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Sample records for distributed lag model

  1. Deterministic Properties of Serially Connected Distributed Lag Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Nowak

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Distributed lag models are an important tool in modeling dynamic systems in economics. In the analysis of composite forms of such models, the component models are ordered in parallel (with the same independent variable and/or in series (where the independent variable is also the dependent variable in the preceding model. This paper presents an analysis of certain deterministic properties of composite distributed lag models composed of component distributed lag models arranged in sequence, and their asymptotic properties in particular. The models considered are in discrete form. Even though the paper focuses on deterministic properties of distributed lag models, the derivations are based on analytical tools commonly used in probability theory such as probability distributions and the central limit theorem. (original abstract

  2. Time lags in biological models

    CERN Document Server

    MacDonald, Norman

    1978-01-01

    In many biological models it is necessary to allow the rates of change of the variables to depend on the past history, rather than only the current values, of the variables. The models may require discrete lags, with the use of delay-differential equations, or distributed lags, with the use of integro-differential equations. In these lecture notes I discuss the reasons for including lags, especially distributed lags, in biological models. These reasons may be inherent in the system studied, or may be the result of simplifying assumptions made in the model used. I examine some of the techniques available for studying the solution of the equations. A large proportion of the material presented relates to a special method that can be applied to a particular class of distributed lags. This method uses an extended set of ordinary differential equations. I examine the local stability of equilibrium points, and the existence and frequency of periodic solutions. I discuss the qualitative effects of lags, and how these...

  3. Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Huang; Francesca Dominici; Michelle Bell

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP ...

  4. Improved Testing of Distributed Lag Model in Presence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The finite distributed lag models (DLM) are often used in econometrics and statistics. Application of the ordinary least square (OLS) directly on the DLM for estimation may have serious problems. To overcome these problems, some alternative estimation procedures are available in the literature. One popular method to ...

  5. A penalized framework for distributed lag non-linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparrini, Antonio; Scheipl, Fabian; Armstrong, Ben; Kenward, Michael G

    2017-09-01

    Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommodating assumptions on the shape of the lag structure through specific penalties. In addition, this framework includes, as special cases, simpler models previously proposed for linear relationships (DLMs). Alternative versions of penalized DLNMs are compared with each other and with the standard unpenalized version in a simulation study. Results show that this penalized extension to the DLNM class provides greater flexibility and improved inferential properties. The framework exploits recent theoretical developments of GAMs and is implemented using efficient routines within freely available software. Real-data applications are illustrated through two reproducible examples in time series and survival analysis. © 2017 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  6. Modeling exposure–lag–response associations with distributed lag non-linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparrini, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure–lag–response association. In this contribution, I illustrate a general statistical framework for such associations, established through the extension of distributed lag non-linear models, originally developed in time series analysis. This modeling class is based on the definition of a cross-basis, obtained by the combination of two functions to flexibly model linear or nonlinear exposure-responses and the lag structure of the relationship, respectively. The methodology is illustrated with an example application to cohort data and validated through a simulation study. This modeling framework generalizes to various study designs and regression models, and can be applied to study the health effects of protracted exposures to environmental factors, drugs or carcinogenic agents, among others. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24027094

  7. Exposure-lag-response in Longitudinal Studies: Application of Distributed Lag Non-linear Models in an Occupational Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neophytou, Andreas M; Picciotto, Sally; Brown, Daniel M; Gallagher, Lisa E; Checkoway, Harvey; Eisen, Ellen A; Costello, Sadie

    2018-02-13

    Prolonged exposures can have complex relationships with health outcomes, as timing, duration, and intensity of exposure are all potentially relevant. Summary measures such as cumulative exposure or average intensity of exposure may not fully capture these relationships. We applied penalized and unpenalized distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) with flexible exposure-response and lag-response functions in order to examine the association between crystalline silica exposure and mortality from lung cancer and non-malignant respiratory disease in a cohort study of 2,342 California diatomaceous earth workers, followed 1942-2011. We also assessed associations using simple measures of cumulative exposure assuming linear exposure-response and constant lag-response. Measures of association from DLNMs were generally higher than from simpler models. Rate ratios from penalized DLNMs corresponding to average daily exposures of 0.4 mg/m3 during lag years 31-50 prior to the age of observed cases were 1.47 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92, 2.35) for lung cancer and 1.80 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.85) for non-malignant respiratory disease. Rate ratios from the simpler models for the same exposure scenario were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.89-1.48) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.03-1.46) respectively. Longitudinal cohort studies of prolonged exposures and chronic health outcomes should explore methods allowing for flexibility and non-linearities in the exposure-lag-response. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

  8. Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.

  9. Forecasting economy with Bayesian autoregressive distributed lag model: choosing optimal prior in economic downturn

    OpenAIRE

    Bušs, Ginters

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a sharp economic slowdown changes the optimal prior in two directions. First, it changes the structure of the optimal weight prior, setting smaller weight on the lagged dependent variable compared to varia...

  10. An Autoregressive and Distributed Lag Model Approach to Inflation in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chimere Okechukwu Iheonu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study scrutinized the precursors of Inflation in Nigeria between the periods 1980 to 2014. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was engaged to test for stationarity of the variables while the Autoregressive and Distributed lag (ARDL Model was applied to capture the affiliation between inflation and selected macroeconomic variables. Our findings revealed that there exists a long run relationship between Inflation, money supply, interest rate, GDP per capita and exchange rate in Nigeria while in the short run, money supply has a significant positive one period lag effect on Inflation and Interest Rate also has a significant negative one period lag influence on Inflation in Nigeria. Recommendations are that in the short run, monetary policies should be geared towards the control of money supply and interest rate in Nigeria in other to regulate Inflation and also, the Nigerian economy can afford to vary any of human capital development or technological advancement to boost productivity without causing inflation as GDP per capita proved insignificant in the short run.

  11. Assessing protein conformational sampling methods based on bivariate lag-distributions of backbone angles

    KAUST Repository

    Maadooliat, Mehdi; Gao, Xin; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    Despite considerable progress in the past decades, protein structure prediction remains one of the major unsolved problems in computational biology. Angular-sampling-based methods have been extensively studied recently due to their ability to capture the continuous conformational space of protein structures. The literature has focused on using a variety of parametric models of the sequential dependencies between angle pairs along the protein chains. In this article, we present a thorough review of angular-sampling-based methods by assessing three main questions: What is the best distribution type to model the protein angles? What is a reasonable number of components in a mixture model that should be considered to accurately parameterize the joint distribution of the angles? and What is the order of the local sequence-structure dependency that should be considered by a prediction method? We assess the model fits for different methods using bivariate lag-distributions of the dihedral/planar angles. Moreover, the main information across the lags can be extracted using a technique called Lag singular value decomposition (LagSVD), which considers the joint distribution of the dihedral/planar angles over different lags using a nonparametric approach and monitors the behavior of the lag-distribution of the angles using singular value decomposition. As a result, we developed graphical tools and numerical measurements to compare and evaluate the performance of different model fits. Furthermore, we developed a web-tool (http://www.stat.tamu. edu/~madoliat/LagSVD) that can be used to produce informative animations. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press.

  12. Assessing protein conformational sampling methods based on bivariate lag-distributions of backbone angles

    KAUST Repository

    Maadooliat, Mehdi

    2012-08-27

    Despite considerable progress in the past decades, protein structure prediction remains one of the major unsolved problems in computational biology. Angular-sampling-based methods have been extensively studied recently due to their ability to capture the continuous conformational space of protein structures. The literature has focused on using a variety of parametric models of the sequential dependencies between angle pairs along the protein chains. In this article, we present a thorough review of angular-sampling-based methods by assessing three main questions: What is the best distribution type to model the protein angles? What is a reasonable number of components in a mixture model that should be considered to accurately parameterize the joint distribution of the angles? and What is the order of the local sequence-structure dependency that should be considered by a prediction method? We assess the model fits for different methods using bivariate lag-distributions of the dihedral/planar angles. Moreover, the main information across the lags can be extracted using a technique called Lag singular value decomposition (LagSVD), which considers the joint distribution of the dihedral/planar angles over different lags using a nonparametric approach and monitors the behavior of the lag-distribution of the angles using singular value decomposition. As a result, we developed graphical tools and numerical measurements to compare and evaluate the performance of different model fits. Furthermore, we developed a web-tool (http://www.stat.tamu. edu/~madoliat/LagSVD) that can be used to produce informative animations. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press.

  13. Modelling of capital asset pricing by considering the lagged effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Bon, A. Talib bin; Supian, S.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper the problem of modelling the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the effect of the lagged is discussed. It is assumed that asset returns are analysed influenced by the market return and the return of risk-free assets. To analyse the relationship between asset returns, the market return, and the return of risk-free assets, it is conducted by using a regression equation of CAPM, and regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM. Associated with the regression equation lagged CAPM distributed, this paper also developed a regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM. Results of development show that the regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM has advantages, namely simple as it only requires three parameters, compared with regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM.

  14. A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

    1999-07-01

    The findings in the recent energy economics literature that energy economic variables are non-stationary, have led to an implicit or explicit dismissal of the standard autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model in estimating energy demand relationships. However, Pesaran and Shin (1997) show that the ARDL model remains valid when the underlying variables are non-stationary, provided the variables are co-integrated. In this paper we use the ARDL approach to estimate a demand relationship for Danish residential energy consumption, and the ARDL estimates are compared to the estimates obtained using co-integration techniques and error-correction models (ECM's). It turns out that both quantitatively and qualitatively, the ARDL approach and the co-integration/ECM approach give very similar results. (au)

  15. A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentzen, J; Engsted, T

    1999-07-01

    The findings in the recent energy economics literature that energy economic variables are non-stationary, have led to an implicit or explicit dismissal of the standard autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model in estimating energy demand relationships. However, Pesaran and Shin (1997) show that the ARDL model remains valid when the underlying variables are non-stationary, provided the variables are co-integrated. In this paper we use the ARDL approach to estimate a demand relationship for Danish residential energy consumption, and the ARDL estimates are compared to the estimates obtained using co-integration techniques and error-correction models (ECM's). It turns out that both quantitatively and qualitatively, the ARDL approach and the co-integration/ECM approach give very similar results. (au)

  16. Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

    2018-01-01

    The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

  17. Individual cell lag time distributions of Cronobacter (Enterobacter sakazakii) and impact of pooling samples on its detection in powdered infant formula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miled, Rabeb Bennour; Guillier, Laurent; Neves, Sandra; Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Colin, Pierre; Besse, Nathalie Gnanou

    2011-06-01

    Cells of six strains of Cronobacter were subjected to dry stress and stored for 2.5 months at ambient temperature. The individual cell lag time distributions of recovered cells were characterized at 25 °C and 37 °C in non-selective broth. The individual cell lag times were deduced from the times taken by cultures from individual cells to reach an optical density threshold. In parallel, growth curves for each strain at high contamination levels were determined in the same growth conditions. In general, the extreme value type II distribution with a shape parameter fixed to 5 (EVIIb) was the most effective at describing the 12 observed distributions of individual cell lag times. Recently, a model for characterizing individual cell lag time distribution from population growth parameters was developed for other food-borne pathogenic bacteria such as Listeria monocytogenes. We confirmed this model's applicability to Cronobacter by comparing the mean and the standard deviation of individual cell lag times to populational lag times observed with high initial concentration experiments. We also validated the model in realistic conditions by studying growth in powdered infant formula decimally diluted in Buffered Peptone Water, which represents the first enrichment step of the standard detection method for Cronobacter. Individual lag times and the pooling of samples significantly affect detection performances. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Distributed lag effects and vulnerable groups of floods on bacillary dysentery in Huaihua, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi-Dong; Li, Jing; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guo-Yong; Xu, Xin; Gao, Lu; Liu, Xue-Na; Liu, Qi-Yong; Jiang, Bao-Fa

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the potential links between floods and bacillary dysentery in China is important to develop appropriate intervention programs after floods. This study aimed to explore the distributed lag effects of floods on bacillary dysentery and to identify the vulnerable groups in Huaihua, China. Weekly number of bacillary dysentery cases from 2005–2011 were obtained during flood season. Flood data and meteorological data over the same period were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. To examine the distributed lag effects, a generalized linear mixed model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model were developed to assess the relationship between floods and bacillary dysentery. A total of 3,709 cases of bacillary dysentery were notified over the study period. The effects of floods on bacillary dysentery continued for approximately 3 weeks with a cumulative risk ratio equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 1.08–2.12). The risks of bacillary dysentery were higher in females, farmers and people aged 15–64 years old. This study suggests floods have increased the risk of bacillary dysentery with 3 weeks’ effects, especially for the vulnerable groups identified. Public health programs should be taken to prevent and control a potential risk of bacillary dysentery after floods. PMID:27427387

  19. Inflation, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Ghana: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Nchor

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movement and the nominal interest rate on inflation in Ghana. It also looks at the presence of the Fisher Effect and the International Fisher Effect scenarios. It makes use of an autoregressive distributed lag model and an unrestricted error correction model. Ordinary Least Squares regression methods were also employed to determine the presence of the Fischer Effect and the International Fisher Effect. The results from the study show that in the short run a percentage point increase in the level of depreciation of the Ghana cedi leads to an increase in the rate of inflation by 0.20%. A percentage point increase in the level of nominal interest rates however results in a decrease in inflation by 0.98%. Inflation increases by 1.33% for every percentage point increase in the nominal interest rate in the long run. An increase in inflation on the other hand increases the nominal interest rate by 0.51% which demonstrates the partial Fisher effect. A 1% increase in the interest rate differential leads to a depreciation of the Ghana cedi by approximately 1% which indicates the full International Fisher effect.

  20. The WS transform for the Kuramoto model with distributed amplitudes, phase lag and time delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohe, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz (WS) transform to a generalized Kuramoto model with distributed parameters describing the amplitude of oscillation, phase lag, and time delay at each node of the system. The model has global coupling and identical frequencies, but allows for repulsive interactions at arbitrary nodes leading to conformist-contrarian phenomena together with variable amplitude and time-delay effects. We show how to determine the initial values of the WS system for any initial conditions for the Kuramoto system, and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the WS variables. For the case of zero time delay the possible asymptotic configurations are determined by the sign of a single parameter μ which measures whether or not the attractive nodes dominate the repulsive nodes. If μ>0 the system completely synchronizes from general initial conditions, whereas if μ<0 one of two types of phase-locked synchronization occurs, depending on the initial values, while for μ=0 periodic solutions can occur. For the case of arbitrary non-uniform time delays we derive a stability condition for completely synchronized solutions.

  1. Hopf bifurcation and chaos in macroeconomic models with policy lag

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Xiaofeng; Li Chuandong; Zhou Shangbo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the macroeconomic models with policy lag, and study how lags in policy response affect the macroeconomic stability. The local stability of the nonzero equilibrium of this equation is investigated by analyzing the corresponding transcendental characteristic equation of its linearized equation. Some general stability criteria involving the policy lag and the system parameter are derived. By choosing the policy lag as a bifurcation parameter, the model is found to undergo a sequence of Hopf bifurcation. The direction and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by using the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Moreover, we show that the government can stabilize the intrinsically unstable economy if the policy lag is sufficiently short, but the system become locally unstable when the policy lag is too long. We also find the chaotic behavior in some range of the policy lag

  2. Improvement of Reynolds-Stress and Triple-Product Lag Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Michael E.; Lillard, Randolph P.

    2017-01-01

    The Reynolds-stress and triple product Lag models were created with a normal stress distribution which was denied by a 4:3:2 distribution of streamwise, spanwise and wall normal stresses, and a ratio of r(sub w) = 0.3k in the log layer region of high Reynolds number flat plate flow, which implies R11(+)= [4/(9/2)*.3] approximately 2.96. More recent measurements show a more complex picture of the log layer region at high Reynolds numbers. The first cut at improving these models along with the direction for future refinements is described. Comparison with recent high Reynolds number data shows areas where further work is needed, but also shows inclusion of the modeled turbulent transport terms improve the prediction where they influence the solution. Additional work is needed to make the model better match experiment, but there is significant improvement in many of the details of the log layer behavior.

  3. A numerical study on dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer during hyperthermia treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P; Kumar, Dinesh; Rai, K N

    2015-01-01

    The success of hyperthermia in the treatment of cancer depends on the precise prediction and control of temperature. It was absolutely a necessity for hyperthermia treatment planning to understand the temperature distribution within living biological tissues. In this paper, dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has been studied using Gaussian distribution source term under most generalized boundary condition during hyperthermia treatment. An approximate analytical solution of the present problem has been done by Finite element wavelet Galerkin method which uses Legendre wavelet as a basis function. Multi-resolution analysis of Legendre wavelet in the present case localizes small scale variations of solution and fast switching of functional bases. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. The dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer has compared with Pennes and Thermal wave model of bio-heat transfer and it has been found that large differences in the temperature at the hyperthermia position and time to achieve the hyperthermia temperature exist, when we increase the value of τT. Particular cases when surface subjected to boundary condition of 1st, 2nd and 3rd kind are discussed in detail. The use of dual-phase-lag model of bio-heat transfer and finite element wavelet Galerkin method as a solution method helps in precise prediction of temperature. Gaussian distribution source term helps in control of temperature during hyperthermia treatment. So, it makes this study more useful for clinical applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind...... plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic...... turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our...

  5. Time-optimal control of infinite order distributed parabolic systems involving time lags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.M. Bahaa

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A time-optimal control problem for linear infinite order distributed parabolic systems involving constant time lags appear both in the state equation and in the boundary condition is presented. Some particular properties of the optimal control are discussed.

  6. Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes T; Duc, Nguyen Huu Chau; Thang, Tran Binh; An, Do Dang; Hang, Lai Thi Minh; Long, Tran Thanh; Loan, Bui Thi Hong; Honda, Yasushi

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11-1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13-3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14-4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91-6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15-2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92-4.28). In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City.

  7. A single-level random-effects cross-lagged panel model for longitudinal mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Carroll, Ian A; Chen, Po-Yi

    2017-12-06

    Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are widely used to test mediation with longitudinal panel data. One major limitation of the CLPMs is that the model effects are assumed to be fixed across individuals. This assumption is likely to be violated (i.e., the model effects are random across individuals) in practice. When this happens, the CLPMs can potentially yield biased parameter estimates and misleading statistical inferences. This article proposes a model named a random-effects cross-lagged panel model (RE-CLPM) to account for random effects in CLPMs. Simulation studies show that the RE-CLPM outperforms the CLPM in recovering the mean indirect and direct effects in a longitudinal mediation analysis when random effects exist in the population. The performance of the RE-CLPM is robust to a certain degree, even when the random effects are not normally distributed. In addition, the RE-CLPM does not produce harmful results when the model effects are in fact fixed in the population. Implications of the simulation studies and potential directions for future research are discussed.

  8. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  9. Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes T.; Duc, Nguyen Huu Chau; Thang, Tran Binh; An, Do Dang; Hang, Lai Thi Minh; Long, Tran Thanh; Loan, Bui Thi Hong; Honda, Yasushi

    2016-01-01

    Background The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). Results High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28). Conclusions In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City. PMID:26781954

  10. Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran Ngoc Dang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design: We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model. Results: High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52, females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21, people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63, and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28. Conclusions: In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City.

  11. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J; Sanders, Nathan J; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-02-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Fractional single-phase-lagging heat conduction model for describing anomalous diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.N. Mishra

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The fractional single-phase-lagging (FSPL heat conduction model is obtained by combining scalar time fractional conservation equation to the single-phase-lagging (SPL heat conduction model. Based on the FSPL heat conduction model, anomalous diffusion within a finite thin film is investigated. The effect of different parameters on solution has been observed and studied the asymptotic behavior of the FSPL model. The analytical solution is obtained using Laplace transform method. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. Numerical examples of particular interest have been studied and discussed in details.

  13. Bayesian distributed lag interaction models to identify perinatal windows of vulnerability in children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Chiu, Yueh-Hsiu Mathilda; Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien Leon; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Coull, Brent A

    2017-07-01

    Epidemiological research supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and adverse children's health outcomes. Advances in exposure assessment and statistics allow for estimation of both critical windows of vulnerability and exposure effect heterogeneity. Simultaneous estimation of windows of vulnerability and effect heterogeneity can be accomplished by fitting a distributed lag model (DLM) stratified by subgroup. However, this can provide an incomplete picture of how effects vary across subgroups because it does not allow for subgroups to have the same window but different within-window effects or to have different windows but the same within-window effect. Because the timing of some developmental processes are common across subpopulations of infants while for others the timing differs across subgroups, both scenarios are important to consider when evaluating health risks of prenatal exposures. We propose a new approach that partitions the DLM into a constrained functional predictor that estimates windows of vulnerability and a scalar effect representing the within-window effect directly. The proposed method allows for heterogeneity in only the window, only the within-window effect, or both. In a simulation study we show that a model assuming a shared component across groups results in lower bias and mean squared error for the estimated windows and effects when that component is in fact constant across groups. We apply the proposed method to estimate windows of vulnerability in the association between prenatal exposures to fine particulate matter and each of birth weight and asthma incidence, and estimate how these associations vary by sex and maternal obesity status in a Boston-area prospective pre-birth cohort study. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. MACROECONOMIC KALECKI’S MODEL IN VIEW OF AN INVESTMENT TEMPORARY LAG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduard A. Gevorkyan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The dependence of the gross domestic product on time ( Y ( t in macroeconomic Kalecki’s model in view of an investment temporary lag in the case of periodic dependence of the consumption function on time is investigated. As a result of solutions of linear ordinary differential equation and differential equation with lagging argument an analytical expressions for the Y ( t is received. Some aspects of influence of a temporary lag on character of variation of the function Y ( t are shown.

  15. A FOURIER-TRANSFORMED BREMSSTRAHLUNG FLASH MODEL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF X-RAY TIME LAGS IN ACCRETING BLACK HOLE SOURCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroon, John J.; Becker, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Accreting black hole sources show a wide variety of rapid time variability, including the manifestation of time lags during X-ray transients, in which a delay (phase shift) is observed between the Fourier components of the hard and soft spectra. Despite a large body of observational evidence for time lags, no fundamental physical explanation for the origin of this phenomenon has been presented. We develop a new theoretical model for the production of X-ray time lags based on an exact analytical solution for the Fourier transform describing the diffusion and Comptonization of seed photons propagating through a spherical corona. The resulting Green's function can be convolved with any source distribution to compute the associated Fourier transform and time lags, hence allowing us to explore a wide variety of injection scenarios. We show that thermal Comptonization is able to self-consistently explain both the X-ray time lags and the steady-state (quiescent) X-ray spectrum observed in the low-hard state of Cyg X-1. The reprocessing of bremsstrahlung seed photons produces X-ray time lags that diminish with increasing Fourier frequency, in agreement with the observations for a wide range of sources

  16. Effects of lag and maximum growth in contaminant transport and biodegradation modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, B.D.; Dawson, C.N.

    1992-06-01

    The effects of time lag and maximum microbial growth on biodegradation in contaminant transport are discussed. A mathematical model is formulated that accounts for these effects, and a numerical case study is presented that demonstrates how lag influences biodegradation

  17. Associations between maternal weekly air pollutant exposures and low birth weight: a distributed lag non-linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Han; Jiang, Baofa; Zhu, Ping; Geng, Xingyi; Liu, Zhong; Cui, Liangliang; Yang, Liping

    2018-02-01

    When discussing the association between birth weight and air pollution, previous studies mainly focus on the maternal trimester-specific exposures during pregnancy, whereas the possible associations between birth weight and weekly-specific exposures have been largely neglected. We conducted a nested 1:4 matched case-control study in Jinan, China to examine the weekly-specific associations during pregnancy between maternal fine particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter gender-, gestational age-, and parity-specific standard score (BWGAP z-score) was calculated as the outcome of interest. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were applied to estimate weekly-specific relationship between maternal air pollutant exposures and birth weight. For an increase of per inter-quartile range in maternal PM2.5 exposure concentration during pregnancy, the BWGAP z-score decreased significantly during the 27th-33th gestational weeks with the strongest association in the 30th gestational weeks (standard deviation units decrease in BWGAP z-score: -0.049, 95% CI: -0.080 -0.017, in three-pollutant model). No significant association between maternal weekly NO2 or SO2 BWGAP z-score was observed. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that maternal PM2.5 exposure during the 27th-33th gestational weeks may reduce the birth weight in the context of very high pollution level of PM2.5.

  18. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-01-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. PMID:29112781

  19. Improving models of democracy: the example of lagged effects of economic development, education, and gender equality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaev, Mikhail

    2014-07-01

    The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Repetition and lag effects in movement recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C R; Buckolz, E

    1982-03-01

    Whether repetition and lag improve the recognition of movement patterns was investigated. Recognition memory was tested for one repetition, two-repetitions massed, and two-repetitions distributed with movement patterns at lags of 3, 5, 7, and 13. Recognition performance was examined both immediately afterwards and following a 48 hour delay. Both repetition and lag effects failed to be demonstrated, providing some support for the claim that memory is unaffected by repetition at a constant level of processing (Craik & Lockhart, 1972). There was, as expected, a significant decrease in recognition memory following the retention interval, but this appeared unrelated to repetition or lag.

  1. Catchment legacies and time lags: a parsimonious watershed model to predict the effects of legacy storage on nitrogen export.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly J Van Meter

    Full Text Available Nutrient legacies in anthropogenic landscapes, accumulated over decades of fertilizer application, lead to time lags between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. Quantification of such time lags has remained difficult, however, due to an incomplete understanding of controls on nutrient depletion trajectories after changes in land-use or management practices. In this study, we have developed a parsimonious watershed model for quantifying catchment-scale time lags based on both soil nutrient accumulations (biogeochemical legacy and groundwater travel time distributions (hydrologic legacy. The model accurately predicted the time lags observed in an Iowa watershed that had undergone a 41% conversion of area from row crop to native prairie. We explored the time scales of change for stream nutrient concentrations as a function of both natural and anthropogenic controls, from topography to spatial patterns of land-use change. Our results demonstrate that the existence of biogeochemical nutrient legacies increases time lags beyond those due to hydrologic legacy alone. In addition, we show that the maximum concentration reduction benefits vary according to the spatial pattern of intervention, with preferential conversion of land parcels having the shortest catchment-scale travel times providing proportionally greater concentration reductions as well as faster response times. In contrast, a random pattern of conversion results in a 1:1 relationship between percent land conversion and percent concentration reduction, irrespective of denitrification rates within the landscape. Our modeling framework allows for the quantification of tradeoffs between costs associated with implementation of conservation measures and the time needed to see the desired concentration reductions, making it of great value to decision makers regarding optimal implementation of watershed conservation measures.

  2. From lag synchronization to pattern formation in one-dimensional open flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Zengrong; Luo Jigui

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the relation between synchronization and pattern formation in one-dimensional discrete and continuous open flow models is investigated in detail. Firstly a sufficient condition for globally asymptotical stability of lag/anticipating synchronization among lattices of these models is proved by analytic method. Then, by analyzing and simulating lag/anticipating synchronization in discrete case, three kinds of pattern of wave (it is called wave pattern) travelling in the lattices are discovered. Finally, a proper definition for these kinds of pattern is proposed

  3. Insurance-growth nexus in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Latif Alhassan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the long-run causal relationship between insurance penetration and economic growth in Ghana from 1990 to 2010. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds approach to cointegration by Pesaran et al. (1996, 2001, the study finds a long-run positive relationship between insurance penetration and economic growth which implies that funds mobilized from insurance business have a long run impact on economic growth. A unidirectional causality was found to run from aggregate insurance penetration, life and non-life insurance penetration to economic growth to support the ‘supply-leading’ hypothesis. The findings have implications for insurance market development in Ghana.

  4. Modeling eye gaze patterns in clinician-patient interaction with lag sequential analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montague, Enid; Xu, Jie; Chen, Ping-Yu; Asan, Onur; Barrett, Bruce P; Chewning, Betty

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether lag sequential analysis could be used to describe eye gaze orientation between clinicians and patients in the medical encounter. This topic is particularly important as new technologies are implemented into multiuser health care settings in which trust is critical and nonverbal cues are integral to achieving trust. This analysis method could lead to design guidelines for technologies and more effective assessments of interventions. Nonverbal communication patterns are important aspects of clinician-patient interactions and may affect patient outcomes. The eye gaze behaviors of clinicians and patients in 110 videotaped medical encounters were analyzed using the lag sequential method to identify significant behavior sequences. Lag sequential analysis included both event-based lag and time-based lag. Results from event-based lag analysis showed that the patient's gaze followed that of the clinician, whereas the clinician's gaze did not follow the patient's. Time-based sequential analysis showed that responses from the patient usually occurred within 2 s after the initial behavior of the clinician. Our data suggest that the clinician's gaze significantly affects the medical encounter but that the converse is not true. Findings from this research have implications for the design of clinical work systems and modeling interactions. Similar research methods could be used to identify different behavior patterns in clinical settings (physical layout, technology, etc.) to facilitate and evaluate clinical work system designs.

  5. Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models: Exploring Varying Geographic Scale and Magnitude in Associations Between the Built Environment and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Jonggyu; Sanchez-Vaznaugh, Emma V; Sánchez, Brisa N

    2016-03-15

    It is well known that associations between features of the built environment and health depend on the geographic scale used to construct environmental attributes. In the built environment literature, it has long been argued that geographic scales may vary across study locations. However, this hypothesized variation has not been systematically examined due to a lack of available statistical methods. We propose a hierarchical distributed-lag model (HDLM) for estimating the underlying overall shape of food environment-health associations as a function of distance from locations of interest. This method enables indirect assessment of relevant geographic scales and captures area-level heterogeneity in the magnitudes of associations, along with relevant distances within areas. The proposed model was used to systematically examine area-level variation in the association between availability of convenience stores around schools and children's weights. For this case study, body mass index (weight kg)/height (m)2) z scores (BMIz) for 7th grade children collected via California's 2001-2009 FitnessGram testing program were linked to a commercial database that contained locations of food outlets statewide. Findings suggested that convenience store availability may influence BMIz only in some places and at varying distances from schools. Future research should examine localized environmental or policy differences that may explain the heterogeneity in convenience store-BMIz associations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Comparing lagged linear correlation, lagged regression, Granger causality, and vector autoregression for uncovering associations in EHR data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Matthew E; Albers, David J; Hripcsak, George

    2016-01-01

    Time series analysis methods have been shown to reveal clinical and biological associations in data collected in the electronic health record. We wish to develop reliable high-throughput methods for identifying adverse drug effects that are easy to implement and produce readily interpretable results. To move toward this goal, we used univariate and multivariate lagged regression models to investigate associations between twenty pairs of drug orders and laboratory measurements. Multivariate lagged regression models exhibited higher sensitivity and specificity than univariate lagged regression in the 20 examples, and incorporating autoregressive terms for labs and drugs produced more robust signals in cases of known associations among the 20 example pairings. Moreover, including inpatient admission terms in the model attenuated the signals for some cases of unlikely associations, demonstrating how multivariate lagged regression models' explicit handling of context-based variables can provide a simple way to probe for health-care processes that confound analyses of EHR data.

  7. A Discrete Model for HIV Infection with Distributed Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brahim EL Boukari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We give a consistent discretization of a continuous model of HIV infection, with distributed time delays to express the lag between the times when the virus enters a cell and when the cell becomes infected. The global stability of the steady states of the model is determined and numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical results.

  8. Determinants of foreign direct investment in Tunisia: Empirical assessment based on an application of the autoregressive distributed Lag model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teheni El Ghak

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the changing economic and political environment in Tunisia led to a renewed interest on the drivers of foreign direct investment, given its potential important gains. In this study, we investigated the impact of various factors over the period 1980-2012. In doing this, three categories of determinants were considered: economic, political and sociocultural variables. Empirical findings drawn from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach show that variation in foreign direct investment inflow in the short-run and long-run is affected by the majority of variables considered, except exchange rate, urban population and gross domestic savings. As a matter of policy, it is essential that government should continue its efforts to create a macroeconomic environment which is attractive to foreign direct investment.

  9. TIME-DEPENDENT ELECTRON ACCELERATION IN BLAZAR TRANSIENTS: X-RAY TIME LAGS AND SPECTRAL FORMATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewis, Tiffany R.; Becker, Peter A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444 (United States); Finke, Justin D., E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu, E-mail: tlewis13@gmu.edu, E-mail: justin.finke@nrl.navy.mil [U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Code 7653, 4555 Overlook Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20375-5352 (United States)

    2016-06-20

    Electromagnetic radiation from blazar jets often displays strong variability, extending from radio to γ -ray frequencies. In a few cases, this variability has been characterized using Fourier time lags, such as those detected in the X-rays from Mrk 421 using Beppo SAX. The lack of a theoretical framework to interpret the data has motivated us to develop a new model for the formation of the X-ray spectrum and the time lags in blazar jets based on a transport equation including terms describing stochastic Fermi acceleration, synchrotron losses, shock acceleration, adiabatic expansion, and spatial diffusion. We derive the exact solution for the Fourier transform of the electron distribution and use it to compute the Fourier transform of the synchrotron radiation spectrum and the associated X-ray time lags. The same theoretical framework is also used to compute the peak flare X-ray spectrum, assuming that a steady-state electron distribution is achieved during the peak of the flare. The model parameters are constrained by comparing the theoretical predictions with the observational data for Mrk 421. The resulting integrated model yields, for the first time, a complete first-principles physical explanation for both the formation of the observed time lags and the shape of the peak flare X-ray spectrum. It also yields direct estimates of the strength of the shock and the stochastic magnetohydrodynamical wave acceleration components in the Mrk 421 jet.

  10. Modeling the Lag Period and Exponential Growth of Listeria monocytogenes under Conditions of Fluctuating Temperature and Water Activity Values▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S.; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (aw) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h0, which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or aw were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase. PMID:20208022

  11. Modeling the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

    2010-05-01

    The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (a(w)) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h(0), which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or a(w) were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase.

  12. Statistical shear lag model - unraveling the size effect in hierarchical composites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaoding; Filleter, Tobin; Espinosa, Horacio D

    2015-05-01

    Numerous experimental and computational studies have established that the hierarchical structures encountered in natural materials, such as the brick-and-mortar structure observed in sea shells, are essential for achieving defect tolerance. Due to this hierarchy, the mechanical properties of natural materials have a different size dependence compared to that of typical engineered materials. This study aimed to explore size effects on the strength of bio-inspired staggered hierarchical composites and to define the influence of the geometry of constituents in their outstanding defect tolerance capability. A statistical shear lag model is derived by extending the classical shear lag model to account for the statistics of the constituents' strength. A general solution emerges from rigorous mathematical derivations, unifying the various empirical formulations for the fundamental link length used in previous statistical models. The model shows that the staggered arrangement of constituents grants composites a unique size effect on mechanical strength in contrast to homogenous continuous materials. The model is applied to hierarchical yarns consisting of double-walled carbon nanotube bundles to assess its predictive capabilities for novel synthetic materials. Interestingly, the model predicts that yarn gauge length does not significantly influence the yarn strength, in close agreement with experimental observations. Copyright © 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A cross-lagged model of the reciprocal associations of loneliness and memory functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayalon, Liat; Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon; Roziner, Ilan

    2016-05-01

    The study was designed to evaluate the reciprocal associations of loneliness and memory functioning using a cross-lagged model. The study was based on the psychosocial questionnaire of the Health and Retirement Study, which is a U.S. nationally representative survey of individuals over the age of 50 and their spouses of any age. A total of 1,225 respondents had complete data on the loneliness measure in 2004 and at least in 1 of the subsequent waves (e.g., 2008, 2012) and were maintained for analysis. A cross-lagged model was estimated to examine the reciprocal associations of loneliness and memory functioning, controlling for age, gender, education, depressive symptoms, number of medical conditions, and the number of close social relationships. The model had adequate fit indices: χ2(860, N = 1,225) = 1,401.54, p memory functioning was nonsignificant, B(SE) = -.11(.08), p = .15, whereas the lagged effect of memory functioning on loneliness was significant, B(SE) = -.06(.02), p = .01, indicating that lower levels of memory functioning precede higher levels of loneliness 4 years afterward. Further research is required to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the temporal association between reduced memory functioning and increased loneliness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable. In particular, it focuses on the specification and estimation of four panel data models commonly used in applied research: the fixed effects model, the random effects model, the

  15. Numerical simulation of time fractional dual-phase-lag model of heat transfer within skin tissue during thermal therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Dinesh; Rai, K N

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we investigated the thermal behavior in living biological tissues using time fractional dual-phase-lag bioheat transfer (DPLBHT) model subjected to Dirichelt boundary condition in presence of metabolic and electromagnetic heat sources during thermal therapy. We solved this bioheat transfer model using finite element Legendre wavelet Galerkin method (FELWGM) with help of block pulse function in sense of Caputo fractional order derivative. We compared the obtained results from FELWGM and exact method in a specific case, and found a high accuracy. Results are interpreted in the form of standard and anomalous cases for taking different order of time fractional DPLBHT model. The time to achieve hyperthermia position is discussed in both cases as standard and time fractional order derivative. The success of thermal therapy in the treatment of metastatic cancerous cell depends on time fractional order derivative to precise prediction and control of temperature. The effect of variability of parameters such as time fractional derivative, lagging times, blood perfusion coefficient, metabolic heat source and transmitted power on dimensionless temperature distribution in skin tissue is discussed in detail. The physiological parameters has been estimated, corresponding to the value of fractional order derivative for hyperthermia treatment therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Accelerating recovery from jet lag: prediction from a multi-oscillator model and its experimental confirmation in model animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kori, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Yoshiaki; Okamura, Hitoshi

    2017-04-01

    The endogenous circadian clock drives oscillations that are completely synchronized with the environmental day-night rhythms with a period of approximately 24 hours. Temporal misalignment between one’s internal circadian clock and the external solar time often occurs in shift workers and long-distance travelers; such misalignments are accompanied by sleep disturbances and gastrointestinal distress. Repeated exposure to jet lag and rotating shift work increases the risk of lifestyle-related diseases, such as cardiovascular complaints and metabolic insufficiencies. However, the mechanism behind the disruption of one’s internal clock is not well understood. In this paper, we therefore present a new theoretical concept called “jet lag separatrix” to understand circadian clock disruption and slow recovery from jet lag based on the mathematical model describing the hierarchical structure of the circadian clock. To demonstrate the utility of our theoretical study, we applied it to predict that re-entrainment via a two-step jet lag in which a four-hour shift of the light-dark cycle is given in the span of two successive days requires fewer days than when given as a single eight-hour shift. We experimentally verified the feasibility of our theory in C57BL/6 strain mice, with results indicating that this pre-exposure of jet lag is indeed beneficial.

  17. Kinetic analysis of elastomeric lag damper for helicopter rotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yafang; Wang, Jidong; Tong, Yan

    2018-02-01

    The elastomeric lag dampers suppress the ground resonance and air resonance that play a significant role in the stability of the helicopter. In this paper, elastomeric lag damper which is made from silicone rubber is built. And a series of experiments are conducted on this elastomeric lag damper. The stress-strain curves of elastomeric lag dampers employed shear forces at different frequency are obtained. And a finite element model is established based on Burgers model. The result of simulation and tests shows that the simple, linear model will yield good predictions of damper energy dissipation and it is adequate for predicting the stress-strain hysteresis loop within the operating frequency and a small-amplitude oscillation.

  18. A method for improving predictive modeling by taking into account lag time: Example of selenium bioaccumulation in a flowing system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckon, William N., E-mail: William_Beckon@fws.gov

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • A method for estimating response time in cause-effect relationships is demonstrated. • Predictive modeling is appreciably improved by taking into account this lag time. • Bioaccumulation lag is greater for organisms at higher trophic levels. • This methodology may be widely applicable in disparate disciplines. - Abstract: For bioaccumulative substances, efforts to predict concentrations in organisms at upper trophic levels, based on measurements of environmental exposure, have been confounded by the appreciable but hitherto unknown amount of time it may take for bioaccumulation to occur through various pathways and across several trophic transfers. The study summarized here demonstrates an objective method of estimating this lag time by testing a large array of potential lag times for selenium bioaccumulation, selecting the lag that provides the best regression between environmental exposure (concentration in ambient water) and concentration in the tissue of the target organism. Bioaccumulation lag is generally greater for organisms at higher trophic levels, reaching times of more than a year in piscivorous fish. Predictive modeling of bioaccumulation is improved appreciably by taking into account this lag. More generally, the method demonstrated here may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling in a wide variety of other cause-effect relationships in which lag time is substantial but inadequately known, in disciplines as diverse as climatology (e.g., the effect of greenhouse gases on sea levels) and economics (e.g., the effects of fiscal stimulus on employment).

  19. A method for improving predictive modeling by taking into account lag time: Example of selenium bioaccumulation in a flowing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckon, William N.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A method for estimating response time in cause-effect relationships is demonstrated. • Predictive modeling is appreciably improved by taking into account this lag time. • Bioaccumulation lag is greater for organisms at higher trophic levels. • This methodology may be widely applicable in disparate disciplines. - Abstract: For bioaccumulative substances, efforts to predict concentrations in organisms at upper trophic levels, based on measurements of environmental exposure, have been confounded by the appreciable but hitherto unknown amount of time it may take for bioaccumulation to occur through various pathways and across several trophic transfers. The study summarized here demonstrates an objective method of estimating this lag time by testing a large array of potential lag times for selenium bioaccumulation, selecting the lag that provides the best regression between environmental exposure (concentration in ambient water) and concentration in the tissue of the target organism. Bioaccumulation lag is generally greater for organisms at higher trophic levels, reaching times of more than a year in piscivorous fish. Predictive modeling of bioaccumulation is improved appreciably by taking into account this lag. More generally, the method demonstrated here may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling in a wide variety of other cause-effect relationships in which lag time is substantial but inadequately known, in disciplines as diverse as climatology (e.g., the effect of greenhouse gases on sea levels) and economics (e.g., the effects of fiscal stimulus on employment).

  20. Modeling Time-Dependent Association in Longitudinal Data: A Lag as Moderator Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selig, James P.; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Little, Todd D.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a straightforward, yet novel, approach to examine time-dependent association between variables. The approach relies on a measurement-lag research design in conjunction with statistical interaction models. We base arguments in favor of this approach on the potential for better understanding the associations between variables by…

  1. How much does the time lag between wildlife field-data collection and LiDAR-data acquisition matter for studies of animal distributions? A case study using bird communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerri T. Vierling; Charles E. Swift; Andrew T. Hudak; Jody C. Vogeler; Lee A. Vierling

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation structure quantified by light detection and ranging (LiDAR) can improve understanding of wildlife occupancy and species-richness patterns. However, there is often a time lag between the collection of LiDAR data and wildlife data. We investigated whether a time lag between the LiDAR acquisition and field-data acquisition affected mapped wildlife distributions...

  2. Adaptive lag synchronization and parameters adaptive lag identification of chaotic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Yuhua, E-mail: yuhuaxu2004@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China) and Department of Mathematics, Yunyang Teachers' College, Hubei, Shiyan 442000 (China); Zhou Wuneng, E-mail: wnzhou@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China) and Key Laboratory of Wireless Sensor Network and Communication, Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200050 (China); Fang Jian' an, E-mail: jafang@dhu.edu.c [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Sun Wen, E-mail: sunwen_2201@163.co [School of Mathematics and Information, Yangtze University, Hubei, Jingzhou 434023 (China)

    2010-07-26

    This Letter investigates the problem of adaptive lag synchronization and parameters adaptive lag identification of chaotic systems. In comparison with those of existing parameters identification schemes, the unknown parameters are identified by adaptive lag laws, and the delay time is also identified in this Letter. Numerical simulations are also given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  3. Using lagged dependence to identify (de)coupled surface and subsurface soil moisture values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, Coleen D. U.; van der Ploeg, Martine J.; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.

    2018-04-01

    Recent advances in radar remote sensing popularized the mapping of surface soil moisture at different spatial scales. Surface soil moisture measurements are used in combination with hydrological models to determine subsurface soil moisture values. However, variability of soil moisture across the soil column is important for estimating depth-integrated values, as decoupling between surface and subsurface can occur. In this study, we employ new methods to investigate the occurrence of (de)coupling between surface and subsurface soil moisture. Using time series datasets, lagged dependence was incorporated in assessing (de)coupling with the idea that surface soil moisture conditions will be reflected at the subsurface after a certain delay. The main approach involves the application of a distributed-lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to simultaneously represent both the functional relation and the lag structure in the time series. The results of an exploratory analysis using residuals from a fitted loess function serve as a posteriori information to determine (de)coupled values. Both methods allow for a range of (de)coupled soil moisture values to be quantified. Results provide new insights into the decoupled range as its occurrence among the sites investigated is not limited to dry conditions.

  4. Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines from 2006–2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xerxes T. Seposo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines, during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80, women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69, and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88. Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.

  5. Quantifying the effect of water activity and storage temperature on single spore lag times of three moulds isolated from spoiled bakery products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnas, Stéphane; Gougouli, Maria; Onno, Bernard; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2017-01-02

    The inhibitory effect of water activity (a w ) and storage temperature on single spore lag times of Aspergillus niger, Eurotium repens (Aspergillus pseudoglaucus) and Penicillium corylophilum strains isolated from spoiled bakery products, was quantified. A full factorial design was set up for each strain. Data were collected at levels of a w varying from 0.80 to 0.98 and temperature from 15 to 35°C. Experiments were performed on malt agar, at pH5.5. When growth was observed, ca 20 individual growth kinetics per condition were recorded up to 35days. Radius of the colony vs time was then fitted with the Buchanan primary model. For each experimental condition, a lag time variability was observed, it was characterized by its mean, standard deviation (sd) and 5 th percentile, after a Normal distribution fit. As the environmental conditions became stressful (e.g. storage temperature and a w lower), mean and sd of single spore lag time distribution increased, indicating longer lag times and higher variability. The relationship between mean and sd followed a monotonous but not linear pattern, identical whatever the species. Next, secondary models were deployed to estimate the cardinal values (minimal, optimal and maximal temperatures, minimal water activity where no growth is observed anymore) for the three species. That enabled to confirm the observation made based on raw data analysis: concerning the temperature effect, A. niger behaviour was significantly different from E. repens and P. corylophilum: T opt of 37.4°C (standard deviation 1.4°C) instead of 27.1°C (1.4°C) and 25.2°C (1.2°C), respectively. Concerning the a w effect, from the three mould species, E. repens was the species able to grow at the lowest a w (aw min estimated to 0.74 (0.02)). Finally, results obtained with single spores were compared to findings from a previous study carried out at the population level (Dagnas et al., 2014). For short lag times (≤5days), there was no difference between lag

  6. The lagRST Model: A Turbulence Model for Non-Equilibrium Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillard, Randolph P.; Oliver, A. Brandon; Olsen, Michael E.; Blaisdell, Gregory A.; Lyrintzis, Anastasios S.

    2011-01-01

    This study presents a new class of turbulence model designed for wall bounded, high Reynolds number flows with separation. The model addresses deficiencies seen in the modeling of nonequilibrium turbulent flows. These flows generally have variable adverse pressure gradients which cause the turbulent quantities to react at a finite rate to changes in the mean flow quantities. This "lag" in the response of the turbulent quantities can t be modeled by most standard turbulence models, which are designed to model equilibrium turbulent boundary layers. The model presented uses a standard 2-equation model as the baseline for turbulent equilibrium calculations, but adds transport equations to account directly for non-equilibrium effects in the Reynolds Stress Tensor (RST) that are seen in large pressure gradients involving shock waves and separation. Comparisons are made to several standard turbulence modeling validation cases, including an incompressible boundary layer (both neutral and adverse pressure gradients), an incompressible mixing layer and a transonic bump flow. In addition, a hypersonic Shock Wave Turbulent Boundary Layer Interaction with separation is assessed along with a transonic capsule flow. Results show a substantial improvement over the baseline models for transonic separated flows. The results are mixed for the SWTBLI flows assessed. Separation predictions are not as good as the baseline models, but the over prediction of the peak heat flux downstream of the reattachment shock that plagues many models is reduced.

  7. How to get rid of W: a latent variables approach to modelling spatially lagged variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Folmer, H.; Oud, J.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables to model spatial dependence. Rather than using the spatial weights matrix W, we propose to use latent variables to represent spatial dependence and spillover effects, of which the observed spatially lagged variables are

  8. How to get rid of W : a latent variables approach to modelling spatially lagged variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Folmer, Henk; Oud, Johan

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables to model spatial dependence. Rather than using the spatial weights matrix W, we propose to use latent variables to represent spatial dependence and spillover effects, of which the observed spatially lagged variables are

  9. SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bizyaev, D.; Pan, K.; Brinkmann, J. [Apache Point Observatory and New Mexico State University, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Walterbos, R. A. M. [Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); Yoachim, P. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Riffel, R. A. [Departamento de Física, CCNE, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Av. Roraima, 1000-97105-900, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil); Fernández-Trincado, J. G. [Institut Utinam, CNRS UMR 6213, Université de Franche-Comté, OSU THETA Franche-Comté-Bourgogne, Observatoire de Besançon, BP 1615, F-25010 Besançon Cedex (France); Diamond-Stanic, A. M. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Jones, A. [Max-Planck Institute for Astrophysics, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str 1, Garching, D-85748 (Germany); Thomas, D. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Cleary, J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg Center, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2017-04-20

    We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed H α emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the vertical lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.

  10. SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bizyaev, D.; Pan, K.; Brinkmann, J.; Walterbos, R. A. M.; Yoachim, P.; Riffel, R. A.; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Diamond-Stanic, A. M.; Jones, A.; Thomas, D.; Cleary, J.

    2017-01-01

    We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed H α emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the vertical lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.

  11. SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizyaev, D.; Walterbos, R. A. M.; Yoachim, P.; Riffel, R. A.; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Pan, K.; Diamond-Stanic, A. M.; Jones, A.; Thomas, D.; Cleary, J.; Brinkmann, J.

    2017-04-01

    We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed Hα emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the vertical lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.

  12. X-ray time lags in PG 1211+143

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobban, A. P.; Vaughan, S.; Pounds, K.; Reeves, J. N.

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the X-ray time lags of a recent ˜630 ks XMM-Newton observation of PG 1211+143. We find well-correlated variations across the XMM-Newton EPIC bandpass, with the first detection of a hard lag in this source with a mean time delay of up to ˜3 ks at the lowest frequencies. We find that the energy-dependence of the low-frequency hard lag scales approximately linearly with log(E) when averaged over all orbits, consistent with the propagating fluctuations model. However, we find that the low-frequency lag behaviour becomes more complex on time-scales longer than a single orbit, suggestive of additional modes of variability. We also detect a high-frequency soft lag at ˜10-4 Hz with the magnitude of the delay peaking at ≲ 0.8 ks, consistent with previous observations, which we discuss in terms of small-scale reverberation.

  13. On Thermodynamics Problems in the Single-Phase-Lagging Heat Conduction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Nan Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Thermodynamics problems for the single-phase-lagging (SPL model have not been much studied. In this paper, the violation of the second law of thermodynamics by the SPL model is studied from two perspectives, which are the negative entropy production rate and breaking equilibrium spontaneously. The methods for the SPL model to avoid the negative entropy production rate are proposed, which are extended irreversible thermodynamics and the thermal relaxation time. Modifying the entropy production rate positive or zero is not enough to avoid the violation of the second law of thermodynamics for the SPL model, because the SPL model could cause breaking equilibrium spontaneously in some special circumstances. As comparison, it is shown that Fourier’s law and the CV model cannot break equilibrium spontaneously by analyzing mathematical energy integral.

  14. Taking the lag out of jet lag through model-based schedule design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Dennis A; Forger, Daniel B; Klerman, Elizabeth B

    2009-06-01

    Travel across multiple time zones results in desynchronization of environmental time cues and the sleep-wake schedule from their normal phase relationships with the endogenous circadian system. Circadian misalignment can result in poor neurobehavioral performance, decreased sleep efficiency, and inappropriately timed physiological signals including gastrointestinal activity and hormone release. Frequent and repeated transmeridian travel is associated with long-term cognitive deficits, and rodents experimentally exposed to repeated schedule shifts have increased death rates. One approach to reduce the short-term circadian, sleep-wake, and performance problems is to use mathematical models of the circadian pacemaker to design countermeasures that rapidly shift the circadian pacemaker to align with the new schedule. In this paper, the use of mathematical models to design sleep-wake and countermeasure schedules for improved performance is demonstrated. We present an approach to designing interventions that combines an algorithm for optimal placement of countermeasures with a novel mode of schedule representation. With these methods, rapid circadian resynchrony and the resulting improvement in neurobehavioral performance can be quickly achieved even after moderate to large shifts in the sleep-wake schedule. The key schedule design inputs are endogenous circadian period length, desired sleep-wake schedule, length of intervention, background light level, and countermeasure strength. The new schedule representation facilitates schedule design, simulation studies, and experiment design and significantly decreases the amount of time to design an appropriate intervention. The method presented in this paper has direct implications for designing jet lag, shift-work, and non-24-hour schedules, including scheduling for extreme environments, such as in space, undersea, or in polar regions.

  15. The FFA dynamic stall model. The Beddoes-Leishman dynamic stall model modified for lead-lag oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerck, A. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden)

    1997-08-01

    For calculations of the dynamics of wind turbines the inclusion of a dynamic stall model is necessary in order to obtain reliable results at high winds. For blade vibrations in the lead-lag motion the velocity relative to the blade will vary in time. In the present paper modifications to the Beddoes-Leishman model is presented in order to improve the model for calculations of cases with a varying relative velocity. Comparisons with measurement are also shown and the influence on the calculated aerodynamic damping by the modifications are investigated. (au)

  16. Generalized viscothermoelasticity theory of dual-phase-lagging model for damping analysis in circular micro-plate resonators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover, D.; Seth, R. K.

    2018-05-01

    Analysis and numerical results are presented for the thermoelastic dissipation of a homogeneous isotropic, thermally conducting, Kelvin-Voigt type circular micro-plate based on Kirchhoff's Love plate theory utilizing generalized viscothermoelasticity theory of dual-phase-lagging model. The analytical expressions for thermoelastic damping of vibration and frequency shift are obtained for generalized dual-phase-lagging model and coupled viscothermoelastic plates. The scaled thermoelastic damping has been illustrated in case of circular plate and axisymmetric circular plate for fixed aspect ratio for clamped and simply supported boundary conditions. It is observed that the damping of vibrations significantly depend on time delay and mechanical relaxation times in addition to thermo-mechanical coupling in circular plate under resonance conditions and plate dimensions.

