs) of radon concentration for the 11 LGAs varied from 2.18 to 76.75 Bq l(-1) with a standard deviation of 1.57 and 70.64 Bq l(-1), respectively. The geometric means (GMs) varied from 1.67 to 49.47 Bq l(-1) with geometric standard deviation of 2.22 and 3.04, respectively. About 58% of the 84 water samples examined had a higher concentration of radon than the 11.1 Bq l(-1) recommended by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA); the AMs of six LGAs and GMs of three LGAs were higher than the recommended value. However the AMs and GMs of all the LGAs with about 93% of the water sampled were lower than the 100 Bq l(-1) recommended by the World Health Organization and EURATOM drinking water directive. The concentration of radon varied with the geological formation of the area. The AMs of the annual effective dose due to ingestion of radon in water ranged from 0.036 to 1.261 mSv y(-1), 0.071 to 2.521 mSv y(-1) and 0.042 to 1.471 mSv y(-1) for adult, child and infant, respectively and the GMs in the range of 0.026 to 0.813, 0.055 to 1.625 and 0.032 to 0.948 mSv y(-1), respectively. The AMs of 10 LGAs and GMs of 7 LGAs were higher than the recommended reference dose level of 0.1 mSv y(-1) from the consumption of water for the duration of one year for all the three categories of people. The AMs and GMs of the annual effective dose due to inhalation of radon in drinking water ranged from 0.533 to 18.82 μSv y(-1) and 0.411 to 12.13 μSv y(-1), respectively, contributing less to the overall dose.

  14. Bias in peak clad temperature predictions due to uncertainties in modeling of ECC bypass and dissolved non-condensable gas phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohatgi, U.S.; Neymotin, L.Y.; Jo, J.; Wulff, W. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA))

    1990-09-01

    This report describes a general method for estimating the effect on the Reflood Phase PCT from systematic errors (biases) associated with the modelling of the ECCS and dissolved nitrogen, and the application of this method in estimating biases in the Reflood Phase PCT (second PCT) predicted by the TRAC/PF1/MOD1, Version 14.3. The bias in the second PCT due to the uncertainty in the existing code models for ECCS related phenomena is {minus}19{degree}K ({minus}34{degree}F). The negative bias implies that the code models for this phenomena are conservative. The bias in the second PCT due to the lack of modelling of dissolved N{sub 2} in the code is estimated to be 9.9{degree}K (17.8{degree}F). The positive bias implies that the absence of dissolved N{sub 2} model makes the code prediction of PCT non-conservative. The bias estimation in this report is a major exception among all other uncertainty and bias assessments performed in conjunction with the CSAU methodology demonstration, because this bias estimation benefitted from using full-scale test data from the full-scale Upper Plenum Test Facility (UPTF). Thus, the bias estimates presented here are unaffected by scale distortions in test facilities. Data from small size facilities were also available and an estimate of bias based on these data will be conservative. 35 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs.

  15. Modification of SRIM-calculated dose and injected ion profiles due to sputtering, injected ion buildup and void swelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jing; Toloczko, Mychailo B.; Bailey, Nathan; Garner, Frank A.; Gigax, Jonathan; Shao, Lin

    2016-11-01

    In radiation effects on materials utilizing self-ion irradiations, it is necessary to calculate the local displacement damage level and ion injection profile because of the short distance that self-ions travel in a material and because of the strong variation of displacement rate with depth in a specimen. The most frequently used tool for this is the software package called Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM). A SRIM-calculated depth-dependent dose level is usually determined under the implicit assumption that the target does not undergo any significant changes in volume during the process, in particular SRIM ignores the effect of sputtering, injected ions, and void swelling on the redistribution of the dose and injected atom profiles. This approach become increasingly invalid as the ion fluence reaches ever higher levels, especially for low energy ion irradiations. The original surface is not maintained due to sputter-induced erosion, while within the irradiated region of the specimen, injected ions are adding material, and if void swelling is occurring, it is creating empty space. An iterative mathematical treatment of SRIM outputs to produce corrected dose and injected atom profiles is presented along with examples differences between SRIM-calculated values and corrected values over a range of typical ion energies.

  16. Uncertainties in wind speed dependent CO2 transfer velocities due to airflow distortion at anemometer sites on ships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Narita

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Data from platforms, research vessels and merchant ships are used to estimate ocean CO2 uptake via parameterisations of the gas transfer velocity (k and measurements of the difference between the partial pressures of CO2 in the ocean (pCO2 sw and atmosphere (pCO2 atm and of wind speed. Gas transfer velocities estimated using wind speed dependent parameterisations may be in error due to air flow distortion by the ship's hull and superstructure introducing biases into the measured wind speed. The effect of airflow distortion on estimates of the transfer velocity was examined by modelling the airflow around the three-dimensional geometries of the research vessels Hakuho Maru and Mirai, using the Large Eddy Simulation code GERRIS. For airflows within ±45° of the bow the maximum bias was +16%. For wind speed of 10 m s−1 to 15 m s−1, a +16% bias in wind speed would cause an overestimate in the calculated value of k of 30% to 50%, depending on which k parameterisation is used. This is due to the propagation of errors when using quadratic or cubic parameterisations. Recommendations for suitable anemometer locations on research vessels are given. The errors in transfer velocity may be much larger for typical merchant ships, as the anemometers are generally not as well-exposed as those on research vessels. Flow distortion may also introduce biases in the wind speed dependent k parameterisations themselves, since these are obtained by relating measurements of the CO2 flux to measurements of the wind speed and the CO2 concentration difference. To investigate this, flow distortion effects were estimated for three different platforms from which wind speed dependent parameterisations are published. The estimates ranged from −4% to +14% and showed that flow distortion may have a significant impact on wind speed dependent parameterisations. However, the wind biases are not large enough to explain the differences at high wind speeds in parameterisations

  17. Analysis of the ambient dose variation due to cosmic rays in Daejeon by using a neutron monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yun Ho; Kang, Jeongsoo; Jang, Doh-Yun; Son, Jae Bum; Kim, Yong-Kyun; Kim, Sung Joong

    2013-12-01

    The Basic Atomic Energy Research Institute of Hanyang University in Korea has constructed a cosmic-ray detection system that is presently being operated. In this study, the impact of cosmic-rays on 18-tube NM64-type neutron monitor installed in Daejeon was confirmed for the first time. In order to evaluate the reliability of the neutron monitor, we predicted the count rates from the neutron flux by using the Excel-based Program for calculating Atmospheric Cosmic-ray Spectrum (EXPACS); these predictions were then compared with experimental results. The predictions agree well with the results, with differences no greater than 3.95%. Also, changes in the neutron ambient dose equivalent rate from cosmic rays due to different environmental conditions were analyzed using EXPACS; the results obtained were compared with those of previous studies and were thus, confirmed to be reliable, suggesting that the detection system is suitable for making the relevant measurements. That detection system was then used to evaluate the neutron ambient dose equivalent rate for various environmental conditions in Daejeon. Finally, a conversion coefficient, defined as the ratio of counts from the neutron monitor to the neutron ambient dose equivalent, was obtained and included considerations of the impacts of geological factors and of meteorological factors of relative humidity and atmospheric depth. The derived formula fit the source data with an adjusted coefficient of determination ( R 2) of 0.9894 and a root-mean-square error of 1.7056 × 10-10, equivalent to about 1%. This confirmed satisfactory accuracy and reliability of the formula, thereby showing this methodology to be legitimate for use in evaluating the neutron ambient dose equivalent by using the Daejeon neutron monitor.

  18. Conformity assessment of multicomponent materials or objects: Risk of false decisions due to measurement uncertainty - A case study of denatured alcohols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; da Silva, Ricardo J N B; Brynn Hibbert, D

    2017-03-01

    Risk of a false decision on conformity of a multicomponent material or object due to measurement uncertainty is discussed. Even if conformity assessment for each component of a material sample is successful, the total probability of a false decision (total consumer's risk or producer's risk) concerning the sample as a whole might still be significant. A model of the total probability of such false decisions is formulated based on the law (theorem) of total probability. It is shown that the total risk can be evaluated as a combination of the particular risks of conformity assessment of sample components. For a more complicated task, i.e. for a larger number of components of a sample under control, the total risk is greater. As a case study, the total probability of false conforming (total consumer's risk) is evaluated for customs control of completely denatured alcohols, where conformity assessment is performed by comparison of chemical analytical test results with the regulatory limits.

  19. Structural, chemical surface and transport modifications of regenerated cellulose dense membranes due to low-dose {gamma}-radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vazquez, M.I. [Grupo de Caracterizacion Electrocinetica en Membranas e Interfases, Departamento de Fisica Aplicada I, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Malaga, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Heredia-Guerrero, J.A., E-mail: jose.alejandro@icmse.csic.es [Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales de Sevilla, Centro Mixto CSIC-Universidad de Sevilla, Avda, Americo Vespuccio 49, 41092 Sevilla (Spain); Galan, P. [Grupo de Caracterizacion Electrocinetica en Membranas e Interfases, Departamento de Fisica Aplicada I, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Malaga, E-29071 Malaga (Spain); Benitez, J.J. [Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales de Sevilla, Centro Mixto CSIC-Universidad de Sevilla, Avda, Americo Vespuccio 49, 41092 Sevilla (Spain); Benavente, J. [Grupo de Caracterizacion Electrocinetica en Membranas e Interfases, Departamento de Fisica Aplicada I, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Malaga, E-29071 Malaga (Spain)

    2011-04-15

    Research highlights: {yields} Low dose {gamma}-radiation causes slight structural, chemical and morphological changes on regenerated cellulose films. {yields} Induced structural changes increase the fragility of irradiated films. {yields} Structural modifications reduce ion permeability of films. - Abstract: Modifications caused in commercial dense regenerated cellulose (RC) flat membranes by low-dose {gamma}-irradiation (average photons energy of 1.23 MeV) are studied. Slight structural, chemical and morphological surface changes due to irradiation in three films with different RC content were determined by ATR-FTIR, XRD, XPS and AFM. Also, the alteration of their mechanical elasticity has been studied. Modification of membrane performance was determined from solute diffusion coefficient and effective membrane fixed charge concentration obtained from NaCl diffusion measurements. Induced structural changes defining new and effective fracture propagation directions are considered to be responsible for the increase of fragility of irradiated RC membranes. The same structural changes are proposed to explain the reduction of the membrane ion permeability through a mechanism involving either ion pathways elongation and/or blocking.

  20. Practical aspects and uncertainty analysis of biological effective dose (BED) regarding its three-dimensional calculation in multiphase radiotherapy treatment plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauweloa, Kevin I., E-mail: Kauweloa@livemail.uthscsa.edu; Gutierrez, Alonso N.; Bergamo, Angelo; Stathakis, Sotirios; Papanikolaou, Nikos; Mavroidis, Panayiotis [Department of Radiology, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas 78229 and Cancer Therapy and Research Center, San Antonio, Texas 78229 (United States)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: There is a growing interest in the radiation oncology community to use the biological effective dose (BED) rather than the physical dose (PD) in treatment plan evaluation and optimization due to its stronger correlation with radiobiological effects. Radiotherapy patients may receive treatments involving a single only phase or multiple phases (e.g., primary and boost). Since most treatment planning systems cannot calculate the analytical BED distribution in multiphase treatments, an approximate multiphase BED expression, which is based on the total physical dose distribution, has been used. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the mathematical properties of the approximate BED formulation, relative to the true BED. Methods: The mathematical properties of the approximate multiphase BED equation are analyzed and evaluated. In order to better understand the accuracy of the approximate multiphase BED equation, the true multiphase BED equation was derived and the mathematical differences between the true and approximate multiphase BED equations were determined. The magnitude of its inaccuracies under common clinical circumstances was also studied. All calculations were performed on a voxel-by-voxel basis using the three-dimensional dose matrices. Results: Results showed that the approximate multiphase BED equation is accurate only when the dose-per-fractions (DPFs) in both the first and second phases are equal, which occur when the dose distribution does not significantly change between the phases. In the case of heterogeneous dose distributions, which significantly vary between the phases, there are fewer occurrences of equal DPFs and hence the inaccuracy of the approximate multiphase BED is greater. These characteristics are usually seen in the dose distributions being delivered to organs at risk rather than to targets. Conclusions: The finding of this study indicates that the true multiphase BED equation should be implemented in the treatment planning

  1. Clinical Usefulness between High Dose Radioiodine Therapy and Helicobacter Pylori Infection after Total Thyroidectomy due to Well Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Kuk No; Lim, Seok Tae; Moon, Eun Ha; Kim, Jin Suk; Jeong, Young Jin; Kim, Dong Wook; Jeong, Hwan Jeong; Sohn, Myung Hee [Chonbuk National University Medical School and Hospital, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-12-15

    Helicobacter (H) pylori infection has been considered the most important cause of gastritis, dyspepsia, and gastroduodenal ulcer. Radioiodine can be accumulated in the remaining thyroid tissue, salivary gland, and stomach. We investigated if the high radiation induced by radioiodine in the stomach after high dose radioiodine therapy (HD-RIT) is effective in the eradication of H. pylori infection. One hundred ninety nine patients (M:F=33:166, age 46.7{+-}12.3 years) who had HD-RIT (dose 159.1{+-}25.9 mCi, range 120-250 mCi) after thyroidectomy due to well differentiated thyroid cancer were enrolled. To detect H. pylori infection, the urea breath tests (UBT) were performed at 1 hour before HD-RIT and at 4 weeks after HD-RIT. The results of UBT were classified as positive ({>=}50 dpm) or negative (<50 dpm), and analyzed its values. Of 199 patients, 103 (51.8%) patients had positive UBT before HD-RIT. Of these, 80 patients had follow-up UBT after HD-RIT. Among them, 76 (95.0%) patients had persistent positive UBT and only 4 (5.0%) patients were changed negative UBT. Among 76 patients with persistent positive UBT, 26 (34.2%) patients had increased the values of follow-up UBT, 49 (64.5%) had decreased them, and 1 (1.3%) had shown the same value. The different values of UBT between before and after HD-RIT were 62{+-}66.1 dpm in increased one of follow-up UBT, and 153.3{+-}157.1 dpm in decreased one of follow-up UBT. We conclude that the radiation induced by HD-RIT is ineffective in the eradication of H. pylori infection. However, it could be influential the degree or distribution of H. pylori infection.

  2. Annual committed effective dose from olive oil (due to 238U, 232Th, and 222Rn) estimated for members of the Moroccan public from ingestion and skin application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misdaq, M A; Touti, R

    2012-03-01

    Olive oil is traditionally refined and widely consumed by Moroccan rural populations. Uranium (238U), thorium (232Th), radon (222Rn), and thoron (220Rn) contents were measured in various locally produced olive oil samples collected in rural areas of Morocco. These radionuclides were also measured inside various bottled virgin olive oils consumed by the Moroccan populations. CR-39 and LR-115 type II solid state nuclear track detectors (SSNTDs) were used. Annual committed effective doses due to 238U, 232Th, and 222Rn from the ingestion of olive oil by the members of the general public were determined. The maximum total committed effective dose due to 238U, 232Th, and 222Rn from the ingestion of olive oil by adult members of Moroccan rural populations was found equal to 5.9 µSv y-1. The influence of pollution due to building material dusts and phosphates on the radiation dose to workers from the ingestion of olive oil was investigated, and it was found that the maximum total committed effective dose due to 238U, 232Th, and 222Rn was on the order of 0.22 mSy y-1. Committed effective doses to skin due to 238U, 232Th, and 222Rn from the application of olive oil masks by rural women were evaluated. The maximum total committed effective dose to skin due to 238U, 232Th, and 222Rn was found equal to 0.07 mSy y-1 cm-2.

  3. ASSESSMENT OF THE AVERAGE ANNUAL EFFECTIVE DOSES FOR THE INHABITANTS OF THE SETTLEMENTS LOCATED IN THE TERRITORIES CONTAMINATED DUE TO THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Vlasova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Catalogue of the average annual effective exposure doses of the inhabitants of the territories contaminated due to the Chernobul accident had been developed according to the method of the assessment of the average annual effective exposure doses of the settlements inhabitants. The cost-efficacy of the use of the average annual effective dose assessment method was 250 000 USD for the current 5 years. Average annual effective dose exceeded 1 mSv/year for 191 Belarus settlements from 2613. About 50 000 persons are living in these settlements.

  4. The calculation of dose from external photon exposures using reference human phantoms and Monte Carlo methods. Pt. 7. Organ doses due to parallel and environmental exposure geometries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zankl, M. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Drexler, G. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Petoussi-Henss, N. [GSF - Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit Neuherberg GmbH, Oberschleissheim (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Saito, K. [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    This report presents a tabulation of organ and tissue equivalent dose as well as effective dose conversion coefficients, normalised to air kerma free in air, for occupational exposures and environmental exposures of the public to external photon radiation. For occupational exposures, whole-body irradiation with idealised geometries, i.e. broad parallel beams and fully isotropic radiation incidence, is considered. The directions of incidence for the parallel beams are anterior-posterior, posterior-anterior, left lateral, right lateral and a full 360 rotation around the body`s longitudinal axis. The influence of beam divergence on the body doses is also considered as well as the dependence of effective dose on the angle of radiation incidence. Regarding exposure of the public to environmental sources, three source geometries are considered: exposure from a radioactive cloud, from ground contamination and from the natural radionuclides distributed homogeneously in the ground. The precise angular and energy distributions of the gamma rays incident on the human body were taken into account. The organ dose conversion coefficients given in this catalogue were calculated using a Monte Carlo code simulating the photon transport in mathematical models of an adult male and an adult female, respectively. Conversion coefficients are given for the equivalent dose of 23 organs and tissues as well as for effective dose and the equivalent dose of the so-called `remainder`. The organ equivalent dose conversion coefficients are given separately for the adult male and female models and - as arithmetic mean of the conversion coefficients of both - for an average adult. Fitted data of the coefficients are presented in tables; the primary raw data as resulting from the Monte Carlo calculation are shown in figures together with the fitted data. (orig.)

  5. NEW METHODICAL APPROACH FOR CALCULATION OF THE INDIVIDUALIZED INTERNAL DOSES OF PERSONS AFFECTED DUE TO THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Drozd

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The basis of methodical approach for calculation of the individualized internal doses is the con-firmed original scientific hypothesis that every group of individuals which are homogeneous on demographic characteristics (gender and age, on a curve of dose distribution that is constructed according to the data of individual measurements of Cs137 in the human body (WB measurements, has the determined location, thus, that is constant in time, i.e. percentiles of dose distribution corresponding to the average internal dose of every age group of men and women on a curve of dose distribution occupy the certain, steady in time, location. Keywords: individualized internal dose, percentile of dose distribution, stability.

  6. Quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance fluxes due to the use of different software packages and combinations of processing steps in two contrasting ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammarella, Ivan; Peltola, Olli; Nordbo, Annika; Järvi, Leena; Rannik, Üllar

    2016-10-01

    We have carried out an inter-comparison between EddyUH and EddyPro®, two public software packages for post-field processing of eddy covariance data. Datasets including carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour fluxes measured over 2 months at a wetland in southern Finland and carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes measured over 3 months at an urban site in Helsinki were processed and analysed. The purpose was to estimate the flux uncertainty due to the use of different software packages and to evaluate the most critical processing steps, determining the largest deviations in the calculated fluxes. Turbulent fluxes calculated with a reference combination of processing steps were in good agreement, the systematic difference between the two software packages being up to 2.0 and 6.7 % for half-hour and cumulative sum values, respectively. The raw data preparation and processing steps were consistent between the software packages, and most of the deviations in the estimated fluxes were due to the flux corrections. Among the different calculation procedures analysed, the spectral correction had the biggest impact for closed-path latent heat fluxes, reaching a nocturnal median value of 15 % at the wetland site. We found up to a 43 % median value of deviation (with respect to the run with all corrections included) if the closed-path carbon dioxide flux is calculated without the dilution correction, while the methane fluxes were up to 10 % lower without both dilution and spectroscopic corrections. The Webb-Pearman-Leuning (WPL) and spectroscopic corrections were the most critical steps for open-path systems. However, we found also large spectral correction factors for the open-path methane fluxes, due to the sensor separation effect.

  7. Variation of annual effective dose due to radon level in indoor air in Marwar region of Rajasthan, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rani, Asha, E-mail: ashasachdeva78@gmail.com [Department of Applied Science, Ferozepur College of Engineering and Technology, Farozshah, Ferozepur-142052, Punjab (India); Mittal, Sudhir, E-mail: sudhirmittal03@gmail.com [Department of Applied Sciences, Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar-144601, Punjab (India); Mehra, Rohit [Department of Physics, Dr. B.R.Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar-144011 (India)

    2015-08-28

    In the present work, indoor radon and thoron measurements have been carried out from different locations of Jodhpur and Nagaur districts of Northern Rajasthan, India using RAD7, a solid state alpha detector. The radon and thoron concentration in indoor air varies from 8.75 to 61.25 Bq m{sup −3} and 32.7 to 147.2 Bq m{sup −3} with the mean value of 32 and 73 Bq m{sup −3} respectively. The observed indoor radon concentration values are well below the action level recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (200-300 Bq m{sup −3}) and Environmental Protection Agency (148 Bq m{sup −3}). The survey reveals that the thoron concentration values in the indoor air are well within the International Commission on Radiological Protection (2005). The calculated total annual effective dose due to radon level in indoor air varies from 0.22 to 1.54 mSv y{sup −1} with the mean value of 0.81 mSv y{sup −1} which is less than even the lower limit of action level 3-10 mSv y{sup −1} recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (2005)

  8. SU-E-T-231: Measurements of Gold Nanoparticle-Mediated Proton Dose Enhancement Due to Particle-Induced X-Ray Emission and Activation Products Using Radiochromic Films and CdTe Detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, J; Cho, S [Dept. of Radiation Physics, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Manohar, N [Dept. of Radiation Physics, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States); Medical Physics Program, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia); Krishnan, S [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: There have been several reports of enhanced cell-killing and tumor regression when tumor cells and mouse tumors were loaded with gold nanoparticles (GNPs) prior to proton irradiation. While particle-induced xray emission (PIXE), Auger electrons, secondary electrons, free radicals, and biological effects have been suggested as potential mechanisms responsible for the observed GNP-mediated dose enhancement/radiosensitization, there is a lack of quantitative analysis regarding the contribution from each mechanism. Here, we report our experimental effort to quantify some of these effects. Methods: 5-cm-long cylindrical plastic vials were filled with 1.8 mL of either water or water mixed with cylindrical GNPs at the same gold concentration (0.3 mg Au/g) as used in previous animal studies. A piece of EBT2 radiochromic film (30-µm active-layer sandwiched between 80/175-µm outer-layers) was inserted along the long axis of each vial and used to measure dose enhancement due to PIXE from GNPs. Vials were placed at center-of-modulation (COM) and 3-cm up-/down-stream from COM and irradiated with 5 different doses (2–10 Gy) using 10-cm-SOBP 160-MeV protons. After irradiation, films were cleaned and read to determine the delivered dose. A vial containing spherical GNPs (20 mg Au/g) was also irradiated, and gamma-rays from activation products were measured using a cadmium-telluride (CdTe) detector. Results: Film measurements showed no significant dose enhancement beyond the experimental uncertainty (∼2%). There was a detectable activation product from GNPs, but it appeared to contribute to dose enhancement minimally (<0.01%). Conclusion: Considering the composition of EBT2 film, it can be inferred that gold characteristic x-rays from PIXE and their secondary electrons make insignificant contribution to dose enhancement. The current investigation also suggests negligible dose enhancement due to activation products. Thus, previously-reported GNP-mediated proton dose

  9. Influence of Colistin Dose on Global Cure in Patients with Bacteremia Due to Carbapenem-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Gabrielle A; Bauer, Seth R; Neuner, Elizabeth A; Bass, Stephanie N; Lam, Simon W

    2015-11-02

    The increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) nosocomial infections accounts for increased morbidity and mortality of such infections. Infections with MDR Gram-negative isolates are frequently treated with colistin. Based on recent pharmacokinetic studies, current colistin dosing regimens may result in a prolonged time to therapeutic concentrations, leading to suboptimal and delayed effective treatment. In addition, studies have demonstrated an association between an increased colistin dose and improved clinical outcomes. However, the specific dose at which these outcomes are observed is unknown and warrants further investigation. This retrospective study utilized classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to determine the dose of colistin most predictive of global cure at day 7 of therapy. Patients were assigned to high- and low-dose cohorts based on the CART-established breakpoint. The secondary outcomes included microbiologic outcomes, clinical cure, global cure, lengths of intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stays, and 7- and 28-day mortalities. Additionally, safety outcomes focused on the incidence of nephrotoxicity associated with high-dose colistin therapy. The CART-established breakpoint for high-dose colistin was determined to be >4.4 mg/kg of body weight/day, based on ideal body weight. This study evaluated 127 patients; 45 (35%) received high-dose colistin, and 82 (65%) received low-dose colistin. High-dose colistin was associated with day 7 global cure (40% versus 19.5%; P = 0.013) in bivariate and multivariate analyses (odds ratio [OR] = 3.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37 to 8.45; P = 0.008). High-dose colistin therapy was also associated with day 7 clinical cure, microbiologic success, and mortality but not with the development of acute kidney injury. We concluded that high-dose colistin (>4.4 mg/kg/day) is independently associated with day 7 global cure. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights

  10. Dose commitments due to radioactive releases from nuclear power plant sites: Methodology and data base. Supplement 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, D.A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-06-01

    This manual describes a dose assessment system used to estimate the population or collective dose commitments received via both airborne and waterborne pathways by persons living within a 2- to 80-kilometer region of a commercial operating power reactor for a specific year of effluent releases. Computer programs, data files, and utility routines are included which can be used in conjunction with an IBM or compatible personal computer to produce the required dose commitments and their statistical distributions. In addition, maximum individual airborne and waterborne dose commitments are estimated and compared to 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix 1, design objectives. This supplement is the last report in the NUREG/CR-2850 series.

  11. The Effect of Sensory Uncertainty Due to Amblyopia (Lazy Eye) on the Planning and Execution of Visually-Guided 3D Reaching Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niechwiej-Szwedo, Ewa; Goltz, Herbert C.; Chandrakumar, Manokaraananthan; Wong, Agnes M. F.

    2012-01-01

    Background Impairment of spatiotemporal visual processing in amblyopia has been studied extensively, but its effects on visuomotor tasks have rarely been examined. Here, we investigate how visual deficits in amblyopia affect motor planning and online control of visually-guided, unconstrained reaching movements. Methods Thirteen patients with mild amblyopia, 13 with severe amblyopia and 13 visually-normal participants were recruited. Participants reached and touched a visual target during binocular and monocular viewing. Motor planning was assessed by examining spatial variability of the trajectory at 50–100 ms after movement onset. Online control was assessed by examining the endpoint variability and by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2) which correlates the spatial position of the limb during the movement to endpoint position. Results Patients with amblyopia had reduced precision of the motor plan in all viewing conditions as evidenced by increased variability of the reach early in the trajectory. Endpoint precision was comparable between patients with mild amblyopia and control participants. Patients with severe amblyopia had reduced endpoint precision along azimuth and elevation during amblyopic eye viewing only, and along the depth axis in all viewing conditions. In addition, they had significantly higher R2 values at 70% of movement time along the elevation and depth axes during amblyopic eye viewing. Conclusion Sensory uncertainty due to amblyopia leads to reduced precision of the motor plan. The ability to implement online corrections depends on the severity of the visual deficit, viewing condition, and the axis of the reaching movement. Patients with mild amblyopia used online control effectively to compensate for the reduced precision of the motor plan. In contrast, patients with severe amblyopia were not able to use online control as effectively to amend the limb trajectory especially along the depth axis, which could be due to their

  12. The effect of sensory uncertainty due to amblyopia (lazy eye on the planning and execution of visually-guided 3D reaching movements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewa Niechwiej-Szwedo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Impairment of spatiotemporal visual processing in amblyopia has been studied extensively, but its effects on visuomotor tasks have rarely been examined. Here, we investigate how visual deficits in amblyopia affect motor planning and online control of visually-guided, unconstrained reaching movements. METHODS: Thirteen patients with mild amblyopia, 13 with severe amblyopia and 13 visually-normal participants were recruited. Participants reached and touched a visual target during binocular and monocular viewing. Motor planning was assessed by examining spatial variability of the trajectory at 50-100 ms after movement onset. Online control was assessed by examining the endpoint variability and by calculating the coefficient of determination (R(2 which correlates the spatial position of the limb during the movement to endpoint position. RESULTS: Patients with amblyopia had reduced precision of the motor plan in all viewing conditions as evidenced by increased variability of the reach early in the trajectory. Endpoint precision was comparable between patients with mild amblyopia and control participants. Patients with severe amblyopia had reduced endpoint precision along azimuth and elevation during amblyopic eye viewing only, and along the depth axis in all viewing conditions. In addition, they had significantly higher R(2 values at 70% of movement time along the elevation and depth axes during amblyopic eye viewing. CONCLUSION: Sensory uncertainty due to amblyopia leads to reduced precision of the motor plan. The ability to implement online corrections depends on the severity of the visual deficit, viewing condition, and the axis of the reaching movement. Patients with mild amblyopia used online control effectively to compensate for the reduced precision of the motor plan. In contrast, patients with severe amblyopia were not able to use online control as effectively to amend the limb trajectory especially along the depth axis, which

  13. Evaluation of total effective dose due to certain environmentally placed naturally occurring radioactive materials using a procedural adaptation of RESRAD code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauvais, Z S; Thompson, K H; Kearfott, K J

    2009-07-01

    Due to a recent upward trend in the price of uranium and subsequent increased interest in uranium mining, accurate modeling of baseline dose from environmental sources of radioactivity is of increasing interest. Residual radioactivity model and code (RESRAD) is a program used to model environmental movement and calculate the dose due to the inhalation, ingestion, and exposure to radioactive materials following a placement. This paper presents a novel use of RESRAD for the calculation of dose from non-enhanced, or ancient, naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM). In order to use RESRAD to calculate the total effective dose (TED) due to ancient NORM, a procedural adaptation was developed to negate the effects of time progressive distribution of radioactive materials. A dose due to United States' average concentrations of uranium, actinium, and thorium series radionuclides was then calculated. For adults exposed in a residential setting and assumed to eat significant amounts of food grown in NORM concentrated areas, the annual dose due to national average NORM concentrations was 0.935 mSv y(-1). A set of environmental dose factors were calculated for simple estimation of dose from uranium, thorium, and actinium series radionuclides for various age groups and exposure scenarios as a function of elemental uranium and thorium activity concentrations in groundwater and soil. The values of these factors for uranium were lowest for an adult exposed in an industrial setting: 0.00476 microSv kg Bq(-1) y(-1) for soil and 0.00596 microSv m(3) Bq(-1) y(-1) for water (assuming a 1:1 234U:238U activity ratio in water). The uranium factors were highest for infants exposed in a residential setting and assumed to ingest food grown onsite: 34.8 microSv kg Bq(-1) y(-1) in soil and 13.0 microSv m(3) Bq(-1) y(-1) in water.

  14. Absorbed dose due to radioiodine therapy by organs of patients with hyperthyroidism; Dose absorvida em orgaos de pacientes com hipertiroidismo devido a radioiodoterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, F.F.; Khoury, H.J.; Bertelli Neto, L. [Pernambuco Univ., Recife, PE (Brazil); Laboratorios CERPE, Recife, PE (Brazil); Bertelli Neto, L. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    1999-07-01

    The dose absorbed by organs of patients with hyperthyroidism treated with {sup 131} I was estimated by using the MIRDOSE computer program and data from ICRP-53. The calculation were performed using effective half-life and uptake average values, which were determined for 17 patients treated with 370 MBq and 555MBq of {sup 131} I. The results shown that the dose in the thyroid, for a 370 MBq administrated activity, was of 99 Gy and 49.5 Gy for 60 g and 80 g thyroid respectively. The average dose estimated in other organs were relatively low, presenting values lower than 0.1 Gy in the kidneys, bone marrow and ovaries and 0.19 Gy in the stomach.

