U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains WRF model output. There are three months of data: July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. For each month, several simulations were made: A...
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ and CMAQ-VBS model output. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Files too large. It can be accessed through the following means: via EPA's NCC tape...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahm, L.; Nyberg, L.; Gidhagen, L.
1990-01-01
A dispersion model to be used off costal waters has been developed. The model has been applied to describe the migration of radionuclides in the Baltic sea. A summary of the results is presented here. (K.A.E)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Hirdman
2010-01-01
Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport, this paper studies the sources of equivalent black carbon (EBC, sulphate, light-scattering aerosols and ozone measured at the Arctic stations Zeppelin, Alert, Barrow and Summit during the years 2000–2007. These species are important pollutants and climate forcing agents, and sulphate and EBC are main components of Arctic haze. To determine where these substances originate, the measurement data were combined with calculations using FLEXPART, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The climatology of atmospheric transport from surrounding regions on a twenty-day time scale modelled by FLEXPART shows that the stations Zeppelin, Alert and Barrow are highly sensitive to surface emissions in the Arctic and to emissions in high-latitude Eurasia in winter. Emission sensitivities over southern Asia and southern North America are small throughout the year. The high-altitude station Summit is an order of magnitude less sensitive to surface emissions in the Arctic whereas emissions in the southern parts of the Northern Hemisphere continents are more influential relative to the other stations. Our results show that for EBC and sulphate measured at Zeppelin, Alert and Barrow, northern Eurasia is the dominant source region. For sulphate, Eastern Europe and the metal smelting industry in Norilsk are particularly important. For EBC, boreal forest fires also contribute in summer. No evidence for any substantial contribution to EBC from sources in southern Asia is found. European air masses are associated with low ozone concentrations in winter due to titration by nitric oxides, but are associated with high ozone concentrations in summer due to photochemical ozone formation. There is also a strong influence of ozone depletion events in the Arctic boundary layer on measured ozone concentrations in spring
Weiss, Michael; Krejcie, Tom C; Avram, Michael J
2006-08-01
We present an in vivo method for analyzing the distribution kinetics of physiological markers into their respective distribution volumes utilizing information provided by the relative dispersion of transit times. Arterial concentration-time curves of markers of the vascular space [indocyanine green (ICG)], extracellular fluid (inulin), and total body water (antipyrine) measured in awake dogs under control conditions and during phenylephrine or isoproterenol infusion were analyzed by a recirculatory model to estimate the relative dispersions of transit times across the systemic and pulmonary circulation. The transit time dispersion in the systemic circulation was used to calculate the whole body distribution clearance, and an interpretation is given in terms of a lumped organ model of blood-tissue exchange. As predicted by theory, this relative dispersion increased linearly with cardiac output, with a slope that was inversely related to solute diffusivity. The relative dispersion of the flow-limited indicator antipyrine exceeded that of ICG (as a measure of intravascular mixing) only slightly and was consistent with a diffusional equilibration time in the extravascular space of approximately 10 min, except during phenylephrine infusion, which led to an anomalously high relative dispersion. A change in cardiac output did not alter the heterogeneity of capillary transit times of ICG. The results support the view that the relative dispersions of transit times in the systemic and pulmonary circulation estimated from solute disposition data in vivo are useful measures of whole body distribution kinetics of indicators and endogenous substances. This is the first model that explains the effect of flow and capillary permeability on whole body distribution of solutes without assuming well-mixed compartments.
Model output: fact or artefact?
Melsen, Lieke
2015-04-01
As a third-year PhD-student, I relatively recently entered the wonderful world of scientific Hydrology. A science that has many pillars that directly impact society, for example with the prediction of hydrological extremes (both floods and drought), climate change, applications in agriculture, nature conservation, drinking water supply, etcetera. Despite its demonstrable societal relevance, hydrology is often seen as a science between two stools. Like Klemeš (1986) stated: "By their academic background, hydrologists are foresters, geographers, electrical engineers, geologists, system analysts, physicists, mathematicians, botanists, and most often civil engineers." Sometimes it seems that the engineering genes are still present in current hydrological sciences, and this results in pragmatic rather than scientific approaches for some of the current problems and challenges we have in hydrology. Here, I refer to the uncertainty in hydrological modelling that is often neglected. For over thirty years, uncertainty in hydrological models has been extensively discussed and studied. But it is not difficult to find peer-reviewed articles in which it is implicitly assumed that model simulations represent the truth rather than a conceptualization of reality. For instance in trend studies, where data is extrapolated 100 years ahead. Of course one can use different forcing datasets to estimate the uncertainty of the input data, but how to prevent that the output is not a model artefact, caused by the model structure? Or how about impact studies, e.g. of a dam impacting river flow. Measurements are often available for the period after dam construction, so models are used to simulate river flow before dam construction. Both are compared in order to qualify the effect of the dam. But on what basis can we tell that the model tells us the truth? Model validation is common nowadays, but validation only (comparing observations with model output) is not sufficient to assume that a
An expert system for dispersion model interpretation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.
1988-10-01
A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs
Working document dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dop, H. van
1988-01-01
This report is a summary of the most important results from June 1985 of the collaboration of the RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health and Environment Hygiene) and KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorologic Institute) on the domain of dispersion models. It contains a short description of the actual SO x /NO x -model. Furthermore it contains recommendations for modifications of some numerical-mathematical aspects and an impulse to a more complete description of chemical processes in the atmosphere and the (wet) deposition process. A separate chapter is devoted to the preparation of meteorologic data which are relevant for dispersion as well as atmospheric chemistry and deposition. This report serves as working document for the final formulation of a acidifying- and oxidant-model. (H.W.). 69 refs.; 51 figs.; 13 tabs.; 3 schemes
Dispersion compensated mid-infrared quantum cascade laser frequency comb with high power output
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Q. Y. Lu
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Chromatic dispersion control plays an underlying role in optoelectronics and spectroscopy owing to its enhancement to nonlinear interactions by reducing the phase mismatching. This is particularly important to optical frequency combs based on quantum cascade lasers which require negligible dispersions for efficient mode locking of the dispersed modes into equally spaced comb modes. Here, we demonstrated a dispersion compensated mid-IR quantum cascade laser frequency comb with high power output at room temperature. A low-loss dispersive mirror has been engineered to compensate the device’s dispersion residue for frequency comb generation. Narrow intermode beating linewidths of 40 Hz in the comb-working currents were identified with a high power output of 460 mW and a broad spectral coverage of 80 cm-1. This dispersion compensation technique will enable fast spectroscopy and high-resolution metrology based on QCL combs with controlled dispersion and suppressed noise.
Utilities for high performance dispersion model PHYSIC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamazawa, Hiromi
1992-09-01
The description and usage of the utilities for the dispersion calculation model PHYSIC were summarized. The model was developed in the study of developing high performance SPEEDI with the purpose of introducing meteorological forecast function into the environmental emergency response system. The procedure of PHYSIC calculation consists of three steps; preparation of relevant files, creation and submission of JCL, and graphic output of results. A user can carry out the above procedure with the help of the Geographical Data Processing Utility, the Model Control Utility, and the Graphic Output Utility. (author)
Biophysical models of larval dispersal in the Benguela Current ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We synthesise and update results from the suite of biophysical, larval-dispersal models developed in the Benguela Current ecosystem. Biophysical models of larval dispersal use outputs of physical hydrodynamic models as inputs to individual-based models in which biological processes acting during the larval life are ...
Problems in Modelling Charge Output Accelerometers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomczyk Krzysztof
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The paper presents major issues associated with the problem of modelling change output accelerometers. The presented solutions are based on the weighted least squares (WLS method using transformation of the complex frequency response of the sensors. The main assumptions of the WLS method and a mathematical model of charge output accelerometers are presented in first two sections of this paper. In the next sections applying the WLS method to estimation of the accelerometer model parameters is discussed and the associated uncertainties are determined. Finally, the results of modelling a PCB357B73 charge output accelerometer are analysed in the last section of this paper. All calculations were executed using the MathCad software program. The main stages of these calculations are presented in Appendices A−E.
Multi-model MPC with output feedback
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. M. Perez
2014-03-01
Full Text Available In this work, a new formulation is presented for the model predictive control (MPC of a process system that is represented by a finite set of models, each one corresponding to a different operating point. The general case is considered of systems with stable and integrating outputs in closed-loop with output feedback. For this purpose, the controller is based on a non-minimal order model where the state is built with the measured outputs and the manipulated inputs of the control system. Therefore, the state can be considered as perfectly known and, consequently, there is no need to include a state observer in the control loop. This property of the proposed modeling approach is convenient to extend previous stability results of the closed loop system with robust MPC controllers based on state feedback. The controller proposed here is based on the solution of two optimization problems that are solved sequentially at the same time step. The method is illustrated with a simulated example of the process industry. The rigorous simulation of the control of an adiabatic flash of a multi-component hydrocarbon mixture illustrates the application of the robust controller. The dynamic simulation of this process is performed using EMSO - Environment Model Simulation and Optimization. Finally, a comparison with a linear MPC using a single model is presented.
Modeling volcanic ash dispersal
CERN. Geneva
2010-01-01
The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...
Improving practical atmospheric dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hunt, J.C.R.; Hudson, B.; Thomson, D.J.
1992-01-01
The new generation of practical atmospheric dispersion model (for short range ≤ 30 km) are based on dispersion science and boundary layer meteorology which have widespread international acceptance. In addition, recent improvements in computer skills and the widespread availability of small powerful computers make it possible to have new regulatory models which are more complex than the previous generation which were based on charts and simple formulae. This paper describes the basis of these models and how they have developed. Such models are needed to satisfy the urgent public demand for sound, justifiable and consistent environmental decisions. For example, it is preferable that the same models are used to simulate dispersion in different industries; in many countries at present different models are used for emissions from nuclear and fossil fuel power stations. The models should not be so simple as to be suspect but neither should they be too complex for widespread use; for example, at public inquiries in Germany, where simple models are mandatory, it is becoming usual to cite the results from highly complex computational models because the simple models are not credible. This paper is written in a schematic style with an emphasis on tables and diagrams. (au) (22 refs.)
Quantum-optical input-output relations for dispersive and lossy multilayer dielectric plates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gruner, T.; Welsch, D.
1996-01-01
Using the Green-function approach to the problem of quantization of the phenomenological Maxwell theory, the propagation of quantized radiation through dispersive and absorptive multilayer dielectric plates is studied. Input-output relations are derived, with special emphasis on the determination of the quantum noise generators associated with the absorption of radiation inside the dielectric matter. The input-output relations are used to express arbitrary correlation functions of the outgoing field in terms of correlation functions of the incoming field and those of the noise generators. To illustrate the theory, photons at dielectric tunneling barriers are considered. It is shown that inclusion in the calculations of losses in the photonic band gaps may substantially change the barrier traversal times. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society
Stochastic models for atmospheric dispersion
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
2003-01-01
Simple stochastic differential equation models have been applied by several researchers to describe the dispersion of tracer particles in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and to form the basis for computer simulations of particle paths. To obtain the drift coefficient, empirical vertical...... positions close to the boundaries. Different rules have been suggested in the literature with justifications based on simulation studies. Herein the relevant stochastic differential equation model is formulated in a particular way. The formulation is based on the marginal transformation of the position...... velocity distributions that depend on height above the ground both with respect to standard deviation and skewness are substituted into the stationary Fokker/Planck equation. The particle position distribution is taken to be uniform *the well/mixed condition( and also a given dispersion coefficient...
Dispersion modeling by kinematic simulation: Cloud dispersion model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fung, J C H; Perkins, R J
2008-01-01
A new technique has been developed to compute mean and fluctuating concentrations in complex turbulent flows (tidal current near a coast and deep ocean). An initial distribution of material is discretized into any small clouds which are advected by a combination of the mean flow and large scale turbulence. The turbulence can be simulated either by kinematic simulation (KS) or direct numerical simulation. The clouds also diffuse relative to their centroids; the statistics for this are obtained from a separate calculation of the growth of individual clouds in small scale turbulence, generated by KS. The ensemble of discrete clouds is periodically re-discretized, to limit the size of the small clouds and prevent overlapping. The model is illustrated with simulations of dispersion in uniform flow, and the results are compared with analytic, steady state solutions. The aim of this study is to understand how pollutants disperses in a turbulent flow through a numerical simulation of fluid particle motion in a random flow field generated by Fourier modes. Although this homogeneous turbulent is rather a 'simple' flow, it represents a building block toward understanding pollutant dispersion in more complex flow. The results presented here are preliminary in nature, but we expect that similar qualitative results should be observed in a genuine turbulent flow.
Yang, Tao; Zhang, Qi; Hao, Yue; Zhou, Xin-hui; Yi, Ming-dong; Wei, Wei; Huang, Wei; Li, Xing-ao
2017-10-01
A multiple-input multiple-output visible light communication (VLC) system based on disorder dispersion components is presented. Instead of monochromatic sources and large size photodetectors used in the traditional VLC systems, broadband sources with different spectra act as the transmitters and a compact imaging chip sensor accompanied by a disorder dispersion component and a calculating component serve as the receivers in the proposed system. This system has the merits of small size, more channels, simple structure, easy integration, and low cost. Simultaneously, the broadband sources are suitable to act as illumination sources for their white color. A regularized procedure is designed to solve a matrix equation for decoding the signals at the receivers. A proof-of-concept experiment using on-off keying modulation has been done to prove the feasibility of the design. The experimental results show that the signals decoded by the receivers fit well with those generated from the transmitters, but the bit error ratio is increased with the number of the signal channels. The experimental results can be further improved using a high-speed charge-coupled device, decreasing noises, and increasing the distance between the transmitters and the receivers.
User assessment of smoke-dispersion models for wildland biomass burning.
Steve Breyfogle; Sue A. Ferguson
1996-01-01
Several smoke-dispersion models, which currently are available for modeling smoke from biomass burns, were evaluated for ease of use, availability of input data, and output data format. The input and output components of all models are listed, and differences in model physics are discussed. Each model was installed and run on a personal computer with a simple-case...
Pollen Forecast and Dispersion Modelling
Costantini, Monica; Di Giuseppe, Fabio; Medaglia, Carlo Maria; Travaglini, Alessandro; Tocci, Raffaella; Brighetti, M. Antonia; Petitta, Marcello
2014-05-01
The aim of this study is monitoring, mapping and forecast of pollen distribution for the city of Rome using in-situ measurements of 10 species of common allergenic pollens and measurements of PM10. The production of daily concentration maps, associated to a mobile phone app, are innovative compared to existing dedicated services to people who suffer from respiratory allergies. The dispersal pollen is one of the most well-known causes of allergic disease that is manifested by disorders of the respiratory functions. Allergies are the third leading cause of chronic disease and it is estimated that tens millions of people in Italy suffer from it. Recent works reveal that during the last few years there was a progressive increase of affected subjects, especially in urban areas. This situation may depend: on the ability to transport of pollutants, on the ability to react between pollutants and pollen and from a combination of other irritants, existing in densely populated and polluted urban areas. The methodology used to produce maps is based on in-situ measurements time series relative to 2012, obtained from networks of air quality and pollen stations in the metropolitan area of Rome. The monitoring station aerobiological of University of Rome "Tor Vergata" is located at the Department of Biology. The instrument used to pollen monitoring is a volumetric sampler type Hirst (Hirst 1952), Model 2000 VPPS Lanzoni; the data acquisition is carried out as reported in Standard UNI 11008:2004 - "Qualità dell'aria - Metodo di campionamento e conteggio dei granuli pollinici e delle spore fungine aerodisperse" - the protocol that describes the procedure for measuring of the concentration of pollen grains and fungal spores dispersed into the atmosphere, and reported in the "Manuale di gestione e qualità della R.I.M.A" (Travaglini et. al. 2009). All 10 allergenic pollen are monitored since 1996. At Tor Vergata university is also operating a meteorological station (SP2000, CAE
A two stage data envelopment analysis model with undesirable output
Shariff Adli Aminuddin, Adam; Izzati Jaini, Nur; Mat Kasim, Maznah; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd
2017-09-01
The dependent relationship among the decision making units (DMU) is usually assumed to be non-existent in the development of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The dependency can be represented by the multi-stage DEA model, where the outputs from the precedent stage will be the inputs for the latter stage. The multi-stage DEA model evaluate both the efficiency score for each stages and the overall efficiency of the whole process. The existing multi stage DEA models do not focus on the integration with the undesirable output, in which the higher input will generate lower output unlike the normal desirable output. This research attempts to address the inclusion of such undesirable output and investigate the theoretical implication and potential application towards the development of multi-stage DEA model.
Mathematical model of accelerator output characteristics and their calculation on a computer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mishulina, O.A.; Ul'yanina, M.N.; Kornilova, T.V.
1975-01-01
A mathematical model is described of output characteristics of a linear accelerator. The model is a system of differential equations. Presence of phase limitations is a specific feature of setting the problem which makes it possible to ensure higher simulation accuracy and determine a capture coefficient. An algorithm is elaborated of computing output characteristics based upon the mathematical model suggested. A capture coefficient, coordinate expectation characterizing an average phase value of the beam particles, coordinate expectation characterizing an average value of the reverse relative velocity of the beam particles as well as dispersion of these coordinates are output characteristics of the accelerator. Calculation methods of the accelerator output characteristics are described in detail. The computations have been performed on the BESM-6 computer, the characteristics computing time being 2 min 20 sec. Relative error of parameter computation averages 10 -2
Discrete dispersion models and their Tweedie asymptotics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Bent; Kokonendji, Célestin C.
2016-01-01
The paper introduce a class of two-parameter discrete dispersion models, obtained by combining convolution with a factorial tilting operation, similar to exponential dispersion models which combine convolution and exponential tilting. The equidispersed Poisson model has a special place in this ap......The paper introduce a class of two-parameter discrete dispersion models, obtained by combining convolution with a factorial tilting operation, similar to exponential dispersion models which combine convolution and exponential tilting. The equidispersed Poisson model has a special place...... in this approach, whereas several overdispersed discrete distributions, such as the Neyman Type A, Pólya-Aeppli, negative binomial and Poisson-inverse Gaussian, turn out to be Poisson-Tweedie factorial dispersion models with power dispersion functions, analogous to ordinary Tweedie exponential dispersion models...... with power variance functions. Using the factorial cumulant generating function as tool, we introduce a dilation operation as a discrete analogue of scaling, generalizing binomial thinning. The Poisson-Tweedie factorial dispersion models are closed under dilation, which in turn leads to a Poisson...
NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American...
NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American Carbon...
Modelling airborne dispersion of coarse particulate material
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Apsley, D.D.
1989-03-01
Methods of modelling the airborne dispersion and deposition of coarse particulates are presented, with the emphasis on the heavy particles identified as possible constituents of releases from damaged AGR fuel. The first part of this report establishes the physical characteristics of the irradiated particulate in airborne emissions from AGR stations. The second part is less specific and describes procedures for extending current dispersion/deposition models to incorporate a coarse particulate component: the adjustment to plume spread parameters, dispersion from elevated sources and dispersion in conjunction with building effects and plume rise. (author)
Validation of models with multivariate output
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rebba, Ramesh; Mahadevan, Sankaran
2006-01-01
This paper develops metrics for validating computational models with experimental data, considering uncertainties in both. A computational model may generate multiple response quantities and the validation experiment might yield corresponding measured values. Alternatively, a single response quantity may be predicted and observed at different spatial and temporal points. Model validation in such cases involves comparison of multiple correlated quantities. Multiple univariate comparisons may give conflicting inferences. Therefore, aggregate validation metrics are developed in this paper. Both classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing are investigated for this purpose, using multivariate analysis. Since, commonly used statistical significance tests are based on normality assumptions, appropriate transformations are investigated in the case of non-normal data. The methodology is implemented to validate an empirical model for energy dissipation in lap joints under dynamic loading
Wamelink, G.W.W.; Jochem, R.; Greft, van der J.G.M.; Franke, J.; Malinowska, A.H.; Geertsema, W.; Prins, A.H.; Ozinga, W.A.; Hoek, van der D.C.J.; Grashof-Bokdam, C.J.
2014-01-01
Due to human activities many natural habitats have become isolated. As a result the dispersal of many plant species is hampered. Isolated populations may become extinct and have a lower probability to become reestablished in a natural way. Moreover, plant species may be forced to migrate to new
Statistical Compression for Climate Model Output
Hammerling, D.; Guinness, J.; Soh, Y. J.
2017-12-01
Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus is it important to develop methods for representing the full datasets by smaller compressed versions. We propose a statistical compression and decompression algorithm based on storing a set of summary statistics as well as a statistical model describing the conditional distribution of the full dataset given the summary statistics. We decompress the data by computing conditional expectations and conditional simulations from the model given the summary statistics. Conditional expectations represent our best estimate of the original data but are subject to oversmoothing in space and time. Conditional simulations introduce realistic small-scale noise so that the decompressed fields are neither too smooth nor too rough compared with the original data. Considerable attention is paid to accurately modeling the original dataset-one year of daily mean temperature data-particularly with regard to the inherent spatial nonstationarity in global fields, and to determining the statistics to be stored, so that the variation in the original data can be closely captured, while allowing for fast decompression and conditional emulation on modest computers.
Modeling of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baklouti, Nada
2010-01-01
This work is a prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide from a chronic rejection of the nuclear power generating plant that can be located in one of the Tunisian sites: Skhira or Bizerte. Also it contains a study of acute rejection 'Chernobyl accident' which was the reference for the validation of GENII the code of modeling of atmospheric dispersion.
Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben
1995-01-01
to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether...... this calls for an array of co-operating submodels for a sufficient coverage of the options. In all the required fields there is some scientific background for numerical model approaches, and some submodels have been proposed. Because of its multidisciplinary character a synthesized approach is still lacking...
Modeling electrical dispersion phenomena in Earth materials
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Patella
2008-06-01
Full Text Available It is illustrated that IP phenomena in rocks can be described using conductivity dispersion models deduced as solutions to a 2nd-order linear differential equation describing the motion of a charged particle immersed in an external electrical field. Five dispersion laws are discussed, namely: the non-resonant positive IP model, which leads to the classical Debye-type dispersion law and by extension to the Cole-Cole model, largely used in current practice; the non-resonant negative IP model, which allows negative chargeability values, known in metals at high frequencies, to be explained as an intrinsic physical property of earth materials in specific field cases; the resonant flat, positive or negative IP models, which can explain the presence of peak effects at specific frequencies superimposed on flat, positive or negative dispersion spectra.
The multi-factor energy input–output model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guevara, Zeus; Domingos, Tiago
2017-01-01
Energy input–output analysis (EIO analysis) is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy. However, it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a novel energy input–output model, the multi-factor energy input–output model (MF-EIO model), which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid-unit input–output system of the economy. This model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy. It characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors: two energy efficiency indicators; two characteristics of end-use energy consumption; and three economic features of the rest of the economy. Moreover, it is consistent with the standard model for EIO analysis, i.e., the hybrid-unit model. This paper also introduces an approximate version of the MF-EIO model, which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers, but requires less data processing. The latter is composed by two linked models: a model of the energy sector in physical units, and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units. In conclusion, the proposed modelling framework improves EIO analysis and extends EIO applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy. - Highlights: • A novel energy input–output model is introduced. • It allows a more adequate analysis of energy flows than current models. • It describes energy flows according to processes of energy conversion and use. • It can be used for other environmental applications (material use and emissions). • An approximate version of the model is introduced, simpler and less data intensive.
Resuspension parameters for TRAC dispersion model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Langer, G.
1987-01-01
Resuspension factors for the wind erosion of soil contaminated with plutonium are necessary to run the Rocky Flats Plant Terrain Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC). The model predicts the dispersion and resulting population dose due to accidental plutonium releases
Alternative to Ritt's pseudodivision for finding the input-output equations of multi-output models.
Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; DiStefano, Joseph J
2012-09-01
Differential algebra approaches to structural identifiability analysis of a dynamic system model in many instances heavily depend upon Ritt's pseudodivision at an early step in analysis. The pseudodivision algorithm is used to find the characteristic set, of which a subset, the input-output equations, is used for identifiability analysis. A simpler algorithm is proposed for this step, using Gröbner Bases, along with a proof of the method that includes a reduced upper bound on derivative requirements. Efficacy of the new algorithm is illustrated with several biosystem model examples. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Modelling of pollution dispersion in atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borysiewicz, M.; Stankiewicz, R.
1994-01-01
The paper contains the review of the mathematical foundation of atmospheric dispersion models. The atmospheric phenomena relevant to atmospheric dispersion model are discussed. In particular the parametrization of processes with time and space scales smaller than numerical grid size, limited by available computer power, is presented. The special attention was devoted to similarity theory and parametrization of boundary layer. The numerical methods are analysed and the drawbacks of the method are presented. (author). 99 refs, 15 figs, 3 tabs
Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals
Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun
2008-01-01
Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between
Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.
2011-01-01
The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)
Atmospheric dispersion models of radioactivity releases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oza, R.B.
2016-01-01
In view of the rapid industrialization in recent time, atmospheric dispersion models have become indispensible 'tools' to ensure that the effects of releases are well within the acceptable limits set by the regulatory authority. In the case of radioactive releases from the nuclear facility, though negligible in quantity and many a times not even measurable, it is required to demonstrate the compliance of these releases to the regulatory limits set by the regulatory authority by carrying out radiological impact assessment. During routine operations of nuclear facility, the releases are so low that environmental impact is usually assessed with the help of atmospheric dispersion models as it is difficult to distinguish negligible contribution of nuclear facility to relatively high natural background radiation. The accidental releases from nuclear facility, though with negligible probability of occurrence, cannot be ruled out. In such cases, the atmospheric dispersion models are of great help to emergency planners for deciding the intervention actions to minimize the consequences in public domain and also to workout strategies for the management of situation. In case of accidental conditions, the atmospheric dispersion models are also utilized for the estimation of probable quantities of radionuclides which might have got released to the atmosphere. Thus, atmospheric dispersion models are an essential tool for nuclear facility during routine operation as well as in the case of accidental conditions
Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.
2003-01-01
Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the
An Empirical Model of Wage Dispersion with Sorting
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bagger, Jesper; Lentz, Rasmus
(submodular). The model is estimated on Danish matched employer-employee data. We find evidence of positive assortative matching. In the estimated equilibrium match distribution, the correlation between worker skill and firm productivity is 0.12. The assortative matching has a substantial impact on wage......This paper studies wage dispersion in an equilibrium on-the-job-search model with endogenous search intensity. Workers differ in their permanent skill level and firms differ with respect to productivity. Positive (negative) sorting results if the match production function is supermodular...... to mismatch by asking how much greater output would be if the estimated population of matches were perfectly positively assorted. In this case, output would increase by 7.7%....
Spatially varying dispersion to model breakthrough curves.
Li, Guangquan
2011-01-01
Often the water flowing in a karst conduit is a combination of contaminated water entering at a sinkhole and cleaner water released from the limestone matrix. Transport processes in the conduit are controlled by advection, mixing (dilution and dispersion), and retention-release. In this article, a karst transport model considering advection, spatially varying dispersion, and dilution (from matrix seepage) is developed. Two approximate Green's functions are obtained using transformation of variables, respectively, for the initial-value problem and for the boundary-value problem. A numerical example illustrates that mixing associated with strong spatially varying conduit dispersion can cause strong skewness and long tailing in spring breakthrough curves. Comparison of the predicted breakthrough curve against that measured from a dye-tracing experiment between Ames Sink and Indian Spring, Northwest Florida, shows that the conduit dispersivity can be as large as 400 m. Such a large number is believed to imply strong solute interaction between the conduit and the matrix and/or multiple flow paths in a conduit network. It is concluded that Taylor dispersion is not dominant in transport in a karst conduit, and the complicated retention-release process between mobile- and immobile waters may be described by strong spatially varying conduit dispersion. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.
Investigation of solar photovoltaic module power output by various models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jakhrani, A.Q.; Othman, A.K.; Rigit, A.R.H.; Baini, R.
2012-01-01
This paper aims to investigate the power output of a solar photovoltaic module by various models and to formulate a suitable model for predicting the performance of solar photovoltaic modules. The model was used to correct the configurations of solar photovoltaic systems for sustainable power supply. Different types of models namely the efficiency, power, fill factor and current-voltage characteristic curve models have been reviewed. It was found that the examined models predicted a 40% yield of the rated power in cloudy weather conditions and up to 80% in clear skies. The models performed well in terms of electrical efficiency in cloudy days if the influence of low irradiance were incorporated. Both analytical and numerical methods were employed in the formulation of improved model which gave +- 2% error when compared with the rated power output of solar photovoltaic module. The proposed model is more practical in terms of number of variables used and acceptable performance in humid atmospheres. Therefore, it could be useful for the estimation of power output of the solar photovoltaic systems in Sarawak region. (author)
Modeling of corium dispersion in DCH accidents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Q.
1996-01-01
A model that governs the dispersion process in the direct containment heating (DCH) reactor accident scenario is developed by a stepwise approach. In this model, the whole transient is subdivided into four phases with an isothermal assumption. These are the liquid and gas discharge, the liquid film flow in the cavity before gas blowdown, the liquid and gas flow in the cavity with droplet entrainment, and the liquid transport and re-entrainment in the subcompartment. In each step, the dominant driving mechanisms are identified to construct the governing equations. By combining all the steps together, the corium dispersion information is obtained in detail. The key parameters are predicted quantitatively. These include the fraction of liquid that flows out of the cavity before gas blowdown, the dispersion fraction and the mean droplet diameter in the cavity, the cavity pressure rise due to the liquid friction force, and the dispersion fractions in the containment via different paths. Compared with the data of the 1:10 scale experiments carried out at Purdue University, fairly good agreement is obtained. A stand-alone prediction of the corium dispersion under prototypic Zion reactor conditions is carried out by assuming an isothermal process without chemical reactions. (orig.)
A model to predict the power output from wind farms
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)
1997-12-31
This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.
Advection models of longitudinal dispersion in rivers
Kranenburg, C.
1996-01-01
A derivation is presented of a general cross-section averaged model of longitudinal dispersion, which is based on the notion of the advection of tracer particles. Particle displacement length and particle travel time are conceived as stochastic variables, and a joint probability density function is
System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker
2015-01-01
of this paper is to analyse convergence performance for the external loop and to illustrate how an improper linkage between the converging parts can lead to substantial uncertainty in the final output. Although this loop is crucial for the performance of large-scale transport models it has not been analysed...... much in the literature. The paper first investigates several variants of the Method of Successive Averages (MSA) by simulation experiments on a toy-network. It is found that the simulation experiments produce support for a weighted MSA approach. The weighted MSA approach is then analysed on large......-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened...
Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters
Al Ahmad, Mahmoud
2011-04-30
Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.
Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters
Al Ahmad, Mahmoud; Alshareef, Husam N.
2011-01-01
Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.
Chaotic Lagrangian models for turbulent relative dispersion.
Lacorata, Guglielmo; Vulpiani, Angelo
2017-04-01
A deterministic multiscale dynamical system is introduced and discussed as a prototype model for relative dispersion in stationary, homogeneous, and isotropic turbulence. Unlike stochastic diffusion models, here trajectory transport and mixing properties are entirely controlled by Lagrangian chaos. The anomalous "sweeping effect," a known drawback common to kinematic simulations, is removed through the use of quasi-Lagrangian coordinates. Lagrangian dispersion statistics of the model are accurately analyzed by computing the finite-scale Lyapunov exponent (FSLE), which is the optimal measure of the scaling properties of dispersion. FSLE scaling exponents provide a severe test to decide whether model simulations are in agreement with theoretical expectations and/or observation. The results of our numerical experiments cover a wide range of "Reynolds numbers" and show that chaotic deterministic flows can be very efficient, and numerically low-cost, models of turbulent trajectories in stationary, homogeneous, and isotropic conditions. The mathematics of the model is relatively simple, and, in a geophysical context, potential applications may regard small-scale parametrization issues in general circulation models, mixed layer, and/or boundary layer turbulence models as well as Lagrangian predictability studies.
Debris Dispersion Model Using Java 3D
Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar; Bardina, Jorge
2004-01-01
This paper describes web based simulation of Shuttle launch operations and debris dispersion. Java 3D graphics provides geometric and visual content with suitable mathematical model and behaviors of Shuttle launch. Because the model is so heterogeneous and interrelated with various factors, 3D graphics combined with physical models provides mechanisms to understand the complexity of launch and range operations. The main focus in the modeling and simulation covers orbital dynamics and range safety. Range safety areas include destruct limit lines, telemetry and tracking and population risk near range. If there is an explosion of Shuttle during launch, debris dispersion is explained. The shuttle launch and range operations in this paper are discussed based on the operations from Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA.
Lakra, Suchita; Mandal, Sanjoy
2017-06-01
A quadruple micro-optical ring resonator (QMORR) with multiple output bus waveguides is mathematically modeled and analyzed by making use of the delay-line signal processing approach in Z-domain and Mason's gain formula. The performances of QMORR with two output bus waveguides with vertical coupling are analyzed. This proposed structure is capable of providing wider free spectral response from both the output buses with appreciable cross talk. Thus, this configuration could provide increased capacity to insert a large number of communication channels. The simulated frequency response characteristic and its dispersion and group delay characteristics are graphically presented using the MATLAB environment.
Robust Output Model Predictive Control of an Unstable Rijke Tube
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabian Jarmolowitz
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This work investigates the active control of an unstable Rijke tube using robust output model predictive control (RMPC. As internal model a polytopic linear system with constraints is assumed to account for uncertainties. For guaranteed stability, a linear state feedback controller is designed using linear matrix inequalities and used within a feedback formulation of the model predictive controller. For state estimation a robust gain-scheduled observer is developed. It is shown that the proposed RMPC ensures robust stability under constraints over the considered operating range.
Air quality dispersion models from energy sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lazarevska, Ana
1996-01-01
Along with the continuing development of new air quality models that cover more complex problems, in the Clean Air Act, legislated by the US Congress, a consistency and standardization of air quality model applications were encouraged. As a result, the Guidelines on Air Quality Models were published, which are regularly reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA. These guidelines provide a basis for estimating the air quality concentrations used in accessing control strategies as well as defining emission limits. This paper presents a review and analysis of the recent versions of the models: Simple Terrain Stationary Source Model; Complex Terrain Dispersion Model; Ozone,Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Dioxide Models; Long Range Transport Model; Other phenomenon Models:Fugitive Dust/Fugitive Emissions, Particulate Matter, Lead, Air Pathway Analyses - Air Toxic as well as Hazardous Waste. 8 refs., 4 tabs., 2 ills
Modelling Analysis of Forestry Input-Output Elasticity in China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guofeng Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Based on an extended economic model and space econometrics, this essay analyzed the spatial distributions and interdependent relationships of the production of forestry in China; also the input-output elasticity of forestry production were calculated. Results figure out there exists significant spatial correlation in forestry production in China. Spatial distribution is mainly manifested as spatial agglomeration. The output elasticity of labor force is equal to 0.6649, and that of capital is equal to 0.8412. The contribution of land is significantly negative. Labor and capital are the main determinants for the province-level forestry production in China. Thus, research on the province-level forestry production should not ignore the spatial effect. The policy-making process should take into consideration the effects between provinces on the production of forestry. This study provides some scientific technical support for forestry production.
Evacuation emergency response model coupling atmospheric release advisory capability output
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosen, L.C.; Lawver, B.S.; Buckley, D.W.; Finn, S.P.; Swenson, J.B.
1983-01-01
A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sponsored project to develop a coupled set of models between those of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) system and candidate evacuation models is discussed herein. This report describes the ARAC system and discusses the rapid computer code developed and the coupling with ARAC output. The computer code is adapted to the use of color graphics as a means to display and convey the dynamics of an emergency evacuation. The model is applied to a specific case of an emergency evacuation of individuals surrounding the Rancho Seco Nuclear Power Plant, located approximately 25 miles southeast of Sacramento, California. The graphics available to the model user for the Rancho Seco example are displayed and noted in detail. Suggestions for future, potential improvements to the emergency evacuation model are presented
Modelling Pollutant Dispersion in a Street Network
Salem, N. Ben; Garbero, V.; Salizzoni, P.; Lamaison, G.; Soulhac, L.
2015-04-01
This study constitutes a further step in the analysis of the performances of a street network model to simulate atmospheric pollutant dispersion in urban areas. The model, named SIRANE, is based on the decomposition of the urban atmosphere into two sub-domains: the urban boundary layer, whose dynamics is assumed to be well established, and the urban canopy, represented as a series of interconnected boxes. Parametric laws govern the mass exchanges between the boxes under the assumption that the pollutant dispersion within the canopy can be fully simulated by modelling three main bulk transfer phenomena: channelling along street axes, transfers at street intersections, and vertical exchange between street canyons and the overlying atmosphere. Here, we aim to evaluate the reliability of the parametrizations adopted to simulate these phenomena, by focusing on their possible dependence on the external wind direction. To this end, we test the model against concentration measurements within an idealized urban district whose geometrical layout closely matches the street network represented in SIRANE. The analysis is performed for an urban array with a fixed geometry and a varying wind incidence angle. The results show that the model provides generally good results with the reference parametrizations adopted in SIRANE and that its performances are quite robust for a wide range of the model parameters. This proves the reliability of the street network approach in simulating pollutant dispersion in densely built city districts. The results also show that the model performances may be improved by considering a dependence of the wind fluctuations at street intersections and of the vertical exchange velocity on the direction of the incident wind. This opens the way for further investigations to clarify the dependence of these parameters on wind direction and street aspect ratios.
Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gowardhan, Akshay [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Donetti, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Belles, Rich [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Eme, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Homann, Steven [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)
2017-05-24
Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a more detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).
Modeling of Rayleigh wave dispersion in Iberia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Badal
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Phase and group velocities of 15–70 s Rayleigh waves propagating across the Iberian Peninsula have been transformed into local dispersion curves by linear inversion of travel times. The procedure permits that the waveform dispersion to be obtained as a continuous period-dependent velocity function at grid points belonging to the area probed by the waves, thus providing phase- and group-velocity contour maps for several periods within the interval of interest. The regionalization process rests on a homogeneous initial data set in which the number of observations remains almost constant for all periods of reference. Damped least-squares inversion of the local dispersion curves for shear-wave velocity structure is performed to obtain depth-dependent S-wave velocity profiles at the grid points covering the model region. The reliability of the results should improve significantly owing to the use of phase and group velocities simultaneously. On this basis, we have built horizontal depth sections that give an updated view of the seismic velocity structure of the peninsula at lithospheric and upper mantle depths (20–200 km. After averaging all the pure-path S-wave velocities previously determined at each grid point, the velocity-depth models so obtained for major tectonic units allow the comparison between the Hercynian basement and other areas of Mesozoic folding and Tertiary basins.
Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei
2015-01-01
The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods
Modeling pollutant dispersion within a tornadic thunderstorm
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pepper, D W
1982-01-01
A three-dimensional numerical model has been developed to calculate ground-level air concentration and deposition of particles entrained in a tornadic thunderstorm. The rotational characteristics of the tornadic storm are within the larger mesoscale flow of the storm system and transported with the vortex. Turbulence exchange coefficients are based on empirical values. The quasi-Lagrangian method of moments is used to model the transport of concentration within a grid cell volume. Results indicate that updrafts and downdrafts, coupled with scavenging of particles by precipitation, account for most of the material being deposited closer to the site than anticipated. Approximately 5% of the pollutant is dispersed into the stratosphere.
A PRODUCTIVITY EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON INPUT AND OUTPUT ORIENTATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C.O. Anyaeche
2012-01-01
Full Text Available
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Many productivity models evaluate either the input or the output performances using standalone techniques. This sometimes gives divergent views of the same system’s results. The work reported in this article, which simultaneously evaluated productivity from both orientations, was applied on real life data. The results showed losses in productivity (–2% and price recovery (–8% for the outputs; the inputs showed productivity gain (145% but price recovery loss (–63%. These imply losses in product performances but a productivity gain in inputs. The loss in the price recovery of inputs indicates a problem in the pricing policy. This model is applicable in product diversification.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die meeste produktiwiteitsmodelle evalueer of die inset- of die uitsetverrigting deur gebruik te maak van geïsoleerde tegnieke. Dit lei soms tot uiteenlopende perspektiewe van dieselfde sisteem se verrigting. Hierdie artikel evalueer verrigting uit beide perspektiewe en gebruik ware data. Die resultate toon ‘n afname in produktiwiteit (-2% en prysherwinning (-8% vir die uitsette. Die insette toon ‘n toename in produktiwiteit (145%, maar ‘n afname in prysherwinning (-63%. Dit impliseer ‘n afname in produkverrigting, maar ‘n produktiwiteitstoename in insette. Die afname in die prysherwinning van insette dui op ‘n problem in die prysvasstellingbeleid. Hierdie model is geskik vir produkdiversifikasie.
Air Quality Dispersion Modeling - Alternative Models
Models, not listed in Appendix W, that can be used in regulatory applications with case-by-case justification to the Reviewing Authority as noted in Section 3.2, Use of Alternative Models, in Appendix W.
Modelling airborne dispersion for disaster management
Musliman, I. A.; Yohnny, L.
2017-05-01
Industrial disasters, like any other disasters, can happen anytime, anywhere and in any form. Airborne industrial disaster is a kind of catastrophic event involving the release of particles such as chemicals and industrial wastes into environment in gaseous form, for instance gas leakages. Unlike solid and liquid materials, gases are often colourless and odourless, the particles are too tiny to be visible to the naked eyes; hence it is difficult to identify the presence of the gases and to tell the dispersion and location of the substance. This study is to develop an application prototype to perform simulation modelling on the gas particles to determine the dispersion of the gas particles and to identify the coverage of the affected area. The prototype adopted Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) model to calculate the position of the gas particles under the influence of wind and turbulent velocity components, which are the induced wind due to the rotation of the Earth, and Convex Hull algorithm to identify the convex points of the gas cloud to form the polygon of the coverage area. The application performs intersection and overlay analysis over a set of landuse data at Pasir Gudang, Johor industrial and residential area. Results from the analysis would be useful to tell the percentage and extent of the affected area, and are useful for the disaster management to evacuate people from the affected area. The developed application can significantly increase efficiency of emergency handling during a crisis. For example, by using a simulation model, the emergency handling can predict what is going to happen next, so people can be well informed and preparations works can be done earlier and better. Subsequently, this application helps a lot in the decision making process.
Modelling airborne dispersion for disaster management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Musliman, I A; Yohnny, L
2017-01-01
Industrial disasters, like any other disasters, can happen anytime, anywhere and in any form. Airborne industrial disaster is a kind of catastrophic event involving the release of particles such as chemicals and industrial wastes into environment in gaseous form, for instance gas leakages. Unlike solid and liquid materials, gases are often colourless and odourless, the particles are too tiny to be visible to the naked eyes; hence it is difficult to identify the presence of the gases and to tell the dispersion and location of the substance. This study is to develop an application prototype to perform simulation modelling on the gas particles to determine the dispersion of the gas particles and to identify the coverage of the affected area. The prototype adopted Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) model to calculate the position of the gas particles under the influence of wind and turbulent velocity components, which are the induced wind due to the rotation of the Earth, and Convex Hull algorithm to identify the convex points of the gas cloud to form the polygon of the coverage area. The application performs intersection and overlay analysis over a set of landuse data at Pasir Gudang, Johor industrial and residential area. Results from the analysis would be useful to tell the percentage and extent of the affected area, and are useful for the disaster management to evacuate people from the affected area. The developed application can significantly increase efficiency of emergency handling during a crisis. For example, by using a simulation model, the emergency handling can predict what is going to happen next, so people can be well informed and preparations works can be done earlier and better. Subsequently, this application helps a lot in the decision making process. (paper)
Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)
Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.
2013-12-01
Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.
Hrycik, Janelle M.; Chassé, Joël; Ruddick, Barry R.; Taggart, Christopher T.
