Simulating Nationwide Pandemics: Applying the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis System to Human Infectious Diseases

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Dombroski, M; Melius, C; Edmunds, T; Banks, L E; Bates, T; Wheeler, R

2008-09-24

This study uses the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) system developed for foreign animal diseases to assess consequences of nationwide human infectious disease outbreaks. A literature review identified the state of the art in both small-scale regional models and large-scale nationwide models and characterized key aspects of a nationwide epidemiological model. The MESA system offers computational advantages over existing epidemiological models and enables a broader array of stochastic analyses of model runs to be conducted because of those computational advantages. However, it has only been demonstrated on foreign animal diseases. This paper applied the MESA modeling methodology to human epidemiology. The methodology divided 2000 US Census data at the census tract level into school-bound children, work-bound workers, elderly, and stay at home individuals. The model simulated mixing among these groups by incorporating schools, workplaces, households, and long-distance travel via airports. A baseline scenario with fixed input parameters was run for a nationwide influenza outbreak using relatively simple social distancing countermeasures. Analysis from the baseline scenario showed one of three possible results: (1) the outbreak burned itself out before it had a chance to spread regionally, (2) the outbreak spread regionally and lasted a relatively long time, although constrained geography enabled it to eventually be contained without affecting a disproportionately large number of people, or (3) the outbreak spread through air travel and lasted a long time with unconstrained geography, becoming a nationwide pandemic. These results are consistent with empirical influenza outbreak data. The results showed that simply scaling up a regional small-scale model is unlikely to account for all the complex variables and their interactions involved in a nationwide outbreak. There are several limitations of the methodology that should be explored in future

Periodontal manifestations of inflammatory bowel disease: emerging epidemiologic and biologic evidence.

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Agossa, K; Dendooven, A; Dubuquoy, L; Gower-Rousseau, C; Delcourt-Debruyne, E; Capron, M

2017-06-01

Inflammatory bowel disease and periodontitis are both described as a disproportionate mucosal inflammatory response to a microbial environment in susceptible patients. Moreover, these two conditions share major environmental and lifestyle-related risk factors. Despite this intriguing pathogenic parallel, large-scale studies and basic research have only recently considered periodontal outcomes as relevant data. There are mounting and consistent arguments, from recent epidemiologic studies and animal models, that these two conditions might be related. This article is a comprehensive and critical up-to-date review of the current evidence and future prospects in understanding the biologic and epidemiologic relationships between periodontal status and inflammatory bowel disease. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Epidemiology of Lyme Disease

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Dennis J White

1991-01-01

Full Text Available Investigation of the epidemiology of Lyme disease depends upon information generated from several sources. Human disease surveillance can be conducted by both passive and active means involving physicians, public health agencies and laboratories. Passive and active tick surveillance programs can document the extent of tick-borne activity, identify the geographic range of potential vector species, and determine the relative risk of exposure to Lyme disease in specific areas. Standardized laboratory services can play an important role in providing data. Epidemiologists can gain a better understanding of Lyme disease through the collection of data from such programs. The interpretation of data and provision of information to the medical and general communities are important functions of public health agencies.

A Robust Mathematical Model On Infectious Diseases | Omorogbe ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The paper presents a robust epidemiological compartment model on infectious diseases. The model obviates the limitations of the classical epidemiological model by accommodating different levels of vulnerability and susceptibility to infections within different social class and spatial structures. Unlike the classical model ...

Statistical inference to advance network models in epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, David; Bansal, Shweta; Hunter, David R

2011-03-01

Contact networks are playing an increasingly important role in the study of epidemiology. Most of the existing work in this area has focused on considering the effect of underlying network structure on epidemic dynamics by using tools from probability theory and computer simulation. This work has provided much insight on the role that heterogeneity in host contact patterns plays on infectious disease dynamics. Despite the important understanding afforded by the probability and simulation paradigm, this approach does not directly address important questions about the structure of contact networks such as what is the best network model for a particular mode of disease transmission, how parameter values of a given model should be estimated, or how precisely the data allow us to estimate these parameter values. We argue that these questions are best answered within a statistical framework and discuss the role of statistical inference in estimating contact networks from epidemiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

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S. M. Niaz Arifin

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

CERN Document Server

Ruan, Shigui

2008-01-01

This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

Global epidemiology of celiac disease

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S. V. Bykova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The review presents the data on the prevalence of celiac disease in various world regions. The numbers of patients with celiac disease continues to rise every year. According to some authors, this is to be related not only to improvement in diagnosis, but to other extrinsic factors, as well, that require additional studies. In the 1980s the prevalence of this disease was 1.05%, and by the beginning of 2000s, it amounted to 1.99%. In particular, from 1993 to 2002 in Britain its incidence increased from 6 to 13.3 per 100,000. Both raised awareness of doctors and conduction of epidemiological studies play a decisive role in the improvement of the diagnosis of celiac disease. The information cumulated up to now makes it possible to conclude that the highest diagnostic rates of celiac disease can be found in the risk groups. They include 1st and 2nd degree relatives of patients with celiac disease, patients with autoimmune disorders (type 1 diabetes mellitus, autoimmune thyroiditis; those with clinical signs of an intestinal disorder, such as chronic diarrhea, as well as patients with anemia, osteoporosis and high transaminase levels of unknown origin. According to the Finnish epidemiological study, the prevalence of celiac disease, depending on the risk group, may vary from 6.6 to 16.3%. The guidelines by the American College of Gastroenterology, British Society of Gastroenterology, North-American Society of Pediatric Gastroenterology, and the Russian Consensus on Diagnosis and Treatment of Celiac Disease in Adults and Children all recommend thorough examination of patients from the risk groups. Active diagnosis of celiac disease (screening has been recognized as one of the approaches to primary prevention to autoimmune disorders and cancer.

Update on the epidemiology of the rheumatic diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriel, S E

1996-03-01

Epidemiologic studies continue to enhance our understanding of the rheumatic diseases. Such studies now indicate that 26 million American women are at risk for osteoporotic fractures. Contrary to previous recommendations, the identification and treatment of patients at risk for osteoporosis may be valuable even among very elderly people. Other epidemiologic studies suggest that the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis is decreasing and that it is a more benign disease than previously recognized. Osteoarthritis remains a leading cause of physical and work disability in North America. The roles of occupational physical activity, obesity, and highly competitive (though not low-impact) exercise as risk factors for osteoarthritis continue to be explored. Pharmacoepidemiologic research has recently demonstrated that a policy of prior authorization for prescription of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may be highly cost effective. Finally, controlled epidemiologic studies have not confirmed an association between silicone breast implants and connective tissue diseases, a conclusion recently endorsed by the American College of Rheumatology.

Epidemiology of chronic kidney disease in children

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harambat, Jérôme; van Stralen, Karlijn J.; Kim, Jon Jin; Tizard, E. Jane

2012-01-01

In the past 30 years there have been major improvements in the care of children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, most of the available epidemiological data stem from end-stage renal disease (ESRD) registries and information on the earlier stages of pediatric CKD is still limited. The

[Clostridium difficile infection: epidemiology, disease burden and therapy].

Science.gov (United States)

Gulácsi, László; Kertész, Adrienne; Kopcsóné Németh, Irén; Banai, János; Ludwig, Endre; Prinz, Gyula; Reményi, Péter; Strbák, Bálint; Zsoldiné Urbán, Edit; Baji, Petra; Péntek, Márta; Brodszky, Valentin

2013-07-28

C. difficile causes 25 percent of the antibiotic associated infectious nosocomial diarrhoeas. C. difficile infection is a high-priority problem of public health in each country. The available literature of C. difficile infection's epidemiology and disease burden is limited. Review of the epidemiology, including seasonality and the risk of recurrences, of the disease burden and of the therapy of C. difficile infection. Review of the international and Hungarian literature in MEDLINE database using PubMed up to and including 20th of March, 2012. The incidence of nosocomial C. difficile associated diarrhoea is 4.1/10 000 patient day. The seasonality of C. difficile infection is unproved. 20 percent of the patients have recurrence after metronidazole or vancomycin treatment, and each recurrence increases the chance of a further one. The cost of C. difficile infection is between 130 and 500 thousand HUF (430 € and 1665 €) in Hungary. The importance of C. difficile infection in public health and the associated disease burden are significant. The available data in Hungary are limited, further studies in epidemiology and health economics are required.

Costs and epidemiological changes of chronic diseases: implications and challenges for health systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armando Arredondo

Full Text Available The need to integrate economic and epidemiological aspects in the clinical perspective leads to a proposal for the analysis of health disparities and to an evaluation of the health services and of the new challenges which are now being faced by health system reforms in middle income countries.To identify the epidemiological changes, the demand for health services and economic burden from chronic diseases (diabetes and hypertension in a middle income county.We conducted longitudinal analyses of costs and epidemiological changes for diabetes and hypertension in the Mexican health system. The study population included both the insured and uninsured populations. The cost-evaluation method was used, based on the instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and financial consequences for 2014-2016, six models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique, using confidence intervals of 95%, and the Box-Pierce test.Regarding epidemiological changes expected in both diseases for 2014 vs. 2016, an increase is expected, although results predict a greater increase for diabetes, 8-12% in all three studied institutions, (p < .05. Indeed, in the case of diabetes, the increase was 41469 cases for uninsured population (SSA and 65737 for the insured population (IMSS and ISSSTE. On hypertension cases the increase was 38109 for uninsured vs 62895 for insured. Costs in US$ ranged from $699 to $748 for annual case management per patient in the case of diabetes, and from $485 to $622 in patients with hypertension. Comparing financial consequences of health services required by insured and uninsured populations, the greater increase (23% will be for the insured population (p < .05. The financial requirements of both diseases will amount to 19.5% of the total budget for the uninsured and 12.5% for the insured population.If the risk factors and the different health care models remain as they currently are, the economic

Epidemiological models to assist the management of highly pathogenic avian influenza

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stegeman, J.A.; Bouma, A.; Jong, de M.C.M.

2011-01-01

In recent decades, epidemiological models have been used more and more frequently as a tool for the design of programmes for the management of infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models are used to simulate the effects of various control measures on the spread

Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Colombia (2000-2011): A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Villar, Luis Angel; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Besada-Lombana, Sandra; Sarti, Elsa

2015-01-01

A systematic literature review was conducted to describe the epidemiology of dengue disease in Colombia. Searches of published literature in epidemiological studies of dengue disease encompassing the terms “dengue”, “epidemiology,” and “Colombia” were conducted. Studies in English or Spanish published between 1 January 2000 and 23 February 2012 were included. The searches identified 225 relevant citations, 30 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria defined in the review protocol. The epidemiology of dengue disease in Colombia was characterized by a stable “baseline” annual number of dengue fever cases, with major outbreaks in 2001–2003 and 2010. The geographical spread of dengue disease cases showed a steady increase, with most of the country affected by the 2010 outbreak. The majority of dengue disease recorded during the review period was among those dengue disease in Colombia may provide several avenues for future research, namely studies of asymptomatic dengue virus infection, primary versus secondary infections, and under-reporting of the disease. Improved understanding of the factors that determine disease expression and enable improvement in disease control and management is also important. PMID:25790245

Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

2017-08-03

Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to experience a continued decrease in HAV incidence rates

Multi-agent systems in epidemiology: a first step for computational biology in the study of vector-borne disease transmission

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Guégan Jean-François

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational biology is often associated with genetic or genomic studies only. However, thanks to the increase of computational resources, computational models are appreciated as useful tools in many other scientific fields. Such modeling systems are particularly relevant for the study of complex systems, like the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases. So far, mathematical models remain the main tool for the epidemiological and ecological analysis of infectious diseases, with SIR models could be seen as an implicit standard in epidemiology. Unfortunately, these models are based on differential equations and, therefore, can become very rapidly unmanageable due to the too many parameters which need to be taken into consideration. For instance, in the case of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in wildlife many different potential host species could be involved in the life-cycle of disease transmission, and SIR models might not be the most suitable tool to truly capture the overall disease circulation within that environment. This limitation underlines the necessity to develop a standard spatial model that can cope with the transmission of disease in realistic ecosystems. Results Computational biology may prove to be flexible enough to take into account the natural complexity observed in both natural and man-made ecosystems. In this paper, we propose a new computational model to study the transmission of infectious diseases in a spatially explicit context. We developed a multi-agent system model for vector-borne disease transmission in a realistic spatial environment. Conclusion Here we describe in detail the general behavior of this model that we hope will become a standard reference for the study of vector-borne disease transmission in wildlife. To conclude, we show how this simple model could be easily adapted and modified to be used as a common framework for further research developments in this field.

Epidemiology of dengue disease in Malaysia (2000-2012): a systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohd-Zaki, Abdul Hamid; Brett, Jeremy; Ismail, Ellyana; L'Azou, Maïna

2014-01-01

A literature survey and analysis was conducted to describe the epidemiology of dengue disease in Malaysia between 2000 and 2012. Published literature was searched for epidemiological studies of dengue disease, using specific search strategies for each electronic database; 237 relevant data sources were identified, 28 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The epidemiology of dengue disease in Malaysia was characterized by a non-linear increase in the number of reported cases from 7,103 in 2000 to 46,171 in 2010, and a shift in the age range predominance from children toward adults. The overall increase in dengue disease was accompanied by a rise in the number, but not the proportion, of severe cases. The dominant circulating dengue virus serotypes changed continually over the decade and differed between states. Several gaps in epidemiological knowledge were identified; in particular, studies of regional differences, age-stratified seroprevalence, and hospital admissions. PROSPERO #CRD42012002293.

Epidemiology and natural history of atopic diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Simon F

2015-01-01

The atopic diseases - atopic dermatitis, asthma, and hay fever - pose a great burden to the individual and society, not least, since these diseases have reached epidemic proportions during the past decades in industrialized and, more recently, in developing countries. Whereas the prevalence...... of the atopic diseases now seems to have reached a plateau in many Western countries, they are still on the increase in the developing world. This emphasizes continuing research aimed at identifying the causes, risk factors, and natural history of these diseases. Herein, the fundamental aspects of the natural...... history and epidemiology of the atopic diseases are reviewed....

The Global Epidemiologic Transition: Noncommunicable Diseases and Emerging Health Risk of Allergic Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Atiim, George A.; Elliott, Susan J.

2016-01-01

Globally, there has been a shift in the causes of illness and death from infectious diseases to noncommunicable diseases. This changing pattern has been attributed to the effects of an (ongoing) epidemiologic transition. Although researchers have applied epidemiologic transition theory to questions of global health, there have been relatively few…

Particulate matter and heart disease: Evidence from epidemiological studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, Annette

2005-01-01

The association between particulate matter and heart disease was noted in the mid-nineties of last century when the epidemiological evidence for an association between air pollution and hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease accumulated and first hypotheses regarding the pathomechanism were formulated. Nowadays, epidemiological studies have demonstrated coherent associations between daily changes in concentrations of ambient particles and cardiovascular disease mortality, hospital admission, disease exacerbation in patients with cardiovascular disease and early physiological responses in healthy individuals consistent with a risk factor profile deterioration. In addition, evidence was found that annual average PM 2.5 exposures are associated with increased risks for mortality caused by ischemic heart disease and dysrhythmia. Thereby, evidence is suggesting not only a short-term exacerbation of cardiovascular disease by ambient particle concentrations but also a potential role of particles in defining patients' vulnerability to acute coronary events. While this concept is consistent with the current understanding of the factors defining patients' vulnerability, the mechanisms and the time-scales on which the particle-induced vulnerability might operate are unknown

Ecology, Epidemiology and Disease Management of Ralstonia syzygii in Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Safni, Irda; Subandiyah, Siti; Fegan, Mark

2018-01-01

Ralstonia solanacearum species complex phylotype IV strains, which have been primarily isolated from Indonesia, Australia, Japan, Korea, and Malaysia, have undergone recent taxonomic and nomenclatural changes to be placed in the species Ralstonia syzygii . This species contains three subspecies; Ralstonia syzygii subsp. syzygii , a pathogen causing Sumatra disease of clove trees in Indonesia, Ralstonia syzygii subsp. indonesiensis , the causal pathogen of bacterial wilt disease on a wide range of host plants, and Ralstonia syzygii subsp. celebesensis , the causal pathogen of blood disease on Musa spp. In Indonesia, these three subspecies have devastated the cultivation of susceptible host plants which have high economic value. Limited knowledge on the ecology and epidemiology of the diseases has hindered the development of effective control strategies. In this review, we provide insights into the ecology, epidemiology and disease control of these three subspecies of Ralstonia syzygii .

Quantifying the dilution effect for models in ecological epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, M G; Heesterbeek, J A P

2018-03-01

The dilution effect , where an increase in biodiversity results in a reduction in the prevalence of an infectious disease, has been the subject of speculation and controversy. Conversely, an amplification effect occurs when increased biodiversity is related to an increase in prevalence. We explore the conditions under which these effects arise, using multi species compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We introduce three potential metrics for quantifying dilution and amplification, one based on infection prevalence in a focal host species, one based on the size of the infected subpopulation of that species and one based on the basic reproduction number. We introduce our approach in the simplest epidemiological setting with two species, and show that the existence and strength of a dilution effect is influenced strongly by the choices made to describe the system and the metric used to gauge the effect. We show that our method can be generalized to any number of species and to more complicated ecological and epidemiological dynamics. Our method allows a rigorous analysis of ecological systems where dilution effects have been postulated, and contributes to future progress in understanding the phenomenon of dilution in the context of infectious disease dynamics and infection risk. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

2016-01-01

Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE: DEFINITION, EPIDEMIOLOGY, PATHOPHYSIOLOGY, CLINICAL PICTURE AND TREATMENT (GOLD 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. T. Vatutin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: definition, epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical picture (GOLD 2013. Vatutin M.T., Smyrnova G.S., Taradin G.G. The represented translation of the new international guidelines (GOLD 2013 reflected the epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical picture and treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Epidemiology of Dengue Disease in Malaysia (2000–2012): A Systematic Literature Review

Science.gov (United States)

Mohd-Zaki, Abdul Hamid; Brett, Jeremy; Ismail, Ellyana; L'Azou, Maïna

2014-01-01

A literature survey and analysis was conducted to describe the epidemiology of dengue disease in Malaysia between 2000 and 2012. Published literature was searched for epidemiological studies of dengue disease, using specific search strategies for each electronic database; 237 relevant data sources were identified, 28 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The epidemiology of dengue disease in Malaysia was characterized by a non-linear increase in the number of reported cases from 7,103 in 2000 to 46,171 in 2010, and a shift in the age range predominance from children toward adults. The overall increase in dengue disease was accompanied by a rise in the number, but not the proportion, of severe cases. The dominant circulating dengue virus serotypes changed continually over the decade and differed between states. Several gaps in epidemiological knowledge were identified; in particular, studies of regional differences, age-stratified seroprevalence, and hospital admissions. Protocol registration PROSPERO #CRD42012002293 PMID:25375211

Basic concepts of epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savitz, D.A.

1984-01-01

Epidemiology can be defined simply as the science of the distribution and determinants of disease in human populations. As a descriptive tool, epidemiology can aid health care service providers, for example, in allocation of resources. In its analytic capacity, the epidemiologic approach can help identify determinants of disease through the study of human populations. Epidemiology is primarily an observational rather than experimental methodology, with corresponding strengths and limitations. Relative to other approaches for assessing disease etiology and impacts of potential health hazards, epidemiology has a rather unique role that is complementary to, but independent of, both basic biologic sciences and clinical medicine. Experimental biologic sciences such as toxicology and physiology provide critical information on biologic mechanisms of disease required for causal inference. Clinical medicine often serves as the warning system that provides etiologic clues to be pursued through systematic investigation. The advantage of the epidemiologic approach is its reliance on human field experience, that is, the real world. While laboratory experimentation is uniquely well suited to defining potential hazards, it can neither determine whether human populations have actually been affected nor quantify that effect. Building all the complexities of human behavior and external factors into a laboratory study or mathematical model is impossible. By studying the world as it exists, epidemiology examines the integrated, summarized product of the myriad factors influencing health

Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks : An epidemiological and economic model analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Backer, J. A.; van Roermund, H. J W; Fischer, Egil; van Asseldonk, M. A P M; Bergevoet, R. H M

2015-01-01

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different

Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Shu; Wang Jin

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

2018-05-01

To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology: Past, Present, and Future Impacts on Understanding Disease Dynamics and Improving Plant Disease Management-A Summary of Focus Issue Articles.

Science.gov (United States)

Ojiambo, P S; Yuen, J; van den Bosch, F; Madden, L V

2017-10-01

Epidemiology has made significant contributions to plant pathology by elucidating the general principles underlying the development of disease epidemics. This has resulted in a greatly improved theoretical and empirical understanding of the dynamics of disease epidemics in time and space, predictions of disease outbreaks or the need for disease control in real-time basis, and tactical and strategic solutions to disease problems. Availability of high-resolution experimental data at multiple temporal and spatial scales has now provided a platform to test and validate theories on the spread of diseases at a wide range of spatial scales ranging from the local to the landscape level. Relatively new approaches in plant disease epidemiology, ranging from network to information theory, coupled with the availability of large-scale datasets and the rapid development of computer technology, are leading to revolutionary thinking about epidemics that can result in considerable improvement of strategic and tactical decision making in the control and management of plant diseases. Methods that were previously restricted to topics such as population biology or evolution are now being employed in epidemiology to enable a better understanding of the forces that drive the development of plant disease epidemics in space and time. This Focus Issue of Phytopathology features research articles that address broad themes in epidemiology including social and political consequences of disease epidemics, decision theory and support, pathogen dispersal and disease spread, disease assessment and pathogen biology and disease resistance. It is important to emphasize that these articles are just a sample of the types of research projects that are relevant to epidemiology. Below, we provide a succinct summary of the articles that are published in this Focus Issue .

Epidemiological models to support animal disease surveillance activities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Paisley, Larry; Lind, Peter

2011-01-01

and models for interpreting surveillance data as part of ongoing control or eradication programmes. Two Danish examples are outlined. The first illustrates how models were used in documenting country freedom from disease (trichinellosis) and the second demonstrates how models were of assistance in predicting...... the risk of future cases, detected and undetected, of a waning infection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Both studies were successful in advancing European policy changes to reduce the cost of surveillance to appropriate levels given the magnitude of the respective hazards....

Crohn's disease in Japan: diagnostic criteria and epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, T; Matsui, T; Hiwatashi, N

2000-10-01

New diagnostic criteria for Crohn's disease and a review of Japanese epidemiologic studies are presented. New diagnostic criteria for Crohn's disease were established by the Research Committee of Inflammatory Bowel Disease, set up by the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare. For a definite diagnosis one of the following three conditions is required: 1) longitudinal ulcer or luminal deformity induced by longitudinal ulcer or cobblestone pattern, 2) intestinal small aphthous ulcerations arranged in a longitudinal fashion for at least three months plus noncaseating granulomas, and 3) multiple small aphthous ulcerations in both the upper and lower digestive tract not necessarily with longitudinal arrangement, for at least three months, plus noncaseating granulomas. Moreover, ulcerative colitis, ischemic enterocolitis, and acute infectious enterocolitis should be excluded. Data from the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare, in addition to data collected from two study groups, these being the two largest studies in Japan, are reviewed with regard to epidemiology. The number of patients with Crohn's disease has increased remarkably. The prevalence and the annual incidence of patients with Crohn's disease in Japan were estimated to be approximately 2.9 and 0.6 per 10(5) population in 1986, respectively, and 13.5 and 1.2 per 10(5) population in 1998. Characteristic features of Crohn's disease in Japan are that the male-female ratio exceeds 2, and that there is no second peak of incidence in the age group of 55 to 65 years. Clinically, Crohn's disease with only multiple small aphthous ulcerations, which is the earliest stage of the disease that is diagnosable, was found in 5 percent of patients.

An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health

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Rebecca Mancy

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms, how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Mancy, Rebecca; Brock, Patrick M; Kao, Rowland R

2017-01-01

Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows) or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms), how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

Spatial epidemiological techniques in cholera mapping and analysis towards a local scale predictive modelling

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Rasam, A. R. A.; Ghazali, R.; Noor, A. M. M.; Mohd, W. M. N. W.; Hamid, J. R. A.; Bazlan, M. J.; Ahmad, N.

2014-02-01

Cholera spatial epidemiology is the study of the spread and control of the disease spatial pattern and epidemics. Previous studies have shown that multi-factorial causation such as human behaviour, ecology and other infectious risk factors influence the disease outbreaks. Thus, understanding spatial pattern and possible interrelationship factors of the outbreaks are crucial to be explored an in-depth study. This study focuses on the integration of geographical information system (GIS) and epidemiological techniques in exploratory analyzing the cholera spatial pattern and distribution in the selected district of Sabah. Spatial Statistic and Pattern tools in ArcGIS and Microsoft Excel software were utilized to map and analyze the reported cholera cases and other data used. Meanwhile, cohort study in epidemiological technique was applied to investigate multiple outcomes of the disease exposure. The general spatial pattern of cholera was highly clustered showed the disease spread easily at a place or person to others especially 1500 meters from the infected person and locations. Although the cholera outbreaks in the districts are not critical, it could be endemic at the crowded areas, unhygienic environment, and close to contaminated water. It was also strongly believed that the coastal water of the study areas has possible relationship with the cholera transmission and phytoplankton bloom since the areas recorded higher cases. GIS demonstrates a vital spatial epidemiological technique in determining the distribution pattern and elucidating the hypotheses generating of the disease. The next research would be applying some advanced geo-analysis methods and other disease risk factors for producing a significant a local scale predictive risk model of the disease in Malaysia.

Spatial epidemiological techniques in cholera mapping and analysis towards a local scale predictive modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasam, A R A; Ghazali, R; Noor, A M M; Mohd, W M N W; Hamid, J R A; Bazlan, M J; Ahmad, N

2014-01-01

Cholera spatial epidemiology is the study of the spread and control of the disease spatial pattern and epidemics. Previous studies have shown that multi-factorial causation such as human behaviour, ecology and other infectious risk factors influence the disease outbreaks. Thus, understanding spatial pattern and possible interrelationship factors of the outbreaks are crucial to be explored an in-depth study. This study focuses on the integration of geographical information system (GIS) and epidemiological techniques in exploratory analyzing the cholera spatial pattern and distribution in the selected district of Sabah. Spatial Statistic and Pattern tools in ArcGIS and Microsoft Excel software were utilized to map and analyze the reported cholera cases and other data used. Meanwhile, cohort study in epidemiological technique was applied to investigate multiple outcomes of the disease exposure. The general spatial pattern of cholera was highly clustered showed the disease spread easily at a place or person to others especially 1500 meters from the infected person and locations. Although the cholera outbreaks in the districts are not critical, it could be endemic at the crowded areas, unhygienic environment, and close to contaminated water. It was also strongly believed that the coastal water of the study areas has possible relationship with the cholera transmission and phytoplankton bloom since the areas recorded higher cases. GIS demonstrates a vital spatial epidemiological technique in determining the distribution pattern and elucidating the hypotheses generating of the disease. The next research would be applying some advanced geo-analysis methods and other disease risk factors for producing a significant a local scale predictive risk model of the disease in Malaysia

Epidemiological features and trends of Ebola virus disease in West Africa

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Ligui Wang

2015-09-01

Full Text Available According to a World Health Organization report, the epidemiological features of Ebola virus disease (EVD have changed significantly in West Africa. In this study, the new epidemiological features and prevalence trends for EVD in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are described. It was predicted that the Ebola outbreak would end in June 2015.

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

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Kausrud Kyrre

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. Results We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus, over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. Conclusions Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades. See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108

Epidemiological studies in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and comorbidity of the rheumatic diseases

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Gabriel, Sherine E; Michaud, Kaleb

2009-01-01

Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of disease in human populations. Over the past decade there has been considerable progress in our understanding of the fundamental descriptive epidemiology (levels of disease frequency: incidence and prevalence, comorbidity, mortality, trends over time, geographic distributions, and clinical characteristics) of the rheumatic diseases. This progress is reviewed for the following major rheumatic diseases: rheumatoid arthritis (RA), juvenile rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, osteoarthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, giant cell arteritis, polymyalgia rheumatica, gout, Sjögren's syndrome, and ankylosing spondylitis. These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the incidence and prevalence of these conditions – a reflection of the impact of genetic and environmental factors. The past decade has also brought new insights regarding the comorbidity associated with rheumatic diseases. Strong evidence now shows that persons with RA are at a high risk for developing several comorbid disorders, that these conditions may have atypical features and thus may be difficult to diagnose, and that persons with RA experience poorer outcomes after comorbidity compared with the general population. Taken together, these findings underscore the complexity of the rheumatic diseases and highlight the key role of epidemiological research in understanding these intriguing conditions. PMID:19519924

Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python.

Science.gov (United States)

Irvine, Michael A; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

2018-05-26

Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adaptive approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit a variety of epidemiologically relevant data with minimal hyper-parameter tuning by using an adaptive tolerance scheme. We implement a novel kernel density estimation scheme to capture both dispersed and multi-dimensional data, and directly compare this technique to standard Bayesian approaches. We then apply the procedure to a complex individual-based simulation of lymphatic filariasis, a human parasitic disease. The procedure and examples are released alongside this article as an open access library, with examples to aid researchers to rapidly fit models to data. This demonstrates that an adaptive ABC scheme with a general summary and distance metric is capable of performing model fitting for a variety of epidemiological data. It also does not require significant theoretical background to use and can be made accessible to the diverse epidemiological research community. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kidney disease and obesity: epidemiology, mechanisms and treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Câmara, Niels Olsen Saraiva; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Kramer, Holly; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Sharma, Kumar

2017-03-01

The theme of World Kidney Day 2017 is 'kidney disease and obesity: healthy lifestyle for healthy kidneys'. To mark this event, Nature Reviews Nephrology invited five leading researchers to describe changes in the epidemiology of obesity-related kidney disease, advances in current understanding of the mechanisms and current approaches to the management of affected patients. The researchers also highlight new advances that could lead to the development of novel treatments and identify areas in which further basic and clinical studies are needed.

Global Stability of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Time Delay and Saturation Incidence

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Shuxue Mao

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate a delayed eco-epidemiological model with disease in predator and saturation incidence. First, by comparison arguments, the permanence of the model is discussed. Then, we study the local stability of each equilibrium of the model by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations and find that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay τ passes through a sequence of critical values. Next, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the disease-free planar equilibrium and the positive equilibrium. Numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the analytical results.

The history and epidemiology of Cape St Paul wilt disease of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The history of the spread of the Cape St. Paul Wilt (lethal yellowing) disease of coconut in Ghana is presented. Epidemiological studies showed that the disease starts slowly, then progresses (accelerate) rapidly before levelling off. In a farm, the disease first appears randomly on single trees, foci then develop around these ...

Contesting lifestyle risk and gendering coronary candidacy: lay epidemiology of heart disease in Finland in the 1970s.

Science.gov (United States)

Jauho, Mikko

2017-09-01

This study addresses two issues currently under critical discussion in the epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), the relative neglect of women and the individualised nature of key risk factors. It focuses on the North Karelia project (NKP), a community programme aimed at coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention in a predominantly rural Finnish region in the early 1970s, that is, during a period when the epidemiological understanding of CVD still was relatively new and actively promoted. Adopting the notions of lay epidemiology and coronary candidacy, culturally mediated explanatory models lay people use to assess who is likely to develop heart disease and why, the study shows that locals targeted by the project critically engaged with both of these bias. Based on the rich materials resulting from project activities the study shows, first, how many locals subsumed the individualised and lifestyle-based approach to CHD prevention promoted by NKP under a more general framework emphasising the health effects of ongoing structural changes in the area, and second, how women constructed themselves as viable coronary candidates. The case supports the position in the current discussions on lay expertise that wants to integrate lay experiences more firmly into epidemiological studies and public health. © 2017 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

[Analysis of projects of infectious disease epidemiology sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China].

Science.gov (United States)

Jian-Ming, Wang; Yan-Kai, Xia; Hui-Juan, Zhu; Feng, Chen; Hong-Bing, Shen

2016-05-10

To analyze the projects on the infectious disease epidemiology sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), explore the hotspot and development trend, and offer a reference for researchers in this field. Based on the NSFC database, the projects on the infectious disease epidemiology (H2609) sponsored from 1987 to 2014 were analyzed. The changes of fund numbers, amounts and research fields were described. During the study period, NSFC sponsored 373 projects, including 228 general projects (61.1%), 78 youth projects (20.9%) and 67 other projects (18.0%). The average amount of the grant was 358.2 thousand Yuan (20 thousand-8 million). The main sponsored research fields were mechanisms of pathogen and immunity (36.2%) and population-based epidemiological studies (33.0%). The top three diseases were hepatitis, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. The amount of funding on researches of infectious disease epidemiology has increased continuously, which has played an important role in training scientific talents in the field of prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Bioeconomic modelling of foot and mouth disease and its control in Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jemberu, W.T.

2016-01-01

Keywords: Control, cost-benefit, economic impact, epidemiology, Ethiopia, Foot and mouth disease, intention, modelling, production system.

Bioeconomic Modelling of Foot and Mouth Disease and Its control in Ethiopia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a

Strategies for control of sudden oak death in Humboldt County-informed guidance based on a parameterized epidemiological model

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João A. N. Filipe; Richard C. Cobb; David M. Rizzo; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A.. Gilligan

2010-01-01

Landscape- to regional-scale models of plant epidemics are direly needed to predict largescale impacts of disease and assess practicable options for control. While landscape heterogeneity is recognized as a major driver of disease dynamics, epidemiological models are rarely applied to realistic landscape conditions due to computational and data limitations. Here we...

Epidemiology of Chagas disease in Ecuador. A brief review

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Aguilar V H Marcelo

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease is a complex public health problem that has been underestimated in Ecuador. Here we review the relevant published information, and present unpublished and new data that help to understand the current Chagas disease epidemiological situation and its evolution in the country. Three main characteristics have been identified: (i persistence of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in already known foci; (ii a marked endemicity in some urban areas of Guayaquil; and (iii the transformation of new Amazon foci into truly endemic areas. The situation in other suspect areas remains uncertain. Five Triatominae species have been implicated in the transmission of T. cruzi to people in Ecuador (Triatoma dimidiata, Rhodnius ecuadoriensis, R. pictipes, R. robustus and Panstrongylus geniculatus, but some others may also play a role in some areas (P. rufotuberculatus, P. howardi, T. carrioni and P. chinai. Other Triatominae reported seem to have little or no epidemiological relevance (T. venosa, T. dispar, Eratyrus mucronatus, E. cuspidatus, P. lignarius and Cavernicola pilosa. High frequency of acute cases and severe chronic disease has been observed. Although cardiomyopathy is more frequent, serious digestive disease is also present. It is estimated that around 120,000-200,000 people may be infected. 2.2 to 3.8 million people are estimated to live under transmission risk conditions.

Epidemiology of the Emergent Disease Paridae pox in an Intensively Studied Wild Bird Population

Science.gov (United States)

Lachish, Shelly; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2012-01-01

Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations. PMID:23185230

Epidemiology of the emergent disease Paridae pox in an intensively studied wild bird population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shelly Lachish

Full Text Available Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%, but was far less prevalent (<1% in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations.

Causal models in epidemiology: past inheritance and genetic future

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Kriebel David

2006-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract The eruption of genetic research presents a tremendous opportunity to epidemiologists to improve our ability to identify causes of ill health. Epidemiologists have enthusiastically embraced the new tools of genomics and proteomics to investigate gene-environment interactions. We argue that neither the full import nor limitations of such studies can be appreciated without clarifying underlying theoretical models of interaction, etiologic fraction, and the fundamental concept of causality. We therefore explore different models of causality in the epidemiology of disease arising out of genes, environments, and the interplay between environments and genes. We begin from Rothman's "pie" model of necessary and sufficient causes, and then discuss newer approaches, which provide additional insights into multifactorial causal processes. These include directed acyclic graphs and structural equation models. Caution is urged in the application of two essential and closely related concepts found in many studies: interaction (effect modification and the etiologic or attributable fraction. We review these concepts and present four important limitations. 1. Interaction is a fundamental characteristic of any causal process involving a series of probabilistic steps, and not a second-order phenomenon identified after first accounting for "main effects". 2. Standard methods of assessing interaction do not adequately consider the life course, and the temporal dynamics through which an individual's sufficient cause is completed. Different individuals may be at different stages of development along the path to disease, but this is not usually measurable. Thus, for example, acquired susceptibility in children can be an important source of variation. 3. A distinction must be made between individual-based and population-level models. Most epidemiologic discussions of causality fail to make this distinction. 4. At the population level, there is additional

An ethical assessment model for digital disease detection technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Denecke, Kerstin

2017-09-20

Digital epidemiology, also referred to as digital disease detection (DDD), successfully provided methods and strategies for using information technology to support infectious disease monitoring and surveillance or understand attitudes and concerns about infectious diseases. However, Internet-based research and social media usage in epidemiology and healthcare pose new technical, functional and formal challenges. The focus of this paper is on the ethical issues to be considered when integrating digital epidemiology with existing practices. Taking existing ethical guidelines and the results from the EU project M-Eco and SORMAS as starting point, we develop an ethical assessment model aiming at providing support in identifying relevant ethical concerns in future DDD projects. The assessment model has four dimensions: user, application area, data source and methodology. The model supports in becoming aware, identifying and describing the ethical dimensions of DDD technology or use case and in identifying the ethical issues on the technology use from different perspectives. It can be applied in an interdisciplinary meeting to collect different viewpoints on a DDD system even before the implementation starts and aims at triggering discussions and finding solutions for risks that might not be acceptable even in the development phase. From the answers, ethical issues concerning confidence, privacy, data and patient security or justice may be judged and weighted.

Understanding disease control: influence of epidemiological and economic factors.

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Katarzyna Oleś

Full Text Available We present a model of disease transmission on a regular and small world network and compare different control options. Comparison is based on a total cost of epidemic, including cost of palliative treatment of ill individuals and preventive cost aimed at vaccination or culling of susceptible individuals. Disease is characterized by pre-symptomatic phase, which makes detection and control difficult. Three general strategies emerge: global preventive treatment, local treatment within a neighborhood of certain size and only palliative treatment with no prevention. While the choice between the strategies depends on a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatment, the details of the local strategy and, in particular, the size of the optimal treatment neighborhood depend on the epidemiological factors. The required extent of prevention is proportional to the size of the infection neighborhood, but depends on time till detection and time till treatment in a non-nonlinear (power law. The optimal size of control neighborhood is also highly sensitive to the relative cost, particularly for inefficient detection and control application. These results have important consequences for design of prevention strategies aiming at emerging diseases for which parameters are not nessecerly known in advance.

Epidemiology of infectious diseases transmitted by drinking water in developed countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartemann, P; Newman, R; Foliguet, J M

1986-01-01

Research on the epidemiology of infectious diseases attributable to drinking water, common in the US during the past 20 years at least, is not yet really widespread in France. The role played by water in the transmission of certain infectious agents was important in European countries during past centuries but at present the incidence of waterborne diseases can be considered as very low. The absence of well-established data is due to the difficulty in reporting correctly a few minor outbreaks in a situation of very low endemicity. After a survey of the reported outbreaks, this paper deals with risk assessment of waterborne diseases in developed countries as well as special problems linked with proving transmission via water and with the nature of the infectious agents, and the development of monitoring methods for increasing our knowledge of this epidemiology.

An introduction to mathematical modeling of infectious diseases

CERN Document Server

Li, Michael Y

2018-01-01

This text provides essential modeling skills and methodology for the study of infectious diseases through a one-semester modeling course or directed individual studies.  The book includes mathematical descriptions of epidemiological concepts, and uses classic epidemic models to introduce different mathematical methods in model analysis.  Matlab codes are also included for numerical implementations. It is primarily written for upper undergraduate and beginning graduate students in mathematical sciences who have an interest in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.  Although written in a rigorous mathematical manner, the style is not unfriendly to non-mathematicians.

Genesis of Preeclampsia: An Epidemiological Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Salvador-Moysén, Jaime; Martínez-López, Yolanda; Ramírez-Aranda, José M.; Aguilar-Durán, Marisela; Terrones-González, Alberto

2012-01-01

There are analyzed some of the main aspects related to the causality of preeclampsia, privileging two types of models: the clinic model and the epidemiologic model, first one represented by the hypothesis of the reduced placental perfusion and the second one considering the epidemiologic findings related to the high levels of psychosocial stress and its association with preeclampsia. It is reasoned out the relevance of raising the causality of the disease from an interdisciplinary perspective, integrating the valuable information generated from both types, clinical and epidemiologic, and finally a tentative explanatory model of preeclampsia is proposed, the subclinical and sociocultural aspects that predispose and trigger the disease are emphasized making aspects to stand out: the importance of reduced placental perfusion as an indicator of individual risk, and the high levels of physiological stress, as a result of the unfavorable conditions of the psychosocial surroundings (indicator of population risk) of the pregnant women. PMID:22462008

Chagas’ disease: an emergent urban zoonosis. The Caracas Valley (Venezuela as an epidemiological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Servio eUrdaneta-Morales

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The unprecedented emergence of important public health and veterinary zoonoses is usually a result of exponential population growth and globalization of human activities. I characterized Chagas´ disease as an emergent zoonosis in the Caracas Valley (Venezuela due to the following findings: the presence of reservoirs (Didelphis marsupialis, Rattus rattus and vectors (Panstrongylus geniculatus, P. rufotuberculatus infected with Trypanosoma cruzi in urbanized or marginalized areas; the elevated contact between P. geniculatus and humans detected by parasitological and molecular examinations of triatomine faeces demonstrated the possibility of transmission risks; a study of outbreaks of urban Chagas´ disease reported the first proven cases of oral transmission of T. cruzi to humans; the risk of transmission of glandular metacyclic stages from marsupials by experimental ocular and oral instillation; mice genitalia infected with T. cruzi contaminated blood resulted in the formation of amastigotes very close to the lumen suggesting that there may be a possibility of infection via their release into the urine and thence to the exterior; the ubiquitous histotropism and histopathology of T. cruzi was demonstrated using a mouse model; the presence of experimental T. cruzi pseudocysts in adipose, bone-cartilage and eye tissue indicated a potential risk for transplants. Socio-sanitary programs that include improvements in housing, vector control and access to medical treatment, as well as strategies aimed at combating social inequalities, poverty and underdevelopment should be undertaken in those areas where zoonoses are most prevalent. Disciplines such as Ecology, Epidemiology, Medical Entomology, Human and Veterinary Medicine, Environmental Studies, Public Health, Social and Political Studies, Immunology, Microbiology and Pharmacology, could all provide important contributions that aim to reduce the occurrence of factors governing the spread of emergent

[Gender issues in the epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Härtel, Ursula

2007-06-01

In the last decade our knowledge about sex differences in the epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases has substantially increased. However; most information relates to coronary heart disease, and relatively little information is available on other forms of heart disease or cerebrovascular diseases. In the present paper, first, the age-adjusted mortality and morbidity rates of men and women across different European countries will be described as well as differences in case-fatality after myocardial infarction. Second, gender differences regarding the impact of traditional and novel risk factors on the development of coronary heart disease will be addressed, together with recent evidence from cardiac rehabilitation research. In general, we can say that significant sex differences exist at each stage of coronary heart disease, which need to be taken into account in primary prevention, acute therapy, and long-term rehabilitation. Further research is required on other forms of cardiovascular diseases, which are more prevalent among women than among men, especially in higher age groups.

Epidemiological monitoring for emerging infectious diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, Marjorie

2010-04-01

The Homeland Security News Wire has been reporting on new ways to fight epidemics using digital tools such as iPhone, social networks, Wikipedia, and other Internet sites. Instant two-way communication now gives consumers the ability to complement official reports on emerging infectious diseases from health authorities. However, there is increasing concern that these communications networks could open the door to mass panic from unreliable or false reports. There is thus an urgent need to ensure that epidemiological monitoring for emerging infectious diseases gives health authorities the capability to identify, analyze, and report disease outbreaks in as timely and efficient a manner as possible. One of the dilemmas in the global dissemination of information on infectious diseases is the possibility that information overload will create inefficiencies as the volume of Internet-based surveillance information increases. What is needed is a filtering mechanism that will retrieve relevant information for further analysis by epidemiologists, laboratories, and other health organizations so they are not overwhelmed with irrelevant information and will be able to respond quickly. This paper introduces a self-organizing ontology that could be used as a filtering mechanism to increase relevance and allow rapid analysis of disease outbreaks as they evolve in real time.