  17. Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in a cohort of congestive heart failure: Case-crossover and nested case-control analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buteau, Stephane; Goldberg, Mark S; Burnett, Richard T; Gasparrini, Antonio; Valois, Marie-France; Brophy, James M; Crouse, Dan L; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2018-04-01

    Persons with congestive heart failure may be at higher risk of the acute effects related to daily fluctuations in ambient air pollution. To meet some of the limitations of previous studies using grouped-analysis, we developed a cohort study of persons with congestive heart failure to estimate whether daily non-accidental mortality were associated with spatially-resolved, daily exposures to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ), and whether these associations were modified according to a series of indicators potentially reflecting complications or worsening of health. We constructed the cohort from the linkage of administrative health databases. Daily exposure was assigned from different methods we developed previously to predict spatially-resolved, time-dependent concentrations of ambient NO 2 (all year) and O 3 (warm season) at participants' residences. We performed two distinct types of analyses: a case-crossover that contrasts the same person at different times, and a nested case-control that contrasts different persons at similar times. We modelled the effects of air pollution and weather (case-crossover only) on mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models over lags 0 to 3 days. We developed from administrative health data a series of indicators that may reflect the underlying construct of "declining health", and used interactions between these indicators and the cross-basis function for air pollutant to assess potential effect modification. The magnitude of the cumulative as well as the lag-specific estimates of association differed in many instances according to the metric of exposure. Using the back-extrapolation method, which is our preferred exposure model, we found for the case-crossover design a cumulative mean percentage changes (MPC) in daily mortality per interquartile increment in NO 2 (8.8 ppb) of 3.0% (95% CI: -0.9, 6.9%) and for O 3 (16.5 ppb) 3.5% (95% CI: -4.5, 12.1). For O 3 there was strong confounding by weather

  18. Lagged correlation networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curme, Chester

    Technological advances have provided scientists with large high-dimensional datasets that describe the behaviors of complex systems: from the statistics of energy levels in complex quantum systems, to the time-dependent transcription of genes, to price fluctuations among assets in a financial market. In this environment, where it may be difficult to infer the joint distribution of the data, network science has flourished as a way to gain insight into the structure and organization of such systems by focusing on pairwise interactions. This work focuses on a particular setting, in which a system is described by multivariate time series data. We consider time-lagged correlations among elements in this system, in such a way that the measured interactions among elements are asymmetric. Finally, we allow these interactions to be characteristically weak, so that statistical uncertainties may be important to consider when inferring the structure of the system. We introduce a methodology for constructing statistically validated networks to describe such a system, extend the methodology to accommodate interactions with a periodic component, and show how consideration of bipartite community structures in these networks can aid in the construction of robust statistical models. An example of such a system is a financial market, in which high frequency returns data may be used to describe contagion, or the spreading of shocks in price among assets. These data provide the experimental testing ground for our methodology. We study NYSE data from both the present day and one decade ago, examine the time scales over which the validated lagged correlation networks exist, and relate differences in the topological properties of the networks to an increasing economic efficiency. We uncover daily periodicities in the validated interactions, and relate our findings to explanations of the Epps Effect, an empirical phenomenon of financial time series. We also study bipartite community

  19. Lagged PM2.5 effects in mortality time series: Critical impact of covariate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two most common approaches to modeling the effects of air pollution on mortality are the Harvard and the Johns Hopkins (NMMAPS) approaches. These two approaches, which use different sets of covariates, result in dissimilar estimates of the effect of lagged fine particulate ma...

  20. Estimation of dual phase lag model parameters using the evolutionary algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mochnacki

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Generalization of Fourier law, in particular the introduction of two ‘delay times’ (relaxation time q and thermalization time T leads to thenew form of energy equation called the dual-phase-lag model (DPLM. This equation should be applied in a case of microscale heat transfermodeling. In particular, DPLM constitutes a good approximation of thermal processes which are characterized by extremely short duration(e.g. ultrafast laser pulse, extreme temperature gradients and geometrical features of domain considered (e.g. thin metal film. The aim ofconsiderations presented in this paper is the identification of two above mentioned positive constants q, T. They correspond to the relaxationtime, which is the mean time for electrons to change their energy states and the thermalization time, which is the mean time required forc(TTl G(TT electrons and lattice to reach equilibrium. In this paper the DPlLMlequation ise appllied for analysis of thermal processes proceeding in a thint metal film subjected to a laser beam. At the stage of computations connected with the identification problem solution the evolutionaryalgorithms are used. To solve the problem the additional information concerning the transient temperature distribution on a metal film surface is assumed to be known.

  1. Taking the lag out of jet lag through model-based schedule design.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis A Dean

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Travel across multiple time zones results in desynchronization of environmental time cues and the sleep-wake schedule from their normal phase relationships with the endogenous circadian system. Circadian misalignment can result in poor neurobehavioral performance, decreased sleep efficiency, and inappropriately timed physiological signals including gastrointestinal activity and hormone release. Frequent and repeated transmeridian travel is associated with long-term cognitive deficits, and rodents experimentally exposed to repeated schedule shifts have increased death rates. One approach to reduce the short-term circadian, sleep-wake, and performance problems is to use mathematical models of the circadian pacemaker to design countermeasures that rapidly shift the circadian pacemaker to align with the new schedule. In this paper, the use of mathematical models to design sleep-wake and countermeasure schedules for improved performance is demonstrated. We present an approach to designing interventions that combines an algorithm for optimal placement of countermeasures with a novel mode of schedule representation. With these methods, rapid circadian resynchrony and the resulting improvement in neurobehavioral performance can be quickly achieved even after moderate to large shifts in the sleep-wake schedule. The key schedule design inputs are endogenous circadian period length, desired sleep-wake schedule, length of intervention, background light level, and countermeasure strength. The new schedule representation facilitates schedule design, simulation studies, and experiment design and significantly decreases the amount of time to design an appropriate intervention. The method presented in this paper has direct implications for designing jet lag, shift-work, and non-24-hour schedules, including scheduling for extreme environments, such as in space, undersea, or in polar regions.

  2. Modeling the relative impact of capsular tissue effects on implanted glucose sensor time lag and signal attenuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Matthew T; Yuan, Fan; Reichert, William M

    2010-10-01

    Little is known mechanistically about why implanted glucose sensors lag behind blood glucose levels in both the time to peak sensor response and the magnitude of peak sensor response. A mathematical model of glucose transport from capillaries through surrounding tissue to the sensor surface was constructed to address how different aspects of the tissue affect glucose transport to an implanted sensor. Physiologically relevant values of capsule diffusion coefficient, capsule porosity, cellular glucose consumption, capsule thickness, and subcutaneous vessel density were used as inputs to create simulated sensor traces that mimic experimental instances of time lag and concentration attenuation relative to a given blood glucose profile. Using logarithmic sensitivity analysis, each parameter was analyzed to study the effect of these variables on both lag and attenuation. Results identify capsule thickness as the strongest determinant of sensor time lag, while subcutaneous vessel density and capsule porosity had the largest effects on attenuation of glucose that reaches the sensor surface. These findings provide mechanistic insight for the rational design of sensor modifications that may alleviate the deleterious consequences of tissue effects on implanted sensor performance.

  3. Spectral evolution of GRBs with negative spectral lag using Fermi GBM observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarti, Arundhati; Chaudhury, Kishor; Sarkar, Samir K.; Bhadra, Arunava

    2018-06-01

    The positive spectral lag of Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) is often explained in terms of hard-to-soft spectral evolution of GRB pulses. While positive lags of GRBs is very common, there are few GRB pulses that exhibits negative spectral lags. In the present work we examine whether negative lags of GRBs also can be interpreted in terms of spectral evolution of GRB pulses or not. Using Fermi-GBM data, we identify two GRBs, GRB 090426C and GRB 150213A, with clean pulses that exhibit negative spectral lag. An indication of soft to hard transition has been noticed for the negative spectral lag events from the spectral evolution study. The implication of the present findings on the models of GRB spectral lags are discussed.

  4. Estimating and Analyzing Savannah Phenology with a Lagged Time Series Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boke-Olen, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardo, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses...... climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create...... a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r2 of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore...

  5. Mechanisms of zero-lag synchronization in cortical motifs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo L Gollo

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Zero-lag synchronization between distant cortical areas has been observed in a diversity of experimental data sets and between many different regions of the brain. Several computational mechanisms have been proposed to account for such isochronous synchronization in the presence of long conduction delays: Of these, the phenomenon of "dynamical relaying"--a mechanism that relies on a specific network motif--has proven to be the most robust with respect to parameter mismatch and system noise. Surprisingly, despite a contrary belief in the community, the common driving motif is an unreliable means of establishing zero-lag synchrony. Although dynamical relaying has been validated in empirical and computational studies, the deeper dynamical mechanisms and comparison to dynamics on other motifs is lacking. By systematically comparing synchronization on a variety of small motifs, we establish that the presence of a single reciprocally connected pair--a "resonance pair"--plays a crucial role in disambiguating those motifs that foster zero-lag synchrony in the presence of conduction delays (such as dynamical relaying from those that do not (such as the common driving triad. Remarkably, minor structural changes to the common driving motif that incorporate a reciprocal pair recover robust zero-lag synchrony. The findings are observed in computational models of spiking neurons, populations of spiking neurons and neural mass models, and arise whether the oscillatory systems are periodic, chaotic, noise-free or driven by stochastic inputs. The influence of the resonance pair is also robust to parameter mismatch and asymmetrical time delays amongst the elements of the motif. We call this manner of facilitating zero-lag synchrony resonance-induced synchronization, outline the conditions for its occurrence, and propose that it may be a general mechanism to promote zero-lag synchrony in the brain.

  6. A Distributed Lag Autoregressive Model of Geostationary Relativistic Electron Fluxes: Comparing the Influences of Waves, Seed and Source Electrons, and Solar Wind Inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simms, Laura; Engebretson, Mark; Clilverd, Mark; Rodger, Craig; Lessard, Marc; Gjerloev, Jesper; Reeves, Geoffrey

    2018-05-01

    Relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit depends on enhancement and loss processes driven by ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, chorus, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, seed electron flux, magnetosphere compression, the "Dst effect," and substorms, while solar wind inputs such as velocity, number density, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz drive these factors and thus correlate with flux. Distributed lag regression models show the time delay of highest influence of these factors on log10 high-energy electron flux (0.7-7.8 MeV, Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites). Multiple regression with an autoregressive term (flux persistence) allows direct comparison of the magnitude of each effect while controlling other correlated parameters. Flux enhancements due to ULF Pc5 and chorus waves are of equal importance. The direct effect of substorms on high-energy electron flux is strong, possibly due to injection of high-energy electrons by the substorms themselves. Loss due to electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves is less influential. Southward Bz shows only moderate influence when correlated processes are accounted for. Adding covariate compression effects (pressure and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude) allows wave-driven enhancements to be more clearly seen. Seed electrons (270 keV) are most influential at lower relativistic energies, showing that such a population must be available for acceleration. However, they are not accelerated directly to the highest energies. Source electrons (31.7 keV) show no direct influence when other factors are controlled. Their action appears to be indirect via the chorus waves they generate. Determination of specific effects of each parameter when studied in combination will be more helpful in furthering modeling work than studying them individually.

  7. Effect of heat shock and recovery temperature on variability of single cell lag time of Cronobacter turicensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y Zh; Métris, A; Stasinopoulos, D M; Forsythe, S J; Sutherland, J P

    2015-02-01

    The effect of heat stress and subsequent recovery temperature on the individual cellular lag of Cronobacter turicensis was analysed using optical density measurements. Low numbers of cells were obtained through serial dilution and the time to reach an optical density of 0.035 was determined. Assuming the lag of a single cell follows a shifted Gamma distribution with a fixed shape parameter, the effect of recovery temperature on the individual lag of untreated and sublethally heat treated cells of Cr. turicensis were modelled. It was found that the shift parameter (Tshift) increased asymptotically as the temperature decreased while the logarithm of the scale parameter (θ) decreased linearly with recovery temperature. To test the validity of the model in food, growth of low numbers of untreated and heat treated Cr. turicensis in artificially contaminated infant first milk was measured experimentally and compared with predictions obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Although the model for untreated cells slightly underestimated the actual growth in first milk at low temperatures, the model for heat treated cells was in agreement with the data derived from the challenge tests and provides a basis for reliable quantitative microbiological risk assessments for Cronobacter spp. in infant milk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling and analysis of the impacts of jet lag on circadian rhythm and its role in tumor growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azka Hassan

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Circadian rhythms maintain a 24 h oscillation pattern in metabolic, physiological and behavioral processes in all living organisms. Circadian rhythms are organized as biochemical networks located in hypothalamus and peripheral tissues. Rhythmicity in the expression of circadian clock genes plays a vital role in regulating the process of cell division and DNA damage control. The oncogenic protein, MYC and the tumor suppressor, p53 are directly influenced by the circadian clock. Jet lag and altered sleep/wake schedules prominently affect the expression of molecular clock genes. This study is focused on developing a Petri net model to analyze the impacts of long term jet lag on the circadian clock and its probable role in tumor progression. The results depict that jet lag disrupts the normal rhythmic behavior and expression of the circadian clock proteins. This disruption leads to persistent expression of MYC and suppressed expression of p53. Thus, it is inferred that jet lag altered circadian clock negatively affects the expressions of cell cycle regulatory genes and contribute in uncontrolled proliferation of tumor cells.

  9. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Weiwei, E-mail: weiwei.yu@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [Discipline of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Hu Wenbiao [School of Population Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, University of Queensland, Brisbane (Australia); Guo Yuming [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Pan Xiaochuan [School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191 (China); Tong Shilu, E-mail: s.tong@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 deg. C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 deg. C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality. - Highlights: > A longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. > The very old people were most vulnerable to temperature stress. > The cardiovascular mortality was also sensitive to the temperature variation. - In Brisbane, the lag effects lasted longer for cold temperatures, and shorter for hot temperatures. Elderly people and cardiovascular mortality were vulnerable to temperature stress.

  10. Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Luo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect. METHODS: The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD, cardiovascular disease (CVD, respiratory disease (RD and cerebrovascular disease (CBD in the full year, the cold season and the warm season. RESULTS: A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days, and then decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.

  11. When long-range zero-lag synchronization is feasible in cortical networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atthaphon eViriyopase

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have reported long-range synchronization of neuronal activity between brain areas, in particular in the gamma-band with frequencies in the range of 40-80 Hz. Several studies have reported synchrony with zero phase lag, which is remarkable considering the synaptic and conduction delays inherent in the connections between distant brain areas. This result has led to many speculations about the possible functional role of zero-lag synchrony, e.g., for neuronal communication in attention, memory and feature binding. However, recent studies using recordings of single-unit activity and local field potentials report that neuronal synchronization occurs with non-zero phase lags. This raises the questions whether zero-lag synchrony can occur in the brain and, if so, under which conditions.We used analytical methods and computer simulations to investigate which connectivity between neuronal populations allows or prohibits zero-lag synchrony. We did so for a model where two oscillators interact via a relay oscillator. Analytical results and computer simulations were obtained for both type I Mirollo-Strogatz neurons and type II Hodgkin-Huxley neurons. We have investigated the dynamics of the model for various types of synaptic coupling and importantly considered the potential impact of Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP and its learning window. We confirm previous results that zero-lag synchrony can be achieved in this configuration. This is much easier to achieve with Hodgkin-Huxley neurons, which have a biphasic phase response curve, than for type I neurons. STDP facilitates zero-lag synchrony as it adjusts the synaptic strengths such that zero-lag synchrony is feasible for a much larger range of parameters than without STDP.

  12. The Threshold Temperature and Lag Effects on Daily Excess Mortality in Harbin, China: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanlu Gao

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: A large number of studies have reported the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. However, few studies have focused on the effects of high temperatures on cardio-cerebrovascular diseases mortality (CCVDM and their acute events (ACCVDM. Objective: To assess the threshold temperature and time lag effects on daily excess mortality in Harbin, China. Methods: A generalized additive model (GAM with a Poisson distribution was used to investigate the relative risk of mortality for each 1 °C increase above the threshold temperature and their time lag effects in Harbin, China. Results: High temperature threshold was 26 °C in Harbin. Heat effects were immediate and lasted for 0–6 and 0–4 days for CCVDM and ACCVDM, respectively. The acute cardiovascular disease mortality (ACVDM seemed to be more sensitive to temperature than cardiovascular disease mortality (CVDM with higher death risk and shorter time lag effects. The lag effects lasted longer for cerebrovascular disease mortality (CBDM than CVDM; so did ACBDM compared to ACVDM. Conclusion: Hot temperatures increased CCVDM and ACCVDM in Harbin, China. Public health intervention strategies for hot temperatures adaptation should be concerned.

  13. Estimation of daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using artificial intelligence methods: Offering a new approach for lagged ETo data-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid

    2018-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is considered as a key factor in hydrological and climatological studies, agricultural water management, irrigation scheduling, etc. It can be directly measured using lysimeters. Moreover, other methods such as empirical equations and artificial intelligence methods can be used to model ET. In the recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been widely utilized to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). In the present study, local and external performances of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and gene expression programming (GEP) were assessed for estimating daily ETo. For this aim, daily weather data of six stations with different climates in Iran, namely Urmia and Tabriz (semi-arid), Isfahan and Shiraz (arid), Yazd and Zahedan (hyper-arid) were employed during 2000-2014. Two types of input patterns consisting of weather data-based and lagged ETo data-based scenarios were considered to develop the models. Four statistical indicators including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to check the accuracy of models. The local performance of models revealed that the MARS and GEP approaches have the capability to estimate daily ETo using the meteorological parameters and the lagged ETo data as inputs. Nevertheless, the MARS had the best performance in the weather data-based scenarios. On the other hand, considerable differences were not observed in the models' accuracy for the lagged ETo data-based scenarios. In the innovation of this study, novel hybrid models were proposed in the lagged ETo data-based scenarios through combination of MARS and GEP models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) time series model. It was concluded that the proposed novel models named MARS-ARCH and GEP-ARCH improved the performance of ETo modeling compared to the single MARS and GEP. In addition, the external

  14. Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.

    2018-04-01

    The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.

  15. SPECTRAL LAGS AND THE LAG-LUMINOSITY RELATION: AN INVESTIGATION WITH SWIFT BAT GAMMA-RAY BURSTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukwatta, T. N.; Dhuga, K. S.; Eskandarian, A.; Maximon, L. C.; Parke, W. C.; Stamatikos, M.; Sakamoto, T.; Barthelmy, S. D.; Gehrels, N.; Norris, J. P.

    2010-01-01

    Spectral lag, the time difference between the arrival of high-energy and low-energy photons, is a common feature in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Norris et al. reported a correlation between the spectral lag and the isotropic peak luminosity of GRBs based on a limited sample. More recently, a number of authors have provided further support for this correlation using arbitrary energy bands of various instruments. In this paper, we report on a systematic extraction of spectral lags based on the largest Swift sample to date of 31 GRBs with measured redshifts. We extracted the spectral lags for all combinations of the standard Swift hard X-ray energy bands: 15-25 keV, 25-50 keV, 50-100 keV, and 100-200 keV and plotted the time dilation corrected lag as a function of isotropic peak luminosity. The mean value of the correlation coefficient for various channel combinations is -0.68 with a chance probability of ∼0.7 x 10 -3 . In addition, the mean value of the power-law index is 1.4 ± 0.3. Hence, our study lends support to the existence of a lag-luminosity correlation, albeit with large scatter.

  16. Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Shiyan; Song, Genxin; Qin, Yaochen; Ye, Xinyue; Lee, Jay

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention.

  17. Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: An autoregressive distributed lag approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiyan Zhai

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention.

  18. Short communication: Genetic lag represents commercial herd genetic merit more accurately than the 4-path selection model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dechow, C D; Rogers, G W

    2018-05-01

    Expectation of genetic merit in commercial dairy herds is routinely estimated using a 4-path genetic selection model that was derived for a closed population, but commercial herds using artificial insemination sires are not closed. The 4-path model also predicts a higher rate of genetic progress in elite herds that provide artificial insemination sires than in commercial herds that use such sires, which counters other theoretical assumptions and observations of realized genetic responses. The aim of this work is to clarify whether genetic merit in commercial herds is more accurately reflected under the assumptions of the 4-path genetic response formula or by a genetic lag formula. We demonstrate by tracing the transmission of genetic merit from parents to offspring that the rate of genetic progress in commercial dairy farms is expected to be the same as that in the genetic nucleus. The lag in genetic merit between the nucleus and commercial farms is a function of sire and dam generation interval, the rate of genetic progress in elite artificial insemination herds, and genetic merit of sires and dams. To predict how strategies such as the use of young versus daughter-proven sires, culling heifers following genomic testing, or selective use of sexed semen will alter genetic merit in commercial herds, genetic merit expectations for commercial herds should be modeled using genetic lag expectations. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A comparison between the pressure-lag model and the rate-type model for the prediction of reservoir compaction and surface subsidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smits, R.M.M.; De Waal, J.A.

    1988-06-01

    A theoretical study has been carried out to investigate whether the nonlinear compaction behavior of sandstone reservoirs, which has been reported for most well-documented field cases, can be explained by pressure lags in interbedding and/or neighboring low-permeability (shale) layers. On the basis of the results obtained, it is concluded that pressure-lag effects in normally encountered production scenarios cannot account for these nonlinearities, even under worst-case conditions. Therefore, the nonlinear field-compaction behavior must be caused by rate effects in the sandstone reservoir rock itself. This is supported by the fact that a rate-type compaction model recently introduced does indeed give a good description of the observed field behavior.

  20. PENGARUH TIME LAG SML SEBAGAI PREDIKTOR DALAM MODEL SISTEM PREDIKSI ENSEMBLE PEMBOBOT PRAKIRAAN HUJAN BULANAN DI KABUPATEN INDRAMAYU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunus Subagyo Swarinoto

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Data Suhu Muka Laut (SML dari Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA dengan resolusi 1° diregresikan dengan prediksi  hujan bulanan di wilayah Kabupaten Indramayu Propinsi Jawa Barat. Proses ini dimaksudkan untuk memperbaiki luaran model Sistem Prediksi Ensemble dengan nilai pembobot (SPEP dalam melakukan prediksi unsur iklim  hujan bulanan di wilayah Kabupaten Indramayu dengan memasukkan dinamika fluktuasi SML di sekitar daerah penelitian. Teknik yang digunakan dalam mengkaitkan data SML-JMA dengan nilai prediksi  hujan bulanan dimaksud adalah teknik Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR. Model yang diaplikasikan selanjutnya disebut sebagai SPEP-PLSR. Data SML-JMA diolah dengan memperhatikan time lag 1 dan 2 bulan sebelumnya karena efek SML terhadap atmosfer tidak berlangsung secara cepat. Luaran model SPEP-PLSR menunjukkan  hasil yang lebih baik secara signifikan terhadap luaran model SPEP untuk time lag 2 bulan. Kondisi ini ditunjukkan oleh nilai yang lebih baik untuk koefisien korelasi Pearson (r minimum, nilai r rerata, nilai Root Mean Square Erros (RMSE maksimum, dan nilai RMSE rerata daripada luaran yang dihasilkan oleh SPEP.   The Sea Surface Temperature of Japan Meteorological Agency (SML-JMA with 1° resolution had been regressed with monthly rainfall  prediction in Indramayu District of West Java Province. This method was used to improve the quality of the Ensemble Prediction System using Weighting Factor (SPEP model output to provide the monthly rainfall  prediction by inserting the fluctuation of Sea Surface Temperature dynamics. Processing technique done between SML-JMA and monthly rainfall  prediction was Partial Least Square Regression method. This model was then called as SPEP-PLSR. Those SML-JMA data were computed based on preceded time lag of 1 and 2 months because the efect of SML did not occur directly into the atmosphere. Results of SPEP-PLSR model outputs showed significantly better in quality compared to the SPEP model

  1. Modelling blazar flaring using a time-dependent fluid jet emission model - an explanation for orphan flares and radio lags

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, William J.

    2018-01-01

    Blazar jets are renowned for their rapid violent variability and multiwavelength flares, however, the physical processes responsible for these flares are not well understood. In this paper, we develop a time-dependent inhomogeneous fluid jet emission model for blazars. We model optically thick radio flares for the first time and show that they are delayed with respect to the prompt optically thin emission by ∼months to decades, with a lag that increases with the jet power and observed wavelength. This lag is caused by a combination of the travel time of the flaring plasma to the optically thin radio emitting sections of the jet and the slow rise time of the radio flare. We predict two types of flares: symmetric flares - with the same rise and decay time, which occur for flares whose duration is shorter than both the radiative lifetime and the geometric path-length delay time-scale; extended flares - whose luminosity tracks the power of particle acceleration in the flare, which occur for flares with a duration longer than both the radiative lifetime and geometric delay. Our model naturally produces orphan X-ray and γ-ray flares. These are caused by flares that are only observable above the quiescent jet emission in a narrow band of frequencies. Our model is able to successfully fit to the observed multiwavelength flaring spectra and light curves of PKS1502+106 across all wavelengths, using a transient flaring front located within the broad-line region.

  2. Comparison of migration behavior between single and dual lag screw implants for intertrochanteric fracture fixation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katonis Pavlos G

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lag screw cut-out failure following fixation of unstable intertrochanteric fractures in osteoporotic bone remains an unsolved challenge. This study tested if resistance to cut-out failure can be improved by using a dual lag screw implant in place of a single lag screw implant. Migration behavior and cut-out resistance of a single and a dual lag screw implant were comparatively evaluated in surrogate specimens using an established laboratory model of hip screw cut-out failure. Methods Five dual lag screw implants (Endovis, Citieffe and five single lag screw implants (DHS, Synthes were tested in the Hip Implant Performance Simulator (HIPS of the Legacy Biomechanics Laboratory. This model simulated osteoporotic bone, an unstable fracture, and biaxial rocking motion representative of hip loading during normal gait. All constructs were loaded up to 20,000 cycles of 1.45 kN peak magnitude under biaxial rocking motion. The migration kinematics was continuously monitored with 6-degrees of freedom motion tracking system and the number of cycles to implant cut-out was recorded. Results The dual lag screw implant exhibited significantly less migration and sustained more loading cycles in comparison to the DHS single lag screw. All DHS constructs failed before 20,000 cycles, on average at 6,638 ± 2,837 cycles either by cut-out or permanent screw bending. At failure, DHS constructs exhibited 10.8 ± 2.3° varus collapse and 15.5 ± 9.5° rotation around the lag screw axis. Four out of five dual screws constructs sustained 20,000 loading cycles. One dual screw specimens sustained cut-out by medial migration of the distal screw after 10,054 cycles. At test end, varus collapse and neck rotation in dual screws implants advanced to 3.7 ± 1.7° and 1.6 ± 1.0°, respectively. Conclusion The single and double lag screw implants demonstrated a significantly different migration resistance in surrogate specimens under gait loading simulation with

  3. Numerical solution of non-linear dual-phase-lag bioheat transfer equation within skin tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Dinesh; Kumar, P; Rai, K N

    2017-11-01

    This paper deals with numerical modeling and simulation of heat transfer in skin tissues using non-linear dual-phase-lag (DPL) bioheat transfer model under periodic heat flux boundary condition. The blood perfusion is assumed temperature-dependent which results in non-linear DPL bioheat transfer model in order to predict more accurate results. A numerical method of line which is based on finite difference and Runge-Kutta (4,5) schemes, is used to solve the present non-linear problem. Under specific case, the exact solution has been obtained and compared with the present numerical scheme, and we found that those are in good agreement. A comparison based on model selection criterion (AIC) has been made among non-linear DPL models when the variation of blood perfusion rate with temperature is of constant, linear and exponential type with the experimental data and it has been found that non-linear DPL model with exponential variation of blood perfusion rate is closest to the experimental data. In addition, it is found that due to absence of phase-lag phenomena in Pennes bioheat transfer model, it achieves steady state more quickly and always predict higher temperature than thermal and DPL non-linear models. The effect of coefficient of blood perfusion rate, dimensionless heating frequency and Kirchoff number on dimensionless temperature distribution has also been analyzed. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The influence of interactions between accommodation and convergence on the lag of accommodation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schor, C

    1999-03-01

    Several models of myopia predict that growth of axial length is stimulated by blur. Accommodative lag has been suggested as an important source of blur in the development of myopia and this study has modeled how cross-link interactions between accommodation and convergence might interact with uncorrected distance heterophoria and refractive error to influence accommodative lag. Accommodative lag was simulated with two models of interactions between accommodation and convergence (one with and one without adaptable tonic elements). Simulations of both models indicate that both uncorrected hyperopia and esophoria increase the lag of accommodative and uncorrected myopia and exophoria decrease the lag or introduce a lead of accommodation in response to the near (40 cm) stimulus. These effects were increased when gain of either cross-link, accommodative convergence (AC/A) or convergence accommodation (CA/C), was increased within a moderate range of values while the other was fixed at a normal value (clamped condition). These effects were exaggerated when both the AC/A and CA/C ratios were increased (covaried condition) and affects of cross-link gain were negated when an increase of one cross-link (e.g. AC/A) was accompanied by a reduction of the other cross-link (e.g. CA/C) (reciprocal condition). The inclusion of tonic adaptation in the model reduced steady state errors of accommodation for all conditions except when the AC/A ratio was very high (2 MA/D). Combinations of cross-link interactions between accommodation and convergence that resemble either clamped or reciprocal patterns occur naturally in clinical populations. Simulations suggest that these two patterns of abnormal cross-link interactions could affect the progression of myopia differently. Adaptable tonic accommodation and tonic vergence could potentially reduce the progression of myopia by reducing the lag of accommodation.

  5. Soft tissue freezing process. Identification of the dual-phase lag model parameters using the evolutionary algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochnacki, Bohdan; Majchrzak, Ewa; Paruch, Marek

    2018-01-01

    In the paper the soft tissue freezing process is considered. The tissue sub-domain is subjected to the action of cylindrical cryoprobe. Thermal processes proceeding in the domain considered are described using the dual-phase lag equation (DPLE) supplemented by the appropriate boundary and initial conditions. DPLE results from the generalization of the Fourier law in which two lag times are introduced (relaxation and thermalization times). The aim of research is the identification of these parameters on the basis of measured cooling curves at the set of points selected from the tissue domain. To solve the problem the evolutionary algorithms are used. The paper contains the mathematical model of the tissue freezing process, the very short information concerning the numerical solution of the basic problem, the description of the inverse problem solution and the results of computations.

  6. Robust Short-Lag Spatial Coherence Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Arun Asokan; Tran, Trac Duy; Bell, Muyinatu A Lediju

    2018-03-01

    Short-lag spatial coherence (SLSC) imaging displays the spatial coherence between backscattered ultrasound echoes instead of their signal amplitudes and is more robust to noise and clutter artifacts when compared with traditional delay-and-sum (DAS) B-mode imaging. However, SLSC imaging does not consider the content of images formed with different lags, and thus does not exploit the differences in tissue texture at each short-lag value. Our proposed method improves SLSC imaging by weighting the addition of lag values (i.e., M-weighting) and by applying robust principal component analysis (RPCA) to search for a low-dimensional subspace for projecting coherence images created with different lag values. The RPCA-based projections are considered to be denoised versions of the originals that are then weighted and added across lags to yield a final robust SLSC (R-SLSC) image. Our approach was tested on simulation, phantom, and in vivo liver data. Relative to DAS B-mode images, the mean contrast, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) improvements with R-SLSC images are 21.22 dB, 2.54, and 2.36, respectively, when averaged over simulated, phantom, and in vivo data and over all lags considered, which corresponds to mean improvements of 96.4%, 121.2%, and 120.5%, respectively. When compared with SLSC images, the corresponding mean improvements with R-SLSC images were 7.38 dB, 1.52, and 1.30, respectively (i.e., mean improvements of 14.5%, 50.5%, and 43.2%, respectively). Results show great promise for smoothing out the tissue texture of SLSC images and enhancing anechoic or hypoechoic target visibility at higher lag values, which could be useful in clinical tasks such as breast cyst visualization, liver vessel tracking, and obese patient imaging.

  7. Price and Income Elasticity of Australian Retail Finance: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Higgs

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper models the price and income elasticity of retail finance in Australia using aggregate quarterly data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL approach. We particularly focus on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC from 2007 onwards on retail finance demand and analyse four submarkets (period analysed in brackets: owneroccupied housing loans (Sep 1985–June 2010, term loans (for motor vehicles, household goods and debt consolidation, etc. (Dec 1988–Jun 2010, credit card loans (Mar 1990–Jun 2010, and margin loans (Sep 2000–Jun 2010. Other than the indicator lending rates and annual full-time earnings respectively used as proxies for the price and income effects, we specify a large number of other variables as demand factors, particularly reflecting the value of the asset for which retail finance demand is derived. These variously include the yield on indexed bonds as a proxy for inflation expectations, median housing prices, consumer sentiment indices as measures of consumer confidence, motor vehicle and retail trade sales, housing debt-to-housing assets as a measure of leverage, the proportion of protected margin lending, the available credit limit on credit cards, and the All Ordinaries Index. In the long run, we find significant price elasticities only for term loans and margin loans, and significant income elasticities of demand for housing loans, term loans and margin loans. We also find that the GFC only significantly affected the longrun demand for term loans and margin loans. In the short run, we find that the GFC has had a significant effect on the price elasticity of demand for term loans and margin loans. Expected inflation is also a key factor affecting retail finance demand. Overall, most of the submarkets in the analysis indicate that retail finance demand is certainly price inelastic but more income elastic than conventionally thought.

  8. The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ghysels, Eric; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Valkanov, Rossen

    2004-01-01

    We introduce Mixed Data Sampling (henceforth MIDAS) regression models. The regressions involve time series data sampled at different frequencies. Technically speaking MIDAS models specify conditional expectations as a distributed lag of regressors recorded at some higher sampling frequencies. We examine the asymptotic properties of MIDAS regression estimation and compare it with traditional distributed lag models. MIDAS regressions have wide applicability in macroeconomics and �nance.

  9. Fungal mycelia show lag time before re-growth on endogenous carbon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Judith K; Li, Zheng Jian; Marten, Mark R

    2008-06-15

    Nutrient starvation is a common occurrence for filamentous fungi. To better understand the effects of starvation, we used a parallel plate flow chamber to study individual fungal mycelia when subjected to a step change in glucose concentration. We report the presence of a finite "lag time" in starved mycelia during which they ceased to grow/extend while switching from growth on exogenous carbon to re-growth on endogenous carbon. This lag time precedes other morphological or physiological changes such as change in growth rate (50-70% reduction), vacuolation (up to 16%), and decreased hyphal diameter (almost 50% reduction). Data suggests that during lag time, vacuolar degradation produces sufficient endogenous carbon to support survival and restart hyphal extension. Lag time is inversely related to the size of the mycelium at the time of starvation, which suggests a critical flow of endogenous carbon to the apical tip. We present a mathematical model consistent with our experimental observations that relate lag time, area, and flow of endogenous carbon. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Assessment of Ex-Vitro Anaerobic Digestion Kinetics of Crop Residues Through First Order Exponential Models: Effect of LAG Phase Period and Curve Factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Razaque Sahito

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Kinetic studies of AD (Anaerobic Digestion process are useful to predict the performance of digesters and design appropriate digesters and also helpful in understanding inhibitory mechanisms of biodegradation. The aim of this study was to assess the anaerobic kinetics of crop residues digestion with buffalo dung. Seven crop residues namely, bagasse, banana plant waste, canola straw, cotton stalks, rice straw, sugarcane trash and wheat straw were selected from the field and were analyzed on MC (Moisture Contents, TS (Total Solids and VS (Volatile Solids with standard methods. In present study, three first order exponential models namely exponential model, exponential lag phase model and exponential curve factor model were used to assess the kinetics of the AD process of crop residues and the effect of lag phase and curve factor was analyzed based on statistical hypothesis testing and on information theory. Assessment of kinetics of the AD of crop residues and buffalo dung follows the first order kinetics. Out of the three models, the simple exponential model was the poorest model, while the first order exponential curve factor model is the best fit model. In addition to statistical hypothesis testing, the exponential curve factor model has least value of AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion and can generate methane production data more accurately. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between the lag phase period and the curve factor.

  11. Assessment of ex-vitro anaerobic digestion kinetics of crop residues through first order exponential models: effect of lag phase period and curve factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahito, A.R.; Brohi, K.M.

    2013-01-01

    Kinetic studies of AD (Anaerobic Digestion) process are useful to predict the performance of digesters and design appropriate digesters and also helpful in understanding inhibitory mechanisms of biodegradation. The aim of this study was to assess the anaerobic kinetics of crop residues digestion with buffalo dung. Seven crop residues namely, bagasse, banana plant waste, canola straw, cotton stalks, rice straw, sugarcane trash and wheat straw were selected from the field and were analyzed on MC (Moisture Contents), TS (Total Solids) and VS (Volatile Solids) with standard methods. In present study, three first order exponential models namely exponential model, exponential lag phase model and exponential curve factor model were used to assess the kinetics of the AD process of crop residues and the effect of lag phase and curve factor was analyzed based on statistical hypothesis testing and on information theory. Assessment of kinetics of the AD of crop residues and buffalo dung follows the first order kinetics. Out of the three models, the simple exponential model was the poorest model, while the first order exponential curve factor model is the best fit model. In addition to statistical hypothesis testing, the exponential curve factor model has least value of AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and can generate methane production data more accurately. Furthermore, there is an inverse linear relationship between the lag phase period and the curve factor. (author)

  12. The influence of temperature on mortality and its Lag effect: a study in four Chinese cities with different latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junzhe Bao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change is one of the most serious environmental issues faced by humanity, and the resultant change in frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells could increase mortality. The influence of temperature on human health could be immediate or delayed. Latitude, relative humidity, and air pollution may influence the temperature–mortality relationship. We studied the influence of temperature on mortality and its lag effect in four Chinese cities with a range of latitudes over 2008–2011, adjusting for relative humidity and air pollution. Methods We recorded the city-specific distributions of temperature and mortality by month and adopted a Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model to investigate the lag effect of temperature on mortality. Results We found that the coldest months in the study area are December through March and the hottest months are June through September. The ratios of deaths during cold months to hot months were 1.43, 1.54, 1.37 and 1.12 for the cities of Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The effects of extremely high temperatures generally persisted for 3 days, whereas the risk of extremely low temperatures could persist for 21 days. Compared with the optimum temperature of each city, at a lag of 21 days, the relative risks (95 % confidence interval of extreme cold temperatures were 4.78 (3.63, 6.29, 2.38 (1.35, 4.19, 2.62 (1.15, 5.95 and 2.62 (1.44, 4.79 for Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The respective risks were 1.35 (1.18, 1.55, 1.19 (0.96, 1.48, 1.22 (0.82, 1.82 and 2.47 (1.61, 3.78 for extreme hot temperatures, at a lag of 3 days. Conclusions Temperature–mortality relationships vary among cities at different latitudes. Local governments should establish regional prevention and protection measures to more effectively confront and adapt to local climate change. The effects of hot temperatures predominantly

  13. The influence of temperature on mortality and its Lag effect: a study in four Chinese cities with different latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Junzhe; Wang, Zhenkun; Yu, Chuanhua; Li, Xudong

    2016-05-04

    Global climate change is one of the most serious environmental issues faced by humanity, and the resultant change in frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells could increase mortality. The influence of temperature on human health could be immediate or delayed. Latitude, relative humidity, and air pollution may influence the temperature-mortality relationship. We studied the influence of temperature on mortality and its lag effect in four Chinese cities with a range of latitudes over 2008-2011, adjusting for relative humidity and air pollution. We recorded the city-specific distributions of temperature and mortality by month and adopted a Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model to investigate the lag effect of temperature on mortality. We found that the coldest months in the study area are December through March and the hottest months are June through September. The ratios of deaths during cold months to hot months were 1.43, 1.54, 1.37 and 1.12 for the cities of Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The effects of extremely high temperatures generally persisted for 3 days, whereas the risk of extremely low temperatures could persist for 21 days. Compared with the optimum temperature of each city, at a lag of 21 days, the relative risks (95 % confidence interval) of extreme cold temperatures were 4.78 (3.63, 6.29), 2.38 (1.35, 4.19), 2.62 (1.15, 5.95) and 2.62 (1.44, 4.79) for Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The respective risks were 1.35 (1.18, 1.55), 1.19 (0.96, 1.48), 1.22 (0.82, 1.82) and 2.47 (1.61, 3.78) for extreme hot temperatures, at a lag of 3 days. Temperature-mortality relationships vary among cities at different latitudes. Local governments should establish regional prevention and protection measures to more effectively confront and adapt to local climate change. The effects of hot temperatures predominantly occur over the short term, whereas those of cold temperatures can

  14. The cold effect of ambient temperature on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospital admissions: A large database study in Beijing, China between years 2013 and 2014-Utilizing a distributed lag non-linear analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yanxia; Li, Haibin; Huang, Fangfang; Van Halm-Lutterodt, Nicholas; Qin Xu; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Li, Xia; Liu, Mengyang; Zheng, Deqiang; Chen, Sipeng; Zhang, Feng; Yang, Xinghua; Tan, Peng; Wang, Wei; Xie, Xueqin; Guo, Xiuhua

    2018-01-01

    The effects of ambient temperature on stroke death in China have been well addressed. However, few studies are focused on the attributable burden for the incident of different types of stroke due to ambient temperature, especially in Beijing, China. We purpose to assess the influence of ambient temperature on hospital stroke admissions in Beijing, China. Data on daily temperature, air pollution, and relative humidity measurements and stroke admissions in Beijing were obtained between 2013 and 2014. Distributed lag non-linear model was employed to determine the association between daily ambient temperature and stroke admissions. Relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and Attribution fraction (AF) with 95% CI were calculated based on stroke subtype, gender and age group. A total number of 147, 624 stroke admitted cases (including hemorrhagic and ischemic types of stroke) were documented. A non-linear acute effect of cold temperature on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospital admissions was evaluated. Compared with the 25th percentile of temperature (1.2 °C), the cumulative RR of extreme cold temperature (first percentile of temperature, -9.6 °C) was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.10) over lag 0-14 days for ischemic type and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.03-1.59) for hemorrhagic stroke over lag 0-3 days. Overall, 1.57% (95% CI: 0.06%-2.88%) of ischemic stroke and 1.90% (95% CI: 0.40%-3.41%) of hemorrhagic stroke was attributed to the extreme cold temperature over lag 0-7 days and lag 0-3 days, respectively. The cold temperature's impact on stroke admissions was found to be more obvious in male gender and the youth compared to female gender and the elderly. Exposure to extreme cold temperature is associated with increasing both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke admissions in Beijing, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Four-Year Cross-Lagged Associations between Physical and Mental Health in the Medical Outcomes Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ron D.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Applied structural equation modeling to evaluation of cross-lagged panel models. Self-reports of physical and mental health at three time points spanning four-year interval were analyzed to illustrate cross-lagged analysis methodology. Data were analyzed from 856 patients with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, or depression. Cross-lagged…

  16. Detection of Time Lags between Quasar Continuum Emission Bands Based On Pan-STARRS Light Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Yan-Fei [Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Green, Paul J.; Pancoast, Anna; MacLeod, Chelsea L. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Greene, Jenny E. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Morganson, Eric; Shen, Yue [Department of Astronomy, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Anderson, Scott F.; Ruan, John J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Brandt, W. N.; Grier, C. J. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Rix, H.-W. [Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Protopapas, Pavlos [Institute for Applied Computational Science, John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Scott, Caroline [Astrophysics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Burgett, W. S.; Hodapp, K. W.; Huber, M. E.; Kaiser, N.; Kudritzki, R. P.; Magnier, E. A. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu HI 96822 (United States); and others

    2017-02-20

    We study the time lags between the continuum emission of quasars at different wavelengths, based on more than four years of multi-band ( g , r , i , z ) light curves in the Pan-STARRS Medium Deep Fields. As photons from different bands emerge from different radial ranges in the accretion disk, the lags constrain the sizes of the accretion disks. We select 240 quasars with redshifts of z ≈ 1 or z ≈ 0.3 that are relatively emission-line free. The light curves are sampled from day to month timescales, which makes it possible to detect lags on the scale of the light crossing time of the accretion disks. With the code JAVELIN , we detect typical lags of several days in the rest frame between the g band and the riz bands. The detected lags are ∼2–3 times larger than the light crossing time estimated from the standard thin disk model, consistent with the recently measured lag in NGC 5548 and microlensing measurements of quasars. The lags in our sample are found to increase with increasing luminosity. Furthermore, the increase in lags going from g − r to g − i and then to g − z is slower than predicted in the thin disk model, particularly for high-luminosity quasars. The radial temperature profile in the disk must be different from what is assumed. We also find evidence that the lags decrease with increasing line ratios between ultraviolet Fe ii lines and Mg ii, which may point to changes in the accretion disk structure at higher metallicity.

  17. Accretion Disk Reverberation with Hubble Space Telescope Observations of NGC 4593: Evidence for Diffuse Continuum Lags

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cackett, Edward M.; Chiang, Chia-Ying; McHardy, Ian; Edelson, Rick; Goad, Michael R.; Horne, Keith; Korista, Kirk T.

    2018-04-01

    The Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4593 was monitored spectroscopically with the Hubble Space Telescope as part of a reverberation mapping campaign that also included Swift, Kepler, and ground-based photometric monitoring. During 2016 July 12–August 6, we obtained 26 spectra across a nearly continuous wavelength range of ∼1150–10000 Å. These were combined with Swift data to produce a UV/optical “lag spectrum,” which shows the interband lag relative to the Swift UVW2 band as a function of wavelength. The broad shape of the lag spectrum appears to follow the τ ∝ λ 4/3 relation seen previously in photometric interband lag measurements of other active galactic nuclei (AGNs). This shape is consistent with the standard thin disk model, but the magnitude of the lags implies a disk that is a factor of ∼3 larger than predicted, again consistent with what has been previously seen in other AGNs. In all cases these large disk sizes, which are also implied by independent gravitational microlensing of higher-mass AGNs, cannot be simply reconciled with the standard model. However, the most striking feature in this higher-resolution lag spectrum is a clear excess around the 3646 Å Balmer jump. This strongly suggests that diffuse emission from gas in the much larger broad-line region (BLR) must also contribute significantly to the interband lags. While the relative contributions of the disk and BLR cannot be uniquely determined in these initial measurements, it is clear that both will need to be considered to comprehensively model and understand AGN lag spectra.

  18. Testing the Lag Structure of Assets’ Realized Volatility Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Audrino

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A (conservative test is applied to investigate the optimal lag structure for modelingrealized volatility dynamics. The testing procedure relies on the recent theoretical results that showthe ability of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso to combinee cient parameter estimation, variable selection, and valid inference for time series processes. In anapplication to several constituents of the S&P 500 index it is shown that (i the optimal significantlag structure is time-varying and subject to drastic regime shifts that seem to happen across assetssimultaneously; (ii in many cases the relevant information for prediction is included in the first 22lags, corroborating previous results concerning the accuracy and the diffculty of outperforming outof-sample the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR model; and (iii some common features of theoptimal lag structure can be identified across assets belonging to the same market segment or showinga similar beta with respect to the market index.

  19. Distributed lags time series analysis versus linear correlation analysis (Pearson's r) in identifying the relationship between antipseudomonal antibiotic consumption and the susceptibility of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates in a single Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdeljić, Viktorija; Francetić, Igor; Bošnjak, Zrinka; Budimir, Ana; Kalenić, Smilja; Bielen, Luka; Makar-Aušperger, Ksenija; Likić, Robert

    2011-05-01

    The relationship between antibiotic consumption and selection of resistant strains has been studied mainly by employing conventional statistical methods. A time delay in effect must be anticipated and this has rarely been taken into account in previous studies. Therefore, distributed lags time series analysis and simple linear correlation were compared in their ability to evaluate this relationship. Data on monthly antibiotic consumption for ciprofloxacin, piperacillin/tazobactam, carbapenems and cefepime as well as Pseudomonas aeruginosa susceptibility were retrospectively collected for the period April 2006 to July 2007. Using distributed lags analysis, a significant temporal relationship was identified between ciprofloxacin, meropenem and cefepime consumption and the resistance rates of P. aeruginosa isolates to these antibiotics. This effect was lagged for ciprofloxacin and cefepime [1 month (R=0.827, P=0.039) and 2 months (R=0.962, P=0.001), respectively] and was simultaneous for meropenem (lag 0, R=0.876, P=0.002). Furthermore, a significant concomitant effect of meropenem consumption on the appearance of multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa strains (resistant to three or more representatives of classes of antibiotics) was identified (lag 0, R=0.992, PPearson's correlation coefficient. Correlation coefficient analysis was not able to identify relationships between antibiotic consumption and bacterial resistance when the effect was delayed. These results indicate that the use of diverse statistical methods can yield significantly different results, thus leading to the introduction of possibly inappropriate infection control measures. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

  20. Jet lag prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... lose time. Symptoms of jet lag include: Trouble falling asleep or waking up Tiredness during the day ... at your destination. For longer trips, before you leave, try to adapt to the time schedule of ...

  1. The usual suspects-influence of physicochemical properties on lag time, skin deposition, and percutaneous penetration of nine model compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bo Nielsen, Jesper; Sørensen, Jens Ahm; Nielsen, Flemming

    2009-01-01

    The influence of physicochemical properties of nine model compounds on lag time, skin deposition, and percutaneous penetration was evaluated. Static diffusion cells mounted with human skin were used as the experimental model, and experiments were carried out in accordance with Organization for Ec...... agencies using experimental data for assessing systemic toxicity following dermal exposures as for development of structure activity relationships for dermal absorption of chemicals....

  2. Lag synchronization of hyperchaos with application to secure communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Chuandong; Liao Xiaofeng; Wong Kwokwo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, hyperchaotic lag synchronization is restated as a nonlinear and lag-in-time observer design issue. This approach leads to a systematic tool, which guarantees the lag synchronization of a wide class of chaotic or hyperchaotic systems via a scalar signal. By exploiting this result, we propose a hyperchaos-based cryptosystem scheme that combines the conventional cryptographic methods and the lag synchronization of chaotic circuits. The computer simulation results show that the lag synchronization scheme and the cryptosystem proposed in this paper are both feasible

  3. Lag profile inversion method for EISCAT data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. I. Virtanen

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The present standard EISCAT incoherent scatter experiments are based on alternating codes that are decoded in power domain by simple summation and subtraction operations. The signal is first digitised and then different lagged products are calculated and decoded in real time. Only the decoded lagged products are saved for further analysis so that both the original data samples and the undecoded lagged products are lost. A fit of plasma parameters can be later performed using the recorded lagged products. In this paper we describe a different analysis method, which makes use of statistical inversion in removing range ambiguities from the lag profiles. An analysis program carrying out both the lag profile inversion and the fit of the plasma parameters has been constructed. Because recording the received signal itself instead of the lagged products allows very flexible data analysis, the program is constructed to use raw data, i.e. IQ-sampled signal recorded from an IF stage of the radar. The program is now capable of analysing standard alternating-coded EISCAT experiments as well as experiments with any other kind of radar modulation if raw data is available. The program calculates the ambiguous lag profiles and is capable of inverting them as such but, for analysis in real time, time integration is needed before inversion. We demonstrate the method using alternating code experiments in the EISCAT UHF radar and specific hardware connected to the second IF stage of the receiver. This method produces a data stream of complex samples, which are stored for later processing. The raw data is analysed with lag profile inversion and the results are compared to those given by the standard method.

  4. Testing the Causal Links between School Climate, School Violence, and School Academic Performance: A Cross-Lagged Panel Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benbenishty, Rami; Astor, Ron Avi; Roziner, Ilan; Wrabel, Stephani L.

    2016-01-01

    The present study explores the causal link between school climate, school violence, and a school's general academic performance over time using a school-level, cross-lagged panel autoregressive modeling design. We hypothesized that reductions in school violence and climate improvement would lead to schools' overall improved academic performance.…

  5. Statistical time lags in ac discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobota, A; Kanters, J H M; Van Veldhuizen, E M; Haverlag, M; Manders, F

    2011-01-01

    The paper presents statistical time lags measured for breakdown events in near-atmospheric pressure argon and xenon. Ac voltage at 100, 400 and 800 kHz was used to drive the breakdown processes, and the voltage amplitude slope was varied between 10 and 1280 V ms -1 . The values obtained for the statistical time lags are roughly between 1 and 150 ms. It is shown that the statistical time lags in ac-driven discharges follow the same general trends as the discharges driven by voltage of monotonic slope. In addition, the validity of the Cobine-Easton expression is tested at an alternating voltage form.

  6. Statistical time lags in ac discharges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobota, A; Kanters, J H M; Van Veldhuizen, E M; Haverlag, M [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Applied Physics, Postbus 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Manders, F, E-mail: a.sobota@tue.nl [Philips Lighting, LightLabs, Mathildelaan 1, 5600JM Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2011-04-06

    The paper presents statistical time lags measured for breakdown events in near-atmospheric pressure argon and xenon. Ac voltage at 100, 400 and 800 kHz was used to drive the breakdown processes, and the voltage amplitude slope was varied between 10 and 1280 V ms{sup -1}. The values obtained for the statistical time lags are roughly between 1 and 150 ms. It is shown that the statistical time lags in ac-driven discharges follow the same general trends as the discharges driven by voltage of monotonic slope. In addition, the validity of the Cobine-Easton expression is tested at an alternating voltage form.

  7. SOFT LAGS IN NEUTRON STAR kHz QUASI-PERIODIC OSCILLATIONS: EVIDENCE FOR REVERBERATION?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barret, Didier, E-mail: didier.barret@irap.omp.eu [Universite de Toulouse, UPS-OMP, IRAP, F-31400 Toulouse (France); CNRS, Institut de Recherche en Astrophysique et Planetologie, 9 Av. colonel Roche, BP 44346, F-31028 Toulouse cedex 4 (France)

    2013-06-10

    High frequency soft reverberation lags have now been detected from stellar mass and supermassive black holes. Their interpretation involves reflection of a hard source of photons onto an accretion disk, producing a delayed reflected emission, with a time lag consistent with the light travel time between the irradiating source and the disk. Independently of the location of the clock, the kHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) emission is thought to arise from the neutron star boundary layer. Here, we search for the signature of reverberation of the kHz QPO emission, by measuring the soft lags and the lag energy spectrum of the lower kHz QPOs from 4U1608-522. Soft lags, ranging from {approx}15 to {approx}40 {mu}s, between the 3-8 keV and 8-30 keV modulated emissions are detected between 565 and 890 Hz. The soft lags are not constant with frequency and show a smooth decrease between 680 Hz and 890 Hz. The broad band X-ray spectrum is modeled as the sum of a disk and a thermal Comptonized component, plus a broad iron line, expected from reflection. The spectral parameters follow a smooth relationship with the QPO frequency, in particular the fitted inner disk radius decreases steadily with frequency. Both the bump around the iron line in the lag energy spectrum and the consistency between the lag changes and the inferred changes of the inner disk radius, from either spectral fitting or the QPO frequency, suggest that the soft lags may indeed involve reverberation of the hard pulsating QPO source on the disk.