  15. Calculation of dose equivalents in organs due to photoneutrons from clinical accelerators; Calculo de dose equivalente em orgaos devido a fotoneutrons provenientes de aceleradores clinicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Robson C. de; Silva, Ademir X. da; Crispim, Verginia R. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia. Programa de Engenharia Nuclear]. E-mail: rcastro@con.ufrj.br; Facure, Alessandro; Falcao, Rossana C. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: afsoares@cnen.gov.br; Lima, Marco A.F. [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Biologia Geral. Lab. de Radiobiologia e Radiometria]. E-mail: egbakel@vm.uff.br

    2005-07-01

    Radiotherapy with photon and electron beams still represents the most technique to control and treat tumour diseases. To increase the treatment efficiency of this technique is linked to the increase of beam energy, resulting in fast neutrons in the radiotherapic beams that contribute with an undesired dose to the patient. In this work has been calculated, using the MCNP4B computer code radiation of transport and an mathematical anthropomorphic phantom, the equivalent doses in organs originated from generated photoneutrons from heads of linear accelerators of medical use, that operates in the 15 MV, 18 MV, 20 MV and 25 MV. The calculated values for the equivalent doses in organs established by the 74 publication of ICRP has show variations between 0.11 mSv.n Gy{sup -1} and 7.03 mSv.n Gy{sup -1}, for the accelerator that uses 18 MV therapic beams, showing good agreement with existing values in the literature. (author)

  16. Influences of parameter uncertainties within the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model: regional tissue doses for 239PuO2 and 238UO2/238U3O8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farfán, Eduardo B; Huston, Thomas E; Bolch, W Emmett; Vernetson, William G; Bolch, Wesley E

    2003-04-01

    This paper extends an examination of the influence of parameter uncertainties on regional doses to respiratory tract tissues for short-ranged alpha particles using the ICRP-66 respiratory tract model. Previous papers examined uncertainties in the deposition and clearance aspects of the model. The critical parameters examined in this study included target tissue depths, thicknesses, and masses, particularly within the thoracic or lung regions of the respiratory tract. Probability density functions were assigned for the parameters based on published data. The probabilistic computer code LUDUC (Lung Dose Uncertainty Code) was used to assess regional and total lung doses from inhaled aerosols of 239PuO2 and 238UO2/238U3O8. Dose uncertainty was noted to depend on the particle aerodynamic diameter. Additionally, dose distributions were found to follow a lognormal distribution pattern. For 239PuO2 and 238UO2/238U3O8, this study showed that the uncertainty in lung dose increases by factors of approximately 50 and approximately 70 for plutonium and uranium oxides, respectively, over the particle size range from 0.1 to 20 microm. For typical exposure scenarios involving both radionuclides, the ratio of the 95% dose fractile to the 5% dose fractile ranged from approximately 8-10 (corresponding to a geometric standard deviation, or GSD, of about 1.7-2) for particle diameters of 0.1 to 1 microm. This ratio increased to about 370 for plutonium oxide (GSD approximately 4.5) and to about 600 for uranium oxide (GSD approximately 5) as the particle diameter approached 20 microm. However, thoracic tissue doses were quite low at larger particle sizes because most of the deposition occurred in the extrathoracic airways. For 239PuO2, median doses from LUDUC were found be in general agreement with those for Reference Man (via deterministic LUDEP 2.0 calculations) in the particle range of 0.1 to 5 microm. However, median doses to the basal cell nuclei of the bronchial airways (BB

  17. Dose Estimation by ESR on Tooth Enamel from Two Workers Exposed to Radiation due to the JCO accident

    OpenAIRE

    Kunio, SHIRAISHI; MIDORI, IWASAKI; Chyuzo, Miyazawa; HIDENORI, YONEHARA; Masaki, MATSUMOTO; Ohu University, School of Dentistry; Radon Research Group, National Institute of Radiological Sciences; Environmental Radiation Protection System Research Group, National Institute of Radiological Sciences

    2002-01-01

    ESR dosimetry is useful to estimate the external dose for the general population as well as for occupational workers in a nuclear emergency. Three teeth were extracted from two exposed workers (A and B) related to the JCO criticality accident. Tooth enamel was carefully separated from other tooth parts and subjected to ESR dosimetry. Doses equivalent to the γ-ray dose of ^Co were estimated as follows: for worker A, the buccal and lingual sides of the eighth tooth in the upper right side, 11.8...

  18. Integrating a MRI scanner with a 6 MV radiotherapy accelerator: dose increase at tissue-air interfaces in a lateral magnetic field due to returning electrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raaijmakers, A J E; Raaymakers, B W; Lagendijk, J J W [Department of Radiotherapy, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2005-04-07

    In the framework of the development of the integration of a MRI-scanner with a linear accelerator, the influence of a lateral, magnetic field on the dose distribution has to be determined. Dose increase is expected at tissue-air boundaries, due to the electron return effect (ERE): electrons entering air will describe a circular path and return into the phantom causing extra dose deposition. Using IMRT with many beam directions, this exit dose will not constitute a problem. Dose levels behind air cavities will decrease because of the absence of electrons crossing the cavity. The ERE has been demonstrated both by simulation and experiment. Monte Carlo simulations are performed with GEANT4, irradiating a water-air-water phantom in a lateral magnetic field. Also an air tube in water has been simulated, resulting in slightly twisted regions of dose increase and decrease. Experimental demonstration is achieved by film measurement in a perspex-air-perspex phantom in an electromagnet. Although the ERE causes dose increase before air cavities, relatively flat dose profiles can be obtained for the investigated cases using opposite beam configurations. More research will be necessary whether this holds for more realistic geometries with the use of IMRT and whether the ERE can be turned to our advantage when treating small tumour sites at air cavities.

  19. Comparison between beta radiation dose distribution due to LDR and HDR ocular brachytherapy applicators using GATE Monte Carlo platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Laoues; Rachid, Khelifi; Ahmed, Sidi Moussa

    2016-08-01

    Eye applicators with 90Sr/90Y and 106Ru/106Rh beta-ray sources are generally used in brachytherapy for the treatment of eye diseases as uveal melanoma. Whenever, radiation is used in treatment, dosimetry is essential. However, knowledge of the exact dose distribution is a critical decision-making to the outcome of the treatment. The Monte Carlo technique provides a powerful tool for calculation of the dose and dose distributions which helps to predict and determine the doses from different shapes of various types of eye applicators more accurately. The aim of this work consisted in using the Monte Carlo GATE platform to calculate the 3D dose distribution on a mathematical model of the human eye according to international recommendations. Mathematical models were developed for four ophthalmic applicators, two HDR 90Sr applicators SIA.20 and SIA.6, and two LDR 106Ru applicators, a concave CCB model and a flat CCB model. In present work, considering a heterogeneous eye phantom and the chosen tumor, obtained results with the use of GATE for mean doses distributions in a phantom and according to international recommendations show a discrepancy with respect to those specified by the manufacturers. The QC of dosimetric parameters shows that contrarily to the other applicators, the SIA.20 applicator is consistent with recommendations. The GATE platform show that the SIA.20 applicator present better results, namely the dose delivered to critical structures were lower compared to those obtained for the other applicators, and the SIA.6 applicator, simulated with MCNPX generates higher lens doses than those generated by GATE.

  20. Required accuracy and dose thresholds in individual monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, P.; Griffith, R.V.

    1994-01-01

    this uncertainty factor, a value of 21% can be evaluated for the allowable maximum overall standard deviation for dose measurements at dose levels near the annual dose limits increasing to 45% for dose levels at the lower end of the dose range required to be monitored. A method is described for evaluating...... the overall standard deviation of the dosimetry system by combining random and systematic uncertainties in quadrature, and procedures are also given for determining each individual uncertainty connected to the dose measurement. In particular, attention is paid to the evaluation of the combined uncertainty due...... to energy and angular dependencies of the dosemeter. In type testing of personal dosimetry systems, the estimated overall standard deviation of the dosimetry system is the main parameter to be tested. An important characteristic of a personal dosimetry system is its capability of measuring low doses...

  1. Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D. [Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23298 (United States); Sampson, Andrew J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23298 (United States); Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun [Department of Radiation Physics, Faculty of Health Sciences, Linkoeping University, SE 581 85 (Sweden); Williamson, Jeffrey [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23298 (United States); Malusek, Alexandr, E-mail: malusek@ujf.cas.cz [Department of Radiation Physics, Faculty of Health Sciences, Linkoeping University, SE 581 85 (Sweden); Department of Radiation Dosimetry, Nuclear Physics Institute AS CR v.v.i., Na Truhlarce 39/64, 180 86 Prague (Czech Republic)

    2012-01-15

    Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed.

  2. Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

    2012-01-01

    Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed.

  3. A method for determining an indicator of effective dose calculation due to inhalation of Radon and its progeny from in vivo measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Estrada, J

    1994-01-01

    Direct measurement of the absolved dose to lung tissue from inhalation of radon and its progeny is not possible and must be calculated using dosimetric models, taking into consideration the several parameters upon which the dose calculation depends. To asses the dose due to inhalation of radon and its progeny, it is necessary to estimate the cumulative exposure. Historically, this has been done using WLM values estimated with measurements of radon concentration in air. The radon concentration in air varies significantly, however, in space with time, and the exposed individual is also constantly moving around. This makes it almost impossible to obtain a precise estimate of an individual's inhalation exposure. This work describes a pilot study to calculate lung dose from the deposition of radon progeny, via estimates of cumulative exposure derived from in vivo measurements of sup 2 sup 1 sup 0 Pb, in subjects exposed to above-average radon and its progeny concentrations in their home environments. The measureme...

  4. Oligospermia due to partial maturation arrest responds to low dose estrogen—testosterone combination therapy resulting in live—birth:a case report

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SahP

    2002-01-01

    A man having severe oligospermia,due to partial maturation arrest at spermatid stage,was given low dose estrogen-testosterone conbination therapy for three months.His sperm count increased enormously,following which his wife conceived and delivered a healthy baby at term.

  5. Dose estimation by ESR on tooth enamel from two workers exposed to radiation due to the JCO accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiraishi, Kunio; Iwasaki, Midori; Miyazawa, Chyuzo; Yonehara, Hidenori; Matsumoto, Masaki

    2002-09-01

    ESR dosimetry is useful to estimate the external dose for the general population as well as for occupational workers in a nuclear emergency. Three teeth were extracted from two exposed workers (A and B) related to the JCO criticality accident. Tooth enamel was carefully separated from other tooth parts and subjected to ESR dosimetry. Doses equivalent to the gamma-ray dose of 60Co were estimated as follows: for worker A, the buccal and lingual sides of the eighth tooth in the upper right side, 11.8 +/- 3.6 and 12.0 +/- 3.6 Gy, respectively; for worker B, the buccal and lingual sides of the fourth tooth in the upper right side and the fifth tooth in the upper left side, 11.3 +/- 3.4 and 10.8 +/- 3.3 Gy, 11.7 +/- 3.5 and 11.4 +/- 3.4 Gy, respectively. The estimated doses were found to be similar and not dependent on the tooth positions, whether the buccal or lingual sides in each tooth.

  6. Dose perturbation due to the presence of a prostatic urethral stent in patients receiving pelvic radiotherapy: an in vitro study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gez, E; Cederbaum, M; Yachia, D; Bar-Deroma, R; Kuten, A

    1997-01-01

    Temporary metallic intraprostatic stent is a new alternative treatment for patients with urinary obstructive syndrome caused by prostate cancer. Definitive radiotherapy is a treatment of choice for localized prostate cancer. This study evaluates in vitro the effect of a urethral intraprostatic metallic stent on the dose absorbed by the surrounding tissue. The study was designed to mimic the conditions under which the prostatic stent is placed in the body during pelvic irradiation. A urethral stent composed of a 50% nickel-50% titanium alloy (Uracoil-InStent) was imbedded in material mimicking normal tissue (bolus) at a simulated body depth of 10 cm. The distribution of the absorbed dose of irradiation was determined by film dosimetry using Kodak X-Omat V film. Irradiation was done in a single field at the isocenter of a 6 MV linear accelerator with a field size of 7 x 7 cm. The degree of film blackening was in direct proportion to the absorbed dose. The measurements showed an increase in dose of up to 20% immediately before the stent and a decrease of up to 18% immediately after the stent. These changes occurred within a range of 1-3 mm from both sides of the stent. In practice, irradiation in prostate cancer is given by two pairs of opposed co-axial fields; a total of four fields (Box Technique). The dose perturbations are partly cancelled in a pair of opposed beams resulting in a net variation of +/- 4%; therefore, the presence of the intraprostatic stent should not influence radiotherapy planning for prostate cancer.

  7. Estimation of the collective ionizing dose in the Portuguese population for the years 2011 and 2012, due to nuclear medicine exams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, F; Teles, P; Nogueira, A; Barreto, A; Santos, A I; Carvalho, A; Martins, B; Oliveira, C; Gaspar, C; Barros, C; Neves, D; Costa, D; Rodrigues, E; Godinho, F; Alves, F; Cardoso, G; Cantinho, G; Conde, I; Vale, J; Santos, J; Isidoro, J; Pereira, J; Salgado, L; Rézio, M; Vieira, M; Simãozinho, P; Almeida, P; Castro, R; Parafita, R; Pintão, S; Lúcio, T; Reis, T; Vaz, P

    2015-01-01

    In 2009-2010 a Portuguese consortium was created to implement the methodologies proposed by the Dose Datamed II (DDM2) project, aiming to collect data from diagnostic X-ray and nuclear medicine (NM) procedures, in order to determine the most frequently prescribed exams and the associated ionizing radiation doses for the Portuguese population. The current study is the continuation of this work, although it focuses only on NM exams for the years 2011 and 2012. The annual frequency of each of the 28 selected NM exams and the average administered activity per procedure was obtained by means of a nationwide survey sent to the 35 NM centres in Portugal. The results show a reduction of the number of cardiac exams performed in the last two years compared with 2010, leading to a reduction of the annual average effective dose of Portuguese population due to NM exams from 0.08 mSv ± 0.017 mSv/caput to 0.059 ± 0.011 mSv/caput in 2011 and 0.054 ± 0.011 mSv/caput in 2012. Portuguese total annual average collective effective dose due to medical procedures was estimated to be 625.6 ± 110.9 manSv in 2011 and 565.1 ± 117.3 manSv in 2012, a reduction in comparison with 2010 (840.3 ± 183.8 manSv). The most frequent exams and the ones that contributed the most for total population dose were the cardiac and bone exams, although a decrease observed in 2011 and in 2012 was verified. The authors intend to perform this study periodically to identify trends in the annual Portuguese average effective dose and to help to raise awareness about the potential dose optimization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

  8. Dose response relationship of disturbed migration of Purkinje cells in the cerebellum due to X-irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darmanto, W.; Inouye, Minoru; Hayasaka, Shizu; Takagishi, Yoshiko; Aolad, H.; Murata, Yoshiharu [Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1998-10-01

    Pregnant rats were exposed to 2.0, 2.25 or 2.5 Gy X-irradiation on gestation day 21. Pups were sacrificed 12 hr after exposure, and on postnatal day 5 (P5), P7 and P9. Their cerebella were observed immunohistochemically using anti-inositol 1,4,5 triphosphate (IP3) receptor antibody to identify Purkinje cells. These cells were disturbed to migrate and remained in the internal granular layer and white matter of the cerebellum. They had short dendrites, and some showed an abnormal direction of dendrites in rats exposed to 2.25 or 2.5 Gy. Alignment of Purkinje cells was also disturbed when examined either on P5, P7 or P9 especially by doses of 2.25 and 2.5 Gy. There was a relationship between X-ray doses and the number of cells piling up in the Purkinje cell layer of the cerebellum. The dose-response relationship with the number of ectopic Purkinje cells was noted in the anterior lobes of the cerebellum. (author)

  9. Physical dose distribution due to multi-sliced kV X-ray beam in labeled tissue-like media: An experimental approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghasemi, M., E-mail: mghasemi@nrcam.or [Agricultural Medical and Industrial Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 31485-498, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Kakuee, O.R.; Fathollahi, V. [Van de Graaff Laboratory, Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shahvar, A.; Mohati, M.; Ghafoori, M. [Agricultural Medical and Industrial Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 31485-498, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-02-15

    Radiotherapy remains a major modality of cancer therapy. Thanks to high flux and high brilliance of synchrotron-generated X-ray, laboratory research with planar microscopically thin X-ray beam promise exciting new opportunities for treatment of cancer. High tolerance of normal tissues at doses up to several hundred Gy in a single dose fraction and preferential damage of tumors at very high doses have been uniquely observed in animal models exposed to microbeams. The fact that beams as thick as 0.68 mm could retain a part of these effects, opens the possibility that the required beam can be produced by high power X-ray tubes besides a dedicated synchrotron. Fortunately, dose distribution due to kilovolt X-rays could be enhanced by the introduction of high-Z contrast agents to tissue-like media. In this work, dose deposition in a phantom-partially loaded with Au and I as contrast agents-irradiated by multi-sliced kV X-ray beam was experimentally investigated in the peak and valley regions both on the surface and in the depth of phantom. The results of experimental dosimetry using Gaf-chromic films were compared with corresponding Monte-Carlo simulation. Relative reduction in the deposited dose in the peak regions downstream the area containing contrast agents in comparison with the adjacent areas was experimentally observed.

  10. Physical dose distribution due to multi-sliced kV X-ray beam in labeled tissue-like media: an experimental approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghasemi, M; Kakuee, O R; Fathollahi, V; Shahvar, A; Mohati, M; Ghafoori, M

    2011-02-01

    Radiotherapy remains a major modality of cancer therapy. Thanks to high flux and high brilliance of synchrotron-generated X-ray, laboratory research with planar microscopically thin X-ray beam promise exciting new opportunities for treatment of cancer. High tolerance of normal tissues at doses up to several hundred Gy in a single dose fraction and preferential damage of tumors at very high doses have been uniquely observed in animal models exposed to microbeams. The fact that beams as thick as 0.68 mm could retain a part of these effects, opens the possibility that the required beam can be produced by high power X-ray tubes besides a dedicated synchrotron. Fortunately, dose distribution due to kilovolt X-rays could be enhanced by the introduction of high-Z contrast agents to tissue-like media. In this work, dose deposition in a phantom--partially loaded with Au and I as contrast agents--irradiated by multi-sliced kV X-ray beam was experimentally investigated in the peak and valley regions both on the surface and in the depth of phantom. The results of experimental dosimetry using Gaf-chromic films were compared with corresponding Monte-Carlo simulation. Relative reduction in the deposited dose in the peak regions downstream the area containing contrast agents in comparison with the adjacent areas was experimentally observed.

  11. Calculation of the absorbed dose distribution due to irregularly shaped photon beams using pencil beam kernels derived from basic beam data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storchi, Pascal; Woudstra, Evert

    1996-04-01

    In radiotherapy, accurately calculated dose distributions of irregularly shaped photon beams are needed. In this paper, an algorithm is presented which enables the calculation of dose distributions due to irregular fields using pencil beam kernels derived from simple basic beam data usually measured on treatment units, i.e. central axis depth - dose curves and profiles. The only extra data that are needed, and are not currently measured, is the phantom scatter factor curve at the reference depth. The algorithm has been developed as an extension to a previously developed algorithm for rectangular fields which is based on the Milan - Bentley storage model. In the case of an irregular field, the depth dose and the boundary function are computed by convolution of a field intensity function with pencil beam kernels. The depth dose is computed by using a `scatter' kernel, which is derived from the stored depth - dose curves and from the phantom scatter factor curve. The boundary function is computed by using a `boundary' kernel, which is derived from the boundary profile of a number of large square fields. Because of the simplicity of the data used and the underlying concepts, which for instance do not separate the head scatter from the primary beam, this algorithm presents some shortcomings. On the other hand, this simplicity is also of great advantage and the inaccuracy is acceptable for most clinical situations.

  12. SU-E-T-235: Monte Carlo Analysis of the Dose Enhancement in the Scalp of Patients Due to Titanium Plate Backscatter During Post-Operative Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardin, M; Elson, H; Lamba, M [University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (United States); Wolf, E [Precision Radiotherapy, West Chester, OH (United States); Warnick, R [UC Health Physicians, West Chester, OH (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To quantify the clinically observed dose enhancement adjacent to cranial titanium fixation plates during post-operative radiotherapy. Methods: Irradiation of a titanium burr hole cover was simulated using Monte Carlo code MCNPX for a 6 MV photon spectrum to investigate backscatter dose enhancement due to increased production of secondary electrons within the titanium plate. The simulated plate was placed 3 mm deep in a water phantom, and dose deposition was tallied for 0.2 mm thick cells adjacent to the entrance and exit sides of the plate. These results were compared to a simulation excluding the presence of the titanium to calculate relative dose enhancement on the entrance and exit sides of the plate. To verify simulated results, two titanium burr hole covers (Synthes, Inc. and Biomet, Inc.) were irradiated with 6 MV photons in a solid water phantom containing GafChromic MD-55 film. The phantom was irradiated on a Varian 21EX linear accelerator at multiple gantry angles (0–180 degrees) to analyze the angular dependence of the backscattered radiation. Relative dose enhancement was quantified using computer software. Results: Monte Carlo simulations indicate a relative difference of 26.4% and 7.1% on the entrance and exit sides of the plate respectively. Film dosimetry results using a similar geometry indicate a relative difference of 13% and -10% on the entrance and exit sides of the plate respectively. Relative dose enhancement on the entrance side of the plate decreased with increasing gantry angle from 0 to 180 degrees. Conclusion: Film and simulation results demonstrate an increase in dose to structures immediately adjacent to cranial titanium fixation plates. Increased beam obliquity has shown to alleviate dose enhancement to some extent. These results are consistent with clinically observed effects.

  13. Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Thyroid Cancer Risk among Persons in Belarus Exposed as Children or Adolescents Due to the Chernobyl Accident.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark P Little

    Full Text Available The excess incidence of thyroid cancer in Ukraine and Belarus observed a few years after the Chernobyl accident is considered to be largely the result of 131I released from the reactor. Although the Belarus thyroid cancer prevalence data has been previously analyzed, no account was taken of dose measurement error.We examined dose-response patterns in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 11,732 persons aged under 18 at the time of the accident, diagnosed during 1996-2004, who had direct thyroid 131I activity measurement, and were resident in the most radio-actively contaminated regions of Belarus. Three methods of dose-error correction (regression calibration, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo were applied.There was a statistically significant (p0.2.In summary, the relatively small contribution of unshared classical dose error in the current study results in comparatively modest effects on the regression parameters.

  14. MODELS SELECTED FOR CALCULATION OF DOSES, HEALTH EFFECTS AND ECONOMIC COSTS DUE TO ACCIDENTAL RADIONUCLIDE RELEASES FROM NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strenge, D L; Baker, D A; Droppo, J G; McPherson, R B; Napier, B A; Nieves, L A; Soldat, J K

    1980-05-01

    Models are described for use in site-specific environmental consequence analysis of nuclear reactor accidents of Classes 3 through 9. The models presented relate radioactivity released to resulting doses, health effects, and costs of remedial actions. Specific models are presented for the major exposure pathways of airborne releases, waterborne releases and direct irradiation from activity within the facility buildings, such as the containment. Time-dependent atmospheric dispersion parameters, crop production parameters and other variable parameters are used in the models. The environmental effects are analyzed for several accident start times during the year.

  15. Natural radioactivity in groundwater and estimates of committed effective dose due to water ingestion in the state of Chihuahua (Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalba, L; Montero-Cabrera, M E; Manjón-Collado, G; Colmenero-Sujo, L; Rentería-Villalobos, M; Cano-Jiménez, A; Rodríguez-Pineda, A; Dávila-Rangel, I; Quirino-Torres, L; Herrera-Peraza, E F

    2006-01-01

    The activity concentration of 222Rn, 226Ra and total uranium in groundwater samples collected from wells distributed throughout the state of Chihuahua has been measured. The values obtained of total uranium activity concentration in groundwater throughout the state run from Chihuahua City. Committed effective dose estimates for reference individuals were performed, with results as high as 134 microSv for infants in Aldama city. In Aldama and Chihuahua cities the average and many individual wells showed activity concentration values of uranium exceeding the Mexican norm of drinking water quality.

  16. Analysis of uncertainties in assessments of dose to the public: Probabilistic Crom; Analisis de incertidumbres en las evaluaciones de la dosis al publico: Crom Probabilista

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mora, J. C.; Robles, B.; Cortes, D.; Rodriguez, J.

    2011-07-01

    The deterministic version of CROM is useful for conservative assessments, but can be used to obtain estimates using more realistic values. However, a more realistic estimate as that entails the need to assess the uncertainties associated with the outcome. To move in this direction has developed a new version of CROM has the added ability to perform the calculations of these uncertainties.

  17. RADIATION DOSE DUE TO RADON AND HEAVY METAL ANALYSIS IN DRINKING WATER SAMPLES OF JAMMU DISTRICT, JAMMU & KASHMIR, INDIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A; Kaur, M; Sharma, S; Mehra, R; Sharma, D K; Mishra, R

    2016-10-01

    In the present investigation, radon concentration and heavy metal analysis were carried out in drinking water samples in Jammu district, Jammu & Kashmir, India. The radon concentration was measured by using RAD-7, portable alpha particle detector. The values of radon concentration in drinking water samples were also compared within the safe limit recommended by different health agencies. The total annual effective dose ranged from 53.04 to 197.29 µSv y(-1) The annual effective dose from few locations from the studied area was found to be greater than the safe limit (100 µSv y(-1)) suggested by World Health Organisation (WHO) and EU Council. Heavy metal concentration was determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometer. A total of eight elements were analysed, viz. arsenic, mercury, zinc, iron, copper, chromium, manganese and cadmium. Heavy metals are considered to be the major pollutants of water sources. The results were compared with the limits of WHO, EU and Indian organisations. The trace metal analysis is not on the exceeding side of the permissible limit in all the samples. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Radioactivity of cigarettes and the importance of (210)Po and thorium isotopes for radiation dose assessment due to smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubalek, Davor; Serša, Gregor; Štrok, Marko; Benedik, Ljudmila; Jeran, Zvonka

    2016-05-01

    Tobacco and tobacco smoke are very complex mixtures. In addition to various chemical and organic compounds they also contain natural radioactive elements (radionuclides). In this work, the natural radionuclide activity concentrations ((234)U, (238)U, (228)Th, (230)Th, (232)Th, (226)Ra, (210)Pb and (210)Po) of nine different cigarette samples available on the Slovenian market are reported. In addition to (210)Po, the transfer of thorium isotopes from a cigarette to a smoker's body and lungs have been determined for the first time. Cigarette smoke and exhaled air from smokers' lungs were collected from volunteer smokers (C-4 brand) to determinate what quantity of (210)Po and thorium isotopes is transferred from the tobacco to the smoker's lungs. Cigarette ash and smoked filters were also collected and analysed. Among the determined isotopes, (210)Pb and (210)Po showed the highest activity concentrations. During the smoking of one cigarette approximately 22% of (210)Po (and presumably its predecessor (210)Pb), 0.6% of (228)Th, 24% of (230)Th, and 31% of (232)Th are transferred from the cigarette and retained in the smoker's body. The estimated annual effective dose for smokers is 61 μSv/year from (210)Po; 9 μSv/year from (210)Pb; 6 μSv/year from (228)Th; 47 μSv/year from (230)Th, and 37 μSv/year from (232)Th. These results show the importance of thorium isotopes in contributing to the annual effective dose for smoking. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. High dose androgen therapy in male pseudohermaphroditism due to 5 alpha-reductase deficiency and disorders of the androgen receptor.

    OpenAIRE

    Price, P; Wass, J. A.; Griffin, J E; Leshin, M; Savage, M O; Large, D. M.; Bu'Lock, D E; Anderson, D. C.; Wilson, J. D.; Besser, G M

    1984-01-01

    We describe the clinical and biochemical features of six men with male pseudohermaphroditism due to androgen resistance. Each of the subjects had male-gender behavior but incomplete virilization. The underlying defects in androgen metabolism were defined by studies of the 5 alpha-reductase enzyme and the androgen receptor in fibroblasts cultured from biopsies of genital skin. Four of the six have 5 alpha-reductase deficiency, and two have defects of the androgen receptor (the Reifenstein synd...

  20. 210Po and 210Pb Activity Concentrations in Cigarettes Produced in Vietnam and Their Estimated Dose Contribution Due to Smoking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Thuy-Ngan N.; Le, Cong-Hao; Chau, Van-Tao

    Smoking cigarettes contributes significantly to the increase of radiation in human body because 210Po and 210Pb exist relatively high in tobacco leaves. Therefore, these two radioisotopes in eighteen of the most frequently sold cigarette brands produced in Vietnam were examined in this study. 210Po was determined by alpha spectroscopy using a passivated implanted planar silicon (PIPS) detector after a procedure including radiochemical separation and spontaneous deposition of polonium on a copper disc (the deposition efficiency of 210Po on a copper disc was approximately 94%). Sequentially, 210Pb was determined through the ingrowth of 210Po after storing the sample solutions for approximately six months. The activity concentrations of 210Po in cigarettes ranged from 13.8 to 82.6 mBq/cigarette (the mean value was 26.4 mBq/cigarette) and the activity concentrations of 210Pb in cigarettes ranged from 13.9 to 78.8 mBq/cigarette (the mean value was 25.8 mBq/cigarette). The annual committed effective dose for smokers who smoke one pack per day was also estimated to be 295.4 µSv/year (223.0 µSv/year and 72.4 µSv/year from 210Po and 210Pb, respectively). These indicated that smoking increased the risk of developing lung cancer was approximately 60 times greater for smokers than for non-smokers.

  1. Uncertainty in deterministic groundwater transport models due to the assumption of macrodispersive mixing: evidence from the Cape Cod (Massachusetts, U.S.A.) and Borden (Ontario, Canada) tracer tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, Charles R.

    1996-06-01

    Deterministic transport models based on the advection-dispersion equation are widely used to simulate groundwater contaminant transport. Only the largest heterogeneities and velocity field variations are explicitly modeled by the advection part of such models because subsurface explorations allow limited understanding of the distribution of heterogeneity and velocities. Smaller heterogeneities and associated velocity field variations are not incorporated in the modeled velocity field, but their overall mixing effect is represented implicitly as macrodispersion. As a result, such models do not replicate the complex small-scale variation of actual concentration distributions, but instead simulate a smoother concentration distribution. This discrepancy causes significant uncertainty in modeled concentrations. In this paper, such uncertainty is quantified for the detailed concentration distribution data sets of the Cape Cod and Borden natural-gradient tracer tests. Models of these tests could be made with relatively little uncertainty about the source distribution, large-scale flow field, and apparent macrodispersitivities. As earlier moment analyses reveal, the ensemble-average bromide migration in both tests was approximately consistent with classical advection-dispersion theory. Therefore, the reported uncertainties are primarily due to the use of macrodispersivity to represent mixing caused by small-scale velocity field variations. Analytic three-dimensional transport models were used to simulate the migration of bromide, a non-reactive tracer. The distribution of log(ca/cm), where ca is actual concentration and cm is modeled concentration at the same point, had a standard deviation of ∼0.70 for both tests. The distribution of vertically-averaged concentration predictions, log(Σca/Σcm), where the summation is over each multi-level sampler, had a standard deviation of ∼0.45 for both tests. Comparing the peak actual concentration to the peak modeled

  2. Potential errors in relative dose measurements in kilovoltage photon beams due to polarity effects in plane-parallel ionisation chambers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdell, S; Tyler, M; McNamara, J; Sloan, K; Ceylan, A; Rinks, A

    2016-11-15

    Plane-parallel ionisation chambers are regularly used to conduct relative dosimetry measurements for therapeutic kilovoltage beams during commissioning and routine quality assurance. This paper presents the first quantification of the polarity effect in kilovoltage photon beams for two types of commercially available plane-parallel ionisation chambers used for such measurements. Measurements were performed at various depths along the central axis in a solid water phantom and for different field sizes at 2 cm depth to determine the polarity effect for PTW Advanced Markus and Roos ionisation chambers (PTW-Freiburg, Germany). Data was acquired for kilovoltage beams between 100 kVp (half-value layer (HVL)  =  2.88 mm Al) and 250 kVp (HVL  =  2.12 mm Cu) and field sizes of 3-15 cm diameter for 30 cm focus-source distance (FSD) and 4  ×  4 cm(2)-20  ×  20 cm(2) for 50 cm FSD. Substantial polarity effects, up to 9.6%, were observed for the Advanced Markus chamber compared to a maximum 0.5% for the Roos chamber. The magnitude of the polarity effect was observed to increase with field size and beam energy but was consistent with depth. The polarity effect is directly influenced by chamber design, with potentially large polarity effects for some plane-parallel ionisation chambers. Depending on the specific chamber used, polarity corrections may be required for output factor measurements of kilovoltage photon beams. Failure to account for polarity effects could lead to an incorrect dose being delivered to the patient.