The Epidemiology of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Koh, Wee Ming; Bogich, Tiffany; Siegel, Karen; Jin, Jing; Chong, Elizabeth Y.; Tan, Chong Yew; Chen, Mark IC; Horby, Peter

2016-01-01

Context: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread pediatric disease caused primarily by human enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Objective: This study reports a systematic review of the epidemiology of HFMD in Asia. Data Sources: PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched up to December 2014. Study Selection: Two reviewers independently assessed studies for epidemiologic and serologic information about prevalence and incidence of HFMD against predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Data Extraction: Two reviewers extracted answers for 8 specific research questions on HFMD epidemiology. The results are checked by 3 others. Results: HFMD is found to be seasonal in temperate Asia with a summer peak and in subtropical Asia with spring and fall peaks, but not in tropical Asia; evidence of a climatic role was identified for temperate Japan. Risk factors for HFMD include hygiene, age, gender and social contacts, but most studies were underpowered to adjust rigorously for confounding variables. Both community-level and school-level transmission have been implicated, but their relative importance for HFMD is inconclusive. Epidemiologic indices are poorly understood: No supporting quantitative evidence was found for the incubation period of EV-A71; the symptomatic rate of EV-A71/Coxsackievirus A16 infection was from 10% to 71% in 4 studies; while the basic reproduction number was between 1.1 and 5.5 in 3 studies. The uncertainty in these estimates inhibits their use for further analysis. Limitations: Diversity of study designs complicates attempts to identify features of HFMD epidemiology. Conclusions: Knowledge on HFMD remains insufficient to guide interventions such as the incorporation of an EV-A71 vaccine in pediatric vaccination schedules. Research is urgently needed to fill these gaps. PMID:27273688

Landscape epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases in natural and human-altered ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Ross K. Meentemeyer; Sarah Haas; Tomáš Václavík

2013-01-01

A central challenge to studying emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) is a landscape dilemma: our best empirical understanding of disease dynamics occurs at local scales while pathogen invasions and management occur over broad spatial extents. The burgeoning field of landscape epidemiology integrates concepts and approaches from disease ecology with the macro-scale lens...

Classification and prediction of river network ephemerality and its relevance for waterborne disease epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Larsen, Joshua; Ceperley, Natalie; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-12-01

hydrologic drivers within epidemiological models of waterborne disease transmission.

Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases : a bio-economic modeling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breukers, M.L.H.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Werf, van der W.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

2008-01-01

This article describes a bio-economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost-effectiveness, taking

Homocyst(e)ine and cardiovascular disease: a critical review of the epidemiologic evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Eikelboom, J W; Lonn, E; Genest, J; Hankey, G; Yusuf, S

1999-09-07

To review epidemiologic studies on the association between homocyst(e)ine level and risk for cardiovascular disease and the potential benefits of homocysteine-decreasing therapies. Computerized and manual searches of the literature on total homocysteine levels and cardiovascular disease. Prospective studies and major retrospective epidemiologic studies evaluating the association between homocyst(e)ine levels and cardiovascular disease and the association between blood levels or dietary intake of folate, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 and cardiovascular disease. Relevant data on patient population, plasma homocyst(e)ine levels, duration of follow-up, and main results were extracted from studies that met the inclusion criteria. The designs and results of studies included in this review are summarized. A formal meta-analysis was not performed because the studies were heterogeneous in method and design. Results of epidemiologic studies suggest that moderately elevated plasma or serum homocyst(e)ine levels are prevalent in the general population and are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, independent of classic cardiovascular risk factors. Simple, inexpensive, nontoxic therapy with folic acid, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 reduces plasma homocyst(e)ine levels. Although the association between homocyst(e)ine levels and cardiovascular disease is generally strong and biologically plausible, the data from the prospective studies are less consistent. In addition, epidemiologic observations of an association between hyperhomocyst(e)inemia and cardiovascular risk do not prove the existence of a causal relation. Therefore, the effectiveness of folate, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 in reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality requires rigorous testing in randomized clinical trials. Several such trials are under way; their results may greatly affect cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, given the simplicity and low cost of vitamin therapy.

Invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology and control measures: a framework for evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Coudeville L

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Meningococcal disease can have devastating consequences. As new vaccines emerge, it is necessary to assess their impact on public health. In the absence of long-term real world data, modeling the effects of different vaccination strategies is required. Discrete event simulation provides a flexible platform with which to conduct such evaluations. Methods A discrete event simulation of the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease was developed to quantify the potential impact of implementing routine vaccination of adolescents in the United States with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine protecting against serogroups A, C, Y, and W-135. The impact of vaccination is assessed including both the direct effects on individuals vaccinated and the indirect effects resulting from herd immunity. The simulation integrates a variety of epidemiologic and demographic data, with core information on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and outbreak frequency derived from data available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Simulation of the potential indirect benefits of vaccination resulting from herd immunity draw on data from the United Kingdom, where routine vaccination with a conjugate vaccine has been in place for a number of years. Cases of disease are modeled along with their health consequences, as are the occurrence of disease outbreaks. Results When run without a strategy of routine immunization, the simulation accurately predicts the age-specific incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and the site-specific frequency of outbreaks in the Unite States. 2,807 cases are predicted annually, resulting in over 14,000 potential life years lost due to invasive disease. In base case analyses of routine vaccination, life years lost due to infection are reduced by over 45% (to 7,600 when routinely vaccinating adolescents 12 years of age at 70% coverage. Sensitivity analyses indicate that herd immunity plays

Integrating the landscape epidemiology and genetics of RNA viruses: rabies in domestic dogs as a model.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunker, K; Hampson, K; Horton, D L; Biek, R

2012-12-01

Landscape epidemiology and landscape genetics combine advances in molecular techniques, spatial analyses and epidemiological models to generate a more real-world understanding of infectious disease dynamics and provide powerful new tools for the study of RNA viruses. Using dog rabies as a model we have identified how key questions regarding viral spread and persistence can be addressed using a combination of these techniques. In contrast to wildlife rabies, investigations into the landscape epidemiology of domestic dog rabies requires more detailed assessment of the role of humans in disease spread, including the incorporation of anthropogenic landscape features, human movements and socio-cultural factors into spatial models. In particular, identifying and quantifying the influence of anthropogenic features on pathogen spread and measuring the permeability of dispersal barriers are important considerations for planning control strategies, and may differ according to cultural, social and geographical variation across countries or continents. Challenges for dog rabies research include the development of metapopulation models and transmission networks using genetic information to uncover potential source/sink dynamics and identify the main routes of viral dissemination. Information generated from a landscape genetics approach will facilitate spatially strategic control programmes that accommodate for heterogeneities in the landscape and therefore utilise resources in the most cost-effective way. This can include the efficient placement of vaccine barriers, surveillance points and adaptive management for large-scale control programmes.

Epidemiology of non-tumor diseases in Chernobyl clean-up workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzunov, V.A.; Pirogova, E.A.; Tereshchenko, V.M.; Krasnikova, L.I.; Vojchulene, Yu.S.

2004-01-01

Epidemiological study of non-tumor diseases in Chernobyl clean-up workers was effectuated on the materials of State Registry of Ukraine for Victims of Chernobyl NPP Accident. Percent of healthy people among the clean-up workers of 1986 - 1987 decreased from 67.6% in 1988 to 9.6% in 1998, patients with chronic diseases increased from 12,8% in 1988 to 79,1% in 1998. Quantitative risk-analysis proves to possible relationship with absorbed doses prevalences of diseases of blood and hemopoietic organs, coronary hearth disease, cerebrovascular diseases, thyroid pathology. The age at the time of investigation, tobacco smoking and stress were statistically significant non-radiation factors of relative risk

Human Genome Epidemiology : A scientific foundation for using genetic information to improve health and prevent disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefania Boccia

2005-03-01

Full Text Available

Human health is determined by the interplay of genetic factors and the environment. In this context the recent advances in human genomics are expected to play a central role in medicine and public health by providing genetic information for disease prediction and prevention.

After the completion of the human genome sequencing, a fundamental step will be represented by the translation of these discoveries into meaningful actions to improve health and prevent diseases, and the field of epidemiology plays a central role in this effort. These are some of the issues addressed by Human Genome Epidemiology –A scientific foundation for using genetic information to improve health and prevent disease, a volume edited by Prof. M. Khoury, Prof. J. Little, Prof.W. Burke and published by Oxford university Press 2004.

This book describes the important role that epidemiological methods play in the continuum from gene discovery to the development and application of genetic tests. The Authors calls this continuum human genome epidemiology (HuGE to denote an evolving field of inquiry that uses systematic applications of epidemiological methods to assess the impact of human genetic variation on health and disease.

The book is divided into four sections and it is structured to allow readers to proceed systematically from the fundamentals of genome technology and discovery, to the epidemiological approaches, to gene characterisation, to the evaluation of genetic tests and their use in health services and public health.

The household contact study design for genetic epidemiological studies of infectious diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine eStein

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Most genetic epidemiological study designs fall into one of two categories: family-based and population-based (case-control. However, recent advances in statistical genetics call for study designs that combine these two approaches. We describe the household contact study design as we have applied it in our several years of study of the epidemiology of tuberculosis. Though we highlight its applicability for genetic epidemiological studies of infectious diseases, there are many facets of this design that are appealing for modern genetic studies, including the simultaneous enrollment of related and unrelated individuals, closely and distantly related individuals, collection of extensive epidemiologic and phenotypic data, and evaluation of effects of shared environment and gene by environment interaction. These study design characteristics are particularly appealing for current sequencing studies.

Stability analysis on an economic epidemiological model with vaccination Pages : - , and.

Science.gov (United States)

Avusuglo, Wisdom S; Abdella, Kenzu; Feng, Wenying

2017-08-01

In this paper, an economic epidemiological model with vaccination is studied. The stability of the endemic steady-state is analyzed and some bifurcation properties of the system are investigated. It is established that the system exhibits saddle-point and period-doubling bifurcations when adult susceptible individuals are vaccinated. Furthermore, it is shown that susceptible individuals also have the tendency of opting for more number of contacts even if the vaccine is inefficacious and thus causes the disease endemic to increase in the long run. Results from sensitivity analysis with specific disease parameters are also presented. Finally, it is shown that the qualitative behaviour of the system is affected by contact levels.

Microbiology and Epidemiology of Legionnaire's Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Burillo, Almudena; Pedro-Botet, María Luisa; Bouza, Emilio

2017-03-01

Legionnaire's disease (LD) is the pneumonic form of legionellosis caused by aerobic gram-negative bacilli of the genus Legionella. Individuals become infected when they inhale aerosolized water droplets contaminated with Legionella species. Forty years after the identification of Legionella pneumophila as the cause of the 1976 pneumonia outbreak in a hotel in Philadelphia, we have non-culture-based diagnostic tests, effective antibiotics, and preventive measures to handle LD. With a mortality rate still around 10%, underreporting, and sporadic outbreaks, there is still much work to be done. In this article, the authors review the microbiology, laboratory diagnosis, and epidemiology of LD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 2 - Epidemiology, Wildlife and Economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Knight-Jones, T J D; Robinson, L; Charleston, B; Rodriguez, L L; Gay, C G; Sumption, K J; Vosloo, W

2016-06-01

We assessed knowledge gaps in foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) research, and in this study, we consider (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) economics. The study took the form of a literature review (2011-2015) combined with research updates collected in 2014 from 33 institutes from across the world. Findings were used to identify priority areas for future FMD research. During 2011-2015, modelling studies were dominant in the broad field of epidemiology; however, continued efforts are required to develop robust models for use during outbreaks in FMD-free countries, linking epidemiologic and economics models. More guidance is needed for both the evaluation and the setting of targets for vaccine coverage, population immunity and vaccine field efficacy. Similarly, methods for seroprevalence studies need to be improved to obtain more meaningful outputs that allow comparison across studies. To inform control programmes in endemic countries, field trials assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in extensive smallholder systems should be performed to determine whether FMD can be controlled with quality vaccines in settings where implementing effective biosecurity is challenging. Studies need to go beyond measuring only vaccine effects and should extend our knowledge of the impact of FMD and increase our understanding of how to maximize farmer participation in disease control. Where wildlife reservoirs of virus exist, particularly African Buffalo, we need to better understand when and under what circumstances transmission to domestic animals occurs in order to manage this risk appropriately, considering the impact of control measures on livelihoods and wildlife. For settings where FMD eradication is unfeasible, further ground testing of commodity-based trade is recommended. A thorough review of global FMD control programmes, covering successes and failures, would be extremely valuable and could be used to guide other control programmes. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joffe Michael

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s. Transmitted causes ("causes of causes" tend not to be systematically analysed. The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties. The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets. Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Joffe, Michael; Gambhir, Manoj; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Vineis, Paolo

2012-03-19

Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed.The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties.The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets.Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

Legionnaires' disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ulleryd, Peter; Hugosson, Anna; Allestam, Görel; Bernander, Sverker; Claesson, Berndt E B; Eilertz, Ingrid; Hagaeus, Anne-Christine; Hjorth, Martin; Johansson, Agneta; de Jong, Birgitta; Lindqvist, Anna; Nolskog, Peter; Svensson, Nils

2012-11-21

An outbreak of Legionnaires' Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 - 88) and 22 (69%) were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods.The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak.

Legionnaires’ disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background An outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Methods Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Results Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 – 88) and 22 (69%) were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Conclusions Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods. The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak. PMID:23171054

Legionnaires’ disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulleryd Peter

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Methods Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Results Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 – 88 and 22 (69% were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Conclusions Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods. The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak.

Viral marketing as epidemiological model

OpenAIRE

Rodrigues, Helena Sofia; Fonseca, Manuel

2015-01-01

In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of...

[Epidemiologic findings of the etiology of psychogenic diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Franz, M; Schellberg, D; Schepank, H

1993-01-01

In an epidemiological longitudinal field study, a sample of high risk probands suffering from medium psychogenic impairment was investigated with regard to the etiological relevancy of factors influencing psychogenic disorders (psychoneuroses, character neuroses, psychosomatic and/or psychosomatic functional diseases). The study focused the question of the etiological impact of personality, life events, and social support. With theoretical reference to the psychodynamic concept of personality trained physicians and psychologists investigated 240 probands in a half standardized psychodynamic interview which included psychometric and social empiric instruments. Expert ratings and self ratings were used to assess the current psychogenic impairment. The impact of the constructs personality, critical life events, and social support on psychogenic impairment was specified in two path models. In both models psychodynamic personality variables had the highest impact on the criterium. Psychodynamically consistent, the ability to establish mature object relations and the maturity of ego functions was inversely related to the degree of psychogenic impairment, whereas an immature organisation of defense mechanisms exerted an aggravating influence on the severity of impairment. The present path analyses altogether point to a possible central etiological impact of personality and/or psychodynamic variables on the severity of psychogenic impairment.

Genetic epidemiology of Scheuermann's disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damborg, Frank; Engell, Vilhelm; Nielsen, Jan

2011-01-01

The genetic/environmental etiology of Scheuermann's disease is unclear. We estimated the heritability of the disease using an etiological model adjusted for sex and time of diagnosis, and examined whether the prevalence of Scheuermann's disease was constant over time.......The genetic/environmental etiology of Scheuermann's disease is unclear. We estimated the heritability of the disease using an etiological model adjusted for sex and time of diagnosis, and examined whether the prevalence of Scheuermann's disease was constant over time....

An immuno-epidemiological model with threshold delay: a study of the effects of multiple exposures to a pathogen.

Science.gov (United States)

Qesmi, Redouane; Heffernan, Jane M; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

An immuno-epidemiological model of pathogen transmission is developed. This model incorporates two main features: (i) the epidemiological model includes within-host pathogen dynamics for an infectious disease, (ii) the susceptible individuals to the infection experience a series of exposures via the pathogen before becoming infectious. It is shown that this model leads naturally to a system of differential delay equations of the threshold type and that these equations can be transformed, in a biologically natural way, to differential equations with state-dependent delay. An interesting dynamical behavior of the model is the bistability phenomena, when the basic reproductive ratio R0 is less than unity, which raises many new challenges to effective infection control.

Solvents and Parkinson disease: A systematic review of toxicological and epidemiological evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lock, Edward A., E-mail: e.lock@ljmu.ac.uk [Liverpool John Moores University, School of Pharmacy and Biomolecular Sciences, Byrom Street, Liverpool (United Kingdom); Zhang, Jing [University of Washington, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Seattle, WA (United States); Checkoway, Harvey [University of Washington, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States)

2013-02-01

Parkinson disease (PD) is a debilitating neurodegenerative motor disorder, with its motor symptoms largely attributable to loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. The causes of PD remain poorly understood, although environmental toxicants may play etiologic roles. Solvents are widespread neurotoxicants present in the workplace and ambient environment. Case reports of parkinsonism, including PD, have been associated with exposures to various solvents, most notably trichloroethylene (TCE). Animal toxicology studies have been conducted on various organic solvents, with some, including TCE, demonstrating potential for inducing nigral system damage. However, a confirmed animal model of solvent-induced PD has not been developed. Numerous epidemiologic studies have investigated potential links between solvents and PD, yielding mostly null or weak associations. An exception is a recent study of twins indicating possible etiologic relations with TCE and other chlorinated solvents, although findings were based on small numbers, and dose–response gradients were not observed. At present, there is no consistent evidence from either the toxicological or epidemiologic perspective that any specific solvent or class of solvents is a cause of PD. Future toxicological research that addresses mechanisms of nigral damage from TCE and its metabolites, with exposure routes and doses relevant to human exposures, is recommended. Improvements in epidemiologic research, especially with regard to quantitative characterization of long-term exposures to specific solvents, are needed to advance scientific knowledge on this topic. -- Highlights: ► The potential for organic solvents to cause Parkinson's disease has been reviewed. ► Twins study suggests etiologic relations with chlorinated solvents and Parkinson's. ► Animal studies with TCE showed potential to cause damage to dopaminergic neurons. ► Need to determine if effects in animals are relevant to human

Solvents and Parkinson disease: A systematic review of toxicological and epidemiological evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lock, Edward A.; Zhang, Jing; Checkoway, Harvey

2013-01-01

Parkinson disease (PD) is a debilitating neurodegenerative motor disorder, with its motor symptoms largely attributable to loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. The causes of PD remain poorly understood, although environmental toxicants may play etiologic roles. Solvents are widespread neurotoxicants present in the workplace and ambient environment. Case reports of parkinsonism, including PD, have been associated with exposures to various solvents, most notably trichloroethylene (TCE). Animal toxicology studies have been conducted on various organic solvents, with some, including TCE, demonstrating potential for inducing nigral system damage. However, a confirmed animal model of solvent-induced PD has not been developed. Numerous epidemiologic studies have investigated potential links between solvents and PD, yielding mostly null or weak associations. An exception is a recent study of twins indicating possible etiologic relations with TCE and other chlorinated solvents, although findings were based on small numbers, and dose–response gradients were not observed. At present, there is no consistent evidence from either the toxicological or epidemiologic perspective that any specific solvent or class of solvents is a cause of PD. Future toxicological research that addresses mechanisms of nigral damage from TCE and its metabolites, with exposure routes and doses relevant to human exposures, is recommended. Improvements in epidemiologic research, especially with regard to quantitative characterization of long-term exposures to specific solvents, are needed to advance scientific knowledge on this topic. -- Highlights: ► The potential for organic solvents to cause Parkinson's disease has been reviewed. ► Twins study suggests etiologic relations with chlorinated solvents and Parkinson's. ► Animal studies with TCE showed potential to cause damage to dopaminergic neurons. ► Need to determine if effects in animals are relevant to human exposure

Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

2016-01-01

Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology. PMID:27070316

Lessons from sea louse and salmon epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Groner, Maya L; Rogers, Luke A; Bateman, Andrew W; Connors, Brendan M; Frazer, L Neil; Godwin, Sean C; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A; Peacock, Stephanie J; Rees, Erin E; Revie, Crawford W; Schlägel, Ulrike E

2016-03-05

Effective disease management can benefit from mathematical models that identify drivers of epidemiological change and guide decision-making. This is well illustrated in the host-parasite system of sea lice and salmon, which has been modelled extensively due to the economic costs associated with sea louse infections on salmon farms and the conservation concerns associated with sea louse infections on wild salmon. Consequently, a rich modelling literature devoted to sea louse and salmon epidemiology has been developed. We provide a synthesis of the mathematical and statistical models that have been used to study the epidemiology of sea lice and salmon. These studies span both conceptual and tactical models to quantify the effects of infections on host populations and communities, describe and predict patterns of transmission and dispersal, and guide evidence-based management of wild and farmed salmon. As aquaculture production continues to increase, advances made in modelling sea louse and salmon epidemiology should inform the sustainable management of marine resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Salmonella epidemiology: A whirlwind of change.

Science.gov (United States)

Besser, John M

2018-05-01

The field of infectious disease epidemiology for Salmonella and other enteric pathogens is undergoing some of the most profound changes since the time of Kauffman and White. Rapid advances in "big data" technologies such as genomics and metagenomics are making it possible to monitor and control salmonellosis in new and exciting ways. Epidemiological methods are becoming increasingly robust through the routine use of standardized hypothesis-generating questionnaires, iterative open-ended interviewing, informational trace-backs and new modeling techniques for describing the attribution of disease to food sources. In addition, Salmonella epidemiology is facing important challenges and new opportunities due to the rapid adoption of culture independent diagnostic test panels by clinical laboratories. Where is this unprecedented wave of change taking us? This chapter will examine emerging trends in Salmonella epidemiology, and take a peek into the not-so-distant future. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases in Iran and Asia; A Mini Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Reza Safarpour

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The prevalence of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs is set to stabilize in Western Europe and North America, as opposed to its increasing trend in developing countries in Asia. The epidemiology of IBDs in areas where the incidence and prevalence are relatively low provides an opportunity for researchers to determine the unknown aspects of them. In this review article, the PubMed and MEDLINE databases were searched from 1970 to 2012 and the epidemiological aspects assessed in Iranian articles were compared with identical subjects in other Asian countries. During this period, there were 21 documented articles on IBD epidemiology in Iran and 52 in Asia. According to the present review, CTLA-gene polymorphism and male/female ratio in ulcerative colitis (UC, incidence of extra-intestinal manifestations, extent of intestinal involvement, and family history in both UC and Crohn’s disease (CD seemed to be different between Asia and Iran. In contrast, the incidence of primary sclerosing cholangitis in IBD patients and association between NO2/CARD15 mutation and CD as C3435-T allele and UC were nearly the same. The rate of IBD has increased significantly in Iran, as has that of other Asian countries during the last decade. A thorough, well-designed, population-based, multi-regional epidemiologic study seems mandatory due to the substantial demographic and characteristic variability in IBD patients in our region.

A complete categorization of multiscale models of infectious disease systems.

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Garira, Winston

2017-12-01

Modelling of infectious disease systems has entered a new era in which disease modellers are increasingly turning to multiscale modelling to extend traditional modelling frameworks into new application areas and to achieve higher levels of detail and accuracy in characterizing infectious disease systems. In this paper we present a categorization framework for categorizing multiscale models of infectious disease systems. The categorization framework consists of five integration frameworks and five criteria. We use the categorization framework to give a complete categorization of host-level immuno-epidemiological models (HL-IEMs). This categorization framework is also shown to be applicable in categorizing other types of multiscale models of infectious diseases beyond HL-IEMs through modifying the initial categorization framework presented in this study. Categorization of multiscale models of infectious disease systems in this way is useful in bringing some order to the discussion on the structure of these multiscale models.

Mathematical epidemiology

CERN Document Server

Driessche, Pauline; Wu, Jianhong

2008-01-01

Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downlo...

Epidemiologic study of Phenylketonuria disease in Lorestan province

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Azita Zafar Mohtashami

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background : Phenylketonuria (PKU is a metabolic disease with autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance caused by a deficiency or absence of the enzyme phenylalanine hydroxylase in the liver. Phenylketonuria incidence is 1 in 10,000 births. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological characteristics of phenylketonuria in Lorestan province. Materials and Methods: All 81 phenylketonuria patients known in Lorestan province up to winter 2014 were considered in this descriptive epidemiologic study. Based on the goals and variables of the study, a complete questionnaire was developed to collect data through interviews with parents and the records and they were analyzed by use of SPSS v.16 software with preparing tables and graphs and using chi-square and t-test. Results: Results showed that phenylketonuria prevalence is 4.3 out of 100,000 people in Lorestan province. Twenty of the patients (24.7% were identified through screening and 61 patients (75.3% through other methods. Forty-six of the samples (56.8% were female and 35 cases (43.2% were male. Nearly 75% of PKU patients had a positive history of consanguinity marriage in their parents. The prevalence of the disease was significantly different from other cities. Conclusion: Neonatal screening for phenylketonuria is necessary and should be done within 3-5 days of birth. In families with children suffering from PKU, prenatal diagnosis is necessary for other pregnancies.

Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 2 - epidemiology, wildlife and economics

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In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research ings in the fields of (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of foot-and- economics. Although the three sections, epidemiology, wildlife and economics are presented as separate entities, the fields are ...

History and philosophy of modern epidemiology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Hanne

2012-01-01

Epidemiological studies of chronic diseases began around the mid-20th century. Contrary to the infectious disease epidemiology which had prevailed at the beginning of the 20th century and which had focused on single agents causing individual diseases, the chronic disease epidemiology which emerge...

Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

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Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

2000-01-01

Assessments of epidemiological parameters (e.g. infection efficiency, latent period, spore production) are required for the prediction of epidemic progress, for the estimation of components of partial resistance for different host plant cultivars and for the estimation of fitness components of pa...

Chronic kidney disease of nontraditional etiology in Central America: a provisional epidemiologic case definition for surveillance and epidemiologic studies.

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Lozier, Matthew; Turcios-Ruiz, Reina Maria; Noonan, Gary; Ordunez, Pedro

2016-11-01

SYNOPSIS Over the last two decades, experts have reported a rising number of deaths caused by chronic kidney disease (CKD) along the Pacific coast of Central America, from southern Mexico to Costa Rica. However, this specific disease is not associated with traditional causes of CKD, such as aging, diabetes, or hypertension. Rather, this disease is a chronic interstitial nephritis termed chronic kidney disease of nontraditional etiology (CKDnT). According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) mortality database, there are elevated rates of deaths related to kidney disease in many of these countries, with the highest rates being reported in El Salvador and Nicaragua. This condition has been identified in certain agricultural communities, predominantly among male farmworkers. Since CKD surveillance systems in Central America are under development or nonexistent, experts and governmental bodies have recommended creating standardized case definitions for surveillance purposes to monitor and characterize this epidemiological situation. A group of experts from Central American ministries of health, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and PAHO held a workshop in Guatemala to discuss CKDnT epidemiologic case definitions. In this paper, we propose that CKD in general be identified by the standard definition internationally accepted and that a suspect case of CKDnT be defined as a person age CKDnT is defined as a suspect case with the same findings confirmed three or more months later.

Molecular epidemiology of human oral Chagas disease outbreaks in Colombia.

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Juan David Ramírez

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, displays significant genetic variability revealed by six Discrete Typing Units (TcI-TcVI. In this pathology, oral transmission represents an emerging epidemiological scenario where different outbreaks associated to food/beverages consumption have been reported in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela. In Colombia, six human oral outbreaks have been reported corroborating the importance of this transmission route. Molecular epidemiology of oral outbreaks is barely known observing the incrimination of TcI, TcII, TcIV and TcV genotypes. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: High-throughput molecular characterization was conducted performing MLMT (Multilocus Microsatellite Typing and mtMLST (mitochondrial Multilocus Sequence Typing strategies on 50 clones from ten isolates. Results allowed observing the occurrence of TcI, TcIV and mixed infection of distinct TcI genotypes. Thus, a majority of specific mitochondrial haplotypes and allelic multilocus genotypes associated to the sylvatic cycle of transmission were detected in the dataset with the foreseen presence of mitochondrial haplotypes and allelic multilocus genotypes associated to the domestic cycle of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the incrimination of sylvatic genotypes in the oral outbreaks occurred in Colombia. We observed patterns of super-infection and/or co-infection with a tailored association with the severe forms of myocarditis in the acute phase of the disease. The transmission dynamics of this infection route based on molecular epidemiology evidence was unraveled and the clinical and biological implications are discussed.

[Eco-epidemiology: towards epidemiology of complexity].

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Bizouarn, Philippe

2016-05-01

In order to solve public health problems posed by the epidemiology of risk factors centered on the individual and neglecting the causal processes linking the risk factors with the health outcomes, Mervyn Susser proposed a multilevel epidemiology called eco-epidemiology, addressing the interdependence of individuals and their connection with molecular, individual, societal, environmental levels of organization participating in the causal disease processes. The aim of this epidemiology is to integrate more than a level of organization in design, analysis and interpretation of health problems. After presenting the main criticisms of risk-factor epidemiology focused on the individual, we will try to show how eco-epidemiology and its development could help to understand the need for a broader and integrative epidemiology, in which studies designed to identify risk factors would be balanced by studies designed to answer other questions equally vital to public health. © 2016 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

Update on the epidemiology of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a systematic review

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El-Serag, Hashem B; Sweet, Stephen; Winchester, Christopher C; Dent, John

2014-01-01

Objective To update the findings of the 2005 systematic review of population-based studies assessing the epidemiology of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Design PubMed and Embase were screened for new references using the original search strings. Studies were required to be population-based, to include ≥200 individuals, to have response rates ≥50% and recall periods <12 months. GERD was defined as heartburn and/or regurgitation on at least 1 day a week, or according to the Montreal definition, or diagnosed by a clinician. Temporal and geographic trends in disease prevalence were examined using a Poisson regression model. Results 16 studies of GERD epidemiology published since the original review were found to be suitable for inclusion (15 reporting prevalence and one reporting incidence), and were added to the 13 prevalence and two incidence studies found previously. The range of GERD prevalence estimates was 18.1%–27.8% in North America, 8.8%–25.9% in Europe, 2.5%–7.8% in East Asia, 8.7%–33.1% in the Middle East, 11.6% in Australia and 23.0% in South America. Incidence per 1000 person-years was approximately 5 in the overall UK and US populations, and 0.84 in paediatric patients aged 1– 17 years in the UK. Evidence suggests an increase in GERD prevalence since 1995 (p<0.0001), particularly in North America and East Asia. Conclusions GERD is prevalent worldwide, and disease burden may be increasing. Prevalence estimates show considerable geographic variation, but only East Asia shows estimates consistently lower than 10%. PMID:23853213

Chronic kidney disease of nontraditional etiology in Central America: a provisional epidemiologic case definition for surveillance and epidemiologic studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Lozier

Full Text Available SYNOPSIS Over the last two decades, experts have reported a rising number of deaths caused by chronic kidney disease (CKD along the Pacific coast of Central America, from southern Mexico to Costa Rica. However, this specific disease is not associated with traditional causes of CKD, such as aging, diabetes, or hypertension. Rather, this disease is a chronic interstitial nephritis termed chronic kidney disease of nontraditional etiology (CKDnT. According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO mortality database, there are elevated rates of deaths related to kidney disease in many of these countries, with the highest rates being reported in El Salvador and Nicaragua. This condition has been identified in certain agricultural communities, predominantly among male farmworkers. Since CKD surveillance systems in Central America are under development or nonexistent, experts and governmental bodies have recommended creating standardized case definitions for surveillance purposes to monitor and characterize this epidemiological situation. A group of experts from Central American ministries of health, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, and PAHO held a workshop in Guatemala to discuss CKDnT epidemiologic case definitions. In this paper, we propose that CKD in general be identified by the standard definition internationally accepted and that a suspect case of CKDnT be defined as a person age < 60 years with CKD, without type 1 diabetes mellitus, hypertensive diseases, and other well-known causes of CKD. A probable case of CKDnT is defined as a suspect case with the same findings confirmed three or more months later.

Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

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Bender, Ralf

2009-01-01

Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease in the Netherlands, 1960-2012: an analysis of national surveillance data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijlsma, Merijn W.; Bekker, Vincent; Brouwer, Matthijs C.; Spanjaard, Lodewijk; van de Beek, Diederik; van der Ende, Arie

2014-01-01

Epidemiological data for invasive meningococcal disease is essential for public health policy and vaccine development. We analysed national surveillance data from the Netherlands for PorA coverage of two PorA-based meningococcal serogroup B vaccines to describe the epidemiology of invasive

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of human West Nile virus disease in South Dakota.

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Wimberly, Michael C; Giacomo, Paolla; Kightlinger, Lon; Hildreth, Michael B

2013-10-29

Despite a cold temperate climate and low human population density, the Northern Great Plains has become a persistent hot spot for human West Nile virus (WNV) disease in North America. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of WNV can provide insights into the epidemiological and ecological factors that influence disease emergence and persistence. We analyzed the 1,962 cases of human WNV disease that occurred in South Dakota from 2002-2012 to identify the geographic distribution, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability of disease risk. The geographic and seasonal patterns of WNV have changed since the invasion and initial epidemic in 2002-2003, with cases shifting toward the eastern portion of South Dakota and occurring earlier in the transmission season in more recent years. WNV cases were temporally autocorrelated at lags of up to six weeks and early season cumulative case numbers were correlated with seasonal totals, indicating the possibility of using these data for short-term early detection of outbreaks. Epidemiological data are likely to be most effective for early warning of WNV virus outbreaks if they are integrated with entomological surveillance and environmental monitoring to leverage the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of each information source.

Complex dynamics of an eco-epidemiological model with different competition coefficients and weak Allee in the predator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saifuddin, Md.; Biswas, Santanu; Samanta, Sudip; Sarkar, Susmita; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2016-01-01

The paper explores an eco-epidemiological model with weak Allee in predator, and the disease in the prey population. We consider a predator-prey model with type II functional response. The curiosity of this paper is to consider different competition coefficients within the prey population, which leads to the emergent carrying capacity. We perform the local and global stability analysis of the equilibrium points and the Hopf bifurcation analysis around the endemic equilibrium point. Further we pay attention to the chaotic dynamics which is produced by disease. Our numerical simulations reveal that the three species eco-epidemiological system without weak-Allee induced chaos from stable focus for increasing the force of infection, whereas in the presence of the weak-Allee effect, it exhibits stable solution. We conclude that chaotic dynamics can be controlled by the Allee parameter as well as the competition coefficients. We apply basic tools of non-linear dynamics such as Poincare section and maximum Lyapunov exponent to identify chaotic behavior of the system.

Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

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McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

2012-01-01

In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

Infectious disease modeling a hybrid system approach

CERN Document Server

Liu, Xinzhi

2017-01-01

This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.

[Social determinants of odontalgia in epidemiological studies: theoretical review and proposed conceptual model].

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Bastos, João Luiz Dornelles; Gigante, Denise Petrucci; Peres, Karen Glazer; Nedel, Fúlvio Borges

2007-01-01

The epidemiological literature has been limited by the absence of a theoretical framework reflecting the complexity of causal mechanisms for the occurrence of health phenomena / disease conditions. In the field of oral epidemiology, such lack of theory also prevails, since dental caries the leading topic in oral research has been often studied through a biological and reductionist viewpoint. One of the most important consequences of dental caries is dental pain (odontalgia), which has received little attention in studies with sophisticated theoretical models and powerful designs to establish causal relationships. The purpose of this study is to review the scientific literature on the determinants of odontalgia and to discuss theories proposed for the explanation of the phenomenon. Conceptual models and emerging theories on the social determinants of oral health are revised, in an attempt to build up links with the bio-psychosocial pain model, proposing a more elaborate causal model for odontalgia. The framework suggests causal pathways between social structure and oral health through material, psychosocial and behavioral pathways. Aspects of the social structure are highlighted in order to relate them to odontalgia, stressing their importance in discussions of causal relationships in oral health research.

Extraintestinal manifestations of inflammatory bowel disease: epidemiology, diagnosis, and management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Signe; Bendtzen, Klaus; Nielsen, Ole Haagen

2010-01-01

Abstract Extraintestinal manifestations occur rather frequently in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), e.g. ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). The present paper provides an overview of the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, diagnostic process, and management of rheumatic......, metabolic, dermatologic (mucocutaneous), ophthalmologic, hepatobiliary, hematologic, thromboembolic, urinary tract, pulmonary, and pancreatic extraintestinal manifestations related to IBD. Articles were identified through search of the PubMed and Embase databases, the Cochrane Library, and the web sites......', 'thromboembolism', and 'treatment'. The search was performed on English-language reviews, practical guidelines, letters, and editorials. Articles were selected based on their relevance, and additional papers were retrieved from their reference lists. Since some of the diseases discussed are uncommon, valid...

Applications and Comparisons of Four Time Series Models in Epidemiological Surveillance Data

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Young, Alistair A.; Li, Xiaosong

2014-01-01

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. PMID:24505382

Value of first trimester epidemiologic and sonographic markers as chromosome-diseases risk indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Llanusa Ruiz, Celia; Nodarse Rodriguez, Alfredo; Vazquez, Yovany Enrique; Carrillo Bermudez, Lourdes; Sanchez Lombana, Rita

2009-01-01

Prenatal screening of chromosomal anomalies using epidemiological and sonographic markers during the first trimester, allow identifying pregnant with high risk of chromosome disease; we offer the cytogenetics prenatal diagnosis as option

Development of a Conceptual Model of Disease Progression for Use in Economic Modeling of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabberer, Maggie; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Muellerova, Hana; Briggs, Andrew H; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Chambers, Mike; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

To develop and validate a new conceptual model (CM) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for use in disease progression and economic modeling. The CM identifies and describes qualitative associations between disease attributes, progression and outcomes. A literature review was performed to identify any published CMs or literature reporting the impact and association of COPD disease attributes with outcomes. After critical analysis of the literature, a Steering Group of experts from the disciplines of health economics, epidemiology and clinical medicine was convened to develop a draft CM, which was refined using a Delphi process. The refined CM was validated by testing for associations between attributes using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). Disease progression attributes included in the final CM were history and occurrence of exacerbations, lung function, exercise capacity, signs and symptoms (cough, sputum, dyspnea), cardiovascular disease comorbidities, 'other' comorbidities (including depression), body composition (body mass index), fibrinogen as a biomarker, smoking and demographic characteristics (age, gender). Mortality and health-related quality of life were determined to be the most relevant final outcome measures for this model, intended to be the foundation of an economic model of COPD. The CM is being used as the foundation for developing a new COPD model of disease progression and to provide a framework for the analysis of patient-level data. The CM is available as a reference for the implementation of further disease progression and economic models.

How to make epidemiological training infectious.

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Steve E Bellan

Full Text Available Modern infectious disease epidemiology builds on two independently developed fields: classical epidemiology and dynamical epidemiology. Over the past decade, integration of the two fields has increased in research practice, but training options within the fields remain distinct with few opportunities for integration in the classroom. The annual Clinic on the Meaningful Modeling of Epidemiological Data (MMED at the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences has begun to address this gap. MMED offers participants exposure to a broad range of concepts and techniques from both epidemiological traditions. During MMED 2010 we developed a pedagogical approach that bridges the traditional distinction between classical and dynamical epidemiology and can be used at multiple educational levels, from high school to graduate level courses. The approach is hands-on, consisting of a real-time simulation of a stochastic outbreak in course participants, including realistic data reporting, followed by a variety of mathematical and statistical analyses, stemming from both epidemiological traditions. During the exercise, dynamical epidemiologists developed empirical skills such as study design and learned concepts of bias while classical epidemiologists were trained in systems thinking and began to understand epidemics as dynamic nonlinear processes. We believe this type of integrated educational tool will prove extremely valuable in the training of future infectious disease epidemiologists. We also believe that such interdisciplinary training will be critical for local capacity building in analytical epidemiology as Africa continues to produce new cohorts of well-trained mathematicians, statisticians, and scientists. And because the lessons draw on skills and concepts from many fields in biology--from pathogen biology, evolutionary dynamics of host--pathogen interactions, and the ecology of infectious disease to bioinformatics, computational biology, and

The social patterning of risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in five countries: evidence from the modeling the epidemiologic transition study (METS

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Silvia Stringhini

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Associations between socioeconomic status (SES and risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (NCD-RFs may differ in populations at different stages of the epidemiological transition. We assessed the social patterning of NCD-RFs in a study including populations with different levels of socioeconomic development. Methods Data on SES, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol and glucose were available from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS, with about 500 participants aged 25–45 in each of five sites (Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles, United States. Results The prevalence of NCD-RFs differed between these populations from five countries (e.g., lower prevalence of smoking, obesity and hypertension in rural Ghana and by sex (e.g., higher prevalence of smoking and physical activity in men and of obesity in women in most populations. Smoking and physical activity were associated with low SES in most populations. The associations of SES with obesity, hypertension, cholesterol and elevated blood glucose differed by population, sex, and SES indicator. For example, the prevalence of elevated blood glucose tended to be associated with low education, but not with wealth, in Seychelles and USA. The association of SES with obesity and cholesterol was direct in some populations but inverse in others. Conclusions In conclusion, the distribution of NCD-RFs was socially patterned in these populations at different stages of the epidemiological transition, but associations between SES and NCD-RFs differed substantially according to risk factor, population, sex, and SES indicator. These findings emphasize the need to assess and integrate the social patterning of NCD-RFs in NCD prevention and control programs in LMICs.

Landscape epidemiology and machine learning: A geospatial approach to modeling West Nile virus risk in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Sean Gregory

The complex interactions between human health and the physical landscape and environment have been recognized, if not fully understood, since the ancient Greeks. Landscape epidemiology, sometimes called spatial epidemiology, is a sub-discipline of medical geography that uses environmental conditions as explanatory variables in the study of disease or other health phenomena. This theory suggests that pathogenic organisms (whether germs or larger vector and host species) are subject to environmental conditions that can be observed on the landscape, and by identifying where such organisms are likely to exist, areas at greatest risk of the disease can be derived. Machine learning is a sub-discipline of artificial intelligence that can be used to create predictive models from large and complex datasets. West Nile virus (WNV) is a relatively new infectious disease in the United States, and has a fairly well-understood transmission cycle that is believed to be highly dependent on environmental conditions. This study takes a geospatial approach to the study of WNV risk, using both landscape epidemiology and machine learning techniques. A combination of remotely sensed and in situ variables are used to predict WNV incidence with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.86. A novel method of mitigating the small numbers problem is also tested and ultimately discarded. Finally a consistent spatial pattern of model errors is identified, indicating the chosen variables are capable of predicting WNV disease risk across most of the United States, but are inadequate in the northern Great Plains region of the US.

Ultraviolet radiation and autoimmune disease: insights from epidemiological research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; McMichael, Anthony; Mei, Ingrid van der

2002-01-01

This review examines the epidemiological evidence that suggests ultraviolet radiation (UVR) may play a protective role in three autoimmune diseases: multiple sclerosis, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and rheumatoid arthritis. To date, most of the information has accumulated from population studies that have studied the relationship between geography or climate and autoimmune disease prevalence. An interesting gradient of increasing prevalence with increasing latitude has been observed for at least two of the three diseases. This is most evident for multiple sclerosis, but a similar gradient has been shown for insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in Europe and North America. Seasonal influences on both disease incidence and clinical course and, more recently, analytical studies at the individual level have provided further support for a possible protective role for UVR in some of these diseases but the data are not conclusive. Organ-specific autoimmune diseases involve Th1 cell-mediated immune processes. Recent work in photoimmunology has shown ultraviolet B (UVB) can specifically attenuate these processes through several mechanisms which we discuss. In particular, the possible contribution of an UVR-induced increase in serum vitamin D (1,25(OH) 2 D 3 ) levels in the beneficial immunomodulation of these diseases is discussed

How much, how long, what, and where: air pollution exposure assessment for epidemiologic studies of respiratory disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Brauer, Michael

2010-05-01

Epidemiology has played an important role in the understanding of air pollution as a risk factor for respiratory disease and in the evidence base for air quality standards. With the widespread availability of genetic information and increasingly sophisticated measurements of molecular markers of adverse effects, there is a need for more specific and precise assessment of exposure to maximize the potential information to be derived from epidemiologic studies. Here advances in air pollution exposure assessment and their applications to studies of respiratory disease are reviewed, with a focus on recent studies of traffic-related air pollution and asthma. Although continuous measurements of personal exposures for all study subjects for a complete study period might be considered the desired "gold standard" for exposure, this is rarely, if ever, achieved due to feasibility constraints. Given this, exposure is typically estimated using models. Recent applications of geospatial (e.g., land use regression) models to studies of respiratory disease have made possible new study designs focused on spatial variability in exposure within urban areas and have provided new insights into the potential role of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) as a risk factor for the development of childhood asthma. Substantial uncertainty remains, however, regarding what agent(s) within TRAP might be responsible for the observed associations. Future research will require increasing the specificity of exposure assessment to identify the potential roles of individual air pollution components, to elucidate potential mechanisms, and to facilitate studies of mixtures and gene-air pollution interactions.

Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases from west to east.

Science.gov (United States)

Vegh, Zsuzsanna; Kurti, Zsuzsanna; Lakatos, Peter L

2017-02-01

The incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) show considerable variation over time and across geographical regions. The first studies on the epidemiology of IBD were mainly from traditionally high-incidence areas, such as North America, and northern and western Europe. In the last two decades, more and more studies have been published from Eastern European and Asian countries with increasing incidence rates from some regions. According to recent studies, the high incidence and prevalence of IBD in some Western countries is plateauing and in some Eastern countries increasing incidences have been reported. In the era of new multicenter epidemiological studies with common methodology the direct comparison of incidences and prevalences has became possible. In the present review we summarized the currently available literatures on west-east differences in the incidences and prevalences of IBD. © 2017 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Gastric cancer: a primer on the epidemiology and biology of the disease and an overview of the medical management of advanced disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Manish A; Kelsen, David P

2010-04-01

Gastric cancer is a cause of significant morbidity and cancer-related mortality worldwide. Despite recent advances in targeted therapy and understanding of the biology and development of the malignancy, progress in the treatment of gastric cancer has been limited. Most newly diagnosed patients will present with incurable disease, and have a median survival of less than 1 year. Although the disease has widespread ethnic and epidemiologic differences, medical management of gastric cancer does not distinguish among the various disease subtypes. The recent report of the ToGA phase III study has validated Her2 as a molecular target in this disease, supporting the concept that a greater understanding of the biology of gastric cancer subsets may improve treatment selection and overall outcome of individual patients. This article summarizes the epidemiology and ethnic variation of this disease to crystalize subtypes of gastric cancer in the context of current and future medical management of advanced disease.