  8. The Effect of Nonzero Autocorrelation Coefficients on the Distributions of Durbin-Watson Test Estimator: Three Autoregressive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Yu LEE

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of the nonzero autocorrelation coefficients on the sampling distributions of the Durbin-Watson test estimator in three time-series models that have different variance-covariance matrix assumption, separately. We show that the expected values and variances of the Durbin-Watson test estimator are slightly different, but the skewed and kurtosis coefficients are considerably different among three models. The shapes of four coefficients are similar between the Durbin-Watson model and our benchmark model, but are not the same with the autoregressive model cut by one-lagged period. Second, the large sample case shows that the three models have the same expected values, however, the autoregressive model cut by one-lagged period explores different shapes of variance, skewed and kurtosis coefficients from the other two models. This implies that the large samples lead to the same expected values, 2(1 – ρ0, whatever the variance-covariance matrix of the errors is assumed. Finally, comparing with the two sample cases, the shape of each coefficient is almost the same, moreover, the autocorrelation coefficients are negatively related with expected values, are inverted-U related with variances, are cubic related with skewed coefficients, and are U related with kurtosis coefficients.

  9. Identification of a Typical CSTR Using Optimal Focused Time Lagged Recurrent Neural Network Model with Gamma Memory Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Naikwad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A focused time lagged recurrent neural network (FTLR NN with gamma memory filter is designed to learn the subtle complex dynamics of a typical CSTR process. Continuous stirred tank reactor exhibits complex nonlinear operations where reaction is exothermic. It is noticed from literature review that process control of CSTR using neuro-fuzzy systems was attempted by many, but optimal neural network model for identification of CSTR process is not yet available. As CSTR process includes temporal relationship in the input-output mappings, time lagged recurrent neural network is particularly used for identification purpose. The standard back propagation algorithm with momentum term has been proposed in this model. The various parameters like number of processing elements, number of hidden layers, training and testing percentage, learning rule and transfer function in hidden and output layer are investigated on the basis of performance measures like MSE, NMSE, and correlation coefficient on testing data set. Finally effects of different norms are tested along with variation in gamma memory filter. It is demonstrated that dynamic NN model has a remarkable system identification capability for the problems considered in this paper. Thus FTLR NN with gamma memory filter can be used to learn underlying highly nonlinear dynamics of the system, which is a major contribution of this paper.

  10. Behavioral Processes in Long-Lag Intervention Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Dale T; Dannals, Jennifer E; Zlatev, Julian J

    2017-05-01

    We argue that psychologists who conduct experiments with long lags between the manipulation and the outcome measure should pay more attention to behavioral processes that intervene between the manipulation and the outcome measure. Neglect of such processes, we contend, stems from psychology's long tradition of short-lag lab experiments where there is little scope for intervening behavioral processes. Studying process in the lab invariably involves studying psychological processes, but in long-lag field experiments it is important to study causally relevant behavioral processes as well as psychological ones. To illustrate the roles that behavioral processes can play in long-lag experiments we examine field experiments motivated by three policy-relevant goals: prejudice reduction, health promotion, and educational achievement. In each of the experiments discussed we identify various behavioral pathways through which the manipulated psychological state could have produced the observed outcome. We argue that if psychologists conducting long-lag interventions posited a theory of change that linked manipulated psychological states to outcomes via behavioral pathways, the result would be richer theory and more practically useful research. Movement in this direction would also permit more opportunities for productive collaborations between psychologists and other social scientists interested in similar social problems.

  11. Comparison of time/phase lags in the hard state and plateau state of GRS 1915+105

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pahari, Mayukh; Yadav, J. S. [Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Mumbai, India (MP) (India); Neilsen, Joseph [Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Misra, Ranjeev [Inter University Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pune (India); Uttley, Phil, E-mail: mp@tifr.res.in [Astronomical Institute, " Anton Pannekoek," University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098-XH Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the complex behavior of energy- and frequency-dependent time/phase lags in the plateau state and the radio-quiet hard (χ) state of GRS 1915+105. In our timing analysis, we find that when the source is faint in the radio, quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are observed above 2 Hz and typically exhibit soft lags (soft photons lag hard photons), whereas QPOs in the radio-bright plateau state are found below 2.2 Hz and consistently show hard lags. The phase lag at the QPO frequency is strongly anti-correlated with that frequency, changing sign at 2.2 Hz. However, the phase lag at the frequency of the first harmonic is positive and nearly independent of that frequency at ∼0.172 rad, regardless of the radio emission. The lag energy dependence at the first harmonic is also independent of radio flux. However, the lags at the QPO frequency are negative at all energies during the radio-quiet state, but lags at the QPO frequency during the plateau state are positive at all energies and show a 'reflection-type' evolution of the lag energy spectra with respect to the radio-quiet state. The lag energy dependence is roughly logarithmic, but there is some evidence for a break around 4-6 keV. Finally, the Fourier-frequency-dependent phase lag spectra are fairly flat during the plateau state, but increase from negative to positive during the radio-quiet state. We discuss the implications of our results in light of some generic models.

  12. Spatial and temporal dynamics of deep percolation, lag time and recharge in an irrigated semi-arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazarieh, F.; Ansari, H.; Ziaei, A. N.; Izady, A.; Davari, K.; Brunner, P.

    2018-05-01

    The time required for deep percolating water to reach the water table can be considerable in areas with a thick vadose zone. Sustainable groundwater management, therefore, has to consider the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. The key parameters that control the lag time have been widely examined in soil physics using small-scale lysimeters and modeling studies. However, only a small number of studies have analyzed how deep-percolation rates affect groundwater recharge dynamics over large spatial scales. This study examined how the parameters influencing lag time affect groundwater recharge in a semi-arid catchment under irrigation (in northeastern Iran) using a numerical modeling approach. Flow simulations were performed by the MODFLOW-NWT code with the Vadose-Zone Flow (UZF) Package. Calibration of the groundwater model was based on data from 48 observation wells. Flow simulations showed that lag times vary from 1 to more than 100 months. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that during drought conditions, the lag time was highly sensitive to the rate of deep percolation. The study illustrated two critical points: (1) the importance of providing estimates of the lag time as a basis for sustainable groundwater management, and (2) lag time not only depends on factors such as soil hydraulic conductivity or vadose zone depth but also depends on the deep-percolation rates and the antecedent soil-moisture condition. Therefore, estimates of the lag time have to be associated with specific percolation rates, in addition to depth to groundwater and soil properties.

  13. Modelling lateral entrapment of suspended sediment in estuaries : The role of spatial lags in settling and M4 tidal flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Zhongyong; de Swart, Huib E.; Cheng, Heqin; Jiang, Chenjuan; Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo

    2014-01-01

    The effect of the joint action of M2 and M4 tidal flow, residual flow and spatial settling lag on the lateral entrapment of sediment is examined in tidally dominated estuaries with an idealized model that assumes along-estuary uniform conditions. Approximate solutions are obtained for arbitrary

  14. Leading and lagging indicators of occupational health and safety: The moderating role of safety leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Cathy; Donohue, Ross; Shea, Tracey; Cooper, Brian; Cieri, Helen De

    2016-07-01

    In response to the call for empirical evidence of a connection between leading and lagging indicators of occupational health and safety (OHS), the first aim of the current research is to consider the association between leading and lagging indicators of OHS. Our second aim is to investigate the moderating effect of safety leadership on the association between leading and lagging indicators. Data were collected from 3578 employees nested within 66 workplaces. Multi-level modelling was used to test the two hypotheses. The results confirm an association between leading and lagging indicators of OHS as well as the moderating impact of middle management safety leadership on the direct association. The association between leading and lagging indicators provides OHS practitioners with useful information to substantiate efforts within organisations to move away from a traditional focus on lagging indicators towards a preventative focus on leading indicators. The research also highlights the important role played by middle managers and the value of OHS leadership development and investment at the middle management level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. On the Nature of QPO Phase Lags in Black Hole Candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaposhnikov, Nikolai

    2012-01-01

    Observations of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in X-ray binaries hold a key to understanding many aspects of these enigmatic systems. Complex appearance of the Fourier phase lags related to QPOs is one of the most puzzling observational effects in accreting black holes. In this Letter we show that QPO properties, including phase lags, can be explained in a framework of a simple scenario, where the oscillating media provides a feedback on the emerging spectrum. We demonstrate that the QPO waveform is presented by the product of a perturbation and a time delayed response factors, where the response is energy dependent. The essential property of this effect is its non-linear and multiplicative nature. Our multiplicative reverberation model successfully describes the QPO components in energy dependent power spectra as well as the appearance of the phase lags between signal in different energy bands. We apply our model to QPOs observed by Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer in BH candidate XTE J1550-564. We briefly discuss the implications of the observed energy dependence of the QPO reverberation times and amplitudes to the nature of the power law spectral component and its variability.

  16. Analysis of Quasi-periodic Oscillations and Time Lag in Ultraluminous X-Ray Sources with XMM-Newton

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zi-Jian; Xiao, Guang-Cheng; Zhang, Shu; Ma, Xiang; Yan, Lin-Li; Qu, Jin-Lu [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19B Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Chen, Li; Bu, Qing-Cui; Zhang, Liang, E-mail: lizijian@ihep.ac.cn, E-mail: qujl@ihep.ac.cn [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China)

    2017-04-10

    We investigated the power density spectrum (PDS) and time lag of ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs) observed by XMM-Newton . We determined the PDSs for each ULX and found that five of them show intrinsic variability due to obvious quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) of mHz–1 Hz, consistent with previous reports. We further investigated these five ULXs to determine their possible time lag. The ULX QPOs exhibit a soft time lag that is linearly related to the QPO frequency. We discuss the likelihood of the ULX QPOs being type-C QPO analogs, and the time lag models. The ULXs might harbor intermediate-mass black holes if their QPOs are type-C QPO analogs. We suggest that the soft lag and the linearity may be due to reverberation.

  17. CRISPR-Cas9 mediated LAG-3 disruption in CAR-T cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongping; Zhang, Xingying; Cheng, Chen; Mu, Wei; Liu, Xiaojuan; Li, Na; Wei, Xiaofei; Liu, Xiang; Xia, Changqing; Wang, Haoyi

    2017-12-01

    T cells engineered with chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) have been successfully applied to treat advanced refractory B cell malignancy. However, many challenges remain in extending its application toward the treatment of solid tumors. The immunosuppressive nature of tumor microenvironment is considered one of the key factors limiting CAR-T efficacy. One negative regulator of Tcell activity is lymphocyte activation gene-3 (LAG-3). We successfully generated LAG-3 knockout Tand CAR-T cells with high efficiency using CRISPR-Cas9 mediated gene editing and found that the viability and immune phenotype were not dramatically changed during in vitro culture. LAG-3 knockout CAR-T cells displayed robust antigen-specific antitumor activity in cell culture and in murine xenograft model, which is comparable to standard CAR-T cells. Our study demonstrates an efficient approach to silence immune checkpoint in CAR-T cells via gene editing.

  18. Corporate Governance and Audit Report Lag in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad Naimi Mohamad-Nor; ; Rohami Shafie; Wan Nordin Wan-Hussin

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines audit report lag in Malaysian public listed companies, following the implementation of the Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance in 2001. It departs from the standard audit report lag studies by incorporating characteristics of the board of directors and the audit committee. Multivariate analysis using 628 annual reports for the year ended 2002 indicates that active and larger audit committees shorten audit lag. However, we fail to find evidence that audit committee indep...

  19. Statistical performance and information content of time lag analysis and redundancy analysis in time series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G; Viedma, Olga; Moreno, José M

    2009-11-01

    Time lag analysis (TLA) is a distance-based approach used to study temporal dynamics of ecological communities by measuring community dissimilarity over increasing time lags. Despite its increased use in recent years, its performance in comparison with other more direct methods (i.e., canonical ordination) has not been evaluated. This study fills this gap using extensive simulations and real data sets from experimental temporary ponds (true zooplankton communities) and landscape studies (landscape categories as pseudo-communities) that differ in community structure and anthropogenic stress history. Modeling time with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices (PCNM) approach, the canonical ordination technique (redundancy analysis; RDA) consistently outperformed the other statistical tests (i.e., TLAs, Mantel test, and RDA based on linear time trends) using all real data. In addition, the RDA-PCNM revealed different patterns of temporal change, and the strength of each individual time pattern, in terms of adjusted variance explained, could be evaluated, It also identified species contributions to these patterns of temporal change. This additional information is not provided by distance-based methods. The simulation study revealed better Type I error properties of the canonical ordination techniques compared with the distance-based approaches when no deterministic component of change was imposed on the communities. The simulation also revealed that strong emphasis on uniform deterministic change and low variability at other temporal scales is needed to result in decreased statistical power of the RDA-PCNM approach relative to the other methods. Based on the statistical performance of and information content provided by RDA-PCNM models, this technique serves ecologists as a powerful tool for modeling temporal change of ecological (pseudo-) communities.

  20. Low lag luminescent phosphors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    The addition of potassium or rubidium salts to europium-activated fluorohalide phosphors produces X-ray screens with low lag, even at very low europium concentrations. The chemical preparation and afterglow test results are described

  1. Distributed Modelling of Stormflow Generation: Assessing the Effect of Ground Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarihani, B.; Sidle, R. C.; Roth, C. H.; Bartley, R.; Wilkinson, S. N.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the effects of grazing management and land cover changes on surface hydrology is important for water resources and land management. A distributed hydrological modelling platform, wflow, (that was developed as part of Deltares's OpenStreams project) is used to assess the effect of land management practices on runoff generation processes. The model was applied to Weany Creek, a small catchment (13.6 km2) of the Burdekin Basin, North Australia, which is being studied to understand sources of sediment and nutrients to the Great Barrier Reef. Satellite and drone-based ground cover data, high resolution topography from LiDAR, soil properties, and distributed rainfall data were used to parameterise the model. Wflow was used to predict total runoff, peak runoff, time of rise, and lag time for several events of varying magnitudes and antecedent moisture conditions. A nested approach was employed to calibrate the model by using recorded flow hydrographs at three scales: (1) a hillslope sub-catchment: (2) a gullied sub-catchment; and the 13.6 km2 catchment outlet. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and predicted stormflow hydrograph attributes using the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric. By using a nested approach, spatiotemporal patterns of overland flow occurrence across the catchment can also be evaluated. The results show that a process-based distributed model can be calibrated to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of runoff generation processes, to help identify dominant processes which may be addressed by land management to improve rainfall retention. The model will be used to assess the effects of ground cover changes due to management practices in grazed lands on storm runoff.

  2. Reciprocal Effects between Intrinsic Reading Motivation and Reading Competence? A Cross-Lagged Panel Model for Academic Track and Nonacademic Track Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffner, Ellen; Philipp, Maik; Schiefele, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has demonstrated positive relations between intrinsic reading motivation and reading competence. However, the causal direction of these relations and the moderating role of relevant background variables (e.g., students' achievement level) are not well understood. In the present study, a cross-lagged panel model was applied to…

  3. Do subjective symptoms predict our perception of jet-lag?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterhouse, J; Edwards, B; Nevill, A; Atkinson, G; Reilly, T; Davies, P; Godfrey, R

    2000-10-01

    A total of 39 subjects were studied after a flight from the UK to either Sydney or Brisbane (10 time-zones to the east). Subjects varied widely in their age, their athletic ability, whether or not they were taking melatonin, and in their objectives when in Australia. For the first 6 days after arrival, subjects scored their jet-lag five times per day and other subjective variables up to five times per day, using visual analogue scales. For jet-lag, the scale was labelled 0 = no jet-lag to 10 = very bad jet-lag; the extremes of the other scales were labelled - 5 and + 5, indicating marked changes compared with normal, and the centrepoint was labelled 0 indicating 'normal'. Mean daily values for jet-lag and fatigue were initially high (+ 3.65 +/- 0.35 and + 1.55 +/- 0.22 on day 1, respectively) and fell progressively on subsequent days, but were still raised significantly (p concentration and motivation, and rises in irritability and nocturnal wakings, had recovered by day 4 or earlier, and bowel activity was less frequent, with harder stools, on days 1 and 2 only. Also, on day 1, there was a decrease in the ease of getting to sleep (- 1.33 +/- 0.55), but this changed to an increase from day 2 onwards (for example, + 0.75 +/- 0.25 on day 6). Stepwise regression analysis was used to investigate predictors of jet-lag. The severity of jet-lag at all the times that were measured was strongly predicted by fatigue ratings made at the same time. Its severity at 08:00 h was predicted by an earlier time of waking, by feeling less alert 30 min after waking and, marginally, by the number of waking episodes. Jet-lag at 12:00 and 16:00 h was strongly predicted by a fall of concentration at these times; jet-lag at mealtimes (12:00, 16:00 and 20:00 h) was predicted by the amount of feeling bloated. Such results complicate an exact interpretation that can be placed on an assessment of a global term such as jet-lag, particularly if the assessment is made only once per day.

  4. Recent trends for drug lag in clinical development of oncology drugs in Japan: does the oncology drug lag still exist in Japan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Hideki; Kurokawa, Tatsuo

    2015-12-01

    This study exhaustively and historically investigated the status of drug lag for oncology drugs approved in Japan. We comprehensively investigated oncology drugs approved in Japan between April 2001 and July 2014, using publicly available information. We also examined changes in the status of drug lag between Japan and the United States, as well as factors influencing drug lag. This study included 120 applications for approval of oncology drugs in Japan. The median difference over a 13-year period in the approval date between the United States and Japan was 875 days (29.2 months). This figure peaked in 2002, and showed a tendency to decline gradually each year thereafter. In 2014, the median approval lag was 281 days (9.4 months). Multiple regression analysis identified the following potential factors that reduce drug lag: "Japan's participation in global clinical trials"; "bridging strategies"; "designation of priority review in Japan"; and "molecularly targeted drugs". From 2001 to 2014, molecularly targeted drugs emerged as the predominant oncology drug, and the method of development has changed from full development in Japan or bridging strategy to global simultaneous development by Japan's taking part in global clinical trials. In line with these changes, the drug lag between the United States and Japan has significantly reduced to less than 1 year.

  5. Chimera and modulated drift states in a ring of nonlocally coupled oscillators with heterogeneous phase lags

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Chol-Ung; Kim, Ryong-Son; Ri, Ji-Song

    2017-09-01

    We consider a ring of phase oscillators with nonlocal coupling strength and heterogeneous phase lags. We analyze the effects of heterogeneity in the phase lags on the existence and stability of a variety of steady states. A nonlocal coupling with heterogeneous phase lags that allows the system to be solved analytically is suggested and the stability of solutions along the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold is explored. We present a complete bifurcation diagram for stationary patterns including the uniform drift and modulated drift states as well as chimera state, which reveals that the stable modulated drift state and a continuum of metastable drift states could occur due to the heterogeneity of the phase lags. We verify our theoretical results using the direct numerical simulations of the model system.

  6. An Evaluation of a Phase-Lag Boundary Condition for Francis Hydroturbine Simulations Using a Pressure-Based Solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouden, Alex; Cimbala, John; Lewis, Bryan

    2014-11-01

    While the periodic boundary condition is useful for handling rotational symmetry in many axisymmetric geometries, its application fails for analysis of rotor-stator interaction (RSI) in multi-stage turbomachinery flow. The inadequacy arises from the underlying geometry where the blade counts per row differ, since the blade counts are crafted to deter the destructive harmonic forces of synchronous blade passing. Therefore, to achieve the computational advantage of modeling a single blade passage per row while preserving the integrity of the RSI, a phase-lag boundary condition is adapted to OpenFOAM® software's incompressible pressure-based solver. The phase-lag construct is accomplished through restating the implicit periodic boundary condition as a constant boundary condition that is updated at each time step with phase-shifted data from the coupled cells adjacent to the boundary. Its effectiveness is demonstrated using a typical Francis hydroturbine modeled as single- and double-passages with phase-lag boundary conditions. The evaluation of the phase-lag condition is based on the correspondence of the overall computational performance and the calculated flow parameters of the phase-lag simulations with those of a baseline full-wheel simulation. Funded in part by DOE Award Number: DE-EE0002667.

  7. On the phase lag of turbulent dissipation in rotating tidal flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qianjiang; Wu, Jiaxue

    2018-03-01

    Field observations of rotating tidal flows in a shallow tidally swept sea reveal that a notable phase lag of both shear production and turbulent dissipation increases with height above the seafloor. These vertical delays of turbulent quantities are approximately equivalent in magnitude to that of squared mean shear. The shear production approximately equals turbulent dissipation over the phase-lag column, and thus a main mechanism of phase lag of dissipation is mean shear, rather than vertical diffusion of turbulent kinetic energy. By relating the phase lag of dissipation to that of the mean shear, a simple formulation with constant eddy viscosity is developed to describe the phase lag in rotating tidal flows. An analytical solution indicates that the phase lag increases linearly with height subjected to a combined effect of tidal frequency, Coriolis parameter and eddy viscosity. The vertical diffusion of momentum associated with eddy viscosity produces the phase lag of squared mean shear, and resultant delay of turbulent quantities. Its magnitude is inhibited by Earth's rotation. Furthermore, a theoretical formulation of the phase lag with a parabolic eddy viscosity profile can be constructed. A first-order approximation of this formulation is still a linear function of height, and its magnitude is approximately 0.8 times that with constant viscosity. Finally, the theoretical solutions of phase lag with realistic viscosity can be satisfactorily justified by realistic phase lags of dissipation.

  8. Fiscal policy lags and income adjustment processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Cesare, Luigi; Sportelli, Mario

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► There are delays either in the government expenditure or in the tax system. ► Both delays affect fiscal policy outcomes. ► The system of differential equations with two delays may be chaotic. ► Fiscal policy outcomes might be inconsistent with their stabilization purposes. - Abstract: The interest in the impact of fiscal policy lags on economic stability increased in the last decade. Several studies have been made on delays either in the government expenditure or in the tax system, where lags exist between the accrual and the payment of taxes. Nevertheless there is in the literature no model where time delays in government expenditures and in tax revenues are considered together as it happens in the real world. In this paper we remedied this defect and proposed a macro-dynamic model where two delays appear: the first pertains to the public expenditure, the second, to the tax revenue. The resulting system of delayed differential equations is studied qualitatively and numerically. The analysis suggests that only particular combinations of the two delays make the system stable. Prevalently the system is unstable and chaotic motions may arise. This implies that the economy may need appropriate structural changes in the public sector to improve fiscal policy outcomes in such a way they may really be consistent with their stabilization purposes.

  9. Iterative equalization for OFDM systems over wideband Multi-Scale Multi-Lag channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, T.; Tang, Z.; Remis, R.; Leus, G.

    2012-01-01

    OFDM suffers from inter-carrier interference (ICI) when the channel is time varying. This article seeks to quantify the amount of interference resulting from wideband OFDM channels, which are assumed to follow the multi-scale multi-lag (MSML) model. The MSML channel model results in full channel

  10. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-06-03

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

  11. Modelling of the influence of the 'Flimserstein' tunnel on the Lag Tiert karstic spring in Flims; Modellierung des Einflusses des Flimserstein-Tunnels auf die Karstquelle des Lag Tiert (Flims, GR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeannin, P.-Y.; Haeuselmann, P. [Schweizerisches Institut fuer Spelaeologie und Karstkunde SISKA, La Chaux-de-Fonds (Switzerland); Wildberger, A. [Dr. von Moos AG, Geotechnisches Buero, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2007-12-15

    This report describes the modelling of the influence of the 'Flimserstein' tunnel on the Lag Tiert karstic spring in Flims, Switzerland. When the tunnel, that provides a by-pass for the mountain village of Flims, was built, a karstic system was broached. As a result, several springs dried up and others had their capacity reduced. Also, the quantity of water available for a local hydropower station was reduced. The report describes how the situation as far as the underground watercourses are concerned was modelled and how exactly the tunnel construction changed the water-quantities at the various springs. The results of the study are presented and discussed and recommendations are made concerning the modelling of such karstic systems.

  12. Identification of a Typical CSTR Using Optimal Focused Time Lagged Recurrent Neural Network Model with Gamma Memory Filter

    OpenAIRE

    Naikwad, S. N.; Dudul, S. V.

    2009-01-01

    A focused time lagged recurrent neural network (FTLR NN) with gamma memory filter is designed to learn the subtle complex dynamics of a typical CSTR process. Continuous stirred tank reactor exhibits complex nonlinear operations where reaction is exothermic. It is noticed from literature review that process control of CSTR using neuro-fuzzy systems was attempted by many, but optimal neural network model for identification of CSTR process is not yet available. As CSTR process includes tempora...

  13. GHRH excess and blockade in X-LAG syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Adrian F; Lysy, Philippe A; Desfilles, Céline; Rostomyan, Liliya; Mohamed, Amira; Caberg, Jean-Hubert; Raverot, Veronique; Castermans, Emilie; Marbaix, Etienne; Maiter, Dominique; Brunelle, Chloe; Trivellin, Giampaolo; Stratakis, Constantine A; Bours, Vincent; Raftopoulos, Christian; Beauloye, Veronique; Barlier, Anne; Beckers, Albert

    2016-03-01

    X-linked acrogigantism (X-LAG) syndrome is a newly described form of inheritable pituitary gigantism that begins in early childhood and is usually associated with markedly elevated GH and prolactin secretion by mixed pituitary adenomas/hyperplasia. Microduplications on chromosome Xq26.3 including the GPR101 gene cause X-LAG syndrome. In individual cases random GHRH levels have been elevated. We performed a series of hormonal profiles in a young female sporadic X-LAG syndrome patient and subsequently undertook in vitro studies of primary pituitary tumor culture following neurosurgical resection. The patient demonstrated consistently elevated circulating GHRH levels throughout preoperative testing, which was accompanied by marked GH and prolactin hypersecretion; GH demonstrated a paradoxical increase following TRH administration. In vitro, the pituitary cells showed baseline GH and prolactin release that was further stimulated by GHRH administration. Co-incubation with GHRH and the GHRH receptor antagonist, acetyl-(d-Arg(2))-GHRH (1-29) amide, blocked the GHRH-induced GH stimulation; the GHRH receptor antagonist alone significantly reduced GH release. Pasireotide, but not octreotide, inhibited GH secretion. A ghrelin receptor agonist and an inverse agonist led to modest, statistically significant increases and decreases in GH secretion, respectively. GHRH hypersecretion can accompany the pituitary abnormalities seen in X-LAG syndrome. These data suggest that the pathology of X-LAG syndrome may include hypothalamic dysregulation of GHRH secretion, which is in keeping with localization of GPR101 in the hypothalamus. Therapeutic blockade of GHRH secretion could represent a way to target the marked hormonal hypersecretion and overgrowth that characterizes X-LAG syndrome. © 2016 Society for Endocrinology.

  14. Temporal evolution of photon energy emitted from two-component advective flows: origin of time lag

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Arka; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Ghosh, Himadri

    2017-12-01

    X-ray time lag of black hole candidates contains important information regarding the emission geometry. Recently, study of time lags from observational data revealed very intriguing properties. To investigate the real cause of this lag behavior with energy and spectral states, we study photon paths inside a two-component advective flow (TCAF) which appears to be a satisfactory model to explain the spectral and timing properties. We employ the Monte Carlo simulation technique to carry out the Comptonization process. We use a relativistic thick disk in Schwarzschild geometry as the CENtrifugal pressure supported BOundary Layer (CENBOL) which is the Compton cloud. In TCAF, this is the post-shock region of the advective component. Keplerian disk on the equatorial plane which is truncated at the inner edge i.e. at the outer boundary of the CENBOL, acts as the soft photon source. Ray-tracing code is employed to track the photons to a distantly located observer. We compute the cumulative time taken by a photon during Comptonization, reflection and following the curved geometry on the way to the observer. Time lags between various hard and soft bands have been calculated. We study the variation of time lags with accretion rates, CENBOL size and inclination angle. Time lags for different energy channels are plotted for different inclination angles. The general trend of variation of time lag with QPO frequency and energy as observed in satellite data is reproduced.

  15. Advances on the time differential three-phase-lag heat conduction model and major open issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Apice, Ciro; Zampoli, Vittorio

    2017-07-01

    The main purpose of this short contribution is to summarize the recent achievements concerning the so-called time differential three-phase-lag heat conduction model, contextually focusing attention on some of the numerous open problems associated with such an attractive theory. After having briefly recalled the origin of the model at issue, the restrictions upon the delay times and the constitutive tensors able to make it thermodynamically consistent are recalled. Under these hypotheses, the investigation of the well-posedness issue has already provided important results in terms of uniqueness and continuous dependence of the solutions (even related to the thermoelastic case), as well as in terms of existence of a domain of influence of the assigned data in connection with the thermoelastic model. Finally, some of the main problems currently object of investigation are recalled, including the very challenging issues about the different possible choices of Taylor series expansion orders for the constitutive equation, the interaction of the model with energy processes that take place on the nanoscale, with multi-porous materials and with biological systems.

  16. Revisiting the Correlations of Peak Luminosity with Spectral Lag and Peak Energy of the Observed Gamma-ray Bursts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-A Jo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of light curves and spectra of observed gamma-ray bursts in gamma-ray ranges is frequently demanded because the prompt emission contains immediate details regarding the central engine of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs. We have revisited the relationship between the collimation-corrected peak luminosity and the spectral lag, investigating the lag-luminosity relationships in great detail by focusing on spectral lags resulting from all possible combinations of channels. Firstly, we compiled the opening angle data and demonstrated that the distribution of opening angles of 205 long GRBs is represented by a double Gaussian function having maxima at ~ 0.1 and ~ 0.3 radians. We confirmed that the peak luminosity and the spectral lag are anti-correlated, both in the observer frame and in the source frame. We found that, in agreement with our previous conclusion, the correlation coefficient improves significantly in the source frame. It should be noted that spectral lags involving channel 2 (25-50 keV yield high correlation coefficients, where Swift/Burst Alert Telescope (BAT has four energy channels (channel 1: 15-25 keV, channel 2: 25-50 keV, channel 3: 50-100 keV, channel 4: 100-200 keV. We also found that peak luminosity is positively correlated with peak energy.

  17. Wind turbine blade vibration at standstill conditions — the effect of imposing lag on the aerodynamic response of an elastically mounted airfoil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skrzypinski, Witold Robert; Gaunaa, Mac

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated physical phenomena related to stall-induced vibrations potentially existing on wind turbine blades at standstill conditions. The study considered two-dimensional airfoil sections while it omitted three-dimensional effects. In the study, a new engineering-type...... computational model for the aeroelastic response of an elastically mounted airfoil was used to investigate the influence of temporal lag in the aerodynamic response on the aeroelastic stability in deep stall. The study indicated that even a relatively low lag significantly increases the damping of the model....... A comparison between the results from a model with lag imposed on all force components with the results from a model with lag imposed exclusively on the lift showed only marginal difference between the damping in the two cases. A parameter study involving positions of the elastic hinge point and the center...

  18. Assessing delay and lag in sagittal trunk control using a tracking task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, N Peter; Luis, Abraham; Chan, Elizabeth C; Sal Y Rosas, Victor G; Tanaka, Martin L

    2018-05-17

    Slower trunk muscle responses are linked to back pain and injury. Unfortunately, clinical assessments of spine function do not objectively evaluate this important attribute, which reflects speed of trunk control. Speed of trunk control can be parsed into two components: (1) delay, the time it takes to initiate a movement, and (2) lag, the time it takes to execute a movement once initiated. The goal of this study is to demonstrate a new approach to assess delay and lag in trunk control using a simple tracking task. Ten healthy subjects performed four blocks of six trials of trunk tracking in the sagittal plane. Delay and lag were estimated by modeling trunk control for predictable and unpredictable (control mode) trunk movements in flexion and extension (control direction) at movement amplitudes of 2°, 4°, and 6° (control amplitude). The main effect of control mode, direction, and amplitude of movement were compared between trial blocks to assess secondary influencers (e.g., fatigue). Only control mode was consistent across trial blocks with predictable movements being faster than unpredictable for both delay and lag. Control direction and amplitude effects on delay and lag were consistent across the first two trial blocks and less consistent in later blocks. Given the heterogeneity in the presentation of back pain, clinical assessment of trunk control should include different control modes, directions, and amplitudes. To reduce testing time and the influence of fatigue, we recommend six trials to assess trunk control. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Binary nucleation kinetics. III. Transient behavior and time lags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyslouzil, B.E.; Wilemski, G.

    1996-01-01

    Transient binary nucleation is more complex than unary because of the bidimensionality of the cluster formation kinetics. To investigate this problem qualitatively and quantitatively, we numerically solved the birth-death equations for vapor-to-liquid phase transitions. Our previous work showed that the customary saddle point and growth path approximations are almost always valid in steady state gas phase nucleation and only fail if the nucleated solution phase is significantly nonideal. Now, we demonstrate that in its early transient stages, binary nucleation rarely, if ever, occurs via the saddle point. This affects not only the number of particles forming but their composition and may be important for nucleation in glasses and other condensed mixtures for which time scales are very long. Before reaching the state of saddle point nucleation, most binary systems pass through a temporary stage in which the region of maximum flux extends over a ridge on the free energy surface. When ridge crossing nucleation is the steady state solution, it thus arises quite naturally as an arrested intermediate state that normally occurs in the development of saddle point nucleation. While the time dependent and steady state distributions of the fluxes and concentrations for each binary system are strongly influenced by the gas composition and species impingement rates, the ratio of nonequilibrium to equilibrium concentrations has a quasiuniversal behavior that is determined primarily by the thermodynamic properties of the liquid mixture. To test our quantitive results of the transient behavior, we directly calculated the time lag for the saddle point flux and compared it with the available analytical predictions. Although the analytical results overestimate the time lag by factors of 1.2-5, they should be adequate for purposes of planning experiments. We also found that the behavior of the saddle point time lag can indicate when steady state ridge crossing nucleation will occur

  20. Vibration Analysis of Steel-Concrete Composite Box Beams considering Shear Lag and Slip

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Wangbao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate dynamic characteristics of steel-concrete composite box beams, a longitudinal warping function of beam section considering self-balancing of axial forces is established. On the basis of Hamilton principle, governing differential equations of vibration and displacement boundary conditions are deduced by taking into account coupled influencing of shear lag, interface slip, and shear deformation. The proposed method shows an improvement over previous calculations. The central difference method is applied to solve the differential equations to obtain dynamic responses of composite beams subjected to arbitrarily distributed loads. The results from the proposed method are found to be in good agreement with those from ANSYS through numerical studies. Its validity is thus verified and meaningful conclusions for engineering design can be drawn as follows. There are obvious shear lag effects in the top concrete slab and bottom plate of steel beams under dynamic excitation. This shear lag increases with the increasing degree of shear connections. However, it has little impact on the period and deflection amplitude of vibration of composite box beams. The amplitude of deflection and strains in concrete slab reduce as the degree of shear connections increases. Nevertheless, the influence of shear connections on the period of vibration is not distinct.

  1. Exponential lag function projective synchronization of memristor-based multidirectional associative memory neural networks via hybrid control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Manman; Wang, Weiping; Luo, Xiong; Li, Lixiang; Kurths, Jürgen; Wang, Xiao

    2018-03-01

    This paper is concerned with the exponential lag function projective synchronization of memristive multidirectional associative memory neural networks (MMAMNNs). First, we propose a new model of MMAMNNs with mixed time-varying delays. In the proposed approach, the mixed delays include time-varying discrete delays and distributed time delays. Second, we design two kinds of hybrid controllers. Traditional control methods lack the capability of reflecting variable synaptic weights. In this paper, the controllers are carefully designed to confirm the process of different types of synchronization in the MMAMNNs. Third, sufficient criteria guaranteeing the synchronization of system are derived based on the derive-response concept. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is validated with numerical experiments.

  2. Consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vero, S E; Ibrahim, T G; Creamer, R E; Grant, J; Healy, M G; Henry, T; Kramers, G; Richards, K G; Fenton, O

    2014-12-01

    The true efficacy of a programme of agricultural mitigation measures within a catchment to improve water quality can be determined only after a certain hydrologic time lag period (subsequent to implementation) has elapsed. As the biophysical response to policy is not synchronous, accurate estimates of total time lag (unsaturated and saturated) become critical to manage the expectations of policy makers. The estimation of the vertical unsaturated zone component of time lag is vital as it indicates early trends (initial breakthrough), bulk (centre of mass) and total (Exit) travel times. Typically, estimation of time lag through the unsaturated zone is poor, due to the lack of site specific soil physical data, or by assuming saturated conditions. Numerical models (e.g. Hydrus 1D) enable estimates of time lag with varied levels of input data. The current study examines the consequences of varied soil hydraulic and meteorological complexity on unsaturated zone time lag estimates using simulated and actual soil profiles. Results indicated that: greater temporal resolution (from daily to hourly) of meteorological data was more critical as the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil decreased; high clay content soils failed to converge reflecting prevalence of lateral component as a contaminant pathway; elucidation of soil hydraulic properties was influenced by the complexity of soil physical data employed (textural menu, ROSETTA, full and partial soil water characteristic curves), which consequently affected time lag ranges; as the importance of the unsaturated zone increases with respect to total travel times the requirements for high complexity/resolution input data become greater. The methodology presented herein demonstrates that decisions made regarding input data and landscape position will have consequences for the estimated range of vertical travel times. Insufficiencies or inaccuracies regarding such input data can therefore mislead policy makers regarding

  3. Negative-mass lagging cores of the big bang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, B.D.

    1976-01-01

    Examples are given of spherically symmetric cosmological models containing space-sections with the following properties: at large values of the geometrically defined coordinate R, the mass is positive, while at small values of R, the mass is negative. The negative-mass region of spacetime has local properties similar to those of the negative-mass Schwarzschild solution. The big bang in these models is partially spacelike and partially timelike, so the spacetimes do not obey the strong form of the cosmic censorship hypothesis. The timelike, negative-mass segments of the big bang are unlimited sources of electromagnetic and gravitational radiation, and as such may be attractive as ''lagging core'' models of highly energetic astrophysical phenomena

  4. Negative-mass lagging cores of the big bang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, B.D.

    1976-09-01

    Examples are given of spherically symmetric cosmological models containing space-sections with the following properties: at large values of the geometrically defined coordinate R, the mass is positive, while at small values of R, the mass is negative. The negative-mass region of spacetime has local properties similar to those of the negative-mass Schwarzschild solution. The big bang in these models is partially spacelike and partially timelike, so the spacetimes do not obey the strong form of the cosmic censorship hypothesis. The timelike, negative-mass segments of the big bang are unlimited sources of electromagnetic and gravitational radiation, and as such may be attractive as ''lagging core'' models of highly energetic astrophysical phenomena. (AIP)

  5. THE ENERGY DEPENDENCE OF THE CENTROID FREQUENCY AND PHASE LAG OF THE QUASI-PERIODIC OSCILLATIONS IN GRS 1915+105

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu, J. L.; Lu, F. J.; Lu, Y.; Song, L. M.; Zhang, S.; Wang, J. M.; Ding, G. Q.

    2010-01-01

    We present a study of the centroid frequencies and phase lags of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) as functions of photon energy for GRS 1915+105. It is found that the centroid frequencies of the 0.5-10 Hz QPOs and their phase lags are both energy dependent, and there exists an anticorrelation between the QPO frequency and phase lag. These new results challenge the popular QPO models, because none of them can fully explain the observed properties. We suggest that the observed QPO phase lags are partially due to the variation of the QPO frequency with energy, especially for those with frequency higher than 3.5 Hz.

  6. Flap-lag stability data for a small-scale isolated hingeless rotor in forward flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcnulty, Michael J.

    1989-01-01

    An isolated, hingeless rotor with discrete flap and lead-lag flexures and relatively rigid blades was tested in the Aeroflightdynamics Directorate's 7- by 10-Foot Wind Tunnel. The lead-lag stability of a structurally simple rotor configuration in forward flight was determined. The model tested had no cyclic pitch control, and was therefore operated untrimmed at several collective pitch angles, at shaft angles from 0 deg to -20 deg, and at advance ratios as high as 0.55. Two inplane natural frequencies, 0.61/rev and 0.72/rev, were tested for configuration both with and without structural flap lag coupling. Concomitant hover testing of the model was also conducted. Representative plots of the frequency and damping data are presented to show general trends, and complete tabular data and model properties information are included for use in detailed correlation exercises. The most prominent feature of the forward flight data is an abrupt increase in damping with advance ratio at certain high-speed, high shaft-angle conditions, with high flapping loads. The hover data are consistent with previous experimental and theoretical results for hingeless rotors without kinematic couplings. Overall, the data quality is very good and the data are expected to be useful in the development and validation of rotor aeroelastic stability analyses.

  7. Macro- to microscale heat transfer the lagging behavior

    CERN Document Server

    Tzou, D Y

    2014-01-01

    Physical processes taking place in micro/nanoscale strongly depend on the material types and can be very complicated. Known approaches include kinetic theory and quantum mechanics, non-equilibrium and irreversible thermodynamics, molecular dynamics, and/or fractal theory and fraction model. Due to innately different physical bases employed, different approaches may involve different physical properties in describing micro/nanoscale heat transport. In addition, the parameters involved in different approaches, may not be mutually inclusive. Macro- to Microscale Heat Transfer: The Lagging Behav

  8. The lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Chen-Chen; Ji, Shen-Dan; Su, Li-Ling; Li, Sai-Ping; Ren, Fei

    2016-02-01

    The study of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures is of great importance for its wide application in hedging and portfolio investments. Previous works mainly use conventional methods like Granger causality test, GARCH model and error correction model, and focus on the causality relation between the index and futures in a certain period. By using a non-parametric approach-thermal optimal path (TOP) method, we study the lead-lag relationship between China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300), Hang Seng Index (HSI), Standard and Poor 500 (S&P 500) Index and their associated futures to reveal the variance of their relationship over time. Our finding shows evidence of pronounced futures leadership for well established index futures, namely HSI and S&P 500 index futures, while index of developing market like CSI 300 has pronounced leadership. We offer an explanation based on the measure of an indicator which quantifies the differences between spot and futures prices for the surge of lead-lag function. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, which is valuable for the study of market efficiency and its applications.

  9. Stochastic shock response spectrum decomposition method based on probabilistic definitions of temporal peak acceleration, spectral energy, and phase lag distributions of mechanical impact pyrotechnic shock test data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, James Ho-Jin; Duran, Adam

    2016-08-01

    ) simulation. The MC simulation identifies combinations of the PR and decays that can meet the SRS requirement at each band center frequency. Decomposed input time histories are produced by summing the converged damped sinusoids with the MC simulation of the phase lag distribution.

  10. Lagged and instantaneous dynamical influences related to brain structural connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen eAlonso Montes

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary neuroimaging methods can shed light on the basis of human neural and cognitive specializations, with important implications for neuroscience and medicine. Indeed, different MRI acquisitions provide different brain networks at the macroscale; whilst diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI provides a structural connectivity (SC coincident with the bundles of parallel fibers between brain areas, functional MRI (fMRI accounts for the variations in the blood-oxygenation-level-dependent T2* signal, providing functional connectivity (FC. Understanding the precise relation between FC and SC, that is, between brain dynamics and structure, is still a challenge for neuroscience.To investigate this problem, we acquired data at rest and built the corresponding SC (with matrix elements corresponding to the fiber number between brain areas to be compared with FC connectivity matrices obtained by three different methods: directed dependencies by an exploratory version of structural equation modeling (eSEM, linear correlations (C and partial correlations (PC. We also considered the possibility of using lagged correlations in time series; in particular, we compared a lagged version of eSEM and Granger causality (GC. Our results were two-fold: firstly, eSEM performance in correlating with SC was comparable to those obtained from C and PC, but eSEM (not C, nor PC provides information about directionality of the functional interactions. Second, interactions on a time scale much smaller than the sampling time, captured by instantaneous connectivity methods, are much more related to SC than slow directed influences captured by the lagged analysis. Indeed the performance in correlating with SC was much worse for GC and for the lagged version of eSEM. We expect these results to supply further insights to the interplay between SC and functional patterns, an important issue in the study of brain physiology and function.

  11. State-Dependent Resource Harvesting with Lagged Information about System States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred A Johnson

    Full Text Available Markov decision processes (MDPs, which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

  12. State-dependent resource harvesting with lagged information about system states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Fackler, Paul L.; Boomer, G Scott; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.; Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Markov decision processes (MDPs), which involve a temporal sequence of actions conditioned on the state of the managed system, are increasingly being applied in natural resource management. This study focuses on the modification of a traditional MDP to account for those cases in which an action must be chosen after a significant time lag in observing system state, but just prior to a new observation. In order to calculate an optimal decision policy under these conditions, possible actions must be conditioned on the previous observed system state and action taken. We show how to solve these problems when the state transition structure is known and when it is uncertain. Our focus is on the latter case, and we show how actions must be conditioned not only on the previous system state and action, but on the probabilities associated with alternative models of system dynamics. To demonstrate this framework, we calculated and simulated optimal, adaptive policies for MDPs with lagged states for the problem of deciding annual harvest regulations for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the United States. In this particular example, changes in harvest policy induced by the use of lagged information about system state were sufficient to maintain expected management performance (e.g. population size, harvest) even in the face of an uncertain system state at the time of a decision.

  13. Lag-Lead Compensator for Shape Memory Alloy in Gripping Manipulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Made Andik Setiawan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Shape Memory Alloy (SMA is emerging actuator for micro and nano application, on the other hand the developing controller in such area needs much further considerations.This paper is to present the evaluation of close-loop controller responses of the TiNi SMA spring based gripper by introduced lag, lead and lag-lead compensator. A SMA spring has a diameter of 50 mm wire and 350 gram hanging mass. Driving the SMA actuator is used pulse width modulation (PWM signal and responses tested by varying frequencies and duty-cycles. The implemented frequencies in this study are 12, 25, 125, 250 and 1150 Hz. Lab-View and DAQ-Card is used as a controller, interfacer and data recorder of the system. The gripper fabricated consists of two fingers and the total angular displacement of the gripper is 300. The experimental result of the SMA open-loop response are presented and discussed. For advanced application, the close-loop controller is implemented and studied. The close-loop controllers employed are lag, lead and lag-lead compensator. The SMA response indicated that the rise-time and the steady-state error of the cloop-loop are shorter and lower than open-loop controller. The tuning, response and program of the lag, lead and lag-lead compensator are presented and discussed in this paper.

  14. Global exponential stability and lag synchronization for delayed memristive fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural networks with impulses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wengui; Yu, Wenwu; Cao, Jinde; Alsaadi, Fuad E; Hayat, Tasawar

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the stability and lag synchronization for memristor-based fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with mixed delays (asynchronous time delays and continuously distributed delays) and impulses. By applying the inequality analysis technique, homeomorphism theory and some suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, some new sufficient conditions for the uniqueness and global exponential stability of equilibrium point are established. Furthermore, we obtain several sufficient criteria concerning globally exponential lag synchronization for the proposed system based on the framework of Filippov solution, differential inclusion theory and control theory. In addition, some examples with numerical simulations are given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of obtained results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Effects of phase lag on the information rate of a bistable Duffing oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, Edmon; Balachandran, Balakumar

    2015-01-01

    To utilize noise for systems, which are transmitting or receiving information, the information rate is a necessary metric to consider. The phase lag, which is the difference between the sender (applied forcing) and receiver (the oscillator) phases, has a significant effect on the information rate. However, this phase lag is a nonlinear function of the noise level. Here, the effects of phase lag on the information rate for a Duffing oscillator are examined and comparative discussions are made with phase lag from linear response theory. The phase lag is shown to be an important variable in calculating the information rate. - Highlights: • Simulations and Fokker–Planck analysis for Duffing oscillator response are performed. • The phase lag is found to be a nonlinear function of the noise level. • The phase lag is shown to be important for calculating the information rate metric

  16. Effects of phase lag on the information rate of a bistable Duffing oscillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perkins, Edmon, E-mail: edmon@umd.edu; Balachandran, Balakumar, E-mail: balab@umd.edu

    2015-02-06

    To utilize noise for systems, which are transmitting or receiving information, the information rate is a necessary metric to consider. The phase lag, which is the difference between the sender (applied forcing) and receiver (the oscillator) phases, has a significant effect on the information rate. However, this phase lag is a nonlinear function of the noise level. Here, the effects of phase lag on the information rate for a Duffing oscillator are examined and comparative discussions are made with phase lag from linear response theory. The phase lag is shown to be an important variable in calculating the information rate. - Highlights: • Simulations and Fokker–Planck analysis for Duffing oscillator response are performed. • The phase lag is found to be a nonlinear function of the noise level. • The phase lag is shown to be important for calculating the information rate metric.

  17. Topics in High-Energy Astrophysics: X-ray Time Lags and Gamma-ray Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroon, John J.

    2016-03-01

    The Universe is host to a wide variety of high-energy processes that convert gravitational potential energy or rest-mass energy into non-thermal radiation such as bremsstrahlung and synchrotron. Prevailing models of X-ray emission from accreting Black Hole Binaries (BHBs) struggle to simultaneously fit the quiescent X-ray spectrum and the transients which result in the phenomenon known as X-ray time lags. And similarly, classical models of diffusive shock acceleration in pulsar wind nebulae fail to explain the extreme particle acceleration in very short timescales as is inferred from recent gamma-ray flares from the Crab nebula. In this dissertation, I develop new exact analytic models to shed light on these intriguing processes. I take a fresh look at the formation of X-ray time lags in compact sources using a new mathematical approach in which I obtain the exact Green's function solution. The resulting Green's function allows one to explore a variety of injection scenarios, including both monochromatic and broadband (bremsstrahlung) seed photon injection. I obtain the exact solution for the dependence of the time lags on the Fourier frequency, for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous clouds. The model can successfully reproduce both the observed time lags and the quiescent X-ray spectrum using a single set of coronal parameters. I show that the implied coronal radii in the new model are significantly smaller than those obtained in the Monte Carlo simulations, hence greatly reducing the coronal heating problem. Recent bright gamma-ray flares from the Crab nebula observed by AGILE and Fermi reaching GeV energies and lasting several days challenge the contemporary model for particle acceleration in pulsar wind nebulae, specifically the diffusive shock acceleration model. Simulations indicate electron/positron pairs in the Crab nebula pulsar wind must be accelerated up to PeV energies in the presence of ambient magnetic fields with strength B ~100 microG. No

  18. Dynamic shear-lag model for understanding the role of matrix in energy dissipation in fiber-reinforced composites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junjie; Zhu, Wenqing; Yu, Zhongliang; Wei, Xiaoding

    2018-07-01

    Lightweight and high impact performance composite design is a big challenge for scientists and engineers. Inspired from well-known biological materials, e.g., the bones, spider silk, and claws of mantis shrimp, artificial composites have been synthesized for engineering applications. Presently, the design of ballistic resistant composites mainly emphasizes the utilization of light and high-strength fibers, whereas the contribution from matrix materials receives less attention. However, recent ballistic experiments on fiber-reinforced composites challenge our common sense. The use of matrix with "low-grade" properties enhances effectively the impact performance. In this study, we establish a dynamic shear-lag model to explore the energy dissipation through viscous matrix materials in fiber-reinforced composites and the associations of energy dissipation characteristics with the properties and geometries of constituents. The model suggests that an enhancement in energy dissipation before the material integrity is lost can be achieved by tuning the shear modulus and viscosity of a matrix. Furthermore, our model implies that an appropriately designed staggered microstructure, adopted by many natural composites, can repeatedly activate the energy dissipation process and thus improve dramatically the impact performance. This model demonstrates the role of matrix in energy dissipation, and stimulates new advanced material design concepts for ballistic applications. Biological composites found in nature often possess exceptional mechanical properties that man-made materials haven't be able to achieve. For example, it is predicted that a pencil thick spider silk thread can stop a flying Boeing airplane. Here, by proposing a dynamic shear-lag model, we investigate the relationships between the impact performance of a composite with the dimensions and properties of its constituents. Our analysis suggests that the impact performance of fiber-reinforced composites could improve

  19. The Flash-Lag Effect as a Motion-Based Predictive Shift.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mina A Khoei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to its inherent neural delays, the visual system has an outdated access to sensory information about the current position of moving objects. In contrast, living organisms are remarkably able to track and intercept moving objects under a large range of challenging environmental conditions. Physiological, behavioral and psychophysical evidences strongly suggest that position coding is extrapolated using an explicit and reliable representation of object's motion but it is still unclear how these two representations interact. For instance, the so-called flash-lag effect supports the idea of a differential processing of position between moving and static objects. Although elucidating such mechanisms is crucial in our understanding of the dynamics of visual processing, a theory is still missing to explain the different facets of this visual illusion. Here, we reconsider several of the key aspects of the flash-lag effect in order to explore the role of motion upon neural coding of objects' position. First, we formalize the problem using a Bayesian modeling framework which includes a graded representation of the degree of belief about visual motion. We introduce a motion-based prediction model as a candidate explanation for the perception of coherent motion. By including the knowledge of a fixed delay, we can model the dynamics of sensory information integration by extrapolating the information acquired at previous instants in time. Next, we simulate the optimal estimation of object position with and without delay compensation and compared it with human perception under a broad range of different psychophysical conditions. Our computational study suggests that the explicit, probabilistic representation of velocity information is crucial in explaining position coding, and therefore the flash-lag effect. We discuss these theoretical results in light of the putative corrective mechanisms that can be used to cancel out the detrimental effects of neural

  20. Evaluation of the interfacial shear strength and residual stress of TiAlN coating on ZIRLO™ fuel cladding using a modified shear-lag model approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Y., E-mail: troy.liu@manchester.ac.uk [Materials Performance Centre, School of Materials, The University of Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Bhamji, I., E-mail: imran.bhamji@manchester.ac.uk [Materials Performance Centre, School of Materials, The University of Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Withers, P.J., E-mail: p.j.withers@manchester.ac.uk [Materials Performance Centre, School of Materials, The University of Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Wolfe, D.E., E-mail: dew125@arl.psu.edu [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State College, PA 16801 (United States); Motta, A.T., E-mail: atmnuc@engr.psu.edu [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State College, PA 16801 (United States); Preuss, M., E-mail: michael.preuss@manchester.ac.uk [Materials Performance Centre, School of Materials, The University of Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2015-11-15

    This paper investigates the residual stresses and interfacial shear strength of a TiAlN coating on Zr–Nb–Sn–Fe alloy (ZIRLO™) substrate designed to improve corrosion resistance of fuel cladding used in water-cooled nuclear reactors, both during normal and exceptional conditions, e.g. a loss of coolant event (LOCA). The distribution and maximum value of the interfacial shear strength has been estimated using a modified shear-lag model. The parameters critical to this analysis were determined experimentally. From these input parameters the interfacial shear strength between the TiAlN coating and ZIRLO™ substrate was inferred to be around 120 MPa. It is worth noting that the apparent strength of the coating is high (∼3.4 GPa). However, this is predominantly due to the large compressive residuals stress (3 GPa in compression), which must be overcome for the coating to fail in tension, which happens at a load just 150 MPa in excess of this.

  1. A Race Against Time: Time Lags in Terrestrial-Aquatic Linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, N. B.

    2017-12-01

    Unprecedented decreases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition together with increases in agricultural N-use efficiency have led to decreases in net anthropogenic N inputs in many eastern U.S. and Canadian watersheds as well as in Europe. Despite such decreases, N concentrations in streams and rivers continue to increase, and problems of coastal eutrophication remain acute. Such a mismatch between N inputs and outputs can arise due to legacy N accumulation and subsequent lag times between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. In the present study, we quantified such lag times by pairing long-term N input trajectories with stream N concentration data in multiple watersheds in North America. Results show significant nonlinearity between N inputs and outputs, with a strong hysteresis effect indicative of decadal-scale lag times. Lag times were found to be negatively correlated with both tile drainage and watershed slope, with tile drainage being a dominant control in fall and watershed slope being significant during the spring snowmelt period. Quantification of such lags will be crucial to policy-makers as they struggle to set appropriate goals for water quality improvement in human-impacted watersheds.