2013-11-01
Early life-stage dispersal influences recruitment and is of significance in explaining the distribution and connectivity of marine species. Motivations for quantifying dispersal range from biodiversity conservation to the design of marine reserves and the mitigation of species invasions. Here we compare estimates of real particle dispersion in a coastal marine environment with similar estimates provided by hydrodynamic modelling. We do so by using a system of magnetically attractive particles (MAPs) and a magnetic-collector array that provides measures of Lagrangian dispersion based on the time-integration of MAPs dispersing through the array. MAPs released as a point source in a coastal marine location dispersed through the collector array over a 5-7 d period. A virtual release and observed (real-time) environmental conditions were used in a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the dispersal of virtual particles (VPs). The number of MAPs captured throughout the collector array and the number of VPs that passed through each corresponding model location were enumerated and compared. Although VP dispersal reflected several aspects of the observed MAP dispersal, the comparisons demonstrated model sensitivity to the small-scale (random-walk) particle diffusivity parameter (Kp). The one-dimensional dispersal kernel for the MAPs had an e-folding scale estimate in the range of 5.19-11.44 km, while those from the model simulations were comparable at 1.89-6.52 km, and also demonstrated sensitivity to Kp. Variations among comparisons are related to the value of Kp used in modelling and are postulated to be related to MAP losses from the water column and (or) shear dispersion acting on the MAPs; a process that is constrained in the model. Our demonstration indicates a promising new way of 1) quantitatively and empirically estimating the dispersal kernel in aquatic systems, and 2) quantitatively assessing and (or) improving regional hydrodynamic
An improved robust model predictive control for linear parameter-varying input-output models
Abbas, H.S.; Hanema, J.; Tóth, R.; Mohammadpour, J.; Meskin, N.
2018-01-01
This paper describes a new robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control the discrete-time linear parameter-varying input-output models subject to input and output constraints. Closed-loop asymptotic stability is guaranteed by including a quadratic terminal cost and an ellipsoidal terminal
mathematical modelling of atmospheric dispersion of pollutants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mohamed, M.E.
2002-01-01
the main objectives of this thesis are dealing with environmental problems adopting mathematical techniques. in this respect, atmospheric dispersion processes have been investigated by improving the analytical models to realize the realistic physical phenomena. to achieve these aims, the skeleton of this work contained both mathematical and environmental topics,performed in six chapters. in chapter one we presented a comprehensive review study of most important informations related to our work such as thermal stability , plume rise, inversion, advection , dispersion of pollutants, gaussian plume models dealing with both radioactive and industrial contaminants. chapter two deals with estimating the decay distance as well as the decay time of either industrial or radioactive airborne pollutant. further, highly turbulent atmosphere has been investigated as a special case in the three main thermal stability classes namely, neutral, stable, and unstable atmosphere. chapter three is concerned with obtaining maximum ground level concentration of air pollutant. the variable effective height of pollutants has been considered throughout the mathematical treatment. as a special case the constancy of effective height has been derived mathematically and the maximum ground level concentration as well as its location have been established
Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik
The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario....
Prioritizing Interdependent Production Processes using Leontief Input-Output Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masbad Jesah Grace
2016-03-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a methodology in identifying key production processes in an interdependent production system. Previous approaches on this domain have drawbacks that may potentially affect the reliability of decision-making. The proposed approach adopts the Leontief input-output model (L-IOM which was proven successful in analyzing interdependent economic systems. The motivation behind such adoption lies in the strength of L-IOM in providing a rigorous quantitative framework in identifying key components of interdependent systems. In this proposed approach, the consumption and production flows of each process are represented respectively by the material inventory produced by the prior process and the material inventory produced by the current process, both in monetary values. A case study in a furniture production system located in central Philippines was carried out to elucidate the proposed approach. Results of the case were reported in this work
An analytical model for an input/output-subsystem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roemgens, J.
1983-05-01
An input/output-subsystem of one or several computers if formed by the external memory units and the peripheral units of a computer system. For these subsystems mathematical models are established, taking into account the special properties of the I/O-subsystems, in order to avoid planning errors and to allow for predictions of the capacity of such systems. Here an analytical model is presented for the magnetic discs of a I/O-subsystem, using analytical methods for the individual waiting queues or waiting queue networks. Only I/O-subsystems of IBM-computer configurations are considered, which can be controlled by the MVS operating system. After a description of the hardware and software components of these I/O-systems, possible solutions from the literature are presented and discussed with respect to their applicability in IBM-I/O-subsystems. Based on these models a special scheme is developed which combines the advantages of the literature models and avoids the disadvantages in part. (orig./RW) [de
A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vahid Moosavi
Full Text Available The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.
A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.
Moosavi, Vahid; Isacchini, Giulio
2017-01-01
The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.
Modeling the dispersal of spiny lobster (
Whomersley, P.; van der Molen, J.; Holt, D.; Trundle, C.; Clark, S.; Fletcher, D.
2018-01-01
Knowledge of larval dispersal, population dynamics and connectivity in relation to the management and conservation of commercially important species is vital if existing fisheries are to remain sustainable into the future. Larval dispersal of the commercially exploited spiny lobster, Palinurus
Linearised model for PV panel power output variation with changes ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
PALLAVI BHARADWAJ
2017-10-26
Oct 26, 2017 ... change in system input, namely: irradiance and temperature, with its output, namely: array current and power. ... of a solar cell as shown in figure 1, with appropriate scaling according to ... measurement-based methods [8–13].
NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that various...
NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that...
Novel applications of the dispersive optical model
Dickhoff, W. H.; Charity, R. J.; Mahzoon, M. H.
2017-03-01
A review of recent developments of the dispersive optical model (DOM) is presented. Starting from the original work of Mahaux and Sartor, several necessary steps are developed and illustrated which increase the scope of the DOM allowing its interpretation as generating an experimentally constrained functional form of the nucleon self-energy. The method could therefore be renamed as the dispersive self-energy method. The aforementioned steps include the introduction of simultaneous fits of data for chains of isotopes or isotones allowing a data-driven extrapolation for the prediction of scattering cross sections and level properties in the direction of the respective drip lines. In addition, the energy domain for data was enlarged to include results up to 200 MeV where available. An important application of this work was implemented by employing these DOM potentials to the analysis of the (d, p) transfer reaction using the adiabatic distorted wave approximation. We review these calculations which suggest that physically meaningful results are easier to obtain by employing DOM ingredients as compared to the traditional approach which relies on a phenomenologically-adjusted bound-state wave function combined with a global (nondispersive) optical-model potential. Application to the exotic 132Sn nucleus also shows great promise for the extrapolation of DOM potentials towards the drip line with attendant relevance for the physics of FRIB. We note that the DOM method combines structure and reaction information on the same footing providing a unique approach to the analysis of exotic nuclei. We illustrate the importance of abandoning the custom of representing the non-local Hartree-Fock (HF) potential in the DOM by an energy-dependent local potential as it impedes the proper normalization of the solution of the Dyson equation. This important step allows for the interpretation of the DOM potential as representing the nucleon self-energy permitting the calculations of
Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Panitz, H.J.
1989-11-01
An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de
Comparison of Laboratory Experimental Data to XBeach Numerical Model Output
Demirci, Ebru; Baykal, Cuneyt; Guler, Isikhan; Sogut, Erdinc
2016-04-01
generating data sets for testing and validation of sediment transport relationships for sand transport in the presence of waves and currents. In these series, there is no structure in the basin. The second and third series of experiments were designed to generate data sets for development of tombolos in the lee of detached 4m-long rubble mound breakwater that is 4 m from the initial shoreline. The fourth series of experiments are conducted to investigate tombolo development in the lee of a 4m-long T-head groin with the head section in the same location of the second and the third tests. The fifth series of experiments are used to investigate tombolo development in the lee of a 3-m-long rubble-mound breakwater positioned 1.5 m offshore of the initial shoreline. In this study, the data collected from the above mentioned five experiments are used to compare the results of the experimental data with XBeach numerical model results, both for the "no-structure" and "with-structure" cases regarding to sediment transport relationships in the presence of only waves and currents as well as the shoreline changes together with the detached breakwater and the T-groin. The main purpose is to investigate the similarities and differences between the laboratory experimental data behavior with XBeach numerical model outputs for these five cases. References: Baykal, C., Sogut, E., Ergin, A., Guler, I., Ozyurt, G.T., Guler, G., and Dogan, G.G. (2015). Modelling Long Term Morphological Changes with XBeach: Case Study of Kızılırmak River Mouth, Turkey, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 12-17 April 2015. Gravens, M.B. and Wang, P. (2007). "Data report: Laboratory testing of longshore sand transport by waves and currents; morphology change behind headland structures." Technical Report, ERDC/CHL TR-07-8, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS. Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de
Mixing height derived from the DMI-HIRLAM NWP model, and used for ETEX dispersion modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soerensen, J.H.; Rasmussen, A. [Danish Meteorological Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark)
1997-10-01
For atmospheric dispersion modelling it is of great significance to estimate the mixing height well. Mesoscale and long-range diffusion models using output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models may well use NWP model profiles of wind, temperature and humidity in computation of the mixing height. This is dynamically consistent, and enables calculation of the mixing height for predicted states of the atmosphere. In autumn 1994, the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) was carried out with the objective to validate atmospheric dispersion models. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) participates in the model evaluations with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA) using NWP model data from the DMI version of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) as well as from the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). In DERMA, calculation of mixing heights are performed based on a bulk Richardson number approach. Comparing with tracer gas measurements for the first ETEX experiment, a sensitivity study is performed for DERMA. Using DMI-HIRLAM data, the study shows that optimum values of the critical bulk Richardson number in the range 0.15-0.35 are adequate. These results are in agreement with recent mixing height verification studies against radiosonde data. The fairly large range of adequate critical values is a signature of the robustness of the method. Direct verification results against observed missing heights from operational radio-sondes released under the ETEX plume are presented. (au) 10 refs.
Fused deposition modelling of sodium caseinate dispersions
Schutyser, M.A.I.; Houlder, S.; Wit, de Martin; Buijsse, C.A.P.; Alting, A.C.
2018-01-01
Only recently, researchers have started experimenting with 3D printing of foods. The aim of this study was to investigate 3D printed objects from sodium caseinate dispersions, exhibiting reversible gelation behaviour. Gelation and dispensing behaviour were explored and structures of different
Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation
2018-01-01
ARL-TR-8284 ● JAN 2018 US Army Research Laboratory Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model...Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...although some minor changes may be needed. The program processes a GTRAJ output text file that contains results from 2 or more simulations , where each
Specification and Aggregation Errors in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Models
Bouwmeester, Maaike C.; Oosterhaven, Jan
This article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input-output (IO) models, instead of with an environmentally extended international IO model. Model specification errors result
Computer modelling of contaminant migration in natural disperse media
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kundas, S.P.; Gishkelyuk, I.A.; Khil'ko, O.S.
2012-01-01
The theoretical foundations for modeling of the contaminants migration in natural disperses media taking into account interconnected heat and moisture transport are developed. The calculation of mass transfer parameters based on adsorption isotherms of water and thermodynamic equations in the developed mathematical models. The artificial neural networks use to predict migration of contaminants in natural disperse media is proposed. The developed software package is presented and results of practical application of models and software are discussed. (authors)
Modelling long-distance seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Levey, Douglas, J.; Tewlsbury, Joshua, J.; Bolker, Benjamin, M.
2008-01-01
1. Long-distance seed dispersal is difficult to measure, yet key to understanding plant population dynamics and community composition. 2. We used a spatially explicit model to predict the distribution of seeds dispersed long distances by birds into habitat patches of different shapes. All patches were the same type of habitat and size, but varied in shape. They occurred in eight experimental landscapes, each with five patches of four different shapes, 150 m apart in a matrix of mature forest. The model was parameterized with smallscale movement data collected from field observations of birds. In a previous study we validated the model by testing its predictions against observed patterns of seed dispersal in real landscapes with the same types and spatial configuration of patches as in the model. 3. Here we apply the model more broadly, examining how patch shape influences the probability of seed deposition by birds into patches, how dispersal kernels (distributions of dispersal distances) vary with patch shape and starting location, and how movement of seeds between patches is affected by patch shape. 4. The model predicts that patches with corridors or other narrow extensions receive higher numbers of seeds than patches without corridors or extensions. This pattern is explained by edgefollowing behaviour of birds. Dispersal distances are generally shorter in heterogeneous landscapes (containing patchy habitat) than in homogeneous landscapes, suggesting that patches divert the movement of seed dispersers, ‘holding’ them long enough to increase the probability of seed defecation in the patches. Dispersal kernels for seeds in homogeneous landscapes were smooth, whereas those in heterogenous landscapes were irregular. In both cases, long-distance (> 150 m) dispersal was surprisingly common, usually comprising approximately 50% of all dispersal events. 5. Synthesis . Landscape heterogeneity has a large influence on patterns of long-distance seed dispersal. Our
Modelling surface radioactive spill dispersion in the Alboran Sea
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perianez, R.
2006-01-01
The Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea are the only connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Intense shipping activities occur in the area, including transport of waste radionuclides and transit of nuclear submarines. Thus, it is relevant to have a dispersion model that can be used in an emergency situation after an accident, to help the decision-making process. Such dispersion model requires an appropriate description of the physical oceanography of the region of interest, with simulations of tides and residual (average) circulation. In this work, a particle-tracking dispersion model that can be used to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides in the system Strait of Gibraltar-Alboran Sea is described. Tides are simulated using a barotropic model and for the average circulation a reduced-gravity model is applied. This model is able to reproduce the main features of the Alboran circulation (the well known Western Alboran Gyre, WAG, and the coastal circulation mode). The dispersion model is run off-line, using previously computed tidal and residual currents. The contamination patch is simulated by a number of particles whose individual paths are computed; diffusion and decay being modelled using a Monte Carlo method. Radionuclide concentrations may be obtained from the density of particles per water volume unit. Results from the hydrodynamic models have been compared with observations in the area. Several examples of dispersion computations under different wind and circulation conditions are presented
Möller, M.; Obleitner, F.; Reijmer, C.H.; Pohjola, V.A.; Glowacki, P.; Kohler, J.
2016-01-01
Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available
Presentation of Austrians recommended dispersion model for tunnel portals
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oettl, D.; Sturm, P.; Almbauer, R. [Inst. for Internal Combustion Engines and Thermodynamics, Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria)
2004-07-01
Street tunnels in cities are often suggested as solution to avoid daily congestions but also to prevent residential areas from high noise and air pollution emissions. In case of longitudinal ventilated tunnels high pollution levels may occur in the vicinity of the portals. The dispersion of pollutants from tunnel portals is considered to differ significantly from those of other sources, such as line or point sources. To the best of the authors knowledge, there exist currently two distinct dispersion models, which are especially designed to treat dispersion from tunnel portals. Okamoto et al proposed a diagnostic wind field model, where the dispersion is modelled using a Taylor-Galerkin-Forester filter method. Oettl et al. developed a Lagrangian-type model (GRAL TM 3.5=Graz Lagrangian model Tunnel Module version 3.5), which is briefly described in the next section. (orig.)
Objectives for next generation of practical short-range atmospheric dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olesen, H.R.; Mikkelsen, T.
1992-01-01
The proceedings contains papers from the workshop ''Objectives for Next Generation of Practical Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Models''. They deal with two types of models, namely models for regulatory purposes and models for real-time applications. The workshop was the result of an action started in 1991 for increased cooperation and harmonization within atmospheric dispersion modelling. The focus of the workshop was on the management of model development and the definition of model objectives, rather than on detailed model contents. It was the intention to identify actions that can be taken in order to improve the development and use of atmospheric dispersion models. The papers in the proceedings deal with various topics within the broad spectrum of matters related to up-to-date practical models, such as their scientific basis, requirements for model input and output, meteorological preprocessing, standardisation within modelling, electronic information exchange as a potentially useful tool, model evaluation and data bases for model evaluation. In addition to the papers, the proceedings contain summaries of the discussions at the workshop. These summaries point to a number of recommended actions which can be taken in order to improve ''modelling culture''. (AB)
Offshore and coastal dispersion (OCD) model. Users guide
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hanna, S.R.; Schulman, L.L.; Paine, R.J.; Pleim, J.E.
1984-09-01
The Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) model was adapted from the EPA guideline model MPTER to simulate the effect of offshore emissions from point sources in coastal regions. Modifications were made to incorporate overwater plume transport and dispersion as well as changes that occur as the plume crosses the shoreline. Hourly meteorological data are needed from overwater and overland locations. Turbulence intensities are used but are not mandatory. For overwater dispersion, the turbulence intensities are parameterized from boundary-layer similarity relationships if they are not measured. Specifications of emission characteristics and receptor locations are the same as for MPTER; 250 point sources and 180 receptors may be used
A 'Puff' dispersion model for routine and accidental releases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grsic, Z.; Rajkovic, B.; Milutinovic, P.
1999-01-01
A Puff dispersion model for accidental or routine releases is presented. This model was used as a constitutive part of an automatic meteorological station.All measured quantities are continuously displayed on PC monitor in a digital and graphical form, they are averaging every 10 minutes and sending to the civil information center of Belgrade. In the paper simulation of a pollutant plume dispersion from The oil refinery 'Pancevo', on April 18 th 1999 is presented. (author)
Aquatic dispersion modelling of a tritium plume in Lake Ontario
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klukas, M.H.; Moltyaner, G.L.
1996-05-01
Approximately 2900 kg of tritiated water, containing 2.3E+15 Bq of tritium, were released to Lake Ontario via the cooling water discharge when a leak developed in a moderator heat exchanger in Unit 1 at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS) on 1992 August 2. The release provided the opportunity to study the dispersion of a tritium plume in the coastal zone of Lake Ontario. Current direction over the two-week period following the release was predominantly parallel to the shore, and elevated tritium concentrations were observed up to 20 km east and 85 km west of the PNGS. Predictions of the tritium plume movement were made using current velocity measurements taken at 8-m depth, 2.5 km offshore from Darlington and using a empirical relationship where alongshore current speed is assumed to be proportional to the alongshore component of the wind speed. The tritium migration was best described using current velocity measurements. The tritium plume dispersion is modelled using the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Transport parameters are the alongshore current speed and longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients, estimated by fitting the solution of the advection-dispersion equation to measured concentration distance profiles ranged from 3.75 to 10.57 m 2 s -1 . Simulations using the fitted values of the dispersion coefficient were able to describe maximum tritium concentrations measured at water supply plants located within 25 km of Pickering to within a factor of 3. The dispersion coefficient is a function of spatial and temporal variability in current velocity and the fitted dispersion coefficients estimated here may not be suitable for predicting tritium plume dispersion under different current conditions. The sensitivity of the dispersion coefficient to variability in current conditions should be evaluated in further field experiments. (author). 13 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs
Dispersive processes in models of regional radionuclide migration. Technical memorandum
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.
1980-05-01
Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties
Evaluation of hydrodynamic ocean models as a first step in larval dispersal modelling
Vasile, Roxana; Hartmann, Klaas; Hobday, Alistair J.; Oliver, Eric; Tracey, Sean
2018-01-01
Larval dispersal modelling, a powerful tool in studying population connectivity and species distribution, requires accurate estimates of the ocean state, on a high-resolution grid in both space (e.g. 0.5-1 km horizontal grid) and time (e.g. hourly outputs), particularly of current velocities and water temperature. These estimates are usually provided by hydrodynamic models based on which larval trajectories and survival are computed. In this study we assessed the accuracy of two hydrodynamic models around Australia - Bluelink ReANalysis (BRAN) and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) - through comparison with empirical data from the Australian National Moorings Network (ANMN). We evaluated the models' predictions of seawater parameters most relevant to larval dispersal - temperature, u and v velocities and current speed and direction - on the continental shelf where spawning and nursery areas for major fishery species are located. The performance of each model in estimating ocean parameters was found to depend on the parameter investigated and to vary from one geographical region to another. Both BRAN and HYCOM models systematically overestimated the mean water temperature, particularly in the top 140 m of water column, with over 2 °C bias at some of the mooring stations. HYCOM model was more accurate than BRAN for water temperature predictions in the Great Australian Bight and along the east coast of Australia. Skill scores between each model and the in situ observations showed lower accuracy in the models' predictions of u and v ocean current velocities compared to water temperature predictions. For both models, the lowest accuracy in predicting ocean current velocities, speed and direction was observed at 200 m depth. Low accuracy of both model predictions was also observed in the top 10 m of the water column. BRAN had more accurate predictions of both u and v velocities in the upper 50 m of water column at all mooring station locations. While HYCOM
Comparative calculations and validation studies with atmospheric dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paesler-Sauer, J.
1986-11-01
This report presents the results of an intercomparison of different mesoscale dispersion models and measured data of tracer experiments. The types of models taking part in the intercomparison are Gaussian-type, numerical Eulerian, and Lagrangian dispersion models. They are suited for the calculation of the atmospherical transport of radionuclides released from a nuclear installation. For the model intercomparison artificial meteorological situations were defined and corresponding arithmetical problems were formulated. For the purpose of model validation real dispersion situations of tracer experiments were used as input data for model calculations; in these cases calculated and measured time-integrated concentrations close to the ground are compared. Finally a valuation of the models concerning their efficiency in solving the problems is carried out by the aid of objective methods. (orig./HP) [de
Measuring power output intermittency and unsteady loading in a micro wind farm model
Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan
2016-01-01
In this study porous disc models are used as a turbine model for a wind-tunnel wind farm experiment, allowing the measurement of the power output, thrust force and spatially averaged incoming velocity for every turbine. The model's capabilities for studying the unsteady turbine loading, wind farm power output intermittency and spatio temporal correlations between wind turbines are demonstrated on an aligned wind farm, consisting of 100 wind turbine models.
A linearized dispersion relation for orthorhombic pseudo-acoustic modeling
Song, Xiaolei; Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali
2012-01-01
Wavefield extrapolation in acoustic orthorhombic anisotropic media suffers from wave-mode coupling and stability limitations in the parameter range. We introduce a linearized form of the dispersion relation for acoustic orthorhombic media to model acoustic wavefields. We apply the lowrank approximation approach to handle the corresponding space-wavenumber mixed-domain operator. Numerical experiments show that the proposed wavefield extrapolator is accurate and practically free of dispersions. Further, there is no coupling of qSv and qP waves, because we use the analytical dispersion relation. No constraints on Thomsen's parameters are required for stability. The linearized expression may provide useful application for parameter estimation in orthorhombic media.
Output-Feedback Model Predictive Control of a Pasteurization Pilot Plant based on an LPV model
Karimi Pour, Fatemeh; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Puig, Vicenç
2017-01-01
This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a pasteurization pilot plant based on an LPV model. Since not all the states are measured, an observer is also designed, which allows implementing an output-feedback MPC scheme. However, the model of the plant is not completely observable when augmented with the disturbance models. In order to solve this problem, the following strategies are used: (i) the whole system is decoupled into two subsystems, (ii) an inner state-feedback controller is implemented into the MPC control scheme. A real-time example based on the pasteurization pilot plant is simulated as a case study for testing the behavior of the approaches.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar, E-mail: sahubar@uum.edu.my; Ramli, Razamin, E-mail: razamin@uum.edu.my; Baten, M. D. Azizul, E-mail: baten-math@yahoo.com [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUM College of Arts and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia)
2015-12-11
Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul
2015-01-01
Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency
Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul
2015-12-01
Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers' efficiency.
Computer models and output, Spartan REM: Appendix B
Marlowe, D. S.; West, E. J.
1984-01-01
A computer model of the Spartan Release Engagement Mechanism (REM) is presented in a series of numerical charts and engineering drawings. A crack growth analysis code is used to predict the fracture mechanics of critical components.
COMBINING LONG MEMORY AND NONLINEAR MODEL OUTPUTS FOR INFLATION FORECAST
Heri Kuswanto; Irhamah Alimuhajin; Laylia Afidah
2014-01-01
Long memory and nonlinearity have been proven as two models that are easily to be mistaken. In other words, nonlinearity is a strong candidate of spurious long memory by introducing a certain degree of fractional integration that lies in the region of long memory. Indeed, nonlinear process belongs to short memory with zero integration order. The idea of the forecast is to obtain the future condition with minimum error. Some researches argued that no matter what the model is, the important thi...
Modeling the dispersion effects of contractile fibers in smooth muscles
Murtada, Sae-Il; Kroon, Martin; Holzapfel, Gerhard A.
2010-12-01
Micro-structurally based models for smooth muscle contraction are crucial for a better understanding of pathological conditions such as atherosclerosis, incontinence and asthma. It is meaningful that models consider the underlying mechanical structure and the biochemical activation. Hence, a simple mechanochemical model is proposed that includes the dispersion of the orientation of smooth muscle myofilaments and that is capable to capture available experimental data on smooth muscle contraction. This allows a refined study of the effects of myofilament dispersion on the smooth muscle contraction. A classical biochemical model is used to describe the cross-bridge interactions with the thin filament in smooth muscles in which calcium-dependent myosin phosphorylation is the only regulatory mechanism. A novel mechanical model considers the dispersion of the contractile fiber orientations in smooth muscle cells by means of a strain-energy function in terms of one dispersion parameter. All model parameters have a biophysical meaning and may be estimated through comparisons with experimental data. The contraction of the middle layer of a carotid artery is studied numerically. Using a tube the relationships between the internal pressure and the stretches are investigated as functions of the dispersion parameter, which implies a strong influence of the orientation of smooth muscle myofilaments on the contraction response. It is straightforward to implement this model in a finite element code to better analyze more complex boundary-value problems.
A dispersion modelling system for urban air pollution
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Karppinen, A.; Kukkonen, J.; Nordlund, G.; Rantakrans, E.; Valkama, I.
1998-10-01
An Urban Dispersion Modelling system UDM-FMI, developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute is described in the report. The modelling system includes a multiple source Gaussian plume model and a meteorological pre-processing model. The dispersion model is an integrated urban scale model, taking into account of all source categories (point, line, area and volume sources). It includes a treatment of chemical transformation (for NO{sub 2}) wet and dry deposition (for SO{sub 2}) plume rise, downwash phenomena and dispersion of inert particles. The model allows also for the influence of a finite mixing height. The model structure is mainly based on the state-of-the-art methodology. The system also computes statistical parameters from the time series, which can be compared to air quality guidelines. The relevant meteorological parameters for the dispersion model are evaluated using data produced by a meteorological pre-processor. The model is based mainly on the energy budget method. Results of national investigations have been used for evaluating climate-dependent parameters. The model utilises the synoptic meteorological observations, radiation records and aerological sounding observations. The model results include the hourly time series of the relevant atmospheric turbulence 51 refs.
Unstructured Spectral Element Model for Dispersive and Nonlinear Wave Propagation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter; Eskilsson, Claes; Bigoni, Daniele
2016-01-01
We introduce a new stabilized high-order and unstructured numerical model for modeling fully nonlinear and dispersive water waves. The model is based on a nodal spectral element method of arbitrary order in space and a -transformed formulation due to Cai, Langtangen, Nielsen and Tveito (1998). In...
The Comparison of Point Data Models for the Output of WRF Hydro Model in the IDV
Ho, Y.; Weber, J.
2017-12-01
WRF Hydro netCDF output files contain streamflow, flow depth, longitude, latitude, altitude and stream order values for each forecast point. However, the data are not CF compliant. The total number of forecast points for the US CONUS is approximately 2.7 million and it is a big challenge for any visualization and analysis tool. The IDV point cloud display shows point data as a set of points colored by parameter. This display is very efficient compared to a standard point type display for rendering a large number of points. The one problem we have is that the data I/O can be a bottleneck issue when dealing with a large collection of point input files. In this presentation, we will experiment with different point data models and their APIs to access the same WRF Hydro model output. The results will help us construct a CF compliant netCDF point data format for the community.
Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.
1979-01-01
Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations
Models of asthma: density-equalizing mapping and output benchmarking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fischer Tanja C
2008-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Despite the large amount of experimental studies already conducted on bronchial asthma, further insights into the molecular basics of the disease are required to establish new therapeutic approaches. As a basis for this research different animal models of asthma have been developed in the past years. However, precise bibliometric data on the use of different models do not exist so far. Therefore the present study was conducted to establish a data base of the existing experimental approaches. Density-equalizing algorithms were used and data was retrieved from a Thomson Institute for Scientific Information database. During the period from 1900 to 2006 a number of 3489 filed items were connected to animal models of asthma, the first being published in the year 1968. The studies were published by 52 countries with the US, Japan and the UK being the most productive suppliers, participating in 55.8% of all published items. Analyzing the average citation per item as an indicator for research quality Switzerland ranked first (30.54/item and New Zealand ranked second for countries with more than 10 published studies. The 10 most productive journals included 4 with a main focus allergy and immunology and 4 with a main focus on the respiratory system. Two journals focussed on pharmacology or pharmacy. In all assigned subject categories examined for a relation to animal models of asthma, immunology ranked first. Assessing numbers of published items in relation to animal species it was found that mice were the preferred species followed by guinea pigs. In summary it can be concluded from density-equalizing calculations that the use of animal models of asthma is restricted to a relatively small number of countries. There are also differences in the use of species. These differences are based on variations in the research focus as assessed by subject category analysis.
Including model uncertainty in the model predictive control with output feedback
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rodrigues M.A.
2002-01-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the development of an efficient numerical output feedback robust model predictive controller for open-loop stable systems. Stability of the closed loop is guaranteed by using an infinite horizon predictive controller and a stable state observer. The performance and the computational burden of this approach are compared to a robust predictive controller from the literature. The case used for this study is based on an industrial gasoline debutanizer column.
A numerical model of heavy gas dispersion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bidokhtti, A.A.
1993-01-01
A simple mathematical model describing the motion of a dense gas released continuously into and environment is presented. The model correctly predicts the laboratory experiments which were carried out by Britter and Snyder (1987). It is an entrainment model better known as box model. In this model, the effects of temperature change and phase change are not considered and it is for a steady-state case. Further work is required for including these effects which are often associated with the mechanisms involved in accidental or natural release of heavy gases in the environment. The results of such a model will be extended to the practical situations which are and will be common to the nuclear industry at the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The applicability of such studies to these situations will be discussed
Evaluation of atmospheric dispersion/consequence models supporting safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
O'Kula, K.R.; Lazaro, M.A.; Woodard, K.
1996-01-01
Two DOE Working Groups have completed evaluation of accident phenomenology and consequence methodologies used to support DOE facility safety documentation. The independent evaluations each concluded that no one computer model adequately addresses all accident and atmospheric release conditions. MACCS2, MATHEW/ADPIC, TRAC RA/HA, and COSYMA are adequate for most radiological dispersion and consequence needs. ALOHA, DEGADIS, HGSYSTEM, TSCREEN, and SLAB are recommended for chemical dispersion and consequence applications. Additional work is suggested, principally in evaluation of new models, targeting certain models for continued development, training, and establishing a Web page for guidance to safety analysts
Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements.
Straume, Anne Grete; N'dri Koffi, Ernest; Nodop, Katrin
1998-11-01
Numerous numerical models are developed to predict long-range transport of hazardous air pollution in connection with accidental releases. When evaluating and improving such a model, it is important to detect uncertainties connected to the meteorological input data. A Lagrangian dispersion model, the Severe Nuclear Accident Program, is used here to investigate the effect of errors in the meteorological input data due to analysis error. An ensemble forecast, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is then used as model input. The ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the initial meteorological fields of the weather forecast. The perturbations are calculated from singular vectors meant to represent possible forecast developments generated by instabilities in the atmospheric flow during the early part of the forecast. The instabilities are generated by errors in the analyzed fields. Puff predictions from the dispersion model, using ensemble forecast input, are compared, and a large spread in the predicted puff evolutions is found. This shows that the quality of the meteorological input data is important for the success of the dispersion model. In order to evaluate the dispersion model, the calculations are compared with measurements from the European Tracer Experiment. The model manages to predict the measured puff evolution concerning shape and time of arrival to a fairly high extent, up to 60 h after the start of the release. The modeled puff is still too narrow in the advection direction.
Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® wave model monthly hindcasts
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Balagyra, V.S.; Ryabka, P.M.
1999-01-01
For measuring the charged particle energy calculations of mean square angles of electron beam multiple Coulomb scattering at output combined accelerator target were undertaken according to seven theoretical models. Mollier method showed the best agreement with experiments
Investigation on the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
BAO Nengsheng; MA Xiuqian; NI Weidou
2007-01-01
The integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm is needed when estimating the wind farm's output over a period of time in the future.The actual wind speed power model and calculation method of a wind farm made up of many wind turbine units are discussed.After analyzing the incoming wind flow characteristics and their energy distributions,and after considering the multi-effects among the wind turbine units and certain assumptions,the incoming wind flow model of multi-units is built.The calculation algorithms and steps of the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm are provided.Finally,an actual power output of the wind farm is calculated and analyzed by using the practical measurement wind speed data.The characteristics of a large-scale wind farm are also discussed.
Real-time dispersion calculation using the Lagrange model LASAT
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Janicke, L.
1987-01-01
The LASAT (Lagrange Simulation of Aerosol Transport) dispersion model demonstrates pollutant transport in the atmosphere by simulating the paths of representative random samples of pollutant particles on the computer as natural as possible. The author demonstrates the generated particle paths and refers to literature for details of the model algorithm. (DG) [de
Modeling atmospheric dispersion for reactor accident consequence evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alpert, D.J.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Woodard, K.
1982-01-01
Atmospheric dispersion models are a central part of computer codes for the evaluation of potential reactor accident consequences. A variety of ways of treating to varying degrees the many physical processes that can have an impact on the predicted consequences exists. The currently available models are reviewed and their capabilities and limitations, as applied to reactor accident consequence analyses, are discussed
Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback
Jung–Min Yang
2016-01-01
Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the ...
Carotenuto, Federico; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Miglietta, Franco; Riccio, Angelo; Toscano, Piero; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Gioli, Beniamino
2018-02-22
CO 2 remains the greenhouse gas that contributes most to anthropogenic global warming, and the evaluation of its emissions is of major interest to both research and regulatory purposes. Emission inventories generally provide quite reliable estimates of CO 2 emissions. However, because of intrinsic uncertainties associated with these estimates, it is of great importance to validate emission inventories against independent estimates. This paper describes an integrated approach combining aircraft measurements and a puff dispersion modelling framework by considering a CO 2 industrial point source, located in Biganos, France. CO 2 density measurements were obtained by applying the mass balance method, while CO 2 emission estimates were derived by implementing the CALMET/CALPUFF model chain. For the latter, three meteorological initializations were used: (i) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by ECMWF reanalyses; (ii) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by CFSR reanalyses and (iii) local in situ observations. Governmental inventorial data were used as reference for all applications. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and how they affect emission estimation uncertainty were investigated. The mass balance based on aircraft measurements was quite succesful in capturing the point source emission strength (at worst with a 16% bias), while the accuracy of the dispersion modelling, markedly when using ECMWF initialization through the WRF model, was only slightly lower (estimation with an 18% bias). The analysis will help in highlighting some methodological best practices that can be used as guidelines for future experiments.
Mathematical modeling of disperse two-phase flows
Morel, Christophe
2015-01-01
This book develops the theoretical foundations of disperse two-phase flows, which are characterized by the existence of bubbles, droplets or solid particles finely dispersed in a carrier fluid, which can be a liquid or a gas. Chapters clarify many difficult subjects, including modeling of the interfacial area concentration. Basic knowledge of the subjects treated in this book is essential to practitioners of Computational Fluid Dynamics for two-phase flows in a variety of industrial and environmental settings. The author provides a complete derivation of the basic equations, followed by more advanced subjects like turbulence equations for the two phases (continuous and disperse) and multi-size particulate flow modeling. As well as theoretical material, readers will discover chapters concerned with closure relations and numerical issues. Many physical models are presented, covering key subjects including heat and mass transfers between phases, interfacial forces and fluid particles coalescence and breakup, a...
Model-based dispersive wave processing: A recursive Bayesian solution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.
1999-01-01
Wave propagation through dispersive media represents a significant problem in many acoustic applications, especially in ocean acoustics, seismology, and nondestructive evaluation. In this paper we propose a propagation model that can easily represent many classes of dispersive waves and proceed to develop the model-based solution to the wave processing problem. It is shown that the underlying wave system is nonlinear and time-variable requiring a recursive processor. Thus the general solution to the model-based dispersive wave enhancement problem is developed using a Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) approach and shown to lead to the recursive, nonlinear extended Kalman filter (EKF) processor. The problem of internal wave estimation is cast within this framework. The specific processor is developed and applied to data synthesized by a sophisticated simulator demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. copyright 1999 Acoustical Society of America.
Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion
2010-01-01
Through a NASA Seed Fund partnership with DEM Solutions Inc., of Lebanon, New Hampshire, scientists at Kennedy Space Center refined existing software to study the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces. The software, EDEM, allows users to import particles and obtain accurate representations of their shapes for modeling purposes, such as simulating bulk solids behavior, and was enhanced to be able to more accurately model fine, abrasive, cohesive particles. These new EDEM capabilities can be applied in many industries unrelated to space exploration and have been adopted by several prominent U.S. companies, including John Deere, Pfizer, and Procter & Gamble.
Pandemic recovery analysis using the dynamic inoperability input-output model.
Santos, Joost R; Orsi, Mark J; Bond, Erik J
2009-12-01
Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model((1,2)) and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).((3)) These models introduced sector inoperability, or the inability to satisfy as-planned production levels, into input-output modeling. While these models provide insights for understanding the impacts of inoperability, there are several aspects of the current formulation that do not account for complexities associated with certain disasters, such as a pandemic. This article proposes further enhancements to the DIIM to account for economic productivity losses resulting primarily from workforce disruptions. A pandemic is a unique disaster because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related. The article develops a modeling framework to account for workforce inoperability and recovery factors. The proposed workforce-explicit enhancements to the DIIM are demonstrated in a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
ERUPTION TO DOSE: COUPLING A TEPHRA DISPERSAL MODEL WITHIN A PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
G. N. Keating, J. Pelletier
2005-01-01
The tephra dispersal model used by the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) to evaluate the potential consequences of a volcanic eruption through the waste repository must incorporate simplifications in order to function within a large Monte-Carlo style performance assessment framework. That is, the explicit physics of the conduit, vent, and eruption column processes are abstracted to a 2-D, steady-state advection-dispersion model (ASHPLUME) that can be run quickly over thousands of realizations of the overall system model. Given the continuous development of tephra dispersal modeling techniques in the last few years, we evaluated the adequacy of this simplified model for its intended purpose within the YMP total system performance assessment (TSPA) model. We evaluated uncertainties inherent in model simplifications including (1) instantaneous, steady-state vs. unsteady eruption, which affects column height, (2) constant wind conditions, and (3) power-law distribution of the tephra blanket; comparisons were made to other models and published ash distributions. Spatial statistics are useful for evaluating differences in these model output vs. results using more complex wind, column height, and tephra deposition patterns. However, in order to assess the adequacy of the model for its intended use in TSPA, we evaluated the propagation of these uncertainties through FAR, the YMP ash redistribution model, which utilizes ASHPLUME tephra deposition results to calculate the concentration of nuclear waste-contaminated tephra at a dose-receptor population as a result of sedimentary transport and mixing processes on the landscape. Questions we sought to answer include: (1) what conditions of unsteadiness, wind variability, or departure from simplified tephra distribution result in significant effects on waste concentration (related to dose calculated for the receptor population)? (2) What criteria can be established for the adequacy of a tephra dispersal model within the TSPA
A model for dispersion of contaminants in the subway environment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Coke, L. R.; Sanchez, J. G.; Policastro, A. J.
2000-05-03
Although subway ventilation has been studied extensively, very little has been published on dispersion of contaminants in the subway environment. This paper presents a model that predicts dispersion of contaminants in a complex subway system. It accounts for the combined transient effects of train motion, station airflows, train car air exchange rates, and source release properties. Results are presented for a range of typical subway scenarios. The effects of train piston action and train car air exchange are discussed. The model could also be applied to analyze the environmental impact of hazardous materials releases such as chemical and biological agents.
Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gifford, F.A.
1976-01-01
Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation
A hybrid plume model for local-scale dispersion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nikmo, J.; Tuovinen, J.P.; Kukkonen, J.; Valkama, I.
1997-12-31
The report describes the contribution of the Finnish Meteorological Institute to the project `Dispersion from Strongly Buoyant Sources`, under the `Environment` programme of the European Union. The project addresses the atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles emitted from typical fires in warehouses and chemical stores. In the study only the `passive plume` regime, in which the influence of plume buoyancy is no longer important, is addressed. The mathematical model developed and its numerical testing is discussed. The model is based on atmospheric boundary-layer scaling theory. In the vicinity of the source, Gaussian equations are used in both the horizontal and vertical directions. After a specified transition distance, gradient transfer theory is applied in the vertical direction, while the horizontal dispersion is still assumed to be Gaussian. The dispersion parameters and eddy diffusivity are modelled in a form which facilitates the use of a meteorological pre-processor. Also a new model for the vertical eddy diffusivity (K{sub z}), which is a continuous function of height in the various atmospheric scaling regions is presented. The model includes a treatment of the dry deposition of gases and particulate matter, but wet deposition has been neglected. A numerical solver for the atmospheric diffusion equation (ADE) has been developed. The accuracy of the numerical model was analysed by comparing the model predictions with two analytical solutions of ADE. The numerical deviations of the model predictions from these analytic solutions were less than two per cent for the computational regime. The report gives numerical results for the vertical profiles of the eddy diffusivity and the dispersion parameters, and shows spatial concentration distributions in various atmospheric conditions 39 refs.
Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-01-27
Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.
Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)] [and others
2013-08-15
The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)
Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.
2013-08-01
The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)
Review of potential models for UF6 dispersion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sykes, R.I.; Lewellen, W.S.
1992-07-01
A survey of existing atmospheric dispersion models has been conducted to determine the most appropriate basis for the development of a model for predicting the consequences of an accidental UF 6 release. The model is required for safety analysis studies and should therefore be computationally efficient. The release of UF 6 involves a number of physical phenomena which make the situation more complicated than passive dispersion of a trace gas. The safety analysis must consider the density variations in the UF 6 cloud, which can be heavier or lighter than the ambient air. The release also involves rapid chemical reactions and associated heat release, which must be modeled. Other Department of Energy storage facilities require a dense gas prediction capability, so the model must be sufficiently general for use with a variety of release scenarios. The special problems associated with UF 6 make it unique, so there are very few models with existing capability for the problem. There are, however, a large number of dense gas dispersion models, some with relevant chemical reaction modeling, that could potentially form the basis of an advanced UF 6 model. We have examined a large selection of possible candidates, and selected 5 models for detailed consideration
Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.
2018-05-01
Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed
Sensitivity study of the Continuous Release Dispersion Model (CRDM) for radioactive pollutants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Camacho, F.
1987-08-01
The Continuous Release Dispersion Model (CRDM) is used to calculate spatial distribution of pollutants and their radiation doses in the event of accidental releases of radioactive material from Nuclear Generation Stations. A sensitivity analysis of the CRDM was carried out to develop a method for quantifying the expected output uncertainty due to inaccuracies and uncertainties in the input values. A simulation approach was used to explore the behaviour of the sensitivity functions. It was found that the most sensitive variable is wind speed, the least sensitive is the ambient temperature, and that largest values of normalized concentrations are likely to occur for small values of wind speed and highly stable atmospheric conditions. It was also shown that an error between 10% and 25% should be expected in the output values for a 1% overall error in the input values, and this factor could be much larger in certain situations
Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik
The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely’ di...
Mechanistic model for dispersion coefficients in bubble column
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Skosana, PJ
2015-05-01
Full Text Available predicts axial and radial dispersion coefficients that are of the same order of magnitude as the reported data. Whereas the model is based on a description of the underlying physical phenomena, its validity and extrapolation is expected to be more reliable...
Pollutant dispersion models for issues of air pollution control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1985-01-01
14 papers entered separately into the data base were presented at the meeting for application-oriented dispersion models for issues of air pollution control. These papers focus on fields of application, availability of required input data relevant to emissions and meteorology, performance and accuracy of these methods and their practicability. (orig./PW) [de
Variational Boussinesq model for strongly nonlinear dispersive waves
Lawrence, C.; Adytia, D.; van Groesen, E.
2018-01-01
For wave tank, coastal and oceanic applications, a fully nonlinear Variational Boussinesq model with optimized dispersion is derived and a simple Finite Element implementation is described. Improving a previous weakly nonlinear version, high waves over flat and varying bottom are shown to be
Equilibrium Price Dispersion in a Matching Model with Divisible Money
Kamiya, K.; Sato, T.