  3. Potential errors in relative dose measurements in kilovoltage photon beams due to polarity effects in plane-parallel ionisation chambers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdell, S.; Tyler, M.; McNamara, J.; Sloan, K.; Ceylan, A.; Rinks, A.

    2016-12-01

    Plane-parallel ionisation chambers are regularly used to conduct relative dosimetry measurements for therapeutic kilovoltage beams during commissioning and routine quality assurance. This paper presents the first quantification of the polarity effect in kilovoltage photon beams for two types of commercially available plane-parallel ionisation chambers used for such measurements. Measurements were performed at various depths along the central axis in a solid water phantom and for different field sizes at 2 cm depth to determine the polarity effect for PTW Advanced Markus and Roos ionisation chambers (PTW-Freiburg, Germany). Data was acquired for kilovoltage beams between 100 kVp (half-value layer (HVL)  =  2.88 mm Al) and 250 kVp (HVL  =  2.12 mm Cu) and field sizes of 3-15 cm diameter for 30 cm focus-source distance (FSD) and 4  ×  4 cm2-20  ×  20 cm2 for 50 cm FSD. Substantial polarity effects, up to 9.6%, were observed for the Advanced Markus chamber compared to a maximum 0.5% for the Roos chamber. The magnitude of the polarity effect was observed to increase with field size and beam energy but was consistent with depth. The polarity effect is directly influenced by chamber design, with potentially large polarity effects for some plane-parallel ionisation chambers. Depending on the specific chamber used, polarity corrections may be required for output factor measurements of kilovoltage photon beams. Failure to account for polarity effects could lead to an incorrect dose being delivered to the patient.

  4. Indoor inhalation dose estimates due to radon and thoron in some areas of South-Western Punjab, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Surinder; Bajwa, Bikramjit Singh; Singh, Bhupinder; Sabharwal, Arvind D; Eappen, K P

    2012-08-01

    LR-115 (type II)-based radon-thoron discriminating twin-chamber dosemeters have been used for estimating radon ((222)Rn) and thoron ((220)Rn) concentrations in dwellings of south-western Punjab, India. The present study region has shown pronounced cases of cancer incidents in the public [Thakur, Rao, Rajwanshi, Parwana and Kumar (Epidemiological study of high cancer among rural agricultural community of Punjab in Northern India. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2008; 5(5):399-407) and Kumar et al. (Risk assessment for natural uranium in subsurface water of Punjab state, India. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 2011;17:381-93)]. Radon being a carcinogen has been monitored in some dwellings selected randomly in the study area. Results show that the values of radon ((222)Rn)  varied from 21 to 79 Bq m(-3), with a geometric mean of 45 Bq m(-3) [geometric standard deviation (GSD 1.39)], and those of thoron ((220)Rn)  from minimum detection level to 58 Bq m(-3) with a geometric mean of 19 Bq m(-3) (GSD 1.88). Bare card data are used for computing the progeny concentration by deriving the equilibrium factor (F) using a root finding method [Mayya, Eappen and Nambi (Methodology for mixed field inhalation dosimetry in monazite areas using a twin-cup dosemeter with three track detectors. Radiat Prot Dosim 1998;77(3):177-84)]. Inhalation doses have been calculated and compared using UNSCEAR equilibrium factors and by using the calculated F-values. The results show satisfactory comparison between the values.

  5. Enhancement in the production of nucleating clusters due to dimethylamine and large uncertainties in the thermochemistry of amine-enhanced nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadykto, Alexey B.; Herb, Jason; Yu, Fangqun; Xu, Yisheng

    2014-08-01

    In the present Letter, the enhancing effect of dimethylamine (DMA) on the production of stable H2SO4-H2O clusters have been studied using the Density Functional Theory (DFT). It has been pointed out that the DMA concentrations of 1-10 ppt are needed in order to achieve a considerable enhancement in production of sulfuric acid-water clusters under typical atmospheric conditions and that the ambient RH plays a significant role at the early stages of the gas-to cluster conversion in the ternary DMA-H2SO4-H2O vapour mixtures. Large uncertainties in the thermochemistry of amine-enhanced nucleation have been pointed out and discussed.

  6. Semi-empirical white dwarf initial-final mass relationships: a thorough analysis of systematic uncertainties due to stellar evolution models

    CERN Document Server

    Salaris, Maurizio; Weiss, Achim; Bertolami, Marcelo Miller

    2008-01-01

    Using the most recent results about white dwarfs in 10 open clusters, we revisit semi-empirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the white dwarf cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

  7. Methods For Calculating Thyroid Doses to The Residents Of Ozersk Due to 131I Releases From The Stacks of The Mayak Production Association

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rovny, Sergey I.; Mokrov, Y.; Stukalov, Pavel M.; Beregich, D. A.; Teplyakov, I. I.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2009-10-23

    The Mayak Production Association (MPA) was established in the late 1940s in accordance with a special Decree of the USSR Government for the production of nuclear weapons. In early years of MPA operation, due to the lack of experience and absence of effective methods of RW management, the enterprise had extensive routine (designed) and non-routine (accidental) releases of gaseous radioactive wastes to the atmosphere. These practices resulted in additional technogenic radiation exposure of residents inhabiting populated areas near the MPA. The primary objective of ongoing studies under JCCRER Project 1.4 is to estimate doses to the residents of Ozersk due to releases of radioactive substances from the stacks of MPA. Preliminary scoping studies have demonstrated that releases of radioactive iodine (131I) from the stacks of the Mayak Radiochemical Plant represented the major contribution to the dose to residents of Ozersk and of other nearby populated areas. The behavior of 131I in the environment and of 131I migration through biological food chains (vegetation-cows-milk-humans) indicated a need for use of special mathematical models to perform the estimation of radiation doses to the population. The goal of this work is to select an appropriate model of the iodine migration in biological food chains and to justify numerical values of the model parameters.

  8. Collective dose estimation in Portuguese population due to medical exams of diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine; Estimativa da dose coletiva na populacao portuguesa devido a exames medicos de radiologia de diagnostico e de medicina nuclear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teles, Pedro; Vaz, Pedro [Instituto Tecnologico e Nuclear, Sacavem (Portugal). Instituto Superior Tecnico; Sousa, M. Carmen de [Instituto Portugues de Oncologia de Coimbra (Portugal); Paulo, Graciano; Santos, Joana [Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saude de Coimbra (Portugal); Pascoal, Ana [Kings College Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Kings Health Partners; Cardoso, Gabriela; Santos, Ana isabel [Hospital Garcia de Orta, Almada (Portugal); Lanca, Isabel [Administracao Regional de Saude, Coimbra (Portugal); Matela, Nuno [Universidade de Lisboa (Portugal). Fac. de Ciencias. Instituto de Biofisica e Engenharia Biomedica; Janeiro, Luis [Escola superior de Saude da Cruz Vermelha Portuguesa, Lisboa (Portugal); Sousa, Patrick [Laboratorio de Instrumentacao e Fisica Experimental de Particulas, Lisboa (Portugal); Carvoeiras, Pedro; Parafita, Rui [Medical Consult, SA, Lisboa (Portugal); Simaozinho, Paula [Administracao Regional de Saude, Faro (Portugal)

    2013-11-01

    In order to assess the exposure of the Portuguese population to ionizing radiation due to medical examinations of diagnostic radiology and nuclear medicine, a working group, consisting of 40 institutions, public and private, was created to evaluation the coletive dose in the Portuguese population in 2010. This work was conducted in collaboration with the Dose Datamed European consortium, which aims to assess the exposure of the European population to ionizing radiation due to 20 diagnostic radiology examinations most frequent in Europe (the 'TOP 20') and nuclear medicine examinations. We obtained an average value of collective dose of Almost-Equal-To 1 mSv/caput, which puts Portugal in the category of countries medium to high exposure to Europe. We hope that this work can be a starting point to bridge the persistent lack of studies in the areas referred to in Portugal, and to enable the characterization periodic exposure of the Portuguese population to ionizing radiation in the context of medical applications.

  9. A methodology to establish the appearance of cancer cases due to radiation dose in compressed breast; Uma metodologia para comprovar o aparecimento de casos de cancer devido a dose de radiacao na mama comprimida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feital, Joao Carlos Da Silva; Delgado, Jose Ubiratan; Peixoto, Jose Guilherme P.; Fonseca, Hugo Geraldo Da, E-mail: jfeital@ird.gov.br, E-mail: delgado@ird.gov.br, E-mail: guilherm@ird.gov.br, E-mail: hfonseca@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-10-01

    It is known that more than 20% of the world's population will contract some type of cancer. In Brazil, with the exception of skin cancer (non melanoma) the breast cancer ranks first among the higher frequency of tumours among women and in general, although the methods of detection are advancing in the year 2010 took place about 13 thousand deaths in about 50,000 cases, probably due to late detection of these neoplasm. New cases of breast cancer in a given population can be proven from absorbed dose quantity, calculated for the compressed breast, due to the risk by means of exposure to x rays in this radiodiagnostic practices. Methodology: Exposures were held in an ionization chamber and the other quantities required were obtained to the screen-film equipment of mammography. Results: Also experimental results were of compressed breast an equivalent dose of ( 1.82 mSv {+-} 0.2%) or (3.64 mSv {+-} 0.2%) for both projections, i.e. medium lateral oblique and cranio caudal. The experimental value obtained here is consistent with the calculated results and published in the literature for analog and CR equipment. Conclusion: From the result of dose equivalent in the breast, one can say that there will be effectively attesting as to the appearance of new cases of cancer if approximately 80 million women are exposed to radiation emitted by mammographers. (author)

  10. SU-E-I-55: The Contribution to Skin Dose Due to Scatter From the Patient Table and the Head Holder During Fluoroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Islam, N; Xiong, Z; Vijayan, S; Rudin, S; Bednarek, D [Toshiba Stroke and Vascular Research Center, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To determine contributions to skin dose due to scatter from the table and head holder used during fluoroscopy, and also to explore alternative design material to reduce the scatter dose. Methods: Measurements were made of the primary and scatter components of the xray beam exiting the patient table and a cylindrical head holder used on a Toshiba Infinix c-arm unit as a function of kVp for the various beam filters on the machine and for various field sizes. The primary component of the beam was measured in air with the object placed close to the x-ray tube with an air gap between it and a 6 cc parallel-plate ionization chamber and with the beam collimated to a size just larger than the chamber. The primary plus scatter radiation components were measured with the object moved to a position in the beam next to the chamber for larger field sizes. Both sets of measurements were preformed while keeping the source-to-chamber distance fixed. The scatter fraction was estimated by taking the ratio of the difference between the two measurements and the reading that included both primary and scatter. Similar measurements were also made for a 2.3 cm thick Styrofoam block which could substitute for the patient support. Results: The measured scatter fractions indicate that the patient table as well as the head holder contributes an additional 10–16% to the patient entrance dose depending on field size. Forward scatter was reduced with the Styrofoam block so that the scatter fraction was about 4–5%. Conclusion: The results of this investigation demonstrated that scatter from the table and head holder used in clinical fluoroscopy contribute substantially to the skin dose. The lower contribution of scatter from Styrofoam suggests that there is an opportunity to redesign patient support accessories to reduce the skin dose. Partial support from NIH grant R01EB002873 and Toshiba Medical Systems Corporation Equipment Grant.

  11. Measurement uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartley, David; Lidén, Göran

    2008-08-01

    The reporting of measurement uncertainty has recently undergone a major harmonization whereby characteristics of a measurement method obtained during establishment and application are combined componentwise. For example, the sometimes-pesky systematic error is included. A bias component of uncertainty can be often easily established as the uncertainty in the bias. However, beyond simply arriving at a value for uncertainty, meaning to this uncertainty if needed can sometimes be developed in terms of prediction confidence in uncertainty-based intervals covering what is to be measured. To this end, a link between concepts of accuracy and uncertainty is established through a simple yet accurate approximation to a random variable known as the non-central Student's t-distribution. Without a measureless and perpetual uncertainty, the drama of human life would be destroyed. Winston Churchill.

  12. An Assessment of Uncertainties in the NASA GISS ModelE GCM due to Variations in the Representation of Aerosol/Cloud Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, G. G.; Menon, S.; Sednev, I.

    2008-12-01

    Aerosol indirect effects are known to have a significant impact on the evolution of the climate system. However, their representation via cloud/aerosol microphysics remains a major source of uncertainty in climate models. This study assesses uncertainties in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE global climate model produced by different representations of the cloud/aerosol interaction scheme. By varying the complexity of the cloud microphysics scheme included in the model and analyzing the range of results against cloud properties obtained from satellite retrievals, we evaluate the effect of the different schemes on climate. We examine four sets of simulations with the GISS ModelE: (1) using a new aerosol/cloud microphysics package implemented in ModelE (based on the two-moment cloud microphysics scheme recently implemented in CCSM), (2) using a version of the microphysics scheme previously included in ModelE, (3) using prescribed aerosol concentrations and fixed cloud droplet number (the main link between aerosols and the cloud microphysics scheme), and (4) varying the environment conditions with which the new aerosol/cloud microphysics package is run. The global mean cloud properties are analyzed and compared to global mean ranges as obtained from satellite retrievals. Results show that important climate parameters, such as total cloud cover, can be underestimated by 8-15% using the new aerosol/cloud microphysics scheme. Liquid water path (LWP) is particularly affected by variations to the aerosol/cloud microphysics representation, exhibiting both global mean variations of ~20% and strong regional differences. Significant variability in LWP between the various simulations may be attributed to differences in the autoconversion scheme used in the differing representations of aerosol/cloud interactions. These LWP differences significantly affect radiative parameters, such as cloud optical depth and net cloud forcing (used to evaluate the

  13. Radiation dose estimation due Pb-210 incorporation in inhabitants from Recife/PE, Brazil; Estimacao da dose de radiacao por incorporacao de Pb-210 nos ossos de habitantes de Recife/Pernambuco, Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa Junior, C.E.O.; Silva, E.B.; Santos Junior, J.A., E-mail: oliveiracosta@msn.com [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Departamento de Energia Nuclear. Grupo de Radioprotecao e Radioecologia; Silva, C.M. [Universidade de Pernambuco (UPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Departamento de Matematica

    2013-08-15

    {sup 210}Pb is an element widely distributed in the environment and when it is ingested by humans through air, water and food can cause various diseases including cancer because it is deposited in bones. Studies about assessment of the dose due to incorporation of {sup 210}Pb using the urine samples of volunteers from Recife are scarce. Thus, the purpose of this research was to estimate the radiation dose in bones of inhabitants from Recife (PE-Brazil) by incorporation of this radionuclide. For this, the concentration of {sup 210}Pb present in urine samples was determinate from 11 healthy and nonsmoker subjects. The urine samples were collected for a period of 24 hours following the procedures adopted by Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria. Pb-210 was separated by ion exchange resin technique. In this method, the {sup 210}Pb was precipitated in form of PbCrO{sub 4} followed by beta counting, which were conducted in a Canberra Tennelec S5E detector. To estimate radiation dose in bones it was adopted values of retention and excretion of activity from IAEA-37. Concentrations of {sup 210}Pb in the urine samples of inhabitants from Recife varied from 82 to 712 mBq.l{sup -1}. The maximum annual dose estimated in bones for individuals from Recife was about 2.15 nSv.y{sup -1}. This value is below from the recommended dose limit for member of the general public, which corresponding to 1 mSv.a{sup -1}, representing a negligible risk for the population studied. (author)

  14. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  15. Natural radioactivity and effective dose due to the bottom sea and estuaries marine animals in the coastal waters around Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandaker, M U; Olatunji, M A; Shuib, K S K; Hakimi, N A; Nasir, N L M; Asaduzzaman, Kh; Amin, Y M; Kassim, H A

    2015-11-01

    Malaysia is among the countries with the highest fish consumption in the world and relies on seafood as a main source of animal protein. Thus, the radioactivity in the mostly consumed marine animals such as fishes, crustaceans and molluscs collected from the coastal waters around Peninsular Malaysia has been determined to monitor the level of human exposure by natural radiation via seafood consumption. The mean activity concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides (226)Ra ((238)U), (228)Ra ((232)Th) and (40)K ranged from 0.67 ± 0.19 Bq kg(-1) (Perna viridis) to 1.20 ± 0.70 Bq kg(-1) (Rastrelliger), from 0.19 ± 0.17 Bq kg(-1) (Teuthida) to 0.82 ± 0.67 Bq kg(-1) (Caridea) and from 34 ± 13 Bq kg(-1) (Caridea) to 48 ± 24 Bq kg(-1) (Teuthida), respectively. The mean annual committed effective dose due to the individual radionuclides shows an order of (228)Ra > (226)Ra > (40)K in all marine samples. The obtained doses are less than the global internal dose of 290 µSv y(-1) set by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, discarding any significant radiological risks to the populace of Peninsular Malaysia.

  16. Monte Carlo estimation of radiation dose in organs of female and male adult phantoms due to FDG-F18 absorbed in the lungs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belinato, Walmir; Santos, William S.; Silva, Rogério M. V.; Souza, Divanizia N.

    2014-03-01

    The determination of dose conversion factors (S values) for the radionuclide fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) absorbed in the lungs during a positron emission tomography (PET) procedure was calculated using the Monte Carlo method (MCNPX version 2.7.0). For the obtained dose conversion factors of interest, it was considered a uniform absorption of radiopharmaceutical by the lung of a healthy adult human. The spectrum of fluorine was introduced in the input data file for the simulation. The simulation took place in two adult phantoms of both sexes, based on polygon mesh surfaces called FASH and MASH with anatomy and posture according to ICRP 89. The S values for the 22 internal organs/tissues, chosen from ICRP No. 110, for the FASH and MASH phantoms were compared with the results obtained from a MIRD V phantoms called ADAM and EVA used by the Committee on Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD). We observed variation of more than 100% in S values due to structural anatomical differences in the internal organs of the MASH and FASH phantoms compared to the mathematical phantom.

  17. Monte Carlo estimation of radiation dose in organs of female and male adult phantoms due to FDG-F18 absorbed in the lungs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinato Walmir

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The determination of dose conversion factors (S values for the radionuclide fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG absorbed in the lungs during a positron emission tomography (PET procedure was calculated using the Monte Carlo method (MCNPX version 2.7.0. For the obtained dose conversion factors of interest, it was considered a uniform absorption of radiopharmaceutical by the lung of a healthy adult human. The spectrum of fluorine was introduced in the input data file for the simulation. The simulation took place in two adult phantoms of both sexes, based on polygon mesh surfaces called FASH and MASH with anatomy and posture according to ICRP 89. The S values for the 22 internal organs/tissues, chosen from ICRP No. 110, for the FASH and MASH phantoms were compared with the results obtained from a MIRD V phantoms called ADAM and EVA used by the Committee on Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD. We observed variation of more than 100% in S values due to structural anatomical differences in the internal organs of the MASH and FASH phantoms compared to the mathematical phantom.

  18. Severe lactic acidosis due to thiamine deficiency in a patient with B-cell leukemia/lymphoma on total parenteral nutrition during high-dose methotrexate therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svahn, Johanna; Schiaffino, Maria Cristina; Caruso, Ubaldo; Calvillo, Michaela; Minniti, Giuseppe; Dufour, Carlo

    2003-12-01

    An 11-month-old girl with B-cell leukemia/lymphoma developed profound lethargy due to severe lactic acidosis during chemotherapy and total parenteral nutrition (TPN). Initial treatment with NaHCO3 was ineffective. Treatment with a vitamin cocktail (OH-cobalamin, pyridoxine, thiamine, riboflavine, biotin, carnitine) at pharmacologic doses rapidly improved the child's clinical and laboratory status. Lactic acidosis was caused by an impairment of pyruvate dehydrogenase complex, which was due to lack of its necessary cofactor thiamine in the TPN. This case report indicates that lactic acidosis may be a front-line diagnosis in patients on TPN with lethargy and outlines the need for monitoring thiamine supply in TPN.

  19. Margin selection to compensate for loss of target dose coverage due to target motion during external-beam radiation therapy of the lung.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, W Kyle; Osei, Ernest; Barnett, Rob

    2015-01-08

    The aim of this study is to provide guidelines for the selection of external-beam radiation therapy target margins to compensate for target motion in the lung during treatment planning. A convolution model was employed to predict the effect of target motion on the delivered dose distribution. The accuracy of the model was confirmed with radiochromic film measurements in both static and dynamic phantom modes. 502 unique patient breathing traces were recorded and used to simulate the effect of target motion on a dose distribution. A 1D probability density function (PDF) representing the position of the target throughout the breathing cycle was generated from each breathing trace obtained during 4D CT. Changes in the target D95 (the minimum dose received by 95% of the treatment target) due to target motion were analyzed and shown to correlate with the standard deviation of the PDF. Furthermore, the amount of target D95 recovered per millimeter of increased field width was also shown to correlate with the standard deviation of the PDF. The sensitivity of changes in dose coverage with respect to target size was also determined. Margin selection recommendations that can be used to compensate for loss of target D95 were generated based on the simulation results. These results are discussed in the context of clinical plans. We conclude that, for PDF standard deviations less than 0.4 cm with target sizes greater than 5 cm, little or no additional margins are required. Targets which are smaller than 5 cm with PDF standard deviations larger than 0.4 cm are most susceptible to loss of coverage. The largest additional required margin in this study was determined to be 8 mm.

  20. Estimation of annual effective dose due to natural and man-made radionuclides in the metropolitan area of the Bay of Cadiz (SW of Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Ruiz, M; Ligero, R A; Barbero, L

    2012-06-01

    In order to investigate the radiological hazard of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) and man-made (137)Cs radionuclide in the Bay of Cádiz, 149 samples of sediments have been analysed. Activity concentration in all the samples was determined using a HPGe detection system. Activity concentrations values of (226)Ra, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs in the samples were 12.6±2.6 (2.5-40.6), 18.5±4.0 (2.8-73.4), 451±45 (105-1342) and 3.2±1.3 (0.2-16.0) Bq kg(-1), respectively. Outdoor external dose rate due to natural and man-made radionuclides was calculated to be 35.79±1.69 (4.71-119.16) nGy h(-1) and annual effective dose was estimated to be 43.89±2.27 (5.78-146.14) µSv y(-1). Results showed low levels of radioactivity due to NORM and man-made (137)Cs radionuclide in marine sediments recovered from the Bay of Cádiz (Spain), discarding any significant radiological risks related to human activities of the area. Furthermore, the obtained data set could be used as background levels for future research.

  1. On the reduction of internal radiation doses due to the ingestion of CS-137 in areas contaminated by the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, P.; Schlager, M.; Vogel, V.; Hille, R. [Forschungszentrum Julich GmbH, Julich (Germany); Nesterenko, A.V.; Nesterenko, V.B. [BELRAD, Minsk, (Belarus)

    2006-07-01

    After the Chernobyl reactor accident wide areas of Belarus have been contaminated with radioactive fallout. The verification and documentation of the long-term development of radiation doses is still going on. A population group of special concern are the children living in contaminated regions. Of the two million Belarussian children, approximately 80000 live in regions contaminated after the Chernobyl accident by a {sup 137}Cs deposition of more than 185 kBq/m. A German-Belarussian project is investigating radiation doses of children in those regions since several years. In a recent paper [1] it has been shown, that the annual dose limit of 1 mSv/a is still exceeded in some cases, essentially due to high body burdens of Cs -137 as indicated by screening measurements with portable incorporation monitors. Means of dose reduction such as remediation of agricultural land had been investigated in the past and generally already contribute to a reduction of food contamination. Also the use of clean food and the control of food contamination has generally proven its effectiveness and the latter is exercised by official authorities and private initiatives. In situations, where this is not sufficient, the clarification of the usefulness of additional means, such as the cure-like application of pectin preparations, makes sense. A dose lowering effect is presumed by Belarussian and Ukrainian scientists. In the framework of the present German-Belarussian project special attention is given to the cure-like application of a Belarussian pectin-preparation (Vitapect). Vitapect consists of apple pectins with added vitamins, mineral nutrients and flavour substances. It is currently in use in Belarus in accordance with legal regulations and licensed by the Belarus authorities. In a placebo-controlled double-blind study, several groups of contaminated children were treated with Vitapect for a two -week period during their stay in a sanatorium. For comparison the same number of

  2. The IRSN publishes an assessment of doses received in Japan by external irradiation due to radioactive deposits caused by the Fukushima-Daiichi power plant accident; L'IRSN publie une estimation des doses recues au Japon par irradiation externe due aux depots radioactifs provoques par l'accident de la centrale de Fukushima-Daiichi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This document first describes how dry and wet radioactive deposits are formed. It also indicates their main components: iodine 131 and 132, caesium 134, 136 and 137, tellurium 132, and barium 140. It describes the different exposure ways due to radioactive deposits in the environment. A map indicates dose level assessments few tens of kilometres around the Fukushima power plant. A brief comment of this map is proposed

  3. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  4. Low-dose tenecteplase during cardiopulmonary resuscitation due to massive pulmonary embolism: a case report and review of previously reported cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefer, David Václav Fred; Munir, Aman; Khouli, Hassan

    2007-10-01

    The case of a 29 year-old man who suffered a cardiac arrest due to a massive pulmonary embolism while he was undergoing surgical repair of a complex tibial plateau fracture is presented. After 70 min of unsuccessful cardiopulmonary resuscitation a bolus of 20 mg tenecteplase was given, with a return of spontaneous circulation 2 min after administration of the drug. Pulmonary embolism was subsequently demonstrated on a pulmonary angiogram. To our knowledge this is the first report to show that the use of a low dose of tenecteplase might be useful to achieve the return of spontaneous circulation in the resuscitation of patients with cardiac arrest secondary to massive pulmonary embolism. Previously reported cases are reviewed.

  5. Sources of uncertainty in individual monitoring for photographic,TL and OSL dosimetry techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Max S.; Silva, Everton R.; Mauricio, Claudia L.P., E-mail: max.das.ferreira@gmail.com, E-mail: everton@ird.gov.br, E-mail: claudia@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    The identification of the uncertainty sources and their quantification is essential to the quality of any dosimetric results. If uncertainties are not stated for all dose measurements informed in the monthly dose report to the monitored radiation facilities, they need to be known. This study aims to analyze the influence of different sources of uncertainties associated with photographic, TL and OSL dosimetric techniques, considering the evaluation of occupational doses of whole-body exposure for photons. To identify the sources of uncertainty it was conducted a bibliographic review in specific documents that deal with operational aspects of each technique and the uncertainties associated to each of them. Withal, technical visits to individual monitoring services were conducted to assist in this identification. The sources of uncertainty were categorized and their contributions were expressed in a qualitative way. The process of calibration and traceability are the most important sources of uncertainties, regardless the technique used. For photographic dosimetry, the remaining important uncertainty sources are due to: energy and angular dependence; linearity of response; variations in the films processing. For TL and OSL, the key process for a good performance is respectively the reproducibility of the thermal and optical cycles. For the three techniques, all procedures of the measurement process must be standardized, controlled and reproducible. Further studies can be performed to quantify the contribution of the sources of uncertainty. (author)

  6. Dose rate measurement due to activation of the head of a linear accelerator used in radiotherapy; Medida de tasa de dosis debido a la activacion del cabezal de un acelerador lineal utilizado en radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Ruiz-Zorrilla, J.; Minambres Moro, A.; Fernandez Leton, P.; Martinez Gomez, L. C.; Gillaranz Moreno, R.; Castro Novais, J.; Zucca Aparicio, D.; Perez Moreno, J. M.

    2011-07-01

    Electron accelerators which produce photon energies greater than 8 MV dose rates can present after irradiation due to the emission of neutrons and consequent formation of products of activation, the aim of this study is to measure the variation in the rate of dose over time produced by an accelerator of 25 MV and try to locate any of the isotopes produced and conservatively estimate the dose received by workers.

  7. PIV uncertainty propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciacchitano, Andrea; Wieneke, Bernhard

    2016-08-01

    This paper discusses the propagation of the instantaneous uncertainty of PIV measurements to statistical and instantaneous quantities of interest derived from the velocity field. The expression of the uncertainty of vorticity, velocity divergence, mean value and Reynolds stresses is derived. It is shown that the uncertainty of vorticity and velocity divergence requires the knowledge of the spatial correlation between the error of the x and y particle image displacement, which depends upon the measurement spatial resolution. The uncertainty of statistical quantities is often dominated by the random uncertainty due to the finite sample size and decreases with the square root of the effective number of independent samples. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to assess the accuracy of the uncertainty propagation formulae. Furthermore, three experimental assessments are carried out. In the first experiment, a turntable is used to simulate a rigid rotation flow field. The estimated uncertainty of the vorticity is compared with the actual vorticity error root-mean-square, with differences between the two quantities within 5-10% for different interrogation window sizes and overlap factors. A turbulent jet flow is investigated in the second experimental assessment. The reference velocity, which is used to compute the reference value of the instantaneous flow properties of interest, is obtained with an auxiliary PIV system, which features a higher dynamic range than the measurement system. Finally, the uncertainty quantification of statistical quantities is assessed via PIV measurements in a cavity flow. The comparison between estimated uncertainty and actual error demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed uncertainty propagation methodology.

  8. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  9. ASSESSMENT OF AGE-DEPENDENT RADIATION DOSE DUE TO INTAKE OF URANIUM AND THORIUM IN DRINKING WATER FROM SIKAR DISTRICT, RAJASTHAN, INDIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggal, Vikas; Rani, Asha; Balaram, V

    2016-10-01

    The concentrations of (238)U and (232)Th have been determined in drinking water samples collected from the Sikar district of Rajasthan State, India. The samples have been analysed by using high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. (238)U content in water samples ranged from 8.20 to 202.63 µg l(-1) and (232)Th content ranged from 0.57 to 1.46 µg l(-1) The measured (238)U content in 25 % of the analysed samples exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) and United States Environmental Protection Agency drinking water guidelines of 30 µg l(-1) and 12.5 % of the samples exceeded the 60 µg l(-1) Indian maximum acceptable concentration recommended by the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, India. The annual effective doses (µSv y(-1)) due to ingestion of (238)U and (232)Th for different age groups were also calculated. The results compared with the recommended value reported by the WHO. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

  11. Model Uncertainty for Bilinear Hysteric Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In structural reliability analysis at least three types of uncertainty must be considered, namely physical uncertainty, statistical uncertainty, and model uncertainty (see e.g. Thoft-Christensen & Baker [1]). The physical uncertainty is usually modelled by a number of basic variables by predictive...... density functions, Veneziano [2]. In general, model uncertainty is the uncertainty connected with mathematical modelling of the physical reality. When structural reliability analysis is related to the concept of a failure surface (or limit state surface) in the n-dimension basic variable space then model...... uncertainty is at least due to the neglected variables, the modelling of the failure surface and the computational technique used....