  2. Two-dimensional pixel image lag simulation and optimization in a 4-T CMOS image sensor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Junting; Li Binqiao; Yu Pingping; Xu Jiangtao [School of Electronics Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Mou Cun, E-mail: xujiangtao@tju.edu.c [Logistics Management Office, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300130 (China)

    2010-09-15

    Pixel image lag in a 4-T CMOS image sensor is analyzed and simulated in a two-dimensional model. Strategies of reducing image lag are discussed from transfer gate channel threshold voltage doping adjustment, PPD N-type doping dose/implant tilt adjustment and transfer gate operation voltage adjustment for signal electron transfer. With the computer analysis tool ISE-TCAD, simulation results show that minimum image lag can be obtained at a pinned photodiode n-type doping dose of 7.0 x 10{sup 12} cm{sup -2}, an implant tilt of -2{sup 0}, a transfer gate channel doping dose of 3.0 x 10{sup 12} cm{sup -2} and an operation voltage of 3.4 V. The conclusions of this theoretical analysis can be a guideline for pixel design to improve the performance of 4-T CMOS image sensors. (semiconductor devices)

  3. NuSTAR detection of 4s Hard X-ray Lags from the Accreting Pulsar GS 0834-430

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bachetti, Matteo; Miyasaka, Hiromasa; Harrison, Fiona

    2014-01-01

    is consistent with that observed in many other magnetized accreting pulsars. We fail to detect cyclotron resonance scattering features in either phase-averaged nor phase-resolved spectra that would allow us to constrain the pulsar’s magnetic field. We detect a pulse period of ∼ 12.29 s in all energy bands....... The pulse profile can be modeled with a double Gaussian and shows a strong and smooth hard lag of up to 0.3 cycles in phase, or about 4s between the pulse at ∼ 3 and >∼ 30 keV. This is the first report of such a strong lag in high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) pulsars. Previously reported lags have been...

  4. Shear-lag effect and its effect on the design of high-rise buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dat Bui Thanh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available For super high-rise buildings, the analysis and selection of suitable structural solutions are very important. The structure has not only to carry the gravity loads (self-weight, live load, etc., but also to resist lateral loads (wind and earthquake loads. As the buildings become taller, the demand on different structural systems dramatically increases. The article considers the division of the structural systems of tall buildings into two main categories - interior structures for which the major part of the lateral load resisting system is located within the interior of the building, and exterior structures for which the major part of the lateral load resisting system is located at the building perimeter. The basic types of each of the main structural categories are described. In particular, the framed tube structures, which belong to the second main category of exterior structures, seem to be very efficient. That type of structure system allows tall buildings resist the lateral loads. However, those tube systems are affected by shear lag effect - a nonlinear distribution of stresses across the sides of the section, which is commonly found in box girders under lateral loads. Based on a numerical example, some general conclusions for the influence of the shear-lag effect on frequencies, periods, distribution and variation of the magnitude of the internal forces in the structure are presented.

  5. Shear-lag effect and its effect on the design of high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanh Dat, Bui; Traykov, Alexander; Traykova, Marina

    2018-03-01

    For super high-rise buildings, the analysis and selection of suitable structural solutions are very important. The structure has not only to carry the gravity loads (self-weight, live load, etc.), but also to resist lateral loads (wind and earthquake loads). As the buildings become taller, the demand on different structural systems dramatically increases. The article considers the division of the structural systems of tall buildings into two main categories - interior structures for which the major part of the lateral load resisting system is located within the interior of the building, and exterior structures for which the major part of the lateral load resisting system is located at the building perimeter. The basic types of each of the main structural categories are described. In particular, the framed tube structures, which belong to the second main category of exterior structures, seem to be very efficient. That type of structure system allows tall buildings resist the lateral loads. However, those tube systems are affected by shear lag effect - a nonlinear distribution of stresses across the sides of the section, which is commonly found in box girders under lateral loads. Based on a numerical example, some general conclusions for the influence of the shear-lag effect on frequencies, periods, distribution and variation of the magnitude of the internal forces in the structure are presented.

  6. A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin H. Letcher

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model identifies the yearly period when air and water temperature are synchronized, accommodates hysteresis, incorporates time lags, deals with missing data and autocorrelation and can include external drivers. In a small stream network, the model performed well (RMSE = 0.59°C, identified a clear warming trend (0.63 °C decade−1 and a widening of the synchronized period (29 d decade−1. We also carefully evaluated how missing data influenced predictions. Missing data within a year had a small effect on performance (∼0.05% average drop in RMSE with 10% fewer days with data. Missing all data for a year decreased performance (∼0.6 °C jump in RMSE, but this decrease was moderated when data were available from other streams in the network.

  7. Application of Time Series Analysis in Determination of Lag Time in Jahanbin Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seied Yahya Mirzaee

    2005-11-01

        One of the important issues that have significant role in study of hydrology of basin is determination of lag time. Lag time has significant role in hydrological studies. Quantity of rainfall related lag time depends on several factors, such as permeability, vegetation cover, catchments slope, rainfall intensity, storm duration and type of rain. Determination of lag time is important parameter in many projects such as dam design and also water resource studies. Lag time of basin could be calculated using various methods. One of these methods is time series analysis of spectral density. The analysis is based on fouries series. The time series is approximated with Sinuous and Cosines functions. In this method harmonically significant quantities with individual frequencies are presented. Spectral density under multiple time series could be used to obtain basin lag time for annual runoff and short-term rainfall fluctuation. A long lag time could be due to snowmelt as well as melting ice due to rainfalls in freezing days. In this research the lag time of Jahanbin basin has been determined using spectral density method. The catchments is subjected to both rainfall and snowfall. For short term rainfall fluctuation with a return period  2, 3, 4 months, the lag times were found 0.18, 0.5 and 0.083 month, respectively.

  8. Stabilized NADH as a Countermeasure for Jet Lag

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Gary G.; Viirre, Erik; Clark, Jonathan

    2001-01-01

    Current remedies for jet lag (phototherapy, melatonin, stimulant, and sedative medications) are limited in efficacy and practicality. The efficacy of a stabilized, sublingual form of reduced nicotin amide adenine dinucleotide (NADH, ENADAlert, Menuco Corp.) as a countermeasure for jet lag was examined. Because NADH increases cellular production of ATP and facilitates dopamine synthesis, it may counteract the effects of jet lag on cognitive functioning and sleepiness. Thirty-five healthy, employed subjects participated in this double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Training and baseline testing were conducted on the West Coast before subjects flew overnight to the East Coast, where they would experience a 3-hour time difference. Upon arrival, individuals were randomly assigned to receive either 20 mg of sublingual stabilized ADH (n=18) or identical placebo tablets (n=17). All participants completed computer-administered tests (including CogScreen7) to assess changes in cognitive functioning, mood, and sleepiness in the morning and afternoon. Jet lag resulted in increased sleepiness for over half the participants and deterioration of cognitive functioning for approximately one third. The morning following the flight, subjects experienced lapses of attention in addition to disruptions in working memory, divided attention, and visual perceptual speed. Individuals who received NADH performed significantly better on 5 of 8 cognitive and psychomotor test measures (P less than or equal to 0.5) and showed a trend for better performance on the other three measures (P less than or equal to .l0). Subjects also reported less sleepiness compared with those who received placebo. No adverse effects were observed with NADH treatment. Stabilized NADH significantly reduced jet lag-induced disruptions of cognitive functioning, was easily administered, and was found to have no adverse side effects.

  9. Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

    2009-08-01

    This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

  10. Effective Iterated Greedy Algorithm for Flow-Shop Scheduling Problems with Time lags

    Science.gov (United States)

    ZHAO, Ning; YE, Song; LI, Kaidian; CHEN, Siyu

    2017-05-01

    Flow shop scheduling problem with time lags is a practical scheduling problem and attracts many studies. Permutation problem(PFSP with time lags) is concentrated but non-permutation problem(non-PFSP with time lags) seems to be neglected. With the aim to minimize the makespan and satisfy time lag constraints, efficient algorithms corresponding to PFSP and non-PFSP problems are proposed, which consist of iterated greedy algorithm for permutation(IGTLP) and iterated greedy algorithm for non-permutation (IGTLNP). The proposed algorithms are verified using well-known simple and complex instances of permutation and non-permutation problems with various time lag ranges. The permutation results indicate that the proposed IGTLP can reach near optimal solution within nearly 11% computational time of traditional GA approach. The non-permutation results indicate that the proposed IG can reach nearly same solution within less than 1% computational time compared with traditional GA approach. The proposed research combines PFSP and non-PFSP together with minimal and maximal time lag consideration, which provides an interesting viewpoint for industrial implementation.

  11. Board of director characteristics and audit report lag: Australian evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harjinder Singh

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether board of director’s independence, financial expertise, gender, corporate governance experience and diligence impact the audit report lag exhibited by Australian publicly listed firms. Using a pooled sample of 500 firm-year observations obtained from the Australian Securities Exchange for the period 2004 to 2008, this study finds evidence that board member independence, board member financial expertise and, to a lesser extent, board member corporate governance experience are the most significant predictors associated with shorter/reduced audit report lag. Main findings are robust to alternative measures of audit report lag, board characteristics and control variables. Findings from this study clearly imply that boards play a substantial role in reducing audit report lag. Results imply that legislative and regulatory requirements, both in Australian and overseas, stipulating board member independence and financial expertise requirements are effective in improving the integrity of financial reporting, a key component of which is timeliness of financial reporting (encapsulated by audit report lag. In addition, an additional board characteristic that regulators should consider promoting among firms is board member corporate governance experience. Results from this study, therefore, have clear implications not only for regulators but also for key stakeholders such shareholders and management.

  12. Precipitation effects on microbial pollution in a river: lag structures and seasonal effect modification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Tornevi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for 0.7 million swedes. The river is subject to contamination from sewer systems discharge and runoff from agricultural lands. Climate models projects an increase in precipitation and heavy rainfall in this region. This study aimed to determine how daily rainfall causes variation in indicators of pathogen loads, to increase knowledge of variations in river water quality and discuss implications for risk management. METHODS: Data covering 7 years of daily monitoring of river water turbidity and concentrations of E. coli, Clostridium and coliforms were obtained, and their short-term variations in relation with precipitation were analyzed with time series regression and non-linear distributed lag models. We studied how precipitation effects varied with season and compared different weather stations for predictive ability. RESULTS: Generally, the lowest raw water quality occurs 2 days after rainfall, with poor raw water quality continuing for several more days. A rainfall event of >15 mm/24-h (local 95 percentile was associated with a three-fold higher concentration of E. coli and 30% higher turbidity levels (lag 2. Rainfall was associated with exponential increases in concentrations of indicator bacteria while the effect on turbidity attenuated with very heavy rainfall. Clear associations were also observed between consecutive days of wet weather and decreased water quality. The precipitation effect on increased levels of indicator bacteria was significant in all seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Rainfall elevates microbial risks year-round in this river and freshwater source and acts as the main driver of varying water quality. Heavy rainfall appears to be a better predictor of fecal pollution than water turbidity. An increase of wet weather and extreme events with climate change will lower river water quality even more, indicating greater challenges for drinking water producers, and suggesting better

  13. Spectral Lag Evolution among γ-Ray Burst Pulses Lan-Wei Jia1 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    pulses with observations by CGRO/BATSE. No universal spectral lag evolution feature and pulse luminosity-lag relation within a GRB is observed. ... Key words. γ-rays: bursts—spectral lag—GRB pulse. 1. Introduction. It is found that soft photons lag behind the hard photons and is usually seen in long. GRBs (e.g., Norris et ...

  14. Social jet-lag potentiates obesity and metabolic syndrome when combined with cafeteria diet in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espitia-Bautista, Estefania; Velasco-Ramos, Mario; Osnaya-Ramírez, Iván; Ángeles-Castellanos, Manuel; Buijs, Ruud M; Escobar, Carolina

    2017-07-01

    Modern lifestyle promotes shifted sleep onset and shifted wake up time between weekdays and weekends, producing a condition termed "social-jet lag." Disrupted sleep promotes increased appetite for carbohydrate and fat-rich food, which in long term leads to overweight, obesity and metabolic syndrome. In order to mimic the human situation we produced an experimental model of social-jet lag (Sj-l). With this model, we explored the link between shifted sleep time with consumption of a cafeteria diet (CafD) and the development of obesity and metabolic syndrome. The first experiment was designed to create and confirm the model of Sj-l. Rats (n=8-10/group) were exposed to a shifted sleep time protocol achieved by placing the rats in slow rotating wheels from Monday to Friday during the first 4h of the light period, while on weekends they were left undisturbed. The second experiment (n=8-12/group) explored the combined effect of Sj-l with the opportunity to ingest CafD. All protocols lasted 12weeks. We evaluated the development of overweight and indicators of metabolic syndrome. The statistical significance for all variables was set at Pdislipidemia. Present data provide an experimental model of social-jet lag that combined with overconsumption of CafD, and maximized the development of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Importantly, access to CafD during the night did not lead to overweight nor metabolic syndrome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A SOFT X-RAY REVERBERATION LAG IN THE AGN ESO 113–G010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cackett, E. M.; Fabian, A. C.; Kara, E.; Zogbhi, A.; Reynolds, C.; Uttley, P.

    2013-01-01

    Reverberation lags have recently been discovered in a handful of nearby, variable active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Here, we analyze a ∼100 ks archival XMM-Newton observation of the highly variable AGN, ESO 113–G010, in order to search for lags between hard, 1.5-4.5 keV, and soft, 0.3-0.9 keV, energy X-ray bands. At the lowest frequencies available in the light curve (∼ –4 Hz), we find hard lags where the power-law-dominated hard band lags the soft band (where the reflection fraction is high). However, at higher frequencies in the range (2-3) × 10 –4 Hz we find a soft lag of –325 ± 89 s. The general evolution from hard to soft lags as the frequency increases is similar to other AGNs where soft lags have been detected. We interpret this soft lag as due to reverberation from the accretion disk, with the reflection component responding to variability from the X-ray corona. For a black hole mass of 7 × 10 6 M ☉ this corresponds to a light-crossing time of ∼9 R g /c; however, dilution effects mean that the intrinsic lag is likely longer than this. Based on recent black hole mass scaling for lag properties, the lag amplitude and frequency are more consistent with a black hole a few times more massive than the best estimates, though flux-dependent effects could easily add scatter this large.

  16. Information-theoretic approach to lead-lag effect on financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedor, Paweł

    2014-08-01

    Recently the interest of researchers has shifted from the analysis of synchronous relationships of financial instruments to the analysis of more meaningful asynchronous relationships. Both types of analysis are concentrated mostly on Pearson's correlation coefficient and consequently intraday lead-lag relationships (where one of the variables in a pair is time-lagged) are also associated with them. Under the Efficient-Market Hypothesis such relationships are not possible as all information is embedded in the prices, but in real markets we find such dependencies. In this paper we analyse lead-lag relationships of financial instruments and extend known methodology by using mutual information instead of Pearson's correlation coefficient. Mutual information is not only a more general measure, sensitive to non-linear dependencies, but also can lead to a simpler procedure of statistical validation of links between financial instruments. We analyse lagged relationships using New York Stock Exchange 100 data not only on an intraday level, but also for daily stock returns, which have usually been ignored.

  17. Lag and ghosting in a clinical flat-panel selenium digital mammography system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloomquist, Aili K.; Yaffe, Martin J.; Mawdsley, Gordon E.; Hunter, David M.; Beideck, Daniel J.

    2006-01-01

    We present measurements of lag and ghosting in a FDA-approved digital mammography system that uses a dielectric/selenium based detector structure. Lag is the carryover of signal from a previous image, whereas ghosting is the reduction of sensitivity caused by previous exposure history of the detector. Data from six selenium units were acquired. For the type of selenium detector tested, and under typical clinical usage conditions, the lag was as high as 0.15% of source signal and the ghosting could be as high as 15%. The amount of lag and ghosting varied from unit to unit. Results were compared with data acquired on a phosphor-based full-field digital mammography system. Modifications in the technology of the selenium detectors appear to have resulted in a marked decrease in both lag and ghosting effects in more recent systems

  18. Hierarchical species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

  19. on the performance of Autoregressive Moving Average Polynomial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Timothy Ademakinwa

    Distributed Lag (PDL) model, Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag ... Moving Average Polynomial Distributed Lag (ARMAPDL) model. ..... Global Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 1. ... Business and Economic Research Center.

  20. Clinical introduction of image lag correction for a cone beam CT system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankovic, Uros; Ploeger, Lennert S.; Sonke, Jan-Jakob; Herk, Marcel van

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Image lag in the flat-panel detector used for Linac integrated cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) has a degrading effect on CBCT image quality. The most prominent visible artifact is the presence of bright semicircular structure in the transverse view of the scans, known also as radar artifact. Several correction strategies have been proposed, but until now the clinical introduction of such corrections remains unreported. In November 2013, the authors have clinically implemented a previously proposed image lag correction on all of their machines at their main site in Amsterdam. The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the effect of the correction on the quality of CBCT images and evaluate the required calibration frequency. Methods: Image lag was measured in five clinical CBCT systems (Elekta Synergy 4.6) using an in-house developed beam interrupting device that stops the x-ray beam midway through the data acquisition of an unattenuated beam for calibration. A triple exponential falling edge response was fitted to the measured data and used to correct image lag from projection images with an infinite response. This filter, including an extrapolation for saturated pixels, was incorporated in the authors’ in-house developed clinical CBCT reconstruction software. To investigate the short-term stability of the lag and associated parameters, a series of five image lag measurement over a period of three months was performed. For quantitative analysis, the authors have retrospectively selected ten patients treated in the pelvic region. The apparent contrast was quantified in polar coordinates for scans reconstructed using the parameters obtained from different dates with and without saturation handling. Results: Visually, the radar artifact was minimal in scans reconstructed using image lag correction especially when saturation handling was used. In patient imaging, there was a significant reduction of the apparent contrast from 43 ± 16.7 to

  1. Clinical introduction of image lag correction for a cone beam CT system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankovic, Uros; Ploeger, Lennert S; Sonke, Jan-Jakob; van Herk, Marcel

    2016-03-01

    Image lag in the flat-panel detector used for Linac integrated cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) has a degrading effect on CBCT image quality. The most prominent visible artifact is the presence of bright semicircular structure in the transverse view of the scans, known also as radar artifact. Several correction strategies have been proposed, but until now the clinical introduction of such corrections remains unreported. In November 2013, the authors have clinically implemented a previously proposed image lag correction on all of their machines at their main site in Amsterdam. The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the effect of the correction on the quality of CBCT images and evaluate the required calibration frequency. Image lag was measured in five clinical CBCT systems (Elekta Synergy 4.6) using an in-house developed beam interrupting device that stops the x-ray beam midway through the data acquisition of an unattenuated beam for calibration. A triple exponential falling edge response was fitted to the measured data and used to correct image lag from projection images with an infinite response. This filter, including an extrapolation for saturated pixels, was incorporated in the authors' in-house developed clinical cbct reconstruction software. To investigate the short-term stability of the lag and associated parameters, a series of five image lag measurement over a period of three months was performed. For quantitative analysis, the authors have retrospectively selected ten patients treated in the pelvic region. The apparent contrast was quantified in polar coordinates for scans reconstructed using the parameters obtained from different dates with and without saturation handling. Visually, the radar artifact was minimal in scans reconstructed using image lag correction especially when saturation handling was used. In patient imaging, there was a significant reduction of the apparent contrast from 43 ± 16.7 to 15.5 ± 11.9 HU without the

  2. Child Behavior and Sibling Relationship Quality: A Cross-Lagged Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pike, Alison; Oliver, Bonamy R.

    2016-01-01

    Bidirectional associations between sibling relationships and children’s problem behaviors are robust, and links with prosocial behavior have also been reported. Using cross-lagged models, we were able to conservatively test temporal directions of links between positive and negative aspects of sibling relationships and children’s prosocial behavior and conduct problems across a 3-year time span in middle childhood. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; http://www.bristol...

  3. X-linked Acrogigantism (X-LAG) Syndrome: Clinical Profile and Therapeutic Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Beckers, Albert; Lodish, Maya Beth; Trivellin, Giampaolo; Rostomyan, Liliya; Lee, Misu; Faucz, Fabio R; Yuan, Bo; Choong, Catherine S; Caberg, Jean-Hubert; Verrua, Elisa; Naves, Luciana Ansaneli; Cheetham, Tim D; Young, Jacques; Lysy, Philippe A; Petrossians, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    X-linked acro-gigantism (X-LAG) is a new syndrome of pituitary gigantism, caused by microduplications on chromosome Xq26.3, encompassing the gene GPR101, which is highly upregulated in pituitary tumors. We conducted this study to explore the clinical, radiological and hormonal phenotype and responses to therapy in patients with X-LAG syndrome. The study included 18 patients (13 sporadic) with X-LAG and a microduplication in chromosome Xq26.3. All sporadic cases had unique duplications and the...

  4. Pell-Sim - dynamic model for forecasting storage and distribution of wood pellets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinterbaeck, Johan

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the system of wood pellet distribution to residential consumers. The distribution cost for a residential pellet consumer typically represents 30% of the per tonne price and of this share, the inventory cost could be more than 50%. Important administrative activities in physical distribution are forecasting demand and inventory control. One way to improve distribution systems would be to optimise inventory management for pellet distributors. The aim of this study was to propose improvements in pellet distribution management by using tools from systems analysis. The ultimate goal was to present an optimised storage level curve adapted to the mid-Swedish community of Avesta. An internal model for optimising inventory management, Pell-Sim, was constructed, composed of two integrated parts: a simulation unit to forecast residential wood pellet demand and a spreadsheet unit with inventory-related functions. Daily outdoor temperatures basically regulated the simulation unit. An order point system was chosen for reordering. The residential customers of a distribution company were divided into two groups, delivery and collecting customers, which were statistically treated separately. When collecting and delivery customer input inventories were normally distributed in the intervals from 0 to 3500 kg and 6500 kg, respectively, their annual means of total delivery were both about 7000 kg/customer, which was the desired and empirical level. The expected pellet customer orders were negatively correlated to mean daily temperatures, lagging behind about 1 month. Sensitivity analyses showed that monthly results for ordered quantity and total cost were particularly sensitive to ordering and carrying costs. The Pell-Sim programme can easily be adapted for distributors in other geographical regions. (Author)

  5. Pell-Sim - dynamic model for forecasting storage and distribution of wood pellets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinterbaeck, Johan [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Dept. of Forest Management and Products, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    This study examined the system of wood pellet distribution to residential consumers. The distribution cost for a residential pellet consumer typically represents 30% of the per tonne price and of this share, the inventory cost could be more than 50%. Important administrative activities in physical distribution are forecasting demand and inventory control. One way to improve distribution systems would be to optimise inventory management for pellet distributors. The aim of this study was to propose improvements in pellet distribution management by using tools from systems analysis. The ultimate goal was to present an optimised storage level curve adapted to the mid-Swedish community of Avesta. An internal model for optimising inventory management, Pell-Sim, was constructed, composed of two integrated parts: a simulation unit to forecast residential wood pellet demand and a spreadsheet unit with inventory-related functions. Daily outdoor temperatures basically regulated the simulation unit. An order point system was chosen for reordering. The residential customers of a distribution company were divided into two groups, delivery and collecting customers, which were statistically treated separately. When collecting and delivery customer input inventories were normally distributed in the intervals from 0 to 3500 kg and 6500 kg, respectively, their annual means of total delivery were both about 7000 kg/customer, which was the desired and empirical level. The expected pellet customer orders were negatively correlated to mean daily temperatures, lagging behind about 1 month. Sensitivity analyses showed that monthly results for ordered quantity and total cost were particularly sensitive to ordering and carrying costs. The Pell-Sim programme can easily be adapted for distributors in other geographical regions. (Author)

  6. Cross-lagged relationships between morphological awareness and reading comprehension among Chinese children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahua Cheng

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study examined the developmental relationship between morphological awareness and reading comprehension using a two-year and four-wave cross-lagged design with a sample of 149 Chinese children (80 male and 69 female. We measured children’s morphological awareness, word reading, and reading comprehension from T1 to T4, in addition to phonological awareness, vocabulary knowledge, and general cognitive ability at T1 as control measures. Four plausible cross-lagged models were assessed and compared to examine the direction of the developmental relationships between morphological awareness and reading comprehension over time. Results found support for a reciprocal-causation model, that is, morphological awareness stably predicted subsequent reading comprehension, and the reverse relation was also found. Longitudinal mediation analyses revealed that word reading partially mediated the relationship between morphological awareness and reading comprehension in Chinese children. These findings extend our understanding of the relationship between morphological awareness and reading comprehension. The practical implications for these two developing skills in Chinese children are discussed.

  7. Cross-lagged relationships between workplace demands, control, support, and sleep problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Linda L Magnusson; Åkerstedt, Torbjörn; Näswall, Katharina; Leineweber, Constanze; Theorell, Töres; Westerlund, Hugo

    2011-10-01

    Sleep problems are experienced by a large part of the population. Work characteristics are potential determinants, but limited longitudinal evidence is available to date, and reverse causation is a plausible alternative. This study examines longitudinal, bidirectional relationships between work characteristics and sleep problems. Prospective cohort/two-wave panel. Sweden. 3065 working men and women approximately representative of the Swedish workforce who responded to the 2006 and 2008 waves of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH). N/A. Bidirectional relationships between, on the one hand, workplace demands, decision authority, and support, and, on the other hand, sleep disturbances (reflecting lack of sleep continuity) and awakening problems (reflecting feelings of being insufficiently restored), were investigated by structural equation modeling. All factors were modeled as latent variables and adjusted for gender, age, marital status, education, alcohol consumption, and job change. Concerning sleep disturbances, the best fitting models were the "forward" causal model for demands and the "reverse" causal model for support. Regarding awakening problems, reciprocal models fitted the data best. Cross-lagged analyses indicates a weak relationship between demands at Time 1 and sleep disturbances at Time 2, a "reverse" relationship from support T1 to sleep disturbances T2, and bidirectional associations between work characteristics and awakening problems. In contrast to an earlier study on demands, control, sleep quality, and fatigue, this study suggests reverse and reciprocal in addition to the commonly hypothesized causal relationships between work characteristics and sleep problems based on a 2-year time lag.

  8. sLORETA intracortical lagged coherence during breath counting in meditation-naïve participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia eMilz

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated brain functional connectivity comparing no-task resting to breath counting (a meditation exercise but given as task without referring to meditation. Functional connectivity computed as EEG coherence between head-surface data suffers from localization ambiguity, reference dependence, and overestimation due to volume conduction. Lagged coherence between intracortical model sources addresses these criticisms. With this analysis approach, experienced meditators reportedly showed reduced coherence during meditation, meditation-naïve participants have not yet been investigated. 58-channel EEG from 23 healthy, right-handed, meditation-naïve males during resting [3 runs] and breath counting [2 runs] was computed into sLORETA time series of intracortical electrical activity in 19 regions of interest corresponding to the cortex underlying 19 scalp electrode sites, for each of the 8 independent EEG frequency bands covering 1.5-44 Hz. Intracortical lagged coherences and head-surface conventional coherences were computed between the 19 regions/sites. During breath counting compared to resting, paired t-tests corrected for multiple testing revealed 4 significantly lower intracortical lagged coherences, but 4 significantly higher head-surface conventional coherences. Lowered intracortical lagged coherences involved left BA 10 and right BAs 3, 10, 17, 40. In conclusion, intracortical lagged coherence can yield results that are inverted to those of head-surface conventional coherence. The lowered functional connectivity between cognitive control areas and sensory perception areas during meditation-type breath counting compared to resting conceivably reflects the attention to a bodily percept without cognitive reasoning. The reductions in functional connectivity were similar but not as widespread as the reductions reported during meditation in experienced meditators.

  9. The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hussainy, F.M.

    1995-08-01

    This paper presented the relationship between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  10. Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

    2017-07-01

    Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

  11. Relationships among abilities in elderly adults: a time lag analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayslip, B; Brookshire, R G

    1985-11-01

    Previous research has suggested that relationships among primary abilities said to measure crystallized (Gc) and fluid (Gf) intelligences remain the same across cohorts if age is held constant, despite generational changes in the levels of abilities. The present study assessed differences in relationship among several components of Gf/Gc in two independent samples of elderly adults, tested in 1975 and 1979 by the same investigator. The 1975 sample consisted of 54 elderly adults aged 59 to 76 years (M = 67.7); the 1979 sample of 50 elderly adults was aged 55 to 82 (M = 69.4). Time-lagged differences in relationships among abilities measuring Gf and Gc (induction, figural relations, and verbal comprehension) were investigated using confirmatory factor analytic procedures. Although a two factor (Gf, Gc) model was common to both the 1975 and 1979 samples, significant differences in unique variances were observed across samples. Some, albeit weaker, evidence was found suggesting time-lagged differences in factor covariances. These data, for the most part, support previous research with younger individuals, suggesting consistency in factor structure across time and cohort.

  12. State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M; Beltz, Adriene M; Gates, Kathleen M; Wilson, Stephen J

    2016-01-15

    Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Hybrid magnetorheological fluid–elastomeric lag dampers for helicopter stability augmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Wei; Wereley, Norman M

    2008-01-01

    A laboratory demonstration of a hybrid magnetorheological fluid–elastomeric (MRFE) damper is investigated for adjustable or programmable lag mode damping in helicopters, so that damping requirements can be varied as a function of different flight conditions. The laboratory demonstration of this hybrid MRFE lag damper consists of a double lap shear elastomeric damper in parallel with two magnetorheological (MR) flow mode dampers. This is compared to a damper where only elastomeric materials are implemented, i.e., a double lap shear specimen. The relationship between the output force and the quasi-steady harmonic displacement input to a flow mode MR damper is exploited, where the output force can be adjusted as a function of applied magnetic field. Equivalent viscous damping is used to compare the damping characteristics of the hybrid damper to a conventional elastomeric damper under steady-state sinusoidal displacement excitation. To demonstrate feasibility, a hybrid MRFE damper test setup is designed, and single frequency (lag frequency or rotor in-plane bending frequency) and dual frequency (lag frequency and rotor frequency) tests are conducted under different magnetic fields. The hybrid MRFE damper exhibits amplitude-dependent damping behavior. However, with application of a magnetic field, the damping level is controlled to a specific damping level objective as a function of displacement amplitude. Similarly, under dual frequency conditions, damping degradation at the lag frequency, because of lag motion at the rotor frequency, can also be recovered by increasing magnetic field. A time-domain analysis is developed to study the nonlinear dynamic behavior of the hybrid MRFE damper. Using rate-dependent elasto-slides, the amplitude-dependent behavior of the hybrid MRFE damper is accurately reconstructed using both constant and current-dependent (i.e. controllable) parameters. The analysis is physically motivated and can be applied to the elastomer and MR fluid

  14. Stochastic lag time in nucleated linear self-assembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiwari, Nitin S. [Group Theory of Polymers and Soft Matter, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Schoot, Paul van der [Group Theory of Polymers and Soft Matter, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Institute for Theoretical Physics, Utrecht University, Leuvenlaan 4, 3584 CE Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2016-06-21

    Protein aggregation is of great importance in biology, e.g., in amyloid fibrillation. The aggregation processes that occur at the cellular scale must be highly stochastic in nature because of the statistical number fluctuations that arise on account of the small system size at the cellular scale. We study the nucleated reversible self-assembly of monomeric building blocks into polymer-like aggregates using the method of kinetic Monte Carlo. Kinetic Monte Carlo, being inherently stochastic, allows us to study the impact of fluctuations on the polymerization reactions. One of the most important characteristic features in this kind of problem is the existence of a lag phase before self-assembly takes off, which is what we focus attention on. We study the associated lag time as a function of system size and kinetic pathway. We find that the leading order stochastic contribution to the lag time before polymerization commences is inversely proportional to the system volume for large-enough system size for all nine reaction pathways tested. Finite-size corrections to this do depend on the kinetic pathway.

  15. Dual Phase Lag Model of Melting Process in Domain of Metal Film Subjected to an External Heat Flux

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mochnacki B.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Heating process in the domain of thin metal film subjected to a strong laser pulse are discussed. The mathematical model of the process considered is based on the dual-phase-lag equation (DPLE which results from the generalized form of the Fourier law. This approach is, first of all, used in the case of micro-scale heat transfer problems (the extremely short duration, extreme temperature gradients and very small geometrical dimensions of the domain considered. The external heating (a laser action is substituted by the introduction of internal heat source to the DPLE. To model the melting process in domain of pure metal (chromium the approach basing on the artificial mushy zone introduction is used and the main goal of investigation is the verification of influence of the artificial mushy zone ‘width’ on the results of melting modeling. At the stage of numerical modeling the author’s version of the Control Volume Method is used. In the final part of the paper the examples of computations and conclusions are presented.

  16. Identifying and characterizing systematic temporally-lagged BOLD artifacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrge, Lisa; Kennedy, Daniel P

    2018-05-01

    Residual noise in the BOLD signal remains problematic for fMRI - particularly for techniques such as functional connectivity, where findings can be spuriously influenced by noise sources that can covary with individual differences. Many such potential noise sources - for instance, motion and respiration - can have a temporally lagged effect on the BOLD signal. Thus, here we present a tool for assessing residual lagged structure in the BOLD signal that is associated with nuisance signals, using a construction similar to a peri-event time histogram. Using this method, we find that framewise displacements - both large and very small - were followed by structured, prolonged, and global changes in the BOLD signal that depend on the magnitude of the preceding displacement and extend for tens of seconds. This residual lagged BOLD structure was consistent across datasets, and independently predicted considerable variance in the global cortical signal (as much as 30-40% in some subjects). Mean functional connectivity estimates varied similarly as a function of displacements occurring many seconds in the past, even after strict censoring. Similar patterns of residual lagged BOLD structure were apparent following respiratory fluctuations (which covaried with framewise displacements), implicating respiration as one likely mechanism underlying the displacement-linked structure observed. Global signal regression largely attenuates this artifactual structure. These findings suggest the need for caution in interpreting results of individual difference studies where noise sources might covary with the individual differences of interest, and highlight the need for further development of preprocessing techniques for mitigating such structure in a more nuanced and targeted manner. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Non-retinotopic motor-visual recalibration to temporal lag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masaki eTsujita

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal order judgment between the voluntary motor action and its perceptual feedback is important in distinguishing between a sensory feedback which is caused by observer’s own action and other stimulus, which are irrelevant to that action. Prolonged exposure to fixed temporal lag between motor action and visual feedback recalibrates motor-visual temporal relationship, and consequently shifts the point of subjective simultaneity (PSS. Previous studies on the audio-visual temporal recalibration without voluntary action revealed that both low and high level processing are involved. However, it is not clear how the low and high level processings affect the recalibration to constant temporal lag between voluntary action and visual feedback. This study examined retinotopic specificity of the motor-visual temporal recalibration. During the adaptation phase, observers repeatedly pressed a key, and visual stimulus was presented in left or right visual field with a fixed temporal lag (0 or 200 ms. In the test phase, observers performed a temporal order judgment for observer’s voluntary keypress and test stimulus, which was presented in the same as or opposite to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented in the adaptation phase. We found that the PSS was shifted toward the exposed lag in both visual fields. These results suggest that the low visual processing, which is retinotopically specific, has minor contribution to the multimodal adaptation, and that the adaptation to shift the PSS mainly depends upon the high level processing such as attention to specific properties of the stimulus.

  18. Constraining Anisotropic Lorentz Violation via the Spectral-lag Transition of GRB 160625B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Jun-Jie; Wu, Xue-Feng; Shao, Lang [Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Zhang, Bin-Bin [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucá (IAA-CSIC), P.O. Box 03004, E-18080 Granada (Spain); Mészáros, Peter [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, 525 Davey Laboratory, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Kostelecký, V. Alan, E-mail: xfwu@pmo.ac.cn, E-mail: kostelec@indiana.edu [Physics Department, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405 (United States)

    2017-06-20

    Violations of Lorentz invariance can lead to an energy-dependent vacuum dispersion of light, which results in arrival-time differences of photons with different energies arising from a given transient source. In this work, direction-dependent dispersion constraints are obtained on nonbirefringent Lorentz-violating effects using the observed spectral lags of the gamma-ray burst GRB 160625B. This burst has unusually large high-energy photon statistics, so we can obtain constraints from the true spectral time lags of bunches of high-energy photons rather than from the rough time lag of a single highest-energy photon. Also, GRB 160625B is the only burst to date having a well-defined transition from positive lags to negative lags, providing a unique opportunity to distinguish Lorentz-violating effects from any source-intrinsic time lag in the emission of photons of different energy bands. Our results place comparatively robust two-sided constraints on a variety of isotropic and anisotropic coefficients for Lorentz violation, including the first bounds on Lorentz-violating effects from operators of mass dimension 10 in the photon sector.

  19. When homogeneity meets heterogeneity: the geographically weighted regression with spatial lag approach to prenatal care utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoff, Carla; Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju; Yang, Tse-Chuan

    2014-01-01

    Using geographically weighted regression (GWR), a recent study by Shoff and colleagues (2012) investigated the place-specific risk factors for prenatal care utilization in the US and found that most of the relationships between late or not prenatal care and its determinants are spatially heterogeneous. However, the GWR approach may be subject to the confounding effect of spatial homogeneity. The goal of this study is to address this concern by including both spatial homogeneity and heterogeneity into the analysis. Specifically, we employ an analytic framework where a spatially lagged (SL) effect of the dependent variable is incorporated into the GWR model, which is called GWR-SL. Using this innovative framework, we found evidence to argue that spatial homogeneity is neglected in the study by Shoff et al. (2012) and the results are changed after considering the spatially lagged effect of prenatal care utilization. The GWR-SL approach allows us to gain a place-specific understanding of prenatal care utilization in US counties. In addition, we compared the GWR-SL results with the results of conventional approaches (i.e., OLS and spatial lag models) and found that GWR-SL is the preferred modeling approach. The new findings help us to better estimate how the predictors are associated with prenatal care utilization across space, and determine whether and how the level of prenatal care utilization in neighboring counties matters. PMID:24893033

  20. 阴道毛滴虫长寿保障基因Tv-LAG1的克隆和表达%Trichomonas vaginalis LAG1 cDNA Cloning and Fusion Protein Expression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘红; 傅玉才; 张仁利; 钱元恕

    2006-01-01

    目的 克隆原生动物阴道毛滴虫(Trichomonas vaginalis,Tv)长寿保障基因[longevity assurance gene 1(LAG1)]的同源基因Tv-LAG1.构建Tv-LAG1原核表达重组体及表达其融合蛋白.方法 从阴道毛滴虫cDNA表达文库中筛选LAG1的同源基因,用pET41表达载体与Tv-LAG1 cDNA克隆构建原核表达重组体并表达融合蛋白,纯化表达产物用SDS-PAGE法鉴定.用纯化的融合蛋白免疫家兔,获得抗血清,采用Westernblot法对抗体特异性进行分析鉴定.结果 成功构建pET41/Tv-LAG1原核表达重组体,并表达出预期大小的重组蛋白.用融合蛋白免疫家兔获得的抗体能特异性识别Tv-Lag1p/GST融合蛋白.结论 Tv-Lag1p/GST融合蛋白获得高效表达,并成功纯化,初步实验证明具有一定的免疫原性,为研究Tv-Lag1p在模式生物阴道毛滴虫的细胞定位以及其功能奠定了基础.

  1. The effect of infection and lag screw fixation on the union of membranous bone grafts in a rabbit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fialkov, J A; Phillips, J H; Walmsley, S L

    1994-03-01

    Infection complicating craniofacial procedures contributes significantly to patient morbidity and health care costs. The role of fixation materials in this setting remains unclear. As foreign material, does fixation hardware increase patients' susceptibility to developing postoperative infection? Furthermore, once infection is established, should fixation hardware be removed? To answer these questions, we performed an onlay membranous bone grafting procedure to the mandible in 94 New Zealand White rabbits, applied lag-screw fixation in half the animals, and inoculated the wounds with different bacterial doses. We quantified the differential rates of infection and rates of graft union in the presence of infection. The infection rates for the rigidly fixated group were not significantly different from the rates for the nonfixated group for a range of bacterial inoculum doses. There was no significant difference in the rates of resolution of infection and sepsis between the two groups. Gross and histologic assessments revealed a significantly lower union rate for infected grafts when compared with uninfected grafts. Furthermore, grafts rigidly fixated with a lag screw showed a higher rate of union when compared with nonfixated grafts in the presence of infection. In the absence of infection, the union rates for fixated and nonfixated groups did not differ significantly. While fixation hardware has been cited as a risk factor for postoperative infection, we were unable to show that lag-screw fixation contributes to this risk. Although infection impaired the union of membranous bone grafts to the recipient mandible, fixation of the grafts with a lag screw significantly decreased this deleterious effect of infection.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  2. Study on confirmation of Solid-Meal Lag Phase of Gastric Emptying

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ji Young; Lee, Kyoung Soo; Kim, Chang Guhn; Juhng, Seon Kwan; Won, Jong Jin; Nah, Yong Ho

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the existence of a lag phase of gastric emptying of solid meals. We studied solid phase gastric emptying in 26 normal subject using continuous data acquisition for 30 minutes. Each ingested a 300 g meal containing 99m Tc-labeled scrambled egg (solid 150 g, milk 150 ml). Lag phase was determined by 1) inspection of the gastric emptying curve 2) time to a 2% decrease in stomach activity 3) the time of visual appearance of duodenal activity on computer image. We concluded that solid meal lag phase exist.

  3. Study on confirmation of Solid-Meal Lag Phase of Gastric Emptying

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ji Young; Lee, Kyoung Soo; Kim, Chang Guhn; Juhng, Seon Kwan; Won, Jong Jin; Nah, Yong Ho [Wonkwang University School of Medicine, Iksan (Korea, Republic of)

    1991-07-15

    The purpose of this study was to examine the existence of a lag phase of gastric emptying of solid meals. We studied solid phase gastric emptying in 26 normal subject using continuous data acquisition for 30 minutes. Each ingested a 300 g meal containing {sup 99m}Tc-labeled scrambled egg (solid 150 g, milk 150 ml). Lag phase was determined by 1) inspection of the gastric emptying curve 2) time to a 2% decrease in stomach activity 3) the time of visual appearance of duodenal activity on computer image. We concluded that solid meal lag phase exist.

  4. Effect of Coating Solvent Ratio on the Drug Release Lag Time of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erah

    Research Article ... Lag Time of Coated Theophylline Osmotic Tablets ... Key words: Coating solvent, Drug release, Lag time, Osmotic tablet, HPMC, .... following composition (w/w): theophylline ... tablets was measured by UV absorption.

  5. Influence of several factors on ignition lag in a compression-ignition engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrish, Harold C; Voss, Fred

    1932-01-01

    This investigation was made to determine the influence of fuel quality, injection advance angle, injection valve-opening pressure, inlet-air pressure, compression ratio, and engine speed on the time lag of auto-ignition of a Diesel fuel oil in a single-cylinder compression-ignition engine as obtained from an analysis of indicator diagrams. Three cam-operated fuel-injection pumps, two pumps cams, and an automatic injection valve with two different nozzles were used. Ignition lag was considered to be the interval between the start of injection of the fuel as determined with a Stroborama and the start of effective combustion as determined from the indicator diagram, the latter being the point where 4.0 x 10(exp-6) pound of fuel had been effectively burned. For this particular engine and fuel it was found that: (1) for a constant start and the same rate of fuel injection up the point of cut-off, a variation in fuel quantity from 1.2 x 10(exp-4) to 4.1 x 10(exp-4) pound per cycle has no appreciable effect on the ignition lag; (2) injection advance angle increases or decreases the lag according to whether density, temperature, or turbulence has the controlling influence; (3) increase in valve-opening pressure slightly increases the lag; and (4) increase of inlet-air pressure, compression ratio, and engine speed reduces the lag.

  6. Is melatonin useful for jet lag?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Tortorolo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available El jet lag es un trastorno exógeno del sueño y el ritmo circadiano que ocurre frecuentemente en viajeros que cruzan múltiples zonas horarias en un tiempo reducido. La administración de melatonina oral, neurohormona epifisiaria relacionada con la regulación de ritmos circadianos, se ha utilizado con el fin de disminuir los síntomas que caracterizan esta condición. Utilizando la base de datos Epistemonikos, la cual es mantenida mediante búsquedas en 30 bases de datos, encontramos cuatro revisiones sistemáticas que en conjunto incluyen 11 estudios aleatorizados. Realizamos un metanálisis y tablas de resumen de los resultados utilizando el método GRADE. Concluimos que la administración de melatonina oral probablemente disminuye los síntomas asociados al jet lag, y que no está claro si se asocia a efectos adversos, aunque estos serían leves.

  7. Exploring lag and duration effect of sunshine in triggering suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Fotios C; Frangakis, Constantine E; Skalkidou, Alkistis; Petridou, Eleni; Stevens, Richard G; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios

    2005-11-01

    Sunshine is considered to have a beneficial impact on mood. Interestingly, it has been consistently found that the incidence of suicide reaches a peak during early summer. In order to explore the pattern of sunshine and suicide risk in a time frame of up to nine days and investigate possible lag and duration parameters of sunshine in the triggering of suicide, Greek daily suicide and solar radiance data were analyzed for a 10-year period using logistic regression models. The solar radiance during the day before the suicide event was significantly associated with an increased suicide risk (OR=1.020 per MW/m2). The average solar radiance during the four previous days was also significantly associated with an increased suicide risk (OR=1.031 per MW/m2). Differences among genders include the longer sunshine exposure needed in males to trigger suicide, compared to females and a lag period of three to four days that was found to lapse in females till the suicide. The increase in suicide risk in June compared to December, attributable to the daily sunshine effect, varies from 52% to 88%, thus explaining the already known suicide monthly seasonality. No individual data on solar radiance exposure, mental disorders, alcohol consumption or suicide method were available. The effect of sunshine in the triggering of suicide may be mediated through a mechanism with a specific lag and duration effect, during the nine days preceding suicide. We hypothesize that sunshine acts as a natural antidepressant which first improves motivation, then only later improves mood, thereby creating a potential short-term increased risk of suicide initially upon its application.

  8. The effect of control and display lag on unmanned air system internal pilot manual landing performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Marshall Everett

    An important characteristic of UASs is lag because it can become a considerable challenge to successful human-in-the-loop control. As such, UASs are designed and configured to minimize system lag, though this can increase acquisition and operation costs considerably. In an effort to cut costs, an organization may choose to accept greater risk and deploy a UAS with high system lag. Before this risk can be responsibly accepted, it must be quantified. While many studies have examined system lag, very few have been able to quantify the risk that various levels of lag pose to an internally piloted, manually landed UAS. This study attempted to do so by evaluating pilot landing performance in a simulator with 0 ms, 240 ms, and 1000 ms of additional lag. Various measures were used, including a novel coding technique. Results indicated that 1000 ms of lag was unsafe by all measures. They also indicate that 240 ms of lag degrades performance, but participants were able to successfully land the simulated aircraft. This study showed the utility of using several measures to evaluate the effect of lag on landing performance and it helped demonstrate that while 1000 ms poses a high risk, 240 ms of lag may be a much more manageable risk. Future research suggested by this research includes: investigating lag between 240 ms and 1000 ms, introducing different weather phenomena, developing system lag training techniques for operators, and investigating the effect of aides such as predictive displays and autopilot-assisted recovery.

  9. Density-lag anomaly patterns in backshore sands along a paraglacial barrier spit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pupienis, Donatas; Buynevich, Ilya; Jarmalavičius, Darius; Fedorovič, Julija; Žilinskas, Gintautas; Ryabchuk, Daria; Kovaleva, Olga; Sergeev, Alexander; Cichon-Pupienis, Anna

    2016-04-01

    The Curonian Spit, located along the southeast Baltic Sea coast, is one of the longest paraglacial mega-barriers in the world (~100 km) and is characteried by microtidal sandy beaches and unbroken foredune ridge emplaced by human activities in historical times. Both are dominated by quartzo-feldpathic sand, with various fractions of heavy minerals that may be concentrated as density lag. Such heavy-mineral concentrations (HMCs) may be distributed weither randomly or regularly along the coast, depending on the geological framework, hydro-aeolian processes, and human activities (e.g., steel elements of coastal engineering structures, military installations, etc.). In this study, we focus on the longshore patterns in HMC distribution and relative magnitude (mainly the concentration of ferrimagnetic components). Along the entire Curonian Spit coast (Russia-Lithuania), a total of 184 surface sand samples were collected at 1 km interval from the berm and foredune toe (seaward base). HMCs were characterized in the laboratory using bulk low-field magnetic susceptibility (MS). The Wavelength and Lomb spectral analysis were used to assess the spatial rhythmicity of their longshore distribution. Generally, quartz sand is characterised by low MS values of ĸ150 μSI are typical for heavy mineral-rich sand. MS values on the berm and foredune toe range from 11.2-4977.9 μSI and from 9.2-3153.0 μSI, respectively. Density lag anomalies had MS values exceeding an average value by ≥3 times. Wavelength and Lomb spectral analysis allowed to identify several clusters of periodicities with wavelength varying from 2-12 km, with power spectra having statistically significant values (>95 % CI). Along the modern Curonian Spit coast, two scales of rhythmic pattern variation are evident: macroscale (≤12 km) and mesoscale (2-3 km). The former can be attributed to localized expressions of geological framework (iron-rich components) and engineering structures (especially within the southern

  10. AN INVESTIGATION OF TIME LAG MAPS USING THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATIONS OF HIGHLY STRATIFIED HEATING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winebarger, Amy R. [NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, ZP 13, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon [Predictive Science, Inc., 9990 Mesa Rim Rd., Ste. 170, San Diego, CA 92121-2910 (United States); Mok, Yung, E-mail: amy.r.winebarger@nasa.gov, E-mail: lionel@predsci.com, E-mail: cdowns@predsci.com, E-mail: mikicz@predsci.com, E-mail: linkerj@predsci.com, E-mail: ymok@uci.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The location and frequency of coronal energy release provide a significant constraint on the coronal heating mechanism. The evolution of the intensity observed in coronal structures found from time lag analysis of Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) data has been used to argue that heating must occur sporadically. Recently, we have demonstrated that quasi-steady, highly stratified (footpoint) heating can produce results qualitatively consistent with the evolution of observed coronal structures. The goals of this paper are to demonstrate that time lag analysis of 3D simulations of footpoint heating are qualitatively consistent with time lag analysis of observations and to use the 3D simulations to further understand whether time lag analysis is a useful tool in defining the evolution of coronal structures. We find the time lag maps generated from simulated data are consistent with the observed time lag maps. We next investigate several example points. In some cases, the calculated time lag reflects the evolution of a unique loop along the line of sight, though there may be additional evolving structures along the line of sight. We confirm that using the multi-peak AIA channels can produce time lags that are difficult to interpret. We suggest using a different high temperature channel, such as an X-ray channel. Finally, we find that multiple evolving structures along the line of sight can produce time lags that do not represent the physical properties of any structure along the line of sight, although the cross-correlation coefficient of the lightcurves is high. Considering the projected geometry of the loops may reduce some of the line-of-sight confusion.

  11. Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Academic Performance: Cross-Lagged Associations from Adolescence to Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaltonen, Sari; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J; Kujala, Urho M; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

    2016-12-15

    Physical activity and academic performance are positively associated, but the direction of the association is poorly understood. This longitudinal study examined the direction and magnitude of the associations between leisure-time physical activity and academic performance throughout adolescence and young adulthood. The participants were Finnish twins (from 2,859 to 4,190 individuals/study wave) and their families. In a cross-lagged path model, higher academic performance at ages 12, 14 and 17 predicted higher leisure-time physical activity at subsequent time-points (standardized path coefficient at age 14: 0.07 (p academic performance. A cross-lagged model of co-twin differences suggested that academic performance and subsequent physical activity were not associated due to the environmental factors shared by co-twins. Our findings suggest that better academic performance in adolescence modestly predicts more frequent leisure-time physical activity in late adolescence and young adulthood.

  12. Academic Self-Concept and Achievement in Polish Primary Schools: Cross-Lagged Modelling and Gender-Specific Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grygiel, Pawel; Modzelewski, Michal; Pisarek, Jolanta

    2017-01-01

    This study reports relationships between general academic self-concept and achievement in grade 3 and grade 5. Gender-specific effects were investigated using a longitudinal, two-cycle, 3-year autoregressive cross-lagged panel design in a large, representative sample of Polish primary school pupils (N = 4,226). Analysis revealed (a) reciprocal…

  13. Does a trochanteric lag screw improve fixation of vertically oriented femoral neck fractures? A biomechanical analysis in cadaveric bone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawks, Michael A; Kim, Hyunchul; Strauss, Joseph E; Oliphant, Bryant W; Golden, Robert D; Hsieh, Adam H; Nascone, Jason W; O'Toole, Robert V

    2013-10-01

    We assessed the biomechanical performances of a trochanteric lag screw construct and a traditional inverted triangle construct in the treatment of simulated Pauwels type 3 femoral neck fractures. An inverted triangle construct (three 7.3-mm cannulated screws placed in inverted triangle orientation) and a trochanteric lag screw construct (two 7.3-mm cannulated screws placed across the superior portion of the femoral neck and one 4.5-mm lag screw placed perpendicular to the fracture in superolateral to inferomedial orientation) were tested in nine matched pairs of non-osteoporotic human cadaveric femora. We used a previously described vertically oriented femoral neck fracture model and testing protocol that incrementally loaded the constructs along the mechanical axis of the femur to 1400 N. Specimens that survived incremental loading underwent cyclic loading. Apparent construct stiffness, force at 3mm of displacement, and survival of incremental loading were recorded. The trochanteric lag screw group had a 70% increase in stiffness (261 N/mm [29 standard deviation] versus 153 N/mm [16 standard deviation]; P=0.026) and a 43% increase in force required for displacement (620 N versus 435 N; P=0.018) compared with the inverted triangle group. One trochanteric lag screw and no inverted triangle specimen survived incremental loading. A trochanteric lag screw construct applied to vertically oriented femoral neck fractures provides marked improvement in mechanical performance compared with the inverted triangle construct. © 2013.