2002-01-01
The main purpose of this paper is to show that, for any given parameter values, an equilibrium with dispersed prices (two-price equilibrium) exists in a simple matching model with divisible money presented by Green and Zhou (1998).We also show that our two-price equilibrium is unique in certain
PHYSICAL AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF ASD EXHAUST DISPERSION AROUND HOUSES
The report discusses the use of a wind tunnel to physically model the dispersion of exhaust plumes from active soil depressurization (ASD) radon mitigation systems in houses. he testing studied the effects of exhaust location (grade level vs. above the eave), as house height, roo...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shi, Yan; Wu, Tiecheng; Cai, Maolin; Liu, Chong [Beihang University, Beijing (China)
2016-03-15
Hydropneumatic transformer (short for HP transformer) is used to pump pressurized hydraulic oil. Whereas, due to its insufficient usage of energy and low efficiency, a new kind of HP transformer: EEUHP transformer (Expansion energy used hydropneumatic transformer) was proposed. To illustrate the characteristics of the EEUHP transformer, a mathematical model was built. To verify the mathematical model, an experimental prototype was setup and studied. Through simulation and experimental study on the EEUHP transformer, the influence of five key parameters on the output flow of the EEUHP transformer were obtained, and some conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, the mathematical model was proved to be valid. Furthermore, the EEUHP transformer costs fewer of compressed air than the normal HP transformer when the output flow of the two kinds of transformers are almost same. Moreover, with an increase in the output pressure, the output flow decreases sharply. Finally, with an increase in the effective area of hydraulic output port, the output flow increases distinctly. This research can be referred to in the performance and design optimization of the EEUHP transformers.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi
1995-03-01
This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)
Girard, Sylvain; Mallet, Vivien; Korsakissok, Irène; Mathieu, Anne
2016-04-01
Simulations of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides involve large uncertainties originating from the limited knowledge of meteorological input data, composition, amount and timing of emissions, and some model parameters. The estimation of these uncertainties is an essential complement to modeling for decision making in case of an accidental release. We have studied the relative influence of a set of uncertain inputs on several outputs from the Eulerian model Polyphemus/Polair3D on the Fukushima case. We chose to use the variance-based sensitivity analysis method of Sobol'. This method requires a large number of model evaluations which was not achievable directly due to the high computational cost of Polyphemus/Polair3D. To circumvent this issue, we built a mathematical approximation of the model using Gaussian process emulation. We observed that aggregated outputs are mainly driven by the amount of emitted radionuclides, while local outputs are mostly sensitive to wind perturbations. The release height is notably influential, but only in the vicinity of the source. Finally, averaging either spatially or temporally tends to cancel out interactions between uncertain inputs.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Hart, Kenneth
2003-01-01
The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...
A linearized dispersion relation for orthorhombic pseudo-acoustic modeling
Song, Xiaolei
2012-11-04
Wavefield extrapolation in acoustic orthorhombic anisotropic media suffers from wave-mode coupling and stability limitations in the parameter range. We introduce a linearized form of the dispersion relation for acoustic orthorhombic media to model acoustic wavefields. We apply the lowrank approximation approach to handle the corresponding space-wavenumber mixed-domain operator. Numerical experiments show that the proposed wavefield extrapolator is accurate and practically free of dispersions. Further, there is no coupling of qSv and qP waves, because we use the analytical dispersion relation. No constraints on Thomsen\\'s parameters are required for stability. The linearized expression may provide useful application for parameter estimation in orthorhombic media.
Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs.
Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko
2018-01-01
The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.
Application of GIS to modified models of vehicle emission dispersion
Jin, Taosheng; Fu, Lixin
This paper reports on a preliminary study of the forecast and evaluation of transport-related air pollution dispersion in urban areas. Some modifications of the traditional Gauss dispersion models are provided, and especially a crossroad model is built, which considers the great variation of vehicle emission attributed to different driving patterns at the crossroad. The above models are combined with a self-developed geographic information system (GIS) platform, and a simulative system with graphical interfaces is built. The system aims at visually describing the influences on the urban environment by urban traffic characteristics and therefore gives a reference to the improvement of urban air quality. Due to the introduction of a self-developed GIS platform and a creative crossroad model, the system is more effective, flexible and accurate. Finally, a comparison of the simulated (predicted) and observed hourly concentration is given, which indicates a good simulation.
Kumar, Sujay V.; Wang, Shugong; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Xia, Youlong
2017-11-01
Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.
Multi input single output model predictive control of non-linear bio-polymerization process
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arumugasamy, Senthil Kumar; Ahmad, Z. [School of Chemical Engineering, Univerisiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan,14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)
2015-05-15
This paper focuses on Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Model Predictive Control of bio-polymerization process in which mechanistic model is developed and linked with the feedforward neural network model to obtain a hybrid model (Mechanistic-FANN) of lipase-catalyzed ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone (ε-CL) for Poly (ε-caprolactone) production. In this research, state space model was used, in which the input to the model were the reactor temperatures and reactor impeller speeds and the output were the molecular weight of polymer (M{sub n}) and polymer polydispersity index. State space model for MISO created using System identification tool box of Matlab™. This state space model is used in MISO MPC. Model predictive control (MPC) has been applied to predict the molecular weight of the biopolymer and consequently control the molecular weight of biopolymer. The result shows that MPC is able to track reference trajectory and give optimum movement of manipulated variable.
Unconfined Groundwater Dispersion Model On Sand Layers In Coral Island
Sultan
2016-01-01
The research objective is to analyze the sand layer to determine the characteristics of the unconfined groundwater aquifer on coral island and found the dispersion model of unconfined groundwater in the sand layer in the coral island. The method used is direct research in the field, laboratory analysis and secondary data. Observations geological conditions, as well as the measurement and interpretation of geoelectrical potential groundwater models based on the value of the conductivity of gro...
Analytical solution of dispersion relations for the nuclear optical model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
VanderKam, J.M. [Center for Communications Research, Thanet Road, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Weisel, G.J. [Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, and Duke University, Box 90308, Durham, NC 27708-0308 (United States); Penn State Altoona, 3000 Ivyside Park, Altoona, PA 16601-3760 (United States); Tornow, W. [Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, and Duke University, Box 90308, Durham, NC 27708-0308 (United States)
2000-12-01
Analytical solutions of dispersion integral relations, linking the real and imaginary parts of the nuclear optical model, have been derived. These are displayed for some widely used forms of the volume- and surface-absorptive nuclear potentials. When the analytical solutions are incorporated into the optical-model search code GENOA, replacing a numerical integration, the code runs three and a half to seven times faster, greatly aiding the analysis of direct-reaction, elastic scattering data. (author)
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sáňka, O.; Melymuk, L.; Čupr, P.; Dvorská, Alice; Klánová, J.
2014-01-01
Roč. 90, oct (2014), s. 88-95 ISSN 1352-2310 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : passive air sampling * air dispersion modeling * GIS * polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons * emission inventories Subject RIV: DI - Air Pollution ; Quality Impact factor: 3.281, year: 2014
Comparison of marine dispersion model predictions with environmental radionuclide concentrations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson, C.E.; McKay, W.A.
1988-01-01
The comparison of marine dispersion model results with measurements is an essential part of model development and testing. The results from two residual flow models are compared with seawater concentrations, and in one case with concentrations measured in marine molluscs. For areas with short turnover times, seawater concentrations respond rapidly to variations in discharge rate and marine currents. These variations are difficult to model, and comparison with concentrations in marine animals provides an alternative and complementary technique for model validation with the advantages that the measurements reflect the mean conditions and frequently form a useful time series. (author)
Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model
Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong
In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying
Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model
Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong
2016-01-01
In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying
Comparison of turbulent particle dispersion models in turbulent shear flows
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Laín
2007-09-01
Full Text Available This work compares the performance of two Lagrangian turbulent particle dispersion models: the standard model (e.g., that presented in Sommerfeld et al. (1993, in which the fluctuating fluid velocity experienced by the particle is composed of two components, one correlated with the previous time step and a second one randomly sampled from a Wiener process, and the model proposed by Minier and Peirano (2001, which is based on the PDF approach and performs closure at the level of acceleration of the fluid experienced by the particle. Formulation of a Langevin equation model for the increments of fluid velocity seen by the particle allows capturing some underlying physics of particle dispersion in general turbulent flows while keeping the mathematical manipulation of the stochastic model simple, thereby avoiding some pitfalls and simplifying the derivation of macroscopic relations. The performance of both dispersion models is tested in the configurations of grid-generated turbulence (Wells and Stock (1983 experiments, simple shear flow (Hyland et al., 1999 and confined axisymmetric jet flow laden with solids (Hishida and Maeda (1987 experiments.
Physical modelling of flow and dispersion over complex terrain
Cermak, J. E.
1984-09-01
Atmospheric motion and dispersion over topography characterized by irregular (or regular) hill-valley or mountain-valley distributions are strongly dependent upon three general sets of variables. These are variables that describe topographic geometry, synoptic-scale winds and surface-air temperature distributions. In addition, pollutant concentration distributions also depend upon location and physical characteristics of the pollutant source. Overall fluid-flow complexity and variability from site to site have stimulated the development and use of physical modelling for determination of flow and dispersion in many wind-engineering applications. Models with length scales as small as 1:12,000 have been placed in boundary-layer wind tunnels to study flows in which forced convection by synoptic winds is of primary significance. Flows driven primarily by forces arising from temperature differences (gravitational or free convection) have been investigated by small-scale physical models placed in an isolated space (gravitational convection chamber). Similarity criteria and facilities for both forced and gravitational-convection flow studies are discussed. Forced-convection modelling is illustrated by application to dispersion of air pollutants by unstable flow near a paper mill in the state of Maryland and by stable flow over Point Arguello, California. Gravitational-convection modelling is demonstrated by a study of drainage flow and pollutant transport from a proposed mining operation in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Other studies in which field data are available for comparison with model data are reviewed.
Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models
Koks, E.E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Husby, T.G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.
2016-01-01
A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of
DIMITRI 1.0: Beschrijving en toepassing van een dynamisch input-output model
Wilting HC; Blom WF; Thomas R; Idenburg AM; LAE
2001-01-01
DIMITRI, the Dynamic Input-Output Model to study the Impacts of Technology Related Innovations, was developed in the framework of the RIVM Environment and Economy project to answer questions about interrelationships between economy, technology and the environment. DIMITRI, a meso-economic model,
Logistics flows and enterprise input-output models: aggregate and disaggregate analysis
Albino, V.; Yazan, Devrim; Messeni Petruzzelli, A.; Okogbaa, O.G.
2011-01-01
In the present paper, we propose the use of enterprise input-output (EIO) models to describe and analyse the logistics flows considering spatial issues and related environmental effects associated with production and transportation processes. In particular, transportation is modelled as a specific
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, H.J.; Han, M.H.; Hwang, W.T.; Kim, E.H.
2008-01-01
Modeling an atmospheric dispersion of a radioactive plume plays an influential role in assessing the environmental impacts caused by nuclear accidents. The performance of data assimilation techniques combined with Gaussian model outputs and measurements to improve forecasting abilities are investigated in this study. Tracer dispersion experiments are performed to produce field data by assuming a radiological emergency. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and linear regression filter are considered to assimilate the Gaussian model outputs with measurements. ANFIS is trained so that the model outputs are likely to be more accurate for the experimental data. Linear regression filter is designed to assimilate measurements similar to the ANFIS. It is confirmed that ANFIS could be an appropriate method for an improvement of the forecasting capability of an atmospheric dispersion model in the case of a radiological emergency, judging from the higher correlation coefficients between the measured and the assimilated ones rather than a linear regression filter. This kind of data assimilation method could support a decision-making system when deciding on the best available countermeasures for public health from among emergency preparedness alternatives
Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aminmohammad Saberian
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.
He, Yuning
2015-01-01
Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.
Modeling and control of the output current of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Pasupathi, Sivakumar
2015-01-01
In this work, a dynamic Matlab SIMULINK model of the relationship between the fuel cell current set point of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system and the output current of the system is developed. The model contains an estimated fuel cell model, based on a polarization curve and assumed first order...... dynamics, as well as a battery model based on an equivalent circuit model and a balance of plant power consumption model. The models are tuned with experimental data and verified using a verification data set. The model is used to develop an output current controller which can control the charge current...... of the battery. The controller is a PI controller with feedforward and anti-windup. The performance of the controller is tested and verified on the physical system....
Modeling of Output Characteristics of a UV Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Snezhana Georgieva Gocheva-Ilieva
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper examines experiment data for a Ne-CuBr UV copper ion laser excited by longitudinal pulsed discharge emitting in multiline regime. The flexible multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs method has been used to develop nonparametric regression models describing the laser output power and service life of the devices. The models have been constructed as explicit functions of 9 basic input laser characteristics. The obtained models account for local nonlinearities of the relationships within the various multivariate subregions. The built best MARS models account for over 98% of data. The models are used to estimate the investigated output laser characteristics of existing UV lasers. The capabilities for using the models in predicting existing and future experiments have been demonstrated. Specific analyses have been presented comparing the models with actual experiments. The obtained results are applicable for guiding and planning the engineering experiment. The modeling methodology can be applied for a wide range of similar lasers and laser devices.
Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul
2017-11-01
In recent years eco-efficiency which considers the effect of production process on environment in determining the efficiency of firms have gained traction and a lot of attention. Rice farming is one of such production processes which typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable. In efficiency analysis, these undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in the model to obtain the actual estimation of firm's efficiency. There are numerous approaches that have been used in data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature to account for undesirable outputs of which directional distance function (DDF) approach is the most widely used as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, slack based DDF DEA approaches considers the output shortfalls and input excess in determining efficiency. In situations when data uncertainty is present, the deterministic DEA model is not suitable to be used as the effects of uncertain data will not be considered. In this case, it has been found that interval data approach is suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding the underlying data distribution and membership function. The proposed model uses an enhanced DEA model which is based on DDF approach and incorporates slack based measure to determine efficiency in the presence of undesirable factors and data uncertainty. Interval data approach was used to estimate the values of inputs, undesirable outputs and desirable outputs. Two separate slack based interval DEA models were constructed for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The developed model was used to determine rice farmers efficiency from Kepala Batas, Kedah. The obtained results were later compared to the results obtained using a deterministic DDF DEA model. The study found that 15 out of 30 farmers are efficient in all cases. It
A computer model for dispersed fluid-solid turbulent flows
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, C.H.; Tulig, T.J.
1985-01-01
A computer model is being developed to simulate two-phase turbulent flow phenomena in fluids containing finely dispersed solids. The model is based on a dual-continuum picture of the individual phases and an extension of a two-equation turbulence closure theory. The resulting set of nonlinear partial differential equations are solved using a finite difference procedure with special treatment to promote convergence. The model has been checked against a number of idealized flow problems with known solutions. The authors are currently comparing model predictions with measurements to determine a proper set of turbulence parameters needed for simulating two-phase turbulent flows
Difficulties in modeling dispersed-flow film boiling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andreani, M.; Yadigaroglu, G.
1991-01-01
Dispersed Flow Film Boiling (DFFB) is characterized by important departures from thermal and velocity equilibrium that make it suitable for modeling with two-fluid models. The fundamental limitations and difficulties imposed by the one-dimensional nature of these models are extensively discussed. The validity of the assumptions and empirical laws used to close the system of conservation equations is critically reviewed, in light of the multidimensional aspects of the problem. Modifications that could improve the physics of the models are identified. (orig.) [de
An Improved Mathematical Model for Computing Power Output of Solar Photovoltaic Modules
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdul Qayoom Jakhrani
2014-01-01
Full Text Available It is difficult to determine the input parameters values for equivalent circuit models of photovoltaic modules through analytical methods. Thus, the previous researchers preferred to use numerical methods. Since, the numerical methods are time consuming and need long term time series data which is not available in most developing countries, an improved mathematical model was formulated by combination of analytical and numerical methods to overcome the limitations of existing methods. The values of required model input parameters were computed analytically. The expression for output current of photovoltaic module was determined explicitly by Lambert W function and voltage was determined numerically by Newton-Raphson method. Moreover, the algebraic equations were derived for the shape factor which involves the ideality factor and the series resistance of a single diode photovoltaic module power output model. The formulated model results were validated with rated power output of a photovoltaic module provided by manufacturers using local meteorological data, which gave ±2% error. It was found that the proposed model is more practical in terms of precise estimations of photovoltaic module power output for any required location and number of variables used.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martin, F.
2013-07-01
One of the main challenges of the atmospheric sciences is to reproduce as well as possible the phenomena and processes of pollutants in the atmosphere. To do it, mathematical models based in this case on fluid dynamics and mass and energy conservation equations, equations that govern the atmospheric chemistry, etc., adapted to the spatial scales to be simulated, are developed. The dispersion models simulate the processes of transport, dispersion, chemical transformation and elimination by deposition that air pollutants undergo once they are emitted. Atmospheric dispersion models with their multiple applications have become essential tools for the air quality management. (Author)
Implementation of meso-scale radioactive dispersion model for GPU
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sunarko [National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN), Jakarta (Indonesia). Nuclear Energy Assessment Center; Suud, Zaki [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia). Physics Dept.
2017-05-15
Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Method (LPDM) is applied to model atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material in a meso-scale of a few tens of kilometers for site study purpose. Empirical relationships are used to determine the dispersion coefficient for various atmospheric stabilities. Diagnostic 3-D wind-field is solved based on data from one meteorological station using mass-conservation principle. Particles representing radioactive pollutant are dispersed in the wind-field as a point source. Time-integrated air concentration is calculated using kernel density estimator (KDE) in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. Parallel code is developed for GTX-660Ti GPU with a total of 1 344 scalar processors using CUDA. A test of 1-hour release discovers that linear speedup is achieved starting at 28 800 particles-per-hour (pph) up to about 20 x at 14 4000 pph. Another test simulating 6-hour release with 36 000 pph resulted in a speedup of about 60 x. Statistical analysis reveals that resulting grid doses are nearly identical in both CPU and GPU versions of the code.
Dispersion Relations for Electroweak Observables in Composite Higgs Models
Contino, Roberto
2015-12-14
We derive dispersion relations for the electroweak oblique observables measured at LEP in the context of $SO(5)/SO(4)$ composite Higgs models. It is shown how these relations can be used and must be modified when modeling the spectral functions through a low-energy effective description of the strong dynamics. The dispersion relation for the parameter $\\epsilon_3$ is then used to estimate the contribution from spin-1 resonances at the 1-loop level. Finally, it is shown that the sign of the contribution to the $\\hat S$ parameter from the lowest-lying spin-1 states is not necessarily positive definite, but depends on the energy scale at which the asymptotic behavior of current correlators is attained.
El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R
2014-03-01
Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Plutonium explosive dispersal modeling using the MACCS2 computer code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steele, C.M.; Wald, T.L.; Chanin, D.I.
1998-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to derive the necessary parameters to be used to establish a defensible methodology to perform explosive dispersal modeling of respirable plutonium using Gaussian methods. A particular code, MACCS2, has been chosen for this modeling effort due to its application of sophisticated meteorological statistical sampling in accordance with the philosophy of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.145, ''Atmospheric Dispersion Models for Potential Accident Consequence Assessments at Nuclear Power Plants''. A second advantage supporting the selection of the MACCS2 code for modeling purposes is that meteorological data sets are readily available at most Department of Energy (DOE) and NRC sites. This particular MACCS2 modeling effort focuses on the calculation of respirable doses and not ground deposition. Once the necessary parameters for the MACCS2 modeling are developed and presented, the model is benchmarked against empirical test data from the Double Tracks shot of project Roller Coaster (Shreve 1965) and applied to a hypothetical plutonium explosive dispersal scenario. Further modeling with the MACCS2 code is performed to determine a defensible method of treating the effects of building structure interaction on the respirable fraction distribution as a function of height. These results are related to the Clean Slate 2 and Clean Slate 3 bunkered shots of Project Roller Coaster. Lastly a method is presented to determine the peak 99.5% sector doses on an irregular site boundary in the manner specified in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 (1983). Parametric analyses are performed on the major analytic assumptions in the MACCS2 model to define the potential errors that are possible in using this methodology
Plutonium explosive dispersal modeling using the MACCS2 computer code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Steele, C.M.; Wald, T.L.; Chanin, D.I.
1998-11-01
The purpose of this paper is to derive the necessary parameters to be used to establish a defensible methodology to perform explosive dispersal modeling of respirable plutonium using Gaussian methods. A particular code, MACCS2, has been chosen for this modeling effort due to its application of sophisticated meteorological statistical sampling in accordance with the philosophy of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.145, ``Atmospheric Dispersion Models for Potential Accident Consequence Assessments at Nuclear Power Plants``. A second advantage supporting the selection of the MACCS2 code for modeling purposes is that meteorological data sets are readily available at most Department of Energy (DOE) and NRC sites. This particular MACCS2 modeling effort focuses on the calculation of respirable doses and not ground deposition. Once the necessary parameters for the MACCS2 modeling are developed and presented, the model is benchmarked against empirical test data from the Double Tracks shot of project Roller Coaster (Shreve 1965) and applied to a hypothetical plutonium explosive dispersal scenario. Further modeling with the MACCS2 code is performed to determine a defensible method of treating the effects of building structure interaction on the respirable fraction distribution as a function of height. These results are related to the Clean Slate 2 and Clean Slate 3 bunkered shots of Project Roller Coaster. Lastly a method is presented to determine the peak 99.5% sector doses on an irregular site boundary in the manner specified in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 (1983). Parametric analyses are performed on the major analytic assumptions in the MACCS2 model to define the potential errors that are possible in using this methodology.
About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saltelli, Andrea; Sobol', Ilya M
1995-01-01
Rank transformations are frequently employed in numerical experiments involving a computational model, especially in the context of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Response surface replacement and parameter screening are tasks which may benefit from a rank transformation. Ranks can cope with nonlinear (albeit monotonic) input-output distributions, allowing the use of linear regression techniques. Rank transformed statistics are more robust, and provide a useful solution in the presence of long tailed input and output distributions. As is known to practitioners, care must be employed when interpreting the results of such analyses, as any conclusion drawn using ranks does not translate easily to the original model. In the present note an heuristic approach is taken, to explore, by way of practical examples, the effect of a rank transformation on the outcome of a sensitivity analysis. An attempt is made to identify trends, and to correlate these effects to a model taxonomy. Employing sensitivity indices, whereby the total variance of the model output is decomposed into a sum of terms of increasing dimensionality, we show that the main effect of the rank transformation is to increase the relative weight of the first order terms (the 'main effects'), at the expense of the 'interactions' and 'higher order interactions'. As a result the influence of those parameters which influence the output mostly by way of interactions may be overlooked in an analysis based on the ranks. This difficulty increases with the dimensionality of the problem, and may lead to the failure of a rank based sensitivity analysis. We suggest that the models can be ranked, with respect to the complexity of their input-output relationship, by mean of an 'Association' index I y . I y may complement the usual model coefficient of determination R y 2 as a measure of model complexity for the purpose of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Atmospheric dispersion modelling over complex terrain at small scale
Nosek, S.; Janour, Z.; Kukacka, L.; Jurcakova, K.; Kellnerova, R.; Gulikova, E.
2014-03-01
Previous study concerned of qualitative modelling neutrally stratified flow over open-cut coal mine and important surrounding topography at meso-scale (1:9000) revealed an important area for quantitative modelling of atmospheric dispersion at small-scale (1:3300). The selected area includes a necessary part of the coal mine topography with respect to its future expansion and surrounding populated areas. At this small-scale simultaneous measurement of velocity components and concentrations in specified points of vertical and horizontal planes were performed by two-dimensional Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and Fast-Response Flame Ionization Detector (FFID), respectively. The impact of the complex terrain on passive pollutant dispersion with respect to the prevailing wind direction was observed and the prediction of the air quality at populated areas is discussed. The measured data will be used for comparison with another model taking into account the future coal mine transformation. Thus, the impact of coal mine transformation on pollutant dispersion can be observed.
Input-output and energy demand models for Ireland: Data collection report. Part 1: EXPLOR
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Henry, E W; Scott, S
1981-01-01
Data are presented in support of EXPLOR, an input-output economic model for Ireland. The data follow the listing of exogenous data-sets used by Batelle in document X11/515/77. Data are given for 1974, 1980, and 1985 and consist of household consumption, final demand-production, and commodity prices. (ACR)
From LCC to LCA Using a Hybrid Input Output Model – A Maritime Case Study
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjær, Louise Laumann; Pagoropoulos, Aris; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky
2015-01-01
As companies try to embrace life cycle thinking, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) have proven to be powerful tools. In this paper, an Environmental Input-Output model is used for analysis as it enables an LCA using the same economic input data as LCC. This approach helps...
Analyses of gust fronts by means of limited area NWP model outputs
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kašpar, Marek
67-68, - (2003), s. 559-572 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/00/1451 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : gust front * limited area NWP model * output Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2003
Input-Output model for waste management plan for Nigeria | Njoku ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
An Input-Output Model for Waste Management Plan has been developed for Nigeria based on Leontief concept and life cycle analysis. Waste was considered as source of pollution, loss of resources, and emission of green house gasses from bio-chemical treatment and decomposition, with negative impact on the ...
The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model
Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2013-01-01
Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture
The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model
Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2012-01-01
Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional
a mathematical model for predicting output in an oilfield in the niger
African Journals Online (AJOL)
eobe
resultant model was found to have greater utility in predicting oil field output as it produced less residual. The ... decision making by the oilfield manager is facilitated by reliable ... Scaling laws from percolation theory was used to predict oilfield ...
texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philip Leifeld
2013-11-01
Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.
Input-output model of regional environmental and economic impacts of nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson, M.H.; Bennett, J.T.
1979-01-01
The costs of delayed licensing of nuclear power plants calls for a more-comprehensive method of quantifying the economic and environmental impacts on a region. A traditional input-output (I-O) analysis approach is extended to assess the effects of changes in output, income, employment, pollution, water consumption, and the costs and revenues of local government disaggregated among 23 industry sectors during the construction and operating phases. Unlike earlier studies, this model uses nonlinear environmental interactions and specifies environmental feedbacks to the economic sector. 20 references
Landau fluid model for weakly nonlinear dispersive magnetohydrodynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Passot, T.; Sulem, P. L.
2005-01-01
In may astrophysical plasmas such as the solar wind, the terrestrial magnetosphere, or in the interstellar medium at small enough scales, collisions are negligible. When interested in the large-scale dynamics, a hydrodynamic approach is advantageous not only because its numerical simulations is easier than of the full Vlasov-Maxwell equations, but also because it provides a deep understanding of cross-scale nonlinear couplings. It is thus of great interest to construct fluid models that extended the classical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations to collisionless situations. Two ingredients need to be included in such a model to capture the main kinetic effects: finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections and Landau damping, the only fluid-particle resonance that can affect large scales and can be modeled in a relatively simple way. The Modelization of Landau damping in a fluid formalism is hardly possible in the framework of a systematic asymptotic expansion and was addressed mainly by means of parameter fitting in a linearized setting. We introduced a similar Landau fluid model but, that has the advantage of taking dispersive effects into account. This model properly describes dispersive MHD waves in quasi-parallel propagation. Since, by construction, the system correctly reproduces their linear dynamics, appropriate tests should address the nonlinear regime. In a first case, we show analytically that the weakly nonlinear modulational dynamics of quasi-parallel propagating Alfven waves is well captured. As a second test we consider the parametric decay instability of parallel Alfven waves and show that numerical simulations of the dispersive Landau fluid model lead to results that closely match the outcome of hybrid simulations. (Author)
Dispersion of tracers by the oceanic eddy field modelling programme
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richards, K.J.; O'Farrell, S.P.
1987-01-01
A numerical model has been developed to study the dispersion of tracers by the oceanic eddy field. The present study is designed to study the dispersion of particles in a mesoscale eddy field produced by the numerical model. Dispersion rates are calculated for flows above three types of topography, a flat bottom, a random collection of hills and a ridge. The presence of topography is found to significantly affect the flow. The effective diffusion coefficient of the flow near the bottom is reduced by 20% for the random topography and 60% for the ridge from that for the flat bottom case. Estimates are given of the number of float years required to obtain a given accuracy for the diffusion coefficient. At the surface a modest number of floats (order 5) are required to obtain a 50% accuracy. However at the bottom, to be within a factor of 2 of the true value for the flows considered requires respectively 26, 42 and 103 float years for the flat, random and ridge cases. (author)
Dispersion in the wake of a model industrial complex
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hatcher, R.V.; Meroney, R.N.; Peterka, J.A.; Kothari, K.
1977-06-01
Models (1:200 scale) of the EOCR reactor building and surrounding silo and tank buildings at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho were put into the Meteorological Wind Tunnel at Colorado State University for the purpose of studying the effects of building wakes on dispersion. Flow visualization was done and concentration measurements were taken. The test program consisted of systematic releases from ground, building height, and stack height sources with no appreciable plume rise. The program was repeated for cases of moderately unstable, neutral, moderately stable, and stable conditions in the wind tunnel. Results show that the buildings significantly alter the dispersion patterns and the addition of any extra buildings or slight terrain change in the immediate vicinity of the building has a major effect. In the near wake region the effects of stratification were still evident causing slightly higher concentrations for stable conditions and slightly lower for unstable. Current dispersion models are discussed and evaluated that predict concentrations in the building wake region
Viscoelasticity and diffusional properties of colloidal model dispersions
Naegele, G
2003-01-01
We examine linear viscoelastic, and translational and rotational diffusion properties of colloidal model dispersions. Theoretical results are discussed, in comparison with experiments, for monodisperse suspensions of charged and neutral colloidal spheres, and for binary dispersions of differently sized tracer and host particles. The theoretical methods employed comprise a mode-coupling scheme for Brownian particles, and a rooted cluster expansion scheme of tracer diffusion with two- and three-body hydrodynamic interactions included. We analyse in particular the validity of various empirical generalized Stokes-Einstein-Debye (SED) relations between the (dynamic) shear viscosity and translational/rotational diffusion coefficients. Some of these generalized SED relations are basic to microrheological measurements aimed at characterizing the viscoelasticity of complex fluids on the basis of the diffusional properties of immersed tracer particles.
Viscoelasticity and diffusional properties of colloidal model dispersions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naegele, Gerhard
2003-01-01
We examine linear viscoelastic, and translational and rotational diffusion properties of colloidal model dispersions. Theoretical results are discussed, in comparison with experiments, for monodisperse suspensions of charged and neutral colloidal spheres, and for binary dispersions of differently sized tracer and host particles. The theoretical methods employed comprise a mode-coupling scheme for Brownian particles, and a rooted cluster expansion scheme of tracer diffusion with two- and three-body hydrodynamic interactions included. We analyse in particular the validity of various empirical generalized Stokes-Einstein-Debye (SED) relations between the (dynamic) shear viscosity and translational/rotational diffusion coefficients. Some of these generalized SED relations are basic to microrheological measurements aimed at characterizing the viscoelasticity of complex fluids on the basis of the diffusional properties of immersed tracer particles
ANALYSIS OF THE BANDUNG CHANGES EXCELLENT POTENTIAL THROUGH INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL USING INDEX LE MASNE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Teti Sofia Yanti
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Input-Output Table is arranged to present an overview of the interrelationships and interdependence between units of activity (sector production in the whole economy. Therefore the input-output models are complete and comprehensive analytical tool. The usefulness of input-output tables is an analysis of the economic structure of the national/regional level which covers the structure of production and value-added (GDP of each sector. For the purposes of planning and evaluation of the outcomes of development that is comprehensive both national and smaller scale (district/city, a model for regional development planning approach can use the model input-output analysis. Analysis of Bandung Economic Structure did use Le Masne index, by comparing the coefficients of the technology in 2003 and 2008, of which nearly 50% change. The trade sector has grown very conspicuous than other areas, followed by the services of road transport and air transport services, the development priorities and investment Bandung should be directed to these areas, this is due to these areas can be thrust and be power attraction for the growth of other areas. The areas that experienced the highest decrease was Industrial Chemicals and Goods from Chemistry, followed by Oil and Refinery Industry Textile Industry Except For Garment.
Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.
Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto
2017-01-01
Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.
Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petr Hajek
Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.
CRUNCH, Dispersion Model for Continuous Dense Vapour Release in Atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jagger, S.F.
1987-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: The situation modelled is as follows. A dense gas emerges from a source such that it can be considered to emerge through a rectangular area, placed in the vertical plane and perpendicular to the plume direction, which assumes that of the ambient wind. The gas flux at the source, and in every plane perpendicular to the plume direction, is constant in time and a stationary flow field has been attained. For this to apply, the characteristic time of release must be much larger than that for dispersal of the contaminant. The plume can be thought to consist of a number of rectangular elements or 'puffs' emerging from the source at regular time intervals. The model follows the development of these puffs at a series of downwind points. These puffs are immediately assumed to advect with the ambient wind at their half-height. The plume also slumps due to the action of gravity and is allowed to entrain air through its sides and top surface. Spreading of a fluid element is caused by pressure differences across this element and since the pressure gradient in the wind direction is small, the resulting pressure differences and slumping velocities are small also, thus permitting this convenient approximation. Initially, as the plume slumps, its vertical dimension decreases and with it the slumping velocity and advection velocity. Thus the plume advection velocity varies as a function of downwind distance. With the present steady state modelling, and to satisfy continuity constraints, there must be consequent adjustment of plume height. Calculation of this parameter from the volume flux ensures this occurs. As the cloud height begins to grow, the advection velocity increases and the plume height decreases accordingly. With advection downwind, the cloud gains buoyancy by entraining air and, if the cloud is cold, by absorbing heat from the ground. Eventually the plume begins to disperse as would a passive pollutant, through the action of
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lee, Jonghyun; Rolle, Massimo; Kitanidis, Peter K.
2018-01-01
Most recent research on hydrodynamic dispersion in porous media has focused on whole-domain dispersion while other research is largely on laboratory-scale dispersion. This work focuses on the contribution of a single block in a numerical model to dispersion. Variability of fluid velocity and conc...
Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.
2013-06-28
Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sie Long Kek
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A computational approach is proposed for solving the discrete time nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem. Our aim is to obtain the optimal output solution of the original optimal control problem through solving the simplified model-based optimal control problem iteratively. In our approach, the adjusted parameters are introduced into the model used such that the differences between the real system and the model used can be computed. Particularly, system optimization and parameter estimation are integrated interactively. On the other hand, the output is measured from the real plant and is fed back into the parameter estimation problem to establish a matching scheme. During the calculation procedure, the iterative solution is updated in order to approximate the true optimal solution of the original optimal control problem despite model-reality differences. For illustration, a wastewater treatment problem is studied and the results show the efficiency of the approach proposed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rice, P [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN; Smith, V K
1977-11-01
This paper describes a forty-two nonlinear equation model of the U.S. petroleum industry estimated over the period 1946 to 1973. The model specifies refinery outputs and prices as being simultaneously determined by market forces while the domestic output of crude oil is determined in a block-recursive segment of the model. The simultaneous behavioral equations are estimated with nonlinear two-stage least-squares adjusted to reflect the implications of autocorrelation for those equations where it appears to be a problem. A multi-period sample simulation, together with forecasts for 1974 and 1975 are used to evaluate the model's performance. Finally, it is used to forecast to 1985 under two scenarios and compared with the Federal Energy Administration's forecast for the same period. 2 figures, 8 tables, 38 references.
On unitarity of the particle-hole dispersive optical model
Gorelik, M. L.; Shlomo, S.; Tulupov, B. A.; Urin, M. H.
2018-02-01
For the recently developed particle-hole dispersive optical model, weak violations of unitarity due to a phenomenological description of the spreading effect are considered. Methods for unitarity restoration are proposed and implemented for the 208Pb nucleus in the description of the energy-averaged isoscalar monopole double transition density and strength functions in a wide excitation energy interval that includes the isoscalar giant monopole resonance and its overtone. To illustrate abilities of the model, direct neutron decay of the mentioned giant resonance is also considered.
MESOI, an interactive atmospheric dispersion model for emergency response applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Glantz, C.S.
1984-01-01
MESOI is an interactive atmospheric dispersion model that has been developed for use by the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in responding to emergencies at nuclear facilities. MESOI uses both straight-line Gaussian plume and Lagrangian trajectory Gaussian puff models to estimate time-integrated ground-level air and surface concentrations. Puff trajectories are determined from temporally and spatially varying horizontal wind fields that are defined in 3 dimensions. Other processes treated in MESOI include dry deposition, wet deposition and radioactive decay
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yambert, M.W.; Lombardi, D.A.; Goode, W.D. Jr.; Bloom, S.G.
1998-08-01
The original WAKE dispersion model a component of the HGSYSTEM/UF 6 model suite, is based on Shell Research Ltd.'s HGSYSTEM Version 3.0 and was developed by the US Department of Energy for use in estimating downwind dispersion of materials due to accidental releases from gaseous diffusion plant (GDP) process buildings. The model is applicable to scenarios involving both ground-level and elevated releases into building wake cavities of non-reactive plumes that are either neutrally or positively buoyant. Over the 2-year period since its creation, the WAKE model has been used to perform consequence analyses for Safety Analysis Reports (SARs) associated with gaseous diffusion plants in Portsmouth (PORTS), Paducah (PGDP), and Oak Ridge. These applications have identified the need for additional model capabilities (such as the treatment of complex terrain and time-variant releases) not present in the original utilities which, in turn, has resulted in numerous modifications to these codes as well as the development of additional, stand-alone postprocessing utilities. Consequently, application of the model has become increasingly complex as the number of executable, input, and output files associated with a single model run has steadily grown. In response to these problems, a streamlined version of the WAKE model has been developed which integrates all calculations that are currently performed by the existing WAKE, and the various post-processing utilities. This report summarizes the efforts involved in developing this revised version of the WAKE model
A GIS-based atmospheric dispersion model for pollutants emitted by complex source areas.
Teggi, Sergio; Costanzini, Sofia; Ghermandi, Grazia; Malagoli, Carlotta; Vinceti, Marco
2018-01-01
Gaussian dispersion models are widely used to simulate the concentrations and deposition fluxes of pollutants emitted by source areas. Very often, the calculation time limits the number of sources and receptors and the geometry of the sources must be simple and without holes. This paper presents CAREA, a new GIS-based Gaussian model for complex source areas. CAREA was coded in the Python language, and is largely based on a simplified formulation of the very popular and recognized AERMOD model. The model allows users to define in a GIS environment thousands of gridded or scattered receptors and thousands of complex sources with hundreds of vertices and holes. CAREA computes ground level, or near ground level, concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of pollutants. The input/output and the runs of the model can be completely managed in GIS environment (e.g. inside a GIS project). The paper presents the CAREA formulation and its applications to very complex test cases. The tests shows that the processing time are satisfactory and that the definition of sources and receptors and the output retrieval are quite easy in a GIS environment. CAREA and AERMOD are compared using simple and reproducible test cases. The comparison shows that CAREA satisfactorily reproduces AERMOD simulations and is considerably faster than AERMOD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Reactimeter dispersion equation
A.G. Yuferov
2016-01-01
The aim of this work is to derive and analyze a reactimeter metrological model in the form of the dispersion equation which connects reactimeter input/output signal dispersions with superimposed random noise at the inlet. It is proposed to standardize the reactimeter equation form, presenting the main reactimeter computing unit by a convolution equation. Hence, the reactimeter metrological characteristics are completely determined by this unit hardware function which represents a transient re...
A modeling framework was developed to investigate the interactive effects of life history characteristics and landscape heterogeneity on dispersal success. An individual-based model was used to examine how dispersal between resource patches is affected by four landscape characte...
CONSTRUCTION OF A DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITH A HUMAN CAPITAL BLOCK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baranov A. O.
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The accumulation of human capital is an important factor of economic growth. It seems to be useful to include «human capital» as a factor of a macroeconomic model, as it helps to take into account the quality differentiation of the workforce. Most of the models usually distinguish labor force by the levels of education, while some of the factors remain unaccounted. Among them are health status and culture development level, which influence productivity level as well as gross product reproduction. Inclusion of the human capital block to the interindustry model can help to make it more reliable for economic development forecasting. The article presents a mathematical description of the extended dynamic input-output model (DIOM with a human capital block. The extended DIOM is based on the Input-Output Model from The KAMIN system (the System of Integrated Analyses of Interindustrial Information developed at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation and at the Novosibirsk State University. The extended input-output model can be used to analyze and forecast development of Russian economy.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne
1999-01-01
Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...... instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems....
Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation
Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi
2016-09-01
We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.
Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output.
Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R
2012-08-01
In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Applying Dispersive Changes to Lagrangian Particles in Groundwater Transport Models
Konikow, Leonard F.
2010-01-01
Method-of-characteristics groundwater transport models require that changes in concentrations computed within an Eulerian framework to account for dispersion be transferred to moving particles used to simulate advective transport. A new algorithm was developed to accomplish this transfer between nodal values and advecting particles more precisely and realistically compared to currently used methods. The new method scales the changes and adjustments of particle concentrations relative to limiting bounds of concentration values determined from the population of adjacent nodal values. The method precludes unrealistic undershoot or overshoot for concentrations of individual particles. In the new method, if dispersion causes cell concentrations to decrease during a time step, those particles in the cell having the highest concentration will decrease the most, and those with the lowest concentration will decrease the least. The converse is true if dispersion is causing concentrations to increase. Furthermore, if the initial concentration on a particle is outside the range of the adjacent nodal values, it will automatically be adjusted in the direction of the acceptable range of values. The new method is inherently mass conservative. ?? US Government 2010.
Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.
2011-12-31
In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.
Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models
Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr
2016-04-01
Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include
Dense-gas dispersion advection-diffusion model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ermak, D.L.
1992-07-01
A dense-gas version of the ADPIC particle-in-cell, advection- diffusion model was developed to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of denser-than-air releases. In developing the model, it was assumed that the dense-gas effects could be described in terms of the vertically-averaged thermodynamic properties and the local height of the cloud. The dense-gas effects were treated as a perturbation to the ambient thermodynamic properties (density and temperature), ground level heat flux, turbulence level (diffusivity), and windfield (gravity flow) within the local region of the dense-gas cloud. These perturbations were calculated from conservation of energy and conservation of momentum principles along with the ideal gas law equation of state for a mixture of gases. ADPIC, which is generally run in conjunction with a mass-conserving wind flow model to provide the advection field, contains all the dense-gas modifications within it. This feature provides the versatility of coupling the new dense-gas ADPIC with alternative wind flow models. The new dense-gas ADPIC has been used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of ground-level, colder-than-ambient, denser-than-air releases and has compared favorably with the results of field-scale experiments
Modeling skull's acoustic attenuation and dispersion on photoacoustic signal
Mohammadi, L.; Behnam, H.; Nasiriavanaki, M. R.
2017-03-01
Despite the great promising results of a recent new transcranial photoacoustic brain imaging technology, it has been shown that the presence of the skull severely affects the performance of this imaging modality. In this paper, we investigate the effect of skull on generated photoacoustic signals with a mathematical model. The developed model takes into account the frequency dependence attenuation and acoustic dispersion effects occur with the wave reflection and refraction at the skull surface. Numerical simulations based on the developed model are performed for calculating the propagation of photoacoustic waves through the skull. From the simulation results, it was found that the skull-induced distortion becomes very important and the reconstructed image would be strongly distorted without correcting these effects. In this regard, it is anticipated that an accurate quantification and modeling of the skull transmission effects would ultimately allow for skull aberration correction in transcranial photoacoustic brain imaging.
Dispersion of tracers by the oceanic eddy field modelling programme
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richards, K.J.
1986-01-01
A numerical model has been developed to study the dispersion of tracers by the oceanic eddy field. The study is designed to investigate the horizontal and vertical structure of the eddies and how this structure is influenced by the bottom topography. It is found that hills and valleys have a strong effect on the eddies above them. The flow close to the bottom has a tendency to be steered by the height contours. The surface and bottom flows become decorrelated and the vertical variation of the kinetic energy of the eddies is increased with higher topographic features. (author)
User manual of nuclide dispersion in phreatic aquifers model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rives, D.E.
1999-01-01
The Nuclide Dispersion in Phreatic Aquifers (DRAF) model was developed in the 'Division Estudios Ambientales' of the 'Gerencia de Seguridad Radiologica y Nuclear, Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica' (1991), for the Safety Assessment of Near Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities. Afterwards, it was modified in several opportunities, adapting it to a number of application conditions. The 'Manual del usuario del codigo DRAF' here presented is a reference document for the use of the last three versions of the code developed for the 'Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear' between 1995 and 1996. The DRAF model solves the three dimension's solute transport equation for porous media by the finite differences method. It takes into account the advection, dispersion, radioactive decay, and retention in the solid matrix processes, and has multiple possibilities for the source term. There are three versions of the model, two of them for the saturated zone and one for the unsaturated zone. All the versions have been verified in different conditions, and have been applied in exercises of the International Atomic Energy Agency and also in real cases. (author)
On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solow, A.R.
1991-01-01
Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question. 9 refs
On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solow, A.R.