Immunology, epidemiology and mathematical modelling towards a better understanding of invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella disease and rational vaccination approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastroeni, Pietro; Rossi, Omar

2016-12-01

Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) infections cause a high burden of lethal sepsis in young children and HIV patients, often associated with malaria, anaemia, malnutrition and sickle-cell disease. Vaccines against iNTS are urgently needed but none are licensed yet. Areas covered: This review illustrates how immunology, epidemiology and within-host pathogen behaviour affect invasive Salmonella infections and highlights how this knowledge can assist the improvement and choice of vaccines. Expert Commentary: Control of iNTS disease requires approaches that reduce transmission and improve diagnosis and treatment. These are often difficult to implement due to the fragile ecology and economies in endemic countries. Vaccines will be key tools in the fight against iNTS disease. To optimise vaccine design, we need to better define protective antigens and mechanisms of resistance to disease in susceptible populations even in those individuals where innate immunity may be impaired by widespread comorbidities.

Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

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Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

2012-01-01

Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

Looking forward to 20/20: a focus on the epidemiology of eye diseases.

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West, S K

2000-01-01

The encouraging scenario of international efforts to eliminate preventable and avoidable blindness is the legacy of public health ophthalmology in the 20th century. With active programs currently in place or beginning for the major cause of blindness in childhood and two of the leading infectious causes of blindness, it is natural that research in eye disease will shift even more heavily toward the leading causes of blindness in the older ages. The age-related eye diseases will rapidly become the most common causes of blindness and visual loss and, with the exception of cataract, are the more difficult to identify, diagnose, and treat. The human misery and social cost of blindness, especially in the countries that can ill afford it, are profound. To combat this problem, epidemiologic research in ophthalmology should look toward the following major areas: 1. the identification and testing of better screening modalities to determine early changes possibly amenable to preventive strategies. This includes detection of vitamin A deficiency as well. 2. the creation of uniform definitions for diseases, particularly glaucoma and early AMD, which have relevance for epidemiologic research into risk factors. 3. increased multidisciplinary research, working with investigators skilled in molecular genetics, biologic markers for age-related diseases, and those interested in new imaging and vision-testing techniques. 4. ongoing work in clinical trials of new approaches to prevent or delay the onset of vision loss from eye disease, including future vaccines for chlamydia and onchocerciasis. The major public health issue of blindness prevention will not disappear in the next century but only shift emphasis to different causes if the current programs achieve the success that is hoped. Future epidemiologic research will continue to require a concerted, sustained, and multidisciplinary effort in order to contribute to the vision research agenda in the next century.

Epidemiological modelling of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorder for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

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Erskine, Holly E; Ferrari, Alize J; Nelson, Paul; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Flaxman, Abraham D; Vos, Theo; Whiteford, Harvey A; Scott, James G

2013-12-01

The most recent Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2010) is the first to include attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) for burden quantification. We present the epidemiological profiles of ADHD and CD across three time periods for 21 world regions. A systematic review of global epidemiology was conducted for each disorder (based on a literature search of the Medline, PsycInfo and EMBASE databases). A Bayesian metaregression tool was used to derive prevalence estimates by age and sex in three time periods (1990, 2005 and 2010) for 21 world regions including those with little or no data. Prior expert knowledge and covariates were applied to each model to adjust suboptimal data. Final prevalence output for ADHD were adjusted to reflect an equivalent value if studies had measured point prevalence using multiple informants while final prevalence output for CD were adjusted to reflect a value equivalent to CD only. Prevalence was pooled for males and females aged 5-19 years with no difference found in global prevalence between the three time periods. Male prevalence of ADHD in 2010 was 2.2% (2.0-2.3) while female prevalence was 0.7% (0.6-0.7). Male prevalence of CD in 2010 was 3.6% (3.3-4.0) while female prevalence was 1.5% (1.4-1.7). ADHD and CD were estimated to be present worldwide with ADHD prevalence showing some regional variation while CD prevalence remained relatively consistent worldwide. We present the first prevalence estimates of both ADHD and CD globally and for all world regions. Data were sparse with large parts of the world having no estimates of either disorder. Epidemiological studies are urgently needed in certain parts of the world. Our findings directly informed burden quantification for GBD 2010. As mental disorders gained increased recognition after the first GBD study in 1990, the inclusion of ADHD and CD in GBD 2010 ensures their importance will be recognized alongside other childhood disorders. © 2013 The

Ergonomics and epidemiology in evidence based health prevention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Olaf Chresten

2009-01-01

According to the definitions, ergonomics is a natural part of the health and safety activity but it has its own research methods and causal models. Public health, occupational and clinical medicines are closely related to epidemiology and differ from ergonomics by using a disease model with a wide...... success of health effects from the clinical trials could not be obtained. It is argued that the ergonomics design, Integration and Implementation can be strengthened by adapting the epidemiological methods and causal models. The ergonomics can then contribute to a common development of public health...

Deterministic analysis of extrinsic and intrinsic noise in an epidemiological model.

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Bayati, Basil S

2016-05-01

We couple a stochastic collocation method with an analytical expansion of the canonical epidemiological master equation to analyze the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic noise. It is shown that depending on the distribution of the extrinsic noise, the master equation yields quantitatively different results compared to using the expectation of the distribution for the stochastic parameter. This difference is incident to the nonlinear terms in the master equation, and we show that the deviation away from the expectation of the extrinsic noise scales nonlinearly with the variance of the distribution. The method presented here converges linearly with respect to the number of particles in the system and exponentially with respect to the order of the polynomials used in the stochastic collocation calculation. This makes the method presented here more accurate than standard Monte Carlo methods, which suffer from slow, nonmonotonic convergence. In epidemiological terms, the results show that extrinsic fluctuations should be taken into account since they effect the speed of disease breakouts and that the gamma distribution should be used to model the basic reproductive number.

The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2010 Study.

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Moran, Andrew; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Chugh, Sumeet; Feigin, Valery; Mensah, George

2013-01-01

The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa is unique among world regions, with about half of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) due to causes other than atherosclerosis. CVD epidemiology data are sparse and of uneven quality in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the available data, the Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors, and Injuries (GBD) 2010 Study estimated CVD mortality and burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990 and 2010. The leading CVD cause of death and disability in 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa was stroke; the largest relative increases in CVD burden between 1990 and 2010 were in atrial fibrillation and peripheral arterial disease. CVD deaths constituted only 8.8% of all deaths and 3.5% of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in sub-Sahara Africa, less than a quarter of the proportion of deaths and burden attributed to CVD in high income regions. However, CVD deaths in sub-Saharan Africa occur at younger ages on average than in the rest of the world. It remains uncertain if increased urbanization and life expectancy in some parts of sub-Saharan African nations will transition the region to higher CVD burden in future years. © 2013.

The Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2010 Study

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Moran, Andrew; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Chugh, Sumeet; Feigin, Valery; Mensah, George

2014-01-01

The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa is unique among world regions, with about half of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) due to causes other than atherosclerosis. CVD epidemiology data are sparse and of uneven quality in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the available data, the Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors, and Injuries (GBD) 2010 Study estimated CVD mortality and burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990 and 2010. The leading CVD cause of death and disability in 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa was stroke; the largest relative increases in CVD burden between 1990 and 2010 were in atrial fibrillation and peripheral arterial disease. CVD deaths constituted only 8.8% of all deaths and 3.5% of all disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in sub-Sahara Africa, less than a quarter of the proportion of deaths and burden attributed to CVD in high income regions. However, CVD deaths in sub-Saharan Africa occur at younger ages on average than in the rest of the world. It remains uncertain if increased urbanization and life expectancy in some parts of sub-Saharan African nations will transition the region to higher CVD burden in future years. PMID:24267430

Dynamical analysis and simulation of a 2-dimensional disease model with convex incidence

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Yu, Pei; Zhang, Wenjing; Wahl, Lindi M.

2016-08-01

In this paper, a previously developed 2-dimensional disease model is studied, which can be used for both epidemiologic modeling and in-host disease modeling. The main attention of this paper is focused on various dynamical behaviors of the system, including Hopf and generalized Hopf bifurcations which yield bistability and tristability, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation. It is shown that the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and homoclinic bifurcation provide a new mechanism for generating disease recurrence, that is, cycles of remission and relapse such as the viral blips observed in HIV infection.

A clinical review of recent findings in the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease

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Ponder A

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Alexis Ponder, Millie D LongDepartment of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USAAbstract: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD, including both Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, are disorders of chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract marked by episodes of relapse and remission. Over the past several decades, advances have been made in understanding the epidemiology of IBD. The incidence and prevalence of both Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis have been increasing worldwide across pediatric and adult populations. As IBD is thought to be related to a combination of individual genetic susceptibility, environmental triggers, and alterations in the gut microbiome that stimulate an inflammatory response, understanding the potentially modifiable environmental risk factors associated with the development or the course of IBD could impact disease rates or management in the future. Current hypotheses as to the development of IBD are reviewed, as are a host of environmental cofactors that have been investigated as both protective and inciting factors for IBD onset. Such environmental factors include breast feeding, gastrointestinal infections, urban versus rural lifestyle, medication exposures, stress, smoking, and diet. The role of these factors in disease course is also reviewed. Looking forward, there is still much to be learned about the etiology of IBD and how specific environmental exposures intimately impact the development of disease and also the potential for relapse.Keywords: clinical epidemiology, inflammatory bowel disease, environmental risk factors

Stability analysis of pest-predator interaction model with infectious disease in prey

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Suryanto, Agus; Darti, Isnani; Anam, Syaiful

2018-03-01

We consider an eco-epidemiological model based on a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model. Such eco-epidemiological model is proposed to describe the interaction between pest as the prey and its predator. We assume that the pest can be infected by a disease or pathogen and the predator only eats the susceptible prey. The dynamical properties of the model such as the existence and the stability of biologically feasible equilibria are studied. The model has six type of equilibria, but only three of them are conditionally stable. We find that the predator in this system cannot go extinct. However, the susceptible or the infective prey may disappear in the environment. To support our analytical results, we perform some numerical simulations with different scenario.

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Stewardship-Mathematical Modeling.

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Barnes, Sean L; Kasaie, Parastu; Anderson, Deverick J; Rubin, Michael

2016-11-01

Mathematical modeling is a valuable methodology used to study healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship, particularly when more traditional study approaches are infeasible, unethical, costly, or time consuming. We focus on 2 of the most common types of mathematical modeling, namely compartmental modeling and agent-based modeling, which provide important advantages-such as shorter developmental timelines and opportunities for extensive experimentation-over observational and experimental approaches. We summarize these advantages and disadvantages via specific examples and highlight recent advances in the methodology. A checklist is provided to serve as a guideline in the development of mathematical models in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-7.

Epidemiology of IBD

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... IBD? Projects and Partners Data and Statistics Resources Epidemiology of the IBD Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share ... 5:1424-9. 2 Loftus EV, Jr. Clinical epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease: Incidence, prevalence, and environmental ...

Strengthening epidemiologic investigation of infectious diseases in Korea: lessons from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak

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Changhwan Lee

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The recent outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS coronavirus infection in Korea resulted in large socioeconomic losses. This provoked the Korean government and the general public to recognize the importance of having a well-established system against infectious diseases. Although epidemiologic investigation is one of the most important aspects of prevention, it has been pointed out that much needs to be improved in Korea. We review here the current status of the Korean epidemiologic service and suggest possible supplementation measures. We examine the current national preventive infrastructure, including human resources such as Epidemic Intelligence Service officers, its governmental management, and related policies. In addition, we describe the practical application of these resources to the recent MERS outbreak and the progress in preventive measures. The spread of MERS demonstrated that the general readiness for emerging infectious diseases in Korea is considerably low. We believe that it is essential to increase society’s investment in disease prevention. Fostering public health personnel, legislating management policies, and establishing research centers for emerging infectious diseases are potential solutions. Evaluating international preventive systems, developing cooperative measures, and initiating improvements are necessary. We evaluated the Korean epidemiologic investigation system and the public preventive measures against infectious diseases in light of the recent MERS outbreak. We suggest that governmental authorities in Korea enforce preventive policies, foster the development of highly qualified personnel, and increase investment in the public health domain of infectious disease prevention.

An Interactive, Web-based High Performance Modeling Environment for Computational Epidemiology.

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Deodhar, Suruchi; Bisset, Keith R; Chen, Jiangzhuo; Ma, Yifei; Marathe, Madhav V

2014-07-01

We present an integrated interactive modeling environment to support public health epidemiology. The environment combines a high resolution individual-based model with a user-friendly web-based interface that allows analysts to access the models and the analytics back-end remotely from a desktop or a mobile device. The environment is based on a loosely-coupled service-oriented-architecture that allows analysts to explore various counter factual scenarios. As the modeling tools for public health epidemiology are getting more sophisticated, it is becoming increasingly hard for non-computational scientists to effectively use the systems that incorporate such models. Thus an important design consideration for an integrated modeling environment is to improve ease of use such that experimental simulations can be driven by the users. This is achieved by designing intuitive and user-friendly interfaces that allow users to design and analyze a computational experiment and steer the experiment based on the state of the system. A key feature of a system that supports this design goal is the ability to start, stop, pause and roll-back the disease propagation and intervention application process interactively. An analyst can access the state of the system at any point in time and formulate dynamic interventions based on additional information obtained through state assessment. In addition, the environment provides automated services for experiment set-up and management, thus reducing the overall time for conducting end-to-end experimental studies. We illustrate the applicability of the system by describing computational experiments based on realistic pandemic planning scenarios. The experiments are designed to demonstrate the system's capability and enhanced user productivity.

Epidemiology and the Tobacco Epidemic: How Research on Tobacco and Health Shaped Epidemiology.

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Samet, Jonathan M

2016-03-01

In this article, I provide a perspective on the tobacco epidemic and epidemiology, describing the impact of the tobacco-caused disease epidemic on the field of epidemiology. Although there is an enormous body of epidemiologic evidence on the associations of smoking with health, little systematic attention has been given to how decades of research have affected epidemiology and its practice. I address the many advances that resulted from epidemiologic research on smoking and health, such as demonstration of the utility of observational designs and important parameters (the odds ratio and the population attributable risk), guidelines for causal inference, and systematic review approaches. I also cover unintended and adverse consequences for the field, including the strategy of doubt creation and the recruitment of epidemiologists by the tobacco industry to serve its mission. The paradigm of evidence-based action for addressing noncommunicable diseases began with the need to address the epidemic of tobacco-caused disease, an imperative for action documented by epidemiologic research. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recent trends in coronary heart disease epidemiology in India.

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Gupta, Rajeev

2008-01-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is epidemic in India and one of the major causes of disease-burden and deaths. Mortality data from the Registrar General of India shows that cardiovascular diseases are a major cause of death in India now. Studies to determine the precise causes of death in urban Chennai and rural areas of Andhra Pradesh have revealed that cardiovascular diseases cause about 40% of the deaths in urban areas and 30% in rural areas. Analysis of cross-sectional CHD epidemiological studies performed over the past 50 years reveals that this condition is increasing in both urban and rural areas. The adult prevalence has increased in urban areas from about 2% in 1960 to 6.5% in 1970, 7.0% in 1980, 9.7% in 1990 and 10.5% in 2000; while in rural areas, it increased from 2% in 1970, to 2.5% in 1980, 4% in 1990, and 4.5% in 2000. In terms of absolute numbers this translates into 30 million CHD patients in the country. The disease occurs at a much younger age in Indians as compared to those in North America and Western Europe. Rural-urban differences reveal that risk factors like obesity, truncal obesity, hypertension, high cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol and diabetes are more in urban areas. Case-control studies also confirm the importance of these risk factors. The INTERHEART-South Asia study identified that eight established coronary risk factors--abnormal lipids, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, psychosocial factors, low fruit and vegetable consumption, and lack of physical activity--accounted for 89% of the cases of acute myocardial infarction in Indians. There is epidemiological evidence that all these risk factors are increasing. Over the past fifty years prevalence of obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes have increased significantly in urban (R2 0.45-0.74) and slowly in rural areas (R2 0.19-0.29). There is an urgent need for development and implementation of suitable primordial, primary, and secondary prevention

Parameter values for epidemiological models of foot-and-mouth disease in swine

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Amy C Kinsley

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD incursion, response strategies are required to control, contain and eradicate the pathogen as efficiently as possible. Infectious disease simulation models are widely used tools that mimic disease dispersion in a population and that can be useful in the design and support of prevention and mitigation activities. However, there are often gaps in evidence-based research to supply models with quantities that are necessary to accurately reflect the system of interest. The objective of this study was to quantify values associated with the duration of the stages of FMD infection (latent period, subclinical period, incubation period, and duration of infection, probability of transmission (within-herd and between-herd via spatial spread, and diagnosis of a vesicular disease within a herd using a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion. The latent period ranged from 1 to 7 days and incubation period ranged from 1 to 9 day; both were influenced by strain. In contrast, the subclinical period ranged from 0 to 6 days and was influenced by sampling method only. The duration of infection ranged from 1 to 10 days. The probability of spatial spread between an infected and fully susceptible swine farm was estimated as greatest within 5 km of the infected farm, highlighting the importance of possible long-range transmission through the movement of infected animals. Lastly, while most swine practitioners are confident in their ability to detect a vesicular disease in an average sized swine herd, a small proportion expect that up to half of the herd would need to show clinical signs before detection via passive surveillance would occur. The results of this study will be useful in within- and between-herd simulation models to develop efficient response strategies in the event an FMD in swine populations of disease-free countries or regions.

Epidemiological methods: a brief review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkelstein, W. Jr.

1983-01-01

Epidemiology, the study of disease distributions in populations and the factors which influence these distributions, is an observational science, i.e., its data base consists of measurements made on free living individuals characterized by presence or absence of disease states and putative risk factors. Epidemiological studies are usually classified as descriptive or analytical. Descriptive studies are primarily used for planning and evaluating health programs or to generate etiological hypotheses. Analytical studies are primarily used for testing etiological hypotheses. Analytical studies are designed either as cohort investigations in which populations with and without a putative risk factor are followed through time to ascertain their differential incidence of disease, or case-control investigations in which the history of exposure to a putative risk factor is compared among persons with a disease and appropriate controls free of disease. Both descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been applied to health physics problems. Examples of such problems and the epidemiological methods used to explore them will be presented

Modeling the Cumulative Effects of Social Exposures on Health: Moving beyond Disease-Specific Models

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Heather L. White

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The traditional explanatory models used in epidemiology are “disease specific”, identifying risk factors for specific health conditions. Yet social exposures lead to a generalized, cumulative health impact which may not be specific to one illness. Disease-specific models may therefore misestimate social factors’ effects on health. Using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey and Canada 2001 Census we construct and compare “disease-specific” and “generalized health impact” (GHI models to gauge the negative health effects of one social exposure: socioeconomic position (SEP. We use logistic and multinomial multilevel modeling with neighbourhood-level material deprivation, individual-level education and household income to compare and contrast the two approaches. In disease-specific models, the social determinants under study were each associated with the health conditions of interest. However, larger effect sizes were apparent when outcomes were modeled as compound health problems (0, 1, 2, or 3+ conditions using the GHI approach. To more accurately estimate social exposures’ impacts on population health, researchers should consider a GHI framework.

Diabetic Kidney Disease: From Epidemiology to Clinical Perspectives

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Cheol Whee Park

2014-08-01

Full Text Available With worldwide epidemic of diabetes mellitus, diabetic nephropathy which is one of the major causes of microvascular complication has become a serious concern in Korea as well as the rest of the world. In view of its significance, there is an urgent and paramount need for proper managements that could either deter or slow the progression of diabetic nephropathy. Despite advances in care, ever increasing number of patients suffering from diabetic kidney disease and from end-stage renal disease implies that the current management is not adequate in many aspects. The reasons for these inadequacies compromise lack of early diagnosis, failure to intervene with timely and aggressive manner, and lack of understanding on the kind of interventions required. Another issue equally important for the adequate care of patients with diabetic nephropathy is an understanding of past, present and future epidemiology of diabetic nephropathy which serves, especially in Korea, as a material determining standard diagnosis and treatment and a national health-policy decision.

Does terrestrial epidemiology apply to marine systems?

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McCallum, Hamish I.; Kuris, Armand M.; Harvell, C. Drew; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Smith, Garriet W.; Porter, James

2004-01-01

Most of epidemiological theory has been developed for terrestrial systems, but the significance of disease in the ocean is now being recognized. However, the extent to which terrestrial epidemiology can be directly transferred to marine systems is uncertain. Many broad types of disease-causing organism occur both on land and in the sea, and it is clear that some emergent disease problems in marine environments are caused by pathogens moving from terrestrial to marine systems. However, marine systems are qualitatively different from terrestrial environments, and these differences affect the application of modelling and management approaches that have been developed for terrestrial systems. Phyla and body plans are more diverse in marine environments and marine organisms have different life histories and probably different disease transmission modes than many of their terrestrial counterparts. Marine populations are typically more open than terrestrial ones, with the potential for long-distance dispersal of larvae. Potentially, this might enable unusually rapid propagation of epidemics in marine systems, and there are several examples of this. Taken together, these differences will require the development of new approaches to modelling and control of infectious disease in the ocean.

Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool for Disease (CAMDT-Disease) for seasonal climate forecast-based crop disease risk management in agriculture

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Kim, K. H.; Lee, S.; Han, E.; Ines, A. V. M.

2017-12-01

Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) is a decision support system (DSS) tool that aims to facilitate translations of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to crop responses such as yield and water stress. Since CAMDT is a software framework connecting different models and algorithms with SCF information, it can be easily customized for different types of agriculture models. In this study, we replaced the DSSAT-CSM-Rice model originally incorporated in CAMDT with a generic epidemiological model, EPIRICE, to generate a seasonal pest outlook. The resulting CAMDT-Disease generates potential risks for selected fungal, viral, and bacterial diseases of rice over the next months by translating SCFs into agriculturally-relevant risk information. The integrated modeling procedure of CAMDT-Disease first disaggregates a given SCF using temporal downscaling methods (predictWTD or FResampler1), runs EPIRICE with the downscaled weather inputs, and finally visualizes the EPIRICE outputs as disease risk compared to that of the previous year and the 30-year-climatological average. In addition, the easy-to-use graphical user interface adopted from CAMDT allows users to simulate "what-if" scenarios of disease risks over different planting dates with given SCFs. Our future work includes the simulation of the effect of crop disease on yields through the disease simulation models with the DSSAT-CSM-Rice model, as disease remains one of the most critical yield-reducing factors in the field.

Molecular pathological epidemiology of epigenetics: emerging integrative science to analyze environment, host, and disease.

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Ogino, Shuji; Lochhead, Paul; Chan, Andrew T; Nishihara, Reiko; Cho, Eunyoung; Wolpin, Brian M; Meyerhardt, Jeffrey A; Meissner, Alexander; Schernhammer, Eva S; Fuchs, Charles S; Giovannucci, Edward

2013-04-01

Epigenetics acts as an interface between environmental/exogenous factors, cellular responses, and pathological processes. Aberrant epigenetic signatures are a hallmark of complex multifactorial diseases (including neoplasms and malignancies such as leukemias, lymphomas, sarcomas, and breast, lung, prostate, liver, and colorectal cancers). Epigenetic signatures (DNA methylation, mRNA and microRNA expression, etc) may serve as biomarkers for risk stratification, early detection, and disease classification, as well as targets for therapy and chemoprevention. In particular, DNA methylation assays are widely applied to formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded archival tissue specimens as clinical pathology tests. To better understand the interplay between etiological factors, cellular molecular characteristics, and disease evolution, the field of 'molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE)' has emerged as an interdisciplinary integration of 'molecular pathology' and 'epidemiology'. In contrast to traditional epidemiological research including genome-wide association studies (GWAS), MPE is founded on the unique disease principle, that is, each disease process results from unique profiles of exposomes, epigenomes, transcriptomes, proteomes, metabolomes, microbiomes, and interactomes in relation to the macroenvironment and tissue microenvironment. MPE may represent a logical evolution of GWAS, termed 'GWAS-MPE approach'. Although epigenome-wide association study attracts increasing attention, currently, it has a fundamental problem in that each cell within one individual has a unique, time-varying epigenome. Having a similar conceptual framework to systems biology, the holistic MPE approach enables us to link potential etiological factors to specific molecular pathology, and gain novel pathogenic insights on causality. The widespread application of epigenome (eg, methylome) analyses will enhance our understanding of disease heterogeneity, epigenotypes (CpG island methylator

Asthma: epidemiology of disease control in Latin America ? short review

OpenAIRE

Sol?, Dirceu; Aranda, Carolina Sanchez; Wandalsen, Gustavo Falbo

2017-01-01

Asthma is reported as one of the most common chronic diseases in childhood, impairing the quality of life of patients and their families and incurring high costs to the healthcare system and society. Despite the development of new drugs and the availability of international treatment guidelines, asthma is still poorly controlled, especially in Latin America. Original and review articles on asthma control or epidemiology with high levels of evidence have been selected for analysis among those ...

Geographic variations in epidemiology of two autoimmune bullous diseases: pemphigus and bullous pemphigoid.

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Alpsoy, Erkan; Akman-Karakas, Ayse; Uzun, Soner

2015-05-01

Autoimmune bullous diseases are rare, organ-specific, a group of blistering disease of skin and mucous membranes. Recent studies suggest that the frequency of the autoimmune bullous diseases has been increasing. Pemphigus vulgaris and bullous pemphigoid are the most frequently reported autoimmune bullous diseases. High incidence of autoimmune bullous diseases in some ethnic groups such as pemphigus in Ashkenazi Jewish, or in some regions such as pemphigus foliaceus in Brazil has been shown to be related to genetic and environmental factors, respectively. Pemphigus has been reported more frequently in the female gender. Although it is most frequently diagnosed between the ages 50 and 60 in European countries, in the remaining countries in the world, it is seen between the ages of 30 and 50. Bullous pemphigoid is generally seen above 70 years of age. Although overall incidence is slightly higher in females, after the age of 80 years it is more frequent in males. Both pemphigus vulgaris and bullous pemphigoid has a chronic course with recurrences. Mortality risk of the patients with bullous pemphigoid was found at least 2 times higher and the mortality risk of the patients with pemphigus was found approximately 3 times higher than that of the general population. In this review, the results obtained from the epidemiological studies were analyzed according to geographic regions, and especially epidemiologic features of two prevalent autoimmune bullous diseases, pemphigus and bullous pemphigoid have been discussed.

Methodological issues in cardiovascular epidemiology: the risk of determining absolute risk through statistical models

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Demosthenes B Panagiotakos

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Demosthenes B Panagiotakos, Vassilis StavrinosOffice of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Department of Dietetics, Nutrition, Harokopio University, Athens, GreeceAbstract: During the past years there has been increasing interest in the development of cardiovascular disease functions that predict future events at individual level. However, this effort has not been so far very successful, since several investigators have reported large differences in the estimation of the absolute risk among different populations. For example, it seems that predictive models that have been derived from US or north European populations  overestimate the incidence of cardiovascular events in south European and Japanese populations. A potential explanation could be attributed to several factors such as geographical, cultural, social, behavioral, as well as genetic variations between the investigated populations in addition to various methodological, statistical, issues relating to the estimation of these predictive models. Based on current literature it can be concluded that, while risk prediction of future cardiovascular events is a useful tool and might be valuable in controlling the burden of the disease in a population, further work is required to improve the accuracy of the present predictive models.Keywords: cardiovascular disease, risk, models

Using surrogate biomarkers to improve measurement error models in nutritional epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh, Ruth H; White, Ian R; Rodwell, Sheila A

2013-01-01

Nutritional epidemiology relies largely on self-reported measures of dietary intake, errors in which give biased estimated diet–disease associations. Self-reported measurements come from questionnaires and food records. Unbiased biomarkers are scarce; however, surrogate biomarkers, which are correlated with intake but not unbiased, can also be useful. It is important to quantify and correct for the effects of measurement error on diet–disease associations. Challenges arise because there is no gold standard, and errors in self-reported measurements are correlated with true intake and each other. We describe an extended model for error in questionnaire, food record, and surrogate biomarker measurements. The focus is on estimating the degree of bias in estimated diet–disease associations due to measurement error. In particular, we propose using sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of changes in values of model parameters which are usually assumed fixed. The methods are motivated by and applied to measures of fruit and vegetable intake from questionnaires, 7-day diet diaries, and surrogate biomarker (plasma vitamin C) from over 25000 participants in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Our results show that the estimated effects of error in self-reported measurements are highly sensitive to model assumptions, resulting in anything from a large attenuation to a small amplification in the diet–disease association. Commonly made assumptions could result in a large overcorrection for the effects of measurement error. Increased understanding of relationships between potential surrogate biomarkers and true dietary intake is essential for obtaining good estimates of the effects of measurement error in self-reported measurements on observed diet–disease associations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:23553407

The epidemiology and the pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlinger, Kinga; Gyoerke, Tamas; Makoe, Erno; Mester, Adam; Tarjan, Zsolt

2000-01-01

The etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is still unknown. However, a satisfactory solution cannot be far away. IBD actually encompasses two diseases, i.e. Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerous colitis (UC). These diseases resemble each other so closely that they cannot be distinguished even pathologically, but differ from each other sufficiently to regard them as independent entities. Epidemiological observations may be helpful in identifying the true causative factors of this evasive disease. Geographically, the prevalence of the disease has a slope from North to South and, to a lesser degree, from West to East. The Western-Eastern discrepancy can be attributed to a difference in Western life styles. The incidence of the disease has been increasing world-wide of late, but its spread has been slowing down in highly affected countries. Racial and ethnic relations in different populations and immigration studies offer interesting data which can reflect genetic, inherited, environmental and behavioural factors. The disease seems to have a characteristic racial-ethnic distribution: the Jewish population is highly susceptible everywhere, but its prevalence in that population nears that of the domestic society in which they live. In Hungary, the Roma (Gypsies) have a considerably lower prevalence than the average population. This can be attributed to a genetic or environmental influence. According to age, the onset of the disease occurs more often in the second or the third decade of life, but there also is another peak in the 60s. Regarding sexual distribution, there is a slight preponderance of colitis ulcerosa in men and of Crohn's disease in women. It may correspond to the stronger auto-immune affection in the process of Crohn's disease. Environmental factors and behavioural influences also are investigated. Diet, the role of the early ages, smoking habits and the influence of hormonal status and drugs are viewed as useful contributing factors in the

Epidemiological survey of graves' disease in Tianjin area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Shuo; Fang Peihua; Lai Zemin; Chen Bingzhong; Lu Tizhang; Zhou Yinbao; Tan Jian; Ni Xiaoyan

2002-01-01

Objective: To study the incidence of Graves' disease and associated factors. Methods: From 1997.4 to 1999.12, by using cluster and stratified sampling, total of 31530 people aged 6 years and over were surveyed epidemiologically for Graves' disease in five districts and one county of Tianjin area where the study subjects had been resided for at least one year. The researching team consisted of endocrinologists, epidemiologists and technicians and was divided into three branches, they served as investigators, professional experts and technicians, respectively. The serum thyroid hormones, thyroid antibodies, iodine in table salt, urine iodine and B-US were examined for the suspected cases, the final diagnoses were concluded by the professional experts. Results: Eighty-nine patients with Graves' disease were confirmed, 26 (0.166%) of them were males and 63(0.397%) of them were females, the total incidence was 0.282%. The incidence significantly associated with sex (female higher than male, P<0.001), age (50-60 group for male and 30-40 group for female higher than others, P<0.001) and family history (the patients with vs without family history, P<0.001). The survey showed an ascending trend of incidence of Graves' disease, along with decreasing of goiter rate and increasing of iodine contents in table salt and in urine. Further research work should be pursued. Conclusion: This study may provide some theoretical basis for prevention and treatment of Graves' disease

[Epidemiology of imported infectious diseases in China, 2013-2016].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y L; Wang, X; Ren, R Q; Zhou, L; Tu, W W; Ni, D X; Li, Q; Feng, Z J; Zhang, Y P

2017-11-10

Objective: To describe the epidemic of imported infectious diseases in China between 2013 and 2016, including the kinds of infectious diseases, affected provinces, source countries and the epidemiological characteristics, and provide scientific information for the prevention and control of imported infectious diseases. Methods: Data of cases of imported infectious diseases in China from 2013 to 2016 were collected from national information reporting system of infectious diseases, Microsoft Excel 2010 and SPSS 18.0 were used to conduct data cleaning and analysis. Results: From 2013 to 2016, a total of 16 206 imported cases of infectious diseases were reported in China. Of all the cases, 83.12% (13 471 cases) were malaria cases, followed by dengue fever (2 628 cases, 16.22%). The majority of the imported cases were males (14 522 cases, 89.61%). Most cases were aged 20-50 years. Except Zika virus disease and yellow fever, which were mainly reported before and after spring festival, other imported infectious diseases mainly occurred in summer and autumn. The epidemic in affected provinces varied with the types of infectious diseases, and Yunnan reported the largest case number of imported infectious diseases, followed by Jiangsu, Guangxi and Guangdong. The imported cases were mainly from Asian countries, such as Burma, and African countries, such as Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Ghana, which also varied with the types of infectious diseases. Conclusions: We should pay more attention to imported infectious diseases and strengthen the prevention and control measures in our country. In order to reduce the incidence of imported infectious diseases, the health education should be enforced for persons who plan to travel abroad and the active surveillance should be strengthened for returned travelers.

Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

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T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L

2015-03-01

Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global epidemiology of phytoplasma diseases of economic importance in Southeast Europe

OpenAIRE

Mitrev, Sasa

2007-01-01

The network ‘Global epidemiology of phytoplasma diseases of economic importance in Southeast Europe’ will coordinate the efforts of plant pathologists, microbiologists and entomologists of Southeast European countries to better monitor phytoplasma strains propagation through nurseries and insect vectors, at the European scale. This will be investigated both in plants and insects using up to date molecular typing tools and real-time PCR detection technology. In addition, the network will initi...

Development and application of Human Genome Epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jingwen

2017-12-01

Epidemiology is a science that studies distribution of diseases and health in population and its influencing factors, it also studies how to prevent and cure disease and promote health strategies and measures. Epidemiology has developed rapidly in recent years and it is an intercross subject with various other disciplines to form a series of branch disciplines such as Genetic epidemiology, molecular epidemiology, drug epidemiology and tumor epidemiology. With the implementation and completion of Human Genome Project (HGP), Human Genome Epidemiology (HuGE) has emerged at this historic moment. In this review, the development of Human Genome Epidemiology, research content, the construction and structure of relevant network, research standards, as well as the existing results and problems are briefly outlined.

Epidemiology of oral diseases in individuals between the ages of 35 and 44 years:an epidemiological scenario of the worker

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Érica Silva Carvalho

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To review epidemiological studies on oral diseases, specifically caries, periodontal disease and oral cancer, in the age group between 35 and 44 years. Methods: The strategy used to identify the articles was to search the PubMed database using the following key words: dental health surveys, epidemiology, caries, periodotitis, cancer, always with Boolean operator, and without limitation of language. The exclusion criteria were as follows: articles published over 10 years ago, articles that did not deal with adults from 35 to 44 years old and articles that did not cover the issue proposed. Results: On dental caries 7.071 articles were found, from which 6.992 articles were excluded, leaving 79. In the criteria complete articles, of the 19 articles selected, 8 were coherent with the objectives of the study. On periodontal disease, 1.554 articles were found and 872 articles were excluded. After evaluating the complete articles, 6 articles were selected. With regard to the subject oral cancer, 573 articles were found and 3 articles suited the study. Conclusion: It may be considered that caries disease increases with age and that dental loss prevails in DMFT in adults. In adults the prevalence of calculus and shallow pockets prevails and the need for dentures is higher in elderly people although it is significant in adults etween the ages of 35 and 44 years. There is a higher incidence of oral cancer in men with a synergism in alcoholic smokers. During the search in the database, it was observed that the number of researches is lower among adults.

[Biology and culture: a dimension of collaboration between anthropology and epidemiology].

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Leiming; Wang, Ning

2016-01-01

Biology is the important basis of epidemiological study. Based on biology, psychology, social and cultural factors can influence human's health and disease incidence. The medical mode has changed from "biomedical mode" to "bio-psycho-social medical model" , but culture factor was neglected somewhat during this process, so paying attention to culture factor in anthropologic study and using it as biologic basis in epidemiologic study might be a dimension of collaboration between of anthropology and epidemiology.

Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

2001-08-01

A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

An introduction to mathematical epidemiology

CERN Document Server

Martcheva, Maia

2015-01-01

The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.

[Relations between official and private veterinary services in epidemiology and the control of contagious diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, J A; Bedoya, M; Agudelo, M P

2004-04-01

Growing budget restrictions in many countries have meant that official Veterinary Services cannot assume responsibility for any new activities. The natural reaction is to turn to private veterinary services to provide the support needed to strengthen the control and surveillance of priority diseases and thereby support the development of the livestock sector and the establishment of safe international trade. In this context, official Veterinary Services must work together with private veterinarians, delegating various technical animal health activities, so that they may focus their efforts on those tasks that cannot be delegated: standardisation, control, auditing, general system co-ordination, epidemiological surveillance, etc., as well as organising veterinary policy in order to make best use of budget resources. For these relations to be efficient, a dynamic, two-way epidemiological information mechanism must be created, whereby private veterinarians periodically keep governments informed, on the basis of an agreed methodology. Moreover, the official Veterinary Services must systematically transmit information on List A and B diseases of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), and perform detailed analyses of epidemiologically significant events. The article proposes the establishment of relations between public and private veterinary services as a way in which to provide the livestock sector with the health and hygiene conditions that are necessary for effective disease control, which in turn provides greater security for international trade and increased consumer protection.

An Application of Epidemiological Modeling to Information Diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Robert; Salter, William

Messages often spread within a population through unofficial - particularly web-based - media. Such ideas have been termed "memes." To impede the flow of terrorist messages and to promote counter messages within a population, intelligence analysts must understand how messages spread. We used statistical language processing technologies to operationalize "memes" as latent topics in electronic text and applied epidemiological techniques to describe and analyze patterns of message propagation. We developed our methods and applied them to English-language newspapers and blogs in the Arab world. We found that a relatively simple epidemiological model can reproduce some dynamics of observed empirical relationships.

Review: Epidemiological evidence of groundwater contribution to global enteric disease, 1948-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Heather M.; Prioleau, Morgan D.; Borchardt, Mark A.; Hynds, Paul D.

2017-06-01

Globally, approximately 2.2 billion people rely on groundwater for daily consumption. It is widely accepted that groundwater is more pristine than surface water but while this assumption is frequently the case, groundwater is not ubiquitously free of contaminants; accordingly, this presumption can result in an unfounded and potentially hazardous sense of security among owners, operators and users. The current paper presents a review of published literature providing epidemiological evidence of the contribution of groundwater to global human enteric infection. An emphasis is placed on enteric pathogens transmitted via the faecal-oral route, and specifically those associated with acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI). The review identified 649 published groundwater outbreaks globally between 1948 and 2013 and several epidemiological studies that show there is an increased risk of AGI associated with the consumption of untreated groundwater. The review identified that the following five pathogens were responsible for most outbreaks: norovirus, Campylobacter, Shigella, Hepatitis A and Giardia. Crudely, the authors estimate that between 35.2 and 59.4 million cases of AGI per year globally could be attributable to the consumption of groundwater. Although groundwater is frequently presumed to be a microbiologically safe source of water for consumption, this review demonstrates that consumers served by an untreated groundwater supply remain at risk to enteric disease. The authors conclude that collaboration between microbiologists, hydrogeologists and epidemiologists is needed to better understand pathogen occurrence, persistence, detection and transport in groundwater as well as build stronger epidemiological evidence documenting the true magnitude of disease associated with groundwater globally.

[Caffeine as a preventive drug for Parkinson's disease: epidemiologic evidence and experimental support].

Science.gov (United States)

Góngora-Alfaro, José Luis

Prospective epidemiologic studies performed in large cohorts of men (total: 374,003 subjects) agree in which the risk of suffering Parkinson's disease diminishes progressively as the consumption of coffee and other caffeinated beverages increases. In the case of women (total: 345,184 subjects) the protective effect of caffeine is only observed in menopausal women which do not receive estrogen replacement therapy. Studies with models of acute parkinsonism in rodents have shown that caffeine reduces the loss of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons induced with the neurotoxins 6-hidroxidopamine and 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine, effect that seems to be mediated through blockade of A(2A) adenosine receptors. Recently, it was shown that male rats treated with moderate doses of caffeine (5 mg/kg/day) during six months, followed by a withdrawal period of at least two weeks, developed a greater resistance to the catalepsy induced with the dopaminergic antagonist haloperidol, which was possibly mediated by an increase of dopaminergic transmission in the corpus striatum. More studies are needed to demonstrate unequivocally that caffeine prevents the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in animal models of moderate, chronic, and progressive parkinsonism, since it could lead to the discovery of more effective drugs for the prevention of aging-related degenerative diseases of the central nervous system.

Premium adjustment: actuarial analysis on epidemiological models ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, we analyse insurance premium adjustment in the context of an epidemiological model where the insurer's future financial liability is greater than the premium from patients. In this situation, it becomes extremely difficult for the insurer since a negative reserve would severely increase its risk of insolvency, ...

A hybrid modelling approach to simulating foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Australian livestock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard A Bradhurst

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Australia's freedom from FMD underpins a valuable trade in live animals and animal products. An outbreak of FMD would result in the loss of export markets and cause severe disruption to domestic markets. The prevention of, and contingency planning for, FMD are of key importance to government, industry, producers and the community. The spread and control of FMD is complex and dynamic due to a highly contagious multi-host pathogen operating in a heterogeneous environment across multiple jurisdictions. Epidemiological modelling is increasingly being recognized as a valuable tool for investigating the spread of disease under different conditions and the effectiveness of control strategies. Models of infectious disease can be broadly classified as: population-based models that are formulated from the top-down and employ population-level relationships to describe individual-level behaviour, individual-based models that are formulated from the bottom-up and aggregate individual-level behaviour to reveal population-level relationships, or hybrid models which combine the two approaches into a single model.The Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS hybrid model employs a deterministic equation-based model (EBM to model within-herd spread of FMD, and a stochastic, spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM to model between-herd spread and control. The EBM provides concise and computationally efficient predictions of herd prevalence and clinical signs over time. The ABM captures the complex, stochastic and heterogeneous environment in which an FMD epidemic operates. The AADIS event-driven hybrid EBM/ABM architecture is a flexible, efficient and extensible framework for modelling the spread and control of disease in livestock on a national scale. We present an overview of the AADIS hybrid approach and a description of the model

Alzheimer’s disease is not “brain aging”: neuropathological, genetic, and epidemiological human studies

Science.gov (United States)

Head, Elizabeth; Schmitt, Frederick A.; Davis, Paulina R.; Neltner, Janna H.; Jicha, Gregory A.; Abner, Erin L.; Smith, Charles D.; Van Eldik, Linda J.; Kryscio, Richard J.; Scheff, Stephen W.