  12. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  13. Dose-Dependent Change in Elimination Kinetics of Ethanol due to Shift of Dominant Metabolizing Enzyme from ADH 1 (Class I) to ADH 3 (Class III) in Mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseba, Takeshi; Kameyama, Kouji; Mashimo, Keiko; Ohno, Youkichi

    2012-01-01

    ADH 1 and ADH 3 are major two ADH isozymes in the liver, which participate in systemic alcohol metabolism, mainly distributing in parenchymal and in sinusoidal endothelial cells of the liver, respectively. We investigated how these two ADHs contribute to the elimination kinetics of blood ethanol by administering ethanol to mice at various doses, and by measuring liver ADH activity and liver contents of both ADHs. The normalized AUC (AUC/dose) showed a concave increase with an increase in ethanol dose, inversely correlating with β. CL(T) (dose/AUC) linearly correlated with liver ADH activity and also with both the ADH-1 and -3 contents (mg/kg B.W.). When ADH-1 activity was calculated by multiplying ADH-1 content by its V(max⁡)/mg (4.0) and normalized by the ratio of liver ADH activity of each ethanol dose to that of the control, the theoretical ADH-1 activity decreased dose-dependently, correlating with β. On the other hand, the theoretical ADH-3 activity, which was calculated by subtracting ADH-1 activity from liver ADH activity and normalized, increased dose-dependently, correlating with the normalized AUC. These results suggested that the elimination kinetics of blood ethanol in mice was dose-dependently changed, accompanied by a shift of the dominant metabolizing enzyme from ADH 1 to ADH 3.

  14. Dose-Dependent Change in Elimination Kinetics of Ethanol due to Shift of Dominant Metabolizing Enzyme from ADH 1 (Class I to ADH 3 (Class III in Mouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takeshi Haseba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available ADH 1 and ADH 3 are major two ADH isozymes in the liver, which participate in systemic alcohol metabolism, mainly distributing in parenchymal and in sinusoidal endothelial cells of the liver, respectively. We investigated how these two ADHs contribute to the elimination kinetics of blood ethanol by administering ethanol to mice at various doses, and by measuring liver ADH activity and liver contents of both ADHs. The normalized AUC (AUC/dose showed a concave increase with an increase in ethanol dose, inversely correlating with β. CLT (dose/AUC linearly correlated with liver ADH activity and also with both the ADH-1 and -3 contents (mg/kg B.W.. When ADH-1 activity was calculated by multiplying ADH-1 content by its Vmax⁡/mg (4.0 and normalized by the ratio of liver ADH activity of each ethanol dose to that of the control, the theoretical ADH-1 activity decreased dose-dependently, correlating with β. On the other hand, the theoretical ADH-3 activity, which was calculated by subtracting ADH-1 activity from liver ADH activity and normalized, increased dose-dependently, correlating with the normalized AUC. These results suggested that the elimination kinetics of blood ethanol in mice was dose-dependently changed, accompanied by a shift of the dominant metabolizing enzyme from ADH 1 to ADH 3.

  15. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration unce...

  16. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  17. Assessment of radiation doses due to normal operation, incidents and accidents of the final disposal facility; Kaeytetyn ydinpolttoaineen loppusijoituslaitoksen normaalikaeytoen, kaeyttoehaeirioeiden ja onnettomuustilanteiden aiheuttamien saeteilyannosten arviointi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rossi, J.; Raiko, H.; Suolanen, V.; Ilvonen, M. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-03-01

    Radiation doses for workers of the encapsulation and disposal facility and for inhabitants in the environment caused by the facility during its operation were considered. The study covers both the normal operation of the plant and some hypothetical incidents and accidents. Occupational radiation doses inside the plant during normal operation are based on the design basis, assuming that highest permitted dose levels are prevailing in control rooms during fuel transfer and encapsulation processes. Release through the ventilation stack is assumed to be filtered both in normal operation and in hypothetical incident and accident cases. Calculation of the offsite doses from normal operation is based on the hypothesis that one fuel pin per 100 fuel bundles for all batches of spent fuel transported to the encapsulation facility is leaking. The release magnitude in incidents and accidents is based on the event chains, which lead to loss of fuel pin tightness followed by a discharge of radionuclides into the handling chamber and to some degree through the ventilation stack into atmosphere. The weather data measured at the Olkiluoto meteorological mast was employed for calculating of offsite doses. Therefore doses could be calculated in a large amount of different dispersion conditions, the statistical frequencies of which have, been measured. Finally doses were combined into cumulative distributions, from which a dose value representing the 99.5 % confidence level, is presented. The dose values represent the exposure of a critical group, which is assumed to live at the distance of 200 meters from the encapsulation and disposal plant and thus it will receive the largest doses in most dispersion conditions. Exposure pathways considered were: cloudsnine, inhalation, groundshine and nutrition (milk of cow, meat of cow, green vegetables, grain and root vegetables). Nordic seasonal variation is included in ingestion dose models. The results obtained indicate that offsite doses

  18. Study of external exposure doses received by Cuban population due to terrestrial component of the environmental radiation sources; Estudio de las dosis por exposicion externa que recibe la poblacion cubana debidas a la componente terrestre de la radiacion ambiental

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zerquera, Juan Tomas; Prendes Alonso, Miguel [Centro de Proteccion y Higiene de las Radiaciones, La Habana (Cuba); Brigido Flores, Osvaldo [Laboratorio de Vigilancia Radiologica Ambiental de Camaguey (Cuba); Hernandez Perez, Alberto [Laboratorio de Vigilancia Radiologica Ambiental de Oriente, Holguin (Cuba)

    2001-07-01

    The work presents the results of the study carried out to evaluate the doses that the Cuban population receives for the external exposition to the terrestrial component of the environmental sources of radiation. Starting from the carried out measurements it was possible to estimate the doses effective representative annual stockings that the Cuban population receives for external exposition to the terrestrial radiation, considering the permanency in indoors and outdoors. The dose received due to this component was 180{+-}14 mSv/year. These values are in the range of those reported internationally. (author)

  19. Dose assessments for SFR 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, Ulla (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Cruz, Idalmis de la (Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden))

    2008-06-15

    were obtained around year 4,000 AD, when an increase of groundwater discharges occurs in connection with the ongoing shoreline displacement. The peaks for the well are also dominated by C-14, although a few other radionuclides also contribute. This pattern of the peak doses was observed for calculation cases of the main scenario and less probable scenarios. Moreover, the predicted doses, including peak dose values, for calculation cases of the less probable scenarios were very close to the predictions for calculation cases of the main scenario. Predicted annual doses to the most exposed individuals during the first 1,000 years after the repository closure did not exceed 0.05 muSv per year. Low release rates are predicted for this period, when the recipient for the releases is the sea, and doses per unit release rate are low, as compared to the case with releases to a lake or a mire. Doses from short-lived radionuclides were very low, as these can only be released during the sea period. The doses from actinides were also low, due to effective retention in the engineered barriers and their low inventory. In general, total mean annual individual doses were low during the whole simulation period, with values below 14 muSv per year for the main and less probable scenarios. Uncertainty analyses were carried out using probabilistic methods. These analyses showed that the parameter uncertainty in the peak doses from releases to the landscape are low due to the dominant role of C-14, for which the dose factors and the biosphere release rates have low uncertainty. Sensitivity studies were carried out to identify the near field and biosphere parameters that have the highest contribution to the uncertainty of the peak dose estimates. The parameters with the highest contribution to the uncertainties in estimates of release rates from the near field are the flow uncertainty factors for non-sorbing radionuclides and the distribution coefficients in the construction cement for sorbing

  20. Evaluation of the entrance skin dose due to paediatric chest X-rays examinations carried out at a great hospital in Rio de Janeiro city

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohamadain, K.E.M. [Sudan Univ. of Science and Technology, Khartoum (Sudan). Faculty of Sciences. Physics Dept.; Azevedo, A.C.P. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Faculdade de Medicina. Dept. de Radiologia; Rosa, L.A.R. da; Mota, H.C. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Fisica Medica; Goncalves, O.D. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Dept. de Fisica Nuclear; Guebel, M.R.N. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Pediatria e Puericultura Martagao Gesteira

    2001-07-01

    A dosimetric survey in paediatric radiology is currently being carried out at the paediatric unit of a great hospital in Rio de Janeiro city, aiming the assessment of patient doses and image quality. The aim of this work was to estimate the entrance skin dose for frontal and lateral chest X-rays exposure to paediatric patients. Three examination techniques were investigated, namely PA, AP and lateral positions. For entrance skin dose evaluation, two different TL dosimeters were used, namely LiF:Mg,Ti and CaSO4:Dy. The age intervals considered were 0-1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years and 10-15 years. The results obtained with both dosimeters are similar and the entrance skin dose values evaluated for the different age intervals considered are compared with previous values found in Brazil and also in Europe. (author)

  1. Dose evaluation due to the effluent liberation by medical installations at city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Avaliacao de doses devido a liberacao de efluentes por instalacoes medicas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Jane; Rochedo, Elaine R.R., E-mail: jshu@cnen.gov.b, E-mail: erochedo@cnen.gov.b [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CODIN/CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Instalacoes Nucleares; Heilbron, Paulo F.L., E-mail: paulo@cnen.gov.b [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (COREJ/CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Rejeitos; Crispim, Verginia R., E-mail: verginia@con.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

    2011-10-26

    This paper, the city of Rio de Janeiro was taken as a case study. It was processed deterministic and probabilistic simulations vor evaluation of the dose in two exposure sceneries, one of them referring to public members exposure and the other relative to exposure of sewage sanitary treatment plant workers. The results showed that at present the doses for inhabitants of the city and operators of treatment station are lower to dose limit established for the public, the approach presently in use in Brazil is not sufficient to accomplish whit international requirements and the regulation should be revised to be adopted specific values for each radionuclide

  2. Market uncertainty; Markedsusikkerhet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doorman, Gerard; Holtan, Jon Anders; Mo, Birger; Groenli, Helle; Haaland, Magnar; Grinden, Bjoern

    1997-04-10

    In Norway, the project ``Market uncertainty`` has been in progress for over two years and resulted in increased skill in the use of the Grid System Operation Model. This report classifies some of the factors which lead to uncertainties in the electric power market. It has been examined whether these factors should be, or can be, modelled in the available simulation models. Some of the factors have been further considered and methods of modelling the associated uncertainties have been examined. It is concluded that (1) There is a need for automatic simulation of several scenarios in the model, and these scenarios should incorporate probability parameters, (2) At first it is most important that one can handle uncertainties in fuel prices and demand, (3) Market uncertainty which is due to irrational behaviour should be dealt with in a separate model. The difference between real and simulated prices should be analysed and modelled with a time series model, (4) Risk should be included in the Vansimtap model by way of feedback from simulations, (5) The marginal values of stored water as calculated by means of the various methods in use should be compared systematically. 9 refs., 16 figs., 5 tabs.

  3. Relational uncertainty in service dyads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Relational uncertainty determines how relationships develop because it enables the building of trust and commitment. However, relational uncertainty has not been explored in an inter-organisational setting. This paper investigates how organisations experience relational uncertainty...... via semi-structured interviews and secondary data. Findings: The findings suggest that relational uncertainty is caused by the partner’s unresolved organisational uncertainty, i.e. their lacking capabilities to deliver or receive (parts of) the service. Furthermore, we found that resolving...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....

  4. Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jun; Zhang, Yao-Zhong; Gould, Mark D.; Fan, Heng

    2015-04-01

    We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit -log2 ⁡ c. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.

  5. Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    2007-01-01

    Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

  6. Absorbed Dose Distributions in Small Copper Wire Insulation due to Multiple-Sided Irradiations by 0.4 MeV Electrons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, Arne; McLaughlin, W. L.; Pedersen, Walther Batsberg

    1979-01-01

    When scanned electron beams are used to crosslink polymeric insulation of wire and cable, an important goal is to achieve optimum uniformity of absorbed dose distributions. Accurate measurements of dose distributions in a plastic dosimeter simulating a typical insulating material (polyethylene....... and insulation thicknesses between 0.4 and 0.8 mm. The plastic dosimeter simulating polyethylene insulations was a thin radiochromic polyvinyl butyral film wrapped several times around the copper wire, such that when unwrapped and analyzed optically on a scanning microspectrophotometer, high-resolution radial...

  7. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... the high rate of exit seen in the first years of exporting. Finally, when faced with multiple countries in which to export, some firms will choose to sequentially export in order to slowly learn more about its chances for success in untested markets....

  8. Assessment of chloroquine single dose treatment of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in Brazilian Amazon Cloroquina em dose simples no tratamento da malária por Plasmodium vivax na Amazônia brasileira

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Yecê das Neves Pinto

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Malaria regions of the Amazon basin have been characterized by difficult access and non-compliance of the patients to treatment. In an attempt to assess the schizonticide efficacy of chloroquine in a single dose of 600 mg, the authors realized a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 132 outpatients with vivax malaria. Patients were distributed into two groups: group CPLA, given chloroquine 600 mg (single dose on the first day of treatment, and two doses of placebo on second and third days. Group CHLO, given chloroquine 600 mg on first day and 450 mg on second and third day. Geometric means of the parasite density during the follow-up was similar in both groups. No differences were observed in the parasitological cure between the two groups (p = 0.442. There was clinical and parasitological efficacy in treatment of patients given a single-dose of chloroquine. This suggests that its restricted use could be indicated in remote areas of Brazilian Amazon Region, nevertheless the inadequate response of three patients indicates the need for further studies.As regiões malarígenas da Amazônia brasileira têm se caracterizado por dificuldades no acesso ao tratamento e não aceitação das drogas pelos doentes. Com objetivos de avaliar a eficácia da cloroquina em dose simples de 600 mg, os autores realizaram um ensaio clínico duplo cego, placebo controlado em 132 pacientes portadores de malária por P. vivax. Os pacientes foram distribuídos em dois grupos: grupo CPLA que recebia 600 mg de cloroquina em dose simples no primeiro dia de tratamento e duas doses de placebo no segundo e terceiro dias de tratamento. Grupo CLO que recebia 600 mg de cloroquina no primeiro dia e 450 mg no segundo e terceiro dias. A média geométrica da densidade parasitária durante o seguimento foi similar em ambos os grupos. Não houve diferenças de cura parasitológica em ambos os grupos (p = 0,442. Observou-se eficácia clínica e parasitológica nos indivíduos que

  9. ESTIMATION OF THE POPULATION EXPOSURE DOSES FROM NATURAL AND ARTIFICIAL RADIONUCLIDES DUE TO DRINKING-WATER CONSUMPTION FOR THE INHABITANTS OF DIFFERENT AREAS OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju. N. Goncharova

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The report contains data on specific activity values of natural and artificial radionuclides in the water of underground and surface sources in 19 areas of Russian Federation and data on population internal exposure doses from drinking water consumption in these areas.

  10. Absorbed Dose Rate Due to Intake of Natural Radionuclides by Tilapia Fish (Tilapia nilotica,Linnaeus, 1758) Estimated Near Uranium Mining at Caetité, Bahia, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Wagner de S.; Kelecom, Alphonse; Py Júnior, Delcy de Azevedo

    2008-08-01

    The uranium mining at Caetité (Uranium Concentrate Unit—URA) is in its operational phase. Aiming to estimate the radiological environmental impact of the URA, a monitoring program is underway. In order to preserve the biota of the deleterious effects from radiation and to act in a pro-active way as expected from a licensing body, the present work aims to use an environmental protection methodology based on the calculation of absorbed dose rate in biota. Thus, selected target organism was the Tilapia fish (Tilapia nilotica, Linnaeus, 1758) and the radionuclides were: uranium (U-238), thorium (Th-232), radium (Ra-226 and Ra-228) and lead (Pb-210). As, in Brazil there are no radiation exposure limits adopted for biota the value proposed by the Department of Energy (DOE) of the United States of 3.5×103 μGy y-1 has been used. The derived absorbed dose rate calculated for Tilapia was 2.51×100 μGy y-1, that is less than 0.1% of the dose limit established by DOE. The critical radionuclide was Ra-226, with 56% of the absorbed dose rate, followed by U-238 with 34% and Th-232 with 9%. This value of 0.1% of the limit allows to state that, in the operational conditions analyzed, natural radionuclides do not represent a radiological problem to biota.

  11. Uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

  12. Estimate of the uncertainties in the relative risk of secondary malignant neoplasms following proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontenot, Jonas D.; Bloch, Charles; Followill, David; Titt, Uwe; Newhauser, Wayne D.

    2010-12-01

    Theoretical calculations have shown that proton therapy can reduce the incidence of radiation-induced secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) compared with photon therapy for patients with prostate cancer. However, the uncertainties associated with calculations of SMN risk had not been assessed. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainties in projected risks of secondary cancer following contemporary proton and photon radiotherapies for prostate cancer. We performed a rigorous propagation of errors and several sensitivity tests to estimate the uncertainty in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) due to the largest contributors to the uncertainty: the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the dose-response model for radiation carcinogenesis and interpatient variations in absorbed dose. The interval of values for the radiation weighting factor for neutrons and the dose-response model were derived from the literature, while interpatient variations in absorbed dose were taken from actual patient data. The influence of each parameter on a baseline RRR value was quantified. Our analysis revealed that the calculated RRR was insensitive to the largest contributors to the uncertainty. Uncertainties in the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the shape of the dose-risk model and interpatient variations in therapeutic and stray doses introduced a total uncertainty of 33% to the baseline RRR calculation.

  13. Dose assessments for SFR 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, Ulla (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Cruz, Idalmis de la (Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden))

    2008-06-15

    were obtained around year 4,000 AD, when an increase of groundwater discharges occurs in connection with the ongoing shoreline displacement. The peaks for the well are also dominated by C-14, although a few other radionuclides also contribute. This pattern of the peak doses was observed for calculation cases of the main scenario and less probable scenarios. Moreover, the predicted doses, including peak dose values, for calculation cases of the less probable scenarios were very close to the predictions for calculation cases of the main scenario. Predicted annual doses to the most exposed individuals during the first 1,000 years after the repository closure did not exceed 0.05 muSv per year. Low release rates are predicted for this period, when the recipient for the releases is the sea, and doses per unit release rate are low, as compared to the case with releases to a lake or a mire. Doses from short-lived radionuclides were very low, as these can only be released during the sea period. The doses from actinides were also low, due to effective retention in the engineered barriers and their low inventory. In general, total mean annual individual doses were low during the whole simulation period, with values below 14 muSv per year for the main and less probable scenarios. Uncertainty analyses were carried out using probabilistic methods. These analyses showed that the parameter uncertainty in the peak doses from releases to the landscape are low due to the dominant role of C-14, for which the dose factors and the biosphere release rates have low uncertainty. Sensitivity studies were carried out to identify the near field and biosphere parameters that have the highest contribution to the uncertainty of the peak dose estimates. The parameters with the highest contribution to the uncertainties in estimates of release rates from the near field are the flow uncertainty factors for non-sorbing radionuclides and the distribution coefficients in the construction cement for sorbing

  14. Reconstructive dosimetry and radiation doses evaluation of members of the public due to radiological accident in industrial radiography; Dosimetria reconstrutiva e avaliacao de dose de individuos do publico devido a acidente radiologico em radiografia industrial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Camila Moreira Araujo de

    2016-07-01

    Radiological accidents have occurred mainly in the practices recognized as high risk radiological and classified by the IAEA as Categories 1 and 2, and highlighted the radiotherapy, industrial irradiators and industrial radiography. In Brazil, since there were five major cases in industrial radiography, which involved 7 radiation workers and 19 members of the public, causing localized radiation lesions on the hands and fingers. One of these accidents will be the focus of this work. In this accident, a {sup 192}Ir radioactive source was exposed for more than 8 hours in the workplace inside a company, exposing radiation workers, individuals of the public and people from the surrounding facilities, including children of a school. The radioactive source was also handled by a security worker causing severe radiation injuries in the hand and fingers. In this paper, the most relevant and used techniques of reconstructive dosimetry internationally are presented. To estimate the radiation doses received by exposed individuals in various scenarios of radiological accident in focus, the following computer codes were used: Visual Monte Carlo Dose Calculation (VMC), Virtual Environment for Radiological and Nuclear Accidents Simulation (AVSAR) and RADPRO Calculator. Through these codes some radiation doses were estimated, such as, 33.90 Gy in security worker's finger, 4.47 mSv in children in the school and 55 to 160 mSv for workers in the company during the whole day work. It is intended that this work will contribute to the improvement of dose reconstruction methodology for radiological accidents, having then more realist radiation doses. (author)

  15. Differences in 3D dose distributions due to calculation method of voxel S-values and the influence of image blurring in SPECT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacilio, Massimiliano; Amato, Ernesto; Lanconelli, Nico; Basile, Chiara; Torres, Leonel Alberto; Botta, Francesca; Ferrari, Mahila; Diaz, Nestor Cornejo; Perez, Marco Coca; Fernández, María; Lassmann, Michael; Gil, Alex Vergara; Cremonesi, Marta

    2015-03-07

    This study compares 3D dose distributions obtained with voxel S values (VSVs) for soft tissue, calculated by several methods at their current state-of-the-art, varying the degree of image blurring. The methods were: 1) convolution of Dose Point Kernel (DPK) for water, using a scaling factor method; 2) an analytical model (AM), fitting the deposited energy as a function of the source-target distance; 3) a rescaling method (RSM) based on a set of high-resolution VSVs for each isotope; 4) local energy deposition (LED). VSVs calculated by direct Monte Carlo simulations were assumed as reference. Dose distributions were calculated considering spheroidal clusters with various sizes (251, 1237 and 4139 voxels of 3 mm size), uniformly filled with (131)I, (177)Lu, (188)Re or (90)Y. The activity distributions were blurred with Gaussian filters of various widths (6, 8 and 12 mm). Moreover, 3D-dosimetry was performed for 10 treatments with (90)Y derivatives. Cumulative Dose Volume Histograms (cDVHs) were compared, studying the differences in D95%, D50% or Dmax (ΔD95%, ΔD50% and ΔDmax) and dose profiles.For unblurred spheroidal clusters, ΔD95%, ΔD50% and ΔDmax were mostly within some percents, slightly higher for (177)Lu with DPK (8%) and RSM (12%) and considerably higher for LED (ΔD95% up to 59%). Increasing the blurring, differences decreased and also LED yielded very similar results, but D95% and D50% underestimations between 30-60% and 15-50%, respectively (with respect to 3D-dosimetry with unblurred distributions), were evidenced. Also for clinical images (affected by blurring as well), cDVHs differences for most methods were within few percents, except for slightly higher differences with LED, and almost systematic for dose profiles with DPK (-1.2%), AM (-3.0%) and RSM (4.5%), whereas showed an oscillating trend with LED.The major concern for 3D-dosimetry on clinical SPECT images is more strongly represented by image blurring than by differences among the VSVs

  16. PARAMETERS OF THE DIETARY PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF THE BRYANSK REGION INHABITANTS IN MAY 1986, INFLUENCING THE EVALUATION OF THE DOSE RECEIVED DUE TO THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Zvonova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of the poll on the lifestyle and nutrition of the population of the most contaminated areas of the Bryansk and Tula regions during the initial period after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant are presented in the article. The poll was held at the beginning of 1987. Mean values of numeric factors were derived form the results of processing of questionnaires received from 8500 persons, namely: value of milk daily consumption depending on the age and place of residence, the date of the dairy cattle grazing starting, time of milk consumption termination in May 1986, time spent by the person outdoors and in the dwelling, data on the leaving of the contaminated territory. Obtained information is used for the clarification of models for the internal and external exposure dose calculation and for personalization of the dose estimations for the individual inhabitants.

  17. Upper gastrointestinal bleed in a post menopausal woman due to combination of high first dose aspirin and clopidogrel prescribed for acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, Vishal R; Maqbool, Rubeena; Kahkashan, Iram; Sharma, Rashmi; Khajuria, Vijay; Gillani, Zahid

    2015-01-01

    Combination of aspirin, clopidogrel and enoxaparin remains the standard treatment for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) but is known to increase the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). We hereby report an unusual case of gastrointestinal bleed (GIB) as it resulted inspite of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) prophylaxis within the second day of treatment in a post-menopausal woman (PMW) with high first dose of aspirin clopidogrel dual combination in a patient of ACS.

  18. Upper gastrointestinal bleed in a post menopausal woman due to combination of high first dose aspirin and clopidogrel prescribed for acute coronary syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishal R Tandon

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Combination of aspirin, clopidogrel and enoxaparin remains the standard treatment for acute coronary syndrome (ACS but is known to increase the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB. We hereby report an unusual case of gastrointestinal bleed (GIB as it resulted inspite of proton pump inhibitor (PPI prophylaxis within the second day of treatment in a post-menopausal woman (PMW with high first dose of aspirin clopidogrel dual combination in a patient of ACS.

  19. Dose distribution perturbation due to a Co-Cr-Mo prosthesis; Perturbacion introducida en la distribucion de dosis por una protesis de Co-Cr-Mo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro Novais, J.; Rodriguez Rodriguez, C.; Cabello Murillo, E.; Fernandez Leton, P.; Perez Moreno, J. M.; Lopez Fernandez, A.; Ferrando Sanchez, A.; Martinez Gomez, L. C.

    2009-07-01

    Knowledge of the attenuation and interface effects when irradiating metallic prosthesis is necessary for the radiotherapy treatment of patients with this kind of implants. This report studies the dose distribution of a 6 MV photon beam in the vicinity of a 1,5 cm diameter Co-Cr-Mo prosthesis. Measurements with Gafchromic EBT radiochromic films have been made. Two blocks of cut films have been placed next to the prosthesis, one in each side. Forty two films reaching a height of 1 cm have been piled up in each block. A spatial resolution equal to the thickness of one film (0,24 mm) is achieved. The results show 28% attenuation and the production of a 42% overdose at the entrance interface, 12% and 3% at 1 mm and 2 mm away from the prosthesis respectively. A 5 mm build-up region is originated in the exit interface, where the under dose is less than 10%. The knowledge of the transmission factor and the interface effects allows us to assess the dose calculated by the treatment planning system. (Author) 11 refs.

  20. Absorbed dose rate due to intake of natural radionuclides by Tilapia fish (Tilapia nilotica, Linnaeus, 1758) estimated near uranium anomaly at Santa Quiteria, Ceara, Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, Wagner de [Industrias Nucleares do Brasil S.A. (INB), Pocos de Caldas, MG (Brazil). Coordenacao de Protecao Radiologica. Unidade de Tratamento de Minerios], E-mail: wspereira@inb.gov.br; Kelecom, Alphonse [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-graduacao em Ciencia Ambiental; Py Junior, Delcy de Azevedo [Industrias Nucleares do Brasil S.A. (INB), Caetite, BA (Brazil). Coordenacao de Protecao Radiologica. Unidade de Concentrado de Uranio], E-mail: Delcy@inb.gov.br

    2007-07-01

    The uranium mining at Santa Quiteria (Santa Quiteria Unit - USQ) is in its environmental licensing phase. Aiming to estimate the radiological environmental impact of the USQ, a monitoring program is underway. However, radioprotection of biota is not explicitly mentioned in Brazilian norms. In order to preserve the biota of the deleterious effects from radiation and to behave in a pro-active way as expected by licensing organs, the present work aims to use an environmental protection methodology, based on the calculation of absorbed dose rate in biota. Thus, selected biomarker was the fish tilapia (Tilapia nilotica, Linnaeus, 1758) and the radionuclides were: uranium (U-238), thorium (Th-232), radium (Ra-226 and Ra-228) and lead (Pb-210). Since there are no exposition limits for biota, in Brazil, the value proposed by the Department of Energy (DOE) of the United States of 3.5 x 10{sup 3} {mu}Gy/y has been used. The derived absorbed dose rate calculated for tilapia was 2.76 x 10{sup 0} {mu}Gy/y, that is less than 0.1 % of the limit established by DOE. The critical radionuclide was U-238, with 99% of the absorbed dose rate. This value of 0.1% of the limit allows to state that in pre-operational conditions analyzed natural radionuclides do not represent a radiological problem to the biota. (author)

  1. Evaluation of the absorbed dose to the lungs due to Xe{sup 133} and Tc{sup 99m} (MAA); Evaluacion de la dosis absorbida en los pulmones debido al Xe{sup 133} y Tc{sup 99m} (MAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vazquez A, M.; Murillo C, F.; Castillo D, C.; Sifuentes D, Y.; Sanchez S, P. [Universidad Nacional de Trujillo, Av. Juan Pablo II s/n, Trujillo (Peru); Rojas P, E. [Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear, Av. Canada 1470, Lima (Peru); Marquez P, F., E-mail: marvva@hotmail.com [Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplasicas, Av. Angamos 2520, Lima (Peru)

    2015-10-15

    The absorbed dose in lungs of an adult patient has been evaluated using the biokinetics of radiopharmaceuticals containing Xe{sup 133} or Tc{sup 99m} (MAA). The absorbed dose was calculated using the MIRD formalism, and the Cristy-and Eckerman lungs model. The absorbed dose in the lungs due to {sup 133}Xe is 0.00104 mGy/MBq. Here, the absorbed dose due to remaining tissue, included in the {sup 133}Xe biokinetics is not significant. The absorbed dose in the lungs, due Tc{sup 99m} (MAA), is 0.065 mGy/MBq. Approximately, 4.6% of the absorbed dose is due to organs like liver, kidneys, bladder, and the rest of tissues, included in the Tc{sup 99m} biokinetics. Here, the absorbed dose is very significant to be overlooked. The dose contribution is mainly due to photons emitted by the liver. (Author)

  2. Ratios between effective doses for tomographic and mathematician models due to internal exposure of photons; Razoes entre doses efetivas para modelos tomograficos e modelos matematicos devido as exposicoes internas de fotons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, F.R.A. [Centro Regional de Ciencias Nucleares do Nordeste (CRCN-NE/CNEN-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Kramer, R.; Khoury, H.J.; Santos, A.M. [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. de Energia Nuclear; Vieira, W. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Pernambuco (CEFET-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Loureiro, E.C.M. [Escola Politecnica de Pernambuco, Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The development of new and sophisticated Monte Carlo codes and tomographic human phantoms or voxels motivated the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to revise the traditional models of exposure, which have been used to calculate effective dose coefficients for organs and tissues based on mathematician phantoms known as MIRD5. This paper shows the results of calculations using tomographic phantoms MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel), recently developed by the authors as well as with the phantoms ADAM and EVA, of specific genres, type MIRD5, coupled to the EGS4 Monte Carlo and MCNP4C codes, for internal exposure with photons of energies between 10 keV and 4 MeV to several organs sources. Effective Doses for both models, tomographic and mathematician, will be compared separately as a function of the Monte Carlo code replacement, of compositions of human tissues and the anatomy reproduced through tomographs. The results indicate that for photon internal exposure, the use of models of exposure based in voxel, increases the values of effective doses up to 70% for some organs sources considered in this study, when compared with the corresponding results obtained with phantoms of MIRD-5 type.