1990-01-01
Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mariana Santos Matos Cavalca
2012-01-01
Full Text Available One of the main advantages of predictive control approaches is the capability of dealing explicitly with constraints on the manipulated and output variables. However, if the predictive control formulation does not consider model uncertainties, then the constraint satisfaction may be compromised. A solution for this inconvenience is to use robust model predictive control (RMPC strategies based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. However, LMI-based RMPC formulations typically consider only symmetric constraints. This paper proposes a method based on pseudoreferences to treat asymmetric output constraints in integrating SISO systems. Such technique guarantees robust constraint satisfaction and convergence of the state to the desired equilibrium point. A case study using numerical simulation indicates that satisfactory results can be achieved.
The Canadian Defence Input-Output Model DIO Version 4.41
2011-09-01
Request to develop DND tailored Input/Output Model. Electronic communication from AllenWeldon to Team Leader, Defence Economics Team onMarch 12, 2011...and similar contain- ers 166 1440 Handbags, wallets and similar personal articles such as eyeglass and cigar cases and coin purses 167 1450 Cotton yarn...408 3600 Radar and radio navigation equipment 409 3619 Semi-conductors 410 3621 Printed circuits 411 3622 Integrated circuits 412 3623 Other electronic
Majdalani, Samer; Guinot, Vincent; Delenne, Carole; Gebran, Hicham
2018-06-01
This paper is devoted to theoretical and experimental investigations of solute dispersion in heterogeneous porous media. Dispersion in heterogenous porous media has been reported to be scale-dependent, a likely indication that the proposed dispersion models are incompletely formulated. A high quality experimental data set of breakthrough curves in periodic model heterogeneous porous media is presented. In contrast with most previously published experiments, the present experiments involve numerous replicates. This allows the statistical variability of experimental data to be accounted for. Several models are benchmarked against the data set: the Fickian-based advection-dispersion, mobile-immobile, multirate, multiple region advection dispersion models, and a newly proposed transport model based on pure advection. A salient property of the latter model is that its solutions exhibit a ballistic behaviour for small times, while tending to the Fickian behaviour for large time scales. Model performance is assessed using a novel objective function accounting for the statistical variability of the experimental data set, while putting equal emphasis on both small and large time scale behaviours. Besides being as accurate as the other models, the new purely advective model has the advantages that (i) it does not exhibit the undesirable effects associated with the usual Fickian operator (namely the infinite solute front propagation speed), and (ii) it allows dispersive transport to be simulated on every heterogeneity scale using scale-independent parameters.
Air Dispersion Modeling for Building 3026C/D Demolition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ward, Richard C [ORNL; Sjoreen, Andrea L [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL
2010-06-01
This report presents estimates of dispersion coefficients and effective dose for potential air dispersion scenarios of uncontrolled releases from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) buildings 3026C, 3026D, and 3140 prior to or during the demolition of the 3026 Complex. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) AERMOD system1-6 was used to compute these estimates. AERMOD stands for AERMIC Model, where AERMIC is the American Meteorological Society-EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee. Five source locations (three in building 3026D and one each in building 3026C and the filter house 3140) and associated source characteristics were determined with the customer. In addition, the area of study was determined and building footprints and intake locations of air-handling systems were obtained. In addition to the air intakes, receptor sites consisting of ground level locations on four polar grids (50 m, 100 m, 200 m, and 500 m) and two intersecting lines of points (50 m separation), corresponding to sidewalks along Central Avenue and Fifth Street. Three years of meteorological data (2006 2008) were used each consisting of three datasets: 1) National Weather Service data; 2) upper air data for the Knoxville-Oak Ridge area; and 3) local weather data from Tower C (10 m, 30 m and 100 m) on the ORNL reservation. Annual average air concentration, highest 1 h average and highest 3 h average air concentrations were computed using AERMOD for the five source locations for the three years of meteorological data. The highest 1 h average air concentrations were converted to dispersion coefficients to characterize the atmospheric dispersion as the customer was interested in the most significant response and the highest 1 h average data reflects the best time-averaged values available from the AERMOD code. Results are presented in tabular and graphical form. The results for dose were obtained using radionuclide activities for each of the buildings provided by the customer.7
Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow
Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.
2004-01-01
This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases
Dispersion model for airborne radioactive particulates inside a process building
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, W.C.; Stoddard, D.H.
1984-02-01
An empirical model, predicting the spread of airborne radioactive particles after they are released inside a building, has been developed. The basis for this model is a composite of data for dispersion of airborne activity recorded during 12 case incidents. These incidents occurred at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) during approximately 90 plant-years of experience with the chemical and metallurgical processing of purified neptunium and plutonium. The model illustrates that the multiple-air-zone concept, used in the designs of many nuclear facilities, can be an efficient safety feature to limit the spread of airborne activity from a release. This study also provides some insight into an apparently anomalous behavior of airborne particulates, namely, their migration against the prevailing flow of ventilation air. 2 references, 12 figures, 4 tables
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel D. Cavanagh
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek; Boata, R.; Badescu, V.
2017-01-01
Roč. 121, 15 February (2017), s. 792-802 ISSN 0360-5442 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : photovoltaic plant * output power * forecasting * fuzzy model * generalized additive model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 4.520, year: 2016
Grouping influences output interference in short-term memory: a mixture modeling study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Min-Suk eKang
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Output interference is a source of forgetting induced by recalling. We investigated how grouping influences output interference in short-term memory. In Experiment 1, the participants were asked to remember four colored items. Those items were grouped by temporal coincidence as well as spatial alignment: two items were presented in the first memory array and two were presented in the second, and the items in both arrays were either vertically or horizontally aligned as well. The participants then performed two recall tasks in sequence by selecting a color presented at a cued location from a color wheel. In the same-group condition, the participants reported both items from the same memory array; however, in the different-group condition, the participants reported one item from each memory array. We analyzed participant responses with a mixture model, which yielded two measures: guess rate and precision of recalled memories. The guess rate in the second recall was higher for the different-group condition than for the same-group condition; however, the memory precisions obtained for both conditions were similarly degraded in the second recall. In Experiment 2, we varied the probability of the same- and different-group conditions with a ratio of 3 to 7. We expected output interference to be higher in the same-group condition than in the different-group condition. This is because items of the other group are more likely to be probed in the second recall phase and, thus, protecting those items during the first recall phase leads to a better performance. Nevertheless, the same pattern of results was robustly reproduced, suggesting grouping shields the grouped items from output interference because of the secured accessibility. We discussed how grouping influences output interference.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Havens, J.; Spicer, T.
1990-09-01
The topical report is one of a series on the development of methods for LNG vapor dispersion prediction for regulatory application. The results indicate that the DEGADIS model is superior both phenomenologically and in performance to the Gaussian line source model promulgated in 49 CFR 193 for LNG vapor dispersion simulation. Availability of the DEGADIS model for VAX and IBM-PC formats provides for wider use of the model and greater potential for industry and regulatory acceptance. The acceptance is seen as an important interim objective while research continues on vapor dispersion estimation methods which provide for effects of vapor detention systems, turbulence induced by plant structure, and plant/area topographical features
Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling
Verlinda, Jeremy Alan
The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode
Sensitivity of numerical dispersion modeling to explosive source parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baskett, R.L.; Cederwall, R.T.
1991-01-01
The calculation of downwind concentrations from non-traditional sources, such as explosions, provides unique challenges to dispersion models. The US Department of Energy has assigned the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) the task of estimating the impact of accidental radiological releases to the atmosphere anywhere in the world. Our experience includes responses to over 25 incidents in the past 16 years, and about 150 exercises a year. Examples of responses to explosive accidents include the 1980 Titan 2 missile fuel explosion near Damascus, Arkansas and the hydrogen gas explosion in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Based on judgment and experience, we frequently estimate the source geometry and the amount of toxic material aerosolized as well as its particle size distribution. To expedite our real-time response, we developed some automated algorithms and default assumptions about several potential sources. It is useful to know how well these algorithms perform against real-world measurements and how sensitive our dispersion model is to the potential range of input values. In this paper we present the algorithms we use to simulate explosive events, compare these methods with limited field data measurements, and analyze their sensitivity to input parameters. 14 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs
An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zheng-Xin Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first-order derivative of the 1-AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1,n, performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1,n, n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high-tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1,n model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1,n model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high-tech industry management.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Keller Alevtina
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the adequacy of such an algorithm itself allows: evaluating the appropriateness of investments in fixed assets, studying the final financial results of an industrial enterprise, depending on management decisions in the depreciation policy. It is necessary to note that the model in question for the enterprise is always degenerate. It is caused by the presence of zero rows in the matrix of capital expenditures by lines of structural elements unable to generate fixed assets (part of the service units, households, corporate consumers. The paper presents the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs for the model. This algorithm was developed by the authors and served as the basis for further development of the flowchart for subsequent implementation with use of software. The construction of such algorithm and its use for dynamic input-output models of industrial enterprises is actualized by international acceptance of the effectiveness of the use of input-output models for national and regional economic systems. This is what allows us to consider that the solutions discussed in the article are of interest to economists of various industrial enterprises.
Mescia, L.; Bia, P.; Caratelli, D.
2017-01-01
A novel two-dimensional (2-D) finite-difference timedomain algorithm for modeling ultrawideband pulse propagation in arbitrary dispersive soils is presented. The soil dispersion is modeled by general power law series representation, accounting for multiple higher order dispersive relaxation
Validation and comparison of dispersion models of RTARC DSS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duran, J.; Pospisil, M.
2004-01-01
RTARC DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) is a computer code developed at the VUJE Trnava, Inc. (Stubna, M. et al, 1993). The code calculations include atmospheric transport and diffusion, dose assessment, evaluation and displaying of the affected zones, evaluation of the early health effects, concentration and dose rate time dependence in the selected sites etc. The simulation of the protective measures (sheltering, iodine administration) is involved. The aim of this paper is to present the process of validation of the RTARC dispersion models. RTARC includes models for calculations of release for very short (Method Monte Carlo - MEMOC), short (Gaussian Straight-Line Model) and long distances (Puff Trajectory Model - PTM). Validation of the code RTARC was performed using the results of comparisons and experiments summarized in the Table 1.: 1. Experiments and comparisons in the process of validation of the system RTARC - experiments or comparison - distance - model. Wind tunnel experiments (Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Muenchen) - Area of NPP - Method Monte Carlo. INEL (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory) - short/medium - Gaussian model and multi tracer atmospheric experiment - distances - PTM. Model Validation Kit - short distances - Gaussian model. STEP II.b 'Realistic Case Studies' - long distances - PTM. ENSEMBLE comparison - long distances - PTM (orig.)
Vapor generation rate model for dispersed drop flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unal, C.; Tuzla, K.; Cokmez-Tuzla, A.F.; Chen, J.C.
1991-01-01
A comparison of predictions of existing nonequilibrium post-CHF heat transfer models with the recently obtained rod bundle data has been performed. The models used the experimental conditions and wall temperatures to predict the heat flux and vapor temperatures at the location of interest. No existing model was able to reasonably predict the vapor superheat and the wall heat flux simultaneously. Most of the models, except Chen-Sundaram-Ozkaynak, failed to predict the wall heat flux, while all of the models could not predict the vapor superheat data or trends. A recently developed two-region heat transfer model, the Webb-Chen two-region model, did not give a reasonable prediction of the vapor generation rate in the far field of the CHF point. A new correlation was formulated to predict the vapor generation rate in convective dispersed droplet flow in terms of thermal-hydraulic parameters and thermodynamic properties. A comparison of predictions of the two-region heat transfer model, with the use of a presently developed correlation, with all the existing post-CHF data, including single-tube and rod bundle, showed significant improvements in predicting the vapor superheat and tube wall heat flux trends. (orig.)
Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model IMS Model Suite and its Validation against Experimental Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartok, J.
2010-01-01
The dissertation presents IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model, which is a 'new generation' Slovak dispersion model of long-range transport, developed by MicroStep-MIS. It solves trajectory equation for a vast number of Lagrangian 'particles' and stochastic equation that simulates the effects of turbulence. Model contains simulation of radioactive decay (full decay chains of more than 300 nuclides), and dry and wet deposition. Model was integrated into IMS Model Suite, a system in which several models and modules can run and cooperate, e.g. LAM model WRF preparing fine resolution meteorological data for dispersion. The main theme of the work is validation of dispersion model against large scale international campaigns CAPTEX and ETEX, which are two of the largest tracer experiments. Validation addressed treatment of missing data, data interpolation into comparable temporal and spatial representation. The best model results were observed for ETEX I, standard results for CAPTEXes and worst results for ETEX II, known in modelling community for its meteorological conditions that can be hardly resolved by models. The IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model was identified as capable long range dispersion model for slowly- or nonreacting chemicals and radioactive matter. Influence of input data on simulation quality is discussed within the work. Additional modules were prepared according to praxis requirement: a) Recalculation of concentrations of radioactive pollutant into effective doses form inhalation, immersion in the plume and deposition. b) Dispersion of mineral dust was added and tested in desert locality, where wind and soil moisture were firstly analysed and forecast by WRF. The result was qualitatively verified in case study against satellite observations. (author)
Open Burn/Open Detonation Dispersion Model (OBODM) User's Guide. Volume I. User's Instructions
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Bjorklund, Jay
1998-01-01
...) of obsolete munitions and solid propellants. OBODM uses loud/plume rise, dispersion, and deposition algorithms taken from existing models for instantaneous and quasi-continuous sources to predict the downwind transport and dispersion...
2-D model for pollutant dispersion at the coastal outfall off Paradip
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Suryanarayana, A.; Babu, M.T.; Vethamony, P.; Gouveia, A.D.
Simulation of dispersion of the effluent discharge has been carried out using 2-D Model to verify the advection and diffusion of the pollutant patch of the proposed effluent disposal off Paradip, Orissa, India. The simulation of dispersion...
Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marek Antosiewicz
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of resource-saving technologies. We calibrate the model for the EU27 area using an IO matrix. We consider taxation introduced from 2021 and simulate its impact until 2050. We compare the taxes along their ability to induce reduction in material use and raise revenue. We also consider the effect of spending this revenue on reduction of labour taxation. We find that input and output taxation create contrasting incentives and have opposite effects on resource efficiency. The material input tax induces investment in efficiency-improving technology which, in the long term, results in GDP and employment by 15%–20% higher than in the case of a comparable output tax. We also find that using revenues to reduce taxes on labour has stronger beneficial effects for the input tax.
Accessing National Water Model Output for Research and Application: An R package
Johnson, M.; Coll, J.
2017-12-01
With the National Water Model becoming operational in August of 2016, the need for a open source way to translate a huge amount of data into actionable intelligence and innovative research is apparent. The first step in doing this is to provide a package for accessing, managing, and writing data in a way that is both interpretable, portable, and useful to the end user in both the R environment, and other applications. This can be as simple as subsetting the outputs and writing to a CSV, but can also include converting discharge output to more meaningful statistics and measurements, and methods to visualize data in ways that are meaningful to a wider audience. The NWM R package presented here aims to serve this need through a suite of functions fit for researchers, first responders, and average citizens. A vignette of how this package can be applied to real-time flood mapping will be demonstrated.
Modelling health and output at business cycle horizons for the USA.
Narayan, Paresh Kumar
2010-07-01
In this paper we employ a theoretical framework - a simple macro model augmented with health - that draws guidance from the Keynesian view of business cycles to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in health expenditure and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. The variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in health expenditures. We undertake a shock decomposition analysis for private health expenditures versus public health expenditures and interestingly find that while transitory shocks are more important for private sector expenditures, permanent shocks dominate public health expenditures. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sugiyama, Gayle [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pobanz, Brenda [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Vogt, Phil [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aluzzi, Fernando [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Homann, Steve [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2012-05-01
In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.
Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation
Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2015-01-01
In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirste, D.
2008-01-01
A geochemical model was used to predict the short-term and long-term behaviour of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), formation water, and reservoir mineralogy at a carbon sequestration site. Data requirements for the geochemical model included detailed mineral petrography; formation water chemistry; thermodynamic and kinetic data for mineral phases; and rock and reservoir physical characteristics. The model was used to determine the types of outputs expected for potential CO 2 storage sites and natural analogues. Reaction path modelling was conducted to determine the total reactivity or CO 2 storage capability of the rock by applying static equilibrium and kinetic simulations. Potential product phases were identified using the modelling technique, which also enabled the identification of the chemical evolution of the system. Results of the modelling study demonstrated that changes in porosity and permeability over time should be considered during the site selection process.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai
2006-01-01
A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...
A nonlinear model for frequency dispersion and DC intrinsic parameter extraction for GaN-based HEMT
Nguyen, Tung The-Lam; Kim, Sam-Dong
2017-11-01
We propose in this study a practical nonlinear model for the AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs) to extract DC intrinsic transconductance (gmDC), output conductance (gdsDC), and electron mobility from the intrinsic parameter set measured at high frequencies. An excellent agreement in I-V characteristics of the model with a fitting error of 0.11% enables us successfully extract the gmDC, gdsDC, and the total transconductance dispersion. For this model, we also present a reliable analysis scheme wherein the frequency dispersion effect due regional surface states in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs is taken into account under various bias conditions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mikkelsen, T.
1992-01-01
A number of Commission of the European Communities member states are presently coordinating their research and development of a ''Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support'' (RODOS) for emergency assistance in the event of nuclear accident. In addition to atmospheric dispersion, the system involves multiple other radiological disciplines. The ability to estimate a specific atmospheric dispersion scenarios in real-time becomes a first-priority task and is of uttermost importance for the subsequent success or failure of such a comprehensive decision support system to guide off-site emergency situations. No single dispersion model is at present able to cover all possible release-types and scales of dispersion. A hierarchy of atmospheric flow and dispersion models is presently being ranked for suitability to real-time calculate air and integrated-air concentrations. Starting at the short-range scale, models are discriminated with respect to principle, adequacy and flexibility, CPU-time constraints, experimental evaluation record, instantaneous or short-time release handling, deposition measures (wet and dry), input and output data flexibility and uncertainty-handling and model-interpretation. Additional features of particular importance are: Robustness in schemes for meteorological preprocessing of meteorological input data, and on-line backfitting and data-assimilation procedures. Models demonstrating practical and operational use, including real-time operational experience, have in this context the highest priority, as opposed to the more sophisticated and theoretical ''development-type'' models. Real-time methods founded on our present knowledge and data concerning flow and dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer, are of primary interest. (au) (18 refs.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sofia Costanzini
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This work originates from an epidemiological study aimed to assess the correlation between population exposure to pesticides used in agriculture and adverse health effects. In support of the population exposure evaluation two models implemented by the authors were applied: a GIS-based proximity model and the CAREA atmospheric dispersion model. In this work, the results of the two models are presented and compared. Despite the proximity analysis is widely used for these kinds of studies, it was investigated how meteorology could affect the exposure assessment. Both models were applied to pesticides emitted by 1519 agricultural fields and considering 2584 receptors distributed over an area of 8430 km2. CAREA output shows a considerable enhancement in the percentage of exposed receptors, from the 4% of the proximity model to the 54% of the CAREA model. Moreover, the spatial analysis of the results on a specific test site showed that the effects of meteorology considered by CAREA led to an anisotropic exposure distribution that differs considerably from the symmetric distribution resulting by the proximity model. In addition, the results of a field campaign for the definition and planning of ground measurement of concentration for the validation of CAREA are presented. The preliminary results showed how, during treatments, pesticide concentrations distant from the fields are significantly higher than background values.
Prediction model and treatment of high-output ileostomy in colorectal cancer surgery.
Fujino, Shiki; Miyoshi, Norikatsu; Ohue, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yuske; Yasui, Masayoshi; Sugimura, Keijiro; Akita, Hirohumi; Takahashi, Hidenori; Kobayashi, Shogo; Yano, Masahiko; Sakon, Masato
2017-09-01
The aim of the present study was to examine the risk factors of high-output ileostomy (HOI), which is associated with electrolyte abnormalities and/or stoma complications, and to create a prediction model. The medical records of 68 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery with ileostomy between 2011 and 2016 were retrospectively investigated. All the patients underwent surgical resection for colorectal cancer at the Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases (Osaka, Japan). A total of 7 patients with inadequate data on ileostomy output were excluded. Using a group of 50 patients who underwent surgery between 2011 and 2013, the risk of HOI was classified by a decision tree model using a partition platform. The HOI prediction model was validated in an additional group of 11 patients who underwent surgery between 2014 and 2016. Univariate analysis of clinical factors demonstrated that young age (P=0.003) and high white blood cell (WBC) count (Pmodel, three factors (gender, age and WBC on postoperative day 1) were generated for the prediction of HOI. The patients were classified into five groups, and HOI was observed in 0-88% of patients in each group. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.838. The model was validated by an external dataset in an independent patient group, for which the AUC was 0.792. In conclusion, HOI patients were classified and an HOI prediction model was developed that may help clinicians in postoperative care.
Transport coefficient computation based on input/output reduced order models
Hurst, Joshua L.
The guiding purpose of this thesis is to address the optimal material design problem when the material description is a molecular dynamics model. The end goal is to obtain a simplified and fast model that captures the property of interest such that it can be used in controller design and optimization. The approach is to examine model reduction analysis and methods to capture a specific property of interest, in this case viscosity, or more generally complex modulus or complex viscosity. This property and other transport coefficients are defined by a input/output relationship and this motivates model reduction techniques that are tailored to preserve input/output behavior. In particular Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) based methods are investigated. First simulation methods are identified that are amenable to systems theory analysis. For viscosity, these models are of the Gosling and Lees-Edwards type. They are high order nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) that employ Periodic Boundary Conditions. Properties can be calculated from the state trajectories of these ODEs. In this research local linear approximations are rigorously derived and special attention is given to potentials that are evaluated with Periodic Boundary Conditions (PBC). For the Gosling description LTI models are developed from state trajectories but are found to have limited success in capturing the system property, even though it is shown that full order LTI models can be well approximated by reduced order LTI models. For the Lees-Edwards SLLOD type model nonlinear ODEs will be approximated by a Linear Time Varying (LTV) model about some nominal trajectory and both balanced truncation and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) will be used to assess the plausibility of reduced order models to this system description. An immediate application of the derived LTV models is Quasilinearization or Waveform Relaxation. Quasilinearization is a Newton's method applied to the ODE operator
Dispersion model computations of urban air pollution in Espoo, Finland
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Valkonen, E.; Haerkoenen, J.; Kukkonen, J.; Rantakrans, E.; Jalkanen, L.
1997-12-31
This report presents the numerical results of air quality studies of the city of Espoo in southern Finland. This city is one of the four cities in the Helsinki metropolitan area, having a total population of 850 000. A thorough emission inventory was made of both mobile and stationary sources in the Helsinki metropolitan area. The atmospheric dispersion was evaluated using an urban dispersion modelling system, including a Gaussian multiple-source plume model and a meteorological pre-processing model. The hourly time series of CO, NO{sub 2} and SO{sub 2} concentrations were predicted, using the emissions and meteorological data for the year 1990. The predicted results show a clear decrease in the yearly mean concentrations from southeast to northwest. This is due in part to the denser traffic in the southern parts of Espoo, and in part to pollution from the neighbouring cities of Helsinki and Vantaa, located east of Espoo. The statistical concentration parameters found for Espoo were lower than the old national air quality guidelines (1984); however, some occurrences of above-threshold values were found for NO{sub 2} in terms of the new guidelines (1996). The contribution of traffic to the total concentrations varies spatially from 30 to 90 % for NO{sub 2} from 1 to 65 % for SO{sub 2} while for CO it is nearly 100 %. The concentrations database will be further utilised to analyse the influence of urban air pollution on the health of children attending selected day nurseries in Espoo. The results of this study can also be applied in traffic and city planning. In future work the results will also be compared with data from the urban measurement network of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. (orig.) 19 refs.
Two-dimensional modeling of x-ray output from switched foil implosions on Procyon
Bowers, R. L.; Nakafuji, G.; Greene, A. E.; McLenithan, K. D.; Peterson, D. L.; Roderick, N. F.
1996-09-01
A series of two-dimensional radiation magnetohydrodynamic calculations are presented of a Z-pinch implosion using a plasma flow switch. Results from a recent experiment using the high explosive driven generator Procyon, which delivered 16.5 MA to a plasma flow switch and switched about 15 MA into a static load, are used to study the implosion of a 29 mg load foil [J. H. Goforth et al., ``Review of the Procyon Explosive Pulsed Power System,'' in Ninth IEEE Pulsed Power Conference, June 1993, Albuquerque, edited by K. R. Prestwich and W. L. Baker (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, NJ, 1993), p. 36]. The interaction of the switch with the load plasma and the effects of background plasma on the total radiation output is examined. Models which assume ideal switching are also included. Also included are the effects of perturbations in the load plasma which may be associated with initial vaporization of the load foil. If the background plasma density in the switch region and in the load region does not affect the dynamics, the pinch is predicted to produce a total radiation output of about 4 MJ. Including perturbations of the load plasma associated with switching and assuming a background plasma density after switching in excess of 10-7 g/cm3 results in a total output from the pinch of about 0.6 MJ.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vidal-Codina, F.; Nguyen, N.C.; Giles, M.B.; Peraire, J.
2015-01-01
We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method
Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kutu Adebayo Augustine
2017-12-01
Full Text Available This paper examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001 Markov-Switching Model (MSM and monthly data from 1994.01–2013.12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries’ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It can also be observed that the area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It has also been established that there is a high probability of moving from state one (recession to state two (expansion and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy, especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output.
Modeling of dilute and dense dispersed fluid-particle flow
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laux, Harald
1998-08-01
A general two-fluid model is derived and applied in CFD computations to various test cases of important industrial multiphase flows. It is general in the sense of its applicability to dilute and dense dispersed fluid-particle flows. The model is limited to isothermal flow without mass transfer and only one particle phase is described. The instantaneous fluid phase equations, including the phase interaction terms, are derived from a volume averaging technique, and the instantaneous particle phase equations are derived from the kinetic theory of granular material. Whereas the averaging procedure, the treatment of the interaction terms, and the kinetic theory approach have been reported in literature prior to this work the combination of the approaches is new. The resulting equations are derived without ambiguity in the interpretation of the particle phase pressure (equation-of-state of particle phase). The basic modeling for the particle phase is improved in two steps. Because in the basic modeling only stresses due to kinetic and collisional interactions are included, a simple model for an effective viscosity is developed in order to allow also frictional stresses within the particle phase. Moreover, turbulent stresses and turbulent dispersion of particles play often an important role for the transport processes. Therefore in a second step, a two-equation turbulence model for both fluid and particle phase turbulence is derived by applying the phasic average to the instantaneous equations. The resulting k-{epsilon}-k{sup d}-{epsilon}{sup d} model is new. Mathematical closure is attempted such that the resulting set of equations is valid for both dilute arid dense flows. During the development of the closure relations a clear distinction is made between granular or ''viscous'' microscale fluctuations and turbulent macro scale fluctuations (true particle turbulence) within the particle phase. The set of governing equations is discretized by using a
Modeling of dilute and dense dispersed fluid-particle flow
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laux, Harald
1998-08-01
A general two-fluid model is derived and applied in CFD computations to various test cases of important industrial multiphase flows. It is general in the sense of its applicability to dilute and dense dispersed fluid-particle flows. The model is limited to isothermal flow without mass transfer and only one particle phase is described. The instantaneous fluid phase equations, including the phase interaction terms, are derived from a volume averaging technique, and the instantaneous particle phase equations are derived from the kinetic theory of granular material. Whereas the averaging procedure, the treatment of the interaction terms, and the kinetic theory approach have been reported in literature prior to this work the combination of the approaches is new. The resulting equations are derived without ambiguity in the interpretation of the particle phase pressure (equation-of-state of particle phase). The basic modeling for the particle phase is improved in two steps. Because in the basic modeling only stresses due to kinetic and collisional interactions are included, a simple model for an effective viscosity is developed in order to allow also frictional stresses within the particle phase. Moreover, turbulent stresses and turbulent dispersion of particles play often an important role for the transport processes. Therefore in a second step, a two-equation turbulence model for both fluid and particle phase turbulence is derived by applying the phasic average to the instantaneous equations. The resulting k-{epsilon}-k{sup d}-{epsilon}{sup d} model is new. Mathematical closure is attempted such that the resulting set of equations is valid for both dilute arid dense flows. During the development of the closure relations a clear distinction is made between granular or ''viscous'' microscale fluctuations and turbulent macro scale fluctuations (true particle turbulence) within the particle phase. The set of governing equations is discretized by using a finite volume method
MESOILT2, a Lagrangian trajectory climatological dispersion model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Burk, K.W.
1991-03-01
The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site. An independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP) directs the project, which is conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). The TSP directed PNL to demonstrate that its recommended approach for dose reconstruction is technically feasible and practical. This demonstration was Phase 1 of the project. This report is specifically concerned with the approach that PNL recommends for dealing with the atmospheric pathway. The TSP established a model domain for the atmospheric pathway for Phase 1 that includes 10 counties in Washington and Oregon and covers several thousand square miles. It is unrealistic to assume that atmospheric models which estimate transport and diffusion based on the meteorological conditions near the point of release of material at the time of release are adequate for a region this large. As a result, PNL recommended use of a Lagrangian trajectory, puff dispersion model for the Phase I study. This report describes the MESOILT2 computer code and the atmospheric transport, diffusion, deposition, and depletion models used in Phase I. The contents of the report include a technical description of the models, a user's guide for the codes, and descriptions of the individual code elements. 53 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs
Dispersion model for airborne particulates inside a building
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, W.C.; Stoddard, D.H.
1985-01-01
An empirical model has been developed for the spread of airborne radioactive particles after they are released inside a building. The model has been useful in performing safety analyses of actinide materials facilities at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). These facilities employ the multiple-air-zone concept; that is, ventilation air flows from rooms or areas of least radioactive material hazard, through zones of increasing hazard, to a treatment system. A composite of the data for dispersion of airborne activity during 12 actual case incidents at SRP forms the basis for this model. These incidents occurred during approximately 90 plant-years of experience at SRP with the chemical and metallurgical processing of purified neptunium and plutonium after their recovery from irradiated uranium. The model gives ratios of the airborne activity concentrations in rooms and corridors near the site of the release. The multiple-air-zone concept has been applied to many designs of nuclear facilities as a safety feature to limit the spread of airborne activity from a release. The model illustrates the limitations of this concept: it predicts an apparently anomalous behavior of airborne particulates; namely, a small migration against the flow of the ventilation air
Turbulent diffusion modelling for windflow and dispersion analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartzis, J.G.
1988-01-01
The need for simple but reliable models for turbulent diffusion for windflow and atmospheric dispersion analysis is a necessity today if one takes into consideration the relatively high demand in computer time and costs for such an analysis, arising mainly from the often large solution domains needed, the terrain complexity and the transient nature of the phenomena. In the accident consequence assessment often there is a need for a relatively large number of cases to be analysed increasing further the computer time and costs. Within the framework of searching for relatively simple and universal eddy viscosity/diffusivity models, a new three dimensional non isotropic model is proposed applicable to any domain complexity and any atmospheric stability conditions. The model utilizes the transport equation for turbulent kinetic energy but introduces a new approach in effective length scale estimation based on the flow global characteristics and local atmospheric stability. The model is discussed in detail and predictions are given for flow field and boundary layer thickness. The results are compared with experimental data with satisfactory results
Reactive Power Pricing Model Considering the Randomness of Wind Power Output
Dai, Zhong; Wu, Zhou
2018-01-01
With the increase of wind power capacity integrated into grid, the influence of the randomness of wind power output on the reactive power distribution of grid is gradually highlighted. Meanwhile, the power market reform puts forward higher requirements for reasonable pricing of reactive power service. Based on it, the article combined the optimal power flow model considering wind power randomness with integrated cost allocation method to price reactive power. Meanwhile, considering the advantages and disadvantages of the present cost allocation method and marginal cost pricing, an integrated cost allocation method based on optimal power flow tracing is proposed. The model realized the optimal power flow distribution of reactive power with the minimal integrated cost and wind power integration, under the premise of guaranteeing the balance of reactive power pricing. Finally, through the analysis of multi-scenario calculation examples and the stochastic simulation of wind power outputs, the article compared the results of the model pricing and the marginal cost pricing, which proved that the model is accurate and effective.
Detection of no-model input-output pairs in closed-loop systems.
Potts, Alain Segundo; Alvarado, Christiam Segundo Morales; Garcia, Claudio
2017-11-01
The detection of no-model input-output (IO) pairs is important because it can speed up the multivariable system identification process, since all the pairs with null transfer functions are previously discarded and it can also improve the identified model quality, thus improving the performance of model based controllers. In the available literature, the methods focus just on the open-loop case, since in this case there is not the effect of the controller forcing the main diagonal in the transfer matrix to one and all the other terms to zero. In this paper, a modification of a previous method able to detect no-model IO pairs in open-loop systems is presented, but adapted to perform this duty in closed-loop systems. Tests are performed by using the traditional methods and the proposed one to show its effectiveness. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
radionuclides modelling dispersion of in the atmosphere for continuous discharges and accidental
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Teyeb, Malika
2011-01-01
The study of the dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere is the subject of a physical and numerical modeling of the phenomenon of dispersion. This work aims to study the atmospheric dispersion of accidental releases and continuous, from the possible establishment of a nuclear pressurized water reactor in the potential in Bizerte and Skhira.
A CFD model for pollutant dispersion in rivers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Modenesi K.
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Studies have shown that humankind will experience a water shortage in the coming decades. It is therefore paramount to develop new techniques and models with a view to minimizing the impact of pollution. It is important to predict the environmental impact of new emissions in rivers, especially during periods of drought. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD has proved to be an invaluable tool to develop models able to analyze in detail particle dispersion in rivers. However, since these models generate grids with thousands (even millions of points to evaluate velocities and concentrations, they still require powerful machines. In this context, this work contributes by presenting a new three-dimensional model based on CFD techniques specifically developed to be fast, providing a significant improvement in performance. It is able to generate predictions in a couple of hours for a one-thousand-meter long section of river using Pentium IV computers. Commercial CFD packages would require weeks to solve the same problem. Another innovation inb this work is that a half channel with a constant elliptical cross section represents the river, so the Navier Stokes equations were derived for the elliptical system. Experimental data were obtained from REPLAN (PETROBRAS refining unit on the Atibaia River in São Paulo, Brazil. The results show good agreement with experimental data.
Skull's acoustic attenuation and dispersion modeling on photoacoustic signal
Mohammadi, Leila; Behnam, Hamid; Tavakkoli, Jahan; Nasiriavanaki, Mohammadreza
2018-02-01
Despite the promising results of the recent novel transcranial photoacoustic (PA) brain imaging technology, it has been demonstrated that the presence of the skull severely affects the performance of this imaging modality. We theoretically investigate the effects of acoustic heterogeneity induced by skull on the PA signals generated from single particles, with firstly developing a mathematical model for this phenomenon and then explore experimental validation of the results. The model takes into account the frequency dependent attenuation and dispersion effects occur with wave reflection, refraction and mode conversion at the skull surfaces. Numerical simulations based on the developed model are performed for calculating the propagation of photoacoustic waves through the skull. The results show a strong agreement between simulation and ex-vivo study. The findings are as follow: The thickness of the skull is the most PA signal deteriorating factor that affects both its amplitude (attenuation) and phase (distortion). Also we demonstrated that, when the depth of target region is low and it is comparable to the skull thickness, however, the skull-induced distortion becomes increasingly severe and the reconstructed image would be strongly distorted without correcting these effects. It is anticipated that an accurate quantification and modeling of the skull transmission effects would ultimately allow for aberration correction in transcranial PA brain imaging.
Toward a more robust variance-based global sensitivity analysis of model outputs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tong, C
2007-10-15
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) measures the variation of a model output as a function of the variations of the model inputs given their ranges. In this paper we consider variance-based GSA methods that do not rely on certain assumptions about the model structure such as linearity or monotonicity. These variance-based methods decompose the output variance into terms of increasing dimensionality called 'sensitivity indices', first introduced by Sobol' [25]. Sobol' developed a method of estimating these sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulations. McKay [13] proposed an efficient method using replicated Latin hypercube sampling to compute the 'correlation ratios' or 'main effects', which have been shown to be equivalent to Sobol's first-order sensitivity indices. Practical issues with using these variance estimators are how to choose adequate sample sizes and how to assess the accuracy of the results. This paper proposes a modified McKay main effect method featuring an adaptive procedure for accuracy assessment and improvement. We also extend our adaptive technique to the computation of second-order sensitivity indices. Details of the proposed adaptive procedure as wells as numerical results are included in this paper.
Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs
Wilby, Robert L.
2013-04-01
Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2002-01-01
A peer review of the air quality dispersion modeling analysis for the proposed gas-fired plant at Duke Point in the vicinity of Nanaimo, British Columbia was required, and SENES Consultants Limited (SENES) was commissioned to perform it. British Columbia Hydro had requested that Levelton Engineering Ltd. prepare an air quality impact assessment, and it was submitted to be included in Vancouver Island Generation Project (VIGP) permit application. This permit application was for the Joint Panel Review of the Georgia Strait Crossing Pipeline (GSX) Project and the British Columbia Environmental Assessment Office. The CALMET/CALPUFF Modelling System had been used by Levelton to conduct the air quality dispersion modelling analysis. Copies of the input and output files that had been used for the conduct of the modelling analysis were provided to SENES. The ability for SENES to reproduce the modelling results that had been published in the GSX application represented the first step in the peer review. This was accomplished by running the files received from Levelton into the CALMET/CALPUFF models. A detailed review of the methodology selected by Levelton during the conduct of the dispersion modelling analysis was then initiated by SENES. Some deficiencies were identified by SENES, despite concurrence with the overall conceptual approach adopted by Levelton. The deficiencies concerned meteorological data; startup, partial load and upset conditions; pollutant emissions; health risk assessment; cumulative impact on ambient particulate matter 10 concentrations; and collateral environmental impacts. refs., 2 tabs., 21 figs
Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions
Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn
2015-02-01
In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean-standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.
NARAC Dispersion Model Product Integration With RadResponder
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aluzzi, Fernando [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2015-09-30
Work on enhanced cooperation and interoperability of Nuclear Incident Response Teams (NIRT) is a joint effort between DHS/FEMA, DOE/NNSA and EPA. One such effort was the integration between the RadResponder Network, a resource sponsored by FEMA for the management of radiological data during an emergency, and the National Atmospheric Advisory Center (NARAC), a DOE/NNSA modeling resource whose predictions are used to aid radiological emergency preparedness and response. Working together under a FEMA-sponsored project these two radiological response assets developed a capability to read and display plume model prediction results from the NARAC computer system in the RadResponder software tool. As a result of this effort, RadResponder users have been provided with NARAC modeling predictions of contamination areas, radiological dose levels, and protective action areas (e.g., areas warranting worker protection or sheltering/evacuation) to help guide protective action decisions and field monitoring surveys, and gain key situation awareness following a radiological/nuclear accident or incident (e.g., nuclear power plant accident, radiological dispersal device incident, or improvised nuclear detonation incident). This document describes the details of this integration effort.
Plume dispersion in four pine thinning scenarios: development of a simple pheromone dispersion model
Holly Peterson; Harold Thistle; Brian Lamb; Gene Allwine; Steve Edburg; Brian Strom
2010-01-01
A unique field campaign was conducted in 2004 to examine how changes in stand density may affect dispersion of insect pheromones in forest canopies. Over a l4-day period, 126 tracer tests were performed, and conditions ranged from an unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) canopy through a series of thinning scenarios with basal areas of32.l, 23.0, and 16.1 m2ha-l.ln...
Two-patch population models with adaptive dispersal: the effects of varying dispersal speeds
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Cressman, R.; Křivan, Vlastimil
2013-01-01
Roč. 67, č. 2 (2013), s. 329-358 ISSN 0303-6812 Grant - others:The University of Tennessee(US) EF-0832858; National Science Foundation(US) DMS 0931642 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : competition * dispersal * evolution Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.388, year: 2013 http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00285-012-0548-3.pdf
A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.
Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu
2016-02-02
Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.
International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.
Jung, Jeesang; Santos, Joost R; Haimes, Yacov Y
2009-01-01
The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).
Multiregional input-output model for the evaluation of Spanish water flows.
Cazcarro, Ignacio; Duarte, Rosa; Sánchez Chóliz, Julio
2013-01-01
We construct a multiregional input-output model for Spain, in order to evaluate the pressures on the water resources, virtual water flows, and water footprints of the regions, and the water impact of trade relationships within Spain and abroad. The study is framed with those interregional input-output models constructed to study water flows and impacts of regions in China, Australia, Mexico, or the UK. To build our database, we reconcile regional IO tables, national and regional accountancy of Spain, trade and water data. Results show an important imbalance between origin of water resources and final destination, with significant water pressures in the South, Mediterranean, and some central regions. The most populated and dynamic regions of Madrid and Barcelona are important drivers of water consumption in Spain. Main virtual water exporters are the South and Central agrarian regions: Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon, Aragon, and Extremadura, while the main virtual water importers are the industrialized regions of Madrid, Basque country, and the Mediterranean coast. The paper shows the different location of direct and indirect consumers of water in Spain and how the economic trade and consumption pattern of certain areas has significant impacts on the availability of water resources in other different and often drier regions.
Global atmospheric dispersion modelling after the Fukushima accident
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Suh, K.S.; Youm, M.K.; Lee, B.G.; Min, B.I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (Korea, Republic of); Raul, P. [Universidad de Sevilla (Spain)
2014-07-01
A large amount of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere due to the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. The radioactive materials released into the atmosphere were mostly transported to the Pacific Ocean, but some of them were fallen on the surface due to dry and wet depositions in the northwest area from the Fukushima nuclear site. Therefore, northwest part of the nuclear site was seriously contaminated and it was designated with the restricted zone within a radius of 20 ∼ 30 km around the Fukushima nuclear site. In the early phase of the accident from 11 March to 30 March, the radioactive materials were dispersed to an area of the inland and offshore of the nuclear site by the variations of the wind. After the Fukushima accident, the radionuclides were detected through the air monitoring in the many places over the world. The radioactive plume was transported to the east part off the site by the westerly jet stream. It had detected in the North America during March 17-21, in European countries during March 23-24, and in Asia during from March 24 to April 6, 2011. The radioactive materials were overall detected across the northern hemisphere passed by 15 ∼ 20 days after the accident. Three dimensional numerical model was applied to evaluate the dispersion characteristics of the radionuclides released into the air. Simulated results were compared with measurements in many places over the world. Comparative results had good agreements in some places, but they had a little differences in some locations. The difference between the calculations and measurements are due to the meteorological data and relatively coarse resolutions in the model. Some radioactive materials were measured in Philippines, Taiwan, Hon Kong and South Korea during from March 23-28. It inferred that it was directly transported from the Fukushima by the northeastern monsoon winds. This event was well represented in the numerical model. Generally, the simulations had a good
Radiation environmental real-time monitoring and dispersion modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kovacik, A.; Bartokova, I.; Omelka, J.; Melicherova, T.
2014-01-01
The system of real-time radiation monitoring provided by MicroStep-MIS is a turn-key solution for measurement, acquisition, processing, reporting, archiving and displaying of various radiation data. At the level of measurements, the monitoring stations can be equipped with various devices from radiation probes, measuring the actual ambient gamma dose rate, to fully automated aerosol monitors, returning analysis results of natural and manmade radionuclides concentrations in the air. Using data gathered by our radiation probes RPSG-05 integrated into monitoring network of Crisis Management of the Slovak Republic and into monitoring network of Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, we demonstrate its reliability and long-term stability of measurements. Data from RPSG-05 probes and GammaTracer probes, both of these types are used in the SHI network, are compared. The sensitivity of RPSG-05 is documented on data where changes of dose rate are caused by precipitation. Qualities of RPSG-05 probe are illustrated also on example of its use in radiation monitoring network in the United Arab Emirates. A more detailed information about radioactivity of the atmosphere can be obtained by using spectrometric detectors (e.g. scintillation detectors) which, besides gamma dose rate values, offer also a possibility to identify different radionuclides. However, this possibility is limited by technical parameters of detector like energetic resolution and detection efficiency in given geometry of measurement. A clearer information with less doubts can be obtained from aerosol monitors with a built-in silicon detector of alpha and beta particles and with an electrically cooled HPGe detector dedicated for gamma-ray spectrometry, which is performed during the sampling. Data from a complex radiation monitoring network can be used, together with meteorological data, in radiation dispersion model by MicroStep-MIS. This model serves for simulation of atmospheric propagation of radionuclides
Advances and Problems in Mathematical Modelling of Dispersion of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Most expressions for dispersion of pollutants have failed to give accurate predictions in both channel and natural stream flows. This paper outlines the basic concepts on which the fundamental dispersion equations have been derived. Some of the advances on these equations are examined and their deficiencies pointed ...