2011-01-01

Human studies are reviewed concerning whether “aging”-related mechanisms contribute to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathogenesis. AD is defined by specific neuropathology: neuritic amyloid plaques and neocortical neurofibrillary tangles. AD pathology is driven by genetic factors related not to aging per se, but instead to the amyloid precursor protein (APP). In contrast to genes involved in APP-related mechanisms, there is no firm connection between genes implicated in human “accelerated aging” diseases (progerias) and AD. The epidemiology of AD in advanced age is highly relevant but deceptively challenging to address given the low autopsy rates in most countries. In extreme old age, brain diseases other than AD approximate AD prevalence while the impact of AD pathology appears to peak by age 95 and decline thereafter. Many distinct brain diseases other than AD afflict older human brains and contribute to cognitive impairment. Additional prevalent pathologies include cerebrovascular disease and hippocampal sclerosis, both high-morbidity brain diseases that appear to peak in incidence later than AD chronologically. Because of these common brain diseases of extreme old age, the epidemiology differs between clinical “dementia” and the subset of dementia cases with AD pathology. Additional aging-associated mechanisms for cognitive decline such as diabetes and synapse loss have been linked to AD and these hypotheses are discussed. Criteria are proposed to define an “aging-linked” disease, and AD fails all of these criteria. In conclusion, it may be most fruitful to focus attention on specific pathways involved in AD rather than attributing it to an inevitable consequence of aging. PMID:21516511

Global outbreak of severe Mycobacterium chimaera disease after cardiac surgery: a molecular epidemiological study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ingen, Jakko; Kohl, Thomas A; Kranzer, Katharina; Hasse, Barbara; Keller, Peter M; Katarzyna Szafrańska, Anna; Hillemann, Doris; Chand, Meera; Schreiber, Peter Werner; Sommerstein, Rami; Berger, Christoph; Genoni, Michele; Rüegg, Christian; Troillet, Nicolas; Widmer, Andreas F; Becker, Sören L; Herrmann, Mathias; Eckmanns, Tim; Haller, Sebastian; Höller, Christiane; Debast, Sylvia B; Wolfhagen, Maurice J; Hopman, Joost; Kluytmans, Jan; Langelaar, Merel; Notermans, Daan W; Ten Oever, Jaap; van den Barselaar, Peter; Vonk, Alexander B A; Vos, Margreet C; Ahmed, Nada; Brown, Timothy; Crook, Derrick; Lamagni, Theresa; Phin, Nick; Smith, E Grace; Zambon, Maria; Serr, Annerose; Götting, Tim; Ebner, Winfried; Thürmer, Alexander; Utpatel, Christian; Spröer, Cathrin; Bunk, Boyke; Nübel, Ulrich; Bloemberg, Guido V; Böttger, Erik C; Niemann, Stefan; Wagner, Dirk; Sax, Hugo

2017-01-01

Since 2013, over 100 cases of Mycobacterium chimaera prosthetic valve endocarditis and disseminated disease were notified in Europe and the USA, linked to contaminated heater-cooler units (HCUs) used during cardiac surgery. We did a molecular epidemiological investigation to establish the source of

The epidemiologic study of children diseases under one year in Tehran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Babaeei Gh

2001-07-01

Full Text Available Infant mortality and morbidity present important challenges to those concerned with community health. We did this research to study epidemiology of diseases of infancy in city of Tehran. During 15 days, of 6395 deliveries in Tehran hospitals a cohort of 6267 live births entered this study. Follow up data were gathered in 1st, 3rd, 6th and 12th months of birth. In this period, 5382 occurrence of disease were reported. The most frequent were cardiopulmonary (52.3% and Gastrointestinal (26.6% diseases. Most of the events were seen in 6-12 months age group (30.5%. The lowest frequencies of infant diseases were seen in 19-35 years of maternal age (15.3%, as compared with >35 (35.4% and <19 (49.3% groups. Mortality ratio was 32/1000 live birth (198 death. The most common causes of death were cardiopulmonary (38%, infectious (21% and gastrointestinal (18% diseases. Control of infectious disease, development of educational programs for breast feeding and planning of proper age and interval of pregnancy are effective measures for reducing infant mortality and morbidity.

Progresive diseases study using Markov´s multiple stage models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René Iral Palomino, Esp estadística

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Risk factors and their degree of association with a progressive disease,such as Alzheimerís disease or liver cancer, can be identifi edby using epidemiological models; some examples of these modelsinclude logistic and Poisson regression, log-linear, linear regression,and mixed models. Using models that take into account not onlythe different health status that a person could experience betweenvisits but also his/her characteristics (i.e. age, gender, genetic traits,etc. seems to be reasonable and justifi ed. In this paper we discussa methodology to estimate the effect of covariates that could beassociated with a disease when its progression or regression canbe idealized by means of a multi-state model that incorporates thelongitudinal nature of data. This method is based on the Markovproperty and it is illustrated using simulated data about Alzheimerísdisease. Finally, the merits and limitations of this method are discussed.

Epidemiology of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease in Asia: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Ethnic and geographical differences are important factors in studying disease frequencies, because they may highlight the environmental or genetic influences in the etiology. We retrieved the studies which have been published regarding the epidemiologic features of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) in Asia, based on the definitions of GERD, study settings, publication years and geographical regions. From the population-based studies, the prevalence of symptom-based GERD in Eastern Asia was found to be 2.5%-4.8% before 2005 and 5.2%-8.5% from 2005 to 2010. In Southeast and Western Asia, it was 6.3%-18.3% after 2005, which was much higher than those in Eastern Asia. There were robust epidemiologic data of endoscopic reflux esophagitis in medical check-up participants. The prevalence of endoscopic reflux esophagitis in Eastern Asia increased from 3.4%-5.0% before 2000, to 4.3%-15.7% after 2005. Although there were only limited studies, the prevalence of extra-esophageal syndromes in Asia was higher in GERD group than in controls. The prevalence of Barrett's esophagus was 0.06%-0.84% in the health check-up participants, whereas it was 0.31%-2.00% in the referral hospital settings. In summary, the prevalence of symptom-based GERD and endoscopic reflux esophagitis has increased in Asian countries. However, the prevalence of Barrett's esophagus in Asia has not changed and also still rare. PMID:21369488

Epidemiology, classification, and modifiable risk factors of peripheral arterial disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas W Shammas

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Nicolas W ShammasMidwest Cardiovascular Research Foundation, Cardiovascular Medicine, PC, Davenport, IA, USAAbstract: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD is part of a global vascular problem of diffuse atherosclerosis. PAD patients die mostly of cardiac and cerebrovascular-related events and much less frequently due to obstructive disease of the lower extremities. Aggressive risk factors modification is needed to reduce cardiac mortality in PAD patients. These include smoking cessation, reduction of blood pressure to current guidelines, aggressive low density lipoprotein lowering, losing weight, controlling diabetes and the use of oral antiplatelet drugs such as aspirin or clopidogrel. In addition to quitting smoking and exercise, cilostazol and statins have been shown to reduce claudication in patients with PAD. Patients with critical rest limb ischemia or severe progressive claudication need to be treated with revascularization to minimize the chance of limb loss, reduce symptoms, and improve quality of life.Keywords: peripheral arterial disease, epidemiology, risk factors, classification

Current practice of epidemiology in Africa: highlights of the 3rd conference of the African epidemiological association and 1st conference of the Cameroon society of epidemiology, Yaoundé, Cameroon, 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Nkwescheu, Armand Seraphin; Fokam, Joseph; Tchendjou, Patrice; Nji, Akindeh; Ngouakam, Hermann; Andre, Bita Fouda; Joelle, Sobngwi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Akinroye, Kingsley; Mbacham, Wilfred; Colizzi, Vittorio; Leke, Rose; Victora, Cesar

2015-01-01

As the study of disease occurrence and health indicators in human populations, Epidemiology is a dynamic field that evolves with time and geographical context. In order to update African health workers on current epidemiological practices and to draw awareness of early career epidemiologists on concepts and opportunities in the field, the 3(rd) African Epidemiology Association and the 1st Cameroon Society of Epidemiology Conference was organized in June 2-6, 2014 at the Yaoundé Mont Febe Hotel, in Cameroon. Under the theme«Practice of Epidemiology in Africa: Stakes, Challenges and Perspectives», the conference attracted close to five hundred guest and participants from all continents. The two main programs were the pre-conference course for capacity building of African Early Career epidemiologists, and the conference itself, providing a forum for scientific exchanges on recent epidemiological concepts, encouraging the use of epidemiological methods in studying large disease burden and neglected tropical diseases; and highlighting existing opportunities.

Methodology in the epidemiological research of respiratory diseases and environmental pollution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simón Barquera

2002-02-01

Full Text Available There are complex and diverse methodological problems involved in the clinical and epidemiological study of respiratory diseases and their etiological factors. The association of urban growth, industrialization and environmental deterioration with respiratory diseases makes it necessary to pay more attention to this research area with a multidisciplinary approach. Appropriate study designs and statistical techniques to analyze and improve our understanding of the pathological events and their causes must be implemented to reduce the growing morbidity and mortality through better preventive actions and health programs. The objective of the article is to review the most common methodological problems in this research area and to present the most available statistical tools used.

Methodology in the epidemiological research of respiratory diseases and environmental pollution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barquera Simón

2002-01-01

Full Text Available There are complex and diverse methodological problems involved in the clinical and epidemiological study of respiratory diseases and their etiological factors. The association of urban growth, industrialization and environmental deterioration with respiratory diseases makes it necessary to pay more attention to this research area with a multidisciplinary approach. Appropriate study designs and statistical techniques to analyze and improve our understanding of the pathological events and their causes must be implemented to reduce the growing morbidity and mortality through better preventive actions and health programs. The objective of the article is to review the most common methodological problems in this research area and to present the most available statistical tools used.

An epidemiologic model to project the impact of changes in glomerular filtration rate on quality of life and survival among persons with chronic kidney disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Levy AR

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Adrian R Levy,1,2 Robert M Perkins,3 Karissa M Johnston,2 Sean D Sullivan,4 Vipan C Sood,5 Wendy Agnese,5 Mark A Schnitzler61Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; 2Oxford Outcomes Ltd, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Center for Health Research and Division of Nephrology, Geisinger Health System, Danville, PA, USA; 4School of Pharmacy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; 5Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma America, Jersey City, NJ, USA; 6Departments of Internal Medicine and Community Health, Saint Louis University, St Louis, MO, USAPurpose: Predicting the timing and number of end-stage renal disease (ESRD cases from a population of individuals with pre-ESRD chronic kidney disease (CKD has not previously been reported. The objective is to predict the timing and number of cases of ESRD occurring over the lifetime of a cohort of hypothetical CKD patients in the US based on a range of baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR values and varying rates of eGFR decline.Methods: A three-state Markov model – functioning kidney, ESRD, and death – with an annual cycle length is used to project changes in baseline eGFR on long-term health outcomes in a hypothetical cohort of CKD patients. Using published eGFR-specific risk equations and adjusting for predictive characteristics, the probability of ESRD (eGFR <10, time to death, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for hypothetical treatments (costing US$10, $5, and $2/day, are projected over the cohort's lifetime under two scenarios: an acute drop in eGFR (mimicking acute kidney injury and a reduced hazard ratio for ESRD (mimicking an effective intervention.Results: Among CKD patients aged 50 years, an acute eGFR decrement from 45 mL/minute to 35 mL/minute yields decreases of 1.6 life-years, 1.5 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs, 0.8 years until ESRD, and an increase of 183 per 1,000 progressing to ESRD. Among CKD patients aged 60 years, lowering

The epidemiology and the pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlinger, Kinga E-mail: karlking@radi.sote.hu; Gyoerke, Tamas; Makoe, Erno; Mester, Adam; Tarjan, Zsolt

2000-09-01

The etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is still unknown. However, a satisfactory solution cannot be far away. IBD actually encompasses two diseases, i.e. Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerous colitis (UC). These diseases resemble each other so closely that they cannot be distinguished even pathologically, but differ from each other sufficiently to regard them as independent entities. Epidemiological observations may be helpful in identifying the true causative factors of this evasive disease. Geographically, the prevalence of the disease has a slope from North to South and, to a lesser degree, from West to East. The Western-Eastern discrepancy can be attributed to a difference in Western life styles. The incidence of the disease has been increasing world-wide of late, but its spread has been slowing down in highly affected countries. Racial and ethnic relations in different populations and immigration studies offer interesting data which can reflect genetic, inherited, environmental and behavioural factors. The disease seems to have a characteristic racial-ethnic distribution: the Jewish population is highly susceptible everywhere, but its prevalence in that population nears that of the domestic society in which they live. In Hungary, the Roma (Gypsies) have a considerably lower prevalence than the average population. This can be attributed to a genetic or environmental influence. According to age, the onset of the disease occurs more often in the second or the third decade of life, but there also is another peak in the 60s. Regarding sexual distribution, there is a slight preponderance of colitis ulcerosa in men and of Crohn's disease in women. It may correspond to the stronger auto-immune affection in the process of Crohn's disease. Environmental factors and behavioural influences also are investigated. Diet, the role of the early ages, smoking habits and the influence of hormonal status and drugs are viewed as useful contributing factors in

Foot-and-mouth disease in pigs: current epidemiological situation and control methods.

Science.gov (United States)

León, Emilio A

2012-03-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is the paradigm of a transboundary animal disease. Beyond any doubt, it is the most serious challenge for livestock's health. Official Veterinary Services from free countries invest considerable amount of money to prevent its introduction, whereas those from endemic countries invest most of their resources in the control of the disease. A very important volume of scientific production is developed every year in different aspects of FMD, and for that reason, the current knowledge makes the diagnosis of the disease easier to a great extent. However, FMD is still endemic in about two-thirds of the countries, and periodically re-emergent in several countries. This paper is a review of recent publications, focusing mainly on control measures and current world epidemiological situation, emphasizing primarily pigs. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul

2013-01-01

Animal movement across the landscape plays a critical role in the ecology of infectious wildlife diseases. Dispersing animals can spread pathogens between infected areas and naïve populations. While tracking free-ranging animals over the geographic scales relevant to landscape-level disease management is challenging, landscape features that influence gene flow among wildlife populations may also influence the contact rates and disease spread between populations. We used spatial diffusion and barriers to white-tailed deer gene flow, identified through landscape genetics, to model the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the infected region of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, USA. Our generalized linear model showed that risk of CWD infection declined exponentially with distance from current outbreaks, and inclusion of gene flow barriers dramatically improved fit and predictive power of the model. Our results indicate that CWD is spreading across the Midwestern landscape from these two endemic foci, but spread is strongly influenced by highways and rivers that also reduce deer gene flow. We used our model to plot a risk map, providing important information for CWD management by identifying likely routes of disease spread and providing a tool for prioritizing disease monitoring and containment efforts. The current analysis may serve as a framework for modeling future disease risk drawing on genetic information to investigate barriers to spread and extending management and monitoring beyond currently affected regions.

Low doses of ionizing radiation and risk of cardiovascular disease: A review of epidemiological studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz-Flamant, C.; Bonaventure, A.; Tirmarche, M.; Laurier, D.; Bernier, M.O.; Milliat, F.

2009-01-01

Background While cardiovascular risks associated with high level of ionizing radiation are well-established, long-term effects of low and medium levels of exposure, between 0 and 5 gray (Gy), on the cardiovascular system are debated. Methods Available literature was reviewed considering various populations, such as survivors of atomic bombs, nuclear workers, Chernobyl liquidators, radiologists and radiological technologists and patients exposed for medical reasons. Results A significant increased risk of cardiovascular diseases associated with low doses of ionizing radiation was observed in 13 studies among the 27 analyzed. The ischemic heart diseases risk was detailed in 16 studies and seven of them showed a significant increase. The cerebrovascular risk was significantly increased in five studies among the 12 considered. Conclusion Some epidemiological and experimental data are clearly in favour of an increased cardiovascular risk associated with exposure to low doses. However, given the multi-factorial origin of cardiovascular diseases and the lack of a clear pathophysiologic mechanism, epidemiological results have to be carefully interpreted. Further research should be conducted in this area. (authors)

A bivariate measurement error model for semicontinuous and continuous variables: Application to nutritional epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Kipnis, Victor; Freedman, Laurence S; Carroll, Raymond J; Midthune, Douglas

2016-03-01

Semicontinuous data in the form of a mixture of a large portion of zero values and continuously distributed positive values frequently arise in many areas of biostatistics. This article is motivated by the analysis of relationships between disease outcomes and intakes of episodically consumed dietary components. An important aspect of studies in nutritional epidemiology is that true diet is unobservable and commonly evaluated by food frequency questionnaires with substantial measurement error. Following the regression calibration approach for measurement error correction, unknown individual intakes in the risk model are replaced by their conditional expectations given mismeasured intakes and other model covariates. Those regression calibration predictors are estimated using short-term unbiased reference measurements in a calibration substudy. Since dietary intakes are often "energy-adjusted," e.g., by using ratios of the intake of interest to total energy intake, the correct estimation of the regression calibration predictor for each energy-adjusted episodically consumed dietary component requires modeling short-term reference measurements of the component (a semicontinuous variable), and energy (a continuous variable) simultaneously in a bivariate model. In this article, we develop such a bivariate model, together with its application to regression calibration. We illustrate the new methodology using data from the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study (Schatzkin et al., 2001, American Journal of Epidemiology 154, 1119-1125), and also evaluate its performance in a simulation study. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Epidemiologic studies of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease and ETS exposure from spousal smoking.

OpenAIRE

Thun, M; Henley, J; Apicella, L

1999-01-01

This article reviews the epidemiologic studies of the association of ischemic heart disease risk and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure from a spouse who smokes. Seventeen studies (nine cohort, eight case-control) comprising more than 485,000 lifelong nonsmokers and 7,345 coronary heart disease (CHD) events were included in a meta-analysis. Together, these studies include 36% more CHD events and 58% more study subjects than were available for review by the U. S. Occupational Safety an...

Models of marine molluscan diseases: Trends and challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Eric N; Hofmann, Eileen E

2015-10-01

Disease effects on host population dynamics and the transmission of pathogens between hosts are two important challenges for understanding how epizootics wax and wane and how disease influences host population dynamics. For the management of marine shellfish resources, marine diseases pose additional challenges in early intervention after the appearance of disease, management of the diseased population to limit a decline in host abundance, and application of measures to restrain that decline once it occurs. Mathematical models provide one approach for quantifying these effects and addressing the competing goals of managing the diseased population versus managing the disease. The majority of models for molluscan diseases fall into three categories distinguished by these competing goals. (1) Models that consider disease effects on the host population tend to focus on pathogen proliferation within the host. Many of the well-known molluscan diseases are pandemic, in that they routinely reach high prevalence rapidly over large geographic expanses, are characterized by transmission that does not depend upon a local source, and exert a significant influence on host population dynamics. Models focused on disease proliferation examine the influence of environmental change on host population metrics and provide a basis to better manage diseased stocks. Such models are readily adapted to questions of fishery management and habitat restoration. (2) Transmission models are designed to understand the mechanisms triggering epizootics, identify factors impeding epizootic development, and evaluate controls on the rate of disease spread over the host's range. Transmission models have been used extensively to study terrestrial diseases, yet little attention has been given to their potential for understanding the epidemiology of marine molluscan diseases. For management of diseases of wild stocks, transmission models open up a range of options, including the application of area

Epidemiological models to control the spread of information in marine mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Schakner, Zachary A; Buhnerkempe, Michael G; Tennis, Mathew J; Stansell, Robert J; van der Leeuw, Bjorn K; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Blumstein, Daniel T

2016-12-14

Socially transmitted wildlife behaviours that create human-wildlife conflict are an emerging problem for conservation efforts, but also provide a unique opportunity to apply principles of infectious disease control to wildlife management. As an example, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) have learned to exploit concentrations of migratory adult salmonids below the fish ladders at Bonneville Dam, impeding endangered salmonid recovery. Proliferation of this foraging behaviour in the sea lion population has resulted in a controversial culling programme of individual sea lions at the dam, but the impact of such culling remains unclear. To evaluate the effectiveness of current and alternative culling strategies, we used network-based diffusion analysis on a long-term dataset to demonstrate that social transmission is implicated in the increase in dam-foraging behaviour and then studied different culling strategies within an epidemiological model of the behavioural transmission data. We show that current levels of lethal control have substantially reduced the rate of social transmission, but failed to effectively reduce overall sea lion recruitment. Earlier implementation of culling could have substantially reduced the extent of behavioural transmission and, ultimately, resulted in fewer animals being culled. Epidemiological analyses offer a promising tool to understand and control socially transmissible behaviours. © 2016 The Author(s).

Latent class models for joint analysis of disease prevalence and high-dimensional semicontinuous biomarker data.

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Zhang, Bo; Chen, Zhen; Albert, Paul S

2012-01-01

High-dimensional biomarker data are often collected in epidemiological studies when assessing the association between biomarkers and human disease is of interest. We develop a latent class modeling approach for joint analysis of high-dimensional semicontinuous biomarker data and a binary disease outcome. To model the relationship between complex biomarker expression patterns and disease risk, we use latent risk classes to link the 2 modeling components. We characterize complex biomarker-specific differences through biomarker-specific random effects, so that different biomarkers can have different baseline (low-risk) values as well as different between-class differences. The proposed approach also accommodates data features that are common in environmental toxicology and other biomarker exposure data, including a large number of biomarkers, numerous zero values, and complex mean-variance relationship in the biomarkers levels. A Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation. Both the MCEM algorithm and model selection procedures are shown to work well in simulations and applications. In applying the proposed approach to an epidemiological study that examined the relationship between environmental polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure and the risk of endometriosis, we identified a highly significant overall effect of PCB concentrations on the risk of endometriosis.

Relationship between Periodontal Diseases and Preterm Birth: Recent Epidemiological and Biological Data

Science.gov (United States)

Huck, O.; Tenenbaum, H.; Davideau, J.-L.

2011-01-01

For ten years, the incidence of preterm birth does not decrease in developed countries despite the promotion of public health programs. Many risk factors have been identified including ethnicity, age, tobacco, and infection. However, almost 50% of preterm birth causes remain unknown. The periodontal diseases are highly prevalent inflammatory and infectious diseases of tooth supporting tissues leading to an oral disability. They influence negatively general health worsening cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Periodontal diseases have been also suspected to increase the rate of preterm birth, but data remain contradictory. The objective of this review is to present the principal results of epidemiological, biological, and interventional studies on the link between periodontal diseases and preterm birth. The conclusions of this work underline the importance for the physician/obstetrician to identify women at risk for preterm birth and to address these patients to dentist for periodontal examination and treatment in order to limit adverse pregnancy outcomes. PMID:22132334

Relationship between Periodontal Diseases and Preterm Birth: Recent Epidemiological and Biological Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Huck

2011-01-01

Full Text Available For ten years, the incidence of preterm birth does not decrease in developed countries despite the promotion of public health programs. Many risk factors have been identified including ethnicity, age, tobacco, and infection. However, almost 50% of preterm birth causes remain unknown. The periodontal diseases are highly prevalent inflammatory and infectious diseases of tooth supporting tissues leading to an oral disability. They influence negatively general health worsening cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Periodontal diseases have been also suspected to increase the rate of preterm birth, but data remain contradictory. The objective of this review is to present the principal results of epidemiological, biological, and interventional studies on the link between periodontal diseases and preterm birth. The conclusions of this work underline the importance for the physician/obstetrician to identify women at risk for preterm birth and to address these patients to dentist for periodontal examination and treatment in order to limit adverse pregnancy outcomes.

WHO - IPHECA: Epidemiological aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souchkevitch, G.

1996-01-01

In May 1991 the World Health Assembly endorsed the establishment of the International Programme on the Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident (IPHECA) under the auspices of WHO. Five pilot projects have been carried out within IPHECA in the study territories of Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine in a period from 1991 to 1994. This pilot projects dealt with the detection and treatment of leukaemia and related diseases (Haematology Project), thyroid disorders (Thyroid project), brain damage during exposure 'in-utero' (Brain Damage 'in-Utero' project) and with the development of the Chernobyl registries (Epidemiological Registry Project). A fifth pilot project on oral health was performed only in Belarus. Epidemiological investigations have been an important component of all IPHECA pilot projects. Within 'Epidemiological Registry' Project such investigations have been the principal activity. But with respect to other IPHECA projects it was carried out in addition to main objectives relating to medical monitoring, early diagnosis and treatment of specific diseases included in project protocols. To support the epidemiological investigations within IPHECA, WHO supplied 41 computers in Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine and provided training for specialists from these countries in internationally recognized centres. The training programmes and host countries were as follows: standardization of epidemiological investigations (United Kingdom), radiation epidemiology (Russia), development of software (United Kingdom), principles of epidemiological investigations (The Czech Republic), cohort investigations (Japan)

WHO - IPHECA: Epidemiological aspects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Souchkevitch, G [World Health Organization, Geneva (Swaziland)

1996-07-01

In May 1991 the World Health Assembly endorsed the establishment of the International Programme on the Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident (IPHECA) under the auspices of WHO. Five pilot projects have been carried out within IPHECA in the study territories of Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine in a period from 1991 to 1994. This pilot projects dealt with the detection and treatment of leukaemia and related diseases (Haematology Project), thyroid disorders (Thyroid project), brain damage during exposure 'in-utero' (Brain Damage 'in-Utero' project) and with the development of the Chernobyl registries (Epidemiological Registry Project). A fifth pilot project on oral health was performed only in Belarus. Epidemiological investigations have been an important component of all IPHECA pilot projects. Within 'Epidemiological Registry' Project such investigations have been the principal activity. But with respect to other IPHECA projects it was carried out in addition to main objectives relating to medical monitoring, early diagnosis and treatment of specific diseases included in project protocols. To support the epidemiological investigations within IPHECA, WHO supplied 41 computers in Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine and provided training for specialists from these countries in internationally recognized centres. The training programmes and host countries were as follows: standardization of epidemiological investigations (United Kingdom), radiation epidemiology (Russia), development of software (United Kingdom), principles of epidemiological investigations (The Czech Republic), cohort investigations (Japan)

Transmission and epidemiology of zoonotic protozoal diseases of companion animals.

Science.gov (United States)

Esch, Kevin J; Petersen, Christine A

2013-01-01

Over 77 million dogs and 93 million cats share our households in the United States. Multiple studies have demonstrated the importance of pets in their owners' physical and mental health. Given the large number of companion animals in the United States and the proximity and bond of these animals with their owners, understanding and preventing the diseases that these companions bring with them are of paramount importance. Zoonotic protozoal parasites, including toxoplasmosis, Chagas' disease, babesiosis, giardiasis, and leishmaniasis, can cause insidious infections, with asymptomatic animals being capable of transmitting disease. Giardia and Toxoplasma gondii, endemic to the United States, have high prevalences in companion animals. Leishmania and Trypanosoma cruzi are found regionally within the United States. These diseases have lower prevalences but are significant sources of human disease globally and are expanding their companion animal distribution. Thankfully, healthy individuals in the United States are protected by intact immune systems and bolstered by good nutrition, sanitation, and hygiene. Immunocompromised individuals, including the growing number of obese and/or diabetic people, are at a much higher risk of developing zoonoses. Awareness of these often neglected diseases in all health communities is important for protecting pets and owners. To provide this awareness, this review is focused on zoonotic protozoal mechanisms of virulence, epidemiology, and the transmission of pathogens of consequence to pet owners in the United States.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Dengue Disease in Latin America and in the Caribbean: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Rafael Torres

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Dengue, an important mosquito-borne virus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti, is a major public health issue in Latin America and the Caribbean. National epidemiological surveillance systems, usually based on passive detection of symptomatic cases, while underestimating the true burden of dengue disease, can provide valuable insight into disease trends and excess reporting and potential outbreaks. We carried out a systematic review of the literature to characterize the recent epidemiology of dengue disease in Latin America and the English-speaking and Hispanic Caribbean Islands. We identified 530 articles, 60 of which met criteria for inclusion. In general, dengue seropositivity across the region was high and increased with age. All four virus serotypes were reported to circulate in the region. These observations varied considerably between and within countries and over time, potentially due to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity and their effect on mosquito densities and differences in socioeconomic factors. This review provides important insight into the major epidemiological characteristics of dengue in distinct regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, allowing gaps in current knowledge and future research needs to be identified.

Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathieu Andraud

Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

From biological anthropology to applied public health: epidemiological approaches to the study of infectious disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Albalak, Rachel

2009-01-01

This article describes two large, multisite infectious disease programs: the Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium (TBESC) and the Emerging Infections Programs (EIPs). The links between biological anthropology and applied public health are highlighted using these programs as examples. Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the TBESC and EIPs conduct applied public health research to strengthen infectious disease prevention and control efforts in the United States. They involve collaborations among CDC, public health departments, and academic and clinical institutions. Their unique role in national infectious disease work, including their links to anthropology, shared elements, key differences, strengths and challenges, is discussed.

The application of epidemiology in aquatic animal health -opportunities and challenges

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Over recent years the growth in aquaculture, accompanied by the emergence of new and transboundary diseases, has stimulated epidemiological studies of aquatic animal diseases. Great potential exists for both observational and theoretical approaches to investigate the processes driving emergence but, to date, compared to terrestrial systems, relatively few studies exist in aquatic animals. Research using risk methods has assessed routes of introduction of aquatic animal pathogens to facilitate safe trade (e.g. import risk analyses) and support biosecurity. Epidemiological studies of risk factors for disease in aquaculture (most notably Atlantic salmon farming) have effectively supported control measures. Methods developed for terrestrial livestock diseases (e.g. risk-based surveillance) could improve the capacity of aquatic animal surveillance systems to detect disease incursions and emergence. The study of disease in wild populations presents many challenges and the judicious use of theoretical models offers some solutions. Models, parameterised from observational studies of host pathogen interactions, have been used to extrapolate estimates of impacts on the individual to the population level. These have proved effective in estimating the likely impact of parasite infections on wild salmonid populations in Switzerland and Canada (where the importance of farmed salmon as a reservoir of infection was investigated). A lack of data is often the key constraint in the application of new approaches to surveillance and modelling. The need for epidemiological approaches to protect aquatic animal health will inevitably increase in the face of the combined challenges of climate change, increasing anthropogenic pressures, limited water sources and the growth in aquaculture. Table of contents 1 Introduction 4 2 The development of aquatic epidemiology 7 3 Transboundary and emerging diseases 9 3.1 Import risk analysis (IRA) 10 3.2 Aquaculture and disease emergence 11 3.3 Climate

Epidemiological Features and Trends of Brown Spot of Pear Disease Based on the Diversity of Pathogen Populations and Climate Change Effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Moragrega, Concepció; Puig, Mireia; Ruz, Lídia; Montesinos, Emilio; Llorente, Isidre

2018-02-01

Brown spot of pear, caused by the fungus Stemphylium vesicarium, is an emerging disease of economic importance in several pear-growing areas in Europe. In recent years, new control strategies combining sanitation practices and fungicide applications according to developed forecasting models have been introduced to manage the disease. However, the pathogenic and saprophytic behavior of this pathogen makes it difficult to manage the disease. In addition, climate change can also result in variations in the severity and geographical distribution of the disease. In this study, ecological and epidemiological aspects of brown spot of pear disease related to inoculum characterization and climate change impact were elucidated. The pathogenic variation in S. vesicarium populations from pear orchards and its relationship to inoculum sources (air samples, leaf debris, and infected host and nonhost tissues) was determined using multivariate analysis. In total, six variables related to infection and disease development on cultivar Conference pear detached leaves of 110 S. vesicarium isolates were analyzed. A high proportion of isolates (42%) were nonpathogenic to pear; 85% of these nonpathogenic isolates were recovered from air samples. Most isolates recovered from lesions (93%) and pseudothecia (83%) were pathogenic to pear. A group of pathogenic isolates rapidly infected cultivar Conference pear leaves resulted in disease increase that followed a monomolecular model, whereas some S. vesicarium isolates required a period of time after inoculation to initiate infection and resulted in disease increase that followed a logistic model. The latter group was mainly composed of isolates recovered from pseudothecia on leaf debris, whereas the former group was mainly composed of isolates recovered from lesions on pear fruit and leaves. The relationship between the source of inoculum and pathogenic/aggressiveness profile was confirmed by principal component analysis. The effect of

Epidemiologic Considerations in Network Modeling of Theoretical Disease Events

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lem, Marcus

2006-01-01

.... Network analysis has shown utility in the study of a range of communicable disease outbreaks affecting both health and commerce, including SARS, tuberculosis, syphilis and foot-and mouth-disease...

Detection and typing of Xylella fastidiosa from glassy-winged sharpshooter for Pierce’s disease epidemiology

Science.gov (United States)

Epidemiology of Pierce’s disease of grape, caused by the bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa (Xf), is largely dependent on populations of insect vectors such as the invasive glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS) (Homalodisca vitripennis). In the grape-growing regions of the southern San Joaquin Valley...

Enterovirus D68 disease and molecular epidemiology in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Avram; Roberts, Jason; Lang, Jurissa; Tempone, Simone; Kesson, Alison; Dofai, Alfred; Daley, Andrew J; Thorley, Bruce; Speers, David J

2015-08-01

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has received considerable recent attention as a cause of widespread respiratory illness. Neurological syndromes such as acute flaccid paralysis following EV-D68 infection have also been reported in a small number of cases. To summarize the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of laboratory confirmed EV-D68 cases in Australia. We combined EV-D68 data acquired through laboratory surveillance in Western Australia with cases from national enterovirus surveillance and regional acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. Clinical data was obtained for EV-D68 cases and capsid protein sequences were used for phylogenetic analysis. Sporadic cases of EV-D68 were recorded in Australia since 2008, with peaks in activity during 2011 and 2013. EV-D68 was primarily associated with respiratory disease, but was also detected in cerebrospinal fluid of one patient and faeces of two patients presenting with AFP. EV-D68 has been circulating in Western Australia and is likely to have also been present in the wider region for a number of years, causing primarily respiratory disease. Detection of EV-D68 in cerebrospinal fluid of one patient and in faeces of two AFP cases reinforces the association between EV-D68 and neurological disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Materials of VII congress of hygienists, sanitarians, epidemiologists and infectious diseases specialists of the republic of Uzbekistan 'Actual problems of hygiene, toxicology, epidemiology and infectious diseases in the republic of Uzbekistan'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandarov, T.I.; Kamil'dzhanov, A.Kh.

2000-01-01

The VII congress of hygienists, sanitarians, epidemiologists and infectious diseases specialists of the republic of Uzbekistan 'Actual problems of hygiene, toxicology, epidemiology and infectious diseases in the republic of Uzbekistan' was held on 2000 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Specialists discussed various aspects of actual problems of hygiene, toxicology, epidemiology and infectious diseases . They discussed also some aspects of radiology and nuclear medicine, radiation protection and dosimetry, radiation and other environmental pollutant effect on living organisms and biological materials. More than 100 talks were presented in the meeting. (k.m.)

Asthma: epidemiology of disease control in Latin America - short review.

Science.gov (United States)

Solé, Dirceu; Aranda, Carolina Sanchez; Wandalsen, Gustavo Falbo

2017-01-01

Asthma is reported as one of the most common chronic diseases in childhood, impairing the quality of life of patients and their families and incurring high costs to the healthcare system and society. Despite the development of new drugs and the availability of international treatment guidelines, asthma is still poorly controlled, especially in Latin America. Original and review articles on asthma control or epidemiology with high levels of evidence have been selected for analysis among those published in PubMed referenced journals during the last 20 years, using the following keywords: "asthma control" combined with "Latin America", " epidemiology", "prevalence", "burden", "mortality", "treatment and unmet needs", "children", "adolescents", and "infants". There was a high prevalence and severity of asthma during the period analyzed, especially in children and adolescents. Wheezing in infants was a significant reason for seeking medical care in Latin American health centers. Moreover, the frequent use of quick-relief bronchodilators and oral corticosteroids by these patients indicates the lack of a policy for providing better care for asthmatic patients, as well as poor asthma control. Among adults, studies document poor treatment and control of the disease, as revealed by low adherence to routine anti-inflammatory medications and high rates of emergency care visits and hospitalization. In conclusion, although rare, studies on asthma control in Latin America repeatedly show that patients are inadequately controlled and frequently overestimate their degree of asthma control according to the criteria used by international asthma treatment guidelines. Additional education for doctors and patients is essential for adequate control of this illness, and therefore also for reduction of the individual and social burden of asthma.

[Epidemiology of cerebrovascular disease in Spain].

Science.gov (United States)

Brea, Angel; Laclaustra, Martín; Martorell, Esperanza; Pedragosa, Angels

2013-01-01

In Spain, cerebrovascular disease (CVD) is a very common cause of morbidity and hospitalization. They are the second leading cause of mortality in the general population, and the first in women. They also constitute a very high social spending, which is estimated to increase in coming years, due to the aging of our population. Data from the Hospital Morbidity Survey of the National Statistics Institute recorded, in 2011, 116,017 strokes and 14,933 transient ischemic attacks, corresponding, respectively, to an incidence of 252 and 32 events per 100,000 people. In 2002, the cost of hospitalization for each stroke was estimated at €3,047. The amount of total cost health care throughout the life of a stroke patient is calculated at €43,129. Internationally, the direct costs of stroke constitute 3% of national health spending, this being similar amount in different countries around us. Hypertension was the cardiovascular risk factor (CVRF) more prevalent in both ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes, followed by dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus. Peripheral arterial disease and hypertension were more frequently associated with atherothrombotic events, atrial fibrillation with cardioembolic strokes, and obesity and high blood pressure to lacunar infarcts. In Spain, as showing several studies, we are far from optimal control of CVRF, especially in secondary prevention of stroke. According to the ICTUSCARE study, achieving recommended values was 17.6% in the case of hypertension, 29.8% in LDL-cholesterol, 74.9% of smoking, and 50.2% in diabetes mellitus. In this review, we analyze in detail the epidemiology, prevention and costs originated by CVD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEA. All rights reserved.

The failure of academic epidemiology: witness for the prosecution.

Science.gov (United States)

Shy, C M

1997-03-15

Academic epidemiology has failed to develop the scientific methods and the knowledge base to support the fundamental public health mission of preventing disease and promoting health through organized community efforts. As a basic science of public health, epidemiology should attempt to understand health and disease from a community and ecologic perspective as a consequence of how society is organized and behaves, what impact social and economic forces have on disease incidence rates, and what community actions will be effective in altering incidence rates. However, as taught in most textbooks and as widely practiced by academicians, epidemiology has become a biomedical discipline focused on the distribution and determinants of disease in groups of individuals who happen to have some common characteristics, exposures, or diseases. The ecology of human health has not been addressed, and the societal context in which disease occurs has been either disregarded or deliberately abstracted from consideration. By essentially assuming that risk factors for disease in individuals can be summed to understand the causes of disease in populations, academic epidemiology has limited itself to a narrow biomedical perspective, thereby committing the bio-medical fallacy of inferring that disease in populations can be understood by studying risk factors for disease in individuals. Epidemiology should be redefined as a study of the distribution and societal determinants of the health status of populations. This definition provides a stronger link to be the primary mission of public health and places an appropriate emphasis on the social, economic, environmental, and cultural determinants of population health. Epidemiology must cross the boundaries of other population sciences and add to its scope a macro-epidemiology, a study of causes from a truly population perspective, considering health and disease within the context of the total human environment.

Epidemiology of Schizophrenia: Review of Findings and Myths

OpenAIRE

Messias, Erick; Chen, Chuan-Yu; Eaton, William W.

2007-01-01

By describing patterns of disease distribution within populations, identifying risk factors, and finding associations, epidemiological studies have contributed to our current understanding of schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age and the association with auto-immune diseases are some of the newly described epidemiological finding in schizophrenia epidemiology, shaping our current definition of schizophrenia. Though early intervention strategies have gained momentum, primary prevention of schiz...

Worldwide Report, Epidemiology, No. 327

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1983-01-01

Partial Contents: Epidemiology, Human Diseases, Health, Malaria, AIDS, Homosexual Male, Medical Administration, Rabies, Tuberculosis, Encephalitis Statistics, Gastroenteritie, Mystery Diseases, Children, Epidemics...

The rising impact of mathematical modelling in epidemiology: antibiotic resistance research as a case study

Science.gov (United States)

TEMIME, L.; HEJBLUM, G.; SETBON, M.; VALLERON, A. J.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases has gradually become part of public health decision-making in recent years. However, the developing status of modelling in epidemiology and its relationship with other relevant scientific approaches have never been assessed quantitatively. Herein, using antibiotic resistance as a case study, 60 published models were analysed. Their interactions with other scientific fields are reported and their citation impact evaluated, as well as temporal trends. The yearly number of antibiotic resistance modelling publications increased significantly between 1990 and 2006. This rise cannot be explained by the surge of interest in resistance phenomena alone. Moreover, modelling articles are, on average, among the most frequently cited third of articles from the journal in which they were published. The results of this analysis, which might be applicable to other emerging public health problems, demonstrate the growing interest in mathematical modelling approaches to evaluate antibiotic resistance. PMID:17767792

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

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Tatem Andrew J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Bansal, Shweta; Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Vespignani, Alessandro; Viboud, Cécile

2016-12-01

We devote a special issue of the Journal of Infectious Diseases to review the recent advances of big data in strengthening disease surveillance, monitoring medical adverse events, informing transmission models, and tracking patient sentiments and mobility. We consider a broad definition of big data for public health, one encompassing patient information gathered from high-volume electronic health records and participatory surveillance systems, as well as mining of digital traces such as social media, Internet searches, and cell-phone logs. We introduce nine independent contributions to this special issue and highlight several cross-cutting areas that require further research, including representativeness, biases, volatility, and validation, and the need for robust statistical and hypotheses-driven analyses. Overall, we are optimistic that the big-data revolution will vastly improve the granularity and timeliness of available epidemiological information, with hybrid systems augmenting rather than supplanting traditional surveillance systems, and better prospects for accurate infectious diseases models and forecasts. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy; Andreasen, Viggo

2015-01-01

The spread of infectious diseases can be unpredictable. With the emergence of antibiotic resistance and worrying new viruses, and with ambitious plans for global eradication of polio and the elimination of malaria, the stakes have never been higher. Anticipation and measurement of the multiple fa...... models used in epidemiology and how these can be harnessed to develop successful control strategies and inform public health policy...

The epidemiology of pneumococcal carriage and infections in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Cheng-Foh; Jefferies, Johanna M; Yusof, Mohd Yasim Mohd; Sekaran, Shamala Devi; Clarke, Stuart C

2012-06-01

In Malaysia, various aspects of the epidemiology of pneumococcal carriage and disease remain largely unclear due to the lack of supporting data. Although a number of relevant studies have been documented, their individual discrete findings are not sufficient to inform experts on pneumococcal epidemiology at a national level. Therefore, in this review we aim to bring together and systematically evaluate the key information regarding pneumococcal disease epidemiology in Malaysia and provide a comprehensive overview of the data. Major aspects discussed include pneumococcal carriage, disease incidence and prevalence, age factors, invasiveness of pneumococci, serotypes, molecular epidemiology and antibiotic susceptibility. Penicillin resistance is increasingly prevalent and studies suggest that the majority of pneumococcal serotypes causing pneumococcal disease in Malaysia are covered by currently available conjugate vaccines. Continued surveillance is needed to provide a better understanding of pneumococcal epidemiology in Malaysia.

Epigenetics and epidemiology: models of study and examples.

Science.gov (United States)

van Veldhoven, Karin; Rahman, Shati; Vineis, Paolo

2014-01-01

Epidemiological studies have successfully identified several environmental causes of disease, but often these studies are limited by methodological problems (e.g. lack of sensitivity and specificity in exposure assessment; confounding). Proposed approaches to improve observational studies of environmental associations are Mendelian randomization and the meet-in-the-middle (MITM) approach. The latter uses signals from the growing field of -omics as putative intermediate biomarkers in the pathogenetic process that links exposure with disease. The first part of this approach consists in the association between exposure and disease. The next step consists in the study of the relationship between (biomarkers of) exposure and intermediate -omic biomarkers of early effect; thirdly, the relation between the disease outcome and intermediate -omic biomarkers is assessed. We propose that when an association is found in all three steps it is possible that there is a casual association. One of the associations that have been investigated extensively in the recent years but is not completely understood is that between environmental endocrine disruptors and breast cancer. Here we present an example of how the "meet-in-the-middle" approach can be used to address the role of endocrine disruptors, by reviewing the relevant literature.

Using epidemiological information to develop effective integrated virus disease management strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Roger A C

2004-03-01

Virus diseases cause serious losses in yield and quality of cultivated plants worldwide. These losses and the resulting financial damage can be limited by controlling epidemics using measures that minimise virus infection sources or suppress virus spread. For each combination of virus, cultivated plant and production system, there is an 'economic threshold' above which the financial damage is sufficient to justify using such measures. However, individual measures used alone may bring only small benefits and they may become ineffective, especially over the long term. When diverse control measures that act in different ways are combined and used together, their effects are complementary resulting in far more effective overall control. Such experiences have led to the development of integrated management concepts for virus diseases that combine available host resistance, cultural, chemical and biological control measures. Selecting the ideal mix of measures for each pathosystem and production situation requires detailed knowledge of the epidemiology of the causal virus and the mode of action of each individual control measure so that diverse responses can be devised to meet the unique features of each of the different scenarios considered. The strategies developed must be robust and necessitate minimal extra expense, labour demands and disruption to standard practices. Examples of how epidemiological information can be used to develop effective integrated disease management (IDM) strategies for diverse situations are described. They involve circumstances where virus transmission from plant-to-plant occurs in four different ways: by contact, non-persistently or persistently by insect vectors, and by root-infecting fungi. The examples are: Subterranean clover mottle virus (SCMoV) (contact-transmitted) and Bean yellow mosaic virus (BYMV) (non-persistently aphid-transmitted) in annually self-regenerating clover pasture; three seed-borne viruses (all non-persistently aphid

Computational Evolutionary Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Forecasting in Epidemiology and Medicine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, Dhananjai M.; Chernyakhovsky, Alexander; Rao, Victoria

2008-01-01

Humanity is facing an increasing number of highly virulent and communicable diseases such as avian influenza. Researchers believe that avian influenza has potential to evolve into one of the deadliest pandemics. Combating these diseases requires in-depth knowledge of their epidemiology. An effective methodology for discovering epidemiological knowledge is to utilize a descriptive, evolutionary, ecological model and use bio-simulations to study and analyze it. These types of bio-simulations fall under the category of computational evolutionary methods because the individual entities participating in the simulation are permitted to evolve in a natural manner by reacting to changes in the simulated ecosystem. This work describes the application of the aforementioned methodology to discover epidemiological knowledge about avian influenza using a novel eco-modeling and bio-simulation environment called SEARUMS. The mathematical principles underlying SEARUMS, its design, and the procedure for using SEARUMS are discussed. The bio-simulations and multi-faceted case studies conducted using SEARUMS elucidate its ability to pinpoint timelines, epicenters, and socio-economic impacts of avian influenza. This knowledge is invaluable for proactive deployment of countermeasures in order to minimize negative socioeconomic impacts, combat the disease, and avert a pandemic

Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella.