  3. The ratio between effective doses due to external exposure to electrons for tomographic and mathematical models; Razoes entre doses efetivas devido a exposicao externa de eletrons para modelos tomograficos e matematicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Fernando R.A. [Centro Regional de Ciencias Nucleares (CRCN), Recife, PE (Brazil)]|[Faculdade Boa Viagem (FBV), Recife, PE (Brazil)]. E-mail: falima@cnen.gov.br; Kramer, Richard; Khoury, Helen J. [Pernambuco Univ., Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. de Energia Nuclear]. E-mail: rkramer@uol.com.br; hjkhoury@globo.com; Vieira, Jose W. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Pernambuco (CEFET-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil)]. E-mail: jwvieira@br.inter.net; Yoriyaz, Helio [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)]. E-mail: hyotiyaz@ipen.br; Loureiro, Eduardo C.M. [Universidade de Pernambuco, Recife, PE (Brazil). Escola Politecnica (POLI/UPE)]. E-mail: eduloureiro@uol.com.br

    2005-07-01

    The development of new, sophisticated Monte Carlo codes, and of tomographic or voxel based human phantoms motivated the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) to call for a revision of traditional exposure models, which have been used in the past to calculate organ and tissue as well as effective dose coefficients for stylized MIRD5- type phantoms. This paper reports about calculations made with the recently developed tomographic MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel) phantoms, as well as with the gender-specific MIRD5-type phantoms ADAM and EVA, coupled to the EGS4 and to the MCNP4C Monte Carlo code, for external whole-body irradiation with electrons. Effective doses for the tomographic and for the stylized exposure models will be compared separately as function of the replacement of the Monte Carlo code, of human tissue compositions, and of the stylized by the tomographic anatomy. The results indicate that for external exposures to electrons the introduction of voxel-based exposure models causes changes of the effective dose between +40% and - 60% depending on the energies and geometries considered compared to corresponding data of the MIRD5-type phantoms. (author)

  4. Reasons between effective doses for tomographic and mathematical models due to external exposition by photons; Razoes entre doses efetivas para modelos tomograficos e matematicos devido a exposicoes externas a fotons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, R.; Khoury, H.J. [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. de Energia Nuclear; Vieira, J.W. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Pernambuco (CEFET-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Yoriyaz, H. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Lima, F.R.A. [Centro Regional de Ciencias Nucleares do Nordeste (CRCN-NE/CNEN-PE), Recife, PE (Brazil); Loureiro, E.C.M. [Escola Politecnica de Pernambuco (POLI/UPE), Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The development of Monte Carlo codes and new and sophisticated tomographic human models, or based on voxel, motivated the ICRP to propose a revision of the traditional exposition models, which have been used to calculate doses on organs and tissues using mathematical phantoms MIRD-type 5. This article presents calculations made with tomographic phantoms MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel), recently developed and also, for comparison, with ADAM and Eve mathematician phantoms. All models were coupled to the EGS4 and MCNP4 codes for full body external irradiation by photons. It were simulated expositions AP, PA and rotational for energies varying between 10 keV and 10 MeV. The effective calculated doses were compared separately to evaluate: the replacement of the Monte Carlo code; the composition of the tissues and the replacement of tomographic phantoms by mathematical ones. Effective doses calculated results indicate that for external exposures by photons to introduce models based on voxels can cause a reduction of about 10% to the energies considered in this study.

  5. Orbital State Uncertainty Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwood, J.; Poore, A. B.

    2012-09-01

    Fundamental to the success of the space situational awareness (SSA) mission is the rigorous inclusion of uncertainty in the space surveillance network. The *proper characterization of uncertainty* in the orbital state of a space object is a common requirement to many SSA functions including tracking and data association, resolution of uncorrelated tracks (UCTs), conjunction analysis and probability of collision, sensor resource management, and anomaly detection. While tracking environments, such as air and missile defense, make extensive use of Gaussian and local linearity assumptions within algorithms for uncertainty management, space surveillance is inherently different due to long time gaps between updates, high misdetection rates, nonlinear and non-conservative dynamics, and non-Gaussian phenomena. The latter implies that "covariance realism" is not always sufficient. SSA also requires "uncertainty realism"; the proper characterization of both the state and covariance and all non-zero higher-order cumulants. In other words, a proper characterization of a space object's full state *probability density function (PDF)* is required. In order to provide a more statistically rigorous treatment of uncertainty in the space surveillance tracking environment and to better support the aforementioned SSA functions, a new class of multivariate PDFs are formulated which more accurately characterize the uncertainty of a space object's state or orbit. The new distribution contains a parameter set controlling the higher-order cumulants which gives the level sets a distinctive "banana" or "boomerang" shape and degenerates to a Gaussian in a suitable limit. Using the new class of PDFs within the general Bayesian nonlinear filter, the resulting filter prediction step (i.e., uncertainty propagation) is shown to have the *same computational cost as the traditional unscented Kalman filter* with the former able to maintain a proper characterization of the uncertainty for up to *ten

  6. Evaluation of perturbations in serum thyroid hormones during human pregnancy due to dietary iodide and perchlorate exposure using a biologically based dose-response model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumen, Annie; Mattie, David R; Fisher, Jeffrey W

    2013-06-01

    A biologically based dose-response model (BBDR) for the hypothalamic pituitary thyroid (HPT) axis was developed in the near-term pregnant mother and fetus. This model was calibrated to predict serum levels of iodide, total thyroxine (T4), free thyroxine (fT4), and total triiodothyronine (T3) in the mother and fetus for a range of dietary iodide intake. The model was extended to describe perchlorate, an environmental and food contaminant, that competes with the sodium iodide symporter protein for thyroidal uptake of iodide. Using this mode-of-action framework, simulations were performed to determine the daily ingestion rates of perchlorate that would be associated with hypothyroxinemia or onset of hypothyroidism for varying iodide intake. Model simulations suggested that a maternal iodide intake of 75 to 250 µg/day and an environmentally relevant exposure of perchlorate (~0.1 µg/kg/day) did not result in hypothyroxinemia or hypothyroidism. For a daily iodide-sufficient intake of 200 µg/day, the dose of perchlorate required to reduce maternal fT4 levels to a hypothyroxinemic state was estimated at 32.2 µg/kg/day. As iodide intake was lowered to 75 µg/day, the model simulated daily perchlorate dose required to cause hypothyroxinemia was reduced by eightfold. Similarly, the perchlorate intake rates associated with the onset of subclinical hypothyroidism ranged from 54.8 to 21.5 µg/kg/day for daily iodide intake of 250-75 µg/day. This BBDR-HPT axis model for pregnancy provides an example of a novel public health assessment tool that may be expanded to address other endocrine-active chemicals found in food and the environment.

  7. Visualizing Flow of Uncertainty through Analytical Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingcai; Yuan, Guo-Xun; Ma, Kwan-Liu

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty can arise in any stage of a visual analytics process, especially in data-intensive applications with a sequence of data transformations. Additionally, throughout the process of multidimensional, multivariate data analysis, uncertainty due to data transformation and integration may split, merge, increase, or decrease. This dynamic characteristic along with other features of uncertainty pose a great challenge to effective uncertainty-aware visualization. This paper presents a new framework for modeling uncertainty and characterizing the evolution of the uncertainty information through analytical processes. Based on the framework, we have designed a visual metaphor called uncertainty flow to visually and intuitively summarize how uncertainty information propagates over the whole analysis pipeline. Our system allows analysts to interact with and analyze the uncertainty information at different levels of detail. Three experiments were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and intuitiveness of our design.

  8. Estimating thyroid dose in pediatric CT exams from surface dose measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Senan, Rani; Mueller, Deborah L.; Hatab, Mustapha R.

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of estimating pediatric thyroid doses from CT using surface neck doses. Optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters were used to measure the neck surface dose of 25 children ranging in ages between one and three years old. The neck circumference for each child was measured. The relationship between obtained surface doses and thyroid dose was studied using acrylic phantoms of various sizes and with holes of different depths. The ratios of hole-to-surface doses were used to convert patients' surface dose to thyroid dose. ImPACT software was utilized to calculate thyroid dose after applying the appropriate age correction factors. A paired t-test was performed to compare thyroid doses from our approach and ImPACT. The ratio of thyroid to surface dose was found to be 1.1. Thyroid doses ranged from 20 to 80 mGy. Comparison showed no statistical significance (p = 0.18). In addition, the average of surface dose variation along the z-axis in helical scans was studied and found to range between 5% (in 10 cm diameter phantom/24 mm collimation/pitch 1.0) and 8% (in 16 cm diameter phantom/12 mm collimation/pitch 0.7). We conclude that surface dose is an acceptable predictor for pediatric thyroid dose from CT. The uncertainty due to surface dose variability may be reduced if narrower collimation is used with a pitch factor close to 1.0. Also, the results did not show any effect of thyroid depth on the measured dose.

  9. Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. von Hardenberg

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limited-area forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the meteorological uncertainty associated with large-scale synoptic conditions (represented by the ensemble of dynamical forecasts and of the uncertainty due to small-scale processes (represented by the set of fields generated by stochastic downscaling. We show that, in current operational configurations, small- and large-scale uncertainties have roughly the same weight. These results can be used to pinpoint the specific components of the prediction chain where a better estimate of forecast uncertainty is needed.

  10. Assessment of the dose received by students and staff in schools in the Rawalpindi region of Pakistan due to indoor radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahman, S U; Anwar, J [Department of Physics, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad (Pakistan); Matiullah [Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH), Nilore, Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2009-06-15

    Studies concerning measurements of indoor radon levels were carried out in 60 schools in the Rawalpindi region of Pakistan. In each school, six CR-39 based NRPB type radon detectors were installed and exposed to the indoor radon in two cycles (each of six months' duration). After exposure, the detectors were removed, etched in 6 M NaOH for 16 h at 80 deg. C, and the tracks were counted under an optical microscope. The measured track densities were then related to radon concentrations, from which the radiation doses were calculated. The observed radon concentrations varied from 15 to 140 Bq m{sup -3}, with an average activity concentration of 42.75 {+-} 9.28 Bq m{sup -3}. The mean annual radon effective dose equivalent was found to be 0.40 {+-} 0.09 mSv using an occupancy factor of 8 h day{sup -1}. Our results show that the indoor radon concentrations in the schools surveyed are within the permissible limits. (note)

  11. Assessment of the dose received by students and staff in schools in the Rawalpindi region of Pakistan due to indoor radon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, S U; Matiullah; Anwar, J

    2009-06-01

    Studies concerning measurements of indoor radon levels were carried out in 60 schools in the Rawalpindi region of Pakistan. In each school, six CR-39 based NRPB type radon detectors were installed and exposed to the indoor radon in two cycles (each of six months' duration). After exposure, the detectors were removed, etched in 6 M NaOH for 16 h at 80 degrees C, and the tracks were counted under an optical microscope. The measured track densities were then related to radon concentrations, from which the radiation doses were calculated. The observed radon concentrations varied from 15 to 140 Bq m(-3), with an average activity concentration of 42.75 +/- 9.28 Bq m(-3). The mean annual radon effective dose equivalent was found to be 0.40 +/- 0.09 mSv using an occupancy factor of 8 h day(-1). Our results show that the indoor radon concentrations in the schools surveyed are within the permissible limits.

  12. Dacryocystitis due to Sporothrix brasiliensis: a case report of a successful clinical and serological outcome with low-dose potassium iodide treatment and oculoplastic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Macedo, P Marques; Sztajnbok, D C N; Camargo, Z P; Rodrigues, A M; Lopes-Bezerra, L M; Bernardes-Engemann, A R; Orofino-Costa, R

    2015-04-01

    Sporothrix brasiliensis is the main species of the S. schenckii complex implicated in the zoonotic epidemics of sporotrichosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Epidemiological features have been already described, such as zoonotic transmission by cats and increased frequency of atypical clinical aspects. The involvement of the face by contact with cats is common in childhood; as a result, ophthalmic manifestations have increased. We report a case of acute dacryocystitis in a 9-year-old girl. A calmodulin-based molecular phylogeny was used to identify the agent as S. brasiliensis. This is a rare type of presentation, usually complicated with nasolacrimal duct occlusion. The patient was cured without sequelae after treatment with a low dose of saturated solution of potassium iodide and decompressive oculoplastic surgery. Therapeutic options and considerations of aetiological agents and serology are discussed.

  13. The parameters uncertainty inflation fallacy

    CERN Document Server

    Pernot, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    Statistical estimation of the prediction uncertainty of physical models is typically hindered by the inadequacy of these models due to various approximations they are built upon. The prediction errors due to model inadequacy can be handled either by correcting the model's results, or by adapting the model's parameters uncertainty to generate prediction uncertainty representative, in a way to be defined, of model inadequacy errors. The main advantage of the latter approach is its transferability to the prediction of other quantities of interest based on the same parameters. A critical review of state-of-the-art implementations of this approach in computational chemistry shows that it is biased, in the sense that it does not produce prediction uncertainty bands conforming with model inadequacy errors.

  14. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections.

  15. Control letters and uncertainties of the kerma patterns in air, dose absorbed in water and dose absorbed in air of the LSCD; Cartas de control e incertidumbres de los patrones de kerma en aire, dosis absorbida en agua y dosis absorbida en aire del LSCD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez R, M.T.; Tovar M, V.M.; Cejudo A, J. [ININ, 52045 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2005-12-15

    With the purpose of characterizing the component of uncertainty of long term of the patron ionization chambers of the LSCD, for the magnitudes: speed of kerma in air {kappa}{sub {alpha}}{sub {center_dot}}, dose speed absorbed in water D{alpha}{sub {center_dot}}, and speed absorbed dose in air D{alpha}{sub {center_dot}}, it use the technique of letters of control l-MR/S. This statistical technique it estimates the component of uncertainty of short term by means of the deviation standard inside groups {sigma}{sub {omega}} and that of long term by means of the standard deviation among groups {sigma}{sub {beta}}, being this it finishes an estimator of the stability of the patterns.The letters of control l-MR/S it construct for: i) {kappa}{sub {alpha}}{sub {center_dot}}, in radiation field of {sup 60}Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, secondary NE 2611 series 176, secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and Third PTW W30001 series 365. ii) D{alpha}),en radiation field of {sup 60}Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, Secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and tertiary PTW W30001 series 365. iii) I-MR/S with extrapolation chamber PTW primary pattern, measurement realizes in secondary patron fields of {sup 90}Sr-{sup 90}Y. The expanded uncertainty U it is calculated of agreement with the Guide of the ISO/BIPM being observed the following thing: a. In some the cases {sigma}{sub {beta}}, is the component of the U that more contributed to this. Therefore, it is necessary to settle down technical of sampling in those mensurations that allow to reduce the value of {sigma}{sub {beta}}. For example with sizes of subgroup {eta}{sub {approx}} 30 data, or with a number of subgroups {kappa}{sub {>=}}. That which is achieved automating the mensuration processes. b.The component of the temperature is also one of those that but they contribute to the U, of there the necessity of: to recover the tracking for this magnitude of it influences and to increase the precision in the

  16. Can reduction of uncertainties in cervix cancer brachytherapy potentially improve clinical outcome?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nesvacil, Nicole; Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C

    2016-01-01

    AIM: The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of different types and magnitudes of dosimetric uncertainties in cervix cancer brachytherapy (BT) on tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) curves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A dose-response simulation....../NTCP model. Systematic uncertainties of 3-20% and random uncertainties with a 5-30% standard deviation per BT fraction were analysed. RESULTS: Systematic dose uncertainties of 5% lead to a 1% decrease/increase of TCP/NTCP, while random uncertainties of 10% had negligible impact on the dose-response curve...... at clinically relevant dose levels for target and OAR. Random OAR dose uncertainties of 30% resulted in an NTCP increase of 3-4% for planned doses of 70-80Gy EQD2. CONCLUSION: TCP is robust to dosimetric uncertainties when dose prescription is in the more flat region of the dose-response curve at doses >75Gy...

  17. Comparison of second cancer risk due to out-of-field doses from 6-MV IMRT and proton therapy based on 6 pediatric patient treatment plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athar, Basit S.; Paganetti, Harald

    2010-01-01

    Background and Purpose This study compared 6-MV IMRT and proton therapy in terms of organ specific second cancer lifetime attributable risks (LARs) caused by scattered and secondary out-of-field radiation. Material and Methods Based on simulated organ doses, excess relative and excess absolute risk models were applied to assess organ-specific LARs. Two treatment sites (cranium and central spine) were considered involving 6 treatment volumes and 6 patient ages (9-month, 4-year, 8-year, 11-year, 14-year, and adult). Results The LARs for thyroid cancer from a 6 cm diameter field treating a brain lesion in a 4-year old patient were estimated to be 1.1% and 0.3% in passive proton therapy and IMRT, respectively. However, estimated LARs for bladder cancer, more than 25 cm from the field edge for the same patient and treatment field, were estimated to be 0.2% and 0.02% from IMRT and proton therapy, respectively. Risks for proton beam scanning was found to be an order of magnitude smaller compared to passive proton therapy. Conclusion In terms of out-of-field risks, IMRT offers advantage close to the primary field and an increasing advantage for passive proton therapy is noticed with increasing distance to the field. Scanning proton beam therapy shows the lowest risks. PMID:21159398

  18. Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Feng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time–energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit −log2⁡c. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.

  19. Adaptation requirements due to anatomical changes in free-breathing and deep-inspiration breath-hold for standard and dose-escalated radiotherapy of lung cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sibolt, Patrik; Ottosson, Wiviann; Sjöström, David

    2015-01-01

    to investigate the need for adaptation due to anatomical changes, for both standard (ST) and DE plans in free-breathing (FB) and DIBH. Material and methods. The effect of tumor shrinkage (TS), pleural effusion (PE) and atelectasis was investigated for patients and for a CIRS thorax phantom. Sixteen patients were...... and had no effect for DIBH. Conclusion. Phantom simulations provided potential adaptation action levels for PE and TS. For the more complex patient geometry, individual assessment of the dosimetric impact is recommended for both ST and DE plans in DIBH as well as in FB. However, DIBH was found...

  20. Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Hark, Frank

    2016-01-01

    NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk, and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results, and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods, such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty, are rendered obsolete, since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper describes how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

  1. Modeling and inverse problems in the presence of uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, H T; Thompson, W Clayton

    2014-01-01

    Modeling and Inverse Problems in the Presence of Uncertainty collects recent research-including the authors' own substantial projects-on uncertainty propagation and quantification. It covers two sources of uncertainty: where uncertainty is present primarily due to measurement errors and where uncertainty is present due to the modeling formulation itself. After a useful review of relevant probability and statistical concepts, the book summarizes mathematical and statistical aspects of inverse problem methodology, including ordinary, weighted, and generalized least-squares formulations. It then

  2. Long-term, low-dose tigecycline to treat relapsing bloodstream infection due to KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae after major hepatic surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Morelli

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A 68-year-old male underwent a right hepatectomy, resection of the biliary convergence, and a left hepatic jejunostomy for a Klatskin tumour. The postoperative course was complicated by biliary abscesses with relapsing bloodstream infections due to Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-Kp. A 2-week course of combination antibiotic therapy failed to provide source control and the bacteraemia relapsed. Success was obtained with a regimen of tigecycline 100 mg daily for 2 months, followed by tigecycline 50 mg daily for 6 months, then 50 mg every 48 h for 3 months. No side effects were reported.

  3. 翼型模型几何误差对气动性能影响的自动微分分析方法%An automatic differentiation method for uncertainty analysis due to airfoil configuration variation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐林程; 王刚; 武洁; 叶正寅

    2014-01-01

    基于自动微分原理和 NS 方程有限体积方法建立了一套翼型敏感性导数计算方法和程序,可以一次性获得翼型不同气动力系数、压力分布对模型几何外形误差的敏感性导数和不确定度。计算结果表明,在跨声速范围内,即使翼型的外形误差只有63μm(弦长1m),也可以给翼型压力分布带来0.312(以来流动压为参考)量级的不确定度,而激波处的流动最为敏感。这种自动微分方法对于分析数值模拟结果的分散性、风洞试验结果的分散性或不确定性具有很好的指导意义。%Focused on the quantification of the uncertainties of areodynamics performance of airfoils with respect to geometry error,with a set of CFD program based on finite volume algorithm solving the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations with S-A turbulent model,adopting automatic differentiation method to reform the program simultaniously,all kinds of sensitive derivatives,uncertainties of all kinds of aerody-namic coefficients and pressure coefficients distribution resulting from geometry error could be obtained in one course of computation.As the computational results show,even if the geometry error is only 63 microns (while the length of chord is 1 meter),the pressure distribution of the walls could be influenced obviously with uncertainty quantity reaching 0.312 (taking dynamic pressure of the flow as reference)for an airfois in transonic flow,moreover,pressure attached to the place where shock wave stationed bears peak uncertainty. the results of method of automatic differentiation account for the dispersity of results of numeric simulations and wind tunnel experiments well.

  4. Variability of a peripheral dose among various linac geometries for second cancer risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joosten, A; Bochud, F; Baechler, S; Moeckli, R [University Institute for Radiation Physics, CHUV and University of Lausanne, Grand-Pre 1, CH-1007 Lausanne (Switzerland); Levi, F [Cancer Epidemiology Unit and Cancer Registries of Vaud and Neuchatel, Institute of Social and Preventive Medecine (IUMSP) and University of Lausanne, CHUV-Falaises 1, CH-1011 Lausanne (Switzerland); Mirimanoff, R-O, E-mail: raphael.moeckli@chuv.ch [Radio-Oncology Department, CHUV and University of Lausanne, Bugnon 21, CH-1011 Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2011-08-21

    Second cancer risk assessment for radiotherapy is controversial due to the large uncertainties of the dose-response relationship. This could be improved by a better assessment of the peripheral doses to healthy organs in future epidemiological studies. In this framework, we developed a simple Monte Carlo (MC) model of the Siemens Primus 6 MV linac for both open and wedged fields that we then validated with dose profiles measured in a water tank up to 30 cm from the central axis. The differences between the measured and calculated doses were comparable to other more complex MC models and never exceeded 50%. We then compared our simple MC model with the peripheral dose profiles of five different linacs with different collimation systems. We found that the peripheral dose between two linacs could differ up to a factor of 9 for small fields (5 x 5 cm{sup 2}) and up to a factor of 10 for wedged fields. Considering that an uncertainty of 50% in dose estimation could be acceptable in the context of risk assessment, the MC model can be used as a generic model for large open fields ({>=}10 x 10 cm{sup 2}) only. The uncertainties in peripheral doses should be considered in future epidemiological studies when designing the width of the dose bins to stratify the risk as a function of the dose.

  5. The Precautionary Principle and Statistical Approaches to Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

  6. The Precautionary Principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

  7. A Probability Approach to the Study on Uncertainty Effects on Gamma Index Evaluations in Radiation Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutanda Henríquez, Francisco; Vargas Castrillón, Silvia

    2011-01-01

    Two datasets of points of known spatial positions and an associated absorbed dose value are often compared for quality assurance purposes in External Beam Radiation Therapy (EBRT). Some problems usually arise regarding the pass fail criterion to accept both datasets as close enough for practical purposes. Instances of this kind of comparisons are fluence or dose checks for intensity modulated radiation therapy, modelling of a treatment unit in a treatment planning system, and so forth. The gamma index is a figure of merit that can be obtained from both datasets; it is widely used, as well as other indices, as part of a comparison procedure. However, it is recognized that false negatives may take place (there are acceptable cases where a certain number of points do not pass the test) due in part to computation and experimental uncertainty. This work utilizes mathematical methods to analyse comparisons, so that uncertainty can be taken into account. Therefore, false rejections due to uncertainty do not take place and there is no need to expand tolerances to take uncertainty into account. The methods provided are based on the rules of uncertainty propagation and help obtain rigorous pass/fail criteria, based on experimental information. PMID:21331266

  8. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    The quality of analytical results is expressed by their uncertainty, as it is estimated on the basis of an uncertainty budget; little effort is, however, often spent on ascertaining the quality of the uncertainty budget. The uncertainty budget is based on circumstantial or historical data, and th...

  9. Uncertainties encountered in implementation of adaptive planning with in vivo dosimeters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studenski, M T; Gardner, S J; Den, R B

    2015-01-01

    Under a previously approved institutional review board protocol for prostate cancer patients, implanted metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor dosimeters (dose verification system, Sicel Technologies) were used for measurement of the in vivo delivered daily dose. This dosimetric information provided the ability to adapt the plan if the measured doses did not match the dose expected from the planning system. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the dosimeters, the decision to adapt the treatment plan was made only if readings differed by more than 7 % for three consecutive days. To validate this method, we acquired daily cone beam computed tomography images for five patients, and the dose delivered to the dosimeters was calculated by use of (1) an automated procedure (MIM Maestro, MIM Software) and (2) the treatment planning system (XIO, Elekta). 72 % of the doses calculated automatically fell within 1 % of the doses calculated in the planning system, and 99 % agreed within 2 %. When compared to the calculated dose, 53 % of the in vivo measurements fell within 3 % of the calculated dose, 80 % fell within 5 %, and 9.8 % were greater than 7 %, but never on three consecutive days. The measured doses agreed reasonably well with the calculated doses, supporting the decision to adapt the plan only if there were discrepancies of more than 7 % over three consecutive days. Even with the inherent uncertainty in the dosimeters, this adaptive planning method can detect delivery inaccuracies that would not otherwise be caught with the use of only daily image guidance or other dose calculation surrogates.

  10. Seizures due to high dose camphor ingestion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekin, Hande Gazeteci; Gökben, Sarenur; Serdaroğlu, Gül

    2015-12-01

    Camphor is a cyclic ketone of the hydro aromatic terpene group. Today it is frequently used as a prescription or non-prescription topical antitussive, analgesic, anesthetic and antipruritic agent. Camphor which is considered an innocent drug by parents and physicians is a common household item which can lead to severe poisoning in children even when taken in small amounts. Neurotoxicity in the form of seizures can ocur soon after ingestion. A two-year old female patient who presented with a complaint of generalized tonic-clonic seizures after oral ingestion of camphor is presented.

  11. Factors for converting dose measured in polystyrene phantoms to dose reported in water phantoms for incident proton beams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moyers, M. F.; Vatnitsky, A. S.; Vatnitsky, S. M. [Loma Linda University Medical Center, Loma Linda, California 92354 (United States); Guthrie Clinic/Robert Packard Hospital, Sayre, Pennsylvania 18840 (United States); EBG MedAustron, Wiener Neustadt, Austria A2700 (Austria)

    2011-10-15

    Purpose: Previous dosimetry protocols allowed calibrations of proton beamline dose monitors to be performed in plastic phantoms. Nevertheless, dose determinations were referenced to absorbed dose-to-muscle or absorbed dose-to-water. The IAEA Code of Practice TRS 398 recommended that dose calibrations be performed with ionization chambers only in water phantoms because plastic-to-water dose conversion factors were not available with sufficient accuracy at the time of its writing. These factors are necessary, however, to evaluate the difference in doses delivered to patients if switching from calibration in plastic to a protocol that only allows calibration in water. Methods: This work measured polystyrene-to-water dose conversion factors for this purpose. Uncertainties in the results due to temperature, geometry, and chamber effects were minimized by using special experimental set-up procedures. The measurements were validated by Monte Carlo simulations. Results: At the peak of non-range-modulated beams, measured polystyrene-to-water factors ranged from 1.015 to 1.024 for beams with ranges from 36 to 315 mm. For beams with the same ranges and medium sized modulations, the factors ranged from 1.005 to 1.019. The measured results were used to generate tables of polystyrene-to-water dose conversion factors. Conclusions: The dose conversion factors can be used at clinical proton facilities to support beamline and patient specific dose per monitor unit calibrations performed in polystyrene phantoms.

  12. Reply to the 'Comment on "Enhancement in the production of nucleating clusters due to dimethylamine and large uncertainties in the thermochemistry of amine-enhanced nucleation"' by Kupiainen-Maatta et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadykto, Alexey B.; Herb, Jason; Yu, Fangqun; Nazarenko, Ekaterina S.; Xu, Yisheng

    2015-03-01

    We analyze the arguments of Kupiainen-Maatta et al. and show clearly that our study is free of 'misrepresentations of earlier studies' and that our conclusions are particularly well-justified. We demonstrate why and how the B3RICC2 (B3LYP/CBSB7//RI-CC2/aug-cc-pv(d+T)z) method criticized in our work overestimates the stability of sulfuric acid and sulfuric acid-base clusters compared to conventional DFT and ab initio methods and experimental data and fails to reproduce base dependencies of nucleation and cluster formation rates. We also show that the thermochemistry predicted by the conventional PW91PW91 method is consistent with experiments and can be used for simulations of atmospheric nucleation rates. We discuss uncertainties in simulations and experimental data and their impacts on conclusions about the nature of amine-enhanced nucleation and conclude that further high-resolution laboratory experiments, computational studies and measurements of atmospheric amine concentrations are needed in order to determine the extent, at which amines impact atmospheric nucleation.

  13. Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard a...

  14. Uncertainties in Site Amplification Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, C. H.; Bonilla, F.; Hartzell, S.

    2004-12-01

    Typically geophysical profiles (layer thickness, velocity, density, Q) and dynamic soil properties (modulus and damping versus strain curves) are used with appropriate input ground motions in a soil response computer code to estimate site amplification. Uncertainties in observations can be used to generate a distribution of possible site amplifications. The biggest sources of uncertainty in site amplifications estimates are the uncertainties in (1) input ground motions, (2) shear-wave velocities (Vs), (3) dynamic soil properties, (4) soil response code used, and (5) dynamic pore pressure effects. A study of site amplification was conducted for the 1 km thick Mississippi embayment sediments beneath Memphis, Tennessee (see USGS OFR 04-1294 on the web). In this study, the first three sources of uncertainty resulted in a combined coefficient of variation of 10 to 60 percent. The choice of soil response computer program can lead to uncertainties in median estimates of +/- 50 percent. Dynamic pore pressure effects due to the passing of seismic waves in saturated soft sediments are normally not considered in site-amplification studies and can contribute further large uncertainties in site amplification estimates. The effects may range from dilatancy and high-frequency amplification (such as observed at some sites during the 1993 Kushiro-Oki, Japan and 2001 Nisqually, Washington earthquakes) or general soil failure and deamplification of ground motions (such as observed at Treasure Island during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake). Examples of two case studies using geotechnical data for downhole arrays in Kushiro, Japan and the Wildlife Refuge, California using one dynamic code, NOAH, will be presented as examples of modeling uncertainties associated with these effects. Additionally, an example of inversion for estimates of in-situ dilatancy-related geotechnical modeling parameters will be presented for the Kushiro, Japan site.

  15. Coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data on capture zone uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A.; Tsai, F.T.-C.; White, C.D.; Willson, C.S.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigates capture zone uncertainty that relates to the coupled semivariogram uncertainty of hydrogeological and geophysical data. Semivariogram uncertainty is represented by the uncertainty in structural parameters (range, sill, and nugget). We used the beta distribution function to derive the prior distributions of structural parameters. The probability distributions of structural parameters were further updated through the Bayesian approach with the Gaussian likelihood functions. Cokriging of noncollocated pumping test data and electrical resistivity data was conducted to better estimate hydraulic conductivity through autosemivariograms and pseudo-cross-semivariogram. Sensitivities of capture zone variability with respect to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, porosity and aquifer thickness were analyzed using ANOVA. The proposed methodology was applied to the analysis of capture zone uncertainty at the Chicot aquifer in Southwestern Louisiana, where a regional groundwater flow model was developed. MODFLOW-MODPATH was adopted to delineate the capture zone. The ANOVA results showed that both capture zone area and compactness were sensitive to hydraulic conductivity variation. We concluded that the capture zone uncertainty due to the semivariogram uncertainty is much higher than that due to the kriging uncertainty for given semivariograms. In other words, the sole use of conditional variances of kriging may greatly underestimate the flow response uncertainty. Semivariogram uncertainty should also be taken into account in the uncertainty analysis. ?? 2008 ASCE.