A model for evaluating dispersed outdoor recreation use estimation
Stanley J. Zarnoch; Donald B. K. English; Susan M. Kocis
2004-01-01
An outdoor recreation use simulator (ORUS) has been developed to simulate dispersed recreation survey data similar to that collected by the National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) Project's survey of the national forests of the U.S.A. Statistical distributions are used to represent the various behaviors of recreationists during their visit to a dispersed area. The...
Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. B. Collier
2004-12-01
Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift.
A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE.
Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms
Modelling substorm chorus events in terms of dispersive azimuthal drift
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. B. Collier
2004-12-01
Full Text Available The Substorm Chorus Event (SCE is a radio phenomenon observed on the ground after the onset of the substorm expansion phase. It consists of a band of VLF chorus with rising upper and lower cutoff frequencies. These emissions are thought to result from Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance between whistler mode waves and energetic electrons which drift into a ground station's field of view from an injection site around midnight. The increasing frequency of the emission envelope has been attributed to the combined effects of energy dispersion due to gradient and curvature drifts, and the modification of resonance conditions and variation of the half-gyrofrequency cutoff resulting from the radial component of the ExB drift. A model is presented which accounts for the observed features of the SCE in terms of the growth rate of whistler mode waves due to anisotropy in the electron distribution. This model provides an explanation for the increasing frequency of the SCE lower cutoff, as well as reproducing the general frequency-time signature of the event. In addition, the results place some restrictions on the injected particle source distribution which might lead to a SCE. Key words. Space plasma physics (Wave-particle interaction – Magnetospheric physics (Plasma waves and instabilities; Storms and substorms
A regulator's perspective on the use of atmospheric dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Williams, C.R.
1992-01-01
On 1 April 1991 a new regime for industrial pollution control was introduced in England and Wales: Integrated Pollution Regulation (IPR). For those industrial processes which involve releases of pollutants into the atmosphere, the relevant primary legislation includes: the Environmental Protection Act 1990, which established a system of Integrated Pollution Control for those industries which have the greatest potential to cause pollution, and the Radioactive Substances Act 1960, which is concerned with the regulation of radioactive releases. There is a requirement for the operator of a process to make an application to HMIP for authorization to operate the process and dispose of waste arisings, and an environmental impact assessment must form part of that application. HMIP does not prescribe the type of assessment techniques that the applicant should use. But the Inspectorate will audit the applicant's assessment, and also carry out its own calculations if appropriate. The assessment standards used by HMIP are being published in the form of ''Chief Inspector's Guidance to Inspectors'', which can be referred to by applicants. HMIP makes use of both short-range and longer-range atmospheric dispersion models to fulfill its regulatory duties. Within the former category, the Inspectorate is one of the UK organisations which is sponsoring the development of the UK-ADMS model. (AB)
Stress modeling in colloidal dispersions undergoing non-viscometric flows
Dolata, Benjamin; Zia, Roseanna
2017-11-01
We present a theoretical study of the stress tensor for a colloidal dispersion undergoing non-viscometric flow. In such flows, the non-homogeneous suspension stress depends on not only the local average total stresslet-the sum of symmetric first moments of both the hydrodynamic traction and the interparticle force-but also on the average quadrupole, octupole, and higher-order moments. To compute the average moments, we formulate a six dimensional Smoluchowski equation governing the microstructural evolution of a suspension in an arbitrary fluid velocity field. Under the conditions of rheologically slow flow, where the Brownian relaxation of the particles is much faster than the spatiotemporal evolution of the flow, the Smoluchowski equation permits asymptotic solution, revealing a suspension stress that follows a second-order fluid constitutive model. We obtain a reciprocal theorem and utilize it to show that all constitutive parameters of the second-order fluid model may be obtained from two simpler linear-response problems: a suspension undergoing simple shear and a suspension undergoing isotropic expansion. The consequences of relaxing the assumption of rheologically slow flow, including the appearance of memory and microcontinuum behaviors, are discussed.
Ahmad, H.; Karim, M. R.; Rahman, B. M. A.
2018-03-01
A rigorous numerical investigation has been carried out through dispersion engineering of chalcogenide rib waveguide for near-infrared to mid-infrared ultraflat broadband supercontinuum generation in all-normal group-velocity dispersion regime. We propose a novel design of a 1-cm-long air-clad rib waveguide which is made from {Ge}_{11.5} {As}_{24} {Se}_{64.5} chalcogenide glass as the core with either silica or {Ge}_{11.5} {As}_{24} {S}_{64.5} chalcogenide glass as a lower cladding separately. A broadband ultraflat supercontinuum spanning from 1300 to 1900 nm could be generated when pumped at 1.55 μ {m} with a low input peak power of 100 W. Shifting the pump to 2 μ {m}, the supercontinuum spectra extended in the mid-infrared region up to 3400 nm with a moderate-input peak power of 500 W. To achieve further extension in mid-infrared, we excite our optimized rib waveguide in both the anomalous and all-normal dispersion pumping regions at 3.1 μ {m} with a largest input peak power of 3 kW. In the case of anomalous dispersion region pumping, numerical analysis shows that supercontinuum spectrum can be extended in the mid-infrared up to 10 μ {m}, although this contains high spectral amplitude fluctuations over the entire bandwidth which limits the supercontinuum sources in the field of high precision measurement applications. On the other hand, by optimizing a rib waveguide geometry for pumping in all-normal dispersion region, we are able to generate a smooth and flat-top coherent supercontinuum spectrum with a moderate bandwidth spanning the wavelength range 2-5.5 μ {m} with less than 5 dB spectral fluctuation over the entire output bandwidth. Our proposed design is highly suitable for making on-chip SC light sources for a variety of applications such as biomedical imaging, and environmental and industrial sensing in the mid-infrared region.
Wavelet transform-vector quantization compression of supercomputer ocean model simulation output
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bradley, J N; Brislawn, C M
1992-11-12
We describe a new procedure for efficient compression of digital information for storage and transmission purposes. The algorithm involves a discrete wavelet transform subband decomposition of the data set, followed by vector quantization of the wavelet transform coefficients using application-specific vector quantizers. The new vector quantizer design procedure optimizes the assignment of both memory resources and vector dimensions to the transform subbands by minimizing an exponential rate-distortion functional subject to constraints on both overall bit-rate and encoder complexity. The wavelet-vector quantization method, which originates in digital image compression. is applicable to the compression of other multidimensional data sets possessing some degree of smoothness. In this paper we discuss the use of this technique for compressing the output of supercomputer simulations of global climate models. The data presented here comes from Semtner-Chervin global ocean models run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and at the Los Alamos Advanced Computing Laboratory.
Revisiting the advection-dispersion model - Testing an alternative
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neretnieks, I.
2001-01-01
Some of the basic assumptions of the Advection-Dispersion model, AD-model, are revisited. That model assumes a continuous mixing along the flowpath similar to Fickian diffusion. This implies that there is a constant dispersion length irrespective of observation distance. This is contrary to most field observations. The properties of an alternative model based on the assumption that individual water packages can retain their identity over long distances are investigated. The latter model is called the Multi-Channel model, MChM. Inherent in the latter model is that if the waters in the different pathways are collected and mixed, the 'dispersion length' is proportional to observation distance. Using diffusion theory it is investigated over which distances or contact times, adjacent water packages will keep their identity. It is found that for a contact time of 10 hours, two streams, each wider than 6 mm, that flow side by side, will not have lost their identity. For 1000 hours contact time the minimum width is 6 cm. The MChM and AD-models were found to have very similar Residence Time Distributions, RTD, for Peclet numbers larger than 3. A generalised relation between flowrate and residence time is developed, including the so-called cubic law and constant aperture assumptions. Using the generalised relation, surprisingly it is found that for a system that has the same average flow volume and average flowrate the form of the RTD curves are the same irrespective of the form of the relation. Both models are also compared for a system where there is strong interaction of the solute with the rock matrix. In this case it is assumed that the solute can diffuse into and out of the fracture walls and also to sorb on the micro-fractures of the matrix. The so-called Flow Wetted Surface, FWS, between the flowing water in the fracture and the rock is a key entity in such systems. It is found that the AD-model predicts much later arrivals and lower concentrations than does the MCh-model
Kalyuzhnyi, S.V.; Fedorovich, V.V.; Lens, P.N.L.
2006-01-01
A new approach to model upflow anaerobic sludge bed (UASB)-reactors, referred to as a one-dimensional dispersed plug flow model, was developed. This model focusses on the granular sludge dynamics along the reactor height, based on the balance between dispersion, sedimentation and convection using
ElMallah, Mai K; Pagliardini, Silvia; Turner, Sara M; Cerreta, Anthony J; Falk, Darin J; Byrne, Barry J; Greer, John J; Fuller, David D
2015-09-01
Pompe disease results from a mutation in the acid α-glucosidase gene leading to lysosomal glycogen accumulation. Respiratory insufficiency is common, and the current U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved treatment, enzyme replacement, has limited effectiveness. Ampakines are drugs that enhance α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid receptor responses and can increase respiratory motor drive. Recent work indicates that respiratory motor drive can be blunted in Pompe disease, and thus pharmacologic stimulation of breathing may be beneficial. Using a murine Pompe model with the most severe clinical genotype (the Gaa(-/-) mouse), our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that ampakines can stimulate respiratory motor output and increase ventilation. Our second objective was to confirm that neuropathology was present in Pompe mouse medullary respiratory control neurons. The impact of ampakine CX717 on breathing was determined via phrenic and hypoglossal nerve recordings in anesthetized mice and whole-body plethysmography in unanesthetized mice. The medulla was examined using standard histological methods coupled with immunochemical markers of respiratory control neurons. Ampakine CX717 robustly increased phrenic and hypoglossal inspiratory bursting and reduced respiratory cycle variability in anesthetized Pompe mice, and it increased inspiratory tidal volume in unanesthetized Pompe mice. CX717 did not significantly alter these variables in wild-type mice. Medullary respiratory neurons showed extensive histopathology in Pompe mice. Ampakines stimulate respiratory neuromotor output and ventilation in Pompe mice, and therefore they have potential as an adjunctive therapy in Pompe disease.
SPRAYTRAN 1.0 User’s Guide: A GIS-Based Atmospheric Spray Droplet Dispersion Modeling System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Allwine, K Jerry; Rutz, Frederick C.; Droppo, James G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Bird, S. L.; Thistle, Harold W.
2006-09-20
SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) is a comprehensive dispersion modeling system that is used to simulate the offsite drift of pesticides from spray applications. SPRAYTRAN functions as a console application within Environmental System Research Institute’s ArcMap Geographic Information System (Version 9.x) and integrates the widely-used, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved CALifornia PUFF (CALPUFF) dispersion model and model components to simulate longer-range transport and diffusion in variable terrain and spatially/temporally varying meteorological (e.g., wind) fields. Area sources, which are used to define spray blocks in SPRAYTRAN, are initialized using output files generated from a separate aerial-spray-application model called AGDISP (AGricultural DISPersal). The AGDISP model is used for estimating the amount of pesticide deposited to the spray block based on spraying characteristics (e.g., pesticide type, spray nozzles, and aircraft type) and then simulating the near-field (less than 300-m) drift from a single pesticide application. The fraction of pesticide remaining airborne from the AGDISP near-field simulation is then used by SPRAYTRAN for simulating longer-range (greater than 300 m) drift and deposition of the pesticide.
Atmospheric mercury dispersion modelling from two nearest hypothetical point sources
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Al Razi, Khandakar Md Habib; Hiroshi, Moritomi; Shinji, Kambara [Environmental and Renewable Energy System (ERES), Graduate School of Engineering, Gifu University, Yanagido, Gifu City, 501-1193 (Japan)
2012-07-01
The Japan coastal areas are still environmentally friendly, though there are multiple air emission sources originating as a consequence of several developmental activities such as automobile industries, operation of thermal power plants, and mobile-source pollution. Mercury is known to be a potential air pollutant in the region apart from SOX, NOX, CO and Ozone. Mercury contamination in water bodies and other ecosystems due to deposition of atmospheric mercury is considered a serious environmental concern. Identification of sources contributing to the high atmospheric mercury levels will be useful for formulating pollution control and mitigation strategies in the region. In Japan, mercury and its compounds were categorized as hazardous air pollutants in 1996 and are on the list of 'Substances Requiring Priority Action' published by the Central Environmental Council of Japan. The Air Quality Management Division of the Environmental Bureau, Ministry of the Environment, Japan, selected the current annual mean environmental air quality standard for mercury and its compounds of 0.04 ?g/m3. Long-term exposure to mercury and its compounds can have a carcinogenic effect, inducing eg, Minamata disease. This study evaluates the impact of mercury emissions on air quality in the coastal area of Japan. Average yearly emission of mercury from an elevated point source in this area with background concentration and one-year meteorological data were used to predict the ground level concentration of mercury. To estimate the concentration of mercury and its compounds in air of the local area, two different simulation models have been used. The first is the National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk Assessment (AIST-ADMER) that estimates regional atmospheric concentration and distribution. The second is the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) that estimates the atmospheric
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...
Brixey, Laurie A; Heist, David K; Richmond-Bryant, Jennifer; Bowker, George E; Perry, Steven G; Wiener, Russell W
2009-12-01
This article is the second in a two-paper series presenting results from wind tunnel and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of flow and dispersion in an idealized model urban neighborhood. Pollutant dispersion results are presented and discussed for a model neighborhood that was characterized by regular city blocks of three-story row houses with a single 12-story tower located at the downwind edge of one of these blocks. The tower had three significant effects on pollutant dispersion in the surrounding street canyons: drawing the plume laterally towards the tower, greatly enhancing the vertical dispersion of the plume in the wake of the tower, and significantly decreasing the residence time of pollutants in the wake of the tower. In the wind tunnel, tracer gas released in the avenue lee of the tower, but several blocks away laterally, was pulled towards the tower and lifted in the wake of the tower. The same lateral movement of the pollutant was seen in the next avenue, which was approximately 2.5 tower heights downwind of the tower. The tower also served to ventilate the street canyon directly in its wake more rapidly than the surrounding areas. This was evidenced by CFD simulations of concentration decay where the residence time of pollutants lee of the 12-story tower was found to be less than half the residence time behind a neighboring three-story building. This same phenomenon of rapid vertical dispersion lee of a tower among an array of smaller buildings was also demonstrated in a separate set of wind tunnel experiments using an array of cubical blocks. A similar decrease in the residence time was observed when the height of one block was increased.
Measuring and modeling the magnetic settling of superparamagnetic nanoparticle dispersions.
Prigiobbe, Valentina; Ko, Saebom; Huh, Chun; Bryant, Steven L
2015-06-01
In this paper, we present settling experiments and mathematical modeling to study the magnetic separation of superparamagnetic iron-oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) from a brine. The experiments were performed using SPIONs suspensions of concentration between 3 and 202g/L dispersed in water and separated from the liquid under the effect of a permanent magnet. A 1D model was developed in the framework of the sedimentation theory with a conservation law for SPIONs and a mass flux function based on the Newton's law for motion in a magnetic field. The model describes both the hindering effect of suspension concentration (n) during settling due to particle collisions and the increase in settling rate due to the attraction of the SPIONs towards the magnet. The flux function was derived from the settling experiments and the numerical model validated against the analytical solution and the experimental data. Suspensions of SPIONs were of 2.8cm initial height, placed on a magnet, and monitored continuously with a digital camera. Applying a magnetic field of 0.5T of polarization, the SPION's velocity was of approximately 3·10(-5)m/s close to the magnet and decreases of two orders of magnitude across the domain. The process was characterized initially by a classical sedimentation behavior, i.e., an upper interface between the clear water and the suspension slowly moving towards the magnet and a lower interface between the sediment layer and the suspension moving away from the magnet. Subsequently, a rapid separation of nanoparticle occured suggesting a non-classical settling phenomenon induced by magnetic forces which favor particle aggregation and therefore faster settling. The rate of settling decreased with n and an optimal condition for fast separation was found for an initial n of 120g/L. The model agrees well with the measurements in the early stage of the settling, but it fails to describe the upper interface movement during the later stage, probably because of particle
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kiil, Søren
2017-01-01
The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model that can quantify the dispersion of pigments, with a focus on the mechanical breakage of pigment agglomerates. The underlying physical mechanism was assumed to be surface erosion of spherical pigment agglomerates. The full agglomerate pa.......g., in the development of novel dispersion principles and for analysis of dispersion failures. The general applicability of the model, beyond the three pigments considered, needs to be confirmed....
Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim
2016-04-01
Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.
Sensitivity analysis of model output - a step towards robust safety indicators?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broed, R.; Pereira, A.; Moberg, L.
2004-01-01
The protection of the environment from ionising radiation challenges the radioecological community with the issue of harmonising disparate safety indicators. These indicators should preferably cover the whole spectrum of model predictions on chemo-toxic and radiation impact of contaminants. In question is not only the protection of man and biota but also of abiotic systems. In many cases modelling will constitute the basis for an evaluation of potential impact. It is recognised that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of model output will play an important role in the 'construction' of safety indicators that are robust, reliable and easy to explain to all groups of stakeholders including the general public. However, environmental models of transport of radionuclides have some extreme characteristics. They are, a) complex, b) non-linear, c) include a huge number of input parameters, d) input parameters are associated with large or very large uncertainties, e) parameters are often correlated to each other, f) uncertainties other than parameter-driven may be present in the modelling system, g) space variability and time-dependence of parameters are present, h) model predictions may cover geological time scales. Consequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are non-trivial tasks, challenging the decision-maker when it comes to the interpretation of safety indicators or the application of regulatory criteria. In this work we use the IAEA model ISAM, to make a set of Monte Carlo calculations. The ISAM model includes several nuclides and decay chains, many compartments and variable parameters covering the range of nuclide migration pathways from the near field to the biosphere. The goal of our calculations is to make a global sensitivity analysis. After extracting the non-influential parameters, the M.C. calculations are repeated with those parameters frozen. Reducing the number of parameters to a few ones will simplify the interpretation of the results and the use
Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.
2009-04-01
Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades. Sirma Stenzel, Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer In the case of accidental release of hazardous gases in the atmosphere, the emergency responders need a reliable and fast tool to assess the possible consequences and apply the optimal countermeasures. For hazard prediction and simulation of the hazard zones a number of air dispersion models are available. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for display the results, they are easy to use and can operate fast and effective during stress situations. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. There are also possibilities for model direct coupling to automatic meteorological stations, in order to avoid uncertainties in the model output due to insufficient or incorrect meteorological data. Another key problem in coping with accidental toxic release is the relative width spectrum of regulations and values, like IDLH, ERPG, AEGL, MAK etc. and the different criteria for their application. Since the particulate emergency responders and organizations require for their purposes unequal regulations and values, it is quite difficult to predict the individual hazard areas. There are a quite number of research studies and investigations coping with the problem, anyway the end decision is up to the authorities. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and
Design and Output Performance Model of Turbodrill Blade Used in a Slim Borehole
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu Wang
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Small-diameter turbodrills have great potential for use in slim boreholes because of their lower cost and higher efficiency when used in geothermal energy and other underground resource applications. Multistage hydraulic components consisting of stators and rotors are key aspects of turbodrills. This study aimed to develop a suitable blade that can be used under high temperature in granite formations. First, prediction models for single- and multi-stage blades were established based on Bernoulli’s Equation. The design requirement of the blade for high-temperature geothermal drilling in granite was proposed. A Φ89 blade was developed based on the dimensionless parameter method and Bezier curve; the parameters of the blade, including its radial size, symotric parameters, and blade profiles, were input into ANASYS and CFX to establish a calculation model of the single-stage blade. The optimization of the blade structure of the small-diameter turbodrill enabled a multistage turbodrill model to be established and the turbodrill’s overall output performance to be predicted. The results demonstrate that the design can meet the turbodrill’s performance requirements and that the multistage model can effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Panitz, H.J.
1988-01-01
An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straightline Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different concepts of dispersion modelling on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been carried out. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that these trajectory models provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completly novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling which distinguish between two different distance ranges of validity: the near range ( 50 km). The two ranges are assigned to respective trajectory models
CM-DataONE: A Framework for collaborative analysis of climate model output
Xu, Hao; Bai, Yuqi; Li, Sha; Dong, Wenhao; Huang, Wenyu; Xu, Shiming; Lin, Yanluan; Wang, Bin
2015-04-01
CM-DataONE is a distributed collaborative analysis framework for climate model data which aims to break through the data access barriers of increasing file size and to accelerate research process. As data size involved in project such as the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has reached petabytes, conventional methods for analysis and diagnosis of model outputs have been rather time-consuming and redundant. CM-DataONE is developed for data publishers and researchers from relevant areas. It can enable easy access to distributed data and provide extensible analysis functions based on tools such as NCAR Command Language, NetCDF Operators (NCO) and Climate Data Operators (CDO). CM-DataONE can be easily installed, configured, and maintained. The main web application has two separate parts which communicate with each other through APIs based on HTTP protocol. The analytic server is designed to be installed in each data node while a data portal can be configured anywhere and connect to a nearest node. Functions such as data query, analytic task submission, status monitoring, visualization and product downloading are provided to end users by data portal. Data conform to CMIP5 Model Output Format in each peer node can be scanned by the server and mapped to a global information database. A scheduler included in the server is responsible for task decomposition, distribution and consolidation. Analysis functions are always executed where data locate. Analysis function package included in the server has provided commonly used functions such as EOF analysis, trend analysis and time series. Functions are coupled with data by XML descriptions and can be easily extended. Various types of results can be obtained by users for further studies. This framework has significantly decreased the amount of data to be transmitted and improved efficiency in model intercomparison jobs by supporting online analysis and multi-node collaboration. To end users, data query is
Towards Measures to Establish the Relevance of Climate Model Output for Decision Support
Clarke, L.; Smith, L. A.
2007-12-01
to weight climate model output in the decision process; one obvious example is the question of over what spatial and time averages modelers expect information in current climate distributions to be robust. The IPCC itself suggests continental/seasonal, while distributions over 10's of kilometers/hourly is on offer. Our aim here is not to resolve this discrepancy, but to develop methods with which it can be addressed. This is illustrated in the context of using another physically based, imperfect model setting: using Newton's laws in an actual case of NASA hazard evaluation. Our aim is to develop transparent standards of good practice managing expectations, which will allow model improvements over the next decades to be seen as progress by the users of climate science.
A new chance-constrained DEA model with birandom input and output data
Tavana, M.; Shiraz, R. K.; Hatami-Marbini, A.
2013-01-01
The purpose of conventional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is to evaluate the performance of a set of firms or Decision-Making Units using deterministic input and output data. However, the input and output data in the real-life performance evaluation problems are often stochastic. The stochastic input and output data in DEA can be represented with random variables. Several methods have been proposed to deal with the random input and output data in DEA. In this paper, we propose a new chance-...
RANS modeling of scalar dispersion from localized sources within a simplified urban-area model
Rossi, Riccardo; Capra, Stefano; Iaccarino, Gianluca
2011-11-01
The dispersion of a passive scalar downstream a localized source within a simplified urban-like geometry is examined by means of RANS scalar flux models. The computations are conducted under conditions of neutral stability and for three different incoming wind directions (0°, 45°, 90°) at a roughness Reynolds number of Ret = 391. A Reynolds stress transport model is used to close the flow governing equations whereas both the standard eddy-diffusivity closure and algebraic flux models are employed to close the transport equation for the passive scalar. The comparison with a DNS database shows improved reliability from algebraic scalar flux models towards predicting both the mean concentration and the plume structure. Since algebraic flux models do not increase substantially the computational effort, the results indicate that the use of tensorial-diffusivity can be promising tool for dispersion simulations for the urban environment.
Alligné, S.; Nicolet, C.; Béguin, A.; Landry, C.; Gomes, J.; Avellan, F.
2017-04-01
The prediction of pressure and output power fluctuations amplitudes on Francis turbine prototype is a challenge for hydro-equipment industry since it is subjected to guarantees to ensure smooth and reliable operation of the hydro units. The European FP7 research project Hyperbole aims to setup a methodology to transpose the pressure fluctuations induced by the cavitation vortex rope from the reduced scale model to the prototype generating units. A Francis turbine unit of 444MW with a specific speed value of ν = 0.29, is considered as case study. A SIMSEN model of the power station including electrical system, controllers, rotating train and hydraulic system with transposed draft tube excitation sources is setup. Based on this model, a frequency analysis of the hydroelectric system is performed for all technologies to analyse potential interactions between hydraulic excitation sources and electrical components. Three technologies have been compared: the classical fixed speed configuration with Synchronous Machine (SM) and the two variable speed technologies which are Doubly Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) and Full Size Frequency Converter (FSFC).
A new solar power output prediction based on hybrid forecast engine and decomposition model.
Zhang, Weijiang; Dang, Hongshe; Simoes, Rolando
2018-06-12
Regarding to the growing trend of photovoltaic (PV) energy as a clean energy source in electrical networks and its uncertain nature, PV energy prediction has been proposed by researchers in recent decades. This problem is directly effects on operation in power network while, due to high volatility of this signal, an accurate prediction model is demanded. A new prediction model based on Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) and integration of improved empirical mode decomposition (IEMD) with feature selection and forecast engine is presented in this paper. The proposed approach is divided into three main sections. In the first section, the signal is decomposed by the proposed IEMD as an accurate decomposition tool. To increase the accuracy of the proposed method, a new interpolation method has been used instead of cubic spline curve (CSC) fitting in EMD. Then the obtained output is entered into the new feature selection procedure to choose the best candidate inputs. Finally, the signal is predicted by a hybrid forecast engine composed of support vector regression (SVR) based on an intelligent algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified over a number of real-world engineering test cases in comparison with other well-known models. The obtained results prove the validity of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Does the DHET research output subsidy model penalise high-citation publication? A case study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yolande X. Harley
2016-05-01
Full Text Available South African universities are awarded annual subsidy from the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET based on their research publication output. Journal article subsidy is based on the number of research publications in DHET-approved journals as well as the proportional contribution of authors from the university. Co-authorship with other institutions reduces the subsidy received by a university, which may be a disincentive to collaboration. Inter-institutional collaboration may affect the scientific impact of resulting publications, as indicated by the number of citations received. We analysed 812 journal articles published in 2011 by authors from the University of Cape Town’s Faculty of Health Sciences to determine if there was a significant relationship between subsidy units received and (1 citation count and (2 field-weighted citation impact. We found that subsidy units had a significant inverse relationship with both citation count (r= -0.247; CI = -0.311 – -0.182; p"less than"0.0001 and field-weighted citation impact (r= -0.192; CI= -0.258 – -0.125; p"less than"0.0001. These findings suggest that the annual subsidy awarded to universities for research output may inadvertently penalise high-citation publication. Revision of the funding model to address this possibility would better align DHET funding allocation with the strategic plans of the South African Department of Science and Technology, the National Research Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council, and may better support publication of greater impact research.
Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed
Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia
2017-12-01
SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suolanen, V.; Ilvonen, M.
1998-10-01
Computer model DETRA applies a dynamic compartment modelling approach. The compartment structure of each considered application can be tailored individually. This flexible modelling method makes it possible that the transfer of radionuclides can be considered in various cases: aquatic environment and related food chains, terrestrial environment, food chains in general and food stuffs, body burden analyses of humans, etc. In the former study on this subject, modernization of the user interface of DETRA code was carried out. This new interface works in Windows environment and the usability of the code has been improved. The objective of this study has been to further develop and diversify the user interface so that also probabilistic uncertainty analyses can be performed by DETRA. The most common probability distributions are available: uniform, truncated Gaussian and triangular. The corresponding logarithmic distributions are also available. All input data related to a considered case can be varied, although this option is seldomly needed. The calculated output values can be selected as monitored values at certain simulation time points defined by the user. The results of a sensitivity run are immediately available after simulation as graphical presentations. These outcomes are distributions generated for varied parameters, density functions of monitored parameters and complementary cumulative density functions (CCDF). An application considered in connection with this work was the estimation of contamination of milk caused by radioactive deposition of Cs (10 kBq(Cs-137)/m 2 ). The multi-sequence calculation model applied consisted of a pasture modelling part and a dormant season modelling part. These two sequences were linked periodically simulating the realistic practice of care taking of domestic animals in Finland. The most important parameters were varied in this exercise. The performed diversifying of the user interface of DETRA code seems to provide an easily
State of the art atmospheric dispersion modelling. Should the Gaussian plume model still be used?
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Richter, Cornelia [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Koeln (Germany)
2016-11-15
For regulatory purposes with respect to licensing and supervision of airborne releases of nuclear installations, the Gaussian plume model is still in use in Germany. However, for complex situations the Gaussian plume model is to be replaced by a Lagrangian particle model. Now the new EU basic safety standards for protection against the dangers arising from exposure to ionising radiation (EU BSS) [1] asks for a realistic assessment of doses to the members of the public from authorised practices. This call for a realistic assessment raises the question whether dispersion modelling with the Gaussian plume model is an adequate approach anymore or whether the use of more complex models is mandatory.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Green, J.R.; Eckart, R.E.
1994-11-01
A study of computer codes was made to determine the suitability of their use for modeling radionuclide dispersion from attachment to fugitive dust at the GMX safety shot area of the Nevada Test site. Two codes, the Industrial Source Complex 2 Long Term Model (ISCLT2) and the Fugitive Dust Model (FDM), were subsequently chosen to model the GMX site. Dose calculations were performed using the output values generated by the computer codes. The concentration values produced by the two codes were within a factor of two of each other and were not significantly different. The FDM, however, was felt to be a more useful code for use in calculating doses caused by attachment to fugitive dust
Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...
Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.
Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo
2013-10-01
Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Linear summation of outputs in a balanced network model of motor cortex.
Capaday, Charles; van Vreeswijk, Carl
2015-01-01
Given the non-linearities of the neural circuitry's elements, we would expect cortical circuits to respond non-linearly when activated. Surprisingly, when two points in the motor cortex are activated simultaneously, the EMG responses are the linear sum of the responses evoked by each of the points activated separately. Additionally, the corticospinal transfer function is close to linear, implying that the synaptic interactions in motor cortex must be effectively linear. To account for this, here we develop a model of motor cortex composed of multiple interconnected points, each comprised of reciprocally connected excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show how non-linearities in neuronal transfer functions are eschewed by strong synaptic interactions within each point. Consequently, the simultaneous activation of multiple points results in a linear summation of their respective outputs. We also consider the effects of reduction of inhibition at a cortical point when one or more surrounding points are active. The network response in this condition is linear over an approximately two- to three-fold decrease of inhibitory feedback strength. This result supports the idea that focal disinhibition allows linear coupling of motor cortical points to generate movement related muscle activation patterns; albeit with a limitation on gain control. The model also explains why neural activity does not spread as far out as the axonal connectivity allows, whilst also explaining why distant cortical points can be, nonetheless, functionally coupled by focal disinhibition. Finally, we discuss the advantages that linear interactions at the cortical level afford to motor command synthesis.
The efficiency of the agricultural sector in Poland in the light output-input model1
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Czyżewski Andrzej
2015-05-01
Full Text Available The study turns attention to the use of the input-output model (account of interbranch flows in macroeconomic assessments of the effectiveness of the agricultural sector. In the introductory part the essence of the account of interbranch flows has been specified, pointing to its historical origin and place in the economic theory, and the morphological structure of the individual parts (quarters of the model has been presented. Then the study discusses the application of the account of interbranch flows in macroeconomic assessments of the effectiveness of the agricultural sector, defining and characterizing a number of indicators which allow to conclude on the effectiveness of the agricultural sector on the basis of the account of interbranch flows. The last, empirical part of the study assesses the effectiveness of the agricultural sector in Poland on the basis of interbranch flows statistics for the years 2000 and 2005. The analyses allowed to demonstrate increased efficiency of the agricultural sector in Poland after Poland joined the EU, and also to say that the account of interbranch flows is an important tool enabling comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the agricultural sector in the macro-scale, through the prism of the effect - disbursement, which accounts for its exceptional suitability in this kind of analyses.
Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics
Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.
2017-12-01
A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olav Slupphaug
2001-01-01
Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.
Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marta Capiluppi
2012-10-01
Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.
Finding the Root Causes of Statistical Inconsistency in Community Earth System Model Output
Milroy, D.; Hammerling, D.; Baker, A. H.
2017-12-01
Baker et al (2015) developed the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) to provide a metric for software quality assurance by determining statistical consistency between an ensemble of CESM outputs and new test runs. The test has proved useful for detecting statistical difference caused by compiler bugs and errors in physical modules. However, detection is only the necessary first step in finding the causes of statistical difference. The CESM is a vastly complex model comprised of millions of lines of code which is developed and maintained by a large community of software engineers and scientists. Any root cause analysis is correspondingly challenging. We propose a new capability for CESM-ECT: identifying the sections of code that cause statistical distinguishability. The first step is to discover CESM variables that cause CESM-ECT to classify new runs as statistically distinct, which we achieve via Randomized Logistic Regression. Next we use a tool developed to identify CESM components that define or compute the variables found in the first step. Finally, we employ the application Kernel GENerator (KGEN) created in Kim et al (2016) to detect fine-grained floating point differences. We demonstrate an example of the procedure and advance a plan to automate this process in our future work.
Energy efficiency of selected OECD countries: A slacks based model with undesirable outputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Apergis, Nicholas; Aye, Goodness C.; Barros, Carlos Pestana; Gupta, Rangan; Wanke, Peter
2015-01-01
This paper presents an efficiency assessment of selected OECD countries using a Slacks Based Model with undesirable or bad outputs (SBM-Undesirable). In this research, SBM-Undesirable is used first in a two-stage approach to assess the relative efficiency of OECD countries using the most frequent indicators adopted by the literature on energy efficiency. Besides, in the second stage, GLMM–MCMC methods are combined with SBM-Undesirable results as part of an attempt to produce a model for energy performance with effective predictive ability. The results reveal different impacts of contextual variables, such as economic blocks and capital–labor ratio, on energy efficiency levels. - Highlights: • We analyze the energy efficiency of selected OECD countries. • SBM-Undesirable and MCMC–GLMM are combined for this purpose. • Find that efficiency levels are high but declining over time. • Analysis with contextual variables shows varying efficiency levels across groups. • Capital-intensive countries are more energy efficient than labor-intensive countries.
Mechanisms Regulating the Cardiac Output Response to Cyanide Infusion, a Model of Hypoxia
Liang, Chang-seng; Huckabee, William E.
1973-01-01
When tissue metabolic changes like those of hypoxia were induced by intra-aortic infusion of cyanide in dogs, cardiac output began to increase after 3 to 5 min, reached a peak (220% of the control value) at 15 min, and returned to control in 40 min. This pattern of cardiac output rise was not altered by vagotomy with or without atropine pretreatment. However, this cardiac output response could be differentiated into three phases by pretreating the animals with agents that block specific activities of the sympatho-adrenal system. First, ganglionic blockade produced by mecamylamine or sympathetic nerve blockade by bretylium abolished the middle phase of the cardiac output seen in the untreated animal, but early and late phases still could be discerned. Second, beta-adrenergic receptor blockade produced by propranolol shortened the total duration of the cardiac output rise by abolishing the late phase. Third, when given together, propranolol and mecamylamine (or bretylium) prevented most of the cardiac output rise that follows the early phase. When cyanide was given to splenectomized dogs, the duration of the cardiac output response was not shortened, but the response became biphasic, resembling that seen after chemical sympathectomy. A similar biphasic response of the cardiac output also resulted from splenic denervation; sham operation or nephrectomy had no effect on the monophasic pattern of the normal response. Splenic venous blood obtained from cyanide-treated dogs, when infused intraportally, caused an increase in cardiac output in recipient dogs; similar infusion of arterial blood had no effects. These results suggest that the cardiac output response to cyanide infusion consists of three components: an early phase, related neither to the autonomic nervous system nor to circulating catecholamines; a middle phase, caused by a nonadrenergic humoral substance released from the spleen by sympathetic stimulation; and a late phase, dependent upon adrenergic receptors
Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui
2018-01-01
Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are
One-dimensional Analytical Modelling of Floating Seed Dispersal in Tidal Channels
Shi, W.; Purnama, A.; Shao, D.; Cui, B.; Gao, W.
2017-12-01
Seed dispersal is a primary factor influencing plant community development, and thus plays a critical role in maintaining wetland ecosystem functioning. However, compared with fluvial seed dispersal of riparian plants, dispersal of saltmarsh plant seeds in tidal channels is much less studied due to its complex behavior, and relevant mathematical modelling is particularly lacking. In this study, we developed a one-dimensional advection-dispersion model to explore the patterns of tidal seed dispersal. Oscillatory tidal current and water depth were assumed to represent the tidal effects. An exponential decay coefficient λ was introduced to account for seed deposition and retention. Analytical solution in integral form was derived using Green's function and further evaluated using numerical integration. The developed model was applied to simulate Spartina densiflora seed dispersal in a tidal channel located at the Mad River Slough in North Humboldt Bay, California, USA, to demonstrate its practical applicability. Model predictions agree satisfactorily with field observation and simulation results from Delft3D numerical model. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to evaluate the effects of varying calibrated parameters on model predictions. The range of the seed dispersion as well as the distribution of the seed concentration were further analyzed through statistical parameters such as centroid displacement and variance of the seed cloud together with seed concentration contours. Implications of the modelling results on tidal marsh restoration and protection, e.g., revegetation through seed addition, were also discussed through scenario analysis. The developed analytical model provides a useful tool for ecological management of tidal marshes.
Dispersion of conservative properties for SGD effects by numerical modeling
Gallegos, G.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.
2013-05-01
The submarine groundwater discharges around de coasts of theYucatán Peninsula are very common because of its karstic nature. These discharges of fresh water into the sea can change the thermohaline conditions of the region. There are several studies that demonstrate that point submarine groundwater discharges can change the superficial temperature and haline conditions near the point-SGD. Furthermore, there is evidence that considerable concentrations of nutrients are transported to the sea via SGDs. In order to quantify the area of influence of a point-SGD and the ability of the coastal system to dissipate the ground water, this study presents a numerical simulation of a point-SGD on the north coast of Yucatán, Dzilam Bravo. Teh flow recorded for this SGD is ~1m^3/s and it is located 200m offshore in waters of less than 2m detph.. The numerical simulation was carried out in the model DELFT-3D which has been calibrated with water level and hydrodynamics data for the region with a grid of 486 x 243 nodes that cover an area of 6 km alongshore by 2 km crosshore with a resolution of 14 m. Three ideal numerical scenarios were simulated: only wind forcing, only tidal forcing and wind-tide forcing. The real cases are for two different wind conditions, the first is a southeast wind, and the second is a breeze with an easterly component; the dominant winds in the region are easterly. Seasonal variation was also simulated; the two conditions that exist in the region are the rainy and dry seasons. The extreme events of ENSO and northerly storms locally known as "nortes" were also simulated. The results of the ideal set of scenarios shows wind as the principal forcing for dispersion and it governs the direction of the salinity gradient. The seasonal variations show that the area of influence in terms of salinity is also a function of the contrast between fresh and sea water, and finally the set of extreme condition simulations shows, in case of the northerly storms, that the
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Peter Leth; Gaididei, Yuri Borisovich; Johansson, M.
1998-01-01
The dynamics of discrete two-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger models with long-range dispersive interactions is investigated. In particular, we focus on the cases where the dispersion arises from a dipole-dipole interaction, assuming the dipole moments at each lattice site to be aligned either...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.N.M.P. Simamora
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Efficiency condition occurs when the value of the used outputs compared to the resource total that has been used almost close to the value 1 (absolute environment. An instrument to achieve efficiency if the power output level has decreased significantly in the life of the instrument used, if it compared to the previous condition, when the instrument is not equipped with additional systems (or proposed model improvement. Even more effective if the inputs model that are used in unison to achieve a homogeneous output. On this research has been designed and implemented the automatic control system for models of single input-dual-output, wherein the sampling instruments used are lamp and fan. Source voltage used is AC (alternate-current and tested using quantitative research methods and instrumentation (with measuring instruments are observed. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the instrument experienced a significant current model of single-input-dual-output applied separately instrument trials such as lamp and fan when it compared to the condition or state before. And the result show that the design has been built, can also run well.
Multiregional input-output model for China's farm land and water use.
Guo, Shan; Shen, Geoffrey Qiping
2015-01-06
Land and water are the two main drivers of agricultural production. Pressure on farm land and water resources is increasing in China due to rising food demand. Domestic trade affects China's regional farm land and water use by distributing resources associated with the production of goods and services. This study constructs a multiregional input-output model to simultaneously analyze China's farm land and water uses embodied in consumption and interregional trade. Results show a great similarity for both China's farm land and water endowments. Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, and Yunnan are the most important drivers of farm land and water consumption in China, even though they have relatively few land and water resource endowments. Significant net transfers of embodied farm land and water flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Heilongjiang is the largest farm land and water supplier, in contrast to Shanghai as the largest receiver. The results help policy makers to comprehensively understand embodied farm land and water flows in a complex economy network. Improving resource utilization efficiency and reshaping the embodied resource trade nexus should be addressed by considering the transfer of regional responsibilities.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
May Tan May
2018-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years, there has been an increase in crude palm oil (CPO demand, resulting in palm oil mills (POMs seizing the opportunity to increase CPO production to make more profits. A series of equipment are designed to operate in their optimum capacities in the current existing POMs. Some equipment may be limited by their maximum design capacities when there is a need to increase CPO production, resulting in process bottlenecks. In this research, a framework is developed to provide stepwise procedures on identifying bottlenecks and retrofitting a POM process to cater for the increase in production capacity. This framework adapts an algebraic approach known as Inoperability Input-Output Modelling (IIM. To illustrate the application of the framework, an industrial POM case study was solved using LINGO software in this work, by maximising its production capacity. Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR analysis was also performed to assess the economic feasibility. As results, the Screw Press was identified as the bottleneck. The retrofitting recommendation was to purchase an additional Screw Press to cater for the new throughput with BCR of 54.57. It was found the POM to be able to achieve the maximum targeted production capacity of 8,139.65 kg/hr of CPO without any bottlenecks.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fast, J.D.; O'Steen, B.L.
1994-01-01
The results of this study indicate that the current data assimilation technique can have a positive impact on the mesoscale flow fields; however, care must be taken in its application to grids of relatively fine horizontal resolution. Continuous FDDA is a useful tool in producing high-resolution mesoscale analysis fields that can be used to (1) create a better initial conditions for mesoscale atmospheric models and (2) drive transport models for dispersion studies. While RAMS is capable of predicting the qualitative flow during this evening, additional experiments need to be performed to improve the prognostic forecasts made by RAMS and refine the FDDA procedure so that the overall errors are reduced even further. Despite the fact that a great deal of computational time is necessary in executing RAMS and LPDM in the configuration employed in this study, recent advances in workstations is making applications such as this more practical. As the speed of these machines increase in the next few years, it will become feasible to employ prognostic, three-dimensional mesoscale/transport models to routinely predict atmospheric dispersion of pollutants, even to highly complex terrain. For example, the version of RAMS in this study could be run in a ''nowcasting'' model that would continually assimilate local and regional observations as soon as they become available. The atmospheric physics in the model would be used to determine the wind field where no observations are available. The three-dimensional flow fields could be used as dynamic initial conditions for a model forecast. The output from this type of modeling system will have to be compared to existing diagnostic, mass-consistent models to determine whether the wind field and dispersion forecasts are significantly improved
A Hierarchical multi-input and output Bi-GRU Model for Sentiment Analysis on Customer Reviews
Zhang, Liujie; Zhou, Yanquan; Duan, Xiuyu; Chen, Ruiqi
2018-03-01
Multi-label sentiment classification on customer reviews is a practical challenging task in Natural Language Processing. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical multi-input and output model based bi-directional recurrent neural network, which both considers the semantic and lexical information of emotional expression. Our model applies two independent Bi-GRU layer to generate part of speech and sentence representation. Then the lexical information is considered via attention over output of softmax activation on part of speech representation. In addition, we combine probability of auxiliary labels as feature with hidden layer to capturing crucial correlation between output labels. The experimental result shows that our model is computationally efficient and achieves breakthrough improvements on customer reviews dataset.
Modeling and notation of DEA with strong and weak disposable outputs.