  14. Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Vaginal drug distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, David F; Yuan, Andrew; Gao, Yajing

    2015-09-15

    This review presents and applies fundamental mass transport theory describing the diffusion and convection driven mass transport of drugs to the vaginal environment. It considers sources of variability in the predictions of the models. It illustrates use of model predictions of microbicide drug concentration distribution (pharmacokinetics) to gain insights about drug effectiveness in preventing HIV infection (pharmacodynamics). The modeling compares vaginal drug distributions after different gel dosage regimens, and it evaluates consequences of changes in gel viscosity due to aging. It compares vaginal mucosal concentration distributions of drugs delivered by gels vs. intravaginal rings. Finally, the modeling approach is used to compare vaginal drug distributions across species with differing vaginal dimensions. Deterministic models of drug mass transport into and throughout the vaginal environment can provide critical insights about the mechanisms and determinants of such transport. This knowledge, and the methodology that obtains it, can be applied and translated to multiple applications, involving the scientific underpinnings of vaginal drug distribution and the performance evaluation and design of products, and their dosage regimens, that achieve it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. LAG-3 Represents a Marker of CD4+ T Cells with Regulatory Activity in Patients with Bone Fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Ti, Yunfan; Wang, Yicun; Guo, Guodong; Jiang, Hui; Chang, Menghan; Qian, Hongbo; Zhao, Jianning; Sun, Guojing

    2018-04-19

    The lymphocyte activation gene 3 (LAG-3) is a CD4 homolog with binding affinity to MHC class II molecules. It is thought that LAG-3 exerts a bimodal function, such that co-ligation of LAG-3 and CD3 could deliver an inhibitory signal in conventional T cells, whereas, on regulatory T cells, LAG-3 expression could promote their inhibitory function. In this study, we investigated the role of LAG-3 expression on CD4 + T cells in patients with long bone fracture. We found that LAG-3 + cells represented approximately 13% of peripheral blood CD4 + T cells on average. Compared to LAG-3 - CD4 + T cells, LAG-3 + CD4 + T cells presented significantly higher Foxp3 and CTLA-4 expression. Directly ex vivo or with TCR stimulation, LAG-3 + CD4 + T cells expressed significantly higher levels of IL-10 and TGF-β than LAG-3 - CD4 + T cells. Interestingly, blocking the LAG-3-MHC class II interaction actually increased the IL-10 expression by LAG-3 + CD4 + T cells. The frequency of LAG-3 + CD4 + T cell was positively correlated with restoration of healthy bone function in long bone fracture patients. These results together suggested that LAG-3 is a marker of CD4 + T cells with regulatory function; at the same time, LAG-3 might have limited the full suppressive potential of Treg cells.

  17. Modelling the effect of essential oil of betel leaf (Piper betle L.) on germination, growth, and apparent lag time of Penicillium expansum on semi-synthetic media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, Suradeep; Guha, Proshanta

    2015-12-23

    The current study aimed at characterizing the chemical components of betel leaf (Piper betle L. var. Tamluk Mitha) essential oil (BLEO) and modelling its effect on growth of Penicillium expansum on semi-synthetic medium. Gas chromatography-mass spectrophotometry (GC-MS) analysis of BLEO revealed the presence of different bioactive phenolic compounds in significant amounts. Among 46 different components identified, chavibetol (22.0%), estragole (15.8%), β-cubebene (13.6%), chavicol (11.8%), and caryophyllene (11.3%) were found to be the major compounds of BLEO. A disc diffusion and disc volatilization method were used to evaluate antifungal activity of the oil against a selected food spoilage mould. The logistic model was used to study the kinetics of spore germination. Prediction and validation of antifungal effect of BLEO was performed on semi-synthetic medium (apple juice agar) using predictive microbiological tools. The Baranyi and Roberts model was used to estimate maximum growth rate (μmax in mm/day) and apparent lag time (λ in days) of the mould. Secondary modelling was performed using a re-parameterized Monod-type equation based on cardinal values to study the effect of different BLEO concentration on estimated growth parameters. Emax (minimum concentration of oil at which mould growth was inhibited) and MIC (minimum inhibitory concentration of BLEO at which lag time is infinite) value of BLEO against P. expansum was estimated to be 0.56 and 0.74 μl/ml, respectively, which was found to be similar on potato dextrose agar (PDA) as well as apple juice agar (AJA) medium. The correlation between estimated growth parameters of the mould on both the media was obtained with satisfactory statistical indices (R(2) and RMSE). This study revealed inhibitory efficacy of BLEO on spore germination, mycelial growth and apparent lag time of P. expansum in a dose-dependent manner. Hence, BLEO has potential to be used as a natural food preservative. Copyright © 2015

  18. The Lag-Luminosity Relation in the GRB Source-Frame: An Investigation with Swift BAT Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukwatta, T. N.; Dhuga, K. S.; Stamatikos, M.; Dermer, C. D.; Sakamoto, T.; Sonbas, E.; Parke, W. C.; Maximon, L. C.; Linnemann, J. T.; Bhat, P. N.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Spectral lag, which is defined as the difference in time of arrival of high and low energy photons, is a common feature in Gamma-ray Bursts (GRBs). Previous investigations have shown a correlation between this lag and the isotropic peak luminosity for long duration bursts. However, most of the previous investigations used lags extracted in the observer-frame only. In this work (based on a sample of 43 Swift long GRBs with known redshifts), we present an analysis of the lag-luminosity relation in the GRB source-frame. Our analysis indicates a higher degree of correlation -0.82+/-0.05 (chance probability of approx 5.5 X 10(exp -5) between the spectral lag and the isotropic peak luminosity, L(sub iso), with a best-fit power-law index of -1.2 +/- 0.2, such that L(sub iso) varies as lag(exp -1.2). In addition, there is an anti-correlation between the source-frame spectral lag and the source-frame peak energy of the burst spectrum, E(sub pk)(1 + z).

  19. Yeast multistress resistance and lag-phase characterisation during wine fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, David; Galeote, Virginie; Sanchez, Isabelle; Legras, Jean-Luc; Ortiz-Julien, Anne; Dequin, Sylvie

    2017-09-01

    Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been used to perform wine fermentation for several millennia due to its endurance and unmatched qualities. Nevertheless, at the moment of inoculation, wine yeasts must cope with specific stress factors that still challenge wine makers by slowing down or compromising the fermentation process. To better assess the role of genetic and environmental factors that govern multistress resistance during the wine fermentation lag phase, we used a factorial plan to characterise the individual and combined impact of relevant stress factors on eight S. cerevisiae and two non-S. cerevisiae wine yeast strains that are currently commercialised. The S. cerevisiae strains are very genetically diverse, belonging to the wine and flor groups, and frequently contain a previously described XVIVIII translocation that confers increased resistance to sulphites. We found that low temperature and osmotic stress substantially affected all strains, promoting considerably extended lag phases. SO2 addition had a partially temperature-dependent effect, whereas low phytosterol and thiamine concentrations impacted the lag phase in a strain-dependent manner. No major synergic effects of multistress were detected. The diversity of lag-phase durations and stress responses observed among wine strains offer new insights to better control this critical step of fermentation. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Chaos in a four-dimensional system consisting of fundamental lag elements and the relation to the system eigenvalues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kita, Toshihiro

    2005-01-01

    A simple system consisting of a second-order lag element (a damped linear pendulum) and two first-order lag elements with piecewise-linear static feedback that has been derived from a power system model is presented. It exhibits chaotic behavior for a wide range of parameter values. The analysis of the bifurcations and the chaotic behavior are presented with qualitative estimation of the parameter values for which the chaotic behavior is observed. Several characteristics like scalability of the attractor and globality of the attractor-basin are also discussed

  1. Two-temperature theory in magneto-thermoelasticity with fractional order dual-phase-lag heat transfer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ezzat, Magdy A., E-mail: maezzat2000@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Letters in Al Bukayriyyah, Al-Qassim University, Al-Qassim (Saudi Arabia); El-Karamany, Ahmed S., E-mail: qaramani@gmail.com [Department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Nizwa University, P.O. Box 1357, Nizwa 611 (Oman); Ezzat, Shereen M. [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Letters in Al Bukayriyyah, Al-Qassim University, Al-Qassim (Saudi Arabia)

    2012-11-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model fractional order dual-phase-lag heat conduction law. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We applied the model on a perfect conducting half-space of elastic material. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Some theories of generalized thermoelasticity follow as limit cases. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer State space approach is adopted for the solution of one-dimensional problems. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model will improve the efficiency of thermoelectric material. - Abstract: A new mathematical model of two-temperature magneto-thermoelasticity is constructed where the fractional order dual-phase-lag heat conduction law is considered. The state space approach developed in Ezzat (2008) is adopted for the solution of one-dimensional application for a perfect conducting half-space of elastic material, which is thermally shocked in the presence of a transverse magnetic field. The Laplace transform technique is used. A numerical method is employed for the inversion of the Laplace transforms. According to the numerical results and its graphs, conclusion about the new theory has been constructed. Some theories of generalized thermoelasticity follow as limit cases. Some comparisons have been shown in figures to estimate effects of temperature discrepancy and fractional order parameter on all the studied fields.

  2. A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Cameron C; Sheridan, Scott C

    2018-07-01

    Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975-2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6-24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34-71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0-2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2-4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. AVOIDING RISK IN WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT DISTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloysius Deno Hervino

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzes risk avoidance behaviour of banking institutions in distributing working capital loan in Indonesia. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model, this paper uncovers three findings. First, in the short run, risk avoidance in working capital loan distribution depends on inter-call banking money market and Sertifikat Bank Indonesia. Second, following banking regulation after 1997 crisis, banks have become more careful in distributing credits, with SBI as a substitution instrument and inter-call banking money market as a complement instrument to spread the risk. Third, all explanatory variables take an average of 6 days or 1 week to influence bank’s risk avoidance behaviour.Keywords:     Risk avoidance, working capital distribution, banking institutions JEL classification numbers: C32, C52, D81, E51

  4. Reentrainment of the circadian pacemaker during jet lag: East-west asymmetry and the effects of north-south travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekman, Casey O; Bose, Amitabha

    2018-01-21

    The normal alignment of circadian rhythms with the 24-h light-dark cycle is disrupted after rapid travel between home and destination time zones, leading to sleep problems, indigestion, and other symptoms collectively known as jet lag. Using mathematical and computational analysis, we study the process of reentrainment to the light-dark cycle of the destination time zone in a model of the human circadian pacemaker. We calculate the reentrainment time for travel between any two points on the globe at any time of the day and year. We construct one-dimensional entrainment maps to explain several properties of jet lag, such as why most people experience worse jet lag after traveling east than west. We show that this east-west asymmetry depends on the endogenous period of the traveler's circadian clock as well as daylength. Thus the critical factor is not simply whether the endogenous period is greater than or less than 24 h as is commonly assumed. We show that the unstable fixed point of an entrainment map determines whether a traveler reentrains through phase advances or phase delays, providing an understanding of the threshold that separates orthodromic and antidromic modes of reentrainment. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that jet lag only occurs after east-west travel across multiple time zones, we predict that the change in daylength encountered during north-south travel can cause jet lag even when no time zones are crossed. Our techniques could be used to provide advice to travelers on how to minimize jet lag on trips involving multiple destinations and a combination of transmeridian and translatitudinal travel. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  6. NuSTAR detection of 4s Hard X-ray Lags from the Accreting Pulsar GS 0834-430

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachetti Matteo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The NuSTAR hard X-ray telescope observed the transient Be/X-ray binary GS 0834–430 during its 2012 outburst. The source is detected between 3 – 79 keV with high statistical significance, and we were able to perform very accurate spectral and timing analysis. The phase-averaged spectrum is consistent with that observed in many other magnetized accreting pulsars. We fail to detect cyclotron resonance scattering features in either phase-averaged nor phase-resolved spectra that would allow us to constrain the pulsar’s magnetic field. We detect a pulse period of ~ 12:29 s in all energy bands. The pulse profile can be modeled with a double Gaussian and shows a strong and smooth hard lag of up to 0.3 cycles in phase, or about 4s between the pulse at ~ 3 and ≳ 30 keV. This is the first report of such a strong lag in high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB pulsars. Previously reported lags have been significantly smaller in phase and restricted to low-energies (E<10 keV. We investigate the possible mechanisms that might produce such lags. We find the most likely explanation for this effect to be a complex beam geometry.

  7. A forward bias method for lag correction of an a-Si flat panel detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starman, Jared; Tognina, Carlo; Partain, Larry; Fahrig, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Digital a-Si flat panel (FP) x-ray detectors can exhibit detector lag, or residual signal, of several percent that can cause ghosting in projection images or severe shading artifacts, known as the radar artifact, in cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) reconstructions. A major contributor to detector lag is believed to be defect states, or traps, in the a-Si layer of the FP. Software methods to characterize and correct for the detector lag exist, but they may make assumptions such as system linearity and time invariance, which may not be true. The purpose of this work is to investigate a new hardware based method to reduce lag in an a-Si FP and to evaluate its effectiveness at removing shading artifacts in CBCT reconstructions. The feasibility of a novel, partially hardware based solution is also examined. Methods: The proposed hardware solution for lag reduction requires only a minor change to the FP. For pulsed irradiation, the proposed method inserts a new operation step between the readout and data collection stages. During this new stage the photodiode is operated in a forward bias mode, which fills the defect states with charge. A Varian 4030CB panel was modified to allow for operation in the forward bias mode. The contrast of residual lag ghosts was measured for lag frames 2 and 100 after irradiation ceased for standard and forward bias modes. Detector step response, lag, SNR, modulation transfer function (MTF), and detective quantum efficiency (DQE) measurements were made with standard and forward bias firmware. CBCT data of pelvic and head phantoms were also collected. Results: Overall, the 2nd and 100th detector lag frame residual signals were reduced 70%-88% using the new method. SNR, MTF, and DQE measurements show a small decrease in collected signal and a small increase in noise. The forward bias hardware successfully reduced the radar artifact in the CBCT reconstruction of the pelvic and head phantoms by 48%-81%. Conclusions: Overall, the

  8. The Lag-Luminosity Relation in the GRB Source Frame: An Investigation with Swift BAT Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukwatta, T. N.; Dhuga, K. S.; Stamatikos, M.; Dermer, C. D.; Sakamoto, T.; Sonbas, E.; Parke, W. C.; Maximon, L. C.; Linnemann, J. T.; Bhat, P. N.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Spectral lag. which is defined as the difference in time of arrival of high- and low-energy photons. is a common feature in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Previous investigations have shown a correlation between this lag and the isotropic peak luminosity for long duration bursts. However. most of the previous investigations used lags extracted in the observer frame only. In this work (based on a sample of 43 Swift long GRBs with known redshifts). we present an analysis of the lag-luminosity relation in the GRB source frame. Our analysis indicates a higher degree of correlation -0.82 +/- 0.05 (chance probability of approx. 5.5 x 10(exp -5) between the spectral lag and the isotropic peak luminosity, L(sub iso). with a best-fitting power-law index of -1.2 +/- 0.2. In addition, there is an anticorrelation between the source-frame spectral lag and the source-frame peak energy of the burst spectrum.

  9. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugino, Hideharu; Sakagami, Masaharu; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Korenaga, Mariko

    2011-01-01

    In the area in front of Nankai trough, tsunami wave height may increase if tsunamis attacking from some wave sources overlap because of time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough. To evaluation tsunami risk of the important facilities located in front of Nankai trough, we proposed the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering uncertainty on time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough and we evaluated the influence that the time-lag gave to tsunami hazard at the some representative points. (author)

  10. Prestressing force monitoring method for a box girder through distributed long-gauge FBG sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shi-Zhi; Wu, Gang; Xing, Tuo; Feng, De-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring prestressing forces is essential for prestressed concrete box girder bridges. However, the current monitoring methods used for prestressing force were not applicable for a box girder neither because of the sensor’s setup being constrained or shear lag effect not being properly considered. Through combining with the previous analysis model of shear lag effect in the box girder, this paper proposed an indirect monitoring method for on-site determination of prestressing force in a concrete box girder utilizing the distributed long-gauge fiber Bragg grating sensor. The performance of this method was initially verified using numerical simulation for three different distribution forms of prestressing tendons. Then, an experiment involving two concrete box girders was conducted to study the feasibility of this method under different prestressing levels preliminarily. The results of both numerical simulation and lab experiment validated this method’s practicability in a box girder.

  11. Anti-correlated Soft Lags in the Intermediate State of Black Hole Source GX 339-4

    OpenAIRE

    Sriram, K.; Rao, A. R.; Choi, C. S.

    2010-01-01

    We report the few hundred second anti-correlated soft lags between soft and hard energy bands in the source GX 339-4 using RXTE observations. In one observation, anti-correlated soft lags were observed using the ISGRI/INTEGRAL hard energy band and the PCA/RXTE soft energy band light curves. The lags were observed when the source was in hard and soft intermediate states, i.e., in a steep power-law state.We found that the temporal and spectral properties were changed during the lag timescale. T...

  12. Electronic trigger for capacitive touchscreen and extension of ISO 15781 standard time lag measurements to smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucher, François-Xavier; Cao, Frédéric; Viard, Clément; Guichard, Frédéric

    2014-03-01

    We present in this paper a novel capacitive device that stimulates the touchscreen interface of a smartphone (or of any imaging device equipped with a capacitive touchscreen) and synchronizes triggering with the DxO LED Universal Timer to measure shooting time lag and shutter lag according to ISO 15781:2013. The device and protocol extend the time lag measurement beyond the standard by including negative shutter lag, a phenomenon that is more and more commonly found in smartphones. The device is computer-controlled, and this feature, combined with measurement algorithms, makes it possible to automatize a large series of captures so as to provide more refined statistical analyses when, for example, the shutter lag of "zero shutter lag" devices is limited by the frame time as our measurements confirm.

  13. NRC wants plant-specific responses on Thermo-Lag

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Dissatisfied with recent industry-backed efforts to assure fire safety at nuclear power plants, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced on November 24 that it would direct all nuclear plant owners to specify the actions they would take to assure that the use of the Thermo-Lag 330 fire barrier material would not lead to insufficient protection of electrical cables connected to safe-shutdown systems. Previously, the NRC had been content to let the matter wait until tests sponsored by the Nuclear Management and Resources Council (Numarc) could show whether Thermo-Lag, used and installed in certain ways, would provide sufficient protection, but the NRC and Numarc have disagreed over the test methodology, and the Numarc tests are now considered to be several months behind schedule

  14. An energy-balance model with multiply-periodic and quasi-chaotic free oscillations. [for climate forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, K.; Ghil, M.

    1979-01-01

    A slightly modified version of the one-dimensional time-dependent energy-balance climate model of Ghil and Bhattacharya (1978) is presented. The albedo-temperature parameterization has been reformulated and the smoothing of the temperature distribution in the tropics has been eliminated. The model albedo depends on time-lagged temperature in order to account for finite growth and decay time of continental ice sheets. Two distinct regimes of oscillatory behavior which depend on the value of the albedo-temperature time lag are considered.

  15. Is a maturational lag associated with left-handedness? A research note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, W O; Chipperfield, J G; Ritchot, K F; Kostiuk, J H

    1996-07-01

    One element of Coren and Halpern's controversial theory [Psychological Bulletin, 109, 90-106 (1991)] that left-handedness is associated with shorter lifespans is the hypothesis that sinistrality is accompanied by a developmental lag. Perinatal traumas could interfere with the normal developmental shift to right-sided lateral preferences during childhood, leading to an association between maturational lag and left-handedness. In a test of this hypothesis, we assessed current stature, predicted adult stature and relative stature, an index of physical maturity, for elementary school-aged children in three separate, large-sample studies. No relations between hand preference and the three measures of physical status were found. Repeated failures to confirm the hypothesis with pre-adolescent samples raise serious doubt about the viability of the left-handed developmental lag hypothesis.

  16. [Effects of orthokeratology lenses on the magnitude of accommodative lag and accommodativeconvergence/accommodation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Qiujin; Yue, Hui; Zhou, Qing

    2016-02-01

    To evaluate the change in accommodative lag and accommodation convergence/accommodation (AC/A) after patients with myopia wear orthokeratology lenses. 
 A total of 48 myopic subjects (a test group), who wore orthokeratology lenses regularly, and 48 myopic subjects (a control group), who wore spectacles regularly, were enrolled for this study from January 2011 to January 2013 in Optometric Center, the Forth Hospital of Changsha. Accommodative lag was measured by fused cross cylinder method, where the patients should gaze at the front optotypes 40 cm away. Gradient of the AC/A ratio was measured by Von Grafe method to check closer distance heterophoria. Accommodative lag and AC/A ratio were analyzed by statistics.
 After 1-year follow-up, accommodative lag and AC/A rate in patients with low or moderate myopia in the test group was decreased in 1, 3, 6 months or 1 year compared with that in the control group (Paccommodative lag and high AC/A rate in patients with low or moderate myopia. The relationship between accommodation and convergence is improved by orthokeratology lenses. Orthokeratology is an effective way to control myopia.

  17. EFFICIENCY INCREASING OF BELT CONVEYOR’S DRIVE BY CERAMIC LAGGING OF DRIVING PULLEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef JURMAN

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In any point of the belt contact with the drum a relative speed compensation takes place that is carried out by a slippage even when the relevant contact spots are fairly clean and dry. This leads to heat generation that is being absorbed by both materials involved – by the belt as well as by the drum. Unlike the belt, the drum lagging would increase its temperature up to a certain limit that depends on number of factors. When the lagging surface temperature is reaching appx. 60°C some structural changes in the lagging material take place and further rise of temperature can create a risk of belt inflammation and destruction of the driving unit. This can be avoided by lagging the drum with new materials that eliminate any friction on the contact surfaces and that are heat resistant.

  18. Phase lags of quasi-periodic oscillations across source states in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636-53

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Avellar, Marcio G. B.

    2017-06-01

    The majority of attempts to explain the origin and phenomenology of the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) detected in low-mass X-ray binaries invoke dynamical models, and it was just in recent years that renewed attention has been given on how radiative processes occurring in these extreme environments gives rise to the variability features observed in the X-ray light curves of these systems. The study of the dependence of the phase lags upon the energy and frequency of the QPOs is a step towards this end. The methodology we developed here allowed us to study for the first time these dependencies for all QPOs detected in the range of 1 to 1300 Hz in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636-53 as the source changes its state during its cycle in the colour-colour diagram. Our results suggest that within the context of models of up-scattering Comptonization, the phase lags dependencies upon frequency and energy can be used to extract size scales and physical conditions of the medium that produces the lags.

  19. Early biometric lag in the prediction of small for gestational age neonates and preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Nadav; Pessel, Cara; Coletta, Jaclyn; Krieger, Abba M; Timor-Tritsch, Ilan E

    2011-01-01

    An early fetal growth lag may be a marker of future complications. We sought to determine the utility of early biometric variables in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. In this retrospective cohort study, the crown-rump length at 11 to 14 weeks and the head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, femur length, humerus length, transverse cerebellar diameter, and estimated fetal weight at 18 to 24 weeks were converted to an estimated gestational age using published regression formulas. Sonographic fetal growth (difference between each biometric gestational age and the crown-rump length gestational age) minus expected fetal growth (number of days elapsed between the two scans) yielded the biometric growth lag. These lags were tested as predictors of small for gestational age (SGA) neonates (≤10th percentile) and preeclampsia. A total of 245 patients were included. Thirty-two (13.1%) delivered an SGA neonate, and 43 (17.6%) had the composite outcome. The head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, and estimated fetal weight lags were identified as significant predictors of SGA neonates after adjusted analyses (P biometric lag variables and the development of preeclampsia. Routinely available biometric data can be used to improve the prediction of adverse outcomes such as SGA. These biometric lags should be considered in efforts to develop screening algorithms for adverse outcomes.

  20. Optimal lag in dynamical investments

    OpenAIRE

    Serva, M.

    1998-01-01

    A portfolio of different stocks and a risk-less security whose composition is dynamically maintained stable by trading shares at any time step leads to a growth of the capital with a nonrandom rate. This is the key for the theory of optimal-growth investment formulated by Kelly. In presence of transaction costs, the optimal composition changes and, more important, it turns out that the frequency of transactions must be reduced. This simple observation leads to the definition of an optimal lag...

  1. Real-time modeling of heat distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei; Yarlanki, Srinivas

    2018-01-02

    Techniques for real-time modeling temperature distributions based on streaming sensor data are provided. In one aspect, a method for creating a three-dimensional temperature distribution model for a room having a floor and a ceiling is provided. The method includes the following steps. A ceiling temperature distribution in the room is determined. A floor temperature distribution in the room is determined. An interpolation between the ceiling temperature distribution and the floor temperature distribution is used to obtain the three-dimensional temperature distribution model for the room.

  2. Minimization of diauxic growth lag-phase for high-efficiency biogas production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min Jee; Kim, Sang Hun

    2017-02-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a minimization method of a diauxic growth lag-phase for the biogas production from agricultural by-products (ABPs). Specifically, the effects of proximate composition on the biogas production and degradation rates of the ABPs were investigated, and a new method based on proximate composition combinations was developed to minimize the diauxic growth lag-phase. Experiments were performed using biogas potential tests at a substrate loading of 2.5 g VS/L and feed to microorganism ratio (F/M) of 0.5 under the mesophilic condition. The ABPs were classified based on proximate composition (carbohydrate, protein, and fat etc.). The biogas production patterns, lag phase, and times taken for 90% biogas production (T90) were used for the evaluation of the biogas production with biochemical methane potential (BMP) test. The high- or medium-carbohydrate and low-fat ABPs (cheese whey, cabbage, and skim milk) showed a single step digestion process and low-carbohydrate and high-fat ABPs (bean curd and perilla seed) showed a two-step digestion process. The mixture of high-fat ABPs and high-carbohydrate ABPs reduced the lag-phase and increased the biogas yield more than that from single ABP by 35-46%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The nitrate time bomb: a numerical way to investigate nitrate storage and lag time in the unsaturated zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L; Butcher, A S; Stuart, M E; Gooddy, D C; Bloomfield, J P

    2013-10-01

    Nitrate pollution in groundwater, which is mainly from agricultural activities, remains an international problem. It threatens the environment, economics and human health. There is a rising trend in nitrate concentrations in many UK groundwater bodies. Research has shown it can take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into groundwater and surface water due to the 'store' of nitrate and its potentially long travel time in the unsaturated and saturated zones. However, this time lag is rarely considered in current water nitrate management and policy development. The aim of this study was to develop a catchment-scale integrated numerical method to investigate the nitrate lag time in the groundwater system, and the Eden Valley, UK, was selected as a case study area. The method involves three models, namely the nitrate time bomb-a process-based model to simulate the nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone (USZ), GISGroundwater--a GISGroundwater flow model, and N-FM--a model to simulate the nitrate transport in the saturated zone. This study answers the scientific questions of when the nitrate currently in the groundwater was loaded into the unsaturated zones and eventually reached the water table; is the rising groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area caused by historic nitrate load; what caused the uneven distribution of groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area; and whether the historic peak nitrate loading has reached the water table in the area. The groundwater nitrate in the area was mainly from the 1980s to 2000s, whilst the groundwater nitrate in most of the source protection zones leached into the system during 1940s-1970s; the large and spatially variable thickness of the USZ is one of the major reasons for unevenly distributed groundwater nitrate concentrations in the study area; the peak nitrate loading around 1983 has affected most of the study area. For areas around the Bowscar, Beacon Edge, Low Plains, Nord Vue

  4. ENERGY-DEPENDENT TIME LAGS IN THE SEYFERT 1 GALAXY NGC 4593

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sriram, K.; Agrawal, V. K.; Rao, A. R.

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the energy-time lag dependence of the source NGC 4593 using XMM-Newton/EPIC pn data. We found that the time lag dependency is linear in nature with respect to the logarithm of different energy bands. We also investigate the frequency-dependent time lags and identify that at some frequency range (5 x 10 -5 Hz to 2 x 10 -4 Hz) the X-ray emission is highly coherent, mildly frequency dependent, and very strongly energy dependent. These observations can be explained in the framework of the thermal Comptonization process, and they indicate a truncated accretion disk very close to the black hole. We discuss the plausible spectral state to explain the phenomenon and conclude that the observed properties bear a close resemblance to the intermediate state or the steep power-law state, found in galactic black hole sources.

  5. A multilevel cross-lagged structural equation analysis for reciprocal relationship between social capital and health

    OpenAIRE

    Sessions, John; Yu, Ge; Fu, Yu; Wall, Matin

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the reciprocal relationship between individual social capital and perceived mental and physical health in the UK. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 2008, we fitted cross-lagged structural equation models that include three indicators of social capital vis. social participation, social network, and loneliness. Given that multiple measurement points (level 1) are nested within individuals (level 2), we also applied a multilevel model to allow for re...

  6. Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

    2014-05-20

    This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

  7. Longitudinal Links Between Identity Consolidation and Psychosocial Problems in Adolescence: Using Bi-Factor Latent Change and Cross-Lagged Effect Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatano, Kai; Sugimura, Kazumi; Schwartz, Seth J

    2018-04-01

    Most previous identity research has focused on relationships between identity synthesis, confusion, and psychosocial problems. However, these studies did not take into account Erikson's notion of identity consolidation, that is, the dynamic interplay between identity synthesis and confusion. This study aimed to examine longitudinal relationships and the directionality of the effects between identity consolidation and psychosocial problems during adolescence, using two waves of longitudinal data from 793 Japanese adolescents (49.7% girls; ages 13-14 and 16-17 at Time 1). A bi-factor latent change model revealed that levels and changes in identity consolidation were negatively associated with levels and changes in psychosocial problems. Furthermore, a bi-factor cross-lagged effects model provided evidence that identity consolidation negatively predicted psychosocial problems, and vice versa. Our study facilitates a better understanding of the importance of identity consolidation in the relations between identity components and psychosocial problems.

  8. Ratio of basin lag times for runoff and sediment yield processes recorded in various environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Banasik

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available River basin lag time (LAG, defined as the elapsed time between the occurrence of the centroids of the effective rainfall intensity hyetograph and the storm runoff hydrograph, is an important factor in determining the time to peak and the peak value of the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH. In the procedure of predicting a sedimentgraph (suspended sediment load as a function of time, the equivalent parameter is the lag time for the sediment yield (LAGs, which is defined as the elapsed time between the occurrence of the centroids of sediment production during a storm event and the observed sedimentgraph at the gauging station. Data of over 150 events recorded in 11 small river catchments (located in Poland, Germany, UK and USA with a drainage area of 0.02 km2 to 82 km2 have been analysed to estimate the ratio of LAGs/LAG. The ratio, in majority of cases was smaller than 1, and decreased with increase of river basin slope. Special attention is given to the data collected in a small agricultural catchment and also during snowmelt periods, which is located in central Poland.

  9. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Composite Lags at z ≤ 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jennifer; Shen, Yue; Horne, Keith; Brandt, W. N.; Greene, Jenny E.; Grier, C. J.; Ho, Luis C.; Kochanek, Chris; Schneider, Donald P.; Trump, Jonathan R.; Dawson, Kyle S.; Pan, Kaike; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Oravetz, Daniel; Simmons, Audrey; Malanushenko, Elena

    2017-09-01

    We present composite broad-line region (BLR) reverberation mapping lag measurements for Hα, Hβ, He II λ4686, and Mg II for a sample of 144, z ≲ 1 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. Using only the 32-epoch spectroscopic light curves in the first six-month season of SDSS-RM observations, we compile correlation function measurements for individual objects and then coadd them to allow the measurement of the average lags for our sample at mean redshifts of 0.4 (for Hα) and ˜0.65 (for the other lines). At similar quasar luminosities and redshifts, the sample-averaged lag decreases in the order of Mg II, Hα, Hβ, and He II. This decrease in lags is accompanied by an increase in the mean line width of the four lines, and is roughly consistent with the virialized motion for BLR gas in photoionization equilibrium. These are among the first RM measurements of stratified BLR structure at z > 0.3. Dividing our sample by luminosity, Hα shows clear evidence of increasing lags with luminosity, consistent with the expectation from the measured BLR size-luminosity relation based on Hβ. The other three lines do not show a clear luminosity trend in their average lags due to the limited dynamic range of luminosity probed and the poor average correlation signals in the divided samples, a situation that will be improved with the incorporation of additional photometric and spectroscopic data from SDSS-RM. We discuss the utility and caveats of composite lag measurements for large statistical quasar samples with reverberation mapping data.

  10. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Composite Lags at z ≤ 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jennifer; Shen, Yue [Department of Astronomy, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Horne, Keith [SUPA Physics/Astronomy, Univ. of St. Andrews, St. Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Brandt, W. N.; Grier, C. J.; Schneider, Donald P. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802 (United States); Greene, Jenny E. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Ho, Luis C. [Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Kochanek, Chris [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, 140 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Trump, Jonathan R. [Department of Physics, University of Connecticut, 2152 Hillside Road, Unit 3046, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States); Dawson, Kyle S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Pan, Kaike; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Oravetz, Daniel; Simmons, Audrey; Malanushenko, Elena [Apache Point Observatory and New Mexico State University, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM, 88349-0059 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    We present composite broad-line region (BLR) reverberation mapping lag measurements for H α , H β , He ii λ 4686, and Mg ii for a sample of 144, z ≲ 1 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. Using only the 32-epoch spectroscopic light curves in the first six-month season of SDSS-RM observations, we compile correlation function measurements for individual objects and then coadd them to allow the measurement of the average lags for our sample at mean redshifts of 0.4 (for H α ) and ∼0.65 (for the other lines). At similar quasar luminosities and redshifts, the sample-averaged lag decreases in the order of Mg ii, H α , H β , and He ii. This decrease in lags is accompanied by an increase in the mean line width of the four lines, and is roughly consistent with the virialized motion for BLR gas in photoionization equilibrium. These are among the first RM measurements of stratified BLR structure at z > 0.3. Dividing our sample by luminosity, H α shows clear evidence of increasing lags with luminosity, consistent with the expectation from the measured BLR size–luminosity relation based on H β . The other three lines do not show a clear luminosity trend in their average lags due to the limited dynamic range of luminosity probed and the poor average correlation signals in the divided samples, a situation that will be improved with the incorporation of additional photometric and spectroscopic data from SDSS-RM. We discuss the utility and caveats of composite lag measurements for large statistical quasar samples with reverberation mapping data.

  11. TRACING THE REVERBERATION LAG IN THE HARD STATE OF BLACK HOLE X-RAY BINARIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Marco, B.; Ponti, G.; Nandra, K.; Muñoz-Darias, T.

    2015-01-01

    We report results obtained from a systematic analysis of X-ray lags in a sample of black hole X-ray binaries, with the aim of assessing the presence of reverberation lags and studying their evolution during outburst. We used XMM-Newton and simultaneous Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations to obtain broadband energy coverage of both the disk and the hard X-ray Comptonization components. In most cases the detection of reverberation lags is hampered by low levels of variability-power signal-to-noise ratio (typically when the source is in a soft state) and/or short exposure times. The most detailed study was possible for GX 339-4 in the hard state, which allowed us to characterize the evolution of X-ray lags as a function of luminosity in a single source. Over all the sampled frequencies (∼0.05–9 Hz), we observe the hard lags intrinsic to the power-law component, already well known from previous RXTE studies. The XMM-Newton soft X-ray response allows us to detail the disk variability. At low frequencies (long timescales) the disk component always leads the power-law component. On the other hand, a soft reverberation lag (ascribable to thermal reprocessing) is always detected at high frequencies (short timescales). The intrinsic amplitude of the reverberation lag decreases as the source luminosity and the disk fraction increase. This suggests that the distance between the X-ray source and the region of the optically thick disk where reprocessing occurs gradually decreases as GX 339-4 rises in luminosity through the hard state, possibly as a consequence of reduced disk truncation

  12. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Composite Lags at z ≤ 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Jennifer; Shen, Yue; Horne, Keith; Brandt, W. N.; Grier, C. J.; Schneider, Donald P.; Greene, Jenny E.; Ho, Luis C.; Kochanek, Chris; Trump, Jonathan R.; Dawson, Kyle S.; Pan, Kaike; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Oravetz, Daniel; Simmons, Audrey; Malanushenko, Elena

    2017-01-01

    We present composite broad-line region (BLR) reverberation mapping lag measurements for H α , H β , He ii λ 4686, and Mg ii for a sample of 144, z ≲ 1 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. Using only the 32-epoch spectroscopic light curves in the first six-month season of SDSS-RM observations, we compile correlation function measurements for individual objects and then coadd them to allow the measurement of the average lags for our sample at mean redshifts of 0.4 (for H α ) and ∼0.65 (for the other lines). At similar quasar luminosities and redshifts, the sample-averaged lag decreases in the order of Mg ii, H α , H β , and He ii. This decrease in lags is accompanied by an increase in the mean line width of the four lines, and is roughly consistent with the virialized motion for BLR gas in photoionization equilibrium. These are among the first RM measurements of stratified BLR structure at z > 0.3. Dividing our sample by luminosity, H α shows clear evidence of increasing lags with luminosity, consistent with the expectation from the measured BLR size–luminosity relation based on H β . The other three lines do not show a clear luminosity trend in their average lags due to the limited dynamic range of luminosity probed and the poor average correlation signals in the divided samples, a situation that will be improved with the incorporation of additional photometric and spectroscopic data from SDSS-RM. We discuss the utility and caveats of composite lag measurements for large statistical quasar samples with reverberation mapping data.

  13. From Logical to Distributional Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Preller

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper relates two variants of semantic models for natural language, logical functional models and compositional distributional vector space models, by transferring the logic and reasoning from the logical to the distributional models. The geometrical operations of quantum logic are reformulated as algebraic operations on vectors. A map from functional models to vector space models makes it possible to compare the meaning of sentences word by word.

  14. Lag synchronization of Rossler system and Chua circuit via a scalar signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Chuandong; Liao Xiaofeng

    2004-01-01

    In this Letter, a chaotic lag synchronization scheme is proposed based on combining a nonlinear with lag-in-time observer design. Our approach leads to a systematic methodology, which guarantees the synchronization of a wide class of chaotic systems via a scalar signal. The proposed technique has been applied to synchronize two well-known chaotic systems: Rossler's system and Chua circuit

  15. On three phase lags thermodi¤usion theory in micropolar porous circular plate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajneesh Kumar

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present work examines a two dimensional axisymmetric problem of micropolar porous thermodi¤usion circular plate due to thermal and chemical potential sources. The governing equations are solved by using the potential function. The expressions of displacements, microrotation, volume fraction field, temperature distribution, concentration and stresses are obtained in the transformed domain by using Laplace and Hankel transforms. The inversion of transforms using Fourier expansion techniques has been applied to obtain the results in the physical domain. The numerical results for resulting quantities are obtained and depicted graphically to show the influence of porosity, relaxation time, phase lags, with and without energy dissipation on the resulting quantities. Some particular cases are also deduced.

  16. Large submarine sand waves and gravel lag substrates on Georges Bank off Atlantic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, B.J.; Valentine, Page C.; Harris, Peter T; Baker, E.K.

    2012-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow, continental shelf feature offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada. The bank is mantled with a veneer of glacial debris transported during the late Pleistocene from continental areas lying to the north. These sediments were reworked by marine processes during postglacial sea-level transgression and continue to be modified by the modern oceanic regime. The surficial geology of the Canadian portion of the bank is a widespread gravel lag overlain in places by well sorted sand occurring as bedforms. The most widespread bedforms are large, mobile, asymmetrical sand waves up to 19 m in height formed through sediment transport by strong tidal-driven and possibly storm-driven currents. Well-defined curvilinear bedform crests up to 15 km long form a complex bifurcating pattern having an overall southwest–northeast strike, which is normal to the direction of the major axis of the semidiurnal tidal current ellipse. Minor fields of immobile, symmetrical sand waves are situated in bathymetric lows. Rare mobile, asymmetrical barchan dunes are lying on the gravel lag in areas of low sand supply. On Georges Bank, the management of resources and habitats requires an understanding of the distribution of substrate types, their surface dynamics and susceptibility to movement, and their associated fauna.

  17. Phase lags of quasi-periodic oscillations across source states in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636–53

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Avellar, Marcio G B

    2017-01-01

    The majority of attempts to explain the origin and phenomenology of the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) detected in low-mass X-ray binaries invoke dynamical models, and it was just in recent years that renewed attention has been given on how radiative processes occurring in these extreme environments gives rise to the variability features observed in the X-ray light curves of these systems. The study of the dependence of the phase lags upon the energy and frequency of the QPOs is a step towards this end. The methodology we developed here allowed us to study for the first time these dependencies for all QPOs detected in the range of 1 to 1300 Hz in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636–53 as the source changes its state during its cycle in the colour-colour diagram. Our results suggest that within the context of models of up-scattering Comptonization, the phase lags dependencies upon frequency and energy can be used to extract size scales and physical conditions of the medium that produces the lags. (paper)

  18. EVOLUTION OF THE CROSS-CORRELATION AND TIME LAG OF 4U 1735-44 ALONG THE BRANCHES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei Yajuan; Zhang Haotong; Zhang Chengmin; Yuan Hailong; Dong Yiqiao; Zhao Yongheng; Zhang Yanxia; Qu Jinlu; Song Liming; Wang Dehua; Yin Hongxing

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the cross-correlation function between the soft and hard X-rays of atoll source 4U 1735-44 with RXTE data, and find anti-correlated soft and hard time lags of about a hecto-second. In the island state, the observations do not show any obvious correlations, and most observations of the banana branch show a positive correlation. However, anti-correlations are detected in the upper banana branch. These results are different from those of Z-sources (Cyg X-2, GX 5-1), where anti-correlations are detected in the horizontal branch and upper normal branch. In this case, the lag timescales of both this atoll and Z-sources are found to be similar, at a magnitude of several tens to hundreds of seconds. As a comparison, it is noted that anti-correlated lags lasting thousands of seconds have been reported from several black hole candidates in their intermediate states. In addition, for an observation containing four segments that show positive or anti-correlation, we analyze the spectral evolution with the hybrid model. In the observation, the anti-correlation is detected at the highest flux. The fitting results show that the Comptonized component is not the lowest at the highest flux, which suggests that the anti-correlation corresponds to the transition between the soft and hard states. Finally, we compare the corresponding results of atoll source 4U 1735-44 with those observed in Z-sources and black hole candidates, and the possible origins of the anti-correlated time lags are discussed

  19. EVOLUTION OF THE CROSS-CORRELATION AND TIME LAG OF 4U 1735-44 ALONG THE BRANCHES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei Yajuan; Zhang Haotong; Zhang Chengmin; Yuan Hailong; Dong Yiqiao; Zhao Yongheng; Zhang Yanxia [Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Qu Jinlu; Song Liming [Particle Astrophysics Center, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Wang Dehua [Astronomy Department, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yin Hongxing, E-mail: leiyjcwmy@163.com [School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University, Weihai 264209 (China)

    2013-09-15

    We analyze the cross-correlation function between the soft and hard X-rays of atoll source 4U 1735-44 with RXTE data, and find anti-correlated soft and hard time lags of about a hecto-second. In the island state, the observations do not show any obvious correlations, and most observations of the banana branch show a positive correlation. However, anti-correlations are detected in the upper banana branch. These results are different from those of Z-sources (Cyg X-2, GX 5-1), where anti-correlations are detected in the horizontal branch and upper normal branch. In this case, the lag timescales of both this atoll and Z-sources are found to be similar, at a magnitude of several tens to hundreds of seconds. As a comparison, it is noted that anti-correlated lags lasting thousands of seconds have been reported from several black hole candidates in their intermediate states. In addition, for an observation containing four segments that show positive or anti-correlation, we analyze the spectral evolution with the hybrid model. In the observation, the anti-correlation is detected at the highest flux. The fitting results show that the Comptonized component is not the lowest at the highest flux, which suggests that the anti-correlation corresponds to the transition between the soft and hard states. Finally, we compare the corresponding results of atoll source 4U 1735-44 with those observed in Z-sources and black hole candidates, and the possible origins of the anti-correlated time lags are discussed.

  20. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H

    2001-01-01

    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...

  1. An Examination of the Audit Report Lag of Companies Quoted in the Nigeria Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Chika Onwuchekwa

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available As important information conciliator, audit report is all the time a focus of audit firms, companies, regulators and investors and its report lag directly determines the usefulness of decision making. We examined the audit report lag of companies quoted in the Nigeria stock exchange for the period 2008 to 2011. The investigation was conducted on a pooled sample of 60 firms across industries (Construction, Breweries, Oil & Gas, Health care, Packaging, Insurance, Publishing, Food Products, Automobiles, Hotel & tourism, Real Estate, Mortgage, ICT, Agro-Allied, Building Materials, Conglomerates, Courier and Banking. The results show that age of a company and total asset has a significant impact on audit report lag in Nigeria. However, the result indicates that Firm size and firm switch has no significant relationship on audit report lag in Nigerian companies. We recommended that further research area on audit report lag should increase the sample size and also the number of years under investigation. Also, Policy makers should look into the audit report lag of quoted companies in Nigeria and formulate policies to enforce compliance. This will assist in boosting investors’ confidence and also guide them in taken timely quality decisions either to invest or de-invest.

  2. Photothermal waves for two temperature with a semiconducting medium under using a dual-phase-lag model and hydrostatic initial stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotfy, Kh.

    2017-07-01

    The dual-phase-lag (DPL) model with two different time translations and Lord-Shulman (LS) theory with one relaxation time are applied to study the effect of hydrostatic initial stress on medium under the influence of two temperature parameter(a new model will be introduced using two temperature theory) and photothermal theory. We solved the thermal loading at the free surface in the semi-infinite semiconducting medium-coupled plasma waves with the effect of mechanical force during a photothermal process. The exact expressions of the considered variables are obtained using normal mode analysis also the two temperature coefficient ratios were obtained analytically. Numerical results for the field quantities are given in the physical domain and illustrated graphically under the effects of several parameters. Comparisons are made between the results of the two different models with and without two temperature parameter, and for two different values of the hydrostatic initial stress. A comparison is carried out between the considered variables as calculated from the generalized thermoelasticity based on the DPL model and the LS theory in the absence and presence of the thermoelastic and thermoelectric coupling parameters.

  3. Chimera States in Two Populations with Heterogeneous Phase-lag

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martens, Erik Andreas; Bick, Christian; Panaggio, Mark

    2016-01-01

    The simplest network of coupled phase-oscillators exhibiting chimera states is given by two populations with disparate intra- and inter-population coupling strengths. We explore the effects of heterogeneous coupling phase-lags between the two populations. Such heterogeneity arises naturally......-uniform synchronization, including in-phase and anti-phase synchrony, full incoherence (splay state), chimera states with phase separation of 0 or π between populations, and states where both populations remain desynchronized. These desynchronized states exhibit stable, oscillatory, and even chaotic dynamics. Moreover......, we identify the bifurcations through which chimera and desynchronized states emerge. Stable chimera states and desynchronized solutions, which do not arise for homogeneous phase-lag parameters, emerge as a result of competition between synchronized in-phase, anti-phase equilibria, and fully...

  4. Stability of The Synchronization Manifold in An All-To-All Time LAG- Diffusively Coupled Oscillators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adu A.M. Wasike

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available we consider a lattice system of identical oscillators that are all coupled to one another with a diffusive coupling that has a time lag. We use the natural splitting of the system into synchronized manifold and transversal manifold to estimate the value of the time lag for which the stability of the system follows from that without a time lag. Each oscillator has a unique periodic solution that is attracting.

  5. A simple approach for EPID dosimetric calibration to overcome the effect of image-lag and ghosting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alshanqity, Mukhtar; Duane, Simon; Nisbet, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    EPID dosimetry has known drawbacks. The main issue is that a measurable residual signal is observed after the end of irradiation for prolonged periods of time, thus making measurement difficult. We present a detailed analysis of EPID response and suggest a simple, yet accurate approach for calibration that avoids the complexity of incorporating ghosting and image-lag using the maximum integrated signal instead of the total integrated signal. This approach is linear with dose and independent of dose rate. - Highlights: ► Image-lag and ghosting effects dosimetric accuracy. ► Image-lag and ghosting result in the reduction of total integrated signal for low doses. ► Residual signal is the most significant result for the image-lag and ghosting effects. ► Image-lag and ghosting can result in under-dosing of up to 2.5%.

  6. The scale-dependent market trend: Empirical evidences using the lagged DFA method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Daye; Kou, Zhun; Sun, Qiankun

    2015-09-01

    In this paper we make an empirical research and test the efficiency of 44 important market indexes in multiple scales. A modified method based on the lagged detrended fluctuation analysis is utilized to maximize the information of long-term correlations from the non-zero lags and keep the margin of errors small when measuring the local Hurst exponent. Our empirical result illustrates that a common pattern can be found in the majority of the measured market indexes which tend to be persistent (with the local Hurst exponent > 0.5) in the small time scale, whereas it displays significant anti-persistent characteristics in large time scales. Moreover, not only the stock markets but also the foreign exchange markets share this pattern. Considering that the exchange markets are only weakly synchronized with the economic cycles, it can be concluded that the economic cycles can cause anti-persistence in the large time scale but there are also other factors at work. The empirical result supports the view that financial markets are multi-fractal and it indicates that deviations from efficiency and the type of model to describe the trend of market price are dependent on the forecasting horizon.

  7. Function and regulation of LAG3 on CD4+CD25- T cells in non-small cell lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qin-Yun; Huang, Da-Yu; Zhang, Hui-Jun; Wang, Shaohua; Chen, Xiao-Feng

    2017-11-15

    LAG3 is a surface molecule found on a subset of immune cells. The precise function of LAG3 appears to be context-dependent. In this study, we investigated the effect of LAG3 on CD4 + CD25 - T cells from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We found that in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of NSCLC patients, LAG3 was significantly increased in CD4 + T cells directly ex vivo and primarily in the CD4 + CD25 - fraction, which was regulated by prolonged TCR stimulation and the presence of IL-27. TCR stimulation also increased CD25 expression, but not Foxp3 expression, in LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells Compared to LAG3-nonexpressing CD4 + CD25 - cells, LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells presented significantly higher levels of PD1 and TIM3, two inhibitory receptors best described in exhausted CD8 + T effector cells. LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells also presented impaired proliferation compared with LAG3-nonexpressing CD4 + CD25 - cells but could be partially rescued by inhibiting both PD1 and TIM3. Interestingly, CD8 + T cells co-incubated with LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - cells at equal cell numbers demonstrated significantly lower proliferation than CD8 + T cells incubated alone. Co-culture with CD8 + T cell and LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cell also upregulated soluble IL-10 level in the supernatant, of which the concentration was positively correlated with the number of LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cells. In addition, we found that LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cells infiltrated the resected tumors and were present at higher frequencies of in metastases than in primary tumors. Taken together, these data suggest that LAG3-expressing CD4 + CD25 - T cells represent another regulatory immune cell type with potential to interfere with anti-tumor immunity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. In vitro Assays for Eukaryotic Leading/Lagging Strand DNA Replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Grant; Finkelstein, Jeff; O'Donnell, Mike

    2017-09-20

    The eukaryotic replisome is a multiprotein complex that duplicates DNA. The replisome is sculpted to couple continuous leading strand synthesis with discontinuous lagging strand synthesis, primarily carried out by DNA polymerases ε and δ, respectively, along with helicases, polymerase α-primase, DNA sliding clamps, clamp loaders and many other proteins. We have previously established the mechanisms by which the polymerases ε and δ are targeted to their 'correct' strands, as well as quality control mechanisms that evict polymerases when they associate with an 'incorrect' strand. Here, we provide a practical guide to differentially assay leading and lagging strand replication in vitro using pure proteins.

  9. Distributed Leadership Agency and Its Relationship to Individual Autonomy and Occupational Self-Efficacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Unterrainer, Christine; Jeppesen, Hans Jeppe; Jønsson, Thomas Faurholt

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is the investigation of distributed leadership agency (DLA). DLA is an activity-based concept, which is defined as employees’ active participation in leadership tasks. By combining a descriptive and a normative approach DLA has the potential of real employee...... empowerment. It can protect from arbitrary managerial power and lead to employees’ personal development through sharing organizational resources, influencing leadership activities and joint decision making in companies. The study examines individually perceived autonomy as an antecedent and employees......-sectional as well as cross-lagged relationships and an autoregressive model for analyzing the half-longitudinal mediation. The results revealed a significant positive effect of DLA on employees’ occupational self-efficacy cross-sectionally at Time 1 (n = 117) and Time 2 (n = 67), as well as cross-lagged (n = 67...

  10. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  11. ANTI-CORRELATED SOFT LAGS IN THE INTERMEDIATE STATE OF BLACK HOLE SOURCE GX 339-4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sriram, K.; Choi, C. S.; Rao, A. R.

    2010-01-01

    We report the few hundred second anti-correlated soft lags between soft and hard energy bands in the source GX 339-4 using RXTE observations. In one observation, anti-correlated soft lags were observed using the ISGRI/INTEGRAL hard energy band and the PCA/RXTE soft energy band light curves. The lags were observed when the source was in hard and soft intermediate states, i.e., in a steep power-law state. We found that the temporal and spectral properties were changed during the lag timescale. The anti-correlated soft lags are associated with spectral variability during which the geometry of the accretion disk is changed. The observed temporal and spectral variations are explained using the framework of truncated disk geometry. We found that during the lag timescale, the centroid frequency of quasi-periodic oscillation is decreased, the soft flux is decreased along with an increase in the hard flux, and the power-law index steepens together with a decrease in the disk normalization parameter. We argue that these changes could be explained if we assume that the hot corona condenses and forms a disk in the inner region of the accretion disk. The overall spectral and temporal changes support the truncated geometry of the accretion disk in the steep power-law state or in the intermediate state.

  12. Lagging skills contribute to challenging behaviors in children with autism spectrum disorder without intellectual disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddox, Brenna B; Cleary, Patrick; Kuschner, Emily S; Miller, Judith S; Armour, Anna Chelsea; Guy, Lisa; Kenworthy, Lauren; Schultz, Robert T; Yerys, Benjamin E

    2017-08-01

    Many children with autism spectrum disorder display challenging behaviors. These behaviors are not limited to those with cognitive and/or language impairments. The Collaborative and Proactive Solutions framework proposes that challenging behaviors result from an incompatibility between environmental demands and a child's "lagging skills." The primary Collaborative and Proactive Solutions lagging skills-executive function, emotion regulation, language, and social skills-are often areas of weakness for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether these lagging skills are associated with challenging behaviors in youth with autism spectrum disorder without intellectual disability. Parents of 182 youth with autism spectrum disorder (6-15 years) completed measures of their children's challenging behaviors, executive function, language, emotion regulation, and social skills. We tested whether the Collaborative and Proactive Solutions lagging skills predicted challenging behaviors using multiple linear regression. The Collaborative and Proactive Solutions lagging skills explained significant variance in participants' challenging behaviors. The Depression (emotion regulation), Inhibit (executive function), and Sameness (executive function) scales emerged as significant predictors. Impairments in emotion regulation and executive function may contribute substantially to aggressive and oppositional behaviors in school-age youth with autism spectrum disorder without intellectual disability. Treatment for challenging behaviors in this group may consider targeting the incompatibility between environmental demands and a child's lagging skills.