  16. A method for determining an indicator of effective dose calculation due to inhalation of Radon and its progeny from in vivo measurements; Um metodo para determinar um indicador para calcular dose efetiva devida a inalacao de Radonio e seus descendentes utilizando medicoes in vivo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estrada, Julio Jose da Silva

    1994-07-01

    Direct measurement of the absolved dose to lung tissue from inhalation of radon and its progeny is not possible and must be calculated using dosimetric models, taking into consideration the several parameters upon which the dose calculation depends. To asses the dose due to inhalation of radon and its progeny, it is necessary to estimate the cumulative exposure. Historically, this has been done using WLM values estimated with measurements of radon concentration in air. The radon concentration in air varies significantly, however, in space with time, and the exposed individual is also constantly moving around. This makes it almost impossible to obtain a precise estimate of an individual's inhalation exposure. This work describes a pilot study to calculate lung dose from the deposition of radon progeny, via estimates of cumulative exposure derived from in vivo measurements of {sup 210} Pb, in subjects exposed to above-average radon and its progeny concentrations in their home environments. The measurements were performed in a whole body counter. With this technique, the exposed individuals become, in affect, their own samplers and dosimeters and the estimate of cumulative exposure is not affected by the variation of the atmospheric concentration of radon and its progeny in time and space. Forty individuals identified as living in homes with radon levels ranging from about 740 Bq/m{sup 3} to 150.000 Bq/m{sup 3} were measured. Also, additional 34 measurements were made on personnel from NYUMC/NIEM who live in a residential area surrounding the laboratory in which the levels of radon have been shown to be at below average values. To realize these measurements a methodology was developed to determine the subject's background, using a head phantom made with a cubic plastic container containing known amounts of potassium and calcium dissolved in four liters of water. The effective doses calculated from the in vivo measurements are compared to effective doses

  17. Evaluation of dose due to the liberation of the radioactive content present in systems of final disposal of radioactive residues; Evaluacion de la dosis debida a la liberacion del contenido radiactivo presente en sistemas de disposicion final de residuos radiactivos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amado, V.; Lopez, F. [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear, Av. Del Libertador 8250, Ciudad Autonoma de Buenos Aires (C1429BNP) (Argentina)]. e-mail: vamado@cae.arn.gov.ar

    2006-07-01

    The disposal systems of radioactive residuals well-known as repositories near to the surface, are used to dispose residuals that can contain high concentrations of radionuclides of period of short semi disintegration, which they would decay at levels radiologically insignificant in some few decades or in some centuries: and acceptably low concentrations of radionuclides of period of long semi disintegration. The dose that would receive the critic group due to these systems it could be increased by cause of discreet events that affect the foreseen retard time, or by the gradual degradation of the barriers. To this last case it contributes the presence of water, because it implies leaching and dissolution that can give place to radionuclide concentrations in the underground water greater to the prospective ones. The dosimetric evaluation is important because it offers useful objective information to decide if a given repository is adjusted to the purposes of its design and it fulfills the regulatory requirements. In this work a simplified evaluation of the dose that would receive the critic group due to the liberation of contained radionuclides in a hypothetical system of final disposition of radioactive residuals is presented. For it, they are considered representative values of the usually contained activities in this type of systems and they are carried out some approaches of the source term. The study is developed in two stages. In the first one, by means of the Radionuclide pollutant scattering pattern in phreatic aquifers (DRAF) it is considered the scattering of the pollutants in the phreatic aquifer, until the discharge point in the course of the nearest surface water. This model, developed originally in the regulatory branch of the National Commission of Argentine Atomic Energy (CNEA); it solves the transport equation of solutes in porous means in three dimensions, by the finite differences method having in account the soil retention and the radioactive

  18. Parton Distribution Function Uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Giele, Walter T.; Kosower, David A.; Giele, Walter T.; Keller, Stephane A.; Kosower, David A.

    2001-01-01

    We present parton distribution functions which include a quantitative estimate of its uncertainties. The parton distribution functions are optimized with respect to deep inelastic proton data, expressing the uncertainties as a density measure over the functional space of parton distribution functions. This leads to a convenient method of propagating the parton distribution function uncertainties to new observables, now expressing the uncertainty as a density in the prediction of the observable. New measurements can easily be included in the optimized sets as added weight functions to the density measure. Using the optimized method nowhere in the analysis compromises have to be made with regard to the treatment of the uncertainties.

  19. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  20. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  1. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  2. Uncertainties in Cup Anemometer Calibrations. Type A and Type B uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eecen, P.J. Eecen; De Noord, M. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

    2005-06-01

    ECN Wind Energy is accredited according ISO 17025 to perform power performance measurements of wind turbines following IEC 61400-12 and Measnet. The typical results of these measurements are measured power curves of the wind turbines. These curves show the electrical power versus the wind speed. Part of the power performance analysis is the uncertainty analysis. In power performance measurements according IEC 61400-12 or Measnet, the wind speed is measured using cup anemometers. The uncertainty of the wind speed measurements depends among others on the calibration uncertainty. The cup-anemometer calibration uncertainty is divided in Type A and Type B uncertainty. The Type A uncertainty is the statistical uncertainty of the wind speed measurement and can be calculated from the wind speed measurements. The Type B uncertainty includes all uncertainties that do not have a statistical background. For example, these are uncertainties due to temperature changes, air pressure changes, transducer gain influences, and digital conversion influences, etc. This document presents an overview of the type B uncertainties of a cup anemometer calibration following the Measnet 'Cup Anemometer Calibration Procedure, Version 1, September 1997' and the proposal for the IEC 61400-12 that is currently under vote. For the calculations, the numbers applying to the DEWI wind tunnel are used throughout the report. It is shown that the cup anemometer in wind tunnels has unstable behaviour due to the turbulent wakes of the cups. An analysis of uncertainties due to regression in cup anemometer calibrations is presented and compared to the standard uncertainty.

  3. Spatial dependence and origin of the ambient dose due to neutron activation processes in linear accelerators; Dependencia espacial y origen de la dosis ambiental debeda a procesos de activacion neutronica en aceleradores lineales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz Egea, E.; Sanchez Carrascal, M.; Torres Pozas, S.; Monja Ray, P. de la; Perez Molina, J. L.; Madan Rodriguez, C.; Luque Japon, L.; Morera Molina, A.; Hernandez Perez, A.; Barquero Bravo, Y.; Morengo Pedagna, I.; Oliva Gordillo, M. C.; Martin Olivar, R.

    2011-07-01

    In order to try to determine the high dose in the bunker of a Linear Accelerator clinical use trying to measure the spatial dependence of the same from the isocenter to gateway to the board cheeking to establish the origin of it. This dose measurements performed with an ionization chamber at different locations inside the bunker after an irradiation of 400 Monitor Units verifying the dose rate per minute for an hour, and accumulating the dose received during that period of time.

  4. Towards a different attitude to uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Pe'er

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES at the global level.

  5. Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

  6. Radioecological assessment of marine environment: complexity, sensitivity and uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iosjpe, Mikhail [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    A compartment modelling approach is widely used to evaluate the consequences after the release of radionuclides into the marine environment, by taking into account: (i) dispersion of radionuclides in water and sediment phases, (ii) bioaccumulation of radionuclides in biota and (iii) dose assessments for marine organisms and human populations. The NRPA box model includes site-specific information for the compartments, advection of radioactivity between compartments, sedimentation, diffusion of radioactivity through pore water in sediment, resuspension, mixing due to bioturbation, particle mixing, a burial process for radionuclides in deep sediment layers and radioactive decay. The contamination of biota is calculated from the known radionuclide concentrations in filtered seawater in the different water regions. Doses to man are calculated on the basis of seafood consumption, in accordance with available data for seafood catches and assumptions about human diet in the respective areas. Dose to biota is calculated on the basis of radionuclide concentrations in marine organisms, water and sediment, using dose conversion factors. This modelling approach requires the use of a large set of parameters (up to several thousand), some of which have high uncertainties linked to them. This work consists of two parts: A radioecological assessment as described above, and a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, which was applied to two release scenarios: (i) a potential accident with a nuclear submarine and (ii) unit uniform atmospheric deposition to selected marine areas. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is based on the calculation of local and global sensitivity indexes, and then compare this approach to the Monte-Carlo Methods. The simulations clearly demonstrate the complexities encountered when using the compartment modelling approach. It is shown that the results can strongly depend on the time being analyzed. For example, the change of a given parameter may either

  7. Radiation Leukemogenesis: Applying Basic Science of Epidemiological Estimates of Low Dose Risks and Dose-Rate Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoel, D. G.

    1998-11-01

    The next stage of work has been to examine more closely the A-bomb leukemia data which provides the underpinnings of the risk estimation of CML in the above mentioned manuscript. The paper by Hoel and Li (Health Physics 75:241-50) shows how the linear-quadratic model has basic non-linearities at the low dose region for the leukemias including CML. Pierce et. al., (Radiation Research 123:275-84) have developed distributions for the uncertainty in the estimated exposures of the A-bomb cohort. Kellerer, et. al., (Radiation and Environmental Biophysics 36:73-83) has further considered possible errors in the estimated neutron values and with changing RBE values with dose and has hypothesized that the tumor response due to gamma may not be linear. We have incorporated his neutron model and have constricted new A-bomb doses based on his model adjustments. The Hoel and Li dose response analysis has also been applied using the Kellerer neutron dose adjustments for the leukemias. Finally, both Pierce's dose uncertainties and Kellerer neutron adjustments are combined as well as the varying RBE with dose as suggested by Rossi and Zaider and used for leukemia dose-response analysis. First the results of Hoel and Li showing a significantly improved fit of the linear-quadratic dose response by the inclusion of a threshold (i.e. low-dose nonlinearity) persisted. This work has been complete for both solid tumor as well as leukemia for both mortality as well as incidence data. The results are given in the manuscript described below which has been submitted to Health Physics.

  8. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Paul; Heinonen, Teiko; Lahti, Pekka

    2007-01-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is usually taken to express a limitation of operational possibilities imposed by quantum mechanics. Here we demonstrate that the full content of this principle also includes its positive role as a condition ensuring that mutually exclusive experimental options can be reconciled if an appropriate trade-off is accepted. The uncertainty principle is shown to appear in three manifestations, in the form of uncertainty relations: for the widths of the position and...

  9. Estimation of the Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, L.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2013-01-01

    Current models to estimate radiation risk use the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort that received high doses and high dose rates of radiation. Transferring risks from these high dose rates to the low doses and dose rates received by astronauts in space is a source of uncertainty in our risk calculations. The solid cancer models recommended by BEIR VII [1], UNSCEAR [2], and Preston et al [3] is fitted adequately by a linear dose response model, which implies that low doses and dose rates would be estimated the same as high doses and dose rates. However animal and cell experiments imply there should be curvature in the dose response curve for tumor induction. Furthermore animal experiments that directly compare acute to chronic exposures show lower increases in tumor induction than acute exposures. A dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) has been estimated and applied to transfer risks from the high doses and dose rates of the LSS cohort to low doses and dose rates such as from missions in space. The BEIR VII committee [1] combined DDREF estimates using the LSS cohort and animal experiments using Bayesian methods for their recommendation for a DDREF value of 1.5 with uncertainty. We reexamined the animal data considered by BEIR VII and included more animal data and human chromosome aberration data to improve the estimate for DDREF. Several experiments chosen by BEIR VII were deemed inappropriate for application to human risk models of solid cancer risk. Animal tumor experiments performed by Ullrich et al [4], Alpen et al [5], and Grahn et al [6] were analyzed to estimate the DDREF. Human chromosome aberration experiments performed on a sample of astronauts within NASA were also available to estimate the DDREF. The LSS cohort results reported by BEIR VII were combined with the new radiobiology results using Bayesian methods.

  10. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  11. [Ethics, empiricism and uncertainty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porz, R; Zimmermann, H; Exadaktylos, A K

    2011-01-01

    Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  12. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  13. The face of uncertainty eats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, Rebecca L W

    2011-09-01

    The idea that foods rich in fat and sugar may be addictive has generated much interest, as well as controversy, among both scientific and lay communities. Recent research indicates that fatty and sugary food in-and-of itself is not addictive. Rather, the food and the context in which it is consumed interact to produce an addiction-like state. One of the contexts that appears to be important is the intermittent opportunity to consume foods rich in fat and sugar in environments where food is plentiful. Animal research indicates that, under these conditions, intake of the fatty sugary food escalates across time and binge-type behavior develops. However, the mechanisms that account for the powerful effect of intermittency on ingestive behavior have only begun to be elucidated. In this review, it is proposed that intermittency stimulates appetitive behavior that is associated with uncertainty regarding what, when, and how much of the highly palatable food to consume. Uncertainty may stimulate consumption of optional fatty and sugary treats due to differential firing of midbrain dopamine neurons, activation of the stress axis, and involvement of orexin signaling. In short, uncertainty may produce an aversive state that bingeing on palatable food can alleviate, however temporarily. "Food addiction" may not be "addiction" to food at all; it may be a response to uncertainty within environments of food abundance.

  14. Entanglement and discord assisted entropic uncertainty relations under decoherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, ChunMei; Chen, ZhiHua; Ma, ZhiHao; Severini, Simone; Serafini, Alessio

    2014-09-01

    The uncertainty principle is a crucial aspect of quantum mechanics. It has been shown that quantum entanglement as well as more general notions of correlations, such as quantum discord, can relax or tighten the entropic uncertainty relation in the presence of an ancillary system. We explored the behaviour of entropic uncertainty relations for system of two qubits-one of which subjects to several forms of independent quantum noise, in both Markovian and non-Markovian regimes. The uncertainties and their lower bounds, identified by the entropic uncertainty relations, increase under independent local unital Markovian noisy channels, but they may decrease under non-unital channels. The behaviour of the uncertainties (and lower bounds) exhibit periodical oscillations due to correlation dynamics under independent non-Markovian reservoirs. In addition, we compare different entropic uncertainty relations in several special cases and find that discord-tightened entropic uncertainty relations offer in general a better estimate of the uncertainties in play.

  15. Visualizing large-scale uncertainty in astrophysical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongwei; Fu, Chi-Wing; Li, Yinggang; Hanson, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    Visualization of uncertainty or error in astrophysical data is seldom available in simulations of astronomical phenomena, and yet almost all rendered attributes possess some degree of uncertainty due to observational error. Uncertainties associated with spatial location typically vary signicantly with scale and thus introduce further complexity in the interpretation of a given visualization. This paper introduces effective techniques for visualizing uncertainty in large-scale virtual astrophysical environments. Building upon our previous transparently scalable visualization architecture, we develop tools that enhance the perception and comprehension of uncertainty across wide scale ranges. Our methods include a unified color-coding scheme for representing log-scale distances and percentage errors, an ellipsoid model to represent positional uncertainty, an ellipsoid envelope model to expose trajectory uncertainty, and a magic-glass design supporting the selection of ranges of log-scale distance and uncertainty parameters, as well as an overview mode and a scalable WIM tool for exposing the magnitudes of spatial context and uncertainty.

  16. Uncertainty Assessment on Failure Accident of Voltage-Sensitive Equipment Due to Voltage Sag by Maximum Hybrid Entropy%敏感设备电压暂降失效事件不确定性的最大混合熵评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪颖; 肖先勇; 杨达

    2012-01-01

    敏感设备电压暂降失效事件是混合不确定事件,对其评估需考虑混合不确定性.以混合熵作为评价测度,建立敏感设备电压暂降失效事件不确定性的最大混合熵评估模型,并用以逆积法为基础的多阶段改进近似规划法进行模型求解.在评估过程中,将混合不确定性分解为随机性、模糊性和两者的交叉不确定性,并用随机商、模糊熵和交叉熵进行量化.以计算机(personal computer,PC)为例,考虑到PC机在电压暂降发生前可能处于全速、空载和正常等运行状态,电压暂降发生后可能出现完全死机、运算出错和“假死”等不同严重程度的失效状态,对实测样本进行评估,并与概率法、模糊法比较,结果证明,该方法所得结果客观、可行,克服了现有方法过估计或欠估计等不足,结果更符合实际.%The failure accident of voltage-sensitive equipments due to voltage sag is a hybrid uncertainty accident. Taking hybrid entropy as assessment measure a maximum hybrid entropy-based uncertainty assessment model for failure accident of voltage-sensitive equipments due to voltage sag is established and solved by multi-stage improved approximate programming. During the assessment the hybrid uncertainty is decomposed to stochastic uncertainty, fuzzy uncertainty and the crossed certainty of the both, and these uncertainties are quantized by stochastic entropy, fuzzy entropy and crossed entropy. Taking personal computer (PC) as the case and considering possible operation conditions of PC before the occurrence of voltage sag, namely full speed running, no-load and normal operation, after the occurrence of voltage sag following failure states in different severities such as PC system halt, calculation error and false system halt may occur. The measured samples are assessed and the assessment results are compared with those assessed by probabilistic assessment and fuzzy assessment. Comparison results show that

  17. Feedback versus uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Nooyen, R.R.P.; Hrachowitz, M.; Kolechkina, A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of in

  18. Chance and Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Capel, H.W.; Cramer, J.S.; Estevez-Uscanga, O.

    1995-01-01

    'Uncertainty and chance' is a subject with a broad span, in that there is no academic discipline or walk of life that is not beset by uncertainty and chance. In this book a range of approaches is represented by authors from varied disciplines: natural sciences, mathematics, social sciences and medic

  19. Guide for Uncertainty Communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644398; Kloprogge, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644312; Petersen, A.C.; Janssen, P.H.M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489

    2013-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty, in terms of analysis and communication, is an important and distinct topic for PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Without paying adequate attention to the role and implications of uncertainty, research and assessment results may be of limited value and could

  20. Computing with Epistemic Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    modified the input uncertainties in any way. And by avoiding the need for simulation, various assumptions and selection of specific sampling...strategies that may affect results are also avoided . According with the Principle of Maximum Uncertainty , epistemic intervals represent the highest input...

  1. Using dynamical uncertainty models estimating uncertainty bounds on power plant performance prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Stoustrup, Jakob; Mataji, B.

    2007-01-01

    Predicting the performance of large scale plants can be difficult due to model uncertainties etc, meaning that one can be almost certain that the prediction will diverge from the plant performance with time. In this paper output multiplicative uncertainty models are used as dynamical models of th...... models, is applied to two different sets of measured plant data. The computed uncertainty bounds cover the measured plant output, while the nominal prediction is outside these uncertainty bounds for some samples in these examples.  ......Predicting the performance of large scale plants can be difficult due to model uncertainties etc, meaning that one can be almost certain that the prediction will diverge from the plant performance with time. In this paper output multiplicative uncertainty models are used as dynamical models...... of the prediction error. These proposed dynamical uncertainty models result in an upper and lower bound on the predicted performance of the plant. The dynamical uncertainty models are used to estimate the uncertainty of the predicted performance of a coal-fired power plant. The proposed scheme, which uses dynamical...

  2. Taking into account absorbed doses in tooth enamel due to internal irradiation of human body by radioactive cesium isotopes at analysis EPR dosimetry data: Calculation by Monte-Carlo method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borysheva, N. [Medical Radiological Research Center, Korolyov str., 4, Obninsk 249020 (Russian Federation); Ivannikov, A. [Medical Radiological Research Center, Korolyov str., 4, Obninsk 249020 (Russian Federation)], E-mail: Ivannikov-Alexander@yandex.ru; Tikunov, D.; Orlenko, S.; Skvortsov, V.; Stepanenko, V. [Medical Radiological Research Center, Korolyov str., 4, Obninsk 249020 (Russian Federation); Hoshi, M. [Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8553 (Japan)

    2007-07-15

    By Monte-Carlo simulation of ionizing particles transport, for a realistic mathematical phantom of a man supplemented by a dental region, absorbed doses in teeth enamel and whole body doses are calculated for cases of internal irradiation by {sup 137}Cs and {sup 134}Cs isotopes incorporated in the human body resulted from staying in radioactive contaminated territory. It is shown that dose in enamel constitutes (40{+-}4)% and (59{+-}6)% of whole body dose resulted from the decay of {sup 137}Cs and {sup 134}Cs isotopes, respectively. The results of calculations may be used for conversion of absorbed dose in enamel obtained by the tooth enamel EPR spectroscopy method to whole body dose for dosimetric investigation of population of territories contaminated by the radioactive cesium, which is specific for the Chernobyl accident.

  3. Uncertainty theory. 2. ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu Baoding [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Uncertainty Theory Lab.

    2007-07-01

    Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, and countable subadditivity axioms. The goal of uncertainty theory is to study the behavior of uncertain phenomena such as fuzziness and randomness. The main topics include probability theory, credibility theory, and chance theory. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. More importantly, the chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students in the field of mathematics, information science, operations research, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, and management science will find this work a stimulating and useful reference. (orig.)

  4. Economic uncertainty and econophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinckus, Christophe

    2009-10-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a methodological link between econophysics and economics. I will study a key notion of both fields: uncertainty and the ways of thinking about it developed by the two disciplines. After having presented the main economic theories of uncertainty (provided by Knight, Keynes and Hayek), I show how this notion is paradoxically excluded from the economic field. In economics, uncertainty is totally reduced by an a priori Gaussian framework-in contrast to econophysics, which does not use a priori models because it works directly on data. Uncertainty is then not shaped by a specific model, and is partially and temporally reduced as models improve. This way of thinking about uncertainty has echoes in the economic literature. By presenting econophysics as a Knightian method, and a complementary approach to a Hayekian framework, this paper shows that econophysics can be methodologically justified from an economic point of view.

  5. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  6. Evaluation of the absorbed dose to the kidneys due to Tc{sup 99m} (DTPA) / Tc{sup 99m} (Mag3) and Tc{sup 99m} (Dmsa); Evaluacion de la dosis absorbida en los rinones debido al Tc{sup 99m} (DTPA) / Tc{sup 99m} (MAG3) y Tc{sup 99m} (DMSA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez A, M.; Murillo C, F.; Castillo D, C.; Rocha J, J.; Sifuentes D, Y.; Sanchez S, P. [Universidad Nacional de Trujillo, Av. Juan Pablo II s/n, Trujillo (Peru); Idrogo C, J.; Marquez P, F., E-mail: marvva@hotmail.com [Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplasicas, Av. Angamos 2520, Lima (Peru)

    2015-10-15

    The absorbed dose in the kidneys of adult patients has been assessed using the biokinetics of radiopharmaceuticals containing Tc{sup 99m} (DTPA) / Tc{sup 99m} (Mag3) or Tc{sup 99m} (Dmsa).The absorbed dose was calculated using the formalism MIRD and the Cristy-Eckerman representation for the kidneys. The absorbed dose to the kidneys due to Tc{sup 99m} (DTPA) / Tc{sup 99m} (Mag3), are given by 0.00466 mGy.MBq{sup -1} / 0.00339 mGy.MBq{sup -1}. Approximately 21.2% of the absorbed dose is due to the bladder (content) and the remaining tissue, included in biokinetics of Tc{sup 99m} (DTPA) / Tc{sup 99m} (Mag3). The absorbed dose to the kidneys due to Tc{sup 99m} (Dmsa) is 0.17881 mGy.MBq{sup -1}. Here, 1.7% of the absorbed dose is due to the bladder, spleen, liver and the remaining tissue, included in biokinetics of Tc{sup 99m} (Dmsa). (Author)

  7. Uncertainties Associated with Flux Measurements Due to Heterogeneous Contaminant Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mass flux and mass discharge measurements at contaminated sites have been applied to assist with remedial management, and can be divided into two broad categories: point-scale measurement techniques and pumping methods. Extrapolation across un-sampled space is necessary when usi...

  8. Effect of Tissue Composition on Dose Distribution in Electron Beam Radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, M.; Tabatabaei, Z. S.; Vejdani Noghreiyan, A.; Vosoughi, H.; Knaup, C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of tissue composition on dose distribution in electron beam radiotherapy. Methods A Siemens Primus linear accelerator and a phantom were simulated using MCNPX Monte Carlo code. In a homogeneous cylindrical phantom, six types of soft tissue and three types of tissue-equivalent materials were investigated. The tissues included muscle (skeletal), adipose tissue, blood (whole), breast tissue, soft tissue (9-components) and soft tissue (4-component). The tissue-equivalent materials were water, A-150 tissue-equivalent plastic and perspex. Electron dose relative to dose in 9-component soft tissue at various depths on the beam’s central axis was determined for 8, 12, and 14 MeV electron energies. Results The results of relative electron dose in various materials relative to dose in 9-component soft tissue were reported for 8, 12 and 14 MeV electron beams as tabulated data. While differences were observed between dose distributions in various soft tissues and tissue-equivalent materials, which vary with the composition of material, electron energy and depth in phantom, they can be ignored due to the incorporated uncertainties in Monte Carlo calculations. Conclusion Based on the calculations performed, differences in dose distributions in various soft tissues and tissue-equivalent materials are not significant. However, due to the difference in composition of various materials, further research in this field with lower uncertainties is recommended. PMID:25973407

  9. Effect of Tissue Composition on Dose Distribution in Electron Beam Radiotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghorbani M.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of tissue composition on dose distribution in electron beam radiotherapy. Methods: A Siemens Primus linear accelerator and a phantom were simulated using MCNPX Monte Carlo code. In a homogeneous cylindrical phantom, six types of soft tissue and three types of tissue-equivalent materials were investigated. The tissues included muscle (skeletal, adipose tissue, blood (whole, breast tissue, soft tissue (9-components and soft tissue (4-component. The tissue-equivalent materials were water, A-150 tissue-equivalent plastic and perspex. Electron dose relative to dose in 9-component soft tissue at various depths on the beam’s central axis was determined for 8, 12, and 14 MeV electron energies. Results: The results of relative electron dose in various materials relative to dose in 9-component soft tissue were reported for 8, 12 and 14 MeV electron beams as tabulated data. While differences were observed between dose distributions in various soft tissues and tissue-equivalent materials, which vary with the composition of material, electron energy and depth in phantom, they can be ignored due to the incorporated uncertainties in Monte Carlo calculations. Conclusion: Based on the calculations performed, differences in dose distributions in various soft tissues and tissue-equivalent materials are not significant. However, due to the difference in composition of various materials, further research in this field with lower uncertainties is recommended.

  10. Optimal Universal Uncertainty Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Xiao, Yunlong; Ma, Teng; Fei, Shao-Ming; Jing, Naihuan; Li-Jost, Xianqing; Wang, Zhi-Xi

    2016-01-01

    We study universal uncertainty relations and present a method called joint probability distribution diagram to improve the majorization bounds constructed independently in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 230401 (2013)] and [J. Phys. A. 46, 272002 (2013)]. The results give rise to state independent uncertainty relations satisfied by any nonnegative Schur-concave functions. On the other hand, a remarkable recent result of entropic uncertainty relation is the direct-sum majorization relation. In this paper, we illustrate our bounds by showing how they provide a complement to that in [Phys. Rev. A. 89, 052115 (2014)]. PMID:27775010

  11. Correlated Uncertainties in Radiation Shielding Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werneth, Charles M.; Maung, Khin Maung; Blattnig, Steve R.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Townsend, Lawrence W.

    2013-01-01

    The space radiation environment is composed of energetic particles which can deliver harmful doses of radiation that may lead to acute radiation sickness, cancer, and even death for insufficiently shielded crew members. Spacecraft shielding must provide structural integrity and minimize the risk associated with radiation exposure. The risk of radiation exposure induced death (REID) is a measure of the risk of dying from cancer induced by radiation exposure. Uncertainties in the risk projection model, quality factor, and spectral fluence are folded into the calculation of the REID by sampling from probability distribution functions. Consequently, determining optimal shielding materials that reduce the REID in a statistically significant manner has been found to be difficult. In this work, the difference of the REID distributions for different materials is used to study the effect of composition on shielding effectiveness. It is shown that the use of correlated uncertainties allows for the determination of statistically significant differences between materials despite the large uncertainties in the quality factor. This is in contrast to previous methods where uncertainties have been generally treated as uncorrelated. It is concluded that the use of correlated quality factor uncertainties greatly reduces the uncertainty in the assessment of shielding effectiveness for the mitigation of radiation exposure.

  12. The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Andrew S; Luquero, Francisco J; Ciglenecki, Iza; Grais, Rebecca F; Sack, David A; Lessler, Justin

    2015-08-01

    In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both. Using mathematical models we determined the minimum relative single-dose efficacy (MRSE) at which single-dose reactive campaigns are expected to be as or more effective than two-dose campaigns with the same amount of vaccine. Average one- and two-dose OCV effectiveness was estimated from published literature and compared to the MRSE. Results were applied to recent outbreaks in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea using stochastic simulations to illustrate the potential impact of one- and two-dose campaigns. At the start of an epidemic, a single dose must be 35%-56% as efficacious as two doses to avert the same number of cases with a fixed amount of vaccine (i.e., MRSE between 35% and 56%). This threshold decreases as vaccination is delayed. Short-term OCV effectiveness is estimated to be 77% (95% CI 57%-88%) for two doses and 44% (95% CI -27% to 76%) for one dose. This results in a one-dose relative efficacy estimate of 57% (interquartile range 13%-88%), which is above conservative MRSE estimates. Using our best estimates of one- and two-dose efficacy, we projected that a single-dose reactive campaign could have prevented 70,584 (95% prediction interval [PI] 55,943-86,205) cases in Zimbabwe, 78,317 (95% PI 57,435-100,150) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 2,826 (95% PI 2,490-3,170) cases in Conakry, Guinea: 1.1 to 1.2 times as many as a two-dose campaign. While extensive sensitivity analyses were performed, our projections of cases averted in past epidemics are based on severely limited single-dose efficacy data and may not fully capture uncertainty due to imperfect surveillance data and

  13. The Impact of a One-Dose versus Two-Dose Oral Cholera Vaccine Regimen in Outbreak Settings: A Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew S Azman

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both.Using mathematical models we determined the minimum relative single-dose efficacy (MRSE at which single-dose reactive campaigns are expected to be as or more effective than two-dose campaigns with the same amount of vaccine. Average one- and two-dose OCV effectiveness was estimated from published literature and compared to the MRSE. Results were applied to recent outbreaks in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea using stochastic simulations to illustrate the potential impact of one- and two-dose campaigns. At the start of an epidemic, a single dose must be 35%-56% as efficacious as two doses to avert the same number of cases with a fixed amount of vaccine (i.e., MRSE between 35% and 56%. This threshold decreases as vaccination is delayed. Short-term OCV effectiveness is estimated to be 77% (95% CI 57%-88% for two doses and 44% (95% CI -27% to 76% for one dose. This results in a one-dose relative efficacy estimate of 57% (interquartile range 13%-88%, which is above conservative MRSE estimates. Using our best estimates of one- and two-dose efficacy, we projected that a single-dose reactive campaign could have prevented 70,584 (95% prediction interval [PI] 55,943-86,205 cases in Zimbabwe, 78,317 (95% PI 57,435-100,150 in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 2,826 (95% PI 2,490-3,170 cases in Conakry, Guinea: 1.1 to 1.2 times as many as a two-dose campaign. While extensive sensitivity analyses were performed, our projections of cases averted in past epidemics are based on severely limited single-dose efficacy data and may not fully capture uncertainty due to imperfect

  14. Treatment of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.

    2012-12-01

    Over the last few years, we have developed a framework for developing probabilistic tsunami inundation maps, which includes comprehensive quantification of earthquake recurrence as well as uncertainties, and applied it to the development of a tsunami hazard map of California. The various uncertainties in tsunami source and propagation models are an integral part of a comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA), and often drive the hazard at low probability levels (i.e. long return periods). There is no unique manner in which uncertainties are included in the analysis although in general, we distinguish between "natural" or aleatory variability, such as slip distribution and event magnitude, and uncertainties due to an incomplete understanding of the behavior of the earth, called epistemic uncertainties, such as scaling relations and rupture segmentation. Aleatory uncertainties are typically included through integration over distribution functions based on regression analyses, whereas epistemic uncertainties are included using logic trees. We will discuss how the different uncertainties were included in our recent probabilistic tsunami inundation maps for California, and their relative importance on the final results. Including these uncertainties in offshore exceedance waveheights is straightforward, but the problem becomes more complicated once the non-linearity of near-shore propagation and inundation are encountered. By using the probabilistic off-shore waveheights as input level for the inundation models, the uncertainties up to that point can be included in the final maps. PTHA provides a consistent analysis of tsunami hazard and will become an important tool in diverse areas such as coastal engineering and land use planning. The inclusive nature of the analysis, where few assumptions are made a-priori as to which sources are significant, means that a single analysis can provide a comprehensive view of the hazard and its dominant sources

  15. Uncertainty, rationality, and agency

    CERN Document Server

    Hoek, Wiebe van der

    2006-01-01

    Goes across 'classical' borderlines of disciplinesUnifies logic, game theory, and epistemics and studies them in an agent-settingCombines classical and novel approaches to uncertainty, rationality, and agency

  16. Introduction to uncertainty quantification

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, T J

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty quantification is a topic of increasing practical importance at the intersection of applied mathematics, statistics, computation, and numerous application areas in science and engineering. This text provides a framework in which the main objectives of the field of uncertainty quantification are defined, and an overview of the range of mathematical methods by which they can be achieved. Complete with exercises throughout, the book will equip readers with both theoretical understanding and practical experience of the key mathematical and algorithmic tools underlying the treatment of uncertainty in modern applied mathematics. Students and readers alike are encouraged to apply the mathematical methods discussed in this book to their own favourite problems to understand their strengths and weaknesses, also making the text suitable as a self-study. This text is designed as an introduction to uncertainty quantification for senior undergraduate and graduate students with a mathematical or statistical back...