Kuntz, Ludwig; Sülz, Sandra
2011-12-01
Recent articles published in Health Care Management Science have described DEA applications under the assumption of strong and weak disposable outputs. As we confidently assume that these papers include some methodical deficiencies, we aim to illustrate a revised approach.
Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.
2009-08-01
Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asma Foughali
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to
Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Maragkos, Georgios; Beji, Tarek; Merci, Bart
2016-11-15
The release of toxic gases due to natural/industrial accidents or terrorist attacks in populated areas can have tragic consequences. To prevent and evaluate the effects of these disasters different approaches and modelling tools have been introduced in the literature. These instruments are valuable tools for risk managers doing risk assessment of threatened areas. Despite the significant improvements in hazard assessment in case of toxic gas dispersion, these analyses do not generally include the impact of human behaviour and people movement during emergencies. This work aims at providing an approach which considers both modelling of gas dispersion and evacuation movement in order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment for disasters involving toxic gases. The approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including a ship releasing Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on a crowd attending a music festival. The difference between the results obtained with existing static methods (people do not move) and a dynamic approach (people move away from the danger) which considers people movement with different degrees of sophistication (either a simple linear path or more complex behavioural modelling) is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo
2015-01-01
setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface...... temperature used as lower boundary conditions. Also, the strength and form (grid vs spectral) of the nudging is quite irrelevant for the mean wind speed at 100 m. Large sensitivity is found to the choice of boundary layer parametrization, and to the length of the period that is discarded as spin-up to produce...... a wind climatology. It is found that the spin-up period for the boundary layer winds is likely larger than 12 h over land and could affect the wind climatology for points offshore for quite a distance downstream from the coast....
Modeling DPOAE input/output function compression: comparisons with hearing thresholds.
Bhagat, Shaum P
2014-09-01
Basilar membrane input/output (I/O) functions in mammalian animal models are characterized by linear and compressed segments when measured near the location corresponding to the characteristic frequency. A method of studying basilar membrane compression indirectly in humans involves measuring distortion-product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) I/O functions. Previous research has linked compression estimates from behavioral growth-of-masking functions to hearing thresholds. The aim of this study was to compare compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions and hearing thresholds at 1 and 2 kHz. A prospective correlational research design was performed. The relationship between DPOAE I/O function compression estimates and hearing thresholds was evaluated with Pearson product-moment correlations. Normal-hearing adults (n = 16) aged 22-42 yr were recruited. DPOAE I/O functions (L₂ = 45-70 dB SPL) and two-interval forced-choice hearing thresholds were measured in normal-hearing adults. A three-segment linear regression model applied to DPOAE I/O functions supplied estimates of compression thresholds, defined as breakpoints between linear and compressed segments and the slopes of the compressed segments. Pearson product-moment correlations between DPOAE compression estimates and hearing thresholds were evaluated. A high correlation between DPOAE compression thresholds and hearing thresholds was observed at 2 kHz, but not at 1 kHz. Compression slopes also correlated highly with hearing thresholds only at 2 kHz. The derivation of cochlear compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions provides a means to characterize basilar membrane mechanics in humans and elucidates the role of compression in tone detection in the 1-2 kHz frequency range. American Academy of Audiology.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
French McCay, D.; Mueller, C.; Jayko, K.; Longval, B.; Schroeder, M. [Applied Science Associates Inc., Narragansett, RI (United States); Terrill, E.; Carter, M.; Otero, M.; Kim, S.Y. [Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Nordhausen, W.; Lampinen, M. [California Dept. of Fish and Game, San Diego, CA (United States). Office of Spill Prevention and Response; Payne, J.R. [Payne Environmental Consultants Inc., Encinitas, CA (United States); Ohlmann, C. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
2007-07-01
In the event of on oil spill at sea, the concentration of hydrocarbons in the water column can be evaluated using oil spill fate and transport modeling. Such modeling can also determine the potential exposure to zooplankton, and the impacts of oil spills with and without the use of dispersants. This paper reported on fluorescein dye studies that were conducted off Sand Diego, California to evaluate the ability of transport models to hindcast movement and dispersion of dye using data such as surface currents calculated from high-frequency radar; near surface currents from drifter measurements drogued at several depths; dye concentrations measured by fluorescence; spreading and dye intensity measurements based on aerial photography; and, water density profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) casts. This paper presented modeling issues that remain to be addressed, such as the need to resolve small-scale transport processes in order to evaluate effects on water column biota. Since these processes determining current velocities are complex, it is not feasible to include most of the complexities at appropriately small scales in oil spill modeling applications. The difficulty in predicting currents that transport oil components and organisms with a hydrodynamic model application that does not include temporal details in the forcing function was also discussed. This paper demonstrated that the SIMAP spill trajectory model, using the drifter velocities as current input, successfully reproduced trajectories of the dye. The effect of wind drift transporting the surface material faster than the subsurface materials was identified as a spreading mechanism. Therefore, subtraction of the wind drift from the shallower drifter velocities, and inclusion of wind drift in SIMAP would allow those velocities to be used for depths other than those tracked by the drifters. 57 refs., 8 tabs., 17 figs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat
2013-01-01
A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... The proposed MOS performed well in both wind farms, and its forecasts compare positively with an actual operative model in use at Risø DTU and other MOS types, showing minimum BIAS and improving NWP power forecast of around 15% in terms of root mean square error. Further improvements could be obtained...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Norden, C.E.
1981-11-01
An indium tracer aerosol generating apparatus based on an alcohol/oxygen burner, and an analytical procedure by which filter samples containing tracer material could be analysed quantitatively by means of neutron activation analysis, were developed for use in atmospheric dispersion and deposition studies. A number of series of atmospheric dispersion experiments were conducted in the Richards Bay and Koeberg- Cape Town areas. The results are given, comparing the airbone tracer concentrations measured at ground level with values predicted by means of a numerical model, utilising two to three schemes, varying in sophistication, for calculating the dispersion coefficients. Recommendations are given regarding a dispersion model and dispersion coefficients for regular use in the Koeberg area, and ways for estimating plume trajectories
Modelling surface radioactive spill dispersion in the Alborán Sea.
Periáñez, R
2006-01-01
The Strait of Gibraltar and the Alborán Sea are the only connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Intense shipping activities occur in the area, including transport of waste radionuclides and transit of nuclear submarines. Thus, it is relevant to have a dispersion model that can be used in an emergency situation after an accident, to help the decision-making process. Such dispersion model requires an appropriate description of the physical oceanography of the region of interest, with simulations of tides and residual (average) circulation. In this work, a particle-tracking dispersion model that can be used to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides in the system Strait of Gibraltar-Alborán Sea is described. Tides are simulated using a barotropic model and for the average circulation a reduced-gravity model is applied. This model is able to reproduce the main features of the Alborán circulation (the well known Western Alborán Gyre, WAG, and the coastal circulation mode). The dispersion model is run off-line, using previously computed tidal and residual currents. The contamination patch is simulated by a number of particles whose individual paths are computed; diffusion and decay being modelled using a Monte Carlo method. Radionuclide concentrations may be obtained from the density of particles per water volume unit. Results from the hydrodynamic models have been compared with observations in the area. Several examples of dispersion computations under different wind and circulation conditions are presented.
Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard
2013-01-01
Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.
Zhang, Hai-Mei; Chen, Shi-Lu
2015-06-09
The lack of dispersion in the B3LYP functional has been proposed to be the main origin of big errors in quantum chemical modeling of a few enzymes and transition metal complexes. In this work, the essential dispersion effects that affect quantum chemical modeling are investigated. With binuclear zinc isoaspartyl dipeptidase (IAD) as an example, dispersion is included in the modeling of enzymatic reactions by two different procedures, i.e., (i) geometry optimizations followed by single-point calculations of dispersion (approach I) and (ii) the inclusion of dispersion throughout geometry optimization and energy evaluation (approach II). Based on a 169-atom chemical model, the calculations show a qualitative consistency between approaches I and II in energetics and most key geometries, demonstrating that both approaches are available with the latter preferential since both geometry and energy are dispersion-corrected in approach II. When a smaller model without Arg233 (147 atoms) was used, an inconsistency was observed, indicating that the missing dispersion interactions are essentially responsible for determining equilibrium geometries. Other technical issues and mechanistic characteristics of IAD are also discussed, in particular with respect to the effects of Arg233.
Lee, Jonghyun; Rolle, Massimo; Kitanidis, Peter K
2017-09-15
Most recent research on hydrodynamic dispersion in porous media has focused on whole-domain dispersion while other research is largely on laboratory-scale dispersion. This work focuses on the contribution of a single block in a numerical model to dispersion. Variability of fluid velocity and concentration within a block is not resolved and the combined spreading effect is approximated using resolved quantities and macroscopic parameters. This applies whether the formation is modeled as homogeneous or discretized into homogeneous blocks but the emphasis here being on the latter. The process of dispersion is typically described through the Fickian model, i.e., the dispersive flux is proportional to the gradient of the resolved concentration, commonly with the Scheidegger parameterization, which is a particular way to compute the dispersion coefficients utilizing dispersivity coefficients. Although such parameterization is by far the most commonly used in solute transport applications, its validity has been questioned. Here, our goal is to investigate the effects of heterogeneity and mass transfer limitations on block-scale longitudinal dispersion and to evaluate under which conditions the Scheidegger parameterization is valid. We compute the relaxation time or memory of the system; changes in time with periods larger than the relaxation time are gradually leading to a condition of local equilibrium under which dispersion is Fickian. The method we use requires the solution of a steady-state advection-dispersion equation, and thus is computationally efficient, and applicable to any heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity K field without requiring statistical or structural assumptions. The method was validated by comparing with other approaches such as the moment analysis and the first order perturbation method. We investigate the impact of heterogeneity, both in degree and structure, on the longitudinal dispersion coefficient and then discuss the role of local dispersion
Modelling drivers of mangrove propagule dispersal and restoration of abandoned shrimp farms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Di Nitto
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Propagule dispersal of four mangrove species Rhizophora mucronata, R. apiculata, Ceriops tagal and Avicennia officinalis in the Pambala–Chilaw Lagoon Complex (Sri Lanka was studied by combining a hydrodynamic model with species-specific knowledge on propagule dispersal behaviour. Propagule transport was simulated using a finite-volume advection-diffusion model to investigate the effect of dispersal vectors (tidal flow, freshwater discharge and wind, trapping agents (retention by vegetation and seed characteristics (buoyancy on propagule dispersal patterns. Sensitivity analysis showed that smaller propagules, like the oval-shaped propagules of Avicennia officinalis, dispersed over larger distances and were most sensitive to changing values of retention by mangrove vegetation compared to larger, torpedo-shaped propagules of Rhizophora spp. and C. tagal. Directional propagule dispersal in this semi-enclosed lagoon with a small tidal range was strongly concentrated towards the edges of the lagoon and channels. Short distance dispersal appeared to be the main dispersal strategy for all four studied species, with most of the propagules being retained within the vegetation. Only a small proportion (max. 5% of propagules left the lagoon through a channel connecting the lagoon with the open sea. Wind significantly influenced dispersal distance and direction once propagules entered the lagoon or adjacent channels. Implications of these findings for mangrove restoration were tested by simulating partial removal in the model of dikes around abandoned shrimp ponds to restore tidal hydrology and facilitate natural recolonisation by mangroves. The specific location of dike removal, (with respect to the vicinity of mangroves and independently suitable hydrodynamic flows, was found to significantly affect the resultant quantities and species of inflowing propagules and hence the potential effectiveness of natural regeneration. These results demonstrate the
Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong
2017-12-01
Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.
Wind field and dispersion modelling in complex terrain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartzis, J.G.; Varvayanni, M.; Catsaros, N.; Konte, K.; Amanatidis, G.
1991-01-01
Dispersion of airborne radioactive material can have an important environmental impact. Its prediction remains a difficult problem, especially over complex and inhomogeneous terrain, or under complicated atmospheric conditions. The ADREA-I code, a three-dimensional transport code especially designed for terrains of high complexity can be considered as contribution to the solution of the above problem. The code development has been initiated within the present CEC Radiation Program. New features are introduced into the code to describe the anomalous topography, the turbulent diffusion and numerical solution procedures. In this work besides a brief presentation of the main features of the code, a number of applications will be presented with the aim on one hand to illustrate the capability and reliability of the code and on the other hand to clarify the effects on windfield and dispersion in special cases of interest. Within the framework of ADREA-I verification studies, a I-D simulation of the experimental Wangara Day-33 mean boundary layer was attempted, reproducing the daytime wind speeds, temperatures, specific humidities and mixing depths. In order to address the effect of surface irregularities and inhomogeneities on contamination patterns, the flow field and dispersion were analyzed over a 2-D, 1000m high mountain range, surrounded by sea, with a point source assumed 40km offshore from one coastline. This terrain was studied as representing a greater Athens area idealization. The effects of a 2-D, 1000m high mountain range of Gaussian shape on long range transport has also been studied in terms of influence area, wind and concentration profile distortions and dry deposition patterns
Kassianov, E.; Pekour, M. S.; Flynn, C. J.; Berg, L. K.; Beranek, J.; Zelenyuk, A.; Zhao, C.; Leung, L. R.; Ma, P. L.; Riihimaki, L.; Fast, J. D.; Barnard, J.; Hallar, G. G.; McCubbin, I.; Eloranta, E. W.; McComiskey, A. C.; Rasch, P. J.
2017-12-01
Understanding the effects of dust on the regional and global climate requires detailed information on particle size distributions and their changes with distance from the source. Awareness is now growing about the tendency of the dust coarse mode with moderate ( 3.5 µm) volume median diameter (VMD) to be rather insensitive to complex removal processes associated with long-range transport of dust from the main sources. Our study, with a focus on the transpacific transport of dust, demonstrates that the impact of coarse mode aerosol (VMD 3µm) is well defined at the high-elevation mountain-top Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL, about 3.2 km MSL) and nearby Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Mobile Facility (AMF) during March 2011. Significant amounts of coarse mode aerosol are also found at the nearest Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) site. Outputs from the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) show that the major dust event is likely associated with transpacific transport of Asian and African plumes. Satellite data, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and plume height from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar data provide the observational support of the WRF-Chem simulations. Our study complements previous findings by indicating that the quasi-static nature of the coarse mode appears to be a reasonable approximation for Asian and African dust despite expected frequent orographic precipitation over mountainous regions in the western United States.
Lagrangian modelling of dispersion, sedimentation and resuspension processes in marine environments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gidhagen, L.; Rahm, L.; Nyberg, L.
1989-01-01
The model is based on a modified Langevin's equation which simulates the turbulent crossflow velocity fluctuations in shear flows. The velocity and turbulence fields used are generated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamical model including a k-ε turbulence scheme. Since the dispersion model is formulated for only low particle concentrations, it is decoupled from the hydrodynamical model calculations. A great drawback in conventional dispersion modelling is the more or less unavoidable numerical diffusion. The use of a Lagrangian particle model will avoid this effect and the resulting too low concentrations for a given release. One consequence is a more realistic distribution of deposited particles. However, with regard to the overall deposition rates the simulated sedimentation process agrees well with well-established advection/diffusion model formulations. With a modified hydrodynamic model, the dispersion model can directly be applied to stratified 3D simulations. (orig./HP) [de
Witte, L.
2014-06-01
To support landing site assessments for HDA-capable flight systems and to facilitate trade studies between the potential HDA architectures versus the yielded probability of safe landing a stochastic landing dispersion model has been developed.
Marine radioactivity studies in the Suez Canal: Modelling hydrodynamics and dispersion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abril, J.M.; Abdel-Aal, M.M.
1999-01-01
This paper comprises the work carried out under the IAEA Technical Co-operation Project EGY/07/002. The main goal was to develop a modelling study on the dispersion of radioactive pollution in the Suez Canal
Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - utility for the fire brigades.
Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.
2009-09-01
Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios”), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Viennese fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program of the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. For the purpose of our study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Trace (Safer System), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer). A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed, with the models above, in order to predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. Furthermore, the application of the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in case of toxic release was
Benchmarking of numerical models describing the dispersion of radionuclides in the Arctic Seas
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harms, I.
1997-01-01
As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea. The objectives of this group are: (1......) development of realistic and reliable assessment models for the dispersal of radioactive contaminants both within, and from, the Arctic ocean; and (2) evaluation of the contributions of different transfer mechanisms to contaminant dispersal and hence, ultimately, to the risks to human health and environment...
Jacquin, A. P.
2012-04-01
This study analyses the effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model's discharge estimates. Prediction uncertainty bounds are derived using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation (at a single station within the catchment) and a precipitation factor FPi. Thus, these factors provide a simplified representation of the spatial variation of precipitation, specifically the shape of the functional relationship between precipitation and height. In the absence of information about appropriate values of the precipitation factors FPi, these are estimated through standard calibration procedures. The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. Monte Carlo samples of the model output are obtained by randomly varying the model parameters within their feasible ranges. In the first experiment, the precipitation factors FPi are considered unknown and thus included in the sampling process. The total number of unknown parameters in this case is 16. In the second experiment, precipitation factors FPi are estimated a priori, by means of a long term water balance between observed discharge at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration estimates and observed precipitation. In this case, the number of unknown parameters reduces to 11. The feasible ranges assigned to the precipitation factors in the first experiment are slightly wider than the range of fixed precipitation factors used in the second experiment. The mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge during the calibration period is used for the evaluation of the
IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON OUTPUT GROWTH: CO INTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asma Arif
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This study analyzed the long run relationship between trade openness and output growth for Pakistan using annual time series data for 1972-2010. This study follows the Engle and Granger co integration analysis and error correction approach to analyze the long run relationship between the two variables. The Error Correction Term (ECT for output growth and trade openness is significant at 5% level of significance and indicates a positive long run relation between the variables. This study has also analyzed the causality between trade openness and output growth by using granger causality test. The results of granger causality show that there is a bi-directional significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth.
Modelling of pollution dispersion in atmosphere; Modelowanie procesow propagacji skazen w atmosferze
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Borysiewicz, M; Stankiewicz, R
1994-12-31
The paper contains the review of the mathematical foundation of atmospheric dispersion models. The atmospheric phenomena relevant to atmospheric dispersion model are discussed. In particular the parametrization of processes with time and space scales smaller than numerical grid size, limited by available computer power, is presented. The special attention was devoted to similarity theory and parametrization of boundary layer. The numerical methods are analysed and the drawbacks of the method are presented. (author). 99 refs, 15 figs, 3 tabs.
Numerical models for computation of pollutant-dispersion in the atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leder, S.M.; Biesemann-Krueger, A.
1985-04-01
The report describes some models which are used to compute the concentration of emitted pollutants in the lower atmosphere. A dispersion model, developed at the University of Hamburg, is considered in more detail and treated with two different numerical methods. The convergence of the methods is investigated and a comparison of numerical results and dispersion experiments carried out at the Nuclear Research Center Karlsruhe is given. (orig.) [de
Output variability caused by random seeds in a multi-agent transport simulation model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paulsen, Mads; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker
2018-01-01
Dynamic transport simulators are intended to support decision makers in transport-related issues, and as such it is valuable that the random variability of their outputs is as small as possible. In this study we analyse the output variability caused by random seeds of a multi-agent transport...... simulator (MATSim) when applied to a case study of Santiago de Chile. Results based on 100 different random seeds shows that the relative accuracies of estimated link loads tend to increase with link load, but that relative errors of up to 10 % do occur even for links with large volumes. Although...
Measurement needs guided by synthetic radar scans in high-resolution model output
Varble, A.; Nesbitt, S. W.; Borque, P.
2017-12-01
Microphysical and dynamical process interactions within deep convective clouds are not well understood, partly because measurement strategies often focus on statistics of cloud state rather than cloud processes. While processes cannot be directly measured, they can be inferred with sufficiently frequent and detailed scanning radar measurements focused on the life cycleof individual cloud regions. This is a primary goal of the 2018-19 DOE ARM Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) and NSF Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaigns in central Argentina, where orographic deep convective initiation is frequent with some high-impact systems growing into the tallest and largest in the world. An array of fixed and mobile scanning multi-wavelength dual-polarization radars will be coupled with surface observations, sounding systems, multi-wavelength vertical profilers, and aircraft in situ measurements to characterize convective cloud life cycles and their relationship with environmental conditions. While detailed cloud processes are an observational target, the radar scan patterns that are most ideal for observing them are unclear. They depend on the locations and scales of key microphysical and dynamical processes operating within the cloud. High-resolution simulations of clouds, while imperfect, can provide information on these locations and scales that guide radar measurement needs. Radar locations are set in the model domain based on planned experiment locations, and simulatedorographic deep convective initiation and upscale growth are sampled using a number of different scans involving RHIs or PPIs with predefined elevation and azimuthal angles that approximately conform with radar range and beam width specifications. Each full scan pattern is applied to output atsingle model time steps with time step intervals that depend on the length of time
Modelling the atmospheric dispersion of foot-and-mouth disease virus for emergency preparedness
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, J.H.; Jensen, C.O.; Mikkelsen, T.
2001-01-01
A model system for simulating airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is described. The system includes a virus production model and the local- and mesoscale atmospheric dispersion model RIMPUFF linked to the LINCOM local-scale Row model. LINCOM is used to calculate the sub-grid scale Row...
The input and output management of solid waste using DEA models: A case study at Jengka, Pahang
Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Ghazali, Nur Fadzrina Mohd; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah
2017-08-01
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a tool for obtaining performance indices has been used extensively in several of organizations sector. The ways to improve the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is impractical because some of inputs and outputs are uncontrollable and in certain situation its produce weak efficiency which often reflect the impact for operating environment. Based on the data from Alam Flora Sdn. Bhd Jengka, the researcher wants to determine the efficiency of solid waste management (SWM) in town Jengka Pahang using CCRI and CCRO model of DEA and duality formulation with vector average input and output. Three input variables (length collection in meter, frequency time per week in hour and number of garbage truck) and 2 outputs variables (frequency collection and the total solid waste collection in kilogram) are analyzed. As a conclusion, it shows only three roads from 23 roads are efficient that achieve efficiency score 1. Meanwhile, 20 other roads are in an inefficient management.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Torres Astorga, Romina; Velasco, Hugo; Valladares, Diego L.; Lohaiza, Flavia; Ayub, Jimena Juri; Rizzotto, Marcos [Grupo de Estudios Ambientales. Instituto de Matematica Aplicada San Luis - Universidad Nacional de San Luis - CONICET, San Luis (Argentina)
2014-07-01
{sup 7}Be is a short-lived environmental radionuclide, produced in the upper atmosphere by spallation of nitrogen and oxygen by cosmic rays. After of the production by the nuclear reaction, {sup 7}Be diffuses through the atmosphere until it attaches to atmospheric aerosols. Subsequently, it is deposited on the earth surface mainly as wet fallout. The main physical processes which transport {sup 7}Be in soil are diffusion and advection by water. Migration parameters and measurements confirm that sorption is the main physical process, which confines {sup 7}Be concentration to soil surface. The literature data show that in soils, {sup 7}Be is concentrated near the surface (0-2 cm) as it is adsorbed onto clay minerals after its deposition on the soil surface and does not penetrate deeper into soils due to its short half-life. The maximum mass activity density of {sup 7}Be is found at the point of input of the radionuclide, i.e. at the surface of the soil column, showing a exponential distribution profile typical of a purely diffusive transport. Many studies applying the advection dispersion models have been reported in the literature in order to modelling the transport of {sup 137}Cs in soils. On them, the models are used to achieve information of the mechanisms that govern the transport, i. e. the model is used to explain the soil profile of radionuclide. The effective dispersion coefficient and the apparent advection velocity of radionuclide in soil are also obtained by fitting the analytical solution of the model equation to measured depth distributions of the radionuclide. In this work, the advective dispersive transport model with linear sorption is used to analyze the vertical migration process of {sup 7}Be in soils of undisturbed or reference sites. The deposition history is approximated by pulse-like input functions and time dependent analytical solution of equation model is obtained. The values of dispersion coefficient and apparent advection velocity obtained
Model independent dispersion approach to proton Compton scattering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caprini, I.; Radescu, E.E.
1980-12-01
The proton Compton scattering at low and intermediate energies is studied by means of a dispersion framework which exploits in an optimal way the (fixed momentum transfer) analyticity properties of the amplitudes in conjunction with the consequences of the (s-channel) unitarity. The mathematical background of the work consists of methods specific to boundary value problems for analytic vector-valued functions and interpolation theory. In comparison with previous related work, the external problems to be solved now are much more difficult because of the inclusion of the photoproduction input and also lead to additional computational complications. The lower bounds on the differential cross-section, obtained without any reference to subtractions and annihilation channel contributions, appear sufficiently restrictive to evidentiate rigorously some inconsistencies between results of single pion photoproduction multipole extractions and proton Compton scattering data. (author)
Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.
2017-12-01
The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.
Modeling compressible multiphase flows with dispersed particles in both dense and dilute regimes
McGrath, T.; St. Clair, J.; Balachandar, S.
2018-05-01
Many important explosives and energetics applications involve multiphase formulations employing dispersed particles. While considerable progress has been made toward developing mathematical models and computational methodologies for these flows, significant challenges remain. In this work, we apply a mathematical model for compressible multiphase flows with dispersed particles to existing shock and explosive dispersal problems from the literature. The model is cast in an Eulerian framework, treats all phases as compressible, is hyperbolic, and satisfies the second law of thermodynamics. It directly applies the continuous-phase pressure gradient as a forcing function for particle acceleration and thereby retains relaxed characteristics for the dispersed particle phase that remove the constituent material sound velocity from the eigenvalues. This is consistent with the expected characteristics of dispersed particle phases and can significantly improve the stable time-step size for explicit methods. The model is applied to test cases involving the shock and explosive dispersal of solid particles and compared to data from the literature. Computed results compare well with experimental measurements, providing confidence in the model and computational methods applied.
Calibration of Discrete Random Walk (DRW) Model via G.I Taylor's Dispersion Theory
Javaherchi, Teymour; Aliseda, Alberto
2012-11-01
Prediction of particle dispersion in turbulent flows is still an important challenge with many applications to environmental, as well as industrial, fluid mechanics. Several models of dispersion have been developed to predict particle trajectories and their relative velocities, in combination with a RANS-based simulation of the background flow. The interaction of the particles with the velocity fluctuations at different turbulent scales represents a significant difficulty in generalizing the models to the wide range of flows where they are used. We focus our attention on the Discrete Random Walk (DRW) model applied to flow in a channel, particularly to the selection of eddies lifetimes as realizations of a Poisson distribution with a mean value proportional to κ / ɛ . We present a general method to determine the constant of this proportionality by matching the DRW model dispersion predictions for fluid element and particle dispersion to G.I Taylor's classical dispersion theory. This model parameter is critical to the magnitude of predicted dispersion. A case study of its influence on sedimentation of suspended particles in a tidal channel with an array of Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines highlights the dependency of results on this time scale parameter. Support from US DOE through the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center, a UW-OSU partnership.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Su, Yan; Chan, Lai-Cheong; Shu, Lianjie; Tsui, Kwok-Leung
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► We develop online prediction models for solar photovoltaic system performance. ► The proposed prediction models are simple but with reasonable accuracy. ► The maximum monthly average minutely efficiency varies 10.81–12.63%. ► The average efficiency tends to be slightly higher in winter months. - Abstract: This paper develops new real time prediction models for output power and energy efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These models were validated using measured data of a grid-connected solar PV system in Macau. Both time frames based on yearly average and monthly average are considered. It is shown that the prediction model for the yearly/monthly average of the minutely output power fits the measured data very well with high value of R 2 . The online prediction model for system efficiency is based on the ratio of the predicted output power to the predicted solar irradiance. This ratio model is shown to be able to fit the intermediate phase (9 am to 4 pm) very well but not accurate for the growth and decay phases where the system efficiency is near zero. However, it can still serve as a useful purpose for practitioners as most PV systems work in the most efficient manner over this period. It is shown that the maximum monthly average minutely efficiency varies over a small range of 10.81% to 12.63% in different months with slightly higher efficiency in winter months.
Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; Distefano, Joseph J
2011-09-01
When examining the structural identifiability properties of dynamic system models, some parameters can take on an infinite number of values and yet yield identical input-output data. These parameters and the model are then said to be unidentifiable. Finding identifiable combinations of parameters with which to reparameterize the model provides a means for quantitatively analyzing the model and computing solutions in terms of the combinations. In this paper, we revisit and explore the properties of an algorithm for finding identifiable parameter combinations using Gröbner Bases and prove useful theoretical properties of these parameter combinations. We prove a set of M algebraically independent identifiable parameter combinations can be found using this algorithm and that there exists a unique rational reparameterization of the input-output equations over these parameter combinations. We also demonstrate application of the procedure to a nonlinear biomodel. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Simulation of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides using an Eulerian-Lagrangian modelling system.
Basit, Abdul; Espinosa, Francisco; Avila, Ruben; Raza, S; Irfan, N
2008-12-01
In this paper we present an atmospheric dispersion scenario for a proposed nuclear power plant in Pakistan involving the hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides. For this, a concept involving a Lagrangian stochastic particle model (LSPM) coupled with an Eulerian regional atmospheric modelling system (RAMS) is used. The atmospheric turbulent dispersion of radionuclides (represented by non-buoyant particles/neutral traces) in the LSPM is modelled by applying non-homogeneous turbulence conditions. The mean wind velocities governed by the topography of the region and the surface fluxes of momentum and heat are calculated by the RAMS code. A moving least squares (MLS) technique is introduced to calculate the concentration of radionuclides at ground level. The numerically calculated vertical profiles of wind velocity and temperature are compared with observed data. The results obtained demonstrate that in regions of complex terrain it is not sufficient to model the atmospheric dispersion of particles using a straight-line Gaussian plume model, and that by utilising a Lagrangian stochastic particle model and regional atmospheric modelling system a much more realistic estimation of the dispersion in such a hypothetical scenario was ascertained. The particle dispersion results for a 12 h ground release show that a triangular area of about 400 km(2) situated in the north-west quadrant of release is under radiological threat. The particle distribution shows that the use of a Gaussian plume model (GPM) in such situations will yield quite misleading results.
Modeling the generation and dispersion of odors from mushroom composting facilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heinemann, P.; Wahanik, D.
1998-01-01
An odor source generation model and an odor dispersion model were developed to predict the local distribution of odors emanating from mushroom composting facilities. The odor source generation model allowed for simulation of various composting wharf configurations and odor source strengths. This model was linked to a Gaussian plume diffusion model that predicted odor dispersion. Dimethyl disulfide production at a rate of 1760 micrograms/h was simulated by the source generation model and six different atmospheric conditions were analyzed to demonstrate the effect of wind speed, atmospheric stability, and source generation on the dispersion of this odor producing compound. Detectable levels of dimethyl disulfide were predicted to range from less than 100 m from the source during very unstable conditions to almost 5000 m during very stable conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; Bellasio, R.; Graziani, G.
2001-01-01
The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises
Dussauze, Matthieu; Pichavant-Rafini, Karine; Belhomme, Marc; Buzzacott, Peter; Privat, Killian; Le Floch, Stéphane; Lemaire, Philippe; Theron, Michaël
2017-01-01
Data on the biological impact of oil dispersion in deep-sea environment are scarce. Hence, the aim of this study was to evaluate the potential interest of a pressure challenge as a new experimental approach for the assessment of consequences of chemically dispersed oil, followed by a high hydrostatic pressure challenge. This work was conducted on a model fish: juvenile Dicentrarchus labrax. Seabass were exposed for 48 h to dispersant alone (nominal concentration (NC) = 4 mg L -1 ), mechanically dispersed oil (NC = 80 mg L -1 ), two chemically dispersed types of oil (NC = 50 and 80 mg L -1 with a dispersant/oil ratio of 1/20), or kept in clean seawater. Fish were then exposed for 30 min at a simulated depth of 1350 m, corresponding to pressure of 136 absolute atmospheres (ATA). The probability of fish exhibiting normal activity after the pressure challenge significantly increased from 0.40 to 0.55 when they were exposed to the dispersant but decreased to 0.26 and 0.11 in the case of chemical dispersion of oil (at 50 and 80 mg L -1 , respectively). The chemical dispersion at 80 mg L -1 also induced an increase in probability of death after the pressure challenge (from 0.08 to 0.26). This study clearly demonstrates the ability of a pressure challenge test to give evidence of the effects of a contaminant on the capacity of fish to face hydrostatic pressure. It opens new perspectives on the analysis of the biological impact of chemical dispersion of oil at depth, especially on marine species performing vertical migrations.
Air Pollution Dispersion Modeling of Abadan oil Refinery Using SCREEN3
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hedayati Rad, F.; Salman-Mahini, A.; Mirkarimi, H.
2016-01-01
Air pollution is a major problem that has been recognized throughout the world. Refineriers normally create environmental pollution through emissions of pollutants gaseous from a variety of sources. Analysing air pollution distribution and dispersion can help in reducing the negative effects. In this study NO_X and SO_2 emissions and distributions were investigated for Abadan oil refinery using SCREEN3 software. In this softweare, wind speed and direction, air temperature, location and physical characteristics of chimnies and atmospheric stability were taken into consideration.The concentration of pollutants in different distances from the stacks in the range 25 km were predicted and mapped in Idrisi software. The output from software SCREEN3 for emissions from stacks were also examined and compared with the standard output of the refineries. According to our results, the concentration of pollutants in summer and autumn seasons exceeds of the environmental standards.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guangyi Zhang
2016-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester’s three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.
Harvey, Natalie J.; Huntley, Nathan; Dacre, Helen F.; Goldstein, Michael; Thomson, David; Webster, Helen
2018-01-01
Following the disruption to European airspace caused by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 there has been a move towards producing quantitative predictions of volcanic ash concentration using volcanic ash transport and dispersion simulators. However, there is no formal framework for determining the uncertainties of these predictions and performing many simulations using these complex models is computationally expensive. In this paper a Bayesian linear emulation approach is applied to the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) to better understand the influence of source and internal model parameters on the simulator output. Emulation is a statistical method for predicting the output of a computer simulator at new parameter choices without actually running the simulator. A multi-level emulation approach is applied using two configurations of NAME with different numbers of model particles. Information from many evaluations of the computationally faster configuration is combined with results from relatively few evaluations of the slower, more accurate, configuration. This approach is effective when it is not possible to run the accurate simulator many times and when there is also little prior knowledge about the influence of parameters. The approach is applied to the mean ash column loading in 75 geographical regions on 14 May 2010. Through this analysis it has been found that the parameters that contribute the most to the output uncertainty are initial plume rise height, mass eruption rate, free tropospheric turbulence levels and precipitation threshold for wet deposition. This information can be used to inform future model development and observational campaigns and routine monitoring. The analysis presented here suggests the need for further observational and theoretical research into parameterisation of atmospheric turbulence. Furthermore it can also be used to inform the most important parameter perturbations for a small operational
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. J. Harvey
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Following the disruption to European airspace caused by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 there has been a move towards producing quantitative predictions of volcanic ash concentration using volcanic ash transport and dispersion simulators. However, there is no formal framework for determining the uncertainties of these predictions and performing many simulations using these complex models is computationally expensive. In this paper a Bayesian linear emulation approach is applied to the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME to better understand the influence of source and internal model parameters on the simulator output. Emulation is a statistical method for predicting the output of a computer simulator at new parameter choices without actually running the simulator. A multi-level emulation approach is applied using two configurations of NAME with different numbers of model particles. Information from many evaluations of the computationally faster configuration is combined with results from relatively few evaluations of the slower, more accurate, configuration. This approach is effective when it is not possible to run the accurate simulator many times and when there is also little prior knowledge about the influence of parameters. The approach is applied to the mean ash column loading in 75 geographical regions on 14 May 2010. Through this analysis it has been found that the parameters that contribute the most to the output uncertainty are initial plume rise height, mass eruption rate, free tropospheric turbulence levels and precipitation threshold for wet deposition. This information can be used to inform future model development and observational campaigns and routine monitoring. The analysis presented here suggests the need for further observational and theoretical research into parameterisation of atmospheric turbulence. Furthermore it can also be used to inform the most important parameter perturbations
Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milliez, Maya
2006-01-01
Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Xiuli; Moreno, Blanca; García, Ana Salomé
2016-01-01
A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-IO model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. - Highlights: • Forecasting System Using Grey Models combined with Input-Output Models is proposed. • Primary energy consumption in Spain is used to validate the model. • The grey-based combined model has good forecasting performance. • Natural gas will represent the majority of the total of primary energy consumption. • Concerns about security of supply, energy cost and industry competitiveness are raised.
Does the DHET research output subsidy model penalise high-citation publication? A case study
Yolande X. Harley; Esmari Huysamen; Carlette Hlungwani; Tania S. Douglas
2016-01-01
South African universities are awarded annual subsidy from the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) based on their research publication output. Journal article subsidy is based on the number of research publications in DHET-approved journals as well as the proportional contribution of authors from the university. Co-authorship with other institutions reduces the subsidy received by a university, which may be a disincentive to collaboration. Inter-institutional collaboration may ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klukas, M.H.; Davis, P.A.
2000-01-01
AECL is undertaking the validation of ADDAM, an atmospheric dispersion and dose code based on the Canadian Standards Association model CSA N288.2. The key component of the validation program involves comparison of model predicted and measured vertical and lateral dispersion parameters, effective release height and air concentrations. A wind tunnel study of the dispersion of exhaust gases from the CANDU complex at Wolsong, Korea provides test data for dispersion over uniform and complex terrain. The test data are for distances close enough to the release points to evaluate the model for exclusion area boundaries (EAB) as small as 500 m. Lateral and vertical dispersion is described well for releases over uniform terrain but the model tends to over-predict these parameters for complex terrain. Both plume rise and entrainment are modelled conservatively and the way they are combined in the model produces conservative estimates of the effective release height for low and high wind speeds. Estimates for the medium wind speed case (50-m wind speed, 3.8 ms -1 ) are conservative when the correction for entrainment is made. For the highest ground-level concentrations, those of greatest interest in a safety analysis, 82% of the predictions were within a factor 2 of the observed values. The model can be used with confidence to predict air concentrations of exhaust gases at the Wolsong site for neutral conditions, even for flows over the hills to the west, and is unlikely to substantially under-predict concentrations. (author)
Modeling Smoke Plume-Rise and Dispersion from Southern United States Prescribed Burns with Daysmoke
G L Achtemeier; S L Goodrick; Y Liu; F Garcia-Menendez; Y Hu; M. Odman
2011-01-01
We present Daysmoke, an empirical-statistical plume rise and dispersion model for simulating smoke from prescribed burns. Prescribed fires are characterized by complex plume structure including multiple-core updrafts which makes modeling with simple plume models difficult. Daysmoke accounts for plume structure in a three-dimensional veering/sheering atmospheric...
Traveling waves in a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and nonlinear incidence
Zhang, Shou-Peng; Yang, Yun-Rui; Zhou, Yong-Hui
2018-01-01
This paper is concerned with traveling waves of a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and a general nonlinear incidence. The existence and nonexistence of traveling waves of the system are established respectively by Schauder's fixed point theorem and two-sided Laplace transform. It is also shown that the spread speed c is influenced by the dispersal rate of the infected individuals and the delay τ.
Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.
2012-12-01
General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Parsaie
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The study of rivers’ water quality is extremely important. This issue is more important when the rivers are one of the main sources of water supply for drinking, agriculture and industry. Unfortunately, river pollution has become one of the most important problems in the environment. When a source of pollution is transfused into the river, due to molecular motion, turbulence, and non-uniform velocity in cross-section of flow, it quickly spreads and covers all around the cross section and moves along the river with the flow. The governing equation of pollutant transmission in river is Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE. Computer simulation of pollution transmission in rives needs to solve the ADE by analytical or numerical approaches. The ADE has analytical solution under simple boundary and initial conditions but when the flow geometry and hydraulic conditions becomes more complex such as practical engineering problems, the analytical solutions are not applicable. Therefore, to solve this equation several numerical methods have been proposed. In this paper by getting the pollution transmission in the Severn River and Narew River was simulated. Materials and Methods: The longitudinal dispersion coefficient is proportional of properties of Fluid, hydraulic condition and the river geometry characteristics. For fluid properties the density and dynamic viscosity and for hydraulic condition, the velocity, flow depth, velocity and energy gradient slope and for river geometry the width of cross section and longitudinal slope can be mentioned. Several other parameters are influencive, but cannot be clearly measured such as sinuosity path and bed form of river. To derive the governed equation of pollution transmission in river, it is enough to consider an element of river and by using the continuity equation and Fick laws to balancing the inputs and outputs the pollution discharge. To calculate the dispersion coefficient several ways as
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evans, Philip M.; Mosleh-Shirazi, M. Amin; Harris, Emma J.; Seco, Joao
2006-01-01
A new model of the light output from single-crystal scintillators in megavoltage energy x-ray beams has been developed, based on the concept of a Lambertian light guide model (LLG). This was evaluated in comparison with a Monte Carlo (MC) model of optical photon transport, previously developed and reported in the literature, which was used as a gold standard. The LLG model was developed to enable optimization of scintillator detector design. In both models the dose deposition and light propagation were decoupled, the scintillators were cuboids, split into a series of cells as a function of depth, with Lambertian side and entrance faces, and a specular exit face. The signal in a sensor placed 1 and 1000 mm beyond the exit face was calculated. Cesium iodide (CSI) crystals of 1.5 and 3 mm square cross section and 1, 5, and 10 mm depth were modeled. Both models were also used to determine detector signal and optical gain factor as a function of CsI scintillator thickness, from 2 to 10 mm. Results showed a variation in light output with position of dose deposition of a factor of up to approximately 5, for long, thin scintillators (such as 10x1.5x1.5 mm 3 ). For short, fat scintillators (such as 1x3x3 mm 3 ) the light output was more uniform with depth. MC and LLG generally agreed to within 5%. Results for a sensor distance of 1 mm showed an increase in light output the closer the light originates to the exit face, while a distance of 1000 mm showed a decrease in light output the closer the light originates to the exit face. For a sensor distance of 1 mm, the ratio of signal for a 10 mm scintillator to that for a 2 mm scintillator was 1.98, whereas for the 1000 mm distance the ratio was 3.00. The ratio of quantum efficiency (QE) between 10 and 2 mm thicknesses was 4.62. We conclude that these models may be used for detector optimization, with the light guide model suitable for parametric study
A model for the dispersion of pollution from a road network
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Haerkoenen, J.; Valkonen, E.; Kukkonen, J.; Rantakarans, E.; Lahtinen, K.; Karppinen, A.; Jalkanen, L.
1996-12-31
A mathematical model for predicting the dispersion of pollution from a road network, for use in a regulatory context is presented in the report. The model includes an emission model a treatment of the meteorological and background concentration time series, a dispersion model statistical analysis of the computed time series of concentrations and a Windows-based user interface. The dispersion model is based on a partly analytical solution of the Gaussian diffusion equation for a finite dine source. It allows for any wind direction with respect to the road. The dispersion parameters are modelled in a form which facilitates the use of the meteorological preprocessor. The chemical transformation is modelled by using a modified form of the discrete parcel method, developed in this study. The chemistry model contains the basic reactions of nitrogen oxides, oxygen and ozone. An operational model for evaluating the meteorological and background concentration data for the model applications is also presented. The model does not take into account the influence of buildings and inhomogeneous terrain on the dispersion processes. The validity of the mathematical solution presented has been tested against a more detailed numerical model. The overall differences are reasonable, and the solution can be used with confidence in an operational model. The program has been implemented on a personal computer and on a main-frame computer, and in the later case also executed on a Cray C94 supercomputer. The validation of the model against experimental data is reported elsewhere. Testing of the model near a major road Turunvaeylae Finland 1994 showed that the overall agreement of the measured and predicted values for NO{sub x} and NO{sub 2} concentrations was fairly good 30 refs.
Carpentieri, Matteo; Kumar, Prashant; Robins, Alan
2011-03-01
Understanding the transformation of nanoparticles emitted from vehicles is essential for developing appropriate methods for treating fine scale particle dynamics in dispersion models. This article provides an overview of significant research work relevant to modelling the dispersion of pollutants, especially nanoparticles, in the wake of vehicles. Literature on vehicle wakes and nanoparticle dispersion is reviewed, taking into account field measurements, wind tunnel experiments and mathematical approaches. Field measurements and modelling studies highlighted the very short time scales associated with nanoparticle transformations in the first stages after the emission. These transformations strongly interact with the flow and turbulence fields immediately behind the vehicle, hence the need of characterising in detail the mixing processes in the vehicle wake. Very few studies have analysed this interaction and more research is needed to build a basis for model development. A possible approach is proposed and areas of further investigation identified. Copyright Â© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A model for long-distance dispersal of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)
Westbrook, John K.; Eyster, Ritchie S.; Allen, Charles T.