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Romain Silhol

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0-11 years old.Moreover, the individual-based model structure allowed us to reproduce several observed features of VZV epidemiology which were not included as hypotheses in the model: the age at varicella in first-born children was older than in other children, in accordance with observation; the same was true for children residing in rural areas. Model predicted incidence was comparable to observed incidence over time. These results show that models based on detailed census data on a small scale provide valid small scale prediction. By simulating several scenarios, we evaluate how varicella epidemiology is shaped by policies, such as age at first school enrolment, and school eviction. This supports the use of such models for investigating outcomes of public health measures.

Incidence of diseases primarily affecting the skin by age group: population-based epidemiologic study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and comparison with age-specific incidence rates worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Wessman, Laurel L; Andersen, Louise K; Davis, Mark D P

2018-01-29

Understanding the effects of age on the epidemiology of diseases primarily affecting the skin is important to the practice of dermatology, both for proper allocation of resources and for optimal patient-centered care. To fully appreciate the effect that age may have on the population-based calculations of incidence of diseases primarily affecting the skin in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and worldwide, we performed a review of all relevant Rochester Epidemiology Project-published data and compared them to similar reports in the worldwide English literature. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, population-based epidemiologic studies have been performed to estimate the incidence of specific skin diseases over the past 50 years. In older persons (>65 years), nonmelanoma skin cancer, lentigo maligna, herpes zoster, delusional infestation, venous stasis syndrome, venous ulcer, and burning mouth syndrome were more commonly diagnosed. In those younger than 65 years, atypical nevi, psoriatic arthritis, pityriasis rosea, herpes progenitalis, genital warts, alopecia areata, hidradenitis suppurativa, infantile hemangioma, Behçet's disease, and sarcoidosis (isolated cutaneous, with sarcoidosis-specific cutaneous lesions and with erythema nodosum) had a higher incidence. Many of the incidence rates by age group of diseases primarily affecting the skin derived from the Rochester Epidemiology Project were similar to those reported elsewhere. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

Epidemiological characteristics of chronic kidney disease of non-traditional causes in women of agricultural communities of El Salvador.

Science.gov (United States)

Orantes Navarro, Carlos M; Herrera Valdés, Raúl; López, Miguel Almaguer; Calero, Denis J; Fuentes de Morales, Jackeline; Alvarado Ascencio, Nelly P; Vela Parada, Xavier F; Zelaya Quezada, Susana M; Granados Castro, Delmy V; Orellana de Figueroa, Patricia

2015-01-01

In El Salvador end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was the first cause of hospital mortality overall, the first cause of hospital deaths in men, and the fifth cause of hospital mortality in women in 2013. In agricultural communities, chronic kidney disease (CKD) occurs predominantly in male agricultural workers, but it also affects women to a lesser degree, even those who are not involved in agricultural work. Internationally, most epidemiological CKD studies emphasize men and no epidemiological studies focused exclusively on women. To describe the epidemiological characteristics of CKD in females in agricultural communities of El Salvador. A cross-sectional epidemiological study was carried out in 2009 - 2011 based on active screening for CKD and risk factors in women aged ≥ 18 years in 3 disadvantaged populations of El Salvador: Bajo Lempa (Usulután Department), Guayapa Abajo (Ahuachapán Department), and Las Brisas (San Miguel Department). Epidemiological and clinical data were gathered through personal history, as well as urinalysis for renal damage markers, determinations of serum creatinine and glucose, and estimation of glomerular filtration rates. CKD cases were confirmed at 3 months. Prevalence of CKD was 13.9% in 1,412 women from 1,306 families studied. Chronic kidney disease of nontraditional causes (CKDu), not attributed to diabetes mellitus, hypertension, or proteinuric primary glomerulopathy (proteinuria > 1 g/L) was 6.6%. Prevalence of chronic renal failure was 6.8%. Prevalence of renal damage markers was 9.8% (microalbuminuria (30 - 300 mg/L) 5.7%; macroalbuminuria (> 300 mg/L) 2%; and hematuria, 2.1%. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease risk factors was: diabetes mellitus, 9.3%; hypertension, 23%; family history of CKD, 16%; family history of diabetes mellitus (DM), 18.7%; family history of hypertension (HT), 31.9%; obesity, 21%; central obesity, 30.7%; NSAID use, 84.3%; agricultural occupation, 15.2%; and contact with agrochemicals, 33.1%. CKD in

Ozone Atmospheric Pollution and Alzheimer's Disease: From Epidemiological Facts to Molecular Mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Croze, Marine L; Zimmer, Luc

2018-01-01

Atmospheric pollution is a well-known environmental hazard, especially in developing countries where millions of people are exposed to airborne pollutant levels above safety standards. Accordingly, several epidemiological and animal studies confirmed its role in respiratory and cardiovascular pathologies and identified a strong link between ambient air pollution exposure and adverse health outcomes such as hospitalization and mortality. More recently, the potential deleterious effect of air pollution inhalation on the central nervous system was also investigated and mounting evidence supports a link between air pollution exposure and neurodegenerative pathologies, especially Alzheimer's disease (AD). The focus of this review is to highlight the possible link between ozone air pollution exposure and AD incidence. This review's approach will go from observational and epidemiological facts to the proposal of molecular mechanisms. First, epidemiological and postmortem human study data concerning residents of ozone-severely polluted megacities will be presented and discussed. Then, the more particular role of ozone air pollution in AD pathology will be described and evidenced by toxicological studies in rat or mouse with ozone pollution exposure only. The experimental paradigms used to reproduce in rodent the human exposure to ozone air pollution will be described. Finally, current insights into the molecular mechanisms through which ozone inhalation can affect the brain and play a role in AD development or progression will be recapitulated.

Economic epidemiology of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms☆

Science.gov (United States)

Boni, Maciej F.; Galvani, Alison P.; Wickelgren, Abraham L.; Malani, Anup

2013-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is often controlled through culling of poultry. Compensating farmers for culled chickens or ducks facilitates effective culling and control of HPAI. However, ensuing price shifts can create incentives that alter the disease dynamics of HPAI. Farmers control certain aspects of the dynamics by setting a farm size, implementing infection control measures, and determining the age at which poultry are sent to market. Their decisions can be influenced by the market price of poultry which can, in turn, be set by policy makers during an HPAI outbreak. Here, we integrate these economic considerations into an epidemiological model in which epidemiological parameters are determined by an outside agent (the farmer) to maximize profit from poultry sales. Our model exhibits a diversity of behaviors which are sensitive to (i) the ability to identify infected poultry, (ii) the average price of infected poultry, (iii) the basic reproductive number of avian influenza, (iv) the effect of culling on the market price of poultry, (v) the effect of market price on farm size, and (vi) the effect of poultry density on disease transmission. We find that under certain market and epidemiological conditions, culling can increase farm size and the total number of HPAI infections. Our model helps to inform the optimization of public health outcomes that best weigh the balance between public health risk and beneficial economic outcomes for farmers. PMID:24161559

Mapping epidemiology's past to inform its future: metaknowledge analysis of epidemiologic topics in leading journals, 1974-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Trinquart, Ludovic; Galea, Sandro

2015-07-15

An empiric perspective on what epidemiology has studied over time might inform discussions about future directions for the discipline. We aimed to identify the main areas of epidemiologic inquiry and determine how they evolved over time in 5 high-impact epidemiologic journals. We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 20,895 articles that were published between 1974 and 2013. In 5 time periods that reflected approximately equal numbers of articles, we identified the main topics by clustering terms based on co-occurrence. Infectious disease and cardiovascular disease epidemiology were the prevailing topics over the 5 periods. Cancer epidemiology was a major topic from 1974 to 2001 but disappeared thereafter. Nutritional epidemiology gained relative importance from 1974 to 2013. Environmental epidemiology appeared during 1996-2001 and continued to be important, whereas 2 clusters related to methodology and meta-analysis in genetics appeared during 2008-2013. Several areas of epidemiology, including injury or psychiatric epidemiology, did not make an appearance as major topics at any time. In an ancillary analysis of 6 high-impact general medicine journals, we found patterns of epidemiologic articles that were overall consistent with the findings in epidemiologic journals. This metaknowledge investigation allowed identification of the dominant topics in and conversely those that were absent from 5 major epidemiologic journals. We discuss implications for the field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population Neuroscience: Dementia Epidemiology Serving Precision Medicine and Population Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguli, Mary; Albanese, Emiliano; Seshadri, Sudha; Bennett, David A; Lyketsos, Constantine; Kukull, Walter A; Skoog, Ingmar; Hendrie, Hugh C

2018-01-01

Over recent decades, epidemiology has made significant contributions to our understanding of dementia, translating scientific discoveries into population health. Here, we propose reframing dementia epidemiology as "population neuroscience," blending techniques and models from contemporary neuroscience with those of epidemiology and biostatistics. On the basis of emerging evidence and newer paradigms and methods, population neuroscience will minimize the bias typical of traditional clinical research, identify the relatively homogenous subgroups that comprise the general population, and investigate broader and denser phenotypes of dementia and cognitive impairment. Long-term follow-up of sufficiently large study cohorts will allow the identification of cohort effects and critical windows of exposure. Molecular epidemiology and omics will allow us to unravel the key distinctions within and among subgroups and better understand individuals' risk profiles. Interventional epidemiology will allow us to identify the different subgroups that respond to different treatment/prevention strategies. These strategies will inform precision medicine. In addition, insights into interactions between disease biology, personal and environmental factors, and social determinants of health will allow us to measure and track disease in communities and improve population health. By placing neuroscience within a real-world context, population neuroscience can fulfill its potential to serve both precision medicine and population health.

Diagnosis and epidemiology of respiratory system diseases due to plant dusts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goscicki, J.W.; Indulski, J.A.

1981-01-01

Of the respiratory tract diseases - byssinosis - i.e. the disease diagnosed in textile industry workers has aroused interest and controversies for many years. In Western Europe Countries the USA, Egypt and Pakistan this disease was diagnosed in more than half of the workers employed at cotton processing. Epidemiological data imply that in Eastern and Middle Europe few authors diagnose byssinosis in the population exposed to vegetable dusts. In the Soviet Union, the greatest cotton producer in the world, processing the greatest amounts of this raw material in the textile industry, medical examinations carried out in different centres did not show byssinosis symptoms in textile workers, that would apply to Schilling's criteria. Vegetable dusts inherent in agricultural and food industry largely promote the occurrence of nonspecific respiratory tract diseases. They are diagnosed as chronic bronchitis, which at dusted workstations are the mean cause of sickness absenteeism. The preventive activities aimed at the reduction of hazardous effects of dust upon organism would consist mostly in application of technical measures, i.e. technological processes hermetization and ventilation and only in scarce cases - in the use of good antidust personal protective measures.

Below the poverty line and non-communicable diseases in Kerala: The Epidemiology of Non-communicable Diseases in Rural Areas (ENDIRA) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Menon, Jaideep; Vijayakumar, N; Joseph, Joseph K; David, P C; Menon, M N; Mukundan, Shyam; Dorphy, P D; Banerjee, Amitava

2015-01-01

India carries the greatest burden of global non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Poverty is strongly associated with NCDs but there are few prevalence studies which have measured poverty in India, particularly in rural settings. In Kerala, India, a population of 113,462 individuals was identified. The "Epidemiology of Non-communicable Diseases in Rural Areas" (ENDIRA) study was conducted via ASHAs (Accredited Social Health Activists). Standardised questionnaires were used in household interviews of individuals ≥18years during 2012 to gather sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical data for this population. The Government of Kerala definition of "the poverty line" was used. The association between below poverty line (BPL) status, NCDs and risk factors was analysed in multivariable regression models. 84,456 adults were included in the analyses (25.4% below the poverty line). The prevalence of NCDs was relatively common: myocardial infarction (MI) 1.4%, stroke 0.3%, respiratory diseases 5.0%, and cancer 1.1%. BPL status was not associated with age (p=0.96) or gender (p=0.26). Compared with those above the poverty line (APL), the BPL group was less likely to have diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia (ppoverty line status. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal network epidemiology

CERN Document Server

Holme, Petter

2017-01-01

This book covers recent developments in epidemic process models and related data on temporally varying networks. It is widely recognized that contact networks are indispensable for describing, understanding, and intervening to stop the spread of infectious diseases in human and animal populations; “network epidemiology” is an umbrella term to describe this research field. More recently, contact networks have been recognized as being highly dynamic. This observation, also supported by an increasing amount of new data, has led to research on temporal networks, a rapidly growing area. Changes in network structure are often informed by epidemic (or other) dynamics, in which case they are referred to as adaptive networks. This volume gathers contributions by prominent authors working in temporal and adaptive network epidemiology, a field essential to understanding infectious diseases in real society.

Distantiae transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi: a new epidemiological feature of acute Chagas disease in Brazil.

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Samanta Cristina das Chagas Xavier

2014-05-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The new epidemiological scenario of orally transmitted Chagas disease that has emerged in Brazil, and mainly in the Amazon region, needs to be addressed with a new and systematic focus. Belém, the capital of Pará state, reports the highest number of acute Chagas disease (ACD cases associated with the consumption of açaí juice. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The wild and domestic enzootic transmission cycles of Trypanosoma cruzi were evaluated in the two locations (Jurunas and Val-de Cães that report the majority of the autochthonous cases of ACD in Belém city. Moreover, we evaluated the enzootic cycle on the three islands that provide most of the açaí fruit that is consumed in these localities. We employed parasitological and serological tests throughout to evaluate infectivity competence and exposure to T. cruzi. In Val-de-Cães, no wild mammal presented positive parasitological tests, and 56% seroprevalence was observed, with low serological titers. Three of 14 triatomines were found to be infected (TcI. This unexpected epidemiological picture does not explain the high number of autochthonous ACD cases. In Jurunas, the cases of ACD could not be autochthonous because of the absence of any enzootic cycle of T. cruzi. In contrast, in the 3 island areas from which the açaí fruit originates, 66.7% of wild mammals and two dogs displayed positive hemocultures, and 15.6% of triatomines were found to be infected by T. cruzi. Genotyping by mini-exon gene and PCR-RFLP (1f8/Akw21I targeting revealed that the mammals and triatomines from the islands harbored TcI and Trypanosoma rangeli in single and mixed infections. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings show that cases of Chagas disease in the urban area of Belém may be derived from infected triatomines coming together with the açaí fruits from distant islands. We term this new epidemiological feature of Chagas disease as "Distantiae transmission".

Immunogenetic basis of environmental lung disease: Lessons from the berylliosis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saltini, C.; Richeldi, L.; Amicosante, M.; Franchi, A.; Lombardi, G.

1998-01-01

The role of genetic factors has been hypothesized in the pathogenesis of a number of chronic inflammatory lung diseases. The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus on human chromosome 6 have been identified as important determinants in diseases caused both by inorganic and organic compounds such as beryllium, gold, acid anhydrides, isocyanates and grass pollens. Since many environmental factors are the determinants of the immunopathogenesis of asthma, pulmonary granulomatous disorders, hypersensitivity pneumonitis and fibrotic lung disorders, an understanding of the interaction between environmental factors is crucial to epidemiology, prevention and treatment of these disorders. Berylliosis is an environmental chronic inflammatory disorder of the lung caused by inhalation of beryllium dusts. A human leukocyte antigen class II marker (HLA-DP Glu69) has been found to be strongly associated with the disease. In in vitro studies, the gene has been shown to play a direct role in the immunopathogenesis of the disease. In human studies, the gene has been shown to confer increased susceptibility to beryllium in exposed workers, thus suggesting that HLA gene markers may be used as epidemiological probes to identify population groups at higher risk of environmental lung diseases, to identify environmental levels of lung immunotoxicants that would be safe for the entire population and the prevent disease risk associated with occupation, manufactured products and the environment. Studies on the associations between human leukocyte antigens and chronic inflammatory lung disorders are reviewed in the context of the berylliosis model. (au)

Participatory epidemiology: the contribution of participatory research to epidemiology

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Mario Bach

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiology has contributed in many ways to identifying various risk factors for disease and to promoting population health. However, there is a continuing debate about the ability of epidemiology not only to describe, but also to provide results which can be better translated into public health practice. It has been proposed that participatory research approaches be applied to epidemiology as a way to bridge this gap between description and action. A systematic account of what constitutes participatory epidemiology practice has, however, been lacking. Methods A scoping review was carried out focused on the question of what constitutes participatory approaches to epidemiology for the purpose of demonstrating their potential for advancing epidemiologic research. Relevant databases were searched, including both the published and non-published (grey literature. The 102 identified sources were analyzed in terms of comparing common epidemiologic approaches to participatory counterparts regarding central aspects of the research process. Exemplary studies applying participatory approaches were examined more closely. Results A highly diverse, interdisciplinary body of literature was synthesized, resulting in a framework comprised of seven aspects of the research process: research goal, research question, population, context, data synthesis, research management, and dissemination of findings. The framework specifies how participatory approaches not only differ from, but also how they can enhance common approaches in epidemiology. Finally, recommendations for the further development of participatory approaches are given. These include: enhancing data collection, data analysis, and data validation; advancing capacity building for research at the local level; and developing data synthesis. Conclusion The proposed framework provides a basis for systematically developing the emergent science of participatory epidemiology.

Diagnostic electrocardiography in epidemiological studies of Chagas' disease: multicenter evaluation of a standardized method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lázzari Julio O.

1998-01-01

Full Text Available An electrocardiographic recording method with an associated reading guide, designed for epidemiological studies on Chagas' disease, was tested to assess its diagnostic reproducibility. Six cardiologists from five countries each read 100 electrocardiographic (ECG tracings, including 30 from chronic chagasic patients, then reread them after an interval of 6 months. The readings were blind, with the tracings numbered randomly for the first reading and renumbered randomly for the second reading. The physicians, all experienced in interpreting ECGs from chagasic patients, followed printed instructions for reading the tracings. Reproducibility of the readings was evaluated using the kappa (k index for concordance. The results showed a high degree of interobserver concordance with respect to the diagnosis of normal vs. abnormal tracings (k = 0.66; SE 0.02. While the interpretations of some categories of ECG abnormalities were highly reproducible, others, especially those having a low prevalence, showed lower levels of concordance. Intraobserver concordance was uniformly higher than interobserver concordance. The findings of this study justify the use by specialists of the recording of readings method proposed for epidemiological studies on Chagas' disease, but warrant caution in the interpretation of some categories of electrocardiographic alterations.

Diagnostic electrocardiography in epidemiological studies of Chagas' disease: multicenter evaluation of a standardized method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio O. Lázzari

1998-11-01

Full Text Available An electrocardiographic recording method with an associated reading guide, designed for epidemiological studies on Chagas' disease, was tested to assess its diagnostic reproducibility. Six cardiologists from five countries each read 100 electrocardiographic (ECG tracings, including 30 from chronic chagasic patients, then reread them after an interval of 6 months. The readings were blind, with the tracings numbered randomly for the first reading and renumbered randomly for the second reading. The physicians, all experienced in interpreting ECGs from chagasic patients, followed printed instructions for reading the tracings. Reproducibility of the readings was evaluated using the kappa (k index for concordance. The results showed a high degree of interobserver concordance with respect to the diagnosis of normal vs. abnormal tracings (k = 0.66; SE 0.02. While the interpretations of some categories of ECG abnormalities were highly reproducible, others, especially those having a low prevalence, showed lower levels of concordance. Intraobserver concordance was uniformly higher than interobserver concordance. The findings of this study justify the use by specialists of the recording of readings method proposed for epidemiological studies on Chagas' disease, but warrant caution in the interpretation of some categories of electrocardiographic alterations.

[Important vector-borne infectious diseases among humans in Germany. Epidemiological aspects].

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, C; Faber, M; Hellenbrand, W; Wilking, H; Stark, K

2014-05-01

Vector-borne infections pathogenic to humans play an important role in Germany. The relevant zoonotic pathogens are either endemic throughout Germany (e.g. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu latu) or only in specific regions, e.g. tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus and hantavirus. They cause a substantial burden of disease. Prevention and control largely rely on public advice and the application of personal protective measures (e.g. TBE virus vaccination and protection against vectors). High quality surveillance and targeted epidemiological studies are fundamental for the evaluation of temporal and spatial risks of infection and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Aside from endemic pathogens, vector-borne infections acquired abroad, mostly transmitted by mosquitoes, have to be systematically and intensively monitored as well, to assess the risk of infection for German residents traveling abroad and to adequately evaluate the risk of autochthonous transmission. Related issues, such as invasive species of mosquitoes in Germany and climate change, have to be taken into consideration. Such pathogens include West Nile, dengue and chikungunya viruses, as well as malaria parasites (Plasmodium species). The article presents an overview of the epidemiological situation of selected relevant vector-borne infections in Germany.

Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

2014-01-01

A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

Malaria Disease Mapping in Malaysia based on Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) Model

Science.gov (United States)

Azah Samat, Nor; Mey, Liew Wan

2017-09-01

Disease mapping is the visual representation of the geographical distribution which give an overview info about the incidence of disease within a population through spatial epidemiology data. Based on the result of map, it helps in monitoring and planning resource needs at all levels of health care and designing appropriate interventions, tailored towards areas that deserve closer scrutiny or communities that lead to further investigations to identify important risk factors. Therefore, the choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important because production of disease risk map relies on the model used. This paper proposes Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model to estimate the relative risk for Malaria in Malaysia. The analysis involved using the number of Malaria cases that obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia. The outcomes of analysis are displayed through graph and map, including Malaria disease risk map that constructed according to the estimation of relative risk. The distribution of high and low risk areas of Malaria disease occurrences for all states in Malaysia can be identified in the risk map.

O conceito de espaço na epidemiologia das doenças infecciosas The concept of space in infectious disease epidemiology

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Luiz Jacintho da Silva

1997-10-01

Full Text Available Análise teórica da utilização do conceito de espaço na epidemiologia das doenças infecciosas. Faz-se uma breve retrospectiva do uso de diferentes conceituações de espaço e de suas implicações. Ênfase é dada à teoria dos focos naturais de Pavlovsky e às interações entre a epidemiologia e a geografia. O problema atual das infecções emergentes é visto como determinante da necessidade de se intensificarem as discussões sobre este conceito na epidemiologia das doenças infecciosas.This article analyzes how space is employed in infectious disease epidemiology, with a brief retrospective of the various definitions of space and its implications. Emphasis is given to the theory of natural foci of infectious diseases formulated by Pavlovsky and the interactions of epidemiology and geography.The current problem posed by emerging infections is seen as a determinant of the need for further discussion on the concept of space in infectious disease epidemiology.

Epidemiologic patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011.

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Yu, Weiwei; Mengersen, Kerrie; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S; Toloo, Ghasem Sam; Wang, Xiaoyu; Tong, Shilu

2014-07-01

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease that has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity, and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiologic patterns of RRV disease in Queensland, Australia, during January 2001-December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatio-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex, and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 persons, with a male:female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland, and the southeast areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on high-risk regions, particularly during summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV infection. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Epidemiology of dry eye disease in Africa: The sparse information, gaps and opportunities.

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Osae, A E; Gehlsen, U; Horstmann, J; Siebelmann, S; Stern, M E; Kumah, D B; Steven, P

2017-04-01

Dry eye disease (DED) is an increasingly significant clinical problem in developing countries and/or emerging economies. Existing studies on DED conducted in these areas have largely reported on associations between DED and infectious disease (trachoma) and malnutrition (hypovitaminosis A), but current trends of industrialization, urbanization, and modernization in these areas could result in a shift to other forms of DED. Herein, we review the epidemiology of DED in these geographic areas, highlighting potential causes and risk factors of DED while presenting information on diagnostic tools and algorithms and insight into some treatment modalities of DED that could prove useful to clinicians and investigators in these regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases in developing countries: new roles, new demands for economics and epidemiology.

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Rich, Karl M; Perry, Brian D

2011-09-01

Animal disease outbreaks pose significant threats to livestock sectors throughout the world, both from the standpoint of the economic impacts of the disease itself and the measures taken to mitigate the risk of disease introduction. These impacts are multidimensional and not always well understood, complicating effective policy response. In the developing world, livestock diseases have broader, more nuanced effects on markets, poverty, and livelihoods, given the diversity of uses of livestock and complexity of livestock value chains. In both settings, disease control strategies, particularly those informed by ex ante modeling platforms, often fail to recognize the constraints inherent among farmers, veterinary services, and other value chain actors. In short, context matters. Correspondingly, an important gap in the animal health economics literature is the explicit incorporation of behavior and incentives in impact analyses that highlight the interactions of disease with its socio-economic and institutional setting. In this paper, we examine new approaches and frameworks for the analysis of economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases. We propose greater utilization of "bottom-up" analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of value chain and information economics approaches in impact analyses and stressing the importance of improved integration between the epidemiology of disease and its relationships with economic behavior. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two different epidemiological scenarios of border disease in the populations of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra p. pyrenaica after the first disease outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Fernández-Sirera

Full Text Available Since 2001 several outbreaks of a new disease associated with Border disease virus (BDV infection have caused important declines in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica populations in the Pyrenees. The goal of this study was to analyze the post-outbreak BDV epidemiology in the first two areas affected by disease with the aim to establish if the infection has become endemic. We also investigated if BDV infected wild and domestic ruminants sharing habitat with chamois. Unexpectedly, we found different epidemiological scenarios in each population. Since the disease outbreaks, some chamois populations recuperated quickly, while others did not recover as expected. In chamois from the first areas, prevalence was high (73.47% and constant throughout the whole study period and did not differ between chamois born before and after the BDV outbreak; in all, BDV was detected by RT-PCR in six chamois. In the other areas, prevalence was lower (52.79% and decreased during the study period; as well, prevalence was significantly lower in chamois born after the disease outbreak. No BDV were detected in this population. A comparative virus neutralisation test performed with four BDV strains and one Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV strain showed that all the chamois had BDV-specific antibodies. Pestivirus antibodies were detected in all the rest of analyzed species, with low prevalence values in wild ruminants and moderate values in domestic ruminants. No viruses were detected in these species. These results confirm the hypothesis that outbreaks of BDV infection only affect the Pyrenean chamois, although other wild ruminants can occasionally be infected. In conclusion, two different scenarios have appeared since the first border disease outbreaks in Pyrenean chamois: on the one hand frequent BDV circulation with possible negative impact on population dynamics in some areas and on the other, lack of virus circulation and quick recovery of the chamois population.

Cancer Epidemiology Cohorts

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Cohort studies are fundamental for epidemiological research by helping researchers better understand the etiology of cancer and provide insights into the key determinants of this disease and its outcomes.

International biological engagement programs facilitate Newcastle disease epidemiological studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patti J. Miller

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Infections of poultry species with virulent strains of Newcastle disease virus (NDV cause Newcastle disease (ND, one of the most economically significant and devastating diseases for poultry producers worldwide. Biological engagement programs (BEP between the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL of the United States Department of Agriculture and laboratories from Russia, Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Indonesia collectively have produced a better understanding of the genetic diversity and evolution of the viruses responsible for ND, which is crucial for the control of the disease. The data from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine identified possible migratory routes for birds that may carry both virulent NDV (vNDV and NDV of low virulence into Europe. In addition, related NDV strains were isolated from wild birds in Ukraine and Nigeria, and from birds in continental USA, Alaska, Russia, and Japan, identifying wild birds as a possible mechanism of intercontinental spread of NDV of low virulence. More recently, the detection of new sub-genotypes of vNDV suggests that a new, fifth, panzootic of ND has already originated in Southeast Asia, extended to the Middle East, and is now entering into Eastern Europe. Despite expected challenges when multiple independent laboratories interact, many scientists from the collaborating countries have successfully been trained by SEPRL on molecular diagnostics, best laboratory practices, and critical biosecurity protocols, providing our partners the capacity to further train other employees and to identify locally the viruses that cause this OIE listed disease. These and other collaborations with partners in Mexico, Bulgaria, Israel, and Tanzania have allowed SEPRL scientists to engage in field studies, to elucidate more aspects of ND epidemiology in endemic countries, and to understand the challenges that the scientists and field veterinarians in these countries face on a daily basis. Finally, new viral

International Biological Engagement Programs Facilitate Newcastle Disease Epidemiological Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Patti J.; Dimitrov, Kiril M.; Williams-Coplin, Dawn; Peterson, Melanie P.; Pantin-Jackwood, Mary J.; Swayne, David E.; Suarez, David L.; Afonso, Claudio L.

2015-01-01

Infections of poultry species with virulent strains of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) cause Newcastle disease (ND), one of the most economically significant and devastating diseases for poultry producers worldwide. Biological engagement programs between the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) of the United States Department of Agriculture and laboratories from Russia, Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia collectively have produced a better understanding of the genetic diversity and evolution of the viruses responsible for ND, which is crucial for the control of the disease. The data from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine identified possible migratory routes for birds that may carry both virulent NDV (vNDV) and NDV of low virulence into Europe. In addition, related NDV strains were isolated from wild birds in Ukraine and Nigeria, and from birds in continental USA, Alaska, Russia, and Japan, identifying wild birds as a possible mechanism of intercontinental spread of NDV of low virulence. More recently, the detection of new sub-genotypes of vNDV suggests that a new, fifth, panzootic of ND has already originated in Southeast Asia, extended to the Middle East, and is now entering into Eastern Europe. Despite expected challenges when multiple independent laboratories interact, many scientists from the collaborating countries have successfully been trained by SEPRL on molecular diagnostics, best laboratory practices, and critical biosecurity protocols, providing our partners the capacity to further train other employes and to identify locally the viruses that cause this OIE listed disease. These and other collaborations with partners in Mexico, Bulgaria, Israel, and Tanzania have allowed SEPRL scientists to engage in field studies, to elucidate more aspects of ND epidemiology in endemic countries, and to understand the challenges that the scientists and field veterinarians in these countries face on a daily basis. Finally, new viral characterization tools

International Biological Engagement Programs Facilitate Newcastle Disease Epidemiological Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Patti J; Dimitrov, Kiril M; Williams-Coplin, Dawn; Peterson, Melanie P; Pantin-Jackwood, Mary J; Swayne, David E; Suarez, David L; Afonso, Claudio L

2015-01-01

Infections of poultry species with virulent strains of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) cause Newcastle disease (ND), one of the most economically significant and devastating diseases for poultry producers worldwide. Biological engagement programs between the Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory (SEPRL) of the United States Department of Agriculture and laboratories from Russia, Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia collectively have produced a better understanding of the genetic diversity and evolution of the viruses responsible for ND, which is crucial for the control of the disease. The data from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine identified possible migratory routes for birds that may carry both virulent NDV (vNDV) and NDV of low virulence into Europe. In addition, related NDV strains were isolated from wild birds in Ukraine and Nigeria, and from birds in continental USA, Alaska, Russia, and Japan, identifying wild birds as a possible mechanism of intercontinental spread of NDV of low virulence. More recently, the detection of new sub-genotypes of vNDV suggests that a new, fifth, panzootic of ND has already originated in Southeast Asia, extended to the Middle East, and is now entering into Eastern Europe. Despite expected challenges when multiple independent laboratories interact, many scientists from the collaborating countries have successfully been trained by SEPRL on molecular diagnostics, best laboratory practices, and critical biosecurity protocols, providing our partners the capacity to further train other employes and to identify locally the viruses that cause this OIE listed disease. These and other collaborations with partners in Mexico, Bulgaria, Israel, and Tanzania have allowed SEPRL scientists to engage in field studies, to elucidate more aspects of ND epidemiology in endemic countries, and to understand the challenges that the scientists and field veterinarians in these countries face on a daily basis. Finally, new viral characterization tools

Huntington's disease: current epidemiology and pharmacological management in UK primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Sackley, Catherine; Hoppitt, Thomas J; Calvert, Melanie; Gill, Paramjit; Eaton, Benjamin; Yao, Guiqing; Pall, Hardev

2011-01-01

Recent debate suggests Huntington's disease (HD) may be more prevalent than previously reported. In addition, relatively little is known about current disease management. This study aims to provide epidemiological data and describe the pharmacological management of HD in the United Kingdom. A primary care research database was accessed to identify incident and prevalent HD cases between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2008. Patients with Read codes denoting a definite diagnosis or possible diagnosis, and undiagnosed patients with a positive family history were identified. A subset of patients with a definite diagnosis and prescribed medication indicating symptom onset was also identified. Epidemiological data were estimated. Pharmacological prescriptions to HD patients from 2004 to 2008 were identified, and prescription frequencies were grouped according to the British National Formulary categories. HD incidence estimates ranged from 0.44 to 0.78 per 100,000 person-years, and HD prevalence ranged from 5.96 to 6.54 per 100,000 of the population. Forty-four percent of pharmacological prescriptions targeted the central nervous system. Nearly half of the HD patients were prescribed antidepressants, and over 40% were prescribed analgesics. Although prevalence estimates fell short of figures suggested in recent debate, it is feasible that the true prevalence may be much higher than previously reported. Pharmacological management appears to rely heavily on central nervous system drugs and nutrition support. Many of these drugs are prescribed to HD patients for reasons other than the medication's primary use. Further work is required to evaluate the impact of alternative management strategies, such as therapist intervention, counselling, and organisation support, on the patients' quality of life. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

About the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program

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Epidemiology is the scientific study of the causes and distribution of disease in populations. NCI-funded epidemiology research is conducted through research at institutions in the United States and internationally.

The European concerted action on air pollution epidemiology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ackermann-Liebrich, U. [Basel Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. for Social and Preventive Medicine

1995-12-31

The European Concerted Action on Air Pollution Epidemiology was started in 1990 with the aim of bringing together European researchers in the field and improving research through collaboration and by preparing documents which would help to this end and by organizing workshops. A further aim was to stimulate cooperative research. Air pollution epidemiology investigates human effects of community air pollution by epidemiological methods. Epidemiology in general investigates the distribution and determinants of health-related states and events in populations. Diseases in which air pollution may play a significant role are mainly diseases of the respiratory system, for example chronic non-specific lung disease and lung cancer. Most diseases caused by air pollution can also be caused by other factors. Air pollution epidemiology is therefore specific in the expo variable (community air pollution) rather than in the type of health effects being studied. Air pollution epidemiology is beset with some specially challenging difficulties: ubiquitous exposure and as a consequence limited heterogeneity in exposure, low relative risks, few or specific health end points, and strong confounding. Further on the exposure-effect relationship is complicated by assumptions inherent to different study designs which relate to the exposure duration necessary to produce a certain health effect. In reports and workshops the concerted action tries to propose strategies to deal with these problems. (author)

The European concerted action on air pollution epidemiology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ackermann-Liebrich, U [Basel Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. for Social and Preventive Medicine

1996-12-31

The European Concerted Action on Air Pollution Epidemiology was started in 1990 with the aim of bringing together European researchers in the field and improving research through collaboration and by preparing documents which would help to this end and by organizing workshops. A further aim was to stimulate cooperative research. Air pollution epidemiology investigates human effects of community air pollution by epidemiological methods. Epidemiology in general investigates the distribution and determinants of health-related states and events in populations. Diseases in which air pollution may play a significant role are mainly diseases of the respiratory system, for example chronic non-specific lung disease and lung cancer. Most diseases caused by air pollution can also be caused by other factors. Air pollution epidemiology is therefore specific in the expo variable (community air pollution) rather than in the type of health effects being studied. Air pollution epidemiology is beset with some specially challenging difficulties: ubiquitous exposure and as a consequence limited heterogeneity in exposure, low relative risks, few or specific health end points, and strong confounding. Further on the exposure-effect relationship is complicated by assumptions inherent to different study designs which relate to the exposure duration necessary to produce a certain health effect. In reports and workshops the concerted action tries to propose strategies to deal with these problems. (author)

A comparative analysis of the epidemiological impact and disease cost-savings of HPV vaccines in France

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Bresse, Xavier; Adam, Marjorie; Largeron, Nathalie; Roze, Stephane; Marty, Remi

2013-01-01

The aim was to compare the epidemiological and economic impact of 16/18 bivalent and 6/11/16/18 quadrivalent HPV vaccination in France, considering differences in licensed outcomes, protection against non-vaccine HPV types and prevention of HPV-6/11-related diseases. The differential impact of the two vaccines was evaluated using a published model adapted to the French setting. The target population was females aged 14–23 y and the time horizon was 100 y. A total of eight different scenarios compared vaccination impact in terms of reduction in HPV-16/18-associated carcinomas (cervical, vulvar, vaginal, anal, penile and head and neck), HPV-6/11-related genital warts and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and incremental reduction in cervical cancer due to potential cross-protection. Quadrivalent vaccine was associated with total discounted cost savings ranging from EUR 544–1,020 million vs. EUR 177–538 million with the bivalent vaccination (100-y time horizon). Genital wart prevention thanks to quadrivalent HPV vaccination accounted for EUR 306–380 million savings (37–56% of costs saved). In contrast, the maximal assumed cross-protection against cervical cancer resulted in EUR 13–33 million savings (4%). Prevention of vulvar, vaginal and anal cancers accounted for additional EUR 71–89 million savings (13%). In France, the quadrivalent HPV vaccination would result in significant incremental epidemiological and economic benefits vs. the bivalent vaccination, driven primarily by prevention of genital. The present analysis is the first in the French setting to consider the impact of HPV vaccination on all HPV diseases and non-vaccine types. PMID:23563511

Snippets from the past: the evolution of Wade Hampton Frost's epidemiology as viewed from the American Journal of Hygiene/Epidemiology.

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Morabia, Alfredo

2013-10-01

Wade Hampton Frost, who was a Professor of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University from 1919 to 1938, spurred the development of epidemiologic methods. His 6 publications in the American Journal of Hygiene, which later became the American Journal of Epidemiology, comprise a 1928 Cutter lecture on a theory of epidemics, a survey-based study of tonsillectomy and immunity to Corynebacterium diphtheriae (1931), 2 papers from a longitudinal study of the incidence of minor respiratory diseases (1933 and 1935), an attack rate ratio analysis of the decline of diphtheria in Baltimore (1936), and a 1936 lecture on the age, time, and cohort analysis of tuberculosis mortality. These 6 American Journal of Hygiene /American Journal of Epidemiology papers attest that Frost's personal evolution mirrored that of the emerging "early" epidemiology: The scope of epidemiology extended beyond the study of epidemics of acute infectious diseases, and rigorous comparative study designs and their associated quantitative methods came to light.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks andprevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serologyscreening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables.

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Pereira, Gilberto de Araujo; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Barbosa, Valdirene de Fátima; Ferreira-Silva, Márcia Maria; de Moraes-Souza, Helio

2012-01-01

The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.

Epidemiology and introduction to the clinical presentation of Wilson disease.

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Lo, Christine; Bandmann, Oliver

2017-01-01

Our understanding of the epidemiology of Wilson disease has steadily grown since Sternlieb and Scheinberg's first prevalence estimate of 5 per million individuals in 1968. Increasingly sophisticated genetic techniques have led to revised genetic prevalence estimates of 142 per million. Various population isolates exist where the prevalence of Wilson disease is higher still, the highest being 885 per million from within the mountainous region of Rucar in Romania. In Sardinia, where the prevalence of Wilson disease has been calculated at 370 per million births, six mutations account for around 85% of Wilson disease chromosomes identified. Significant variation in the patterns of presentation may however exist, even between individuals carrying the same mutations. At either extremes of presentation are an 8-month-old infant with abnormal liver function tests and individuals diagnosed in their eighth decade of life. Three main patterns of presentation have been recognized - hepatic, neurologic, and psychiatric - prompting their presentation to a diverse range of specialists. Deviations in the family history from the anticipated autosomal-recessive mode of inheritance, with apparent "pseudodominance" and mechanisms of inheritance that include uniparental isodisomy (the inheritance of both chromosomal copies from a single parent), may all further cloud the diagnosis. It can therefore take the efforts of an astute clinician with a high clinical index of suspicion to clinch the diagnosis of this eminently treatable condition. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelers' perception of mathematical modeling in epidemiology: a web-based survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilles Hejblum

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mathematical modeling in epidemiology (MME is being used increasingly. However, there are many uncertainties in terms of definitions, uses and quality features of MME. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To delineate the current status of these models, a 10-item questionnaire on MME was devised. Proposed via an anonymous internet-based survey, the questionnaire was completed by 189 scientists who had published in the domain of MME. A small minority (18% of respondents claimed to have in mind a concise definition of MME. Some techniques were identified by the researchers as characterizing MME (e.g. Markov models, while others-at the same level of sophistication in terms of mathematics-were not (e.g. Cox regression. The researchers' opinions were also contrasted about the potential applications of MME, perceived as highly relevant for providing insight into complex mechanisms and less relevant for identifying causal factors. The quality criteria were those of good science and were not related to the size and the nature of the public health problems addressed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study shows that perceptions on the nature, uses and quality criteria of MME are contrasted, even among the very community of published authors in this domain. Nevertheless, MME is an emerging discipline in epidemiology and this study underlines that it is associated with specific areas of application and methods. The development of this discipline is likely to deserve a framework providing recommendations and guidance at various steps of the studies, from design to report.

Retrospective study of epidemiological, clinicopathological and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Retrospective study of epidemiological, clinicopathological and biological profils of 62 colorectal cancers cases in Jijel provence (Algeria) ... Our results were often compatible with the available literature and may provide reliable and relevant data on this disease. Key words: Colorectal cancer; Epidemiology; Therapy; ...

Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

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Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

2017-12-01

Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

The African Field Epidemiology Network-Networking for effective field epidemiology capacity building and service delivery

Science.gov (United States)

Gitta, Sheba Nakacubo; Mukanga, David; Babirye, Rebecca; Dahlke, Melissa; Tshimanga, Mufuta; Nsubuga, Peter

2011-01-01

Networks are a catalyst for promoting common goals and objectives of their membership. Public Health networks in Africa are crucial, because of the severe resource limitations that nations face in dealing with priority public health problems. For a long time, networks have existed on the continent and globally, but many of these are disease-specific with a narrow scope. The African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET) is a public health network established in 2005 as a non-profit networking alliance of Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs (FELTPs) and Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETPs) in Africa. AFENET is dedicated to helping ministries of health in Africa build strong, effective and sustainable programs and capacity to improve public health systems by partnering with global public health experts. The Network's goal is to strengthen field epidemiology and public health laboratory capacity to contribute effectively to addressing epidemics and other major public health problems in Africa. AFENET currently networks 12 FELTPs and FETPs in sub-Saharan Africa with operations in 20 countries. AFENET has a unique tripartite working relationship with government technocrats from human health and animal sectors, academicians from partner universities, and development partners, presenting the Network with a distinct vantage point. Through the Network, African nations are making strides in strengthening their health systems. Members are able to: leverage resources to support field epidemiology and public health laboratory training and service delivery notably in the area of outbreak investigation and response as well as disease surveillance; by-pass government bureaucracies that often hinder and frustrate development partners; and consolidate efforts of different partners channelled through the FELTPs by networking graduates through alumni associations and calling on them to offer technical support in various public health capacities as the need arises

The burden and recent epidemiological changes of the main chronic liver diseases in a Greek referral tertiary centre.

Science.gov (United States)

Giannousis, Ioannis P; Papatheodoridis, George V; Deutsch, Melanie J; Manolakopoulos, Spilios G; Manesis, Emanuel K; Koskinas, John S; Archimandritis, Athanasios J

2010-02-01

To investigate the burden and recent epidemiological changes of the main chronic liver diseases in a Greek referral tertiary centre. We evaluated the main epidemiological characteristics of 1080 consecutive adult patients, seen at our outpatient liver clinic between 2002 and 2007, with chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and/or C (HCV) virus infection, alcoholic liver disease (ALD) or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Our patient population was divided into two groups in relation to the time of the first visit (period A: 2002-2004, period B: 2005-2007). Among our patient population, 86.1% had chronic HBV and/or HCV infection (chronic HCV alone: 44.9%), 9.2% NAFLD and 4.8% ALD. From period A to B, there was a decrease in chronic HBV cases (44.0 vs. 37.8%, P = 0.045) with immigrants being responsible for 35.5% of them and being more frequent in period B than A (39.7 vs. 30.5%, P = 0.046). In chronic hepatitis B, hepatitis B e antigen-positive patients, who were more frequent immigrants compared with hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients (65.5 vs. 29.5%, P = 0.001), increased from period A to B (8.0 vs. 17.6%, P = 0.045). Intravenous drug use was reported by 41.2% of HCV patients with its proportion increasing from period A to B (32.5 vs. 47.4%, P = 0.002). Decompensated cirrhosis was present in 67, 10, 11 and 3% of patients with ALD, HBV, HCV and NAFLD, respectively. At Greek tertiary centres, chronic viral hepatitis remains responsible for most chronic liver disease cases, but its epidemiology is changing owing to immigrants and intravenous drug users.