  17. Uncertainty in chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menger, Fredric M

    2010-09-01

    It might come as a disappointment to some chemists, but just as there are uncertainties in physics and mathematics, there are some chemistry questions we may never know the answer to either, suggests Fredric M. Menger.

  18. Quantification of damage due to low-dose radiation exposure in mice: construction and application of a biodosimetric model using mRNA indicators in circulating white blood cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishihara, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Izumi; Yakumaru, Haruko; Tanaka, Mika; Yokochi, Kazuko; Fukutsu, Kumiko; Tajima, Katsushi; Nishimura, Mayumi; Shimada, Yoshiya; Akashi, Makoto

    2016-01-01

    Biodosimetry, the measurement of radiation damage in a biologic sample, is a reliable tool for increasing the accuracy of dose estimation. Although established chromosome analyses are suitable for estimating the absorbed dose after high-dose irradiation, biodosimetric methodology to measure damage following low-dose exposure is underdeveloped. RNA analysis of circulating blood containing radiation-sensitive cells is a candidate biodosimetry method. Here we quantified RNA from a small amount of blood isolated from mice following low-dose body irradiation (radiation-sensitive undifferentiated cells in the blood based on Myc RNA expression, we quantified the relative levels of RNA for DNA damage-induced (DDI) genes, such as Bax, Bbc3 and Cdkn1a. The RNA ratios of DDI genes/Myc in the blood increased in a dose-dependent manner 4 h after whole-body irradiation at doses ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 Gy (air-kerma) of X-rays, regardless of whether the mice were in an active or resting state. The RNA ratios were significantly increased after 0.014 Gy (air-kerma) of single X-ray irradiation. The RNA ratios were directly proportional to the absorbed doses in water ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 Gy, based on gamma-irradiation from (137)Cs. Four hours after continuous irradiation with gamma-rays or by internal contamination with a beta-emitter, the increased RNA ratios resembled those following single irradiation. These findings indicate that the RNA status can be utilized as a biodosimetric tool to estimate low-dose radiation when focusing on undifferentiated cells in blood. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

  19. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  20. Generalized uncertainty principles

    CERN Document Server

    Machluf, Ronny

    2008-01-01

    The phenomenon in the essence of classical uncertainty principles is well known since the thirties of the last century. We introduce a new phenomenon which is in the essence of a new notion that we introduce: "Generalized Uncertainty Principles". We show the relation between classical uncertainty principles and generalized uncertainty principles. We generalized "Landau-Pollak-Slepian" uncertainty principle. Our generalization relates the following two quantities and two scaling parameters: 1) The weighted time spreading $\\int_{-\\infty}^\\infty |f(x)|^2w_1(x)dx$, ($w_1(x)$ is a non-negative function). 2) The weighted frequency spreading $\\int_{-\\infty}^\\infty |\\hat{f}(\\omega)|^2w_2(\\omega)d\\omega$. 3) The time weight scale $a$, ${w_1}_a(x)=w_1(xa^{-1})$ and 4) The frequency weight scale $b$, ${w_2}_b(\\omega)=w_2(\\omega b^{-1})$. "Generalized Uncertainty Principle" is an inequality that summarizes the constraints on the relations between the two spreading quantities and two scaling parameters. For any two reason...

  1. Blade tip timing (BTT) uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russhard, Pete

    2016-06-01

    Blade Tip Timing (BTT) is an alternative technique for characterising blade vibration in which non-contact timing probes (e.g. capacitance or optical probes), typically mounted on the engine casing (figure 1), and are used to measure the time at which a blade passes each probe. This time is compared with the time at which the blade would have passed the probe if it had been undergoing no vibration. For a number of years the aerospace industry has been sponsoring research into Blade Tip Timing technologies that have been developed as tools to obtain rotor blade tip deflections. These have been successful in demonstrating the potential of the technology, but rarely produced quantitative data, along with a demonstration of a traceable value for measurement uncertainty. BTT technologies have been developed under a cloak of secrecy by the gas turbine OEM's due to the competitive advantages it offered if it could be shown to work. BTT measurements are sensitive to many variables and there is a need to quantify the measurement uncertainty of the complete technology and to define a set of guidelines as to how BTT should be applied to different vehicles. The data shown in figure 2 was developed from US government sponsored program that bought together four different tip timing system and a gas turbine engine test. Comparisons showed that they were just capable of obtaining measurement within a +/-25% uncertainty band when compared to strain gauges even when using the same input data sets.

  2. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  3. Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavreul, Julie; Guyonnet, Dominique; Christensen, Thomas H

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.

  4. Calculation of dose due to exposure internal in the services of nuclear medicine of Peru; Calculo de dosis debida a la exposicion interna en los servicios de medicina nuclear del Peru

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez, S.; Zapata, L.; Cardenas, A.; Velasquez, M.

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this work is to improve the radiation protection of workers occupationally exposed to open source of nuclear medicine services and train those responsible for radiation protection of such installations to carry a comprehensive record of doses. (Author)

  5. Uncertainty analysis in the simulation of X-ray spectra in the diagnostic range using the MCNP5 code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallardo, S; Querol, A; Ródenas, J; Verdú, G

    2011-01-01

    An accurate knowledge of the photonic spectra emitted by X-ray tubes in radiodiagnostics is essential to better estimate the imparted dose to patients and to improve the image quality obtained with these devices. In this work, several X-ray spectra have been simulated using the MCNP5 code to simulate X-ray production in a commercial device. To validate the Monte Carlo results, simulated spectra have been compared to those extracted from the IPEM 78 database. The uncertainty associated to some geometrical features of the tube and its effect on the simulated spectra has been analyzed using the Noether-Wilks formula. This analysis has been focused on the thickness of collimators, filters, shielding and barrel shutter. Furthermore, results show that the uncertainty due to geometrical parameters (0.98% in terms of Root Mean Squared) is higher than the statistical uncertainty associated to the MCNP5 calculations.

  6. Uncertainties of a preemptive nuclear attack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, M.; Tsipis, K.

    1983-11-01

    The deterrence of nuclear war requires that nuclear forces not be vulnerable to a preemptive disarming attack that would preclude retaliation. The uncertainties surrounding a countersilo attack stem from incomplete intelligence information about the accuracy of weapons delivery due to errors in the inertial-guidance system and those associated with reentry into the atmosphere. An analyses of these uncertainties examines the results of test flights and calculations based on simulations that consider the problems of fratricide, estimates of yield, and a number of other technical uncertainties that are overshadowed by the uncertainty of whether the nation under attack would respond with launch-on-warning or launch-under-attack. The analysis concludes that, despite a current level of stability, the progress of weapons technology bodes ill for the future unless stringent testing and deployment limitations are imposed. 6 figures, 1 table. (DCK)

  7. Quantifying reliability uncertainty : a proof of concept.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diegert, Kathleen V.; Dvorack, Michael A.; Ringland, James T.; Mundt, Michael Joseph; Huzurbazar, Aparna (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Lorio, John F.; Fatherley, Quinn (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Anderson-Cook, Christine (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Wilson, Alyson G. (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM); Zurn, Rena M.

    2009-10-01

    This paper develops Classical and Bayesian methods for quantifying the uncertainty in reliability for a system of mixed series and parallel components for which both go/no-go and variables data are available. Classical methods focus on uncertainty due to sampling error. Bayesian methods can explore both sampling error and other knowledge-based uncertainties. To date, the reliability community has focused on qualitative statements about uncertainty because there was no consensus on how to quantify them. This paper provides a proof of concept that workable, meaningful quantification methods can be constructed. In addition, the application of the methods demonstrated that the results from the two fundamentally different approaches can be quite comparable. In both approaches, results are sensitive to the details of how one handles components for which no failures have been seen in relatively few tests.

  8. Dose Estimation from Daily and Weekly Dosimetry Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostrouchov, G.

    2001-11-16

    Statistical analyses of data from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to radiation have been based on recorded annual radiation doses (yearly dose of record). It is usually assumed that the dose values are known exactly, although it is generally recognized that the data contain uncertainty due to measurement error and bias. In our previous work with weekly data, a probability distribution was used to describe an individual's dose during a specific period of time and statistical methods were developed for estimating it from weekly film dosimetry data. This study showed that the yearly dose of record systematically underestimates doses for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) workers. This could result in biased estimates of dose-response coefficients and their standard errors. The results of this evaluation raise serious questions about the suitability of the yearly dose of record for direct use in low-dose studies of nuclear industry workers. Here, we extend our previous work to use full information in Pocket meter data and develop the Data Synthesis for Individual Dose Estimation (DSIDE) methodology. Although the DSIDE methodology in this study is developed in the context of daily and weekly data to produce a cumulative yearly dose estimate, in principle it is completely general and can be extended to other time period and measurement combinations. The new methodology takes into account the ''measurement error'' that is produced by the film and pocket-meter dosimetry systems, the biases introduced by policies that lead to recording left-censored doses as zeros, and other measurement and recording practices. The DSIDE method is applied to a sample of dose histories obtained from hard copy dosimetry records at ORNL for the years 1945 to 1955. First, the rigorous addition of daily pocket-meter information shows that the negative bias is generally more severe than was reported in our work based on weekly film data only, however, the

  9. ISO/GUM UNCERTAINTIES AND CIAAW (UNCERTAINTY TREATMENT FOR RECOMMENDED ATOMIC WEIGHTS AND ISOTOPIC ABUNDANCES)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOLDEN,N.E.

    2007-07-23

    The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). The IUPAC Commission on Isotopic Abundance and Atomic Weight (CIAAW) began attaching uncertainty limits to their recommended values about forty years ago. CIAAW's method for determining and assigning uncertainties has evolved over time. We trace this evolution to their present method and their effort to incorporate the basic ISO/GUM procedures into evaluations of these uncertainties. We discuss some dilemma the CIAAW faces in their present method and whether it is consistent with the application of the ISO/GUM rules. We discuss the attempt to incorporate variations in measured isotope ratios, due to natural fractionation, into the ISO/GUM system. We make some observations about the inconsistent treatment in the incorporation of natural variations into recommended data and uncertainties. A recommendation for expressing atomic weight values using a tabulated range of values for various chemical elements is discussed.

  10. Network planning under uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

    2008-11-01

    One of the main focuses for network planning is on the optimization of network resources required to build a network under certain traffic demand projection. Traditionally, the inputs to this type of network planning problems are treated as deterministic. In reality, the varying traffic requirements and fluctuations in network resources can cause uncertainties in the decision models. The failure to include the uncertainties in the network design process can severely affect the feasibility and economics of the network. Therefore, it is essential to find a solution that can be insensitive to the uncertain conditions during the network planning process. As early as in the 1960's, a network planning problem with varying traffic requirements over time had been studied. Up to now, this kind of network planning problems is still being active researched, especially for the VPN network design. Another kind of network planning problems under uncertainties that has been studied actively in the past decade addresses the fluctuations in network resources. One such hotly pursued research topic is survivable network planning. It considers the design of a network under uncertainties brought by the fluctuations in topology to meet the requirement that the network remains intact up to a certain number of faults occurring anywhere in the network. Recently, the authors proposed a new planning methodology called Generalized Survivable Network that tackles the network design problem under both varying traffic requirements and fluctuations of topology. Although all the above network planning problems handle various kinds of uncertainties, it is hard to find a generic framework under more general uncertainty conditions that allows a more systematic way to solve the problems. With a unified framework, the seemingly diverse models and algorithms can be intimately related and possibly more insights and improvements can be brought out for solving the problem. This motivates us to seek a

  11. Interpreting uncertainty terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtgraves, Thomas

    2014-08-01

    Uncertainty terms (e.g., some, possible, good, etc.) are words that do not have a fixed referent and hence are relatively ambiguous. A model is proposed that specifies how, from the hearer's perspective, recognition of facework as a potential motive for the use of an uncertainty term results in a calibration of the intended meaning of that term. Four experiments are reported that examine the impact of face threat, and the variables that affect it (e.g., power), on the manner in which a variety of uncertainty terms (probability terms, quantifiers, frequency terms, etc.) are interpreted. Overall, the results demonstrate that increased face threat in a situation will result in a more negative interpretation of an utterance containing an uncertainty term. That the interpretation of so many different types of uncertainty terms is affected in the same way suggests the operation of a fundamental principle of language use, one with important implications for the communication of risk, subjective experience, and so on.

  12. Pre-treatment radiotherapy dose verification using Monte Carlo doselet modulation in a spherical phantom

    CERN Document Server

    Townson, Reid W

    2013-01-01

    Due to the increasing complexity of radiotherapy delivery, accurate dose verification has become an essential part of the clinical treatment process. The purpose of this work was to develop an electronic portal image (EPI) based pre-treatment verification technique capable of quickly reconstructing 3D dose distributions from both coplanar and non-coplanar treatments. The dose reconstruction is performed in a spherical water phantom by modulating, based on EPID measurements, pre-calculated Monte Carlo (MC) doselets defined on a spherical coordinate system. This is called the spherical doselet modulation (SDM) method. This technique essentially eliminates the statistical uncertainty of the MC dose calculations by exploiting both azimuthal symmetry in a patient-independent phase-space and symmetry of a virtual spherical water phantom. The symmetry also allows the number of doselets necessary for dose reconstruction to be reduced by a factor of about 250. In this work, 51 doselets were used. The SDM method mitiga...

  13. Evaluation of the absorbed dose during studies of the renal function due to I{sup 123} / I{sup 131} (hippuran) and In{sup 111} (DTPA); Evaluacion de la dosis absorbida durante estudios de la funcion renal debido a I{sup 123} / I{sup 131} (hippuran) e In{sup 111} (DPTA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez, M.; Castillo, C.; Sarachaga, R.; Rojas, R.; Zelada, L.; Melendez, J.; Gomez, M. [Universidad Nacional de Trujillo, Av. Juan Pablo II s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Trujillo (Peru); Diaz, E., E-mail: marvva@hotmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Paulo Gamma 110, Bairro Farropilhas, Porto Alegre, RS 90040-060 (Brazil)

    2014-08-15

    Using the methodology MIRD and representation Cristy-Eckerman for kidneys, bladder, and whole body as organs of the bio-kinetics of I{sup 123} / I{sup 131} (hippuran) and the In{sup 111} (D PTA), the absorbed dose for studies of the renal function of adults due to the I{sup 123} is 0,0071 mGy/MBq where 88.16% corresponds to its auto-dose and 11,96% to the organs of their bio-kinetics; while for the I{sup 131} their dose is 0,032 mGy/MBq where 95,03% corresponds to its auto-dose and 4,97% to the organs of their bio-kinetics. For the In{sup 111} their dose is 0,0168 mGy/MBq where 71,68% corresponds to their auto-dose and 28,32% to the organs of their bio-kinetics. In all the cases the dosimetric contributions of the organs of the bio-kinetics (whole body and urinary bladder) are very significant, and this fundamentally is due to the photons of the whole body. (Author)

  14. Evaluation of the scatter doses in the direction of the buccal mucosa from dental metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimamoto, Hiroaki; Sumida, Iori; Kakimoto, Naoya; Marutani, Keisuke; Okahata, Ryoko; Usami, Ai; Tsujimoto, Tomomi; Murakami, Shumei; Furukawa, Souhei; Tetradis, Sotirios

    2015-05-08

    The presence of dental metals creates radiation dose perturbation due to scattered radiation during radiation therapy for the head and neck region. The purpose of our study was to compare the scatter doses resulting from various dental metals in the direction of the buccal mucosa among a single-field technique, three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D CRT), and intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) during radiation therapy for the head and neck region. We used nine metal cubes with 10 mm sides, which were placed inside a water phantom. The scatter doses from the cubes in the direction of the buccal mucosa were measured using radiochromic films. The films were placed perpendicularly to the surface of the cubes. The phantom was irradiated with a 4 MV photon energy by a linear accelerator for all techniques. In the single-field technique, the scatter doses from dental metals showed 3.7%-19.3% dose increases, and gold showed the largest dose increase. In 3D CRT, the scatter doses from dental metals showed 1.4%-6.9% dose increases, which were within the measurement uncertainty (except for gold). In IMRT, the scatter doses from dental metals showed only 1.4%-4.3% dose increases, which were all within the measurement uncertainty. During radiation therapy for the head and neck region, the scatter doses from the tested dental metals in the direction of the buccal mucosa in 3D CRT or IMRT were lower than those using the single-field technique. However, there were no differences between the scatter doses resulting from particular dental metals in the direction of the buccal mucosa in 3D CRT and those in IMRT, except for gold.

  15. Uncertainty analysis of energy consumption in dwellings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pettersen, Trine Dyrstad

    1997-12-31

    This thesis presents a comprehensive study of an energy estimation model that can be used to examine the uncertainty of predicted energy consumption in a dwelling. The variation and uncertainty of input parameters due to the outdoor climate, the building construction and the inhabitants are studied as a basis for further energy evaluations. The occurring variations of energy consumption in nominal similar dwellings are also investigated due to verification of the simulated energy consumption. The main topics are (1) a study of expected variations and uncertainties in both input parameters used in energy consumption calculations and the energy consumption in the dwelling, (2) the development and evaluation of a simplified energy calculation model that considers uncertainties due to the input parameters, (3) an evaluation of the influence of the uncertain parameters on the total variation so that the most important parameters can be identified, and (4) the recommendation of a simplified procedure for treating uncertainties or possible deviations from average conditions. 90 refs., 182 figs., 73 tabs.

  16. Where does the uncertainty come from? Attributing Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrologic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Shoaib, S.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.

    2015-12-01

    Defining an appropriate forecasting model is a key phase in water resources planning and design. Quantification of uncertainty is an important step in the development and application of hydrologic models. In this study, we examine the dependency of hydrologic model uncertainty on the observed model inputs, defined model structure, parameter optimization identifiability and identified likelihood. We present here a new uncertainty metric, the Quantile Flow Deviation or QFD, to evaluate the relative uncertainty due to each of these sources under a range of catchment conditions. Through the metric, we may identify the potential spectrum of uncertainty and variability in model simulations. The QFD assesses uncertainty by estimating the deviation in flows at a given quantile across a range of scenarios. By using a quantile based metric, the change in uncertainty across individual percentiles can be assessed, thereby allowing uncertainty to be expressed as a function of time. The QFD method can be disaggregated to examine any part of the modelling process including the selection of certain model subroutines or forcing data. Case study results (including catchments in Australia and USA) suggest that model structure selection is vital irrespective of the flow percentile of interest or the catchment being studied. Examining the QFD across various quantiles additionally demonstrates that lower yielding catchments may have greater variation due to selected model structures. By incorporating multiple model structures, it is possible to assess (i) the relative importance of various sources of uncertainty, (ii) how these vary with the change in catchment location or hydrologic regime; and (iii) the impact of the length of available observations in uncertainty quantification.

  17. Uncertainty in flood risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Luisa M. S.; Fonte, Cidália C.; Gomes, Ricardo

    2014-05-01

    A flood refers to a sharp increase of water level or volume in rivers and seas caused by sudden rainstorms or melting ice due to natural factors. In this paper, the flooding of riverside urban areas caused by sudden rainstorms will be studied. In this context, flooding occurs when the water runs above the level of the minor river bed and enters the major river bed. The level of the major bed determines the magnitude and risk of the flooding. The prediction of the flooding extent is usually deterministic, and corresponds to the expected limit of the flooded area. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the process of obtaining these limits, which influence the obtained flood maps used for watershed management or as instruments for territorial and emergency planning. In addition, small variations in the delineation of the flooded area can be translated into erroneous risk prediction. Therefore, maps that reflect the uncertainty associated with the flood modeling process have started to be developed, associating a degree of likelihood with the boundaries of the flooded areas. In this paper an approach is presented that enables the influence of the parameters uncertainty to be evaluated, dependent on the type of Land Cover Map (LCM) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM), on the estimated values of the peak flow and the delineation of flooded areas (different peak flows correspond to different flood areas). The approach requires modeling the DEM uncertainty and its propagation to the catchment delineation. The results obtained in this step enable a catchment with fuzzy geographical extent to be generated, where a degree of possibility of belonging to the basin is assigned to each elementary spatial unit. Since the fuzzy basin may be considered as a fuzzy set, the fuzzy area of the basin may be computed, generating a fuzzy number. The catchment peak flow is then evaluated using fuzzy arithmetic. With this methodology a fuzzy number is obtained for the peak flow

  18. Dose absorbed in adults and children thyroid due to the I{sup 123} using the dosimetry MIRD and Marinelli; Dosis absorbida en tiroides de adultos y ninos debido al I{sup 123} utilizando las dosimetrias MIRD y Marinelli

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez, M.; Castillo, C.; Cabrera, C.; Sarachaga, R.; Castaneda, J. [Universidad Nacional de Trujillo, Av. Juan Pablo II s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Trujillo (Peru); Diaz, E., E-mail: marvva@hotmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Paulo Gamma 110, Bairro Farropilhas, Porto Alegre, RS 90040-060 (Brazil)

    2014-08-15

    Using the dosimetry MIRD, and representation Cristy-Eckerman in the thyroid gland and organs of their bio-kinetics when I{sup 123} (Iodine) is used, the study demonstrates that the absorbed dose by the gland of an adult, children, and newly born, is their auto-dose, independent of the compartments number of their bio-kinetics. The dosimetric contributions of the organs of their bio-kinetics are insignificant. Their results are not significantly different to those obtained by the formalism MARINELLI (auto-dose) when it uses a sphere like glandular representation. In consequence, the kinetic model corresponding to the glandular representation decreases to a compartment, where the gland can also be represented like a sphere. (Author)

  19. Measurement uncertainty relations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Paul, E-mail: paul.busch@york.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics, University of York, York (United Kingdom); Lahti, Pekka, E-mail: pekka.lahti@utu.fi [Turku Centre for Quantum Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku (Finland); Werner, Reinhard F., E-mail: reinhard.werner@itp.uni-hannover.de [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Leibniz Universität, Hannover (Germany)

    2014-04-15

    Measurement uncertainty relations are quantitative bounds on the errors in an approximate joint measurement of two observables. They can be seen as a generalization of the error/disturbance tradeoff first discussed heuristically by Heisenberg. Here we prove such relations for the case of two canonically conjugate observables like position and momentum, and establish a close connection with the more familiar preparation uncertainty relations constraining the sharpness of the distributions of the two observables in the same state. Both sets of relations are generalized to means of order α rather than the usual quadratic means, and we show that the optimal constants are the same for preparation and for measurement uncertainty. The constants are determined numerically and compared with some bounds in the literature. In both cases, the near-saturation of the inequalities entails that the state (resp. observable) is uniformly close to a minimizing one.

  20. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    and infers prescriptions from this requirement. These two approaches may conflict, and in this conflict the top-down approach has the upper hand, ethically speaking. However, the implicit goal in the top-down approach of justice between generations needs to be refined in several dimensions. But even given...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...... are decisions under uncertainty. There might be different judgments on likelihoods; but even given some set of probabilities, there might be disagreement on the right level of precaution in face of the uncertainty....

  1. SAGD optimization under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gossuin, J.; Naccache, P. [Schlumberger SIS, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Bailley, W.; Couet, B. [Schlumberger-Doll Research, Cambridge, MA, (United States)

    2011-07-01

    In the heavy oil industry, the steam assisted gravity drainage process is often used to enhance oil recovery but this is a costly method and ways to make it more efficient are needed. Multiple methods have been developed to optimize the SAGD process but none of them explicitly considered uncertainty. This paper presents an optimization method in the presence of reservoir uncertainty. This process was tested on an SAGD model where three equi-probable geological models are possible. Preparatory steps were first performed to identify key variables and the optimization model was then proposed. The method was shown to be successful in handling a significant number of uncertainties, optimizing the SAGD process and preventing premature steam channels that can choke production. The optimization method presented herein was successfully applied to an SAGD process and was shown to provide better strategies than sensitivity analysis while handling more complex problems.

  2. Monte Carlo dose calculation in dental amalgam phantom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Mohd Zahri Abdul; Yusoff, A L; Osman, N D; Abdullah, R; Rabaie, N A; Salikin, M S

    2015-01-01

    It has become a great challenge in the modern radiation treatment to ensure the accuracy of treatment delivery in electron beam therapy. Tissue inhomogeneity has become one of the factors for accurate dose calculation, and this requires complex algorithm calculation like Monte Carlo (MC). On the other hand, computed tomography (CT) images used in treatment planning system need to be trustful as they are the input in radiotherapy treatment. However, with the presence of metal amalgam in treatment volume, the CT images input showed prominent streak artefact, thus, contributed sources of error. Hence, metal amalgam phantom often creates streak artifacts, which cause an error in the dose calculation. Thus, a streak artifact reduction technique was applied to correct the images, and as a result, better images were observed in terms of structure delineation and density assigning. Furthermore, the amalgam density data were corrected to provide amalgam voxel with accurate density value. As for the errors of dose uncertainties due to metal amalgam, they were reduced from 46% to as low as 2% at d80 (depth of the 80% dose beyond Zmax) using the presented strategies. Considering the number of vital and radiosensitive organs in the head and the neck regions, this correction strategy is suggested in reducing calculation uncertainties through MC calculation.

  3. Monte carlo dose calculation in dental amalgam phantom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Zahri Abdul Aziz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available It has become a great challenge in the modern radiation treatment to ensure the accuracy of treatment delivery in electron beam therapy. Tissue inhomogeneity has become one of the factors for accurate dose calculation, and this requires complex algorithm calculation like Monte Carlo (MC. On the other hand, computed tomography (CT images used in treatment planning system need to be trustful as they are the input in radiotherapy treatment. However, with the presence of metal amalgam in treatment volume, the CT images input showed prominent streak artefact, thus, contributed sources of error. Hence, metal amalgam phantom often creates streak artifacts, which cause an error in the dose calculation. Thus, a streak artifact reduction technique was applied to correct the images, and as a result, better images were observed in terms of structure delineation and density assigning. Furthermore, the amalgam density data were corrected to provide amalgam voxel with accurate density value. As for the errors of dose uncertainties due to metal amalgam, they were reduced from 46% to as low as 2% at d80 (depth of the 80% dose beyond Zmax using the presented strategies. Considering the number of vital and radiosensitive organs in the head and the neck regions, this correction strategy is suggested in reducing calculation uncertainties through MC calculation.

  4. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  5. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  6. Commonplaces and social uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Inger

    2008-01-01

    an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...... risk discourse (Myers 2005; 2007). In additional, however, I argue that commonplaces are used to mitigate feelings of insecurity caused by uncertainty and to negotiate new codes of moral conduct. Keywords: uncertainty, commonplaces, risk discourse, focus groups, appraisal...

  7. Carrying-over toxicokinetic model uncertainty into cancer risk estimates. The TCDD example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edler, L. [Division of Biostatistics, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg (Germany); Heinzl, H.; Mittlboeck, M. [Medical Univ. of Vienna (Austria). Dept. of Medical Computer Sciences

    2004-09-15

    Estimation of human cancer risks depends on the assessment of exposure to the investigated hazardous compound as well as on its toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic in the body. Modeling these processes constitutes a basic prerequisite for any quantitative risk assessment including assessment of the uncertainty of risk estimates. Obviously, the modeling process itself is part of the risk assessment task, and it affects the development of valid risk estimates. Due to the wealth of information available on exposure and effects in humans and animals 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-pdioxin (TCDD) provides an excellent example to elaborate methods which allow a quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of TCDD risk estimates, and which show how toxicokinetic model uncertainty carries over to risk estimate uncertainty and uncertainty of the dose-response relationship. Cancer is usually considered as a slowly evolving disease. An increase in TCDD dose may result in an increase of the observable cancer response not until some latency time period has elapsed. This fact needs careful consideration when a dose-response relationship is to be established. Toxicokinetic models are capable to reconstruct TCDD exposure concentrations during a lifetime such that time-dependent TCDD dose metrics like the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) can be constructed for each individual cohort member. Two potentially crucial model assumptions for estimating the exposure of a person are the assumption of lifetime constancy of total lipid volume (TLV) of the human body and the assumption of a simple linear kinetic of TCDD elimination. In 1995 a modified Michaelis-Menten kinetic (also known as Carrier kinetic) has been suggested to link the TCDD elimination rate to the available TCDD amount in the body. That is, TCDD elimination would be faster, of nearly the same rate, or slower under this kinetic than under a simple linear kinetic when the individual would be highly, moderately, or slightly

  8. Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County

    2017-08-07

    As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict

  9. THE AVERAGE ANNUAL EFFECTIVE DOSES FOR THE POPULATION IN THE SETTLEMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ATTRIBUTED TO ZONES OF RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION DUE TO THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT (FOR ZONATION PURPOSES, 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ja. Bruk

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chernobyl accident in 1986 is one of the most large-scale radiation accidents in the world. It led to radioactive contamination of large areas in the European part of the Russian Federation and at the neighboring countries. Now, there are more than 4000 settlements with the total population of 1.5 million in the radioactively contaminated areas of the Russian Federation. The Bryansk region is the most intensely contaminated region. For example, the Krasnogorskiy district still has settlements with the level of soil contamination by cesium-137 exceeding 40 Cu/km2. The regions of Tula, Kaluga and Orel are also significantly affected. In addition to these four regions, there are 10 more regions with the radioactively contaminated settlements. After the Chernobyl accident, the affected areas were divided into zones of radioactive contamination. The attribution of the settlements to a particular zone is determined by the level of soil contamination with 137Cs and by a value of the average annual effective dose that could be formed in the absence of: 1 active measures for radiation protection, and 2 self-limitation in consumption of the local food products. The main regulatory document on this issue is the Federal law № 1244-1 (dated May, 15,1991 «On the social protection of the citizens who have been exposed to radiation as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant». The law extends to the territories, where, since 1991: – The average annual effective dose for the population exceeds 1 mSv (the value of effective dose that could be formed in the absence of active radiation protection measures and self-limitation in consumption of the local food products; – Soil surface contamination with cesium-137 exceeds 1 Cu/km2. The paper presents results of calculations of the average effective doses in 2014. The purpose was to use the dose values (SGED90 in zonation of contaminated territories. Therefore, the

  10. Uncertainty Quantification in Fatigue Crack Growth Prognosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Sankararaman

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology to quantify the uncertainty in fatigue crack growth prognosis, applied to structures with complicated geometry and subjected to variable amplitude multi-axial loading. Finite element analysis is used to address the complicated geometry and calculate the stress intensity factors. Multi-modal stress intensity factors due to multi-axial loading are combined to calculate an equivalent stress intensity factor using a characteristic plane approach. Crack growth under variable amplitude loading is modeled using a modified Paris law that includes retardation effects. During cycle-by-cycle integration of the crack growth law, a Gaussian process surrogate model is used to replace the expensive finite element analysis. The effect of different types of uncertainty – physical variability, data uncertainty and modeling errors – on crack growth prediction is investigated. The various sources of uncertainty include, but not limited to, variability in loading conditions, material parameters, experimental data, model uncertainty, etc. Three different types of modeling errors – crack growth model error, discretization error and surrogate model error – are included in analysis. The different types of uncertainty are incorporated into the crack growth prediction methodology to predict the probability distribution of crack size as a function of number of load cycles. The proposed method is illustrated using an application problem, surface cracking in a cylindrical structure.