  13. Lag Synchronization Between Two Coupled Networks via Open-Plus-Closed-Loop and Adaptive Controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong-Chun Hu; Yong-Qing Wu; Shi-Xing Li

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study lag synchronization between two coupled networks and apply two types of control schemes, including the open-plus-closed-loop (OPCL) and adaptive controls. We then design the corresponding control algorithms according to the OPCL and adaptive feedback schemes. With the designed controllers, we obtain two theorems on the lag synchronization based on Lyapunov stability theory and Barbalat's lemma. Finally we provide numerical examples to show the effectiveness of the obtained controllers and see that the adaptive control is stronger than the OPCL control when realizing the lag synchronization between two coupled networks with different coupling structures. (paper)

  14. Work gets unfair for the depressed: cross-lagged relations between organizational justice perceptions and depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Jessica; Bliese, Paul D; Lang, Jonas W B; Adler, Amy B

    2011-05-01

    The organizational justice literature has consistently documented substantial correlations between organizational justice and employee depression. Existing theoretical literature suggests this relationship occurs because perceptions of organizational (in)justice lead to subsequent psychological health problems. Building on recent research on the affective nature of justice perceptions, in the present research we broaden this perspective by arguing there are also theoretical arguments for a reverse effect whereby psychological health problems influence perceptions of organizational justice. To contrast both theoretical perspectives, we test longitudinal lagged effects between organizational justice perceptions (i.e., distributive justice, interactional justice, interpersonal justice, informational justice, and procedural justice) and employee depressive symptoms using structural equation modeling. Analyses of 3 samples from different military contexts (N₁ = 625, N₂ = 134, N₃ = 550) revealed evidence of depressive symptoms leading to subsequent organizational justice perceptions. In contrast, the opposite effects of organizational justice perceptions on depressive symptoms were not significant for any of the justice dimensions. The findings have broad implications for theoretical perspectives on psychological health and organizational justice perceptions.

  15. Chain binomial models and binomial autoregressive processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Christian H; Pollett, Philip K

    2012-09-01

    We establish a connection between a class of chain-binomial models of use in ecology and epidemiology and binomial autoregressive (AR) processes. New results are obtained for the latter, including expressions for the lag-conditional distribution and related quantities. We focus on two types of chain-binomial model, extinction-colonization and colonization-extinction models, and present two approaches to parameter estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators are studied, as well as their finite-sample performance, and we give an application to real data. A connection is made with standard AR models, which also has implications for parameter estimation. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Daily Stress and Emotional Well-Being among Asian American Adolescents: Same-Day, Lagged, and Chronic Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiang, Lisa; Buchanan, Christy M.

    2014-01-01

    Daily-diary data from 180 Asian American 9th-10th graders (58% female, 75% second generation; "M" age = 14.97 years) were used to investigate how family, school, and peer stress are each associated with same-day and next-day (lagged) well-being, and vice versa. Hierarchical linear modeling provided support for reciprocal links when…

  17. A Variance Distribution Model of Surface EMG Signals Based on Inverse Gamma Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Hideaki; Furui, Akira; Kurita, Yuichi; Tsuji, Toshio

    2017-11-01

    Objective: This paper describes the formulation of a surface electromyogram (EMG) model capable of representing the variance distribution of EMG signals. Methods: In the model, EMG signals are handled based on a Gaussian white noise process with a mean of zero for each variance value. EMG signal variance is taken as a random variable that follows inverse gamma distribution, allowing the representation of noise superimposed onto this variance. Variance distribution estimation based on marginal likelihood maximization is also outlined in this paper. The procedure can be approximated using rectified and smoothed EMG signals, thereby allowing the determination of distribution parameters in real time at low computational cost. Results: A simulation experiment was performed to evaluate the accuracy of distribution estimation using artificially generated EMG signals, with results demonstrating that the proposed model's accuracy is higher than that of maximum-likelihood-based estimation. Analysis of variance distribution using real EMG data also suggested a relationship between variance distribution and signal-dependent noise. Conclusion: The study reported here was conducted to examine the performance of a proposed surface EMG model capable of representing variance distribution and a related distribution parameter estimation method. Experiments using artificial and real EMG data demonstrated the validity of the model. Significance: Variance distribution estimated using the proposed model exhibits potential in the estimation of muscle force. Objective: This paper describes the formulation of a surface electromyogram (EMG) model capable of representing the variance distribution of EMG signals. Methods: In the model, EMG signals are handled based on a Gaussian white noise process with a mean of zero for each variance value. EMG signal variance is taken as a random variable that follows inverse gamma distribution, allowing the representation of noise superimposed onto this

  18. BAYESIAN MODELS FOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH ONLY-PRESENCE RECORDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolo de Jesús Villar-Hernández

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the central issues in ecology is the study of geographical distribution of species of flora and fauna through Species Distribution Models (SDM. Recently, scientific interest has focused on presence-only records. Two recent approaches have been proposed for this problem: a model based on maximum likelihood method (Maxlike and an inhomogeneous poisson process model (IPP. In this paper we discussed two bayesian approaches called MaxBayes and IPPBayes based on Maxlike and IPP model, respectively. To illustrate these proposals, we implemented two study examples: (1 both models were implemented on a simulated dataset, and (2 we modeled the potencial distribution of genus Dalea in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlán biosphere reserve with both models, the results was compared with that of Maxent. The results show that both models, MaxBayes and IPPBayes, are viable alternatives when species distribution are modeled with only-presence records. For simulated dataset, MaxBayes achieved prevalence estimation, even when the number of records was small. In the real dataset example, both models predict similar potential distributions like Maxent does. Â

  19. Bounding species distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

  20. Bounding Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

  1. Time lags between crown and basal sap flows in tropical lianas and co-occurring trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ya-Jun; Bongers, Frans; Tomlinson, Kyle; Fan, Ze-Xin; Lin, Hua; Zhang, Shu-Bin; Zheng, Yu-Long; Li, Yang-Ping; Cao, Kun-Fang; Zhang, Jiao-Lin

    2016-06-01

    Water storage in the stems of woody plants contributes to their responses to short-term water shortages. To estimate the contribution of water storage to the daily water budget of trees, time lags of sap flow between different positions of trunk are used as a proxy of stem water storage. In lianas, another large group of woody species, it has rarely been studied whether stored water functions in their daily water use, despite their increasing roles in the carbon and water dynamics of tropical forests caused by their increasing abundance. We hypothesized that lianas would exhibit large time lags due to their extremely long stems, wide vessels and large volume of parenchyma in the stem. We examined time lags in sap flow, diel changes of stem volumetric water content (VWC) and biophysical properties of sapwood of 19 lianas and 26 co-occurring trees from 27 species in 4 forests (karst, tropical seasonal, flood plain and savanna) during a wet season. The plants varied in height/length from 60 m. The results showed that lianas had significantly higher saturated water content (SWC) and much lower wood density than trees. Seven of 19 liana individuals had no time lags; in contrast, only 3 of 26 tree individuals had no time lags. In general, lianas had shorter time lags than trees in our data set, but this difference was not significant for our most conservative analyses. Across trees and lianas, time lag duration increased with diurnal maximum changeable VWC but was independent of the body size, path length, wood density and SWC. The results suggest that in most lianas, internal stem water storage contributes little to daily water budget, while trees may rely more on stored water in the stem. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. X-linked Acrogigantism (X-LAG) Syndrome: Clinical Profile and Therapeutic Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckers, Albert; Lodish, Maya Beth; Trivellin, Giampaolo; Rostomyan, Liliya; Lee, Misu; Faucz, Fabio R; Yuan, Bo; Choong, Catherine S; Caberg, Jean-Hubert; Verrua, Elisa; Naves, Luciana Ansaneli; Cheetham, Tim D; Young, Jacques; Lysy, Philippe A; Petrossians, Patrick; Cotterill, Andrew; Shah, Nalini Samir; Metzger, Daniel; Castermans, Emilie; Ambrosio, Maria Rosaria; Villa, Chiara; Strebkova, Natalia; Mazerkina, Nadia; Gaillard, Stéphan; Barra, Gustavo Barcelos; Casulari, Luis Augusto; Neggers, Sebastian J.; Salvatori, Roberto; Jaffrain-Rea, Marie-Lise; Zacharin, Margaret; Santamaria, Beatriz Lecumberri; Zacharieva, Sabina; Lim, Ee Mun; Mantovani, Giovanna; Zatelli, Maria Chaira; Collins, Michael T; Bonneville, Jean-François; Quezado, Martha; Chittiboina, Prashant; Oldfield, Edward H.; Bours, Vincent; Liu, Pengfei; De Herder, Wouter; Pellegata, Natalia; Lupski, James R.; Daly, Adrian F.; Stratakis, Constantine A.

    2015-01-01

    X-linked acro-gigantism (X-LAG) is a new syndrome of pituitary gigantism, caused by microduplications on chromosome Xq26.3, encompassing the gene GPR101, which is highly upregulated in pituitary tumors. We conducted this study to explore the clinical, radiological and hormonal phenotype and responses to therapy in patients with X-LAG syndrome. The study included 18 patients (13 sporadic) with X-LAG and a microduplication in chromosome Xq26.3. All sporadic cases had unique duplications and the inheritance pattern in 2 families was dominant with all Xq26.3 duplication carriers being affected. Patients began to grow rapidly as early as 2–3 months of age (median 12 months). At diagnosis (median delay 27 months), patients had a median height and weight SDS score of >+3.9 SDS. Apart from the increased overall body size, the children had acromegalic symptoms including acral enlargement and facial coarsening. More than a third of cases had increased appetite. Patients had marked hypersecretion of GH/IGF-1 and prolactin, usually due to a pituitary macroadenoma or hyperplasia. Primary neurosurgical control was achieved with extensive anterior pituitary resection but postoperative hypopituitarism was frequent. Control with somatostatin analogs was not readily achieved despite moderate to high somatostatin receptor subtype-2 expression in tumor tissue. Postoperative adjuvant pegvisomant achieved control of IGF-1 all 5 cases in which it was employed. X-LAG is a new infant-onset gigantism syndrome that has a severe clinical phenotype leading to challenging disease management. PMID:25712922

  3. Drug lag for cardiovascular drug approvals in India compared with the US and EU approvals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaven C. Kataria

    2013-01-01

    Conclusion: This study confirms that there is a substantial drug lag in approval of new cardiovascular drugs in India compared with the United States and European Union. The impact of drug lag on health outcomes remains to be established.

  4. Changing Climate Drives Lagging and Accelerating Glacier Responses and Accelerating Adjustments of the Hazard Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargel, Jeffrey

    2013-04-01

    advances) of glaciers due to historic and future anthropogenic and longer term climate change relate to a changing glacier hazard regime. Climate change is connected to changes in the geographic distribution and magnitudes of potentially hazardous glacier lakes, large rock and ice avalanches, ice-dammed rivers, and surges. I shall consider these changes in hazard environment in relation to response-time theory and dynamical divergences from idealized response-time theory. Case histories of certain hazard-prone regions, including developments in fast-response-type glaciers and slow-response glaciers and ice sheets will also be discussed. In short, there will be a strong tendency of the hazard regimes of glacierized regions to shift far more rapidly in the 21st century than they did in the 20th century. The magnitude of the shifts will be more dramatic than any simple linear scaling to climate warming would suggest; this is largely because, due to lagging responses, glaciers are still trying to catch up to a new equilibrium for 20th century climate, while climate change remains a moving target that will drive accelerating glacier responses (including responses in hazard environments) in most glacierized regions.

  5. X-ray short-time lags in the Fe-K energy band produced by scattering clouds in active galactic nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizumoto, Misaki; Done, Chris; Hagino, Kouichi; Ebisawa, Ken; Tsujimoto, Masahiro; Odaka, Hirokazu

    2018-05-01

    X-rays illuminating the accretion disc in active galactic nuclei give rise to an iron K line and its associated reflection spectrum which are lagged behind the continuum variability by the light-travel time from the source to the disc. The measured lag timescales in the iron band can be as short as ˜Rg/c, where Rg is the gravitational radius, which is often interpreted as evidence for a very small continuum source close to the event horizon of a rapidly spinning black hole. However, the short lags can also be produced by reflection from more distant material, because the primary photons with no time-delay dilute the time-lags caused by the reprocessed photons. We perform a Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the dilution effect in the X-ray reverberation lags from a half-shell of neutral material placed at 100 Rg from the central source. This gives lags of ˜2 Rg/c, but the iron line is a distinctly narrow feature in the lag-energy plot, whereas the data often show a broader line. We show that both the short lag and the line broadening can be reproduced if the scattering material is outflowing at ˜0.1c. The velocity structure in the wind can also give shifts in the line profile in the lag-energy plot calculated at different frequencies. Hence we propose that the observed broad iron reverberation lags and shifts in profile as a function of frequency of variability can arise from a disc wind at fairly large distances from the X-ray source.

  6. Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

  7. Dynamic models for distributed generation resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morched, A.S. [BPR Energie, Sherbrooke, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Distributed resources can impact the performance of host power systems during both normal and abnormal system conditions. This PowerPoint presentation discussed the use of dynamic models for identifying potential interaction problems between interconnected systems. The models were designed to simulate steady state behaviour as well as transient responses to system disturbances. The distributed generators included directly coupled and electronically coupled generators. The directly coupled generator was driven by wind turbines. Simplified models of grid-side inverters, electronically coupled wind generators and doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs) were presented. The responses of DFIGs to wind variations were evaluated. Synchronous machine and electronically coupled generator responses were compared. The system model components included load models, generators, protection systems, and system equivalents. Frequency responses to islanding events were reviewed. The study demonstrated that accurate simulations are needed to predict the impact of distributed generation resources on the performance of host systems. Advances in distributed generation technology have outpaced the development of models needed for integration studies. tabs., figs.

  8. Review: the environmental status and implications of the nitrate time lag in Europe and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vero, Sara E.; Basu, Nandita B.; Van Meter, Kimberly; Richards, Karl G.; Mellander, Per-Erik; Healy, Mark G.; Fenton, Owen

    2018-02-01

    The efficacy of water quality policies aiming to reduce or prevent nitrate contamination of waterbodies may be constrained by the inherent delay or "time lag" of water and solute transport through unsaturated (soil) and saturated (groundwater) pathways. These delays must be quantified in order to establish realistic deadlines, thresholds and policy expectations, and to design effective best management practices. The objective of this review is to synthesise the current state of research on nitrate-related time lags in both the European and North American environmental and legislative contexts. The durations of time lags have been found to differ according to climatic, pedological, landscape and management scenarios. Elucidation of these driving factors at a watershed scale is essential where water quality is impaired or at risk. Finally, the existence of time lags is increasingly being acknowledged at a policy level and incorporated into the development of environmental legislation. However, the full impact of these time lags is not yet fully understood or appreciated, and continued outreach and education in scientific, public and policy venues is still required.

  9. Detecting PM2.5's Correlations between Neighboring Cities Using a Time-Lagged Cross-Correlation Coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fang; Wang, Lin; Chen, Yuming

    2017-08-31

    In order to investigate the time-dependent cross-correlations of fine particulate (PM2.5) series among neighboring cities in Northern China, in this paper, we propose a new cross-correlation coefficient, the time-lagged q-L dependent height crosscorrelation coefficient (denoted by p q (τ, L)), which incorporates the time-lag factor and the fluctuation amplitude information into the analogous height cross-correlation analysis coefficient. Numerical tests are performed to illustrate that the newly proposed coefficient ρ q (τ, L) can be used to detect cross-correlations between two series with time lags and to identify different range of fluctuations at which two series possess cross-correlations. Applying the new coefficient to analyze the time-dependent cross-correlations of PM2.5 series between Beijing and the three neighboring cities of Tianjin, Zhangjiakou, and Baoding, we find that time lags between the PM2.5 series with larger fluctuations are longer than those between PM2.5 series withsmaller fluctuations. Our analysis also shows that cross-correlations between the PM2.5 series of two neighboring cities are significant and the time lags between two PM2.5 series of neighboring cities are significantly non-zero. These findings providenew scientific support on the view that air pollution in neighboring cities can affect one another not simultaneously but with a time lag.

  10. Hydrologic modelling of the effect of snowmelt and temperature on a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this study, a distributed hydrologic model is used to explore the orographic effects on the snowmelt-runoff using the snowfall-snowmelt routine in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three parameters, namely maximum snowmelt factor, minimum snowmelt factor, and snowpack temperature lag were analysed during ...

  11. Lag synchronization of chaotic systems with time-delayed linear

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the lag synchronization of chaotic systems with time-delayed linear terms via impulsive control is investigated. Based on the stability theory of impulsive delayed differential equations, some sufficient conditions are obtained guaranteeing the synchronized behaviours between two delayed chaotic systems.

  12. A Fixed-Lag Kalman Smoother to Filter Power Line Interference in Electrocardiogram Recordings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warmerdam, G J J; Vullings, R; Schmitt, L; Van Laar, J O E H; Bergmans, J W M

    2017-08-01

    Filtering power line interference (PLI) from electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings can lead to significant distortions of the ECG and mask clinically relevant features in ECG waveform morphology. The objective of this study is to filter PLI from ECG recordings with minimal distortion of the ECG waveform. In this paper, we propose a fixed-lag Kalman smoother with adaptive noise estimation. The performance of this Kalman smoother in filtering PLI is compared to that of a fixed-bandwidth notch filter and several adaptive PLI filters that have been proposed in the literature. To evaluate the performance, we corrupted clean neonatal ECG recordings with various simulated PLI. Furthermore, examples are shown of filtering real PLI from an adult and a fetal ECG recording. The fixed-lag Kalman smoother outperforms other PLI filters in terms of step response settling time (improvements that range from 0.1 to 1 s) and signal-to-noise ratio (improvements that range from 17 to 23 dB). Our fixed-lag Kalman smoother can be used for semi real-time applications with a limited delay of 0.4 s. The fixed-lag Kalman smoother presented in this study outperforms other methods for filtering PLI and leads to minimal distortion of the ECG waveform.

  13. Internet and free press are associated with reduced lags in global outbreak reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAlarnen, Lindsey; Smith, Katherine; Brownstein, John S; Jerde, Christopher

    2014-10-30

    Global outbreak detection and reporting have generally improved for a variety of infectious diseases and geographic regions in recent decades. Nevertheless, lags in outbreak reporting remain a threat to the global human health and economy. In the time between first occurrence of a novel disease incident and public notification of an outbreak, infected individuals have a greater possibility of traveling and spreading the pathogen to other nations. Shortening outbreak reporting lags has the potential to improve global health by preventing local outbreaks from escalating into global epidemics. Reporting lags between the first record and the first public report of an event were calculated for 318 outbreaks occurring 1996-2009. The influence of freedom of the press, Internet usage, per capita health expenditure, and cell phone subscriptions, on the timeliness of outbreak reporting was evaluated. Freer presses and increasing Internet usage correlate with reduced time between the first record of an outbreak and the public report. Increasing Internet usage reduced the expected reporting lag from more than one month in nations without Internet users to one day in those where 75 of 100 people use the Internet. Advances in technology and the emergence of more open and free governments are associated with to improved global infectious disease surveillance.

  14. Partial dust obscuration in active galactic nuclei as a cause of broad-line profile and lag variability, and apparent accretion disc inhomogeneities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskell, C. Martin; Harrington, Peter Z.

    2018-04-01

    The profiles of the broad emission lines of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the time delays in their response to changes in the ionizing continuum ("lags") give information about the structure and kinematics of the inner regions of AGNs. Line profiles are also our main way of estimating the masses of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs). However, the profiles often show ill-understood, asymmetric structure and velocity-dependent lags vary with time. Here we show that partial obscuration of the broad-line region (BLR) by outflowing, compact, dusty clumps produces asymmetries and velocity-dependent lags similar to those observed. Our model explains previously inexplicable changes in the ratios of the hydrogen lines with time and velocity, the lack of correlation of changes in line profiles with variability of the central engine, the velocity dependence of lags, and the change of lags with time. We propose that changes on timescales longer than the light-crossing time do not come from dynamical changes in the BLR, but are a natural result of the effect of outflowing dusty clumps driven by radiation pressure acting on the dust. The motion of these clumps offers an explanation of long-term changes in polarization. The effects of the dust complicate the study of the structure and kinematics of the BLR and the search for sub-parsec SMBH binaries. Partial obscuration of the accretion disc can also provide the local fluctuations in luminosity that can explain sizes deduced from microlensing.

  15. Modeled ground water age distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  16. Suppression of surface-originated gate lag by a dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deen, David A.; Storm, David F.; Scott Katzer, D.; Bass, R.; Meyer, David J.

    2016-08-01

    A dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) architecture is demonstrated that leverages ultra-thin epitaxial layers to suppress surface-related gate lag. Two high-density two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) channels are utilized in an AlN/GaN/AlN/GaN heterostructure wherein the top 2DEG serves as a quasi-equipotential that screens potential fluctuations resulting from distributed surface and interface states. The bottom channel serves as the transistor's modulated channel. Dual-channel AlN/GaN heterostructures were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on free-standing hydride vapor phase epitaxy GaN substrates. HEMTs fabricated with 300 nm long recessed gates demonstrated a gate lag ratio (GLR) of 0.88 with no degradation in drain current after bias stressed in subthreshold. These structures additionally achieved small signal metrics ft/fmax of 27/46 GHz. These performance results are contrasted with the non-recessed gate dual-channel HEMT with a GLR of 0.74 and 82 mA/mm current collapse with ft/fmax of 48/60 GHz.

  17. Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

    2015-12-01

    Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

  18. Definition of a safe zone for antegrade lag screw fixation of fracture of posterior column of the acetabulum by 3D technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaoreng; Zhang, Sheng; Luo, Qiang; Fang, Jintao; Lin, Chaowen; Leung, Frankie; Chen, Bin

    2016-03-01

    The objective of this study was to define a safe zone for antegrade lag screw fixation of fracture of posterior column of the acetabulum using a novel 3D technology. Pelvic CT data of 59 human subjects were obtained to reconstruct three-dimensional (3D) models. The transparency of 3D models was then downgraded along the axial perspective (the view perpendicular to the cross section of the posterior column axis) to find the largest translucent area. The outline of the largest translucent area was drawn on the iliac fossa. The line segments of OA, AB, OC, CD, the angles of OAB and OCD that delineate the safe zone (ABDC) were precisely measured. The resultant line segments OA, AB, OC, CD, and angles OAB and OCD were 28.46mm(13.15-44.97mm), 45.89mm (34.21-62.85mm), 36.34mm (18.68-55.56mm), 53.08mm (38.72-75.79mm), 37.44° (24.32-54.96°) and 55.78° (43.97-79.35°) respectively. This study demonstrates that computer-assisted 3D modelling techniques can aid in the precise definition of the safe zone for antegrade insertion of posterior column lag screws. A full-length lag screw can be inserted into the zone (ABDC), permitting a larger operational error. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Low-rank Quasi-Newton updates for Robust Jacobian lagging in Newton methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Brune, P.

    2013-01-01

    Newton-Krylov methods are standard tools for solving nonlinear problems. A common approach is to 'lag' the Jacobian when assembly or preconditioner setup is computationally expensive, in exchange for some degradation in the convergence rate and robustness. We show that this degradation may be partially mitigated by using the lagged Jacobian as an initial operator in a quasi-Newton method, which applies unassembled low-rank updates to the Jacobian until the next full reassembly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique on problems in glaciology and elasticity. (authors)

  20. New trends in species distribution modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Graham, Catherine H.; Pearman, Peter B.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-01-01

    Species distribution modelling has its origin in the late 1970s when computing capacity was limited. Early work in the field concentrated mostly on the development of methods to model effectively the shape of a species' response to environmental gradients (Austin 1987, Austin et al. 1990). The methodology and its framework were summarized in reviews 10–15 yr ago (Franklin 1995, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000), and these syntheses are still widely used as reference landmarks in the current distribution modelling literature. However, enormous advancements have occurred over the last decade, with hundreds – if not thousands – of publications on species distribution model (SDM) methodologies and their application to a broad set of conservation, ecological and evolutionary questions. With this special issue, originating from the third of a set of specialized SDM workshops (2008 Riederalp) entitled 'The Utility of Species Distribution Models as Tools for Conservation Ecology', we reflect on current trends and the progress achieved over the last decade.

  1. X-ray Time Lags in TeV Blazars X. Chen1,∗ , G. Fossati1, E. Liang1 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We use Monte Carlo/Fokker–Planck simulations to study the. X-ray time lags. Our results show that soft lags will be observed as long as the decay of the flare is dominated by radiative cooling, even when acceleration and cooling time scales are similar. Hard lags can be pro- duced in the presence of a competitive ...

  2. Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Academic Performance : Cross-Lagged Associations from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

    OpenAIRE

    Aaltonen, Sari; Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J.; Kujala, Urho; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

    2016-01-01

    Physical activity and academic performance are positively associated, but the direction of the association is poorly understood. This longitudinal study examined the direction and magnitude of the associations between leisure-time physical activity and academic performance throughout adolescence and young adulthood. The participants were Finnish twins (from 2,859 to 4,190 individuals/study wave) and their families. In a cross-lagged path model, higher academic performance at ages 12, 14 and 1...

  3. Analysis of dual-phase-lag thermal behaviour in layered films with temperature-dependent interface thermal resistance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, K-C

    2005-01-01

    This work analyses theoretically the dual-phase-lag thermal behaviour in two-layered thin films with an interface thermal resistance, which is predicted by the radiation boundary condition model. The effect of the interface thermal resistance on the transmission-reflection phenomenon, induced by a pulsed volumetric source adjacent to the exterior surface of one layer, is investigated. Due to the difference between the two layers in the relaxation times, τ q and τ T , and the nonlinearity of the interfacial boundary condition, complexity is introduced and some mathematical difficulties are involved in solving the present problem. A hybrid application of the Laplace transform method and a control-volume formulation are used along with the linearization technique. The results show that the effect of the thermophysical properties on the behaviour of the energy passing across the interface gradually reduces with increasing interface thermal resistance. The lagging thermal behaviour depends on the magnitude of τ T and τ q more than on the ratio of τ T /τ q

  4. Adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization of different chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Xiangjun; Lu Hongtao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization (AGFPLS) is proposed. → Two uncertain chaos systems are lag synchronized up to a scaling function matrix. → The synchronization speed is sensitively influenced by the control gains. → The AGFPLS scheme is robust against noise perturbation. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel projective synchronization scheme called adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization (AGFPLS) is proposed. In the AGFPLS method, the states of two different chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters are asymptotically lag synchronized up to a desired scaling function matrix. By means of the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller with corresponding parameter update rule is designed for achieving AGFPLS between two diverse chaotic systems and estimating the unknown parameters. This technique is employed to realize AGFPLS between uncertain Lue chaotic system and uncertain Liu chaotic system, and between Chen hyperchaotic system and Lorenz hyperchaotic system with fully uncertain parameters, respectively. Furthermore, AGFPLS between two different uncertain chaotic systems can still be achieved effectively with the existence of noise perturbation. The corresponding numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the validity and robustness of the presented synchronization method.

  5. Time-lagged intraspecific competition in temporally separated cohorts of a generalist insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth E; Murphy, Shannon M

    2018-03-01

    Competition can have far-reaching consequences for insect fitness and dispersion. Time-lagged interspecific competition is known to negatively affect fitness, yet time-lagged intraspecific competition is rarely studied outside of outbreak conditions. We tested the impact of competition between larval cohorts of the western tent caterpillar (Malacosoma californicum) feeding on chokecherry (Prunus virginiana). We reared larvae on host plants that either had or did not have feeding damage from tent caterpillars the previous season to test the bottom-up fitness effects of intraspecific competition. We measured host-plant quality to test potential mechanisms for bottom-up effects and conducted field oviposition surveys to determine if female adult tent caterpillars avoided host plants with evidence of prior tent caterpillar presence. We found that time-lagged intraspecific competition impacted tent caterpillar fitness by reducing female pupal mass, which is a predictor of lifetime fitness. We found that plants that had been fed upon by tent caterpillars the previous season had leaves that were significantly tougher than plants that had not been fed upon by tent caterpillars, which may explain why female tent caterpillars suffered reduced fitness on these plants. Finally, we found that there were fewer tent caterpillar egg masses on plants that had tent caterpillars earlier in the season than plants without tent caterpillars, which suggests that adult females avoid these plants for oviposition. Our results confirm that intraspecific competition occurs among tent caterpillars and suggests that time-lagged intraspecific competition has been overlooked as an important component of insect fitness.

  6. Simple and flexible SAS and SPSS programs for analyzing lag-sequential categorical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, B P

    1999-11-01

    This paper describes simple and flexible programs for analyzing lag-sequential categorical data, using SAS and SPSS. The programs read a stream of codes and produce a variety of lag-sequential statistics, including transitional frequencies, expected transitional frequencies, transitional probabilities, adjusted residuals, z values, Yule's Q values, likelihood ratio tests of stationarity across time and homogeneity across groups or segments, transformed kappas for unidirectional dependence, bidirectional dependence, parallel and nonparallel dominance, and significance levels based on both parametric and randomization tests.

  7. Lag time between onset of symptoms and diagnosis of endometriosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tânia Mara Vieira Santos

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess lag time between onset of symptoms anddiagnosis of endometriosis in patients followed up at the OutpatientsClinic of Endometriosis and Chronic Pelvic Pain, at the Hospitaldo Servidor Público Estadual de São Paulo “Francisco Moratode Oliveira”, from January 2003 to November 2009. Methods:In a retrospective analytical study, a total of 310 women withendometriosis confirmed by surgery and pathological examinationwere evaluated in the period from January 6, 2003 to November29, 2009. Data were gathered through revision of the follow-up visitforms at the specialized outpatients clinic and medical records. Thesoftware Epi-Info 3.3.2 was used for statistical analysis. Results: The mean lag time between onset of symptoms and confirming diagnosisof endometriosis was 46.16 months (3.84 years, ranging from 6 to324 months. Patients aged under 20 years had a mean time untildiagnosis of 2.8 years (33.6 months, range of 6 to 144 months. Inpatients aged 20-29 years, it was 3.51 years (42.18 months, range6-192 months. In those aged 30-40 years, the mean time was 4.14years (49.69 months, range 6-324 months. And in women age over40 years, it was 3.15 years (37.86 months, range 6-216 months.Conclusion: The lag time between onset of symptoms and diagnosisof endometriosis was shorter, as compared to other national andinternational evaluations.

  8. What time-lag for a retraction search on PubMed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decullier, Evelyne; Huot, Laure; Maisonneuve, Hervé

    2014-06-25

    To investigate fraud and errors, scientists have studied cohorts of retraction notices. These researches have been performed using a PubMed search on publication type "retraction of publication" which retrieves the notices of the retractions. We assessed the stability of the indexation of retraction notices over a 15-month period and what was the time-lag to get stability. A search on notices of retraction issued in 2008 was repeated every 3 months during 15 months from February 2011. The first search resulted in 237 notices of retraction. Throughout the study period, 14 discrepancies with the initial search were observed (6%). We found that the number of retraction notices became stable 35 months after the retraction. The time-lag observed in this study has to be taken into account when performing a PubMed search.

  9. Coordinated leading and lagging strand DNA synthesis by using the herpes simplex virus 1 replication complex and minicircle DNA templates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stengel, Gudrun; Kuchta, Robert D

    2011-01-01

    The origin-specific replication of the herpes simplex virus 1 genome requires seven proteins: the helicase-primase (UL5-UL8-UL52), the DNA polymerase (UL30-UL42), the single-strand DNA binding protein (ICP8), and the origin-binding protein (UL9). We reconstituted these proteins, excluding UL9, on synthetic minicircular DNA templates and monitored leading and lagging strand DNA synthesis using the strand-specific incorporation of dTMP and dAMP. Critical features of the assays that led to efficient leading and lagging stand synthesis included high helicase-primase concentrations and a lagging strand template whose sequence resembled that of the viral DNA. Depending on the nature of the minicircle template, the replication complex synthesized leading and lagging strand products at molar ratios varying between 1:1 and 3:1. Lagging strand products (∼0.2 to 0.6 kb) were significantly shorter than leading strand products (∼2 to 10 kb), and conditions that stimulated primer synthesis led to shorter lagging strand products. ICP8 was not essential; however, its presence stimulated DNA synthesis and increased the length of both leading and lagging strand products. Curiously, human DNA polymerase α (p70-p180 or p49-p58-p70-p180), which improves the utilization of RNA primers synthesized by herpesvirus primase on linear DNA templates, had no effect on the replication of the minicircles. The lack of stimulation by polymerase α suggests the existence of a macromolecular assembly that enhances the utilization of RNA primers and may functionally couple leading and lagging strand synthesis. Evidence for functional coupling is further provided by our observations that (i) leading and lagging strand synthesis produce equal amounts of DNA, (ii) leading strand synthesis proceeds faster under conditions that disable primer synthesis on the lagging strand, and (iii) conditions that accelerate helicase-catalyzed DNA unwinding stimulate decoupled leading strand synthesis but not

  10. Treatment of shift work disorder and jet lag.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zee, Phyllis C; Goldstein, Cathy A

    2010-09-01

    With the growth of the 24-hour global marketplace, a substantial proportion of workers are engaged in nontraditional work schedules and frequent jet travel across multiple time zones. Thus, shift work disorder and jet lag are prevalent in our 24/7 society and have been associated with significant health and safety repercussions. In both disorders, treatment strategies are based on promoting good sleep hygiene, improving circadian alignment, and targeting specific symptoms.Treatment of shift work must be tailored to the type of shift. For a night worker, circadian alignment can be achieved with bright light exposure during the shift and avoidance of bright light (with dark or amber sunglasses) toward the latter portion of the work period and during the morning commute home. If insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness are prominent complaints despite behavioral approaches and adequate opportunity for sleep, melatonin may be administered prior to the day sleep period to improve sleep, and alertness during work can be augmented by caffeine and wake-promoting agents.For jet lag, circadian adaptation is suggested only for travel greater than 48 h, with travel east more challenging than travel west. Although advancing sleep and wake times and circadian timing for eastward travel with evening melatonin and morning bright light several days prior to departure can help avoid jet lag at the new destination, this approach may be impractical for many people, Therefore, strategies for treatment at the destination, such as avoidance of early morning light and exposure to late-morning and afternoon light alone or in conjunction with bedtime melatonin, can accelerate re-entrainment following eastward travel. For westward travel, a circadian delay can be achieved after arrival with afternoon and early-evening light with bedtime melatonin.Good sleep hygiene practices, together with the application of circadian principles, can improve sleep quality, alertness, performance, and safety in

  11. Lagged life cycle structures for food products: Their role in global marketing, their determinants and some problems in their estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baadsgaard, Allan; Gede, Mads Peter; Grunert, Klaus G.

    cycles for different product categories may be lagged (type II lag) because changes in economic and other factors will result in demands for different products. Identifying lagged life cycle structures major importance in global marketing of food products. The problems in arriving at such estimates...

  12. Time-Lag in Responses of Birds to Atlantic Forest Fragmentation: Restoration Opportunity and Urgency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uezu, Alexandre; Metzger, Jean Paul

    2016-01-01

    There are few opportunities to evaluate the relative importance of landscape structure and dynamics upon biodiversity, especially in highly fragmented tropical landscapes. Conservation strategies and species risk evaluations often rely exclusively on current aspects of landscape structure, although such limited assumptions are known to be misleading when time-lag responses occur. By relating bird functional-group richness to forest patch size and isolation in ten-year intervals (1956, 1965, 1978, 1984, 1993 and 2003), we revealed that birds with different sensitivity to fragmentation display contrasting responses to landscape dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. For non-sensitive groups, there was no time-lag in response: the recent degree of isolation best explains their variation in richness, which likely relates to these species' flexibility to adapt to changes in landscape structure. However, for sensitive bird groups, the 1978 patch area was the best explanatory variable, providing evidence for a 25-year time-lag in response to habitat reduction. Time-lag was more likely in landscapes that encompass large patches, which can support temporarily the presence of some sensitive species, even when habitat cover is relatively low. These landscapes potentially support the most threatened populations and should be priorities for restoration efforts to avoid further species loss. Although time-lags provide an opportunity to counteract the negative consequences of fragmentation, it also reinforces the urgency of restoration actions. Fragmented landscapes will be depleted of biodiversity if landscape structure is only maintained, and not improved. The urgency of restoration action may be even higher in landscapes where habitat loss and fragmentation history is older and where no large fragment remained to act temporarily as a refuge.

  13. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  14. A distributed computing model for telemetry data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Matthew R.; Scott, Kevin L.; Weismuller, Steven P.

    1994-05-01

    We present a new approach to distributing processed telemetry data among spacecraft flight controllers within the control centers at NASA's Johnson Space Center. This approach facilitates the development of application programs which integrate spacecraft-telemetered data and ground-based synthesized data, then distributes this information to flight controllers for analysis and decision-making. The new approach combines various distributed computing models into one hybrid distributed computing model. The model employs both client-server and peer-to-peer distributed computing models cooperating to provide users with information throughout a diverse operations environment. Specifically, it provides an attractive foundation upon which we are building critical real-time monitoring and control applications, while simultaneously lending itself to peripheral applications in playback operations, mission preparations, flight controller training, and program development and verification. We have realized the hybrid distributed computing model through an information sharing protocol. We shall describe the motivations that inspired us to create this protocol, along with a brief conceptual description of the distributed computing models it employs. We describe the protocol design in more detail, discussing many of the program design considerations and techniques we have adopted. Finally, we describe how this model is especially suitable for supporting the implementation of distributed expert system applications.

  15. A distributed computing model for telemetry data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Matthew R.; Scott, Kevin L.; Weismuller, Steven P.

    1994-01-01

    We present a new approach to distributing processed telemetry data among spacecraft flight controllers within the control centers at NASA's Johnson Space Center. This approach facilitates the development of application programs which integrate spacecraft-telemetered data and ground-based synthesized data, then distributes this information to flight controllers for analysis and decision-making. The new approach combines various distributed computing models into one hybrid distributed computing model. The model employs both client-server and peer-to-peer distributed computing models cooperating to provide users with information throughout a diverse operations environment. Specifically, it provides an attractive foundation upon which we are building critical real-time monitoring and control applications, while simultaneously lending itself to peripheral applications in playback operations, mission preparations, flight controller training, and program development and verification. We have realized the hybrid distributed computing model through an information sharing protocol. We shall describe the motivations that inspired us to create this protocol, along with a brief conceptual description of the distributed computing models it employs. We describe the protocol design in more detail, discussing many of the program design considerations and techniques we have adopted. Finally, we describe how this model is especially suitable for supporting the implementation of distributed expert system applications.

  16. Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Abdul Wajid

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

  17. Sample sizes and model comparison metrics for species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    B.B. Hanberry; H.S. He; D.C. Dey

    2012-01-01

    Species distribution models use small samples to produce continuous distribution maps. The question of how small a sample can be to produce an accurate model generally has been answered based on comparisons to maximum sample sizes of 200 observations or fewer. In addition, model comparisons often are made with the kappa statistic, which has become controversial....

  18. Mathematical Models for Room Air Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.

    1982-01-01

    A number of different models on the air distribution in rooms are introduced. This includes the throw model, a model on penetration length of a cold wall jet and a model for maximum velocity in the dimensioning of an air distribution system in highly loaded rooms and shows that the amount of heat...... removed from the room at constant penetration length is proportional to the cube of the velocities in the occupied zone. It is also shown that a large number of diffusers increases the amount of heat which may be removed without affecting the thermal conditions. Control strategies for dual duct and single...... duct systems are given and the paper is concluded by mentioning a computer-based prediction method which gives the velocity and temperature distribution in the whole room....

  19. The burden of ambient air pollution on years of life lost in Wuxi, China, 2012-2015: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jingying; Zhang, Xuhui; Zhang, Xi; Dong, Mei; Wu, Jiamei; Dong, Yunqiu; Chen, Rong; Ding, Xinliang; Huang, Chunhua; Zhang, Qi; Zhou, Weijie

    2017-05-01

    Ambient air pollution ranks high among the risk factors that increase the global burden of disease. Previous studies focused on assessing mortality risk and were sparsely performed in populous developing countries with deteriorating environments. We conducted a time-series study to evaluate the air pollution-associated years of life lost (YLL) and mortality risk and to identify potential modifiers relating to the season and demographic characteristics. Using linear (for YLL) and Poisson (for mortality) regression models and controlling for time-varying factors, we found that an interquartile range (IQR) increase in a three-day average cumulative (lag 0-2 day) concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 and SO 2  corresponded to increases in YLL of 12.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.98-21.20), 13.69 (95% CI: 3.32-24.07), 26.95 (95% CI: 13.99-39.91) and 24.39 (95% CI: 8.62-40.15) years, respectively, and to percent increases in mortality of 1.34% (95% CI: 0.67-2.01%), 1.56% (95% CI: 0.80-2.33%), 3.36% (95% CI: 2.39-4.33%) and 2.39% (95% CI: 1.24-3.55%), respectively. Among the specific causes of death, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were positively associated with gaseous pollutants (NO 2 and SO 2 ), and diabetes was positively correlated with NO 2 (in terms of the mortality risk). The effects of air pollutants were more pronounced in the cool season than in the warm season. The elderly (>65 years) and females were more vulnerable to air pollution. Studying effect estimates and their modifications by using YLL to detect premature death should support implementing health risk assessments, identifying susceptible groups and guiding policy-making and resource allocation according to specific local conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. High frequency analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Nijman, T.E.

    1995-01-01

    High frequency data are often observed at irregular intervals, which complicates the analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets. Frequently, estimators have been used that are based on observations at regular intervals, which are adapted to the irregular observations case by

  1. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  2. Suppression of surface-originated gate lag by a dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor architecture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deen, David A.; Storm, David F.; Scott Katzer, D.; Bass, R.; Meyer, David J.

    2016-01-01

    A dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) architecture is demonstrated that leverages ultra-thin epitaxial layers to suppress surface-related gate lag. Two high-density two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) channels are utilized in an AlN/GaN/AlN/GaN heterostructure wherein the top 2DEG serves as a quasi-equipotential that screens potential fluctuations resulting from distributed surface and interface states. The bottom channel serves as the transistor's modulated channel. Dual-channel AlN/GaN heterostructures were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on free-standing hydride vapor phase epitaxy GaN substrates. HEMTs fabricated with 300 nm long recessed gates demonstrated a gate lag ratio (GLR) of 0.88 with no degradation in drain current after bias stressed in subthreshold. These structures additionally achieved small signal metrics f_t/f_m_a_x of 27/46 GHz. These performance results are contrasted with the non-recessed gate dual-channel HEMT with a GLR of 0.74 and 82 mA/mm current collapse with f_t/f_m_a_x of 48/60 GHz.

  3. Suppression of surface-originated gate lag by a dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deen, David A., E-mail: david.deen@alumni.nd.edu; Storm, David F.; Scott Katzer, D.; Bass, R.; Meyer, David J. [Naval Research Laboratory, Electronics Science and Technology Division, Washington, DC 20375 (United States)

    2016-08-08

    A dual-channel AlN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) architecture is demonstrated that leverages ultra-thin epitaxial layers to suppress surface-related gate lag. Two high-density two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) channels are utilized in an AlN/GaN/AlN/GaN heterostructure wherein the top 2DEG serves as a quasi-equipotential that screens potential fluctuations resulting from distributed surface and interface states. The bottom channel serves as the transistor's modulated channel. Dual-channel AlN/GaN heterostructures were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on free-standing hydride vapor phase epitaxy GaN substrates. HEMTs fabricated with 300 nm long recessed gates demonstrated a gate lag ratio (GLR) of 0.88 with no degradation in drain current after bias stressed in subthreshold. These structures additionally achieved small signal metrics f{sub t}/f{sub max} of 27/46 GHz. These performance results are contrasted with the non-recessed gate dual-channel HEMT with a GLR of 0.74 and 82 mA/mm current collapse with f{sub t}/f{sub max} of 48/60 GHz.

  4. [Odontoid bending stiffness after anterior fixation with a single lag screw: biomechanical study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchvald, P; Čapek, L; Barsa, P

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The aim of the experiment was to compare the bending stiffness of an intact odontoid process with bending stiffness after its simulated type II fracture was fixed with a single lag screw. The experiment was done with a desire to answer the question of whether a single osteosynthetic screw is sufficient for good fixation of a type II odontoid fracture. MATERIAL AND METHODS The C2 vertebrae of six cadavers were used. With simultaneous measurement of odontoid bending stiffness, the occurrence of a fracture (type IIA, Grauer's modification of the Anderson- D'Alonzo classification) was simulated using action exerted by a tearing machine in the direction perpendicular to the odontoid axis. Each odontoid fracture was subsequently treated by direct osteosynthesis with a single lag screw inserted in the axial direction by a standard surgical procedure in order to provide conditions similar to those achieved by routine surgical management. The treated odontoid process was subsequently subjected to the same tearing machine loading as applied to it at the start of the experiment. The bending stiffness measured was then compared with that found before the fracture occurred. The results were statistically evaluated by the t-test for paired samples at the level of significance α = 0.05. RESULTS The average value of bending stiffness for odontoid processes of intact vertebrae at the moment of fracture occurrence was 318.3 N/mm. After single axial lag screw fixation of the fracture, the average bending stiffness for the odontoid processes treated was 331.3 N/mm. DISCUSSION Higher values of bending stiffness after screw fixation were found in all specimens and, in comparison with the values recorded before simulated fractures, the increase was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS The results of our measurements suggest that the single lag screw fixation of a type IIA odontoid fracture will provide better stability for the fracture fragment-C2 body complex on

  5. TIDAL FRICTION AND TIDAL LAGGING. APPLICABILITY LIMITATIONS OF A POPULAR FORMULA FOR THE TIDAL TORQUE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efroimsky, Michael; Makarov, Valeri V.

    2013-01-01

    Tidal torques play a key role in rotational dynamics of celestial bodies. They govern these bodies' tidal despinning and also participate in the subtle process of entrapment of these bodies into spin-orbit resonances. This makes tidal torques directly relevant to the studies of habitability of planets and their moons. Our work begins with an explanation of how friction and lagging should be built into the theory of bodily tides. Although much of this material can be found in various publications, a short but self-consistent summary on the topic has been lacking in the hitherto literature, and we are filling the gap. After these preparations, we address a popular concise formula for the tidal torque, which is often used in the literature, for planets or stars. We explain why the derivation of this expression, offered in the paper by Goldreich and in the books by Kaula (Equation (4.5.29)) and Murray and Dermott (Equation (4.159)), implicitly sets the time lag to be frequency independent. Accordingly, the ensuing expression for the torque can be applied only to bodies having a very special (and very hypothetical) rheology which makes the time lag frequency independent, i.e., the same for all Fourier modes in the spectrum of tide. This expression for the torque should not be used for bodies of other rheologies. Specifically, the expression cannot be combined with an extra assertion of the geometric lag being constant, because at finite eccentricities the said assumption is incompatible with the constant-time-lag condition.

  6. TIDAL FRICTION AND TIDAL LAGGING. APPLICABILITY LIMITATIONS OF A POPULAR FORMULA FOR THE TIDAL TORQUE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroimsky, Michael; Makarov, Valeri V., E-mail: michael.efroimsky@usno.navy.mil, E-mail: vvm@usno.navy.mil [US Naval Observatory, Washington, DC 20392 (United States)

    2013-02-10

    Tidal torques play a key role in rotational dynamics of celestial bodies. They govern these bodies' tidal despinning and also participate in the subtle process of entrapment of these bodies into spin-orbit resonances. This makes tidal torques directly relevant to the studies of habitability of planets and their moons. Our work begins with an explanation of how friction and lagging should be built into the theory of bodily tides. Although much of this material can be found in various publications, a short but self-consistent summary on the topic has been lacking in the hitherto literature, and we are filling the gap. After these preparations, we address a popular concise formula for the tidal torque, which is often used in the literature, for planets or stars. We explain why the derivation of this expression, offered in the paper by Goldreich and in the books by Kaula (Equation (4.5.29)) and Murray and Dermott (Equation (4.159)), implicitly sets the time lag to be frequency independent. Accordingly, the ensuing expression for the torque can be applied only to bodies having a very special (and very hypothetical) rheology which makes the time lag frequency independent, i.e., the same for all Fourier modes in the spectrum of tide. This expression for the torque should not be used for bodies of other rheologies. Specifically, the expression cannot be combined with an extra assertion of the geometric lag being constant, because at finite eccentricities the said assumption is incompatible with the constant-time-lag condition.

  7. Comparative analysis of employment dynamics in leading and lagging rural regions of the EU, 1980-1997.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terluin, I.J.; Post, J.H.; Sjöström, Å.

    1999-01-01

    In this study a comparative analysis of factors hampering and encouraging the development of employment in 9 leading and 9 lagging regions in the EU during the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s is made. Derived from this comparative analysis, some lessons, which leading and lagging rural regions

  8. System of delay difference equations with continuous time with lag function between two known functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajnalka Péics

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The asymptotic behavior of solutions of the system of difference equations with continuous time and lag function between two known real functions is studied. The cases when the lag function is between two linear delay functions, between two power delay functions and between two constant delay functions are observed and illustrated by examples. The asymptotic estimates of solutions of the considered system are obtained.

  9. Job insecurity and work-family conflict in teachers in Sweden: Examining their relations with longitudinal cross-lagged modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Anne; Näswall, Katharina; Lindfors, Petra; Sverke, Magnus

    2015-06-01

    Job insecurity and work-family conflict are increasingly prevalent in contemporary working life and numerous studies have documented their antecedents and negative consequences. The present study used longitudinal questionnaire data collected among teachers in Sweden to test the direction of the relation between job insecurity and work-family conflict using cross-lagged modeling. Multiple-group comparisons were conducted to account for the skewed gender composition in the teachers' group. After controlling for baseline levels of job insecurity, work-family conflict, and four potential confounders (age, children under 12 living at home, university education, and relationship status), we found that the reciprocal relationship between job insecurity and work-family conflict over a 1-year time period fitted the data best for the men. For women, however, only the auto regression coefficients were significant. The results provide some empirical support for gender differences in the relation between job insecurity and work-family conflict. Moreover, this study partially supports theoretical assumptions suggesting that job insecurity and work-family conflict influence each other. © 2015 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  10. Development and validation of a short-lag spatial coherence theory for photoacoustic imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Michelle T.; Lediju Bell, Muyinatu A.

    2018-02-01

    We previously derived spatial coherence theory to be implemented for studying theoretical properties of ShortLag Spatial Coherence (SLSC) beamforming applied to photoacoustic images. In this paper, our newly derived theoretical equation is evaluated to generate SLSC images of a point target and a 1.2 mm diameter target and corresponding lateral profiles. We compared SLSC images simulated solely based on our theory to SLSC images created after beamforming acoustic channel data from k-Wave simulations of 1.2 mm-diameter disc target. This process was repeated for a point target and the full width at half the maximum signal amplitudes were measured to estimate the resolution of each imaging system. Resolution as a function of lag was comparable for the first 10% of the receive aperture (i.e., the short-lag region), after which resolution measurements diverged by a maximum of 1 mm between the two types of simulated images. These results indicate the potential for both simulation methods to be utilized as independent resources to study coherence-based photoacoustic beamformers when imaging point-like targets.

  11. Responses to positive affect, life satisfaction and self-esteem: A cross-lagged panel analysis during middle adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Baya, Diego; Mendoza, Ramon; Gaspar, Tania; Gomes, Paulo

    2018-05-11

    During middle adolescence, elevated stress and a greater presence of psychological disorders have been documented. The research has paid little attention to the regulation of positive affective states. Fredrickson's broaden-and-build theory suggests that cultivating positive emotions helps to build resources that boost well-being. The current research aimed to examine the longitudinal associations between responses to positive affect (emotion-focused positive rumination, self-focused positive rumination, and dampening) and psychological adjustment (self-esteem and life satisfaction) during middle adolescence. A longitudinal study with two waves separated by one year was conducted, assessing 977 adolescents (M = 13.81, SD = 0.79; 51.5% boys) with self-report measures. A cross-lagged panel analysis was performed by including within the same model the relationships between all of the variables in the two assessment points. The results indicated cross-lagged positive relationships of self-focused positive rumination with both self-esteem and life satisfaction, while dampening showed a negative cross-lagged relationship with self-esteem. Moreover, higher self-esteem predicted more emotion-focused positive rumination, and more dampening predicted lower life satisfaction. Thus, the use of adaptive responses to positive affect and a better psychological adjustment were found to be prospectively interrelated at the one-year follow-up during middle adolescence. The discussion argues for the need to implement programmes to promote more adaptive responses to positive affect to enhance psychological adjustment in the adolescent transition to adulthood. © 2018 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Alcohol and drug treatment involvement, 12-step attendance and abstinence: 9-year cross-lagged analysis of adults in an integrated health plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witbrodt, Jane; Ye, Yu; Bond, Jason; Chi, Felicia; Weisner, Constance; Mertens, Jennifer

    2014-04-01

    This study explored causal relationships between post-treatment 12-step attendance and abstinence at multiple data waves and examined indirect paths leading from treatment initiation to abstinence 9-years later. Adults (N = 1945) seeking help for alcohol or drug use disorders from integrated healthcare organization outpatient treatment programs were followed at 1-, 5-, 7- and 9-years. Path modeling with cross-lagged partial regression coefficients was used to test causal relationships. Cross-lagged paths indicated greater 12-step attendance during years 1 and 5 and were casually related to past-30-day abstinence at years 5 and 7 respectfully, suggesting 12-step attendance leads to abstinence (but not vice versa) well into the post-treatment period. Some gender differences were found in these relationships. Three significant time-lagged, indirect paths emerged linking treatment duration to year-9 abstinence. Conclusions are discussed in the context of other studies using longitudinal designs. For outpatient clients, results reinforce the value of lengthier treatment duration and 12-step attendance in year 1. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Utilization of the Bridging Strategy for the Development of New Drugs in Oncology to Avoid Drug Lag.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogure, Seiji; Koyama, Nobuyuki; Hidaka, Shinji

    2017-11-01

    Global trial (GT) strategy and bridging (BG) strategy are currently the main clinical development strategies of oncology drugs in Japan, but the relationship between development style and drug lag and how the bridging strategy has contributed to the solution of drug lag have not been clear. We investigated the potential factors that influenced submission lag (SL), and also compared the differences in SL among early-initiation BG strategy, late-initiation BG strategy, and GT strategy. A stepwise linear regression analysis identified the potential factors that shorten SL: development start lag and development style. Comparison of the differences in SL among the strategies also indicated that the SL in the GT strategy and that in the early-initiation BG strategy were significantly shorter than that in the late-initiation BG strategy. The findings in our study suggest that the late-initiation BG strategy may not contribute to shortening drug lag. Because the number of late-initiation BG studies has not decreased, we propose first that pharmaceutical companies should initiate clinical development as early as possible in Japan so that they can choose the GT strategy as a first option at the next step, and second when they cannot choose the GT strategy after investigating differences in exposure between Japanese and non-Japanese in a phase 1 study, they should select the early BG strategy to avoid future drug lag. It is also important for the regulatory authorities to provide reasonable guidance to have a positive impact on strategic decisions, even for foreign-capital companies. © 2017, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

  14. How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Stephan Gritti

    Full Text Available Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs. However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

  15. Distinct roles of two ceramide synthases, CaLag1p and CaLac1p, in the morphogenesis of Candida albicans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheon, Seon Ah; Bal, Jyotiranjan; Song, Yunkyoung

    2012-01-01

    p) and Lac1p (CaLac1p) are functionally distinct. Lack of CaLag1p, but not CaLac1p, caused severe defects in the growth and hyphal morphogenesis of C. albicans. Deletion of CaLAG1 decreased expression of the hypha-specific HWP1 and ECE1 genes. Moreover, overexpression of CaLAG1 induced pseudohyphal...... growth in this organism under non-hypha-inducing conditions, suggesting that CaLag1p is necessary for relaying signals to induce hypha-specific gene expression. Analysis of ceramide and sphingolipid composition revealed that CaLag1p predominantly synthesizes ceramides with C24:0/C26:0 fatty acid moieties...