2011-07-01
The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis (Boheman), has been a major insect pest of cotton production in the US, accounting for yield losses and control costs on the order of several billion US dollars since the introduction of the pest in 1892. Boll weevil eradication programs have eliminated reproducing populations in nearly 94%, and progressed toward eradication within the remaining 6%, of cotton production areas. However, the ability of weevils to disperse and reinfest eradicated zones threatens to undermine the previous investment toward eradication of this pest. In this study, the HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model was used to simulate daily wind-aided dispersal of weevils from the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Simulated weevil dispersal was compared with weekly capture of weevils in pheromone traps along highway trap lines between the LRGV and the South Texas / Winter Garden zone of the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Program. A logistic regression model was fit to the probability of capturing at least one weevil in individual pheromone traps relative to specific values of simulated weevil dispersal, which resulted in 60.4% concordance, 21.3% discordance, and 18.3% ties in estimating captures and non-captures. During the first full year of active eradication with widespread insecticide applications in 2006, the dispersal model accurately estimated 71.8%, erroneously estimated 12.5%, and tied 15.7% of capture and non-capture events. Model simulations provide a temporal risk assessment over large areas of weevil reinfestation resulting from dispersal by prevailing winds. Eradication program managers can use the model risk assessment information to effectively schedule and target enhanced trapping, crop scouting, and insecticide applications.
Visual plumes coastal dispersion modeling in southwest Sabah ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In theory, the dilution capacity of open waters, particularly coastal areas, straits and oceans are enormous. This means that for surface and sub-merged ... Prior to the modeling exercise, field data pertaining to ambient water quality, hydraulic characteristics and tide patterns were collected. The modeling results indicated that ...
A water wave model with horizontal circulation and accurate dispersion
Cotter, C.; Bokhove, Onno
We describe a new water wave model which is variational, and combines a depth-averaged vertical (component of) vorticity with depth-dependent potential flow. The model facilitates the further restriction of the vertical profile of the velocity potential to n-th order polynomials or a finite element
Numerical Models of Sewage Dispersion and Statistica Bathing Water Standards
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Ole; Larsen, Torben
1991-01-01
As bathing water standards usually are founded in statistical methods, the numerical models used in outfall design should reflect this. A statistical approach, where stochastic variations in source strength and bacterial disappearance is incorporated into a numerical dilution model is presented. ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bustamante C, Paula M.; Ortiz R, Marcela A.
1996-01-01
Based on a dispersion model, an accidental release of radioactive material to the atmosphere was simulated. To evaluate the consequences of the accidental release it was used the P C COSYMA program (KfK and NRPB). The atmospheric dispersion model was MUSEMET, a segmented Gaussian plume model which requires information on meteorological conditions for a period of one year. This study was carried out to determine the plume's behavior and path, and to define protective actions. The meteorological analysis shows an airflow from the WSW and a channeling flow from the S E at night, due to topographical influences. (author)
A Semi-Analytical Model for Dispersion Modelling Studies in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer
Gupta, A.; Sharan, M.
2017-12-01
The severe impact of harmful air pollutants has always been a cause of concern for a wide variety of air quality analysis. The analytical models based on the solution of the advection-diffusion equation have been the first and remain the convenient way for modeling air pollutant dispersion as it is easy to handle the dispersion parameters and related physics in it. A mathematical model describing the crosswind integrated concentration is presented. The analytical solution to the resulting advection-diffusion equation is limited to a constant and simple profiles of eddy diffusivity and wind speed. In practice, the wind speed depends on the vertical height above the ground and eddy diffusivity profiles on the downwind distance from the source as well as the vertical height. In the present model, a method of eigen-function expansion is used to solve the resulting partial differential equation with the appropriate boundary conditions. This leads to a system of first order ordinary differential equations with a coefficient matrix depending on the downwind distance. The solution of this system, in general, can be expressed in terms of Peano-baker series which is not easy to compute, particularly when the coefficient matrix becomes non-commutative (Martin et al., 1967). An approach based on Taylor's series expansion is introduced to find the numerical solution of first order system. The method is applied to various profiles of wind speed and eddy diffusivities. The solution computed from the proposed methodology is found to be efficient and accurate in comparison to those available in the literature. The performance of the model is evaluated with the diffusion datasets from Copenhagen (Gryning et al., 1987) and Hanford (Doran et al., 1985). In addition, the proposed method is used to deduce three dimensional concentrations by considering the Gaussian distribution in crosswind direction, which is also evaluated with diffusion data corresponding to a continuous point source.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nillius, Peter, E-mail: nillius@mi.physics.kth.se; Klamra, Wlodek; Danielsson, Mats [Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm SE-100 44 (Sweden); Sibczynski, Pawel [National Centre for Nuclear Research, Otwock 05-400 (Poland); Sharma, Diksha; Badano, Aldo [Division of Imaging, Diagnostics, and Software Reliability, Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA, Silver Spring, Maryland 20993 (United States)
2015-02-15
Purpose: The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. Methods: The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridMANTIS, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. Results: The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV{sup −1} while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV{sup −1}. The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the
Dispersion Models to Forecast Traffic-related Emissions in Urban Areas
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Davide Scannapieco
2011-11-01
Full Text Available Down the centuries, a direct link had been developed between increase in mobility and increase in wealth. On the other hand, air emission of greenhouse gases (GHG due to vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines can be regarded as a negative pressure over the environment. In the coming decades, road transport is likely to remain a significant contributor to air pollution in cities. Many urban trips cover distances of less than 6 km. Since the effectiveness of catalytic converters in the initial minutes of engine operation is small, the average emission per distance driven is very high in urban areas. Also, poorly maintained vehicles that lack exhaust aftertreatment systems are responsible for a major part of pollutant emissions. Therefore in urban areas, where higher concentrations of vehicles can be easily found, air pollution represents a critical issue, being it related with both environment and human health protection: in truth, research in recent decades consistently indicates the adverse effects of outdoor air pollution on human health, and the evidence points to air pollution stemming from transport as an important contributor to these effects. Several institutions (EEA, USEPA, etc. focused their interest in dispersion models because of their potential effectiveness to forecast atmospheric pollution. Furthermore, air micropollutants such as Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds (PAH and Metallic Trace Elements (MTE are traffic-related and although very low concentrations their dispersion is a serious issue. However, dispersion models are usefully implemented to better manage this estimation problem. Nonetheless, policy makers and land managers have to deal with model selection, taking into account that several dispersion models are available, each one of them focused on specific goals (e.g., wind transport of pollutants, land morphology implementation, evaluation of micropollutants transport, etc.; a further aspect to be considered is
A Deformation Model of TRU Metal Dispersion Fuel Rod for HYPER
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Byoung Oon; Hwang, Woan; Park, Won S.
2002-01-01
Deformation analysis in fuel rod design is essential to assure adequate fuel performance and integrity under irradiation conditions. An in-reactor performance computer code for a dispersion fuel rod is being developed in the conceptual design stage of blanket fuel for HYPER. In this paper, a mechanistic deformation model was developed and the model was installed into the DIMAC program. The model was based on the elasto-plasticity theory and power-law creep theory. The preliminary deformation calculation results for (TRU-Zr)-Zr dispersion fuel predicted by DIMAC were compared with those of silicide dispersion fuel predicted by DIFAIR. It appeared that the deformation levels for (TRU-Zr)-Zr dispersion fuel were relatively higher than those of silicide fuel. Some experimental tests including in-pile and out-pile experiments are needed for verifying the predictive capability of the DIMAC code. An in-reactor performance analysis computer code for blanket fuel is being developed at the conceptual design stage of blanket fuel for HYPER. In this paper, a mechanistic deformation model was developed and the model was installed into the DIMAC program. The model was based on the elasto-plasticity theory and power-law creep theory. The preliminary deformation calculation results for (TRUZr)- Zr dispersion fuel predicted by DIMAC were compared with those of silicide dispersion fuel predicted by DIFAIR. It appears that the deformation by swelling within fuel meat is very large for both fuels, and the major deformation mechanism at cladding is creep. The swelling strain is almost constant within the fuel meat, and is assumed to be zero in the cladding made of HT9. It is estimated that the deformation levels for (TRU-Zr)-Zr dispersion fuel were relatively higher than those of silicide fuel, and the dispersion fuel performance may be limited by swelling. But the predicted volume change of the (TRU-Zr)-Zr dispersion fuel models is about 6.1% at 30 at.% burnup. The value of cladding
DART model for thermal conductivity of U3Si2 Aluminum dispersion fuel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rest, J.; Snelgrove, J.L.; Hofman, G.L.
2004-01-01
This paper describes the primary physical models that form the basis of the DART model for calculating irradiation-induced changes in the thermal conductivity of aluminum dispersion fuel. DART calculations of fuel swelling, pore closure, and thermal conductivity are compared with measured values. (author)
DART model for thermal conductivity of U3Si2 aluminum dispersion fuel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rest, J.; Snelgrove, J.L.; Hofman, G.L.
1995-09-01
This paper describes the primary physical models that form the basis of the DART model for calculating irradiation-induced changes in the thermal conductivity of aluminium dispersion fuel. DART calculations of fuel swelling, pore closure, and thermal conductivity are compared with measured values
Modeling Dispersion of Chemical-Biological Agents in Three Dimensional Living Space
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
William S. Winters
2002-01-01
This report documents a series of calculations designed to demonstrate Sandia's capability in modeling the dispersal of chemical and biological agents in complex three-dimensional spaces. The transport of particles representing biological agents is modeled in a single room and in several connected rooms. The influence of particle size, particle weight and injection method are studied
Development of numerical dispersion model for radioactive nuclei including resuspension processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiba, Masaru; Kurita, Susumu; Sasaki, Hidetaka
2003-01-01
Global-scale and local-scale dispersion model are developed combining to global and local scale meteorological forecasting model. By applying this system to another miner constituent such as mineral dust blowing by strong wind in arid region, this system shows very good performance to watch and predict the distribution of it. (author)
Randomly dispersed particle fuel model in the PSG Monte Carlo neutron transport code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leppaenen, J.
2007-01-01
High-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuels are composed of thousands of microscopic fuel particles, randomly dispersed in a graphite matrix. The modelling of such geometry is complicated, especially using continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes, which are unable to apply any deterministic corrections in the calculation. This paper presents the geometry routine developed for modelling randomly dispersed particle fuels using the PSG Monte Carlo reactor physics code. The model is based on the delta-tracking method, and it takes into account the spatial self-shielding effects and the random dispersion of the fuel particles. The calculation routine is validated by comparing the results to reference MCNP4C calculations using uranium and plutonium based fuels. (authors)
Sensitivity model study of regional mercury dispersion in the atmosphere
Gencarelli, Christian N.; Bieser, Johannes; Carbone, Francesco; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Matthias, Volker; Travnikov, Oleg; Yang, Xin; Pirrone, Nicola
2017-01-01
Atmospheric deposition is the most important pathway by which Hg reaches marine ecosystems, where it can be methylated and enter the base of food chain. The deposition, transport and chemical interactions of atmospheric Hg have been simulated over Europe for the year 2013 in the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project, performing 14 different model sensitivity tests using two high-resolution three-dimensional chemical transport models (CTMs), varying the anthropogenic emission datasets, atmospheric Br input fields, Hg oxidation schemes and modelling domain boundary condition input. Sensitivity simulation results were compared with observations from 28 monitoring sites in Europe to assess model performance and particularly to analyse the influence of anthropogenic emission speciation and the Hg0(g) atmospheric oxidation mechanism. The contribution of anthropogenic Hg emissions, their speciation and vertical distribution are crucial to the simulated concentration and deposition fields, as is also the choice of Hg0(g) oxidation pathway. The areas most sensitive to changes in Hg emission speciation and the emission vertical distribution are those near major sources, but also the Aegean and the Black seas, the English Channel, the Skagerrak Strait and the northern German coast. Considerable influence was found also evident over the Mediterranean, the North Sea and Baltic Sea and some influence is seen over continental Europe, while this difference is least over the north-western part of the modelling domain, which includes the Norwegian Sea and Iceland. The Br oxidation pathway produces more HgII(g) in the lower model levels, but overall wet deposition is lower in comparison to the simulations which employ an O3 / OH oxidation mechanism. The necessity to perform continuous measurements of speciated Hg and to investigate the local impacts of Hg emissions and deposition, as well as interactions dependent on land use and vegetation, forests, peat
Biphasic poly-dispersions modelling with applications in nuclear safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gimenez, Marcelo
2005-01-01
Many technological, scientific and environmental areas require of the understanding of multiple-phase, polydisperse systems.Particularly, in nuclear safety area, under hypothetical severe accident conditions, the fission products are released as gases and airborne particles.In the present thesis a contribution to the modeling of confined polydisperse systems (aerosols and liquid-gas) is presented. A family of one and two dimensional models was developed, describing the impact of the particles size on the aerosol evolution, taking into account the transport mechanisms by the carrying media, settling, lift, thermophoresis, diffusion, coagulation and condensation, considering the spatial dependence. The aerosol general dynamic balance equation -no-linear integral-differential equation-, is treated by means of the Moments Method, imposing a prescribed volume size distribution, and obtaining a model based in the first few moments.This yields to a relatively simple convection-diffusion set of coupled equations, that describes the evolution of the parameters that characterize the size distribution, with a low computational cost that allows to deal the heterogeneities of the spatial distribution of the aerosol.A complementary model, based also on the Moments Method, is developed to perform sensitivity analysis due to uncertainties in the constitutive equations and in the input parameters.The Perturbative Method, Differential-formalism, is used to develop a set of sensitivity equations, which are useful for designing experiments and theoretical studies.The model results are compared with exact solutions and numerical and experimental data extracted from the open literature.Various physical phenomena involved in different simulated case are analysed in detail.Particularly, the study is oriented to the analysis of the concentration gradients and the validation of the aerosol well-mixed hypothesis, typically used in present numerical codes.Deviations were observed from the
MESOI, an interactive atmospheric dispersion model for emergency response applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Glantz, C.S.
1983-12-01
MESOI is an interactive atmospheric despersion model that has been developed for use by the US Department of Energy, and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in responding to emergencies at nuclear facilities. MESOI uses both straight-line Gaussian plume and Lagrangian trajectory Gaussian puff models to estimate time-integrated ground-level air and surface concentrations. Puff trajectories are determined from temporally and spatially varying horizontal wind fields that are defined in 3 dimensions. Other processes treated in MESOI include dry deposition, wet deposition and radioactive decay. 9 references
A set of rapid-response models for pollutant dispersion assessments in southern Spain coastal waters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perianez, R.; Caravaca, F.
2010-01-01
Three rapid-response Lagrangian particle-tracking dispersion models have been developed for southern Spain coastal waters. The three domains cover the Gulf of Cadiz (Atlantic Ocean), the Alboran Sea (Mediterranean), and the Strait of Gibraltar with higher spatial resolution. The models are based on different hydrodynamic submodels, which are run in advance. Tides are calculated using a 2D barotropic model in the three cases. Models used to obtain the residual circulation depend on the physical oceanography of each region. Thus, two-layer models are applied to Gibraltar Strait and Alboran Sea and a 3D baroclinic model is used in the Gulf of Cadiz. Results from these models have been compared with observations to validate them and are then used by the particle-tracking models to calculate dispersion. Chemical, radioactive and oil spills may be simulated, incorporating specific processes for each kind of pollutant. Several application examples are provided.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pantic, Lana S.; Pavlović, Tomislav M.; Milosavljević, Dragana D.; Radonjic, Ivana S.; Radovic, Miodrag K.; Sazhko, Galina
2016-01-01
Five different models for calculating solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for sunny days with different solar radiation intensities and ambient temperatures are assessed in this paper. Thereafter, modeled values are compared to the experimentally obtained values for the horizontal solar module in Nis, Serbia. The criterion for determining the best model was based on the statistical analysis and the agreement between the calculated and the experimental values. The calculated values of solar module temperature are in good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones, with some variations over and under the measured values. The best agreement between calculated and experimentally obtained values was for summer months with high solar radiation intensity. The nonlinear model for calculating the output power is much better than the linear model and at the same time predicts better the total electrical energy generated by the solar module during the day. The nonlinear model for calculating the solar module efficiency predicts the efficiency higher than the STC (Standard Test Conditions) value of solar module efficiency for all conditions, while the linear model predicts the solar module efficiency very well. This paper provides a simple and efficient guideline to estimate relevant parameters of a monocrystalline silicon solar module under the moderate-continental climate conditions. - Highlights: • Linear model for solar module temperature gives accurate predictions for August. • The nonlinear model better predicts the solar module power than the linear model. • For calculating solar module power for Nis we propose the nonlinear model. • For calculating solar model efficiency for Nis we propose adoption of linear model. • The adopted models can be used for calculations throughout the year.
Modeling Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe: demographic implications
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Galeta, P.; Sládek, Vladimír; Sosna, D.; Brůžek, J.
2011-01-01
Roč. 146, č. 1 (2011), s. 104-115 ISSN 0002-9483 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/09/0589 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : population projections * stochastic modeling * total fertility rate * growth rate Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology Impact factor: 2.824, year: 2011
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burkes, Douglas E.; Casella, Andrew M.; Huber, Tanja K.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Hsu equation provides best thermal conductivity estimate of U–Mo dispersion fuel. • Simple model considering interaction layer formation was coupled with Hsu equation. • Interaction layer thermal conductivity is not the most important attribute. • Effective thermal conductivity is mostly influenced by interaction layer formation. • Fuel particle distribution also influences the effective thermal conductivity. - Abstract: The Global Threat Reduction Initiative Program continues to develop existing and new test reactor fuels to achieve the maximum attainable uranium loadings to support the conversion of a number of the world’s remaining high-enriched uranium fueled reactors to low-enriched uranium fuel. Currently, the program is focused on assisting with the development and qualification of a fuel design that consists of a uranium–molybdenum (U–Mo) alloy dispersed in an aluminum matrix. Thermal conductivity is an important consideration in determining the operational temperature of the fuel and can be influenced by interaction layer formation between the dispersed phase and matrix, porosity that forms during fabrication of the fuel plates or rods, and upon the concentration of the dispersed phase within the matrix. This paper develops and validates a simple model to study the influence of interaction layer formation, dispersed particle size, and volume fraction of dispersed phase in the matrix on the effective conductivity of the composite. The model shows excellent agreement with results previously presented in the literature. In particular, the thermal conductivity of the interaction layer does not appear to be as important in determining the effective conductivity of the composite, while formation of the interaction layer and subsequent consumption of the matrix reveals a rather significant effect. The effective thermal conductivity of the composite can be influenced by the dispersed particle distribution by minimizing interaction
Modelling of atmospheric dispersion in a complex medium and associated uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Demael, Emmanuel
2007-01-01
This research thesis addresses the study of the digital modelling of atmospheric dispersions. It aimed at validating the Mercure-Saturne tool used with a RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) approach within the frame of an impact study or of an accidental scenario on a nuclear site while taking buildings and ground relief into account, at comparing the Mercure-Saturne model with a more simple and less costly (in terms of computation time) Gaussian tool (the ADMS software, Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System), and at quantifying uncertainties related to the use of the Mercure-Saturne model. The first part introduces theoretical elements of atmosphere physics and of the atmospheric dispersion in a boundary layer, presents the Gaussian model and the Mercure-Saturne tool and its associated RANS approach. The second part reports the comparison of the Mercure-Saturne model with conventional Gaussian plume models. The third part reports the study of the atmospheric flow and dispersion about the Bugey nuclear site, based on a study performed in a wind tunnel. The fourth part reports the same kind of study for the Flamanville site. The fifth part reports the use of different approaches for the study of uncertainties in the case of the Bugey site: application of the Morris method (a screening method), and of the Monte Carlo method (quantification of the uncertainty and of the sensitivity of each uncertainty source) [fr
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.
1980-05-01
The most commonly used approach for estimating the atmospheric concentration and deposition of material downwind from its point of release is the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model. Two of the critical parameters in this model are sigma/sub y/ and sigma/sub z/, the horizontal and vertical dispersion parameters, respectively. A number of different sets of values for sigma/sub y/ and sigma/sub z/ have been determined empirically for different release heights and meteorological and terrain conditions. The computer code DWNWND, described in this report, is an interactive implementation of the Gaussian plume model. This code allows the user to specify any one of eight different sets of the empirically determined dispersion paramters. Using the selected dispersion paramters, ground-level normalized exposure estimates are made at any specified downwind distance. Computed values may be corrected for plume depletion due to deposition and for plume settling due to gravitational fall. With this interactive code, the user chooses values for ten parameters which define the source, the dispersion and deposition process, and the sampling point. DWNWND is written in FORTRAN for execution on a PDP-10 computer, requiring less than one second of central processor unit time for each simulation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Li
2015-08-01
Full Text Available At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites, this paper puts forward a “structure-and-type method” by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.
Xiao, WenBo; Nazario, Gina; Wu, HuaMing; Zhang, HuaMing; Cheng, Feng
2017-01-01
In this article, we introduced an artificial neural network (ANN) based computational model to predict the output power of three types of photovoltaic cells, mono-crystalline (mono-), multi-crystalline (multi-), and amorphous (amor-) crystalline. The prediction results are very close to the experimental data, and were also influenced by numbers of hidden neurons. The order of the solar generation power output influenced by the external conditions from smallest to biggest is: multi-, mono-, and amor- crystalline silicon cells. In addition, the dependences of power prediction on the number of hidden neurons were studied. For multi- and amorphous crystalline cell, three or four hidden layer units resulted in the high correlation coefficient and low MSEs. For mono-crystalline cell, the best results were achieved at the hidden layer unit of 8.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
WenBo Xiao
Full Text Available In this article, we introduced an artificial neural network (ANN based computational model to predict the output power of three types of photovoltaic cells, mono-crystalline (mono-, multi-crystalline (multi-, and amorphous (amor- crystalline. The prediction results are very close to the experimental data, and were also influenced by numbers of hidden neurons. The order of the solar generation power output influenced by the external conditions from smallest to biggest is: multi-, mono-, and amor- crystalline silicon cells. In addition, the dependences of power prediction on the number of hidden neurons were studied. For multi- and amorphous crystalline cell, three or four hidden layer units resulted in the high correlation coefficient and low MSEs. For mono-crystalline cell, the best results were achieved at the hidden layer unit of 8.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rest, J.; Hofman, G.L.
1997-01-01
The Dispersion Analysis Research Tool (DART) contains models for fission-gas-induced fuel swelling, interaction of fuel with the matrix aluminum, for the resultant reaction-product swelling, and for the calculation of the stress gradient within the fuel particle. The effects of an aluminide shell on fuel particle swelling are evaluated. Validation of the model is demonstrated by a comparison of DART calculations of fuel swelling of U 3 SiAl-Al and U 3 Si 2 -Al for various dispersion fuel element designs with the data
''POSEIDON'': one radioactive matter dispersion model in maritime environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raffestin, D.; Lepicard, S.
1995-02-01
The radio element filiation effect respect, during a spoil in maritime environment was necessary to implement the mathematical integration technologies aiming to optimize the speed calculation and memory. These choices allowed to treat the filiation on several descent levels with compartmental more exact models. Recent data on the fishing product sources and their destinations allow now to sharpen the results by radiological shock decomposition on the European Community countries. 2 refs., 20 figs., 11 tabs., 4 Appendixes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu Qin; Peng Xizhe; Wu Kaiya
2012-01-01
Based on the input–output model and the comparable price input–output tables, the current paper investigates the indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China in 1992–2005, and examines the impacts on the emissions using the structural decomposition method. The results demonstrate that the rise of the residential consumption level played a dominant role in the growth of residential indirect emissions. The persistent decline of the carbon emission intensity of industrial sectors presented a significant negative effect on the emissions. The change in the intermediate demand of industrial sectors resulted in an overall positive effect, except in the initial years. The increase in population prompted the indirect emissions to a certain extent; however, population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions. The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect, demonstrating the importance for China to control and slow down the increase in the emissions while in the process of optimizing the residential consumption structure. The results imply that the means for restructuring the economy and improving efficiency, rather than for lowering the consumption scale, should be adopted by China to achieve the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction. - Highlights: ► We build the input–output model of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption. ► We calculate the indirect emissions using the comparable price input–output tables. ► We examine the impacts on the indirect emissions using the structural decomposition method. ► The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect on the emissions. ► China's population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions.
Atmospheric Dispersion Simulation for Level 3 PSA at Ulchin Nuclear Site using a PUFF model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Seung Jun; Han, Seok-Jung; Jeong, Hyojoon; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-05-15
Air dispersion prediction is a key in the level 3 PSA to predict radiation releases into the environment for preparing an effective strategy for an evacuation as a basis of the emergency preparedness. To predict the atmospheric dispersion accurately, the specific conditions of the radiation release location should be considered. There are various level 3 PSA tools and MACSS2 is one of the widely used level 3 PSA tools in many countries including Korea. Due to the characteristics of environmental conditions in Korea, it should be demonstrated that environmental conditions of Korea nuclear sites can be appropriately illustrated by the tool. In Korea, because all nuclear power plants are located on coasts, sea and land breezes might be a significant factor. The objectives of this work is to simulate the atmospheric dispersion for Ulchin nuclear site in Korea using a PUFF model and to generate the data which can be used for the comparison with that of PLUME model. A nuclear site has own atmospheric dispersion characteristics. Especially in Korea, nuclear sites are located at coasts and it is expected that see and land breeze effects are relatively high. In this work, the atmospheric dispersion at Ulchin nuclear site was simulated to evaluate the effect of see and land breezes in four seasons. In the simulation results, it was observed that the wind direction change with time has a large effect on atmospheric dispersion. If the result of a PLUME model is more conservative than most severe case of a PUFF model, then the PLUME model could be used for Korea nuclear sites in terms of safety assessment.
Fallah-Shorshani, Masoud; Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne
2017-03-01
The development and use of dispersion models that simulate traffic-related air pollution in urban areas has risen significantly in support of air pollution exposure research. In order to accurately estimate population exposure, it is important to generate concentration surfaces that take into account near-road concentrations as well as the transport of pollutants throughout an urban region. In this paper, an integrated modelling chain was developed to simulate ambient Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) in a dense urban neighbourhood while taking into account traffic emissions, the regional background, and the transport of pollutants within the urban canopy. For this purpose, we developed a hybrid configuration including 1) a street canyon model, which simulates pollutant transfer along streets and intersections, taking into account the geometry of buildings and other obstacles, and 2) a Gaussian puff model, which resolves the transport of contaminants at the top of the urban canopy and accounts for regional meteorology. Each dispersion model was validated against measured concentrations and compared against the hybrid configuration. Our results demonstrate that the hybrid approach significantly improves the output of each model on its own. An underestimation appears clearly for the Gaussian model and street-canyon model compared to observed data. This is due to ignoring the building effect by the Gaussian model and undermining the contribution of other roads by the canyon model. The hybrid approach reduced the RMSE (of observed vs. predicted concentrations) by 16%-25% compared to each model on its own, and increased FAC2 (fraction of predictions within a factor of two of the observations) by 10%-34%.
Dispersive versus constant-geometry models of the neutron-208Pb mean field
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahaux, C.; Sartor, R.
1990-01-01
Phenomenological optical-model analyses of differential elastic scattering cross sections of neutrons by 208 Pb indicate that the radius of the real part of the potential decreases with increasing energy in the domain 4< E<40 MeV. On the other hand, the experimental total cross section is compatible with a real potential whose radial shape is energy independent. In order to clarify this situation, we compare a 'constant geometry' model whose real part has an energy-independent radial shape with a 'dispersive model' whose real part has an energy-dependent radial shape calculated from the dispersion relation which connects the real and imaginary parts of the field. The following three main features are considered. (i) The junction of the optical-model potential with the shell-model potential at negative energy. (ii) The agreement between the calculated total and differential cross sections and their experimental values. (iii) The extent to which the real part of the optical-model potential can be accurately determined by analyzing the total cross section only. It is concluded that the presently available experimental data support the existence of an energy dependence of the radial shape of the real potential, in keeping with the dispersion relation. A new parametrization of a 'dispersive' mean field is also presented. It does not involve more parameters than the previously published one but takes better account of the physical properties of the spectral functions; it is shown to improve the agreement between predicted and experimental scattering data. (orig.)
Fridgeirsdottir, Gudrun A; Harris, Robert J; Dryden, Ian L; Fischer, Peter M; Roberts, Clive J
2018-03-29
Solid dispersions can be a successful way to enhance the bioavailability of poorly soluble drugs. Here 60 solid dispersion formulations were produced using ten chemically diverse, neutral, poorly soluble drugs, three commonly used polymers, and two manufacturing techniques, spray-drying and melt extrusion. Each formulation underwent a six-month stability study at accelerated conditions, 40 °C and 75% relative humidity (RH). Significant differences in times to crystallization (onset of crystallization) were observed between both the different polymers and the two processing methods. Stability from zero days to over one year was observed. The extensive experimental data set obtained from this stability study was used to build multiple linear regression models to correlate physicochemical properties of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) with the stability data. The purpose of these models is to indicate which combination of processing method and polymer carrier is most likely to give a stable solid dispersion. Six quantitative mathematical multiple linear regression-based models were produced based on selection of the most influential independent physical and chemical parameters from a set of 33 possible factors, one model for each combination of polymer and processing method, with good predictability of stability. Three general rules are proposed from these models for the formulation development of suitably stable solid dispersions. Namely, increased stability is correlated with increased glass transition temperature ( T g ) of solid dispersions, as well as decreased number of H-bond donors and increased molecular flexibility (such as rotatable bonds and ring count) of the drug molecule.
A Platoon Dispersion Model Based on a Truncated Normal Distribution of Speed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming Wei
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Understanding platoon dispersion is critical for the coordination of traffic signal control in an urban traffic network. Assuming that platoon speed follows a truncated normal distribution, ranging from minimum speed to maximum speed, this paper develops a piecewise density function that describes platoon dispersion characteristics as the platoon moves from an upstream to a downstream intersection. Based on this density function, the expected number of cars in the platoon that pass the downstream intersection, and the expected number of cars in the platoon that do not pass the downstream point are calculated. To facilitate coordination in a traffic signal control system, dispersion models for the front and the rear of the platoon are also derived. Finally, a numeric computation for the coordination of successive signals is presented to illustrate the validity of the proposed model.
Model Equation for Acoustic Nonlinear Measurement of Dispersive Specimens at High Frequency
Zhang, Dong; Kushibiki, Junichi; Zou, Wei
2006-10-01
We present a theoretical model for acoustic nonlinearity measurement of dispersive specimens at high frequency. The nonlinear Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov (KZK) equation governs the nonlinear propagation in the SiO2/specimen/SiO2 multi-layer medium. The dispersion effect is considered in a special manner by introducing the frequency-dependant sound velocity in the KZK equation. Simple analytic solutions are derived by applying the superposition technique of Gaussian beams. The solutions are used to correct the diffraction and dispersion effects in the measurement of acoustic nonlinearity of cottonseed oil in the frequency range of 33-96 MHz. Regarding two different ultrasonic devices, the accuracies of the measurements are improved to ±2.0% and ±1.3% in comparison with ±9.8% and ±2.9% obtained from the previous plane wave model.
Wolfensberger, D.; Gires, A.; Berne, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.
2015-12-01
The resolution of operational numerical prediction models is typically of the order of a few kilometres meaning that small-scale features of precipitation can not be resolved explicitly. This creates the need for representative parametrizations of microphysical processes whose properties should be carefully analysed. In this study we will focus on the COSMO model which is a non-hydrostatic limited-area model, initially developed as the Lokal Model and used operationally in Switzerland and Germany. In its operational version, cloud microphysical processes are simulated with a one-moment bulk scheme where five hydrometeor classes are considered: cloud droplets, rain, ice crystals, snow, and graupel. A more sophisticated two-moment scheme is also available. The study will focus on two case studies: one in Payerne in western Switzerland in a relatively flat region and one in Davos in the eastern Swiss Alps in a more complex terrain.The objective of this work is to characterize the ability of the COSMO NWP model to reproduce the microphysics of precipitation across temporal and spatial scales as well as scaling variability. The characterization of COSMO outputs will rely on the Universal Multifractals framework, which allows to analyse and simulate geophysical fields extremely variabile over a wide range of scales with the help of a reduced number of parameters. First COSMO outputs are analysed; spatial multifractal analysis of 2D maps at various altitudes for each time steps are carried out for simulated solid, liquid, vapour and total water content. In general the fields exhibit a good quality of scaling on the whole range of available scales (2 km - 250 km), but some loss of scaling quality corresponding to the emergence of a scaling break are sometimes visible. This behaviour is not found at the same time or at the same altitude according to the water state and does not necessarily spread to the total water content. It is interpreted with the help of the underlying
Verhoef, Anne; Cook, Peter; Black, Emily; Macdonald, David; Sorensen, James
2017-04-01
This research addresses the terrestrial water balance for West Africa. Emphasis is on the prediction of groundwater recharge and how this may change in the future, which has relevance to the management of surface and groundwater resources. The study was conducted as part of the BRAVE research project, "Building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa - Second Phase", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRC Programme, Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro). We used model output data of water balance components (precipitation, surface and subsurface run-off, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content) from ERA-Interim/ERA-LAND reanalysis, CMIP5, and high resolution model runs with HadGEM3 (UPSCALE; Mizielinski et al., 2014), for current and future time-periods. Water balance components varied widely between the different models; variation was particularly large for sub-surface runoff (defined as drainage from the bottom-most soil layer of each model). In-situ data for groundwater recharge obtained from the peer-reviewed literature were compared with the model outputs. Separate off-line model sensitivity studies with key land surface models were performed to gain understanding of the reasons behind the model differences. These analyses were centered on vegetation, and soil hydraulic parameters. The modelled current and future recharge time series that had the greatest degree of confidence were used to examine the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage. Finally, the implications for water supply planning were assessed. Mizielinski, M.S. et al., 2014. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(4), pp.1629-1640.
Design basis for the operational modelling of the atmospheric dispersion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doury, A.
1987-10-01
Based on the latest practices at the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), we shall first present the basis elements used for a simple and adequate modelling method for assessing hypothetical atmospheric pollution from transient or continuous discharge with any given kinetics under various weather conditions which are not necessarily stationary or uniform, which are likely to occur even with little or no wind. Discharges shall be considered as sequences of instantaneous successive puffs. The parameters deduced experimentally or from observations are functions of the transfer time and cover all time and space scales. The restrictions of use are indicated, especially concerning heavy gases. Finally, simple formulas are proposed for concentrations and depositions so as to be able to make a rapid estimation of the orders of magnitude with almost no computation [fr
Design basis for the operational modelling of the atmospheric dispersion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doury, A.
1987-11-01
Based on the latest practices at the Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), we shall first present the basis elements used for a simple and adequate modelling method for assessing hypothetical atmospheric pollution from transient or continuous discharge with any given kinetics under various weather conditions which are not necessarily stationary or uniform, which are likely to occur even with little or no wind. Discharges shall be considered as sequences of instantaneous successive puffs. The parameters deduced experimentally or from observations are functions of the transfer time and cover all time and space scales. The restrictions of use are indicated, especially concerning heavy gases. Finally, simple formulas are proposed for concentrations and depositions so as to be able to make a rapid estimation of the orders of magnitude with almost no computation [fr
Silvestro, Daniele; Zizka, Alexander; Bacon, Christine D; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Salamin, Nicolas; Antonelli, Alexandre
2016-04-05
Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal-extinction-sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography. © 2016 The Author(s).
Dispersion-convolution model for simulating peaks in a flow injection system.
Pai, Su-Cheng; Lai, Yee-Hwong; Chiao, Ling-Yun; Yu, Tiing
2007-01-12
A dispersion-convolution model is proposed for simulating peak shapes in a single-line flow injection system. It is based on the assumption that an injected sample plug is expanded due to a "bulk" dispersion mechanism along the length coordinate, and that after traveling over a distance or a period of time, the sample zone will develop into a Gaussian-like distribution. This spatial pattern is further transformed to a temporal coordinate by a convolution process, and finally a temporal peak image is generated. The feasibility of the proposed model has been examined by experiments with various coil lengths, sample sizes and pumping rates. An empirical dispersion coefficient (D*) can be estimated by using the observed peak position, height and area (tp*, h* and At*) from a recorder. An empirical temporal shift (Phi*) can be further approximated by Phi*=D*/u2, which becomes an important parameter in the restoration of experimental peaks. Also, the dispersion coefficient can be expressed as a second-order polynomial function of the pumping rate Q, for which D*(Q)=delta0+delta1Q+delta2Q2. The optimal dispersion occurs at a pumping rate of Qopt=sqrt[delta0/delta2]. This explains the interesting "Nike-swoosh" relationship between the peak height and pumping rate. The excellent coherence of theoretical and experimental peak shapes confirms that the temporal distortion effect is the dominating reason to explain the peak asymmetry in flow injection analysis.
A random walk model to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide
Zhuo, Jun; Huang, Liuxing; Niu, Shengli; Xie, Honggang; Kuang, Feihong
2018-01-01
To investigate the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide in large-medium scale, a numerical simulation method based on random walk model for radionuclide atmospheric dispersion was established in the paper. The route of radionuclide migration and concentration distribution of radionuclide can be calculated out by using the method with the real-time or historical meteorological fields. In the simulation, a plume of radionuclide is treated as a lot of particles independent of each other. The particles move randomly by the fluctuations of turbulence, and disperse, so as to enlarge the volume of the plume and dilute the concentration of radionuclide. The dispersion of the plume over time is described by the variance of the particles. Through statistical analysis, the relationships between variance of the particles and radionuclide dispersion characteristics can be derived. The main mechanisms considered in the physical model are: (1) advection of radionuclide by mean air motion, (2) mixing of radionuclide by atmospheric turbulence, (3) dry and wet deposition, (4) disintegration. A code named RADES was developed according the method. And then, the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) in 1994 is simulated by the RADES and FLEXPART codes, the simulation results of the concentration distribution of tracer are in good agreement with the experimental data.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carpentieri, Matteo; Kumar, Prashant; Robins, Alan
2011-01-01
Understanding the transformation of nanoparticles emitted from vehicles is essential for developing appropriate methods for treating fine scale particle dynamics in dispersion models. This article provides an overview of significant research work relevant to modelling the dispersion of pollutants, especially nanoparticles, in the wake of vehicles. Literature on vehicle wakes and nanoparticle dispersion is reviewed, taking into account field measurements, wind tunnel experiments and mathematical approaches. Field measurements and modelling studies highlighted the very short time scales associated with nanoparticle transformations in the first stages after the emission. These transformations strongly interact with the flow and turbulence fields immediately behind the vehicle, hence the need of characterising in detail the mixing processes in the vehicle wake. Very few studies have analysed this interaction and more research is needed to build a basis for model development. A possible approach is proposed and areas of further investigation identified. - Research highlights: → Nanoparticle emissions experience very short transformation time scales. → Vehicle wakes need to be characterised to analyse nanoparticle dispersion. → Fast response measurements of nanoparticle evolution in vehicle wakes are very rare. → Wind tunnel methodologies can be further improved to include nanoparticle dynamics. → A simple mathematical approach has been proposed for future development. - The transformation of nanoparticles and the flow characteristics in both the near and far wake regions must be understood in order to develop mathematical models.
Numerical simulations of atmospheric dispersion of iodine-131 by different models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ádám Leelőssy
Full Text Available Nowadays, several dispersion models are available to simulate the transport processes of air pollutants and toxic substances including radionuclides in the atmosphere. Reliability of atmospheric transport models has been demonstrated in several recent cases from local to global scale; however, very few actual emission data are available to evaluate model results in real-life cases. In this study, the atmospheric dispersion of 131I emitted to the atmosphere during an industrial process was simulated with different models, namely the WRF-Chem Eulerian online coupled model and the HYSPLIT and the RAPTOR Lagrangian models. Although only limited data of 131I detections has been available, the accuracy of modeled plume direction could be evaluated in complex late autumn weather situations. For the studied cases, the general reliability of models has been demonstrated. However, serious uncertainties arise related to low level inversions, above all in case of an emission event on 4 November 2011, when an important wind shear caused a significant difference between simulated and real transport directions. Results underline the importance of prudent interpretation of dispersion model results and the identification of weather conditions with a potential to cause large model errors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mengistu Ketema
2016-06-01
Full Text Available In Ethiopia, the national agricultural research system has been generating and disseminating different agricultural technologies since its establishment in 1966. Although these technologies are meant to increase agricultural productivity, they have to be evaluated for their impact on production and for the benefit that the farmers get out of them. Hence, the main objectives of this study were to examine the impact of technological innovations on wheat production and to decompose the total change in wheat output resulting from the introduction of new technologies into its constituent parts. Cobb-Douglas production function was employed to estimate the regression coefficients under old variety growers, new variety growers, and pooled data cases. Output decomposition model was applied to decompose the total change in output into its constituent parts. The econometric results of this study indicated that, out of 55% of the observed productivity difference between old and new variety grown plots, technological change and change in associated input levels contributed about 24% and 31%, respectively. Of the 31% increment attributed to input use levels, an increased use of herbicides and fertilizers caused the biggest jump in the productivity of improved wheat varieties (15.5% and 11% respectively. The major implications included the need to exploit the full potential of new varieties using recommended input levels, strengthening the research system, fostering coordinated efforts among various actors in agricultural development, and strengthening the technology instrument in rural development and poverty reduction strategies of the country.
Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun
2017-07-01
In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lo, Y. E.; Yi, B. Y.; Ahn, S. D.; Kim, J. H.; Lee, S. W.; Choi, E. K.
2002-01-01
A practical calculation algorithm which calculates the relative output factor (ROF) for electron irregular shaped-field has been developed and evaluated the accuracy and the effectiveness of the algorithm by comparing the measurements and the calculation results for irregular fields used in clinic. The algorithm assumes that the electron dose can be express as sum of the primary source component and the scattered component from the shielding block. The primary source is assumed to have Gaussian distribution, while the scattered component follows the inverse square law. Depth and angular dependency of the primary and the scattered are ignored for maximizing the practicability by reducing the number of parameters for the algorithm. Electron dose can be calculated with three parameters such as, the effective source distance, the variance of primary source, and the scattering power of the block. The coefficients are obtained from the square shaped-block measurements and these are confirmed from the rectangular or irregular shaped-fields. The results showed less than 1.5% difference between the calculation and measurements. The algorithm is proved to be practical, since one can acquire the full parameters with minimum measurements and generates accurate results within the clinically acceptable range
Adaptive hierarchical grid model of water-borne pollutant dispersion
Borthwick, A. G. L.; Marchant, R. D.; Copeland, G. J. M.
Water pollution by industrial and agricultural waste is an increasingly major public health issue. It is therefore important for water engineers and managers to be able to predict accurately the local behaviour of water-borne pollutants. This paper describes the novel and efficient coupling of dynamically adaptive hierarchical grids with standard solvers of the advection-diffusion equation. Adaptive quadtree grids are able to focus on regions of interest such as pollutant fronts, while retaining economy in the total number of grid elements through selective grid refinement. Advection is treated using Lagrangian particle tracking. Diffusion is solved separately using two grid-based methods; one is by explicit finite differences, the other a diffusion-velocity approach. Results are given in two dimensions for pure diffusion of an initially Gaussian plume, advection-diffusion of the Gaussian plume in the rotating flow field of a forced vortex, and the transport of species in a rectangular channel with side wall boundary layers. Close agreement is achieved with analytical solutions of the advection-diffusion equation and simulations from a Lagrangian random walk model. An application to Sepetiba Bay, Brazil is included to demonstrate the method with complex flows and topography.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Freire, Fausto; Henriques, Carla Oliveira
2015-01-01
A multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model based on a hybrid Input–Output (IO) framework is presented. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental (E3) and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. This combination of multi-objective models with Input–Output Analysis (IOA) plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies on these systems. Firstly, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework that is extended to assess Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and the employment level. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP (gross domestic product) and employment levels, as well as the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. An interactive method enabling a progressive and selective search of non-dominated solutions with distinct characteristics and underlying trade-offs is utilized. Illustrative results indicate that the maximization of GDP and the employment levels lead to an increase of both energy consumption and GHG emissions, while the minimization of either GHG emissions or energy consumption cause negative impacts on GDP and employment. - Highlights: • A hybrid Input–Output multi-objective model is applied to the Brazilian economy. • Objective functions are GDP, employment level, energy consumption and GHG emissions. • Interactive search process identifies trade-offs between the competing objectives. • Positive correlations between GDP growth and employment. • Positive correlations between energy consumption and GHG emissions
Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...