Epidemiologic Patterns of Ross River Virus Disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001–2011

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Yu, Weiwei; Mengersen, Kerrie; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S.; Toloo, Ghasem (Sam); Wang, Xiaoyu; Tong, Shilu

2014-01-01

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease that has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity, and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiologic patterns of RRV disease in Queensland, Australia, during January 2001–December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatio-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex, and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 persons, with a male:female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland, and the southeast areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on high-risk regions, particularly during summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV infection. PMID:24799374

Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

2013-01-01

An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

Epidemiology of allergic diseases of the respiratory passages in the Kazakh SSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moshkevich, V.S.

1985-01-01

Over a period of 20 years, the authors have been studying the distribution, aetiology and causes of increasing incidence of allergic respiratory diseases in various climatogeographic zones of the Kazakh SSR. Large groups of people living in towns and in the country were examined by various methods. The number of patients seeking advice in health service establishments because of allergic rhinitis and bronchial asthma was found to increase every year. A number of factors influencing the incidence of disease were pointed out, such as the character of diet, duration of the person's stay, vaccination against brucellosis, pollution of the atmosphere, local flora, climate, and other factors. Morbidity also depended on the methods of studying the epidemiology of respiratory allergoses. The obtained results will help health service authorities in taking specific measures to reduce morbidity from the mentioned pathological condition.

Modelling the epidemiological impact of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants.

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Amanda Ross

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Trials of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants (IPTi using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP have shown a positive, albeit variable, protective efficacy against clinical malaria episodes. The impact of IPTi in different epidemiological settings and over time is unknown and predictions are hampered by the lack of knowledge about how IPTi works. We investigated mechanisms proposed for the action of IPTi and made predictions of the likely impact on morbidity and mortality. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a comprehensive, individual-based, stochastic model of malaria epidemiology to simulate recently published trials of IPTi using SP with site-specific characteristics as inputs. This baseline model was then modified to represent hypotheses concerning the duration of action of SP, the temporal pattern of fevers caused by individual infections, potential benefits of avoiding fevers on immunity and the effect of sub-therapeutic levels of SP on parasite dynamics. The baseline model reproduced the pattern of results reasonably well. None of the models based on alternative hypotheses improved the fit between the model predictions and observed data. Predictions suggest that IPTi would have a beneficial effect across a range of transmission intensities. IPTi was predicted to avert a greater number of episodes where IPTi coverage was higher, the health system treatment coverage lower, and for drugs which were more efficacious and had longer prophylactic periods. The predicted cumulative benefits were proportionately slightly greater for severe malaria episodes and malaria-attributable mortality than for acute episodes in the settings modelled. Modest increased susceptibility was predicted between doses and following the last dose, but these were outweighed by the cumulative benefits. The impact on transmission intensity was negligible. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of trial results can be accounted for by differences between

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.

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Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2015-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the

Update on epidemiology and control of Foot and Mouth Disease - A menace to international trade and global animal enterprise

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P. M. Depa

Full Text Available Foot and mouth disease (FMD is one of the most economically and socially devastating disease affecting animal agriculture throughout the world. This review describes economic impact of disease outbreaks, an update of recent findings in epidemiology of FMD both at International and national level and control of this disease. The etiological agent (FMD virus is examined in detail at genetic and molecular characterization level and in terms of antigenic diversity. [Vet World 2012; 5(11.000: 694-704

Relevance of indirect transmission for wildlife disease surveillance

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Martin Lange

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Epidemiological models of infectious diseases are essential tools in support of risk assessment, surveillance design and contingency planning in public and animal health. Direct pathogen transmission from host to host is an essential process of each host-pathogen system and respective epidemiological modelling concepts. It is widely accepted that numerous diseases involve indirect transmission through pathogens shed by infectious hosts to their environment. However, epidemiological models largely do not represent pathogen persistence outside the host explicitly. We hypothesize that this simplification might bias management-related model predictions for disease agents that can persist outside their host for a certain time span. We adapted an individual-based, spatially explicit epidemiological model that can mimic both transmission processes. One version explicitly simulated indirect pathogen transmission through a contaminated environment. A second version simulated direct host-to-host transmission only. We aligned the model variants by the transmission potential per infectious host (i.e. basic reproductive number R0 and the spatial transmission kernel of the infection to allow unbiased comparison of predictions. The quantitative model results are provided for the example of surveillance plans for early detection of foot-and-mouth disease in wild boar, a social host.We applied systematic sampling strategies on the serological status of randomly selected host individuals in both models. We compared between the model variants the time to detection and the area affected prior to detection, measures that strongly influence mitigation costs. Moreover, the ideal sampling strategy to detect the infection in a given time frame was compared between both models.We found the simplified, direct transmission model to underestimate necessary sample size by up to one order of magnitude, but to overestimate the area put under control measures. Thus, the model

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

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Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

The Epidemiology of African Swine Fever in "Nonendemic" Regions of Zambia (1989-2015): Implications for Disease Prevention and Control.

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Simulundu, Edgar; Lubaba, Caesar H; van Heerden, Juanita; Kajihara, Masahiro; Mataa, Liywalii; Chambaro, Herman Moses; Sinkala, Yona; Munjita, Samuel Munalula; Munang'andu, Hetron Mweemba; Nalubamba, King Shimumbo; Samui, Kenny; Pandey, Girja Shanker; Takada, Ayato; Mweene, Aaron S

2017-08-23

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and deadly viral hemorrhagic disease of swine. In Zambia, ASF was first reported in 1912 in Eastern Province and is currently believed to be endemic in that province only. Strict quarantine measures implemented at the Luangwa River Bridge, the only surface outlet from Eastern Province, appeared to be successful in restricting the disease. However, in 1989, an outbreak occurred for the first time outside the endemic province. Sporadic outbreaks have since occurred almost throughout the country. These events have brought into acute focus our limited understanding of the epidemiology of ASF in Zambia. Here, we review the epidemiology of the disease in areas considered nonendemic from 1989 to 2015. Comprehensive sequence analysis conducted on genetic data of ASF viruses (ASFVs) detected in domestic pigs revealed that p72 genotypes I, II, VIII and XIV have been involved in causing ASF outbreaks in swine during the study period. With the exception of the 1989 outbreak, we found no concrete evidence of dissemination of ASFVs from Eastern Province to other parts of the country. Our analyses revealed a complex epidemiology of the disease with a possibility of sylvatic cycle involvement. Trade and/or movement of pigs and their products, both within and across international borders, appear to have been the major factor in ASFV dissemination. Since ASFVs with the potential to cause countrywide and possibly regional outbreaks, could emerge from "nonendemic regions", the current ASF control policy in Zambia requires a dramatic shift to ensure a more sustainable pig industry.

Epidemiology, management and outcomes of Graves' disease-real life data.

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Hussain, Y S; Hookham, J C; Allahabadia, A; Balasubramanian, S P

2017-06-01

Treatment options in Graves' disease are clearly defined, but management practices and the perceptions of success are varied. The outcomes of treatment in large consecutive cohorts of Graves' disease have not been well characterised. The study describes the epidemiology, management strategies and medium term outcomes following anti-thyroid drug treatment, radio-iodine ablation and surgery in Graves' disease. All patients (n = 659) who received treatment for a new diagnosis of Graves' disease in secondary care over a 5 year period were included with a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 42.9 (29-57.5) months. The age adjusted incidence of adult onset Graves' disease in Sheffield, UK was 24.8 per 100,000 per year. Excluding 35 patients lost to follow-up, 93.1% (n = 581) were controlled on anti-thyroid drug treatment. Of these, 73.6% went into remission following withdrawal of anti-thyroid drugs; 5.2% were still undergoing initial therapy; 13.3% lost control whilst on anti-thyroid drugs; and 7.9% went on to have either surgery or radio-iodine ablation whilst controlled on anti-thyroid drugs. Of the 428 patients who achieved remission, 36.7% relapsed. Of 144 patients who had radio-iodine ablation treatment, 5.6% relapsed and needed further treatment. Of 119 patients having surgery, 5.2% had long-term hypoparathyroidism and none had documented long-term recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy. In the follow-up, 39.9% of patients underwent surgery or radio-iodine ablation with little morbidity. Up to two-thirds of patients who achieved remission did not relapse. Data on effectiveness and risks of treatments for Graves' disease presented in this study will help clinicians and patients in decision making.

Epidemiological aspects of bovine trypanosomosis in an endemic focus of eastern Zambia: The role of trypanosome strain variability in disease pattern

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Justin Masumu

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Bovine trypanosomosis displays various epidemiological aspects in various areas. In some instances the disease has a high prevalence in animals with high impact on production whereas in other cases the disease has a low impact on production despite a high level of infection in animals. In addition epidemiological changes are frequently observed in various areas and are related to many factors including the vectors, the host, the parasites, the environment as well as the livestock management. However the implication of these factors in these changes is not fully elucidated. In eastern Zambia, factors predicting the establishment of severe infection in cattle are all present. However trypanosomosis occurring in cattle in this area has a low impact on livestock production. Several studies on the characterisation of trypanosome strains circulating in domestic and wild animals have been conducted in order to clarify the epidemiology of this disease in this area. These studies aimed at evaluating genetic and biological characteristics of these strains including their virulence profiles, their transmissibility by tsetse flies, their resistance to drugs and interference between different strains. In this review these findings are analysed in order to elucidate the implication of trypanosome strain variability in the distribution and the expression of this disease in the study area. The evolutionary trends of the situation occurring in this study area are also explained. Use of these findings is the context of disease control in the study area is further discussed.

Ebola virus disease outbreak; the role of field epidemiology training programme in the fight against the epidemic, Liberia, 2014.

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Lubogo, Mutaawe; Donewell, Bangure; Godbless, Lucas; Shabani, Sasita; Maeda, Justin; Temba, Herilinda; Malibiche, Theophil C; Berhanu, Naod

2015-01-01

The African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET) is a public health network established in 2005 as a non-profit networking alliance of Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs (FELTPs) and Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETPs) in Africa. AFENET is dedicated to supporting Ministries of Health in Africa build strong, effective and sustainable programs and capacity to improve public health systems by partnering with global public health experts. The Network's goal is to strengthen field epidemiology and public health laboratory capacity to contribute effectively to addressing epidemics and other major public health problems in Africa. The goal for the establishment of FETP and FELTP was and still is to produce highly competent multi-disciplinary public health professionals who would assume influential posts in the public health structures and tackle emerging and re-emerging communicable and non-communicable diseases. AFENET currently networks 12 FELTPs and FETPs in sub-Saharan Africa with operations in 20 countries. During the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa, African Union Support for the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa (ASEOWA) supported FETP graduates from Uganda, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Tanzania for the investigation and control of the EVD outbreak in Liberia. The graduates were posted in different counties in Liberia where they lead teams of other experts conduct EVD outbreak investigations, Infection Control and Prevention trainings among health workers and communities, Strengthening integrated disease surveillance, developing Standard Operating Procedures for infection control and case notification in the Liberian setting as well as building capacity of local surveillance officers' conduct outbreak investigation and contact tracing. The team was also responsible for EVD data management at the different Counties in Liberia. The FETP graduates have been instrumental in the earlier successes registered in various counties in Liberia

The effects of post-exposure smallpox vaccination on clinical disease presentation: addressing the data gaps between historical epidemiology and modern surrogate model data.

Science.gov (United States)

Keckler, M Shannon; Reynolds, Mary G; Damon, Inger K; Karem, Kevin L

2013-10-25

Decades after public health interventions - including pre- and post-exposure vaccination - were used to eradicate smallpox, zoonotic orthopoxvirus outbreaks and the potential threat of a release of variola virus remain public health concerns. Routine prophylactic smallpox vaccination of the public ceased worldwide in 1980, and the adverse event rate associated with the currently licensed live vaccinia virus vaccine makes reinstatement of policies recommending routine pre-exposure vaccination unlikely in the absence of an orthopoxvirus outbreak. Consequently, licensing of safer vaccines and therapeutics that can be used post-orthopoxvirus exposure is necessary to protect the global population from these threats. Variola virus is a solely human pathogen that does not naturally infect any other known animal species. Therefore, the use of surrogate viruses in animal models of orthopoxvirus infection is important for the development of novel vaccines and therapeutics. Major complications involved with the use of surrogate models include both the absence of a model that accurately mimics all aspects of human smallpox disease and a lack of reproducibility across model species. These complications limit our ability to model post-exposure vaccination with newer vaccines for application to human orthopoxvirus outbreaks. This review seeks to (1) summarize conclusions about the efficacy of post-exposure smallpox vaccination from historic epidemiological reports and modern animal studies; (2) identify data gaps in these studies; and (3) summarize the clinical features of orthopoxvirus-associated infections in various animal models to identify those models that are most useful for post-exposure vaccination studies. The ultimate purpose of this review is to provide observations and comments regarding available model systems and data gaps for use in improving post-exposure medical countermeasures against orthopoxviruses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of Molecular Pathology, Epidemiology, and Social Science for Global Precision Medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Nishi, Akihiro; Milner, Danny A; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Nishihara, Reiko; Tan, Andy S.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Ogino, Shuji

2015-01-01

Summary The precision medicine concept and the unique disease principle imply that each patient has unique pathogenic processes resulting from heterogeneous cellular genetic and epigenetic alterations, and interactions between cells (including immune cells) and exposures, including dietary, environmental, microbial, and lifestyle factors. As a core method field in population health science and medicine, epidemiology is a growing scientific discipline that can analyze disease risk factors, and develop statistical methodologies to maximize utilization of big data on populations and disease pathology. The evolving transdisciplinary field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) can advance biomedical and health research by linking exposures to molecular pathologic signatures, enhancing causal inference, and identifying potential biomarkers for clinical impact. The MPE approach can be applied to any diseases, although it has been most commonly used in neoplastic diseases (including breast, lung and colorectal cancers) because of availability of various molecular diagnostic tests. However, use of state-of-the-art genomic, epigenomic and other omic technologies and expensive drugs in modern healthcare systems increases racial, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities. To address this, we propose to integrate molecular pathology, epidemiology, and social science. Social epidemiology integrates the latter two fields. The integrative social MPE model can embrace sociology, economics and precision medicine, address global health disparities and inequalities, and elucidate biological effects of social environments, behaviors, and networks. We foresee advancements of molecular medicine, including molecular diagnostics, biomedical imaging, and targeted therapeutics, which should benefit individuals in a global population, by means of an interdisciplinary approach of integrative MPE and social health science. PMID:26636627

Integration of molecular pathology, epidemiology and social science for global precision medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishi, Akihiro; Milner, Danny A; Giovannucci, Edward L; Nishihara, Reiko; Tan, Andy S; Kawachi, Ichiro; Ogino, Shuji

2016-01-01

The precision medicine concept and the unique disease principle imply that each patient has unique pathogenic processes resulting from heterogeneous cellular genetic and epigenetic alterations and interactions between cells (including immune cells) and exposures, including dietary, environmental, microbial and lifestyle factors. As a core method field in population health science and medicine, epidemiology is a growing scientific discipline that can analyze disease risk factors and develop statistical methodologies to maximize utilization of big data on populations and disease pathology. The evolving transdisciplinary field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) can advance biomedical and health research by linking exposures to molecular pathologic signatures, enhancing causal inference and identifying potential biomarkers for clinical impact. The MPE approach can be applied to any diseases, although it has been most commonly used in neoplastic diseases (including breast, lung and colorectal cancers) because of availability of various molecular diagnostic tests. However, use of state-of-the-art genomic, epigenomic and other omic technologies and expensive drugs in modern healthcare systems increases racial, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities. To address this, we propose to integrate molecular pathology, epidemiology and social science. Social epidemiology integrates the latter two fields. The integrative social MPE model can embrace sociology, economics and precision medicine, address global health disparities and inequalities, and elucidate biological effects of social environments, behaviors and networks. We foresee advancements of molecular medicine, including molecular diagnostics, biomedical imaging and targeted therapeutics, which should benefit individuals in a global population, by means of an interdisciplinary approach of integrative MPE and social health science.

Human Environmental Disease Network: A computational model to assess toxicology of contaminants.

Science.gov (United States)

Taboureau, Olivier; Audouze, Karine

2017-01-01

During the past decades, many epidemiological, toxicological and biological studies have been performed to assess the role of environmental chemicals as potential toxicants associated with diverse human disorders. However, the relationships between diseases based on chemical exposure rarely have been studied by computational biology. We developed a human environmental disease network (EDN) to explore and suggest novel disease-disease and chemical-disease relationships. The presented scored EDN model is built upon the integration of systems biology and chemical toxicology using information on chemical contaminants and their disease relationships reported in the TDDB database. The resulting human EDN takes into consideration the level of evidence of the toxicant-disease relationships, allowing inclusion of some degrees of significance in the disease-disease associations. Such a network can be used to identify uncharacterized connections between diseases. Examples are discussed for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Additionally, this computational model allows confirmation of already known links between chemicals and diseases (e.g., between bisphenol A and behavioral disorders) and also reveals unexpected associations between chemicals and diseases (e.g., between chlordane and olfactory alteration), thus predicting which chemicals may be risk factors to human health. The proposed human EDN model allows exploration of common biological mechanisms of diseases associated with chemical exposure, helping us to gain insight into disease etiology and comorbidity. This computational approach is an alternative to animal testing supporting the 3R concept.

Sexual transmission of Lyme disease: challenging the tickborne disease paradigm.

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Stricker, Raphael B; Middelveen, Marianne J

2015-01-01

Lyme disease caused by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi has become a major worldwide epidemic. In this article, we explore the clinical, epidemiological and experimental evidence for sexual transmission of Lyme disease in animal models and humans. Although the likelihood of sexual transmission of the Lyme spirochete remains speculative, the possibility of Lyme disease transmission via intimate human contact merits further study.

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Epidemiology of gastroesophageal reflux disease: A general population-based study in Xi’an of Northwest China

OpenAIRE

Wang, Jin-Hai; Luo, Jin-Yan; Dong, Lei; Gong, Jun; Tong, Ming

2004-01-01

AIM: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common disorder in the Western population, but detailed population-based data in China are limited. The aim of this study was to understand the epidemiology of symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux (SGER) in adults of Xi’an, a northwestern city of China, and to explore the potential risk factors of GERD.

Epidemiology of diabetic foot disease and diabetes-related lower-extremity amputation in Australia: a systematic review protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

van Netten, Jaap J; Baba, Mendel; Lazzarini, Peter A

2017-05-18

Diabetic foot disease is associated with major morbidity, mortality, costs, and reduction of a person's quality of life. Investigating the epidemiology of diabetic foot disease is the backbone of diabetic foot research and clinical practice, yet the full burden of diabetic foot disease in Australia is unknown. This study aims to describe the protocol for a systematic review of the epidemiology of diabetic foot disease and diabetes-related lower-extremity amputation in Australia. The systematic review will be performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses guidelines. PubMed and EMBASE will be searched for publications in any language and without restrictions to date. Two independent investigators will screen publications for eligibility, with publications reporting Australian population-based incidence or prevalence of diabetic foot disease or diabetes-related lower-extremity amputation to be included. Additionally, a forward literature search will be performed in Google Scholar, and a grey literature search will be performed to identify government publications. Quality assessment will be performed using customised checklists. The summary statistic used for each study will be an incidence or prevalence proportion of diabetic foot disease or diabetes-related lower-extremity amputation. The standard error for each proportion will be calculated. A meta-analysis will be performed when three or more publications of adequate quality, reporting on similar outcomes and in similar populations, are identified. The results of this systematic review can be used to adequately inform stakeholders in the field of diabetic foot disease on the extent of the problem in incidence and prevalence of diabetic foot disease in Australia, and to help guide appropriate use of resources to reduce the burden of this disease. PROSPERO CRD42016050740.

The Emergence and Epidemiology of Haff Disease in China

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Thomas Y. K. Chan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Haff disease is a rare syndrome of unexplained myalgia and rhabdomyolysis occurring within 24 h of consumption of certain types of cooked freshwater fish or crustacean. It is caused by a yet unidentified heat-stable toxin. In the present review of published case studies and official press releases, the main objective is to report the emergence and epidemiology of Haff disease in China. Haff disease first occurred in Beijing in 2000 and in Lianzhou and Liannan, Guangdong Province in 2009. Subsequent outbreaks mostly occurred in the Jiangsu Province—Nanjing, Yangzhou, Huai’an, and Yancheng. Isolated outbreaks occurred in other cities since 2010—Shijiazhuang, Yueyang, Shanghai, Wuhu, Baoding, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong (imported cases from Shenzhen. Outbreaks occurred predominately in the summer. Crayfish accounted for almost all the outbreaks. Two large outbreaks occurred in Lianzhou and Liannan in 2009 (n = 54 after eating pomfrets and in Nanjing in 2010 (n = 42 after eating crayfish. Other reports or outbreaks involved only 1–9 subjects (median 2 subjects. Variability in individual susceptibility and attack rates were noted, with many subjects remaining asymptomatic despite sharing the same seafood meal as the index cases. Adults were predominately involved. Symptoms occurred within 3–20 h of seafood ingestion, including myalgia, weakness, and, less frequently, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and diarrhea. Myalgia and muscle weakness should normally subside within 2–3 days. Serum creatine phosphokinase became normal within 5–6 days. Abnormal renal function was uncommon. Serious complications (renal failure, multi-organ failure, and prolonged myopathy and death were rare. In any subjects with unexplained myalgia and rhabdomyolysis, seafood consumption should be included in the history. All suspected cases of Haff disease, including milder presentations, should be reported to public health authorities.

Analysis of the epidemiological dynamics during the 1982-1983 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark based on molecular high-resolution strain identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Laurids Siig; Normann, Preben; Thykier-Nielsen, Søren

2005-01-01

An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causing a total of 23 cases in 1982-1983, primarily on the island of Funen, Denmark, was subjected to molecular epidemiological investigations. In an attempt to exploit the quasi-species nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus strains for molecular high......-resolution strain identification in order to analyse the dynamics of this epidemic, full-length VP1 coding regions were sequenced for 17 isolates collected at different farms during the epidemic. The sequence information together with epidemiological information gathered during the epidemic suggests......, and the prerequisite of co- or superinfection of animals with variant strains in turn implies that they have a common source or epidemiologically related sources originating from an area with endemic FMD....

Bacterial meningitis: epidemiology, herd protection, clinical characteristics, and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijlsma, M.W.

2016-01-01

This thesis studied the epidemiology of community-acquired bacterial meningitis after the nationwide implementation of paediatric conjugate vaccines, as well as the long-term epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease and neonatal group B streptococcal disease in the Netherlands. Furthermore,

Epidemiology and the control of disease in China, with emphasis on the Chinese Biobank Study.

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Li, L; Guo, Y; Chen, Z; Chen, J; Peto, R

2012-03-01

Similar to many other developing countries, China is facing a double burden of disease as a result of epidemiological transition. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a major challenge, having an adverse effect on the health of the Chinese population and increasing the economic burden of health care. In today's era of evidence-based medicine and decision making, China, as a developing country, has a lack of local scientific evidence which will affect the effectiveness of NCD prevention and control. As such, and on the basis of decades of cooperation and trust with the University of Oxford, the Chinese Biobank Study [Kadoorie Study of Chronic Disease in China (KSCDC)] was commenced in 2004. KSCDC, an international prospective project, aims to establish the basis of a blood-based health database, using genetic, environmental and lifestyle aspects to investigate and understand the causes, risk factors, pathogenesis, prevalence patterns and trends of major chronic diseases in China (such as stroke, coronary heart disease, cancer, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease etc.). This study has a duration of 15-20 years, and will provide scientific evidence for strategic planning of NCD prevention and control, and development of new treatment and intervention approaches. In total, approximately 510,000 adults aged 30-79 years have been recruited from the general population in 10 geographically defined regions (five rural and five urban) of China, with differing disease profiles and differing risk exposures. Extensive data collection has been undertaken with questionnaires, physical measurements, and collection and storage of blood samples. KSCDC is a multi-factor, multi-disease, multi-disciplinary large-scale chronic disease epidemiological study, and is also one of the largest long-term blood-based population cohort studies ever conducted in the world. It is worth mentioning that all gene specimens are kept in China, and all associated

Training Systems Modelers through the Development of a Multi-scale Chagas Disease Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hanley, J.; Stevens-Goodnight, S.; Kulkarni, S.; Bustamante, D.; Fytilis, N.; Goff, P.; Monroy, C.; Morrissey, L. A.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Dorn, P.; Lucero, D.; Rios, J.; Rizzo, D. M.

2012-12-01

The goal of our NSF-sponsored Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences grant is to create a multidisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit models of vector-borne disease risk using Chagas disease as our model. Chagas disease is a parasitic disease endemic to Latin America that afflicts an estimated 10 million people. The causative agent (Trypanosoma cruzi) is most commonly transmitted to humans by blood feeding triatomine insect vectors. Our objectives are: (1) advance knowledge on the multiple interacting factors affecting the transmission of Chagas disease, and (2) provide next generation genomic and spatial analysis tools applicable to the study of other vector-borne diseases worldwide. This funding is a collaborative effort between the RSENR (UVM), the School of Engineering (UVM), the Department of Biology (UVM), the Department of Biological Sciences (Loyola (New Orleans)) and the Laboratory of Applied Entomology and Parasitology (Universidad de San Carlos). Throughout this five-year study, multi-educational groups (i.e., high school, undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral) will be trained in systems modeling. This systems approach challenges students to incorporate environmental, social, and economic as well as technical aspects and enables modelers to simulate and visualize topics that would either be too expensive, complex or difficult to study directly (Yasar and Landau 2003). We launch this research by developing a set of multi-scale, epidemiological models of Chagas disease risk using STELLA® software v.9.1.3 (isee systems, inc., Lebanon, NH). We use this particular system dynamics software as a starting point because of its simple graphical user interface (e.g., behavior-over-time graphs, stock/flow diagrams, and causal loops). To date, high school and undergraduate students have created a set of multi-scale (i.e., homestead, village, and regional) disease models. Modeling the system at multiple spatial scales forces recognition that

Alzheimer disease: epidemiology, diagnostic criteria, risk factors and biomarkers.

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Reitz, Christiane; Mayeux, Richard

2014-04-15

The global prevalence of dementia is as high as 24 million, and has been predicted to quadruple by the year 2050. In the US alone, Alzheimer disease (AD) - the most frequent cause of dementia characterized by a progressive decline in cognitive function in particular the memory domain - causes estimated health-care costs of $ 172 billion per year. Key neuropathological hallmarks of the AD brain are diffuse and neuritic extracellular amyloid plaques - often surrounded by dystrophic neurites - and intracellular neurofibrillary tangles. These pathological changes are frequently accompanied by reactive microgliosis and loss of neurons, white matter and synapses. The etiological mechanisms underlying these neuropathological changes remain unclear, but are probably caused by both environmental and genetic factors. In this review article, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of AD, review the biomarkers that may be used for risk assessment and in diagnosis, and give suggestions for future research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.

Science.gov (United States)

Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien

2018-02-01

In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Update on Hidradenitis Suppurativa (Part I): Epidemiology, Clinical Aspects, and Definition of Disease Severity.

Science.gov (United States)

Martorell, A; García-Martínez, F J; Jiménez-Gallo, D; Pascual, J C; Pereyra-Rodriguez, J; Salgado, L; Vilarrasa, E

2015-11-01

Hidradenitis suppurativa is a chronic inflammatory disorder that has attracted increasing attention in recent years due to underestimations of prevalence and the considerable impact of the condition on interpersonal relationships, physical appearance, self-esteem, and body image. Although hidradenitis suppurative has a significant psychological impact on patients and can even cause physical limitations when thick scarring results in limb mobility limitation, until very recently little evidence was available relating to its epidemiology, etiology, or pathogenesis. In this review, we highlight the latest advances in our understanding of the epidemiological and clinical aspects of hidradenitis suppurativa. We will also look at the different classification systems for hidradenitis suppurativa and discuss the emergence of skin ultrasound as a promising technique for monitoring the course of this chronic inflammatory disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Nutritional Epidemiology Data in the Presence of Measurement Error

KAUST Repository

Sinha, Samiran

2009-08-10

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian method for handling measurement error in nutritional epidemiological data. Our goal is to estimate nonparametrically the form of association between a disease and exposure variable while the true values of the exposure are never observed. Motivated by nutritional epidemiological data, we consider the setting where a surrogate covariate is recorded in the primary data, and a calibration data set contains information on the surrogate variable and repeated measurements of an unbiased instrumental variable of the true exposure. We develop a flexible Bayesian method where not only is the relationship between the disease and exposure variable treated semiparametrically, but also the relationship between the surrogate and the true exposure is modeled semiparametrically. The two nonparametric functions are modeled simultaneously via B-splines. In addition, we model the distribution of the exposure variable as a Dirichlet process mixture of normal distributions, thus making its modeling essentially nonparametric and placing this work into the context of functional measurement error modeling. We apply our method to the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study and examine its performance in a simulation study.

An animated depiction of major depression epidemiology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patten Scott B

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiologic estimates are now available for a variety of parameters related to major depression epidemiology (incidence, prevalence, etc.. These estimates are potentially useful for policy and planning purposes, but it is first necessary that they be synthesized into a coherent picture of the epidemiology of the condition. Several attempts to do so have been made using mathematical modeling procedures. However, this information is not easy to communicate to users of epidemiological data (clinicians, administrators, policy makers. Methods In this study, up-to-date data on major depression epidemiology were integrated using a discrete event simulation model. The mathematical model was animated in Virtual Reality Modeling Language (VRML to create a visual, rather than mathematical, depiction of the epidemiology. Results Consistent with existing literature, the model highlights potential advantages of population health strategies that emphasize access to effective long-term treatment. The paper contains a web-link to the animation. Conclusion Visual animation of epidemiological results may be an effective knowledge translation tool. In clinical practice, such animations could potentially assist with patient education and enhanced long-term compliance.

An animated depiction of major depression epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Patten, Scott B

2007-06-08

Epidemiologic estimates are now available for a variety of parameters related to major depression epidemiology (incidence, prevalence, etc.). These estimates are potentially useful for policy and planning purposes, but it is first necessary that they be synthesized into a coherent picture of the epidemiology of the condition. Several attempts to do so have been made using mathematical modeling procedures. However, this information is not easy to communicate to users of epidemiological data (clinicians, administrators, policy makers). In this study, up-to-date data on major depression epidemiology were integrated using a discrete event simulation model. The mathematical model was animated in Virtual Reality Modeling Language (VRML) to create a visual, rather than mathematical, depiction of the epidemiology. Consistent with existing literature, the model highlights potential advantages of population health strategies that emphasize access to effective long-term treatment. The paper contains a web-link to the animation. Visual animation of epidemiological results may be an effective knowledge translation tool. In clinical practice, such animations could potentially assist with patient education and enhanced long-term compliance.

Livestock associated epidemiological information profiling in New Sandwip Island (Jahajerchar of the Meghna estuary, Noakhali using participatory disease searching tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SK Shaheenur Islam

2017-09-01

Conclusion: This place is potential for sheep and buffalo raising rather than cattle. The study has validated the significance of accepting participatory disease searching tool in order to capture voluntarily submitted epidemiological data towards establishing a cost effective, unique national disease surveillance system in Bangladesh. [J Adv Vet Anim Res 2017; 4(3.000: 267-273

Mathematical models for therapeutic approaches to control HIV disease transmission

CERN Document Server

Roy, Priti Kumar

2015-01-01

The book discusses different therapeutic approaches based on different mathematical models to control the HIV/AIDS disease transmission. It uses clinical data, collected from different cited sources, to formulate the deterministic as well as stochastic mathematical models of HIV/AIDS. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic and stochastic points of view, to optimal control strategy with perfect drug adherence and also tries to seek viewpoints of the same issue from different angles with various mathematical models to computer simulations. The book presents essential methods and techniques for students who are interested in designing epidemiological models on HIV/AIDS. It also guides research scientists, working in the periphery of mathematical modeling, and helps them to explore a hypothetical method by examining its consequences in the form of a mathematical modelling and making some scientific predictions. The model equations, mathematical analysis and several numerical simulations that are...

Herd-level interpretation of test results for epidemiologic studies of animal diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jette; Gardner, Ian A.

2000-01-01

Correct classification of the true status of herds is an important component of epidemiologic studies and animal disease-control programs. We review theoretical aspects of herd-level testing through consideration of test performance (herd-level sensitivity, specificity and predictive values......), the factors affecting these estimates, and available software for calculations. We present new aspects and considerations concerning the effect of precision and bias in estimation of individual-test performance on herd-test performance and suggest methods (pooled testing, targeted sampling of subpopulations...... with higher prevalence, and use of combinations of tests) to improve herd-level sensitivity when the expected within-herd prevalence is low....

Epidemiology and Anthropology: an integrated approach dealing with bio-socio-cultural aspects as strategy for the control of endemic diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constança Simões Barbosa

1998-01-01

Full Text Available The control of endemic diseases has not attained the desired level of effectiveness in spite of the use of modern efficient thecnologies. The classic interventionist approach for the control of schistosomiasis is centered on systemic control of the snail hosts combined to large scale medical treatment and is usually carried out without social preocupation due to the assisted communities. It is easy to understand the interest and the ethical compromise of public health research while producing studies in which the biological and social determinants as well as the cultural components should be considered and also encompass the historical dimensions and symbolic representations. In face of the recent political decision in favor of decentralizations of health administration to municipal level, we suggest, in the present paper, an integrated approach for the epidemiological diagnosis of an endemic situation at local level. Theoretical and methodological aspects from both, epidemiology and anthropology are discussed. Epidemiological methods can be used to detect the dependent variables (those related to the human infection and the independent variables (demographic, economic, sanitary and social. Another methodological approach of anthropological /etnographic nature can be conducted in order to make an articulation of the knowledge on the various dimensions or determinant levels of the disease. Mutual comprehension, between researchers and the people under investigation, on the dynamic transmission process would be relevant for a joint construction, at local level, of programmed actions for the control of endemic diseases. This would extend reflections on the health/disease process as a whole.

A comparison of estimated glomerular filtration rates using Cockcroft-Gault and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimating equations in HIV infection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mocroft, A; Nielsen, Lene Ryom; Reiss, P

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)- or Cockcroft-Gault (CG)-based estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) performs better in the cohort setting for predicting moderate/advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end...

Development of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model for Type 1 Diabetes: The Pittsburgh CHD in Type 1 Diabetes Risk Mode

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zgibor, J.C.; Ruppert, K.; Orchard, T.J.; Soedamah-Muthu, S.S.; Fuller, J.H.; Chaturvedi, N.; Roberts, M.S.

2010-01-01

Aim - To create a coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction model specific to type 1 diabetes. Methods - Development of the model used data from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study (EDC). EDC subjects had type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1950 and 1980, received their

The role of epigenetics in genetic and environmental epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Ladd-Acosta, Christine; Fallin, M Daniele

2016-02-01

Epidemiology is the branch of science that investigates the causes and distribution of disease in populations in order to provide preventative measures and promote human health. The fields of genetic and environmental epidemiology primarily seek to identify genetic and environmental risk factors for disease, respectively. Epigenetics is emerging as an important piece of molecular data to include in these studies because it can provide mechanistic insights into genetic and environmental risk factors for disease, identify potential intervention targets, provide biomarkers of exposure, illuminate gene-environment interactions and help localize disease-relevant genomic regions. Here, we describe the importance of including epigenetics in genetic and environmental epidemiology studies, provide a conceptual framework when considering epigenetic data in population-based studies and touch upon the many challenges that lie ahead.

Child and Adolescent Mortality Across Malaysia's Epidemiological Transition: A Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data.

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Abdul-Razak, Suraya; Azzopardi, Peter S; Patton, George C; Mokdad, Ali H; Sawyer, Susan M

2017-10-01

A rapid epidemiological transition in developing countries in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by major shifts in the health status of children and adolescents. In this article, mortality estimates in Malaysian children and adolescents from 1990 to 2013 are used to illustrate these changes. All-cause and cause-specific mortality estimates were obtained from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study. Data were extracted from 1990 to 2013 for the developmental age range from 1 to 24 years, for both sexes. Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality for the major epidemiological causes were estimated. From 1990 to 2013, all-cause mortality decreased in all age groups. Reduction of all-cause mortality was greatest in 1- to 4-year-olds (2.4% per year reduction) and least in 20- to 24-year-olds (.9% per year reduction). Accordingly, in 2013, all-cause mortality was highest in 20- to 24-year-old males (129 per 100,000 per year). In 1990, the principal cause of death for 1- to 9-year boys and girls was vaccine preventable diseases. By 2013, neoplasms had become the major cause of death in 1-9 year olds of both sexes. The major cause of death in 10- to 24-year-old females was typhoid in 1990 and neoplasms in 2013, whereas the major cause of death in 10- to 24-year-old males remained road traffic injuries. The reduction in mortality across the epidemiological transition in Malaysia has been much less pronounced for adolescents than younger children. The contribution of injuries and noncommunicable diseases to adolescent mortality suggests where public health strategies should focus. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emerging vector-borne zoonoses: eco-epidemiology and public health implications in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhiman, Ramesh C

2014-01-01

The diseases originating from animals or associated with man and animals are remerging and have resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality. The present review highlights the re-emergence of emerging mainly zoonotic diseases like chikungunya, scrub typhus, and extension of spatial distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis from western Rajasthan to Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, and Haryana states; West Nile virus to Assam, and non-endemic areas of Japanese encephalitis (JE) like Maharashtra and JE to Delhi; Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever making inroads in Ahmedabad; and reporting fifth parasite of human malaria with possibility of zoonosis have been highlighted, which necessitates further studies for prevention and control. Emphasis has been given on understanding the ecology of reservoir hosts of pathogen, micro niche of vector species, climatic, socioeconomic risk factors, etc. Development of facilities for diagnosis of virus from insects, reservoirs, and human beings (like BSL4, which has been established in NIV, Pune), awareness about symptoms of new emerging viral and other zoonotic diseases, differential diagnosis, risk factors (climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic) and mapping of disease-specific vulnerable areas, and mathematical modeling for projecting epidemiological scenario is needed for preparedness of public health institutes. It is high time to understand the ecological link of zoonotic or anthroponotic diseases for updated risk maps and epidemiological knowledge for effective preventive and control measures. The public health stakeholders in India as well as in Southeast Asia should emphasize on understanding the eco-epidemiology of the discussed zoonotic diseases for taking preventive actions.

Epidemiological causality.

Science.gov (United States)

Morabia, Alfredo

2005-01-01

Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

Epidemiology of whooping cough & typing of Bordetella pertussis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hegerle, Nicolas; Guiso, Nicole

2013-11-01

Bordetella pertussis is a Gram-negative human-restricted bacterium that evolved from the broad-range mammalian pathogen, Bordetella bronchiseptica. It causes whooping cough or pertussis in humans, which is the most prevalent vaccine-preventable disease worldwide. The introduction of the pertussis whole-cell vaccination for young children, followed by the introduction of the pertussis acellular vaccination (along with booster vaccination) for older age groups, has affected the bacterial population and epidemiology of the disease. B. pertussis is relatively monomorphic worldwide, but nevertheless, different countries are facing different epidemiological evolutions of the disease. Although it is tempting to link vaccine-driven phenotypic and genotypic evolution of the bacterium to epidemiology, many other factors should be considered and surveillance needs to continue, in addition to studies investigating the impact of current clinical isolates on vaccine efficacy.

A Systematic Bayesian Integration of Epidemiological and Genetic Data

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Lau, Max S. Y.; Marion, Glenn; Streftaris, George; Gibson, Gavin

2015-01-01

Genetic sequence data on pathogens have great potential to inform inference of their transmission dynamics ultimately leading to better disease control. Where genetic change and disease transmission occur on comparable timescales additional information can be inferred via the joint analysis of such genetic sequence data and epidemiological observations based on clinical symptoms and diagnostic tests. Although recently introduced approaches represent substantial progress, for computational reasons they approximate genuine joint inference of disease dynamics and genetic change in the pathogen population, capturing partially the joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics. Improved methods are needed to fully integrate such genetic data with epidemiological observations, for achieving a more robust inference of the transmission tree and other key epidemiological parameters such as latent periods. Here, building on current literature, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed that infers simultaneously and explicitly the transmission tree and unobserved transmitted pathogen sequences. Our framework facilitates the use of realistic likelihood functions and enables systematic and genuine joint inference of the epidemiological-evolutionary process from partially observed outbreaks. Using simulated data it is shown that this approach is able to infer accurately joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics, even when pathogen sequences and epidemiological data are incomplete, and when sequences are available for only a fraction of exposures. These results also characterise and quantify the value of incomplete and partial sequence data, which has important implications for sampling design, and demonstrate the abilities of the introduced method to identify multiple clusters within an outbreak. The framework is used to analyse an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, enhancing current understanding of its transmission dynamics and evolutionary process. PMID:26599399

Developing Livestock Facility Type Information from USDA Agricultural Census Data for Use in Epidemiological and Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melius, C; Robertson, A; Hullinger, P

2006-10-24

The epidemiological and economic modeling of livestock diseases requires knowing the size, location, and operational type of each livestock facility within the US. At the present time, the only national database of livestock facilities that is available to the general public is the USDA's 2002 Agricultural Census data, published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, herein referred to as the 'NASS data.' The NASS data provides facility data at the county level for various livestock types (i.e., beef cows, milk cows, cattle on feed, other cattle, total hogs and pigs, sheep and lambs, milk goats, and angora goats). However, the number and sizes of facilities for the various livestock types are not independent since some facilities have more than one type of livestock, and some livestock are of more than one type (e.g., 'other cattle' that are being fed for slaughter are also 'cattle on feed'). In addition, any data tabulated by NASS that could identify numbers of animals or other data reported by an individual respondent is suppressed by NASS and coded with a 'D.'. To be useful for epidemiological and economic modeling, the NASS data must be converted into a unique set of facility types (farms having similar operational characteristics). The unique set must not double count facilities or animals. At the same time, it must account for all the animals, including those for which the data has been suppressed. Therefore, several data processing steps are required to work back from the published NASS data to obtain a consistent database for individual livestock operations. This technical report documents data processing steps that were used to convert the NASS data into a national livestock facility database with twenty-eight facility types. The process involves two major steps. The first step defines the rules used to estimate the data that is suppressed within the NASS database. The second step converts the NASS

[Endocrine disruptors : Evidence from epidemiological studies necessitates a critical review of model systems].

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, M; Gebauer, S; Nüchter, M; Baber, R; Ried, J; von Bergen, M; Kiess, W

2017-06-01

Endocrine disruptive chemicals (EDCs) cause adverse health effects through interaction with endocrine systems. They are classified by chemical structure, effects on specific endocrine systems, bioaccumulation, persistence in the environment, or clinically observable effects. For research of the complex mechanisms of action in the human body, only in vitro model systems have so far been available, that have insufficient high-throughput capacity, which makes risk evaluation more difficult. In addition, in industrial nations, living people are often exposed to mixtures of substances, with various effects. The clinical importance of epigenetic changes caused by the action of EDCs during vulnerable phases of development is currently unclear. Epidemiological studies are criticized because reproducibility is not always guaranteed. Nevertheless, they remain the method of choice for the development and analysis of suitable model systems. Positive associations, in spite of sometimes conflicting results, are key in the selection of factors that can then be analysed in model systems in an unbiased way. This article depicts the mainly positive epidemiological findings for EDC-caused effects in the fields of growth and metabolism, neurocognitive development and sexual development and reproduction. As a result, there is a need for closer linkage between epidemiological studies and mechanistic research into model systems, especially focusing on the interaction of different EDCs and the consequences of prenatal and early life exposure.

Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Schley, David; Whittle, Sophie; Taylor, Michael; Kiss, Istvan Zoltan

2012-09-15

Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution. Individual based network models are considered together with one- and two-class compartmental models, for which the final epidemic size is calculated as a function of the probability of disease transmission occurring during a given physical contact between two individuals. For numerical results the special cases of a viral disease with a fast recovery rate (foot-and-mouth disease) and a bacterial disease with a slow recovery rate (brucellosis) amongst sheep are considered. Quantitative results from observational studies of physical contact amongst domestic sheep are applied and results from the differently structured flocks (ewes with newborn lambs, ewes with nearly weaned lambs and ewes only) compared. These indicate that the breeding cycle leads to significant changes in the expected basic reproduction ratio of diseases. The observed heterogeneity of contacts amongst animals is best captured by full network simulations, although simple compartmental models describe the key features of an outbreak but, as expected, often overestimate the speed of an outbreak. Here the weights of contacts are heterogeneous, with many low weight links. However, due to the well-connected nature of the networks, this has little effect and differences between models remain small. These results indicate that simple compartmental models can be a useful tool for modelling real-world flocks; their applicability will be greater still for more homogeneously mixed livestock, which could be promoted by higher intensity farming practices. Copyright © 2012

Update on oral Chagas disease outbreaks in Venezuela: epidemiological, clinical and diagnostic approaches

Science.gov (United States)

de Noya, Belkisyolé Alarcón; Díaz-Bello, Zoraida; Colmenares, Cecilia; Ruiz-Guevara, Raiza; Mauriello, Luciano; Muñoz-Calderón, Arturo; Noya, Oscar

2015-01-01

Orally transmitted Chagas disease has become a matter of concern due to outbreaks reported in four Latin American countries. Although several mechanisms for orally transmitted Chagas disease transmission have been proposed, food and beverages contaminated with whole infected triatomines or their faeces, which contain metacyclic trypomastigotes of Trypanosoma cruzi, seems to be the primary vehicle. In 2007, the first recognised outbreak of orally transmitted Chagas disease occurred in Venezuela and largest recorded outbreak at that time. Since then, 10 outbreaks (four in Caracas) with 249 cases (73.5% children) and 4% mortality have occurred. The absence of contact with the vector and of traditional cutaneous and Romana’s signs, together with a florid spectrum of clinical manifestations during the acute phase, confuse the diagnosis of orally transmitted Chagas disease with other infectious diseases. The simultaneous detection of IgG and IgM by ELISA and the search for parasites in all individuals at risk have been valuable diagnostic tools for detecting acute cases. Follow-up studies regarding the microepidemics primarily affecting children has resulted in 70% infection persistence six years after anti-parasitic treatment. Panstrongylus geniculatus has been the incriminating vector in most cases. As a food-borne disease, this entity requires epidemiological, clinical, diagnostic and therapeutic approaches that differ from those approaches used for traditional direct or cutaneous vector transmission. PMID:25946155

Epidemiological models for the spread of anti-malarial resistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antia R

2003-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of drug resistance is making malaria control increasingly difficult. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of drug sensitive and resistant strains can be a useful tool to help to understand the factors that influence the spread of drug resistance, and they can therefore help in the design of rational strategies for the control of drug resistance. Methods We present an epidemiological framework to investigate the spread of anti-malarial resistance. Several mathematical models, based on the familiar Macdonald-Ross model of malaria transmission, enable us to examine the processes and parameters that are critical in determining the spread of resistance. Results In our simplest model, resistance does not spread if the fraction of infected individuals treated is less than a threshold value; if drug treatment exceeds this threshold, resistance will eventually become fixed in the population. The threshold value is determined only by the rates of infection and the infectious periods of resistant and sensitive parasites in untreated and treated hosts, whereas the intensity of transmission has no influence on the threshold value. In more complex models, where hosts can be infected by multiple parasite strains or where treatment varies spatially, resistance is generally not fixed, but rather some level of sensitivity is often maintained in the population. Conclusions The models developed in this paper are a first step in understanding the epidemiology of anti-malarial resistance and evaluating strategies to reduce the spread of resistance. However, specific recommendations for the management of resistance need to wait until we have more data on the critical parameters underlying the spread of resistance: drug use, spatial variability of treatment and parasite migration among areas, and perhaps most importantly, cost of resistance.

Burden of liver disease in Europe: epidemiology and analysis of risk factors to identify prevention policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Pimpin, Laura; Cortez-Pinto, Helena; Negro, Francesco; Corbould, Emily; Lazarus, Jeffrey V; Webber, Laura; Sheron, Nick

2018-05-16

The burden of liver disease in Europe continues to grow. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of liver diseases and their risk factors in European countries, and identify public health interventions that could impact on these risk factors to reduce the burden of liver disease. As part of the HEPAHEALTH project, commissioned by EASL, we extracted information on historical and current prevalence and mortality from national and international literature and databases on liver disease in 35 countries in the WHO European region, as well as historical and recent prevalence data on their main determinants; alcohol consumption, obesity and hepatitis B and C virus infections. We extracted information from peer-reviewed and grey literature to identify public health interventions targeting these risk factors. The epidemiology of liver disease is diverse and countries cluster with similar pictures, although the exact composition of diseases and the trends in risk factors which drive them is varied. Prevalence and mortality data indicate that increasing cirrhosis and liver cancer may be linked to dramatic increases in harmful alcohol consumption in Northern European countries, and viral hepatitis epidemics in Eastern and Southern European countries. Countries with historically low levels of liver disease may experience an increase in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the future, given the rise of obesity across the majority of European countries. Interventions exist for curbing harmful alcohol use, reducing obesity, preventing or treating viral hepatitis, and screening for liver disease at an early stage. Liver disease in Europe is a serious issue, with increasing cirrhosis and liver cancer. The public health and hepatology communities are uniquely placed to implement measures aimed at reducing their causes: harmful alcohol consumption, child and adult obesity prevalence and chronic infection with hepatitis viruses, which will in turn reduce the burden of liver disease. The

Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Min, Kyung Duk; Cho, Sung Il

2018-03-19

The incidence rate of scrub typhus has been increasing in the Republic of Korea. Previous studies have suggested that this trend may have resulted from the effects of climate change on the transmission dynamics among vectors and hosts, but a clear explanation of the process is still lacking. In this study, we applied mathematical models to explore the potential factors that influence the epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease. We developed mathematical models of ordinary differential equations including human, rodent and mite groups. Two models, including simple and complex models, were developed, and all parameters employed in the models were adopted from previous articles that represent epidemiological situations in the Republic of Korea. The simulation results showed that the force of infection at the equilibrium state under the simple model was 0.236 (per 100,000 person-months), and that in the complex model was 26.796 (per 100,000 person-months). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential parameters were rodent and mite populations and contact rate between them for the simple model, and trans-ovarian transmission for the complex model. In both models, contact rate between humans and mites is more influential than morality rate of rodent and mite group. The results indicate that the effect of controlling either rodents or mites could be limited, and reducing the contact rate between humans and mites is more practical and effective strategy. However, the current level of control would be insufficient relative to the growing mite population. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Epidemiology of Tropical Neglected Diseases in Ecuador in the Last 20 Years

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Cartelle Gestal, Monica; Holban, Alina Maria; Escalante, Santiago; Cevallos, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Background Tropical and zoonotic diseases are major problems in developing countries like Ecuador. Poorly designed houses, the high proportion of isolated indigenous population and under developed infrastructure represent a fertile environment for vectors to proliferate. Control campaigns in Ecuador over the years have had varying success, depending on the disease and vectors targeted. Aims In our study we analyse the current situation of some neglected diseases in Ecuador and the efficiency of the control campaigns (by measuring changes in numbers of cases reported) that the Ecuadorian government has been running to limit the spread of these infectious and parasitic diseases. Results Our study reveals that Brucellosis, Chagas Disease, Rabies and Onchocerciasis have been controlled, but small outbreaks are still detected in endemic areas. Leptospirosis and Echinococcosis have been increasing steadily in recent years in Ecuador since the first records. The same increase has been reported world-wide also. Better diagnosis has resulted in a higher number of cases being identified, particularly with regard to the linking of outdoor activities and contact with farm animals as contributing vectors. Improvements in diagnosis are due to regular professional training, implementation of automatized systems, establishing diagnosis protocols and the creation of an epidemiological vigilance network that acts as soon as a case is reported. Conclusion Control campaigns performed in Ecuador have been successful in recent years, although natural phenomena limit their efficiency. Leptospirosis and Echinococcosis infections remain a growing problem in Ecuador as it is worldwide. PMID:26394405

Epidemiology of Tropical Neglected Diseases in Ecuador in the Last 20 Years.

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Cartelle Gestal, Monica; Holban, Alina Maria; Escalante, Santiago; Cevallos, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Tropical and zoonotic diseases are major problems in developing countries like Ecuador. Poorly designed houses, the high proportion of isolated indigenous population and under developed infrastructure represent a fertile environment for vectors to proliferate. Control campaigns in Ecuador over the years have had varying success, depending on the disease and vectors targeted. In our study we analyse the current situation of some neglected diseases in Ecuador and the efficiency of the control campaigns (by measuring changes in numbers of cases reported) that the Ecuadorian government has been running to limit the spread of these infectious and parasitic diseases. Our study reveals that Brucellosis, Chagas Disease, Rabies and Onchocerciasis have been controlled, but small outbreaks are still detected in endemic areas. Leptospirosis and Echinococcosis have been increasing steadily in recent years in Ecuador since the first records. The same increase has been reported world-wide also. Better diagnosis has resulted in a higher number of cases being identified, particularly with regard to the linking of outdoor activities and contact with farm animals as contributing vectors. Improvements in diagnosis are due to regular professional training, implementation of automatized systems, establishing diagnosis protocols and the creation of an epidemiological vigilance network that acts as soon as a case is reported. Control campaigns performed in Ecuador have been successful in recent years, although natural phenomena limit their efficiency. Leptospirosis and Echinococcosis infections remain a growing problem in Ecuador as it is worldwide.

Chronic Respiratory Diseases in the Regions of Northern Russia: Epidemiological Distinctions in the Results of a National Population Study.

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Gambaryan, Marine H; Shalnova, Svetlana A; Deev, Alexander D; Drapkina, Oxana M

2017-07-26

The aim of the study is to investigate the epidemiological situation regarding chronic respiratory diseases in populations that inhabit different climatic-geographical regions of Russia, and to develop targeted programs for prevention of these diseases. (1) a comparative analysis of the standardized mortality data in Russia and other selected regions of the Russian North using the European standard for respiratory diseases, in a population aged 25-64; and (2) data from a randomized cross-sectional epidemiological study, with subjects from three different climatic-geographical regions of Russia. (1) the respiratory disease-related mortality rates in the majority of Russian Northern regions were much higher compared to the national average. Although death rates from chronic lower respiratory diseases were higher among the Northern regions and in the whole of Russia relative to the countries of European Union (EU), the cause of death in the populations of the Northern regions tend to be lower respiratory infections and pneumonia; and (2) despite the absence of any significant differences in the prevalence of smoking, the prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases (COPD) is significantly higher in Far North Yakutsk compared to the other two regions in this study-Chelyabinsk and Vologda. The status of hyperborean had the highest chance of a significant contribution to COPD and cardiorespiratory pathology among all other risk factors. The results revealed a need for effective targeted strategies for primary and secondary prevention of chronic respiratory diseases for the populations of the Northern regions of Russia. The revealed regional distinctions regarding the prevalence of, and mortality from, chronic respiratory diseases should be taken into consideration when designing integrated programs for chronic non-communicable disease prevention in these regions.

Qualitative analysis of nonlinear incidence rate upon the behaviour of an epidemiological model

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Li Xiaogui.

1988-12-01

Two theorems concerning the solutions of the system of differential equations describing an epidemiological model with nonlinear incidence rate per infective individual are demonstrated. 2 refs, 1 fig

Review Article: The Role of Molecular Pathological Epidemiology in the Study of Neoplastic and Non-neoplastic Diseases in the Era of Precision Medicine.

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Ogino, Shuji; Nishihara, Reiko; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Wang, Molin; Nishi, Akihiro; Lochhead, Paul; Qian, Zhi Rong; Zhang, Xuehong; Wu, Kana; Nan, Hongmei; Yoshida, Kazuki; Milner, Danny A; Chan, Andrew T; Field, Alison E; Camargo, Carlos A; Williams, Michelle A; Giovannucci, Edward L

2016-07-01

Molecular pathology diagnostics to subclassify diseases based on pathogenesis are increasingly common in clinical translational medicine. Molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) is an integrative transdisciplinary science based on the unique disease principle and the disease continuum theory. While it has been most commonly applied to research on breast, lung, and colorectal cancers, MPE can investigate etiologic heterogeneity in non-neoplastic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, obesity, diabetes mellitus, drug toxicity, and immunity-related and infectious diseases. This science can enhance causal inference by linking putative etiologic factors to specific molecular biomarkers as outcomes. Technological advances increasingly enable analyses of various -omics, including genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, metagenomics, microbiome, immunomics, interactomics, etc. Challenges in MPE include sample size limitations (depending on availability of biospecimens or biomedical/radiological imaging), need for rigorous validation of molecular assays and study findings, and paucities of interdisciplinary experts, education programs, international forums, and standardized guidelines. To address these challenges, there are ongoing efforts such as multidisciplinary consortium pooling projects, the International Molecular Pathological Epidemiology Meeting Series, and the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-MPE guideline project. Efforts should be made to build biorepository and biobank networks, and worldwide population-based MPE databases. These activities match with the purposes of the Big Data to Knowledge (BD2K), Genetic Associations and Mechanisms in Oncology (GAME-ON), and Precision Medicine Initiatives of the United States National Institute of Health. Given advances in biotechnology, bioinformatics, and computational/systems biology, there are wide open opportunities in MPE to contribute to public

Epidemiology of foodborne diseases: a worldwide review.

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Todd, E C

1997-01-01

Acute foodborne disease infections and intoxications are much more of a concern to governments and the food industry today than a few decades ago. Some of the factors that have led to this include the identification of new agents that have caused life-threatening conditions; the finding that traditional agents are being associated with foods that were of no concern previously: an increasing number of large outbreaks being reported; the impact of foodborne disease on children, the aging population and the immunocompromised; migrant populations demanding their traditional foods in the countries of settlement; the ease of worldwide shipment of fresh and frozen food; and the development of new food industries, including aquaculture. However, to meaningfully monitor increases or decreases in foodborne disease requires an effective surveillance system at the local, national and international levels. To date, resources have been limited for most countries and regions to do this, and our current knowledge is based, for the most part, on passive reporting mechanisms. Laboratory isolation data and reports of notifiable diseases have some value in observing timely changes in case numbers of some enteric diseases, but they usually do not indicate the reasons for these trends. Special epidemiological studies are useful for the area covered, but it is often questionable whether they can be extrapolated to other areas or countries. Outbreak investigations tell us that a certain set of circumstances led to illness and that another outbreak may occur under similar but not necessarily identical conditions. Control programmes have often been triggered by the conclusions from investigations of specific outbreaks. Unfortunately, the agent/ food combination leading to illness in many of the reported incidents were not predicted from existing databases, and no doubt foodborne agents will continue to surprise food control agencies in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, data from around

Current epidemiology and accessibility to diet compliance in adult celiac disease Epidemiología actual y accesibilidad al seguimiento de la dieta de la enfermedad celiaca del adulto

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F. Casellas

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Background: the widespread of serologic diagnosis for celiac disease has brought about an epidemiologic shift. Little up-to-date information is available on relevant epidemiologic issues regarding diagnosis, information, and therapy. Objective: to examine forms of presentation, diagnostic difficulties, follow-up, information sources, and treatment-related issues regarding celiac disease. Method: a cross-sectional observational study using a self-completed questionnaire. Results: seventy-three adult patients were included; 15.0% of cases were diagnosed over 60 years of age. Most were non-smokers (91.8%. The rate of first-degree relatives with celiac sprue was 10.9%. The disease had a classic presentation in only 54.7% of cases. A functional gastrointestinal disorder was initially suspected in 42.4% of patients. Diet adherence is adequate, with unintentional lack of compliance in 15.5% of patients. Diet results in absent or improved symptoms in virtually all patients, but most of them consider compliance a challenge. Forty percent had difficulty finding gluten-free food, and 50.8% had problems in labelling recognition. Conclusions: celiac disease presents at any age, has a great variety of manifestations, and responds very well to gluten-free diet. It is crucial that patients be highly motivated and informed, and that they know for certain which foods and manufactured products are to be to used. Therefore, adequate control will result from coordination and cooperation regarding all resources involved, including medical care, and information provided by associations and other sources such as the Web.

An epidemic model for the interactions between thermal regime of rivers and transmission of Proliferative Kidney Disease in salmonid fish

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Carraro, Luca; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Strepparava, Nicole; Hartikainen, Hanna; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) affects salmonid populations in European and North-American rivers. It is caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which exploits freshwater bryozoans (Fredericella sultana) and salmonids as primary and secondary hosts, respectively. Incidence and mortality, which can reach up to 90-100%, are known to be strongly related to water temperature. PKD has been present in brown trout population for a long time but has recently increased rapidly in incidence and severity causing a decline in fish catches in many countries. In addition, environmental changes are feared to cause PKD outbreaks at higher latitude and altitude regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development. This calls for a better comprehension of the interactions between disease dynamics and the thermal regime of rivers, in order to possibly devise strategies for disease management. In this perspective, a spatially explicit model of PKD epidemiology in riverine host metacommunities is proposed. The model aims at summarizing the knowledge on the modes of transmission of the disease and the life-cycle of the parasite, making the connection between temperature and epidemiological parameters explicit. The model accounts for both local population and disease dynamics of bryozoans and fish and hydrodynamic dispersion of the parasite spores and hosts along the river network. The model is time-hybrid, coupling inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics, the former being described in a continuous time domain, the latter seen as time steps of a discrete time domain. In order to test the model, a case study is conducted in river Wigger (Cantons of Aargau and Lucerne, Switzerland), where data about water temperature, brown trout and bryozoan populations and PKD prevalence are being collected.

Emerging Vector borne zoonoses: eco-­epidemiology and public health implications in India

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Ramesh C Dhiman

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The diseases originating from animals or associated with man and animals are remerging and have resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality. The present review highlights the re-emergence of emerging mainly zoonotic diseases like chikungunya, scrub typhus, extension of spatial distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis from Western Rajasthan to Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, and Haryana states; West Nile virus to Assam, and non- endemic areas of JE like Maharashtra and JE to Delhi; Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever making inroads in Ahmedabad; reporting fifth parasite of human malaria with possibility of zoonosis have been highlighted which necessitates further studies for prevention and control. Emphasis has been given on understanding the ecology of reservoir hosts of pathogen, micro niche of vector species, climatic, socioeconomic risk factors etc. Development of facilities for diagnosis of virus from insects, reservoirs and human beings (like BSL4 which has been established in NIV, Pune, awareness about symptoms of new emerging viral and other zoonotic diseases, differential diagnosis, risk factors (Climatic, ecological and socioeconomic and mapping of disease specific vulnerable areas, mathematical modeling for projecting epidemiological scenario, are needed for preparedness of public health institutes. It is high time to understand the ecological link of zoonotic or anthroponotic diseases for updated risk maps and epidemiological knowledge for effective preventive and control measures. The public health stakeholders in India as well as in south East Asia should emphasize on understanding the eco-epidemiology of the discussed zoonotic diseases for taking preventive actions.

Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Lumpy Skin Disease in the Middle East, 2012-2015

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Mohammad A. Alkhamis

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV is an infectious disease of cattle that can have severe economic implications. New LSD outbreaks are currently circulating in the Middle East (ME. Since 2012, severe outbreaks were reported in cattle across the region. Characterizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of LSDV in cattle populations is prerequisite for guiding successful surveillance and control efforts at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aim to model the ecological niche of LSDV, and identify epidemic progression patterns over the course of the epidemic. We analyzed publically available outbreak data from the ME for the period 2012-2015 using presence-only maximum entropy ecological niche modeling, and the time-dependent method for the estimation of the effective reproductive number (R-TD. High-risk areas (Probability > 0.60 for LSDV identified by ecological niche modeling included parts of many northeastern ME countries, though Israel and Turkey were estimated to be the most suitable locations for occurrence of LSDV outbreaks. The most important environmental predictors that contributed to the ecological niche of LSDV included annual precipitation, land cover, mean diurnal range, type of livestock production system and global livestock densities. Average monthly effective R-TD was equal to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2, 3.5, whereas the largest R-TD was estimated in Israel (R-TD = 22.2, 95 CI: 15.2, 31.5 in September 2013, which indicated that the demographic and environmental conditions during this period were suitable to LSDV super-spreading events. The sharp drop of Isreal’s inferred R-TD in the following month reflected the success of their 2013 vaccination campaign in controlling the disease. Our results identified areas in which under-reporting of LSDV outbreaks may have occurred. More epidemiological information related to cattle populations are needed to further improve the inferred spatial and temporal characteristics of currently circulating LSDV

Epidemiology: Then and Now.

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Kuller, Lewis H

2016-03-01

Twenty-five years ago, on the 75th anniversary of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, I noted that epidemiologic research was moving away from the traditional approaches used to investigate "epidemics" and their close relationship with preventive medicine. Twenty-five years later, the role of epidemiology as an important contribution to human population research, preventive medicine, and public health is under substantial pressure because of the emphasis on "big data," phenomenology, and personalized medical therapies. Epidemiology is the study of epidemics. The primary role of epidemiology is to identify the epidemics and parameters of interest of host, agent, and environment and to generate and test hypotheses in search of causal pathways. Almost all diseases have a specific distribution in relation to time, place, and person and specific "causes" with high effect sizes. Epidemiology then uses such information to develop interventions and test (through clinical trials and natural experiments) their efficacy and effectiveness. Epidemiology is dependent on new technologies to evaluate improved measurements of host (genomics), epigenetics, identification of agents (metabolomics, proteomics), new technology to evaluate both physical and social environment, and modern methods of data collection. Epidemiology does poorly in studying anything other than epidemics and collections of numerators and denominators without specific hypotheses even with improved statistical methodologies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Epidemiology and control of malaria and other arthropod born diseases

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F. J. López-Antuñano

1992-01-01

Full Text Available Malaria and other arthropod born diseases remain a serious public health problem affecting the lives and health of certain social groups when the two basic strategies to control fail due to : (1 the lack of effective chemoprophylaxis/chemotherapy or the rapid development of drug resistance of the infectious agents and (2 the ineffectiveness of pesticides or the arthropod vectors develop resistance to them. These situations enhances the need for the design and implementation of other alternatives for sustainable health programmes. The application of the epidemiological methods is essential not only for analyzing the relevant data for the understanding of the biological characteristics of the infectious agents, their reservoirs and vectors and the methods for their control, but also for the assessment of the human behaviour, the environmental, social and economic factors involved in disease transmission and the capacity of the health systems to implement interventions for both changes in human behaviour and environmental management to purpose guaranteed prevention and control of malaria and other arthropod born diseases with efficiency, efficacy and equity. This paper discuss the evolution of the malaria arthropod diseases programmes in the American Region and the perspectives for their integration into health promotion programs and emphasis is made in the need to establish solid basis in the decision-making process for the selection of intervention strategies to remove the risk factors determining the probability to get sick or die from ABDs. The implications of the general planning and the polices to be adopted in an area should be analyzed in the light of programme feasibility at the local level, in the multisectoral context specific social groups and taking in consideration the principles of stratification and equity

Epidemiology: past, present and future.

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Kesteloot, H

2004-01-01

Epidemiology in the past was concerned essentially by the study of infectious diseases which were the cause of huge mortalities especially since urbanisation was initiated. Epidemics of pest, typhus, cholera, influenza a.o. were common. The epidemics were halted by better hygiene, vaccination and antibiotics. Since the second world war epidemiology was dominated by an "epidemic" of new chronic diseases, especially heart disease and cancer. This was due to an increase in life span and to an increase in smoking habits and in the intake of saturated fat and a too small intake of fruit and vegetables combined with a too high intake of salt (NaCl). Gradually epidemiology evolved as the study of the causes, the distribution, the risk factors and the prevention of chronic diseases, but also including accidents, suicide, depression a.o., diseases with a mass occurrence at the population level. The importance of nutrition as a determinant of health gradually became recognized, but remains undervalued by the medical profession. Mortality at the population level follows some simple mathematical laws and can be represented accurately (r2>0.99) between the ages of 35 and 84 year by either Gompertz equations (ln mortality versus age) or by a polynomial equation (ln mortality versus age, age2). This is valid for all populations and both sexes and remains valid at times of great and rapid changes in mortality. This shows that measures for prevention should be directed towards the total population. The future of epidemiology should be directed towards the slowing of the ageing process at the population level by a healthy life style consisting of: not smoking, avoiding obesity, a fair amount of physical activity and a healthy nutrition i.e little salt, little saturated fat, an adequate amount of omega-3 fatty acids and a large amount of fruit and vegetables, with an occasional glass of red wine. This contains the secret of a long and healthy life. Conceptually it will be important

The Current Status of the Disease Caused by Enterovirus 71 Infections: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, Molecular Epidemiology, and Vaccine Development.

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Chang, Ping-Chin; Chen, Shou-Chien; Chen, Kow-Tong

2016-09-09

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) infections have a major public health impact in the Asia-Pacific region. We reviewed the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and molecular epidemiology of EV71 infection as well as EV71 vaccine development. Previous studies were found using the search terms "enterovirus 71" and "epidemiology" or "pathogenesis" or "molecular epidemiology" or "vaccine" in Medline and PubMed. Articles that were not published in the English language, manuscripts without an abstract, and opinion articles were excluded from the review. The reported epidemiology of cases caused by EV71 infection varied from country to country; seasonal variations in incidence were observed. Most cases of EV71 infection that resulted in hospitalization for complications occurred in children less than five years old. The brainstem was the most likely major target of EV71 infection. The emergence of the EV71 epidemic in the Asia-Pacific region has been associated with the circulation of different genetic lineages (genotypes B3, B4, C1, C2, and C4) that appear to be undergoing rapid evolutionary changes. The relationship between the gene structure of the EV71 virus and the factors that ensure its survival, circulation, and evasion of immunity is still unknown. EV71 infection has emerged as an important global public health problem. Vaccine development, including the development of inactivated whole-virus live attenuated, subviral particles, and DNA vaccines, has been progressing.

Molecular Epidemiology of Heart Failure

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J. Gustav Smith, MD, PhD

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Heart failure (HF is the end-stage of all heart disease and arguably constitutes the greatest unmet therapeutic need in cardiovascular medicine today. Classic epidemiological studies have established clinical risk factors for HF, but the cause remains poorly understood in many cases. Biochemical analyses of small case-control series and animal models have described a plethora of molecular characteristics of HF, but a single unifying pathogenic theory is lacking. Heart failure appears to result not only from cardiac overload or injury but also from a complex interplay among genetic, neurohormonal, metabolic, inflammatory, and other biochemical factors acting on the heart. Recent development of robust, high-throughput tools in molecular biology provides opportunity for deep molecular characterization of population-representative cohorts and HF cases (molecular epidemiology, including genome sequencing, profiling of myocardial gene expression and chromatin modifications, plasma composition of proteins and metabolites, and microbiomes. The integration of such detailed information holds promise for improving understanding of HF pathophysiology in humans, identification of therapeutic targets, and definition of disease subgroups beyond the current classification based on ejection fraction which may benefit from improved individual tailoring of therapy. Challenges include: 1 the need for large cohorts with deep, uniform phenotyping; 2 access to the relevant tissues, ideally with repeated sampling to capture dynamic processes; and 3 analytical issues related to integration and analysis of complex datasets. International research consortia have formed to address these challenges and combine datasets, and cohorts with up to 1 million participants are being collected. This paper describes the molecular epidemiology of HF and provides an overview of methods and tissue types and examples of published and ongoing efforts to systematically evaluate molecular

Epidemiology of serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease in Ontario, Canada, 2000 to 2010

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Dang Vica

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD caused by serogroup B is the last major serogroup in Canada to become vaccine-preventable. The anticipated availability of vaccines targeting this serogroup prompted an assessment of the epidemiology of serogroup B disease in Ontario, Canada. Methods We retrieved information on confirmed IMD cases reported to Ontario’s reportable disease database between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010 and probabilistically-linked these cases to Public Health Ontario Laboratory records. Rates were calculated with denominator data obtained from Statistics Canada. We calculated a crude number needed to vaccinate using the inverse of the infant ( Results A total of 259 serogroup B IMD cases were identified in Ontario over the 11-year period. Serogroup B was the most common cause of IMD. Incidence ranged from 0.11 to 0.27/100,000/year, and fluctuated over time. Cases ranged in age from 13 days to 101 years; 21.4% occurred in infants, of which 72.7% were Conclusions Although rare, the proportion of IMD caused by serogroup B has increased and currently causes most IMD in Ontario, with infants having the highest risk of disease. Although serogroup B meningococcal vaccines are highly anticipated, our findings suggest that decisions regarding publicly funding serogroup B meningococcal vaccines will be difficult and may not be based on disease burden alone.

[Cost estimation of an epidemiological surveillance network for animal diseases in Central Africa: a case study of the Chad network].

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Ouagal, M; Berkvens, D; Hendrikx, P; Fecher-Bourgeois, F; Saegerman, C

2012-12-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, most epidemiological surveillance networks for animal diseases were temporarily funded by foreign aid. It should be possible for national public funds to ensure the sustainability of such decision support tools. Taking the epidemiological surveillance network for animal diseases in Chad (REPIMAT) as an example, this study aims to estimate the network's cost by identifying the various costs and expenditures for each level of intervention. The network cost was estimated on the basis of an analysis of the operational organisation of REPIMAT, additional data collected in surveys and interviews with network field workers and a market price listing for Chad. These costs were then compared with those of other epidemiological surveillance networks in West Africa. The study results indicate that REPIMAT costs account for 3% of the State budget allocated to the Ministry of Livestock. In Chad in general, as in other West African countries, fixed costs outweigh variable costs at every level of intervention. The cost of surveillance principally depends on what is needed for surveillance at the local level (monitoring stations) and at the intermediate level (official livestock sectors and regional livestock delegations) and on the cost of the necessary equipment. In African countries, the cost of surveillance per square kilometre depends on livestock density.

[Epidemiological risk of introduction of dangerous and exotic infectious diseases on the territory of the XXII Olympic Winter Games and XI Paralympic Winter Games 2014 in Sochi].

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Kuz'kin, B P; Ezhlova, E B; Kulichenko, A N; Maletskaia, O V; Demina, Iu V; Taran, T V; Pakskina, N D; Kharchenko, T V; Grizhebovskiĭ, G M; Savel'ev, V N; Orobeĭ, V G; Klindukhov, V P; Grechanaia, T V; Tesheva, S Ch; Brukhanova, G D

2015-01-01

To assess the epidemiological risk of introduction of serious infectious diseases in the pre-Olympic period defined list of dangerous and exotic infections and held assessment of potential danger threatening. Initial external information to assess the potential risk of skidding were reports, forecasts, posted on the official websites. The risk of skidding and epidemiological complications conditionally designated as high, moderate and minimal risk importation of measles virus-Rate was considered as high. In confirmation of the forecast for the period of the Olympic Games in Sochi have been registered about 100 cases of measles. Moderate risk of importation was determined for poliomyelitis due to wild poliovirus, Lassa fever, cholera, plague, and the minimal--for Dengue fever, yellow fever, the Middle East and respiratory syndrome, diseases caused by viruses Marburg and Ebola. Based on of analysis of previous Olympic Games and subsequent co-events related to the activity of the infectious diseases in the world, mate-cluded that even a slight risk of importation of infectious diseases requires maximum alertness and readiness to conduct adequate epidemiological issues incorporated.

Epidemiological review of human and animal fascioliasis in Egypt.

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Soliman, Maha F M

2008-06-01

One of the neglected food-borne-diseases in the international public health arena is fascioliasis. It is a serious infectious parasitic disease infecting humans and animals worldwide and tops all the zoonotic helminthes. Human cases are being increasingly reported from Europe, the Americas, Oceania, Africa and Asia. Hence, human fascioliasis is considered now as a zoonosis of major global and regional importance. In Egypt, animal and human fascioliasis is an endemic clinical and epidemiological health problem. Doubtless, understanding the epidemiology of the parasitic diseases and factors affecting their incidence provides the foundation upon which effective prevention and control programs should be established. This article reviews the history, life cycles, transmission, incidence, geographical distribution, and environmental and human determinants that contribute to the epidemiological picture of fascioliasis with special reference to Egypt.

Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models.

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Jaber Belkhiria

Full Text Available The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest. We used observations on the presence of Low Pathogenic Avian influenza virus (LPAI in waterfowl or water samples at 355 locations throughout the state and environmental variables relevant to the disease epidemiology. We used two algorithms, Random Forest and MaxEnt, and two data-sets Presence-Background and Presence-Absence data. The models performed well (AUCc > 0.7 for testing data, particularly those using Presence-Background data (AUCc > 0.85. Spatial predictions were similar between algorithms, but there were large differences between the predictions with Presence-Absence and Presence-Background data. Overall, predictors that contributed most to the models included land cover, distance to coast, and broiler farm density. Models successfully identified several counties as high-to-intermediate risk out of the 8 counties with observed outbreaks during the 2014-2015 HPAI epizootics. This study provides further insights into the spatial epidemiology of AI in California, and the high spatial resolution maps may be useful to guide risk-based surveillance and outreach efforts.

Chapter 2. Fasciola, lymnaeids and human fascioliasis, with a global overview on disease transmission, epidemiology, evolutionary genetics, molecular epidemiology and control.

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Mas-Coma, Santiago; Valero, María Adela; Bargues, María Dolores

2009-01-01

Fascioliasis, caused by liver fluke species of the genus Fasciola, has always been well recognized because of its high veterinary impact but it has been among the most neglected diseases for decades with regard to human infection. However, the increasing importance of human fascioliasis worldwide has re-launched interest in fascioliasis. From the 1990s, many new concepts have been developed regarding human fascioliasis and these have furnished a new baseline for the human disease that is very different to a simple extrapolation from fascioliasis in livestock. Studies have shown that human fascioliasis presents marked heterogeneity, including different epidemiological situations and transmission patterns in different endemic areas. This heterogeneity, added to the present emergence/re-emergence of the disease both in humans and animals in many regions, confirms a worrying global scenario. The huge negative impact of fascioliasis on human communities demands rapid action. When analyzing how better to define control measures for endemic areas differing at such a level, it would be useful to have genetic markers that could distinguish each type of transmission pattern and epidemiological situation. Accordingly, this chapter covers aspects of aetiology, geographical distribution, epidemiology, transmission and control in order to obtain a solid baseline for the interpretation of future results. The origins and geographical spread of F. hepatica and F. gigantica in both the ruminant pre-domestication times and the livestock post-domestication period are analyzed. Paleontological, archaeological and historical records, as well as genetic data on recent dispersal of livestock species, are taken into account to establish an evolutionary framework for the two fasciolids across all continents. Emphasis is given to the distributional overlap of both species and the roles of transportation, transhumance and trade in the different overlap situations. Areas with only one Fasciola

A review of the epidemiologic literature on the role of environmental arsenic exposure and cardiovascular diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, C.-H.; Hsiao, C.K.; Chen, C.-L.; Hsu, L.-I; Chiou, H.-Y.; Chen, S.-Y.; Hsueh, Y.-M.; Wu, M.-M.; Chen, C.-J.

2007-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Arsenic is a ubiquitous metalloid in the crust of the earth. Chronic arsenic poisoning is becoming an emerging epidemic in Asia. Epidemiological studies have shown that chronic arsenic poisoning through ingestion of arsenic-contaminated water is associated with various cardiovascular diseases in dose-response relationships. These cardiovascular disorders include carotid atherosclerosis detected by ultrasonography, impaired microcirculation, prolonged QT interval and increased QT dispersion in electrocardiography, and clinical outcomes such as hypertension, blackfoot disease (a unique peripheral vascular disease endemic in southwestern Taiwan), coronary artery disease and cerebral infarction. Chronic arsenic poisoning is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The adverse cardiovascular effects of long-term arsenic exposure may be persistent and/or irreversible. Arsenic-induced cardiovascular diseases in human population may result from the interaction among genetic, environment and nutritional factors. The major adverse cardiovascular effect of chronic arsenic poisoning has been established qualitatively and quantitatively in the high arsenic exposure areas, but the low-dose effect of arsenic on cardiovascular diseases remains to be explored. Cardiovascular death is the major cause of mortality worldwide, and a small increased risk may imply a large quantity of excess mortality

The impact of strain-specific immunity on Lyme disease incidence is spatially heterogeneous.

Science.gov (United States)

Khatchikian, Camilo E; Nadelman, Robert B; Nowakowski, John; Schwartz, Ira; Wormser, Gary P; Brisson, Dustin

2017-12-01

Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, is the most common tick-borne infection in the US. Recent studies have demonstrated that the incidence of human Lyme disease would have been even greater were it not for the presence of strain-specific immunity, which protects previously infected patients against subsequent infections by the same B. burgdorferi strain. Here, spatial heterogeneity is incorporated into epidemiological models to accurately estimate the impact of strain-specific immunity on human Lyme disease incidence. The estimated reduction in the number of Lyme disease cases is greater in epidemiologic models that explicitly include the spatial distribution of Lyme disease cases reported at the county level than those that utilize nationwide data. strain-specific immunity has the greatest epidemiologic impact in geographic areas with the highest Lyme disease incidence due to the greater proportion of people that have been previously infected and have developed strain-specific immunity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Asia Pacific Consensus Statements on Crohn's disease. Part 1: Definition, diagnosis, and epidemiology: (Asia Pacific Crohn's Disease Consensus--Part 1).

Science.gov (United States)

Ooi, Choon Jin; Makharia, Govind K; Hilmi, Ida; Gibson, Peter R; Fock, Kwong Ming; Ahuja, Vineet; Ling, Khoon Lin; Lim, Wee Chian; Thia, Kelvin T; Wei, Shu-chen; Leung, Wai Keung; Koh, Poh Koon; Gearry, Richard B; Goh, Khean Lee; Ouyang, Qin; Sollano, Jose; Manatsathit, Sathaporn; de Silva, H Janaka; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Pisespongsa, Pises; Abu Hassan, Muhamad Radzi; Sung, Joseph; Hibi, Toshifumi; Boey, Christopher C M; Moran, Neil; Leong, Rupert W L

2016-01-01

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was previously thought to be rare in Asia, but emerging data indicate rising incidence and prevalence of IBD in the region. The Asia Pacific Working Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease was established in Cebu, Philippines, at the Asia Pacific Digestive Week conference in 2006 under the auspices of the Asian Pacific Association of Gastroenterology with the goal of developing best management practices, coordinating research, and raising awareness of IBD in the region. The consensus group previously published recommendations for the diagnosis and management of ulcerative colitis with specific relevance to the Asia-Pacific region. The present consensus statements were developed following a similar process to address the epidemiology, diagnosis, and management of Crohn's disease. The goals of these statements are to pool the pertinent literature specifically highlighting relevant data and conditions in the Asia-Pacific region relating to the economy, health systems, background infectious diseases, differential diagnoses, and treatment availability. It does not intend to be all comprehensive and future revisions are likely to be required in this ever-changing field. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Fertility and pregnancy: an epidemiologic perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wilcox, Allen J

2010-01-01

.... Weaving together history, biology, obstetrics, pediatrics, demography, infectious diseases, molecular genetics, and evolutionary biology, Allen Wilcox brings a fresh coherence to the epidemiologic...

Demography, maternal health and the epidemiology of malaria and other major infectious diseases in the rural department Tsamba-Magotsi, Ngounie Province, in central African Gabon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Zoleko Manego

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiological transition from a predominance of infectious diseases to non-communicable and lifestyle related conditions. However, the pace of this transition and the pattern of disease epidemiology are uneven between affluent urban and rural poor populations. To address this question for a remote rural region located in the central African rainforest region of Gabon, this study was conducted to assess reasons for health care attendance and to characterize the epidemiology of malaria and other major infectious diseases for the department of Tsamba Magotsi. Methods Major causes for health care attendance were collected from local hospital records. Cross sectional population based surveys were performed for the assessment of local malaria epidemiology. Pregnant women attending antenatal care services were surveyed as a sentinel population for the characterization of chronic viral and parasitic infections in the community. Results Infectious diseases were responsible for 71% (7469 of a total of 10,580 consultations at the formal health care sector in 2010. Overall, malaria – defined by clinical syndrome – remained the most frequent cause for health care attendance. A cross sectional malaria survey in 840 asymptomatic individuals residing in Tsamba Magotsi resulted in a Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence of 37%. The infection rate in 2–10 year old asymptomatic children – a standard measure for malaria endemicity – was 46% (100 of 217 with P. falciparum as predominant species (79%. Infection with other plasmodial species (P. ovale and P. malariae presented most commonly as coinfections (23.2%. Prevalence of HIV, HBV, and syphilis were 6.2, 7.3, and 2.5%, respectively, in cross-sectional assessments of antenatal care visits of pregnant women. Urogenital schistosomiasis and the filarial pathogens Loa loa and Mansonella perstans are highly prevalent chronic parasitic infections

Epidemiology of pollution-induced airway disease in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyamoto, T.

1997-01-01

Air pollution has been implicated as one of the factors responsible for the increased incidence of allergic diseases seen over recent years. Epidemiological studies in Japan demonstrate that atopic subjects living in urban areas are more likely to suffer from the effects of air pollution, with increased coughing, sputum production, wheezing and throat irritation. Furthermore, animal studies show that high concentrations of pollutant gases can promote airway sensitization. The incidence of allergic Rhinitis and asthma have been shown to be greater in areas where there is heavy traffic and hence high levels of automobile exhaust emissions. Intranasal administration of diesel exhaust particles in mice produces a stimulatory effect on immunoglobulin E production, and a similar finding has also been shown with suspended particulate matter in air. Air pollutants, such as ozone and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), have been shown to stimulate the production of granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor, which may play a vital role in airway hyperreactivity and asthma. In comparative studies of asthma in urban and rural areas, history of airway infection and a younger age of onset were found to be significantly greater in urban areas. When the asthmatic patients were divided into two groups according to environmental NO 2 levels (group I: NO 2 >30 ppb, group II: NO 2 <30 ppb), no significant difference regarding the various parameters was noted between the two groups, except for a greater severity of asthma in adults in group I, and a greater severity in chrildren in group II. These studies imply that air pollution may be one reason for the increase in allergic diseases in Japan, but a definitive conclusion cannot be drawn, and further, investigation is warranted. (au)

Clinical and epidemiological aspects of feline leishmaniasis in Brazil

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Luiz da Silveira Neto

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Tegumentary and visceral leishmaniasis are severe and unfortunately common parasitic diseases in Brazil. Among domestic animals, dogs are considered the main urban reservoir of the protozoan parasites, however, there is evidence that infected cats can also contribute towards the disease pool. The number of cats diagnosed with leishmaniasis has greatly increased in the last few years, highlighting the importance of thorough investigations on the role of the cat in the epidemiological cycle of the disease and in public health related issues. The main clinical manifestations of leishmaniasis suffered by cats, even when infected with Leishmania chagasi, a viscerotropic species, are skin abnormalities, which can be confounded with multiple other diseases. Indirect ELISA should be used as a screening test in epidemiological investigations for being a sensitive technique, followed by more specific laboratory tests. The standardization and validation of rapid, economical and reproducible diagnostic methods, to be employed in epidemiological surveillance, are still required

Epidemiology of Epidemic Ebola Virus Disease in Conakry and Surrounding Prefectures, Guinea, 2014-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Rico, Adriana; Brody, Debra; Coronado, Fátima; Rondy, Marc; Fiebig, Lena; Carcelen, Andrea; Deyde, Varough M; Mesfin, Samuel; Retzer, Kyla D; Bilivogui, Pepe; Keita, Sakoba; Dahl, Benjamin A

2016-02-01

In 2014, Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was first reported during March in 3 southeastern prefectures in Guinea; from there, the disease rapidly spread across West Africa. We describe the epidemiology of EVD cases reported in Guinea's capital, Conakry, and 4 surrounding prefectures (Coyah, Dubreka, Forecariah, and Kindia), encompassing a full year of the epidemic. A total of 1,355 EVD cases, representing ≈40% of cases reported in Guinea, originated from these areas. Overall, Forecariah had the highest cumulative incidence (4× higher than that in Conakry). Case-fatality percentage ranged from 40% in Conakry to 60% in Kindia. Cumulative incidence was slightly higher among male than female residents, although incidences by prefecture and commune differed by sex. Over the course of the year, Conakry and neighboring prefectures became the EVD epicenter in Guinea.

History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrianakis, I; Vernon, I; McCreesh, N; McKinley, T J; Oakley, J E; Nsubuga, R N; Goldstein, M; White, R G

2017-08-01

Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this work, we adapt history matching to stochastic models, by emulating the variance in the model outputs, and therefore accounting for its dependence on the model's input values. The method proposed is applied to a real complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus in Uganda with 22 inputs and 18 outputs, and is found to increase the efficiency of history matching, requiring 70% of the time and 43% fewer simulator evaluations compared with a previous variant of the method. The insight gained into the structure of the human immunodeficiency virus model, and the constraints placed on it, are then discussed.

COELIAC DISEASE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA: time for a concerted approach to its epidemiology

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Affifa FARRUKH

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Central and South America offer an opportunity to resolve some of the current controversies that surround the epidemiology of celiac disease. Through a concerted action which brings together clinicians, researchers and patients there is an opportunity to establish robust data sets which will allow detailed analysis of environmental and genetic factors. In this review available data from the continent together with data from Spain and Italy are drawn together to give a current picture in the hope that it will stimulate further research.