  16. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for three redshift distributions of long gamma-ray bursts in the Swift Era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Yunming; Lu Tan

    2009-01-01

    We investigate redshift distributions of three long burst samples, with the first sample containing 131 long bursts with observed redshifts, the second including 220 long bursts with pseudo-redshifts calculated by the variability-luminosity relation, and the third including 1194 long bursts with pseudo-redshifts calculated by the lag-luminosity relation, respectively. In the redshift range 0-1 the Kolmogorov-Smirnov probability of the observed redshift distribution and that of the variability-luminosity relation is large. In the redshift ranges 1-2, 2-3, 3-6.3 and 0-37, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov probabilities of the redshift distribution from lag-luminosity relation and the observed redshift distribution are also large. For the GRBs, which appear both in the two pseudo-redshift burst samples, the KS probability of the pseudo-redshift distribution from the lag-luminosity relation and the observed reshift distribution is 0.447, which is very large. Based on these results, some conclusions are drawn: i) the V-L iso relation might be more believable than the τ-L iso relation in low redshift ranges and the τ-L iso relation might be more real than the V-Liso relation in high redshift ranges; ii) if we do not consider the redshift ranges, the τ-L iso relation might be more physical and intrinsical than the V-L i so relation. (research papers)

  17. Assessing the dream-lag effect for REM and NREM stage 2 dreams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagrove, Mark; Fouquet, Nathalie C; Henley-Einion, Josephine A; Pace-Schott, Edward F; Davies, Anna C; Neuschaffer, Jennifer L; Turnbull, Oliver H

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates evidence, from dream reports, for memory consolidation during sleep. It is well-known that events and memories from waking life can be incorporated into dreams. These incorporations can be a literal replication of what occurred in waking life, or, more often, they can be partial or indirect. Two types of temporal relationship have been found to characterize the time of occurrence of a daytime event and the reappearance or incorporation of its features in a dream. These temporal relationships are referred to as the day-residue or immediate incorporation effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring on the immediately preceding day, and the dream-lag effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring 5-7 days prior to the dream. Previous work on the dream-lag effect has used spontaneous home recalled dream reports, which can be from Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (REM) and from non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (NREM). This study addresses whether the dream-lag effect occurs only for REM sleep dreams, or for both REM and NREM stage 2 (N2) dreams. 20 participants kept a daily diary for over a week before sleeping in the sleep laboratory for 2 nights. REM and N2 dreams collected in the laboratory were transcribed and each participant rated the level of correspondence between every dream report and every diary record. The dream-lag effect was found for REM but not N2 dreams. Further analysis indicated that this result was not due to N2 dream reports being shorter, in terms of number of words, than the REM dream reports. These results provide evidence for a 7-day sleep-dependent non-linear memory consolidation process that is specific to REM sleep, and accord with proposals for the importance of REM sleep to emotional memory consolidation.

  18. Assessing the Dream-Lag Effect for REM and NREM Stage 2 Dreams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagrove, Mark; Fouquet, Nathalie C.; Henley-Einion, Josephine A.; Pace-Schott, Edward F.; Davies, Anna C.; Neuschaffer, Jennifer L.; Turnbull, Oliver H.

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates evidence, from dream reports, for memory consolidation during sleep. It is well-known that events and memories from waking life can be incorporated into dreams. These incorporations can be a literal replication of what occurred in waking life, or, more often, they can be partial or indirect. Two types of temporal relationship have been found to characterize the time of occurrence of a daytime event and the reappearance or incorporation of its features in a dream. These temporal relationships are referred to as the day-residue or immediate incorporation effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring on the immediately preceding day, and the dream-lag effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring 5–7 days prior to the dream. Previous work on the dream-lag effect has used spontaneous home recalled dream reports, which can be from Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (REM) and from non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (NREM). This study addresses whether the dream-lag effect occurs only for REM sleep dreams, or for both REM and NREM stage 2 (N2) dreams. 20 participants kept a daily diary for over a week before sleeping in the sleep laboratory for 2 nights. REM and N2 dreams collected in the laboratory were transcribed and each participant rated the level of correspondence between every dream report and every diary record. The dream-lag effect was found for REM but not N2 dreams. Further analysis indicated that this result was not due to N2 dream reports being shorter, in terms of number of words, than the REM dream reports. These results provide evidence for a 7-day sleep-dependent non-linear memory consolidation process that is specific to REM sleep, and accord with proposals for the importance of REM sleep to emotional memory consolidation. PMID:22046336

  19. Assessing the dream-lag effect for REM and NREM stage 2 dreams.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Blagrove

    Full Text Available This study investigates evidence, from dream reports, for memory consolidation during sleep. It is well-known that events and memories from waking life can be incorporated into dreams. These incorporations can be a literal replication of what occurred in waking life, or, more often, they can be partial or indirect. Two types of temporal relationship have been found to characterize the time of occurrence of a daytime event and the reappearance or incorporation of its features in a dream. These temporal relationships are referred to as the day-residue or immediate incorporation effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring on the immediately preceding day, and the dream-lag effect, where there is the reappearance of features from events occurring 5-7 days prior to the dream. Previous work on the dream-lag effect has used spontaneous home recalled dream reports, which can be from Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (REM and from non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep (NREM. This study addresses whether the dream-lag effect occurs only for REM sleep dreams, or for both REM and NREM stage 2 (N2 dreams. 20 participants kept a daily diary for over a week before sleeping in the sleep laboratory for 2 nights. REM and N2 dreams collected in the laboratory were transcribed and each participant rated the level of correspondence between every dream report and every diary record. The dream-lag effect was found for REM but not N2 dreams. Further analysis indicated that this result was not due to N2 dream reports being shorter, in terms of number of words, than the REM dream reports. These results provide evidence for a 7-day sleep-dependent non-linear memory consolidation process that is specific to REM sleep, and accord with proposals for the importance of REM sleep to emotional memory consolidation.

  20. An improved measurement system for FOG pure lag time with no changing of FOG work status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Yang, J. H.; Zhou, Y. L.; Shu, X. W.

    2018-05-01

    The minimum pure lag time is an important factor for characterizing the dynamic performance of fiber optical gyroscope. It is defined as the time duration from the reception of velocity-shock signal to the output of corresponding fiber-optic gyroscope data. Many engineering projects have required for this index specifically, so the measurement of the minimum pure lag time is highly demanded. In typically measurement system, the work status of tested FOG has to be changed. In this work, a FOG pure lag time measurement system without changing the work status of the FOG has been demonstrated. During the operation of this test system, the impact structure generated a shock towards the FOG, and the pure lag time was measured through data processing analysis. The design scheme and test principle have been researched and analyzed in detail. And a prototype has been developed and used for experiment successfully. This measurement system can realize a measurement accuracy of better than ±3 μs and a system resolution of 108.6ns.

  1. Modeling steam pressure under martian lava flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dundas, Colin M.; Keszthelyi, Laszlo P.

    2013-01-01

    Rootless cones on Mars are a valuable indicator of past interactions between lava and water. However, the details of the lava–water interactions are not fully understood, limiting the ability to use these features to infer new information about past water on Mars. We have developed a model for the pressurization of a dry layer of porous regolith by melting and boiling ground ice in the shallow subsurface. This model builds on previous models of lava cooling and melting of subsurface ice. We find that for reasonable regolith properties and ice depths of decimeters, explosive pressures can be reached. However, the energy stored within such lags is insufficient to excavate thick flows unless they draw steam from a broader region than the local eruption site. These results indicate that lag pressurization can drive rootless cone formation under favorable circumstances, but in other instances molten fuel–coolant interactions are probably required. We use the model results to consider a range of scenarios for rootless cone formation in Athabasca Valles. Pressure buildup by melting and boiling ice under a desiccated lag is possible in some locations, consistent with the expected distribution of ice implanted from atmospheric water vapor. However, it is uncertain whether such ice has existed in the vicinity of Athabasca Valles in recent history. Plausible alternative sources include surface snow or an aqueous flood shortly before the emplacement of the lava flow.

  2. A study of the cross-correlation and time lag in black hole X-ray binary XTE J1859+226

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Songpeng; Ding, Guoqiang; Li, Zhibing; Lei, Yajuan; Yuen, Rai; Qu, Jinlu

    2017-07-01

    With Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data, we systematically study the cross-correlation and time lag in all spectral states of black hole X-ray binary (BHXB) XTE J1859+226 in detail during its entire 1999-2000 outburst that lasted for 166 days. Anti-correlations and positive correlations and their respective soft and hard X-ray lags are only detected in the first 100 days of the outburst when the luminosity is high. This suggests that the cross-correlations may be related to high luminosity. Positive correlations are detected in every state of XTE J1859+226, viz., hard state, hard-intermediate state (HIMS), soft-intermediate state (SIMS) and soft state. However, anti-correlations are only detected in HIMS and SIMS, anti-correlated hard lags are only detected in SIMS, while anti-correlated soft lags are detected in both HIMS and SIMS. Moreover, the ratio of the observations with anti-correlated soft lags to hard lags detected in XTE J1859+226 is significantly different from that in neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries (NS LMXBs). So far, anti-correlations are never detected in the soft state of BHXBs but detected in every branch or state of NS LMXBs. This may be due to the origin of soft seed photons in BHXBs is confined to the accretion disk and, for NS LMXBs, from both accretion disk and the surface of the NS. We notice that the timescale of anti-correlated time lags detected in XTE J1859+226 is similar with that of other BHXBs and NS LMXBs. We suggest that anti-correlated soft lag detected in BHXB may result from fluctuation in the accretion disk as well as NS LMXB.

  3. Mathematical Creativity and Mathematical Aptitude: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, Tarun Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Cross-lagged panel correlation (CLPC) analysis has been used to identify causal relationships between mathematical creativity and mathematical aptitude. For this study, 480 8th standard students were selected through a random cluster technique from 9 intermediate and high schools of Varanasi, India. Mathematical creativity and mathematical…

  4. Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for the statistical prediction of flash floods and real-time forecasting. This paper focuses on a karstic basin in the South of France and proposes a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model, coherent with the poor knowledge of both evaporative and underground fluxes. The model combines a SCS runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The efficiency of the model is discussed not only to satisfactorily simulate floods but also to get powerful relationships between the initial condition of the model and various predictors of the initial wetness state of the basin, such as the base flow, the Hu2 index from the Meteo-France SIM model and the piezometric levels of the aquifer. The advantage of using meteorological radar rainfall in flood modelling is also assessed. Model calibration proved to be satisfactory by using an hourly time step with Nash criterion values, ranging between 0.66 and 0.94 for eighteen of the twenty-one selected events. The radar rainfall inputs significantly improved the simulations or the assessment of the initial condition of the model for 5 events at the beginning of autumn, mostly in September–October (mean improvement of Nash is 0.09; correction in the initial condition ranges from −205 to 124 mm, but were less efficient for the events at the end of autumn. In this period, the weak vertical extension of the precipitation system and the low altitude of the 0 °C isotherm could affect the efficiency of radar measurements due to the distance between the basin and the radar (~60 km. The model initial condition S is correlated with the three tested predictors (R2 > 0.6. The interpretation of the model suggests that groundwater does not affect the first peaks of the flood, but can strongly impact subsequent peaks in the case of a multi-storm event. Because this kind of model is based on a limited

  5. Empirical Investigation of External Debt-Growth Nexus in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Empirical Investigation of External Debt-Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. ... distributed lag (PARDL) model and panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (PNARDL) model to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth using a panel dataset of 22 countries from 1985 to 2015. Its results ...

  6. Measurement error, time lag, unmeasured confounding: Considerations for longitudinal estimation of the effect of a mediator in randomised clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, K A; Chalder, T; White, P D; Sharpe, M; Pickles, A

    2018-06-01

    Clinical trials are expensive and time-consuming and so should also be used to study how treatments work, allowing for the evaluation of theoretical treatment models and refinement and improvement of treatments. These treatment processes can be studied using mediation analysis. Randomised treatment makes some of the assumptions of mediation models plausible, but the mediator-outcome relationship could remain subject to bias. In addition, mediation is assumed to be a temporally ordered longitudinal process, but estimation in most mediation studies to date has been cross-sectional and unable to explore this assumption. This study used longitudinal structural equation modelling of mediator and outcome measurements from the PACE trial of rehabilitative treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome (ISRCTN 54285094) to address these issues. In particular, autoregressive and simplex models were used to study measurement error in the mediator, different time lags in the mediator-outcome relationship, unmeasured confounding of the mediator and outcome, and the assumption of a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time. Results showed that allowing for measurement error and unmeasured confounding were important. Contemporaneous rather than lagged mediator-outcome effects were more consistent with the data, possibly due to the wide spacing of measurements. Assuming a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time increased precision.

  7. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-01-01

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD and R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P and CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD and R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment

  8. Water Distribution and Removal Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Deng; N. Chipman; E.L. Hardin

    2005-08-26

    The design of the Yucca Mountain high level radioactive waste repository depends on the performance of the engineered barrier system (EBS). To support the total system performance assessment (TSPA), the Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport Process Model Report (EBS PMR) is developed to describe the thermal, mechanical, chemical, hydrological, biological, and radionuclide transport processes within the emplacement drifts, which includes the following major analysis/model reports (AMRs): (1) EBS Water Distribution and Removal (WD&R) Model; (2) EBS Physical and Chemical Environment (P&CE) Model; (3) EBS Radionuclide Transport (EBS RNT) Model; and (4) EBS Multiscale Thermohydrologic (TH) Model. Technical information, including data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documents will be provided to defend the applicability of these models for their intended purpose of evaluating the postclosure performance of the Yucca Mountain repository system. The WD&R model ARM is important to the site recommendation. Water distribution and removal represents one component of the overall EBS. Under some conditions, liquid water will seep into emplacement drifts through fractures in the host rock and move generally downward, potentially contacting waste packages. After waste packages are breached by corrosion, some of this seepage water will contact the waste, dissolve or suspend radionuclides, and ultimately carry radionuclides through the EBS to the near-field host rock. Lateral diversion of liquid water within the drift will occur at the inner drift surface, and more significantly from the operation of engineered structures such as drip shields and the outer surface of waste packages. If most of the seepage flux can be diverted laterally and removed from the drifts before contacting the wastes, the release of radionuclides from the EBS can be controlled, resulting in a proportional reduction in dose release at the accessible environment. The purposes

  9. The time lag between introduction and escape from cultivation of alien woody plant species decreases with polyploidization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brändle

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The time between introduction of an alien species and escape from cultivation shows considerable variation among species. One hypothesis to explain this variation of the time lag invokes the evolution of genotypes adapted to the conditions of the new environment. Here, we analyse the variation in time lags among 53 alien woody plant species in Germany. Accounting for the effects of time since introduction, growth form (trees versus shrubs, biogeography and taxonomic isolation (presence or absence of a native congener in the adventive area we found that the time lag decreases with increasing polyploidization. By contrast, the haploid chromosome number was not significantly related to the time lag. These results provide evidence for the hypothesis that recent genome duplication events are important for a fast escape from cultivation of an alien woody plant species. We suggest that a large number of duplicated chromosomes increase the partitioning of the genome and hence the average rate of recombination between loci facilitating the formation of adaptive genotypes.

  10. Determination of Watershed Lag Equation for Philippine Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipriano, F. R.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Uichanco, C.; Mendoza, J.; Sabio, G.; Punay, K. N.; Oquindo, M. R.; Horritt, M.

    2014-12-01

    Widespread flooding is a major problem in the Philippines. The country experiences heavy amount of rainfall throughout the year and several areas are prone to flood hazards because of its unique topography. Human casualties and destruction of infrastructure are some of the damages caused by flooding and the country's government has undertaken various efforts to mitigate these hazards. One of the solutions was to create flood hazard maps of different floodplains and use them to predict the possible catastrophic results of different rain scenarios. To produce these maps, different types of data were needed and part of that is calculating hydrological components to come up with an accurate output. This paper presents how an important parameter, the time-to-peak of the watershed (Tp) was calculated. Time-to-peak is defined as the time at which the largest discharge of the watershed occurs. This is computed by using a lag time equation that was developed specifically for the Philippine setting. The equation involves three measurable parameters, namely, watershed length (L), maximum potential retention (S), and watershed slope (Y). This approach is based on a similar method developed by CH2M Hill and Horritt for Taiwan, which has a similar set of meteorological and hydrological parameters with the Philippines. Data from fourteen water level sensors covering 67 storms from all the regions in the country were used to estimate the time-to-peak. These sensors were chosen by using a screening process that considers the distance of the sensors from the sea, the availability of recorded data, and the catchment size. Values of Tp from the different sensors were generated from the general lag time equation based on the Natural Resource Conservation Management handbook by the US Department of Agriculture. The calculated Tp values were plotted against the values obtained from the equation L0.8(S+1)0.7/Y0.5. Regression analysis was used to obtain the final equation that would be

  11. Random distribution of background charge density for numerical simulation of discharge inception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grange, F.; Loiseau, J.F.; Spyrou, N.

    1998-01-01

    The models of electric streamers based on a uniform background density of electrons may appear not to be physical, as the number of electrons in the small active region located in the vicinity of the electrode tip under regular conditions can be less than one. To avoid this, the electron background is modelled by a random density distribution such that, after a certain time lag, at least one electron is present in the grid close to the point electrode. The modelling performed shows that the streamer inception is not very sensitive to the initial location of the charged particles; the ionizing front, however, may be delayed by several tens of nanoseconds, depending on the way the electron has to drift before reaching the anode. (J.U.)

  12. Neuronal model with distributed delay: analysis and simulation study for gamma distribution memory kernel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmeshu; Gupta, Varun; Kadambari, K V

    2011-06-01

    A single neuronal model incorporating distributed delay (memory)is proposed. The stochastic model has been formulated as a Stochastic Integro-Differential Equation (SIDE) which results in the underlying process being non-Markovian. A detailed analysis of the model when the distributed delay kernel has exponential form (weak delay) has been carried out. The selection of exponential kernel has enabled the transformation of the non-Markovian model to a Markovian model in an extended state space. For the study of First Passage Time (FPT) with exponential delay kernel, the model has been transformed to a system of coupled Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) in two-dimensional state space. Simulation studies of the SDEs provide insight into the effect of weak delay kernel on the Inter-Spike Interval(ISI) distribution. A measure based on Jensen-Shannon divergence is proposed which can be used to make a choice between two competing models viz. distributed delay model vis-á-vis LIF model. An interesting feature of the model is that the behavior of (CV(t))((ISI)) (Coefficient of Variation) of the ISI distribution with respect to memory kernel time constant parameter η reveals that neuron can switch from a bursting state to non-bursting state as the noise intensity parameter changes. The membrane potential exhibits decaying auto-correlation structure with or without damped oscillatory behavior depending on the choice of parameters. This behavior is in agreement with empirically observed pattern of spike count in a fixed time window. The power spectral density derived from the auto-correlation function is found to exhibit single and double peaks. The model is also examined for the case of strong delay with memory kernel having the form of Gamma distribution. In contrast to fast decay of damped oscillations of the ISI distribution for the model with weak delay kernel, the decay of damped oscillations is found to be slower for the model with strong delay kernel.

  13. A Complex Network Approach to Distributional Semantic Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira Utsumi

    Full Text Available A number of studies on network analysis have focused on language networks based on free word association, which reflects human lexical knowledge, and have demonstrated the small-world and scale-free properties in the word association network. Nevertheless, there have been very few attempts at applying network analysis to distributional semantic models, despite the fact that these models have been studied extensively as computational or cognitive models of human lexical knowledge. In this paper, we analyze three network properties, namely, small-world, scale-free, and hierarchical properties, of semantic networks created by distributional semantic models. We demonstrate that the created networks generally exhibit the same properties as word association networks. In particular, we show that the distribution of the number of connections in these networks follows the truncated power law, which is also observed in an association network. This indicates that distributional semantic models can provide a plausible model of lexical knowledge. Additionally, the observed differences in the network properties of various implementations of distributional semantic models are consistently explained or predicted by considering the intrinsic semantic features of a word-context matrix and the functions of matrix weighting and smoothing. Furthermore, to simulate a semantic network with the observed network properties, we propose a new growing network model based on the model of Steyvers and Tenenbaum. The idea underlying the proposed model is that both preferential and random attachments are required to reflect different types of semantic relations in network growth process. We demonstrate that this model provides a better explanation of network behaviors generated by distributional semantic models.

  14. A New Measurement of the Spectral Lag of Gamma-Ray Bursts and its Implications for Spectral Evolution Behaviors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shao, Lang; Wang, Fu-Ri; Cheng, Ye-Hao; Zhang, Xi; Yu, Bang-Yao; Xi, Bao-Jia; Wang, Xue; Feng, Huan-Xue; Zhang, Meng, E-mail: lshao@hebtu.edu.cn [Department of Space Sciences and Astronomy, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024 (China); Zhang, Bin-Bin [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucá (IAA-CSIC), P.O. Box 03004, E-18080 Granada (Spain); Wu, Xue-Feng [Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008 (China); Xu, Dong [Key Laboratory of Space Astronomy and Technology, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2017-08-01

    We carry out a systematical study of the spectral lag properties of 50 single-pulsed gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor. By dividing the light curves into multiple consecutive energy channels, we provide a new measurement of the spectral lag that is independent of energy channel selections. We perform a detailed statistical study of our new measurements. We find two similar power-law energy dependencies of both the pulse arrival time and pulse width. Our new results on the power-law indices would favor the relativistic geometric effects for the origin of spectral lag. However, a complete theoretical framework that can fully account for the diverse energy dependencies of both arrival time and pulse width revealed in this work is still lacking. We also study the spectral evolution behaviors of the GRB pulses. We find that a GRB pulse with negligible spectral lag would usually have a shorter pulse duration and would appear to have a “hardness-intensity tracking” behavior, and a GRB pulse with a significant spectral lag would usually have a longer pulse duration and would appear to have a “hard-to-soft” behavior.

  15. Scaling precipitation input to spatially distributed hydrological models by measured snow distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Vögeli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate knowledge on snow distribution in alpine terrain is crucial for various applicationssuch as flood risk assessment, avalanche warning or managing water supply and hydro-power.To simulate the seasonal snow cover development in alpine terrain, the spatially distributed,physics-based model Alpine3D is suitable. The model is typically driven by spatial interpolationsof observations from automatic weather stations (AWS, leading to errors in the spatial distributionof atmospheric forcing. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, maps of snowdepth can be acquired with high spatial resolution and accuracy. In this work, maps of the snowdepth distribution, calculated from summer and winter digital surface models based on AirborneDigital Sensors (ADS, are used to scale precipitation input data, with the aim to improve theaccuracy of simulation of the spatial distribution of snow with Alpine3D. A simple method toscale and redistribute precipitation is presented and the performance is analysed. The scalingmethod is only applied if it is snowing. For rainfall the precipitation is distributed by interpolation,with a simple air temperature threshold used for the determination of the precipitation phase.It was found that the accuracy of spatial snow distribution could be improved significantly forthe simulated domain. The standard deviation of absolute snow depth error is reduced up toa factor 3.4 to less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error in snow distribution was reducedwhen using representative input sources for the simulation domain. For inter-annual scaling, themodel performance could also be improved, even when using a remote sensing dataset from adifferent winter. In conclusion, using remote sensing data to process precipitation input, complexprocesses such as preferential snow deposition and snow relocation due to wind or avalanches,can be substituted and modelling performance of spatial snow distribution is improved.

  16. Testing the reciprocal associations among co-worker incivility, organisational inefficiency, and work-related exhaustion: A one-year, cross-lagged study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viotti, Sara; Essenmacher, Lynnette; Hamblin, Lydia E.; Arnetz, Judith E.

    2018-01-01

    In spite of the considerable number of studies on co-worker incivility, knowledge on this topic needs to be further enhanced. In particular, no studies have focused on the reciprocal nature of the relationship of incivility with other important aspects of working life, i.e. employee well-being and the quality of the working process. The aim of the present study was to examine the cross-lagged associations among co-worker incivility, work-related exhaustion, and organisational efficiency in a sample of healthcare workers. Based on the conservation of resource theory, we hypothesised that those three variables affect each other reciprocally over the time. Data from a two-wave study design (with a one-year time lag) were utilised, and cross-lagged structural equation models were performed. Results confirmed that incivility and efficiency affected each other reciprocally over time. On the other hand, whereas incivility positively predicted exhaustion and exhaustion at inversely predicted organisational efficiency, the opposite paths were found to be not significant. The study suggests that efficiency is crucial for understanding incivility because it operates both as its cause and as its outcome. Interventions aimed at promoting civility and respect in the workplace may help prevent co-worker incivility, work-related exhaustion, and enhance organisational efficiency.

  17. Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Estimating Multistate Travel Time Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Kidando

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Multistate models, that is, models with more than two distributions, are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multistate modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution is superior to other probability functions. In this study, we extend the finite multistate lognormal model of estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a nonparametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as part of the algorithm during parameter estimation. To reduce computational complexity, the modeling process was limited to a maximum of six components. Then, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling technique was employed to estimate the parameters’ posterior distribution. Speed data from nine links of a freeway corridor, aggregated on a 5-minute basis, were used to calculate the corridor travel time. The results demonstrated that this model offers significant flexibility in modeling to account for complex mixture distributions of the travel time without specifying the number of components. The DPMM modeling further revealed that freeway travel time is characterized by multistate or single-state models depending on the inclusion of onset and offset of congestion periods.

  18. Component Analysis of Long-Lag, Wide-Pulse Gamma-Ray Burst ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Principal Component Analysis of Long-Lag, Wide-Pulse Gamma-Ray. Burst Data. Zhao-Yang Peng. ∗. & Wen-Shuai Liu. Department of Physics, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China. ∗ e-mail: pzy@ynao.ac.cn. Abstract. We have carried out a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the temporal and spectral ...

  19. Local and global analysis of a speculative housing market with production lag

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campisi, Giovanni; Naimzada, Ahmad K.; Tramontana, Fabio

    2018-05-01

    We extend the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303-329 (2012)], where the authors analyse a speculative housing market populated by heterogeneous interacting agents described by a two dimensional nonlinear discrete time dynamical system. They show the emergence of complicated dynamics through the occurrence of bifurcations for particular parameter combinations. We enlarge their model in several ways. On one hand, we introduce time lag in the supply side and we consider two new scenarios characterised by agents' expectations formation. First, naive expectations instead of perfect foresight are considered, while in the second scenario, we study a mix between the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303-329 (2012)] and the one we propose. As a consequence, we, analytically and numerically, explain the appearance of instability in the housing market providing conditions on the parameters that lead to a bifurcation. On the other hand, thanks to further numerical simulations, we conduct a global analysis providing the structure of the basin of attractions of the map showing coexistence of attractors.

  20. Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Individual Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a generalized method of moments (GMM based estimation for dynamic panel data models with individual specific fixed effects and threshold effects simultaneously. We extend Hansen’s (Hansen, 1999 original setup to models including endogenous regressors, specifically, lagged dependent variables. To address the problem of endogeneity of these nonlinear dynamic panel data models, we prove that the orthogonality conditions proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991 are valid. The threshold and slope parameters are estimated by GMM, and asymptotic distribution of the slope parameters is derived. Finite sample performance of the estimation is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the threshold and slope parameter can be estimated accurately and also the finite sample distribution of slope parameters is well approximated by the asymptotic distribution.

  1. Analysis and modelling of spatio-temporal properties of daily rainfall over the Danube basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2012-04-01

    Central and Eastern Europe are prone to severe floods due to heavy rainfall that cause societal and economic damages, ranging from agriculture to water resources, from the insurance/reinsurance sector to the energy industry. To improve the flood risk analysis, a better characterisation and modelling of the rainfall patterns over this area, which involves the Danube river watershed, is strategically important. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal properties of a large data set of daily rainfall time series from 15 countries in the Central Eastern Europe through different lagged and non-lagged indices of associations that quantify both the overall dependence and extreme dependence of pairwise observations. We also show that these measures are linked to each other and can be written in a unique and coherent notation within the copula framework. Moreover, the lagged version of these measures allows exploring some important spatio-temporal properties of the rainfall fields. The exploratory analysis is complemented by the preliminary results of a spatio-temporal rainfall simulation performed via a compound model based upon the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) and meta-elliptical multivariate distributions.

  2. Scaling of Ln(Permeability) in Sediments and Velocity Distributions in Turbulence: The Possibility of an Analogy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molz, F. J.; Kozubowski, T. J.; Miller, R. S.; Podgorski, K.

    2005-12-01

    The theory of non-stationary stochastic processes with stationary increments gives rise to stochastic fractals. When such fractals are used to represent measurements of (assumed stationary) physical properties, such as ln(k) increments in sediments or velocity increments "delta(v)" in turbulent flows, the resulting measurements exhibit scaling, either spatial, temporal or both. (In the present context, such scaling refers to systematic changes in the statistical properties of the increment distributions, such as variance, with the lag size over which the increments are determined.) Depending on the class of probability density functions (PDFs) that describe the increment distributions, the resulting stochastic fractals will display different properties. Until recently, the stationary increment process was represented using mainly Gaussian, Gamma or Levy PDFs. However, measurements in both sediments and fluid turbulence indicate that these PDFs are not commonly observed. Based on recent data and previous studies referenced and discussed in Meerschaert et al. (2004) and Molz et al. (2005), the measured increment PDFs display an approximate double exponential (Laplace) shape at smaller lags, and this shape evolves towards Gaussian at larger lags. A model for this behavior based on the Generalized Laplace PDF family called fractional Laplace motion, in analogy with its Gaussian counterpart - fractional Brownian motion, has been suggested (Meerschaert et al., 2004) and the necessary mathematics elaborated (Kozubowski et al., 2005). The resulting stochastic fractal is not a typical self-affine monofractal, but it does exhibit monofractal-like scaling in certain lag size ranges. To date, it has been shown that the Generalized Laplace family fits ln(k) increment distributions and reproduces the original 1941 theory of Kolmogorov when applied to Eulerian turbulent velocity increments. However, to make a physically self-consistent application to turbulence, one must adopt a

  3. Task Interruption: Resumption Lag and the Role of Cues

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Altmann, Erik M; Trafton, J. G

    2004-01-01

    ...), indicating a substantial disruptive effect. To probe the nature of the disruption, they examined the role of external cues associated with the interrupted task and found that cues available immediately before an interruption facilitate performance immediately afterwards, thus reducing the resumption lag. This "cue-availability" effect suggests that people deploy preparatory perceptual and memory processes, apparently spontaneously, to mitigate the disruptive effects of task interruption.

  4. Firm and Auditor Characteristics, and Audit Report Lag in Manufacturing Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2008-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtaruddin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the qualitative characteristics of financial reporting is relevant. Its manifestation can be seen from the timeliness of reporting. Timeliness could be judged from the audit report lag, which is the length of time from the end of company’s fiscal year to the date of auditor's report. This research aims to empirically examine the influence of firm size, operation complexity, auditor quality, and auditor's opinion on audit report lag of manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population of this research consists of manufacturing companies, listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2012 as many as 111 companies with the research’s sample of 65 companies or 325 observational data, which were selected by purposive sampling method. The data are secondary data obtained from Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research proves that simultaneously, all variables significantly influence the audit report lag. Subsequently in partial, variables ‘firm size’, ‘auditor's opinion’ have a significant and positive effect on audit report lag, the ‘auditor quality’ has a significant and negative effect on audit report lag, while the variable ‘operation complexity’ has no significant effect on audit report lag. The coefficient of determination ?(R?^2 in this study was 0.192 or 19.2 % and the remaining 80.8 % is influenced by other factors that were not examined.

  5. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided.

  6. A simple method to assess unsaturated zone time lag in the travel time from ground surface to receptor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Marcelo R; Jones, Jon P; Frind, Emil O; Rudolph, David L

    2013-01-01

    In contaminant travel from ground surface to groundwater receptors, the time taken in travelling through the unsaturated zone is known as the unsaturated zone time lag. Depending on the situation, this time lag may or may not be significant within the context of the overall problem. A method is presented for assessing the importance of the unsaturated zone in the travel time from source to receptor in terms of estimates of both the absolute and the relative advective times. A choice of different techniques for both unsaturated and saturated travel time estimation is provided. This method may be useful for practitioners to decide whether to incorporate unsaturated processes in conceptual and numerical models and can also be used to roughly estimate the total travel time between points near ground surface and a groundwater receptor. This method was applied to a field site located in a glacial aquifer system in Ontario, Canada. Advective travel times were estimated using techniques with different levels of sophistication. The application of the proposed method indicates that the time lag in the unsaturated zone is significant at this field site and should be taken into account. For this case, sophisticated and simplified techniques lead to similar assessments when the same knowledge of the hydraulic conductivity field is assumed. When there is significant uncertainty regarding the hydraulic conductivity, simplified calculations did not lead to a conclusive decision. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Lateral Displacement And Shear Lag Effect Of High-Rise Buildings With Diagrid SystemThat Is Constructed Above A Frame

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd. Samat Roslida

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Diagrid system has gained a wide acceptance in the design of tall buildings due to its many advantages including its high structural efficiency in resisting both gravity and lateral loads. Most diagrid structures that had been studied have full triangulated members from the ground level to the top of the buildings where comparison in the effectiveness in minimizing the lateral displacement was often made between structures with full diagrid, frame and outrigger system. Nevertheless, no study has been performed on the effectiveness of the diagrid that is constructed above a frame system. The objective of this research is to understand the behavior of the lateral displacement and shear lag effect due to wind load when the diagrid structure is constructed above a frame. Models of sixty storey buildings were analyzed by using Staad.Pro software. The level where the diagrid members started and the spacing of vertical base columns of the frame were altered. The lateral displacement and shear lag effect resembled closely of those of the model of full diagrid when the diagrid was started at level 3, and the vertical base columns were uniformly spaced at 6 metres.

  8. Estimating Predictive Variance for Statistical Gas Distribution Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilienthal, Achim J.; Asadi, Sahar; Reggente, Matteo

    2009-01-01

    Recent publications in statistical gas distribution modelling have proposed algorithms that model mean and variance of a distribution. This paper argues that estimating the predictive concentration variance entails not only a gradual improvement but is rather a significant step to advance the field. This is, first, since the models much better fit the particular structure of gas distributions, which exhibit strong fluctuations with considerable spatial variations as a result of the intermittent character of gas dispersal. Second, because estimating the predictive variance allows to evaluate the model quality in terms of the data likelihood. This offers a solution to the problem of ground truth evaluation, which has always been a critical issue for gas distribution modelling. It also enables solid comparisons of different modelling approaches, and provides the means to learn meta parameters of the model, to determine when the model should be updated or re-initialised, or to suggest new measurement locations based on the current model. We also point out directions of related ongoing or potential future research work.

  9. Bidirectional effects between parenting sensitivity and child behavior: A cross-lagged analysis across middle childhood and adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvara, Bharathi J; Sheppard, Kelly W; Cox, Martha

    2018-04-26

    Using a longitudinal, cross-lagged design, this study examined the bidirectional relations between mothers' and fathers' sensitivity and children's externalizing (EXT) and internalizing (INT) behavior from middle childhood into adolescence. The subsample comprised families (N = 578) in which the mother and father cohabitated from the study's first time point (child age = 54 months) through Age 15 in the longitudinal NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Study results revealed differential patterns for mother-child and father-child relations in the full sample and separately for males and females. The full cross-lagged models revealed that child EXT behavior predicted maternal sensitivity, but not vice versa, and fathers' sensitivity and child behavior were reciprocally interrelated. There was a significant indirect pathway from early paternal sensitivity to later EXT in males, and from early maternal sensitivity to INT in females. The results point to the important roles that fathers play in child INT and EXT behaviors and important differences between males and females. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. A model for the distribution channels planning process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neves, M.F.; Zuurbier, P.; Campomar, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Research of existing literature reveals some models (sequence of steps) for companies that want to plan distribution channels. None of these models uses strong contributions from transaction cost economics, bringing a possibility to elaborate on a "distribution channels planning model", with these

  11. Determining patterns of variability in ecological communities: time lag analysis revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampichler, C.; Van der Jeugd, H.P.

    2013-01-01

    All ecological communities experience change over time. One method to quantify temporal variation in the patterns of relative abundance of communities is time lag analysis (TLA). It uses a distance-based approach to study temporal community dynamics by regressing community dissimilarity over

  12. Simulation and measurement of total ionizing dose radiation induced image lag increase in pinned photodiode CMOS image sensors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Jing [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Xiangtan University, Hunan (China); State Key Laboratory of Intense Pulsed Irradiation Simulation and Effect, Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, P.O.Box 69-10, Xi’an (China); Chen, Wei, E-mail: chenwei@nint.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Intense Pulsed Irradiation Simulation and Effect, Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, P.O.Box 69-10, Xi’an (China); Wang, Zujun, E-mail: wangzujun@nint.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Intense Pulsed Irradiation Simulation and Effect, Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, P.O.Box 69-10, Xi’an (China); Xue, Yuanyuan; Yao, Zhibin; He, Baoping; Ma, Wuying; Jin, Junshan; Sheng, Jiangkun; Dong, Guantao [State Key Laboratory of Intense Pulsed Irradiation Simulation and Effect, Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, P.O.Box 69-10, Xi’an (China)

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents an investigation of total ionizing dose (TID) induced image lag sources in pinned photodiodes (PPD) CMOS image sensors based on radiation experiments and TCAD simulation. The radiation experiments have been carried out at the Cobalt −60 gamma-ray source. The experimental results show the image lag degradation is more and more serious with increasing TID. Combining with the TCAD simulation results, we can confirm that the junction of PPD and transfer gate (TG) is an important region forming image lag during irradiation. These simulations demonstrate that TID can generate a potential pocket leading to incomplete transfer.

  13. Optimization of lag phase shapes the evolution of a bacterial enzyme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Bharat V; Manhart, Michael; Bhattacharyya, Sanchari; Tian, Jian; Musharbash, Michael; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2017-04-28

    Mutations provide the variation that drives evolution, yet their effects on fitness remain poorly understood. Here we explore how mutations in the essential enzyme adenylate kinase (Adk) of Escherichia coli affect multiple phases of population growth. We introduce a biophysical fitness landscape for these phases, showing how they depend on molecular and cellular properties of Adk. We find that Adk catalytic capacity in the cell (the product of activity and abundance) is the major determinant of mutational fitness effects. We show that bacterial lag times are at a well-defined optimum with respect to Adk's catalytic capacity, while exponential growth rates are only weakly affected by variation in Adk. Direct pairwise competitions between strains show how environmental conditions modulate the outcome of a competition where growth rates and lag times have a tradeoff, shedding light on the multidimensional nature of fitness and its importance in the evolutionary optimization of enzymes.

  14. Checkpoint Kinase Rad53 Couples Leading- and Lagging-Strand DNA Synthesis under Replication Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Haiyun; Yu, Chuanhe; Devbhandari, Sujan; Sharma, Sushma; Han, Junhong; Chabes, Andrei; Remus, Dirk; Zhang, Zhiguo

    2017-10-19

    The checkpoint kinase Rad53 is activated during replication stress to prevent fork collapse, an essential but poorly understood process. Here we show that Rad53 couples leading- and lagging-strand synthesis under replication stress. In rad53-1 cells stressed by dNTP depletion, the replicative DNA helicase, MCM, and the leading-strand DNA polymerase, Pol ε, move beyond the site of DNA synthesis, likely unwinding template DNA. Remarkably, DNA synthesis progresses further along the lagging strand than the leading strand, resulting in the exposure of long stretches of single-stranded leading-strand template. The asymmetric DNA synthesis in rad53-1 cells is suppressed by elevated levels of dNTPs in vivo, and the activity of Pol ε is compromised more than lagging-strand polymerase Pol δ at low dNTP concentrations in vitro. Therefore, we propose that Rad53 prevents the generation of excessive ssDNA under replication stress by coordinating DNA unwinding with synthesis of both strands. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Mathematical Models for Room Air Distribution - Addendum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.

    1982-01-01

    A number of different models on the air distribution in rooms are introduced. This includes the throw model, a model on penetration length of a cold wall jet and a model for maximum velocity in the dimensioning of an air distribution system in highly loaded rooms and shows that the amount of heat...... removed from the room at constant penetration length is proportional to the cube of the velocities in the occupied zone. It is also shown that a large number of diffusers increases the amount of heat which may be removed without affecting the thermal conditions. Control strategies for dual duct and single...... duct systems are given and the paper is concluded by mentioning a computer-based prediction method which gives the velocity and temperature distribution in the whole room....

  16. A Distributional Representation Model For Collaborative Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Junlin, Zhang; Heng, Cai; Tongwen, Huang; Huiping, Xue

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a very concise deep learning approach for collaborative filtering that jointly models distributional representation for users and items. The proposed framework obtains better performance when compared against current state-of-art algorithms and that made the distributional representation model a promising direction for further research in the collaborative filtering.

  17. Rapid Prototyping of Formally Modelled Distributed Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Buchs, Didier; Buffo, Mathieu; Titsworth, Frances M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents various kinds of prototypes, used in the prototyping of formally modelled distributed systems. It presents the notions of prototyping techniques and prototype evolution, and shows how to relate them to the software life-cycle. It is illustrated through the use of the formal modelling language for distributed systems CO-OPN/2.

  18. Climate policy with tied hands optimal resource taxation under implementation lags

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    di Maria, C.; Smulders, Sjak; van der Werf, E.H.

    In the presence of implementation lags, announced Pigouvian taxation leads to fossil fuel prices that are too low from society’s perspective. This results in excessive emissions and reduced incentives for green innovation. Such effects are compounded by the presence of pre-existing subsidies to

  19. Importance of the test volume on the lag phase in biodegradation studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingerslev, F.; Torang, Lars; Nyholm, Niels

    2000-01-01

    , degradation failed randomly. Our findings are partly explained by the hypotheses that a sufficient total amount as well as a sufficient concentration of specifically degrading microorganisms or consortia of bacteria must be present initially for biodegradation to get started, from which follows that with too......Increasing the total volume of test medium resulted in decreased lag times (TL) in biodegradability shake flask batch tests conducted with either surface water or with synthetic mineral medium inoculated with supernatant from settled activated sludge. Experiments were performed with test volumes...... small inoculations or with too small test volumes, biodegradation may fail randomly. A straightforward practical implication of the findings is that the test volume in biodegradability tests can significantly influence the lag time and thus sometimes be decisive for the outcome in biodegradation studies....

  20. Distribution of age at menopause in two Danish samples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldsen, J L; Jeune, B

    1990-01-01

    We analyzed the distribution of reported age at natural menopause in two random samples of Danish women (n = 176 and n = 150) to determine the shape of the distribution and to disclose any possible trends in the distribution parameters. It was necessary to correct the frequencies of the reported...... ages for the effect of differing ages at reporting. The corrected distribution of age at menopause differs from the normal distribution in the same way in both samples. Both distributions could be described by a mixture of two normal distributions. It appears that most of the parameters of the normal...... distribution mixtures remain unchanged over a 50-year time lag. The position of the distribution, that is, the mean age at menopause, however, increases slightly but significantly....

  1. [Time lag effect between poplar' s sap flow velocity and microclimate factors in agroforestry system in West Liaoning Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Sun; Guan, De-xin; Yuan, Feng-hui; Wang, An-zhi; Wu, Jia-bing

    2010-11-01

    By using Granier's thermal dissipation probe, the sap flow velocity of the poplars in agroforestry system in west Liaoning was continuously measured, and the microclimate factors were measured synchronously. Dislocation contrast method was applied to analyze the sap flow velocity and corresponding air temperature, air humidity, net radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to discuss the time lag effect between poplar' s sap flow velocity and microclimate factors on sunny days. It was found that the poplar's sap flow velocity advanced of air temperature, air humidity, and vapor pressure deficit, and lagged behind net radiation. The sap flow velocity in June, July, August, and September was advanced of 70, 30, 50, and 90 min to air temperature, of 80, 30, 40, and 90 min to air humidity, and of 90, 50, 70, and 120 min to vapor pressure deficit, but lagged behind 10, 10, 40, and 40 min to net radiation, respectively. The time lag time of net radiation was shorter than that of air temperature, air humidity, and vapor pressure. The regression analysis showed that in the cases the time lag effect was contained and not, the determination coefficients between comprehensive microclimate factor and poplar's sap flow velocity were 0.903 and 0.855, respectively, indicating that when the time lag effect was contained, the determination coefficient was ascended by 2.04%, and thus, the simulation accuracy of poplar's sap flow velocity was improved.

  2. Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R; Lowe, Winsor H; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-02-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Species Distribution Modeling: Comparison of Fixed and Mixed Effects Models Using INLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Dutra Silva

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Invasive alien species are among the most important, least controlled, and least reversible of human impacts on the world’s ecosystems, with negative consequences affecting biodiversity and socioeconomic systems. Species distribution models have become a fundamental tool in assessing the potential spread of invasive species in face of their native counterparts. In this study we compared two different modeling techniques: (i fixed effects models accounting for the effect of ecogeographical variables (EGVs; and (ii mixed effects models including also a Gaussian random field (GRF to model spatial correlation (Matérn covariance function. To estimate the potential distribution of Pittosporum undulatum and Morella faya (respectively, invasive and native trees, we used geo-referenced data of their distribution in Pico and São Miguel islands (Azores and topographic, climatic and land use EGVs. Fixed effects models run with maximum likelihood or the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation approach provided very similar results, even when reducing the size of the presences data set. The addition of the GRF increased model adjustment (lower Deviance Information Criterion, particularly for the less abundant tree, M. faya. However, the random field parameters were clearly affected by sample size and species distribution pattern. A high degree of spatial autocorrelation was found and should be taken into account when modeling species distribution.

  4. Drug lag and key regulatory barriers in the emerging markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet Wileman

    2010-01-01

    This work concludes that the overall relative drug lag in the emerging markets has decreased over time and that there are seven key regulatory barriers which need to be targeted in order to make further improvements; ′Western Approval′, local clinical development (LCD, Certificate of Pharmaceutical Product (CPP, Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP, pricing approval, document authentication and harmonisation.

  5. Heat conduction errors and time lag in cryogenic thermometer installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warshawsky, I.

    1973-01-01

    Installation practices are recommended that will increase rate of heat exchange between the thermometric sensing element and the cryogenic fluid and that will reduce the rate of undesired heat transfer to higher-temperature objects. Formulas and numerical data are given that help to estimate the magnitude of heat-conduction errors and of time lag in response.

  6. Investigating the Twenty Year Lag in the Vocational Rehabilitation Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowitt, Julian

    In the rehabilitation workshop there is insufficient attention to job development oriented to the current and future needs of industry. Many types of work which were done in vocational workshops in contract from industrial firms are now done by automation. Semiskilled labor is thus in diminished demand. There is a twenty year lag in the industrial…

  7. Asymptotical Behaviors of Nonautonomous Discrete Kolmogorov System with Time Lags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Shengqiang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss a general -species discrete Kolmogorov system with time lags. We build some new results about the sufficient conditions for permanence, extinction, and balancing survival. When applying these results to some Lotka-Volterra systems, we obtain the criteria on harmless delay for the permanence as well as profitless delay for balancing survival.

  8. Asymptotical Behaviors of Nonautonomous Discrete Kolmogorov System with Time Lags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengqiang Liu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss a general n-species discrete Kolmogorov system with time lags. We build some new results about the sufficient conditions for permanence, extinction, and balancing survival. When applying these results to some Lotka-Volterra systems, we obtain the criteria on harmless delay for the permanence as well as profitless delay for balancing survival.

  9. Health Care Public Sector Share and the U.S. Life Expectancy Lag: A Country-level Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Megan M

    2018-04-01

    Growing research on the political economy of health has begun to emphasize sociopolitical influences on cross-national differences in population health above and beyond economic growth. While this research investigates the impact of overall public health spending as a share of GDP ("health care effort"), it has for the most part overlooked the distribution of health care spending across the public and private spheres ("public sector share"). I evaluate the relative contributions of health care effort, public sector share, and GDP to the large and growing disadvantage in U.S. life expectancy at birth relative to peer nations. I do so using fixed effects models with data from 16 wealthy democratic nations between 1960 and 2010. Results indicate that public sector share has a beneficial effect on longevity net of the effect of health care effort and that this effect is nonlinear, decreasing in magnitude as levels rise. Moreover, public sector share is a more powerful predictor of life expectancy at birth than GDP per capita. This study contributes to discussions around the political economy of health, the growth consensus, and the American lag in life expectancy. Policy implications vis-à-vis the U.S. Affordable Care Act are discussed.

  10. Technical Note: Intrafractional changes in time lag relationship between anterior–posterior external and superior–inferior internal motion signals in abdominal tumor sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regmi, Rajesh; Lovelock, D. Michael; Zhang, Pengpeng; Pham, Hai; Xiong, Jianping; Yorke, Ellen D.; Goodman, Karyn A.; Wu, Abraham J.; Mageras, Gig S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate constancy, within a treatment session, of the time lag relationship between implanted markers in abdominal tumors and an external motion surrogate. Methods: Six gastroesophageal junction and three pancreatic cancer patients (IRB-approved protocol) received two cone-beam CTs (CBCT), one before and one after treatment. Time between scans was less than 30 min. Each patient had at least one implanted fiducial marker near the tumor. In all scans, abdominal displacement (Varian RPM) was recorded as the external motion signal. Purpose-built software tracked fiducials, representing internal signal, in CBCT projection images. Time lag between superior–inferior (SI) internal and anterior–posterior external signals was found by maximizing the correlation coefficient in each breathing cycle and averaging over all cycles. Time-lag-induced discrepancy between internal SI position and that predicted from the external signal (external prediction error) was also calculated. Results: Mean ± standard deviation time lag, over all scans and patients, was 0.10 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01–0.36 s). External signal lagged the internal in 17/18 scans. Change in time lag between pre- and post-treatment CBCT was 0.06 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01–0.22 s), corresponding to 3.1% ± 3.7% (range 0.6%–10.8%) of gate width (range 1.6–3.1 s). In only one patient, change in time lag exceeded 10% of the gate width. External prediction error over all scans of all patients varied from 0.1 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.4 mm. Conclusions: Time lag between internal motion along SI and external signals is small compared to the treatment gate width of abdominal patients examined in this study. Change in time lag within a treatment session, inferred from pre- to post-treatment measurements is also small, suggesting that a single measurement of time lag at the session start is adequate. These findings require confirmation in a larger number of patients. PMID:26127033

  11. Technical Note: Intrafractional changes in time lag relationship between anterior-posterior external and superior-inferior internal motion signals in abdominal tumor sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regmi, Rajesh; Lovelock, D Michael; Zhang, Pengpeng; Pham, Hai; Xiong, Jianping; Yorke, Ellen D; Goodman, Karyn A; Wu, Abraham J; Mageras, Gig S

    2015-06-01

    To investigate constancy, within a treatment session, of the time lag relationship between implanted markers in abdominal tumors and an external motion surrogate. Six gastroesophageal junction and three pancreatic cancer patients (IRB-approved protocol) received two cone-beam CTs (CBCT), one before and one after treatment. Time between scans was less than 30 min. Each patient had at least one implanted fiducial marker near the tumor. In all scans, abdominal displacement (Varian RPM) was recorded as the external motion signal. Purpose-built software tracked fiducials, representing internal signal, in CBCT projection images. Time lag between superior-inferior (SI) internal and anterior-posterior external signals was found by maximizing the correlation coefficient in each breathing cycle and averaging over all cycles. Time-lag-induced discrepancy between internal SI position and that predicted from the external signal (external prediction error) was also calculated. Mean ± standard deviation time lag, over all scans and patients, was 0.10 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01-0.36 s). External signal lagged the internal in 17/18 scans. Change in time lag between pre- and post-treatment CBCT was 0.06 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01-0.22 s), corresponding to 3.1% ± 3.7% (range 0.6%-10.8%) of gate width (range 1.6-3.1 s). In only one patient, change in time lag exceeded 10% of the gate width. External prediction error over all scans of all patients varied from 0.1 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.4 mm. Time lag between internal motion along SI and external signals is small compared to the treatment gate width of abdominal patients examined in this study. Change in time lag within a treatment session, inferred from pre- to post-treatment measurements is also small, suggesting that a single measurement of time lag at the session start is adequate. These findings require confirmation in a larger number of patients.

  12. A Monte Carlo-shear lag simulation of tensile fracture behaviour of Bi2223 filament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochiai, S; Ishida, T; Doko, D; Morishita, K; Okuda, H; Oh, S S; Ha, D W; Hojo, M; Tanaka, M; Sugano, M; Osamura, K

    2005-01-01

    The damage evolution in Bi2223 filaments and its influence on critical current was described by a Monte Carlo-shear lag simulation method. The experimentally observed zigzag crack propagation across aligned Bi2223 grains under tensile strain was effectively modelled by including transverse and longitudinal failure modes for individual grains. From the simulated stress-strain curve, the survival parameter (slope of the stress-strain curve normalized with respect to the original Young's modulus) was estimated with increasing applied strain. With this parameter combined with the strain sensitivity of the critical current, the measured change of critical current of the composite tape with applied strain could be described well

  13. Simultaneous treatment of unspecified heteroskedastic model error distribution and mismeasured covariates for restricted moment models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Tanya P; Ma, Yanyuan

    2017-10-01

    We develop consistent and efficient estimation of parameters in general regression models with mismeasured covariates. We assume the model error and covariate distributions are unspecified, and the measurement error distribution is a general parametric distribution with unknown variance-covariance. We construct root- n consistent, asymptotically normal and locally efficient estimators using the semiparametric efficient score. We do not estimate any unknown distribution or model error heteroskedasticity. Instead, we form the estimator under possibly incorrect working distribution models for the model error, error-prone covariate, or both. Empirical results demonstrate robustness to different incorrect working models in homoscedastic and heteroskedastic models with error-prone covariates.

  14. Species Distribution modeling as a tool to unravel determinants of palm distribution in Thailand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Balslev, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    As a consequence of the decimation of the forest cover in Thailand from 50% to ca. 20 % since the 1950ies, it is difficult to gain insight in the drivers behind past, present and future distribution ranges of plant species. Species distribution modeling allows visualization of potential species...... distribution under specific sets of assumptions. In this study we used maximum entropy to map potential distributions of 103 species of palms for which more than 5 herbarium records exist. Palms constitute key-stone plant group from both an ecological, economical and conservation perspective. The models were......) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). All models performed well with AUC scores above 0.95. The predicted distribution ranges showed high suitability for palms in the southern region of Thailand. It also shows that spatial predictor variables are important in cases where historical processes may explain extant...

  15. A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly. Elder

    2006-01-01

    SnowModel is a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system designed for application in landscapes, climates, and conditions where snow occurs. It is an aggregation of four submodels: MicroMet defines meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowPack simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D...