Harmonisation within atmospheric dispersion modelling for regulatory purposes. Proceedings. Vol. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suppan, P.
2004-01-01
Dispersion modelling has proved to be a very effective tool to assess the environmental impact of human activities on air quality already at the early planning stage. Environmental assessments during planning are required by the EU directive 85/337/EEC. Only models can give detailed information on the distribution of pollutants with high spatial and temporal resolution, while they allow the decision-maker to devise a range of scenarios, in which the various processes determining the environmental impact can be easily simulated and changed. In June 1991, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission started an initiative on the sharing of information and possible harmonisation of new approaches to atmospheric dispersion modelling and model evaluation. This initiative has fostered a series of conferences that have been concerned with improvement of ''modelling culture'' in Europe. The 9 th International Conference on Harmonisation within atmospheric dispersion modelling for regulatory purposes in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, in Germany/ Bavaria, 1-4 June, 2004, will continue the efforts of the previous conferences. The conference has a role as a forum where users and decision-makers can bring their requirements to the attention of scientists. It is also a natural forum for discussing environmental issues related to the European union enlargement process. The scope of this conference is covered by the following topics: Validation and inter-comparison of models: Model evaluation methodology, experiences with implementation of EU directives; regulatory modelling, short distance dispersion modelling, urban scale and street canyon modelling: Meteorology and air quality, mesoscale meteorology and air quality modelling, environmental impact assessment: Air pollution management and decision support systems. (orig.)
Biomass burning aerosol over Romania using dispersion model and Calipso data
Nicolae, Victor; Dandocsi, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Luminita; Talianu, Camelia
2018-04-01
The purpose of the study is to analyze the seasonal variability, for the hot and cold seasons, of biomass burning aerosol observed over Romania using forward dispersion calculations based on FLEXPART model. The model was set up to use as input the MODIS fire data with a degree of confidence over 25% after transforming the emitted power in emission rate. The modelled aerosols in this setup was black carbon coated by organics. Distribution in the upper layers were compared to Calipso retrieval.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Aakesson, O. [Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)
1998-08-01
Recent proxy data obtained from ice core measurements, dendrochronology and valley glaciers provide important information on the evolution of the regional or local climate. General circulation models integrated over a long period of time could help to understand the (external and internal) forcing mechanisms of natural climate variability. For a systematic interpretation of in situ paleo proxy records, a combined method of dynamical and statistical modeling is proposed. Local 'paleo records' can be simulated from GCM output by first undertaking a model-consistent statistical downscaling and then using a process-based forward modeling approach to obtain the behavior of valley glaciers and the growth of trees under specific conditions. The simulated records can be compared to actual proxy records in order to investigate whether e.g. the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced by models and to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy records (with the main focus on the last millennium) can be represented. For statistical downscaling to local weather conditions, a multiple linear forward regression model is used. Daily sets of observed weather station data and various large-scale predictors at 7 pressure levels obtained from ECMWF reanalyses are used for development of the model. Daily data give the closest and most robust relationships due to the strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns. For some local variables, the performance of the model can be further increased by developing seasonal specific statistical relationships. The model is validated using both independent and restricted predictor data sets. The model is applied to a long integration of a mixed layer GCM experiment simulating pre-industrial climate variability. The dynamical-statistical local GCM output within a region around Nigardsbreen glacier, Norway is compared to nearby observed station data for the period 1868-1993. Patterns of observed
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly biophysical and fish model output of FEAST. Part of The Bering Sea Project, FEAST is a high resolution (~10km2) spatial model that uses a Regional Ocean...
Tracking the long-distance dispersal of marine organisms: sensitivity to ocean model resolution
Putman, Nathan F.; He, Ruoying
2013-01-01
Ocean circulation models are widely used to simulate organism transport in the open sea, where challenges of directly tracking organisms across vast spatial and temporal scales are daunting. Many recent studies tout the use of ‘high-resolution’ models, which are forced with atmospheric data on the scale of several hours and integrated with a time step of several minutes or seconds. However, in many cases, the model's outputs that are used to simulate organism movement have been averaged to co...
Litchford, Ron J.; Jeng, San-Mou
1992-01-01
The performance of a recently introduced statistical transport model for turbulent particle dispersion is studied here for rigid particles injected into a round turbulent jet. Both uniform and isosceles triangle pdfs are used. The statistical sensitivity to parcel pdf shape is demonstrated.
Numerical modeling of flow and pollutant dispersion in street canyons with tree planting
Balczó, M.; Gromke, C.B.; Ruck, B.
2009-01-01
Numerical simulations of the impact of tree planting on airflow and traffic pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons have been performed using the commercial CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code MISKAM. A k-e turbulence model including additional terms for the treatment of vegetation, has
A collection of mathematical models for dispersion in surface water and groundwater
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Codell, R.B.; Key, K.T.; Whelan, G.
1982-06-01
This report represents a collection of some of the manual procedures and simple computer programs used by the Hydrologic Engineering Section of the Division of Engineering, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, for computing the fate of routinely or accidentally released radionuclides in surface water and groundwater. All models are straightforward simulations of dispersion with constant coefficients in simple geometries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Falk, Anne Katrine Vinther; Gryning, Sven-Erik
1997-01-01
In this model for atmospheric dispersion particles are simulated by the Langevin Equation, which is a stochastic differential equation. It uses the probability density function (PDF) of the vertical velocity fluctuations as input. The PDF is constructed as an expansion after Hermite polynomials...
When Lagrangian stochastic models for turbulent dispersion are applied to complex flows, some type of ad hoc intervention is almost always necessary to eliminate unphysical behavior in the numerical solution. This paper discusses numerical considerations when solving the Langevin-based particle velo...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mistarhi, Qusai M.; Ryu, Ho Jin [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-05-15
U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel performed well at a low burn-up. However, higher burn-up and higher fission rate irradiation testing showed enhanced fuel meat swelling which was caused by high interaction layer growth and pore formation. The performance of the dispersion type fuel in the irradiation and un-irradiation environment is very important. During the fabrication of the dispersion type fuel an Interaction Layer (IL) is formed due to the inter-diffusion between the U-Mo fuel particles and the Al matrix which is an intermetallic compound (U,Mo)Alx. During irradiation, the IL becomes amorphous causing a further decrease in the thermal conductivity and an increase in the centerline temperature of the fuel meat. Several analytical models and numerical methods were developed to study the performance of the unirradiated U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel. Two analytical models were developed to study the performance of the irradiated U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel. In these models, the thermal conductivity of the IL was assumed to be constant. The properties of the irradiated U-Mo dispersion fuel have been investigated recently by Huber et al. The objective of this study is to develop a correlation for IL thermal conductivity during irradiation as a function of the temperature and fission density from the experimentally measured thermal conductivity of the irradiated U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel. The thermal conductivity of IL during irradiation was calculated from the experimentally measured data and a correlation was developed from the thermal conductivity of IL as a function of T and fission density.
Atmospheric aerosol dispersion models and their applications to environmental risk assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrzej Mazur
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Introduction. Numerical models of dispersion of atmospheric pollutants are widely used to forecast the spread of contaminants in the air and to analyze the effects of this phenomenon. The aim of the study is to investigate the possibilities and the quality of diagnosis and prediction of atmospheric transport of aerosols in the air using the dispersion model of atmospheric pollutants, developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM in Warsaw. Material and methods. A model of the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants, linked with meteorological models in a diagnostic mode, was used to simulate the transport of the cloud of aerosols released during the crash near the town of Ożydiw (Ukraine and of volcanic ash – during the volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland. Results. Possible directions of dispersion of pollutants in the air and its concentration in the atmosphere and deposition to the soil were assessed. The analysis of temporal variability of concentrations of aerosols in the atmosphere confirmed that the model developed at IMWM is an effective tool for diagnosis of air quality in the area of Poland as well as for determination of exposure duration to the aerosol clouds for different weather scenarios. Conclusions. The results are a confirmation of the thesis, that because in the environmental risk assessment, an important element is not only current information on the level of pollution concentrations, but also the time of exposure to pollution and forecast of these elements, and consequently the predicted effects on man or the environment in general; so it is necessary to use forecasting tools, similar to presented application. The dispersion model described in the paper is an operational tool for description, analysis and forecasting of emergency situations in case of emissions of hazardous substances.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muayad Al-Qaisy
2015-02-01
Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike
2012-01-01
Portuguese sites) a fire severity index under current conditions and under different technologies. The DESMICE model is informed by WB3 WOCAT database records, economic WB4 experimental results, additionally requested data on spatial variability of costs and benefits, and secondary data. It applies spatially...... multiple stakeholders in very different contexts into the modelling process, in order to enhance both the realism and relevance of outputs for policy and practice; b) site-selection modelling is being applied to land degradation mitigation to enable landscape-scale assessments of the most economically....... Biophysical models (e.g. PESERA) should be able to separate immediate and gradual aspects. Ongoing degradation in the without case is not yet implicitly considered. Analysis of robustness to climatic variability and prices is also essential. Finally, factors such as attitude towards conservation and risk...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Williams, W.R.
1985-03-01
Calculational methods and computer programs for the analysis of source terms for postulated releases of UF{sub 6} are presented. Required thermophysical properties of UF{sub 6}, HF, and H{sub 2}O are described in detail. UF{sub 6} reacts with moisture in the ambient environment to form HF and H{sub 2}O. The coexistence of HF and H{sub 2}O significantly alters their pure component properties, and HF vapor polymerizes. Transient compartment models for simulating UF{sub 6} releases inside gaseous diffusion plant feed and withdrawl buildings and cascade buildings are also described. The basic compartment model mass and energy balances are supported by simple heat transfer, ventilation system, and deposition models. A model that can simulate either a closed compartment or a steady-state ventilation system is also discussed. The transient compartment models provide input to an atmospheric dispersion model as output.
Pollutant Dispersion Modeling in Natural Streams Using the Transmission Line Matrix Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Safia Meddah
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Numerical modeling has become an indispensable tool for solving various physical problems. In this context, we present a model of pollutant dispersion in natural streams for the far field case where dispersion is considered longitudinal and one-dimensional in the flow direction. The Transmission Line Matrix (TLM, which has earned a reputation as powerful and efficient numerical method, is used. The presented one-dimensional TLM model requires a minimum input data and provides a significant gain in computing time. To validate our model, the results are compared with observations and experimental data from the river Severn (UK. The results show a good agreement with experimental data. The model can be used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of a pollutant in natural streams for effective and rapid decision-making in a case of emergency, such as accidental discharges in a stream with a dynamic similar to that of the river Severn (UK.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uliasz, M.
1990-01-01
The mesoscale dispersion modeling system is under continuous development. The included numerical models require further improvements and evaluation against data from meteorological and tracer field experiments. The system can not be directly applied to real time predictions. However, it seems to be a useful simulation tool for solving several problems related to planning the monitoring network and development of the emergency response system for the nuclear power plant located in a coastal area. The modeling system can be also applied to another environmental problems connected with air pollution dispersion in complex terrain. The presented numerical models are designed for the use on personal computers and are relatively fast in comparison with the similar mesoscale models developed on mainframe computers
Embodied water analysis for Hebei Province, China by input-output modelling
Liu, Siyuan; Han, Mengyao; Wu, Xudong; Wu, Xiaofang; Li, Zhi; Xia, Xiaohua; Ji, Xi
2018-03-01
With the accelerating coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional economic integration is recognized as a national strategy. As water scarcity places Hebei Province in a dilemma, it is of critical importance for Hebei Province to balance water resources as well as make full use of its unique advantages in the transition to sustainable development. To our knowledge, related embodied water accounting analysis has been conducted for Beijing and Tianjin, while similar works with the focus on Hebei are not found. In this paper, using the most complete and recent statistics available for Hebei Province, the embodied water use in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail. Based on input-output analysis, it presents a complete set of systems accounting framework for water resources. In addition, a database of embodied water intensity is proposed which is applicable to both intermediate inputs and final demand. The result suggests that the total amount of embodied water in final demand is 10.62 billion m3, of which the water embodied in urban household consumption accounts for more than half. As a net embodied water importer, the water embodied in the commodity trade in Hebei Province is 17.20 billion m3. The outcome of this work implies that it is particularly urgent to adjust industrial structure and trade policies for water conservation, to upgrade technology and to improve water utilization. As a result, to relieve water shortages in Hebei Province, it is of crucial importance to regulate the balance of water use within the province, thus balancing water distribution in the various industrial sectors.
A comprehensive experimental databank for the verification of urban car emission dispersion models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pavageau, M.; Rafailidis, S.; Schatzmann, M. [Universitaet Hamburg (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.
2001-07-01
A summary presentation is made of representative samples from a comprehensive experimental databank on car exhaust dispersion in urban street canyons. Physical modelling, under neutral stratification conditions, was used to provide visualisation, pollutant concentration and velocity measurements above and inside test canyons amidst surrounding urban roughness. The study extended to two different canyon aspects ratios, in combination with different roof configurations on the surrounding buildings. To serve as a reliable basis for validation and testing of urban pollution dispersion codes, special emphasis was placed in this work on data quality assurance. (Author)
Meneguz, Elena; Thomson, David; Witham, Claire; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta
2015-04-01
the isotope 133Xe available at International Monitoring System stations around the South Pacific Ocean. In addition, timeseries of modelled output concentrations obtained using NAME on a grid of 25 km size are compared with those obtained with FLEXPART, another well-known atmospheric dispersion model used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and other scientific communities. Findings are discussed and discrepancies investigated.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
2015-01-01
showed a lower dispersion around the base uncertainty value. Results are also obtained from the implementation of the analysis on a real case involving the finalization of a ring road around Næstved. Three different scenarios were tested. The resulting uncertainty in the travel time savings from...
FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.
1997-06-01
This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xubin Ping
2015-01-01
Full Text Available For the quasi-linear parameter varying (quasi-LPV system with bounded disturbance, a synthesis approach of dynamic output feedback robust model predictive control (OFRMPC is investigated. The estimation error set is represented by a zonotope and refreshed by the zonotopic set-membership estimation method. By properly refreshing the estimation error set online, the bounds of true state at the next sampling time can be obtained. Furthermore, the feasibility of the main optimization problem at the next sampling time can be determined at the current time. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.
Modelling the dispersion of radionuclides following short duration releases to rivers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, J.T.; Bowes, M.; Denison, F.H.
2003-01-01
This project develops a model for assessing short duration liquid discharges of radionuclides to rivers. The assessment of doses arising from discharges to rivers is normally carried out by considering annual average discharge rates. Actual authorised discharges, however, may occur unevenly during the year or relatively high short-term discharges could occur in the unlikely event of an incident. Short term radionuclide releases could potentially result in temporary increases in radionuclide activity concentrations in water and fish which are greater than those resulting from a continuous discharge. The purpose of this project is to develop a model to assess short term releases from these sites, and where possible develop generic methods of assessing short term releases. An advection-dispersion model was developed to predict the concentrations of radionuclides in the river environment, ie in river water, river bed sediment and in predatory fish. Uptake of radionuclides to fish was modelled by estimating rates of uptake of radionuclides via the aquatic food chain or across the gill, as appropriate. The model was used to predict the concentrations of the radionuclides in the river Thames and its tributaries as a result of short duration discharges into stretches of the Thames and River Colne. Model output is given as a series of graphs of activity concentration and time integrated activity concentration resulting from a 1 MBq discharge for the following release durations: 5 minutes, 1 h, 3 h, 12 h and 24 h. The five locations for which predictions are given were 100m, 300m, 1000m, 3000m and 10000m downstream. The river volumetric flow rate was shown to be the most important environmental variable determining activity concentrations in water, fish and sediments following a release. In general, the maximum and integrated activity concentrations in water and fish will be in inverse proportion to the river volumetric flow rate, for a given amount and duration of release
User's Guide To CHEAP0 II-Economic Analysis of Stand Prognosis Model Outputs
Joseph E. Horn; E. Lee Medema; Ervin G. Schuster
1986-01-01
CHEAP0 II provides supplemental economic analysis capability for users of version 5.1 of the Stand Prognosis Model, including recent regeneration and insect outbreak extensions. Although patterned after the old CHEAP0 model, CHEAP0 II has more features and analytic capabilities, especially for analysis of existing and uneven-aged stands....
Comparison of Soil Moisture in Switzerland Using In-Situ Measurements and Model Output
Mittelbach, H.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.
2011-01-01
Soil moisture is an essential contributor to land surface- atmosphere interactions. In this study we evaluate the two Land surface models CLM3.5 and SIB3 regarding their performance in simulating soil moisture and its anomalies for the one year period 01.09.2009 to 31.08.2010. Four grassland sites from the SwissSMEX/- Veg project were used as reference soil moisture data. In general, both models represent the soil moisture anomalies and their distribution better than the absolute soil moisture. Furthermore, both models show a seasonal dependence of the correlation and root mean square error. In contrast to the SIB3 model, the CLM3.5 model shows stronger seasonal variation of the root mean square error and a larger interquantile range for soil moisture anomalies.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ukidwe, Nandan U.; Bakshi, Bhavik R.
2007-01-01
This paper develops a thermodynamic input-output (TIO) model of the 1997 United States economy that accounts for the flow of cumulative exergy in the 488-sector benchmark economic input-output model in two different ways. Industrial cumulative exergy consumption (ICEC) captures the exergy of all natural resources consumed directly and indirectly by each economic sector, while ecological cumulative exergy consumption (ECEC) also accounts for the exergy consumed in ecological systems for producing each natural resource. Information about exergy consumed in nature is obtained from the thermodynamics of biogeochemical cycles. As used in this work, ECEC is analogous to the concept of emergy, but does not rely on any of its controversial claims. The TIO model can also account for emissions from each sector and their impact and the role of labor. The use of consistent exergetic units permits the combination of various streams to define aggregate metrics that may provide insight into aspects related to the impact of economic sectors on the environment. Accounting for the contribution of natural capital by ECEC has been claimed to permit better representation of the quality of ecosystem goods and services than ICEC. The results of this work are expected to permit evaluation of these claims. If validated, this work is expected to lay the foundation for thermodynamic life cycle assessment, particularly of emerging technologies and with limited information
Contributions of chemical exchange to T1ρ dispersion in a tissue model.
Cobb, Jared G; Xie, Jingping; Gore, John C
2011-12-01
Variations in T(1ρ) with locking-field strength (T(1ρ) dispersion) may be used to estimate proton exchange rates. We developed a novel approach utilizing the second derivative of the dispersion curve to measure exchange in a model system of cross-linked polyacrylamide gels. These gels were varied in relative composition of comonomers, increasing stiffness, and in pH, modifying exchange rates. Magnetic resonance images were recorded with a spin-locking sequence as described by Sepponen et al. These measurements were fit to a mono-exponential decay function yielding values for T(1ρ) at each locking-field measured. These values were then fit to a model by Chopra et al. for estimating exchange rates. For low stiffness gels, the calculated exchange values increased by a factor of 4 as pH increased, consistent with chemical exchange being the dominant contributor to T(1ρ) dispersion. Interestingly, calculated chemical exchange rates also increased with stiffness, likely due to modified side-chain exchange kinetics as the composition varied. This article demonstrates a new method to assess the structural and chemical effects on T(1ρ) relaxation dispersion with a suitable model. These phenomena may be exploited in an imaging context to emphasize the presence of nuclei of specific exchange rates, rather than chemical shifts. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
A model for short and medium range dispersion of radionuclides released to the atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clarke, R.H.
1979-09-01
A Working Group was established to give practical guidance on the estimation of the dispersion of radioactive releases to the atmosphere. The dispersion is estimated in the short and medium range, that is from about 100 m to a few tens of kilometres from the source, and is based upon a Gaussian plume model. A scheme is presented for categorising atmospheric conditions and values of the associated dispersion parameters are given. Typical results are presented for releases in specific meteorological conditions and a scheme is included to allow for durations of release of up to 24 hours. Consideration has also been given to predicting longer term average concentrations, typically annual averages, and results are presented which facilitate site specific calculations. The results of the models are extended to 100 km from the source, but the increasing uncertainty with which results may be predicted beyond a few tens of kilometres from the source is emphasised. Three technical appendices provide some of the rationale behind the decisions made in adopting the various models in the proposed dispersion scheme. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hans Schermeyer
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.
The formulations of the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee's applied air dispersion model (AERMOD) as related to the characterization of the planetary boundary layer are described. This is the first in a series of three articles. Part II describes the formulation of...
Mixed Platoon Flow Dispersion Model Based on Speed-Truncated Gaussian Mixture Distribution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weitiao Wu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A mixed traffic flow feature is presented on urban arterials in China due to a large amount of buses. Based on field data, a macroscopic mixed platoon flow dispersion model (MPFDM was proposed to simulate the platoon dispersion process along the road section between two adjacent intersections from the flow view. More close to field observation, truncated Gaussian mixture distribution was adopted as the speed density distribution for mixed platoon. Expectation maximum (EM algorithm was used for parameters estimation. The relationship between the arriving flow distribution at downstream intersection and the departing flow distribution at upstream intersection was investigated using the proposed model. Comparison analysis using virtual flow data was performed between the Robertson model and the MPFDM. The results confirmed the validity of the proposed model.
The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF VERSION 3.1
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brioude, J.; Arnold, D.; Stohl, A.; Cassiani, M.; Morton, Don; Seibert, P.; Angevine, W. M.; Evan, S.; Dingwell, A.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.; Pisso, I.; Bukhart, J.; Wotawa, G.
2013-11-01
The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally designed for cal- culating long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis at different scales. This multiscale need from the modeler community has encouraged new developments in FLEXPART. In this document, we present a version that works with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteoro- logical model. Simple procedures on how to run FLEXPART-WRF are presented along with special options and features that differ from its predecessor versions. In addition, test case data, the source code and visualization tools are provided to the reader as supplementary material.
Homogenization of a Directed Dispersal Model for Animal Movement in a Heterogeneous Environment.
Yurk, Brian P
2016-10-01
The dispersal patterns of animals moving through heterogeneous environments have important ecological and epidemiological consequences. In this work, we apply the method of homogenization to analyze an advection-diffusion (AD) model of directed movement in a one-dimensional environment in which the scale of the heterogeneity is small relative to the spatial scale of interest. We show that the large (slow) scale behavior is described by a constant-coefficient diffusion equation under certain assumptions about the fast-scale advection velocity, and we determine a formula for the slow-scale diffusion coefficient in terms of the fast-scale parameters. We extend the homogenization result to predict invasion speeds for an advection-diffusion-reaction (ADR) model with directed dispersal. For periodic environments, the homogenization approximation of the solution of the AD model compares favorably with numerical simulations. Invasion speed approximations for the ADR model also compare favorably with numerical simulations when the spatial period is sufficiently small.
Modelling of pollen dispersion in the atmosphere: evaluation with a continuous 1β+1δ lidar
Sicard, Michaël; Izquierdo, Rebeca; Jorba, Oriol; Alarcón, Marta; Belmonte, Jordina; Comerón, Adolfo; De Linares, Concepción; Baldasano, José Maria
2018-04-01
Pollen allergenicity plays an important role on human health and wellness. It is thus of large public interest to increase our knowledge of pollen grain behavior in the atmosphere (source, emission, processes involved during their transport, etc.) at fine temporal and spatial scales. First simulations with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center NMMB/BSC-CTM model of Platanus and Pinus dispersion in the atmosphere were performed during a 5-day pollination event observed in Barcelona, Spain, between 27 - 31 March, 2015. The simulations are compared to vertical profiles measured with the continuous Barcelona Micro Pulse Lidar system. First results show that the vertical distribution is well reproduced by the model in shape, but not in intensity, the model largely underestimating in the afternoon. Guidelines are proposed to improve the dispersion of airborne pollen by numerical prediction models.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buske, D.
2011-01-01
The present contribution focuses on the question of radioactive material dispersion after discharge from a nuclear power plant in the context of micro-meteorology, i.e. an atmospheric dispersion model. The advection-diffusion equation with Fickian closure for the turbulence is solved for the atmospheric boundary layer where the eddy diffusivity coefficients and the wind profile are assumed to be space dependent. The model is solved in closed form using integral transform and spectral theory. Convergence of the solution is discussed in terms of a convergence criterion using a new interpretation of the Cardinal Theorem of Interpolation theory and Parseval's theorem. The solution is compared to other methods and model adequacy is analyzed. Model validation is performed against experimental data from a controlled release of radioactive material at the Itaorna Beach (Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, 1985). (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Bin; Yang, Gang
2014-01-01
A two dimensional (2D) micromorphic model is developed for monolayer hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN). Theoretical expressions of phonon dispersions for 2D crystals are derived based on the simplified governing equations of specialized three dimensional micromorphic crystals. The constitutive constants of governing equations of the h-BN micromorphic model are determined, which is performed by fitting the available phonon dispersions data of experimental measurements and first-principles calculations with our theoretical expressions. The obtained Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio of h-BN are comparable with the results of ab initio calculations and inelastic x-ray scattering experiments, thus the constitutive relations of the h-BN model are verified, which also indicates that mechanical properties of monolayer h-BN could be characterized by our 2D micromorphic model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ma, Denglong [Fuli School of Food Equipment Engineering and Science, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); Zhang, Zaoxiao, E-mail: zhangzx@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China)
2016-07-05
Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma, Denglong; Zhang, Zaoxiao
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.
Frequency dispersion analysis of thin dielectric MOS capacitor in a five-element model
Zhang, Xizhen; Zhang, Sujuan; Zhu, Huichao; Pan, Xiuyu; Cheng, Chuanhui; Yu, Tao; Li, Xiangping; Cheng, Yi; Xing, Guichao; Zhang, Daming; Luo, Xixian; Chen, Baojiu
2018-02-01
An Al/ZrO2/IL/n-Si (IL: interface layer) MOS capacitor has been fabricated by metal organic decomposition of ZrO2 and thermal deposition Al. We have measured parallel capacitance (C m) and parallel resistance (R m) versus bias voltage curves (C m, R m-V) at different AC signal frequency (f), and C m, R m-f curves at different bias voltage. The curves of C m, R m-f measurements show obvious frequency dispersion in the range of 100 kHz-2 MHz. The energy band profile shows that a large voltage is applied on the ZrO2 layer and IL at accumulation, which suggests possible dielectric polarization processes by some traps in ZrO2 and IL. C m, R m-f data are used for frequency dispersion analysis. To exclude external frequency dispersion, we have extracted the parameters of C (real MOS capacitance), R p (parallel resistance), C IL (IL capacitance), R IL (IL resistance) and R s (Si resistance) in a five-element model by using a three-frequency method. We have analyzed intrinsic frequency dispersion of C, R p, C IL, R IL and R s by studying the dielectric characteristics and Si surface layer characteristics. At accumulation, the dispersion of C and R p is attributed to dielectric polarization such as dipolar orientation and oxide traps. The serious dispersion of C IL and R IL are relative to other dielectric polarization, such as border traps and fixed oxide traps. The dispersion of R s is mainly attributed to contact capacitance (C c) and contact resistance (R c). At depletion and inversion, the frequency dispersion of C, R p, C IL, R IL, and R s are mainly attributed to the depletion layer capacitance (C D). The interface trap capacitance (C it) and interface trap resistance (R it) are not dominant for the dispersion of C, R p, C IL, R IL, and R s.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Junnian; Yang, Wei; Li, Zhaoling; Higano, Yoshiro; Wang, Xian’en
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A waste-to-energy system is constructed incorporating various urban wastes and technologies. • Waste-to-energy industries are formed and introduced into current socioeconomic system. • A novel input–output simulation model is developed and applied to a metropolis. • Complete energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes are discovered. - Abstract: Tremendous amounts of wastes are generated in urban areas due to accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The current unreasonable waste disposal patterns and potential energy value of urban wastes necessitates the promotion of waste-to-energy implementation. This study is intent on discovering the complete energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes taking municipal solid wastes, waste oil, organic wastewater and livestock manure into consideration. A waste-to-energy system is constructed incorporating these wastes and five waste-to-energy technologies. A novel input–output simulation model is developed and applied to a metropolis to introduce the waste-to-energy system into the current socioeconomic system and form five waste-to-energy industries. The trends in waste generation and energy recovery potential, economic benefits and greenhouse gas mitigation contribution for the study area are estimated and explored from 2011 to 2025. By 2025, biodiesel production and power generation could amount to 72.11 thousand t and 1.59 billion kW h respectively. Due to the highest energy recovery and the most subsidies, the organic wastewater biogas industry has the highest output and net profit, followed by the waste incineration power generation industry. In total 17.97 million t (carbon dioxide-equivalent) accumulative greenhouse gas emission could be mitigated. The organic wastewater biogas industry and waste incineration power generation industry are more advantageous for the study area in terms of better energy, economic and environmental performances. The
Food web model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...
Bioenergetics model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...
The Output Cost of Gender Discrimination: A Model-Based Macroeconomic Estimate
Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V.; Tavares, José
2008-01-01
Gender-based discrimination is a pervasive and costly phenomenon. To a greater or lesser extent, all economies present a gender wage gap, associated with lower female labour force participation rates and higher fertility. This paper presents a growth model where saving, fertility and labour market participation are endogenously determined, and there is wage discrimination. The model is calibrated to mimic the performance of the U.S. economy, including the gender wage gap and relative female l...
Modelling of U-Mo/Al Dispersion fuel fission induced swelling and creep
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, Gwan Yoon; Sohn, Dong Seong; Kim, Yeon Soo
2014-01-01
In a Dispersion fuel which U-Mo particles are dispersed in Al metal matrix, a similar phenomenon forming a bulge region was observed but it is difficult to quantify and construct a model for explaining creep and swelling because of its complex microstructure change during irradiation including interaction layer (IL) and porosity formation. In a Dispersion fuel meat, fission product induces fuel particles swelling and it has to be accommodated by the deformation of the Al matrix and newly formed IL during irradiation. Then, it is reasonable that stress from fuel swelling in the complex structure should be relaxed by local adjustments of particles, Al matrix, and IL. For analysis of U-Mo/Al Dispersion fuel creep, the creep of U-Mo particle, Al matrix, and IL should be considered. Moreover, not only fuel particle swelling and IL growth, but also fuel and Al matrix consumptions due to IL formation are accounted in terms of their volume fraction changes during irradiation. In this work, fuel particles, Al matrix and IL are treated in a way of homogenized constituents: Fuel particles, Al matrix and IL consist of an equivalent meat during irradiation. Meat volume swelling of two representative plates was measured: One (Plate A) was a pure Al matrix with 6g/cc uranium loading, the other (Plate B) a silicon added Al matrix with 8g/cc uranium loading. The meat swelling of calculated as a function of burnup. The meat swelling of calculation and measurement was compared and the creep rate coefficients for Al and IL were estimated by repetitions. Based on assumption that only the continuous phase of Al-IL combined matrix accommodated the stress from fuel particle swelling and it was allowed to have creep deformation, the homogenization modeling was performed. The meat swelling of two U-Mo/Al Dispersion fuel plates was modeled by using homogenization model
Modelling of U-Mo/Al Dispersion fuel fission induced swelling and creep
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jeong, Gwan Yoon; Sohn, Dong Seong [Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yeon Soo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)
2014-05-15
In a Dispersion fuel which U-Mo particles are dispersed in Al metal matrix, a similar phenomenon forming a bulge region was observed but it is difficult to quantify and construct a model for explaining creep and swelling because of its complex microstructure change during irradiation including interaction layer (IL) and porosity formation. In a Dispersion fuel meat, fission product induces fuel particles swelling and it has to be accommodated by the deformation of the Al matrix and newly formed IL during irradiation. Then, it is reasonable that stress from fuel swelling in the complex structure should be relaxed by local adjustments of particles, Al matrix, and IL. For analysis of U-Mo/Al Dispersion fuel creep, the creep of U-Mo particle, Al matrix, and IL should be considered. Moreover, not only fuel particle swelling and IL growth, but also fuel and Al matrix consumptions due to IL formation are accounted in terms of their volume fraction changes during irradiation. In this work, fuel particles, Al matrix and IL are treated in a way of homogenized constituents: Fuel particles, Al matrix and IL consist of an equivalent meat during irradiation. Meat volume swelling of two representative plates was measured: One (Plate A) was a pure Al matrix with 6g/cc uranium loading, the other (Plate B) a silicon added Al matrix with 8g/cc uranium loading. The meat swelling of calculated as a function of burnup. The meat swelling of calculation and measurement was compared and the creep rate coefficients for Al and IL were estimated by repetitions. Based on assumption that only the continuous phase of Al-IL combined matrix accommodated the stress from fuel particle swelling and it was allowed to have creep deformation, the homogenization modeling was performed. The meat swelling of two U-Mo/Al Dispersion fuel plates was modeled by using homogenization model.
Faroughi, S. A.; Huber, C.
2015-12-01
Crystal settling and bubbles migration in magmas have significant effects on the physical and chemical evolution of magmas. The rate of phase segregation is controlled by the force balance that governs the migration of particles suspended in the melt. The relative velocity of a single particle or bubble in a quiescent infinite fluid (melt) is well characterized; however, the interplay between particles or bubbles in suspensions and emulsions and its effect on their settling/rising velocity remains poorly quantified. We propose a theoretical model for the hindered velocity of non-Brownian emulsions of nondeformable droplets, and suspensions of spherical solid particles in the creeping flow regime. The model is based on three sets of hydrodynamic corrections: two on the drag coefficient experienced by each particle to account for both return flow and Smoluchowski effects and a correction on the mixture rheology to account for nonlocal interactions between particles. The model is then extended for mono-disperse non-spherical solid particles that are randomly oriented. The non-spherical particles are idealized as spheroids and characterized by their aspect ratio. The poly-disperse nature of natural suspensions is then taken into consideration by introducing an effective volume fraction of particles for each class of mono-disperse particles sizes. Our model is tested against new and published experimental data over a wide range of particle volume fraction and viscosity ratios between the constituents of dispersions. We find an excellent agreement between our model and experiments. We also show two significant applications for our model: (1) We demonstrate that hindered settling can increase mineral residence time by up to an order of magnitude in convecting magma chambers. (2) We provide a model to correct for particle interactions in the conventional hydrometer test to estimate the particle size distribution in soils. Our model offers a greatly improved agreement with
Pratt, D. T.
1984-01-01
An interactive computer code for simulation of a high-intensity turbulent combustor as a single point inhomogeneous stirred reactor was developed from an existing batch processing computer code CDPSR. The interactive CDPSR code was used as a guide for interpretation and direction of DOE-sponsored companion experiments utilizing Xenon tracer with optical laser diagnostic techniques to experimentally determine the appropriate mixing frequency, and for validation of CDPSR as a mixing-chemistry model for a laboratory jet-stirred reactor. The coalescence-dispersion model for finite rate mixing was incorporated into an existing interactive code AVCO-MARK I, to enable simulation of a combustor as a modular array of stirred flow and plug flow elements, each having a prescribed finite mixing frequency, or axial distribution of mixing frequency, as appropriate. Further increase the speed and reliability of the batch kinetics integrator code CREKID was increased by rewriting in vectorized form for execution on a vector or parallel processor, and by incorporating numerical techniques which enhance execution speed by permitting specification of a very low accuracy tolerance.
Computing Models of M-type Host Stars and their Panchromatic Spectral Output
Linsky, Jeffrey; Tilipman, Dennis; France, Kevin
2018-06-01
We have begun a program of computing state-of-the-art model atmospheres from the photospheres to the coronae of M stars that are the host stars of known exoplanets. For each model we are computing the emergent radiation at all wavelengths that are critical for assessingphotochemistry and mass-loss from exoplanet atmospheres. In particular, we are computing the stellar extreme ultraviolet radiation that drives hydrodynamic mass loss from exoplanet atmospheres and is essential for determing whether an exoplanet is habitable. The model atmospheres are computed with the SSRPM radiative transfer/statistical equilibrium code developed by Dr. Juan Fontenla. The code solves for the non-LTE statistical equilibrium populations of 18,538 levels of 52 atomic and ion species and computes the radiation from all species (435,986 spectral lines) and about 20,000,000 spectral lines of 20 diatomic species.The first model computed in this program was for the modestly active M1.5 V star GJ 832 by Fontenla et al. (ApJ 830, 152 (2016)). We will report on a preliminary model for the more active M5 V star GJ 876 and compare this model and its emergent spectrum with GJ 832. In the future, we will compute and intercompare semi-empirical models and spectra for all of the stars observed with the HST MUSCLES Treasury Survey, the Mega-MUSCLES Treasury Survey, and additional stars including Proxima Cen and Trappist-1.This multiyear theory program is supported by a grant from the Space Telescope Science Institute.
Comparison of squashing and self-consistent input-output models of quantum feedback
Peřinová, V.; Lukš, A.; Křepelka, J.
2018-03-01
The paper (Yanagisawa and Hope, 2010) opens with two ways of analysis of a measurement-based quantum feedback. The scheme of the feedback includes, along with the homodyne detector, a modulator and a beamsplitter, which does not enable one to extract the nonclassical field. In the present scheme, the beamsplitter is replaced by the quantum noise evader, which makes it possible to extract the nonclassical field. We re-approach the comparison of two models related to the same scheme. The first one admits that in the feedback loop between the photon annihilation and creation operators, unusual commutation relations hold. As a consequence, in the feedback loop, squashing of the light occurs. In the second one, the description arrives at the feedback loop via unitary transformations. But it is obvious that the unitary transformation which describes the modulator changes even the annihilation operator of the mode which passes by the modulator which is not natural. The first model could be called "squashing model" and the second one could be named "self-consistent model". Although the predictions of the two models differ only a little and both the ways of analysis have their advantages, they have also their drawbacks and further investigation is possible.
Governmentally amplified output volatility
Funashima, Yoshito
2016-11-01
Predominant government behavior is decomposed by frequency into several periodic components: updating cycles of infrastructure, Kuznets cycles, fiscal policy over business cycles, and election cycles. Little is known, however, about the theoretical impact of such cyclical behavior in public finance on output fluctuations. Based on a standard neoclassical growth model, this study intends to examine the frequency at which public investment cycles are relevant to output fluctuations. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between output volatility and length of cycle in public investment. This implies that periodic behavior in public investment at a certain frequency range can cause aggravated output resonance. Moreover, we present an empirical analysis to test the theoretical implication, using the U.S. data in the period from 1968 to 2015. The empirical results suggest that such resonance phenomena change from low to high frequency.
Li, Ping; Jiang, Li Jun; Bagci, Hakan
2018-01-01
It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.
Combining a dispersal model with network theory to assess habitat connectivity.
Lookingbill, Todd R; Gardner, Robert H; Ferrari, Joseph R; Keller, Cherry E
2010-03-01
Assessing the potential for threatened species to persist and spread within fragmented landscapes requires the identification of core areas that can sustain resident populations and dispersal corridors that can link these core areas with isolated patches of remnant habitat. We developed a set of GIS tools, simulation methods, and network analysis procedures to assess potential landscape connectivity for the Delmarva fox squirrel (DFS; Sciurus niger cinereus), an endangered species inhabiting forested areas on the Delmarva Peninsula, USA. Information on the DFS's life history and dispersal characteristics, together with data on the composition and configuration of land cover on the peninsula, were used as input data for an individual-based model to simulate dispersal patterns of millions of squirrels. Simulation results were then assessed using methods from graph theory, which quantifies habitat attributes associated with local and global connectivity. Several bottlenecks to dispersal were identified that were not apparent from simple distance-based metrics, highlighting specific locations for landscape conservation, restoration, and/or squirrel translocations. Our approach links simulation models, network analysis, and available field data in an efficient and general manner, making these methods useful and appropriate for assessing the movement dynamics of threatened species within landscapes being altered by human and natural disturbances.
Li, Ping
2018-04-13
It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.
DFT Modeling of Cross-Linked Polyethylene: Role of Gold Atoms and Dispersion Interactions.
Blaško, Martin; Mach, Pavel; Antušek, Andrej; Urban, Miroslav
2018-02-08
Using DFT modeling, we analyze the concerted action of gold atoms and dispersion interactions in cross-linked polyethylene. Our model consists of two oligomer chains (PEn) with 7, 11, 15, 19, or 23 carbon atoms in each oligomer cross-linked with one to three Au atoms through C-Au-C bonds. In structures with a single gold atom the C-Au-C bond is located in the central position of the oligomer. Binding energies (BEs) with respect to two oligomer radical fragments and Au are as high as 362-489 kJ/mol depending on the length of the oligomer chain. When the dispersion contribution in PEn-Au-PEn oligomers is omitted, BE is almost independent of the number of carbon atoms, lying between 293 and 296 kJ/mol. The dispersion energy contributions to BEs in PEn-Au-PEn rise nearly linearly with the number of carbon atoms in the PEn chain. The carbon-carbon distance in the C-Au-C moiety is around 4.1 Å, similar to the bond distance between saturated closed shell chains in the polyethylene crystal. BEs of pure saturated closed shell PEn-PEn oligomers are 51-187 kJ/mol. Both Au atoms and dispersion interactions contribute considerably to the creation of nearly parallel chains of oligomers with reasonably high binding energies.
Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver
2015-01-01
By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.
Model Predictive Current Control for High-Power Grid-Connected Converters with Output LCL Filter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Delpino, Hernan Anres Miranda; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro
2009-01-01
A model predictive control strategy for a highpower, grid connected 3-level neutral clamped point converter is presented. Power losses constraints set a limit on commutation losses so reduced switching frequency is required, thus producing low frequency current harmonics. To reduce these harmonics...
Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models
Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom
2012-01-01
The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sutikno Sutikno
2010-08-01
Full Text Available One of the climate models used to predict the climatic conditions is Global Circulation Models (GCM. GCM is a computer-based model that consists of different equations. It uses numerical and deterministic equation which follows the physics rules. GCM is a main tool to predict climate and weather, also it uses as primary information source to review the climate change effect. Statistical Downscaling (SD technique is used to bridge the large-scale GCM with a small scale (the study area. GCM data is spatial and temporal data most likely to occur where the spatial correlation between different data on the grid in a single domain. Multicollinearity problems require the need for pre-processing of variable data X. Continuum Regression (CR and pre-processing with Principal Component Analysis (PCA methods is an alternative to SD modelling. CR is one method which was developed by Stone and Brooks (1990. This method is a generalization from Ordinary Least Square (OLS, Principal Component Regression (PCR and Partial Least Square method (PLS methods, used to overcome multicollinearity problems. Data processing for the station in Ambon, Pontianak, Losarang, Indramayu and Yuntinyuat show that the RMSEP values and R2 predict in the domain 8x8 and 12x12 by uses CR method produces results better than by PCR and PLS.
Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu
2012-01-01
The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution
Hydrodynamic dispersion characteristics of lateral inflow into a river tested by a laboratory model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Y. Chou
2009-02-01
Full Text Available Groundwater and river-water have a different composition and interact in and below the riverbed. The riverbed-aquifer flux interactions have received growing interest because of their role in the exchange and transformation of nutrients and pollutants between rivers and the aquifer. In this research our main purpose is to identify the physical processes and characteristics needed for a numerical transport model, which includes the unsaturated recharge zone, the aquifer and the riverbed. In order to investigate such lateral groundwater inflow process, a laboratory J-shaped column experiment was designed. This study determined the transport parameters of the J-shaped column by fitting an analytical solution of the convective-dispersion equation for every flux on individual segments to the observed breakthrough curves of the resident concentration, and by inverse modelling for every flux simultaneously over the entire flow domain. The obtained transport-parameter relation was tested by numerical simulation using HYDRUS 2-D/3-D.
Four steady-state flux conditions (i.e. 0.5 cm hr^{−1}, 1 cm hr^{−1}, 1.5 cm hr^{−1} and 2 cm hr^{−1} were applied, transport parameters including pore water velocity and dispersivity were determined for both unsaturated and saturated sections along the column. Results showed that under saturated conditions the dispersivity was fairly constant and independent of the flux. In contrast, dispersivity under unsaturated conditions was flux dependent and increased at lower flux. For our porous medium the dispersion coefficient related best to the quotient of the pore water velocity divided by the water content. A simulation model of riverbed-aquifer flux interaction should take this into account.