The social and political lives of zoonotic disease models: narratives, science and policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Leach, Melissa; Scoones, Ian

2013-07-01

Zoonotic diseases currently pose both major health threats and complex scientific and policy challenges, to which modelling is increasingly called to respond. In this article we argue that the challenges are best met by combining multiple models and modelling approaches that elucidate the various epidemiological, ecological and social processes at work. These models should not be understood as neutral science informing policy in a linear manner, but as having social and political lives: social, cultural and political norms and values that shape their development and which they carry and project. We develop and illustrate this argument in relation to the cases of H5N1 avian influenza and Ebola, exploring for each the range of modelling approaches deployed and the ways they have been co-constructed with a particular politics of policy. Addressing the complex, uncertain dynamics of zoonotic disease requires such social and political lives to be made explicit in approaches that aim at triangulation rather than integration, and plural and conditional rather than singular forms of policy advice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological, demographic, and clinical characteristics of 47 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease from Saudi Arabia: a descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Assiri, Abdullah; Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A; Al-Rabeeah, Abdullah A; Al-Rabiah, Fahad A; Al-Hajjar, Sami; Al-Barrak, Ali; Flemban, Hesham; Al-Nassir, Wafa N; Balkhy, Hanan H; Al-Hakeem, Rafat F; Makhdoom, Hatem Q; Zumla, Alimuddin I; Memish, Ziad A

2013-09-01

Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is a new human disease caused by a novel coronavirus (CoV). Clinical data on MERS-CoV infections are scarce. We report epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of 47 cases of MERS-CoV infections, identify knowledge gaps, and define research priorities. We abstracted and analysed epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from confirmed cases of sporadic, household, community, and health-care-associated MERS-CoV infections reported from Saudi Arabia between Sept 1, 2012, and June 15, 2013. Cases were confirmed as having MERS-CoV by real-time RT-PCR. 47 individuals (46 adults, one child) with laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV disease were identified; 36 (77%) were male (male:female ratio 3·3:1). 28 patients died, a 60% case-fatality rate. The case-fatality rate rose with increasing age. Only two of the 47 cases were previously healthy; most patients (45 [96%]) had underlying comorbid medical disorders, including diabetes (32 [68%]), hypertension (16 [34%]), chronic cardiac disease (13 [28%]), and chronic renal disease (23 [49%]). Common symptoms at presentation were fever (46 [98%]), fever with chills or rigors (41 [87%]), cough (39 [83%]), shortness of breath (34 [72%]), and myalgia (15 [32%]). Gastrointestinal symptoms were also frequent, including diarrhoea (12 [26%]), vomiting (ten [21%]), and abdominal pain (eight [17%]). All patients had abnormal findings on chest radiography, ranging from subtle to extensive unilateral and bilateral abnormalities. Laboratory analyses showed raised concentrations of lactate dehydrogenase (23 [49%]) and aspartate aminotransferase (seven [15%]) and thrombocytopenia (17 [36%]) and lymphopenia (16 [34%]). Disease caused by MERS-CoV presents with a wide range of clinical manifestations and is associated with substantial mortality in admitted patients who have medical comorbidities. Major gaps in our knowledge of the epidemiology, community prevalence

The French Chronic Kidney Disease-Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (CKD-REIN) cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Stengel, Bénédicte; Combe, Christian; Jacquelinet, Christian; Briançon, Serge; Fouque, Denis; Laville, Maurice; Frimat, Luc; Pascal, Christophe; Herpe, Yves-Edouard; Deleuze, Jean-François; Schanstra, Joost; Pisoni, Ron L; Robinson, Bruce M; Massy, Ziad A

2014-08-01

While much has been learned about the epidemiology and treatment of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the last 30 years, chronic kidney disease (CKD) before the end-stage has been less investigated. Not enough is known about factors associated with CKD progression and complications, as well as its transition to ESRD. We designed the CKD-renal epidemiology and information network (REIN) cohort to provide a research platform to address these key questions and to assess clinical practices and costs in patients with moderate or advanced CKD. A total of 46 clinic sites and 4 renal care networks participate in the cohort. A stratified selection of clinic sites yields a sample that represents a diversity of settings, e.g. geographic region, and public versus for-profit and non-for-profit private clinics. In each site, 60-90 patients with CKD are enrolled at a routine clinic visit during a 12-month enrolment phase: 3600 total, including 1800 with Stage 3 and 1800 with Stage 4 CKD. Follow-up will continue for 5 years, including after initiation of renal replacement therapy. Data will be collected from medical records at inclusion and at yearly intervals, as well as from self-administered patient questionnaires and provider-level questionnaires. Patients will also be interviewed at baseline, and at 1, 3 and 5 years. Healthcare costs will also be determined. Blood and urine samples will be collected and stored for future studies on all patients at enrolment and at study end, and at 1 and 3 years in a subsample of 1200. The CKD-REIN cohort will serve to improve our understanding of the biological, clinical and healthcare system determinants associated with CKD progression and adverse outcomes as well as of international variations in collaboration with the CKD Outcome and Practice Pattern Study (CKDopps). It will foster CKD epidemiology and outcomes research and provide evidence to improve the health and quality of life of patients with CKD and the performances of the

[Ischemic origin of diabetic foot disease. Epidemiology, difficulties of diagnosis, options for prevention and revascularization].

Science.gov (United States)

Kolossváry, Endre; Bánsághi, Zoltán; Szabó, Gábor Viktor; Járai, Zoltán; Farkas, Katalin

2017-02-01

"Diabetic foot" as definition covers a multifactorial clinical condition. According to the recent epidemiological data, the role of lower limb ischemia is getting more influential over other pathological causes, like neuropathy, infections and bone or soft tissue deformity. In diabetes, vascular disease leads to increased risk for leg ulcers and minor or major amputations. The traditional diagnostic tools for recognition of peripheral arterial disease have limited value because of diabetes specific clinical manifestations. Available vascular centers with special expertise and diagnostic tools are the prerequisite for efficient diagnosis supporting timely recognition of peripheral arterial disease. In course of treatment of diabetic foot with ischemic origin, beyond effective medical treatment revascularization (open vascular surgery or endovascular procedures) has paramount importance for prevention of limb loss. Vascular teams of vascular specialists, vascular surgeons and interventional radiologist in dedicated centers in multidisciplinary cooperation with other professions represent public health issue in effective prevention. Orv. Hetil., 2017, 158(6), 203-211.

Histopathologic reproducibility of thyroid disease in an epidemiologic study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ron, E.; Griffel, B.; Liban, E.; Modan, B.

1986-01-01

An investigation of the long-term effects of childhood scalp irradiation demonstrated a significantly increased risk of thyroid tumors in the irradiated population. Because of the complexity of thyroid cancer diagnosis, a histopathologic slide review of 59 of the 68 patients (irradiated and nonirradiated) with thyroid disease was undertaken. The review revealed 90% agreement (kappa = +0.85, P less than 0.01) between the original and review diagnosis. Four of 27 cases previously diagnosed as malignant were reclassified as benign, yielding a cancer misdiagnosis rate of 14.8%. All four of the misdiagnosed cancers were of follicular or mixed papillary-follicular type. As a result of the histologic review, the ratio of malignant to benign tumors decreased from 2.55 to 1.75. Since disagreement in diagnosis was similar in the irradiated and nonirradiated groups, the relative risk of radiation-associated neoplasms did not change substantially. The histopathologic review shows that although there were some problems in diagnostic reproducibility, they were not statistically significant and did not alter our previous conclusions regarding radiation exposure. However, a 15% reduction in the number of malignancies might affect epidemiologic studies with an external comparison as well as geographic or temporal comparisons

The effects of clinical, epidemiological and economic aspects of changes in classification criteria of selected rheumatic diseases

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Aleksander J. Owczarek

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the epidemiology and socio-economic aspects of the three most common rheumatic diseases: rheumatoid arthritis (RA, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE and scleroderma. The incidence of rheumatic diseases in a population is estimated at 4–5%. Prevalence rate for RA in Poland is 0.45% of the adult population and is similar to the rate reported in the EU (0.49%. It is estimated that the average incidence of SLE is 40–55 per 100 thousand and that the annual incidence of systemic sclerosis is 19–35 cases per million (depending on the country. Nearly 18% of all hospital admissions in Poland are associated with rheumatic diseases. The introduction of new classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis, allowing classification of the early forms of the disease and their use in clinical practice will probably change the assessment of incidence of this disease in the population.

An approach to model monitoring and surveillance data of wildlife diseases-exemplified by Classical Swine Fever in wild boar.

Science.gov (United States)

Stahnke, N; Liebscher, V; Staubach, C; Ziller, M

2013-11-01

The analysis of epidemiological field data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MOSSs) in wild animals is of great importance in order to evaluate the performance of such systems. By parameter estimation from MOSS data, conclusions about disease dynamics in the observed population can be drawn. To strengthen the analysis, the implementation of a maximum likelihood estimation is the main aim of our work. The new approach presented here is based on an underlying simple SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for a disease scenario in a wildlife population. The three corresponding classes are assumed to govern the intensities (number of animals in the classes) of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. A sampling rate was defined which describes the process of data collection (for MOSSs). Further, the performance of the diagnostics was implemented in the model by a diagnostic matrix containing misclassification rates. Both descriptions of these MOSS parts were included in the Poisson process approach. For simulation studies, the combined model demonstrates its ability to validly estimate epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction rate R0. These parameters will help the evaluation of existing disease control systems. They will also enable comparison with other simulation models. The model has been tested with data from a Classical Swine Fever (CSF) outbreak in wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa L.) from a region of Germany (1999-2002). The results show that the hunting strategy as a sole control tool is insufficient to decrease the threshold for susceptible animals to eradicate the disease, since the estimated R0 confirms an ongoing epidemic of CSF. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pathogenesis of Helicobacter pylori-Related Gastroduodenal Diseases from Molecular Epidemiological Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamaoka, Yoshio

2012-01-01

Helicobacter pylori is a major human pathogen that infects the stomach and produces inflammation that is responsible for various gastroduodenal diseases. Despite the high prevalence of H. pylori infections in Africa and South Asia, the incidence of gastric cancer in these areas is much lower than in other countries. The incidence of gastric cancer also tends to decrease from north to south in East Asia. Data from molecular epidemiological studies show that this variation in different geographic areas could be explained in part by different types of H. pylori virulence factors, especially CagA, VacA, and OipA. H. pylori infection is thought to be involved in both gastric cancer and duodenal ulcer, which are at opposite ends of the disease spectrum. This discrepancy can also be explained in part by another H. pylori factor, DupA, as well as by CagA typing (East Asian type versus Western type). H. pylori has a genome of approximately 1,600 genes; therefore, there might be other novel virulence factors. Because genome wide analyses using whole-genome sequencing technology give a broad view of the genome of H. pylori, we hope that next-generation sequencers will enable us to efficiently investigate novel virulence factors.

Pathogenesis of Helicobacter pylori-Related Gastroduodenal Diseases from Molecular Epidemiological Studies

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Yoshio Yamaoka

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Helicobacter pylori is a major human pathogen that infects the stomach and produces inflammation that is responsible for various gastroduodenal diseases. Despite the high prevalence of H. pylori infections in Africa and South Asia, the incidence of gastric cancer in these areas is much lower than in other countries. The incidence of gastric cancer also tends to decrease from north to south in East Asia. Data from molecular epidemiological studies show that this variation in different geographic areas could be explained in part by different types of H. pylori virulence factors, especially CagA, VacA, and OipA. H. pylori infection is thought to be involved in both gastric cancer and duodenal ulcer, which are at opposite ends of the disease spectrum. This discrepancy can also be explained in part by another H. pylori factor, DupA, as well as by CagA typing (East Asian type versus Western type. H. pylori has a genome of approximately 1,600 genes; therefore, there might be other novel virulence factors. Because genome wide analyses using whole-genome sequencing technology give a broad view of the genome of H. pylori, we hope that next-generation sequencers will enable us to efficiently investigate novel virulence factors.

Epidemiological study of Paget's disease of bone in a zone of the Province of Salamanca (spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mironon-Canelo, J.A.; Del Pino-Montes, J.; Vicente-Arroyo, M.; Saenz-Gonzalez, M.C.

1997-01-01

Bone Paget's disease is heterogeneously distributed and several foci of high prevalence have been reported in Spain. The aim of the present work was to determine the prevalence of the disease in a zone situated in the northwestern sector of the Province of Salamanca (Spain) using a cross sectional epidemiological study. Sample choice was based on a stratified sampling according to the residence, age and sex of the inhabitants of the zone. A sampling error of 5% and a confidence level of 95% were considered; these afforded a sample of 378 units. Final choice of the subjects was based on a random pathway method. Data collection was accomplished with a personal interview using a 31-item questionnaire and analytical screening (AP and GGT). The field work was carried out over a one-year period. The data were input onto a calculation sheet for analysis and epidemiological interpretation. Finally, clinico-radiological confirmation of the cases deemed positive in the screening was accomplished. The prevalence of PBD in the zone studied is 5.7% (95% CI: 4.5-6.9). The highest percentage of patients lies within the age group between 70-79 years; most of these patients were women. The mean residence time in the zone was 66 years. According to the findings, this geographic zone has a high prevalence of PBD

[The French Chronic Kidney Disease-Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (CKD-REIN) cohort study: To better understand chronic kidney disease].

Science.gov (United States)

Stengel, Bénédicte; Combe, Christian; Jacquelinet, Christian; Briançon, Serge; Fouque, Denis; Laville, Maurice; Frimat, Luc; Pascal, Christophe; Herpe, Yves-Édouard; Morel, Pascal; Deleuze, Jean-François; Schanstra, Joost P; Pisoni, Ron L; Robinson, Bruce M; Massy, Ziad A

2016-04-01

Preserving kidney function and improving the transition from chronic kidney disease to end stage is a research and healthcare challenge. The national Chronic Kidney Disease-Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (CKD-REIN) cohort was established to identify the determinants, biomarkers and practice patterns associated with chronic kidney disease outcomes. The study will include more than 3000 adult patients with moderate to advanced chronic kidney disease from a representative sample of 40 nephrology clinics with respect to regions and legal status, public or private. Patients are recruited during a routine visit and followed for 5 years, before and after starting renal replacement therapy. Patient-level clinical, biological, and lifestyle data are collected annually, as well as provider-level data on clinical practices, coordinated with the International Chronic Kidney Disease Outcomes and Practice Pattern Study. Blood and urine samples are stored in a biobank. Major studied outcomes include survival, patient-reported outcomes, disease progression and hospitalizations. More than 13,000 eligible patients with chronic kidney disease were identified, 60% with stage 3 and 40% with stage 4. Their median age is 72 years [interquartile range, 62-80 years], 60% are men and 38% have diabetes. By the end of December 2015, 2885 patients were included. The CKD-REIN cohort will serve to improve our understanding of chronic kidney disease and provide evidence to improve patient survival and quality of life as well as health care system performances. Copyright © 2016 Association Société de néphrologie. All rights reserved.

La epidemiología ocupacional como herramienta básica para la salud de los trabajadores Occupational epidemiology as a basic tool for workers' health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caristina Robaina Aguirre

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Se realizó un pequeño bosquejo del desarrollo de la Epidemiología como ciencia y su importancia en salud pública en general. Se transita por las definiciones de vieja y nueva epidemiología, de enfermedades crónicas, transmisibles y no transmisibles, del concepto de epidemiología social, etc. para posteriormente hablar de la importancia de la Epidemiología Ocupacional en la Salud PúblicaA review of the development of Epidemiology as a science, and its significance in public health in general, was made. The old and new definitions of epidemiology, of chronic, transmissible and non-transmissible diseases, of social epidemiology concept, etc., are analysed to further deal with the importance of Occupational Epidemiology in Public Health.

Computational modeling of interventions and protective thresholds to prevent disease transmission in deploying populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Colleen; Peace, Angela; Everett, Rebecca; Allegri, Buena; Garman, Patrick

2014-01-01

Military personnel are deployed abroad for missions ranging from humanitarian relief efforts to combat actions; delay or interruption in these activities due to disease transmission can cause operational disruptions, significant economic loss, and stressed or exceeded military medical resources. Deployed troops function in environments favorable to the rapid and efficient transmission of many viruses particularly when levels of protection are suboptimal. When immunity among deployed military populations is low, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks increases, impacting troop readiness and achievement of mission objectives. However, targeted vaccination and the optimization of preexisting immunity among deployed populations can decrease the threat of outbreaks among deployed troops. Here we describe methods for the computational modeling of disease transmission to explore how preexisting immunity compares with vaccination at the time of deployment as a means of preventing outbreaks and protecting troops and mission objectives during extended military deployment actions. These methods are illustrated with five modeling case studies for separate diseases common in many parts of the world, to show different approaches required in varying epidemiological settings.

Computational Modeling of Interventions and Protective Thresholds to Prevent Disease Transmission in Deploying Populations

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Colleen Burgess

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Military personnel are deployed abroad for missions ranging from humanitarian relief efforts to combat actions; delay or interruption in these activities due to disease transmission can cause operational disruptions, significant economic loss, and stressed or exceeded military medical resources. Deployed troops function in environments favorable to the rapid and efficient transmission of many viruses particularly when levels of protection are suboptimal. When immunity among deployed military populations is low, the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks increases, impacting troop readiness and achievement of mission objectives. However, targeted vaccination and the optimization of preexisting immunity among deployed populations can decrease the threat of outbreaks among deployed troops. Here we describe methods for the computational modeling of disease transmission to explore how preexisting immunity compares with vaccination at the time of deployment as a means of preventing outbreaks and protecting troops and mission objectives during extended military deployment actions. These methods are illustrated with five modeling case studies for separate diseases common in many parts of the world, to show different approaches required in varying epidemiological settings.

Epidemiology of Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayeux, Richard; Stern, Yaakov

2012-08-01

The global prevalence of dementia has been estimated to be as high as 24 million, and is predicted to double every 20 years until at least 2040. As the population worldwide continues to age, the number of individuals at risk will also increase, particularly among the very old. Alzheimer disease is the leading cause of dementia beginning with impaired memory. The neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer disease include diffuse and neuritic extracellular amyloid plaques in brain that are frequently surrounded by dystrophic neurites and intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles. The etiology of Alzheimer disease remains unclear, but it is likely to be the result of both genetic and environmental factors. In this review we discuss the prevalence and incidence rates, the established environmental risk factors, and the protective factors, and briefly review genetic variants predisposing to disease.

a Novel Approach to Veterinary Spatial Epidemiology: Dasymetric Refinement of the Swiss Dog Tumor Registry Data

Science.gov (United States)

Boo, G.; Fabrikant, S. I.; Leyk, S.

2015-08-01

In spatial epidemiology, disease incidence and demographic data are commonly summarized within larger regions such as administrative units because of privacy concerns. As a consequence, analyses using these aggregated data are subject to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) as the geographical manifestation of ecological fallacy. In this study, we create small area disease estimates through dasymetric refinement, and investigate the effects on predictive epidemiological models. We perform a binary dasymetric refinement of municipality-aggregated dog tumor incidence counts in Switzerland for the year 2008 using residential land as a limiting ancillary variable. This refinement is expected to improve the quality of spatial data originally aggregated within arbitrary administrative units by deconstructing them into discontinuous subregions that better reflect the underlying population distribution. To shed light on effects of this refinement, we compare a predictive statistical model that uses unrefined administrative units with one that uses dasymetrically refined spatial units. Model diagnostics and spatial distributions of model residuals are assessed to evaluate the model performances in different regions. In particular, we explore changes in the spatial autocorrelation of the model residuals due to spatial refinement of the enumeration units in a selected mountainous region, where the rugged topography induces great shifts of the analytical units i.e., residential land. Such spatial data quality refinement results in a more realistic estimation of the population distribution within administrative units, and thus, in a more accurate modeling of dog tumor incidence patterns. Our results emphasize the benefits of implementing a dasymetric modeling framework in veterinary spatial epidemiology.

Molecular Epidemiology of Bovine Tuberculosis and most Common ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Even though tuberculosis is endemic in Nigeria, information on the epidemiology of the disease especially bovine tuberculosis is still very scanty. Variable Number of Tandem Repeat (VNTR) was carried out on 113 tissue samples to have an idea of not only the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis but also the most common ...

Diabetes Mellitus Induces Alzheimer’s Disease Pathology: Histopathological Evidence from Animal Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nobuyuki Kimura

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD is the major causative disease of dementia and is characterized pathologically by the accumulation of senile plaques (SPs and neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs in the brain. Although genetic studies show that β-amyloid protein (Aβ, the major component of SPs, is the key factor underlying AD pathogenesis, it remains unclear why advanced age often leads to AD. Interestingly, several epidemiological and clinical studies show that type II diabetes mellitus (DM patients are more likely to exhibit increased susceptibility to AD. Moreover, growing evidence suggests that there are several connections between the neuropathology that underlies AD and DM, and there is evidence that the experimental induction of DM can cause cognitive dysfunction, even in rodent animal models. This mini-review summarizes histopathological evidence that DM induces AD pathology in animal models and discusses the possibility that aberrant insulin signaling is a key factor in the induction of AD pathology.

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve-Based Prediction Model for Periodontal Disease Updated With the Calibrated Community Periodontal Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Chiu-Wen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Lai, Hongmin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng

2017-12-01

The accuracy of a prediction model for periodontal disease using the community periodontal index (CPI) has been undertaken by using an area under a receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. How the uncalibrated CPI, as measured by general dentists trained by periodontists in a large epidemiologic study, and affects the performance in a prediction model, has not been researched yet. A two-stage design was conducted by first proposing a validation study to calibrate CPI between a senior periodontal specialist and trained general dentists who measured CPIs in the main study of a nationwide survey. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was applied to estimate the non-updated and updated clinical weights used for building up risk scores. How the calibrated CPI affected performance of the updated prediction model was quantified by comparing AUROC curves between the original and updated models. Estimates regarding calibration of CPI obtained from the validation study were 66% and 85% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. After updating, clinical weights of each predictor were inflated, and the risk score for the highest risk category was elevated from 434 to 630. Such an update improved the AUROC performance of the two corresponding prediction models from 62.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.7% to 63.6%) for the non-updated model to 68.9% (95% CI: 68.0% to 69.6%) for the updated one, reaching a statistically significant difference (P prediction model was demonstrated for periodontal disease as measured by the calibrated CPI derived from a large epidemiologic survey.

WIN EPISCOPE 2.0: improved epidemiological software for veterinary medicine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thrusfield, M.; Ortega, C.; Blas, de I.; Noordhuizen, J.P.; Frankena, K.

2001-01-01

Recent changes in veterinary medicine have required quantitative epidemiological techniques for designing field surveys, identifying risk factors for multifactorial diseases, and assessing diagnostic tests. Several relevant techniques are brought together in the package of veterinary epidemiological

Epidemiology of Alzheimer Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Mayeux, Richard; Stern, Yaakov

2012-01-01

The global prevalence of dementia has been estimated to be as high as 24 million, and is predicted to double every 20 years until at least 2040. As the population worldwide continues to age, the number of individuals at risk will also increase, particularly among the very old. Alzheimer disease is the leading cause of dementia beginning with impaired memory. The neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer disease include diffuse and neuritic extracellular amyloid plaques in brain that are frequently surrounded by dystrophic neurites and intraneuronal neurofibrillary tangles. The etiology of Alzheimer disease remains unclear, but it is likely to be the result of both genetic and environmental factors. In this review we discuss the prevalence and incidence rates, the established environmental risk factors, and the protective factors, and briefly review genetic variants predisposing to disease. PMID:22908189

Incidence, risk factors and clinical epidemiology of melioidosis: a complex socio-ecological emerging infectious disease in the Alor Setar region of Kedah, Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijayalakshmi Natesan

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Melioidosis, a severe and fatal infectious disease caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is believed to an emerging global threat. However, data on the natural history, risk factors, and geographic epidemiology of the disease are still limited. Methods We undertook a retrospective analysis of 145 confirmed cases extracted from a hospital-based Melioidosis Registry set up from 2005 in Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah, Alor Setar, Kedah state, Malaysia, in order to provide a first description of the contemporary incidence, risk factors, and clinical epidemiology of the disease in this putatively high risk region of the country. Results The incidence of melioidosis in Alor Setar is remarkably high at 16.35 per 100,000 population per year. The mean age of patients was 50.40 years, with infection varying nonlinearly with age. Males (75.2%; P 2 = 30.57, P Conclusions Melioidosis represents a complex socio-ecological public health problem in Kedah, being strongly related with age, occupation, rainfall and predisposing chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus. Among cases, bacteremic patients were associated with significantly high mortality despite provision of the recommended antibacterial therapy. The burden of this disease is likely to grow in this region unless better informed interventions targeted at high-risk groups and associated diseases are urgently implemented.

Epidemiology and treatment of extramammary Paget disease in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Siesling, S; Elferink, M A G; van Dijck, J A A M; Pierie, J P E N; Blokx, W A M

2007-10-01

To determine the incidence of EMPD and to describe its epidemiology, treatment, survival and the risk of developing other malignancies. All cases of EMPD, diagnosed between 1989 and 2001, were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. In total, 178 cases of invasive and 48 cases of in situ EMPD had been registered. The overall relative 5-year survival for invasive tumours was 72%. Most patients with invasive as well as in situ cancer underwent surgery. Other malignancies were found in 32% of patients with invasive EMPD and 35% of patients with in situ EMPD. Patients had an increased risk of developing a second primary cancer (standardized incidence ratio: 1.7; 95% confidence interval 1.2-2.4). The most frequent localizations of the other cancers were the colorectum, the prostate, the breast and the extragenital skin. For EMPD, which is a rare disease in the Netherlands, there are no clear diagnostic and treatment guidelines. The prognosis is fairly good. A thorough search for other tumours is recommended for these patients.

SIS epidemiological model for adaptive RT: Forecasting the parotid glands shrinkage during tomotherapy treatment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maffei, Nicola; Guidi, Gabriele, E-mail: guidi.gabriele@policlinico.mo.it; Ciarmatori, Alberto [Medical Physics Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena, Modena 41124, Italy and Physics Department, University of Bologna, Bologna 40126 (Italy); Vecchi, Claudio; Baldazzi, Giuseppe [Physics Department, University of Bologna, Bologna 40126 (Italy); Gottardi, Giovanni; Costi, Tiziana [Medical Physics Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena, Modena 41124 (Italy); Meduri, Bruno; D’Angelo, Elisa; Bruni, Alessio; Mazzeo, Ercole; Pratissoli, Silvia; Giacobazzi, Patrizia; Lohr, Frank [Radiation Oncology Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena, Modena 41124 (Italy)

2016-07-15

Purpose: A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model was applied to radiation therapy (RT) treatments to predict morphological variations in head and neck (H&N) anatomy. Methods: 360 daily MVCT images of 12 H&N patients treated by tomotherapy were analyzed in this retrospective study. Deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms, mesh grids, and structure recontouring, implemented in the RayStation treatment planning system (TPS), were applied to assess the daily organ warping. The parotid’s warping was evaluated using the epidemiological approach considering each vertex as a single subject and its deformed vector field (DVF) as an infection. Dedicated IronPython scripts were developed to export daily coordinates and displacements of the region of interest (ROI) from the TPS. MATLAB tools were implemented to simulate the SIS modeling. Finally, the fully trained model was applied to a new patient. Results: A QUASAR phantom was used to validate the model. The patients’ validation was obtained setting 0.4 cm of vertex displacement as threshold and splitting susceptible (S) and infectious (I) cases. The correlation between the epidemiological model and the parotids’ trend for further optimization of alpha and beta was carried out by Euclidean and dynamic time warping (DTW) distances. The best fit with experimental conditions across all patients (Euclidean distance of 4.09 ± 1.12 and DTW distance of 2.39 ± 0.66) was obtained setting the contact rate at 7.55 ± 0.69 and the recovery rate at 2.45 ± 0.26; birth rate was disregarded in this constant population. Conclusions: Combining an epidemiological model with adaptive RT (ART), the authors’ novel approach could support image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) to validate daily setup and to forecast anatomical variations. The SIS-ART model developed could support clinical decisions in order to optimize timing of replanning achieving personalized treatments.

SIS epidemiological model for adaptive RT: Forecasting the parotid glands shrinkage during tomotherapy treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maffei, Nicola; Guidi, Gabriele; Ciarmatori, Alberto; Vecchi, Claudio; Baldazzi, Giuseppe; Gottardi, Giovanni; Costi, Tiziana; Meduri, Bruno; D’Angelo, Elisa; Bruni, Alessio; Mazzeo, Ercole; Pratissoli, Silvia; Giacobazzi, Patrizia; Lohr, Frank

2016-01-01

Purpose: A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model was applied to radiation therapy (RT) treatments to predict morphological variations in head and neck (H&N) anatomy. Methods: 360 daily MVCT images of 12 H&N patients treated by tomotherapy were analyzed in this retrospective study. Deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms, mesh grids, and structure recontouring, implemented in the RayStation treatment planning system (TPS), were applied to assess the daily organ warping. The parotid’s warping was evaluated using the epidemiological approach considering each vertex as a single subject and its deformed vector field (DVF) as an infection. Dedicated IronPython scripts were developed to export daily coordinates and displacements of the region of interest (ROI) from the TPS. MATLAB tools were implemented to simulate the SIS modeling. Finally, the fully trained model was applied to a new patient. Results: A QUASAR phantom was used to validate the model. The patients’ validation was obtained setting 0.4 cm of vertex displacement as threshold and splitting susceptible (S) and infectious (I) cases. The correlation between the epidemiological model and the parotids’ trend for further optimization of alpha and beta was carried out by Euclidean and dynamic time warping (DTW) distances. The best fit with experimental conditions across all patients (Euclidean distance of 4.09 ± 1.12 and DTW distance of 2.39 ± 0.66) was obtained setting the contact rate at 7.55 ± 0.69 and the recovery rate at 2.45 ± 0.26; birth rate was disregarded in this constant population. Conclusions: Combining an epidemiological model with adaptive RT (ART), the authors’ novel approach could support image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) to validate daily setup and to forecast anatomical variations. The SIS-ART model developed could support clinical decisions in order to optimize timing of replanning achieving personalized treatments.

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

Leptospirosis in Mexico: Epidemiology and Potential Distribution of Human Cases

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Montes, Sokani; Espinosa-Martínez, Deborah V.; Ríos-Muñoz, César A.; Berzunza-Cruz, Miriam; Becker, Ingeborg

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings We analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000–2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25–44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates. Conclusions/Significance In conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease. PMID:26207827

Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-12-01

Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cécile Aenishaenslin

Full Text Available Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or

Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

2015-01-01

Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

Epidemiology of systemic mastocytosis in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cohen, Sarah; Hoffmann, Stine Skovbo; Vestergaard, Hanne

2014-01-01

Mastocytosis is a heterogeneous group of diseases characterized by abnormal proliferation of mast cells. Systemic mastocytosis (SM), in which abnormal mast cells are present in tissues beyond the skin, is divided into seven subcategories with varying degrees of severity and prognosis. Very little......%), followed by SM with subtype unknown (n = 61; 11%), SM with associated clonal haematological non-mast cell lineage disease (n = 24; 4%), aggressive SM (n = 8; 2%), and mast cell leukaemia (n = 5; 1%). The incidence rate for SM (all subtypes including urticaria pigmentosa) was 0_89 per 100 000 per year...... to be overall relatively rare with notable variation by subtype for patient characteristics, survival and epidemiological measures. Keywords: aggressive systemic mastocytosis, indolent systemic mastocytosis, urticaria pigmentosa, epidemiology, Denmark....

An epidemiological model of virus transmission in salmonid fishes of the Columbia River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, Paige F. B.; Breyta, Rachel; Brito, Ilana L.; Kurath, Gael; LaDeau, Shannon L.

2018-01-01

We have developed a dynamic epidemiological model informed by records of viral presence and genotypes to evaluate potential transmission routes maintaining a viral pathogen in economically and culturally important anadromous fish populations. In the Columbia River Basin, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) causes severe disease, predominantly in juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and less frequently in Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Mortality events following IHNV infection can be devastating for individual hatchery programs. Despite reports of high local mortality and extensive surveillance efforts, there are questions about how viral transmission is maintained. Modeling this system offers important insights into disease transmission in natural aquatic systems, as well as about the data requirements for generating accurate estimates about transmission routes and infection probabilities. We simulated six scenarios in which testing rates and the relative importance of different transmission routes varied. The simulations demonstrated that the model accurately identified routes of transmission and inferred infection probabilities accurately when there was testing of all cohort-sites. When testing records were incomplete, the model accurately inferred which transmission routes exposed particular cohort-sites but generated biased infection probabilities given exposure. After validating the model and generating guidelines for result interpretation, we applied the model to data from 14 annual cohorts (2000–2013) at 24 focal sites in a sub-region of the Columbia River Basin, the lower Columbia River (LCR), to quantify the relative importance of potential transmission routes in this focal sub-region. We demonstrate that exposure to IHNV via the return migration of adult fish is an important route for maintaining IHNV in the LCR sub-region, and the probability of infection following this exposure was relatively high at 0.16. Although only 1% of

Epidemiology of Epidemic Ebola Virus Disease in Conakry and Surrounding Prefectures, Guinea, 2014–2015

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Debra; Coronado, Fátima; Rondy, Marc; Fiebig, Lena; Carcelen, Andrea; Deyde, Varough M.; Mesfin, Samuel; Retzer, Kyla D.; Bilivogui, Pepe; Keita, Sakoba; Dahl, Benjamin A.

2016-01-01

In 2014, Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was first reported during March in 3 southeastern prefectures in Guinea; from there, the disease rapidly spread across West Africa. We describe the epidemiology of EVD cases reported in Guinea’s capital, Conakry, and 4 surrounding prefectures (Coyah, Dubreka, Forecariah, and Kindia), encompassing a full year of the epidemic. A total of 1,355 EVD cases, representing ≈40% of cases reported in Guinea, originated from these areas. Overall, Forecariah had the highest cumulative incidence (4× higher than that in Conakry). Case-fatality percentage ranged from 40% in Conakry to 60% in Kindia. Cumulative incidence was slightly higher among male than female residents, although incidences by prefecture and commune differed by sex. Over the course of the year, Conakry and neighboring prefectures became the EVD epicenter in Guinea. PMID:26812047

Epidemiology of disorders and distortion of the internal picture of disease in patients with macrosocial disadjustments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Vladimirovich Potapov

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the results of an investigation of 569 patients with macrosocial disadjustments. The latter were diagnosed in 71.1% of the examinees from a sample of 800 people from different socially disadapted population groups (unemployed miners, police officers on 6-month business to Chechnya, and migrants. The epidemiological and syndrome characteristics and the results of examining some aspects of the internal picture of disease, such as protective mechanisms, coping strategies, and aggravational and dissimulative tendencies, are given.

The epidemiology of endometriosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cramer, Daniel W; Missmer, Stacey A

2002-03-01

Advances in understanding the epidemiology of endometriosis have lagged behind other diseases because of methodologic problems related to disease definition and control selection. Nevertheless, a better picture of the epidemiology of endometriosis has emerged over the past few decades. Prevalence estimates of the disease in clinic populations vary from about a 4% occurrence of largely asymptomatic endometriosis found in women undergoing tubal ligation to 50% of teenagers with intractable dysmenorrhea. General population incidence during the 1970s in this country has been suggested to be 1.6 per 1000 white females aged 15-49, while a more current study based upon hospital discharges finds endometriosis as a first listed diagnosis in 1.3 per 1000 discharges in women aged 15-44. There is a clinical impression that blacks have lower rates of endometriosis and Orientals have higher rates than whites. A variety of personal risk factors for endometriosis have also been described. Women with endometriosis may be taller and thinner. Menstrual factors reported to increase risk include dysmenorrhea, early menarche, and shorter cycle lengths. There is support for the idea that lifestyle exposures that might raise or lower estrogen levels could affect risk, including a decreased risk associated with smoking and exercise and an increased risk associated with caffeine or alcohol use. These risk factors appear to be compatible with the central importance of retrograde menstruation influenced by outflow obstruction that might affect its amount, immune factors that might affect its ability to be cleared, or hormonal stimuli that might affect its growth. In this model, dysmenorrhea could be either a disease symptom or a manifestation of outflow obstruction. Nulliparity could be either a consequence of disease or a cause since nulliparous women would not have the benefit of cervical dilation associated with labor and delivery. Since there is evidence that family history is a risk

Population-Based Study of the Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster in Korea

OpenAIRE

Kim, You Jeong; Lee, Chang Nam; Lim, Chi-Yeon; Jeon, Woo Seok; Park, Young Min

2014-01-01

General epidemiological data regarding herpes zoster (HZ) are necessary for treatment and prevention of this disease. In addition, epidemiological data can play an important role in evaluating the efficacy and impact of vaccination. Though several epidemiological studies of HZ in Korea have been conducted, they usually depend on hospital-based data and may not be representative of HZ characteristics all over Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the incidence and other epidemiologi...

Incidence, epidemiology and clinical features of Kawasaki disease in Catalonia, Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Manubens, Judith; Antón, Jordi; Bou, Rosa; Iglesias, Estíbaliz; Calzada-Hernandez, Joan

2016-01-01

To assess the incidence, epidemiology and clinical features of Kawasaki disease (KD) in Catalonia (northeast region of Spain). This was an observational population-based study including all Paediatric Units in Catalonia, under both public and private management. Retrospective data retrieval was performed for 10 years (2004-2013). A 12-month (March 2013 to March 2014) prospective collection of new cases of KD was carried out to determine the incidence of KD. Data from 399 patients over the 10-year study period was analysed, revealing that 233 (58.4%) had complete KD, 159 (39.8) incomplete KD and 7 (1.7%) were considered atypical KD. Mean annual incidence was 3.5/105 children 10(th) day of illness, ages 8 yo and the presence of sterile piuria, aseptic meningitis, abdominal pain and uveitis at diagnosis were found to have higher risk of coronary aneurisms (CAA) (pIncidence, clinical features and treatment plans in our cohort are similar to those described in other European studies.

epidemix—An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrich Muellner

2018-06-01

-specialists – including policy makers, public and animal health professionals and students – and wishing to develop hands-on practicals illustrating key concepts of disease dynamics and control. Keywords: Mathematical modelling, Epidemiology, Infectious disease, Application software, Disease dynamics, Teaching

Epidemiology of chlamydial infection and disease in a free-ranging koala (Phascolarctos cinereus population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sharon Nyari

Full Text Available Chlamydial disease continues to be one of the main factors threatening the long-term survival of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus. Despite this, large epidemiological studies of chlamydial infection and disease in wild koala populations are lacking. A better understanding of the prevalence, transmission and pathogenesis is needed to improve control measures, such as the development of vaccines. We investigated the prevalence of Chlamydia pecorum infection and disease in 160 koalas in a peri-urban wild population in Queensland, Australia and found that 31% of koalas were Chlamydia PCR positive and 28% had clinically detectable chlamydial disease. Most infections were at the urogenital site (27%; both males and females with only 14% at the ocular site. Interestingly, we found that 27% (4/15 of koalas considered to be sexually immature (9-13 months were already infected with C. pecorum, suggesting that a significant percentage of animals are infected directly from their mother. Ocular infection levels were less prevalent with increasing age (8% in koalas older than 4 years, whereas the prevalence of urogenital tract infections remained high into older age (26% in koalas older than 4 years, suggesting that, after mother-to-young transmission, C. pecorum is predominantly a sexually transmitted infection. While 28% of koalas in this population had clinically detectable chlamydial disease (primarily urogenital tract disease, many PCR positive koalas had no detectable disease and importantly, not all diseased animals were PCR positive. We also observed higher chlamydial loads in koalas who were C. pecorum infected without clinical disease than in koalas who were C. pecorum infected with clinical disease. These results shed light on the potential mechanisms of transmission of C. pecorum in koalas and also guide future control measures, such as vaccination.

Epidemiology of chlamydial infection and disease in a free-ranging koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyari, Sharon; Waugh, Courtney A; Dong, Jianbao; Quigley, Bonnie L; Hanger, Jonathan; Loader, Joanne; Polkinghorne, Adam; Timms, Peter

2017-01-01

Chlamydial disease continues to be one of the main factors threatening the long-term survival of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus). Despite this, large epidemiological studies of chlamydial infection and disease in wild koala populations are lacking. A better understanding of the prevalence, transmission and pathogenesis is needed to improve control measures, such as the development of vaccines. We investigated the prevalence of Chlamydia pecorum infection and disease in 160 koalas in a peri-urban wild population in Queensland, Australia and found that 31% of koalas were Chlamydia PCR positive and 28% had clinically detectable chlamydial disease. Most infections were at the urogenital site (27%; both males and females) with only 14% at the ocular site. Interestingly, we found that 27% (4/15) of koalas considered to be sexually immature (9-13 months) were already infected with C. pecorum, suggesting that a significant percentage of animals are infected directly from their mother. Ocular infection levels were less prevalent with increasing age (8% in koalas older than 4 years), whereas the prevalence of urogenital tract infections remained high into older age (26% in koalas older than 4 years), suggesting that, after mother-to-young transmission, C. pecorum is predominantly a sexually transmitted infection. While 28% of koalas in this population had clinically detectable chlamydial disease (primarily urogenital tract disease), many PCR positive koalas had no detectable disease and importantly, not all diseased animals were PCR positive. We also observed higher chlamydial loads in koalas who were C. pecorum infected without clinical disease than in koalas who were C. pecorum infected with clinical disease. These results shed light on the potential mechanisms of transmission of C. pecorum in koalas and also guide future control measures, such as vaccination.

[Psychosocial factors at work and cardiovascular diseases: contribution of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model].

Science.gov (United States)

Niedhammer, I; Siegrist, J

1998-11-01

The effect of psychosocial factors at work on health, especially cardiovascular health, has given rise to growing concern in occupational epidemiology over the last few years. Two theoretical models, Karasek's model and the Effort-Reward Imbalance model, have been developed to evaluate psychosocial factors at work within specific conceptual frameworks in an attempt to take into account the serious methodological difficulties inherent in the evaluation of such factors. Karasek's model, the most widely used model, measures three factors: psychological demands, decision latitude and social support at work. Many studies have shown the predictive effects of these factors on cardiovascular diseases independently of well-known cardiovascular risk factors. More recently, the Effort-Reward Imbalance model takes into account the role of individual coping characteristics which was neglected in the Karasek model. The effort-reward imbalance model focuses on the reciprocity of exchange in occupational life where high-cost/low-gain conditions are considered particularly stressful. Three dimensions of rewards are distinguished: money, esteem and gratifications in terms of promotion prospects and job security. Some studies already support that high-effort/low reward-conditions are predictive of cardiovascular diseases.

TFOS DEWS II Epidemiology Report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stapleton, Fiona; Alves, Monica; Bunya, Vatinee Y.; Jalbert, Isabelle; Lekhanont, Kaevalin; Malet, Florence; Na, Kyung-Sun; Schaumberg, Debra; Uchino, Miki; Vehof, Jelle; Viso, Eloy; Vitale, Susan; Jones, Lyndon

The subcommittee reviewed the prevalence, incidence, risk factors, natural history, morbidity and questionnaires reported in epidemiological studies of dry eye disease (DED). A meta-analysis of published prevalence data estimated the impact of age and sex. Global mapping of prevalence was

The science of epidemiology and the methods needed for public health assessments: a review of epidemiology textbooks.

Science.gov (United States)

Gouda, Hebe N; Powles, John W

2014-02-10

Epidemiology is often described as 'the science of public health'. Here we aim to assess the extent that epidemiological methods, as covered in contemporary standard textbooks, provide tools that can assess the relative magnitude of public health problems and can be used to help rank and assess public health priorities. Narrative literature review. Thirty textbooks were grouped into three categories; pure, extended or applied epidemiology, were reviewed with attention to the ways the discipline is characterised and the nature of the analytical methods described. Pure texts tend to present a strict hierarchy of methods with those metrics deemed to best serve aetiological inquiry at the top. Extended and applied texts employ broader definitions of epidemiology but in most cases, the metrics described are also those used in aetiological inquiry and may not be optimal for capturing the consequences and social importance of injuries and disease onsets. The primary scientific purpose of epidemiology, even amongst 'applied' textbooks, is aetiological inquiry. Authors do not readily extend to methods suitable for assessing public health problems and priorities.

Epidemiology of Infectious Disease-Related Death After Release from Prison, Washington State, United States, and Queensland, Australia: A Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Binswanger, Ingrid A; Blatchford, Patrick J; Forsyth, Simon J; Stern, Marc F; Kinner, Stuart A

2016-01-01

People in prison may be at high risk for infectious diseases and have an elevated risk of death immediately after release compared with later; their risk of death is elevated for at least a decade after release. We compared rates, characteristics, and prison-related risk factors for infectious disease-related mortality among people released from prisons in Queensland, Australia, and Washington State, United States, regions with analogous available data. We analyzed data from retrospective cohort studies of people released from prison in Queensland (1997-2007, n=37,180) and Washington State (1999-2009, n=76,208) and linked identifiers from each cohort to its respective national death index. We estimated infectious disease-related mortality rates (deaths per person-years in community) and examined associations using Cox proportional hazard models. The most frequent infectious disease-related underlying cause of death after release from prison was pneumonia (43%, 23/54 deaths) in the Australian cohort and viral hepatitis (40%, 69/171 deaths) in the U.S. cohort. The infectious disease-related mortality rate was significantly higher in the U.S. cohort than in the Australian cohort (51.2 vs. 26.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years; incidence rate ratio = 1.93, 95% confidence interval 1.42, 2.62). In both cohorts, increasing age was strongly associated with mortality from infectious diseases. Differences in the epidemiology of infectious disease-related mortality among people released from prison may reflect differences in patterns of community health service delivery in each region. These findings highlight the importance of preventing and treating hepatitis C and other infectious diseases during the transition from prison to the community.

Epidemiological Study of Huntington's Disease in the Province of Ferrara, Italy.