  11. About uncertainties in practical salinity calculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Le Menn

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Salinity is a quantity computed, in the actual state of the art, from conductivity ratio measurements, knowing temperature and pressure at the time of the measurement and using the Practical Salinity Scale algorithm of 1978 (PSS-78 which gives practical salinity values S. The uncertainty expected on PSS-78 values is ±0.002, but nothing has ever been detailed about the method to work out this uncertainty, and the sources of errors to include in this calculation. Following a guide edited by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM, this paper assess, by two independent methods, the uncertainties of salinity values obtained from a laboratory salinometer and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD measurements after laboratory calibration of a conductivity cell. The results show that the part due to the PSS-78 relations fits is sometimes as much significant as the instruments one's. This is particularly the case with CTD measurements where correlations between the variables contribute to decrease largely the uncertainty on S, even when the expanded uncertainties on conductivity cells calibrations are largely up of 0.002 mS/cm. The relations given in this publication, and obtained with the normalized GUM method, allow a real analysis of the uncertainties sources and they can be used in a more general way, with instruments having different specifications.

  12. Managing risk and uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Coulson-Thomas, Colin

    2015-01-01

    Examines risk management and contemporary issues concerning risk governance from a board perspective, including risk tolerance, innovation, insurance, balancing risks and other factors, risk and strategies of diversification or focus, increasing flexibility to cope with uncertainty, periodic planning versus intelligent steering, and limiting downside risks and adverse consequences.

  13. Vehicle Routing under Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Máhr, T.

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, the main focus is on the study of a real-world transportation problem with uncertainties, and on the comparison of a centralized and a distributed solution approach in the context of this problem. We formalize the real-world problem, and provide a general framework to extend it with

  14. Investment and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.

    2006-01-01

    A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty surro...... of the depression: rather, its slump helped to propel the wider collapse...

  15. Justice under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cettolin, E.; Riedl, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    An important element for the public support of policies is their perceived justice. At the same time most policy choices have uncertain outcomes. We report the results of a first experiment investigating just allocations of resources when some recipients are exposed to uncertainty. Although, under c

  16. manage employee uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范梦璇

    2015-01-01

    <正>Employ change-related uncertainty is a condition that under current continually changing business environment,the organizations also have to change,the change include strategic direction,structure and staffing levels to help company to keep competitive(Armenakis&Bedeian,1999);However;these

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Berry, R.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2011-12-01

    We address challenges that sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods face when dealing with complex computational models. In particular, climate models are computationally expensive and typically depend on a large number of input parameters. We consider the Community Land Model (CLM), which consists of a nested computational grid hierarchy designed to represent the spatial heterogeneity of the land surface. Each computational cell can be composed of multiple land types, and each land type can incorporate one or more sub-models describing the spatial and depth variability. Even for simulations at a regional scale, the computational cost of a single run is quite high and the number of parameters that control the model behavior is very large. Therefore, the parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation face significant difficulties for climate models. This work employs several algorithmic avenues to address some of the challenges encountered by classical uncertainty quantification methodologies when dealing with expensive computational models, specifically focusing on the CLM as a primary application. First of all, since the available climate model predictions are extremely sparse due to the high computational cost of model runs, we adopt a Bayesian framework that effectively incorporates this lack-of-knowledge as a source of uncertainty, and produces robust predictions with quantified uncertainty even if the model runs are extremely sparse. In particular, we infer Polynomial Chaos spectral expansions that effectively encode the uncertain input-output relationship and allow efficient propagation of all sources of input uncertainties to outputs of interest. Secondly, the predictability analysis of climate models strongly suffers from the curse of dimensionality, i.e. the large number of input parameters. While single-parameter perturbation studies can be efficiently performed in a parallel fashion, the multivariate uncertainty analysis

  18. Model Uncertainty for Bilinear Hysteretic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1984-01-01

    is related to the concept of a failure surface (or limit state surface) in the n-dimensional basic variable space then model uncertainty is at least due to the neglected variables, the modelling of the failure surface and the computational technique used. A more precise definition is given in section 2...

  19. Handling Unquantifiable Uncertainties in Landslide Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2015-12-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. Slope stability assessment can be used to guide decisions about the management of landslide risk, but its usefulness can be challenged by high levels of uncertainty in predicting landslide occurrence. Prediction uncertainty may be associated with the choice of model that is used to assess slope stability, the quality of the available input data, or a lack of knowledge of how future climatic and socio-economic changes may affect future landslide risk. While some of these uncertainties can be characterised by relatively well-defined probability distributions, for other uncertainties, such as those linked to climate change, there is no agreement on what probability distribution should be used to characterise them. This latter type of uncertainty, often referred to as deep uncertainty, means that robust policies need to be developed that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. In our study the impact of deep uncertainty on slope stability predictions is assessed in a quantitative and structured manner using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM). In particular, we use and combine several GSA methods including the Method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis and CART, as well as advanced visualization tools. Our example application is a slope in the Caribbean, an area that is naturally susceptible to landslides due to a combination of high rainfall rates, steep slopes, and highly weathered residual soils. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and changing climate may further exacerbate landslide risk in the future. Our example shows how we can gain useful information in the presence of deep uncertainty by combining physically based models with GSA in a scenario discovery framework.

  20. Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delchini, Marc-Olivier G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Popov, Emilian L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Pointer, William David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Swiler, Laura P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-30

    Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results

  1. Uncertainty Estimates for Theoretical Atomic and Molecular Data

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, H -K; Bartschat, K; Csaszar, A G; Drake, G W F; Kirchner, T; Kokoouline, V; Tennyson, J

    2016-01-01

    Sources of uncertainty are reviewed for calculated atomic and molecular data that are important for plasma modeling: atomic and molecular structure and cross sections for electron-atom, electron-molecule, and heavy particle collisions. We concentrate on model uncertainties due to approximations to the fundamental many-body quantum mechanical equations and we aim to provide guidelines to estimate uncertainties as a routine part of computations of data for structure and scattering.

  2. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doi, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Lagarde, F. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine; Falk, R.; Swedjemark, G.A. [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m{sup 3}, an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs.

  3. Improving the uncertainty of photomask linewidth measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedulla, J. M.; Potzick, James; Silver, Richard M.

    2004-05-01

    The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is currently developing a photomask linewidth standard (SRM 2059) with a lower expected uncertainty of calibration than the previous NIST standards (SRMs 473, 475, 476). In calibrating these standards, optical simulation modeling has been used to predict the microscope image intensity profiles, which are then compared to the experimental profiles to determine the certified linewidths. Consequently, the total uncertainty in the linewidth calibration is a result of uncertainty components from the optical simulation modeling and uncertainty due to experimental errors or approximations (e.g., tool imaging errors and material characterization errors). Errors of approximation in the simulation model and uncertainty in the parameters used in the model can contribute a large component to the total linewidth uncertainty. We have studied the effects of model parameter variation on measurement uncertainty using several different optical simulation programs that utilize different mathematical techniques. We have also evaluated the effects of chrome edge runout and varying indices of refraction on the linewidth images. There are several experimental parameters that are not ordinarily included in the modeling simulation. For example, the modeling programs assume a uniform illuminating field (e.g., Koehler illumination), ideal optics and perfect optical alignment. In practice, determining whether Koehler illumination has been achieved is difficult, and the optical components and their alignments are never ideal. We will present some techniques for evaluating Koehler illumination and methods to compensate for scattered (flare) light. Any such experimental elements, that are assumed accurate in the modeling, may actually present significant components to the uncertainty and need to be quantitatively estimated. The present state of metrology does not permit the absolute calibration of linewidth standards to the level of

  4. Uncertainty Analysis of Light Water Reactor Fuel Lattices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Arenas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study explored the calculation of uncertainty based on available cross-section covariance data and computational tool on fuel lattice levels, which included pin cell and the fuel assembly models. Uncertainty variations due to temperatures changes and different fuel compositions are the main focus of this analysis. Selected assemblies and unit pin cells were analyzed according to the OECD LWR UAM benchmark specifications. Criticality and uncertainty analysis were performed using TSUNAMI-2D sequence in SCALE 6.1. It was found that uncertainties increase with increasing temperature, while kinf decreases. This increase in the uncertainty is due to the increase in sensitivity of the largest contributing reaction of uncertainty, namely, the neutron capture reaction 238U(n, γ due to the Doppler broadening. In addition, three types (UOX, MOX, and UOX-Gd2O3 of fuel material compositions were analyzed. A remarkable increase in uncertainty in kinf was observed for the case of MOX fuel. The increase in uncertainty of kinf in MOX fuel was nearly twice the corresponding value in UOX fuel. The neutron-nuclide reaction of 238U, mainly inelastic scattering (n, n′, contributed the most to the uncertainties in the MOX fuel, shifting the neutron spectrum to higher energy compared to the UOX fuel.

  5. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchner, G. [Univ. of Bremen (Germany); Peterson, R. [AECL, Chalk River, ON (Canada)] [and others

    1996-11-01

    Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

  6. A Probability Approach to the Study on Uncertainty Effects on Gamma Index Evaluations in Radiation Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Cutanda Henríquez

    2011-01-01

    computation and experimental uncertainty. This work utilizes mathematical methods to analyse comparisons, so that uncertainty can be taken into account. Therefore, false rejections due to uncertainty do not take place and there is no need to expand tolerances to take uncertainty into account. The methods provided are based on the rules of uncertainty propagation and help obtain rigorous pass/fail criteria, based on experimental information.

  7. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    respects necessary scientific precision and problem-solving approach of the field of engineering studies. Competences should be presented in a way that is methodologically and didactically optimised for employees with a mostly work-based vocational qualification and should at the same time be appealing...... and motivating to this important group. The developed e-learning system consists on 12 different chapters dealing with the following topics: 1. Basics 2. Traceability and measurement uncertainty 3. Coordinate metrology 4. Form measurement 5. Surface testing 6. Optical measurement and testing 7. Measuring rooms 8....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e...

  8. How Uncertain is Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vámos, Tibor

    The gist of the paper is the fundamental uncertain nature of all kinds of uncertainties and consequently a critical epistemic review of historical and recent approaches, computational methods, algorithms. The review follows the development of the notion from the beginnings of thinking, via the Aristotelian and Skeptic view, the medieval nominalism and the influential pioneering metaphors of ancient India and Persia to the birth of modern mathematical disciplinary reasoning. Discussing the models of uncertainty, e.g. the statistical, other physical and psychological background we reach a pragmatic model related estimation perspective, a balanced application orientation for different problem areas. Data mining, game theories and recent advances in approximation algorithms are discussed in this spirit of modest reasoning.

  9. Coalition Formation under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Unfortunately, many current approaches to coalition formation lack provi- sions for uncertainty. This prevents application of coalition formation techniques ...should also include mechanisms and processing techniques that provide stabil- ity, scalability, and, at a minimum, optimality relative to agent beliefs...relocate a piano . For the sake of simplicity, assume payment is divided evenly among the participants in the move (i.e., each mover has the same utility or

  10. Optimizing production under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept o...... the relative benefits and of using the state-contingent approach in a norma-tive context, compared to the EV model....

  11. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF

    1990-01-01

    This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und

  12. Aggregating and Communicating Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    means for identifying and communicating uncertainty. i 12- APPENDIX A BIBLIOGRAPHY j| 1. Ajzen , Icek ; "Intuitive Theories of Events and the Effects...disregarding valid but noncausal information." (Icak Ajzen , "Intuitive Theo- ries of Events and the Effects of Base-Rate Information on Prediction...9 4i,* ,4.. -. .- S % to the criterion while disregarding valid but noncausal information." (Icak Ajzen , "Intuitive Theories of Events and the Effects

  13. Variants of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-15

    Variants of Uncertainty Daniel Kahneman University of British Columbia Amos Tversky Stanford University DTI-C &%E-IECTE ~JUNO 1i 19 8 1j May 15, 1981... Dennett , 1979) in which different parts have ac- cess to different data, assign then different weights and hold different views of the situation...2robable and t..h1 provable. Oxford- Claredor Press, 1977. Dennett , D.C. Brainstorms. Hassocks: Harvester, 1979. Donchin, E., Ritter, W. & McCallum, W.C

  14. The treatment of uncertainty in airport strategic planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakkel, J.H.

    2010-01-01

    The treatment of uncertainty in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general and of mainports such as airports and seaports is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regula

  15. Uncertainty Quantification in Aeroelasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beran, Philip; Stanford, Bret; Schrock, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    Physical interactions between a fluid and structure, potentially manifested as self-sustained or divergent oscillations, can be sensitive to many parameters whose values are uncertain. Of interest here are aircraft aeroelastic interactions, which must be accounted for in aircraft certification and design. Deterministic prediction of these aeroelastic behaviors can be difficult owing to physical and computational complexity. New challenges are introduced when physical parameters and elements of the modeling process are uncertain. By viewing aeroelasticity through a nondeterministic prism, where key quantities are assumed stochastic, one may gain insights into how to reduce system uncertainty, increase system robustness, and maintain aeroelastic safety. This article reviews uncertainty quantification in aeroelasticity using traditional analytical techniques not reliant on computational fluid dynamics; compares and contrasts this work with emerging methods based on computational fluid dynamics, which target richer physics; and reviews the state of the art in aeroelastic optimization under uncertainty. Barriers to continued progress, for example, the so-called curse of dimensionality, are discussed.

  16. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  17. Uncertainty quantified trait predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazayeli, Farideh; Kattge, Jens; Banerjee, Arindam; Schrodt, Franziska; Reich, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Functional traits of organisms are key to understanding and predicting biodiversity and ecological change, which motivates continuous collection of traits and their integration into global databases. Such composite trait matrices are inherently sparse, severely limiting their usefulness for further analyses. On the other hand, traits are characterized by the phylogenetic trait signal, trait-trait correlations and environmental constraints, all of which provide information that could be used to statistically fill gaps. We propose the application of probabilistic models which, for the first time, utilize all three characteristics to fill gaps in trait databases and predict trait values at larger spatial scales. For this purpose we introduce BHPMF, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF). PMF is a machine learning technique which exploits the correlation structure of sparse matrices to impute missing entries. BHPMF additionally utilizes the taxonomic hierarchy for trait prediction. Implemented in the context of a Gibbs Sampler MCMC approach BHPMF provides uncertainty estimates for each trait prediction. We present comprehensive experimental results on the problem of plant trait prediction using the largest database of plant traits, where BHPMF shows strong empirical performance in uncertainty quantified trait prediction, outperforming the state-of-the-art based on point estimates. Further, we show that BHPMF is more accurate when it is confident, whereas the error is high when the uncertainty is high.

  18. Participation under Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boudourides, Moses A. [Univ. of Patras, Rio-Patras (Greece). Dept. of Mathematics

    2003-10-01

    This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke.

  19. Peer review of HEDR uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, F.O.

    1993-06-01

    This report consists of a detailed documentation of the writings and deliberations of the peer review panel that met on May 24--25, 1993 in Richland, Washington to evaluate your draft report ``Uncertainty/Sensitivity Analysis Plan`` (PNWD-2124 HEDR). The fact that uncertainties are being considered in temporally and spatially varying parameters through the use of alternative time histories and spatial patterns deserves special commendation. It is important to identify early those model components and parameters that will have the most influence on the magnitude and uncertainty of the dose estimates. These are the items that should be investigated most intensively prior to committing to a final set of results.

  20. Uncertainty in 3D gel dosimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Deene, Yves; Jirasek, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) gel dosimetry has a unique role to play in safeguarding conformal radiotherapy treatments as the technique can cover the full treatment chain and provides the radiation oncologist with the integrated dose distribution in 3D. It can also be applied to benchmark new treatment strategies such as image guided and tracking radiotherapy techniques. A major obstacle that has hindered the wider dissemination of gel dosimetry in radiotherapy centres is a lack of confidence in the reliability of the measured dose distribution. Uncertainties in 3D dosimeters are attributed to both dosimeter properties and scanning performance. In polymer gel dosimetry with MRI readout, discrepancies in dose response of large polymer gel dosimeters versus small calibration phantoms have been reported which can lead to significant inaccuracies in the dose maps. The sources of error in polymer gel dosimetry with MRI readout are well understood and it has been demonstrated that with a carefully designed scanning protocol, the overall uncertainty in absolute dose that can currently be obtained falls within 5% on an individual voxel basis, for a minimum voxel size of 5 mm3. However, several research groups have chosen to use polymer gel dosimetry in a relative manner by normalizing the dose distribution towards an internal reference dose within the gel dosimeter phantom. 3D dosimetry with optical scanning has also been mostly applied in a relative way, although in principle absolute calibration is possible. As the optical absorption in 3D dosimeters is less dependent on temperature it can be expected that the achievable accuracy is higher with optical CT. The precision in optical scanning of 3D dosimeters depends to a large extend on the performance of the detector. 3D dosimetry with X-ray CT readout is a low contrast imaging modality for polymer gel dosimetry. Sources of error in x-ray CT polymer gel dosimetry (XCT) are currently under investigation and include inherent

  1. Uncertainty in magnetic activity indices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Magnetic activity indices are widely used in theoretical studies of solar-terrestrial coupling and space weather prediction. However, the indices suffer from various uncertainties, which limit their application and even mislead to incorrect conclu-sion. In this paper we analyze three most popular indices, Kp, AE and Dst. Three categories of uncertainties in magnetic indices are discussed: "data uncertainty" originating from inadequate data processing, "station uncertainty" caused by in-complete station covering, and "physical uncertainty" stemming from unclear physical mechanism. A comparison between magnetic disturbances and related indices indicate that the residual Sq will cause an uncertainty of 1―2 in K meas-urement, the uncertainty in saturated AE is as much as 50%, and the uncertainty in Dst index caused by the partial ring currents is about a half of the partial ring cur-rent.

  2. Uncertainty in magnetic activity indices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU WenYao

    2008-01-01

    Magnetic activity indices are widely used in theoretical studies of solar-terrestrial coupling and space weather prediction. However, the indices suffer from various uncertainties, which limit their application and even mislead to incorrect conclu-sion. In this paper we analyze three most popular indices, Kp, AE and Dst. Three categories of uncertainties in magnetic indices are discussed: "data uncertainty" originating from inadequate data processing, "station uncertainty" caused by in-complete station covering, and "physical uncertainty" stemming from unclear physical mechanism. A comparison between magnetic disturbances and related indices indicate that the residual Sq will cause an uncertainty of 1-2 in K meas-urement, the uncertainty in saturated AE is as much as 50%, and the uncertainty in Dst index caused by the partial ring currents is about a half of the partial ring cur-rent.

  3. Dose mapping for documentation of radiation sterilization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, A.

    1999-01-01

    The radiation sterilization standards EN 552 and ISO 11137 require that dose mapping in real or simulated product be carried in connection with the process qualification. This paper reviews the recommendations given in the standards and discusses the difficulties and limitations of practical dose...... mapping. The paper further gives recommendations for effective dose mapping including traceable dosimetry, documented procedures for placement of dosimeters, and evaluation of measurement uncertainties. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  4. A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.

    2017-03-24

    As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.

  5. S-parameter uncertainty computations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidkjær, Jens

    1993-01-01

    A method for computing uncertainties of measured s-parameters is presented. Unlike the specification software provided with network analyzers, the new method is capable of calculating the uncertainties of arbitrary s-parameter sets and instrument settings.......A method for computing uncertainties of measured s-parameters is presented. Unlike the specification software provided with network analyzers, the new method is capable of calculating the uncertainties of arbitrary s-parameter sets and instrument settings....

  6. Pauli effects in uncertainty relations

    CERN Document Server

    Toranzo, I V; Esquivel, R O; Dehesa, J S

    2014-01-01

    In this letter we analyze the effect of the spin dimensionality of a physical system in two mathematical formulations of the uncertainty principle: a generalized Heisenberg uncertainty relation valid for all antisymmetric N-fermion wavefunctions, and the Fisher-information- based uncertainty relation valid for all antisymmetric N-fermion wavefunctions of central potentials. The accuracy of these spin-modified uncertainty relations is examined for all atoms from Hydrogen to Lawrencium in a self-consistent framework.

  7. Uncertainties in the estimation of max

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Girish C Joshi; Mukat Lal Sharma

    2008-11-01

    In the present paper, the parameters affecting the uncertainties on the estimation of max have been investigated by exploring different methodologies being used in the analysis of seismicity catalogue and estimation of seismicity parameters. A critical issue to be addressed before any scientific analysis is to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the data. The empirical relationships between different magnitude scales have been used for conversions for homogenization of seismicity catalogues to be used for further seismic hazard assessment studies. An endeavour has been made to quantify the uncertainties due to magnitude conversions and the seismic hazard parameters are then estimated using different methods to consider the epistemic uncertainty in the process. The study area chosen is around Delhi. The value and the magnitude of completeness for the four seismogenic sources considered around Delhi varied more than 40% using the three catalogues compiled based on different magnitude conversion relationships. The effect of the uncertainties has been then shown on the estimation of max and the probabilities of occurrence of different magnitudes. It has been emphasized to consider the uncertainties and their quantification to carry out seismic hazard assessment and in turn the seismic microzonation.

  8. Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Curtis E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.

  9. Harderian Gland Tumorigenesis: Low-Dose and LET Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Polly Y. [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States). Biosciences Div.; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Cucinotta, Francis A. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States). Dept. of Health Physics and Diagnostic Sciences; Bjornstad, Kathleen A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Bakke, James [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States). Biosciences Div.; Rosen, Chris J. [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States). Biosciences Div.; Du, Nicholas [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Fairchild, David G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.; Cacao, Eliedonna [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States). Dept. of Health Physics and Diagnostic Sciences; Blakely, Eleanor A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Life Sciences Div.

    2016-04-19

    Increased cancer risk remains a primary concern for travel into deep space and may preclude manned missions to Mars due to large uncertainties that currently exist in estimating cancer risk from the spectrum of radiations found in space with the very limited available human epidemiological radiation-induced cancer data. Existing data on human risk of cancer from X-ray and gamma-ray exposure must be scaled to the many types and fluences of radiations found in space using radiation quality factors and dose-rate modification factors, and assuming linearity of response since the shapes of the dose responses at low doses below 100 mSv are unknown. The goal of this work was to reduce uncertainties in the relative biological effect (RBE) and linear energy transfer (LET) relationship for space-relevant doses of charged-particle radiation-induced carcinogenesis. The historical data from the studies of Fry et al. and Alpen et al. for Harderian gland (HG) tumors in the female CB6F1 strain of mouse represent the most complete set of experimental observations, including dose dependence, available on a specific radiation-induced tumor in an experimental animal using heavy ion beams that are found in the cosmic radiation spectrum. However, these data lack complete information on low-dose responses below 0.1 Gy, and for chronic low-dose-rate exposures, and there are gaps in the LET region between 25 and 190 keV/μm. In this study, we used the historical HG tumorigenesis data as reference, and obtained HG tumor data for 260 MeV/u silicon (LET ~70 keV/μm) and 1,000 MeV/u titanium (LET ~100 keV/μm) to fill existing gaps of data in this LET range to improve our understanding of the dose-response curve at low doses, to test for deviations from linearity and to provide RBE estimates. Animals were also exposed to five daily fractions of 0.026 or 0.052 Gy of 1,000 MeV/u titanium ions to simulate chronic exposure, and HG tumorigenesis from this fractionated study were compared to the

  10. Harderian Gland Tumorigenesis: Low-Dose and LET Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Polly Y; Cucinotta, Francis A; Bjornstad, Kathleen A; Bakke, James; Rosen, Chris J; Du, Nicholas; Fairchild, David G; Cacao, Eliedonna; Blakely, Eleanor A

    2016-05-01

    Increased cancer risk remains a primary concern for travel into deep space and may preclude manned missions to Mars due to large uncertainties that currently exist in estimating cancer risk from the spectrum of radiations found in space with the very limited available human epidemiological radiation-induced cancer data. Existing data on human risk of cancer from X-ray and gamma-ray exposure must be scaled to the many types and fluences of radiations found in space using radiation quality factors and dose-rate modification factors, and assuming linearity of response since the shapes of the dose responses at low doses below 100 mSv are unknown. The goal of this work was to reduce uncertainties in the relative biological effect (RBE) and linear energy transfer (LET) relationship for space-relevant doses of charged-particle radiation-induced carcinogenesis. The historical data from the studies of Fry et al. and Alpen et al. for Harderian gland (HG) tumors in the female CB6F1 strain of mouse represent the most complete set of experimental observations, including dose dependence, available on a specific radiation-induced tumor in an experimental animal using heavy ion beams that are found in the cosmic radiation spectrum. However, these data lack complete information on low-dose responses below 0.1 Gy, and for chronic low-dose-rate exposures, and there are gaps in the LET region between 25 and 190 keV/μm. In this study, we used the historical HG tumorigenesis data as reference, and obtained HG tumor data for 260 MeV/u silicon (LET ∼70 keV/μm) and 1,000 MeV/u titanium (LET ∼100 keV/μm) to fill existing gaps of data in this LET range to improve our understanding of the dose-response curve at low doses, to test for deviations from linearity and to provide RBE estimates. Animals were also exposed to five daily fractions of 0.026 or 0.052 Gy of 1,000 MeV/u titanium ions to simulate chronic exposure, and HG tumorigenesis from this fractionated study were compared to the

  11. A review of uncertainty propagation in orbital mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Ya-zhong; Yang, Zhen

    2017-02-01

    Orbital uncertainty propagation plays an important role in space situational awareness related missions such as tracking and data association, conjunction assessment, sensor resource management and anomaly detection. Linear models and Monte Carlo simulation were primarily used to propagate uncertainties. However, due to the nonlinear nature of orbital dynamics, problems such as low precision and intensive computation have greatly hampered the application of these methods. Aiming at solving these problems, many nonlinear uncertainty propagators have been proposed in the past two decades. To motivate this research area and facilitate the development of orbital uncertainty propagation, this paper summarizes the existing linear and nonlinear uncertainty propagators and their associated applications in the field of orbital mechanics. Frameworks of methods for orbital uncertainty propagation, the advantages and drawbacks of different methods, as well as potential directions for future efforts are also discussed.

  12. 不同剂量新鲜冰冻血浆治疗肝硬化腹水的临床观察%Clinical observation of different doses of fresh frozen plasma in the treatment of ascites due to liver cirrhosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    付昕; 马春玲; 陈艳清; 李婉葵; 冯梅华

    2015-01-01

    目的 观察不同剂量新鲜冰冻血浆(fresh frozen plasma,FFP)治疗肝硬化腹水的临床疗效与不良反应.方法 将90例符合纳入标准的肝硬化腹水患者随机分为FFP小剂量组(5 ml/kg)、中剂量组(10 ml/kg)和高剂量组(15 ml/kg),每组30例.三组均在统一治疗方案基础上输注不同剂量的FFP,疗程为2周.观察三组治疗前后凝血功能的变化、治疗后总体疗效及不良反应.结果 FFP小剂量组、中剂量组及高剂量组治疗后凝血酶原时间(PT)、活化部分凝血酶时间(APTT)、国际标准化比值(INR)均下降,纤维蛋白原(FIB)均升高,但中剂量组及高剂量组疗效优于小剂量组(P<0.05),中剂量组与高剂量组比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05).FFP小剂量组总有效率为53.33%,中剂量组为80.00%,高剂量组为83.33%.三组比较,中剂量组和高剂量组总有效率高于小剂量组(P<0.05),中剂量组和高剂量组比较无统计学差异(P>0.05).小剂量组和中剂量组未见明显不良反应,高剂量组出现1例轻度过敏反应及1例发热反应.结论 新鲜冰冻血浆治疗肝硬化腹水剂量为10 ml/kg时疗效优于5 ml/kg,且不良反应少.%Objective To observe the clinical curative effect and adverse reaction of different doses of fresh frozen plasma (FFP) in the treatment of ascites due to liver cirrhosis.Methods 90 patients with ascites due to liver cirrhosis were randomly divided into low dose of FFP group (5 ml/kg),middle dose of FFP group (10 ml/ kg) and high dose of FFP group (15 ml/kg),30 cases in each group.Different doses of FFP were mainlined in three groups on the basis of a unified scheme.The course of treatment lasted 2 weeks.Blood coagulative function,the overall effect and adverse reaction were observed in three groups before and after treatment.Results After treatment,PT,APTT and INR decreased in all three groups,while FIB increased.Curative effect of middle dose group and high dose group were better

  13. SU-E-T-615: Plan Comparison Between Photon IMRT and Proton Plans Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, C; Wessels, B; Jesseph, F; Mattson, D; Mansur, D [Dept of Radiation Oncology, University Hospitals Case Medical Center, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: In this study, we investigate the effect of setup uncertainty on DVH calculations which may impact plan comparison. Methods: Treatment plans (6 MV VMAT calculated on Pinnacle TPS) were chosen for different disease sites: brain, prostate, H&N and spine in this retrospective study. A proton plan (PP) using double scattering beams was generated for each selected VMAT plan subject to the same set of dose-volume constraints as in VMAT. An uncertainty analysis was incorporated on the DVH calculations in which isocenter shifts from 1 to 5 mm in each of the ±x, ±y and ±z directions were used to simulate the setup uncertainty and residual positioning errors. A total of 40 different combinations of isocenter shifts were used in the re-calculation of DVH of the PTV and the various OARs for both the VMAT and the corresponding PT. Results: For the brain case, both VMAT and PP are comparable in PTV coverage and OAR sparing, and VMAT is a clear choice for treatment due to its ease of delivery. However, when incorporating isoshifts in DVH calculations, a significant change in dose-volume relationship emerges. For example, both VMAT and PT provide adequate coverage, even with ±3mm isoshift. However, +3mm isoshift results in increase of V40(Lcochlea, VMAT) from 7.2% in the original plan to 45% and V40(R cochlea, VMAT) from 75% to 92%. For protons, V40(Lcochlea, PT) increases from 62% in the initial plan to 75%, while V40(Rcochea, PT) increases from 7% to 26%. Conclusion: DVH alone may not be sufficient to allow an unequivocal decision in plan comparison, especially when two rival plans are very similar in both PTV coverage and OAR sparing. It is a good practice to incorporate uncertainty analysis on photon and proton plan comparison studies to test the plan robustness in plan evaluation.

  14. Uncertainty Principles on Two Step Nilpotent Lie Groups

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Ray

    2001-08-01

    We extend an uncertainty principle due to Cowling and Price to two step nilpotent Lie groups, which generalizes a classical theorem of Hardy. We also prove an analogue of Heisenberg inequality on two step nilpotent Lie groups.

  15. An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the...

  16. SU-E-T-632: Preliminary Study On Treating Nose Skin Using Energy and Intensity Modulated Electron Beams with Monte Carlo Based Dose Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, L; Eldib, A; Li, J; Price, R; Ma, C [Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Uneven nose surfaces and air cavities underneath and the use of bolus present complexity and dose uncertainty when using a single electron energy beam to plan treatments of nose skin with a pencil beam-based planning system. This work demonstrates more accurate dose calculation and more optimal planning using energy and intensity modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT) delivered with a pMLC. Methods: An in-house developed Monte Carlo (MC)-based dose calculation/optimization planning system was employed for treatment planning. Phase space data (6, 9, 12 and 15 MeV) were used as an input source for MC