  16. Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

    2018-02-01

    Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

  17. Species distribution model transferability and model grain size - finer may not always be better.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoor, Syed Amir; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Lukac, Martin

    2018-05-08

    Species distribution models have been used to predict the distribution of invasive species for conservation planning. Understanding spatial transferability of niche predictions is critical to promote species-habitat conservation and forecasting areas vulnerable to invasion. Grain size of predictor variables is an important factor affecting the accuracy and transferability of species distribution models. Choice of grain size is often dependent on the type of predictor variables used and the selection of predictors sometimes rely on data availability. This study employed the MAXENT species distribution model to investigate the effect of the grain size on model transferability for an invasive plant species. We modelled the distribution of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales, U.K. and tested model performance and transferability by varying grain size (50 m, 300 m, and 1 km). MAXENT-based models are sensitive to grain size and selection of variables. We found that over-reliance on the commonly used bioclimatic variables may lead to less accurate models as it often compromises the finer grain size of biophysical variables which may be more important determinants of species distribution at small spatial scales. Model accuracy is likely to increase with decreasing grain size. However, successful model transferability may require optimization of model grain size.

  18. PENGARUH KOMITE AUDIT, RETURN ON ASSETS DAN DEBT TO TOTAL ASSETS TERHADAP AUDIT REPORT LAG PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

    OpenAIRE

    Ariani,

    2014-01-01

    Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh independensi komite audit terhadap audit report lag, mengetahui pengaruh return on assets terhadap audit report lag dan mengetahui pengaruh debt to total assets terhadap audit report lag. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun 2010 – 2012. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa independensi komite audit berpengaruh negatif terhadap audit report lag, return on assets berpen...

  19. The Influence of Profitability, Solvency, and Auditor’s Opinion to Audit Report Lag at Coal Mining Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adlina Nindra Hapsari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Submitting financial statements adapted in accordance with accounting standards audited by a registered public accountant with Financial Service Authority known as Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK is required for every public company. In delivering financial reports to the public, there would be a delay affected by a period of audit reporting (audit report lag. The goal of this research was to determine the impact of profitability, solvency, and auditor’s opinion to audit report lag on sub-sector coal mining companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Quantitative study with purposive sampling method was used as the research method. In addition, the data were obtained from the company’s financial statements which have been published. Multiple linear regression and hypothesis testing using t and f statistics with a confidence level of 5% were applied as the analysis technique. The amount of the research objects was 18 out of 22 classified companies from the period of 2012 to 2014. From this study, it can be concluded that both profitability and auditor’s opinion have significant influence on audit report lag. In contrast, solvency has no significant influence on audit report lag.

  20. Charge distribution in an two-chain dual model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fialkowski, K.; Kotanski, A.

    1983-01-01

    Charge distributions in the multiple production processes are analysed using the dual chain model. A parametrisation of charge distributions for single dual chains based on the νp and anti vp data is proposed. The rapidity charge distributions are then calculated for pp and anti pp collisions and compared with the previous calculations based on the recursive cascade model of single chains. The results differ at the SPS collider energies and in the energy dependence of the net forward charge supplying the useful tests of the dual chain model. (orig.)

  1. Uncertainty Visualization Using Copula-Based Analysis in Mixed Distribution Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazarika, Subhashis; Biswas, Ayan; Shen, Han-Wei

    2018-01-01

    Distributions are often used to model uncertainty in many scientific datasets. To preserve the correlation among the spatially sampled grid locations in the dataset, various standard multivariate distribution models have been proposed in visualization literature. These models treat each grid location as a univariate random variable which models the uncertainty at that location. Standard multivariate distributions (both parametric and nonparametric) assume that all the univariate marginals are of the same type/family of distribution. But in reality, different grid locations show different statistical behavior which may not be modeled best by the same type of distribution. In this paper, we propose a new multivariate uncertainty modeling strategy to address the needs of uncertainty modeling in scientific datasets. Our proposed method is based on a statistically sound multivariate technique called Copula, which makes it possible to separate the process of estimating the univariate marginals and the process of modeling dependency, unlike the standard multivariate distributions. The modeling flexibility offered by our proposed method makes it possible to design distribution fields which can have different types of distribution (Gaussian, Histogram, KDE etc.) at the grid locations, while maintaining the correlation structure at the same time. Depending on the results of various standard statistical tests, we can choose an optimal distribution representation at each location, resulting in a more cost efficient modeling without significantly sacrificing on the analysis quality. To demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed modeling strategy, we extract and visualize uncertain features like isocontours and vortices in various real world datasets. We also study various modeling criterion to help users in the task of univariate model selection.

  2. ANTI-CORRELATED TIME LAGS IN THE Z SOURCE GX 5-1: POSSIBLE EVIDENCE FOR A TRUNCATED ACCRETION DISK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sriram, K.; Choi, C. S. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Rao, A. R., E-mail: astrosriram@yahoo.co.in [Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai 400005 (India)

    2012-06-01

    We investigate the nature of the inner accretion disk in the neutron star source GX 5-1 by making a detailed study of time lags between X-rays of different energies. Using the cross-correlation analysis, we found anti-correlated hard and soft time lags of the order of a few tens to a few hundred seconds and the corresponding intensity states were mostly the horizontal branch (HB) and upper normal branch. The model independent and dependent spectral analysis showed that during these time lags the structure of the accretion disk significantly varied. Both eastern and western approaches were used to unfold the X-ray continuum and systematic changes were observed in soft and hard spectral components. These changes along with a systematic shift in the frequency of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) made it substantially evident that the geometry of the accretion disk is truncated. Simultaneous energy spectral and power density spectral study shows that the production of the horizontal branch oscillations (HBOs) is closely related to the Comptonizing region rather than the disk component in the accretion disk. We found that as the HBO frequency decreases from the hard apex to upper HB, the disk temperature increases along with an increase in the coronal temperature, which is in sharp contrast with the changes found in black hole binaries where the decrease in the QPO frequency is accompanied by a decrease in the disk temperature and a simultaneous increase in the coronal temperature. We discuss the results in the context of re-condensation of coronal material in the inner region of the disk.

  3. The κ-generalized distribution: A new descriptive model for the size distribution of incomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, F.; Di Matteo, T.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2008-05-01

    This paper proposes the κ-generalized distribution as a model for describing the distribution and dispersion of income within a population. Formulas for the shape, moments and standard tools for inequality measurement-such as the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient-are given. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit extremely well the data on personal income distribution in Australia and in the United States.

  4. Studying the Impact of Distributed Solar PV on Power Systems using Integrated Transmission and Distribution Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Himanshu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krad, Ibrahim [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-24

    This paper presents the results of a distributed solar PV impact assessment study that was performed using a synthetic integrated transmission (T) and distribution (D) model. The primary objective of the study was to present a new approach for distributed solar PV impact assessment, where along with detailed models of transmission and distribution networks, consumer loads were modeled using the physics of end-use equipment, and distributed solar PV was geographically dispersed and connected to the secondary distribution networks. The highlights of the study results were (i) increase in the Area Control Error (ACE) at high penetration levels of distributed solar PV; and (ii) differences in distribution voltages profiles and voltage regulator operations between integrated T&D and distribution only simulations.

  5. Designing the Distributed Model Integration Framework – DMIF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Morales, Javier

    2017-01-01

    We describe and discuss the design and prototype of the Distributed Model Integration Framework (DMIF) that links models deployed on different hardware and software platforms. We used distributed computing and service-oriented development approaches to address the different aspects of

  6. A NEW FAMILY OF MULTISTEP METHODS WITH IMPROVED PHASE-LAG CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE INTEGRATION OF ORBITAL PROBLEMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlachos, D. S.; Anastassi, Z. A.; Simos, T. E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new family of 10-step linear multistep methods for the integration of orbital problems. The new methods are constructed by adopting a new methodology which improves the phase-lag characteristics by vanishing both the phase-lag function and its first derivatives at a specific frequency. The efficiency of the new family of methods is proved via error analysis and numerical applications.

  7. Internal corporate governance mechanisms and audit report lag: A study of Malaysian listed companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ummi Junaidda Binti Hashim

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to investigate the link between corporate governance mechanisms and audit report lag for companies listed on Bursa Malaysia from 2007 to 2009. The 288 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia have been randomly selected. The corporate governance mechanisms examined include the board of directors and audit committee. It shows that there are significant negative relationships between board diligence, audit committee independence and expertise. The higher the number of meetings being held indicates that the board is discharging their role towards the company. The results show that audit committee independence and audit committee expertise could assist in reducing audit report lag among companies in Malaysia. Its provide some evidence supporting the resource based theory, whereby characteristics of the audit committee, such as the resources and capabilities, could improve companies’ performance as well as corporate reporting.However, it could not provide any evidence concerning the link between board independence, board expertise, CEO duality and audit committee diligence on audit report lag. This study provides comprehensive examination of ARL on Malaysian listed companies for three years period. It is consider the initial study to provide a thorough examination of the association between corporate governance characteristics and ARL.

  8. Successive lag synchronization on dynamical networks with communication delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xin-Jian; Wei Ai-Ju; Li Ke-Zan

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, successive lag synchronization (SLS) on a dynamical network with communication delay is investigated. In order to achieve SLS on the dynamical network with communication delay, we design linear feedback control and adaptive control, respectively. By using the Lyapunov function method, we obtain some sufficient conditions for global stability of SLS. To verify these results, some numerical examples are further presented. This work may find potential applications in consensus of multi-agent systems. (paper)

  9. Working toward integrated models of alpine plant distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Bradley Z; Randin, Christophe F; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been frequently employed to forecast the response of alpine plants to global changes. Efforts to model alpine plant distribution have thus far been primarily based on a correlative approach, in which ecological processes are implicitly addressed through a statistical relationship between observed species occurrences and environmental predictors. Recent evidence, however, highlights the shortcomings of correlative SDMs, especially in alpine landscapes where plant species tend to be decoupled from atmospheric conditions in micro-topographic habitats and are particularly exposed to geomorphic disturbances. While alpine plants respond to the same limiting factors as plants found at lower elevations, alpine environments impose a particular set of scale-dependent and hierarchical drivers that shape the realized niche of species and that require explicit consideration in a modelling context. Several recent studies in the European Alps have successfully integrated both correlative and process-based elements into distribution models of alpine plants, but for the time being a single integrative modelling framework that includes all key drivers remains elusive. As a first step in working toward a comprehensive integrated model applicable to alpine plant communities, we propose a conceptual framework that structures the primary mechanisms affecting alpine plant distributions. We group processes into four categories, including multi-scalar abiotic drivers, gradient dependent species interactions, dispersal and spatial-temporal plant responses to disturbance. Finally, we propose a methodological framework aimed at developing an integrated model to better predict alpine plant distribution.

  10. A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

  11. Modeling and simulation of a multistage-contactor for solvent extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, W.J.; Kim, C.; Lee, T.H.

    1977-01-01

    The hydrodynamic characteristics of Multistage Mixer-Settlers were studied by establishing a mathematical model based on the assumptions of complete mixing in the mixer and plug flow with CSTR recirculation in the settler. The model parameters were determined by the moment and time lag matching and experiments were carried out with a water-kerosene system by obtaining residence time distributions for both phases using impulse response technique. The suggested model well predicated the experimental results within the experimental error range, while the other existing models were found to be too idealized to depict the dynamic characteristics of this equipment. (author)

  12. From correlation to causation: Estimating effective connectivity from zero-lag covariances of brain signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiefer, Jonathan; Niederbühl, Alexander; Pernice, Volker; Lennartz, Carolin; Hennig, Jürgen; LeVan, Pierre; Rotter, Stefan

    2018-03-01

    Knowing brain connectivity is of great importance both in basic research and for clinical applications. We are proposing a method to infer directed connectivity from zero-lag covariances of neuronal activity recorded at multiple sites. This allows us to identify causal relations that are reflected in neuronal population activity. To derive our strategy, we assume a generic linear model of interacting continuous variables, the components of which represent the activity of local neuronal populations. The suggested method for inferring connectivity from recorded signals exploits the fact that the covariance matrix derived from the observed activity contains information about the existence, the direction and the sign of connections. Assuming a sparsely coupled network, we disambiguate the underlying causal structure via L1-minimization, which is known to prefer sparse solutions. In general, this method is suited to infer effective connectivity from resting state data of various types. We show that our method is applicable over a broad range of structural parameters regarding network size and connection probability of the network. We also explored parameters affecting its activity dynamics, like the eigenvalue spectrum. Also, based on the simulation of suitable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes to model BOLD dynamics, we show that with our method it is possible to estimate directed connectivity from zero-lag covariances derived from such signals. In this study, we consider measurement noise and unobserved nodes as additional confounding factors. Furthermore, we investigate the amount of data required for a reliable estimate. Additionally, we apply the proposed method on full-brain resting-state fast fMRI datasets. The resulting network exhibits a tendency for close-by areas being connected as well as inter-hemispheric connections between corresponding areas. In addition, we found that a surprisingly large fraction of more than one third of all identified connections were of

  13. Electric Power Distribution System Model Simplification Using Segment Substitution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiman, Andrew P.; McDermott, Thomas E.; Akcakaya, Murat; Reed, Gregory F.

    2018-05-01

    Quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation is used to simulate the behavior of distribution systems over long periods of time (typically hours to years). The technique involves repeatedly solving the load-flow problem for a distribution system model and is useful for distributed energy resource (DER) planning. When a QSTS simulation has a small time step and a long duration, the computational burden of the simulation can be a barrier to integration into utility workflows. One way to relieve the computational burden is to simplify the system model. The segment substitution method of simplifying distribution system models introduced in this paper offers model bus reduction of up to 98% with a simplification error as low as 0.2% (0.002 pu voltage). In contrast to existing methods of distribution system model simplification, which rely on topological inspection and linearization, the segment substitution method uses black-box segment data and an assumed simplified topology.

  14. Electric Power Distribution System Model Simplification Using Segment Substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiman, Andrew P.; McDermott, Thomas E.; Akcakaya, Murat; Reed, Gregory F.

    2017-01-01

    Quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation is used to simulate the behavior of distribution systems over long periods of time (typically hours to years). The technique involves repeatedly solving the load-flow problem for a distribution system model and is useful for distributed energy resource (DER) planning. When a QSTS simulation has a small time step and a long duration, the computational burden of the simulation can be a barrier to integration into utility workflows. One way to relieve the computational burden is to simplify the system model. The segment substitution method of simplifying distribution system models introduced in this paper offers model bus reduction of up to 98% with a simplification error as low as 0.2% (0.002 pu voltage). Finally, in contrast to existing methods of distribution system model simplification, which rely on topological inspection and linearization, the segment substitution method uses black-box segment data and an assumed simplified topology.

  15. The Evolution of the Phase Lags Associated with the Type-C Quasi-periodic Oscillation in GX 339–4 during the 2006/2007 Outburst

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Liang; Chen, Li [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Wang, Yanan; Méndez, Mariano [Kapteyn Astronomical Institute, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands); Qu, Jinlu [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, CAS, Beijing 100049 (China); Altamirano, Diego [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Belloni, Tomaso, E-mail: 201431160006@mail.bnu.edu.cn [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, via E. Bianchi 46, I-23807 Merate (Italy)

    2017-08-20

    We present the evolution of the phase lags associated with the type-C QPO in GX 339–4 during the rising phase of the 2006/2007 outburst. We find that the phase lags at the QPO frequency are always positive (hard) and show very different behavior between QPOs with frequencies below and above ∼1.7 Hz: when the QPO frequency is below ∼1.7 Hz, the phase lags increase both with QPO frequency and energy, while when the QPO frequency is above ∼1.7 Hz, the phase lags remain more or less constant. When the QPO frequency is higher than ∼1.7 Hz, a broad feature is always present in the lag–energy spectra at around 6.5 keV, suggesting that the reflection component may have a significant contribution to the phase lags. Below ∼1.7 Hz, the QPO rms first decreases with energy and then turns to almost flat, while above ∼1.7 Hz, the QPO rms increases with energy. During the transition from the low-hard state to the hard-intermediate state, the second harmonic and subharmonic of this QPO appear in the power density spectra. The second-harmonic and subharmonic phase lags show very similar evolutions for their centroid frequencies. However, the energy dependence of the second-harmonic and subharmonic phase lags are quite different. Our results suggest that, at different phases of the outburst, different mechanisms may be responsible for the phase lags of the QPO. We briefly discuss the possible scenarios for producing the lags.

  16. A cross-lagged structural equation model of relational aggression, physical aggression, and peer status in a Chinese culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Wan-Ling; Banny, Adrienne M; Kawabata, Yoshito; Crick, Nicki R; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen

    2013-01-01

    This short-term longitudinal study examined the associations among relational aggression, physical aggression, and peer status (i.e., acceptance, rejection, and perceived popularity) across three time points, six months apart, in a Taiwanese sample. Participants were 198 fifth grade students (94 girls and 104 boys; Mean age = 10.35 years) from Taipei, Taiwan. Study variables were assessed using peer nomination procedure. Results from the cross-lagged structural equation models demonstrated that there were longitudinal associations between relational aggression and each of the peer status constructs while only one longitudinal association was found for physical aggression such that physical aggression positively predicted subsequent peer rejection. The longitudinal associations did not vary with gender. Results also showed high stabilities of relational aggression, physical aggression, and the three peer status constructs over 1 year as well as high concurrent association between relational and physical aggression. In addition, relational aggression and physical aggression were concurrently related to less acceptance, more rejection, and less perceived popularity, especially at the outset of the study. Findings of this study demonstrated both similarities and differences in relation to previous literature in primarily Western cultures. This study also highlights the bidirectional and complex nature of the association between aggression and peer status, which appears to depend on the form of aggression and on the particular indicator of peer status under study. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Non-Gaussian probability distributions of solar wind fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marsch

    Full Text Available The probability distributions of field differences ∆x(τ=x(t+τ-x(t, where the variable x(t may denote any solar wind scalar field or vector field component at time t, have been calculated from time series of Helios data obtained in 1976 at heliocentric distances near 0.3 AU. It is found that for comparatively long time lag τ, ranging from a few hours to 1 day, the differences are normally distributed according to a Gaussian. For shorter time lags, of less than ten minutes, significant changes in shape are observed. The distributions are often spikier and narrower than the equivalent Gaussian distribution with the same standard deviation, and they are enhanced for large, reduced for intermediate and enhanced for very small values of ∆x. This result is in accordance with fluid observations and numerical simulations. Hence statistical properties are dominated at small scale τ by large fluctuation amplitudes that are sparsely distributed, which is direct evidence for spatial intermittency of the fluctuations. This is in agreement with results from earlier analyses of the structure functions of ∆x. The non-Gaussian features are differently developed for the various types of fluctuations. The relevance of these observations to the interpretation and understanding of the nature of solar wind magnetohydrodynamic (MHD turbulence is pointed out, and contact is made with existing theoretical concepts of intermittency in fluid turbulence.

  18. Effect of Dietary Countermeasures and Impact of Gravity on Renal Calculi Size Distributions Predicted by PBE-System and PBE-CFD Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassemi, M.; Thompson, D.; Goodenow, D.; Gokoglu, S.; Myers, J.

    2016-01-01

    Renal stone disease is not only a concern on earth but can conceivably pose a serious risk to the astronauts health and safety in Space. In this work, two different deterministic models based on a Population Balance Equation (PBE) analysis of renal stone formation are developed to assess the risks of critical renal stone incidence for astronauts during space travel. In the first model, the nephron is treated as a continuous mixed suspension mixed product removal crystallizer and the PBE for the nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi is coupled to speciation calculations performed by JESS. Predictions of stone size distributions in the kidney using this model indicate that the astronaut in microgravity is at noticeably greater but still subcritical risk and recommend administration of citrate and augmented hydration as effective means of minimizing and containing this risk. In the second model, the PBE analysis is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for flow of urine and transport of Calcium and Oxalate in the nephron to predict the impact of gravity on the stone size distributions. Results presented for realistic 3D tubule and collecting duct geometries, clearly indicate that agglomeration is the primary mode of size enhancement in both 1g and microgravity. 3D numerical simulations seem to further indicate that there will be an increased number of smaller stones developed in microgravity that will likely pass through the nephron in the absence of wall adhesion. However, upon reentry to a 1g (Earth) or 38g (Mars) partial gravitational fields, the renal calculi can lag behind the urinary flow in tubules that are adversely oriented with respect to the gravitational field and grow agglomerate to large sizes that are sedimented near the wall with increased propensity for wall adhesion, plaque formation, and risk to the astronauts.

  19. Overhead distribution line models for harmonics studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagpal, M.; Xu, W.; Dommel, H.W.

    1994-01-01

    Carson's formulae and Maxwell's potential coefficients are used for calculating the per unit length series impedances and shunt capacitances of the overhead lines. The per unit length values are then used for building the models, nominal pi-circuit, and equivalent pi-circuit at the harmonic frequencies. This paper studies the accuracy of these models for presenting the overhead distribution lines in steady-state harmonic solutions at frequencies up to 5 kHz. The models are verified with a field test on a 25 kV distribution line and the sensitivity of the models to ground resistivity, skin effect, and multiple grounding is reported.

  20. Modelling refrigerant distribution in minichannel evaporators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brix, Wiebke

    of the liquid and vapour in the inlet manifold. Combining non-uniform airflow and non-uniform liquid and vapour distribution shows that a non-uniform airflow distribution to some degree can be compensated by a suitable liquid and vapour distribution. Controlling the superheat out of the individual channels...... to be equal, results in a cooling capacity very close to the optimum. A sensitivity study considering parameter changes shows that the course of the pressure gradient in the channel is significant, considering the magnitude of the capacity reductions due to non-uniform liquid and vapour distribution and non......This thesis is concerned with numerical modelling of flow distribution in a minichannel evaporator for air-conditioning. The study investigates the impact of non-uniform airflow and non-uniform distribution of the liquid and vapour phases in the inlet manifold on the refrigerant mass flow...

  1. Rationalisation of distribution functions for models of nanoparticle magnetism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Hilo, M.; Chantrell, R.W.

    2012-01-01

    A formalism is presented which reconciles the use of different distribution functions of particle diameter in analytical models of the magnetic properties of nanoparticle systems. For the lognormal distribution a transformation is derived which shows that a distribution of volume fraction transforms into a lognormal distribution of particle number albeit with a modified median diameter. This transformation resolves an apparent discrepancy reported in Tournus and Tamion [Journal of Magnetism and Magnetic Materials 323 (2011) 1118]. - Highlights: ► We resolve a problem resulting from the misunderstanding of the nature. ► The nature of dispersion functions in models of nanoparticle magnetism. ► The derived transformation between distributions will be of benefit in comparing models and experimental results.

  2. Business Models and Regulation | Distributed Generation Interconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collaborative | NREL Business Models and Regulation Business Models and Regulation Subscribe to new business models and approaches. The growing role of distributed resources in the electricity system is leading to a shift in business models and regulation for electric utilities. These

  3. Tempered stable distributions stochastic models for multiscale processes

    CERN Document Server

    Grabchak, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This brief is concerned with tempered stable distributions and their associated Levy processes. It is a good text for researchers interested in learning about tempered stable distributions.  A tempered stable distribution is one which takes a stable distribution and modifies its tails to make them lighter. The motivation for this class comes from the fact that infinite variance stable distributions appear to provide a good fit to data in a variety of situations, but the extremely heavy tails of these models are not realistic for most real world applications. The idea of using distributions that modify the tails of stable models to make them lighter seems to have originated in the influential paper of Mantegna and Stanley (1994). Since then, these distributions have been extended and generalized in a variety of ways. They have been applied to a wide variety of areas including mathematical finance, biostatistics,computer science, and physics.

  4. A Genetically Informed Cross-lagged Analysis of Autistic-Like Traits and Affective Problems in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micalizzi, Lauren; Ronald, Angelica; Saudino, Kimberly J.

    2015-01-01

    A genetically informed cross-lagged model was applied to twin data to explore etiological links between autistic-like traits and affective problems in early childhood. The sample comprised 310 same-sex twin pairs (143 monozygotic and 167 dizygotic; 53% male). Autistic-like traits and affective problems were assessed at ages 2 and 3 using parent ratings. Both constructs were related within and across age (r = .30−.53) and showed moderate stability (r = .45−.54). Autistic-like traits and affective problems showed genetic and environmental influences at both ages. Whereas at age 2, the covariance between autistic-like traits and affective problems was entirely due to environmental influences (shared and nonshared), at age 3, genetic factors also contributed to the covariance between constructs. The stability paths, but not the cross-lagged paths, were significant, indicating that there is stability in both autistic-like traits and affective problems but they do not mutually influence each other across age. Stability effects were due to genetic, shared, and nonshared environmental influences. Substantial novel genetic and nonshared environmental influences emerge at age 3 and suggest change in the etiology of these constructs over time. During early childhood, autistic-like traits tend to occur alongside affective problems and partly overlapping genetic and environmental influences explain this association. PMID:26456961

  5. Cross-lagged structural equation models for the relationship between health-related state and behaviours and body bullying in adolescence: findings from longitudinal study ELANA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane S Straatmann

    Full Text Available We investigated the stability and the directionality of being body bullied and a set of four variables- 1 Body Mass Index (BMI, 2 moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA, 3 television time (TV and 4 video game/computer time (VG-, termed in the present study as 'health-related state and behaviours (HRSB'-across adolescence. The Adolescent Nutritional Assessment Longitudinal Study (ELANA is a cohort study conducted among middle school students from two public and four private schools in Rio de Janeiro-Brazil. We analysed data from 2010 (T1 and 2012 (T2 among 810 adolescents (aged 9-15 at T1. Gender-specific structural equation models (SEM were estimated, including autoregressive paths for the HRSB and being body bullied over time, correlations at T1 and T2, respectively, and cross-lagged effects. The results presented significant stability coefficients for almost all variables over time in both genders (except for MVPA in boys and girls and TV time among girls. There were positive correlations between BMI and being body bullied, as well as between TV and VG for boys (0.32, p<0.001 and 0.24, p<0.001, respectively and girls (0.30, p<0.001 and 0.30, p<0.001, respectively at T1. It remained significant at T2 (boys: 0.18, p<0.05 and 0.16, p<0.01; girls: 0.21, p<0.01 and 0.22, p<0.01, respectively. Examining the cross-lagged paths between being body bullied and HRSB, we observed that the reciprocal model provided the best fit for boys, indicating that BMI at T1 had a significant effect in being body bullied at T2 (0.12, p<0.05 and being body bullied at T1 had an effect on VG at T2 (0.14, p<0.01. Among girls the forward causation model showed the best fit, demonstrating a significant effect of being body bullied at T1 on VG at T2 (0.16, p<0.01. Apart from MVPA, both being body bullying and HRSB were largely stable across adolescence. For boys and girls alike, exposure to being body bullied seemed to increase their time spent on VG, while for boys

  6. Study of lag time of river chenab between marala barrage and khanki headworks using radioactive tracer technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, A.; Tariq, J.A.; Ahmad, N.; Iqbal, N.

    2001-05-01

    During the flood season, sometimes discharge peaks in two tributaries of the Indus River System coincide at the point of confluence and their cumulative effect threatens the downstream barrage/headworks. Reasonably accurate lag time (transit time) between different control points in relation to discharge helps mange flood routing more safely. As a part of S tudy of Lag Time of the Indus River Suystem , radioactive tracer experiment was conducted to determine the lag time between Marala Barrage and Khanki Headworks at the river Chenab. Discharge data shows that the maximum flood peak appears in August. In the monsoon period of the year 1999 the floods were low. So the radiotracer experiment was carried out at low discharge of about 538 m/sup 3/ sec/sup-1/ (19000 cusecs). An activity of about 2 Ci of /sup 82/Br radioactive tracer was injected instantaneously in the river at Marala on 1st September 1999 at 0640 hours. Monitoring of radioactivity by scintillation detectors (sodium iodide) was done at Khanki Headworks. The peak value of activity was found on September 2, 1999 at 0005 hours. The lag time was determined as 17 hours and 25 minutes. At this discharge level the river water travelled with the average speed of 3.69 km/hr. (author)

  7. Empirical evidence for multi-scaled controls on wildfire size distributions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Povak, N.; Hessburg, P. F., Sr.; Salter, R. B.

    2014-12-01

    Ecological theory asserts that regional wildfire size distributions are examples of self-organized critical (SOC) systems. Controls on SOC event-size distributions by virtue are purely endogenous to the system and include the (1) frequency and pattern of ignitions, (2) distribution and size of prior fires, and (3) lagged successional patterns after fires. However, recent work has shown that the largest wildfires often result from extreme climatic events, and that patterns of vegetation and topography may help constrain local fire spread, calling into question the SOC model's simplicity. Using an atlas of >12,000 California wildfires (1950-2012) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), we fit four different power-law models and broken-stick regressions to fire-size distributions across 16 Bailey's ecoregions. Comparisons among empirical fire size distributions across ecoregions indicated that most ecoregion's fire-size distributions were significantly different, suggesting that broad-scale top-down controls differed among ecoregions. One-parameter power-law models consistently fit a middle range of fire sizes (~100 to 10000 ha) across most ecoregions, but did not fit to larger and smaller fire sizes. We fit the same four power-law models to patch size distributions of aspect, slope, and curvature topographies and found that the power-law models fit to a similar middle range of topography patch sizes. These results suggested that empirical evidence may exist for topographic controls on fire sizes. To test this, we used neutral landscape modeling techniques to determine if observed fire edges corresponded with aspect breaks more often than expected by random. We found significant differences between the empirical and neutral models for some ecoregions, particularly within the middle range of fire sizes. Our results, combined with other recent work, suggest that controls on ecoregional fire size distributions are multi-scaled and likely are not purely SOC. California

  8. Real-time modeling and simulation of distribution feeder and distributed resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pawan

    The analysis of the electrical system dates back to the days when analog network analyzers were used. With the advent of digital computers, many programs were written for power-flow and short circuit analysis for the improvement of the electrical system. Real-time computer simulations can answer many what-if scenarios in the existing or the proposed power system. In this thesis, the standard IEEE 13-Node distribution feeder is developed and validated on a real-time platform OPAL-RT. The concept and the challenges of the real-time simulation are studied and addressed. Distributed energy resources include some of the commonly used distributed generation and storage devices like diesel engine, solar photovoltaic array, and battery storage system are modeled and simulated on a real-time platform. A microgrid encompasses a portion of an electric power distribution which is located downstream of the distribution substation. Normally, the microgrid operates in paralleled mode with the grid; however, scheduled or forced isolation can take place. In such conditions, the microgrid must have the ability to operate stably and autonomously. The microgrid can operate in grid connected and islanded mode, both the operating modes are studied in the last chapter. Towards the end, a simple microgrid controller modeled and simulated on the real-time platform is developed for energy management and protection for the microgrid.

  9. Distributed MAP in the SpinJa Model Checker

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Vijzelaar

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Spin in Java (SpinJa is an explicit state model checker for the Promela modelling language also used by the SPIN model checker. Designed to be extensible and reusable, the implementation of SpinJa follows a layered approach in which each new layer extends the functionality of the previous one. While SpinJa has preliminary support for shared-memory model checking, it did not yet support distributed-memory model checking. This tool paper presents a distributed implementation of a maximal accepting predecessors (MAP search algorithm on top of SpinJa.

  10. The effect of infection and lag screw fixation on revascularization and new bone deposition in membranous bone grafts in a rabbit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fialkov, J A; Phillips, J H; Walmsley, S L; Morava-Protzner, I

    1996-08-01

    We have suggested that rigid fixation of membranous bone grafts in the presence of infection may improve graft-recipient bone union by facilitating graft revascularzation. To test this hypothesis, we grafted autogenous membranous bone grafts to the mandibles of 94 New Zealand White rabbits. Lag screw fixation was applied in half the animals. The wounds were inoculated with a range of Staphylococcus aureus doses. Infected and noninfected rabbits were injected weekly over a 5-week course with fluorescein bone markers and with a marker of vascular endothelium (procion red) just prior to sacrifice. Revascularization and new bone deposition in the grafts were then quantified histologically for the 75 rabbits available for data collection. Infection decreased the amount of graft revascularized and the amount of new bone deposited for both rigidly fixated and nonfixated grafts. Grafts fixated with a lag screw showed a greater amount of revascularization and new bone deposition in the presence and absence of infection when compared with nonfixated grafts, supporting the hypothesis that rigid fixation of membranous bone grafts in the presence of infection may promote graft survival and union by improving revascularization and osteogenesis within the graft.

  11. Controlling line-edge roughness and reactive ion etch lag in sub-150 nm features in borophosphosilicate glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatnagar, Parijat; Panda, Siddhartha; Edleman, Nikki L.; Allen, Scott D.; Wise, Richard; Mahorowala, Arpan

    2007-01-01

    We have developed a reactive ion etch (RIE) process in borophosphosilicate glass (BPSG) for 150 nm line-and-space features, where line-edge roughness (LER) complemented with RIE lag becomes a major issue. Effect of flow rates and carbon-to-fluorine atomic ratio of fluorohydrocarbon gases was utilized to achieve acceptable process window allowing lower radio frequency powers therefore obtaining acceptable LER and RIE lag in the high-resolution features etched into BPSG

  12. Pathways out of poverty in lagging regions: evidence from rural western China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christiaensen, L.; Pan, L.; Wang, S.G.

    2013-01-01

    How to reduce poverty in lagging regions remains much debated and underserved with solid empirical evidence. This study illustrates an empirical methodology to analyze the pathways households followed out of poverty and to explore their potential in the future using 20002004 rural household panel

  13. Dynamics of DNA replication loops reveal temporal control of lagging-strand synthesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamdan, Samir M.; Loparo, Joseph J.; Takahashi, Masateru; Richardson, Charles C.; Oijen, Antoine M. van

    2009-01-01

    In all organisms, the protein machinery responsible for the replication of DNA, the replisome, is faced with a directionality problem. The antiparallel nature of duplex DNA permits the leading-strand polymerase to advance in a continuous fashion, but forces the lagging-strand polymerase to

  14. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential

  15. Orbital angular momentum parton distributions in quark models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scopetta, S.; Vento, V.

    2000-01-01

    At the low energy, hadronic, scale we calculate Orbital Angular Momentum (OAM) twist-two parton distributions for the relativistic MIT bag model and for nonrelativistic quark models. We reach the scale of the data by leading order evolution in perturbative QCD. We confirm that the contribution of quarks and gluons OAM to the nucleon spin grows with Q 2 , and it can be relevant at the experimental scale, even if it is negligible at the hadronic scale, irrespective of the model used. The sign and shape of the quark OAM distribution at high Q 2 may depend strongly on the relative size of the OAM and spin distributions at the hadronic scale. Sizeable quark OAM distributions at the hadronic scale, as proposed by several authors, can produce the dominant contribution to the nucleon spin at high Q 2 . (author)

  16. Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater is the principal source of drinking water in several parts of the world. Contamination of groundwater has become a serious health and environmental problem today. Human activities including industrial and agricultural activities are generally responsible for this contamination. Identification of groundwater pollution source is a major step in groundwater pollution remediation. Complete knowledge of pollution source in terms of its source characteristics is essential to adopt an effective remediation strategy. Groundwater pollution source is said to be identified completely when the source characteristics - location, strength and release period - are known. Identification of unknown groundwater pollution source is an ill-posed inverse problem. It becomes more difficult for real field conditions, when the lag time between the first reading at observation well and the time at which the source becomes active is not known. We developed a linked ANN-Optimization model for complete identification of an unknown groundwater pollution source. The model comprises two parts- an optimization model and an ANN model. Decision variables of linked ANN-Optimization model contain source location and release period of pollution source. An objective function is formulated using the spatial and temporal data of observed and simulated concentrations, and then minimized to identify the pollution source parameters. In the formulation of the objective function, we require the lag time which is not known. An ANN model with one hidden layer is trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to find the lag time. Different combinations of source locations and release periods are used as inputs and lag time is obtained as the output. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated for two and three dimensional case with error-free and erroneous data. Erroneous data was generated by adding uniformly distributed random error (error level 0-10%) to the analytically computed concentration

  17. The Transmuted Geometric-Weibull distribution: Properties, Characterizations and Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohdy M Nofal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new lifetime model called the transmuted geometric-Weibull distribution. Some of its structural properties including ordinary and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, probability weighted moments, Rényi and q-entropies and order statistics are derived. The maximum likelihood method is discussed to estimate the model parameters by means of Monte Carlo simulation study. A new location-scale regression model is introduced based on the proposed distribution. The new distribution is applied to two real data sets to illustrate its flexibility. Empirical results indicate that proposed distribution can be alternative model to other lifetime models available in the literature for modeling real data in many areas.

  18. Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use. For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997 that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy. In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

  19. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  20. Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

    2015-03-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

  1. Linear Power-Flow Models in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernstein, Andrey; Dall' Anese, Emiliano

    2017-05-26

    This paper considers multiphase unbalanced distribution systems and develops approximate power-flow models where bus-voltages, line-currents, and powers at the point of common coupling are linearly related to the nodal net power injections. The linearization approach is grounded on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC power-flow equations, and it is applicable to distribution systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. The proposed linear models can facilitate the development of computationally-affordable optimization and control applications -- from advanced distribution management systems settings to online and distributed optimization routines. Performance of the proposed models is evaluated on different test feeders.

  2. Correlation Structures of Correlated Binomial Models and Implied Default Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    S. Mori; K. Kitsukawa; M. Hisakado

    2006-01-01

    We show how to analyze and interpret the correlation structures, the conditional expectation values and correlation coefficients of exchangeable Bernoulli random variables. We study implied default distributions for the iTraxx-CJ tranches and some popular probabilistic models, including the Gaussian copula model, Beta binomial distribution model and long-range Ising model. We interpret the differences in their profiles in terms of the correlation structures. The implied default distribution h...

  3. Causes and treatments of lag screw's cut out after intramedullary nailing osteosinthesis for trochanteric fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazzotti, Gabriele; Matino, Giovanni; Tsatsis, Christos; Sacchetti, GianLuigi; Baudi, Paolo; Catani, Fabio

    2014-08-20

    Background. Superior cut-out of a lag screw remains a serious complication in the treatment of trochanteric or subtrochanteric fractures and it is related to many factors: the type of fracture, osteoporosis and the stability of fracture reduction. Little is known about the outcome after revision surgery for complications of the gamma nail. We assessed the outcome in patients who had revision surgery because of lag screw's cut out after gamma nailing for a trochanteric fracture.Material and Method. We present a study of 20 consecutive patients who underwent treatment after 20 cut-out of the lag screw fixation of a trochanteric fracture with Gamma Locking Nail from September 2004 to November 2010. In 16 patients hip prothesis was performed, in 1 the removal of the implant and in 3 the reosteosynthesis. We reviewed 13 patients: 10 total hip arthroplasty, 2 endoprothesis and 1 reosteosynthesis of nail and lag screw (mean follow up: 26 months, mean age: 73 years old), 7 patients died. Patients were reviewed retrospectively by an independent observer. Clinical evaluation was performed, Oxford score and Harris Hip score were measured. X-Ray examination was performed after a minimum of 12 months of follow up.Results. Mean Harris Hip Score mean was 67 and mean Oxford score was 32 in hip prothesis group (12 patients). We had several complications, Implant-related complications were: 2 ipometria > 2cm, 2 recurrent hip arthroplasty dislocations (1 reoperated), 4 persistent thigh pain. In only 4 patients none complications were observed. Another patient,  who had been subjected to reosteosinthesis, obtained better results (HHS:95, Oxford score:45) but with a 2 cm ipometria and occasional pain in the thigh.Conclusion. Cut out after gamma nail is consequent to biological or mechanical causes. Treatment of this complication is hip prosthesis (parzial or total hip arthroplasty), reosteosynthesis of the lag screw and/or the nail and the removal of the implant. Conversion to total

  4. Distributed hydrological modelling of the Senegal river basin - model construction and validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J.; Refsgaard, J.C.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2001-01-01

    A modified version of the physically-based distributed MIKE SHE model code was applied to the 375,000 km(2) Senegal River Basin. On the basis of conventional data from meteorological stations and readily accessible databases on topography, soil types, vegetation type, etc. three models with diffe......A modified version of the physically-based distributed MIKE SHE model code was applied to the 375,000 km(2) Senegal River Basin. On the basis of conventional data from meteorological stations and readily accessible databases on topography, soil types, vegetation type, etc. three models...

  5. Work-Family Conflict and Psychological Well-Being: Stability and Cross-Lagged Relations within One- and Six-Year Follow-Ups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantanen, Johanna; Kinnunen, Ulla; Feldt, Taru; Pulkkinen, Lea

    2008-01-01

    The rank-order stability and cross-lagged relations between work-to-family conflict (WFC), family-to-work conflict (FWC), and psychological well-being were examined in two longitudinal studies with full two-wave panel designs. In Study 1 (n = 365), the time lag was one year, and in Study 2 (n = 153), six years. The Structural Equation Modeling…

  6. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions based on a hybrid of mixed data sampling regression model and back propagation neural network in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xin; Han, Meng; Ding, Lili; Calin, Adrian Cantemir

    2018-01-01

    The accurate forecast of carbon dioxide emissions is critical for policy makers to take proper measures to establish a low carbon society. This paper discusses a hybrid of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model and BP (back propagation) neural network (MIDAS-BP model) to forecast carbon dioxide emissions. Such analysis uses mixed frequency data to study the effects of quarterly economic growth on annual carbon dioxide emissions. The forecasting ability of MIDAS-BP is remarkably better than MIDAS, ordinary least square (OLS), polynomial distributed lags (PDL), autoregressive distributed lags (ADL), and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The MIDAS-BP model is suitable for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions for both the short and longer term. This research is expected to influence the methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide emissions by improving the forecast accuracy. Empirical results show that economic growth has both negative and positive effects on carbon dioxide emissions that last 15 quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions are also affected by their own change within 3 years. Therefore, there is a need for policy makers to explore an alternative way to develop the economy, especially applying new energy policies to establish a low carbon society.

  7. A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clementi, F; Gallegati, M; Kaniadakis, G

    2012-01-01

    In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature. (paper)

  8. A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2012-12-01

    In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature.

  9. Clinical introduction of image lag correction for a cone beam CT system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stankovic, Uros; Ploeger, Lennert S.; Sonke, Jan-Jakob; van Herk, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    Image lag in the flat-panel detector used for Linac integrated cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) has a degrading effect on CBCT image quality. The most prominent visible artifact is the presence of bright semicircular structure in the transverse view of the scans, known also as radar artifact.

  10. Process and Outcome in Cardiac Rehabilitation: An Examination of Cross-Lagged Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evon, Donna M.; Burns, John W.

    2004-01-01

    Cardiac rehabilitation patients improve cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life, yet therapeutic processes that produce these changes remain unknown. A cross-lagged panel design was used to determine whether early-treatment enhancement of self-efficacy regarding abilities to change diet and exercise habits and the quality of the…

  11. Recovery of heart rate variability after treadmill exercise analyzed by lagged Poincaré plot and spectral characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ping; Hu, Sijung; Yu, Hongliu

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze the recovery of heart rate variability (HRV) after treadmill exercise and to investigate the autonomic nervous system response after exercise. Frequency domain indices, i.e., LF(ms 2 ), HF(ms 2 ), LF(n.u.), HF(n.u.) and LF/HF, and lagged Poincaré plot width (SD1 m ) and length (SD2 m ) were introduced for comparison between the baseline period (Pre-E) before treadmill running and two periods after treadmill running (Post-E1 and Post-E2). The correlations between lagged Poincaré plot indices and frequency domain indices were applied to reveal the long-range correlation between linear and nonlinear indices during the recovery of HRV. The results suggested entirely attenuated autonomic nervous activity to the heart following the treadmill exercise. After the treadmill running, the sympathetic nerves achieved dominance and the parasympathetic activity was suppressed, which lasted for more than 4 min. The correlation coefficients between lagged Poincaré plot indices and spectral power indices could separate not only Pre-E and two sessions after the treadmill running, but also the two sessions in recovery periods, i.e., Post-E1 and Post-E2. Lagged Poincaré plot as an innovative nonlinear method showed a better performance over linear frequency domain analysis and conventional nonlinear Poincaré plot.

  12. Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M

    2016-02-01

    Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.

  13. The importance of open data and software: Is energy research lagging behind?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfenninger, Stefan; DeCarolis, Joseph; Hirth, Lion; Quoilin, Sylvain; Staffell, Iain

    2017-01-01

    Energy policy often builds on insights gained from quantitative energy models and their underlying data. As climate change mitigation and economic concerns drive a sustained transformation of the energy sector, transparent and well-founded analyses are more important than ever. We assert that models and their associated data must be openly available to facilitate higher quality science, greater productivity through less duplicated effort, and a more effective science-policy boundary. There are also valid reasons why data and code are not open: ethical and security concerns, unwanted exposure, additional workload, and institutional or personal inertia. Overall, energy policy research ostensibly lags behind other fields in promoting more open and reproducible science. We take stock of the status quo and propose actionable steps forward for the energy research community to ensure that it can better engage with decision-makers and continues to deliver robust policy advice in a transparent and reproducible way. - Highlights: • Energy models and data are an important basis for energy policy. • Opening energy models and data benefits actors inside and outside of academia. • Reasons include higher quality science, greater productivity and recognition. • Private barriers must be overcome, but the private and public gains outweigh them. • We provide advice on how and why the community could coordinate a shift to openness.

  14. Modelling and analysis of distributed simulation protocols with distributed graph transformation

    OpenAIRE

    Lara, Juan de; Taentzer, Gabriele

    2005-01-01

    Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. J. de Lara, and G. Taentzer, "Modelling and analysis of distributed simulation protocols with distributed graph transformation...

  15. Projective-anticipating, projective and projective-lag synchronization of chaotic systems with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Cunfang; Guan Wei; Wang Yinghai

    2013-01-01

    We investigate different types of projective (projective-anticipating, projective and projective-lag) synchronization in unidirectionally nonlinearly coupled time-delayed chaotic systems with variable time delays. Based on the Krasovskii–Lyapunov approach, we find both the existence and sufficient stability conditions, using a general class of time-delayed chaotic systems related to optical bistable or hybrid optical bistable devices. Our method has the advantage that it requires only one nonlinearly coupled term to achieve different types of projective synchronization in time-delayed chaotic systems with variable time delays. Compared with other existing works, our result provides an easy way to achieve projective-anticipating, projective and projective-lag synchronization. Numerical simulations of the Ikeda system are given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. (paper)

  16. Three-Dimensional Unsteady Simulation of a Modern High Pressure Turbine Stage Using Phase Lag Periodicity: Analysis of Flow and Heat Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shyam, Vikram; Ameri, Ali; Luk, Daniel F.; Chen, Jen-Ping

    2010-01-01

    Unsteady three-dimensional RANS simulations have been performed on a highly loaded transonic turbine stage and results are compared to steady calculations as well as experiment. A low Reynolds number k- turbulence model is employed to provide closure for the RANS system. A phase-lag boundary condition is used in the periodic direction. This allows the unsteady simulation to be performed by using only one blade from each of the two rows. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of unsteadiness on rotor heat transfer and to glean any insight into unsteady flow physics. The role of the stator wake passing on the pressure distribution at the leading edge is also studied. The simulated heat transfer and pressure results agreed favorably with experiment. The time-averaged heat transfer predicted by the unsteady simulation is higher than the heat transfer predicted by the steady simulation everywhere except at the leading edge. The shock structure formed due to stator-rotor interaction was analyzed. Heat transfer and pressure at the hub and casing were also studied. Thermal segregation was observed that leads to the heat transfer patterns predicted by steady and unsteady simulations to be different.

  17. Analysis of the sensitivity and sample-furnace thermal-lag of a differential thermal analyzer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roura, P.; Farjas, J.

    2005-01-01

    The heat exchange between the horizontal furnace of a differential thermal analyzer (DTA) and the sample is analyzed with the aim of understanding the parameters governing the thermal signal. The resistance due to radiation and conduction through the gas has been calculated and compared to the experimental values of the thermal-lag between the sample and furnace and apparatus sensitivity. The overall evolution of these parameters with the temperature and their relative values are well understood by considering the temperature differences that arise between the sample and holder. Two RC thermal models are used for describing the apparatus performance at different temperature ranges. Finally, the possibility of improving the signal quality through the control of the leak resistances is stressed

  18. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frieda Beauregard

    Full Text Available Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839 covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study

  19. Function projective lag synchronization of fractional-order chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Sha; Yu Yong-Guang; Wang Hu; Rahmani Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Function projective lag synchronization of different structural fractional-order chaotic systems is investigated. It is shown that the slave system can be synchronized with the past states of the driver up to a scaling function matrix. According to the stability theorem of linear fractional-order systems, a nonlinear fractional-order controller is designed for the synchronization of systems with the same and different dimensions. Especially, for two different dimensional systems, the synchronization is achieved in both reduced and increased dimensions. Three kinds of numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the scheme. (general)

  20. Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plejdrup, M S; Gyldenkaerne, S

    2011-04-15

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

  1. MODELING COLLISIONAL CASCADES IN DEBRIS DISKS: STEEP DUST-SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gáspár, András; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Rieke, George H.; Özel, Feryal

    2012-01-01

    We explore the evolution of the mass distribution of dust in collision-dominated debris disks, using the collisional code introduced in our previous paper. We analyze the equilibrium distribution and its dependence on model parameters by evolving over 100 models to 10 Gyr. With our numerical models, we confirm that systems reach collisional equilibrium with a mass distribution that is steeper than the traditional solution by Dohnanyi. Our model yields a quasi-steady-state slope of n(m) ∼ m –1.88 [n(a) ∼ a –3.65 ] as a robust solution for a wide range of possible model parameters. We also show that a simple power-law function can be an appropriate approximation for the mass distribution of particles in certain regimes. The steeper solution has observable effects in the submillimeter and millimeter wavelength regimes of the electromagnetic spectrum. We assemble data for nine debris disks that have been observed at these wavelengths and, using a simplified absorption efficiency model, show that the predicted slope of the particle-mass distribution generates spectral energy distributions that are in agreement with the observed ones.

  2. Effect of Coating Solvent Ratio on the Drug Release Lag Time of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of hydro-alcohol coating solvent ratio on the surface texture and lag time of porous theophylline osmotic tablet. Methods: Porous theophylline osmotic pump tablets were formulated by direct compression and coated by spraying with varying ratios of water-alcohol ...

  3. Earnings announcement lag and non-mandatory disclosure impact on the cost of debt: Hong Kong empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achraf Guidara

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the association between voluntary disclosure, earnings announcement lag and the cost of debt in Hong Kong. The research sample consists of 20 listed companies in the Hong Kong Stock exchange over the period spanning from 2008 to 2011. A disclosure checklist is used to measure the extent of voluntary disclosure in companies ‘annual reports. Earnings announcement lag is proxied by the difference between the end of fiscal year and the publication date of financial statements. Results of this study confirm that voluntary disclosure and earnings announcements lag reduce the cost of debt in Hong Kong. These findings suggest that voluntary disclosures play an essential role in reducing cost of debt in Hong Kong context, and managers tend to disclose in early manner to reduce the information asymmetry between their firm and creditors. These findings may have policy implications for managers since they demonstrate that the extent of voluntary and timely disclosures affect the cost of debt.

  4. Development of vortex model with realistic axial velocity distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Kei; Ezure, Toshiki; Ohshima, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    A vortex is considered as one of significant phenomena which may cause gas entrainment (GE) and/or vortex cavitation in sodium-cooled fast reactors. In our past studies, the vortex is assumed to be approximated by the well-known Burgers vortex model. However, the Burgers vortex model has a simple but unreal assumption that the axial velocity component is horizontally constant, while in real the free surface vortex has the axial velocity distribution which shows large gradient in radial direction near the vortex center. In this study, a new vortex model with realistic axial velocity distribution is proposed. This model is derived from the steady axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equation as well as the Burgers vortex model, but the realistic axial velocity distribution in radial direction is considered, which is defined to be zero at the vortex center and to approach asymptotically to zero at infinity. As the verification, the new vortex model is applied to the evaluation of a simple vortex experiment, and shows good agreements with the experimental data in terms of the circumferential velocity distribution and the free surface shape. In addition, it is confirmed that the Burgers vortex model fails to calculate accurate velocity distribution with the assumption of uniform axial velocity. However, the calculation accuracy of the Burgers vortex model can be enhanced close to that of the new vortex model in consideration of the effective axial velocity which is calculated as the average value only in the vicinity of the vortex center. (author)

  5. A DISTRIBUTED HYPERMAP MODEL FOR INTERNET GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The rapid development of Internet technology makes it possible to integrate GIS with the Internet,forming Internet GIS.Internet GIS is based on a distributed client/server architecture and TCP/IP & IIOP.When constructing and designing Internet GIS,we face the problem of how to express information units of Internet GIS.In order to solve this problem,this paper presents a distributed hypermap model for Internet GIS.This model provides a solution to organize and manage Internet GIS information units.It also illustrates relations between two information units and in an internal information unit both on clients and servers.On the basis of this model,the paper contributes to the expressions of hypermap relations and hypermap operations.The usage of this model is shown in the implementation of a prototype system.

  6. Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

    2012-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

  7. Experimental Tailer like Thermal Lag Engine to obtain pressure and volume diagrams//Motor de Lag Térmico experimental tipo Tailer para obtener diagramas de presión y volumen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Fernández-Aballí-Altamirano

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThe Thermal Lag Engine (TLE patented by Peter Tailer’s is briefly introduced. The discussion about the thermodynamic working principle of this external combustion machine is presented. For this work the claims in literature have been studied by the authors to design and develop an experimental installation with the objective of measuring for the first time the pressure-volume (pV relationship of a TLE asdescribed by Tailer and West. The pV diagrams are presented here and support previous theoretical claims about the TLE. Their triangular form shows the effects described by West in the expansion and compression processes caused by the variation of the cold heat transfer area. Also the relationshipbetween the heat transfer capacity of the engine and its working frequency becomes apparent from the measurements, indicating that larger heater areas and limited cold heat transfer characteristics allow more work production per cycle at higher operating frequencies.Key words: thermal lag engine, pressure-volume diagrams, external combustion engines._______________________________________________________________________________ResumenSe introduce brevemente el Motor de Lag Térmico (MLT patentado por Peter Tailer y se esboza el debate científico sobre la termodinámica de esta máquina de combustión externa. A partir del estudio de los distintos puntos de vista los autores de este trabajo desarrollaron una instalación experimental con elobjetivo de medir por primera vez la relación presión-volumen (pV de un MLT como el descrito por Tailer y West. Los diagramas pV son presentados y apoyan los planteamientos teóricos previos sobre los MLT.Su forma triangular muestra los efectos descritos por West sobre los procesos de compresión y expansión debido a la exposición variable del área fría de intercambio de calor. Las mediciones pV muestran la relación que existe entre la capacidad de intercambio de calor del motor y su frecuencia de

  8. Inter-annual cascade effect on marine food web: A benthic pathway lagging nutrient supply to pelagic fish stock.

    Dire